Economics

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  • 2:00PM Water Cooler 10/22/14

    naked capitalism
    Lambert Strether
    22 Oct 2014 | 10:58 am
    Today's Water Cooler: Shootings on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Hong Kong, dueling autopsies in Ferguson, CPI release, slavery, and trouble with visualizations.
  • China’s Hong Kong Follies

    Project Syndicate RSS-Feed
    Sin-ming Shaw
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:30 am
    The massive protests that have roiled Hong Kong in recent weeks are ostensibly demands for more democracy. But they actually reflect frustration among a population that has been poorly governed by a succession of leaders picked by China’s central government more for their loyalty than their competence.
  • Econometrics, open science, and cryptocurrency

    interfluidity
    Steve Randy Waldman
    17 Oct 2014 | 7:29 am
    Mark Thoma wrote the wisest two paragraphs you will read about econometrics and empirical statistical research in general: You are testing a theory you came up with, but the data are uncooperative and say you are wrong. But instead of accepting that, you tell yourself "My theory is right, I just haven't found the right econometric specification yet. I need to add variables, remove variables, take a log, add an interaction, square a term, do a different correction for misspecification, try a different sample period, etc., etc., etc." Then, after finally digging out that one…
  • Why do recessions occur?… One answer points to Productivity

    Angry Bear
    Edward Lambert
    22 Oct 2014 | 2:04 pm
    Noah Smith made a thought-provoking statement on twitter, “Sometimes I wonder what actually causes recessions.” He received a slew of responses. While one could point to many causes, including tight money and the beats of butterfly wings, I look primarily to the dynamics of productivity. Here is a graph of year-over-year productivity growth… You will […]
  • QE Timeline Update

    Calculated Risk
    Bill McBride
    22 Oct 2014 | 1:31 pm
    With QE3 expected to end next week, by request, here is an updated timeline of QE (and Twist operations):• November 25, 2008: Press Release: $100 Billion GSE direct obligations, $500 billion in MBS• December 16, 2008 FOMC Statement: Evaluating benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury Securities• January 28, 2009: FOMC Statement: FOMC Stands Ready to expand program.• March 18, 2009: FOMC Statement: Expand MBS program to $1.25 trillion, buy up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities• March 31, 2010: QE1 purchases were completed at the end of Q1 2010.• August 27, 2010:…
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    Real Time Economics

  • U.K. Mortgage Holders So Far Unfazed By Prospect of Higher Rates

    Jon Sindreu
    22 Oct 2014 | 1:55 pm
    Mortgage holders in the U.K. don’t appear to be losing sleep over fear that the Bank of England will increase interest rates soon, according to a survey released Thursday. The poll by research firm YouGov PLC in association with the Council of Mortgage Lenders found 60% of respondents believed they expected their finances to be the same or better in three years time, despite expecting interest rates to go up soon. Of those saying they have trouble paying their mortgage, 61% claim to be affected by the cost of living going up, 41% attributed it to minimal savings and 36% pointed to low or…
  • Why Rising Rents Haven’t Pumped Up Inflation

    Kathleen Madigan
    22 Oct 2014 | 11:16 am
    Policy makers and economy-watchers now seem more worried about disinflation rather than accelerating inflation. That wasn’t the expectation at the start of the year. In January, economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected inflation–measured by the consumer price index–would end 2014 at a 2.3% annual rate, up from the 1.5% rate of 2013. Instead, inflation through September is running at a 1.7%, according to Wednesday’s CPI report. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also stands at just 1.7%. One reason that inflation was forecast to accelerate this year was the…
  • China Economy On Track For Sweeping Reform, Asia Society Report Finds

    Michael J. Casey
    22 Oct 2014 | 9:09 am
    A vendor displays a souvenir with pictures of Chinese President Xi Jinping, left, and the late Chinese Chairman Mao Zedong to visitors at the underpass outside the Great Hall of the People where the Communist Party’s 205-member Central Committee gathered for its third annual plenum on Nov. 12, 2013, in Beijing. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images China’s leadership is making real headway in an ambitious program to liberalize its economy and if all goes to plan it will maintain a respectable 6% growth rate in 2020, according to a new detailed analysis of the reform agenda laid out at last…
  • N.Y. Fed Official Christine Cumming to Retire in June 2015

    Michael S. Derby
    22 Oct 2014 | 9:00 am
    The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Wednesday that veteran official Christine Cumming will retire next summer. Christine Cumming, first vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, will retire next summer. Bloomberg News Ms. Cumming, currently first vice president and chief operating officer at the bank, has worked there for 35 years, holding numerous positions. She worked primarily on bank operations and payments systems, as well as in its research department. Ms. Cumming will step down in June 2015. New York Fed chief William Dudley said in a statement that “Christine’s…
  • More American Children Are Living With Their Grandparents

    Neil Shah
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:33 am
    Roughly 10% of U.S. children were living with a grandparent in 2012, up from 7% in 1992, according to a report from the Census Bureau released Wednesday. The increase stems partly from rising life expectancy in the U.S., which means more grandparents are available to help care for children—especially in cases where both parents are busy working. However, the Census findings may also reflect pressures in the economy that are forcing more grandparents to act as substitute parents: Of America’s 65 million grandparents, 2.7 million were raising their grandchildren. And nearly 40% of those had…
 
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    naked capitalism

  • 2:00PM Water Cooler 10/22/14

    Lambert Strether
    22 Oct 2014 | 10:58 am
    Today's Water Cooler: Shootings on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Hong Kong, dueling autopsies in Ferguson, CPI release, slavery, and trouble with visualizations.
  • Matt Stoller: Why Is Alan Greenspan’s Lawyer, Scott Alvarez, Still Controlling the Federal Reserve? (AIG Bailout Trial)

    Yves Smith
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:55 am
    Yves here. This important post explains why Scott Alvarez, the general counsel of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, needs to be fired. His responses to the plaintiffs' questions at the AIG bailout trial weren't simply evasive; they reveal a deep, almost visceral, dedication to defending the very policies that nearly destroyed the world economy as well as a salvage operation that favored financial firms over the real economy. We have embedded the transcripts from the first three days of the AIG bailout trial, which cover Alvarez's performance on the stand, at the end of this post.
  • Links 10/22/14

    Yves Smith
    22 Oct 2014 | 3:55 am
  • Forward Guidance: Human Plans and Divine Laughter

    Yves Smith
    22 Oct 2014 | 2:13 am
    ves here. VoxEU has come to serve as a wonky alternative to the Financial Times comments section, which is Brit-speak for op-eds. While most FT comments are at least interesting and timely, now and again the pink paper serves as a venue where real policy players put a stake in the ground, sometimes in exclusive interviews but also in opinion pieces. This article by David Miles of the Bank of England is clearly intended to reach a wider audience than the normal VoxEU piece. In it, he calmly and methodically tries to tell finance people that what they want from central bank forward guidance is…
  • 350.org’s Bill McKibben, His Parachute, and His Bubble

    Lambert Strether
    21 Oct 2014 | 11:55 pm
    I know, I know. Criticizing Bill McKibben is like kicking a puppy.
 
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    Alpha.Sources

  • Another Eurozone Crisis Ahead?

    CV
    19 Oct 2014 | 5:52 am
    Calamities happen in financial markets, and usually when investors least expect and are least prepared for it. In the euro area, weak growth in the past six months and the inability of the ECB's measures to turn asset markets arounds have led investors to, once again, revisit their sovereign debt crisis playbooks.  This is understandable, but also now raises a fundamental question. If we are about to tumble into round 2 (or 3?) of the sovereign debt crisis, Eurozone bears may still prevail holding on to the recent trend in equities. But if we are not, the only trade that currently makes…
  • Where Are My Foreign Assets When I Need Them?

    CV
    17 Sep 2014 | 8:15 am
    How do you show the challenge of the eurozone periphery in one chart? Well, it is difficult but the representation below is a good pick in my view. A structurally negative net foreign asset position is a very tough hurdle to overcome when in a currency union, saddled with poor demographics and need net external demand to boost national income. Think of the periphery as Japan and Germany without(!) the strong net foreign asset position.  These countries seem to have grown old before getting rich and without the ability to devalue in nominal terms, the outlook is not good.   …
  • The Italian Economy Remains Stuck ...

    CV
    15 Sep 2014 | 10:38 am
    Italy has the dubious honor of the being the first eurozone economy to re-enter recession after the decidedly tepid recovery since 2012. This is bad news for an economy struggling with steadily increasing government debt and no real solution on how to pay off its mounting liabilities. What is even worse is that it looks as if the economy is not about to exit its malaise anytime soon. Picture is courtesey of Pantheon Macroeconomics and has also been posted on Twitter.   
  • Weak economic data would test bonds in the periphery

    CV
    7 Aug 2014 | 1:50 am
    Volatility has engulfed the eurozone in the past few weeks, but bond markets remain a relative sea of calm. This could change quickly however, if the economic data in the periphery takes a serious turn for the worse. Given the absence of active balance sheet expansion at the ECB, Q3 PMIs have suddenly taken in critical importance   Picture is courtesey of Pantheon Macroeconomics and has also been posted on Twitter. 
  • Is the Euro Overvalued?

    CV
    16 Jul 2014 | 7:43 am
    Well, yes if you ask Mr. Draghi it is, but not if you look at fundamental long run charts. Looking at both the REER and the trade weighted index, the euro is currently bang on average. Obviously, the ECB would like a weaker currency, but the best way to reach that objective will probably be to do nothing. It is difficult to expect a weaker currency amid a cyclical recovery with strong portfolio inflows and a current account surplus.    ---  Pictures are courtesey of Pantheon Macroeconomics and have also been posted at Twitter. 
 
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    re: The Auditors

  • McKenna At Medium: Two New Columns For the Bull Market Collection

    Francine
    18 Oct 2014 | 4:50 pm
    You may have seen via my LinkedIn page that I’m back at Medium.com. (I posted for three months last year under the “By The Numbers” collection to help kick off the site.) This time I’m part of a group effort, edited by Evan Hanson called “Bull Market”. The team includes former Reuters finance blogger now Fusion editor Felix Salmon, MSNBC commentator Alexis Goldstein, and University of Connecticut law professor and blogger at The Baseline Scenario James Kwak. My first two posts are about taxes—offshore tax avoidance and Amazon’s allergic reaction to…
  • Speaking Engagements/Conferences

    Francine
    18 Oct 2014 | 4:40 am
    I’m on the road visiting universities, attending select conferences and forums and speaking to groups of all kinds. If you would like me to visit your university and your accounting/audit program, please write soon to lock in fall and winter dates. Contact me at fmckenna@mckennapartners.com to schedule a presentation at your university, conference, firm or for a private briefing. Coming Up: November 20-21, 2014, PCAOB Standing Advisory Group open meeting. Attending as media. Washington DC. December 3-4, 2014, Illinois CPA Society’s 2014 Accounting & Auditing Conference, Wednesday,…
  • 18-Year Old Anthony Canalungo Questions Herbalife, And PwC, On Exchange Rates

    Francine
    23 Sep 2014 | 4:55 pm
    Anthony Canalungo ( @Canalungo on Twitter) is an 18 year old college student and young investor that has been following the Herbalife story since 2012. He says he’s been a follower of Benjamin Graham since the age of 15 and describes himself predominantly as a value investor. He’s a member of Leaders Investment Club and is a founding member of a non-profit in his community. Anthony recently wrote a really interesting article about Herbalife’s financials in Venezuela that was posted on a blog called Quoth The Raven. In the post, Anthony raises an interesting issue that I have…
  • More On My Reuters Breakingviews Column: The Andersen Tax Name Grab

    Francine
    8 Sep 2014 | 10:56 am
    News broke on September 2 that a firm, made up of ex-Arthur Andersen tax partners and called Wealth and Tax Advisory Services LLC, bought the Andersen portion of the Arthur Andersen name from what’s left of that firm and will now call itself Andersen Tax. The news, as you would expect, garnered much media attention. It says something—but maybe not what the firm’s partners think— that so many years after the destruction of Arthur Andersen by criminal indictment—twelve years—so many people care. Every major media and trade publication as well as several blogs wrote about it.
  • Auditor Independence: Another Case of Misplaced Loyalty

    Francine
    2 Sep 2014 | 5:33 am
    I wrote a couple of weeks ago about the PwC Director, now partner, who is mixed up in PwC’s fine and sanctions for its lack of independence and objectivity at consulting client Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. PwC consulted with the bank about money laundering allegations, at the request of regulators who were looking for reassurances from PwC that the bank was now complying with the law. The New York Times article about New York Department of Financial Services Superintendent Benjamin Lawsky’s enforcement action against PwC says that “when it was time for Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi to file…
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    The American Prospect

  • Have Republicans Found a Way To Insure Poor People and Still Hate Barack Obama?

    Paul Waldman
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:10 am
    At the risk of being overly optimistic, I think we may have reached a tipping point on Medicaid expansion, where it will soon become completely acceptable for Republican states to accept it, insure their poor citizens, and reap the economic and social benefits despite the taint of Obamacare. I'm not saying there won't be holdouts, because there will be. But something is changing. I'll explain why in a moment, but first, the quick background. (Skip this paragraph if you know all this.) When the Supreme Court decided in 2012 that states could opt out of the expansion of Medicaid included in the…
  • The Seeds of a New Labor Movement

    Harold Meyerson
    21 Oct 2014 | 8:07 pm
    This article is from the Fall 2014 issue of The American Prospect magazine. If anyone has the right to be upbeat about the prospects of the American labor movement, it should be David Rolf, the president of a Seattle-based long-term care local of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU). Between 1995 and 1999, while still in his 20s, Rolf directed a campaign that unionized 74,000 home care workers in Los Angeles. It was the largest single unionization since the United Auto Workers organized Ford in 1941. SEIU then sent him to Seattle, where he has nearly quadrupled SEIU’s Washington…
  • SCOTUS to Texas: Go Forth and Discriminate Against Your Citizens Starting Monday

    Liz Kennedy
    21 Oct 2014 | 1:48 pm
    The Supreme Court said Saturday that, for the first time, it is allowing a voting law to be used for an election even though a federal judge, after conducting a trial, found the law is racially discriminatory in both its intent and its impact, and is an unconstitutional poll tax. It is not only not a good look for the court, it is an abdication of the federal responsibility to protect every American voter from racially discriminatory voter suppression. These continuing voter restrictions are the worst attack on Americans’ voting rights since Reconstruction led to the Jim Crow era. We are in…
  • When Guns Trample Speech, Do We Have a Democracy?

    Harold Meyerson
    21 Oct 2014 | 11:23 am
    (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer) People protest on the campus of Utah State, Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2014, in Logan, Utah. Utah's campus gun laws are in the spotlight after a feminist speaker canceled a speech at Utah State University once she learned the school would allow concealed firearms despite an anonymous threat against her. School officials in Logan were set to go ahead with the event with extra police after consulting with federal and state law enforcement who told them the threat was consistent with ones Anita Sarkeesian receives when she gives speeches elsewhere.  Don’t look now, but I think…
  • Why Liberals Love (and Trust) NPR

    Paul Waldman
    21 Oct 2014 | 11:02 am
    The Pew Research Center has one of its ginormous studies out today, this one about polarization and media use, and as usual it's full of interesting stuff. I want to make a point about news in general and NPR in particular, and then after that, for those who care about these things, I have a methodological point to make about how we measure ideology. One of the distinct things about the Pew results is that conservatives love, love, love Fox News, while no single news outlet has the same kind of near-universal use among liberals. Look, for instance at this chart showing which sources each…
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    Robert Reich

  • Berkeley vs. Big Soda I got a call the other day from a stooge...

    22 Oct 2014 | 7:03 pm
    Berkeley vs. Big Soda I got a call the other day from a stooge of Big Soda who was doing a “push poll” — trying to get me and all my neighbors to vote against Berkeley’s proposed one-cent-per-ounce tax on sugary soft drinks. Big Soda is pulling out all the stops — and the money — to prevent the tax, because Big Soda knows that if it fails in Berkeley it can’t pass anywhere. Yet, just like tobacco, we know a small tax reduces consumption. And just like tobacco, consumption of sugary soft drinks is a huge health problem. One out of three American kids is obese and at risk of…
  • Getting a Grip on Ebola

    20 Oct 2014 | 5:06 pm
    We have to get a grip. Ebola is not a crisis in the United States. One person has died and two...
  • Why Government Spends More Per Pupil at Elite Private Universities than at Public Universities

    13 Oct 2014 | 11:26 am
    Imagine a system of college education supported by high and growing government spending on elite...
  • Why We Allow Big Pharma to Rip Us Off

    5 Oct 2014 | 6:43 pm
    According to a new federal database put online last week, pharmaceutical companies and device makers...
  • Why the Economy is Still Failing Most Americans

    28 Sep 2014 | 2:15 pm
    I was in Seattle, Washington, recently, to congratulate union and community organizers who helped...
 
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    Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

  • Noted for Your Morning Procrastination for October 22, 2014

    J. Bradford DeLong
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:12 am
    Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog For Thursday: Josh Bivens, Brad DeLong, Jeff Madrick, Ylan Mui: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Morning Must-Read: Richard Mayhew: Keeping It Like the Kaiser - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Morning Must-Read: Note That Politico Does Not Label Advertisements as Advertisements - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Morning Must-Read: Charles Steindel: Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Plus: Things to Read on the Morning of October 22, 2014 -…
  • Did You Know That "Irk" Makes a Synonym of Itself in Rot13?: Live from Crows Coffee

    J. Bradford DeLong
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:47 am
    Stolen from http://unfogged.com My quality of life is diminished by the fact that I am not a fluent reader of rot13. Is there a good online drill site?
  • Liveblogging World War II: October 22, 1944: Leyte Gulf: Background

    J. Bradford DeLong
    22 Oct 2014 | 5:00 am
    Battle of Leyte Gulf: Background: On 12 October 1944, the US 3rd Fleet under Admiral Halsey began a series of carrier raids against Formosa and the Ryukyu Islands, with a view to ensuring that the aircraft based there could not intervene in the Leyte landings. The Japanese command therefore put Shō-Gō 2 into action, launching waves of air attacks against 3rd Fleet's carriers. In what Morison refers to as a 'knock-down, drag-out fight between carrier-based and land-based air', the Japanese were routed, losing 600 aircraft in three days, almost their entire air strength in the…
  • For Thursday: Josh Bivens, Brad DeLong, Jeff Madrick, Ylan Mui: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America

    J. Bradford DeLong
    21 Oct 2014 | 2:52 pm
    Over at Equitable Growth:Josh Bivens, Brad DeLong, Jeff Madrick, Ylan Mui: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America: Thursday, October 23, 2014 1:00 - 2: 30 p.m. ET Economic Policy Institute 1333 H St., NW Suite 300 Washington, DC 20005 http://www.epi.org/event/mainstream-economic-thinking-imperils-america/ Advice about what points I should try to hit would be most welcome... DRAFT PRESENTATION SLIDES: On Jeff Madrick: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America J. Bradford DeLong U.C. Berkeley For Delivery: 2014-10-23 Prepared: 2014-10-22 Jeff Madrick's Seven Bad Ideas The…
  • Liveblogging World War II: October 21, 1944: Douglas MacArthur

    J. Bradford DeLong
    21 Oct 2014 | 9:57 am
    Doughlas MacArthur: This is the Voice of Freedom, General MacArthur speaking. People of the Philippines: I have returned. By the grace of Almighty God our forces stand again on Philippine soil – soil consecrated in the blood of our two peoples. We have come, dedicated and committed to the task of destroying every vestige of enemy control over your daily lives, and of restoring, upon a foundation of indestructible strength, the liberties of your people. At my side is your President, Sergio Osmena, worthy successor of that great patriot, Manuel Quezon, with members of his cabinet. The seat of…
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    Calculated Risk

  • Thursday: Unemployment Claims, FHFA House Price Index

    Bill McBride
    22 Oct 2014 | 4:41 pm
    From Kathleen Madigan at the WSJ: Why Rising Rents Haven’t Pumped Up Inflation For the 12 months ended in September, [owners’ equivalent rent] OER is up 2.7%, up from 2.2% a year ago. (Actual rent paid by tenants is up a faster 3.3%.)OER is the big gorilla in the inflation room. It accounts for 24% of the total CPI and 31% of the core. So why isn’t the accelerating OER rate pushing up the core? Because other factors are offsetting the upward push.The biggest drag is the downward pressure on goods prices coming from overseas. ... On the service side, other major categories have seen a…
  • QE Timeline Update

    Bill McBride
    22 Oct 2014 | 1:31 pm
    With QE3 expected to end next week, by request, here is an updated timeline of QE (and Twist operations):• November 25, 2008: Press Release: $100 Billion GSE direct obligations, $500 billion in MBS• December 16, 2008 FOMC Statement: Evaluating benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury Securities• January 28, 2009: FOMC Statement: FOMC Stands Ready to expand program.• March 18, 2009: FOMC Statement: Expand MBS program to $1.25 trillion, buy up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities• March 31, 2010: QE1 purchases were completed at the end of Q1 2010.• August 27, 2010:…
  • Key Measures Show Low Inflation in September

    Bill McBride
    22 Oct 2014 | 10:25 am
    The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% (1.8% annualized rate) in September. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.1% (1.8% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report. Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban…
  • Cost of Living Adjustment: 1.7%, Contribution Base for 2015: $118,500

    Bill McBride
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:55 am
    With the release of the CPI report this morning, we now know the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA), and the contribution base for 2015.Currently CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). Here is a discussion from Social Security on the current calculation (1.7% increase) and a list of previous Cost-of-Living Adjustments. Note: this is not the headline CPI-U.The contribution and benefit base will be $118,500 in 2015.The National Average Wage Index increased to $44,888.16 in 2013, up 1.28% from $44,321.67 in 2012 (used to calculated contribution…
  • AIA: Architecture Billings Index increases in September, "Robust Construction Conditions Ahead"

    Bill McBride
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:01 am
    Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From AIA: Architecture Billings Index Shows Robust Conditions Ahead for Construction IndustryWith all geographic regions and building project sectors showing positive conditions, there continues to be a heightened level of demand for design services signaled in the latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI). As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American…
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    Crooked Timber

  • Adolph Eichmann, Funny Man

    Corey Robin
    21 Oct 2014 | 9:35 pm
    One of the criticisms often made of Hannah Arendt’s account of the Eichmann trial was that she found Eichmann funny. Throughout Eichmann in Jerusalem, Arendt can barely contain her laughter at the inadvertent comedy of the man, which was connected to her claim of his banality and to the ironic tone she adopted throughout the text. Many at the time found her tone flippant and her irony distasteful; since then, her appreciation of Eichmann’s buffoonery has been seen as a sign, to her critics, of her haughty indifference to the suffering he inflicted. Yet, in reading about the…
  • Two Great Parties

    John Holbo
    20 Oct 2014 | 8:07 pm
    I’m reading up on the history of party politics. It’s a nice question why Henry Bolingbroke doesn’t get more credit for theorizing the benefits of Two Great Parties. But, now that I’m tucking into his “Dissertation Upon Parties”, I’m starting to get a notion. Dude did not appreciate that regarding Whigs and Tories as closely related independent causes, yet great, does not make it great to write in closely related, independent clauses. Ahem: How the notions then in vogue began to change, and this spirit to decline, some time after the Restoration; how…
  • Sunday photoblogging: houses

    Chris Bertram
    19 Oct 2014 | 2:35 am
  • Of Collaborators and Careerists

    Corey Robin
    16 Oct 2014 | 10:22 pm
    The announcement of the death of David Greenglass has got me thinking a lot about collaborators. Though much of twentieth-century history could not be written without some discussion of collaborators—from Vichy to Stalinism to the Dirty Wars to McCarthyism—the topic hardly gets a mention in the great texts of political theory. Eichmann in Jerusalem being the sole exception. In my first book on fear, I tried to open a preliminary discussion of the topic. That discussion drew from a wide range of twentieth-century experiences, in Europe, Latin America, the US, and elsewhere, as well…
  • Gobrey, Smith, Hume

    Henry
    14 Oct 2014 | 7:19 pm
    I wanted to note this disagreement between P.E. Gobry and Noah Smith because it allows me to pull out my favorite underappreciated David Hume quote. Gobry: Science is the process through which we derive reliable predictive rules through controlled experimentation. That’s the science that gives us airplanes and flu vaccines and the Internet. But what almost everyone means when he or she says “science” is something different. … Since most people think math and lab coats equal science, people call economics a science, even though almost nothing in economics is actually…
 
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    Dealbreaker

  • Write-Offs: 10.22.14

    Bess Levin
    22 Oct 2014 | 3:44 pm
    $$$ Lloyds Said to Cut 9,000 Jobs Amid Online Banking Shift [Bloomberg] $$$ Betting big on marijuana futures with the Wolf of Weed Street [Men's Journal] $$$ “The financial community has done well, but a lot of people have been left behind,” Larry Fink, chairman and CEO of BlackRock, said at the Robin Hood Investors… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.
  • Goldman Sachs: Sex Discrimination Practices At The Bank Are A Lot More Nuanced Than Ex-Employees Are Making Them Out To Be

    Bess Levin
    22 Oct 2014 | 3:18 pm
    Goldman commissioned its own study re: certain allegations of gender discrimination and the results show there’s a lot that went over Cristina Chen-Oster and Shanna Orlich’s heads. Cristina Chen-Oster, a former vice president at the firm, and Shanna Orlich, a former associate, together have accused Goldman of fostering a “boys’ club” atmosphere where work-related events… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: Cristina Chen-Oster, discrimination, Goldman Sachs, lotta ins lotta outs lotta what-have-yous, overly…
  • Every Sexual Harassment Allegation Against Fired Female HSBC Exec Is Worse Than The Last

    Bess Levin
    22 Oct 2014 | 2:23 pm
    According to lawsuits by two of her former subordinates, during her time as a senior vice-president and head of business development for North America, Eileen Hedges told another one of her subordinates, 27 year-old “Jane Doe,” to: Dress provocatively on the job “…have sex with male HSBC executives and clients at company-sponsored events” Specifically, “have… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: Eileen Hedges, even Lynn Tilton is saying "C'mon lady this is a workplace environment", HSBC, Lawsuits,…
  • Top Treasury Officials Charge Banks With Fortifying Split Times

    Bess Levin
    22 Oct 2014 | 1:54 pm
    Regulators want detailed plans about protecting your free tee-shirts from Russian hackers, too. This summer’s huge cyberattack on JPMorgan Chase and a dozen other financial institutions is accelerating efforts by federal and state authorities to push banks and brokerage firms to close some gaping holes in their defenses. Top officials at the Treasury Department are… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: hackers!, JPMorgan, JPMorgan Corporate Challenge, Russians
  • That’s ‘Professor Dimon,’ Thank You Very Much

    Bess Levin
    22 Oct 2014 | 1:01 pm
    After beating cancer, Jamie Dimon — like many survivors — is looking to give back after a life in banking. The 56-year-old JPMorgan Chase chief executive is considering philanthropy and teaching when he leaves the bank he’s helmed for 10 years, he said during his first public appearance in New York since finishing the cancer… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan, retirement plans
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    Econbrowser

  • Has Wisconsin Employment Growth Really Been Normal over the Last Four Years?

    Menzie Chinn
    22 Oct 2014 | 4:37 pm
    Integration, cointegration and the evaluation of time series data for public policy analysis. As my first economics teacher said, “ya gotta be careful”. Bruce Thompson at Urban Milwaukee’s Data Wonk writes: …the data shows Gov. Walker has had little impact, positive or negative, on how the state grows jobs. Dr. Thompson appeals to data (which is good and a vast improvement over a lot of commentary), and focuses on the ratio of Wisconsin to national nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment (the documentation is unclear, but my graph using NFP looks the same as his, so…
  • Competitiveness, Exchange Rates, Spillovers, the End of Original Sin, and More

    Menzie Chinn
    20 Oct 2014 | 8:59 pm
    Those are the topics covered in the West Coast Workshop on International Finance and Open Economy Macroeconomics, held October 17, 2014, and co-organized by Helen Popper (University of Santa Clara) and Michael Hutchison (UC Santa Cruz). The agenda is here (co-sponsored by SCU, UCSC, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco). The workshop includes papers on that look at stability and international linkages from many angles. The morning sessions include work — such Aizenman, Chinn, and Ito, and Miyamoto and Nguyen — that examine the impact conditions in the major economies have on…
  • Wisconsin Employment: 108.6K below Trend Required to Hit Walker’s 250K Target

    Menzie Chinn
    20 Oct 2014 | 1:26 pm
    The Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development released without fanfare (well, there is no press release I see on the DWD media website as of 3pm CDT today) the last figures to be available before the election. They indicate September private nonfarm employment 108.6 thousands below the trend consistent with the Governor’s target (recommitted to a mere year ago) of 250 thousands net new jobs. Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment seasonally adjusted (red), trend consistent with Walker’s promise (gray), and Wisconsin Economic Outlook forecast, interpolated (green).
  • How will Saudi Arabia respond to lower oil prices?

    James_Hamilton
    19 Oct 2014 | 6:45 am
    Oil prices (along with prices of many other commodities) have fallen dramatically since last summer. Some observers are waiting to see if Saudi Arabia responds with significant cutbacks in production. I say, don’t hold your breath. Source: FRED. When oil demand fell in the 1981-82 recession, the Saudis cut production by 6 million barrels a day in an effort to soften the decline in oil prices. They also cut production in response to lower demand in the 2001 recession and the most recent recession. On the other hand, the kingdom boosted production quickly beginning in August 1990 and…
  • “Exchange rates, monetery policy, and financial policy”

    Menzie Chinn
    13 Oct 2014 | 8:54 am
    In emerging and developing countries. That’s the title of a conference, organized by Gunther Schabl (Leipzig) and Ansgar Belke (Duisberg-Essen), I’m attending in Leipzig. link A lot of the discussion centered on the various implications of the trilemma for non-advanced economies. Here’s my keynote presentation.
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    EconLog: Library of Economics and Liberty

  • Imagining the Proto-Blogosphere

    Bryan Caplan
    23 Oct 2014 | 12:08 am
    (October 23, 2014 12:08 AM, by Bryan Caplan) How is blogging different from traditional media?  My knee-jerk answer is, "It caters to a higher-IQ audience," but that's not really true.  The real story is that blogging lets a million voices bloom - including but hardly limited to voices... (0 COMMENTS)
  • Krugman on Amazon

    Alberto Mingardi
    22 Oct 2014 | 5:01 pm
    (October 22, 2014 05:01 PM, by Alberto Mingardi) What does it mean that Amazon has "too much power"? Paul Krugman has published a vehement column on the online retailer, arguing basically that Amazon enjoys a significant "market power" vis-à-vis publishers. He refers to the feud between Amazon and... (2 COMMENTS)
  • Did the Bush tax rebates actually work?

    Scott Sumner
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:05 am
    (October 22, 2014 06:05 AM, by Scott Sumner) Here's Matt Yglesias on fiscal stimulus: What the country needs is a stimulative process that has the bureaucratic properties of monetary policy, but the heft and comprehensibility of fiscal stimulus. If we had a national sales tax like Japan does,... (6 COMMENTS)
  • Crime and Sheepskins

    Bryan Caplan
    22 Oct 2014 | 12:07 am
    (October 22, 2014 12:07 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Criminals are poorly educated.  About 68% of state inmates dropped out of high school.  Many researchers study whether this effect is causal.  As usual, though, I'm more interested in whether the causal effect stems from signaling.  Education could reduce crime... (8 COMMENTS)
  • Progress on OTC Contraceptives

    David Henderson
    21 Oct 2014 | 12:38 pm
    (October 21, 2014 12:38 PM, by David Henderson) In February 2012, I posted a proposal that the federal government allow contraceptives to be sold over the counter. I wrote: Nevertheless, there is a way that the federal government now cuts access to contraceptives in a way that substantially... (23 COMMENTS)
 
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    Economist's View

  • 'Helicopter Money'

    Mark Thoma
    22 Oct 2014 | 9:17 am
    Everything you ever wanted to know about helicopter money: Helicopter money, by Simon Wren-Lewis, Mainly Macro: Periodically articles appear advocating, or discussing, helicopter money. Here is a simple guide to this strange sounding concept. I go in descending order of importance, covering the essential ground in points 1-7, and dealing with more esoteric matters after that. ...
  • 'Persuasion with Statistics'

    Mark Thoma
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:32 am
    Chris Dillow: Persuasion with statistics: Mark Thoma's point that apparently strong econometric results are often the product of specification mining prompts Lars Syll to remind us that eminent economists have long been wary of what econometrics can achieve. I doubt if many people have ever thought "Crikey, the t stats are high here. That means I must abandon my long-held beliefs about an important matter." More likely, the reaction is to recall Dave Giles' commandments nine and 10. (Apparently?) impressive econometric findings might be good enough to get you published. But…
  • 'Will the Big Banks Ever Clean Up Their Act?'

    Mark Thoma
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:32 am
    I am not convinced that telling the kids to be good or else -- when there's a history of not doing much to enforce the request -- will work: Will the big banks ever clean up their act?, by Mark Thoma: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley delivered a stern warning to the largest banks in a speech earlier this week. Either clean up your illegal and unethical behavior through "cultural change" from within, he said, or be broken into smaller, more manageable pieces. In his conclusion, the warning was direct and explicit: "...if those of you here today as…
  • Links for 10-22-14

    Mark Thoma
    22 Oct 2014 | 12:06 am
    Fly the Derpy Skies - Paul Krugman Forward guidance: Human plans and divine laughter - vox Insurers Retreat From Weather-Related Disasters - NYTimes.com Debate rages on quantitative easing’s effect on inequality - FT.com Buzzfeed linguistics and presidential pronouns revisited - Language Log The dirty effects of mountaintop removal mining - The Washington Post Tax cuts should deliver equity, or efficiency, or both - Frances Woolley Uber is not Profit Maximizing - The Leisure of the Theory Class Women and Economic Development - Tim Taylor Forecasting Is Risky, Especially About the Future -…
  • What Makes Cities Successful?

    Mark Thoma
    21 Oct 2014 | 9:41 am
    This is related to yesterday's post "State 'Income Migration' Claims Are Deeply Flawed": At the intersection of real estate and urban economics: Albert Saiz uses big data to understand real estate dynamics. As a professor in the Department of Urban Studies and Planning and director of MIT’s Center for Real Estate, his work is at the confluence of urban policy and city-making and the factors that drive real estate markets. An urban economist and director of the MIT Urban Economics Lab, Saiz studies the industrial composition of cities with an eye toward understanding…
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    EconTalk

  • Continuing Conversation... Luigi Zingales on Incentives and the Potential Capture of Economists by Special Interests

    Amy Willis
    21 Oct 2014 | 10:09 am
    This week, Russ Roberts welcomed back University of Chicago's Luigi Zingales to talk about a recent essay in which Zingales argues that economists are subject to many of the same sorts of biases as regulators because of the incentives they face. And now we want to hear from you. Use the following questions to reflect on this episode, assign them to students in your class, use them to strike up conversation at your next social gathering. No matter how, we love to hear from you. Check Your Knowledge: 1. What is "regulatory capture," and how can academic economists be similarly "captured," even…
  • Luigi Zingales on Incentives and the Potential Capture of Economists by Special Interests

    Russell Roberts
    20 Oct 2014 | 3:30 am
    Luigi Zingales of the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about Zingales's essay, "Preventing Economists' Capture." Zingales argues that just as regulators become swayed by the implicit incentives of dealing with industry executives, so too with economists who study business: supporting business interests can be financially and professionally rewarding. Zingales outlines the different ways that economists benefit from supporting business interests and ways that economists might work to prevent that influence or at lease be aware of it. Play…
  • Continuing Conversation... Russ Roberts and Mike Munger on How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life

    Amy Willis
    14 Oct 2014 | 6:06 pm
    This week, there was a new sheriff in town! Russ Roberts was the guest in this week's episode, while EconTalk fave Mike Munger stood in as interviewer. The subject was Roberts's new book, How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life. Whether your life changes have already happened or are still pending, we want to hear from you. Use the prompts below to share your thoughts in the comments, use them as a classroom assignment, or use them to spark conversation at a cocktail party. But do let us know your thoughts; we love to hear from you. Check Your Knowledge: 1. How does Roberts distinguish between…
  • Russ Roberts and Mike Munger on How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life

    Russell Roberts
    13 Oct 2014 | 3:30 am
    EconTalk host Russ Roberts is interviewed by long-time EconTalk guest Michael Munger about Russ's new book, How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life: An Unexpected Guide to Human Nature and Happiness. Topics discussed include how economists view human motivation and consumer behavior, the role of conscience and self-interest in acts of kindness, and the costs and benefits of judging others. The conversation closes with a discussion of how Smith can help us understand villains in movies. Play Time: 1:04:23 How do I listen to a podcast? Download Size:29.5 MB Right-click or Option-click, and select…
  • Continuing Conversation... David Autor on the Future of Work and Polanyi's Paradox

    Amy Willis
    8 Oct 2014 | 7:02 am
    Are you concerned that robots will take your job? Could you write out complete instructions for riding a bike? This week, EconTalk host Russ Roberts explored these questions and more with MIT's David Autor. Now we'd like to hear from you. Please use the questions below as prompts for the comments section. Or use them in your offline interactions. Either way, we're anxious to broaden the conversation. We love to hear from you. Check Your Knowledge: 1. What's the difference between Polanyi's paradox and Moravec's paradox, and how does each relate to computerization and automation? 2. What does…
 
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    Environmental Economics

  • As my brain continues to atrophy I seek new publication outlets

    John Whitehead
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:03 am
    Retraction Watch: There’s a new journal in town. Inference’s first issue includes a lengthy review of a laboratory by a tennis instructor, a set of caricatures, and an exchange of emails from 1996 that is “perhaps, less remarkable for what it says than for the fact that it took place at all.” In short, its editors — who “would prefer to remain anonymous” — seem to share a sense of humor with the editors of the Journal of Universal Rejection or the Proceedings of the Natural Institute of Science: Although the editors appeal to experts for advice, Inference is not peer-reviewed.
  • S/he who is without sin ...

    John Whitehead
    22 Oct 2014 | 7:58 am
    Mark Thoma: There's a version of this in econometrics, i.e. you know the model is correct, you are just having trouble finding evidence for it. It goes as follows. You are testing a theory you came up with, but the data are uncooperative and say you are wrong. But instead of accepting that, you tell yourself "My theory is right, I just haven't found the right econometric specification yet. I need to add variables, remove variables, take a log, add an interaction, square a term, do a different correction for misspecification, try a different sample period, etc., etc., etc."…
  • "Do you too think this is funny?"*

    Tim Haab
    20 Oct 2014 | 10:13 am
    *"I have no idea what Bono and the Edge think is funny."
  • That's funny, I've had reviewers call whole papers a joke

    Tim Haab
    20 Oct 2014 | 6:47 am
    I also contacted Penny Goldberg, a professor of economics at Yale University and editor of the American Economic Review, to ask if she could think of any joke, any tiny moment of amusement, one solitary witticism that has passed across her desk. Anything, even if it was rejected. Ms. Goldberg, confirming the reputation of the dismal science in six sad words, wrote back: "I’m afraid nothing comes to mind." via chronicle.com
  • Dubious and Dubiouser*

    John Whitehead
    20 Oct 2014 | 5:46 am
    From the Miscellany Section of Economic Inquiry: We collect contingent valuation data from 524 student survey respondents over a 3-day, 72-hour period. Data analysis of a hypothetical campus referendum focuses on time-of-day effects on willingness to pay for a renewable energy project. We find that subjects responding to the survey during the night-time hours (i.e., between 12 a.m. and 6 a.m.) do not display the law of demand, offering theoretically invalid responses to questions with important policy implications. Results from this research may have serious implications for the…
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    footnoted*

  • GT Technologies warned in August

    Michelle Leder
    10 Oct 2014 | 11:54 am
    There’s been a lot of hand-wringing over the past few days about GT Technologies, which as most people know, filed for bankruptcy earlier this week. In the press release, CEO Tom Guttierez said that “today’s filing does not mean we are going out of business; rather, it provides us with the opportunity to continue to execute our business plan on a stronger footing, maintain operations of our diversified business, and improve our balance sheet.” Investors didn’t quite see things that way. The stock declined over 90% on Monday and has spent the past few days…
  • Comment letter ahead of BofA’s $8M Fine

    Murti Bhattiprolu
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:00 am
    Yesterday, the SEC announced a $7.65m fine for Bank of America Corp. related to internal controls deficiencies and regulatory capital misstatements related to complex securities it bought as part of its acquisition of Merrill Lynch in 2009. What’s surprising is that a comment letter that was made public earlier this month previewed this. In that letter, the SEC said it was concerned with the company’s disclosure about revisions to regulatory capital amounts and ratios in its first-quarter report, which we flagged for footnotedPro subscribers on May 1. We thought it was…
  • An unusually special award at Sigma-Aldrich

    Michelle Leder
    26 Sep 2014 | 6:02 am
    Earlier this week, there was big news in big-pharma when the German pharmaceutical giant Merck KGaA announced plans to buy Sigma-Aldrich Corp. for $17 billion. The $140 a share price represented a 37% premium to Sigma-Aldrich’s closing price. Since that announcement on Monday, Sigma-Aldrich has filed 16 separate documents with the SEC, or somewhere north of 400 pages — from the transcript of the post-announcement call to the Powerpoint presentation to something called employee talking points, which was presumably designed by HR-types to reassure employees that they still have a…
  • Evertec execs line up to enjoy Puerto Rican tax holiday

    Michelle Leder
    18 Sep 2014 | 5:59 am
    You’ve probably heard (or at least read) about the new law in Puerto Rico. Just two weeks ago, the New York Times noted that former “hedge fund honcho” — their words, not ours — Alex Lemond had decamped there to take advantage of a change in the tax code that benefits wealthy newcomers to the island. A more recent development — known by its formal name of Act 77, which was signed into law at the beginning of July — provides additional benefits to income generated from options. (This memo from Deloitte provides a good overview of what’s otherwise…
  • EZCorp’s Doozy $25K/Mo Housing Perk For Chairman

    Murti Bhattiprolu
    28 Aug 2014 | 11:59 am
    Two weeks ago, we wrote about EZCorp Inc. and its generous payouts to its executives — something we’ve coveredextensively in the past — so much so that it has become something of a Frequent Flyer here at footnoted. The pixels on that post had barely set when tthe operator of pawnshops filed another doozy of a filing. The company, which announced the appointment of Stuart Grimshaw, the CEO of Australian financial firm Queensland Ltd., as its executive chairman on Aug. 13 waited until the following day to include the basket full of goodies it was offering Grimshaw to take the…
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    HBR Blog Network - Harvard Business Review » Umair Haque

  • 3 Terrible Strategies for Companies Seeking Growth

    Umair Haque
    6 Oct 2014 | 6:00 am
    Some call it a depression. Some call it a never-ending recession. Some call it a disconnect or a decoupling. Some call it a not-quite recovery. Here’s the truth. Econ doesn’t have a word for whatever we’re in…because whatever we’re in flouts the so-called laws of economics. Quarterly results look great; job growth is “up;” and financial markets are ebullient. So why are so many still worse off than they were before? Why hasn’t all this “growth” actually translated into a real feeling of prosperity? And – as so many CEOs would like to know – is there any way to make…
  • Apple Is More Like a Band than a Company

    Umair Haque
    25 Sep 2014 | 5:00 am
    You’d think by now more companies would have learned. The tech industry still churns out beige boxes. The fashion industry, misshaped sack-shaped objects it calls “clothing” that make adult humans look suspiciously like overgrown toddlers. The food industry…who knows what’s really in the preservative-flavored genetically mutated stuff that’s labeled “food”? All the endless stuff the developed world is drowning in — that we’re melting down the planet to produce — is, for the most part, as unexciting as it is unoriginal as it is uninspired as it is…
  • Our Economic Malaise Is Fueling Political Extremism

    Umair Haque
    5 Jun 2014 | 12:00 pm
    The head of the fourth biggest and fastest rising political party in the world’s second most powerful economy is a racist. An aide to the Prime Minister of one of the world’s most promising societies is caught on camera kicking a protestor to the ground. The world’s largest democracy proudly elects a man who rode a wave of religious extremism. The head of yet another is a man whose calls for ethnic purity are becoming more strident. And that’s leaving out the rise of extremist parties in Greece, the U.S., France, and elsewhere. What’s going on here? Here’s my…
  • Can You Be Too Rich?

    Umair Haque
    12 May 2014 | 6:00 am
    Is there such a thing as too rich? Like most reasonable people, I agree whole-heartedly that people who accomplish greater, worthier, nobler things should be rewarded more than those who don’t. I’m not the World’s Last Communist, shaking his fist atop Karl Marx’s grave at the very idea of riches. So. Perhaps I’ve asked an absurd question. Perhaps there’s no such thing as too rich — anywhere, ever. But try this thought experiment: Imagine that there’s a single person in the economy who is so rich he’s worth what everyone else is, combined. If there were such a person, he’d…
  • 5 Dirty Secrets About the U.S. Economy

    Umair Haque
    2 May 2014 | 9:00 am
    If there’s one thing I hate these days, it’s discussing the U.S. economy. Will raising wages by seventeen cents destroy humanity? Will edible deodorant add 0.000007 percent to GDP? If we resurrected giant man-eating dinosaurs, could we use them to keep our warehouse pickers in line? Isn’t it awesome when the Dow hits a record high (but everything else flatlines or shrinks)? I feel like I’m listening to a debate on the noble merits of true love between the Real Housewives and a bunch of broseph PUAs. By my count, there are five dirty secrets about the economy we’re not supposed to…
 
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    Free exchange

  • A market unto itself

    S.R., C.C.W. | SHANGHAI, HONG KONG
    21 Oct 2014 | 4:58 am
    AMID the sell-off in global equities over the past month, one market has made for an unlikely safe haven. While American, European and Japanese stock indices have fallen by roughly 5-9% since late September, Chinese stocks have been flat. For a market that often resembles a casino, looking to Chinese stocks for stability might seem a bizarre strategy. But there is one big factor to recommend China as a hedge against other markets: low correlations. That is, stockmarkets elsewhere in the world have little influence on China, and China’s stockmarket, in turn, has little influence on the rest…
  • Breaking the rules

    R.A. | LONDON
    21 Oct 2014 | 3:48 am
    AS UNPLEASANT as global economic conditions look just now we can at least be thankful that things aren't anywhere near as bad as they were in 2009, to say nothing of 1931. Neither are those sorts of nasty scenarios a risk. Right?There are lots of reasons to think the world will keep trucking along in coming years as it has over the last two. Yet the risk of a new and painful downturn, though still small, is growing. That growing risk is due to the surprising and disconcerting re-emergence of monetary phenomena that haven't really been seen since the gold standard of the 1930s.It is easy…
  • Big, bad Amazon

    R.A. | LONDON
    20 Oct 2014 | 1:19 pm
    LAST week, the Nobel prize in economics was awarded to Jean Tirole (see this week's Free exchange column) for his work examining the difficulties in regulating firms with substantial market power. Mr Tirole's research is as relevant as ever, thanks to growing concern over the weight tech titans are throwing around in their corners of the economy. Paul Krugman does not mince words in summing up a widespread view of one particular internet behemoth:Amazon.com, the giant online retailer, has too much power, and it uses that power in ways that hurt America.The context is an ongoing dispute…
  • The great unbundling

    Economist.com
    20 Oct 2014 | 11:02 am
    THIS week our correspondents discuss deflation, the TV business and the politics of wages
  • Poverty elucidation day

    The Economist
    20 Oct 2014 | 8:44 am
    FRIDAY October 17th was China’s first official “Poverty Alleviation Day”, an annual convocation of “forums and fundraisers”, designed to rally efforts to combat deprivation. Of course, thanks to China’s rapid economic progress, the country already alleviates a lot of poverty each day: last year the number of rural poor fell by 16.5m or over 45,000 people per day. But that still left 82.49m people stuck in rural squalor at the end of 2013, according to official statistics.Some places in China are worse off than they look. Their “lavish city buildings” disguise impoverished…
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    Greg Mankiw's Blog

  • Charles Murray on Ayn Rand

    Greg Mankiw
    19 Oct 2014 | 6:00 am
    A great and balanced essay.  Thanks to Alex Tabarrok for the pointer.
  • Head Section Leader in Ec 10

    Greg Mankiw
    15 Oct 2014 | 7:42 am
    Love teaching introductory economics?  Want to live in the Boston area?  Well, then, I have a job for you.
  • Mean Comments

    Greg Mankiw
    15 Oct 2014 | 4:50 am
  • Inequality and Parenting

    Greg Mankiw
    14 Oct 2014 | 12:48 pm
    Click on graphic to enlarge. Source.
  • Congrats!

    Greg Mankiw
    10 Oct 2014 | 5:27 am
    Congratulations to the recipients of the 2014 Economist Educators Best in Class Teaching Award. These three were chosen by the Board of the National Economics Teaching Association (NETA) from numerous submissions. Prizes are provided by Cengage Learning. 1st Place       Michael Enz, Roanoke College                 Self Grading 2nd Place       Sherri Wall, University of…
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    Hedge fund

  • Best hedge fund

    Veryan Allen
    12 Oct 2014 | 11:08 am
    I just visited the world's best hedge fund. Client performance needs mean I must do due diligence at all top SKILL BASED managers. I define "top" by risk adjusted returns not AUM and avoid asset class dependent funds. Too risky and unsuitable for institutions and individuals. Steep losses and high volatility are what market "averages" deliver every few years.YOUR money is too important to be risked on any asset class. I prefer talent that delivers INDEPENDENTLY of market direction. Though rare, skill can be detected with thorough analysis. For asset classes, history isn't forward looking.
  • Active or passive

    Veryan Allen
    9 Oct 2014 | 4:58 pm
    Active or passive? Index funds are just unskilled low frequency trading strategies with horrific drawdowns and abysmal risk adjusted returns. Active is the only option in the REAL world because "passive" funds track active decisions of index construction firms. Should you risk your life savings on lists of stocks or hard working talent that actually earns its fees? Name ANY business where passive worked in the long term.Choosing WHICH index is an active decision requiring skill. Prudent men invest in skill. If you think the best stock pickers work at Standard and Poor's, invest…
  • Low cost or low risk?

    Veryan Allen
    8 Oct 2014 | 6:47 am
    The market is efficient, apparently so security analysis is pointless? According to Jack Bogle, hedge fund managers like Warren Buffett and Jim Simons are just lucky monkeys. Bogle claims to be able to predict the long term future and urges you to gamble on his clairvoyance. Embrace the average as there is no skill! Expense ratios must be judged against net risk-adjusted returns and index funds have poor performance compared to skill strategies. Name any industry where the "average" succeeds.Jack Bogle steals investors' precious time waiting years for unanalyzed lists of stocks to rise.
  • Arbitrage hedge fund

    Veryan Allen
    7 Oct 2014 | 7:22 am
    Arbitrage? There's more DUMB MONEY invested in the markets than ever before. So there are MORE opportunities for alpha. Economics professors claim there is no such thing as arbitrage as it supposedly would be copied and eliminated! They are wrong. If you have the work ethic, intelligence and resources there are many arbitrages on Wall Street. A common metaphor is that if a $100 bill is dropped in the street it would immediately be picked up therefore no arbitrage can persist. But what if YOU are the person that finds it? Someone will. What if you specialize in walking the streets 24/7/365…
  • Hedge fund replication

    Veryan Allen
    1 Oct 2014 | 7:29 am
    Hedge fund replication is the dumbest idea since "portable alpha" or "130/30". You can buy a Rolex "clone" anywhere here in Beijing but there's a huge difference between them and the PERFORMANCE of a genuine Rolex. Same with clones attempting to mimic hedge funds. In any industry there are always cheap inferior knock-offs. There's no threat to good hedge funds who will massively outperform "copies". Shame on any investor that breaches fiduciary duty by allocating to garbage that's GUARANTEED to do poorly. Perhaps AVERAGE hedge funds can be cloned but who wants to invest in "average" managers?
 
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    Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up

  • Don't Blame IBM. Blame Wall Street

    Jeff Matthews
    20 Oct 2014 | 5:31 am
     Well the biggest stock-market levitation act since HP under Mark Hurd is going the way of all levitation acts: IBM is throwing in the towel on its $20 EPS "roadmap" (reportedly mocked as "roadkill" in some internal IBM quarters) and admitting what anybody with a calculator and the IBM 10Ks before them has understood for some time--it is exceedingly difficult to grow earnings regularly, not to mention with to-the-penny precision, when your sales are falling, hard, nearly everywhere, quarter after quarter...no matter how many people you lay off, how many "one-time" charges you take,…
  • Berkshire Hathaway: Wholesaler of Death?

    Jeff Matthews
    5 Sep 2014 | 1:41 pm
     Now that we have your attention with that admittedly provocative title, we are going to kill two birds with one stone here. Bird One is the fact that we haven’t posted anything in two months, mainly because whatever odd silliness visible in the darker corners of Wall Street seems irrelevant in a world where Vladimir Putin can invade his neighbors, take territory and shoot passenger planes from the sky while the civilized world sputters about such things not being fit for 21stCentury-type behavior before moving onto actual 21st Century-type behavior like Tweeting about…
  • Okay FINRA, Who Had The Call From The FHFA?

    Jeff Matthews
    11 Jul 2014 | 6:38 am
     Last night at 4:05 PM E.S.T. the news hit Bloomberg that the Federal Housing Financing Agency was proposing an astoundingly, stupidly strict set of standards for private mortgage insurers who do business with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the net effect of which would be to reduce the availability of credit for home buyers at the very time that credit is needed to keep our economic recovery going. We are not here to explain the issue, only to point out to FINRA, the self-policing body in charge of sniffing out strange behavior in the public markets, the enormous--nay,…
  • Life in Wartime, or, One More Reason Why Companies Leave America

    Jeff Matthews
    17 Jun 2014 | 11:47 am
     These are the headlines on my Bloomberg for Annie's, the organic mac and cheese maker whose shares have fallen from unsustainable heights as the difficulties of running a public company while trying to meet the impatient quarterly targets of impatient quarterly-minded investors finally overcame the euphoria of a company that seemed to be in the right place at the right time. And this is one more reason why companies are leaving America. For the record, I like the new CFO (who helped flag the filing deficiencies) and would not bet against the company mending its ways. Nor…
  • Berkshire Hathaway: Beyond Buffett

    Jeff Matthews
    24 May 2014 | 11:00 am
    If this is failure, I want more of it.”—Charlie Munger “The only succession for Ajit Jain is reincarnation.”—Warren BuffettOmaha, Nebraska, May 3, 2014.It’s one year later, and I’m driving in pre-dawn darkness through downtown Omaha to the 2014 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, which, up until about a week ago, was looking like another cakewalk for Warren Buffett. After all, Berkshire’s net worth increased 18% in 2013, representing a staggering $34 billion jump in value.  And while, as some wet-blanket observers have pointed out, Berkshire’s 18% gain paled in…
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    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

  • Saxo Bank CIO Jakobsen Predicts Another "Shock Drop" in Markets; Addicted to Cheap Money

    22 Oct 2014 | 9:52 am
    Inquiring minds are tuned into the Saxo Bank's 4th Trading Debate on Volatility and Performance. Another "Shock Drop" in MarketsSaxo Bank CIO Steen Jakobsen says Another 'Shock Drop' is Coming and it's Coming SoonSteen takes the view that central bank policy is creating a 'fantasy land' for investors and he points out that the recent 'day dive' in markets was a closer reflection of reality.Steen outlines his suggestions for trading ahead of another dip in mid November with targets for the S&P 500 around 1810 and the Dax at 8000 - 7800.China Replicates West's Mistakes Says Trading…
  • US Airdrops Load of Weapons Into Hands of ISIS

    22 Oct 2014 | 9:17 am
    In yet another embarrassing moment for the Obama administration, Isis Claims it has US Airdrop of Weapons. A US airdrop of arms to besieged Kurds in Kobani appears to have missed its target and ended up in the hands of Islamic State (Isis) militants.Video footage released by Isis shows what appears to be one of its fighters for in desert scrubland with a stack of boxes attached to a parachute. The boxes are opened to show an array of weapons, some rusty, some new. A canister is broken out to reveal a hand grenade.The Pentagon said it was investigating the claim but admitted that one of its…
  • McDonald's Vows Fresh Thinking After Net Income Declines 30%; Mish Offers Some Advice

    21 Oct 2014 | 6:34 pm
    A 30% net income decline for McDonald's is quite startling to most. I wonder why such a decline took so long.In response to that pathetic performance, McDonald’s Vows Fresh Thinking. McDonald’s Corp. outlined plans for what it called fundamental changes to its business as it reported one of its worst quarterly profit declines in years, driven by problems in nearly every major part of its business.The 30% decline in net income for the period ended Sept. 30 was the latest in a string of disappointing results for the world’s largest restaurant chain. It is struggling with weak sales in…
  • James Grant Conference Video: Inflation Expectations, Growth, Policy Problems; Europe Has Become Japan

    21 Oct 2014 | 11:15 am
    Here's an interesting video from the recent James Grant Conference. The title of this year's conference is Investing Opportunistically, Separating the Beta from the Alpha. The first five minutes are introductions and attendee notes you may wish to skip over. The opening speech was by Marc Seidner, CFA at GMO, on inflation expectations. Note: you may have to click on the play arrow twice to start the video. Last year at this time a majority thought tightening was inevitable and bonds were attractively priced for those who thought otherwise now, tightening in Europe and Japan is totally priced…
  • M&A Deals Fail At Highest Rate Since 2008

    20 Oct 2014 | 2:23 pm
    In yet another potential market topping sign, M&A Deals Fail At Highest Rate Since 2008The value of deals that fail to complete has reached its highest level since 2008, in the latest sign that the best year for mergers and acquisitions since the financial crisis will also feature a number of high-profile failures.Three large deals collapsed last week, adding to the list of wrecked deals and coinciding with a sharp jump in equity market volatility that sapped confidence in stocks and put a chill on the market for initial public offerings.The biggest blow to dealmaking prospects came as US…
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    Overcoming Bias

  • Thrown’s Kit’s Self-Deception

    Robin Hanson
    20 Oct 2014 | 5:15 pm
    Back in July 2010 Kerry Howley published a nice New York Times Magazine article on the tensions between my wife and I resulting from my choice to do cryonics. The very next month, August 2010, is the date when, in Howley’s new and already-celebrated book Thrown, her alter-ego Kit first falls in love with MMA fighting: Not until my ride home, as I began to settle back into my bones and feel the limiting contours of perception close back in like the nursery curtains that stifled the views of my youth, did it occur to me that I had, for the first time in my life, found a way out of this, my…
  • Em Software Results

    Robin Hanson
    17 Oct 2014 | 10:25 am
    After requesting your help, I should tell you what it added up to. The following is an excerpt from my book draft, illustrated by this diagram: In our world, the cost of computing hardware has been falling rapidly for decades. This fall has forced most computer projects to be short term, so that products can be used before they are made obsolete. The increasing quantity of software purchased has also led to larger software projects, which involve more engineers. This has shifted the emphasis toward more communication and negotiation, and also more modularity and standardization in software…
  • History Vs. Future

    Robin Hanson
    14 Oct 2014 | 12:25 pm
    I’ve long puzzled over differing interest in history and the future, in both fiction and non-fiction. And I’ve finally collected some numbers. Amazon.com says it has 37 million books on offer. Here are the fraction of those books it says are in these named categories: Note that Amazon has no “future studies” category, so I listed the two future-themed categories I found. Here are the fraction of books associated with related keyword phrases: Why the far larger interest in real history, relative to all the other combinations of future/history and real/fictional?
  • Why Not Egg Futures?

    Robin Hanson
    11 Oct 2014 | 11:00 am
    Older women often find themselves too old to have kids, and regretting it. Such women would have gained by freezing some eggs when they were younger. But when younger, they didn’t think they’d ever want kids, or thought the issue could wait. Such women might be helped by an egg futures business, paid to take on this risk for them. Such a business could buy eggs from women when young, freeze them, and sell them back to these same women when old. Of course, to compensate for the wait and risk that the women wouldn’t want eggs later, this business would have to sell…
  • Em Software Engineering Bleg

    Robin Hanson
    8 Oct 2014 | 1:20 pm
    Many software engineers read this blog, and I’d love to include a section on software engineering in my book on ems. But as my software engineering expertise is limited, I ask you, dear software engineer readers, for help. “Ems” are future brain emulations. I’m writing a book on em social implications. Ems would substitute for human workers, and once ems were common ems would do almost all work, including software engineering. What I seek are reasonable guesses on the tools and patterns of work of em software engineers – how their tools and work patterns would differ from those…
 
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Sailing between the Scylla of hyping of sexy research and the Charybdis of reflexive skepticism

    Andrew
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:56 am
    Recently I had a disagreement with Larry Bartels which I think is worth sharing with you. Larry and I took opposite positions on the hot topic of science criticism. To put things in a positive way, Larry was writing about some interesting recent research which I then constructively criticized. To be more negative, Larry was hyping some sexy research and I was engaging in mindless criticism. The balance between promotion and criticism is always worth discussing, but particularly so in this case because of two factors: 1. The research in question is on the borderline. The conclusions in…
  • Try a spaghetti plot

    Andrew
    21 Oct 2014 | 6:18 am
    Joe Simmons writes: I asked MTurk NFL fans to consider an NFL game in which the favorite was expected to beat the underdog by 7 points in a full-length game. I elicited their beliefs about sample size in a few different ways (materials .pdf; data .xls). Some were asked to give the probability that the better team would be winning, losing, or tied after 1, 2, 3, and 4 quarters. If you look at the average win probabilities, their judgments look smart. But this graph is super misleading, because the fact that the average prediction is wise masks the fact that the average person is not. Of the…
  • Three ways to present a probability forecast, and I only like one of them

    Andrew
    20 Oct 2014 | 7:12 am
    To the nearest 10%: To the nearest 1%: To the nearest 0.1%: I think the National Weather Service knows what they’re doing on this one. The post Three ways to present a probability forecast, and I only like one of them appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • On deck this week

    Andrew
    20 Oct 2014 | 6:00 am
    Mon: Three ways to present a probability forecast, and I only like one of them Tues: Try a spaghetti plot Wed: I ain’t got no watch and you keep asking me what time it is Thurs: Some questions from our Ph.D. statistics qualifying exam Fri: Solution to the helicopter design problem Sat: Solution to the problem on the distribution of p-values Sun: Solution to the sample-allocation problem The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • “Your Paper Makes SSRN Top Ten List”

    Andrew
    19 Oct 2014 | 6:54 am
    I received the following email from the Social Science Research Network, which is a (legitimate) preprint server for research papers: Dear Andrew Gelman: Your paper, “WHY HIGH-ORDER POLYNOMIALS SHOULD NOT BE USED IN REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY DESIGNS”, was recently listed on SSRN’s Top Ten download list for: PSN: Econometrics, Polimetrics, & Statistics (Topic) and Political Methods: Quantitative Methods eJournal. As of 02 September 2014, your paper has been downloaded 17 times. You may view the abstract and download statistics at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2486395. Top Ten…
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    Streetsblog New York City

  • NYC: Alleged Drunk Driver Crashes, Flips Parked Car Onto Sunnyside Sidewalk

    Stephen Miller
    22 Oct 2014 | 2:13 pm
    An allegedly drunk driver crashed into six parked cars last night in Sunnyside, flipping one of them onto the sidewalk. Photo: Angus Grieve-Smith/Twitter Last night, shortly after midnight, a driver crashed into six parked cars in Woodside, Queens, flipping one of the vehicles onto the sidewalk. His vehicle thrust to the opposite sidewalk on 51st Street between Skillman and 39th Avenues, the driver then revved the engine in an unsuccessful attempt to flee before exiting the vehicle. Soon after, NYPD arrested him for drunk driving. At 12:46 a.m., police charged 25-year-old Rhys Katwaru of…
  • NYC: The Growing Political Muscle of the Campaign for a Verrazano Bike/Ped Path

    Ben Fried
    22 Oct 2014 | 11:47 am
    Photo: Harbor Ring Committee This Saturday, close to 100 people gathered at the Alice Austen House on the North Shore of Staten Island to demand a walking and biking path across the Verrazano Bridge. And in a sign of the campaign’s growing political potency, several elected officials came out to announce their support for the idea, including Assembly Member Michael Cusick, State Senator Marty Golden, and City Council Member Vincent Gentile. The bridge path now has the endorsement of nearly every local elected official on each side of the Verrazano. The main question left is whether…
  • NYC: DA Cy Vance: $250 Fine for Motorist Accused of Deliberately Striking Cyclist

    Brad Aaron
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:30 am
    Manhattan DA Cy Vance dropped assault charges against Jose Henriquez, a hit-and-run driver accused of intentionally striking a cyclist with an SUV. Henriquez was allowed to plead to leaving the scene and was fined $250. Vance photo: Brad Aaron. Henriquez photo via Facebook Manhattan District Attorney Cy Vance dropped assault charges against a hit-and-run driver accused of intentionally ramming a cyclist with an SUV, allowing the defendant to plead guilty to leaving the scene and pay a small fine, according to court documents and the victim’s attorney, Steve Vaccaro. Vaccaro says the…
  • NYC: Today’s Headlines

    Stephen Miller
    22 Oct 2014 | 5:59 am
    Queens Council Members Back Woodhaven BRT: More Coverage From NY1, AMNY, TL Manhattan CB 7 Members See Car-Free Central Park as a Way to Ease Bike/Ped Conflicts (DNA) Meanwhile, the Only Solution in the New York Post Is to Demonize Cyclists (1, 2) Hit-and-Run Driver Injures 93-Year-Old Man; Arrested for DWI and Suspended License (NY1) Police Arrest Wrong-Way Dollar Van Driver After He Injures Officers (Bklyn Daily) Cy Vance: Mechanical Problem to Blame for Times Square Tour Bus That Jumped Curb (NY1, WCBS) Harlem Residents Worried About Dangerous Traffic, Lack of Enforcement on 125th…
  • NYC: DiNapoli: If Cuomo Borrows More for the MTA, Get Ready for Fat Fare Hikes

    Stephen Miller
    21 Oct 2014 | 2:56 pm
    Without a commitment from the state to close the $15.2 billion gap in the MTA’s capital program, the cost of a MetroCard is likely to spike as the MTA adds to its cumbersome debt load, according to a new report from Comptroller Tom DiNapoli [PDF]. The warning comes as Governor Andrew Cuomo and the legislature begin the very early stages of negotiations over funding the capital plan, which maintains, upgrades, and expands the transit system. MTA debt has skyrocketed and without new revenue, it will consume even more of the agency’s budget. Does Cuomo care? Photo: MTA/Flickr By some…
 
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    The Big Picture

  • Your Brain In Numbers

    Barry Ritholtz
    22 Oct 2014 | 5:30 pm
    What gives you headaches? Is your brain shrinking? Find out the answers and much more, right here!
  • 10 Wednesday PM Reads

    Barry Ritholtz
    22 Oct 2014 | 2:30 pm
    My afternoon train reads: • The world’s best market timers: the Federal Reserve (Marketwatch) • Hedge Funds Take Another Hit as Spinoff Stocks Fizzle (WSJ) see also Misery Widespread at Hedge Funds (WSJ) • Swedroe: Valuations And Asset Allocation (ETF.com) • Yes, Market Volatility Is a Job-Killer (Real Time Economics) • New York Fed Caught Sight of London Whale and Let Him Go (Bloomberg View) see also New York Fed Faulted in ‘London Whale’ Case (WSJ) • Bloomberg Drops Huge Cash, Poaches Business Insider’s Joe Weisenthal To Host New TV Show (Business Insider)…
  • Asset Classes: Real 10-Year Expected Return

    Barry Ritholtz
    22 Oct 2014 | 1:00 pm
    Source: Research Affiliates   Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates writes: In a world of low bond yields and slow economic growth, historically realized 5-6% real (7-8% nominal) asset class returns may be unrealistic expectations for the future. In other words, assets with above-average valuations may not deliver the sort of returns people came to expect before the credit crisis. What’s an investor to do? Thankfully, we have a chart.   Continues here
  • You Are Worrying About the Wrong Things

    Barry Ritholtz
    22 Oct 2014 | 7:30 am
    No, you are not going to die from Ebola. To quote a wag on Twitter, “More Americans have been married to Kim Kardashian than have died from Ebola.” But the latest scare does have a small positive: It provides me with yet another opportunity to lecture you about how incredibly dumb your lizard brain is. (It’s also an opportunity to castigate the media for turning a minuscule threat into a full-blown conflagration, but that’s shooting fish in a barrel). How serious is the danger of Ebola infection? Despite the nonstop media coverage, it’s important to note that this…
  • 10 Wednesday AM Reads

    Barry Ritholtz
    22 Oct 2014 | 5:30 am
    My morning train reads: • U.S. Stocks Surge; Nasdaq Up 2.4% (WSJ) but see Hong Kong Stocks Defy Protests to Post World’s Best Gain (Bloomberg) • Investors Hiring: Mathematicians and Artists Need Apply (Institutional Investor) • Cassidy: Is the Chinese Economy About to Fall Off a Cliff? (New Yorker) see also The Top 10 U.S. States Where Chinese Are Investing in Real Estate (Real Time Economics) • A Skeptic’s View of Today’s Investing Religions (AI-CIO) • 74 Quotes From The Intelligent Investor, Revised Edition (Arbor Investment Planner)   Continues here    
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    The Epicurean Dealmaker

  • Sunday Reading from the Archives

    19 Oct 2014 | 10:20 am
    Edward Hopper, Early Sunday Morning, 1930“Then I need say no more,” said Celeborn. “But do not despise the lore that has come down from distant years; for oft it may chance that old wives keep in memory word of things that once were needful for the wise to know.”— J.R.R. Tolkein, The Fellowship of the RingPeriodically, O Dearly Beloved, I take a leisurely stroll through the carefully stacked and organized pixels of my back catalogue, clicking from link to link in a solipsistic journey of rediscovery. Occasionally such wanderings illuminate a consistent intellectual preoccupation of…
  • The Privy Counselor

    11 Oct 2014 | 1:19 pm
    Diego Velasquez, Portrait of Pedro de Barberana, 1631No! I am not Prince Hamlet, nor was meant to be; Am an attendant lord, one that will do To swell a progress, start a scene or two, Advise the prince; no doubt, an easy tool, Deferential, glad to be of use,Politic, cautious, and meticulous; Full of high sentence, but a bit obtuse; At times, indeed, almost ridiculous— Almost, at times, the Fool.— T.S. Eliot, “The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock”So The Blackstone Group decided yesterday to spin off its advisory business and merge it with Paul Taubman’s advisory “kiosk.” This is…
  • Farewell, Ghafla Distraction

    3 Oct 2014 | 4:54 pm
    “Aha! Now we see the violence inherent in the system!”— Monty Python and the Holy GrailYes, it’s true: I’ve left Twitter.No special reason. All of a part with my reasons for terminating this blog,1 which boil down to being tired of it. I no longer get enough out of the service to merit the near constant immersion and distraction which it seems to elicit from me. I have better uses for my time. And the more substantive readings and links of interest which used to attract me I have sourced otherwise through RSS feeds, so I no longer need to wade through reams of banal tweets on…
  • TED’s All Time Greatest Hits

    29 Sep 2014 | 7:44 pm
    The person who experiences greatness must have a feeling for the myth he is in. He must reflect what is projected upon him. And he must have a strong sense of the sardonic. This is what uncouples him from belief in his own pretensions. The sardonic is all that permits him to move within himself. Without this quality, even occasional greatness will destroy a man.— Frank Herbert, DuneI have used the preceding epigraph before, as some of you Delightful Readers may recall. It is a versatile and thought-provoking sentiment. Like many quotes and excerpts from Dune, which I contend is one of the…
  • Oop. Time, She’s Up

    20 Sep 2014 | 3:52 pm
    “I am old, Gandalf. I don’t look it, but I am beginning to feel it in my heart of hearts. Well-preserved indeed! Why, I feel all thin, sort of stretched, if you know what I mean: like butter that has been scraped over too much bread. That can’t be right. I need a change, or something.”― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Lord of the RingsWhen I launched this blog seven and three-quarters years ago, O Dearly Beloved, my first post incorporated the following mission statement:I have started this blog to comment on what I consider to be a fascinating part of the global economy: the global market for…
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    OUPblog

  • How much are nurses worth?

    Julie Fergus
    22 Oct 2014 | 7:30 am
    If you ask many people about nurses, they will tell you how caring and kind nurses are. The word “angel” might even appear. Nursing consistently tops the annual Gallup poll comparing the ethics and honesty of different professions. But it’s worth exploring the extent to which society really values nursing. In recent decades, a global nursing shortage has often meant too few nurses to fill open positions, woefully inadequate nurse staffing levels, and not enough funds for nursing education. Many nurses have migrated across the globe, easing shortages in developed nations but exacerbating…
  • A Study in Brown and in a Brown Study, Part 3

    Alice
    22 Oct 2014 | 5:30 am
    If you have read the previous parts of this “study,” you may remember that brown is defined as a color between orange and black, but lexicographical sources often abstain from definitions and refer to the color of familiar objects. They say that brown is the color of mud, dirt, coffee, chocolate, hazel, or chestnut. Sometimes compounds like golden-brown turn up. Despite such differences, most people associate brown with a dark hue. The standard Latin gloss of Engl. brown is fuscus “dark” (compare the verb obfuscate). In using descriptive adjectives for “brown,” language follows…
  • What we’ve learned and what we missed

    Barney Cox
    22 Oct 2014 | 3:30 am
    A ten-year anniversary seems an opportune time to take stock. Much has been said already about Oxford Scholarship Online (OSO) as it moves into its second decade, and let’s cast the net a bit wider and focus not on OSO, per se, but on what the academic publishing industry has gotten right and what we’ve missed since OSO was in its infancy. The biggest change, of which OSO has been a central component at Oxford University Press, has of course been the transition from a print-centric, manufacturing-based industry to a print-and-online, service-oriented industry. Drawing on that general…
  • Marital transfers and the welfare of women

    DanP
    22 Oct 2014 | 1:30 am
    Throughout history and across cultures, marriage has often been accompanied by substantial exchange of wealth. However, the practice has mostly died out in western societies, which is perhaps why the meanings of these marital transfers are often not well understood. In anthropological terms, a dowry can be seen as a form of pre-mortem bequest to the bride from her parents, while bride-price or groom-price is a transaction between the kin of the groom and the kin of the bride. The former is an intergenerational transfer within the bride’s family, even though the groom and his family can also…
  • In defence of horror

    Kirsty
    22 Oct 2014 | 12:30 am
    A human eyeball shoots out of its socket, and rolls into a gutter. A child returns from the dead and tears the beating heart from his tormentor’s chest. A young man has horrifying visions of his mother’s decomposing corpse. A baby is ripped from its living mother’s womb. A mother tears her son to pieces, and parades around with his head on a stick… These are scenes from the notorious, banned ‘video nasty’ films Eaten Alive, Zombie Flesh Eaters, I Spit on Your Grave, Anthropophagous: The Beast, and Cannibal Holocaust. Well, no. They could be – but they’re not. All…
 
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    Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

  • Some Links

    Don Boudreaux
    22 Oct 2014 | 7:41 pm
    (Don Boudreaux) Over at EconLog, Alberto Mingardi weighs in on Paul Krugman’s strange if unsurprising hostility toward Amazon. In my latest column in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review I remember two people who played especially important roles in my life: Michelle Bailliet and Leonard Liggio.  A slice: Also great was Leonard Liggio, a man who did more than any other individual over the past half-century to build the libertarian intellectual movement. A lifelong bachelor, Leonard attended seemingly every significant conference, anywhere on Earth, at which ideas related to free markets and…
  • Krugman and Amazon and Antitrust

    Don Boudreaux
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:04 am
    (Don Boudreaux) Paul Krugman’s recent New York Times column on Amazon’s alleged market power reads like countless pro-antitrust articles, essays, and court opinions from the mid-20th century.  Here’s the thrust of the dominant narrative from many decades ago about antitrust : A currently big, successful, and well-known company that admittedly has pioneered great efficiency-enhancing production or distribution procedures – procedures that have, in turn, increased consumers’ choices and lowered the prices of those choices – is continuing to be an intrepid…
  • Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    22 Oct 2014 | 4:14 am
    (Don Boudreaux) … is from page 94 of my late Nobel-laureate colleague James M. Buchanan‘s 2005 book, Why I, Too, Am Not a Conservative: The Normative Vision of Classical Liberalism: To be free to choose implies acceptance of the results of choices made, which means, in turn, that there should be no assignment of blame to others, including the state, if these choices turn out to have been wrong.
  • Bonus Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    21 Oct 2014 | 8:35 pm
    (Don Boudreaux) … is from page 35 of the manuscript of Deirdre McCloskey‘s new, extensive, and brilliant review of Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century; (quoted here with Deirdre’s kind permission): It is important in thinking about the issues Piketty so energetically raises to keep straight what exactly is unequal.  Physical capital and the paper claims to it are unequally owned, of course, although pension funds and the like do compensate to some degree.  The yield on such portions of the nation’s capital stock is the income of the rich,…
  • Standard Myth

    Don Boudreaux
    21 Oct 2014 | 9:08 am
    (Don Boudreaux) Here’s a letter to the New York Times: Paul Krugman’s allegation that Amazon has harmful monopsony power misses many a mark, not least of which is Mr. Krugman’s mistaken account of John. D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil as a monopoly that “had too much power” (“Amazon’s Monopsony Is Not O.K.,” Oct. 20). Serious students of Standard’s practices during the late 19th and early 20th centuries understand that complaints against that company came overwhelmingly from other refiners who couldn’t match Standard’s great efficiencies.  Yet no complaints came…
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    Dollars & Sense Blog

  • Tuesday Links: London Whale, S.A.C. Capital, Jeff Madrick

    Chris Sturr
    21 Oct 2014 | 1:23 pm
    Apologies about the break from posts for the past week plus.  I just moved apartments, and that kept me from blogging. (Though around the same time I was moving we had some troubles with our sister blog, Triple Crisis, which also took up a lot of time. I have found some temporary fixes for our troubles, but if there are any WordPress developers out there who could give us some pro bono help with our two blogs (which both run on WordPress) and our website (which we intend to shift over to WordPress), please drop us a line.) Here are my latest links: (1) Jeff Madrick’s Seven Bad Ideas:…
  • Friday Links: Market Basket, War and Climate Change, etc.

    Chris Sturr
    3 Oct 2014 | 8:43 am
    (1) Alejandro Reuss on Market Basket:  I noticed that a Twitter account related to the low-wage worker organizing that is going on now, @LowPayIsNotOk, tweeted about a ridiculous article from Forbes arguing that the take-away from the return of Arthur T. Demoulas as CEO to the Market Basket supermarket chain is that good leaders know how to engage their employees’ volunteerism (Market Basket: The Power of Volunteerism And Employee Engagement).  That inspired me to post the piece on Market Basket by my co-editor, Alejandro Reuss, in our current issue (our Annual Labor Issue): The…
  • Annual Labor Issue

    Chris Sturr
    25 Sep 2014 | 3:23 pm
      We have finally sent our September/October 2014 Annual Labor Issue out to e-subscribers (print subscribers should get it within a week to ten days).  And I just posted our cover story to the website, The Future of Work, Leisure, and Consumption in an Age of Economic and Ecological Crisis, which is an interview with economist and Boston College sociology professor Juliet Schor. Here is the editors’ note from p. 2 of the issue: Unconventional Wisdom Here are some bits of “conventional wisdom” about labor relations and work in the United States today: It’s part of the…
  • Climate March Links: Industrial Policy!

    Chris Sturr
    19 Sep 2014 | 3:49 pm
    A few items in advance of this weekend’s Climate March in NYC: (1) Ron Baiman of the Chicago Political Economy Group sent us this: I’m sometimes asked: What is industrial policy? This article (“Sun and Wind Alter Global Landscape, Leaving Utilities Behind”) by Justin Gillis of the New York Times shows what industrial policy is. If Germany, a country with little sun, and little wind-swept land mass can do it, we all can! In fact as the article notes, German (and Chinese) industrial policies are bringing prices down and making these planetary saving technologies…
  • Tuesday Links: CEO Pay, Crisis Costs, Climate March, etc.

    Chris Sturr
    16 Sep 2014 | 10:47 am
    (1) Dr. Dollar on the Ex-Im Bank.  Our latest piece from the (still in production) Sept/Oct issue: Arthur “Dr. Dollar” MacEwan answers this question from D&S reader Arne Alpert: “Congressional Republicans and the Heritage Foundation are making a big deal about the Export-Import Bank, calling it “crony capitalism.” Are they right? Does the Ex-Im Bank serve a useful purpose, or is it just propping up the profits of trans-national corporations?” (2) Susan Holmberg and Mark Schmitt, The Overpaid CEO. Interesting piece that focuses on the costs of high CEO pay.
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    Japan Economy Watch

  • Is Japan Back In Recession?

    Edward Hugh
    8 Oct 2014 | 8:39 am
    “People should seriously consider that Japan’s economy may have fallen into recession despite the weaker yen and a stock rally from the BOJ’s easing and the flexible fiscal policy by Abe’s administration,” said Maiko Noguchi, senior economist at Daiwa Securities. “Initial expectations that the economy could withstand the negative effects of a sales tax hike through a virtuous circle seem to be
  • Does Abenomics Work? - The Doubts Grow

    Edward Hugh
    18 Sep 2014 | 12:35 pm
    Is something in the air? Do I detect a change in consensus on the way things are going in Japan? Certainly a slew of articles have been published in the financial press over the last month questioning where the Abenomics experiment is headed for. The general conclusion seems to be that wherever it is it is certainly not the originally designated endpoint. Thus the Economist. "It is crisis mode
  • Abenomics - What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

    Edward Hugh
    14 Aug 2014 | 8:05 am
    If this week's economics news is positive then that is good.  But if it's bad then that's even better, since there is more potential for it to improve next week, and if it doesn't, well that's doubly better since there will be  even more reason for central banks to step in and push up asset prices. Maybe all this sounds peculiar, even perverse, but it would seem to be how many people working in
  • Japan Inflation At A 32 Year High?

    Edward Hugh
    29 Jun 2014 | 12:23 pm
    Just in case anyone was in any doubt last weeks newspaper  headlines blared it out for us loud and clear - Japanese inflation is back, and has even hit levels last seen in 1982. (Click on image below for better viewing). In fact consumer prices in Japan rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in May according to the Bank of Japan's preferred measure, driven higher from one month to another by the
  • Will Japan Re-enter Deflation in April 2015?

    Edward Hugh
    20 Jun 2014 | 3:20 am
    Reading the most recent statements from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda or Finance Minister Taro Aso you would get the impression that the days of deflation are now well and truly numbered in Japan. Martin Schulz, economist at Fujitsu Research Institute in Tokyo, goes even further. “Deflation is over in Japan,” he told Bloomberg Television First Up’s Angie Lau . Even Japan’s industrial
 
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    Credit Slips

  • Credit Risk Retention Rules and QRM

    Adam Levitin
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:43 pm
    The long awaited credit risk retention rules for securitization are out. The big question--whether the qualified residential mortgage or QRM exemption would be narrower than the CFPB's qualified mortgage or QM safe harbor to the Ability to Repay requirement for mortgages is no. QRM=QM. The short version is that the rule doesn't require meaningful credit risk retention where it counts, and imposes significant market-shaping safe-harbor requirements where skin in the game isn't so important. The basic rule is that 5% credit risk must be retained, unhedged, by the securitization…
  • Are You Sure That's Your Testimony?

    Adam Levitin
    22 Oct 2014 | 1:25 pm
    Yves Smith has had some great coverage of the AIG bailout trail over on Naked Capitalism.  While the litigation, as Yves has characterized it, is a bit like a brawl between the ugly stepsisters, it's telling us all kinds of stuff we didn't know (or at least couldn't document) about the 2008-09 bailouts.    Today's coverage is a must-read piece by Matt Stoller about the civil service regulatory capture at the Fed, as personified by its general counsel.  The AIG trial has highlighted some of the worldview problems at the Fed. It has also included some jaw-dropping…
  • Is a 36% Cap Radical?

    Nathalie Martin
    19 Oct 2014 | 2:03 pm
    I was pleased to see today’s New York Times editorial entitled “A Rate Cap for All Consumer Loans.”  It created a very public description of an industry indiscretion involving loaning money to the military at over 36%. Those loans are illegal because a federal law makes it so, a law that passed with broad and deep bipartisan support because trapping military personnel in high-cost loans interferes with military readiness and thus threatens national security. This editorial, not in some fringe publication, but rather the New York Times, argues that we all deserve the same protections…
  • Unseal the Doomsday Book!

    Adam Levitin
    14 Oct 2014 | 6:40 pm
    When I first heard about the NY Fed's Doomsday book, my initial thought was, "Wow, they've got a comprehensive survey of land titles, so MERS really isn't an issue!" Then I realized it was a Doomsday book, not a Domesday book. Apparently the Doomsday book is some sort of "in case of emergency" do-it-yourself bailouts manual that outlines the steps the NY Fed believes it can legally take to stave off economic Armageddon.  I'm rather puzzled by the NY Fed's claim that it should be kept under seal.  I guess we'll find out more of the Fed's…
  • Bankruptcy Filings Are Low, But Not Everywhere

    Bob Lawless
    10 Oct 2014 | 1:35 pm
    Bankruptcy filings have dipped to their lowest rate since 1990, as previously blogged (ignoring anomalous statistical gyrations around the 2005 changes to the bankruptcy law). Over the past twelve months the bankruptcy filing rate per 1,000 persons has been 2.95, which is the first time it has been below 3.0 in almost 25 years. But, the filing rate is not that low everywhere. Before discussing how the filing rates are different across the country, the usual question I get is why the bankruptcy filing rate has declined so much. The answer to that question is not this post. Rather, see many…
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    The Aleph Blog » The Aleph Blog

  • Meeting the “Bond King”

    David Merkel
    17 Oct 2014 | 4:03 am
    Photo Credit: ~Sage~ || King of the Beasts, eh?It was winter in early 1995, and I was wondering if I still had a business selling Guaranteed Investment Contracts [GICs].  Confederation Life had gone insolvent the August prior, and I noticed that fewer and fewer stable value funds wanted to purchase my GICs, because our firm was small, and as such, did not get a good credit rating, despite excellent credit metrics.  The lack of a good rating kept buyers away.Still, I felt I needed to try my best for one more year or so, despite my feelings that the business was dying soon.  With that…
  • Mantra: Interest Rates Have to Rise, Interest Rates Have to…

    David Merkel
    16 Oct 2014 | 2:30 am
    Photo Credit: Beto Vilaboim || No, you are not crazy — it *is* hopelessI thought of structuring this post like a fictional story, but I couldn’t figure out how to make it good enough for publication.  Well, truth is often stranger than fiction, so have a look at this Bloomberg article pointing at a 37% loss in the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT).A few points to start with: shorting is hard.  Leveraged shorting is harder.  I think I have reasonable expertise in much though not all of investing, and I put most shorts in the “too hard pile.”That said, I…
  • Even with Good Managers, Volatility Matters

    David Merkel
    16 Oct 2014 | 12:42 am
    Photo Credit: sea turtleThis is another episode in my continuing saga on dollar-weighted returns. We eat dollar-weighted returns.  Dollar-weighted returns are the returns investors actually receive in a open-end mutual fund or an ETF, which includes their timing decisions, as opposed to the way that performance statistics are ordinarily stated, which assumes that investors buy-and-hold.In order for active managers to have a reasonable chance of beating the market, they have to have portfolios that are significantly different than the market.  As a result, their portfolios will not behave…
  • Factor Glut

    David Merkel
    14 Oct 2014 | 1:22 am
    Photo Credit: Dan CenturyI use factors in my investing. What *are* factors, you ask?  Factors are quantitative variables that have been associated with potential outperformance.  What are some of these factors?Valuation (including yield)Price Momentum (and its opposite in some cases)Insider TradingIndustry factorsNeglectLow VolatilityQuality (gross margins as a fraction of assets)Asset shrinkageShare count shrinkageMeasures of accounting qualityand more…This is a large portion of what I use for screening in my eighth portfolio rule.  I’m not throwing this idea out of the…
  • Numerator vs Denominator

    David Merkel
    11 Oct 2014 | 3:07 am
    Photo Credit: JimmieEvery now and then, a piece of good news gets announced, and then something puzzling happens.  Example: the GDP report comes out stronger than expected, and the stock market falls.  People scratch their heads and say, “Huh?”A friend of mine who I haven’t heard from in a while, Howard Simons, astutely would comment something to the effect of: “The stock market is not a futures contract on GDP.”  This much is true, but why is it true?  How can the market go down on good economic news?Some of us as investors use a concept called a discounted…
 
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    Quoting the Crisis

  • Why Monopolistic Pension Funds Undermine Capitalism

    6 Oct 2014 | 12:53 pm
    Why Monopolistic Pension Funds Undermine Capitalism: Roger Martin, hbr.org Peter Drucker was right, as he repeatedly was, when he foresaw in 1976 the emergence of pension funds as the most powerful wielder of capital in the modern economy. In his unique way he gave the story a neat twist by arguing that pension funds wou…
  • CEOs Get Paid Too Much, According to Pretty Much Everyone in the...

    23 Sep 2014 | 9:17 pm
    CEOs Get Paid Too Much, According to Pretty Much Everyone in the World Gretchen Gavett, hbr.org Rumblings of discontent about executive wages, the 1%, and wealth gaps know no borders. And neither does fierce debate about income inequality in general. But until now, it’s been relatively unclear how much people think CEOs should really make…
  • Microsoft’s $29.6 billion scam: Tech giant leads the way in...

    29 Aug 2014 | 11:07 am
    Microsoft’s $29.6 billion scam: Tech giant leads the way in tax-avoiding innovation David Sirota, salon.com More and more companies who enjoy huge benefits operating in the U.S. are trying to weasel their way out of taxesReading companies’ annual reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission is a reliable cure for insomnia. Every so often, though…
  • Beware the enormous bubble in bonds Chris Martenson,...

    29 Aug 2014 | 11:05 am
    Beware the enormous bubble in bonds Chris Martenson, marketwatch.com There’s an enormous bubble building in global bond markets, warns Chris Martenson.The only question now is: Who will take the losses?There’s a saying on Wall Street: Stocks are for show, but bonds are for dough.The flash, sizzle and focus…
  • A European Lost Decade?

    22 Aug 2014 | 4:03 am
    A European Lost Decade?: Michael Heise, project-syndicate.org Europe’s current economic predicament sounds a lot like Japan’s in the 1990s, which culminated in a “lost decade” of stagnant growth and deflation from which the country is still working to recover. How can Europe avoid a similar fate?
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    IMF Survey Magazine

  • New Revenues Can Offset Africa’s Rising Income Inequality

    21 Oct 2014 | 9:14 am
    Combating rising income inequality in sub-Saharan Africa will require a pragmatic, multipronged approach to uncover new sources of revenue while also enabling critical investments in human capital, participants agree at a seminar in Washington, D.C.
  • Strong Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, but Pockets of Difficulty

    20 Oct 2014 | 6:22 am
    Strong growth in most of sub-Saharan Africa’s economies should support robust regional expansion in 2014 and 2015, the IMF’s regional outlook says. In most countries, growth benefits from a blend of infrastructure investment, expanding services, and agricultural output.
  • Panel Debates Moves to Spur Growth, Create Jobs

    15 Oct 2014 | 2:06 pm
    Public infrastructure investment can boost both short-term and long-term growth in countries across the development spectrum, provided that the investment raises the economy’s productive capacity, participants agreed at a conference.
  • Europe Needs to Act On All Fronts, Says Panel

    15 Oct 2014 | 10:36 am
    Amid testing economic times for Europe, well managed investment in infrastructure, along with other structural reforms, stood out as a way to help kick-start the economy, according to prominent speakers at an IMF seminar on the EU’s reform agenda.
  • Tharman: We Know What Needs to be Done and We Need to Do It

    12 Oct 2014 | 4:20 pm
    In an interview, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, chair of the IMF’s policy steering body, calls for countries to move quickly to adopt structural reforms to boost growth and avert a prolonged period of weak growth.
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    24/7 Wall St.

  • Yelp Earnings and Guidance Take a Reality Check

    247chrislange
    22 Oct 2014 | 2:04 pm
    Yelp, Inc. (NASDAQ: YELP) reported its third-quarter earnings Wednesday after the market closed as $0.05 in earnings per share and $102.5 million in revenue against Thomson Reuters consensus...
  • Earnings Challenged by Guidance from AT&T

    247chrislange
    22 Oct 2014 | 1:33 pm
    AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) reported its third-quarter earnings Wednesday after the market closed as $0.63 in earnings per share and $33.0 billion in revenue against Thomson Reuters consensus estimates...
  • Sprint Fired 452 Employees Last Weekend, Keeps Chasing Low-End Data Consumers

    Paul Ausick
    22 Oct 2014 | 1:32 pm
    In an effort to maintain its position as the low-cost leader in wireless data, Sprint Corp. (NYSE: S) today announced a 1-gigabyte shared data allowance for $20 in its Family Share Pack. The wireless...
  • Visa Dividend Hike Maybe As Good As It Can Get

    Jon C. Ogg
    22 Oct 2014 | 1:28 pm
    Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) is one of the key dividend upgrades that had been predicted by 24/7 Wall St. before the end of 2014. The credit card processing giant lived up to that expectation on Wednesday by...
  • The 52-Week Low Club for Wednesday

    Paul Ausick
    22 Oct 2014 | 1:06 pm
    October 22, 2014: Here are four stocks among the 44 equities making new 52-week lows today. Boulder Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: BDBD) dropped about 32% today to post a new 52-week low of $8.72. The stock’s...
 
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    The Baseline Scenario

  • No, You Can’t Get a Drink at 5 AM

    James Kwak
    16 Oct 2014 | 5:28 am
    By James Kwak I’m in the United Club at SFO waiting for a flight, and the bar is closed until 8. So much for business travel. I just published a post over at Medium that is really about two things: how both airline marketers and on-campus recruiters perpetuate the idea that air travel is glamorous, even when all of us know that it isn’t. It’s sort of a sequel to one of my favorite posts of those I’ve written, “Why Do Harvard Kids Head to Wall Street?” which I think is the one Paul Tough mentioned in his book about grit. Now that it’s recruiting…
  • Cultural Capture and the Financial Crisis

    James Kwak
    9 Oct 2014 | 6:27 am
    By James Kwak A few years ago, while still in law school, I was invited to write a chapter for a Tobin Project book on regulatory capture. It was a bit intimidating, being part of a project that included luminaries like David Moss, Dan Carpenter, Luigi Zingales, Richard Posner, Tino Cuellar, and the deans of two of the best law schools in the country. I was asked to write something about an idea that I had slipped into 13 Bankers, almost in passing, about the cultural prestige of the financial industry and the political and regulatory benefits the industry derived from that prestige. My…
  • Game of Thrones, The Wire, and the New York Fed

    James Kwak
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:07 am
    By James Kwak I wrote a column that went up this morning at The Atlantic about the ProPublica/This American Life story about the New York Fed. The gist of the argument is that we all knew the New York Fed was captured; for people like Tim Geithner, that’s a feature, not a bug. There was a paragraph in my original draft that I really liked, but I can completely understand why the editors didn’t want it: “When Tyrion Lannister wants his son killed, he sentences him to death in public. When Avon Barksdale wants potential incriminating witnesses killed, he obliquely lets his…
  • New Collection on Medium

    James Kwak
    25 Sep 2014 | 6:49 am
    By James Kwak I’ve joined a new collection on Medium devoted to business and finance writing. It’s called “Bull Market,” after an intense lobbying campaign (including alleged vote-buying, although I haven’t tried to collect) by Felix Salmon, and includes Felix, Mark Buchanan, Dan Davies, Alexis Goldstein, Francine McKenna, Evan Soltas, and Mark Stein. The goal is to write thoughtful articles that don’t just respond to the latest story on the wire (although there will be some of that, too). My contribution for today is a post about the no-poaching lawsuit…
  • Changes

    James Kwak
    19 Sep 2014 | 1:40 pm
    By James Kwak You may have noticed that my blogging has tailed way off over the past few months—to, well, just about nothing. You probably noticed that it was pretty spotty for a long time before that. The main reason is that I’ve been busy with a new teaching job, which requires some effort on academic publications, and raising two small children. The other major factor is that I often just find I don’t have much that’s original to say. Financial regulation is a pretty heavily covered field, and I don’t have the time to be a real expert on, say, derivatives…
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    Trends... Find them, ride them and get off.

  • Today is a BETTER day to Panic

    Howard Lindzon
    21 Oct 2014 | 8:02 am
    Last week, the markets were going to zero thanks to Ebola and Netflix. Nike was the new Fila and Apple was the next Blackberry. The VIX spiked to 28 and the ‘Fear and Greed Index’ on CNN was 1. I was a buyer and outlined some of them in this blog post. As of this morning I am out of 3/4 of the stock I rented. I was willing to own for longer, but I will take the large quick gains. Biotech has continued to lead this market and barely budged in the big panic of 2014. It has quickly reasserted itself. For now, panic has subsided, but if you were scared and hoped your pain would end,…
  • Stocktoberfest – How to Invest for Profit and Joy as the Boom Continues

    Howard Lindzon
    20 Oct 2014 | 10:14 pm
    The glass is half full in my world…despite the mainstream media, net neutrality, Ebola and negative interest rates, I pop out of bed every morning to invest. The internet is industrial, energy is ‘tilting to the power grid‘, the ‘personal cloud‘ is coming, the enterprise is getting ready to spend and hire, ‘fashology‘ is now more fashion than technology, crowdfunding is not a fad, driverless cars and the ‘pivot to passive‘ are a reality and the super rich want to live forever and sleep on demand (biotech is booming because nature is a…
  • The Inconceivable Rally is Dead…Ebola and Netflix Killed It!

    Howard Lindzon
    15 Oct 2014 | 7:32 pm
    I love Netflix, I just don’t own it. Tonight, I feel a little less stupid. The stock has had more panic attacks than Tony Soprano. Tomorrow it is set to open down $120 points. Let’s put it all in a perspective: The stock has broken all laws of physics for technicians. Moving on… Since September….short indexes, long Ebola stocks has been a career maker. Maybe three people on the planet got this trade dead right and they won’t be on Twitter or CNBC. I watched the trade develop on Stocktwits ticker streams but did not participate. So many people in my stream have…
  • Ebola Won…But I am Buying

    Howard Lindzon
    15 Oct 2014 | 11:29 am
    The US markets are now all down on the year…which I sum up below in a cashtag: Goldman Sachs stock now negative on the year which means as usual…record bonuses… GS — Howard Lindzon (@howardlindzon) Oct. 15 at 09:07 AM Go watch Jon Stewart from last night if you want a hint of any truth on #EBOLA. I still don’t care how and why the markets are plunging, but they are. The signals were there starting in February when we discussed the small caps breaking down. When fear grips Wall Street, the ‘sell’ button becomes easy to hit. Your cool ‘robo’…
  • It is TOO Late to Sell and It’s NEVER Too Later to Sell…and ROBO Advisor Advice – The Market Panic of 2014.

    Howard Lindzon
    13 Oct 2014 | 4:04 pm
    Today we have a mild panic in action. I have no idea why it started Friday. It just did. I have been buying XIV since Friday…it’s messy. It is a ‘juiced’ up way to get long the market and anything can go wrong short-term. Here is what it looks like recently with my awesome ChartIQ doodle : I don’t like individual stocks much in a meltdown because I don’t want to pick the one pig in the barn on fire. I am too old for 80 screens showing me 300 stocks dancing around, and the marketing departments of all these ETF hucksters have created some cool products to…
 
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    Economic Principals

  • Imperfect Competition, Legitimate at Last

    dw
    19 Oct 2014 | 1:00 pm
    The Nobel award  last week to Jean Tirole, of Toulouse School of Economics, capped a twentieth-century drama whose story has barely begun to be told. I can describe it here only in the broadest way; thanks to the Swedes, the details will now gradually emerge, as did those of similar developments in the past. But some idea about the episodes’ broader place in the scheme of things, as it pertains to you, can be had by viewing it in historical perspective. The story begins in the 1920s, in the years before John Maynard Keynes took center stage.  Edward Chamberlin (1899-1967) was a bright…
  • The Badger

    dw
    12 Oct 2014 | 1:37 pm
    American International Group minority shareholder Maurice (Hank) Greenberg, 89, sued the US government in 2011, charging the bargain it drove when it rescued the enormous insurance company he had built from humble beginnings was not only extortionate (the Federal Reserve Board took 80 percent of A.I.G.’s stock) but illicit, to boot. US Court of Claims Judge Thomas Wheeler, a referee in matters where the government is involved, agreed to hear the case. Last summer the jurist set out  his ambitions this way: I think by the time we get finished with this case and we have our trial, we’re…
  • Busted!

    dw
    5 Oct 2014 | 4:08 pm
    Not for the first time, EP chose a topic too difficult for the time allotted. Back next week. dw Share/Bookmark
  • Early Warnings

    dw
    29 Sep 2014 | 3:44 am
    The course in introductory computer science at Harvard College this year surpassed elementary economics in popularity. It has 818 enrollments, or nearly 12 percent of the undergraduate population, compared to 711 students in Economics 10. For most of the last thirty years, the economics course has been the catalog’s top offering. The swing probably reflects the expert showmanship of computer scientist David Malan more than any underlying change in the relative importance of the fields. (See this eye-opening account of Malan’s entrepreneurial flair by Cordelia Mendez, and/or read this…
  • Meanwhile, in the Annals of Citizenship

    dw
    21 Sep 2014 | 1:34 pm
    US capitalism seems to be taking another turn.  The Old Normal (Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different) was the expectation that, even after a serious banking crisis, growth would resume its long-term annual trend of 2.0 percent in five years or so. The New Normal says, “Forget the trend.” Robert Gordon, of Northwestern University, and Lawrence Summers, of Harvard University, expect slow growth for decades, thanks to various “headwinds,” or constraints on potential output  (Gordon); or insufficient demand, stemming from a savings glut (Summers). A lively…
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    Marginal REVOLUTION

  • Venezuela estimate of the day

    Tyler Cowen
    22 Oct 2014 | 2:29 pm
    Venezuela loses $728MM for each 1$ the oil price drops. Assuming oil @ $104 in 2014 and $96 in 2015 Vzla’s $ deficit in 2015 will be $27.8bn That is from Moiss Naim on Twitter.  Here is more on the same topic.
  • Evidence from opera on the efficacy of copyright

    Tyler Cowen
    22 Oct 2014 | 10:31 am
    Michela Giorcelli and Petra Moser have a new paper, the abstract is this: This paper exploits variation in the adoption of copyright laws within Italy – as a result of Napoleon’s military campaign – to examine the effects of copyrights on creativity. To measure variation in the quantity and quality of creative output, we have collected detailed data on 2,598 operas that premiered across eight states within Italy between 1770 and 1900. These data indicate that the adoption of copyrights led to a significant increase in the number of new operas premiered per state and year. Moreover, we…
  • Assorted links

    Tyler Cowen
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:59 am
    1. How much of financial fluctuations is behavioral? (pdf) 2. Moral licensing and portfolio effects. 3. Silly markets in everything. 4. Does feeling young and acting young make you young again? (speculative) 5. The English are now grumpy over their own rights in the UK.
  • Wedding ring and ceremony expenditures predict shorter marriage duration

    Tyler Cowen
    21 Oct 2014 | 11:39 pm
    There is a new paper from Andrew M. Francis and Hugo M. Mialon: In this paper, we evaluate the association between wedding spending and marriage duration using data from a survey of over 3,000 ever-married persons in the United States. Controlling for a number of demographic and relationship characteristics, we find evidence that marriage duration is inversely associated with spending on the engagement ring and wedding ceremony. What is the mechanism?  Are signal-requiring and financial commitment-requiring marriages more likely to be fragile?  Or, to put forward a politically incorrect…
  • What I’ve been reading

    Tyler Cowen
    21 Oct 2014 | 10:59 pm
    1. Doris Kearns, The Bully Pulpit: Theodore Roosevelt, William Howard Taft, and the Golden Age of Journalism.  This Pulitzer-Prize winning book is compulsively readable and is most valuable on how the Roosevelt and Taft administrations fit together in American history.  I wish it had more detail on economic issues. 2. Walter Isaacson, The Innovators: How a Group of Hackers, Geniuses, and Geeks Created the Digital Revolution.  At first I was bored but the book picks up and is then interesting throughout, most of all I enjoyed the portrait of Bill Gates.  It is a good overview of how some…
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    Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

  • Noted for Your Morning Procrastination for October 22, 2014

    J. Bradford DeLong
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:12 am
    Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog For Thursday: Josh Bivens, Brad DeLong, Jeff Madrick, Ylan Mui: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Morning Must-Read: Richard Mayhew: Keeping It Like the Kaiser - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Morning Must-Read: Note That Politico Does Not Label Advertisements as Advertisements - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Morning Must-Read: Charles Steindel: Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Plus: Things to Read on the Morning of October 22, 2014 -…
  • Did You Know That "Irk" Makes a Synonym of Itself in Rot13?: Live from Crows Coffee

    J. Bradford DeLong
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:47 am
    Stolen from http://unfogged.com My quality of life is diminished by the fact that I am not a fluent reader of rot13. Is there a good online drill site?
  • Liveblogging World War II: October 22, 1944: Leyte Gulf: Background

    J. Bradford DeLong
    22 Oct 2014 | 5:00 am
    Battle of Leyte Gulf: Background: On 12 October 1944, the US 3rd Fleet under Admiral Halsey began a series of carrier raids against Formosa and the Ryukyu Islands, with a view to ensuring that the aircraft based there could not intervene in the Leyte landings. The Japanese command therefore put Shō-Gō 2 into action, launching waves of air attacks against 3rd Fleet's carriers. In what Morison refers to as a 'knock-down, drag-out fight between carrier-based and land-based air', the Japanese were routed, losing 600 aircraft in three days, almost their entire air strength in the region.
  • For Thursday: Josh Bivens, Brad DeLong, Jeff Madrick, Ylan Mui: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America

    J. Bradford DeLong
    21 Oct 2014 | 2:52 pm
    Over at Equitable Growth:Josh Bivens, Brad DeLong, Jeff Madrick, Ylan Mui: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America: Thursday, October 23, 2014 1:00 - 2: 30 p.m. ET Economic Policy Institute 1333 H St., NW Suite 300 Washington, DC 20005 http://www.epi.org/event/mainstream-economic-thinking-imperils-america/ Advice about what points I should try to hit would be most welcome... DRAFT PRESENTATION SLIDES: On Jeff Madrick: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America J. Bradford DeLong U.C. Berkeley For Delivery: 2014-10-23 Prepared: 2014-10-22 Jeff Madrick's Seven Bad Ideas The…
  • Liveblogging World War II: October 21, 1944: Douglas MacArthur

    J. Bradford DeLong
    21 Oct 2014 | 9:57 am
    Doughlas MacArthur: This is the Voice of Freedom, General MacArthur speaking. People of the Philippines: I have returned. By the grace of Almighty God our forces stand again on Philippine soil – soil consecrated in the blood of our two peoples. We have come, dedicated and committed to the task of destroying every vestige of enemy control over your daily lives, and of restoring, upon a foundation of indestructible strength, the liberties of your people. At my side is your President, Sergio Osmena, worthy successor of that great patriot, Manuel Quezon, with members of his cabinet. The seat of…
 
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    Dani Rodrik's weblog

  • Services, manufacturing, and new growth strategies

    Dani Rodrik
    15 Oct 2014 | 7:15 am
    I gave a talk yesterday on New Growth Strategies at the World Bank, which was more or less an elaboration of this short piece. I argued that industrialization had pretty much run out of steam as a growth strategy, that services would need to be the focus going forward, and that this required in turn a different policy mindset about how to increase productivity. In particular, I argued that policies focusing on generating a sequence of sectoral “winners,” which worked so  well in manufacturing (garments to car seats to cars to electronics), would have much smaller payoff in services,…
  • Back to sanity on economic convergence

    Dani Rodrik
    11 Sep 2014 | 1:50 pm
    It’s been interesting to watch how the conventional wisdom on rapid convergence – developing countries closing the gap with the advanced economies – has been changing over the last few years. It wasn’t so long ago that the world was in the grips of emerging-markets mania, projecting wildly optimistic growth numbers decades into the future. For the last 4-5 years, I have been writing that the pace of convergence we have experienced over the last two decades is unsustainable. There were temporary factors (cheap capital, low interest rates, high commodity prices, rapid Chinese expansion)…
  • My moonlighting career of the last 4 years

    Dani Rodrik
    25 Jun 2014 | 10:20 am
    At long last, Turkey's consitutional court has reversed the conviction of the more than 200 officers previously found guilty in the bogus Sledgehammer coup plot, leading to the release on June 19th of all those in jail (including my father in law). Even though a retrial is to take place, the ruling is a coda to the last four-and-a-half years during which my wife and I moonlighted as criminal investigator, forensic analyst, and political activist. It has been a truly surreal and bizarre experience, given how so many intelligent people bought into -- and refused let go of -- a coup plot…
  • Joining Global Policy as general editor

    Dani Rodrik
    31 May 2014 | 3:37 pm
    David Held is one of the most thoughtful researchers and commentators on global issues, so I am thrilled and honored to be joining forces with him as joint general editor of Global Policy. The journal publishes a range of exciting academic and policy oriented pieces. Check it out here.
  • Erdogan’s Coup

    Dani Rodrik
    27 May 2014 | 5:57 am
    Daron Acemoglu wrote what seemed like a surprising upbeat piece on Turkish democracy a few days ago. His argument seems to be that democracy required power to be wrested away from the secularists who had erected authoritarian structures, and Erdogan had achieved that. Even though, Erdogan’s recent turn to authoritarianism is “lamentable,” it was, Acemoglu claims, a predictable stage in Turkey’s democratic transition. Once Erdogan is gone, the article implies, democracy would be on a stronger footing than ever. There were in fact many other paths that could have proved less costly. The…
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    99% Invisible

  • 137- Good Bread

    Roman Mars
    22 Oct 2014 | 12:30 am
    The first print advertisement for Wonder Bread came out before the bread itself. It stated only that “a wonder” was coming. In a lot of ways, the statement was true. Wonder Bread was the perfect loaf.  “Slow food” advocates have pronounced industrial white bread of any brand a symbol of a modern grocery problem:  we consumers don’t know where our food comes from. The funny thing is that industrial white bread—that evenly sliced, squishy, moist, perfectly white and wondrous loaf—was once a highly designed solution to that very same problem. ***SUPPORT THE 2014 RADIOTOPIA…
  • Kickstart Radiotopia- A Storytelling Revolution

    Roman Mars
    19 Oct 2014 | 4:14 pm
    When you support Radiotopia, you are making sure 99% Invisible can keep coming to you weekly and you’ll be supporting our entire collective of award-winning, independent radiomakers. Please go to our Kickstarter page and back us in our effort to remake radio for the most innovative creators and curious listeners. Thanks! https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1748303376/radiotopia-a-storytelling-revolution  
  • 136- Lights Out

    Roman Mars
    14 Oct 2014 | 11:26 am
    On July 13th, 1977, lightning struck an electricity transmission line in New York City, causing the line’s automatic circuit breaker to kick in. The electricity from the affected line was diverted to another line. This was fairly normal and everything was fine—until a second bolt of lightening struck. Electric lines started shutting themselves off. As more and more lines were shut off, the system started to shut itself down. Eventually, the largest power generator in the area, known as Big Allis, turned itself off. And then all of New York City went dark. On that evening, DJ…
  • 135- For Amusement Only

    Roman Mars
    7 Oct 2014 | 4:17 pm
    Everyone has tried it at some point. The authorities started turning a blind eye years ago, but it wasn’t officially legalized until the summer of 2014. Finally, after more than 80 years of illegitimacy, the City of Oakland has legalized…pinball machines. Pinball’s design history can help explain why it was illegal for so long.
  • 134- The Straight Line Is A Godless Line

    Roman Mars
    30 Sep 2014 | 4:08 pm
    Straight lines form the core of our built environment. Building in straight lines makes predicting costs and calculating structural loads easier, since building materials come in linear units. Straight lines might be logical, predictable, and efficient, but they are also completely “godless”—at least according to Austrian artist and designer Tausendsassa Friedensreich Regentag Dunkelbunt Hundertwasser (which translates to “Multi-Talented Peace-Filled Rainy Day Dark-Colored Hundred Waters” in German). Hundertwasser made a name for himself, so to speak, with his…
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    Eat the Bankers.com

  • Inflation or the Lack Thereof

    Sinclair Noe
    22 Oct 2014 | 4:14 pm
    Financial Review DOW – 153 = 16,461 SPX – 14 = 1927 NAS – 36 = 4382 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.23% OIL – 2.06 = 80.43 GOLD – 8.40 = 1242.00 SILV – .34 = 17.27 The major stock indices were higher this morning, then they dropped about the time were heard reports of a shooting in Ottawa Canada, near the parliament building. The shooting in the Canadian capital left a soldier dead and the city on lockdown. The Labor Department said the Consumer Price Index edged up 0.1% last month. In the 12 months through September, the CPI rose 1.7%. The core CPI, which strips out food and energy…
  • Financial Engineers at the Gate

    Sinclair Noe
    21 Oct 2014 | 4:14 pm
    Financial Review DOW + 215 = 16,614 SPX + 37 = 1941 NAS + 103 = 4419 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.21% OIL + .64 = 82.55 GOLD + 2.50 = 1250.40 SILV + .09 = 17.62 In economic news, the National Association of Realtors reports sales of existing homes rose 2.4% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.17 million, hitting the fastest pace in one year and rebounding from an unexpected drop in August. However, September’s pace of sales was down 1.7% from a year earlier. So, the housing market isn’t roaring, but lower interest rates managed to pull some buyers off the sidelines last…
  • A Tale of Three Stocks

    Sinclair Noe
    20 Oct 2014 | 4:40 pm
    Financial Review DOW + 19 = 16,339 SPX + 17 = 1904 NAS + 57 = 4316 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.18% OIL – .21 = 81.85 GOLD + 8.70 = 1247.90 SILV + .16 = 17.53 A nice bounce in the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite. For most of the session, the Dow was in negative territory, clawing its way to positive, barely. There are 3 stocks that had a compelling story today. We start with IBM, which reported its third-quarter results; a 10th consecutive period of falling sales, marked by weaker performance in growth markets. IBM said its long-standing forecast of earnings per share of $20…
  • Tom Sturges

    Sinclair Noe
    19 Oct 2014 | 12:22 pm
    Listen to the author interview. Click the banner to buy the book. Every Idea Is a Good Idea: Be Creative Anytime, Anywhere by Tom Sturges. Access a level of creativity you never thought possible, using techniques Tom Sturges—former head of creative at Universal Music Publishing Group—learned in his 25-plus years in the music industry. Everyone is innately creative. But many of us—especially those trying to develop careers in music and the arts—wish we knew how to better tap into our creative potential. Is there a way to more easily connect with the part of our minds that knows how to…
  • Erin Arvedlund

    Sinclair Noe
    19 Oct 2014 | 12:13 pm
    Listen to the author interview. Click the banner to buy the book. Open Secret: The Global Banking Conspiracy That Swindled Investors Out of Billions by Erin Arvedlund “Gaming the LIBOR—that is, fixing the price of money—had become just that: a game. Playing it was the price of admission to a club of men who socialized together, skied in Europe courtesy of brokers and expense accounts, and reaped million-dollar bonuses.” In the midst of the financial crisis of 2008, rumors swirled that a sinister scandal was brewing deep in the heart of London. Some suspected that behind closed doors,…
 
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    iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

  • Natural Gas: The New Gold

    iMFdirect
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:16 am
    By Rabah Arezki Natural gas is creating a new reality for economies around the world.  Three major developments of the past few years have thrust natural gas into the spotlight: the shale gas revolution in the United States, the reduction in nuclear power supply following the Fukushima disaster in Japan, and geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. What’s cooking Over the last decade, the discovery of massive quantities of unconventional gas resources around the world has transformed global energy markets, and reshaped the geography of global energy trade (see map). Consumption of…
  • Banks Should Help, Not Hinder the Economy

    iMFdirect
    20 Oct 2014 | 8:11 am
    By Will Kerry and Andrea Maechler  Banks are struggling to overhaul the way they do business given new realities and new regulations adopted in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. While banks are generally stronger—they have more capital—they are less profitable, as measured by the return on equity. There are a number of reasons behind this, including: anemic net income at banks, particularly in the euro area; higher levels of equity; and banks taking fewer risks. If they cannot change their business models, there is a risk that banks will not be able to provide enough credit…
  • Good Governance Curbs Excessive Bank Risks

    iMFdirect
    16 Oct 2014 | 8:44 am
    By Luis Brandão-Marques, Gaston Gelos, and Erik Oppers  The global financial crisis reminded us that banks often take risks that are excessive from society’s point of view and can damage the economy. In part, this is the result of the incentives embedded in compensation practices and of inadequate monitoring by stakeholders.  Our analysis found the right policies could reduce banks risky behavior. Our findings In our latest Global Financial Stability Report we take stock of recent developments in executive pay, corporate governance, and bank risk taking, and conduct a novel empirical…
  • A Mirage, Not An Oasis: Easy Money and Financial Markets

    iMFdirect
    15 Oct 2014 | 8:09 am
    By Fabio Cortes, David Jones and Evan Papageorgiou Low interest rates and other central bank policies in the United States have sent investors looking for higher returns on their investments. Money is pouring into mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, which is fueling a mispricing of credit and a build-up of risks to liquidity in the markets—the ability to trade in assets of any size, at any time, and to find a ready buyer. Mutual funds and exchange-trade funds are the largest owners of U.S. corporate and foreign bonds (Chart 1). This means they provide a lot of credit to grease the…
  • Aristotle & the Archbishop of Canterbury: Overheard at the IMF’s Annual Meetings

    iMFdirect
    14 Oct 2014 | 8:07 am
    By iMFdirect editors What a week it’s been.  Practical and existential questions on how to do good and be good for the sake of the global economy and finance dominated the seminars at the IMF’s Annual Meetings in Washington. Our editors fanned out to cover what the panelists, moderators, and audiences said in a variety of seminars, and two big themes caught our eye. Jobs & growth With the global economy stuck in a low growth, high unemployment rut, how to reverse these trends is a hot topic. The average unemployment rate in developed economies stands at 8.5 percent, and among young…
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    WordPress.com News

  • Longreads’ Best of WordPress, Vol. 7

    Mark Armstrong
    22 Oct 2014 | 10:08 am
    Here it is! A new collection of our favorite stories from across all of WordPress. As always, you can find our past collections here. You can follow Longreads on WordPress.com for more daily reading recommendations, or subscribe to our free weekly email. Publishers, writers, you can share links to your favorite essays and interviews (over 1,500 words) on Twitter (#longreads) and on WordPress.com by tagging your posts longreads. 1. What Happens When a Veteran High School Teacher Becomes a Student for the Day Grant Wiggins “I waited fourteen years to do something that I should have done my…
  • A New My Sites Section

    Andy Peatling
    20 Oct 2014 | 10:10 pm
    My Sites just got a new look, but more importantly, it got a technical overhaul, making the page dramatically faster and more powerful. From one central location, scan and select any of your WordPress sites or create new ones with the support of a more visual interface. Head directly to the posts or pages of a particular WordPress or launch stats to glimpse trends and get inspiration for blog or website content.  Access themes, user settings, and sharing options with a click to make WordPress your own. The new My Sites page is a small piece of a larger effort to make WordPress.com faster,…
  • New Theme: Penscratch

    Caroline Moore
    16 Oct 2014 | 10:00 am
    Today we have a brand new free theme especially for writers and bloggers! Penscratch Penscratch is a clean, sophisticated theme for sharing your writing. Whether you’re working on an analytical essay, an anthology of poems, or a piece of long-form fiction, Penscratch makes for a pleasant reading and writing experience all around. Choose between a one- or two-column layout by adding widgets, add links to your favorite social networks, customize your home on the web with a site logo or header image, or add fancy pull quotes throughout your content. Penscratch is also responsive, ensuring…
  • Starting Next Week: Blogging 201

    Ben Huberman
    15 Oct 2014 | 8:00 am
    Blogging 201: Branding and Growth starts Monday, October 20. If you’re a recent alum of Blogging 101 looking to build on the skills you’ve developed so far, or a blogger looking for new ways to grow your site and its audience, this is the course for you. What will Blogging 201 cover? We’ll introduce tools to increase your traffic within WordPress.com as well as through other platforms, discuss ways to develop a coherent, effective brand for your blog, and show how to use your archives and your site’s stats to build your readership. During this two-week course…
  • Around the World in Nine Photos

    Krista
    14 Oct 2014 | 8:00 am
    Do you love stories from around the world? Check out the work of the following nine photographers on WordPress.com and allow your imagination to take you away… Nathanael‘s monochrome photo of the Star Lite Motel in Mt. Airy, North Carolina, conjures images of wayward romances and clandestine meetings. We loved the marquee’s message, “Forgive and forget its human to err.” (sic) which offers an almost haunting absolution. For more of Nathanael’s work, check out his blog, G’Nat’s Eye View. Photo by P. Nathanael Gough The image below, by UK…
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    EconomicPolicyJournal.com

  • Study: Most Published Results in Financial Economics are Wrong

    22 Oct 2014 | 5:27 pm
    Danielle Kurtzleben writes at VOX: In a new NBER paper, Duke University Finance Professor Campbell R. Harvey, University of Oklahoma Assistance Finance Professor Heqing Zhu, and Texas A&M Assistant Professor of Marketing Yan Liu come to the conclusion that a majority of papers in financial economics are wrong. Of course they are. Austrian school economists have long taught that you can't
  • Apartment Rents Have Risen For 23 Consecutive Quarters; Show No Sign of Easing

    22 Oct 2014 | 4:41 pm
    Rental rates increased 1% during the third quarter to an average of $1,111 a month nationwide, according to Reis, real-estate research firm that collects data on 79 U.S. metropolitan areas, reports WSJ.. That was up 3.3% from the same quarter a year ago. Last quarter's 1% increase was faster than the second quarter's 0.9% rise. Apartment rents have risen nationally for 23 straight quarters and
  • OFF THE WALL: Keith Alexander Was Day Trading in Chinese Metals Firms While He was NSA Chief

    22 Oct 2014 | 2:50 pm
    Foreign Policy magazine reports: At the same time that he was running the United States' biggest intelligence-gathering organization, former National Security Agency Director Keith Alexander owned and sold shares in commodities linked to China and Russia, two countries that the NSA was spying on heavily. At the time, Alexander was a three-star general whose financial portfolio otherwise
  • Russia Calls Europe's Bluff on Ukraine Gas Deal

    22 Oct 2014 | 2:05 pm
    Geoffrey Smith reports at Fortune: Russia, Ukraine and the European Union failed late Tuesday to strike a deal that would guarantee Russian gas supplies through the coming winter, after the E.U. refused a request by the Russian side to guarantee full and proper payment by Ukraine. The deadlock revives the risk that Russia may cut off gas deliveries to parts of Europe this winter, as part of a
  • How Many Years Would It Take for You to Personally Payoff the US Debt

    22 Oct 2014 | 1:08 pm
    By Simon Black The US government’s debt is getting close to reaching another round number—$18 trillion. It currently stands at more than $17.9 trillion. But what does that really mean? It’s such an abstract number that it’s hard to imagine it. Can you genuinely understand it beyond just being a ridiculously large number? Just like humans find it really hard to comprehend the vastness of the
 
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    Carl Futia

  • Guesstimates on October 22, 2014

    22 Oct 2014 | 6:19 am
    December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1922-1943. A close in the S&P 500 above 1944 would be a close above the .618 retracement level and this would cast serious doubt on my bear market hypothesis, especially because the 4 day rally we have just seen has the characteristics of a “kick-off” for a much bigger trend. But for the time being I am sticking with my bearish view. QQQ: Resistance at 96 has been broken. A close above 98 would put the Q’s back above the 50 day moving average and cast serious doubt on my bear market hypothesis. TNX (ten year note yield):…
  • Guesstimates on October 21, 2014

    21 Oct 2014 | 6:01 am
    December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1896-1918. Last week the S&P 500 and the Dow dropped below their 200 day moving averages on very heavy volume. I think this is a very bearish development and supports the thesis that a bear market has started.  The rally from last week’s low has been violent and fast, characteristic of rallies in a bear market.QQQ: Next support at 90 has been reached. If it fails the Q’s will be headed for 85.  Resistance is now at 96.TNX (ten year note yield): It now looks like the 10 year yield will drop to 1.60% before the…
  • Guesstimates on October 20, 2014

    20 Oct 2014 | 6:14 am
    December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1871-93. Last week the S&P 500 and the Dow dropped below their 200 day moving averages on very heavy volume. I think this is a very bearish development and supports the thesis that a bear market has started.  QQQ: Next support at 90 has been reached. If it fails the Q’s will be headed for 85.  Resistance is at 94.TNX (ten year note yield): It now looks like the 10 year yield will drop to 1.60% before the flight to safety subsides. Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s…
  • Guesstimates on October 17, 2014

    17 Oct 2014 | 6:08 am
    December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1860-1890. The S&P 500 and the Dow have dropped below their 200 day moving averages on very heavy volume. I think this is a very bearish development and supports the thesis that a bear market has started.  QQQ: Next support at 90 has been reached. If it fails the Q’s will be headed for 85.  Resistance is at 94.TNX (ten year note yield): Yields dropped below 2.00% support yesterday’ before snapping back to close above that level. Nonetheless, it now looks like the 10 year yield will drop further, probably to 1.60%…
  • Attention Traders

    16 Oct 2014 | 10:42 am
    As you know I have started to post the S&P E-mini trades I make in my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime  on this blog's Twitter feed (at the top of the right hand column). You can follow me here on Twitter for free but keep in mind that the trade postings are delayed 5-10 minutes. Since I started posting these trades in October 2013 they have generated  a 43% return trading a single contract per $10,000 of account equity (a very conservative approach since day trade margin on a single contract is only about $2,700). Since the start of the seminar 42 months ago the trades made in…
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    True Economics

  • 21/10/2014: Two Articles on Ukrainian Conflict

    21 Oct 2014 | 11:10 am
    Two items relating to Ukrainian crisis worth noting today.First an English version of the earlier De Spiegel article on German federal authorities concluding that it was likely that MH17 was shot down by the Eastern Ukrainian separatists using the BUK launcher they obtained from the seized Ukrainian military base: https://uk.news.yahoo.com/malaysia-airlines-mh17-rebels-shot-down-plane-seized-111727238.html#vzXgemW Note: this is still speculative, in so far as we do not have conclusive evidence as to where the BUK came from, nor in fact do we have full evidence on the rest of the…
  • 21/10/2014: Of Statistics: Ireland and ESA2010

    21 Oct 2014 | 2:47 am
    Eurostat released a handy note showing revisions to euro area debt and deficit figures that arose as the result of conversion to ESA2010 methodology (yes, yes, that infamous inclusion of illicit trade and re-classification of R&D spending as investment, and much more).You can read the full note here: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/government_finance_statistics/documents/Revisions-gov-deficit-debt-2010-2013.pdfAnd the effects are:Government deficit revisions:Click on chart to enlargeOne clear outlier in the entire EU28 is... Ireland. We had the largest, by far,…
  • 21/10/2014: Russian Gas, European Deliveries, Ukrainian Blackmail?

    21 Oct 2014 | 1:02 am
    Over recent days there have been plenty of statements about the winter supplies of Russian gas to Europe. Majority of these fall to one side of the argument, alleging that Russia is likely to cut off gas shipments to Europe via Ukraine.Here are the facts, strongly indicating an entirely different possibility.Fact 1: Allegations. At the end of August, Euractive reported that "Europe faces the increasing threat of a disruption to gas supplies from its main provider Russia this winter due to the crisis in Ukraine." (link)But when you read beyond the headline, you get something entirely…
  • 20/10/2014: Ruble: Poisoned, a Touch Less Than Real or NZ Dollar?

    20 Oct 2014 | 2:17 pm
    Two days ago I wrote about the pains of Ruble devaluations (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/10/18102014-latest-news-on-russian-economy.html) and here is an interesting new set of data courtesy of @ReutersJamie which shows positioning in the FX markets. All bearish, except USD, and bearish on Ruble too, but what is interesting is that Brazil Real and NZ Dollar are more bearish... And Ruble, for all its problems is positioned pretty close in line with Euro, which, apparently has no problems (remember, ECB refuses to call this a currency crisis, insisting first it was a debt crisis, now a…
  • 20/10/2014: Jean Tirole: Master Of Incentives, Risks and Contracts

    20 Oct 2014 | 3:41 am
    Last week's Nobel Memorial Prize award in economics went to Jean Tirole. Here are some of my thoughts on his tremendous legacy: http://blog.learnsignal.com/?p=90. 
 
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    Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

  • New Residential Construction Report: September 2014

    17 Oct 2014 | 1:01 pm
    Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed mixed results with total permit activity and total start activity improving while single family permit activity declined since August.Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, declined 0.5% from August to 624K single family units (SAAR), but increased 1.1% above the level seen in September 2013 and still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005.
  • Retail Sales: September 2014

    15 Oct 2014 | 7:25 am
    Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales showing mixed results in September with sales dropping 0.3% from August but rising 4.3% on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services. Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales declined slightly, falling 0.14% from August but rising 2.16% above the level seen in September 2013 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales…
  • Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – October 15 2014

    15 Oct 2014 | 6:57 am
    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications. The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases. The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate…
  • Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls and Civilian Unemployment September 2014

    3 Oct 2014 | 9:27 am
    Today's Employment Situation Report indicated that in September, net non-farm payrolls increased by 248,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 236,000 jobs while the civilian unemployment rate declined declined to 5.9% over the same period.Net private sector jobs increased 0.20% since last month climbing 2.25% above the level seen a year ago and climbing 1.61% above the peak level of employment seen in December 2007 prior to the Great Recession.
  • Employment Situation: Unemployment Duration September 2014

    3 Oct 2014 | 9:23 am
    Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed mostly improved in September while still remaining distressed by historic standards.Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more declined to 2.954 million or 31.9% of all unemployed workers while the median term of unemployment increased to 13.3 weeks and the average stay on unemployment went declined to 31.5 weeks.
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    The Economic Populist

  • Inflation Deceptive, CPI 0.1% Yet Some Items Off the Charts

    Robert Oak
    22 Oct 2014 | 3:24 pm
    The monthly Consumer Price Index increased 0.1% for September.   CPI measures inflation, or price increases.  September shows relief at the pump while steak lovers are hurting.  Core inflation is below the Fed's target point.  Yet while the monthly inflation number seems low, the situation is actually much more of a mixed bag, in part due to the way CPI is tabulated. Share
  • Existing Home Sales Feed Wall Street's Surge

    Robert Oak
    21 Oct 2014 | 2:29 pm
    The existing home sales headlines blare this is the highest increase for 2014.  That is true, yet the increase isn't much of a soar, more of a bounce back from last month's -1.75% decline. The NAR reported existing home sales increased 2.4% from last month and are down -1.7% from last year.  This represents 5.17 million homes at annualized rates. Share
  • Wikileaks Exposes Trans-Pacific Partnership as Bad Trade Deal Again

    Robert Oak
    21 Oct 2014 | 12:29 am
    Enslaved through trade,  That seems to be the agenda with trade agreements these days.  Over and over again national law, the common good is overwritten through bad trade deals.  Wikileaks has exposed yet another horror from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement being negotiated.  It seems freedom loving, Democratic United States is leading the charge to ensure life saving drugs are not affordable for most people. Share
  • Our dizzyingly aromatic world, made so by manipulative corporate chemistry, deserves the angry retort: "Non-Scents!"

    sylvia kronstadt
    19 Oct 2014 | 12:28 pm
      Share
  • It's Economic Theory, Stupid

    Econ_unmasked
    19 Oct 2014 | 12:00 pm
    As often as Carville's catch phrase has been recycled in its more popular form of "It's the economy, stupid" it doesn't quite hit the mark. While Carville's insight might lead to a political victory for a candidate, it does not necessarily lead to an economic solution. It is only an observation of the disease, not its cause. The cause, as we argued in "The Unraveling of Economics", is economic theory itself. In other words, our woes can be traced to the fact that there has never been a sound theory of economics. Share
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    Stock Trading To Go

  • STTG Market Recap October 22, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    22 Oct 2014 | 4:45 pm
    Indexes opened up Wednesday but sold off in the afternoon. Some cited a shooting in Canada as a reason but the reality is when you enter a day so extremely overbought a "reason" will be found to slow momentum. Weakness in oil also hurt the energy sector. The S&P 500 fell 0.73% and the NASDAQ 0.83%. The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index edged up 0.1 percent in September after... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap October 21, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    21 Oct 2014 | 4:19 pm
    Indexes gapped up sharply at the open and ran all day as the market put together its 3rd strong day in a row. The S&P 500 surged 1.96% and the NASDAQ 2.40%. This three day move is very similar to most rallies we have seen since 2009 in that we call it a "V shaped" move. As usual central bank activism has been a key reason to rally as Reuters reported the European Central Bank is looking... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap October 20, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    20 Oct 2014 | 4:13 pm
    Monday's action in the indexes is more typical of how a bull market rally behaves; early selling is met with a rush of buyers. After a quick open to the downside buyers jerked the indexes up immediately and a steady stream of buying came in all day. The S&P 500 gained 0.91% and the NASDAQ 1.35%. A dearth of news was probably a good thing today. After the bell all eyes were on Apple... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap October 17, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    17 Oct 2014 | 4:17 pm
    Indexes gapped up Friday and held steady most of the day as yesterday's jawboning by the Federal Reserve continued forward a day as investors hoped for either continued stimulus or a new round of it. They have been trained on this since 2008 so it is no surprise that any drop in the stock market - even 6-8% - brings calls of rescue from central bankers. The S&P 500 gained 1.29% and... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap October 16, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    16 Oct 2014 | 3:46 pm
    Indexes dipped at the open once again but stabilized as the day went by on jawboning from the Fed. That said, it was more of less selling than a lot of buying pressure. The S&P 500 gained 0.01% and the NASDAQ 0.05%. A Federal Reserve official said the central bank should consider delaying the end of stimulus plans, which as usual made traders happy. In economic news, U.S.... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
 
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    Peter Gallagher

  • Is a plurilateral the ‘way out’ for WTO on agriculture?

    pwg
    1 Oct 2014 | 2:42 pm
    Q: under what circumstances would a critical-mass (CM) plurilateral agreement on agriculture be a way “out of the mess” in the WTO agriculture negotiations? A: any CM plurilateral works as a “way out” of the WTO stalemate where it offers a degree of benefits to the members of the plurilateral agreement such that they were […]
  • Evaluation of a “Critical Mass” agreement on agriculture

    pwg
    1 Oct 2014 | 4:55 am
    The stalemate in Geneva on the December 2013 Bali Agreement concerning both Trade Faciliation and agriculture subsidies has revived some interest in the potential for a plurilateral agreement on Agriculture among WTO members. I attach to this brief post a pre-print of the summary that Andy Stoler and I wrote for the journal Global Governance […]
  • Editing Scrivener ‘Sync’ files

    pwg
    28 May 2014 | 4:57 am
    Do you use Scrivener? If so, and you’d like to edit your Scrivener files on another platform such as your iPad, I may have something that will help. I’ve made some ‘bundles’ and themes for the TextMate editor and the Textastic editor on the iPad that display inline annotations, comments and block-quotes in the text. […]
  • The longevity of plain TeX

    pwg
    29 Apr 2014 | 2:52 pm
    Microsoft Word was first released for MS DOS in October, 1983. Some five months earlier, Donald Knuth, a professor of computing at Stanford University, published “The TeX Book.” This was a jokey manual for, and a deft demonstration of, his TeX publishing program whose stable version first appeared in 1982. Each of these contemporary works […]
  • The physical science of climate change

    pwg
    18 Apr 2014 | 7:23 pm
    I’m late finding this Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) report. I include the summary of their findings on the physical science here because they accord with my present assessment. I would have added only one thing to the recitation below. I do not know why the NIPCC omitted it. That is: the IPCC’s […]
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    WILLisms.com

  • Wendy Davis Burned Through Her Out-Of-State Money, Can't Compete Down The Stretch

    Will Franklin
    6 Oct 2014 | 7:56 pm
    Texas Democrat Wendy Davis reported a miserable $3.2 million cash on hand today in her gubernatorial campaign's coffers, along with $2.5 million more combined from three other committees. Republican Greg Abbott, meanwhile, reported more than thirty million bucks cash on hand, without aid from any other committees (click image for a larger version): Political Science professor Mark P. Jones of Rice University noted over the summer that for Wendy Davis to be even remotely competitive, she would need to spend at bare minimum $10 million in the final month. Here's the quote from the article:…
  • On Socialism. And Wendy Davis.

    Will Franklin
    8 Sep 2014 | 1:55 pm
    Socialism, as defined (above) by Google. Note the synonyms. It's a loaded word in political discourse, evoking emotional reactions in many, but socialism seems to have lately (and quite suddenly) lost all meaning to post-Cold War kids. Indeed, in a recent CBS/New York Times poll, only 16% of millennials could even say what socialism is, while only a still-embarrassing 30% of those aged 30 and up could define it (57% of Tea Partiers knew about socialism, by contrast). Meanwhile, socialism itself has been mainstreamed as perfectly acceptable within the Democratic Party, while those who warn…
  • Texas Political Enthusiasm Gap Continues.

    Will Franklin
    30 May 2014 | 11:04 am
    After the March primary elections in Texas, it was clear that Democrats, particularly Wendy Davis, had a serious problem. An enthusiasm gap. Well, the runoff election this week exposed further weakness in the Democrats' plan to turn Texas blue-- or even a bit purplish-- in 2014. Here's why: (click for larger version) Approximately 200,000 more people voted in the Republican runoff (~750K) in May than voted in the Democrat primary (~550K) in March. Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton each received more votes in the Republican runoff than Wendy Davis earned in the Democrat primary. More people voted for…
  • Not All Bonds Pass: An Analysis Of Eanes I.S.D.'s Failed Bond Proposal.

    Will Franklin
    12 May 2014 | 5:57 pm
    Total new debt for fast growth Texas school districts passed over the weekend: $3,880,386,500 #TxLege— Scott Braddock (@scottbraddock) May 12, 2014 Actually, statewide, the total was more than $6 billion. And, as the Texas Public Policy Foundation noted, prior to this weekend’s bond elections, Texas’ local governments had already amassed almost $325 billion in total debt, enough red ink to soak every man, woman, and child in the Lone Star State with more than $12,000 of local debt obligation. Across Texas over the weekend, small numbers of voters approved billions of dollars in new…
  • Forgotten Time Capsule From 1966 Discovered During Home Renovation. What Happened Next Will Make You Cry.

    Will Franklin
    3 Apr 2014 | 4:50 pm
    First off, apologies for the obnoxious Upworthy/Buzzfeed type of headline. But this really is a bit of a tear-jerker, in many ways. A woman in Arizona created a time capsule in 1966 and buried it in the walls of her home. Nearly fifty years later, it was discovered during a home remodel. A few things about this jumped out at me. First, it is a sad story, obviously, because the woman died tragically in the 1970s, and the husband (who had moved out of the home long ago) had no idea the time capsule even existed until just now. Now, maybe the political contents of the letter might have made the…
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    Political Calculations

  • Why the Future Matters More than the Now for Stock Prices

    22 Oct 2014 | 12:19 am
    Since we're now outside of the anniversary period of 2013's U.S. debt ceiling crisis, the third and smallest of the major noise events of 2013, we're making the transition back to using our standard baseline model for use in forecasting and explaining changes in current day stock prices. Something that people like Catherine Rampell would not appear to believe is even possible. Even though the period from 1 October through 17 October is somewhat affected by the echo effect's impact on our mathematical model of how stock prices work, it's pretty small in size. That's certainly true after we…
  • FY 2014: To Whom Does the U.S. Government Owe Money?

    21 Oct 2014 | 12:48 am
    Who were the major holders of debt issued by the U.S. federal government as of the end of its 2014 fiscal year? The preliminary answer of who owns the $17.860 trillion in debt issued by the U.S. federal government as of 30 September 2014 is presented graphically below: The data for foreign holdings will be revised over the next six months. We anticipate that the holdings indicated for Belgium will be shifted to other foreign entities, given that nation's role as an international banking center. Since FY2013Since the end of the U.S. government's 2013 fiscal year on 30 September 2013, the total…
  • The Evolving Future of the S&P 500: 2014-Q3

    20 Oct 2014 | 1:34 am
    Since the S&P 500 is behaving so predictably, and because we just visited the topic on Thursday, 16 October 2014, we thought we'd take this opportunity to revisit how the stock prices of the S&P 500 behaved in the third quarter of 2014. Our first animated chart shows how stock prices behaved with respect to our standard baseline model, in which we incorporate the historic stock prices of one year earlier as the base reference points from which we project stock prices in the near term future: Since we knew coming into the quarter that our standard baseline model's projections would be skewed…
  • The Benefits of Increasing Income Inequality

    17 Oct 2014 | 1:01 am
    What if income inequality theorists got their way and stopped income inequality from ever increasing? What would be the result of that kind of achievement? We came across the results of a unique experiment that was conducted nearly 100 years ago that answers the question, where a predefined level of income inequality was strictly enforced upon a small group of individual laborers with an outcome that permanently affected not just their jobs but also a national institution. The experiment was unknowingly conducted by the professional baseball team owner Charles Comiskey, who after assembling…
  • The Cart Before the Horse

    16 Oct 2014 | 12:41 am
    This may surprise a lot of people, mainly because it stands in such contrast to the work product of their journalistic peers, but a lot of financial reporting is pretty well done. But even financial journalists don't quite get the stories they cover 100% right. We have a great example of that today, featuring some really good reporting by Michael S. Derby of the Wall Street Journal, in which he does an excellent job describing why the stock market is selling off, but ends up putting the cart before the horse. A world-wide equities sell off is driving investors to expect the Federal Reserve…
 
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    Calafia Beach Pundit

  • Robust construction and CRE conditions

    22 Oct 2014 | 11:52 am
    Surely this news is not widely appreciated:According to the American Institute of Architects (AIA), their September billings index "shows robust conditions ahead for [the] construction industry." The billings index, shown in the chart above, is registering new highs for the current business cycle. Furthermore, "the recently resurgent Institutional sector is leading to broader growth for the entire construction industry.” According to the CoStar Group, "demand [for commercial property] continues to outstrip supply across major property types, resulting in tighter vacancy rates and…
  • How China could explain the decline in gold

    21 Oct 2014 | 1:58 pm
    In January, 2013, I wrote a post titled "Developments in China explain the end of gold's rise." I speculated that China's spectacular growth over the previous two decades, which included a monster accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and a significant appreciation of the yuan, could have been the driver for the the incredible rise in gold prices. I then noted the slowing in China's accumulation of forex reserves, the slowing in Chinese economic growth, and the beginnings of stabilization of its currency, and asserted that "the boom in gold is over." Shortly thereafter gold suffered a…
  • Reading the bond market tea leaves

    20 Oct 2014 | 3:27 pm
    Nominal 10-yr Treasury yields have fallen from 2.6% in mid-September to as low as 1.9% last week, followed by a rise to today's 2.2%. The decline mainly reflects a moderation of inflation expectations which in turn are being driven by a 20+% decline in oil prices since June. Real yields on 5-yr TIPS—which I believe closely track the market's real GDP expectations—have gyrated in the past month or so because the bond market has been worried about the "contagion" risk that the U.S. economy faces because of slower growth in the Eurozone and Asian economies, and a "Black Swan" outbreak of…
  • Still no signs of deflation

    16 Oct 2014 | 9:47 am
    Fears of deflation are all the rage these days. Phrases like this can be found everywhere: Europe is "perilously close" to deflation, major economies face the "specter" of deflation, Eurozone "deflation threat" looms, the clear and present "danger" of deflation, the risk of deflation fuels global fears, etc.It's completely overblown. Deflation is not like a black hole that sucks economies in once they cross the zero price change event horizon. Just because Europe's CPI increase is approaching zero doesn't mean the Eurozone economy is going to collapse or that something urgent needs to be…
  • Industrial production is quite strong

    16 Oct 2014 | 9:19 am
    September gains in U.S. industrial production far surpassed expectations (+1.0% vs. +0.4%). Gains in the past year are well over 4%, which marks an acceleration relative to the first three years of the current growth cycle, when gains averaged about 3% per year. This stands in stark contrast to the emerging weakness in the Eurozone economy, where industrial production is flat to down a bit over the past year. The U.S. economy is emerging as an island of strength in a sea of slowing growth. Markets worry that the rest of the world will drag the U.S. down, but it doesn't have to be that…
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    Donald Marron

  • A “Normal” Budget Isn’t Really Normal

    Donald
    20 Oct 2014 | 7:15 am
    Treasury closed the financial books on fiscal 2014 last week. As my colleague Howard Gleckman noted, the top line figures all came in close to their 40-year averages. The $483 billion deficit was about 2.8 percent of gross domestic product, for example, slightly below the 3.2 percent average of the past four decades. Tax revenues clocked in at 17.5 percent of GDP, a smidgen above their 17.3 percent 40-year average. And spending was 20.3 percent, a bit below its 20.5 percent average. Taxes, spending, and deficits thus appear to be back to “normal.” If anything, fiscal policy in 2014 was…
  • The $300 Billion Question: How Should Congress Budget for Federal Lending Programs?

    Donald
    29 Sep 2014 | 9:48 am
    Lending programs create special challenges for federal budgeting. So special, in fact, that the Congressional Budget Office estimates their budget effects two different ways. According to official budget rules, taxpayers will earn more than $200 billion over the next decade from new student loans, mortgage guarantees, and the Export-Import Bank. According to an alternative that CBO favors, taxpayers will lose more than $100 billion. Those competing estimates pose a $300 billion question: Which budgeting approach is best? As I document in a new report and policy brief, the answer is neither…
  • Four Myths about Entrepreneurship

    Donald
    17 Sep 2014 | 1:40 pm
    Dane Stangler at the Kauffman Foundation debunks four myths about entrepreneurship: Spoiler: 20-somethings make headlines, but founders in their 30s and 40s are more important. (Disclosure: The Kauffman Foundation funds some of my research at the Urban Institute.)
  • Does the Export-Import Bank Make or Lose Money?

    Donald
    10 Sep 2014 | 9:00 am
    Suppose your aunt decides to start a business making pizza ovens. She will design and build the ovens, and her daughter will manage operations. A bank is ready to lend her $100,000 to get started, but it wants someone to co-sign and be on the hook if she misses any payments. She offers to pay you $6,000 to do so. A business-savvy friend tells you that missed payments on such a loan average $2,000, usually less, occasionally much more. He also reports that $7,000 is the going rate for co-signing. Those insights spark lively family debate. Your aunt believes her proposal is a no-brainer. She…
  • How Economic Insights Shaped the Web Economy

    Donald
    30 Aug 2014 | 2:22 am
    In this TEDx talk, Bob Litan shows how economic insights shaped the web economy, from dating to search to travel to logistics.
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    Supply and Demand (in that order)

  • Radio interview with Kudlow and Batchelor

    15 Oct 2014 | 7:30 am
    Jumps to 19:46Download
  • How Obamacare Begets Gender Inequality

    7 Oct 2014 | 9:48 am
    How Obamacare Begets Gender InequalityBy Casey MulliganIn the past four decades, millions of American women have entered the workforce, sought out new occupations, and embarked on professional careers. In fact, by 2013, just 18 percent of working women worked only part time. This marks a sharp reversal of conditions in 1975, when men did the vast majority of full-time work, while women were less likely to be employed at all and nearly a quarter worked 20-hours per week or less.These gains in gender equality are threatened by two provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) ironically…
  • Labor Market Jumps in September

    3 Oct 2014 | 8:33 am
    The labor market really jumped in September. Part of this is rounding error on weekly hours, which went to 34.6 after six consecutive months at 34.5 (the jump from 34.4 to 34.5 can be seen by comparing January and March of this year. In Jan of this year average weekly hours jumped from 34.3 to 34.4). But it is still surprising because the jump is more than twice the amount created by rounding error.
  • Real PCE in August

    29 Sep 2014 | 6:07 am
    Real personal consumption expenditures per capita grew a lot from July to August (0.5 percent in one month; annualized that's 5.7 percent). The year-over-year growth is 1.9 percent; about a quarter of that growth occurred in one month. Over the prior three years, real PCE per capita had been growing 1.3 percent per year.
  • The Myth of Obamacare's Affordability

    8 Sep 2014 | 9:38 am
    Copyright, Dow Jones & CompanyWhether the Affordable Care Act lives up to its name depends on how, or whether, you consider its consequences for the wider economy.Millions of people pay a significant portion of their income for health insurance so they and their families can get good health care when they need it. The magnitude of their sacrifices demonstrates the importance that people ascribe to health care.The Affordable Care Act attempts to help low- and middle-income families avoid some of the tough sacrifices that would be necessary to purchase health insurance without assistance. But…
 
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Sailing between the Scylla of hyping of sexy research and the Charybdis of reflexive skepticism

    Andrew
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:56 am
    Recently I had a disagreement with Larry Bartels which I think is worth sharing with you. Larry and I took opposite positions on the hot topic of science criticism. To put things in a positive way, Larry was writing about some interesting recent research which I then constructively criticized. To be more negative, Larry was hyping some sexy research and I was engaging in mindless criticism. The balance between promotion and criticism is always worth discussing, but particularly so in this case because of two factors: 1. The research in question is on the borderline. The conclusions in…
  • Try a spaghetti plot

    Andrew
    21 Oct 2014 | 6:18 am
    Joe Simmons writes: I asked MTurk NFL fans to consider an NFL game in which the favorite was expected to beat the underdog by 7 points in a full-length game. I elicited their beliefs about sample size in a few different ways (materials .pdf; data .xls). Some were asked to give the probability that the better team would be winning, losing, or tied after 1, 2, 3, and 4 quarters. If you look at the average win probabilities, their judgments look smart. But this graph is super misleading, because the fact that the average prediction is wise masks the fact that the average person is not. Of the…
  • Three ways to present a probability forecast, and I only like one of them

    Andrew
    20 Oct 2014 | 7:12 am
    To the nearest 10%: To the nearest 1%: To the nearest 0.1%: I think the National Weather Service knows what they’re doing on this one. The post Three ways to present a probability forecast, and I only like one of them appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • On deck this week

    Andrew
    20 Oct 2014 | 6:00 am
    Mon: Three ways to present a probability forecast, and I only like one of them Tues: Try a spaghetti plot Wed: I ain’t got no watch and you keep asking me what time it is Thurs: Some questions from our Ph.D. statistics qualifying exam Fri: Solution to the helicopter design problem Sat: Solution to the problem on the distribution of p-values Sun: Solution to the sample-allocation problem The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • “Your Paper Makes SSRN Top Ten List”

    Andrew
    19 Oct 2014 | 6:54 am
    I received the following email from the Social Science Research Network, which is a (legitimate) preprint server for research papers: Dear Andrew Gelman: Your paper, “WHY HIGH-ORDER POLYNOMIALS SHOULD NOT BE USED IN REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY DESIGNS”, was recently listed on SSRN’s Top Ten download list for: PSN: Econometrics, Polimetrics, & Statistics (Topic) and Political Methods: Quantitative Methods eJournal. As of 02 September 2014, your paper has been downloaded 17 times. You may view the abstract and download statistics at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2486395. Top Ten…
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    Capital Chronicle

  • World Economic Outlook, 2014: forecasting made easy

    9 Oct 2014 | 5:57 am
    Three econometricians are out hunting. They spot a stag. Given this is a story about economists let us assume it is a deaf stag.The first econometrician aims, fires but misses to the left by a metre. The second econometrician takes aim, fires and also misses - but by a metre to the right. The third econometrician does not take aim or fire. Exultant, he cries out "Nailed it!"Visually this joke appears thus: Source: Page 26, World Economic Outlook, Oct 2014 (IMF)  
  • Uncertainty vs risk: S&P500 volatility since 1929

    7 Jul 2014 | 1:49 pm
    This from Goldman Sachs' Top of Mind Global Macro Research report of 25 Jun, 2014:Although the detail within the GS report is balanced this shorter and sharper piece from the FT's Underground Economist distills the debate with no great loss of message.(And that Professor Bloom paper the FT cites is here)
  • Curse of Reinhart & Rogoff strikes Piketty

    23 May 2014 | 11:28 pm
    If only Mr. Rogoff had waited a couple of weeks before reviewing Mr. Piketty's opus here the result might have been far more entertaining (as well as thought-provoking).Why? Mr. Piketty got the R&R treatment from the FT this week (right here, you may have to register to see). Some of the criticism is about data sources; some is about data adjustments; and some concerns data selection. But the underlying question is about the combination of these and their subsequent interpretation.The New York Times captures that last point when commenting on this graphic from the FT piece written by…
  • What do you have to do to lose your US banking license?

    1 May 2014 | 5:04 am
    More anti-bank developments reported here by Dealbook featuring, amongst others, Preet Bharara the US attorney in Manhattan. It was Bharara who took down Galleon and saw that Rajaratnam got jail time. After that conviction Bharara said:“The message today is clear — there are rules and there are laws, and they apply to everyone, no matter who you are or how much money you have.” Now he (and others) are seeking to walk the talk by bringing criminal charges against two foreign banks operating in the US.Tough ask? Law breaking and deception by banks have only been met to date with…
  • When PIIGS and BRICS aren't enough

    2 Apr 2014 | 6:11 am
    Yes, the metaphoric jargon jungle has expanded to include EAGLES and Nests according to BBVA research. Nice graphics tho:The full Emerging And Growth Leading Economies report with its fearless 10 year forecasts can be enjoyed here.
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    TheMoneyIllusion

  • Ben Southwood finds lots of evidence for (market) monetarism

    ssumner
    22 Oct 2014 | 3:15 am
    Ben Southwood of the Adam Smith Institute has several recent blog posts that are well worth reading. When the Bank moves its key policy rate, commentators talk about it hiking or cutting interest rates; on top of this, we’ve seen extremely low effective interest rates in the marketplace; together this makes it reasonable to believe that the central bank is the cause of these low effective rates. There are lots of reasons to doubt this claim. In a previous post I pointed out that the spreads between Bank Rate and market rates seem to be narrow and fairly consistent—until they’re not.
  • Quick update on NGDP futures

    ssumner
    21 Oct 2014 | 7:08 am
    No one told me it was going to be hard to give away money!  Seriously, there are a few more complications than I anticipated, and I am now waiting for specific instructions from iPredict and Hypermind about how to proceed.  But it will get worked out. Meanwhile the early Hypermind Q3 futures contract, with 100 euros in prize money, has now been upgraded to a combined Q3 and Q4 with 1000 euros in prize money. So it just became much more attractive.  Recall that at Hypermind, traders do not have to put up their own money–it’s not “gambling.”  But you do need to…
  • Tyler Cowen on exports

    ssumner
    20 Oct 2014 | 7:16 am
    Tyler Cowen has a wonderful new post pointing out that all countries can increase their exports at the same time, and this may boost global output.  I’m going to try to make it even wonderfuler (is that a German word?) [Update: When I say "exports" I mean "exports", not "exports minus imports" (a category no one should pay any attention to.)] Let’s avoid reasoning from an export change, and ask why exports might increase: 1.  Supply-side reforms that boost the efficiency of the export sector, perhaps by removing tax/regulatory barriers. 2.  Monetary stimulus aimed at currency…
  • A nod toward market monetarism at the FT?

    ssumner
    18 Oct 2014 | 12:51 pm
    I suppose I sometimes read too much into things, but I couldn’t help thinking that the conclusion of a recent Financial Times editorial had a sort of market monetarist flavor.  See what you think: The other positive is the quick reaction from central bankers to the market alarm. James Bullard and Andrew Haldane, who vote on interest rate in the US and UK respectively, have spoken of their concern about increasing downside risks to growth. Their hints that interest rate rises have been pushed into the future met with a bullish reaction. For all the controversy about how quantitative…
  • The Fed finally says “enough”

    ssumner
    17 Oct 2014 | 7:25 am
    It would be interesting to know what Fed people like Bernanke and Yellen privately think of the ECB.  Here’s an interesting story on Draghi (who is actually one of the more competent people over there): Europe is leading a rout that has wiped more than $5.5 trillion from the value of equities worldwide. While data on everything from industrial production in Germany to manufacturing in the U.K. has contributed to the gloom, sentiment began souring on Oct. 2, when European Central Bank President Mario Draghi stopped short of spelling out how many assets the ECB might buy to head…
 
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    Jesse's Café Américain

  • Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Consolidation Day and Tragedy In Canada

    22 Oct 2014 | 1:25 pm
    "Anger is the enemy of non-violence, and pride is a monster that swallows it up." Mahatma Gandhi There was a terrible shooting of some innocent people near the Parliament in Ottawa today. Such actions are never justified, and are simply murder, no matter what rationales some may wish to put forward. That these types of things may be used to promote oppressive responses by some is simply a
  • SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Pause, Consolidation, and Infamy

    22 Oct 2014 | 1:18 pm
    "In the last days, perilous times shall come. For men shall be lovers of their own selves, covetous, boasters, traitors, heady, high-minded having a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof. Evil men and seducers shall wax worse and worse, deceiving and being deceived." John Henry Newman And high amongst those self deceptions is the arrogance to presume that the killing of innocents is
  • Reprise: Who Was 'the Frenchman Who Wept' For HIs Country?

    21 Oct 2014 | 3:22 pm
    Here is an iconic photograph that I have seen in any number of documentaries, generally identified as a Frenchman who weeps for his city as the Nazis march into Paris. I have always been curious about this photo. I wondered where it came from and who this person was.  It has a certain tragic dignity about
  • Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Slowly Higher, More Gold Withdrawals

    21 Oct 2014 | 1:19 pm
    The precious metals managed to drift higher, with some capping action in the late afternoon. There was a rumour this morning that the ECB would start buying corporate debt at the end of this year, and visions of QE European Style had stocks zooming, and the precious metals were in rally mode, even that poor old mule silver. But capping came into play, as stocks continued on their short
  • SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Draghi Racing To Da Moon

    21 Oct 2014 | 1:10 pm
    Another central bank rumour managed to light a fire under stocks, and the hedge funds ran with it. The rumour this morning, following on Bullard's statement on possibly continuing QE, was that Mario Draghi's European Central Bank might start buying corporate debt as soon as December of this year. And there they go! Existing home sales came in a little better than expected, but pointing to
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    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • Persuasion with statistics

    chris dillow
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:39 am
    Mark Thoma's point that apparently strong econometric results are often the product of specification mining prompts Lars Syll to remind us that eminent economists have long been wary of what econometrics can achieve. I doubt if many people have ever thought "Crikey, the t stats are high here. That means I must abandon my long-held beliefs about an important matter." More likely, the reaction is to recall Dave Giles' commandments nine and 10. (Apparently?) impressive econometric findings might be good enough to get you published. But there's a big difference between being…
  • Facts, & the Establishment

    chris dillow
    21 Oct 2014 | 6:35 am
    Jeremy Duns accuses Owen Jones of some factual errors. Insofar as he's right, this actually strengthen the substance of Owen's big contention - that the Establishment is a self-regarding clique. Owen's errors are not decisive ones; the claims he has got wrong are not load-bearing ones. Nobody is going to think "So, the DESO doesn't exist any more. This shows that there's no such thing as crony capitalism." In pointing out his errors, Jeremy is not so much defending the Establishment as attacking Owen. Let's grant, for the sake of argument, that he's right…
  • Social mobility in a dystopia

    chris dillow
    20 Oct 2014 | 6:43 am
    I have long been sceptical of the feasibility and desireability of social mobility. Today's report by the Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission, though, makes me wonder: is social mobility an out-dated idea? To see my point, imagine two different societies. One is a bourgeois society, comprising a mass affluent middle class alongside some poverty. The other is a winner-take-all society in which the 1% enjoy huge incomes whilst the 99% just get by. Now, the Milburn Commission's recommendations make sense for a bourgeois society. Improving the educational opportunities of the…
  • Diversity trumps ability

    chris dillow
    17 Oct 2014 | 5:53 am
    Jon Lansman wants Labour MPs to be "ordinary people who have held normal jobs" rather than career politicians. There's a powerful piece of thinking on his side - the diversity trumps ability theorem. This is an extension of James Surowiecki's wisdom of crowds theory, but it has been mathematically formalized by Lu Hong and Scott Page, who summarise it thus: When selecting a problem-solving team from a diverse population of intelligent agents, a team of randomly selected agents outperforms a team comprised of the best-performing agents. I'll spare you the maths, but give…
  • Why Freud's wrong

    chris dillow
    16 Oct 2014 | 1:32 am
    As Lord Freud's more illustrious ancestor pointed out, our unguarded comments can sometimes reveal our true sentiments. It's for this reason that his claim that some disabled people are "not worth the full [minimum] wage" has outraged so many. At best, the statement is careless. Sam is entirely correct to say that there is a huge distinction between people's moral worth and the value of their labour; the existence of bankers suffices to prove this. There are, though, two issues here. First, some of our language and hence thought blurs what should be a considerable…
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    David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

  • Bank may eventually rue leaving rates low for too long

    David Smith
    19 Oct 2014 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Even before the stock market had an attack of the vapours, other factors — a sharp fall in Britain’s inflation rate, renewed weakness in the eurozone,...
  • Time to join the dots on infrastructure spending

    David Smith
    12 Oct 2014 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. How do we build the infrastructure the economy is crying out for and the new housing a growing population sorely needs? Through the haze of the...
  • Don't forget the budget deficit's ugly sister

    David Smith
    5 Oct 2014 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. We have had the two main party conferences and the big revisions to Britain’s economic numbers. We now know the economy’s pre-crisis peak was exceeded in...
  • IEA's shadow MPC votes 6-3 for half-point rate hike

    David Smith
    5 Oct 2014 | 1:59 am
    In its email poll closing Friday 3rd October, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) recommended by six votes to three that Bank Rate should be raised on October 9th, including five votes for a rise...
  • Osborne's deficit plan gets lost in the statistical fog

    David Smith
    28 Sep 2014 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Maybe Ed Miliband should have talked about the budget deficit, and not just for the obvious reasons. Had the Labour leader done so he could have...
 
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    Top Gun Financial Planning

  • Pressure Point

    Greg Feirman
    13 Oct 2014 | 4:59 pm
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. Last Thursday and Friday were the worst two days for the markets since February.  The S&P is testing its 200 day moving average (DMA) for the first time in 2 years. Real fear has entered the market for the first time in quite a while.  5 1/2 years into the bull market investors are worried: Is this just a…
  • Riding The Bull

    Greg Feirman
    3 Sep 2014 | 7:47 am
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. Those of you who have followed me over the years know that I was slow to warm to this bull market.  However, in the last year I have evolved and come to embrace it.  I stopped trying to short it (see “The Loser’s Strategy”, August 4, 2013) and decided to invest more in line with what is…
  • Interview With Mint.com

    Greg Feirman
    5 Aug 2014 | 7:10 am
    Check out this short interview I did with Mint.com.  
  • It’s A Bull Market

    Greg Feirman
    16 Jul 2014 | 4:12 am
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. The S&P is up another 1% since I last checked in in early June (“That 2013 Feeling”, June 9) and what I said then still applies.  The path of least resistance continues to be higher. The stock market sold off yesterday on the following comments by Fed Chair Janet Yellen: Valuation metrics in…
  • That 2013 Feeling

    Greg Feirman
    8 Jun 2014 | 7:41 pm
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. Only a few weeks ago the S&P seemed stuck below 1900 and market sentiment had turned bearish.  Star hedge fund manager David Tepper punctuated the bearishness when he told an audience full of investors at the SALT Conference in Las Vegas “Don’t be too frickin’ long”. A few weeks…
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    Project Syndicate RSS-Feed

  • The TPP’s Missing Ingredient

    Simon Johnson
    22 Oct 2014 | 11:50 am
    The typical approach when seeking to finalize an agreement aimed at reducing trade barriers is to ask for less, not more, from those on the other side of the table. But the Trans-Pacific Partnership is different: It will work only if the US insists that participating countries do not engage in currency manipulation.
  • China’s Hong Kong Follies

    Sin-ming Shaw
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:30 am
    The massive protests that have roiled Hong Kong in recent weeks are ostensibly demands for more democracy. But they actually reflect frustration among a population that has been poorly governed by a succession of leaders picked by China’s central government more for their loyalty than their competence.
  • Europe’s Brush with Debt

    Hans-Werner Sinn
    22 Oct 2014 | 2:30 am
    French Prime Minister Manuel Valls and his Italian counterpart, Matteo Renzi, refuse to comply with the eurozone's 2012 fiscal compact; instead, they intend to run up fresh debts. Their stance highlights a fundamental flaw in the European Monetary Union’s structure – one that Europe’s leaders must address before it is too late.
  • China’s Great Leap Backward

    Xia Yeliang
    22 Oct 2014 | 2:00 am
    This week, Chinese Communist Party leaders are meeting in Beijing for a plenary session centered on one topic: the rule of law. But the crackdown on freedom of speech, assembly, association, and movement now unfolding in China casts doubt on the credibility of the government's commitment to political modernization.
  • Ukraine’s Vote, Russia’s Fate

    Carl Bildt
    21 Oct 2014 | 1:17 pm
    When Ukraine’s voters go to the polls on October 26, not only the fate of their country will be at stake; so will the future of a significant part of Europe. To put it simply: the future of Ukraine will decide the future of Russia, and the future of Russia will have a substantial impact on the future of Europe.
 
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    Benzinga Feeds

  • These 5 Cars Have The Highest Fuel Economy

    Josh Wolonick
    22 Oct 2014 | 11:15 am
    Earlier this year, researchers at the University of Michigan found that the average fuel economy of new, light vehicles (a designation that includes cars, SUVs, vans and pickup trucks) had reached 25.4 miles per gallon, as compared to 20.8 mpg in 2007.
  • These 5 Cars Have The Lowest Fuel Economy

    Josh Wolonick
    22 Oct 2014 | 11:13 am
    Earlier this April, researchers at the University of Michigan found that the average fuel economy of new, light vehicles (a designation that includes cars, SUVs, vans, and pickup trucks) had reached 25.4 miles per gallon, as compared to 20.8 mpg in 2007.
  • The Case For: The Bulls Keeping Up The Pressure

    Dave Moenning
    22 Oct 2014 | 11:11 am
    The bulls (or perhaps more accurately, the bull algos) put on quite a show again on Tuesday. For the fourth day in a row, stocks rocketed higher and the S&P 500 finished with the best one-day gain in more than a year. Not bad for a market that had been left for dead four days ago, right?
  • Time For Investors To Buy The Dip?

    Dave Moenning
    21 Oct 2014 | 8:57 am
    Sometimes it can be advantageous to step back from the blinking screens and the wild intraday swings in order to try and get a feel for the bigger picture.
  • Benzinga Weekly Preview: Earnings Season Is In Full Swing

    Laura Brodbeck
    19 Oct 2014 | 7:19 am
    Earnings season will be in full swing next week, but economic data will likely overshadow big companies’ earnings as investors look for any indication that the global economy is on the road to repair. Plunging oil prices and disappointing data have created some worry around Wall Street, something next week’s economic data may fuel.
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    OilPrice.com Daily News Update

  • Ukraine-Russia Gas Deal Still Possible Despite Setback

    22 Oct 2014 | 3:35 pm
    Negotiations over a natural gas deal between Ukraine and Russia have faltered since the spring, but the standoff has taken on a new urgency as winter approaches.Following the overthrow of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich in February, Russia altered the terms by which it sells natural gas to Ukraine. Along with Yanukovich, favorable pricing went away. In April, Russia nearly doubled the sale price of natural gas to Ukraine, from $268.50 per thousand cubic meters to $485.50. This was a price that the Ukrainian government said it could not meet.…Read more...
  • Big Oil And Renewables: Not So Strange Bedfellows

    22 Oct 2014 | 3:28 pm
    In most conversations about energy, the topic of Big Oil versus renewables usually becomes a zero-sum game. Renewable advocates accuse Big Oil of conspiring to shut out wind, solar and other alt-energy sources in the pursuit of greater profits driven by fossil fuels. Big Oil defenders say that renewables, while an important adjunct, can never meet the global demand for energy provided by traditional sources: coal, oil and gas. In fact, the big oil companies have never shunned renewable energy in their mix of business operations, and only recently…Read more...
  • Russia Opens Criminal Probe Into Plane Crash Death Of Total CEO

    22 Oct 2014 | 3:19 pm
    Russia’s chief investigative panel has opened a criminal probe into the Oct. 20 accident at Moscow’s Vnukovo International Airport that killed Christophe de Margerie, the CEO of the French multinational oil company Total, saying the field’s management was negligent and that the snowplow driver who apparently caused the crash was drunk.The accident occurred when de Margerie’s private jet struck the plow during its takeoff attempt, burst into flames and crashed on the runway, killing de Margerie and the plane’s three…Read more...
  • Oil Shocks And The Global Economy

    22 Oct 2014 | 3:11 pm
    Here I re-tread a well-trodden path, but with recent events in the oil market I thought a brief recap might be timely.I begin with a photographic illustration of a typical US demand response to the tripling of oil prices that occurred during the first “oil shock” in 1974: Demand response after a tripling of oil price, USA, 1974Those long lines of gas-guzzlers were indeed a demand response, but not to the oil price increase. They were a reaction to the nationwide shortage of gasoline caused by the oil embargo that accompanied it.…Read more...
  • Oil Market Complexity Means Prices Make The Story

    22 Oct 2014 | 2:49 pm
    When the world's business editors sent their reporters canvassing to find out what is behind the recent plunge in the world oil price, they were doing what they do almost every day for every type of market: stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities and real estate.In financial journalism more often it's the price that makes the story rather than the story that makes the price. If a story is about something very surprising which almost no one can know in advance--a real scoop--say, an unexpected outcome in a major court case affecting a company's most…Read more...
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    zentrader.ca

  • Markets Have Worked Of Bearish Momentum

    jeff pierce
    21 Oct 2014 | 10:16 pm
    By Jeff Pierce Now that the markets appear to have stabilized it’s OK to jump back in long trades…right? I believe the correct answer to be NO, based on that clear lack of leadership, declining volume on rallies, and the fact my timing signals and long term trend remain firmly down. Add on the fact that many weekly charts are starting to roll over on past leaders and it looks less and less likely that the Fed can print their way out of this one. I’m no permabear but I also don’t like how momentum stocks reacted over the last 3-4 weeks and without any new leadership…
  • Crude Has Likely Hit Rock Bottom

    Jeff Pierce
    20 Oct 2014 | 9:07 pm
    By Poly This is an excerpt from this week’s premium update from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly. Now offering monthly & quarterly subscriptions with 30 day refund. Promo code ZEN saves 10%. In the past, we’ve discussed at length the structural problems facing Crude. So the pressure the energy markets are under, both from the demand and supply sides, should come as no surprise. This double whammy to the Crude market is not likely to be resolved…
  • Hitchhiker’s Guide To Bear Markets

    chris
    19 Oct 2014 | 5:00 am
    By Chris Ebert As the Bull market sent stock prices higher and higher over the past several years, readers here were provided with a unique perspective – a perspective that ignores the news of the day, ignores corporate fundamentals, and even ignores most common forms of technical analysis. This perspective has managed to guide traders through the twists and turns of the Bull market, helping them to make rational trading decisions, avoiding unnecessary fear yet anticipating fear when fear is healthy, thus in better positions to reap profits in the stock market. Now that the Bull market…
  • Stock Market Bull Run Isn’t Done Until…

    chris
    13 Oct 2014 | 5:00 am
    By Chris Ebert This is either the beginning of the end for the recent 3-year uninterrupted run for the Bull Market and stock prices are headed much much lower;  or it’s the end of a healthy Bull-market correction and stock prices are in a position to surpass their recent all-time highs within a few short weeks. The two scenarios are polar opposites. Now may be a good time for a trader to consider using option performance as an indicator of which path the stock market is on at the moment. Everyone can use options, even folks that don’t trade options, if for nothing other than a…
  • Plenty Of Reasons To Explain Recent Selling

    Jeff Pierce
    12 Oct 2014 | 4:06 pm
    By Poly This is an excerpt from this weekend’s premium update from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly. Now offering monthly & quarterly subscriptions with 30 day refund. Promo code ZEN saves 10%. The equity markets are finally seeing action that has even the most hardened bulls running scared. In the past, I’ve been quick to dismiss selling periods – Cycle Lows – as natural regression-to-the-mean events. In a bull market, an oscillating Cycle…
 
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    MartinKronicle - Michael Martin

  • Managing the Disney Call option Position – Part 2

    Michael Martin
    25 Sep 2014 | 12:36 am
    This lesson discusses a few of the choices you could make if you are still Long the DIS JAN15 70 Calls. If you missed that video, you can see it below or click here to see the original post from October 2013. Similar Posts: How Gold Is Being Traded Now One Way To Make More $$$ in 2010: Follow-Up Better The Touch, The Feel of Trading Cotton Spreads How To Short Sell Gold $GC_F UK Election Aftermath GBP FXB
  • The Most Powerful Trader in the World

    Michael Martin
    30 Jan 2014 | 11:28 am
    Once you’ve mastered putting in protective stops, you’ll feel empowered. Why? Because at that point you are emotionally balanced and are WILLING to transfer the risk to someone else and exit with a small loss. You have emotional and financial understanding that trading is a process and that any one trade is meaningless over 1,000s of trades. At that point you have personal power in that trading is just one part of your day and your life is abundant. And you don’t need to tell anyone about your trading. You’re in love with your process – be it mechanical or…
  • Anatomy of a Trader’s Mindset

    Michael Martin
    22 Jan 2014 | 8:54 am
    I had a great chat with one of my students last week and something hit me from our conversation. Like me (and probably you) he’s an avid reader. It was such a great conversation, I came away with something… We were talking about the most recent assignment that he was working on and he got WAAAAY off the subject by telling me all the fundamentals of the company etc “In 2002, they listed on the FTSE and their main product was…” and I was like “Whoa, what the heck does 2002 have to do with today and trading in the ever-evolving moment of NOW in January…
  • Keep Calm and Enter Your Stops

    Michael Martin
    14 Jan 2014 | 1:14 am
    The Sugar trade I mentioned a few weeks ago that almost tripled one of my accounts had a lot of things going on inside it. But making the money was a symptom of several factors, some of which might surprise you. Of course, it goes without saying that I was powerless over the move in Sugar itself, so the best thing I could have done is what I did do: add some risk to my account and enter a protective stop to knock me out if I was wrong. I should also add that I had no clue the trade would develop even remotely the way it did when it started out. Technology-wise, I used EOD data from my broker…
  • Pro Traders Have a Daily Trading Plan

    Michael Martin
    4 Jan 2014 | 12:19 am
    Emotional Systems RuleSimilar Posts: SEC Short Selling Rule More Conflict Within SEC On Short Selling Rule The Better Part of Valor — and Your Trading System — is Discretion This Emotional Life tonight on PBS One Man’s Trash Is Another Man’s Treasure Embed This Image On Your Site (copy code below): Courtesy of: MartinKronicle
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    NEW ECONOMY

  • LA School District Uses Its Spending Power to Support Local Farms, Workers’ Rights, and Kids’ Nutrition

    J. Mijin Cha
    17 Oct 2014 | 4:05 pm
    This article is presented as part of New Economy Week, five days of conversation around building an economy that works for everyone. Today’s theme isThe New Economy Is Close to Home Photo by Brittany Randolph / Flickr. We face two equally urgent and significant crises: rising inequality and climate change. Rising inequality is not only morally unacceptable; it also hinders economic growth. Climate change is already impacting every part of the country, with low-income communities and communities of color getting hit first and worst. Fighting these two battles will require a fundamental…
  • Beating Climate Change by Retooling the Economy—The Story Begins in Navajo Country

    Mary Hansen
    17 Oct 2014 | 3:15 pm
    Photo by Scott* / Flickr. “I grew up without running water,” Nichole Alex, a young woman from Dilkon, Ariz., says in a video released by the activist group Black Mesa Water Coalition. Alex grew up on the Navajo reservation in the rural Black Mesa region of Arizona, where for decades a controversial coal mine emptied the region’s aquifer, leaving local wells dry. Many climate justice activists are refusing to be limited by the “jobs or the environment” dichotomy. “I grew up traveling 20 miles to gather water,” Alex continues. “That’s not fair, that my community is being…
  • After Years Without a Grocery Store, Greensboro Neighbors Are Building One Themselves—And They’ll Own It

    Dave Reed
    17 Oct 2014 | 12:10 pm
    This article is presented as part of New Economy Week, five days of conversation around building an economy that works for everyone. Today’s theme isThe New Economy Is Close to Home A still from a video in which residents of northeast Greensboro speak about their support for the Renaissance Food Co-op. In the late 1990s, the local Winn Dixie that had served the neighborhoods around Philips Avenue for many years closed down. Winn Dixie and other large grocery chains had divided up market territory, resulting in the closing of some stores despite their profitability. The loss of this Winn…
  • Day 5 of New Economy Week: The New Economy Is Close to Home

    Kayla Schultz
    17 Oct 2014 | 12:10 pm
    This article was produced in partnership with the New Economy Coalition as part of the 2014 New Economy Week. Each day this week, YES! will publish articles responding to different topic prompts. Click here for more info. Boxes of jade beans are ready to be auctioned off at the Chesterhill Produce Auction in Chesterhill, Ohio, on Thursday, October 24, 2013. Photo by Brooke Herbert Hayes. Prompt 5: The New Economy is close to home. Our current economy is undermining our aspirations for a democratic society and it seems unlikely that national governments are going to turn it around any time…
  • Day 4 of New Economy Week: Combating Climate Change Without Leaving Anyone Behind

    Kayla Schultz
    16 Oct 2014 | 12:15 pm
    This project was produced in partnership with the New Economy Coalition as part of the 2014 New Economy Week. Each day this week, YES! will publish articles responding to different topic prompts. Click here for more info. Highlander Center staff and Appalachian Transition Fellows don helmets in preparation for a trip into a mine at the Coal Mine Museum in Benham, Ky. Photo by Catherine Moore. Prompt 4: Combating climate change without leaving anyone behind. Powerful interests divide communities by presenting a false choice between good jobs and a healthy environment. But the new economy…
 
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    Central Bank News

  • Canada maintains rate on balanced risks to inflation

    centralbanknews.info
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:11 am
        Canada's central bank maintained its benchmark target for the overnight rate at 1.0 percent, as widely expected, saying the "risks to its inflation projection are roughly balanced" while the risks to financial stability associated with household debt were edging higher.    The Bank of Canada (BOC), which has maintained its policy rate since September 2010, omitted giving financial markets and investors specific guidance about its expected future policy, a move that was expected following a speech earlier this month in which Governor Stephen Poloz said forward guidance…
  • Central Bank News Link List - Oct 22, 2014 - Carney’s BOE majority holds firm on heightened euro-area risks

    centralbanknews.info
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:28 am
    Here's today's Central Bank News' link list click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.Carney’s BOE majority holds firm on heightened euro-area risks (Bloomberg)Inflation short of goal means Fed can keep rates low (Bloomberg)European Central Bank considering buying corporate bonds (WSJ)China central bank seen playing safe as slowdown fans policy debate (Reuters)Russian central bank to…
  • Namibia holds rate but still concerned over credit growth

    centralbanknews.info
    22 Oct 2014 | 5:58 am
        Namibia's central bank maintained its repo rate at 6.0 percent to "support domestic economic activities" while it monitors the impact of the two interest rate increases in June and August.    But the Bank of Namibia, which has raised its rate by a total of 50 basis points this year, said it was still concerned over the strong growth in household credit that is largely financing the import of unproductive luxury goods, such as cars, and putting pressure on international reserves.    The central bank said credit to the private sector increased to an average…
  • Central Bank News Link List - Oct 21, 2014 - Euro drops on speculation ECB may expand stimulus

    centralbanknews.info
    21 Oct 2014 | 1:29 pm
    Here's today's Central Bank News' link list click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.Euro drops on speculation ECB may expand stimulus (Bloomberg)ECB Coene: ABS, bond purchases to help bank lending channel (MNI)Deepening deflation a clear Riksbank setback, Jansson says (Bloomberg)Fed’s Tarullo: Regulators to act if firms don’t tackle bad actors (MNI)NY Fed Dudley: Banks could be…
  • Central Bank News Link List - Oct 20, 2014 - Market action reinforces need for policy patience: Fed’s Rosengren

    centralbanknews.info
    20 Oct 2014 | 7:34 am
    Here's today's Central Bank News' link list click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.Market action reinforces need for policy patience: Fed’s Rosengren (Reuters)Monetary policy must stay very accommodative-ECB’s Constancio (Reuters)Fed to end bond buys this month as planned, says Rosengren (WSJ)China central bank injects liquidity into banks: report (People’s Daily)ECB starts…
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    Business Insider

  • Royals rip Giants, pull even in baseball World Series

    Jim Slater
    22 Oct 2014 | 9:28 pm
    Kansas City (AFP) - Omar Infante smashed his first playoff home run to cap a five-run outburst, giving the Kansas City Royals a 7-2 victory over San Francisco to level the 110th World Series.By breaking open a 2-2 game in the sixth inning on Wednesday, the Royals deadlocked the best-of-seven Major League Baseball final with the Giants at 1-1 as the scene shifts to San Francisco for games three through five on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.Infante's two-run blast over the left-field fence in the sixth was the 32-year-old Venezuelan second baseman's first homer after 145 playoff at bats over…
  • Marvel Had The Best Response To 'The Avengers' Sequel Trailer Leak

    Kirsten Acuna
    22 Oct 2014 | 9:02 pm
    Wednesday evening, "The Avengers: Age of Ultron" teaser trailer leaked nearly a week ahead of its scheduled Oct. 28 release on ABC. In response, Marvel tweeted a simple, brilliant quip blaming fictional terrorist organization Hydra. Dammit, Hydra. — Marvel Entertainment (@Marvel) October 22, 2014 The company then topped that response by ultimately deciding to release the trailer for all to see. That was immediately followed by the official teaser poster for the film. It's a smart move by Marvel and parent company Disney. Normally, they'll the pull a leak and call it a day. We've seen that…
  • Palestinian rams car into Jerusalem crowd, killing baby

    Daphne Rousseau
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:45 pm
    Jerusalem (AFP) - A Palestinian rammed a car into pedestrians in Jerusalem on Wednesday, killing a baby and injuring six other people in what Israeli police said was a "hit-and-run terror attack".It was the second such deadly incident in three months, prompting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to immediately order an increase in police presence across the city.The driver, identified as Abed Abdelrahman Shaludeh, a Palestinian from Silwan in east Jerusalem, died from his injuries early on Thursday, the Shaarei Tzedek hospital said.The 21-year-old had been shot and wounded as he tried…
  • Spanish town hopes for 'Game of Thrones' tourism boost

    Daniel Silva
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:22 pm
    Madrid (AFP) - Fans of the "Game of Thrones" fantasy TV series are flocking to the historic Spanish town of Osuna, where part of its fifth season is being filmed, fuelling hopes the show will deliver a lasting tourism boost.The tourism information centre in the southern town has extended its hours since filming began on October 16 to deal with the influx and hotels are fully booked until the end of the month when filming ends."It's crazy. Everyone is very excited. They want to take photos with the actors, at the locations used in filming," the owner of the 30-room Hotel Esmeralda in Osuna,…
  • Thaw reveals Antarctic explorer's century-old notebook

    22 Oct 2014 | 8:07 pm
    Wellington (AFP) - A photographic notebook from Robert Scott's ill-fated Antarctic expedition has been found after a century trapped in the ice of the frozen continent, New Zealand's Antarctic Heritage Trust said.It belonged to scientist George Murray Levick and was discovered outside Scott's 1911 Terra Nova base during last year's summer ice melt.Writing in the notebook remains legible but the binding has been dissolved by years of ice and water damage, the trust's executive director Nigel Watson said."It's an exciting find. The notebook is a missing part of the official expedition record,"…
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    Business + Economy – Articles – The Conversation

  • Self-driving cars will not help the drinking driver

    Ian J. Faulks, NRMA-ACT Road Safety Trust Research Scholar, Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety (CARRS-Q) at Queensland University of Technology
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:12 pm
    Is our car culture soon to come to an end? Jes/Flickr, CC BY-SAThere is an unexpected revolution underway in road safety. True, the highly visible community-wide programs continue, but behind the scenes there are major changes underway in how safety will be managed within road transport systems. The self-driving car (or “autonomous vehicle”) has emerged with a practical suite of technologies for more efficient, safer, and eco-friendly road travel. This emergence has been rapid: for example, the Australian National Road Safety Strategy 2011-2020 did not canvas the possibility of such…
  • To G or Not to G(20): that’s the question for Indonesia's new president

    Colin Brown, Adjunct Professor, Griffith Asia Institute at Griffith University
    22 Oct 2014 | 3:42 pm
    New Indonesian president Joko Widodo's still unsure about attending the G20 Summit in Brisbane. AAP Image/Eka NickmatulhudaAustralian prime minister Tony Abbott met with newly sworn Indonesian president Joko Widodo after his inauguration in Jakarta, inviting him to attend the G20 Summit in Brisbane. But Jokowi, as the new president is popularly called, said he could not confirm his attendance yet. In the space of a week after his 20 October inauguration, Jokowi has invitations to no fewer than five summit meetings: three linked meetings in Naypidaw, Burma on 9-11 November, involving ASEAN…
  • Australia's trade negotiating strategy fundamentally flawed

    Ann Capling, Provost at Murdoch University
    22 Oct 2014 | 12:20 pm
    The Abbott governments rush to sign bilateral trade deals with countries including Japan has meant quality has been sacrificed. Alan Porritt/AAPTen years on from the Australia-US Free Trade Agreement, Australia is entering another round of negotiations towards the new and controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership. In this Free Trade Scorecard series, we review Australian trade policy over the years and where we stand today on the brink of a number of significant new trade deals. Students of international relations are often introduced to the problems involved in sustaining international…
  • Wearable technology will not bring about a health revolution

    David Glance, Director of UWA Centre for Software Practice at University of Western Australia
    22 Oct 2014 | 10:57 am
    Rumours are surfacing that Microsoft will launch its own smartwatch in the next few weeks. Given that Microsoft Windows Phone accounts for just 2.5% of the world smartphone market, the watch will work with Apple and Android devices as well as Microsoft’s own platform. What is interesting about this move is that the commentary about the device is focusing on its role in tracking heart rate rather than its other features. The focus on the health aspects of wearables is part of a general trend amongst technology journalists who predict a “coming revolution in healthcare” as a result of…
  • Thanks for the confidence, Gough

    Tim Harcourt, J.W. Nevile Fellow in Economics at UNSW Australia Business School
    21 Oct 2014 | 8:56 pm
    Before the Asian Century, it was Gough Whitlam that gave Australians the confidence to enhance their place in the world. Alan Porritt/AAP“Where were you when Gough was sacked?” This of course refers to Remembrance Day, 11 November, 1975, when the elected prime minister Gough Whitlam was sacked by Governor-General Sir John Kerr in cahoots with the leader of the Opposition, Malcolm Fraser. For Australians, it’s a bit like the question, “Where were you when Kennedy was shot?” Of course I mean US President John Fitzgerald Kennedy (JFK), when he was shot in Dallas on 22 November, 1963,…
 
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    Mindful Money » Shaun Richards

  • How the economic debate for the upcoming UK General Election is already something of a fraud

    Shaun Richards
    3 Oct 2014 | 3:22 am
    Today sees my last blog for Mindful Money and as I am in a reflective mood  I would like to take you  back to the last UK General Election and the economic debate which took place then. If we go back to April 15th 2010 I pointed out this about the standard of the economic debate. However this is an area where all three main political parties have similar flaws in their plans. If you look at the three published manifestoes there is a hole in each of them of a similar size, £30 billion. So in truth none of them are being transparent and honest in their spending pledges. So the answer to the…
  • How has the recent strength of the UK Pound affected the UK economy?

    Shaun Richards
    2 Oct 2014 | 3:10 am
    One of the themes of this blog has been the impact of the rise in the value of the UK Pound sinces its nadir in March 2013. For example it has been a major factor in the decline in the annual rate of consumer inflation in the UK which at 1.5% is below its official target. Although the picture with our past target (RPIX) is not quite so favourable as it is only on target at 2.5% but it too has declined. Indeed if we look back we see that the push above 5% on both consumer inflation measures in the autumn of 2011 was influenced and exacerbated by the around 25% fall in the value of the pound…
  • How long can France afford its economy to continue stagnating for?

    Shaun Richards
    1 Oct 2014 | 3:24 am
    One of the themes of this blog over the past couple of years has been that the economy of France is struggling and stagnating. After an initial bounce-back from the effects of the credit crunch it has in essence flat-lined since then if we take the broader picture. Indeed the last four quarterly GDP prints have gone -0.1%,0.2%,0% and 0% in the second quarter of this year. The French statistics institute is trying to put its best face on matters by calling 0% “held steady”. Also the latest report had some ominous potential news for the future if we investigate the detail. while…
  • The UK economy gets quite a boost from the official statisticians

    Shaun Richards
    30 Sep 2014 | 3:22 am
    Today is the day that we discover how much the latest changes to how we measure the output of the UK economy have boosted the level of recorded Gross Domestic Product (GDP). So I do hope that UK based readers are feeling better off already! This is because some methodological changes are being applied at the same time as the final version of the GDP numbers for the secons quarter of 2014 are released. These changes have two major categories. The first is the normal revisions to reflect the fact that products and times change over time, otherwise we would not be counting tablets and…
  • Falling UK real wages cannot be covered up with housing market subsidies forever

    Shaun Richards
    29 Sep 2014 | 3:12 am
    Tomoorow we will discover exactly how much the new “improvements” (adding drugs and prostitution) and revisions will boost the size of the UK economy. In terms of economic output we only a partial result so far where economic output in current spending terms was revised up by 6.2% for the year of 2012. However these changes cut  directly across one of the fault lines of the credit cruch era which is that the aggregate numbers in the UK have diverged substantially from the individual ones. This is why official proclamations of success and triumph echo in people’s ears in…
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    SurvivalBlog.com

  • Notes for Thursday – October 23, 2014

    Hugh James Latimer
    22 Oct 2014 | 5:27 pm
    I’ve been pleased to see such positive reviews for my latest novel, Liberators, which was just released on Tuesday. Here are some highlights from the reviews: Publishers Weekly called Liberators the “…rousing fifth after-the-apocalypse thriller [installment in the novel series]” and also mentioned that “Supporters of the ‘prepper’ movement…will lap up every detail.” One of the co-editors of Total Survivalist wrote: “My overall assessment is this book was excellent. I tried not to get into spoilers but there is a lot on bugging out by vehicle as well as…
  • Identifying and Protecting Yourself and Your Family Against Hazardous Chemical Material Incidents, by a Marine in Missouri – Part 1

    Hugh James Latimer
    22 Oct 2014 | 5:27 pm
    We live in a society that depends on hazardous materials to create the technological wonders and comforts we expect for everyday life. Whether you take your kids to a swimming pool or drink any sort of city water, you knowingly or unknowingly depend on large amounts of chlorine to ensure the water is safe. Anywhere there is a mechanic shop there are chemicals required to lubricate, clean, and repair materials; some of those chemicals are potentially dangerous or deadly. As you drive down the highway you see thousands of semi-trucks carting loads of materials that could be more deadly than a…
  • Letter: Costco Emergency Foods

    Hugh James Latimer
    22 Oct 2014 | 5:26 pm
    I know you all recommend Costco Emergency Food. I don’t know if you’ve been monitoring them, but about Tuesday they had sold out of at least three items. Just 24 hours later, it was 11 sold out. (I counted.) Now it’s almost all sets. All of the expensive sets, including the $4-5K pallets, have sold out. It’s worth noting to your readers. As they sell out, they’re initially putting “sold out” over the product, then removing it totally from the website. – P.K. Hugh Replies: Costco is a tough cookie to base buying trends on. Their purchasing model…
  • Economics and Investing:

    Hugh James Latimer
    22 Oct 2014 | 5:25 pm
    Fear of Ebola Now Creating Weakness in U.S. Stocks? o o o Permanent Damage to US Economy-Michael Snyder. – J.W. o o o Items from Mr. Econocobas: Chris Martenson- How The Federal Reserve Is Purposely Attacking Savers – This is a little slow to develop but a nonetheless a great article. Slump in Mortgage Rates Fails to Rally Home Buyers David stockman- Wall Street Is One Sick Puppy—–Thanks To Even Sicker Central Banks 19 Very Surprising Facts About The Messed Up State Of The U.S. Economy
  • Odds ‘n Sods:

    Hugh James Latimer
    22 Oct 2014 | 5:25 pm
    This gives new meaning to the term “Chicago Democratic Machine Politics”: Voting error? – MtH o o o I missed seeing this when it was first posted at The Prepper Journal: Is it Crazy to Worry About the Golden Horde? o o o As vulgar as it sounds, desperate people do desperate things. It’s something to remember as you prep: Pakistan has lots of problems. Now add cannibalism. – T.P. o o o Remember, these are the situations that “suspend” your rights: Special report: America’s perpetual state of emergency. – SMZ o o o Thoughts from Frank and…
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    Trading Heroes

  • CAD JPY Oil Correlation Explained

    Hugh Kimura
    14 Oct 2014 | 2:46 pm
    Watching crude oil prices can help you fine tune your trading in the CADJPY currency pair. This post will show you why these currencies are so highly correlated to oil and how you use this to your advantage. It is not an exact science, but if you know what to look for, there are clues. The post CAD JPY Oil Correlation Explained appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • How To Do A Metatrader Sync Between Multiple Computers

    Hugh Kimura
    7 Oct 2014 | 11:21 am
    If you use multiple computers and want your Metatrader setup to remain the same across all of them, this is the easiest method that I have discovered for doing this. This post will show you how to set it up in just a few minutes and also give you the limitations of this method. The post How To Do A Metatrader Sync Between Multiple Computers appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • How To Find Out If You Are Paying Forex Chart Tax

    Hugh Kimura
    30 Sep 2014 | 10:37 am
    There is a hidden trading tax that some traders may not notice. Many times it is small, but sometimes it can make a huge difference. Find out how to avoid paying this tax in this post. The post How To Find Out If You Are Paying Forex Chart Tax appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • The Anatomy of Going on Tilt

    Hugh Kimura
    23 Sep 2014 | 8:22 am
    I went on tilt late last year and it has taken me awhile to come back from it. This post will analyze what I did, what I should have done and how you can prevent yourself from doing the same thing. You will also be able to see my current trading results and I would love to hear about your experiences. The post The Anatomy of Going on Tilt appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • Trade Interceptor For Mac Review (September 2014 Update)

    Hugh Kimura
    16 Sep 2014 | 3:05 am
    Trade Interceptor just became a brokerage and launched new versions of their mobile app. They also launched a new version of their desktop software for the Mac. I'm particularly excited because this is the first legit charting platform for Macs. And the new TI also checks your grammar...kinda. The post Trade Interceptor For Mac Review (September 2014 Update) appeared first on Trading Heroes.
 
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    OpenMarkets

  • MARKET UPDATE: AFTERSHOCK

    OpenMarkets
    22 Oct 2014 | 2:02 pm
    A lot of the action we’ve seen in bonds and stock with price and volatility have been aftershocks from the large market move we saw last week.  Jack urges investors to keep a close eye on earnings forecasts and deflation in the commodities sector.
  • Lifting the Veil on China’s State Capitalism: Q&A with Joe Zhang

    OpenMarkets
    20 Oct 2014 | 7:30 pm
    When China built the world’s second-largest economy, it was not just an economic miracle but a political one. It did so by re-writing the rulebook on capitalism and placing the ruling Communist Party at the center of this remarkable transformation. A unique model of state-capitalism was born with the Party at the head of an elaborate apparatus of political control over vast tracts of the economy.  While flagship state-owned enterprises (SOEs) were listed in New York or London, its top executives were still appointed by and answerable to the Party in Beijing. But now as growth slows, this…
  • MONDAY OUTLOOK: ENERGY MARKETS SEE VOLATILITY

    OpenMarkets
    20 Oct 2014 | 3:28 pm
    In the midst of last week’s high volatility in equity index markets, it might have been easy to miss that energy markets, particularly crude oil, have seen a lot of volatility of their own lately.  Last Tuesday marked the highest single electronic volume day for Crude Oil options as implied volatility spiked to 35 percent.  Libyan exports increasing, a sluggish European economy, stock markets declining and no sign of OPEC cutting production have contributed to the recent activity.   But as Alan Bannister will write later this week, the increased use of electronic options in crude…
  • MARKET UPDATE: ALL ABOUT THE “E’S”

    OpenMarkets
    20 Oct 2014 | 12:44 pm
    Jack explains the three” E’s” taking place this week that will have an effect on the market: ECB, energy and earnings.
  • Market Update: Expiration Friday

    OpenMarkets
    17 Oct 2014 | 1:15 pm
      Today is expiration Friday at the end of a very volatile week.  Jack talks about the triple digit moves in the Dow Jones this week and what to look for in the coming weeks.
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    eWallstreeter

  • Inflation Deceptive, CPI 0.1\% Yet Some Items Off the Charts

    22 Oct 2014 | 3:24 pm
    The monthly Consumer Price Index increased 0.1\% for September.   CPI measures inflation, or price increases.  September shows relief at the pump while steak lovers are hurting.  Core inflation is below the Fed's target point.  Yet while the monthly inflation number seems low, the situation is actually much more of a mixed bag, in part due to the way CPI is tabulated.   Share //>
  • An Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank's Time May Have Come

    22 Oct 2014 | 12:59 pm
    asian\_infrastructure.jpg Home Page News Page Time for an Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank The proposed Asian infrastructure bank could galvanize growth in emerging Asia and boost lingering global recovery. According to Western media, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AII
  • Michigan Senate Advances Film Tax Credit Extension Bill

    22 Oct 2014 | 12:45 pm
    Michigan’s Senate approved a bill yesterday to extend the state’s film tax credit program, which was limited and reduced in 2011 and set to expire in 2017. It’s now up to the House to decide whether to proceed. From Mlive: The bill would eliminate a 2017 sunset on funding for the film credit program, revise funding caps starting in 2015 and require employer organizations providing labor to be organized under Michigan law. The state’s contribution to a film’s production and personnel ex
  • Piketty’s Wealth Tax Would Shrink the Economy by $1 Trillion

    22 Oct 2014 | 12:15 pm
    A wealth tax would not be good for the U.S. economy. In his book, Capital in the 21st Century, Thomas Piketty suggests a wealth tax to fight income inequality. In a recent report, we used our Taxes and Growth model to evaluate the impact of such a tax on the U.S. economy. Piketty suggests a couple variations on a wealth tax with different rates starting a various income levels. One suggestion would create a 1 percent tax on net wealth between 1 and 5 million euros ($1.3 to $6.5 million) and a 2
  • U.S. Oil Drillers Under Pressure from Low Oil Prices

    22 Oct 2014 | 11:58 am
    oil\_rigs.jpg Home Page News Page The Pressure is on for U.S. Oil Drillers Slumping oil prices are putting pressure on U.S. drillers. <p><font color="#222222" face="Arial, sans-serif" size="2&q
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    richardblundell.net

  • Employee engagement: where even the strongest brands like Virgin get it wrong

    Richard
    18 Oct 2014 | 9:20 pm
    In today's world of commoditised products, the human service element that provides the customer's emotional connection to a brand, has to be part of the whole package. Not ignored by the marketing team who just focus on brand assets and messaging, and not subject to additional payment.
  • Will the market price of data insight fall? The supply-demand economics of personal data

    Richard
    9 Jun 2014 | 4:09 am
    The commercial successes of the information era are those companies like Google and Facebook who have managed to monetise consumer’s personal information. These companies have not only benefited from the amount of personal data that is now available, they’ve also encouraged consumers to share more of it. Will there come a time however when the […]
  • Apple – the luxury goods company

    Richard
    31 May 2014 | 12:29 am
    Apple’s $3.2bn purchase of Dr Dre’s Beats Music could signal the start of a new strategy for Apple – the shift from a consumer electronics company, to a house of luxury brands Why buy Beats? Most of the noise in the media this week suggested that Apple had bought Beats for its music streaming service. […]
  • Retail metrics for a multi-channel world

    Richard
    12 May 2014 | 2:10 am
    We used to know what to look for when assessing the performance of a retail business: Like for like sales growth (i.e. excluding effect of opening extra selling space) Sales per square metre (or foot) of selling space Stock turns (annual value of stock sold (COGS) divided by value of stock held at a point […]
  • AO World shows a tech and retail stock bubble is forming

    Richard
    1 Mar 2014 | 11:29 pm
    AO World (Appliances Online) may be an online only retailer, but there isn't enough growth to justify a 163x price earnings multiple.
 
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    The Last Embassy

  • ACA/Obamacare: Cancellations and Confusion in Colorado

    W.E. Heasley
    22 Oct 2014 | 2:02 am
    “DENVER—The Colorado Division of Insurance announced Friday a surge in health-care policy cancellations in the wake of Obamacare, just what Democratic candidates in high-profile races didn’t need less than three weeks before Election Day. In a letter to state Senate Republicans, Colorado insurance commissioner Marguerite Salazar said that more than 22,000 Coloradans received cancellation
  • ACA/Obamacare: The Affordable Care Act and the New Economics of Part-Time Work by Casey Mulligan

    W.E. Heasley
    14 Oct 2014 | 8:24 am
    “Starting this year, the United States’ working population will face three major employment disincentives resulting from the very benefits the Affordable Care Act (ACA) provides: (1) an explicit tax on full-time work, (2) an implicit tax on full-time work for those who are ineligible for the ACA’s health insurance subsidies, and (3) an implicit tax that links the amount of available subsidies
  • ACA/Obamacare: Covered California’s No-Bid Contracts

    W.E. Heasley
    14 Oct 2014 | 2:11 am
    “California's health insurance exchange has awarded $184 million in contracts without the competitive bidding and oversight that is standard practice across state government, including deals that sent millions of dollars to a firm whose employees have long-standing ties to the agency's executive director. Covered California's no-bid contracts were for a variety of services, ranging from
  • ACA/Obamacare: Schemes Tend to be Complicated and to Become More Complicate as Time Passes

    W.E. Heasley
    11 Oct 2014 | 2:42 am
    Assume for a moment you are one of the many millions that have already procured an on-exchange health insurance policy through Healthcare.gov. Yes, assume for a moment you were one of the persistent people that had the patience to pass through seventy six web-based pages of data collection on a highly glitch prone web site and acquired a health insurance policy. One would assume you weathered
  • ACA/Obamacare: California Proposition 45

    W.E. Heasley
    9 Oct 2014 | 6:57 pm
    "Californians are split over a high-profile voter initiative that opponents say could complicate the future of President Barack Obama ’s health-care law in one of the states that has gone furthest to embrace it. Proposition 45 would grant California’s insurance commissioner new powers to veto health-insurance premium increases for individual and small-group policies, a popular sentiment in a
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    Columbia Business School: Ideas At Work RSS

  • Low Rates, Big Spending?

    15 Oct 2014 | 10:37 am
    Six years after the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve and other central banks are still looking for answers to whether the unconventional monetary policies adopted following the crisis — including lowered interest rates — have been effective in helping American households and the larger economy. The persistence of so many debt-burdened households, widespread unemployment, and relatively low economic growth has only increased the debate among economists and policymakers.
  • Do Rate Cuts Matter?

    9 Oct 2014 | 10:15 am
    New research takes on the question of how much monetary policy affects the economy.
  • Converging on Startup Success

    7 Oct 2014 | 7:07 am
    In conversation, Damon Phillips and Evan Rawley discuss why entrepreneurship resists easy study and how their research is tackling some of the biggest questions in the field.
  • In Mobile Marketing, the Value Is in the Journey, Not the Destination

    24 Sep 2014 | 11:37 am
    New research in location-based mobile marketing shows it’s not who you know or where you’re going that matters, but how you get there.
  • How Do Credit Default Swaps Affect Bond Prices?

    24 Sep 2014 | 11:33 am
    Credit default swaps may lower a firm’s borrowing costs under certain conditions, new research shows.
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    FTMDaily.com

  • Money, Marriage, and Financial Security

    Jerry Robinson
    21 Oct 2014 | 11:15 am
    On this episode, Jerry and Jennifer Robinson discuss how you can have financial peace in your marriage.Author informationJerry RobinsonPublisher at FTMDaily.comJerry Robinson is the author of... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • Making Sense of the Recent Market Turbulence

    Jay Peroni
    18 Oct 2014 | 6:00 am
    Jay Peroni, CFP, discusses how to deal with wild stock market swings and explains his unique strategy to invest in the nation of Israel.Author informationJay PeroniJay Peroni, CFP® is the Chief... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • Precious Metals Market Update – 10/15/14

    Tom Cloud
    15 Oct 2014 | 11:53 am
    Precious metals have topped the stock market so far this year.Author informationTom CloudTom Cloud is the Chairman of the Board of Turamali, Inc. and has a long and successful advisory track record... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • FTM Insider Alert: Exclusive Podcast

    Jerry Robinson
    14 Oct 2014 | 9:32 am
    Author informationJerry RobinsonPublisher at FTMDaily.comJerry Robinson is the author of Bankruptcy of Our Nation: Your Financial Survival Guide In 2010, Jerry created FTMDaily.com with a mission... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • Market Barometer Alert – 10/13/14

    Jerry Robinson
    13 Oct 2014 | 6:00 pm
    Our Market Barometer is flashing an important alert. Investors, here’s what to do now…Author informationJerry RobinsonPublisher at FTMDaily.comJerry Robinson is the author of Bankruptcy of Our... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
 
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    Exchange Rates UK - Currency News

  • Short-Term Forecast: Pound to Euro Rate Tests Resistance at 1.27 as GBP vs EUR Buying Momentum Builds

    Tom Trevorrow
    22 Oct 2014 | 12:30 pm
    The Pound Sterling dropped vs the Euro (EUR) and most of the majors yesterday as disappointing data weighed against price movement for the GBP EUR. We take a look at what economic events could affect the British Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) over the next few days and derive some forecasts for the week ahead. First, here are... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • US Dollar vs Pound, Euro & Canadian Dollar Rates Today: USD Rises as US Inflation Growth Continues

    Colin Lawrence
    22 Oct 2014 | 12:30 pm
    The US Dollar (USD) rose against a basketful of other majors including the Pound (GBP), Euro (EUR) and Canadian Dollar (CAD) after the US Consumer Price Index defied forecasts to shrink. The USD advanced as inflation remained at 1.7% in September on the year despite economists predicting a softer 1.6% figure. In September prices grew... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • EUR to GBP, USD, INR Rate Forecasts Today - ECB Speculation Weighs on Euro

    Colin Lawrence
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:30 am
    While the Euro (EUR) exchange rate has seen losses avs the US Dollar (USD) today, the single currency advanced on the Pound Sterling (GBP) and Rupee (INR) as the BoE minutes showed a vote split remains. We bring you the latest exchange rate news for the Euro and relevant short-term forecasts today: Here's a quick overview of the key... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Aus Dollar Predictions - AUD vs NZD Exchange Rate Softer but GBP, EUR and USD See Gains

    Colin Lawrence
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:30 am
    The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been trending higher against the Pound (GBP), Euro (EUR), and US Dollar (USD), whilst softening against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on Wednesday. Key Aussie data has helped the Australian Dollar to restore previously lost gains against a multitude of global exchange rates today. What are the current Aus... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Canadian Dollar FX Forecasts: CAD to INR, GBP, NZD, ZAR Exchange Rates Fall Today

    Colin Lawrence
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:30 am
    Today finds the Canadian Dollar (CAD) trending lower against the majority of exchange rate pairings, such as vs the Euro (EUR), US Dollar (USD), NZ Dollar (NZD), Indian Rupee (INR) and Rand (ZAR). The Canadian Dollar exchange rate complex saw further losses as the Canadian retail sales growth came in below forecast. What do the latest... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
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    BusinessClimate.com Blog

  • Placemaking: Investing to Draw and Keep Talent

    Bill McMeekin
    22 Oct 2014 | 12:51 pm
    Livability and talent recruitment have become the conjoined twins of economic development. If you want to have a puncher’s chance of drawing talent to your community, you need to encourage creation of the environment that appeals to them. This  conscious effort at placemaking  is both a talent recruitment and business recruitment strategy. Quality of place attributes are integral to attracting and keeping talent, and that a deep pool of talent will be a key selling point for bringing new investment to the region. And it is not the sole province of large cities with developed urban…
  • Back to the Burbs: More Millennials Settling Outside Cities

    Emily McMackin
    17 Oct 2014 | 6:00 am
    Cities like San Francisco, Boston, New York, Chicago and D.C., may be known for attracting Millennials, but it’s the smaller towns outside of the largest cities that are seeing the fastest growth among young professionals, according to a study published on NewGeography by economist Joel Kotkin. Between 2010 and 2013, the number of 20- to 29-year-olds in the U.S. rose by 4 percent, but the percentage of residents in this demographic living in core cities grew by only 3.2 percent, the study noted. Why are cities losing 20-somethings, while suburbs and smaller towns are gaining them?
  • Price of Productivity: Manufacturing Wages Spike in Industrial States

    Emily McMackin
    10 Oct 2014 | 6:36 am
    Manufacturing is becoming more lucrative than ever before, especially for workers in industrial states. As unemployment rates fall and shortages for niche technical skills rise, companies are increasingly shelling out more to money attract and retain workers, a new Wall Street Journal report notes. In Texas, for example, wages for all types of production workers in factories grew an average of 6.3 percent from the year before, spurred in part by the energy boom there. Other states where manufacturing wage growth has spiked include Washington, Oregon, Indiana and Michigan – all states driven…
  • Gown Helps Town: Universities and Economic Development

    Bill McMeekin
    8 Oct 2014 | 3:30 am
    A winning formula for a desirable place to live includes a major university. That’s no secret. Take a look at the upper echelon’s of Livability.com’s Top 100 Best Places to Live for proof. An overwhelming majority of communities at the top of the ranking have a major university in their backyard, including No. 1 Madison, home of the flagship campus of the University of Wisconsin. If universities and livability make good companions, so to do universities and economic development. It must be true because there’s even an association to promote such working relationships…
  • Rising Star: Secrets Behind the Red-Hot Nashville Economy

    Emily McMackin
    2 Oct 2014 | 6:00 am
    Nashville has been making plenty of national and international news over few past years for having one of the nation’s strongest economies, fastest growing job markets and most coveted atmospheres for culture and quality of life. The city continues to capture these headlines because it has a remarkable story to tell — one that is still being written, according to Pulitzer Prize-winning historian and former Newsweek editor Jon Meacham who delivered the keynote address at the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce’s annual Partnership 2020 meeting on Oct. 1. “This is a golden…
 
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    Latest blog entries

  • Don't Fear the Robots: Automation is a Good Thing

    19 Oct 2014 | 2:57 pm
    Uncreative minds are at it again, riding that ancient saw telling us innovation will put us all permanently out of a job. Admittedly, automation and innovation will eliminate certain jobs, and at times it can appear hopeless, but the computer revolution is but the fart of a gnat when compared to the industrial revolution. We've weathered far more drastic revolutions of labor and capital in the past, for the better, and this time isn't different. In the 1700's, a group of people called Luddites, decided that the power loom was the very end of their livelihood, and that the best course of…
  • Ebola Coming to Europe Next

    23 Sep 2014 | 7:00 pm
    Even as I write, a ship is steaming directly to Amsterdam from the hot zone of the worst Ebola epidemic of all time. It's an ordinary cargo ship, and in a week or two, its crew will be downing beers and visiting the local talent of one of Europe's biggest port cities. The worst part is, it's not the only one. A flotilla of cargo ships leave from Europe each month to visit a variety of West African ports. The last of these ports, terrifyingly, are in each of the Ebola-stricken countries. As if it were perfectly intentional, these ships return straight away to Hamburg or Amsterdam for more…
  • Vladmir Putin: King of the Trashtalkers

    20 Sep 2014 | 2:35 pm
    I'm pretty down on government officials, elected or otherwise, I make no secret of it. But, I do love to watch a good game, and I can appreciate a master when I see one. While Vladimir Putin is a despot extraordinaire, he is awfully good at what he does. Truth be told, Michael Jordan wasn't paid millions in sponsorships and salary because he could put a ball through a net. He was paid his megamillions because he was fun to watch. If he put people to sleep while playing, no one would know his name. It was his miraculous dunks, his whirling fakeouts and electrifying play that made him a star.
  • Just Wars are Easy to Explain

    7 Sep 2014 | 6:58 pm
    A just war, or a morally justifiable war, should look like a morally (and legally) justifiable killing. The reasoning behind a just war should be quick to explain, with an obvious motive like self defense. It should be nearly impossible to find fault with a just war. By comparison, the longwinded articles that I'm reading on the Wall Street Journal reference Neville Chamberlain, Henry Kissinger, soft power, appeasement and isolationism while trying, and trying hard, to get people to sign the dotted line for another war. It got me to wondering: because the pro-war articles are long, is that…
  • The Ebola Outbreak is Airborne

    4 Sep 2014 | 5:02 pm
    The official party line, offered by the World Health Organization, is that the Ebola virus spreading across Africa (and likely other parts of the world), is that it is spread by "direct contact" with infected body fluids. "Infection occurs from direct contact through broken skin or mucous membranes with the blood, or other bodily fluids or secretions (stool, urine, saliva, semen) of infected people. Infection can also occur if broken skin or mucous membranes of a healthy person come into contact with environments that have become contaminated with an Ebola patient’s infectious fluids such…
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    FT Alphaville

  • The 6am London Cut

    David Keohane
    22 Oct 2014 | 9:46 pm
    Markets: Asian bourses barely reacted to fresh data showing that Chinese factory growth for October had ticked up, while Wall Street ended the US day slightly lower. The closely watched HSBC/Markit Flash China Purchasing Managers’ Index showed a slightly better-than-expected reading, edging up from September’s 50.2 to 50.4 in October to date. (FT’s Global Markets Overview)Continue reading: The 6am London Cut
  • Burn rates, oil sovereign edition

    Izabella Kaminska
    22 Oct 2014 | 7:16 am
    How long does it take for an oil-exporting nation to burn through its cash reserves as it waits for oil prices to turn around? Naturally, it depends on which oil exporter we’re talking about and the size of their existing cash-pile. Differences between countries can be monumental. The Oxford Institute of Energy Studies picks up on the theme by citing a chart from Deutsche Bank which shows the varying cash buffer rates between Saudi Arabia, Russia and Nigeria (H/T Marc Ostwald). Continue reading: Burn rates, oil sovereign edition
  • Markets Live: Wednesday, 22nd October, 2014

    Paul Murphy
    22 Oct 2014 | 3:02 am
    Live markets commentary from FT.com Continue reading: Markets Live: Wednesday, 22nd October, 2014
  • The (early) Lunch Wrap

    FT Alphaville
    22 Oct 2014 | 2:35 am
    Good morning New York, FT ALPHAVILLEContinue reading: The (early) Lunch Wrap
  • Chinese deposit growth, but not as we knew it

    David Keohane
    22 Oct 2014 | 1:48 am
    Chart du jour from BCA Research: Continue reading: Chinese deposit growth, but not as we knew it
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    Marginal REVOLUTION

  • Venezuela estimate of the day

    Tyler Cowen
    22 Oct 2014 | 2:29 pm
    Venezuela loses $728MM for each 1$ the oil price drops. Assuming oil @ $104 in 2014 and $96 in 2015 Vzla’s $ deficit in 2015 will be $27.8bn That is from Moiss Naim on Twitter.  Here is more on the same topic.
  • Evidence from opera on the efficacy of copyright

    Tyler Cowen
    22 Oct 2014 | 10:31 am
    Michela Giorcelli and Petra Moser have a new paper, the abstract is this: This paper exploits variation in the adoption of copyright laws within Italy – as a result of Napoleon’s military campaign – to examine the effects of copyrights on creativity. To measure variation in the quantity and quality of creative output, we have collected detailed data on 2,598 operas that premiered across eight states within Italy between 1770 and 1900. These data indicate that the adoption of copyrights led to a significant increase in the number of new operas premiered per state and year. Moreover, we…
  • Assorted links

    Tyler Cowen
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:59 am
    1. How much of financial fluctuations is behavioral? (pdf) 2. Moral licensing and portfolio effects. 3. Silly markets in everything. 4. Does feeling young and acting young make you young again? (speculative) 5. The English are now grumpy over their own rights in the UK.
  • Wedding ring and ceremony expenditures predict shorter marriage duration

    Tyler Cowen
    21 Oct 2014 | 11:39 pm
    There is a new paper from Andrew M. Francis and Hugo M. Mialon: In this paper, we evaluate the association between wedding spending and marriage duration using data from a survey of over 3,000 ever-married persons in the United States. Controlling for a number of demographic and relationship characteristics, we find evidence that marriage duration is inversely associated with spending on the engagement ring and wedding ceremony. What is the mechanism?  Are signal-requiring and financial commitment-requiring marriages more likely to be fragile?  Or, to put forward a politically incorrect…
  • What I’ve been reading

    Tyler Cowen
    21 Oct 2014 | 10:59 pm
    1. Doris Kearns, The Bully Pulpit: Theodore Roosevelt, William Howard Taft, and the Golden Age of Journalism.  This Pulitzer-Prize winning book is compulsively readable and is most valuable on how the Roosevelt and Taft administrations fit together in American history.  I wish it had more detail on economic issues. 2. Walter Isaacson, The Innovators: How a Group of Hackers, Geniuses, and Geeks Created the Digital Revolution.  At first I was bored but the book picks up and is then interesting throughout, most of all I enjoyed the portrait of Bill Gates.  It is a good overview of how some…
 
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    Zero Hedge

  • It’s Not Just Spying – How The NSA Has Turned Into A Giant Profit Center For Corrupt Insiders

    Tyler Durden
    22 Oct 2014 | 7:57 pm
    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog, Dear NSA Employees, You Now Have a Green Light to Loot and Pillage. It’s Time to Get Paid:   Are you just another one of those frustrated NSA employees who feels that unconstitutionally spying on your fellow citizenry under false pretenses isn’t giving you same thrill it once did? If so, have no fear.   Are you are sick and tired of having to spilt your precious working hours defending the destruction of our nation’s founding document to those pesky…
  • United States Of China: In Which States Is Your Landlord Most Likely To Be Chinese

    Tyler Durden
    22 Oct 2014 | 7:28 pm
    America's #1 landlord may be private equity giant Blackstone, but closing in rapidly is none other than America's very own arch nemesis and ascendent superpower, China. But while until recently China's grand ambitions on US multi-family housing had largely flown under the radar, the recent sale of the Waldorf Astoria to a Chinese company has finally put the US on "China is coming" alert... and reincarnated a lot of the same jokes that swept the country by storm in the mid-80s when it appeared Japan, itself nursing a massive asset bubble, would run over Manhattan (everyone knows how that…
  • The "China-And-Japan-PMI-Beat-So-Things-Must-Be-OK" Meme In 2 Simple Charts

    Tyler Durden
    22 Oct 2014 | 7:03 pm
    The reactions in USDJPY, Nikkei 225, S&P futures, Gold, Treasury futures, and oil (in a word - none!) tells you all you need to know about the market's total loss of faith in the soft-survey-based PMI data from around the world (and in particular China and Japan). Despite dramatic weakness in a slew of hard-date economic indicators for both nations, the PMIs rose and beat. Japan's to 7-month highs (so much for moar QQE?) but New orders and Output tumbled. China rose and beat but all key components dropped. As the two charts below suggest... things in PMI data production-land need…
  • Meanwhile, This Is Who Is Quietly Buying All The Cheap Oil

    Tyler Durden
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:30 pm
    With the US Shale Oil industry up in arms, Venezuela screaming, and Russia awkwardly quiet (as the Ruble slides with the falling oil price stabilizing domestic inflows), the 'secret' Saudi-US oil deal that pressured prices for crude down to $80 (18-month lows today) has 'hurt' a lot of the world's producer nations. However, as Bloomberg reports, there is one nation that is very grateful. The number of supertankers sailing toward China’s ports surged to a nine-month high as over 80 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) - the industry’s biggest ships - sail toward the Asian country’s ports.
  • It Will Take 398,879,561 Years To Pay Off The US Government's Debt

    Tyler Durden
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:03 pm
    Submitted by Simon Black of Sovereign Man blog, The US government’s debt is getting close to reaching another round number—$18 trillion. It currently stands at more than $17.9 trillion. But what does that really mean? It’s such an abstract number that it’s hard to imagine it. Can you genuinely understand it beyond just being a ridiculously large number? Just like humans find it really hard to comprehend the vastness of the universe. We know it’s huge, but what does that mean? It’s so many times greater than anything we know or have experienced. German…
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    nextnewdeal.net

  • Threat of Ebola Highlights Problems in the U.S. Public Health System

    rgoldfarb
    15 Oct 2014 | 12:57 pm
    It is likely that Ebola will be contained in the United States, but errors in Texas show we have room for improvement in responding to public health emergencies. On October 15, the second case of Ebola transmitted in the United States was confirmed in Texas between patient Thomas Eric Duncan and a health worker. Even more frightening, perhaps, is the sequence of events leading up to the transmission, and the many questions it generates about the preparedness of the U.S. in responding to public health emergencies. Six days after Duncan arrived in the United States  – having passed a…
  • Obama Administration Defends Amazon’s Low Pay – Again

    rgoldfarb
    9 Oct 2014 | 4:49 am
    It's hard for workers to trust the President's support for policies that help them when the administration sides with Amazon at the Supreme Court. Amazon’s business model is based on quick easy buying and low prices. One way it does that is to force its warehouse workers to wait a long time to leave work, without getting paid. And that’s just fine with the Obama administration, which continues to have a blind spot when it comes to decent pay and working conditions at Amazon. Yesterday the Supreme Court heard a case (Integrity Staffing Solutions v. Busk) in which workers are suing the temp…
  • The Federal Reserve Won't Save the Economy for All

    rgoldfarb
    9 Oct 2014 | 4:42 am
    Deepening political participation in and beyond voting is key to achieving policies that raise outcomes for the working class. Inflation hawks have been the talk of the town in elite economic circles in recent weeks. More liberal-leaning minds critique their (frankly) unsubstantiated concerns that the Federal Reserve is driving the U.S. economy toward high levels of inflation. Hawks are concerned that high levels of inflation due to expansionary monetary policy will lead to negative economic outcomes for major firms and, in turn, the rest of the American public. Instead of worrying about…
  • At NextGen IL Conference, Young People Set the Agenda for Their State

    rgoldfarb
    7 Oct 2014 | 4:05 am
    At the NextGen Illinois conference, Campus Network leaders found a policy space shaped entirely by young people. Last Saturday, the Midwest Regional Team of the Roosevelt Institute | Campus Network met in Chicago to attend the NextGen Illinois conference, the culmination of months of discussion, caucuses, and ideas from around Illinois. NextGen IL, an initiative led by the Campus Network and Young Invicibles, is working to bring young adults in Illinois together to shape a youth policy agenda for Illinois. What set NextGen apart from so many other conferences was that its content, agenda, and…
  • The Big Mistake in President Obama’s Economic Pivot: Overlooking the Grassroots

    tprice
    3 Oct 2014 | 11:40 am
    The president spoke about federal legislation to promote economic opportunity, but real progress is happening at the local level. Yesterday, President Obama traveled to Northwestern University to give a speech on the new American economy. The speech was touted as a major pivot, both rhetorical and political, from a heavily international focus to a domestic one. Obama’s speech highlighted some of the successes of his administration, pointing to a lowered unemployment rate, a higher rate of insured individuals through Obamacare, and an increase in manufacturing jobs since the 2008 financial…
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    Jared Bernstein | On the Economy

  • Global growth, the $, (under-priced) oil and their impact on US growth rates.

    Jared Bernstein
    22 Oct 2014 | 4:55 am
    Those stalwart number crunching research economists at Goldman Sachs (i.e., not the traders) have a really interesting graph out this AM that packs in a ton of info on current growth pluses and negatives. The figure uses the Federal Reserve’s macro model (which is actually publically available now…and, yes, I will fire it up myself once I have the time to figure out its bells/whistles) to decompose a set of factors nudging real GDP growth this way and that, including slower global growth, the stronger dollar—they’re the larger negatives—and lower oil prices and interest rates…
  • Larry Mishel and the wage message: “Don’t give up the hole!”

    Jared Bernstein
    21 Oct 2014 | 6:25 am
    Larry Mishel puts not too fine a point on it as you see in this WSJ review of his talk at the Boston Fed inequality conference. Some of those same points show up in this American Prospect piece I did on the topic a few weeks ago. Larry’s comments are much in the spirit of the “don’t give up the hole” theme I’ve been trying to develop in recent weeks, where the hole is wage growth (it’s a golfing expression: don’t be so finessed on the green that you forget that the goal is to sink the putt). The first thing to know is that hourly wages, long a focus at EPI, are the building…
  • More on the Fed, QE, and the full employment unemployment rate.

    Jared Bernstein
    20 Oct 2014 | 2:46 pm
    Just a quick follow up on this morning’s meanderings about the Fed, QE (quantitative easing, or the Fed’s asset purchasing program, currently winding down), inequality, and that sort of stuff. I mentioned the President of Boston Fed, Eric Rosengren, and here he is again saying very cool things in my hometown paper. For example, this is much the same point I made this AM about how you’d want to think about the net impact of QE: There’s no disputing the fact that asset prices have gone up as a result of what we’re doing,” Rosengren acknowledged, and…
  • Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE 10/15 — 10/20

    Jared Bernstein
    20 Oct 2014 | 12:27 pm
    Evaluating early results from the Treasury’s move to curb corporate tax inversions. Explaining the impact of inequality, opportunity, and growth on stagnant wage trends. Describing why to say “we fought the war on poverty and lost” is to reveal ones contempt for the facts of the case. Explaining why we should be careful not to view our global economic problems as separate from our political dysfunction problems. Analyzing Chair Yellen’s talk on the inequality of opportunity and asking the big question hovering above this conversation — can the Fed do anything about inequality?
  • Inequality and the Fed

    Jared Bernstein
    20 Oct 2014 | 5:10 am
    There’s lots of interesting press following the Boston Fed conference on inequality of opportunity that I posted on last week. This AM, I’ve added something on a big question that hovers above this conversation: can the Fed do anything about inequality? My answer is a firm “yes!” over at PostEverything. BTW, in part due to space constraints I did not deal with the argument that the Fed’s near-zero Fed funds rate and asset-buying programs are contributing to inequality by boosting asset prices and the stock market. In short, there’s something to that point…
 
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    Freakonomics

  • How Can Tiny Norway Afford to Buy So Many Teslas? Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    16 Oct 2014 | 7:00 am
    This is a transcript of the Freakonomics Radio podcast “How Can Tiny Norway Afford to Buy So Many Teslas?” [MUSIC: “Ja, vi elsker dette landet” (Norwegian National Anthem)] Stephen J. DUBNER: As you likely know, the American automobile company Tesla makes some of the most desirable–and expensive–electric cars in the world. The company is currently valued at roughly $31 billion. Compare that to the $55 billion market cap of the Ford Motor Company.Tesla, however, last year sold fewer than 25,000 cars while Ford sells more than 6 million vehicles a year, or roughly 240…
  • How Can Tiny Norway Afford to Buy So Many Teslas? A New Freakonomics Radio Podcast

    Greg Rosalsky
    16 Oct 2014 | 7:00 am
    (Photo: Tesla Motors) Until recently, tiny Norway (population 5 million) has been the second largest market for Teslas (after the U.S.). Earlier this year, Tesla’s Model S became the best-selling car in the country ever for a one-month period. Not bad for a luxury electric vehicle whose base price in Norway is over $100,000. What’s behind this Tesla boom? That’s the question we try to answer in this episode of Freakonomics Radio. It’s called “How Can Tiny Norway Afford to Buy So Many Teslas?” (You can download/subscribe at iTunes, get the RSS feed, or listen…
  • How to Raise Money Without Killing a Kitten: A Freakonomics Radio Rebroadcast

    Freakonomics
    9 Oct 2014 | 7:00 am
    (Photo: pinguino k) It’s fundraising season again here at Freakonomics Radio. This episode is a rebroadcast of the first time that we asked listeners to donate to help keep our public-radio podcast going strong. This episode is called “How to Raise Money Without Killing a Kitten.” (You can download/subscribe at iTunes, get the RSS feed, or listen via the media player in the post. You can also read the transcript; it includes credits for the music you’ll hear in the episode.) In this podcast you’ll hear the economist John List give us the gospel of fundraising…
  • Fixing the World, Bang-for-the-Buck Edition Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    2 Oct 2014 | 7:00 am
    This is a transcript of the Freakonomics Radio podcast “Fixing the World, Bang-for-the-Buck Edition” [MUSIC:Vagabond Opera, “Hanumonsoon” (from Sing For Your Lives Stephen J. DUBNER: Hey podcast listeners. The episode you’re about to hear is called “Fixing the World, Bang-for-the-Buck Edition.” In it, you’ll hear how a bunch of economists have teamed up to measure the ROI, or return on investment, for the development goals set by the United Nations. In other words: if you only have $100 — or, in the case of the UN, $100 billion let’s say — to fight something…
  • Fixing the World, Bang-for-the-Buck Edition: A New Freakonomics Radio Podcast

    Joel Werner
    2 Oct 2014 | 7:00 am
    (Photo: European Commission DG ECHO) Here’s $2.5 trillion. You have 15 years to spend it. How do you distribute this money in a way that will achieve the most good for the world? This isn’t a hypothetical. In September 2015, the United Nations will set its Post-2015 Development Goals,  continuation of the Millennium Development Goals it set in 2000. But with every interest group imaginable (and then some) scrambling for a slice of the  aid pie, how do you decide which goals are the most worthy? That’s the question addressed by this week’s episode. It’s called…
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    interfluidity

  • Econometrics, open science, and cryptocurrency

    Steve Randy Waldman
    17 Oct 2014 | 7:29 am
    Mark Thoma wrote the wisest two paragraphs you will read about econometrics and empirical statistical research in general: You are testing a theory you came up with, but the data are uncooperative and say you are wrong. But instead of accepting that, you tell yourself "My theory is right, I just haven't found the right econometric specification yet. I need to add variables, remove variables, take a log, add an interaction, square a term, do a different correction for misspecification, try a different sample period, etc., etc., etc." Then, after finally digging out that one…
  • Scale, progressivity, and socioeconomic cohesion

    Steve Randy Waldman
    11 Oct 2014 | 6:33 am
    Today seems to be the day to talk about whether those of us concerned with poverty and inequality should focus on progressive taxation. Edward D. Kleinbard in the New York Times and Cathie Jo Martin and Alexander Hertel-Fernandez at Vox argue that focusing on progressivity can be counterproductive. Jared Bernstein, Matt Bruenig, and Mike Konczal offer responses offer responses that examine what “progressivity” really means and offer support for taxing the rich more heavily than the poor. This is an intramural fight. All of these writers presume a shared goal of reducing inequality…
  • Links: UBI and hard money

    Steve Randy Waldman
    26 Sep 2014 | 6:33 am
    Max Sawicky offers a response to the post he inspired on the political economy of a universal basic income. See also a related post by Josh Mason, and a typically thoughtful thread by interfluidity‘s commenters. I’m going to use this post to make space for some links worth remembering, both on UBI and hard money (see two posts back). The selection will be arbitrary and eclectic with unforgivable omissions, things I happen to have encountered recently. Please feel encouraged to scold me for what I’ve missed in the comments. With UBI, I’m not including links to…
  • The political economy of a universal basic income.

    Steve Randy Waldman
    19 Sep 2014 | 6:35 am
    So you should read these two posts by Max Sawicky on proposals for a universal basic income, because you should read everything Max Sawicky writes. (Oh wait. Two more!) Sawicky is a guy I often agree with, but he is my mirror Spock on this issue. I think he is 180° wrong on almost every point. To Sawicky, the push for a universal basic income is a “utopian” diversion that both deflects and undermines political support for more achievable, tried and true, forms of social insurance. My argument against UBI is pragmatic and technical. In the context of genuine threats to the…
  • Hard money is not a mistake

    Steve Randy Waldman
    1 Sep 2014 | 5:23 pm
    Paul Krugman is wondering hard about why fear of inflation so haunts the wealthy and well-off. Like many people on the Keynes-o-monetarist side of the economic punditry, he is puzzled. After all, aren’t “rentiers” — wealthy debt holders — often also equity holders? Why doesn’t their interest in the equity appreciation that might come with a booming economy override the losses they might experience from their debt positions? Surely a genuinely rising tide would lift all boats? As Krugman points out, there is nothing very new in fear of inflation by the rich.
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    Credit Writedowns

  • The roots of the Italian stagnation

    Guest Author
    22 Oct 2014 | 7:08 am
    This post first appeared at Vox in June By Paolo Manasse It’s currently very trendy in Italy to blame Angela Merkel, Mario Monti, and austerity measures for the current recession. This column argues that while the severity of the downturn is clearly a cyclical phenomenon, the inability of the country to grow out of it is the legacy of more than a decade of a lack of reforms in credit, product and labour markets. This lack of reform has suffocated innovation and productivity growth, resulting in wage dynamics that are completely decoupled from labour productivity and demand conditions. Italy…
  • Does The Secular Stagnation Theory Have Any Sort of Validity?

    Edward Hugh
    22 Oct 2014 | 4:58 am
    By Edward Hugh In a number of blog-posts (Paul Krugman’s Bicycling Problem, On Bubble Business Bound, The Expectations Fairy) I have examined some of the implications of the theory of secular stagnation. But I haven’t up to now argued why I think the hypothesis that Japan and some parts of Europe are suffering from some kind of secular stagnation could well be a valid one. Strangely, while I would suggest the most obviously affected countries are those mentioned above, most of the debate has centered around the US economy. Since it is not at all clear that the US economy is actually…
  • The rise in periphery bond yields is sovereign debt crisis, round 2

    Edward Harrison
    16 Oct 2014 | 2:55 am
    I have long warned that the euro crisis was going to return. But recently the concern I voiced in posts here was more concrete i.e. that the renewed recession fears in Europe would force a decoupling between the periphery and the core in the Eurozone. This seems to be occurring. Today the FT wrote that: Greece’s long-term borrowing costs breached 8 per cent on Thursday – the highest since early February – as investors fretted over the possibility that upcoming elections could derail the country’s chances of a clean exit from its bailout. The Greek 10-year bond yield rose 81 basis…
  • Eurocrisis Round Two, Blame the Germans Edition

    Edward Hugh
    15 Oct 2014 | 4:58 am
    By Edward Hugh “What strikes me, also, is the extent of intellectual confusion that remains.” – Paul Krugman, Europanic 2.0 “The problem is that Germany has continued to maintain highly competitive labor costs and run huge surpluses since the bubble burst — and that in a depressed world economy, this makes Germany a significant part of the problem.” – Paul Krugman, German Surpluses: This Time Is Different According to one fairly widespread (and recently much in vogue) theory about the Euro crisis, Germany bears a large part of the responsibility for the current mess. The view is…
  • Is Japan Back In Recession?

    Edward Hugh
    10 Oct 2014 | 3:58 am
    By Edward Hugh “People should seriously consider that Japan’s economy may have fallen into recession despite the weaker yen and a stock rally from the BOJ’s easing and the flexible fiscal policy by Abe’s administration,” said Maiko Noguchi, senior economist at Daiwa Securities. “Initial expectations that the economy could withstand the negative effects of a sales tax hike through a virtuous circle seem to be collapsing.” “the risks are rising that the economy will later be determined to be in recession,” said Yuji Shimanaka,  chief economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley…
 
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    Liberty Street Economics

  • Don’t Be Late! The Importance of Timely Settlement of Tri-Party Repo Contracts

    Blog Author
    20 Oct 2014 | 4:00 am
    Adam Copeland and Ira SeligTri-party repo is popular among securities dealers as a way to raise short-term funding. The tri-party repo settlement process has been improved, and continues to be improved, with the implementation of a set of recent reforms. Two main goals of these reforms are to sharply reduce the amount of liquidity needed to facilitate the settlement of tri-party repo contracts, and to increase the use of more resilient sources of liquidity (for example, term financing and committed credit) to ensure that settlement can occur in good and bad times. In this post, we detail how…
  • New York City’s Not-So-Outer Boroughs

    Blog Author
    17 Oct 2014 | 4:00 am
    Jason Bram Ever since the first census of the U.S. population was taken, back in 1790, New York City has been the nation’s largest city, and for most of this time by a factor of more than two. But how has the city—in particular, the city’s boundaries—evolved over time?     In the latter part of the 1800s, New York City comprised the island of Manhattan and a small but expanding portion of what is now the Bronx. It was only after the 1898 consolidation that the city became the five boroughs that delineate it today. Yet today, as then, Manhattan is widely considered…
  • How Do Liquidity Conditions Affect U.S. Bank Lending?

    Blog Author
    15 Oct 2014 | 4:00 am
    Ricardo Correa, Linda Goldberg, and Tara Rice The recent financial crisis underscored the importance of understanding how liquidity conditions for banks (or other financial institutions) influence the banks’ lending to domestic and foreign customers. Our recent research examines the domestic and international lending responses to liquidity risks across different types of large U.S. banks before, during, and after the global financial crisis. The analysis compares large global U.S. banks—that is, those that have offices in foreign countries and are able to move liquidity from affiliates…
  • Historical Echoes: “Burns Money” on What’s My Line?

    Blog Author
    10 Oct 2014 | 4:00 am
    Amy Farber In a May 2014 Historical Echoes post, Marja Vitti describes what happened to money too old to be left in circulation: it was incinerated by the Federal Reserve Banks until passage of the Clean Air Act of 1970, after which the money was shredded. Paper money incineration by a Federal Reserve Bank employee was the subject of a hilarious broadcast of the famous TV quiz show What’s My Line In this broadcast, which aired on June 12,  1960, Thomas Hull, in charge of burning the money for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, steps onto the set, writes his name on the…
  • Demographic Trends and Growth in Japan and the United States

    Blog Author
    8 Oct 2014 | 4:00 am
    Thomas Klitgaard and Preston Mui Japan’s population is shrinking and getting older, with the population falling at a 0.2 percent rate this year and the working-age population (ages 16 to 64) falling at a much faster rate of almost 1.5 percent. In contrast, the U.S. population is rising at a 0.7 percent annual rate and the working-age population is rising at a 0.2 percent rate. So far, supporting the growing share of Japan’s population that is 65 and over has been the substantial increase in the share of working-age women entering the labor…
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    The Incidental Economist

  • Ten impressions of big data: Claims, aspirations, hardly any causal inference

    Austin Frakt
    22 Oct 2014 | 9:00 am
    “Big data” is all the rage. I am curious what people think big data can do, and what some claim it will do, for health and health care. I’m curious how people think causal connections will arise from (or using) big data. In large part this consideration seems overlooked, as if credible causal inferences will just emerge from the data, announcing themselves, dripping wet with self-evident validity. I am concerned. I’ve been collecting excerpts of articles on big data, many sent to me by Darius Tahir, whom I thank. What I’ve compiled to date is below and in no…
  • What happens when hospitals flip to for-profit status?

    Adrianna McIntyre
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:30 am
    When for-profit Vanguard Healthcare bought the Detroit Medical Center in late 2010, worried murmurs rippled through the community. DMC is the largest provider of charity care in the state, and it wasn’t clear whether Vanguard would feel obliged to honor the hospital’s charitable mission—would they keep serving the uninsured, or would access and quality of care suffer? These concerns were echoed by patient advocates when Tenet Healthcare—another for-profit—acquired Vanguard in 2013, absorbing DMC in the process. Were people right to worry? Maybe not, according to a new…
  • On an Antibiotic? You May Be Getting Only a False Sense of Security

    Aaron Carroll
    22 Oct 2014 | 5:30 am
    The following originally appeared on The Upshot (copyright 2014, The New York Times Company). The best way to prevent transmission of Ebola in the United States is to identify and quarantine those with the disease as soon as possible. However, the first Ebola patient in this country was, unfortunately, released after going to an emergency room, even though he had symptoms indicative of the disease. He was sent home on antibiotics. The antibiotics were, of course, of no use in treating Ebola. They’d be of no use for any viral infection, for that matter. Even if the patient had actually had…
  • Supplement ingredients are a real problem

    Aaron Carroll
    22 Oct 2014 | 4:30 am
    In last week’s Healthcare Triage News, I covered the fact that many supplements have switched from 1,3-dimethylamylamine (banned) to 1,3-dimethylbutylamine (not banned yet). Yesterday, in JAMA, a new study told an even worse story: The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) initiates class I drug recalls when products have the reasonable possibility of causing serious adverse health consequences or death. Recently, the FDA has used class I drug recalls in an effort to remove dietary supplements adulterated with pharmaceutical ingredients from US markets. Approximately half of all…
  • What’s in a name: Medicaid “beneficiaries” edition

    Austin Frakt
    22 Oct 2014 | 3:00 am
    Maybe I should have known this. Maybe I did know it and forgot. Maybe there’s a good reason for that. Surely the ACA’s implementers knew what they were doing when they began a campaign to convert all relevant Code of Federal Regulations language from Medicaid enrollees to Medicaid beneficiaries. Medicaid enrollees have always just been that—unlike Medicare beneficiaries—a naming convention emphasizing the provisional, conditional nature of the Medicaid entitlement. And the announcement accompanying the change acknowledged as much. The Code of Federal Regulations was revised on 15…
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    LewRockwell

  • Malaysia Air 370 Suspicions

    No Author
    22 Oct 2014 | 10:01 pm
    Tim Clark has been a senior manager at the airline Emirates since 1985 and has been instrumental in developing it into one of the world’s largest airlines. Today, the 64-year-old is seen as a knowledgeable expert and critic of the aviation industry. His view of the vanished Malaysian Airlines flight MH 370 is a provocative one. The plane that disappeared was a Boeing 777 and Emirates operates 127 such aircraft, more than any other airline in the world. SPIEGEL ONLINE: It’s now October, seven months after the disappearance of Malaysian Airlines flight MH 370, and we still…
  • The Evil of WWI

    T. Hunt Tooley
    22 Oct 2014 | 10:01 pm
    The fiftieth anniversary of the First World War in 1964 felt nothing like the current centennial observances. It is worth asking what has changed. When I was growing up in the sixties in a small town in Texas, World War I seemed as remote to me as the Revolutionary War. Not that the conflict was not unknown to me. In our city park there was a statue of a First World War soldier and a memorial to hometown sons who had died in the war. And my grandmother and grandfather told me stories of relief and celebration in 1918 at the war’s end. At school, the dumbing down of “social studies” was…
  • The Doctor Is in

    Gary North
    22 Oct 2014 | 10:01 pm
    Price competition has just taken a giant step forward in medical care. Walmart is getting into the clinic business. This will be mass production.  Most people are within a short drive of a Walmart. Medicare people can get in. Walmart will not be taking other medical insurance except for its in-house program. This means reduced paperwork. This will take out the bottom of the market for physicians. Now physicians will have to specialize . . . or join an HMO. This is all the medical care most people need most of the time. They just want to be told that they are not really seriously sick. For…
  • The London Beer Flood

    No Author
    22 Oct 2014 | 10:01 pm
    Two hundred years ago today, a 15-foot-high tidal wave of one hundred litres of beer swept through London. A three-storey-high vat of beer ruptured, flooding the streets and destroying homes, and eight people died in one of the strangest alcohol-related accidents in history. To those who died, the cause is largely inconsequential. But we all have to perish someday, and drowning in litres of beer is a spectacular way to go. Here are some of the most memorable and bizarre ways to die. The Boston Treacle Flood The US version of the beer flood took place in 1919, when a steel tank of black…
  • Not Parroting the State?

    Andrew P. Napolitano
    22 Oct 2014 | 10:01 pm
    Earlier this week, the federal government’s National Science Foundation, an entity created to encourage the study of science — encouragement that it achieves by awarding grants to scholars and universities — announced that it had awarded a grant to study what people say about themselves and others in social media. The NSF dubbed the project Truthy, a reference to comedian Stephen Colbert’s invention and hilarious use of the word “truthiness.” The reference to Colbert is cute, and he is a very funny guy, but when the feds get into the business of monitoring speech, it is…
 
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    Angry Bear

  • Why do recessions occur?… One answer points to Productivity

    Edward Lambert
    22 Oct 2014 | 2:04 pm
    Noah Smith made a thought-provoking statement on twitter, “Sometimes I wonder what actually causes recessions.” He received a slew of responses. While one could point to many causes, including tight money and the beats of butterfly wings, I look primarily to the dynamics of productivity. Here is a graph of year-over-year productivity growth… You will […]
  • In the ‘Be careful what you wish for’ category …

    Beverly Mann
    22 Oct 2014 | 11:52 am
    Is it just me, or did Joni Ernst just effectively announce that she wants to kill farm subsidies?  Of course, how effectively she announced it will depend on whether her opponent, Bruce Braley, picks up this ball and runs with it. Although maybe she’s talking about something else she thinks is pork. Be careful what […]
  • The result of taxpayers’ financial bailout of GMAC

    Dan Crawford
    22 Oct 2014 | 9:52 am
    Linda Beale announced her return to blogging after the death of her husband here.   (Dan here…Welcome back to blogging Linda.) by Linda Beale The result of taxpayers’ financial bailout of GMAC GMAC, as most of you likely know, was General Motors’ financial group.  GMAC had originated as a means for the auto company to […]
  • About that “State and local governments are closer to the people” thing …

    Beverly Mann
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:15 am
    Indeed, they are; state and local governments are closer to the people.  It’s just that the people they’re closer to probably aren’t, well … you. So, here’s a question: Why isn’t, say, Kay Hagan, who’s running against the North Carolina Senate Majority Leader, or Charlie Crist, who’s running against Florida governor Rick Scott, um, mentioning […]
  • Jim Bruce on Future Fed policy… Fed rate not rising next year

    Edward Lambert
    21 Oct 2014 | 1:59 pm
    By way of the show Boom-Bust, we have an interview with Jim Bruce on the future of Fed Policy. (interview starts at 14:40) He does not see the Fed rate lifting off next year. He does not see easy Fed policy avoiding an economic downturn. He says Fed has been unable to generate inflation at […]
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    niesr.ac.uk

  • The real policy challenge - under-utilisation of migrants' skills

    HeatherRolfe
    30 Sep 2014 | 2:46 am
    Much has been made of Ed Miliband’s failure to deliver sections of his conference speech on the economy and on immigration. But he didn’t forget to repeat the policy first announced just before the party’s 2013 conference to require employers to recruit an apprentice for every non-EU migrant they employ:  ‘If you want to bring in a worker from outside the European Union, that’s OK, but you must provide apprenticeships to the next generation’
  • Real Devolution: The Power to Borrow - Reply

    MoniqueEbell
    23 Sep 2014 | 7:30 am
    In our recent paper on devolution we argue that real power requires granting UK regions the ability to borrow in addition to tax and spending powers. In a blog post, Tony Yates suggested that this would in fact create the same mess as the Euro zone.
  • Stubborn facts?

    JonathanPortes
    9 Sep 2014 | 1:57 pm
    Toby Young (Fulbright Lecture, 2014, reported by Laura McInery): Kids can't analyse or think critically without first learning facts
  • The crisis at Calais: no, the UK is not "El Dorado":

    JonathanPortes
    5 Sep 2014 | 2:32 am
    The scenes at Calais over the past few days raise the question of why Britain is the "favoured destination" for illegal/irregular entrants to the European Union.
  • The public sees international students as an asset and source of talent

    HeatherRolfe
    27 Aug 2014 | 1:44 am
    What do the public think about international students? Do they see them simply as generating revenue for universities or as longer term migrants who can bring new talent to the UK? New research by British Future shows that there is support for international students among the general public who both recognise the benefits they bring and believe we should make us of their skills and talent.
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    Bruegel - Latest Updates

  • Uber Economics: There is no such thing as bad publicity

    21 Oct 2014 | 1:22 am
    Last month we published a blog post examining the economics behind, and the challenges for, the Uber ridesharing company. We now want to consider how Uber might have been affected by opposition from vested interests – in Uber's case, taxi drivers – and by regulation to restrict Uber. We take into account major events involving the company, and use Germany as a case study. Uber arrived in Germany in February 2013. In April 2014 the first regulation imposing restrictions on its activity was passed, prohibiting the company from offering its services in Berlin. In June 2014 there was a…
  • The return of market volatility

    19 Oct 2014 | 11:18 pm
    What’s at stake: The size of the market gyrations this week took everybody by surprise. Several stories have been put forward to rationalize these movements, but the abruptness of the adjustment is puzzling and underlines that the degree of liquidity in these markets may have been overestimated. Last week wrap-upWe are definitely back in the “risk-on-risk-off” regime againSober Look writes that we are definitely back in the “risk-on-risk-off” regime again. In its Global Market overview, the FT notes this morning that high volatility will likely remain the story for now especially as…
  • Jean Tirole's legacy

    16 Oct 2014 | 12:09 am
    On October 13 the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for 2014 to the French economist Jean Tirole for his analysis of market power and regulation.  1 The numerous references to Laffont in the scientific background for the prize suggest that, were he still alive, he might have shared the prize with Tirole.Jean Tirole, along with his mentor and coauthor Jean-Jacques Laffont,1 was one of the main scholars who contributed to the systematic use of game theory and mechanism design in Industrial…
  • China seeking to cash in on Europe’s crises

    15 Oct 2014 | 11:15 pm
    Last Tuesday, I posted about the increasing investment of China in Russia, wondering whether and to what extent it could help Russia smooth the economic impact of European sanctions. But as shown by a recent  analysis of the Financial Times, China has been increasingly investing in Europe as well, focusing recently on crisis-hit countries.Chinese FDI to Europe has been very small until 2010. But since then it has been significantly increasing, reaching 27bn euro in 2012China has traditionally been a receiver of European FDI, which according to Deutsche Bank, accounted for 18% of total…
  • Developing Asia: challenges and opportunities in the global economy

    15 Oct 2014 | 8:11 am
    Developing Asia remains the fastest growing region globally. Slowing external demand has hurt some economies in the region but as a whole Asia and the Pacific is on track for firm growth in 2014 and 2015. Presenting the update of the Asian Development Outlook 2014 (ADO 2014), Dr Wei will argue that moving forward structural reform processes in China, India, and Indonesia—the region’s three biggest economies—will be critical in shaping their growth outlook. Dr. Wei will discuss the impact of the winding down of unconventional United States monetary policy on Asian financial markets.
 
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    TaxVox

  • Bertha and the French Professor: Lessons for Public Private Partnerships

    Tracy Gordon
    21 Oct 2014 | 9:34 am
    Jean Tirole is an influential, respected, and by all accounts gracious man who won this year’s Nobel Prize in economics. Bertha is a 7,000-ton tunnel boring machine that’s been stuck under Seattle for nine months—but is still tweeting—as state officials and a private contractor battle over who should pay to get her out. What do Prof. Tirole and Bertha have in common? They show the strengths and weaknesses of public private partnerships. P3s refer to all kinds of contractual arrangements, but the key feature is a transfer of risk from the public to the private sector. The idea is that…
  • A “Normal” Budget Isn’t Really Normal

    Donald Marron
    20 Oct 2014 | 7:39 am
    Treasury closed the financial books on fiscal 2014 last week. As my colleague Howard Gleckman noted, the top line figures all came in close to their 40-year averages. The $483 billion deficit was about 2.8 percent of gross domestic product, for example, slightly below the 3.2 percent average of the past four decades. Tax revenues clocked in at 17.5 percent of GDP, a smidgen above their 17.3 percent 40-year average. And spending was 20.3 percent, a bit below its 20.5 percent average. Taxes, spending, and deficits thus appear to be back to “normal.” If anything, fiscal policy in 2014 was…
  • On Residence, Retirement, and Economic Records

    Renu Zaretsky
    20 Oct 2014 | 5:00 am
    Congress is in recess through the mid-term elections. The Daily Deduction will post each Monday until then.  What’s a multinational to do? Where is it to go?  Senator Dick Durbin and Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden seem pleased that Chicago-based AbbVie’s  decided to drop its deal with Dublin-based Shire. But other inversion deals continue to advance regardless of the Treasury’s rules to curb them, including Mylan, Chiquita, Applied Materials, and C&J Energy Services. But heading abroad might be slightly less attractive. Ireland has closed a tax loophole at the behest of…
  • Ahead of the Midterms, State Economic Trends Present Mixed Signals

    Richard C. Auxier
    17 Oct 2014 | 9:49 am
    Voters say the economy is the most important issue in the upcoming election. But as the most recent State Economic Monitor reports, the economy looks very different depending on what (and what state) you’re analyzing. And polls suggest that voters faced with these mixed messages may focus on other issues when they choose governors in November. The good news for incumbents is on employment. Every state but Alaska added jobs between August 2013 and August 2014, and the unemployment rate dropped in 45 states and the District of Columbia during that period. Jobless rates fell at least 1…
  • Taxes and Spending Return To “Normal”– But Not For Long

    Howard Gleckman
    16 Oct 2014 | 1:29 pm
    Yesterday, the Treasury Department reported that the deficit for Fiscal Year 2014, which ended on Sept. 30, fell to $483 billion, or about 2.8 percent of Gross Domestic Product. This being Washington, the report was hailed as either an enormous success or dismissed as meaningless.  Who is right? Is it good news or bad news? Well, it is good news, at least in the short run. But the news isn’t that good. We have, in effect, climbed out of a very deep hole and returned to something like fiscal normalcy. At least for now. To better sort through this, it helps to understand why the deficit has…
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    Off the Charts Blog | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

  • Medicare and Medicaid Should Be Protected in Trade Agreements

    Paul N. Van de Water
    22 Oct 2014 | 12:39 pm
    CBPP, AARP, the AFL-CIO, Consumers Union, and ten other national organizations have written to the U.S. Trade Representative asking that Medicare, Medicaid, and other health programs be excluded from the investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) provisions of pending trade agreements. ISDS would give companies a new legal avenue to challenge U.S. pricing and patent policies for drugs and medical devices: the ability to sue the U.S. government before an international arbitration panel that wouldn’t be subject to normal democratic checks and balances.  In our letter, we say: ISDS . . . would…
  • 4 Ways to Help More Families Use Vouchers to Live in Low-Poverty Neighborhoods

    Barbara Sard
    22 Oct 2014 | 11:58 am
    The Housing Choice Voucher (HCV) program has reduced families’ housing cost burdens and homelessness and boosted their housing stability, but its performance in helping families live in low-poverty, high-opportunity neighborhoods has been disappointing, as we explain in our recent paper. Overall, just about 20 percent of the families with children who use housing vouchers live in high-opportunity neighborhoods with access to good schools, safe streets, and high rates of employment.  Almost 10 percent — including a quarter of a million children — of families in the program live in…
  • A Dangerous Way to “Fix” American Government

    CBPP
    21 Oct 2014 | 1:21 pm
    “A dangerous proposal is circulating in states across the country that could widen political divisions and jeopardize cherished rights and freedoms,” CBPP President Robert Greenstein explains today in the Washington Post’s PostEverything blog.  He continues: The push is coming primarily from well-organized, arch-conservative groups seeking to capitalize on the decline in public trust in government to limit the federal government’s role and spending powers.  And the method they prefer is a constitutional convention — the first since the 1787 conclave that produced the U.S.
  • Improving Children’s Chances of a Better Life

    CBPP
    21 Oct 2014 | 11:44 am
    In a new commentary for Spotlight on Poverty and Opportunity, CBPP Vice President for Housing Policy Barbara Sard outlines steps that federal, state, and local agencies can take to help tens of thousands of children and their families avoid living in violent neighborhoods of extreme poverty — and enable more of them to choose to live in low-poverty neighborhoods with high-quality schools.  Here’s the opening: Nearly 4 million children live in low-income families that receive federal rental assistance, which not only helps them keep a roof over their heads but also has the potential to…
  • Health Reform Reduces the Deficit, Contrary to Senate GOP Analysis

    Paul N. Van de Water
    21 Oct 2014 | 2:00 am
    A recent analysis by Senate Budget Committee Republican staff that claims health reform will increase the deficit rests on two dubious propositions.  Under more reasonable assumptions, health reform will reduce the deficit, as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Joint Committee on Taxation have consistently estimated.  Just a few months ago, CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf wrote, “the agencies have no reason to think that their initial assessment that [health reform] would reduce budget deficits was incorrect.” How did the Senate Budget Committee’s Republican staff reach such a…
 
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Sailing between the Scylla of hyping of sexy research and the Charybdis of reflexive skepticism

    Andrew
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:56 am
    Recently I had a disagreement with Larry Bartels which I think is worth sharing with you. Larry and I took opposite positions on the hot topic of science criticism. To put things in a positive way, Larry was writing about some interesting recent research which I then constructively criticized. To be more negative, Larry was hyping some sexy research and I was engaging in mindless criticism. The balance between promotion and criticism is always worth discussing, but particularly so in this case because of two factors: 1. The research in question is on the borderline. The conclusions in…
  • Try a spaghetti plot

    Andrew
    21 Oct 2014 | 6:18 am
    Joe Simmons writes: I asked MTurk NFL fans to consider an NFL game in which the favorite was expected to beat the underdog by 7 points in a full-length game. I elicited their beliefs about sample size in a few different ways (materials .pdf; data .xls). Some were asked to give the probability that the better team would be winning, losing, or tied after 1, 2, 3, and 4 quarters. If you look at the average win probabilities, their judgments look smart. But this graph is super misleading, because the fact that the average prediction is wise masks the fact that the average person is not. Of the…
  • Three ways to present a probability forecast, and I only like one of them

    Andrew
    20 Oct 2014 | 7:12 am
    To the nearest 10%: To the nearest 1%: To the nearest 0.1%: I think the National Weather Service knows what they’re doing on this one. The post Three ways to present a probability forecast, and I only like one of them appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • On deck this week

    Andrew
    20 Oct 2014 | 6:00 am
    Mon: Three ways to present a probability forecast, and I only like one of them Tues: Try a spaghetti plot Wed: I ain’t got no watch and you keep asking me what time it is Thurs: Some questions from our Ph.D. statistics qualifying exam Fri: Solution to the helicopter design problem Sat: Solution to the problem on the distribution of p-values Sun: Solution to the sample-allocation problem The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • “Your Paper Makes SSRN Top Ten List”

    Andrew
    19 Oct 2014 | 6:54 am
    I received the following email from the Social Science Research Network, which is a (legitimate) preprint server for research papers: Dear Andrew Gelman: Your paper, “WHY HIGH-ORDER POLYNOMIALS SHOULD NOT BE USED IN REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY DESIGNS”, was recently listed on SSRN’s Top Ten download list for: PSN: Econometrics, Polimetrics, & Statistics (Topic) and Political Methods: Quantitative Methods eJournal. As of 02 September 2014, your paper has been downloaded 17 times. You may view the abstract and download statistics at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2486395. Top Ten…
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    macroblog

  • What's behind Declining Labor Force Participation? Test Your Hypothesis with Our New Data Tool

    macroblog
    15 Oct 2014 | 9:03 am
    The share of people (age 16 and over) participating in the labor market—that is, either working or looking for work—declined significantly during the recession. As many researchers have noted (see our list of supplemental reading under "More Information"), there is clearly a cyclical component to the decline. When labor market opportunities dry up, it influences decisions to pursue activities other than work, such as schooling, taking care of family, or retiring. However, much of the decrease in the overall labor force participation rate (LFPR) could be the result of the…
  • On Bogs and Dots

    macroblog
    29 Sep 2014 | 12:25 pm
    Consider this scenario. You travel out of town to meet up with an old friend. Your hotel is walking distance to the appointed meeting place, across a large grassy field with which you are unfamiliar. With good conditions, the walk is about 30 minutes but, to you, the quality of the terrain is not so certain. Though nobody seems to be able to tell you for sure, you believe that there is a 50-50 chance that the field is a bog, intermittently dotted with somewhat treacherous swampy traps. Though you believe you can reach your destination in about 30 minutes, the better part of wisdom is to go it…
  • The Changing State of States' Economies

    macroblog
    15 Sep 2014 | 2:05 pm
    Timely data on the economic health of individual states recently came from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The new quarterly state-level gross domestic product (GDP) series begins in 2005 and runs through the fourth quarter of 2013. The map below offers a look at how states have fared since 2005 relative to the economic performance of the nation as a whole. Learn About Tableau It’s interesting to see the map depict an uneven expansion between the second quarter of 2005 and the peak of the cycle in the fourth quarter of 2007. By the fourth quarter of 2008, most parts of the…
  • What Kind of Job for Part-Time Pat?

    macroblog
    25 Aug 2014 | 12:35 pm
    As anyone who follows macroblog knows, we have been devoting a lot of attention recently to the issue of people working part-time for economic reasons (PTER), which means people who want full-time work but have not yet been able to find it. As of July 2014, the number of people working PTER stood at around 7.5 million. This level is down from a peak of almost 9 million in 2011 but is still more than 3 million higher than before the Great Recession. That doesn’t mean they won’t ever find full-time work in the future, but their chances are a lot lower than in the past. Consider Pat,…
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    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • Persuasion with statistics

    chris dillow
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:39 am
    Mark Thoma's point that apparently strong econometric results are often the product of specification mining prompts Lars Syll to remind us that eminent economists have long been wary of what econometrics can achieve. I doubt if many people have ever thought "Crikey, the t stats are high here. That means I must abandon my long-held beliefs about an important matter." More likely, the reaction is to recall Dave Giles' commandments nine and 10. (Apparently?) impressive econometric findings might be good enough to get you published. But there's a big difference between…
  • Facts, & the Establishment

    chris dillow
    21 Oct 2014 | 6:35 am
    Jeremy Duns accuses Owen Jones of some factual errors. Insofar as he's right, this actually strengthen the substance of Owen's big contention - that the Establishment is a self-regarding clique. Owen's errors are not decisive ones; the claims he has got wrong are not load-bearing ones. Nobody is going to think "So, the DESO doesn't exist any more. This shows that there's no such thing as crony capitalism." In pointing out his errors, Jeremy is not so much defending the Establishment as attacking Owen. Let's grant, for the sake of argument, that…
  • Social mobility in a dystopia

    chris dillow
    20 Oct 2014 | 6:43 am
    I have long been sceptical of the feasibility and desireability of social mobility. Today's report by the Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission, though, makes me wonder: is social mobility an out-dated idea? To see my point, imagine two different societies. One is a bourgeois society, comprising a mass affluent middle class alongside some poverty. The other is a winner-take-all society in which the 1% enjoy huge incomes whilst the 99% just get by. Now, the Milburn Commission's recommendations make sense for a bourgeois society. Improving the educational opportunities of the…
  • Diversity trumps ability

    chris dillow
    17 Oct 2014 | 5:53 am
    Jon Lansman wants Labour MPs to be "ordinary people who have held normal jobs" rather than career politicians. There's a powerful piece of thinking on his side - the diversity trumps ability theorem. This is an extension of James Surowiecki's wisdom of crowds theory, but it has been mathematically formalized by Lu Hong and Scott Page, who summarise it thus: When selecting a problem-solving team from a diverse population of intelligent agents, a team of randomly selected agents outperforms a team comprised of the best-performing agents. I'll spare you the maths, but…
  • Why Freud's wrong

    chris dillow
    16 Oct 2014 | 1:32 am
    As Lord Freud's more illustrious ancestor pointed out, our unguarded comments can sometimes reveal our true sentiments. It's for this reason that his claim that some disabled people are "not worth the full [minimum] wage" has outraged so many. At best, the statement is careless. Sam is entirely correct to say that there is a huge distinction between people's moral worth and the value of their labour; the existence of bankers suffices to prove this. There are, though, two issues here. First, some of our language and hence thought blurs what should be a considerable…
 
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    Moneybox

  • Is McDonald’s Planning to Replace Its Cashiers With Computer Screens?

    Jordan Weissmann
    22 Oct 2014 | 10:36 am
    After McDonald’s announced yet another round of disappointing earnings yesterday—its quarterly profits fell 30 percent—the Wall Street Journal editorial page took a moment to gloat. “So even one of the world’s most ubiquitous consumer brands cannot print money at its pleasure,” it wrote. “This may be news to liberal pressure groups that have lately been demanding that government order the chain known for cheap food to somehow pay higher wages.” In other words, if you think McDonald’s is doing poorly now, just imagine how it would fare with a $10 or $15 minimum wage.
  • Soda and Fries Have Lost Their Charm for Both Consumers and Investors

    Alison Griswold
    21 Oct 2014 | 2:57 pm
    People just aren't into sugary drinks the way they used to be. Coca-Cola is keenly aware of this, which is why it embarked on the "Share a Coke" campaign in June, putting ordinary names on cans and bottles of Coke in the hopes that mass personalization would make people more eager to buy soda. For a while, it appeared to be working: Sales of Coke soft drinks in the U.S. rose more than 2 percent over the summer. But based on the company's latest earnings report, that campaign alone wasn't enough to turn things around. Shares of Coke sank 6 percent on Tuesday after reporting flat soda…
  • Walmart Is Killing the Rest of Corporate America in Solar Power Adoption

    Jordan Weissmann
    21 Oct 2014 | 1:33 pm
    Walmart might be an unadulterated, union-busting evildoer in the eyes of organized labor. But when it comes to another liberal priority, green energy, it's becoming something of a corporate hero. For a few years now, Walmart has been installing solar panels on its stores’ capacious rooftops to improve its corporate image while controlling energy costs. Other big-box retailers such as Ikea, Costco, and Kohl’s have done the same. But thanks to its huge real-estate footprint, Walmart’s efforts are reaching enormous scale. This week, the Solar Energy Industries Association, a trade group,…
  • The Global Millionaires Club Is Booming and Losing Its Exclusivity

    Alison Griswold
    21 Oct 2014 | 10:12 am
    Is it still cool to be a millionaire? Perhaps not by 2019. Over the next five years, the global millionaires club is expected to grow by 53 percent, from 35 million to 53 million members. According to a new report from Credit Suisse, that rapid expansion makes millionaires the fastest growing segment of the world's wealth pyramid. By comparison, the global middle class is predicted to increase 30 percent by 2019 and the upper-middle class by just 22 percent in the same period. The biggest regional growth in millionaires is expected in China, where that population could nearly double from its…
  • Chipotle’s Magical Burrito Empire Keeps Growing, Might Be Slowing

    Alison Griswold
    20 Oct 2014 | 4:23 pm
    Chipotle is no longer cheap. In New York City, a nationwide hike in menu prices means that a chicken burrito costs $8.27, a steak burrito $8.96, and a carnitas burrito $8.73. Want guacamole? That will be another $2.30. But so far, Chipotle consumers have yet to blink. That's the takeaway from Chipotle's third-quarter earnings, which it reported Monday afternoon. Sales at restaurants jumped 19.8 percent over the same period the prior year on increased foot traffic, and profit soared 56.9 percent to $130.8 million. The company's operating margin came in at 28.8 percent. For the sake of…
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    Economic Development Blog » Economic Development Blog -

  • Seguin, Texas Economic Development Deploys Customer Analytics Tool for Retail Attraction

    Economic Development HQ.com
    17 Oct 2014 | 8:20 am
    The City of Seguin, Texas is going to start using a customer analytics tool to boost their retail attraction efforts. Seguin, TX (photo – seguintexas.gov) The City and the Seguin Economic Development Corporation will be using SCOUT, a customer analytics tool from Fort Worth-based Buxton. This tool will help the City identify retailers that match the dining and shopping habits of consumers in the Seguin trade area, allowing the Seguin EDC to use and provide data-backed verification of retail potential. Lisa McCay, vice president in Buxton’s public sector division, said in a release…
  • Rockford Economic Development’s Aviation Cluster Gets a Boost With AAR MRO Groundbreaking

    Economic Development HQ.com
    16 Oct 2014 | 11:05 pm
    AAR Corporation broke ground on a new maintenance, repair and overhaul facility (MRO) hangar at Rockford International Airport in Rockford, IL. AAR MRO groundbreaking at Rockford International Airport in Rockford, IL (photo – rockfordil.com) AAR Chairman and CEO David P. Storch was joined at the groundbreaking by Governor Pat Quinn and Senator Dick Durbin. The $40 million AAR MRO facility covers 200,000 square feet on a 13-acre site, and includes a nine and a half-story jet hangar. The project is expected to create 500 new jobs over five years, and was made possible with a $15 million…
  • Energy Efficient Insulation Producer Expanding Alabama Manufacturing Facility

    Economic Development HQ.com
    16 Oct 2014 | 10:03 pm
    Knauf Insulation, which recycles glass bottles into insulation used in construction to make buildings more energy-efficient, is expanding a manufacturing facility in Lanett, AL. Knauf Insulation plant in Lanett, AL (photo – Knauf Insulation/madeinalabama.com) The Shelbyville, IN-based insulation producer selected the Lanett plant for this expansion after considering several other production facilities in its network. Knauf insulation is an international company and a part of the Knauf family of companies, with 40 manufacturing facilities around the world and $2 billion in annual…
  • Walmart Expanding E-Commerce Distribution Network in Georgia, Pennsylvania

    Economic Development HQ.com
    16 Oct 2014 | 7:49 am
    Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) unveiled their capital expenditure plans for the next fiscal year, and the focus is now squarely on investing heavily on e-commerce initiatives while moderating the physical growth of larger stores. Walmart fulfillment center (photo – walmart.com) The initial beneficiaries of Walmart’s plan to invest heavily in expanding their e-commerce business are Union City, GA and Bethlehem, PA. In Georgia, Governor Nathan Deal announced that Walmart is investing $108 million to establish a 1.2 million-square-foot distribution facility in Fulton County to support its…
  • Hot Springs, Arkansas Economic Development Teams Help Window Source Expand

    Economic Development HQ.com
    15 Oct 2014 | 11:04 pm
    Window Source of Arkansas, a part of one of the largest window retailers in the U.S., is expanding its local operations in Hot Springs, AR. The Window Source (photo – thewindowsource.net) The company has moved into a new building in Hot Springs and doubled its staff, and is expanding the business from Arkansas to other states including Texas, Mississippi, Louisiana and possibly Tennessee. They’re also looking to be named as the national training center for all stores under The Window Source brand. Owners Shaun Keefe and Morgan Wiles started the business in Nov 2011 with no other…
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    Washington Center for Equitable Growth

  • On Jeff Madrick et al.: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America

    Brad DeLong
    22 Oct 2014 | 1:13 pm
    DRAFT PRESENTATION SLIDES: On Jeff Madrick: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America J. Bradford DeLong U.C. Berkeley For Delivery: 2014-10-23 Prepared: 2014-10-22 Jeff Madrick’s Seven Bad Ideas The “Invisible Hand” Say’s Law Friedman’s Folly: Government’s Limited Social Role Low Inflation Is All That Matters There Are No Bubbles Globalization Is Always Good Economics Is a Science In Madrick’s Introduction* Praised in the Introduction: John Maynard Keynes, Dani Rodrik Criticized in the Introduction: Adam Smith–no comment…
  • A deeper understanding of secular stagnation?

    Nick Bunker
    22 Oct 2014 | 11:33 am
    Almost a year ago, Larry Summers delivered a speech at an International Monetary Fund conference that caused quite a stir among economists and other observers of the field. In the speech, the former Treasury Secretary and Harvard University economist resuscitated the idea of secular stagnation, or a prolonged period where inflation-adjusted interest rates need to be negative to spur strong economic growth. Other economists have commented on and built off the idea including Paul Krugman, our own Brad DeLong at the University of California-Berkeley, and Atif Mian and Amir Sufi, the authors of…
  • Things to Read on the Morning of October 22, 2014

    Brad DeLong
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:02 am
    Must- and Shall-Reads: Lawrence MacDonald and Jing Cao: The Sudden Rise of Carbon Taxes, 2010–2030 Larry Mishel: Economist: Skills, Tech Gap Can’t Explain Inequality William C. Dudley: Enhancing Financial Stability by Improving Culture in the Financial Services Industry Danny Vinik: The Federal Reserve Should Not End Its Quantitative Easing Program   Charles Steindel: For Thursday… How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America: “Your comments on how economics should… be constructed are very well-stated (actually making it more of a social science, and less…
  • Morning Must-Read: Charles Steindel: Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy

    Brad DeLong
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:01 am
    Charles Steindel: For Thursday… How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America: “Your comments on how economics should… …be constructed are very well-stated (actually making it more of a social science, and less model-juggling. However, it also would change the sort of person going into the field and change the field’s criteria for success. Not easy!). One thing… is the optimizing behavior of economic policy analysts. Fiscal policy seems off the table, so macroeconomists dive into unconventional monetary policy, which, one trusts, all know is extremely…
  • Morning Must-Read: Note That Politico Does Not Label Advertisements as Advertisements

    Brad DeLong
    22 Oct 2014 | 7:54 am
    Geoff Morrell: No, BP Didn’t Ruin the Gulf: “What impact did the spill actually have on the Gulf Coast environment?… [10 paragraphs]… Geoff Morrell is senior vice president of U.S. communications and external affairs for BP.“ Everybody working for–or reading–Politico needs to think hard about whether this is what they should be doing.
 
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    Bankrate.com » Economics

  • Podcast: Keep calm and invest on

    Doug Whiteman
    20 Oct 2014 | 3:05 am
    The recent ups and downs -- mostly downs -- on Wall Street have not been for the faint of heart. Anxiety levels have been raised even further by some behind-the-scenes turbulence. It can be tough enough for an investor to white-knuckle it and hold on tight while markets are behaving like a bucking bronco, but
  • Financial scourges: The E-words

    Mark Hamrick
    20 Oct 2014 | 3:05 am
    Ebola and Europe have been rocking U.S. markets. What's expected for this week?
  • Podcast: Must-dos for job seekers

    Doug Whiteman
    13 Oct 2014 | 3:05 am
    In this week's Bankrate podcast: How to get the most from job fairs and LinkedIn.
  • Podcast: Dealing with bullies at work

    Doug Whiteman
    6 Oct 2014 | 3:05 am
    Bankrate's podcast examines workplace bullying and offers an update on the housing market.
  • A peek through the Fed’s keyhole

    Mark Hamrick
    6 Oct 2014 | 3:05 am
    This week's highlights will include a look behind the curtain at the Federal Reserve.
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    FiveThirtyEight » Economics | FiveThirtyEight

  • U.S. High School Dropout Rates Fall, Especially Among Latinos

    Ben Casselman
    20 Oct 2014 | 3:36 am
    Five years ago, educators at Elkhart Community Schools realized they had a problem. Their dropout rate was too high. More than one third of the northern Indiana school district’s students weren’t graduating from high school on schedule. Among Hispanics, who make up about a third of the student body, the figures were even worse.“It was a significant moment where we said we have to change the culture,” said Gail Draper, who heads the guidance department at Elkhart Central High School. “We had to do something to turn the tide.”It seems to be working. In 2013, 85 percent of…
  • You See Sneakers, These Guys See Hundreds Of Millions In Resale Profit

    Lisa Chow
    17 Oct 2014 | 3:06 am
    Shirod Ince sat at the front of a line of more than 100 people, mostly guys in their early 20s, on a Friday evening last month. For two days, he and his friends had been taking turns waiting outside a Foot Locker in Harlem to buy the new LeBron sneaker. Through the long, restless hours, they had sustained themselves on Popeye’s, McDonald’s and a belief that it would all pay off in the end.Ince had no plans to wear the new Nikes. No, for the past two years, the 22-year-old basketball coach has been reselling the sneakers he waits for. And he thought he could double, triple, possibly even…
  • Senate Control Could Come Down To Whole Foods vs. Cracker Barrel

    David Wasserman
    8 Oct 2014 | 6:58 am
    A few weeks ago, the new moderator of “Meet the Press,” Chuck Todd, took to his “Nerd Screen” to outline an unconventional way to think about the midterm political landscape. His theory: 2014’s hottest races are boiling down to big Democratic urban areas and inner suburbs with lots of Starbucks coffee shops versus heavily Republican exurban hinterlands and rural areas with lots of Chick-fil-A restaurants.11But after immersing myself in numbers, maps and, admittedly, a spicy chicken sandwich, I discovered a slight problem: Neither chain’s political geography fits…
  • Marriage Isn’t Dead — Yet

    Ben Casselman
    29 Sep 2014 | 10:09 am
    Fewer Americans of all stripes are getting married. But beneath that overarching trend lies an important distinction: Some groups are merely delaying marriage, while others are skipping it entirely.The Pew Research Center last week released a big report on the decline in marriage in the United States. In 1960, nearly 90 percent of 25- to 34-year olds had been married; today, that figure is barely 50 percent.12 The trend is remarkably broad, cutting across race, education, income and other characteristics.13But dig deeper into the numbers and they reveal a hidden divide: Affluent,…
  • The American Middle Class Hasn’t Gotten A Raise In 15 Years

    Ben Casselman
    22 Sep 2014 | 3:01 am
    In 1988, the typical American adult was 40 years old, white and married, with a high school diploma. If he was a man, he probably worked full time. If she was a woman, she probably didn’t.Twenty-five years later, Americans are older, more diverse and more educated. We are less likely to be married and more likely to live alone. Work is divided more evenly between the sexes. One thing that hasn’t changed? The income of the median U.S. household is still just under $52,000.The government’s release last week of income and poverty data for 2013 brought renewed attention to the apparent…
 
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    Vox - All

  • Forensic expert: Michael Brown autopsy suggests he wasn't shot with his hands up

    German Lopez
    22 Oct 2014 | 11:30 am
    The official St. Louis County autopsy report on Michael Brown, who was killed by Ferguson, Missouri, police officer Darren Wilson on August 9, has been obtained by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Two independent forensic experts told the newspaper that the report indicates the first shot was fired at close range and that Brown was later shot without his hands up. The latter conclusion contradicts the statements of multiple eyewitnesses to the shooting, who say that after a scuffle between the two by Wilson's police car, Brown ran, and then turned and put his hands up before he was shot. The…
  • Living through Ebola

    Julia Belluz
    22 Oct 2014 | 11:22 am
  • There's a partial solar eclipse Thursday afternoon. Here's how to see it

    Joseph Stromberg
    22 Oct 2014 | 11:20 am
    On Thursday afternoon and early evening, people across the United States, Canada, and Mexico will be treated to a pretty cool astronomical phenomenon: a partial solar eclipse. The moon will pass between Earth and the sun and appear to take a nicely rounded bite out of the sun for a period anywhere between a few minutes (for people on the East coast) to over an hour (for those on the West coast). The sky won't go dim (that only happens in a total eclipse), but it'll still be an interesting sight worth checking out. There is, however, a caveat: you definitely shouldn't look at the eclipse…
  • The DCCC just sent the saddest political fundraising email ever

    Andrew Prokop
    22 Oct 2014 | 11:10 am
    Democratic campaign commitees' ridiculous, over-the-top email fundraising appeals have become a running joke of the 2014 cycle (example: "We're on the verge of the Dem-pocalypse"). The latest one from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, via Zeke Miller, is perhaps the most ridiculous yet: Why is the DCCC using these silly-seeming tactics? According to the Washington Post's Ed O'Keefe, it's because they've been tested extensively and they seem to work: Democrats also say they aren't worried about the risk of backlash - because the messages appear to be working. The DCCC has…
  • These midterm elections will be the most expensive ever. Easily.

    Andrew Prokop
    22 Oct 2014 | 11:00 am
    Total spending on this year's Congressional elections will likely top $3.9 billion, according to anew projection from the invaluable Center for Responsive Politics. This would make 2014 the most expensive Congressional election cycle in history, easily topping the $3.6 billion spent in 2010 and 2012: The midterms as a whole will likely cost considerably more. This figure doesn't count any of the contested governors' races around the country. And for Congressional races, it leaves out spending by outside groups on "issue ads" that don't have to be reported to the FEC. Based on what has been…
 
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    Commentary - Money, Banking and Financial Markets

  • Rolling the dice, again

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    21 Oct 2014 | 5:57 am
    The headline on Reuters at Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:05pm EDT read “U.S. regulator targeting lower down payments on mortgages.” At first, we thought perhaps the headline was from 2004, not 2014. After the financial crisis of 2007-2009, it seemed inconceivable that U.S. authorities would again put some of the largest U.S. intermediaries – or the taxpayers who provide for them – at risk of failure. Sadly, we were wrong.In a speech to the Mortgage Bankers Association, Melvin L. Watt, the Director of the agency that regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, made the following statement:“To…
  • How big should central bank balance sheets be?

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    20 Oct 2014 | 5:41 am
    In 2007, the Fed’s balance sheet was less than $1 trillion. Today, it is nearly $4.5 trillion. The U.S. experience is far from unique. Since 2007, global central bank balance sheets have nearly tripled to more than $22 trillion as of mid-2014. And, the increase is split evenly between advanced and emerging market economies (EMEs) (see chart).Central Bank Assets (Trillions of U.S. Dollars) Source: National central banks. So what’s the right size? The answer depends on the policy goals and the nature of the financial system. In the case of the Fed, we expect that it will be able to achieve…
  • Living Wills or Phoenix Plans: Making sure banks can rise from their ashes

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    13 Oct 2014 | 5:28 am
    Wills are for when you die. Living wills guide your affairs when you lose the capacity to act.We’re all mortal and fragile – not just people, but firms and banks, too. The Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 requires systemic intermediaries (and many others) to create “living wills” to guide their orderly resolution in bad times.In August, these Dodd-Frank living wills made front-page business news when the FDIC and the Fed rejected those submitted by the biggest banks as inadequate. That should come as no surprise. In their current form, we doubt that living wills would do much to secure…
  • Making Finance Safe

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    6 Oct 2014 | 5:30 am
    Walter Wriston, Citicorp’s chief for nearly two decades until 1984, used to argue that banks’ didn’t need much, if any, capital. The global financial crisis put that view to rest. Today, we know that if banks are going to be able to absorb large unforeseen losses that would otherwise threaten financial stability, they need to finance themselves with equity, not just debt.But how much capital do banks need to have to ensure the financial system is safe? Even after the financial crisis, answers to this question range widely, making it the single most contentious source of debate among…
  • The dollar is now everyone's problem

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    29 Sep 2014 | 6:13 am
    The global financial crisis started in 2007 when European banks came under increasing strain. If forced to specify the crisis kickoff, we would pick Thursday, August 9, the day that BNP Paribas halted redemptions from three investment funds because it couldn’t value their holdings of U.S. mortgages. Responding to the ensuing market scramble for liquidity, the ECB injected €95 billion that day into the European banking system and the Federal Reserve put $24 billion in theirs. Today, with the benefit of hindsight, these numbers appear quaint, but then they seemed enormous. (You can find a…
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    Credence Independent Advisors

  • Markets rally on ECB stimulus hopes

    Chris Ferguson
    21 Oct 2014 | 11:44 pm
    London’s FTSE 100 jumped 1.7pc following a report the European Central Bank is considering buying corporate bonds to bolster the eurozone economy. Talk of a central bank taking action to bolster the economy once again spurred a rally in global stock markets. Less than a week after equities were buoyed by suggestions the US Federal Reserve could delay the end of its quantitative easing programme, investors were cheered by a report the European Central Bank might extend its own stimulus measures. The FTSE 100 jumped 105.26 points, or 1.7pc, to 6,372.33 – recovering all of Monday’s…
  • Eurozone starts QE-lite as currency bloc faces fresh crisis

    Thomas Crowe
    21 Oct 2014 | 1:15 am
    The European Central Bank has begun snapping up covered bonds, one part of a three-pronged trident of measures aimed at reviving the flagging eurozone economy. The European Central Bank (ECB) has begun purchases of some French assets, in an attempt to revive a flagging eurozone. Monday’s purchases marked the start of the covered bond purchase programme (CBPP3), and is one of three new tools intended to stimulate the euro area economy. By buying covered bonds – bonds backed by underlying loans – the ECB intends to expand its balance sheet, and boost demand in the region. The ECB…
  • Pensions rule change could see millions of savers ditch gold-plated pensions

    Glenn Scott-Ellis
    20 Oct 2014 | 4:36 am
    New rights to access pension cash early will tempt more people away from defined benefit schemes, according to a study. Millions of savers will give up their gold-plated pensions to gain earlier access to their retirement savings, according to a report to be published this week, in a sweeping change that will help plug pension deficits at the country’s biggest companies. New rights to take money out of pension pots only apply to people saving through defined contribution schemes, leaving out those with defined benefit pensions, also known as final salary schemes. A study by actuaries at…
  • Markets may have over-reacted to slowdown: BoE’s Haldane

    Dermot Crawford
    19 Oct 2014 | 5:07 am
    (Reuters) – Investors may have over-reacted to signs of economic slowdown, although they have been right to price in weaker global growth prospects, the Bank of England’s chief economist said in a Sunday newspaper interview. “What we have seen over the past week is financial markets catching up with the data,” Andrew Haldane told Britain’s Observer newspaper. “Possibly over-reacting to the data but certainly catching up, because I think there has been a drip, drip, drip – globally I mean – of slightly below-par news for several months.” In a wild…
  • Pound spikes as Mark Carney says first interest rate rise ‘getting closer’

    Jamil Al Maani
    26 Sep 2014 | 1:12 am
    Bank of England Governor warns households to prepare for higher borrowing costs. Households should prepare for higher borrowing costs in the coming months because the point at which interest rates will start to rise is “getting closer”, according to the Governor of the Bank of England. Mark Carney said strong growth and rapid job creation meant the judgment about when to start raising rates from a record low of 0.5pc had become “more balanced”. “Relative to the recent past, the economic outlook is much improved,” he said at a conference in Wales on Thursday. “While there is…
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    iTestCash.com - News

  • $500,000 in Fake Merchandise Confiscated at East Indianapolis Store

    Alexander Reichmann
    13 Oct 2014 | 12:36 pm
    This past Sunday there was a big hit on a store in Indianapolis.  The store was selling hundreds of thousands dollars in fake merchandise posing as brands such as Nike, Gucci, Oakley, UGG, Polo, Otterbox, Coach, NBA, NFL, NHL, and MLB. The items confiscated included clothing such as shoes, hats and shirts, along with other items like cell phone cases and unlicensed copies of DVD movies. According to the reports, the Indiana Excise officers searched the store from about 11 a.m. until about 5:30 p.m. totaling more than 6 hours spent searching and retrieving items from the store. A trailer and…
  • $1000 Cheeseburger at Sonic: Why Businesses Need to Worry About Counterfeit Bills

    Alexander Reichmann
    16 Sep 2014 | 10:48 am
    Counterfeit money can turn up when you least expect it. This week, for example, a 22-year-old man named Christopher R. Cascio was arrested for attempting to pass off counterfeit money at Sonic, a popular fast-food restaurant chain. He was arraigned on Wednesday and is currently being held on $1,000 bail- a very expensive cheeseburger. That raises the question though, why do people do it? Passing off large bills for big ticket items might have some logic, but why bother to go through the trouble of obtaining counterfeit money only to exchange it for a $3 cheeseburger? Cascio isn’t alone. The…
  • 4 Reasons Why You Should Be Concerned About Counterfeit Currency

    Alexander Reichmann
    13 Aug 2014 | 1:29 pm
    With the modern explosion of technology and growth of electronic payments, most small businesses and individuals are no longer worried about counterfeit currency, as online and electronic fraud has become a bigger, scarier problem. Although it may seem like online fraud is more common and favored amongst fraudsters in 2014, small business owners mustn’t forget about the very real threat that is counterfeit currency. Even with all the clever, difficult-to-imitate features that the Federal Reserve has put on notes over the years, criminals still manage to counterfeit notes with the use of…
  • Counterfeit Money Being Passed at Garage Sales

    Alexander Reichmann
    3 Aug 2014 | 4:16 pm
    A news report from Kake gives notice that counterfeit money is said to be being used at garage sales in Wichita, Kansas. This likely isn't a surprise to people following news on the topic. We reported on our website a few years ago when a report came out that fake money was used at a lemonade stand which is similar to this story in how it could effect a small sale operation. This article from Kansas says that the Wichita police have seen several casess like this in the past few months of fake money being used at garage sales. They also mention that you can buy a special pen to detect if the…
  • Police Officer Arrested for Counterfeit Money and Speeding

    Alexander Reichmann
    24 Jul 2014 | 11:34 am
    By Alex Reichmann A Police Officer from North Charleston was arrested on 1am Wednesday morning after being pulled over for speeding over 100 mph and being found in possession of a counterfeit 100 dollar bill. A flask that smelled like alcohol was also found in the drivers seat of Officer Huggins car. According to the report he did not seem to drunk despite his speeding.   At the time of this report, the flask and fake bill are being held as evidence in this case. This is a twist on the usual counterfeit money story. Often it is people part of a gang using large amounts of fake money around…
 
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    Republic 3.0

  • Not in school, not working – and not voting

    Anne Kim
    21 Oct 2014 | 11:55 am
    5.6 million young Americans are neither working nor in school. And only 1 in 4 young Americans plans to vote this fall. Shouldn't the alarm bells be ringing? The post Not in school, not working – and not voting appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • Millennials: Speak out on November 4

    Rep. Patrick Murphy
    19 Oct 2014 | 9:00 pm
    Millennials have a major stake in the outcome of the 2014 midterms and can't afford to sit on the sidelines. The post Millennials: Speak out on November 4 appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • The JOBS Act two years later: More jobs and more IPOs

    Anne Kim
    17 Oct 2014 | 9:09 am
    Companies that have gone public under the auspices of the JOBS Act have also grown their payrolls by 18 percent. The post The JOBS Act two years later: More jobs and more IPOs appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • Trade policy Manichaeism – Why the trade debate is stuck and how to move it forward

    Robert D. Atkinson
    12 Oct 2014 | 9:00 pm
    Both sides of the trade debate are headed toward dead ends. It's time to acknowledge some fundamental truths about trade and globalization. The post Trade policy Manichaeism – Why the trade debate is stuck and how to move it forward appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • The myth of the “independent” voter

    Stefan Hankin
    9 Oct 2014 | 4:22 am
    An exclusive new poll finds that just 5 percent of voters are truly “independent” – ideologically centrist and unaffiliated with either political party. The post The myth of the “independent” voter appeared first on Republic 3.0.
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