Economics

  • Most Topular Stories

  • Top-Down approach is not working… Go Bottom-Up

    Angry Bear
    Edward Lambert
    21 Nov 2014 | 9:55 am
    Economics is full of ideas for fiscal & monetary policies. But these policies are Top-down approaches. They work through investment and the financial system. Yes, China lowers its benchmark rate from 6.0% to 5.6%, but China is supporting a failing policy of over-investment. Debt rises… and non-performing loans are increasing. Yes, Draghi wants to do […]
  • Spin Alert: DOE Loans Are Losing Money, Not Making Profits

    Donald Marron
    Donald
    17 Nov 2014 | 8:32 am
    The Department of Energy snookered the media last week with a report that seems to show that its clean energy lending programs are profitable. “Remember Solyndra? Those loans are making money,” went a typical headline. Unfortunately, that’s not true. Taxpayers are losing money on DOE lending. Less than originally expected, and less than you would expect given media coverage of Solyndra, Fisker, and a few other failed loans. But smaller losses are still losses, not profits. To understand DOE’s spin, consider a simple example. Suppose your spouse borrows $10,000 from a bank at 5 percent…
  • Me, Myself, and Abe

    Paul Krugman
    By Paul Krugman
    21 Nov 2014 | 6:34 am
    For once, a real limousine liberal.
  • Reply From Pettis on Spain; Prisoner's Dilemma in Reverse; EMU End Game

    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
    21 Nov 2014 | 12:33 pm
    In response to Spain Needs to Debate Leaving the Euro; Tooth Fairy Economics I received a nice email from Michael Pettis confirming my translation was correct. He also attached the original article in English.Michael Writes ...Thank's Mish. I am attaching the original, but the translations you got were basically right and covered the main points, which you understand anyway. Excessive debt impedes growth, and very few sovereign debt crises in history have been resolved by growthThe only other way to "resolve" a debt crisis is to assign the losses to one group or anotherIt is usually workers…
  • In Early Polling, God Remains Undecided On Pick For 2016 GOP Nominee

    The American Prospect
    Paul Waldman
    21 Nov 2014 | 11:16 am
    Had you asked me which of the 20 or so potential Republican presidential candidates would be first to claim that his candidacy was endorsed by God himself, I would have said Ben Carson, who has the necessary combination of deep religious faith and self-aggrandizing nuttiness. And today we learn that while the creator of the universe is still mulling his options, he's not exactly giving Carson a no: In an interview on Thursday with Pat Robertson's Christian Broadcasting Network, Carson said he felt the hand of the Lord pushing him toward the White House. "Has He grabbed you by the collar yet?"…
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    Real Time Economics

  • It’s Up To Congress How to Fill My Job, New York Fed Chief Tells Senator

    Victoria McGrane
    21 Nov 2014 | 12:57 pm
    William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, speaks during a Senate Banking Subcommittee hearing in Washington, D.C., on Friday. Bloomberg News If Congress wants the president to pick the New York Fed chief, that’s just fine with William Dudley. “It’s the province of the Congress to decide how the Federal Reserve Act is written and how the president of the Federal Reserve Bank in New York and other Federal Reserve presidents are selected,” Mr. Dudley told Sen. Jack Reed (D., R.I.) during a heated hearing Friday. Mr. Reed was asking whether Mr. Dudley objected to…
  • 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

    Kathleen Madigan
    21 Nov 2014 | 12:21 pm
    In the U.S., financial markets, government agencies and most businesses will close next Thursday to observe the Thanksgiving holiday. Before Americans go off to a day of thanks, turkey and football, the shortened workweek will bring a long list of economic reports. Here are five items to watch:
  • 5 Things to Know About Big Banks, the Federal Reserve and Policing Wall Street

    WSJ Staff
    21 Nov 2014 | 11:43 am
    A Senate hearing this week raised the question of whether the Fed has fully addressed its alleged shortcomings as a regulator of big banks. Here are five things to know.
  • Fed’s Bullard Says Markets Misread Him In October Bond-Buying Dustup

    Michael S. Derby
    21 Nov 2014 | 10:22 am
    The last month has been a challenging time for St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. In the view of many market observers, the veteran central banker has sent conflicting messages about the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate policy, injecting uncertainty into the central bank outlook at a time when markets and other officials were largely on the same page. Markets were rattled by comments Mr. Bullard made in a Bloomberg interview just ahead of the late October Fed policy meeting. He said the central bank might want to consider extending a bond-buying stimulusthat was almost…
  • N.Y. Fed President Dudley: I’m More of a Fire Warden, Not a Cop on the Beat

    Victoria McGrane
    21 Nov 2014 | 8:36 am
    William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, listens during a Senate Banking Subcommittee hearing in Washington, D.C., on Friday. Bloomberg News Federal Reserve officials are infamous for their love of using metaphors to explain complex monetary policy. Think taking away punch bowls when the party gets swinging. During a tense hearing Friday, the metaphors extended to the Fed’s other key duty: overseeing the nation’s largest financial firms, a role that grew for the central bank after the 2008 crisis. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) during the hearing. Bloomberg…
 
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    naked capitalism

  • 2:00PM Water Cooler 11/21/14

    Lambert Strether
    21 Nov 2014 | 10:58 am
    Today's Water Cooler: Mexico protests, Ferguson grand jury machinations, looting Whole Foods, and rape culture at the University of Virginia
  • Masaccio: Piketty Shreds Marginal Productivity as Neoclassical Justification for Supersized Pay

    Ed Walker
    21 Nov 2014 | 6:55 am
    Yves here. One of the main agendas of neoclassical economics is to give Panglossian defenses of the current order a veneer of intellectual legitimacy. If our system is the result of individuals and businesses behaving in logical ways, at least in the minds of economists, surely the outcome is inevitable, and therefore virtuous, or else those operators would do things differently. The Big Lie in all of this is that neoclassical economics takes power completely out of the equation. While it does assume selfishness, in that everyone is out or himself to maximize his utility, it also assumes…
  • Links 11/21/14

    Yves Smith
    21 Nov 2014 | 3:56 am
  • Obama Pretends to Put Immigration Reform in Play

    Yves Smith
    21 Nov 2014 | 3:54 am
    I'm reluctant to write about immigration reform, given that when the topic of illegal aliens comes up in posts on labor policy, too often there's an upsurge of xenophobic, even racist, comments and a dearth of thoughtful discussion. So let this introduction serve as a warning: I'd like to use this piece to serve as a point of departure for discussing what a good immigration reform policy would look like, so we can have benchmarks for measuring what comes out of Obama's promise that he would move immigration reform reform forward in an address Thursday evening. But bear in mind that Obama's…
  • Private Equity Firms Start ‘Fessing Up to Cheating

    Yves Smith
    21 Nov 2014 | 3:52 am
    The Wall Street Journal describes how some private equity firms are attempting to clean up their act by admitting to dubious practices in revised regulatory filings with the SEC. There's a wee problem with this approach. Securities law is not like the Catholic Church, where confession and a promise not to sin again buys you redemption.
 
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    re: The Auditors

  • Piling Up For PwC

    Francine
    18 Nov 2014 | 3:48 pm
      Update for breaking news: The Wall Street Journal’s Michael Rapoport reports tonight that the PCAOB is looking into PwC’s tax advice to Caterpillar for auditor independence violations. The schemes were the subject of a hearing held last April by Senator Carl Levin where PwC partners made some embarrassing admissions. The regulator’s review dates back several months and hasn’t previously been reported. The review follows an April request from Sen. Carl Levin (D., Mich.) for the PCAOB to look at the matter after he alleged earlier this year that Caterpillar had deferred…
  • Luxembourg Tax Leaks Put PwC On The Defensive

    Francine
    13 Nov 2014 | 10:01 am
    The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) and its media partners released 28,000 Luxembourg tax ruling documents on November 5. These documents were all prepared by global audit firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) for 340 corporate clients – 548 comfort letters issued from 2002 to 2010.  The ICIJ and several other newspapers and magazines all over the world reported on the stories embedded in these documents. (The hashtag for Twitter for the ICIJ series is #LuxLeaks.) I was quoted in one of the stories that was translated to several languages for media outlets in…
  • Support This University of Notre Dame Accounting Grad Salary Survey!

    Francine
    11 Nov 2014 | 6:13 am
    Professor Jennifer Sustersic Stevens, PhD, CPA at Mendoza College of Business at the University of Notre Dame has asked me to post her request for your participation in a survey that will support important accounting research. Please complete the survey and I promise to report on the results when a working paper is published in the spring. My first job was at Continental Illinois National Bank and Trust in Chicago as a Financial Information Systems Training (FIST) Program trainee. After a fifteen week training program I went to internal audit, reviewing Personal Trusts that held alternative…
  • New At Forbes Online: The Precarious Financial Position Of The New York Times

    Francine
    11 Nov 2014 | 3:33 am
    Update: The New York Times Public Editor Margaret Sullivan published a column, “Shaky Times, Strong Journalism”, shortly after the 3rd Quarter earnings announcement with several critiques of the results and commentary.  My column in Forbes was cited. She said I provided a provided “a tough, and rather dire, analysis of the issues.” This post was originally published on October 29,2014. I published some New York Times numbers over at Forbes.com, “Time Is Running Short For The New York Times”, in anticipation of the company’s 3Q earnings announcement…
  • Update: The Shoemaker’s Children… The Big Four And Their Own Broker-Dealers

    Francine
    27 Oct 2014 | 6:24 am
    Did you know that each of the Big Four audit firms and some of the next tier also run SEC-registered broker-dealers? Although they don’t hold customer money, yet, they do count on the capital from their own partners to fund them. Given the poor record the auditors, all of them, have auditing broker-dealers, you’d imagine that the Big Four would take special care to make sure the audits of their own firms followed all the rules all the time and were of the highest quality, beyond reproach. You’d be imagining wrong. Update:  One of my loyal lawyer readers asked the salient…
 
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    The American Prospect

  • In Early Polling, God Remains Undecided On Pick For 2016 GOP Nominee

    Paul Waldman
    21 Nov 2014 | 11:16 am
    Had you asked me which of the 20 or so potential Republican presidential candidates would be first to claim that his candidacy was endorsed by God himself, I would have said Ben Carson, who has the necessary combination of deep religious faith and self-aggrandizing nuttiness. And today we learn that while the creator of the universe is still mulling his options, he's not exactly giving Carson a no: In an interview on Thursday with Pat Robertson's Christian Broadcasting Network, Carson said he felt the hand of the Lord pushing him toward the White House. "Has He grabbed you by the collar yet?"…
  • Why There Won't Be Any Grand Immigration Confrontation Between Obama and Republicans

    Paul Waldman
    21 Nov 2014 | 8:31 am
    Republicans are, as expected, utterly livid about President Obama's announcement last night of executive actions he'll be taking on immigration, even as they completely ignore the substance of the moves (some of which are things they support). If one of Obama's goals was to divide Republicans against themselves, he certainly seems to have succeeded; as Robert Costa reported late last night, Republicans have "been thrust back into the same cycle of intraparty warfare that has largely defined the GOP during the Obama years and that has hurt the party's brand among the broader electorate." If…
  • Congresswoman-Elect Mia Love: Personification of GOP Hypocrisy on Immigration

    Nathalie Baptiste
    21 Nov 2014 | 7:12 am
    (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer) Republican Mia Love, center left, celebrates with her father, Jean Maxime Bourdeau, after winning the race for Utah's 4th Congressional District during a GOP election night watch party, Tuesday, November 4, 2014, in Salt Lake City.  On November 4, 2014, the Republican Party made black history. Mia Love is the first Republican black woman elected to Congress. Black women aren’t exactly clamoring to join the Republican Party, so it’s obvious why this is an impressive feat. Love also became another "first" that night—the first Haitian-American elected to Congress.
  • Obama's Immigration Move About Much More Than Politics

    Harold Meyerson
    20 Nov 2014 | 1:29 pm
    (Esther Yu-Hsi Lee for ThinkProgress) Demonstrators at a protest on the national Mall in Washington, D.C., on October 8, 2013. This essay originally appeared on the op-ed page of The Washington Post, where the author has a column. The commemorations of the 25th anniversary of the Berlin Wall’s fall have thrust into the public spotlight the border guard who ordered the gates opened. The subject of both a new German-language book and film, one-time Stasi Lt. Col. Harald Jäger has recounted why he defied his orders. And his story couldn’t be more relevant to the debate consuming our…
  • Why Republicans Are So Mad About Obama's Immigration Order

    Paul Waldman
    20 Nov 2014 | 10:39 am
    President Obama is going to detail some executive actions he plans to take on immigration in a speech tonight, and you may have noticed that the debate over this move is almost completely void of discussion of the particulars. Instead, we're discussing whether Obama is exceeding his powers. That's an important question to address, but it also frees Republicans (for the moment anyway) of having to visibly argue for things like deporting the parents of kids who are already allowed to stay in the United States. One thing you'll notice as you watch coverage of the issue is that Republicans are…
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    Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

  • For the Weekend...

    J. Bradford DeLong
    21 Nov 2014 | 3:51 pm
    All the leaves are brown and the sky is gray. I've been for a walk on a winter's day. I'd be safe and warm if I was in L.A.; California dreamin' on such a winter's day. Stopped in to a church I passed along the way. Well I got down on my knees and I pretend to pray. You know the preacher's eyes were cold; He knows I'm gonna stay. California dreamin' on such a winter's day. All the leaves are brown and the sky is gray. I've been for a walk on a winter's day. If I didn't tell her I could leave today; California dreamin' on such a winter's day. California dreamin' on such a winter's day.
  • Liveblogging World War II: November 21, 1944: The Sinking of the Battleship Kongo

    J. Bradford DeLong
    21 Nov 2014 | 6:08 am
    Commander Eli Reich: [World War II Today: Off Taiwan): 0020: Radar contact at 44,000 yards, on our starboard quarter, (Ship contact #3) three pips, very clear and distinct. Came to normal approach, went ahead flank on four engines, and commenced tracking. Overcast sky, no soon, visibility about 1500 yards, calm sea. 0043: Two large pips and two smaller pips now outlined on radar screen at a range of 35,000 yards. These are the greatest ranges we have ever obtained on our radar. Pips so large, at so great a range, we first suspected land. It was possible to lobe switch on the larger targets at…
  • Noted for Your Lunchtime Procrastination for November 21, 2014

    J. Bradford DeLong
    20 Nov 2014 | 8:51 am
    Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog Night Thoughts on Martin Wolf's Shocking Shifts: Daily Focus Over at Grasping Reality: Whence the Right-Wing Confidence Back a Year Ago in ObamaCare's Failure? Hoisted from Comments: "Tom" on the Absence of Right-Wing Health Care Reform Policies Paul Krugman: The Unwisdom of Crowding Out David Altig: Monetary Policy Is an Exercise in Risk Management Robert Rubin: A First-Person History Lesson Paul Krugman: Structural Deformity Nick Bunker: How low can the U.S. unemployment rate go? Plus: Things to Read at Lunchtime on November 20, 2014 Must- and…
  • Over at Equitable Growth: Night Thoughts on Martin Wolf's Shocking Shifts: Daily Focus

    J. Bradford DeLong
    20 Nov 2014 | 5:19 am
    Over at Equitable Growth: Martin Wolf's column this week contains a very nice precis of the main argument of his recent The Shifts and the Shocks: Martin Wolf: The Curse of Weak Global Demand: "This feeble performance--even the 6 per cent rise in real demand in the US... ...over more than six years is pathetic by historical standards--occurred despite the most aggressive monetary policies in history.... Yet this has not been nearly enough.... How do we explain such weak demand?... Three sets.... The first... stresses the post-crisis overhang of private debt and the damage to confidence caused…
  • Liveblogging the Revoutionary War: November 20, 1776: The "Battle" of Fort Lee

    J. Bradford DeLong
    20 Nov 2014 | 3:10 am
    The Battle of Fort Lee: Gen. William Howe ordered Gen. Lord Charles Cornwallis to capture Fort Lee. The plan was to trap the American army between the Hackensack River and the Hudson River. With a force of 4,000-6,000 British soldiers, Cornwallis crossed the Hudson River in a rainstorm and landed about 6 miles north of the fort and marched south. Gen. George Washington sent word of the British advance to the Continental Congress and suggested that Philadelphia would likely become the next target. The news came as a shock to many of the delegates, who had failed to grasp how badly the war was…
 
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    Calculated Risk

  • Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Could Reach 17 Million" SAAR in November

    Bill McBride
    21 Nov 2014 | 2:13 pm
    The automakers will report November vehicle sales on Tuesday, December 2nd. Sales in October were at 16.35 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in November might be at or above 17 million SAAR.Note:  There were 25 selling days in November this year compared to 26 last year.Here is an early forecast (I'll post more next week).From WardsAuto: Forecast: SAAR Could Reach 17 Million for Second Time in Four MonthsA WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. light-vehicle sales to reach a 17 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate for just the second time…
  • DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 2.3% year-over-year in September

    Bill McBride
    21 Nov 2014 | 10:33 am
    The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:Travel on all roads and streets changed by 2.3% (5.6 billion vehicle miles) for September 2014 as compared with September 2013.Travel for the month is estimated to be 246.6 billion vehicle milesCumulative Travel for 2014 changed by 0.7% (16.7 billion vehicle miles).The following graph shows the rolling 12 month total vehicle miles driven. The rolling 12 month total is slowly moving up, after moving sideways for a few years. Click on graph for larger image.In the early '80s, miles driven (rolling 12 months) stayed below the previous peak for 39…
  • Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing "Activity Expanded Further" in November

    Bill McBride
    21 Nov 2014 | 8:47 am
    From the Kansas City Fed: Growth in Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Expanded Further The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the November Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity expanded at a slightly faster pace in November, and producers’ expectations for future activity increased further.“Regional factory growth improved somewhat in November, although many contacts reported that the cost to retain or hire quality…
  • BLS: Thirty-four States had Unemployment Rate Decreases in October

    Bill McBride
    21 Nov 2014 | 7:14 am
    From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment SummaryRegional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed in October. Thirty-four states and the District of Columbia had unemployment rate decreases from September, 5 states had increases, and 11 states had no change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.... Georgia had the highest unemployment rate among the states in October, 7.7 percent. North Dakota again had the lowest jobless rate, 2.8 percent. Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the current unemployment rate for each state (red),…
  • Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies decreased in October, Lowest in Seven Years

    Bill McBride
    21 Nov 2014 | 4:31 am
    According to Black Knight's First Look report for October, the percent of loans delinquent decreased in October compared to September, and declined by 12% year-over-year.  Mortgage delinquencies are at the lowest level since November 2007.Also the percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined further in October and were down 33% over the last year.  Foreclosure inventory was at the lowest level since February 2008.Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 5.44% in October, down from 5.67% in…
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    Crooked Timber

  • Love Come Down

    Belle Waring
    20 Nov 2014 | 9:05 pm
    I have all these songs cued up and stuff I wanted to say about The Dazz Band (it’s literally disco jazz! What is not to love?!), but then I listened to this track five times in a row today, and I thought, ‘Belle, old bean,’ I thought to myself, ‘why are you being so aintry with “Love Come Down” and bogarting this when you could be sharing it with everybody at Crooked Timber? Why?’ Readers, there is no good answer to this question, so here is Evelyn Champagne King. The first time I listened to this song about a month ago I thought I had a problem with…
  • Why is comedy more painful than tragedy?

    John Holbo
    19 Nov 2014 | 5:27 pm
    So there’s this bit by Aristotle (famous philosopher) where he discusses tragedy. (If you don’t know it … well, you should Know Your Meme. Do some research, already.) Why do good people like to watch bad things happening to good people, so long as it’s fictional? Katharsis? Related topics: why do people like watching horror movies, since they are scary, and being scared is, apparently, unpleasant? I don’t have a positive thesis about this, but it strikes me that focus on cases in which the Worst Things happen on stage (or screen) is not focus on the Hardest…
  • The World Is Squared: Episode 4 – In Hot Places

    Daniel
    17 Nov 2014 | 9:49 pm
    And the travelogue continues – this chapter covers my family’s visits to Jordan and to Sri Lanka. The next episode will take us to a seaside cottage in Bali … 1. Jordan motorways by night So, out on the road in a Group B Mazda, the first car we’ve hired so far that has enough room in the boot for all our luggage. And the first culture shock is achieved. There is something really strangely terrifying about rolling down the road and not being able to read any of the signs, not even phonetically, not even to recognise them as writing or tell if you’re seeing the…
  • Sunday photoblogging: Clifton steps

    Chris Bertram
    15 Nov 2014 | 11:43 pm
  • Darkness Visible: The Depression of George Scialabba

    Corey Robin
    13 Nov 2014 | 1:38 pm
    Many of you will know George Scialabba simply as “geo,” one of our most thoughtful, incisive, and funny commenters at Crooked Timber. You may not know, however, that George has a day job. Two, actually. One is as the manager of a building at Harvard. The other is as one of our most brilliant contemporary essayists and critics. I discovered George’s essays about a decade and a half ago, and I’ve been hooked ever since. One other fact about George you may not know: he has been suffering from acute depression for nearly a half-century. In The Baffler today, he has a…
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    Dealbreaker

  • Write-Offs: 11.21.14

    Dealbreaker
    21 Nov 2014 | 2:46 pm
    $$$ Citigroup Said to Be Ousted From ECB FX Group for Rigging [Bloomberg] $$$ Dow Chemical, Loeb Settle Board Dispute [WSJ] $$$ The legal “loophole” that allowed one of the world’s largest hedge funds to make anonymous bets against listed companies must be closed, according to one of the senior European lawmakers who framed the… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.
  • Bonus Expectations Got You Down? Boss Riding Your Ass? Quit And Support Yourself Via Fantasy Football

    Bess Levin
    21 Nov 2014 | 2:25 pm
    When he woke up on the morning of Oct. 5 — a beautiful fall day when many New Yorkers started raking leaves — Mark Guindi never imagined he would rake in something else: a cool $12,000. “It was the craziest thing,” says the handsome 24-year-old Brooklynite, who scored big in a fantasy football tourney called… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: Compensation, fantasy football, just a suggestion, Mark Guindi, the upper leagues of fantasy football
  • Deal Judge: We’re Going To Need A New Master of Coin

    Elie Mystal
    21 Nov 2014 | 1:30 pm
    Ed. note: This is a new weekly column by Elie Mystal, Managing Editor of Above the Law Redline, wrapping up the week that was in law and finance. Elie is not a practicing attorney, and anything he says that you listen to can and will be used against you. Issue #1: How can you get… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: bitcoins, CFTC, Deal Judge, Iceland, insider-trading, prison time
  • ‘Exploiting A Loophole In Banking Regulation And Using It To Unduly Influence Commodities Markets’ Is Not One Of Goldman’s Best Trading Ideas For Next Year

    Jon Shazar
    21 Nov 2014 | 12:30 pm
    To be fair, great idea though it may be, it is available only to a very limited set of investors, in this case a set of one. But if you can’t beat the Brotherhood of the Sach—and you cannot—you can at least join them in shorting the euro, buying 10-year T-bills at between 2% and 3%, and… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.
  • Mathew Martoma Is In Miami

    Bess Levin
    21 Nov 2014 | 12:12 pm
    Unfortunately, this is a business, not pleasure trip: yesterday marked Day 1 of 3,285 of his sentence for orchestrating the largest insider trading scheme ever. Mathew Martoma has started his nine-year prison term for insider trading at a “low security” federal prison in Miami at a time that most of the former hedge fund traders… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: insider-trading, jail time, Mathew Martoma, Miami, prison, SAC Capital alums
 
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    Econbrowser

  • The Japanese GDP Release: The Bad and the Not so Bad

    Menzie Chinn
    17 Nov 2014 | 10:56 pm
    Instead of a 0.2% q/q increase as in the WSJ survey, GDP declined 0.4% [0] [1] It’s pretty bad news, but here are a couple of observations, following up on my previous post on Japan. Figure 1: Log GDP (blue) and consumption (red), in Ch.05¥, normalized to 2012Q4=0. Source: Cabinet Office, and author’s calculations. First, the drop is in output is definitely not a positive development. However, the good news is that the negative news should certainly solidify support for delaying the second part of the consumption tax increase. It should also rein in resistance to the expansionary…
  • Social Security and Paid-Up Workers

    James_Hamilton
    16 Nov 2014 | 11:58 am
    Americans are living longer and retiring earlier. But how, as an individual or as a country, can you finance a 30-year retirement with a 40-year career? Stanford Professor John Shoven recently visited UCSD and presented some interesting policy suggestions. Probability that a 65-year-old male will live to the age indicated on the horizontal axis as of 1955 (in blue) and 2014 (in red), along with one example of a 65-year-old male in 2014. Source: Shoven (2014). Professor Shoven noted that the current structure of Social Security in some cases amounts to a pure tax on those who work for more…
  • Preventing a Global Slowdown

    Menzie Chinn
    14 Nov 2014 | 11:42 am
    Action is needed in the eurozone and Japan, according to the Treasury Secretary. From Secretary Lew’s recent speech: “In short, status quo policies in Europe have not achieved our common G-20 objective of strong, sustainable, and balanced growth. The ECB has taken forceful steps to support the economy through accommodative monetary policy. But as recent economic performance suggests, this alone has not proven sufficient to restore healthy growth. Resolute action by national authorities and other European bodies is needed to reduce the risk that the region could fall into a deeper…
  • IMF Annual Research Conference on “Cross-Border Spillovers”

    Menzie Chinn
    12 Nov 2014 | 8:37 pm
    The proceedings start tomorrow (Thursday). My colleague Charles Engel covers Policy Cooperation, Incomplete Markets and Risk Sharing, while other topics include ECB monetary policy spillovers, Fed policy and foreign bond yields, linkages across sovereign bond yields, fiscal shock effects, capital controls, currency unions and capital markets, and input trade linkages. The Mundell-Fleming lecture will be given by Hélène Rey, “Monetary Policy and International Capital Flows”. Here is the program. And here is my take on spillovers (with Joshua Aizenman and Hiro Ito),…
  • (Fiscally) Bleeding Kansas

    Menzie Chinn
    12 Nov 2014 | 2:53 pm
    The deterioration in Kansas state finances not only continues unabated — it is seemingly accelerating. Figure 1 presents the evolution of estimates of Kansas state general fund receipts. Figure 1: Kansas state general fund receipts, as estimated by Kansas Legislative Research Department and Kansas Division of the Budget June 16, 2014 (blue), adjusted for legislative changes during veto session Nov. 10, 2014 (red), and updated estimates as of Nov. 10, 2014 (black). Shaded area are forecasts as of November 2014. Source: Kansas Legislative Research Department and Kansas Division of the…
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    EconLog: Library of Economics and Liberty

  • The Lawful Neutral Case for Deferred Action

    Bryan Caplan
    21 Nov 2014 | 11:52 am
    (November 21, 2014 11:52 AM, by Bryan Caplan) If life were classic Dungeons & Dragons, many opponents of immigration would be Lawful Neutral.  The law is the law; good or bad, everyone has to obey the rules.  In his defense of Obama's deferred action policy, Ilya Somin points... (17 COMMENTS)
  • EconLog Guest Stint #2 Ends This Month: Requests?

    Art Carden
    21 Nov 2014 | 11:45 am
    (November 21, 2014 11:45 AM, by Art Carden) My second guest stint with EconLog ends this month. I have about a week left and will take requests: what would you like to read about?... (5 COMMENTS)
  • On the Complexity of the World

    Bryan Caplan
    21 Nov 2014 | 12:06 am
    (November 21, 2014 12:06 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Confession: I have been enamored of extreme policies for as long as I can remember.  When I was around ten years old, for example, I decided that all smokers should be summarily executed.  Adults' attempts to rebut my visionary proposals... (13 COMMENTS)
  • Two Cheers at Least for Some Politicians

    David Henderson
    20 Nov 2014 | 6:34 pm
    (November 20, 2014 06:34 PM, by David Henderson) I rarely disagree with Don Boudreaux about any economic, political, or moral issue and so in those rare cases where I do disagree, it's probably worth noting. Here's one. In a post in September, I talked about which U.S. presidents... (16 COMMENTS)
  • I Keep Returning to This Book...

    Art Carden
    20 Nov 2014 | 9:36 am
    (November 20, 2014 09:36 AM, by Art Carden) If you judge a book's quality by how frequently you come back to it or think about it, Daniel Klein's Knowledge and Coordination: A Liberal Interpretation is a very good book. I keep pulling it off the shelf for different... (5 COMMENTS)
 
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    Economist's View

  • Women in Economics

    Mark Thoma
    21 Nov 2014 | 1:46 pm
    Noah Smith: ... Why is it that the sciences look like a feminist nirvana compared with the economics profession, which seems to have a built-in bias that prevents women from advancing? ... More here.
  • 'People Who Wanted Market-Driven Health Care Now Have It'

    Mark Thoma
    21 Nov 2014 | 10:51 am
    Alice Rivlin: People Who Wanted Market-Driven Health Care Now Have it in the Affordable Care Act, by Alice M. Rivlin, Brookings: ... The United States ... relied primarily on employer-based health insurance, generously favored by tax laws. ... But there was a huge hole: Millions of people were left out of employer-based coverage and were not old enough or poor enough to qualify for the public programs. For 50 years, we have been arguing over how to fill that hole. ... In general, Republicans argued that relying on market forces would give people what they wanted while also putting pressure on…
  • Paul Krugman: Suffer Little Children

    Mark Thoma
    21 Nov 2014 | 12:24 am
    It's the decent thing to do: Suffer Little Children, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: The Tenement Museum, on the Lower East Side, is one of my favorite places in New York City. It’s a Civil War-vintage building that housed successive waves of immigrants, and a number of apartments have been restored to look exactly as they did in various eras, from the 1860s to the 1930s... When you tour the museum, you come away with a powerful sense of immigration as a human experience, which — despite plenty of bad times,... was overwhelmingly positive. I get especially choked up about the…
  • Links for 11-21-14

    Mark Thoma
    21 Nov 2014 | 12:06 am
    The Skeptics Guide to Institutions - Growth Economics Falling Wages at Factories Squeeze the Middle Class - NYTimes.com Macroprudential policy and distribution of risk - Antonio Fatas A glut-wrenching experience - The Economist GDP must not rule our lives - Diana Coyle Structural Deformity - Paul Krugman How to run a research departmen - longandvariable Why the St. Louis Fed Focuses on Academic Research - St. Louis Fed Today’s CPI release: If you just squint, you’ll see … - Jon Faust Why Tax Cuts Aren’t the Answer to Wage Problems - EPI Google’s New Market for Contributions -…
  • 'Encouraging Work: Tax Incentives or Social Support?'

    Mark Thoma
    20 Nov 2014 | 10:27 am
    Tim Taylor: Encouraging Work: Tax Incentives or Social Support?: Consider two approaches to encouraging those with low skills to be fully engaged in the workplace. The American approach focuses on keeping tax rates low and thus providing a greater financial incentive for people to take jobs. The Scandinavian approach focuses on providing a broad range of day care, education, and other services to support working families, but then imposes high tax rates to pay for it all. In the most recent issue of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, Henrik Jacobsen Kleven contrasts these two models in…
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    EconTalk

  • Smith Lessons: What I've learned from Adam and Vernon

    Russ Roberts
    21 Nov 2014 | 11:30 am
    This week's EconTalk episode with Vernon Smith helped me understand something that has been bothering me for a long time. Economics students are taught that human beings are maximizers--we want more rather than less of the things that give us pleasure. But we are constrained by our income. That means making choices. And that means facing tradeoffs. Deirdre McCloskey has called this vision of human behavior Max U. Humans are thought to maximize utility subject to the constraint of income. Adam Smith in The Theory of Moral Sentiments seems to take a different approach. He argues that material…
  • Continuing Conversation... Vernon Smith on Adam Smith and the Human Enterprise

    Amy Willis
    19 Nov 2014 | 7:09 am
    Nobel laureate Vernon Smith joins EconTalk host Russ Roberts this week on EconTalk to discuss Adam Smith's approach to economics and human behavior. And now we'd like to hear from you...Use the prompts below to share your reactions to this week's conversation in the comments. Or use them to start your own face-to-face conversations, and let us know how it goes. 1. What is the Max U approach to economics, and what does Vernon Smith mean when he says it works perfectly well, but only for "hamburgers and haircuts?" What kinds of goods does Max U struggle to deal with according to Vernon Smith?
  • Vernon Smith on Adam Smith and the Human Enterprise

    Russell Roberts
    17 Nov 2014 | 3:30 am
    Nobel Laureate Vernon L. Smith of Chapman University talks to EconTalk host Russ Roberts about how Adam Smith's book, The Theory of Moral Sentiments has enriched his understanding of human behavior. He contrasts Adam Smith's vision in Sentiments with the traditional neoclassical models of choice and applies Smith's insights to explain unexpected experimental results from the laboratory. Play Time: 1:08:02 How do I listen to a podcast? Download Size:31.2 MB Right-click or Option-click, and select "Save Link/Target As MP3. Readings and Links related to this podcast episode Related Readings HIDE…
  • Thinking About Health... An EconTalk Playlist

    Amy Willis
    12 Nov 2014 | 7:32 am
    We hope your thinking about the economics of the end of life were challenged in this week's episode with palliative care physician Becky Liddicoat Yamarik. We've taking a slightly different direction in this Extra...We're pleased to introduce our first EconTalk Playlist, along with some prompts for thinking about the economics of health and health care. If the Yamarik episode intrigued you, too, we hope you'll enjoy visiting (or revisiting!) these past health-related episodes. We hope you enjoy it, and as always, we love to hear from you. Share your thoughts in the comments, or start your own…
  • Becky Liddicoat Yamarik on Palliative Care and End-of-Life Medical Issues

    Russell Roberts
    10 Nov 2014 | 3:30 am
    Becky Liddicoat Yamarik, Hospice Palliative Care Physician, talks to EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the joys and challenges of providing care for terminally ill patients. The two discuss the services palliative care provides, how patients make choices about quality of life and when to stop receiving treatment, conflicts of interest between patients and families, and patients' preparedness to make these decisions. Play Time: 1:09:11 How do I listen to a podcast? Download Size:31.7 MB Right-click or Option-click, and select "Save Link/Target As MP3. Readings and Links related to this podcast…
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    Environmental Economics

  • Looks like I could have one less line on my resume soon

    Tim Haab
    20 Nov 2014 | 5:06 pm
    Congressional climate wars were dominated Tuesday by the U.S. Senate, which spent the day debating, and ultimately failing to pass, a bill approving the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline. While all that was happening, and largely unnoticed, the House was busy doing what it does best: attacking science.H.R. 1422, which passed 229-191, would shake up the EPA’s Scientific Advisory Board, placing restrictions on those pesky scientists and creating room for experts with overt financial ties to the industries affected by EPA regulations.The bill is being framed as a play for transparency:…
  • I took the bait

    John Whitehead
    19 Nov 2014 | 9:25 am
    From a reporter: What I'm interested in is: 1. Your reaction to the study. 2. Your assessment of local fisheries based on what you have seen working with the SAFMC and well as the sanctuary. My reply: 1a. That is an old study. Why is it drawing interest now? 1b. The statistical model that predicts collapse is very simple with a flow variable (collapsed fisheries that varies from year to year) regressed on a stock variable (cumulative number of years in the time series data). I created some data where the dependent variable (y in the paper) is a random number between 1 and 10 and the…
  • My EES linked accounts continue to grow!

    John Whitehead
    19 Nov 2014 | 8:18 am
    Suggesting that I'm awesome! You have received this email as confirmation that your Elsevier Editorial System (EES) account for [redacted] has been added to your consolidated user profile. Currently, the following EES accounts are linked to your consolidated profile: apen: Applied Energydib: Data in Briefecolec: Ecological Economicsecolet: Economics Lettersforpol: Forest Policy and Economicsjeem: Journal of Environmental Economics and ManagementJEMA: Journal of Environmental Managementjfe: Journal of Forest Economicsjoep: Journal of Economic Psychologyree: Resource and Energy Economics…
  • Cue the Jurassic Park Theme Music

    Tim Haab
    18 Nov 2014 | 5:06 am
    In the context of the ecological effects of reintroducing lost species into ecosystems, Last week I half-jokingly asked "..if reintroducing wolves is this great, what would happen if we reintroduced dinosaurs?"  Well... The fierce debate over whether to clone a woolly mammoth has been reignited by a fresh attempt to bring the species back from the dead. South Korean scientists believe the extinct 'Mammuthus' can be brought back to life using the DNA of an extremely well preserved mammoth found in the Siberian snow. Insung Hwang, a geneticist at Sooam, the South Korean…
  • AERE Happy Hour at the SEA meetings

    John Whitehead
    17 Nov 2014 | 9:24 am
    I just sent this message: AERE / SEA session participants, Let's have our informal AERE Happy Hour after the Distinguished Guest Lecture ("Life as a Lab: Using Field Experiments in Economics" John List [see note below]) on Saturday. This is a great chance to meet old friends and new and organize your dinner party!   What: AERE Happy Hour Why: Meet old friends and new and organize your dinner party Where: Hotel lobby bar (i.e.., Pulse -- "At 5:00 pm, an audible heartbeat will welcome the beginning of an eight-hour social hour as Pulse transforms into a vibrant lounge. As…
 
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    footnoted*

  • Is Actavis’ new CFO Really worth $22 Million?

    Murti Bhattiprolu
    14 Nov 2014 | 8:26 am
    When it comes to executive compensation, do the board members and compensation consultants who dole it out ever think there’s such a thing as too much of a good thing? That’s the question we found ourselves asking after reading the 8-K that Actavis plc filed late Wednesday. If you are a footnoted regular, you would know that we pay close attention to filings that come in after the close of the markets, especially on Fridays. So when Actavis, the Ireland-based pharmaceutical giant Actavis arrived a little after 5 p.m. on Wednesday, we sent out a quick note to our subscribers,…
  • What’s $8m to Google?

    Michelle Leder
    24 Oct 2014 | 6:10 am
    For most of us, $8 million is a lot of money. But for a company the size of Google, it’s probably safe to say that it’s the equivalent of sofa change. Still, even we were surprised by this exhibit attached to the 10-Q that Google filed yesterday. In the letter, which was dated July 18, 2014, Google agreed to forgive an $8m cash award that former Chief Business Officer Nikesh Arora was supposed to pay back within 30 days if he left the company prior to April 25, 2015. The condition was spelled out pretty clearly in this letter dated April 27, 2012. In that letter, the company said…
  • GT Technologies warned in August

    Michelle Leder
    10 Oct 2014 | 11:54 am
    There’s been a lot of hand-wringing over the past few days about GT Technologies, which as most people know, filed for bankruptcy earlier this week. In the press release, CEO Tom Guttierez said that “today’s filing does not mean we are going out of business; rather, it provides us with the opportunity to continue to execute our business plan on a stronger footing, maintain operations of our diversified business, and improve our balance sheet.” Investors didn’t quite see things that way. The stock declined over 90% on Monday and has spent the past few days…
  • Comment letter ahead of BofA’s $8M Fine

    Murti Bhattiprolu
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:00 am
    Yesterday, the SEC announced a $7.65m fine for Bank of America Corp. related to internal controls deficiencies and regulatory capital misstatements related to complex securities it bought as part of its acquisition of Merrill Lynch in 2009. What’s surprising is that a comment letter that was made public earlier this month previewed this. In that letter, the SEC said it was concerned with the company’s disclosure about revisions to regulatory capital amounts and ratios in its first-quarter report, which we flagged for footnotedPro subscribers on May 1. We thought it was…
  • An unusually special award at Sigma-Aldrich

    Michelle Leder
    26 Sep 2014 | 6:02 am
    Earlier this week, there was big news in big-pharma when the German pharmaceutical giant Merck KGaA announced plans to buy Sigma-Aldrich Corp. for $17 billion. The $140 a share price represented a 37% premium to Sigma-Aldrich’s closing price. Since that announcement on Monday, Sigma-Aldrich has filed 16 separate documents with the SEC, or somewhere north of 400 pages — from the transcript of the post-announcement call to the Powerpoint presentation to something called employee talking points, which was presumably designed by HR-types to reassure employees that they still have a…
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    Free exchange

  • The right call

    S.R. | SHANGHAI
    21 Nov 2014 | 9:35 am
    CHINA has cut interest rates for the first time in more than two years, a powerful signal that the government want to step up support for the slowing economy. As fate should have it, a rate cut was the very thing we had called for in our leader on Chinese monetary policy this week. But we cannot claim to be clairvoyant. We had not expected the central bank to move so quickly. Nor, for that matter, had most analysts or investors – hence the big gains for stocks, commodities and currencies sensitive to Chinese demand in the hours following the announcement.It is tempting to look at the rate…
  • It is really that bad

    C.W. | LONDON
    20 Nov 2014 | 7:12 am
    SINCE OUR print-edition piece last week, Ukraine’s economy seems to have stabilised a little. The currency fell by about 2% this week against the dollar, much better than what happened the week before (when there was a 14% drop). Ukraine's central bank issued an optimistic press release, suggesting that the currency was starting to appreciate. Despite this not-quite-so-bad news, there is little reason to be cheery. I don’t think people realise just how bad a mess the economy is in. Let’s start with a few basic facts. The average Ukrainian is probably 20% poorer than she was…
  • A glut-wrenching experience

    R.A. | LONDON
    20 Nov 2014 | 6:42 am
    IN THE mid-2000s the Federal Reserve found itself facing something of a problem. Beginning in 2004 the Fed has started raising the federal funds rate in response to strengthening economic conditions. Yet rising short-term rates did not lead to the expected increases in long-term rates. That was a problem, because the Fed very much wanted mortgage rates to go up in order to take some air out of an inflating housing bubble. This phenomenon, in which short and long rates become delinked, has been labeled "Greenspan's conundrum", and Matthew Boesler warns that it may soon return to afflict Janet…
  • About that debt

    R.A. | LONDON
    18 Nov 2014 | 2:20 pm
    IT HAS been a tumultuous couple of weeks for Japanese policy makers. First, the Bank of Japan dramatically scaled up its quantitative easing programme in response to weak growth and inflation figures. Then, new data revealed that the Japanese economy shrank at a 1.6% annual pace in the third quarter, when growth had been expected. That decline was the second quarterly contraction in a row, putting Japan in a technical recession. And today Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, called snap elections with an eye toward building a mandate to postpone an imminent rise in Japan's consumption tax. The…
  • Surprising results

    The Economist
    17 Nov 2014 | 11:02 am
    THIS week: A look back at the G20 summit in Brisbane, Japan enters a recession and retailer Amazon and publisher Hachette agree on a deal over the price of e-book
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    Greg Mankiw's Blog

  • Elmendorf for CBO Director

    Greg Mankiw
    15 Nov 2014 | 2:45 am
    Roll Call speculates about who the next director of the Congressional Budget Office might be. This is a key decision facing the newly elected GOP-controlled Congress. After giving a talk at CBO on Thursday and participating in its Academic Advisers Panel on Friday, I am reminded how impressive the CBO staff is and how important the institution is to the policy process. (FYI, my own affiliation with CBO dates back to the summer of 1978, when I was an intern there.)So who should the next CBO director be? There are a lot of…
  • Tax Fact of the Day

    Greg Mankiw
    12 Nov 2014 | 11:18 am
    Source. Click on graphic to enlarge.
  • A Textbook Example of Arbitrage

    Greg Mankiw
    12 Nov 2014 | 9:14 am
    From NPR.
  • The Coase Theorem in Action

    Greg Mankiw
    11 Nov 2014 | 2:40 am
  • Job vacancy rate is back to pre-crisis level

    Greg Mankiw
    31 Oct 2014 | 10:45 am
 
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    Hedge fund

  • Hedge fund black swan

    Veryan Allen
    14 Nov 2014 | 4:07 am
    Hedge fund blog, a long only manager and an index fund are flying to New Zealand. As the plane lands they see ONE purple sheep in a field.Professor Passive says "All kiwi sheep are purple! I must buy them all now. At any price the farmers ask, no matter how expensive or overvalued. No need to know the sheep's business or earnings. Forget about analysis or due diligence. Ignore risk! Prices are always correct as markets are efficient. It's not my money. I have academic tenure and a Nobel prize. Risk free...for me."Long only dude says "Some kiwi sheep are purple but the professor says they all…
  • Hedge fund test

    Veryan Allen
    11 Nov 2014 | 7:14 am
    Alpha is so rare that only the most dedicated and talented can find it. Top portfolio managers take a minimum 50,000 hours full time investing to BECOME skilled and work 100 hour weeks to maintain competence. Such people do NOT manage traditional funds dependent on a risky index. They score 10/10 on Hedge Fund Test. How will you do?1) Human resources: You wish to hire a performance rainmaker/new strategy developer. Your shortlist comprises the following candidates. You can only choose one. Who?i) MBA, CFA with many years experience at prominent bulge bracket white shoe firmsii) PhD in…
  • Active v passive

    Veryan Allen
    8 Nov 2014 | 3:58 pm
    Active v passive is better phrased as smart active v dumb active. Index funds are just unskilled low frequency trading strategies with horrific drawdowns and abysmal risk adjusted returns. Active is the ONLY option in the REAL world because "passive" funds track ACTIVE decisions of index construction firms. Should you risk your life savings on dumb lists of stocks or hard working talent that actually earns its fees? Name ANY business sector where passive works in the long term.Choosing WHICH index is an active decision requiring skill. Prudent men invest in skill. If you think the best stock…
  • Sports hedge fund

    Veryan Allen
    5 Nov 2014 | 3:39 am
    Skill doesn't exist? No such thing as talent and dedication? There are no above average people just lucky ones? Maybe Pelé, Jack Nicklaus, Michael Jordan, Wayne Gretzky, Babe Ruth and the greatest sportsman in world history Donald Bradman were just lucky flukes like hedge fund managers Jim Simons, George Soros, Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham and the best ever Munehisa Honma?Sports hedge fund? Unlike stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities, sports results don't depend on the economy. Sports bets offer reliable arbitrages and mispricings like "efficient" financial markets. Most people bet…
  • Best hedge fund

    Veryan Allen
    1 Nov 2014 | 11:08 am
    Went to the world's best ever hedge fund today. Performance needs mean I must do due diligence at all top SKILL BASED managers. I define "top" by risk adjusted returns not AUM or fame. Steep losses and high volatility are what market "averages" deliver every few years. TIME in drawdowns is NEVER recovered by investors.YOUR money is too important to be risked on an average. I prefer talent that delivers INDEPENDENTLY of market direction. Though rare, skill can be detected with thorough analysis. For asset classes, history is rarely forward looking. Bet on horses and lose years of gains in bear…
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    Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up

  • Now That's An Idea That Would Never Fly

    Jeff Matthews
    17 Nov 2014 | 2:08 pm
     Former BB&T* CEO John Allison has written a book about, well, about his time at BB&T, during which it grew from $275 million in assets to $152 billion (profitably) and some lessons learned along the way. American Banker, one of the publications Warren Buffett reads every day, is publishing excerpts from the book, covering everything from how BB&T got into the subprime auto lending business to how it looks for acquisitions (100 and counting during Allison's 35 years at the bank). And while Warren Buffett has long lambasted American CEOs for not providing…
  • Don't Blame IBM. Blame Wall Street

    Jeff Matthews
    20 Oct 2014 | 5:31 am
     Well the biggest stock-market levitation act since HP under Mark Hurd is going the way of all levitation acts: IBM is throwing in the towel on its $20 EPS "roadmap" (reportedly mocked as "roadkill" in some internal IBM quarters) and admitting what anybody with a calculator and the IBM 10Ks before them has understood for some time--it is exceedingly difficult to grow earnings regularly, not to mention with to-the-penny precision, when your sales are falling, hard, nearly everywhere, quarter after quarter...no matter how many people you lay off, how many "one-time" charges you take,…
  • Berkshire Hathaway: Wholesaler of Death?

    Jeff Matthews
    5 Sep 2014 | 1:41 pm
     Now that we have your attention with that admittedly provocative title, we are going to kill two birds with one stone here. Bird One is the fact that we haven’t posted anything in two months, mainly because whatever odd silliness visible in the darker corners of Wall Street seems irrelevant in a world where Vladimir Putin can invade his neighbors, take territory and shoot passenger planes from the sky while the civilized world sputters about such things not being fit for 21stCentury-type behavior before moving onto actual 21st Century-type behavior like Tweeting about…
  • Okay FINRA, Who Had The Call From The FHFA?

    Jeff Matthews
    11 Jul 2014 | 6:38 am
     Last night at 4:05 PM E.S.T. the news hit Bloomberg that the Federal Housing Financing Agency was proposing an astoundingly, stupidly strict set of standards for private mortgage insurers who do business with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the net effect of which would be to reduce the availability of credit for home buyers at the very time that credit is needed to keep our economic recovery going. We are not here to explain the issue, only to point out to FINRA, the self-policing body in charge of sniffing out strange behavior in the public markets, the enormous--nay,…
  • Life in Wartime, or, One More Reason Why Companies Leave America

    Jeff Matthews
    17 Jun 2014 | 11:47 am
     These are the headlines on my Bloomberg for Annie's, the organic mac and cheese maker whose shares have fallen from unsustainable heights as the difficulties of running a public company while trying to meet the impatient quarterly targets of impatient quarterly-minded investors finally overcame the euphoria of a company that seemed to be in the right place at the right time. And this is one more reason why companies are leaving America. For the record, I like the new CFO (who helped flag the filing deficiencies) and would not bet against the company mending its ways. Nor…
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    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

  • Reply From Pettis on Spain; Prisoner's Dilemma in Reverse; EMU End Game

    21 Nov 2014 | 12:33 pm
    In response to Spain Needs to Debate Leaving the Euro; Tooth Fairy Economics I received a nice email from Michael Pettis confirming my translation was correct. He also attached the original article in English.Michael Writes ...Thank's Mish. I am attaching the original, but the translations you got were basically right and covered the main points, which you understand anyway. Excessive debt impedes growth, and very few sovereign debt crises in history have been resolved by growthThe only other way to "resolve" a debt crisis is to assign the losses to one group or anotherIt is usually workers…
  • Output Gap Idiocy; Shaky Accounting EU and US Style

    20 Nov 2014 | 10:06 pm
    Shaky Accounting EU Style Inquiring minds note that Italy Accuses Brussels of ‘Shaky’ Accounting. That's certainly not a shocking accusation."Shaky" is exactly what one should expect when you get a bunch of nannycrats who believe Nirvana is on the horizon if wealth and taxes could be redistributed properly.The irony in this case is that Italy pleads for far shakier accounting than Brussels. Let's dive in for a closer look. Italy has accused the EU of using “shaky” methodology to evaluate countries’ fiscal policies, raising the stakes ahead of next week’s first verdict on the…
  • France Private Sector Output Drops 7th Consecutive Month, Orders Stagnate in Germany, Eurozone Flirts With Contraction

    20 Nov 2014 | 12:27 pm
    Let's take a look at weaker than expected reports from the Eurozone in aggregate, and France and Germany in particular.France The Markit Flash France PMI shows French private sector output fell for seventh successive month. Key points: Flash France Composite Output Index rises to 48.4 (48.2 in October), 2-month highFlash France Services Activity Index climbs to 48.8 (48.3 in October), 3-month highFlash France Manufacturing Output Index falls to 46.5 (48.0 in October ), 3-month lowFlash France Manufacturing PMI drops to 47.6 (48.5 in October ), 3-month lowSummary:While service providers…
  • Spanish Reader on Rise of "Podemos" a New Far-Left Political Party in Spain

    20 Nov 2014 | 10:22 am
    Following is an email from reader David, an unemployed accountant who lives in Spain. He writes about the alleged recovery in "main street", Catalan separatism, and the rise of a far-left political party named Podemos.David writes... Hi MishI'm a long time reader of your blog from Spain. I'm a 27 years old accountant, currently unemployed, and I enjoy reading your financial, economic and political insights because you are quite spot on regarding the issues you pay attention to, especially the Eurozone and its impact the global scenario. You sometimes refer to readers who communicate to you…
  • China Manufacturing PMI and Output Back in Contraction

    20 Nov 2014 | 12:11 am
    Chinese manufacturing has been wavering in and out of contraction since about mid-2011.PMI, Production, New OrdersFollowing a 5-month stint in positive territory, the HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI shows Output contracts for the first time in six months. Key points Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ at 50.0 in November (50.4 in October). Six-month low. Flash China Manufacturing Output Index at 49.5 in November (50.7 in October ). Seven-month low.Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSB C said:…
 
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    Overcoming Bias

  • Imagine Libertopia

    Robin Hanson
    21 Nov 2014 | 8:00 am
    In this post I’ll talk primarily to people who, like me, lean libertarian. The rest of you can take a break. Libertarians want to move more products and services from being provided directly by government, to being provided privately. And for those that are provided privately, libertarians want to weaken regulations. These changes would increase liberty. Libertarians tend to offer arguments that are relatively abstract and theory-based. That is, they focus more on why more liberty is more moral, or why it should in theory give better outcomes. They focus less on showing that liberty has…
  • Conservative vs. Liberal Jobs

    Robin Hanson
    18 Nov 2014 | 7:40 pm
    My last post got me thinking about the liberal vs. conservative slant of different jobs. Here are two sources of data. Consider some jobs that lean conservative: soldier, police, doctor, religious worker, insurance broker. These seem to be jobs where there are rare big bad things that can go wrong, and you want workers who can help keep them from happening. That explanation can also makes some sense of these other conservative jobs: grader & sorter, electrical contractor, car dealer, trucker, coal miner, construction worker, gas service station worker, non-professor scientist.
  • Relishing Inequality

    Robin Hanson
    17 Nov 2014 | 11:55 am
    As we’ve become richer, we have moved from farmer toward forager values. This has made us more egalitarian – we are more averse to inequality and domination, and more uncomfortable when people brag, give orders, or act overtly as if some people are much better than others. On the surface, our stories tend to affirm our social norms. Villains are often greedy disagreeable unstable illicit dominators, while the heroes who oppose them are often modest, agreeable, and capable, but not assertive or aggressive. However, not all is as it seems on the surface. For example, we are far more…
  • Help Me Imagine 2

    Robin Hanson
    16 Nov 2014 | 11:45 am
    Back in April I asked readers to help me imagine: [Your] community was … so successful … that one hundred exact copies of [it] were made then and spread around the world. They copied all the same people, work and play roles and relationships, even all the workspaces and homes. … Consider … your attitude toward the other copies of your group. On one hand, … you might want to have nothing to do with those other copies. … On the other hand, you might be eager to maximize your chances to share insights and learn from the other groups. (more) Today let me ask for help imagining a…
  • Why Erase Childhood?

    Robin Hanson
    12 Nov 2014 | 12:10 pm
    In our society, adults must live with their records. We collect records on sport, contests, web-forums, marriage, school, jobs, crimes, debt, taxes, etc. Such records help others who want to interact with those adults, by helping them guess the consequences of such choices. Such records also help those who have good-looking records. Of course, such records also hurt those with bad-looking records. Sometimes that hurt is unfair, as when a record looks bad due to a random event outside their control. But overall we judge it good to let people see records; we expect observers to usually take…
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • “If you’re not using a proper, informative prior, you’re leaving money on the table.”

    Andrew
    21 Nov 2014 | 6:40 am
    Well put, Rob Weiss. This is not to say that one must always use an informative prior; oftentimes it can make sense to throw away some information for reasons of convenience. But it’s good to remember that, if you do use a noninformative prior, that you’re doing less than you could. The post “If you’re not using a proper, informative prior, you’re leaving money on the table.” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • Soil Scientists Seeking Super Model

    Bob Carpenter
    20 Nov 2014 | 1:54 pm
    I (Bob) spent last weekend at Biosphere 2, collaborating with soil carbon biogeochemists on a “super model.” Model combination and expansion The biogeochemists (three sciences in one!) have developed hundreds of competing models and the goal of the workshop was to kick off some projects on putting some of them together intos wholes that are greater than the sum of their parts. We’ll be doing some mixture (and perhaps change point) modeling, which makes sense here because of different biogeochemical processes at work based on system evolution and extrinsic conditions (some of…
  • Retrospective clinical trials?

    Andrew
    20 Nov 2014 | 6:40 am
    Kelvin Leshabari writes: I am a young medical doctor in Africa who wondered if it is possible to have a retrospective designed randomised clinical trial and yet be sound valid in statistical sense. This is because to the best of my knowledge, the assumptions underlying RCT methodology include that data is obtained in a prospective manner! We are now about to design a new study in a clinical set up and during literature search we encountered few data published with such a design in mind. It has risen some confusion among the trialists whether we should include the findings and account for them…
  • Replication controversies

    Andrew
    19 Nov 2014 | 7:12 am
    I don’t know what ATR is but I’m glad somebody is on the job of prohibiting replication catastrophe: Seriously, though, I’m on a list regarding a reproducibility project, and someone forwarded along this blog by psychology researcher Simone Schnall, whose attitudes we discussed several months ago in the context of some controversies about attempted replications of some of her work in social psychology. I’ll return at the end to my remarks from July, but first I’d like to address Schnall’s recent blog, which I found unsettling. There are some technical…
  • 4-year-old post on Arnold Zellner is oddly topical

    Andrew
    19 Nov 2014 | 6:20 am
    I’m re-running this Arnold Zellner obituary because it is relevant to two recent blog discussions: 1. Differences between econometrics and statistics 2. Old-fashioned sexism (of the quaint, not the horrible, variety) The post 4-year-old post on Arnold Zellner is oddly topical appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
 
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    Streetsblog New York City

  • NYC: Precinct Where Drivers Killed Seniors in Crosswalks Ramps Up Bike Tickets

    Stephen Miller
    21 Nov 2014 | 2:01 pm
    Handing out traffic tickets that do nothing to improve safety? This will end well. Photo: Elie Z. Perler/Bowery Boogie If you’re an NYPD precinct commander interested in issuing lots of tickets to cyclists in a short period of time, the entrance to the Manhattan Bridge bike path is a tempting place to send your officers. While the intersection itself has fewer crashes than other parts of the neighborhood, the regular stream of cyclists funneling to and from the bridge path makes for easy pickings. The Manhattan Bridge bike path touches down at the intersection of Forsyth and Canal…
  • NYC: Friday Job Market

    Streetsblog
    21 Nov 2014 | 12:00 pm
    Looking to hire a smart, qualified person for a position in transportation planning, engineering, IT, or advocacy? Post a listing on the Streetsblog Jobs Board and reach our national audience of dedicated readers. Looking for a job? Here are the current listings: Launch Project Manager, Alta Bicycle Share, NYC We at Alta Bicycle Share, located in NYC, are seeking a Launch Project Manager. This role requires a high level of judgment, decision making, and time management. This is an exciting opportunity for a high performing individual to be part of the Launch Team in a growth environment.
  • NYC: More Arterial Carnage: Driver Seriously Injures Woman on Atlantic [Updated]

    Brad Aaron
    21 Nov 2014 | 9:58 am
    A driver hit a woman as she crossed the street at Atlantic Avenue and Washington Avenue today. Update: A witness to this crash contacted Streetsblog. His account has been added to the post. A motorist seriously injured a pedestrian on Atlantic Avenue at Washington Avenue in Brooklyn this morning. A witness, who didn’t want his name published, told Streetsblog he was crossing Atlantic with several other pedestrians when the crash occurred. “There’s a silver Audi, and he’s waiting. And as we’re in the middle of the street, he just turns, and he starts — he…
  • NYC: Reimagining Jay Street With Shared Space and Protected Bike Lanes

    Stephen Miller
    21 Nov 2014 | 8:36 am
    A two-way, center-running bikeway and a bus lane would be added to Jay Street south of Tillary Street under a concept suggested by Transportation Alternatives. Image: Street Plans Collaborative for Transportation Alternatives Jay Street is one of the major north-south spines of Downtown Brooklyn. The street is full of pedestrians near MetroTech, cyclists going to and from the Manhattan Bridge, and buses connecting to nearby subways, but it’s not designed to serve anyone particularly well — except, perhaps, people with parking placards. Double-parked cars constantly obstruct bike…
  • NYC: Today’s Headlines

    Brad Aaron
    21 Nov 2014 | 5:56 am
    Driver Kills Mohammad Naiem Uddin, 14, in Kensington; Charged With Leaving Scene (News) Shocker: Cuomo’s Raid of State Enviro Fund for TZB Financing Was Not Above Board (CapNY 1, 2; NYT) Uber Didn’t Want to Release Driver Data to TLC, Notches Win With Dispatch Rules (BuzzFeed, News) Safer Buses and Bus Drivers? Meh. But MTA Is Testing Doors for Subway Tracks (WNYC) New York DMV Exam Preps Drivers on Deer and Water Escapes, But Not Pedestrians (Reclaim) Judge Denies Bail for Sociopath Who Killed 4-Year-Old Ariel Russo (News, Post) Gowanus Development Proposal Calls for Higher…
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    The Big Picture

  • Where Band Members Stand

    Barry Ritholtz
    21 Nov 2014 | 4:00 pm
    From Flip Flop Flyin’: The colours and letters should be obvious, but just in case: S = singer, G = guitar, B = bass, D = drums, K = keyboards of various sorts, inc. computers or mixing equipments, T = turntables. If the singer regularly plays an instrument, they get a pink ring around the instrument. Multi-instrumentalists are shown with their main instrument. If you spot a mistake, feel free to email me. If you feel like writing me an email telling me that person X played the mandolin on three albums as well as the drums, please delete that email. On the whole, if there were different…
  • Succinct Summations of Weeks Events 11.21.14

    Barry Ritholtz
    21 Nov 2014 | 12:30 pm
    Succinct Summations week ending November 21st: Positives: 1. The Philly fed came in at 40.8, vs expectations of 20.7. This was the best reading since 1993! 2. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones both made new all-time highs, the third consecutive week both did so. 3. Headline CPI was flat m/o/m and is up 1.7% y/o/y. Core CPI rose 0.2% m/o/m and is up 1.8% y/o/y. 4. The BOJ called off next year’s tax hike after seeing lousy GDP numbers, stocks liked it. 5. Existing home sales came in at 5.26mm, better than expected and up from 5.18mm in September. 6. The purchase component of mortgage applications…
  • Why is the United States in a Constant State of Emergency?

    Barry Ritholtz
    21 Nov 2014 | 10:00 am
    click for full article Source: WonkBlog
  • Your Brain Can’t Handle Green on the Screen

    Barry Ritholtz
    21 Nov 2014 | 7:22 am
    We have said a good deal in this space about the futility of trying to time short-term market moves (see e.g., this, this and this). No one has demonstrated the ability to do this consistently over time. While it is possible to avoid the very largest of collapses over long periods of time using a simply trend-following approach (see Meb Faber’s “A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation“), the shorter the time horizon, the more difficult this becomes. Thus, forecasting near-term market moves is an exercise in futility. I bring this up because after a pullback of less…
  • 10 Friday AM Reads

    Barry Ritholtz
    21 Nov 2014 | 5:00 am
    Is it Friday already? Big green on the screen as yesterday’s intraday reversal from the gap down was the strongest since the October lows — then China cuts rates. And train reads: • What Is Russell Investments? Lured by the indexing business, the London Stock Exchange got a consultancy and asset manager in the bargain. (Chief Investment Officer) • Bonds: Anatomy of a market meltdown (FT) • Dog Ate the Alpha, Other Excuses for Why Your Fund Stinks (Bloomberg) • If Pimco Were A Country, It Would Be The Most Unequal Place On The Planet (Huffington Post) see also George…
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    The Epicurean Dealmaker

  • What Is It Like to Be a Banker?

    18 Nov 2014 | 6:35 pm
    Conscious experience is a widespread phenomenon.— Thomas Nagel, inveterate optimistWhilst conducting primary research into the ontological foundations of metaphysical epistemology recently, O Dearly Beloved, Your Dilatory and Shockingly Remiss Correspondent happened upon a previously unpublished draft of Thomas Nagel’s seminal paper, “What Is It Like to Be a Bat?” I found upon examination of the disintegrating foolscap moldering in dank archives that this eminent philosopher had initially attempted to frame his gedankenexperiment with an empathic exercise even more challenging than…
  • Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes?

    2 Nov 2014 | 3:55 pm
    Auguste Rodin, The Age of Bronze, 1876“If you meet a thief, you may suspect him, by virtueof your office, to be no true man; and, for suchkind of men, the less you meddle or make with them,why the more is for your honesty.”— William Shakespeare, Much Ado About NothingFrancine McKenna of re: The Auditors recently expressed her dismay that the Big Four accounting firms have continued to be noticeably remiss about engaging reputable accounting firms to audit their own in-house broker dealer arms. The litany Ms McKenna recites of well-known and less-than-well-known failures and deficiencies…
  • Courtly Love

    27 Oct 2014 | 8:37 pm
    Contrary to the cynicism that can pervade discussions of [mergers and acquisitions], many top level M & A advisors have a genuine concern about the integrity of large scale transactions and a desire for the fiduciaries involved to serve the interests they represent in a good faith and effective way. This is not to say that they do not seek to advance the interests of their clients in obtaining legitimate economic advantage, but they do want the game to be a fair one.— Leo E. Strine, Jr., Chief Justice, Delaware Supreme Court 1,2,31 While I appreciate Chief Justice Strine’s sentiment…
  • Sunday Reading from the Archives

    19 Oct 2014 | 10:20 am
    Edward Hopper, Early Sunday Morning, 1930“Then I need say no more,” said Celeborn. “But do not despise the lore that has come down from distant years; for oft it may chance that old wives keep in memory word of things that once were needful for the wise to know.”— J.R.R. Tolkein, The Fellowship of the RingPeriodically, O Dearly Beloved, I take a leisurely stroll through the carefully stacked and organized pixels of my back catalogue, clicking from link to link in a solipsistic journey of rediscovery. Occasionally such wanderings illuminate a consistent intellectual preoccupation of…
  • The Privy Counselor

    11 Oct 2014 | 1:19 pm
    Diego Velasquez, Portrait of Pedro de Barberana, 1631No! I am not Prince Hamlet, nor was meant to be; Am an attendant lord, one that will do To swell a progress, start a scene or two, Advise the prince; no doubt, an easy tool, Deferential, glad to be of use,Politic, cautious, and meticulous; Full of high sentence, but a bit obtuse; At times, indeed, almost ridiculous— Almost, at times, the Fool.— T.S. Eliot, “The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock”So The Blackstone Group decided yesterday to spin off its advisory business and merge it with Paul Taubman’s advisory “kiosk.” This is…
 
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    OUPblog

  • A brief history of the e-cigarette

    Catherine Fehre
    21 Nov 2014 | 4:30 am
    Electronic cigarettes are growing in popularity around the world. With the announcement of vape as our Word of the Year, we have put together a timeline of the history of e-cigarettes. 1963 Herbert A. Gilbert patents a non-tobacco cigarette that heats a nicotine solution and produced steam, but it is never manufactured. 1979 Dr. Norman Jacobson, one of the pioneers of the word “vaping,” develops the Favor cigarette, a way to inhale nicotine with no smoke. 2003 Chinese pharmacist Hon Lik first develops an electronic alternative to traditional cigarettes. 2004 The first e-cigarettes, a…
  • Ivan Pavlov in 22 surprising facts

    Abbey Lovell
    21 Nov 2014 | 2:30 am
    An iconic figure of 20th century science and culture, Ivan Pavlov is best known as a founding figure of behaviorism who trained dogs to salivate at the sound of a bell and offered a scientific approach to psychology that ignored the “subjective” world of the psyche itself. While researching Ivan Pavlov: A Russian Life in Science, I discovered that these and other elements of the common images of Pavlov are incorrect. The following 22 facts and observations are a small window onto the life of a man whose work, life and values were much more complex and interesting than the iconic figure…
  • Understanding placebo effects: how rituals affect the brain and the body

    Ella Sharp
    21 Nov 2014 | 1:30 am
    In a typical prehistoric scene, say in 4000 BC, a wounded warrior is dragged to the shaman tent. The respected shaman takes a look at the wound and assures the warrior that he will be healed with the proper prayers and ritual dances. He then prepares a strong-smelling mixture of herbs and seeds, and as the whole tribe chants rhythmically around the campfire, he carefully applies it to the wound, all the while uttering incomprehensible sentences passed on to him by a venerable line of ancestral shamans. Now let’s come to more recent times, say in 2010 AD. A wounded soldier is carried to the…
  • Should we let them play?

    ChloeF
    21 Nov 2014 | 12:30 am
    Ched Evans was convicted at Caernarfon Crown Court in April 2012 of raping a 19 year old woman, and sentenced to five years in prison. He was released from prison in October 2014. Shortly after his release Evans protested his innocence and suggested that his worst offence had been cheating on his fiancée. He also looked to restart his career as a professional soccer player in the third tier of the English league with his former club Sheffield United. What has ensued is a huge debate about whether the club should offer Evans a new contract. One side argues that Evans has served his time and…
  • Violence, and diverse forms of oppression

    Elizabeth Gorney
    20 Nov 2014 | 11:30 pm
    The theme of the American Society of Criminology meeting this November is “Criminology at the Intersections of Oppression.” The burden of violence and victimization remains markedly unequal. The prevalence rates, risk factors, and consequences of violence are not equally distributed across society. Rather, there are many groups that carry an unequal burden, including groups disadvantaged due to race, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, sexual identity, place of residence, and other factors. Even more problematically, there is an abundance of evidence that there are marked disparities…
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    Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

  • Reich Is Wrong Again

    Don Boudreaux
    21 Nov 2014 | 12:07 pm
    (Don Boudreaux) Here’s a letter to the Baltimore Sun: Misleading language, faulty economics, and failures to connect the dots saturate Robert Reich’s essay “The growing wealth and clout of the richest .01 percent” (Nov. 21). He misleads by writing that “the richest one-hundredth of one percent of Americans now hold more than 11 percent of the nation’s total wealth.”  In reality, though, there’s no such thing as the nation’s wealth.  Wealth is created by, and belongs to, individuals.  And overwhelmingly, the more wealth an individual creates - by producing,…
  • On Obama’s Immigration Executive Order

    Don Boudreaux
    21 Nov 2014 | 10:53 am
    (Don Boudreaux) Ilya Somin, a brilliant GMU colleague of mine from over in the law school, has a deep take on Obama’s much-talked-about executive order on immigration.  A slice: Finally, it is worth noting that the the immigration laws covered by the president’s executive order may go against the original meaning of the Constitution. Under the original understanding, Congress did not have a general power to restrict immigration (though it did have power over naturalization). That may not matter to adherents of “living constitution” theories of legal interpretation. It also…
  • Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    21 Nov 2014 | 4:23 am
    (Don Boudreaux) … is from page 88 of Russ’s splendid new book, How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life: Human creativity advances at such a breakneck pace, the device that made your heart sing just a few months ago now looks like an antique.
  • Some Links

    Don Boudreaux
    21 Nov 2014 | 3:53 am
    (Don Boudreaux) Cory Iacono outlines five economic myths that won’t die.  (HT Thomas Boudreaux) George Will details the audacity, tortured legal reasoning, power-mongering, and interest-group greed that are behind a move to kill school choice in Wisconsin.  Here’s Will’s closing paragraph: The good news is that Washington is bludgeoning Wisconsin with a legal theory too cynical to succeed. The bad news is that the bigger government becomes, the bolder it becomes in bullying people with legal complexities, confident that its nastiness will rarely be noticed because there is…
  • McCloskey Reviews Piketty

    Don Boudreaux
    21 Nov 2014 | 2:50 am
    (Don Boudreaux) After I’d earlier quoted from Deirdre McCloskey’s incisive review of Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century, several of you asked me how to get a copy of Deirdre’s review.  It’s now available.
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    Dollars & Sense Blog

  • That Film About Money

    Chris Sturr
    26 Oct 2014 | 10:04 am
    The film director James Schamus, who is a D&S subscriber and supporter, wrote us saying he “thought you’d like to see some work inspired by what you do”–two short films about money that are part of the New York Times‘s “We the Economy” series (I haven’t seen the other short films in the series, but I’m guessing the others are not as good as James’s!). Here they are:   Great to see D&S pals Rick Wolff, Barbara Garson, and Suresh Naidu interviewed here! Here is James’s director’s statement from the “We the…
  • Tuesday Links: London Whale, S.A.C. Capital, Jeff Madrick

    Chris Sturr
    21 Oct 2014 | 1:23 pm
    Apologies about the break from posts for the past week plus.  I just moved apartments, and that kept me from blogging. (Though around the same time I was moving we had some troubles with our sister blog, Triple Crisis, which also took up a lot of time. I have found some temporary fixes for our troubles, but if there are any WordPress developers out there who could give us some pro bono help with our two blogs (which both run on WordPress) and our website (which we intend to shift over to WordPress), please drop us a line.) Here are my latest links: (1) Jeff Madrick’s Seven Bad Ideas:…
  • Friday Links: Market Basket, War and Climate Change, etc.

    Chris Sturr
    3 Oct 2014 | 8:43 am
    (1) Alejandro Reuss on Market Basket:  I noticed that a Twitter account related to the low-wage worker organizing that is going on now, @LowPayIsNotOk, tweeted about a ridiculous article from Forbes arguing that the take-away from the return of Arthur T. Demoulas as CEO to the Market Basket supermarket chain is that good leaders know how to engage their employees’ volunteerism (Market Basket: The Power of Volunteerism And Employee Engagement).  That inspired me to post the piece on Market Basket by my co-editor, Alejandro Reuss, in our current issue (our Annual Labor Issue): The…
  • Annual Labor Issue

    Chris Sturr
    25 Sep 2014 | 3:23 pm
      We have finally sent our September/October 2014 Annual Labor Issue out to e-subscribers (print subscribers should get it within a week to ten days).  And I just posted our cover story to the website, The Future of Work, Leisure, and Consumption in an Age of Economic and Ecological Crisis, which is an interview with economist and Boston College sociology professor Juliet Schor. Here is the editors’ note from p. 2 of the issue: Unconventional Wisdom Here are some bits of “conventional wisdom” about labor relations and work in the United States today: It’s part of the…
  • Climate March Links: Industrial Policy!

    Chris Sturr
    19 Sep 2014 | 3:49 pm
    A few items in advance of this weekend’s Climate March in NYC: (1) Ron Baiman of the Chicago Political Economy Group sent us this: I’m sometimes asked: What is industrial policy? This article (“Sun and Wind Alter Global Landscape, Leaving Utilities Behind”) by Justin Gillis of the New York Times shows what industrial policy is. If Germany, a country with little sun, and little wind-swept land mass can do it, we all can! In fact as the article notes, German (and Chinese) industrial policies are bringing prices down and making these planetary saving technologies…
 
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    Japan Economy Watch

  • Abenomics 2.0 - Just What Are They Trying To Achieve?

    Edward Hugh
    16 Nov 2014 | 4:13 am
    The recent move by the Bank of Japan to take further measures to accelerate the rate at which it ramps up its balance sheet took almost everyone - market watchers included - completely by surprise. The consequence was reasonably predictable - the yen has once more fallen strongly against almost all major currencies - and most notably against the USD - and Japan's main stock indexes are sharply up
  • Is Japan Back In Recession?

    Edward Hugh
    8 Oct 2014 | 8:39 am
    “People should seriously consider that Japan’s economy may have fallen into recession despite the weaker yen and a stock rally from the BOJ’s easing and the flexible fiscal policy by Abe’s administration,” said Maiko Noguchi, senior economist at Daiwa Securities. “Initial expectations that the economy could withstand the negative effects of a sales tax hike through a virtuous circle seem to be
  • Does Abenomics Work? - The Doubts Grow

    Edward Hugh
    18 Sep 2014 | 12:35 pm
    Is something in the air? Do I detect a change in consensus on the way things are going in Japan? Certainly a slew of articles have been published in the financial press over the last month questioning where the Abenomics experiment is headed for. The general conclusion seems to be that wherever it is it is certainly not the originally designated endpoint. Thus the Economist. "It is crisis mode
  • Abenomics - What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

    Edward Hugh
    14 Aug 2014 | 8:05 am
    If this week's economics news is positive then that is good.  But if it's bad then that's even better, since there is more potential for it to improve next week, and if it doesn't, well that's doubly better since there will be  even more reason for central banks to step in and push up asset prices. Maybe all this sounds peculiar, even perverse, but it would seem to be how many people working in
  • Japan Inflation At A 32 Year High?

    Edward Hugh
    29 Jun 2014 | 12:23 pm
    Just in case anyone was in any doubt last weeks newspaper  headlines blared it out for us loud and clear - Japanese inflation is back, and has even hit levels last seen in 1982. (Click on image below for better viewing). In fact consumer prices in Japan rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in May according to the Bank of Japan's preferred measure, driven higher from one month to another by the
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    Credit Slips

  • Some Bibles Are More Exemptable Than Others

    Jason Kilborn
    21 Nov 2014 | 2:16 pm
    I wonder how many Bankruptcy professors have posed a hypothetical about the exemption of a rare Bible worth lots of money? Well, a federal District Court in Illinois had to answer the question for real. The Illinois person property exemption statute includes the debtor's Bible. A debtor in Southern Illinois asserted this exemption in a rare, first-edition Mormon Bible that she had acquired (for free) from her local library. Apparently, the library director had not been paying attention, as the 1830 Bible was appraised at at least $10,000. Amusingly, the debtor's lawyer described…
  • Rent Control in New York and Bankruptcy

    Stephen Lubben
    20 Nov 2014 | 5:54 pm
    Following up on my prior post, the New York Court of Appeals has ruled that a rent stabilized appartment is a public benefit, rather than an asset.
  • Detroit's Bankruptcy: The Conversation

    Melissa Jacoby
    20 Nov 2014 | 10:25 am
    Readers who have not otherwise received notice in the twittersphere may be interested in this commentary at The Conversation.
  • Are Some Banks Using Credit Reports to Help Collect Discharged Debts?

    Dalié Jiménez
    18 Nov 2014 | 10:19 am
    Last week, Adam pointed us to a NYT's story on "zombie debt" after bankruptcy. I did a bit more research into the story because I had a hard time understanding the problem from the article. There are a few lawsuits that have been filed about this (I found ones against GE Capital/Synchrony, Bank of America/FIA Card Svcs, Citigroup, and Chase). The GE complaint alleges that the banks have a systematic practice of "selling and attempting to collect discharged debts and ... failing to update and correct credit information to credit reporting agencies to show that such debts…
  • ICMA CACs, New York Edition - Vietnam! - and More Un-Boilerplate

    Anna Gelpern
    18 Nov 2014 | 9:13 am
    Mexico's public offering with New York-style ICMA CACs is a huge deal. But it turns out that Vietnam's exempt offering on November 6, also under New York law, was there first. Since it is not a public offering, the disclosure document is not public, and the one press article describing it is behind a paywall. Here are a few bits that struck me as interesting about the three adoptions so far. The Clause Formerly Known as Pari Passu: Like Kazakhstan and Mexico, Vietnam fixes the pari passu clause to exclude the ratable payment interpretation. Funnily enough, the three seem to do…
 
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    The Aleph Blog » The Aleph Blog

  • The No-Lose Line

    David Merkel
    19 Nov 2014 | 2:01 am
    How long can you hold a Treasury Note or Bond, and not suffer a loss in total return terms, if yields rise from where they are today?  Maybe the answer will surprise you, and maybe not — it depends on how fixed-income literate you are.Okay, here’s the scenario: I start off with the current yield curve for 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year Treasuries (0.51%, 1.61%, 2.32% and 3.04%).  I make the following assumptions:Annual Coupon Payment at the end of the year (at the current bond equivalent yield)The bonds are priced at par, so they are current coupon bonds.They are new bonds with the…
  • Is This Legit?

    David Merkel
    12 Nov 2014 | 1:55 am
    Photo Credit: .SilentMode || Doubts that the deal is legitimate?I’ve written a lot about financial fraud at Aleph Blog.  I try to encourage people to be skeptical, because it is genuinely rare when a deal is exceptionally good for an average person.  Most of the time in life, you are doing pretty well if you are getting a fair deal, particularly when it comes to financial matters.  Most people selling financial products know more about the product than the prospective buyer.Thus, Aleph Blog has written about a wide number of deals that are bad, and those that are outright…
  • Book Review: Bad Paper

    David Merkel
    11 Nov 2014 | 2:02 am
    This book has two significant types of insights: on people and on market failure.  It does well with both of them, but spends most of its time on the former, because it is more interesting.  That said, the second set is more important, and is buried in a few places in the second half of the book.With people, this book answers the following questions:Why does this book largely take place in Buffalo, NY? Because entrepreneurs got started there, and found it easy to acquire talent there.Why does the industry employ a lot of ex-convicts? There are some crossover benefits to having been through…
  • Revenue Misses Can Be Good

    David Merkel
    8 Nov 2014 | 8:21 pm
    Photo Credit: Phineas Jones || Beyond the destruction, honesty?Few like revenue misses, but let me point out a few significant things that investors should care about:If a company misses revenue estimates around 50% of the time, that can be an indicator that it doesn’t play around with revenue recognition, which is probably the most common way of shading accounting results.  Honest accounting is worth a lot in the long-run, even if the market won’t pay up for it in the short-run.If a company beats revenue estimates nearly all the time, do a little digging into revenue…
  • Problems in Simulating Investment Returns

    David Merkel
    6 Nov 2014 | 5:43 am
    Photo Credit: Hans and Carolyn || Do you have the right building blocks for your model?Simulating hypothetical future investment returns can be important for investors trying to make decisions regarding the riskiness of various investing strategies.  The trouble is that it is difficult to do right, and I rarely see it done right.  Here are some of the trouble spots:1) You need to get the correlations right across assets.  Equity returns need to move largely but not totally together, and the same for credit spreads and equity volatility.2) You need to model bonds from a yield standpoint and…
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    Quoting the Crisis

  • Maurice Greenberg puts U.S. handling of AIG bailout on trial By...

    9 Nov 2014 | 8:03 am
    Maurice Greenberg puts U.S. handling of AIG bailout on trial By Dean Starkman, latimes.com Maurice R. Greenberg, the ousted chief executive of American International Group Inc., was practically laughed out of New York for claiming that he and other shareholders were shortchanged by the U.S. government’s $182-billion bailout of AIG.No…
  • Why Monopolistic Pension Funds Undermine Capitalism

    6 Oct 2014 | 12:53 pm
    Why Monopolistic Pension Funds Undermine Capitalism: Roger Martin, hbr.org Peter Drucker was right, as he repeatedly was, when he foresaw in 1976 the emergence of pension funds as the most powerful wielder of capital in the modern economy. In his unique way he gave the story a neat twist by arguing that pension funds wou…
  • CEOs Get Paid Too Much, According to Pretty Much Everyone in the...

    23 Sep 2014 | 9:17 pm
    CEOs Get Paid Too Much, According to Pretty Much Everyone in the World Gretchen Gavett, hbr.org Rumblings of discontent about executive wages, the 1%, and wealth gaps know no borders. And neither does fierce debate about income inequality in general. But until now, it’s been relatively unclear how much people think CEOs should really make…
  • Microsoft’s $29.6 billion scam: Tech giant leads the way in...

    29 Aug 2014 | 11:07 am
    Microsoft’s $29.6 billion scam: Tech giant leads the way in tax-avoiding innovation David Sirota, salon.com More and more companies who enjoy huge benefits operating in the U.S. are trying to weasel their way out of taxesReading companies’ annual reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission is a reliable cure for insomnia. Every so often, though…
  • Beware the enormous bubble in bonds Chris Martenson,...

    29 Aug 2014 | 11:05 am
    Beware the enormous bubble in bonds Chris Martenson, marketwatch.com There’s an enormous bubble building in global bond markets, warns Chris Martenson.The only question now is: Who will take the losses?There’s a saying on Wall Street: Stocks are for show, but bonds are for dough.The flash, sizzle and focus…
 
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    24/7 Wall St.

  • The 52-Week Low Club for Friday

    Paul Ausick
    21 Nov 2014 | 1:05 pm
    November 21, 2014: Here are four stocks among the 46 equities making new 52-week lows today. MOL Global Inc. (NASDAQ: MOLG) dropped more than 51% today to post a new 52-week — and all-time...
  • The 4 DJIA Stocks That Boosted Markets Friday

    Paul Ausick
    21 Nov 2014 | 1:01 pm
    November 21, 2014: Markets opened sharply higher on Friday and managed to close on the positive side after gradually declining for most of the day. China’s central bank cut its deposit rate to 2.75%...
  • BMW i3 Electric Vehicle Named Green Car of the Year

    Paul Ausick
    21 Nov 2014 | 11:00 am
    At the Los Angeles Auto Show, the BMW all-electric i3 was named the Green Car of the Year by Green Car Journal.
  • Is GameStop Retreat an Opportunity to Buy the Dip?

    247chrislange
    21 Nov 2014 | 9:35 am
    The sell-off in GameStop could be an opportunity for investors to buy the dip, expecting that the company can turn it around in the holiday season.
  • Petrobras Stock Recovers 8% on Some Good News

    Paul Ausick
    21 Nov 2014 | 9:20 am
    Petrobras shares traded as much as 8% higher Friday morning, in the wake of news about possible finance minister candidates.
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    The Baseline Scenario

  • Obamacare, Taxes, United Airlines, and My Tea Infuser

    James Kwak
    17 Nov 2014 | 2:02 pm
    By James Kwak Over at Medium, I just posted a new article about the Jonathan Gruber-Obamacare “scandal.” Republicans are highlighting Gruber’s remarks as proof that the individual mandate really is a tax, and that the administration hid that fact in order to put one over on the public. But this whole argument flows from a faulty premise: that whether something is a tax or not is a question that has a knowable answer. Last week I wrote a post complaining about my dismal experiences on United Airlines, which I chalk up to two things. The first is miserable computer systems.
  • A Conference On Finance For Everyone Else

    Simon Johnson
    31 Oct 2014 | 9:22 am
    By Simon Johnson It is hard to move around in Washington these days without bumping into a conference on the future of finance. But most of these are either closed to the public, or run on behalf of large banks as part of their lobbying efforts. Next week, there will be a conference open to everyone at George Washington University to discuss where we really are on financial reform, and what still needs to be done. You should register in advance through the web page (link given above), but there is no cost to attend. Featured speakers include Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve…
  • No, You Can’t Get a Drink at 5 AM

    James Kwak
    16 Oct 2014 | 5:28 am
    By James Kwak I’m in the United Club at SFO waiting for a flight, and the bar is closed until 8. So much for business travel. I just published a post over at Medium that is really about two things: how both airline marketers and on-campus recruiters perpetuate the idea that air travel is glamorous, even when all of us know that it isn’t. It’s sort of a sequel to one of my favorite posts of those I’ve written, “Why Do Harvard Kids Head to Wall Street?” which I think is the one Paul Tough mentioned in his book about grit. Now that it’s recruiting…
  • Cultural Capture and the Financial Crisis

    James Kwak
    9 Oct 2014 | 6:27 am
    By James Kwak A few years ago, while still in law school, I was invited to write a chapter for a Tobin Project book on regulatory capture. It was a bit intimidating, being part of a project that included luminaries like David Moss, Dan Carpenter, Luigi Zingales, Richard Posner, Tino Cuellar, and the deans of two of the best law schools in the country. I was asked to write something about an idea that I had slipped into 13 Bankers, almost in passing, about the cultural prestige of the financial industry and the political and regulatory benefits the industry derived from that prestige. My…
  • Game of Thrones, The Wire, and the New York Fed

    James Kwak
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:07 am
    By James Kwak I wrote a column that went up this morning at The Atlantic about the ProPublica/This American Life story about the New York Fed. The gist of the argument is that we all knew the New York Fed was captured; for people like Tim Geithner, that’s a feature, not a bug. There was a paragraph in my original draft that I really liked, but I can completely understand why the editors didn’t want it: “When Tyrion Lannister wants his son killed, he sentences him to death in public. When Avon Barksdale wants potential incriminating witnesses killed, he obliquely lets his…
 
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    Trends... Find them, ride them and get off.

  • Nasdaq 10,000 by 2016

    Howard Lindzon
    19 Nov 2014 | 12:14 am
    I have had a fantastic week of work in London. All of it off the telco grid. I have survived on wifi, paper maps and friends. Last night I got to hang with my good friend Yoni Assia (world travelere based in Israel), founder of Etoro (an amazing and almost global brokerage which I am investor in) who was wildly bullish on Bitcoin in 2009 at 20 cents. He begged me to own some while I was visiting Israel. I did not. Last night he used my Robinhood account to buy 1 share of Apple on my Robinhood iPhone app with the flick of a finger. He shared it into my stream to embarrass me. This classic…
  • Peak America? Peak Internet Freedom? Peak Lindzon?

    Howard Lindzon
    16 Nov 2014 | 3:50 am
    As confident as I am in the social revolution and boom….I worry about all of the above in the title as I travel for a month talking to Stocktwits customers. Fun facts about global markets at this point in time: 1. The US markets are at all-time highs (software and biotech continue to lead) 2. Oil has dropped below $80/barrel for the first time in years. Restaurant, retail and consumer good stocks are rocketing. 3. Apple has a larger market capitalization than all of Russia’s stock market. 4. Alibaba and Baidu (I am long BIDU in the SL50) are the first two Chinese companies I call…
  • CNBC – Fire Mark Hoffman

    Howard Lindzon
    4 Nov 2014 | 6:23 am
    Yesterday, Jim Cramer ended up in my Twitter stream somehow ranting about how Twitter needs to fire Dick Costolo. The stock has struggled of late for sure and management changes are happening in droves. When CNBC does decide to talk about stocks and companies, it’s as an armchair quarterback, because the talking heads have not for the most part run their own businesses. Jim has some experience draining market value from The Street since 1999, so he would know about failed exec teams and boards. The Street has seen the stock peak at $47 in 1999 and settle in comfortably at $2 today.
  • My Predictions for 2015….Quantitative Socialism

    Howard Lindzon
    2 Nov 2014 | 7:33 pm
    Before I dive into the madness, sit back, take a deep breath and listen to Howard Stern interview Jim Carey for an hour. Instant classic. I grew up sneaking into Toronto comedy clubs watching Jim do impressions when he was 14. ok… As Japan picks up the baton on ‘Quantitative Easing’, the US scorecard that the fed and Obama will point to stands like this: So final score on QE: Stocks at all-time highs. Unemployment below 6%. Gold at 4-year lows. Inflation non-existent. — Joseph Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) October 31, 2014 But, everyone is mad. Mad at Capitalism,…
  • The Biotech Boom …Too Late to Buy?…and Why Everyone Should Allocate to Trend Followers…

    Howard Lindzon
    23 Oct 2014 | 8:28 am
    If being right and not making money is a sin…I am going to hell. A very hot part of it. Every year I underperform in the markets. Not the averages, just my abilities based on the opportunities. I buy too late, I sell to soon. I am at mostly at peace with it because of the opportunities. They just keep coming. Staying in the business has been the way I have operated since 1998 when I started my hedge fund and thought it would be my life work. Sixteen years later I still have most of my original limited partners. They know I have distractions and flaws and I could probably be better at…
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    Economic Principals

  • The Fourth Generation in Chicago

    dw
    16 Nov 2014 | 12:35 pm
    CHICAGO — A remarkable conjunction occurred here last spring, somewhere between a concatenation and coincidence. Gary Becker, of the University of Chicago, died unexpectedly, in May, at 83, from complications following ulcer surgery. In June, Glen Weyl, 29, anointed Becker’s successor as expositor of Chicago’s most distinctive tradition, published a prospectus for “A Short Summary of Price Theory.” That same month, the Department of Economics moved from hand-me-down quarters to a newly refurbished building of its own, complete with cloud-capped tower, nevertheless dwarfed by the…
  • A Few Good Things

    dw
    9 Nov 2014 | 4:26 pm
    Economists have written any number of popular introductions to their field – Armchair Economist, Undercover Economist, Naked Economist, Economic Naturalist’s Field Guide,  Freakonomics, From Here to Economy and Tradeoffs all come to mind – but seldom do economists write about their own experience of the craft. That’s why, as an economic journalist with some familiarity with the profession, I so liked The Apprentice Economist: Seven Steps to Mastery, by Filip Palda, of École Nationale d’Administration Publique, the public policy school of the University of Quebec. The voice is…
  • Meet Elmus Wicker

    dw
    2 Nov 2014 | 12:27 pm
    BLOOMINGTON, IND. – Some professors find a second wind when they stop teaching.  Norman Mclean wrote A River Runs Through It after he retired from the University of Chicago, in 1973. Fifteen years later, he published a sequel, Young Men and Fire.   Samuel Hynes, of Princeton University, with The Unsubstantial Air: American Fliers in the First World War, has a hit on his hands – at 90!  Charles P. Kindleberger published Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises after becoming emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1976 and then kept writing for…
  • Economic Principals is Traveling

    dw
    26 Oct 2014 | 2:30 pm
    EP is on the road, attending conferences, and will return next week. dw Share/Bookmark
  • Imperfect Competition, Legitimate at Last

    dw
    19 Oct 2014 | 1:00 pm
    The Nobel award  last week to Jean Tirole, of Toulouse School of Economics, capped a twentieth-century drama whose story has barely begun to be told. I can describe it here only in the broadest way; thanks to the Swedes, the details will now gradually emerge, as did those of similar developments in the past. But some idea about the episodes’ broader place in the scheme of things, as it pertains to you, can be had by viewing it in historical perspective. The story begins in the 1920s, in the years before John Maynard Keynes took center stage.  Edward Chamberlin (1899-1967) was a bright…
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    Marginal REVOLUTION

  • The Great Zynga Reset

    Tyler Cowen
    21 Nov 2014 | 11:03 am
    At companies where pampering employees has always been part of the culture, it is hard to stop if business turns sour. Zynga Inc. shares have fallen more than 80% since 2012 as the game maker struggles to find a follow-up hit to “Farmville.” Before going public in 2011, Zynga began serving lunch and dinner daily to its employees, using specialty ingredients like Japanese Kewpie mayonnaise and pinecone syrup. A spokeswoman for Zynga, based in San Francisco, says the company ended free haircuts for employees earlier this year. She declined to comment further. As perks get bigger and better,…
  • Assorted links

    Tyler Cowen
    21 Nov 2014 | 8:48 am
    1. What Larry Summers is thankful for.  And Larry Summers reviews Too Big To Jail, an important book in his view. 2. Trying to predict the Supreme Court. 3. More evidence for The Great Factor Price Equalization. 4. The importance of Great Medieval Thinkers. 5. The liquidity monster that awaits. 6. The Karl Marx credit card.
  • Deirdre McCloskey has a 55-page review essay on Piketty

    Tyler Cowen
    21 Nov 2014 | 12:09 am
    You will find it here (pdf), forthcoming in the Erasmus Journal of Philosophy and Economics. For the pointer I thank Ray Lopez, who in turn drew upon Patrick R. Sullivan, a commentator at The Money Illusion.
  • Human-dolphin fishing cooperatives

    Tyler Cowen
    20 Nov 2014 | 11:37 pm
    1. They have been reported to exist in Australia, India, Mauritania, Burma, and the Mediterranean, but the best known are in Brazil. 2. In parts of southern Brazil, human fisherman have been cooperating with dolphins for many generations (of each species). 3. If fishermen clap just the right way, dolphins will herd fish into the desired areas of fishermen, in muddy lagoon areas. 4. The dolphins perform a distinctive kind of dive to signal to the humans it is time to cast the net for the fish. 5. Only some individual dolphins are able (willing?) to do this well, perhaps the others belong to…
  • What I’ve been reading

    Tyler Cowen
    20 Nov 2014 | 10:55 pm
    1. Daniel Schreiber, Susan Sontag: A Biography.  I never tire reading about her, or reading her, for that matter. 2. Richard Bernstein, China 1945: Mao’s Revolution and America’s Fateful Choice.  A very good book on how the Americans had a decent relationship with the Chinese Communists in 1945 and how rapidly that fell apart and why. 3. Paul Vigna and Michael J. Casey, The Age of Cryptocurrency: How Bitcoin and Digital Money are Challenging the Global Economic Order.  A good and useful introduction to the beliefs of those who believe in the subtitle being true. 4. Michael Pye,…
 
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    Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

  • For the Weekend...

    J. Bradford DeLong
    21 Nov 2014 | 3:51 pm
    All the leaves are brown and the sky is gray. I've been for a walk on a winter's day. I'd be safe and warm if I was in L.A.; California dreamin' on such a winter's day. Stopped in to a church I passed along the way. Well I got down on my knees and I pretend to pray. You know the preacher's eyes were cold; He knows I'm gonna stay. California dreamin' on such a winter's day. All the leaves are brown and the sky is gray. I've been for a walk on a winter's day. If I didn't tell her I could leave today; California dreamin' on such a winter's day. California dreamin' on such a winter's day.
  • Liveblogging World War II: November 21, 1944: The Sinking of the Battleship Kongo

    J. Bradford DeLong
    21 Nov 2014 | 6:08 am
    Commander Eli Reich: [World War II Today: Off Taiwan): 0020: Radar contact at 44,000 yards, on our starboard quarter, (Ship contact #3) three pips, very clear and distinct. Came to normal approach, went ahead flank on four engines, and commenced tracking. Overcast sky, no soon, visibility about 1500 yards, calm sea. 0043: Two large pips and two smaller pips now outlined on radar screen at a range of 35,000 yards. These are the greatest ranges we have ever obtained on our radar. Pips so large, at so great a range, we first suspected land. It was possible to lobe switch on the larger targets at…
  • Noted for Your Lunchtime Procrastination for November 21, 2014

    J. Bradford DeLong
    20 Nov 2014 | 8:51 am
    Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog Night Thoughts on Martin Wolf's Shocking Shifts: Daily Focus Over at Grasping Reality: Whence the Right-Wing Confidence Back a Year Ago in ObamaCare's Failure? Hoisted from Comments: "Tom" on the Absence of Right-Wing Health Care Reform Policies Paul Krugman: The Unwisdom of Crowding Out David Altig: Monetary Policy Is an Exercise in Risk Management Robert Rubin: A First-Person History Lesson Paul Krugman: Structural Deformity Nick Bunker: How low can the U.S. unemployment rate go? Plus: Things to Read at Lunchtime on November 20, 2014 Must- and…
  • Over at Equitable Growth: Night Thoughts on Martin Wolf's Shocking Shifts: Daily Focus

    J. Bradford DeLong
    20 Nov 2014 | 5:19 am
    Over at Equitable Growth: Martin Wolf's column this week contains a very nice precis of the main argument of his recent The Shifts and the Shocks: Martin Wolf: The Curse of Weak Global Demand: "This feeble performance--even the 6 per cent rise in real demand in the US... ...over more than six years is pathetic by historical standards--occurred despite the most aggressive monetary policies in history.... Yet this has not been nearly enough.... How do we explain such weak demand?... Three sets.... The first... stresses the post-crisis overhang of private debt and the damage to confidence caused…
  • Liveblogging the Revoutionary War: November 20, 1776: The "Battle" of Fort Lee

    J. Bradford DeLong
    20 Nov 2014 | 3:10 am
    The Battle of Fort Lee: Gen. William Howe ordered Gen. Lord Charles Cornwallis to capture Fort Lee. The plan was to trap the American army between the Hackensack River and the Hudson River. With a force of 4,000-6,000 British soldiers, Cornwallis crossed the Hudson River in a rainstorm and landed about 6 miles north of the fort and marched south. Gen. George Washington sent word of the British advance to the Continental Congress and suggested that Philadelphia would likely become the next target. The news came as a shock to many of the delegates, who had failed to grasp how badly the war was…
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    99% Invisible

  • 141- Three Records from Sundown

    Roman Mars
    18 Nov 2014 | 10:59 pm
    This week on the show we’re presenting one of our favorite radio features, “Three Records from Sundown,” about singer Nick Drake. The documentary, by producer Charles Maynes, retraces the roots of Drake’s legend through interviews with Drake’s producer, Joe Boyd. Boyd signed Nick Drake to Island records when Drake was just 20 years old. The first album they recorded together was Five Leaves Left, released in 1968. Three Records from Sundown
  • 140- Vexillonaire

    Roman Mars
    11 Nov 2014 | 11:11 pm
    Vexillologists—those who study flags—tend to fall into one of two schools of thought. The first is one that focuses on history, category, and usage, and maintains that vexillologists should be scholars and historians of all flags, regardless of their designs. The other school of vexillology, however, maintains that not all flags are created equal, and that flags can and should be redesigned, and improved. Ted Kaye of the Portland Flag Association—the largest subnational flag organization in the country—is one such vexillologist. Kaye has a word for these activist vexillologists of his…
  • 139- Edge of Your Seat

    Roman Mars
    4 Nov 2014 | 2:18 pm
    “A Chair is a difficult object. A skyscraper is almost easier.” — Mies van der Rohe. The chair presents an interesting design challenge, because it is an object that disappears when in use. The person replaces the chair. So chairs need to look fantastic when empty, and remain invisible (and comfortable) while in use. Edge of Your Seat Donate to the Radiotopia Kickstarter
  • 138- O-U-I-J-A

    Roman Mars
    28 Oct 2014 | 11:37 am
    The Ouija board is so simple and iconic that it looks like it comes from another time, or maybe another realm. The game is not as ancient as it was designed to look, but those two arched rows of letters have been spooking people for over 125 years. Actually, the roots of the board go back even farther, according to Ouija historian Robert Murch. To understand where Ouija boards (generically called “talking boards”) come from, you have to go back to middle of the 1800s, to three sisters in New York… This story was adapted from a piece by Linda Rodriguez McRobbie which originally…
  • 137- Good Bread

    Roman Mars
    22 Oct 2014 | 12:30 am
    The first print advertisement for Wonder Bread came out before the bread itself. It stated only that “a wonder” was coming. In a lot of ways, the statement was true. Wonder Bread was the perfect loaf.  “Slow food” advocates have pronounced industrial white bread of any brand a symbol of a modern grocery problem:  we consumers don’t know where our food comes from. The funny thing is that industrial white bread—that evenly sliced, squishy, moist, perfectly white and wondrous loaf—was once a highly designed solution to that very same problem. ***SUPPORT THE 2014 RADIOTOPIA…
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    Eat the Bankers.com

  • Fans of Gridlock

    Sinclair Noe
    21 Nov 2014 | 2:42 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 91 = 17,810 SPX + 10 = 2063 NAS + 11 = 4712 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.32% OIL + .77 = 76.62 GOLD + 5.80 = 1201.30 SILV + .15 = 16.50 Record highs for the Dow and the S&P. China has cut interest rates for the first time in more than 2 years. The first thought is that China is trying to stimulate growth for a slowing economy. However, in making the announcement, the People’s Bank of China tried to emphasize that the economy is growing within a reasonable range, and the rate cut was not about spurring growth. Instead, they emphasized the need to…
  • Nomi Prins

    Sinclair Noe
    21 Nov 2014 | 2:38 pm
    Listen to Sinclair Noe interview Nomi Prins For more information on the book or to buy the book, click the banner: All the Presidents’ Bankers: The Hidden Alliances that Drive American Power by Nomi Prins All the Presidents’ Bankers is a groundbreaking narrative of how an elite group of men transformed the American economy and government, dictated foreign and domestic policy, and shaped world history. Culled from original presidential archival documents, All the Presidents’ Bankers delivers an explosive account of the hundred-year interdependence between the White House and Wall…
  • L Randall Wray

    Sinclair Noe
    21 Nov 2014 | 2:33 pm
    Listen to the interview with the author, For more information or to buy the book, click the banner link below. Modern Money Theory: A Primer on Macroeconomics for Sovereign Monetary Systems by L. Randall Wray In a challenge to conventional views on modern monetary and fiscal policy, this book presents a coherent analysis of how money is created, how it functions in global exchange rate regimes, and how the mystification of the nature of money has constrained governments, and prevented states from acting in the public interest. Also, by this author: The post L Randall Wray appeared first on…
  • Skim Just a Little

    Sinclair Noe
    20 Nov 2014 | 2:58 pm
    Financial Review DOW + 33 = 17,719 SPX + 4 = 2052 NAS + 26 = 4701 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.33% OIL + 1.50 = 76.00 GOLD + 11.40 = 1195.50 SILV+ .12 = 16.35 Record high close for the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 index. The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, measures inflation at the retail level; prices that you and I pay for stuff. Prices were unchanged in October at an annualized rate of 1.7%. Lower gasoline prices offset increases in housing (up 0.3%), medical care (up 0.2%) and airline fares (which increased 2.4% despite lower fuel costs). The price of gasoline fell 3% last month. The…
  • What? Me Worry?

    Sinclair Noe
    19 Nov 2014 | 3:15 pm
    Financial Review DOW – 2 = 17,685 SPX – 3 = 2048 NAS – 26 = 4675 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.35% OIL – .51 = 74.61 GOLD – 14.40 = 1184.10 SILV – .06 = 16.23 The Federal Reserve’s most recent FOMC meeting was October 28th and 29th; after the meeting they issued a statement saying that QE3 was finished; they painted a fairly positive picture off the economy to confirm their decision. Fed Chair Janet Yellen and her central bank colleagues last month focused on improvements in the labor market when they announced an end to their stimulative bond purchases. They also said that the…
 
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    iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

  • Growth: An Essential Part of a Cure for Unemployment

    iMFdirect
    19 Nov 2014 | 7:17 am
    By Davide Furceri and Prakash Loungani (version in Español, Français, 中文, Русский,  عربي,  日本語) Unemployment is a global problem. If the unemployed formed their own country, it would be the fifth largest in the world. Of the nearly 200 million people around the world looking for work, half are in emerging markets and about a quarter in advanced economies, reflecting the growing weight of emerging markets in the global labor force (Figure 1). What can be done to lower unemployment? For advanced economies, economists have long advocated a simple cure: more growth.
  • Building a Camaraderie of Central Bankers: How Monetary Policymakers in the Caucasus and Central Asia Can Learn From Each Other

    iMFdirect
    17 Nov 2014 | 7:40 am
    By Min Zhu (Versions in 中文, Русский) The world’s central bankers are certainly in the news these days. Not a week goes by without the Fed, the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan taking big and often unprecedented actions to fight deflation, preserve financial stability, or address mediocre growth. We tend to forget, however, that these are not the only central banks that are struggling to adapt their policies to changing circumstances in our connected world. Take the Caucasus and Central Asia — Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan,…
  • Understanding Spillovers

    iMFdirect
    12 Nov 2014 | 7:00 am
    By Olivier Blanchard, Luc Laeven and Esteban Vesperoni The global crisis—which challenged paradigms about the functioning of financial markets and had significant consequences in other markets—and the sluggish recovery since 2009, are a reminder of the importance of understanding interconnections and risks in the global economy. The increasing trend in global trade, and even more significant, in cross-border financial activities, suggests that spillovers can take many different forms. The understanding of transmission channels of spillovers has become essential, not only from an academic…
  • Mind the Dragon: Latin America’s Exposure to China

    iMFdirect
    11 Nov 2014 | 8:52 am
    By Bertrand Gruss and Fabiano Rodrigues Bastos  (version in Español and Português) China is still a distant and exotic country in the mind of many people in Latin America. Yet, with the Asian giant rapidly expanding its ties with the region (the share of exports going to China is now ten times larger than in 2000), their economic fates seem to be increasingly connected. And in fact, a sharper slowdown in China now represents one of the key risks Latin Americans should be worried about—and prepare for. So, what is at stake? How much do shocks to China matter for economies in Latin…
  • Portfolio Investment in Emerging Markets: More Than Just Ebb and Flow

    iMFdirect
    7 Nov 2014 | 2:11 pm
    By Evan Papageorgiou When the U.S. Federal Reserve first mentioned in 2013 the prospect of a cutback in its bond buying program, markets had a “taper tantrum.” Many emerging markets saw large increases in volatility, even though outflows from their domestic markets were small and short-lived. Now the Fed has ended its bond buying and is looking ahead to rate hikes, and portfolio flows continue to arrive at the shores of emerging market economies. So everything’s fine, right? Not quite. In our latest Global Financial Stability Reportwe show that the large concentration of advanced…
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    WordPress.com News

  • Explore Longform with Writing 201

    Michelle W.
    21 Nov 2014 | 7:00 am
    We often think of blog posts as being just a few paragraphs long, or being a “less serious” kind of writing. Not so! In this challenge, we’ll focus on writing longform pieces that are equally at home on your blog or in a magazine. Whether you have trouble organizing your thoughts in longer pieces of writing or simply want to challenge yourself as a blogger, Writing 201: Beyond the Blog Post can help. What is Writing 201: Beyond the Blog Post? Writing 201: Beyond the Blog Post is a four-week course to help those beginning to explore longform writing (or who are frustrated…
  • Just Released: New Blogging U. Ebooks

    Ben Huberman
    10 Nov 2014 | 8:00 am
    Our recent Writing 101 and Writing 201 Blogging U. courses were a huge success — so we thought you should be able to enjoy them even if your schedule didn’t allow you to take them in real time. We’re happy to announce that both courses are now offered as free ebooks, available for download in .pdf, .mobi (Kindle), and .epub (iBooks) formats. While conceived with nonfiction writers in mind, fiction writers (we know you’re out there, NaNoWriMo participants!) could find both courses just as useful. Which ebook should you choose? Writing 101: Build a Blogging Habit…
  • Emoji Everywhere 🎃

    Marcus Kazmierczak
    6 Nov 2014 | 3:05 pm
    Emoji? What are they? “Emoji” is a Japanese term meaning “picture character.” It’s a standard for showing smileys and other little symbols inside text. But unlike traditional smileys that are made up of a sequence of letters like , every emoji has its own letter. Emoji blossomed on smartphones, where quickly picking out an emoji is often faster than typing out a long sentence. Today we’re rolling out hundreds and hundreds of emoji across WordPress.com — 872 to be exact. Do they look familiar? That’s because Twitter has graciously decided to open-source their entire set,…
  • New Themes: Editor and Sequential

    David A. Kennedy
    6 Nov 2014 | 7:16 am
    Today, we have two new free themes ready for you! Editor Meet Editor, a new addition to our theme collection designed by Mike McAlister at Array. Geared toward personal bloggers and photo bloggers, Editor features big typography and images and a tab-based sidebar with a spot for featured posts, a site logo, and a social links menu. Editor makes it easy to put a personal stamp on your site or blog. Learn more about the free Editor theme at the Theme Showcase, or preview it by going to Appearance → Themes. Sequential Crafted by Thomas Guillot, Sequential is a contemporary, clean, and…
  • Longreads’ Best of WordPress, Vol. 8

    Mike Dang
    5 Nov 2014 | 8:51 am
    We’re back with a new collection of our favorite stories from across all of WordPress. 1. Books for the Broken-Hearted Hannah Richell Hannah Richell’s husband Matt was killed in a surfing accident in July. In a recent post, Richell writes about finding comfort in reading words written by people who have also experienced the shock of losing a loved one — people like Joan Didion, C.S. Lewis, and Cheryl Strayed. 2. The Shame of Poor Teeth in a Rich World Sarah Smarsh, Aeon An essay about growing up poor in America, and the role of teeth as a class signifier. 3. Giving Up the Ghost…
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    EconomicPolicyJournal.com

  • Price Inflation Since 2008 (Explain this Paul "I am concerned about deflation" Krugman)

    21 Nov 2014 | 4:28 pm
  • Thanksgiving Travel Forecast at 7-Year High

    21 Nov 2014 | 3:45 pm
    With gasoline prices at a five-year low, AAA Travel predicts that 46.3 million Americans will travel more than 50 miles to celebrate the holiday, the highest number of travelers since 2007 and a 4.2% increase from a year ago. Most of those travelers (41.3 million) will be driving. AAA expects 3.55 million Americans to fly to a holiday destination this year, the largest number since 2007.
  • LEAKED: Internal Uber Deck Reveals Staggering Revenue And Growth Metrics Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-revenue-rides-drivers-and-fares-2014-11?op=1#ixzz3JkMu0STy

    21 Nov 2014 | 3:24 pm
    Uber is a four-year-old mobile ride service company that could soon generate $10 billion of revenue per year, according to a source familiar with the numbers, reports Business Insider. BI obtained an internal Uber presentation that's nearly 60 pages long last week that was produced in early 2014. In it, there's city-by-city data in terms of revenue, active drivers, average fares, active users,
  • Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner Climbs

    21 Nov 2014 | 2:04 pm
     The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 29th annual informal price survey of classic items found on the Thanksgiving Day dinner table indicates the average cost of this year’s feast for 10 is $49.41, a 37-cent increase from last year’s average of $49.04. The AFBF survey shopping list includes turkey, bread stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls with butter, peas, cranberries, a relish tray of carrots
  • St Louis Fed Puts Out Video Attack On Gold Standard

    21 Nov 2014 | 12:25 pm
    David Andolfatto, a vice president and economist with the St. Louis Fed, has put out a series of videos on the gold standard. In the clip below, he attacks the gold standard as a means of exchange and argues that fiat paper money is a better system. In this brief two minute and 16 second video, the series of distortions is quite remarkable. First the statement is made that under the Federal
 
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    Carl Futia

  • Guesstimates on November 21, 2014

    21 Nov 2014 | 6:07 am
    December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2060-2072. The next reaction will probably be 45-50 points.  Even so the market is headed for my 2090 target and probably higher than that.QQQ: Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00 TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 118-120. Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 120.January Crude:   I think the…
  • Guesstimates on November 20, 2014

    20 Nov 2014 | 6:04 am
    December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2036-2048. The next reaction will probably be 45-50 points.  I had thought that this would start from about 2050 and the market reached that level Tuesday. But so far there is no sign of concentrated selling and until such selling begins I think the ES will move higher. In any case the market is headed for my 2090 target and probably higher than that.QQQ: Upside target at 102 has been reached. Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00 TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00%…
  • Attention Traders

    19 Nov 2014 | 9:50 am
    As you know I have started to post the S&P E-mini trades I make in my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime  on this blog's Twitter feed (at the top of the right hand column). You can follow me here on Twitter for free but keep in mind that the trade postings are delayed 5-10 minutes. Since I started posting these trades in October 2013 they have generated  a 43% return trading a single contract per $10,000 of account equity (a very conservative approach since day trade margin on a single contract is only about $2,700). Since the start of the seminar 42 months ago the trades made in…
  • yen and euro

    19 Nov 2014 | 9:48 am
    Here are monthly bar charts of the Japanese yen (top) and the Euro (bottom).Japan and the euro-zone are the two arenas where central banks (the BOJ and the ECB) are battling declining nominal gross domestic product by pursuing policies of quantitative easing. These policies, if implemented with determination and persistence, will increase growth rates of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) by raising asset prices, depreciating the domestic currency, and encouraging investment. The increase in asset prices will be world-wide and not simply domestic since these are two of the world's biggest…
  • Guesstimates on November 19, 2014

    19 Nov 2014 | 6:00 am
    December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2043-2054. The next reaction will probably be 45-50 points.  I had thought that this would start from about 2050 and the market reached that level yesterday. But so far there is no sign of concentrated selling and until such selling begins I think the ES will move higher. In any case the market is headed for my 2090 target and probably higher than that.QQQ: Upside target at 102 has been reached. Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00 TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00%…
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    True Economics

  • 21/11/2014: The Latest Troika Report: Risks, No Buffers, Lots of Hope

    21 Nov 2014 | 11:47 am
    The Troika did it bit… flew into Dublin on the 17th and flew out of here today. And left this as a present for all of us to enjoy…Summary of their statement with my comments (outside quotes)."Ireland has enjoyed a year beyond all reasonable expectations following the completion of its EU‑IMF supported program. Growth has accelerated to be highest in the euro area, job creation has continued, bond yields are at historic lows, and the fiscal deficit will again be below target. Ireland’s resolute implementation of steady and measured fiscal adjustment has been critical to this…
  • 21/11/2014: Irish Property Markets: Not in Rude Health, Yet...

    21 Nov 2014 | 6:55 am
    Four slides from my ICA presentation today, covering construction sector and property market in Ireland:
  • 20/11/2014: Oil Prices: Supply and Demand Drivers

    20 Nov 2014 | 3:08 am
    An interesting BofE note on links between commodities prices & UK inflation: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/inflationreport/2014/ir14nov4.pdfA key chart - from global perspective - is this one:Main points are:2014 demand growth is way down, driven primarily by contracting demand in the OECD economies (advanced economies rot) and to a lesser extent relatively flat (compared to 2000-2007) growth in non-OECD economies.Supply from non-OPEC sources is way up, while OPEC is cutting back. Net effect - growth in supply is way above 2000-2007 average.This suggests that OPEC…
  • 19/11/2014: Two articles on Russian economy and reforms

    19 Nov 2014 | 5:04 am
    Two important articles on Russian economy and policy via Bloomberg:Putin Said to Stun Advisers by Backing Corruption Crackdown: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-18/putin-said-to-back-crackdown-on-corruption-as-sanctions-bite.html andRussia Braces for 'Catastrophic' Drop in Oil Prices: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-14/putin-says-russia-preparing-for-catastrophic-oil-slump.html
  • 19/11/2014: Irish Patents Filings: Q3 2014

    19 Nov 2014 | 4:59 am
    As a taster for my Friday presentation at the ICA, here's a slide from my deck on Ireland and our challenges and opportunities forward:Note: data plotted is via @newmorningip .And here is monthly data:One major point to be made on the above data: Irish patent filings are still falling below 50% of all filings, while Irish acedemic filings are still running at around 8% of the total. The gap between foreign and domestic filings has fallen to 73:100 in Q3 2014 from 82:100 in Q2 2014.
 
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    Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

  • New Residential Construction Report: October 2014

    19 Nov 2014 | 8:33 am
    Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed mixed results with total permit activity improving while total start activity declined since September.Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased 1.4% from September to 640K single family units (SAAR), and increased 2.4% above the level seen in October 2013 but still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005.
  • Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – November 19 2014

    19 Nov 2014 | 8:25 am
    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications. The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases. The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate…
  • Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls and Civilian Unemployment October 2014

    7 Nov 2014 | 6:58 am
    Today's Employment Situation Report indicated that in October, net non-farm payrolls increased by 214,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 209,000 jobs while the civilian unemployment rate declined declined to 5.8% over the same period.Net private sector jobs increased 0.18% since last month climbing 2.24% above the level seen a year ago and climbing 1.82% above the peak level of employment seen in December 2007 prior to the Great Recession.
  • Employment Situation: Total Unemployment October 2014

    7 Nov 2014 | 6:55 am
    Today's Employment Situation report showed that in October “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers declined to 11.5% while the traditionally reported unemployment rate also improved falling to 5.8%.The traditional unemployment rate is calculated from the monthly household survey results using a fairly explicit definition of “unemployed” (essentially unemployed and currently looking for full time employment) leaving many workers to be considered effectively “on the margin” either employed in part time work when full time is preferred or simply…
  • Employment Situation: Unemployment Duration October 2014

    7 Nov 2014 | 6:52 am
    Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed were mixed in October while still remaining distressed by historic standards.Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more declined to 2.916 million or 32.0% of all unemployed workers while the median term of unemployment increased to 13.7 weeks and the average stay on unemployment increased to 32.7 weeks.
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    The Economic Populist

  • Democrats Running on Empty and Living on a Prayer

    Bud Meyers
    19 Nov 2014 | 5:27 pm
    In the 2014 elections, the Democrats' only "Hail Mary" hope in Hell had been, not just keeping the Senate, but winning back the House as well. Now (maybe for an entire generation) the Democrats have lost almost any chance at all of getting back any meaningful political power in Washington for a very long time to come — because their messaging during the 2014 elections was such an utter and dismal failure. Share
  • Retail Sales Rose 0.3% in October, Reversing September’s Decline

    rjs
    18 Nov 2014 | 12:15 pm
    The Advance Retail Sales Report for October (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated that our total seasonally adjusted retail and food services sales were at $444.5 billion in October, which was an increase of 0.3% (±0.5%)* from the revised September sales of $443.0 billion, and 4.1% (±0.9%) above sales in October of last year..  Recall that the asterisk on October’s sales indicates that from their small sampling of retail outlets, Censu Share
  • Industrial Production October Ho-Hum, Capacity Utilization Still Stunted

    Robert Oak
    17 Nov 2014 | 6:28 pm
    The Federal Reserve Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization report shows a -1.0% decline in industrial production for October and September was revised down to 0.8% growth.  Manufacturing alone grew by 0.2%, but utilities dropped by -0.7% after last month's large gain.  Mining also decreased by almost a percentage point, -0.9%.  The G.17 industrial production statistical release is also known as output for factories and mines. Share
  • Stayin' Alive: Hospice flourishes, serving the profiteers by "caring for" those who die at a leisurely pace

    sylvia kronstadt
    16 Nov 2014 | 3:16 am
    Please, for god's sake, don't die! Hospice needs all the clients it can get! The stockholders set some almost impossible 'benchmarks' at the last meeting! "   Share
  • American Workers Put Last in Obama's Amnesty

    Robert Oak
    16 Nov 2014 | 1:44 am
    The word is Obama at all costs is going to grant work permits along with amnesty to millions here illegally in the United States.  This is when the jobs market still has not recovered.  The latest leak shows Obama plans on giving amnesty and work permits to another 4.5 million illegals and U.S. permanent resident status to over half a million imported workers currently on guest worker Visas. Share
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    Stock Trading To Go

  • STTG Market Recap November 20, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    20 Nov 2014 | 5:04 pm
    Thursday's inter-day action was more typical of a bull market than some we've seen this week as we had a down open met immediately with dip buyers. Indexes finishes near the highs of the day with the S&P 500 up 0.20% and the NASDAQ 0.56%. The S&P 500 closed at a record for the 44th time this year. All economic data Thursday was to the positive:The Philly Fed Index posted 40.8... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap November 19, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    19 Nov 2014 | 4:05 pm
    Indexes opened lower Wednesday and unlike most recent sessions the dip buyers did not come on as strong. The S&P 500 fell 0.15% and the NASDAQ 0.57%. The focus of the day was a release of the Federal Reserve minutes from the last meeting and most of the talk was of not enough inflation for the Fed's liking. Original post: STTG Market Recap November 19, 2014 Read the full article at... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap November 18, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    18 Nov 2014 | 6:25 pm
    A nice positive day in the markets with a slightly positive skew at the opening bell and then steady buying throughout. The S&P 500 gained 0.51% and the NASDAQ 0.67%. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment gauge advanced to 58, matching the second-highest level since 2005, from 54 in October. Original post: STTG Market Recap November 18, 2014 Read the... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap November 17, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    17 Nov 2014 | 5:26 pm
    Indexes had another quiet session as we've now worked off all overbought conditions and we are in a period of consolidation. The S&P 500 gained 0.07% while the NASDAQ fell 0.37%. Investors were a bit stunned this morning by a report showing Japan's economy contracted 1.6% in the last quarter instead of the expected 2.1% gain. Original post: STTG Market Recap November 17, 2014 Read the... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap November 14, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    14 Nov 2014 | 3:05 pm
    Friday was a choppy session with little momentum as indexes have now worked off their extreme overbought conditions. The S&P 500 added 0.02% and the NASDAQ 0.18%. U.S. retail sales rose 0.5% last month when stripping out volatile elements like gasoline, autos, building materials and food services, according to the Commerce Department data released on Friday. That was the biggest... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
 
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    Peter Gallagher

  • Can multilateralism be revived?

    pwg
    16 Nov 2014 | 3:49 pm
    Shawn Donnan at the FT says that it needs a healthier life-style. Multilateralism is weaker than it has ever been. But, in trade, it has never been as robust as it seemed on the surface. For now, I doubt there is a reasonable prospect it can be revived in its original form. Instead, we should […]
  • Is a plurilateral the ‘way out’ for WTO on agriculture?

    pwg
    1 Oct 2014 | 2:42 pm
    Q: under what circumstances would a critical-mass (CM) plurilateral agreement on agriculture be a way “out of the mess” in the WTO agriculture negotiations? A: any CM plurilateral works as a “way out” of the WTO stalemate where it offers a degree of benefits to the members of the plurilateral agreement such that they were […]
  • Evaluation of a “Critical Mass” agreement on agriculture

    pwg
    1 Oct 2014 | 4:55 am
    The stalemate in Geneva on the December 2013 Bali Agreement concerning both Trade Faciliation and agriculture subsidies has revived some interest in the potential for a plurilateral agreement on Agriculture among WTO members. I attach to this brief post a pre-print of the summary that Andy Stoler and I wrote for the journal Global Governance […]
  • Editing Scrivener ‘Sync’ files

    pwg
    28 May 2014 | 4:57 am
    Do you use Scrivener? If so, and you’d like to edit your Scrivener files on another platform such as your iPad, I may have something that will help. I’ve made some ‘bundles’ and themes for the TextMate editor and the Textastic editor on the iPad that display inline annotations, comments and block-quotes in the text. […]
  • The longevity of plain TeX

    pwg
    29 Apr 2014 | 2:52 pm
    Microsoft Word was first released for MS DOS in October, 1983. Some five months earlier, Donald Knuth, a professor of computing at Stanford University, published “The TeX Book.” This was a jokey manual for, and a deft demonstration of, his TeX publishing program whose stable version first appeared in 1982. Each of these contemporary works […]
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    Political Calculations

  • A Change in Expections for the Future for Stock Prices

    21 Nov 2014 | 3:13 pm
    Friday, 21 November 2014 saw a major change in the expectations for future dividends per share in the stock market for the current quarter (2014-Q4), as measured by the Chicago Board of Exchange's dividend futures contracts, as not much changed for all of the other more distant future quarters for which we have data. Our first chart below shows the amount of quarterly dividends per share that are now expected to be paid out for the S&P 500 before the expiration of each dividend futures contract through the third quarter of 2015, which should be compared to our previous snapshot of these same…
  • How to Fold a World Champion Paper Airplane

    20 Nov 2014 | 12:49 am
    Needless to say, the secret to superior paper aerodynamics requires precise fabrication! (HT: Kottke) The paper folding tool shown in the video is surprisingly affordable, as is the bag clip!
  • Fall 2014 Snapshot of Expected Future Earnings for the S&P 500

    18 Nov 2014 | 11:58 pm
    Every three months, in the middle of each financial quarter, we've been taking a snapshot of the earnings per share for the S&P 500 that are expected going forward for as far as Standard & Poor projects them. In our last installment, we saw that there had continued to be a large amount of erosion in the expectations for stock market earnings in future quarters. This time however, it would appear that the outlook for future earnings has stabilized, which would be a positive development. We see that there has been some minor erosion in the very near term, or rather, the expectations through the…
  • Undercutting the Coyote's Business of Human Smuggling

    18 Nov 2014 | 12:15 am
    The southern land border of the United States with Mexico is 1,954 miles, or 3,145 kilometers, long. The U.S. government has established a total of 670 miles of fencing, spanning 34.3% of the length of the border. In many ways, the U.S.' Mexican border fence is just the most recent and visible barrier established between the two nations. Its history dates back to the Carter administration, which initiated the fence in response to a government bureaucrat-created "crisis": In this context, federal resources for boundary enforcement increased significantly, starting in the second half of the…
  • Bridging the Echo Gap

    16 Nov 2014 | 11:58 pm
    Today, we're testing out a super-simple method for dealing with short term echoes for our standard model for forecasting stock prices. Echoes, as our long term readers will know, are the result of past volatility in stock prices and their effect upon our forecasting model. Because our forecasting model incorporates a number of historic stock prices in the math underlying the model, from time to time when there is a larger than typical amount of volatility in the historic data, it can result in deviation between our model's projections and the actual trajectory of stock prices. The chart below…
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    Calafia Beach Pundit

  • Why the global gloom?

    21 Nov 2014 | 2:57 pm
    One popular meme these days is "the global economy is slowing down." China's economy has slowed from double digit growth rates to 7%, Japan has suffered two quarters of negative GDP growth, and the Eurozone economy has grown by less than 1% in the past year. The U.S. economy has barely managed to exceed 2% annual growth for the past five years, and people worry about the future since the Fed seems almost certain to begin raising interest rates within the next 3-6 months. Industrial commodity prices are down almost 10% in the past six months, and oil prices have plunged almost 30% since last…
  • How well do TIPS predict inflation?

    20 Nov 2014 | 3:03 pm
    Yesterday's post focused on the market's current inflation expectations for the next 5 and 10 years, as embedded in the pricing of TIPS and Treasuries. It concluded that inflation expectations are not unreasonable, and they are in line with past inflation and what is reasonable to expect going forward. This post focuses on how well the bond market's inflation-forecasting skills have proven to be.Conclusion: the bond market has more often than not tended to underestimate future inflation. For the first 12 years of the existence of TIPS, 5-yr breakeven inflation rates were lower than…
  • Inflation expectations are just fine

    19 Nov 2014 | 4:21 pm
    The minutes of the October 2014 FOMC meeting released today showed that policy makers "should remain attentive to evidence of a possible downward shift in longer-term inflation expectations." Members also worried that "if such an outcome [a downward shift of inflation expectations] occurred, it would be even more worrisome if growth faltered."The charts that follow illustrate the market's inflation expectations as implied by the pricing of TIPS and Treasury notes and bonds. They all show that although inflation expectations have declined somewhat of late, they are not unusually low. It's…
  • Our hugely progressive tax code

    17 Nov 2014 | 3:02 pm
    A newly-released study by the Congressional Budget Office was designed to demonstrate that the inequality of income distribution in the U.S. has declined in recent years, thanks to increased transfer payments and higher tax rates on the rich. As Mark Perry notes, "Almost half of the income inequality between the highest and lowest household quintiles disappears when we adjust for government transfer payments and federal taxes. Before taxes and transfers, the average income of a household in the top 20% is 15.1 times greater than the income of a household in the lowest quintile,…
  • Commercial real estate is on fire

    17 Nov 2014 | 1:04 pm
    According to the Co-Star Group, the commercial real estate market is doing extremely well. As the chart above shows, a value-weighted measure of commercial property price indices has risen at a 10% annualized pace for the five years ended September 2014, and prices now exceed their pre-recession high. An equal-weighted measure is up over 14% in the past year.Here are some of the headlines:COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE PRICE SURGE CONTINUES IN THIRD QUARTERBoth the value-weighted and the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Indices of the CCRSI made strong gains in September 2014 to close the quarter. The…
 
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    Donald Marron

  • Spin Alert: DOE Loans Are Losing Money, Not Making Profits

    Donald
    17 Nov 2014 | 8:32 am
    The Department of Energy snookered the media last week with a report that seems to show that its clean energy lending programs are profitable. “Remember Solyndra? Those loans are making money,” went a typical headline. Unfortunately, that’s not true. Taxpayers are losing money on DOE lending. Less than originally expected, and less than you would expect given media coverage of Solyndra, Fisker, and a few other failed loans. But smaller losses are still losses, not profits. To understand DOE’s spin, consider a simple example. Suppose your spouse borrows $10,000 from a bank at 5 percent…
  • A “Normal” Budget Isn’t Really Normal

    Donald
    20 Oct 2014 | 7:15 am
    Treasury closed the financial books on fiscal 2014 last week. As my colleague Howard Gleckman noted, the top line figures all came in close to their 40-year averages. The $483 billion deficit was about 2.8 percent of gross domestic product, for example, slightly below the 3.2 percent average of the past four decades. Tax revenues clocked in at 17.5 percent of GDP, a smidgen above their 17.3 percent 40-year average. And spending was 20.3 percent, a bit below its 20.5 percent average. Taxes, spending, and deficits thus appear to be back to “normal.” If anything, fiscal policy in 2014 was…
  • The $300 Billion Question: How Should Congress Budget for Federal Lending Programs?

    Donald
    29 Sep 2014 | 9:48 am
    Lending programs create special challenges for federal budgeting. So special, in fact, that the Congressional Budget Office estimates their budget effects two different ways. According to official budget rules, taxpayers will earn more than $200 billion over the next decade from new student loans, mortgage guarantees, and the Export-Import Bank. According to an alternative that CBO favors, taxpayers will lose more than $100 billion. Those competing estimates pose a $300 billion question: Which budgeting approach is best? As I document in a new report and policy brief, the answer is neither…
  • Four Myths about Entrepreneurship

    Donald
    17 Sep 2014 | 1:40 pm
    Dane Stangler at the Kauffman Foundation debunks four myths about entrepreneurship: Spoiler: 20-somethings make headlines, but founders in their 30s and 40s are more important. (Disclosure: The Kauffman Foundation funds some of my research at the Urban Institute.)
  • Does the Export-Import Bank Make or Lose Money?

    Donald
    10 Sep 2014 | 9:00 am
    Suppose your aunt decides to start a business making pizza ovens. She will design and build the ovens, and her daughter will manage operations. A bank is ready to lend her $100,000 to get started, but it wants someone to co-sign and be on the hook if she misses any payments. She offers to pay you $6,000 to do so. A business-savvy friend tells you that missed payments on such a loan average $2,000, usually less, occasionally much more. He also reports that $7,000 is the going rate for co-signing. Those insights spark lively family debate. Your aunt believes her proposal is a no-brainer. She…
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    Supply and Demand (in that order)

  • Professor Krugman continues to misinform readers about Romneycare

    18 Nov 2014 | 5:32 pm
    "Obamacare is, in all important respects, identical to Romneycare." Get the economics of Obamacare and Romneycare from Side Effects: The Economic Consequences of the Health Reform.  Especially Chapter 10, entitled "Romneycare times Eleven":Overall, the ACA erodes nationwide average work incentives about eleven times more than Romneycare did in the state of Massachusetts . Table 10.1 is a good summary of why the differences are so dramatic: the amounts involved and the fraction of the potential workforce presented with a new income or employment tax as a consequence of health reform.The…
  • CSPAN covers economic impact

    15 Nov 2014 | 9:05 am
    At the 4:58 mark, Dr. Aaron acknowledges that "there is a tradeoff." That was a big surprise to me, because Dr. Aaron was the lead signatory on the economists' letter to Congress saying that there is no tradeoff: the ACA both helps people and grows the economy.
  • Private and Public Comments on Health Cost Growth

    14 Nov 2014 | 7:43 am
    Once upon a time, it was acknowledged in academic circles that the ACA did little to cut the growth rate of health care costs. See, for example, 24:05 and following in this video:But then in this economists' letter to Congress and the American public, the same parties are claiming that the effect of the ACA on health care cost growth is so tremendous (in the direction of less cost) that it would create up to 400,000 jobs EVERY YEAR!Another (unrelated and) excessively truthful part of this video starts just before the 24:00 mark "The American public doesn't actually care that much about the…
  • Leveraging a Lack of Economic Understanding

    12 Nov 2014 | 11:27 am
    Anticipated here (italics added): A job, Mr. Mulligan explains, "is a transaction between buyers and sellers. When a transaction doesn't happen, it doesn't happen. We know that it doesn't matter on which side of the market you put the disincentives, the results are the same. . . . In this case you're putting an implicit tax on work for households, and employers aren't willing to compensate the households enough so they'll still work." Jobs can be destroyed by sellers (workers) as much as buyers (businesses). Mr. Mulligan reserves particular scorn for the economists making this…
  • More video about ACA design fooling the voters

    12 Nov 2014 | 7:06 am
    This is NOT the video from UPenn. This was is from Wash U, and I believe that Fox News uncovered it.Jump to 30:11 for the discussion of how to undo the tax subsidy for health insurance. And watch for 90 seconds.
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Soil Scientists Seeking Super Model

    Bob Carpenter
    20 Nov 2014 | 1:54 pm
    I (Bob) spent last weekend at Biosphere 2, collaborating with soil carbon biogeochemists on a “super model.” Model combination and expansion The biogeochemists (three sciences in one!) have developed hundreds of competing models and the goal of the workshop was to kick off some projects on putting some of them together intos wholes that are greater than the sum of their parts. We’ll be doing some mixture (and perhaps change point) modeling, which makes sense here because of different biogeochemical processes at work based on system evolution and extrinsic conditions (some of…
  • Retrospective clinical trials?

    Andrew
    20 Nov 2014 | 6:40 am
    Kelvin Leshabari writes: I am a young medical doctor in Africa who wondered if it is possible to have a retrospective designed randomised clinical trial and yet be sound valid in statistical sense. This is because to the best of my knowledge, the assumptions underlying RCT methodology include that data is obtained in a prospective manner! We are now about to design a new study in a clinical set up and during literature search we encountered few data published with such a design in mind. It has risen some confusion among the trialists whether we should include the findings and account for them…
  • Replication controversies

    Andrew
    19 Nov 2014 | 7:12 am
    I don’t know what ATR is but I’m glad somebody is on the job of prohibiting replication catastrophe: Seriously, though, I’m on a list regarding a reproducibility project, and someone forwarded along this blog by psychology researcher Simone Schnall, whose attitudes we discussed several months ago in the context of some controversies about attempted replications of some of her work in social psychology. I’ll return at the end to my remarks from July, but first I’d like to address Schnall’s recent blog, which I found unsettling. There are some technical…
  • 4-year-old post on Arnold Zellner is oddly topical

    Andrew
    19 Nov 2014 | 6:20 am
    I’m re-running this Arnold Zellner obituary because it is relevant to two recent blog discussions: 1. Differences between econometrics and statistics 2. Old-fashioned sexism (of the quaint, not the horrible, variety) The post 4-year-old post on Arnold Zellner is oddly topical appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • Stan hits bigtime

    Andrew
    18 Nov 2014 | 4:44 pm
    First Wikipedia, then the Times (featuring Yair Ghitza), now Slashdot (featuring Allen “PyStan” Riddell). Just get us on Gawker and we’ll have achieved total media saturation. Next step, backlash. Has Stan jumped the shark? Etc. (We’d love to have a “jump the shark” MCMC algorithm but I don’t know if or when we’ll get there. I’m still struggling trying to get wedge sampling to work.) The post Stan hits bigtime appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
 
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    Capital Chronicle

  • Money can't buy happiness...

    20 Nov 2014 | 1:09 pm
    ...but a little bit helps.If your browser does not display the graphic the full article is here.
  • Relative value: signal vs noise

    6 Nov 2014 | 2:27 am
    Two competing – but sometimes overlapping – approaches to relative value / pairs trading are to take either a fundamental ‘signal’ view based on changes to factors such as the accounts, the economy, the CFO’s penchant for recognizing revenue early and so on; and the ‘noise’ approach whereby the trader concentrates on the divergence in value of the instruments for reasons unrelated to changes in fundamental conditions.Bloomberg occasionally publish pairs trading ideas in the first category. Like this one for HCN/SPG. One reading suggests that it is really a macroeconomic call…
  • World Economic Outlook, 2014: forecasting made easy

    9 Oct 2014 | 5:57 am
    Three econometricians are out hunting. They spot a stag. Given this is a story about economists let us assume it is a deaf stag.The first econometrician aims, fires but misses to the left by a metre. The second econometrician takes aim, fires and also misses - but by a metre to the right. The third econometrician does not take aim or fire. Exultant, he cries out "Nailed it!"Visually this joke appears thus: Source: Page 26, World Economic Outlook, Oct 2014 (IMF)  
  • Uncertainty vs risk: S&P500 volatility since 1929

    7 Jul 2014 | 1:49 pm
    This from Goldman Sachs' Top of Mind Global Macro Research report of 25 Jun, 2014:Although the detail within the GS report is balanced this shorter and sharper piece from the FT's Underground Economist distills the debate with no great loss of message.(And that Professor Bloom paper the FT cites is here)
  • Curse of Reinhart & Rogoff strikes Piketty

    23 May 2014 | 11:28 pm
    If only Mr. Rogoff had waited a couple of weeks before reviewing Mr. Piketty's opus here the result might have been far more entertaining (as well as thought-provoking).Why? Mr. Piketty got the R&R treatment from the FT this week (right here, you may have to register to see). Some of the criticism is about data sources; some is about data adjustments; and some concerns data selection. But the underlying question is about the combination of these and their subsequent interpretation.The New York Times captures that last point when commenting on this graphic from the FT piece written by…
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    TheMoneyIllusion

  • Were market monetarists wrong about Japan?

    ssumner
    19 Nov 2014 | 11:55 am
    If there has been any blogger more accurate than me in their claims about Japan in recent years, please send me all his/her relevant posts, so I can can give him/her some praise. Just to review: 1.  I predicted the BOJ would be able to depreciate the yen, if it choose to do so.  I’ve been proved right again and again.  Paul Krugman had doubts. 2.  I predicted monetary stimulus would boost inflation, but that they’d fail to hit their 2% target (excluding taxes).  I was right.  Krugman’s been all over the map, hostile to fiscal stimulus in the late 1990s, then too…
  • At the other extreme . . .

    ssumner
    18 Nov 2014 | 7:00 am
    A quick follow up to my previous post.  Australia has seen 3% RGDP growth over the past 12 months, and 2.7% the year before, and 3.6% the year before.  Great news eh?  Here’s Australia’s unemployment rate over the past 12 months: That’s what happens when you have a high trend RGDP growth rate.  
  • The USA doesn’t have any debatable recessions. That’s about to change

    ssumner
    17 Nov 2014 | 7:50 pm
    The US has a really weird economy.  All our recessions are 100% clear-cut.  Either we have a recession or we don’t.  Normal countries have borderline recessions.  Not us.  Either our unemployment rate rises far too little to be viewed as a recession, or so much that 100% of economists agree it’s a recession.  I don’t know why that is. And I don’t know why other economists don’t view it as really weird.  Maybe people just notice things that happen, not things that don’t.  Not dogs that don’t bark. I believe this weird pattern is about to end,…
  • Is Japan in recession?

    ssumner
    16 Nov 2014 | 6:34 pm
    The media says yes.  I say if Japan is in recession it’s time to redefine the term. Here is the Japanese unemployment rate over the past few years: The unemployment rate in Japan is currently 3.6%, one of the lowest figures in decades.  It’s true that the Japanese unemployment statistics are a bit peculiar, but so are all their other data.  And when they are unquestionably in recession, as during 2008-09, the unemployment rate in Japan rises just as in any other country. Welcome to the new world of business cycles.  Japan is a country with low productivity growth and a working…
  • The real “beggar-thy-neighbor” policy

    ssumner
    16 Nov 2014 | 10:07 am
    Proponents of fiscal stimulus often call on Germany to adopt a more expansionary fiscal policy, in the hope that this will help rebalance and reflate the entire eurozone.  It’s possible it might work, but it’s also possible it might end up being a “beggar-thy-neighbor” policy. Suppose the ECB is targeting inflation. Fiscal stimulus in Germany will be partly offset (in Germany) by tighter monetary policy. The ECB will want to keep overall eurozone inflation on target.  Hence it will offset any impact on NGDP.  But some of the effect of tighter eurozone monetary…
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    Jesse's Café Américain

  • Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Comex Option Expiration Monday

    21 Nov 2014 | 1:28 pm
    Next week will be a short trading week because of the US Thanksgiving holiday. Monday will be the last Comex option expiration for the year, for the December contract. We may wish to brace for shenanigans.   We are reaching a more critical point in the markets, but do not, absolutely do not, expect this to be easy.     The big changes
  • SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Another Record Close, Sweet Dreams Baby

    21 Nov 2014 | 1:15 pm
    Next week will be a short holiday week with the Thanksgiving Holiday on Thursday, and 'Black Friday' the day after when everyone goes shopping for happiness and fulfillment. We will see the second estimate of Q3 GDP on Tuesday. The market is hitting a bit of a high note here, with record close after record close. The
  • Senator Levin: Fed Enabled Banks To Elbow Way Into Commodities, Manipulate Prices

    21 Nov 2014 | 9:20 am
    Apparently Senator Levin is not expecting many $250,000 speaking engagements from Wall Street after he leaves the Senate. The Wall Street Banks have NO business using their subsidized banking funds and deposits to speculate in global markets for their own accounts. This was the basic safeguard provided by Glass-Steagall for almost sixty years that was overturned in a bipartisan political
  • Dutch Quietly Repatriate 120 Tonnes of Gold From New York

    21 Nov 2014 | 8:45 am
    It looks like the Dutch brought back 120 tonnes of their gold from New York while no one was looking. From the Ukraine, with love?  Perhaps they contributed their 30 tonnes which was last seen headed West on a night flight in April. Meanwhile Germany obediently waits, for years, and the Swiss dither.
  • Russian Gold Reserves Continue to Expand

    20 Nov 2014 | 4:10 pm
    Russia added another 600,000 oz to its reserves in October. Nothing to see here.  Move along.
 
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    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • Why workers matter

    chris dillow
    21 Nov 2014 | 5:20 am
    So far this month, the FTSE 100 has risen 2.7%. There's a link between this fact and Emily Thornberry's resignation for that tweet. The Footsie's gain is consistent with one of the strongest tendencies in finance - for Halloween to be a buy signal. This has an important and under-appreciated implication. It implies that, underneath their smart suits and brass name-plates, professional investors are in fact just like our pagan ancestors. They get gloomy around Samhain thus pushing share prices too low, and cheerful around May Day, which sends prices too high: the counterpart of…
  • The turn away from politics

    chris dillow
    20 Nov 2014 | 6:15 am
    Julie Bindel reminds me of one of my pet theories - that nobody is much interested in politics. By nobody I don't just mean ordinary Joes and Joannas but also people who think of themselves as political, and even professional politicians. Let's start by defining politics. Oakeshott called it (pdf)  "the activity of attending to the general arrangements of a set of people whom chance or choice have brought together." Lasswell defined (pdf) it as "who gets what, when and how". Either definition will do for my purposes. Ms Bindel writes of (some?) feminists:…
  • Klass war

    chris dillow
    18 Nov 2014 | 6:01 am
    Myleene Klass's attack on the Mansion Tax has been met with cheering on the right and mockery on the left. Such tribalism overlooks a more important point - that the celebocracy which leads TV bosses to put people like Myleene onto political shows has a systematic pernicious effect. An experiment (pdf) by James Andreoni and Justin Rao shows why. They got people to play simple dictator games in which one person could choose whether to share some money with another. They found that communication greatly influenced dictators' behaviour. When recipents were allowed to ask for money,…
  • Cameron's lousy defence

    chris dillow
    17 Nov 2014 | 6:07 am
    In today's Guardian, David Cameron commits one of the most atrocious non sequiturs I've ever seen. He begins from a reasonable premise - that "wider problems in the global economy pose a real risk to our recovery at home": emerging markets are slowing down; the euro area is close to recession; and uncertainty in Russia and the middle east might also depress growth. But then comes this: As the global economy faces greater uncertainty, it is more important than ever that we send a clear message to the world that Britain is not going to waver on dealing with its debts. This…
  • Encouraging financial innovation

    chris dillow
    16 Nov 2014 | 5:05 am
    Reading Luis Garicano and Lucrezia Reichlin's argument for the creation of a synthetic safe eurobond through which the ECB can conduct QE, an old question arose: why do we see so much bad financial innovation and so little good? I say this is an old question because it is now over 20 years since Robert Shiller wrote Macro Markets, in which he proposed the creation of financial products to manage macroeconomic risks, and yet we've seen little progress on this front. What we have seen, though, is the creation of mortgage derivatives which contributed to the crash. This illustrates a…
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    David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

  • The Bank conjures up a sweet spot for Osborne

    David Smith
    16 Nov 2014 | 1:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The Bank of England’s latest quarterly inflation report has attracted a lot of comment, mainly because it confirmed the Bank’s “lower for longer” view on interest...
  • Bank trims growth and inflation forecasts as wages pick up

    David Smith
    12 Nov 2014 | 3:45 am
    The Bank of England has taken a slightly more downbeat view of growth and a very downbeat growth of inflation over the next few months, with Mark Carney, the governor, warning that consumer price inflation could drop below 1%. If...
  • In many ways, business in Britain has never had it so good

    David Smith
    9 Nov 2014 | 1:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Is Britain a good place to do business? It is, in the end, the most fundamental question for the economy. If not, then we are condemned...
  • IEA's shadow MPC votes 5-4 for quarter-point rate hike

    David Smith
    2 Nov 2014 | 1:00 am
    At its meeting of Tuesday 14th October, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) recommended that Bank Rate should be raised by ¼% on Thursday 6th November. Those urging a rate increase took the view that...
  • Eurozone starts to look a lot like Japan

    David Smith
    26 Oct 2014 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. How worried should we be about the eurozone? Is the single currency area, the weakest link in the global economic chain since the crisis, about to...
 
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    Project Syndicate RSS-Feed

  • Germany’s Four Neins

    Marcel Fratzscher
    21 Nov 2014 | 6:20 am
    Germany’s stance toward Europe has become one of refusal and rejection: No to a more active fiscal policy for distressed eurozone countries; no to a European investment agenda to boost demand; no to anything but a domestic budget surplus; and, most ominously, no to the European Central Bank. On all four counts, Germany is wrong.
  • China’s New Global Leadership

    Jeffrey D. Sachs
    21 Nov 2014 | 5:20 am
    The biggest economic news of the year came almost without notice: China has overtaken the US as the world’s largest economy. And, while China’s geopolitical status is rising rapidly, alongside its economic might, the US continues to squander its global leadership.
  • The Children’s Revolution

    Gordon Brown
    21 Nov 2014 | 4:20 am
    The world can end child labor, child marriage, child trafficking, and discrimination against girls by establishing a new international children’s court and, with it, a proper reporting and sanctions system. In fact, violations of children’s rights are now so rampant that there simply is no alternative.
  • Post-Soviet Confidence Games

    Stefan Wolff
    20 Nov 2014 | 4:20 am
    It is starting to look like a pattern: After painstaking talks, the parties in the Ukraine conflict come to an agreement – only to have it fall apart or fail to be fully implemented. And confidence-building efforts aimed at resolving other post-Soviet conflicts do not offer much room for hope.
  • The Fed’s Culture War

    Mark Roe
    20 Nov 2014 | 2:30 am
    At a recent closed-door conference, Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo and Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley used their bully pulpit to do something unexpected. Instead of focusing on the banks, the officials discussed the bankers themselves.
 
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    OilPrice.com Daily News Update

  • Russia Can Survive An Oil Price War

    20 Nov 2014 | 1:35 pm
    After a frosty reception at the G20 summit in Australia this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin required some much needed rest, at least according to the official explanation given for his conspicuously early departure from the proceedings. All things considered it could have been a lot worse. Russia finds itself in familiar territory after a controversial half-year, highlighted by the bloody and still unresolved situation in Ukraine. Nonetheless, the prospect of further sanctions looms low and Russia’s stores of oil and gas remain high.…Read more...
  • State Budgets Reeling from Low Oil Prices

    20 Nov 2014 | 12:40 pm
    There has been a lot of attention paid to the harm that the oil industry is experiencing in the face of declining oil prices, but there has been little talk about how strained state budgets may become due to lower oil tax revenues. Several states in the U.S. that are overly dependent on oil to meet their budget forecasts are starting to come to grips with the fact that their spending plans may not work in a low priced environment. Oil prices have dropped by more than 30 percent since the summer, with WTI prices dropping below $75 per barrel in…Read more...
  • The US Shale Breakeven Price Debate

    20 Nov 2014 | 12:25 pm
    My favorite quote by H.L. Mencken is ‘a cynic is a man who, when he smells flowers, looks around for a coffin‘. A bit morose, I know, but this appeals to the contrarian in me. My second favorite is überly-applicable to US shale oil break-evens: ‘For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong‘. For there is no lack of estimates flying around as to the price level at which US shale oil production could be curtailed. The problem is, they all appear to be different. The debate was ignited…Read more...
  • The Economic And Strategic Implications Of Low Oil Prices

    20 Nov 2014 | 12:05 pm
    If oil prices continue to spiral downward, what will be the economic and strategic results? Not too bad, says Gawdat Bahgat. Consumers will benefit at the expense of producers and, perhaps more controversially, the ‘oil for security’ bargain crafted between Western powers and Middle Eastern suppliers will remain intact. Shortly after the 1973 Arab-Israeli war Arab oil producing countries cut production and imposed an oil embargo on the United States and a few other countries in retaliation for their support of Israel. This led to a…Read more...
  • Texas Railroad Commission November Production Report

    20 Nov 2014 | 11:56 am
      The Texas RRC Data Base came out a few days ago. The data is reported through September but of course it is incomplete. The data from the field comes in very slow in Texas and the RRC only reports the data they receive. All data is through September and is in barrels per day.Crude has only shown a slight downward trend for the last two months. After revision, when the final data comes in, production will likely still be up slightly but if this is any indication, it will be up less than in months past.Texas condensate production started a…Read more...
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    zentrader.ca

  • The US Dollar Remains Stubbornly Bullish

    Jeff Pierce
    21 Nov 2014 | 9:32 am
    By Poly This is an excerpt from this week’s premium update from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly. Now offering monthly & quarterly subscriptions with 30 day refund. Promo code ZEN saves 10%. The Dollar stubbornly refuses to fall, even though it too (like crude/bonds) is very deep into its Daily and Investor Cycle timing. Technically it is weakening, as seen within the indicators on the chart below. I believe this is a sign that the dollar has…
  • S&P 500 Stretched Like A Spring

    chris
    20 Nov 2014 | 10:57 am
    By Chris Ebert Stock prices tend to act like a spring. The further they are stretched to their limits, the further they tend to snap back in the opposite direction. The opposite is also true. When stock prices are not stretched very far, they don’t recoil nearly s far in the opposite direction when the stretching force is removed. This is particularly true of large baskets of stock – stock indexes such as the Dow, Nasdaq or S&P 500 – since the forces that can move an index are limited. Earnings or other news can move an individual stock, but for a large index the news tends to…
  • All-Time Highs Possible In Bear Markets

    chris
    16 Nov 2014 | 5:00 am
    By Chris Ebert The stock market is hot. There’s no denying it. Yet, it just doesn’t feel the same as it did a few months ago, or for most of the past several years for that matter. It’s like there is something missing. Perhaps there truly is something missing – something big. It’s almost impossible to know for certain. It is possible to speculate as to the exact nature of what it is that is currently missing (big hands, little hands, hedge funds, HFTs, corporate fundamentals, QE, etc.) but the truth may never be known. The effects, on the other hand, are known. Additionally, given…
  • Equities – It’s Never Different This Time

    Jeff Pierce
    15 Nov 2014 | 5:35 pm
    By Poly This is an excerpt from this week’s premium update from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly. Now offering monthly & quarterly subscriptions with 30 day refund. Promo code ZEN saves 10%. I’m going to spend little time on the equity markets this week, covering just the fundamentals of where the Cycle’s stand. I’m convinced now that the equity markets are peaking, into their final bull market speculative run that will soon end badly for…
  • Trick Quickly Reveals Stock Price Manipulation

    chris
    9 Nov 2014 | 5:00 am
    By Chris Ebert It can be fascinating, yet horribly frustrating, to realize that stock prices are not a mathematical function. If stock prices behaved as a mathematical function, there would be only one outcome for a given set of conditions. For example, if a stock price fell to the 200-day simple moving average, and always moved higher immediately afterward; the bounce higher would be a function of the simple moving average. Output is, in reality  not a function of input for stock prices. Stock prices are always stochastic no matter how deterministic their appearance. While it is true that…
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    MartinKronicle - Michael Martin

  • The Most Important Thing About Trading…

    Michael Martin
    13 Nov 2014 | 12:19 pm
    Similar Posts: One Thing I Learned While Not Trading for Victor Niederhoffer Reader Question on Trading Systems v. Discretion (Prop Trading) Prop Trading Gold: 4 Things To Consider Before Trading Inside Prop Trading & Prop Trading Firms Prop Trading Firms
  • Managing the Disney Call option Position – Part 2

    Michael Martin
    25 Sep 2014 | 12:36 am
    This lesson discusses a few of the choices you could make if you are still Long the DIS JAN15 70 Calls. If you missed that video, you can see it below or click here to see the original post from October 2013. Similar Posts: How Gold Is Being Traded Now One Way To Make More $$$ in 2010: Follow-Up Better The Touch, The Feel of Trading Cotton Spreads How To Short Sell Gold $GC_F UK Election Aftermath GBP FXB
  • The Most Powerful Trader in the World

    Michael Martin
    30 Jan 2014 | 11:28 am
    Once you’ve mastered putting in protective stops, you’ll feel empowered. Why? Because at that point you are emotionally balanced and are WILLING to transfer the risk to someone else and exit with a small loss. You have emotional and financial understanding that trading is a process and that any one trade is meaningless over 1,000s of trades. At that point you have personal power in that trading is just one part of your day and your life is abundant. And you don’t need to tell anyone about your trading. You’re in love with your process – be it mechanical or…
  • Anatomy of a Trader’s Mindset

    Michael Martin
    22 Jan 2014 | 8:54 am
    I had a great chat with one of my students last week and something hit me from our conversation. Like me (and probably you) he’s an avid reader. It was such a great conversation, I came away with something… We were talking about the most recent assignment that he was working on and he got WAAAAY off the subject by telling me all the fundamentals of the company etc “In 2002, they listed on the FTSE and their main product was…” and I was like “Whoa, what the heck does 2002 have to do with today and trading in the ever-evolving moment of NOW in January…
  • Keep Calm and Enter Your Stops

    Michael Martin
    14 Jan 2014 | 1:14 am
    The Sugar trade I mentioned a few weeks ago that almost tripled one of my accounts had a lot of things going on inside it. But making the money was a symptom of several factors, some of which might surprise you. Of course, it goes without saying that I was powerless over the move in Sugar itself, so the best thing I could have done is what I did do: add some risk to my account and enter a protective stop to knock me out if I was wrong. I should also add that I had no clue the trade would develop even remotely the way it did when it started out. Technology-wise, I used EOD data from my broker…
 
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    NEW ECONOMY

  • How the U.S. Government Could End the Student Debt Crisis Today

    Raúl Carrillo
    12 Nov 2014 | 1:25 pm
    Photo by Shutterstock. Last month, Lower Saxony became the final state in Germany to abolish tuition for all students at public universities. Meanwhile, in the United States, student loan debt has passed the $1 trillion mark. The burden is now becoming increasingly heavy for middle-class and wealthy students, but especially for those from lower-income backgrounds. This injustice has spurred many organizations, like the Occupy Wall Street offshoot Strike Debt, to do what they can to pay off student debt on their own. The student-debt status quo taxes borrowers while doing less and less to…
  • Bikes! Co-Ops! Voyages of Self-Discovery! This Project Brings Together Everything You Love

    Mary Hansen
    6 Nov 2014 | 2:37 pm
    This article originally appeared at the Field Guide to a Regenerative Economy. In the summers of 2012 and 2013 a group of college students and recent grads bicycled across America. They visited cooperatives, honed their own cooperative skills, re-imagined the country they were about to inherit, and, along the way, discovered themselves. Here is their story. In the 2012 U.N.-declared “International Year of Cooperatives,” a collective of college students created a project called Co-Cycle. They were 12 friends who wanted to experience the nation that they were to inherit. They wanted to…
  • “We Couldn’t Possibly Be Poor”: How a Doctor Fell Into Poverty

    Robin Dickinson
    3 Nov 2014 | 12:55 pm
    Photo by Michael Newman / Flickr The ER doctor looked grave as he pulled his stool close to the hospital bed where I was sitting with my husband and two small children. “I’m really sorry to have to tell you this. There’s no easy way.” As a family physician, I recognized those words: We’re trained to warn someone before we tell them bad news. Then I realized he was saying I’d had two strokes. I can’t talk about federal nutrition assistance, or my first experience using it, without smiling. In that one brief moment, my life completely changed. I had no cognitive problems and was…
  • Before the Zombie Apocalypse—These 4 Trade Deals Were Ravaging the World!

    James Trimarco
    29 Oct 2014 | 11:39 am
    This time of year, the fabric that separates our world from prowling ghouls is at its thinnest. But what really keeps us at YES! Magazine up at night are the international trade agreements constantly being negotiated by the United States and its partners—each one more terrifying than the last. These deals have a way of favoring corporations over people. How can something as pleasant-sounding as “free trade” be more threatening than a zombie apocalypse? The devil’s in the details, and the fine print on some of these agreements is enough to curdle a bucket of blood. Whether it’s…
  • Own the Change: Building Economic Democracy One Worker Co-op at a Time

    Kayla Schultz
    24 Oct 2014 | 12:10 pm
    "We moved from land ownership to home ownership, and it's time we move to workplace ownership." While many companies were cutting jobs during the recession, worker owned co-ops were growing and hiring employees. Not only do workers own a part of the business, but they are involved in decisions, and share responsibilities. This video, a trailer from a collaboration between GRITtv and the Toolbox for Education and Social Action, highlights the difficulties in developing a worker owned co-op, but those difficulties do not outweigh the benefits. A community develops in the workplace where co-op…
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    Central Bank News

  • Central Bank News Link List - Nov 21, 2014 - China cut reflecting domestic reasons carries global resonance

    centralbanknews.info
    21 Nov 2014 | 9:06 am
    Here's today's Central Bank News' link list click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.China cut reflecting domestic reasons carries global resonance (Bloomberg)Draghi throws ECB door open to money printing as global prospects dim (Reuters)HIGHLIGHTS-China explains its first rate cut in over two years (Reuters)Canada inflation jumps in October, pressuring the central bank…
  • China cuts key rate 40 bps, deposit rate by 25 bps

    centralbanknews.info
    21 Nov 2014 | 5:24 am
        China's central bank cut its benchmark one-year lending rate by 40 basis points to 5.6 percent, the first rate cut since July 2012, along with the one-year deposit rate that was cut by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent.    The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said in a statement that the new interest rates would take effect from Saturday, Nov. 22.    The PBOC also continued the process of liberalizing interest rates, allowing banks to pay depositors up to 1.2 times the benchmark rate, up from 1.1 times.     In an accompanying statement, the PBOC…
  • Central Bank News Link List - Nov 20, 2014 - Yellen gets that sinking feeling Greenspan once knew

    centralbanknews.info
    20 Nov 2014 | 8:37 pm
    Here's today's Central Bank News' link list click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.Yellen gets that sinking feeling Greenspan once knew (Bloomberg)Japan finance minister Aso: recent yen weakening ‘too rapid’ (Reuters)Fed’s Bullard says central bank ‘boxed in’ to June hike (WSJ/MarketWatch)Wall Street dealers see Fed raising rates in June: NY Fed survey (Reuters)U.S.
  • South Africa holds rate on lower inflation, weak economy

    centralbanknews.info
    20 Nov 2014 | 7:57 am
        South Africa's central bank maintained its benchmark repurchase rate at 5.75 percent, as expected, due to the lower trajectory of inflation and weak state of the economy.    But the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), which has raised its rate by 75 basis points so far this year, said it still believes that rates have to be raised over time and the "timing of future rate increases will be dependent on a range of factors, including the evolution of inflation expectations, the speed of normalization of monetary policy in the US and the state of the domestic…
  • Turkey holds rates, tight stance until inflation improves

    centralbanknews.info
    20 Nov 2014 | 6:24 am
        Turkey's central bank kept its policy rates steady, including the benchmark repo rate at 8.25 percent, and confirmed its guidance that the "tight monetary policy stance will be maintained, by keeping a flat yield curve, until there is a significant improvement in the inflation outlook."    But the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), which raised its repo rate in January by 550 basis points and then cut it by 175 points from May through July, turned slightly more optimistic about the outlook, saying the contribution of domestic demand to growth was increasing…
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    Business Insider

  • Stewart Butterfield Says His Insanely Popular App Slack Is 'Terrible' Today

    Julie Bort
    21 Nov 2014 | 4:19 pm
    Slack an app that lets coworkers chat with one another has been taking the enterprise world by storm. Launched to the public in February, Slack has nabbed more 300,000 people as users, 73,000 of them paid users, and recently raised $120 million in investment, making the startup worth $1.12 billion. You'd think that its popularity would be validating to the man responsible for it, Stewart Butterfield who, prior to Slack, was best known as a cofounder of Flickr. Not so. In an interview with MIT Technology Review, when asked about if he was working to improve Slack, he answered with refreshing…
  • Elon Musk On Tesla's Gigafactory: We Didn't Manipulate Nevada Into Anything (TSLA)

    Sam Colt
    21 Nov 2014 | 4:14 pm
    Tesla CEO Elon Musk has responded to critics of his plans to build a battery "gigafactory" in Nevada. Musk defended his company's plans in a blog post entitled "The House Always Wins," a reference to casino gambling. "There have been several articles recently implying that Tesla, through clever machinations, maneuvered Nevada into providing an overly large incentive package for the Gigafactory," said Musk. "I love backhanded compliments as much as the next person, but this is untrue." Musk was presumably referring to an investigative report in Fortune that detailed how several states competed…
  • Tina Fey's New Show Picked Up By Netflix

    Matt Johnston
    21 Nov 2014 | 4:03 pm
    Tina Fey's newest show has a new home before it even moved into the old one. "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt" was canceled from NBC and shortly after, picked up by Netflix, according to Deadline Hollywood. It is set to debut in March on Netflix, which is around the same time it was supposed to happen on NBC. “The very construct of Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt — its offbeat premise, hilarious and rich characters and serialized storytelling — make it a perfect Netflix comedy series,” Cindy Holland, VP of Original Content at Netflix told Deadline Hollywood. “Tina and Robert’s unique comic…
  • Europe Can't Split Google In Two Anyway, These Antitrust Experts Say (GOOG)

    Matt Rosoff
    21 Nov 2014 | 3:55 pm
    The European parliament is thinking about making a ruling that Google split off its search engine from other parts of its business, according to a report today in the Financial Times.  But we were wondering: how can Europe order an American company to break apart? How would that even work? "I don't know," answered Herbert Hovenkamp, a law professor at the University of Iowa who is considered one of the leading American experts on European antitrust law. "I think it’d be very difficult for Google to disaggregate all its own assets and interests from Google Search just in Europe.
  • Hillary Clinton's Top Supporters Insist She Could Lose In 2016

    Colin Campbell and Hunter Walker
    21 Nov 2014 | 3:03 pm
    Hillary Clinton seems to have a very clear path to the White House in 2016. A slew of polls have shown her leading all her likely Democratic primary rivals. While that kind of prime positioning obviously has its advantages, being the front-runner hasn't worked for four Democrats in recent races — including Clinton in 2008. In a recent piece, the New Yorker's Ryan Lizza spoke to experts who warned Clinton could fall into this "inevitability trap" once again in the next election. On Friday, top Clinton supporters gathered in New York City for a meeting of the finance council of "Ready For…
 
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    Business + Economy – Articles – The Conversation

  • Anti-corruption bar set higher, but Australia still has more to do

    AJ Brown, Professor of Public Policy & Law at Griffith University
    20 Nov 2014 | 5:49 pm
    Many countries still need to clean up their act on anti-corruption and whistleblowing protections. ShutterstockDespite the adoption of a third two-year G20 Anti-Corruption Action Plan, corruption received only a few lines in the latest G20 leaders’ communique. The credibility of the G20 as a whole now rests on doing better on the detail. After all, the driving reason why leaders have consolidated anti-corruption measures as part of the core G20 agenda is to promote honesty and integrity in the world’s governmental and financial affairs. The high point from the summit was G20 leaders’…
  • Bankers are about to ensure money transfers go underground

    Supriya Singh, Professor, Sociology of Communications, Graduate School of Business & Law at RMIT University
    20 Nov 2014 | 5:49 pm
    Millions of people around the world rely on money transfer operators to send funds to their families. Gregory Wake/Flickr, CC BY-NC-SANext week, Australian bank Westpac will become the last of the big four banks to stop serving money transfer operators, amid concerns about breaching laws on money laundering and terrorist financing. There is the whiff of the illicit about sending money overseas in Anglo-American countries. Sending money to parents and siblings does not feel natural, for it is not a cultural practice. Parents and grandparents give money to children and grandchildren, but money…
  • How much bang for a buck? Working out the returns on government spending

    Efrem Castelnuovo, Principal Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research - Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics and Business at University of Melbourne
    20 Nov 2014 | 5:43 pm
    Not all leaders agree on the path to boosting economic growth. Paul Miller/AAPG20 leaders have put growth and employment at the centre of the global agenda. To spur collective growth by more than 2% over five years, member countries have agreed to implement a package of structural reforms (among others, increasing quality investment in infrastructure, reducing barriers to trade, creating more employment opportunities, and increasing market competition). Such policies are proposed to overcome the allegedly limited effectiveness of standard monetary and fiscal policy tools. Given historic‐low…
  • Television is not dead, it's just changing channels

    Marc C-Scott, Lecturer in Digital Media at Victoria University
    20 Nov 2014 | 11:26 am
    Australians are increasingly tuning in to traditional broadcast television stations www.shutterstock.comNetflix will launch in Australia and New Zealand in March next year. Expectations are this is just the start of an influx of new streaming options in Australia. The internet and television are increasingly intertwined. It is expected that 30% of televisions globally will be connected to the internet by 2018. In Australia, this figure was surpassed last year with a third of Australians already using a television with internet capability. However, people are also increasingly tuning in to…
  • China's 'white gold' infant formula rush comes at a public health cost

    Karleen Gribble, Adjunct Research Fellow, School of Nursing at University of Western Sydney
    20 Nov 2014 | 11:26 am
    Sales of infant formula are booming in China, attracting investment from new quarters. Shen Xiang/EPA/AAPAlongside this week’s announcement of a free trade deal between China and Australia came reports of Gina Rinehart’s investment in a Queensland dairy operation to supply infant formula to China. Australia’s richest woman built her fortune on iron ore, but Rinehart’s A$500 million investment makes her a major player in Australian milk formula exports. Infant formula sales in China have increased more than ten-fold over the last decade and will double again in the next three years,…
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    SurvivalBlog.com

  • Notes for Friday – November 21, 2014

    Hugh James Latimer
    20 Nov 2014 | 9:21 pm
    We are coming up on the end of Round 55 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. Get your submission in soon! o o o Today, we present another entry for Round 55 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The $12,000+ worth of prizes for this round include: First Prize: A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course (a $1,195 value), A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day…
  • Four Exercises To Stay In Shape While Holed Up, by Zac T.

    Hugh James Latimer
    20 Nov 2014 | 9:21 pm
    As a brief introduction about me, aside from being an MPH student, I am an exercise physiologist and personal trainer. When I am not correcting peoples’ form and working in cardiac rehab, I spend my spare time backpacking, lifting weights, and reading economics books. Let’s say that you were a prepper. I say “were” because, for the point of this article, The Big Event has already happened, and now you’re not so much prepping as you are surviving. You stockpiled food, medicine, water, and ammunition. You read all the books. You built a secret retreat. Now there’s not much for you…
  • Letter Re: Christianity and Family Defense

    Hugh James Latimer
    20 Nov 2014 | 9:20 pm
    Hello Mr. Latimer, I have been engaged in a lot of discussions lately about gun rights, and I have noticed that many of my more liberal friends who still identify as Christian always bring up the “turn the other cheek” verse from Scripture to defend their anti-gun stance. Instinctively I know I have a moral obligation to defend my children against attackers with whatever force necessary, but I’d love to have cogent scriptural exegesis on this issue at my fingertips. Do you know of a good resource for me to study? I appreciate your help! – M.E. Hugh Responds: Perhaps…
  • Economics and Investing:

    Hugh James Latimer
    20 Nov 2014 | 9:19 pm
    Ukraine Admits Its Gold Is Gone: “There Is Almost No Gold Left In The Central Bank Vault” o o o Serfdom is the New Normal ~ Gus Demos & Michael Krieger . – W.L. o o o Items from Mr. Econocobas: Obama’s Secret Treaty Would Be The Most Important Step Toward A One World Economic System As Ruble Falls Even Teeth Cost Too Much to Fix As Debt Piles Up, Japan Tries to Lock in Low Borrowing Costs
  • Odds ‘n Sods:

    Hugh James Latimer
    20 Nov 2014 | 9:19 pm
    County board arrested by citizens and sheriff- Mike Williamson, SurvivalBlog Editor At Large o o o Understanding How Your Blood Reacts To Cold Is A Lifesaver. – H.L. o o o Mayor Slay: ‘Disruption’ Will be Allowed in St. Louis. – T.P. o o o NSA Director: China can damage US power grid. – B.S. o o o 21 Facts That Prove That Government Dependence Is Out Of Control In America. – P.S.
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    Trading Heroes

  • Weekly Related Markets Update – Rising Dollar Edition

    Hugh Kimura
    17 Nov 2014 | 3:43 am
    This week, I take a look at Russia's influence on gold, why Bitcoin is not worth one million dollars and where oil can go from here. I would be interested to hear your thoughts also, so let me know your opinions on these markets. The post Weekly Related Markets Update – Rising Dollar Edition appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • Urban Forex CCI Divergence Breakout Strategy Testing Setup

    Hugh Kimura
    13 Nov 2014 | 7:19 pm
    This post will show you how to test a trading method that is publicly available on another Forex trading site. I do not know if it works or not, but I want to document the process of testing, examining and attempting to improve it. This is the first part of the series. The post Urban Forex CCI Divergence Breakout Strategy Testing Setup appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • Weekly Related Markets Update – Bouncing Gold Edition

    Hugh Kimura
    9 Nov 2014 | 11:07 pm
    This week's related markets update features oil near three year lows and gold doing a hard bounce. Is it a dead cat bounce or the real thing? Also see the break out on the US Dollar Index and why I think Bitcoin is in a no-man's land. The post Weekly Related Markets Update – Bouncing Gold Edition appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • 18 Reasons Why Forex Trader Is The Best Job Ever

    Hugh Kimura
    6 Nov 2014 | 4:57 pm
    Trading is hard. Sometimes we can lose sight of why we want to be successful traders in the first place. Here are 18 reasons why I think that being a Forex trader is the best job in the world. Read this list every time you are tempted to give up. It always helps me. The post 18 Reasons Why Forex Trader Is The Best Job Ever appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • Weekly Related Markets Update – Dropping Bitcoin Edition

    Hugh Kimura
    3 Nov 2014 | 1:44 am
    Markets like oil, gold and the stock market can affect the price of currencies. This weekly update will get you up to speed on what is happening in these markets and how they can affect your trading this week. These markets don't always affect currencies, but you need to be aware of them. The post Weekly Related Markets Update – Dropping Bitcoin Edition appeared first on Trading Heroes.
 
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    OpenMarkets

  • MARKET UPDATE: WINDS IN THE SAILS OF EQUITIES

    OpenMarkets
    21 Nov 2014 | 1:38 pm
    Jack told us that this week would be all about the central banks and he appears to be correct.  To recap: in Japan we saw Abenomics take hold and a pushing out of the sales tax while  dissolving the lower house of parliament.  Fed minutes gave us some constructive feedback, telling us our economy is growing.  And today we saw a couple of surprises, such as quantitative easing seeming to become a reality in Europe and the Chinese Central Banks cutting their rates.
  • FX VOLATILITY AND CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE

    Blu Putnam
    21 Nov 2014 | 10:44 am
    With former French President Nicholas Sarkozy, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, and former head of the Bank of England Mervin King on the program at CME’s Global Financial Leadership Conference on Monday, 17 November, there was considerable discussion among all the participants about divergences among central bank policies.  While these were off-the-record sessions, the divergent paths taken by the major central banks are clearly driving some new patterns in the foreign exchange markets. Our own view is that while the depth and suddenness of the 2008 financial panic caught…
  • 50 Years of Live Cattle

    Tom Clark
    20 Nov 2014 | 6:00 am
      Today’s futures markets are places where participants trade all kinds of commodity and financial derivatives, from oil and gold to foreign exchange and interest rates. But before the 1960s, futures markets were solely places to trade grain, produce or dairy products like butter and eggs (CME began as the Chicago Butter and Egg Board). One of the great innovations in commodity markets happened in 1964 when CME’s  Live Cattle contract was introduced as a way to help cattle producers manage risk the same way grain producers had been doing for 100 years. The contract opened…
  • MARKET UPDATE: FED MINUTES

    OpenMarkets
    19 Nov 2014 | 1:31 pm
    Today is all about the Fed minutes.  Jack tells us that there is some argument about the inflation target and the actual written wording itself.  Another standout in these minutes is that Yellen stated the slowdown around the world is not affecting our economy.  This would create an expansion of the economy which would create an inverse relationship between interest rates and equities.  Earlier this week we saw the Japanese Central Banks take  action by dissolving the lower house of parliament, putting off an kind of tax hike.  This pushed the Yen down but also pushed back Abenomics at…
  • Systemic Risk to Markets Includes Cyber Security

    Evan Peterson
    19 Nov 2014 | 11:00 am
      Moderator Gillian Tett of the Financial Times kicked off a panel on systemic risk to the financial system with a question: Are we safer today than before the financial crisis? Among those she was asking were three leading voices in academia, government and the private sector. Andrew Lo, Director of the Financial Engineering Lab at MIT said it’s too soon to tell because we lack a measure of comprehensive financial risk. Jamil Nazarali of Citadel said the system is safer because over-the-counter clearing of derivatives has been implemented, and Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve…
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    eWallstreeter

  • Women in Economics

    21 Nov 2014 | 1:46 pm
    Noah Smith: ... Why is it that the sciences look like a feminist nirvana compared with the economics profession, which seems to have a built-in bias that prevents women from advancing? ... More here.
  • Reply From Pettis on Spain; Prisoner's Dilemma in Reverse; EMU End Game

    21 Nov 2014 | 12:33 pm
    In response to Spain Needs to Debate Leaving the Euro; Tooth Fairy Economics I received a nice email from Michael Pettis confirming my translation was correct. He also attached the original article in English.Michael Writes ...Thank's Mish. I am attaching the original, but the translations you got were basically right and covered the main points, which you understand anyway. Excessive debt impedes growth, and very few sovereign debt crises in history have been resolved by growthThe only other wa
  • Reich Is Wrong Again

    21 Nov 2014 | 12:07 pm
    (Don Boudreaux) Here’s a letter to the Baltimore Sun: Misleading language, faulty economics, and failures to connect the dots saturate Robert Reich’s essay “The growing wealth and clout of the richest .01 percent” (Nov. 21). He misleads by writing that “the richest one-hundredth of one percent of Americans now hold more than 11 percent of the nation’s total [...]
  • On Obama’s Immigration Executive Order

    21 Nov 2014 | 10:53 am
    (Don Boudreaux) Ilya Somin, a brilliant GMU colleague of mine from over in the law school, has a deep take on Obama’s much-talked-about executive order on immigration.  A slice: Finally, it is worth noting that the the immigration laws covered by the president’s executive order may go against the original meaning of the Constitution. Under the original [...]
  • 'People Who Wanted Market-Driven Health Care Now Have It'

    21 Nov 2014 | 10:51 am
    Alice Rivlin: People Who Wanted Market-Driven Health Care Now Have it in the Affordable Care Act, by Alice M. Rivlin, Brookings: ... The United States ... relied primarily on employer-based health insurance, generously favored by tax laws. ... But there...
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    The Last Embassy

  • ACA/Obamacare: Spending Figures Released on the Medicaid Component of Obamacare

    W.E. Heasley
    21 Nov 2014 | 2:11 am
    ‘WASHINGTON (Reuters) - One part of the Affordable Care Act is going according to plan, with U.S. states receiving and spending more money on the Medicaid health insurance program, a report released by the National Association of State Budget Officers on Thursday showed.’ ‘"The large increase in federal funds to states in fiscal 2014 was almost solely due to additional Medicaid dollars,
  • ACA/Obamacare: Revisiting Interstate Commerce and Buying Health Insurance Across State Lines

    W.E. Heasley
    20 Nov 2014 | 3:29 am
    “The second open enrollment period for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act is underway, and the law is more unpopular than ever. According to Gallup, a record-high 56 percent of Americans now disapprove of the 2010 law.” “Republicans in Congress — less inclined than some deep thinkers to sneer at "the stupidity of the American people" — unanimously opposed the Affordable Care Act
  • ACA/Obamacare: To Gruber Or Not To Gruber, That is the Question…..

    W.E. Heasley
    19 Nov 2014 | 2:14 am
    “Grubergate: The lies are getting pretty thick these days. The president claims that he never misled anyone about ObamaCare and that Jonathan Gruber was just "some adviser." In fact, Gruber was a key player in the deception. When Fox News' Ed Henry asked Obama on Sunday if he'd misled the American people "in order to get the bill passed," Obama's answer was "No, I did not." Space prohibits
  • ACA/Obamacare: ACA is Creating More or Less Relative Health-Care Cost Savings? Answer: Less.

    W.E. Heasley
    17 Nov 2014 | 3:12 am
    "1) Slower growth in health care costs is reducing the projected cost of the ACA’s coverage expansion (good). On this, we have the numbers: CBO provides them. For example, in 2012 CBO had projected that by 2021, the gross cost of these coverage provisions would be $242 billion annually. By 2014, however, CBO had lowered that estimate for 2021 to $208 billion. 2) Slower growth in health care
  • ACA/Obamacare: And Then There Is Jonathan Gruber

    W.E. Heasley
    16 Nov 2014 | 2:07 am
    ‘WASHINGTON — Three years ago, as President Obama fought for re-election, his team was more than happy to have Jonathan Gruber, a well-known Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor, mouthing off. Mr. Gruber, a health care expert who helped develop Mitt Romney’s health care plan in Massachusetts and later was a consultant for Mr. Obama’s Affordable Care Act, was no stranger to the
 
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    Columbia Business School: Ideas At Work RSS

  • Is Your Team Too Talented?

    30 Oct 2014 | 7:40 am
    Too much talent — on the court or in the office — can drive down team performance, new research shows.
  • Want to Grow Your Retirement Savings? Then Forget About It.

    23 Oct 2014 | 1:01 pm
    New research shows that the less frequently investors check their portfolios, the better off they are.
  • Low Rates, Big Spending?

    15 Oct 2014 | 10:37 am
    Six years after the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve and other central banks are still looking for answers to whether the unconventional monetary policies adopted following the crisis — including lowered interest rates — have been effective in helping American households and the larger economy. The persistence of so many debt-burdened households, widespread unemployment, and relatively low economic growth has only increased the debate among economists and policymakers.
  • Do Rate Cuts Matter?

    9 Oct 2014 | 10:15 am
    New research takes on the question of how much monetary policy affects the economy.
  • Converging on Startup Success

    7 Oct 2014 | 7:07 am
    In conversation, Damon Phillips and Evan Rawley discuss why entrepreneurship resists easy study and how their research is tackling some of the biggest questions in the field.
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    FTMDaily.com

  • How to Create a Simple Website Using WordPress

    Jerry Robinson
    21 Nov 2014 | 9:27 am
    Just added to the FTM Income University! Watch this brand new 23 video series on how to begin creating your own Wordpress website. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • How to Make Money With Google Adsense (Subscriber-Only Video)

    Jerry Robinson
    21 Nov 2014 | 8:18 am
    Jerry Robinson explains how he has used Google Adsense to make money over the past decade (and how you can too). Plus, Jerry reveals his favorite new investment idea for the end of 2014! [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • Gold Prices Climb As Supply Problems Grow

    Tom Cloud
    20 Nov 2014 | 11:13 am
    Gold prices soared $50 last Friday just as supply problems began to escalate. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • On Faith and Family: A Conversation With Dr. Ron Paul

    Jerry Robinson
    18 Nov 2014 | 10:56 am
    On this week's show, economist Jerry Robinson discusses faith, family, and America's future with former U.S. Congressman Ron Paul. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • Here are the Five Fastest-Growing Sectors of the Economy Right Now

    Jay Peroni
    15 Nov 2014 | 5:50 am
    Jay Peroni, CFP, discusses America's retirement situation and gives the five fastest-growing sectors of the economy, along with 12 stocks well-positioned for potential gains. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
 
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    Exchange Rates UK - Currency News

  • Pound to Euro Rate Today: GBP/EUR Firms on Exchange Rate Markets

    Adam Solomon
    21 Nov 2014 | 7:00 am
    Our currency analyst brings you the latest report on the Pound Sterling (currency:GBP) The Pound was able to sustain a steadier tone on Thursday and has gradually undertaken a firmer footing through the course of the week. Euro Rates Today: Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) Exchange Rate Today The latest UK retail sales data... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Pound Sterling to Dollar (GBP/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast: Cable Falls

    Tony Redondo
    21 Nov 2014 | 7:00 am
    The Pound to Dollar rate continues to trade in the foreign exchange market yesterday close to the 14 month low registered earlier this week. Indeed, the trend seen in the market since July, that of a faltering UK economic recovery, rise in UK political instability and a central bank keeping monetary policy loose is in ever starker... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • NZ Dollar to Australian Dollar & Euro Exchange Rates Climb, NZD GBP Softens on UK Retail Sales

    Colin Lawrence
    20 Nov 2014 | 1:00 pm
    The New Zealand dollar exchange rate news, analysis and live inter-bank conversion rates. The New Zealand Dollar has been trending higher versus the Euro (NZD/EUR) and Australian Dollar (NZD/AUD) whilst softening against the Pound (NZD/GBP) after the UK’s strong Retail Sales figures. Forecasts had suggested that UK Retail Sales may... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Exchange Rates Today - Pound to Rand (ZAR), Norwegian Krone (NOK), Swedish Krona (SEK) and Danish Krone (DKK)

    Colin Lawrence
    20 Nov 2014 | 1:00 pm
    Today's foreign exchange rate forecasts and currency news for the Pound Sterling (currency:GBP) to Rand (currency:ZAR), Swedish Krona (currency:SEK), Norwegian Krone (currency:NOK) and Danish Krone (currency:DKK) conversion rates today. Before we bring you the latest analysis, forecasts and predictions for these currencies, let's look at... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Pound Sterling to Euro & Dollar: GBP/EUR Climbs after PMI, GBP/USD Firm Ahead of Inflation Data

    Colin Lawrence
    20 Nov 2014 | 12:30 pm
    Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) Exchange Rate Benefits from British Sales Gain After advancing following the publication of more hawkish than expected policy meeting minutes from the Bank of England (BoE), the Pound Euro rate continued trending around the 1.25 level on Thursday. Although bets that the BoE will still hold off... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
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    BusinessClimate.com Blog

  • Talent Trajectory: Graduates Seeking Culturally Cool, Affordable Cities

    Emily McMackin
    21 Nov 2014 | 6:00 am
    Young, college-educated graduates have a definite path they are following after graduation – one that no longer automatically leads in the direction of mega-cities like New York, Chicago, San Francisco and Atlanta. Instead that path is taking them to more spacious, affordable metros like Houston, Nashville, Denver, Austin and Portland – cities with growing urban centers, culturally cool offerings, and jobs and amenities coveted by Millennials. According to a new report released by City Observatory, an urban policy think tank supported by the Knight Foundation, more graduates are moving…
  • Energy, Technology Driving Economic Recovery, GDP Growth Nationally

    Emily McMackin
    13 Nov 2014 | 6:00 am
    The road to economic recovery has been a long one for many cities across the U.S. since the Great Recession ended. Just a handful of regions have experienced full recovery, and many of the nation’s largest cities are still reeling from fiscal turmoil that has forced permanent cuts in public services. Despite the obstacles, some cities have come back stronger since the Recession — and many of these are speeding ahead of others in income and GDP growth. What’s their secret? Economic growth in these metros are fueled by two common factors: energy and technology. In a NewGeography…
  • Trends in Economic Development: Texas, Talent and More

    Bill McMeekin
    5 Nov 2014 | 3:30 am
    The BusinessClimate.com blog celebrated a birthday last month. Now that we’ve blown out the candles and put the party hats back in the closet, we reflect on some trends in economic development that have emerged since we launched this blog. 1) This is the Texas Decade. There aren’t many industry sectors in which the Lone Star State has not developed a critical mass. It has long been an energy capital, but it has added an impressive renewal energy sector to its portfolio along with aerospace and aviation, life sciences, information technology and advanced manufacturing segments…
  • Airports and Site Location: New Lift for HQs

    Bill McMeekin
    29 Oct 2014 | 3:30 am
    How ’bout them airports? In the age of the global economy, airports and site location go together like a tray table locked in the upright position. Proximity to a major airport, especially one that offers international service, has become one of the key metrics in a location decision for a headquarters. A hub airport, same-day turnaround abilities and the number of direct flights to key destinations can tilt a location decision. It certainly matters to the major corporations. Some 40 percent of Fortune 500 headquarters are in range of one of the 10 busiest airports in the U.S. When…
  • Placemaking: Investing to Draw and Keep Talent

    Bill McMeekin
    22 Oct 2014 | 12:51 pm
    Livability and talent recruitment have become the conjoined twins of economic development. If you want to have a puncher’s chance of drawing talent to your community, you need to encourage creation of the environment that appeals to them. This  conscious effort at placemaking  is both a talent recruitment and business recruitment strategy. Quality of place attributes are integral to attracting and keeping talent, and a deep pool of talent will be a key selling point for bringing new investment to a community. And it is not the sole province of large cities with developed urban cores…
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    The Conscience Blog

  • Great Read

    Iyobosa
    17 Nov 2014 | 12:35 am
    Hello world. Today’s read is from long time Daily Telegraph columnist Liam Halligan. Halligan has accurately pointed to flaws in the current economic revival attempt and has pointed the finger at the current recovery effort in its unfortunate failures to lead to genuine economic growth. In the coming weeks I’ll be discussing the economic effort as we approach the next election in 2015. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11233155/Recovery-The-UKs-economic-revival-is-far-from-secure.html
  • Scottish Independence: Be Careful What You Wish For

    Iyobosa
    18 Sep 2014 | 2:48 am
    Scottish not British This is a special piece about the SNP’s attempts for a Currency Union with the rest of the UK. It is flawed and the implications could be drastic. All patriotic rhetoric aside, the Scottish people should be careful of what they wish for. Without question the potential breakup of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is a monumental and truly unique event. The Scottish people have been granted their request for the right as Scots to self-determination. This would result in much greater powers shifting away from Westminster and into the Scottish…
  • Tricky Situation

    Iyobosa
    17 May 2014 | 2:41 am
    Government’s current stance with regards to the potential Pfizer takeover of AstraZeneca sends mixed messages about UK recovery.  Chairman & CEO Ian Read David Cameron’s stance with regards to Pfizer’s potential takeover of AstraZeneca is somewhat peculiar. Research & Development especially in the Science industry signals innovation, persistence and longevity. Therefore the employment associated to the Science industry appears to be the kind that the UK economy desperately requires in order to aid the fragile recovery. The anomaly comes as a surprise because both the Prime…
  • Great Read

    Iyobosa
    11 May 2014 | 6:00 am
    Hello World. Liam Halligan has a reputation as a straight-talking, logical and insightful journalist and this piece is no different. In his piece in The Telegraph Halligan discusses the present banking system in place in the UK and more specifically highlights the link between Investment and retail divisions. He goes on to explain and clarify that only complete separation will ensure catastrophic government bail-outs will not occur in the future, which could potentially save taxpayers billions. I’ve touched on this issue here.  …
  • Great Read

    Iyobosa
    27 Jan 2014 | 10:59 am
    Hello world. This is a post from the fantastic Systemic Disorder blog. It relates to my previous feature, where I detail the changing London landscape. The piece featured highlights some of the synonymous traits parts of New York City have undergone as a result of gentrification. http://systemicdisorder.wordpress.com/2012/08/08/the-corporate-steamroller-of-gentrification-is-a-deliberate-process/
 
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    Latest blog entries

  • 7 Red Letter Dates in the Ebola Pandemic

    1 Nov 2014 | 3:05 pm
    By all indications, the Ebola epidemic in West Africa continues to spread exponentially, that is to say that the rate of infection is increasing at an ever-increasing rate. According to the WHO, possibly 40,000 cases are present in West Africa, while projecting from past data says the number is around 25,000. Using the latter model, these seven signposts for the epidemic were established.   The purpose of this article is to provide a benchmark to evaluate the progress of the disease as it progresses. As these dates pass, readers will be able to evaluate whether conditions are continuing…
  • Don't Fear the Robots: Automation is a Good Thing

    19 Oct 2014 | 2:57 pm
    Uncreative minds are at it again, riding that ancient saw telling us innovation will put us all permanently out of a job. Admittedly, automation and innovation will eliminate certain jobs, and at times it can appear hopeless, but the computer revolution is but the fart of a gnat when compared to the industrial revolution. We've weathered far more drastic revolutions of labor and capital in the past, for the better, and this time isn't different. In the 1700's, a group of people called Luddites, decided that the power loom was the very end of their livelihood, and that the best course of…
  • Ebola Coming to Europe Next

    23 Sep 2014 | 7:00 pm
    Even as I write, a ship is steaming directly to Amsterdam from the hot zone of the worst Ebola epidemic of all time. It's an ordinary cargo ship, and in a week or two, its crew will be downing beers and visiting the local talent of one of Europe's biggest port cities. The worst part is, it's not the only one. A flotilla of cargo ships leave from Europe each month to visit a variety of West African ports. The last of these ports, terrifyingly, are in each of the Ebola-stricken countries. As if it were perfectly intentional, these ships return straight away to Hamburg or Amsterdam for more…
  • Vladmir Putin: King of the Trashtalkers

    20 Sep 2014 | 2:35 pm
    I'm pretty down on government officials, elected or otherwise, I make no secret of it. But, I do love to watch a good game, and I can appreciate a master when I see one. While Vladimir Putin is a despot extraordinaire, he is awfully good at what he does. Truth be told, Michael Jordan wasn't paid millions in sponsorships and salary because he could put a ball through a net. He was paid his megamillions because he was fun to watch. If he put people to sleep while playing, no one would know his name. It was his miraculous dunks, his whirling fakeouts and electrifying play that made him a star.
  • Just Wars are Easy to Explain

    7 Sep 2014 | 6:58 pm
    A just war, or a morally justifiable war, should look like a morally (and legally) justifiable killing. The reasoning behind a just war should be quick to explain, with an obvious motive like self defense. It should be nearly impossible to find fault with a just war. By comparison, the longwinded articles that I'm reading on the Wall Street Journal reference Neville Chamberlain, Henry Kissinger, soft power, appeasement and isolationism while trying, and trying hard, to get people to sign the dotted line for another war. It got me to wondering: because the pro-war articles are long, is that…
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    FT Alphaville

  • The economic effects of the Obama immigration order

    Cardiff Garcia
    21 Nov 2014 | 3:22 pm
    The first thing to be said about the macroeconomic impact of Obama’s executive order on immigration is that it will be small but not trivial. The second thing to be said is that although the impact will be small, it will also be positive.Continue reading: The economic effects of the Obama immigration order
  • Private money vs totally-public money, plus some history

    Izabella Kaminska
    21 Nov 2014 | 12:10 pm
    Let’s close the week off with little bit of “history is just repeating itself” education for both the champions of private cryptocurrency, unaware of the private origins of evil fiat currency, and the “take away the banks’ power to create money!” Positive Money campaign in light of the recent deluge of historically myopic press releases in our inbox. As the BoE’s historical timeline helpfully points out, the BoE came into being when a private syndicate decided to risk all in 1688 by providing the UK government with funding when no-one else was…
  • Halliburton: good things come to those who wait

    Ed Hammond
    21 Nov 2014 | 11:00 am
    Apparently, Halliburton’s $34.6bn acquisition of Baker Hughes was a blundered — and costly — deal by the oil services company. The business press (the FT included) have been brutal in their assessment. My colleagues on Lex, with characteristic subtlety, rebuked Halliburton for creating a bad acquirer template. Others simply said the price, which represented a 54 per cent premium, was too high. The smack-down seemed to top out on Wednesday, when the Wall Street Journal declared Halliburton’s as the worst received deal of the year.Continue reading: Halliburton: good things come…
  • No-one ever expects the PBOC

    Izabella Kaminska
    21 Nov 2014 | 4:36 am
    The People’s Bank of China likes to act unexpectedly. And Friday’s surprise announcement of a Chinese rate cut only confirms that being unexpected is indeed the PBOC’s preferred communications strategy. As Reuters noted, this is the first Chinese rate cut in two years and lowers the benchmark lending rate by 40 basis points to 5.6 per cent. One-year benchmark deposit rates were lowered by a smaller 25 basis points. But, as Marc Ostwald at ADM Investor Services International commented in an email, the timing of this move looks to be as much about the sharp appreciation of the…
  • The liquidity monster that awaits

    Izabella Kaminska
    21 Nov 2014 | 3:53 am
    Fears are growing that the next crisis, if it should manifest, won’t come from any of the areas that spawned the 2008 crisis. To the contrary, it will emerge from areas we’ve not really had to worry about to date. The key areas those in high places are now worrying about: the taken-for-granted presumed liquidity of the system. This is an easy assumption for the asset management industry to make. For years investment banks have made a business of carrying liquidity risk on their balance sheets, mainly by internalising the inventory nobody else is prepared to hold. This sort of…
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    Marginal REVOLUTION

  • The Great Zynga Reset

    Tyler Cowen
    21 Nov 2014 | 11:03 am
    At companies where pampering employees has always been part of the culture, it is hard to stop if business turns sour. Zynga Inc. shares have fallen more than 80% since 2012 as the game maker struggles to find a follow-up hit to “Farmville.” Before going public in 2011, Zynga began serving lunch and dinner daily to its employees, using specialty ingredients like Japanese Kewpie mayonnaise and pinecone syrup. A spokeswoman for Zynga, based in San Francisco, says the company ended free haircuts for employees earlier this year. She declined to comment further. As perks get bigger and better,…
  • Assorted links

    Tyler Cowen
    21 Nov 2014 | 8:48 am
    1. What Larry Summers is thankful for.  And Larry Summers reviews Too Big To Jail, an important book in his view. 2. Trying to predict the Supreme Court. 3. More evidence for The Great Factor Price Equalization. 4. The importance of Great Medieval Thinkers. 5. The liquidity monster that awaits. 6. The Karl Marx credit card.
  • Deirdre McCloskey has a 55-page review essay on Piketty

    Tyler Cowen
    21 Nov 2014 | 12:09 am
    You will find it here (pdf), forthcoming in the Erasmus Journal of Philosophy and Economics. For the pointer I thank Ray Lopez, who in turn drew upon Patrick R. Sullivan, a commentator at The Money Illusion.
  • Human-dolphin fishing cooperatives

    Tyler Cowen
    20 Nov 2014 | 11:37 pm
    1. They have been reported to exist in Australia, India, Mauritania, Burma, and the Mediterranean, but the best known are in Brazil. 2. In parts of southern Brazil, human fisherman have been cooperating with dolphins for many generations (of each species). 3. If fishermen clap just the right way, dolphins will herd fish into the desired areas of fishermen, in muddy lagoon areas. 4. The dolphins perform a distinctive kind of dive to signal to the humans it is time to cast the net for the fish. 5. Only some individual dolphins are able (willing?) to do this well, perhaps the others belong to…
  • What I’ve been reading

    Tyler Cowen
    20 Nov 2014 | 10:55 pm
    1. Daniel Schreiber, Susan Sontag: A Biography.  I never tire reading about her, or reading her, for that matter. 2. Richard Bernstein, China 1945: Mao’s Revolution and America’s Fateful Choice.  A very good book on how the Americans had a decent relationship with the Chinese Communists in 1945 and how rapidly that fell apart and why. 3. Paul Vigna and Michael J. Casey, The Age of Cryptocurrency: How Bitcoin and Digital Money are Challenging the Global Economic Order.  A good and useful introduction to the beliefs of those who believe in the subtitle being true. 4. Michael Pye,…
 
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    Zero Hedge

  • Everything You Need to Know About The Swiss Gold Referendum

    Tyler Durden
    21 Nov 2014 | 4:35 pm
    On November 30, Swiss nationals head to the polls on three separate issues: abolishing a flat tax on resident, non-working foreigners, an immigration cap, and a proposal on Swiss gold reserves. As Visual Capitalist notes, the one we are most interested in is the latter section of the ballot, and today’s infographic sums up everything you need to know about the upcoming Swiss gold referendum. The referendum, if passed, will mean that (1) The Swiss National Bank must hold 20% of all assets as gold, (2) Switzerland will repatriate the 30% of their gold held abroad by England and Canada, and…
  • "We Are Living In An Aberrational World"

    Tyler Durden
    21 Nov 2014 | 4:05 pm
    Originally posted at Finanz und Wirtschaft, The editor of the influential investment newsletter 'The High-Tech Strategist' warns of trouble in semiconductor stocks and spots bright investment opportunities in gold miners. It’s unchartered territory: For the first time since more than half a decade the global financial markets are supposed to live without the constant liquidity infusions of the Federal Reserve. Fred Hickey, the outspoken editor of the widely-read investing newsletter 'The High-Tech Strategist', says this won’t work well for long. "By the end of…
  • You’ve Been in This Business Too Long If...

    Tyler Durden
    21 Nov 2014 | 3:27 pm
    Via ConvergEx's Nick Colas, Today we offer up a (hopefully) humorous note about the perils of a career in finance.  It’s not really the day to day chores that take a toll, after all – it is how this business pervades the rest of your life.  Over the years, your personal and professional decision making and communication skill sets merge into one, and it is the cold rationality of the latter that usually swallows the former.  And then lets out a large burp.  So if you’ve ever wondered what the stop-loss should be on a romantic relationship gone bad, or considered your…
  • In Preparation For Tonight's Ferguson Decision

    Tyler Durden
    21 Nov 2014 | 2:53 pm
    As America holds its breath for tonight's (expected) grand jury verdict over the shooting of 18-year-old Michael Brown - by police officer Darren Wilson on August 9th - Missouri officials have said they have reached an understanding with protest leaders, as NY Times reports, on the conduct of demonstrations expected after the decision whether to indict Wilson or not comes down. Despite this 'understanding' it is clear that law-enforcement is 'prepared'... *ST. LOUIS MAYOR FRANCIS SLAY SPEAKS AT FERGUSON PRESS CONF. *SLAY: NEED TO PLAN FOR FERGUSON PROTESTS REGARDLESS OF OUTCOME  *SLAY:…
  • What Record Stock Buybacks Say About Economic Growth

    Tyler Durden
    21 Nov 2014 | 2:30 pm
    For all the obfuscation surrounding the topic of stock buybacks and corporations returning record amounts of cash to their shareholders, the bottom line is as simple as it gets. This is what you are taught in CFO 101 class: if you see organic growth opportunities for your business, or if you want to maintain the asset quality generating your cash flows, you invest in (either maintenance or growth) capex. if there are no such opportunities, you return cash to investors (or, maybe spend a little on M&A unless you are Valeant in which case you spend everything and then much more). That's it.
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    nextnewdeal.net

  • Leadership Wanted: Governor Cuomo, Homeless Students Need College Support

    rgoldfarb
    20 Nov 2014 | 4:51 am
    For homeless youth to make it through college, they need extra support, best provided through a government program of homeless liaisons. New York has been among the top 10 states with unaccompanied homeless youth (UHY) filing for federal financial aid for the last three years. In a private report to the National Association for the Education of Homeless Children and Youth, the United States Department of Education, reports that there were 2,215 college students applying for financial aid in New York who indicated on their Free Application for Federal Student Aid that they were homeless last…
  • A Dem Who Can Explain that Fairness is Prosperity Will Sweep in 2016

    rgoldfarb
    19 Nov 2014 | 12:26 pm
    The policies that will deliver economic growth also center fairness, and that's what Democrats need to emphasize to keep the presidency in 2016. The familiar debate within the Democratic Party – move left or right – is on. In a memo to a “limited number of Democratic leaders,” Third Way, the leading organization for corporate Democrats, lays down the gauntlet: “Democrats are offering economic fairness, but voters want economic growth and prosperity.” And for good measure, Third Way declares, “And it has to be meaningful; Democrats can’t simply stick a 'growth' label on the old…
  • News Flash: Progressives Have a Winning Economic Narrative -- and Democrats Who Used It Won

    tprice
    11 Nov 2014 | 3:47 am
    Democrats can connect with voters by telling a story about how they'll make the economy work for all of us. The big post-election consensus is that Democrats believe, as The New York Times put it, they were missing “a broad economic message to enthuse supporters and convert some independents.” So what would that missing narrative be? The point of a narrative is to give people an explanation of what they are experiencing that includes what is wrong, who is responsible, and what we can do about it. Take a look at two explanations of what’s happening that are very similar but different in…
  • Expand Registration Efforts on Campus to Increase Youth Turnout

    rgoldfarb
    10 Nov 2014 | 11:15 am
    A little-known provision of the Higher Education Act which creates a federal obligation for colleges to help with voter registration could be a key for youth turnout efforts. After a disappointing election night, it’s time to start thinking about the effects of the collective decision our country has made. Despite the importance of Tuesday’s election for determining the direction of policy for the next two years and setting the tone for the 2016 presidential campaign, youth turnout was low – as it almost always is. Youth aged 18 to 29 made up only 13 percent of this year’s voting…
  • With This Political Scene, Millennial Turnout Isn't a Surprise

    rgoldfarb
    6 Nov 2014 | 9:07 am
    Millennials aren't engaged in the current model of partisan politics, but true networks of engagement would bring far more young people into the political fold. As pundits predicted (Nate Silver really has taken the drama out of election returns) the Republicans swept to a classic 6th year victory, winning senate and gubernatorial majorities on the backs of disillusionment with Obama and low turnout across the board. Also as predicted, young voters’ share of the electorate dropped: from 19 percent in 2012 to 13 percent this year. This pretty much mirrors the turnout in the last two midterm…
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    Jared Bernstein | On the Economy

  • A bit on the economics/politics of the President’s immigration action.

    Jared Bernstein
    21 Nov 2014 | 7:06 am
    Over at PostEverything.
  • When Minsky raises an eyebrow, I pay attention. So should you.

    Jared Bernstein
    19 Nov 2014 | 7:49 am
    The work of the late economist Hyman Minsky has become increasingly relevant in recent years, as his understanding of the fragility of financial markets and their role in bubbles and busts was both deep and prescient. Other economists generally viewed financial markets as playing not much more than an intermediary function, passively allocating excess savings to their most productive uses—in fact, many still see it that way. It’s one reason why virtually all business cycle modelers, including those at the Fed, didn’t see the great recession coming—their models either left out or…
  • In weak economies, monetary and fiscal policy are complements, not substitutes.

    Jared Bernstein
    19 Nov 2014 | 4:25 am
    Over at PostEverything.
  • How Much Does Immigration Increase Poverty? Less than Robert Samuelson Thinks it Does

    Jared Bernstein
    17 Nov 2014 | 12:22 pm
    It is a common mistake to overestimate the contribution of immigration to the increase in poverty. Today’s purveyor of this erroneous association is the WaPo’s Robert Samuelson, who writes in the context of a discussion about immigration reform: The influx of unskilled Hispanics has sharply boosted U.S. poverty. From 1990 to 2013, Hispanics accounted for 57 percent of the 11.7 million increase in the number of people below the poverty line. But of course, not all Hispanics are immigrants, and since he’s allegedly talking about the poverty implications of immigration reform, he should…
  • The unemployment rate at full employment is…

    Jared Bernstein
    14 Nov 2014 | 12:35 pm
    Who knows!? It’s lower than conventional estimates, but beyond that…over at the Upshot.
 
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    Freakonomics

  • The Man Who Would Be Everything: A New Freakonomics Radio Podcast

    Stephen J. Dubner
    20 Nov 2014 | 7:00 am
    Boris Johnson: mayor of London, raconteur, painter of old cheese boxes. You can call him Al. What is Boris Johnson? A better question might be: what isn’t Boris Johnson? He is, inter alia, the Mayor of London; a prolific author, journalist and, as of this month, a biographer of Winston Churchill; a once and possibly future Member of Parliament; a potential future Prime Minister himself despite being a “self-styled joke” who occasionally gets stuck on a zip-line; an American by birth (and U.S. passport holder). He is also, as you’ll hear in our latest Freakonomics…
  • The Man Who Would Be Everything Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    20 Nov 2014 | 6:55 am
    This is a transcript of the Freakonomics Radio podcast “The Man Who Would Be Everything” [MUSIC: Seks Bomba, “The Cat” (from Operation B.O.M.B.A. Stephen J. DUBNER: On this week’s episode, Boris Johnson drops by to chat about being: Mayor of London; a writer; a great admirer of — and now biographer of — Prime Minister Winston Churchill; a potential future prime minister himself; and, most singularly, he chats about just being Boris Johnson: Boris JOHNSON: I love… I love… old wooden tennis rackets. DUBNER: There are other old things he loves. JOHNSON: I…
  • Why Do People Keep Having Children? A New Freakonomics Radio Podcast

    Stephen J. Dubner
    13 Nov 2014 | 7:00 am
    (Photo: DVIDSHUB) What are the factors that make a given person more or less likely to have children? How important are income, education, and optimism about the future? Is it true that “development is the best contraceptive,” as demographers like to say? And is the global population really going to double by the next century? (Probably not — in fact, one U.N. estimate finds that the population in 2100 could be lower than today.) These are some of the questions we ask in this week’s episode, “Why Do People Keep Having Children?” (You can subscribe to the podcast at…
  • Why Do People Keep Having Children? Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    13 Nov 2014 | 6:55 am
    This is a transcript of the Freakonomics Radio podcast “Why Do People Keep Having Children?” [MUSIC: Madrona Music, “Stomp It”] EMILY OSTER: My name is Emily Oster, I’m an economist, I work at Brown University. DUBNER: Cool. Let me ask you this easy question, we’ll start. Why do people have kids, Emily? I mean biological imperative apart, unless it’s all the biological imperative. OSTER: I think this is probably an open question for debate. I think many people would tell you that it’s the biological imperative, I think that some people would tell you, you know, kids…
  • Good News For People Who Rely on Movie Reviews

    Stephen J. Dubner
    10 Nov 2014 | 7:37 am
    According to a new working paper by Stefano DellaVigna and Johannes Hermle, movie reviews aren’t biased by media ownership. The paper is called “Does Conflict of Interest Lead to Biased Coverage? Evidence from Movie Reviews.” Here’s the abstract: Media outlets are increasingly owned by conglomerates, inducing a conflict of interest:  a media outlet can bias its coverage to benefit companies in the same group.  We test for bias by examining movie reviews by media outlets owned by News Corp. — such as the Wall Street Journal — and by Time Warner —…
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    interfluidity

  • Some thoughts on QE

    Steve Randy Waldman
    2 Nov 2014 | 1:28 am
    “Quantitative Easing” — economics jargon for central banks issuing a fixed quantity of base money to buy some stuff — has been much in the news this week. On Wednesday, US Federal Reserve completed a gradual “taper” of its program to exchange new base money for US government and agency debt. Two days later, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly expanded its QE program, to the dramatic approval of equity markets. I have long been of two minds regarding QE. On the one hand, I think most of the developed world has fallen into a “hard money” trap, in which…
  • Rational regret

    Steve Randy Waldman
    28 Oct 2014 | 6:05 am
    Suppose that you have a career choice to make: There is a “safe bet” available to you, which will yield a discounted lifetime income of $1,000,000. Alternatively, there is a risky bet, which will yield a discounted lifetime income of $100,000,000 with 10% probability, or a $200,000 lifetime income with 90% probability. The expected value of Option 1 is $1,000,000. The expected value of Option 2 is (0.1 × $100,000,000) + (0.9 × $200,000) = $10,180,000. For a rational, risk-neutral agent, Option 2 is the right choice by a long-shot. A sufficiently risk-averse agent, of…
  • Econometrics, open science, and cryptocurrency

    Steve Randy Waldman
    17 Oct 2014 | 7:29 am
    Mark Thoma wrote the wisest two paragraphs you will read about econometrics and empirical statistical research in general: You are testing a theory you came up with, but the data are uncooperative and say you are wrong. But instead of accepting that, you tell yourself "My theory is right, I just haven't found the right econometric specification yet. I need to add variables, remove variables, take a log, add an interaction, square a term, do a different correction for misspecification, try a different sample period, etc., etc., etc." Then, after finally digging out that one…
  • Scale, progressivity, and socioeconomic cohesion

    Steve Randy Waldman
    11 Oct 2014 | 6:33 am
    Today seems to be the day to talk about whether those of us concerned with poverty and inequality should focus on progressive taxation. Edward D. Kleinbard in the New York Times and Cathie Jo Martin and Alexander Hertel-Fernandez at Vox argue that focusing on progressivity can be counterproductive. Jared Bernstein, Matt Bruenig, and Mike Konczal offer responses offer responses that examine what “progressivity” really means and offer support for taxing the rich more heavily than the poor. This is an intramural fight. All of these writers presume a shared goal of reducing inequality…
  • Links: UBI and hard money

    Steve Randy Waldman
    26 Sep 2014 | 6:33 am
    Max Sawicky offers a response to the post he inspired on the political economy of a universal basic income. See also a related post by Josh Mason, and a typically thoughtful thread by interfluidity‘s commenters. I’m going to use this post to make space for some links worth remembering, both on UBI and hard money (see two posts back). The selection will be arbitrary and eclectic with unforgivable omissions, things I happen to have encountered recently. Please feel encouraged to scold me for what I’ve missed in the comments. With UBI, I’m not including links to…
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    Credit Writedowns

  • Consumption taxes, inflation and low wage growth in Japan lead to recession

    Edward Harrison
    17 Nov 2014 | 5:13 am
    The following is an abbreviated version of a post from Credit Writedowns Pro from 7 Nov 2014 I caught a chart from a Martin Wolf missive that I thought was quite astonishing. This chart shows central bank assets relative to economic output making an absolutely hockey stick-style increase in Japan in the wake of Abenomics. I don’t know yet what exactly to make of this chart but I want to use this column to work out some of my thinking associated with it. My hope is to use this as fodder for a segment I want to do on the TV show I produce. The Martin Wolf message was as follows: So what…
  • Central banks, inflation, currency wars and the Japanese experiment

    Edward Harrison
    17 Nov 2014 | 5:02 am
    The following is an abbreviated version of a post from 31 Oct 2014 at Credit Writedowns Pro Coming on the heels of the US Federal Reserve’s announcement that it would stop expanding its balance sheet with large scale asset purchases, the Bank of Japan’s announcement was music to the ears of Japanese equities investors. And shares in Japan promptly rose 4.8% on the news. The larger question, however, is whether QE is effective either at shaping future inflation or inflation expectations or at increasing nominal and real GDP. The evidence is equivocal. And so Japan presents a unique…
  • Banks, Japanese trade, the currency wars and deflation

    Edward Harrison
    17 Nov 2014 | 4:55 am
    This is an abbreviated version of a post from Credit Writedowns from 22 Oct 2014 Banks. First, on the banking sector, one theme I have seen a lot regarding the lack of credit growth has to do with the increasingly onerous regulatory environment we live in being incompatible with prodigious credit growth. The documentation hurdles to getting a mortgage are higher now because banks are afraid that if they don’t document everything, they will be make themselves vulnerable to Fannie and Freddie being able to stick the banks with loans packaged into GSE paper if those mortgages go sour. We want…
  • Abenomics 2.0 – Just What Are They Trying To Achieve?

    Edward Hugh
    17 Nov 2014 | 4:49 am
    By Edward Hugh The recent move by the Bank of Japan to take further measures to accelerate the rate at which it ramps up its balance sheet took almost everyone – market watchers included – completely by surprise. The consequence was reasonably predictable – the yen has once more fallen strongly against almost all major currencies – and most notably against the USD – and Japan’s main stock indexes are sharply up. On the other side of the balance sheet the cost of imported goods – and especially energy – is expected to rise, real wages are likely to continue to fall, and ex-tax…
  • Zero rates, resource misallocation, and shale oil

    Edward Harrison
    10 Nov 2014 | 12:48 pm
    The following is an abbreviated excerpt of a post from 16 Oct from Credit Writedowns Pro The nexus of zero rates, resource misallocation, and risk on has favoured shale oil. But the drop in oil prices will call many of these projects into question precipitating a high yield energy funding crisis and a panic dash for the exits. There will be carnage and the question will be whether this carnage causes contagion into other markets. The catalyst for many market gyrations, as I predicted them in late September, is the global growth slowdown, especially in China. And the most important immediate…
 
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    Liberty Street Economics

  • Historical Echoes: Postage Stamps Portray Stories of American Banking History

    Blog Author
    21 Nov 2014 | 4:00 am
    Mary Tao Prior to 1876, there was fierce competition among engraving firms and private bank note companies for contracts to print U.S. Treasury bank notes. Then, in 1877, congressional legislation established the Bureau of Engraving and Printing (BEP) as the exclusive printer of U.S. government currency.      So, the engraving firms shifted their focus to another source of revenue—postage stamps. U.S. postage stamps from the 1860s to the 1890s were known as “bank notes” because they were printed by the National Bank Note Company (which held the contract from…
  • Introducing the SCE Credit Access Survey

    Blog Author
    20 Nov 2014 | 8:15 am
    Basit Zafar and Wilbert van der Klaauw Today, we are releasing new data on consumers’ experiences and expectations regarding credit demand. We’ve been collecting these data every four months since mid-2013, as part of our Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Other data sources describing consumer credit either provide aggregates that are an interaction of credit supply and demand (such as the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel), or show only short-term changes in supply and demand (as reported by the supply side in the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey), or are too infrequent to provide a…
  • The Long-Term Unemployed and the Wages of New Hires

    Blog Author
    19 Nov 2014 | 4:00 am
    Rob Dent, Samuel Kapon, Fatih Karahan, Benjamin W. Pugsley, and Ayşegül Sahin Third in a three-part series This is the third in a series of blog posts on the topic of measuring labor market slack. In this post, we assess the relationships between short- and long-term unemployment and wages by comparing the differences in states’ experiences over the business cycle. While all states felt the impact of the Great Recession, some fared better than others. Consequently, it is possible to use differences in the composition and shifts of short- and long-term unemployment to determine whether…
  • How Attached to the Labor Market Are the Long-Term Unemployed?

    Blog Author
    18 Nov 2014 | 4:00 am
    Rob Dent, Samuel Kapon, Fatih Karahan, Benjamin W. Pugsley, and Ayşegül Sahin Second in a three-part series In this second post in our series on measuring labor market slack, we analyze the labor market outcomes of long-term unemployed workers to assess their employability and labor force attachment. If long-term unemployed workers are essentially nonparticipants, their job-finding prospects and attachment to the labor force should resemble those of nonparticipants who are not looking for a job and should differ considerably from those of short-term unemployed workers. Using data that allow…
  • Measuring Labor Market Slack: Are the Long-Term Unemployed Different?

    Blog Author
    17 Nov 2014 | 4:00 am
    Rob Dent, Samuel Kapon, Fatih Karahan, Benjamin W. Pugsley, and Ayşegül Sahin First in a three-part series There has been some debate in the Liberty Street Economics blog and in other outlets, such as Krueger, Cramer, and Cho (2014) and Gordon (2013), about whether the short-term unemployment rate is a better measure of slack than the overall unemployment rate. As the chart below shows, the two measures are sending different signals, with the short-term unemployment rate back to its pre-recession level while the overall rate is still elevated because of a high long-term unemployment…
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    The Incidental Economist

  • Healthcare Triage News: The Stuff We Worry About, and the Stuff That Actually Kills Us

    Aaron Carroll
    21 Nov 2014 | 3:39 pm
    What are we worried about in terms of health? What’s really gonna kill us? How different is that from the past? All this and more on this week’s Healthcare Triage News. For those of you who want to read more, here you go: Ebola Ranks Among Americans’ Top Three Healthcare Concerns Survey: Americans are more worried about Ebola than actual leading causes of death The Burden of Disease and the Changing Task of Medicine @aaronecarroll
  • AcademyHealth: Doing more, even when it might not be good for patients

    Aaron Carroll
    21 Nov 2014 | 10:00 am
    I’ve written many times about how we overtreat in the US, potentially doing harm to patients. This is especially true when it comes to breast cancer. A recently published manuscript in JAMA Surgery highlights shows that things might be getting worse. Why? I discuss the paper, and some of its implications in my latest post over at AcademyHealth. Go read! @aaronecarroll
  • $2.6 Billion to Develop a Drug? New Estimate Makes Questionable Assumptions

    Aaron Carroll
    20 Nov 2014 | 8:00 am
    The following originally appeared on The Upshot (copyright 2014, The New York Times Company). The Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development has just released its newest estimate for the cost to develop and bring a drug to market. At $2.6 billion, this figure is bound to get a lot of attention. We should take this announcement with a grain of salt, however. While it is no doubt expensive to create a drug, such announcements have come under attack before, often with good reason. The Tufts Center is funded, to a large extent, by the pharmaceutical industry. It is in the pharmaceutical…
  • UPDATED: Is it time to rethink the antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines?

    Aaron Carroll
    20 Nov 2014 | 6:30 am
    Not too long ago, antibiotic prophylaxis would be given before various procedures, like going to the dentist to people at risk for infective endocarditis. This applied to people at both high and low risk. Full disclosure, I’m one of the people at low risk, and I used to have to take antibiotics before such things, and I had to take azithromycin (which hurts my belly) cause I’m allergic to penicillin, and it sucked. Sorry – had to vent. So, anyway, I was pleased when research changed the guideline for people at low risk, and I could stop taking the drug. And then Brad…
  • Taking care of patients goes beyond medicine and office visits

    Aaron Carroll
    20 Nov 2014 | 5:57 am
    There’s a passionate Perspectives in this week’s NEJM that’s worth a read. Charles van der Horst was recently arrested for protesting against his state’s refusal to expand Medicaid. He hits all the high notes of what that decision means for the citizens of his state, and the patients he cares for. I’d like to highlight this paragraph: By willfully rejecting a Medicaid expansion to thousands of hardworking North Carolina families, our state government was consigning these citizens to the same fate as many patients I’ve cared for during research and service…
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    LewRockwell

  • Top 5 Survival Knives

    No Author
    20 Nov 2014 | 10:01 pm
    Idaho --(Ammoland.com)- I’m not a survivalist per sae. I mean I’ve lived this long and survived but I don’t live off the land for months at a time and sneak in at night and slit the throats of my commie enemies. But still, it doesn’t take much imagination to be able to envision what you expect in a survival knife. Since you’ll be doing things that you probably shouldn’t with a knife you’ll want a stout bladed knife. When I say a stout knife you’ll want at least a 1 ½-inch wide blade and fairly thick so it doesn’t snap in half and constructed of hard steel. You’ll also…
  • Perpetual Lies About Freedom and Democracy

    Michael S. Rozeff
    20 Nov 2014 | 10:01 pm
    When U.S. governments take Americans into war, we hear them justify it as a fight for freedom. Often they rationalize it as an anti-tyranny fight, a pro-peace fight and a pro-democracy fight. Freedom appeals to Americans. It is a core American value, even if it’s not honored in practice here at home. When politicians use freedom to justify war, they are making an emotional, not a reasoned, appeal. Why? It’s because freedom, while a good thing, is never alone a sufficient reason for the government to commit Americans to a fight for freedom in some foreign land. The war may cost Americans…
  • Will Putin Play His Gold Card?

    No Author
    20 Nov 2014 | 10:01 pm
    The topic of ‘currency war’ has been bantered about in financial circles since at least the term was first used by Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega in September 2010. Recently, the currency war has escalated, and a ‘sanctions war’ against Russia has broken out. History suggests that financial assets are highly unlikely to preserve investors’ real purchasing power in this inhospitable international environment, due in part to the associated currency crises, which will catalyse at least a partial international remonetisation of gold. Vladimir Putin, under pressure from…
  • The Economic Death Spiral

    Peter Schiff
    20 Nov 2014 | 10:01 pm
    As Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe has turned his country into a petri dish of Keynesian ideas, the trajectory of Japan’s economy has much to teach us about the wisdom of those policies. And although the warning sirens are blasting at the highest volumes imaginable, few economists can hear the alarm. (A longer version of this article can be found in Euro Pacific Capital’s Global Investor Newsletter.) Data out this week shows the Japanese economy returning to recession by contracting for the second straight quarter (and three out of the last four quarters). The conclusion…
  • Russia Invades Ukraine

    William Blum
    20 Nov 2014 | 10:01 pm
    “Russia reinforced what Western and Ukrainian officials described as a stealth invasion on Wednesday [August 27], sending armored troops across the border as it expanded the conflict to a new section of Ukrainian territory. The latest incursion, which Ukraine’s military said included five armored personnel carriers, was at least the third movement of troops and weapons from Russia across the southeast part of the border this week.” None of the photos accompanying this New York Times story online showed any of these Russian troops or armored vehicles. “The Obama administration,”…
 
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    Angry Bear

  • Top-Down approach is not working… Go Bottom-Up

    Edward Lambert
    21 Nov 2014 | 9:55 am
    Economics is full of ideas for fiscal & monetary policies. But these policies are Top-down approaches. They work through investment and the financial system. Yes, China lowers its benchmark rate from 6.0% to 5.6%, but China is supporting a failing policy of over-investment. Debt rises… and non-performing loans are increasing. Yes, Draghi wants to do […]
  • Mel Watt?

    Dan Crawford
    20 Nov 2014 | 9:28 am
    Via Naked Capitalism: Elizabeth Warren tore into FHFA director Mel Watt over his failure to develop a program for Fannie and Freddie to provide principal modifications to underwater borrowers at risk of foreclosure. She also got in a dig for his failure to stop the agencies from pursuing deficiency judgments. That means going after former […]
  • Open thread Nov. 18, 2014

    Dan Crawford
    18 Nov 2014 | 6:00 pm
  • The Fournier Transform

    Dan Crawford
    18 Nov 2014 | 11:08 am
    Lifted from Robert’s Stochastic Thoughts: The Fournier Transform Near Stupidoclypse Alert Major meme #Fournierderp It looks as if Ron Fournier may sweep the left blogosphere. I read this by Joan McCarter at DailyKos The nation’s most stubborn and willfully ignorant pundit, Ron “why won’t Obama lead and make Republicans like him” Fournier, strikes again. On […]
  • Phrase of the Day: Fournier Transform

    Dan Crawford
    18 Nov 2014 | 11:07 am
    Dan here…hang on to this definition for examples.  It is also full of  Robert’s somewhat unique humor.  Lifted from Robert Waldmann’s Stochastic Thoughts. Phrase of the Day: Fournier Transform Fournier Transform: This phrase is a technical term which describes the process through which an urgently needed excellent moderate proposal supported by all very serious centrist […]
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    Macro and Other Market Musings

  • Another Look at Neo-Fisherism

    16 Nov 2014 | 2:03 pm
    Below the fold is a recent Twitter discussion I had with David Andolfatto and Noah Smith on Neo-Fisherism. The big takeaway from this conversation is that we all view the expected path of the consolidated government balance sheet as being a key determinant for current aggregate demand growth. This understanding has been implicit in Market Monetarist's calls for level targeting and explicit in our calls for a permanent expansion of the monetary base in a depressed economy. The fact that we have not seen rapid aggregate demand growth is strong evidence that the Fed's QE programs are not…
  • The Love Affair Conservatives Should Be Having

    22 Sep 2014 | 9:26 am
    Paul Krugman and Josh Barro are going after conservatives for their "new love affair with Canada". They claim conservatives are incorrect to view Canada's successful fiscal consolidation in the 1990s as evidence of  "expansionary austerity." Here is Krugman:Canadian austerity in the 1990s was offset by a huge positive movement in the trade balance, due to a falling Canadian dollar and raw material exports...Since we can’t all devalue and move into trade surplus, this meant that the Canadian story in the 1990s had no relevance at all to the austerity debate of 2010.Actually, the…
  • Another Bond Market Conundrum?

    1 Sep 2014 | 8:05 am
    Is the U.S. economy in the midst of another bond  market "conundrum"? The last time we had one was in 2005 when former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan became perplexed over long-term interest rates failing to rise with the tightening of monetary policy. Some observers see something similar happening today. They note that the Fed has been tightening monetary policy with its tapering of QE3 and yet the benchmark 10-year treasury interest rate has been falling since the beginning of 2014. This conundrum gets even more interesting when one looks at the five-year treasury interest rate. It has…
  • About the Fed Not Trying Hard Enough To Hit Its Inflation Target

    24 Aug 2014 | 1:16 pm
    It is hard not to be cynical when you see charts like this one. It shows what appears to be a systematic relationship over the past 6 years between changes in the Fed share of marketable treasuries and PCE core inflation: The figure indicates the Fed allows its share of marketable treasuries to change--by either engaging in LSAPs or refraining from doing so as the total share grows--so that core PCE inflation stays in the 1% to 2% corridor. Here is the scatterplot of this data:Now this is just a reduced-form relationship, but it is highly suggestive and consistent with my claim from an…
  • Talking About the Past Five Years

    22 Aug 2014 | 11:33 am
    I recently gave a talk to the Financial Planning Association of Kentucky. The slides from the presentation are below and readers of this blog with be familiar with many of them. In case you are not familiar, below is the slide outline and where to go for more information. The audience asked many questions that led the discussion beyond what was presented on the slides, including the Triffin Dilemma for US treasuries, why the Fed likes core PCE, and what is holding back the recovery. It was a lively and fun discussion. Slide Outline(1)  Monetary Policy Tightened During the Recession. See…
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    niesr.ac.uk

  • Happier workers, higher profits?

    AlexBryson
    30 Oct 2014 | 3:41 am
    Citizens' wellbeing is rising to the top of the political agenda in Britain.  Just yesterday the government and its partners announced a What Works Centre for Wellbeing which initially has over £3.5 million over three years to investigate the determinants of wellbeing and how to improve it.  This follows government investments in wellbeing metrics developed and pioneered by the Office for National Statistics which, some argue, should be the basis for
  • Can 'Tech North' take off?

    MaxNathan
    27 Oct 2014 | 3:59 am
    Rory Cellan-Jones has a nice article on the BBC website on the prospects for the Government’s ‘Tech North’ initiative, building extensively from my work with Emma Vandore on Tech City in London. Here’s some further thoughts.
  • The real policy challenge - under-utilisation of migrants' skills

    HeatherRolfe
    30 Sep 2014 | 2:46 am
    Much has been made of Ed Miliband’s failure to deliver sections of his conference speech on the economy and on immigration. But he didn’t forget to repeat the policy first announced just before the party’s 2013 conference to require employers to recruit an apprentice for every non-EU migrant they employ:  ‘If you want to bring in a worker from outside the European Union, that’s OK, but you must provide apprenticeships to the next generation’
  • Real Devolution: The Power to Borrow - Reply

    MoniqueEbell
    23 Sep 2014 | 7:30 am
    In our recent paper on devolution we argue that real power requires granting UK regions the ability to borrow in addition to tax and spending powers. In a blog post, Tony Yates suggested that this would in fact create the same mess as the Euro zone.
  • Stubborn facts?

    JonathanPortes
    9 Sep 2014 | 1:57 pm
    Toby Young (Fulbright Lecture, 2014, reported by Laura McInery): Kids can't analyse or think critically without first learning facts
 
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    Bruegel - Latest Updates

  • Internationalisation of the Renminbi: Developments in Offshore Business

    20 Nov 2014 | 1:11 am
    The renminbi (RMB) – the official currency of China – is poised to join the US dollar and the euro as one of the world’s top three global trading currencies. China is now the world’s second largest economy, its largest exporter and the single greatest destination for global direct investment.The Chinese government is actively seeking to internationalise the renminbi to match China’s global economic status. The Chinese government policy is to promote international use of the renminbi in three stages through trade, investment and as a reserve currency. This represents new…
  • Vicious circle(s) 2.0

    19 Nov 2014 | 11:36 pm
    Since the beginning of the crisis – and more so since 2010 – Europeans have been looking at the sovereign-banking “vicious circle”, tying the dismal fates of States and banks together. This has emerged as a characteristic disease during the euro crisis, and one of the stated objective of the European Banking Union project was precisely to remedy it. The idea was basically to achieve this goal in a twofold way, ex ante and ex post. On one hand, by imposing stronger and harmonised supervisory requirements (e.g. on capital) and by empowering a third-party, independent and hopefully…
  • Brain drain, gain, or circulation?

    19 Nov 2014 | 3:43 am
    1 For each author and mobility profile, the median across the relevant journals’ Source-Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) over the entire period is calculated. A SNIP impact value that is higher than one means that the median attributed SNIP for authors of that country/category is above average. 2 International mobility of scientific researchers is inferred from authors listed in the Scopus Custom database of peer-reviewed scientific publications, with at least two documents during the reference period, based on changes in the location of their institutional affiliation. Outflows…
  • Lessons from the Bank of Japan for the euro area

    18 Nov 2014 | 1:34 am
    It was feared that after the consumption tax hike, the inflation expectations would be dampened too much and the Bank of Japan would miss its targetThe decision of the Bank of Japan end of October 2014 to significantly expand its asset-buying programme came as a surprise. The yen weakened and stock markets rallied. The decision taken with only a small majority by the board of the Bank of Japan was taken to show the resolve of the BoJ to increase inflation expectations so that inflation eventually moves to two percent. It was feared that after the consumption tax hike, the inflation…
  • The spillovers of fiscal and monetary policies

    17 Nov 2014 | 11:22 pm
    What’s at stake: Policymakers in emerging economies have repeatedly complained over the spillover effects of advanced economies’ policies in the Great Recession. As the Federal Reserve normalizes its policy, while the Bank of Japan and the ECB contemplate further easing, it remains unclear whether emerging economies possess the tools to limit undue fluctuations associated with these adjustments. Spillovers and coordination Olivier Blanchard, Luc Laeven and Esteban Vesperoni write that the understanding of transmission channels of spillovers has become essential, not only from an…
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    TaxVox

  • Bigger, Cleaner, and More Efficient: A Carbon-Corporate Tax Swap

    Donald Marron
    21 Nov 2014 | 7:00 am
    The Cato Institute has organized an online forum to debate pro-growth economic policy reforms. Tax Policy Center scholars Bill Gale, Donald Marron, and Eric Toder have each contributed to the discussion. The United States could reduce its contribution to global climate change and increase domestic prosperity by taxing emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases and using the resulting revenue to reduce corporate income taxes. Such a carbon-corporate tax swap would give us a bigger, cleaner economy and avoid any need for more costly efforts to reduce emissions. This recommendation…
  • Executive Privilege, Budget Consequences, and Rolling with the Taxes

    Renu Zaretsky
    21 Nov 2014 | 5:00 am
    Shutdown, Omnibus Spending, Continuing Resolution: So many choices in the wake of an Executive Action. The newly emboldened GOP (or is it?) has several options when responding to last night’s executive order on immigration issued by President Obama. After its Thanksgiving break, Congress will have until December 11 to decide. One thing is clear: more legal immigrants mean more tax revenue, as the International Business Times explains. But TPC’s Bill Gale reminds us that no matter what happens in the near-term, Congress needs to get the long-term fiscal house in order. Across the pond, the…
  • Who Won the Election Again?

    Howard Gleckman
    20 Nov 2014 | 1:33 pm
    Pardon me for being confused. Two weeks ago, voters turned the Senate and several state houses over to Republicans and increased the GOP majority in the House. Now, in a new Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll, (firewall) Americans have firmly embraced—a Democratic agenda. They want more government spending on roads and Ebola, They want to raise the minimum wage and lower the cost of student loans. And they want to address climate change by limiting carbon emissions. The don’t want to: Raise the Social Security retirement age, reduce Medicare benefits for high-income retirees, lower…
  • Get the Fiscal House in Order

    William G. Gale
    20 Nov 2014 | 11:59 am
    The Cato Institute has organized an online forum to debate pro-growth economic policy reforms. Tax Policy Center scholars Bill Gale, Donald Marron, and Eric Toder have each contributed to the discussion. As policy makers search for ways to raise economic growth and improve the living standards of future generations, a major priority should be to get our long-term fiscal house in order.1 Judging by the lack of political attention to deficits and debt in 2014, one might think that the fiscal problem has been solved.2 While it is true that long-term fiscal prospects have improved over the last…
  • New Chairs, New Resistance, and Maybe, New Taxes

    Renu Zaretsky
    20 Nov 2014 | 5:00 am
    As expected: Paul Ryan will succeed Dave Camp as House Ways & Means Chair. Representative Kevin Brady removed himself from consideration earlier this week, though he had more committee seniority. The full House GOP conference approved its  Steering Committee’s chairmanship recommendations, including Jason Chaffetz  to replace Darrell Issa on the Oversight and Government Reform panel and Tom Price, who will take over for Ryan on the Budget Committee. Antonio Weiss: No shoe-in for Treasury. Democratic Senators DickDurbin and Elizabeth Warren both reportedly oppose the President’s…
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    Off the Charts Blog | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

  • In Case You Missed It…

    CBPP
    21 Nov 2014 | 11:53 am
    This week on Off the Charts, we focused on the federal budget and taxes, the safety net, health care, and state budgets and taxes. On the federal budget and taxes, Chuck Marr listed four reasons why the House approach to “tax extenders” is flawed. Paul Van de Water explained why policymakers shouldn’t adopt “dynamic scoring” for tax and spending legislation.  We rounded up several new pieces on congressional negotiations over funding levels for this fiscal year.   And Arloc Sherman warned of the impact if Congress shortchanges Census funding. On the safety net, Ife Floyd mapped…
  • Auto-Renewal Not the Best Option for Enrollees in Federal Insurance Marketplace

    January Angeles
    21 Nov 2014 | 11:08 am
    People who bought private health insurance last year through the federally run marketplace could pay more than they should next year unless they return to the marketplace to renew coverage, our new paper explains. That’s because they will be automatically re-enrolled in the same plan in 2015, with the same subsidies to help pay for coverage, unless they choose a plan through the marketplace during the open enrollment season, which began November 15. The federal marketplace, which operates in the 34 states that don’t have a state-based marketplace (see map), provides auto-renewal as a…
  • More Bad News for Backers of Kansas Tax Cuts

    Michael Leachman
    21 Nov 2014 | 7:42 am
    The latest projections from Kansas’ nonpartisan Legislative Research Department bring more bad news for those who hoped Kansas’ massive tax cuts would generate an economic surge. The department predicts that personal incomes will grow more slowly in Kansas than in the nation as a whole this year and will continue to lag behind the national rate in 2015, 2016, and 2017, by wide margins (see graph). This isn’t what tax cut proponents predicted.  Governor Sam Brownback said they would be “a shot of adrenaline into the heart of the Kansas economy.”  The Heritage Foundation’s Stephen…
  • 4 Reasons Why the House Has the Wrong Approach to Tax Extenders

    Chuck Marr
    20 Nov 2014 | 1:09 pm
    Congress is expected during the lame-duck session to address “tax extenders,” a set of tax provisions (mostly for corporations) that policymakers routinely extend for a year or two at a time.  While the Senate has pursued temporary extensions, the House has taken a far different approach that’s flawed on both policy and priorities grounds, as our updated paper explains. The House has: made a number of extenders permanent; permanently expanded one of the biggest extenders, the research and experimentation credit; and permanently extended some temporary tax breaks that aren’t extenders…
  • A State-by-State Look at TANF

    Ife Floyd
    19 Nov 2014 | 1:23 pm
    This interactive map provides a wealth of information on state Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) programs, which — as CBPP analyses have documented — have weakened significantly as a safety net since TANF’s creation in the 1996 welfare law. Not only does TANF reach many fewer needy families than it used to, but TANF benefits have lost a fifth of their value since 1996 in most states and leave families far below the poverty line, making it extremely difficult for them to meet basic needs. The map gives state-specific data on these issues (click on one of the three gray boxes…
 
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    Eschaton

  • Happy Hour Thread

    21 Nov 2014 | 2:00 pm
    enjoy
  • Major League

    21 Nov 2014 | 12:05 pm
    Obviously a guy who is capable of drugging and raping multiple women is a complete asshole, but I get that absent criminal proceedings, members of the press aren't going to be comfortable adjudicating such matters in public. But what has struck me in the wake of the Cosby rape allegations it that it's increasingly being revealed that the guy is a total asshole generally in ways which there aren't really any excuses for not reporting about.Don't misunderstand. I'm not saying that the fact the he's an asshole is more important than the fact that he's probably a serial rapist, I'm just saying…
  • Afternoon Thread

    21 Nov 2014 | 11:29 am
    What do you know, it's Friday.
  • Elites Drive And Love Their Parking

    21 Nov 2014 | 9:17 am
    Which explains a lot.
  • Rigged Market

    21 Nov 2014 | 8:48 am
    I actually think lots of people do want to live in some version of the post-war American suburb, have a detached single family home, etc. But it's wrong to think that landscape emerged purely due to consumer preferences. Policy has been rigged against the alternatives for a long time and in many ways.
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • “If you’re not using a proper, informative prior, you’re leaving money on the table.”

    Andrew
    21 Nov 2014 | 6:40 am
    Well put, Rob Weiss. This is not to say that one must always use an informative prior; oftentimes it can make sense to throw away some information for reasons of convenience. But it’s good to remember that, if you do use a noninformative prior, that you’re doing less than you could. The post “If you’re not using a proper, informative prior, you’re leaving money on the table.” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • Soil Scientists Seeking Super Model

    Bob Carpenter
    20 Nov 2014 | 1:54 pm
    I (Bob) spent last weekend at Biosphere 2, collaborating with soil carbon biogeochemists on a “super model.” Model combination and expansion The biogeochemists (three sciences in one!) have developed hundreds of competing models and the goal of the workshop was to kick off some projects on putting some of them together intos wholes that are greater than the sum of their parts. We’ll be doing some mixture (and perhaps change point) modeling, which makes sense here because of different biogeochemical processes at work based on system evolution and extrinsic conditions (some of…
  • Retrospective clinical trials?

    Andrew
    20 Nov 2014 | 6:40 am
    Kelvin Leshabari writes: I am a young medical doctor in Africa who wondered if it is possible to have a retrospective designed randomised clinical trial and yet be sound valid in statistical sense. This is because to the best of my knowledge, the assumptions underlying RCT methodology include that data is obtained in a prospective manner! We are now about to design a new study in a clinical set up and during literature search we encountered few data published with such a design in mind. It has risen some confusion among the trialists whether we should include the findings and account for them…
  • Replication controversies

    Andrew
    19 Nov 2014 | 7:12 am
    I don’t know what ATR is but I’m glad somebody is on the job of prohibiting replication catastrophe: Seriously, though, I’m on a list regarding a reproducibility project, and someone forwarded along this blog by psychology researcher Simone Schnall, whose attitudes we discussed several months ago in the context of some controversies about attempted replications of some of her work in social psychology. I’ll return at the end to my remarks from July, but first I’d like to address Schnall’s recent blog, which I found unsettling. There are some technical…
  • 4-year-old post on Arnold Zellner is oddly topical

    Andrew
    19 Nov 2014 | 6:20 am
    I’m re-running this Arnold Zellner obituary because it is relevant to two recent blog discussions: 1. Differences between econometrics and statistics 2. Old-fashioned sexism (of the quaint, not the horrible, variety) The post 4-year-old post on Arnold Zellner is oddly topical appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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    macroblog

  • For Middle-Skill Occupations, Where Have All the Workers Gone?

    macroblog
    20 Nov 2014 | 5:56 am
    Considerable discussion in recent years has concerned the “hollowing out of the middle class.” Part of that story revolves around the loss of the types of jobs that traditionally have been the core of the U.S. economy: so-called middle-skill jobs. These jobs, based on the methodology of David Autor, consist of office and administrative occupations; sales jobs; operators, fabricators, and laborers; and production, craft, and repair personnel (many of whom work in the manufacturing industry). In this post, we don't examine why the decline in middle-skill jobs has occurred, just how…
  • A Closer Look at Employment and Social Insurance

    macroblog
    13 Nov 2014 | 11:49 am
    The Atlanta Fed's Center for Human Capital Studies hosted its annual employment conference on October 2–3, 2014, organized once again by Richard Rogerson of Princeton University, Robert Shimer of the University of Chicago, and the Atlanta Fed's Melinda Pitts. This macroblog post summarizes some of the discussions. Social insurance programs in the United States and other developed countries represent a large and growing share of expenditures relative to gross domestic product (GDP). Assessing the costs and benefits of the diverse programs that make up the U.S. social insurance system is…
  • Wage Growth of Part-Time versus Full-Time Workers: Evidence from the CPS

    macroblog
    10 Nov 2014 | 10:49 am
    Last week, our Atlanta Fed colleagues Lei Fang and Pedro Silos highlighted the wage growth trends of full-time and part-time workers in recent years. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), they showed relatively weak growth in hourly wages of part-time workers between 2011 and 2013. The Current Population Survey (CPS)—administered jointly by the Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—also contains wage information and has data through September 2014. We thought it would be interesting to see if the CPS data…
  • Wage Growth of Part-Time versus Full-Time Workers: Evidence from the SIPP

    macroblog
    6 Nov 2014 | 12:15 pm
    Debates about the sluggish recovery in output, the low growth in labor productivity, and the actual level of slack in the U.S. economy are common within policy circles (see, for example, this speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen and previous macroblog posts—here and here). One of the defining features of the recovery from the Great Recession has been the rise in the number of people employed part-time. As reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, roughly 10 percent more people are working part-time in September 2014 than before the recession. Part-time workers generally earn less per…
 
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    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • Why workers matter

    chris dillow
    21 Nov 2014 | 5:20 am
    So far this month, the FTSE 100 has risen 2.7%. There's a link between this fact and Emily Thornberry's resignation for that tweet. The Footsie's gain is consistent with one of the strongest tendencies in finance - for Halloween to be a buy signal. This has an important and under-appreciated implication. It implies that, underneath their smart suits and brass name-plates, professional investors are in fact just like our pagan ancestors. They get gloomy around Samhain thus pushing share prices too low, and cheerful around May Day, which sends prices too high: the counterpart of…
  • The turn away from politics

    chris dillow
    20 Nov 2014 | 6:15 am
    Julie Bindel reminds me of one of my pet theories - that nobody is much interested in politics. By nobody I don't just mean ordinary Joes and Joannas but also people who think of themselves as political, and even professional politicians. Let's start by defining politics. Oakeshott called it (pdf)  "the activity of attending to the general arrangements of a set of people whom chance or choice have brought together." Lasswell defined (pdf) it as "who gets what, when and how". Either definition will do for my purposes. Ms Bindel writes of (some?) feminists:…
  • Klass war

    chris dillow
    18 Nov 2014 | 6:01 am
    Myleene Klass's attack on the Mansion Tax has been met with cheering on the right and mockery on the left. Such tribalism overlooks a more important point - that the celebocracy which leads TV bosses to put people like Myleene onto political shows has a systematic pernicious effect. An experiment (pdf) by James Andreoni and Justin Rao shows why. They got people to play simple dictator games in which one person could choose whether to share some money with another. They found that communication greatly influenced dictators' behaviour. When recipents were allowed to ask for money,…
  • Cameron's lousy defence

    chris dillow
    17 Nov 2014 | 6:07 am
    In today's Guardian, David Cameron commits one of the most atrocious non sequiturs I've ever seen. He begins from a reasonable premise - that "wider problems in the global economy pose a real risk to our recovery at home": emerging markets are slowing down; the euro area is close to recession; and uncertainty in Russia and the middle east might also depress growth. But then comes this: As the global economy faces greater uncertainty, it is more important than ever that we send a clear message to the world that Britain is not going to waver on dealing with its debts. This…
  • Encouraging financial innovation

    chris dillow
    16 Nov 2014 | 5:05 am
    Reading Luis Garicano and Lucrezia Reichlin's argument for the creation of a synthetic safe eurobond through which the ECB can conduct QE, an old question arose: why do we see so much bad financial innovation and so little good? I say this is an old question because it is now over 20 years since Robert Shiller wrote Macro Markets, in which he proposed the creation of financial products to manage macroeconomic risks, and yet we've seen little progress on this front. What we have seen, though, is the creation of mortgage derivatives which contributed to the crash. This illustrates a…
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    Moneybox

  • It Took 12 Trucks to Haul Away All the Cash This Corrupt Chinese General Hid in His Home

    Jordan Weissmann
    21 Nov 2014 | 3:03 pm
    The Chinese government has been making a great show of cracking down on official corruption, and in the process, finding some truly mind-boggling stashes of bribery money. Today, the Financial Times reports this incredible tidbit: When investigators searched the Beijing home of  Xu Caihou, one of China’s highest-ranking army generals, they found so much cash and precious gems they needed a week to count it all and 12 trucks to haul it away. The cash was neatly stacked in boxes, each with the name of the soldier who had paid the bribe in exchange for promotion up the chain of command.
  • How Not to Disrupt Women’s Bodies

    Maria Aspan
    21 Nov 2014 | 8:56 am
    This article originally appeared in Inc. There is, you may have recently read, a new biobro startup project in Silicon Valley. It's called Sweet Peach. (Not a Snapple flavor.) Its mission, apparently hatched by a couple of 11-year-old boys still in the "ew, girl cooties" stage, is to make sure women's vaginas smell "pleasant." I have so many questions about this! Why would the people behind this idea—male biotech founders Austen Heinz and Gilad Gome—fix on "feminine odor" as a pressing problem to solve? What terrible smells must these men have been exposed…
  • Pizza Hut Asked a Bunch of Old Italian People to Judge Its Pizza

    Alison Griswold
    20 Nov 2014 | 2:07 pm
    Pizza Hut has just started a major rebranding effort. Headlined the “Flavor of Now,” the campaign aims to give a much-needed boost to Pizza Hut’s U.S. business by wooing customers with dozens of new pizza options. Why have plain crust when you can make that toasted Asiago? Pepperoni is so boring—how about spinach and a drizzle of honey sriracha sauce? As part of its marketing push, Pizza Hut has rolled out a series of ads by creative agency Deutsch L.A., the same firm that put together those memorable Ronald McDonald ads for Taco Bell. For the new ads, Pizza Hut is taking its new menu…
  • Uh-Oh: Administration Overcounted Obamacare Enrollees by 380,000

    Jordan Weissmann
    20 Nov 2014 | 1:29 pm
    The Obama administration has acknowledged that it overcounted the number of Americans currently enrolled in health insurance purchased through the Affordable Care Act's online exchanges,Bloombergreports today Earlier this month, Department of Health and Human Services announced that 7.1 million individuals were still paying for coverage they bought on the marketplaces last year, down from the 8 million who originally signed up. However, that number included 380,000 people who only bought dental plans. The actual number of Obamacare health-insurance enrollees was closer to 6.7 million. “A…
  • Man Hit With $1,142 in Wi-Fi Overage Charges on Flight From London to Singapore

    Alison Griswold
    20 Nov 2014 | 10:51 am
    Last week, Jeremy Gutsche flew from London to Singapore on Singapore Airlines. He purchased a 30 MB in-air Internet package for $28.99. When he deplaned, he was shocked to learn he'd been hit with an additional $1,142.47 in overage charges. Gutsche, the chief executive of Trend Hunter, a self-described "popular trend community" website, says he racked up a terrifying $1,171.46 bill for in-flight Wi-Fi from provider OnAir. In an initial post on Trend Hunter, Gutsche wrote that he used data to upload a 4 MB PowerPoint and make "155 page views, mostly to my email." He says…
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    Economic Development Blog » Economic Development Blog -

  • Craig J. Richard to Lead Atlanta Economic Development

    Economic Development HQ.com
    21 Nov 2014 | 7:12 am
    Craig J. Richard has been named as the new president and chief executive officer of the City of Atlanta economic development authority Invest Atlanta. Craig J. Richard Richard was picked to lead Invest Atlanta through a competitive process. He was one of the three finalists selected by Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed following a national search conducted on behalf of the City by Jorgensen Consulting. Mayor Reed said in a release announcing the pick that Richard is uniquely qualified to lead Invest Atlanta as they continue to grow the economy, create jobs and retain the businesses who already call…
  • Delta Regional Authority Invests $3.7M for Arkansas Economic Development Projects

    Economic Development HQ.com
    21 Nov 2014 | 4:14 am
    The Delta Regional Authority, along with its state and local partners, announced an investment of more than $3.7 million to support eight Arkansas economic development projects. DRA map (photo – dra.gov) The $1.393 million in federal DRA funding is being leveraged to secure another $2.345 million in other public and private investments, adding up into a total of $3.739 million in financial support for the eight projects. It is estimated that the federal, state and local investment in these eight projects will help create and retain 1,050 jobs in Arkansas. The federal portion of the…
  • Nevada Approves Economic Development Incentives for Switch and K2 Energy Expansions

    Economic Development HQ.com
    20 Nov 2014 | 10:03 pm
    At its latest meeting, the Board of Directors of the Nevada Governor’s Office of Economic Development approved incentives for three major projects. Nevada GOED (photo – diversifynevada.com) One of the projects is a $225 million investment in Clark County by Las Vegas-based tech solutions company Switch, Ltd., developer of the SUPERNAP data centers. The investment will create a minimum of 34 new jobs and possibly up to 80 new jobs. There are already 5,000 jobs related to Switch data centers. The company plans to continue adding to its line of data center ecosystems, and this latest…
  • IL, OH, TX, VA Competing for Air Force Mission Center HQ Site Selection With 350 Jobs

    Economic Development HQ.com
    20 Nov 2014 | 7:23 am
    The United States Air Force has narrowed its site selection process for the new Air Force Installation and Mission Support Center to four candidate bases in Illinois, Ohio, Texas and Virginia. Air Force Materiel Command HQ, Wright Paterson AFB, OH (public domain photo by USAF) The Air Force began the process to select a location for the new AFIMSC headquarters with ten installations, and has now announced the following bases as finalists in the process – Scott Air Force Base, Illinois; and Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio; Joint Base San Antonio, Texas; and Joint Base Langley-Eustis,…
  • US EDA and MBDA Launch Tribal Economic Development Webinar Series

    Economic Development HQ.com
    19 Nov 2014 | 10:06 pm
    The U.S. Economic Development Administration and the Minority Business Development Agency have teamed up to launch a webinar series on tribal economic development. MBDA Tribal Economic Development Webinar (photo – mbda.gov) The EDA and MBDA are hosting five webinars in this series over the course of a year.  The first tribal economic development webinar was held on Nov 19. The webinar was designed to help tribal leaders and administrators, tribal advocacy organizations and Native American-owned businesses understand the federal resources available for tribal economic development. The…
 
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    Washington Center for Equitable Growth

  • The changing dynamics of economic inequality and for-profit universities

    Bridget Ansel
    21 Nov 2014 | 9:43 am
    Last month, the U.S. Department of Education announced their final “program integrity rules” that will govern universities and colleges receiving federal aid, including tuition paid through government grants and loans. The regulations, which will take effect in January 2015, include new “gainful employment” measures intended to asses how many of a school’s graduates find good jobs. Holding schools accountable seems obvious, especially considering the difficulty many young people have finding work. These rules, however, are likely to disqualify about 1,400 educational programs…
  • Afternoon Must-Read: Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher: Re/code Removes Comments

    20 Nov 2014 | 12:04 pm
    Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher: A Note to Re/code Readers: “The biggest change for some of you… …however, will be that we have decided to remove the commenting function from the site. We thought about this decision long and hard, since we do value reader opinion. But we concluded that, as social media has continued its robust growth, the bulk of discussion of our stories is increasingly taking place there, making onsite comments less and less used and less and less useful…. We believe that social media is the new arena for commenting, replacing the old onsite approach…
  • Things to Read at Lunchtime on November 20, 2014

    Brad DeLong
    20 Nov 2014 | 8:42 am
    Must- and Shall-Reads: Dean Baker: Quick, Some Meaningless Budget Numbers from the NYT) Jim Landers: Hospitals seek a Texas Way to expand Medicaid | Dallas Morning News Howard Gleckman: Will Obama’s Executive Action on Immigration Kill Tax Reform? Hint: You Can’t Kill Something That’s Already Dead The Growth Economics Blog: The Skeptics Guide to Institutions – Part 1 Paul Krugman: Fiscal Responsibility Claims Another Victim: Japan Giovanni Peri (2012): Rationalizing U.S. Immigration Policy: Reforms for Simplicity, Fairness, and Economic Growth Bill Gardner: The ACA is working. So why…
  • Morning Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Structural Deformity

    20 Nov 2014 | 8:30 am
    Paul Krugman: Structural Deformity: “Shinzo Abe is doing the right thing… …trying to accomplish something very difficult, and it’s by no means clear whether the instruments he’s deploying are sufficient. Still, there’s one type of criticism that I really, really hate… especially because it’s one of those things that is so completely accepted by Very Serious People that they don’t even realize that they’re spouting a dubious hypothesis…. I refer to the claim that Japan doesn’t need a demand boost, it needs structural reformTM…. Traditionally,…
  • How low can the U.S. unemployment rate go?

    Nick Bunker
    20 Nov 2014 | 6:46 am
    Determining the “natural rate of unemployment” in the U.S. labor market—the point at which nearly full employment is reached without sparking wage-driven inflation—is very much on the minds of economists today. The unemployment rate was 5.8 percent in October and the labor market has added an average of 229,000 jobs a month over the course of 2014, with unemployment down sharply from 7.2 percent in October 2013 and average gains in net jobs in 2013 of only 194,000 a month. Yet weaknesses still abound. The prime-age employment-to-population ratio is still 2.8 percentage points below…
 
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    FiveThirtyEight » Economics | FiveThirtyEight

  • Offering Birth Control Over The Counter Wouldn’t Make It Any Cheaper

    Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
    18 Nov 2014 | 4:10 am
    In September, with less than three months to go before the 2014 midterm elections, some Republican candidates adopted a surprising policy position: Birth control should be sold over the counter.Cory Gardner was one of them. In a television ad for his U.S. Senate campaign in Colorado, he declared that the pill should be available “ ’round the clock, without a prescription.”At least five high-profile GOP candidates — including Thom Tillis of North Carolina — announced their support for over-the-counter birth control. (Gardner and Tillis did not respond to repeated requests…
  • More Free Lunches Could Spoil Data For Researchers

    Ben Wieder
    17 Nov 2014 | 3:02 am
    A new federal initiative that could provide millions of students with a free lunch might have an unexpected cost for researchers and state educational agencies.Starting in July, many high-poverty schools where at least 40 percent of students qualify for a free or reduced lunch could begin to offer that free lunch to every student — regardless of income — under the new community eligibility provision of the National School Lunch Program.In the process, however, expanding the program presents challenges for researchers and educators that have for decades used participation in it as…
  • How Good Are Incumbent Governors’ Economic Records?

    Ben Casselman
    4 Nov 2014 | 7:30 am
    The Wall Street Journal had an article last week on how many governors running for re-election are touting their economic records, and on how many voters aren’t buying their claims of progress. The Journal attributed voters’ skepticism largely to stagnant incomes, which makes sense. As I’ve said before, it hasn’t felt like much of a recovery for many Americans.Still, stagnant incomes are a national problem — it’s hard to blame it on specific governors. The same goes for lots of other indicators, good and bad. Incumbent governors such as Florida’s Rick Scott and Colorado’s…
  • Finding A Job With A Felony Conviction Is Hard. California May Make It Easier.

    Ben Casselman
    3 Nov 2014 | 7:53 am
    When Richard Martin was convicted of felony drug possession two decades ago, he decided it was time to get clean and get a job. Getting clean was hard. Getting a job was even harder.He was a 40-year-old recovering addict with an erratic work history and a felony conviction. Most private employers wouldn’t even look at his resume. He got a job as a teacher, but then had his teaching license revoked when the state discovered his conviction. He eventually earned a master’s degree, found work in the nonprofit sector and has never again had trouble with the law. But he knows he is lucky.“It…
  • Election Day Could Bring Raises To 680,000 Low-Wage Workers

    Ben Casselman
    30 Oct 2014 | 8:38 am
    Voters in five states — Alaska, Arkansas, Illinois, Nebraska and South Dakota — will decide on ballot initiatives proposing an increase in the states’ minimum wages. Four of the initiatives would be binding; in Illinois, the ballot measure is only advisory.The votes come at a time when the minimum wage has emerged as a national issue. President Obama has proposed raising the federal minimum wage to $10.10 an hour from its current level of $7.25. Labor activists have gone further, pushing for a $15 “living wage.”7Efforts to raise the federal minimum wage have foundered, but…
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    Economics and everyday life at EconLife.com

  • How to Become More Productive

    Elaine Schwartz
    21 Nov 2014 | 5:00 am
    Shown by Fitbits, workplace output goals and division of labor, when implicit and explicit targets increase self-control, they boost productivity.
  • Hey, Spotify. Taylor Swift called. She wants her money.

    Elaine Schwartz
    20 Nov 2014 | 5:00 am
    With the music industry moving from CDs to streaming, firms like Spotify have created new supply and demand and new incentives for performers and providers.
  • Ice Cold Economics

    Econlife Editor
    19 Nov 2014 | 12:52 pm
    By Isabelle Vicens with Elaine Schwartz View the story “The Economics of a Winter Wonderland” on Storify
  • Refrigerator Refill

    Econlife Editor
    19 Nov 2014 | 12:32 pm
    Dear Alexa, By the time Sunday rolls around, my husband and I are extremely tired from a week’s worth of work. But, one of us has to go to the supermarket to restock the fridge. Who should it be? Sincerely, Tired Tiffany Dear Tired Tiffany, Have no fear, your supermarket stress is not very difficult to resolve! The …
  • It Ain’t Easy Being Pretty

    Elaine Schwartz
    19 Nov 2014 | 5:00 am
    When Job discrimination based on gender targets to women's clothing, body type and make-up, it can relate to a dominant social group and patriarchal bias.
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    Vox - All

  • Netflix has saved Tina Fey’s new show from NBC purgatory. Here's why.

    Todd VanDerWerff
    21 Nov 2014 | 4:00 pm
    There's no need to have a "save this show" campaign for Tina Fey's new series Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, her first on the air since beloved backstage sitcom 30 Rock. (She co-created it with fellow 30 Rock producer Robert Carlock.) Originally developed for NBC, then picked up by the network to debut in early 2015, it's now going to Netflix, which has guaranteed a two-season run for a show that would have been lucky to stumble through one on a traditional broadcast network. It debuts in March. Starring Ellie Kemper (best known for The Office and Bridesmaids), the show is a quirky comedy…
  • The seventh Benghazi investigation is out, finds there was no intelligence failure

    Dylan Matthews
    21 Nov 2014 | 3:10 pm
    The House Intelligence Committee has issued its final report investigating the attacks on US officials in Benghazi, Libya, on September 11, 2012, and September 12, 2012. The report concludes that "the CIA ensured sufficient security for CIA facilities … and, without a requirement to do so, ably and bravely assisted the State Department on the night of the attacks … Appropriate US personnel made reasonable tactical decisions that night, and the Committee found no evidence that there was either a stand down order or a denial of available air support." It also claims there was "no…
  • Why kids on Twitter are blaming Michelle Obama for gross school lunches

    Libby Nelson
    21 Nov 2014 | 1:40 pm
    Complaining about school lunch is a time-honored tradition. But teens on Twitter have found someone new to blame, tweeting photos of tiny and/or disgusting-looking school lunches with the hashtag #ThanksMichelleObama: This is my lunch. I'm in high school. #ThanksMichelleObama pic.twitter.com/02t4MScBIe — Maya Wuertz (@wuertznightmare) November 17, 2014 Because healthy eating, particularly for kids, is one of the First Lady's signature issues, it makes sense that she'd be associated with changes to the federal school lunch program. But those changes actually started with Congress and were…
  • Ferguson police insist they need armored vehicles, rubber bullets, and tear gas

    German Lopez
    21 Nov 2014 | 1:20 pm
    Police in Ferguson, Missouri, have fully declined eight of 19 rules of engagement proposed by demonstrators who have been protesting the police shooting of Michael Brown, including a rule to avoid the use of "equipment such as armored vehicles, rubber bullets, rifles and tear gas." The response comes weeks after protesters in Ferguson launched NoIndictment.org to organize demonstrations in response to the looming grand jury decision for the Brown shooting. A grand jury decision's decision on whether to indict police officerDarren Wilson for killing Brown, a black 18-year-old who was unarmed…
  • Here's who will be deported under Obama's immigration plan

    Dara Lind
    21 Nov 2014 | 11:30 am
    The Obama administration issued a slew of memos yesterday outlining executive actions they'll be taking on immigration. The policy change that's gotten the most attention, both before the memos were officially released and afterward, is the president's new deferred action program for parents of US citizens and permanent residents. But that's far from the only change the administration's making — or even the only one that's going to affect the lives of unauthorized immigrants. There are over 7 million immigrants not covered by Obama's new guarantee of non-deportation, and yesterday's orders…
 
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    Commentary - Money, Banking and Financial Markets

  • It's the leverage, stupid!

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    17 Nov 2014 | 5:53 am
    In the 30 months following the 2000 stock market peak, the S&P 500 fell by about 45%. Yet the U.S. recession that followed was brief and shallow. In the 21 months following the 2007 stock market peak, the equity market fell by a comparable 52%. This time was different: the recession that began in December 2007 was the deepest and longest since the 1930s.The contrast between these two episodes of bursting asset price bubbles ought to make you wonder. When should we really worry about asset price bubbles? In fact, the biggest concern is not bubbles per se; it is leverage. And, surprisingly,…
  • Monetary Policy: A Lesson Learned

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    10 Nov 2014 | 5:19 am
    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently ended another round of large-scale asset purchases, so now is a good opportunity to take stock of what Fed policy has achieved since the peak of the financial crisis in fall 2008.Back in 2002, then-Governor Ben Bernanke gave a speech entitled “Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here.” His message was that the experience of the 1930s taught us the importance of using aggressive monetary accommodation to avoid deflation. As Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, Bernanke and his colleagues…
  • A Primer on Bank Capital

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    3 Nov 2014 | 5:22 am
    "The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you've got it made." Groucho Marx When a financial system is hit by unforeseen, adverse events, bank capital is the first line of defense. Assuming the balance sheet isn’t fake (a la Groucho Marx), capital, or net worth, is the owners’ stake in the bank. Profits and losses from a bank’s activities alter its net worth, guiding investment and risk-taking. If losses wipe out its capital, the bank becomes insolvent – its assets are inadequate to cover its fixed liabilities – and typically fails.Capital helps…
  • The Importance of Being Europe

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    27 Oct 2014 | 5:28 am
    “The truth is rarely pure and never simple.”Oscar Wilde, The Importance of Being EarnestIf Oscar Wilde were still around, he could write a wonderful comedy about European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Like the life of his protagonist, Ernest John, the evolution of EMU is rarely pure and never simple. But it would take a Wilde imagination to see exactly how EMU gets to a happy ending.Despite its name, EMU was not and is not primarily an economic endeavor. Introducing the euro lowered transactions costs and facilitated the flow of trade and finance within the euro area. It also reduced…
  • Rolling the dice, again

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    21 Oct 2014 | 5:57 am
    The headline on Reuters at Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:05pm EDT read “U.S. regulator targeting lower down payments on mortgages.” At first, we thought perhaps the headline was from 2004, not 2014. After the financial crisis of 2007-2009, it seemed inconceivable that U.S. authorities would again put some of the largest U.S. intermediaries – or the taxpayers who provide for them – at risk of failure. Sadly, we were wrong.In a speech to the Mortgage Bankers Association, Melvin L. Watt, the Director of the agency that regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, made the following statement:“To…
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    Credence Independent Advisors

  • Global economy hovering between growth and stagnation

    Paul Marwaha
    19 Nov 2014 | 4:25 am
    The world economy’s warning lights are flashing red, the PM said at the weekend. Here are six reasons he may be right. UK trade to the EU Ambitious plans for Britain to export its way out of trouble have foundered. The message from David Cameron was that Britain, which exports a third of its output, can expect to see little improvement in the next few years. In fact things might get much worse. Fostering an export boom was a central plank of government policy following the banking crash, when a fall in the value of the pound was supposed to further help booming demand for British goods in…
  • FTSE extends rally on bullish company updates

    Glenn Scott-Ellis
    18 Nov 2014 | 3:32 am
    (Reuters) – Britain’s blue-chip index edged higher on Tuesday, adding to weeks of gains after bullish updates from British Land and insurer Prudential. Real estate investment trust British Land rose 1.5 percent to be a top FTSE gainer after posting an 11.8 percent rise in half-year net asset value (NAV), reaping the benefits of London’s booming property market. “There were concerns regarding another easing of house prices UK wide, but the numbers look strong,” Guardian Stockbrokers director of trading, Atif Latif, said. Latif said that a positive outlook coupled…
  • G20 Brisbane: final communique lists 800 measures for economic growth

    Dermot Crawford
    17 Nov 2014 | 2:25 am
    G20 leaders approve a package estimated to increase global growth by at least 2.1% by 2018 after two-day summit. G20 leaders have approved a package of 800 measures estimated to increase their economic output by 2.1% by 2018 if fully implemented. At the end of the two-day summit in Brisbane, Australia, leaders representing 85% of the world’s economy also called for “strong and effective action” on climate change, with countries urged to reveal new emissions reduction targets in the first few months of next year. Australia, the host nation, had wanted to keep the summit focused on…
  • Asia slips in wake of soft data, oil stuck near lows

    Jamil Al Maani
    14 Nov 2014 | 12:00 am
    (Reuters) – Asian stocks fell on Friday following fresh signs of slowing Chinese growth, with energy stocks depressed across the region as crude oil hovered near a four-year low in an oversupplied market. Spreadbetters expected the cautious mood in risk assets continuing into Europe, forecasting an effectively flat open for London’s FTSE, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.3 percent. China’s economy lost further momentum in October, with factory growth dipping and investment growth hitting a…
  • Why interest rates won’t rise any time soon?

    Mark Boyes
    8 Nov 2014 | 11:02 pm
    Economists expect Bank of England’s quarterly healthcheck of the UK economy to rubber stamp expectations that interest rates will remain low for longer. Interest rates will remain on hold beyond next year’s general election, the Bank of England is expected to signal this week, in an environment of lower inflation, weak wage growth and increasing eurozone headwinds. Economists expect the Bank’s latest Inflation Report to highlight a risk that price rises, as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI) could fall below 1pc at the beginning of 2015, from September’s five-year low of…
 
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    iTestCash.com - News

  • Man Got Away With Printing $250 Milion in Fake Currency

    Alexander Reichmann
    3 Nov 2014 | 11:29 am
    A fascinating story came out in the past year about a guy named Frank Bourassa from Canada who printed approximately 250 million in fake U.S. money over a few years. Before getting into counterfeiting, Frank Bourassa had a history with crime to make money, including stealing clothing and car parts onto stealing and selling actual cars. A little while after all of this Frank thought about how everyone was crumbling to make money and decided to skip all of that and go straight to counterfeiting money.                                                              …
  • $500,000 in Fake Merchandise Confiscated at East Indianapolis Store

    Alexander Reichmann
    13 Oct 2014 | 12:36 pm
    This past Sunday there was a big hit on a store in Indianapolis.  The store was selling hundreds of thousands dollars in fake merchandise posing as brands such as Nike, Gucci, Oakley, UGG, Polo, Otterbox, Coach, NBA, NFL, NHL, and MLB. The items confiscated included clothing such as shoes, hats and shirts, along with other items like cell phone cases and unlicensed copies of DVD movies. According to the reports, the Indiana Excise officers searched the store from about 11 a.m. until about 5:30 p.m. totaling more than 6 hours spent searching and retrieving items from the store. A trailer and…
  • $1000 Cheeseburger at Sonic: Why Businesses Need to Worry About Counterfeit Bills

    Alexander Reichmann
    16 Sep 2014 | 10:48 am
    Counterfeit money can turn up when you least expect it. This week, for example, a 22-year-old man named Christopher R. Cascio was arrested for attempting to pass off counterfeit money at Sonic, a popular fast-food restaurant chain. He was arraigned on Wednesday and is currently being held on $1,000 bail- a very expensive cheeseburger. That raises the question though, why do people do it? Passing off large bills for big ticket items might have some logic, but why bother to go through the trouble of obtaining counterfeit money only to exchange it for a $3 cheeseburger? Cascio isn’t alone. The…
  • 4 Reasons Why You Should Be Concerned About Counterfeit Currency

    Alexander Reichmann
    13 Aug 2014 | 1:29 pm
    With the modern explosion of technology and growth of electronic payments, most small businesses and individuals are no longer worried about counterfeit currency, as online and electronic fraud has become a bigger, scarier problem. Although it may seem like online fraud is more common and favored amongst fraudsters in 2014, small business owners mustn’t forget about the very real threat that is counterfeit currency. Even with all the clever, difficult-to-imitate features that the Federal Reserve has put on notes over the years, criminals still manage to counterfeit notes with the use of…
  • Counterfeit Money Being Passed at Garage Sales

    Alexander Reichmann
    3 Aug 2014 | 4:16 pm
    A news report from Kake gives notice that counterfeit money is said to be being used at garage sales in Wichita, Kansas. This likely isn't a surprise to people following news on the topic. We reported on our website a few years ago when a report came out that fake money was used at a lemonade stand which is similar to this story in how it could effect a small sale operation. This article from Kansas says that the Wichita police have seen several casess like this in the past few months of fake money being used at garage sales. They also mention that you can buy a special pen to detect if the…
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    Republic 3.0

  • Pay Congressional interns

    Burdett Loomis and Gary Meltz
    20 Nov 2014 | 5:32 am
    It's not just a matter of fairness. Unpaid Congressional internships limit opportunities for students who want to work on the Hill - and limit the talent pool for Hill offices. The post Pay Congressional interns appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • Q&A: Public policy and the end of life

    Republic 3.0
    18 Nov 2014 | 9:23 am
    Better and more widespread use of advance directives can help ensure that patients' wishes are respected at the end of life, says Third Way's David Kendall. The post Q&A: Public policy and the end of life appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • The answer to New York City’s affordable housing crisis is under its feet

    Leonard Grunstein
    18 Nov 2014 | 8:41 am
    Vast tracts of unused city-owned land could be the key to providing affordable housing in New York City - and potentially elsewhere. The post The answer to New York City’s affordable housing crisis is under its feet appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • Three perspectives on net neutrality

    Republic 3.0
    11 Nov 2014 | 5:50 am
    Must-read commentary from both sides of the debate from former Assistant Secretary of Commerce Everett Ehrlich, former Congresswoman Eva Clayton and Internet advocate David Sohn. The post Three perspectives on net neutrality appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • How to get Congress moving: Six bipartisan ideas to help the economy and the middle class

    Anne Kim
    10 Nov 2014 | 8:29 am
    If the White House and Congress are serious about getting things done, there are plenty of common ground proposals to start from. The post How to get Congress moving: Six bipartisan ideas to help the economy and the middle class appeared first on Republic 3.0.
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    procurementdefinition.com

  • Procurement Meaning and Definition

    Proc Def
    19 Nov 2014 | 2:50 am
     Procurement Meaning and Definition The perspective of departments outside of the procurement department is that procurement is all about purchasing. This may be partially true. Procurement looks to centralise purchasing to improve economy of scale, to increase purchasing power and to reduce the overhead involved in purchasing. Procurement meaning and definition can be strongly influenced by the structured processes in place that manage procurement. Some procurement professionals like the structure around procurement process as it can remove a lot of the need to customise a procurement…
  • Procurement Meaning Business

    Proc Def
    13 Nov 2014 | 10:03 pm
    Procurement Meaning Business A main consideration of procurement meaning business is the profitability that can be gained from procurement decision making. In driving value for money evaluation criteria can contain a total cost to procure element. It is important to consider the long term implications of procurement of goods and services rather than just the short term upfront costs. Maintenance, ease of dealing with supplier, demonstrated ability, delivery systems and payment systems may all be part of the package that procurement professionals look at when deciding which suppliers that…
  • procurement meaning and process

    Proc Def
    12 Nov 2014 | 2:11 am
    Procurement Meaning and Process The procurement function in an organisation should have as a major goal as to centralise spend on significant purchases. This will provide value to the organisation in terms of economy of scale and increased purchasing power, rationalisation of resources and expertise involved in procurement and the streamlining of the process for carrying out significant purchases. Procurement Meaning and Process – Planning By having dedicated resources and a standard process, procurement distinguishes itself from routine purchasing. The initial activity in procurement…
  • Define Procure to Pay

    Proc Def
    11 Nov 2014 | 3:00 am
    Define Procure to Pay The lifeblood of a small business in most circumstances is maintaining the flow of cash into the business or cashflow. Without it, business can be stifled. However in big business paying vendors on time (and in sorter lead times) can assist the relationship and be a point of negotiation for lower prices. For example, settlement discounts to prices can be offered as a value add to a contract in return for faster payment. However it is difficult to be able to extract value from faster payments when there is a disconnect between the purchasing department and the accounts…
  • Define Procure and Definition

    Proc Def
    5 Nov 2014 | 2:31 am
    Define Procure and Definition The word “procure” can be used to distinguish a routine transactional activity of purchasing goods and services from an activity where decisions are based on outcome(s) that could affect the whole organisation. That is, the activity to procure is clearly aligned to outcomes driven by organisation’s objectives not just local needs. For example, routine transactional purchasing of one identical item independently across a number of different parts of an organisation may lead to missed opportunities compared to if that items was to be procured centrally under…
 
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