Economics

  • Most Topular Stories

  • Earlier: Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 281,000

    Calculated Risk
    Bill McBride
    2 Jul 2015 | 5:24 pm
    A quick graph of unemployment claims ... Note: Starting with this release, the DOL is including a table of unadjusted State-level "advance"claims.The DOL reported:In the week ending June 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 281,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 271,000. The 4-week moving average was 274,750, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 273,750.There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. The previous week was unrevised.The following graph shows the 4-week moving…
  • No, Puerto Rico Isn’t Greece

    Paul Krugman
    By Paul Krugman
    4 Jul 2015 | 1:15 pm
    Pain, but not on remotely the same scale.
  • The Entrepreneurial Method

    Principles of Economics and Business
    28 May 2015 | 5:06 am
    There are thousands of new companies founded every year all around the world. Most of them fail within the first five years of operation. However, there are a few extremely successful ventures that become incredibly valuable in a short period of time.Hence, we have asked ourselves: What does it take to be a successful entrepreneur. Why are some successful while most others fail. And how can we increase the chances of becoming successful entrepreneurs?Fortunately enough, scientists have already done quite a lot of research on this. One concept that stands out is what we call…
  • What Type of Entrepreneur Are You?

    Principles of Economics and Business
    30 Jun 2015 | 6:17 am
    There is no such thing as the stereotypical entrepreneur. Even though there are some traits that most entrepreneurs may have in common (e.g. persistence, dedication), we can find a wide variety of different personality types among them. To provide a simple overview we will try to classify these types into several groups. This will also allow you to find out what kind of entrepreneur you are.Now, to make this distinction we will need two dimensions. The first one is whether or not entrepreneurs are trying to predict the future. This is important because it significantly affects their…
  • Greece

    interfluidity
    Steve Randy Waldman
    3 Jul 2015 | 6:25 pm
    Greece is a remarkable country full of wonderful people, but along dimensions of development and governance, the place is plainly pretty fucked up. It has been fucked up that way for a long time, for decades at least. This has never been secret. Anyone who has visited Athens knows it has far more in common with Bucharest or Istanbul than with orderly Western European capitals. In the run up to Greece’s joining the Euro, everyone who wanted to know knew that Greece’s qualifications to join the Eurozone were, shall we say, ambitious. Mainstream establishment banks…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Real Time Economics

  • Greece’s Debt – The Numbers

    Ian Talley
    3 Jul 2015 | 3:46 am
    Key numbers from a report on Greek debt as the country faces a critical referendum.
  • ECB Has the Tools To Deal with Greek Vote Result, Says Vice-President

    Liis Kangsepp
    3 Jul 2015 | 3:43 am
    Vitor Constancio in Riga earlier this year. He said in Vilnius on Friday that it was difficult to speculate on Greece “no” vote scenarios. Associated Press VILNIUS, Lithuania—The European Central Bank has the tools to deal with any situation that may emerge from Greece’s looming referendum, the bank’s vice-president Vitor Constancio said on Friday, although he declined to speculate how a “no” vote could affect the eurozone or the ECB’s lending facilities for Greece. Greek citizens are due to vote Sunday on whether to accept or reject economic and fiscal policy demands set out…
  • Central Banks Must Remain Focused While Rates Are Low, Says Lithuanian Central Bank Governor

    Liis Kängsepp
    3 Jul 2015 | 12:35 am
    Vitas Vasiliauskas, governor of Lithuania’s central bank, in Vilnius last year. Bloomberg News VILNIUS, Lithuania—Central banks must remain focused while interest rates are low and be prepared to help creditors estimate loan repayment capacity in a prudent way when rates go up again, a member of the European Central Bank’s governing council said on Friday. “We are determined not to lose direction. Especially now, when the prevailing environment of particularly low interest rates requires special vigilance,” Lithuanian central bank governor Vitas Vasiliauskas said at a conference…
  • 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

    Kathleen Madigan
    2 Jul 2015 | 11:44 am
    If the past week brought a flood of data—including a mixed report on June labor markets—this one's as dry as a California reservoir. As Greece remains the focus for investors, here's what to look for on the U.S. economy.
  • ECB Adds State-Backed Agency Bonds to Its Purchase Program

    Todd Buell
    2 Jul 2015 | 8:54 am
    The headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt. ZUMA PRESS The European Central Bank on Thursday increased the number of government-backed agencies whose securities it buys as part of its €1.1 trillion ($1.22 trillion) asset purchase program, a move that analysts said underscores the ECB’s ability to react quickly if contagion from Greece threatens European financial markets and the economy. The ECB added 13 new, mostly infrastructure-related agencies to the list of issuers whose bonds it can buy in its bond buying program—known as quantitative easing or QE—bringing the…
 
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Alpha.Sources

  • Did A Butterfly Flap Its Wings In Corporate Bond Markets Last Week?

    CV
    20 Jun 2015 | 4:00 pm
    In this podcast I continue to discussion from last week on corporate bond market bubbles and liquidity, what the risks are, and how worried we should be. I take my point of departure in the decision, last week, by Aberdeen Asset Management to set up a $500M credit line, as a precaution, to fund redemptions from its bond funds. I also give a brief overview, in numbers, of the increase non-financial corporate bonds outstanding since 2007*.  Articles quoted/used: The FT Jun 15th 2015, David Oakley - Aberdeen takes safety measures against risk of bonds sell-off The FT Jun 18th 2015,…
  • Stretching monetary policy divergence to an extreme?

    CV
    14 Jun 2015 | 3:42 am
    In this podcast I discuss the durability of monetary policy divergence between the Fed and, increasingly, the rest of the world. How far can this story be stretched, what narrative will win in the tug-of-war between hawks and doves. Unfortunately, I think it could turn out to be former. Finally, I discuss the case of the evaporating liquidity in bond markets, and why it matters. 
  • To Default or not to Default

    CV
    5 Apr 2015 | 6:02 am
    With apologies to Shakespeare.  {Dawn, Yannis Varoufakis is roaming the Akropolis}  To default or not to default, that is the question. Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer The slings and arrows of outrageous demands Or to take arms against a legion of creditors And, by opposing, end them? To stay, to oppose— No more—and by opposing to say we end The heartache and the thousand cuts That the euro and debt is heir to—’tis a consummation Devoutly to be wished! To stay, to oppose. To oppose, perchance to extend—ay, there’s the rub, For in…
  • QE and population ageing as macroeconomic externalities

    CV
    23 Mar 2015 | 12:30 am
    This discussion of market failures and externalities is mostly a microeconomic discussion. Students will tend to encounter it, in the context of the classic case of the polluting industrial company whose marginal private cost, or supply, curve is not the same as the marginal social cost curve. A firm which dumps toxic waste in a river does not bear the full cost of such actions; society also faces a costs even if this is not taken into account in the firm's profit maximization problem. The solution according to the welfare theorems is for the social planner, the government, to tax the company…
  • Regulative Mission Creep?

    CV
    8 Feb 2015 | 11:00 pm
    The financial sector has been regulated and fined into submission following the crisis, but the equity research team at Credit Suisse had a rebellious thought this weekend. In a piece extolling the virtues of dividend stocks, they postulate the following development: As bond yields fall to zero, duration matching for pension funds and insurance companies becomes nearly impossible and, consequently, we believe there will be significant pressure on regulators to allow higher equity weightings. On the global equity strategy team, we see a scenario where pension funds and insurance companies are…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The American Prospect

  • With Gawker Successfully Unionized, Is Salon Next?

    Justin Miller
    3 Jul 2015 | 3:04 pm
    Everett Historical/Shutterstock The editorial staff for Salon Media, a progressive news and analysis outlet, unanimously announced in a letter today that they intend to unionize with the Writers Guild of America, East. “Every single one of the editorial employees at Salon supports unionizing with the Writers Guild of America, East, and today we’re asking the management of Salon to recognize our union,” the letter states. “We are doing this because we believe in our publication and want it to be successful. We’re especially proud to work for a media organization that has…
  • What Some Black Church Leaders Have Wrong About Gay Marriage -- and Civil Rights

    Nathalie Baptiste
    3 Jul 2015 | 12:30 pm
    (Photo: AP/Jacqueline Martin) On June 26, the U.S. Supreme Court declared that same-sex couples had a right to marry anywhere in the country. The African American church and its leadership have often been at the forefront of movements for equality. But the recent Supreme Court ruling on same-sex marriage has shed light on the resistance to social change among some black church leaders —and has left them sounding more like white conservative leaders. On June 26, the Court ruled that two consenting adults have the right to get married—even if they are the same gender. As conservatives…
  • Why Labor Law Should Stop Leaning So Hard on the Wagner Act

    Lane Windham
    2 Jul 2015 | 5:33 pm
    AP Photo/Mike Groll A fast-food worker raises her fist during a rally for a $15 an hour wage at the Empire State Plaza Concourse, Wednesday, April 15, 2015, in Albany, New York.  The Wagner Act turns 80 this week and it’s about time that we lessen the old man’s load. For too long, this legislation that was meant to encourage workplace democracy has actually shouldered much of the burden of our nation’s employer-centered social welfare state. It’s high time to get citizens’ health care, pensions and even guaranteed basic wages off its back, and to allow the Wagner Act to do its job:…
  • First Gawker, Now Salon Staffers Announce Plan to Unionize

    Justin Miller
    2 Jul 2015 | 11:36 am
    Everett Historical/Shutterstock The editorial staff for Salon Media, a progressive news and analysis outlet, unanimously announced in a letter today that they intend to unionize with the Writers Guild of America, East. “Every single one of the editorial employees at Salon supports unionizing with the Writers Guild of America, East, and today we’re asking the management of Salon to recognize our union,” the letter states. “We are doing this because we believe in our publication and want it to be successful. We’re especially proud to work for a media organization that has championed…
  • The EU's Future in the Wake of the Greek Crisis

    Arthur Goldhammer
    2 Jul 2015 | 8:57 am
    AP Photo/Daniel Ochoa de Olza A man sells Greek and European Union flags during a rally organized by supporters of the YES vote for the upcoming referendum in front of the Greek Parliament in Athens, Tuesday, June 30, 2015.  The endgame in the Greek crisis remains murky at this hour despite Alexis Tsipras’s apparent capitulation to the demands of Greece’s creditors: the so-called Troika or “Institutions” consisting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission (EC), and the European Central Bank (ECB). With surprise developments occurring daily if not hourly, it…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Robert Reich

  • How to Disrupt the Military-Industrial-Congressional Complex

    3 Jul 2015 | 12:47 pm
    President Obama is said to be considering an executive order requiring federal contractors to...
  • ON PATRIOTISMA few words about patriotism – something we...

    2 Jul 2015 | 1:41 pm
    ON PATRIOTISMA few words about patriotism – something we talk a lot about, especially around July 4th, but seldom stop to examine its real meaning. True patriotism isn’t simply about waving the American flag. And it’s not mostly about securing our borders from outsiders. It’s about coming together for the common good.Real patriotism is not cheap. It requires taking on a fair share of the burdens of keeping America going – being willing to pay taxes in full rather than seeking tax loopholes and squirreling away money abroad.  Patriotism is about preserving and protecting our…
  • OVERTIME: FINALLY, A BREAK FOR THE MIDDLE CLASSThe U.S....

    30 Jun 2015 | 11:32 am
    OVERTIME: FINALLY, A BREAK FOR THE MIDDLE CLASSThe U.S. Department of Labor just proposed raising the overtime threshold – what you can be paid and still qualify to be paid “time-and-a-half” beyond 40 hours per week – from $23,600 a year to $50,400.This is a big deal. Some 5 million workers will get a raise. (See accompanying video, which we made last month.) Business lobbies are already hollering this will kill jobs. That’s what they always predict – whether it’s raising the minimum wage, Obamacare, family and medical leave, or better worker safety. Yet their predictions…
  • Why We Must Fight Economic Apartheid in America

    28 Jun 2015 | 1:54 pm
    Almost lost by the wave of responses to the Supreme Court’s decisions last week upholding the...
  • #12. MOST IMPORTANT OF ALL: GET BIG MONEY OUT OF POLITICS Over...

    22 Jun 2015 | 8:28 pm
    #12. MOST IMPORTANT OF ALL: GET BIG MONEY OUT OF POLITICS Over the past two months, the videos I’ve done with MoveOn.org have detailed several ways to make the economy work for the many, not the few: raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, making public higher education free, busting up the big banks, expanding Social Security, making polluters pay, raising the estate tax, strengthening unions, ending corporate welfare, helping families succeed economically, and letting all Americans buy into Medicare.But none of these is possible if we don’t get big money out of politics. In fact,…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality

  • Links and Tweets

    J. Bradford DeLong
    5 Jul 2015 | 8:31 pm
    Links: Must-Read: Simon Wren-Lewis: The Ideologues of the Eurozone Duncan Wheldon: "Syriza has transformed from 'end austerity' to 'implement austerity in a left wing redistributionary way' to 'slightly tweak existing austerity'. That's quite a journey in a matter of weeks..." Joseph Cotterill: "It’s a Greek debt sustainability analysis by IMF staff... the frankest effort... so far to acknowledge the straits Greece is in regarding its debt to official creditors, and accordingly, their most radical proposal yet to euthanise large parts of…
  • Noted for Your Nighttime Procrastination for July 4, 2015

    J. Bradford DeLong
    4 Jul 2015 | 4:59 pm
    Must- and Should-Reads: Must-Read: Simon Wren-Lewis: The Ideologues of the Eurozone Paul de Grauwe: "Accepting that the (restructured) Greek debt is sustainable opens the door to both a softening of the austerity programme and to liquidity support of the Greek banking sector..." Duncan Wheldon: "Syriza has transformed from 'end austerity' to 'implement austerity in a left wing redistributionary way' to 'slightly tweak existing austerity'. That's quite a journey in a matter of weeks..." Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog Department…
  • Department of "HUH!? WTF!?!?": Greek Crisis Troika-Defending Ideologues Edition

    J. Bradford DeLong
    4 Jul 2015 | 4:37 pm
    Over at Equitable Growth: Angel Ubide writes: @mark_dow Good points.Sadly we'll never know if pre-Syriza growth sustainable. Bberg consensus thought so cc:@delong pic.twitter.com/QpQ1m4vcwN— Angel Ubide (@AngelUbide) July 4, 2015 Ummmm... "Pre-Syriza growth" would return Greek GDP to its 1975-1999 trend... never. "Pre-Syriza growth" was at a pace that would not return Greek real GDP to the 2007 level of the 1975-1999 trend (if you think that was Greece's "real" potential output in 2007) until... 2023. READ MOAR "Pre-Syriza growth" was at a pace that would not return Greek real GDP…
  • Weekend Reading: Arthur Goldhammer: The Old Continent Creaks

    J. Bradford DeLong
    4 Jul 2015 | 4:17 pm
    Arthur Goldhammer: The Old Continent Creaks: Austerity and the failures of the technocratic elite have created the current populist backlash. France’s experience is instructive—and, possibly, ominous: What’s the matter with Europe? Wherever one looks these days, there are signs of deep trouble. Economic growth has stagnated. Deflation threatens. Unemployment is rampant in many member states of the European Union. Support for the former mainstream parties of the center-right and center-left is waning. Populist parties of the far right and far left are on the rise. Anti-Islamic movements…
  • Liveblogging History: July 4, 1187: Battle of Hattin

    J. Bradford DeLong
    4 Jul 2015 | 4:10 pm
    Wikipedia: Battle of Hattin: The crusaders began their march from Sephoria on July 3.... By noon on that day, the Crusader army had reached a spring at the village of Tur'an some six miles (10 km) from La Saphorie. Here, according to Saladin, 'The hawks of the Frankish infantry and the eagle of their cavalry hovered around the water.' It was still nine miles (14 km) to Tiberias. Therefore, with only a half day of marching time remaining, any attempt to leave this sure water source to seek that objective the same day, all while under the constant attack of Saladin's army,…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Calculated Risk

  • Greece Sunday: δίλημμα

    Bill McBride
    4 Jul 2015 | 4:09 pm
    δίλημμα: Dilemma. There is no good choice on Sunday.Poor fiscal policies led to the need for a bailout. And the poorly designed bailout program has crushed the Greek economy. Now the creditors want more of the same, expecting a different result;  so voting "Yes" seems like the definition of insanity. But a "No" vote will mean complete chaos.From the WSJ: On Bailout Referendum’s Eve, Greeks Are Deeply Divided on Which Course to TakePolls have the two sides evenly balanced. There are no public data that break down the demographics and the inclinations of “yes” and “no,”…
  • Update: Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again

    Bill McBride
    4 Jul 2015 | 9:23 am
    An update: Last year, I posted some demographic data for the U.S., see: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age Group, Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate: Mostly Demographics and Long Term Trends, and The Future's so Bright ...I pointed out that "even without the financial crisis we would have expected some slowdown in growth this decade (just based on demographics). The good news is that will change soon."Changes in demographics are an important determinant of economic growth, and although most people focus on the aging of the "baby boomer"…
  • Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama

    Bill McBride
    3 Jul 2015 | 9:15 am
    By request, here is an update on an earlier post through the June employment report.NOTE: Several readers have asked if I could add a lag to these graphs (obviously a new President has zero impact on employment for the month they are elected). But that would open a debate on the proper length of the lag, so I'll just stick to the beginning of each term.Note: We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, or any other marker.Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was smaller in the '80s, however the…
  • Schedule for Week of July 5, 2015

    Bill McBride
    3 Jul 2015 | 5:11 am
    It feels like a Saturday ...The key report this coming week is the May Trade Deficit on Tuesday, and the June ISM non-manufacturing index on Monday.Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks on Friday on the U.S. Economic Outlook.----- Monday, July 6th -----10:00 AM ET: The Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI). 10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for index to decrease to 56.0 from 55.7 in May.----- Tuesday, July 7th -----8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for May from the Census Bureau. This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without…
  • Earlier: Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 281,000

    Bill McBride
    2 Jul 2015 | 5:24 pm
    A quick graph of unemployment claims ... Note: Starting with this release, the DOL is including a table of unadjusted State-level "advance"claims.The DOL reported:In the week ending June 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 281,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 271,000. The 4-week moving average was 274,750, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 273,750.There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. The previous week was unrevised.The following graph shows the 4-week moving…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Crooked Timber

  • Locke and the Declaration

    John Quiggin
    4 Jul 2015 | 11:45 pm
    I didn’t take part in the book event on Danielle Allen Our Declaration, except as a commenter. But, as it happened, I converged on some of the central questions by a different route. For some time now, I’ve been writing critically about John Locke and his propertarian theory of liberalism. Increasingly, I’ve come to the view that Locke is best seen as an American rather than an English political theorist, even though he was an absentee owner rather than an American resident. Further, while his writings appear liberal if interpreted in the English context, and if attention is…
  • Syriza has hardly covered itself in glory either

    Daniel
    3 Jul 2015 | 9:17 pm
    After Chris and John’s posts, a lot of which I agree with, I thought it made sense to look at the third member in the three-cornered disaster in Euroland … When you look at this series, two things strike the eye. One, good God what a long and deep recession. And two, it was coming to an end. Even the worst policy mistakes don’t last forever and a combination of time, human resilience and the Pigou Effect will usually prevail. Greece had two quarters of consecutive growth at the beginning of 2014. Unemployment also began to fall. They were issuing bonds on the open market and…
  • The IMF: An inexcusable, incorrigible failure

    John Quiggin
    3 Jul 2015 | 6:59 pm
    Chris has already pointed out the failure of the core European institutions in their response to the global financial crisis. One excuse that can be made for these institutions is that they are still in the process of development, and were ill-prepared, intellectually and institutionally, for an event so far outside their experience. The ECB and EC developed in a period when controlling inflation and stabilizing government debt were the key imperatives, and they responded to the crisis accordingly. No such excuse can be made for the third member of the Troika, the International Monetary Fund.
  • What’s left of the European Union?

    Chris Bertram
    3 Jul 2015 | 8:56 am
    The first few hours the atmosphere was hearty With fireworks, fun, and games of every kind; All were enjoying it, no one was blind; Brilliant the speeches improvised, the dances, And brilliant, too, the technical advances. Today, alas, that happy crowded floor Looks very different: many are in tears: Some have retired to bed and locked the door; And some swing madly from the chandeliers; Some have passed out entirely in the rears; Some have been sick in corners; the sobering few Are trying hard to think of something new. (From WH Auden, A Letter to Lord Byron) One of the consequences of the…
  • Nicholas Winton is dead

    Harry
    1 Jul 2015 | 1:18 pm
    Winton organized the Czech kinderstransport that delivered a total of 669 children bound for concentration camps to the UK, instead. He kept quiet about it until his wife found his records in the attic. He lived to 106, and died today, the anniversary of the train carrying the largest number of children—241—departed from Prague. BBC story here. Account of how he pulled it off here. He said that anybody would have done it. Interesting video story: Challenge to cynics:
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Econbrowser

  • We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Open Records Laws (in Wisconsin)

    Menzie Chinn
    3 Jul 2015 | 7:34 pm
    Apparently, we don’t need taxes on tobacco products either! [And Republicans refuse to identify lawmaker behind measure restricting access to legislative records] I guess William Cronon won’t have to worry any more about having his emails scoured by the Wisconsin GOP. From the Wisconsin State Journal: Legislative Republicans on Thursday passed sweeping changes to the state’s open records law that would dramatically curtail the kind of information available to the public about the work that public officials do. The proposal blocks the public from reviewing nearly all records…
  • The International Aspects of the Employment Release

    Menzie Chinn
    2 Jul 2015 | 5:59 pm
    The headline number for nonfarm payroll employment was decent [1], and although there are worrisome aspects, I think the key take-away is the fact that manufacturing employment is slowing much more than overall. To the extent that manufactured goods proxies for tradables, I think caution is in order with respect to monetary tightening. And yet, I read headlines reporting that the “Fed is on track to raise rates…”[Sparshott/RTE WSJ]. My argument for deferring monetary tightening follows this sequence. The dollar’s surge coincides with manufacturing employment slowdown.
  • Guest Contribution: “Macroeconomic Effects of High-Frequency Uncertainty Shocks”

    Menzie Chinn
    30 Jun 2015 | 12:30 am
    Today, we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Banque de France and University Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense) and Pierre Guérin (Bank of Canada). The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Banque de France or of the Bank of Canada. Macroeconomic and financial uncertainty is often considered as one of the key drivers of the collapse in global economic activity in 2008-2009 as well as one of the factors hampering the ensuing economic recovery (see, e.g., Stock and Watson (2012)). While it has…
  • Anil Kashyap on the Greek crisis

    James_Hamilton
    29 Jun 2015 | 4:05 pm
    University of Chicago Professor Anil Kashyap has a helpful summary of the Greek financial crisis.
  • Our distant neighbors

    James_Hamilton
    28 Jun 2015 | 7:38 am
    There’ve been some stunning pictures recently sent back from distant parts of our solar system which I wanted to share. When I was a boy, people could only imagine what a comet actually looks like. Now we know. Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko as seen from 86 kilometers by European Space Agency Rosetta mission in March 2015. Image courtesy of ESA/Rosetta/NAVCAM. NASA’s Dawn probe, launched from earth in 2007, this month sent back some phenomenal pictures of the dwarf planet Ceres, whose 1000 km diameter makes it the largest object in the asteroid belt. Remarkable features include…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    EconLog: Library of Economics and Liberty

  • Fracking: The Upside of Concentrated Beneficiaries

    David Henderson
    4 Jul 2015 | 10:28 pm
    (July 4, 2015 10:28 PM, by David Henderson) It's actually an upside of property rights. When explaining why various subsidy programs, tariffs, import quotas, and domestic restrictions on entry into various industries and occupations exist, public choice economists lean heavily on the concentrated benefits/dispersed costs paradigm. The idea... (3 COMMENTS)
  • Does Germany "care" about Greece more than America "cares" about Puerto Rico?

    Scott Sumner
    3 Jul 2015 | 2:22 pm
    (July 3, 2015 02:22 PM, by Scott Sumner) The answer is probably yes (and the scare quotes head off complaints that big impersonal governments don't actually have human feelings.) The administration has clearly been upset that the Eurozone isn't doing more to help Greece. They complain that a... (10 COMMENTS)
  • McArdle on Foreign Intervention and Blowback

    David Henderson
    3 Jul 2015 | 12:05 am
    (July 3, 2015 12:05 AM, by David Henderson) About two weeks ago, I challenged the following brief statement by Arnold Kling: We can also find this normative analysis among libertarians. Blaming terrorism on blowback for foreign intervention. Arnold was claiming that many libertarians are finding government intervention in... (8 COMMENTS)
  • Greg Mankiw Makes a Case (Kind Of) For a Competitor's Textbook

    David Henderson
    2 Jul 2015 | 6:54 pm
    (July 2, 2015 06:54 PM, by David Henderson) HINT: The textbook is The Economic Way of Thinking by Heyne, Boettke, and Prychitko. UPDATE BELOW In an excellent post today, Greg Mankiw writes about an unnamed competitor's textbook: I happened to be flipping through another introductory economics textbook. (Yes,... (14 COMMENTS)
  • The Fed shouldn't reason from a quantity change

    Scott Sumner
    2 Jul 2015 | 2:04 pm
    (July 2, 2015 02:04 PM, by Scott Sumner) I often see Fed officials claiming that the fall in unemployment means that they need to raise interest rates. Sometimes this is based on "Phillips Curve" thinking---the (false) idea that inflation is caused by a booming economy. In fact, the... (4 COMMENTS)
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Economist's View

  • Links for 07-05-15

    Mark Thoma
    5 Jul 2015 | 12:06 am
    No, Puerto Rico Isn't Greece - Paul Krugman Greece and the political capture of the IMF - mainly macro The Inevitable, Indispensable Property Tax - The New York Times The something for nothing culture - Chris Dillow Greece vs Puerto Rico and what's "systemic." - John Cochrane Insurance and Reaganomics - Paul Krugman Currency is not destiny - Vox EU
  • 'Professor Hubbard’s Claim about Wage and Compensation Stagnation Is Not True'

    Mark Thoma
    4 Jul 2015 | 9:41 am
    Larry Mishel: Professor Hubbard’s Claim about Wage and Compensation Stagnation Is Not True: ...A New York Times editorial points out ... that Glenn Hubbard, a leading conservative economist and key adviser to GOP candidate Jeb Bush, does not seem to believe there is a wage stagnation problem. As an earlier New York Times article pointed out: “Mr. Hubbard argued that ‘compensation didn’t stagnate,’ citing large increases that employers have paid out in health and pension benefits.” Hubbard is definitely mistaken, as the New York Times indicates and as I demonstrate below by…
  • 'Stability of a Market Economy'

    Mark Thoma
    4 Jul 2015 | 9:35 am
    "The macroeconomy is inherently unstable and ... booms and busts arise endogenously as the results of market incentives": Stability of a market economy, by Paul Beaudry, Dana Galizia, and Franck Portier, Vox EU: There are two polar views about the functioning of a market economy. On the one hand, there is the view that such a system is inherently stable, with market forces tending to direct the economy to a smooth growth path. According to such a belief, most of the fluctuations in the macroeconomy result from either individually optimal adjustments to changes in the environment or…
  • Links for 07-04-15

    Mark Thoma
    4 Jul 2015 | 12:06 am
    Greece - interfluidity The ideologues of the Eurozone - mainly macro Did the IMF provide support to Syriza? - Antonio Fatas Greece is solvent but illiquid: Policy implications - Vox EU Thoughts on the news from Greece - Nick Rowe Mises’s Unwitting Affirmation of the Hawtrey-Cassel - Uneasy Money Why We Shouldn’t Pay for the Political Spending of... - Robert Reich Marginal product theory at work…not! - Jared Bernstein
  • 'Behavioral Economics is Rational After All'

    Mark Thoma
    3 Jul 2015 | 11:59 am
    Roger Farmer: Behavioral Economics is Rational After All: There are some deep and interesting issues involved in the debate over behavioral economics. ... My point here, is that neoclassical economics can absorb the criticisms of the behaviourists without a major shift in its underlying assumptions. The 'anomalies' pointed out by psychologists are completely consistent with maximizing behaviour, as long as we do not impose any assumptions on the form of the utility function defined over goods that are dated and indexed by state of nature. There is a deeper, more fundamental critique.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    EconTalk

  • Continuing Education... Matt Ridley on Climate Change

    Amy Willis
    30 Jun 2015 | 12:17 pm
    Denier? Lukewarmer? Alarmist? Why so many pejorative descriptors for those engaging in conversation about climate change? This is among the questions explored in this week's EconTalk episode with with Matt Ridley. Now we'd like to continue a civil conversation on this important issue. Please use the prompts below as conversational sparks, and share your reactions in the Comments. As always, we love to hear from you. 1. What part of this week's conversation most surprised you, and why? 2. What is Pascal's Wager, and why does Ridley refer to the climate change debate as a new version of this…
  • Matt Ridley on Climate Change

    Russell Roberts
    29 Jun 2015 | 3:30 am
    Science writer and author Matt Ridley discusses climate change with EconTalk host Russ Roberts. Based on his reading of the scientific evidence, Ridley describes himself as a "lukewarmer." While Ridley agrees that humans have made the climate warmer, he argues that the impact is small or positive over some temperature ranges and regions. He rejects the catastrophic scenarios that some say are sufficiently likely to justify dramatic policy responses, and he reflects on the challenges of staking out an unpopular position on a contentious policy issue. Play Time: 1:07:37 How do I listen to a…
  • Continuing Education... Morten Jerven on African Economic Growth

    Amy Willis
    24 Jun 2015 | 11:36 am
    Is it possible that what we though we knew about Africa's stagnant economy is wrong? Do we need a more stylized economic history? If so, this week's guest, Morten Jerven may be the one to provide it. Let's hear what you took away from this week's conversation. Share your thoughts with us, and let's continue our education together. 1. What were your top takeaways from this week's conversation? 2. Why is it hard to grow a prairie from scratch? What is the lesson for economic development? 3. Jerven advocates "studying economies, not just economics." What is the practical difference between this…
  • Morten Jerven on African Economic Growth

    Russell Roberts
    22 Jun 2015 | 3:30 am
    Morten Jerven of Simon Frasier University talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his new book, Africa: Why Economists Get It Wrong. Jerven, who will be joining Noragric at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences this fall, argues that economists have misread the economic history of Africa, ignoring successful episodes of economic growth while trying to explain a perpetual malaise that does not exist. Jerven is critical of many of the attempts to explain growth using econometric techniques and suggests that a richer approach is necessary that is aware of the particular circumstances…
  • Continuing Education... Adam Davidson on Hollywood

    Amy Willis
    21 Jun 2015 | 8:30 am
    Go Hollywood this week as Russ chats with Adam Davidson of Planet Money, who recently served as technical advisor on the upcoming film The Big Short. We hope you're looking forward to the film, too. In the meantime, help us continue to expand our learning and conversation at EconTalk, using the prompts below. 1. What are your top three takeaways from this week's episode? 2. In discussing the attempts at authenticity in the film, Davidson stresses that the filmmakers were insistent that this remain "a real story and an important story" that people ought to understand. He also notes that 99% of…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Environmental Economics

  • Some BP Settlement Math: When is $18.7B really only $11.7B?

    Tim Haab
    3 Jul 2015 | 5:16 am
    After yesterday's announcement of a tentative settlement between BP and federal and state negotiators, BP has provided details of the payment schedule for the $18.7B settlement.  The settlement consists of payments for civil penalties ($5.5B), natural resource damages ($7.33B), and state damages ($4.9B) over 18 years.  An additional $1B is set aside for payments to over 400 local entities bringing the total to the reported $18.7B.  Year after consent decreeCivil Penalty paymentsNatural Resource Damages (NRD) paymentsNRD additional final paymentState Claims payments 0 $1,000,000,000 1…
  • Is the special issue a joke too?

    John Whitehead
    2 Jul 2015 | 7:42 am
    From the inbox: Dear Dr. Whitehead,The journal Laws (ISSN 2075-471X) is currently running a special issueentitled "Environmental Law and Sustainability". Dr. Kamrul Hossain , ofthe University of Lapland (Finland), is serving as Guest Editor for thisissue. We think you could make an excellent contribution based on yourexpertise and your following paper:DUBIOUS AND DUBIOUSER: CONTINGENT VALUATION AND THE TIME OF DAY. Econ. Inq. 2015, 53, 1396-1400.While the exact meaning of sustainability is yet to be explicitlystreamlined, environmental law has its flexibility to address…
  • "Gulf states reach $18.7 billion settlement with BP over oil spill"

    John Whitehead
    2 Jul 2015 | 6:40 am
    I think I've scooped all of the other environmental economics bloggers on this one (the story is from the ABC TV station in Fresno): Officials in Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana announced an $18.7 billion settlement with BP on Thursday that resolves years of litigation over the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill. The settlement announcement comes as a federal judge was preparing to rule on how much BP owed in federal Clean Water Act penalties after millions of gallons of oil spewed into the Gulf. Individual states also were pursuing litigation. Most of those penalties were to be…
  • "Nobel Prize Winner Tirole Says Carbon Price Needed for Climate"

    John Whitehead
    2 Jul 2015 | 6:15 am
    I never get tired of this stuff! Putting a price on carbon is the only effective way to curb emissions to combat climate change, according to a Nobel prize-winning economist. “People continue to buy polluting cars and live polluting lives and this will continue until their pockets are hit,” said Jean Tirole, who works at the University of Toulouse and won the 2014 Nobel Prize in economic sciences. “The problem is on such a scale that we have to hit pockets.” Tirole was speaking in Paris as negotiators from almost 200 nations are aiming for a deal at the end of the year to reduce…
  • SCOTUS and BCA

    John Whitehead
    30 Jun 2015 | 11:23 am
    I'm missing something here (Supreme court blocks Obama's limits on power plants): The Supreme Court on Monday blocked one of the Obama administration’s most ambitious environmental initiatives, an Environmental Protection Agency regulation meant to limit emissions of mercury and other toxic pollutants from coal-fired power plants. Industry groups and some 20 states had challenged the E.P.A.’s decision to regulate the emissions, saying the agency had failed to take into account the punishing costs its rule would impose. The Clean Air Act required the regulation to be…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    footnoted*

  • A very good thing for Martha Stewart!

    Michelle Leder
    24 Jun 2015 | 12:02 pm
    By now, you’ve undoubtedly read about Sequential Brands’ offer to buy Martha Stewart Omnimedia. Rumors that a deal was in the works sent Martha Stewart stock up above $7 a share last week for the first time 2010. But when the $353 million deal was announced on Monday at $6.15 a share, the stock began falling and the lawsuits and investigations started picking up (see here and here, for example). But Martha Stewart Omnimedia’s largest shareholder — that would be Martha Stewart, who according to this NY Post article stands to make $167 million on the deal based on her…
  • A very expensive year for Hertz

    Michelle Leder
    1 Jun 2015 | 8:33 am
    How much is a year of, presumably, hard work worth? At Hertz Global Holdings, the answer is north of $8 million. Last week, Hertz filed this 8-K disclosing severance details for Hertz Equipment Rental Corp. (HERC) CEO Brian MacDonald. As both this press release and the filing noted, MacDonald stepped down on May 20. Unlike similar announcements and 8-Ks, the “personal reasons” or “more time with the family” language wasn’t trotted out. Ditto for the language about “no disagreements” that is standard fare in most 8Ks announcing a sudden departure.
  • Herbalife v. Ackman: Who’s manipulating whom?

    Michelle Leder
    6 May 2015 | 9:00 am
    It’s been nearly 2 1/2 years since Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman made a 300-page presentation outlining his short position in Herbalife. Since then, countless pixels (not to mention video footage and actual ink) has been devoted to the seemingly never-ending battle, complete with dueling websites (see this company site and this anti-Herbalife site). Here at footnoted, we haven’t really spent too much time on the back-and-forth volleying. Still, a disclosure in the 10-Q that Herbalife filed yesterday afternoon — the same day it reported better-than-expected results that…
  • Warning signals in Yelp’s 10-K

    Michelle Leder
    1 May 2015 | 10:12 am
    Back on March 2, we published a report on Yelp that looked at some of the tough new language that we found in their 10-K. Given Yelp’s earnings release on Wednesday and the sharp decline in the stock price yesterday, we wanted to make the report available to all of our footnoted readers. You can read the report here for free. Just a reminder that there are no accidents in SEC filings. Everything is there for a reason.
  • Pier 1’s Not-So Confidential Agreement

    Michelle Leder
    29 Apr 2015 | 8:03 am
    Hardly a day goes by when we don’t notice a “Confidential Agreement” attached as an Exhibit to an SEC filing. The irony, of course, is that once it hits the EDGAR database, it’s not exactly confidential any longer. Take this “Confidential Retirement Agreement” that was attached to the 10-K that Pier One filed on Tuesday. The agreement was with former CFO Charles “Cary H.” Turner, who suddenly “retired” on Feb. 10, the very same day that the company “revised” its financial guidance for fiscal 2014. Just to be clear, by…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Free exchange

  • Throwing more money at homeowners

    S.K. | LONDON
    4 Jul 2015 | 7:46 am
    Payday!IN APRIL, Britain's prime minister, David Cameron, who was then campaigning in the run up to the general election, said:That wish to pass something on is about the most basic, human and natural instinct there is…That home that you have worked and saved for belongs to you and your family…And with the Conservatives, the tax man will not get his hands on it.Despite being in government for the previous five years, Mr Cameron had been unable to cut inheritance tax. His coalition partners had blocked reform of the current system, of a 40% tax payable on assets worth over and above…
  • Greek tragedy

    P.W. | LONDON
    3 Jul 2015 | 7:13 am
    ANALYSING a country’s debt sustainability sounds dry and nerdy. But the analysis the IMF prepared for Greece in late June spells out the truly tragic consequences of the Greek electorate’s decision in January to vote in a populist government led by Alexis Tsipras, the prime minister and leader of the radical-left Syriza party. Greece has gone from a position where both its economy and its underlying debt position were on the mend, to one where it will need bucketfuls of further rescue finance from official creditors together with more debt relief, the IMF shows.Worse, these calculations…
  • Is it working yet?

    S.K. | LONDON
    2 Jul 2015 | 7:36 am
    ALL work and low pay makes Uncle Sam a dull boy. Today's new job-market figures will not lift his spirits. Although new data published by the Bureau of Labour Statistics showed that lots of new jobs were created in June, wage growth that seemed to be blossoming earlier in the year has ground to a halt. Average hourly earnings that month, compared to the same period the previous year, were exactly flat—and below market expectations of a 0.2% rise. Nevertheless, the number of jobs created last month—223,000—is still a solid performance. While it is a bit below the average…
  • Capital punishment

    Y.Y. | LONDON
    1 Jul 2015 | 1:00 pm
    ALTHOUGH Greece's banks are closed this week due to the country's brinkmanship with its creditors, there is at least some good news to be found in the European Union's other Greek-speaking member state. After a five-year recession, Cyprus's economy has finally started to recover. Earlier this month, the IMF stated that Cyprus has made "strong" progress towards achieving the objectives set out by its bail-out, worth €10 billion ($11.1 billion), in March 2013. Cyprus's experience is notable, as the script it followed is similar to Greece's in a few important ways.On March 19th 2013 the…
  • Changing direction

    H.C. | LONDON
    1 Jul 2015 | 10:13 am
    WITH Greece teetering on the brink of exiting the euro area, the timing of the Bank of England’s twice-yearly update on financial stability was not ideal. As of two weeks ago, the outlook in the report was broadly unchanged, said Mark Carney, the bank’s governor. But given the Greek crisis—and especially the events of this week—things are now looking worse.Thankfully, British banks’ exposures to Greece are tiny­. They are worth less than 1% of the value of their equity capital. For the financial system to be at risk, the crisis would need to spread to peripheral euro-area…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Greg Mankiw's Blog

  • Best of Enemies

    Greg Mankiw
    3 Jul 2015 | 2:59 am
    I recently had the pleasure of seeing several films at the Nantucket Film Festival.  My favorite was Best of Enemies, a documentary about the TV debates between William Buckley and Gore Vidal during the 1968 presidential nominating conventions.  It is being released later this month.  Here is the trailer: 
  • A Common Error in Pedagogy

    Greg Mankiw
    2 Jul 2015 | 12:51 pm
    I happened to be flipping through another introductory economics textbook. (Yes, some people have the temerity to try to compete with my favorite textbook.) I noticed an error that is, unfortunately, all too common in how introductory economics is taught.  I won't mention which book it is, because I am quite fond of the authors, and because my goal here is not to pick on one particular book but rather to draw attention to a more pervasive problem.The issue is how one applies welfare economics to understand price controls, such as rent control and minimum-wage laws.The sin…
  • A Primer on the Greek Crisis

    Greg Mankiw
    29 Jun 2015 | 3:58 pm
    My friend Anil Kashyap summarizes what's been happening.
  • David Ricardo and the TPP

    Greg Mankiw
    22 Jun 2015 | 9:21 am
    A great read from Roger Lowenstein.
  • The Export-Import Bank

    Greg Mankiw
    14 Jun 2015 | 8:07 am
    I just got back from Utah, where I was one of the speakers at a conference that has been dubbed "Club Mitt." One of the other speakers--this one a politician rather than a nerdy academic like me--spoke about the need to reauthorize the Export-Import Bank.  (I won't mention the person's name, since the event is off the record.)  What struck me is how weak the arguments were.  Three arguments for the Ex-Im Bank were given:1. It creates jobs.  Of course it does!  If the government were to put the names of all businesses into a hat, pull out a few…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Hedge fund

  • 2 and 20

    Hedge Fund
    25 Jun 2015 | 3:06 am
    2 and 20? A friend just ate at a top restaurant. Some say she was ripped off. Nearby was a more famous eatery crowded with satisfied clients. Food there cost a few dollars compared to hundreds where she ate. I asked about her irrational decision avoiding "cheap" food but she said while aware of "lower" fees, differences in SKILL, EXPERIENCE and VALUE were clear between 3 star Michelin chefs and McDonalds burger flippers.Index funds and fast food firms price "cheap" due to the ingredients, work and talent that goes into them. I can't stomach the contents of either. Top funds and…
  • Warren Buffett fund

    Hedge Fund
    19 Jun 2015 | 4:08 pm
    Hedge fund managers Warren Buffett and George Soros' returns since 1969 are below. Warren prefers book value to assess performance but only partnerships trade at NAV. Warren's listed hedge fund means shareholder sentiment also affects returns. Stock price growth is what BRKA holders really get. Green line is speculator Jack Bogle's low fee, high cost index fund. Some say outperformance is just luck! Lucky for 60 years?Warren Buffett has always focused on absolute return investing and leverage, arbitrage, derivatives, event-driven, distressed, opportunistic and global…
  • Top investor

    Hedge Fund
    18 Jun 2015 | 11:08 am
    It's better to select jockeys, not horses, as I wish to avoid steep market losses that can last many years. For that reason skill and risk management ability are the ONLY things I allocate investment capital to. Asset classes get none. How about you?Skill persists but luck runs out. When does PAST performance predict FUTURE returns? How to find a "top fund"? Invest with good managers BEFORE they are famous. Despite outstanding performance, George Soros, Warren Buffett and Jim Simons were unknown hedge fund managers for decades. The best of the future are ignored today but if you work hard…
  • Asset allocation

    Hedge Fund
    3 Jun 2015 | 4:08 pm
    Asset allocation does not drive portfolio returns or variances. It's easy to rigorously prove that for every long term goal, future scenario and risk tolerance, investors should never asset allocate. I've read the academic papers, heard the gurus, met the "Nobel" geniuses. They are empirically flawed and dangerously wrong practically. Static percentages also fail to consider changing regimes, value opportunities and market anomalies.If everyone was required to invest ALL their wealth in one stock of their choice, Brinson et al would conclude that ONLY security selection drove…
  • Hedge fund test

    Hedge Fund
    31 May 2015 | 8:14 am
    Only the most dedicated and talented can find true alpha. It requires inherent ability and a minimum 50,000 hours full time investing to BECOME skilled and then working 100 hour weeks to remain so. Such people don't run strategies dependent on asset classes. Skilled investors get top scores on the Hedge Fund Test. How will you do?1) Risk management: Later today if global thermonuclear war, a Richter scale 11 earthquake, a new ice age, an alien invasion and a Texas-sized asteroid strikes earth, how much money will you make and how much will index funds - who ignore risk of course -…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

  • Divided Greece; Eve of Referendum Polls Split; 20,000 Rally 'No' and 20,0000 Rally 'Yes'; Back Home From 17 Days in Iceland

    4 Jul 2015 | 1:54 pm
    Eve of Referendum Polls SplitOn the eve of the referendum, Greek voters are undecided how to vote. If one believes the polls, it's essentially a dead heat with 43% 'no', 42.5% 'yes' and the rest undecided. Of course, the accuracy of the polls is seriously in question.Divided GreeceBloomberg reports Greece Divided on Eve of Referendum to Chart New Economic Course“What is certain is that come Monday, Greece won’t be facing just massive economic problems; it will be a deeply divided country,” said Nikos Marantzidis, a pollster and professor of political science at the University of…
  • 30% Bail-In Haircuts on Greek Deposits Over €8,000 Coming Up; Banks to Raid Deposits to Avert Collapse

    3 Jul 2015 | 2:49 pm
    30% Bail-In Haircuts Coming UpI warned countless times over the last six months that Greek citizens need to pull their deposits before it was too late.Today I report it's too late. 30% bail-in haircuts on Greek bank deposits are coming up.Banks to Raid Deposits to Avert CollapseThe Financial Times reports Greek Banks Prepare Plan to Raid Deposits to Avert CollapseGreek banks are preparing contingency plans for a possible “bail-in” of depositors amid fears the country is heading for financial collapse, bankers and businesspeople with knowledge of the measures said on Friday.The plans,…
  • Greek Banks Down to Last €500 Million; Vote for Servitude Takes Slight Lead; IMF Says Greece Needs Another €60 Billion Bailout

    3 Jul 2015 | 5:39 am
    Greece RoundupA "yes" vote in favor of servitude has now reached a slight majority according to some Greece referendum polls. How accurate the polls are is an issue. Yanis Varoufakis, Greece’s finance minister, said he would resign if Greeks voted Yes in Sunday’s referendum on the country’s bailout. "I will not sign another extend and pretend agreement", said Varoufakis.Greece to run out of essential food and medicine within days and banks down to last €500 million.Daily allowance of cash from ATMs has dropped from €60 to €50.Three quarters of business leaders think Greece will…
  • Pilot Pulls Wrong Throttle, Kills 43; Tennessee Train Crash Releases Toxic Fumes, 5,000 Evacuated; Robot-Preventable Accidents

    2 Jul 2015 | 10:42 am
    Improper training of a Taiwan pilot took the lives of 43 people in February. In a report just released, the pilot's last recorded words were "wow, pulled back the wrong side throttle".Please consider TransAsia Crash Pilot Pulled Wrong Throttle, Shut Down Sole Working Engine. The captain of a TransAsia Airways ATR mistakenly switched off the plane’s only working engine seconds before it crashed in February, killing 43 people, Taiwan’s Aviation Safety Council (ASC) said in its latest report on Thursday.The ASC’s report also showed that Captain Liao Jian-zong, who was at the controls, had…
  • Establishment Survey +233K Jobs, Household Employment Survey -56K, Part-Time Employment +372K, Labor Force -432K

    2 Jul 2015 | 7:44 am
    Initial Reaction Today's job report (for June) once again showed a huge divergence between the household survey and the establishment survey.Household survey employment fell by 56,000 while the establishment survey shows a gain of 233,000 jobs. The labor force declined by 432,000 and that explains the drop in the unemployment rate to 5.3% from 5.5%. The report was weaker than it looks due to significant downward revisions in April and May totaling 60,000. May was revised to 254,000 from 280,000 and April to 187,000 from 221,000. Part-Time Employment +372,000Of note in the Household Survey,…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Overcoming Bias

  • Mass Moralizing

    Robin Hanson
    28 Jun 2015 | 2:45 pm
    When a McDonald’s ad shows a dad and a young daughter bonding in the drive through lane, all smiles and excitement, it is claiming that eating at McDonald’s with one’s child is a way of giving to the child, perhaps repaying the child for neglect, a way to foster warm family relationships. We do not measure this claim against the real world, we measure it against our desires for this to be true, for it to be possible. (more) That is Phil Hopkins, author of the new book Mass Moralizing. His main argument is we like to buy from producers who offer sermons with which that we want to…
  • Learn By Doing, Not Watching

    Robin Hanson
    27 Jun 2015 | 9:03 am
    Decades ago the famous “gondola kitten” experiment demonstrated that one must actively explore if one is to learn. One littermate in the set-up was free to explore its environment while another hung passively suspended in a contraption that moved in parallel with the exploring kitten. The gondola passenger saw everything the exploring kitten did but could not initiate any action. The mobile kitten discovered the world for itself while the passive kitten was presented a fait accompli-world in the same way that screen images are passively delivered to us. The passive kitten learned nothing.
  • Em Scale Economies

    Robin Hanson
    23 Jun 2015 | 9:00 am
    Angle, a relaunched journal from Imperial College London, “focuses on the intersection of science, policy and politics in an evolving and complex world.” The current issue focuses on economies of scale, and includes a short paper of mine on ems: I focus on two key results related to economies of scale. … First, an em economy grows faster that ours by avoiding the diminishing returns to capital that we suffer because we can’t grow labour fast enough. Second, an economy has larger cities because it avoids the commuting congestion costs that limit our city sizes. (more) Of…
  • Doing Good ≠ Being Good

    Robin Hanson
    12 Jun 2015 | 10:30 am
    Most of us like to be associated with “idealistic” groups that claim that they are doing good, i.e., making the world better. However, this is usually not our strongest motive in choosing to associate with such groups. Instead, we more strongly want to make ourselves look good, and gain good-looking associations. Most idealistic groups quickly learn to cater to this demand by: Making meetings where people can visibly show off their affiliation with the group, form ties with like-minded others, and affiliate with impressive speakers/leaders. Making ladders of extra recognition, such as…
  • Industry Via Fashion?

    Robin Hanson
    9 Jun 2015 | 8:20 am
    What caused the industrial revolution to appear in Europe, clearly in full swing after 1800, yet never before anywhere else in the world? Since causes precede effects, one simple way to try to answer this question is to ask: What is the earliest thing that happened only in Europe that seems plausibly along a causal path to later produce an industrial revolution? For example, there was the scientific revolution in the mid 1600s, the exploration of new continents in the 1500s, and the printing press in the late 1400s. I just came across a plausible earlier candidate: rapidly changing clothing…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • July 4th

    Andrew
    4 Jul 2015 | 6:00 am
    Lucky to have been born an American. The post July 4th appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • “Why should anyone believe that? Why does it make sense to model a series of astronomical events as though they were spins of a roulette wheel in Vegas?”

    Andrew
    3 Jul 2015 | 6:35 am
    Deborah Mayo points us to a post by Stephen Senn discussing various aspects of induction and statistics, including the famous example of estimating the probability the sun will rise tomorrow. Senn correctly slams a journalistic account of the math problem: The canonical example is to imagine that a precocious newborn observes his first sunset, and wonders whether the sun will rise again or not. He assigns equal prior probabilities to both possible outcomes, and represents this by placing one white and one black marble into a bag. The following day, when the sun rises, the child places another…
  • Humility needed in decision-making

    Andrew
    2 Jul 2015 | 6:00 am
    Brian MacGillivray and Nick Pidgeon write: Daniel Gilbert maintains that people generally make bad decisions on risk issues, and suggests that communication strategies and education programmes would help (Nature 474, 275–277; 2011). This version of the deficit model pervades policy-making and branches of the social sciences. In this model, conflicts between expert and public perceptions of risk are put down to the difficulties that laypeople have in reasoning in the face of uncertainties rather than to deficits in knowledge per se. Indeed, this is the “Nudge” story we hear a…
  • Recently in the sister blog

    Andrew
    1 Jul 2015 | 6:30 am
    When is the death penalty okay? A court with no Protestants How much does advertising matter in presidential elections? Bartenders are Democrats, beer wholesalers are Republicans The ambiguity of racial categories No, public opinion is not driven by ‘unreasoning bias and emotion’ Political science: Who is it for? Modern campaigning has big effects on voter turnout Political writing that sounds good but makes no sense How much are Harry Potter’s glasses worth? The post Recently in the sister blog appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • Where does Mister P draw the line?

    Andrew
    30 Jun 2015 | 6:44 am
    Bill Harris writes: Mr. P is pretty impressive, but I’m not sure how far to push him in particular and MLM [multilevel modeling] in general. Mr. P and MLM certainly seem to do well with problems such as eight schools, radon, or the Xbox survey. In those cases, one can make reasonable claims that the performance of the eight schools (or the houses or the interviewees, conditional on modeling) are in some sense related. Then there are totally unrelated settings. Say you’re estimating the effect of silicone spray on enabling your car to get you to work: fixing a squeaky door hinge,…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Streetsblog New York City

  • NYC: Eyes on the Street: Red Paint for “Queue-Jump” Bus Lanes on the M86

    Stephen Miller
    2 Jul 2015 | 11:52 am
    A “queue-jump” bus lane next to the right-turn lane keeps buses from getting stuck at the back of the line as they exit the 86th Street Transverse at Fifth Avenue. Photo: Stephen Miller Select Bus Service on 86th Street in Manhattan won’t be getting full bus-only lanes, but riders will benefit from short bus lanes at busy intersections. DOT has added two “queue-jump” lanes where 86th Street and 84th Street meet Fifth Avenue, to keep buses from getting stuck behind traffic waiting at lights. The most important component of the M86 SBS upgrade is…
  • NYC: DOT Opens Greenpoint Ave Bridge Bike Lanes — Now With Flex-Posts

    Stephen Miller
    2 Jul 2015 | 9:41 am
    DOT Deputy Commissioner Ryan Russo leads the pack over the newly-completed Greenpoint Avenue Bridge bike lanes. Photo: Clarence Eckerson Jr. DOT staff led a celebratory ride on the Greenpoint Avenue Bridge over Newtown Creek this morning to mark the completion of new bike lanes between Brooklyn and Queens. The lanes provide safer passage on what had been a nerve-wracking crossing next to fast-moving traffic and lots of trucks. The project was first proposed in 2010 and revived earlier this year in a modified plan that called for curbside buffered bike lanes. Cyclists this morning…
  • NYC: Today’s Headlines

    Stephen Miller
    2 Jul 2015 | 6:00 am
    Turning Driver “Loses Control” and Seriously Injures Two in East NY; “No Criminality” (WCBS) Two Killed, Four Injured in Two-Car Crash Outside Middle School in Bayside (News, WABC) Queens BP, Council Members Use Budget to Fund Bus Countdown Clocks (News, Gothamist, TL) Judge Dismisses Case Against DMV for Extra Fines, Points for Bicycle Tickets (Gothamist) East Side Pols Fear Delays Mean 2nd Ave Subway Won’t Open As Promised by End of 2016 (News) Slate Joins Uber In Its Skepticism of City’s Case for Cap on New FHV Licenses Behavior Like This Is What…
  • NYC: Ferreras: “My Focus Is to Make 111th Street One Hundred Percent Safe”

    Stephen Miller
    1 Jul 2015 | 1:28 pm
    Council Member Julissa Ferreras, left, listens in during a workshop about a plan for 111th Street yesterday. Photo: Clarence Eckerson Jr. A grassroots effort to improve safety on extra-wide 111th Street in Corona yielded a DOT plan for a road diet, better pedestrian crossings, and a protected bike lane this spring. Then two members of Queens Community Board 4 stymied the proposal, at least for the time being. To keep the project moving forward, Council Member Julissa Ferreras has organized two neighborhood town halls this month. Nearly 50 people turned out yesterday afternoon for the…
  • NYC: Cooper’s Law Is Not Getting Dangerous Cab Drivers Off NYC Streets

    Brad Aaron
    1 Jul 2015 | 1:02 pm
    A Vision Zero law intended to get dangerous cab drivers off the road has been applied just two times since it took effect nine months ago, according to the New York Press. TLC vehicles were involved in thousands of crashes in the months after Cooper’s Law took effect. The TLC has applied the law two times. Image: CBS 2 Adopted last September, Cooper’s Law gives the Taxi and Limousine Commission discretion to suspend or revoke the TLC license of a cab driver convicted of a traffic violation or a crime following a crash that causes death or critical injury. The law was named after…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The Big Picture

  • Drone-filmed Fireworks

    Barry Ritholtz
    4 Jul 2015 | 5:00 pm
    Flying through a firework show with a DJI Phantom 2 and filming it with a GoPro Hero 3 silver. (The quad was not damaged).  
  • The Jewish Broker Who Saved America

    Downtown Josh Brown
    4 Jul 2015 | 2:00 pm
    You know Hancock and Washington and Franklin and Jefferson. You might even know Greene and Knox, Henry and Hale. But it is very unlikely that you know the name Haym Solomon. This is unfortunate, because he’s the guy who arranged financing to keep the Continental Army alive during its darkest days, finding the money to keep the revolution going when many were ready to throw in the towel. He was also instrumental in the founding of the Bank of North America – the country’s first “national” bank. Solomon’s contributions to the war and the founding of the nation, though seldom…
  • You’re Only Human: Here’s How it Hurts Your Portfolio

    Barry Ritholtz
    4 Jul 2015 | 8:00 am
    I recently had the privilege of sitting down for a chat with Richard Thaler, professor of the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago. Thaler is widely recognized as the father of behavioral economics. He is perennially on the short list for a Nobel Prize in economics. His observations about how people behave in the real world are a welcome change from the basic assumptions of most economists. Thaler breaks down the world into two sorts of people: Econs, the artificial constructs of how people are supposed to behave. They are perfectly rational, have great self-control,…
  • MiB: Leon Cooperman, Omega Advisors

    Barry Ritholtz
    4 Jul 2015 | 6:45 am
    This week, on our Masters in Business radio podcast, we speak with Leon Cooperman of Omega Advisors. He studied for his MBA from Columbia University, where he became steeped in the methods of deep value investment. After earning his MBA, his began his career in the Investment Research department at Goldman Sachs in 1967. He stayed there for 22 years, eventually running the research department. Institutional Investor ranked him number one for Portfolio Strategy each year from 1977-1985. He then launched Goldman Sachs Asset Management in 1989. In addition to becoming CIO + CEO of…
  • 10 Weekend Reads

    Barry Ritholtz
    4 Jul 2015 | 4:00 am
    Happy July Fourth. Pour yourself a tall glass of iced coffee, and settle in for our longer form weekend reads: • American Failure: The 401(k) is hailed as the future, but it’s horribly flawed. A select few firms are trying to change that. (Chief Investment Officer) • This Is How Uber Takes Over a City (Bloomberg) • The Surprisingly Imperfect Science of DNA Testing (Frontline) • U.S. Chamber of Commerce Works Globally to Fight Antismoking Measures (NYT) see also “The poor, the young, the black and the stupid”: Inside Big Tobacco’s plans to kill a billion…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    OUPblog

  • Philosopher of the month: Jacques Derrida

    Mohamed Sesay
    5 Jul 2015 | 12:30 am
    This July, the OUP Philosophy team will be honoring Jacques Derrida as their Philosopher of the Month. Jackie (Jacques) Élie Derrida (15 July 1930 – 9 October 2004) was a French philosopher born to an Algerian Jewish family in El-Biar, Algeria. Derrida is widely known as the founder of the Deconstructionist movement. At the age of 22, Derrida began studying philosophy in Paris at the École Normale Supérieure where phenomenology and Edmund Husserl were influential elements in his training. Derrida’s early research attempted to formulate a phenomenological theory of literature, and his…
  • Five things to know about Al Qaeda and Bin Laden

    Connie Ngo
    4 Jul 2015 | 5:30 am
    Despite Bin Laden’s death in 2011, the extremist group Al Qaeda has since survived and, some argue, continued to thrive. The effort and resources Bin Laden invested into Al Qaeda fortified its foundation, making it difficult, if not impossible, to disband or weaken the group after his death. But how did the terrorist group come to be what it is today? Daniel Byman, author of Al Qaeda, the Islamic State, and the Global Jihadist Movement: What Everyone Needs to Know, gives us some insight on how Al Qaeda transformed from a set of fragmented jihadist groups into the unified terrorist group…
  • Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland artifacts: [slideshow]

    Miranda Dobson
    4 Jul 2015 | 3:30 am
    Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland is a children’s story that has captivated the world since its publication in the 1860s. The book is celebrated each year on 4th July, which is also known as “Alice’s Day”. This is the date that Charles Dodgson (known under the pen name of Lewis Carroll) took 10-year-old Alice Liddell and her sisters on a boating trip in Oxford, and told the story that later evolved into the book that is much-loved across the world. Oxford is integral to Alice’s history, and Oxford University Press still houses a number of artifacts relating…
  • The meanings behind the anthems of Fourth of July

    AlyssaB
    4 Jul 2015 | 1:30 am
    On the Fourth of July, Americans will celebrate Independence Day at picnics, concerts, fireworks displays, and gatherings of many kinds, and they almost always sing. “America the Beautiful” will be popular, and so will “Our County, ’Tis of Thee,” and of course the national anthem, “Star-Spangled Banner” (despite its notoriously unsingable tune). The words are so familiar that, really, no one pays attention to their meaning. But read them closely and be surprised how the lyrics describe the meaning of America in three very different ways. “America the Beautiful” details a…
  • What marriage (equality) means

    Mohamed Sesay
    4 Jul 2015 | 12:30 am
    Like many, I’m still digesting the Supreme Court’s Obergefell decision—not just its text, but its personal and social significance. When I wrote Debating Same-Sex Marriage with Maggie Gallagher, only a handful of states in America permitted same-sex couples to marry. In the three years since, that handful grew to dozens; last Friday’s decision grows it to all 50 states. One striking thing about the decision itself is the importance of the definitional question: What is marriage? If the state prohibits same-sex couples from marrying, does it thereby interfere with their liberty, as the…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

  • Who’d a-Thunk It?

    Don Boudreaux
    4 Jul 2015 | 4:54 am
    (Don Boudreaux) TweetHere’s a letter to the New York Times: Your lead headline today reads “Health Insurers Seek Steep Increase in Plan Rates,” which is followed by this opening sentence in the report: “Health insurance companies around the country are seeking rate increases of 20 percent to 40 percent or more, saying their new customers under the Affordable Care Act turned out to be sicker than expected.” Wow!  Who’d a-guessed that when government arranges for Dick and Jane to buy widgets using Bob’s and Ann’s money that Dick and Jane would buy more widgets, and…
  • Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    4 Jul 2015 | 4:19 am
    (Don Boudreaux) Tweet… is from William Robertson‘s 1791 An Historical Disquisition Concerning the Knowledge Which the Ancients Had of India, as quoted on page 61 of the 1993 Revised Edition of John Kenyon’s excellent 1983 volume, The History Men (punctuation corrected to conform to Robertson’s original): It is a cruel mortification, searching for what is instructive in the history of past times, to find that the exploits of conquerors who have desolated the earth, and the freaks of tyrants who have rendered nations unhappy, are recorded with minute and often…
  • Pierre Desrochers Busts Locavore Myths

    Don Boudreaux
    3 Jul 2015 | 1:32 pm
    (Don Boudreaux) TweetI just re-watched Pierre Desrochers presentation – at Cato in June 2012 – on “buy local” myths.  It’s superb: fun, fact-filled, and informative.  Because I believe that I inexcusably failed earlier to post this video on Cafe Hayek, I share it now.  (Pierre is the co-auther, with his wife Hiroko Shimizu, of The Locavore’s Dilemma – a truly wonderful book.)
  • The Amounts of Work Time and Effort Were Not Relevant Factors In that Post

    Don Boudreaux
    3 Jul 2015 | 11:12 am
    (Don Boudreaux) TweetAnne Koeller responds to my earlier e-mail with this objection: Your [Boudreaux’s] air example doesn’t apply because it takes no work to fill bottles with air but strenuous work is required to perform as first responders. Ms. Koeller’s objection misses the point. Indeed, the very fact that it takes no work on the surface of the earth to fill bottles with breathable air supports rather than undermines my point.  Still, to clarify, let me amend the example marginally: Jones, noting that breathable air is of enormous total value to humanity, works very…
  • Applauding Abundant Supplies of Things of Great ‘Total Social Worth’

    Don Boudreaux
    3 Jul 2015 | 7:25 am
    (Don Boudreaux) TweetHere’s a letter to a long-time correspondent (who doesn’t like today’s Quotation of the Day): Ms. Anne Koeller Dear Ms. Koeller: Thanks for your kind e-mail. You’re correct that the importance to humanity of the services of firefighters, paramedics, and other first-responders is huge.  But your conclusion that these workers are underpaid doesn’t follow.  Pay isn’t determined by what you call “the total social worth” of some particular line of work.  Rather, pay is determined by the value of each individual worker’s contributions to his or…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Dollars & Sense Blog

  • Report from Greece; Links on Greece

    Chris Sturr
    4 Jul 2015 | 7:56 am
    Links to good pieces on tomorrow’s Yes/No referendum in Greece: Yanis Varoufakis (Greece’s finance minister), from his blog, Why we recommend a NO in the referendum — in 6 short bullet points. Joseph Stiglitz, the Guardian, How I would vote in the Greek referendum. Dean Baker, from his blog Beat the Press, Greece and Puerto Rico, about how much better Puerto Rico’s situation is than Greece’s (although it is bad), because of PR’s relationship with the U.S. federal government. Paul Mason, the Guardian, Greece in Chaos: Will Syriza’s last desperate…
  • Thursday Links: “Fix Our T,” SEC, TPP, etc.

    Chris Sturr
    18 Jun 2015 | 1:48 pm
    (1) Fix “Our” T:  On my walk from Boston’s South Station to the D&S office this morning, I encountered an army of people in red “Fix Our T” t-shirts asking commuters to sign a petition to “Fix Our T.” (The “T” is Boston’s public transit systems, including a subway, buses, and commuter rail.) When I asked one of the petition-wielders what it was all about, she mumbled something about “increasing transparency and accountability.” I said that wasn’t enough information for me to sign anything, and asked if she had…
  • Two Illinois Victories

    Chris Sturr
    27 May 2015 | 12:50 pm
    Last month (in this post) I blogged about Doug Henwood’s great interview with Jane McAlevey and her comments about billionaire Illinois governor Bruce Rauner and his relentless campaign against labor.  Since then, Rauner has been handed some stinging defeats, which is great news. First, the Illinois Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the state’s 2013 pension overhaul (under the previous, Democratic Governor Pat Quinn) is unconstitutional. From the NYT piece (Illinois Supreme Court Rejects Lawmakers’ Pension Overhaul): All seven members of the state’s highest court found…
  • New Issue!

    Chris Sturr
    17 May 2015 | 2:49 pm
      New issue!  Our May/June 2015 issue is out (for electronic subscribers; print subscribers will get their copies in about ten days).  We have posted one article from the issue, Marie Duggan’s timely piece A Way Out for Greece and Europe: Keynes’ Advice from the 1940s. Our page-two editorial note (written this time by my co-editor, Alejandro Reuss) is an unusually good guide to the issue this time, stitching together most of the articles in the issue under the (unplanned) theme of “Reform and Revolution”: Reform and Revolution For mainstream liberalism, it is an…
  • Monday Links: Rihanna, Baltimore, Jean Tirole, Private Equity

    Chris Sturr
    5 May 2015 | 10:56 am
    (1) Rihanna, American Oxygen. The video for this song from mega-pop-star Rihanna’s new album R8 is pretty interesting–with lyrics that seem to be about the so-called “American Dream,” and which could *almost* be a patriotic anthem, but with at least one line in some tension with that: “We sweat for a nickel and a dime, turn it into an empire.” This could be interpreted as the rags-to-riches hope for an “empire” of personal wealth (much like Rihanna’s, who is an immigrant from Barbados), but in the video, the word “empire” is…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Credit Slips

  • Catching Up

    Stephen Lubben
    4 Jul 2015 | 10:37 am
    So I've been off the grid for a few weeks, and of course after months of little to talk about, the world gave us a bounty of stories about financial distress, and related topics, each of which would merit its own post. But I'm going to hit them quickly to get caught up again this holiday weekend: I've always enjoyed reading Hamilton's Report on Public Credit, which has something of a reorganization plan about it, as well as a good discussion of distressed debt trading. Thus, I'm largely in agreement with those that say that Jackson and not Hamilton should go to free…
  • Madden v. Marine Midland Funding

    Adam Levitin
    2 Jul 2015 | 10:54 am
    In a recent case called Madden v. Marine Midland Funding, the Second Circuit ruled that a loan owned by a debt collector violated New York's usury statute.  The loan had been originally made by a national bank and was subsequently sold to the debt collector when it was in default.  There's no question that the state usury law was preempted when the loan was held by the national bank.  The Supreme Court's (awful) Marquette National Bank v. First of Omaha Service Corp. decision from 1978 makes that very clear.  (The Court suddenly discovered in 1978 that over a century of…
  • Notifying Potential Claimants in Diocese Chapter 11 Cases

    Pamela Foohey
    30 Jun 2015 | 3:28 pm
    Since 2004, 12 Catholic dioceses have filed under Chapter 11. The latest case is that of the Archdiocese of St. Paul and Minneapolis, which filed in January 2015. The claims bar date is set for August 3. How should the Archdiocese go about notifying potential claimants -- clergy abuse survivors who have not yet come forward and who may feel ashamed and alone -- that they need to file a claim by the bar date? Yesterday the official unsecured creditors' committee (which is comprised of five clergy abuse survivors) filed a motion requesting that the bankruptcy court order all 187 parishes…
  • Gelpern on Puerto Rico and Greece on Rehm

    Bob Lawless
    30 Jun 2015 | 9:51 am
    Credit Slips blogger, Anna Gelpern, was on the Diane Rehm Show this morning discussing the financial problems in Puerto Rico and Greece. Gelpern of Georgetown University was joined by Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal and Matthias Matthjis of Johns Hopkins. A link to the full audio program can be found here. 
  • Searching CFPB Consumer Narratives

    Pamela Foohey
    26 Jun 2015 | 9:30 am
    Yesterday the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) went live with its consumer complaint database, publishing over 7,700 consumer narratives detailing problems they have faced with banks, debt collectors, and other creditors. The CFPB also issued a request for information seeking public input on how it can make the data more useful to the public, including how to normalize the narratives to make them more comparable. Which prompted me to search through some of the narratives. The website allows for viewing of the narratives online by products and services, as well as downloading of…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The Aleph Blog

  • Sixteen Implications of “The Phases of an Investment Idea”

    David Merkel
    2 Jul 2015 | 2:50 am
    Photo Credit: David WarringtonMy last post has many implications. I want to make them clear in this post.When you analyze a manager, look at the repeatability of his processes.  It’s possible that you could get “the Big Short” right once, and never have another good investment idea in your life.  Same for investors who are the clever ones who picked the most recent top or bottom… they are probably one-trick ponies.When a manager does well and begins to pick up a lot of new client assets, watch for the period where the growth slows to almost zero.  It is quite…
  • The Phases of an Investment Idea

    David Merkel
    27 Jun 2015 | 9:52 pm
    Photo Credit: David WarringtonInvesting ideas come in many forms:Factors like Valuation, Sentiment, Momentum, Size, Neglect…New technologiesNew financing methods and security typesChanges in government policies will have effects, cultural change, or other top-down macro ideasNew countries to invest inEvents where value might be discovered, like recapitalizations, mergers, acquisitions, spinoffs, etc.New asset classes or subclassesDurable competitive advantage of marketing, technology, cultural, or other corporate practicesNow, before an idea is discovered, the economics behind the idea…
  • Stocks or Bonds?

    David Merkel
    19 Jun 2015 | 9:55 pm
    I was writing to potential clients when I realized that I don’t have so much to write about my bond track record as I do my track record with stocks.  I jotted down a note to formalize what I say about my bond portfolios.One person I was writing to asked some detailed questions, and I told him that the stock market was likely to return about 4.5%/yr (not adjusted for inflation) over the next ten years.  The model I use is the same one as this one used by pseudonymous Philosophical Economist.  I don’t always agree with him, but he’s a bright guy, what can I say?
  • Redacted Version of the June 2015 FOMC Statement

    David Merkel
    17 Jun 2015 | 12:41 pm
    Photo credit: jonesylife || Oh look, a dozen doves flying at the FOMC! April 2015June 2015CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic growth slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting transitory factors.Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that economic activity has been expanding moderately after having changed little during the first quarter.Shades GDP up.  Why can’t the FOMC accept that the economy is structurally weak?The pace of job gains moderated, and the…
  • At RT/America’s Boom/Bust

    David Merkel
    15 Jun 2015 | 11:04 pm
    I had the fun today of taping a segment with Ameera David on RT Boom/Bust. The above video covers the first half of the session, and lasts about seven minutes. We covered the following topics (with links to articles of mine, if any are applicable):Bond Market IlliquidityStock Market ValuationsThe Slowness of the FOMCWhy many retail investors get skunked by the marketHow to invest in this environmentPotential Equity Market Sector PicksThe second half, should it make it onto the show, deals mostly with international issues.  Enjoy the video, if you want to.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Quoting the Crisis

  • Former AIG CEO wins bailout lawsuit, but court awards no...

    15 Jun 2015 | 7:33 pm
    Former AIG CEO wins bailout lawsuit, but court awards no damages By Jim Puzzanghera, latimes.com WASHINGTON — A federal judge ruled that regulators went too far in taking a huge stake in American International Group Inc. as part of its 2008 bailout, but he decided that damages weren’t warranted for the giant insurer’s former chief executive a…
  • Inequality Matters Jared Bernstein and Ben Spielberg,...

    5 Jun 2015 | 11:56 am
    Inequality Matters Jared Bernstein and Ben Spielberg, theatlantic.com Conservative commentators have been arguing that the uneven distribution of wealth and income in America isn’t a problem. They’re wrong.Lately, one argument that’s been making the rounds is that people should worry less about inequality and mor…
  • Paul Krugman: Texas is a failed experiment in “reverse...

    5 Jun 2015 | 11:46 am
    Paul Krugman: Texas is a failed experiment in “reverse Robin-Hood” economic policy Scott Eric Kaufman, salon.com Giving to the rich and brutalizing the poor is not, it turns out, a sound plan for economic growthFollowing the news that former Texas Governor Rick Perry is throwing his hat into the Republican primary, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman…
  • To save free trade, kill TPP Cory Doctorow, boingboing.net The...

    25 May 2015 | 9:03 am
    To save free trade, kill TPP Cory Doctorow, boingboing.net The enemies of the Trans Pacific Partnership don’t necessarily oppose free trade, but they’re foursquare against the kind of corrupt, secretive negotiations that line the pockets of favored industries at the public’s expense.Trade deals like NA…
  • Amazon will finally start paying tax in the UK Cory Doctorow,...

    24 May 2015 | 10:13 am
    Amazon will finally start paying tax in the UK Cory Doctorow, boingboing.net The company will abandon the pretense that its UK sales are consummated in Luxembourg and that the money floats in a state of taxless grace in the middle of the Irish Sea.The move isn’t entirely voluntary, of course. As of this April, companies…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    IMF Survey Magazine

  • Inclusion, Governance, Fiscal Space Can Help Overcome Fragility

    1 Jul 2015 | 8:02 am
    A focus on inclusive politics, effective governance, and fiscal health offers a way to overcome fragility in sub-Saharan Africa, an IMF staff report says. Still, given the multiple sources of fragility, fragile countries find it very difficult to build resilience, the study adds.
  • Strong and Equitable Growth: Fiscal Policy Can Make a Difference

    30 Jun 2015 | 10:12 am
    Amid a recovery from the financial crisis that continues to disappoint and growing fear that the global economy is entering a prolonged period of mediocre growth, a new IMF study says that fiscal policy can actually lift potential growth.
  • IMF Work Agenda Aims to Lift Global Growth, Address New Risks

    25 Jun 2015 | 8:31 am
    The IMF has published a new work program that aims to diminish risks and tackle emerging global challenges to help bolster actual and potential growth.
  • IMF Extends Support for Senegal’s Plan to Be Emerging Economy

    25 Jun 2015 | 6:26 am
    The IMF’s Executive Board renews its support for Senegal’s economic and financial policies by approving a third straight endorsement of the West African nation’s policy program. The program underpins Senegal’s goal of attaining emerging-economy status by 2035.
  • Cyprus Steps Toward Sustainable Growth

    23 Jun 2015 | 2:26 pm
    Cyprus has made good progress in implementing its economic program, notably reforms to ease the burden of bad loans. In the first quarter of 2015, the nation returned to positive growth for the first time in four years.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The Baseline Scenario

  • I Agree with Milton Friedman!

    James Kwak
    15 Jun 2015 | 11:02 am
    By James Kwak In Capitalism and Freedom, Milton Friedman asks what types of inequality are ethically justifiable. In particular (pp. 164–66): “Inequality resulting from differences in personal capacities, or from differences in wealth accumulated by the individual in question, are considered appropriate, or at least not so clearly inappropriate as differences resulting from inherited wealth. “This distinction is untenable. Is there any greater ethical justification for the high returns to the individual who inherits from his parents a peculiar voice for which there is a great demand…
  • What Is the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Really All About?

    Simon Johnson
    4 Jun 2015 | 8:54 am
    By Simon Johnson The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a proposed free trade agreement (FTA) between the United States and 11 other countries.  It is comprised of two main parts: reductions in tariffs (and related non-tariff barriers), of the kind typically seen in trade agreements; and new rules for foreign direct investment and intellectual property rights, which have not previously been prominent in FTAs. The new rules part has become controversial.  The case for introducing an investor-state dispute settlement seems less than compelling – this would favor foreign investors over…
  • Over at Medium: Geo-Engineering Doesn’t Reduce Long-Term Risk

    James Kwak
    1 Jun 2015 | 1:42 pm
    By James Kwak Mark Buchanan — who is actually a physicist, after all — makes a compelling argument against relying on geo-engineering to deal with our climate change problem. For one thing, some of the proposed technologies simply won’t work, because they do nothing about the fact that the poles are warming faster than the rest of the planet. For another, the geo-engineering fairy is being used to lobby against other approaches — conservation and renewable energy sources — that would deal with climate change at its source. Another reason to be skeptical of…
  • Over at Medium: Organized Crime on Wall Street

    James Kwak
    22 May 2015 | 8:23 am
    By James Kwak One of the central dramas of the early seasons of The Wire is the cat-and-mouse game between Avon Barksdale’s drug operation and the detectives of the Major Crimes Unit. The drug dealers started off using pagers and pay phones. When the police tapped the pagers and the phones, Barksdale’s people switched to “burner” cell phones that they threw away before the police could tap them. By Season 4, Proposition Joe advised Marlo Stanfield not to use phones at all. Well, apparently, Wall Street currency traders don’t watch The Wire. I don’t think anyone was surprised to…
  • Why Is The White House Threatening To Veto An Imaginary Trade Promotion Authority (TPA)?

    Simon Johnson
    21 May 2015 | 3:33 pm
    By Simon Johnson At today’s daily briefing, White House spokesman Josh Earnest communicated the president’s threat to veto any trade promotion authority (TPA) that “could undermine the independence or ability of the Federal Reserve to make monetary policy decisions”.  (The question was posed at minute 42:50, Mr. Earnest’s answer starts at 43:31, and the lead up to this quote starts around 45:20.) Mr. Earnest’s statement seems clear enough, but what potential TPA is he talking about?  Either the White House is confused or some other communications strategy is at work here. …
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Trends... Find them, ride them and get off.

  • The IPO is Broken and Dead …Long Live the IPO…and Shake Shack is Bigger than Coal Industry

    Howard Lindzon
    3 Jul 2015 | 11:05 am
    Nothing is broken. Fear and greed is at work as it always is. Yes, the regulations have swung too far into the costly mode. Yes, technology companies are going public later. Yes, there are a slew of broken technology IPO’s. Yes, it will get worse before it gets better. But, IPO’s will never die. The latest meme amongst the VC’s, tech ‘journalists’, and founders is about the ‘bubble’, when it will end and why. Farhoo at the WSJ is ground zero of latest with this piece. It’s not interesting to me but it set Fred Wilson off to write this piece in…
  • Robinhood Just Made ‘Passive’ Investing Easier Than Ever

    Howard Lindzon
    25 Jun 2015 | 5:03 pm
    Robinhood just blew open the doors to passive investing for EVERY American of investing age. They are not promoting it as such but I will. Let me explain. The new Robinhood app upgrade allows for automatic deposits. Now any American of investing age can open an account in a few minutes and set and forget weekly deposits. With a few clicks and zero commission every investor can dollar cost average those savings into SPY the largest and most efficient S&P ETF. Basically, Robinhood has built the simplest, most efficient and cheapest ‘robo’ saving and investing plan on the…
  • Congratulations Facebook ….Time to Buy Slack

    Howard Lindzon
    24 Jun 2015 | 2:01 am
    The only thing Facebook has really missed is email and lucky for them, email is mostly dead. Today Facebook hit another all-time high and is worth $238 billion. Facebook owns a lot of our digital history and wants to own the digital future. They have acquired a genetically better Kodak (Instagram), a genetically better ‘Ma Bell’ (Whatsapp) and potentially, your personal Disney (Oculus). Facebook (at $238 billion) has also knocked out Walmart to become a top 10 Market Capitalization Company. A true sign of the times. Facebook now bigger than Walmart -> "@sobata416: FB's…
  • Twitter To Have a New CEO…Poor Bastard

    Howard Lindzon
    11 Jun 2015 | 4:29 pm
    Nothing more productive than having wifi on a jetBlue flight to NYC for 6 hours to catch up on email, reading and writing. The future of Twitter is now in the hands of a player to be named later. Perfect. The amazing ‘Game of Thrones’ drama continues. Everyone is chiming in and everyone has chimed in. That’s the point of Twitter. I am with Daring Fireball on this one though: Rightly or wrongly, the writing has been on the wall: Wall Street wanted Costolo out. But I think what Wall Street wants is a pipe dream: for Twitter to turn into another Facebook. No CEO is going to…
  • Goldman Sachs and ShittyBank…

    Howard Lindzon
    10 Jun 2015 | 7:35 am
    It is hard to argue with price. Forgetting all the stealing, cheating, lying and government loans (gifts), Goldman Sachs is up 150 percent since the crisis in 2008. Here are how the rest of the ‘banks’ have fared. Global banking’s winners and losers since the crisis GS CS C JPM http://stks.co/i2XgV — Allan Schoenberg (@allanschoenberg) Jun. 10 at 06:08 AM In 2011 (probably my last appearance on CNBC), I referred to Citibank as ‘Shittybank’. It was just supposed to be fun and everyone did laugh. I would say the numbers have backed this up. As for Goldman, they…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Economic Principals

  • The Generations of Economics

    dw
    28 Jun 2015 | 3:52 pm
    (This is a re-worked section I cut from the bottom of the introductory episode of this fifteen-part serial, on May 17,  at a time when I was more worried about the length of installments than I am now. See if it helps make sense of what you have already read.  It is also an intermission, as I am traveling.) Economics, at least in its dominant narrative tradition, is a story of human lifetimes. Its most vital concerns in the present day span no more than four or five generations: the lives of our parents and grandparents backwards in time, our own lives in the present, the lives of our…
  • The Practicals Take a Hand (Part II)

    dw
    21 Jun 2015 | 2:57 pm
    If the first half of the nineteenth century in Britain was dominated by the Napoleonic wars and their aftershocks – strikes, demonstrations, suffrage demands – the nation settled down after 1850 to the far happier decades of the Victorian Era.  One conception of revolution replaced another. What had been universally recognized as an age of democratic revolutions around the world gave way to an age of industrial revolutions, one following on the heels of another:  Adam Smith and the steam engine in the first instance (as the economic historian Arnold Toynbee put it in 1884); electricity.
  • The Practicals Take A Hand (Part I)

    dw
    14 Jun 2015 | 11:47 am
    Bankers who were Adam Smith’ contemporaries noted the political economist’s relative lack of curiosity about their business. They remembered the South Sea Bubble of 1720. They connected it with the experience of the Ayr Bank in 1772, as well as the other bank crises of 1745, 1763. They knew, too, that the British banking system was changing rapidly in the years after Wealth of Nations appeared, producing one innovation after another. The use of personal checks grew rapidly in replacing bank notes. Many more country banks were established in cities outside of London. A new institution, the…
  • Adam Smith, Theorist

    dw
    7 Jun 2015 | 2:30 pm
    Modern readers meet Adam Smith, if at all, as a caricature: on neckties, in op-ed articles, as a critic of government, a prophet of markets and laissez-faire. This think-tank version grossly distorts his significance. Like his friend Benjamin Franklin, Smith was astoundingly wide and deep: founder of a modern social science, moral philosopher, a man of affairs, and a superb writer as well. Thomas Jefferson, John Adams, Alexander Hamilton read his books.  He was, if not a founding father of the American republic, a favorite uncle. His very universality makes it difficult to isolate his…
  • Just before the Lights Went Up

    dw
    31 May 2015 | 2:05 pm
    Douglas, Heron and Co., popularly known as the Ayr Bank, had closed its doors amidst a run in June 1772.  A handful of local noblemen and gentry, mostly large landowners, had founded it a few years before to fund improvements in southwest Scotland’s booming linen industry and tobacco trade. But they had been foolish in their lending. News that the bank’s London agent had been caught short speculating in East India Company shares and had fled to Europe now started a run that had turned into a nationwide panic.  The failure of the Ayr Bank was threatening to drag down not only the…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Marginal REVOLUTION

  • Might Greece see some version of hyperinflation?

    Tyler Cowen
    4 Jul 2015 | 9:30 pm
    Keep in mind that things can go badly under either a yes or no vote today.  (I am not even sure the referendum result will make such a difference, since it is all in the subsequent deal, or lack thereof, and the terms would be different anyway.)  Yet I do not think a hyperinflation is the likely result. As things stand, Greece could run out of euros in well under a week.  That is a deflationary pressure.  To be sure, Greek companies are already starting to print up various kinds of scrip.  But those will be media of exchange priced in terms of euros, not new media of account.  The…
  • Greece and Syriza lost the public relations battle

    Tyler Cowen
    4 Jul 2015 | 5:21 pm
    One of the most striking aspects of the Greek situation is just how much the Greek government has lost the public relations battle.  They have lost it among the social democracies, and they have lost it most of all with the other small countries in Europe.  They retain some sympathy in the American government, but we are not willing to put any money on the table and basically we want the European Union to clean up the problems for us. If you look at the progressive economists, Stiglitz, Krugman, Piketty and Sachs all recommend a “no” vote on the referendum.  Though they would…
  • Saturday assorted links

    Tyler Cowen
    4 Jul 2015 | 9:29 am
    1. “Kids are too rebellious, he says. “A disciple is what you want.””  Is La Monte Young the greatest living composer? 2. Pete Sampras writes a letter to his 15-year-old self. 2. How companies really get valued. 4. Does Germany care about Greece more than America cares about Puerto Rico? 5. What would it cost to produce and order all of Wikipedia? 6. How do outsiders evaluate getting an economics PhD?
  • An Abandoned Space Ship

    Alex Tabarrok
    4 Jul 2015 | 4:32 am
    Russian urban explorer and photographer Ralph Mirebs discovered an enormous, abandoned hangar in Kazakhstan. Inside were the remains of the Soviet space shuttle program. More amazing photos from the source here or from a secondary news piece here.
  • China facts of the day

    Tyler Cowen
    4 Jul 2015 | 1:58 am
    Greece is small, China is large: The Shanghai Composite has now fallen 12.1 per cent since Monday, its third consecutive week of double-digit losses since hitting a seven-year high on June 12. The Shanghai index is firmly in bear market territory, down 28.6 per cent since the June peak, while the tech-heavy Shenzhen Composite has fallen 33.2 per cent. There were also signs on Friday that the stock market turmoil is beginning to reverberate beyond China. The Australian dollar, often traded as a proxy for China growth, is down 1.2 per cent to a six-year low of US$0.7539. The 21st Century…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality

  • Links and Tweets

    J. Bradford DeLong
    5 Jul 2015 | 8:31 pm
    Links: Must-Read: Simon Wren-Lewis: The Ideologues of the Eurozone Duncan Wheldon: "Syriza has transformed from 'end austerity' to 'implement austerity in a left wing redistributionary way' to 'slightly tweak existing austerity'. That's quite a journey in a matter of weeks..." Joseph Cotterill: "It’s a Greek debt sustainability analysis by IMF staff... the frankest effort... so far to acknowledge the straits Greece is in regarding its debt to official creditors, and accordingly, their most radical proposal yet to euthanise large parts of that official debt..." Paul de Grauwe: "Accepting…
  • Noted for Your Nighttime Procrastination for July 4, 2015

    J. Bradford DeLong
    4 Jul 2015 | 4:59 pm
    Must- and Should-Reads: Must-Read: Simon Wren-Lewis: The Ideologues of the Eurozone Paul de Grauwe: "Accepting that the (restructured) Greek debt is sustainable opens the door to both a softening of the austerity programme and to liquidity support of the Greek banking sector..." Duncan Wheldon: "Syriza has transformed from 'end austerity' to 'implement austerity in a left wing redistributionary way' to 'slightly tweak existing austerity'. That's quite a journey in a matter of weeks..." Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog Department of "HUH!? WTF!?!?": Greek Crisis Troika-Defending…
  • Department of "HUH!? WTF!?!?": Greek Crisis Troika-Defending Ideologues Edition

    J. Bradford DeLong
    4 Jul 2015 | 4:37 pm
    Over at Equitable Growth: Angel Ubide writes: @mark_dow Good points.Sadly we'll never know if pre-Syriza growth sustainable. Bberg consensus thought so cc:@delong pic.twitter.com/QpQ1m4vcwN— Angel Ubide (@AngelUbide) July 4, 2015 Ummmm... "Pre-Syriza growth" would return Greek GDP to its 1975-1999 trend... never. "Pre-Syriza growth" was at a pace that would not return Greek real GDP to the 2007 level of the 1975-1999 trend (if you think that was Greece's "real" potential output in 2007) until... 2023. READ MOAR "Pre-Syriza growth" was at a pace that would not return Greek real GDP…
  • Weekend Reading: Arthur Goldhammer: The Old Continent Creaks

    J. Bradford DeLong
    4 Jul 2015 | 4:17 pm
    Arthur Goldhammer: The Old Continent Creaks: Austerity and the failures of the technocratic elite have created the current populist backlash. France’s experience is instructive—and, possibly, ominous: What’s the matter with Europe? Wherever one looks these days, there are signs of deep trouble. Economic growth has stagnated. Deflation threatens. Unemployment is rampant in many member states of the European Union. Support for the former mainstream parties of the center-right and center-left is waning. Populist parties of the far right and far left are on the rise. Anti-Islamic movements…
  • Liveblogging History: July 4, 1187: Battle of Hattin

    J. Bradford DeLong
    4 Jul 2015 | 4:10 pm
    Wikipedia: Battle of Hattin: The crusaders began their march from Sephoria on July 3.... By noon on that day, the Crusader army had reached a spring at the village of Tur'an some six miles (10 km) from La Saphorie. Here, according to Saladin, 'The hawks of the Frankish infantry and the eagle of their cavalry hovered around the water.' It was still nine miles (14 km) to Tiberias. Therefore, with only a half day of marching time remaining, any attempt to leave this sure water source to seek that objective the same day, all while under the constant attack of Saladin's army, would be foolhardy.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    99% Invisible

  • 171- Johnnycab (Automation Paradox, Pt. 2)

    Roman Mars
    30 Jun 2015 | 11:58 pm
    More than 90% of all automobile accidents are all attributable to human error, for some car industry people, a fully-automated car is a kind of holy grail. However, as automation makes our lives easier and safer, it also creates more complex systems, and fewer humans who understand those systems. Which means when problems do arise—people can be left unable to deal with them. Human factors engineers call this “the automation paradox.” Sam Greenspan gets under the hood of our potential future dominated by the “Johnnycab“.
  • 170- Children of the Magenta (Automation Paradox, pt. 1)

    Roman Mars
    23 Jun 2015 | 5:13 pm
    On the evening of May 31, 2009, 216 passengers, three pilots, and nine flight attendants boarded an Airbus 330 in Rio de Janeiro. This flight, Air France 447, was headed across to Paris. Everything proceeded normally for several hours. Then, with no communication to the ground to or air traffic control, Flight 447 suddenly disappeared. Days later, several bodies and some pieces of the plane were found floating in the Atlantic Ocean. But it would be two more years before most of the wreckage was recovered from the ocean’s depths. All 228 people on board had died. The cockpit voice…
  • 169- Freud’s Couch

    Roman Mars
    16 Jun 2015 | 10:55 pm
    Sigmund Freud’s ground-breaking techniques and theories for therapy came to be called “psychoanalysis,” and it was embodied, in practice and popular culture, by a single piece of furniture: the couch. Producer Ann Hepperman explores the role of this canonical object in the theory of the mind that changed the world.
  • 168- All In Your Head

    Roman Mars
    10 Jun 2015 | 12:57 am
    People who make horror movies know: if you want to scare someone, use scary music. Some of the most creative use of music and sound to evoke fear and anxiety is on the TV show Hannibal. Hrishikesh Hirway of Song Exploder spoke with evolutionary biologist Dan Blumstein, Hannibal executive producer David Slade, and composer Brian Reitzell. Bonus: To celebrate the addition of Song Exploder to Radiotopia, we’re playing Roman’s favorite episode of the program, featuring John Roderick of The Long Winters “exploding” his masterpiece “The Commander Thinks Aloud.”…
  • 167- Voices in the Wire

    Roman Mars
    2 Jun 2015 | 8:08 pm
    This week on 99% Invisible, we have two stories about the early days of broadcasting and home sound recording, produced by Radio Diaries and the Kitchen Sisters. The sounds that came out Frank Conrad’s Garage in 1919 and 1920 are gone. There were no recordings made, and everyone who participated in his audio experiments have died. In this piece, Radio Diaries uncovers what might have happened in Frank Conrad’s garage, where some people say modern broadcasting began. The first portable audio recorder was made in 1945 by a man named Tony Schwartz. He moved the VU meter from inside of…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Eat the Bankers.com

  • Thursday Jobs Report

    Sinclair Noe
    2 Jul 2015 | 4:02 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 27 = 17,730 SPX – 0.64 = 2076 NAS – 3 = 5009 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.39% OIL – .03 = 56.93 GOLD – 2.60 = 1166.70 SILV + .13 = 15.78   Normally, we get the jobs report on the first Friday of the month, but the stock and bond markets will be closed tomorrow for the 4th of  July holiday; so, it’s a Jobs Report Thursday.   The US economy created 223,000 new jobs in June. The unemployment rate dropped from 5.5% to 5.3%; that’s the lowest level in 7 years. Employment gains for May and April were revised lower by a combined…
  • The Greek Unknown

    Sinclair Noe
    1 Jul 2015 | 4:17 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 138 = 17,757 SPX + 14 = 2077 NAS + 26 = 5013 10 YR YLD + .09 = 2.42% OIL – .02 = 56.94 GOLD – 4.30 = 1169.30 SILV – .12 = 15.65   Let’s start today with some economic data. ADP reports private-sector hiring picked up in June, as employers added 237,000 jobs. The monthly jobs report from the Labor Department will be released tomorrow; it includes private sector plus government jobs. The consensus guestimate is for about 225,000 new jobs last month.   Construction spending rose 0.8% in May to a seasonally adjusted $1.04 trillion.
  • Spend Your Time Wisely

    Sinclair Noe
    30 Jun 2015 | 4:00 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 23 = 17,619 SPX + 5 = 2063 NAS + 28 = 4986 10 YR YLD un = 2.33% OIL + 1.14 = 59.47 GOLD – 7.50 = 1173.60 SILV – .09 = 15.77   Today marks the end of the second quarter; we are halfway through the year. The stock market has been trading in an extremely tight range. After a weak January and a rebound in February, the major indices have moved sideways for 4 months. The Dow Industrials are down 204 points for the first half; the Nasdaq Composite is up 250 points for the first six months; the S&P 500 gained 5 points year to date. The S&P…
  • Pick Your Poison

    Sinclair Noe
    29 Jun 2015 | 4:04 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 350 = 17,596 SPX – 43 = 2057 NAS – 122 = 4958 10 YR YLD – .15 = 2.33% OIL – 1.30 = 58.33 GOLD + 5.90 = 1181.10 SILV + .01 = 15.86   Late Friday, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called for a July 5 referendum on whether to accept the latest offer from Greece’s creditors. That meant that Greece would not pay $1.8 billion to the Troika due tomorrow. The European Central Bank responded by halting emergency lending to Greek banks.  With emergency aid to the country frozen, Athens has imposed capital controls to halt bank runs and…
  • Dignity

    Sinclair Noe
    26 Jun 2015 | 4:12 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 56= 17,946 SPX – 0.82 = 2101 NAS – 31 = 5080 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.48% OIL – .07 = 59.63 GOLD + 1.30 = 1175.20 SILV – .09 = 15.85   For the week, both the Dow and S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent while the Nasdaq fell 0.7 percent. Nike rose 4.3 percent to $109.71 and was the biggest boost to the Dow after reporting a better-than-expected quarterly profit, lifted as it sold more high-margin shoes and apparel at higher prices.   Micron Technology sank 18 percent to $19.66 a day after forecasting a further decline in prices of chips used…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

  • “To Lean or Not to Lean?” That is the Question

    iMFdirect
    1 Jul 2015 | 10:11 am
    By Stefan Laseen, Andrea Pescatori, and Jarkko Turunen Academics and policy-makers alike have long struggled with the question of whether to use monetary policy to dampen asset price booms – whether to “lean against the wind” or not. Can officials identify emerging asset price bubbles, what are the implications of bursting them, and is monetary policy the appropriate response to potential bubbles? These questions have become even more important to the policy debate in the wake of the global financial crisis, which was preceded by an unsustainable boom in sub-prime mortgage lending and…
  • U.S. Monetary Policy: Avoiding Dark Corners

    iMFdirect
    25 Jun 2015 | 7:47 am
    By Ali Alichi, Douglas Laxton, Jarkko Turunen, and Hou Wang A few weeks ago, the Fund suggested that the Federal Reserve could defer its first increase in the policy rate until it sees greater signs of wage or price inflation, with a gradual increase in the federal funds rate thereafter. Such a monetary policy strategy could help avoid the “dark corners” in which, as Olivier Blanchard has argued, small shocks can have potentially large effects. In this blog and accompanying working paper, we expand upon this idea. We also outline the potential benefits of an expanded communications…
  • Inequality’s Toll on Growth

    iMFdirect
    22 Jun 2015 | 10:37 am
    by iMFdirect Inequality is one of the defining issues of our time, so you may want to tune in to this interview with the authors of a new study that shows that  higher inequality leads to lower growth.  You can also read their blog here. It turns out that making the rich richer by one percentage point lowers GDP growth in a country over five years by 0.08 percentage points—whereas making the poor and the middle class one percentage point richer can raise GDP growth by as much as 0.38 percentage points.  
  • Financial Stability Committees: Learning from the Experts

    iMFdirect
    16 Jun 2015 | 8:15 am
    By Jorge Roldos and Alejandro Werner (Versions in Español and Português) Macroeconomists and financial sector experts need to talk to each other. Such communication is important to help identify and measure systemic risks as well as to coordinate and/or conduct macroprudential policies—rules that reduce instability across the financial system. The creation of financial stability committees, including in Latin America, have been a forum for precisely this—working together to share information about evolving risks, develop monitoring and mitigating tools, and to define the…
  • Growth’s Secret Weapon: The Poor and the Middle Class

    iMFdirect
    15 Jun 2015 | 8:22 am
    By Era Dabla-Norris, Kalpana Kochhar, and Evridiki Tsounta (Versions in  Español, 中文 , 日本語, عربي,and Русский) The gap between the rich and the poor is at its widest in decades in advanced countries, and inequality is also rising in major emerging markets (Chart 1).  It is becoming increasingly clear that these developments have profound economic implications. Earlier IMF work has shown that income inequality is bad for growth and its sustainability. Our new research shows that income distribution itself—not just the level of income inequality—matters for…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    WordPress.com News

  • New Theme: Libre

    Caroline Moore
    2 Jul 2015 | 10:00 am
    Happy Theme Thursday, all! Today I’m happy to introduce Libre, a new free theme designed by yours truly. Libre Libre brings a stylish, classic look to your personal blog or longform writing site. The main navigation bar stays fixed to the top while your visitors read, keeping your most important content at hand. At the bottom of your site, three footer widget areas give your secondary content a comfortable home. Customize Libre with a logo or a header image to make it your own, or use one of two custom templates — including a full-width template with no sidebar — to change…
  • Reinvented Video for WordPress

    Guillermo Rauch
    1 Jul 2015 | 3:52 pm
    Today, we’re announcing a complete overhaul of VideoPress, the service that has powered more than 3,000,000,000 video plays on WordPress.com and Jetpack-connected self-hosted WordPress sites around the world. We’ve made the next-generation VideoPress dynamic, responsive, and lightning fast to support the ever-evolving needs of content creators everywhere. Take a peek at what’s under the hood! Embed anywhere, play anywhere Out of the box, the new VideoPress is lightweight and responsive for beautiful playback on any screen, from smartphones to desktops. VideoPress works on all modern…
  • #LoveWins! LGBTQ Bloggers Make Their Voices Heard

    Hugo Baeta
    30 Jun 2015 | 10:30 am
    You might have noticed the rainbow banner across the top of WordPress.com over the weekend — our way of marking Pride month, celebrated by cities across the globe in June, as well as the US Supreme Court’s ruling legalizing same-sex marriage across all states. (The United States now joins 20 other countries, including my own, Portugal, in fully recognizing same-sex marriage nationwide.) Today is a big step in our march toward equality. Gay and lesbian couples now have the right to marry, just like anyone else. #LoveWins — President Obama (@POTUS) June 26, 2015 Here at…
  • July in Blogging U.: Blogging 101 and 201

    Michelle W.
    29 Jun 2015 | 10:40 am
    Note: Blogging 101 and Blogging 201 cover the same content each time they are offered. Have you just started blogging (welcome!), or are you looking to breathe new life into a blogging habit that’s fallen by the wayside? Blogging U. is a great way to get on track, with bite-size assignments, a supportive community, and staff to support you. We’re offering two courses in July — learn more: Blogging 101: Zero to Hero — July 6 – 24 Blogging 101 is three weeks of bite-size blogging assignments that take you from “Blog?” to “Blog!” Every weekday, you’ll get…
  • Celebrating 10 Years of WordPress.com & Automattic

    Mark Armstrong
    26 Jun 2015 | 5:29 am
    This year marks the 10th birthday of WordPress.com and our parent company, Automattic. We are proud to have served this community of millions: from writers, photographers, artists, and small and large publishers, to business owners and entrepreneurs. A quick bit of history: WordPress itself started as an open source project in 2003. WordPress co-founder Matt Mullenweg then built our company, and the free, hosted version — WordPress.com, what you see now — opened for business in the summer of 2005. Ten years, 2.5 billion posts, and 3 billion comments later, Automattic is stronger…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    EconomicPolicyJournal.com

  • The Voting in Greece Begins: Will It Go Oxi or Nai?

    4 Jul 2015 | 10:21 pm
    The Greeks vote today on whether Greece should accept an earlier deal proposed by EuorGroup officials. Polls have the two sides evenly balanced. There are no public data that break down the demographics and the inclinations of “yes” and “no,” but conversations around this city depict a populace that is split in two: Haves and have-nots, young and old, those bitten by austerity and those less
  • Greek Banks Prepare Plan to Raid Deposits

    4 Jul 2015 | 5:06 pm
    Greek banks are preparing contingency plans for a possible “bail-in” of depositors amid fears the country is heading for financial collapse, bankers and businesspeople with knowledge of the measures said on Friday, reports FT. The plans, which call for a “haircut” of at least 30 per cent on deposits above €8,000, sketch out an increasingly likely scenario for at least one bank, the sources said.
  • Mark Zuckerberg Predicts the Future of Technology

    4 Jul 2015 | 3:54 pm
    By Jennifer Booton Facebook Inc. CEO Mark Zuckerberg predicted some wild things at a town hall he hosted Tuesday night on his social network, including the ability for humans to one day talk to each other with their minds and for lasers to beam Internet access down to Earth. His comments come at an interesting juncture for the social network, which continues to expand into new fields of
  • Father Son High Level Interest Rate Duo: Interest Rate Manipulator and Interest Rate Trader

    4 Jul 2015 | 2:00 pm
    Sounds cozy. A periodic reminder: ECB President Mario Draghi's son, Giacomo, is an interest rates trader at Morgan Stanley https://t.co/RruOWJfXBj — Pedro da Costa (@pdacosta) July 2, 2015
  • German Official Suggests Greece Could Exit Eurozone 'Temporarily'

    4 Jul 2015 | 11:59 am
    Martin Schultz, the president of the European Parliament, has said that Brussels is ready and willing to give Greece emergency loans if a humanitarian crisis breaks out. Speaking to German newspaper Die Welt, he said (via Google translation): Maybe we will have to give emergency loans to bridge to Greece so that public services can be maintained and needy people get the money. Funds in
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    目が充血する原因って何?

  • コンタクトレンズがオシャレツールに!

    freemarketmojo
    7 Jun 2015 | 10:06 pm
    コンタクトレンズは今やおしゃれのツールですよね。 、見た目を気にして、メガネではなくコンタクトレンズを選んでいる人も多いでしょう。 最近は、度の入っていないカラーコンタクトレンズを使って、顔の印象を買えることも一般的になってきました。 コンタクトレンズはどのようにオシャレに取り入れられているのでしょうか。 ■やっぱり一番はカラコン!…
  • コンタクトレンズデビューのきっかけは人それぞれ

    freemarketmojo
    7 Jun 2015 | 3:07 am
    最近は、視力を矯正するためにメガネではなくコンタクトレンズを使用する人の方が増えているようですね。 今まではメガネを使っていたけれど、コンタクトレンズに換えた!という人も多いでしょう。 コンタクトレンズを使用する人はどのようなきっかけや理由で使用を決めているのでしょうか。 ■デビューのきっかけは様々 コンタクトレンズには色々な魅力がありますから、コンタクトレンズにするきっかけも人それぞれです。…
  • コンタクトレンズの種類について紹介!

    freemarketmojo
    6 Jun 2015 | 3:05 am
    コンタクトレンズデビューを考えている人のために、コンタクトレンズの種類について紹介したいと思います。 コンタクトレンズは、ソフトコンタクトレンズと、ハードコンタクトレンズに大きく分けられます。 どのような違いがあるのでしょうか。 ■ソフトコンタクトレンズ ソフトコンタクトレンズは、その名の通り、柔らかいコンタクトレンズの事です。…
  • コンタクトレンズの種類と平均的なコストは?

    freemarketmojo
    5 Jun 2015 | 3:05 am
    コンタクトレンズにはどんな種類があって、どれくらいのコストなのか気になるところですよね。 代表的なコンタクトレンズの種類と平均的な価格を紹介します。 ■ワンデータイプ ワンデータイプのコンタクトレンズは、ケアがいらないのでとても簡単に使えますし、目にとっても毎日清潔なレンズを使えるので一番安全です。。 ソフトレンズなので、目にも良く馴染みます。…
  • コンタクトレンズの種類いろいろ

    freemarketmojo
    3 Jun 2015 | 3:09 am
    ■1日使い捨て(ワンデータイプ)…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Visualizing Economics

  • Regional Economic Growth 1929-2008

    Catherine Mulbrandon
    16 Jun 2015 | 11:54 am
    We've Moved! Update your RSS reader. This feed has moved to: http://feeds.visualizingeconomics.com/visualizingeconomicsUpdate your RSS reader with this new subscription address to get your latest updates from Visualizing Economics. Or switch to an email subscription
  • The Wealth of Nations Over 2,000 Years

    Catherine Mulbrandon
    14 Jun 2015 | 1:19 pm
    We've Moved! Update your RSS reader. This feed has moved to: http://feeds.visualizingeconomics.com/visualizingeconomicsUpdate your RSS reader with this new subscription address to get your latest updates from Visualizing Economics. Or switch to an email subscription
  • DesignandGeography.com

    Catherine Mulbrandon
    29 Jul 2014 | 2:15 pm
    We've Moved! Update your RSS reader. This feed has moved to: http://feeds.visualizingeconomics.com/visualizingeconomicsUpdate your RSS reader with this new subscription address to get your latest updates from Visualizing Economics. Or switch to an email subscription
  • Average Household Income by US Counties

    Catherine Mulbrandon
    4 Jul 2014 | 9:42 am
    We've Moved! Update your RSS reader. This feed has moved to: http://feeds.visualizingeconomics.com/visualizingeconomicsUpdate your RSS reader with this new subscription address to get your latest updates from Visualizing Economics. Or switch to an email subscription
  • Jersey City 2014 Budget in 4 Easy Graphs

    Catherine Mulbrandon
    2 Jun 2014 | 3:11 pm
    We've Moved! Update your RSS reader. This feed has moved to: http://feeds.visualizingeconomics.com/visualizingeconomicsUpdate your RSS reader with this new subscription address to get your latest updates from Visualizing Economics. Or switch to an email subscription
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Carl Futia

  • Guesstimates on July 3, 2015

    3 Jul 2015 | 6:08 am
    September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2066-72. The 200 day moving average stands at 2045 in the ES. I will stay generally bullish unless and until the ES starts spending time below that level. I think the failure of the market to drop much below last Sunday night’s 2054 low in the face of bad news from Greece is a sign of strength and this leads me to believe this correction may well be over.QQQ:  Upside target is 113.TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%. Euro-US Dollar:  The Greek banking crisis makes it likely…
  • Attention Traders

    2 Jul 2015 | 9:09 am
    As you know I post the S&P E-mini trades I make in my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime  on this blog's Twitter feed (at the top of the right hand column). You can follow me here on Twitter for free but keep in mind that the trade postings are delayed 5-10 minutes. So far this year my seminar day trades have generated a return of 88% trading one contract per 10k in equity (almost 4 times the day trading margin requirement).Of course the real reason for joining your fellow traders at my seminar is to learn my trading techniques which you will find quite unusual. I focus on identifying…
  • George Lindsay vs. the Central Banks

    2 Jul 2015 | 6:12 am
    The Dow has reached a critical juncture in the still-ongoing three peaks and a domed house pattern identified by George Lindsay 60 years ago. I have labeled the Dow chart at the top of this post with the most bearish interpretation I can see. The schematic shows the ideal 3PDH formation with its associated labels.I think it is perfectly reasonable to interpret the May 19 top in the Dow as point 23, the top of the domed house and the bull market top. The entire sequence from points 15 to point 25 on the Dow chart is a very "flattened" version of the schematic but has all the important…
  • Guesstimates on July 2, 2015

    2 Jul 2015 | 5:55 am
    September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2067-83. The 200 day moving average stands at 2045 in the ES. I will stay generally bullish unless and until the ES starts spending time below that level. I think the failure of the market to drop much below its Sunday night 2054 low in the face of bad news from Greece is a sign of strength and this leads me to believe this correction may well be over.QQQ:  Upside target is 113.TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%. Euro-US Dollar:  The Greek banking crisis makes it likely that the…
  • Guesstimates on July 1, 2015

    1 Jul 2015 | 6:09 am
    September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2066-86. The 200 day moving average stands at 2045 in the ES. I will stay generally bullish unless and until the ES starts spending time below that level. I think the failure of the market to drop much below its Sunday night 2054 low in the face of bad news from Greece is a sign of strength and this leads me to believe this correction may well be over.QQQ:  Upside target is 113.TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%. Euro-US Dollar:  The Greek banking crisis makes it likely that the…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    True Economics

  • 4/7/15: Russia Services and Manufacturing PMIs: June 2015

    4 Jul 2015 | 11:11 am
    Manufacturing: "Operating conditions in Russia’s manufacturing sector continued to deteriorate modestly during June as output, new orders and employment all fell.""Price levels continued to rise, albeit at historically muted rates, while shortages of working capital and input inventories meant firms continued to meet their orders directly from stock wherever possible."Manufacturing PMI posted 48.7 in June, still in contracting mode, but a slight improvement on 47.6 in May. June marked 7th consecutive month of Manufacturing PMIs below 50.03mo average through June was 48.4 against…
  • 4/7/15: Another Nama Story That Won't Go Away...

    4 Jul 2015 | 5:15 am
    While everyone is obsessed with Greece, our little island is quietly slipping into yet another Nama-linked scandal. Here we go - some links on that, without a comment by me (for legal reasons, of course):"Nama property sale: Mick Wallace claims Belfast firm had £7m in bank after deal"  http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-33372786"Secret tapes stored on £7m Nama deal"  http://www.irishnews.com/news/2015/07/04/news/secret-tapes-stored-on-7m-nama-deal-162532/"Nama adviser had concerns over property sale 'wall of silence'"…
  • 4/7/15: Timeline for Greece and Some Anchoring

    4 Jul 2015 | 3:19 am
    Greece timeline for the weekend:Greece has missed the IMF and ECB payments this week with both non-payments having potential for triggering a mother of all defaults for Greece: the ESM/EFSF loans call-in (EUR145bn worth of debt).The EFSF/ESM decision so far has been to 'ignore' the arrears, noting that non-payment to IMF qualifies as "an event of default":"The Board of Directors of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) decided today to opt for a Reservation of Rights on EFSF loans to Greece, after the non-payment of Greece to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Following…
  • 3/7/15: Add ECB to IMF and Greek arrears can get ugly...

    3 Jul 2015 | 4:17 am
    Ah, remember Brodsky's "Urania is old than sister Clio" bit? Well, not in finance. Apparently, or allegedly, as reported in press, Greece is now in arrears (err... default, or not or whatever) not only on IMF, but also on ECB. See this.Which relates to 1993 loans, last repayment of which was due in June this year and amounted to EUR470mln. And which were not paid.The gyrations of Greek and Troika positions are out of the league of the ordinary.We had a threat to take EU to court over threats of forcing Grexit (see here). Which is quite bizarre (on the EU side), given the Institutions have…
  • 29/6/15: Greek Options & Default Contagion Mapping

    29 Jun 2015 | 9:41 am
    Couple of interesting charts on Greece.First up: what are the options?Source: @MxSbaInterestingly Greece already has capital controls, but yet to miss (officially) and IMF payment. Now, even if there is a deal, Greece will still have to go into the arrears on IMF, unless they found that proverbial granny's couch from which they can squirrel away few bob (EUR1.6 billion that is). We also have an already scheduled referendum. Which, according to the chart is a dead-end. Which it is, because its outcome is either rejecting a non-valid deal or accepting a non-valid deal. Though, presumably,…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: May 2015

    22 Jun 2015 | 8:00 am
    The latest release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that the national economic activity remained weak in May with the index rising slightly to a level of -0.17 from a level of -0.19 in April while the three month moving average also improved slightly to a tepid level of -0.16. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”. The…
  • Existing Home Sales Report: May 2015

    22 Jun 2015 | 7:51 am
    Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for May showing strong sales with total home sales rising 5.1% since April and climbing 9.2% above the level seen in May 2014. Single family home sales also increased with sales rising 5.6 from April but and climbing 9.7% above the level seen in May 2014 while the median selling price increased 8.6% above the level seen a year earlier. Inventory of single family homes increased from April to 2.03 million units rising 1.5% above the level seen in May 2014 which, along with the sales pace, resulted…
  • New Residential Construction Report: May 2015

    16 Jun 2015 | 5:51 am
    Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed mixed results with total permit activity increasing 11.8% since April while total starts declined 11.1% over the same period.Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased 2.6% from April to 683K single family units (SAAR), and rose 9.1% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005.
  • Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls and Civilian Unemployment May 2015

    5 Jun 2015 | 10:00 am
    Today's Employment Situation Report indicated that in May, net non-farm payrolls increased by a notable 280,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 262,000 jobs while the civilian unemployment rate increased slightly to 5.5% over the same period.Net private sector jobs increased 0.22% since last month climbing 2.53% above the level seen a year ago and climbing 3.52% above the peak level of employment seen in December 2007 prior to the Great Recession.
  • Employment Situation: Unemployment Duration May 2015

    5 Jun 2015 | 9:54 am
    Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed improved in May while still remaining distressed by historic standards.Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more declined to 2.502 million or 28.6% of all unemployed workers while the median term of unemployment declined to 11.6 weeks and the average stay on unemployment declined to 30.7 weeks.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The Economic Populist

  • Another 640,000 Drop Out of the Labor Force Causing Unemployment Rate Decline

    Robert Oak
    2 Jul 2015 | 1:13 pm
    The June employment report brings some OMG, jaw dropping, are you kidding me numbers.  Over 640,000 dropped out of the labor force.  As a result, the unemployment rate drops two tenths of a percentage point to 5.3%.  The labor participation rate dropped by -0.3 percentage points to 62.6%.  This new low of a labor participation rate has not seen since October 1977 when women and minorities were still were not in the workforce extensively.  While the United States does have baby boomers entering retirement, these figures are horrific. Share
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Increases to 53.5% for June

    Robert Oak
    1 Jul 2015 | 4:17 pm
    The May ISM Manufacturing Survey shows a slight improvement from last month, yet nothing to write home about.  The composite PMI increased by 0.7 percentage points to 53.5%.  Manufacturing employment accelerated and order backlogs dropped.  Prices for manufacturers didn't change for the month.  Overall the report is a more steady as she goes versus suddenly manufacturing is on fire as reported by some in the press. Share
  • Case-Shiller Index Shows Home Prices Continue to Rise

    Robert Oak
    30 Jun 2015 | 5:50 pm
    The April 2015 S&P Case Shiller home price index shows a seasonally adjusted 4.9% price increase from a year ago for the 20 metropolitan housing markets and a 4.6% yearly price increase in the top 10 housing markets.  Congratulations America, once again homes are not affordable. Share
  • 0.065% of Annual Budget Lost to Disability Over-Payments

    Bud Meyers
    29 Jun 2015 | 1:46 pm
    If one were to only listen to the economists at conservative Koch-funded think tanks, one might think that rampant "waste, fraud and abuse" in our entitlement programs is driving the U.S. into bankruptcy. And the mainstream media contributes to this fallacy. Share
  • The ancients knew the solution thousands of years ago.

    Chet Ruminski
    29 Jun 2015 | 9:23 am
    Jubilee. The birthplace of civilization is collapsing. Shouldn't the protection afforded to threatened animals be extended to human beings. A sustaining wage full employment should be the focus of government. When a lot of people are working money is moving and economies are functioning. In view of all laws regarding preservation of animals and the environment validate the meaning of "progress". Progress is essentially cheaper and faster. Not cheaper, faster and thriving economy. It all points to the function of money. Share
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Stock Trading To Go

  • Market Recap Jul 2, 2015

    Mark Hanna
    2 Jul 2015 | 2:52 pm
    Usually a market day post employment report is very volatile but most traders Thursday seemed to sit on their hands as they awaited the outcome of this weekend's Greek vote. After opening with a mild gap up, indexes sold off and ended the day with small losses. The S&P 500 fell 0.03% and the NASDAQ 0.08%. The markets will be closed Friday for the holiday.Greek Prime Minister Alexis... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • Market Recap Jul 1, 2015

    Mark Hanna
    1 Jul 2015 | 2:16 pm
    Indexes have spent the past 2 sessions working on a rebound from Monday's selloff. Expectations continue for a last minute "stick save" in the Greece situation - since Lehman Brothers whenever there is an issue globally central banks and governments blink. It just takes a lot of drama for it to happen and that is the continued course of belief with Greece. At some point in the future maybe... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • Market Recap Jun 30, 2015

    Mark Hanna
    30 Jun 2015 | 2:17 pm
    Indexes ended the first half of 2015 in a very similar fashion to most of the days this year - with little direction. The S&P 500 gained 0.27% and the NASDAQ 0.57%. The S&P 500 posted its smallest gain on record (going back to 1928) for the first half of the year, up just 0.20%. The index ended the quarter 0.24% lower, ending 9 consecutive quarterly gains. There is no shame in that... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • Market Recap Jun 29, 2015

    Mark Hanna
    29 Jun 2015 | 2:47 pm
    Many assumed negotiations would go to the last minute and then a "stick save" would appear this weekend between Greece and its creditors - as has been the pattern for years globally since Lehman Brothers was allowed to fail. Talks fell through Saturday and markets misbehaved in reaction Monday. That said there is still time for a kick save - it is just going to have to be after the Greeks... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • Market Recap Jun 26, 2015

    Mark Hanna
    26 Jun 2015 | 2:43 pm
    In this week's episode of deal or no deal, traders thought it would be deal early in the week and then became disappointed later in the week when nothing happened. So we go into the weekend awaiting a "miracle agreement" before June 30th. The S&P 500 fell 0.04% and the NASDAQ 0.62% Friday. So off we go to Greece...Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called an urgent cabinet meeting on... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Political Calculations

  • Inside the Fireworks

    3 Jul 2015 | 1:54 am
    Last year, videographer Jos Stiglingh risked a DJI Phantom 2 drone with a GoPro Hero 3 Silver by flying it through the heart of New York City's fireworks show. For your entertainment. Enjoy! Have a great Fourth of July this weekend!
  • The First Ad Ever for Campbell's Condensed Soups?

    2 Jul 2015 | 12:48 am
    Can you imagine a world where nobody knew what condensed soup was or how to prepare a meal with it? That's the problem that Campbell's John T. Dorrance faced after developing the commercial process that would extract water from soup while preserving much of its flavor in 1897. How Dorrance overcame that particular problem was discussed in a 2006 PhD dissertation: In addition to introducing this new product to consumers, especially housewives, Dorrance needed to persuade them to actually try the product. He was aware that condensed soup packaged in small tin cans might draw interest from the…
  • S&P Dividend Report: U.S. Economy Back in Contraction in June?

    1 Jul 2015 | 3:49 pm
    We're seeing something of a disconnect in the dividend data we track. First, according to Standard & Poor's Monthly Dividend Action Report [Excel Spreadsheet], the relative health of the private sector of the U.S. economy declined back to contractionary levels in June 2015 after having dropped below that level in the preceding two months: S&P's dividend report came as something of a surprise to us because the real-time dividend cut announcements that we track from Seeking Alpha's Market Currents and the Wall Street Journal's Dividend Declarations reports indicated that only 10 U.S. firms…
  • Closing out the Second Quarter of 2015 with the S&P 500

    30 Jun 2015 | 12:54 am
    Reuters has sounded some dire news: Wall St. tumbles as investors flee equities on Greek debt crisis U.S. stocks fell sharply in heavy trading on Monday and the S&P 500 and the Dow had their worst day since October after a collapse in Greek bailout talks intensified fears that the country could be the first to exit the euro zone. The European Central Bank froze funding to Greek banks, forcing Athens to shut banks for a week to keep them from collapsing. And Greece appeared to confirm it was heading for a default after a government official said the country would not pay a 1.6 billon euro loan…
  • Slitting the Greeks' Throats Deeper

    29 Jun 2015 | 1:06 am
    We have been following the negotiations between Greece's new government leaders and the nation's European creditors with some interest as the nation would seem to be diving headlong into defaulting on its debt interest payments at the end of June 2015. Last week, we finally got the details for how each of these parties propose to both cut the Greek government's spending and by how much they would hike Greece's taxes through 2016. As best as we can tell, Greece's economy is about to be struck with another body blow regardless of which bailout proposal might go forward as the stage is set for…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Calafia Beach Pundit

  • Yet another average jobs report

    2 Jul 2015 | 11:32 am
    For the past 4 years, the private sector has been adding new jobs at a 2.25% annualized rate, and the June jobs report released today was simply more of the same. That, coupled with meager growth in productivity, has given us the weakest recovery on record. The good new is that jobs continue to expand and the economy continues to grow, and things continue to get better. And there is no sign of another recession.The private sector has created almost 13 million jobs in the past 5 years, but the net gain from the prior expansion's peak has only been about 4 million. That works out to a net gain…
  • The wisdom of Thomas Sowell

    1 Jul 2015 | 2:14 pm
    Mark Perry today posts a great collection of quotes from Thomas Sowell that demonstrate how the force of logic can pierce the veil of politicians' rhetoric, especially when it comes to Obamacare.Here's just one of the 10 quotes. Read the whole thing.Even those who can believe that Obama can conjure up the money [to insure millions more people] through eliminating “waste, fraud and abuse” should ask themselves where he is going to conjure up the additional doctors, nurses, and hospitals needed to take care of millions more patients. If he can’t pull off that miracle, then…
  • More on why Greece is not a big problem

    1 Jul 2015 | 12:05 pm
    Greece was on the verge of default four years ago, and at the time I wrote a post on why a Greek default was not a big deal. One important point I made was that defaults don't necessarily make economies weaker—Greece has been squandering money for a long time, spending borrowed money on unproductive things, and that has already weakened its economy. I think it's worth reposting the whole thing here (with some minor edits), because it remains timely:------Debt musings and misconceptions (July 2011):The world is obsessed with the problem of too much debt and the threat it poses to…
  • The economy is doing just fine

    1 Jul 2015 | 11:09 am
    Recent economic releases show convincingly that the U.S. economy is back on the slow-growth path that has prevailed for most of the current recovery, after some notable weakness in the first quarter. It's even possible that the pace of activity has picked up a bit.Mortgage lending for new purchases has picked up significantly. In the past three months, as shown in the chart above, the Mortgage Bankers Association's index of new mortgage purchase applications has risen over 15%. This confirms other data which show that the residential housing market has strengthened.According to Case-Shiller,…
  • A Greek default does not rise to the level of a systemic risk

    29 Jun 2015 | 1:08 pm
    Greece is out of money, and its current government and economic policies are not supportive of a lasting solution. All the money it's borrowed has been wasted, flushed down the statist drain, in order to support Greece and its citizens in a style they can't afford. What's happening now is like musical chairs: when the Greek music stops (coming soon), someone (e.g., the EU, ECB and IMF) is going to have to record the loss on their balance sheet. The question is not whether Greece will default, but how it will do it and who will pay the eventual price.Meanwhile, despite the strong likelihood…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Donald Marron

  • Everything You Should Know about Taxing Carbon

    Donald
    25 Jun 2015 | 7:39 am
    Climate change is hot. From the pope’s encyclical to the upcoming United Nations conference in Paris, leaders are debating how to slow and eventually stop the warming of our planet. We economists think we have an answer: put a price on carbon dioxide and the other gases driving climate change. When emissions are free, businesses, consumers, and governments pollute without thinking. But put a price on that pollution and watch how clean they become. That’s the theory. And it’s a good one. But translating it from the economist’s whiteboard to reality is challenging. A carbon price that…
  • Return of the Cicadas

    Donald
    26 May 2015 | 6:32 am
    The world’s most fascinating insects live in the eastern United States. Periodical cicadas spend most of their lives underground, sucking up nutrients from tree and shrub roots. But every 13 or 17 years, they emerge en masse to reproduce. If you are in the right spot (this year, parts of Kansas and the Mississippi Valley), you can see thousands or tens of thousands all at once. (For information on Broods XXIII and IV, which are emerging this year, see magicicada.org). Film-maker Samuel Orr is making a full-length documentary of their remarkable lives. His promotion video is an outstanding…
  • Three Things You Should Know About Dynamic Scoring

    Donald
    27 Feb 2015 | 6:59 am
    The House recently changed the rules of budget scoring: The Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation will now account for macroeconomic effects when estimating the budget impacts of major legislation. Here are three things you should know as we await the first official dynamic score. 1. Spending and regulations matter, not just taxes You might think dynamic scoring is just about taxes. It’s not. Spending and regulatory policies can also move the economy. Take the Affordable Care Act. CBO estimates that the law’s insurance subsidies will reduce labor supply by 1.5 to…
  • Tax Policy and Investment by Startups and Innovative Firms

    Donald
    9 Feb 2015 | 11:29 am
    Our tax system includes many provisions to boost business investment, particularly by startups and innovative firms. In a new Tax Policy Center study, Joe Rosenberg and I find that those incentives are often blunted by other features of the tax code: We examine how tax policies alter investment incentives, with a particular focus on startup and innovative businesses. Consistent with prior work, we find that existing policies impose widely varying effective tax rates on investments in different industries and activities, favor debt over equity, and favor pass-through entities over…
  • Spin Alert: DOE Loans Are Losing Money, Not Making Profits

    Donald
    17 Nov 2014 | 8:32 am
    The Department of Energy snookered the media last week with a report that seems to show that its clean energy lending programs are profitable. “Remember Solyndra? Those loans are making money,” went a typical headline. Unfortunately, that’s not true. Taxpayers are losing money on DOE lending. Less than originally expected, and less than you would expect given media coverage of Solyndra, Fisker, and a few other failed loans. But smaller losses are still losses, not profits. To understand DOE’s spin, consider a simple example. Suppose your spouse borrows $10,000 from a bank at 5 percent…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Supply and Demand (in that order)

  • Update on the employment rate

    2 Jul 2015 | 7:22 am
    through June. Below uses the same methodology I displayed in the past. The self-employed component is volatile ... it would be nice to have some kind of error bands on this series ... but that is still work in progress.
  • Is Obamatrade the same as freer trade?

    18 Jun 2015 | 3:16 am
    The legal question du jour is whether Congress should allow special voting procedures (fast track) for international trade agreement agreements negotiated by the executive branch. This brings forth the age-old debate of the merits of free trade, as if free or freer trade is at stake with fast track.But that is jumping to conclusions without reading the text of the trade agreements.Experts jumped to conclusion, based on chapter titles alone, that the ARRA would help the economy recover, when in fact it prolonged the recession.Experts jumped to the conclusion that Obamacare would create…
  • Piketty's Feast

    16 Jun 2015 | 3:36 pm
    Revealed preference speaks volumes. Admittedly, my hardcover version of Capital in the Twenty-First Century was delivered “for free” by the publisher of this periodical, but the opportunity cost of retaining it was extraordinary last spring when its publisher and distributors remarkably ran out of stock and the market for used copies was surging. I did more than retain it: I also purchased the electronic version so that I could search its contents readily and accurately and fit the 685-pager in a coat pocket.More significantly, I read it, in some places carefully enough to dig into the…
  • Update on self-employment and total employment

    3 Apr 2015 | 9:32 am
    Again the headlines (today: "below expectations") are different from the totals including self-employment. Below uses the same methodology I displayed last month.
  • Burtless: Two Economic Mistakes in One Sentence

    30 Mar 2015 | 8:10 am
    Brookings' Gary Burtless writesIt seems odd that critics of the ACA emphasize the potentially adverse impacts of the law on workers forced to accept part-time jobs but fail to notice that their logic suggests more workers in total must be employed.Dr. Burtless should have read my book, or some of the labor economics literature dealing with part-time work cited therein, to see why he has the economic logic backwards, and in fact nothing here is "odd."My revised edition (to be published by University of Chicago Press), has the clearest explanation:A conventional wisdom [e.g., Burtless quote]…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • July 4th

    Andrew
    4 Jul 2015 | 6:00 am
    Lucky to have been born an American. The post July 4th appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • “Why should anyone believe that? Why does it make sense to model a series of astronomical events as though they were spins of a roulette wheel in Vegas?”

    Andrew
    3 Jul 2015 | 6:35 am
    Deborah Mayo points us to a post by Stephen Senn discussing various aspects of induction and statistics, including the famous example of estimating the probability the sun will rise tomorrow. Senn correctly slams a journalistic account of the math problem: The canonical example is to imagine that a precocious newborn observes his first sunset, and wonders whether the sun will rise again or not. He assigns equal prior probabilities to both possible outcomes, and represents this by placing one white and one black marble into a bag. The following day, when the sun rises, the child places another…
  • Humility needed in decision-making

    Andrew
    2 Jul 2015 | 6:00 am
    Brian MacGillivray and Nick Pidgeon write: Daniel Gilbert maintains that people generally make bad decisions on risk issues, and suggests that communication strategies and education programmes would help (Nature 474, 275–277; 2011). This version of the deficit model pervades policy-making and branches of the social sciences. In this model, conflicts between expert and public perceptions of risk are put down to the difficulties that laypeople have in reasoning in the face of uncertainties rather than to deficits in knowledge per se. Indeed, this is the “Nudge” story we hear a…
  • Recently in the sister blog

    Andrew
    1 Jul 2015 | 6:30 am
    When is the death penalty okay? A court with no Protestants How much does advertising matter in presidential elections? Bartenders are Democrats, beer wholesalers are Republicans The ambiguity of racial categories No, public opinion is not driven by ‘unreasoning bias and emotion’ Political science: Who is it for? Modern campaigning has big effects on voter turnout Political writing that sounds good but makes no sense How much are Harry Potter’s glasses worth? The post Recently in the sister blog appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • Where does Mister P draw the line?

    Andrew
    30 Jun 2015 | 6:44 am
    Bill Harris writes: Mr. P is pretty impressive, but I’m not sure how far to push him in particular and MLM [multilevel modeling] in general. Mr. P and MLM certainly seem to do well with problems such as eight schools, radon, or the Xbox survey. In those cases, one can make reasonable claims that the performance of the eight schools (or the houses or the interviewees, conditional on modeling) are in some sense related. Then there are totally unrelated settings. Say you’re estimating the effect of silicone spray on enabling your car to get you to work: fixing a squeaky door hinge,…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Capital Chronicle

  • That EU blacklist to save the tax system...

    23 Jun 2015 | 12:20 am
    At least the Netherlands, Ireland, Luxembourg and Malta did not join the hypocrisy by including anyone on their lists.Last Wednesday the EU Commission published a list of 30 countries, including Barbados, that it describes as non-cooperative jurisdictions on tax matters. The list is designed to tar-and-feather these countries, to reduce their access to international development funds and so pressure them into abandoning their international financial centres. It is an act of gross discriminatory bullying that will become the modern definition of colonialism. The Netherlands, Ireland and…
  • Largest national economies (plus forecast), 2002 - 2019

    7 Mar 2015 | 7:31 am
    Where did Canada, Spain and Mexico go... (Source: CNN via dadaviz)
  • Eurobonds vs da world: relative trumps intrinsic value

    20 Jan 2015 | 2:03 pm
    “We have this imminent bond-buying by the ECB -- at least that’s what everybody is expecting -- and if euro-zone yields are falling that makes Treasury yields relatively attractive, even at these rates,” said Philip Marey, a senior market economist at Rabobank Groep in Utrecht, the Netherlands.(link)The current state of play for selected sovereign 10 year bonds (with a minor highlight added to the FT graphic):A scant year ago 10 year Spanish, Italian and Irish credit was cheaper than the US equivalent. And that was at a time when Euro QE was already in the air and US inflation was…
  • Journalistic risk in 2014

    8 Jan 2015 | 7:47 am
    Reporters Without Frontiers produced this report for 2014 on the dangers of practicing their metier around the globe. France joined the top 5 yesterday on a dark, dark day and in a shockingly dreadful manner.
  • Merry Christmas from OPEC

    24 Dec 2014 | 6:49 am
    Nice little graphic from the US Global Investors website:(link here to article)Whatever OPEC says there is a feeling that the pre-shale days are done. But perhaps more on that in the New Year.Season's Greetings to All!
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    TheMoneyIllusion

  • Don’t bet against the Danes

    ssumner
    4 Jul 2015 | 6:12 am
    One of the important tenets of market monetarism is that countries with their own currency can can control their nominal exchange rate.  This means there is no such things as a “liquidity trap”; a country can simply depreciate its currency if it wishes to create inflation.  Switzerland did this in 2011 and held the exchange rate at a depressed level for more than three years.  But then the Swiss National Bank let the currency float higher, for reasons that still are not entirely clear.  Some argued that they didn’t want to buy up so much foreign exchange, and that this…
  • The new jobs report (plus computer bleg)

    ssumner
    2 Jul 2015 | 11:54 am
    Today’s job report was more interesting than the headline number suggested. There were 223,000 new jobs, and unemployment fell to 5.3%.  Yawn.  But beyond the headline: 1.  U-6 unemployment plunged to 10.5% 2.  Hourly wage growth slowed to 2.0% over the past 12 months Unemployment fell very rapidly for about 2 years, but has been falling at 0.1% every 2 months for the past 8 months.  This is normal as we approach the natural rate.  However people then say, “What about U-6?”  The decline from 10.8% to 10.5% shows that U-6 is still falling rapidly, and will soon arrive…
  • Confirmation bias and bubbles

    ssumner
    30 Jun 2015 | 6:04 pm
    I’ve done a number of posts pointing out that people are hard-wired to find patterns where they don’t exist.  Studies have shown that people will see “bubbles”, even in data that is generated to follow a random walk. Now of course just because most people would believe in bubbles even if they did not exist, does not in any way prove that they don’t exist.  Maybe they do.  But we always have to be on guard against cognitive bias. Bob Murphy had some fun earlier today commenting on a post I did on China.  His post is entitled Chinese Stock Market…
  • What Greece needs

    ssumner
    30 Jun 2015 | 8:24 am
    Yes, Greece should never have joined the euro.  But what about today?  What is their best option?  A letter written by 13 distinguished (Greek?) economists (including one Nobel Prize winner) is highly critical of the Syriza approach, and instead calls for neoliberal policy reforms.  Here’s an excerpt: A Grexit and move to a new drachma would be a complete disaster for Greece. The banks would collapse as depositors would withdraw their euros not knowing whether they would be able to withdraw them later and at what exchange rate. What would be crucial elements of a good agreement?
  • The American/European divide on Greece

    ssumner
    29 Jun 2015 | 7:25 am
    Is it just my imagination, or is there considerably more support for Greece in the US than in Europe?  As far as I can tell there is almost universal outrage in Europe over the recent actions of the Syriza government, except perhaps on the extreme left.  In contrast, I see significant support for Greece among US pundits.  Why? (Keep in mind that in most respects, opinion in Europe is well to the left of mainstream opinion in the US.)  Here are some possibilities: 1.  Framing effects.  In this recent article, Anne Roiphe indicated that at an emotional level she found herself sympathizing…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Scott Lincicome

  • Debunking the Myriad TPA/TPP Myths

    9 Jun 2015 | 10:29 am
    A trade policy nerd can only be subjected to blatant protectionist nonsense for so long.  So, after months of hearing/reading/seeing myths about Trade Promotion Authority, the Trans-Pacific Partnership and free trade more broadly, I finally cracked.  The result is a 3500+-word debunking of the nine most common myths (just like old blog times!).  The intro and direct links are below. Enjoy!+++++Top Nine Myths About Trade Promotion Authority And The Trans-Pacific PartnershipThe current debate over Trade Promotion Authority proves, once again, that the classic description of…
  • Kill the Jones Act; Kill It with Fire; Kill It Now

    22 Jan 2015 | 2:53 pm
    My latest in The Federalist (with help from an anonymous friend in the shipping industry):Lost in the never-ending debate about the KeystoneXL pipeline is great news for anyone who opposes cronyism and supports free markets and lower prices for essential goods like food and energy. Sen. John McCain has offered an amendment to repeal the Merchant Marine Act of 1920, also known as the Jones Act, which requires, among other things, that all goods shipped between U.S. ports be transported by American-built, owned, flagged, and crewed vessels....  The Jones Act and its related…
  • Yes, Of Course We Should End the Cuban Embargo

    23 Dec 2014 | 7:56 am
    My latest at The Federalist:Communist-hating lovers of liberty have offered myriad reasons to oppose the current Cuban embargo (see, for example, here and here), but today I want to focus on the most basic: over the last two decades, the United States government has utterly failed to justify its forcible, legislated ban on Americans’ freedom of travel, contract, and commerce. Because we live in a country of natural rights and limited, constitutional government, the state alone bears a heavy burden of proving that its restrictions on individual liberty are in fact warranted. In the case of…
  • Video: Heritage Event on Energy Exports

    12 Aug 2014 | 3:06 pm
    The Heritage Foundation has posted the video of last month's event on US energy exports.  The video is here and embedded below.  (I start around 53:00, if you're just desperate to watch me wave my arms around like a crazyperson.)Enjoy!This feed originates at the personal blog of Scott Lincicome (http://lincicome.blogspot.com).
  • Announcements

    21 Jul 2014 | 5:56 pm
    Although this blog has gone pretty quiet over the last few months (an understatement, I know), I've been keeping busy with plenty of (non-toddler-related) stuff, including--This Thursday, July 24, I'll be speaking at the Heritage Foundation at an event on "Energy Exports and Free Trade."  The lineup for the event is (if I do say so myself) pretty stellar, and the subject matter couldn't be more timely.  Here's the description:Expanding domestic energy production over the past few years has provided a welcome boost to the American economy. The federal government, however, has…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Jesse's Café Américain

  • Shanghai Gold Exchange Has 46.2 Tonnes of Gold Withdrawn - What Will China Do

    3 Jul 2015 | 5:45 pm
    There were 46.2 tonnes of gold withdrawn from the Shanghai gold exchange in the week ending June 26th. Since 2009 there have been a total of 9,076 tonnes of gold withdrawn from Shanghai. I have also included two slides from a recent presentation by Zhang Bingnan, the Chairman of the China Gold Association. In them he talks about China gold reserves reaching 9816.3 tonnes at the end of
  • Freedom of the Press Under Government Pressure In Japan

    3 Jul 2015 | 5:35 pm
    History continues to rhyme. "The Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan views with deep concern the recent statements at a meeting of ruling Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers concerning freedom of the press. In particular, we are alarmed by comments that call for putting pressure on corporations to pull advertising from media and to 'crush' newspapers in Okinawa that don't hew to party
  • Greece and Goldman: Can the World Afford the American Elite's Addiction To Abusive Banking Practices

    3 Jul 2015 | 1:29 pm
      Und das große Feuer in Soho sieben Kinder und ein Greis - in der Menge Mackie Messer, den man nicht fragt und der nichts weiss. Und die minderjährige Witwe deren Namen jeder weiss wachte auf und war geschändet - Mackie, welches war dein Preis? Kurt Weill, Bertholdt Brecht, Die Moritat von Mackier Messer, 1928 Here is an example of the consequences of the failure to
  • Robert Scheer: Plundering Our Freedom With Abandon

    3 Jul 2015 | 10:09 am
    "Poverty wants much; but greed wants everything." Publilius Syrus "The greed of gain has no time or limit to its capaciousness. Its one object is to produce and consume. It has pity neither for beautiful nature nor for living human beings. It is ruthlessly ready without a moment's hesitation to crush beauty and life." Rabindranath Tagore "Some people continue to defend trickle-down
  • Elizabeth Warren: The 14 Trillion Dollar Scam and the Unfinished Business of Financial Reform

    2 Jul 2015 | 8:01 pm
    1.  Financial Institutions should not be allowed to cheat people through confusing and complex products, or just plain lying about credit cards and mortgages. 2.  Financial Institutions should not be allowed to use taxpayers to pick up their risks through deposits or bailouts. We know what needs to be done.   Big financial institutions are flexing their political power to keep us from doing
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • The something for nothing culture

    chris
    4 Jul 2015 | 5:28 am
    One thing I'd like George Osborne to do in Wednesday's "emergency" Budget is to end the something for nothing culture. I know someone who has made almost £400,000 tax-free without working - equivalent to almost 20 years of getting the maximum welfare benefits the Tories are considering. Thanks to this, he is looking forward to a prosperous early retirement. This is surely unfair, given that so many younger people might have to work until they drop. That someone, of course, is me. And the £400,000 is the tax-free profit I made from rising house prices. In this respect, I am…
  • Poverty & ideology

    chris
    2 Jul 2015 | 6:49 am
    Iain Duncan Smith wants to shift the definition of child poverty from one based upon low incomes to one based on educational attainment, worklessness and addiction. What's at stake here is, as Amelia Gentleman points out, an ideological issue: is poverty due to individual failings or to the structure of society? Of course, some parents of poor children are feckless workshy druggies. But in a population of 64.6 million people, pretty much anything is true of someone. Two big facts, however, suggest that the link between child poverty and parental failure is weak. One comes from the…
  • Inequality, the state & the left

    chris
    30 Jun 2015 | 7:34 am
    To what extent can the state be used to advance leftist aims? This is one of the questions posed by the Greek crisis. But two things I've seen recently suggest the left in the UK should also be asking this. First, Fraser Nelson points out that kids who attend schools in the poorest areas are significantly less likely to get five good GCSEs than those in better-off areas. In this sense, state schooling is inegalitarian. As Heather Rolfe says, poor white kids get a poor deal from education. Secondly, the ONS says that in 2013-14 the poorest fifth of households paid a higher proportion of…
  • Inequality: the right's problem

    chris
    28 Jun 2015 | 5:22 am
    Are trends in UK inequality more of a problem for the right than left? I'm prompted to ask by the fact that recent years have seen two different trends. On the one hand, there's been increased equality between the moderately well-off and the moderately badly off: the 90/10 and 80/20 ratios for post-tax income have fallen back to 1980s' levels. But on the other hand, top incomes have risen; although the share of incomes going to the top 1% (Excel) has fallen since the recession, it is twice what it was in the mid-70s. One could argue that both these trends should worry the right…
  • Managerialism vs innovation

    chris
    25 Jun 2015 | 6:39 am
    Does management's pursuit of efficiency crowd out innovation? I ask because of two interviews I've seen recently. First is Matt Ridley's with Hon Lik, inventor of the e-cigarette, which describes how Mr Lik's invention was inspired by his own desire to quit smoking and facilitated by the fact that the "lab where he worked had a good supply of pure nicotine". Secondly, Toru Iwatani, the creator of Pac Man, tells the FT: Japanese game companies used to be places of total freedom. We had almost no orders, except to make fun games. Mr Iwatani, says the FT, is "the…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

  • Osborne must press the right buttons on tax and productivity

    David Smith
    5 Jul 2015 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Given the sheer unpredictability of events in Greece we cannot be sure that George Osborne’s first post-election budget, his seventh in all, will be the biggest...
  • Cut tax rates at the bottom, not at the top

    David Smith
    28 Jun 2015 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. There is more than a touch of déjà vu about George Osborne’s summer budget on July 8. In June 2010, when Osborne presented his first “emergency”...
  • Booming job market gives Britain a pay rise

    David Smith
    21 Jun 2015 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Apart from a Greek crisis that is in danger of giving a whole new meaning to the term brinkmanship – the usual idea is to stop...
  • First get your budget surplus, then try to keep it there

    David Smith
    14 Jun 2015 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Neither will welcome the comparison but George Osborne since the election reminds me of Gordon Brown in the weeks after Labour’s 1997 victory. Both hit the...
  • After wasting five years, Labour will struggle to rebuild economic credibility

    David Smith
    7 Jun 2015 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The general election is becoming a fading memory but its implications will be with us for some time. For the Conservatives, there is the task of...
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Project Syndicate RSS-Feed

  • Europe and Greece on the Brink

    Mark Roe
    4 Jul 2015 | 8:50 am
    Greece would suffer from an exit from the eurozone, but at least it would regain the ability to devalue its currency. For Europe, however, the risk is all on the downside, with the possibility that the crisis could reverberate through the continent’s real economy.
  • Achieving Education for All

    Irina Bokova
    3 Jul 2015 | 7:48 am
    To leave no person or country behind is the ultimate ambition of the development agenda that will be adopted at the United Nations this September. The first step toward achieving that goal is ensuring a high-quality education for all.
  • Reviving Islam’s Enlightenment

    Daniel Chirot, et al.
    3 Jul 2015 | 7:20 am
    Panicked attempts to march into Muslim countries and extirpate the threat have been counterproductive, only serving to increase the appeal of Islamic extremism. Western scholars who understand Islam and speak some of the many languages of its practitioners need to support these intellectual movements.
  • Education in Emergencies

    Anthony Lake
    3 Jul 2015 | 6:00 am
    Education not only boosts children’s chances of building a better life for themselves and their families; it also instills in them the skills and values they need to end conflicts and help rebuild their societies. That is why global education initiatives should include a focus on schooling in crisis-affected environments.
  • Europe’s Digital Wrong Turn

    Christopher Engman
    3 Jul 2015 | 4:20 am
    In May, the European Commission announced that it would create a unified digital market of 500 million consumers that would add €415 billion to the European Union’s GDP and create some 3.8 million jobs. Unfortunately, a recent decision on one key digital issue – data privacy – threatens to derail that effort.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    OilPrice.com Daily News Update

  • Frontier Oil And Gas Play With Growth Potential

    Editorial Dept
    3 Jul 2015 | 11:46 am
    Introduction Unlike some of its neighbors, Morocco is not a major producer of oil and gas. Next door, Algeria is a huge natural gas producer, the largest in Africa. It is also the continent’s second largest producer of oil. And its position on the Mediterranean provides it with great access to large markets. Through a series of pipelines, Algeria is a key supplier of natural gas to Europe, second only to Russia. But Morocco isn’t quite as well-endowed. Instead, Morocco is actually a net energy importer. The little bit of oil and gas…
  • Global Energy Advisory – 3rd July 2015

    Editorial Dept
    3 Jul 2015 | 11:33 am
    Politics, Geopolitics & ConflictEgyptWe are concerned about the potential fallout and wider implications of the assassination of a high-ranking Egyptian official, Prosecutor General Hisham Barakat, who was killed when a car bomb was detonated next to his motorcade in Cairo's Heliopolis district on Monday. Barakat is the highest-ranking government official to be assassinated in the past two years. This is a major show of force by unknown militants, and the security response will be heavy-handed. Two days later, militants launched a major strike…
  • Short-Sellers Beware This Coming Week

    Jim Hyerczyk
    3 Jul 2015 | 11:27 am
    August Crude Oil futures finished lower last week for a number of reasons. The market started the week under pressure and never looked back. The catalyst at the start of the week was the uncertainty about the financial crisis in Greece. The initial reaction by investors was not caused by the usual supply and demand factors per se, but by investors moving money out of risky assets.On Monday, the Greek government confirmed it wouldn’t be able to make its monthly loan repayment to the International Monetary Fund by the deadline on Tuesday, June…
  • Russia Taking Full Advantage Of Greek Crisis

    Nick Cunningham
    3 Jul 2015 | 11:21 am
    With Greece’s debt situation spiraling downwards, the European project is showing some cracks. The July 5 referendum could amount to a vote on whether or not Greece stays in the euro.In the meantime, the turmoil offers an opportunity for Russia to advance its interests. Of course, the EU is an absolutely critical trading partner for Russia, so if the bloc starts to fray at the seams, that presents financial risks to an already struggling Russian economy. Russia’s central bank governor Elvira Nabiulllina warned in June of the brewing…
  • This Week In Energy: Top 4 Reasons Oil Prices Are Heading Back Down

    Evan Kelly
    3 Jul 2015 | 11:01 am
    The big news from the U.S. this week was new data that showed that the weekly rig count…actually increased. That’s right, after 29 consecutive weeks of rig count declines, the industry may have finally hit bottom and could be on its way back. For the first time in seven months the U.S. saw additional rigs added into operations. Baker Hughes reported that an additional 12 oil rigs came into service for the week ending on July 2, although natural gas rigs declined by 9, for a net gain of 3 rigs.The data is evidence of ongoing efficiency…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    zentrader.ca

  • Societal Traps

    jeff pierce
    2 Jul 2015 | 11:23 pm
    Joe Rogan’s thoughts on how things are and how they should be.
  • Defend S&P 2100 – That’s An Order!

    chris
    28 Jun 2015 | 5:00 am
    By Chris Ebert The S&P 500 has hovered around the 2100 level quite a bit recently. That didn’t happen by chance; there’s a very good reason that level is so important right now. It represents a battle zone; and perhaps there is no better way to view that battle zone than by looking at some simple stock options. Covered Call options generally only return losses in a Bear market. Of course, there are always exceptions to any rule. But, for the most part, a Covered Call* (*see specific description below) will always return a profit during a Bull market, and only return a loss during a…
  • S&P 500 Temperature For Retirement Savers

    chris
    21 Jun 2015 | 5:00 am
    by Chris Ebert Not everyone has the time or the energy to follow the stock market. This can be a crucial flaw in an investment plan such as RRSP, 401k, 403b, IRA or similar types of accounts. Such accounts are designed to allow folks to contribute funds to the stock market when many of these same folks are working full-time jobs that preclude them from having the necessary time and energy to study the stock market. Thus, these investors are prone to wiping out their hard-earned investments when the stock market gets stormy. Most employer sponsored investment plans offer several ways to…
  • Option Scientist Kicks Off 5th Year At Zentrader

    chris
    16 Jun 2015 | 8:10 am
    Chris Ebert began contributing to zentrader.ca in 2011 in an effort to spread knowledge about options trading. Now beginning his 5th year at zentrader, Chris is as committed as ever to demystifying the world of options. Here is a link to the article that started it all ==>  Seeing Options from Both Sides Chris has a way of explaining options scientifically, yet spelled out in easy to comprehend everyday terms, which earned him the moniker OptionScientist. The Ask the Option Scientist segment published by zentrader has helped countless traders learn the ins and outs of option trading. In…
  • Astrology Update: June 14, 2015

    karen starich
    15 Jun 2015 | 10:47 am
    By Astrology Traders The following is an excerpt from this weekend’s Astrology Traders update. Real Estate In February I made a projection for housing stating that “by June 2015 the housing numbers will take a setback.”  On Friday June 12th Alan Greenspan said in an interview ” We haven’t come out of the bottom of the housing collapse, we are in a secular stagnation.”  The problem for many homeowners is the lack of equity.  Many homeowners still owe more on their home than their original mortgage.  Homeowners are either stuck, or feel intuitively, a…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Economy Watch

  • Jordanian Economy Survives Despite Regional Conflicts and Attacks by ISIS

    EW News Desk Team
    3 Jul 2015 | 1:18 pm
    Jordan, the Middle Eastern nation perhaps best known for its tourist destination of Petra, has never been one of the most powerful economies in the world. Even in the most stable of times, the economy would never have been considered exceedingly robust. Yet, amid all of the warfare and turmoil in the region over the last few years, a flood of refugees, and the recent onslaught of ISIS, Jordan's economy continues to grow at a respectable rate. Jordan, the Middle Eastern nation perhaps best known for its tourist destination of Petra, has never been one of the most powerful economies in the…
  • Africa is in Need of a Unified Voice in the Global Arena

    The Conversation
    3 Jul 2015 | 12:52 pm
    africa_2.jpg Home Page News Page One of the challenges facing African countries is that the global environment is rather unfriendly. This hampers their efforts to tap into global markets. <p>One of the challenges facing African countries is that the global environment is rather unfriendly. This hampers their efforts to tap into global markets. &nbsp;Additionally, African economies are hindered by them still depending heavily on external assistance. Domestic revenue mobilisation is substantially below potential and progress in this area is very slow.</p> One of the challenges…
  • Theories Abound Explaining Economic Failures in Africa, but not Successes

    The Conversation
    3 Jul 2015 | 12:33 pm
    africa.jpg Home Page News Page There has been a chronic failure among economists to explain growth in Africa. The methods and analytical angles they have used to explain relative failure in Africa came in the 1990s, but these were unsuitable for explaining growth in the 1960s or growth since the 2000s. <p>There has been a chronic failure among economists to explain growth in Africa. The methods and analytical angles they have used to explain relative failure in Africa came in the 1990s, but these were unsuitable for explaining growth in the 1960s or growth since the 2000s.</p>…
  • Major Mining Company Invests in Mongolia

    EW News Desk Team
    3 Jul 2015 | 10:41 am
    International mining firm, Rio Tinto Ltd., plans to invest anywhere from $250 to $350 million in Mongolia’s Oyu Tolgoi construction efforts, according to Reuters. Oyu Tolgoi is a massive gold and copper mine that is crucial for Mongolia's economy. The second phase of the construction process expects to commence in 2015. Development of the mine is just part of the government's larger scheme to modernize Mongolia. International mining firm, Rio Tinto Ltd., plans to invest anywhere from $250 to $350 million in Mongolia’s Oyu Tolgoi construction efforts, according to Reuters.
  • Investor Considerations Over the U.S. Holiday

    Marc Chandler
    3 Jul 2015 | 6:26 am
    fireworks.jpg Home Page News Page 1.  FX Price Action:  The US dollar is little changed against most of the major currencies.  The notable exception is the Australian dollar.  It has been sold to new six-year lows to near $0.7500.  Recall that is the level that RBA Governor Stevens previously identified as reasonable.  This illustrates one of the problems of nominal and bilateral exchange rate targets.  The continued negative terms of trade, shock (e.g., iron ore prices have renewed their decline) and knock-on impact from poor Chinese developments make…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Keegan Larson - See the Unseen

  • What Does Warren Buffett Read? The 10 Books on His Shelf

    Keegan Larson
    1 Jul 2015 | 9:31 pm
    Warren Buffett is a voracious reader. Over the years, he's read and recommended numerous books. The list below is a distillation of the 10 most common books recommended by Warren Buffett. The post What Does Warren Buffett Read? The 10 Books on His Shelf appeared first on Keegan Larson - See the Unseen.
  • What We’ve Learned in 2014: Desktop vs Mobile

    Keegan Larson
    8 Dec 2014 | 9:02 am
    As we leave 2014 behind and enter 2015, it is a good time to review a few analytics trends and see where the analytics are pointing us. I'm fortunate in that I get to see a cross section of websites that our company manages so I can see if a trend on one site can be found on multiple sites. I'll be posting a few of my favorite trends throughout the month as we wind down 2014. The post What We’ve Learned in 2014: Desktop vs Mobile appeared first on Keegan Larson - See the Unseen.
  • Track Viewport Size with Universal Google Analytics Events

    Keegan Larson
    21 Nov 2014 | 3:02 pm
    Why on earth would you want to track viewport size? Google Analytics already tracks screen resolution so what more do you need to know? The short answer is: a lot. Viewport size is important because it tracks this true size people are viewing your website – not just the size of their screen. I have a large 27″ iMac monitor (2560px wide) but my browser almost never have my browser full screen (as I write this, it is 1550px). A quick poll of my friends and coworkers shows that they almost never use their browser full width either (except maybe The post Track Viewport Size with…
  • Warren Buffett on Investing Small Sums

    Keegan Larson
    17 Oct 2014 | 3:46 pm
    Warren Buffett makes a statement in here that should excite most small investors. If he were investing the small sums of money most of us have access to, he would be able to do better, on a percentage basis, than he does now. This is for a variety of factors but it goes to show that even though we don’t have access to the billions of dollars Berkshire Hathaway does, we can still follow a certain set of investment principles to achieve good returns. Video transcript below Question: I read about your investment in Korean stocks for your personal portfolio. The post Warren Buffett on…
  • How To Bet On Horse Racing Using Investing Principles

    Keegan Larson
    13 Oct 2014 | 1:39 pm
    Horse racing has been around for a very long time and there are many supposedly “proven” systems you can buy that will “guarantee” you to win big in the long run. While Googling, I even found suggestions that the best way to make money is to have fun! If you like the name of the horse, bet on it. If your lucky number is 4. bet on that horse. While that method may be fun, you run the risk of following some potentially hazardous ways of thinking. There is no correlation to horse number or horse name. Intuition only runs The post How To Bet On Horse Racing Using Investing…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Central Bank News

  • Central Bank News Link List - July 3, 2015: ECB signals it could loosen bank funding if Greeks vote ‘yes’

    centralbanknews.info
    3 Jul 2015 | 8:24 am
    Here's today's Central Bank News' link list click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.ECB signals it could loosen bank funding if Greeks vote ‘yes’ (Reuters)Currency traders face shortened weekend as Greek vote looms (Bloomberg)What can the Swiss central bank do to stem the franc’s rise? (Reuters)Yuan climbs most this week since May on plans to open up market…
  • Central Bank News Link List - July 2, 2015: For Fed, a muddled jobs report even as U.S. employment expands

    centralbanknews.info
    2 Jul 2015 | 12:47 pm
    Here's today's Central Bank News' link list click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.For Fed, a muddled jobs report even as U.S. employment expands (Reuters))Brazil central bank chief more upbeat about taming inflation (Reuters)Brazil said to resist market expectation for 2016 rate cut (Bloomberg)Fed’s policy action to drive euro over coming year, not Greece-poll (Reuters)ECB…
  • Mexico changes policy dates to be after, not before, Fed

    centralbanknews.info
    2 Jul 2015 | 8:53 am
        The Bank of Mexico has changed its schedule for monetary policy decisions for the rest of this year so its meetings closely follow those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the policy-making body of the U.S. Federal Reserve.    "The new dates will allow the Board of Governors take account of the latest information about the Federal Reserve's policy decisions when making their deliberations," Mexico's central bank said.    The Bank of Mexico's board of governors is scheduled to meet four times in the second half of this year and has changed the dates…
  • Sweden cuts rate 10 bps, extends QE by 45 bln SEK

    centralbanknews.info
    2 Jul 2015 | 6:08 am
        Sweden's central bank cut its benchmark repurchase rate by a further 10 basis points to minus 0.35 percent and extended its purchase of government bonds by another 45 billion Swedish crowns, and said it "still has a high level of preparedness to make monetary policy even more expansionary if necessary," including intervention in foreign exchange markets.    The Riksbank, which has now cut its rate by 35 basis points this year, said inflation was rising and economic activity improving but the krona's exchange rate had risen and it was difficult to assess the…
  • Albania holds rate, ready to act on any Greece impact

    centralbanknews.info
    1 Jul 2015 | 12:58 pm
        Albania's central bank maintained its key interest rate at 2.0 percent and said it was carefully assessing any scenario that may arise in connection with the situation in Greece and is "ready to undertake all necessary measures to comply with our objective of price stability."    The Bank of Albania, which cut its rate by 25 basis points in January after cuts of 75 points in 2014, said the solution to the public debt crises in Greece will to a large extent determine the external economic and financial environment that it will face, and the country's economy and…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Business Insider

  • As Greece starts to vote there's a sense of dread about what's coming next

    Mike Bird
    5 Jul 2015 | 1:00 am
    ATHENS, Greece — On Saturday I sat with a group of Greeks who were war-gaming the various possible outcomes of Sunday's referendum. And there don't seem to be any good ones. The vote is a complicated mess. It asks Greeks to give a single vote on two official bailout deal documents that few will have read, and even fewer will have understood. It's not even clear that the deal being voted on is still on offer. Polls have been split pretty much straight down the middle. Nobody is sure who will win today. The opposition to the bailout deal, including the government, argue that a…
  • Task force to probe alleged Malaysia PM money trail

    4 Jul 2015 | 11:38 pm
    Kuala Lumpur (AFP) - A task force is investigating allegations that a probe into a Malaysian state-controlled investment fund found hundreds of millions of dollars were transferred to the prime minister's personal bank accounts, the attorney general has said.The allegations have set off a storm in Malaysia, with premier Najib Razak threatening to sue the Wall Street Journal for publishing the report, while one of his deputies called on authorities to investigate the claims.Attorney General Abdul Gani Patail said in a statement late on Saturday that a multi-agency task force was probing "the…
  • Chinese tourists boost Thai economy but stir outrage

    Marion Thibaut
    4 Jul 2015 | 10:45 pm
    Chiang Rai (Thailand) (AFP) - Accused of urinating in public, spitting on the street, or kicking a sacred temple bell -- free-spending Chinese tourists are receiving a mixed welcome as their soaring numbers help the kingdom's creaking economy.Growing outrage over the perceived disrespect of visitors from the Asian giant saw authorities print thousands of Chinese-language etiquette manuals earlier this year in a bid to keep their tourists in check.Last month it was a photo of a young girl peeing in the grounds of Bangkok's Grand Palace that triggered the latest round of enraged, and sometimes…
  • World Bank removes critical section from China report

    4 Jul 2015 | 9:20 pm
    Beijing (AFP) - The World Bank has removed a critical portion from a recently released report on China's economy, saying the section had not been adequately reviewed.On Wednesday, the Washington-based institution released its China Economic Update report in Beijing, which included a section urging the country to accelerate reform of its state-dominated financial sector.In blunt language, the World Bank warned that failure to address the issue could end "three decades of stellar performance" for the world's second-largest economy."Wasteful investment, overindebtedness, and a weakly regulated…
  • Polling opens in crucial Greece bailout referendum 

    4 Jul 2015 | 9:10 pm
    Athens (AFP) - Polls opened Sunday for Greece's crucial referendum on whether or not to accept international creditors' conditions for a bailout, with the EU on tenterhooks for an outcome which could shape the bloc's future.Almost 10 million Greeks eligible to vote have until 7:00pm local time (1600 GMT) to cast their ballots, with results on the plebiscite -- cast by many eurozone leaders as vote on whether to leave the single currency -- expected from 1800 GMT onwards.Join the conversation about this story »
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Business + Economy – Articles – The Conversation

  • Speaking with: Anthony D'Costa on the challenges facing India's economy

    2 Jul 2015 | 6:17 pm
    Prime Minister Narendra Modi has promised economic growth and good times ahead for India, but faces many challenges. Jane Dempster/AAPRecent IMF and World Bank forecasts show that India’s economy could take over from China as the world’s fastest growing economy in the next two years. The two organisations' tick of approval for the Modi government’s development agenda comes just over a year after Narendra Modi lead the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to a landslide win in the 2014 Indian elections, securing 282 seats and gaining majority control of the lower house – something that no…
  • Poison pill? Key events in the history of Greece and the eurozone

    2 Jul 2015 | 1:15 pm
    Many Greeks want to see their country stay in the eurozone, but fear yet another round of crippling austerity measures. Yannis Kolesidis/EPA/AAPTo navigate the timeline below, hover your mouse on the right and click on the arrow to move forward (and on the left to move back).
  • We've agreed to Investor-State dispute clauses before – it's all in the wording

    Craig Applegate, IGPA fellow at University of Canberra
    2 Jul 2015 | 1:14 pm
    Politicians and diplomats love free trade agreements; but the often secretive Investor-State dispute clauses bother the public. AAP/Dan HimbrechtsEconomists are often sceptical about the benefits of free trade agreements. By offering preferential market access to particular countries, they have the capacity to divert, rather than create trade. Diplomats and politicians, on the other hand, often love them. A lot of public opposition to preferential trade agreements in general, and the proposed Trans Pacific Partnership in particular - just weeks away - relate to the inclusion of Investor-State…
  • Grexiting: why you should not (only) blame the big bad creditors

    Fabrizio Carmignani, Professor, Griffith Business School at Griffith University
    1 Jul 2015 | 8:25 pm
    Blaming Greece's creditors for the ongoing drama would be badly incomplete. AAP/EPA/Britta PedersenThe Greek situation is continuously evolving. The deadline for Greece to repay a €1.5 billion (A$2.2 billion) loan to the IMF has now officially expired and with the referendum on creditors’ proposals on Sunday, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras seems prepared to make some last minute concessions. In a letter dated 30 June 2015 and addressed to the representatives of European Commission (EC), European Central Bank (ECB), and International Monetary Fund (IMF), Tsipras indicates the…
  • Why politicans fail to make the economic case for free trade

    Tim Harcourt, J.W. Nevile Fellow in Economics at UNSW Australia
    1 Jul 2015 | 5:42 pm
    Trade Minister Andrew Robb continues to argue the case for the controversial Trans Pacific Partnership. Dan Himbrechts/AAPAustralia’s Trade Minister Andrew Robb is regularly lauded as one of the most effective performers in the federal government for finalising his “trifecta” of free trade agreements with South Korea, Japan and China – three of our fourth biggest trading partners. And this week Prime Minister Tony Abbott has been out selling an upcoming review to Australia’s existing free trade agreement with Singapore. But while the political benefits of FTAs are generally accepted…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    SurvivalBlog.com

  • Notes for Sunday – July 05, 2015

    Hugh James Latimer
    4 Jul 2015 | 11:11 pm
    On July 5, 1810, P. T. Barnum, the great American showman, was born. He died on April 7, 1891. He is often credited with the phrase “There is a sucker born every minute.” While the actual attribution of the quote is suspect with many versions of the story abounding, the concept remains valid, especially when one considers the economic state of the entire world. Only in a world of fools could the economy of entire nations, indeed the vast majority of the world, be driven solely off of debt. o o o We have reached the halfway point in round 59 of the writing contest. If you want your…
  • Aquaponics, by A.M. in NC

    Hugh James Latimer
    4 Jul 2015 | 11:10 pm
    Introduction As a forward to this article, let me tell you a little about myself. I’ve been an avid daily reader of SurvivalBlog for about four years now and an avid prepper since my days as a Boy Scout. I’m 30 years old with a wonderfully supportive wife and two adorable girls. About two years ago, after being introduced to the idea of aquaponics, I started thinking about how much the cost would be to get started, how much more of my time toward prepping this would take up, and then finally how I would convince my wife that this would actually allow me to spend less time in the…
  • Letter Re: Illusive Self Sufficiency

    Hugh James Latimer
    4 Jul 2015 | 11:09 pm
    Hugh, When I read the letter from RG, I thought, “Did my husband write this?” We have been in the same spot, also at year three of striving for preparedness and self sufficiency. I wrote SB over a year ago; it was the article on Year One at the New Retreat. We have continued our preps and property improvements and are still working very hard. I suspect we will never reach that point where we have thought of everything. Since my husband travels as part of his work, a great deal of the work around the property falls to me. When he is home, he really does a lot and it’s great. But…
  • Economics and Investing:

    Hugh James Latimer
    4 Jul 2015 | 11:09 pm
    Rosy jobless numbers cover up bad news. – J.F. o o o Famous Rothschild Banking Dynasty Facing Fraud Charges In France o o o Non-working America soars by 640,000 in one month to new record of 93.6 million. Not in the labor force Americans up 11 million since 2010. o o o Sugar, flour, rice: panicked Greeks stock up on essentials – G.G. o o o Greek banks prepare plan to raid deposits to avert collapse. – G.G. o o o Tax Like It Is July 4, 1776. – PLC
  • Odds ‘n Sods:

    Hugh James Latimer
    4 Jul 2015 | 11:08 pm
    An interesting multi-part look at the history of the ancient world: Production Versus Plunder o o o Government Trolls Are Using “Psychology-Based Influence Techniques” On YouTube, Facebook And Twitter – H.L. o o o Hackers Installed Sophisticated Malware on U.S. Computers. Why Doesn’t Anyone Care? – G.P. o o o Tragic tale of the German who wouldn’t salute Hitler Lives, families, fortunes, and honor. – G.P. o o o Americans Don’t Deserve to Celebrate July 4th This Year. – B.B.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Trading Heroes

  • Is Forex Trading a Waste of Time? Only if You Break One Simple Rule

    Hugh Kimura
    30 Jun 2015 | 7:29 am
    If you are just getting started in Forex trading, you might be wondering if it is a waste of time. Oddly enough, if you have been trading for awhile and are not profitable yet, Forex trading may also seem like a waste of time. Whichever category you fall into, this post will point you in the right direction. The post Is Forex Trading a Waste of Time? Only if You Break One Simple Rule appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • 3 Ways to Diversify Forex Trading

    Hugh Kimura
    16 Jun 2015 | 11:20 am
    It is great to focus all of your energy on Currency Trading. That is how you get results. But that is not the only thing in the world and you may find it helpful to diversify your investments. This post will give you three alternatives that you might want to consider. They won't work for everyone, but they may help you. The post 3 Ways to Diversify Forex Trading appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • Risk Free Trades – The Risk Free Asset Under Your Nose

    Hugh Kimura
    9 Jun 2015 | 7:43 pm
    Yes, there is no such thing as completely risk free trades. But there are some trades that come pretty close. In fact, I would consider them no-brainers. This is one of those trades. Find out how to setup the trade, why it has the potential to work and the trade-offs that are involved. The best part is that anyone can do it and it is especially easy if you live in the US. The post Risk Free Trades – The Risk Free Asset Under Your Nose appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • Study Of Engulfing Candles On The EURUSD Weekly Chart

    Hugh Kimura
    14 May 2015 | 3:47 am
    Alright, I’ve been talking about this for a couple of weeks and here it is! This is the first in a series of studies that I’m going to be doing on building trading systems. It is a little different than what you are used to on other sites. Keep in mind that regardless of what we […] The post Study Of Engulfing Candles On The EURUSD Weekly Chart appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • Trading System Development – Intro To Historical Analysis

    Hugh Kimura
    14 Apr 2015 | 2:52 am
    This is an introduction to a new series that I am starting on Historical Analysis. In each study, I will provide the chart pattern or trading setup and show you every single time this setup happened in the past. But before we begin, there are a few things that we have to get straight. The post Trading System Development – Intro To Historical Analysis appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    OpenMarkets

  • MARKET UPDATE: GOLDILOCKS NUMBER

    OpenMarkets
    2 Jul 2015 | 12:44 pm
    With a shortened week this week, unemployment was moved up a day.  Jack talks about that “Goldilocks” number that came out today and what it could mean for the markets.
  • Awards and Returns: Managed Futures Has Room to Grow

    Evan Peterson
    30 Jun 2015 | 8:00 am
    The Managed Futures Pinnacle Awards honored the best of the managed futures industry in Chicago June 24. The event spotlights recent successes for Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) in an area of investing not always known or understood – an alternative to equities and bonds that includes positions in commodity and financial futures markets. In the investing industry, where success is usually determined by returns, an awards ceremony might seem like a vehicle to reinforce what we already know. It’s a point not lost on Sol Waksman, founder of BarclayHedge, which co-sponsored the Pinnacle…
  • Market Update: Greece and Equities

    OpenMarkets
    29 Jun 2015 | 9:47 pm
      The end of the month and a short holiday week in the United States accompany the events in Greece to create an active week for the markets. Jack looks at why the Greek situation has had an effect on U.S. equity markets.
  • Weekly Outlook: Greece’s Impact

    OpenMarkets
    29 Jun 2015 | 8:05 am
      It’s a big week for report releases in financial and commodity markets with home index data, planted crop acreage and monthly job numbers released this week. However, the biggest impact might come from Greece, where banks are closed Monday after the European Central Bank said it will not extend an emergency loan program, and the country will likely miss a debt payment due to the IMF Tuesday.  The situation is already impacting FX markets.   Economic Calendar Monday: US: Pending Home Sales Index  10:00 AM ET US: Dallas Fed Mfg Survey  10:30 AM ET US: St Louis Federal Reserve…
  • MARKET UPDATE: MARKET DRIVERS

    OpenMarkets
    26 Jun 2015 | 2:04 pm
    It’s the last Friday in June and we’re still dealing with the saga in Greece which is moving the market.  Aside from that, today is the first day to buy stocks and have them settle in the second half of the year.  Jack discusses this and other factors driving the market.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    What is Economics?

  • The Unfair-Competition Argument for Restricting Trade

    mnaveed
    4 Jul 2015 | 3:59 am
    It is generally argued that free trade is only possible if all countries play on a level playing field. It is not fair if companies in one country are compelled to comply with different regulations than companies in another country or if goods produced in a different country are subsidized. Differing rules make it hard for companies in these types of situations to compete internationally. One of the toughest arguments for trade protectionism is the probability of unfair competition to develop and especially for developing nations with no infrastructure, businesses and penalty enforcement.
  • The Infant-Industry Argument for Restricting Trade

    mnaveed
    4 Jul 2015 | 3:57 am
    The infant-industry argument for restricting trade is an economic argument favoring trade in a protectionist approach. According to the argument, when an industry develops, especially in areas that are not industrialized, there are particular disadvantages it faces. There are no financial economies of scale to be gained such as financial advantages that accrue when costs are minimized in a big industry. The advantages could also take the form of the capacity to make bulk purchases, better rates for loans and also efficient allocation of personal resources. With this disadvantage in mind, some…
  • The National Security Argument for Restricting Trade

    mnaveed
    4 Jul 2015 | 3:54 am
    It is often argued that an industry needs protection when it comes to matters concerning the security of a nation. This argument is used to ensure the industry does not face foreign competition. It is legitimate in certain instances such as printing a nation’s currency or manufacturing H-bombs but the argument of national security may not be applicable to most services and goods. The national security argument for restricting trade would also be credible where a country has no comparative or absolute advantage in the production of the product; it would not have an alternative but to trade.
  • Measuring a Nation’s Income

    mnaveed
    4 Jul 2015 | 3:51 am
    When making a judgment of whether an economy is performing well or not, it is very natural to look at the aggregate of national income that the people are earning. For the whole economy, income needs to be equal to expenditure, since: • Each transaction must have a seller and a buyer; and • Each dollar spent by a buyer is an income dollar for a seller. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Net National Income (NNI) and Net National Product (NNP) are some of the measures that are commonly used in measuring a nation’s income. For a number of reasons, these measurements are not easy to…
  • The Protection as a Bargaining Chip Argument for Restricting Trade

    mnaveed
    4 Jul 2015 | 3:49 am
    When our trading partners bargain with us, the protection as a bargaining chip argument for restricting trade becomes useful. A trade restriction threat may be useful in eliminating already-imposed trade restrictions by a government that is foreign. This means that if somebody attempts to put a tariff on a product that you do not want to be subjected to tariffs, you may threaten to put a tariff on a product they would not want to be subjected to tariffs unless they remove that tariff. The tariff may eventually be removed. For instance, the United States may put a threat that limits French…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    eWallstreeter

  • A Harvard professor explains how we can revitalize the American Dream

    4 Jul 2015 | 5:59 pm
    At AEI’s recent event, “The American dream in crisis,” Robert Putnam, Charles Murray, and William Julius Wilson discussed problems brought to light in Putnam’s new book, “Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis.” The book expounds upon several alarming trends – the widening income gap, growing class segregation, and the disappearance of working-class communities – and investigates their implications for America’s children. Putnam’s presentation highlighted several startling
  • Divided Greece; Eve of Referendum Polls Split; 20,000 Rally 'No' and 20,0000 Rally 'Yes'; Back Home From 17 Days in Iceland

    4 Jul 2015 | 1:54 pm
    Eve of Referendum Polls SplitOn the eve of the referendum, Greek voters are undecided how to vote. If one believes the polls, it's essentially a dead heat with 43\% 'no', 42.5\% 'yes' and the rest undecided. Of course, the accuracy of the polls is seriously in question.Divided GreeceBloomberg reports Greece Divided on Eve of Referendum to Chart New Economic Course“What is certain is that come Monday, Greece won’t be facing just massive economic problems; it will be a deeply divided country,�
  • 'Take the bailout', Greek voters say—just barely

    4 Jul 2015 | 1:36 pm
    Greek voters are torn over its bailout, with the 'yes' camp only marginally outweighing the 'no' voters,
  • Luck may not be a lady if the IRS has its way

    4 Jul 2015 | 10:07 am
    Rather than "jackpot", a new IRS change may have Las Vegas gamblers yelling "paperwork" instead.
  • 'Professor Hubbard’s Claim about Wage and Compensation Stagnation Is Not True'

    4 Jul 2015 | 9:41 am
    Larry Mishel: Professor Hubbard’s Claim about Wage and Compensation Stagnation Is Not True: ...A New York Times editorial points out ... that Glenn Hubbard, a leading conservative economist and key adviser to GOP candidate Jeb Bush, does not seem to...
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    richardblundell.net

  • Failing to personalise engagement is putting retail brands at risk

    Richard
    27 Jun 2015 | 12:14 am
    Personalised engagement is believed to be the winning formula for consumer brands If you believe a PwC/Strategy& study I saw yesterday, then personalised engagement will generate 20% more revenue from existing customers.   However the world moves on and many retailers are falling behind consumer expectations about what is and isn’t personalised.   In five years, consumers […]
  • Future forces of disruption – thoughts on KPCB’s 2015 Internet Trends

    Richard
    30 May 2015 | 9:23 pm
    Of the 197 slides in Mary Meeker's 2015 internet trends report, three stood out. They talked to market disconnects where forces of disruption are yet to fully play out.
  • The three megatrends driving change in retail

    Richard
    15 May 2015 | 9:32 pm
    It’s a really exciting time if you work in retail and consumer industry in Australia right now. It might also seem like a very daunting time, with many of the traditional rules of business being rewritten. The disruption that started in the sector about ten years ago with the high growth of e-commerce has fed […]
  • How the digital tide is turning in favour of Books and Music retailers

    Richard
    26 Jan 2015 | 2:34 am
    Specialist music and book retailers are recovering from 10 years of digital change - vinyl LPs, hardbacks and live events are their savours
  • Appetite for Disruption – has Apple lost theirs?

    Richard
    20 Dec 2014 | 6:40 pm
    In 2011 Apple disrupted the SMS text message by launching iMessage. Because it was set as the default means of sending message iPhone to iPhone, a large chunk of the global SMS messaging traffic disappeared overnight. Why then has it not done the same for FaceTime Audio, its equivalent voice-over-internet phone call system?
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The Last Embassy

  • ACA/Obamacare: 2016 Sticker Shock as Rate Increases Skyrocket

    W.E. Heasley
    4 Jul 2015 | 2:29 am
    ‘WASHINGTON — Health insurance companies around the country are seeking rate increases of 20 percent to 40 percent or more, saying their new customers under the Affordable Care Act turned out to be sicker than expected. Federal officials say they are determined to see that the requests are scaled back. Blue Cross and Blue Shield plans — market leaders in many states — are seeking rate
  • King v. Burwell: Two American Health Insurance Markets?

    W.E. Heasley
    23 Jun 2015 | 11:19 am
  • King v Burwell: Differing Views of Health-care Spending Post HealthCare.gov

    W.E. Heasley
    20 Jun 2015 | 2:11 am
    ‘NEW YORK (Reuters) - As the U.S. Supreme Court prepares to rule on whether people in 34 states can continue to receive Obamacare health insurance subsidies, economists are projecting billions of dollars in lost healthcare spending for hospitals, drugstores and drugmakers if the justices say the payments are illegal. The immediate consequences of such a ruling would fall on the 6.4 million
  • ACA/Obamacare: Government Failure to the Tune of $3 Billion

    W.E. Heasley
    18 Jun 2015 | 3:11 am
    “The Obama administration cannot account for nearly $3 billion in subsidies paid to insurance companies in 2014, according to a government watchdog. Those dollars are untraceable because the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) did not have “effective” methods to do so, according to a report from the department’s inspector general. That lack of internal control means "a
  • Insight into Health-Care Supply and the Price of Health-Care

    W.E. Heasley
    15 Jun 2015 | 2:35 am
    ‘For over a century, we've regarded health care as qualitatively different from other goods and services – an economic Oz, where the normal rules of nature don't apply. In doing so, we waste resources, keep prices artificially high and delay life-saving and life-improving technologies. But this will soon pass.’ ‘In December, Dr. Naoki Ikegami told The New York Times: "[T]he U.S. health care
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    FTMDaily.com - Geopolitical Analysis, Economic Insights, and Investing Ideas

  • Think Coal Could Rebound? Here are Four Stocks to Watch

    Jerry Robinson
    2 Jul 2015 | 6:06 am
    It is not unusual to pocket 100%-200% profits (or more) if you time your entry right at the bottom of a commodity cycle. The post Think Coal Could Rebound? Here are Four Stocks to Watch appeared... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • Weekly Market Barometer Charts – Now Online

    Jerry Robinson
    1 Jul 2015 | 2:50 pm
    View our latest Market Barometer trend analysis and commentary on U.S. stocks and precious metals. The post Weekly Market Barometer Charts – Now Online appeared first on FTMDaily.com -... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • TOM CLOUD: Investing in Gold amid the Greek Meltdown

    Tom Cloud
    1 Jul 2015 | 1:01 pm
    Listen to Jerry Robinson's interview with precious metals advisor, Tom Cloud. The post TOM CLOUD: Investing in Gold amid the Greek Meltdown appeared first on FTMDaily.com - Geopolitical Analysis,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • Mastercard Unleashes the Next Step Towards Cashless Society

    FTMDaily.com
    1 Jul 2015 | 12:58 pm
    Global payments giant announces plans to approve purchases by scanning your face. The post Mastercard Unleashes the Next Step Towards Cashless Society appeared first on FTMDaily.com - Geopolitical... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • Global Currency Ratings Report – July 2015

    FTMDaily.com
    1 Jul 2015 | 11:58 am
    See which currencies we are buying in July... The post Global Currency Ratings Report – July 2015 appeared first on FTMDaily.com - Geopolitical Analysis, Economic Insights, and Investing Ideas. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    BusinessClimate.com Blog

  • In High Gear: Rising Demand in Trucking Fuels Job Growth

    Emily McMackin
    3 Jul 2015 | 3:30 am
    Trucking is on the move. The industry is experiencing fast growth, adding 7,400 jobs in June, 19,000 jobs over the past three months and 43,300 jobs over the past year, according to newly released numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Of the 223,000 jobs added to the economy in June, at least 17,000 were jobs for transportation and warehousing companies – with more than half of that growth coming from the trucking industry. June’s positive job growth brought the U.S. unemployment rate down to a record low at 5.3 percent. Along with trucking and warehousing, retail was also a…
  • Growth Spurt: Agriculture Thriving in the Sun Belt, the Heartland

    Emily McMackin
    26 Jun 2015 | 10:14 am
    Agriculture is a major economic driver and job creator, but it is one of the most uncelebrated sectors of the U.S. economy. The industry accounts for nearly 3.75 million jobs – less than 1 million short of the 4.3 million jobs in the tech sector – and that number is growing as the world’s food consumption rises. In 2014, the dollar value of U.S. agricultural exports rose to a record $152.5 billion, accounting for nearly 9 percent of total U.S. goods export for the year. Agriculture is one of few U.S. economic sectors that has continued to post a trade surplus, bringing in $42…
  • Where the Jobs Are: Lower-Cost Tech Hubs Gaining Ground

    Emily McMackin
    19 Jun 2015 | 3:30 am
    Technology is becoming a vital part of the job growth landscape, and cities doing the best job of creating jobs all have strong tech sectors or growing ones, as evidenced by a newly released Forbes list of the Best Big Cities for Jobs in 2015. With the boom in the energy sector beginning to weaken, tech has taken the lead. Job growth is the strongest right now in tech-oriented cities, particularly those in the Sun Belt that benefit from lower costs. Compiled by economist Joel Kotkin, the rankings are based on short-, medium- and long-term job creation, dating from 2003 to the present, and…
  • Anchor Employers, Entrepreneurs and Spinning In

    Bill McMeekin
    17 Jun 2015 | 3:30 am
    It’s seems entirely appropriate that a seminar on anchor employers providing spinoff entrepreneurship opportunities was held in Madison, WI, last week. The Madison region, after all, is home to Epic, the health-care information technology giant that employs 8,000 people in the area – and has been the starting point for a legion of entrepreneurs who worked for the company and then branched out on their own. That Madison has been able to capture a number of those entrepreneurs that came out of Epic is no accident, but owes in no small part to the network of  resources that support…
  • Food Manufacturing: The Roots of New Opportunity

    Bill McMeekin
    11 Jun 2015 | 3:30 am
    For Jan Rogers, executive director of the Southern Idaho Economic Development Organization, it is a simple proposition. When the Great Recession took root, the impact was certainly felt in the region, but not to the extent nor length other parts of the country experienced. Why? Food, more specifically Southern Idaho’s food manufacturing cluster. “Everybody still has to eat,” Rogers says. Make no mistake: While Southern Idaho has worked to diversify its economy, it is “all in” on food, says Rogers, a panelist at a food and beverage production seminar at the…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Latest blog entries

  • Record Busting Stock Market Still Below 1999 Purchasing Power

    12 Jun 2015 | 6:12 am
    In the search for unvarnished truth, sometimes you have to look to unconventional sources. My personal favorite cutter of financial flim flam is the historical price of a Big Mac in the United States. Two all-beef patties on a sesame seed bun are a much more constant measure of value than the US dollar. Considering the USD has lost 98 percent of its purchasing power in the past 100 years, and the Big Mac is one of the most constant and unchanging products on earth, I'd say we have a winner, certainly between the two. I've analyzed the stock market using cheeseburger prices before, as the…
  • The REAL Top 10 Deadliest Dog Breeds

    10 Jun 2015 | 11:10 am
    Shades of Thomas Paine is about the unbiased search for truth, typically truth regarding the lies spread by the powerful for their own benefit, but occasionally truth regarding dogs or brownies.  Pit bulls have become a flashpoint of debate, with supporters saying pit bulls are as gentle as a beagle and detractors saying any pit bull can and will snap at any time. As the author of SOTP, I wanted to know the truth. Not opinion, but fact. I found a treasure trove of information at dogsbite.org, in an exhaustive study of dog attack fatalities from 1982 to 2014. It separated the dog attack…
  • Cultural Facism: The War on Unpopular Opinion

    7 Jun 2015 | 5:24 am
    In 1915, the mainstream view of black Americans was about as poor as it ever was. The KKK was wildly popular, and millions of publicly respected men joined up. And, around this time, courageous men and women set about to change the culture. Over the next 50 years it became harder and harder to say blatantly racist things in public, and this change came at tremendous cost to the changers. Some were killed. Some were beaten, others were jailed. Likewise, gay rights blossomed in this country somewhat later. Immensely courageous men risked death to be "out".  Lately though, my generation of…
  • How the War on Cash will lead to a Rebirth of Hard Money

    6 Jun 2015 | 7:53 am
    You may have heard about the world's central banks' War on Cash. The War on Cash is the promotion of a system of exclusively electronic transfers where paper money or coins not even exist. The central bank could increase or reduce people's bank balances as they see fit, central governments could tax transactions as they occur, and illegal activities (that aren't state approved) could be prevented. Furthermore, in an all-electronic system, enemies of the state could theoretically be frozen out of the entire world economy. Fortunately for humankind, the War on Cash is a pipe dream, like the War…
  • 7 Stock Photos with Totally Made-Up Back Stories that Will Change Everything

    2 Dec 2014 | 4:33 pm
    This single cherry. That's what it would have cost Tanzanian refugee Ahmadou Elsassian to purchase his crippled sister's freedom from Berber slave-traders. Ahmadou walked for seventeen days to Addis-Ababa through scorching desert to purchase his sister's ransom. His body was found by the side of the road, only 400 yards from the Berber camp, starved to death, clutching the above-pictured cherry in his emaciated palm. Tu'u Uma was separated from her pod in 2002, and has returned to this spot in the Bering Sea every year to search for her family. Researchers say the 17 year-old orca will refuse…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Macro Brief

  • US Auto Sales Should Decline In June

    admin
    27 Jun 2015 | 1:15 pm
    Automakers will release June vehicle sales next Wednesday (July 1st) and currently, analysts expect sales (Seasonally Adjusted at Annualized Rate) to decline from May (17.71M).   Here are some forecasts from several specialists:   1/ Edmunds: Auto Industry Poised for Best June Sales in a Decade, Forecasts Edmunds.com   Edmunds.com, the premier destination for car shopping, forecasts that 1,484,487 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in June for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 17.3 million. The projected sales will be a 9.0 percent decrease from…
  • In Greece, it’s not a “bank walk” but really a “bank run”

    admin
    27 Jun 2015 | 3:46 am
    After midnight in Athens, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called a referendum on July 5 on whether he should accept the latest demands of its creditors. In the meantime, Greek officials announced that banks will remain open on Monday and they don’t plan Capital Controls.   The only problem is that people know the referendum increases the probability of a Grexit in coming weeks as suggested by the latest quotes on Betfair (see below).   #Betfair #Greece #GreeceCrisis #Greek @SpiegelPeter | More than 30% chance of #GREXIT in 2015 ahead of #Greferendum…
  • Investors Should Revise their Liftoff Expectations as FOMC Remains on Track to Raise Rates this Year

    admin
    21 Jun 2015 | 1:41 pm
    On Friday, San Francisco Fed President Williams (dove, FOMC voter) and Cleveland Fed President Mester (moderate, FOMC non-voter) both said they expect the FOMC to begin liftoff at some point later this year.   According to CNBC, San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams believes the U.S. central bank should raise rates twice this year if economic data meet expectations. In the meantime, according to WSJ, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said raising rates right now wouldn’t be a problem for the economy as a whole.   These two statements…
  • FOMC Preview – A Summary from Bloomberg

    admin
    17 Jun 2015 | 3:02 am
    Aberdeen (Luke Bartholomew) - Fed will likely use June FOMC mtg to prep for Sept. rate hike and if 2015 and 2016 dots remain unchanged, “then we are full steam ahead for September”   AllianceBernstein (Joseph Carson) - Fed officials would be “well advised to follow their script from the April FOMC statement and begin to lift official rates off the zero bound” - “A policy that waits for economic data to supply the ‘truth’ will always be looking backward — and will always be systemically late”   Barclays (Michael Gapen) - Improving economic data might allow Fed…
  • Popular Party regained the lead in June Poll

    admin
    7 Jun 2015 | 11:59 am
    June’s Metroscopia poll for El País (the first poll following the local and regional elections), published on Sunday, shows that Popular Party (PP) regained the lead for the first time in 10 months and got 24.5% of support, up from 20.8% in April. However, it remains below the result recorded the in local elections (27.1%).   In the meantime, the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE)’s estimated support reached 23.0% up from 21.9% in April following a real result of 25.0% on May 24.   Separately, the two loosers were Podemos and especially Ciudadanos. The support for the latter fell…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    FT Alphaville

  • Financial technology, sustainability & Trichet on our sci-fi future

    Izabella Kaminska
    3 Jul 2015 | 3:00 pm
    We’ve rushed straight from Camp Alphaville’s big data, AI and debt sustainability conversations to Paris to take part in a United Nations Environment Program-hosted symposium entitled New Rules for New Horizons: Reshaping Finance Sustainability. [As an aside - we were delivered to the venue by a particularly overjoyed Parisien taxi driver celebrating news that local protests against Uber's UberPop service, which allows non-professionals to offer rides, had successfully persuaded the Silicon Valley Taxi-Unicorn-App-Monopoly-Disruptor to suspend the service as of this weekend.] This…
  • Camp Alphaville bonus impromptu iPhone video: Lorcan v Lars on Greece and the euro

    Cardiff Garcia
    3 Jul 2015 | 8:01 am
    Should Greece want to leave the euro? Lorcan Roche Kelly and Lars Christensen debate a recent post over at Lars’s blog. A fun and vigorous debate but some possibly NSFW language:Continue reading: Camp Alphaville bonus impromptu iPhone video: Lorcan v Lars on Greece and the euro
  • This is nuts: China blames the shorts

    James Mackintosh
    3 Jul 2015 | 6:09 am
    Chinese regulators have markets exactly backwards. Late on Thursday they announced an investigation into manipulation by short sellers, while the futures exchange seems to be discouraging people shorting, or betting on price falls. In practical terms, the action failed: stocks fell again, leaving them down 12 per cent on the week and down more than a quarter from their peak three weeks ago, with extraordinary intra-day swings. In principle, though, the action is just wrong. The reason the stock market is falling isn’t short sellers, it’s long sellers. More precisely, the hordes…
  • Camp Alphaville videos: Zoltan Pozsar on the shadow banking system

    Cardiff Garcia
    3 Jul 2015 | 5:07 am
    Last one — a chat with Zoltan Pozsar (in front of the Faces of Alphaville shooting gallery) on the safety of the US financial system, global regulatory architecture, and the Fed’s reverse repo facility:Continue reading: Camp Alphaville videos: Zoltan Pozsar on the shadow banking system
  • Markets Live: Friday, 3rd July, 2015

    Bryce Elder
    3 Jul 2015 | 3:03 am
    Live markets commentary from FT.com Continue reading: Markets Live: Friday, 3rd July, 2015
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Marginal REVOLUTION

  • Might Greece see some version of hyperinflation?

    Tyler Cowen
    4 Jul 2015 | 9:30 pm
    Keep in mind that things can go badly under either a yes or no vote today.  (I am not even sure the referendum result will make such a difference, since it is all in the subsequent deal, or lack thereof, and the terms would be different anyway.)  Yet I do not think a hyperinflation is the likely result. As things stand, Greece could run out of euros in well under a week.  That is a deflationary pressure.  To be sure, Greek companies are already starting to print up various kinds of scrip.  But those will be media of exchange priced in terms of euros, not new media of account.  The…
  • Greece and Syriza lost the public relations battle

    Tyler Cowen
    4 Jul 2015 | 5:21 pm
    One of the most striking aspects of the Greek situation is just how much the Greek government has lost the public relations battle.  They have lost it among the social democracies, and they have lost it most of all with the other small countries in Europe.  They retain some sympathy in the American government, but we are not willing to put any money on the table and basically we want the European Union to clean up the problems for us. If you look at the progressive economists, Stiglitz, Krugman, Piketty and Sachs all recommend a “no” vote on the referendum.  Though they would…
  • Saturday assorted links

    Tyler Cowen
    4 Jul 2015 | 9:29 am
    1. “Kids are too rebellious, he says. “A disciple is what you want.””  Is La Monte Young the greatest living composer? 2. Pete Sampras writes a letter to his 15-year-old self. 2. How companies really get valued. 4. Does Germany care about Greece more than America cares about Puerto Rico? 5. What would it cost to produce and order all of Wikipedia? 6. How do outsiders evaluate getting an economics PhD?
  • An Abandoned Space Ship

    Alex Tabarrok
    4 Jul 2015 | 4:32 am
    Russian urban explorer and photographer Ralph Mirebs discovered an enormous, abandoned hangar in Kazakhstan. Inside were the remains of the Soviet space shuttle program. More amazing photos from the source here or from a secondary news piece here.
  • China facts of the day

    Tyler Cowen
    4 Jul 2015 | 1:58 am
    Greece is small, China is large: The Shanghai Composite has now fallen 12.1 per cent since Monday, its third consecutive week of double-digit losses since hitting a seven-year high on June 12. The Shanghai index is firmly in bear market territory, down 28.6 per cent since the June peak, while the tech-heavy Shenzhen Composite has fallen 33.2 per cent. There were also signs on Friday that the stock market turmoil is beginning to reverberate beyond China. The Australian dollar, often traded as a proxy for China growth, is down 1.2 per cent to a six-year low of US$0.7539. The 21st Century…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Zero Hedge

  • MaRaTHoN MeNSCH-auBLe

    williambanzai7
    4 Jul 2015 | 7:24 pm
  • They Want To Use "Hate Speech Laws" To Destroy Freedom Of Speech In America

    Tyler Durden
    4 Jul 2015 | 6:55 pm
    Submitted by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog, Hate speech laws are going in all around the world, and progressive activists in the United States want to use these kinds of laws to destroy free speech in America.  You see, the truth is that these hate speech laws that are being implemented all over the planet are not just about preventing speech that promotes violence or genocide against a particular group of people.  Instead, these laws are written in such a way that anyone that says something that “offends” or “insults” someone else is…
  • This Is Why The Euro Is Finished

    Tyler Durden
    4 Jul 2015 | 6:34 pm
    Submitted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer of The Automatic Earth This Is Why The Euro Is Finished The IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis report on Greece that came out this week has caused a big stir. We now know that the Fund’s analysts confirm what Syriza has been saying ever since they came to power 5 months ago: Greece needs debt relief, lots of it, and fast. We also know that Europe tried to silence the report. But what’s most interesting is that this has been going on for months, as per Reuters. Ergo, the IMF has known about the -preliminary- analysis for months, and kept silent, while at the…
  • "The US Needs War Every 4 Years To Maintain Economic Growth"

    Tyler Durden
    4 Jul 2015 | 6:20 pm
    "This is not a secret," explains Kris Roman, director of geopolitical research center Euro-Rus, "The whole [US] economy is built on the military theme: to maintain its economic growth, the United States needs a war every 4 years, otherwise the economic growth slows down." The Belgian expert believes that with the collapse of the USSR, NATO should have stopped existing, but somehow the alliance "has grown to the size of the Universe because the motto 'The Russians are coming!' is relevant again." In the 25 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO has not forgotten even for a moment…
  • Greece, China, & Russia – A Plan B For Tsipras

    Tyler Durden
    4 Jul 2015 | 5:45 pm
    Via Golem XIV, If the Greeks were to vote ‘No’ what would happen next?  Well no one can say. But here is a quick thought on what I hope the Greek government might have been exploring if they are excluded from the euro. It’s just food for thought nothing more. They have to be prepared to have a currency that does not depend on Europe supplying Euros. So they will need another currency – hopefully their own.  I think we can be sure no western company has been printing them. There are few such companies and there is, I think, no possibility that they would be…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    nextnewdeal.net

  • Once Again, the ACA Survived SCOTUS -- But the Fight Isn't Over Yet

    tprice
    25 Jun 2015 | 1:16 pm
    Today the Supreme Court decided in favor of the government and the more than 6 million individuals who now have health coverage thanks to the Affordable Care Act’s subsidies. The 6–3 King v. Burwell decision—which determined that individuals in all states, not just those that established their own health exchanges, could be eligible for federal subsidies—is a win for President Obama, for the law more broadly, and for the health and economic security of millions of women and their families. As I described in my recent policy note, the ACA has expanded women’s access to care, improved…
  • NYC Taxi Owners Are Denying Benefits to Drivers. The City Council Can Stop Them.

    tprice
    25 Jun 2015 | 10:54 am
    Earlier this month, the New York City Council enacted basic protections for workers at car washes, one group of exploited, largely immigrant workers. Next up on the City Council’s to-do list should be reversing a court decision that robbed taxi drivers, another group of mostly immigrant workers, of health and disability benefits. New York City’s taxi drivers are one more group of workers who decades ago were legally considered employees but now are classified as independent contractors, with low and unpredictable wages, long work hours, and no benefits. Over the last two decades, taxi…
  • Millennials Are Not Post-Racial: An Ivy League Education

    tprice
    24 Jun 2015 | 11:02 am
    “I don’t see race” is the oft-heard refrain of many Millennial men and women. Surveys have shown that people of this generation believe themselves to be more tolerant of racial differences than older Americans. These are young people who see the progress America has made in addressing racial disparities as irreversible. This sense of finality stems from a belief—proliferated in the 1980s and 1990s—that federal, state, and local governments have made a concerted effort , through measures including the Civil Rights Act, the Voting Rights Act, and affirmative action, to eliminate…
  • King v. Burwell Could Turn Back the Clock for Women's Health

    tprice
    23 Jun 2015 | 7:47 am
    In the coming days the Supreme Court will decide King v. Burwell, a case on which the health coverage of more than 6 million individuals—and in some ways the future of the Affordable Care Act (ACA)—hinges. As we anticipate that ruling, and as conservative lawmakers propose potential solutions to the crisis that will ensue should they “win,” we should pause and remember that the ACA has profoundly improved the quality of women’s health coverage, expanded women’s access to care, and increased women’s economic security. As I describe in a policy note released today by the Roosevelt…
  • Texas's New Gun Law Won't Make Campuses Safer for Women

    tprice
    23 Jun 2015 | 7:43 am
    Texas recently passed some of the most conservative, pro-gun legislation in the country, which drastically liberalizes open carry laws on college campuses. With the aid of lobbyists and lawmakers backed by the National Rifle Association (NRA), the legislation is now moving forward in more than fourteen other states as well. Student policymakers are a vital intellectual constituency, and it is imperative to include them in discussions and decisions regarding student life. The Texas open carry law virtually eliminates any semblance of student control over this issue and their campus…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Jared Bernstein | On the Economy

  • People on third base claiming they hit a triple, or marginal product theory at work…not!

    Jared Bernstein
    3 Jul 2015 | 9:01 am
    One of the less defensible assumptions of microeconomics is that people get paid their “marginal product,” i.e., their wage equals the value of the output they produce. Thus, according to the theory, if the last worker hired is being paid an hourly wage less than the value of the firm’s output per hour, if would make sense to hire additional workers and vice versa, to the point where the value of the last unit of output equals the wage. Now, it would be unduly persnickety to insist that this formulation holds exactly, and there’s certainly solid evidence that wages…
  • June jobs: continued, solid gains, but that 5.3% unemployment rate makes the job market look tighter than it is

    Jared Bernstein
    2 Jul 2015 | 6:26 am
    Today’s jobs report was a bit weaker than expected, and a bit weaker than it looked at first blush. While payrolls were up 223,000 in June, in line with expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to a record low in this recovery of 5.3%, mitigating factors include: –downward revisions in payrolls for April and May of 60,000 combined; –the fall in unemployment was exclusively due to people leaving the labor force, not jobseekers finding work; –thus, the labor force participation rate ticked down a significant 0.3 percentage points to 62.6%, its lowest level since the late…
  • Jobs day…on Thursday?? Really???

    Jared Bernstein
    1 Jul 2015 | 3:31 pm
    Really. When our revolutionary founders defeated the British, they declared that when people work a short week due to our nation’s birthday, the BLS should release the jobs report a day early. So we’ll get June’s jobs numbers tomorrow instead of Friday. Here’s the Bloomberg consensus. Source: Bloomberg Barring a surprise, I expect a payroll number between 200 and 250K, though I might shave expectations to the downside a bit, based on the type of headwind factors I note here. I’ll be watching for: –is the strong dollar still holding back factory jobs, or has…
  • My take on the (d)evolving situation in Greece

    Jared Bernstein
    1 Jul 2015 | 10:42 am
    Over at MSNBC.com, or you could just go with the summary by renowned international economist Dr. John: “refried confusion is makin’ itself clear…wonder which way do I go to get on out of here!” Or, to add a level of complexity, to conflate insolvency with illiquidity is to ask for a protracted mess that delivers more pain than relief.
  • Yeah, baby–new OT rule is out and it’s strong!

    Jared Bernstein
    29 Jun 2015 | 8:38 pm
    I’ve got a longer piece up on PostEverything, but here are the key ‘grafs from the POTUS’s announcement on this tonight (my bold): We’ve got to keep making sure hard work is rewarded. Right now, too many Americans are working long days for less pay than they deserve. That’s partly because we’ve failed to update overtime regulations for years — and an exemption meant for highly paid, white collar employees now leaves out workers making as little as $23,660 a year — no matter how many hours they work. This week, I’ll head to Wisconsin to…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Freakonomics

  • A Better Way to Eat REBRAODCAST Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    2 Jul 2015 | 7:35 am
    [MUSIC: Tony Flynn, “Star Spangled Banner Stephen J. DUBNERHey podcast listeners … hope you’re having, or have already had, a great Fourth of July. When you think of Independence Day, what comes to mind? The Declaration of Independence, perhaps, and all those tetchy colonists. Fireworks maybe. But if you’re like me, the first thing that comes to mind — hot dogs. Lots and lots and lots of hot dogs, eaten in a very short time. In the following episode, which originally aired around Independence Day of 2014, you’ll learn more than you ever wanted to know about the art and science…
  • A Better Way to Eat: A Freakonomics Radio Rebroadcast

    Freakonomics
    1 Jul 2015 | 8:00 pm
    Stephen Dubner and Takeru Kobayashi. This week’s Freakonomics Radio episode is a rebroadcast of the episode “A Better Way to Eat” (You can subscribe to the podcast at iTunes or elsewhere, get the RSS feed, or listen via the media player above. You can also read the transcript, which includes credits for the music you’ll hear in the episode.) It features an interview with Takeru Kobayashi, who revolutionized the sport of competitive eating. So you’ll learn plenty about the tactics — physical, mental, and strategic — that Kobi employed while earning…
  • Is It Okay for Restaurants to Racially Profile Their Employees? A New Freakonomics Radio Episode

    Stephen J. Dubner
    24 Jun 2015 | 8:00 pm
    (Photo: Cory Doctorow) Our latest Freakonomics Radio episode is called “Is It Okay for Restaurants to Racially Profile Their Employees?” (You can subscribe to the podcast at iTunes or elsewhere, get the RSS feed, or listen via the media player above. You can also read the transcript, which includes credits for the music you’ll hear in the episode.) The gist of the episode: We seem to have decided that ethnic food tastes better when it’s served by people of that ethnicity (or at least something close). Does this make sense — and is it legal? A listener from Salt…
  • Is It Okay for Restaurants to Racially Profile Their Employees? Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    24 Jun 2015 | 8:00 pm
    DUBNER: Hey Levitt, pretend for a minute you’ve decided to open up a restaurant. Can you imagine that? LEVITT: Sure, easy, easy to imagine something like that. DUBNER: Would you enjoy it? LEVITT: No, I would hate it more than anything. DUBNER: Oh, but you can imagine it? LEVITT: I can imagine it, yeah. DUBNER: What kind of food would you serve? LEVITT: Probably fast food because it’s my favorite kind of food. [EDIT] I think that’s what I would probably open. DUBNER: Could you imagine opening something, like, with an Asian cuisine? LEVITT: There’s a really great Asian…
  • Make Me a Match: A New Freakonomics Radio Episode

    Stephen J. Dubner
    17 Jun 2015 | 8:00 pm
    Market-design wizard Al Roth finds solutions for the problems money alone can’t solve. (Photo, cropped: Newtown Grafitti) Our latest Freakonomics Radio episode is called “Make Me a Match.” (You can subscribe to the podcast at iTunes or elsewhere, get the RSS feed, or listen via the media player above. You can also read the transcript, which includes credits for the music you’ll hear in the episode.) The gist of the episode: Sure, markets generally work well. But for some transactions — like school admissions and organ transplants — money alone can’t…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    interfluidity

  • Greece

    Steve Randy Waldman
    3 Jul 2015 | 6:25 pm
    Greece is a remarkable country full of wonderful people, but along dimensions of development and governance, the place is plainly pretty fucked up. It has been fucked up that way for a long time, for decades at least. This has never been secret. Anyone who has visited Athens knows it has far more in common with Bucharest or Istanbul than with orderly Western European capitals. In the run up to Greece’s joining the Euro, everyone who wanted to know knew that Greece’s qualifications to join the Eurozone were, shall we say, ambitious. Mainstream establishment banks…
  • Dear Senator Feinstein (re “Fast Track”, TPP, etc.)

    Steve Randy Waldman
    23 Jun 2015 | 5:10 am
    The following is the text of a note I just sent to Dianne Feinstein, my US Senator, via the Senator’s “e-mail” comment form. For what it’s worth, you can read it too. I’ve edited out some embarrassing typos. Dear Senator Feinstein, As a constituent, I felt betrayed by your vote in favor of 3-6 year, no-supermajority “fast track” for TPP and other trade-related deals negotiated by the executive branch. On procedural grounds, “fast-tracks” should always be supermajoritarian. The usual checks and balances that block or at least shave the…
  • Bernanke on monetary policy and inequality

    Steve Randy Waldman
    2 Jun 2015 | 12:46 am
    Ben Bernanke has a new post discussing the relationship between monetary policy and inequality. It is characteristically thoughtful and there is much to recommend it. Unlike some monetary policy cheerleaders, Bernanke is candid that “[m]onetary policy is a blunt tool which certainly affects the distribution of income and wealth”. And he correctly points out that monetary policy operations provoke complex and countervailing distributional effects, rendering simplistic stories hard to judge. Yes, Bernanke acknowledges, monetary easing raises the value of financial assets held almost…
  • There is a name for this

    Steve Randy Waldman
    30 Apr 2015 | 9:17 am
    I’m reading a lot of crap about riots in my hometown. Fuck you all and your firehose of useless, self-serving, careerist punditry, your giant spotlight that cares not a whit about all the things it pretends to illuminate but will blather with equal earnestness and concern about the next thing tomorrow just like it did about the last thing yesterday and hope to get paid or praised for it all. Fuck me for adding to the noise, I barely have the stomach for it anymore. I don’t live in Baltimore now. I’m writing this from Silicon Valley. Does that even count as being alive? I…
  • Tangles of pathology

    Steve Randy Waldman
    8 Apr 2015 | 12:09 am
    Trilemmas are always fun. Let’s do one. You may pick two, but no more than two, of the following: Liberalism Inequality Nonpathology By “liberalism”, I mean a social order in which people are free to do as they please and live as they wish, in which everyone is formally enfranchised by a political process justified in terms of consent of the governed and equality of opportunity. By “inequality”, I mean high dispersion of economic outcomes between individuals over full lifetimes. [1] By “nonpathology”, I mean the absence of a sizable underclass within…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Credit Writedowns

  • A Return to Fundamentals?

    Niels Jensen
    2 Jul 2015 | 5:33 am
    Overall, I don’t see any clear signs that the risk on, risk off mentality, which has ruled since 2008, is finally coming to an end. Yes, correlations have begun to recede a little bit here and there; however, if it is indeed a sign of bigger things to come, it is still very early days. The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. A Return to Fundamentals? originally appeared on Credit Writedowns Links: RSS - Daily - Weekly - Twitter - Facebook - Contact Related posts: Review: How My Ten Surprises for 2012 Fared Some thoughts on Europe, most of them positive European…
  • Greek default

    Edward Harrison
    1 Jul 2015 | 5:44 am
    Now that Greece has defaulted on its payments to the IMF, I am going to take this article from behind the paywall. The views in it regarding the impact of default and Grexit are still very much operative four months later. I believe that, short of Grexit, Greece’s impact on the rest of Europe and European asset markets is now limited and that contagion risk is really redenomination risk and only materializes in great measure if Greece leaves the eurozone. The original post from 10 Mar 2015 is below. The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. Greek default…
  • The Euro is a failure

    Edward Harrison
    30 Jun 2015 | 6:19 am
    When I was discussing the Greek economic crisis last night with my colleague Ameera David, she asked me who I blame for the mess we are in. I told her I blame the euro because the euro is a monetary union created for political reasons without political union. It is a failure and the Greek crisis shows us one reason why. But I have a catalogue of other reasons. So I have decided to write them down and explain my thinking to you in greater detail. The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. The Euro is a failure originally appeared on Credit Writedowns Links: RSS -…
  • Some thoughts on the coming defaults of Greece

    Edward Harrison
    29 Jun 2015 | 9:52 am
    This post, originally written at Credit Writedown Pro on 27 Apr 2015, is now available here as well. After the meeting in Riga, it is more clear than ever that the gap between Greece and the Eurogroup finance ministers is wide. Default looks likely and so we have to start thinking about what this means for Greece and for Europe. […] The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. Some thoughts on the coming defaults of Greece originally appeared on Credit Writedowns Links: RSS - Daily - Weekly - Twitter - Facebook - Contact Related posts: The coming defaults of…
  • Greek default and Grexit now increasing in probability

    Edward Harrison
    29 Jun 2015 | 5:08 am
    At this point, default within the eurozone is the best case scenario for Greece. Grexit is still a distinct possibility. All potential best case scenarios are out the window. Below is my assessment on how we got here. The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. Greek default and Grexit now increasing in probability originally appeared on Credit Writedowns Links: RSS - Daily - Weekly - Twitter - Facebook - Contact Related posts: The end of European bailouts and the beginning of monetisation My thoughts on the Cyprus bailout Negotiating strategies and political…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Liberty Street Economics

  • Did the West Coast Port Dispute Contribute to the First-Quarter GDP Slowdown?

    Blog Author
    2 Jul 2015 | 4:00 am
    Mary Amiti, Tyler Bodine-Smith, Michele Cavallo, and Logan Lewis The decline in U.S. GDP of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2015 was much larger than market analysts expected, with net exports subtracting a staggering 1.9 percentage points (seasonally adjusted annualized rate). A range of factors is being discussed in policy circles to try to understand what contributed to this decline. Factors such as the strong U.S. dollar and weak foreign demand are usually incorporated in forecasters’ models. However, the effects of unusual events such as extremely cold weather and labor disputes…
  • What Do Bond Markets Think about “Too-Big-to-Fail” Since Dodd-Frank?

    Blog Author
    1 Jul 2015 | 4:00 am
    Gara Afonso and João Santos Second in a two-part series In our previous post, we concluded that, in rating agencies’ views, there is no clear consensus on whether the Dodd-Frank Act has eliminated “too-big-to-fail” in the United States. Today, we discuss whether bond market participants share these views. As we discussed in our post on Monday, the Dodd-Frank Act includes provisions to address whether banks remain “too big to fail.” Title II of the Act creates an orderly liquidation mechanism for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to resolve failed systemically…
  • What Do Rating Agencies Think about “Too-Big-to-Fail” Since Dodd-Frank?

    Blog Author
    29 Jun 2015 | 4:00 am
    Gara Afonso and João Santos First in a two-part series Did the Dodd-Frank Act end ‘‘too-big-to-fail’’ (TBTF)? In this series of two posts, we look at this question through the lens of rating agencies and financial markets. Today we begin by discussing rating agencies’ views on this topic. The belief that very large banks may be too big to let fail appears to date back to the demise of Continental Illinois Bank in 1984. Continental, then the seventh largest bank in the United States by deposits, experienced deposit runs following news of significant loan losses. Concerns that…
  • From the Vault: Gauging Treasury Market Liquidity

    Blog Author
    26 Jun 2015 | 4:00 am
    Anna Snider Recent news and market analysis has featured a spate of warnings about diminished liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market and reminders of how quickly markets can seize. It’s a topic we’ve addressed on our blog with an investigation of the bond market sell-off of 2013. As the Liberty Street Economics post notes, in markets such as the one for U.S. Treasuries, liquidity hinges in part on whether dealers respond to temporary imbalances in supply and demand by stepping in as buyers or sellers against trades sought by other market participants. The authors ask whether something has…
  • Falling Oil Prices and Global Saving

    Blog Author
    24 Jun 2015 | 4:00 am
    Thomas Klitgaard and Patrick Russo The rise in oil prices from near $30 per barrel in 2000 to around $110 per barrel in mid-2014 was a dramatic reallocation of global income to oil producers. So what did oil producers do with this bounty? Trade data show that they spent about half of the increase in total export revenues on imports and the other half to buy foreign assets. The drop in oil prices will unwind this process. Oil-importing countries will gain from lower oil bills, but they will also see a decline in their exports to oil-producing countries and in purchases of their assets by…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The Incidental Economist

  • Confirmation bias

    Austin Frakt
    4 Jul 2015 | 7:00 am
    Via Justin Dimick and Mamta Swa: @afrakt
  • Our safer, yet imperfect, automated systems

    Austin Frakt
    2 Jul 2015 | 9:33 am
    An apt analog to William Langewiesche’s story of the 2009 crash of Air France Flight 447 is Bob Wachter’s account of the non-fatal overdosing of a pediatric patient at the UCSF Medical Center. Neither story is new, and I make no claims that my feeble insights below are novel.* In fact, Wachter mentions Flight 447’s fatal crash as he explains how automation can create new vectors for disaster, even as it closes off old ones. Both he and Langewiesche provide evidence that automation—auto-pilots in aviation and clinical decision support and order fulfillment features in…
  • Lifting the ban on total dietary fat?

    Aaron Carroll
    2 Jul 2015 | 6:51 am
    I write about nutrition far more now than I used to. Part of that is because – as with health policy – as I’ve learned how little of what we say is based on data and evidence, the more irritated I become (see my Twitter avatar). I recently came across a Viewpoint in JAMA that is illustrative of how things are changing in nutrition. It’s by Dariush Mozaffarian and David Ludwig, and it talks about the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee report. Here’s something I already wrote about at The Upshot: In the new DGAC report, one widely noticed revision was the…
  • Increasing scientific credibility

    Austin Frakt
    2 Jul 2015 | 3:00 am
    Some ideas for reducing publication bias and increasing the credibility of published scientific findings, from Brendan Nyhan: Pre-accepted articles, based on pre-registered protocol and before findings are known. Brendan reports that this is already happening at AIMS Neuroscience, Cortex, Perspectives on Psychological Science, Social Psychology, and for a planned special issue of Comparative Political Studies. Results-blind peer review. A similar idea to pre-accepted articles, this would evaluate submissions on all aspects of a paper (data, methods, import) apart from the actual findings.
  • On automation: More from the aviation industry

    Austin Frakt
    1 Jul 2015 | 9:39 am
    Here’s more from the October 2014 article by William Langewiesche that was a source for the 99 Percent Invisible episode I quoted on Sunday: First, you put the Clipper Skipper out to pasture, because he has the unilateral power to screw things up. You replace him with a teamwork concept—call it Crew Resource Management—that encourages checks and balances and requires pilots to take turns at flying. Now it takes two to screw things up. Next you automate the component systems so they require minimal human intervention, and you integrate them into a self-monitoring robotic whole. You…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    LewRockwell

  • The Disastrous Secession From Great Britain

    Gary North
    3 Jul 2015 | 10:01 pm
    Remnant Review Lots of people celebrate July 4. I do not. The Declaration of Independence justified armed secession. It was signed by a handful of lawyers on July 4, 1776. Secession was a way of transferring a great deal of power to colonial legislatures, where most of these lawyers were members. It was a way of replacing governors appointed by the King with governors elected by men of the colonies. Then the law of unintended consequences once again made itself felt: higher taxes, hyperinflation, price controls, default on state debts, and (in 1788) a new centralized government that dwarfed…
  • Important Self-Defense Lesson

    No Author
    3 Jul 2015 | 10:01 pm
    Covington VA –-(Ammoland.com)- A former Cable News Network (CNN) reporter, Chuck de Caro, and his wife, Lynne Russell, who is a former CNN anchor, were involved in an attempted holdup in New Mexico. The result, as documented in the coverage below, was a violent shootout.  Lynne was not hurt, Chuck was shot, but is expected to survive, and the bad guy is deceased. Lynne opened their hotel room door to get something from the car, when a man pushed his way through the door, armed with a handgun.  After taking Chuck’s briefcase, the bad guy turned and started shooting.  Chuck returned fire…
  • What If Gold Is Declared Illegal?

    Bill Bonner
    3 Jul 2015 | 10:01 pm
    Over the weekend, the lines in Greece stretched along the street. Around the corner. Down the block. Lines to get cash. Lines to buy gas. Lines of people eager to get their hands on something of value. Food. Fuel. Cash. Pity the poor guy who was last in line… …the poor taxi driver, for example, standing behind 300 other people, trying to get 200 lousy euros out of an ATM. Like a tragic nightclub customer… among the last to smell the smoke. By the time he headed for the exit, it was clogged with desperate people, all struggling to get through the same narrow door at the same time.
  • My ‘Soldier of Fortune’ Days

    Fred Reed
    3 Jul 2015 | 10:01 pm
    Shot in Lebanon just before the 241 Marines were killed by the suicide truck, utterly preventable except for the stupidity of the State Department and the lack of balls of the Marine command. Don’t get me started. All photos mine.   Those were wilder times, hardier times, memorable and loose. The veterans of Vietnam were not yet aged and, as happens after wars, did not settle easily into selling air filters at the NAPA outlet. They had lain atop Amtracs in the tropical night, with star shells blazing white in the sky and the smoke trailing almost solid and the distant roar and thump of…
  • Acid Reflux, Gas, Bloating?

    Margaret Durst
    3 Jul 2015 | 10:01 pm
    INDIGESTION – From gas and bloating to acid reflux – if you have it, you want to get rid of it. But don’t fall for something that just gets rid of the symptoms, look to address the underlying cause. Most indigestion is the result of INSUFFICIENT ENZYMES and/or INSUFFICIENT STOMACH ACID. The most common remedy is some sort of acid blocker that makes proper digestion impossible. Antacids and acid blockers perpetuate the problems of indigestion. They neutralize or block stomach acid, preventing the stomach from digesting food. A vicious cycle is then set up since more acid is needed to…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Angry Bear

  • Mellon-ization, Austerianism, and Grexit

    Bruce Webb
    4 Jul 2015 | 8:34 am
    “Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate… It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people.” -Andrew W. Mellon […]
  • Open thread July 3, 2015

    Dan Crawford
    3 Jul 2015 | 7:51 am
  • Obama Overtime Rule = Truth In Advertising

    Bruce Webb
    2 Jul 2015 | 5:09 pm
    The Obama Administration is proposing to raise the income threshold under which employers are required to pay overtime from $23600 to $50400 and predictably the economic right has started to squeal. And in so doing have tried to advance two cases: one this change will cost jobs, and two nobody will actually get a raise. […]
  • April Fools! Belated Social Security Joke.

    Bruce Webb
    1 Jul 2015 | 3:05 pm
    Compilation of the Social Security Laws: Title 2 FEDERAL OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE TRUST FUND AND FEDERAL DISABILITY INSURANCE TRUST FUND[3] Sec. 201. [42 U.S.C. 401] (c) With respect to the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund and the Federal Disability Insurance Trust Fund (hereinafter in this title called the “Trust Funds”) there is […]
  • News just came out that Greece Defaulted on its Loan with the IMF

    Edward Lambert
    30 Jun 2015 | 4:46 pm
    The Wall Street Journal just published news that Greece defaulted on its IMF loan. Link I have connections to some people in the banking industry who have said for years that Greece’s default was inevitable. Now the default looks like it is here.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Macro and Other Market Musings

  • Was Grexit Invevitable?

    28 Jun 2015 | 9:24 am
    So it appears the Eurozone crisis has finally crossed the rubicon. Greece is going to default on Monday and this likely will put in motion its departure from the currency union. The Eurozone as we know it may soon cease to exist.Was this breakup inevitable? Many observers would say yes. The Eurozone, after all, is not an optimal currency area and therefore likely to create problems. Martin Feldstein, for example, in 1997 wrote this in Foreign Affairs:Monnet was mistaken... If EMU does come into existence, as now seems increasingly likely, it will change the political character of Europe in…
  • The Long Unwind of Excess Money Demand

    25 Jun 2015 | 10:22 am
    Two years ago I was part of a panel discussion on Fed policy at the American Enterprise Institute. I talked about why money still matters as way to make the case that the economy was still being plagued by excess money demand. This problem occurs when desired money holdings exceed actual money holdings. This imbalance causes a rebalancing of portfolios toward safe assets away from riskier ones and in the process causes a decline in aggregate demand. This is one way to view the long slump.My argument back then was that even though the excess money demand problem peaked in 2009 it still was…
  • The Penske View of Macroeconomic Policy

    23 Jun 2015 | 10:19 am
    You can learn a lot about macroeconomic policy by driving a Penske truck. I did three years ago when I moved from Texas to Tennessee. The trip began with me driving a 26-foot Penske truck and my wife following in our car. I quickly discovered that Penske had placed a governor on the engine that limited the truck's speed to around 65 miles per hour. This was well below its true potential and made for an incredibly frustrating trip. Hills proved to be especially challenging since I could never generate enough momentum to avoid slowing down as I began ascending them. After the hills it was…
  • Why the Fed Will Raise Interest Rates This Year

    30 Apr 2015 | 4:45 pm
    Despite the apparent slow down of economic activity during the first quarter of this year, it is likely the Fed will still have to raise interest rates in the near future. This reason why is that households are increasingly expecting their nominal incomes to rise and this typically leads actual wage and salary growth. This can be seen in the figures below.The first figure shows households' expected nominal income growth over the next year. It comes from the University of Michigan/Thompson Reuters Survey of Consumers where households are asked each month how much their dollar (i.e.
  • About that Dual Mandate...

    28 Apr 2015 | 8:59 pm
    George Selgin says we should do away with it:The Federal Open Market Committee is in a pickle. After its last meeting, it suggested that it would soon start raising interest rates as a way to head off inflation. Recent inflation numbers, showing an uptick in the core inflation rate, make that step seem as necessary as ever.But disappointing growth projections, along with the dollar's international appreciation, are giving committee members cold feet.The FOMC's dilemma is rooted in the Fed's so-called "dual mandate," calling for it to achieve both "maximum employment" and "stable prices."…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    niesr.ac.uk

  • Why Greece Matters for the UK Referendum

    AngusArmstrong
    3 Jul 2015 | 7:54 am
    Events unfolding in the eurozone matter for the UK's referendum. The euro is the main currency of the EU: only two of the twenty eight member nations have official opt-out clauses from joining the single currency. What happens to the euro cannot be separated from the EU, and therefore the choice facing the UK electorate.
  • Low aspirations don't explain why white working class children fall behind

    HeatherRolfe
    30 Jun 2015 | 1:16 am
    The lower educational achievement of white working-class pupils has long been recognised as a key challenge for schools. But in recent years, the yardstick against which their under-performance has been measured has changed – from middle-class pupils to children from ethnic minorities. This is due to evidence that pupils from ethnic minorities, including recent migrants and those with English as a second language, have been increasingly outperforming white working-class pupils.
  • Scotland’s Fiscal Framework

    AngusArmstrong
    23 Jun 2015 | 12:59 am
    Scotland’s future borrowing power is the most important issue in the devolution debate. While on the surface a dry subject, consider that differences in US state finances were central in the escalation to civil war and Europe’s current tragedy arises from sub-central borrowing powers within a monetary union.[1] The IMF recently published this paper summarising recent evidence of moral hazard which generally accompanies sub-central borrowing powers.  
  • Labour mobility in the European Union: a brief history

    JonathanPortes
    15 Jun 2015 | 6:02 am
    [This blog summarises my review article, “Labour Mobility in the European Union”, published June 15, 2015 in the Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. The full article, which includes detailed references for all the research summarised here, is available free to read for a limited period on the Dictionary website.]
  • No quick fix for pupils with a fixed mindset about their own intelligence

    HeatherRolfe
    12 Jun 2015 | 4:42 am
    How children think about their own ability can affect their progress and achievement at school, according to a number of leading education researchers. The work of Stanford University psychologist Carol Dweck and her concept of “mindset” has been particularly influential in the way teachers are trying to change their pupils' views of their own intelligence.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Bruegel - Latest Updates

  • In bad faith

    4 Jul 2015 | 7:14 am
    On July 2, the IMF released its analysis of whether Greek debt was sustainable or not.  The report said that Greek debt was not sustainable and deep debt relief along with substantial new financing were needed to stabilize Greece. In reaching this new assessment, the IMF stated it had learned many lessons. Among them: Greeks would not take adequate structural reforms to spur growth, they would not sell enough of their assets to repay their debt, and they were unable to undertake sufficient fiscal austerity. That left no choice but to grant Greece greater debt relief and to provide new…
  • What is at stake in the referendum?

    3 Jul 2015 | 1:57 am
    The decision by the prime minister to call a referendum leaves the Greek citizens with a stark choice. The core of the question is whether Greek citizens will be ready or not to accept that in a monetary union financial assistance and solidarity are only extended if – in turn –the recipient accepts jointly agreed conditions. This is the core of the debate of the last months. It is this principle that the creditors will not be ready to give up – also because of their conviction, that a monetary union requires binding commitments and constraining institutions.  A “no” will mean…
  • Designing a new EU-Turkey strategic gas partnership

    2 Jul 2015 | 6:59 am
    The 2014 Ukraine crisis reinforced the EU’s quest for security of gas supply. The European Commission released an Energy Union Communication  in February, calling for intensified work on the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) and for the establishment of a new strategic energy partnership with Turkey. The Southern Gas Corridor in the EU gas security of supply architecture Source: Bruegel. In the last decade, the failure of the Nabucco pipeline project, combined with EU vagueness about the opening of the accession process’ energy chapter, has brought EU-Turkey energy relations to a dead-end.
  • Designing a new EU-Turkey strategic gas partnership

    2 Jul 2015 | 1:44 am
    • The European Commission’s February 2015 Energy Union Communication calls for intensified work on the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) and the establishment of a new strategic energy partnership with Turkey. The presence of the European Union and Turkey in the region is complementary in a number of ways. Building on this could unlock the region’s gas export potential and make gas supplies to the EU and Turkey more secure. • The EU should establish dedicated energy diplomacy taskforces with Turkey and each potential supplier in the region (Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Kurdistan Region…
  • “Juncker plan”: the EIB in the driver’s seat

    1 Jul 2015 | 6:30 am
    After weeks of negotiations with the European Commission and the Council of the EU, the European Parliament on 24 June adopted the text establishing the European Fund for Strategic Investment (EFSI), the instrument at the centre of Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker's investment plan. Now that the details of the plan are available we can assess more precisely how it will work and what its impact might be on European growth and employment. What is EFSI for? The plan tries to address the dramatic fall in investment affecting Europe since the beginning of the crisis. The yearly level of…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    TaxVox

  • Who Benefits the Most from an Across-the-Board Cut in Individual Tax Rates?

    Howard Gleckman
    2 Jul 2015 | 11:28 am
    Just about every tax reform plan calls for cutting individual tax rates. But it turns out that a one percentage point across-the-board rate cut would benefit only about six out of 10 households. The biggest beneficiaries:  those with the highest incomes. According to a new Tax Policy Center analysis, such a rate cut would add 0.5 percent to average after-tax income, or about $360. But households making less than $30,000-a-year in expanded cash income would receive almost no benefit at all, while those making $1 million or more would enjoy an average boost in after-tax income of 0.8 percent,…
  • Puerto Rico: Not Your Father’s Debt Crisis – or Your Greek Uncle’s

    Tracy Gordon
    1 Jul 2015 | 8:01 am
    In a remarkable statement, Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla announced this week that Puerto Rico’s debts are “not payable.” Nobody was really surprised. The island can work its way out of this financial mess with a two-pronged strategy: An aggressive short-term effort to raise taxes, cut spending, and improve financial controls combined with a long-run plan to boost economic development. But it’s going to have to show bondholders that it’s serious. Puerto Rico has been mired in a recession since 2006. Its unemployment rate hovers near 12 percent, more than twice the U.S. average.
  • MEGA tax credits: Will Michigan bust a deal, or will residents face the wheel?

    Renu Zaretsky
    1 Jul 2015 | 5:00 am
    In the classic post-apocalyptic film Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome, those who back out of deals in Tina Turner’s Bartertown face a wheel of fortune to determine their punishment. Hero and road warrior Max busts his deal with her, spins the wheel, and seals his own fate. The huge, lucrative tax subsidies Michigan gave the Big Three automakers (as well as tax breaks it gave to about 220 other lucky firms) got me thinking about Max. Nobody’s quite busted any deals, but Michigan taxpayers like me may have to face the wheel for years to come. Here’s the story: Back in the '90s, when the auto…
  • The Uneasy Case for a Financial Transaction Tax

    Len Burman
    30 Jun 2015 | 1:25 pm
    In recent years, there has been a resurgence of interest in an old idea—a financial transaction tax, or FTT. In a new paper, The Tax Policy Center has taken an in-depth look at the pros and cons of the levy. We’ve found that even a modest tax would raise a lot of money, and that it would be quite progressive. On the other hand, an FTT is no panacea. It could provoke lot of tax avoidance, despite the wishes of its backers, there is little evidence it would prevent the next financial crash. FTTs have been popular in less developed countries for years, and have been embraced by public…
  • One more step for equality, and two views on state EITCs

    Renu Zaretsky
    29 Jun 2015 | 5:00 am
    Congress is in recess. The Daily Deduction will return to its regular schedule on Monday, July 6. Wyden promises tax changes in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision on same-sex marriage. Following the Obergefell v. Hodges decision, senior Senate Finance Committee Democrat Ron Wyden said Friday, “As lawmakers, we must now turn our attention to ensuring that LGBTQ Americans enjoy the dignity and equal treatment under the law the Court has proclaimed in every other aspect of their lives…” He plans to introduce legislation to recognize and protect equal treatment in the nation’s tax…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Eschaton

  • More Thread

    4 Jul 2015 | 6:00 pm
    Add sound effects.
  • What's It All About Then

    4 Jul 2015 | 10:00 am
    Greece's Euro "membership" isn't about using the currency, it's about having access to various loan facilities and support from the ECB, which it already doesn't have.Bloomberg reports that Bulgaria, which is not a Euro member but backs its currency with Euro reserves, has just been allowed to borrow from the ECB at the same rate as Euro members, thus enabling it to firewall its banks from Greek contagion. This is a privilege normally only accorded to Euro members – and it has been WITHDRAWN from Greece. If this is true, then Bulgaria (non-Euro member) can obtain Euros from the ECB while…
  • Maybe In Another Six Months?

    4 Jul 2015 | 7:30 am
    Ask a cab driver?There's still no timeline for the tunnel.Seattle Tunnel Partners, the joint venture contractor to dig a highway tunnel to replace the Alaskan Way Viaduct, said in May it would produce a new estimated completion date by the end of June.That self-made deadline has passed.
  • Good Start

    4 Jul 2015 | 5:30 am
    Release them all.WASHINGTON — Sometime in the next few weeks, aides expect President Obama to issue orders freeing dozens of federal prisoners locked up on nonviolent drug offenses. With the stroke of his pen, he will probably commute more sentences at one time than any president has in nearly half a century.I suppose the drug crime issue is one I have "evolved" on. I'm not saying I ever thought that people should have their lives destroyed by the criminal justice due to nonviolent drug offenses, just that I failed to comprehend the magnitude of the problem - imprisonment, not drugs - and…
  • Morning Thread

    4 Jul 2015 | 2:49 am
    Almost time to watch 1776.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • July 4th

    Andrew
    4 Jul 2015 | 6:00 am
    Lucky to have been born an American. The post July 4th appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • “Why should anyone believe that? Why does it make sense to model a series of astronomical events as though they were spins of a roulette wheel in Vegas?”

    Andrew
    3 Jul 2015 | 6:35 am
    Deborah Mayo points us to a post by Stephen Senn discussing various aspects of induction and statistics, including the famous example of estimating the probability the sun will rise tomorrow. Senn correctly slams a journalistic account of the math problem: The canonical example is to imagine that a precocious newborn observes his first sunset, and wonders whether the sun will rise again or not. He assigns equal prior probabilities to both possible outcomes, and represents this by placing one white and one black marble into a bag. The following day, when the sun rises, the child places another…
  • Humility needed in decision-making

    Andrew
    2 Jul 2015 | 6:00 am
    Brian MacGillivray and Nick Pidgeon write: Daniel Gilbert maintains that people generally make bad decisions on risk issues, and suggests that communication strategies and education programmes would help (Nature 474, 275–277; 2011). This version of the deficit model pervades policy-making and branches of the social sciences. In this model, conflicts between expert and public perceptions of risk are put down to the difficulties that laypeople have in reasoning in the face of uncertainties rather than to deficits in knowledge per se. Indeed, this is the “Nudge” story we hear a…
  • Recently in the sister blog

    Andrew
    1 Jul 2015 | 6:30 am
    When is the death penalty okay? A court with no Protestants How much does advertising matter in presidential elections? Bartenders are Democrats, beer wholesalers are Republicans The ambiguity of racial categories No, public opinion is not driven by ‘unreasoning bias and emotion’ Political science: Who is it for? Modern campaigning has big effects on voter turnout Political writing that sounds good but makes no sense How much are Harry Potter’s glasses worth? The post Recently in the sister blog appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • Where does Mister P draw the line?

    Andrew
    30 Jun 2015 | 6:44 am
    Bill Harris writes: Mr. P is pretty impressive, but I’m not sure how far to push him in particular and MLM [multilevel modeling] in general. Mr. P and MLM certainly seem to do well with problems such as eight schools, radon, or the Xbox survey. In those cases, one can make reasonable claims that the performance of the eight schools (or the houses or the interviewees, conditional on modeling) are in some sense related. Then there are totally unrelated settings. Say you’re estimating the effect of silicone spray on enabling your car to get you to work: fixing a squeaky door hinge,…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    macroblog

  • Far Away Yet Close to Home: Discussing the Global Economy's Effects

    macroblog
    1 Jul 2015 | 12:09 pm
    In case you needed any motivation to take interest in the outcome of ongoing negotiations between the Greek government and its international creditors, this excerpt from the Wall Street Journal ought to do it: Global growth is really important. We are all connected through the financial markets, through foreign-exchange markets," Fed governor Jerome Powell said last week in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. "If global growth weakens, or remains weak, and we get into a trend of that, then yes, that will be a big headwind for the United States economy." Last week, I participated in the…
  • New Atlanta Fed Series Shows Wage Growth Held Steady in May

    macroblog
    29 Jun 2015 | 11:49 am
    According to the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker, a new series constructed using data from the Current Population Survey, the median increase in wages for individuals working in May 2014 and May 2015 was 3.3 percent (reported as a three-month average). Wage growth by this measure was essentially unchanged from April and 1 percentage point higher than the year-ago reading. The current pace of nominal hourly wage growth is similar to that seen during the labor market recovery of 2003–04 and about a percentage point below the pace experienced during 2006–07, which was the peak of…
  • Approaching the Promised Land? Yes and No

    macroblog
    23 Jun 2015 | 10:45 am
    Last Friday, we released our June installment of the Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) survey. Among the questions we put to our panel of businesses was a quarterly question on slack, asking firms to consider how their current sales levels compare to what they would consider normal. The good news is, on average, the gap between firms' current unit sales levels and what they would consider normal sales levels continues to close (see the chart). By our measure, firm sales, in the aggregate, are 1.9 percentage points below normal, a bit better than when we polled them in March (when they…
  • Will the Elevated Share of Part-Time Workers Last?

    macroblog
    19 Jun 2015 | 1:04 pm
    There seems to be mounting evidence that at least part of the elevated share of part-time employment in the economy is here to stay. We have some insights to offer based on a recent survey of our business contacts. Why are we interested? A higher part-time share of employment isn't necessarily a bad thing, if people are doing so voluntarily. Unfortunately, the elevated share is concentrated among people who would prefer to be working full-time. Using the average rate of decline over the past five years, the part-time for economic reasons (PTER) share of employment is projected to reach its…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • The something for nothing culture

    chris
    4 Jul 2015 | 5:28 am
    One thing I'd like George Osborne to do in Wednesday's "emergency" Budget is to end the something for nothing culture. I know someone who has made almost £400,000 tax-free without working - equivalent to almost 20 years of getting the maximum welfare benefits the Tories are considering. Thanks to this, he is looking forward to a prosperous early retirement. This is surely unfair, given that so many younger people might have to work until they drop. That someone, of course, is me. And the £400,000 is the tax-free profit I made from rising house prices. In this respect, I…
  • Poverty & ideology

    chris
    2 Jul 2015 | 6:49 am
    Iain Duncan Smith wants to shift the definition of child poverty from one based upon low incomes to one based on educational attainment, worklessness and addiction. What's at stake here is, as Amelia Gentleman points out, an ideological issue: is poverty due to individual failings or to the structure of society? Of course, some parents of poor children are feckless workshy druggies. But in a population of 64.6 million people, pretty much anything is true of someone. Two big facts, however, suggest that the link between child poverty and parental failure is weak. One comes from the…
  • Inequality, the state & the left

    chris
    30 Jun 2015 | 7:34 am
    To what extent can the state be used to advance leftist aims? This is one of the questions posed by the Greek crisis. But two things I've seen recently suggest the left in the UK should also be asking this. First, Fraser Nelson points out that kids who attend schools in the poorest areas are significantly less likely to get five good GCSEs than those in better-off areas. In this sense, state schooling is inegalitarian. As Heather Rolfe says, poor white kids get a poor deal from education. Secondly, the ONS says that in 2013-14 the poorest fifth of households paid a higher proportion of…
  • Inequality: the right's problem

    chris
    28 Jun 2015 | 5:22 am
    Are trends in UK inequality more of a problem for the right than left? I'm prompted to ask by the fact that recent years have seen two different trends. On the one hand, there's been increased equality between the moderately well-off and the moderately badly off: the 90/10 and 80/20 ratios for post-tax income have fallen back to 1980s' levels. But on the other hand, top incomes have risen; although the share of incomes going to the top 1% (Excel) has fallen since the recession, it is twice what it was in the mid-70s. One could argue that both these trends should worry the right…
  • Managerialism vs innovation

    chris
    25 Jun 2015 | 6:39 am
    Does management's pursuit of efficiency crowd out innovation? I ask because of two interviews I've seen recently. First is Matt Ridley's with Hon Lik, inventor of the e-cigarette, which describes how Mr Lik's invention was inspired by his own desire to quit smoking and facilitated by the fact that the "lab where he worked had a good supply of pure nicotine". Secondly, Toru Iwatani, the creator of Pac Man, tells the FT: Japanese game companies used to be places of total freedom. We had almost no orders, except to make fun games. Mr Iwatani, says the FT, is…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Moneybox

  • Whole Foods Is Sorry It Systematically Lied About Some of Its Prices

    Alison Griswold
    2 Jul 2015 | 3:05 pm
    Whole Foods, you might recall, is in the middle of a drastic rebranding. It’s working to transition from “whole paycheck” to “values matter,” and just last month announced a new line of stores designed specifically for millennials. So while it’s turning around and all, Whole Foods would also like to apologize for some things it did wrong—specifically, for systematically overcharging customers. Yes, that’s right. Last week, the New York City Department of Consumer Affairs said it was conducting an ongoing investigation into local Whole Foods stores after finding that the chain…
  • Companies That Exploit Unpaid Interns Just Won a Huge Victory at Court

    Jordan Weissmann
    2 Jul 2015 | 1:19 pm
    For a while, it seemed that unpaid internships were about to become relics of history. In 2013, a federal trial court judge in New York ruled that Fox Searchlight should have paid interns who worked on the production of its Oscar-winning film Black Swan, because they were indistinguishable from regular employees, tasked as they were with fetching coffee, taking phone calls, handling paperwork, and in one case apparently buying a non-allergenic pillow for director Darren Aronofsky. The decision helped usher in a wave of lawsuits by former interns against their employers in the media business.
  • Today’s Jobs Report: Cloudy With a Chance of Labor Market Slack

    Jordan Weissmann
    2 Jul 2015 | 6:26 am
    Here is the reason to be somewhat happy with today's jobs report: In June, U.S. employers added 223,000 workers to their payrolls, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Since the beginning of 2013, the U.S. country has added, according to my trusty Excel spreadsheet, exactly 223,000 jobs per month on average. It's not often that you have a perfectly average month. This is like the harvest moon of economic reports. Also, the unemployment rate fell to 5.3 percent, from 5.5 percent. Here are the reasons to be less happy with today's jobs report: pretty much everything else. The…
  • One Industry That Will Hate Obama’s New Overtime Rules: The Media

    Jordan Weissmann
    30 Jun 2015 | 3:28 pm
    Today the Obama administration officially proposed new regulations that it says will entitle at least 4.6 million additional Americans to overtime pay. On the whole, it seems like a reasonable move that may encourage businesses to hire more workers rather than milk employees for all the uncompensated labor they can get away with. But, man, let me tell you—this is going to make life difficult for your favorite magazines and websites. Under the rule change, most salaried employees who earn less the $50,440 per year will automatically be eligible for time-and-a-half pay when they work more…
  • Nobody Has Any Idea What’s Going On With Greece Right Now

    Jordan Weissmann
    30 Jun 2015 | 9:15 am
    As of Monday, it seemed as if the Greek crisis was finally hurtling toward a conclusion, or at least a meaningful inflection point. With its bailout deal expiring and negotiations for an extension logjammed, the government in Athens had called a national referendum for July 5 on whether it should accept the austerity plan its European lenders had demanded in return for a new rescue package. A "yes" vote, and Greece would get another round of loans to pay its existing debts but would be doomed to keep slogging through the depression that has left unemployment above 25 percent. A…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Economic Development Blog » Economic Development Blog -

  • Comic-Con Will Continue to Boost San Diego Economic Development

    Economic Development HQ.com
    3 Jul 2015 | 8:25 am
    Even as San Diego gears up for the 46th annual Comic Con, San Diego Mayor Kevin L. Faulconer and Comic-Con International have announced an agreement on keeping the convention in San Diego through to at least 2018. Video – SDCC Comic-Con International is the San Diego Convention Center’s largest event of the year by far, attracting 130,000 attendees and impacting San Diego economic development in many different ways. The attendees fill up 59,228 hotel room nights, and the SDCC pegs their direct spending at about $80.43 million. The event provides an estimated $320,000 in wages to…
  • Nevada Considers Economic Development Incentives for Switch Data Center Expansions

    Economic Development HQ.com
    2 Jul 2015 | 10:32 pm
    The agenda for the next meeting of the Nevada Governor’s Office of Economic Development (GOED) Board includes an application from Switch, LTD. for tax abatements for proposed billion dollar data center investments in Storey and Clark Counties. Nevada State Capitol (photo -Amadscientist/wikimedia) Earlier this year in January, Switch had announced plans for a billion dollar expansion of its Las Vegas data center operations, and another billion dollar proposal for a new Northern Nevada center in the Tahoe Regional Industrial Center outside Reno. In addition to the construction of the…
  • Winston-Salem, NC Economic Development Partnership Secure Herbalife Expansion

    Economic Development HQ.com
    2 Jul 2015 | 9:28 pm
    Global nutrition company Herbalife Ltd. announced plans for an expansion of its innovation and manufacturing facility in Winston-Salem, NC. Herbalife (photo – herbalife.com) Supported by the NC Commerce Dept, Economic Development Partnership of North Carolina, Forsyth County, City of Winston-Salem and economic development group Winston Salem Business, Inc., the company will invest $3.5 million by the end of this year and create 301 new jobs by the end of 2018. The new jobs will have an average annual wage will be $54,506, notably higher than the $47,624 average annual wage in Forsyth…
  • Seattle Economic Development Office Seeks Partner for Manufacturing Incubator Project

    Economic Development HQ.com
    2 Jul 2015 | 8:05 am
    The City of Seattle has put out an RFP seeking a partner for helping the City develop a manufacturing incubator that will assist and benefit manufacturing sector startups and expansions in the city. Seattle OED manufacturing incubator (photo -seattle.gov) One of the key objectives of the partnership is to retain and create new employment in the manufacturing sector in Seattle. Selected partners will work with the Seattle Office of Economic Development to create an affordable space for new and existing small manufacturers, lower their cost barriers, and allow them to grow and collaborate.
  • NYC Economic Development Corp Launches Connect IBZ Broadband Expansion

    Economic Development HQ.com
    1 Jul 2015 | 9:55 pm
    The NYC Economic Development Corporation announced the launch of a new $5.3 million public-private partnership to expand broadband in industrial business zones (IBZs) in New York City. Connect IBZ (photo – nycedc.com) The initiative, called Connect IBZ, will invest in broadband infrastructure to construct access to high-speed Internet in these currently underserved areas. Fast and reliable broadband has become increasingly critical for businesses of all kinds. Connect IBZ will help bridge this digital divide in the IBZs by increasing access to broadband connectivity for the businesses…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Washington Center for Equitable Growth

  • Things to Read at Nighttime on July 4, 2015

    Brad DeLong
    4 Jul 2015 | 4:51 pm
    Must- and Should-Reads: Must-Read: Simon Wren-Lewis: The Ideologues of the Eurozone Paul de Grauwe: “Accepting that the (restructured) Greek debt is sustainable opens the door to both a softening of the austerity programme and to liquidity support of the Greek banking sector…” Duncan Wheldon: “Syriza has transformed from ‘end austerity’ to ‘implement austerity in a left wing redistributionary way’ to ‘slightly tweak existing austerity’. That’s quite a journey in a matter of weeks…” Might Like to Be Aware of: Duncan…
  • Department of “HUH!? WTF!?!?”: Greek Crisis Troika-Defending Ideologues Edition

    Brad DeLong
    4 Jul 2015 | 4:36 pm
    Angel Ubide writes: @mark_dow Good points.Sadly we'll never know if pre-Syriza growth sustainable. Bberg consensus thought so cc:@delong pic.twitter.com/QpQ1m4vcwN — Angel Ubide (@AngelUbide) July 4, 2015 Ummmm… “Pre-Syriza growth” would return Greek GDP to its 1975-1999 trend… never. “Pre-Syriza growth” was at a pace that would not return Greek real GDP to the 2007 level of the 1975-1999 trend (if you think that was Greece’s “real” potential output in 2007) until… 2023. “Pre-Syriza growth” was at a pace that…
  • Must-Read: Simon Wren-Lewis: The Ideologues of the Eurozone

    Brad DeLong
    4 Jul 2015 | 3:55 pm
    Must-Read: Simon Wren-Lewis, who is very smart and has followed the Eurozone crisis much more closely than I have, seems to have joined the Ancient, Hermetic, and Occult Order of the Shrill: “Ph’nglui mglw’nafh Euro R’lyeh wgah’nagl fhtagn!”. We wish him luck with his new appointment at Miskatonic University in picturesque Arkham, Massachusetts. And we are seriously considering, after reading him, whether the Euro project needs to blown up–indeed, whether the fundamental flaw was in U.S. occupation authorities allowing the formation of the…
  • Things to Read on the Afternoon of July 3, 2015

    Brad DeLong
    3 Jul 2015 | 12:05 pm
    Must- and Should-Reads: James Galbraith: Greece: Only the ‘No’ Can Save the Euro: As Greece prepares for a referendum on its creditors’ demands for austerity, the future of Europe hangs in the balance Cardiff Garcia and Diane Coyle: Camp Alphaville videos: Is GDP losing its relevance? Simon Wren-Lewis: The Greek people have paid for their governments’ mistakes – and for the errors of the Troika Joseph Cotterill: “It’s a Greek debt sustainability analysis by IMF staff… the frankest effort… so far to acknowledge the straits Greece is in regarding its…
  • Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Europe’s Many Economic Disasters

    Brad DeLong
    3 Jul 2015 | 10:16 am
    Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Europe’s Many Economic Disasters: “It’s depressing thinking about Greece… …So let’s talk about something else… Finland, which couldn’t be more different from that corrupt, irresponsible country to the south… a model European citizen; it has honest government, sound finances and a solid credit rating, which lets it borrow money at incredibly low interest rates. It’s also in the eighth year of a slump that has cut real gross domestic product per capita by 10 percent and shows no sign of ending…. If it weren’t for the…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    FiveThirtyEight » Economics | FiveThirtyEight

  • Did Nielsen Kill The Radio Star?

    Carl Bialik
    30 Jun 2015 | 8:00 am
    At the start of 2008, everything was going well at Chicago’s WNUA 95.5-FM. The smooth-jazz station ranked in the top five in the city in listeners age 25 to 54, and its research showed that the station had a passionate, loyal, engaged audience. “The arrows for WNUA were still pointing up,” said Rick O’Dell, a former host and program director at WNUA.But by July, arrows for WNUA and other smooth-jazz stations started pointing down, seemingly overnight in some cases. Ratings fell, sometimes sharply — down 20 percent for WNUA from the spring period. Advertisers fled. Station…
  • Early College High Schools Are Off To A Promising Start

    Hayley Munguia
    29 Jun 2015 | 7:22 pm
    Cletus Andoh and Radcliffe Saddler are just two of 3.3 million students across the country who are celebrating their recent graduation from high school, but their path to a diploma was unlike that of most of their peers. Because of that difference, they will spend Tuesday at the White House discussing the future of education reform for the “Celebrating Innovations in Career and Technical Education” event as part of Michelle Obama’s Reach Higher initiative.Cletus Andoh, who is heading to Syracuse University in the fall.P-TECH/IBMAndoh, 17, who will continue his education at Syracuse…
  • Putting A Price Tag On The Stress Of Having A Child

    Andrew Flowers
    11 Jun 2015 | 3:01 am
    My wife and I are expecting a baby girl in September, and Daniel Hamermesh has a scary message for soon-to-be parents like us: The impact that a new baby has on your pocketbook is trumped by the impact on your stress levels. In a new study, Hamermesh, an economist at the University of Texas at Austin, translates that stress into dollar figures and finds it is “so huge as to be almost unbelievable,” he told me. (Gulp.)In fact, the stress costs are so large, Hamermesh argues, that our family would need a lot more income to compensate. “If we thought about it more, we’d have fewer…
  • Teaching Youth To Think ‘Slow’ May Help Reduce Crime

    Andrew Flowers
    4 Jun 2015 | 2:59 am
    Each week during the school year, groups of about a dozen middle and high school boys from some of the poorest neighborhoods on Chicago’s south and west sides sit in a circle and talk about their emotions. These students, almost all of whom are African-American or Hispanic, participate in a school program called Becoming A Man, or BAM, put on by the nearly 90-year-old local nonprofit Youth Guidance.In an activity known as the “Fist Exercise,” students are paired up, one is given a small ball and his partner is given 30 seconds to try to get it from him. The exercise often ends with…
  • Where Police Have Killed Americans In 2015

    Ben Casselman
    3 Jun 2015 | 8:58 am
    On Monday, the Guardian launched “The Counted,” an impressive interactive database of Americans killed by police since the start of the year. As of Tuesday, the database had 467 entries; the Guardian plans to add to it going forward.As we’ve written repeatedly, official statistics on police killings are deeply flawed. So the Guardian is building its data set by combining media coverage, reader submissions and open-sourced efforts like Fatal Encounters and Killed by Police, which we’ve previously found to be reliable. The Guardian then verifies those incidents with its own…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Vox - All

  • Greek referendum: The best cases for "no" and "yes"

    Matthew Yglesias
    4 Jul 2015 | 11:00 pm
    When the people of Greece go to the polls on Sunday to decide on their economic future, they're going to face a really difficult choice. They're being asked to decide whether to accept European demands for further austerity. If they reject those demands, they're likely to be forced out of the euro altogether. We're torn on how Greeks should vote, because all of their options are bad. Either option is likely to lead to more economic pain, and there's a lot of uncertainty about the long-term results of either decision. But we thought it would be interesting to write what we felt were the…
  • A chemist explains the science of fireworks

    Brad Plumer
    4 Jul 2015 | 4:00 pm
    Before you go celebrate the 4th of July, it's worth brushing up on… the science of fireworks: Fireworks have gotten a lot more advanced since the discovery of gunpowder in China more than 1,000 years ago. In the video above, John Conkling, a chemist at Washington College, explains how modern-day fireworks are made. The big aerial fireworks we tend to see on the 4th of July basically look like this: And there are three broad steps here: 1) This entire aerial shell is first shot out of a mortar by lighting the "black powder propellant" (a mix of potassium nitrate, charcoal, and sulfur —…
  • The movie Independence Day teaches us that victory is more important than principles

    Mike Case
    4 Jul 2015 | 1:55 pm
    The hostile alien intruders in the film Independence Day caught the world by surprise, arriving like a well-coordinated swarm of locusts to wipe out humanity and take all our natural resources. It was only through grit, ingenuity, and overwhelming patriotism that America could figure out how to defeat the enemy and lead the world in a 4th of July counter offensive to bring the bastards down. Marine pilot and wannabe astronaut Captain Steven Hiller (Will Smith) might have been the flashy star of the film, punching aliens in the face and delivering back-to-back one-liners. But in the end,…
  • 5 ways America is more free than before

    German Lopez
    4 Jul 2015 | 11:00 am
    The Fourth of July is a celebration of America's freedom. What better way to celebrate the day than to admire some of the ways the country has liberated itself in the past few years? Sure, America is not perfect — no nation is. But on Independence Day, it's okay to focus on some of the positives. From same-sex marriage to marijuana legalization to war, it's pretty clear that America is getting freer in some areas — even if it still has a lot of work to do on some issues. 1) Same-sex marriage is now legal in all 50 states Christophe Haubursin/Vox With the Supreme Court's ruling last week,…
  • One paragraph that perfectly explains patriotism

    Zack Beauchamp
    4 Jul 2015 | 8:10 am
    July 4th is about patriotism, which — realistically speaking — means barbecues and explosions. But there's also the actual "love of country" thing, which a lot of people take to mean blind faith in your country's awesomeness. But Scottish philosopher Alasdair MacIntyre has a way more interesting take. For MacIntyre, patriotism isn't just loving your country or knowing when to criticize it — it's also a rock-solid foundation on which morality, and indeed our very sense of self, rests. Here, as something to help think about the celebration of the day and what it means, is the single best…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Commentary - Money, Banking and Financial Markets

  • Interview with Gill Marcus

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    2 Jul 2015 | 10:01 am
    Gill Marcus, former Governor, South African Reserve Bank; former Professor, Gordon Institute of Business Science; former Deputy Minister of Finance (South Africa); and former Chair, Absa Group. Has the experience of the crisis changed your view of the central bank policy toolkit?Governor Marcus: Prior to the global financial crisis, central bank toolkits had become whittled down to, with a few exceptions, the policy rate. At that time there were two widely accepted propositions: first, that monetary policy would become ineffective at the zero lower bound; and second, that monetary policy…
  • Poking Bigger Holes in China's Great Financial Wall

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    29 Jun 2015 | 4:39 am
    At the third plenary session of China’s 18th Central Committee (the “Third Plenum”) in November 2013, China’s leaders adopted a broad national reform strategy (see here for a scorecard of the economic plans). Included were the liberalization of the country’s government-controlled financial system and the internationalization of its currency, the renminbi (RMB). A year ago, we argued that when it comes to freeing both its domestic and its external finances, China had a long way to go. We also suggested that the pace of liberalization would remain gradual, reflecting policymakers’…
  • Monetary policy and financial inclusion

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    22 Jun 2015 | 5:43 am
    Central bankers usually steer clear of discussions about inequality. They view monetary policy as a tool for stabilizing the economy. For many central banks, like the ECB or the Bank of England, this means price stability. For others, like the Federal Reserve, it means a combination of high employment and low inflation. Regardless of the goals, issues involving the distribution of income are generally left to the fiscal authorities.For the most part, this division of labor is sensible. However, their mandates require central banks to make policy tradeoffs that are influenced by the prevailing…
  • Interview with John Lipsky

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    18 Jun 2015 | 11:56 am
    John Lipsky, Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies; former Acting Managing Director, International Monetary Fund; former Vice Chairman, JPMorgan Investment Bank; former chief economist, JPMorgan Chase.Has the experience of the crisis changed your view of the central bank policy toolkit?Managing Director Lipsky: In many ways, the onset of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) underscored earlier views about central banks’ policy roles and policy options. At the same time, recent experience highlighted both the expanded policy agenda currently facing central banks,…
  • Dodd-Frank: Five Years After

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    15 Jun 2015 | 5:30 am
    On July 21, 2010, President Obama signed the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (hereafter, DF), the most sweeping financial regulatory reform in the United States since the 1930s. DF explicitly aims to limit systemic risk, allow for the safe resolution of the largest intermediaries, submit risky nonbanks to greater scrutiny, and reform derivatives trading.How to celebrate its fifth birthday? Well, if you are like us, it will be a sober affair, reflecting serious worries about the continued vulnerability of the financial system.Let’s have a look at the most noteworthy…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Republic 3.0

  • The long term care time bomb

    Anne Kim
    30 Jun 2015 | 4:00 am
    Financing long term care for America's rapidly growing cohort of aging Americans is an urgent unsolved challenge. The post The long term care time bomb appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • Who will win the 21st century “brains race”?

    Rep. Derek Kilmer
    25 Jun 2015 | 6:07 am
    Congress must invest in basic research for America to stay ahead. The post Who will win the 21st century “brains race”? appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • Why Minnesota will crown Hillary Clinton in 2016

    Stefan Hankin
    24 Jun 2015 | 8:52 am
    The outcome of the 2016 election may already be a foregone conclusion. The post Why Minnesota will crown Hillary Clinton in 2016 appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • “Known Knowns” on TAA and the trade debate

    Edward Gerwin, Jr.
    20 Jun 2015 | 10:59 am
    If Democrats gamble with Trade Adjustment Assistance, American workers could be the losers. The post “Known Knowns” on TAA and the trade debate appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • FAA reauthorization poses opportunities for U.S. aviation leadership and growth

    Rep. Rick Larsen
    19 Jun 2015 | 12:00 am
    The U.S. must keep up with the latest technological advances around the world, from unmanned aircraft to next-generation airspace management. The post FAA reauthorization poses opportunities for U.S. aviation leadership and growth appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Principles of Economics and Business

  • What Type of Entrepreneur Are You?

    30 Jun 2015 | 6:17 am
    There is no such thing as the stereotypical entrepreneur. Even though there are some traits that most entrepreneurs may have in common (e.g. persistence, dedication), we can find a wide variety of different personality types among them. To provide a simple overview we will try to classify these types into several groups. This will also allow you to find out what kind of entrepreneur you are.Now, to make this distinction we will need two dimensions. The first one is whether or not entrepreneurs are trying to predict the future. This is important because it significantly affects their…
  • How to Become a Successful Entrepreneur [Infographic]

    16 Jun 2015 | 12:40 am
    Starting your own business is a tough job. There are thousands of new companies founded every year all around the world, but most of them fail within the first five years of operation. However, for the few ventures that actually make it, the upside potential is virtually unlimited. The latest research on entrepreneurship (see also: Entrepreneurial Method) shows that the success of a venture depends on much more than just its business case. Hence, if you want to start your own business, you have to know what it takes to be successful and how you can increase your chances.With this in mind…
  • The Entrepreneurial Method

    28 May 2015 | 5:06 am
    There are thousands of new companies founded every year all around the world. Most of them fail within the first five years of operation. However, there are a few extremely successful ventures that become incredibly valuable in a short period of time.Hence, we have asked ourselves: What does it take to be a successful entrepreneur. Why are some successful while most others fail. And how can we increase the chances of becoming successful entrepreneurs?Fortunately enough, scientists have already done quite a lot of research on this. One concept that stands out is what we call…
  • Why Do Firms Need Growth?

    14 May 2015 | 10:32 am
    Growth is one of the most prominent business objectives of many firms. In recent years it has become almost self-evident that a company has to grow in order to be successful. No matter what firm or business, there always seems to be a need for further expansion. In other words, growth has become an imperative.Admittedly, this may not come as a surprise, considering we live in an economic system that builds on constant growth (see also Do We Really Need Economic Growth?). In that sense, companies would need to grow simply because they are a part of the system and all the others are doing…
  • Connecting Business and Economics

    30 Apr 2015 | 1:32 pm
    Business and economics are highly interrelated. At the end of the day one would not exist without the other. The success of any business depends on a variety of economic aspects and at the same time businesses essentially make up the economy.However despite this unquestionable connection, we often only hear about business or economics. In particular, many people fail to notice that in order to be successful in business it is  essential to have at least a basic level of economic understanding. Therefore we will look at how business and economics can be connected.Business…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Innovative Advisory Group

  • Inflation Monitor – June 2015

    Kirk Chisholm
    26 Jun 2015 | 8:15 am
    Inflation Monitor – June 2015 Inflation Monitor Summary - Composite Ranking   * The Inflation Equilibrium is a quick summary for the whole data series of the inflation monitor. If you don't like statistics, this is the chart for you.   Inflation Monitor - June 2015 - Introduction It is officially summer and most markets are becoming more quiet. This is of course excluding the ongoing crisis in Greece. They must love the attention because they have been dragging out this "crisis" since 2011. Everyone involved in this mess (on both sides) has a reason to kick the can down…
  • What You Don’t Know About Renting vs Buying a Home Can Cost You Money

    Kirk Chisholm
    22 Jun 2015 | 7:29 am
    What You Don’t Know About Renting vs Buying a Home Can Cost You Money   "If you rent a home, it is an expense. When you buy a home, it is an expense. If you buy a home and rent it out to a third party, it becomes an investment. A better way to put it is that when you are renting, you rent from a landlord. When you buy a home to live in, you are renting from yourself." This is the third and last post of this series. The first post, Should You Rent or Buy a Home?, examined what factors you should consider when renting vs buying a home. The second post, What is the True Cost of…
  • What is the True Cost of Owning a Home?

    Kirk Chisholm
    10 Jun 2015 | 7:04 am
    What is the True Cost of Owning a Home?     In the prior post of this series, Should You Rent or Buy a Home?, I wrote about the pros and cons of home ownership vs renting. It is important to start here when you are considering whether to rent or buy a home. The decision of where to live should not be solely made on emotional attachment or financial considerations. It should be made up of both if you are planning on living in a home for many years. You want to love where you live. This week’s post will be focused more on the financial considerations of renting vs buying a home.
  • Inflation Monitor – May 2015

    Kirk Chisholm
    1 Jun 2015 | 7:30 am
    Inflation Monitor – May 2015 Inflation Monitor Summary - Composite Ranking * The Inflation Equilibrium is a quick summary for the whole data series of the inflation monitor. If you don't like statistics, this is the chart for you.   Inflation Monitor - May 2015 - Introduction   This month we were a bit slow getting this out due to some website upgrades. We expect that this June version of the Inflation Monitor will be out in 2 weeks so you will get a double dose of information. May was a month of mixed results. Some data is showing some signs of life with inflation, but…
  • Should You Rent or Buy a Home?

    Kirk Chisholm
    27 May 2015 | 7:30 am
    Should You Rent or Buy a Home? "But there has been also the American dream, that dream of a land in which life should be better and richer and fuller for every man, with opportunity for each according to ability or achievement. It is a difficult dream for the European upper classes to interpret adequately, and too many of us ourselves have grown weary and mistrustful of it. It is not a dream of motor cars and high wages merely, but a dream of social order in which each man and each woman shall be able to attain to the fullest stature of which they are innately capable, and be recognized by…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Hoosier Econ

  • The Most Popular Items Shoplifters Like to Steal

    Hoosier Econ
    4 Jul 2015 | 8:21 am
    Financial advocate Clark Howard posted the top theft items shoplifters like to nab. Here’s the rundown – The average theft per shoplifting occurrence is now roughly $320, according to the National Retail Federation! Grocery Cigarettes Energy drinks High-end liquor Infant formula Health and beauty Teeth whitening strips Pregnancy tests Razors Over-the-counter medicine Allergy medicine Diabetic […]
  • Happy Independence Day from Hoosier Econ

    Hoosier Econ
    4 Jul 2015 | 5:35 am
  • Chicago: Hey, Lets Tax Netflix

    Hoosier Econ
    2 Jul 2015 | 7:21 am
    The financial stress of the City of Chicago financial obligations is growing. This week the city had to make a $634 Million payment to Chicago teachers pension plan and now are looking at a $175 Million property tax increase. But they are not done taxing and when governments are broke, they get desperate. Here is more […]
  • Price of an iPhone 6 in Venezuela

    Hoosier Econ
    1 Jul 2015 | 7:43 am
    In America, famous people like Michael Moore and Sean Penn will tell you how much the U.S. needs to adopt Venezuela’s political/economic system. Unfortunately for them there is this thing called the media and they keep track of Venezuela’s dire situation. Their economy is in a massive inflation spike. If you want to buy a […]
  • 2015 Most Popular Fast Food Chains

    Hoosier Econ
    30 Jun 2015 | 7:05 am
    Via CNN – While satisfaction with the restaurant industry has waned, the survey found Americans still eat out an average of four times a week. The American Customer Satisfaction Index included responses from more than 5,000 individuals and ranked the food established from a scale of 1 to 100. American Customer Satisfaction Index Restaurant Report 2015 […]
 
Log in