Economics

  • Most Topular Stories

  • The Weather Really Can Hold Back the Economy–It’s Not Just an Excuse

    Real Time Economics
    Josh Zumbrun
    26 Nov 2014 | 10:19 am
    Just in time for Thanksgiving, a winter storm is ruining travel plans. When the weather gets bad enough, not only does it ruin travel plans, it starts ruining economic data and forecasts. So far, there’s no reason to believe this winter’s storms will wreak exceptional havoc on the data. Because most winters feature some disruption, seasonally adjusting economic reports helps prevent every winter from reducing our visibility into the economy’s strength. But it’s worth remembering that unusually bad weather is not always an “excuse” for bad data–sometimes it really is just the…
  • Economics Indicators Dashboard

    The Big Picture
    Barry Ritholtz
    26 Nov 2014 | 9:00 am
    Here’s the monthly update from Russell:   click for interactive graphic Source: Russell Investments
  • Keynes Is Slowly Winning

    Paul Krugman
    By Paul Krugman
    26 Nov 2014 | 6:40 am
    In the long run, wrong ideas are sort of dead.
  • Thanksgiving and the economics of sharing

    Angry Bear
    Dan Crawford
    26 Nov 2014 | 8:31 am
    Dan here…this piece is originally published at Oxford University Press by Angry Bear Edward Lambert. by Edward Lambert Thanksgiving and the economics of sharing For this American, my favorite holiday has always been Thanksgiving. Why? I have an image in my mind of Native Americans and colonists meeting and sharing food together; they share knowledge […]
  • Links 11/26/14

    naked capitalism
    Yves Smith
    26 Nov 2014 | 3:55 am
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    Real Time Economics

  • The Weather Really Can Hold Back the Economy–It’s Not Just an Excuse

    Josh Zumbrun
    26 Nov 2014 | 10:19 am
    Just in time for Thanksgiving, a winter storm is ruining travel plans. When the weather gets bad enough, not only does it ruin travel plans, it starts ruining economic data and forecasts. So far, there’s no reason to believe this winter’s storms will wreak exceptional havoc on the data. Because most winters feature some disruption, seasonally adjusting economic reports helps prevent every winter from reducing our visibility into the economy’s strength. But it’s worth remembering that unusually bad weather is not always an “excuse” for bad data–sometimes it really is just the…
  • ECB’s Honohan Opposed Letter to Irish Government

    Paul Hannon
    26 Nov 2014 | 7:36 am
     Jean Claude Trichet informed Brian Lenihan that the ECB couldn’t authorize further loans to the Irish banks unless the government sought an international bailout.. Ireland’s central bank governor revealed on Wednesday that he had opposed a Nov. 2010 decision by the European Central Bank to send a letter to the Irish government threatening to withdraw support for the country’s stricken banks unless the government sought financial help from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. The ECB finally released the exchange of correspondence between then President Jean Claude…
  • Inflation Below 2% Fed Target for 30th Consecutive Month

    Jeffrey Sparshott and Ben Leubsdorf
    26 Nov 2014 | 7:09 am
    U.S. inflation remained below the Federal Reserve’s annual 2% target for the 30th consecutive month in October. The price index for personal consumption expenditures, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose 0.1% from September and is up 1.4% from a year earlier, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Excluding food and energy components, so-called “core” prices gained 0.2% over the month and are up 1.6% over the year. Overall annual inflation was unchanged from September, while core inflation is firming, though only slowly. It was 1.5% year over year in September. The Fed has set…
  • Grand Central: New York Fed Declares Household Deleveraging Over

    WSJ Staff
    26 Nov 2014 | 4:16 am
    The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Wednesday, November 26, 2014: Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup Highlights Hilsenrath’s Take: New York Fed Declares Household Deleveraging Over ECB Prepared to Buy Sovereign Bonds Early Next Year, Says Constancio Federal Reserve Proposes New Regulations for GE Capital Regulators Okay Wells Fargo Plan on Theoretical Bankruptcy All Quiet on the Fed Discount Rate Front HILSENRATH’S TAKE: NEW YORK FED DECLARES HOUSEHOLD DELEVERAGING OVER The Federal Reserve Bank of New York quietly marked the…
  • South Korean Firms Turn to China

    Tom Wright
    25 Nov 2014 | 5:10 pm
    South Korean companies like Samsung Electronics are facing challenges in China from cheaper local rivals who are copying their technology. Samsung, for instance, has lost smartphone market share to Chinese producer Xiaomi Inc. Woohae Cho/Bloomberg News In the late 1950s, South Korea was a poor country emerging from a devastating three-year civil war. Within a generation, the nation entered the ranks of rich nations, forging homegrown champions like Samsung Electronics Co. and Hyundai Motor Co. The U.S. had backed South Korea in the war and afterward became its largest trading partner, taking…
 
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    naked capitalism

  • 2:00PM Water Cooler 11/26/14

    Lambert Strether
    26 Nov 2014 | 10:59 am
    Today's Water Cooler: Ferguson and Occupy, Hillary Clinton's listening tour, oil industry PowerPoint deck, Shakespeare folio found.
  • Bill Black: The New York Times Thinks Jailing Banksters Would Cause a “Bind”

    Yves Smith
    26 Nov 2014 | 6:55 am
    Yves here. Bill Black continues to heap well-deserved scorn on efforts to defend New York Fed president William Dudley's revealing performance in Senate testimony last week. In its efforts to pretend that the New York Fed can't possibly be expected to regulate, the Grey Lady goes beyond the usual hoary canard that jailing banksters is just too hard (as in trying to say that what they perpetrated didn't break any laws, when plenty of writers, such as Charles Ferguson, long form in Predator Nation, and yours truly, among plenty of others, have cited both legal theories and fact sets that show…
  • Links 11/26/14

    Yves Smith
    26 Nov 2014 | 3:55 am
  • Germany and the European Commission’s €315 Billion Infrastructure “New Deal” is Yet More Smoke and Mirrors

    Yves Smith
    26 Nov 2014 | 2:22 am
    I have to confess I had not taken the announcement of a €315 billion infrastructure spending program by the European Commission all that seriously, despite the fact that this on the surface represented a very serious departure from the Troika's antipathy for anything resembling fiscal spending. It was so out of character that something had to be wrong with the picture, particularly given the absence of any evidence of Pauline conversions from the Germans. And that's before you get to the fact that while €315 billion sounds impressive, given that the spending is likely to be spread out…
  • “I Hate That Oil’s Dropping”: Why Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant Wants High Oil Prices for Fracking

    Yves Smith
    26 Nov 2014 | 12:29 am
    Yves here. We posted yesterday on how, despite falling oil prices having a ricochet effect across the entire energy complex, so far shale oil well shutdowns didn't appear to be proceeding at the expected pace. John Dizard of the Financial Times attributed continuing cash-flow-negative exploration and development to continued access to super-cheap funding. He also noted that even when fracking operators were cut off from their money pipeline, a new wave of speculators was likely to sweep in and try bottom-fishing among distressed companies. That meant that normal market discipline would be…
 
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    re: The Auditors

  • Piling Up For PwC

    Francine
    18 Nov 2014 | 3:48 pm
      Update for breaking news: The Wall Street Journal’s Michael Rapoport reports tonight that the PCAOB is looking into PwC’s tax advice to Caterpillar for auditor independence violations. The schemes were the subject of a hearing held last April by Senator Carl Levin where PwC partners made some embarrassing admissions. The regulator’s review dates back several months and hasn’t previously been reported. The review follows an April request from Sen. Carl Levin (D., Mich.) for the PCAOB to look at the matter after he alleged earlier this year that Caterpillar had deferred…
  • Luxembourg Tax Leaks Put PwC On The Defensive

    Francine
    13 Nov 2014 | 10:01 am
    The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) and its media partners released 28,000 Luxembourg tax ruling documents on November 5. These documents were all prepared by global audit firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) for 340 corporate clients – 548 comfort letters issued from 2002 to 2010.  The ICIJ and several other newspapers and magazines all over the world reported on the stories embedded in these documents. (The hashtag for Twitter for the ICIJ series is #LuxLeaks.) I was quoted in one of the stories that was translated to several languages for media outlets in…
  • Support This University of Notre Dame Accounting Grad Salary Survey!

    Francine
    11 Nov 2014 | 6:13 am
    Professor Jennifer Sustersic Stevens, PhD, CPA at Mendoza College of Business at the University of Notre Dame has asked me to post her request for your participation in a survey that will support important accounting research. Please complete the survey and I promise to report on the results when a working paper is published in the spring. My first job was at Continental Illinois National Bank and Trust in Chicago as a Financial Information Systems Training (FIST) Program trainee. After a fifteen week training program I went to internal audit, reviewing Personal Trusts that held alternative…
  • New At Forbes Online: The Precarious Financial Position Of The New York Times

    Francine
    11 Nov 2014 | 3:33 am
    Update: The New York Times Public Editor Margaret Sullivan published a column, “Shaky Times, Strong Journalism”, shortly after the 3rd Quarter earnings announcement with several critiques of the results and commentary.  My column in Forbes was cited. She said I provided a provided “a tough, and rather dire, analysis of the issues.” This post was originally published on October 29,2014. I published some New York Times numbers over at Forbes.com, “Time Is Running Short For The New York Times”, in anticipation of the company’s 3Q earnings announcement…
  • Update: The Shoemaker’s Children… The Big Four And Their Own Broker-Dealers

    Francine
    27 Oct 2014 | 6:24 am
    Did you know that each of the Big Four audit firms and some of the next tier also run SEC-registered broker-dealers? Although they don’t hold customer money, yet, they do count on the capital from their own partners to fund them. Given the poor record the auditors, all of them, have auditing broker-dealers, you’d imagine that the Big Four would take special care to make sure the audits of their own firms followed all the rules all the time and were of the highest quality, beyond reproach. You’d be imagining wrong. Update:  One of my loyal lawyer readers asked the salient…
 
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    The American Prospect

  • Cosby and Ferguson: Why Addressing Gender Violence and Racial Violence Is Not Either/Or Option

    Andrea Cambron
    26 Nov 2014 | 10:59 am
    (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast) Young women attend a candlelight vigil for victims of gun violence Friday, October 10, 2014, in Ferguson, Missouri.  I've never understood the "one or the other" mentality. Being a mother, I am in an ever present state of multi-tasking. So when a male acquaintance that the Cosby scandal was a a distraction from the grand jury decision regarding Ferguson, I inquired, "How?" He asserted that if the lead news story becomes Cosby, then Ferguson and the protests in response to the police violence there become a footnote to the issue of racial violence in the town.
  • Obama's Treasury Nominee Is a Wall Street Shill

    Robert Kuttner
    26 Nov 2014 | 12:24 am
    Flickr/Alex E. Proimos If you want to understand what makes Elizabeth Warren so special in American politics, consider her nervy leadership of the campaign to block President Barack Obama's foolish nomination of one Antonio Weiss to be the top Treasury official in charge of the domestic financial system, including enforcement of the Dodd-Frank Act. For most of his Wall Street career, Weiss has epitomized everything that reeks about financial abuses. As chief of international mergers and acquisitions for Lazard, Weiss orchestrated what are delicately known as "corporate inversions," in which a…
  • Chaos or Community? Ferguson's Aftermath Calls the Question

    Kevin Cokley
    25 Nov 2014 | 9:59 am
    As I watched the images of burning stores and looting in Ferguson, Missouri, Monday night, I was reminded of the 1965 Watts riots and the 1992 riots in Los Angeles. These uprisings, or rebellions, as they are referred to in certain activist circles, reflected simmering and justified rage beneath the surface of so many blacks. This special brand of rage is omnipresent and, at times, all-consuming. It rarely goes completely away. It becomes muted over time, but is always a Trayvon Martin or Michael Brown incident away from becoming fully combustible. The match in this case was the grand jury…
  • Iran Nuclear Talks Still Face Sabotage

    Matthew Duss
    25 Nov 2014 | 5:11 am
    One of the best and most predictive pieces of the 2008 presidential campaign was one by Michael Scherer and Michael Weisskopf, which examined the gambling styles of John McCain and Barack Obama, and what this suggested about their approaches to strategy. McCain, the craps enthusiast, was a risk- taker, ready to bet a thousand dollars on a single, luck-changing roll. This is the McCain we saw who tried to enliven his presidential campaign with the surprise selection of the comically unqualified Sarah Palin as his running mate and who tried to change the game by suspending his campaign in the…
  • Who Knew Cleveland Was Cool? Quite a Few Good Writers

    Amanda Teuscher
    24 Nov 2014 | 6:22 am
    (AP Photo/Mark Duncan, File) This Tuesday, September 11, 2012, file photo shows the Cleveland skyline taken from the city's Edgewater Park. When news outlets and websites write about the industrial Midwest, the coverage can vacillate between boosterism and “ruin porn,” often at the expense of telling compelling stories about the people and complexities of cities like Detroit, Cleveland, and Buffalo. Belt Magazine, an online publication based in Cleveland, just celebrated its first anniversary with the release of Dispatches from the Rust Belt, a collection of the magazine’s best content.
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    Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

  • For the (Super-Long) Weekend: the Ultimate Thanksgiving Movie Is: Addams Family Values

    J. Bradford DeLong
    26 Nov 2014 | 5:01 pm
  • Wednesday Cognitive Science Blogging: What Are the Odds Princeton's David Lewis Understands Probability Properly?

    J. Bradford DeLong
    26 Nov 2014 | 12:11 pm
    I know this is fairly dense. But please bear with me: David Lewis: Sleeping Beauty: Reply to Elga: "Researchers at the Experimental Philosophy Laboratory... Sleeping Beauty... ...On Sunday evening they will put her to sleep [P-]. On Monday they will awaken her briefly. At first they will not tell her what day it is [P], but later they will tell her that it is Monday [P+]. Then they will subject her to memory erasure. Perhaps they will again awaken her briefly on Tuesday... depend[ing] on the toss of a fair coin: if heads they will awaken her only on Monday, if tails they will awaken her on…
  • Liveblogging World War II: November 26, 1944: Eleanor Roosevelt

    J. Bradford DeLong
    26 Nov 2014 | 7:49 am
    Eleanor Roosevelt: My Day: Today is a peaceful day in the country. The usual occupations, a walk in the woods, much writing and reading, are all that I can report. As we read our newspapers today, I pray that the valor of our men in their determined attacks will finally discourage the enemy. These attacks are costing much in the way of ammunition, planes, guns, tanks, etc., as well as our boys' lives. It is for that reason that General Eisenhower begs the people at home not to let up in their production. Those of us who have sons on the fighting fronts realize what the work of the people at…
  • Legacy vs. Internet Media Once More: Live from La Farine

    J. Bradford DeLong
    25 Nov 2014 | 6:36 pm
    With respect to: Zumb: I've been thinking about what: "I don't doubt Shane's encounter with her former colleagues... ...but I still found the story a little bit off from what I've personally experienced.... Shane mentions that she thinks the pendulum is about to swing the other direction and she envisions talking to people at legacy organizations in a few years and saying 'You're still there? Really?!?!' I'd say 'You're still there? Really?!?!' has already probably been the single most common question anyone at a legacy news organization has gotten over the previous decade. The past decade…
  • Noted for Your Evening Procrastination for November 25, 2014

    J. Bradford DeLong
    25 Nov 2014 | 4:06 pm
    Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog European Economic Integration: The Rebalancing Challenge in Europe: Monday Focus A Question for Richard Koo: Daily Focus Over at Project Syndicate: Economic Growth and the Information Age: Daily Focus Lars E. O. Svensson: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Jonathan Cohn: Obama's Immigration Order: A Vote for American Exceptionalism Nicholas Bagley: Three Words and the Future of the Affordable Care Act Nick Bunker: Are big businesses slowing wage growth? Nick Bunker: An appreciation of Robert Solow Carter Price: What’s the link between corporate…
 
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    Calculated Risk

  • Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in October, Lowest since October 2008

    Bill McBride
    26 Nov 2014 | 5:21 pm
    Fannie Mae reported yesterday that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in October to 1.92% from 1.96% in September. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.48% in October 2013, and this is the lowest level since October 2008. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.Earlier this week, Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in October to 1.91% from 1.96% in September. Freddie's rate is down from 2.48% in September 2013, and is at the lowest level since December 2008. Freddie's serious delinquency…
  • Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index year-over-year change expected to slow further in October

    Bill McBride
    26 Nov 2014 | 12:47 pm
    The Case-Shiller house price indexes for September were released yesterday. Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shiller a month early - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.From Zillow: Oct. 2014 Case-Shiller Prediction: Expect the Slowdown to ContinueThe September S&P/Case-Shiller (SPCS) data out [yesterday] showed more slowing in the housing market, with annual growth in the 20-city index falling 0.7 percentage points from August’s pace to 4.9 percent in September. This is the first time annual appreciation for the 20-city index has been…
  • Comments on October New Home Sales

    Bill McBride
    26 Nov 2014 | 9:24 am
    The new home sales report for October was below expectations at 458 thousand on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Also, sales for the previous three months (July, August and September), were revised down. Sales this year are significantly below expectations, however, based on the low level of sales, more lots coming available, and demographics, it seems likely sales will continue to increase over the next several years.Earlier: New Home Sales at 458,000 Annual Rate in OctoberThe Census Bureau reported that new home sales this year, through October, were 371,000, Not seasonally…
  • New Home Sales at 458,000 Annual Rate in October

    Bill McBride
    26 Nov 2014 | 7:00 am
    The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 458 thousand. September sales were revised down from 467 thousand to 455 thousand, and August sales were revised down from 466 thousand to 453 thousand."Sales of new single-family houses in October 2014 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 458,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.7 percent above the revised September rate of 455,000 and is 1.8 percent above the October…
  • Personal Income increased 0.2% in October, Spending increased 0.2%

    Bill McBride
    26 Nov 2014 | 5:48 am
    The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for October: Personal income increased $32.9 billion, or 0.2 percent ... in October, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $27.3 billion, or 0.2 percent....Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.2 percent in October, in contrast to a decrease of less than 0.1 percent in September. ... The price index for PCE increased 0.1 percent in October, the same increase as in September. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2 percent in October,…
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    Crooked Timber

  • PR to PM, not much of a stretch

    Maria
    26 Nov 2014 | 12:39 am
    PR Strategy: “TECH COMPANIES MUST DO MORE” The problem: Britain has declining ability to get US Internet companies to share information they’re not legally obliged to. The cause: Snowden revelations mean US companies keen to dissociated themselves from close and informal intelligence cooperation; first to go is the UK. Also, they are using more encryption. The media narrative: ‘Tech firms must do more in the fight against terror’ TIMELINE The Warm-up Phase 30 September Home Secretary tells Conservative Party conference of ‘outrageous irresponsibility’…
  • Ferguson

    John Holbo
    25 Nov 2014 | 8:27 pm
    Conservatives are wringing their hands. “There is no indication that the [grand jury] system worked otherwise than as it should. Nonetheless, almost immediately protesters — soon become looters — were throwing rocks at the police and then setting ablaze police cars and local businesses.” This ‘nonetheless’ seems to indicate confusion. To review. 1) The law heavily tilts in favor of cop defendants in a case like this (by design). The law sides with cops. The law trusts cops. 2) In Ferguson, the police are (by design) an outside force imposed on the…
  • Sunday photoblogging: Oslo opera house

    Chris Bertram
    23 Nov 2014 | 1:56 am
  • Scabs, Scantrons, and Strikes at the University of Oregon

    Corey Robin
    21 Nov 2014 | 9:14 pm
    From the Department of You Can’t Make This Shit Up… Grad students at the University of Oregon are about to go out on strike. Last year, we talked here about how the faculty at the University of Oregon were trying to negotiate a fair contract with the administration. You’ll recall that the administration wasn’t doing itself any favors with its outlandish efforts to deny faculty privacy and encroach on faculty autonomy outside the university. Because of the pressure we managed to put on the administration, we helped to get the faculty a good contract. Now we need to…
  • Love Come Down

    Belle Waring
    20 Nov 2014 | 9:05 pm
    I have all these songs cued up and stuff I wanted to say about The Dazz Band (it’s literally disco jazz! What is not to love?!), but then I listened to this track five times in a row today, and I thought, ‘Belle, old bean,’ I thought to myself, ‘why are you being so aintry with “Love Come Down” and bogarting this when you could be sharing it with everybody at Crooked Timber? Why?’ Readers, there is no good answer to this question, so here is Evelyn Champagne King. The first time I listened to this song about a month ago I thought I had a problem with…
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    Dealbreaker

  • Write-Offs: 11.26.14

    Dealbreaker
    26 Nov 2014 | 9:16 am
    $$$ HSBC, Goldman Rigged Metals’ Prices for Years, Suit Says [Bloomberg] $$$ Traders May Avoid Libor Fines After FCA Misses Deadline [Bloomberg] $$$ R.E.M.’s New Business Plan: Cashing In on ’90s Nostalgia [BusinessWeek] $$$ Ackman’s Pershing Square sees big payoff from Allergan deal [Reuters] $$$ Mock Lamborghini carved from mahogany [UPI] $$$ That’s it for… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.
  • Coming Soon: Dealbreaker Dramatic Reading Night Part IV

    Dealbreaker
    26 Nov 2014 | 9:10 am
    Do you know what you’re doing the evening of Wednesday, December 17th? You do now. At long last, the fourth installment of Dealbreaker Dramatic Reading Night is here. DBDRN4 will begin at 7:30PM at a bar somewhere in downtown Manhattan and will include lots of new (old) material, plus some fan favorites. Once again, we’re… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: Dealbreaker Dramatic Reading Night Part IV
  • Sleep Where Ken Griffin (And The Soon-To-Be Ex-Mrs. Griffin) Hath Slept

    Bess Levin
    26 Nov 2014 | 8:32 am
    Ken Griffin, the founder of Chicago investment firm Citadel and Illinois’ richest man, has listed his three-bedroom, 2,494-square-foot condominium on North Michigan Avenue for $1.4 million. Griffin, who is in the midst of a contentious divorce from his wife Anne Dias Griffin, owns a penthouse condominium on the 67th floor of the nearby Park Tower… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: Chicago, hedge fund managers, I will sell this house today, Ken Griffin
  • NYMEX, COMEX Get Some Thanksgiving-Weekend Homework From CFTC

    Jon Shazar
    26 Nov 2014 | 7:00 am
    As one can gather from the name, “spoofing” is not OK with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, so it would like a couple of prominent exchanges it regulates to, you know, do something about it. Nothing big, but it would be nice if the New York Mercantile Exchange and Commodity Exchange at least knew whether… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: CFTC, NYMEX. COMEX, spoofing
  • Opening Bell: 11.26.14

    Dealbreaker
    26 Nov 2014 | 4:00 am
    Jefferies Bumps Up Against Big Rivals as It Looks to Expand (WSJ) As Jefferies evolves from its roots as a trading firm to a midtier investment bank, it is knocking up against far larger financial firms vying for business, often from companies Jefferies helped to expand. Jefferies has often worked with smaller firms on transactions… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.
 
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    Econbrowser

  • If Output Is Near Potential, Why Is Inflation so Low?

    Menzie Chinn
    25 Nov 2014 | 9:09 pm
    There is a lot of discussion of how economic slack is fast disappearing, and I expect a lot of push on this view, given continued rapid growth in GDP as reported in today’s second release for 2014Q3. This view seems counter to (1) the CBO estimate of potential GDP and (2) the slow pace of inflation. My suggestion is that there remains a substantial amount of slack out there. In Figure 1, I plot log GDP as reported in today’s release, and potential GDP as estimated by the CBO in its August report. Figure 1: Log GDP (blue), potential GDP as estimated by CBO (gray), and an estimate…
  • Downgraded: The Macro Outlook in Wisconsin

    Menzie Chinn
    24 Nov 2014 | 10:31 am
    The Department of Revenue’s Wisconsin Economic Outlook, released last week, details a noticeable deterioration in forecasted economic performance, in just the past eight months. Figure 1: Real personal income (bn Ch.05$, SAAR) (thick blue, thick red), and forecast from March 2014 (Winter 2014 issue) (light blue), and November 2014 (Fall 2014 issue) (light red). Source: Wisconsin Economic Outlook, Winter 2014 and Fall 2014 issues. 2014Q1 personal income was 1% less (in log terms) than the March 2014 forecast. The forecast for 2014Q2 was revised downward by 1.1%. Interestingly, the report…
  • Lower oil prices and the U.S. economy

    James_Hamilton
    23 Nov 2014 | 9:55 am
    For the last 4 years, the national average retail price of gasoline in the United States stayed within a range of $3.25-$4.00 a gallon. But that all changed this fall, with U.S. consumers now paying an average price of $2.82. New Jersey Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com This usually is the time of year when gasoline prices tend to be at their lowest. But the current U.S. price of gasoline is exactly what we’d predict given the long-run relation between the price of gasoline and crude oil. There’s essentially no seasonal component in the price of crude.
  • What have the nonpartisan research agencies ever done for us?

    Menzie Chinn
    22 Nov 2014 | 4:49 pm
    Updated 11/24 2:45PM Pacific to include a list of candidates the GOP is mulling to replace Elmendorf, including Bill Beach (!!!) (For the youth of today, here is the reference.) I see Americans for Tax Reform is against reappointment of Doug Elmendorf as CBO head. It is a remarkable document, insofar as it is so full of factual errors that the head spins. Montgomery at WaPo provides a point-by-point rebuttal of each of Grover Norquist’s assertions. Here’s a debunking of one of the most hysterical assertions: …the agency promotes a “Failed Keynesian Economic…
  • Some Observations on the Wisconsin Employment Outlook

    Menzie Chinn
    22 Nov 2014 | 12:12 pm
    The Walker Administration’s Economic Outlook forecasts private employment in January 2015 will be 115 thousand below the goal set forth by Governor Walker in August 2013. Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment will not reattain prior peak levels until 2015Q2. Figure 1 depicts how far employment is lagging Walker’s pledge, even by the Administration’s forecast. Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment (red), forecast from November 2014 Wisconsin Economic Outlook, quadratic match interpolation (green), trend consistent with Governor Walker’s August 2013 pledge to…
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    EconLog: Library of Economics and Liberty

  • My Proud "Don't Call the Cops" Moment

    David Henderson
    26 Nov 2014 | 7:35 pm
    (November 26, 2014 07:35 PM, by David Henderson) Most mornings that I don't teach, I go out early to the local Safeway, where there's a Starbuck's, and get my wife a Grande non-fat latte. Tip to men who want a long-term successful marriage: If there are things you... (4 COMMENTS)
  • The Case for Balance Billing

    David Henderson
    26 Nov 2014 | 1:04 pm
    (November 26, 2014 01:04 PM, by David Henderson) The problem starts with the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), the federal agency that sets prices for the medical services of Medicare patients. CMS is really a giant central-planning agency. It sets hundreds of thousands of prices. What... (4 COMMENTS)
  • The Backward State of Behavioral Political Economy

    Bryan Caplan
    26 Nov 2014 | 9:31 am
    (November 26, 2014 09:31 AM, by Bryan Caplan) John Cochrane's grumpy about the state of behavioral political economy.  From his review of Schnellenbach and Schubert's recent literature review: I came away horribly disappointed. Not with the paper, but with the state of the literature that the authors ably summarize.... (0 COMMENTS)
  • A few thoughts on free banking

    Scott Sumner
    25 Nov 2014 | 2:32 pm
    (November 25, 2014 02:32 PM, by Scott Sumner) Izabella Kaminska has a few thoughts on free banking: This week I strayed into the absolutist world of free-banking enthusiasts. Now, it's not like I haven't come across these guys before -- they lurk everywhere -- but this week I... (21 COMMENTS)
  • Immigration Charity Prospect

    Bryan Caplan
    25 Nov 2014 | 10:15 am
    (November 25, 2014 10:15 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Argentina officially has near-open borders.  At least on paper, you only need an employer or family member to sponsor you.  The country isn't as quite First World, but with per-capita GDP around $15,000, Argentina would be a huge step up... (6 COMMENTS)
 
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    Economist's View

  • 'Keynes Is Slowly Winning'

    Mark Thoma
    26 Nov 2014 | 8:59 am
    [Travel day, so no more until later.] Paul Krugman: Keynes Is Slowly Winning: Back in 2010, I had a revelation about just how bad economic policy was about to get; I read the OECD Economic Outlook, which called not just for fiscal austerity but for interest rate hikes — 350 basis points on the Fed funds rate by the end of 2011! — because, well, because. Now, the OECD is calling for fiscal and monetary stimulus in Europe. .... It has taken a while. ... But the hawks seem in retreat at the Fed; Mario Draghi ... sounds an awful lot like Janet Yellen; the whole way we’re discussing Japan is…
  • 'Understanding George Osborne' or 'Osborne's Idiotic Idea'

    Mark Thoma
    26 Nov 2014 | 8:58 am
    Simon Wren-Lewis: Understanding George Osborne: Yesterday I spoke at the Resolution Foundation’s launch of their analysis of the UK political parties’ fiscal plans post 2015. I believe this analysis shows two things very clearly. First, there is potentially a large gap between the amount of austerity planned by the two major parties. Second, George Osborne’s plans are scarcely credible. They represent a shrinking of the UK state that is unprecedented and which in my view virtually no one wants.   I would add one other charge - Osborne's plans are illiterate in…
  • Some Good News for the Unemployed

    Mark Thoma
    26 Nov 2014 | 8:58 am
    At MoneyWatch: Some Good News for the Unemployed: There has been considerable discussion of the “hollowing out” of middle class jobs in recent years, a trend that started before the Great Recession. But where do those who have lost their jobs go? Do they end up with low paying service jobs, McJobs as they are sometimes called, or do they move up the ladder to higher paying jobs? Many people believe that most people who lose middle class jobs end up worse off than before, but recent research by Ellie Terry and John Robertson of the Atlanta Fed finds some surprising results. ...
  • Links for 11-26-14

    Mark Thoma
    26 Nov 2014 | 12:06 am
    The Stimulus Program Was a Smashing Success - Brookings Institution Tax Extenders Package Is Fundamentally Flawed - CBPP Regime Change From Roosevelt to Rousseff - Carola Binder Radical cures for unusual economic ills - Martin Wolf If Output Is Near Potential, Why Is Inflation so Low? - Econbrowser O.E.C.D. Calls for Fiscal and Monetary Measures for EU - NYTimes.com Markets Love Central-Bank Gifts - Bloomberg View NY Fed: Deleveraging process has ended - Calculated Risk Black Swans, Frankenfoods and Disaster Fairy Tales - Noah Smith Labour shares, inequality, and the relative price of capital…
  • Economic Growth and the Information Age

    Mark Thoma
    25 Nov 2014 | 11:02 am
    Brad DeLong: Over at Project Syndicate: Economic Growth and the Information Age: Daily Focus: ...America ... has become a vastly more unequal place since 1979... But the past generation has seen a third industrial revolution, a worthy information-age successor to the first of steam, iron, cotton, and machines and to the second of internal combustion, electricity, steel, and chemicals. Not everyone, but almost everyone in the North Atlantic and many and soon most in the world, can now if they wish have a smartphone–and so gain cheap access to the universe of human knowledge and entertainment…
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    EconTalk

  • Continuing Conversation... Emily Oster on Infant Mortality

    Amy Willis
    25 Nov 2014 | 11:31 am
    EconTalk host Russ Roberts welcomes back University of Chicago's Emily Oster in this week's episode, in which they discuss the differences in infant mortality rates across nations, as well as the challenges and opportunities afforded by health data. Share your thoughts on this week's conversation by responding to any or all of the questions below in the comments. We love to hear from you! Check Your Knowledge: 1. How are infant mortality rates calculated, and what difficulties arise in comparing these rates across countries? 2. What do higher rates of infant mortality generally suggest about…
  • Emily Oster on Infant Mortality

    Russell Roberts
    24 Nov 2014 | 3:30 am
    Emily Oster of the University of Chicago talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about why U.S. infant mortality is twice that in Finland and high relative to the rest of the world, given high income levels in the United States. The conversation explores the roles of measurement and definition along with culture to understand the causes of infant mortality in the United States and how it might be improved. Play Time: 59:31 How do I listen to a podcast? Download Size:27.3 MB Right-click or Option-click, and select "Save Link/Target As MP3. Readings and Links related to this podcast episode…
  • Smith Lessons: What I've learned from Adam and Vernon

    Russ Roberts
    21 Nov 2014 | 11:30 am
    This week's EconTalk episode with Vernon Smith helped me understand something that has been bothering me for a long time. Economics students are taught that human beings are maximizers--we want more rather than less of the things that give us pleasure. But we are constrained by our income. That means making choices. And that means facing tradeoffs. Deirdre McCloskey has called this vision of human behavior Max U. Humans are thought to maximize utility subject to the constraint of income. Adam Smith in The Theory of Moral Sentiments seems to take a different approach. He argues that material…
  • Continuing Conversation... Vernon Smith on Adam Smith and the Human Enterprise

    Amy Willis
    19 Nov 2014 | 7:09 am
    Nobel laureate Vernon Smith joins EconTalk host Russ Roberts this week on EconTalk to discuss Adam Smith's approach to economics and human behavior. And now we'd like to hear from you...Use the prompts below to share your reactions to this week's conversation in the comments. Or use them to start your own face-to-face conversations, and let us know how it goes. 1. What is the Max U approach to economics, and what does Vernon Smith mean when he says it works perfectly well, but only for "hamburgers and haircuts?" What kinds of goods does Max U struggle to deal with according to Vernon Smith?
  • Vernon Smith on Adam Smith and the Human Enterprise

    Russell Roberts
    17 Nov 2014 | 3:30 am
    Nobel Laureate Vernon L. Smith of Chapman University talks to EconTalk host Russ Roberts about how Adam Smith's book, The Theory of Moral Sentiments has enriched his understanding of human behavior. He contrasts Adam Smith's vision in Sentiments with the traditional neoclassical models of choice and applies Smith's insights to explain unexpected experimental results from the laboratory. Play Time: 1:08:02 How do I listen to a podcast? Download Size:31.2 MB Right-click or Option-click, and select "Save Link/Target As MP3. Readings and Links related to this podcast episode Related Readings HIDE…
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    Environmental Economics

  • Happy Thanksgiving

    John Whitehead
    26 Nov 2014 | 10:15 am
  • Should emission interventions be a one-time shock or a series of tightening steps?

    Tim Haab
    26 Nov 2014 | 6:53 am
    “Air quality has improved dramatically over the past decades, and air quality will continue to improve under the existing standards,” said Howard Feldman, director of regulatory affairs for the American Petroleum Institute, which lobbies for the oil industry. “The current review of health studies has not identified compelling evidence for more stringent standards, and current standards are protective of public health.” via www.nytimes.com Ignoring for the moment the obvious conflict of interest, this raising an interesting question. In modeling the effects of a tightening of emissions…
  • Marine Resource Economics Vol. 29, No. 4, December 2014

    John Whitehead
    25 Nov 2014 | 12:05 pm
    Marine Resource EconomicsVol. 29, No. 4, December 2014 Published by: The University of Chicago Press Special Issue: Seafood Markets and Aquaculture ProductionFrank Asche and Atle G. Guttormsen, Guest EditorsIntroduction Seafood Markets and Aquaculture Production: Special Issue Introduction Frank Asche and Atle G. Guttormsen DOI: 10.1086/678924 Marine Resource Economics December 2014, Vol. 29, No. 4: 301-304.   Fish Price Volatility Roy Endre Dahl and Atle Oglend Marine Resource Economics December 2014, Vol. 29, No. 4: 305-322.   Looking to Grow Outside the United States Jingjie Chu and…
  • This is why climate change is a much better term than global warming.

    Tim Haab
    24 Nov 2014 | 5:49 am
    In their paper, Francis and Vavrus suggested that a rapidly warming Arctic should interfere with the jet stream, the river of air high above us that flows eastward around the northern hemisphere and brings with it our weather. Sometimes, the jet stream flows relatively directly from west to east; but other times, it takes long, wavy loops, as in the image above. And according to Francis and Vavrus, Arctic warming should make the jet stream more wavy and loopy on average – some have called it “drunk” -- with dramatic weather consequences. via www.washingtonpost.com That's funny,…
  • Looks like I could have one less line on my resume soon

    Tim Haab
    20 Nov 2014 | 5:06 pm
    Congressional climate wars were dominated Tuesday by the U.S. Senate, which spent the day debating, and ultimately failing to pass, a bill approving the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline. While all that was happening, and largely unnoticed, the House was busy doing what it does best: attacking science.H.R. 1422, which passed 229-191, would shake up the EPA’s Scientific Advisory Board, placing restrictions on those pesky scientists and creating room for experts with overt financial ties to the industries affected by EPA regulations.The bill is being framed as a play for transparency:…
 
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    footnoted*

  • What was Visa waiting for?

    Murti Bhattiprolu
    26 Nov 2014 | 8:10 am
    Disclosure practices of some companies don’t make sense, especially when it comes to their executive compensation. Take credit card giant Visa Inc., for instance. Over a year ago, on May 23, 2013 to be exact, the company announced via a press release the appointment of Ryan McInerney as the company’s president. On the same day, the company filed this 8-K, with his compensation details, including his $2 million signing bonus, which we covered here. So far, so good. Or so we thought, until we clicked open one of the exhibits filed with the company’s latest annual report on…
  • Is Actavis’ new CFO Really worth $22 Million?

    Murti Bhattiprolu
    14 Nov 2014 | 8:26 am
    When it comes to executive compensation, do the board members and compensation consultants who dole it out ever think there’s such a thing as too much of a good thing? That’s the question we found ourselves asking after reading the 8-K that Actavis plc filed late Wednesday. If you are a footnoted regular, you would know that we pay close attention to filings that come in after the close of the markets, especially on Fridays. So when Actavis, the Ireland-based pharmaceutical giant Actavis arrived a little after 5 p.m. on Wednesday, we sent out a quick note to our subscribers,…
  • What’s $8m to Google?

    Michelle Leder
    24 Oct 2014 | 6:10 am
    For most of us, $8 million is a lot of money. But for a company the size of Google, it’s probably safe to say that it’s the equivalent of sofa change. Still, even we were surprised by this exhibit attached to the 10-Q that Google filed yesterday. In the letter, which was dated July 18, 2014, Google agreed to forgive an $8m cash award that former Chief Business Officer Nikesh Arora was supposed to pay back within 30 days if he left the company prior to April 25, 2015. The condition was spelled out pretty clearly in this letter dated April 27, 2012. In that letter, the company said…
  • GT Technologies warned in August

    Michelle Leder
    10 Oct 2014 | 11:54 am
    There’s been a lot of hand-wringing over the past few days about GT Technologies, which as most people know, filed for bankruptcy earlier this week. In the press release, CEO Tom Guttierez said that “today’s filing does not mean we are going out of business; rather, it provides us with the opportunity to continue to execute our business plan on a stronger footing, maintain operations of our diversified business, and improve our balance sheet.” Investors didn’t quite see things that way. The stock declined over 90% on Monday and has spent the past few days…
  • Comment letter ahead of BofA’s $8M Fine

    Murti Bhattiprolu
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:00 am
    Yesterday, the SEC announced a $7.65m fine for Bank of America Corp. related to internal controls deficiencies and regulatory capital misstatements related to complex securities it bought as part of its acquisition of Merrill Lynch in 2009. What’s surprising is that a comment letter that was made public earlier this month previewed this. In that letter, the SEC said it was concerned with the company’s disclosure about revisions to regulatory capital amounts and ratios in its first-quarter report, which we flagged for footnotedPro subscribers on May 1. We thought it was…
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    Free exchange

  • Staying Dutch

    THE DATA TEAM
    26 Nov 2014 | 7:55 am
    IT IS tempting for economists to couch Europe’s great debates—over immigration, burden-sharing, competitiveness—in technocratic terms. What effect do new arrivals have on the wages of the local population? How can debts be mutualised without giving debtor countries an incentive to spend wildly? But cold logic fails to capture the emotional side to issues that directly touch on sovereignty and national identity. A new Tinbergen Institute paper is a reminder of how cultural differences can run counter to the logic of European integration.The authors were intrigued by the difference in the…
  • How strong is it?

    R.A. | LONDON
    25 Nov 2014 | 12:47 pm
    ACCORDING to new data released today, America's economy grew at a 3.9% annual pace in the third quarter of this year. That was an upward revision from the advance estimate, of 3.5%. It came on the heels of a second quarter in which real output expanded at a 4.6% rate. Indeed, in four of the last five quarters GDP has increased by 3.5% or more (and by 4.5% or more in two of the last five quarters). The American economy hasn't strung together five quarters like that since the late 1990s. Neither is that the only encouraging indicator. Over the last year employment has grown at the fastest…
  • Harmless or harmful?

    Economist.com
    24 Nov 2014 | 4:13 pm
    DOVEISH action and words from central banks in China and Europe, Russia's economy and more trouble for Google in Europe
  • The right call

    S.R. | SHANGHAI
    21 Nov 2014 | 9:35 am
    CHINA has cut interest rates for the first time in more than two years, a powerful signal that the government wants to step up support for the slowing economy. As fate would have it, a rate cut was the very thing we had called for in our leader on Chinese monetary policy this week. But we cannot claim to be clairvoyant. We had not expected the central bank to move so quickly. Nor, for that matter, had most analysts or investors – hence the big gains for stocks, commodities and currencies sensitive to Chinese demand in the hours following the announcement.It is tempting to look at the rate…
  • It is really that bad

    C.W. | LONDON
    20 Nov 2014 | 7:12 am
    SINCE OUR print-edition piece last week, Ukraine’s economy seems to have stabilised a little. The currency fell by about 2% this week against the dollar, much better than what happened the week before (when there was a 14% drop). Ukraine's central bank issued an optimistic press release, suggesting that the currency was starting to appreciate. Despite this not-quite-so-bad news, there is little reason to be cheery. I don’t think people realise just how bad a mess the economy is in. Let’s start with a few basic facts. The average Ukrainian is probably 20% poorer than she was…
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    Greg Mankiw's Blog

  • Trash Talking at the Harvard-Yale Game

    Greg Mankiw
    23 Nov 2014 | 4:18 am
  • McCloskey on Piketty

    Greg Mankiw
    22 Nov 2014 | 4:04 am
    A long, discursive, and compelling review essay.
  • Elmendorf for CBO Director

    Greg Mankiw
    15 Nov 2014 | 2:45 am
    Roll Call speculates about who the next director of the Congressional Budget Office might be. This is a key decision facing the newly elected GOP-controlled Congress. After giving a talk at CBO on Thursday and participating in its Academic Advisers Panel on Friday, I am reminded how impressive the CBO staff is and how important the institution is to the policy process. (FYI, my own affiliation with CBO dates back to the summer of 1978, when I was an intern there.)So who should the next CBO director be? There are a lot of…
  • Tax Fact of the Day

    Greg Mankiw
    12 Nov 2014 | 11:18 am
    Source. Click on graphic to enlarge.
  • A Textbook Example of Arbitrage

    Greg Mankiw
    12 Nov 2014 | 9:14 am
    From NPR.
 
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    Hedge fund

  • Active v passive

    Veryan Allen
    18 Nov 2014 | 3:58 pm
    Active v passive is better phrased as smart active v dumb active. Index funds are just unskilled low frequency trading strategies with horrific drawdowns and abysmal risk adjusted returns. Active is the ONLY option in the REAL world; "passive" funds track ACTIVE decisions of index construction firms. Should you risk your life savings on dumb lists of stocks or hard working talent that actually earns its fees? Name ANY business sector where passive works in the long term.Choosing WHICH index is an active decision requiring skill. Prudent men invest in skill. If you think the best stock pickers…
  • Hedge fund black swan

    Veryan Allen
    14 Nov 2014 | 4:07 am
    Hedge fund blog, a long only manager and an index fund are flying to New Zealand. As the plane lands they see ONE purple sheep in a field.Professor Passive says "All kiwi sheep are purple! I must buy them all now. At any price the farmers ask, no matter how expensive or overvalued. No need to know the sheep's business or earnings. Forget about analysis or due diligence. Ignore risk! Prices are always correct as markets are efficient. It's not my money. I have academic tenure and a Nobel prize. Risk free...for me."Long only dude says "Some kiwi sheep are purple but the professor says they all…
  • Hedge fund test

    Veryan Allen
    11 Nov 2014 | 7:14 am
    Alpha is so rare that only the most dedicated and talented can find it. Top portfolio managers take a minimum 50,000 hours full time investing to BECOME skilled and work 100 hour weeks to maintain competence. Such people do NOT manage traditional funds dependent on a risky index. They score 10/10 on Hedge Fund Test. How will you do?1) Human resources: You wish to hire a performance rainmaker/new strategy developer. Your shortlist comprises the following candidates. You can only choose one. Who?i) MBA, CFA with many years experience at prominent bulge bracket white shoe firmsii) PhD in…
  • Hedge fund arbitrage

    Veryan Allen
    5 Nov 2014 | 6:22 am
    Arbitrage? There's more dumb money invested in the markets than ever before. So there are MORE opportunities for smart funds to exploit those dumb investors. Many claim there is no such thing as arbitrage as it supposedly would be copied and eliminated! They are wrong. If you have the intelligence and resources there are many arbitrages on Wall Street. MORE THAN EVER BEFORE. Markets are becoming even LESS efficient.A common metaphor is that if a $100 bill is dropped in the street it would immediately be picked up therefore no arbitrage can persist. But what if YOU are the person that finds…
  • Sports hedge fund

    Veryan Allen
    5 Nov 2014 | 3:39 am
    Skill doesn't exist? No such thing as talent and dedication? There are no above average people just lucky ones? Maybe Pelé, Jack Nicklaus, Michael Jordan, Wayne Gretzky, Babe Ruth and the greatest sportsman in world history Donald Bradman were just lucky flukes like hedge fund managers Jim Simons, George Soros, Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham and the best ever Munehisa Honma?Sports hedge fund? Unlike stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities, sports results don't depend on the economy. Sports bets offer reliable arbitrages and mispricings like "efficient" financial markets. Most people bet…
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    Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up

  • Activist Targets IBM: “Bring Out the Belgian Waffle!”

    Jeff Matthews
    25 Nov 2014 | 10:06 am
    IBM trades to highs on activist related speculation  (161.85 +0.95)—Briefing.com, November 23, 2014IBM Chief Counsel: “Ginni?  Fred here.” IBM CEO Ginni Rometty:  “What’s wrong?”Chief Counsel: “Activists are circling.”Rometty: “Oh geez.”Chief Counsel: “Yeah.  I’ve got the biggest shark of all on hold.  He wants to talk.”Rometty: “Carl Icahn??”Chief Counsel:  “No.   Icahn watches Netflix and uses an iPhone.  He thinks we’re ‘old economy.’  Worse than Icahn.”Rometty: “Donald Trump?”Chief…
  • Now That's An Idea That Would Never Fly

    Jeff Matthews
    17 Nov 2014 | 2:08 pm
     Former BB&T* CEO John Allison has written a book about, well, about his time at BB&T, during which it grew from $275 million in assets to $152 billion (profitably) and some lessons learned along the way. American Banker, one of the publications Warren Buffett reads every day, is publishing excerpts from the book, covering everything from how BB&T got into the subprime auto lending business to how it looks for acquisitions (100 and counting during Allison's 35 years at the bank). And while Warren Buffett has long lambasted American CEOs for not providing…
  • Don't Blame IBM. Blame Wall Street

    Jeff Matthews
    20 Oct 2014 | 5:31 am
     Well the biggest stock-market levitation act since HP under Mark Hurd is going the way of all levitation acts: IBM is throwing in the towel on its $20 EPS "roadmap" (reportedly mocked as "roadkill" in some internal IBM quarters) and admitting what anybody with a calculator and the IBM 10Ks before them has understood for some time--it is exceedingly difficult to grow earnings regularly, not to mention with to-the-penny precision, when your sales are falling, hard, nearly everywhere, quarter after quarter...no matter how many people you lay off, how many "one-time" charges you take,…
  • Berkshire Hathaway: Wholesaler of Death?

    Jeff Matthews
    5 Sep 2014 | 1:41 pm
     Now that we have your attention with that admittedly provocative title, we are going to kill two birds with one stone here. Bird One is the fact that we haven’t posted anything in two months, mainly because whatever odd silliness visible in the darker corners of Wall Street seems irrelevant in a world where Vladimir Putin can invade his neighbors, take territory and shoot passenger planes from the sky while the civilized world sputters about such things not being fit for 21stCentury-type behavior before moving onto actual 21st Century-type behavior like Tweeting about…
  • Okay FINRA, Who Had The Call From The FHFA?

    Jeff Matthews
    11 Jul 2014 | 6:38 am
     Last night at 4:05 PM E.S.T. the news hit Bloomberg that the Federal Housing Financing Agency was proposing an astoundingly, stupidly strict set of standards for private mortgage insurers who do business with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the net effect of which would be to reduce the availability of credit for home buyers at the very time that credit is needed to keep our economic recovery going. We are not here to explain the issue, only to point out to FINRA, the self-policing body in charge of sniffing out strange behavior in the public markets, the enormous--nay,…
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    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

  • Thanksgiving Travel Nightmare: Over 700 Flights Canceled, Major Storms; Black Friday Ice; Please Drive Safely

    26 Nov 2014 | 3:39 pm
    If you are traveling tonight or tomorrow, please take extra time.If you are traveling by plane, please check your flight schedule. Hundreds of flights have been cancelled, thousands of other flights delayed.Thanksgiving Travel NightmareAccuweather reports Snowstorm Creates Thanksgiving Travel Nightmare in EastA snowstorm pummeling the East has produced lengthy flight delays and treacherous travel on roadways Wednesday. As snow rapidly exits the Northeast into Thanksgiving Day, there will still be some travel trouble spots in the wake of the storm.Aircraft displaced and delayed by the storm in…
  • Google vs. Sun vs. France: Too Big, Too Powerful, Too Free

    26 Nov 2014 | 10:34 am
    I happen to like the sun. By definition, the earth would not even be a planet without the sun. No one on earth would be alive without free sunshine.I happen to like Google. I could survive without Google, but like the sun, much of what Google provides is free. Free Google ThingsFree internet services including the best search engine in the worldFree GmailFree research on self-driving cars Free research on other roboticsFree blog softwareFree hosting and storage for blogsFree ads on my blog (and those ads make me money)For a discussion of the implications of a self-driving car, please see…
  • Merkel Will Blink First, Not Putin

    25 Nov 2014 | 3:00 pm
    The cold war took another twist last week when a Senior German Politician Endorsed Russian Takeover of Crimea. Former state premier Matthias Platzeck, chairman of the German-Russian Forum business lobby and erstwhile Social Democrat (SPD) chief, is the first high-ranking German to say the West should endorse the annexation as a way to help resolve the Ukraine crisis. Platzeck, 60, told the Passauer Neue Presse newspaper: "A wise man changes his mind - a fool never will... The annexation of Crimea must be retroactively arranged under international law so that it's acceptable for…
  • Rents Heading Up? Will the CPI Follow?

    25 Nov 2014 | 12:49 pm
    Rents are up 6.5% in San Francisco, and 4.5% in numerous other cities. Is this a leading indicator for a stronger inflation as measured by the CPI?Please consider the Variant Perception article Higher Rents in the US are a Strong Support for CPI. Despite the subdued nature of US CPI, some large components are turning up.  Owners’ equivalent rent and rent of primary residence, which together account almost of a third of the CPI basket, are turning up strongly. A low vacancy rate and a relatively resilient US economy is helping to drive rents higher, with San Francisco seeing the…
  • War on Terror: Drones Target 41 but Kill 1,147 Mostly Innocent men, Women, and Children

    24 Nov 2014 | 10:19 pm
    The US calls it a war on terror. In reality it's a war of terror. And for every innocent person killed, hundreds of friends and family members hold it against the US. The Guardian reports 41 Men Targeted but 1,147 People Killed in US Drone Strikes. New analysis of data conducted by human rights group Reprieve shared with the Guardian, raises questions about accuracy of intelligence guiding ‘precise’ strikes. The drones came for Ayman Zawahiri on 13 January 2006, hovering over a village in Pakistan called Damadola. Ten months later, they came again for the man who would become al-Qaida’s…
 
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    Overcoming Bias

  • Authentic =? Accepted

    Robin Hanson
    25 Nov 2014 | 7:05 pm
    We usually hear that being “authentic” is to “be yourself”, as opposed to “pretending”. But consider some clues about authenticity: People who believe they’re behaving authentically are less distressed and have higher self-esteem. … Feeling inauthentic in one’s dealings with other people correlates with symptoms of depression. … Women … report much greater feelings of personal authenticity in their romantic relationships than men do, and as teens, they’re more likely than boys to say that they can be themselves with their best friends. On the other hand, teen boys…
  • Policy vs. Meta-Policy

    Robin Hanson
    24 Nov 2014 | 6:40 am
    What is our main problem, bad policy or bad meta-policy? That is, do our collective choices go wrong mainly because we make a few key mistakes in choosing particular policies? Or do they go wrong mainly because we use the wrong institutions to choose these policies? I would have thought meta-policy was the obvious answer. But CATO asked 51 scholars/pundits this question: If you could wave a magic wand and make one or two policy or institutional changes to brighten the U.S. economy’s long-term growth prospects, what would you change and why? And out of the 29 answers now visible, only four…
  • Hanson Loves Moose Caca

    Robin Hanson
    22 Nov 2014 | 6:40 am
    Warning: this post touches on sensitive topics. In the movie “My Big Fat Greek Wedding,” when Toula was a little girl, she sat alone in the school cafeteria, frizzy haired, big nosed, and unpopular. The blonde girls at the next table asked her what she was eating, and Toula quietly said “moussaka.” The popular girls laughed cruelly, saying “Ewwww, ”moose caca!”” (more) Imagine that those cruel girls had gone on to tell other kids “Toula says she loves to eat moose caca!” That is how I feel when Noah Smith says: Why is it that the sciences…
  • Imagine Libertopia

    Robin Hanson
    21 Nov 2014 | 8:00 am
    In this post I’ll talk primarily to people who, like me, lean libertarian. The rest of you can take a break. Libertarians want to move more products and services from being provided directly by government, to being provided privately. And for those that are provided privately, libertarians want to weaken regulations. These changes would increase liberty. Libertarians tend to offer arguments that are relatively abstract and theory-based. That is, they focus more on why more liberty is more moral, or why it should in theory give better outcomes. They focus less on showing that liberty has…
  • Conservative vs. Liberal Jobs

    Robin Hanson
    18 Nov 2014 | 7:40 pm
    My last post got me thinking about the liberal vs. conservative slant of different jobs. Here are two sources of data. Consider some jobs that lean conservative: soldier, police, doctor, religious worker, insurance broker. These seem to be jobs where there are rare big bad things that can go wrong, and you want workers who can help keep them from happening. That explanation can also makes some sense of these other conservative jobs: grader & sorter, electrical contractor, car dealer, trucker, coal miner, construction worker, gas service station worker, non-professor scientist.
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Leif and Uri need to hang out with a better class of statisticians

    Andrew
    26 Nov 2014 | 6:30 am
    Noted psychology researchers and methods skeptics Leif Nelson and Uri Simonsohn write: A recent Psych Science (.pdf) paper found that sports teams can perform worse when they have too much talent. For example, in Study 3 they found that NBA teams with a higher percentage of talented players win more games, but that teams with the highest levels of talented players win fewer games. The hypothesis is easy enough to articulate, but pause for a moment and ask yourself, “How would you test it?” So far, so good. But then they come up with this stunner: If you are like everyone we talked to over…
  • I (almost and inadvertently) followed Dan Kahan’s principles in my class today, and that was a good thing (would’ve even been more of a good thing had I realized what I was doing and done it better, but I think I will do better in the future, which has already happened by the time you read this; remember, the blog is on a nearly 2-month lag)

    Andrew
    25 Nov 2014 | 6:38 am
    As you might recall, the Elizabeth K. Dollard Professor says that to explain a concept to an unbeliever, explain it conditionally. For example, if you want to talk evolution with a religious fundamentalist, don’t try to convince him or her that evolution is true; instead preface each explanation with, “According to the theory of evolution . . .” Your student can then learn evolution in a comfortable manner, as a set of logical rules that explain certain facts about the world. There’s no need for the student to believe or accept the idea that evolution is a universal…
  • The hype cycle starts again

    Andrew
    24 Nov 2014 | 7:36 am
    Completely uncritical press coverage of a speculative analysis. But, hey, it was published in the prestigious Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PPNAS)! What could possibly go wrong? Here’s what Erik Larsen writes: In a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, People search for meaning when they approach a new decade in chronological age, Adam L. Alter and Hal E. Hershfield conclude that “adults undertake a search for existential meaning when they approach a new decade in age (e.g., at ages 29, 39, 49, etc.) or imagine entering a new…
  • On deck this week

    Andrew
    24 Nov 2014 | 6:00 am
    Mon: The hype cycle starts again Tues: I (almost and inadvertently) followed Dan Kahan’s principles in my class today, and that was a good thing (would’ve even been more of a good thing had I realized what I was doing and done it better, but I think I will do better in the future, which has already happened by the time you read this; remember, the blog is on a nearly 2-month lag) Wed: Leif and Uri need to hang out with a better class of statisticians Thurs: Quantitative literacy is tough! Or, I had no idea that, in 1958, 96% of Americans disapproved of interracial marriage! Fri: Arizona…
  • What do Rick Santorum and Andrew Cuomo have in common?

    Andrew
    23 Nov 2014 | 6:34 pm
    Besides family values, that is? Both these politicians seem to have a problem with the National Weather Service: The Senator: Santorum also accused the weather service’s National Hurricane Center of flubbing its forecasts for Hurricane Katrina’s initial landfall in Florida, despite the days of all-too-prescient warnings the agency had given that the storm would subsequently strike the Gulf Coast. The Governor: Governor Cuomo’s attempt to scapegoat the National Weather Service for an inaccurate forecast in advance is not only completely in error—the NWS did an outstanding…
 
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    Streetsblog New York City

  • NYC: It’s His Commission: Blame Cuomo for MTA’s Underwhelming “Reinvention”

    Stephen Miller
    26 Nov 2014 | 1:06 pm
    The MTA Reinvention Commission report, the product of months of work from a panel of experts, was unceremoniously dumped to the press by the governor’s office at 5:30 p.m. yesterday, shortly before Thanksgiving. While the document [PDF] includes a number of worthwhile suggestions, it fails to seriously grapple with the biggest challenges facing New York’s transit system. The MTA’s astronomical construction costs and the substantial systemwide benefits of funding transit with road pricing get only cursory mentions. This is disappointing, but not surprising, since the report…
  • NYC: NYC Motorists Have Killed Five Pedestrians and One Cyclist in 10 Days

    Brad Aaron
    26 Nov 2014 | 11:40 am
    At least five pedestrians and one cyclist have been killed by motorists since November 15. Of the six drivers involved, four left the scene. Of the four who were either caught by NYPD or remained at the scene, only one has been charged for causing a death. One three-hour span on Monday was especially violent. At 6:50 p.m., the driver of a BMW sedan struck 57-year-old Robert Perry on the Bowery near Rivington Street on the Lower East Side. ”The car kept going until it crashed into a fire hydrant a block away at Stanton Street,” reported DNAinfo. The driver who killed Mohammad…
  • NYC: Vance Serves Up Excuses for Failure to Prosecute Motorists Who Kill

    Ben Fried
    26 Nov 2014 | 10:22 am
    On November 14, the same day that Transportation Alternatives convened a national Vision Zero symposium at Brooklyn Law School, Fordham Law School held a day-long event examining the legacy of “Bloomberg’s New York.” Among the speakers: Manhattan District Attorney Cy Vance, who sat on an afternoon panel on public safety. Streetsblog founding editor Aaron Naparstek was in the audience and asked Vance why prosecutions of deadly driving haven’t kept up with the advances in safe street design that rapidly accelerated under Bloomberg. What is stopping the DA from holding…
  • NYC: Today’s Headlines

    Stephen Miller
    26 Nov 2014 | 5:58 am
    New Yorkers Protest Ferguson Decision in Squares, Streets, Highways (NYT, DNA) MTA Officially Releases Reinvention Commission Report Right Before Holiday (WSJ, News, MTR) To Truly Reinvent the MTA, Here’s What It Would Have Addressed (Ped Observations, 2nd Ave Sagas) City Council Triples Number of Blind-Accessible Ped Signal Installations to 75 Annually (WNYC, Observer) 5th Precinct’s Claim of Increase in Cyclist-Involved Crashes Isn’t Supported by NYPD Data (I Quant NY) State DOT Secures $20 Million for New Ped Bridge to Riverside Park at West 151st Street (DNA)…
  • NYC: Motorist With Now-Expired NYC Disability Placard Still Blocking Curb Ramp

    Brad Aaron
    25 Nov 2014 | 12:58 pm
    The DOT disability parking permit on the dashboard expired weeks ago, but this driver continues to park in a no parking zone, blocking the curb ramp. Photo: Brad Aaron And now back to Seaman Avenue. A few weeks ago we noted that motorists who obtain disability permits from the city can basically park wherever they want, even in “no parking” zones with curb ramps for pedestrians with disabilities. An unmarked crosswalk at Seaman and W. 214th Street, in Inwood, is a favorite spot for placard bearers, whether their parking credentials are legitimate or not. The disability permit in…
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    The Big Picture

  • 3-Star General: We’ve Lost the Wars In Iraq & Afghanistan

    Washingtons Blog
    26 Nov 2014 | 10:30 pm
    3-Star General Who Helped Lead War On Terror: We’ve Lost the Wars In Iraq and Afghanistan “That Would Be Four Times Biting That Poison Apple: Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and Then Iraq Again” 3-star General Daniel Bolger helped to lead the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The first sentence of his new book - Why We Lost: A General’s Inside Account of the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars – starts: I am a United Sates Army general, and I lost the Global War on Terrorism. It’s like Alcoholics Anonymous; step one is admitting you have a problem. Well, I have a problem. So do my peers. And thanks…
  • Timeline of Media Scare Stories

    Barry Ritholtz
    26 Nov 2014 | 11:30 am
    This is fascinating stuff; more on this next week.   Click for an interactive chart. Source: Information is Beautiful
  • Economics Indicators Dashboard

    Barry Ritholtz
    26 Nov 2014 | 9:00 am
    Here’s the monthly update from Russell:   click for interactive graphic Source: Russell Investments
  • Don’t Shop on Thanksgiving and Other Good Advice

    Barry Ritholtz
    26 Nov 2014 | 6:30 am
    This is the time of year when Americans gather with family and friends to give thanks. A bounteous feast is the time to express gratitude for our good fortune. We count our blessings, humbled by the fortuity of our circumstances, grateful for whatever it is we have. Once you get that over with, it’s time to go shopping. At least, that seems to be the message of retailers, as they intrude further and further into the holidays. This year, a growing number of retailers are actually open on Thanksgiving Day, including Wal-Mart, Kmart, Sears, Target, Kohl’s, Staples and Macy’s.
  • 10 Wednesday AM Reads

    Barry Ritholtz
    26 Nov 2014 | 5:30 am
    My pre-Thanksgiving Day reads for your traveling enjoyment: • Hedge Funds Lose Money for Everyone, Not Just the Rich (Bloomberg) • Black Friday Is No Sure Indicator of Holiday Retail Sales (WSJ) see also When It Comes to Holiday Shopping, Not All Plastic Is Equal (NYT) • New Mortgage Lending Drops to 13-Year Low (Real Time Economics) • Radical cures for unusual economic ills: The crisis left a grim legacy, and the answers are likely to be unorthodox (FT) • The Tortoise and the ECB (Pimco) What are you reading? Continues here  
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    The Epicurean Dealmaker

  • His Dark Materials

    26 Nov 2014 | 9:40 pm
    Joseph Wright, Arkwright’s Cotton Mills by Night, c. 1782The best one can hope for as a human is to have a relationship with that emptiness where God would be if God were available, but God isn’t. … He’s not available because he’s not a being of a kind that would fit into our availability. … If God were knowable, why would we believe in him?— Anne CarsonAll religions [have] at least one common commandment: “Thou shalt not disfigure the soul.”— Frank Herbert, DuneSeems to me the place you fight cruelty is where you find it, and the place you give help is where you see it…
  • Regrets, I’ve Had a Few

    23 Nov 2014 | 3:56 pm
    Auguste Rodin, Orpheus and Eurydice, 1893Martin Blank: “I’m sorry if I fucked up your life.”Debi Newberry: “It’s not over yet.”— Grosse Pointe BlankWhy do we regret life choices? In retrospect, some are decisions with serious and long lasting consequences we make carelessly, hastily, or without due consideration to relevant factors clearly available to our decision making process at the time. They are important choices poorly made. These are good candidates for regret, because we think to ourselves, “If only I had thought more clearly, or taken more time, or investigated my…
  • What Is It Like to Be a Banker?

    18 Nov 2014 | 6:35 pm
    Conscious experience is a widespread phenomenon.— Thomas Nagel, inveterate optimistWhilst conducting primary research into the ontological foundations of metaphysical epistemology recently, O Dearly Beloved, Your Dilatory and Shockingly Remiss Correspondent happened upon a previously unpublished draft of Thomas Nagel’s seminal paper, “What Is It Like to Be a Bat?” I found upon examination of the disintegrating foolscap moldering in dank archives that this eminent philosopher had initially attempted to frame his gedankenexperiment with an empathic exercise even more challenging than…
  • Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes?

    2 Nov 2014 | 3:55 pm
    Auguste Rodin, The Age of Bronze, 1876“If you meet a thief, you may suspect him, by virtueof your office, to be no true man; and, for suchkind of men, the less you meddle or make with them,why the more is for your honesty.”— William Shakespeare, Much Ado About NothingFrancine McKenna of re: The Auditors recently expressed her dismay that the Big Four accounting firms have continued to be noticeably remiss about engaging reputable accounting firms to audit their own in-house broker dealer arms. The litany Ms McKenna recites of well-known and less-than-well-known failures and deficiencies…
  • Courtly Love

    27 Oct 2014 | 8:37 pm
    Contrary to the cynicism that can pervade discussions of [mergers and acquisitions], many top level M & A advisors have a genuine concern about the integrity of large scale transactions and a desire for the fiduciaries involved to serve the interests they represent in a good faith and effective way. This is not to say that they do not seek to advance the interests of their clients in obtaining legitimate economic advantage, but they do want the game to be a fair one.— Leo E. Strine, Jr., Chief Justice, Delaware Supreme Court 1,2,31 While I appreciate Chief Justice Strine’s sentiment…
 
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    OUPblog

  • Monthly etymology gleanings for November 2014

    Julia Callaway
    26 Nov 2014 | 5:30 am
    As always, I want to thank those who have commented on the posts and written me letters bypassing the “official channels” (though nothing can be more in- or unofficial than this blog; I distinguish between inofficial and unofficial, to the disapproval of the spellchecker and some editors). I only wish there were more comments and letters. With regard to my “bimonthly” gleanings, I did think of calling them bimestrial but decided that even with my propensity for hard words I could not afford such a monster. Trimestrial and quarterly are another matter. By the way, I would not call…
  • The Classical World from A to Z

    Connie Ngo
    26 Nov 2014 | 3:30 am
    For over 2,000 years the civilizations of ancient Greece and Rome have captivated our collective imagination and provided inspiration for many aspects of our lives, from culture, literature, drama, cinema, and television to society, education, and politics. With over 700 entries on everything and anything related to the classical world in the Oxford Companion to Classical Civilization, we created an A-Z list of facts you should know about the time period. Alexander the Great: He believed himself the descendent of Heracles, Perseus, and Zeus. By 331 he had begun to represent himself as the…
  • Thanksgiving and the economics of sharing

    Katherine Soroya
    26 Nov 2014 | 1:30 am
    For this American, my favorite holiday has always been Thanksgiving. Why? I have an image in my mind of Native Americans and colonists meeting and sharing food together; they share knowledge and stories. In the midst of their concerns about each other, they found respect for each other. Their spirit of sharing is a great inspiration. As an economist in this upside-down world of people stressing over their future and present, I find answers in that image of Thanksgiving. People eventually survive by sharing with each other as a community. The poor are fed. The sick are cared for. The…
  • AMS/SMT 2014: Highlights from the OUP booth

    Raquel Fernandes
    26 Nov 2014 | 12:30 am
    We had a great time at this year’s AMS/SMT meeting! Milwaukee was a bit chilly, but we drank lots of coffee, cozied up with thrilling new books, and listened to some fantastic presentations! Weren’t able to make it, or just feeling nostalgic? Take a tour through the eyes of OUP music, and check out some memorable highlights from this year’s joint meeting: Check out the OUP booth all ready for AMS/SMT! Smile, and say, 'OXFORD!' Nalini Ghuman poses with her book, 'Resonances of the Raj'! Not one, but TWO! Todd Decker posing with both of his books at AMS/SMT, 'Who Should…
  • Religion and the paranormal

    Alice
    25 Nov 2014 | 5:30 am
    OUP author Diana Walsh Pasulka recently caught up with fellow scholar of religion Jeffrey J. Kripal, to discuss the study of the supernatural and the paranormal within the university. Diana Walsh Pasulka: You’ve written about the origin of the term paranormal and its link to the British and American Spiritualist movements. You’ve noted that the paranormal is inextricably linked to the idea of the sacred. How do you see the paranormal as different from the idea of the supernatural, which has traditionally been used to describe events that exceed naturalist explanations, like miracles, for…
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    Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

  • Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    26 Nov 2014 | 5:04 am
    (Don Boudreaux) … is from pages 44-45 of my colleague Richard Wagner’s deeply insightful 1996 monograph, Economic Policy in a Liberal Democracy: Suppose medical care is financed through state budgets, or, equivalently, through private insurance that is constrained by government to charge common pricing.  Once this happens, a new network of interests is created.  People who make relatively low use of a service form a natural interest group in opposition to those who might make relatively high use.  What was once a matter of a simple toleration of different choices of life-styles under…
  • Insignificance and Significance

    Don Boudreaux
    25 Nov 2014 | 8:21 pm
    (Don Boudreaux) In my latest column for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review I ponder various kinds and degrees of insignificance of individual human choices and actions. I wrote this column before completing my reading of Russ’s brilliant new book, How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life.  While finishing my reading of Russ’s book hasn’t caused me to change my mind on any matter mentioned in my column, it has caused me to see some additional issues that warrant more careful scrutiny.  Likewise for David Henderson’s recent – and, I hope to show in a future blog post,…
  • George Selgin Dazzlingly Disses the Dizzy

    Don Boudreaux
    25 Nov 2014 | 3:39 pm
    (Don Boudreaux) If someone who knows not the slightest thing about neurosurgery beyond what he infers by pondering his own skull takes a scalpel to a patient’s brain, the patient suffers a gruesome death and the pretend-healer is exposed immediately as a charlatan.  Matters, alas, differ in economics.  Pretend-economists often not only get away with the most bizarre quackery, but receive applause for practicing it. Fortunately, the blogosphere has in it true scholars such as George Selgin to expose pretenders. Here’s George’s brilliant exposé of one Izabella Kaminska.
  • Meanwhile, Uncertainty Growth is Booming

    Don Boudreaux
    25 Nov 2014 | 6:56 am
    (Don Boudreaux) Here’s a letter to the Wall Street Journal: The subheading describing Alan Blinder’s essay “The Unsettling Mystery of Productivity” (Nov. 25) reads “Since 2010 U.S. productivity has grown at a miserable rate.  And no one, not even the Fed, seems to understand why.” Here’s a potential explanation: regime uncertainty.  Pioneered by economist Robert Higgs to explain the length and depth of the Great Depression,* the concept of “regime uncertainty” captures the difficulty of investors to foresee how their rights to their property (including to their…
  • Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    25 Nov 2014 | 5:03 am
    (Don Boudreaux) … is from page 53 of the 1983 collection of some of the writings of the late G. Warren Nutter, entitled Political Economy and Freedom; specifically, it’s from Nutter’s insightful 1976 essay “A Comment on Okun” (link added): In passing, [Arthur] Okun cannot resist praising recent legislation on campaign spending as a welcome curb to the “counterfeiting” of votes and hence a boost to a more “democratic” political process.  Here is another example of of miscomprehension of the complex issues underlying the First Amendment, with which this…
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    Dollars & Sense Blog

  • New Issue! Plus: Links

    Chris Sturr
    25 Nov 2014 | 1:29 pm
    (1) New Issue! We have finally finished layout for our November/December issue, which is our 40th-anniversary issue (see retrospective cover above). Two articles are posted: Arthur MacEwan’s “Ask Dr. Dollar” column on global inequality, and John Miller’s “Up Against the Wall Street Journal” column on climate change. Table of contents here. Look for more great articles from this issue online soon, including D&S collective member and economist Zoe Sherman’s piece, “Are We Better Off Than 40 Years Ago?” But why not subscribe? (2) LA…
  • That Film About Money

    Chris Sturr
    26 Oct 2014 | 10:04 am
    The film director James Schamus, who is a D&S subscriber and supporter, wrote us saying he “thought you’d like to see some work inspired by what you do”–two short films about money that are part of the New York Times‘s “We the Economy” series (I haven’t seen the other short films in the series, but I’m guessing the others are not as good as James’s!). Here they are:   Great to see D&S pals Rick Wolff, Barbara Garson, and Suresh Naidu interviewed here! Here is James’s director’s statement from the “We the…
  • Tuesday Links: London Whale, S.A.C. Capital, Jeff Madrick

    Chris Sturr
    21 Oct 2014 | 1:23 pm
    Apologies about the break from posts for the past week plus.  I just moved apartments, and that kept me from blogging. (Though around the same time I was moving we had some troubles with our sister blog, Triple Crisis, which also took up a lot of time. I have found some temporary fixes for our troubles, but if there are any WordPress developers out there who could give us some pro bono help with our two blogs (which both run on WordPress) and our website (which we intend to shift over to WordPress), please drop us a line.) Here are my latest links: (1) Jeff Madrick’s Seven Bad Ideas:…
  • Friday Links: Market Basket, War and Climate Change, etc.

    Chris Sturr
    3 Oct 2014 | 8:43 am
    (1) Alejandro Reuss on Market Basket:  I noticed that a Twitter account related to the low-wage worker organizing that is going on now, @LowPayIsNotOk, tweeted about a ridiculous article from Forbes arguing that the take-away from the return of Arthur T. Demoulas as CEO to the Market Basket supermarket chain is that good leaders know how to engage their employees’ volunteerism (Market Basket: The Power of Volunteerism And Employee Engagement).  That inspired me to post the piece on Market Basket by my co-editor, Alejandro Reuss, in our current issue (our Annual Labor Issue): The…
  • Annual Labor Issue

    Chris Sturr
    25 Sep 2014 | 3:23 pm
      We have finally sent our September/October 2014 Annual Labor Issue out to e-subscribers (print subscribers should get it within a week to ten days).  And I just posted our cover story to the website, The Future of Work, Leisure, and Consumption in an Age of Economic and Ecological Crisis, which is an interview with economist and Boston College sociology professor Juliet Schor. Here is the editors’ note from p. 2 of the issue: Unconventional Wisdom Here are some bits of “conventional wisdom” about labor relations and work in the United States today: It’s part of the…
 
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    Japan Economy Watch

  • Abenomics 2.0 - Just What Are They Trying To Achieve?

    Edward Hugh
    16 Nov 2014 | 4:13 am
    The recent move by the Bank of Japan to take further measures to accelerate the rate at which it ramps up its balance sheet took almost everyone - market watchers included - completely by surprise. The consequence was reasonably predictable - the yen has once more fallen strongly against almost all major currencies - and most notably against the USD - and Japan's main stock indexes are sharply up
  • Is Japan Back In Recession?

    Edward Hugh
    8 Oct 2014 | 8:39 am
    “People should seriously consider that Japan’s economy may have fallen into recession despite the weaker yen and a stock rally from the BOJ’s easing and the flexible fiscal policy by Abe’s administration,” said Maiko Noguchi, senior economist at Daiwa Securities. “Initial expectations that the economy could withstand the negative effects of a sales tax hike through a virtuous circle seem to be
  • Does Abenomics Work? - The Doubts Grow

    Edward Hugh
    18 Sep 2014 | 12:35 pm
    Is something in the air? Do I detect a change in consensus on the way things are going in Japan? Certainly a slew of articles have been published in the financial press over the last month questioning where the Abenomics experiment is headed for. The general conclusion seems to be that wherever it is it is certainly not the originally designated endpoint. Thus the Economist. "It is crisis mode
  • Abenomics - What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

    Edward Hugh
    14 Aug 2014 | 8:05 am
    If this week's economics news is positive then that is good.  But if it's bad then that's even better, since there is more potential for it to improve next week, and if it doesn't, well that's doubly better since there will be  even more reason for central banks to step in and push up asset prices. Maybe all this sounds peculiar, even perverse, but it would seem to be how many people working in
  • Japan Inflation At A 32 Year High?

    Edward Hugh
    29 Jun 2014 | 12:23 pm
    Just in case anyone was in any doubt last weeks newspaper  headlines blared it out for us loud and clear - Japanese inflation is back, and has even hit levels last seen in 1982. (Click on image below for better viewing). In fact consumer prices in Japan rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in May according to the Bank of Japan's preferred measure, driven higher from one month to another by the
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    Credit Slips

  • Jean Braucher, In Memoriam

    Bob Lawless
    26 Nov 2014 | 11:11 am
    It is with great sadness that I pass along the news that Jean Braucher passed away yesterday. Jean was my co-author, my co-blogger, and my friend. This news came suddenly this morning for all but her closest family and friends who were aware of her illness.  The official record will show that Jean was a giant among bankruptcy and contracts scholars. Her work on local legal culture in bankruptcy courts is one of the standard references on the topic. As Dov Cohen and I were trying to understand the disparities we were seeing in our data among local bankruptcy courts, we turned to Jean. She…
  • Some Bibles Are More Exemptable Than Others

    Jason Kilborn
    21 Nov 2014 | 2:16 pm
    I wonder how many Bankruptcy professors have posed a hypothetical about the exemption of a rare Bible worth lots of money? Well, a federal District Court in Illinois had to answer the question for real. The Illinois personal property exemption statute includes the debtor's Bible. A debtor in Southern Illinois asserted this exemption in a rare, first-edition Mormon Bible that she had acquired (for free) from her local library. Apparently, the library director had not been paying attention, as the 1830 Bible was appraised at at least $10,000. Amusingly, the debtor's lawyer described…
  • Rent Control in New York and Bankruptcy

    Stephen Lubben
    20 Nov 2014 | 5:54 pm
    Following up on my prior post, the New York Court of Appeals has ruled that a rent stabilized appartment is a public benefit, rather than an asset.
  • Detroit's Bankruptcy: The Conversation

    Melissa Jacoby
    20 Nov 2014 | 10:25 am
    Readers who have not otherwise received notice in the twittersphere may be interested in this commentary at The Conversation.
  • Are Some Banks Using Credit Reports to Help Collect Discharged Debts?

    Dalié Jiménez
    18 Nov 2014 | 10:19 am
    Last week, Adam pointed us to a NYT's story on "zombie debt" after bankruptcy. I did a bit more research into the story because I had a hard time understanding the problem from the article. There are a few lawsuits that have been filed about this (I found ones against GE Capital/Synchrony, Bank of America/FIA Card Svcs, Citigroup, and Chase). The GE complaint alleges that the banks have a systematic practice of "selling and attempting to collect discharged debts and ... failing to update and correct credit information to credit reporting agencies to show that such debts…
 
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    The Aleph Blog » The Aleph Blog

  • Lagging Long Yields

    David Merkel
    22 Nov 2014 | 8:55 pm
    I’m a very intellectually curious person — I could spend most of my time researching investing questions if I had the resources to do that and that alone.  This post at the blog will be a little more wonky than most.  If you don’t like reading about bonds, Fed Policy, etc., you can skip down to the conclusion and read that.This post stems from an investigation of mine, and two recent articles that made me say, “Okay, time to publish the investigation.”  The investigation in question was over whether yield curves move in parallel shifts or not, thus justifying…
  • It’s Their Money

    David Merkel
    22 Nov 2014 | 12:38 am
    Photo Credit: Richard.AsiaRecently, I had a client leave me.  I’m not sure why he did — I didn’t ask, because that’s his business.  It *is* his money, after all, not mine.  After deducting the accrued fee, I thanked him for his business, and wished him well.I try to be low pressure in my work.  I also try to discourage the idea that if someone uses my services, they will do better than the average, much less phenomenally.  I remind potential clients of what happened to stocks in the Great Depression (down almost 90% during a period in 1929-1932).  I ask potential…
  • The No-Lose Line

    David Merkel
    19 Nov 2014 | 2:01 am
    How long can you hold a Treasury Note or Bond, and not suffer a loss in total return terms, if yields rise from where they are today?  Maybe the answer will surprise you, and maybe not — it depends on how fixed-income literate you are.Okay, here’s the scenario: I start off with the current yield curve for 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year Treasuries (0.51%, 1.61%, 2.32% and 3.04%).  I make the following assumptions:Annual Coupon Payment at the end of the year (at the current bond equivalent yield)The bonds are priced at par, so they are current coupon bonds.They are new bonds with the…
  • Is This Legit?

    David Merkel
    12 Nov 2014 | 1:55 am
    Photo Credit: .SilentMode || Doubts that the deal is legitimate?I’ve written a lot about financial fraud at Aleph Blog.  I try to encourage people to be skeptical, because it is genuinely rare when a deal is exceptionally good for an average person.  Most of the time in life, you are doing pretty well if you are getting a fair deal, particularly when it comes to financial matters.  Most people selling financial products know more about the product than the prospective buyer.Thus, Aleph Blog has written about a wide number of deals that are bad, and those that are outright…
  • Book Review: Bad Paper

    David Merkel
    11 Nov 2014 | 2:02 am
    This book has two significant types of insights: on people and on market failure.  It does well with both of them, but spends most of its time on the former, because it is more interesting.  That said, the second set is more important, and is buried in a few places in the second half of the book.With people, this book answers the following questions:Why does this book largely take place in Buffalo, NY? Because entrepreneurs got started there, and found it easy to acquire talent there.Why does the industry employ a lot of ex-convicts? There are some crossover benefits to having been through…
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    Quoting the Crisis

  • Infographic Visualizes Which Countries are the World’s...

    23 Nov 2014 | 1:06 am
    Infographic Visualizes Which Countries are the World’s Happiest Sara Barnes, mymodernmet.com Which country is the happiest in the world? To find the answer, you simply need to look at this infographic published by MoveHub.com, a resource for people who want to live abroad. They visualized the data of Happy Planet Index (HPI), which shows …
  • A Major Long-Term Change In The Labor Market Is Bad News For The...

    23 Nov 2014 | 12:56 am
    A Major Long-Term Change In The Labor Market Is Bad News For The US Economy Shane Ferro, businessinsider.com The US just isn’t as dynamic as it used to be, and we need to start thinking hard about how that affects the economy.That’s the conclusion from Steven Davis and John Haltiwanger, two National Bureau of Economic Research economists (Davis is at …
  • Maurice Greenberg puts U.S. handling of AIG bailout on trial By...

    9 Nov 2014 | 8:03 am
    Maurice Greenberg puts U.S. handling of AIG bailout on trial By Dean Starkman, latimes.com Maurice R. Greenberg, the ousted chief executive of American International Group Inc., was practically laughed out of New York for claiming that he and other shareholders were shortchanged by the U.S. government’s $182-billion bailout of AIG.No…
  • Why Monopolistic Pension Funds Undermine Capitalism

    6 Oct 2014 | 12:53 pm
    Why Monopolistic Pension Funds Undermine Capitalism: Roger Martin, hbr.org Peter Drucker was right, as he repeatedly was, when he foresaw in 1976 the emergence of pension funds as the most powerful wielder of capital in the modern economy. In his unique way he gave the story a neat twist by arguing that pension funds wou…
  • CEOs Get Paid Too Much, According to Pretty Much Everyone in the...

    23 Sep 2014 | 9:17 pm
    CEOs Get Paid Too Much, According to Pretty Much Everyone in the World Gretchen Gavett, hbr.org Rumblings of discontent about executive wages, the 1%, and wealth gaps know no borders. And neither does fierce debate about income inequality in general. But until now, it’s been relatively unclear how much people think CEOs should really make…
 
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    24/7 Wall St.

  • The 52-Week Low Club for Wednesday

    Paul Ausick
    26 Nov 2014 | 1:05 pm
    November 26, 2014: Here are four stocks among the 76 equities making new 52-week lows today. SeaDrill Ltd. (NYSE: SDRL) dropped about 22.7% today to post a new 52-week low of $16.00. The stock’s...
  • The 4 Stocks That Narrowed Wednesday’s DJIA Gain

    Paul Ausick
    26 Nov 2014 | 1:01 pm
    November 26, 2014: Markets opened higher on Wednesday but a blizzard of economic data sent the DJIA into the red where it spent the rest of the day. Trading was thin today ahead of tomorrow’s...
  • Analyst Trims Crude Oil Price, E&P Firms’ EPS Estimates

    Paul Ausick
    26 Nov 2014 | 9:55 am
    Lower crude oil prices typically mean lower profits for exploration & production (E&P) companies, and this time around is no different. The recent sharp drop in crude prices has generated a...
  • Colder Weather Ups Natural Gas Demand, Weighs on Prices

    Paul Ausick
    26 Nov 2014 | 9:17 am
    The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Friday morning that U.S. natural gas stocks decreased by 162 billion cubic feet for the week ending November 21st, compared with an expected...
  • Consumer Sentiment Upbeat on Job, Income Expectations

    Paul Ausick
    26 Nov 2014 | 8:40 am
    The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose from a final October reading of 86.9 to a final November reading of 88.8, down from the preliminary November reading of 89.4....
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    The Baseline Scenario

  • Obamacare, Taxes, United Airlines, and My Tea Infuser

    James Kwak
    17 Nov 2014 | 2:02 pm
    By James Kwak Over at Medium, I just posted a new article about the Jonathan Gruber-Obamacare “scandal.” Republicans are highlighting Gruber’s remarks as proof that the individual mandate really is a tax, and that the administration hid that fact in order to put one over on the public. But this whole argument flows from a faulty premise: that whether something is a tax or not is a question that has a knowable answer. Last week I wrote a post complaining about my dismal experiences on United Airlines, which I chalk up to two things. The first is miserable computer systems.
  • A Conference On Finance For Everyone Else

    Simon Johnson
    31 Oct 2014 | 9:22 am
    By Simon Johnson It is hard to move around in Washington these days without bumping into a conference on the future of finance. But most of these are either closed to the public, or run on behalf of large banks as part of their lobbying efforts. Next week, there will be a conference open to everyone at George Washington University to discuss where we really are on financial reform, and what still needs to be done. You should register in advance through the web page (link given above), but there is no cost to attend. Featured speakers include Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve…
  • No, You Can’t Get a Drink at 5 AM

    James Kwak
    16 Oct 2014 | 5:28 am
    By James Kwak I’m in the United Club at SFO waiting for a flight, and the bar is closed until 8. So much for business travel. I just published a post over at Medium that is really about two things: how both airline marketers and on-campus recruiters perpetuate the idea that air travel is glamorous, even when all of us know that it isn’t. It’s sort of a sequel to one of my favorite posts of those I’ve written, “Why Do Harvard Kids Head to Wall Street?” which I think is the one Paul Tough mentioned in his book about grit. Now that it’s recruiting…
  • Cultural Capture and the Financial Crisis

    James Kwak
    9 Oct 2014 | 6:27 am
    By James Kwak A few years ago, while still in law school, I was invited to write a chapter for a Tobin Project book on regulatory capture. It was a bit intimidating, being part of a project that included luminaries like David Moss, Dan Carpenter, Luigi Zingales, Richard Posner, Tino Cuellar, and the deans of two of the best law schools in the country. I was asked to write something about an idea that I had slipped into 13 Bankers, almost in passing, about the cultural prestige of the financial industry and the political and regulatory benefits the industry derived from that prestige. My…
  • Game of Thrones, The Wire, and the New York Fed

    James Kwak
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:07 am
    By James Kwak I wrote a column that went up this morning at The Atlantic about the ProPublica/This American Life story about the New York Fed. The gist of the argument is that we all knew the New York Fed was captured; for people like Tim Geithner, that’s a feature, not a bug. There was a paragraph in my original draft that I really liked, but I can completely understand why the editors didn’t want it: “When Tyrion Lannister wants his son killed, he sentences him to death in public. When Avon Barksdale wants potential incriminating witnesses killed, he obliquely lets his…
 
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    Trends... Find them, ride them and get off.

  • Nasdaq 10,000 by 2016

    Howard Lindzon
    19 Nov 2014 | 12:14 am
    I have had a fantastic week of work in London. All of it off the telco grid. I have survived on wifi, paper maps and friends. Last night I got to hang with my good friend Yoni Assia (world travelere based in Israel), founder of Etoro (an amazing and almost global brokerage which I am investor in) who was wildly bullish on Bitcoin in 2009 at 20 cents. He begged me to own some while I was visiting Israel. I did not. Last night he used my Robinhood account to buy 1 share of Apple on my Robinhood iPhone app with the flick of a finger. He shared it into my stream to embarrass me. This classic…
  • Peak America? Peak Internet Freedom? Peak Lindzon?

    Howard Lindzon
    16 Nov 2014 | 3:50 am
    As confident as I am in the social revolution and boom….I worry about all of the above in the title as I travel for a month talking to Stocktwits customers. Fun facts about global markets at this point in time: 1. The US markets are at all-time highs (software and biotech continue to lead) 2. Oil has dropped below $80/barrel for the first time in years. Restaurant, retail and consumer good stocks are rocketing. 3. Apple has a larger market capitalization than all of Russia’s stock market. 4. Alibaba and Baidu (I am long BIDU in the SL50) are the first two Chinese companies I call…
  • CNBC – Fire Mark Hoffman

    Howard Lindzon
    4 Nov 2014 | 6:23 am
    Yesterday, Jim Cramer ended up in my Twitter stream somehow ranting about how Twitter needs to fire Dick Costolo. The stock has struggled of late for sure and management changes are happening in droves. When CNBC does decide to talk about stocks and companies, it’s as an armchair quarterback, because the talking heads have not for the most part run their own businesses. Jim has some experience draining market value from The Street since 1999, so he would know about failed exec teams and boards. The Street has seen the stock peak at $47 in 1999 and settle in comfortably at $2 today.
  • My Predictions for 2015….Quantitative Socialism

    Howard Lindzon
    2 Nov 2014 | 7:33 pm
    Before I dive into the madness, sit back, take a deep breath and listen to Howard Stern interview Jim Carey for an hour. Instant classic. I grew up sneaking into Toronto comedy clubs watching Jim do impressions when he was 14. ok… As Japan picks up the baton on ‘Quantitative Easing’, the US scorecard that the fed and Obama will point to stands like this: So final score on QE: Stocks at all-time highs. Unemployment below 6%. Gold at 4-year lows. Inflation non-existent. — Joseph Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) October 31, 2014 But, everyone is mad. Mad at Capitalism,…
  • The Biotech Boom …Too Late to Buy?…and Why Everyone Should Allocate to Trend Followers…

    Howard Lindzon
    23 Oct 2014 | 8:28 am
    If being right and not making money is a sin…I am going to hell. A very hot part of it. Every year I underperform in the markets. Not the averages, just my abilities based on the opportunities. I buy too late, I sell to soon. I am at mostly at peace with it because of the opportunities. They just keep coming. Staying in the business has been the way I have operated since 1998 when I started my hedge fund and thought it would be my life work. Sixteen years later I still have most of my original limited partners. They know I have distractions and flaws and I could probably be better at…
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    Information Arbitrage

  • Crowdfunding for start-ups: A durable trend or a bull market phenomenon?

    23 Nov 2014 | 2:44 pm
    Angel investing is red hot as is the concept of crowdfunding start up investment. Part of this phenomenon has been driven by the emergence of AngelList, the brainchild of Naval Ravikant. What started out as a way for a curated set of angels to invest in startups posting on the AngelList site has expanded to include the notion of Syndicates, investor groups headed by prominent angels who deploy capital pledged by themselves and others in a manner akin to a GP/LP construct. Syndicates have been thought by some to be directly competitive with venture capitalists, initially Micro VCs but then…
  • Financial interaction: the next generation

    25 Feb 2014 | 2:43 pm
    I have spent over 25 years creating, processing and analyzing financial transactions. I like studying them - a lot - whether an outgrowth of my time on Wall Street helping sophisticated entities manage risks, or through IA Ventures’ investments in Simple, TransferWise, and BillGuard. Transactions are fundamentally about people interacting with other people, and are initiated at the speed of real life. But at one time or another they have to touch our byzantine, outmoded, friction-filled financial architecture, and get completed at the speed of banks. Charting the path of a transaction…
  • IA Ventures: Reflections on 2013

    3 Jan 2014 | 12:28 pm
    2013 was a very different kind of year for IA Ventures. While the years 2010-12 were characterized by 8-10 new investments per year, in 2013 we invested in only three new companies: Data Robot; Digital Ocean (DO) and Sight Machine (SM). Digital Ocean and Sight Machine were lead-managed investments (though we partnered with OATV and Mark Jacobsen on SM), while Data Robot was done alongside the leadership of Chris Lynch and our friends at Atlas Venture. We are extremely happy with our three new partnerships, and Digital Ocean and Sight Machine represented two of the largest initial investments…
  • "If you can’t do something willingly and joyfully, then don’t do it. If you give up...

    16 Dec 2013 | 5:05 am
    "If you can’t do something willingly and joyfully, then don’t do it. If you give up drinking, don’t go moaning about it; go back on the bottle. Do. As. Thou. Wilt."  - The late Peter O’Toole
  • Venture Capital and "Innovation"

    15 Dec 2013 | 6:41 pm
    Many have recently been critical of the role of the venture industry in financing “true innovation.” The narrative goes something like this: “VCs are like lemmings, flocking to the latest consumer wave (mobile chat, ride-sharing, etc.) in search of explosive short-term hits. This is not how the venture industry is supposed to operate.” This story line is further reinforced by the extreme pain felt by high-profile clean-tech investors, causing the burned to rotate away from an area of hard-science believed to be essential for the future of our planet. I mean, if VCs…
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    Economic Principals

  • An Especially Good Chronicler of Ukraine’s “Costly European Dream”

    dw
    23 Nov 2014 | 1:30 pm
    No one was surprised when the broadcast television networks decided not to carry President Obama’s speech Thursday evening. The networks aren’t The Networks any longer.  Everyone remembers a moment when they first decided they needed cable television, too. By offering superior content, cable reduced commercial television’s revenue stream, its ambitions, and its status.  The networks remain a profitable and potent opinion-making business, but Thursday evening it was easy for them to prefer their peak advertising revenues and leave the television broadcast to PBS and the cable news…
  • The Fourth Generation in Chicago

    dw
    16 Nov 2014 | 12:35 pm
    CHICAGO — A remarkable conjunction occurred here last spring, somewhere between a concatenation and coincidence. Gary Becker, of the University of Chicago, died unexpectedly, in May, at 83, from complications following ulcer surgery. In June, Glen Weyl, 29, anointed Becker’s successor as expositor of Chicago’s most distinctive tradition, published a prospectus for “A Short Summary of Price Theory.” That same month, the Department of Economics moved from hand-me-down quarters to a newly refurbished building of its own, complete with cloud-capped tower, nevertheless dwarfed by the…
  • A Few Good Things

    dw
    9 Nov 2014 | 4:26 pm
    Economists have written any number of popular introductions to their field – Armchair Economist, Undercover Economist, Naked Economist, Economic Naturalist’s Field Guide,  Freakonomics, From Here to Economy and Tradeoffs all come to mind – but seldom do economists write about their own experience of the craft. That’s why, as an economic journalist with some familiarity with the profession, I so liked The Apprentice Economist: Seven Steps to Mastery, by Filip Palda, of École Nationale d’Administration Publique, the public policy school of the University of Quebec. The voice is…
  • Meet Elmus Wicker

    dw
    2 Nov 2014 | 12:27 pm
    BLOOMINGTON, IND. – Some professors find a second wind when they stop teaching.  Norman Mclean wrote A River Runs Through It after he retired from the University of Chicago, in 1973. Fifteen years later, he published a sequel, Young Men and Fire.   Samuel Hynes, of Princeton University, with The Unsubstantial Air: American Fliers in the First World War, has a hit on his hands – at 90!  Charles P. Kindleberger published Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises after becoming emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1976 and then kept writing for…
  • Economic Principals is Traveling

    dw
    26 Oct 2014 | 2:30 pm
    EP is on the road, attending conferences, and will return next week. dw Share/Bookmark
 
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    Marginal REVOLUTION

  • Keynes is slowly losing (winning?)

    Tyler Cowen
    26 Nov 2014 | 9:48 pm
    Paul Krugman has an interesting blog post arguing that Keynes is slowly winning.  But, I must admit, I find it dismaying how little of the contrary evidence is considered.  Let’s say you set out to write a blog post about Keynes losing, what might you cite?: 1. Keynesians predicted disaster following the American fiscal sequester, and the pace of the recovery accelerated. 2. Even Obama and the Democrats are writing down, and seeing through, budgets with declining levels of discretionary spending. 3. The UK saw a rapid recovery, and the BOE kept nominal gdp growing at a good pace, even…
  • Many workers will end up above-average too

    Tyler Cowen
    26 Nov 2014 | 2:31 pm
    …of those in middle-skill occupations who remain in a full-time job, about 83 percent are still working in a middle-skill job one year later. … What types of jobs are the other 17 percent getting? Mostly high-skill jobs; and that transition rate has been rising. The percent going from a middle-skill job to a high-skill job is close to 13 percent: up about 1 percent relative to before the recession. The percent transitioning into low-skill positions is lower: about 3.4 percent, up about 0.3 percentage point compared to before the recession. This transition to a high-skill…
  • The referenda that are Swiss

    Tyler Cowen
    26 Nov 2014 | 7:56 am
    The most contentious may be one put forward by a group called Ecopop, which would limit immigration to 0.2 per cent of the resident population. That has alarmed businesses, who worry it would make it harder to hire skilled staff and sour relations with the EU, which is Switzerland’s largest export market. Another initiative would force the central bank to hold 20 per cent of its assets in gold, as well as ban it from selling any of its holdings of the metal. Gold bug supporters say it would strengthen Switzerland’s independence but the central bank has warned it will make harder its job…
  • Assorted links

    Tyler Cowen
    26 Nov 2014 | 6:46 am
    1. What happens when China pledges zero emissions.  And financial repression is easing in China. 2. The strange world of computer-generated novels.  And are board games back? 3. “Dogs use a very smart (mechanism) to optimize their drinking,…”  Cats too. 4. MIE: James Watson is selling his Nobel Prize. 5. Daniel Pink’s Crowd Control tries to bring behavioral economics to TV.  And Ben Powell’s TV show.
  • When did Korea clean up its air? (Korea fact of the day)

    Tyler Cowen
    25 Nov 2014 | 10:54 pm
    If you are going to ask “when will China clean up its air?”, you might wish to look at South Korea, a country with a broadly similar industrial profile, although of course Korea is much further along in terms of economic development. As of 2002, South Korea was ranked 120th of 122 countries for air quality by the World Economic Forum.  And at that time South Korea was pretty much a fully developed nation, economically speaking that is.  South Korea was also already a democracy, and we know from Casey Mulligan (with Gil and Sala-i-Martin) that democracies tend to have cleaner air…
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    Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

  • For the (Super-Long) Weekend: the Ultimate Thanksgiving Movie Is: Addams Family Values

    J. Bradford DeLong
    26 Nov 2014 | 5:01 pm
  • Wednesday Cognitive Science Blogging: What Are the Odds Princeton's David Lewis Understands Probability Properly?

    J. Bradford DeLong
    26 Nov 2014 | 12:11 pm
    I know this is fairly dense. But please bear with me: David Lewis: Sleeping Beauty: Reply to Elga: "Researchers at the Experimental Philosophy Laboratory... Sleeping Beauty... ...On Sunday evening they will put her to sleep [P-]. On Monday they will awaken her briefly. At first they will not tell her what day it is [P], but later they will tell her that it is Monday [P+]. Then they will subject her to memory erasure. Perhaps they will again awaken her briefly on Tuesday... depend[ing] on the toss of a fair coin: if heads they will awaken her only on Monday, if tails they will awaken her on…
  • Liveblogging World War II: November 26, 1944: Eleanor Roosevelt

    J. Bradford DeLong
    26 Nov 2014 | 7:49 am
    Eleanor Roosevelt: My Day: Today is a peaceful day in the country. The usual occupations, a walk in the woods, much writing and reading, are all that I can report. As we read our newspapers today, I pray that the valor of our men in their determined attacks will finally discourage the enemy. These attacks are costing much in the way of ammunition, planes, guns, tanks, etc., as well as our boys' lives. It is for that reason that General Eisenhower begs the people at home not to let up in their production. Those of us who have sons on the fighting fronts realize what the work of the people at…
  • Legacy vs. Internet Media Once More: Live from La Farine

    J. Bradford DeLong
    25 Nov 2014 | 6:36 pm
    With respect to: Zumb: I've been thinking about what: "I don't doubt Shane's encounter with her former colleagues... ...but I still found the story a little bit off from what I've personally experienced.... Shane mentions that she thinks the pendulum is about to swing the other direction and she envisions talking to people at legacy organizations in a few years and saying 'You're still there? Really?!?!' I'd say 'You're still there? Really?!?!' has already probably been the single most common question anyone at a legacy news organization has gotten over the previous decade. The past decade…
  • Noted for Your Evening Procrastination for November 25, 2014

    J. Bradford DeLong
    25 Nov 2014 | 4:06 pm
    Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog European Economic Integration: The Rebalancing Challenge in Europe: Monday Focus A Question for Richard Koo: Daily Focus Over at Project Syndicate: Economic Growth and the Information Age: Daily Focus Lars E. O. Svensson: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Jonathan Cohn: Obama's Immigration Order: A Vote for American Exceptionalism Nicholas Bagley: Three Words and the Future of the Affordable Care Act Nick Bunker: Are big businesses slowing wage growth? Nick Bunker: An appreciation of Robert Solow Carter Price: What’s the link between corporate…
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    99% Invisible

  • 142- And The Winner Is

    Roman Mars
    25 Nov 2014 | 8:21 pm
    There’s a little trophy shop called Aardvark Laser Engraving  down the street from our office in Oakland. Its small but bustling, and its windows are stuffed to the brim with awards made of all kinds of materials and in any shape you can imagine. There are chalices, orbs, golfers, gavels, apples, and plaques. Plenty of plaques. They’re engraved to award the Club DJ of the Year, the newest member of a local Freemason branch, one mysterious trophy just says “Rifle Expert,” and there are plenty of heartfelt engravings to spouses, family members, and retiring co-workers. For this…
  • 141- Three Records from Sundown

    Roman Mars
    18 Nov 2014 | 10:59 pm
    This week on the show we’re presenting one of our favorite radio features, “Three Records from Sundown,” about singer Nick Drake. The documentary, by producer Charles Maynes, retraces the roots of Drake’s legend through interviews with Drake’s producer, Joe Boyd. Boyd signed Nick Drake to Island records when Drake was just 20 years old. The first album they recorded together was Five Leaves Left, released in 1968. Three Records from Sundown
  • 140- Vexillonaire

    Roman Mars
    11 Nov 2014 | 11:11 pm
    Vexillologists—those who study flags—tend to fall into one of two schools of thought. The first is one that focuses on history, category, and usage, and maintains that vexillologists should be scholars and historians of all flags, regardless of their designs. The other school of vexillology, however, maintains that not all flags are created equal, and that flags can and should be redesigned, and improved. Ted Kaye of the Portland Flag Association—the largest subnational flag organization in the country—is one such vexillologist. Kaye has a word for these activist vexillologists of his…
  • 139- Edge of Your Seat

    Roman Mars
    4 Nov 2014 | 2:18 pm
    “A Chair is a difficult object. A skyscraper is almost easier.” — Mies van der Rohe. The chair presents an interesting design challenge, because it is an object that disappears when in use. The person replaces the chair. So chairs need to look fantastic when empty, and remain invisible (and comfortable) while in use. Edge of Your Seat Donate to the Radiotopia Kickstarter
  • 138- O-U-I-J-A

    Roman Mars
    28 Oct 2014 | 11:37 am
    The Ouija board is so simple and iconic that it looks like it comes from another time, or maybe another realm. The game is not as ancient as it was designed to look, but those two arched rows of letters have been spooking people for over 125 years. Actually, the roots of the board go back even farther, according to Ouija historian Robert Murch. To understand where Ouija boards (generically called “talking boards”) come from, you have to go back to middle of the 1800s, to three sisters in New York… This story was adapted from a piece by Linda Rodriguez McRobbie which originally…
 
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    Eat the Bankers.com

  • Time For Pie

    Sinclair Noe
    26 Nov 2014 | 3:02 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 12 = 17,827 SPX + 5 = 2072 NAS + 29 = 4787 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.23% OIL – .35 = 73.75 GOLD – 3.20 = 1199.00 SILV – .13 = 16.64 Another record high close for the Dow Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index. That’s the 47th record high for the S&P this year. Volume was light, heading into the holiday. The markets will be open for a half day on Friday, but volume will be incredibly light. Yesterday we told you about the New York Fed report that consumers were taking on more debt; household debt increased $78 billion in the…
  • Faster and Faster but No Liftoff

    Sinclair Noe
    25 Nov 2014 | 3:15 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 2 = 17,814 SPX – 2 = 2067 NAS+ 3 = 4758 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.26% OIL – 1.95 = 74.22 GOLD + 2.90 = 1202.20 SILV + .20 = 16.77 The major stock indices couldn’t close at records, but Apple reached a milestone today. Apple’s market capitalization hit a record $700 billion; that’s double from 3 years ago when Tim Cook became CEO. Apple is the first S&P 500 company to ever reach a $700 billion market cap. Yet, on an inflation-adjusted basis, it still has way to go to be the most valuable company of all time. Microsoft’s market…
  • Test Results Are In

    Sinclair Noe
    24 Nov 2014 | 3:16 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 7 = 17,817 SPX + 5 = 2069 NAS + 41 = 4754 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.31% OIL – .81 = 75.70 GOLD – 3.80 = 1199.30 SILV + .02 = 16.57 The S&P 500 has gained 11% since bottoming out in a slump that stretched from mid-September to mid-October. The rally has been driven by a belief that central bank actions in Europe, China and Japan will help invigorate global economic growth. On Friday, China’s central bank lowered a key interest rate and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he was willing to step up the bank’s efforts to…
  • Josh Linkner

    Sinclair Noe
    23 Nov 2014 | 8:29 am
    Listen to Sinclair Noe interview Josh Linkner. The Road to Reinvention: How to Drive Disruption and Accelerate Transformation by Josh Linkner. For more information or to buy the book, click here: The Road to Reinvention: How to Drive Disruption and Accelerate Transformation by Josh Linkner. Companies, communities, and individuals fall for many reasons, but one of the most common—and easily avoidable—is the failure to reinvent. When people and organizations rest on prior successes rather than driving purposeful transformation, they discover too late that they have lost their market…
  • Stewart Friedman

    Sinclair Noe
    23 Nov 2014 | 8:21 am
    Listen to Sinclair Noe audio interview with Stewart Friedman. Leading the Life You Want: Skills for Integrating Work and Life by Stewart Friedman. For more information on the book or to purchase the book, click here: Leading the Life You Want: Skills for Integrating Work and Life by Stewart Friedman “For nearly thirty years, my life’s work has been to help people like you find ways to bring the often warring aspects of life into greater harmony.” — Stew Friedman, from Leading the Life You Want You’re busy trying to lead a “full” life. But does it really feel full—or are you…
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    iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

  • Challenges Ahead: Managing Spillovers

    iMFdirect
    26 Nov 2014 | 7:00 am
    By Olivier Blanchard, Luc Laeven, and Esteban Vesperoni The last five years have been a reminder of the importance of interconnections and risks in the global economy. They have triggered intense discussions on the optimal way to combine fiscal, monetary, and financial policies to deal with spillovers, and on the need and the scope for coordination of such policies. The IMF’s 15th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, which took place in Washington DC on November 13 and 14, 2014, focused on Cross-Border Spillovers, and took stock of what we know and do not know.  The summary below…
  • Acting Collectively: A Better Way to Restructure Government Debt

    iMFdirect
    24 Nov 2014 | 7:28 am
    By Sean Hagan  (version in Español) To restructure or not to restructure? That is a question few governments would like to face. Yet, if a country does find itself with an unsustainable debt burden, one way or another, it will have to be restructured. And if that time comes, it is better for the debtor, creditors, and the entire financial system that the restructuring be carried out in a prompt, predictable, and orderly manner. The global financial crisis ushered in a new wave of sovereign debt crises that has reinvigorated discussions over the current framework for sovereign debt…
  • Growth: An Essential Part of a Cure for Unemployment

    iMFdirect
    19 Nov 2014 | 7:17 am
    By Davide Furceri and Prakash Loungani (version in Español, Français, 中文, Русский,  عربي,  日本語) Unemployment is a global problem. If the unemployed formed their own country, it would be the fifth largest in the world. Of the nearly 200 million people around the world looking for work, half are in emerging markets and about a quarter in advanced economies, reflecting the growing weight of emerging markets in the global labor force (Figure 1). What can be done to lower unemployment? For advanced economies, economists have long advocated a simple cure: more growth.
  • Building a Camaraderie of Central Bankers: How Monetary Policymakers in the Caucasus and Central Asia Can Learn From Each Other

    iMFdirect
    17 Nov 2014 | 7:40 am
    By Min Zhu (Versions in 中文, Русский) The world’s central bankers are certainly in the news these days. Not a week goes by without the Fed, the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan taking big and often unprecedented actions to fight deflation, preserve financial stability, or address mediocre growth. We tend to forget, however, that these are not the only central banks that are struggling to adapt their policies to changing circumstances in our connected world. Take the Caucasus and Central Asia — Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan,…
  • Understanding Spillovers

    iMFdirect
    12 Nov 2014 | 7:00 am
    By Olivier Blanchard, Luc Laeven and Esteban Vesperoni The global crisis—which challenged paradigms about the functioning of financial markets and had significant consequences in other markets—and the sluggish recovery since 2009, are a reminder of the importance of understanding interconnections and risks in the global economy. The increasing trend in global trade, and even more significant, in cross-border financial activities, suggests that spillovers can take many different forms. The understanding of transmission channels of spillovers has become essential, not only from an academic…
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    WordPress.com News

  • Black Friday Special: A Year of Unlimited Premium Themes

    Ran
    26 Nov 2014 | 12:00 pm
    Our Black Friday special is a great way to get your blog ready for the new year. This weekend, every purchase of WordPress.com Premium will include a free year of unlimited access to all our premium themes — a $120 USD value — so you can use any theme at no extra cost. The special sale starts just after midnight on Friday, November 28th, and ends just before midnight, on Monday, December 1st, for all time zones. That’s right: this year, our offer will go live on Black Friday and remain in effect through Cyber Monday, and will be available on these dates across the globe,…
  • Explore Longform with Writing 201

    Michelle W.
    21 Nov 2014 | 7:00 am
    We often think of blog posts as being just a few paragraphs long, or being a “less serious” kind of writing. Not so! In this challenge, we’ll focus on writing longform pieces that are equally at home on your blog or in a magazine. Whether you have trouble organizing your thoughts in longer pieces of writing or simply want to challenge yourself as a blogger, Writing 201: Beyond the Blog Post can help. What is Writing 201: Beyond the Blog Post? Writing 201: Beyond the Blog Post is a four-week course to help those beginning to explore longform writing (or who are frustrated…
  • Just Released: New Blogging U. Ebooks

    Ben Huberman
    10 Nov 2014 | 8:00 am
    Our recent Writing 101 and Writing 201 Blogging U. courses were a huge success — so we thought you should be able to enjoy them even if your schedule didn’t allow you to take them in real time. We’re happy to announce that both courses are now offered as free ebooks, available for download in .pdf, .mobi (Kindle), and .epub (iBooks) formats. While conceived with nonfiction writers in mind, fiction writers (we know you’re out there, NaNoWriMo participants!) could find both courses just as useful. Which ebook should you choose? Writing 101: Build a Blogging Habit…
  • Emoji Everywhere 🎃

    Marcus Kazmierczak
    6 Nov 2014 | 3:05 pm
    Emoji? What are they? “Emoji” is a Japanese term meaning “picture character.” It’s a standard for showing smileys and other little symbols inside text. But unlike traditional smileys that are made up of a sequence of letters like , every emoji has its own letter. Emoji blossomed on smartphones, where quickly picking out an emoji is often faster than typing out a long sentence. Today we’re rolling out hundreds and hundreds of emoji across WordPress.com — 872 to be exact. Do they look familiar? That’s because Twitter has graciously decided to open-source their entire set,…
  • New Themes: Editor and Sequential

    David A. Kennedy
    6 Nov 2014 | 7:16 am
    Today, we have two new free themes ready for you! Editor Meet Editor, a new addition to our theme collection designed by Mike McAlister at Array. Geared toward personal bloggers and photo bloggers, Editor features big typography and images and a tab-based sidebar with a spot for featured posts, a site logo, and a social links menu. Editor makes it easy to put a personal stamp on your site or blog. Learn more about the free Editor theme at the Theme Showcase, or preview it by going to Appearance → Themes. Sequential Crafted by Thomas Guillot, Sequential is a contemporary, clean, and…
 
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    EconomicPolicyJournal.com

  • "The Shale Revolution Doesn't Work At $80"

    26 Nov 2014 | 6:51 pm
    Drilling for oil in 19 shale regions loses money at $75 a barrel, according to calculations by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Those areas pumped about 413,000 barrels a day, according to the latest data available from Drillinginfo Inc. and company presentations. “Everybody is trying to put a very happy spin on their ability to weather $80 oil, but a lot of that is just smoke,” said Daniel Dicker,
  • Tyler Cowen on the Swiss Gold Referendum

    26 Nov 2014 | 5:03 pm
    The commander of Koch-funded economics, Tyler Cowen , lists three quite reasonable referendums that are up for vote in Switzerland: The most contentious may be one put forward by a group called Ecopop, which would limit immigration to 0.2 per cent of the resident population. That has alarmed businesses, who worry it would make it harder to hire skilled staff and sour relations with the EU, which
  • Go Ahead Keep Raising the Minimum Wage: Here Comes DyRoS, the Humanoid Robot

    26 Nov 2014 | 3:27 pm
    A collaborative interdisciplinary team has designed a full sized humanoid bipedal robot. The robot has already been integrated into a contemporary Korean dance performance. The next step say developers is to develop the upper body. Let's see minimum wagers compete with this (via DHRC)
  • How Much of Your Thanksgiving Meal Will Have Been Spent on Politics This Year?

    26 Nov 2014 | 2:03 pm
    (Data via Open Secrets, Graphiv via US Prig)
  • The Daughter of a Bankster Wants Tips on Finding Crimes

    26 Nov 2014 | 12:32 pm
    The daughter of top bankster Jamie Dimon needs your help.  Just out of Columbia journalism school, Laura Dimon has landed a gig at the New York Daily News and is looking for assistance in finding criminal activity. She has tweeted out: I just had this sent to her as a tip.
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    Carl Futia

  • Guesstimates on November 26, 2014

    26 Nov 2014 | 6:02 am
    December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2062-72. The next reaction will probably be 45-50 points.  It will probably begin from the 2090 target.QQQ: Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00 TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 118-120. Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 120.January Crude:   I think the longer term trend in oil prices is…
  • Guesstimates on November 25, 2014

    25 Nov 2014 | 5:54 am
    December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2068-2078. The next reaction will probably be 45-50 points.  But it will probably begin from the 2090 target instead of from Friday’s high as I had thought.QQQ: Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00 TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 118-120. Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 120.January Crude:…
  • Guesstimates on November 24, 2014

    24 Nov 2014 | 5:57 am
    December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2064-2074. The next reaction will probably be 45-50 points.  Even so the market is headed for my 2090 target and probably higher than that.QQQ: Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00 TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 118-120. Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 120.January Crude:   I think the…
  • Guesstimates on November 21, 2014

    21 Nov 2014 | 6:07 am
    December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2060-2072. The next reaction will probably be 45-50 points.  Even so the market is headed for my 2090 target and probably higher than that.QQQ: Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00 TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 118-120. Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 120.January Crude:   I think the…
  • Guesstimates on November 20, 2014

    20 Nov 2014 | 6:04 am
    December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2036-2048. The next reaction will probably be 45-50 points.  I had thought that this would start from about 2050 and the market reached that level Tuesday. But so far there is no sign of concentrated selling and until such selling begins I think the ES will move higher. In any case the market is headed for my 2090 target and probably higher than that.QQQ: Upside target at 102 has been reached. Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00 TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00%…
 
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    True Economics

  • 27/11/2014: QNHS Q3 2014: Employed, Unemployed & Retired

    26 Nov 2014 | 10:00 pm
    Key summary of the previous posts is:Unemployment is falling across all durations and all demographic (age-defined) cohorts, but the pressure of long-term unemployment is rising in the cohort of older workers (40 years of age and older), andIrish economy added 27,600 jobs in a year though Q3 2014 compared to Q3 2013. but only 17,300 of these jobs were private sector non-agricultural jobs. On longer-term trend: Non-agricultural Private Sector employment in Q3 2014 was 13.83 lower than 2008 average and Agricultural employment was 4.9% lower. In contrast, Public and State-controlled Sectors…
  • 26/11/2014: QNHS Q3 2014: Participation and Unemployment Rates

    26 Nov 2014 | 1:08 pm
    Key summary of the two previous posts is:Unemployment is falling across all durations and all demographic (age-defined) cohorts, but the pressure of long-term unemployment is rising in the cohort of older workers (40 years of age and older), andIrish economy added 27,600 jobs in a year though Q3 2014 compared to Q3 2013. but only 17,300 of these jobs were private sector non-agricultural jobs. On longer-term trend: Non-agricultural Private Sector employment in Q3 2014 was 13.83 lower than 2008 average and Agricultural employment was 4.9% lower. In contrast, Public and State-controlled Sectors…
  • 26/11/2014: QNHS Q3 2014: Employment by Broader Sectors

    26 Nov 2014 | 12:27 pm
    In the previous post I covered the issue of unemployment duration and distribution of long-term unemployment by age cohorts (see http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ru/2014/11/26112014-qnhs-q3-2014-long-term.html).So now, lets take a look at the sectoral distribution of jobs in the economy.Across all economic sectors, employment numbers rose in Q3 2014 to 1,926,900 - a rise of 1.45% y/y (+27,600) which represents a slowdown in the rate of growth compared to Q2 2014 when employment expanded by 1.7%.On a 4 quarters average, current employment levels are at 1,906,630 and this is 2.18% ahead of the 4…
  • 26/11/2014: QNHS Q3 2014: Long-Term Unemployment

    26 Nov 2014 | 8:18 am
    As usual with QNHS release, I will be covering a number of various angles relating to the latest unemployment data in a number of posts.Let's start with duration of unemployment.Overall, some good news. Official unemployment numbers fell 13.2% y/y in Q3 2014 (a decline of 37,400) for all duration categories. However, the rate of decline has moderated in Q3 compared to Q2. In Q2 2014 y/y drop in unemployment was 15.4% (down 46,200), which means that Q3 unemployment decline was 19% lower than the same y/y decline in Q2.Across all demographic groups, unemployment with duration of less than 1…
  • 26/11/2014: Juncker Start: Making Sure No Lessons of the Crisis Have Been Learned

    26 Nov 2014 | 12:50 am
    More debt, more guarantees, more bureaucrats-administered 'help for the real economy' - it's business as usual in Brussels with the new Commission's plans for a 'EUR300bn investment fund'.Some details here: http://euobserver.com/economic/126661.And my comment here:The problems, as I outlined in the comments on twitter and to EUObserver above, are multiple:The new fund is debt-financed with EU guarantees - and we already have plenty of these schemes which de facto reallocate more and more indirect fiscal power to the Commission extra the normal budgetary procedures;The new fund is going…
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    Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

  • New Residential Construction Report: October 2014

    19 Nov 2014 | 8:33 am
    Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed mixed results with total permit activity improving while total start activity declined since September.Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased 1.4% from September to 640K single family units (SAAR), and increased 2.4% above the level seen in October 2013 but still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005.
  • Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – November 19 2014

    19 Nov 2014 | 8:25 am
    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications. The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases. The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate…
  • Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls and Civilian Unemployment October 2014

    7 Nov 2014 | 6:58 am
    Today's Employment Situation Report indicated that in October, net non-farm payrolls increased by 214,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 209,000 jobs while the civilian unemployment rate declined declined to 5.8% over the same period.Net private sector jobs increased 0.18% since last month climbing 2.24% above the level seen a year ago and climbing 1.82% above the peak level of employment seen in December 2007 prior to the Great Recession.
  • Employment Situation: Total Unemployment October 2014

    7 Nov 2014 | 6:55 am
    Today's Employment Situation report showed that in October “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers declined to 11.5% while the traditionally reported unemployment rate also improved falling to 5.8%.The traditional unemployment rate is calculated from the monthly household survey results using a fairly explicit definition of “unemployed” (essentially unemployed and currently looking for full time employment) leaving many workers to be considered effectively “on the margin” either employed in part time work when full time is preferred or simply…
  • Employment Situation: Unemployment Duration October 2014

    7 Nov 2014 | 6:52 am
    Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed were mixed in October while still remaining distressed by historic standards.Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more declined to 2.916 million or 32.0% of all unemployed workers while the median term of unemployment increased to 13.7 weeks and the average stay on unemployment increased to 32.7 weeks.
 
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    Stock Trading To Go

  • STTG Market Recap November 26, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    26 Nov 2014 | 2:19 pm
    Entering the week we noted holiday weeks are generally known for quiet, low volatility sessions with a modest upward skew - and that is exactly what we have seen this week. The S&P 500 gained 0.28% and the NASDAQ 0.61% as buyers slowly came into the market all day. Orders for U.S. business equipment such as machinery and electrical gear unexpectedly declined in October. Original post:... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap November 25, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    25 Nov 2014 | 4:50 pm
    Tuesday was a sleepy, low volatility day typical of holiday week trading. The S&P 500 fell 0.12% while the NASDAQ added 0.07%; both indexes hugged the unchanged line much of the day. Tuesday's economic reports were mixed; the Conference Board's index of consumer confidence declined to 88.7 in November from 94.1 the prior month, and the Commerce Department reported gross domestic... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap November 24, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    24 Nov 2014 | 3:26 pm
    Holiday weeks tend to usually have a modest positive bias on light volume and today was a perfect example of holiday trading. The S&P 500 lifted 0.29% and the NASDAQ 0.89%. Aside from the holidays there was still some carryover from the words and actions of central bankers overseas last week. The S&P 500 trades at 17.2 times its projected earnings, up from a multiple of 15.5... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap November 21, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    21 Nov 2014 | 6:51 pm
    U.S. indexes gapped up sharply Friday morning and while they gave back some of those gains later in the day finished with a solid move upward. The S&P 500 added 0.52% and the NASDAQ 0.24%. As has been the case for much of the past 7 years today's move was driven by central bankers - both in Europe and China.First in Europe, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he will do... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap November 20, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    20 Nov 2014 | 5:04 pm
    Thursday's inter-day action was more typical of a bull market than some we've seen this week as we had a down open met immediately with dip buyers. Indexes finishes near the highs of the day with the S&P 500 up 0.20% and the NASDAQ 0.56%. The S&P 500 closed at a record for the 44th time this year. All economic data Thursday was to the positive:The Philly Fed Index posted 40.8... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
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    Peter Gallagher

  • Can multilateralism be revived?

    pwg
    16 Nov 2014 | 3:49 pm
    Shawn Donnan at the FT says that it needs a healthier life-style. Multilateralism is weaker than it has ever been. But, in trade, it has never been as robust as it seemed on the surface. For now, I doubt there is a reasonable prospect it can be revived in its original form. Instead, we should […]
  • Is a plurilateral the ‘way out’ for WTO on agriculture?

    pwg
    1 Oct 2014 | 2:42 pm
    Q: under what circumstances would a critical-mass (CM) plurilateral agreement on agriculture be a way “out of the mess” in the WTO agriculture negotiations? A: any CM plurilateral works as a “way out” of the WTO stalemate where it offers a degree of benefits to the members of the plurilateral agreement such that they were […]
  • Evaluation of a “Critical Mass” agreement on agriculture

    pwg
    1 Oct 2014 | 4:55 am
    The stalemate in Geneva on the December 2013 Bali Agreement concerning both Trade Faciliation and agriculture subsidies has revived some interest in the potential for a plurilateral agreement on Agriculture among WTO members. I attach to this brief post a pre-print of the summary that Andy Stoler and I wrote for the journal Global Governance […]
  • Editing Scrivener ‘Sync’ files

    pwg
    28 May 2014 | 4:57 am
    Do you use Scrivener? If so, and you’d like to edit your Scrivener files on another platform such as your iPad, I may have something that will help. I’ve made some ‘bundles’ and themes for the TextMate editor and the Textastic editor on the iPad that display inline annotations, comments and block-quotes in the text. […]
  • The longevity of plain TeX

    pwg
    29 Apr 2014 | 2:52 pm
    Microsoft Word was first released for MS DOS in October, 1983. Some five months earlier, Donald Knuth, a professor of computing at Stanford University, published “The TeX Book.” This was a jokey manual for, and a deft demonstration of, his TeX publishing program whose stable version first appeared in 1982. Each of these contemporary works […]
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    Political Calculations

  • How U.S. Turkeys Predict Global Market Crashes

    25 Nov 2014 | 11:55 pm
    For many Americans, part of what makes the Thanksgiving holidays such an ordeal from year to year is simply finding something new and interesting to talk about with family members around the dining table. We've decided to make that a lot easier to do this year, because we've uncovered a pretty uncanny, yet spurious correlation between the average live weight of farm-raised turkeys in the United States and the value of the MSCI World Stock Market Index since 1970! As you can see in our carefully calibrated chart above, whenever the value of the MSCI World index has exceeded the equivalent live…
  • 2014: But the Population of Turkeys Shrinks

    25 Nov 2014 | 12:02 am
    In 2014, the early projections indicated that the population of turkeys produced in the United States continued to shrink, with an estimated 235 million turkeys. That's down about 2% from the 240 million that were produced in 2013. That's also the lowest that the population of turkeys produced in the U.S. has been since 1986. Previously on Political Calculations2014: The Turkeys Continue to Get Bigger ReferencesU.S. Department of Agriculture. Turkeys Raised. [PDF Document]. 30 September 2014. National Turkey Federation. Sourcebook. [PDF Document]. October 2013.
  • 2014: The Turkeys Continue to Get Bigger

    24 Nov 2014 | 12:14 am
    In 2014, the average live weight of the typical turkey that will be consumed during the Thanksgiving holiday is 30.2 pounds. Compared to the 1970's, when the live weight of turkeys produced in the United States had stagnated at 18.6 pounds per bird, that makes 2014's turkey about 61% heavier. Or about 88% heavier than the typical "heritage" turkey that might be found in the wild! ReferencesThe Poultry Site. USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook - November 2014. [PDF Document]. 17 November 2014. U.S. Department of Agriculture. Turkeys Raised. [PDF Document]. 30 September 2014. National…
  • A Change in Expections for the Future for Stock Prices

    21 Nov 2014 | 3:13 pm
    Friday, 21 November 2014 saw a major change in the expectations for future dividends per share in the stock market for the current quarter (2014-Q4), as measured by the Chicago Board of Exchange's dividend futures contracts, as not much changed for all of the other more distant future quarters for which we have data. Our first chart below shows the amount of quarterly dividends per share that are now expected to be paid out for the S&P 500 before the expiration of each dividend futures contract through the third quarter of 2015, which should be compared to our previous snapshot of these same…
  • How to Fold a World Champion Paper Airplane

    20 Nov 2014 | 12:49 am
    Needless to say, the secret to superior paper aerodynamics requires precise fabrication! (HT: Kottke) The paper folding tool shown in the video is surprisingly affordable, as is the bag clip!
 
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    Calafia Beach Pundit

  • Corporate profits juggernaut continues

    26 Nov 2014 | 10:49 am
    In my view, one of the most enduring and extraordinary features of the current business cycle expansion has been the strength of corporate profits. According to the GDP stats released yesterday, third quarter after-tax corporate profits hit a new nominal high of $1.87 trillion, and a new high relative to GDP of 10.3%. So it's no wonder that equities are hitting new highs. Indeed, despite profits hitting all-time record highs, PE ratios today are only slightly above average. Stocks by this measure still look quite attractive.From 1958 through 2004, after-tax corporate profits averaged about…
  • A devastating critique of Piketty

    24 Nov 2014 | 8:43 am
    Last April I wrote a post about the problems with Piketty's book, Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Over the weekend I read Deirdre McCloskey's 55-page tour de force review of the book. It's far more than just a critique or a review of the book, it's an education in economics and a dazzling collection of references and observations on politics, society, and economic history. It's densely written, however, so it will require several hours of effort, but I think you'll find it worthwhile.In one passage, McCloskey the professor gives Piketty a failing grade in basic economics:…
  • Why the global gloom?

    21 Nov 2014 | 2:57 pm
    One popular meme these days is "the global economy is slowing down." China's economy has slowed from double digit growth rates to 7%, Japan has suffered two quarters of negative GDP growth, and the Eurozone economy has grown by less than 1% in the past year. The U.S. economy has barely managed to exceed 2% annual growth for the past five years, and people worry about the future since the Fed seems almost certain to begin raising interest rates within the next 3-6 months. Industrial commodity prices are down almost 10% in the past six months, and oil prices have plunged almost 30% since last…
  • How well do TIPS predict inflation?

    20 Nov 2014 | 3:03 pm
    Yesterday's post focused on the market's current inflation expectations for the next 5 and 10 years, as embedded in the pricing of TIPS and Treasuries. It concluded that inflation expectations are not unreasonable, and they are in line with past inflation and what is reasonable to expect going forward. This post focuses on how well the bond market's inflation-forecasting skills have proven to be.Conclusion: the bond market has more often than not tended to underestimate future inflation. For the first 12 years of the existence of TIPS, 5-yr breakeven inflation rates were lower than…
  • Inflation expectations are just fine

    19 Nov 2014 | 4:21 pm
    The minutes of the October 2014 FOMC meeting released today showed that policy makers "should remain attentive to evidence of a possible downward shift in longer-term inflation expectations." Members also worried that "if such an outcome [a downward shift of inflation expectations] occurred, it would be even more worrisome if growth faltered."The charts that follow illustrate the market's inflation expectations as implied by the pricing of TIPS and Treasury notes and bonds. They all show that although inflation expectations have declined somewhat of late, they are not unusually low. It's…
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    Donald Marron

  • Spin Alert: DOE Loans Are Losing Money, Not Making Profits

    Donald
    17 Nov 2014 | 8:32 am
    The Department of Energy snookered the media last week with a report that seems to show that its clean energy lending programs are profitable. “Remember Solyndra? Those loans are making money,” went a typical headline. Unfortunately, that’s not true. Taxpayers are losing money on DOE lending. Less than originally expected, and less than you would expect given media coverage of Solyndra, Fisker, and a few other failed loans. But smaller losses are still losses, not profits. To understand DOE’s spin, consider a simple example. Suppose your spouse borrows $10,000 from a bank at 5 percent…
  • A “Normal” Budget Isn’t Really Normal

    Donald
    20 Oct 2014 | 7:15 am
    Treasury closed the financial books on fiscal 2014 last week. As my colleague Howard Gleckman noted, the top line figures all came in close to their 40-year averages. The $483 billion deficit was about 2.8 percent of gross domestic product, for example, slightly below the 3.2 percent average of the past four decades. Tax revenues clocked in at 17.5 percent of GDP, a smidgen above their 17.3 percent 40-year average. And spending was 20.3 percent, a bit below its 20.5 percent average. Taxes, spending, and deficits thus appear to be back to “normal.” If anything, fiscal policy in 2014 was…
  • The $300 Billion Question: How Should Congress Budget for Federal Lending Programs?

    Donald
    29 Sep 2014 | 9:48 am
    Lending programs create special challenges for federal budgeting. So special, in fact, that the Congressional Budget Office estimates their budget effects two different ways. According to official budget rules, taxpayers will earn more than $200 billion over the next decade from new student loans, mortgage guarantees, and the Export-Import Bank. According to an alternative that CBO favors, taxpayers will lose more than $100 billion. Those competing estimates pose a $300 billion question: Which budgeting approach is best? As I document in a new report and policy brief, the answer is neither…
  • Four Myths about Entrepreneurship

    Donald
    17 Sep 2014 | 1:40 pm
    Dane Stangler at the Kauffman Foundation debunks four myths about entrepreneurship: Spoiler: 20-somethings make headlines, but founders in their 30s and 40s are more important. (Disclosure: The Kauffman Foundation funds some of my research at the Urban Institute.)
  • Does the Export-Import Bank Make or Lose Money?

    Donald
    10 Sep 2014 | 9:00 am
    Suppose your aunt decides to start a business making pizza ovens. She will design and build the ovens, and her daughter will manage operations. A bank is ready to lend her $100,000 to get started, but it wants someone to co-sign and be on the hook if she misses any payments. She offers to pay you $6,000 to do so. A business-savvy friend tells you that missed payments on such a loan average $2,000, usually less, occasionally much more. He also reports that $7,000 is the going rate for co-signing. Those insights spark lively family debate. Your aunt believes her proposal is a no-brainer. She…
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    Supply and Demand (in that order)

  • Real PCE per person

    26 Nov 2014 | 12:24 pm
    Real PCE per person was less in October than in August.  Year-over-year, it has grown 1.4 percent.Real GDP per capita has grown 1.7 percent year-over-year.
  • Reasons to continue the Elmendorf era

    23 Nov 2014 | 10:15 am
    Very briefly,We are fortunate to have their shoulders to stand on.  I find vast amounts of Elmendorf-era CBO research results to be interesting and rock-solid reliable.  The plain fact is that my books and my University of Chicago lectures highlight such CBO material.  I would be handicapped without it.Elmendorf-era CBO updates as research progresses, without being gullible.  Is there any other DC institution in that category?Later when I have more time I will elaborate and document these points, and explain why the detractors are confusing the forest with the trees.
  • Professor Krugman continues to misinform readers about Romneycare

    18 Nov 2014 | 5:32 pm
    "Obamacare is, in all important respects, identical to Romneycare." Get the economics of Obamacare and Romneycare from Side Effects: The Economic Consequences of the Health Reform.  Especially Chapter 10, entitled "Romneycare times Eleven":Overall, the ACA erodes nationwide average work incentives about eleven times more than Romneycare did in the state of Massachusetts . Table 10.1 is a good summary of why the differences are so dramatic: the amounts involved and the fraction of the potential workforce presented with a new income or employment tax as a consequence of health reform.The…
  • CSPAN covers economic impact

    15 Nov 2014 | 9:05 am
    At the 4:58 mark, Dr. Aaron acknowledges that "there is a tradeoff." That was a big surprise to me, because Dr. Aaron was the lead signatory on the economists' letter to Congress saying that there is no tradeoff: the ACA both helps people and grows the economy.
  • Private and Public Comments on Health Cost Growth

    14 Nov 2014 | 7:43 am
    Once upon a time, it was acknowledged in academic circles that the ACA did little to cut the growth rate of health care costs. See, for example, 24:05 and following in this video:But then in this economists' letter to Congress and the American public, the same parties are claiming that the effect of the ACA on health care cost growth is so tremendous (in the direction of less cost) that it would create up to 400,000 jobs EVERY YEAR!Another (unrelated and) excessively truthful part of this video starts just before the 24:00 mark "The American public doesn't actually care that much about the…
 
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Leif and Uri need to hang out with a better class of statisticians

    Andrew
    26 Nov 2014 | 6:30 am
    Noted psychology researchers and methods skeptics Leif Nelson and Uri Simonsohn write: A recent Psych Science (.pdf) paper found that sports teams can perform worse when they have too much talent. For example, in Study 3 they found that NBA teams with a higher percentage of talented players win more games, but that teams with the highest levels of talented players win fewer games. The hypothesis is easy enough to articulate, but pause for a moment and ask yourself, “How would you test it?” So far, so good. But then they come up with this stunner: If you are like everyone we talked to over…
  • I (almost and inadvertently) followed Dan Kahan’s principles in my class today, and that was a good thing (would’ve even been more of a good thing had I realized what I was doing and done it better, but I think I will do better in the future, which has already happened by the time you read this; remember, the blog is on a nearly 2-month lag)

    Andrew
    25 Nov 2014 | 6:38 am
    As you might recall, the Elizabeth K. Dollard Professor says that to explain a concept to an unbeliever, explain it conditionally. For example, if you want to talk evolution with a religious fundamentalist, don’t try to convince him or her that evolution is true; instead preface each explanation with, “According to the theory of evolution . . .” Your student can then learn evolution in a comfortable manner, as a set of logical rules that explain certain facts about the world. There’s no need for the student to believe or accept the idea that evolution is a universal…
  • The hype cycle starts again

    Andrew
    24 Nov 2014 | 7:36 am
    Completely uncritical press coverage of a speculative analysis. But, hey, it was published in the prestigious Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PPNAS)! What could possibly go wrong? Here’s what Erik Larsen writes: In a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, People search for meaning when they approach a new decade in chronological age, Adam L. Alter and Hal E. Hershfield conclude that “adults undertake a search for existential meaning when they approach a new decade in age (e.g., at ages 29, 39, 49, etc.) or imagine entering a new…
  • On deck this week

    Andrew
    24 Nov 2014 | 6:00 am
    Mon: The hype cycle starts again Tues: I (almost and inadvertently) followed Dan Kahan’s principles in my class today, and that was a good thing (would’ve even been more of a good thing had I realized what I was doing and done it better, but I think I will do better in the future, which has already happened by the time you read this; remember, the blog is on a nearly 2-month lag) Wed: Leif and Uri need to hang out with a better class of statisticians Thurs: Quantitative literacy is tough! Or, I had no idea that, in 1958, 96% of Americans disapproved of interracial marriage! Fri: Arizona…
  • What do Rick Santorum and Andrew Cuomo have in common?

    Andrew
    23 Nov 2014 | 6:34 pm
    Besides family values, that is? Both these politicians seem to have a problem with the National Weather Service: The Senator: Santorum also accused the weather service’s National Hurricane Center of flubbing its forecasts for Hurricane Katrina’s initial landfall in Florida, despite the days of all-too-prescient warnings the agency had given that the storm would subsequently strike the Gulf Coast. The Governor: Governor Cuomo’s attempt to scapegoat the National Weather Service for an inaccurate forecast in advance is not only completely in error—the NWS did an outstanding…
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    Capital Chronicle

  • Money can't buy happiness...

    20 Nov 2014 | 1:09 pm
    ...but a little bit helps.If your browser does not display the graphic the full article is here.
  • Relative value: signal vs noise

    6 Nov 2014 | 2:27 am
    Two competing – but sometimes overlapping – approaches to relative value / pairs trading are to take either a fundamental ‘signal’ view based on changes to factors such as the accounts, the economy, the CFO’s penchant for recognizing revenue early and so on; and the ‘noise’ approach whereby the trader concentrates on the divergence in value of the instruments for reasons unrelated to changes in fundamental conditions.Bloomberg occasionally publish pairs trading ideas in the first category. Like this one for HCN/SPG. One reading suggests that it is really a macroeconomic call…
  • World Economic Outlook, 2014: forecasting made easy

    9 Oct 2014 | 5:57 am
    Three econometricians are out hunting. They spot a stag. Given this is a story about economists let us assume it is a deaf stag.The first econometrician aims, fires but misses to the left by a metre. The second econometrician takes aim, fires and also misses - but by a metre to the right. The third econometrician does not take aim or fire. Exultant, he cries out "Nailed it!"Visually this joke appears thus: Source: Page 26, World Economic Outlook, Oct 2014 (IMF)  
  • Uncertainty vs risk: S&P500 volatility since 1929

    7 Jul 2014 | 1:49 pm
    This from Goldman Sachs' Top of Mind Global Macro Research report of 25 Jun, 2014:Although the detail within the GS report is balanced this shorter and sharper piece from the FT's Underground Economist distills the debate with no great loss of message.(And that Professor Bloom paper the FT cites is here)
  • Curse of Reinhart & Rogoff strikes Piketty

    23 May 2014 | 11:28 pm
    If only Mr. Rogoff had waited a couple of weeks before reviewing Mr. Piketty's opus here the result might have been far more entertaining (as well as thought-provoking).Why? Mr. Piketty got the R&R treatment from the FT this week (right here, you may have to register to see). Some of the criticism is about data sources; some is about data adjustments; and some concerns data selection. But the underlying question is about the combination of these and their subsequent interpretation.The New York Times captures that last point when commenting on this graphic from the FT piece written by…
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    TheMoneyIllusion

  • Neo-Fisherism in a world of multiple policy tools

    ssumner
    25 Nov 2014 | 8:15 am
    Nick Rowe has another post criticizing the Neo-Fisherian claim that pegging nominal interest rates at a high level would raise inflation to a higher level.  Nick points out that in a model where interest rates are the central bank’s policy tool, the equilibrium is extremely unstable. In my view the best way to see the problem with Neo-Fisherism is to first consider the situations where it is correct, and then ask what’s wrong with the actual claims being made. In an earlier post I discussed the situation where Japan had a long-term trend rate of inflation of zero percent, and the…
  • That’s outrageous!

    ssumner
    24 Nov 2014 | 7:41 pm
    I’ve read both sides of the debate over the recent actions by Obama on illegal immigration.  And I can’t decide who’s right.  Was it a completely lawful decision by an executive exercising prosecutorial discretion, or an outrageous overreach by an executive who essentially re-wrote the law on immigration? And that’s exactly the problem.  It ought to be possible to tell whether an outrageous abuse of power has occurred.  But our system of government in America is based on a hopelessly vague document called the Constitution, which does not clearly spell out who has…
  • A time for nuance

    ssumner
    23 Nov 2014 | 11:58 am
    Macroeconomics is really complicated.  I would consider myself a supply and demand-sider, a rational expectations and efficient markets guy, and a market monetarist. So it’s not surprising that I am often misunderstood, just as more famous bloggers like Paul Krugman are often misunderstood.  When things are far out of whack, as in 2009, it’s much easier to be understood.  You simply need to pound the “monetary stimulus” theme with a sledgehammer.  No nuance required.  As the economy gets closer and closer to the natural rate of unemployment (and we are only about…
  • Were market monetarists wrong about Japan?

    ssumner
    19 Nov 2014 | 11:55 am
    If there has been any blogger more accurate than me in their claims about Japan in recent years, please send me all his/her relevant posts, so I can can give him/her some praise. Just to review: 1.  I predicted the BOJ would be able to depreciate the yen, if it choose to do so.  I’ve been proved right again and again.  Paul Krugman had doubts. 2.  I predicted monetary stimulus would boost inflation, but that they’d fail to hit their 2% target (excluding taxes).  I was right.  Krugman’s been all over the map, hostile to fiscal stimulus in the late 1990s, then too…
  • At the other extreme . . .

    ssumner
    18 Nov 2014 | 7:00 am
    A quick follow up to my previous post.  Australia has seen 3% RGDP growth over the past 12 months, and 2.7% the year before, and 3.6% the year before.  Great news eh?  Here’s Australia’s unemployment rate over the past 12 months: That’s what happens when you have a high trend RGDP growth rate.  
 
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    Jesse's Café Américain

  • Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Now Thank We All Our God

    26 Nov 2014 | 1:28 pm
    "A proud man is seldom a grateful man, for he never thinks he gets as much as he deserves." Henry Ward Beecher   The joyfulness of simplicity is a folly to the world, but the charism of a loving God to His people.   Gold and silver were both flat in lackluster trade today, as the US markets were simply going through the motions in holiday trade and ahead of a few
  • SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Miles Gloriosus

    26 Nov 2014 | 1:18 pm
    Stocks were drifting today in very light holiday trade, further dampened by foul weather in the NYC metro area. The economic news this morning was quite poor, and lending some credence to the somewhat artificial nature of the GDP revision higher from earlier this week. US markets will be effectively closed for the rest of the week, in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday. Have a pleasant
  • Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Refreshing Resilience

    25 Nov 2014 | 1:11 pm
    Gold and silver held their prices well today with silver actually gaining some ground. Not bad for the day after a Comex option expiration. This Friday the December contract becomes active on first notice, so we might see some changes in open interest. Not much to report in the delivery category, but the Comex warehouse show the continued
  • SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Big Wheel Keep On Turning

    25 Nov 2014 | 1:07 pm
    The GDP estimate came in on the high side revision today showing what a marvelous recovery we are enjoying. Too bad not much else is showing growth. Maybe this is one of those recoveries that is localized to the well-to-do. The market is drifting higher on low volumes, and do not expect tomorrow to be much different 'unless something happens. Have a pleasant evening.      
  • Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Quiet Options Expiration on the Comex

    24 Nov 2014 | 1:15 pm
    Today was the last option expiration for 2014 Comex precious metal options. Gold and silver were under slight pressure most of the day, but closed largely unchanged. Gold was down about five dollars while silver was up a penny. Let's see how the trade winds down this week. A nor'easter is expected to work its way up the east coast of the US this week. There is some uncertainly but we may
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    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • Osborne's idiotic idea

    chris
    26 Nov 2014 | 6:11 am
    The FT reports that George Osborne wants to make unicorn farming compulsory: The new fiscal mandate is expected to enshrine in law one area of common ground between the Tories and Lib Dems: that the cyclically adjusted current deficit should be eliminated by 2017-18. This is imbecilic. One problem is that the cyclically adjusted current deficit cannot be observed precisely. To calculate it, we must know how far away output is from its trend or potential level. But we cannot know this. As Paul Ormerod says, the idea of an output gap is just mumbo-jumbo. Comapnies don't know how much extra…
  • Advice for youth

    chris
    25 Nov 2014 | 6:39 am
    "The lower strata of the middle class" says Rick "sink gradually into the proletariat." Actually, that's not Rick. It's some 19th century beardy guy. But Rick says much the same when he says that "being middle-class just ain’t what it used to be." He's right. As I've said myself, we are seeing the degradation of a lot of hitherto middle class jobs. This poses the question: what sort of career advice should we give young people? If getting a degree and a "posh job" is no guarantee of decent money or satisfying work, the standard advice…
  • Wanted: class consciousness

    chris
    23 Nov 2014 | 4:29 am
    This post by Richard reminds me that we need more class-consciousness. Rightists often argue that class war can be divisive and mean-spirited. But as Richard points out, the opposite is (also?) true. The reduced salience of class divisions has led not to a healthy community spirit but to its opposite: ethnic divisions which pit natives against immigrants; and a competitive individualism which celebrates fame and which blames "losers" for their poverty. This is especially egregious because it is founded upon factual and cognitive error. Factual error, because people over-estimate the…
  • Why workers matter

    chris
    21 Nov 2014 | 5:20 am
    So far this month, the FTSE 100 has risen 2.7%. There's a link between this fact and Emily Thornberry's resignation for that tweet. The Footsie's gain is consistent with one of the strongest tendencies in finance - for Halloween to be a buy signal. This has an important and under-appreciated implication. It implies that, underneath their smart suits and brass name-plates, professional investors are in fact just like our pagan ancestors. They get gloomy around Samhain thus pushing share prices too low, and cheerful around May Day, which sends prices too high: the counterpart of…
  • The turn away from politics

    chris
    20 Nov 2014 | 6:15 am
    Julie Bindel reminds me of one of my pet theories - that nobody is much interested in politics. By nobody I don't just mean ordinary Joes and Joannas but also people who think of themselves as political, and even professional politicians. Let's start by defining politics. Oakeshott called it (pdf)  "the activity of attending to the general arrangements of a set of people whom chance or choice have brought together." Lasswell defined (pdf) it as "who gets what, when and how". Either definition will do for my purposes. Ms Bindel writes of (some?) feminists:…
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    David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

  • Risks aplenty - but the world isn't about to go pop

    David Smith
    23 Nov 2014 | 1:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The Cassandras are out in force, from the prime minister down, predicting doom and gloom for the world economy and by extension a knock-on effect for...
  • The Bank conjures up a sweet spot for Osborne

    David Smith
    16 Nov 2014 | 1:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The Bank of England’s latest quarterly inflation report has attracted a lot of comment, mainly because it confirmed the Bank’s “lower for longer” view on interest...
  • Bank trims growth and inflation forecasts as wages pick up

    David Smith
    12 Nov 2014 | 3:45 am
    The Bank of England has taken a slightly more downbeat view of growth and a very downbeat growth of inflation over the next few months, with Mark Carney, the governor, warning that consumer price inflation could drop below 1%. If...
  • In many ways, business in Britain has never had it so good

    David Smith
    9 Nov 2014 | 1:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Is Britain a good place to do business? It is, in the end, the most fundamental question for the economy. If not, then we are condemned...
  • IEA's shadow MPC votes 5-4 for quarter-point rate hike

    David Smith
    2 Nov 2014 | 1:00 am
    At its meeting of Tuesday 14th October, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) recommended that Bank Rate should be raised by ¼% on Thursday 6th November. Those urging a rate increase took the view that...
 
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    Project Syndicate RSS-Feed

  • Abe’s Safe Bet

    Yuriko Koike
    26 Nov 2014 | 9:30 am
    Observers worldwide are scratching their heads at Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s decision to risk his extensive reform agenda by calling a snap general election two years early. But, while Abe may be known for his boldness, he is no reckless gambler; he knows that he needs a strong mandate to achieve his reform goals.
  • The Geopolitical Impact of Cheap Oil

    Martin Feldstein
    26 Nov 2014 | 7:30 am
    If the price of oil, which has fallen more than 25% in the past five months, remains at its current level, it will have important implications for many countries around the world, some good and some bad. If it falls further, as seems likely, the geopolitical consequences could be dramatic.
  • Social Choice and Social Welfare

    Amartya Sen
    26 Nov 2014 | 6:50 am
    Human beings have always lived in groups, and their individual lives have invariably depended on group decisions. But, given the daunting challenges of group choice, owing to the divergent interests and concerns of the group’s members, how should collective decision-making be carried out?
  • Getting to Yes with Putin

    Dominique Moisi
    26 Nov 2014 | 6:00 am
    Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the European Union's divisions and weaknesses have been as encouraging for Russia President Vladimir Putin as America's hesitant approach to Syria was. Only a firm, clear, and united policy toward Russia can bring about a viable compromise.
  • The Two Colombias

    Andrés Velasco
    26 Nov 2014 | 5:20 am
    There are two Colombias: one of rapid economic growth and innovative social policies, and another of guerrilla warfare, poverty, and human-rights violations. The good news is that the modern Colombia, characterized by peace and progress, is winning.
 
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    OilPrice.com Daily News Update

  • Google Gives Up On Renewables

    26 Nov 2014 | 1:40 pm
    This is a post-mortem on a project initiated by Google – a master of innovation if ever there was one and a company with impeccable green credentials (see photo below) – the goal of which was to scope out an innovative renewable energy system that could compete economically with coal and other fossil fuels and which could be deployed quickly enough to stave off the worst impacts of climate change. Google headquarters, complete with 1.6MW of PV panels Work on the project, which Google named RE<C (Renewable Energy cheaper than Coal)…Read more...
  • Waste To Energy Could Be Long-Term Renewable Solution

    26 Nov 2014 | 12:53 pm
    On a recent business trip to Edmonton, in northern Canada, I was surprised to find, amid the bales of recycled materials and heavy equipment pushing around mountains of trash, a large facility that looked a lot like an oil refinery. The building was a couple of storeys high and consisted of a network of interlocking pipes, surrounded by a cage of steel framing and a number of platforms. When I asked about it, a landfill worker told me the facility is a waste to biofuels plant that essentially converts garbage into biofuels. Opened in June, the…Read more...
  • Bakken Sweet Spots Are Petering Out

    26 Nov 2014 | 12:45 pm
    The Bakken, as well as other shale oil areas, is not one homogeneous area where equal amounts of oil can be found. David Hughes in DRILLING DEEPER puts it this way, though here he is talking about gas wells, the same applies to oil wells: All shale gas plays invariably have “core” areas or “sweet spots”, where individual well production is highest and hence the economics are best. Sweet spots are targeted and drilled off early in a play’s lifecycle, leaving lesser quality rock to be drilled as the play matures (requiring…Read more...
  • Russia Expects Oil Price To Rise, But Not Enough To Balance Moscow’s Budget

    26 Nov 2014 | 12:27 pm
    Russia can’t live with oil prices below $79 per barrel, but Finance Minister Anton Siluanov says he doesn’t expect them to drop much lower, and they may even rise a bit in the medium and long term. Still, he says, that won’t be enough to stabilize Russia’s strained budget. Two-thirds of Moscow’s annual budget comes from taxes on Russia’s oil and natural gas companies. The budget laid out for 2015 requires an oil price of $100 per barrel. Now Siluanov has come to agree with many energy analysts that that the price…Read more...
  • Pressure Mounts On Quebec To Ban Uranium Mining

    26 Nov 2014 | 12:13 pm
    Demonstrators outside hearings for the Matoush uranium project. (Image from archives) A group of young members of the James Bay Cree Nation began an 800-kilometre trek from Mistissini to Montreal Sunday to demand a ban on uranium development in northern Quebec. They plan to arrive in Montreal on Dec. 15, the final day of hearings on uranium development by Quebec’s environmental watchdog, the Bureau d’audiences publiques sur l’environnement (BAPE). The march underlines the Crees’ opposition to uranium exploration and mining,…Read more...
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    zentrader.ca

  • Astrology Update: November 23, 2014

    karen starich
    24 Nov 2014 | 9:25 pm
    By Astrology Traders The Markets There are several key indicators occurring, suggesting a Bearish market trend, while at the same time the markets are moving counter intuitive to those indicators.  This week we are going to outline the indicators and put our perspective into what this means for the markets going forward.  below is Jeff’s technical indicator, Chris’s options conundrum, and the wild card aspect in the astrology that suggests–volatility. Technical Long Term Bear market, Short Term and Mid Term Bullish Uncommonly inconclusive Long Call/Married Put…
  • Insure Stock Portfolio For $1 Per Day

    chris
    23 Nov 2014 | 5:00 am
    By Chris Ebert It’s difficult to predict the future; some might say it’s impossible. The stock market, as with any process that involves predicting the future, is, as one might expect, very unpredictable. But unlike natural processes that are difficult to predict, for example predicting where and when a storm might strike, the stock market’s unpredictability is intentional. Whereas a storm may be unpredictable, the inability to forecast its path with 100% accuracy is a result only of a lack of data; the more data – the more accurate the prediction. That’s because, presumably, nobody…
  • The US Dollar Remains Stubbornly Bullish

    Jeff Pierce
    21 Nov 2014 | 9:32 am
    By Poly This is an excerpt from this week’s premium update from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly. Now offering monthly & quarterly subscriptions with 30 day refund. Promo code ZEN saves 10%. The Dollar stubbornly refuses to fall, even though it too (like crude/bonds) is very deep into its Daily and Investor Cycle timing. Technically it is weakening, as seen within the indicators on the chart below. I believe this is a sign that the dollar has…
  • S&P 500 Stretched Like A Spring

    chris
    20 Nov 2014 | 10:57 am
    By Chris Ebert Stock prices tend to act like a spring. The further they are stretched to their limits, the further they tend to snap back in the opposite direction. The opposite is also true. When stock prices are not stretched very far, they don’t recoil nearly s far in the opposite direction when the stretching force is removed. This is particularly true of large baskets of stock – stock indexes such as the Dow, Nasdaq or S&P 500 – since the forces that can move an index are limited. Earnings or other news can move an individual stock, but for a large index the news tends to…
  • All-Time Highs Possible In Bear Markets

    chris
    16 Nov 2014 | 5:00 am
    By Chris Ebert The stock market is hot. There’s no denying it. Yet, it just doesn’t feel the same as it did a few months ago, or for most of the past several years for that matter. It’s like there is something missing. Perhaps there truly is something missing – something big. It’s almost impossible to know for certain. It is possible to speculate as to the exact nature of what it is that is currently missing (big hands, little hands, hedge funds, HFTs, corporate fundamentals, QE, etc.) but the truth may never be known. The effects, on the other hand, are known. Additionally, given…
 
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    MartinKronicle - Michael Martin

  • The Most Important Thing About Trading…

    Michael Martin
    13 Nov 2014 | 12:19 pm
    Similar Posts: One Thing I Learned While Not Trading for Victor Niederhoffer Reader Question on Trading Systems v. Discretion (Prop Trading) Prop Trading Gold: 4 Things To Consider Before Trading Inside Prop Trading & Prop Trading Firms Prop Trading Firms
  • Managing the Disney Call option Position – Part 2

    Michael Martin
    25 Sep 2014 | 12:36 am
    This lesson discusses a few of the choices you could make if you are still Long the DIS JAN15 70 Calls. If you missed that video, you can see it below or click here to see the original post from October 2013. Similar Posts: How Gold Is Being Traded Now One Way To Make More $$$ in 2010: Follow-Up Better The Touch, The Feel of Trading Cotton Spreads How To Short Sell Gold $GC_F UK Election Aftermath GBP FXB
  • The Most Powerful Trader in the World

    Michael Martin
    30 Jan 2014 | 11:28 am
    Once you’ve mastered putting in protective stops, you’ll feel empowered. Why? Because at that point you are emotionally balanced and are WILLING to transfer the risk to someone else and exit with a small loss. You have emotional and financial understanding that trading is a process and that any one trade is meaningless over 1,000s of trades. At that point you have personal power in that trading is just one part of your day and your life is abundant. And you don’t need to tell anyone about your trading. You’re in love with your process – be it mechanical or…
  • Anatomy of a Trader’s Mindset

    Michael Martin
    22 Jan 2014 | 8:54 am
    I had a great chat with one of my students last week and something hit me from our conversation. Like me (and probably you) he’s an avid reader. It was such a great conversation, I came away with something… We were talking about the most recent assignment that he was working on and he got WAAAAY off the subject by telling me all the fundamentals of the company etc “In 2002, they listed on the FTSE and their main product was…” and I was like “Whoa, what the heck does 2002 have to do with today and trading in the ever-evolving moment of NOW in January…
  • Keep Calm and Enter Your Stops

    Michael Martin
    14 Jan 2014 | 1:14 am
    The Sugar trade I mentioned a few weeks ago that almost tripled one of my accounts had a lot of things going on inside it. But making the money was a symptom of several factors, some of which might surprise you. Of course, it goes without saying that I was powerless over the move in Sugar itself, so the best thing I could have done is what I did do: add some risk to my account and enter a protective stop to knock me out if I was wrong. I should also add that I had no clue the trade would develop even remotely the way it did when it started out. Technology-wise, I used EOD data from my broker…
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    NEW ECONOMY

  • New Film Shows How Florida Farmworkers Won Fairer Pay From America's Biggest Food Companies

    Nur Lalji
    21 Nov 2014 | 4:45 pm
    Lucas Benitez of the Coalition of Immokalee Workers. Photo by Jeffery Salter. The small city of Immokalee, Florida, provides produce to millions of people. It’s one of the country’s agricultural hubs, but with an average per capita income of $9,518, the majority of residents—many of whom are farmworkers—live well below the national poverty level. “The wealth doesn’t stay here with us.” That’s Lucas Benitez, founder of the Coalition of Immokalee Workers and a former farmworker, in the new film Food Chains.  The documentary, by director Sanjay Rawal and executive producers Eva…
  • How the U.S. Government Could End the Student Debt Crisis Today

    Raúl Carrillo
    12 Nov 2014 | 1:25 pm
    Photo by Shutterstock. Last month, Lower Saxony became the final state in Germany to abolish tuition for all students at public universities. Meanwhile, in the United States, student loan debt has passed the $1 trillion mark. The burden is now becoming increasingly heavy for middle-class and wealthy students, but especially for those from lower-income backgrounds. This injustice has spurred many organizations, like the Occupy Wall Street offshoot Strike Debt, to do what they can to pay off student debt on their own. The student-debt status quo taxes borrowers while doing less and less to…
  • Bikes! Co-Ops! Voyages of Self-Discovery! This Project Brings Together Everything You Love

    Mary Hansen
    6 Nov 2014 | 2:37 pm
    This article originally appeared at the Field Guide to a Regenerative Economy. In the summers of 2012 and 2013 a group of college students and recent grads bicycled across America. They visited cooperatives, honed their own cooperative skills, re-imagined the country they were about to inherit, and, along the way, discovered themselves. Here is their story. In the 2012 U.N.-declared “International Year of Cooperatives,” a collective of college students created a project called Co-Cycle. They were 12 friends who wanted to experience the nation that they were to inherit. They wanted to…
  • “We Couldn’t Possibly Be Poor”: How a Doctor Fell Into Poverty

    Robin Dickinson
    3 Nov 2014 | 12:55 pm
    Photo by Michael Newman / Flickr The ER doctor looked grave as he pulled his stool close to the hospital bed where I was sitting with my husband and two small children. “I’m really sorry to have to tell you this. There’s no easy way.” As a family physician, I recognized those words: We’re trained to warn someone before we tell them bad news. Then I realized he was saying I’d had two strokes. I can’t talk about federal nutrition assistance, or my first experience using it, without smiling. In that one brief moment, my life completely changed. I had no cognitive problems and was…
  • Before the Zombie Apocalypse—These 4 Trade Deals Were Ravaging the World!

    James Trimarco
    29 Oct 2014 | 11:39 am
    This time of year, the fabric that separates our world from prowling ghouls is at its thinnest. But what really keeps us at YES! Magazine up at night are the international trade agreements constantly being negotiated by the United States and its partners—each one more terrifying than the last. These deals have a way of favoring corporations over people. How can something as pleasant-sounding as “free trade” be more threatening than a zombie apocalypse? The devil’s in the details, and the fine print on some of these agreements is enough to curdle a bucket of blood. Whether it’s…
 
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    Central Bank News

  • Albania cuts rate another 25 bps to 2.25%

    centralbanknews.info
    26 Nov 2014 | 6:42 am
        Albania's central bank cut its policy rate by another 25 basis points to 2.25 percent following a review of the outlook and economic and monetary developments, the bank said in a brief statement.    The Bank of Albania has now cut its rate by 75 basis points this year.    Last month the central bank held its rate steady but said it would ease further if the economy deteriorated more than forecast.    On Tuesday the International Monetary Fund said Albania's economy was expected to growth 2 percent this year with output below potential and inflation…
  • Central Bank News Link List - Nov 26, 2014 - ECB may consider sovereign QE next quarter, Constancio says

    centralbanknews.info
    26 Nov 2014 | 6:24 am
    Here's today's Central Bank News' link list click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.ECB may consider sovereign QE next quarter, Constancio says (Bloomberg)China won’t consider more rate cuts or easing until Q4 data-official (Reuters)BOJ’s Kuroda resolute in fight against deflation, says ready to ease more(Reuters)Russia weighs monetary easing next year (Bloomberg)Economists: Fed…
  • Hungary holds rate, loose conditions for extended period

    centralbanknews.info
    25 Nov 2014 | 4:27 pm
        Hungary's central bank left its base rate steady at 2.10 percent, as expected, and confirmed its guidance that it expects to maintain the current loose monetary conditions "for an extended period."    The National Bank of Hungary (MNB), which ended a two-year easing cycle in July after cutting its rate by 490 basis points, also repeated that disinflationary pressures from the demand side were gradually weakening as economic activity gathers pace so inflation is likely to reach levels around 3 percent - a level that is consistent with price stability - in the second…
  • Nigeria ups rate 100 bps, CRR 500 bps, lowers FX target

    centralbanknews.info
    25 Nov 2014 | 4:15 pm
        Nigeria's central bank raised its benchmark Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 100 basis points to 13.0 percent, raised the reserve requirement on private sector deposits by 500 basis points to 20.0 percent, and lowered its target for the naira's exchange rate in what it described as a "bold policy" move to maintain exchange rate stability, stem the decline in foreign exchange reserves and anchor inflation expectations.   It was the first change in rates by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) since October 2011 and comes against the backdrop of a 10 percent drop in official…
  • Angola holds rate but raises RRR by 250 bps

    centralbanknews.info
    24 Nov 2014 | 9:57 am
       Angola's central bank maintained its Basis Interest Rate (BNA) at 9.0 percent but continued to tighten its policy stance by raising the required reserve ratio for local currency deposits by 250 basis points to 15.0 percent.    The National Bank of Angola (BNA), which has cut its rate by a net 25 basis points this year, noted that consumer price inflation rose by 0.29 percentage points to 7.48 percent in October, with prices of food and nonalcoholic beverages rising by 0.22 percentage points, the largest contributor.    Credit to Angola's economy rose by an…
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    Business Insider

  • Blast hits British embassy vehicle in Kabul: embassy

    26 Nov 2014 | 10:41 pm
    Kabul (AFP) - A British embassy vehicle was hit by a blast in Kabul on Thursday, causing some injuries, an embassy spokesman told AFP."A British embassy vehicle was attacked. There are some injuries. We are working with Afghan authorities," the spokesman said.Afghan deputy interior minister Ayub Salangi said it was suicide motorbike bomb.Join the conversation about this story »
  • Tibetan tapestry fetches record $45 million in Hong Kong

    26 Nov 2014 | 10:39 pm
    Hong Kong (AFP) - An ancient Tibetan silk tapestry has set a world record for Chinese art after it was sold to a Shanghai tycoon for $45 million (HK$348 million) at auction in Hong Kong, according to Christie's.The 600-year-old artwork, called a thangka and embroidered in vivid hues of red and gold, was bought by Liu Yiqian on Wednesday and will be displayed at his new museum in Shanghai, the auction house said."I am proud to bring back to China this significant and historic 15th century thangka which will be preserved in the Long museum for years to come," he was quoted as saying in a…
  • Uber's Android App May Be Collecting An Alarming Amount Of Your Personal Data

    Sam Colt
    26 Nov 2014 | 10:15 pm
    Uber's Android app may be sending your private data back to the company, reports Cult of Mac's Buster Hein. The data transfer was reportedly discovered by Joe Giron, who runs a cybersecurity firm. Cult of Mac says: "Digging into the app’s code, GironSec discovered the Uber app “calls home” and sends private data back to Uber. This isn’t typical app data, though. Uber is sending back users’ entire SMSLog even though the app never requests permission. It also sends call history, Wi-Fi connections used, GPS locations and every type of device ID possible. The app…
  • Thai elections may be delayed until 2016: junta

    26 Nov 2014 | 9:31 pm
    Bangkok (AFP) - Thailand's junta said Thursday elections in the military-ruled kingdom would likely be delayed until 2016, days after military officials ruled out lifting martial law any time soon.The admission will cause consternation among the kingdom's international allies who had been pushing for a swift return to democracy following the military's takeover in May.Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha had previously said his government hoped to hold fresh polls around October 2015, once the drafting of a new constitution was completed.But General Prawit Wongsuwon, the deputy prime minister and…
  • British trio on brink of Europa League knockout phase

    Greg Fraser
    26 Nov 2014 | 9:28 pm
    Paris (AFP) - Everton, Tottenham and Celtic can wrap up their places in the Europa League knockout stage in Thursday's penultimate batch of group matches.Red Bull Salzburg, Dinamo Moscow, Fiorentina and Legia Warsaw are already guaranteed their place in the last-32.That leaves 20 places still up for grabs from the group phase with eight third-place finishers from the Champions League also set to parachute into the draw. Roberto Martinez's Everton side are enjoying a fine return to European football since their glory days of 1985 when they won the now defunct Cup Winners' Cup, the same year…
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    Business + Economy – Articles – The Conversation

  • Indonesia's fuel subsidy cut, a bitter pill that had to be swallowed

    Agustinus Prasetyantoko, Dean of Faculty of Business Administration and Communication Science at Atma Jaya Catholic University of Indonesia
    26 Nov 2014 | 8:57 pm
    Indonesia raised its subsidised fuel prices by more than 30% as an effort to escape the country's current account deficit. EPA/HOTLI SIMANJUNTAKIndonesia’s move to cut fuel subsidies, raising the prices of petrol and diesel by more than 30% can be a game changer for Indonesia’s economy. The subsidies, which have kept fuel prices in Indonesia among the cheapest in the region, have been expensive, wasteful and ill-targeted. The cut, could save Indonesia between US$8 billion and US$10 billion in 2015. If spent wisely, Southeast Asia’s largest economy might be able to do away with its…
  • When public servants lose jobs it takes years to get back on track

    Genevieve Knight, Senior Research Fellow, National Institute of Labour Studies at Flinders University
    26 Nov 2014 | 5:42 pm
    It can take more than three years for a public servant to climb back to their same level of pay after losing their job. Alex Proimos/Flickr, CC BY-NCBy 2017, some 16,500 public servants will have lost their jobs, or have been shuffled into other positions within the public service, in the government’s ongoing drive for budget savings. The long-standing Commonwealth “efficiency dividend” also has impacts on jobs, as it works on the premise that increases in productivity make it possible to reduce funding to Commonwealth agencies without compromising outputs. But what of the impact on the…
  • The enduring myth of the industrial relations club

    Anthony Forsyth, Professor, Director of Juris Doctor Programs at RMIT University
    26 Nov 2014 | 11:32 am
    Was the Coalition too quick to take up Gerard Henderson's IR club theme? Dan Himbrechts/AAPThe Abbott government will soon ask the Productivity Commission to review the Fair Work system. In parallel with that review, we need a more sophisticated debate about our workplace relations framework. There are some legitimate questions to ask about the current system, including: whether the wage outcomes in certain sectors are excessive (e.g. offshore oil and gas production, and infrastructure construction) whether some unions have done too well at the negotiating table – winning agreement…
  • The road ahead: why infrastructure should not be used for political point scoring

    Matthew Beck, Senior Lecturer in Infrastructure Management at University of Sydney
    25 Nov 2014 | 5:21 pm
    Protesters rally against Victoria's East-West Link project Courtney Biggs/AAPInfrastructure projects are ripe for political point scoring. None more so than Private Public Partnerships (PPPs), which allow private companies to profit from key infrastructure. Yet political debate, especially during an election, overlooks why key projects actually need PPPs. As governments face shrinking revenues and increasing infrastructure needs, PPPs can be used to harness private sector finance and increase the total spending on projects. These structures enable governments to provide key infrastructure…
  • The ABC's 'me too' strategy puts it on track for redundancy

    Stephen King, Professor, Department of Economics at Monash University
    25 Nov 2014 | 4:28 pm
    The ABC's focus on digital will not help it make a case for its uniqueness. Dan Peled/AAPIs the ABC trying to make itself redundant? Because that appears to be its strategy. Here’s why. The ABC is expensive. In 2013 it was allocated more than A$1 billion of taxpayer funds. The ABC claims, however, that its real funding since 1985-86 has dropped by about one quarter. And the current federal government has cut further – A$120 million in the May budget and a further A$207 million over four years. The ABC has responded with cutbacks in “niche” areas such as women’s sport and rural…
 
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    SurvivalBlog.com

  • Notes for Wednesday – November 26, 2014

    Hugh James Latimer
    25 Nov 2014 | 10:27 pm
    November 26th is the birthday of both gun inventor Eugene Reising (born 1884, died February 21, 1967) and the late Barton Biggs (born 1932, died July 14, 2012). Biggs was a money manager known for his pro-preparedness stance. o o o JRH Enterprises is running a big Black Friday sale with all Mt. House on sale with shipping included as well as PVS14 Pinnacle Autogated Night vision devices, Thermal imaging scopes, and Perimeter alarms. Sale ends in just a few days! Don’t miss it! o o o Today, we present another entry for Round 55 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The…
  • A Strategy For Profitable Investing, by JEH, CPA

    Hugh James Latimer
    25 Nov 2014 | 10:26 pm
    I am writing this letter in response to the question posed in “Letter Re: Surviving Financial SHTF and Becoming Debt Free, by K.D”. I am a CPA who thought about investing the day I got my first job. I am not a licensed investment representative, so as a result I will not tell you what to specifically invest in. However, I want to teach you how to look at the market. The first tax season I worked, I noticed that people poured money into what was “hot” at the time, and they took a loss when the market went south. As a result, I talked with people who were successful at…
  • Letter Re: The Value of Human Relationships in a Grid-Down or Survival Event, by J.C.

    Hugh James Latimer
    25 Nov 2014 | 10:25 pm
    I have to disagree with the article “The Value of Human Relationships in a Grid-Down or Survival Event.” In this article, what J.C. is describing is nothing more than Crony Capitalism, which is what happens when those connected or who are friends or relatives of the “rulers” get favors that others in society don’t receive. It’s happening now at all levels of government, and it’s one of the main things wrong with society today. Those in government are supposed to treat everyone fairly and equally. Just because you’re friends with someone or…
  • Economics and Investing:

    Hugh James Latimer
    25 Nov 2014 | 10:25 pm
    Senate Report: Scale of Wall Street Holdings Are “Unprecedented in U.S. History”. – P.K. o o o Commerzbank to Charge Fees to Discourage Large Deposits. – G.G. o o o Weak Oil Prices a Boon to Airline Stocks 0 Email . – K.P. o o o My Target Of Dow Jones Industrial Average 31,000 May Be Conservative
  • JWR’s Recommendations of the Week:

    Hugh James Latimer
    25 Nov 2014 | 10:25 pm
    Books Adventure Medical Kits A Comprehensive Guide to Wilderness & Travel Medicineby Eric A. Weiss, M.D. Rodale’s Ultimate Encyclopedia of Organic Gardening: The Indispensable Green Resource for Every Gardener Fiction The Andromeda Strain by Michael Crichton Movies Enemy at the Gates Schindler’s List (BTW, it is too bad that Spielberg didn’t show Oskar Schindler arming his Jewish employees, which is what actually happened.)
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    Trading Heroes

  • Currency Related Markets Update – US Dollar On Fire Edition

    Hugh Kimura
    24 Nov 2014 | 1:30 am
    This week, I focus on the hot stock and US Dollar markets. There isn't too much going on in other markets, but as stocks hit record highs, I review the correlation between stocks, the US Dollar and the carry trade. The post Currency Related Markets Update – US Dollar On Fire Edition appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • How To Backtest The Forex Carry Trade Strategy

    Hugh Kimura
    20 Nov 2014 | 2:51 am
    The carry trade can be attractive because it seems like you just sit back and collect the interest. Nothing could be further from the truth. This post will show you how to backtest your carry trade strategy so you understand what you are really getting into. The post How To Backtest The Forex Carry Trade Strategy appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • Weekly Related Markets Update – Rising Dollar Edition

    Hugh Kimura
    17 Nov 2014 | 3:43 am
    This week, I take a look at Russia's influence on gold, why Bitcoin is not worth one million dollars and where oil can go from here. I would be interested to hear your thoughts also, so let me know your opinions on these markets. The post Weekly Related Markets Update – Rising Dollar Edition appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • Urban Forex CCI Divergence Breakout Strategy Testing Setup

    Hugh Kimura
    13 Nov 2014 | 7:19 pm
    This post will show you how to test a trading method that is publicly available on another Forex trading site. I do not know if it works or not, but I want to document the process of testing, examining and attempting to improve it. This is the first part of the series. The post Urban Forex CCI Divergence Breakout Strategy Testing Setup appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • Weekly Related Markets Update – Bouncing Gold Edition

    Hugh Kimura
    9 Nov 2014 | 11:07 pm
    This week's related markets update features oil near three year lows and gold doing a hard bounce. Is it a dead cat bounce or the real thing? Also see the break out on the US Dollar Index and why I think Bitcoin is in a no-man's land. The post Weekly Related Markets Update – Bouncing Gold Edition appeared first on Trading Heroes.
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    OpenMarkets

  • How Golf Helped Wounded Vets This Season on the LPGA Tour

    Evan Peterson
    26 Nov 2014 | 12:38 pm
      When the fourth playoff hole was finished Sunday at the CME Group Tour Championship in Naples, Fla., several season-ending accolades were settled: Tournament champion and Race to CME Globe winner (Lydia Ko), Vare trophy, Rolex Player of the Year and the money title winner (Stacy Lewis). Beyond the players’ awards, the Wounded Warriors Weekends program also wrapped up for the season. That meant a $300,000 donation from CME Group to the Wounded Warriors Project (WWP), a national organization that provides programs and services aimed at meeting the needs of returning injured…
  • Monday Outlook: Economic Thanksgiving

    OpenMarkets
    24 Nov 2014 | 9:03 pm
    Fewer economic events are on the calendar this week thanks to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., but it follows a week where plenty of news and ideas came out of the Global Financial Leadership Conference, including Mohamed El-Erian’s 4 circles of economic performance that lead to prosperity. See all of our GFLC coverage.   Economic Calendar Tuesday: U.S. State Street Investor Confidence 10:00 AM ET U.S. Consumer Confidence 10:00 AM ET   Wednesday: U.S. New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET U.S. Dairy Product Sales 4:00 PM ET   Thursday: Thanksgiving   Friday: U.S. Export…
  • MARKET UPDATE: WINDS IN THE SAILS OF EQUITIES

    OpenMarkets
    21 Nov 2014 | 1:38 pm
    Jack told us that this week would be all about the central banks and he appears to be correct.  To recap: in Japan we saw Abenomics take hold and a pushing out of the sales tax while  dissolving the lower house of parliament.  Fed minutes gave us some constructive feedback, telling us our economy is growing.  And today we saw a couple of surprises, such as quantitative easing seeming to become a reality in Europe and the Chinese Central Banks cutting their rates.
  • FX Volatility and Central Bank Divergence

    Blu Putnam
    21 Nov 2014 | 10:44 am
    With former French President Nicolas Sarkozy, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, and former head of the Bank of England Mervin King on the program at CME Group’s Global Financial Leadership Conference on November 17, there was considerable discussion among all the participants about divergences among central bank policies.  While these were off-the-record sessions, the divergent paths taken by the major central banks are clearly driving some new patterns in the foreign exchange markets. Our own view is that while the depth and suddenness of the 2008 financial panic caught…
  • 50 Years of Live Cattle

    Tom Clark
    20 Nov 2014 | 6:00 am
      Today’s futures markets are places where participants trade all kinds of commodity and financial derivatives, from oil and gold to foreign exchange and interest rates. But before the 1960s, futures markets were solely places to trade grain, produce or dairy products like butter and eggs (CME began as the Chicago Butter and Egg Board). One of the great innovations in commodity markets happened in 1964 when CME’s  Live Cattle contract was introduced as a way to help cattle producers manage risk the same way grain producers had been doing for 100 years. The contract opened…
 
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    eWallstreeter

  • 4 Things That are Worth Buying on Black Friday

    26 Nov 2014 | 7:18 pm
    We've created a list of gift items that will save you the most money if you buy them on Black Friday (or Black Thursday).
  • Thanksgiving Travel Nightmare: Over 700 Flights Canceled, Major Storms; Black Friday Ice; Please Drive Safely

    26 Nov 2014 | 3:39 pm
    If you are traveling tonight or tomorrow, please take extra time.If you are traveling by plane, please check your flight schedule. Hundreds of flights have been cancelled, thousands of other flights delayed.Thanksgiving Travel NightmareAccuweather reports Snowstorm Creates Thanksgiving Travel Nightmare in EastA snowstorm pummeling the East has produced lengthy flight delays and treacherous travel on roadways Wednesday. As snow rapidly exits the Northeast into Thanksgiving Day, there will still b
  • Argentine President Emerges After Yet Another Illness And She Is Not Happy With All The Rumors About Her Health

    26 Nov 2014 | 2:19 pm
    Argentina's president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, made her first public appearance on Tuesday since being hospitalized more than three weeks ago with a bacterial infection. She took the opportunity to address her critics and assure her audience that she would protect her country's interests. Produced by Devan Joseph. Video courtesy of Associated Press. Follow BI Video: On FacebookJoin the conversation about this story »
  • No Mystery that Investment Slump Hurts Workers, Lowers Productivity and Wages

    26 Nov 2014 | 12:15 pm
    In the Tuesday Wall Street Journal, Professor Alan Blinder wrote of his puzzlement at the very slow growth of productivity in the last three years. There is really no mystery. The rate of growth of investment in equipment in this economic recovery has lagged far behind that of a normal rebound. As a result, the workforce is not getting much additional capital to work with, wages are not growing strongly, and job creation is very slow. The accompanying graph shows the slow pace of equipment growt
  • 3 Reasons Americans Still Aren't Comfortable Spending Money

    26 Nov 2014 | 11:46 am
    Falling gas prices. Soaring stock market. Unemployment at a six-year-low. All signs point to a successful holiday shopping season. Despite the economic tail winds, though, retailers are finding themselves having to work to get shoppers into stores. Why? Five years into the economic recovery, most Americans still are struggling. Gas prices may be hovering at a four-year low, but Americans are paying more for food, health care and other costs. Unemployment is falling, too, but wage growth has been
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    The Last Embassy

  • Narrow Networks and the 2015 Version of ACA

    W.E. Heasley
    26 Nov 2014 | 1:53 am
    "More directly, Obamacare is eliminating access to many of the best specialists and best hospitals for middle-income Americans. To meet the law's requirements, major insurers all across the country are declining to participate in the exchanges, or only offering plans that exclude many of America's best doctors and hospitals. McKinsey reported 68% of Obamacare insurance options only cover narrow
  • ACA/Obamacare: Nancy Pelosi Regarding the Supposed Mystery Man Jonathan Gruber

    W.E. Heasley
    23 Nov 2014 | 6:41 pm
  • ACA/Obamacare: Spending Figures Released on the Medicaid Component of Obamacare

    W.E. Heasley
    21 Nov 2014 | 2:11 am
    ‘WASHINGTON (Reuters) - One part of the Affordable Care Act is going according to plan, with U.S. states receiving and spending more money on the Medicaid health insurance program, a report released by the National Association of State Budget Officers on Thursday showed.’ ‘"The large increase in federal funds to states in fiscal 2014 was almost solely due to additional Medicaid dollars,
  • ACA/Obamacare: Revisiting Interstate Commerce and Buying Health Insurance Across State Lines

    W.E. Heasley
    20 Nov 2014 | 3:29 am
    “The second open enrollment period for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act is underway, and the law is more unpopular than ever. According to Gallup, a record-high 56 percent of Americans now disapprove of the 2010 law.” “Republicans in Congress — less inclined than some deep thinkers to sneer at "the stupidity of the American people" — unanimously opposed the Affordable Care Act
  • ACA/Obamacare: To Gruber Or Not To Gruber, That is the Question…..

    W.E. Heasley
    19 Nov 2014 | 2:14 am
    “Grubergate: The lies are getting pretty thick these days. The president claims that he never misled anyone about ObamaCare and that Jonathan Gruber was just "some adviser." In fact, Gruber was a key player in the deception. When Fox News' Ed Henry asked Obama on Sunday if he'd misled the American people "in order to get the bill passed," Obama's answer was "No, I did not." Space prohibits
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    Columbia Business School: Ideas At Work RSS

  • Do Longer Hospital Stays Lead to Better Outcomes?

    11 Nov 2014 | 8:44 am
    Extending hospital stays by just one day could save lives — and taxpayers’ money.
  • Want Your Innovation Contest to Work?

    11 Nov 2014 | 8:33 am
    New research explores the ideal contest design for spurring innovation.
  • Is Your Team Too Talented?

    30 Oct 2014 | 7:40 am
    Too much talent — on the court or in the office — can drive down team performance, new research shows.
  • Want to Grow Your Retirement Savings? Then Forget About It.

    23 Oct 2014 | 1:01 pm
    New research shows that the less frequently investors check their portfolios, the better off they are.
  • Low Rates, Big Spending?

    15 Oct 2014 | 10:37 am
    Six years after the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve and other central banks are still looking for answers to whether the unconventional monetary policies adopted following the crisis — including lowered interest rates — have been effective in helping American households and the larger economy. The persistence of so many debt-burdened households, widespread unemployment, and relatively low economic growth has only increased the debate among economists and policymakers.
 
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    FTMDaily.com

  • ALERT: U.S. Dollar Nearing Major Resistance Level

    Tom Cloud
    26 Nov 2014 | 1:27 pm
    After recently hitting a four year high, the U.S. dollar index is now nearing a major resistance level between 89 and 90. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • 5 Reasons Why I Own Gold

    Jerry Robinson
    25 Nov 2014 | 12:25 pm
    On this week's show, economist Jerry Robinson provides five reasons he owns physical gold. Also, an update for stock investors. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • How to Build a Financially Sound Portfolio

    Jay Peroni
    22 Nov 2014 | 5:50 am
    Jay Peroni, CFP, shares how to build a $50,000 portfolio and gives us a look at 20 financially sound stocks. Plus, what women should know about investing. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • How to Create a Simple Website Using WordPress

    Jerry Robinson
    21 Nov 2014 | 9:27 am
    Just added to the FTM Income University! Watch this brand new 23 video series on how to begin creating your own Wordpress website. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • How to Make Money With Google Adsense (Subscriber-Only Video)

    Jerry Robinson
    21 Nov 2014 | 8:18 am
    Jerry Robinson explains how he has used Google Adsense to make money over the past decade (and how you can too). Plus, Jerry reveals his favorite new investment idea for the end of 2014! [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
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    Exchange Rates UK - Currency News

  • British Pound Climbs vs Euro and US Dollar after UK GDP as Forecast

    Colin Lawrence
    26 Nov 2014 | 8:00 am
    Our daily exchange rate news report on the British Pound (currency:GBP), Euro (currency:EUR) and the American Dollar (currency:USD). The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate has climbed after the Euro softened on talks of quantitative easing (QE). A quick forex market summary before we bring you the rest of the report: Pound to... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Pound to Euro Forecast: GBP/EUR Exchange Rate Recovers from the Lows Following Positive GDP

    Tom Trevorrow
    26 Nov 2014 | 8:00 am
    Our Trader View: Near-Term Pound Sterling to Euro exchange rate news, predictions, analysis and latest short-term forecast. The Pound gained against all 16 of its major counterparts yesterday with significant gains against the commodity sensitive currencies as the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney reiterated that his team of rate... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Exchange Rates Summary for Today's Pound Sterling, Euro, Rupee, Rand and US Dollar Conversions

    Colin Lawrence
    26 Nov 2014 | 8:00 am
    Multi-currency update for the Euro, Pound, Rupee and the Dollar exchange rates today. The Euro has softened against a host of other majors after the European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Vitor Constancio stated that the central bank was preparing to buy sovereign debt if needed. A quick FX market summary before we bring you the... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Near-Term Summary on Exchange Rate Markets

    Tony Redondo
    26 Nov 2014 | 7:30 am
    Our Short-Term exchange rate forecast for the Pound Sterling (currency:GBP) to the US Dollar (currency:USD). The Pound Dollar exchange rate fell in yesterday’s foreign exchange market to trade within 50 cents of the 14 month low registered earlier this month. A quick FX market summary before we bring you the rest of the... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Pound Rate Today: GBP/USD Rises Despite Mortgage Approvals; GBP/EUR Struggles

    Adam Solomon
    26 Nov 2014 | 7:00 am
    The British Pound found support close to 1.5650 against the US Dollar last night but struggled to advance beyond 1.26 versus the Euro. The UK currency did continue making strong gains against commodity based currencies, despite the decline in BBA mortgage approvals to 17-month lows, which maintained expectations of an underlying slowdown.... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
 
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    BusinessClimate.com Blog

  • College Graduates: (City) Size Doesn’t Matter

    Bill McMeekin
    25 Nov 2014 | 3:30 am
    On the heels of a new study by the urban policy think tank City Observatory that shows college graduates favoring medium-sized cities over large urban centers like New York and San Francisco comes a new study by demographer Joel Kotkin and the folks at the Praxis Group. And that analysis of 380 MSAs finds that the places adding college graduates the fastest are in even smaller places than mid-size metros. Yes, St. George UT, Bloomington IN, Hattiesburg MS and Wilmington NC have increased their percentage of college graduates at a faster clip between 2000 and 2013 than New York, Los Angeles…
  • Talent Trajectory: Graduates Seeking Culturally Cool, Affordable Cities

    Emily McMackin
    21 Nov 2014 | 6:00 am
    Young, college-educated graduates have a definite path they are following after graduation – one that no longer automatically leads in the direction of mega-cities like New York, Chicago, San Francisco and Atlanta. Instead that path is taking them to more spacious, affordable metros like Houston, Nashville, Denver, Austin and Portland – cities with growing urban centers, culturally cool offerings, and jobs and amenities coveted by Millennials. According to a new report released by City Observatory, an urban policy think tank supported by the Knight Foundation, more graduates are moving…
  • Energy, Technology Driving Economic Recovery, GDP Growth Nationally

    Emily McMackin
    13 Nov 2014 | 6:00 am
    The road to economic recovery has been a long one for many cities across the U.S. since the Great Recession ended. Just a handful of regions have experienced full recovery, and many of the nation’s largest cities are still reeling from fiscal turmoil that has forced permanent cuts in public services. Despite the obstacles, some cities have come back stronger since the Recession — and many of these are speeding ahead of others in income and GDP growth. What’s their secret? Economic growth in these metros are fueled by two common factors: energy and technology. In a NewGeography…
  • Trends in Economic Development: Texas, Talent and More

    Bill McMeekin
    5 Nov 2014 | 3:30 am
    The BusinessClimate.com blog celebrated a birthday last month. Now that we’ve blown out the candles and put the party hats back in the closet, we reflect on some trends in economic development that have emerged since we launched this blog. 1) This is the Texas Decade. There aren’t many industry sectors in which the Lone Star State has not developed a critical mass. It has long been an energy capital, but it has added an impressive renewal energy sector to its portfolio along with aerospace and aviation, life sciences, information technology and advanced manufacturing segments…
  • Airports and Site Location: New Lift for HQs

    Bill McMeekin
    29 Oct 2014 | 3:30 am
    How ’bout them airports? In the age of the global economy, airports and site location go together like a tray table locked in the upright position. Proximity to a major airport, especially one that offers international service, has become one of the key metrics in a location decision for a headquarters. A hub airport, same-day turnaround abilities and the number of direct flights to key destinations can tilt a location decision. It certainly matters to the major corporations. Some 40 percent of Fortune 500 headquarters are in range of one of the 10 busiest airports in the U.S. When…
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    The Conscience Blog

  • Great Read

    Iyobosa
    17 Nov 2014 | 12:35 am
    Hello world. Today’s read is from long time Daily Telegraph columnist Liam Halligan. Halligan has accurately pointed to flaws in the current economic revival attempt and has pointed the finger at the current recovery effort in its unfortunate failures to lead to genuine economic growth. In the coming weeks I’ll be discussing the economic effort as we approach the next election in 2015. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11233155/Recovery-The-UKs-economic-revival-is-far-from-secure.html
  • Scottish Independence: Be Careful What You Wish For

    Iyobosa
    18 Sep 2014 | 2:48 am
    Scottish not British This is a special piece about the SNP’s attempts for a Currency Union with the rest of the UK. It is flawed and the implications could be drastic. All patriotic rhetoric aside, the Scottish people should be careful of what they wish for. Without question the potential breakup of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is a monumental and truly unique event. The Scottish people have been granted their request for the right as Scots to self-determination. This would result in much greater powers shifting away from Westminster and into the Scottish…
  • Tricky Situation

    Iyobosa
    17 May 2014 | 2:41 am
    Government’s current stance with regards to the potential Pfizer takeover of AstraZeneca sends mixed messages about UK recovery.  Chairman & CEO Ian Read David Cameron’s stance with regards to Pfizer’s potential takeover of AstraZeneca is somewhat peculiar. Research & Development especially in the Science industry signals innovation, persistence and longevity. Therefore the employment associated to the Science industry appears to be the kind that the UK economy desperately requires in order to aid the fragile recovery. The anomaly comes as a surprise because both the Prime…
  • Great Read

    Iyobosa
    11 May 2014 | 6:00 am
    Hello World. Liam Halligan has a reputation as a straight-talking, logical and insightful journalist and this piece is no different. In his piece in The Telegraph Halligan discusses the present banking system in place in the UK and more specifically highlights the link between Investment and retail divisions. He goes on to explain and clarify that only complete separation will ensure catastrophic government bail-outs will not occur in the future, which could potentially save taxpayers billions. I’ve touched on this issue here.  …
  • Great Read

    Iyobosa
    27 Jan 2014 | 10:59 am
    Hello world. This is a post from the fantastic Systemic Disorder blog. It relates to my previous feature, where I detail the changing London landscape. The piece featured highlights some of the synonymous traits parts of New York City have undergone as a result of gentrification. http://systemicdisorder.wordpress.com/2012/08/08/the-corporate-steamroller-of-gentrification-is-a-deliberate-process/
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    Latest blog entries

  • 7 Red Letter Dates in the Ebola Pandemic

    1 Nov 2014 | 3:05 pm
    By all indications, the Ebola epidemic in West Africa continues to spread exponentially, that is to say that the rate of infection is increasing at an ever-increasing rate. According to the WHO, possibly 40,000 cases are present in West Africa, while projecting from past data says the number is around 25,000. Using the latter model, these seven signposts for the epidemic were established.   The purpose of this article is to provide a benchmark to evaluate the progress of the disease as it progresses. As these dates pass, readers will be able to evaluate whether conditions are continuing…
  • Don't Fear the Robots: Automation is a Good Thing

    19 Oct 2014 | 2:57 pm
    Uncreative minds are at it again, riding that ancient saw telling us innovation will put us all permanently out of a job. Admittedly, automation and innovation will eliminate certain jobs, and at times it can appear hopeless, but the computer revolution is but the fart of a gnat when compared to the industrial revolution. We've weathered far more drastic revolutions of labor and capital in the past, for the better, and this time isn't different. In the 1700's, a group of people called Luddites, decided that the power loom was the very end of their livelihood, and that the best course of…
  • Ebola Coming to Europe Next

    23 Sep 2014 | 7:00 pm
    Even as I write, a ship is steaming directly to Amsterdam from the hot zone of the worst Ebola epidemic of all time. It's an ordinary cargo ship, and in a week or two, its crew will be downing beers and visiting the local talent of one of Europe's biggest port cities. The worst part is, it's not the only one. A flotilla of cargo ships leave from Europe each month to visit a variety of West African ports. The last of these ports, terrifyingly, are in each of the Ebola-stricken countries. As if it were perfectly intentional, these ships return straight away to Hamburg or Amsterdam for more…
  • Vladmir Putin: King of the Trashtalkers

    20 Sep 2014 | 2:35 pm
    I'm pretty down on government officials, elected or otherwise, I make no secret of it. But, I do love to watch a good game, and I can appreciate a master when I see one. While Vladimir Putin is a despot extraordinaire, he is awfully good at what he does. Truth be told, Michael Jordan wasn't paid millions in sponsorships and salary because he could put a ball through a net. He was paid his megamillions because he was fun to watch. If he put people to sleep while playing, no one would know his name. It was his miraculous dunks, his whirling fakeouts and electrifying play that made him a star.
  • Just Wars are Easy to Explain

    7 Sep 2014 | 6:58 pm
    A just war, or a morally justifiable war, should look like a morally (and legally) justifiable killing. The reasoning behind a just war should be quick to explain, with an obvious motive like self defense. It should be nearly impossible to find fault with a just war. By comparison, the longwinded articles that I'm reading on the Wall Street Journal reference Neville Chamberlain, Henry Kissinger, soft power, appeasement and isolationism while trying, and trying hard, to get people to sign the dotted line for another war. It got me to wondering: because the pro-war articles are long, is that…
 
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    FT Alphaville

  • FirstFT (the new 6am Cut)

    Amie Tsang
    26 Nov 2014 | 10:07 pm
    The drop in oil prices has hit the energy sector and national budgets – now it’s affecting banks too. Barclays and Wells Fargo face huge potential losses on a USD850m loan to help fund the merger of two US-based oil companies. Investors balked at buying the loan when oil prices were slumping and credit markets were volatile. (FT) Opec convenes in Vienna today – with the price of oil now under USD80 a barrel, some countries will want to cut output to boost oil prices but others will push against that to maintain their market share. Meanwhile the International Energy Agency is…
  • Something to be thankful for: the US government has finally stopped holding back the recovery

    Matthew C Klein
    26 Nov 2014 | 9:30 am
    It’s no secret that spending cuts (and tax hikes) have retarded America’s growth for the past four years. But data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis suggests that the era of austerity may finally have ended. The following chart shows the contribution of government and private spending to annual GDP growth, since the start of 2005: Continue reading: Something to be thankful for: the US government has finally stopped holding back the recovery
  • Opec price wars, then and now

    Izabella Kaminska
    26 Nov 2014 | 9:15 am
    Some wise comments from our esteemed FT colleagues on Opec’s price war: Cutting production only makes sense if there is strong reason to believe that the glut is temporary; and even then it makes better sense in low-cost fields, where not too much capital is tied up, than in high cost ones. Unless, of course, the oil price falls below the operating cost of a high cost field. That is thought to be about $7 a barrel in the North Sea. That is the economic reason why everything depends on Opec, which still controls much of the low-cost oil in world trade. For the moment, most observers are…
  • FirstFT (the new Lunch Wrap)

    Amie Tsang
    26 Nov 2014 | 3:43 am
    Missouri’s governor ordered 2,200 more guardsmen into Ferguson after a night of violence in several US cities sparked by a decision not to indict Darren Wilson, the white police officer who shot Michael Brown, an unarmed black teenager. (FT, NYT) The decision made this a rare case – grand juries nearly always choose to indict in cases that don’t involve police officers. The Washington Post visualised what happened based on the scenario laid out by St Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Robert McCulloch. (FiveThirtyEight, WaPo $) In the newsContinue reading: FirstFT (the new…
  • Markets Live: Wednesday, 26th November, 2014

    Paul Murphy
    26 Nov 2014 | 3:00 am
    Live markets commentary from FT.com Continue reading: Markets Live: Wednesday, 26th November, 2014
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    Marginal REVOLUTION

  • Keynes is slowly losing (winning?)

    Tyler Cowen
    26 Nov 2014 | 9:48 pm
    Paul Krugman has an interesting blog post arguing that Keynes is slowly winning.  But, I must admit, I find it dismaying how little of the contrary evidence is considered.  Let’s say you set out to write a blog post about Keynes losing, what might you cite?: 1. Keynesians predicted disaster following the American fiscal sequester, and the pace of the recovery accelerated. 2. Even Obama and the Democrats are writing down, and seeing through, budgets with declining levels of discretionary spending. 3. The UK saw a rapid recovery, and the BOE kept nominal gdp growing at a good pace, even…
  • Many workers will end up above-average too

    Tyler Cowen
    26 Nov 2014 | 2:31 pm
    …of those in middle-skill occupations who remain in a full-time job, about 83 percent are still working in a middle-skill job one year later. … What types of jobs are the other 17 percent getting? Mostly high-skill jobs; and that transition rate has been rising. The percent going from a middle-skill job to a high-skill job is close to 13 percent: up about 1 percent relative to before the recession. The percent transitioning into low-skill positions is lower: about 3.4 percent, up about 0.3 percentage point compared to before the recession. This transition to a high-skill…
  • The referenda that are Swiss

    Tyler Cowen
    26 Nov 2014 | 7:56 am
    The most contentious may be one put forward by a group called Ecopop, which would limit immigration to 0.2 per cent of the resident population. That has alarmed businesses, who worry it would make it harder to hire skilled staff and sour relations with the EU, which is Switzerland’s largest export market. Another initiative would force the central bank to hold 20 per cent of its assets in gold, as well as ban it from selling any of its holdings of the metal. Gold bug supporters say it would strengthen Switzerland’s independence but the central bank has warned it will make harder its job…
  • Assorted links

    Tyler Cowen
    26 Nov 2014 | 6:46 am
    1. What happens when China pledges zero emissions.  And financial repression is easing in China. 2. The strange world of computer-generated novels.  And are board games back? 3. “Dogs use a very smart (mechanism) to optimize their drinking,…”  Cats too. 4. MIE: James Watson is selling his Nobel Prize. 5. Daniel Pink’s Crowd Control tries to bring behavioral economics to TV.  And Ben Powell’s TV show.
  • When did Korea clean up its air? (Korea fact of the day)

    Tyler Cowen
    25 Nov 2014 | 10:54 pm
    If you are going to ask “when will China clean up its air?”, you might wish to look at South Korea, a country with a broadly similar industrial profile, although of course Korea is much further along in terms of economic development. As of 2002, South Korea was ranked 120th of 122 countries for air quality by the World Economic Forum.  And at that time South Korea was pretty much a fully developed nation, economically speaking that is.  South Korea was also already a democracy, and we know from Casey Mulligan (with Gil and Sala-i-Martin) that democracies tend to have cleaner air…
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    Zero Hedge

  • He Blew THeM ALRiGHT...

    williambanzai7
    26 Nov 2014 | 6:48 pm
      "We blew it..." Schmuck Schumer
  • Guest Post: A Rant - What I Learned From Ferguson

    Tyler Durden
    26 Nov 2014 | 6:33 pm
    A 'pull no punches' Rant... Authored by Hope@ZeroKelvin via The Burning Platform blog, 1. Several generations of liberal progressive policies RE the black community have created a critical mass of impoverished, illiterate and perpetually aggrieved black folks that can be ginned up and pointed at the enemies of the Regime – or just let loose to wreak havoc/chaos on anybody unlucky enough to be in their way. Please note that Ferguson and all the other big protests last night were in BLUE cities/counties. 2. This liberal progressive brainwashing has affected whites as well RE the whole…
  • "Now That's What I Call A Bubble"

    Tyler Durden
    26 Nov 2014 | 5:52 pm
    "But the truth remains that few ever recognise the early stages of exuberance as attention is typically being diverted the other way." Some food for thought from history... At its peak Japan’s equity market constituted 42 per cent of global market capitalisation and Toyota was making more money from trading derivatives than selling cars.     Shares in the elite Industrial Bank of Japan rose sixteen fold between 1984 and 1989 to a price/earnings ratio of 170 times. It did not matter that IBJ’s free-float was just four per cent – a $130bn market cap ($250bn today’s money)…
  • Stimulate This! Thoughts On Intergenerational Fairness

    Tyler Durden
    26 Nov 2014 | 5:29 pm
    Submitted by Erico Matia Tavares via Sinclair & Co., Since this is the season for giving thanks in the US, we might give some consideration to the unsung heroes who have been underwriting a big chunk of our economic recovery of late. Actually, we literally owe our future to them - in more ways than one. We recently asked a bright young economics student from a prominent European university about the right role of government in an economy. And the answer, somewhat predictable: "well, to stimulate it!" When we then asked how the government pays for that stimulus, and what impact it will…
  • Insight on Automation

    Tim Knight from Slope of Hope
    26 Nov 2014 | 4:43 pm
    A Sloper sent me an email, which I liked so much that I asked if I could make a post out of it; he kindly agreed to this, so here you are: I read your post Pity the Sub Genius and agreed with a lot of what you wrote. However you missed what I think is the biggest killer of middle class jobs, and that is technological innovation. For sure many companies moved production overseas for the cheaper labor but I do not believe that to be the biggest reason for job loss. I can remember all through the 90's up until today that one of the main drivers of corporate profits was the steady,…
 
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    nextnewdeal.net

  • There Will Be Another Michael Brown: Millennial Perspectives on Ferguson

    tprice
    26 Nov 2014 | 8:30 am
    In the wake of the announcement that Ferguson police officer Darren Wilson would not stand trial for the shooting death of Michael Brown, members of our Networks shared their views on what's unfolding in Missouri and what it means for us as a nation. Marissa Charlemagne, Campus Network member and junior at Goucher College: I was in a Roosevelt meeting when I heard the news of the non-indictment of Officer Darren Wilson. As I looked around the room at all the faces, at all the colors of those faces -- black, white, and brown -- there was not a sense of surprise, nor shock, nor sorrow. The room…
  • Artisanal Millennials and the Resurrection of Free Labor Ideology

    rgoldfarb
    25 Nov 2014 | 6:00 am
    Millennial's rising preferences for artisanal, local, and genuine products must not minimize the importance of wage labor in the economy. In July, John Oliver’s Last Week Tonight summarized the state of the minimum wage debate in one grand old super-cut of sound bytes. To top off repeated invocations of “class war!” Senator Marco Rubio croons that “We have never been a nation of haves and have-nots. We are a nation of haves and soon-to-haves. Of people who have made it and people who will make it.” Putting aside Oliver’s observation that this statement “makes no sense –…
  • Bigger Health Care Providers Mean Bigger Profits, But Not Always Better Care

    rgoldfarb
    24 Nov 2014 | 4:27 am
    Hospitals are buying private physician practices left and right, and state attorneys general should consider whether such mega-providers violate anti-trust laws. In 2002, only 22 percent of private physician practices were owned by hospitals. Today, this number has climbed to more than 50 percent, and 75 percent of newly hired physicians are entering the workforce as hospital employees. As the physician population ages, the behaviors of young physicians will have long-term impact on the organization and norms of care delivery. Amid declining reimbursements and a shift toward value-based…
  • Leadership Wanted: Governor Cuomo, Homeless Students Need College Support

    rgoldfarb
    20 Nov 2014 | 4:51 am
    For homeless youth to make it through college, they need extra support, best provided through a government program of homeless liaisons. New York has been among the top 10 states with unaccompanied homeless youth (UHY) filing for federal financial aid for the last three years. In a private report to the National Association for the Education of Homeless Children and Youth, the United States Department of Education, reports that there were 2,215 college students applying for financial aid in New York who indicated on their Free Application for Federal Student Aid that they were homeless last…
  • A Dem Who Can Explain that Fairness is Prosperity Will Sweep in 2016

    rgoldfarb
    19 Nov 2014 | 12:26 pm
    The policies that will deliver economic growth also center fairness, and that's what Democrats need to emphasize to keep the presidency in 2016. The familiar debate within the Democratic Party – move left or right – is on. In a memo to a “limited number of Democratic leaders,” Third Way, the leading organization for corporate Democrats, lays down the gauntlet: “Democrats are offering economic fairness, but voters want economic growth and prosperity.” And for good measure, Third Way declares, “And it has to be meaningful; Democrats can’t simply stick a 'growth' label on the old…
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    Jared Bernstein | On the Economy

  • The tax extender package: a lame duck turkey

    Jared Bernstein
    26 Nov 2014 | 7:16 am
    On the assumption that, like me, you’re either running to get somewhere for Thanksgiving or preparing for the arrival of a bunch of peeps running towards you, I apologize for breaking in with a weedy tax discussion. But break in I must, as while you’re innocently stuffing a bird, candying the yams, and burning the rolls, there’s an effort afoot to jam some nasty tax policy through the system. I’m talking about the so-called “tax extenders” package, a dog’s breakfast of permanent tax breaks mostly for businesses that would add over $400 billion to the ten-year budget deficit…
  • A deeper dive into the weeds of the CBO household income data

    Jared Bernstein
    25 Nov 2014 | 3:57 am
    Yesterday, I published a report by myself and Ben Spielberg analyzing the Congressional Budget Office’s comprehensive data series on household income. Here we dive a bit deeper into some of the weeds, expanding on some of our findings. One motivation for our report was to correct the record of those who claim that the trend of increasing income inequality is significantly reduced when accounting for government taxes and transfers. In fact, as we show, between 1979 and 2011, inequality measured by the Gini coefficient rose 24% based solely on market outcomes and by 22% based on CBO’s…
  • Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE 11/12 — 11/24

    Jared Bernstein
    24 Nov 2014 | 9:34 am
    Looking at the economics of falling oil prices and the Keystone XL pipeline. Explaining the bubble, bust, repeat cycle and its relationship our high levels of inequality. Questioning our ability to accurately assess the natural rate of employment. Debunking a common mistake — overestimating the contribution of immigration to the increase in poverty. Describing why (in weak economies) monetary and fiscal policy are complements, not substitutes. Pointing out that when Minsky raises an eyebrow, I pay attention and so should you. Analyzing the economics and politics of the President’s…
  • Higher inequality any way you cut it: a review of CBOs updated comprehensive income series.

    Jared Bernstein
    24 Nov 2014 | 5:40 am
    My CBPP colleague Ben Spielberg and I poured through the update of the CBO’s invaluable comprehensive income series. Here’s are the key findings but please be sure to see our full report here. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently updated their series on the distribution of household income and federal taxes, providing important new information about the evolution of income inequality, comprehensively measured. We find: –The increase in income inequality since the late 1970s has occurred both before and after taxes and transfers. Thus, according to these data,…
  • A bit on the economics/politics of the President’s immigration action.

    Jared Bernstein
    21 Nov 2014 | 7:06 am
    Over at PostEverything.
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    Freakonomics

  • The Man Who Would Be Everything: A New Freakonomics Radio Podcast

    Stephen J. Dubner
    20 Nov 2014 | 7:00 am
    Boris Johnson: mayor of London, raconteur, painter of old cheese boxes. You can call him Al. What is Boris Johnson? A better question might be: what isn’t Boris Johnson? He is, inter alia, the Mayor of London; a prolific author, journalist and, as of this month, a biographer of Winston Churchill; a once and possibly future Member of Parliament; a potential future Prime Minister himself despite being a “self-styled joke” who occasionally gets stuck on a zip-line; an American by birth (and U.S. passport holder). He is also, as you’ll hear in our latest Freakonomics…
  • The Man Who Would Be Everything Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    20 Nov 2014 | 6:55 am
    This is a transcript of the Freakonomics Radio podcast “The Man Who Would Be Everything” [MUSIC: Seks Bomba, “The Cat” (from Operation B.O.M.B.A. Stephen J. DUBNER: On this week’s episode, Boris Johnson drops by to chat about being: Mayor of London; a writer; a great admirer of — and now biographer of — Prime Minister Winston Churchill; a potential future prime minister himself; and, most singularly, he chats about just being Boris Johnson: Boris JOHNSON: I love… I love… old wooden tennis rackets. DUBNER: There are other old things he loves. JOHNSON: I…
  • Why Do People Keep Having Children? A New Freakonomics Radio Podcast

    Stephen J. Dubner
    13 Nov 2014 | 7:00 am
    (Photo: DVIDSHUB) What are the factors that make a given person more or less likely to have children? How important are income, education, and optimism about the future? Is it true that “development is the best contraceptive,” as demographers like to say? And is the global population really going to double by the next century? (Probably not — in fact, one U.N. estimate finds that the population in 2100 could be lower than today.) These are some of the questions we ask in this week’s episode, “Why Do People Keep Having Children?” (You can subscribe to the podcast at…
  • Why Do People Keep Having Children? Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    13 Nov 2014 | 6:55 am
    This is a transcript of the Freakonomics Radio podcast “Why Do People Keep Having Children?” [MUSIC: Madrona Music, “Stomp It”] EMILY OSTER: My name is Emily Oster, I’m an economist, I work at Brown University. DUBNER: Cool. Let me ask you this easy question, we’ll start. Why do people have kids, Emily? I mean biological imperative apart, unless it’s all the biological imperative. OSTER: I think this is probably an open question for debate. I think many people would tell you that it’s the biological imperative, I think that some people would tell you, you know, kids…
  • Good News For People Who Rely on Movie Reviews

    Stephen J. Dubner
    10 Nov 2014 | 7:37 am
    According to a new working paper by Stefano DellaVigna and Johannes Hermle, movie reviews aren’t biased by media ownership. The paper is called “Does Conflict of Interest Lead to Biased Coverage? Evidence from Movie Reviews.” Here’s the abstract: Media outlets are increasingly owned by conglomerates, inducing a conflict of interest:  a media outlet can bias its coverage to benefit companies in the same group.  We test for bias by examining movie reviews by media outlets owned by News Corp. — such as the Wall Street Journal — and by Time Warner —…
 
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    interfluidity

  • Some thoughts on QE

    Steve Randy Waldman
    2 Nov 2014 | 1:28 am
    “Quantitative Easing” — economics jargon for central banks issuing a fixed quantity of base money to buy some stuff — has been much in the news this week. On Wednesday, US Federal Reserve completed a gradual “taper” of its program to exchange new base money for US government and agency debt. Two days later, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly expanded its QE program, to the dramatic approval of equity markets. I have long been of two minds regarding QE. On the one hand, I think most of the developed world has fallen into a “hard money” trap, in which…
  • Rational regret

    Steve Randy Waldman
    28 Oct 2014 | 6:05 am
    Suppose that you have a career choice to make: There is a “safe bet” available to you, which will yield a discounted lifetime income of $1,000,000. Alternatively, there is a risky bet, which will yield a discounted lifetime income of $100,000,000 with 10% probability, or a $200,000 lifetime income with 90% probability. The expected value of Option 1 is $1,000,000. The expected value of Option 2 is (0.1 × $100,000,000) + (0.9 × $200,000) = $10,180,000. For a rational, risk-neutral agent, Option 2 is the right choice by a long-shot. A sufficiently risk-averse agent, of…
  • Econometrics, open science, and cryptocurrency

    Steve Randy Waldman
    17 Oct 2014 | 7:29 am
    Mark Thoma wrote the wisest two paragraphs you will read about econometrics and empirical statistical research in general: You are testing a theory you came up with, but the data are uncooperative and say you are wrong. But instead of accepting that, you tell yourself "My theory is right, I just haven't found the right econometric specification yet. I need to add variables, remove variables, take a log, add an interaction, square a term, do a different correction for misspecification, try a different sample period, etc., etc., etc." Then, after finally digging out that one…
  • Scale, progressivity, and socioeconomic cohesion

    Steve Randy Waldman
    11 Oct 2014 | 6:33 am
    Today seems to be the day to talk about whether those of us concerned with poverty and inequality should focus on progressive taxation. Edward D. Kleinbard in the New York Times and Cathie Jo Martin and Alexander Hertel-Fernandez at Vox argue that focusing on progressivity can be counterproductive. Jared Bernstein, Matt Bruenig, and Mike Konczal offer responses offer responses that examine what “progressivity” really means and offer support for taxing the rich more heavily than the poor. This is an intramural fight. All of these writers presume a shared goal of reducing inequality…
  • Links: UBI and hard money

    Steve Randy Waldman
    26 Sep 2014 | 6:33 am
    Max Sawicky offers a response to the post he inspired on the political economy of a universal basic income. See also a related post by Josh Mason, and a typically thoughtful thread by interfluidity‘s commenters. I’m going to use this post to make space for some links worth remembering, both on UBI and hard money (see two posts back). The selection will be arbitrary and eclectic with unforgivable omissions, things I happen to have encountered recently. Please feel encouraged to scold me for what I’ve missed in the comments. With UBI, I’m not including links to…
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    Credit Writedowns

  • Consumption taxes, inflation and low wage growth in Japan lead to recession

    Edward Harrison
    17 Nov 2014 | 5:13 am
    The following is an abbreviated version of a post from Credit Writedowns Pro from 7 Nov 2014 I caught a chart from a Martin Wolf missive that I thought was quite astonishing. This chart shows central bank assets relative to economic output making an absolutely hockey stick-style increase in Japan in the wake of Abenomics. I don’t know yet what exactly to make of this chart but I want to use this column to work out some of my thinking associated with it. My hope is to use this as fodder for a segment I want to do on the TV show I produce. The Martin Wolf message was as follows: So what…
  • Central banks, inflation, currency wars and the Japanese experiment

    Edward Harrison
    17 Nov 2014 | 5:02 am
    The following is an abbreviated version of a post from 31 Oct 2014 at Credit Writedowns Pro Coming on the heels of the US Federal Reserve’s announcement that it would stop expanding its balance sheet with large scale asset purchases, the Bank of Japan’s announcement was music to the ears of Japanese equities investors. And shares in Japan promptly rose 4.8% on the news. The larger question, however, is whether QE is effective either at shaping future inflation or inflation expectations or at increasing nominal and real GDP. The evidence is equivocal. And so Japan presents a unique…
  • Banks, Japanese trade, the currency wars and deflation

    Edward Harrison
    17 Nov 2014 | 4:55 am
    This is an abbreviated version of a post from Credit Writedowns from 22 Oct 2014 Banks. First, on the banking sector, one theme I have seen a lot regarding the lack of credit growth has to do with the increasingly onerous regulatory environment we live in being incompatible with prodigious credit growth. The documentation hurdles to getting a mortgage are higher now because banks are afraid that if they don’t document everything, they will be make themselves vulnerable to Fannie and Freddie being able to stick the banks with loans packaged into GSE paper if those mortgages go sour. We want…
  • Abenomics 2.0 – Just What Are They Trying To Achieve?

    Edward Hugh
    17 Nov 2014 | 4:49 am
    By Edward Hugh The recent move by the Bank of Japan to take further measures to accelerate the rate at which it ramps up its balance sheet took almost everyone – market watchers included – completely by surprise. The consequence was reasonably predictable – the yen has once more fallen strongly against almost all major currencies – and most notably against the USD – and Japan’s main stock indexes are sharply up. On the other side of the balance sheet the cost of imported goods – and especially energy – is expected to rise, real wages are likely to continue to fall, and ex-tax…
  • Zero rates, resource misallocation, and shale oil

    Edward Harrison
    10 Nov 2014 | 12:48 pm
    The following is an abbreviated excerpt of a post from 16 Oct from Credit Writedowns Pro The nexus of zero rates, resource misallocation, and risk on has favoured shale oil. But the drop in oil prices will call many of these projects into question precipitating a high yield energy funding crisis and a panic dash for the exits. There will be carnage and the question will be whether this carnage causes contagion into other markets. The catalyst for many market gyrations, as I predicted them in late September, is the global growth slowdown, especially in China. And the most important immediate…
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    Liberty Street Economics

  • Just Released: Household Debt Balances Increase as Deleveraging Period Concludes

    Blog Author
    25 Nov 2014 | 8:15 am
    Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw The New York Fed released the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the third quarter of 2014 today. Balances continued to rise slightly, with an overall increase of $78 billion. The aggregate household debt balance now stands at $11.71 trillion, up 0.7 percent from the previous quarter, but still well below the peak of $12.68 trillion in the third quarter of 2008.         The report shows increases in all types of credit, except for home equity line of credit (HELOC) balances. Overall,…
  • Bitcoin: How Likely Is a 51 Percent Attack?

    Blog Author
    24 Nov 2014 | 4:00 am
    Rod Garratt and Rosa Hayes In June 2014, the mining pool Ghash.IO briefly controlled more than half of all mining power in the Bitcoin network, awakening fears that it might attempt to manipulate the blockchain, the public record of all Bitcoin transactions. Alarming headlines splattered the blogosphere. But should members of the Bitcoin community be worried?         Miners are members of the Bitcoin community who engage in a process that validates new additions to the blockchain in exchange for a reward that comes in the form of newly issued bitcoins. The process is…
  • Historical Echoes: Postage Stamps Portray Stories of American Banking History

    Blog Author
    21 Nov 2014 | 4:00 am
    Mary Tao Prior to 1876, there was fierce competition among engraving firms and private bank note companies for contracts to print U.S. Treasury bank notes. Then, in 1877, congressional legislation established the Bureau of Engraving and Printing (BEP) as the exclusive printer of U.S. government currency.      So, the engraving firms shifted their focus to another source of revenue—postage stamps. U.S. postage stamps from the 1860s to the 1890s were known as “bank notes” because they were printed by the National Bank Note Company (which held the contract from…
  • Introducing the SCE Credit Access Survey

    Blog Author
    20 Nov 2014 | 8:15 am
    Basit Zafar and Wilbert van der Klaauw Today, we are releasing new data on consumers’ experiences and expectations regarding credit demand. We’ve been collecting these data every four months since mid-2013, as part of our Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Other data sources describing consumer credit either provide aggregates that are an interaction of credit supply and demand (such as the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel), or show only short-term changes in supply and demand (as reported by the supply side in the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey), or are too infrequent to provide a…
  • The Long-Term Unemployed and the Wages of New Hires

    Blog Author
    19 Nov 2014 | 4:00 am
    Rob Dent, Samuel Kapon, Fatih Karahan, Benjamin W. Pugsley, and Ayşegül Sahin Third in a three-part series This is the third in a series of blog posts on the topic of measuring labor market slack. In this post, we assess the relationships between short- and long-term unemployment and wages by comparing the differences in states’ experiences over the business cycle. While all states felt the impact of the Great Recession, some fared better than others. Consequently, it is possible to use differences in the composition and shifts of short- and long-term unemployment to determine whether…
 
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    The Incidental Economist

  • Turkey Doesn’t Make You Sleepy. TURKEY DOESN’T MAKE YOU SLEEPY!

    Aaron Carroll
    26 Nov 2014 | 5:30 am
    Since this is a battle I still haven’t won, once more into the breach: Happy Thanksgiving! @aaronecarroll
  • When health coverage expansion means longer waits for a doctor

    Austin Frakt
    26 Nov 2014 | 4:00 am
    The following originally appeared on The Upshot (copyright 2014, The New York Times Company). I thank Daniel Liebman for his assistance tracking down some evidence for an early draft of this post. One concern about the Affordable Care Act is that as more Americans get health insurance and start using it, those who already have coverage will have to wait longer for care. Recent research with a focus on Massachusetts suggests this may actually happen, but may not last long. Several years after the coverage expansion in that state, access to care for other, previously covered residents…
  • Posting calorie counts at chain restaurants.

    Nicholas Bagley
    25 Nov 2014 | 10:23 am
    This morning, the FDA released long-awaited rules requiring chain restaurants to post calorie counts. The rules appear considerably stiffer than most anticipated, and will cover movie theaters, some prepared foods in supermarkets, vending machines, and even alcoholic drinks. All told, this is good news in the obesity wars. But it’s important to keep the news in perspective. The evidence doesn’t back up the claim that posting calorie counts will make a dent in the obesity epidemic. Aaron’s said as much many, many times here at TIE, much to the chagrin of some in the public health…
  • Auto-renewal is a problem that defies easy solution — ctd.

    Adrianna McIntyre
    25 Nov 2014 | 7:45 am
    Yesterday I wrote that auto-renewal, as it’s currently conceived, has me worried. I must not be the only one, because a new strategy was proposed in a parcel of regulations released on Friday. Sam Baker has a helpful write-up: To tackle this problem, HHS said it’s considering offering a menu of new options when people sign up for the first time. Instead of being automatically renewed for their existing plan, consumers could ask to be switched into the cheapest plan with comparable benefits. Or, if their plans’ premiums rise by more than a certain amount—say, 5 or 10…
  • Lunches from home ain’t great, either

    Aaron Carroll
    25 Nov 2014 | 7:28 am
    I’ve heard that Twitter has been abuzz this week with pics of nasty school lunches. As if in response, JAMA Pediatrics has a study looking at lunches brought from home: Importance: The nutritional quality and cost of lunches brought from home are overlooked and understudied aspects of the school food environment. Objectives: To examine the quality and cost of lunches brought from home by elementary and intermediate school students. Design, Setting, and Participants: An observational study was conducted in 12 schools (8 elementary and 4 intermediate) in one Houston, Texas, area school…
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    LewRockwell

  • When Cops Are Unaccountable

    Paul Craig Roberts
    26 Nov 2014 | 10:01 pm
    Events in Ferguson unfolded as most aware Americans thought they would. A white prosecutor guided a grand jury to the decision that the white policeman who shot and killed a young black male had just cause and committed no crime. The black majority but politically powerless community in Ferguson consists of Americans who are constantly harassed and abused by police. The black community responded predictably to the exoneration of the white policeman. The results were riots, looting, and the destruction of property. This response hardened the whites in their view that black people are…
  • The Ferguson Trick

    Butler Shaffer
    26 Nov 2014 | 10:01 pm
    The ongoing events in Ferguson, MO, illustrate Thomas Pynchon’s point that “if they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don’t have to worry about answers.” Like the Rodney King, and Trayvon Martin cases, the killing of Michael Brown by a white Ferguson policeman provided the state and its sycophantic media an opportunity to reinforce the popular mindset that social disorder derives from the inherently divisive nature of human behavior; that violent conflict is inevitable among people; and that only the authority of the state can protect us from a “nasty, brutish, and…
  • The Paleocon Dissent

    Patrick J. Buchanan
    26 Nov 2014 | 10:01 pm
    “It is ordained in the eternal constitution of things, that men of intemperate minds cannot be free. Their passions forge their fetters.” Edmund Burke’s insight returned to mind while watching cable news coverage of the rampage in Ferguson, Missouri, after St. Louis County Prosecutor Robert McCulloch announced that officer Darren Wilson would not be indicted in the shooting death of Michael Brown. The rioting, looting, arson and gunfire that began after McCulloch relayed the grand jury’s decision, a decision long predicted and anticipated, revealed the unspoken truth…
  • Got Pain?

    No Author
    26 Nov 2014 | 10:01 pm
    There are a number of reasons to avoid taking aspirin or ibuprofen often. You may be seeking alternatives because you experience pain but like to stay away from conventional medicines.Alternatively, you could be someone who just learned about the potential dangers that come with taking aspirin and ibuprofen regularly and are ready for something different. Ibuprofen and Aspirin have been linked to anemia, DNA damage, heart disease, hearing loss, hypertension, miscarriage and even influenza mortality (these are just 7 of the over 24 adverse health effects it’s been connected with.) Long-term…
  • Searching for the Non-Aggression Principle

    Bionic Mosquito
    26 Nov 2014 | 10:01 pm
    Ferguson. Plenty of people are reacting; many violently, some ignorantly, some coming so close to the issue. So let’s put Kobe Bryant in the last camp: “You can sit here and argue about it until we’re blue in the face and protest about it,” Bryant said following practice on Tuesday at the Lakers’ practice facility in El Segundo. “Until the legal system, we have a serious legal system conversation, it’s going to keep on happening.” This would be helpful – a serious conversation. Bryant expounded those thoughts on Tuesday, saying there needs to be more “accountability” and…
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    Angry Bear

  • “The Stimulus Program Was a Smashing Success” – Gary Burtless

    Robert Waldmann
    26 Nov 2014 | 9:12 pm
    This Burtless Brookings Blog post really is a must read. Burtless notes that taxes and transfers (including both ARRA and automatic responses to the recession) prevented huge income declines for the lower 60% of US households during the great recession. In contrast high income households were hammered. Federal policy actually worked. The post is a […]
  • Longing for More, Wanting What We Have

    Dan Crawford
    26 Nov 2014 | 6:00 pm
    Dan here…sometimes just economics isn’t enough even on an economics blog. This sermon was lightly edited for readability.   by Rev. Nathan Detering  (First Parish Sherborn, MA) Longing for More, Wanting What We Have “Have compassion for everyone you meet even if they don’t want it. What seems conceit, bad manners or cynicism is always […]
  • Thanksgiving and the economics of sharing

    Dan Crawford
    26 Nov 2014 | 8:31 am
    Dan here…this piece is originally published at Oxford University Press by Angry Bear Edward Lambert. by Edward Lambert Thanksgiving and the economics of sharing For this American, my favorite holiday has always been Thanksgiving. Why? I have an image in my mind of Native Americans and colonists meeting and sharing food together; they share knowledge […]
  • Abenomics pushing companies to higher wages… Get ‘em

    Edward Lambert
    25 Nov 2014 | 9:41 am
    Well, it is about time for a higher authority to push strongly for higher wages. The Wall Street Journal has an article about the Bank of Japan’s Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda. Basically, companies need to use their increased profits and reserves to raise labor’s pay. If companies do not raise labor’s pay significantly, Abenomics will fail.
  • Open thread Nov. 25, 2014

    Dan Crawford
    25 Nov 2014 | 1:29 am
 
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    Macro and Other Market Musings

  • Another Look at Neo-Fisherism

    16 Nov 2014 | 2:03 pm
    Below the fold is a recent Twitter discussion I had with David Andolfatto and Noah Smith on Neo-Fisherism. The big takeaway from this conversation is that we all view the expected path of the consolidated government balance sheet as being a key determinant for current aggregate demand growth. This understanding has been implicit in Market Monetarist's calls for level targeting and explicit in our calls for a permanent expansion of the monetary base in a depressed economy. The fact that we have not seen rapid aggregate demand growth is strong evidence that the Fed's QE programs are not…
  • The Love Affair Conservatives Should Be Having

    22 Sep 2014 | 9:26 am
    Paul Krugman and Josh Barro are going after conservatives for their "new love affair with Canada". They claim conservatives are incorrect to view Canada's successful fiscal consolidation in the 1990s as evidence of  "expansionary austerity." Here is Krugman:Canadian austerity in the 1990s was offset by a huge positive movement in the trade balance, due to a falling Canadian dollar and raw material exports...Since we can’t all devalue and move into trade surplus, this meant that the Canadian story in the 1990s had no relevance at all to the austerity debate of 2010.Actually, the…
  • Another Bond Market Conundrum?

    1 Sep 2014 | 8:05 am
    Is the U.S. economy in the midst of another bond  market "conundrum"? The last time we had one was in 2005 when former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan became perplexed over long-term interest rates failing to rise with the tightening of monetary policy. Some observers see something similar happening today. They note that the Fed has been tightening monetary policy with its tapering of QE3 and yet the benchmark 10-year treasury interest rate has been falling since the beginning of 2014. This conundrum gets even more interesting when one looks at the five-year treasury interest rate. It has…
  • About the Fed Not Trying Hard Enough To Hit Its Inflation Target

    24 Aug 2014 | 1:16 pm
    It is hard not to be cynical when you see charts like this one. It shows what appears to be a systematic relationship over the past 6 years between changes in the Fed share of marketable treasuries and PCE core inflation: The figure indicates the Fed allows its share of marketable treasuries to change--by either engaging in LSAPs or refraining from doing so as the total share grows--so that core PCE inflation stays in the 1% to 2% corridor. Here is the scatterplot of this data:Now this is just a reduced-form relationship, but it is highly suggestive and consistent with my claim from an…
  • Talking About the Past Five Years

    22 Aug 2014 | 11:33 am
    I recently gave a talk to the Financial Planning Association of Kentucky. The slides from the presentation are below and readers of this blog with be familiar with many of them. In case you are not familiar, below is the slide outline and where to go for more information. The audience asked many questions that led the discussion beyond what was presented on the slides, including the Triffin Dilemma for US treasuries, why the Fed likes core PCE, and what is holding back the recovery. It was a lively and fun discussion. Slide Outline(1)  Monetary Policy Tightened During the Recession. See…
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    niesr.ac.uk

  • Happier workers, higher profits?

    AlexBryson
    30 Oct 2014 | 3:41 am
    Citizens' wellbeing is rising to the top of the political agenda in Britain.  Just yesterday the government and its partners announced a What Works Centre for Wellbeing which initially has over £3.5 million over three years to investigate the determinants of wellbeing and how to improve it.  This follows government investments in wellbeing metrics developed and pioneered by the Office for National Statistics which, some argue, should be the basis for
  • Can 'Tech North' take off?

    MaxNathan
    27 Oct 2014 | 3:59 am
    Rory Cellan-Jones has a nice article on the BBC website on the prospects for the Government’s ‘Tech North’ initiative, building extensively from my work with Emma Vandore on Tech City in London. Here’s some further thoughts.
  • The real policy challenge - under-utilisation of migrants' skills

    HeatherRolfe
    30 Sep 2014 | 2:46 am
    Much has been made of Ed Miliband’s failure to deliver sections of his conference speech on the economy and on immigration. But he didn’t forget to repeat the policy first announced just before the party’s 2013 conference to require employers to recruit an apprentice for every non-EU migrant they employ:  ‘If you want to bring in a worker from outside the European Union, that’s OK, but you must provide apprenticeships to the next generation’
  • Real Devolution: The Power to Borrow - Reply

    MoniqueEbell
    23 Sep 2014 | 7:30 am
    In our recent paper on devolution we argue that real power requires granting UK regions the ability to borrow in addition to tax and spending powers. In a blog post, Tony Yates suggested that this would in fact create the same mess as the Euro zone.
  • Stubborn facts?

    JonathanPortes
    9 Sep 2014 | 1:57 pm
    Toby Young (Fulbright Lecture, 2014, reported by Laura McInery): Kids can't analyse or think critically without first learning facts
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    Bruegel - Latest Updates

  • Labour force(d) mobility: Migration in Europe

    26 Nov 2014 | 2:45 am
    Last month Bruegel held an event exploring migration in the EU and the impact migration has on society and its contribution to sustainable economic growth. The free movement of labour is not only a key pillar of the European project, but also essential to the proper functioning of a monetary union. Inspired by this theme and the tone of the current political debate, we present 4 informative charts. Net migration rate per 1000 inhabitants in Europe, 2012Source: Bruegel based on Eurostat, most recent data, 2012. This heat map shows the net migration rate (immigration minus…
  • Obama’s executive action on immigration

    24 Nov 2014 | 11:06 pm
    What’s at stake: The President of the United-States announced sweeping changes to the immigration system via executive action this week to protect 5 million undocumented workers from deportation, make it easier for spouses of legal immigrants to work, and increase high-skill immigration. The action on un-authorized immigration The White House’s Council of Economic Advisers explains that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) will:Expand the existing Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program (DACA) which allows young people who came to the country before turning 16 years old who…
  • The Euro trap: on bursting bubbles, budgets and beliefs

    24 Nov 2014 | 9:05 am
    On 4 December we welcome Professor Hans-Werner Sinn at Bruegel to present his latest book, ‘The Euro Trap’, in which he provides a critical assessment of the Eurozone crisis and details the policy failures in trying to solve it. Sinn highlights the mistakes in creating a currency union without a full political union – flaws exposed by the financial crisis to devastating effect. At a time when concerns around the Eurozone’s economic malaise are growing once again, Sinn argues that the peripheral Eurozone countries are trapped in a flawed currency system and plagued by a fundamental…
  • The Euro trap: on bursting bubbles, budgets and beliefs

    24 Nov 2014 | 9:05 am
    On 4 Decembe we welcome Professor Hans-Werner Sinn at Bruegel to present his latest book, ‘The Euro Trap’, in which he provides a critical assessment of the Eurozone crisis and details the policy failures in trying to solve it. Sinn highlights the mistakes in creating a currency union without a full political union – flaws exposed by the financial crisis to devastating effect. At a time when concerns around the Eurozone’s economic malaise are growing once again, Sinn argues that the peripheral Eurozone countries are trapped in a flawed currency system and plagued by a…
  • Measuring Europe’s investment problem

    24 Nov 2014 | 12:51 am
    The President of the European Commission is worried about the investment situation in Europe and has taken the initiative to propose a €300 billion investment plan to the December European Council meeting.The hope is that the EU investment package will be significant to boost growth Under the leadership of Vice President Katainen, the Commission has designed a plan which will be announced this week. The announcement of the investment plan is scheduled to coincide with the announcement by the Commission of its assessment of national budgetary plans for 2015. The hope is that the investment…
 
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    TaxVox

  • What Falling Oil Prices Will Mean for State Budgets

    Norton Francis
    25 Nov 2014 | 8:51 am
    Oil prices are dropping…fast. This may be good news for drivers but not so good for a handful of states that use energy tax revenue to help fund their budgets. It may be especially challenging for states that rely on taxes from production of shale oil that uses methods that may be practical only at high prices. It costs $60 to $70 to produce a barrel of shale oil, leaving little margin once the price of crude dropped to the $75 range in November. Of course, the success of the controversial hydrofracking method which has opened up vast new reserves is one reason oil prices are so low. On the…
  • Reforming Corporate Taxation

    Eric Toder
    24 Nov 2014 | 2:35 pm
    The Cato Institute has organized an online forum to debate pro-growth economic policy reforms. Tax Policy Center scholars Bill Gale, Donald Marron, and Eric Toder have each contributed to the discussion. The U.S. corporate tax system is broken. The current method of taxing the profits of large, publicly traded corporations was designed for an economy in which international investment was relatively unimportant and most corporate profits were produced by tangible assets, such as machinery and buildings. It doesn’t work well in today’s economy, which features increasing globalization and a…
  • Votes and Consequences

    Renu Zaretsky
    24 Nov 2014 | 5:00 am
    With Congress away, the Daily Deduction will not publish for the rest of the week. We’ll be back as usual on Monday, December 1. Happy Thanksgiving!   In California, a tax increase breeds a budget battle and tuition hike. In 2012, Democratic Governor Jerry Brown successfully campaigned for reelection and Proposition 30: A tax increase projected to raise about $6 billion-a-year for the state’s general fund and education. Without it, the University of California Regents said dramatic cuts in funding would result in steep tuition increases. The initiative passed, and California…
  • Bigger, Cleaner, and More Efficient: A Carbon-Corporate Tax Swap

    Donald Marron
    21 Nov 2014 | 7:00 am
    The Cato Institute has organized an online forum to debate pro-growth economic policy reforms. Tax Policy Center scholars Bill Gale, Donald Marron, and Eric Toder have each contributed to the discussion. The United States could reduce its contribution to global climate change and increase domestic prosperity by taxing emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases and using the resulting revenue to reduce corporate income taxes. Such a carbon-corporate tax swap would give us a bigger, cleaner economy and avoid any need for more costly efforts to reduce emissions. This recommendation…
  • Executive Privilege, Budget Consequences, and Rolling with the Taxes

    Renu Zaretsky
    21 Nov 2014 | 5:00 am
    Shutdown, Omnibus Spending, Continuing Resolution: So many choices in the wake of an Executive Action. The newly emboldened GOP (or is it?) has several options when responding to last night’s executive order on immigration issued by President Obama. After its Thanksgiving break, Congress will have until December 11 to decide. One thing is clear: more legal immigrants mean more tax revenue, as the International Business Times explains. But TPC’s Bill Gale reminds us that no matter what happens in the near-term, Congress needs to get the long-term fiscal house in order. Across the pond, the…
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    Off the Charts Blog | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

  • In Case You Missed It…

    CBPP
    26 Nov 2014 | 10:03 am
    Off the Charts will take a break over the Thanksgiving weekend, but we’ll be back on our regular schedule on Monday.  To mark the Thanksgiving holiday, we ran a short series this week on some of the hardships that many American families face and the programs that help them make ends meet and improve their lives. Douglas Rice explained that many American children won’t have a safe, stable home this holiday season, in part due to inadequate funding and significant cuts to federal rental assistance programs. Brynne Keith-Jennings noted that the need for food assistance remains high and…
  • Reaching More Needy Americans

    Stacy Dean
    26 Nov 2014 | 9:20 am
    We’ve noted this Thanksgiving week that the safety net helps millions of Americans avert hardship and meet basic needs like food and housing.  Unfortunately, many eligible people miss out on needed help.  At a time of year when many Americans make a special effort to help the less fortunate, states and localities can redouble their efforts to connect these powerful programs to vulnerable friends and neighbors. One important area needing attention is reaching people eligible for both SNAP (formerly food stamps) and Medicaid.  In four of the five states that Urban Institute researchers…
  • Helping Children Avoid Homelessness

    Douglas Rice
    25 Nov 2014 | 10:31 am
    Many American children won’t have a safe, stable home this holiday season.   Homelessness among families with children isn’t an intractable problem; federal rental assistance — like the Housing Choice Voucher program — is an effective solution.  But funding is seriously inadequate and has faced significant cuts. Here are the numbers.  More than 1.2 million children attending public schools lack a home of their own, according to local school districts’ latest reports to the Department of Education.  Most were “doubled-up”— that is, their families lived with relatives or…
  • Food Assistance Needs Remain High

    Brynne Keith-Jennings
    24 Nov 2014 | 12:59 pm
    As many Americans prepare to enjoy Thanksgiving dinner, millions in this country still have trouble affording enough to eat.  Moreover, poverty and food insecurity, or the share of households with difficulty affording adequate food, remain well above pre-recession levels (see graph) — signs of the critical importance of SNAP and other food assistance. Food banks from Alaska to Massachusetts to Missouri to Virginia report high need in many communities, sometimes higher than in the recession.  Over half of food programs surveyed reported an increase in clients over the previous year, a…
  • In Case You Missed It…

    CBPP
    21 Nov 2014 | 11:53 am
    This week on Off the Charts, we focused on the federal budget and taxes, the safety net, health care, and state budgets and taxes. On the federal budget and taxes, Chuck Marr listed four reasons why the House approach to “tax extenders” is flawed. Paul Van de Water explained why policymakers shouldn’t adopt “dynamic scoring” for tax and spending legislation.  We rounded up several new pieces on congressional negotiations over funding levels for this fiscal year.   And Arloc Sherman warned of the impact if Congress shortchanges Census funding. On the safety net, Ife Floyd mapped…
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    Eschaton

  • Wednesday Night

    26 Nov 2014 | 6:21 pm
    Tomorrow is...
  • CoT: Killing Each Other

    26 Nov 2014 | 3:04 pm
    Been a while. But the atrocities continue.
  • Afternoon Thread

    26 Nov 2014 | 11:25 am
    Let it snow.
  • Notorious RBG

    26 Nov 2014 | 8:44 am
    Speedy recovery...
  • Officer Friendly

    26 Nov 2014 | 7:30 am
    I'm still trying to figure out if people whose experiences with the police have always been pleasant (or at least appropriate) don't believe that isn't the case for all people or just don't care.
 
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Leif and Uri need to hang out with a better class of statisticians

    Andrew
    26 Nov 2014 | 6:30 am
    Noted psychology researchers and methods skeptics Leif Nelson and Uri Simonsohn write: A recent Psych Science (.pdf) paper found that sports teams can perform worse when they have too much talent. For example, in Study 3 they found that NBA teams with a higher percentage of talented players win more games, but that teams with the highest levels of talented players win fewer games. The hypothesis is easy enough to articulate, but pause for a moment and ask yourself, “How would you test it?” So far, so good. But then they come up with this stunner: If you are like everyone we talked to over…
  • I (almost and inadvertently) followed Dan Kahan’s principles in my class today, and that was a good thing (would’ve even been more of a good thing had I realized what I was doing and done it better, but I think I will do better in the future, which has already happened by the time you read this; remember, the blog is on a nearly 2-month lag)

    Andrew
    25 Nov 2014 | 6:38 am
    As you might recall, the Elizabeth K. Dollard Professor says that to explain a concept to an unbeliever, explain it conditionally. For example, if you want to talk evolution with a religious fundamentalist, don’t try to convince him or her that evolution is true; instead preface each explanation with, “According to the theory of evolution . . .” Your student can then learn evolution in a comfortable manner, as a set of logical rules that explain certain facts about the world. There’s no need for the student to believe or accept the idea that evolution is a universal…
  • The hype cycle starts again

    Andrew
    24 Nov 2014 | 7:36 am
    Completely uncritical press coverage of a speculative analysis. But, hey, it was published in the prestigious Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PPNAS)! What could possibly go wrong? Here’s what Erik Larsen writes: In a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, People search for meaning when they approach a new decade in chronological age, Adam L. Alter and Hal E. Hershfield conclude that “adults undertake a search for existential meaning when they approach a new decade in age (e.g., at ages 29, 39, 49, etc.) or imagine entering a new…
  • On deck this week

    Andrew
    24 Nov 2014 | 6:00 am
    Mon: The hype cycle starts again Tues: I (almost and inadvertently) followed Dan Kahan’s principles in my class today, and that was a good thing (would’ve even been more of a good thing had I realized what I was doing and done it better, but I think I will do better in the future, which has already happened by the time you read this; remember, the blog is on a nearly 2-month lag) Wed: Leif and Uri need to hang out with a better class of statisticians Thurs: Quantitative literacy is tough! Or, I had no idea that, in 1958, 96% of Americans disapproved of interracial marriage! Fri: Arizona…
  • What do Rick Santorum and Andrew Cuomo have in common?

    Andrew
    23 Nov 2014 | 6:34 pm
    Besides family values, that is? Both these politicians seem to have a problem with the National Weather Service: The Senator: Santorum also accused the weather service’s National Hurricane Center of flubbing its forecasts for Hurricane Katrina’s initial landfall in Florida, despite the days of all-too-prescient warnings the agency had given that the storm would subsequently strike the Gulf Coast. The Governor: Governor Cuomo’s attempt to scapegoat the National Weather Service for an inaccurate forecast in advance is not only completely in error—the NWS did an outstanding…
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    macroblog

  • And the Winner Is...Full-Time Jobs!

    macroblog
    24 Nov 2014 | 11:29 am
    Each month, the U.S. Census Bureau for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) surveys about 60,000 households and asks people 15 years and older whether they are employed and, if so, if they are working full-time or part-time. The...
  • For Middle-Skill Occupations, Where Have All the Workers Gone?

    macroblog
    20 Nov 2014 | 5:56 am
    Considerable discussion in recent years has concerned the “hollowing out of the middle class.” Part of that story revolves around the loss of the types of jobs that traditionally have been the core of the U.S. economy: so-called middle-skill jobs. These jobs, based on the methodology of David Autor, consist of office and administrative occupations; sales jobs; operators, fabricators, and laborers; and production, craft, and repair personnel (many of whom work in the manufacturing industry). In this post, we don't examine why the decline in middle-skill jobs has occurred, just how…
  • A Closer Look at Employment and Social Insurance

    macroblog
    13 Nov 2014 | 11:49 am
    The Atlanta Fed's Center for Human Capital Studies hosted its annual employment conference on October 2–3, 2014, organized once again by Richard Rogerson of Princeton University, Robert Shimer of the University of Chicago, and the Atlanta Fed's Melinda Pitts. This macroblog post summarizes some of the discussions. Social insurance programs in the United States and other developed countries represent a large and growing share of expenditures relative to gross domestic product (GDP). Assessing the costs and benefits of the diverse programs that make up the U.S. social insurance system is…
  • Wage Growth of Part-Time versus Full-Time Workers: Evidence from the CPS

    macroblog
    10 Nov 2014 | 10:49 am
    Last week, our Atlanta Fed colleagues Lei Fang and Pedro Silos highlighted the wage growth trends of full-time and part-time workers in recent years. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), they showed relatively weak growth in hourly wages of part-time workers between 2011 and 2013. The Current Population Survey (CPS)—administered jointly by the Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—also contains wage information and has data through September 2014. We thought it would be interesting to see if the CPS data…
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    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • Osborne's idiotic idea

    chris
    26 Nov 2014 | 6:11 am
    The FT reports that George Osborne wants to make unicorn farming compulsory: The new fiscal mandate is expected to enshrine in law one area of common ground between the Tories and Lib Dems: that the cyclically adjusted current deficit should be eliminated by 2017-18. This is imbecilic. One problem is that the cyclically adjusted current deficit cannot be observed precisely. To calculate it, we must know how far away output is from its trend or potential level. But we cannot know this. As Paul Ormerod says, the idea of an output gap is just mumbo-jumbo. Comapnies don't know how much extra…
  • Advice for youth

    chris
    25 Nov 2014 | 6:39 am
    "The lower strata of the middle class" says Rick "sink gradually into the proletariat." Actually, that's not Rick. It's some 19th century beardy guy. But Rick says much the same when he says that "being middle-class just ain’t what it used to be." He's right. As I've said myself, we are seeing the degradation of a lot of hitherto middle class jobs. This poses the question: what sort of career advice should we give young people? If getting a degree and a "posh job" is no guarantee of decent money or satisfying work, the standard…
  • Wanted: class consciousness

    chris
    23 Nov 2014 | 4:29 am
    This post by Richard reminds me that we need more class-consciousness. Rightists often argue that class war can be divisive and mean-spirited. But as Richard points out, the opposite is (also?) true. The reduced salience of class divisions has led not to a healthy community spirit but to its opposite: ethnic divisions which pit natives against immigrants; and a competitive individualism which celebrates fame and which blames "losers" for their poverty. This is especially egregious because it is founded upon factual and cognitive error. Factual error, because people over-estimate the…
  • Why workers matter

    chris
    21 Nov 2014 | 5:20 am
    So far this month, the FTSE 100 has risen 2.7%. There's a link between this fact and Emily Thornberry's resignation for that tweet. The Footsie's gain is consistent with one of the strongest tendencies in finance - for Halloween to be a buy signal. This has an important and under-appreciated implication. It implies that, underneath their smart suits and brass name-plates, professional investors are in fact just like our pagan ancestors. They get gloomy around Samhain thus pushing share prices too low, and cheerful around May Day, which sends prices too high: the counterpart of…
  • The turn away from politics

    chris
    20 Nov 2014 | 6:15 am
    Julie Bindel reminds me of one of my pet theories - that nobody is much interested in politics. By nobody I don't just mean ordinary Joes and Joannas but also people who think of themselves as political, and even professional politicians. Let's start by defining politics. Oakeshott called it (pdf)  "the activity of attending to the general arrangements of a set of people whom chance or choice have brought together." Lasswell defined (pdf) it as "who gets what, when and how". Either definition will do for my purposes. Ms Bindel writes of (some?) feminists:…
 
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    Moneybox

  • Be a Decent Human Being and Don’t Go Shopping on Thanksgiving

    Jordan Weissmann
    26 Nov 2014 | 11:59 am
    This Thanksgiving, millions of Americans will slide back from their dinner tables, get in their cars, and head for a postprandial shopping trip to snap up deals at a holiday sale. Please, please do not be one of those people—both for your own sake, and out of respect for the retail staff who get dragooned into coming to work on a day they should have off with family.  I know. Complaining about our mania for holiday bargain-hunting, and that Black Friday now begins on Brown Thursday, is already a bit of a cliché. Progressive-minded writers seem to spend every November lamenting…
  • How to Buy a New iPhone for Someone on an Old Phone Plan

    Alison Griswold
    26 Nov 2014 | 10:42 am
    The iPhone 6 has already carried Apple to a record-breaking quarter and on Tuesday led the company to an unprecedented $700 billion valuation. According to a report this week, that's likely only the beginning. By one analyst's estimate, Apple will sell another 71.5 million iPhones during the current quarter and holiday season. More than half of those devices will be the big-screened iPhone 6. It's quite possible that you too want to get in on the iPhone 6 gift action—maybe for a friend, a family member, or for yourself. Which leads to the inevitable question: How do you buy a new smartphone…
  • If You See These Clothes for Sale on Black Friday, It’s Because They’re About to Be Uncool

    Laura Bradley
    26 Nov 2014 | 8:53 am
    Oh, printed pants: We hardly knew ye. Come Black Friday, retailers will slash prices on everything from iPads to high-end loose leaf tea. These price cuts are far from random—they’re strategic, designed to boost profits and prevent buildup of inventory that might later require even deeper price cuts. To help fashion retailers make the most of their sales, EDITD, a retail technology company with more than 10,000 subscribers, recently released a report containing, among other things, suggestions for clothes to discount because they’re about to be unfashionable. The company used…
  • Where Have All the Canadian Cowboys Gone?

    Alison Griswold
    25 Nov 2014 | 12:42 pm
    Bloomberg has an interesting take today on Canada's oil boom. In addition to fueling cheap gas prices, the boost in crude output is also creating a shortage of cowboys. Here's the logic behind that. As oil production and energy investments have taken off, jobs in that industry have started to pay two-thirds more than those in livestock. According to Bloomberg, specialized livestock workers in Alberta were making about $39,700 last year, while petroleum workers were earning $65,000. Nearly three-quarters of farm employers said they had trouble hiring: "It’s impossible to find…
  • Amazon Wants to Sell, Deliver, and Now Install Your Air Conditioner

    Alison Griswold
    25 Nov 2014 | 10:31 am
    Amazon already sells and deliver things. Now it wants to add installations to its roster of tricks. Starting this week, Amazon is rolling out Amazon Local Services, a sort of handyman platform, in New York, Los Angeles, and Seattle. The goal is to help customers connect with local service providers who advertise and contract out through Amazon's marketplace. According to the Wall Street Journal, it's another way for Amazon to edge onto the turf of brick-and-mortar retailers. In an effort to differentiate itself from other home-service providers, Amazon plans to offer a money-back guarantee to…
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    Economic Development Blog » Economic Development Blog -

  • Maryland Economic Development Grant Helps Establish Garrett County Cheese Facility

    Economic Development HQ.com
    26 Nov 2014 | 9:15 pm
    State and local assistance is helping High Country Creamery and Market open a cheese manufacturing facility in the Western Maryland town of Grantsville. Grantsville, MD (photo – visitgrantsville.com) A $400,000 conditional grant from the Maryland Department of Business and Economic Development (DBED) will support the company’s plans to open a local goods and produce market, deli and cafe for residents of Garrett County. DBED Secretary Dominick Murray said in a release announcing the grant that the State is pleased to provide this project with the support it needs to become…
  • European Commission Launches $392B Investment Plan to Create 1.3M Jobs

    Economic Development HQ.com
    26 Nov 2014 | 7:13 am
    The European Commission today announced a major new €315 billion (over $392.5 billion) investment plan that seeks to fuel economic development and create 1.3 million jobs. European Commission (photo – Amio Cajander/flickr) The core of the investment plan is the new European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI), guaranteed with public money. To start with, the EU is creating a €21 billion ($26.17 billion) Fund that includes €5 billion from the European Investment Bank (EIB) and another €16 billion guarantee from the EU. The €21 billion reserve will enable the EIB to provide…
  • ESD Approves $12M Funding for New York Economic Development Projects

    Economic Development HQ.com
    25 Nov 2014 | 8:13 pm
    The Board of Directors of Empire State Development has approved $12 million in New York economic development incentives for nine projects across the state. ESD (photo – empire.state.ny.us) This $12 million in state funding will leverage more than $144 million in private and additional public funding. The nine projects being funded are directly creating at least 706 new jobs and helping retain more than 1,640 existing jobs. One of these projects is a previously announced expansion undertaken by Bombardier Mass Transit Corporation, a division of Canadian public corporation Bombardier Inc.
  • Orlando, Florida Economic Development Incentives Secure Solodev Expansion

    Economic Development HQ.com
    25 Nov 2014 | 7:22 pm
    Web and mobile app developer Solodev announced an expansion of its headquarters operations in Orlando, Florida. Photo – solodev.com The company will be investing $315,000 for construction and equipment, and expects to create 25 new tech jobs over the next three years. They already have ten employees in Florida. Orlando secured the project with the help of close partnerships between the City, Orlando Economic Development Commission, Orange County, Enterprise Florida and the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity. The 25 new jobs being created are tech jobs with an average annual wage…
  • Sylacauga Marble Quarry Plans to Resurrect Alabama White Marble Industry

    Economic Development HQ.com
    25 Nov 2014 | 7:09 am
    The belt of white marble that runs beneath the City of Sylacauga has been historically used in iconic structures including the U.S. Supreme Court, the Lincoln Memorial and other famous monuments and buildings. Translucent Sylacauga marble ceiling of the Lincoln Memorial (photo – Florian Hirzinger/Wikipedia) But the industry has faced a steady decline over the last few decades, and the creamy Alabama marble’s supply for major architectural market projects has been erratic. Bessemer, AL-based businessman Roy Swindal plans to change this and establish the new Sylacauga Marble Quarry with…
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    Washington Center for Equitable Growth

  • Afternoon Must-Read: Martin Wolf: Radical Cures for Unusual Economic Ills

    26 Nov 2014 | 11:42 am
    Martin Wolf: Radical cures for unusual economic ills: “Crises are cardiac arrests of the financial system… …The time to worry about a patient’s lifestyle is not during a heart attack. The need is to keep them alive…. In my book, The Shifts and the Shocks, I suggest that a number of shifts in the world economy created chronically weak demand in the absence of credit booms… excess savings in emerging economies… shifts in income distribution, ageing and a secular decline in the propensity to invest in high-income countries… globalisation, technological…
  • Afternoon Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Keynes Is Slowly Winning

    Brad DeLong
    26 Nov 2014 | 11:37 am
    Paul Krugman: Keynes Is Slowly Winning: “Back in 2010… I read the OECD Economic Outlook… …which called not just for fiscal austerity but for interest rate hikes–350 basis points on the Fed funds rate by the end of 2011!–because, well, because. Now the OECD is calling for fiscal and monetary stimulus…. It’s not the same people…. A new chief economist, Catherine L. Mann, whose excellent research has always been pragmatic…. But by selecting Ms. Mann the OECD was making a statement, and my sense is that the ground is shifting…. It has…
  • Afternoon Must-Read: Anne Laurie: Monday While-We’re-Waiting

    26 Nov 2014 | 11:07 am
    Anne Laurie: Monday While-We’re-Waiting: “Matt Yglesias… …[on] the new Wingnut Wurlitzer meme: Conservative pundits who didn’t like the bipartisan comprehensive immigration reform bill that passed the US Senate in 2013 also didn’t like Obama’s deportation relief through executive action. They object to both the content… and to the process… as roughly akin to overthrowing the democratic constitutional order through military force in order to establish a brutal Latin American dictator…. There are many things one could say about this comparison,…
  • Thanksgiving weekend reading

    Nick Bunker
    26 Nov 2014 | 9:16 am
    This is a weekly post we usually publish every Friday with links to articles we think anyone interested in equitable growth should read. But due to Thanksgiving, we’re posting on Wednesday so you can contemplate these links over left-over turkey sandwiches. Secular stagnation Greg Ip argues that the growing tide of elderly in wealthy countries explains a lot of secular stagnation [the economist] The Economist also created a series of accompanying graphics [the economist] Shane Ferro looks at the troubling demographic situation in Japan [business insider] Hidden wealth of nations Matthew…
  • Things to Read on the Evening of November 25, 2014

    Brad DeLong
    25 Nov 2014 | 3:39 pm
    Must- and Shall-Reads: Lars Svensson: Monetary policy tradeoffs in CESEE Grégory Claeys et al.: Measuring Europe’s investment problem Izabella Kaminska: Lies, damned lies, and liquidity expectations Simon Wren-Lewis: Left, Right and Macroeconomic Competence   Nicholas Bagley: Three Words and the Future of the Affordable Care Act: “To help people like my kids’ piano teacher, the ACA extends tax credits to anyone earning between one and four times the poverty level who buys a qualified health plan so long as the individual is ineligible for Medicaid and doesn’t have access to…
 
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    FiveThirtyEight » Economics | FiveThirtyEight

  • Offering Birth Control Over The Counter Wouldn’t Make It Any Cheaper

    Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
    18 Nov 2014 | 4:10 am
    In September, with less than three months to go before the 2014 midterm elections, some Republican candidates adopted a surprising policy position: Birth control should be sold over the counter.Cory Gardner was one of them. In a television ad for his U.S. Senate campaign in Colorado, he declared that the pill should be available “ ’round the clock, without a prescription.”At least five high-profile GOP candidates — including Thom Tillis of North Carolina — announced their support for over-the-counter birth control. (Gardner and Tillis did not respond to repeated requests…
  • More Free Lunches Could Spoil Data For Researchers

    Ben Wieder
    17 Nov 2014 | 3:02 am
    A new federal initiative that could provide millions of students with a free lunch might have an unexpected cost for researchers and state educational agencies.Starting in July, many high-poverty schools where at least 40 percent of students qualify for a free or reduced lunch could begin to offer that free lunch to every student — regardless of income — under the new community eligibility provision of the National School Lunch Program.In the process, however, expanding the program presents challenges for researchers and educators that have for decades used participation in it as…
  • How Good Are Incumbent Governors’ Economic Records?

    Ben Casselman
    4 Nov 2014 | 7:30 am
    The Wall Street Journal had an article last week on how many governors running for re-election are touting their economic records, and on how many voters aren’t buying their claims of progress. The Journal attributed voters’ skepticism largely to stagnant incomes, which makes sense. As I’ve said before, it hasn’t felt like much of a recovery for many Americans.Still, stagnant incomes are a national problem — it’s hard to blame it on specific governors. The same goes for lots of other indicators, good and bad. Incumbent governors such as Florida’s Rick Scott and Colorado’s…
  • Finding A Job With A Felony Conviction Is Hard. California May Make It Easier.

    Ben Casselman
    3 Nov 2014 | 7:53 am
    When Richard Martin was convicted of felony drug possession two decades ago, he decided it was time to get clean and get a job. Getting clean was hard. Getting a job was even harder.He was a 40-year-old recovering addict with an erratic work history and a felony conviction. Most private employers wouldn’t even look at his resume. He got a job as a teacher, but then had his teaching license revoked when the state discovered his conviction. He eventually earned a master’s degree, found work in the nonprofit sector and has never again had trouble with the law. But he knows he is lucky.“It…
  • Election Day Could Bring Raises To 680,000 Low-Wage Workers

    Ben Casselman
    30 Oct 2014 | 8:38 am
    Voters in five states — Alaska, Arkansas, Illinois, Nebraska and South Dakota — will decide on ballot initiatives proposing an increase in the states’ minimum wages. Four of the initiatives would be binding; in Illinois, the ballot measure is only advisory.The votes come at a time when the minimum wage has emerged as a national issue. President Obama has proposed raising the federal minimum wage to $10.10 an hour from its current level of $7.25. Labor activists have gone further, pushing for a $15 “living wage.”7Efforts to raise the federal minimum wage have foundered, but…
 
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    Vox - All

  • Vox Sentences: Special Thanksgiving edition

    Dylan Matthews
    26 Nov 2014 | 5:00 pm
    1. Special Thanksgiving edition Note: this is the last Sentences of the week. We'll be back on Monday. Gearing up to argue with Uncle Jerry about Ferguson? Here's the one guide you need. [Vox / Jenée Desmond-Harris] Here are four ways the holidays could literally kill you. [Vox / German Lopez] Where your Thanksgiving food comes from, in maps. [Washington Post / Roberto Ferdman] These are the best Thanksgiving sides, in order. [Vox / Alex Abad-Santos] I don't know what it even means to say that we're doing Thanksgiving bread rolls wrong but apparently we are. [Slate / LV Anderson] FDR once…
  • Police thought 12-year-old Tamir Rice was 20 when they shot him. This isn't uncommon.

    German Lopez
    26 Nov 2014 | 3:10 pm
    New details from the November 22 police shooting of 12-year-old Tamir Rice at a Cleveland park show that police officers severely overestimated Rice's age. Rice had been playing with a toy gun that looked real, which prompted at least one 911 call from a concerned witness. When police arrived at the scene, they shot Rice within two seconds of getting out of the squad car. Tamir Rice: The following is a photo of the child shot & killed by a Cleveland Police officer http://t.co/iax0yfmJqE pic.twitter.com/I5kMSZZilX — WEWS NewsChannel5 (@WEWS) November 23, 2014 "Shots fired. Male down. Black…
  • Ridley Scott didn't want to cast "Mohammad so-and-so" in his movie about ancient Egypt

    Alex Abad-Santos
    26 Nov 2014 | 1:40 pm
    For the last few months, Ridley Scott's choice to fill his Moses movie, Exodus: Gods and Kings, with white actors has been a slow-boiling controversy. On Tuesday, he addressed the casting debate head on, telling Variety that money was the reason. "I can't mount a film of this budget, where I have to rely on tax rebates in Spain, and say that my lead actor is Mohammad so-and-so from such-and-such," he told the trade magazine. "I'm just not going to get it financed. So the question doesn't even come up." Scott is trying to make the point that Christian Bale and Sigourney Weaver are big names,…
  • A one-chart summary of every Ferguson eyewitness's grand jury testimony

    German Lopez
    26 Nov 2014 | 1:20 pm
    This great PBS NewsHour chart shows an analysis of the eyewitness testimony provided to the grand jury that investigated the shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri. The chart shows many contradictions between some eyewitnesses — and lots of questions that went unanswered in different interviews. There are two key points of near agreement: Brown was facing Ferguson Police officer Darren Wilson as he was fired upon, and Brown did have his hands up during his final moments. St. Louis County Attorney Robert McCulloch has questioned the validity of the eyewitness testimony. During a…
  • Watch: The better way to board an airplane

    Joss Fong
    26 Nov 2014 | 1:00 pm
    Almost all of the airlines use the slowest boarding process, which is puzzling because they lose money for every minute the planes are on the ground instead of in the air. The video above explores some of the ways we could make the boarding process a bit less painful. For more, read: The way we board airplanes makes absolutely no sense.
 
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    Commentary - Money, Banking and Financial Markets

  • The right direction

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    24 Nov 2014 | 5:36 am
    “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.”Chinese proverb from Tao Te Ching.The recent international agreement to improve the loss-absorbing capacity of globally active banks is an important move in the right direction. But financial regulators should go significantly further to make these banks and the global financial system resilient.On November 10, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) proposed standards for global systemically important banks’ Total Loss Absorbing Capacity (TLAC). The idea behind TLAC is that, in addition to capital, large banks will be required to…
  • It's the leverage, stupid!

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    17 Nov 2014 | 5:53 am
    In the 30 months following the 2000 stock market peak, the S&P 500 fell by about 45%. Yet the U.S. recession that followed was brief and shallow. In the 21 months following the 2007 stock market peak, the equity market fell by a comparable 52%. This time was different: the recession that began in December 2007 was the deepest and longest since the 1930s.The contrast between these two episodes of bursting asset price bubbles ought to make you wonder. When should we really worry about asset price bubbles? In fact, the biggest concern is not bubbles per se; it is leverage. And, surprisingly,…
  • Monetary Policy: A Lesson Learned

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    10 Nov 2014 | 5:19 am
    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently ended another round of large-scale asset purchases, so now is a good opportunity to take stock of what Fed policy has achieved since the peak of the financial crisis in fall 2008.Back in 2002, then-Governor Ben Bernanke gave a speech entitled “Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here.” His message was that the experience of the 1930s taught us the importance of using aggressive monetary accommodation to avoid deflation. As Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, Bernanke and his colleagues…
  • A Primer on Bank Capital

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    3 Nov 2014 | 5:22 am
    "The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you've got it made." Groucho Marx When a financial system is hit by unforeseen, adverse events, bank capital is the first line of defense. Assuming the balance sheet isn’t fake (a la Groucho Marx), capital, or net worth, is the owners’ stake in the bank. Profits and losses from a bank’s activities alter its net worth, guiding investment and risk-taking. If losses wipe out its capital, the bank becomes insolvent – its assets are inadequate to cover its fixed liabilities – and typically fails.Capital helps…
  • The Importance of Being Europe

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    27 Oct 2014 | 5:28 am
    “The truth is rarely pure and never simple.”Oscar Wilde, The Importance of Being EarnestIf Oscar Wilde were still around, he could write a wonderful comedy about European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Like the life of his protagonist, Ernest John, the evolution of EMU is rarely pure and never simple. But it would take a Wilde imagination to see exactly how EMU gets to a happy ending.Despite its name, EMU was not and is not primarily an economic endeavor. Introducing the euro lowered transactions costs and facilitated the flow of trade and finance within the euro area. It also reduced…
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    Credence Independent Advisors

  • Saudi Arabia holds key to oil price as Opec meeting nears

    Thomas Crowe
    25 Nov 2014 | 2:14 am
    Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will have the final say on whether Opec cuts production when group meets this week. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest exporter of oil, holds the key to deciding whether the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) will cut production levels at its critical meeting this week as oil prices continued to come under pressure on Monday. Ali al-Naimi, Saudi’s experienced oil minister has been careful in the weeks leading up to the gathering in Vienna on November 27, saying little that would suggest that the kingdom is concerned with the current trend of lower…
  • Goldman: Pound to hit 15-year highs against the euro

    Yusuf Zaidan
    21 Nov 2014 | 10:13 pm
    We are in a “multi-year phase of a US dollar recovery” and markets are underestimating the power of the trend Sterling is to climb relentlessly against the euro over the next three years and will reach levels last seen at the turn of the century, according to new forecasts by Goldman Sachs. The US investment bank said the dollar will rise even faster as the American economy powers ahead and interest rates rise steeply, touching parity against the euro and climbing to 140 Japanese yen. The Brazilian real will tumble to 3.10 as the commodity boom continues to deflate. “We are in a…
  • Global economy hovering between growth and stagnation

    Paul Marwaha
    19 Nov 2014 | 4:25 am
    The world economy’s warning lights are flashing red, the PM said at the weekend. Here are six reasons he may be right. UK trade to the EU Ambitious plans for Britain to export its way out of trouble have foundered. The message from David Cameron was that Britain, which exports a third of its output, can expect to see little improvement in the next few years. In fact things might get much worse. Fostering an export boom was a central plank of government policy following the banking crash, when a fall in the value of the pound was supposed to further help booming demand for British goods in…
  • FTSE extends rally on bullish company updates

    Glenn Scott-Ellis
    18 Nov 2014 | 3:32 am
    (Reuters) – Britain’s blue-chip index edged higher on Tuesday, adding to weeks of gains after bullish updates from British Land and insurer Prudential. Real estate investment trust British Land rose 1.5 percent to be a top FTSE gainer after posting an 11.8 percent rise in half-year net asset value (NAV), reaping the benefits of London’s booming property market. “There were concerns regarding another easing of house prices UK wide, but the numbers look strong,” Guardian Stockbrokers director of trading, Atif Latif, said. Latif said that a positive outlook coupled…
  • G20 Brisbane: final communique lists 800 measures for economic growth

    Dermot Crawford
    17 Nov 2014 | 2:25 am
    G20 leaders approve a package estimated to increase global growth by at least 2.1% by 2018 after two-day summit. G20 leaders have approved a package of 800 measures estimated to increase their economic output by 2.1% by 2018 if fully implemented. At the end of the two-day summit in Brisbane, Australia, leaders representing 85% of the world’s economy also called for “strong and effective action” on climate change, with countries urged to reveal new emissions reduction targets in the first few months of next year. Australia, the host nation, had wanted to keep the summit focused on…
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    iTestCash.com - News

  • Man Got Away With Printing $250 Milion in Fake Currency

    Alexander Reichmann
    3 Nov 2014 | 11:29 am
    A fascinating story came out in the past year about a guy named Frank Bourassa from Canada who printed approximately 250 million in fake U.S. money over a few years. Before getting into counterfeiting, Frank Bourassa had a history with crime to make money, including stealing clothing and car parts onto stealing and selling actual cars. A little while after all of this Frank thought about how everyone was crumbling to make money and decided to skip all of that and go straight to counterfeiting money.                                                              …
  • $500,000 in Fake Merchandise Confiscated at East Indianapolis Store

    Alexander Reichmann
    13 Oct 2014 | 12:36 pm
    This past Sunday there was a big hit on a store in Indianapolis.  The store was selling hundreds of thousands dollars in fake merchandise posing as brands such as Nike, Gucci, Oakley, UGG, Polo, Otterbox, Coach, NBA, NFL, NHL, and MLB. The items confiscated included clothing such as shoes, hats and shirts, along with other items like cell phone cases and unlicensed copies of DVD movies. According to the reports, the Indiana Excise officers searched the store from about 11 a.m. until about 5:30 p.m. totaling more than 6 hours spent searching and retrieving items from the store. A trailer and…
  • $1000 Cheeseburger at Sonic: Why Businesses Need to Worry About Counterfeit Bills

    Alexander Reichmann
    16 Sep 2014 | 10:48 am
    Counterfeit money can turn up when you least expect it. This week, for example, a 22-year-old man named Christopher R. Cascio was arrested for attempting to pass off counterfeit money at Sonic, a popular fast-food restaurant chain. He was arraigned on Wednesday and is currently being held on $1,000 bail- a very expensive cheeseburger. That raises the question though, why do people do it? Passing off large bills for big ticket items might have some logic, but why bother to go through the trouble of obtaining counterfeit money only to exchange it for a $3 cheeseburger? Cascio isn’t alone. The…
  • 4 Reasons Why You Should Be Concerned About Counterfeit Currency

    Alexander Reichmann
    13 Aug 2014 | 1:29 pm
    With the modern explosion of technology and growth of electronic payments, most small businesses and individuals are no longer worried about counterfeit currency, as online and electronic fraud has become a bigger, scarier problem. Although it may seem like online fraud is more common and favored amongst fraudsters in 2014, small business owners mustn’t forget about the very real threat that is counterfeit currency. Even with all the clever, difficult-to-imitate features that the Federal Reserve has put on notes over the years, criminals still manage to counterfeit notes with the use of…
  • Counterfeit Money Being Passed at Garage Sales

    Alexander Reichmann
    3 Aug 2014 | 4:16 pm
    A news report from Kake gives notice that counterfeit money is said to be being used at garage sales in Wichita, Kansas. This likely isn't a surprise to people following news on the topic. We reported on our website a few years ago when a report came out that fake money was used at a lemonade stand which is similar to this story in how it could effect a small sale operation. This article from Kansas says that the Wichita police have seen several casess like this in the past few months of fake money being used at garage sales. They also mention that you can buy a special pen to detect if the…
 
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    Republic 3.0

  • Building the right trade policies to support the “Internet of Things”

    Edward Gerwin, Jr.
    25 Nov 2014 | 3:42 am
    The "Internet of Things" could bring the American economy trillions of dollars in future growth. Don't let trade barriers get in the way of this potential. The post Building the right trade policies to support the “Internet of Things” appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • Pay Congressional interns

    Burdett Loomis and Gary Meltz
    20 Nov 2014 | 5:32 am
    It's not just a matter of fairness. Unpaid Congressional internships limit opportunities for students who want to work on the Hill - and limit the talent pool for Hill offices. The post Pay Congressional interns appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • Q&A: Public policy and the end of life

    Republic 3.0
    18 Nov 2014 | 9:23 am
    Better and more widespread use of advance directives can help ensure that patients' wishes are respected at the end of life, says Third Way's David Kendall. The post Q&A: Public policy and the end of life appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • The answer to New York City’s affordable housing crisis is under its feet

    Leonard Grunstein
    18 Nov 2014 | 8:41 am
    Vast tracts of unused city-owned land could be the key to providing affordable housing in New York City - and potentially elsewhere. The post The answer to New York City’s affordable housing crisis is under its feet appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • Three perspectives on net neutrality

    Republic 3.0
    11 Nov 2014 | 5:50 am
    Must-read commentary from both sides of the debate from former Assistant Secretary of Commerce Everett Ehrlich, former Congresswoman Eva Clayton and Internet advocate David Sohn. The post Three perspectives on net neutrality appeared first on Republic 3.0.
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    procurementdefinition.com

  • Procurement Management

    Proc Def
    26 Nov 2014 | 2:59 am
    Procurement Management Excellent procurement departments can implement procurement management practice through the careful establishment of a procurement process framework. To optimise the functionality of the procurement process, integrated systems and people are critical. This is related to procurement definition. Procurement Management – Procurement Process Availability of a pre-established procurement process can serve to: increase efficiency, provide direction for the procurement activity, provide all procurement activity stakeholders with an understanding of the deliverables…
  • Define Procurement Plan

    Proc Def
    25 Nov 2014 | 2:25 am
    Define Procurement Plan Taking steps to define procurement plan will provide a framework for procurement activity to be organised, efficient and agreed upon by stakeholders. By way of example, procurement plans have been structured as follows. Objectives This section is where procurement department looks to align organisational strategic objectives with the procurement activity. For example cost containment and organisational social responsibility objectives may be outlined here. Background A review of the history of the procurement of the product or service is outlined. Previous learnings…
  • Define Procurement Strategy

    Proc Def
    24 Nov 2014 | 12:45 am
    Define Procurement Strategy Define Procurement Strategy – Organisational Perspective Excellent organisations generally spend substantial resources developing an organisational strategy. This involves planning and direction for the whole organisation. In order to successfully implement the organisational strategy, each part of the organisation needs to make a contribution to the strategy’s success. The organisational strategy is delegated through the establishment of specific, measurable and achievable targets to respective parts of the organisation. Each department then takes…
  • Define Procurement Process

    Proc Def
    23 Nov 2014 | 4:22 am
    Define Procurement Process It is important to define procurement process for a number of reasons. These include: Consistency in procurement activity A predetermined framework that can be agreed upon by procurement stakeholders Clarity in targets for assessing or evaluating submissions from potential suppliers Following of steps in previous similar procurement activities that were successful in obtaining a satisfactory procurement outcome A process that can be audited if necessary for probity and fairness Protection for the organisation carrying out the procurement activity and the procurement…
  • Procurement Meaning and Definition

    Proc Def
    19 Nov 2014 | 2:50 am
     Procurement Meaning and Definition The perspective of departments outside of the procurement department is that procurement is all about purchasing. This may be partially true. Procurement looks to centralise purchasing to improve economy of scale, to increase purchasing power and to reduce the overhead involved in purchasing. Procurement meaning and definition can be strongly influenced by the structured processes in place that manage procurement. Some procurement professionals like the structure around procurement process as it can remove a lot of the need to customise a procurement…
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