Economics

  • Most Topular Stories

  • Passing Fair

    The Epicurean Dealmaker
    18 Jan 2015 | 1:13 pm
    What though the sea with waves continuall Doe eate the earth, it is no more at all ; Ne is the earth the lesse, or loseth ought : For whatsoever from one place doth fall Is with the tyde unto another brought : For there is nothing lost, that may be found if sought.― Edmund Spenser, The Faerie QueeneMunicipal bond market maven, government official, and longtime Twitter fixture Kristi Culpepper penned an interesting riposte yesterday to Leon Wieseltier’s recent jeremiad against the disruptive cultural effects of technology in The New York Times. Leon, you may recall, laid about rather…
  • “For better or for worse, academics are fascinated by academic rankings . . .”

    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
    Andrew
    14 Apr 2015 | 6:23 am
    I was asked to comment on a forthcoming article, “Statistical Modeling of Citation Exchange Among Statistics Journals,” by Christiano Varin, Manuela Cattelan and David Firth. Here’s what I wrote: For better or for worse, academics are fascinated by academic rankings, perhaps because most of us reached our present positions through a series of tournaments, starting with course grades and standardized tests and moving through struggles for the limited resource of publication space in top journals, peer-reviewed grant funding, and finally, the unpredictable process of citation…
  • Out of Service

    The Epicurean Dealmaker
    5 Apr 2015 | 6:14 am
    I met a traveller from an antique landWho said:—Two vast and trunkless legs of stoneStand in the desert. Near them on the sand,Half sunk, a shatter’d visage lies, whose frownAnd wrinkled lip and sneer of cold commandTell that its sculptor well those passions readWhich yet survive, stamp’d on these lifeless things,The hand that mock’d them and the heart that fed.And on the pedestal these words appear:“My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!”Nothing beside remains: round the decayOf that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,The lone and level…
  • Homebuilding Off to Slow Start in 2015; Starts Miss Expectations; Atlanta Fed GDP Forecast 0.1%

    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
    16 Apr 2015 | 12:11 pm
    Add home building to the list of disappointing economic reports.The Bloomberg Consensus for seasonally adjusted starts was for 1.04 million. Instead we saw .926 million. HighlightsHousing is still sluggish based on the latest starts data which disappointed. Starts in March slightly rebounded a monthly 2.0 percent after plunging a monthly 15.3 percent in February. Expectations were for a 1.040 million pace for February. The 0.926 million unit pace was down 2.5 percent on a year-ago basis.By region, starts gained 114.9 percent in the Northeast-almost certainly a weather related rebound but in a…
  • Goldman Sachs Doesn’t Care What You Think

    The Epicurean Dealmaker
    14 Feb 2015 | 9:20 am
    A cat may look at a king.— English proverbSo, in an apparent effort to raise its rank in the Most Recognized Polling Firm in America Sweepstakes, Harris Poll recently published a survey of 27,278 individuals across this fine land to determine America’s 100 most- and least-loved corporations. Bloomberg Business subsequently took time out of its busy day to gleefully report that Goldman Sachs, investment bank and über squid of the global financial markets, finished dead last:People hate Goldman Sachs more than oil spills and the Koch brothers.Well, far be it for me to rain on Bloomberg’s…
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    Real Time Economics

  • 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

    Kathleen Madigan
    17 Apr 2015 | 1:30 pm
    The economic data flow waxes and wanes. The week ahead is another waning period. Despite the sparse calendar, here are five items worth watching.
  • Fed Releases New Document Detailing Large Bank Supervision

    Ryan Tracy
    17 Apr 2015 | 1:21 pm
    Brendan McDermid/Reuters The Federal Reserve released new details about the committee at the center of its bank supervision policy, giving the public its first look at what has become known as the “Triangle Document.” The document outlines the structure of the Large Institution Supervision Coordinating Committee, which was formed in 2010 and is now at the heart of the Fed’s oversight of the largest U.S. financial firms. The Wall Street Journal reported on the document in March, describing how the new committee was emblematic of a power shift at the Fed: Major regulatory decisions are…
  • ECB’s Nowotny: ELA Can’t Be Long-Term Financing Substitute for Greek Banks

    Harriet Torry
    17 Apr 2015 | 12:10 pm
    WASHINGTON–European Central Bank governing council member Ewald Nowotny said Friday the central bank’s emergency-lending program can’t become a long-term financing mechanism for Greek banks. “Due to the legal structure, the ECB isn’t in the situation to substitute long-term financing, that’s a political decision,” Mr. Nowotny said at the International Monetary Fund’s Spring Meetings. “If a decision [on a program for Greece] doesn’t come about, the ECB can’t replace it, we’re not a replacement for a politically-decided program,” Mr. Nowotny said. The ECB can only…
  • The Economy Has Slowed Because the Fed Has Already Tightened

    Greg Ip
    17 Apr 2015 | 10:17 am
    The U.S. economy has downshifted rather abruptly in the last few months, prompting new discussion within the Federal Reserve about delaying its first interest-rate increase. Yet the growth deceleration should not come as a surprise, because the Fed has already tightened. True, the Fed’s interest-rate target remains close to zero. But the Fed tightens through its words, not just its actions, and the drumbeat of chatter from the Fed in the last year has made it clear that officials plan to start raising rates sometime this year. That chatter has made itself felt in stock, bond, and most…
  • Food Prices Fell in March, but the Grocery Relief Could be Short Lived

    Eric Morath
    17 Apr 2015 | 7:25 am
    Grocery prices, including tomatoes, are falling, the Labor Department said Friday. Paul J. Richards/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images Americans saw some price relief last month on their grocery bills, a development that helped hold inflation in check despite an uptick in gasoline prices. The cost of food at home, Labor Department speak for groceries, fell 0.5% last month. The decline, the largest in nearly six years, was driven by a 1.4% decrease in fruit and vegetable prices. Everything from apples to bananas to dried peas costs less last month, according to the Labor Department. But the…
 
 
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    Alpha.Sources

  • To Default or not to Default

    CV
    5 Apr 2015 | 6:02 am
    With apologies to Shakespeare.  {Dawn, Yannis Varoufakis is roaming the Akropolis}  To default or not to default, that is the question. Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer The slings and arrows of outrageous demands Or to take arms against a legion of creditors And, by opposing, end them? To stay, to oppose— No more—and by opposing to say we end The heartache and the thousand cuts That the euro and debt is heir to—’tis a consummation Devoutly to be wished! To stay, to oppose. To oppose, perchance to extend—ay, there’s the rub, For in…
  • QE and population ageing as macroeconomic externalities

    CV
    23 Mar 2015 | 12:30 am
    This discussion of market failures and externalities is mostly a microeconomic discussion. Students will tend to encounter it, in the context of the classic case of the polluting industrial company whose marginal private cost, or supply, curve is not the same as the marginal social cost curve. A firm which dumps toxic waste in a river does not bear the full cost of such actions; society also faces a costs even if this is not taken into account in the firm's profit maximization problem. The solution according to the welfare theorems is for the social planner, the government, to tax the company…
  • Regulative Mission Creep?

    CV
    8 Feb 2015 | 11:00 pm
    The financial sector has been regulated and fined into submission following the crisis, but the equity research team at Credit Suisse had a rebellious thought this weekend. In a piece extolling the virtues of dividend stocks, they postulate the following development: As bond yields fall to zero, duration matching for pension funds and insurance companies becomes nearly impossible and, consequently, we believe there will be significant pressure on regulators to allow higher equity weightings. On the global equity strategy team, we see a scenario where pension funds and insurance companies are…
  • Tightrope Walking

    CV
    1 Feb 2015 | 1:22 am
    Investors face some big questions at the moment, and depending on which answer you pick, your asset allocation will differ substantially.  The big macroeconomic question can be summed up in a discussion about inflation v deflation. The global economy are currently affected by three deflationary head winds . Firstly, the need to repair balance sheets following the crisis in 2008; secondly, the slowdown in China and unravelling of investment tied up in the commodities space; and thirdly, rapidly ageing populations in Europe and Japan. Faced with such tremendous forces, you would argue that…
  • Exclusive: Transcript from ECB canteen 14.00 CET 22/11/15

    CV
    22 Jan 2015 | 9:28 am
    With sincere apologies to Geri Halliwel   The Eurostoxx is rising Bears are getting low  According to our sources  The ECB’s the place to go    Cause' today for the first time  Just about half past two  For the first time in history It's gonna start raining euros    It's raining euros Hallejulah It's raining euros Amen   It's raining euros Hallejulah It's raining euros Amen   The periphery is rising  Weideman’s getting low  According to our sources  The ECB’s the place to go    Cause' today…
 
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    re: The Auditors

  • Speaking Engagements/Conferences

    Francine
    6 Apr 2015 | 5:40 am
    I’m on the road visiting universities, attending select conferences and forums and speaking to groups of all kinds. If you would like me to visit your university and your accounting/audit program, please write soon to lock in fall and winter dates. Contact me at fmckenna@mckennapartners.com to schedule a presentation at your university, conference, firm or for a private briefing. Coming Up: May 2, 2015, Guest lecturer. Baruch College/CUNY, Zicklin School of Business, New York, NY, for an advanced auditing class at the invitation of Professor Doug Carmichael. May 4, 2015, Guest lecturer.
  • Deloitte US First Female CEO; There’s More We Don’t Know

    Francine
    2 Mar 2015 | 4:29 pm
    Wouldn’t it be nice if investors and other interested parties could look up Cathy Engelbert in a public and easily accessible registry and find out about all the audit clients where she has been a lead partner or a Quality Control partner? Has she ever been named in a lawsuit or been sanctioned? Let’s hope not. Here’s what I think really matters about Engelbert’s appointment. From my piece at Medium.com. More important than being a woman is the fact that Engelbert is an audit leader rather than a consulting or tax leader. EY’s chose its new US CEO from its tax lobbying…
  • PwC Settles Campbell Overtime Case; Impact To Profession Is Happening Now

    Francine
    2 Mar 2015 | 4:22 pm
    PwC recently agreed to settle the Campbell v. PwC overtime class action lawsuit pending in California. Two former unlicensed PwC accounting associates, with the support of law firm Kershaw, Cutter & Ratinoff, filed a motion on October 24, 2007 that sought to certify a class of all associates and senior associates employed by PwC in California. I first wrote about the case on October 25, 2007. Here’s an excerpt from my wrap-up at Medium.com. The accounting profession wants to be elite, like law, even though the public accounting business model at the largest firms is built on the…
  • When Auditors Get Mixed Up In M&A, Smaller Clients Get Hurt

    Francine
    3 Feb 2015 | 9:21 am
    Over at Medium.com I’ve written about a new academic study, Shared Auditors in Mergers and Acquisitionsto be published soon in the Journal of Accounting and Economics that documents an interesting, rarely commented on auditor conflict of interest. The data suggests that when an acquiring company and its target share the same auditor, the audit firms favor acquirers at the expense of the smaller target audit clients. The researchers are also more bold than I have ever seen in an academic study in alleging that auditors prioritize their own self-interest and larger clients by using…
  • Journalists’ Obligations In The Shareholder Value Maximization Debate

    Francine
    14 Jan 2015 | 2:53 pm
    I wrote at Medium.com on January 6 about two journalists, both at the New York Times, who penned sympathetic stories about shareholders and other stakeholders that were paid short shrift when dominant shareholders or corporate insiders dominate the agenda. These journalists, in service to shorter and simpler narratives, shortcut coverage of the active and contentious debate about shareholder value maximization. Nelson Schwartz’s December 6 piece, “How Wall Street Bent Steel: Timken Bows to Activist Investors, and Splits in Two” describes the crying shame in Ohio of “activist…
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    The American Prospect

  • Faculty Join Fast Food in the Fight for $15

    Justin Miller
    16 Apr 2015 | 11:49 am
    Faculty Forward USC Adjunct faculty march for better pay and working conditions at the University of Southern California on April 15, 2015.  As yesterday’s Fight for $15 protests wound to a close across the country, it’s become clear that this movement is not a fleeting effort—it’s here to stay. The focal point has primarily been on the most visible low-wage workers: fast food and retail workers whose pay perpetually hovers around minimum wage. And their employers seem to be taking a small, yet encouraging, step in the right direction as both McDonald’s and Wal-Mart recently…
  • Calls From Home

    Elaine Teng
    16 Apr 2015 | 11:36 am
    (AP Photo/David Goldman) In this Oct. 17, 2014 photo, an unreclaimed strip mine just across the state line from Kentucky's Harlan County stands in Virginia as seen from the Kentucky side of Black Mountain in Lynch, Ky.  Amelia Kirby was driving in a particularly beautiful part of her home county in the late 1990s when she noticed the construction. She thought it was yet another strip mine, taking off the tops of mountains to extract the coal beneath. But instead, it was the beginnings of a prison. Amelia’s double-take was indicative of a general shift in central Appalachia, an area roughly…
  • The Fight for LGBT Equality is Not Over

    Peter Montgomery
    16 Apr 2015 | 10:51 am
    (AP Photo/Doug McSchooler) Opponents of Indiana Senate Bill 101, the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, march to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Saturday, April 4, 2015 to push for a state law that specifically bars discrimination based on sexual orientation or gender identity.  Sometimes you hate to be proven right. In an article in The American Prospect’s recent winter issue, I wrote that while marriage equality enjoyed some significant victories in 2014, Republicans would likely use their electoral successes that November to push back hard. Under the guise of “religious…
  • Playing Offense on Reproductive Rights

    Nathalie Baptiste
    15 Apr 2015 | 3:10 pm
    (AP Photo/Jonathan Bachman) Women with the National Latina Institute for Reproductive Health demonstrate outside of 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2015, in New Orleans.  Ever since the Roe v. Wade decisionin 1973, abortion foes and anti-choice activists have been working to roll back progress made in the fight for reproductive justice. Both the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections were decidedly Republican victories, and with those electoral wins came an onslaught of legislation designed to strip women of their constitutionally protected right to an abortion. MissouriKansas…
  • The Sensible, Risky Option

    Gershom Gorenberg
    15 Apr 2015 | 11:58 am
    (AP Photo/Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader) In this picture released by an official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei attends a meeting with a group of religious performers in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, April 9, 2015.  "There are only bad options. It's about finding the best one." "You don't have a better bad idea than this?" "This is the best bad idea we have, sir." That snippet of dialogue is from the film Argo, set just after the Iranian revolution in 1979. It's the scene in which CIA Director Stansfield Turner is listening to the…
 
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    Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

  • Links and Tweets...

    J. Bradford DeLong
    17 Apr 2015 | 7:24 pm
    Must-Read: Marshall Steinbaum: Hottest Tax Idea in Washington Actually Terrible http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=10558 Must-Read: Noah Smith: Fixed Mindsets http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=10560 Must-Must-Read: Alan Blinder: The Fed Can Be Patient About Raising Interest Rates http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=10552 Must-Read: Dani Rodrik: The Mistakes Made by Most Development Reformers http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=10556 Must-Read: Adam Ozimek: The New Liberal Consensus Is a Force to Be Reckoned With http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=10538 Must-Read: Chris Meissner: Research Summary…
  • 17 Apr 2015 | 4:04 pm

    J. Bradford DeLong
    17 Apr 2015 | 4:04 pm
    Must-Read: Ricardo J. Caballero and Emmanuel Farhi: The Safety Trap: "In this paper we provide a model of the macroeconomic consequences of a shortage of safe assets... In particular, we discuss the emergence of a deflationary safety trap equilibrium which is an acute form of a liquidity trap. In this context, issuing public debt, swapping private risky assets for public debt, or increasing the inflation target, stimulate aggregate demand and output, while forward guidance is ineffective. The safety trap can be arbitrarily persistent, as in the secular stagnation hypothesis, despite the…
  • Afternoon Seminar: Genevieve Kenney on Medicare and Medicaid

    J. Bradford DeLong
    17 Apr 2015 | 3:40 pm
    Thank you for a wonderful talk. A comment, and a question: The comment: I have long had a bone to pick with Amy Finkelstein and company and their Oregon Medicaid study. They use “significant” in two different ways in their paper. Improvements in blood pressure and in blood sugar levels in their study were not statistically significant. Not a lot of people in the sample had high blood pressure or high blood sugar, and so the drops seen were not big enough to be confident in a statistical sense that they were not just the luck fo the draw. But the drops in blood pressure and in blood sugar…
  • For the Weekend...

    J. Bradford DeLong
    17 Apr 2015 | 2:29 pm
  • 17 Apr 2015 | 1:00 pm

    J. Bradford DeLong
    17 Apr 2015 | 1:00 pm
    Across the Wide Missouri: Duncan Black: Eschaton: Why Didn't I Get Rich?: "I do think more journalists/columnists of a certain age (meaning ones not much older than me and younger)... ...are coming around to the realization that the economy is screwing them, too. There was a moment when a lot of them (we're talking ones at elite outlets, not your random small town paper) thought they'd done everything right, would become celebrities, and get Tom Friedman's speaking fees. The economy sure was working for them, and screw everybody else. But then, well, that didn't quite happen. Digby: Dana…
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    Calculated Risk

  • Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 46 states in February

    Bill McBride
    17 Apr 2015 | 4:29 pm
    From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for February 2015. In the past month, the indexes increased in 46 states, decreased in one, and remained stable in three, for a one-month diffusion index of 90. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 49 states and decreased in one (West Virginia), for a three-month diffusion index of 96.Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed: The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to…
  • Key Measures Show Low Inflation in March

    Bill McBride
    17 Apr 2015 | 1:17 pm
    The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.6% annualized rate) in March. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.2% (2.2% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report.Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban…
  • Goldman Sachs: "An Update on Student Loans: A Bigger Headwind but Still Not a Deal Breaker"

    Bill McBride
    17 Apr 2015 | 12:06 pm
    Some excerpts from interesting analysis by Goldman Sachs economists Alec Phillips and Hui Shan: An Update on Student Loans: A Bigger Headwind but Still Not a Deal Breaker The upshot is that the student debt burden on young households has increased and it has become a bigger headwind to housing demand compared to a few years ago. That said, we still think the sheer size of the millennials who are currently in their 20s and whose housing consumption should increase sharply in the coming years will support aggregate housing demand. However, we are skeptical that student loans would pose serious…
  • Lawler: Texas Employment Declines (Housing Impact)

    Bill McBride
    17 Apr 2015 | 8:58 am
    From housing economist Tom Lawler: Texas: Non-Farm Payoll Employment Fell in MarchThe Texas Workforce Commission reported that non-farm payroll employment in the Lone Star State declined by 25,400 (or -0.22%) on a seasonally adjust basis in March, the first monthly decline since September 2009 and the largest monthly decline since August 2009. Declines were broad-based from an industry perspective, with mining and logging, construction, manufacturing, and the service-producing sectors all experiencing a monthly dip in employment.From the end of 2013 to the end of 2014 non-farm payroll…
  • Preliminary April Consumer Sentiment increases to 95.9

    Bill McBride
    17 Apr 2015 | 7:03 am
    Click on graph for larger image.The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April was at 95.9, up from 93.0 in March.This was above the consensus forecast of 93.7. Lower gasoline prices are probably the reason for the increase over the last several months.
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    Crooked Timber

  • The Pace Picante Sauce Defense

    Belle Waring
    16 Apr 2015 | 7:48 am
    Oh God, I don’t even think this is funny enough to have a vaguely humorous headline. Let’s just say it’s black humour goddammmit mordant. You may have lost track of which black man got gunned down by which police just lately, but historically famed home of racial harmony Tulsa, OK, has seen one of the worst shootings in a while. (I say this and then I don’t even know because there are so many that are so bad. This is bad in a special way, though.). 73-year-old reserve Deputy Robert C. Bates shot and killed Eric Harris during an undercover, illegal gun-buy sting…
  • Whosoever Diggeth a Pit Shall Fall in It

    Belle Waring
    14 Apr 2015 | 7:44 pm
    People often complain that they can never listen to Bob Marley because the over-popularity of the compilation “Legend,” and its subsequent over-play in every randos college dorm room, every frat party, and every back-packer hostel, everywhere in the world. It is incongruous to sit on a big bamboo platform in Cambodia and listen to “Buffalo Soldier.” I’m sure this is no longer true and today’s college kids can have a happy experience in which they just find the song “No Woman, No Cry” all on their own. I hope. I am somewhat permanently inoculated…
  • Sunday photoblogging: rent protest!

    Chris Bertram
    12 Apr 2015 | 1:00 am
    Yesterday morning there was a protest near my house in Bristol against a letting agent who has been pushing for rent increases, the story made the national press. Here’s my photo:
  • Codes of conduct and the trade-offs of copyleft

    Sumana Harihareswara
    10 Apr 2015 | 12:49 pm
    A lot of open stuff — such as the Wikimedia/Wikipedia and Linux projects — are discussing or adopting codes of conduct, or expanding their existing policies. I’ll reveal my biases at the start and say I think this is a good thing; for more, read my speech “Hospitality, Jerks, and What I Learned”. But in this piece, I want to talk about the similarities and differences between codes of conduct and a set of agreements that some of these communities are more used to: “copyleft” or other restrictive software licenses. And I’d like to draw out some…
  • Ritchie Benaud is dead

    Harry
    10 Apr 2015 | 5:21 am
    Guardian obit here. Great leg spinner, truly great captain, but for my generation known, with Arlott, as one of the two greatest commentators. Can you imagine an English commentator, even Arlott, criticizing the England team like this: His final moments of Ashes test commentary:
 
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    Econbrowser

  • Three Graphs Regarding Wisconsin Economic Policy

    Menzie Chinn
    17 Apr 2015 | 7:58 pm
    Wisconsin employment falls in March; continues to lag the Nation. Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment from December 2014 (blue), February 2015 (red), March 2015 (green). March release from DWD. Source: BLS, and WI DWD. The big shift downward is due to the benchmark revision to figures, using figures from the QCEW through September 2014 (see discussion here). Of course, one should not put too much weight on one observation, especially a preliminary one. Greater reliance should be put on trends. Here, established trends remain in place. Figure 2: Log US nonfarm payroll employment…
  • Springtime for Walker and Wisconsin

    Menzie Chinn
    17 Apr 2015 | 5:31 pm
    Winter for … From Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: The University of Wisconsin-Madison will eliminate about 400 positions, most of them vacant, and will close or restructure several academic programs across campus over the next two years in response to state budget cuts, Chancellor Rebecca Blank announced on her blog Friday. … The College of Letters and Science — which teaches more than 80% of all freshman and sophomore credit hours, and nearly 60% of the overall credit hours at UW-Madison — will drop roughly 320 courses across departments by the end of fiscal 2017. Fewer courses…
  • Divergences: Interest Rates, Nominal, Real, Short, and Long

    Menzie Chinn
    16 Apr 2015 | 8:02 pm
    I’ve been wrapping up some long term projects (not planned as long term — they just took longer than expected) on interest rate parity and term spreads, and that spurred me to look at current patterns in interest rates. Some quick observations: interest rates remain higher in emerging markets than in core industrial countries. So too are real rates are higher despite higher inflation rates. And term spreads are larger in the US than other countries. First, consider nominal interest rates. Figure 1: Three month interest rates (blue bar), and ten year interest rates (red bar), as of…
  • Guest Contribution: “Chinese Outwards Mercantilism – the Art and Practice of Bundling”

    Menzie Chinn
    15 Apr 2015 | 10:28 pm
    Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (USC and NBER), Yothin Jinjarak (Victoria Business School), and Huanhuan Zheng (Chinese University of Hong Kong). This post is based upon the paper of the same title. China has been a prime example of export-led growth that has benefited from learning by doing, and by adopting foreign know-how, supported by a complex industrial policy. Arguably, a modern version of mercantilism has been at work (Aizenman and Lee 2008, World Economy). The rapid growth, growing trade, and current account/GDP surpluses in the 2000s…
  • How Much More Dollar Appreciation?

    Menzie Chinn
    13 Apr 2015 | 8:40 pm
    One important factor in the growth prospects for the US economy is the trajectory of the dollar. [1] If the dollar stabilizes at March levels, US economic growth might rebound. On the other hand, continued appreciation bodes ill. Based on history over the floating rate era, the expected duration of an appreciation is about 5 years (depreciations about 2 years). The current surge in the dollar has only been going on for only slightly over half a year, although when dated from the trough of 2011Q2, it’s been going on just a bit over 4 years. Either way, by this metric, it appears that there…
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    EconLog: Library of Economics and Liberty

  • Substitution in Nicotine Consumption

    David Henderson
    17 Apr 2015 | 2:53 pm
    (April 17, 2015 02:53 PM, by David Henderson) Yesterday's electronic New York Times and today's print edition carries the news story "Use of E-Cigarettes Rises Sharply Among Teenagers, Report Says" by Sabrina Tavernise. It's actually very good. Indeed, it reminds me of some of the best of the... (5 COMMENTS)
  • Congress sets the goals, the Fed sets the intermediate target

    Scott Sumner
    16 Apr 2015 | 12:45 pm
    (April 16, 2015 12:45 PM, by Scott Sumner) Over at TheMoneyIllusion I have a long post discussing Ben Bernanke's recent comments on monetary reform. There is one issue that seems especially important, and I wanted to devote an entire post to the subject. Here's Bernanke: I want to... (11 COMMENTS)
  • Is Ciudadanos a hope for Spain?

    Alberto Mingardi
    16 Apr 2015 | 7:12 am
    (April 16, 2015 07:12 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) With the UK and Spain going to the ballot box in the next few months, European politics is certainly more than Greece, at the moment. We know that the polls are rather foggy about England, but Spanish politics risks becoming... (2 COMMENTS)
  • Is the Fed allowed to create GDP prediction markets?

    Scott Sumner
    15 Apr 2015 | 3:54 pm
    (April 15, 2015 03:54 PM, by Scott Sumner) In the comment section of a recent blog post, David Andolfatto asked the following question: Scott, Does it fall within the Fed's present Congressional mandate to create markets in the instruments you want? (I honestly don't know. If we do,... (14 COMMENTS)
  • Did Edwin Cannan Think a 100 Percent Income Tax Rate Was Fair?

    David Henderson
    15 Apr 2015 | 12:41 pm
    (April 15, 2015 12:41 PM, by David Henderson) The earliest 20th-century reference I have been able to find to a Laffer curve effect is in a 1901 article by London School of Economics professor Edwin Cannan. While conceding that a 100 percent tax rate on amounts earned that... (5 COMMENTS)
 
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    Economist's View

  • NBER Annual Conference on Macroeconomics: Abstracts for Day One

    Mark Thoma
    17 Apr 2015 | 7:00 am
    First paper at the NBER Annual Conference on Macroeconomics Expectations and Investment, by Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer: Abstract Using micro data from Duke University quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers, we show that corporate investment plans as well as actual investment are well explained by CFOs’ expectations of earnings growth. The information in expectations data is not subsumed by traditional variables, such as Tobin’s Q or discount rates. We also show that errors in CFO expectations of earnings growth are predictable from past earnings and other data,…
  • Paul Krugman: That Old-Time Economics

    Mark Thoma
    17 Apr 2015 | 4:50 am
    Not all macroeconomic models failed during the Great Recession. "Old-time macroeconomics" ... "provided excellent guidance": That Old-Time Economics, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: America has yet to achieve a full recovery from the ... financial crisis. Still, it seems fair to say that we’ve made up much, though by no means all, of the lost ground. But you can’t say the same about the eurozone... Why has Europe done so badly? In the past few weeks, I’ve seen a number of speeches and articles suggesting that the problem lies in the inadequacy of our economic…
  • Have Blog, Will Travel

    Mark Thoma
    17 Apr 2015 | 4:13 am
    I am here today (as is Tyler Cowen, he explains the rules we have to follow): NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC.30th Annual Conference on MacroeconomicsMartin Eichenbaum and Jonathan Parker, OrganizersApril 17 and 18, 2015 The Royal Sonesta Hotel Cambridge, MA PROGRAM Friday, April 17: 8:30 am - Continental Breakfast 9:00 am - Nicola Gennaioli, Università Bocconi, Yueran Ma, Harvard University, Andrei Shleifer, Harvard University and NBER, Expectations and Investment Discussants:  Chris Sims, Princeton University and NBER, Monika Piazzesi, Stanford University and NBER 10:30 am…
  • Links for 04-17-15

    Mark Thoma
    17 Apr 2015 | 12:06 am
    Interview with Adair Turner - Cecchetti & Schoenholtz Forecasting vs explaining - Stumbling and Mumbling Credit Growth and Economic Activity after the Great Recession - FRBNY Fed’s John Williams: Timing of Rate Rise Is Overrated - NYTimes.com Steve Williamson is right that I am confused - Noahpinion From constitutional reform to fortified democracy - Vox EU Chinese  Mercantilism – the Art and Practice of Bundling - Econbrowser Oh, look! The uninsured rate fell again! - Kenneth Thomas Banking at the IRS - John Cochrane
  • Video: Rethinking Macro Policy

    Mark Thoma
    16 Apr 2015 | 9:11 am
    Rethinking Macro Policy III: Session 3. Monetary Policy in the Future Chair: José Viñals, Ben Bernanke, Gill Marcus, John Taylor Rethinking Macro Policy: Session 4. Fiscal Policy in the Future Chair: Vitor Gaspar, Marco Buti, Martin Feldstein, Brad DeLong,
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    EconTalk

  • Phil Rosenzweig on Leadership, Decisions, and Behavioral Economics

    Russell Roberts
    13 Apr 2015 | 3:30 am
    Phil Rosenzweig, professor of strategy and international business at IMD in Switzerland and author of the book Left Brain, Right Stuff: How Leaders Make Winning Decisions talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his book. The focus of the conversation is on the lessons from behavioral economics--when do those lessons inform and when do they mislead when applied to real-world business decisions. Topics discussed include overconfidence, transparency, the winner's curse, evaluating leaders, and the role of experimental findings in thinking about decision-making. Play Time: 1:02:18 How do I…
  • Continuing Education... Vernon Smith and James Otteson on Adam Smith

    Amy Willis
    7 Apr 2015 | 7:38 am
    This week's episode was recorded and filmed last month before a large crowd at Ball State University. EconTalk host Russ Roberts welcomed philosopher James Otteson and Nobel Laureate Vernon Smith to talk about another famous Smith... For this special episode, we'd like to again give you a chance to see your response on EconTalk. Choose one of the prompts below, and submit your response (500 words or less, please) via email to mail@econtalk.org by midnight EST on Sunday, April 12. [Video below the fold.] 1. Roberts asks each guest to characterize Smith's view of human nature. How do their…
  • Vernon Smith and James Otteson on Adam Smith

    Russell Roberts
    6 Apr 2015 | 3:30 am
    Vernon Smith and James Otteson talk with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about Adam Smith in front of a live audience at Ball State University. Topics discussed include Smith's view of human nature, the relevance of Smith for philosophy and economics today, and the connection between Smith's two books, The Theory of Moral Sentiments and The Wealth of Nations. Video for this special edition of EconTalk, "Will the Real Adam Smith Please Stand Up?" is available below the fold and at Youtube. Play Time: 1:04:38 How do I listen to a podcast? Download Size:29.7 MB Right-click or Option-click, and select…
  • Continuing Education... David Skarbek on Prison Gangs and the Social Order of the Underworld

    Amy Willis
    2 Apr 2015 | 6:41 am
    This week's episode, garnering a PG-13 rating from Roberts, was a fascinating look inside the formal and informal governance structures of America's prisons with guest David Skarbek. As always, we'd like to continue learning from and conversing with one another. Have a look at the prompts below, and share your response in the Comments. Thanks for listening; we love to hear from you. 1. What constitutes "formal governance" in prisons, according to Skarbek, and why does he argue that such governance is largely insufficient in prisons today? How do Skarbek's definitions of "formal" and…
  • David Skarbek on Prison Gangs and the Social Order of the Underworld

    Russell Roberts
    30 Mar 2015 | 3:30 am
    David Skarbek of King's College London and author of The Social Order of the Underworld: How Prison Gangs Govern the American Penal System talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the written and unwritten rules in America's prisons for the most violent and dangerous criminals. Skarbek explains how and why prison gangs emerged in the last half of the 20th century, their influence both inside and outside of prisons, and how their governance structure is maintained. Play Time: 1:16:24 How do I listen to a podcast? Download Size:35.0 MB Right-click or Option-click, and select "Save…
 
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    Environmental Economics

  • Friday Beer Post & Image of the Day

    Tim Haab
    17 Apr 2015 | 6:32 am
    Just sayin': UPDATE:  For crap's sake (thanks for point his out Mauricio R.), somehow I missed the environmental hook to the story: The beer will come in 22oz bottles and contain 6.3 percent alcohol. Additionally, the beer collaboration will benefit an organization called "Protect Our Winters," which helps fight the effects of climate change on mountains. No word yet on if drinking the beer will be like chugging ice cream.
  • JEL codes in year 1 of the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists

    John Whitehead
    16 Apr 2015 | 10:33 am
    I received four emails today with "Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists X, Y, Month Year is now available online" in the subject line, where X, Y is: Vol. 1, No. 3 Vol. 1, No. 4 Vol. 2, No. 1 Vol. 2, No. 2 This represents the first full year of regular submitted papers to the JAERE (Vol. 1, No. 1-2 included only invited papers). So I thought it would be interesting to see what sorts of papers are being published in JAERE. Here is a content analysis of the JEL codes reported by the authors: Not surprising, the most highly represented JEL code is…
  • Why does SAGE Open think that 9 emails in the past 12 months will generate a submission?

    John Whitehead
    15 Apr 2015 | 9:17 am
  • Most everyone thinks they'll get ripped off by a carbon tax with revenue recycling

    John Whitehead
    15 Apr 2015 | 6:33 am
    Rainy days and Mondays always get me down: On Monday, researchers from Yale and Utah State University unveiled a new statistical technique that allows an in-depth accounting of Americans’ attitudes toward global warming. The resulting maps—down to the county level—reveal some interesting takeaways. via common-resources.org Here is my favorite:
  • Cap-and-trade in Ontario

    John Whitehead
    15 Apr 2015 | 6:29 am
    Justice in Ontario*: Canada’s provinces are taking command of the nation’s battle against climate change, seizing the initiative from a reluctant federal government as the clock ticks down to a crucial international climate agreement later this year. Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne on Monday signed a historic deal to join Quebec’s cap-and-trade system for carbon emissions, while British Columbia Premier Christy Clark was invited to promote her province’s carbon tax at the World Bank – an honour not usually accorded to a provincial leader. ... Many of the details in Ontario’s…
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    footnoted*

  • Golden parachutes for government service?

    Michelle Leder
    17 Apr 2015 | 11:37 am
    We’re deep into proxy season, with the deadline for companies that are on a calendar year only 13 days away (9 if you only count business days). And we’ve noticed an interesting shareholder proposal this year that’s on the ballot at four different financial services powerhouses: Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley. The proposal by the AFL-CIO Reserve Fund uses a phrase we haven’t seen before in SEC filings: government service golden parachutes, which the union describes as rewards for employees who leave their jobs to become government…
  • An inverse relationship at J.C. Penney

    Michelle Leder
    27 Mar 2015 | 8:05 am
    Earlier this week, beleaguered retailer JC Penney Co, filed its proxy statement. Given some of the high-profile comings and goings at the company over the past few years, we’ve paid pretty close attention to their proxy and this year’s version didn’t disappoint. For the past few years, the company has at least one — and sometimes two — executives who have received hefty severance packages for relatively short stints when whatever magic potion they were pedaling failed to turn the company around. This year’s proxy didn’t disappoint: the company…
  • Hunting for Perks in Proxy Season

    Sonya Hubbard
    18 Mar 2015 | 7:16 am
    Proxy season is heating up, and every year we come across perks that don’t quite fit the mold. Once upon a time, we used to write about these sorts of perks more regularly. But lately, to borrow a line from the hit movie, Frozen, we tend to “Let it Go.” Still, one of those unusual perks remains close to our heart: the company-owned sports lodge. That’s because back in 2008, we discovered  A. Schulman’s fish camp, which won Footnoted’s “Worst Footnote of 2008.” There was also the  executive dude ranch that we wrote about in 2012. We suppose that…
  • Goldman Sachs says “People are People”

    Michelle Leder
    24 Feb 2015 | 7:32 am
    Buried in the 405-page tome that Goldman Sachs filed at 9:44 pm last Friday — several hours after the SEC closed its electronic window, which means the filing did not become publicly available until Monday morning — was a very interesting (and new) disclosure that provided some insight into the company’s view of the world and should be welcome news to Goldman’s 34,000 employees. In an age of high frequency trading and big data, the company said that human beings are the company’s greatest resource. This disclosure came buried at the bottom of a 1,500 word risk…
  • A very good deal at Ross Dress for Less

    Murti Bhattiprolu
    20 Feb 2015 | 10:52 am
    Anyone who’s ever shopped at a Ross Dress for Less knows what to expect: fluorescent lights highlighting piles of off-price clothes and shoes. Shopping there is more about the hunt for a good deal than anything else. Judging by this 8-K filed earlier today, a former Ross executive has found an unusually good deal — one most Ross shoppers could only fantasize about. For the next two years, Doug Baker, the former chief merchandising officer at Ross’ dd’s DISCOUNTS, will collect his regular base salary of $960,000. He’ll also get bonuses — up to 75% of his…
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    Free exchange

  • China's slowing economy, oil prices and booming house prices

    C.R. | LONDON
    17 Apr 2015 | 10:00 am
    THIS week's print edition has an array of economics articles that may be of interest. The following have particularly caught our eye:China's economy: Coming down to earth (Briefing)Oil prices: unconventional but normal (Finance)Housing and the election: The right to buy...votes (Britain)And don't forget to take a look at this week's Free Exchange column, which looks at how politicians manipulate economies before elections, and the latest updates to our 
  • A recovery begins?

    Z.G. | OXFORD
    16 Apr 2015 | 11:14 am
    AUSTRALIA'S economy had been rocked by the recent collapse in global commodity prices. Falling iron ore and coal prices have hit both the mining industry and government tax revenues particularly hard. This has revealed a weakness in the labour market that, until now, had been covered up by the commodity boom.But the latest set of job figures released today suggests that there may be a light at the end of the tunnel. An extra 37,700 jobs were created in March, more than twice what economists had expected. Following on from another robust jobs report in February, the surge in employment has…
  • Not so impatient

    B.L. | OXFORD
    16 Apr 2015 | 7:28 am
    MOST people would prefer to receive a gift now, instead of the same one in 20 years’ time. Economists refer to this notion by speaking of "discount rates", the rate at which future costs and benefits are adjusted in order to make them comparable with those today. If, for example, you are indifferent between receiving $100 today or $105 in one year’s time, you "discount" future consumption at a rate of 5%. Normally, economists worry about discount rates over a few years, or perhaps decades. But how do you calculate them over hundreds of years?The question of what discount rate to…
  • Unfair

    C.W. | LONDON
    15 Apr 2015 | 9:34 am
    NOT long ago, Russia and Ukraine's finances looked very precarious. But now one of those countries is doing a lot better. Surprisingly, it is not the country that has just been given a $25 billion bail-out from the West. Rather, it is the oil-exporter that is subject to a plethora of Western sanctions. So why is Russia's economy bouncing back?At the end of 2014 the rouble was in freefall. By the beginning of 2015, it was worth a third less against the dollar than six months previously (see chart). Amid expectations of a deep recession in 2015, many economists thought things in Russia were…
  • Rouble out of trouble?

    The Economist
    14 Apr 2015 | 10:03 am
    THIS week our correspondents discuss the rally in the Russian rouble, GE cutting loose its finance arm and China’s deficient economy
 
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    Greg Mankiw's Blog

  • Advice from Larry Katz

    Greg Mankiw
    16 Apr 2015 | 6:46 am
    Via Nicholas Kristof:“A broad liberal arts education is a key pathway to success in the 21st-century economy,” says Lawrence Katz, a labor economist at Harvard. Katz says that the economic return to pure technical skills has flattened, and the highest return now goes to those who combine soft skills — excellence at communicating and working with people — with technical skills.“So I think a humanities major who also did a lot of computer science, economics, psychology, or other sciences can be quite valuable and have great career flexibility,” Katz said. “But you need both, in my…
  • Jeff Sachs defends David Cameron

    Greg Mankiw
    11 Apr 2015 | 2:44 pm
    Here.
  • The Sticky-Price Victory

    Greg Mankiw
    11 Apr 2015 | 2:27 am
    Noah Smith on "What causes recessions?"
  • A Libertarian Coalition?

    Greg Mankiw
    8 Apr 2015 | 2:14 pm
    Paul Krugman says there aren't enough libertarians in the U.S. to make a libertarian candidate like Rand Paul viable.  I am not so sure about the paucity of libertarians, but even so, I doubt that Rand Paul is the best representative of that group.Similar to Krugman, I would define a libertarian voter as one who leans left on social issues (such as same-sex marriage) and right on economic issues (such as taxes and regulation). I certainly put myself in that camp, and I don't think I am as lonely as Krugman suggests. I meet lots of students with similar…
  • Interview with Dani Rodrik

    Greg Mankiw
    6 Apr 2015 | 11:17 am
    Here.
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    Hedge fund

  • High frequency trading

    Hedge Fund
    15 Apr 2015 | 4:08 pm
    The best LONG TERM returns come from good SHORT TERM strategies. My preferred holding period is forever but it's rarely feasible and never optimal. A substantial allocation to HFT benefits portfolios. Dinosaurs fear what they don't understand so they badmouth HFT. Unlike them I fear losing money so invest in a NEW sources of return. HFT is lower risk than LFT, low frequency trading. Skilled frequent traders MADE MONEY in 2008 unlike slower traders.High frequency investor? We MUST invest appropriately to survive in this era of constant change and innovation. There is no long…
  • Emerging markets

    Hedge Fund
    12 Apr 2015 | 4:08 pm
    When China and India become the world's largest economies AGAIN, so what? In the last 20 centuries, USA was largest for 1, UK for 1 and China or India for the previous 18. Other things being equal, the most populated nations have the biggest economies. As recently as 1700 China and India accounted for 50% of global GDP. The "Asian century" is simply reversion to the usual. The abnormal era was 19th and 20th century but things will soon be back to normal.Emerging market beta? NO. Emerging market alpha? YES. The highest returns will come from NOT WHERE YOU LIVE. National bias in this…
  • World's best investment

    Hedge Fund
    11 Apr 2015 | 11:08 am
    Top investor? Unlike most, I must aim to make money for clients no matter what markets do. Performance needs require onsite due diligence at all top SKILL BASED managers. I define "best" by risk adjusted returns. Not AUM or fame which are usually negatively correlated with future performance. Steep losses and high volatility are what index funds deliver every few years. Time in drawdowns is NEVER recovered by investors.50% drawdowns and years of losses are a disgrace. YOUR money is too important to be risked on "averages". I prefer talent that delivers INDEPENDENTLY of market direction.
  • Hedge fund joke

    Hedge Fund
    9 Apr 2015 | 5:07 am
    Hedge fund manager, a long only fund and a Nobel prize winner in Economic Sciences are flying north to present to an institutional client in New Zealand. As the plane lands they see one purple sheep alone in a field.Professor Passive says "Kiwi sheep are purple! I must buy them all now. At any price the farmer asks, no matter how expensive or overvalued. No need to know sheep business or earnings. Forget about analysis or due diligence. Ignore risk! Prices are always right as markets are efficient. It's not my money. I have academic tenure and a Nobel prize. Risk free...for me."Long only dude…
  • Warren Buffett hedge fund

    Hedge Fund
    8 Apr 2015 | 4:08 pm
    Below are George Soros and Warren Buffett actual net returns since 1969. Warren prefers book value but that is NOT the way to assess his performance. Limited partnerships are valued at NAV. Warren's listed closed end fund means shareholder sentiment also affects returns. Stock price appreciation is what BRKA investors actually get. The green line is speculator John Bogle low fee, high cost index fund, with its pathetic performance and vexacious volatility.Asset classes or skill strategies? One counterexample, yes just ONE, is enough to destroy efficient market dogma and…
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    Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up

  • Messi Announces Retirement, Reporter Asks About Half-Time Score

    Jeff Matthews
    27 Mar 2015 | 4:33 am
     Tom Prescott announced his retirement last night.   You may not have heard of him, but as CEO of Align Technologies (the inventors of Invisalign “invisible braces”) Prescott helped turn a $70 million revenue company with 35% gross margins, negative operating margins and a $127 million market value into a near-$800 million revenue company with near-80% gross margins and 25% operating margins. Oh, yeah, and a $4.5 billion market value, last we checked. More than that, Tom Prescott helped Invisalign develop from a niche product not much liked by the orthodontists…
  • Charlie Named Name

    Jeff Matthews
    28 Feb 2015 | 10:04 am
    Ned Isakoff: “You got me blacklisted from Hop Sing’s?”Delivery Man:  “She named name!”—Seinfeld, “The Race”  Like Elaine Benes in that Seinfeld episode, Charlie Munger named name. Two names, in fact: Greg Abel and Ajit Jain. Unlike Elaine Benes’s name-naming, however, the two named by Munger have nothing to do with Communist agitation and the destruction of capitalism as we know it—far from it.   Rather, they have everything to do with Capitalist orthodoxy in its purest, most meritocratic form: who might succeed Warren Buffett as CEO of…
  • From Cleaning Harbors to Feeding Roughnecks: “Next Year in Jerusalem!”

    Jeff Matthews
    11 Jan 2015 | 8:42 am
     The Canadian tar sands have been very good to Clean Harbors, a perennial Wall Street favorite that evolved from a disaster cleanup business (for which the company’s web pages still carry a plug at the bottom: “For 24-Hour Emergency Response, call 800.OIL.TANK”) into a diversified industrial service company through 35-plus acquisitions costing about $2 billion over 25 years. The tar sands business came with the 2009 acquisition of Eveready, and so swiftly did CLH expand deeper into so-called unconventional energy (everything from feeding and housing roughnecks in lodges to…
  • The NotMakingThisUp Book Review: The Best Least Looked-Forward-To Book I Have Ever Received, John Cleese's "So, Anyway..."

    Jeff Matthews
    27 Dec 2014 | 8:27 am
     I received for Christmas the least looked-forward-to book I have ever received: John Cleese’s “So, Anyway…”.   Cleese, of course, is a founder of Monty Python, the wildly successful British comedy group that took male teenagers by storm in the early 1970s and was considered inheritor to The Beatles’ mantle as conquerors of America by none other than George Harrison (according to his friend Eric Idle, another Python).  Cleese is also co-creator, co-writer, producer and star of what has been called the best TV sitcom ever created, Fawlty Towers. …
  • Shazam! From the Boss to the King to John & Paul (But Not George or Ringo), Not to Mention Jessica & Nick, and Taylor Swift

    Jeff Matthews
    19 Dec 2014 | 1:45 pm
    2014 Editor’s Note: Well, Michael Bublé’s computer is still releasing holiday songs, which is the worst we can say about this year’s holiday music survey.  The best we can say—and it is truly good news—is that The Boss’s hard-driving, live version of “Santa Claus is Comin’ to Town,” done entirely without computer-aidedBublé-style vocals, seems to be gaining much deserved traction.   Meanwhile, one of our previous also-ran mentions in the What-Did-We-Do-To-Deserve-This? category, one Taylor Swift, deserves a big boo-yah for telling the Spotify…
 
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    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

  • Denials Mount as Greece Robs Peter to Pay Paul; Shell Games and Check Kiting

    17 Apr 2015 | 7:36 pm
    Denials in Greece about its sorry state of affairs are now so ridiculous that even some ardent Greek supporters are likely laughing out loud (off the record of course).Please consider Greece Scrapes Bottom of Barrel in Hunt for Cash to Stay Afloat. Greece will need to tap all the remaining cash reserves across its public sector -- a total of 2 billion euros ($2.16 billion) -- to pay civil service wages and pensions at the end of the month, according to finance ministry officials.Greece's finance ministry denied that it would need to tap remaining cash reserves to meet salary payments, without…
  • Déjà Vu Weather? No, It's a Recession!

    17 Apr 2015 | 1:01 pm
    New Seasonal Pattern?Yesterday Fed Governor Stanley Fischer proclaimed U.S. Economy Should Rebound After ‘Poor’ First Quarter. “There’s definitely a rebound on the way already, and we’ll see at what speed it proceeds,” Mr. Fischer said during an interview on CNBC. “The first quarter was poor. That seems to be a new seasonal pattern. It’s been that way for about four of the last five years.Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said Wednesday that he thinks a “strong case” can be made to raise rates at the Fed’s June policy meeting, and suggested the economy’s recent…
  • Peugeot Introduces Self-Driving Car Features for 2018

    17 Apr 2015 | 11:34 am
    Not wanting to be left behind in the race for autonomous cars, French manufacturer Peugeot says the 508 Peugeot Model will contain "self-driving aids for bottleneck situations." Via translation from l'informaticien. Imagine a car that automatically adapts to a bottleneck ahead, handling the "accordion " for you. All drivers who have experienced long minutes of wait will welcome what Peugeot will do in 2018.Peugeot has not yet fully detailed his concept: it is not known if the driver will completely do something else for a traffic jam or if it will still "attend" the car in one way or another.
  • Nothing Magical About 2% Inflation Target Says Bernanke

    17 Apr 2015 | 12:44 am
    It's pretty rare for former Fed chair Ben Bernanke to say much of anything that makes any sense. He recently did, just not in context.“I don’t see anything magical about targeting 2 percent inflation,” Bernanke told a conference in Washington sponsored by the International Monetary Fund.Given that inflation targeting is quite stupid, that sentence in isolation may cause some to believe common sense seeped into Bernanke's brain.Alas, his brain actually went into reverse: Bernanke Open to Raising Inflation Target Fed Struggles to Meet. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke…
  • Homebuilding Off to Slow Start in 2015; Starts Miss Expectations; Atlanta Fed GDP Forecast 0.1%

    16 Apr 2015 | 12:11 pm
    Add home building to the list of disappointing economic reports.The Bloomberg Consensus for seasonally adjusted starts was for 1.04 million. Instead we saw .926 million. HighlightsHousing is still sluggish based on the latest starts data which disappointed. Starts in March slightly rebounded a monthly 2.0 percent after plunging a monthly 15.3 percent in February. Expectations were for a 1.040 million pace for February. The 0.926 million unit pace was down 2.5 percent on a year-ago basis.By region, starts gained 114.9 percent in the Northeast-almost certainly a weather related rebound but in a…
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    Overcoming Bias

  • My Two May Em Talks

    Robin Hanson
    15 Apr 2015 | 12:30 pm
    You are invited to attend two unusual conferences where I’ll speak in May: 1. INSTED: Agitate! Los Angeles, May 2, 10am-10pm. $25 if you act fast. I talk at time TBD: The Age Of Em: Envisioning Brain Emulation Societies Tired of all the wining and boasting on the latest tech & politics trends? See it all shrink to insignificance as we contemplate the next revolution on the scale of the farming and industrial revolutions. The Age of Em will start sometime in the next century; in it, brain emulations could change almost everything. 2. Building The New World Conference, May 28-31,…
  • Perfect Bits

    Robin Hanson
    14 Apr 2015 | 5:50 pm
    Did you know that your phone, pad, and laptop are all “computers” wherein all relevant info is stored in “bits”? And did you further know that you can get tools to let you very easily change almost any of those bits? Since you can change most any bits in these devices, you need never tolerate any imperfections in anything that results from those bits. Thus you should never see any disagreeable screen or menu or feature or outcome in any app in any of those systems for more than a short moment. Same for books, music, and movies. After all, as soon as you notice any imperfection, why…
  • Light On Dark Matter

    Robin Hanson
    11 Apr 2015 | 11:00 am
    I posted recently on the question of what makes up the “dark matter” intangible assets that today are most of firm assets. Someone pointed me to a 2009 paper of answers: [C.I. = ] Computerized information is largely composed of the NIPA series for business investment in computer software. … [Scientific R&D] is designed to capture innovative activity built on a scientific base of knowledge. … Non-scientific R&D includes the revenues of the non-scientific commercial R&D industry … the costs of developing new motion picture films and other forms of entertainment,…
  • ‘About’ Isn’t About You

    Robin Hanson
    9 Apr 2015 | 10:55 am
    Imagine you told people: What looks like the sky above is actually the roof of a cave, and trees hold it up. The food we eat doesn’t give us nutrition; we get nutrition by rubbing rocks. The reason we wear clothes isn’t for modesty or protection from weather, but instead to keep cave frogs from jumping on our skin. Imagine that you offered plausible evidence for these claims. But imagine further that people mostly took your claims as personal accusations, and responded defensively: “Don’t look at me. I’ve always been a big supporter of trees, I’ve always warned against the…
  • Party in the Street

    Robin Hanson
    5 Apr 2015 | 2:25 pm
    Michael Heaney and Fabio Rojas’s new book Party in the Street: The Antiwar Movement and the Democratic Party after 9/11 tries to explain the puzzle of antiwar protests falling greatly after the election of Obama, who mostly continued previous war policies: In examining war policy positions taken by candidates in the 2004 and 2008 [US presidential] elections, we find that Democratic politicians articulated more fervent antiwar positions than did politicians within the Republican Party, even though there were varying positions among politicians in both parties. Exit poll data reveal that…
 
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Gigerenzer on logical rationality vs. ecological rationality

    Andrew
    17 Apr 2015 | 6:54 am
    I sent my post about the political implication of behavioral economics, embodied cognition, etc., to Gerd Gigerenzer, who commented as follows: The “half-empty” versus “half-full” explanation of the differences between Kahneman and us misses the essential point: the difference is about the nature of the glass of rationality, not the level of the water. For Kahneman, rationality is logical rationality, defined as some content-free law of logic or probability; for us, it is ecological rationality, loosely speaking, the match between a heuristic and its environment. For…
  • Perhaps the most contextless email I’ve ever received

    Andrew
    16 Apr 2015 | 6:52 am
    Date: February 3, 2015 at 12:55:59 PM EST Subject: Sample Stats Question From: ** Hello, I hope all is well and trust that you are having a great day so far. I hate to bother you but I have a stats question that I need help with: How can you tell which group has the best readers when they have the following information: Group A-130, 140, 170,170, 190, 200, 215, 225, 240, 250 Group B- 188, 189, 193, 193, 193, 194, 194, 195, 195, 196 Group A-mean (193), median (195), mode (170) Group B- mean (193), median(193.5), mode (193) Why? This is for my own personal use and understanding of this subkject…
  • Item-response and ideal point models

    Andrew
    15 Apr 2015 | 9:40 am
    To continue from today’s class, here’s what we’ll be discussing next time: - Estimating the direction and the magnitude of the discrimination parameters. - How to tell when your data don’t fit the model. - When does ideal-point modeling make a difference? Comparing ideal-point estimates to simple averages of survey responses. P.S. Unlike the previous post, this time I really am referring to the class we had this morning. The post Item-response and ideal point models appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • A message I just sent to my class

    Andrew
    15 Apr 2015 | 6:24 am
    I wanted to add some context to what we talked about in class today. Part of the message I was sending was that there are some stupid things that get published and you should be careful about that: don’t necessarily believe something, just cos it’s statistically significant and published in a top journal. And, sure, that’s true, I’ve seen lots of examples of bad studies that get tons of publicity. But that shouldn’t really be the #1 point you get from my class. This is how I want you to think about today’s class: Consider 3 different ways in which you will…
  • “For better or for worse, academics are fascinated by academic rankings . . .”

    Andrew
    14 Apr 2015 | 6:23 am
    I was asked to comment on a forthcoming article, “Statistical Modeling of Citation Exchange Among Statistics Journals,” by Christiano Varin, Manuela Cattelan and David Firth. Here’s what I wrote: For better or for worse, academics are fascinated by academic rankings, perhaps because most of us reached our present positions through a series of tournaments, starting with course grades and standardized tests and moving through struggles for the limited resource of publication space in top journals, peer-reviewed grant funding, and finally, the unpredictable process of citation…
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    Streetsblog New York City

  • NYC: Queens BP Melinda Katz Prioritizes Parking Over Affordable Housing

    Stephen Miller
    17 Apr 2015 | 12:32 pm
    Few things set off alarm bells for car-owning New Yorkers more than the thought of having less parking. So when the Department of City Planning proposed a minor reduction in parking requirements, the community board chairs of Queens got a case of road rage, with Borough President Melinda Katz at the wheel. Queens Borough President Melinda Katz. Photo: MelindaKatz/Twitter Here’s the problem: The city requires parking for most new development — a mandate that jacks up the cost of housing, even if residents don’t own cars. Senior citizens and low-income households,…
  • NYC: Cab Driver Who Killed Cooper Stock Remains Eligible for TLC License

    Brad Aaron
    17 Apr 2015 | 11:11 am
    The cab driver who killed Cooper Stock is still eligible to be licensed by the Taxi and Limousine Commission. Cooper Stock Koffi Komlani struck 9-year-old Cooper and his father, Richard Stock, in an Upper West Side crosswalk in January 2014. This week, Komlani pled guilty to careless driving and was sentenced to a nominal fine and a six-month suspension of his drivers license. Though Cooper and his dad were walking with the right of way, Manhattan District Attorney Cy Vance filed no criminal charges against Komlani. The TLC opted not to renew Komlani’s probationary hack license when it…
  • NYC: Two Community Boards Sign Off on Greenpoint Avenue Bridge Bike Lanes

    Stephen Miller
    17 Apr 2015 | 9:45 am
    New bike lanes on the Greenpoint Avenue Bridge (solid blue arrows) have received support from two community boards, but the intersection of Greenpoint and Borden Avenues (purple dot) remains in question. Map: DOT [PDF]Four years ago, DOT shelved a plan that would have added bike lanes to the Greenpoint Avenue Bridge, also known as the J.J. Byrne Bridge, after a year of outcry from area businesses and residents. Now, a modified plan has cleared two community boards little more than a month after it was first proposed. Unlike the previous plan, which put both eastbound and westbound traffic…
  • NYC: Today’s Headlines

    Stephen Miller
    17 Apr 2015 | 5:56 am
    Hit-and-Run Driver Critically Injures 88-Year-Old Man Riding Bike in South Ozone Park (WNBC) Queens CB Members Oppose Even the Smallest Effort to Reduce Parking Requirements (Forum, Q Chron) Queens CB 5 Chair: Woodhaven SBS Street Safety Redesign Will Kill “1,000 Kids a Week” (Q Chron) FiDi Parents Want Enforcement, Crossing Guard After Sidewalk Driver Injures Pedestrian (DNA) DMV Delayed Hearing for Cooper Stock’s Killer Even After Vance Declined to Press Charges (Post) Advance Covers City Council’s BRT Planning Bill; 2nd Ave Sagas Is Not Impressed Suit From Limo…
  • NYC: DOT Scraps Bus Lanes in Kew Gardens Hills for Flushing-Jamaica SBS

    Stephen Miller
    16 Apr 2015 | 2:27 pm
    This afternoon, the City Council overwhelmingly passed a bill that requires DOT to work with the MTA on a citywide Bus Rapid Transit plan to be updated every two years. The vote came a day after DOT told bus lane opponents in eastern Queens that it will water down a Select Bus Service proposal in their neighborhood. I. Daneek Miller and Rory Lancman. In many ways, the new bill codifies much of the city’s existing BRT planning process. It requires DOT to work with the MTA on a 10-year blueprint for the city’s BRT network updated every two years, taking into…
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    The Big Picture

  • Louis C.K. on the Howard Stern Show (04/15/2015)

    Barry Ritholtz
    17 Apr 2015 | 5:00 pm
    Enjoy this while you can, I expect it will come down eventually  
  • Succinct Summations of Week Events 4.17.15

    Barry Ritholtz
    17 Apr 2015 | 1:00 pm
    Succinct Summations week ending April 17th Positives: 1. The Hang Seng Index crossed 28,000 for the first time since 2007 2. Initial jobless claims rose to 294k vs the 280k expected (bellows 300k for 6 straight weeks). 3. Core CPI rose 1.8% vs expectations of a 1.7% rise. 4. The NAHB index rose to 56, better than the 55 expected and up from 52. Negatives: 1. Retail sales rose 0.9% vs expectations of +1.1%, the fourth consecutive miss. 2. China’s exports fell 15% versus expectations for a 12% rise. 3. Core retail sales rose 0.5% vs expectations of a 0.6% rise. 4. New York Fed fell to -1.19…
  • The Kansas Experiment is Over. Kansas Lost

    Barry Ritholtz
    17 Apr 2015 | 10:00 am
    Every year, right after the April 15 tax deadline, the U.S. Census releases its data on the prior year’s state tax collections. It is a fascinating document, filled with great data points for tax and policy wonks. It reveals a good deal about the state of local economies, economic trends and results of specific policies. In broad terms, the financial fortunes of the states are improving. A quick excerpt: State government tax revenue increased 2.2 percent, from $847.1 billion in fiscal year 2013 to $865.8 billion in 2014, the fourth consecutive increase, according to the U.S. Census…
  • Millennial Disruption Index

    Barry Ritholtz
    17 Apr 2015 | 9:00 am
    Source: Millennial Disruption Index
  • Druckenmiller: Look for Three Market Surprises in 2015

    Barry Ritholtz
    17 Apr 2015 | 6:00 am
    Stan Druckenmiller is betting on the unexpected. With one of the best long-term track records in money management, he is anticipating three surprises: Improving economy in China, Rising oil prices, and no Federal Reserve interest rate increase in 2015. Stan Druckenmiller: Zero-Interest Rates Unnecessary
 
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    The Epicurean Dealmaker

  • Out of Service

    5 Apr 2015 | 6:14 am
    I met a traveller from an antique landWho said:—Two vast and trunkless legs of stoneStand in the desert. Near them on the sand,Half sunk, a shatter’d visage lies, whose frownAnd wrinkled lip and sneer of cold commandTell that its sculptor well those passions readWhich yet survive, stamp’d on these lifeless things,The hand that mock’d them and the heart that fed.And on the pedestal these words appear:“My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!”Nothing beside remains: round the decayOf that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,The lone and level…
  • Uncle Warren Explains It All to You

    1 Mar 2015 | 1:45 pm
    “Sure, sure.”— Sidney J. Mussburger, The Hudsucker ProxyApparently some doddering old fart in Omaha, Nebraska published a celebratory letter yesterday in connection with an obscure anniversary some of you might have heard about. Something to do with a mid-range furniture store or failed textile mill or something. Anyway, I felt compelled to read it, if only because every financial pundit in the Western Hemisphere has been recommending its salutary virtues to me with a fervor approaching the evangelical. Personally, I found it more hokey and self-congratulatory than illuminating, but…
  • Goldman Sachs Doesn’t Care What You Think

    14 Feb 2015 | 9:20 am
    A cat may look at a king.— English proverbSo, in an apparent effort to raise its rank in the Most Recognized Polling Firm in America Sweepstakes, Harris Poll recently published a survey of 27,278 individuals across this fine land to determine America’s 100 most- and least-loved corporations. Bloomberg Business subsequently took time out of its busy day to gleefully report that Goldman Sachs, investment bank and über squid of the global financial markets, finished dead last:People hate Goldman Sachs more than oil spills and the Koch brothers.Well, far be it for me to rain on Bloomberg’s…
  • Passing Fair

    18 Jan 2015 | 1:13 pm
    What though the sea with waves continuall Doe eate the earth, it is no more at all ; Ne is the earth the lesse, or loseth ought : For whatsoever from one place doth fall Is with the tyde unto another brought : For there is nothing lost, that may be found if sought.― Edmund Spenser, The Faerie QueeneMunicipal bond market maven, government official, and longtime Twitter fixture Kristi Culpepper penned an interesting riposte yesterday to Leon Wieseltier’s recent jeremiad against the disruptive cultural effects of technology in The New York Times. Leon, you may recall, laid about rather…
  • Nerd Intersectionality

    2 Jan 2015 | 12:45 pm
    Infancy is not what it is cracked up to be. The child seems happy all the time to the adult, because the adult knows that the child is untouched by the real problems of life; if the adult were similarly untouched he is sure that he would be happy. But children, not knowing that they are having an easy time, have a good many hard times. Growing and learning and obeying the rules of their elders, of fighting against them, are not easy things to do. Adolescence is certainly far from a uniformly pleasant period. Early manhood might be the most glorious time of all were it not that the sheer…
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    OUPblog

  • Narrating nostalgia

    SoniaT
    17 Apr 2015 | 5:30 am
    The most recent issue of the Oral History Review will be zipping across the world soon. To hold you over until it arrives, we interviewed one of the authors featured in this edition, Jennifer Helgren, about her article, “A ‘Very Innocent Time’: Oral History Narratives, Nostalgia and Girls’ Safety in the 1950s and 1960s.” Can you talk a bit about how this project began? Did you set out to write about safety and nostalgia, or did it arise on its own? The article arose from an entirely different project. I was actually at the Roganunda Council of Camp Fire Girls in Yakima, Washington…
  • Publishing the Oxford Medical Handbooks: an interview with Elizabeth Reeve

    Joe Hitchcock
    17 Apr 2015 | 3:30 am
    Many medical students and trainee doctors are familiar with the “cheese and onion,” but not the person responsible for the series. We caught up with Oxford Medical Handbooks’ Senior Commissioning Editor, Elizabeth Reeve, to find out about her role in publishing Oxford’s market leading series. How are you involved with Oxford Medical Handbooks? I am the Senior Commissioning Editor for the Oxford Medical Handbooks series, so I’m ultimately responsible for the strategy, future direction, and success of the programme, in both print and digital formats. I determine…
  • Living with multiple sclerosis

    JulieF
    17 Apr 2015 | 1:30 am
    Multiple sclerosis (MS) is widely thought to be a disease of immune dysfunction, whereby the immune system becomes activated to attack components of the nerves in the brain, spinal cord, and optic nerve. New information about environmental factors and lifestyle are giving persons with MS and their health care providers new tools with which to manage the disease and live healthier and more productive lives. It has been known for decades that there is a higher incidence of MS the farther away one is from the equator. One explanation for this may be that in colder climates there is less sunlight…
  • From Carter to Clinton: Selecting presidential nominees in the modern era

    KatherineS
    17 Apr 2015 | 12:30 am
    Franklin D. Roosevelt broke the two-term precedent set by George Washington by running for and winning a third and fourth term. Pressure for limiting terms followed FDR’s remarkable record. In 1951 the Twenty-Second constitutional amendment was ratified stating: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice…” Accordinglyreelected Presidents must then govern knowing they cannot run again. The amendment transformed what was speculative into a definitive statement. No more than two. The result? Washington and the media soon turn to consider who will be…
  • Five lessons from ancient Athens

    Aaron Oppenheim
    16 Apr 2015 | 3:30 am
    There’s a lot we can learn from ancient Athens. The Greek city-state, best recognized as the first democracy in the world, is thought to have laid the foundation for modern political and philosophical theory, providing a model of government that has endured, albeit in revised form. Needless to say, the uniqueness of its political institutions shaped many of its economic principles and practices, many of which are still recognizable in current systems of government. Today, in a global environment of economic turmoil, ancient Athens may be even more relevant that ever before, imparting…
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    Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

  • Ratiocination

    Don Boudreaux
    17 Apr 2015 | 11:39 am
    (Don Boudreaux) Here’s a letter to the Huffington Post: Hillary Clinton insists that “[t]here’s something wrong when CEOs make 300 times more than the typical worker” (“Hillary Clinton Blasts Pay For CEOs, Hedge Fund Managers In Campaign Kickoff,” April 15). Well now.  As a speaker Ms. Clinton is paid, on average, $300,000 per talk; as a speaker I am paid, on average, $1,000 per talk.  As a speaker, therefore, Ms. Clinton is paid 300 times more than I am paid!  Is “something wrong”?  Is the market for speakers rigged unfairly in favor of famous and politically…
  • Some Links

    Don Boudreaux
    17 Apr 2015 | 8:25 am
    (Don Boudreaux) Writing recently in the Washington Post, the Cato Institute’s David Boaz makes the case for giving taxpayers greater say over how their money is spent. Steve Horwitz argues that [w]hile the [political] right resists same-sex marriage and the left thinks that cultural paradigm shifts are responsible for the transformation of today’s family, the fact is the creative powers of the market are largely responsible for the face of the family in the early 21st century. Daniel Bier takes Paul Krugman to task for the latter’s call to expand Social Security. Over at…
  • Insipidness Guaranteed

    Don Boudreaux
    17 Apr 2015 | 5:59 am
    (Don Boudreaux) Suppose that you are charged with selling a single food item to at least a hundred million people in a highly diverse society.  You can pick whatever item you wish, but you can pick only one.  If you fall short of getting at least 100,000,000 people to voluntarily choose your item over a rival item that will be offered by a competitor, you lose.  (Your competitor is playing by the same rules that you are playing by.) Being highly competitive, you hate losing.  So you carefully go about selecting which item to choose. What kind of item do you think you’ll finally…
  • Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    17 Apr 2015 | 2:57 am
    (Don Boudreaux) …from page 70 of David Mamet’s 2011 book, The Secret Knowledge: [T]o indulge in any racial preference is not to award to a Race, but to the State the power to create differing classes of citizens, and to rule on who shall belong to each class.
  • Yes to Fast-Track Authority

    Don Boudreaux
    16 Apr 2015 | 1:22 pm
    (Don Boudreaux) I applaud the fact that the U.S. Senate finally is seriously considering giving fast-track trade-negotiaing authority back to the U.S. president.  While trade deals struck by governments are never ideal – because ideal is complete and unconditional free trade (unilateral if necessary) – such deals, in a world infected with politics, do tend to make trade freer than it would otherwise be.  And that’s a very good thing.
 
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    Dollars & Sense Blog

  • Thursday Links: Buffett, Chicago/Illinois, Atlanta Teachers

    Chris Sturr
    9 Apr 2015 | 12:26 pm
    Here are today’s topics, in no particular order: (1) Warren Buffett, the Greedy Grandfather of Omaha:  Joe Nocera had a puff piece in the New York Times last March invitingly called  How Warren Buffett Does It, discussing the magic of Buffett’s “value investing.” Thankfully, lots of the online comments called b.s. on Nocera, pointing out the unseemly sources of some of Buffett’s wealth. Several comments mentioned the great work of David Cay Johnston, in whose 2012 book The Fine Print: How Big Companies Use “Plain English” and Other Tricks to Rob…
  • Siding with Wall Street’s “Winners”

    Chris Sturr
    27 Mar 2015 | 12:35 pm
    A piece by William D. Cohan in the current issue of Vanity Fair, Wall Street Executives from the Financial Crisis of 2008: Where Are They Now?, is pretty harsh on the bankers who lost their top positions in the 2008 meltdown (Jimmy Cayne of Bear Stearns, Stan O’Neil and John Thain of Merrill Lynch, Ken Lewis of BoA, Angelo Mozilo of Countrywide, Dick Fuld of Lehman), chronicling their downfalls, their enormous severance packages, much smaller amounts in fines and penalties they had to pay, the ginormous mansions or penthouses they now live in, and their refusal to speak with Cohan…
  • Macroeconomics in the Age of Climate Change

    Chris Sturr
    23 Mar 2015 | 2:00 pm
      The lectures and award ceremony for the 2015 Leontief Prize are happening tonight at 5:30pm. Here is information about this year’s prize winners.  Click here or on the image above for streaming video. The post Macroeconomics in the Age of Climate Change appeared first on Dollars & Sense Blog.
  • New Issue! Farms Today–a collaboration with Farm Aid

    Chris Sturr
    13 Mar 2015 | 12:39 pm
    Our March/April issue, a collaboration with Farm Aid on the theme of Farms Today, is finished–we’re sending it to the printers today and to e-subscribers tomorrow. Here is the p. 2 editorial note: Farms Today In his comment for this special issue, a collaboration between Dollars & Sense and Farm Aid, Willie Nelson argues that we need a new and broader definition of wealth—from what can be extracted from producers and nature to what sustains producers, their families, their communities, and the natural world. “As caretakers of our soil and water,” he writes, “this has…
  • Links on SYRIZA-Eurogroup Agreement

    Chris Sturr
    26 Feb 2015 | 6:05 am
    Links on Greece:  Now that the Syriza government has reached an agreement with the powers that be in Europe to extend its bailout for four months, there seems to be a lot of disagreement about how to assess it, even among commentators and sources that I trust. Most people seem to think the outcome is bad for Syriza and Greece, but some people think the jury is still out and the agreement may give Syriza some breathing room to make more headway later; others think it’s bad but Syriza was forced or even blackmailed into it; others blame Syriza’s strategy and call for it to admit…
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    Credit Slips

  • Ukraine's Bond Restructuring: Surgery, Conspiracy, and Campaign

    Anna Gelpern
    17 Apr 2015 | 9:22 am
    Debt restructuring is the second largest source of outside financing for Ukraine’s new IMF program. The Fund itself brings $17.5 billion over four years; $9.6 billion comes from governments and other multilaterals (including Europe, the United States, and most recently, China), leaving $15.3 billion for the "debt operation." The jargon makes debt restructuring sound like a mix of surgery, conspiracy, and military campaign, which together pretty much sum up Ukraine's challenge. First, the surgery. The IMF has been unusually prescriptive about the debt deal parameters,…
  • Russia's Bond: It's Official! (... and Private ... and Anything Else It Wants to Be ...)

    Anna Gelpern
    16 Apr 2015 | 10:31 pm
    Ukraine's bond restructuring talks are in high gear, and, as ever, Russia is trouble du jour. Not only is it threatening to hold out in the bond deal and take Ukraine to arbitration, Russia also seems poised to block IMF disbursements to Ukraine using an arcane Fund policy on "lending into arrears." My hunch is that this last risk is overblown, and in any event should not drive IMF policy or Ukraine's restructuring strategy.  Mark and Mitu have an excellent post reviewing the latest controversy, wherein Russia argues that its $3 billion Eurobond is…
  • Dodd Frank and Pink Champagne

    Stephen Lubben
    16 Apr 2015 | 6:46 pm
    Over at Dealb%k, I argue that section 117 of Dodd-Frank is more Siouxsie and the Banshees than Eagles.
  • Dodd-Frank 2.0: The Unfinished Business of Financial Reform

    Adam Levitin
    16 Apr 2015 | 9:36 am
    Our former co-blogger, Senator Elizabeth Warren, delivered an incredibly important speech yesterday laying out the work still to be done on financial reform. This speech is a bigger deal than Senator Warren's Antonio Weiss speech or her famous Citibank speech. This speech is a blueprint for Dodd-Frank 2.0.  It lays out a detailed vision of the challenges for reform work going forward: break up the big banks; a 21st Century Glass-Steagal Act that promotes narrow banking; a targeted financial transactions tax to reduce unnecessary volatility from excessive arbitrage; elimination of the…
  • Who is Helping Consumers With Defaulted Student Loans?

    David Lander
    16 Apr 2015 | 7:38 am
    Clearly, the biggest surprise in consumer borrowing since the crash has been the explosive expansion of student loan debt. It has surpassed both auto lending and credit card lending. And, since it ties with Payday Lending and pre-crash sub-prime mortgage lending for the thinnest underwriting there are defaults aplenty.  Consumer advocates are rightly urging the Department of Education to provide simpler and clearer paths forward for consumers with student loans in default but many people still need a helper.  As defaults in mortgage loans and on credit card loans have fallen, providers who…
 
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    The Aleph Blog

  • On Being A Forced Seller in a Panic

    David Merkel
    17 Apr 2015 | 1:25 am
    Photo Credit: wackystuffNo one wants to be a forced seller in a panic. So how does anyone get into that situation?  Two things: bad planning and a bad scenario.Let’s start with the obvious stuff: the moment you start using leverage, there is a positive probability of total failure, and more leverage increases the probability.  Other factors that raise the probability are lack of diversification of assets, a short term for repayment on the leverage, a run on the bank, or restrictive rules on what happens if your assets decline too much in value.For the big guys, I think that covers…
  • From Stream to Shining Stream

    David Merkel
    11 Apr 2015 | 9:17 pm
    Photo Credit: Mark StevensThere’s one thing that is a misunderstanding about retirement investing. It’s not something that is out-and-out wrong. It’s just not totally right.Many think the objective is to acquire a huge pile of assets.Really, that’s half of the battle.The true battle is this: taking a stream of savings, derived from a stream of income, and turning it into a robust stream of income in retirement.That takes three elements to achieve: saving, compounding, and distribution.What’s that, you say?  That’s no great insight?Okay, let me go a little…
  • On Human Fertility, Part 4

    David Merkel
    2 Apr 2015 | 3:01 am
    I write about this every now and then, because human fertility is falling faster then most demographers expect. Using the CIA Factbook for data, the present total fertility rate for the world is 2.425 births per woman that survives childbearing. That is down from 2.45 in 2013, 2.50 in 2011, and 2.90 in 2006. At this rate, the world will be at replacement rate (2.1), somewhere between 2025 and 2030. That’s a lot earlier than most expect, and it makes me suggest that global population will top out at 8.5 Billion in 2050, lower and earlier than most expect.Have a look at the Total Fertility…
  • Opinions on the Market, Redux

    David Merkel
    31 Mar 2015 | 12:52 am
     Here’s the second half of my most recent interview with Erin Ade at RT Boom/Bust. [First half located here.] We discussed:Stock buybacks, particularly the buyback that GM is doingValuations of the stock market and bondsEffect of the strong dollar on corporate earnings in the USEffect of lower crude oil prices on capital spendingInvesting in Europe, good or bad?Seven minutes roar by when you are on video, and though taped, there is only one shot, so you have to get it right.  On the whole, I felt the questions were good, and I was able to give reasonable answers.  One nice thing…
  • The Bond Market Tells The Fed What To Do, Not Vice-Versa

    David Merkel
    28 Mar 2015 | 9:12 pm
    Photo Credit: Tulane Public Relations || James Carville wants to be “reincarnated” as the bond market, to scare everyone — boo!I was reading this article at Reuters, and musing at how ludicrous it is for the Fed to think that it can control the reaction of the bond market to tightening Fed policy, should it ever happen.  The Fed has never been able to control the bond market, except on the short end, and only with the highest quality paper.The long end is controlled by the economy as a whole, and its rate of growth, while lower quality bonds and loans also respond more to…
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    Quoting the Crisis

  • Greek banks are stuck on life support — and time is running...

    12 Apr 2015 | 10:29 pm
    Greek banks are stuck on life support — and time is running out Tomas Hirst, businessinsider.com With the situation in Greece looking increasingly grim, the European Central Bank has been repeatedly raising its emergency lending to the country’s shattered banks.But the one thing it wanted to avoid was allowing emergency liquidity…
  • The Lagarde Consensus Moisés Naím, theatlantic.com IMF chief...

    12 Apr 2015 | 1:50 pm
    The Lagarde Consensus Moisés Naím, theatlantic.com IMF chief Christine Lagarde on the global economy’s “new mediocre"—and why women are better leaders than men.The 1990s was the era of the Washington Consensus—a suite of reforms, including privatization and open trade, that the World Bank,…
  • How a living wage is calculatedeconomist.com ON APRIL 7th...

    12 Apr 2015 | 1:46 pm
    How a living wage is calculatedeconomist.com ON APRIL 7th Chicagoans went to the polls to select a new mayor; after a hard slog, the incumbent mayor Rahm Emanuel beat his challenger Jesús “Chuy” García. Mr García’s upstart campaign targeted Mr …
  • JAMIE DIMON: ‘There will be another crisis’ Myles...

    8 Apr 2015 | 9:39 pm
    JAMIE DIMON: ‘There will be another crisis’ Myles Udland, businessinsider.com In his annual letter to JPMorgan shareholders, CEO Jamie Dimon has a clear warning:“Some things never change — there will be another crisis, and its impact will be felt by the financial markets.”Dimon adds that the trigger of the next…
  • Tax Court Rules That Being Accommodation Party In Tax Shelter Is...

    22 Mar 2015 | 11:51 am
    Tax Court Rules That Being Accommodation Party In Tax Shelter Is Hard Work Peter J Reilly, forbes.com I’ve heard it said that one of the advantages of going to a name brand college is the people you end up meeting there. That is how it seems to have worked out for Jason Chai. Jason Chai was in Tax Court arguing about whether he owed self-employmen…
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    IMF Survey Magazine

  • Africa’s Short-term Priority: Tackle Shock of Lower Oil Prices

    17 Apr 2015 | 1:56 pm
    Managing the impact of sharply lower oil prices is sub-Saharan Africa’s short-term policy priority, IMF African Department Director Antoinette Sayeh says, adding that the subcontinent is still set to remain one of the world’s fastest-growing regions this year.
  • Asia May Face Slower Future Growth, say Top Economists

    17 Apr 2015 | 12:18 pm
    After a period of rapid growth, Asia should expect much slower economic expansion in the future as the region is likely to revert to levels of average growth, a former U.S. Treasury Secretary has told an audience at the IMF-World Bank Meetings.
  • The Elusive Pursuit of Inflation

    17 Apr 2015 | 8:31 am
    Having worked for years to tame inflation, the world’s central banks are now facing an increasing challenge to reawaken it. In a Spring Meetings seminar, top economists discussed the causes of low inflation, the tools to raise it and implications for global currency movements.
  • Lift Tomorrow’s Growth For Better Economic Future—Lagarde

    16 Apr 2015 | 11:19 am
    Current global growth is not enough to cut high unemployment, bolster middle-class incomes, and cut poverty, IMF chief Christine Lagarde tells a Washington news conference. She calls for lifting today’s growth, lifting tomorrow’s growth, and working together.
  • Now Is the Time! Use Fiscal Policy to Support Sustainable Growth

    15 Apr 2015 | 9:30 am
    In the global context of a moderate and uneven economic recovery, sound management of public finances can secure elusive growth and jobs.
 
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    24/7 Wall St.

  • The 52-Week Low Club for Friday

    Paul Ausick
    17 Apr 2015 | 1:04 pm
    April 17, 2015: Here are four stocks among the 37 equities making new 52-week lows today. American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) dropped about 5.4% on Friday to post a new 52-week low of $76.53 against a...
  • The 4 Stocks That Sank the Dow on Friday

    Paul Ausick
    17 Apr 2015 | 1:01 pm
    April 17, 2015: Markets opened lower again on Friday following the monthly report showing that the consumer price index rose just 0.2% in March. The possibility of a Greek default on sovereign debt...
  • Why S&P Raised Nokia on Alcatel-Lucent Merger

    247chrislange
    17 Apr 2015 | 10:30 am
    S&P, which is evaluating the Nokia and Alcatel-Lucent merger from a credit perspective, sees the combined companies in a positive light.
  • Will New Verizon Plan Save Pay TV?

    Paul Ausick
    17 Apr 2015 | 10:20 am
    Beginning this weekend, Verizon Communications FiOS customers will be able to subscribe to a new plan for a total price of $55 a month.
  • Are Small Cap Stocks Better Than Large Caps Again?

    247chrislange
    17 Apr 2015 | 8:40 am
    A Credit Suisse report sees some distinct advantages for small cap stocks in 2015, as headwinds are continuing to mount for large cap stocks.
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    The Baseline Scenario

  • No More Cheating: Restoring the Rule of Law in Financial Markets

    Simon Johnson
    15 Apr 2015 | 11:20 am
    By Simon Johnson The political debate about finance in the US is often cast as markets versus regulation, as if “more regulation” means the efficiency of private sector decisions will necessarily be impeded or distorted. But this is the wrong way to think about the real policy choices that – like it or not – are now being made. The question is actually what kind of markets do you want: fair and well-functioning, with widely shared benefits; or deceptive, dangerous, and favoring just a relatively few powerful people? In a speech on Wednesday, Senator Elizabeth Warren (D., MA) laid out…
  • It Can Wait. Really.: The Real Solution to Notification Overload

    James Kwak
    13 Apr 2015 | 7:21 am
    By James Kwak Beeping iPads! Buzzing phones! Zapping watches! Soon, apparently, we won’t be able to complete a thought without being interrupted by some “intelligent” piece of technology. The solution, according to Steven Levy, is yet more technology: a great artificial intelligence effort to comb through our information, assess the urgency and relevance, and use a deep knowledge of who we are and what we think is important to deliver the right notifications at the right time. . . . the automated intake of our information will allow us to “know by wire,” as super-smart systems…
  • Good Ideas Are Not Enough

    James Kwak
    13 Apr 2015 | 7:20 am
    By James Kwak Dan Davies put together a brilliant roundup of the clever business models that financial technology startups are pitching to their investors — and why most of them are deeply flawed. Some of them apply much more broadly than to just the financial services industry. Number three, for example — “Hoping that a load of people who actively mistrust each other will trust you instead” — is a decent description of the business-to-business marketplaces that Ariba was trying to build when I worked there back at the beginning of the millennium. I’d like to add two…
  • Vaguely Monthly Roundup

    James Kwak
    8 Apr 2015 | 1:27 pm
    By James Kwak Did you know that blogging is dead? That’s what I hear, anyway. I plan to say something about it once I figure out if I have anything to say on it. Anyway, as you have probably noticed, I do most of my sporadic writing over at Medium these days. Since I last checked in here, I wrote stories about: Why I crippled my smartphone; The misleading campaign against the estate tax; and The fallacy on the first page of Gregory Mankiw’s textbook I also posted an essay by Walt Glazer about inequality. You can see all of my Medium stories here, or you can read the whole Bull…
  • “Middle-Class Economics”

    James Kwak
    27 Feb 2015 | 6:46 am
    By James Kwak Supposedly President Obama is making “middle-class economics” one of the key themes of his final two years in office. I don’t really know what this is supposed to mean in a country where people making ten times the median household income call themselves “middle class” and there are tens of millions of people in poverty. For starters, I think it’s important to understand the distribution of wealth in the country as it stands today. That’s the theme of a story I wrote on Medium earlier this week, “The Magnitude of…
 
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    Trends... Find them, ride them and get off.

  • Peak Goldman or Peak Google…Who do you Anti-Trust

    Howard Lindzon
    16 Apr 2015 | 8:07 am
    Goldman Sachs is making serious money as usual and the stock is back above $200. Whenever I chat with my pal Michael Parekh (retired Goldman partner), I know that Goldman can’t be stopped. No inside information, but the club is the club. Do you really think Goldman has not figured out how to have a trading arm within the new rules of the system? The message is clear for another generation of bankers…Goldman wins. I had this feeling that we had seen ‘Peak Goldman’ back in March when I wrote this, but let’s face it, Goldman is the system. As for Google, which I…
  • Great News for Stocktwits…More Capital, Faster Growth, Better Mobile, New Features

    Howard Lindzon
    15 Apr 2015 | 9:24 am
    I have been off the blogging grid too long. Today I felt like catching up our community on the ‘State of Stocktwits’. Stocktwits had a profitable March. We know how to survive on our own. I am really happy with the progress of our mobile apps. The iOS version is getting 5 stars and our new Android app is in beta with our community starting this week. We have made some great hires to help us speed product and design updates. We have raised a fresh round of capital to help us grow even faster. Our venture capitalists participated but we also added some very strategic Asian fintech…
  • Live Streaming Video…Twitter, Periscope and Meerkat

    Howard Lindzon
    22 Mar 2015 | 6:32 pm
    Over the last few weeks a small Israeli company called ‘Meerkat’ has stormed the mobile video scene. I can’t fully explain the phenomenon, but the APP is at the top of Apple’s best curated stream and sure to break into the top 150 ‘free’ apps in the app store. I have been using the product and it is awesome. It is intimate, fun, simple and powerful. Last month Twitter (TWTR) bought a startup called Periscope (for a reported $100 million) and the product has not even launched. I have used the beta product and it is awesome. The good news is that Wall Street…
  • The Bubble Predictions Continue…and Ted Knight

    Howard Lindzon
    21 Mar 2015 | 11:19 am
    It’s easy to grin when your ships comes in and you have the stock market beat…but a man worthwhile is a man that can smile, when his shorts are too tight in the seat.. Ted Knight, Caddy shack I miss Ted Knight. I know this quote by heart and I learned it before I cared about stocks and markets. I just loved Caddyshack. The past few weeks have seen a new wave of ‘bubble’ talk. Mark Cuban got it started. I did not read it. A NYC finance professor just posted a Mark Cuban takedown. I did not read it, but here it is. It’s probably loaded with data. The professor is…
  • Laughs and Giggles …Better than Any Vitamins.

    Howard Lindzon
    12 Mar 2015 | 8:39 am
    I love to laugh.I need to giggle more. Kids laugh 300 times a day. I grimace and pee 300 times a day and eat too loudly. The Atlantic says my tastes have changed. Whatever. Life is just as funny, but the grind to make a living puts you with too many people and corporations that really do suck. My daughter Rachel is 17 and she will LOL at the drop of a hat. I hear her giggle all the time watching ‘The Office’ on Netflix or her new favorite shows ‘Parks and Recreation’ and ‘Friends’. After 17 years of parenting I would say my favorite thing is hearing Rachel…
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    Economic Principals

  • Between Montgomery, Alabama, and the Stonewall Inn

    dw
    12 Apr 2015 | 2:04 pm
    What propelled Massachusetts Institute of Technology economics to the top of the heap? As Bloomberg Businessweek memorably illustrated in 2012, most of the leadership arrayed against the financial crisis was educated to the task at MIT, starting with Ben Bernanke, of the Federal Reserve Board; Mervyn King, of the Bank of England; and Mario Draghi, of the European Central Bank. That they and innumerable other talented youngsters chose MIT and turned out so well owed to the presence of two strong generations of research faculty at MIT, led  in the 1970s and ’80s by Rudiger Dornbusch, Stanley…
  • Back to Cranks

    dw
    5 Apr 2015 | 12:31 pm
    When John Makin, an economist long associated with the American Enterprise Institute, died last week, reporter Nick Timiraos gave him a gallant send-off  in The Wall Street Journal: “Economist Who Elevated Think-Tank Discourse.” Makin, 71, had long been a favorite source for serious journalists. A University of Chicago Ph.D., he quit his professorship at the University of Washington to join the conservative think-tank in Washington, DC, in 1984. Twenty years as chief economist for Caxton Associates, a New York hedge fund, retiring as a principal in 2010, maintaining his AEI affiliation,…
  • Caught Short

    dw
    29 Mar 2015 | 7:33 pm
    EP was traveling and reporting last week. He tackled a task too tricky for the time allotted to it when he returned home. Back next week!
  • Spring Hopes

    dw
    22 Mar 2015 | 1:57 pm
    The news seems uniformly awful.  US relations with Israel are at a historic low ebb after the elections there. Another ugly election is coming up in May, in the United Kingdom.  NATO is planning maneuvers in the Baltic nations and Romania and Bulgaria. The ceasefire in southeastern Ukraine depends on Vladimir Putin’s whim. The launch of China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has left the US looking like a diminished giant deserted by the allies whom it had sought to bully. Meanwhile, the House and Senate Republicans have made a nonsensical proposal to balance the budget in ten…
  • Samuelson’s Tavern, Solow Speaking: How MIT Transformed Economics

    dw
    15 Mar 2015 | 2:00 pm
    As something of beat reporter, I have half a dozen good stories about economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in various stages of preparation. So what to make of a recent book, MIT and the Transformation of American Economics (Duke, 2014). I love it, naturally. Not only does it contribute fundamentally to our knowledge of how Paul Samuelson and Robert Solow at MIT more or less invented the field we call macroeconomics and came to dominate the field for a time, but it illuminates the difference between history and journalism. Transformation is the hardbound annual supplement to…
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    Marginal REVOLUTION

  • Expectations and Investment

    Tyler Cowen
    17 Apr 2015 | 6:24 am
    That is the Gennaioli, Ma, and Shleifer paper being presented at the NBER macro conference, pdf here.  There are two key points to this paper.  First, actual data on the expectations of corporate CFOs have predictive power for investment, even when Tobin’s Q is measured.  Second, expectations about future earnings are not rational in the Lucasian sense.  I’ll update with remarks in the comments section of this post as the discussion proceeds (feel free to leave comments on my comments), again note that I am not allowed to attribute specific comments to individuals other than…
  • NBER Annual conference on macroeconomics

    Tyler Cowen
    17 Apr 2015 | 3:55 am
    Today I am at the NBER annual macroeconomics conference as an observer.  The program and papers are here, and they look very interesting.  You may be hearing more about this later; I am allowed to blog the presentations but not attribute specific comments to individuals.  The Bernanke talk I cannot cover at all.
  • China tobacco facts of the day

    Tyler Cowen
    16 Apr 2015 | 10:54 pm
    A conglomerate on the order of the old Gulf + Western, China National runs more than 160 cigarette brands, manufactured in about 100 factories across the country, and uses its earnings to invest in banks, luxury hotels, a hydroelectric plant, a golf course, and even drugmakers. Most of its money goes to its owner, the Chinese government; the tobacco industry accounts for about 7 percent of the state’s revenue each year [emphasis added], and China National controls as much as 98 percent of the market. All told, the industry in China employs more than 500,000 Chinese. They are among…
  • What I’ve been reading

    Tyler Cowen
    16 Apr 2015 | 9:46 pm
    1. Dead Wake: The Last Crossing of the Lusitania, by Erik Larson.  My favorite of his books, fun and readable as you would expect, many interesting details including what happens to you in water at 55 degrees Fahrenheit. 2. Philip Glass, Words Without Music.  “A lot of Einstein on the Beach was written at night after driving a cab.”  An excellent memoir of both Glass’s early life and the New York creative world up through 1976 or so. 3. Colm Tóibín, On Elizabeth Bishop.  A good example of a book I wish was longer than it was, it is shorter than its 199 pp. might…
  • The (tight money) culture that is Dutch

    Tyler Cowen
    16 Apr 2015 | 6:32 pm
    Just when it seemed the image of bankers couldn’t get any more battered or bizarre, the Dutch central bank has fired a 46-year-old female employee claimed to have been working after hours as a highly paid prostitute – specialising in sadomasochism. The Dutch central bank forbids “indecent behavior,” she had failed to register with the local chamber of commerce or pay appropriate taxes, and she was in violation of zoning laws. There is more at the link.
 
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    Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

  • Links and Tweets...

    J. Bradford DeLong
    17 Apr 2015 | 7:24 pm
    Must-Read: Marshall Steinbaum: Hottest Tax Idea in Washington Actually Terrible http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=10558 Must-Read: Noah Smith: Fixed Mindsets http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=10560 Must-Must-Read: Alan Blinder: The Fed Can Be Patient About Raising Interest Rates http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=10552 Must-Read: Dani Rodrik: The Mistakes Made by Most Development Reformers http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=10556 Must-Read: Adam Ozimek: The New Liberal Consensus Is a Force to Be Reckoned With http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=10538 Must-Read: Chris Meissner: Research Summary…
  • 17 Apr 2015 | 4:04 pm

    J. Bradford DeLong
    17 Apr 2015 | 4:04 pm
    Must-Read: Ricardo J. Caballero and Emmanuel Farhi: The Safety Trap: "In this paper we provide a model of the macroeconomic consequences of a shortage of safe assets... In particular, we discuss the emergence of a deflationary safety trap equilibrium which is an acute form of a liquidity trap. In this context, issuing public debt, swapping private risky assets for public debt, or increasing the inflation target, stimulate aggregate demand and output, while forward guidance is ineffective. The safety trap can be arbitrarily persistent, as in the secular stagnation hypothesis, despite the…
  • Afternoon Seminar: Genevieve Kenney on Medicare and Medicaid

    J. Bradford DeLong
    17 Apr 2015 | 3:40 pm
    Thank you for a wonderful talk. A comment, and a question: The comment: I have long had a bone to pick with Amy Finkelstein and company and their Oregon Medicaid study. They use “significant” in two different ways in their paper. Improvements in blood pressure and in blood sugar levels in their study were not statistically significant. Not a lot of people in the sample had high blood pressure or high blood sugar, and so the drops seen were not big enough to be confident in a statistical sense that they were not just the luck fo the draw. But the drops in blood pressure and in blood sugar…
  • For the Weekend...

    J. Bradford DeLong
    17 Apr 2015 | 2:29 pm
  • 17 Apr 2015 | 1:00 pm

    J. Bradford DeLong
    17 Apr 2015 | 1:00 pm
    Across the Wide Missouri: Duncan Black: Eschaton: Why Didn't I Get Rich?: "I do think more journalists/columnists of a certain age (meaning ones not much older than me and younger)... ...are coming around to the realization that the economy is screwing them, too. There was a moment when a lot of them (we're talking ones at elite outlets, not your random small town paper) thought they'd done everything right, would become celebrities, and get Tom Friedman's speaking fees. The economy sure was working for them, and screw everybody else. But then, well, that didn't quite happen. Digby: Dana…
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    Dani Rodrik's weblog

  • Turkish economic myths

    Dani Rodrik
    16 Apr 2015 | 7:16 am
    Preparing for a panel discussion on Turkey gave me the opportunity of putting together some notes and slides on the country’s economy. That Turkey is not doing well at the moment, economically or politically, is well known. But the roots of the problem remain misunderstood. Many analysts blame the weakening of “structural reforms” (on economics) and the turn towards authoritarianism after the Gezi protests in 2013 (on the politics). See for example here. In truth, Turkey’s problems on both fronts predate the recent slowdown in growth and have been long ingrained in the governing…
  • Premature deindustrialization in the developing world

    Dani Rodrik
    12 Feb 2015 | 5:56 am
    Mention “deindustrialization,” and the image that comes to mind is that of advanced economies making their way into the post-industrial phase of development. In a new paper,[1] I show that the more dramatic trend is one of deindustrialization in the developing countries. This is a trend that is appropriately called premature deindustrialization, since it means that many (if not most) developing nations are becoming service economies without having had a proper experience of industrialization. Latin America appears to be the worst hit region. But worryingly similar trends are very much in…
  • Greek elections, democracy, political trilemma, and all that

    Dani Rodrik
    7 Jan 2015 | 6:37 am
    Two-and-a-half years ago I wrote a short piece titled "The End of the World as We Know It" which began like this: Consider the following scenario. After a victory by the left-wing Syriza party, Greece’s new government announces that it wants to renegotiate the terms of its agreement with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union. German Chancellor Angela Merkel sticks to her guns and says that Greece must abide by the existing conditions. Fearing that a financial collapse is imminent, Greek depositors rush for the exit. This time, the European Central Bank refuses to…
  • Levels of intellectual responsibility

    Dani Rodrik
    3 Jan 2015 | 7:18 am
    This piece on “Erdogan’s Willing Enablers” prompts me to put down a few thoughts on the role that various members of the Turkish media and intelligentsia have played in enabling the steady deterioration of the political climate in Turkey over the last decade. What stands out with these intellectuals is that, even if they were not in all cases liberal in outlook, they all claimed to espouse values consistent with Western democracy: respect for human rights, civil liberties, and the rule of law.    I don’t want to go over the entire saga of how leading Turkish intellectuals…
  • Services, manufacturing, and new growth strategies

    Dani Rodrik
    15 Oct 2014 | 7:15 am
    I gave a talk yesterday on New Growth Strategies at the World Bank, which was more or less an elaboration of this short piece. I argued that industrialization had pretty much run out of steam as a growth strategy, that services would need to be the focus going forward, and that this required in turn a different policy mindset about how to increase productivity. In particular, I argued that policies focusing on generating a sequence of sectoral “winners,” which worked so  well in manufacturing (garments to car seats to cars to electronics), would have much smaller payoff in services,…
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    99% Invisible

  • 160- Perfect Security

    Roman Mars
    14 Apr 2015 | 8:10 pm
    The pursuit of lock picking is as old as the lock, which is itself as old as civilization. But in the entire history of the world, there was only one brief moment, lasting about 70 years, where you could put something under lock and key—a chest, a safe, your home—and have complete, unwavering certainty that no intruder could get to it. This is a feeling that security experts call “perfect security.” Sam Greenspan has the story.
  • 159- The Calendar

    Roman Mars
    8 Apr 2015 | 8:57 am
    A month is hardly a unit of measurement. It can start on any day of the week and last anywhere from 28 to 31 days. Sometimes a month is four weeks long, sometimes five, sometimes six. You have to buy a new calendar with new dates every single year. It’s a strange design. Avery Trufelman explores the weirdness and alternate designs for the calendar.
  • 158- Sandhogs

    Roman Mars
    31 Mar 2015 | 12:54 pm
    Eighty years ago, New York City needed another tunnel under the Hudson River. The Holland Tunnel and the George Washington Bridge could no longer handle the mounting traffic between New Jersey and Manhattan. Thus began construction of the Lincoln Tunnel. But this is not a story about the Lincoln Tunnel. This is about the men who made it. The Sandhogs. Dan Collison and Elizabeth Meister are Long Haul Productions.
  • 54- The Colour of Money (R)

    Roman Mars
    25 Mar 2015 | 12:37 am
    United States paper currency is so ubiquitous that to really look at its graphic design with fresh eyes requires some deliberate and focused attention. Pull a greenback out from your wallet (or look at a picture online) and really take it in. All the fonts, the busy filigree, the micro patterns… It’s just dreadful. The Colour of Money
  • 157- Devil’s Rope

    Roman Mars
    17 Mar 2015 | 11:23 pm
    In the mid 1800s, not many (non-native) Americans had ever been west of the Mississippi. When Frederick Law Olmstead visited the west in the 1850s, he remarked that the plains looked like a sea of grasses that moved  “in swells after a great storm.” Massive herds of buffalo wandered the plains. Cowboys shepherded cattle across long stretches of no man’s land. It was truly the wild and unmanaged west, but it was all about to change, due, in large part, to one very simple invention that would come to be known as “the devil’s rope.”
 
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    Eat the Bankers.com

  • Just Around the Corner

    Sinclair Noe
    17 Apr 2015 | 2:30 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 279 = 17,826 SPX – 23 = 2081 NAS – 75 = 4931 10 YR YLD – .03 = 1.85% OIL – .52 = 56.19 Even though oil prices were down slightly today, oil posted a 12% gain for the past week.   The economy continues to expand and consumers are feeling better. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 95.9 in April, up from 93 in March. Separately, The Conference Board said leading indicators rose 0.2% in March; the leading economic index has been slowing over recent months but it still points to moderate expansion in economic…
  • To Be Fair

    Sinclair Noe
    16 Apr 2015 | 2:56 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 6 = 18,105 SPX – 1 = 2104 NAS – 3 = 5007 10 YR YLD – .02 = 1.88% OIL + 12 = 56.51 GOLD – 3.70 = 1198.90 SILV – .04 – 16.37   Yesterday the ECB pledged to fulfill its €1 trillion-euro bond-buying program; today Eurozone government borrowing costs slid to new lows. Germany’s 10-year yield fell almost a basis point to 0.087% in early trade, while yields on all German government debt out to January 2024 were negative. Other notable levels include France’s 30-year yield, which fell below 1%, and the yield on two-year…
  • Slow to Patch

    Sinclair Noe
    15 Apr 2015 | 3:26 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 75 = 18,112 SPX + 10 = 2106 NAS + 33 = 5011 10 YR YLD un = 1.90% OIL + 2.67 = 55.96 GOLD + 9.60 = 1202.50 SILV + .18 = 16.41   The Federal Reserve reports industrial production dropped 0.6% in March. The biggest drop since August 2012. For the first quarter, industrial production was down at 1% annual rate, the first quarterly decline since the end of the recession.   The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of home builder confidence increased to 56 in April from 52 in March. Readings over 50 indicate that more builders see…
  • Rocket Science

    Sinclair Noe
    14 Apr 2015 | 3:54 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 59 = 18,036 SPX + 3 = 2095 NAS – 10 = 4977 10 YR YLD – .04 = 1.90% OIL + 1.38 = 53.29 GOLD – 6.10 = 1192.90 SILV – .13 = 16.23 For the past 3 months, retail sales have been down. There was some speculation that the harsh winter weather was to blame for declining sales; and that appears to be true. Retail sales rose in March for the first time since late last year as consumers stepped up purchases of automobiles and other goods. Retail sales increased 0.9 percent in March. That was the largest gain since March last year and snapped three…
  • Strange Days

    Sinclair Noe
    13 Apr 2015 | 4:13 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 80 = 17,977 SPX – 9 = 2092 NAS – 7 = 4988 10 YR YLD – .02 = 1.94% OIL + .27 = 51.91 GOLD – 9.30 = 1199.00 SILV – .23 = 16.36   A down day as we head into earnings reporting season. S&P 500 earnings per share has come down 8% over the last three months to $around $117.50 from $119.50, according to analysts at Merrill Lynch. Analysts are projecting EPS to fall 4% to 6%, excluding the impact of stock buybacks. Earnings are taking a hit on two fronts: lower oil prices and a stronger dollar. The energy sector takes the lion’s…
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    iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

  • Northern Spring, Southern Chills: Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean

    iMFdirect
    17 Apr 2015 | 11:02 am
    By Alejandro Werner (Version in Español) Economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean has been cooling down for several years, and the temperature in many places is still falling. Regional growth is now expected to dip below 1 percent in 2015—down from 1.3 percent in 2014. Apart from a short-lived recession during the global financial crisis, this would be the slowest rate of growth since 2002. However, growth dynamics vary across the region, broadly along North-South lines. While spring may be in the air for Mexico, Central America, and parts of the Caribbean, the economic…
  • Oil Prices and Public Finances: A Double-Edged Sword

    iMFdirect
    15 Apr 2015 | 9:15 am
    By Benedict Clements and Marta Ruiz-Arranz (Versions in 中文, Français, 日本語, Русский, عربي and Español) Plunging oil prices have taken the public finances on an exciting ride the past six months. Oil prices have fallen about 45 percent since September (see April 2015 World Economic Outlook), putting a big dent in the revenues of oil exporters, while providing oil importers an unexpected windfall.  How has the decline in oil prices affected the public finances, and how should oil importers and exporters adjust to this new state of affairs? In the April 2015 Fiscal…
  • Measure to Measure: The Effect of Fiscal Policy on Growth and Stability

    iMFdirect
    15 Apr 2015 | 8:37 am
    By Vitor Gaspar Does fiscal policy respond systematically to economic activity? Can fiscal policy promote macroeconomic stability? Does greater stability support stronger growth? The answer is yes on all counts. This finding, while seemingly obvious, is now backed by numbers to match each question. The April 2015 Fiscal Monitor explores how. A novel approach To measure whether fiscal policy contributes to stability, the Fiscal Monitor introduces the novel concept of the fiscal stabilization coefficient (FISCO).  FISCO measures how much a country’s overall budget balance changes in response…
  • Financial Risks Rise Amid Uneven Global Economic Recovery

    iMFdirect
    15 Apr 2015 | 6:51 am
    By José Viñals (Versions in عربي and Español) The three main messages from this Global Financial Stability Report are: Risks to the global financial system have risen since October and have rotated to parts of the financial system where they are harder to assess and harder to address. Advanced economies need to enhance the traction of monetary policies to achieve their goals, while managing undesirable financial side effects of low interest rates. To withstand the global crosscurrents of lower oil prices, rising U.S. policy rates, and a stronger dollar, emerging markets must…
  • Four Forces Facing the Global Economy

    iMFdirect
    14 Apr 2015 | 6:31 am
    By Olivier Blanchard  (Versions in عربي and Español) In our April 2015 World Economic Outlook, we forecast global growth to be roughly the same this year than last year, 3.5% versus 3.4%.   This global number reflects an increase in growth in advanced economies, 2.4% versus 1.8%, offset by a decrease in growth in emerging market and developing economies, 4.3% versus 4.6% last year.   In short, to repeat the words used by the IMF Managing Director last week, we see growth as “moderate and uneven”. Behind these numbers lies an unusually complex set of forces shaping the world…
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    WordPress.com News

  • Social Media Icons Widget

    Chris
    17 Apr 2015 | 9:00 am
    Now available in a widget dashboard near you, we present the Social Media Icons Widget! No longer do you have to fiddle around with complicated HTML code to add beautiful social media icons to your blog or website. With this new widget, you can add icons for the most popular social networks in no time. The icons are linked to your social media profiles, making it easy for your readers to follow your latest status updates. The Old Way The New Way Currently, we support adding social media icons for the most popular social networks, including: Facebook Twitter Instagram Pinterest LinkedIn…
  • New Theme: Cyanotype

    Takashi Irie
    16 Apr 2015 | 9:00 am
    It’s the time of the week again, Happy Theme Thursday! We’re pleased to present a new free theme, Cyanotype: Cyanotype Cyanotype, designed by yours truly, is a monochromatic blog theme with a bold, yet simple look that sets your blog apart from the rest. Pick your favorite background color or image to lend your personal flair. Cyanotype also supports the following popular features: Custom Header, Custom Menu, Social Links, Site Logo, Featured Images, and Widgets. Read more about Cyanotype on the Theme Showcase, or activate it on your site from Appearance → Themes!Filed under:…
  • Keep Connected! Expats and Nomads Blog Around the World

    Michelle W.
    15 Apr 2015 | 9:00 am
    We don’t write blogs purely for ourselves — we write them to be read. For people who live far from family and friends, blogs serve twin readerships: they give the intrepid traveler a simultaneous way to chronicle travels for a broad audience and update those back at home. We love following the worldly adventures of these four expats and nomads, and we’re sure their friends appreciate the virtual lifeline, too! Wish I Were Here Writer J.D. Riso is a self-identified dromomaniac — a person with an uncontrollable desire to wander. Wish I Were Here is her record of…
  • Field Notes: Hispanicize 2015

    Marjorie R. Asturias
    10 Apr 2015 | 9:00 am
    Automatticians, the people who build WordPress.com, participate in events and projects around the world every day. Periodically, they report back on the exciting things they do when not in front of a computer. Two weeks ago, Happiness Engineers Karen Arnold, Marjorie R. Asturias, and Jamil Abreu, as well as Code Wrangler Damian Suarez, attended the sixth annual Hispanicize conference in downtown Miami, Florida. The event, which took place from March 16-20, is billed as the “largest annual event for Latino trendsetters and newsmakers in journalism, blogging, marketing, entertainment,…
  • New Theme: Lingonberry

    Caroline Moore
    9 Apr 2015 | 9:00 am
    It’s Theme Thursday, and we’re happy to present a brand new free theme for your enjoyment. Lingonberry Lingonberry is a bright, personable blogging theme by Anders Norén with bold colors and accents and a playful, modern twist. Formatted posts stand out from the rest, space for your site logo adds a personal touch, and footer widget areas for additional content give your posts and pages plenty of room to shine. Lingonberry also adapts to your device, for a flawless reading experience no matter the screen size. Get to know Lingonberry on the Theme Showcase, or give it a spin by…
 
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    Carl Futia

  • Guesstimates on April 17, 2015

    17 Apr 2015 | 6:01 am
    June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2080-2095. I expect a move to new highs for the current bull market but if the market spends time below 2075 it will drop to 2030 first.QQQ:  Upside target is 113. TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market is headed up to 3.00%. Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s quantitative easing program will drop the euro below 1.00 over the coming months. Near term downside target is 1.03. Resistance above the market is at 1.12.Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer…
  • Guesstimates on April 16, 2015

    16 Apr 2015 | 6:12 am
    June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2079-2097. I expect a move to new highs for the current bull market but if the market spends time below 2079 it will drop to 2030 first.QQQ:  Upside target is 113. TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market is headed up to 3.00%. Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s quantitative easing program will drop the euro below 1.00 over the coming months. Near term downside target is 1.03. Resistance above the market is at 1.12.Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer…
  • Guesstimates on April 15, 2015

    15 Apr 2015 | 6:00 am
    June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2092-2108. I expect a move to new highs for the current bull market. QQQ:  Upside target is 113. TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market is headed up to 3.00%. Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s quantitative easing program will drop the euro below 1.00 over the coming months. Near term downside target is 1.03. Resistance above the market is at 1.12.Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone. May Crude:  The longer term trend in oil…
  • Guesstimates on April 14, 2015

    14 Apr 2015 | 6:06 am
    June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2078-2093. Should the market start spending time below 2079 I will conclude that it is on its way to 2000. Unless and until that happens I will stay bullish and expect a move to new highs for the current bull market. QQQ:  Upside target is 113. TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market is headed up to 3.00%. Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s quantitative easing program will drop the euro below 1.00 over the coming months. Near term downside target is 1.03. Resistance above the market is at 1.12.Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The…
  • Guesstimates on April 13, 2015

    13 Apr 2015 | 5:54 am
    June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2083-2097. As long as the ES holds above the 2081 breakout level I will stay bullish and expect a move to new highs for the current bull market. QQQ:  Upside target is 113. TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market is headed up to 3.00%. Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s quantitative easing program will drop the euro below 1.00 over the coming months. Near term downside target is 1.03. Resistance above the market is at 1.12.Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my…
 
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    True Economics

  • 17/4/15: Conservative to a Surprising Degree: S&P Russia Ratings

    17 Apr 2015 | 11:15 am
    Two ratings agencies updated their ratings for Russia today. Here are some highlights:S&P first (Fitch later, so stay tuned):S&P kept Russia’s foreign-currency credit rating at BB+ or one step below investment grade with negative outlook. ""We are affirming our 'BB+/B' long- and short-term foreign currency ratings and our 'BBB-/A-3' long- and short-term local currency ratings on Russia".The agency claimed that Russian policy makers are struggling to boost growth and the country financial system risks are increasing due to continued external funding drought caused by the sanctions.
  • 17/4/15: Pies in the skies & Irish exports: Jan-Feb 2015

    17 Apr 2015 | 8:21 am
    Some interesting numbers on trade in goods for Ireland. As you know, I usually update these series on a quarterly basis - in part due to data volatility, in part due to lack of time. But there is something interesting afoot in the data, so here it is for the first two months of 2015 - subject to future verification of any trend.Total imports of goods stood at EUR4.563 billion in February 2015, up 11.9% year-on-year, having risen 5.1% y/y in January. This means imports over the first two months of 2015 are up 8.3% y/y. February annual rate of growth in imports was the highest in 9…
  • 16/4/15: Newsweek on Russian Economic Recovery

    16 Apr 2015 | 2:31 pm
    An interesting piece on not-so-tanking Russian economy: http://www.newsweek.com/2015/04/24/putin-was-right-be-confident-about-russias-economy-321934.htmlThe key point is the same I have been repeating throughout my earlier notes: imports substitution.The only problem is that absent investment, imports substitution is reversible. To make it sustainable, Russia needs reforms and investment. And the two are in short supply, still.
  • 15/4/15: Official Sector Exposures to Greece

    16 Apr 2015 | 5:21 am
    As Greek crisis enters a new turn of the spiral, here are full official sector exposures to Greece by country:Source: @FGoria 
  • 16/4/15: QE and Negative Rates: It's So Good, It Hurts...

    16 Apr 2015 | 12:20 am
    Here is an unedited version of my article for Manning Financial on the upcoming pain in the global markets from the Central Banks activism.With spring sunshine, the glowing warmth of the overheating bonds markets is bringing about the scent of optimism to the macro-analysts' desks. On March 19th, the NTMA issued EUR500 million worth of 6mo notes with a yield of -0.01%. With a few strokes of the 'buy' keys, the markets welcomed Ireland to the ever-expanding club of nations that enjoy the privilege of being paid to borrow from private investors.In a way, this is the story of Ireland's recovery…
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    Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

  • Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – April 08 2015

    8 Apr 2015 | 1:30 pm
    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications. The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases. The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate…
  • S&P/Case-Shiller: January 2015

    31 Mar 2015 | 11:51 am
    Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for January reported that the non-seasonally adjusted National index declined from December with prices falling 0.05% while the Composite-10 city index declined 0.01% and the Composite-20 city index declined 0.03% over the same period.On an annual basis, the National index increased 4.47% above the level seen in January 2014 while the Composite-10 city index increased 4.37% and the Composite-20 city index increased 4.56% over the same period.On a peak basis, all three indices still show significant peak declines slumping…
  • Pending Home Sales: February 2015

    30 Mar 2015 | 12:27 pm
    Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for February showing that pending home sales increased notably with the seasonally adjusted national index increasing 3.1% from January to stand 12.0% above the level seen in February 2014. The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).
  • New Residential Construction Report: February 2015

    17 Mar 2015 | 9:14 am
    Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed mixed results with total permit activity increasing 3% since January while total starts dropped a whopping 17.0% over the same period.Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, declined 6.2% from January to 620K single family units (SAAR), and rose 2.8% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005.
  • NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Sentiment: March 2015

    16 Mar 2015 | 7:33 am
    Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing that overall assessments of housing activity declined in March with the composite HMI index falling to 53 while the "buyer traffic" index declined to a level of 37 from 39 in the prior month.Overall, conditions for new home construction appear to have softened some recently and still remain below the peak assessments see prior to the Great Recession.
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    The Economic Populist

  • March CPI Shows Inflation Rising

    Robert Oak
    17 Apr 2015 | 4:30 pm
    The Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% for March, the same rate as February, as overall energy costs continued to rise.  Gasoline prices alone increased 3.9%.  Inflation without food or energy prices considered increased 0.2% for the month.  From a year ago overall inflation declined -0.1% and this is due to the previous plunge in gasoline prices.   CPI measures inflation, or price increases. Share
  • Studies show, Congress Favors the Rich

    Bud Meyers
    16 Apr 2015 | 11:50 pm
    When Hillary Clinton recently borrowed Elizabeth Warren's talking points and claimed "the deck is still stacked in favor of those at the top" (in our economic and political system) against regular working people, did she mention reforming the tax code — and then offer any solutions? The simple answer is "no"; and unless she is ever pressed by the mainstream "liberal" media, she will probably dodge this question the same way GE dodges taxes. Share
  • Industrial Production Hasn't Been This Bad Since Q2 2009

    Robert Oak
    15 Apr 2015 | 2:31 pm
    The Federal Reserve Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization report shows industrial production decreased -0.6% while January was revised downward to a -0.4% decline.  February showed a measly 0.1% increase, so overall the first quarter looks bleak  Annualized Q1 showed a -1.0% decline and such a contraction has not happened since Q2 2009. Share
  • March Retail Sales Increase 0.9% on Autos

    Robert Oak
    14 Apr 2015 | 3:48 pm
    The March 2015 Retail Sales report shows retail sales increased 0.9% for the month as auto sales had a major comeback increase of 2.8%.  Without autos & parts sales, March retail sales increased 0.4%.  Gasoline sales declined by -0.6%.  Building materials had a good month with a 2.1% sales increase.  Retail sales have now increased 1.3% from a year ago.   Retail sales are reported by dollars, not by volume with price changes removed. Share
  • The Long-term Unemployed: Lost, but not Forgotten

    Bud Meyers
    11 Apr 2015 | 4:16 pm
    According to a new report from the Department of Labor (Trends in Long-term Unemployment), people unemployed in 2014 couldn't count on a college degree to save them from long-term joblessness. The data also show it doesn't matter what industry you work in — and confirmed previous studies, that the longer you're out of work, the less likely you are to get another job. Share
 
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    Stock Trading To Go

  • STTG Market Recap Apr 17, 2015

    Mark Hanna
    17 Apr 2015 | 3:11 pm
    Friday was a bit of a curveball as overseas events impacted U.S. markets. The S&P 500 fell 1.13% and the NASDAQ 1.52%. Chinese futures sunk over news of coming government regulation to expand short-selling and limit over-the-counter margin trading. Regulators in China banned the margin trading businesses of brokerages from taking part in umbrella trusts. Investors in China have ramped... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap Apr 16, 2015

    Mark Hanna
    16 Apr 2015 | 2:58 pm
    Thursday saw choppy action in the indexes as it looked like it was going to be a typical bull market type day with morning selling met by buying - but then a late round of selling pushed things back to near break even. The S&P 500 fell 0.08% and NASDAQ 0.06% - not much too read into that. Economic news is on the back burner this week but U.S. March housing starts showed a 0.926 million... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap Apr 15, 2015

    Mark Hanna
    15 Apr 2015 | 3:15 pm
    A solid day in U.S. markets as indexes gapped up and stayed solid all day. The S&P 500 gained 0.51% and the NASDAQ 0.68%. Stocks extended gains slightly following the Federal Reserve's Beige Book noted improvements in residential real estate but reported overall moderate growth.Some key earnings for Thursday - Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, American Express, Schlumberger, UnitedHealth,... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap Apr 14, 2015

    Mark Hanna
    14 Apr 2015 | 4:00 pm
    A quick pop at the open was immediately sold but then some mild buying came in Tuesday afternoon. All in all, a quiet day as the S&P 500 gained 0.16% and the NASDAQ fell 0.22%. The NASDAQ has been really outperforming of late so this was to a degree some reversion to mean between the two indexes. In economic news retail sales showed an increase of 0.9 percent , slightly below... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap Apr 13, 2015

    Mark Hanna
    13 Apr 2015 | 2:37 pm
    U.S. indexes tried to make it four straight up days but afternoon selling put a stop to that. Nothing serious though; the S&P 500 fell 0.46% and the NASDAQ 0.15%. While most look at Alcoa's earnings as the start of earnings season it really begins this week with 36 S&P 500 companies set to report. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) report before the bell Tuesday and Intel... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
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    Peter Gallagher

  • Save PDF annotations to a notes file

    pwg
    1 Apr 2015 | 6:42 pm
    If you are a researcher then you probably annotate PDFs of papers and other stuff. If, like me, you work in the Apple/OSX environment you may be using Skim to read and annotate. Skim allows you to save the annotations in their own ‘sidecar’ file format and to copy/paste the text of the annotations. But […]
  • Draft history of ICC: final chapters

    pwg
    5 Feb 2015 | 1:45 pm
    Last year, I completed the manuscript of a centennial history of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC). It’s a long work: 400 pages, more or less. It will be only the second history of this remarkable institution. The first was published in 1938. ICC commissioned the history in 2013, but has recently decided to wait […]
  • The Wallenbergs at the ICC

    pwg
    20 Jan 2015 | 3:29 pm
    Peter Wallenberg, the scion of the great Swedish family of bankers and industrialists, died on 19 January aged 88. Among his many achievements was to lead the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) during the most difficult period for business in the late 20th Century. Here is a summary of the story. There’s a little more […]
  • Can multilateralism be revived?

    pwg
    16 Nov 2014 | 3:49 pm
    Shawn Donnan at the FT says that it needs a healthier life-style. Multilateralism is weaker than it has ever been. But, in trade, it has never been as robust as it seemed on the surface. For now, I doubt there is a reasonable prospect it can be revived in its original form. Instead, we should […]
  • Is a plurilateral the ‘way out’ for WTO on agriculture?

    pwg
    1 Oct 2014 | 2:42 pm
    Q: under what circumstances would a critical-mass (CM) plurilateral agreement on agriculture be a way “out of the mess” in the WTO agriculture negotiations? A: any CM plurilateral works as a “way out” of the WTO stalemate where it offers a degree of benefits to the members of the plurilateral agreement such that they were […]
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    Political Calculations

  • What Is Ironman's Politics?

    17 Apr 2015 | 1:07 am
    Not long ago, in an e-mail exchange with an individual who accused us of being "likely in the the top 5-10%" (which we are, definitely, wink, wink, nudge, nudge, say no more!), and therefore of being "clearly unable to understand the lives or plight of the lower 50%", into which group they placed themselves (hey - they're the ones who self-identified!) They also accused us of being "someone from the conservative side of the political spectrum". Today, we're going to clear up exactly where we fall on the political spectrum. Via John Whitehead, we've taken "The World's Smallest Political Quiz".
  • New Jobless Claims In and Out of the Oil Patch

    16 Apr 2015 | 1:06 am
    Last week, we featured a number of what we'll call "statistical equilibrium charts" showing the negative break in trend for new jobless claims in the eight states where domestic U.S. oil production has surged in recent years. These charts are really no diferent from the kind of statistical control charts that have been routinely used in modern industrial production for decades to conduct statistical hypothesis tests, but for our application, we really shouldn't use the word "control" in the name of a chart for a process that isn't controlled. Today, we're going to update that chart with the…
  • How Many Pages Does It Take To Explain the U.S. Tax Code in 2015?

    15 Apr 2015 | 1:15 am
    How many pages does it take to explain the U.S. tax code in 2015? Wolters Kluwer, the publishers of the CCH Standard Federal Tax Reporter, a leading publication for tax professionals that summarizes the administrative guidance and judicial decisions issued under each section of the U.S. tax code, has the answer, which they visualized as part of their Whole Ball of Tax for 2014: Through the 2014 tax year, the one for which people are either filing their income tax returns or are requesting extensions for on or by this 15 April 2015, it takes 74,608 pages to explain the U.S. tax code to the tax…
  • Completing the Counterfactual for QE 3.0 and 4.0

    14 Apr 2015 | 1:07 am
    Near the end of the third quarter of 2012, the U.S. economy was heading toward a mild-to-moderate recession. In response, the Federal Reserve initiated a new round of its Quantitative Easing (QE) programs, QE 3.0, in which it would purchase $40 billion worth of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) each month to try to prop up a fading U.S. housing market. Three months later, the Federal Reserve recognized that a number of very large tax hikes on both working Americans and investors would take effect on 1 January 2013, an outcome that was ensured by the re-election of President Barack Obama, which…
  • Which Dividend Futures Are Better?

    13 Apr 2015 | 1:05 am
    We have two primary sources for dividend futures data for the S&P 500: the CBOE's four quarterly dividend futures options contracts (DVMR, DVJN, DVST, DVDE) that are set to expire in the months that mark the end of each calendar quarter, whose values are based on active market trading, and IndexArb's bottoms-up estimation of the dividends per share that will be paid out between the date that a given quarter's dividend futures contract will expire and the present. That's two very different methods for estimating what dividends per share will be in the future. Which method do you suppose is…
 
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    Calafia Beach Pundit

  • 2% inflation is alive and well

    17 Apr 2015 | 10:13 am
    The prevailing inflation meme is that it is dangerously low, and for years central banks have been trying very hard—without much success—to get it to rise. The reality—at least in the U.S.—is that the underlying "core" rate of consumer inflation has been running at close to 2% for over a decade. Energy prices have been the principal cause of variations from this trend. The chart above shows the 6-mo. annualized rate of inflation according to the CPI and the Core CPI (ex-food and energy). The experience of the past decade is a great example of why it pays to ignore big swings in…
  • Why the drop in industrial production is actually good news

    15 Apr 2015 | 11:41 am
    Industrial production fell much more than expected in March (-0.6% vs. -0.3%), but the weakness was driven by good news: lower oil prices and better weather.The chart above compares industrial production in the U.S. and in the Eurozone. The U.S. has registered a staggering amount of growth in recent years, leaving the Eurozone in the dust. One piece of good news is that the Eurozone economy is now beginning to grow again after languishing for the past five years. Production in the U.S. has been soft (down 1%) for the past four months, however. Is this the beginning of another economic…
  • Ignore the recent weakness in retail sales

    14 Apr 2015 | 12:34 pm
    Retail sales in the first quarter of this year were obviously impacted by lower gasoline prices and bad weather. Both of those have faded in importance, however, so it's important to see if there has been any change in the underlying trends. As I see it, nothing much has changed. The economy continues to grow, but at a disappointingly slow pace compared to other recoveries. Many argue that this is the "new normal" and reflects durable demographic changes. I think demographics is only part of the story (they don't change dramatically from one year to the next), and the bigger story is the…
  • Federal budget deficit < 3% of GDP

    13 Apr 2015 | 4:18 pm
    For the 12 months ending March, 2015, the federal budget deficit was $510 billion, up from a post-recession low of $436 billion last November, and down by almost two thirds from its record high of $1.48 trillion just over five years ago. From the looks of things, both spending and revenues are growing about 6-7% a year. If this keeps up we're unlikely to see lower nominal deficit numbers, but the deficit is likely to shrink somewhat relative to GDP as the year progresses. The past five years were remarkable ones for federal finances: spending was relatively unchanged while revenues…
  • Business lending is booming

    10 Apr 2015 | 5:30 pm
    As the chart above shows, Commercial & Industrial Loans outstanding at U.S. banks grew at a 19% annualized pace in the first three months of this year. These loans are mostly to small and medium-sized businesses that are not able to access the capital markets directly. It's good news not because more loans mean more spending and/or more economic activity (lending doesn't create growth, but it can facilitate growth by distributing capital to people and businesses can make productive use of the money). It's good news because it reflects a significant increase in confidence on the part of…
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    Supply and Demand (in that order)

  • Update on self-employment and total employment

    3 Apr 2015 | 9:32 am
    Again the headlines (today: "below expectations") are different from the totals including self-employment. Below uses the same methodology I displayed last month.
  • Burtless: Two Economic Mistakes in One Sentence

    30 Mar 2015 | 8:10 am
    Brookings' Gary Burtless writesIt seems odd that critics of the ACA emphasize the potentially adverse impacts of the law on workers forced to accept part-time jobs but fail to notice that their logic suggests more workers in total must be employed.Dr. Burtless should have read my book, or some of the labor economics literature dealing with part-time work cited therein, to see why he has the economic logic backwards, and in fact nothing here is "odd."My revised edition (to be published by University of Chicago Press), has the clearest explanation:A conventional wisdom [e.g., Burtless quote]…
  • Accurate quotation

    25 Mar 2015 | 8:49 pm
    Today's House session. 11:11 through 12:35 from here
  • Fewer jobs in February?!

    6 Mar 2015 | 12:16 pm
    The headline payroll employment was (seasonally adjusted) higher in February than in January. However, the headline does not include the self employed or agricultural workers. If we add those in (from the household survey), the number of jobs fell from Jan to Feb. If we also look at it per capita terms, jobs per capita fell two months in a row after being essentially constant Nov-Dec.Jobs in Thousands through Feb 2015Jobs per Adult through Feb 2015To be clear, I am measuring the vast majority of jobs from the same establishment survey that makes headlines. All I'm doing is adding an estimate…
  • The War on Poverty

    27 Feb 2015 | 7:11 pm
    According to Milton FriedmanThe war on poverty of which so much has been made since then has been a very good thing indeed for many thousands of civil servants who have been able to make excellent careers and many thousands of academic people who have been able to do study after study on poverty.From Friedman on Galbraith
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Gigerenzer on logical rationality vs. ecological rationality

    Andrew
    17 Apr 2015 | 6:54 am
    I sent my post about the political implication of behavioral economics, embodied cognition, etc., to Gerd Gigerenzer, who commented as follows: The “half-empty” versus “half-full” explanation of the differences between Kahneman and us misses the essential point: the difference is about the nature of the glass of rationality, not the level of the water. For Kahneman, rationality is logical rationality, defined as some content-free law of logic or probability; for us, it is ecological rationality, loosely speaking, the match between a heuristic and its environment. For…
  • Perhaps the most contextless email I’ve ever received

    Andrew
    16 Apr 2015 | 6:52 am
    Date: February 3, 2015 at 12:55:59 PM EST Subject: Sample Stats Question From: ** Hello, I hope all is well and trust that you are having a great day so far. I hate to bother you but I have a stats question that I need help with: How can you tell which group has the best readers when they have the following information: Group A-130, 140, 170,170, 190, 200, 215, 225, 240, 250 Group B- 188, 189, 193, 193, 193, 194, 194, 195, 195, 196 Group A-mean (193), median (195), mode (170) Group B- mean (193), median(193.5), mode (193) Why? This is for my own personal use and understanding of this subkject…
  • Item-response and ideal point models

    Andrew
    15 Apr 2015 | 9:40 am
    To continue from today’s class, here’s what we’ll be discussing next time: - Estimating the direction and the magnitude of the discrimination parameters. - How to tell when your data don’t fit the model. - When does ideal-point modeling make a difference? Comparing ideal-point estimates to simple averages of survey responses. P.S. Unlike the previous post, this time I really am referring to the class we had this morning. The post Item-response and ideal point models appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • A message I just sent to my class

    Andrew
    15 Apr 2015 | 6:24 am
    I wanted to add some context to what we talked about in class today. Part of the message I was sending was that there are some stupid things that get published and you should be careful about that: don’t necessarily believe something, just cos it’s statistically significant and published in a top journal. And, sure, that’s true, I’ve seen lots of examples of bad studies that get tons of publicity. But that shouldn’t really be the #1 point you get from my class. This is how I want you to think about today’s class: Consider 3 different ways in which you will…
  • “For better or for worse, academics are fascinated by academic rankings . . .”

    Andrew
    14 Apr 2015 | 6:23 am
    I was asked to comment on a forthcoming article, “Statistical Modeling of Citation Exchange Among Statistics Journals,” by Christiano Varin, Manuela Cattelan and David Firth. Here’s what I wrote: For better or for worse, academics are fascinated by academic rankings, perhaps because most of us reached our present positions through a series of tournaments, starting with course grades and standardized tests and moving through struggles for the limited resource of publication space in top journals, peer-reviewed grant funding, and finally, the unpredictable process of citation…
 
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    TheMoneyIllusion

  • Lost in translation

    ssumner
    17 Apr 2015 | 9:00 am
    This piece in the NYT made me smile: While Mr. Bernanke will remain a full-time fellow at the Brookings Institution, the new role represents his first somewhat regular job in the private sector since stepping down as Fed chairman in January 2014. His role at Citadel was negotiated by Robert Barnett, the Washington superlawyer who also negotiated a deal for his book, “The Courage to Act,” which Mr. Bernanke recently submitted to his editor and will be published in October. Mr. Bernanke’s insights are already much in demand. At a gathering at the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas last May,…
  • Bernanke on monetary reform

    ssumner
    16 Apr 2015 | 9:52 am
    Well this is the post we’ve all been waiting for, isn’t it?  Ben Bernanke has a post discussing options for monetary reform. As you’d expect, it’s a really well thought out post—first rate.  And as you’d expect, I am still able to find a few points where I disagree.  But let’s start with the good stuff: Of course, no policy framework is without drawbacks, as attested by the difficulties the FOMC has faced in dealing with the zero lower bound on interest rates. If the Committee were to contemplate changing its framework, there are two directions it…
  • Is modern macro to blame?

    ssumner
    15 Apr 2015 | 1:51 pm
    There are some recent posts by David Andolfatto, Mark Thoma and Noah Smith, discussing whether modern macro failed us in 2008.  I don’t disagree with claims that we should not have been expected to predict the financial crisis (if these crises were predictable then they would not occur.)  Rather I’d like to approach the issue from a different perspective. When economists discuss the state of macroeconomics circa 2008, they generally take one of two positions: 1.  Macro is fine, it’s not our fault. 2.  Macro screwed up because they didn’t pay enough attention to…
  • The ECB has expected AD growth right where it wants it

    ssumner
    13 Apr 2015 | 10:10 am
    Vaidas Urba sent me the latest ECB report: The March 2015 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area foresaw annual HICP inflation at 0.0% in 2015, 1.5% in 2016 and 1.8% in 2017. In comparison with the Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections published in December 2014, the inflation projection for 2015 had been revised downwards, mainly reflecting the past fall in oil prices. In contrast, the inflation projection for 2016 had been revised slightly upwards, also reflecting the expected impact of recent monetary policy measures. As regards measures of longer-term inflation…
  • Monetary policy is not about banking

    ssumner
    12 Apr 2015 | 8:33 am
    When I advocate something like QE or negative interest on reserves, I often get people complaining that this will not boost bank lending, or that we shouldn’t even be trying to boost bank lending.  It almost makes me want to tear out my hair. What in the world does banking have to do with monetary policy?  Yes, it may or may not boost bank lending, but it doesn’t matter, as monetary policy is about the hot potato effect.  And yes, the Fed should not be trying to boost lending, any more than it should try to boost sales of microwave ovens.  NGDP is what matters. Jim Glass…
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    Jesse's Café Américain

  • Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - The New York - London Gold Pool

    17 Apr 2015 | 1:21 pm
    Gold and silver ended the week pretty much revolving around the same trading ranges. I might say that gold is coiling for a move, but I really don't quite feel it in the charts or the action on the tape. The pricing on the Comex is being run like a bucket shop, so using finely tuned technical indicators is probably fruitless. At some point this gold pool will break down. When that will be I
  • SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - China Bubble and the Canard That Is 'Say's Law'

    17 Apr 2015 | 1:18 pm
    Stocks gave up about half of the drifting higher advance of the prior nine days. China took actions to dampen the very obvious equity bubble in their markets. Their dilemma is the same as most areas: they wish to stimulate growth, without creating dangerous asset bubbles. Almost everyone is failing at this, because the plutocrats and oligarchs keep stimulating through the
  • Elizabeth Warren: The Unfinished Business of Financial Reform

    16 Apr 2015 | 7:01 pm
    If Elizabeth Warren were running for President, serious financial reform would be a key part of the national debate and her agenda.  The same can be said of Bernie Sanders. Hillary may talk the talk but I am afraid that she, like the Republicans, are bought and paid for by the moneyed interests.   They are creatures of the system, caught in a credibility trap of deep
  • Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Stanley Sees a Rebound Coming, Tax Revenue Is Obsolete

    16 Apr 2015 | 2:07 pm
    "It [Nixon closing the gold window on a Sunday evening in 1971] was one of the most dramatic economic events ever, a very big deal and I was at the epicentre of it on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange… He [Nixon] was spinning political speak, but what he was saying was that the U.S. has defaulted on its debts. And it got me thinking about what
  • SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Looting Will Continue Until Exhaustion or Collapse

    16 Apr 2015 | 1:32 pm
    I imagine you did not hear too much today about the much larger than expected number of new unemployment claims. Today the Street was celebrating the IPOs of Party City, Etsy, and the highly ironically named 'Virtu.' Etsy reminds one of the internet boom stocks, sans gerbil cannons.  That it opened for trade at nearly twice the IPO price of $16.  It is a 'story' stock with no profit
 
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    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • Note on Laffer curves

    chris
    17 Apr 2015 | 6:05 am
    Tim and Richard have been having an argument about Laffer curves. Here, in no particular order, are my notes on the matter. 1. There are (at least) two Laffer curves - one that relates top tax rates to GDP, and on that relates them to tax revenues. The two probably do not coincide. For example, if a top earner responds to higher taxes by continuing to work but by dodging tax, GDP is unaffected but revenues fall. For this reason, the revenue-maximizing top rate is probably lower than the GDP-maximizing rate. To this extent, Richard is right to stress the importance of tax dodging. As Alan…
  • Forecasting vs explaining

    chris
    16 Apr 2015 | 7:14 am
    There's a big difference between forecasting and explaining. This is one point which I fear is being under-emphasized in the culture war about the state of macroeconomics. Critics often infer that the discipline failed because it didn't foresee the crisis. It's certainly the case that few people saw the crisis coming. For example, only one forecaster of those surveyed by the Treasury in March 2008 foresaw a fall in GDP in 2009 - and he had also, wrongly, forecast weak growth in 2005 and 2006. UK economists weren't alone here: US forecasters also failed to see the recession…
  • The problem with promises

    chris
    14 Apr 2015 | 6:16 am
    "He who fights with monsters should be careful lest he thereby become a monster." Labour's manifesto reminded me of these famous words of Friedrich Nietzsche. It begins thus: A Labour government will cut the deficit every year. The first line of Labour’s first Budget will be: “This Budget cuts the deficit every year.” This is, of course, silly. It amounts to a promise to tighten fiscal policy even if the economy weakens. The statement could be rewritten: "if a recession occurs, we'll make it worse." Granted, few people expect a recession in the next five…
  • A positive Conservative agenda

    chris
    10 Apr 2015 | 5:59 am
    The anti-Miliband campaign seems to have backfired: it's created an image of someone who is both weak and ruthless and a nerd and a shagger - which betokens a certain confusion. Some on the left, though, believe the Tories have had no option but to use such negative campaigning. Phil says: When your coming manifesto promises little more than demented and unnecessary cuts, a possible EU exit, and precious little else the Tories have already lost the politics. This poses the question: what might a more positive Tory platform look like? If I were Cameron, I'd stress three elements.
  • Happiness policy, & growth

    chris
    9 Apr 2015 | 5:05 am
    There's a lot that we've not seen so far in this election campaign. One of the many absences has been any discussion of happiness policy. This is odd, given that back in 2006 Mr Cameron said: Improving our society's sense of well-being is, I believe, the central political challenge of our times. You might that the financial crisis overturned this belief. Perhaps it shouldn't have, because well-being might be one solution to slow growth. Some new research claims: Average local happiness is positively correlated with both R&D intensity and firm investment after controlling…
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    David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

  • On austerity, take economists with a pinch of salt

    David Smith
    12 Apr 2015 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Should you listen to economists during this election campaign? I say that in the full knowledge that it may encourage some to stop reading now, and...
  • The economy's doing better - have voter memories of past chaos faded too?

    David Smith
    5 Apr 2015 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. A landmark has been passed, and sooner than expected. Living standards, measured in the conventional way, are higher than they were than the coalition took office,...
  • IEA's shadow MPC votes 7-2 to hold rates

    David Smith
    5 Apr 2015 | 1:59 am
    Continuing its recent trend, the Shadow MPC has voted to keep rates on hold in April. There was a variety of reasons offered for holding. Some members felt the economy remained weak. Others felt that the economy was going well...
  • Don't forget asset prices. Cutting rates is not the right response to zero inflation

    David Smith
    29 Mar 2015 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. A big fat zero. No inflation at all. Though it is not guaranteed, a run of deflation – prices lower than a year earlier – seems...
  • No roller coaster - but the tail wagged the dog in a curious budget

    David Smith
    22 Mar 2015 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. This is a strange world, and we have just had a rather strange budget. There was some jam today, though it was spread pretty thinly. There...
 
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    Project Syndicate RSS-Feed

  • The Least We Can Do For Syria

    Lakhdar Brahimi
    17 Apr 2015 | 10:20 am
    In a conflict as bitter, protracted, and complex as the war in Syria, it is all too easy to become overwhelmed by despair. And yet, however grim or upsetting the situation becomes, people around the world, rather than tuning out the war, should pressure their governments to protect and shelter Syria's refugees.
  • What the West Owes Ukraine

    Anders Åslund
    17 Apr 2015 | 9:49 am
    Ukraine may not be grabbing as many headlines now as it did a year ago, but the crisis there is far from over. Ultimately, what Ukraine needs is to escape the old Soviet order – and, for that, it needs significantly more Western help than it is getting.
  • ExxonMobil’s Dangerous Business Strategy

    Jeffrey D. Sachs
    17 Apr 2015 | 9:00 am
    This week, the National Petroleum Council’s Arctic Committee, chaired by the CEO of ExxonMobil, released a report calling on the US government to proceed with Arctic drilling for oil and gas, without mentioning climate change. This is just the latest reminder of the threat that ExxonMobil’s business model poses to the world.
  • The Debt Dilemma

    Adair Turner, et al.
    17 Apr 2015 | 8:30 am
    The victory of the anti-austerity Syriza party in Greece’s February election has placed debt back at the center of debates about economic growth and stability. But Greece is hardly the only country that is struggling to repay its existing debt, much less dampen borrowing – and the risks are mounting.
  • Can Trade Agreements Stop Currency Manipulation?

    Kemal Derviş
    17 Apr 2015 | 6:00 am
    It is impossible to deny that trade and exchange rates are closely linked. But trade negotiations are not the right forum for discussing the causes and consequences of current-account imbalances and reaching agreements on macroeconomic-policy coordination; that is what the IMF and the G-20 are for.
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    OilPrice.com Daily News Update

  • Total U.S. Rig Count Drop Over 50%

    ZeroHedge
    17 Apr 2015 | 12:25 pm
    Rig counts fell for a record 19th week in a row. Total rigs dropped 34 to 954 and oil rigs dropped 26 to 374. This means the total rig count drop is now greater than 50% - the fastest drop since 1986. Crude prices had slid into the rig count announcement and popped afterwards.Related: The Latest Media Attempts To Suppress Oil PricesThis is a record 19th week of consecutive rig count declines...Related: Is Saudi Arabia Setting The World Up For Major Oil Price Spike?Leaving the total rig count decline now over 50% - the most since 1986...Related: The…
  • This Week In Energy: Oil Markets May Finally Be Adjusting

    Evan Kelly
    17 Apr 2015 | 10:32 am
    The oil price rally is finally underway. This week saw both WTI and Brent hit their highest levels in all of 2015 thus far. WTI closed on April 16 above $56 per barrel and Brent extended its lead into the $60s, settling above $63 per barrel. Through all the fits and starts over the past few months, the gains this time around appear to be more justified. That is because the markets are finally adjusting. U.S. oil production is poised to post a monthly decline of 57,000 barrels per day in May as the main shale regions in North Dakota and Texas feel…
  • The Latest Media Attempts To Suppress Oil Prices

    Leonard Brecken
    17 Apr 2015 | 10:10 am
    It started with the Iranian supply overhang and has grown louder by the day in the media. While we were all supposed to be cowering in fear at the 1MB/D that would be coming from Iran any day, it emerged instead that not only is the deal in doubt, as the only real agreement was to agree to say there was an agreement, but any such additional supply won’t occur imminently. Far from it. That sanctions will only be lifted through intensive verification is now the reality and this process will take time. And even that isn’t fully agreed…
  • These Major Players Could Make Or Break The EV Market

    Maria Ramos
    17 Apr 2015 | 9:41 am
    For decades, drivers have wistfully dreamed of weaning themselves from using environmentally unfriendly and unpredictably priced gasoline. Like most dreams, this appeared to be unrealistic and unlikely to transpire in the real world. However, recent developments in electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to make these cars affordable to regular individuals, cutting back on gasoline consumption and the consequent air pollution associated with this form of energy use. EV Manufacturer Tesla Motors, headed by PayPal co-founder Elon Musk, shipped…
  • Here's A New $1 Billion Funding Source For Mining Projects

    Dave Forest
    17 Apr 2015 | 7:54 am
    Finding project funds is becoming a bigger and bigger issue in the resource space. But developers in the mining sector just got some good news on an innovative new source of capital. That’s the Capital Mines Hydrocarbures fund. A C$1 billion purse being put forward by the government of one of the world’s top mining jurisdictions—the Canadian province of Quebec. Quebec’s Economy Minister said last week that the fund is now close to being ready to launch. With C$200 million already put aside—and another C$800 million…
 
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    zentrader.ca

  • An Option Trader’s Perspective Of Diabetes

    chris
    16 Apr 2015 | 3:00 pm
    By Chris Ebert Note: this article contains only the opinion and conjecture of the author and is not medical advice. The Hurdles for Diabetics The problem for the diabetic is often not that the disease is entirely incurable; indeed there are many well-documented cases of folks reversing and eliminating the symptoms of diabetes as well as halting the progression of the disease in its tracks. Rather, the problem for many is that the path to the cure has either not been revealed to them personally, or else the path is too difficult. While no single cure can be expected to work for everybody,…
  • Netflix By The Numbers

    jeff pierce
    16 Apr 2015 | 8:36 am
    Netflix Inc. – Earnings Surprise | FindTheCompany See more details | SoftwareInsider Netflix vs. Social Media by User See more details | SoftwareInsider
  • 5 Effective Ways to Settle Credit Card Debt

    jeff pierce
    16 Apr 2015 | 8:36 am
    Settling credit card debt can give you nightmares. This is because creditors are often very impatient. However, there is good news for you. There are several strategies that you can apply and get out of debt. The following are five ways that can help you settle your credit card bills: 1. Conduct negotiations with your creditors Credit card charges can sometimes escalate. It can do so very fast, such that you will find it impossible to pay the debt on time. When you reschedule your payment to a later date, interest rates will increase. The best way to handle this issue is to visit your…
  • Major Bottom Forming On Gold?

    jeff pierce
    15 Apr 2015 | 2:15 pm
    By Poly This is an excerpt from this weekend’s premium update from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly. Now offering monthly & quarterly subscriptions with 30 day refund. Promo code ZEN saves 10%. Before diving into Gold’s technicals and recent trading patterns, I’d like to reiterate that I believe Gold is in the process of completing a wide, bear market bottoming process. I’ve mentioned before my belief that Gold double bottomed in December…
  • Things to be Careful of when looking for Debt Settlement Companies

    jeff pierce
    13 Apr 2015 | 7:52 pm
    By Charlie Brown In case, you are indebted to a bank or credit card Company and you have no capability to return them the entire amount, it is time you start thinking hard. Nowadays, debt settlement companies agree to help you reduce your debt for a very little amount of money on the lump sum you spent. Companies that Settle Debts ? Companies that offer debt settlement services generally provide help in lieu of charges. They are not non-profit organizations. These organizations negotiate with the creditor company, so that you can resolve your debt and reach a settlement. ? Settlement…
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    Economy Watch

  • The UK's Cameron Attacks Bureaucracy, and Irony Ensues

    The Conversation
    17 Apr 2015 | 1:15 pm
    red_tape.jpg Home Page News Page Five years ago, a fresh-faced leader of the opposition stood on the stage at a TED conference in London speaking to a gathering of technologists and entrepreneurs. His promise was to deliver the next age of government. David Cameron’s talk did not feature the words “austerity”, “immigration”, or “long-term economic plan”, but instead an optimistic vision of family, community, and smarter digital governance built on a technological revolution. <p>Five years ago, a fresh-faced leader of the opposition stood on…
  • Only a Few of the Technology Giants Seem to be in Control of Online Music

    The Conversation
    17 Apr 2015 | 12:45 pm
    online_music.jpg Home Page News Page Digital music downloads and online streaming sales have now overtaken sales of CDs and records for the first time, underscoring just how fundamentally the internet has changed the way we consume. <p>Digital music downloads and online streaming sales have now&nbsp;<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/mediatechnologyandtelecoms/11535355/Digital-music-revenues-overtake-physical-sales-for-the-first-time.html"><strong>overtaken</strong></a>&nbsp;sales of CDs and records for the first…
  • When Labor Strikes Occur, Nobody Wins

    Kurt Cavano
    17 Apr 2015 | 11:04 am
    labor_union.jpg Home Page News Page With news swirling of the footwear factory strike in Vietnam over the past few weeks it begs the question: Who is ultimately hurt when workers go on strike? The answer: Everyone. <p>With news swirling of the footwear factory strike in Vietnam over the past few weeks it begs the question: Who is ultimately hurt when workers go on strike? The answer: Everyone.</p> With news swirling of the footwear factory strike in Vietnam over the past few weeks it begs the question: Who is ultimately hurt when workers go on strike? The answer: Everyone. See…
  • Indonesia Strives to Reach its Economic Potential

    East Asia Forum
    17 Apr 2015 | 10:24 am
    jakarta.jpg Home Page News Page Indonesia has come a long way since former president Suharto adopted a new economic stabilisation policy in 1996. However, the country must take steps to improve infrastructure and enhance data measurement if it is to realise its economic potential. <p>Indonesia has come a long way since former president Suharto adopted a new economic stabilisation policy in 1996. However, the country must take steps to improve infrastructure and enhance data measurement if it is to realise its economic potential.</p> Indonesia has come a long way since former…
  • The Trade Policy View from Modi's India

    East Asia Forum
    17 Apr 2015 | 10:01 am
    international_trade.jpg Home Page News Page The Foreign Trade Policy of the Modi government, announced by trade minister Nirmala Sitharaman in early April, represents business as usual. It aims at only incremental change rather than the bold new beginning that is needed if India is to ‘assume a position of leadership in the international trade discourse’. <p>The Foreign Trade Policy of the Modi government, announced by trade minister Nirmala Sitharaman in early April, represents business as usual. It aims at only incremental change rather than the bold new beginning that is…
 
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    Central Bank News

  • Chile maintains rate, still keeping eye on high inflation

    centralbanknews.info
    16 Apr 2015 | 2:23 pm
        Chile's central bank maintained its monetary policy rate at 3.0 percent, as expected, and said inflation remains high and it "will continue to monitor developments with particular attention."    The Central Bank of Chile, which has kept rates steady this year after cutting them by 150 basis points last year to stimulate economic activity, acknowledged that total inflation in March turned out to be lower than expected but not the underlying inflation rate.    Chile's consumer price inflation rate eased to 4.2 percent in March from 4.4 percent in February while…
  • Sri Lanka cuts rate 50 bps, to continue easy stance

    centralbanknews.info
    16 Apr 2015 | 2:00 pm
        Sri Lanka's central bank cut its main policy rates by 50 basis points, a surprise to financial markets,  and said a "relaxed monetary policy stance will also be pursued in months to come until concerns over inconsistent behavior of market interest rates are addressed sufficiently to facility the economic growth further in a  low single digit inflation environment."    The Central Bank of Sri Lanka, which had maintained rates since a cut in October 2013, said inflation is projected to remain in low mid-single digit levels this year but the current market…
  • Poland maintains rate, sees continued deflation

    centralbanknews.info
    15 Apr 2015 | 10:39 am
        Poland's central bank maintained its monetary policy reference rate at 1.50 percent, as expected, saying deflation will continue in coming quarters due to the sharp fall in commodity prices but stable economic growth, low interest rates, a good situation in the labor market and an expected recovery in the euro area should limit the risk of inflation remaining below target in the medium term.    The National Bank of Poland (NBP), which said it was concluding its monetary easing cycle when it cut the policy rate by 50 basis points last month, added that there was no…
  • Canada holds rate, risks to inflation roughly balanced

    centralbanknews.info
    15 Apr 2015 | 10:08 am
        Canada's central bank maintained its target for the overnight rate at 0.75 percent, as widely expected, saying the "risks to the outlook for inflation are now roughly balanced," a slight chance in wording from last month when it said the risks around inflation were "more balanced" following the surprise 25 basis points rate cut in January.    The Bank of Canada (BOC) said the negative impact of the decline in oil prices on economic activity was now appearing even sooner than it expected in January though looking at the next two years the overall drag on the economy…
  • ECB maintains rates, lower euro FX helps ease risks

    centralbanknews.info
    15 Apr 2015 | 7:12 am
        The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its key interest rates, including the benchmark refinancing rate at 0.05 percent and a negative deposit rate of minus 0.20 percent, and said data to March continued to point toward further positive economic momentum since the end of last year.    The ECB, which embarked on full-blown quantitative easing on March 9 by starting its monthly purchases of 60 billion euros, added that the risks surrounding the economic outlook remain on the downside but had become more balanced due to its monetary policy, "the fall in oil prices and…
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    Business Insider

  • Intense Yemen bombing, Qaeda attack after UN peace call

    Jamal al-Jabiri with Robert MacPherson in Washington
    17 Apr 2015 | 7:20 pm
    Sanaa (AFP) - UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon called for international action to end the Saudi-led air campaign on Huthi rebels as intense bombing hit Yemen again Friday and Al-Qaeda seized more ground in the chaos.Columns of smoke rose over an arms depot targeted by warplanes east of the capital Sanaa, witnesses said.The facility belonged to the elite Republican Guard, which remains loyal to former president Ali Abdullah Saleh.Renegade troops loyal to Saleh are allied with the Huthi rebels, whose sweeping advance forced President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi to flee to Riyadh last…
  • UN says 'differences' emerge in Libya peace talks

    17 Apr 2015 | 7:09 pm
    Skhirat (Morocco) (AFP) - The UN said it was trying to narrow differences between Libya's rival parliaments over an agreement aimed at forming a unity government to end unrest tearing the country apart, as fresh fighting broke out near the capital Tripoli.The differences emerged in written observations by the two sides on the agreement envoy Bernardino Leon is trying to clinch, said Samir Ghattas, spokesman for the UN mission in Libya (UNSMIL)."We have received the text from the parties on their remarks. There are differences that we are working to narrow," he said in statement texted to…
  • The 'Batman V Superman' trailer hints at a major villain

    Kirsten Acuna
    17 Apr 2015 | 6:44 pm
    "Batman V Superman" director Zack Snyder revealed the official teaser trailer for the film late Friday afternoon. Eagle-eyed fans watching the trailer may have noticed a familiar symbol hinting at a very popular Batman villain hiding in plain site. At the 1:20 mark, while the focus is on the Batman over to the right of the screen, pay attention to the column on the left and you'll notice a question mark. Batfans instantly recognize that as a possible nod to one of the Dark Knight's biggest foes, the Riddler, who is known for leaving around question marks with riddles for the super sleuth to…
  • Terror arrests in Australia over planned ANZAC Day attack

    Martin PARRY
    17 Apr 2015 | 6:38 pm
    Sydney (AFP) - Five men were arrested in Australia on Saturday with two of them allegedly planning a terrorist attack on a ceremony commemorating ANZAC soldiers who have fought and died for their country.Seven search warrants were executed in Melbourne by a joint counter-terrorism team, two months after Prime Minister Tony Abbott warned the threat from home-grown extremists was worsening.Police said two 18-year-olds were held over terrorism-related offences."It is alleged both men were undertaking preparations for planning terrorist acts in Melbourne, which included targeting police…
  • 11 super successful tech leaders who struggled when they first arrived to America

    Eugene Kim
    17 Apr 2015 | 5:51 pm
    More than a third of the top tech companies in the US were founded by people born outside of the country. Their success stories drive many immigrants to come to the US in hopes of realizing the American Dream. But just looking at their success makes it easy to overlook the fact that a lot of the immigrant founders had to overcome other problems – from language barriers to financial constraints – to achieve their extraordinary success.Sergey Brin had a very 'difficult first year' in the US Google cofounder Sergey Brin was just 6 years old when his family emigrated from the Soviet Union to…
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    Business + Economy – Articles – The Conversation

  • Shift to online music underscores power of a handful of tech giants

    Joeri Mol, Senior Lecturer in Organisation Studies &amp; Co-Director of Cluster for the study of Organisation Society and Markets (COSM) at University of Melbourne
    16 Apr 2015 | 6:22 pm
    They came in like a wrecking ball... online firms like YouTube, Spotify and Apple have fundamentally changed the way we consume. But whose rights are protected? AAP Image/Julian SmithDigital music downloads and online streaming sales have now overtaken sales of CDs and records for the first time, underscoring just how fundamentally the internet has changed the way we consume. The UK-based trade group the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry has reported that global market revenue from digital music sales represented 46% of all sales last year, coming to $US6.85 billion. By…
  • What Jeremy Clarkson taught us about incivility in the workplace

    Simon Burgess, Lecturer in Management (Business Ethics, Professional Ethics, and Corporate Social Responsibility) at University of New England
    16 Apr 2015 | 5:17 pm
    Before the biff: James May, Jeremy Clarkson and Richard Hammond during the filming of a 'Top Gear' episode AAP/EPA/Andy RainThe BBC had little choice: they could hardly renew Jeremy Clarkson’s contract after he’d biffed a producer into the emergency department. The BBC’s internal investigation reveals that the hapless producer, Oisin Tymon, suffered a swollen and bloodied lip due to “a physical altercation accompanied by sustained and prolonged verbal abuse of an extreme nature”. As far as workplace incivility goes, the incident was clearly on the serious side, and it is…
  • China's growing labour movement offers hope for workers globally

    Tom Barnes, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Institute for Religion, Politics and Society at Australian Catholic University
    16 Apr 2015 | 1:25 pm
    Chinese workers are often aided by NGOs and usually receive little to no help from the main Chinese trade union. EPA/ALEX HOFFORDThe growing labour movement in China, as fragmented and repressed as it is, offers hope for workers everywhere as an example of organising and protecting themselves against incredible odds. Independent labour organising and independent trade unions are banned and workers do not have the legal right to strike. But millions of workers have organised autonomously and staged “wildcat”, or unofficial, strikes, with the main union charged with representing Chinese…
  • Explainer: COAG and the 'GST carve-up'

    John Freebairn, Professor, Department of Economics at University of Melbourne
    16 Apr 2015 | 1:25 pm
    COAG meets to discuss the allocation of GST. Flickr/Matt Stewart, CC BYPremiers, territory leaders and the federal government are meeting at the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) today in Canberra and high on the agenda is the re-distribution of GST revenues, particularly to Western Australia, which is facing a reduction in its allocation. COAG will discuss the “GST carve-up” - that is, the proportion of GST allocated to individual states and territories. The GST is collected by the Commonwealth and then redistributed. The share of the GST sum allocated to each state is designed to…
  • East-West Link shows miserable failure of planning process

    Graeme Hodge, Professor, Monash Centre for Commercial Law and Regulatory Studies, Faculty of Law at Monash University
    16 Apr 2015 | 1:25 pm
    Taxpayers are the ultimate losers when governments fail to manage expensive infrastructure projects. AAP/Joe CastroTwo cheers for resolving the East-West toll road project mess. The agreement reached by the Andrews Government in Victoria to pay the consortium $339 million for its bid costs and early work is unprecedented, but also honourable and transparent. It was always going to involve considerable pain on all sides, because it was created by Labor, by the Coalition and by the consortium in the first place. But what a tangled government-business ‘partnership’! Signed contract deals, a…
 
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    SurvivalBlog.com

  • Notes for Friday – April 17, 2015

    Hugh James Latimer
    16 Apr 2015 | 11:31 pm
    On April 17, 1961, about 1,500 CIA-trained Cuban exiles launched the disastrous Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba in a failed attempt to overthrow the government of Fidel Castro. Due to the Cuba/Soviet intelligence network as well as loose talk by members of the brigade, which was repeated in U.S. and foreign newspaper reports, the Cuban government knew, in advance, of the planned invasion. The Washington Post also reported that the Soviets knew the exact date of the attack, that the CIA was aware that they knew, and that the CIA did not inform president Kennedy. o o o Today, we present another…
  • The Power of Steam – Part 4, by A.Y.

    Hugh James Latimer
    16 Apr 2015 | 11:31 pm
    For problems on the engine itself, visual inspections are again the best way to look for problems. Loose bolts, loose or worn bearings, signs of overheating, and clanking and knocking sounds can attest to problems. Signs of overheated metal on the engine can include scarring, discoloration, scraping sounds, and emitting lots of heat from a bearing while in operation. Overheating on the engine itself can usually be attributed to not enough lubrication, so it must be determined why oil and grease are not getting to the affected part. Some engines have mechanical and hydrostatic lubricators that…
  • Letter Re: LE Criticism

    Hugh James Latimer
    16 Apr 2015 | 11:30 pm
    HJL, I believe there are a few points being lost in the ongoing debate concerning law enforcement’s attitude towards their job and the public. Time and time again the blanket statement levied in support of law enforcement’s defense is “ Not all cops are bad”. I agree with this wholeheartedly, and I think any sane person would also agree with this. However, as a person who exercises critical thinking, I have to wonder, where are the “good cops”? Where are the whistleblowers? Good cops don’t allow flagrant abuse of police powers, good cops don’t blindly follow, Good cops…
  • Economics and Investing:

    Hugh James Latimer
    16 Apr 2015 | 11:30 pm
    How many more working persons can you fit into a household until the entire family cannot afford anything? o o o Is Saudi Arabia Setting The World Up For Major Oil Price Spike? o o o Items from Mr. Econocobas: Japan Now Holds More U.S. Debt than China – The trend here is interesting… Bets Are Off on ‘Grexit’ as Default Fears Grow Fed’s Fischer Says Fed Can’t Be “On Hold For Ever”, Spooks Bonds & Bullion
  • Odds ‘n Sods:

    Hugh James Latimer
    16 Apr 2015 | 11:29 pm
    Leaked Document From Mayor to Police: Your Paycheck Depends on How Many Tickets You Write. – H.L. o o o ISIS-trained man arrested in U.S., DOJ says. – D.S. o o o California’s Green Drought. How bad policies are compounding the state’s water shortage. – T.P. o o o Judge opens door for cops to storm your home. – D.S. o o o I’ve been reading John Mosby’s blog for a bit now and have watched with interest as he has joined with Forward Observer Magazine. Their focus is Intelligence and they have some very good articles. I think SurvivalBlog readers might like…
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    Trading Heroes

  • Traders Gym Free Backtesting Software – Does It Beat Forex Tester 2?

    Hugh Kimura
    24 Mar 2015 | 9:26 pm
    I was really excited when I found out that Trade Interceptor's free backtesting software was finally available. Find out what I think of it and if it can really replace Forex Tester 2. The post Traders Gym Free Backtesting Software – Does It Beat Forex Tester 2? appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • How To Download Historical Forex Data For The Timeframe You Need

    Hugh Kimura
    3 Mar 2015 | 7:13 pm
    Sometimes you are looking for data for a particular timeframe and you cannot find it. For example, maybe you want 4 hour data, but all you can find is 1 minute data. This post will show you how to convert that data easily and quickly. The post How To Download Historical Forex Data For The Timeframe You Need appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • TTL020 – How Austin Netzley “Retired” At 27 With One Trading System

    Hugh Kimura
    24 Feb 2015 | 12:29 am
    Austin Netzley was able to retire from his day job at the age of 27. He did it by building an automated trading system that allowed him to effectively remove himself from the trading process and pursue other passions. Find out how he did it and the mistakes he made along the way. The post TTL020 – How Austin Netzley “Retired” At 27 With One Trading System appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • How To Use The RSI Indicator In Forex Trading

    Hugh Kimura
    17 Feb 2015 | 4:22 am
    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the most well-known and widely available indicators in trading. Even if you have heard of it before, you may not know how it works or the different ways that you can use it to trade. This post get into the details and show you different ways that you can use it. The post How To Use The RSI Indicator In Forex Trading appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • Forex Patterns And Probabilities Is One Of Those Books

    Hugh Kimura
    10 Feb 2015 | 6:18 am
    If you are tired of trading books that only give you part of a trading method in order to sell you a more expensive course, then this book could be for you. This post will share what I liked about this book, what I skipped over and how not to go from trader to high school teacher. The post Forex Patterns And Probabilities Is One Of Those Books appeared first on Trading Heroes.
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    OpenMarkets

  • Market Update: Volatility Showing in Earnings

    OpenMarkets
    15 Apr 2015 | 3:17 pm
      The market has been volatile the last few months, and it doesn’t matter which market you’re talking about. That kind of environment keeps some people on the sidelines, while some companies trade for a living. Jack explains how that’s impacting earnings for financial firms.
  • MARKET UPDATE: BIG WEEK AHEAD

    OpenMarkets
    13 Apr 2015 | 2:40 pm
      There’s a big week ahead of us with congress returning from their recess and important numbers coming out like Retail Sales and PPI.  Also this week, a big bulk of the banks will be reporting earnings and Jack says as go the financials, will go this quarter.   Jack also urges viewers to pay attention to guidance that comes out of the banks.
  • Monday Outlook: Housing Data

    OpenMarkets
    13 Apr 2015 | 10:03 am
      March housing data is released Thursday, and the Fed’s Beige Book release Wednesday highlight the economic week ahead.  See what’s on the calendar, and what stories you should be reading in our links below.   Economic Calendar Monday: Treasury Budget 2:00 PM ET Tuesday: Crop Progress 4:00 PM ET Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota speech 8:00 PM ET   Wednesday: Federal Reserve Beige Book 2:00 PM ET St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard speech 9:00 AM ET Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker speech 7:30 PM ET…
  • MARKET UPDATE: EARNINGS SEASON

    OpenMarkets
    10 Apr 2015 | 2:07 pm
    Yesterday was the unofficial kick-off to earnings season – the time we’ve all been waiting for.  Jack states that much of the earnings growth we’ve seen over the last few years has been directly related to the energy patch, so we are expecting a softness there.  Next week continues to be all about earnings and will likely set the tone for the rest of the quarter.
  • Q&A with OzU Invest, Winners of the 2015 CME Group Trading Challenge

    Evan Peterson
    10 Apr 2015 | 9:26 am
    Back in the 2000s, one of Turkey’s most successful businessmen, billionaire Hüsnü Özyeğin, saw some of the economic challenges in his country, and decided to confront them by expanding educational opportunities for Turkish youth. One of his most notable efforts was the establishment of a university that bears his name. Özyeğin University has since become one of the top universities in the region with programs in everything from law to aviation. But its most recognized focus might be the school’s connection to business, finance and banking, where Özyeğin made his fortune. Last…
 
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    azizonomics

  • How To Euthanize Rentiers (Wonkish)

    Aziz
    16 Apr 2015 | 6:05 am
    In my last post, I established that the “rentier’s share” of interest — resulting from as Keynes put it the “power of the capitalist to exploit the scarcity-value of capital” — can be calculated as the real-interest rate on lending to the monetary sovereign, typically known as the real risk free interest rate. That is because it is the rate that is left over after deducting for credit risk and inflation risk. However, I have been convinced that my conclusion — that euthanizing rentiers should be an objective of monetary policy — is either wrong or…
  • The Subtle Tyranny of Interest Rates

    Aziz
    15 Apr 2015 | 3:50 pm
    Interest rates are the price of credit. They are the price of access to capital. Now, it is obvious that pricing credit is not tyrannical in and of itself. Interest compensates a lender for default risk and the risk of inflation eroding the purchasing power of the money that they lend. The tyranny I am getting at is subtle. It is the tyranny that Keynes pointed to when he proposed a euthanasia of the rentier. Keynes proposed that low interest rates would: mean the euthanasia of the rentier, and, consequently, the euthanasia of the cumulative oppressive power of the capitalist to exploit the…
  • What The UK’s Low Productivity Is Really Telling Us

    Aziz
    14 Apr 2015 | 10:17 am
    This, I would argue, is one of the scariest charts in the world today. The green line is output per hour worked, and the dotted green line is the pre-crisis trend: It’s what the Bank of England calls the “UK productivity puzzle.” As the BBC’s Linda Yueh notes: “output per hour is around 16 percentage points lower than it should be if productivity had grown at its pre-crisis pace.” I don’t think it should be called a “productivity puzzle”. That would imply that we don’t really understand the phenomenon. That the phenomenon is a…
  • On the Race to Mars and the Economics of Colonizing Space

    Aziz
    20 Feb 2015 | 10:47 am
    It is at least a little exciting to see that NASA wants to put a human on an asteroid by 2025 and on Mars by 2030. Why not very exciting? Because NASA — unlike with the Moon — is not on track to be the first one there. Yes, governments — the largest of which are capable of borrowing, spending and taxing trillions — still have the most economic power of any agency at their disposal. Yet if their plans for space exploration are anything to go by, they no longer have anything like the most ambition. Elon Musk, by contrast, plans to be on Mars by 2020, and establish a colony he wants to…
  • You should need a license to take out a mortgage

    Aziz
    12 May 2014 | 5:24 am
    In The Atlantic, Moisés Naím points to a recent study that poses three simple questions on personal finance: 1. Suppose you had $100 in a savings account and the interest rate was 2 percent per year. After five years, how much do you think you would have in the account if you left the money to grow? A) more than $102; B) exactly $102; C) less than $102; D) do not know; refuse to answer. 2. Imagine that the interest rate on your savings account is 1 percent per year and inflation is 2 percent per year. After one year, would you be able to buy A) more than, B) exactly the same as, or C)…
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    eWallstreeter

  • March CPI Shows Inflation Rising

    17 Apr 2015 | 4:30 pm
    The Consumer Price Index increased 0.2\% for March, the same rate as February, as overall energy costs continued to rise.  Gasoline prices alone increased 3.9\%.  Inflation without food or energy prices considered increased 0.2\% for the month.  From a year ago overall inflation declined -0.1\% and this is due to the previous plunge in gasoline prices.   CPI measures inflation, or price increases.   Share //>
  • Policies that target the median wage

    17 Apr 2015 | 4:03 pm
    Politics notwithstanding, we know how to raise low wages. Sanity notwithstanding, we know how to further enrich owners of wealthy estates. But which policies will lift median wages? Over at PostEverything.
  • The UK's Cameron Attacks Bureaucracy, and Irony Ensues

    17 Apr 2015 | 1:15 pm
    red\_tape.jpg Home Page News Page Five years ago, a fresh-faced leader of the opposition stood on the stage at a TED conference in London speaking to a gathering of technologists and entrepreneurs. His promise was to deliver the next age of government. David Cameron’s talk did not feature the words “austerity”, “immig
  • Déjà Vu Weather? No, It's a Recession!

    17 Apr 2015 | 1:01 pm
    New Seasonal Pattern?Yesterday Fed Governor Stanley Fischer proclaimed U.S. Economy Should Rebound After ‘Poor’ First Quarter. “There’s definitely a rebound on the way already, and we’ll see at what speed it proceeds,” Mr. Fischer said during an interview on CNBC. “The first quarter was poor. That seems to be a new seasonal pattern. It’s been that way for about four of the last five years.Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said Wednesday that he thinks a “strong case” can
  • Only a Few of the Technology Giants Seem to be in Control of Online Music

    17 Apr 2015 | 12:45 pm
    online\_music.jpg Home Page News Page Digital music downloads and online streaming sales have now overtaken sales of CDs and records for the first time, underscoring just how fundamentally the internet has changed the way we consume. <p>Digital music downloads and online streamin
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    The Last Embassy

  • ACA/Obamacare: When Politically Supplanting One Entitlement with Another Entitlement Doesn’t Balance the Books

    W.E. Heasley
    17 Apr 2015 | 2:58 am
    ‘Earlier this month, the Obama administration reversed course on spending cuts to the popular Medicare Advantage program. Instead of a nearly 1% cut in payments, private health insurers that offer Advantage plans to seniors would get a 1.25% boost. The turnabout hardly made news, which isn't surprising since it was the third year in a row that the administration said it was planning to cut
  • ACA/Obamacare: Penalty/Tax Reaches New Zeniths Regarding Uninsured Status in 2015

    W.E. Heasley
    8 Apr 2015 | 10:18 am
    “NEW YORK (MainStreet) — The fee for not having health insurance coverage in 2015 will increase to 2% of your annual household income or up to $975 per family, $325 per adult and $162.50 for each child under the age of 18 years, whichever is higher. That's twice as much as the maximum penalty in 2014, when the fee was 1% of your annual household income, or $95.00 per adult and $47.50 per child
  • The Barking Cat Visits the Medicare Price Fixing Scheme

    W.E. Heasley
    4 Apr 2015 | 10:06 am
    “The word “bipartisan” is considered by many inside the Beltway to be one of the highest honors that can be bestowed on a piece of legislation. That’s unfortunate, because too often bipartisanship means Republicans and Democrats supporting a bill that is all but certain to produce bad outcomes. The latest example of such bipartisanship is the “Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act” (
  • ACA/Obamacare and the Medicaid Expansion Component

    W.E. Heasley
    3 Apr 2015 | 3:35 am
    “Medicaid enrollment has surged 19% nationally since ObamaCare’s expansion—50% in New Mexico, 65% in Oregon, 81% in Kentucky—and spending is exploding. So taxpayers ought to be grateful that the Supreme Court declined 5-4 on Tuesday to convert this entitlement—and all the others—into a private right. Medicaid, the joint state-federal program originally meant for the poor and disabled, sets
  • Despite ACA/Obamacare Claims, Health Insurance Premium Increases March On

    W.E. Heasley
    1 Apr 2015 | 2:00 am
    “It’s been five years since the Affordable Care Act became law, but only two since most of its provisions went into effect. As its detractors predicted, the ACA’s implementation led to a large, immediate rise in health insurance premiums. This is hardly surprising: The law required that a broad swath of treatments be fully insured, thus deepening the moral hazard problems that have long plagued
 
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    FTMDaily.com

  • VIDEO: Learn 14 ETFs That Will Soar During The Next Stock Market Crash

    Jerry Robinson
    17 Apr 2015 | 3:20 pm
    In this special Pro Trader video training, you will learn the same ETFs we use to profit in a bear market. The post VIDEO: Learn 14 ETFs That Will Soar During The Next Stock Market Crash appeared... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • CHART: First China A-Shares 2X Leveraged ETF Hits the Market

    Jerry Robinson
    17 Apr 2015 | 12:44 pm
    China stock market fever strikes Wall Street... The post CHART: First China A-Shares 2X Leveraged ETF Hits the Market appeared first on FTMDaily.com. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • CHART: Japan Surpasses China as Top U.S. Debtholder

    Jerry Robinson
    16 Apr 2015 | 7:22 am
    For the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, Japan overtakes China as top U.S. debt holder. The post CHART: Japan Surpasses China as Top U.S. Debtholder appeared first on FTMDaily.com. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • TOM CLOUD: Silver Gains Expected This Year

    Tom Cloud
    15 Apr 2015 | 11:42 am
    We expect to see at least 20% gains for silver in 2015... The post TOM CLOUD: Silver Gains Expected This Year appeared first on FTMDaily.com. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • PODCAST: The News Behind the News

    Jerry Robinson
    14 Apr 2015 | 10:58 am
    On today's show, economist and FTMDaily.com founder Jerry Robinson breaks down some of the latest underreported news headlines. The post PODCAST: The News Behind the News appeared first on... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
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    Tao Economics

  • 2 Main Reasons Why People Fail at Starting a Business

    Cor Bader
    30 Mar 2015 | 2:18 pm
    I was listening to a James Altuchers podcast today (I’m a fan), where he was interviewing a guy named Steve DiNisio who liquidates companies and will re-sell things like used restaurant equipment on the second hand market that he requires form the liquidation process. Over the years Steve as a liquidator has picked up on […]
  • The Difference Between Staples and the Federal Government

    Cor Bader
    11 Feb 2015 | 1:56 pm
    Staples is taking a lot of flack due to making its employees adhere to the 25 hour work week.  Many politicians including my own congressmen seem to be chiming in on how to run Staples.  Both seem to say that the 25 hour work week has nothing to do with Obamacare, even though a recent […]
  • Fear, Oil Plunge, and Gold Stocks

    Cor Bader
    15 Oct 2014 | 8:20 am
    The yield on 10-year treasury bonds dropped over 6% this morning as I type.  This drop is huge for the bond market and indicates a lot of fear out there.  What else do people buy other than treasuries when there is fear?  Gold of course!   Though gold doesn’t quite seem to be getting the […]
  • Water Problems and Commodities Bounce

    Cor Bader
    14 Oct 2014 | 7:48 am
    Our forum user DR post this article in the message board the other day, “In 60 days the mass migrations from CA begin” on dozens of communities in norther California hitting the wall with available water.  From the article, ““There’s really nothing can you about it,” resident John Dougherty told CBS San Francisco. “I don’t water […]
  • Slowly Re-Launching Tao Economics

    Cor Bader
    6 Oct 2014 | 7:09 pm
    If you have been here on the front page of the Tao Economics site lately, you will have noticed that it it does not look the same way as it has in the past and all the content that I have posted over the years are gone as well. I have switched the back end from […]
 
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    Exchange Rates UK - Currency News

  • Exchange Rates Today: GBP/USD Rises Through 1.4950; GBP/EUR Reaches 1.3950

    Adam Solomon
    17 Apr 2015 | 2:00 pm
    Today's Pound Sterling Forecast Report for the GBP to Euro and US Dollar The Pound continued its recovery against the U.S Dollar (USD exchange rate) on Thursday, rising through 1.4950 to approach the top end of the recently established trend. The GBP/USD previously traded at a fresh 5-year low on Monday this week, reaching below 1.46,... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • UK General Election Driving British Pound Exchange Rates vs US Dollar & Euro

    Tony Redondo
    17 Apr 2015 | 2:00 pm
    Exchange Rates UK look at near-term prospects for the British Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate in 2015-2016. The ‘yo-yo’ rate movements of late between the Pound and the US Dollar continues with trading in yesterday’s foreign exchange markets showing a 0.5% improvement in the exchange rate between the two in the Pound’s... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Pound to Euro Outlook: GBP/EUR Exchange Rate Faces UK Jobs and Final CPI

    Tom Trevorrow
    16 Apr 2015 | 2:00 pm
    Today's Pound Sterling to Euro Exchange Rate News and GBP-EUR FX Report With no top tier data released in the mid-week session, much of the focus switched to the European central bank meeting on Wednesday, where the ECB left rates unchanged at 0.05% whilst keeping overnight bank rate unchanged at -0.20%. Bonds struck new record highs,... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • NZ Dollar Outlook: NZD/GBP + NZD/EUR Exchange Rates Bolstered by Upbeat Oceanic Data, NZD/AUD Softer as ‘Aussie’ Jumps

    Colin Lawrence
    16 Apr 2015 | 2:00 pm
    New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Exchange Rate Climbs vs GBP, and EUR but Dips against AUD on Jobs Stats NZD/GBP, NZD/EUR, NZD/AUD Exchange Rates Climb, UK Labour Data, Eurozone CPI Ahead The New Zealand Dollar advanced against a variety of peers including the Pound, Euro and Australian Dollar on Friday ahead of influential Eurozone and UK... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Swiss Franc (CHF) Exchange Rates Pare Gains vs US Dollar, Pound after PPI m/m

    Colin Lawrence
    16 Apr 2015 | 2:00 pm
    Swiss Franc to Euro, Pound, US Dollar Exchange Rates and News – PPI Impacts CHF Exchange Rate With demand for the safe-haven Swiss Franc remaining sturdy amid political uncertainty in Greece and concerning economic reports for China, the European currency was able to extend gains against the US Dollar for a third day prior to the... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
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    BusinessClimate.com Blog

  • Outside Collaboration Key to Spurring Innovation, Growth Across Industries

    Emily McMackin
    17 Apr 2015 | 6:34 am
    The road to economic growth is paved with innovation. That’s been the consensus of many recent economic studies across industries, and it also holds true of a new report published by the National Bureau of Economic Research that examines how innovation is driving growth for some of the most successful businesses. And not just innovation per say but networked innovation. Examining more than 6,000 U.S. manufacturers and service-sector firms between 2007 and 2009, the bureau’s researchers found that 18 percent of firms had innovated by introducing a new product. Of these, almost half…
  • Trading Places: Top States for Export Jobs

    Bill McMeekin
    15 Apr 2015 | 3:30 am
    With the world getting smaller, the opportunities to tap into global markets are getting bigger for the nation’s small businesses. As newly released data by the U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA) on the top states for export jobs highlights, international trade is very much becoming key component of local economies in every part of the country. The U.S. recorded $2.3 trillion in exports in 2014, the fifth straight year of record trade, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. The transportation equipment, machinery, computers and electronics, petroleum products, and a…
  • STEM Surge: Science, Technology, Engineering and Math Jobs in High Demand

    Emily McMackin
    10 Apr 2015 | 3:30 am
    In a global economy where competition is growing fiercer than ever, technological innovation is a hot commodity, and so are workers skilled in science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) who make it happen. The U.S. needs about a million of these highly skilled employees to compete with the world’s top innovators, according to the Department of Commerce, so it’s no surprise that STEM jobs will represent the fastest-growing profession of the future. Estimates project that STEM jobs will expand 1.7 times faster than non-STEM occupations between 2008 and 2018. The high demand…
  • 10 States With the Biggest Job Growth

    Bill McMeekin
    8 Apr 2015 | 3:30 am
    The big got bigger in 2014. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm employment increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia between February 2014 and February 2015. States with the biggest job growth happened to be the largest among the 50, but there was significant growth in nonfarm employment in 38 states. As the leader among states with the biggest job growth, California is shaping a nice comeback story from the depths of the Great Recession. Construction jobs are on the rebound in the Golden State following the implosion of the housing market, with the sector…
  • Business Climate Change Deniers

    Matt Carmichael
    3 Apr 2015 | 4:00 am
    Wednesday, musician Jason Narducy wanted some pizza. He decided to pick up a slice or two in Walkerton, Ind., home of a business willing to declare that it would use Indiana’s new Religious Freedom Restoration Act to refuse service to gays and lesbians. Narducy found the one other pizza place in town, Casey’s, and confirmed they’ll serve anyone. He bought $100 worth of pizza and delivered it to protesters and media outside of the other store. He chronicled this adventure on his Twitter Feed. Comedian Margaret Cho retweeted the story with the hashtag #endhomophobiawithpizzaandrock.
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    FT Alphaville

  • Law professors come up with zany plan to ruin your retirement

    Matthew C Klein
    17 Apr 2015 | 11:27 am
    Here’s a weird idea (emphasis ours): Pass a law that restricts the holdings of mutual funds and other institutional investors. The law would be very simple. Currently, employees and employers get tax advantages when employers set up retirement accounts for employees. The government regulates the types of funds that employers may offer to their employees. The government should direct employers to offer only mutual funds that do not own a significant number of shares of more than one firm in a specific industry. In other words, mutual funds would be allowed to own shares of only a single…
  • Guest post: The Euro and the IMF Now

    Guest writer
    17 Apr 2015 | 5:02 am
    Here’s former IMF staffer Peter Doyle , with some bold advice from the wings of the IMF Spring meetings… _______Continue reading: Guest post: The Euro and the IMF Now
  • Markets Live: Friday, 17th April, 2015

    Paul Murphy
    17 Apr 2015 | 3:01 am
    Live markets commentary from FT.com Continue reading: Markets Live: Friday, 17th April, 2015
  • Wunderbund watch (0.072)

    Paul Murphy
    17 Apr 2015 | 2:32 am
    This is the first in what will probably be a short-lived series watching the miracle German 10 year benchmark bond head to zero. (It’s not about Eight Insane Most Breath-Stealing Rolex Day-Date Watches. You’d have to go to Buzzborg for that.)Continue reading: Wunderbund watch (0.072)
  • The artisanal of valuation

    Dan McCrum
    17 Apr 2015 | 1:54 am
    Trends: Day one move for Etsy share price, the ““human, authentic and community-centric global and local marketplace”: a jump from $16 to $30.Continue reading: The artisanal of valuation
 
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    Marginal REVOLUTION

  • Expectations and Investment

    Tyler Cowen
    17 Apr 2015 | 6:24 am
    That is the Gennaioli, Ma, and Shleifer paper being presented at the NBER macro conference, pdf here.  There are two key points to this paper.  First, actual data on the expectations of corporate CFOs have predictive power for investment, even when Tobin’s Q is measured.  Second, expectations about future earnings are not rational in the Lucasian sense.  I’ll update with remarks in the comments section of this post as the discussion proceeds (feel free to leave comments on my comments), again note that I am not allowed to attribute specific comments to individuals other than…
  • NBER Annual conference on macroeconomics

    Tyler Cowen
    17 Apr 2015 | 3:55 am
    Today I am at the NBER annual macroeconomics conference as an observer.  The program and papers are here, and they look very interesting.  You may be hearing more about this later; I am allowed to blog the presentations but not attribute specific comments to individuals.  The Bernanke talk I cannot cover at all.
  • China tobacco facts of the day

    Tyler Cowen
    16 Apr 2015 | 10:54 pm
    A conglomerate on the order of the old Gulf + Western, China National runs more than 160 cigarette brands, manufactured in about 100 factories across the country, and uses its earnings to invest in banks, luxury hotels, a hydroelectric plant, a golf course, and even drugmakers. Most of its money goes to its owner, the Chinese government; the tobacco industry accounts for about 7 percent of the state’s revenue each year [emphasis added], and China National controls as much as 98 percent of the market. All told, the industry in China employs more than 500,000 Chinese. They are among…
  • What I’ve been reading

    Tyler Cowen
    16 Apr 2015 | 9:46 pm
    1. Dead Wake: The Last Crossing of the Lusitania, by Erik Larson.  My favorite of his books, fun and readable as you would expect, many interesting details including what happens to you in water at 55 degrees Fahrenheit. 2. Philip Glass, Words Without Music.  “A lot of Einstein on the Beach was written at night after driving a cab.”  An excellent memoir of both Glass’s early life and the New York creative world up through 1976 or so. 3. Colm Tóibín, On Elizabeth Bishop.  A good example of a book I wish was longer than it was, it is shorter than its 199 pp. might…
  • The (tight money) culture that is Dutch

    Tyler Cowen
    16 Apr 2015 | 6:32 pm
    Just when it seemed the image of bankers couldn’t get any more battered or bizarre, the Dutch central bank has fired a 46-year-old female employee claimed to have been working after hours as a highly paid prostitute – specialising in sadomasochism. The Dutch central bank forbids “indecent behavior,” she had failed to register with the local chamber of commerce or pay appropriate taxes, and she was in violation of zoning laws. There is more at the link.
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    Zero Hedge

  • One Last Look At The Real Economy Before It Implodes - Part 5

    Tyler Durden
    17 Apr 2015 | 7:25 pm
    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com, (click here for Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4) Since I began writing analysis for the liberty movement more than eight years ago, I have always said that we will know when the endgame of the globalists is upon us when the criminals come out into the light of day and admit to their crimes. At that moment, it will be because they no longer fear either the repercussions or their plans being obstructed. As I plan to show in this installment of my series on the hidden fiscal collapse of America, the endgame has indeed arrived. At the very least,…
  • Sand-nado - Beijing Battered By Blanket Of Red Dust

    Tyler Durden
    17 Apr 2015 | 6:50 pm
    In yet another ripped from the movies-screen-esque event, Beijing was brought to a standstill today as a massive Interstellar-like sandstorm covered the Chinese capital in thick blanket of red dust, sparking social media discussions of the end of the world. As RT reports, The China Meteorological Administration issued a yellow sandstorm alert – the third-most serious danger level, which given the images below, makes us wonder just WTF it takes to get to a level 1 sandstorm... Stunning!! In a city of 21 million people...   As RT reports, Some areas in the city of 21 million recorded…
  • Putting The Real Story Of Energy & The Economy Together

    Tyler Durden
    17 Apr 2015 | 6:15 pm
    Submitted by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog, What is the real story of energy and the economy? We hear two predominant energy stories. One is the story economists tell: The economy can grow forever; energy shortages will have no impact on the economy. We can simply substitute other forms of energy, or do without. Another version of the energy and the economy story is the view of many who believe in the “Peak Oil” theory. According to this view, oil supply can decrease with only a minor impact on the economy. The economy will continue along as before, except with higher…
  • Is The Student Debt Bubble About To Witness Its 2007 Moment?

    Tyler Durden
    17 Apr 2015 | 5:40 pm
    Two days ago we highlighted a new study from the St. Louis Fed where someone had the very prudent idea to strip out loans in deferment and forbearance from the denominator of the student debt delinquency rate equation so everyone could get a better idea of what the real numbers look like.  The thing is, you can’t be delinquent when you aren’t required to make payments, so if you divide the number of delinquent student loans by the total amount of outstanding debt including loans in deferment and forbearance, you are comparing apples to oranges. Only around 55% of outstanding student…
  • 300 US Paratroopers Arrive In Ukraine After Russia Says Its Missiles Will Target NATO Member States

    Tyler Durden
    17 Apr 2015 | 5:20 pm
    While the escalation of the second Cold War between Russia and the US over their proxy conflict in Ukraine has been relegated to the back pages due to the lack of any flash points in recent months, events in eastern Europe continue to build up to an increasingly unstable equilibrium. Just yesterday, Russia again accused the United States of "seeking political and military dominance and sought to put blame on the West for international security crises, including the conflict in east Ukraine." It didn't stop there. According to the WSJ, Russia’s top general warned European countries planning…
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    nextnewdeal.net

  • Andrew McAfee: Immigration Reform Is Key to Our Economic Future

    tprice
    17 Apr 2015 | 9:07 am
    Our series on The Good Economy of 2040 continues with MIT’s Andrew McAfee. To build a better economy over the next 25 years, McAfee says, we’ll need a more open immigration system that welcomes skilled workers. "When the world’s most talented, ambitious, tenacious, capable people want to come here and build their lives and their careers…it absolutely makes no sense to me that we put all these ridiculous Kafkaesque barriers in their way." To read more about skilled immigration, check out the following articles: Getting a Visa Took Longer Than Building Instagram, Says Immigrant…
  • Clinton's Executive Pay Comments Show We're Still Too Focused on Fairness

    tprice
    17 Apr 2015 | 3:19 am
    Hillary Clinton surprised many progressives earlier this week with her remarks on a model populist issue. "There’s something wrong when CEOs make 300 times more than the typical worker. There’s something wrong when American workers keep getting more productive…but that productivity is not matched in their paychecks.” Indeed. From 1978 to 2013, executive compensation at American firms rose 937 percent, compared with a sluggish 10.2 percent growth in worker compensation over the same period. In 2013, the average CEO pay package at S&P 500 Index companies was worth $11.7 million.
  • For U.S. Women, Inequality Takes Many Forms

    tprice
    14 Apr 2015 | 10:46 am
    The gender wage gap is a complex problem, and we'll need to address factors like race and region to solve it. Although we are only a few months into 2015, it has already proven to be a watershed year for women’s rights around the world. On the heels of the International Women’s Day March for Gender Equality, the He for She and Planet 50-50 by 2030 Campaigns, and the twentieth anniversary of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action, international advocates and officials alike are coming together to evaluate the progress that has been made over the past several years. This raises the…
  • Four Reasons We Still Need Equal Pay Day

    tprice
    14 Apr 2015 | 9:32 am
    Happy Equal Pay Day! It would certainly be happier if we didn’t need an Equal Pay Day, wouldn’t it? But it’s 2015 and the wages of U.S. women continue to lag behind those of their male counterparts of equal age, education, and professional experience. More than 50 years ago President John F. Kennedy signed the Equal Pay Act, which prohibited discrimination “on account of sex in the payment of wages by employers.” At that time, women were paid 59 cents for every dollar paid to their male counterparts. In the half-century that has passed, that gap has shrunk by less than 20 cents;…
  • Predatory Finance Has Hurt Our Universities, But Students Can Fight Back

    tprice
    13 Apr 2015 | 8:15 am
    Our tuition checks shouldn't be going to pay off debts from Wall Street's bad deals. The last few decades have not been kind to America’s local public institutions. Cities that once built state-of-the-art infrastructure are now struggling to fix potholes in the street. Public schools that were once the best in the world are lagging behind. Even our universities, which used to be gateways to a shot at a better life, are increasingly becoming too expensive for much of the population. There’s no shortage of explanations for these problems, ranging from globalization to government waste to an…
 
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    Jared Bernstein | On the Economy

  • Policies that target the median wage

    Jared Bernstein
    17 Apr 2015 | 4:03 pm
    Politics notwithstanding, we know how to raise low wages. Sanity notwithstanding, we know how to further enrich owners of wealthy estates. But which policies will lift median wages? Over at PostEverything.
  • Chris Christie dangles the keys

    Jared Bernstein
    17 Apr 2015 | 9:53 am
    As I stressed on CNBC this AM, Chris Christie’s entitlement plan is not a good plan. It is instead a classic “key dangle” (“look over here, not over there!”), as the folks at Vox nailed yesterday, –While all the attention has been on benefit cuts for wealthier recipients, that part by itself does very little in terms of boosting the program’s long-term solvency. –He gets his solvency bucks from raising the retirement age, and that is an across-the-board cut for affected retirees. As my CBPP colleagues noted: “Raising the retirement age…
  • Sometimes, gov’t works pretty well…Declining uninsurance rates and the ACA

    Jared Bernstein
    13 Apr 2015 | 6:27 am
    Over at PostEverything, with a lovely picture to start your week:
  • Some early thoughts on Clintonomics, Hillary-style

    Jared Bernstein
    10 Apr 2015 | 12:04 pm
    Over at PostEverything. She’s kept many of these cards close to her vest, so I don’t think this is the easiest question in the world.
  • Friday Musical Interlude: If this doesn’t make you stand up and dance…

    Jared Bernstein
    10 Apr 2015 | 9:55 am
    …you might be stapled to your chair. I try not to fill up this space with pop hits you would have heard anyway, but this performance of Uptown Funk on the Ellen Show, with the whole audience signing backup, is just too fun to miss. Turn it up! “If you freaky, then own it!” 
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    Freakonomics

  • Read an Early Excerpt from When to Rob a Bank

    Freakonomics
    16 Apr 2015 | 12:40 pm
     Pre-order your copy today! In celebration of the 10th anniversary of Freakonomics comes this curated collection from the most readable economics blog in the universe. When Freakonomics was first published, its authors, Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, started a blog — and they’ve kept it up. The writing is more casual, more personal, even more outlandish than in their books. In When to Rob a Bank, they ask a host of typically off-center questions: Why don’t flight attendants get tipped? If you were a terrorist, how would you attack? And why does KFC always run out of…
  • Diamonds Are a Marriage Counselor’s Best Friend Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    15 Apr 2015 | 9:00 pm
    [MUSIC: Emerson Quartet, “String Sextet in D Minor” (from JOURNEYS Stephen J. DUBNER: In the theater, there is a principle known as “Chekhov’s Gun.” It comes from something once said by Anton Chekhov, the great Russian author and playwright:“You mustn’t put a loaded rifle on stage if no one intends to fire it. You shouldn’t make promises.” Chekhov — who was also a doctor, and a very wise man — knew what he was talking about. Laura STRAUSFELD: He’s the most produced playwright after Shakespeare, and there are a lot of guns in his plays. DUBNER: That’s Laura…
  • Diamonds Are a Marriage Counselor’s Best Friend: A New Freakonomics Radio Podcast

    Stephen J. Dubner
    15 Apr 2015 | 9:00 pm
    Jason and Kristen Sarata at the charity event where they won a diamond valued at $7,500. Our latest Freakonomics Radio episode is called “Diamonds Are a Marriage Counselor’s Best Friend.” (You can subscribe to the podcast at iTunes or elsewhere, get the RSS feed, or listen via the media player above. You can also read the transcript, which includes credits for the music you’ll hear in the episode.) The gist of the episode: It may seem like winning a valuable diamond is an unalloyed victory. It’s not. It’s not even clear that a diamond is so valuable. Imagine for a…
  • How Many Doctors Does It Take to Start a Healthcare Revolution? A New Freakonomics Radio Podcast

    Stephen J. Dubner
    8 Apr 2015 | 9:00 pm
    (Photo: official U.S. Navy page) Our latest Freakonomics Radio episode is called “How Many Doctors Does It Take to Start a Healthcare Revolution?” (You can subscribe to the podcast at iTunes or elsewhere, get the RSS feed, or listen via the media player above. You can also read the transcript, which includes credits for the music you’ll hear in the episode.) The gist of the episode: The practice of medicine has been subsumed by the business of medicine. This is great news for healthcare shareholders — and bad news for pretty much everyone else. In our previous episode,…
  • How Many Doctors Does It Take to Start a Healthcare Revolution? Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    8 Apr 2015 | 9:00 pm
    This is a transcript of the Freakonomics Radio podcast “How Many Doctors Does It Take to Start a Healthcare Revolution?“ Stephen J. DUBNER: Okay, let’s be honest: how much of what you know about medicine, especially emergency medicine, comes from watching TV? ER CHARACTER 1: Gunshot wound’s on its way. ER CHARACTER 2: When? ER CHARACTER 1: Now! DUBNER: Hospital dramas have long been a staple of the Western media diet. ER CHARACTER 1: Blake, find Benton. Clear trauma one and notify the O.R. DUBNER: And research shows that we tend to believe what we see on fictional TV shows. One…
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    interfluidity

  • Tangles of pathology

    Steve Randy Waldman
    8 Apr 2015 | 12:09 am
    Trilemmas are always fun. Let’s do one. You may pick two, but no more than two, of the following: Liberalism Inequality Nonpathology By “liberalism”, I mean a social order in which people are free to do as they please and live as they wish, in which everyone is formally enfranchised by a political process justified in terms of consent of the governed and equality of opportunity. By “inequality”, I mean high dispersion of economic outcomes between individuals over full lifetimes. [1] By “nonpathology”, I mean the absence of a sizable underclass within…
  • Surge!

    Steve Randy Waldman
    30 Dec 2014 | 2:23 pm
    So-called “surge pricing” is not the main thing to worry about with Uber. Investors who value the ethically challenged firm at an astonishing $40B have made a cynical (also ethically challenged) bet that “network effects” will permit the firm to basically own the 21st century successor to the taxi industry. Our main concern should be to ensure investors do not win that bet. In particular, public policy should focus on encouraging “multihoming”, where drivers advertise availability over several competing platforms (Uber, Lyft, Sidecar, etc.) simultaneously.
  • Some thoughts on QE

    Steve Randy Waldman
    2 Nov 2014 | 1:28 am
    “Quantitative Easing” — economics jargon for central banks issuing a fixed quantity of base money to buy some stuff — has been much in the news this week. On Wednesday, US Federal Reserve completed a gradual “taper” of its program to exchange new base money for US government and agency debt. Two days later, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly expanded its QE program, to the dramatic approval of equity markets. I have long been of two minds regarding QE. On the one hand, I think most of the developed world has fallen into a “hard money” trap, in which…
  • Rational regret

    Steve Randy Waldman
    28 Oct 2014 | 6:05 am
    Suppose that you have a career choice to make: There is a “safe bet” available to you, which will yield a discounted lifetime income of $1,000,000. Alternatively, there is a risky bet, which will yield a discounted lifetime income of $100,000,000 with 10% probability, or a $200,000 lifetime income with 90% probability. The expected value of Option 1 is $1,000,000. The expected value of Option 2 is (0.1 × $100,000,000) + (0.9 × $200,000) = $10,180,000. For a rational, risk-neutral agent, Option 2 is the right choice by a long-shot. A sufficiently risk-averse agent, of…
  • Econometrics, open science, and cryptocurrency

    Steve Randy Waldman
    17 Oct 2014 | 7:29 am
    Mark Thoma wrote the wisest two paragraphs you will read about econometrics and empirical statistical research in general: You are testing a theory you came up with, but the data are uncooperative and say you are wrong. But instead of accepting that, you tell yourself "My theory is right, I just haven't found the right econometric specification yet. I need to add variables, remove variables, take a log, add an interaction, square a term, do a different correction for misspecification, try a different sample period, etc., etc., etc." Then, after finally digging out that one…
 
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    Credit Writedowns

  • Will the AIIB ever matter?

    Michael Pettis
    13 Apr 2015 | 8:46 am
    By Michael Pettis When Isaac, an editor at Foreign Policy, sent me an email two weeks ago asking if I could write a piece on the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), I quickly wrote back promising 1,200 words within a few days. I thought it would be pretty easy to come up with the points I wanted to make, […] The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. Will the AIIB ever matter? originally appeared on Credit Writedowns Links: RSS - Daily - Weekly - Twitter - Facebook - Contact Related posts: Review: How My Ten Surprises for 2012 Fared Negative free…
  • The ‘Perfect Storm’

    Niels Jensen
    10 Apr 2015 | 4:16 am
    Going forward, equity markets are likely to have a much bigger impact on the economy than has been the case in the past. This is a simple conclusion derived from the fact that total equity market value today is 1.2x GDP. 35 years ago, when we entered the great bull market, total equity market value was only 0.4x GDP (the numbers are U.S.). No wonder the financial collapse in 2008 had such a dramatic effect on the economy. The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. The ‘Perfect Storm’ originally appeared on Credit Writedowns Links: RSS - Daily - Weekly -…
  • Spain may not be Greece, but it is Not the Opposite Either

    Marc Chandler
    9 Apr 2015 | 10:15 am
    The important point is that returning to growth after the crisis may not be sufficient to facilitate political stability. The damage to the middle class is serious and Rajoy does not appear to appreciate that. The economic cost of austerity is still being calculated. There will be a political price in some countries and Spain is one of them. It is not Greece, but it is not the poster child of success that the ordo-liberals in Berlin and Brussels would have it either. The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. Spain may not be Greece, but it is Not the Opposite Either…
  • Is Greece’s Debt Odious?

    Marc Chandler
    6 Apr 2015 | 4:11 am
    There is a legal concept called "odious debts." It can be traced back more than a century. The US helped create a precedent for it by denying Cuba's responsibility for the debt incurred under Spanish colonial rule. The concept took on added significance in the post-colonial era more broadly. The issue here is the continuity of legal obligations from one regime to another especially as it pertains to the debt acquired. The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. Is Greece’s Debt Odious? originally appeared on Credit Writedowns Links: RSS - Daily - Weekly -…
  • Is Finland’s Economy Suffering From Secular Stagnation?

    Edward Hugh
    6 Apr 2015 | 3:56 am
    Finnish society, like many other European ones, is in the throes of a major transition. More debate needs to be held on what to do to facilitate the transition, and in the meantime deficit spending to make investments in future productivity improvements seems not to be a bad idea. Running deficits in order not to change, in contrast, would be. The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. Is Finland’s Economy Suffering From Secular Stagnation? originally appeared on Credit Writedowns Links: RSS - Daily - Weekly - Twitter - Facebook - Contact Related posts: We…
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    Liberty Street Economics

  • At the New York Fed: Chapter 9 and Alternatives for Distressed Municipalities and States

    Blog Author
    17 Apr 2015 | 4:00 am
    Andrew Haughwout On Tuesday, April 14, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York hosted an all-day workshop entitled Chapter 9 and Alternatives for Distressed Municipalities and States. The workshop was jointly organized and sponsored by the Volcker Alliance and George Mason University’s State and Local Government Leadership Center. The event brought together key experts, practitioners, and researchers on the subject of fiscal distress at the state and local level. The aim of the session was to foster discussion on the role of Chapter 9 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code, alternatives for distressed…
  • Just Released: Press Briefing on Student Loan Borrowing and Repayment Trends, 2015

    Blog Author
    16 Apr 2015 | 9:00 am
    Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw This morning, Jamie McAndrews, the Director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, spoke to the press about the economic recovery, and his speech was followed by a special briefing by New York Fed economists on student loans. Here, we provide a short summary of the student loan briefing. Increasing Balances, Increasing Number of Borrowers The first portion of the special briefing on student loans described the outstanding aggregate balance and highlighted some changes in borrowing patterns. The aggregate…
  • Just Released: April Empire State Manufacturing Survey Indicates Sluggish Conditions

    Blog Author
    15 Apr 2015 | 5:45 am
    Jason Bram and Richard DeitzThe April 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey, released today, points to continued weakness in New York’s manufacturing sector. The survey’s headline general business conditions index turned slightly negative for the first time since December, falling 8 points to -1.2 in a sign that the growth in manufacturing had paused. The new orders index—a bellwether of demand for manufactured goods—was also negative, pointing to a modest decline in orders for a second consecutive month. Employment growth slowed, too. The Empire Survey has been signaling sluggish…
  • Please Read This before Betting against Government Bond Betas

    Blog Author
    15 Apr 2015 | 4:00 am
    J. Benson Durham Mounting evidence says that “low-risk” investing delivers superior returns, comparable to strategies based on value, size, and momentum. Such tactics include the “risk parity” (RP) asset allocation approach, which received considerable attention during the 2013 taper tantrum when many RP funds reportedly deleveraged. This strategy requires long or overweight positions in low-risk asset classes, such as government bonds, and offsetting short or underweight positions in risky asset classes, including shares. The low-risk umbrella also covers “betting against beta”…
  • Population Lost: Puerto Rico’s Troubling Out-Migration

    Blog Author
    13 Apr 2015 | 4:00 am
    Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz For the first time in modern history, Puerto Rico is seeing its population decline. This troubling loss can be traced to an exodus of Puerto Rican citizens to the U.S. mainland, a current that has picked up considerably in recent years as Puerto Rico’s economy has deteriorated. Today, fully a third of those born in Puerto Rico now reside on the U.S. mainland. In this post, we examine the recent surge in out-migration that is driving Puerto Rico’s population decline (which we delve into in more detail in a recent article in the New York Fed’s Current…
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    The Incidental Economist

  • Healthcare Triage News: Medicare and the Doc Fix

    Aaron Carroll
    17 Apr 2015 | 11:57 am
    We’ve got a permanent doc fix. It’s all about the sustainable growth rate. Confused? We’ll help. This is Healthcare Triage News. @aaronecarroll
  • Interpreting the latest ACO study

    Austin Frakt
    17 Apr 2015 | 3:00 am
    Below I list some findings, and what I think they mean, from the recent study on Medicare Pioneer ACOs by Michael McWilliams and colleagues. My thoughts are informed by emails exchanged with Michael. After one year (i.e., in 2012), Pioneer ACOs saved money (1.2%) and maintained or improved in various measures of quality of care. As much as you can take any findings about Pioneer ACOs to the bank, you can take these. No, they’re not based on a randomized design or natural experiment. No, there’s no highly plausible instrumental variable design, nor one I could imagine. So of…
  • Are there people speaking out against faulty science? Yes.

    Aaron Carroll
    16 Apr 2015 | 8:30 am
    Yes. There are. It’s just that we don’t promote them the same way. Julie Belluz has a great piece in Vox today about Dr. Oz. It’s long, it’s detailed, and it’s worth your time. It’s her last paragraph that caught my eye, though: There are not enough people speaking out against faulty science in health — what Caulfield calls the “slow drift toward a faith-based approach.” As a gifted researcher and doctor, and a charismatic communicator, Oz had the potential to be a voice of reason in this moment of confusion. Instead, he’s leading…
  • Treating hepatitis C: literature update

    guest contributor
    16 Apr 2015 | 8:00 am
    The following is a guest post by Allan Joseph, a medical student at the Warren Alpert Medical School of Brown University and TIE research assistant. You can follow Allan on Twitter: @allanmjoseph. Links to Allan’s previous posts on hepatitis C can be found here, a post that also contains a glossary of terms. In the months since my summer 2014 series on hepatitis C (HCV) and the drug sofosbuvir (better known by its trade name, Sovaldi), researchers have continued to pump out studies examining HCV treatment. Since much of that research has implications for policy and public health, I thought…
  • In NEJM: Protection or Harm? Suppressing Substance-Use Data

    multiple authors
    16 Apr 2015 | 3:00 am
    This post is jointly authored by Nicholas Bagley and Austin Frakt. Yesterday evening, the New England Journal of Medicine released a Perspective piece that we co-authored on the recent suppression of Medicare and Medicaid data to researchers. (For our earlier coverage, see the posts collected here.) As we explain, the data suppression is both unnecessary and harmful: What if it were impossible to closely study a disease affecting 1 in 11 Americans over 11 years of age—a disease that’s associated with more than 60,000 deaths in the United States each year, that tears families apart, and…
 
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    LewRockwell

  • Pretty White Women Get Paid More

    No Author
    16 Apr 2015 | 10:01 pm
    Yesterday was Equal Pay Day. Or maybe it’s today. Or maybe it’s tomorrow. Who really cares. In a recent post, Black Guys, Fat Guys, and Discrimination, I mentioned that I used to work at a law firm in San Francisco as a paralegal. About six months after I was hired, the firm hired a White woman who was pretty, blonde, and had a southern drawl. Her name was Tara. One day I was bored with work. I started looking through some of the documents that were stored on the firm’s hard drive. All these documents were available for employees, so I didn’t feel too bad in reviewing…
  • Accredit Yourself

    No Author
    16 Apr 2015 | 10:01 pm
    Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog, (Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3 here) An entire new feedback loop of accreditation is needed, and fortunately that feedback is within our control: it’s a process I call accredit yourself. Economist Michael Spence developed the job market signaling model of valuing employees based on their credentials in the 1970s. The basic idea is that signaling overcomes the inherent asymmetry of information between employer and potential employee, i.e. what skills the employer needs and what skills the employee actually has is a mystery to the other…
  • Hitler in Lederhosen

    No Author
    16 Apr 2015 | 10:01 pm
    In lederhosen and knee-high socks, Adolf Hitler lounges against a tree in a pose more twit than tyrant. It is little surprise the Fuhrer later banned the absurdly camp woodland snap, calling it ‘beneath one’s dignity’. But the rare archive photo, and several other portraits as comical as they are chilling, have been discovered in a Hitler ‘fan magazine’ from the Thirties. Hitler seems ill at ease with his hands, squeezing them into his tight lederhosen pockets in one photo, and perching them awkwardly on his hips in another. In one ridiculous picture, he tilts his head and tries a…
  • The Most Popular Ammo Calibers?

    No Author
    16 Apr 2015 | 10:01 pm
    I’m sure many of you remember why there were so many guns sold between 2008 and 2014. Between Obama’s reelection and the threats of confiscation after Sandy Hook, there was a genuine fear for our right to bear arms. Even now, that fear wouldn’t be unwarranted. But back then it almost seemed like a panic. Guns were flying off the shelves and so much ammo was being sold that the police were having trouble maintaining their regular supplies. And it wasn’t just the most popular weapons that were being sold out, like the AR-15. The prices for every kind of firearm were going up. Even cheap…
  • New Libertarian Country in Europe

    No Author
    16 Apr 2015 | 10:01 pm
    A Czech national has proclaimed the establishment of a new country of seven square kilometers on ‘no man’s land’ located at the border of Serbia and Croatia. A Czech named Vít Jedlicka has declared himself the president of Europe’s youngest country, which he formed on April 13 with the name ‘Liberland,’ and the motto “to live and let live.” The country is located on the west bank of the Danube river between Croatia and Serbia, on land which has been subject to a decades-long border dispute and therefore, according to Jedlicka, a…
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    Angry Bear

  • Northwest Plan for Social Security: Conservative “Workers – Take Your Medicine”-ism (and why this Social Democrat likes it)

    Bruce Webb
    17 Apr 2015 | 9:05 am
    Long time readers of Angry Bear will be familiar with the Northwest Plan for a Real Social Security Fix. It has been pushed here in a series of posts and in innumerable comments (mostly by Dale Coberly) since 2009 including this core post: NW Plan for a Real Social Security Fix Ver 2.0: 2009 Trigger. […]
  • Open thread March 17, 2015

    Dan Crawford
    17 Apr 2015 | 7:20 am
  • The Curious Case of the ACA at tax time

    Robert Waldmann
    17 Apr 2015 | 12:43 am
    Tax day has come and gone and nothing extraordinary happened (at least nothing extraordinary enough to be reported by the Washington Post or the New York Times). This non news should be news, because the much hated Obamacare mandate has been applied. Some Refund checks (many of which have not have been mailed yet) were […]
  • Oh, look! The uninsured rate fell again!

    Kenneth Thomas
    16 Apr 2015 | 1:37 am
    As any conservative can tell you, Obamacare is a job-killing “train wreck.” Not only is it a job killer, there is no way that it could possibly work. Except, of course, it does. When I last visited this issue, the percentage of adults without health insurance had fallen from its peak of 18.0% in the […]
  • IMF Global Financial Stability Report

    Edward Lambert
    15 Apr 2015 | 3:06 pm
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    Macro and Other Market Musings

  • It Takes A Regime Shift to Raise an Economy

    17 Apr 2015 | 1:24 pm
    This week we learned that Ben Bernanke does not view NGDP level targeting, price level targeting, or a higher inflation target as the best way to deal with the zero lower bound (ZLB) problem. Now I believe the "what to do at the ZLB" debate is becoming moot as the U.S. economy improves, but it is interesting to consider Bernanke's thoughts on these alternative approaches to monetary policy. Here he is questioning their usefulness at the ZLB relative to his preferred approach: The second possible direction of change for the monetary policy framework would be to keep the targets-based approach…
  • It's Already Priced Into the Market

    31 Mar 2015 | 4:58 pm
    Former Fed chair Ben Bernanke blogged about secular stagnation today and he's not buying it:Does the U.S. economy face secular stagnation? I am skeptical, and the sources of my skepticism go beyond the fact that the U.S. economy looks to be well on the way to full employment today. First... at real interest rates persistently as low as minus 2 percent it’s hard to imagine that there would be a permanent dearth of profitable investment projects. As Larry’s uncle Paul Samuelson taught me in graduate school at MIT, if the real interest rate were expected to be negative indefinitely, almost…
  • Ben Bernanke and the Secular Stagnation Debate

    30 Mar 2015 | 5:50 pm
    Ben Bernanke is back and mulling over low interest rates. From the Washington Post:Blogging isn't dead. At least, Ben Bernanke, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, doesn't think so: He's now blogging at the Brookings Institution. In his first post, he says he wants to write about this fascinating chart, which shows the steady decline in interest rates over the past 30 years or so.The question of why interest rates keep falling is an important one these days. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has argued that declining real rates are a symptom…
  • Do Air Conditioners Explain the Rise of the South?

    28 Mar 2015 | 9:44 pm
    Paul Krugman says yes and yes:The rise of the US sunbelt can be understood largely as a response to the emergence of widespread air conditioning, which made places that are warm in the winter attractive despite humid, muggy summers. It’s a gradual, long-drawn-out response, because location decisions have a lot of inertia[.]And this:[T]here’s a real demographic turning point for the South circa 1960, as a steadily falling share of the total US population shifts to a sustained rise...this turning point coincides with the coming of widespread home air conditioning. So when you ask why…
  • Are Wages Primed for Take Off?

    27 Mar 2015 | 1:54 pm
    Just a quick note on whether the Fed should raise interest rates later this year. One concern that many observers have with the Fed tightening is that nominal wage growth has yet to show any signs of accelerating. They often point to the employment cost index which only shows modest nominal income growth.An alternative way to think about this issue is to look at the University of Michigan/Thompson Reuters Survey of Consumers where households are asked how much their dollar (i.e. nominal) family incomes are expected to change over the next 12 months. I have used this series in the past to…
 
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    niesr.ac.uk

  • Welfare savings and incapacity benefits

    JonathanPortes
    16 Apr 2015 | 12:07 am
    It has been clear for some time that the Conservatives’ plans to achieve a budget surplus in the next  Parliament – regarded with considerable scepticism by most informed observers, from the IMF to the vast majority of leading UK macroeconomists – was dependent on large cuts to spending on working age social security benefits, only a small fraction of which the Conservatives were willing to specify in advance of the election.
  • Migration, growth and jobs: a positive agenda

    JonathanPortes
    30 Mar 2015 | 6:22 am
    This article was originally written for the Recruitment and Employment Confederation's e-book "Building the Best Jobs Market in the World: the Expert View", and is reproduced with permission.
  • A troubling attitude to statistics

    JonathanPortes
    15 Mar 2015 | 2:34 am
    Last week, a government press release  trumpeting the success of the “Troubled Families Programme” (TFP) claimed: More than 105,000 troubled families turned around saving taxpayers an estimated £1.2 billion
  • Welfare reform: a plea for better journalism

    JonathanPortes
    9 Mar 2015 | 3:23 am
    I was at an excellent event last week organised by the Alliance for Useful Evidence entitled "Stats, Facts and Evidence: what role for evidence in the General Election and beyond."    In discussion, I made the point that it was inevitable, whether we like it or not, that politicians would seek to present the evidence in the best possible light, occasionally to the point of misrepresenting it; but that journalists didn't have to go along with thi
  • The Coalition Government’s record on immigration

    JonathanPortes
    23 Feb 2015 | 5:59 am
    Immigration was a central issue in the 2010 election, with the Conservatives pledging to reduce net migration to the “levels of the 1990s, when it was tens of thousands per year". Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats suggested an amnesty for irregular migrants who had been in the country for more than ten years.
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    Bruegel - Latest Updates

  • Big improvement in the Greek primary budget

    17 Apr 2015 | 7:19 am
    Ahead of what promises to be a very tense negotiation period, the Greek Ministry of Finance released the preliminary budget execution data for the first three months of 2015. The State primary budget is reported to considerably exceed expectations, due to both expenditures below target and revenues picking up. The coming month promises to be very tense for Greece, as negotiations seem to proceed slowly and payment deadlines are approaching fast. The Eurogroup is due to meet next week, on April 24th, to discuss the Greek reform list that will be the basis for the final programme review and…
  • Will Greece run out of cash?

    17 Apr 2015 | 5:13 am
    For many weeks now it has been regularly reported that Greece will run out of money if an agreement is not reached with the official lenders in the next few days. So far this has not happened. Given the huge stock of financial assets the Greek government has, I am always cautious about reports that it will soon  run out of cash.  At the end of September 2014, the Greek government had assets worth €86.6 billion (Table 1). The data is unfortunately outdated, and assets have most likely been depleted significantly during the past six months.  Some of the deposits are earmarked…
  • Will natural gas cooperation with Russia save the Greek economy?

    16 Apr 2015 | 9:12 am
      In the midst of profound turbulence in the negotiations between Greece and its international lenders, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras flew to Moscow last week for an official visit to President Vladimir Putin. This meeting, portrayed by many commentators as a bargaining chip with its European creditors, was officially intended to improve bilateral relations between the two countries in various economic sectors. Greece had high expectations from this meeting, in terms of financial assistance, potential gas discounts and a lift of the Russian ban on the food imports from…
  • Towards a digital single market: the European Commission strategy

    16 Apr 2015 | 7:31 am
    The European Commission will announce its strategy for the digital single market in early May. The policy programme will focus on three areas:Better access for consumers and businesses to digital goods and servicesBuilding an environment for digital networks and services to flourishCreating a true European digital economy and society with long-term growth potentialIn an open exchange of views Andrus Ansip, European Commission vice-president responsible for the digital single market, will present the strategy and participate in a debate with experts and guests. SpeakersAndrus Ansip,…
  • Mapping European Competitiveness

    15 Apr 2015 | 7:06 am
    We are pleased to announce that the MapCompete Final Conference will take place on 28- 29 May 2015 in Brussels.MAPCOMPETE, a support action for the European Commission carried out by a consortium of European research institutes (see www.mapcompete.eu), has been designed to provide a thorough assessment of data opportunities and requirements for the comparative analysis of competitiveness in European countries, both at the macro and the micro level.The aim of the Final Conference is to present all the research work conducted in the project, with a duration of two and half years, which can be a…
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    TaxVox

  • Corporate Tax Reform and Small Business

    Eric Toder
    17 Apr 2015 | 8:39 am
    While there is no chance that Congress will agree to broad-based tax reform before the next president takes office in 2017, lawmakers are making one last effort to enact a more narrow business-based reform. But they face a big challenge:  reforms under consideration could raise taxes paid by many small businesses. To help lawmakers understand the implications of this choice, I testified on April 15 before the House Small Business Committee. There is a developing consensus that our corporate tax system is broken and needs reform. The President and Republican tax-writers both favor reducing…
  • Bipartisan or Partisan: Tax Efforts Abound

    Renu Zaretsky
    17 Apr 2015 | 5:00 am
    There’s a bipartisan House effort to double the federal gas tax. It would raise the 18.4 cents-per-gallon tax to about 30 cents, would be inflation adjusted, and would rise again in three years if Congress does not find another way to pay for federal transportation projects. The bill’s sponsors—mostly back-benchers—say it would raise $27.5 billion. That would fund about two years of transportation projects. So far, House leaders have opposed any gas tax hike. Marco Rubio tries to thread the needle on tax reform. TPC’s Howard Gleckman looks at the presidential hopeful’s tax reform…
  • Rubio Tries to Triangulate Tax Policy

    Howard Gleckman
    16 Apr 2015 | 1:55 pm
    Newly declared GOP presidential hopeful Senator Marco Rubio is trying something truly (Bill) Clintonesque—navigating between the demands of his party’s base and a more centrist, forward-looking political agenda. Nowhere is it more obvious than in tax policy. And nowhere is the road ahead more risky for his presidential ambitions. In March, Rubio and fellow senator Mike Lee (R-UT) proposed a significant, though incomplete, tax reform plan. Their introduction to the plan highlights the need to address income inequality and what Clinton called “the middle-class squeeze” back in 1992.
  • Death and Taxes: Certainty and Conflict

    Renu Zaretsky
    16 Apr 2015 | 5:00 am
    The House plans a vote to repeal the estate tax today. Repealing the levy would cut taxes by $270 billion over 10 years for 0.2 percent of the nation’s richest estates. The White House and Democrats are vehemently opposed. The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that 5,400 estates will face the GOP-named “death tax” in each of  the next several years. More than 2 million people die in the US annually. Presidential hopeful Marco Rubio’s proposed tax cuts: Not enough, say some conservatives. In the plan Rubio and Senator Mike Lee propose, the top individual tax rate would drop from…
  • Why The Top 2 Percent Pay Lots of Tax: Evidence from President Obama’s 1040

    Roberton Williams
    15 Apr 2015 | 7:36 am
    The White House released Barack Obama’s 2014 tax return last week. It showed that the President and First Lady paid $93,362 in federal taxes on a total income of $477,383—an effective tax rate of 19.6 percent. But those are only the top-line numbers—their return contains lots of interesting information that shows how the income tax affects people whose income falls just below the top 1 percent. The Obamas didn’t quite make it into that vaunted 1 percent last year—the Tax Policy Center estimates that their adjusted gross income (AGI) would have had to exceed $500,000 to get them into…
 
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    Off the Charts Blog | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

  • In Case You Missed It . . .

    CBPP
    17 Apr 2015 | 1:14 pm
    This week on Off the Charts, we focused on federal and state taxes and the safety net. On federal and state taxes, Chuck Marr explained how the House Republican approach to make “tax extenders” permanent represents both ill-advised fiscal policy and misguided priorities and excerpted his Real Clear Policy post, where he pointed out that repealing the federal estate tax would benefit the heirs of the wealthiest estates greatly — and the vast majority of estates not at all. He also noted that IRS Oversight Board survey data show that Americans overwhelmingly take pride in paying their…
  • Americans Take Pride in Paying Taxes

    Chuck Marr
    17 Apr 2015 | 12:27 pm
    Forget the conventional wisdom.  Americans overwhelmingly take pride in paying their taxes, recent IRS Oversight Board survey data show. Our country’s tax system functions largely on a voluntary basis, albeit with significant third party information and a backstop of enforcement.  Its proper functioning, therefore, depends on a high level of civic duty and responsibility, and that’s exactly what exists.  Some 94 percent of Americans believe it’s their civic duty to pay their fair share of taxes. In a piece in The Atlantic, Vanessa Williamson highlighted some interview anecdotes that…
  • Undocumented Immigrants Pay Larger Share of Income in State and Local Taxes Than Top Earners

    Michael Leachman
    17 Apr 2015 | 11:30 am
    Undocumented immigrants pay a larger share of their income in state and local taxes than the nation’s top earners and immigration reform would improve state and local finances across the country, a new report from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) shows. Undocumented immigrants pay sales taxes when they buy goods and services; property taxes (mostly through their rent); and income taxes through their paychecks — even those who don’t file income tax returns, although as many as three-quarters do. Among the report’s key findings: Undocumented immigrants paid about…
  • States Can Use Smart Strategies to Curb ER Visits

    Judy Solomon
    16 Apr 2015 | 9:52 am
    We often hear that Medicaid beneficiaries use the emergency room (ER) for too much of their health care.  In response, some states have tried to reduce non-emergency use of the ER by charging beneficiaries co-pays.  As we explained in a recent paper, however, this approach is flawed — and other states have found better ways to connect beneficiaries with the care they need and avoid unnecessary ER use. Medicaid beneficiaries do use the ER more frequently than adults with other health coverage, but their visits are almost always for serious medical problems.  Only about 10 percent of ER…
  • Happy Tax Day!

    CBPP
    15 Apr 2015 | 12:53 pm
    Here’s a roundup of the tax pieces we’ve recently issued or updated. Our Favorite Charts Top 10 Federal Tax Charts Top 5 (+1) State Tax Charts Recently Updated Tax Basics Where Do Our Federal Tax Dollars Go? Where Do Federal Tax Revenues Come From? Federal Payroll Taxes Federal Tax Expenditures Tax Exemptions, Deductions, and Credits The Federal Estate Tax Marginal and Average Tax Rates Where Do Our State Tax Dollars Go? Working-Family Tax Credits EITC and Child Tax Credit Promote Work, Reduce Poverty, and Support Children’s Development, Research Finds Tax Season: Time to Help the Lone…
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    Eschaton

  • Friday night

    17 Apr 2015 | 6:22 pm
    Watching all the Eurovision videos as one does.
  • No More Mandatory 21-Year-Old Drinking Age

    17 Apr 2015 | 3:26 pm
    This "no federal coercion" arguments are going to just get loopier and loopier.(I think a feds-imposed 21-year-old drinking age is stupid, but don't think there are any good legal arguments based on coercion.)...adding, after checking, the Court in Sebelius did actually try to separate the decision from the drinking age case explicitly, but gibberishly.
  • Happy Hour

    17 Apr 2015 | 2:00 pm
    Friday edition.
  • Let Them Dumpster Dive

    17 Apr 2015 | 12:18 pm
    I know its standard blogger lingo to refer to Simpson-Bowles as the 'catfood commission' and to portray efforts to cut Social Security as a desire to put granny on a Meow Mix diet, but the truth is that catfood is expensive! It's really a plot to turn granny into a dumpster diver, to make her fight with the squirrels for discarded fried chicken from Popeye's (yes, the local squirrels do, in fact, sit on my back porch and eat fried chicken).Few people have pensions or significant retirement accounts. Plenty of people, especially those with jobs that actually require physical labor, can't…
  • Trying Not To Annoy You

    17 Apr 2015 | 11:04 am
    I admit I don't like to think too much about the "business" side of this blog, but I have deliberately resisted throwing up the increasingly annoying ads that all the big sites have now. I doubt a single product has ever been sold due to an auto-on video/audio ad or a pop-up type thing that covers up the whole page and forces you to play a "where's Waldo" find the tiny X game to get rid of it, but those are the innovations in internet advertising that are all the rage. I have no idea if I'd bring in more ad money by incorporating such things, but I'm not even going to try (I think some bad…
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Gigerenzer on logical rationality vs. ecological rationality

    Andrew
    17 Apr 2015 | 6:54 am
    I sent my post about the political implication of behavioral economics, embodied cognition, etc., to Gerd Gigerenzer, who commented as follows: The “half-empty” versus “half-full” explanation of the differences between Kahneman and us misses the essential point: the difference is about the nature of the glass of rationality, not the level of the water. For Kahneman, rationality is logical rationality, defined as some content-free law of logic or probability; for us, it is ecological rationality, loosely speaking, the match between a heuristic and its environment. For…
  • Perhaps the most contextless email I’ve ever received

    Andrew
    16 Apr 2015 | 6:52 am
    Date: February 3, 2015 at 12:55:59 PM EST Subject: Sample Stats Question From: ** Hello, I hope all is well and trust that you are having a great day so far. I hate to bother you but I have a stats question that I need help with: How can you tell which group has the best readers when they have the following information: Group A-130, 140, 170,170, 190, 200, 215, 225, 240, 250 Group B- 188, 189, 193, 193, 193, 194, 194, 195, 195, 196 Group A-mean (193), median (195), mode (170) Group B- mean (193), median(193.5), mode (193) Why? This is for my own personal use and understanding of this subkject…
  • Item-response and ideal point models

    Andrew
    15 Apr 2015 | 9:40 am
    To continue from today’s class, here’s what we’ll be discussing next time: - Estimating the direction and the magnitude of the discrimination parameters. - How to tell when your data don’t fit the model. - When does ideal-point modeling make a difference? Comparing ideal-point estimates to simple averages of survey responses. P.S. Unlike the previous post, this time I really am referring to the class we had this morning. The post Item-response and ideal point models appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • A message I just sent to my class

    Andrew
    15 Apr 2015 | 6:24 am
    I wanted to add some context to what we talked about in class today. Part of the message I was sending was that there are some stupid things that get published and you should be careful about that: don’t necessarily believe something, just cos it’s statistically significant and published in a top journal. And, sure, that’s true, I’ve seen lots of examples of bad studies that get tons of publicity. But that shouldn’t really be the #1 point you get from my class. This is how I want you to think about today’s class: Consider 3 different ways in which you will…
  • “For better or for worse, academics are fascinated by academic rankings . . .”

    Andrew
    14 Apr 2015 | 6:23 am
    I was asked to comment on a forthcoming article, “Statistical Modeling of Citation Exchange Among Statistics Journals,” by Christiano Varin, Manuela Cattelan and David Firth. Here’s what I wrote: For better or for worse, academics are fascinated by academic rankings, perhaps because most of us reached our present positions through a series of tournaments, starting with course grades and standardized tests and moving through struggles for the limited resource of publication space in top journals, peer-reviewed grant funding, and finally, the unpredictable process of citation…
 
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    macroblog

  • Déjà Vu All Over Again

    macroblog
    17 Apr 2015 | 9:07 am
    In a recent interview, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said, “The first quarter was poor. That seems to be a new seasonal pattern. It's been that way for about four of the last five years.” The picture below illustrates the vice chair's sentiment. Output in the first quarter has grown at a paltry 0.6 percent during the past five years, compared to a 2.9 percent average during the remaining three quarters of the year. What's causing this pattern? Well, it could be we just get really unlucky at the same time every year. Or, it could be a more technical problem with seasonal…
  • Is Measurement Error a Likely Explanation for the Lack of Productivity Growth in 2014?

    macroblog
    6 Apr 2015 | 2:10 pm
    Over the past three years nonfarm business sector labor productivity growth has averaged only around 0.75 percent—well below historical norms. In 2014 it was negative, as can be seen in chart 1. (enlarge) The previous macroblog post by Atlanta Fed economist John Robertson looked at possible economic explanations for why the labor productivity data, taken at face value, have been relatively weak in recent years. In this post I look at the extent to which “measurement error” can account for the weakness we have seen in the data. By measurement error, I mean incomplete data…
  • What Seems to Be Holding Back Labor Productivity Growth, and Why It Matters

    macroblog
    2 Apr 2015 | 12:35 pm
    The Atlanta Fed recently released its online Annual Report. In his video introduction to the report, President Dennis Lockhart explained that the economic growth we have experienced in recent years has been driven much more by growth in hours worked (primarily due to employment growth) than by growth in the output produced per hour worked (so-called average labor productivity). For example, over the past three years, business sector output growth averaged close to 3 percent a year. Labor productivity growth accounted for only about 0.75 percentage point of these output gains. The rest was due…
  • Signs of Improvement in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation

    macroblog
    6 Mar 2015 | 8:18 am
    This morning's job report provided further evidence of a stabilizing labor force participation (LFP) rate. After falling over 3 percentage points since 2008, LFP has been close to 62.9 percent of the population for the past seven months. Although demographics and behavioral trends explain much of the overall decline (our web page on LFP dynamics gives a full account), there is a cyclical component at work as well. In particular, the labor force attachment of "prime-age" (25 to 54 year olds) individuals to the labor force is something we're watching closely. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta…
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    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • Note on Laffer curves

    chris
    17 Apr 2015 | 6:05 am
    Tim and Richard have been having an argument about Laffer curves. Here, in no particular order, are my notes on the matter. 1. There are (at least) two Laffer curves - one that relates top tax rates to GDP, and on that relates them to tax revenues. The two probably do not coincide. For example, if a top earner responds to higher taxes by continuing to work but by dodging tax, GDP is unaffected but revenues fall. For this reason, the revenue-maximizing top rate is probably lower than the GDP-maximizing rate. To this extent, Richard is right to stress the importance of tax dodging. As Alan…
  • Forecasting vs explaining

    chris
    16 Apr 2015 | 7:14 am
    There's a big difference between forecasting and explaining. This is one point which I fear is being under-emphasized in the culture war about the state of macroeconomics. Critics often infer that the discipline failed because it didn't foresee the crisis. It's certainly the case that few people saw the crisis coming. For example, only one forecaster of those surveyed by the Treasury in March 2008 foresaw a fall in GDP in 2009 - and he had also, wrongly, forecast weak growth in 2005 and 2006. UK economists weren't alone here: US forecasters also failed to see the recession…
  • The problem with promises

    chris
    14 Apr 2015 | 6:16 am
    "He who fights with monsters should be careful lest he thereby become a monster." Labour's manifesto reminded me of these famous words of Friedrich Nietzsche. It begins thus: A Labour government will cut the deficit every year. The first line of Labour’s first Budget will be: “This Budget cuts the deficit every year.” This is, of course, silly. It amounts to a promise to tighten fiscal policy even if the economy weakens. The statement could be rewritten: "if a recession occurs, we'll make it worse." Granted, few people expect a recession in the next five…
  • A positive Conservative agenda

    chris
    10 Apr 2015 | 5:59 am
    The anti-Miliband campaign seems to have backfired: it's created an image of someone who is both weak and ruthless and a nerd and a shagger - which betokens a certain confusion. Some on the left, though, believe the Tories have had no option but to use such negative campaigning. Phil says: When your coming manifesto promises little more than demented and unnecessary cuts, a possible EU exit, and precious little else the Tories have already lost the politics. This poses the question: what might a more positive Tory platform look like? If I were Cameron, I'd stress three elements.
  • Happiness policy, & growth

    chris
    9 Apr 2015 | 5:05 am
    There's a lot that we've not seen so far in this election campaign. One of the many absences has been any discussion of happiness policy. This is odd, given that back in 2006 Mr Cameron said: Improving our society's sense of well-being is, I believe, the central political challenge of our times. You might that the financial crisis overturned this belief. Perhaps it shouldn't have, because well-being might be one solution to slow growth. Some new research claims: Average local happiness is positively correlated with both R&D intensity and firm investment after…
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    Moneybox

  • Justice Department Likely to Recommend Blocking Comcast-Time Warner Cable Merger

    Alison Griswold
    17 Apr 2015 | 3:13 pm
    Lawyers at the Justice Department are getting ready to recommend blocking Comcast’s proposed $45.2 billion bid to merge with Time Warner Cable, sources “familiar with the matter” tell Bloomberg. The staff attorneys will reportedly submit their review of the deal as early as next week. From there, the Justice Department will decide whether to file a federal lawsuit to block the buyout. From Bloomberg: The Justice Department lawyers have been contacting outside parties in the last few weeks to shore up evidence to support a potential case against the merger, one of the people said.
  • Poor Children May Have Smaller Brains Than Rich Children. Does That Tell Us Anything?

    Jordan Weissmann
    17 Apr 2015 | 2:59 pm
    Social scientists have found that by the time children enter kindergarten, there is already a large academic achievement gap between students from wealthy and poor families. We still don't know exactly why that's the case. There's a sense that it at least partly has to do with the fact that affluent mothers and fathers have more intensive parenting sytles—they're more likely to read to their kids, for instance—and have enough money to make sure their toddlers grow up well-nourished, generally cared for, and intellectually stimulated. At the same time, poor children often grow up in…
  • AmEx’s Terrible Year Is Getting Even Worse

    Alison Griswold
    17 Apr 2015 | 10:34 am
    American Express shares are plunging after the company reported first-quarter revenue below expectations Thursday afternoon. The slump doesn’t bode well for AmEx, which could really use a bit of good news. AmEx took a big hit in February after announcing that its 16-year partnership with Costco would come to an end. The news caught investors by surprise, and on Feb. 12 the stock tumbled 6.4 percent or $5.53, its biggest single-day percentage loss since August 2011. With shares already off 5 percent on earnings, Friday is shaping up to be another ugly trading session for AmEx, as you can see…
  • Etsy Waited 10 Years to Go Public. Is That Slow or Fast?

    Ilan Mochari
    17 Apr 2015 | 9:31 am
    This post originally appeared in Inc. Etsy's IPO was roughly 10 years in the making. Is that a long time or a short time?  Not surprisingly, the answer depends on which set of initial public offering data you look at—and how you look at it. For example: A glance at the historical chart from Renaissance Capital, manager of IPO-focused ETFs, reveals that 10 years is actually the average age of all 63 companies that have filed for IPOs so far in 2015.  Not only that, but the average age of 10 years is the youngest average age in recent years—by far:  Year  …
  • Which Workers Are the Most Depressed?

    Jordan Weissmann
    16 Apr 2015 | 3:05 pm
    Gallup recently decided to rank the occupations in which workers are most likely to suffer from depression. The takeaway: Your boss is probably in a pretty decent psychological place. Managers, executives, and officials were the least likely to have ever been diagnosed with depression. The clerical and office staff who toil beneath them, on the other hand, were diagnosed at somewhat higher rates. Meanwhile, workers in manufacturing or service industries were the most likely to have ever been depressed. The drudgery of clocking in on an assembly line or at a cash register apparently takes a…
 
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    Economic Development Blog » Economic Development Blog -

  • Iowa Approves Economic Development Incentives for $1B Google Data Center Expansion in Council Bluffs

    Economic Development HQ.com
    17 Apr 2015 | 8:46 am
    Google Inc. is planning yet another expansion of its data center operations in Council Bluffs, IA. The board of the Iowa Economic Development Authority just approved additional incentives for this latest expansion. Google (photo- Nyshita talluri/wikimedia) This time, Google is planning to invest another $1 billion into its data center operations in Council Bluffs. This will bring its total investment in Council Bluffs to $2.5 billion. It makes the Google data center project not only the largest Council Bluffs economic development project, but also the largest one in Iowa, eclipsing the…
  • Queen Anne’s, Maryland Economic Development Incentives Support PRS Guitars Expansion

    Economic Development HQ.com
    16 Apr 2015 | 10:59 pm
    Paul Reed Smith Guitars, guitar maker for rock stars and celebrity artists, is once again expanding its operations in Stevensville, MD. PRS Guitars (photo – prsguitars.com) Supported by Queen Anne’s County and Maryland economic development grants, PRS Guitars will introduce a new line of acoustic guitars and create 20 new full-time jobs over the next three years. Stevensville, MD-based PRS Guitars is already the largest full-time private employer in Queen Anne’s County, and has committed to stay put in the county for at least the next 10 years. The company is getting…
  • BFC Partners Breaks Ground on Empire Outlets – Staten Island’s Largest Economic Development Project

    Economic Development HQ.com
    16 Apr 2015 | 10:10 pm
    BFC Partners has broken ground on Empire Outlets, a catalytic 340,000-square-foot retail complex on Staten Island’s North Shore that will create more than 1,800 jobs and generate $285 million in private investment. Empire Outlets is the largest Staten Island economic development project since the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge was built. Video – Empire Outlets The catalytic Empire Outlets project, billed as NYC’s first outlet destination, is one of the core components of the $1 billion private investment that is being poured into the revitalization of Staten’s Island North…
  • Kaiser Permanente to Open IT Center in Atlanta With 900 High Tech Jobs

    Economic Development HQ.com
    16 Apr 2015 | 8:03 am
    Leading health care provider Kaiser Permanente is opening a new information technology campus in Midtown Atlanta. Kaiser Permanente (photo – Coolcaesar/wikipedia) The company will invest millions of dollars into the project to establish the 157,000-square-foot campus where it expects to bring 900 high technology jobs by 2019. These are high-wage jobs with average annual wages exceeding $100,000. According to IMPLAN analysis results provided by Atlanta economic development authority Invest Atlanta, the project will have an estimated economic impact of more than $363.9 million. Mayor…
  • Wells Fargo Seeks Delaware Economic Development Incentives For New Castle Expansion

    Economic Development HQ.com
    16 Apr 2015 | 3:45 am
    At its next meeting, the Delaware Economic Development Authority’s Council on Development Finance will hold a public hearing on applications by business expansion and relocation projects seeking financial assistance. Wells Fargo HQ (photo – Laimerpramer/wikipedia) The projects seeking assistance include Advanced Materials Technology, Inc.; Wells Fargo Bank; and Zacros America, Inc. Wells Fargo Bank is planning to relocate 80 employees from out of state to New Castle County, DE and then create another 100 jobs, adding up to a total of 180 new jobs for Delaware. The bank is…
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    Washington Center for Equitable Growth

  • Must-Read: Ricardo J. Caballero and Emmanuel Farhi: The Safety Trap

    Brad DeLong
    17 Apr 2015 | 4:04 pm
    Must-Read: Ricardo J. Caballero and Emmanuel Farhi: The Safety Trap: “In this paper we provide a model of the macroeconomic consequences of a shortage of safe assets… In particular, we discuss the emergence of a deflationary safety trap equilibrium which is an acute form of a liquidity trap. In this context, issuing public debt, swapping private risky assets for public debt, or increasing the inflation target, stimulate aggregate demand and output, while forward guidance is ineffective. The safety trap can be arbitrarily persistent, as in the secular stagnation hypothesis, despite…
  • Afternoon Seminar: Genevieve Kenney on Medicare and Medicaid

    Brad DeLong
    17 Apr 2015 | 3:37 pm
    http://hrms.urban.org/briefs/Gains-in-Health-Insurance-Coverage-under-the-ACA-as-of-March-2015.html Thank you for a wonderful talk. A comment, and a question: The comment: I have long had a bone to pick with Amy Finkelstein and company and their Oregon Medicaid study. They use “significant” in two different ways in their paper. Improvements in blood pressure and in blood sugar levels in their study were not statistically significant. Not a lot of people in the sample had high blood pressure or high blood sugar, and so the drops seen were not big enough to be confident in a statistical…
  • Must-Read: Frances Coppola: Colds, Strokes and Brad Delong

    Brad DeLong
    17 Apr 2015 | 9:21 am
    Must-Read: Frances Coppola: Colds, Strokes and Brad Delong: “In 2008 the economy did not catch a cold. No, it had a stroke… …The authorities did not recognise the stroke… thought it was simply a particularly nasty cold… put extra whisky in the hot toddies…. Just as the patient was beginning to show signs of improvement, it experienced a second stroke. This one was not as catastrophic as the first, but it seriously set back the patient’s recovery. Once again, the stroke was misdiagnosed, this time as a hospital-acquired infection…. Now, seven…
  • Must-Read: Eric Lonergan: Bond bubbles, MMT, and the Limits to Fiscal Policy

    Brad DeLong
    17 Apr 2015 | 9:16 am
    Must-Read: Eric Lonergan: Bond bubbles, MMT, and the Limits to Fiscal Policy: “Most of what [MMTers] say about fiscal policy seems broadly correct… …The constraints on fiscal policy are determined by two factors: 1) can you print your own money, and 2) is unemployment already so low that fiscal stimulus is inflationary…. One of the things I dislike about the unthinking obsession with “expectations” in today’s monetary policy discourse is the suggestion that “inflation expectations” can suddenly–out of nowhere–go haywire. This a bit like the idea…
  • Must-Read: Richard Mayhew: A Real Problem with the ACA

    Brad DeLong
    17 Apr 2015 | 9:12 am
    Must-Read: Richard Mayhew: A Real Problem with the ACA: “Dan Diamond: Hospital mergers, by year: 2005: 50 deals. 2009: 50 deals. 2014: 102 deals.
 
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    FiveThirtyEight » Economics | FiveThirtyEight

  • Where Your State Gets Its Money

    Ben Casselman
    16 Apr 2015 | 1:03 pm
    Vermont and New Hampshire are similar in a lot of ways — they’re both small, heavily rural New England states that root for the Red Sox. But when it comes to taxes, they could hardly be more different. Vermont is one of the nation’s highest-tax states on a per capita basis; New Hampshire is the lowest. Where they get that tax revenue is different, too: Vermont relies heavily on broad-based income and property taxes. New Hampshire gets much of its revenue from targeted taxes on cigarettes, gasoline and other items, as well as taxes on businesses.Across the country, states vary widely…
  • Why Millennials Are Less Urban Than You Think

    Jed Kolko
    7 Apr 2015 | 11:30 am
    Are millennials increasingly living in cities? If you’re a young college graduate in Brooklyn, that sounds like a stupid question. Between 2000 and 2013, the share of adults living in Brooklyn who were 25 to 34 years old and had bachelor’s degrees rose 50 percent. Same in Washington, D.C. Does this mean that millennials, more than earlier generations, want dense, walkable neighborhoods, rather than a house in the suburbs — especially after watching Gen Xers suffer in the foreclosure crisis after last decade’s housing bubble burst?While 25- to 29-year-olds are the age group most…
  • The Tax Deductions Economists Hate

    Ben Casselman
    3 Apr 2015 | 3:03 am
    If you’ve already filed your tax return,7 chances are you spent time (or paid someone else to spend it) poring over the forms looking for deductions and credits. Have a mortgage? Deduction. Pay state income tax? Deduction. Move for a job? Deduction.For most taxpayers, every deduction feels like a little victory, victories that can add up to thousands of dollars. But economists have a different reaction. They would get rid of many — maybe even most — of those deductions. They don’t call it the “dismal science” for nothing.8Economists aren’t coming for your deductions…
  • Big Government Is Getting In The Way Of Big Data

    Ben Casselman
    9 Mar 2015 | 3:03 am
    When the government wants to know how many people are unemployed, it calls people and asks them whether they’re working. When it wants to know how quickly prices are rising, it sends researchersto stores to check price tags. And when it wants to know how much consumers are spending, it mails forms to thousands of retailers asking about their sales.“Big data” may have revolutionized industries from advertising to transportation, but many of our most vital economic statistics are still based on methods that are decidedly, well, small.Now economists both inside and outside government are…
  • Bad News For The Class Of 2008

    Andrew Flowers
    2 Mar 2015 | 5:16 am
    Timing is everything. And for Joe Moser the timing was bad.He graduated from the University of Iowa’s law school in 2011, one of the worst years to graduate from law school ever. He worked as a bartender in St. Louis, Missouri, while applying for jobs. It took about a year for him to land his first, with a small law firm. While he was glad to be working on cases instead of mixing drinks, he wasn’t happy with his paycheck.“Starting out, I was earning less than anticipated, but I just counted myself fortunate to have gotten a job at all,” said Moser, now 29 and an attorney with…
 
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    Vox - All

  • Here's the official Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice trailer

    Alex Abad-Santos
    17 Apr 2015 | 5:22 pm
    The trailer to Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice leaked to file-sharing sites late Thursday, April 16. Warner Bros., the studio that produced the film, went on the offensive and shut down YouTube videos. The trailer was supposed to be released on Monday, April 20. The leak was taped off of a movie screen. The captions on it appear to be in Portuguese. The start of the leaked trailer actually shows the trailer's end, suggesting it's playing on a loop while movie theater employees check it for sound and picture. This isn't unlike what happened to Marvel's Avengers: Age of…
  • Vox Sentences: Arizona made it really hard to fix Obamacare if the Supreme Court breaks it

    German Lopez
    17 Apr 2015 | 5:00 pm
    Welcome to Vox Sentences, our news bulletin breaking down the day's biggest stories. 1. Republican states against Obamacare (Alex Wong/Getty Images) Arizona passed a bizarre law that effectively bans the state from setting up its own health insurance exchange through Obamacare. [The Arizona Republic / Ken Alltucker] The law is very clearly aimed as a response to an upcoming Supreme Court decision that could kill the federally run insurance marketplaces Arizona and 33 other states currently use. [Vox / Sarah Kliff] About 205,000 Arizonans get insurance through the federal marketplace; if the…
  • Why Oklahoma is allowing the gas chamber for executions

    German Lopez
    17 Apr 2015 | 4:35 pm
    The future of executions in Oklahoma may not be lethal injections, but rather a nitrogen gas chamber that asphyxiates prisoners to death. On Friday, Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin authorized the use of nitrogen hypoxia for the death penalty if its primary form of executions, lethal injection, is ruled unconstitutional or becomes unavailable due to a drug shortage. The state isn't the first to resort to grim execution methods this year. In March, Utah became one of the few states to allow firing squads for executions after Gov. Gary Herbert signed a law approving the controversial…
  • Jeb Bush endorses "death panels" — and he's right to do so

    Ezra Klein
    17 Apr 2015 | 12:30 pm
    The dumbest controversy of Obamacare, by far, was when Sarah Palin took an anodyne provision directing Medicare to cover end-of-life care consultations and branded it a "death panel." Senator Johnny Isakson, a Georgia Republican who had backed the idea, was unsparing. "How someone could take an end-of-life directive or a living will as that is nuts," he said. PolitiFact gave Palin its coveted "Lie of the Year" award. But Palin won. The provision was deleted from the bill. And politicians learned to fear any discussion of end-of-life care, even though roughly 30 percent of Medicare's spending…
  • 5 questions about the leaked Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice trailer

    Alex Abad-Santos
    17 Apr 2015 | 12:20 pm
    The Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice trailer can't be put back in the bottle. The dark, gritty trailer went viral after it was leaked last night. And we have some questions for the marketing team at Warner Bros. (which is making this movie), as well as some questions about the movie that we can't stop asking after watching the leaked trailer. 1) Where is the high-quality version? Batman v. Superman isn't the first trailer to be leaked, nor will it be the last. Companies usually have contingency plans to deal with said leaks. It seems Warner Bros.' strategy is to sit back and play…
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    Commentary - Money, Banking and Financial Markets

  • Interview with Adair Turner

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    16 Apr 2015 | 5:39 am
    Senior Fellow, Institute for New Economic Thinking; former Chairman, U.K. Financial Services Authority; and former Chairman, Financial Stability Board Standing Committee on Supervisory and Regulatory Cooperation. Has the experience of the crisis changed your view of the central bank policy tool kit?Chairman Turner: Yes. A lot. The pre-crisis orthodoxy defined central banks to a very significant extent as having one primary objective – low and stable inflation (with some countries in addition including a broad employment mandate) – and one policy tool, the policy interest rate. I think…
  • The mythic quest for early warnings

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    13 Apr 2015 | 5:40 am
    Economists and policymakers are on a quest. They are looking for the elixir that will protect their economies from financial crises. Their strategy is to find an indicator that provides an early warning of collapse, and then respond with preventative measures.We think the approach of waiting for warnings is seriously flawed. The necessary information may never be in our grasp. And even if it were, our ability to respond rapidly and effectively is far from clear. Rather than treating the symptoms of illness after they start to develop, we believe the better strategy is early immunization: the…
  • Zero matters

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    6 Apr 2015 | 5:56 am
    The invention of the number zero transformed mathematics and laid the foundations for modern science. Zero is the additive identity (any number plus zero equals itself). It separates the positive and negative numbers. For a celebration of zero, see here.Zero matters in economics, too. Zero growth separates cyclical expansions and contractions. We need zeroes to measure the trillions of dollars of GDP, and even more zeroes to measure hyperinflations (during the record Hungarian inflation of 1945-46, the quantity of currency in circulation grew to a number with 27…
  • Interview with Otmar Issing

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    2 Apr 2015 | 3:30 am
    President, Center for Financial Studies, Goethe University; former member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank; former member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank.Has the experience of the crisis changed your view of the central bank policy tool kit?Professor Issing: I would like to start by going back to the beginning of the ECB in 1998. The Maastricht Treaty gives the ECB the freedom to design its own instruments. There are almost no restrictions. By contrast, in the Bundesbank, everything was regulated in detail; what was not explicitly allowed in the law, the…
  • Is 2% still the solution?

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    30 Mar 2015 | 5:27 am
    The debate over the appropriate level for a central bank’s inflation objective reminds us of a 40-year-old Sherlock Holmes movie called “The Seven-Per-Cent Solution.” Convinced that Holmes’ addiction to cocaine (the solution in the title) had made him delusional, Watson took the master sleuth to Vienna to be treated by Sigmund Freud.Has the 2% solution for inflation targeting in advanced economies made central bankers similarly delusional? Are they stubbornly attached to an outdated target? That argument gained ground in recent years as policymakers in Europe, Japan, and the United…
 
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    Republic 3.0

  • The federal government’s worsening millennial talent gap

    Anne Kim
    15 Apr 2015 | 2:00 am
    Outdated hiring practices are to blame, says Partnership for Public Service President Max Stier. The post The federal government’s worsening millennial talent gap appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • A better measure of poverty

    Republic 3.0
    14 Apr 2015 | 2:00 am
    A better measure of poverty will also mean better government. The post A better measure of poverty appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • Is it time to revisit a carbon tax?

    Michael Purzycki
    13 Apr 2015 | 2:00 am
    A carbon tax might be the best way to combat climate change while raising revenue for the investments we need. The post Is it time to revisit a carbon tax? appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • 2016 GOP contenders play to their base – but risk losing moderate voters

    Stefan Hankin
    9 Apr 2015 | 2:00 am
    Conservative stances on immigration, climate change and Obamacare could cost Republicans next November. The post 2016 GOP contenders play to their base – but risk losing moderate voters appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • Bright lights, enterprising cities — A model for development

    Francisco J. Sanchez
    8 Apr 2015 | 2:00 am
    Developing economies should seize the opportunity presented by the convergence of two forces — rapid urbanization and technological innovation. The post Bright lights, enterprising cities — A model for development appeared first on Republic 3.0.
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    Principles of Economics and Business

  • The Price Elasticity of Supply

    13 Apr 2015 | 12:24 pm
    According to the law of supply and demand the quantity supplied of a good or service will generally decrease as its price falls. To see how strong this effect actually is, we can once again draw on the concept of elasticity. In particular, we use the price elasticity of supply.The most relevant supply side elasticity is the price elasticity of supply. It describes to what extent the quantity supplied of a good is affected by a change in its price. Not surprisingly, there are various factors that influence the elasticity so it seems reasonable to look at the most relevant determinants…
  • The Price Elasticity of Demand

    27 Mar 2015 | 9:55 am
    According to the law of supply and demand the quantity demanded of a good or service will generally increase if its price falls. To see how strong this effect actually is we use the concept of elasticity. More specifically, the price elasticity of demand.Depending on what we are analyzing there are different demand elasticities that can be considered (e.g. price elasticity, cross-prize elasticity, income elasticity). The most relevant of them is the price elasticity of demand which describes to what extent the quantity demanded of a good is affected by a change in its price. There are many…
  • Comparative Advantage and Trade

    12 Mar 2015 | 2:53 pm
    We live in a globalized world where virtually all countries interact and engage in trade. Most of them have various trade connections with a multitude of different countries. As a consequence, there is a significant amount of competition. This raises the question how smaller countries with relatively weak economies can still participate and benefit from global trade.To explain this we will look at the principle of comparative advantage, one of the most basic microeconomic concepts. Even though it is a rather simple concept, it will allow us to analyze some of the most fundamental processes…
  • 10 Principles of Economics You Should Know [Infographic]

    27 Feb 2015 | 9:20 am
    Economics is a critical part of our life. Almost everything we do is in one way or the other connected to it. Whether we go to work in the morning, buy something to eat for lunch, or simply sit at home and watch TV in the evening, there is always a multitude of economic principles at play.Thus being familiar with the most fundamental of those principles can be extremely helpful, Not only will it help you to understand what is going on in the world around but it will also enable you to take well-informed and better decisions which is vitally important in all part of life. With this…
  • Diminishing Marginal Utility

    15 Feb 2015 | 12:49 pm
    The concept of marginal utility is one of the most fundamental principles of economics. It describes the additional satisfaction an individual gets from consuming one more unit of a good or service. This information is critical for predicting and explaining consumption decisions.Although actual utility cannot be measured in hard numbers, it is possible to reveal consumer preferences, tendencies, and other relevant aspects that are critical for decision making. However to be able to do this, we must first look at the principle in some more detail. Thinking at the marginFirst of all, to…
 
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    Innovative Advisory Group

  • These Top 7 Powerful Tools Can Create Legacy Wealth from Real Estate

    Kirk Chisholm
    10 Apr 2015 | 8:00 am
    These Top 7 Powerful Tools Can Create Legacy Wealth from Real Estate “Buying real estate is not only the best way, the quickest way, the safest way, but the only way to become wealthy.”  - Marshall Field Marshall Field was an American Entrepreneur who lived in the 1800's. His quote was obviously made in an era before tech stocks, hedge funds and excess money printing by the Federal Reserve. However the principal of owning real estate to become wealthy still holds true. Real Estate is arguably the best asset class if you want to build enormous wealth. While you may have heard of real…
  • Inflation Monitor – March 2015

    Kirk Chisholm
    23 Mar 2015 | 9:40 am
    Inflation Monitor – March 2015 Inflation Deflation Composite Ranking   * The Inflation Equilibrium is a quick summary for the whole data series of the inflation monitor. If you don't like statistics, this is the chart for you.   Inflation Monitor - March 2015 - Introduction It is March and as of today spring is finally here. It doesn't feel like spring. I only hope that the weather warms up so I don;t have to wear a winter parka in April. Boston finally broke the record for snowfall this year with 108.6 Inches. The prior record was 107.9 inches in 1872. This broken record…
  • Are Negative Interest Rates in America’s Future?

    Kirk Chisholm
    15 Mar 2015 | 5:47 am
    Are Negative Interest Rates in America’s Future? “ “Risk-free return” is the standard tag attached to the government’s solemn obligations. An investor I know, repulsed by prevailing government yields, has a timelier description – “return-free risk”."    - Jim Grant How absurd are negative interest rates? Two weeks ago in Denmark, news spread about the first person to get a business loan and get paid by the bank to do so. Eva Christiansen, and entrepreneur, earns about 1$ a month from a business loan she took out to grow her business. Let that sink in for a few minutes.
  • A Visual History of Income Inequality in the US

    Kirk Chisholm
    5 Mar 2015 | 4:46 am
    A Visual History of Income Inequality in the US   Income Inequality in America NPR put out some great images on income inequality recently. They describe the history of income inequality in the US in a way you might not have considered. Many statistics are hard to interpret, but these aren't. At first glance you might immediately jump to the conclusion that the bottom 90% of income earners have gotten squeezed since 1970. However if you look at the entire chart, it might put things into a different perspective. Read More... For more great content visit Innovative Advisory Group -…
  • Proof That Share Buybacks are a Powerful Strategy for Building Wealth

    Kirk Chisholm
    26 Feb 2015 | 4:19 am
    Proof That Share Buybacks are a Powerful Strategy for Building Wealth The Curious Case of IBM Share Buybacks This is an overlay chart of IBM's stock price and its market cap since 2000. Do you notice anything interesting about this chart? Look closer... The stock price and market cap have performed differently. How can that be? Aren't they the same? While the stock price and market cap are highly correlated, they are not the same. Stock price - The stock price is the listed price based on what buyers and sellers are willing to pay for it. Market (cap) capitalization - The market cap of a…
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    Hoosier Econ

  • Illegal Immigrants Getting Social Security Numbers Five Times Higher Than Expected

    Hoosier Econ
    16 Apr 2015 | 7:47 am
    Back in March TheBlaze.com reported two Senators asked the Social Security Administation how many social security numbers were issued to illegal immigrants under Barack Obama’s 2012 executive amensty plan. It was believed to be around 90,000. The Social Security administation answered with a shocking number and here is what TheBlaze.com reported: The Social Security Administration […]
  • Asset Value of Nonprofit’s

    Hoosier Econ
    15 Apr 2015 | 12:26 pm
    Tax day has hit America. The United States tax code is well over 70,000 pages long with special give aways that benefit many organizations. One of those being nonprofits. Here is some tax day information about nonprofits via StastiticBrain.com Number of nonprofit returns– 383,064 Assets controlled by nonprofit’s – $3.796 Trillion
  • JP Morgan Legal Costs

    Hoosier Econ
    14 Apr 2015 | 12:12 pm
    ZeroHedge posted this on their Twitter account but this shows how lawyers make billions off a highly regulated financial system via the government. JP Morgan has posted more than $36 billion in legal costs since the financial crisis — MineForNothing (@minefornothing) April 14, 2015
  • Price of Bull Semen

    Hoosier Econ
    14 Apr 2015 | 7:24 am
    AustinHeraldDaily.com had an interesting article about $70,000 worth of bull semen being stolen in Minnesota. The fascinating aspect of it was the price of bull semen being sold on the market. Here is a snapshot of the pricing. The canister was worth about $500, and the vials of semen were worth from $300 to $1,500 […]
  • Most Valuable Exports by State

    Hoosier Econ
    13 Apr 2015 | 1:53 pm
    H/T Washington Post
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