Economics

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  • Michael Hudson: Europe to Pay for the Whole Mess in Ukraine

    naked capitalism
    Yves Smith
    31 Oct 2014 | 11:11 pm
    Yves here. This discussion with Michael Hudson on RT focuses on the real meaning of the Ukraine-Russia gas deal. One point that Hudson makes that readers might doubt is that Russia loves the US sanctions. I'm not sure "love" is the right word, but there is reason to think they aren't working out as the US had hoped. First, they've greatly increased Putin's popularity. Even the intelligentsia in Moscow, who were hostile to him, have largely rallied to his side in the face of foreign bullying. Second, the Western press may be overstating the amount of damage done to the economy by the…
  • Romer and Romer vs. Reinhart and Rogoff

    Real Time Economics
    Justin Lahart
    31 Oct 2014 | 12:55 pm
    Christina Romer Andrew Harrer Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff’s 2009 publication of “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly” was a well-timed look at recessions following financial crises. It argued such downturns tend to be severe and long lasting. But new research by former Council of Economic Advisers Chairwoman Christina Romer and her husband David Romer, both of the University of California, Berkeley, questions whether this is necessarily true. Both are widely seen as leading authorities on the history of monetary and fiscal policy. Identifying financial…
  • That Shrinking Slice of a Barely Growing Pie: Why the Glorious Economy of Ours Feels so Crummy

    naked capitalism
    Yves Smith
    1 Nov 2014 | 12:13 am
    ves here. There's one thing to add to Richter's useful recap of what the supposedly sparkling 3Q GDP results mean for those of us who live in the real economy. The GDP deflator fell from 2.1% in the second quarter to 1.3% this quarter, so some of the rosiness of the results was due to the swing in the deflator.
  • DealBook: Discovery of JPMorgan Cyberattack Aided by Company That Runs Race Website

    NYT > International Business
    By MATTHEW GOLDSTEIN and NICOLE PERLROTH
    31 Oct 2014 | 8:56 pm
    A small Michigan company that runs the website for the JPMorgan Chase Corporate Challenge played a role in helping the bank find the breach of its computer system this summer.
  • Another Eurozone Crisis Ahead?

    Alpha.Sources
    CV
    19 Oct 2014 | 5:52 am
    Calamities happen in financial markets, and usually when investors least expect and are least prepared for it. In the euro area, weak growth in the past six months and the inability of the ECB's measures to turn asset markets arounds have led investors to, once again, revisit their sovereign debt crisis playbooks.  This is understandable, but also now raises a fundamental question. If we are about to tumble into round 2 (or 3?) of the sovereign debt crisis, Eurozone bears may still prevail holding on to the recent trend in equities. But if we are not, the only trade that currently makes…
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    Real Time Economics

  • Romer and Romer vs. Reinhart and Rogoff

    Justin Lahart
    31 Oct 2014 | 12:55 pm
    Christina Romer Andrew Harrer Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff’s 2009 publication of “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly” was a well-timed look at recessions following financial crises. It argued such downturns tend to be severe and long lasting. But new research by former Council of Economic Advisers Chairwoman Christina Romer and her husband David Romer, both of the University of California, Berkeley, questions whether this is necessarily true. Both are widely seen as leading authorities on the history of monetary and fiscal policy. Identifying financial…
  • U.S. Gas Prices to Fall Below $3 a Gallon This Weekend

    Ben Leubsdorf
    31 Oct 2014 | 12:55 pm
    Gas prices at an Arco gas station this week in Mill Valley, Calif. Getty Images The average gallon of gasoline will cost less than $3 this weekend for the first time in nearly four years. The national average price of regular gas has been above $3 per gallon since December 2010, a 1,409-day streak that will end Saturday, the auto club AAA said Friday. The price had already fallen below $3 a gallon at a majority of gas stations across the U.S. Falling gas prices should be a boon for U.S. consumers and retailers headed into the holiday shopping season, though household spending unexpectedly…
  • Why Hasn’t Inflation Picked Up in Japan?

    Alexander Martin
    31 Oct 2014 | 12:26 pm
    The government and the Bank of Japan hope wage growth will eventually filter through the economy and start a virtuous cycle of higher private spending and increased production and investment. Reuters The Kuroda Bazooka fired again on Friday when the Bank of Japan expanded its already massive easing program for the first time in over a year and a half, reflecting its concern that the recent weakness in the economy may endanger its efforts to overcome deflation. The central bank also cut its closely watched inflation projection after the government earlier in the day released data that showed…
  • Fed’s Lacker Tells Bloomberg Radio U.S. Can Take Rate Rises Well

    Michael S. Derby
    31 Oct 2014 | 11:34 am
    Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, says rate-hike timing depends on the economy. Bloomberg News Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker shrugged off weak inflation readings and said the U.S. economy can easily deal with central bank interest rate increases when they arrive. In an interview on Bloomberg Radio Friday, the official said he didn’t think the risk of raising rates too early is “gigantic” for the economy. He didn’t say he would like to see short-term rates boosted off of near-zero levels soon, however, and explained the…
  • 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

    Eric Morath
    31 Oct 2014 | 11:29 am
    October’s jobs report headlines next week’s economic data. Market observers will be watching to see if the U.S. can continue a streak of impressive job creation.
 
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    naked capitalism

  • That Shrinking Slice of a Barely Growing Pie: Why the Glorious Economy of Ours Feels so Crummy

    Yves Smith
    1 Nov 2014 | 12:13 am
    ves here. There's one thing to add to Richter's useful recap of what the supposedly sparkling 3Q GDP results mean for those of us who live in the real economy. The GDP deflator fell from 2.1% in the second quarter to 1.3% this quarter, so some of the rosiness of the results was due to the swing in the deflator.
  • Michael Hudson: Europe to Pay for the Whole Mess in Ukraine

    Yves Smith
    31 Oct 2014 | 11:11 pm
    Yves here. This discussion with Michael Hudson on RT focuses on the real meaning of the Ukraine-Russia gas deal. One point that Hudson makes that readers might doubt is that Russia loves the US sanctions. I'm not sure "love" is the right word, but there is reason to think they aren't working out as the US had hoped. First, they've greatly increased Putin's popularity. Even the intelligentsia in Moscow, who were hostile to him, have largely rallied to his side in the face of foreign bullying. Second, the Western press may be overstating the amount of damage done to the economy by the…
  • 2:00PM Water Cooler 10/31/14

    Lambert Strether
    31 Oct 2014 | 10:58 am
    Today's Water Cooler: 2014, party like it's 2010, Hong Kong and Ferguson, corruption and payola in New York, "Sex, drugs, and broomsticks."
  • Slugfest Over Taibbi Exodus From First Look Fails to Address Editorial Meddling Doubts

    Yves Smith
    31 Oct 2014 | 6:55 am
    As reader Christopher put it, this got ugly fast. Yesterday, Glenn Greenwald, Laura Poitras, Jeremy Schill, and John Cook issued a joint "inside story" on why Matt Taibbi left First Look. Let us note that it is pretty much unheard for journalists to report on personnel matters at their own employer, particularly so rapidly after a story breaks. The reason for the haste, and the focus on l'affaire Taibbi, appears to be to get out in front of an article coming out in New York Magazine about their patron, Pierre Omidyar. The real issue, as we discussed in our earlier post, is whether this…
  • Links 10/31/14

    Yves Smith
    31 Oct 2014 | 3:58 am
 
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    Alpha.Sources

  • Another Eurozone Crisis Ahead?

    CV
    19 Oct 2014 | 5:52 am
    Calamities happen in financial markets, and usually when investors least expect and are least prepared for it. In the euro area, weak growth in the past six months and the inability of the ECB's measures to turn asset markets arounds have led investors to, once again, revisit their sovereign debt crisis playbooks.  This is understandable, but also now raises a fundamental question. If we are about to tumble into round 2 (or 3?) of the sovereign debt crisis, Eurozone bears may still prevail holding on to the recent trend in equities. But if we are not, the only trade that currently makes…
  • Where Are My Foreign Assets When I Need Them?

    CV
    17 Sep 2014 | 8:15 am
    How do you show the challenge of the eurozone periphery in one chart? Well, it is difficult but the representation below is a good pick in my view. A structurally negative net foreign asset position is a very tough hurdle to overcome when in a currency union, saddled with poor demographics and need net external demand to boost national income. Think of the periphery as Japan and Germany without(!) the strong net foreign asset position.  These countries seem to have grown old before getting rich and without the ability to devalue in nominal terms, the outlook is not good.   …
  • The Italian Economy Remains Stuck ...

    CV
    15 Sep 2014 | 10:38 am
    Italy has the dubious honor of the being the first eurozone economy to re-enter recession after the decidedly tepid recovery since 2012. This is bad news for an economy struggling with steadily increasing government debt and no real solution on how to pay off its mounting liabilities. What is even worse is that it looks as if the economy is not about to exit its malaise anytime soon. Picture is courtesey of Pantheon Macroeconomics and has also been posted on Twitter.   
  • Weak economic data would test bonds in the periphery

    CV
    7 Aug 2014 | 1:50 am
    Volatility has engulfed the eurozone in the past few weeks, but bond markets remain a relative sea of calm. This could change quickly however, if the economic data in the periphery takes a serious turn for the worse. Given the absence of active balance sheet expansion at the ECB, Q3 PMIs have suddenly taken in critical importance   Picture is courtesey of Pantheon Macroeconomics and has also been posted on Twitter. 
  • Is the Euro Overvalued?

    CV
    16 Jul 2014 | 7:43 am
    Well, yes if you ask Mr. Draghi it is, but not if you look at fundamental long run charts. Looking at both the REER and the trade weighted index, the euro is currently bang on average. Obviously, the ECB would like a weaker currency, but the best way to reach that objective will probably be to do nothing. It is difficult to expect a weaker currency amid a cyclical recovery with strong portfolio inflows and a current account surplus.    ---  Pictures are courtesey of Pantheon Macroeconomics and have also been posted at Twitter. 
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    re: The Auditors

  • New At Forbes Online: The Precarious Financial Position Of The New York Times

    Francine
    29 Oct 2014 | 10:33 am
    I published some New York Times numbers over at Forbes.com, “Time Is Running Short For The New York Times”, in anticipation of the company’s 3Q earnings announcement on October 30. I plan to write a followup when we know if the company’s own predictions about its third quarter have come true. The Times telegraphed its expected 3Q results to the market on October 1 when it filed a notice with the SEC regarding upcoming staff voluntary buyouts that may convert to involuntary layoffs later. Anything can happen. More important than the third quarter is how the company…
  • Update: The Shoemaker’s Children… The Big Four And Their Own Broker-Dealers

    Francine
    27 Oct 2014 | 6:24 am
    Did you know that each of the Big Four audit firms and some of the next tier also run SEC-registered broker-dealers? Although they don’t hold customer money, yet, they do count on the capital from their own partners to fund them. Given the poor record the auditors, all of them, have auditing broker-dealers, you’d imagine that the Big Four would take special care to make sure the audits of their own firms followed all the rules all the time and were of the highest quality, beyond reproach. You’d be imagining wrong. Update:  One of my loyal lawyer readers asked the salient…
  • McKenna At Medium: Two New Columns For the Bull Market Collection

    Francine
    18 Oct 2014 | 4:50 pm
    You may have seen via my LinkedIn page that I’m back at Medium.com. (I posted for three months last year under the “By The Numbers” collection to help kick off the site.) This time I’m part of a group effort, edited by Evan Hanson called “Bull Market”. The team includes former Reuters finance blogger now Fusion editor Felix Salmon, MSNBC commentator Alexis Goldstein, and University of Connecticut law professor and blogger at The Baseline Scenario James Kwak. My first two posts are about taxes—offshore tax avoidance and Amazon’s allergic reaction to…
  • Speaking Engagements/Conferences

    Francine
    18 Oct 2014 | 4:40 am
    I’m on the road visiting universities, attending select conferences and forums and speaking to groups of all kinds. If you would like me to visit your university and your accounting/audit program, please write soon to lock in fall and winter dates. Contact me at fmckenna@mckennapartners.com to schedule a presentation at your university, conference, firm or for a private briefing. Coming Up: November 20-21, 2014, PCAOB Standing Advisory Group open meeting. Attending as media. Washington DC. December 3-4, 2014, Illinois CPA Society’s 2014 Accounting & Auditing Conference, Wednesday,…
  • 18-Year Old Anthony Canalungo Questions Herbalife, And PwC, On Exchange Rates

    Francine
    23 Sep 2014 | 4:55 pm
    Anthony Canalungo ( @Canalungo on Twitter) is an 18 year old college student and young investor that has been following the Herbalife story since 2012. He says he’s been a follower of Benjamin Graham since the age of 15 and describes himself predominantly as a value investor. He’s a member of Leaders Investment Club and is a founding member of a non-profit in his community. Anthony recently wrote a really interesting article about Herbalife’s financials in Venezuela that was posted on a blog called Quoth The Raven. In the post, Anthony raises an interesting issue that I have…
 
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    The American Prospect

  • How to Reduce the Voting Gap

    Sean McElwee
    31 Oct 2014 | 2:08 pm
    Over the last three decades, research suggests, the class bias of the voting public has increased dramatically. In the 2012 election, there was a 33 point gap between the turnout rate of the highest bracket ($150,000 or more) and the lowest bracket ($10,000 or less). My article explores the implications of this gap, but it’s also important to know the causes. Demos.org Registration: The first part of the problem is registration. One study finds, “state voter registration laws pose a substantial barrier” to the mobilization of low-income voters. We can see this in the Census data…
  • Electing Judges Is Insane

    Paul Waldman
    31 Oct 2014 | 11:50 am
    With a couple of minor exceptions, like a few local judgeships in Switzerland, the United States is the only country where judges are elected. Indeed, to the rest of the world, the idea of judges running for office—begging for money, airing attack ads against their opponents, thinking always about their next election even after they take the bench—is positively insane. And they're right. We've had elected judgeships for our entire history, but until the last few years, those elections were nothing like races for Congress or governorships. But those days are past—now not only are judges…
  • Are GOP Donors Going to Get Anything In Return For Their Millions?

    Paul Waldman
    31 Oct 2014 | 9:25 am
    If you're a liberal zillionaire who contributed lots of money this year to prevent a Republican takeover of the Senate, on Tuesday you're probably going to be pretty unhappy. Which is why, Ken Vogel of Politico reports, the people who run the groups through which all those millions are being channeled are rushing to reassure their donors that it was still money well spent. Which got me thinking about the conservative donors who are probably going to be celebrating next week. For some of them, Republican victories are an end in themselves, but others have a more specific agenda in mind. They…
  • Will Court Decision Against Voting Rights Advocates Shift Outcome in Georgia Senate Race?

    Evan Walker-Wells
    31 Oct 2014 | 7:42 am
    (AP Photo/David Tulis) nnie Laura Howard Stephens holds a Michelle Nunn sign at a rally for the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate before early voting at Fulton County's Adamsville Recreation Center on Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2014 in Atlanta. Nunn is running against Republican David Perdue.  This article originally appeared at Facing South, the website pubished by the Institute for Southern Studies. In the last couple weeks, polls on Georgia's races for U.S. Senate and governor have become closer and closer—so close, in fact, that a court decision on October 28 over allegedly missing voter…
  • U.S. Supreme Court Could Decide Nation Status of Jerusalem

    Gershom Gorenberg
    31 Oct 2014 | 5:31 am
    (Photo by Omer Messinger/NurPhoto/Sipa USA) (Sipa via AP Images) Israelis dance and wave national flags during the Jerusalem Day march on May 28, 2014, in a celebration marking the "unification" of Jerusalem after Israel took the city's east side from Jordan during the Six Days War in 1967. My children were born in Jerusalem—to be precise, in West Jerusalem. As dual citizens, they each have an Israeli passport and an American one. In the Israeli documents, their birthplace is listed as Israel. On their U.S. passports, on the line for place of birth, "Jerusalem" appears instead of the name…
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    Robert Reich

  • Empathy Deficit Disorder

    27 Oct 2014 | 7:46 pm
    Commenting on a recent student suicide at an Alaska high school, Alaska’s Republican Congressman Don...
  • Berkeley vs. Big Soda I got a call the other day from a stooge...

    22 Oct 2014 | 7:03 pm
    Berkeley vs. Big Soda I got a call the other day from a stooge of Big Soda who was doing a “push poll” — trying to get me and all my neighbors to vote against Berkeley’s proposed one-cent-per-ounce tax on sugary soft drinks. Big Soda is pulling out all the stops — and the money — to prevent the tax, because Big Soda knows that if it fails in Berkeley it can’t pass anywhere. Yet, just like tobacco, we know a small tax reduces consumption. And just like tobacco, consumption of sugary soft drinks is a huge health problem. One out of three American kids is obese and at risk of…
  • Getting a Grip on Ebola

    20 Oct 2014 | 5:06 pm
    We have to get a grip. Ebola is not a crisis in the United States. One person has died and two...
  • Why Government Spends More Per Pupil at Elite Private Universities than at Public Universities

    13 Oct 2014 | 11:26 am
    Imagine a system of college education supported by high and growing government spending on elite...
  • Why We Allow Big Pharma to Rip Us Off

    5 Oct 2014 | 6:43 pm
    According to a new federal database put online last week, pharmaceutical companies and device makers...
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    Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

  • For the Weekend: The Ultimate Halloween Movie Is: The Nightmare Before Christmas

    J. Bradford DeLong
    31 Oct 2014 | 3:29 pm
  • A Dialogue on Secular Stagnation: The Honest Broker for the Week of October 24, 2014

    J. Bradford DeLong
    31 Oct 2014 | 12:56 pm
    ###Secular Stagnation### Princeps Cogitationis: If I am going to hold down my consulting and speech-making jobs, I need to understand what Larry Summers is talking about here: Larry Summers: What to do about secular stagnation? But it is too long! 3000 words! Help! What can I do? Oeconomicarus: But I thought you read 300 books a year? Princeps Cogitationis: I read the last chapter of 300 books a year. Then I read three short reviews of each. And then I opine fearlessly. Working through a difficult 3000-word argument and assessing it is not a good use of my time. READ MOAR Oeconomicarus: So…
  • For Halloween: Ruth Baby Ginsburg

    J. Bradford DeLong
    31 Oct 2014 | 8:39 am
  • Liveblogging the American Revolution: October 31, 1776: George III Hanover

    J. Bradford DeLong
    31 Oct 2014 | 8:17 am
    George III Hanover: His Majesty’s Most Gracious Speech to Both Houses of Parliament on Thursday, October 31, 1776: " My Lords, and Gentlemen, Nothing could have afforded Me so much satisfaction as to have been able to inform you, at the opening of this session, that the troubles, which have so long distracted my colonies in North America, were at an end; and that My unhappy people, recovered from their delusion, had delivered themselves from the oppression of their leaders, and returned to their duty. But so daring and desperate is the spirit of those leaders, whose object has always been…
  • Noted for Your Afternoon Procrastination for October 30, 2014

    J. Bradford DeLong
    30 Oct 2014 | 9:24 am
    Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog Suppose-Counterfactual World-That the U.S. Had Avoided Large-Scale QE since the Start of 2010... - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Over at Project Syndicate: Material Well-Being in America since 1979: (Early) Thursday Focus for October 30, 2014 - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Lunchtime Must Read: Jonathan Chait: Yellen Mentions Inequality; Right Scandalized - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Lunchtime Must-Read: Jon Hilsenrath: Fed Critics Have Been Wrong.... Time to Declare the Debate Over - Washington Center for Equitable Growth…
 
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    Calculated Risk

  • Friday Night: Kudlow makes me laugh ... again!

    Bill McBride
    31 Oct 2014 | 6:08 pm
    Larry Kudlow wrote an absurd piece at CNBC today.Of course Kudlow is usually wrong and frequently absurd ... as an example, in June 2005 Kudlow wrote "The Housing Bears are Wrong Again" and called me (or people like me) "bubbleheads".Homebuilders led the stock parade this week with a fantastic 11 percent gain. This is a group that hedge funds and bubbleheads love to hate. All the bond bears have been dead wrong in predicting sky-high mortgage rates. So have all the bubbleheads who expect housing-price crashes in Las Vegas or Naples, Florida, to bring down the consumer, the rest of the…
  • Q3 GDP: Investment Contributions

    Bill McBride
    31 Oct 2014 | 2:31 pm
    This is one of my favorite GDP graphs. The graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy. In the graph, red is residential, green is equipment and software, and blue is investment in non-residential structures. So the usual pattern - both into and out of recessions is - red, green, blue.The…
  • Q3 2014 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate

    Bill McBride
    31 Oct 2014 | 11:30 am
    The BEA has released the underlying details for the Q3 advance GDP report today.Investment in single family structures is now back to being the top category for residential investment (see first graph).  Home improvement was the top category for twenty one consecutive quarters following the housing bust ... but now investment in single family structures is the top category once again.However - even though investment in single family structures has increased from the bottom - single family investment is still very low, and still below the bottom for previous recessions. I expect further…
  • Preliminary: 2015 Housing Forecasts

    Bill McBride
    31 Oct 2014 | 8:32 am
    The NAHB released their 2015 housing forecast today. Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year, and it looks like most analysts are optimistic for 2015.Here is a summary of forecasts for 2014. In 2014, new home sales will be around 440 thousand, and total housing starts will be close to 1 million.  No one was close on New Home sales (all way too optimistic), and Michelle Meyer (Merrill Lynch) and Fannie Mae were the closest on housing starts (about 10% too high).In 2014, many analysts underestimated the impact of higher mortgage rates and higher…
  • Final October Consumer Sentiment at 86.9, Chicago PMI increases to 66.2

    Bill McBride
    31 Oct 2014 | 6:03 am
    Click on graph for larger image.The final Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for October was at 86.9, up from the preliminary reading of 86.4, and up from 84.6 in September.This was slightly above the consensus forecast of 86.4. Sentiment has generally been improving following the recession - with plenty of ups and downs - and a big spike down when Congress threatened to "not pay the bills" in 2011.This was the highest level since 2007.Chicago PMI October 2014: Chicago Business Barometer Up 5.7 Points to 66.2 in October, New Orders Rise Sharply to the Highest Since…
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    Crooked Timber

  • Brands of Nonsense

    John Quiggin
    30 Oct 2014 | 10:28 pm
    That’s the title of a piece of mine the Chronicle of Higher Education ran a little while ago. It’s paywalled but they have graciously given me permission to republish it here. A little while ago, the University of Warwick was in the news for all the wrong reasons. Its longstanding legal firm, SGH Martineau, put up a blog post suggesting that universities should take action against “insubordinate” academics with “outspoken opinions.” The firm stressed the importance of making an example of offenders whose academic work was “brilliant,”…
  • Big Brother’s Liberal Friends

    Henry
    27 Oct 2014 | 2:38 pm
    I’ve an article in the new issue of The National Interest looking at various liberal critiques of Snowden and Greenwald, and finding them wanting. CT readers will have seen some of the arguments in earlier form; I think that they’re stronger when they are joined together (and certainly they should be better written; it’s nice to have the time to write a proper essay). I don’t imagine that the various people whom I take on will be happy, but they shouldn’t be; they’re guilty of some quite wretched writing and thinking. More than anything else, like Corey…
  • Farewell to all that

    Maria
    26 Oct 2014 | 12:39 pm
    The Union Jack came down in Camp Bastion today, marking the end of the UK’s combat role in Afghanistan and its misconceived campaign in Helmand Province; the campaign with no strategy, less chance of success and a gossamer-thin plan. It has come to a dignified end with a choir of establishment generals (is there any other kind?) and politicians serenely harmonising the nation’s oldest hymns; ‘mistakes were made’, and ‘perhaps we might have done it differently’. Nineteen billion pounds. Twenty thousand Afghan civilians. Four hundred and fifty three UK…
  • Grossman’s Life and Fate

    Chris Bertram
    26 Oct 2014 | 12:35 pm
    The past year has been one of reading long books. Naguib Mahfouz’s Cairo Trilogy, War and Peace, and, on the back of the latter Vasily Grossman’s Life and Fate. I’m still digesting. Is Life and Fate the greatest Russian novel of the past century? I don’t know, and it seems like an invidious question. But great it certainly is. Not so much for the writing — at least in translation Grossman’s prose is, well, prosaic — but for it breadth of vision, its humanism, its psychological insight and for Grossman’s courage in facing up to inconvenient facts…
  • Sunday photoblogging: Saguaro cactus

    Chris Bertram
    26 Oct 2014 | 1:13 am
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    Dealbreaker

  • Write-Offs: 10.31.14

    Dealbreaker
    31 Oct 2014 | 2:34 pm
    $$$ “One reporter publicly confirmed that a CEO of a top 5 bank personally emailed him the lurid details of the lawsuit, and we also have heard directly from other reporters that they also are getting information and encouragement to pile on from some of our competitors.” [Jefferies] $$$ Trick or treat at this billionaire’s… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.
  • Jefferies Management Letting Clean Urine Samples Do The Talking

    Bess Levin
    31 Oct 2014 | 1:00 pm
    As you may have heard, this week has been a tough one for Team Jefferies. Not only for Global Healthcare Head Sage Kelly– who took a voluntary leave of absence yesterday– but for other senior members of the bank, who’ve either been named in the complaint filed by Kelly’s soon-to-be ex-wife or simply felt embarrassment… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: Christina Di Mauro Kelly, drug tests, Jefferies, Richard Handler, Sage Kelly
  • UBS Probably Not Going To Get Close To What It Wants From Nasdaq For Facebook F*ck Up

    Bess Levin
    31 Oct 2014 | 12:21 pm
    Based on a judge’s ruling today. A divided U.S. appeals court rejected UBS AG’s bid to force Nasdaq OMX Group Inc to arbitrate a dispute over the exchange operator’s alleged “catastrophic mismanagement” of Facebook Inc’s $16 billion initial public offering. The 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New York on Friday said UBS’ agreement… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: catastrophic mismanagement, FaceBook, fuck-ups, IPOs, NASDAQ, UBS
  • In The Future, You’ll Receive An Electric Shock Before Competing In An Office-Wide Food Eating Challenge

    Bess Levin
    31 Oct 2014 | 11:23 am
    On the seventh floor of a concrete office building in Washington, a government worker stops to contemplate a purchase from the vending machine. Then his phone vibrates. An alert on the screen suggests he pass on the Twinkies today. This guinea pig, among a group of employees at the U.S. Department of Health and Human… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: at Goldman it'll be a prerecorded Lloyd saying "A moment on the lips forever on the hips", food eating challenges, reminders, Vending Machine Challenge, you sure you want to go there?
  • Jefferies Exec Sage Kelly (Allegedly!) Lets Analysts Deal With His 28k Strip Club Tabs

    Bess Levin
    31 Oct 2014 | 11:10 am
    As you may have heard, Jefferies Global Healthcare Head Sage Kelly is currently taking a time out from investment banking, following allegations made by his estranged wife Christina that include but are not limited to Sage: holding a “Mushrooms Day” for colleagues in the Hamptons; developing his relationship with a client by having sex with… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: bladder control or lack thereof, Christina Di Mauro Kelly, Jefferies, Sage Kelly, Scores, tabs, what the hell is with this guy and (allegedly!) being…
 
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    Econbrowser

  • Mind the (Output) Gap

    Menzie Chinn
    31 Oct 2014 | 9:08 pm
    Yesterday’s advance GDP release for 2014Q3, covered by Jim, was welcome news, and was something Jeff Frieden and I predicted at the beginning of the year [1]. However, while growth seems to be firming, it is far too soon to take away stimulus. Figure 1 shows that the degree of economic slack remains large. The Output Gap Remains Figure 1: Output gap (blue) and projected using August 2014 CBO projection. Source: BEA, 2014Q3 advance, CBO An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014-2024 (August 2014). The current output gap is 3.6% (log terms); this is larger in absolute value than…
  • Solid GDP report

    James_Hamilton
    30 Oct 2014 | 9:45 am
    The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.5% annual rate in the third quarter. That combines with a 4.6% annual growth rate now reported for the second quarter, giving us an average growth rate for the last six months that is solidly above the postwar average. U.S. real GDP growth at an annual rate, 1947:Q2-2014:3. Blue horizontal line is drawn at the historical average (3.1%). Almost all the components of GDP contributed, with solid gains in consumption, nonresidential fixed investment, and government spending. Even imports were down and exports were up,…
  • Philadelphia Fed: Wisconsin and Kansas Growth Gaps Forecasted to Increase

    Menzie Chinn
    29 Oct 2014 | 1:14 pm
    And California and Minnesota surge ahead of the US. I know this sounds like a broken record, but the numbers are the numbers. And reader Patrick R. Sullivan suggests I move to Kansas, based on a Tax Foundation analysis (the same Patrick R. Sullivan who refuses to admit that his assertion that the depth of the downturn in Canada was less than that in the US during the Great Depression is wrong.) Here’s at least one reason why I don’t plan to. From today’s release of leading indices by the Philadelphia Fed, combined with last week’s release of coincident indices. Figure…
  • Ed Lazear Comments on Government Forecasts

    Menzie Chinn
    27 Oct 2014 | 6:53 pm
    Or, the self-rehabilitation effort continues. In a WSJ op-ed entitled “Government Forecasters Might as Well Use a Ouija Board”, he writes: My analysis of 1999-2013 reveals that the CBO’s real GDP growth forecasts for the next year were off, on average, by 1.7 percentage points, either too high or low. Administration forecasts were similarly off by a slightly larger 1.8 percentage points on average, also to high or too low. Given that the average growth rate during this period was only 2.1%, errors of this magnitude are substantial. Perhaps most damning: History is a better…
  • Conference in San Francisco

    James_Hamilton
    26 Oct 2014 | 8:03 am
    I’m a little late in mentioning a wonderful conference in San Francisco last month. Thanks so much to Oscar Jorda and Francisco Ruge-Murcia for organizing the event and to all those who participated to help make this a truly exceptional gathering. Here’s a link to some photos from the event.
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    EconLog: Library of Economics and Liberty

  • About That 97 Percent

    David Henderson
    31 Oct 2014 | 1:35 pm
    (October 31, 2014 01:35 PM, by David Henderson) I've posted before (here and here) about the John Cook study that purports to find that 97% of climate scientists believe that humans are the main cause of global warming. Now Richard Tol, a professor of the economics of climate... (9 COMMENTS)
  • Does Identity Politics Pay?

    Bryan Caplan
    31 Oct 2014 | 12:03 am
    (October 31, 2014 12:03 AM, by Bryan Caplan) When I scoff at group identity, critics often call me naive.  Won't anyone who heeds my advice to eschew identity politics end up being victimized by all the folks who do take their group identities with utmost seriousness?  Then rational... (11 COMMENTS)
  • Supply and demand-side stagnation

    Scott Sumner
    30 Oct 2014 | 11:44 am
    (October 30, 2014 11:44 AM, by Scott Sumner) Tyler Cowen often has posts entitled "A very good sentence." Here Tyler dishes up one of his own: Yes, it is a big mistake to assume Say's Law always holds but it is an even bigger mistake to think it... (19 COMMENTS)
  • The Identity of Shame

    Bryan Caplan
    30 Oct 2014 | 12:24 am
    (October 30, 2014 12:24 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Every large, unselective group includes some villains.  Say whatever you like about the average moral caliber of Christians, atheists, Democrats, Republicans, plumbers, comic book fans, or Albanians.  The fact remains that each of these groups contains some awful people.  While... (13 COMMENTS)
  • Henderson on Minimum Wage for Prager University

    David Henderson
    29 Oct 2014 | 12:24 am
    (October 29, 2014 12:24 AM, by David Henderson) Prager University has published a beautiful graphic-filled video on the minimum wage with me as the "talent." You can see it here or here.... (19 COMMENTS)
 
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    Economist's View

  • Fed Watch: Another Kocherlakota Dissent

    Mark Thoma
    31 Oct 2014 | 12:53 pm
    Tim Duy: Another Kocherlakota Dissent, by Tim Duy: Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Narayana Kocherlakota released a statement regarding his dissenting vote at this week's FOMC meeting. He does not share his colleagues faith that inflation will return to target anytime soon: ...In my assessment, the medium-term outlook for inflation has shown no overall improvement since last December and, indeed, is arguably worse. Failing to act in response to this subdued inflation outlook increases the downside risk to the credibility of our 2 percent inflation target. Market-based measures of…
  • Paul Krugman: Apologizing to Japan

    Mark Thoma
    31 Oct 2014 | 12:15 am
    What are the lessons we should learn from Japan?: Apologizing to Japan, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: For almost two decades, Japan has been held up as ... an object lesson on how not to run an advanced economy. After all, the island nation is the rising superpower that stumbled. One day, it seemed, it was on the road to high-tech domination of the world economy; the next it was suffering from seemingly endless stagnation and deflation. And Western economists were scathing in their criticisms of Japanese policy. I was one of those critics... And these days, I often find myself…
  • Links for 10-31-14

    Mark Thoma
    31 Oct 2014 | 12:06 am
    Economic Lessons Not Learned - NYTimes.com In praise of macroeconomists (or at least one of them) - mainly macro Wikipedia: The value of open content production - Vox EU Inflation? Deflation Is New Risk - NYTimes.com Did the Federal Reserve Do QE Backwards? - Mike Konczal Oikonomia, Revisited - Tim Taylor Diversity in Economics - Janet Yellen Google's Analysis of Japan - Paul Krugman Will somebody please think of the Data Generating Process! - Nick Rowe Email is - Digitopoly Give Me Some Crowding-Out - Gloomy European Economist
  • 'BEA: Real GDP increased at 3.5% Annualized Rate in Q3'

    Mark Thoma
    30 Oct 2014 | 7:22 am
     Calculated Risk: BEA: Real GDP increased at 3.5% Annualized Rate in Q3: From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2014 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2014, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.6 percent. ... The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions…
  • Fed Watch: FOMC Recap

    Mark Thoma
    30 Oct 2014 | 12:24 am
    Tim Duy: FOMC Recap, by Tim Duy: In broad terms, the FOMC meeting concluded as I had expected. To the extent there were any surprises, they were on the hawkish side. Or, I would say, hawkish mostly if you believed the events of the last few weeks justified a radical revision of the Fed's anticipated policy path. I didn't, but was too busy those same past few weeks to scream into the wind. As I anticipated, the Fed dismissed the decline in market-based inflation expectations. They clearly believe financial markets over-reacted to the decline in oil prices, and that that decline would…
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    EconTalk

  • Continuing Conversation... Robert Solow on Growth and the State of Economics

    Amy Willis
    29 Oct 2014 | 8:39 am
    Nobel laureate and emeritus professor at MIT Robert Solow sat down with EconTalk host Russ Roberts this week to discuss growth theory and the challenges of macroeconomics. Now let's hear from you. Use the prompts below for comments here at EconTalk, or use them to start your own conversations offline. We love to hear from you. Going Deeper: 1. When describing his work in growth theory, Solow insists that we must think about the "varying capital intensity of growth." What does he mean by this, and what does it suggest about varying economies' potential for growth? 2. How does Solow describe…
  • Robert Solow on Growth and the State of Economics

    Russell Roberts
    27 Oct 2014 | 3:30 am
    Robert Solow, Professor Emeritus at Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Nobel Laureate, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his hugely influential theory of growth and inspiration to create a model that better reflected the stable long-term growth of an economy. Solow contends that capital accumulation cannot explain a significant portion of the economic growth we see. He makes a critical distinction between innovation and technology, and then discusses his views on Milton Friedman and John M. Keynes. Play Time: 1:02:06 How do I listen to a podcast? Download Size:28.5 MB…
  • Continuing Conversation... Luigi Zingales on Incentives and the Potential Capture of Economists by Special Interests

    Amy Willis
    21 Oct 2014 | 10:09 am
    This week, Russ Roberts welcomed back University of Chicago's Luigi Zingales to talk about a recent essay in which Zingales argues that economists are subject to many of the same sorts of biases as regulators because of the incentives they face. And now we want to hear from you. Use the following questions to reflect on this episode, assign them to students in your class, use them to strike up conversation at your next social gathering. No matter how, we love to hear from you. Check Your Knowledge: 1. What is "regulatory capture," and how can academic economists be similarly "captured," even…
  • Luigi Zingales on Incentives and the Potential Capture of Economists by Special Interests

    Russell Roberts
    20 Oct 2014 | 3:30 am
    Luigi Zingales of the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about Zingales's essay, "Preventing Economists' Capture." Zingales argues that just as regulators become swayed by the implicit incentives of dealing with industry executives, so too with economists who study business: supporting business interests can be financially and professionally rewarding. Zingales outlines the different ways that economists benefit from supporting business interests and ways that economists might work to prevent that influence or at lease be aware of it. Play…
  • Continuing Conversation... Russ Roberts and Mike Munger on How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life

    Amy Willis
    14 Oct 2014 | 6:06 pm
    This week, there was a new sheriff in town! Russ Roberts was the guest in this week's episode, while EconTalk fave Mike Munger stood in as interviewer. The subject was Roberts's new book, How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life. Whether your life changes have already happened or are still pending, we want to hear from you. Use the prompts below to share your thoughts in the comments, use them as a classroom assignment, or use them to spark conversation at a cocktail party. But do let us know your thoughts; we love to hear from you. Check Your Knowledge: 1. How does Roberts distinguish between…
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    Environmental Economics

  • Global Warming My Butt

    Tim Haab
    31 Oct 2014 | 12:11 pm
  • "Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis Moves to Cambridge University Press"

    John Whitehead
    31 Oct 2014 | 6:43 am
    From the inbox: Beginning in 2015, Cambridge University Press will be publishing the Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis on behalf of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis. In an announcement, Cambridge University Press noted that “[t]his new partnership marks a rebranding of the journal in terms of both appearance and reach, reinforcing the journal’s position as an authority on analytical practice of benefit-cost analysis. For the first time the journal will benefit from online before print publication on FirstView and improved article functionality in terms of enhanced HTML and mobile…
  • "Which Marvel Superhero Could Run a University?"

    John Whitehead
    31 Oct 2014 | 5:15 am
    Three PhDs? What about the opportunity cost of time spent in school? Or did he get all three simultaneously? Right off the bat, you can count out Robert B. Banner, otherwise known as the Hulk. While Mr. Banner has three Ph.D.’s from the California Institute of Technology, at some point he’s bound to go berserk and lay waste to half the Faculty Senate. That’s a PR disaster. A PR disaster maybe, but definitely a tempting scenario. There's more here.
  • Zombie apocalypse

    John Whitehead
    31 Oct 2014 | 5:10 am
    With that title we're trying to boost our traffic and maybe even get Typepad to crash: In 2011 Steven Schlozman, an assistant professor of psychiatry at Harvard Medical School, went on a late-night radio show and said he had recently discovered a paper about a mysterious disease, called Ataxic Neurodegenerative Satiety Deficiency syndrome, written by a doctor from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who had died before having the chance to publish it. According to the paper, "ANSD" destroyed the frontal lobe while leaving the amygdala intact, essentially transforming…
  • I'm not a scientist but Chile might implement a carbon tax

    John Whitehead
    30 Oct 2014 | 8:05 am
    Thank goodness that "low cost electricity" is not the penultimate goal in some parts of the world: These are rough times for carbon taxes, aimed at mitigating climate change. Australia recently repealed its carbon tax. South Korea delayed a carbon-based tax on vehicle emissions. South Africa put off a planned carbon tax until 2016. And yet, for environmentalists, a sliver of hope exists in the shape of Chile, one of Latin America’s fastest-growing economies, which last month approved the first carbon tax in South America. The measure, due to take effect in 2018, was part of a…
 
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    footnoted*

  • What’s $8m to Google?

    Michelle Leder
    24 Oct 2014 | 6:10 am
    For most of us, $8 million is a lot of money. But for a company the size of Google, it’s probably safe to say that it’s the equivalent of sofa change. Still, even we were surprised by this exhibit attached to the 10-Q that Google filed yesterday. In the letter, which was dated July 18, 2014, Google agreed to forgive an $8m cash award that former Chief Business Officer Nikesh Arora was supposed to pay back within 30 days if he left the company prior to April 25, 2015. The condition was spelled out pretty clearly in this letter dated April 27, 2012. In that letter, the company said…
  • GT Technologies warned in August

    Michelle Leder
    10 Oct 2014 | 11:54 am
    There’s been a lot of hand-wringing over the past few days about GT Technologies, which as most people know, filed for bankruptcy earlier this week. In the press release, CEO Tom Guttierez said that “today’s filing does not mean we are going out of business; rather, it provides us with the opportunity to continue to execute our business plan on a stronger footing, maintain operations of our diversified business, and improve our balance sheet.” Investors didn’t quite see things that way. The stock declined over 90% on Monday and has spent the past few days…
  • Comment letter ahead of BofA’s $8M Fine

    Murti Bhattiprolu
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:00 am
    Yesterday, the SEC announced a $7.65m fine for Bank of America Corp. related to internal controls deficiencies and regulatory capital misstatements related to complex securities it bought as part of its acquisition of Merrill Lynch in 2009. What’s surprising is that a comment letter that was made public earlier this month previewed this. In that letter, the SEC said it was concerned with the company’s disclosure about revisions to regulatory capital amounts and ratios in its first-quarter report, which we flagged for footnotedPro subscribers on May 1. We thought it was…
  • An unusually special award at Sigma-Aldrich

    Michelle Leder
    26 Sep 2014 | 6:02 am
    Earlier this week, there was big news in big-pharma when the German pharmaceutical giant Merck KGaA announced plans to buy Sigma-Aldrich Corp. for $17 billion. The $140 a share price represented a 37% premium to Sigma-Aldrich’s closing price. Since that announcement on Monday, Sigma-Aldrich has filed 16 separate documents with the SEC, or somewhere north of 400 pages — from the transcript of the post-announcement call to the Powerpoint presentation to something called employee talking points, which was presumably designed by HR-types to reassure employees that they still have a…
  • Evertec execs line up to enjoy Puerto Rican tax holiday

    Michelle Leder
    18 Sep 2014 | 5:59 am
    You’ve probably heard (or at least read) about the new law in Puerto Rico. Just two weeks ago, the New York Times noted that former “hedge fund honcho” — their words, not ours — Alex Lemond had decamped there to take advantage of a change in the tax code that benefits wealthy newcomers to the island. A more recent development — known by its formal name of Act 77, which was signed into law at the beginning of July — provides additional benefits to income generated from options. (This memo from Deloitte provides a good overview of what’s otherwise…
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    HBR Blog Network - Harvard Business Review » Umair Haque

  • 3 Terrible Strategies for Companies Seeking Growth

    Umair Haque
    6 Oct 2014 | 6:00 am
    Some call it a depression. Some call it a never-ending recession. Some call it a disconnect or a decoupling. Some call it a not-quite recovery. Here’s the truth. Econ doesn’t have a word for whatever we’re in…because whatever we’re in flouts the so-called laws of economics. Quarterly results look great; job growth is “up;” and financial markets are ebullient. So why are so many still worse off than they were before? Why hasn’t all this “growth” actually translated into a real feeling of prosperity? And – as so many CEOs would like to know – is there any way to make…
  • Apple Is More Like a Band than a Company

    Umair Haque
    25 Sep 2014 | 5:00 am
    You’d think by now more companies would have learned. The tech industry still churns out beige boxes. The fashion industry, misshaped sack-shaped objects it calls “clothing” that make adult humans look suspiciously like overgrown toddlers. The food industry…who knows what’s really in the preservative-flavored genetically mutated stuff that’s labeled “food”? All the endless stuff the developed world is drowning in — that we’re melting down the planet to produce — is, for the most part, as unexciting as it is unoriginal as it is uninspired as it is…
  • Our Economic Malaise Is Fueling Political Extremism

    Umair Haque
    5 Jun 2014 | 12:00 pm
    The head of the fourth biggest and fastest rising political party in the world’s second most powerful economy is a racist. An aide to the Prime Minister of one of the world’s most promising societies is caught on camera kicking a protestor to the ground. The world’s largest democracy proudly elects a man who rode a wave of religious extremism. The head of yet another is a man whose calls for ethnic purity are becoming more strident. And that’s leaving out the rise of extremist parties in Greece, the U.S., France, and elsewhere. What’s going on here? Here’s my…
  • Can You Be Too Rich?

    Umair Haque
    12 May 2014 | 6:00 am
    Is there such a thing as too rich? Like most reasonable people, I agree whole-heartedly that people who accomplish greater, worthier, nobler things should be rewarded more than those who don’t. I’m not the World’s Last Communist, shaking his fist atop Karl Marx’s grave at the very idea of riches. So. Perhaps I’ve asked an absurd question. Perhaps there’s no such thing as too rich — anywhere, ever. But try this thought experiment: Imagine that there’s a single person in the economy who is so rich he’s worth what everyone else is, combined. If there were such a person, he’d…
  • 5 Dirty Secrets About the U.S. Economy

    Umair Haque
    2 May 2014 | 9:00 am
    If there’s one thing I hate these days, it’s discussing the U.S. economy. Will raising wages by seventeen cents destroy humanity? Will edible deodorant add 0.000007 percent to GDP? If we resurrected giant man-eating dinosaurs, could we use them to keep our warehouse pickers in line? Isn’t it awesome when the Dow hits a record high (but everything else flatlines or shrinks)? I feel like I’m listening to a debate on the noble merits of true love between the Real Housewives and a bunch of broseph PUAs. By my count, there are five dirty secrets about the economy we’re not supposed to…
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    Free exchange

  • Important, shocking, but lacking

    C.W. | LONDON
    28 Oct 2014 | 9:08 am
    UNICEF, a branch of the United Nations, has just released an interesting report on child poverty during the Great Recession. The report’s results have been reported widely and are distressing. It shows that since 2008 2.6 million children in rich countries have sunk below the poverty line. In 23 of the 41 countries analysed, child poverty has jumped since 2008. In Ireland, Croatia, Latvia, Greece and Iceland rates rose by over 50%.Change in child poverty, 2008 to 2012 (anchored in 2008)I should say at the outset that I am generally convinced by what I’ve read in this report. It is a very…
  • A mixed bill of health

    Economist.com
    27 Oct 2014 | 2:04 pm
    THIS week: The European Central Bank's health-check of big European banks and the state of American business 
  • Putting the boot in development

    C.W. | LONDON
    27 Oct 2014 | 10:50 am
    I’VE STUMBLED across an interesting paper, which looks at the economic impact of TOMS Shoes. When you buy a pair of TOMS, they give another pair to an impoverished child. TOMS has come under a fair amount of criticism for what it does, including a bombastic Marxist take from Slavoj Žižek, a Slovenian philosopher.Economists have also waded in to the debate. Dambisa Moyo, one economist, suggests that aid can end up replacing local markets, thereby hindering development. Another looked at used-clothes imports to Africa and concluded that they provoked a
  • The human-driven driverless car

    R.A. | LONDON
    23 Oct 2014 | 3:02 am
    TECHNOLOGY companies from Google to Audi have made remarkable strides in autonomous vehicle technology over the past few years. This progress is the more impressive given the fact that a decade ago technologists considered driving to be a near un-automatable task. Despite the extraordinary pace of improvement, however, driverless cars still attract plenty of sceptics.Some reckon that regulators and lawyers will keep the cars from reaching their full potential. They might do, though many local governments have been surprisingly open to crafting rules to accommodate the new driverless vehicles.
  • A market unto itself

    S.R., C.C.W. | SHANGHAI, HONG KONG
    21 Oct 2014 | 4:58 am
    AMID the sell-off in global equities over the past month, one market has made for an unlikely safe haven. While American, European and Japanese stock indices have fallen by roughly 5-9% since late September, Chinese stocks have been flat. For a market that often resembles a casino, looking to Chinese stocks for stability might seem a bizarre strategy. But there is one big factor to recommend China as a hedge against other markets: low correlations. That is, stockmarkets elsewhere in the world have little influence on China, and China’s stockmarket, in turn, has little influence on the rest…
 
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    Hedge fund

  • Best hedge fund

    Veryan Allen
    28 Oct 2014 | 11:08 am
    Just visited the office of world's best ever hedge fund. Performance needs mean I must do due diligence at all top SKILL BASED managers. I define "top" by risk adjusted returns not AUM. Steep losses and high volatility are what market "averages" deliver every few years. TIME in drawdowns is NEVER recovered by investors.YOUR money is too important to be risked on the average. I prefer talent that delivers INDEPENDENTLY of market direction. Though rare, skill can be detected with thorough analysis. For asset classes, history is rarely forward looking. Bet on horses and lose years of gains in…
  • Skill strategies

    Veryan Allen
    26 Oct 2014 | 4:08 pm
    Invest in skilled people. Market "averages" are too risky. Past returns predict the future if the manager has talent and dedication. A single counterexample suffices to destroy efficient market dogma. Hedge fund managers Warren Buffett and George Soros only invest in skill strategies. Why avoid the best? Why risk YOUR MONEY on an "average"?Warren Buffett focuses on absolute return investing and leverage, arbitrage, derivatives, event-driven, activist, distressed, opportunistic and global macro strategies have driven MOST of his returns since inception. Too many investors…
  • Active or passive

    Veryan Allen
    9 Oct 2014 | 4:58 pm
    Active or passive? Index funds are just unskilled low frequency trading strategies with horrific drawdowns and abysmal risk adjusted returns. Active is the only option in the REAL world because "passive" funds track active decisions of index construction firms. Should you risk your life savings on lists of stocks or hard working talent that actually earns its fees? Name ANY business where passive worked in the long term.Choosing WHICH index is an active decision requiring skill. Prudent men invest in skill. If you think the best stock pickers work at Standard and Poor's, invest…
  • Low cost or low risk?

    Veryan Allen
    8 Oct 2014 | 6:47 am
    The market is efficient, apparently so security analysis is pointless? According to Jack Bogle, hedge fund managers like Warren Buffett and Jim Simons are just lucky monkeys. Bogle claims to be able to predict the long term future and urges you to gamble on his clairvoyance. Embrace the average as there is no skill! Expense ratios must be judged against net risk-adjusted returns and index funds have poor performance compared to skill strategies. Name any industry where the "average" succeeds.Jack Bogle steals investors' precious time waiting years for unanalyzed lists of stocks to rise.
  • Arbitrage hedge fund

    Veryan Allen
    7 Oct 2014 | 7:22 am
    Arbitrage? There's more DUMB MONEY invested in the markets than ever before. So there are MORE opportunities for alpha. Economics professors claim there is no such thing as arbitrage as it supposedly would be copied and eliminated! They are wrong. If you have the work ethic, intelligence and resources there are many arbitrages on Wall Street. A common metaphor is that if a $100 bill is dropped in the street it would immediately be picked up therefore no arbitrage can persist. But what if YOU are the person that finds it? Someone will. What if you specialize in walking the streets 24/7/365…
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    Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up

  • Don't Blame IBM. Blame Wall Street

    Jeff Matthews
    20 Oct 2014 | 5:31 am
     Well the biggest stock-market levitation act since HP under Mark Hurd is going the way of all levitation acts: IBM is throwing in the towel on its $20 EPS "roadmap" (reportedly mocked as "roadkill" in some internal IBM quarters) and admitting what anybody with a calculator and the IBM 10Ks before them has understood for some time--it is exceedingly difficult to grow earnings regularly, not to mention with to-the-penny precision, when your sales are falling, hard, nearly everywhere, quarter after quarter...no matter how many people you lay off, how many "one-time" charges you take,…
  • Berkshire Hathaway: Wholesaler of Death?

    Jeff Matthews
    5 Sep 2014 | 1:41 pm
     Now that we have your attention with that admittedly provocative title, we are going to kill two birds with one stone here. Bird One is the fact that we haven’t posted anything in two months, mainly because whatever odd silliness visible in the darker corners of Wall Street seems irrelevant in a world where Vladimir Putin can invade his neighbors, take territory and shoot passenger planes from the sky while the civilized world sputters about such things not being fit for 21stCentury-type behavior before moving onto actual 21st Century-type behavior like Tweeting about…
  • Okay FINRA, Who Had The Call From The FHFA?

    Jeff Matthews
    11 Jul 2014 | 6:38 am
     Last night at 4:05 PM E.S.T. the news hit Bloomberg that the Federal Housing Financing Agency was proposing an astoundingly, stupidly strict set of standards for private mortgage insurers who do business with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the net effect of which would be to reduce the availability of credit for home buyers at the very time that credit is needed to keep our economic recovery going. We are not here to explain the issue, only to point out to FINRA, the self-policing body in charge of sniffing out strange behavior in the public markets, the enormous--nay,…
  • Life in Wartime, or, One More Reason Why Companies Leave America

    Jeff Matthews
    17 Jun 2014 | 11:47 am
     These are the headlines on my Bloomberg for Annie's, the organic mac and cheese maker whose shares have fallen from unsustainable heights as the difficulties of running a public company while trying to meet the impatient quarterly targets of impatient quarterly-minded investors finally overcame the euphoria of a company that seemed to be in the right place at the right time. And this is one more reason why companies are leaving America. For the record, I like the new CFO (who helped flag the filing deficiencies) and would not bet against the company mending its ways. Nor…
  • Berkshire Hathaway: Beyond Buffett

    Jeff Matthews
    24 May 2014 | 11:00 am
    If this is failure, I want more of it.”—Charlie Munger “The only succession for Ajit Jain is reincarnation.”—Warren BuffettOmaha, Nebraska, May 3, 2014.It’s one year later, and I’m driving in pre-dawn darkness through downtown Omaha to the 2014 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, which, up until about a week ago, was looking like another cakewalk for Warren Buffett. After all, Berkshire’s net worth increased 18% in 2013, representing a staggering $34 billion jump in value.  And while, as some wet-blanket observers have pointed out, Berkshire’s 18% gain paled in…
 
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    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

  • Chris Martenson and Mish Audio on Bank of Japan's Surprise Move on Friday

    1 Nov 2014 | 12:14 am
    Every other Wednesday or so, Chris Martenson and I get together for a podcast. Sometimes one of us or the other is out of town, and sometimes Chris has other guest speakers. Because of scheduling difficulties, Chris and I got together today instead of Wednesday. I asked Chris to make today's podcast generally available. For our take of Friday's BoJ surprise move, please play the audio on Chris' Peak Prosperity site: Off the Cuff: Japanese Central Bank Throws Granny Under the Bus.The audio is about 25 minutes long. The podcasts are not scripted. Chris and I just talk "off the cuff" on events…
  • Could Non-Citizens Determine the Outcome of the Midterm Elections?

    31 Oct 2014 | 1:30 pm
    Here's the question of the day: Could Non-Citizens Determine the Outcome of the Midterm Elections? Some elections, especially for Senate are so close, the unfortunate answer is "yes" as the following video insight from Insight from the Libre Institute explains.Mike "Mish" Shedlockhttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit…
  • Nikkei Futures Up Limit, Yen Collapses, Dollar Up, Gold Down as BoJ Pledges "Unwavering Determination" to Get 2% Inflation

    31 Oct 2014 | 10:38 am
    "Whatever it Takes" Japanese Style It's a world truly gone mad.In a surprise move today, the Bank of Japan announced further quantitative easing, dominated by long-term Japanese government bonds. The BoJ also announced it  and would triple annual purchases of exchange traded funds and property investment trusts.BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda defied objections from four fellow board members, arguing that a tax-hit economy and a lower oil price have led to “a critical moment” in the country’s bid to escape from deflation.The Financial Times quotes Kuroda as follows: The extra action…
  • Looking for a Good Education at a Low Price, Perhaps Free? Head to Europe

    30 Oct 2014 | 6:53 pm
    On June 7, 2014 I wrote Looking to Drastically Reduce College Costs? Study Abroad!Yesterday, a writer for the Washington Post expressed the same opinion.Please consider 7 countries where Americans can study at universities, in English, for free (or almost free). Since 1985, U.S. college costs have surged by about 500 percent, and tuition fees keep rising. In Germany, they've done the opposite.The country's universities have been tuition-free since the beginning of October, when Lower Saxony became the last state to scrap the fees. Tuition rates were always low in Germany, but now the German…
  • Earnings Cheating Season: Is Your Favorite Company Cooking the Books?

    30 Oct 2014 | 12:14 pm
    In his latest Global Strategy Report, Albert Edwards at Societe Generale discusses "earnings season" which he calls "cheating season". We have always found that swings in analyst earnings expectations mirror the economic cycle quite well, but because of the weekly frequency, swings in analyst earnings optimism often act as a timely leading indicator for the economic cycle. If that is still the case, the recent data for the US should be worrying. Despite the soothing Q3 headline earnings reports as US companies ‘game’ the system, all is not well once you look into the ‘MUC’…
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    Overcoming Bias

  • Philosophy Between The Lines

    Robin Hanson
    31 Oct 2014 | 11:00 am
    Seven years ago I raved about a Journal of Politics article by Arthur Melzer that persuaded me that ancient thinkers often wrote “esoterically,” e.g., praising their local religions and rulers on the surface, while expressing their true atheism, rebellion, etc. between the lines. Melzer has just come out with a very well written and persuasive book Philosophy Between The Lines, that greatly elaborates this thesis. Melzer’s book emphasizes the puzzle that while ancient thinkers were quite open about esotericism, modern thinkers have mostly forgotten it ever existed, and are typically…
  • “I Robot, You Unemployed”

    Robin Hanson
    28 Oct 2014 | 8:40 am
    Tomorrow (Wednesday) at 7pm EST I’ll do a Learn Liberty Live! web presentation on “I, Robot. You, Unemployed” here. After a short ten minute presentation, I’ll lead ninety minutes of discussion. I expect to focus on em econ.
  • The Rosy View Bias

    Robin Hanson
    25 Oct 2014 | 5:10 pm
    How much does merit contribute to success? A rosy view is that success is mostly due to merit, while a dark view is that success is mostly not due to merit, but instead due to what we see as illicit factors, such as luck, looks, wit, wealth, race, gender, politics, etc. Over a lifetime people gain data on the relation between success and merit. And one data point stands out most in their minds: the relation between their own success and merit. Since most people see themselves as being pretty meritorious, the sign of this data point depends mostly on their personal success. Successful people…
  • Thrown’s Kit’s Self-Deception

    Robin Hanson
    20 Oct 2014 | 5:15 pm
    Back in July 2010 Kerry Howley published a nice New York Times Magazine article on the tensions between my wife and I resulting from my choice to do cryonics. The very next month, August 2010, is the date when, in Howley’s new and already-celebrated book Thrown, her alter-ego Kit first falls in love with MMA fighting: Not until my ride home, as I began to settle back into my bones and feel the limiting contours of perception close back in like the nursery curtains that stifled the views of my youth, did it occur to me that I had, for the first time in my life, found a way out of this, my…
  • Em Software Results

    Robin Hanson
    17 Oct 2014 | 10:25 am
    After requesting your help, I should tell you what it added up to. The following is an excerpt from my book draft, illustrated by this diagram: In our world, the cost of computing hardware has been falling rapidly for decades. This fall has forced most computer projects to be short term, so that products can be used before they are made obsolete. The increasing quantity of software purchased has also led to larger software projects, which involve more engineers. This has shifted the emphasis toward more communication and negotiation, and also more modularity and standardization in software…
 
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Boo! Who’s afraid of availability bias?

    Andrew
    31 Oct 2014 | 6:36 am
    Just in time for Halloween: I came across this 2-minute video by Brian Zikmund-Fisher, a professor of Health Behavior and Health Education at the University of Michigan, and I took a look because I was curious what he had to say. The video is called “Why aren’t we more scared of measles?” and has the following description: Measles is one of the leading causes of death amongst children worldwide. In 2012, an estimated 122,000 people died of the disease according to the World Health Organization – equivalent to 14 deaths every hour. Yet talk to parents about this highly…
  • Was it really necessary to do a voting experiment on 300,000 people? Maybe 299,999 would’ve been enough? Or 299,998? Or maybe 2000?

    Andrew
    30 Oct 2014 | 6:18 am
    There’s been some discussion recently about an experiment done in Montana, New Hampshire, and California, conducted by three young political science professors, in which letters were sent to 300,000 people, in order to (possibly) affect their voting behavior. It appears that the plan was to follow up after the elections and track voter turnout. (Some details are in this news report from Dylan Scott.) The Montana experiment was particularly controversial, with disputes about the legality and ethicality of sending people an official-looking document with the Montana state seal, the…
  • Statistical distribution of incomes in different countries, and a great plot

    Phil
    29 Oct 2014 | 5:21 pm
    This post is by Phil Price. This article in the New York Times is pretty good, and the graphics are excellent…especially the interactive graphic halfway down, entitled “American Incomes Are Losing Their Edge, Except at the Top” (try mousing over the gray lines and see what happens). The plot attempts to display the statistical distribution of incomes in about 10 different countries. That alone is not so easy; one natural idea is to display a bunch of histograms in a small multiples plot. But the plot also tries to show how each of the distributions has changed since 1980. I…
  • I love it when I can respond to a question with a single link

    Andrew
    29 Oct 2014 | 6:46 am
    Shira writes: This came up from trying to help a colleague of mine at Human Rights Watch. He has several completely observed variables X, and a variable with 29% missing, Y. He wants a histogram (and other descriptive statistics) of a “filled in” Y. He can regress Y on X, and impute missing Y’s from their fully observed X values (from the posterior predictive distribution). If he wants a histogram of the “filled in” Y, what would you recommend to him? Is there a good way to display this, taking the uncertainty in the imputed Y’s into account? My reply:…
  • Body-slam on the sister blog

    Andrew
    28 Oct 2014 | 7:57 pm
    John Ahlquist and Scott Gehlbach nail it. The post Body-slam on the sister blog appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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    Streetsblog New York City

  • NYC: Remember This Hashtag – #marathonfunday

    Ben Fried
    31 Oct 2014 | 2:25 pm
    Rise with the sun on marathon day and you can claim what’s typically a car-choked mess all to yourself. Photo: Doug Gordon Quick, what’s the biggest car-free event of the year? Summer Streets gives New Yorkers the longest stretch of contiguous roadway with no traffic, but marathon Sunday might reclaim more asphalt — even if you don’t count the route itself, all the car-free side streets along the way add up. Of course, if you get up early enough you can enjoy block after block of the marathon route before the course gets cleared for the race. Doug Gordon and his…
  • NYC: The Weekly Carnage

    Summer Greenstein
    31 Oct 2014 | 12:17 pm
    The Weekly Carnage is a Friday round-up of motor vehicle violence across the five boroughs. For more on the origins and purpose of this column, please read About the Weekly Carnage. A motorist backed onto a sidewalk outside a Kingsbridge school, hitting 10 people and killing 8-year-old Rylee Ramos. No charges were filed by NYPD or Bronx DA Robert Johnson. Photo via Daily News Fatal Crashes (6 Killed This Week; 170 This Year*) Chinatown: 59-Year-Old Dragged by Private Garbage Truck Driver Who Fled Scene (DNA, Post) Ridgewood: Edgar Torres, 40, Struck by MTA Bus Driver; No Charges…
  • NYC: Halloween: A Lot Less Scary If Drivers and Roads Were Safer

    Brad Aaron
    31 Oct 2014 | 11:21 am
    ICYMI: We’re helping children be seen on #Halloween by lending them reflective vests! Details: http://t.co/FmEPHvc43G pic.twitter.com/AggiFilfDn — MD State Highway Adm (@MDSHA) October 22, 2014 Halloween is fun because we get to be afraid of things that we know aren’t really scary. But for little trick or treaters in the United States, the danger posed by reckless drivers and unsafe roads is real. A 2012 study by insurance company State Farm found that motorists kill more children on Halloween than on any other day of the year. Reported LoHud: From 1990 to 2010, 115 pedestrians…
  • NYC: Nassau Democrat Campaigns Against Speed Cams in Bid for Senate Seat

    Stephen Miller
    31 Oct 2014 | 8:21 am
    Adam Haber, a Democrat challenging incumbent Republican State Senator Jack Martins in Nassau County, is out with a new attack ad blasting his opponent for supporting speed cameras. In April, the Senate voted 49-11 for a bill that expanded New York City’s speed cam program and brought automated speeding enforcement to Long Island for the first time. As in NYC, the law restricts Nassau County’s cameras to streets with school entrances nearby, during specific daytime hours. Drivers can get tickets only if they are going more than 10 mph over the limit. The Nassau County program got…
  • NYC: Today’s Headlines

    Brad Aaron
    31 Oct 2014 | 5:54 am
    Prendergast Confirms 2015 Fare Hike, Urges Proposed Capital Plan Improvements (NBC, PIX, CBS) Private Trash Truck Driver Kills Chinatown Pedestrian; NYPD Preps Hit-and-Run Defense (DNA, Post) Witness: Edgar Torres Had Right of Way When He Was Struck and Killed by MTA Bus Driver (WNYC) 88th Precinct Barely Enforcing Dangerous Driving Violations After Death of Lucian Merryweather (DNA) Brooklyn Paper: Does Brooklyn Really Want More Citi Bike? You Decide! Will Uber and Lyft Usher in the Future, or Set NYC Back 100 Years? (CapNY) NYPD Records Indicate Horse Carriages Are Involved in Around Five…
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    The Big Picture

  • Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 10.31.14

    Barry Ritholtz
    31 Oct 2014 | 1:00 pm
    Succinct Summations week ending October 31st. Positives: 1. Q3 GDP rose 3.5% vs expectations of 3.1%. 2. The Fed officially ended QE, the market stood on its own two feet. 3. Consumer confidence came in at 94.5, the highest levels since October 2007. 4. Chicago PMI came rose to a 12-month high of 66.2. 5. Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in at 20 v expectations of 11. 6. University of Michigan consumer confidence rose to 86.9, the best reading since 2007. 7. Japan industrial production rose 2.7% m/o/m, better than the 2.2% expected. 8. The S&P 500 finished October 2% higher after…
  • Random Thoughts for October

    Barry Ritholtz
    31 Oct 2014 | 10:00 am
    Over the course of each month, I end up with quite a few random thoughts. They are the interesting tidbits that are not quite meaty enough to be worthy of a full column. But they often are interesting enough to stimulate thinking and provoke discussion. Rather than toss them out, I save them up over the course of each month. Here is what October’s random thoughts look like: • Americans spend more than $2 billion on Halloween candy each year; we spend even more than that on costumes. • The Bank of Japan surprised everyone by upping its stimulus to 80 trillion yen ($717 billion).
  • Halloween: The Chemistry of Candy

    Barry Ritholtz
    31 Oct 2014 | 9:00 am
    Source: Compound Chem
  • 10 Friday Reads

    Barry Ritholtz
    31 Oct 2014 | 5:30 am
    Japan is sending us a treat – or is it a trick? Its Halloween, and here are my morning train reads: • The U.S. recovery is frustrating — but it’s the envy of the advanced world (Wonkblog) see also U.S. Economy Up 3.5% in 3rd Quarter, Capping Best 6 Months in Over a Decade (Bloomberg) • How this Investment Firm Hopes to Revolutionize Litigation in America (Mimesis Law) •  Value Trap Underneath Gold Miner Fund GDX (ETF) see also Charts Suggest Gold Will Keep On Falling (Barron’s) • Solar Flair: How do you make ray-soaking roof panels a hot investment? By making them a…
  • 1939 Bentley 4 ¼ Litre “Embericos” Pourtout coupe

    Barry Ritholtz
    31 Oct 2014 | 3:00 am
    Source: Classic Driver Source: Frank Dale Source: Wikimedia
 
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    The Epicurean Dealmaker

  • Courtly Love

    27 Oct 2014 | 8:37 pm
    Contrary to the cynicism that can pervade discussions of [mergers and acquisitions], many top level M & A advisors have a genuine concern about the integrity of large scale transactions and a desire for the fiduciaries involved to serve the interests they represent in a good faith and effective way. This is not to say that they do not seek to advance the interests of their clients in obtaining legitimate economic advantage, but they do want the game to be a fair one.— Leo E. Strine, Jr., Chief Justice, Delaware Supreme Court 1,2,31 While I appreciate Chief Justice Strine’s sentiment…
  • Sunday Reading from the Archives

    19 Oct 2014 | 10:20 am
    Edward Hopper, Early Sunday Morning, 1930“Then I need say no more,” said Celeborn. “But do not despise the lore that has come down from distant years; for oft it may chance that old wives keep in memory word of things that once were needful for the wise to know.”— J.R.R. Tolkein, The Fellowship of the RingPeriodically, O Dearly Beloved, I take a leisurely stroll through the carefully stacked and organized pixels of my back catalogue, clicking from link to link in a solipsistic journey of rediscovery. Occasionally such wanderings illuminate a consistent intellectual preoccupation of…
  • The Privy Counselor

    11 Oct 2014 | 1:19 pm
    Diego Velasquez, Portrait of Pedro de Barberana, 1631No! I am not Prince Hamlet, nor was meant to be; Am an attendant lord, one that will do To swell a progress, start a scene or two, Advise the prince; no doubt, an easy tool, Deferential, glad to be of use,Politic, cautious, and meticulous; Full of high sentence, but a bit obtuse; At times, indeed, almost ridiculous— Almost, at times, the Fool.— T.S. Eliot, “The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock”So The Blackstone Group decided yesterday to spin off its advisory business and merge it with Paul Taubman’s advisory “kiosk.” This is…
  • Farewell, Ghafla Distraction

    3 Oct 2014 | 4:54 pm
    “Aha! Now we see the violence inherent in the system!”— Monty Python and the Holy GrailYes, it’s true: I’ve left Twitter.No special reason. All of a part with my reasons for terminating this blog,1 which boil down to being tired of it. I no longer get enough out of the service to merit the near constant immersion and distraction which it seems to elicit from me. I have better uses for my time. And the more substantive readings and links of interest which used to attract me I have sourced otherwise through RSS feeds, so I no longer need to wade through reams of banal tweets on…
  • TED’s All Time Greatest Hits

    29 Sep 2014 | 7:44 pm
    The person who experiences greatness must have a feeling for the myth he is in. He must reflect what is projected upon him. And he must have a strong sense of the sardonic. This is what uncouples him from belief in his own pretensions. The sardonic is all that permits him to move within himself. Without this quality, even occasional greatness will destroy a man.— Frank Herbert, DuneI have used the preceding epigraph before, as some of you Delightful Readers may recall. It is a versatile and thought-provoking sentiment. Like many quotes and excerpts from Dune, which I contend is one of the…
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    OUPblog

  • Gentlemen, Samurai, and Germans in China

    Eleanor Jackson
    1 Nov 2014 | 12:30 am
    One hundred years ago today, far from the erupting battlefields of Europe, a small German force in the city of Tsingtau (Qingdao), Germany’s most important possession in China, was preparing for an impending siege. The small fishing village of Qingdao and the surrounding area had been reluctantly leased to the German Empire by the Chinese government for 99 years in 1898, and German colonists soon set about transforming this minor outpost into a vibrant city boasting many of the comforts of home, including the forerunner of the now-famous Tsingtao Brewery. By 1914, Qingdao had over 50,000…
  • Sharecropper’s Troubadour: songs and stories from the 2014 OHA Annual Meeting

    Alice
    31 Oct 2014 | 5:30 am
    The 2014 Oral History Association Annual Meeting featured an exciting musical plenary session led by Michael Honey and Pat Krueger. They presented the songs and stories of John Handcox, the “poet laureate” of the interracial Southern Tenant Farmers Union, linking generations of struggle in the South through African American song and oral poetry traditions. The presentation built on Dr. Honey’s article in Oral History Review 41.2, “’Sharecroppers’ Troubadour': Can We Use Songs and Oral Poetry as Oral History?,” as well as his recent book. The audio below was graciously…
  • A Halloween horror story: What was it? Part 5

    PennyF
    31 Oct 2014 | 4:30 am
    Every Friday this October we’ve unveiled a part of Fitz-James O’Brien’s tale of an unusual entity in What Was It?, a story from the spine-tingling collection of works in Horror Stories: Classic Tales from Hoffmann to Hodgson, edited by Darryl Jones. Today we’re wrapping up the story with the final installment. Last we left off the narrator, Harry, and his friend, Hammond, tied up an invisible entity, shocking the boarders of the haunted home where they had been staying. Will they learn more about the mysterious creature? We watched together, smoking many pipes, all night long,…
  • Oxytocin and emotion recognition

    Julia Callaway
    31 Oct 2014 | 1:30 am
    Imagine you are in class and your friend has just made a fool of the teacher. How do you feel? Although this will depend on the personalities of those involved, you might well find yourself laughing along with your classmates at the teacher’s expense. The experience of sharing an emotion with your friends (in this case the fun of getting one over on the teacher) will probably strengthen your friendship further. But in a class of one hundred students, there are likely to be one or two who have trouble understanding the joke. The ability to infer and understand other peoples’ emotions and…
  • Stem cell therapy for diabetes

    ChloeF
    31 Oct 2014 | 12:30 am
    This month, it was reported that scientists at Harvard University have successfully made insulin-secreting beta cells from human pluripotent stem cells. This is an important milestone towards a “stem cell therapy” for diabetes, which will have huge effects on human medicine. Diabetes is a group of diseases in which the blood glucose is too high. In type 1 diabetes, the patients have an autoimmune disease that causes destruction of their insulin-producing cells (the beta cells of the pancreas). Insulin is the hormone that enables glucose to enter the cells of the tissues and in its…
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    Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

  • A Dollar of Profit Can’t Be In Two or More Places Simultaneously

    Don Boudreaux
    31 Oct 2014 | 10:17 am
    (Don Boudreaux) Here’s a letter to the Wall Street Journal: You report that Hillary Clinton tried to explain (away) her recent ‘businesses don’t create jobs’ remark by saying that what she really meant is that jobs are not created by businesses that “outsource jobs or stash their profits overseas” (“Hillary Rodham Warren,” Oct. 31). Ignore Ms. Clinton’s outsourcing comment, which reflects nothing but pedestrian economic illiteracy (or her willingness to pander to such).  Instead, note that if Ms. Clinton is correct to suggest that corporations are stashing lots of…
  • Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    31 Oct 2014 | 5:49 am
    (Don Boudreaux) … is from page 197 of Michael Huemer’s impressive 2013 book, The Problem of Political Authority (emphases original): A related form of utopianism consists of suspending general assumptions about human nature when considering agents of the state.  Defenders of government are often keen to point out the harms that might result from the widespread greed and selfishness of mankind in the absence of a government able to restrain our worst excesses.  Yet they seldom pause to consider what might result from the very same greed and selfishness in the presence of government,…
  • Some Links

    Don Boudreaux
    31 Oct 2014 | 3:18 am
    (Don Boudreaux) My former student Alex Nowrasteh, now with the Cato Institute, writes in the Wall Street Journal to advise the G.O.P. to abandon its hostility to immigrants. Sandy Ikeda on the power of no. Terry Anderson explains that the Endangered Species Act threatens wildlife. The New York Times says that Obamacare is a success; Merrill Matthews says that the New York Times‘s analysis is a failure. Speaking of Obamacare, the market responds to that man-made calamity humanely – as explained by Maxim Lott. James Pethokoukis points us to Scott Winship’s recent debunking…
  • Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    30 Oct 2014 | 4:20 am
    (Don Boudreaux) … is from pages 38-39 of the manuscript of Deirdre McCloskey‘s extensive and insightful review of Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century; (quoted here with Deirdre’s kind permission) (original emphasis; footnote excluded): The usual way, especially on the left, of talking about poverty relies on the percentage distribution of income, starting fixedly for example at a relative “poverty line.”  As the progressive Australian economist Peter Saunders notes, however, such a definition of poverty “automatically shift[s] upwards whenever…
  • A Note On the Empirics of Minimum-Wage Studies

    Don Boudreaux
    29 Oct 2014 | 10:28 am
    (Don Boudreaux) Bill Hill (who has no Facebook account), after reading this post, asks a sensible question.  I’ll paraphrase his question.  (Mr. Hill: If I paraphrase mistakenly, do let me know ASAP.) You [Boudreaux] say that minimum-wage legislation blocks the creation or discovery of economic opportunities that might well, had there been no such legislation, employed many low-skilled workers.  That claim might be true.  But even so, why would not empirical studies of changes in the minimum wage, and of differences in minimum-wages across political jurisdictions, fail to pick up…
 
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    Dollars & Sense Blog

  • That Film About Money

    Chris Sturr
    26 Oct 2014 | 10:04 am
    The film director James Schamus, who is a D&S subscriber and supporter, wrote us saying he “thought you’d like to see some work inspired by what you do”–two short films about money that are part of the New York Times‘s “We the Economy” series (I haven’t seen the other short films in the series, but I’m guessing the others are not as good as James’s!). Here they are:   Great to see D&S pals Rick Wolff, Barbara Garson, and Suresh Naidu interviewed here! Here is James’s director’s statement from the “We the…
  • Tuesday Links: London Whale, S.A.C. Capital, Jeff Madrick

    Chris Sturr
    21 Oct 2014 | 1:23 pm
    Apologies about the break from posts for the past week plus.  I just moved apartments, and that kept me from blogging. (Though around the same time I was moving we had some troubles with our sister blog, Triple Crisis, which also took up a lot of time. I have found some temporary fixes for our troubles, but if there are any WordPress developers out there who could give us some pro bono help with our two blogs (which both run on WordPress) and our website (which we intend to shift over to WordPress), please drop us a line.) Here are my latest links: (1) Jeff Madrick’s Seven Bad Ideas:…
  • Friday Links: Market Basket, War and Climate Change, etc.

    Chris Sturr
    3 Oct 2014 | 8:43 am
    (1) Alejandro Reuss on Market Basket:  I noticed that a Twitter account related to the low-wage worker organizing that is going on now, @LowPayIsNotOk, tweeted about a ridiculous article from Forbes arguing that the take-away from the return of Arthur T. Demoulas as CEO to the Market Basket supermarket chain is that good leaders know how to engage their employees’ volunteerism (Market Basket: The Power of Volunteerism And Employee Engagement).  That inspired me to post the piece on Market Basket by my co-editor, Alejandro Reuss, in our current issue (our Annual Labor Issue): The…
  • Annual Labor Issue

    Chris Sturr
    25 Sep 2014 | 3:23 pm
      We have finally sent our September/October 2014 Annual Labor Issue out to e-subscribers (print subscribers should get it within a week to ten days).  And I just posted our cover story to the website, The Future of Work, Leisure, and Consumption in an Age of Economic and Ecological Crisis, which is an interview with economist and Boston College sociology professor Juliet Schor. Here is the editors’ note from p. 2 of the issue: Unconventional Wisdom Here are some bits of “conventional wisdom” about labor relations and work in the United States today: It’s part of the…
  • Climate March Links: Industrial Policy!

    Chris Sturr
    19 Sep 2014 | 3:49 pm
    A few items in advance of this weekend’s Climate March in NYC: (1) Ron Baiman of the Chicago Political Economy Group sent us this: I’m sometimes asked: What is industrial policy? This article (“Sun and Wind Alter Global Landscape, Leaving Utilities Behind”) by Justin Gillis of the New York Times shows what industrial policy is. If Germany, a country with little sun, and little wind-swept land mass can do it, we all can! In fact as the article notes, German (and Chinese) industrial policies are bringing prices down and making these planetary saving technologies…
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    Japan Economy Watch

  • Is Japan Back In Recession?

    Edward Hugh
    8 Oct 2014 | 8:39 am
    “People should seriously consider that Japan’s economy may have fallen into recession despite the weaker yen and a stock rally from the BOJ’s easing and the flexible fiscal policy by Abe’s administration,” said Maiko Noguchi, senior economist at Daiwa Securities. “Initial expectations that the economy could withstand the negative effects of a sales tax hike through a virtuous circle seem to be
  • Does Abenomics Work? - The Doubts Grow

    Edward Hugh
    18 Sep 2014 | 12:35 pm
    Is something in the air? Do I detect a change in consensus on the way things are going in Japan? Certainly a slew of articles have been published in the financial press over the last month questioning where the Abenomics experiment is headed for. The general conclusion seems to be that wherever it is it is certainly not the originally designated endpoint. Thus the Economist. "It is crisis mode
  • Abenomics - What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

    Edward Hugh
    14 Aug 2014 | 8:05 am
    If this week's economics news is positive then that is good.  But if it's bad then that's even better, since there is more potential for it to improve next week, and if it doesn't, well that's doubly better since there will be  even more reason for central banks to step in and push up asset prices. Maybe all this sounds peculiar, even perverse, but it would seem to be how many people working in
  • Japan Inflation At A 32 Year High?

    Edward Hugh
    29 Jun 2014 | 12:23 pm
    Just in case anyone was in any doubt last weeks newspaper  headlines blared it out for us loud and clear - Japanese inflation is back, and has even hit levels last seen in 1982. (Click on image below for better viewing). In fact consumer prices in Japan rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in May according to the Bank of Japan's preferred measure, driven higher from one month to another by the
  • Will Japan Re-enter Deflation in April 2015?

    Edward Hugh
    20 Jun 2014 | 3:20 am
    Reading the most recent statements from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda or Finance Minister Taro Aso you would get the impression that the days of deflation are now well and truly numbered in Japan. Martin Schulz, economist at Fujitsu Research Institute in Tokyo, goes even further. “Deflation is over in Japan,” he told Bloomberg Television First Up’s Angie Lau . Even Japan’s industrial
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    Credit Slips

  • Here Come the Tourists

    Stephen Lubben
    31 Oct 2014 | 8:27 am
    This week's Dealb%k is about foreign debtors that file under the US Code, which also just happens to be the subject of a recent paper that my co-author and I have posted online.
  • A Filing Means What It Says

    Bob Lawless
    30 Oct 2014 | 3:20 pm
    Almost two weeks ago now, the Delaware Supreme Court handed down its decision over J.P. Morgan's mistaken termination statement in the General Motors bankruptcy. (Note to Google Chrome users like me -- the link may not work; try a different web browser.)  I think they got it right, but to understand why, one obviously needs to know the facts. Melissa Jacoby has blogged about the case (especially) here and here. As Melissa explains in more detail in the former post, the case revolves a mistaken Uniform Commercial Code (UCC) filing by JPMorgan Chase.  To really stylize the facts,…
  • My Worlds Collide

    Bob Lawless
    27 Oct 2014 | 2:34 pm
    I am obsessively interested in two things -- bankruptcy and Formula One auto racing. I feed the first interest through this blog. The second interest is tended to by watching way, way too much Formula One on television. Indeed, the best way to wind me up is to ask me if Formula One is the same as Nascar. This weekend, my worlds collided when two Formula 1 teams -- Caterham and Marussia (shown to the right) --were placed in administration in the U.K., a procedure akin to chapter 11. I was going to resist doing a post, but now that Pat Fitzgerald over at Bankruptcy Beat has posted a story, I…
  • QRM's Missed Opportunities for Financial Stability and Servicing Reform

    Adam Levitin
    24 Oct 2014 | 8:24 am
    There are three major new regulations shaping the housing finance market:  QM (qualified mortgage), QRM (qualified residential mortgage) and Reg X.  QM is a safe harbor from the statutory ability-to-repay requirement that applies to all mortgages.  QRM is a safe harbor from the statutory risk retention requirement that applies to mortgage securitization.  And Reg X are the new mortgage servicing regulations.  It's important to understand how these three regulations interact and how they're going to affect the housing finance market.  (There's also new TILA/RESPA…
  • Credit Risk Retention Rules and QRM

    Adam Levitin
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:43 pm
    The long awaited credit risk retention rules for securitization are out. The big question--whether the qualified residential mortgage or QRM exemption would be narrower than the CFPB's qualified mortgage or QM safe harbor to the Ability to Repay requirement for mortgages is no. QRM=QM. The short version is that the rule doesn't require meaningful credit risk retention where it counts, and imposes significant market-shaping safe-harbor requirements where skin in the game isn't so important. The basic rule is that 5% credit risk must be retained, unhedged, by the securitization…
 
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    The Aleph Blog » The Aleph Blog

  • Redacted Version of the October 2014 FOMC Statement

    David Merkel
    29 Oct 2014 | 11:58 am
    Photo Credit: DonkeyHoteySeptember 2014October 2014CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace.Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace.No change. This is another overestimate by the FOMC.On balance, labor market conditions improved somewhat further; however, the unemployment rate is little changed and a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization…
  • Book Review: Berkshire Beyond Buffett

    David Merkel
    29 Oct 2014 | 1:55 am
    It’s time to change what Warren Buffett supposedly said about his mentors:“I’m 85% Ben Graham, and 15% Phil Fisher.”For those who don’t know, Ben Graham is regarded to be the father of value investing, and Phil Fisher the father of growth investing.  Trouble is, Warren Buffett changed in his career such that this is no longer accurate.  Most of Buffett’s economic activity does not stem from buying and selling portions of public companies, but by buying and managing whole companies.  Buffett is the manager of a conglomerate that uses insurance reserves…
  • Waiting to Buy

    David Merkel
    28 Oct 2014 | 2:31 am
    Photo Credit: Brett Davies || Waiting, but to what end?When I worked in the investment department of a number of life insurers, every now and then I would hear one of the portfolio managers say, “We know that the rating agencies are going to downgrade the bonds of XYZ Corp, but we like the story.  We’re just waiting until after the downgrade, and then we will buy, because they will be cheaper then.”And, sometimes it would work.  Other times, nothing would happen at the downgrade, and they would buy at the same price.  But more interesting and frequent were the times when…
  • Risk Tolerance — The Ability to Deal with Loss

    David Merkel
    25 Oct 2014 | 9:13 pm
    Photo Credit: 401(K) 2012No one knows their financial “risk tolerance” outside of the context of losing money.  Part of the trouble is that risk and return are often described in the same breath as if they are inseparable, when they are more weakly related than most think, and certainly not linear.Surveys, no matter how well-intentioned or -designed do not typically grasp the asymmetry of gain and loss.  People feel losses much more acutely than gains, and are far more likely to change their behavior after losses.  Can’t tell you how many times I have had people say to…
  • The Butterfly Machine

    David Merkel
    23 Oct 2014 | 5:38 am
    Photo Credit: whologwhy || Danger: Butterfly at work!There’s a phenomenon called the Butterfly Effect.  One common quotation is “It has been said that something as small as the flutter of a butterfly’s wing can ultimately cause a typhoon halfway around the world.”Today I am here to tell you that for that to be true, the entire world would have to be engineered to allow the butterfly to do that.  The original insight regarding how small changes to complex systems occurred as a result of changing a parameter by a little less than one ten-thousandth.  Well, the force…
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    Quoting the Crisis

  • Why Monopolistic Pension Funds Undermine Capitalism

    6 Oct 2014 | 12:53 pm
    Why Monopolistic Pension Funds Undermine Capitalism: Roger Martin, hbr.org Peter Drucker was right, as he repeatedly was, when he foresaw in 1976 the emergence of pension funds as the most powerful wielder of capital in the modern economy. In his unique way he gave the story a neat twist by arguing that pension funds wou…
  • CEOs Get Paid Too Much, According to Pretty Much Everyone in the...

    23 Sep 2014 | 9:17 pm
    CEOs Get Paid Too Much, According to Pretty Much Everyone in the World Gretchen Gavett, hbr.org Rumblings of discontent about executive wages, the 1%, and wealth gaps know no borders. And neither does fierce debate about income inequality in general. But until now, it’s been relatively unclear how much people think CEOs should really make…
  • Microsoft’s $29.6 billion scam: Tech giant leads the way in...

    29 Aug 2014 | 11:07 am
    Microsoft’s $29.6 billion scam: Tech giant leads the way in tax-avoiding innovation David Sirota, salon.com More and more companies who enjoy huge benefits operating in the U.S. are trying to weasel their way out of taxesReading companies’ annual reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission is a reliable cure for insomnia. Every so often, though…
  • Beware the enormous bubble in bonds Chris Martenson,...

    29 Aug 2014 | 11:05 am
    Beware the enormous bubble in bonds Chris Martenson, marketwatch.com There’s an enormous bubble building in global bond markets, warns Chris Martenson.The only question now is: Who will take the losses?There’s a saying on Wall Street: Stocks are for show, but bonds are for dough.The flash, sizzle and focus…
  • A European Lost Decade?

    22 Aug 2014 | 4:03 am
    A European Lost Decade?: Michael Heise, project-syndicate.org Europe’s current economic predicament sounds a lot like Japan’s in the 1990s, which culminated in a “lost decade” of stagnant growth and deflation from which the country is still working to recover. How can Europe avoid a similar fate?
 
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    IMF Survey Magazine

  • IMF and Kuwait Officially Open Mideast Training Center

    29 Oct 2014 | 4:49 pm
    IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde and Kuwait’s Minister of Finance Anas Al-Saleh officially inaugurated the IMF Middle East Center for Economics and Finance (CEF) in Kuwait following an endorsement from the parliament.
  • IMF and Kuwait Officially Open Mideast Training Center

    29 Oct 2014 | 12:03 pm
    IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde and Kuwait’s Minister of Finance Anas Al-Saleh officially inaugurated the IMF Middle East Center for Economics and Finance (CEF) in Kuwait following an endorsement from the parliament.
  • Mideast Sees Fragile Recovery Amid Conflicts and Transitions

    27 Oct 2014 | 2:26 am
    The Middle East and North Africa region continues to experience lackluster growth for the fourth year in a row, the IMF said in its latest regional assessment.
  • New Revenues Can Offset Africa’s Rising Income Inequality

    21 Oct 2014 | 9:14 am
    Combating rising income inequality in sub-Saharan Africa will require a pragmatic, multipronged approach to uncover new sources of revenue while also enabling critical investments in human capital, participants agree at a seminar in Washington, D.C.
  • Strong Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, but Pockets of Difficulty

    20 Oct 2014 | 6:22 am
    Strong growth in most of sub-Saharan Africa’s economies should support robust regional expansion in 2014 and 2015, the IMF’s regional outlook says. In most countries, growth benefits from a blend of infrastructure investment, expanding services, and agricultural output.
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    24/7 Wall St.

  • The 52-Week Low Club for Friday

    Paul Ausick
    31 Oct 2014 | 1:05 pm
    October 31, 2014: Here are four stocks among the 106 equities making new 52-week lows today. Kinross Gold Corp. (NYSE: KGC) dropped nearly 17% today to post a new 52-week low of $2.07. The stock’s...
  • The 4 DJIA Stocks That Boosted the Market

    Paul Ausick
    31 Oct 2014 | 1:01 pm
    October 31, 2014: Markets opened higher on Friday following a sharp boost to the Bank of Japan’s quantitative easing program. The dollar got stronger against the yen, dropping gold and oil prices,...
  • U.S. Meat Prices Rise Sharply in October

    Paul Ausick
    31 Oct 2014 | 12:19 pm
    The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its preliminary report on October farm prices Friday afternoon. The all-products price index fell 8.4% month-over-month to 98, with the crop index...
  • The Stock Market Joke of October: What Sell-Off?

    Jon C. Ogg
    31 Oct 2014 | 10:20 am
    So, is it a joke to ask what happened to the sell-off? It depends on whom you ask.
  • Why WisdomTree Is Back!

    247chrislange
    31 Oct 2014 | 10:00 am
    WisdomTree Investments may seem like an unusual bull market barometer, considering how many investment management firms there are, but Wisdom Tree is back.
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    The Baseline Scenario

  • A Conference On Finance For Everyone Else

    Simon Johnson
    31 Oct 2014 | 9:22 am
    By Simon Johnson It is hard to move around in Washington these days without bumping into a conference on the future of finance. But most of these are either closed to the public, or run on behalf of large banks as part of their lobbying efforts. Next week, there will be a conference open to everyone at George Washington University to discuss where we really are on financial reform, and what still needs to be done. You should register in advance through the web page (link given above), but there is no cost to attend. Featured speakers include Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve…
  • No, You Can’t Get a Drink at 5 AM

    James Kwak
    16 Oct 2014 | 5:28 am
    By James Kwak I’m in the United Club at SFO waiting for a flight, and the bar is closed until 8. So much for business travel. I just published a post over at Medium that is really about two things: how both airline marketers and on-campus recruiters perpetuate the idea that air travel is glamorous, even when all of us know that it isn’t. It’s sort of a sequel to one of my favorite posts of those I’ve written, “Why Do Harvard Kids Head to Wall Street?” which I think is the one Paul Tough mentioned in his book about grit. Now that it’s recruiting…
  • Cultural Capture and the Financial Crisis

    James Kwak
    9 Oct 2014 | 6:27 am
    By James Kwak A few years ago, while still in law school, I was invited to write a chapter for a Tobin Project book on regulatory capture. It was a bit intimidating, being part of a project that included luminaries like David Moss, Dan Carpenter, Luigi Zingales, Richard Posner, Tino Cuellar, and the deans of two of the best law schools in the country. I was asked to write something about an idea that I had slipped into 13 Bankers, almost in passing, about the cultural prestige of the financial industry and the political and regulatory benefits the industry derived from that prestige. My…
  • Game of Thrones, The Wire, and the New York Fed

    James Kwak
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:07 am
    By James Kwak I wrote a column that went up this morning at The Atlantic about the ProPublica/This American Life story about the New York Fed. The gist of the argument is that we all knew the New York Fed was captured; for people like Tim Geithner, that’s a feature, not a bug. There was a paragraph in my original draft that I really liked, but I can completely understand why the editors didn’t want it: “When Tyrion Lannister wants his son killed, he sentences him to death in public. When Avon Barksdale wants potential incriminating witnesses killed, he obliquely lets his…
  • New Collection on Medium

    James Kwak
    25 Sep 2014 | 6:49 am
    By James Kwak I’ve joined a new collection on Medium devoted to business and finance writing. It’s called “Bull Market,” after an intense lobbying campaign (including alleged vote-buying, although I haven’t tried to collect) by Felix Salmon, and includes Felix, Mark Buchanan, Dan Davies, Alexis Goldstein, Francine McKenna, Evan Soltas, and Mark Stein. The goal is to write thoughtful articles that don’t just respond to the latest story on the wire (although there will be some of that, too). My contribution for today is a post about the no-poaching lawsuit…
 
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    Trends... Find them, ride them and get off.

  • The Biotech Boom …Too Late to Buy?…and Why Everyone Should Allocate to Trend Followers…

    Howard Lindzon
    23 Oct 2014 | 8:28 am
    If being right and not making money is a sin…I am going to hell. A very hot part of it. Every year I underperform in the markets. Not the averages, just my abilities based on the opportunities. I buy too late, I sell to soon. I am at mostly at peace with it because of the opportunities. They just keep coming. Staying in the business has been the way I have operated since 1998 when I started my hedge fund and thought it would be my life work. Sixteen years later I still have most of my original limited partners. They know I have distractions and flaws and I could probably be better at…
  • Today is a BETTER day to Panic

    Howard Lindzon
    21 Oct 2014 | 8:02 am
    Last week, the markets were going to zero thanks to Ebola and Netflix. Nike was the new Fila and Apple was the next Blackberry. The VIX spiked to 28 and the ‘Fear and Greed Index’ on CNN was 1. I was a buyer and outlined some of them in this blog post. As of this morning I am out of 3/4 of the stock I rented. I was willing to own for longer, but I will take the large quick gains. Biotech has continued to lead this market and barely budged in the big panic of 2014. It has quickly reasserted itself. For now, panic has subsided, but if you were scared and hoped your pain would end,…
  • Stocktoberfest – How to Invest for Profit and Joy as the Boom Continues

    Howard Lindzon
    20 Oct 2014 | 10:14 pm
    The glass is half full in my world…despite the mainstream media, net neutrality, Ebola and negative interest rates, I pop out of bed every morning to invest. The internet is industrial, energy is ‘tilting to the power grid‘, the ‘personal cloud‘ is coming, the enterprise is getting ready to spend and hire, ‘fashology‘ is now more fashion than technology, crowdfunding is not a fad, driverless cars and the ‘pivot to passive‘ are a reality and the super rich want to live forever and sleep on demand (biotech is booming because nature is a…
  • The Inconceivable Rally is Dead…Ebola and Netflix Killed It!

    Howard Lindzon
    15 Oct 2014 | 7:32 pm
    I love Netflix, I just don’t own it. Tonight, I feel a little less stupid. The stock has had more panic attacks than Tony Soprano. Tomorrow it is set to open down $120 points. Let’s put it all in a perspective: The stock has broken all laws of physics for technicians. Moving on… Since September….short indexes, long Ebola stocks has been a career maker. Maybe three people on the planet got this trade dead right and they won’t be on Twitter or CNBC. I watched the trade develop on Stocktwits ticker streams but did not participate. So many people in my stream have…
  • Ebola Won…But I am Buying

    Howard Lindzon
    15 Oct 2014 | 11:29 am
    The US markets are now all down on the year…which I sum up below in a cashtag: Goldman Sachs stock now negative on the year which means as usual…record bonuses… GS — Howard Lindzon (@howardlindzon) Oct. 15 at 09:07 AM Go watch Jon Stewart from last night if you want a hint of any truth on #EBOLA. I still don’t care how and why the markets are plunging, but they are. The signals were there starting in February when we discussed the small caps breaking down. When fear grips Wall Street, the ‘sell’ button becomes easy to hit. Your cool ‘robo’…
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    Economic Principals

  • Economic Principals is Traveling

    dw
    26 Oct 2014 | 2:30 pm
    EP is on the road, attending conferences, and will return next week. dw Share/Bookmark
  • Imperfect Competition, Legitimate at Last

    dw
    19 Oct 2014 | 1:00 pm
    The Nobel award  last week to Jean Tirole, of Toulouse School of Economics, capped a twentieth-century drama whose story has barely begun to be told. I can describe it here only in the broadest way; thanks to the Swedes, the details will now gradually emerge, as did those of similar developments in the past. But some idea about the episodes’ broader place in the scheme of things, as it pertains to you, can be had by viewing it in historical perspective. The story begins in the 1920s, in the years before John Maynard Keynes took center stage.  Edward Chamberlin (1899-1967) was a bright…
  • The Badger

    dw
    12 Oct 2014 | 1:37 pm
    American International Group minority shareholder Maurice (Hank) Greenberg, 89, sued the US government in 2011, charging the bargain it drove when it rescued the enormous insurance company he had built from humble beginnings was not only extortionate (the Federal Reserve Board took 80 percent of A.I.G.’s stock) but illicit, to boot. US Court of Claims Judge Thomas Wheeler, a referee in matters where the government is involved, agreed to hear the case. Last summer the jurist set out  his ambitions this way: I think by the time we get finished with this case and we have our trial, we’re…
  • Busted!

    dw
    5 Oct 2014 | 4:08 pm
    Not for the first time, EP chose a topic too difficult for the time allotted. Back next week. dw Share/Bookmark
  • Early Warnings

    dw
    29 Sep 2014 | 3:44 am
    The course in introductory computer science at Harvard College this year surpassed elementary economics in popularity. It has 818 enrollments, or nearly 12 percent of the undergraduate population, compared to 711 students in Economics 10. For most of the last thirty years, the economics course has been the catalog’s top offering. The swing probably reflects the expert showmanship of computer scientist David Malan more than any underlying change in the relative importance of the fields. (See this eye-opening account of Malan’s entrepreneurial flair by Cordelia Mendez, and/or read this…
 
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    Marginal REVOLUTION

  • Pharmaceutical regulation is getting tougher

    Tyler Cowen
    31 Oct 2014 | 11:19 pm
    From Diana Carew at the Progressive Policy Institute: …the number of ‘restrictions’ on drug companies increased by 767, or 40% since 2000. This represents a substantial rise in the overall regulatory burden of pharmaceutical companies, which must allocate resources to ensure regulatory compliance. The word “restriction” refers to command clauses such as “shall” and “must,” as contained in sections of the Code of Federal Regulations related to the FDA. The full study is here (pdf).
  • Himalayan Viagra fuels caterpillar fungus gold rush

    Tyler Cowen
    31 Oct 2014 | 10:55 am
    I don’t myself care about the event, I just liked the headline. A related study is here, and I thank CK for the pointer.
  • Assorted links

    Tyler Cowen
    31 Oct 2014 | 8:43 am
    1. Scott Sumner on demand- and supply-side stagnation.  I also would stress the risk premium as a transmission mechanism linking the two curves. 2. Austin Frakt reviews Google’s Inbox. 3. What the world eats. 4. When DNA is the matchmaker (dubious, in my view). 5. How candy conquered Halloween. 6. The 86-square foot Paris apartment.
  • Is recovery always slow after a financial crisis?

    Tyler Cowen
    31 Oct 2014 | 4:36 am
    That has been the received wisdom, but it is now challenged by a new paper (pdf) by Christina and David Romer: This paper revisits the aftermath of financial crises in advanced countries in the decades before the Great Recession. We construct a new series on financial distress in 24 OECD countries for the period 1967-2007. The series is based on narrative assessments of the health of countries’ financial systems that were made in real time; and it classifies financial distress on a relatively fine scale, rather than treating it as a 0-1 variable. We find little support for the conventional…
  • Was there mismatch unemployment during the Great Recession?

    Tyler Cowen
    30 Oct 2014 | 11:45 pm
    I remember this question being debated extensively circa 2009-2011, and those who said there was a (limited) role for mismatch unemployment were mocked pretty mercilessly.  Well, Sahin, Song, Topa, and Violante have a piece in the new American Economic Review entitled “Mismatch Unemployment.”  (You can find various versions here.)  It’s pretty thorough and state of the art.  Their conclusion:? “…mismatch, across industries and three-digit occupations, explains at most one-third of the total observed increase in the unemployment rate.”  The people…
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    Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

  • For the Weekend: The Ultimate Halloween Movie Is: The Nightmare Before Christmas

    J. Bradford DeLong
    31 Oct 2014 | 3:29 pm
  • A Dialogue on Secular Stagnation: The Honest Broker for the Week of October 24, 2014

    J. Bradford DeLong
    31 Oct 2014 | 12:56 pm
    ###Secular Stagnation### Princeps Cogitationis: If I am going to hold down my consulting and speech-making jobs, I need to understand what Larry Summers is talking about here: Larry Summers: What to do about secular stagnation? But it is too long! 3000 words! Help! What can I do? Oeconomicarus: But I thought you read 300 books a year? Princeps Cogitationis: I read the last chapter of 300 books a year. Then I read three short reviews of each. And then I opine fearlessly. Working through a difficult 3000-word argument and assessing it is not a good use of my time. READ MOAR Oeconomicarus: So…
  • For Halloween: Ruth Baby Ginsburg

    J. Bradford DeLong
    31 Oct 2014 | 8:39 am
  • Liveblogging the American Revolution: October 31, 1776: George III Hanover

    J. Bradford DeLong
    31 Oct 2014 | 8:17 am
    George III Hanover: His Majesty’s Most Gracious Speech to Both Houses of Parliament on Thursday, October 31, 1776: " My Lords, and Gentlemen, Nothing could have afforded Me so much satisfaction as to have been able to inform you, at the opening of this session, that the troubles, which have so long distracted my colonies in North America, were at an end; and that My unhappy people, recovered from their delusion, had delivered themselves from the oppression of their leaders, and returned to their duty. But so daring and desperate is the spirit of those leaders, whose object has always been…
  • Noted for Your Afternoon Procrastination for October 30, 2014

    J. Bradford DeLong
    30 Oct 2014 | 9:24 am
    Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog Suppose-Counterfactual World-That the U.S. Had Avoided Large-Scale QE since the Start of 2010... - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Over at Project Syndicate: Material Well-Being in America since 1979: (Early) Thursday Focus for October 30, 2014 - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Lunchtime Must Read: Jonathan Chait: Yellen Mentions Inequality; Right Scandalized - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Lunchtime Must-Read: Jon Hilsenrath: Fed Critics Have Been Wrong.... Time to Declare the Debate Over - Washington Center for Equitable Growth…
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    Dani Rodrik's weblog

  • Services, manufacturing, and new growth strategies

    Dani Rodrik
    15 Oct 2014 | 7:15 am
    I gave a talk yesterday on New Growth Strategies at the World Bank, which was more or less an elaboration of this short piece. I argued that industrialization had pretty much run out of steam as a growth strategy, that services would need to be the focus going forward, and that this required in turn a different policy mindset about how to increase productivity. In particular, I argued that policies focusing on generating a sequence of sectoral “winners,” which worked so  well in manufacturing (garments to car seats to cars to electronics), would have much smaller payoff in services,…
  • Back to sanity on economic convergence

    Dani Rodrik
    11 Sep 2014 | 1:50 pm
    It’s been interesting to watch how the conventional wisdom on rapid convergence – developing countries closing the gap with the advanced economies – has been changing over the last few years. It wasn’t so long ago that the world was in the grips of emerging-markets mania, projecting wildly optimistic growth numbers decades into the future. For the last 4-5 years, I have been writing that the pace of convergence we have experienced over the last two decades is unsustainable. There were temporary factors (cheap capital, low interest rates, high commodity prices, rapid Chinese expansion)…
  • My moonlighting career of the last 4 years

    Dani Rodrik
    25 Jun 2014 | 10:20 am
    At long last, Turkey's consitutional court has reversed the conviction of the more than 200 officers previously found guilty in the bogus Sledgehammer coup plot, leading to the release on June 19th of all those in jail (including my father in law). Even though a retrial is to take place, the ruling is a coda to the last four-and-a-half years during which my wife and I moonlighted as criminal investigator, forensic analyst, and political activist. It has been a truly surreal and bizarre experience, given how so many intelligent people bought into -- and refused let go of -- a coup plot…
  • Joining Global Policy as general editor

    Dani Rodrik
    31 May 2014 | 3:37 pm
    David Held is one of the most thoughtful researchers and commentators on global issues, so I am thrilled and honored to be joining forces with him as joint general editor of Global Policy. The journal publishes a range of exciting academic and policy oriented pieces. Check it out here.
  • Erdogan’s Coup

    Dani Rodrik
    27 May 2014 | 5:57 am
    Daron Acemoglu wrote what seemed like a surprising upbeat piece on Turkish democracy a few days ago. His argument seems to be that democracy required power to be wrested away from the secularists who had erected authoritarian structures, and Erdogan had achieved that. Even though, Erdogan’s recent turn to authoritarianism is “lamentable,” it was, Acemoglu claims, a predictable stage in Turkey’s democratic transition. Once Erdogan is gone, the article implies, democracy would be on a stronger footing than ever. There were in fact many other paths that could have proved less costly. The…
 
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    99% Invisible

  • 138- O-U-I-J-A

    Roman Mars
    28 Oct 2014 | 11:37 am
    The Ouija board is so simple and iconic that it looks like it comes from another time, or maybe another realm. The game is not as ancient as it was designed to look, but those two arched rows of letters have been spooking people for over 125 years. Actually, the roots of the board go back even farther, according to Ouija historian Robert Murch. To understand where Ouija boards (generically called “talking boards”) come from, you have to go back to middle of the 1800s, to three sisters in New York… This story was adapted from a piece by Linda Rodriguez McRobbie which originally…
  • 137- Good Bread

    Roman Mars
    22 Oct 2014 | 12:30 am
    The first print advertisement for Wonder Bread came out before the bread itself. It stated only that “a wonder” was coming. In a lot of ways, the statement was true. Wonder Bread was the perfect loaf.  “Slow food” advocates have pronounced industrial white bread of any brand a symbol of a modern grocery problem:  we consumers don’t know where our food comes from. The funny thing is that industrial white bread—that evenly sliced, squishy, moist, perfectly white and wondrous loaf—was once a highly designed solution to that very same problem. ***SUPPORT THE 2014 RADIOTOPIA…
  • Kickstart Radiotopia- A Storytelling Revolution

    Roman Mars
    19 Oct 2014 | 4:14 pm
    When you support Radiotopia, you are making sure 99% Invisible can keep coming to you weekly and you’ll be supporting our entire collective of award-winning, independent radiomakers. Please go to our Kickstarter page and back us in our effort to remake radio for the most innovative creators and curious listeners. Thanks! https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1748303376/radiotopia-a-storytelling-revolution  
  • 136- Lights Out

    Roman Mars
    14 Oct 2014 | 11:26 am
    On July 13th, 1977, lightning struck an electricity transmission line in New York City, causing the line’s automatic circuit breaker to kick in. The electricity from the affected line was diverted to another line. This was fairly normal and everything was fine—until a second bolt of lightening struck. Electric lines started shutting themselves off. As more and more lines were shut off, the system started to shut itself down. Eventually, the largest power generator in the area, known as Big Allis, turned itself off. And then all of New York City went dark. On that evening, DJ…
  • 135- For Amusement Only

    Roman Mars
    7 Oct 2014 | 4:17 pm
    Everyone has tried it at some point. The authorities started turning a blind eye years ago, but it wasn’t officially legalized until the summer of 2014. Finally, after more than 80 years of illegitimacy, the City of Oakland has legalized…pinball machines. Pinball’s design history can help explain why it was illegal for so long.
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    Eat the Bankers.com

  • Halloween Treats

    Sinclair Noe
    31 Oct 2014 | 3:55 pm
    Financial Review DOW + 195 = 17,390 SPX + 23 = 2018 NAS + 64 = 4630 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.33% OIL – .44 = 80.68 GOLD – 25.90 = 1173.90 SILV – .28 = 16.28 Record highs, again. Back on September 19th, the Dow hit a record high close of 17,279. And then we watched the market tumbled for nearly a month. On October 17th we told you about a bullish reversal pattern, and it has been a strong move to new highs; up 1,100 from when I called the reversal, and up 1,545 from the lows of October 15. Also, a new closing high for the S&P 500, however, we did not take out the intraday high of…
  • Getting Better

    Sinclair Noe
    30 Oct 2014 | 4:15 pm
    Financial Review DOW + 221 = 17,195 SPX + 12 = 1994 NAS + 16 = 4566 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.30% OIL + .53 = 81.95 GOLD – 12.80 = 1199.80 SILV – .63 = 16.56 We start with the government’s report on third quarter gross domestic product showing the economy grew at a 3.5% annualized rate between July and September. The Commerce Department reported the increase was primarily due to consumer spending, exports, and higher government spending on the federal, state and local levels. In four of the past five quarters, the economy has expanded at a rate of 3.5 percent or greater; the…
  • The Grand Experiment

    Sinclair Noe
    29 Oct 2014 | 4:13 pm
    Financial Review DOW – 31 = 16,974 SPX – 2 = 1982 NAS – 15 = 4549 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.32% OIL + .53 = 81.95 GOLD – 16.20 = 1212.60 SILV – .11 = 17.19 The Federal Reserve wrapped up their 2 day FOMC meeting. There were no surprises. The Fed is ending Quantitative Easing, just as they promised they would. There was a very slight change in their description of the labor market and inflation; saying underutilization in the labor market is gradually diminishing; and regarding inflation, the rate of price changes has slackened recently because of lower energy prices. The Fed kept…
  • The Ghosts of October

    Sinclair Noe
    28 Oct 2014 | 4:07 pm
    Financial Review DOW+ 187 = 17,005 SPX + 23 = 1985 NAS + 78 = 4564 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.29% OIL + .38 = 81.38 GOLD + 2.90 = 1229.00 SILV + .09 = 17.31 Today, we’ll start with a few earnings reports then move to economic news. After the close Facebook reported a profit of $806 million, or 30 cents a share, up from $425 million, or 17 cents a share, a year earlier. Excluding share-based compensation and other items, earnings rose to 43 cents a share from 27 cents. Revenue increased 59% to $3.2 billion. Earnings were up about 90%; revenue up about 60%. Shares were just a little lower in…
  • Monday.

    Sinclair Noe
    27 Oct 2014 | 4:17 pm
    Financial Review DOW + 12 = 16,817 SPX – 2 = 1961 NAS + 2 = 4485 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.26% OIL – .52 = 79.92 GOLD – 5.90 = 1226.10 SILV – .10 = 17.21 In economic news: the National Association of Realtors reports pending home sales rose 0.3% in September, hitting the second highest level for this year. The index of pending home sales reached a seasonally adjusted 105 in September, compared with 104.7 in August. Slower price growth and more homes for sale are likely supporting pending home sales. Pending sales typically close within 2 months, and so this gauge augurs well…
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    iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

  • A Downturn Without Layoffs? Reconciling Growth And Labor Markets In Latin America

    iMFdirect
    29 Oct 2014 | 12:00 pm
    By Bertrand Gruss  (version in Español and Português) It looks as if labor markets in Latin America have not been following the economic news—literally! Economic activity has slowed markedly in the last three years, with some South American countries slipping into outright recession more recently. Yet, labor markets still appear remarkably strong, with unemployment rates, in particular, hovering at record-low levels in most countries (Figure 1). So, what is going on? Has the region discovered how to defy the law of gravity? To analyze this apparent disconnect, we first scrutinize…
  • Infrastructure Investment: Part of Africa’s Solution

    iMFdirect
    28 Oct 2014 | 1:48 pm
    By Antoinette M. Sayeh Tremendous efforts are under way to upgrade sub-Saharan Africa’s infrastructure. But the needs on the ground are still immense as evidenced by the frequent electricity blackouts, poor roads, and insufficient access to clean water in many countries. Infrastructure is one of the key challenges facing policymakers in the region—I experienced it first hand when I was finance minister of Liberia before coming to the IMF. The benefits are fairly clear: with improved infrastructure, new growth opportunities in the manufacturing and services sector can be generated,…
  • Does Raising the Minimum Wage Hurt Employment? Evidence from China

    iMFdirect
    23 Oct 2014 | 6:46 am
    By Prakash Loungani (version in 中文) Raising the minimum wage is a polarizing issue. One side worries that raising it will lower employment. The other side downplays the impact on employment and plays up the positive impact on the living standards of the poor. Both sides are able to cling to their beliefs as the evidence, much of which comes from high-income (“advanced”) economies, is mixed. The majority of the global labor force, however, is in the emerging markets. Moreover, for a number of these countries, instituting a minimum wage or raising it is squarely on the policy agenda.
  • Natural Gas: The New Gold

    iMFdirect
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:16 am
    By Rabah Arezki Natural gas is creating a new reality for economies around the world.  Three major developments of the past few years have thrust natural gas into the spotlight: the shale gas revolution in the United States, the reduction in nuclear power supply following the Fukushima disaster in Japan, and geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. What’s cooking Over the last decade, the discovery of massive quantities of unconventional gas resources around the world has transformed global energy markets, and reshaped the geography of global energy trade (see map). Consumption of…
  • Banks Should Help, Not Hinder the Economy

    iMFdirect
    20 Oct 2014 | 8:11 am
    By Will Kerry and Andrea Maechler  Banks are struggling to overhaul the way they do business given new realities and new regulations adopted in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. While banks are generally stronger—they have more capital—they are less profitable, as measured by the return on equity. There are a number of reasons behind this, including: anemic net income at banks, particularly in the euro area; higher levels of equity; and banks taking fewer risks. If they cannot change their business models, there is a risk that banks will not be able to provide enough credit…
 
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    WordPress.com News

  • Blogging U.’s Photo 101 Course: Post a Photo a Day

    Cheri Lucas Rowlands
    28 Oct 2014 | 8:00 am
    On The Daily Post, we host the popular Weekly Photo Challenge each Friday, and we’re always excited to see your snapshots from all over the world. We thought a free photoblogging course mixing the spirit of these photo challenges with bite-sized shooting tips would be a fun way to get you taking pictures and meeting your daily posting goals. Introducing Blogging U.’s Photography 101 course Photography 101 is an intro-level course, open to all. You might be a totally new blogger, an amateur photographer, a veteran photo challenge participant, or a pro-shooter. Or, you may be…
  • 2014 Midterm Elections, Get Out The Vote!

    Peter Slutsky
    27 Oct 2014 | 10:15 am
    Since 2004, WordPress has set out with an ambitious goal in mind — to democratize publishing and put state-of-the-art tools in front of publishers both large and small across the planet. We believe strongly in this vision because when more people have access to powerful tools on the web, that in-turn empowers them to do great things and publish amazing content. We feel the same way when it comes to democratizing, well, democracy — and in just a few weeks, citizens across the United States will have a unique opportunity to flex their political muscle and vote in the 2014 Midterm…
  • The NaMos are Coming! The NaMos are Coming!

    Michelle W.
    24 Oct 2014 | 8:00 am
    November is one week away, and that means NaNoWriMo and NaBloPoMo are, too! If you’ve been thinking about reinvigorating your blogging or are finally ready to stop procrastinating on that book you’ve always wanted to write, these two great events (and communities) can give you the jolt of motivation you need. NaMo what now? NaNoWriMo and NaBloPoMo are short for “National Novel Writing Month” and “National Blog Posting Month,” respectively. In the first, writers commit to writing a 50,000-word novel between November 1 and November 30; in the second, to…
  • New Themes: Minnow and Cols

    Tammie Lister
    23 Oct 2014 | 8:00 am
    We’re happy to introduce two brand new free themes today! Minnow Designed by Mel Choyce, Minnow is a light, simple theme that puts your social presence front and center. A social links menu is displayed prominently below the site title and logo, so readers can easily find you on your favorite social networks. When activated, the optional Custom Menu or Widget area appear in a slide-out sidebar, making secondary content accessible while keeping the focus on your content. Learn more about the free Minnow theme at the Theme Showcase, or preview it by going to Appearance → Themes. Cols…
  • Longreads’ Best of WordPress, Vol. 7

    Mark Armstrong
    22 Oct 2014 | 10:08 am
    Here it is! A new collection of our favorite stories from across all of WordPress. As always, you can find our past collections here. You can follow Longreads on WordPress.com for more daily reading recommendations, or subscribe to our free weekly email. Publishers, writers, you can share links to your favorite essays and interviews (over 1,500 words) on Twitter (#longreads) and on WordPress.com by tagging your posts longreads. 1. What Happens When a Veteran High School Teacher Becomes a Student for the Day Grant Wiggins “I waited fourteen years to do something that I should have done my…
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    EconomicPolicyJournal.com

  • The Machines, Madmen And Morons Are Raging at the Bank of Japan

    31 Oct 2014 | 10:50 pm
    By David Stockman This is just plain sick. Hardly a day after the greatest central bank fraudster of all time, Maestro Greenspan, confessed that QE has not helped the main street economy and jobs, the lunatics at the BOJ flat-out jumped the monetary shark. Even then, the madman Kuroda pulled off his incendiary maneuver by a bare 5-4 vote. Apparently the dissenters——Messrs. Morimoto, Ishida, 
  • EPJ Week In Review - Week Ending 10/31/14

    31 Oct 2014 | 10:49 pm
    Below you'll find everything that has been published on EPJ for the week ended Friday October 31, 2014. The hottest posts for each day are highlighted in red. Friday 10/31/14 Bank of Japan Puts Money Printing on Steroids Bitcoin Foundation’s Executive Director Resigns The Beginning of the End of Dominance for the U.S. Dollar Free Markets Are Much More Fun Than Government
  • It's Hard to Understand How College Professors, Like Paul Krugman, Don't Recognize That There is Spectacular Inflation in Some Sectors...

    31 Oct 2014 | 6:12 pm
    ...especially those connected to special government support programs, such as education. The below charts the CPI Index for all item versus the CPI for Educational books and supplies.
  • How and When to Follow Up After a Job Interview

    31 Oct 2014 | 5:10 pm
    By James Caan I often speak about showing commitment to a job search. It’s never enough to just send out applications and go to interviews – you need to go the extra mile every single time. Something which not many people do is follow up after an interview. As an employer, I always think highly of candidates who do this and I wonder why more of them don’t. Now more than ever, we are in a
  • European Union Bank Stress Test Shortfalls

    31 Oct 2014 | 3:58 pm
    I do not believe European Central Bank stress tests measure fully the risk to banks during a full-fledged financial crisis. That said, it is instructive to consider the EU banks which failed even the limited definitions of stress measured by the ECB.
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    Carl Futia

  • Guesstimates on October 31, 2014

    31 Oct 2014 | 6:17 am
    December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1996-2018. Last night the Bank of Japan announced an expansion in its quantitative easing program. This sent the ES two points above its September highs. I think the market will stall here and react at least 20-25 points and probably closer to 50 points. But once this reaction is complete the ES should resume its advance to the 2090 target. QQQ: Upside target is 102. TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the…
  • Attention Traders

    30 Oct 2014 | 10:51 am
    As you know I have started to post the S&P E-mini trades I make in my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime  on this blog's Twitter feed (at the top of the right hand column). You can follow me here on Twitter for free but keep in mind that the trade postings are delayed 5-10 minutes. Since I started posting these trades in October 2013 they have generated  a 43% return trading a single contract per $10,000 of account equity (a very conservative approach since day trade margin on a single contract is only about $2,700). Since the start of the seminar 42 months ago the trades made in…
  • update

    30 Oct 2014 | 10:29 am
    Last week I explained why I thought that the October 15 low ended the drop from the September high. Since then more evidence has developed to support this view.First all three of my favorite trend indicators (top three charts) have climbed back above their 50 day moving averages (green lines). As long as two of the three remain above their 50 day averages I think the move up from the October low will continue. Failing this, I think any drop from the high of the current rally will end visibly above the 200 day moving averages (red lines).The fourth chart down from the top shows the 10 day…
  • Guesstimates on October 30, 2014

    30 Oct 2014 | 6:09 am
    December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1962-1982. I think that the averages are headed above their September highs. QQQ: Upside target is 102. TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 120. Dollar-Yen: Next stop is 112.  December Crude:   I think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down to 70 at least.  December Gold:…
  • Guesstimates on October 29, 2014

    29 Oct 2014 | 6:13 am
    December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1968-1988. I think that the averages are headed above their September highs. QQQ: Upside target is 102. TNX (ten year note yield): I think that  a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 120. Dollar-Yen: Next stop is 112.  December Crude:   I think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down to 70 at least.  December Gold:…
 
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    True Economics

  • 1/11/2014: Few Signs of Fiscal Reforms in Europe

    31 Oct 2014 | 6:01 pm
    My article on Euro area Government debt levels - the lack of any moderation in thereof - is out: http://www.compasscayman.com/cfr/2014/10/31/Few-signs-of-fiscal-reform/
  • 31/10/2014: Eurocoin Falls Again in October

    31 Oct 2014 | 3:04 am
    Meanwhile, in the vastly-repaired, improvingly-coordinated, enhancely-harmonised Euro area, leading growth indicator, Eurocoin (published by Banca d'Italia and CEPR) posted another (4th consecutive monthly decline in October, falling from massively anaemic 0.13 in September to even more anaemic 0.08 in October.The projected underlying GDP growth rate is now back at zero, having posted a 'recovery' to 0.1% in Q3 2014.And the ECB is now even more stuck in the proverbial dark corner of near-deflation, zero growth and zero interest rates:The drivers to the downside?Industrial production is down…
  • 29/10/2014: ABN AMRO on Emerging Europe's Economic Woes

    29 Oct 2014 | 11:53 am
    ABN AMRO gloomy outlook for Emerging Europe region came out yesterday. Here are some highlights as related to Russian economy:Over the past months, emerging Europe has increasingly faced headwinds.Two core factors selected by ABN AMRO for these: Russian economy weaknesses and "weaker-than-expected performance of the eurozone, emerging Europe’s main trading  partner". In particular, "this can for instance be seen in Poland, where exports to the EU have slowed noticeably"."All in all, according to our emerging Europe GDP tracker, annual growth in the region  fell to 1.1% yoy in Q3,…
  • 28/10/2014: US News & WR: Global University Rankings

    28 Oct 2014 | 9:18 am
    US News & World Report published their first global Universities rankings: http://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/rankingsAnd the numbers are pretty much disastrous for Ireland:No Irish University in top 100. No Irish University in top 1-199. Best ranked Irish university is 210th (TCD). Only one Irish university in top 250. Only two Irish universities in top 300. Only 3 Irish universities in top 500...Here are the 'neighbourhoods' for TCD: For UCD: And for UCC:Nothing else to comment...See other rankings links…
  • 28/10/2014: Buffett’s Magic: Cheap Leverage and Risk Control

    28 Oct 2014 | 3:34 am
    My new post on Warren Buffett's investment 'style' is available on http://blog.learnsignal.com/?p=102
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    Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

  • New Residential Construction Report: September 2014

    17 Oct 2014 | 1:01 pm
    Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed mixed results with total permit activity and total start activity improving while single family permit activity declined since August.Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, declined 0.5% from August to 624K single family units (SAAR), but increased 1.1% above the level seen in September 2013 and still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005.
  • Retail Sales: September 2014

    15 Oct 2014 | 7:25 am
    Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales showing mixed results in September with sales dropping 0.3% from August but rising 4.3% on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services. Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales declined slightly, falling 0.14% from August but rising 2.16% above the level seen in September 2013 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales…
  • Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – October 15 2014

    15 Oct 2014 | 6:57 am
    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications. The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases. The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate…
  • Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls and Civilian Unemployment September 2014

    3 Oct 2014 | 9:27 am
    Today's Employment Situation Report indicated that in September, net non-farm payrolls increased by 248,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 236,000 jobs while the civilian unemployment rate declined declined to 5.9% over the same period.Net private sector jobs increased 0.20% since last month climbing 2.25% above the level seen a year ago and climbing 1.61% above the peak level of employment seen in December 2007 prior to the Great Recession.
  • Employment Situation: Unemployment Duration September 2014

    3 Oct 2014 | 9:23 am
    Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed mostly improved in September while still remaining distressed by historic standards.Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more declined to 2.954 million or 31.9% of all unemployed workers while the median term of unemployment increased to 13.3 weeks and the average stay on unemployment went declined to 31.5 weeks.
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    The Economic Populist

  • Should Billionaires be Taxed for Social Security?

    Bud Meyers
    31 Oct 2014 | 12:12 pm
    Everybody is picking on the multi-billionaires. The beggars (aka "the takers") are always holding out their hand and constantly demanding more — a living wage or a minimum wage, healthcare insurance, paid sick days, vacation days, safety regulations, equal pay for women, pension contributions ... the list goes on and on. When will it ever stop? And can multi-billionaires even afford these unreasonable demands without tanking the entire economy? Share
  • Another Strong Quarter for GDP, Q3 3.5%

    Robert Oak
    30 Oct 2014 | 3:23 pm
    Third quarter 2014 real GDP came in at a strong 3.5%.  This is the second quarter in a row for solid economic growth.  Q1 showed a contraction  Take a good look for Q3 GDP will be revised and we estimate strongly downward as imports come into the Census for tabulation.  Private inventories contracted, hence investment was much less than Q2.  Consumer spending was also tamer.  Overall Q3 GDP was surprisingly solid. Share
  • Graphing American Wage Statistics Is Not a Pretty Picture

    Robert Oak
    27 Oct 2014 | 7:21 pm
    The rich get richer and income inequality in America continues to grow in 2013.  The wage situation improved from 2012, but it's still pretty bad.  The median wage was $28,031.02 in 2013 a paltry 1.9% increase from 2012.  While the ratio of median wage to average wage improved, the 110 super rich are now earning 2595 times more than average workers. Share
  • Baby Boomers -- with a little help from their capitalist "friends" - transform getting old into a sexy new fad.

    sylvia kronstadt
    26 Oct 2014 | 3:57 pm
    Share
  • Inflation Deceptive, CPI 0.1% Yet Some Items Off the Charts

    Robert Oak
    22 Oct 2014 | 3:24 pm
    The monthly Consumer Price Index increased 0.1% for September.   CPI measures inflation, or price increases.  September shows relief at the pump while steak lovers are hurting.  Core inflation is below the Fed's target point.  Yet while the monthly inflation number seems low, the situation is actually much more of a mixed bag, in part due to the way CPI is tabulated. Share
 
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    Stock Trading To Go

  • STTG Market Recap October 31, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    31 Oct 2014 | 4:44 pm
    Indexes continue into rarified air as short term overbought conditions have not mattered. Today the Japanese central bank acted and the knee jerk reaction is to always buy when central banks act. The S&P 500 gained 1.17% and the NASDAQ 1.41%; both indexes gapped up at the open and never looked back. Original post: STTG Market Recap October 31, 2014 Read the full article at... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap October 30, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    30 Oct 2014 | 4:55 pm
    Market indices continue to act well as morning weakness is met with strong buying; the type of action you want to see. The S&P 500 gained 0.62% and the NASDAQ 0.37%. There was some good economic data as the Commerce Department reported gross domestic product grew at a 3.5% annual rate in the third quarter, bolstered by a smaller trade deficit and a rise in defense spending. Original... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap October 29, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    29 Oct 2014 | 4:53 pm
    It was a generally quiet day for the markets, especially considering it was a Fed day which usually leads to a lot of volatility. Big picture, we've regained almost all of recent losses in the major indexes but stand short term overbought. A bit of rest would be healthy. The S&P 500 fell 0.14% and the NASDAQ 0.33%. The Fed statement was not as dovish as most expected as the... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap October 28, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    28 Oct 2014 | 4:16 pm
    Indexes gapped up at the open and built on that all day as the S&P 500 jumped 1.19% and the NASDAQ 1.75%. In economic data a gauge of consumer confidence hit 94.5 in October, versus an 87 estimate, while orders for goods meant to last at least three years unexpectedly declined 1.3 percent in September. Tomorrow afternoon we will hear from the Fed; all expectations are for an end to QE... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • 5 Key Ways Tagging Your Trades Improves Your Results

    Blain Reinkensmeyer
    28 Oct 2014 | 5:34 am
    As many of you know I am a huge proponent of post trade analysis. Logging your completed trades and tracking performance is critical to long term success.Recording the buy and sell date, writing notes, capturing a screenshot of the stock chart, and using R multiples are several examples of the variables that make up successful post trade analysis. One other very important variable I want... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
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    WILLisms.com

  • Wendy Davis Burned Through Her Out-Of-State Money, Can't Compete Down The Stretch

    Will Franklin
    6 Oct 2014 | 7:56 pm
    Texas Democrat Wendy Davis reported a miserable $3.2 million cash on hand today in her gubernatorial campaign's coffers, along with $2.5 million more combined from three other committees. Republican Greg Abbott, meanwhile, reported more than thirty million bucks cash on hand, without aid from any other committees (click image for a larger version): Political Science professor Mark P. Jones of Rice University noted over the summer that for Wendy Davis to be even remotely competitive, she would need to spend at bare minimum $10 million in the final month. Here's the quote from the article:…
  • On Socialism. And Wendy Davis.

    Will Franklin
    8 Sep 2014 | 1:55 pm
    Socialism, as defined (above) by Google. Note the synonyms. It's a loaded word in political discourse, evoking emotional reactions in many, but socialism seems to have lately (and quite suddenly) lost all meaning to post-Cold War kids. Indeed, in a recent CBS/New York Times poll, only 16% of millennials could even say what socialism is, while only a still-embarrassing 30% of those aged 30 and up could define it (57% of Tea Partiers knew about socialism, by contrast). Meanwhile, socialism itself has been mainstreamed as perfectly acceptable within the Democratic Party, while those who warn…
  • Texas Political Enthusiasm Gap Continues.

    Will Franklin
    30 May 2014 | 11:04 am
    After the March primary elections in Texas, it was clear that Democrats, particularly Wendy Davis, had a serious problem. An enthusiasm gap. Well, the runoff election this week exposed further weakness in the Democrats' plan to turn Texas blue-- or even a bit purplish-- in 2014. Here's why: (click for larger version) Approximately 200,000 more people voted in the Republican runoff (~750K) in May than voted in the Democrat primary (~550K) in March. Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton each received more votes in the Republican runoff than Wendy Davis earned in the Democrat primary. More people voted for…
  • Not All Bonds Pass: An Analysis Of Eanes I.S.D.'s Failed Bond Proposal.

    Will Franklin
    12 May 2014 | 5:57 pm
    Total new debt for fast growth Texas school districts passed over the weekend: $3,880,386,500 #TxLege— Scott Braddock (@scottbraddock) May 12, 2014 Actually, statewide, the total was more than $6 billion. And, as the Texas Public Policy Foundation noted, prior to this weekend’s bond elections, Texas’ local governments had already amassed almost $325 billion in total debt, enough red ink to soak every man, woman, and child in the Lone Star State with more than $12,000 of local debt obligation. Across Texas over the weekend, small numbers of voters approved billions of dollars in new…
  • Forgotten Time Capsule From 1966 Discovered During Home Renovation. What Happened Next Will Make You Cry.

    Will Franklin
    3 Apr 2014 | 4:50 pm
    First off, apologies for the obnoxious Upworthy/Buzzfeed type of headline. But this really is a bit of a tear-jerker, in many ways. A woman in Arizona created a time capsule in 1966 and buried it in the walls of her home. Nearly fifty years later, it was discovered during a home remodel. A few things about this jumped out at me. First, it is a sad story, obviously, because the woman died tragically in the 1970s, and the husband (who had moved out of the home long ago) had no idea the time capsule even existed until just now. Now, maybe the political contents of the letter might have made the…
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    Political Calculations

  • Beware the Grim Reaper This All Hallow's Eve!

    31 Oct 2014 | 1:10 am
    How would you react if you were enjoying a nice day at the park, when suddenly, you realized that the Grim Reaper was flying behind you, following your every move? And for those who insist on knowing how the evil magic is done, here is the video again, but explained by its creator.... HT: Core77. Happy Halloween!
  • Did U.S. New Home Sale Prices Fall in September 2014?

    30 Oct 2014 | 1:24 am
    Now that we've had to go to some effort to work out how the median household income in the U.S. has evolved over the last several months from payroll tax collection data, we're going to put those estimates to work today to get a better insight into the U.S. real estate market for new homes. What we found suggests that September 2014 wasn't as positive as some news reports have claimed. Here, reports that the number of new single family homes reached a six year high in September would suggest that things are going swimmingly for the new home market in the U.S. The problem is that the median…
  • Divining Median Household Income from Payroll Tax Data

    29 Oct 2014 | 1:20 am
    Can we use monthly payroll tax collection data to reasonably approximate the median income being earned by U.S. households? That's the problem we were really seeking to solve when we found that payroll tax collection data is a lagging indicator of recessions for the U.S. economy, but is perhaps a real-time indicator of positive growth conditions. The reason that's a problem is because our primary source for monthly median household income data, Sentier Research, has temporarily suspended its monthly reports, on account of extensive changes the U.S. Census Bureau has made in its monthly…
  • Can Tax Collections Predict Recessions?

    28 Oct 2014 | 12:56 am
    Can monthly tax collection data predict recessions? That's a question we realized we could answer as we went about solving a different problem. In working on that other problem, we were looking at the U.S. Social Security Administration's data on the taxes it collects each month to fund Part A of the Medicare program (hospital insurance), where we noted that the amount of taxes collected showed a cyclical pattern - one that seemed to correspond to recessions. That's significant because Medicare's Hospital Insurance tax is levied against all wage and salary income earned by Americans and has…
  • The Weeks That Were and Will Be with the S&P 500

    27 Oct 2014 | 1:01 am
    Last Friday, we had a bit of fun as we made a big deal out of our having correctly anticipated the course of the S&P 500 during the preceding week. The chart below, excerpted from The Upshot (via Barry Ritholtz), shows why that was such a big deal. The ability to anticipate or cope with volatility is one of the major tests of any model of real world phenomena. In the case of our model of how stock prices work, there are two primary causes of volatility with which we're concerned: Special cause variation, where we observe changes in stock prices that are either consistent with identifiable…
 
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    Calafia Beach Pundit

  • Japan shakes things up

    31 Oct 2014 | 8:31 am
    Back in early January of last year I had a post titled "The biggest news is the weaker yen." Japan had shocked the world with news that it was finally getting serious about stimulating its economy. Perhaps most important was the news that the BoJ wanted to reverse the decades-long, relentless strengthening of the yen. The perpetually strong and stronger yen was the source of Japan's deflationary slump (even though there wasn't much actual deflation). A continually rising yen was strangling Japan's manufacturers and exporters, since they were continually forced to lower their prices to compete…
  • $2 trillion GDP shortfall

    30 Oct 2014 | 9:56 am
    Third quarter real GDP grew somewhat faster than expected (3.5% vs. 3.0%), and on top of the 2nd quarter's 4.6%, that gives us annualized growth of just over 4%. Wow: has economic growth really ramped up than much? I'd like to think things have improved a bit of late, but in any event it's premature to reach that conclusion—we'll need to see at least another quarter's worth of stronger growth to be sure.Abstracting from the quarterly numbers, which are always volatile, real GDP growth over the past two years has been 2.3% annualized (see chart above). It's also been 2.3% annualized since…
  • QE3 R.I.P.

    29 Oct 2014 | 3:32 pm
    Today the Federal Reserve confirmed what the bond market has been expecting for many months: QE3 has ended, effective this week. What we don't know yet, however, is whether the end of QE3 will lead to another round of economic and financial market distress like we saw after the end of QE1 and QE2. I think we'll be OK this time around, because several key indicators today look a lot healthier than they did when QE1 and QE2 ended.But first, let me point out once again that the real purpose of QE was not to print money or stimulate growth. It was to "transmogrify" notes and bonds into T-bill…
  • Climbing the latest wall of worry

    28 Oct 2014 | 2:01 pm
    As I mentioned about three weeks ago, stocks have been climbing walls of worry throughout the recovery which began some 5 ½ years ago. Almost every selloff in the past two years has been accompanied by/caused by an emotional response to new or recurring sources of uncertainty and fear. The latest wall of worry was built on a foundation of concern for the health of the Eurozone, the Chinese economy, and the spread of Ebola.But as long as the economy avoids a recession, it is hard to keep stock prices down, especially when cash yields almost nothing and earnings are robust. If the fears aren't…
  • How I see things

    27 Oct 2014 | 4:57 pm
    A quick recap of how I see the current state of markets and the economy:Inflation: Contrary to the expectations of many monetarists, including myself, inflation remains subdued. This can only mean that monetary policy has not, contrary to what most believe, been "stimulative." Inflation happens when the supply of money exceeds the demand for it; that we haven't seen higher inflation is proof that the Fed has not been printing money, as I've long argued. Quantitative Easing has been all about swapping bank reserves (T-bill substitutes) for notes and bonds. Demand for safe assets like…
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    Donald Marron

  • A “Normal” Budget Isn’t Really Normal

    Donald
    20 Oct 2014 | 7:15 am
    Treasury closed the financial books on fiscal 2014 last week. As my colleague Howard Gleckman noted, the top line figures all came in close to their 40-year averages. The $483 billion deficit was about 2.8 percent of gross domestic product, for example, slightly below the 3.2 percent average of the past four decades. Tax revenues clocked in at 17.5 percent of GDP, a smidgen above their 17.3 percent 40-year average. And spending was 20.3 percent, a bit below its 20.5 percent average. Taxes, spending, and deficits thus appear to be back to “normal.” If anything, fiscal policy in 2014 was…
  • The $300 Billion Question: How Should Congress Budget for Federal Lending Programs?

    Donald
    29 Sep 2014 | 9:48 am
    Lending programs create special challenges for federal budgeting. So special, in fact, that the Congressional Budget Office estimates their budget effects two different ways. According to official budget rules, taxpayers will earn more than $200 billion over the next decade from new student loans, mortgage guarantees, and the Export-Import Bank. According to an alternative that CBO favors, taxpayers will lose more than $100 billion. Those competing estimates pose a $300 billion question: Which budgeting approach is best? As I document in a new report and policy brief, the answer is neither…
  • Four Myths about Entrepreneurship

    Donald
    17 Sep 2014 | 1:40 pm
    Dane Stangler at the Kauffman Foundation debunks four myths about entrepreneurship: Spoiler: 20-somethings make headlines, but founders in their 30s and 40s are more important. (Disclosure: The Kauffman Foundation funds some of my research at the Urban Institute.)
  • Does the Export-Import Bank Make or Lose Money?

    Donald
    10 Sep 2014 | 9:00 am
    Suppose your aunt decides to start a business making pizza ovens. She will design and build the ovens, and her daughter will manage operations. A bank is ready to lend her $100,000 to get started, but it wants someone to co-sign and be on the hook if she misses any payments. She offers to pay you $6,000 to do so. A business-savvy friend tells you that missed payments on such a loan average $2,000, usually less, occasionally much more. He also reports that $7,000 is the going rate for co-signing. Those insights spark lively family debate. Your aunt believes her proposal is a no-brainer. She…
  • How Economic Insights Shaped the Web Economy

    Donald
    30 Aug 2014 | 2:22 am
    In this TEDx talk, Bob Litan shows how economic insights shaped the web economy, from dating to search to travel to logistics.
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    Supply and Demand (in that order)

  • PCE growth

    31 Oct 2014 | 8:47 am
    Personal consumption expenditure per capita has grown only 1.1 percent over the past 12 months
  • Cook County ballot is full of on contested elections

    27 Oct 2014 | 9:00 pm
    Even the cook county board president is running unopposed. Not exactly free entryhttp://econfaculty.gmu.edu/wew/syllabi/Econ811JournalArticles/BeckerJLE.pdfClick for JLE pdf
  • Radio interview with Kudlow and Batchelor

    15 Oct 2014 | 7:30 am
    Jumps to 19:46Download
  • How Obamacare Begets Gender Inequality

    7 Oct 2014 | 9:48 am
    How Obamacare Begets Gender InequalityBy Casey MulliganIn the past four decades, millions of American women have entered the workforce, sought out new occupations, and embarked on professional careers. In fact, by 2013, just 18 percent of working women worked only part time. This marks a sharp reversal of conditions in 1975, when men did the vast majority of full-time work, while women were less likely to be employed at all and nearly a quarter worked 20-hours per week or less.These gains in gender equality are threatened by two provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) ironically…
  • Labor Market Jumps in September

    3 Oct 2014 | 8:33 am
    The labor market really jumped in September. Part of this is rounding error on weekly hours, which went to 34.6 after six consecutive months at 34.5 (the jump from 34.4 to 34.5 can be seen by comparing January and March of this year. In Jan of this year average weekly hours jumped from 34.3 to 34.4). But it is still surprising because the jump is more than twice the amount created by rounding error.
 
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Boo! Who’s afraid of availability bias?

    Andrew
    31 Oct 2014 | 6:36 am
    Just in time for Halloween: I came across this 2-minute video by Brian Zikmund-Fisher, a professor of Health Behavior and Health Education at the University of Michigan, and I took a look because I was curious what he had to say. The video is called “Why aren’t we more scared of measles?” and has the following description: Measles is one of the leading causes of death amongst children worldwide. In 2012, an estimated 122,000 people died of the disease according to the World Health Organization – equivalent to 14 deaths every hour. Yet talk to parents about this highly…
  • Was it really necessary to do a voting experiment on 300,000 people? Maybe 299,999 would’ve been enough? Or 299,998? Or maybe 2000?

    Andrew
    30 Oct 2014 | 6:18 am
    There’s been some discussion recently about an experiment done in Montana, New Hampshire, and California, conducted by three young political science professors, in which letters were sent to 300,000 people, in order to (possibly) affect their voting behavior. It appears that the plan was to follow up after the elections and track voter turnout. (Some details are in this news report from Dylan Scott.) The Montana experiment was particularly controversial, with disputes about the legality and ethicality of sending people an official-looking document with the Montana state seal, the…
  • Statistical distribution of incomes in different countries, and a great plot

    Phil
    29 Oct 2014 | 5:21 pm
    This post is by Phil Price. This article in the New York Times is pretty good, and the graphics are excellent…especially the interactive graphic halfway down, entitled “American Incomes Are Losing Their Edge, Except at the Top” (try mousing over the gray lines and see what happens). The plot attempts to display the statistical distribution of incomes in about 10 different countries. That alone is not so easy; one natural idea is to display a bunch of histograms in a small multiples plot. But the plot also tries to show how each of the distributions has changed since 1980. I…
  • I love it when I can respond to a question with a single link

    Andrew
    29 Oct 2014 | 6:46 am
    Shira writes: This came up from trying to help a colleague of mine at Human Rights Watch. He has several completely observed variables X, and a variable with 29% missing, Y. He wants a histogram (and other descriptive statistics) of a “filled in” Y. He can regress Y on X, and impute missing Y’s from their fully observed X values (from the posterior predictive distribution). If he wants a histogram of the “filled in” Y, what would you recommend to him? Is there a good way to display this, taking the uncertainty in the imputed Y’s into account? My reply:…
  • Body-slam on the sister blog

    Andrew
    28 Oct 2014 | 7:57 pm
    John Ahlquist and Scott Gehlbach nail it. The post Body-slam on the sister blog appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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    Capital Chronicle

  • World Economic Outlook, 2014: forecasting made easy

    9 Oct 2014 | 5:57 am
    Three econometricians are out hunting. They spot a stag. Given this is a story about economists let us assume it is a deaf stag.The first econometrician aims, fires but misses to the left by a metre. The second econometrician takes aim, fires and also misses - but by a metre to the right. The third econometrician does not take aim or fire. Exultant, he cries out "Nailed it!"Visually this joke appears thus: Source: Page 26, World Economic Outlook, Oct 2014 (IMF)  
  • Uncertainty vs risk: S&P500 volatility since 1929

    7 Jul 2014 | 1:49 pm
    This from Goldman Sachs' Top of Mind Global Macro Research report of 25 Jun, 2014:Although the detail within the GS report is balanced this shorter and sharper piece from the FT's Underground Economist distills the debate with no great loss of message.(And that Professor Bloom paper the FT cites is here)
  • Curse of Reinhart & Rogoff strikes Piketty

    23 May 2014 | 11:28 pm
    If only Mr. Rogoff had waited a couple of weeks before reviewing Mr. Piketty's opus here the result might have been far more entertaining (as well as thought-provoking).Why? Mr. Piketty got the R&R treatment from the FT this week (right here, you may have to register to see). Some of the criticism is about data sources; some is about data adjustments; and some concerns data selection. But the underlying question is about the combination of these and their subsequent interpretation.The New York Times captures that last point when commenting on this graphic from the FT piece written by…
  • What do you have to do to lose your US banking license?

    1 May 2014 | 5:04 am
    More anti-bank developments reported here by Dealbook featuring, amongst others, Preet Bharara the US attorney in Manhattan. It was Bharara who took down Galleon and saw that Rajaratnam got jail time. After that conviction Bharara said:“The message today is clear — there are rules and there are laws, and they apply to everyone, no matter who you are or how much money you have.” Now he (and others) are seeking to walk the talk by bringing criminal charges against two foreign banks operating in the US.Tough ask? Law breaking and deception by banks have only been met to date with…
  • When PIIGS and BRICS aren't enough

    2 Apr 2014 | 6:11 am
    Yes, the metaphoric jargon jungle has expanded to include EAGLES and Nests according to BBVA research. Nice graphics tho:The full Emerging And Growth Leading Economies report with its fearless 10 year forecasts can be enjoyed here.
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    TheMoneyIllusion

  • We’re getting there

    ssumner
    31 Oct 2014 | 5:15 pm
    Commenter Cthorm pointed me to this new regulation from the CFTC: RELEASE: PR7047-14 October 29, 2014 CFTC Staff Provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to Operate a Not-For-Profit Market for Event Contracts and to Offer Event Contracts to U.S. Persons Washington, DC — The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Division of Market Oversight (DMO) today announced the issuance of a no-action letter for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand (University), to operate a not-for-profit market for event contracts, and to offer event…
  • Three widely held theories discredited in 5 minutes

    ssumner
    31 Oct 2014 | 6:54 am
    I woke up this morning to find that my very useful commenters had provided me with information showing that 3 widely held economic theories were discredited last night between 12:45 and 12:50 am.  These theories are Keynesian economics, RBC theory, and the theory of beggar-thy-neighbor policies.  Yes, these theories have been totally discredited dozens of times before over the past few years (or decades if you wish), but piling on is fun! Here’s the first comment, by Cameron: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-31/boj-unexpectedly-boosts-easing-amid-weak-price-gains.html BOJ…
  • Will it matter when the Fed has “traction?”

    ssumner
    30 Oct 2014 | 7:49 pm
    People have made all sorts of arguments against “monetary offset,” but there’s only one that actually makes much sense.  The argument is that the Fed does not like doing “unconventional policies” like QE, because they feel “uncomfortable” with a large balance sheet.  (Put aside the fact that QE is perfectly conventional monetary policy–open market operations—and that there is no reason at all to feel uncomfortable with a large balance sheet.  The Fed is effectively part of the Federal government.) Nonetheless, there is a sort of…
  • Svensson, vindicated.

    ssumner
    29 Oct 2014 | 6:33 am
    I once read a book where Richard Rorty debated another philosopher on the nature of “truth.” Rorty claimed something to the effect that; “Truth was what your colleagues let you get way with.” The other philosopher countered with a hypothetical.  Suppose someone says: “Most people believe X is true, but I believe that Y is actually true.”  Clearly they’d have in mind a different conception of truth.  Rorty countered that claiming something not widely believed is “actually true” is implicitly a prediction that it will be accepted as the…
  • What’s the matter with Kansas? (big government)

    ssumner
    28 Oct 2014 | 4:29 pm
    Kansas elected a governor named Sam Brownback in 2010.  He cut income tax rates, promising faster economic growth.  It didn’t work out, and now he’s in a close race for re-election.  Last summer over at Econlog I focused on the absurd claim that these income tax cuts should be expected to raise revenue.  (Not sure who made them, either actual supply-siders, or liberals like Paul Krugman fantasizing about nutty supply-siders.)  In any case, there is virtually no way a state income tax cut cut could boost state income tax revenue, given how low state MTRs are compared to…
 
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    Jesse's Café Américain

  • Happy Halloween!

    31 Oct 2014 | 4:17 pm
    "Lofty timbers, the walls around are bare, Echoing to our laughter as though the dead were there. Quaff a cup to the dead already, hooray for the next to die."   Abbott And Costello Meet Frankenstein by crazedigitalmovies
  • Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Good Morning Fiat Nam

    31 Oct 2014 | 1:25 pm
    It is a mistake to underestimate the depths of self-serving policy error to which Wall Street and the ruling elite will sink in order to kick the can down the road and maintain their positions of privilege.  Every time I think they can go no further, I am surprised.  Shame on me. The Fed has never seen a bubble it didn't like.  And if the trickle down isn't working, keep doing the same
  • SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - The Fed Has Crossed the Rubicon

    31 Oct 2014 | 1:09 pm
    The Fed very deliberately stopped a market correction and managed to turn the equity markets around, very consciously, in order to end their taper without any negative effects to Wall Street. Last night the Bank of Japan announced a more aggressive quantitative easing AND pledged a portion of their national pension fund to buying not only Japanese equities but also the equities of foreign
  • Bernie Sanders: Breaking Big Money's Grip on US Elections

    31 Oct 2014 | 11:38 am
    Not likely with both major parties swilling at the Big Money troughs, during and after office. The first step will be to get the politicians to care what the people think and want again, and not treat them with such casual disdain and contempt. Breaking Big Money’s Grip on Elections from BillMoyers.com on Vimeo.
  • NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds - Good Morning Fiat Nam!

    31 Oct 2014 | 10:00 am
    Good morning, Fiat Nam! Thanks to Dave and Denali Guide for suggesting that greeting. In case you were wondering what happened overnight, Kuroda and the Central Bank of Japan decided to significantly increase their Quantitative Easing. As you may recall, the Fed and the Japanese Central Bank did a tag team of money printing in the 'recovery' in the 2000's as the US
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    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • Against evidence-based policy

    chris dillow
    31 Oct 2014 | 6:19 am
    What is the case against evidence-based policy? This is one question prompted by David Cameron's refusal to legalize drugs in the face of evidence that criminalization of them doesn't reduce their use. The question, of course, generalizes. Many of us would argue that fiscal policy and immigration policy are also less than perfectly based in the evidence - and no doubt you can think of other examples. There must, therefore, be something to be said against evidence-based policy. But what? One answer lies in something we know from financial decision-making - that greater knowledge…
  • "A culture of mistakes"

    chris dillow
    29 Oct 2014 | 6:27 am
    The Sunderland Echo has a useful phrase - a "culture of mistakes". In fact, such a culture extends far beyond the Mackems. In a world of complexity, bounded rationality and limited knowledge, mistakes are inevitable and ubiquitous. The question, therefore, is not merely how to avoid them but rather: which ones should we make? This question arises in countless contexts. Football teams must choose between playing from the back and so risking the mistake of giving the ball away in a dangerous area against playing it long and so making the more common but less costly mistake of…
  • On false consensus

    chris dillow
    28 Oct 2014 | 7:11 am
    Last night, we saw a great example of how cognitive biases can have catastrophic effects when Corrie's Rob confessed to the World's Most Perfect Woman that he had killed Tina. I suspect he did so because of the false consensus effect - our tendency to over-estimate the extent to which other people are like us. Because he knew that he'd killed Tina, he mistook the WMPW's suspicions for hard knowledge and so broke down in the false belief that he couldn't sustain his denial: the fact that he wanted the WMPW to keep quiet about the murder suggests this, rather than a…
  • Our distorted priorities

    chris dillow
    27 Oct 2014 | 7:17 am
    There's something I find depressing about the response to my post on Russell Brand - that it has received far more attention than almost all my other posts even though many of those are on what I'd regard as more important matters. Now I know that writing about your blog traffic is, to paraphrase Lyndon Johnson, like pissing down your leg: it seems hot to you, but it never does to anyone else. But bear with me, because I fear that this pattern illustrates (at least) three depressing facets of our political life. (I might be committing the journalist's fallacy of drawing general…
  • Russell Brand & our political culture

    chris dillow
    26 Oct 2014 | 6:05 am
    Everyone has been having a pop at Russell Brand. Focusing upon his foibles, however, serves to distract us from some fundamental defects of our political culture. Take these quotes from him: The economy is just a metaphorical device, it’s not real, that’s why it’s got the word con in it. I’m not supposed to get my head around economics, none of us are, it’s designed to be obtuse. Look at those f***ing NASDAQ, FTSE, Dow Jones things... I ain’t got time for a bloody graph… This is the kind of stuff that people like you use to confuse people like us.   These show that Sunny…
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    David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

  • Eurozone starts to look a lot like Japan

    David Smith
    26 Oct 2014 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. How worried should we be about the eurozone? Is the single currency area, the weakest link in the global economic chain since the crisis, about to...
  • Bank may eventually rue leaving rates low for too long

    David Smith
    19 Oct 2014 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Even before the stock market had an attack of the vapours, other factors — a sharp fall in Britain’s inflation rate, renewed weakness in the eurozone,...
  • Time to join the dots on infrastructure spending

    David Smith
    12 Oct 2014 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. How do we build the infrastructure the economy is crying out for and the new housing a growing population sorely needs? Through the haze of the...
  • Don't forget the budget deficit's ugly sister

    David Smith
    5 Oct 2014 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. We have had the two main party conferences and the big revisions to Britain’s economic numbers. We now know the economy’s pre-crisis peak was exceeded in...
  • IEA's shadow MPC votes 6-3 for half-point rate hike

    David Smith
    5 Oct 2014 | 1:59 am
    In its email poll closing Friday 3rd October, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) recommended by six votes to three that Bank Rate should be raised on October 9th, including five votes for a rise...
 
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    Top Gun Financial Planning

  • Pressure Point

    Greg Feirman
    13 Oct 2014 | 4:59 pm
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. Last Thursday and Friday were the worst two days for the markets since February.  The S&P is testing its 200 day moving average (DMA) for the first time in 2 years. Real fear has entered the market for the first time in quite a while.  5 1/2 years into the bull market investors are worried: Is this just a…
  • Riding The Bull

    Greg Feirman
    3 Sep 2014 | 7:47 am
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. Those of you who have followed me over the years know that I was slow to warm to this bull market.  However, in the last year I have evolved and come to embrace it.  I stopped trying to short it (see “The Loser’s Strategy”, August 4, 2013) and decided to invest more in line with what is…
  • Interview With Mint.com

    Greg Feirman
    5 Aug 2014 | 7:10 am
    Check out this short interview I did with Mint.com.  
  • It’s A Bull Market

    Greg Feirman
    16 Jul 2014 | 4:12 am
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. The S&P is up another 1% since I last checked in in early June (“That 2013 Feeling”, June 9) and what I said then still applies.  The path of least resistance continues to be higher. The stock market sold off yesterday on the following comments by Fed Chair Janet Yellen: Valuation metrics in…
  • That 2013 Feeling

    Greg Feirman
    8 Jun 2014 | 7:41 pm
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. Only a few weeks ago the S&P seemed stuck below 1900 and market sentiment had turned bearish.  Star hedge fund manager David Tepper punctuated the bearishness when he told an audience full of investors at the SALT Conference in Las Vegas “Don’t be too frickin’ long”. A few weeks…
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    Project Syndicate RSS-Feed

  • Getting Investment in Europe Right

    Jean Pisani-Ferry
    31 Oct 2014 | 2:20 pm
    The European Commission’s new president, Jean-Claude Juncker, has put public investment back on the agenda with his idea of a three-year €300 billion capital spending plan. But, behind the superficial consensus that more investment would help to strengthen a worryingly feeble European economy, many questions remain unanswered.
  • North Korea’s Nuclear Shadow

    Christopher R. Hill
    31 Oct 2014 | 2:00 pm
    Even as global developments unfold at a dizzying pace, North Korea seems to plod along rather consistently in a sort of Stalinist netherworld. But that netherworld’s growing nuclear arsenal is no laughing matter.
  • The Slow March to Gender Parity

    Laura Tyson, et al.
    31 Oct 2014 | 10:50 am
    Economic policymakers around the world are looking for ways to boost growth, with infrastructure investment topping most lists. But another, often-overlooked remedy is to increase the economic participation and advancement of women.
  • Governing a World Out of Order

    Anne-Marie Slaughter
    31 Oct 2014 | 10:30 am
    In his new book, Henry Kissinger asks whether the world can develop an international order that will keep the peace and allow countries to play by agreed rules. Unfortunately, that is the wrong question.
  • The Single-Engine Global Economy

    Nouriel Roubini
    31 Oct 2014 | 9:20 am
    The global economy is like a jetliner that needs all of its engines operational to take off and steer clear of clouds and storms. Unfortunately, only one of its four engines is functioning properly, the pilots must navigate menacing storm clouds, and fights are breaking out among the passengers.
 
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    zentrader.ca

  • Head’s Up Traders, Here’s Some Star Candy!

    jeff pierce
    30 Oct 2014 | 8:59 pm
    By Astrology Traders Karen here from Astrology Traders, I’ve got some great news and some really important astrology projections that will help you navigate the markets for November. First, we want to welcome Christopher Ebert, full time trader and options specialist to our Astrology Traders Service.  Chris brings his options expertise and educational abilities to our team for traders looking for unique hedging opportunities and lower risk trades.  You can read more about Chris at Astrology Traders November 5, 2014 November 5th is important, I know it’s the day after midterm…
  • Stairs Up And Elevator Down?

    jeff pierce
    29 Oct 2014 | 9:17 pm
    By Poly This is an excerpt from this week’s premium update from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly. Now offering monthly & quarterly subscriptions with 30 day refund. Promo code ZEN saves 10%. This reflex, counter-trend Cycle move, has now added 180 points in 10 sessions, more than eclipsing the 17 session fall that preceded it. They often say that equities take the “stairs up and an elevator down”, which is why I find it very difficult to…
  • Options Define Limit Of “Dead-Cat Bounce”

    chris
    26 Oct 2014 | 5:00 am
    By Chris Ebert If a stock-market participant only knows two things about the options market, these are the two most important truths: Covered Call trading is only unprofitable in a Bear market Long Call trading is only profitable in a Bull market. Of course, the strike prices, expiration dates and holding time of the Call options will have an effect, to some degree. Nevertheless, those two basic rules stand the test of time. Call options are a wonderfully simple and effective indicator for individual stocks as well as the stock market as a whole. If one gets a little more specific with the…
  • Wednesday Chartfest

    jeff pierce
    22 Oct 2014 | 11:20 pm
  • Markets Have Worked Off Bearish Momentum

    jeff pierce
    21 Oct 2014 | 10:16 pm
    By Jeff Pierce Now that the markets appear to have stabilized it’s OK to jump back in long trades…right? I believe the correct answer to be NO, based on that clear lack of leadership, declining volume on rallies, and the fact my timing signals and long term trend remain firmly down. Add on the fact that many weekly charts are starting to roll over on past leaders and it looks less and less likely that the Fed can print their way out of this one. I’m no permabear but I also don’t like how momentum stocks reacted over the last 3-4 weeks and without any new leadership…
 
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    NEW ECONOMY

  • Before the Zombie Apocalypse—These 4 Trade Deals Were Ravaging the World!

    James Trimarco
    29 Oct 2014 | 11:39 am
    This time of year, the fabric that separates our world from prowling ghouls is at its thinnest. But what really keeps us at YES! Magazine up at night are the international trade agreements constantly being negotiated by the United States and its partners—each one more terrifying than the last. These deals have a way of favoring corporations over people. How can something as pleasant-sounding as “free trade” be more threatening than a zombie apocalypse? The devil’s in the details, and the fine print on some of these agreements is enough to curdle a bucket of blood. Whether it’s…
  • Own the Change: Building Economic Democracy One Worker Co-op at a Time

    Kayla Schultz
    24 Oct 2014 | 12:10 pm
    "We moved from land ownership to home ownership, and it's time we move to workplace ownership." While many companies were cutting jobs during the recession, worker owned co-ops were growing and hiring employees. Not only do workers own a part of the business, but they are involved in decisions, and share responsibilities. This video, a trailer from a collaboration between GRITtv and the Toolbox for Education and Social Action, highlights the difficulties in developing a worker owned co-op, but those difficulties do not outweigh the benefits. A community develops in the workplace where co-op…
  • LA School District Uses Its Spending Power to Support Local Farms, Workers’ Rights, and Kids’ Nutrition

    J. Mijin Cha
    17 Oct 2014 | 4:05 pm
    This article is presented as part of New Economy Week, five days of conversation around building an economy that works for everyone. Today’s theme isThe New Economy Is Close to Home Photo by Brittany Randolph / Flickr. We face two equally urgent and significant crises: rising inequality and climate change. Rising inequality is not only morally unacceptable; it also hinders economic growth. Climate change is already impacting every part of the country, with low-income communities and communities of color getting hit first and worst. Fighting these two battles will require a fundamental…
  • Beating Climate Change by Retooling the Economy—The Story Begins in Navajo Country

    Mary Hansen
    17 Oct 2014 | 3:15 pm
    Photo by Scott* / Flickr. “I grew up without running water,” Nichole Alex, a young woman from Dilkon, Ariz., says in a video released by the activist group Black Mesa Water Coalition. Alex grew up on the Navajo reservation in the rural Black Mesa region of Arizona, where for decades a controversial coal mine emptied the region’s aquifer, leaving local wells dry. Many climate justice activists are refusing to be limited by the “jobs or the environment” dichotomy. “I grew up traveling 20 miles to gather water,” Alex continues. “That’s not fair, that my community is being…
  • After Years Without a Grocery Store, Greensboro Neighbors Are Building One Themselves—And They’ll Own It

    Dave Reed
    17 Oct 2014 | 12:10 pm
    This article is presented as part of New Economy Week, five days of conversation around building an economy that works for everyone. Today’s theme isThe New Economy Is Close to Home A still from a video in which residents of northeast Greensboro speak about their support for the Renaissance Food Co-op. In the late 1990s, the local Winn Dixie that had served the neighborhoods around Philips Avenue for many years closed down. Winn Dixie and other large grocery chains had divided up market territory, resulting in the closing of some stores despite their profitability. The loss of this Winn…
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    Central Bank News

  • Central Bank News Link List - Oct 31, 2014 - Kuroda's easing in Japan seen adding to pressure on Korea's Lee

    centralbanknews.info
    31 Oct 2014 | 12:22 pm
    Here's today's Central Bank News' link list click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.Kuroda's easing in Japan seen adding to pressure on Korea's Lee (Bloomberg)Fed's Kocherlakota defends dissent, cites drop in inflation outlook (Reuters)ECB Visco: Deflation, recovery risks persist in eurozone (MNI)Robertson calls monetary policy like Japan’s ‘dangerous’ (Bloomberg)Fed’s…
  • Mexico holds rate on unchanged inflation, growth outlook

    centralbanknews.info
    31 Oct 2014 | 9:59 am
        Mexico's central bank maintained its benchmark target for its interbank overnight rate at 3.0 percent, as expected, saying the balance of risks for inflation and economic activity were unchanged from its previous monetary policy decision in September.    The Bank of Mexico, which surprised markets by cutting its rate by 50 basis points in June, said it still expects annual headline inflation to end this year around 4 percent and converge toward its 3.0 percent target by the middle of 2015.    Although the downside risks to global growth had intensified, the…
  • Russia raises rate 150 bps to curb inflation expectations

    centralbanknews.info
    31 Oct 2014 | 6:42 am
        Russia's central bank raised its key policy rate by a sharp 150 basis points to 9.50 percent, larger than expected by economists, to curb rising inflationary expectations after a fall in the value of the ruble and import restrictions due to international sanctions over Ukraine boosted inflation.    The Bank of Russia, which has now raised rates by 400 basis points this year, also said the expected decline inflation would be slower than it had expected and it would "continue to take measures aimed at stabilizing inflation expectations and slowing down consumer prices…
  • BOJ boosts QE to 80 trln yen to avoid deflation mindset

    centralbanknews.info
    30 Oct 2014 | 10:38 pm
        Japan's central bank raised its target for boosting the country's monetary base by 10-20 trillion yen to about 80 trillion yen to prevent growing deflationary expectations from taking root.    The Bank of Japan (BOJ), which embarked on quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE) in April 2013 by pledging to double the monetary base by buying 60-70 trillion yen of assets a year, said it would now purchase an additional 30 trillion yen worth of government bonds (JGBs) compared with the past "with a view to encouraging a decline in interest rates across the entire yield…
  • Central Bank News Link List - Oct 31, 2014 - Russia seen raising interest rates despite weak economy

    centralbanknews.info
    30 Oct 2014 | 9:29 pm
    Here's today's Central Bank News' link list click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.Russia seen raising interest rates despite weak economy (Reuters poll)BOE Cunliffe: See no inflationary pressure in UK econ – radio (MNI)Former Fed chief Greenspan worried about future of monetary policy (WSJ)China’s c. bank data implies up to $82 bln in short-term injections in…
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    Business Insider

  • CAF meet over Ebola-clouded Cup of Nations

    David Legge
    31 Oct 2014 | 11:25 pm
    Johannesburg (AFP) - When and where the 2015 Africa Cup of Nations will be staged should be resolved within days amid pleas from hosts Morocco to postpone the tournament over the Ebola epidemic.The virus has claimed almost 5,000 lives this year, almost all in west African countries Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).Morocco fear a potential influx of several hundred thousand supporters from the other 15 finalists could spread the epidemic.African football body CAF will hold a meeting of their executive in Algeria on Sunday and 24 hours later…
  • Canada's new human rights museum shares oral histories

    Michel Comte
    31 Oct 2014 | 11:00 pm
    Winnipeg (Canada) (AFP) - A new museum in Canada's western prairies has amassed a unique collection of personal stories from genocide survivors, human rights defenders and others, and wants to share them.Dedicated to the 60-year-old notion of human rights, a singular but intricate ideal, the Canadian Museum for Human Rights in Winnipeg, Manitoba will open its doors on November 11.It was conceived by now-deceased mogul Izzy Asper, who once controlled CanWest Global Communications Corp, one of the world's largest media empires.Over the past 15 years, the project has attracted both praise and…
  • Australia confident of Antarctic marine reserve in 2015

    31 Oct 2014 | 10:53 pm
    Sydney (AFP) - Australia said on Saturday it was confident its plans for a marine reserve to protect biodiversity in East Antarctica would succeed next year, after international talks in Hobart failed to agree on the measure.The Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) meeting closed late Friday with the 25 members unable to reach consensus on two Marine Protected Areas (MPAs).Australia's joint proposal with France and the European Union for reserves in East Antarctic waters was blocked by China and Russia, as was another put forward by New Zealand and the…
  • Many Of The Military's Top Leaders Can’t Stand The Retired General Leading The Anti-ISIS Coalition

    Paul Szoldra
    31 Oct 2014 | 8:50 pm
    One would think a man with four stars on his collar leading U.S. forces in Afghanistan just one year ago would have no problem working with military leadership in the fight against militants of the so-called Islamic State at present. But for retired Marine Gen. John Allen, who was appointed by President Obama in September as special envoy to lead the global coalition to counter the militant group, that calculus has been wrong. An article posted at Foreign Policy on Thursday by Mark Perry lists a surprising number of detractors to Allen's appointment, including many in and out of uniform. The…
  • Apple Pay fails to unify fragmented market

    Rob Lever, with Sophie Estienne in New York
    31 Oct 2014 | 8:07 pm
    Washington (AFP) - Apple Pay, meant to inject momentum into a fragmented market for the emerging mobile payments sector, has instead highlighted the squabbles between retailers and the banking and payments industry.Since Apple Pay made its debut October 20 for US customers with the iPhone 6, several major retailers have said they would not use it. That includes number one retail group Wal-Mart and the large pharmacy-retail group CVS, which has disabled payment terminals that could accept Apple Pay."You're never going to come up with anything as smooth (and) as easy as Apple Pay. But if you…
 
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    Business + Economy – Articles – The Conversation

  • Government in a rush to make the wrong decision on submarines

    Goran Roos, Professor of Business and Strategic Design at Swinburne University of Technology
    30 Oct 2014 | 6:03 pm
    Defence Minister David Johnston has offshore-produced submarines in his sights. Lukas Coch/AAPIn the last week, Defence Minister David Johnston has flagged a “capability gap” if the next fleet of submarines is designed and built in Australia. “We are under such time constraints to avoid a capability gap and I cannot afford to not have submarines in the water,” he told Sky News. “This country cannot afford that.” It is the first time such urgency has been prioritised; it has hit the headlines with dramatic effect. In this case, however, the Coalition’s stance requires scrutiny,…
  • Economics hijackers could do with a history lesson

    Simon Ville, Professor of Economic and Business History at University of Wollongong
    30 Oct 2014 | 12:07 pm
    Who's afraid of a little economic history? johnwilliamsphd/Flickr, CC BY-NC-SABehind every economic policy initiative lies a narrative justifying that course of action: immigration increases unemployment; public debt is unsustainable; manufacturing is interminably declining; city growth is out of control. We have many “narrators” driving these discussions of economics – the media, political parties, public sector bodies, business and indeed universities – each with their own set of interests and values. Unfortunately, among these claimants, the voice of economic history has…
  • The 100-member rule may be gone, but shareholder activism is here to stay

    Julie Walker, Associate Professor in Accounting at The University of Queensland
    29 Oct 2014 | 8:57 pm
    Activists have a range of options available to them to voice their anger at a company's decisions. Dan Peled/AAPAs part of its program to cut red tape and bureaucracy, the Australian government is set to repeal the 100-member rule. The rule contained in the Corporations Act forces a company to hold a general meeting on the request of shareholders with (a) at least 5% of the votes that may be cast at the general meeting; or (b) at least 100 members who are entitled to vote at the general meeting. Only part (b) of the rule will be scrapped under the proposed bill, so shareholders with 5% or…
  • Do the crime, do the time? Not if you're a banker in Australia

    Philip Soos, Researcher, School of International and Political Studies at Deakin University
    29 Oct 2014 | 12:12 pm
    The performance of ASIC in regulating financial fraud remains under question, despite Chairman Greg Medcraft's recanted statement that Australia is a "paradise" for white-collar criminals. Britta Campion/AAPRecently, the head of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, Greg Medcraft, called Australia a “paradise” for white-collar criminals. Soon after he recanted, claiming he didn’t want the country to become a haven for financial fraudsters. This rephrasing likely followed when Finance Minister Mathias Cormann leaned on Medcraft. The mass media has done an…
  • When the G20 rolls into Brisbane, what are businesses insured for?

    Allan Manning, Adjunct Professor at Victoria University
    29 Oct 2014 | 12:09 pm
    In the lead-up to the London G20 summit in 2009, many businesses were boarded up, and some removed company logos from their premises. Scott Burnham/Flickr, CC BY-NC-SAWhen the G20/G8 summits moved on from Toronto in 2010, they left an US$11 million bill in business compensation claims. To minimise the effect of preparations on businesses preparing for next month’s G20 leaders summit in Brisbane, November 14 has been declared a public holiday for people working in the local government area. A major rally is being planned for Saturday 15th at Emma Miller Place (Roma St) and subsequently…
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    SurvivalBlog.com

  • Notes for Saturday – November 01, 2014

    Hugh James Latimer
    31 Oct 2014 | 8:44 pm
    November 1st, 1923, was the birthday of science fiction writer Gordon R. Dickson (born 1923, died January 31, 2001). Many of his novels and short stories, such as Wolf and Iron, have survivalist themes. November 1st is also the birthday of economist Martin A. Armstrong. For many years he was a prisoner of conscience, in part because he refused to turn over his proprietary trading algorithms to Federal prosecutors. After seven years in prison without a trial, the longest Federal incarceration for contempt in American history, Armstrong was finally put on trial in a proceeding that was branded…
  • Slimming Down, by Dan from Alaska

    Hugh James Latimer
    31 Oct 2014 | 8:43 pm
    No, this is not an article on weight loss, though it should be; I need to take off a bunch of pounds. It’s more about how I readjusted my lifestyle and budget after a loss of a paycheck. Both my wife and I have been working steadily since our teens, and I consider us to not be rich, per se, but in the comfortably middle class. We have been married for the past 10 years, and we both met each other at work. That is when I first heard the moniker, DINK– Dual Income No Kids. As I stated, we lived comfortable though it wasn’t lavish. We tried to just live off one paycheck, while the…
  • Letter: A Two Year Experiment

    Hugh James Latimer
    31 Oct 2014 | 8:43 pm
    Two years ago I buried cash and silver coins on some property I own as an experiment to see how well the cash and silver would fare. Oct 31st 2014 was the day it was recovered. The vessel was a white plastic PVC pipe about 6” round and about 1.5 feet long capped and sealed with PVC Glue. The cash was placed in standard zip lock sandwich bags and a moisture absorber pouch was placed in each. The silver was placed in the standard coin tubes you receive when buying 20 coins at a time. No absorbers were placed in the tubes of coins. Also, no absorbers were placed in the general compartment…
  • Economics and Investing:

    Hugh James Latimer
    31 Oct 2014 | 8:42 pm
    UK finance ministry says takes orders for first renminbi bond. – G.G. o o o Slowly but surely. The pace seems to be picking up though. China puts a new nail in dollar coffin as it begins direct trade with Singapore. – A.H. o o o Items from Mr. Econocobas: Greenspan: Fed Can’t Exit Without Turmoil Why Did Q3 GDP Jump: Thank ISIS And The “War On Terror” U.S. Homeownership Rate Falls to Lowest Since Early 1995
  • Odds ‘n Sods:

    Hugh James Latimer
    31 Oct 2014 | 8:42 pm
    Several Readers sent in this link to the Paratus Familia Blog: The Benefits of Islam o o o I’m terrified of my new TV: Why I’m scared to turn this thing on — and you’d be, too – T.P. o o o Ebola protection report. – K.H. o o o FEMA Pandemic Exercise Series. – P.M. o o o Discovery Channel Watchmen: Comment. – RBS
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    Trading Heroes

  • 3 Simple Ways To Develop Forex Trading Confidence

    Hugh Kimura
    28 Oct 2014 | 8:34 pm
    If you are having trouble taking trades or exiting trades because you don't have confidence in your trading method, these three simple methods can get you back on track. Try them all or use the one that works best for you. The post 3 Simple Ways To Develop Forex Trading Confidence appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • CAD JPY Oil Correlation Explained

    Hugh Kimura
    14 Oct 2014 | 2:46 pm
    Watching crude oil prices can help you fine tune your trading in the CADJPY currency pair. This post will show you why these currencies are so highly correlated to oil and how you use this to your advantage. It is not an exact science, but if you know what to look for, there are clues. The post CAD JPY Oil Correlation Explained appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • How To Do A Metatrader Sync Between Multiple Computers

    Hugh Kimura
    7 Oct 2014 | 11:21 am
    If you use multiple computers and want your Metatrader setup to remain the same across all of them, this is the easiest method that I have discovered for doing this. This post will show you how to set it up in just a few minutes and also give you the limitations of this method. The post How To Do A Metatrader Sync Between Multiple Computers appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • How To Find Out If You Are Paying Forex Chart Tax

    Hugh Kimura
    30 Sep 2014 | 10:37 am
    There is a hidden trading tax that some traders may not notice. Many times it is small, but sometimes it can make a huge difference. Find out how to avoid paying this tax in this post. The post How To Find Out If You Are Paying Forex Chart Tax appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • The Anatomy of Going on Tilt

    Hugh Kimura
    23 Sep 2014 | 8:22 am
    I went on tilt late last year and it has taken me awhile to come back from it. This post will analyze what I did, what I should have done and how you can prevent yourself from doing the same thing. You will also be able to see my current trading results and I would love to hear about your experiences. The post The Anatomy of Going on Tilt appeared first on Trading Heroes.
 
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    OpenMarkets

  • MARKET UPDATE: OCTOBER COMES TO A CLOSE

    OpenMarkets
    31 Oct 2014 | 2:05 pm
    The end of the month has arrived and we’re seeing a mark to market with with billions of dollars in synthetic positions replicating the action in the stock market.  Jack explains why the futures contract is marked to an artificial settlement.
  • Water, Not Economic Reform, is Brazil’s Next Challenge

    Blu Putnam
    30 Oct 2014 | 12:36 pm
      Brazil re-elected incumbent Dilma Rouseff of the Worker’s Party (PT) as its President for the next four years.  The mandate in this election was much smaller than her victory in 2010.  This time around she squeaked out a 3 percent margin of victory compared to 12 percent four years ago.  It was an extremely tough fought election, with the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) and its candidate, Aecio Neves, making it a very close race.  The election also displayed the divided nature of the electorate, with the poorer regions voting heavily for Rouseff, while voters in the more…
  • How Will Mexico’s Energy Reform Impact Its Growth?

    Dawn Kissi
    29 Oct 2014 | 3:47 pm
    Energy reform in Mexico is taking shape. The swiftness in which a presidential promise survived a Congressional vote and was signed into law shows that Mexico, a major manufacturer and provider of goods to the United States, is ready for investment and to turn around a nearly century old stalemate in the country’s energy sector. State owned PEMEX has been the sole oil producer in the country since 1938, but with reforms on the horizon, Mexico’s economy is sure to be impacted in what consensus views as only a positive for the country.  There will be more international and regional…
  • MARKET UPDATE: FED DAY

    OpenMarkets
    29 Oct 2014 | 2:53 pm
    Jack discusses how today’s Fed announcement effects the forex market which will trickle down to interest rate and equity markets.
  • Monday Outlook: Brazil at the Forefront

    OpenMarkets
    27 Oct 2014 | 3:44 pm
      On top of what will be two heavily watched central bank meetings (U.S. and Japan), Brazil is at the forefront of markets this week after Dilma Rousseff was re-elected as the country’s President over the weekend. The election is already impacting Brazil’s financial markets and its currency, the real.  We’ll be watching that this week, as well as the impact central bank meetings might have on some already volatile markets. Tuesday: U.S. FOMC Meeting Begins 8:00 AM ET   Wednesday: U.S. FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:00 PM ET U.S. Dairy Product Sales 3:00 PM CT   Thursday…
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    eWallstreeter

  • Close on GDP, but No Nostradamus

    31 Oct 2014 | 10:44 pm
    As Barron’s had predicted, the economy grew at a 3.5\% annual clip in the third quarter, but not for the reasons we expected.
  • We’re getting there

    31 Oct 2014 | 5:15 pm
    Commenter Cthorm pointed me to this new regulation from the CFTC: RELEASE: PR7047-14 October 29, 2014 CFTC Staff Provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to Operate a Not-For-Profit Market for Event Contracts and to Offer Event Contracts to U.S. Persons Washington, DC — The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Division […]
  • Copying the Texas Margin Tax is a Bad Idea

    31 Oct 2014 | 3:00 pm
    Next week, Nevada voters will cast their ballots and decide whether or not Nevada will institute a margin tax. The tax is a modified gross receipts tax (a type of tax only five other states have) and is modeled after the Texas margin tax. Last March, I explained two big reasons why the Texas margin tax is the poster child for poor tax policy: it’s overly complicated and it’s not neutral. Both explanations are worth repeating here: Overly complicated tax calculations create compliance and a
  • Could Non-Citizens Determine the Outcome of the Midterm Elections?

    31 Oct 2014 | 1:30 pm
    Here's the question of the day: Could Non-Citizens Determine the Outcome of the Midterm Elections? Some elections, especially for Senate are so close, the unfortunate answer is "yes" as the following video insight from Insight from the Libre Institute explains.Mike "Mish" Shedlockhttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong perfo
  • Fed Watch: Another Kocherlakota Dissent

    31 Oct 2014 | 12:53 pm
    Tim Duy: Another Kocherlakota Dissent, by Tim Duy: Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Narayana Kocherlakota released a statement regarding his dissenting vote at this week's FOMC meeting. He does not share his colleagues faith that inflation will return to target anytime...
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    richardblundell.net

  • Employee engagement: where even the strongest brands like Virgin get it wrong

    Richard
    18 Oct 2014 | 9:20 pm
    In today's world of commoditised products, the human service element that provides the customer's emotional connection to a brand, has to be part of the whole package. Not ignored by the marketing team who just focus on brand assets and messaging, and not subject to additional payment.
  • Will the market price of data insight fall? The supply-demand economics of personal data

    Richard
    9 Jun 2014 | 4:09 am
    The commercial successes of the information era are those companies like Google and Facebook who have managed to monetise consumer’s personal information. These companies have not only benefited from the amount of personal data that is now available, they’ve also encouraged consumers to share more of it. Will there come a time however when the […]
  • Apple – the luxury goods company

    Richard
    31 May 2014 | 12:29 am
    Apple’s $3.2bn purchase of Dr Dre’s Beats Music could signal the start of a new strategy for Apple – the shift from a consumer electronics company, to a house of luxury brands Why buy Beats? Most of the noise in the media this week suggested that Apple had bought Beats for its music streaming service. […]
  • Retail metrics for a multi-channel world

    Richard
    12 May 2014 | 2:10 am
    We used to know what to look for when assessing the performance of a retail business: Like for like sales growth (i.e. excluding effect of opening extra selling space) Sales per square metre (or foot) of selling space Stock turns (annual value of stock sold (COGS) divided by value of stock held at a point […]
  • AO World shows a tech and retail stock bubble is forming

    Richard
    1 Mar 2014 | 11:29 pm
    AO World (Appliances Online) may be an online only retailer, but there isn't enough growth to justify a 163x price earnings multiple.
 
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    The Last Embassy

  • ACA/Obamacare: Same Zebra with the Same Stripes?

    W.E. Heasley
    24 Oct 2014 | 4:42 am
    ‘If there is one thing Republicans and Democrats agree on it’s this: Obamacare represents a radical change in the US health care system. Soon after its passage, some on the left declared that we had created a right to health care for the first time in our history. Some on the right predicted death panels and a march toward socialized medicine. But what if they are all wrong? Is it
  • ACA/Obamacare: Cancellations and Confusion in Colorado

    W.E. Heasley
    22 Oct 2014 | 2:02 am
    “DENVER—The Colorado Division of Insurance announced Friday a surge in health-care policy cancellations in the wake of Obamacare, just what Democratic candidates in high-profile races didn’t need less than three weeks before Election Day. In a letter to state Senate Republicans, Colorado insurance commissioner Marguerite Salazar said that more than 22,000 Coloradans received cancellation
  • ACA/Obamacare: The Affordable Care Act and the New Economics of Part-Time Work by Casey Mulligan

    W.E. Heasley
    14 Oct 2014 | 8:24 am
    “Starting this year, the United States’ working population will face three major employment disincentives resulting from the very benefits the Affordable Care Act (ACA) provides: (1) an explicit tax on full-time work, (2) an implicit tax on full-time work for those who are ineligible for the ACA’s health insurance subsidies, and (3) an implicit tax that links the amount of available subsidies
  • ACA/Obamacare: Covered California’s No-Bid Contracts

    W.E. Heasley
    14 Oct 2014 | 2:11 am
    “California's health insurance exchange has awarded $184 million in contracts without the competitive bidding and oversight that is standard practice across state government, including deals that sent millions of dollars to a firm whose employees have long-standing ties to the agency's executive director. Covered California's no-bid contracts were for a variety of services, ranging from
  • ACA/Obamacare: Schemes Tend to be Complicated and to Become More Complicate as Time Passes

    W.E. Heasley
    11 Oct 2014 | 2:42 am
    Assume for a moment you are one of the many millions that have already procured an on-exchange health insurance policy through Healthcare.gov. Yes, assume for a moment you were one of the persistent people that had the patience to pass through seventy six web-based pages of data collection on a highly glitch prone web site and acquired a health insurance policy. One would assume you weathered
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    Columbia Business School: Ideas At Work RSS

  • Is Your Team Too Talented?

    30 Oct 2014 | 7:40 am
    Too much talent — on the court or in the office — can drive down team performance, new research shows.
  • Want to Grow Your Retirement Savings? Then Forget About It.

    23 Oct 2014 | 1:01 pm
    New research shows that the less frequently investors check their portfolios, the better off they are.
  • Low Rates, Big Spending?

    15 Oct 2014 | 10:37 am
    Six years after the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve and other central banks are still looking for answers to whether the unconventional monetary policies adopted following the crisis — including lowered interest rates — have been effective in helping American households and the larger economy. The persistence of so many debt-burdened households, widespread unemployment, and relatively low economic growth has only increased the debate among economists and policymakers.
  • Do Rate Cuts Matter?

    9 Oct 2014 | 10:15 am
    New research takes on the question of how much monetary policy affects the economy.
  • Converging on Startup Success

    7 Oct 2014 | 7:07 am
    In conversation, Damon Phillips and Evan Rawley discuss why entrepreneurship resists easy study and how their research is tackling some of the biggest questions in the field.
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    FTMDaily.com

  • Chart: The Impact of Fed’s QE on the S&P 500

    Jerry Robinson
    31 Oct 2014 | 10:29 am
    Are we in for another sharp correction only to be "saved" by QE4? [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • Boost Your Portfolio Income With MLPs (Subscriber-Only Video)

    Jerry Robinson
    29 Oct 2014 | 1:35 pm
    Jerry Robinson provides an overview of the brand new FTM Insider menu. Then he explains the advantages and disadvantages of investing in Master Limited Partnership (MLPs). [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • Precious Metals Market Update: Swiss Plan to Back Currency With Gold Gains Steam

    Tom Cloud
    29 Oct 2014 | 12:58 pm
    Switzerland's plan to move to a gold standard will be big for precious metals. China and Russia are likely to follow in the near future. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • The Bitcoin Revolution: What You Should Know (FTMQuarterly Release!)

    Jennifer Robinson
    29 Oct 2014 | 8:12 am
    Bitcoin is a digital currency that provides a way to send money from person-to-person without using a bank or middleman. Here's what you should know before getting started with Bitcoin. Plus, 33... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • The American Illusion of Prosperity

    Jerry Robinson
    28 Oct 2014 | 9:30 am
    On this week's show, Jerry Robinson exposes America's economic house of cards and provides his latest market insights. Plus, an update for gold and silver investors. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
 
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    Exchange Rates UK - Currency News

  • Pound Euro FX Rate Today: Will GBP/EUR Near Best Exchange Rate Levels?

    Tom Trevorrow
    31 Oct 2014 | 12:00 pm
    With virtually no economic data released in the last 24 hours, the Pound Sterling (GBP) remained confined to tight ranges against a lot of its major counterparts such as the Euro (EUR) with price movement driven by a number of external factors. There was no major event risk this week in the UK to drive price movement for the Pound,... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Pound to Dollar Exchange Rate Today: Best USD/GBP in Two Weeks, Cable Forecast to Slide Further

    Tony Redondo
    31 Oct 2014 | 3:00 am
    The Dollar to Pound exchange rate (USD/GBP) rose strongly to reach the best conversion in two weeks after the announcement from the US Federal Reserve that it is ending its third bond buying programme, commonly known as QE3. Of interest, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as the US Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee is called... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • British Pound Exchange Rate Falls vs Dollar on US GDP Data; Euro Under Pressure

    Adam Solomon
    31 Oct 2014 | 3:00 am
    The British Pound came under further selling pressure against the US Dollar on Thursday, retreating towards 1.5950 GBP/USD, primarily due to wider Dollar strength following the bullish statement released by the FOMC on Wednesday evening. The Pound to Euro exchange rate remained broadly unchanged but did manage to push through 1.27 EUR,... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Aus Dollar Forecast: GBP AUD Exchange Rate to Continue Uptrend From Swings in Risk Aversion

    Tom Trevorrow
    30 Oct 2014 | 4:00 pm
    The Aus Dollar exchange rate (AUD) advanced on the Pound today as the Australian currency continued to find support from renerwed risk appetite. The Pound had dropped back against the majority of its major counterparts, including the Aussie Dollar on Wednesday as disappointing data weighed on price movement for the British currency.... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • NZ Dollar FX Forecasts: NZD vs GBP, EUR, USD & AUD Exchange Rates Trend Lower after RBNZ Decision

    Colin Lawrence
    30 Oct 2014 | 9:30 am
    The NZ Dollar exchange rate (NZD) tumbled vs the Euro (EUR), UK Pound (GBP) and Australian Dollar (AUD) as forex investors digested some dovish commentary from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand However, the Aus to NZ Dollar exchange rate (AUD/NZD) holds fairly firm today after demand for the Aussie was diminished by the FED's QE... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
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    BusinessClimate.com Blog

  • Airports and Site Location: New Lift for HQs

    Bill McMeekin
    29 Oct 2014 | 3:30 am
    How ’bout them airports? In the age of the global economy, airports and site location go together like a tray table locked in the upright position. Proximity to a major airport, especially one that offers international service, has become one of the key metrics in a location decision for a headquarters. A hub airport, same-day turnaround abilities and the number of direct flights to key destinations can tilt a location decision. It certainly matters to the major corporations. Some 40 percent of Fortune 500 headquarters are in range of one of the 10 busiest airports in the U.S. When…
  • Placemaking: Investing to Draw and Keep Talent

    Bill McMeekin
    22 Oct 2014 | 12:51 pm
    Livability and talent recruitment have become the conjoined twins of economic development. If you want to have a puncher’s chance of drawing talent to your community, you need to encourage creation of the environment that appeals to them. This  conscious effort at placemaking  is both a talent recruitment and business recruitment strategy. Quality of place attributes are integral to attracting and keeping talent, and a deep pool of talent will be a key selling point for bringing new investment to a community. And it is not the sole province of large cities with developed urban cores…
  • Back to the Burbs: More Millennials Settling Outside Cities

    Emily McMackin
    17 Oct 2014 | 6:00 am
    Cities like San Francisco, Boston, New York, Chicago and D.C., may be known for attracting Millennials, but it’s the smaller towns outside of the largest cities that are seeing the fastest growth among young professionals, according to a study published on NewGeography by economist Joel Kotkin. Between 2010 and 2013, the number of 20- to 29-year-olds in the U.S. rose by 4 percent, but the percentage of residents in this demographic living in core cities grew by only 3.2 percent, the study noted. Why are cities losing 20-somethings, while suburbs and smaller towns are gaining them?
  • Price of Productivity: Manufacturing Wages Spike in Industrial States

    Emily McMackin
    10 Oct 2014 | 6:36 am
    Manufacturing is becoming more lucrative than ever before, especially for workers in industrial states. As unemployment rates fall and shortages for niche technical skills rise, companies are increasingly shelling out more to money attract and retain workers, a new Wall Street Journal report notes. In Texas, for example, wages for all types of production workers in factories grew an average of 6.3 percent from the year before, spurred in part by the energy boom there. Other states where manufacturing wage growth has spiked include Washington, Oregon, Indiana and Michigan – all states driven…
  • Gown Helps Town: Universities and Economic Development

    Bill McMeekin
    8 Oct 2014 | 3:30 am
    A winning formula for a desirable place to live includes a major university. That’s no secret. Take a look at the upper echelon’s of Livability.com’s Top 100 Best Places to Live for proof. An overwhelming majority of communities at the top of the ranking have a major university in their backyard, including No. 1 Madison, home of the flagship campus of the University of Wisconsin. If universities and livability make good companions, so to do universities and economic development. It must be true because there’s even an association to promote such working relationships…
 
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    Latest blog entries

  • Don't Fear the Robots: Automation is a Good Thing

    19 Oct 2014 | 2:57 pm
    Uncreative minds are at it again, riding that ancient saw telling us innovation will put us all permanently out of a job. Admittedly, automation and innovation will eliminate certain jobs, and at times it can appear hopeless, but the computer revolution is but the fart of a gnat when compared to the industrial revolution. We've weathered far more drastic revolutions of labor and capital in the past, for the better, and this time isn't different. In the 1700's, a group of people called Luddites, decided that the power loom was the very end of their livelihood, and that the best course of…
  • Ebola Coming to Europe Next

    23 Sep 2014 | 7:00 pm
    Even as I write, a ship is steaming directly to Amsterdam from the hot zone of the worst Ebola epidemic of all time. It's an ordinary cargo ship, and in a week or two, its crew will be downing beers and visiting the local talent of one of Europe's biggest port cities. The worst part is, it's not the only one. A flotilla of cargo ships leave from Europe each month to visit a variety of West African ports. The last of these ports, terrifyingly, are in each of the Ebola-stricken countries. As if it were perfectly intentional, these ships return straight away to Hamburg or Amsterdam for more…
  • Vladmir Putin: King of the Trashtalkers

    20 Sep 2014 | 2:35 pm
    I'm pretty down on government officials, elected or otherwise, I make no secret of it. But, I do love to watch a good game, and I can appreciate a master when I see one. While Vladimir Putin is a despot extraordinaire, he is awfully good at what he does. Truth be told, Michael Jordan wasn't paid millions in sponsorships and salary because he could put a ball through a net. He was paid his megamillions because he was fun to watch. If he put people to sleep while playing, no one would know his name. It was his miraculous dunks, his whirling fakeouts and electrifying play that made him a star.
  • Just Wars are Easy to Explain

    7 Sep 2014 | 6:58 pm
    A just war, or a morally justifiable war, should look like a morally (and legally) justifiable killing. The reasoning behind a just war should be quick to explain, with an obvious motive like self defense. It should be nearly impossible to find fault with a just war. By comparison, the longwinded articles that I'm reading on the Wall Street Journal reference Neville Chamberlain, Henry Kissinger, soft power, appeasement and isolationism while trying, and trying hard, to get people to sign the dotted line for another war. It got me to wondering: because the pro-war articles are long, is that…
  • The Ebola Outbreak is Airborne

    4 Sep 2014 | 5:02 pm
    The official party line, offered by the World Health Organization, is that the Ebola virus spreading across Africa (and likely other parts of the world), is that it is spread by "direct contact" with infected body fluids. "Infection occurs from direct contact through broken skin or mucous membranes with the blood, or other bodily fluids or secretions (stool, urine, saliva, semen) of infected people. Infection can also occur if broken skin or mucous membranes of a healthy person come into contact with environments that have become contaminated with an Ebola patient’s infectious fluids such…
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    FT Alphaville

  • The perpetual battle over War Loan

    James Mackintosh
    31 Oct 2014 | 9:54 am
    The British government isn’t renowned for its wonderful financial decisions. But among the best must be the consolidations of perpetual bonds between the two world wars. (Other candidates include the purchase of the Ottoman share of the Suez Canal for £4m in 1875 and the £35,000 paid for the Elgin Marbles in 1816.) But you’d never guess this from reading Friday’s press release from Chancellor George Osborne when he announced that one of the smaller perpetual bonds would be repaid. Here’s what Mr Osborne said:Continue reading: The perpetual battle over War Loan
  • US wage and salary growth inching up, still very slowly

    Cardiff Garcia
    31 Oct 2014 | 9:42 am
    The third quarter was the second straight three-month period showing a favourable trend for US nominal wage and salary growth, though a lot more acceleration is needed before it’s anything to celebrate: Continue reading: US wage and salary growth inching up, still very slowly
  • Your extended Abe put

    Izabella Kaminska
    31 Oct 2014 | 7:06 am
    Earlier on Friday, we noted that one of the most interesting things coming out of Japan on the day was the rumour that the government was about to approve new allocation targets for the world’s largest pension fund, Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), which would increase its exposure to domestic stocks. That rumour has now been confirmed. As Richard Kaye, portfolio manager at the Comgest Growth Japan fund noted, in terms of importance, this far outweighs the BoJ’s decision to raise the monetary base by around Y80tn a year from Y60-70tn and to triple annual…
  • Why banking got out of control in the digital age

    Izabella Kaminska
    31 Oct 2014 | 5:16 am
    Could the real cause of today’s financial malaise have less to do with greedy bankers, bad regulation and poor monetary policy, and more to do with the effects of the information technology age on banking? That at least is the argument proposed in a new book, “The end of banking – money, credit and the digital revolution” by Jonathan McMillan, a collective pseudonym for two authors who are keeping their identities secret, but who hail from the world of banking and academia. Not to say the financial system was free of instability before the IT age, it’s just that…
  • Markets Live: Friday, 31st October, 2014

    Paul Murphy
    31 Oct 2014 | 4:00 am
    Live markets commentary from FT.com Continue reading: Markets Live: Friday, 31st October, 2014
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    Marginal REVOLUTION

  • Pharmaceutical regulation is getting tougher

    Tyler Cowen
    31 Oct 2014 | 11:19 pm
    From Diana Carew at the Progressive Policy Institute: …the number of ‘restrictions’ on drug companies increased by 767, or 40% since 2000. This represents a substantial rise in the overall regulatory burden of pharmaceutical companies, which must allocate resources to ensure regulatory compliance. The word “restriction” refers to command clauses such as “shall” and “must,” as contained in sections of the Code of Federal Regulations related to the FDA. The full study is here (pdf).
  • Himalayan Viagra fuels caterpillar fungus gold rush

    Tyler Cowen
    31 Oct 2014 | 10:55 am
    I don’t myself care about the event, I just liked the headline. A related study is here, and I thank CK for the pointer.
  • Assorted links

    Tyler Cowen
    31 Oct 2014 | 8:43 am
    1. Scott Sumner on demand- and supply-side stagnation.  I also would stress the risk premium as a transmission mechanism linking the two curves. 2. Austin Frakt reviews Google’s Inbox. 3. What the world eats. 4. When DNA is the matchmaker (dubious, in my view). 5. How candy conquered Halloween. 6. The 86-square foot Paris apartment.
  • Is recovery always slow after a financial crisis?

    Tyler Cowen
    31 Oct 2014 | 4:36 am
    That has been the received wisdom, but it is now challenged by a new paper (pdf) by Christina and David Romer: This paper revisits the aftermath of financial crises in advanced countries in the decades before the Great Recession. We construct a new series on financial distress in 24 OECD countries for the period 1967-2007. The series is based on narrative assessments of the health of countries’ financial systems that were made in real time; and it classifies financial distress on a relatively fine scale, rather than treating it as a 0-1 variable. We find little support for the conventional…
  • Was there mismatch unemployment during the Great Recession?

    Tyler Cowen
    30 Oct 2014 | 11:45 pm
    I remember this question being debated extensively circa 2009-2011, and those who said there was a (limited) role for mismatch unemployment were mocked pretty mercilessly.  Well, Sahin, Song, Topa, and Violante have a piece in the new American Economic Review entitled “Mismatch Unemployment.”  (You can find various versions here.)  It’s pretty thorough and state of the art.  Their conclusion:? “…mismatch, across industries and three-digit occupations, explains at most one-third of the total observed increase in the unemployment rate.”  The people…
 
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    Zero Hedge

  • The Story Changes: Ebola Is Now "Aerostable" And Can Remain On Surfaces For 50 Days

    Tyler Durden
    31 Oct 2014 | 7:01 pm
    Submitted by Michael Snyder of The End of the American Dream blog, When it comes to Ebola, the story that the government is telling us just keeps on changing.  At first, government officials were claiming that it was very difficult to spread the Ebola virus.  Some of them were even comparing it to HIV.  We were given the impression that we had to have “direct contact” with someone else’s body fluids in order to have any chance of catching the virus.  But of course that is not true at all.  Now authorities are admitting that Ebola is…
  • A Massive FX Quake Hits Japan: This Is What It Looked Like

    Tyler Durden
    31 Oct 2014 | 6:30 pm
    When central bankers go wild...   h/t @NanexLLC *  *  * Perhaps a better analogy is as follows:
  • Who Will Suffer From A Leveraged Credit Shakeout?

    Tyler Durden
    31 Oct 2014 | 5:27 pm
    Submitted by Charlie Hennemann via CFA Institute blog, Of all the noteworthy moments from the 2014 CFA Institute Fixed-Income Management Conference, the bombshell may have been the default call from Martin S. Fridson, CFA. Fridson, CIO at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, has been a leading figure in the high-yield bond market since it was known as the “junk bond” market — and he sees as much as $1.6 trillion in high-yield defaults coming in a surge he expects to begin soon. “And this is not based on an apocalyptic forecast,” he assured the audience. High-yield…
  • Meanwhile, The French Are Revolting...

    Tyler Durden
    31 Oct 2014 | 4:35 pm
    Amid record unemployment, even recorder youth unemployment, and politicians willingly breaking EU treaties (with apparently no consequences), it appears - just as in the US - police brutality in France was the straw that broke 'Le Camel's back. As RT reports, another anti-police brutality protest turned violent in the French city of Rennes, with masked youths and police engaging in running street battles. The unrest follows the death of a young environmental activist earlier this week. Overnight Thursday, protesters in the northwestern city lobbed flairs at police and flipped over cars, some…
  • The BoJ Jumps The Monetary Shark - Now The Machines, Madmen And Morons Are Raging

    Tyler Durden
    31 Oct 2014 | 4:09 pm
    Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, This is just plain sick. Hardly a day after the greatest central bank fraudster of all time, Maestro Greenspan, confessed that QE has not helped the main street economy and jobs, the lunatics at the BOJ flat-out jumped the monetary shark. Even then, the madman Kuroda pulled off his incendiary maneuver by a bare 5-4 vote. Apparently the dissenters - Messrs. Morimoto, Ishida, Sato and Kiuchi - are only semi-mad. Never mind that the BOJ will now escalate its bond purchase rate to $750 billion per year - a…
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    nextnewdeal.net

  • How Will Georgia Voters Turnout for Equal Pay?

    rgoldfarb
    31 Oct 2014 | 10:55 am
    The Georgia senate candidates' most interesting records on equal pay are in business, and they're worth close attention. Read the other state-by-state analyses in this series here. Early observers pegged the Georgia midterm senate race as one to watch, and they’ve been spot on so far. Democratic challenger Michelle Nunn and Republican contender David Perdue – legacies of two of Georgia’s most established political families who both happen to be from the tiny town of Perry – have been polling neck and neck for the past few weeks. At this point, many project the election in November…
  • Uneven Records on Health Care for Florida's Candidates

    rgoldfarb
    31 Oct 2014 | 5:05 am
    Florida's voters must choose between two candidates who were once members of the same party, which complicates their records. Read the other state-by-state analyses in this series here. Florida’s gubernatorial race is one of the highest-profile elections in the country this year, with incumbent Rick Scott (R) running against former Florida governor – and former Republican – Charlie Crist (D). The race has been incredibly close, with most recent projections showing Scott just a single point ahead of Crist. Women voters could certainly turn the tide for either candidate. Women make up…
  • Still Fighting for Insurance Coverage in Wisconsin

    rgoldfarb
    30 Oct 2014 | 11:33 am
    In the Wisconsin gubernatorial election, Medicaid coverage for 120,000 people hangs in the balance. Read the other state-by-state analyses in this series here. In the upcoming Wisconsin Governor’s election, which may very well turn on women’s votes, Governor Scott Walker (R) and Mary Burke (D) are vying to show women that they have their best interests in mind. Recent polls show the candidates tied statewide, but with women favoring Burke by as many as 14 points and Walker favored by men by as many as 28 points. The two candidates stand in stark contrast on a number of issues vital to…
  • In Colorado, a Question of Personhood

    rgoldfarb
    30 Oct 2014 | 8:49 am
    In Colorado, the Senate race is particularly divided by issues of personhood and the minimum wage. Read the other state-by-state analyses in this series here. In September, a writer for the Denver Post accurately summed up the heated Colorado Senate race: "If Colorado's U.S. Senate race were a movie, the set would be a gynecologist's office, complete with an exam table and a set of stirrups." Perhaps more than in any other state, women’s issues have indeed been front and center in the sparring match between incumbent Senator Mark Udall (D) and Representative Cory Gardner (R). All eyes are…
  • Election 2014: Women's Rights in the Balance

    rgoldfarb
    30 Oct 2014 | 4:51 am
    As the election approaches, a number of close-call races could have disparate impact on women. This piece is the overview in our Election 2014: Women's Rights in the Balance series. The state-by-state analyses, to be published over the course of Thursday, October 30 and Friday, October 31, can be found here. Pundits have long anticipated that women voters would be the deciding factor in many of the midterm races across the United States. This seems only fitting, given that the outcome of many of this year’s races will shape policies and programs that have a disproportionate impact on…
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    Jared Bernstein | On the Economy

  • Halloween Special: How to Scare an Economist!

    Jared Bernstein
    30 Oct 2014 | 2:22 pm
    We econo-types come in lots of different flavors and we all have our demons. Assuming you’d like a Halloween costume that would scare one of us, here’s a handy typology. I even put in a couple of ideas to frighten some of my CBPP friends. Feel free to add others to the comments section. Better yet, put on one of these and take a selfie and, if it’s not too scary, I’ll post it! Type of Economist Scary Costume Microeconomist A Harberger Triangle Macroeconomist An Okun Gap Democrat economist Balanced Budget Amendment Republican economist Rising Debt/GDP ratio (but they’re just…
  • Our steady macro economy and what it means for the Fed

    Jared Bernstein
    30 Oct 2014 | 10:42 am
    The US economy expanded at a nice clip of 3.5% in the third quarter, according to this AM’s report from the BEA. That’s their advance guesstimate based on incomplete data so future revisions may wiggle about some, but it’s pretty consistent with what we expected. It’s also an annualized quarterly rate, whereas my readers know I prefer to pull out something closer to the underlying trend by taking year-over-year changes (e.g., 20013q3-2014q3). That’s what I do in the figure below, and I’ve added in core inflation, payroll employment growth, as well as the unemployment rate. Yes,…
  • Something is not rotten in the state of Denmark: it’s the way they set wages.

    Jared Bernstein
    29 Oct 2014 | 8:58 am
    Over at PostEverything.
  • States that took the Medicaid expansion are seeing slower cost growth and fewer uninsured. The other states are paying a new red state tax.

    Jared Bernstein
    27 Oct 2014 | 3:45 pm
    This deserves more time than I’ve got right now, but be sure to see this post from my CBPP colleague Jesse Cross-Call showing a difference of more than 2 percentage points in projected Medicaid cost growth between states that expanded the program under the Affordable Care Act and those that did not. To give you a little perspective on that cost difference, if it persisted for say, 10 years, it would mean a 27% savings for the expanders relative to the non-expanders. As Jesse notes: While benefiting from slower spending growth, expansion states are…
  • Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE 10/21 — 10/27

    Jared Bernstein
    27 Oct 2014 | 7:09 am
    Discussing the Fed, QE, and the full employment unemployment rate. Looking at Larry Mishel’s wage message at the Boston Fed inequality conference. Listing a few observations re global growth, the US dollar, under-priced oil, and their impact on US growth rates. Analyzing evidence from abroad to explain why it takes more than economic growth alone to reach the middle class. Posting my slides from a talk I gave at the Council on Social Work Education re the economy, poverty, and YOYOs vs WITTs. Explaining how no one, not even the Fed, has done the necessary analysis to explain the question of…
 
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    Freakonomics

  • What Can Vampires Teach Us About Economics? Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    30 Oct 2014 | 7:00 am
    This is a transcript of the Freakonomics Radio podcast “What Can Vampires Teach Us About Economics?“ [MUSIC: Arturo Sacchetti, “Toccata Und Fugue in D Minor” (from Organ Masterworks Stephen J. DUBNER: Levitt, you know, I feel like I know you pretty well. And yet there’s one essential fact about you that I have no idea. And I could guess. And I’d have a 50-50 chance, but I’m just going to ask you: [TWILIGHT MOVIE CLIP] DUBNER: Are you Team Edward or Team Jacob? Steve LEVITT: Team Edward, for sure. DUBNER: Why? LEVITT: So it was a long time ago that I read Twilight, but I had…
  • What Can Vampires Teach Us About Economics? A New Freakonomics Radio Podcast

    Stephen J. Dubner
    30 Oct 2014 | 7:00 am
    (Photo: gaelx) Do vampires employ an optimal strategy in choosing their mates? Would a zombie invasion help create jobs? And what would happen if vampires didn’t have to attack humans to get blood? These are some of the pressing questions we ask in this week’s episode, “What Can Vampires Teach Us About Economics?” (You can subscribe to the podcast at iTunes, get the RSS feed, or listen via the media player above. You can also read the transcript, which includes credits for the music you’ll hear in the episode.) It was inspired by a book called Economics of the…
  • Do Not Read This Unless You Have Already Listened to “Tell Me Something I Don’t Know”

    Stephen J. Dubner
    24 Oct 2014 | 1:42 pm
    Malcolm Gladwell at the debut of “Tell Me Something I Don’t Know.” (Photo: Janice Yi) Our latest podcast is called “Tell Me Something I Don’t Know.” It’s the debut of a live game show with audience contestants and celebrity judges, including Malcolm Gladwell. In the final round, the judges team up with contestants to play for the grand prize. If you’ve already listened, you’ll know that Malcolm and his partner were asked to tell us all something we don’t know about bread, and Malcolm came up with an intriguing fact that, upon a quick…
  • Tell Me Something I Don’t Know: A New Freakonomics Radio Podcast

    Stephen J. Dubner
    23 Oct 2014 | 7:00 am
    A few years ago, I developed a habit. If the person sitting next to me on an airplane seemed like they wanted to have a conversation, I’d ask them a bit about themselves — let’s say they worked in civil engineering — and I’d say “Tell me something I don’t know about civil engineering.” The habit became an addiction. I loved learning stuff I didn’t know, and most people loved to talk about their passions, work-related or otherwise. Soon this addiction fueled a dream: I imagined turning it into some kind of a live game show/talk show. It…
  • Tell Me Something I Don’t Know Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    23 Oct 2014 | 7:00 am
    This is a transcript of the Freakonomics Radio podcast “Tell Me Something I Don’t Know” Stephen J. DUBNER:Hey, podcast listeners. The new episode you’re about to hear is called “Tell Me Something I Don’t Know.” It’s a live recording of a new game show that we just invented. As you’ll hear, it was a lot of fun in person. The hope, of course, as that you’ll have fun listening to it as a podcast. Whatever the case, do me a favor and let us know what you think. You can tweet us @Freakonomics, leave a comment on our Facebook page or at Freakonomics.com, or shoot us an…
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    interfluidity

  • Rational regret

    Steve Randy Waldman
    28 Oct 2014 | 6:05 am
    Suppose that you have a career choice to make: There is a “safe bet” available to you, which will yield a discounted lifetime income of $1,000,000. Alternatively, there is a risky bet, which will yield a discounted lifetime income of $100,000,000 with 10% probability, or a $200,000 lifetime income with 90% probability. The expected value of Option 1 is $1,000,000. The expected value of Option 2 is (0.1 × $100,000,000) + (0.9 × $200,000) = $10,180,000. For a rational, risk-neutral agent, Option 2 is the right choice by a long-shot. A sufficiently risk-averse agent, of…
  • Econometrics, open science, and cryptocurrency

    Steve Randy Waldman
    17 Oct 2014 | 7:29 am
    Mark Thoma wrote the wisest two paragraphs you will read about econometrics and empirical statistical research in general: You are testing a theory you came up with, but the data are uncooperative and say you are wrong. But instead of accepting that, you tell yourself "My theory is right, I just haven't found the right econometric specification yet. I need to add variables, remove variables, take a log, add an interaction, square a term, do a different correction for misspecification, try a different sample period, etc., etc., etc." Then, after finally digging out that one…
  • Scale, progressivity, and socioeconomic cohesion

    Steve Randy Waldman
    11 Oct 2014 | 6:33 am
    Today seems to be the day to talk about whether those of us concerned with poverty and inequality should focus on progressive taxation. Edward D. Kleinbard in the New York Times and Cathie Jo Martin and Alexander Hertel-Fernandez at Vox argue that focusing on progressivity can be counterproductive. Jared Bernstein, Matt Bruenig, and Mike Konczal offer responses offer responses that examine what “progressivity” really means and offer support for taxing the rich more heavily than the poor. This is an intramural fight. All of these writers presume a shared goal of reducing inequality…
  • Links: UBI and hard money

    Steve Randy Waldman
    26 Sep 2014 | 6:33 am
    Max Sawicky offers a response to the post he inspired on the political economy of a universal basic income. See also a related post by Josh Mason, and a typically thoughtful thread by interfluidity‘s commenters. I’m going to use this post to make space for some links worth remembering, both on UBI and hard money (see two posts back). The selection will be arbitrary and eclectic with unforgivable omissions, things I happen to have encountered recently. Please feel encouraged to scold me for what I’ve missed in the comments. With UBI, I’m not including links to…
  • The political economy of a universal basic income.

    Steve Randy Waldman
    19 Sep 2014 | 6:35 am
    So you should read these two posts by Max Sawicky on proposals for a universal basic income, because you should read everything Max Sawicky writes. (Oh wait. Two more!) Sawicky is a guy I often agree with, but he is my mirror Spock on this issue. I think he is 180° wrong on almost every point. To Sawicky, the push for a universal basic income is a “utopian” diversion that both deflects and undermines political support for more achievable, tried and true, forms of social insurance. My argument against UBI is pragmatic and technical. In the context of genuine threats to the…
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    Credit Writedowns

  • QE will end, GDP growth expected at 3.0%, deflator at 1.4%

    Marc Chandler
    27 Oct 2014 | 4:51 am
    By Marc Chandler Drivers for the Week Ahead - This will be a busy week between stress tests and data releases, which markets have taken as positively- Market expectations have settled down, and the Fed is widely expected to announce the finish of QE- Economic news for Europe has been mixed so far, with M3 improving by German IFO disappointing - The initial impact of the Ukrainian and Brazilian elections will be local Price action:  The dollar is trading softer against the majors, but within very narrow ranges.  The yen and the antipodeans are outperforming, while the Scandies are lagging.
  • Are we in a global financial crisis?

    Edward Harrison
    24 Oct 2014 | 3:13 am
    This is an abbreviated version of a post from 17 Oct’s Credit Writedowns Pro With financial markets tanking across the board, there is a whiff of panic and some people might be thinking that the next global financial crisis is already upon us. I don’t think this is the case. Certainly, the European sovereign debt crisis has entered round two but this can easily be overcome. Turbulence and a simmering crisis in Europe, yes. An acute crisis, no. More importantly, despite the recent global growth slowdown, the US and UK economies in particular are still beyond stall speed such that exogenous…
  • The German view of the Euro crisis

    Edward Harrison
    23 Oct 2014 | 9:33 am
    This is an abbreviated version of a post first published at Credit Writedowns Pro on 15 Oct. The Germans got into the eurozone out of a desire to increase European integration and to strengthen Europe as an economic area that rivalled the United States. Yet, now we are in a period where the Germans are being blamed for everything that’s going wrong with the Euro. I think the Germans do deserve some of this blame but not all of it and I want to briefly post why. Consider this an addendum to the other Edward’s piece that was posted just before this one, but from my own somewhat pro-German…
  • The roots of the Italian stagnation

    Guest Author
    22 Oct 2014 | 7:08 am
    This post first appeared at Vox in June By Paolo Manasse It’s currently very trendy in Italy to blame Angela Merkel, Mario Monti, and austerity measures for the current recession. This column argues that while the severity of the downturn is clearly a cyclical phenomenon, the inability of the country to grow out of it is the legacy of more than a decade of a lack of reforms in credit, product and labour markets. This lack of reform has suffocated innovation and productivity growth, resulting in wage dynamics that are completely decoupled from labour productivity and demand conditions. Italy…
  • Does The Secular Stagnation Theory Have Any Sort of Validity?

    Edward Hugh
    22 Oct 2014 | 4:58 am
    By Edward Hugh In a number of blog-posts (Paul Krugman’s Bicycling Problem, On Bubble Business Bound, The Expectations Fairy) I have examined some of the implications of the theory of secular stagnation. But I haven’t up to now argued why I think the hypothesis that Japan and some parts of Europe are suffering from some kind of secular stagnation could well be a valid one. Strangely, while I would suggest the most obviously affected countries are those mentioned above, most of the debate has centered around the US economy. Since it is not at all clear that the US economy is actually…
 
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    Liberty Street Economics

  • At the N.Y. Fed: Macroeconomic Policy Mix in the Transatlantic Economy

    Blog Author
    24 Oct 2014 | 4:00 am
    Moreno Bertoldi, Philip R. Lane, Paolo Pesenti, and Valérie Rouxel-Laxton The reason why the macroeconomic policy mix has been different on the two sides of the Atlantic in recent years remains a hotly debated issue. Was it due to a different reading of the root causes of the global financial crisis and therefore of the type of policy response considered most appropriate? Or was it instead the result of incomplete economic and financial integration in the euro area and the absence of a solid backstop for sovereign and banking sector problems, factors that led the euro area—as put by…
  • Don’t Be Late! The Importance of Timely Settlement of Tri-Party Repo Contracts

    Blog Author
    20 Oct 2014 | 4:00 am
    Adam Copeland and Ira SeligTri-party repo is popular among securities dealers as a way to raise short-term funding. The tri-party repo settlement process has been improved, and continues to be improved, with the implementation of a set of recent reforms. Two main goals of these reforms are to sharply reduce the amount of liquidity needed to facilitate the settlement of tri-party repo contracts, and to increase the use of more resilient sources of liquidity (for example, term financing and committed credit) to ensure that settlement can occur in good and bad times. In this post, we detail how…
  • New York City’s Not-So-Outer Boroughs

    Blog Author
    17 Oct 2014 | 4:00 am
    Jason Bram Ever since the first census of the U.S. population was taken, back in 1790, New York City has been the nation’s largest city, and for most of this time by a factor of more than two. But how has the city—in particular, the city’s boundaries—evolved over time?     In the latter part of the 1800s, New York City comprised the island of Manhattan and a small but expanding portion of what is now the Bronx. It was only after the 1898 consolidation that the city became the five boroughs that delineate it today. Yet today, as then, Manhattan is widely considered…
  • How Do Liquidity Conditions Affect U.S. Bank Lending?

    Blog Author
    15 Oct 2014 | 4:00 am
    Ricardo Correa, Linda Goldberg, and Tara Rice The recent financial crisis underscored the importance of understanding how liquidity conditions for banks (or other financial institutions) influence the banks’ lending to domestic and foreign customers. Our recent research examines the domestic and international lending responses to liquidity risks across different types of large U.S. banks before, during, and after the global financial crisis. The analysis compares large global U.S. banks—that is, those that have offices in foreign countries and are able to move liquidity from affiliates…
  • Historical Echoes: “Burns Money” on What’s My Line?

    Blog Author
    10 Oct 2014 | 4:00 am
    Amy Farber In a May 2014 Historical Echoes post, Marja Vitti describes what happened to money too old to be left in circulation: it was incinerated by the Federal Reserve Banks until passage of the Clean Air Act of 1970, after which the money was shredded. Paper money incineration by a Federal Reserve Bank employee was the subject of a hilarious broadcast of the famous TV quiz show What’s My Line In this broadcast, which aired on June 12,  1960, Thomas Hull, in charge of burning the money for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, steps onto the set, writes his name on the…
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    The Incidental Economist

  • Healthcare Triage News: Ebola and placebos

    Aaron Carroll
    31 Oct 2014 | 8:51 am
    A few more patients are cured of Ebola in the US, and placebos can help kids with the cold. This is Healthcare Triage News: Some further reading for those who are interested: Why is Ebola less deadly in America than in Africa? Placebo Effect in the Treatment of Acute Cough in Infants and Toddlers @aaronecarroll
  • Strangers poisoning kids’ Halloween candy is a myth

    Aaron Carroll
    31 Oct 2014 | 4:00 am
    Those stories of how people are now going to taint kids’ candy with pot are driving me crazy. There’s… no evidence for that. There’s also no evicende that strangers poison kids’ Halloween candy in general. I think this will have to be a yearly tradition. From our first book: As October draws to a close and children begin to pick their Halloween costumes and anticipate candy feasts, a barrage of child safety warnings begins. Among the most frightening for parents and children are the warnings to check candy carefully because of the risk of razor blades, poison, or…
  • The cost of resistance to the ACA in Mississippi

    multiple authors
    31 Oct 2014 | 3:00 am
    This post is co-authored by Bill Gardner and Austin Frakt. In PoliticoMagazine, Sarah Varney details the consequences of Mississippi’s rejection of the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA’s) Medicaid expansion. The background is that it is hard to find a list of state public health or well being indicators where Mississippi doesn’t rank last: Life expectancy. Per capita income. Children’s literacy. There are many social and cultural factors that contribute to Mississippi’s catastrophic public health. One factor is a pervasive lack of health insurance. Small businesses…
  • Yet another blow against the milk-industrial complex

    Aaron Carroll
    30 Oct 2014 | 5:43 am
    Even more evidence that the milk emperor has no clothes. “Milk intake and risk of mortality and fractures in women and men: cohort studies“: Objective To examine whether high milk consumption is associated with mortality and fractures in women and men. Design Cohort studies. Setting Three counties in central Sweden. Participants Two large Swedish cohorts, one with 61 433 women (39-74 years at baseline 1987-90) and one with 45 339 men (45-79 years at baseline 1997), were administered food frequency questionnaires. The women responded to a second food frequency questionnaire in…
  • On Google’s new Inbox

    Austin Frakt
    30 Oct 2014 | 3:55 am
    Google’s new alternative to Gmail is here, and it’s called Inbox, available by invitation only at the moment. You can see Google’s pitch here and read how-to use guides here and here. My tweets on Inbox are here. Joshua Gans has written a review. Mine is below, informed by three days of Inbox use. What I Like For me, Inbox’s killer app is the ability to schedule emails and reminders to return to one’s inbox at a time and/or place of one’s choosing. This is called snoozing. (To date I have only used the time-based reminders, not place-based.) Some…
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    LewRockwell

  • The US’s Vicious Colonial War

    Eric Margolis
    31 Oct 2014 | 10:01 pm
    “Lord of our far-flung battle-line, Beneath whose awful Hand we hold Dominion over palm and pine— Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet, Lest we forget—lest we forget! Far-called, our navies melt away; On dune and headland sinks the fire: Lo, all our pomp of yesterday Is one with Nineveh and Tyre! Judge of the Nations, spare us yet, Lest we forget—lest we forget!” Rudyard Kipling “Recessional” The last British soldiers were airlifted out of Afghanistan last week, marking the sorry end of Britain’s fourth failed invasion of Afghanistan. With them went the last detachment of US…
  • 12 Essential Survival Items

    Scott Kelly
    31 Oct 2014 | 10:01 pm
    Prepping can sometimes cost a lot of money and a lot of you really like when I post about gear (even though you really should be spending your time and money on skills more than stuff). Because my EDC kit (every day carry) – the cheap way article was so popular, I thought maybe you’d appreciate a quick article about some inexpensive things you can get under $10 that are worth more than $10 – and that you could actually find useful. This is an entirely different idea from the 9 freakin’ awesome ideas for your bug out bag article that I wrote previously, which was intended to get…
  • The Biggest Crony Sports Scam of Them All

    Ryan McMaken
    31 Oct 2014 | 10:01 pm
    The 2022 Olympics (i.e., the Winter Games) is now down to only two applicant nations: China and Kazakhstan. This follows the withdrawal of Norway after the taxpayers of Norway balked on ponying up the cash necessary to make the Olympics a playground for the world’s richest cronies and politicians. Theoretically, the Olympics are a private organization, but in practice, it is a corporatist organization run by plutocrats whose mission in life is apparently to squeeze as much tax revenue as possible out of the residents of the countries and cities that host the Olympics. This is done by…
  • The November Wars

    Patrick J. Buchanan
    31 Oct 2014 | 10:01 pm
    As it stands today, Republicans will add seats in the House and recapture the Senate on Tuesday. However, the near-certainty is that those elections will be swiftly eclipsed by issues of war, peace, immigration and race, all of which will be moved front and center this November. Consider. If repeated leaks from investigators to reporters covering the Ferguson story are true, there may be no indictment of Officer Darren Wilson, the cop who shot Michael Brown. Should that happen, militant voices are already threatening, “All hell will break loose.” Police in the city and 90-some…
  • Colds vs. Flus

    Joe Alton
    31 Oct 2014 | 10:01 pm
    Even with today’s modern medical technology, most of us can’t avoid the occasional  respiratory infection.  Without strict adherence to sanitary protocol, it would be very easy in a collapse situation for your entire community to come down with colds, sinusitis, influenza or even pneumonia.  Common colds may be caused by any of 200 different viruses, but the most likely culprit is a type of Rhinovirus (no, you can’t catch it from Rhinos).  Influenza comes from viruses in the Influenza A, B, and C categories. Influenza and Society The societal risk of influenza is significant, mostly…
 
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    Angry Bear

  • Hey, Alison Grimes, why not mention THIS? Ah … because it would require a sentence or two of substantive explanation.

    Beverly Mann
    31 Oct 2014 | 10:04 am
    Given the exceedingly favorable atmosphere for Republicans this fall, McConnell’s direction on Obamacare has been closely watched as he both battles for reelection against Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes and as the GOP prepares for Senate control for the first time since 2006. McConnell’s office said there are multiple avenues that a GOP Senate would have […]
  • Neither John Kasich nor, certainly, Simon Peter will be nominated by the Republicans

    Robert Waldmann
    31 Oct 2014 | 5:38 am
    Republicans remain almost united in their utter rejection of the communist doctrines of one Simon Peter fisherman and trouble maker. Elizabeth Stoker Bruenig explains in Salon I comment I don’t want to exaggerate. It is certainly not true that Kasich’s proposed policy is from “each according to his ability” and “to each as anyone had […]
  • PART TIME EMPLOYMENT

    Spencer England
    31 Oct 2014 | 4:15 am
    The opponents of Obama-care just will not give up. Just because all of their claims of disaster over the last few years have been proven wrong they continue to repeat every claims that they think does not make them look foolish. The latest example is John R. Graham of the Independent Institute who claims that […]
  • Open thread Oct. 31. 2014

    Dan Crawford
    31 Oct 2014 | 4:06 am
  • How to deal with the growing incentives competition

    Kenneth Thomas
    29 Oct 2014 | 6:46 pm
    This article was originally published in the Columbia FDI Perspectives series of the Columbia Center for Sustainable Investment, #131, September 29. I have left it largely unchanged, except for adding a link and a comment, and correcting a grammatical error.   As I discussed in an earlier Perspective,[1] the use of investment incentives is pervasive […]
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    niesr.ac.uk

  • Happier workers, higher profits?

    AlexBryson
    30 Oct 2014 | 3:41 am
    Citizens' wellbeing is rising to the top of the political agenda in Britain.  Just yesterday the government and its partners announced a What Works Centre for Wellbeing which initially has over £3.5 million over three years to investigate the determinants of wellbeing and how to improve it.  This follows government investments in wellbeing metrics developed and pioneered by the Office for National Statistics which, some argue, should be the basis for
  • Can 'Tech North' take off?

    MaxNathan
    27 Oct 2014 | 3:59 am
    Rory Cellan-Jones has a nice article on the BBC website on the prospects for the Government’s ‘Tech North’ initiative, building extensively from my work with Emma Vandore on Tech City in London. Here’s some further thoughts.
  • The real policy challenge - under-utilisation of migrants' skills

    HeatherRolfe
    30 Sep 2014 | 2:46 am
    Much has been made of Ed Miliband’s failure to deliver sections of his conference speech on the economy and on immigration. But he didn’t forget to repeat the policy first announced just before the party’s 2013 conference to require employers to recruit an apprentice for every non-EU migrant they employ:  ‘If you want to bring in a worker from outside the European Union, that’s OK, but you must provide apprenticeships to the next generation’
  • Real Devolution: The Power to Borrow - Reply

    MoniqueEbell
    23 Sep 2014 | 7:30 am
    In our recent paper on devolution we argue that real power requires granting UK regions the ability to borrow in addition to tax and spending powers. In a blog post, Tony Yates suggested that this would in fact create the same mess as the Euro zone.
  • Stubborn facts?

    JonathanPortes
    9 Sep 2014 | 1:57 pm
    Toby Young (Fulbright Lecture, 2014, reported by Laura McInery): Kids can't analyse or think critically without first learning facts
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    Bruegel - Latest Updates

  • Held og lykke, Commissioner Vestager

    31 Oct 2014 | 2:20 am
    Tomorrow, new European Commissioner Margrethe Vestager will take control of the Commission’s most powerful tool: the enforcement of European Union competition law. She will have the power to block mergers or require the sale of companies’ assets for deals go through. She will be able to fine companies that breach antitrust rules up to 10 percent of their global turnover. She can oblige EU member states to take back subsidies granted to firms if the money gives an unfair advantage.The power of the European Commissioner for Competition needs to be exercised with careSuch power needs to…
  • Building Enterpreneurial Ecosystems in Europe

    30 Oct 2014 | 6:25 am
    Policy makers in Europe are seeking ways to create jobs and spur economic growth. Entrepreneurship, particularly the creation of innovative young firms, is needed yet many barriers to the creation and growth of firms remain. This event will highlight some of the barriers and how to address them as well as help identify steps that policy makers can take to facilitate the development of entrepreneurial ecosystems in Europe, which in turn can spur more high growth entrepreneurship.More information of this event will be available soon. Practical detailsVenue: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210…
  • Mapping Competitiveness with European Data

    29 Oct 2014 | 4:13 am
    Competitiveness is at the heart of policy making at the Union level and specifically within the Eurogroup. Definition of new country–level competitiveness indicators is an essential task. This half-day workshop will discuss how to map competitiveness with European data, specifically the future potential of matching data in Europe within and across countries. 9.00-9.30 Registration and breakfast 9.30-12.30 Mapping Competitiveness with European Data 12.30-13.30 Lunch Note that the programme for this event is still under construction. This workshop will be held in the framework of the…
  • Monday blues for Italian banks

    28 Oct 2014 | 7:10 am
    On Sunday, the ECB and EBA published the results of their comprehensive assessment of banks balance sheets, and Italian banks where the worst performers. The stress tests singled out 25 banks that would be falling short of the 5.5% minimum CET1 threshold, based on data as of end 2013. But once the measures already enacted in 2014 are taken into consideration, the number of banks failing the test is reduced to 13. Of these, 4 are Italian. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Banca Carige, Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Banca Popolare di Milano will need to raise respectively 2.1bn, 0.81bn, 0.22bn…
  • Are the Eurozone’s fiscal rules dying?

    28 Oct 2014 | 12:43 am
    The European Commission and European Council have blinked.1 Reprimanding France and Italy for their transgressions of the fiscal rules was too risky. With face-saving measures, France and Italy will now break the eurozone’s prized fiscal rules.2 While unseemly in the eurozone context, this is a good economic outcome. Forcing deeper austerity upon fragile economies is destructive. Yes, sure, the French and the Italians could have better managed the balance between taxes and spending. But fine-tuning those through a collective process is absurd. Despite the small victory for economic…
 
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    TaxVox

  • What Will Next Week’s State Ballot Measures Tell Us About Taxes?

    Kim Rueben
    31 Oct 2014 | 7:03 am
    While most national attention is focused on which party will control the Senate and who will win the 36 gubernatorial races, many states also have fiscal initiatives on their ballots. And a few may provide some clues to how the public feels about the trade-off between taxes and government services. Many of the 16 tax-related initiatives seem designed more to generate voter turnout (on both on the left and the right) than to influence tax policy. But some could have real impact on future state budgets. Here are some key states to watch: Massachusetts: Bay State voters will say whether or not…
  • Is There Any Chance Congress Will Pass Business Tax Reform Next Year?

    Howard Gleckman
    28 Oct 2014 | 10:14 am
    In the run-up to next week’s congressional elections, Republicans are saying that if they win control of the Senate, they will try to pass business tax reform as part of an ambitious “we can get things done” agenda. Is there any possibility that a GOP-controlled Congress could rewrite the business provisions of the tax code? The chances are not zero. But the odds are very long. In effect, Republicans have a choice: They can go to war with President Obama over federal spending and the Affordable Care Act or they can try to build bipartisan consensus around an issue such as business…
  • Reporting, Responding, and Partnerships

    Renu Zaretsky
    27 Oct 2014 | 5:00 am
    Congress is in recess through the mid-term elections. The Daily Deduction will post each Monday until then.  Stranger than fiction: The IRS, “structuring,” and asset seizures. A business’ cash deposits, if under $10,000, do not trigger a government reporting requirement. But that could look like “structuring” to the IRS: Keeping cash deposits low specifically to avoid reporting, a tactic used by drug traffickers or terrorists. If it looks like structuring, the IRS can seize the money, and keep it until its owner proves he or she was not trying to avoid reporting it. This includes…
  • Why Tax Lawyers and Tax Economists Can’t Communicate

    Howard Gleckman
    23 Oct 2014 | 10:33 am
    Any close observer of the making of tax policy can see it: Lawyers and economists looking at the same issue through entirely different prisms. I’ve been fascinated by how their respective brains work, and why they have so much trouble communicating with one another. It turns out I am not alone. In a newly published paper in the William & Mary Policy Review, University of Oregon professor Roberta Mann explores why tax lawyers and economists often talk past one another, how their misunderstandings can profoundly affect policymaking, and what they can do to improve matters. Her title says…
  • Bertha and the French Professor: Lessons for Public Private Partnerships

    Tracy Gordon
    21 Oct 2014 | 9:34 am
    Jean Tirole is an influential, respected, and by all accounts gracious man who won this year’s Nobel Prize in economics. Bertha is a 7,000-ton tunnel boring machine that’s been stuck under Seattle for nine months—but is still tweeting—as state officials and a private contractor battle over who should pay to get her out. What do Prof. Tirole and Bertha have in common? They show the strengths and weaknesses of public private partnerships. P3s refer to all kinds of contractual arrangements, but the key feature is a transfer of risk from the public to the private sector. The idea is that…
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    Off the Charts Blog | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

  • In Case You Missed It…

    CBPP
    31 Oct 2014 | 12:55 pm
    This week on Off the Charts, we focused on state budgets and taxes, health care, the federal budget and taxes, and the safety net. On state budgets and taxes, Michael Leachman excerpted his recent debate with the Heritage Foundation’s Stephen Moore on Kansas’ radical tax cuts. Michael Mitchell explained why states should spend less on maintaining extremely high prison populations and more on schools.  He also analyzed the causes and costs of high incarceration rates and listed four ways that states can reduce incarceration rates. On health care, Jesse Cross-Call showed that states that…
  • State Welfare Benefits Continue Shrinking

    Ife Floyd
    31 Oct 2014 | 11:00 am
    Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) cash benefits for the nation’s poorest families with children fell again in purchasing power in 2014 and are now at least 20 percent below their inflation-adjusted 1996 levels in 38 states, our new report explains.  As the country moves past the economic downturn and state revenues recover, states should halt the erosion of TANF benefits and begin restoring the purchasing power lost since TANF’s creation in 1996. While eight states raised benefits between July 2013 (the start of fiscal year 2014 in most states) and July 2014, the remaining…
  • 4 Ways States Can Reduce Incarceration Rates

    Michael Mitchell
    31 Oct 2014 | 8:51 am
    I outlined recently the causes and costs of states’ high incarceration rates. While most states, under both Republican and Democratic control, have enacted criminal justice reforms in recent years to reduce prison populations without harming public safety, most states’ reforms to date haven’t been extensive enough to have a big impact on prison populations. State policymakers need to enact reforms that target the main drivers of high incarceration rates: the number of people admitted (or re-admitted) into correctional facilities and the length of their prison stays. States should…
  • Social Security’s Backlog Rooted in Underfunding, Not Incompetence

    David Reich
    30 Oct 2014 | 11:26 am
    House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy suggests the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) large backlog of uncompleted continuing disability reviews reflects government incompetence.  Actually, the backlog in these reviews, which determine whether recipients of disability benefits through Social Security or Supplemental Security Income (SSI) remain eligible, is really about underfunding. In fact, it’s the House’s refusal in recent years to fully fund this type of program integrity work under the 2011 Budget Control Act (BCA) — part of an unfortunate pattern of congressional…
  • Debating Kansas’ Tax Cuts

    Michael Leachman
    30 Oct 2014 | 10:10 am
    With Kansas’ radical tax cuts drawing national attention this election season, I recently debated the Heritage Foundation’s Stephen Moore, who advised Governor Sam Brownback on the tax cuts, on their impact.  The full debate, published by State Tax Notes and moderated by its commentary editor Doug Sheppard, is here.  Below is a brief excerpt: Leachman:  In 2012 you and Arthur Laffer wrote, ‘‘The quality of schools also matters as does the state’s highway system, but it takes years for those policies to pay dividends, while cutting taxes can have a near immediate and permanent…
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    Eschaton

  • Spy stuff

    31 Oct 2014 | 11:37 pm
    Marcy Wheeler talked with Patrick Eddington, a former CIA officer, and former intelligence staffer to Rush Holt, about the nature of "intelligence" and the loss of Congressional oversight, on Virtually Speaking.
  • Later Night

    31 Oct 2014 | 6:12 pm
    Rock harder.
  • Friday Night

    31 Oct 2014 | 4:00 pm
    Rock on
  • Games People Play

    31 Oct 2014 | 1:48 pm
    I admit I get a bit confused about all of the election prediction action that happens a few days before an election. I mean, it can be a fun game I guess, but it's just a game. A month or two out an educated guess (yes, polls are most of the information you need but you can add a bit more information to the polls) can be useful for allocating resources, changing campaign strategies, etc..., but I'm really not gonna care on Wednesday morning which political prognosticator guessed correctly.
  • Oh Wow

    31 Oct 2014 | 12:31 pm
    Crunchy Dreher usually isn't my beat, but wow...
 
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Boo! Who’s afraid of availability bias?

    Andrew
    31 Oct 2014 | 6:36 am
    Just in time for Halloween: I came across this 2-minute video by Brian Zikmund-Fisher, a professor of Health Behavior and Health Education at the University of Michigan, and I took a look because I was curious what he had to say. The video is called “Why aren’t we more scared of measles?” and has the following description: Measles is one of the leading causes of death amongst children worldwide. In 2012, an estimated 122,000 people died of the disease according to the World Health Organization – equivalent to 14 deaths every hour. Yet talk to parents about this highly…
  • Was it really necessary to do a voting experiment on 300,000 people? Maybe 299,999 would’ve been enough? Or 299,998? Or maybe 2000?

    Andrew
    30 Oct 2014 | 6:18 am
    There’s been some discussion recently about an experiment done in Montana, New Hampshire, and California, conducted by three young political science professors, in which letters were sent to 300,000 people, in order to (possibly) affect their voting behavior. It appears that the plan was to follow up after the elections and track voter turnout. (Some details are in this news report from Dylan Scott.) The Montana experiment was particularly controversial, with disputes about the legality and ethicality of sending people an official-looking document with the Montana state seal, the…
  • Statistical distribution of incomes in different countries, and a great plot

    Phil
    29 Oct 2014 | 5:21 pm
    This post is by Phil Price. This article in the New York Times is pretty good, and the graphics are excellent…especially the interactive graphic halfway down, entitled “American Incomes Are Losing Their Edge, Except at the Top” (try mousing over the gray lines and see what happens). The plot attempts to display the statistical distribution of incomes in about 10 different countries. That alone is not so easy; one natural idea is to display a bunch of histograms in a small multiples plot. But the plot also tries to show how each of the distributions has changed since 1980. I…
  • I love it when I can respond to a question with a single link

    Andrew
    29 Oct 2014 | 6:46 am
    Shira writes: This came up from trying to help a colleague of mine at Human Rights Watch. He has several completely observed variables X, and a variable with 29% missing, Y. He wants a histogram (and other descriptive statistics) of a “filled in” Y. He can regress Y on X, and impute missing Y’s from their fully observed X values (from the posterior predictive distribution). If he wants a histogram of the “filled in” Y, what would you recommend to him? Is there a good way to display this, taking the uncertainty in the imputed Y’s into account? My reply:…
  • Body-slam on the sister blog

    Andrew
    28 Oct 2014 | 7:57 pm
    John Ahlquist and Scott Gehlbach nail it. The post Body-slam on the sister blog appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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    macroblog

  • What's behind Declining Labor Force Participation? Test Your Hypothesis with Our New Data Tool

    macroblog
    15 Oct 2014 | 9:03 am
    The share of people (age 16 and over) participating in the labor market—that is, either working or looking for work—declined significantly during the recession. As many researchers have noted (see our list of supplemental reading under "More Information"), there is clearly a cyclical component to the decline. When labor market opportunities dry up, it influences decisions to pursue activities other than work, such as schooling, taking care of family, or retiring. However, much of the decrease in the overall labor force participation rate (LFPR) could be the result of the…
  • On Bogs and Dots

    macroblog
    29 Sep 2014 | 12:25 pm
    Consider this scenario. You travel out of town to meet up with an old friend. Your hotel is walking distance to the appointed meeting place, across a large grassy field with which you are unfamiliar. With good conditions, the walk is about 30 minutes but, to you, the quality of the terrain is not so certain. Though nobody seems to be able to tell you for sure, you believe that there is a 50-50 chance that the field is a bog, intermittently dotted with somewhat treacherous swampy traps. Though you believe you can reach your destination in about 30 minutes, the better part of wisdom is to go it…
  • The Changing State of States' Economies

    macroblog
    15 Sep 2014 | 2:05 pm
    Timely data on the economic health of individual states recently came from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The new quarterly state-level gross domestic product (GDP) series begins in 2005 and runs through the fourth quarter of 2013. The map below offers a look at how states have fared since 2005 relative to the economic performance of the nation as a whole. Learn About Tableau It’s interesting to see the map depict an uneven expansion between the second quarter of 2005 and the peak of the cycle in the fourth quarter of 2007. By the fourth quarter of 2008, most parts of the…
  • What Kind of Job for Part-Time Pat?

    macroblog
    25 Aug 2014 | 12:35 pm
    As anyone who follows macroblog knows, we have been devoting a lot of attention recently to the issue of people working part-time for economic reasons (PTER), which means people who want full-time work but have not yet been able to find it. As of July 2014, the number of people working PTER stood at around 7.5 million. This level is down from a peak of almost 9 million in 2011 but is still more than 3 million higher than before the Great Recession. That doesn’t mean they won’t ever find full-time work in the future, but their chances are a lot lower than in the past. Consider Pat,…
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    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • Against evidence-based policy

    chris dillow
    31 Oct 2014 | 6:19 am
    What is the case against evidence-based policy? This is one question prompted by David Cameron's refusal to legalize drugs in the face of evidence that criminalization of them doesn't reduce their use. The question, of course, generalizes. Many of us would argue that fiscal policy and immigration policy are also less than perfectly based in the evidence - and no doubt you can think of other examples. There must, therefore, be something to be said against evidence-based policy. But what? One answer lies in something we know from financial decision-making - that greater knowledge…
  • "A culture of mistakes"

    chris dillow
    29 Oct 2014 | 6:27 am
    The Sunderland Echo has a useful phrase - a "culture of mistakes". In fact, such a culture extends far beyond the Mackems. In a world of complexity, bounded rationality and limited knowledge, mistakes are inevitable and ubiquitous. The question, therefore, is not merely how to avoid them but rather: which ones should we make? This question arises in countless contexts. Football teams must choose between playing from the back and so risking the mistake of giving the ball away in a dangerous area against playing it long and so making the more common but less costly mistake of…
  • On false consensus

    chris dillow
    28 Oct 2014 | 7:11 am
    Last night, we saw a great example of how cognitive biases can have catastrophic effects when Corrie's Rob confessed to the World's Most Perfect Woman that he had killed Tina. I suspect he did so because of the false consensus effect - our tendency to over-estimate the extent to which other people are like us. Because he knew that he'd killed Tina, he mistook the WMPW's suspicions for hard knowledge and so broke down in the false belief that he couldn't sustain his denial: the fact that he wanted the WMPW to keep quiet about the murder suggests this, rather than a…
  • Our distorted priorities

    chris dillow
    27 Oct 2014 | 7:17 am
    There's something I find depressing about the response to my post on Russell Brand - that it has received far more attention than almost all my other posts even though many of those are on what I'd regard as more important matters. Now I know that writing about your blog traffic is, to paraphrase Lyndon Johnson, like pissing down your leg: it seems hot to you, but it never does to anyone else. But bear with me, because I fear that this pattern illustrates (at least) three depressing facets of our political life. (I might be committing the journalist's fallacy of drawing general…
  • Russell Brand & our political culture

    chris dillow
    26 Oct 2014 | 6:05 am
    Everyone has been having a pop at Russell Brand. Focusing upon his foibles, however, serves to distract us from some fundamental defects of our political culture. Take these quotes from him: The economy is just a metaphorical device, it’s not real, that’s why it’s got the word con in it. I’m not supposed to get my head around economics, none of us are, it’s designed to be obtuse. Look at those f***ing NASDAQ, FTSE, Dow Jones things... I ain’t got time for a bloody graph… This is the kind of stuff that people like you use to confuse people like us.   These show that Sunny is…
 
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    Moneybox

  • Are Starbucks Customers Over the Pumpkin Spice Latte?

    Alison Griswold
    31 Oct 2014 | 2:08 pm
    After an autumn in which companies seemed to inject pumpkin spice flavoring into just about every conceivable baked good and beverage on the market, there are creeping signs that America has finally had enough. The evidence? Starbucks' recent earnings report. Starbucks and @TheRealPSL Twitter account set many a pumpkin spice lover heart aflutter in late August when they hinted that Starbucks' signature pumpkin spice latte was rolling out a few weeks early for its 11th season. The unspoken subtext of this decision was that not only would an early release of the pumpkin spice latte please…
  • How to Get Your $3 Burrito From Chipotle on Halloween

    Alison Griswold
    31 Oct 2014 | 9:34 am
    Happy Halloween! Here at Slate's Moneybox, we are always in favor of getting into the holiday spirit with a Halloween costume. But if you aren't much for festivities, here's another reason to dress up: It's your ticket to a $3 burrito at Chipotle. Once again, Chipotle is bringing back its "boorito" event to celebrate Halloween. The rules are simple. Show up to any Chipotle in a costume from 5 p.m. on and you can purchase a burrito, burrito bowl, salad, or order of tacos for only $3. Chipotle will donate up to $1 million in proceeds from the day to benefit the Chipotle Cultivate…
  • How to Scale Your Artisanal Business in Four Easy Steps

    John Peabody
    30 Oct 2014 | 12:49 pm
    This article originally appeared in Inc. It's hard to shake a handcrafted, locally sourced stick these days without hitting a new artisanal business. Demand for makers' goods is booming; just look at online crafts marketplace Etsy, which helped artisans sell more than $1.4 billion worth of goods last year. That's more than triple its 2010 sales. The maker movement has been fueled by a new crop of entrepreneurs set on building their own futures, one carefully crafted product at a time. But expanding these detail-oriented businesses can be particularly tricky, whether you're selling…
  • Chevy Executive Blows His World Series Presentation. Chevy Social Media Turns It Into a Hashtag.

    Jordan Weissmann
    30 Oct 2014 | 8:03 am
    Poor Rikk Wilde. The Chevrolet regional zone manager was tasked with presenting World Series MVP Madison Bumgarner with a brand new Chevy truck, and came off as a nervous wreck, stopping to catch his breath and stumbling over his lines (he kept glancing down at a notecard). Then, to plug the truck's virtues, he uttered the instantly immortal words: "It combines class-winning and -leading, um, you know, technology and stuff." Because it is the social media team's job to make lemonade whenever life hands a giant corporation lemons, it later attempted to turn Wilde's big whiff into a…
  • What Happens During the First Years of Your Startup

    Todd Vernon
    30 Oct 2014 | 7:08 am
    This article originally appeared in Inc. When I start a new company and successfully get it funded, I sometimes get eye rolls from first-time entrepreneurs. What they are communicating is “of course you did—you have done it before.” While that’s true, I have done it before, and it is a little easier the second and third time, there are aspects that actually get harder every time. Following are things to expect and anticipate in the first few years as a CEO for a startup. Year 1—Work a Lot, but Worry Even More A good run with a startup can often take seven to 10 years. In the first…
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    Economic Development Blog » Economic Development Blog -

  • Vermont Economic Development Authority Celebrates 40 Years and $2B in Financing

    Economic Development HQ.com
    31 Oct 2014 | 7:50 am
    The Vermont Economic Development Authority is celebrating its 40th anniversary this year, having been created by the Vermont General Assembly in 1974. VEDA 40th anniversary (photo – veda.org) The Authority’s contributions to Vermont’s economy will be highlighted at VEDA’s 40th annual meeting that is being held at the DoubleTree Hotel in Burlington today. Governor Peter Shumlin will be speaking at the event, as will senior investment strategist for UBS Investment Bank Brian Rose. In the last 40 years, VEDA has approved 7,395 separate economic development financing proposals that…
  • New York Awards $5M to World’s Largest Business Idea Competition Winners

    Economic Development HQ.com
    30 Oct 2014 | 10:25 pm
    Tonawanda, NY-based ASi, LLC has been named as the winner of 43North – the world’s largest business idea competition, initiated earlier this year by New York State as part of an effort to promote Buffalo economic development. 43North (photo – 43north.org) ASi is getting a $1 million grand prize, and the remaining 10 finalists will receive either $500,000 or $250,000, to be used for growing and developing their business in Buffalo. The inaugural 43North competition, a part of Gov. Cuomo’s Buffalo Billion initiative, called for innovative business plans and ideas to be…
  • Virginia Keeps Boehringer Ingelheim Plant Operational by Recruiting Chinese Manufacturer

    Economic Development HQ.com
    30 Oct 2014 | 9:08 pm
    UniTao Pharmaceuticals LLC, a subsidiary of Shanghai-based Tenry Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., has purchased the Boehringer Ingelheim plant in Petersburg, VA and plans to manufacture active ingredients for the pharmaceutical sector. Petersburg, VA (photo -petersburgva.gov) This will be Tenry’s first U.S. manufacturing facility. UniTao will invest $22.5 million to establish operations in the facility, and expects to create 376 new jobs. Boehringer Ingelheim had announced last year in August that it was shutting down the Petersburg plant, and has been proceeding with the shut down in a phased…
  • California Economic Development Website Highlights Breaking Barriers to Doing Business Program

    Economic Development HQ.com
    30 Oct 2014 | 8:05 am
    The California Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development (GO-Biz) has launched a new web page on its website that highlights the best practices of local and state permitting agencies and business groups that are making their programs more business-friendly. CA GO-Biz B³ Program (photo – business.ca.gov) The program is called Breaking Barriers to Doing Business, and those highlighted under it are recognized as B³ Champions. More than a dozen cities, counties and state agencies have been recognized so far for their innovative efforts to help businesses start up, grow and…
  • Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems to Add 100 Jobs at New North American HQ in Lake Mary, Florida

    Economic Development HQ.com
    29 Oct 2014 | 10:24 pm
    Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems Americas, Inc. is establishing its new North American headquarters in Lake Mary, FL and plans to create 100 new jobs over the next five years. Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems (photo – orlandoedc.com) MHPSA is a new entity created by the merger of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. and Hitachi, Ltd. in February. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries was already located in the Orlando area, but Hitachi’s headquarters was in New Jersey. After some debate about where the new headquarters of the merged company should be located, Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems ended…
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    Washington Center for Equitable Growth

  • A Dialogue on Secular Stagnation: The Honest Broker for the Week of October 24, 2014

    Brad DeLong
    31 Oct 2014 | 12:54 pm
    Secular Stagnation Princeps Cogitationis: If I am going to hold down my consulting and speech-making jobs, I need to understand what Larry Summers is talking about here: Larry Summers: What to do about secular stagnation? But it is too long! 3000 words! Help! What can I do? Oeconomicarus: But I thought you read 300 books a year? Princeps Cogitationis: I read the last chapter of 300 books a year. Then I read three short reviews of each. And then I opine fearlessly. Working through a difficult 3000-word argument and assessing it is not a good use of my time. Oeconomicarus: So you want me to use…
  • Weekend reading

    Nick Bunker
    31 Oct 2014 | 11:55 am
    This is a weekly post we publish every Friday with links to articles we think anyone interested in equitable growth should read. We won’t be the first to share these articles, but we hope by taking a look back at the whole week we can put them in context. The high cost of housing Cardiff Garcia airs his grievances about the high cost of housing in cities. But he’s got a good economic case for his complaints. [ft alphaville] Eduardo Porter makes the case that homeownership, and mortgages in particular, are bad for financial stability. [ny times] The theory and reality of economic growth…
  • Slicing and dicing the U.S. savings rate

    Nick Bunker
    31 Oct 2014 | 10:22 am
    The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis today released new data on personal income and consumption, including the personal savings rate. The report showed a 0.2 percentage point increase in the personal savings rate to 5.6 percent. The savings rate has been on the increase over the past several years, rising from a rate of about 2.5 percent before the Great Recession. But this increase comes after a decades-long downward trend in the personal savings rate. The rate in 2007 was about 2.5 percent, compared to 10 percent back in 1979.  The average savings rate fell quite a bit over the past…
  • Lunchtime Must-Read: Matt O’Brien: This Is Why the Economy Has Fallen and It Can’t Get Up

    Brad DeLong
    31 Oct 2014 | 9:02 am
    Matt O’Brien: This is why the economy has fallen and it can’t get up: “The chart… shows how much more pessimistic the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has become about the economy, revising its estimate of potential economic down in each of the last seven years…. This is scary stuff…. If it’s right, it means that the Great Recession has made us permanently poorer…. But why hasn’t this big crash been followed by a big comeback? Well, like everything else in economics, it comes down to two things: supply and demand. Larry Summers, who put…
  • Lunchtime Must-Read: Linda Greenhouse: The Roberts Court’s “Greatest Threat to Public Confidence”

    Brad DeLong
    31 Oct 2014 | 8:57 am
    Linda Greenhouse: The Roberts Court’s “Greatest Threat to Public Confidence”: “Late on a Friday night earlier this month… …the Supreme Court voted in another case from Texas to permit the state’s voter ID law, the strictest in the country, to take effect… prevent as many as 600,000 Texans, 4.5 percent of all those registered, from voting next month. The impact, Judge Nelva Gonzales Ramos found, would fall disproportionately on black and Latino Texans. She ruled that the law violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965…. The six justices who let the…
 
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    Bankrate.com » Economics

  • Podcast: What’s with fuel prices?

    Doug Whiteman
    27 Oct 2014 | 3:05 am
    In this Bankrate podcast, a look at falling oil and gas costs. How low will they go?
  • The Fed’s QE3 completes its cruise

    Mark Hamrick
    27 Oct 2014 | 3:05 am
    The Fed's "QE3" bond-buying program is expected to come into dock this week.
  • Podcast: Keep calm and invest on

    Doug Whiteman
    20 Oct 2014 | 3:05 am
    The recent ups and downs -- mostly downs -- on Wall Street have not been for the faint of heart. Anxiety levels have been raised even further by some behind-the-scenes turbulence. It can be tough enough for an investor to white-knuckle it and hold on tight while markets are behaving like a bucking bronco, but
  • Financial scourges: The E-words

    Mark Hamrick
    20 Oct 2014 | 3:05 am
    Ebola and Europe have been rocking U.S. markets. What's expected for this week?
  • Podcast: Must-dos for job seekers

    Doug Whiteman
    13 Oct 2014 | 3:05 am
    In this week's Bankrate podcast: How to get the most from job fairs and LinkedIn.
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    FiveThirtyEight » Economics | FiveThirtyEight

  • Election Day Could Bring Raises To 680,000 Low-Wage Workers

    Ben Casselman
    30 Oct 2014 | 8:38 am
    Voters in five states — Alaska, Arkansas, Illinois, Nebraska and South Dakota — will decide on ballot initiatives proposing an increase in the states’ minimum wages. Four of the initiatives would be binding; in Illinois, the ballot measure is only advisory.The votes come at a time when the minimum wage has emerged as a national issue. President Obama has proposed raising the federal minimum wage to $10.10 an hour from its current level of $7.25. Labor activists have gone further, pushing for a $15 “living wage.”1Efforts to raise the federal minimum wage have foundered, but…
  • U.S. High School Dropout Rates Fall, Especially Among Latinos

    Ben Casselman
    20 Oct 2014 | 3:36 am
    Five years ago, educators at Elkhart Community Schools realized they had a problem. Their dropout rate was too high. More than one third of the northern Indiana school district’s students weren’t graduating from high school on schedule. Among Hispanics, who make up about a third of the student body, the figures were even worse.“It was a significant moment where we said we have to change the culture,” said Gail Draper, who heads the guidance department at Elkhart Central High School. “We had to do something to turn the tide.”It seems to be working. In 2013, 85 percent of…
  • You See Sneakers, These Guys See Hundreds Of Millions In Resale Profit

    Lisa Chow
    17 Oct 2014 | 3:06 am
    Shirod Ince sat at the front of a line of more than 100 people, mostly guys in their early 20s, on a Friday evening last month. For two days, he and his friends had been taking turns waiting outside a Foot Locker in Harlem to buy the new LeBron sneaker. Through the long, restless hours, they had sustained themselves on Popeye’s, McDonald’s and a belief that it would all pay off in the end.Ince had no plans to wear the new Nikes. No, for the past two years, the 22-year-old basketball coach has been reselling the sneakers he waits for. And he thought he could double, triple, possibly even…
  • Senate Control Could Come Down To Whole Foods vs. Cracker Barrel

    David Wasserman
    8 Oct 2014 | 6:58 am
    A few weeks ago, the new moderator of “Meet the Press,” Chuck Todd, took to his “Nerd Screen” to outline an unconventional way to think about the midterm political landscape. His theory: 2014’s hottest races are boiling down to big Democratic urban areas and inner suburbs with lots of Starbucks coffee shops versus heavily Republican exurban hinterlands and rural areas with lots of Chick-fil-A restaurants.15But after immersing myself in numbers, maps and, admittedly, a spicy chicken sandwich, I discovered a slight problem: Neither chain’s political geography fits…
  • Marriage Isn’t Dead — Yet

    Ben Casselman
    29 Sep 2014 | 10:09 am
    Fewer Americans of all stripes are getting married. But beneath that overarching trend lies an important distinction: Some groups are merely delaying marriage, while others are skipping it entirely.The Pew Research Center last week released a big report on the decline in marriage in the United States. In 1960, nearly 90 percent of 25- to 34-year olds had been married; today, that figure is barely 50 percent.16 The trend is remarkably broad, cutting across race, education, income and other characteristics.17But dig deeper into the numbers and they reveal a hidden divide: Affluent,…
 
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    Vox - All

  • Vox Sentences: Virgin Galactic's deadly test flight

    Dylan Matthews
    31 Oct 2014 | 3:30 pm
    1. The Virgin Galactic crash California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (L) and Sir Richard Branson stand next to a model as Virgin Galactic unveils its new SpaceShipTwo spacecraft at the Mojave Spaceport on December 7, 2009 near Mojave, California. (David McNew/Getty Images) A SpaceShipTwo spacecraft owned by Virgin Galactic crashed during a test flight in the Mojave Desert today, killing one pilot and injuring the other. [NYT / Kenneth Chang] Here's what we know and don't know about the situation at the moment. [Vox / Joey Stromberg] SpaceShipTwo has been in development for nearly a decade; its…
  • LeBron James caused the Cavaliers' merchandise sales to grow 700%

    Anand Katakam
    31 Oct 2014 | 3:15 pm
    LeBron James' return to the Cleveland Cavaliers started on a sour note as they lost their season opener on Thursday. But Cleveland residents can't be too mad. James's decision to leave the Miami Heat is projected to add $50 million a year to the city's economy. The Cleveland Cavaliers have struggled mightily since James left four years ago, racking up one of the worst records in the league. Those losses meant lower TV ratings and fewer ticket sales. Although the Cavaliers have done reasonably well financially, generating about $145 million a year, they did better with James, generating about…
  • The video of Sharyl Attkisson getting "hacked" actually just shows a stuck delete key

    Max Fisher
    31 Oct 2014 | 3:14 pm
    Former CBS News reporter Sharyl Attkisson has become something of a hero among segments of the right ever since she was pushed out from the network this spring over concerns that her reporting had taken an anti-Obama bias. In the view of Attkisson and her supporters, CBS had silenced her for telling the truth on Benghazi and other scandals. (She also drew heat for reporting a link between vaccines and autism, an idea that has been widely debunked.) "The way to do it wouldn't be to hold down the delete key" On Tuesday, Attkisson will publish her book, Stonewalled: My Fight for Truth Against…
  • A child became a US citizen today while wearing a Captain America costume

    Dara Lind
    31 Oct 2014 | 1:50 pm
    Hundreds of thousands of people become US citizens every year. But only a few of them get naturalized on October 31st...and get to take the oath of citizenship in their Halloween costumes. Dressed in Halloween costumes, 39 children welcomed as US citizens in special @USCIS ceremony outside Baltimore. pic.twitter.com/Ov0MFka7pM — M. Scott Mahaskey (@smahaskey) October 31, 2014 Even Captain America, like any other would-be citizen, had to pass the citizenship test. Presumably, he passed with flying colors — which is more than most native-born Americans can say.
  • Maine judge sides with science, lets nurse Kaci Hickox leave her house

    German Lopez
    31 Oct 2014 | 12:40 pm
    Doctors Without Borders nurse Kaci Hickox, who returned one week ago from treating patients in West Africa for Ebola, may roam free again. A Maine judge on Friday said state officials will need to prove the need for a mandatory quarantine if they want to enforce one for health-care workers returning from West Africa, CNN and the Associated Press reported. State officials were trying to constrain Hickox to her home and away from the public for 21 days, Ebola's incubation period. At one point, they even prevented a pizza delivery for about 20 hours. Ebola is only contagious while a patient…
 
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    Commentary - Money, Banking and Financial Markets

  • The Importance of Being Europe

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    27 Oct 2014 | 5:28 am
    “The truth is rarely pure and never simple.”Oscar Wilde, The Importance of Being EarnestIf Oscar Wilde were still around, he could write a wonderful comedy about European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Like the life of his protagonist, Ernest John, the evolution of EMU is rarely pure and never simple. But it would take a Wilde imagination to see exactly how EMU gets to a happy ending.Despite its name, EMU was not and is not primarily an economic endeavor. Introducing the euro lowered transactions costs and facilitated the flow of trade and finance within the euro area. It also reduced…
  • Rolling the dice, again

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    21 Oct 2014 | 5:57 am
    The headline on Reuters at Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:05pm EDT read “U.S. regulator targeting lower down payments on mortgages.” At first, we thought perhaps the headline was from 2004, not 2014. After the financial crisis of 2007-2009, it seemed inconceivable that U.S. authorities would again put some of the largest U.S. intermediaries – or the taxpayers who provide for them – at risk of failure. Sadly, we were wrong.In a speech to the Mortgage Bankers Association, Melvin L. Watt, the Director of the agency that regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, made the following statement:“To…
  • How big should central bank balance sheets be?

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    20 Oct 2014 | 5:41 am
    In 2007, the Fed’s balance sheet was less than $1 trillion. Today, it is nearly $4.5 trillion. The U.S. experience is far from unique. Since 2007, global central bank balance sheets have nearly tripled to more than $22 trillion as of mid-2014. And, the increase is split evenly between advanced and emerging market economies (EMEs) (see chart).Central Bank Assets (Trillions of U.S. Dollars) Source: National central banks. So what’s the right size? The answer depends on the policy goals and the nature of the financial system. In the case of the Fed, we expect that it will be able to achieve…
  • Living Wills or Phoenix Plans: Making sure banks can rise from their ashes

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    13 Oct 2014 | 5:28 am
    Wills are for when you die. Living wills guide your affairs when you lose the capacity to act.We’re all mortal and fragile – not just people, but firms and banks, too. The Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 requires systemic intermediaries (and many others) to create “living wills” to guide their orderly resolution in bad times.In August, these Dodd-Frank living wills made front-page business news when the FDIC and the Fed rejected those submitted by the biggest banks as inadequate. That should come as no surprise. In their current form, we doubt that living wills would do much to secure…
  • Making Finance Safe

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    6 Oct 2014 | 5:30 am
    Walter Wriston, Citicorp’s chief for nearly two decades until 1984, used to argue that banks’ didn’t need much, if any, capital. The global financial crisis put that view to rest. Today, we know that if banks are going to be able to absorb large unforeseen losses that would otherwise threaten financial stability, they need to finance themselves with equity, not just debt.But how much capital do banks need to have to ensure the financial system is safe? Even after the financial crisis, answers to this question range widely, making it the single most contentious source of debate among…
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    Credence Independent Advisors

  • US Federal Reserve to end quantitative easing programme

    Glenn Scott-Ellis
    29 Oct 2014 | 11:33 pm
    Central bank’s head, Janet Yellen, confirms cessation of buying bonds in October after injection of £4.5 trillion over five years. The US Federal Reserve has called time on its $4.5 trillion (£2.8tn) quantitative easing programme, introduced more than five years ago to steer the world’s largest economy through the financial crisis. The central bank, led by Janet Yellen, said it would cease buying bonds this month. Announcing the decision made at its October policy meeting, the Fed said: “The committee judges that there has been a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labour…
  • QE is coming to an end: here’s how it’s changed the world

    Dermot Crawford
    29 Oct 2014 | 4:04 am
    As the Federal Reserve prepares to wind down its money-printing, how has quantitative easing altered the global economy? The Federal Reserve is widely expected to end its asset purchasing programme today. If so, it will be a quiet end to one of the most radical monetary policy experiments in modern times. Since the financial crisis, the world’s biggest central bank has embarked on an unprecedented programme of asset purchases that has resulted in its balance sheet growing to more than $4.45 trillion. Under the most recent incarnation of monetary easing – dubbed “QE3″…
  • Global shares push higher, bonds steady ahead of Fed

    Jamil Al Maani
    28 Oct 2014 | 4:48 am
    (Reuters) – World stocks inched up and U.S. bond yields steadied after almost three weeks of gains on Tuesday with Federal Reserve policy setters expected to end six years of aggressive monetary stimulus. The Fed kicks off a two-day meeting later with markets betting on an announcement that it will stop its post-financial crisis high-intensity asset buying and reinforce that a softly-softly approach will be taken to raising rates. With the euro zone running into turbulence again and China’s giant economy also struggling for pace, the prospect of a world without U.S. stimulus has…
  • Osborne’s new pension plans: the options … and the tax implications

    Mark Boyes
    26 Oct 2014 | 11:38 pm
    Do you take a tax-free lump sum, buy that Lamborghini, or spend it all on your children right now? Today’s over-55s have a maze of possibilities for their pension pot The chancellor this week revealed new freedoms allowing savers to treat their pension pot as a bank account from April next year. But what does this mean? What can people do with their new freedoms? How do they find their way through the ever-expanding pensions maze? To help spell out the options, we’ll take the case of someone with £100,000 in their pension pot, aged 55-plus. Under the chancellor’s new rules this person…
  • UK on track to be fastest growing G7 economy despite slowdown

    Kareem Sattar
    25 Oct 2014 | 1:46 am
    Markets breathe sigh of relief as 0.7% GDP rise proves lower than previous quarter but still meets forecasts. The UK remains on track to be the fastest growing G7 economy this year despite new figures showing that GDP growth slowed in the third quarter. A rise of 0.7% – a slowdown from 0.9% in the second quarter – was in line with most forecasts. But after recent economic indicators showing a weaker housing market, and slower manufacturing and consumer spending, some had feared growth could be weaker. Relief in financial markets at the figures, which confirmed seven consecutive quarters…
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    iTestCash.com - News

  • $500,000 in Fake Merchandise Confiscated at East Indianapolis Store

    Alexander Reichmann
    13 Oct 2014 | 12:36 pm
    This past Sunday there was a big hit on a store in Indianapolis.  The store was selling hundreds of thousands dollars in fake merchandise posing as brands such as Nike, Gucci, Oakley, UGG, Polo, Otterbox, Coach, NBA, NFL, NHL, and MLB. The items confiscated included clothing such as shoes, hats and shirts, along with other items like cell phone cases and unlicensed copies of DVD movies. According to the reports, the Indiana Excise officers searched the store from about 11 a.m. until about 5:30 p.m. totaling more than 6 hours spent searching and retrieving items from the store. A trailer and…
  • $1000 Cheeseburger at Sonic: Why Businesses Need to Worry About Counterfeit Bills

    Alexander Reichmann
    16 Sep 2014 | 10:48 am
    Counterfeit money can turn up when you least expect it. This week, for example, a 22-year-old man named Christopher R. Cascio was arrested for attempting to pass off counterfeit money at Sonic, a popular fast-food restaurant chain. He was arraigned on Wednesday and is currently being held on $1,000 bail- a very expensive cheeseburger. That raises the question though, why do people do it? Passing off large bills for big ticket items might have some logic, but why bother to go through the trouble of obtaining counterfeit money only to exchange it for a $3 cheeseburger? Cascio isn’t alone. The…
  • 4 Reasons Why You Should Be Concerned About Counterfeit Currency

    Alexander Reichmann
    13 Aug 2014 | 1:29 pm
    With the modern explosion of technology and growth of electronic payments, most small businesses and individuals are no longer worried about counterfeit currency, as online and electronic fraud has become a bigger, scarier problem. Although it may seem like online fraud is more common and favored amongst fraudsters in 2014, small business owners mustn’t forget about the very real threat that is counterfeit currency. Even with all the clever, difficult-to-imitate features that the Federal Reserve has put on notes over the years, criminals still manage to counterfeit notes with the use of…
  • Counterfeit Money Being Passed at Garage Sales

    Alexander Reichmann
    3 Aug 2014 | 4:16 pm
    A news report from Kake gives notice that counterfeit money is said to be being used at garage sales in Wichita, Kansas. This likely isn't a surprise to people following news on the topic. We reported on our website a few years ago when a report came out that fake money was used at a lemonade stand which is similar to this story in how it could effect a small sale operation. This article from Kansas says that the Wichita police have seen several casess like this in the past few months of fake money being used at garage sales. They also mention that you can buy a special pen to detect if the…
  • Police Officer Arrested for Counterfeit Money and Speeding

    Alexander Reichmann
    24 Jul 2014 | 11:34 am
    By Alex Reichmann A Police Officer from North Charleston was arrested on 1am Wednesday morning after being pulled over for speeding over 100 mph and being found in possession of a counterfeit 100 dollar bill. A flask that smelled like alcohol was also found in the drivers seat of Officer Huggins car. According to the report he did not seem to drunk despite his speeding.   At the time of this report, the flask and fake bill are being held as evidence in this case. This is a twist on the usual counterfeit money story. Often it is people part of a gang using large amounts of fake money around…
 
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    Republic 3.0

  • Saving the mail: A Q&A with Sen. Tom Carper on his bipartisan plan for postal reform

    Anne Kim
    28 Oct 2014 | 6:38 am
    In an era of email, Instagram, Twitter and Facebook, the U.S. Postal service is struggling. We talk to Sen. Carper about his plan to modernize the mails and take the postal service back to profitability. The post Saving the mail: A Q&A with Sen. Tom Carper on his bipartisan plan for postal reform appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • Sharia mortgages and millennial homeowners

    Anne Kim
    27 Oct 2014 | 8:00 am
    Innovations from Islamic finance - such as "lease to own" and "co-ownership" - might be a promising way to overcome the cash and credit crunch faced by aspiring millennial homeowners. The post Sharia mortgages and millennial homeowners appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • Moderate Independents: The voters who matter most on Election Day might be the ones no one’s talking about

    Stefan Hankin
    27 Oct 2014 | 6:34 am
    Though they make up just 5 percent of the electorate, these highly-educated, white male voters - many of whom live in the South and Midwest - still have the power to swing elections. The post Moderate Independents: The voters who matter most on Election Day might be the ones no one’s talking about appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • Social science and bipartisan lunch dates

    Anne Kim
    23 Oct 2014 | 10:08 am
    Two senators propose bipartisan lunch dates as a way to break Congressional gridlock. Don't scoff - social science backs it up. The post Social science and bipartisan lunch dates appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • Not in school, not working – and not voting

    Anne Kim
    21 Oct 2014 | 11:55 am
    5.6 million young Americans are neither working nor in school. And only 1 in 4 young Americans plans to vote this fall. Shouldn't the alarm bells be ringing? The post Not in school, not working – and not voting appeared first on Republic 3.0.
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