Economics

  • Most Topular Stories

  • 5 Takeaways From BOJ Tankan Survey

    Real Time Economics
    Takashi Nakamichi
    30 Sep 2014 | 9:20 pm
    Five takeaways from a surprisingly positive Bank of Japan tankan survey of business sentiment that will likely lessen pressure on the central bank to take further action.
  • Economists React: Weak Domestic Demand Still Hurting China

    Real Time Economics
    WSJ Staff
    1 Oct 2014 | 1:59 am
    A young boy works on a computer in a convenience store in Beijing. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images Steady and slow expansion of China’s economic activity might be what officials call the “new norm.” But when what’s driving growth is stronger demand from foreign businesses than domestic firms, the real economic situation may not be as stable as it looks. Two surveys of factory activity—an official one tilted toward large companies and a private one toward smaller ones—both held steady in September, owing to strengthened external demand. Business sentiment remains subdued, hit by…
  • Global Central Banking in 2014, a Third Quarter Update for 25 Economies

    Real Time Economics
    WSJ Staff
    30 Sep 2014 | 3:20 pm
    The cross-currents of the global economy leave the world’s central banks confronting varied policy choices in the months ahead. The U.S. and U.K. recoveries finally have enough momentum for the Federal Reserve and Bank of England to anticipate raising raise short-term interest rates from record lows next year. The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan see still weak growth and inflation prompting calls for them to provide more stimulus. Several emerging-market central banks are struggling with the twin challenges of slowing growth and high inflation. And the central banks in China and…
  • Draghi Pressures ECB to Buy "Junk-Rated" Loan Bundles of Greece and Cyprus

    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
    30 Sep 2014 | 7:00 pm
    On September 4, ECB President pulled out a financial bazooka including a pledge to build up the ECB's balance sheet by another €1 trillion.Draghi confirmed the asset purchases would "include the real estate, the RMBS, real estate ABS. It would also include a fairly wide range of ABS containing loans to the real economy," but only "the senior tranches, and the mezzanine tranches only if there is a guarantee."Now, just three weeks later, he wants to buy outright junk, presumably without guarantees.Please consider Mario Draghi pushes for ECB to accept Greek and Cypriot ‘junk’ loan bundles.
  • Gov. Jerry Brown Can't Stop Giving Orders That Expand State Power and Interventions in People's Affairs

    EconomicPolicyJournal.com
    30 Sep 2014 | 4:57 pm
    Gov. Jerry Brown has signed legislation today imposing the nation's first statewide ban on single-use plastic bags. On Sunday, his office announced that the governor signed the wacko “affirmative consent” standard for sexual assault (SEE: NUTSO California Adopts 'Yes Means Yes' Sex-Assault Rule). Brown also, on Sunday, vetoed a bill that would have required police to obtain warrants for
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Real Time Economics

  • Grand Central: Does Bernanke Deserve a Nobel Prize?

    WSJ Staff
    1 Oct 2014 | 3:55 am
    Sign up for the newsletter Highlights Hilsenrath’s Take: Does Bernanke Deserve a Nobel Prize? Fed Repo Facility Fails to Defend Short-Term Rate Floor Powell Says Fed Should Shun Direct Treasury Ties Eurozone Manufacturing Disappoints BOJ Tankan: Japan Corporate Sentiment Improves HILSENRATH’S TAKE: DOES BERNANKE DESERVE A NOBEL PRIZE? It is October, which in the geeky world of academic economics means it is Nobel Prize month, or actually in the case of the economics field, Sveriges-Riksbank-Prize-in-EconomicSciences-in-Memory-of-Alfred-Nobel month.The prizes start getting announced next…
  • Economists React: Weak Domestic Demand Still Hurting China

    WSJ Staff
    1 Oct 2014 | 1:59 am
    A young boy works on a computer in a convenience store in Beijing. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images Steady and slow expansion of China’s economic activity might be what officials call the “new norm.” But when what’s driving growth is stronger demand from foreign businesses than domestic firms, the real economic situation may not be as stable as it looks. Two surveys of factory activity—an official one tilted toward large companies and a private one toward smaller ones—both held steady in September, owing to strengthened external demand. Business sentiment remains subdued, hit by…
  • 5 Takeaways From BOJ Tankan Survey

    Takashi Nakamichi
    30 Sep 2014 | 9:20 pm
    Five takeaways from a surprisingly positive Bank of Japan tankan survey of business sentiment that will likely lessen pressure on the central bank to take further action.
  • Global Central Banking in 2014, a Third Quarter Update for 25 Economies

    WSJ Staff
    30 Sep 2014 | 3:20 pm
    The cross-currents of the global economy leave the world’s central banks confronting varied policy choices in the months ahead. The U.S. and U.K. recoveries finally have enough momentum for the Federal Reserve and Bank of England to anticipate raising raise short-term interest rates from record lows next year. The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan see still weak growth and inflation prompting calls for them to provide more stimulus. Several emerging-market central banks are struggling with the twin challenges of slowing growth and high inflation. And the central banks in China and…
  • Time for Treasury to Consider More Short-Term Debt?

    Jon Hilsenrath
    30 Sep 2014 | 1:37 pm
    The time might be approaching for the U.S. Treasury to rethink its strategy of issuing more long-term debt relative to short-term debt, a former senior U.S. Treasury official said Tuesday. The Treasury has been lengthening the average maturity of the debt it issues for several years. At 68.4 months as of June 30, the average maturity is well above its long-run average of 58.7 months and has been rising steadily since 2009. It is on pace to exceed 80 months by 2022. Interest rates are sensitive to the supply of debt the Treasury issues at different maturities. “For now the decision has been…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    naked capitalism

  • Links 10/1/14

    Yves Smith
    1 Oct 2014 | 3:55 am
  • David Sirota: Naked Capitalism – Financial Journalists’ Secret Weapon

    Yves Smith
    1 Oct 2014 | 3:23 am
    It is no coincidence that the ongoing journalism and financial crises are happening at roughly the same time. Though the government is supposed to be a watchdog, regulatory capture has often turned it into a lapdog -- the kind which, in the words of This American Life, “licks the face of an intruder, and plays catch with the intruder, instead of barking at him.” That has left the financial press to serve as the last line of defense to spotlight lawbreaking, malfeasance and fraud. And quite often, the financial press has been the watchdog that didn’t bark. There are many reasons for the…
  • Bill Black: Fed Failure – A “Perfectly Legal” Scam is Perfectly Unacceptable to Real Regulators

    Yves Smith
    1 Oct 2014 | 2:56 am
    Yves here. In this post, Bill Black does the yeoman's work of stepping through one revelation in Fed whistleblower Carmen Segarra's tapes from some of her discussions with more senior colleagues at the New York Fed. A critical section involves how Fed officials became aware of the fact that Goldman had slipped language into an already-closed transaction with the Spanish bank Santander that indicated that the Fed had been informed of the deal and had not objected, neither of which was the case. The staffers tried to rouse themselves to challenge Goldman on this misrepresentation, and lost…
  • Tom Engelhardt: How American Intelligence Works in the Twenty-First Century

    Yves Smith
    1 Oct 2014 | 12:41 am
    The American intelligence services, despite their lavish funding, are not as smart as they'd have you believe. In fact, by many standards, they are colossal failures. Why is that?
  • Wow, Met Our First Goal, On to Our Second!

    Yves Smith
    30 Sep 2014 | 1:37 pm
    Thanks to our loyal readers! We've already gotten nearly 200 donations in the first 24 hours (out of our fundraiser target of 1000 donors), and blew past our first goal, which was $12,700 to provide for more technology investments in the site, which will provide for a better reader experience on mobiles and tablets, and faster resolution of other site issues.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Alpha.Sources

  • Where Are My Foreign Assets When I Need Them?

    CV
    17 Sep 2014 | 8:15 am
    How do you show the challenge of the eurozone periphery in one chart? Well, it is difficult but the representation below is a good pick in my view. A structurally negative net foreign asset position is a very tough hurdle to overcome when in a currency union, saddled with poor demographics and need net external demand to boost national income. Think of the periphery as Japan and Germany without(!) the strong net foreign asset position.  These countries seem to have grown old before getting rich and without the ability to devalue in nominal terms, the outlook is not good.   …
  • The Italian Economy Remains Stuck ...

    CV
    15 Sep 2014 | 10:38 am
    Italy has the dubious honor of the being the first eurozone economy to re-enter recession after the decidedly tepid recovery since 2012. This is bad news for an economy struggling with steadily increasing government debt and no real solution on how to pay off its mounting liabilities. What is even worse is that it looks as if the economy is not about to exit its malaise anytime soon. Picture is courtesey of Pantheon Macroeconomics and has also been posted on Twitter.   
  • Weak economic data would test bonds in the periphery

    CV
    7 Aug 2014 | 1:50 am
    Volatility has engulfed the eurozone in the past few weeks, but bond markets remain a relative sea of calm. This could change quickly however, if the economic data in the periphery takes a serious turn for the worse. Given the absence of active balance sheet expansion at the ECB, Q3 PMIs have suddenly taken in critical importance   Picture is courtesey of Pantheon Macroeconomics and has also been posted on Twitter. 
  • Is the Euro Overvalued?

    CV
    16 Jul 2014 | 7:43 am
    Well, yes if you ask Mr. Draghi it is, but not if you look at fundamental long run charts. Looking at both the REER and the trade weighted index, the euro is currently bang on average. Obviously, the ECB would like a weaker currency, but the best way to reach that objective will probably be to do nothing. It is difficult to expect a weaker currency amid a cyclical recovery with strong portfolio inflows and a current account surplus.    ---  Pictures are courtesey of Pantheon Macroeconomics and have also been posted at Twitter. 
  • Confirming or Rejecting the idea of a eurozone recovery

    CV
    14 Jul 2014 | 4:42 am
    The following chart is an interesting one, depicting the sub-index from the EC consumer survey for major purchase intentions in the eurozone over the next year. Still moribund, this indicator suggests that the consumer is still very cautious in the euro area, but what if it breaks higher?  I will be watching this closely for a move higher—or a move back down into its post-crisis range—in coming months.    Picture is courtesey of Pantheon Macroeconomics, and has also been posted at Twitter.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    re: The Auditors

  • 18-Year Old Anthony Canalungo Questions Herbalife, And PwC, On Exchange Rates

    Francine
    23 Sep 2014 | 4:55 pm
    Anthony Canalungo ( @Canalungo on Twitter) is an 18 year old college student and young investor that has been following the Herbalife story since 2012. He says he’s been a follower of Benjamin Graham since the age of 15 and describes himself predominantly as a value investor. He’s a member of Leaders Investment Club and is a founding member of a non-profit in his community. Anthony recently wrote a really interesting article about Herbalife’s financials in Venezuela that was posted on a blog called Quoth The Raven. In the post, Anthony raises an interesting issue that I have…
  • Speaking Engagements/Conferences

    Francine
    18 Sep 2014 | 4:40 am
    I’m on the road visiting universities, attending select conferences and forums and speaking to groups of all kinds. If you would like me to visit your university and your accounting/audit program, please write soon to lock in fall and winter dates. Contact me at fmckenna@mckennapartners.com to schedule a presentation at your university, conference, firm or for a private briefing. Coming Up: October 2, 2014, PCAOB Standing Advisory Group, Meeting on Auditing Accounting Estimates and Fair Value Measurements, Washington DC. Attending as media. October 11, 2014, University of…
  • More On My Reuters Breakingviews Column: The Andersen Tax Name Grab

    Francine
    8 Sep 2014 | 10:56 am
    News broke on September 2 that a firm, made up of ex-Arthur Andersen tax partners and called Wealth and Tax Advisory Services LLC, bought the Andersen portion of the Arthur Andersen name from what’s left of that firm and will now call itself Andersen Tax. The news, as you would expect, garnered much media attention. It says something—but maybe not what the firm’s partners think— that so many years after the destruction of Arthur Andersen by criminal indictment—twelve years—so many people care. Every major media and trade publication as well as several blogs wrote about it.
  • Auditor Independence: Another Case of Misplaced Loyalty

    Francine
    2 Sep 2014 | 5:33 am
    I wrote a couple of weeks ago about the PwC Director, now partner, who is mixed up in PwC’s fine and sanctions for its lack of independence and objectivity at consulting client Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. PwC consulted with the bank about money laundering allegations, at the request of regulators who were looking for reassurances from PwC that the bank was now complying with the law. The New York Times article about New York Department of Financial Services Superintendent Benjamin Lawsky’s enforcement action against PwC says that “when it was time for Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi to file…
  • You’ll Never Eat Lunch… A Review of “This Town” By Mark Leibovich

    Francine
    24 Aug 2014 | 1:10 pm
    In Julia Phillips’ 2002 People magazine obituary, Joni Evans, her editor for the raucous 1991 memoir, “You’ll Never Eat Lunch In This Town Again,” says, “Where some of us glow, she burned.” Phillips, an Oscar winner at age 29 as a producer of The Sting, and the first women to do so, burned bridges for sure. But she died, at age 57 of cancer, with no regrets, according to her daughter Kate. I read Phillips’ book in 1991. The paperback is still on my shelves. I remember thinking that someday I wanted to write with the same ferociousness and the same freedom. Mark Leibovich’s…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The American Prospect

  • Tragedy, Privation and Hope: Joy Boothe's Inspiring Journey to Moral Monday

    Barry Yeoman
    30 Sep 2014 | 11:40 pm
    ©Jenny Warburg Joy Boothe (in black pants) at a sit-in outside the office North Carolina Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger in June 2014, protesting Republican education cuts. When Joy Boothe showed up at last week’s Moral Monday rally in her hometown of Burnsville, North Carolina, she was fighting both sleep- and sun-deprivation. Boothe had just driven in from Asheville, 35 miles away, where her husband was recovering from a double knee replacement. “Despite my fears of leaving my husband’s hospital room for the first time in four days,” she told the small crowd gathered in…
  • In 22 States, a Wave of New Voting Restrictions Threatens to Shift Outcomes in Tight Races

    Wendy R. Weiser
    30 Sep 2014 | 9:06 pm
    For the first time in decades, voters in nearly half the country will find it harder to cast a ballot in the upcoming elections. Voters in 22 states will face tougher rules than in the last midterms. In 15 states, 2014 is slated to be the first major election with new voting restrictions in place.  These changes are the product of a concerted push to restrict voting by legislative majorities that swept into office in 2010. They represent a sharp reversal for a country whose historical trajectory has been to expand voting rights and make the process more convenient and accessible.  Although…
  • Mitt Romney Explains the Politician's Art

    Paul Waldman
    30 Sep 2014 | 11:13 am
    Back when he was running for president, I used to joke that Mitt Romney was a political version of the T-1000 from Terminator 2—if he got close enough, he could morph himself into a copy of you, adopting your likes, your fears, your ideals and your beliefs. Except instead of doing it to kill you off, he was trying to win your vote. Ungenerous on my part? Sure. Nevertheless true? Pretty much. And now comes an interesting admission from Mitt, in a new interview with Mark Leibovich. The topic is the infamous "47 percent" remark that caused him so much grief. While Romney has gone through many…
  • Palestinian Despair Plays Into Netanyahu's Hands -- For Now

    Gershom Gorenberg
    30 Sep 2014 | 6:30 am
    (AP Photo/Richard Drew) President Mahmoud Abbas, of Palestine, addresses the 69th session of the United Nations General Assembly, at U.N. headquarters, Friday, Sept. 26, 2014. The tone was almost bureaucratic: a tired man in a suit reading from a prepared text. The man was Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas; the bureaucratic ritual he performed was that of a national leader addressing the United Nations General Assembly. The words, though, expressed an undiplomatic—a quite un-Abbas-like—fury. In his opening sentence, referring to the conflict in Gaza this summer, Abbas charged Israel…
  • In Political System Disconnected From Society's Ills, Remedies Pushed to Fringes of Public Debate

    Robert Kuttner
    29 Sep 2014 | 9:09 pm
    (Kike Calvo via AP Images) More than 100,000 people march through midtown Manhattan on Sunday, Sept. 21, 2014 as part of the People's Climate March, a worldwide mobilization calling on world leaders meeting at the UN to commit to urgent action on climate change. For half a century beginning with Franklin Roosevelt, there was a direct connection between the problems that afflicted American society and the remedies on offer from our democratic system. High unemployment? The New Deal, the World War II mobilization, and the postwar boom took care of that. Stagnant wages? With unions, growing…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

  • A Public-Service Announcement: Twitter Is Dangerous...: Live from Crows Coffee

    J. Bradford DeLong
    1 Oct 2014 | 1:14 pm
    Twitter should only be used for: links to things you think people ought to read. praise of others. laments that you have been misinterpreted, and that all nuance has been lost because of the limits of 140 characters. For example, last week: @jacobwe: New "plagiarism" charges against @FareedZakaria are silly. @jacobwe: Here's the full @FareedZakaria rap sheet. Totally off base, IMO. http://t.co/3livp8ilkl @blippoblappo: Hey Jacob, is Fareed Zakaria plagiarizing in a Slate column "silly" to you?
  • Liveblogging World War I: October 1, 2014: The Battle of Arras

    J. Bradford DeLong
    1 Oct 2014 | 4:42 am
    Battle of Arras (1914) - Wikipedia: The Tenth Army, led by General Louis Maud'huy, attacked advancing German forces on 1 October and reached Douai, where the German 6th Army under Crown Prince Rupprecht counter-attacked, as three corps of the German 1st, 2nd and 7th armies attacked further south. The French were forced to withdraw towards Arras and Lens was occupied by German forces on 4 October. Attempts to encircle Arras from the north were defeated and both sides used reinforcements to try another flanking move further north at the Battle of La Bassée.... The reciprocal flanking…
  • Over at Equitable Growth: Ebola Virus Talking Points: Wednesday Focus for October 1, 2014

    J. Bradford DeLong
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:26 pm
    Over at Equitable Growth: Lives lost from Ebola to date are tiny, even in West Africa, compared to HIV, TB, and malaria. Ebola still not (yet) the biggest public health problem in West Africa. Yes, the epidemic will spread to more countries. Ebola will not become the biggest public health problem in West Africa unless deaths reach the high seven figures--which they may: it is highly likely that deaths in the six figures are now baked in the cake. Unless the virus changes dramatically, we are almost surely safe. If you want to worry, worry that influenza or something already airborne will…
  • Noted for Your Afternoon Procrastination for September 30, 2014

    J. Bradford DeLong
    30 Sep 2014 | 12:23 pm
    Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog Afternoon Must-Read: Dan Davies What’s Really Wrong With Bank Supervision - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Afternoon Must-Read: Ryan Avent: Crises: They Let It Happen - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Afternoon Must-Read: Joe Stiglitz: Reconstructing Macroeconomic Theory to Manage Economic Policy - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Afternoon Must-Read: Daron Acemoglu et al.: Offshoring and Skill-Biased Technical Change - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Afternon Must-Read: Martin Wolf: Why Inequality Is Such a Drag on…
  • Over at Equitable Growth: Why Was Bill Gross so Certain Interest Rates Were on the Rise Back in February 2011?: Tuesday Focus for September 30, 2014

    J. Bradford DeLong
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:22 am
    Over at Equitable Growth: Joshua Brown: “Do we need to fire Pimco?”: "In February of 2011, [Bill] Gross loudly proclaimed... [that] PIMCO Total Return had taken its allocation to US Treasury bonds down to zero. As recently as the previous December, PIMCO Total Return had been carrying as much as 22 percent of its AUM in Treasurys.... Gross compounded the move by being extremely vocal about his rationale--he went so far as to call Treasury bonds a 'robbery' of investors given their ultra-low interest rates and the potential for inflation. He talked about the need for…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Calculated Risk

  • ADP: Private Employment increased 213,000 in September

    Bill McBride
    1 Oct 2014 | 5:18 am
    From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 213,000 jobs from August to September according to the August ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis....Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "Job gains remain strong and steady. The pace of job growth has been remarkably similar for the past several years. Especially encouraging most recently is the increasingly broad base nature of those gains. Nearly all industries…
  • MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease Slightly in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

    Bill McBride
    1 Oct 2014 | 4:00 am
    From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease Slightly in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications decreased 0.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, 2014. ...The Refinance Index decreased 0.3 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index remained unchanged from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 11 percent lower than the same week one year ago. ......The average…
  • Wednesday: Vehicle Sales, ISM Manufacturing, ADP Employment, Q3 Office Vacancies, Construction Spending

    Bill McBride
    30 Sep 2014 | 5:01 pm
    Wednesday will be busy! First, from the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index Registers August GainDriven by stronger same-store sales and customer traffic levels and a more optimistic outlook among restaurant operators, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) posted a solid gain in August. The RPI – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 101.9 in August, up 1.0 percent from July and its first gain in three months. In addition, the RPI stood above 100 for the…
  • Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate below 2% in August, Lowest since October 2008

    Bill McBride
    30 Sep 2014 | 1:11 pm
    Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in August to 1.99% from 2.00% in July. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.61% in August 2013, and this is the lowest level since October 2008. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.Freddie Mac has not reported for August yet.Note: These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".Click on graph for larger imageThe Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.62 percentage points over the last year, and at that…
  • House Prices: Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio decline in July

    Bill McBride
    30 Sep 2014 | 10:44 am
    I started 2014 expecting a slowdown in year-over-year (YoY) prices as "For Sale" inventory increases, and the price slowdown is very obvious! The Case-Shiller Composite 20 index was up 6.7% YoY in July; the smallest YoY increase since November 2012 (the National index was up 5.6%, also the slowest YoY increase since November 2012.I expect YoY prices to slow further over the next several months.It is also important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted).  Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and others report nominal house prices.  As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Crooked Timber

  • Medicaid Expansion Lets Convicts Rob the Elderly and Vulnerable of Health Care

    John Quiggin
    30 Sep 2014 | 11:51 pm
    Since we’re on the topic of appalling and bizarre things said by rightwingers, here’s my entry, from this morning’s inbox, with the headline above. It’s from the Foundation for Government Accountability, a Florida thinktank closely linked to ALEC (it also has some overlap with Cato and the State Policy Network). The “argument” is that the expansion gives health care to poor people “many of whom (35 percent) with a record of run-ins with the criminal justice system”. This is illustrated with a “light-hearted” YouTube cartoon of…
  • The Personhood Dodge

    John Holbo
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:06 pm
    Crooked Timber seems to be suffering from a deficit of posts. I blame excess of virtue on my part. I was going to post about that Kevin Williamson piece that has set everyone off. I noticed it before it was a thing! And now it’s gone viral. And he’s followed up with a Twitter thing about hanging women who get abortions. Lovely. Here’s the thing. 1) He’s trolling. 2) On or about Monday afternoon I realized this specific style of trolling bothers me a bit less than it did a couple years back. Possible explanations: 1) I’ve grown old and cold and my youthful…
  • Sunday photoblogging: Boat, Bristol floating harbour

    Chris Bertram
    28 Sep 2014 | 2:25 am
  • Occupy Central: Civil disobedience in Hong Kong

    Ingrid Robeyns
    26 Sep 2014 | 11:33 pm
    Important developments in Hong Kong, where students and citizens are protesting to get more democratic reforms. According to various internet reports (various posts at the BBC-website, Hufftington, Bloomberg), college and university students went on strike last Monday to protest Beijing’s decision to not allow open nominations for candidates for the 2017 elections in which the leader of Hong Kong would get elected. Protesters are worried that the closed nominations will mainly draw candidates who follow the Beijing line. From the perspective of an outsider, this seems like a textbook…
  • Copyrights and Property Wrongs

    Corey Robin
    26 Sep 2014 | 9:04 pm
    Jeffrey Toobin has a fascinating piece in this week’s New Yorker on the effort of individuals to get information about themselves or their loved ones deleted from the internet. Toobin’s set piece is a chilling story of the family of Nikki Catsouras, who was decapitated in a car accident in California. The images of the accident were so ghastly that the coroner wouldn’t allow Catsouras’s parents to see the body. Two employees of the California Highway Patrol, however, circulated photographs of the body to friends. Like oil from a spill, the photos spread across the…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Dealbreaker

  • Opening Bell: 10.01.14

    Dealbreaker
    1 Oct 2014 | 4:00 am
    Fannie, Freddie Investors Lose Suits Over Lost Dividends (Bloomberg) The lawsuits, among the first of almost 20 related cases to be decided, were filed by investors including Bruce Berkowitz, the head of Fairholme Capital Management LLC, who was named Morningstar Inc.’s domestic stock manager of the decade for the 2000s, and billionaire hedge-fund manager Richard… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.
  • Write-Offs: 09.30.14

    Dealbreaker
    30 Sep 2014 | 4:39 pm
    $$$ How Not To Regulate [The Atlantic] $$$ Ex-Pimco Money Manager Accused Firm of Price Manipulation [Bloomberg] $$$ Dimon Pep Talk Consoles Eric Cantor on Way to Wall Street [Bloomberg] $$$ Prison bankers cash in on captive customers [Public Integrity] $$$ Kim Jong Un hospitalized with two broken ankles, reportedly from wearing heels and being… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.
  • Careful Grooming = Respectability For Bitcoin

    Jon Shazar
    30 Sep 2014 | 1:40 pm
    A couple of Swiss Adonises have shed their tin-foil hats to reveal perfectly-coifed hair (or no hair at all, which is a kind of Teutonic perfection in and of itself). This, combined with their robot-like Swissness, apparently means that we can all stop clamoring for francs and start filling out instawallets, according to Bloomberg. They… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: 26 year olds, Brian Armstrong, Coinbase, Fred Ehrsam, get clean for bitcoin!, Vulcans
  • SEC Charges Guy With Being Very Bad Roommate

    Bess Levin
    30 Sep 2014 | 1:38 pm
    10. Leaves dishes in the sink. 9. Fills DVR with Diners, Drive Ins and Dives and “Save All Episodes” option 8. Brings back strange men he/she met on the corner 5 minutes earlier. 7. Is late with the rent. 6. Eats your food. 5. Leaves Post-it notes on the bathroom mirror that read “Should I… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: diet shakes, Herbalife, insider-trading, Pershing Square, roommates
  • Benjamin Lawsky Shows The Limeys How It’s Done

    Jon Shazar
    30 Sep 2014 | 12:30 pm
    Let a financial wrongdoer off scot-free? That wouldn’t be good for New York Financial Services Superintendent Benjamin Lawsky’s future political career, and so it is not how New York Financial Services Superintendent Benjamin Lawsky operates. Now, unlike certain lazy, weak-willed, tea-drinking regulators, Benjamin Lawsky can’t put anyone in jail. But that doesn’t mean he’s going… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: Benjamin Lawsky, Commerzbank, HEADS WILL ROLL (if German law allows), tough guys
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Econbrowser

  • A Fiscal Tale of Two States: Minnesota vs. Wisconsin

    Menzie Chinn
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:17 am
    The two neighboring states of Wisconsin and Minnesota share a similar economic structure and size; and yet their fortunes have diverged over the past three years. One correlate of Wisconsin’s growth deficit is state and local government spending. First, let’s document Wisconsin’s lagging performance along three dimensions — gross state product, a high frequency indicator of economic activity from the Philadelphia Fed, and nonfarm payroll employment. Figure 1: Minnesota-Wisconsin log gross state product cumulative growth differential (3 quarter centered moving average),…
  • Thank Goodness Wisconsin Turned Down High Speed Rail!

    Menzie Chinn
    26 Sep 2014 | 2:35 pm
    From “Fast trains, supply networks, and firm performance” in VoxEU: We find that sales and measured productivity rose substantially for firms near the new (high speed rail) stations after the opening. Firms in industries with greater purchased input shares outperformed firms in industries with lower purchased input shares. So Wisconsin dodged the fate of having higher firm productivity. The report is authored by Bernard, Moxnes, and Saito.
  • The Rising Dollar and Macroeconomic and Policy Prospects

    Menzie Chinn
    26 Sep 2014 | 12:03 pm
    From Buoyant Dollar Recovers Its Luster, Underlining Rebound in U.S. Economy in today’s NY Times: The United States dollar, after one of its most prolonged weak spells ever, has now re-emerged as the preferred currency for global investors. Across trading desks in New York, London and elsewhere, analysts are rushing to raise their dollar forecasts based on the resurgence in the American economy. This confidence is buttressed by today’s third release of the 2014Q2 GDP report, which revised upward q/q growth to 4.6% (SAAR). [1] It’s interesting to note where analysts locate…
  • Interpreting the Yield Curve: Some Pictures

    Menzie Chinn
    23 Sep 2014 | 11:50 am
    Recently Jim highlighted the odd behavior of the various Treasury term premia. Here are some additional thoughts. First, from “Debt market goes off script” in the WSJ: Yields on short-term U.S. Treasury debt maturing in two to five years hit the highest level since 2011, reflecting an investor scramble to place bets on an expected Federal Reserve rate increase as soon as next spring. … At the same time, yields on government debt maturing in 10 or more years have risen only modestly this week and remain well below their levels at the start of 2014, a year that many analysts…
  • Economic Portents – Kansas

    Menzie Chinn
    22 Sep 2014 | 9:58 pm
    Here are some economic indicators for Kansas; they indicate rising GDP but stalling real personal income (through 2014Q1), stagnant employment growth, with manufacturing employment deviating from national trends. Figure 1: Nominal Gross State Product (blue) and personal income (red). NBER recession dates shaded gray; dashed lines at Brownback administration and beginning of tax cuts. Source: BEA, and BEA via FRED. Figure 2: Real Gross State Product (blue) and real personal income (red). Real personal income deflated using Chained CPI. NBER recession dates shaded gray; dashed lines at…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    EconLog: Library of Economics and Liberty

  • The Ultimate Incivility

    Bryan Caplan
    1 Oct 2014 | 12:05 am
    (October 1, 2014 12:05 AM, by Bryan Caplan) I've long believed that human beings are overly touchy.  Many actively look for excuses to take offense.  This excess negativity isn't just unpleasant.  Due to the scarcity of attention and patience, unreasonable offense frequently crowds out reasonable offense.  It's no... (4 COMMENTS)
  • Flying blind

    Scott Sumner
    30 Sep 2014 | 11:13 am
    (September 30, 2014 11:13 AM, by Scott Sumner) There is a sort of zero sum aspect to exchange rates. Any change in exchange rates means one currency is weaker and one is stronger, relative to the other. But exchange rates tell us nothing about whether currencies are weaker... (8 COMMENTS)
  • There's No Such Thing as a Free Bomb: A Brilliant Idea from Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal

    Art Carden
    30 Sep 2014 | 5:45 am
    (September 30, 2014 05:45 AM, by Art Carden) Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal has joined The Oatmeal, XKCD, and Botched Spot as one of my favorite comics. This particular installment was especially brilliant. It proposes a browser plug-in that makes the opportunity cost of military hardware explicit. The night... (9 COMMENTS)
  • Time Inconsistency in Tax Policy: A Colombian Case Study

    David Henderson
    30 Sep 2014 | 2:41 am
    (September 30, 2014 02:41 AM, by David Henderson) This discussion is related to the time inconsistency of optimal policy, which occurs when the government cannot implement an optimal tax policy because the stated policy is inconsistent with the government's incentives over time. Consider a proposal made by the... (2 COMMENTS)
  • Pious Thinking

    Bryan Caplan
    30 Sep 2014 | 12:50 am
    (September 30, 2014 12:50 AM, by Bryan Caplan) I often argue that popular ideas are deeply mistaken.  I attacked everything from nationalism and militarism to Tiger Parenting and labor market regulation.  There's one utterly corrupt outlook, though, that I almost never bother to criticize.  As soon as I... (7 COMMENTS)
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Economist's View

  • Links for 10-01-14

    Mark Thoma
    1 Oct 2014 | 12:03 am
    Now Is a Good Time to Invest in Infrastructure - iMFdirect Helicopter money: Today’s best policy option - vox Lawrence Summers Says Treasury Undermined Fed - NYTimes.com Explaining the Hegemony of New Classical Economics - Uneasy Money The Pimco Perplex - Paul Krugman Re-discovering the Phillips curve - vox The deficit: blame foreigners - Chris Dillow Deindustrialization Redeploys Workers to Service Sector - Sposi and Grossman Do Unemployment Benefits Expirations Explain Job Openings? - Liberty Street Government Debt Management at the Zero Lower Bound - Jerome Powell Apple set to lose…
  • Highest Ranked, but It's Not Good News

    Mark Thoma
    30 Sep 2014 | 11:50 am
    Martin Wolf, in "Why inequality is such a drag on economies": ...in 2012, says the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the US ranked highest among the high-income countries in the share of relatively low-paying jobs. ...
  • 'Why Have Policymakers Abandoned the Working Class?'

    Mark Thoma
    30 Sep 2014 | 7:28 am
    I have a new column: Why Have Policymakers Abandoned the Working Class?, by Mark Thoma: The risks associated with a negative economic shock can vary widely depending on the wealth of a household. Wealthy households can, of course, absorb a shock much easier than poorer households. Thus, it’s important to think about how economic downturns impact various groups within the economy, and how policy can be used to offset the problems experienced by the most vulnerable among us. When thinking about the effects of an increase in the Fed’s target interest rate, for example, it’s important to…
  • 'The Silver Lining in Falling College Enrollment'

    Mark Thoma
    30 Sep 2014 | 7:28 am
    At MoneyWatch: The silver lining in falling college enrollment, by Mark Thoma: College enrollment "declined by close to half a million (463,000) between 2012 and 2013, marking the second year in a row that a drop of this magnitude has occurred," according to a report from the Census Bureau. And it's the largest two-year drop since Census began collecting enrollment data in 1966. Notably, the decline was concentrated in two-year colleges. It is, of course, desirable to have a more educated population, particularly in an era of globalization and technological change that makes it…
  • Links for 9-30-14

    Mark Thoma
    30 Sep 2014 | 12:06 am
    Revisiting the Lehman Brothers Bailout That Never Was - NYTimes.com Offshoring and skill-biased technical change - vox Americans work long and at strange times - vox Draghi the Euro Breaker? - Gloomy European Economist Modelling sticky prices and monetary shocks - vox Recessions result in lower birth rates in the long run - EurekAlert Options-Based Expectations of Future Policy Rates - FRBSF Nobody Could Have Predicted, Bill Gross Edition - Paul Krugman Is It Time? A Case for Patience on Monetary Policy - Charles Evans A Mind-Blowing Optimal Prediction Result - No Hesitations Why and how we…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    EconTalk

  • Continuing Conversation... Martha Nussbaum on Creating Capabilities and GDP

    Amy Willis
    30 Sep 2014 | 9:15 am
    This week's episode was a conversation with University of Chicago philosopher Martha Nussbaum. She and EconTalk host Russ Roberts discussed her work on the capabilities approach, the limits of GDP, stoicism, and the value of philosophy. We'd like to hear your reaction to their conversation. As always, our goal is to broaden the conversation, so share the results with us, using the prompts below. We love to hear from you. Check Your Knowledge: 1. What is the "capabilities approach," according to Nussbaum, and how would it compare (favorably or not) to GDP as a measure of well-being? 2. About…
  • Martha Nussbaum on Creating Capabilities and GDP

    Russell Roberts
    29 Sep 2014 | 3:30 am
    Martha Nussbaum of the University of Chicago and author of Creating Capabilities talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about an alternative to GDP for measuring economic performance at the national level. She is a proponent of the capabilities approach that emphasizes how easily individuals can acquire skills and use them, as well as the capability to live long and enjoy life. Nussbaum argues that government policy should focus on creating capabilities rather than allowing them to emerge through individual choices and civil society. Play Time: 1:01:15 How do I listen to a podcast? Download…
  • Continuing Conversation... Thomas Piketty on Inequality and Capital in the 21st Century

    Amy Willis
    24 Sep 2014 | 6:36 am
    This week, EconTalk host Russ Roberts talked with Thomas Piketty, author of the controversial and best-selling tome, Capital in the 21st Century. As always, we'd like to hear your thoughts on this episode. Use the prompts below and share in the comments section, or use them to prompt discussion offline. Either way, we know you have something to say, and we love to hear from you. Check Your Knowledge: 1. Piketty asserts that the theory of marginal productivity of labor is naive. What does he mean by this, and to what extent do you agree? 2. Piketty calls his now famous identity, r > g, the…
  • Afterthoughts on Piketty

    Russ Roberts
    24 Sep 2014 | 6:05 am
    Here are my thoughts on the Piketty episode. This was a lot of fun and very challenging. It's a dense book and it isn't easy to talk about data-rich work when you only have audio. We obviously could have gone a lot longer than an hour. One of the issues that came up was the rate of growth of income of the top 1%. My point was that as technology and globalization increase, the amount of money the most talented entrepreneurs and athletes will capture increases. So Messi makes more than Pele, LeBron makes more than Magic. And Sergey Brin makes more than--I don't know--pick a technologically…
  • Thomas Piketty on Inequality and Capital in the 21st Century

    Russell Roberts
    22 Sep 2014 | 3:30 am
    Thomas Piketty of the Paris School of Economics and author of Capital in the Twenty-First Century talks to Econtalk host Russ Roberts about the book. The conversation covers some of the key empirical findings of the book along with a discussion of their significance. Play Time: 1:08:43 How do I listen to a podcast? Download Size:31.5 MB Right-click or Option-click, and select "Save Link/Target As MP3. Readings and Links related to this podcast episode Related Readings HIDE READINGS About this week's guest: Thomas Piketty's C.V. About ideas and people mentioned in this podcast episode:…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Environmental Economics

  • My guess is the probability this will change a denier's opinion is 0.00001%*

    Tim Haab
    30 Sep 2014 | 5:56 am
    Scientists announced Monday that human-caused climate change contributed to and/or amplified nine of 2013's most extreme weather events, making one of the most definitive statements yet on the direct link between individual weather extremes and human-induced climate change. In a new report released in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) and organized by the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 20 different groups of scientists studied how 16 extreme weather events came to fruition in 2013. In their analyses, the different groups conducted independent…
  • There's nothing funny about the AER

    John Whitehead
    29 Sep 2014 | 5:36 am
    The Chronicle has an article today on the lack of humor in scholarly journals: Stephen Heard once wrote a paper about how pollen spreads among the flowers of a certain endangered plant. In it he speculated that the wind might play a role by shaking loose the pollen. To support his point, he cited "Hall et al., 1957"—a reference to the songwriters of the Jerry Lee Lewis hit "Whole Lotta Shakin’ Goin’ On." But a reviewer nixed Heard’s little joke. "Although I appreciated the levity of the reference," he wrote, "I think it is not appropriate for a…
  • "President’s Drive for Carbon Pricing Fails to Win at Home"

    John Whitehead
    28 Sep 2014 | 6:35 am
    We heart carbon pricing, wish everyone did: President Obama stood in the chamber of the United Nations General Assembly last week and urged the world to follow his example and fight global warming. But a major new declaration calling for a global price on carbon — signed by 74 countries and more than 1,000 businesses and investors — is missing a key signatory: the United States. The declaration, released by the World Bank the day before Mr. Obama’s speech at the United Nations Climate Summit, has been signed by China, Shell, Dow Chemical and Coca-Cola. It calls on all nations to enact…
  • While I'm busy, enjoy the following PSA from Jon Stewart

    Tim Haab
    25 Sep 2014 | 10:19 am
    I'm stuck in Adminiland (trust me it's a real place and a good excuse for my sparsity in posting lately).  Besides, sometimes Jon Stewart just says it better...enjoy if you have 10 minutes. The Daily ShowGet More: Daily Show Full Episodes,Indecision Political Humor,The Daily Show on Facebook
  • Local foodies can't park

    John Whitehead
    25 Sep 2014 | 8:11 am
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    footnoted*

  • Comment letter ahead of BofA’s $8M Fine

    Murti Bhattiprolu
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:00 am
    Yesterday, the SEC announced a $7.65m fine for Bank of America Corp. related to internal controls deficiencies and regulatory capital misstatements related to complex securities it bought as part of its acquisition of Merrill Lynch in 2009. What’s surprising is that a comment letter that was made public earlier this month previewed this. In that letter, the SEC said it was concerned with the company’s disclosure about revisions to regulatory capital amounts and ratios in its first-quarter report, which we flagged for footnotedPro subscribers on May 1. We thought it was…
  • An unusually special award at Sigma-Aldrich

    Michelle Leder
    26 Sep 2014 | 6:02 am
    Earlier this week, there was big news in big-pharma when the German pharmaceutical giant Merck KGaA announced plans to buy Sigma-Aldrich Corp. for $17 billion. The $140 a share price represented a 37% premium to Sigma-Aldrich’s closing price. Since that announcement on Monday, Sigma-Aldrich has filed 16 separate documents with the SEC, or somewhere north of 400 pages — from the transcript of the post-announcement call to the Powerpoint presentation to something called employee talking points, which was presumably designed by HR-types to reassure employees that they still have a…
  • Evertec execs line up to enjoy Puerto Rican tax holiday

    Michelle Leder
    18 Sep 2014 | 5:59 am
    You’ve probably heard (or at least read) about the new law in Puerto Rico. Just two weeks ago, the New York Times noted that former “hedge fund honcho” — their words, not ours — Alex Lemond had decamped there to take advantage of a change in the tax code that benefits wealthy newcomers to the island. A more recent development — known by its formal name of Act 77, which was signed into law at the beginning of July — provides additional benefits to income generated from options. (This memo from Deloitte provides a good overview of what’s otherwise…
  • EZCorp’s Doozy $25K/Mo Housing Perk For Chairman

    Murti Bhattiprolu
    28 Aug 2014 | 11:59 am
    Two weeks ago, we wrote about EZCorp Inc. and its generous payouts to its executives — something we’ve coveredextensively in the past — so much so that it has become something of a Frequent Flyer here at footnoted. The pixels on that post had barely set when tthe operator of pawnshops filed another doozy of a filing. The company, which announced the appointment of Stuart Grimshaw, the CEO of Australian financial firm Queensland Ltd., as its executive chairman on Aug. 13 waited until the following day to include the basket full of goodies it was offering Grimshaw to take the…
  • From $1 to $675K for new LA Times chief!

    Michelle Leder
    18 Aug 2014 | 7:19 am
    There’s been lots written over the past few days about Austin Beutner, who was named publisher and CEO of the Los Angeles Times last week. In the press release, the newspaper described Beutner as an “entrepreneur, philanthropist and public servant”. The press release (and most of the subsequent press coverage including this story in the very newspaper that Beutner will be running)  noted how he famously accepted a mere $1 salary when he was named First Deputy Mayor of Los Angeles in January 2010. Given all of that Michelle, being relatively new to Los Angeles, took more…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    HBR Blog Network - Harvard Business Review » Umair Haque

  • Apple Is More Like a Band than a Company

    Umair Haque
    25 Sep 2014 | 5:00 am
    You’d think by now more companies would have learned. The tech industry still churns out beige boxes. The fashion industry, misshaped sack-shaped objects it calls “clothing” that make adult humans look suspiciously like overgrown toddlers. The food industry…who knows what’s really in the preservative-flavored genetically mutated stuff that’s labeled “food”? All the endless stuff the developed world is drowning in — that we’re melting down the planet to produce — is, for the most part, as unexciting as it is unoriginal as it is uninspired as it is…
  • Our Economic Malaise Is Fueling Political Extremism

    Umair Haque
    5 Jun 2014 | 12:00 pm
    The head of the fourth biggest and fastest rising political party in the world’s second most powerful economy is a racist. An aide to the Prime Minister of one of the world’s most promising societies is caught on camera kicking a protestor to the ground. The world’s largest democracy proudly elects a man who rode a wave of religious extremism. The head of yet another is a man whose calls for ethnic purity are becoming more strident. And that’s leaving out the rise of extremist parties in Greece, the U.S., France, and elsewhere. What’s going on here? Here’s my…
  • Can You Be Too Rich?

    Umair Haque
    12 May 2014 | 6:00 am
    Is there such a thing as too rich? Like most reasonable people, I agree whole-heartedly that people who accomplish greater, worthier, nobler things should be rewarded more than those who don’t. I’m not the World’s Last Communist, shaking his fist atop Karl Marx’s grave at the very idea of riches. So. Perhaps I’ve asked an absurd question. Perhaps there’s no such thing as too rich — anywhere, ever. But try this thought experiment: Imagine that there’s a single person in the economy who is so rich he’s worth what everyone else is, combined. If there were such a person, he’d…
  • 5 Dirty Secrets About the U.S. Economy

    Umair Haque
    2 May 2014 | 9:00 am
    If there’s one thing I hate these days, it’s discussing the U.S. economy. Will raising wages by seventeen cents destroy humanity? Will edible deodorant add 0.000007 percent to GDP? If we resurrected giant man-eating dinosaurs, could we use them to keep our warehouse pickers in line? Isn’t it awesome when the Dow hits a record high (but everything else flatlines or shrinks)? I feel like I’m listening to a debate on the noble merits of true love between the Real Housewives and a bunch of broseph PUAs. By my count, there are five dirty secrets about the economy we’re not supposed to…
  • The Great Leap Generation F Needs to Make

    Umair Haque
    24 Jan 2014 | 5:00 am
    Imagine a towering, sheer cliff. Imagine a deep canyon below, full of ruined cities. Now imagine, on the canyon’s other side, a bountiful plain, rippling in the breeze, stretching into the sunset. Welcome to the economy of the twenty-first century. For young people today, the economy basically feels something like the portrait above, and they’re the ones stuck at the bottom of the ravine. Consider the following: 1. The global economy is broken. I’ve suggested for many years that we are living through a zombieconomy – where the economy seems to stagger forward in a lifelike fashion,…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Free exchange

  • Economic pain, caused by Ukraine

    C.W. | LONDON
    30 Sep 2014 | 7:53 am
    TODAY Russia submitted its budget to the Duma, the lower house of the parliament. After three rounds of discussions, Vladimir Putin, the president, will sign it into law. The budget shows how much trouble the Russian economy is in—and how unwilling the government is to face up to reality. It’s an austere affair: 700 billion roubles ($17.8 billion) of previous spending plans have been axed. New taxes on tobacco and alcohol will probably be imposed. These measures are partly to do with Russia’s poor economic growth, which has crimped tax revenues. The World Bank has cut its forecast…
  • Are more jobs low-paying?

    H.C. | LONDON
    30 Sep 2014 | 6:53 am
    THERE has been a widespread media narrative recently which says that the British labour market recovery has relied on low-paying jobs. We highlighted this trend, and its implications for tax revenues, in the print edition two weeks ago. However, the Independent's John Rentoul claims we have all got it wrong:For all the fuss about how the British labour market increasingly depends on low-paid jobs, the figures tell a different story…There has been no change in the proportion of workers on low pay for the past two decadesRentoul uses a chart from a Resolution Foundation report showing that…
  • They let it happen

    R.A. | LONDON
    29 Sep 2014 | 11:44 pm
    THE argument that American officials lacked the capability or authority to save Lehman Brothers—and, potentially, to spare the world the most wrenching financial crisis since the 1930s—never really withstood close scrutiny. In 2012, I wrote:There was no reason that Lehman had to fail. It had tons of assets on its books; it just happened that they were of such dubious value that no one trusted in the bank's solvency. But there were other options. The Fed could have said (as it did to a much greater extent after Lehman fell) that it would take Lehman's toxic crud as collateral and extend it…
  • The 'bond king' departs

    Economist.com
    29 Sep 2014 | 1:16 pm
    THIS week: Bill Gross leaves PIMCO, trade deals in trouble and the rising US dollar 
  • Why is the Fed planning to fail?

    R.A. | LONDON
    29 Sep 2014 | 8:01 am
    THE members of the Federal Open Market Committee are not overly fond of being stuck at the zero lower bound (ZLB). Since December of 2008, the Fed's preferred policy lever, the federal funds rate, has rested between 0% and 0.25%: effectively the lowest possible level, since the zero return on cash means that the central bank could not effectively deploy negative interest rates. Policy-making since then has been a monetary mess. Whether justified in their view or not, Fed members consider unconventional policy action, like asset purchases or promises to leave interest rates low for long…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Greg Mankiw's Blog

  • The IMF on Infrastructure

    Greg Mankiw
    1 Oct 2014 | 4:58 am
    The IMF endorses the free-lunch view of infrastructure spending. That is, an IMF study suggests that the expansionary effects are sufficiently large that debt-financed infrastructure spending could reduce the debt-GDP ratio over time.  Certainly this outcome is theoretically possible (just like self-financing tax cuts), but you can count me as skeptical about how often it will occur in practice (just like self-financing tax cuts).  The human tendency for wishful thinking and the desire to avoid hard tradeoffs are so common that it is dangerous for a…
  • Predicting the Nobel

    Greg Mankiw
    26 Sep 2014 | 4:14 am
    Science Watch offers their choices.
  • Monetary Policy Rules

    Greg Mankiw
    25 Sep 2014 | 3:49 am
    Here is a website that gives up-to-date graphs of several policy rules.
  • Grading in Ec 10

    Greg Mankiw
    24 Sep 2014 | 3:16 am
    An instructor in introductory economics asks:I have a question that may be of interest to the students and faculty who read your blog. In searching the archives of your blog, I did not see a blog post on the following: How do you assess and evaluate those students? I have a colleague who administers only one assessment - a final. Most of the rest of my department uses a variety of activities, assessments and evaluations - homework sets, reading quizzes, writing, midterm and final. Here is the weighting we use to grade each semester in ec 10 at Harvard: 40…
  • Correlation is not causation

    Greg Mankiw
    21 Sep 2014 | 5:14 am
    Fun examples.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Hedge fund

  • Best hedge fund

    Veryan Allen
    26 Sep 2014 | 11:08 am
    Recently I visited the world's best hedge fund. Client performance needs mean I must do due diligence at all top SKILL BASED managers. I define "top" by risk adjusted returns not current AUM and avoid asset class dependent funds. Too risky and unsuitable for institutions and individuals. Steep losses and high volatility are a disgrace but that's what market "averages" deliver every few years.YOUR money is too important to be risked on any asset class. I prefer talent that delivers INDEPENDENTLY of market direction. Though rare, skill can be detected with thorough analysis. For asset classes,…
  • Warren Buffett alpha

    Veryan Allen
    18 Sep 2014 | 4:08 pm
    Warren Buffett focuses on absolute return investing and leverage, arbitrage, derivatives, event-driven, activist, distressed, opportunistic and global macro strategies have driven most of his returns since inception. Too many investors avoid the best managers. If Berkshire Hathaway isn't a hedge fund then there are no hedge funds. Why risk YOUR MONEY on an "average"?Where do you find great managers? It is possible to identify FUTURE winners in advance. George Soros and Warren Buffett's skills were clear more than 40 years ago so there was plenty of time to invest. Their successful…
  • Hedge fund alpha

    Veryan Allen
    16 Sep 2014 | 8:14 am
    Alpha is so rare that only the most dedicated and talented can find it. Top portfolio managers need a minimum 50,000 hours to BECOME skilled and work 100 hour weeks to maintain their competence. Such people do NOT run traditional funds dependent on some high risk index. They score 10/10 on The Hedge Fund Test. How will you do?1) Risk management:A) A googol of fund managers are asked to choose a whole number between zero and a googol. They are each told they will get to manage USD 1 googol at full fees for googol year lockup if the number they choose is half the arithmetic mean of the…
  • CTA

    Veryan Allen
    3 Sep 2014 | 4:08 pm
    Black box? Here's a proprietary equation that has served clients well over many years of outperformance investing in skill strategies. Good manager + bad period = buying opportunity. Sadly most investors do the opposite so their dollar weighted returns are poor compared to funds' time weighted returns. I've increased allocations to QUALITY managers in EXPECTED drawdowns many times. A great alpha driver is getting in when dumb money is redeeming. Some models actually do work and good managers are rare.The world goes pear-shaped very quickly. Trends end quickly. Do the opposite of the dumb…
  • 2 and 20

    Veryan Allen
    2 Sep 2014 | 3:06 am
    2 and 20? A friend just ate at a top restaurant. Was she was ripped off? Nearby was a more famous eatery crowded with clients. Food there cost a few dollars compared to hundreds where she ate. I asked about her irrational decision avoiding "cheaper" products but she said while aware of "lower" fees, differences in SKILL, EXPERIENCE and VALUE were clear between 3 star Michelin chefs and McDonalds.Obey the passive zealots. Bogle is right. Please DON'T invest in hedge funds. Bet your wealth on long only lists and enjoy the vicious volatility and 50% drawdowns. Hard work, thorough analysis…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up

  • Berkshire Hathaway: Wholesaler of Death?

    Jeff Matthews
    5 Sep 2014 | 1:41 pm
     Now that we have your attention with that admittedly provocative title, we are going to kill two birds with one stone here. Bird One is the fact that we haven’t posted anything in two months, mainly because whatever odd silliness visible in the darker corners of Wall Street seems irrelevant in a world where Vladimir Putin can invade his neighbors, take territory and shoot passenger planes from the sky while the civilized world sputters about such things not being fit for 21stCentury-type behavior before moving onto actual 21st Century-type behavior like Tweeting about…
  • Okay FINRA, Who Had The Call From The FHFA?

    Jeff Matthews
    11 Jul 2014 | 6:38 am
     Last night at 4:05 PM E.S.T. the news hit Bloomberg that the Federal Housing Financing Agency was proposing an astoundingly, stupidly strict set of standards for private mortgage insurers who do business with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the net effect of which would be to reduce the availability of credit for home buyers at the very time that credit is needed to keep our economic recovery going. We are not here to explain the issue, only to point out to FINRA, the self-policing body in charge of sniffing out strange behavior in the public markets, the enormous--nay,…
  • Life in Wartime, or, One More Reason Why Companies Leave America

    Jeff Matthews
    17 Jun 2014 | 11:47 am
     These are the headlines on my Bloomberg for Annie's, the organic mac and cheese maker whose shares have fallen from unsustainable heights as the difficulties of running a public company while trying to meet the impatient quarterly targets of impatient quarterly-minded investors finally overcame the euphoria of a company that seemed to be in the right place at the right time. And this is one more reason why companies are leaving America. For the record, I like the new CFO (who helped flag the filing deficiencies) and would not bet against the company mending its ways. Nor…
  • Berkshire Hathaway: Beyond Buffett

    Jeff Matthews
    24 May 2014 | 11:00 am
    If this is failure, I want more of it.”—Charlie Munger “The only succession for Ajit Jain is reincarnation.”—Warren BuffettOmaha, Nebraska, May 3, 2014.It’s one year later, and I’m driving in pre-dawn darkness through downtown Omaha to the 2014 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, which, up until about a week ago, was looking like another cakewalk for Warren Buffett. After all, Berkshire’s net worth increased 18% in 2013, representing a staggering $34 billion jump in value.  And while, as some wet-blanket observers have pointed out, Berkshire’s 18% gain paled in…
  • The Score This Quarter: Citigroup 64, JP Morgan 56...IBM 19.

    Jeff Matthews
    27 Apr 2014 | 11:55 am
     Well IBM’s first quarter results are in, and they’re—well, they’re about what we’ve come to expect from a high-cost, brand name, big-iron tech company in a world moving to a low-cost, generic, small-iron model: revenues down, margins down, earnings down, cash flow down, service bookings way down, share buybacks up and layoffs soaring. Remarkably, though, one number—IBM’s earnings-per-share—came in exactly in line with what the company had predicted some 90 days ago, and that’s what Wall Street’s Finest really cared about, because it meant their spreadsheets were…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

  • Draghi Pressures ECB to Buy "Junk-Rated" Loan Bundles of Greece and Cyprus

    30 Sep 2014 | 7:00 pm
    On September 4, ECB President pulled out a financial bazooka including a pledge to build up the ECB's balance sheet by another €1 trillion.Draghi confirmed the asset purchases would "include the real estate, the RMBS, real estate ABS. It would also include a fairly wide range of ABS containing loans to the real economy," but only "the senior tranches, and the mezzanine tranches only if there is a guarantee."Now, just three weeks later, he wants to buy outright junk, presumably without guarantees.Please consider Mario Draghi pushes for ECB to accept Greek and Cypriot ‘junk’ loan bundles.
  • "Come Hell or High Water" Promise Morphs Into "Infinity and Beyond"

    30 Sep 2014 | 2:13 pm
    In 2010, vice-president Joe Biden publicly vowed the US would be “totally out” of Afghanistan “come hell or high water, by 2014.”In a few short months, 2014 will be gone. Are US troops out of Afghanistan? Nope. Iraq? Nope. Instead, we have troops in Syria.Political PromisesPolitical promises should never be believed.Today the US signed an extension allowing US forces to remain in Afghanistan until "at least" 2024.At Least Until 2024 The Guardian reports a new Afghanistan pact means America's Longest War Will Last Until at Least 2024. The longest war in American history will last at…
  • Reader Question on a Credit-Based Society: Can Interest Ever Be Repaid?

    30 Sep 2014 | 10:35 am
    Reader Mike wonders how interest can ever be repaid in a credit-based economy. Hi Mish,I wonder if you would be able to comment on this from Bill Gross in For Wonks Only:"A credit-based financial economy (as opposed to pure cash) depends on an ever-expanding outstanding level of credit for its survival. Without additional credit, interest on previously issued liabilities cannot be paid absent the sale of existing assets, which in turn would lead to a vicious cycle of debt deflation, recession and ultimately depression.Put simply, if credit needs to expand at 4.5% per year, then the private…
  • Schoolgirls Aged 14-16 Leave France, UK, Germany for Syria to Join ISIS Jihad

    29 Sep 2014 | 7:12 pm
    As many as 63 seriously misguided teenaged girls from France, 40 from Germany, and 50 in the UK have left their countries to join ISIS in Syria. The Guardian has a fascinating report on Schoolgirl jihadis: the female Islamists leaving home to join Isis fighters. Hundreds of young women and girls are leaving their homes in western countries to join Islamic fighters in the Middle East, causing increasing concern among counter-terrorism investigators.Girls as young as 14 or 15 are travelling mainly to Syria to marry jihadis, bear their children and join communities of fighters, with a small…
  • US Bombed Wrong Refineries in Syria; Iran Seeks to Stop Oil Price Slide; Sanctions Won't Impede Arctic Drilling

    29 Sep 2014 | 12:55 pm
    US Bombed Wrong Refineries in SyriaOil is in the news in many countries in many ways. Let's take a look starting with a couple of paragraphs buried in the Financial Times report Barack Obama Admits US Underestimated Isis. Allied aircraft on Sunday struck three makeshift oil refineries in an area controlled by Isis in an expansion of attacks intended to damage the militant Islamist group’s financial infrastructure.Oil has proved crucial to financing Isis’s operations, netting several million dollars a day. But the observatory said the refineries struck early on Sunday, in and around Raqqa,…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Overcoming Bias

  • Open Thread

    Robin Hanson
    1 Oct 2014 | 5:45 am
    This is our monthly place to discuss related topics that have not appeared in recent posts.
  • Pretty Smart Healthy Privilege

    Robin Hanson
    26 Sep 2014 | 6:35 am
    In our social world, people who are prettier (or hotter) can wear a wider range of clothing and still be seen as socially acceptable. For example, when less pretty people wear especially form-fitting or revealing clothes, they are likely to face social disapproval. They can’t “pull it off.” Similarly, people who are smarter (or wittier) can talk in conversation about a wider range of topics. If you are not clever or witty, and you bring up a sensitive topic, you are likely to seem awkward and inappropriate, and induce social disapproval. But if you are clever or witty, you…
  • Hope For A Lumpy Filter

    Robin Hanson
    20 Sep 2014 | 11:30 pm
    The great filter is the sum total of all of the obstacles that stand in the way of a simple dead planet (or similar sized material) proceeding to give rise to a cosmologically visible civilization. As there are 280 stars in the observable universe, and 260 within a billion light years, a simple dead planet faces at least roughly 60 to 80 factors of two obstacles to birthing a visible civilization within 13 billion years. If there is panspermia, i.e., a spreading of life at some earlier stage, the other obstacles must be even larger by the panspermia life-spreading factor. We know of a great…
  • Great Filter TEDx

    Robin Hanson
    16 Sep 2014 | 4:35 pm
    This Saturday I’ll speak on the great filter at TEDx Limassol in Cyprus. Though I first wrote about the subject in 1996, this is actually the first time I’ve been invited to speak on it. It only took 19 years. I’ll post links here to slides and video when available. Added 22Sep: A preliminary version of the video can be found here starting at minute 34.
  • Did Industry Cause Nations?

    Robin Hanson
    14 Sep 2014 | 4:45 pm
    An interesting claim: the nation-state didn’t exist before, and was caused by, the industrial revolution. Oh there were empires before, but most people didn’t identify much with empires, or see empires as much influencing their lives. In contrast people identify with nation-states, which they see as greatly influencing their lives. More: Before the late 18th century there were no real nation states. … If you travelled across Europe, no one asked for your passport at borders; neither passports nor borders as we know them existed. People had ethnic and cultural identities, but these…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    All Articles on Seeking Alpha

  • Fannie Mae Ruling Means Ackman's Valuation Is Now $100-$250

    1 Oct 2014 | 5:49 am
    By Glen Bradford:Have you been assuming that the Third Amendment will not be amended? Me too! That's why you need to read what I am about to say to make sense of what I am pointing out as the biggest win for common shareholders that I didn't know about until a few hours ago! The Third Amendment is a great thing! It ended the 10% interest payments! Treasury agreed to a net worth sweep in exchange for eliminating the cash dividend equivalent to 10% of the GSEs' liquidation preference I would like to thank Frank Fosco for helping me write this article. He has shown me the light and the truth.
  • A Red Beta Market Gives One Last Chance To Accumulate Q2 Holdings Before The End Of Year Run

    1 Oct 2014 | 5:47 am
    By Dallas Salazar:It's really unusual that I would be writing about Q2 Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:QTWO) during the most volatile macros markets that we've seen since the last time I wrote about QTWO. It's unusual because yet again I'm here to tell the story of how QTWO continues to make progress in its effort to replace and make obsolete the lacking competitors in its regional and community financial institution e-banking space and how those efforts and the fruits of those efforts have yet to show in the form of a share price increase because of the macro market volatility.In this particular…
  • Apple Update: China Gets The iPhone 6

    1 Oct 2014 | 5:43 am
    By Bill Maurer:A couple of weeks ago, I detailed a report stating that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) may not start selling the iPhone 6 in China until calendar 2015. It appeared that approval for sales of the phone would not be established this year. I did not think that this news was necessarily a huge negative. My first reaction was that it would just push sales back a little, so we would need to adjust our quarterly estimates a little. Additionally, because these new iPhones appear to be supply constrained at launch, a later China launch could be better in getting phones out quicker now to those…
  • Inevitable Ineffective Banking Regulation

    1 Oct 2014 | 5:43 am
    By David Merkel, CFA:I am mystified at why people might be outraged or surprised that the Federal Reserve does a poor job of overseeing banks. The Fed is an overstaffed bureaucracy. Overstaffed bureaucracies always tend toward consensus and non-confrontation.I know this from my days of working as an actuary inside an overstaffed life insurance company, and applying for work in other such companies. I did not fit the paradigm, because I had strong views of right and wrong, and strong views on how to run a business well, which was more aggressive than the company that I worked for was generally…
  • Hong Kong August Retail Sales: Read-Through On North American Consumer Names

    1 Oct 2014 | 5:39 am
    By WestEnd511:Hong Kong released its August retail sales figure that showed a +3.4% improvement compared with -3.2% decline in July. This handily beat the consensus -2% decline. While the overall value and volume saw a positive uptick, jewelry sales continue to be in the negative territory, which does not bode well for Tiffany's (NYSE:TIF) and Coach (NYSE:COH), which have significant presence in Asia. Moreover, the current protest "Occupy Central" is hurting the overall spending environment, so we can expect September sale to fall back into the negative territory, which will hurt companies…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • “An exact fishy test”

    Andrew
    27 Sep 2014 | 6:13 am
    Macartan Humphreys supplied this amusing demo. Just click on the link and try it—it’s fun! Here’s an example: I came up with 10 random numbers: > round(.5+runif(10)*100) [1] 56 23 70 83 29 74 23 91 25 89 and entered them into Macartan’s app, which promptly responded: Unbelievable! You chose the numbers 56 23 70 83 29 74 23 91 25 89 But these are clearly not random numbers. We can tell because random numbers do not contain patterns but the numbers you entered show a fairly obvious pattern. Take another look at the sequence you put in. You will see that the number of…
  • MA206 Program Director’s Memorandum

    Andrew
    26 Sep 2014 | 6:22 am
    A couple years ago I gave a talk at West Point. It was fun. The students are all undergraduates, and most of the instructors were just doing the job for two years or so between other assignments. The permanent faculty were focused on teaching and organizing the curriculum. As part of my visit I sat in on an intro statistics class and did a demo for them (probably it was the candy weighing but I don’t remember). At that time I picked up an information sheet for the course: “Memorandum for Academic Year (AY) 13-02 MA206 Students, United States Military Academy.” Lots of…
  • Free Stan T-shirt to the first “little twerp” who does a (good) Bayesian analysis of Jon Lee Anderson’s height

    Andrew
    25 Sep 2014 | 1:55 pm
    I’d like to see a Stan implementation of the analysis presented in this comment by Gary from a year and a half ago. The post Free Stan T-shirt to the first “little twerp” who does a (good) Bayesian analysis of Jon Lee Anderson’s height appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • “Derek Jeter was OK”

    Andrew
    25 Sep 2014 | 12:56 pm
    Tom Scocca files a bizarrely sane column summarizing the famous shortstop’s accomplishments: Derek Jeter was an OK ballplayer. He was pretty good at playing baseball, overall, and he did it for a pretty long time. . . . You have to be good at baseball to last 20 seasons in the major leagues. . . . He was a successful batter in productive lineups for many years. . . . He was not Ted Williams or Rickey Henderson. Spectators did not come away from seeing Derek Jeter marveling at the stupendous, unimaginable feats of hitting they had seen. But he did lots and lots of damage. He got many big…
  • Waic for time series

    Andrew
    25 Sep 2014 | 6:24 am
    Helen Steingroever writes: I’m currently working on a model comparison paper using WAIC, and would like to ask you the following question about the WAIC computation: I have data of one participant that consist of 100 sequential choices (you can think of these data as being a time series). I want to compute the WAIC for these data. Now I’m wondering how I should compute the predictive density. I think there are two possibilities: (1) I compute the predictive density of the whole sequence (i.e., I consider the whole sequence as one data point, which means that n=1 in Equations (11) –…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Streetsblog New York City

  • NYC: Traffic Lights Don’t Belong on a Park Loop

    Stephen Miller
    30 Sep 2014 | 1:11 pm
    Cyclists, joggers, and walkers coexist on the loop in Amsterdam’s Vondelpark. Photo: Jannes Glas/Flickr Two separate crashes in which cyclists struck and killed pedestrians on the Central Park loop have garnered more media attention than any other traffic safety issue in the past two months. In addition to the inevitable reemergence of a few bikelash trolls, the collisions have led to a round of less spiteful stories that still miss the mark, framing the whole issue in terms of adherence to traffic lights. Collisions on the loop roads in both Central Park and Prospect Park are…
  • NYC: Vance Brings Manslaughter Charge in Death of Pedestrian Charity Hicks

    Brad Aaron
    30 Sep 2014 | 11:08 am
    A motorist charged with manslaughter for the death of a Manhattan pedestrian is scheduled to appear in court later this week. Charity Hicks. Photo via Gothamist Thomas Shanley, 35, was texting when he drove a Dodge SUV onto the curb on 10th Avenue near W. 34th Street at around 8:20 a.m. on May 31, striking a fire hydrant and a bus stop signpost and mortally wounding Charity Hicks, according to a criminal court complaint and reports from Gothamist and the Daily News. A second pedestrian was also injured. The criminal court complaint says video reviewed by NYPD showed the SUV moving…
  • NYC: Eyes on the Street: Brooklyn Hit-and-Run Aftermath at 4th Ave and Degraw

    Stephen Miller
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:50 am
    After the driver fled the scene, a 78th Precinct officer inspects a car on Degraw Street. Photo: Mike Donohue Reader Mike Donohue sends this eyewitness account of a driver who fled the scene of a crash in Park Slope Sunday morning. At about 9:45 a.m., Donohue was on his bike, stopped at a red light on Degraw Street at Fourth Avenue. When the light turned green for traffic on Degraw, a driver heading north on Fourth Avenue ran the light and made a high-speed left turn onto Degraw, crashing into a road construction site and hitting a parked car. With airbags deployed and steam rising from the…
  • NYC: Today’s Headlines

    Stephen Miller
    30 Sep 2014 | 5:58 am
    Dana Lerner: DAs and NYPD Must Enforce the Laws Against Deadly Driving (NYT) Since April, TLC Enforcement Against Dangerous Cabbies Has Skyrocketed (Post) Council Member Miller Wants More TLC Enforcement Against Dangerous Dollar Vans (TL) A Brooklyn Speed Camera Is Catching Speeders, and WPIX Is Outraged Times Union Wants Cuomo to “Be the Adult in the Room” and Reveal Reliable TZB Funding Plan Bikelash Media Coverage Boomlet Continues (Crain’s, WNBC), Spreads to Prospect Park (NY1) WCBS Questions the “Zero” in Vision Zero, and de Blasio Focuses on Individual…
  • NYC: No Charges for Bus Driver Who Killed Pedestrian Jennifer White-Estick

    Brad Aaron
    29 Sep 2014 | 12:57 pm
    Police filed no charges against the MTA bus driver who killed a pedestrian in Bedford-Stuyvesant two weeks ago. Instead, NYPD and the tabloids put the victim on trial. At around 1:30 in the afternoon on Wednesday, September 17, Jennifer White-Estick was run over while trying to retrieve her cell phone from underneath a B44 bus she had just exited at Bedford Avenue and Fulton Street. Jennifer White-Estick. Photo via Facebook By the time the Post published its extremely graphic report on the crash at around 4 p.m., police had declared “no criminality suspected.” Reporters from the…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The Big Picture

  • 10 Wednesday AM Reads

    Barry Ritholtz
    1 Oct 2014 | 4:30 am
    Welcome to October — my favorite month! We do occasionally have some (ahem) disruptions in the markets, it is the transitional period from September, the worst month to the best 6 months of the year.  Read all about it: • Bill Gross, Calpers and the End of the Investment Guru (Upshot) see also The moment Bill Gross’ days at Pimco became numbered: A broker’s view (LA Times) • Luster Restored: Huge demand for classic cars revs up interest in refurbishments (Barron’s Penta) • Abenomics: will the sun rise on Japan again?  (Telegraph) see also Helicopter money: The…
  • Declining Homeownership among “Prime” First-Time Home Buying Candidates

    Guest Author
    1 Oct 2014 | 3:00 am
  • Open Secret of Libor Manipulation

    Barry Ritholtz
    30 Sep 2014 | 4:00 pm
    Open Secret: The Global Banking Conspiracy That Swindled Investors Out of Billions is the new book written by Erin Arvedlund. The book goes behind the scenes of the elite firms that trafficked in LiBOR based products, including Barclays Capital, UBS, Rabobank, and Citigroup to show the negative impact they had on both ordinary investors and borrowers. Erin’s claim to fame was a column she wrote in Barron’s in the early 2000s outing Bernie Madoff as a fraud. It was a national bestseller titled Too Good to Be True. Here is Yahoo: “LIBOR, the London Interbank Offered Rate, is…
  • 10 Tuesday PM Reads

    Barry Ritholtz
    30 Sep 2014 | 1:30 pm
    My afternoon train reads: • Bill Gross: Not the King of Bond Markets, After All? (CIO) but see Pimco Is in a Race to Keep Investors After Bill Gross Exits (WSJ) • Emotions make awful investment managers (Certifiable Planner) • ERP: The single, best way to tell whether stocks are worth it (Fortune) • Why investors are ignoring war, terror and turmoil: Global political change has done more to create opportunities than to destroy them (Financial Times) • A Dozen Things I’ve Learned from Henry Ellenbogen (25iq) • Revisiting the Lehman Brothers Bailout That Never Was (NY Times)…
  • Railway Shipping Reshape Crude Market

    Barry Ritholtz
    30 Sep 2014 | 11:30 am
    Source: WSJ
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The Epicurean Dealmaker

  • TED’s All Time Greatest Hits

    29 Sep 2014 | 7:44 pm
    The person who experiences greatness must have a feeling for the myth he is in. He must reflect what is projected upon him. And he must have a strong sense of the sardonic. This is what uncouples him from belief in his own pretensions. The sardonic is all that permits him to move within himself. Without this quality, even occasional greatness will destroy a man.— Frank Herbert, DuneI have used the preceding epigraph before, as some of you Delightful Readers may recall. It is a versatile and thought-provoking sentiment. Like many quotes and excerpts from Dune, which I contend is one of the…
  • Oop. Time, She’s Up

    20 Sep 2014 | 3:52 pm
    “I am old, Gandalf. I don’t look it, but I am beginning to feel it in my heart of hearts. Well-preserved indeed! Why, I feel all thin, sort of stretched, if you know what I mean: like butter that has been scraped over too much bread. That can’t be right. I need a change, or something.”― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Lord of the RingsWhen I launched this blog seven and three-quarters years ago, O Dearly Beloved, my first post incorporated the following mission statement:I have started this blog to comment on what I consider to be a fascinating part of the global economy: the global market for…
  • Some Work of Noble Note May Yet Be Done

    14 Sep 2014 | 9:56 am
    We are not now that strength which in old daysMoved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are,One equal temper of heroic hearts,Made weak by time and fate, but strong in willTo strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.— Alfred Lord Tennyson, “Ulysses”Ever since the release of Dr. No in 1962, the James Bond 007 films have acted as a touchstone and running commentary on popular culture and society. For over half a century, a parade of different Bonds, Bond Girls, and increasingly over the top villains have offered escapist fantasies of varying implausibility and ridiculousness which…
  • Amakudari Revisited

    3 Sep 2014 | 10:43 am
    Thomas Nast, Mr. Moneybags“If you were sensible of your own good, you would not wish to quit the sphere in which you have been brought up.”“In marrying your nephew, I should not consider myself as quitting that sphere. He is a gentleman; I am a gentleman’s daughter; so far we are equal.”“True. You are a gentleman’s daughter. But who was your mother? Who are your uncles and aunts? Do not imagine me ignorant of their condition.”“Whatever my connections may be,” said Elizabeth, “if your nephew does not object to them, they can be nothing to you.”— Jane Austen, Pride and…
  • Labor Day

    1 Sep 2014 | 11:04 am
    Diego Rivera, Melancholy Promenade, 1904Thomasina: “Oh, Septimus! — can you bear it? All the lost plays of the Athenians! Two hundred at least by Aeschylus, Sophocles, Euripides — thousands of poems — Aristotle’s own library! … How can we sleep for grief?”Septimus: “By counting our stock. Seven plays from Aeschylus, seven from Sophocles, nineteen from Euripides, my lady! You should no more grieve for the rest than for a buckle lost from your first shoe, or for your lesson book which will be lost when you are old. We shed as we pick up, like travellers who must carry everything…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    OUPblog

  • Bimonthly etymology gleanings for August and September 2014. Part 1

    Alice
    1 Oct 2014 | 5:30 am
    I was out of town at the end of this past August and have a sizable backlog of unanswered questions and comments. It may take me two or even three weeks to catch up with them. I am not complaining: on the contrary, I am delighted to have correspondents from Sweden to Taiwan. Today I will deal with the questions only about the two most recent posts. Kiss Our regular correspondent Mr. John Larsson took issue with my remark that kiss has nothing to do with chew and cited some arguments in favor of the chew connection. We should distinguish between the “institute of kissing” and the word for…
  • Can Cameron capture women’s votes?

    Alice
    1 Oct 2014 | 3:30 am
    After the Scottish Independence Referendum, the journalist Cathy Newman wrote of the irony that Cameron – the man with the much reported ‘problem’ with women – in part owes his job to the female electorate in Scotland. As John Curtice’s post-referendum analysis points out, women seemed more reluctant than men to vote ‘yes’ due to relatively greater pessimism of the economic consequences of a yes vote. The Scottish vote should remind Cameron and the Conservative strategists who advise him of a very clear message: ignore women voters at your peril. For several decades after UK…
  • On the importance of independent, objective policy analysis

    DanP
    1 Oct 2014 | 12:30 am
    I have written about the dangers of making economic policy on the basis of ideology rather than cold, hard economic analysis. Ideologically-based economic policy has laid the groundwork for many of the worst economic disasters of the last 200 years. The decision to abandon the first and second central banks in the United States in the early 19th century led to chronic financial instability for much of the next three quarters of a century. Britain’s re-establishment of the gold standard in 1925, which encouraged other countries to do likewise, contributed to the spread and intensification of…
  • Setting the scene of New Orleans during Reconstruction

    Daniella Frangione
    30 Sep 2014 | 3:30 am
    The Reconstruction era was a critical moment in the history of American race relations. Though Abraham Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation made great strides towards equality, the aftermath was a not-quited newly integrated society, greatly conflicted and rife with racial tension. At the height of Radical Reconstruction, in June 1870, seventeen-month-old Irish-American Mollie Digby was kidnapped from her home in New Orleans — allegedly by two Afro-Creole women. In The Great New Orleans Kidnapping Case: Race, Law, and Justice in the Reconstruction Era, Michael A. Ross offers the…
  • Austin City Limits through the years

    Daniella Frangione
    30 Sep 2014 | 1:30 am
    Austin City Limits is the longest running musical showcase in the history of television, spanning over four decades and showcasing the talents of musicians from Willie Nelson and Ray Charles to Arcade Fire and Mos Def. The show is a testament to the evolution of media and popular music and the audience’s relationship to that music, and to the city of Austin, Texas. In Austin City Limits: A History, author Tracey E. W. Laird takes us behind-the-scenes with interviews, anecdotes, and personal photographs to pay homage to this landmark program. In doing so, she also illuminates the overarching…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

  • The Vioxx Ban: Ten Years On

    Don Boudreaux
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:22 pm
    (Don Boudreaux) Intrigued by G. Pyle pointing me to a Cafe Hayek post of exactly three years ago, I went – just out of curiosity – to see what was posted at the Cafe exactly ten years ago today.  Here’s the last of three Cafe posts from September 30, 2004.  (Wow!  It doesn’t seem to have been that long ago.  Time do fly.)
  • Competition Takes Many Forms

    Don Boudreaux
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:04 pm
    (Don Boudreaux) “G. Pyle” – who describes himself or herself as “a darn reg’lar” Cafe patron – points out to me by e-mail that the Quotation of the Day from exactly three years ago, one from the great Harold Demsetz, is relevant to today’s earlier letter to Paul Krugman.
  • Frank Questions for Paul Krugman

    Don Boudreaux
    30 Sep 2014 | 10:34 am
    (Don Boudreaux) Here’s a letter to Paul Krugman: Mr. Krugman: On your blog recently you wrote that conspicuous spending by the rich “imposes negative externalities on the rest of the population” (“Having It and Flaunting It,” Sept. 24).  You are here, I assume, endorsing the argument made by Cornell economist Robert Frank that when ordinary people see rich people consuming conspicuously they suffer mental distress - and they deal with this distress by working too hard, spending too much, and going into excessive debt in order to try to mimic the consumption patterns of the…
  • Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    30 Sep 2014 | 4:30 am
    (Don Boudreaux) … is from page 146 of Ludwig von Mises‘s 1951 essay “Profit and Loss,” as reprinted in the 2008 Liberty Fund edition of Mises’s 1952 collection, Planning for Freedom: What has been called the democracy of the market manifests itself in the fact that profit-seeking business is unconditionally subject to the supremacy of the buying public.
  • Inequality Does NOT Explain This Fact

    Don Boudreaux
    29 Sep 2014 | 5:32 pm
    (Don Boudreaux) In a new and, I’m certain, well-researched paper, Alice Chen, Emily Oster, and Heidi Williams explore reasons why infant mortality is higher in the U.S. than it is in many other developed countries.  (HT Tyler Cowen)  Here’s the abstract: The US has a substantial – and poorly understood – infant mortality disadvantage relative to peer countries. We combine comprehensive micro-data on births and infant deaths in the US from 2000 to 2005 with comparable data from Austria and Finland to investigate this disadvantage. Differential reporting of births near…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Dollars & Sense Blog

  • Annual Labor Issue

    Chris Sturr
    25 Sep 2014 | 3:23 pm
      We have finally sent our September/October 2014 Annual Labor Issue out to e-subscribers (print subscribers should get it within a week to ten days).  And I just posted our cover story to the website, The Future of Work, Leisure, and Consumption in an Age of Economic and Ecological Crisis, which is an interview with economist and Boston College sociology professor Juliet Schor. Here is the editors’ note from p. 2 of the issue: Unconventional Wisdom Here are some bits of “conventional wisdom” about labor relations and work in the United States today: It’s part of the…
  • Climate March Links: Industrial Policy!

    Chris Sturr
    19 Sep 2014 | 3:49 pm
    A few items in advance of this weekend’s Climate March in NYC: (1) Ron Baiman of the Chicago Political Economy Group sent us this: I’m sometimes asked: What is industrial policy? This article (“Sun and Wind Alter Global Landscape, Leaving Utilities Behind”) by Justin Gillis of the New York Times shows what industrial policy is. If Germany, a country with little sun, and little wind-swept land mass can do it, we all can! In fact as the article notes, German (and Chinese) industrial policies are bringing prices down and making these planetary saving technologies…
  • Tuesday Links: CEO Pay, Crisis Costs, Climate March, etc.

    Chris Sturr
    16 Sep 2014 | 10:47 am
    (1) Dr. Dollar on the Ex-Im Bank.  Our latest piece from the (still in production) Sept/Oct issue: Arthur “Dr. Dollar” MacEwan answers this question from D&S reader Arne Alpert: “Congressional Republicans and the Heritage Foundation are making a big deal about the Export-Import Bank, calling it “crony capitalism.” Are they right? Does the Ex-Im Bank serve a useful purpose, or is it just propping up the profits of trans-national corporations?” (2) Susan Holmberg and Mark Schmitt, The Overpaid CEO. Interesting piece that focuses on the costs of high CEO pay.
  • “Labor Day” Links: Rand Wilson, Steve Early, Jeannette Wicks-Lim

    Chris Sturr
    1 Sep 2014 | 8:23 am
    (1) Jeannette Wicks-Lim on the Real News Network.  Frequent D&S author and staff economist at the Political Economy Research Institute, Jeannette Wicks-Lim, in an interview back in 2009 about the coming low-wage future. The email today from TRNN linking to the piece was entitled “Labor Day: The Less-Radical Alternative to May Day.” I consider this witty understatement. If you do a Google Images search for “Labor Day” (or click this link) you get lots of American flag waving, and the slogan: “Labor Day: Celebrating the Achievements of America’s…
  • Thursday Links: Boots, Salaita, Kalamazoo, etc.

    Chris Sturr
    28 Aug 2014 | 11:37 am
    (1) Boots Riley talks communism on Fox:  See what happens when someone criticizes capitalism on an Ohio Fox affiliate.  The story at the Plain Dealer website is great; the comment section is hilarious. See also the original story at the Lakewood Citizen website. (2) Holding Bankers Accountable, New York Times Room for Debate: Lisa Gilbert and Bartlett Naylor of Public Citizen have a piece in this forum, as does Lynn Stout. (3) NYT endorses Tim Wu for NYS lt. gov., a day after failing to endorse Wu’s running mate, Zephyr Teachout, for governor, which many commenters at…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Japan Economy Watch

  • Does Abenomics Work? - The Doubts Grow

    Edward Hugh
    18 Sep 2014 | 12:35 pm
    Is something in the air? Do I detect a change in consensus on the way things are going in Japan? Certainly a slew of articles have been published in the financial press over the last month questioning where the Abenomics experiment is headed for. The general conclusion seems to be that wherever it is it is certainly not the originally designated endpoint. Thus the Economist. "It is crisis mode
  • Abenomics - What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

    Edward Hugh
    14 Aug 2014 | 8:05 am
    If this week's economics news is positive then that is good.  But if it's bad then that's even better, since there is more potential for it to improve next week, and if it doesn't, well that's doubly better since there will be  even more reason for central banks to step in and push up asset prices. Maybe all this sounds peculiar, even perverse, but it would seem to be how many people working in
  • Japan Inflation At A 32 Year High?

    Edward Hugh
    29 Jun 2014 | 12:23 pm
    Just in case anyone was in any doubt last weeks newspaper  headlines blared it out for us loud and clear - Japanese inflation is back, and has even hit levels last seen in 1982. (Click on image below for better viewing). In fact consumer prices in Japan rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in May according to the Bank of Japan's preferred measure, driven higher from one month to another by the
  • Will Japan Re-enter Deflation in April 2015?

    Edward Hugh
    20 Jun 2014 | 3:20 am
    Reading the most recent statements from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda or Finance Minister Taro Aso you would get the impression that the days of deflation are now well and truly numbered in Japan. Martin Schulz, economist at Fujitsu Research Institute in Tokyo, goes even further. “Deflation is over in Japan,” he told Bloomberg Television First Up’s Angie Lau . Even Japan’s industrial
  • The Growing Mess Which Will Be Left Behind By The Abenomics Experiment

    Edward Hugh
    2 Mar 2014 | 3:30 am
    According to wikipedia, "overdetermination is a phenomenon whereby a single observed effect is determined by multiple causes at once, any one of which alone might be enough to account for ("determine") the effect.That is, there are more causes present than are necessary to generate the effect".  In this strictly technical sense Japan's deflation problem is overdetermined - there are multiple
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Blockindicator of Solar Green Energy Growth

  • Attempt The Bathroom Remodeling Project

    block
    17 Sep 2014 | 2:45 am
    Bathrooms are one area of the home that offer solace and convenience, which implies they should have a lot of attention when it comes to restroom renovation. Looking at graphics of other people’s restroom remodeling jobs will certainly give you concepts of how you can renovate your restroom to make it more welcoming and mirror your character. In order to achieve the restroom remodeling effect you prefer, you have to plan appropriately. You should select the theme or design that you want for the restroom. Once you have picked the standard design you can actually tailor the results by…
  • The Audience And The Search Engine Indexing

    block
    3 Jul 2014 | 7:13 am
    At present, social media sites is considered a part of everyone’s lives. In fact, two-thirds of people make use of social websites to obtain in touch with loved ones while the rest say they get in touch with pals they haven’t seen for several years. Social network sites such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube are utilized as methods by big companies. According to study, 95 percent of respondents select Facebook as top social media platform. Using social media as part of the advertising method of companies, Search Engine Optimization or SEO is likewise a fantastic platform to achieve…
  • Analyze Web Methods And Techniques

    block
    3 Jul 2014 | 5:11 am
    The bottom line about “free web site marketing offers” is that ‘nothing is really ever complimentary’. Any individual or entity or company that does not imagine spending income to promote their website will have to remember that substantial time will certainly have to be invested, if cash is to be conserved. Find the very best and standard Search Engine Optimization policies and methods that can drive online interest and queries to your web site and increase page rankings on the Web. The easy suggestion to keep in mind right here is that text consisted of in the ALT…
  • What To Do When Charged With A Criminal Offense?

    block
    9 Jun 2014 | 4:14 am
    Being charged with a major crime is a frightening and demanding situation. It can threaten your liberty and every aspect of your life. If you have actually been charged with a crime you will need an excellent criminal attorney to safeguard you and guarantee your rights are shielded under the law. Looking for counsel from a good lawyer who specialises in criminal matters is the very first step you should take as quickly as you have been charged. There are a variety of means you can discover the ideal lawyer for you. This article gives you suggestions on what to do. When you are charged,…
  • Locked Out From Home Prevention Tips

    block
    5 Jun 2014 | 4:26 am
    Getting locked out is never fun. We have all been there a minimum of once in our lives. The locksmiths I’m talking for this post are for houses, and even particular types of companies. It’s easy to run out of your house or company rapidly, and close a locked door. All of us survive a schedule and get behind from time to time. We cut corners occasionally to save time one way or another. Getting locked out occurs. Lots of people park in their garages so the entryway to our home is normally limited to the door into our home from the garage. Being a locksmith, I’ve even seen…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Credit Slips

  • Flagstar Servicing Enforcement Order

    Adam Levitin
    30 Sep 2014 | 6:51 am
    The CFPB entered into a Consent Order with Flagstar Bank regarding its default mortgage servicing practices. This order is really important. It's the first enforcement action of the CFPB's new servicing rules, and its "benching" remedy that prevents Flagstar from most default servicing until it demonstrates compliance shows that the Bureau is serious about cleaning out the Augean stables of servicing. (The Ocwen order had a much larger dollar figure attached, but was about pre-2014 conduct). The details given in the consent order tell an all-too-common picture about…
  • What do bankruptcy mortgage servicing and ebola have in common?

    Katie Porter
    24 Sep 2014 | 10:31 am
    A long long time ago in this same galaxy, I wrote what may be Credit Slips' most popular post: What do bankruptcy mortgage servicing and phone sex in common? Today, I bring you a new comparison: bankruptcy mortgage servicing and ebola. At the outset, let me be very clear that ebola is a tragic health care crisis. I do not mean to minimize those deaths and illnesses with a comparison to mortgage servicing--although to be sure, poor mortgage servicing has tragic financial consequences. Here is the basic analogy. Ebola has a high kill rate. Similarly, screwed up mortgage servicing can be…
  • Rants and Book Recommendations

    Stephen Lubben
    23 Sep 2014 | 7:11 am
    Just back from European Law and Economics, where the big topics at the coffee breaks were the Scottish vote, until that was resolved, sort of, Argentina, which is widely seen as a self-created mess for the U.S. courts, and the Air France strike, which caused presenters and chairs to miss sessions at random throughout the conference. I also came home to find that the Financial Times had revised its paper format to make everything look like a "Special Advertising Section." Sigh. But the flight home was helped along by a good read:  Money and Tough Love, by Liaquat Ahamed. It's…
  • Yoga for Stressed Out Lawyers ... and Their Debtor-Clients

    Jason Kilborn
    22 Sep 2014 | 9:43 am
    And now time for something entirely different. I noticed a great new book in our list of library acquisitions recently that might be of particular interest to two groups that suffer from lots of stress: lawyers and debtors! Credit Slips' own Nathalie Martin has teamed up with a lawyer-turned-yogi and the ABA to produce a really wonderful new book, Yoga for Laywers: Mind-Body Techniques to Feel Better All the Time. The book contains a very nice discussion of stress, its causes and effects, and its relief through yoga poses, mindfulness and meditation.  I've read a lot of these kinds…
  • "Oh Dear Me No, I Couldn't Possibly Hear Another Appeal..."

    Mark Weidemaier
    19 Sep 2014 | 5:49 pm
    The Second Circuit has refused to hear Citibank's appeal of Judge Griesa's order enjoining Citi from making payment on USD-denominated, Argentine-law bonds. The Second Circuit's order is a bit... Delphic. Weighing in at all of 56 words, not counting citations, the court simply "decline[d] to find jurisdiction" because the district judge's order "is a clarification, not a modification" of the injunction. The distinction seems a bit fine, given the stakes. Recall that some USD-denominated, Argentine law bonds are Exchange Bonds (and thus subject to…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The Aleph Blog » The Aleph Blog

  • Inevitable Ineffective Banking Regulation

    David Merkel
    1 Oct 2014 | 1:58 am
    Photo Credit: Michael DaddinoI am mystified at why people might be outraged or surprised that the Federal Reserve does a poor job of overseeing banks.  The Fed is an overstaffed bureaucracy.  Overstaffed bureaucracies always tend toward consensus and non-confrontation.I know this from my days of working as an actuary inside an overstaffed life insurance company, and applying for work in other such companies.  I did not fit the paradigm, because I had strong views of right and wrong, and strong views on how to run a business well, which was more aggressive than the company that I worked for…
  • AIG Was Broke

    David Merkel
    30 Sep 2014 | 2:54 am
    Photo Credit: RonThere’s a significant problem when you are a supremely big and connected financial institution: your failure will have an impact on the financial system as a whole.  Further, there is no one big enough to rescue you unless we drag out the public credit via the US Treasury, or its dedicated commercial paper financing facility, the Federal Reserve.  You are Too Big To Fail [TBTF].Thus, even if you don’t fit into ordinary categories of systematic risk, like a bank, the government is not going to sit around and let you “gum up” the financial system…
  • Time to Chase Bill Gross?

    David Merkel
    27 Sep 2014 | 11:25 pm
    Jason Zweig at the Wall Street Journal had a very good piece on whether to follow Bill Gross as he goes from Pimco to Janus.  Let me quote one paragraph:Morningstar estimates that over the past five years, the average investor fell behind Pimco Total Return’s 5.6% annual gain by 1.6 points a year—largely as a result of buying high and selling low. That gap is among the widest of any large bond fund; at the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund, for example, investors have earned returns only 0.4 point lower than those of the portfolio itself.In the short run, this offers a reason to…
  • Two Questions on Fixed Income from the Mailbag

    David Merkel
    20 Sep 2014 | 9:15 pm
    Photo Credit: Ana Flávia CadorFrom my readers:What are your thoughts on Pimco’s new strategy for its flagship fund?This concerns me because its one of the few “safe” funds in my company’s 401k plan.I haven’t heard anyone critique this and thought you’d be the best that I know of.It seems to me that its a disproportional risk. And that due to its size could potentially cause problems.http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2014/09/17/deriving-returns-at-pimco-total-return/This is not a new problem with Pimco.  You can review these two articles here:PIMCO in…
  • On LinkedIn Endorsements and Registered Investment Advisors

    David Merkel
    20 Sep 2014 | 9:03 pm
    I’m going to be away for a few days.  Maybe I will have time to post; most likely I won’t.  Before I go, I want to thank my readers who have endorsed me at LinkedIn.  You are most generous in your assessments of my abilities.But as for now, until there is better clarification of whether it is legitimate for advisors to accept endorsements at their LinkedIn profiles, I am disabling endorsements on my profile.  For those that want to do the same thing, you can find out how to do it here.I would just rather be safe than sorry.  Aside from that, how many people use LinkedIn to…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Quoting the Crisis

  • CEOs Get Paid Too Much, According to Pretty Much Everyone in the...

    23 Sep 2014 | 9:17 pm
    CEOs Get Paid Too Much, According to Pretty Much Everyone in the World Gretchen Gavett, hbr.org Rumblings of discontent about executive wages, the 1%, and wealth gaps know no borders. And neither does fierce debate about income inequality in general. But until now, it’s been relatively unclear how much people think CEOs should really make…
  • Microsoft’s $29.6 billion scam: Tech giant leads the way in...

    29 Aug 2014 | 11:07 am
    Microsoft’s $29.6 billion scam: Tech giant leads the way in tax-avoiding innovation David Sirota, salon.com More and more companies who enjoy huge benefits operating in the U.S. are trying to weasel their way out of taxesReading companies’ annual reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission is a reliable cure for insomnia. Every so often, though…
  • Beware the enormous bubble in bonds Chris Martenson,...

    29 Aug 2014 | 11:05 am
    Beware the enormous bubble in bonds Chris Martenson, marketwatch.com There’s an enormous bubble building in global bond markets, warns Chris Martenson.The only question now is: Who will take the losses?There’s a saying on Wall Street: Stocks are for show, but bonds are for dough.The flash, sizzle and focus…
  • A European Lost Decade?

    22 Aug 2014 | 4:03 am
    A European Lost Decade?: Michael Heise, project-syndicate.org Europe’s current economic predicament sounds a lot like Japan’s in the 1990s, which culminated in a “lost decade” of stagnant growth and deflation from which the country is still working to recover. How can Europe avoid a similar fate?
  • The Founding Fathers backed Thomas Piketty – and feared a...

    6 Jul 2014 | 12:42 am
    The Founding Fathers backed Thomas Piketty – and feared a powerful 1 percent Joseph Blasi, salon.com This 4th of July, remember the truth about founding fathers, and their prescient warnings about income inequalityMany of Amer­i­ca’s Founders believed that exces­sive wealth inequal­i­ty would be incom­pat­i­ble with hav­ing a rep­re­sen­ta­tiv…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    IMF Survey Magazine

  • Global Imbalances: Narrowing Flows, Widening Stocks

    30 Sep 2014 | 7:29 am
    As global current account imbalances wane, net creditor and debtor positions have diverged further, according to a new study just released in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook.
  • The Time Is Right for an Infrastructure Push

    30 Sep 2014 | 7:14 am
    In the current global environment of sub-par growth, there is a strong case for increasing public investment in countries where conditions are right, finds a new study released in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook.
  • IMF Approves $130 Million for Countries Worst Hit by Ebola

    26 Sep 2014 | 11:07 am
    As the death toll from Ebola rises and the economic impact of the crisis spreads, the IMF steps in to provide a total of $130 million of emergency financial assistance to Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, the three West African countries at the center of the epidemic.
  • IMF Loan to Help Yemen Tackle Reforms, Attract Aid

    24 Sep 2014 | 1:42 pm
    On September 2, the IMF approved a $553 million loan for Yemen to support the country’s plans to strengthen fiscal and external positions, boost growth, and fight poverty by reducing inefficient fuel subsidies, improving governance, and increasing monthly allowances paid by the Social Welfare Fund.
  • Labor, Judiciary, Tax Reforms Can Help Boost Italy’s Economy

    18 Sep 2014 | 8:53 am
    Italy is struggling to emerge from recession, as tight credit conditions shackle investment, high public debt weighs on future growth prospects and long-standing rigidities hamper productivity, IMF staff said in a regular review of the country’s economy.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The Baseline Scenario

  • Game of Thrones, The Wire, and the New York Fed

    James Kwak
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:07 am
    By James Kwak I wrote a column that went up this morning at The Atlantic about the ProPublica/This American Life story about the New York Fed. The gist of the argument is that we all knew the New York Fed was captured; for people like Tim Geithner, that’s a feature, not a bug. There was a paragraph in my original draft that I really liked, but I can completely understand why the editors didn’t want it: “When Tyrion Lannister wants his son killed, he sentences him to death in public. When Avon Barksdale wants potential incriminating witnesses killed, he obliquely lets his…
  • New Collection on Medium

    James Kwak
    25 Sep 2014 | 6:49 am
    By James Kwak I’ve joined a new collection on Medium devoted to business and finance writing. It’s called “Bull Market,” after an intense lobbying campaign (including alleged vote-buying, although I haven’t tried to collect) by Felix Salmon, and includes Felix, Mark Buchanan, Dan Davies, Alexis Goldstein, Francine McKenna, Evan Soltas, and Mark Stein. The goal is to write thoughtful articles that don’t just respond to the latest story on the wire (although there will be some of that, too). My contribution for today is a post about the no-poaching lawsuit…
  • Changes

    James Kwak
    19 Sep 2014 | 1:40 pm
    By James Kwak You may have noticed that my blogging has tailed way off over the past few months—to, well, just about nothing. You probably noticed that it was pretty spotty for a long time before that. The main reason is that I’ve been busy with a new teaching job, which requires some effort on academic publications, and raising two small children. The other major factor is that I often just find I don’t have much that’s original to say. Financial regulation is a pretty heavily covered field, and I don’t have the time to be a real expert on, say, derivatives…
  • An Elizabeth Warren for New York

    Simon Johnson
    7 Sep 2014 | 6:00 am
    By Simon Johnson These days, almost everyone likes to complain about institutional corruption – and various forms of intellectual capture of government orchestrated by big corporate interests. But very few people are willing to do anything meaningful about it. Zephyr Teachout is an exception. Not only has she written about the history of political corruption in the United States, both in long form (her recent book) and in many shorter versions (e.g., see this paper), she is competing for the Democratic nomination to become governor of New York. In many countries, Ms. Teachout would sweep to…
  • How to Get Thrown Out of a Luxury Hotel

    James Kwak
    7 Jul 2014 | 12:41 pm
    By James Kwak That’s one of the subplots of Big Money, by Politico reporter Kenneth Vogel, a book that I reviewed for yesterday’s issue of the New York Times Book Review. You can read that review, so I won’t re-review it here, except to say that if you were wondering how political operatives get rich people to part with their money, you’ll find out here.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Trends... Find them, ride them and get off.

  • Stocktoberfest Year 2 – October 27 and 28, 2014…Now Sold Out!

    Howard Lindzon
    29 Sep 2014 | 8:01 am
    Stocktoberfest 2014 on Coronado is sold out. I want to thank the 300 people that are coming to San Diego to participate in this amazing event. Here is the schedule for the two day event that includes some of the best (and my favorite…) traders, investors, technicians, RIA’s, financial writers, and fintech entrepreneurs on the planet. The show will open with Jack Schwager – the creator of ‘Trading Wizards’who has interviwed the best traders on the planet all around the globe. To see the speaker list, head over to the main site. The sponsors have allowed us to…
  • Nike – Just Doing It!

    Howard Lindzon
    28 Sep 2014 | 3:07 pm
    Nike exploded to the upside Friday. Here is an amazing chart the Stocktwits team put together: THE NKE NEW ALL-TIME HIGH. HERE'S A ROUGH HISTORY http://stks.co/h171e — StockTwits (@StockTwits) Sep. 26 at 12:50 PM My kids own the stock. I own the stock. My fund owns the stock. I have been bullish for years on this blog. I am not selling the stock but won’t add anymore. Even more than Apple and Google, Nike is a buy and hold and buy 20 plus percent dips for the Lindzon’s (2013 was the last good dip). I can’t sell a stock that has appreciated 26,000 percent since…
  • Robinhood…The Future of Mobile Brokerage

    Howard Lindzon
    23 Sep 2014 | 8:11 pm
    Today Robinhood announced a $13 million round of capital. Here is some of the big coverage and details. Robinhood had their own blog post. CNN covered the funding with this celebrity investor mugshot that does not include me: Yes there are a few celebrity investors but the lead investor is Index a very large and successful global Venture Capitalist based in London that focuses on Fintech. I am a huge fan of the Robinhood product, team and vision. Our fund Social Leverage was an angel investor. We also participated in this series A. Baiju and Vlad (the founders) will be at Stocktoberfest to…
  • Permanent Capital…a Money Manager’s Dream

    Howard Lindzon
    21 Sep 2014 | 7:25 am
    In last weeks’ podcast I talked with Michael Parekh about the cautionary flags being waved by Bill Gurley, a top venture Capitalist at Benchmark. Michael Parekh has seen a few cycles as a Goldman Sachs partner who created their internet franchise. We ended the show talking about the Bill Ackman IPO (his permanent capital) and what it meant for markets. Put simply, permanent capital is: capital that does not require replacement but is in continuous existence You can’t blame Ackman for wanting it. I am sure over the years he has faced redemptions at exactly the wrong time (at least…
  • The Alibaba IPO…The Climactic Top or a Continuation of the Boom?

    Howard Lindzon
    19 Sep 2014 | 12:05 pm
    First of all, what was #Scotland thinking: If #scotland had been smart they would have filed for IPO as a server farm not separation — howardlindzon (@howardlindzon) September 19, 2014 But enough about Scotland… I have long underestimated and underappreciated China. I like the good ‘ol’ USA. My thesis has always been if you can’t find investments in America you are not working hard enough. Furthermore, you can own China by owning great American companies. Today’s Alibaba IPO does not change my thinking, but does put an exclamation point on how profitable…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Economic Principals

  • Early Warnings

    dw
    29 Sep 2014 | 3:44 am
    The course in introductory computer science at Harvard College this year surpassed elementary economics in popularity. It has 818 enrollments, or nearly 12 percent of the undergraduate population, compared to 711 students in Economics 10. For most of the last thirty years, the economics course has been the catalog’s top offering. The swing probably reflects the expert showmanship of computer scientist David Malan more than any underlying change in the relative importance of the fields. (See this eye-opening account of Malan’s entrepreneurial flair by Cordelia Mendez, and/or read this…
  • Meanwhile, in the Annals of Citizenship

    dw
    21 Sep 2014 | 1:34 pm
    US capitalism seems to be taking another turn.  The Old Normal (Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different) was the expectation that, even after a serious banking crisis, growth would resume its long-term annual trend of 2.0 percent in five years or so. The New Normal says, “Forget the trend.” Robert Gordon, of Northwestern University, and Lawrence Summers, of Harvard University, expect slow growth for decades, thanks to various “headwinds,” or constraints on potential output  (Gordon); or insufficient demand, stemming from a savings glut (Summers). A lively…
  • Opposite Ends

    dw
    14 Sep 2014 | 1:31 pm
    Interested in some civic virtue? Some Got fourteen hours to spare?  A new series by master storyteller Ken Burns about Theodore, Franklin, and Eleanor airs this week on the public broadcasting network – two hours tonight, and each succeeding evening through Saturday. That’s one way to acquire a little social currency. If you are pressed for time, but still want something new to think and talk about, have a look at the Streamies, the self-professed Oscars of the YouTube serial comedy world. It is, of course, possible to learn more here than you want to know about what the young are…
  • Two Views of Russia

    dw
    7 Sep 2014 | 12:02 pm
    Perhaps the single most intriguing mystery of the Ukrainian crisis has to do with how the Foreign Service officer who served as deputy national security advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney for two years, starting on the eve of the invasion of Iraq, became the Obama administration’s point person on Russia in 2014. Victoria Nuland took office as Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs a year ago this week. She became the “driving force” within the administration to take a tough line against Russia, according to Geoff Dyer of the Financial Times. It was Nuland who…
  • Summer Ends Now

    dw
    31 Aug 2014 | 3:30 pm
    Labor Day in the United States, and EP has taken the day off.  Herewith a re-issue of EP’s edition of July 18, 2004. Frank Levy, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology,  and Richard Murnane, of Harvard University,  had just published The New Division of Labor: How Computers Are Creating the Next Job Market (Princeton, 2004).  It turned out to be one of the most prescient books of the decade. Murnane has continued to teach. His econometrics horn book for graduate students,  Methods Matter: Improving Causal Inference in Educational and Social Science Research,  with John…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Marginal REVOLUTION

  • What is the relevant bias when Westerners try to predict what Chinese leaders will do?

    Tyler Cowen
    30 Sep 2014 | 9:53 pm
    I see a whole bunch of candidates here, each backed by a broadly plausible psychological story: 1. They are more ruthless than we realize. 2. They are more like us than we realize. 2b. #1 and #2. 3. They have longer time horizons than we imagine. 4. Due to extreme political constraints, they have far shorter time horizons than we think. 5. They are more inured to the risk of economic depression and hardship than we grasp. 6. They are more obsessed with parallels to earlier Chinese history than a typical Westerner would find natural. 7. They are less rational than social science rational…
  • The CIA Starbucks (intelligence markets in everything)

    Tyler Cowen
    30 Sep 2014 | 9:03 pm
    Emily Wax-Thibodeaux reports: The new supervisor thought his idea was innocent enough. He wanted the baristas to write the names of customers on their cups to speed up lines and ease confusion, just like other Starbucks do around the world. But these aren’t just any customers. They are regulars at the CIA Starbucks. “They could use the alias ‘Polly-O string cheese’ for all I care,” said a food services supervisor at the Central Intelligence Agency, asking that his identity remain unpublished for security reasons. “But giving any name at all was making people — you know, the…
  • The return to education in France?

    Tyler Cowen
    30 Sep 2014 | 12:34 pm
    Pierre Mouganie has a new paper: In 1997, the French government put into effect a law that permanently exempted young French male citizens born after Jan 1, 1979 from mandatory military service while still requiring those born before that cutoff date to serve. This paper uses a regression discontinuity design to identify the effect of peacetime conscription on education and labor market outcomes. Results indicate that conscription eligibility induces a significant increase in years of education, which is consistent with conscription avoidance behavior. However, this increased education does…
  • Assorted links

    Tyler Cowen
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:30 am
    1. Mining Bitcoin by hand. 2. John Cochrane on inequality. 3. Will your grandmother ever find Borat funny? 4. Interview with a Chinese Misesian. 5. Recessions seem to have a permanent effect on lowering fertility. 6. Teledentistry.  And Jacob Weisberg reviews Rick Perlstein.
  • Caffeine-infused underwear fails (there is a great stagnation)

    Tyler Cowen
    30 Sep 2014 | 5:08 am
    Bras, girdles and leggings infused with caffeine and sold as weight loss aids were more decaf than espresso, and the companies that sold them have agreed to refund money to customers and pull their ads, U.S. regulators said on Monday. The Federal Trade Commission said Wacoal America and Norm Thompson Outfitters, which owns Sahalie and others, were accused of deceptive advertising that claimed their caffeine-impregnated clothing would cause the wearer to lose weight and have less cellulite. There is more here, and for the pointer I thank Glenn Mercer.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

  • A Public-Service Announcement: Twitter Is Dangerous...: Live from Crows Coffee

    J. Bradford DeLong
    1 Oct 2014 | 1:14 pm
    Twitter should only be used for: links to things you think people ought to read. praise of others. laments that you have been misinterpreted, and that all nuance has been lost because of the limits of 140 characters. For example, last week: @jacobwe: New "plagiarism" charges against @FareedZakaria are silly. @jacobwe: Here's the full @FareedZakaria rap sheet. Totally off base, IMO. http://t.co/3livp8ilkl @blippoblappo: Hey Jacob, is Fareed Zakaria plagiarizing in a Slate column "silly" to you?
  • Liveblogging World War I: October 1, 2014: The Battle of Arras

    J. Bradford DeLong
    1 Oct 2014 | 4:42 am
    Battle of Arras (1914) - Wikipedia: The Tenth Army, led by General Louis Maud'huy, attacked advancing German forces on 1 October and reached Douai, where the German 6th Army under Crown Prince Rupprecht counter-attacked, as three corps of the German 1st, 2nd and 7th armies attacked further south. The French were forced to withdraw towards Arras and Lens was occupied by German forces on 4 October. Attempts to encircle Arras from the north were defeated and both sides used reinforcements to try another flanking move further north at the Battle of La Bassée.... The reciprocal flanking moves…
  • Over at Equitable Growth: Ebola Virus Talking Points: Wednesday Focus for October 1, 2014

    J. Bradford DeLong
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:26 pm
    Over at Equitable Growth: Lives lost from Ebola to date are tiny, even in West Africa, compared to HIV, TB, and malaria. Ebola still not (yet) the biggest public health problem in West Africa. Yes, the epidemic will spread to more countries. Ebola will not become the biggest public health problem in West Africa unless deaths reach the high seven figures--which they may: it is highly likely that deaths in the six figures are now baked in the cake. Unless the virus changes dramatically, we are almost surely safe. If you want to worry, worry that influenza or something already airborne will…
  • Noted for Your Afternoon Procrastination for September 30, 2014

    J. Bradford DeLong
    30 Sep 2014 | 12:23 pm
    Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog Afternoon Must-Read: Dan Davies What’s Really Wrong With Bank Supervision - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Afternoon Must-Read: Ryan Avent: Crises: They Let It Happen - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Afternoon Must-Read: Joe Stiglitz: Reconstructing Macroeconomic Theory to Manage Economic Policy - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Afternoon Must-Read: Daron Acemoglu et al.: Offshoring and Skill-Biased Technical Change - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Afternon Must-Read: Martin Wolf: Why Inequality Is Such a Drag on…
  • Over at Equitable Growth: Why Was Bill Gross so Certain Interest Rates Were on the Rise Back in February 2011?: Tuesday Focus for September 30, 2014

    J. Bradford DeLong
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:22 am
    Over at Equitable Growth: Joshua Brown: “Do we need to fire Pimco?”: "In February of 2011, [Bill] Gross loudly proclaimed... [that] PIMCO Total Return had taken its allocation to US Treasury bonds down to zero. As recently as the previous December, PIMCO Total Return had been carrying as much as 22 percent of its AUM in Treasurys.... Gross compounded the move by being extremely vocal about his rationale--he went so far as to call Treasury bonds a 'robbery' of investors given their ultra-low interest rates and the potential for inflation. He talked about the need for investors to…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Dani Rodrik's weblog

  • Back to sanity on economic convergence

    Dani Rodrik
    11 Sep 2014 | 1:50 pm
    It’s been interesting to watch how the conventional wisdom on rapid convergence – developing countries closing the gap with the advanced economies – has been changing over the last few years. It wasn’t so long ago that the world was in the grips of emerging-markets mania, projecting wildly optimistic growth numbers decades into the future. For the last 4-5 years, I have been writing that the pace of convergence we have experienced over the last two decades is unsustainable. There were temporary factors (cheap capital, low interest rates, high commodity prices, rapid Chinese expansion)…
  • My moonlighting career of the last 4 years

    Dani Rodrik
    25 Jun 2014 | 10:20 am
    At long last, Turkey's consitutional court has reversed the conviction of the more than 200 officers previously found guilty in the bogus Sledgehammer coup plot, leading to the release on June 19th of all those in jail (including my father in law). Even though a retrial is to take place, the ruling is a coda to the last four-and-a-half years during which my wife and I moonlighted as criminal investigator, forensic analyst, and political activist. It has been a truly surreal and bizarre experience, given how so many intelligent people bought into -- and refused let go of -- a coup plot…
  • Joining Global Policy as general editor

    Dani Rodrik
    31 May 2014 | 3:37 pm
    David Held is one of the most thoughtful researchers and commentators on global issues, so I am thrilled and honored to be joining forces with him as joint general editor of Global Policy. The journal publishes a range of exciting academic and policy oriented pieces. Check it out here.
  • Erdogan’s Coup

    Dani Rodrik
    27 May 2014 | 5:57 am
    Daron Acemoglu wrote what seemed like a surprising upbeat piece on Turkish democracy a few days ago. His argument seems to be that democracy required power to be wrested away from the secularists who had erected authoritarian structures, and Erdogan had achieved that. Even though, Erdogan’s recent turn to authoritarianism is “lamentable,” it was, Acemoglu claims, a predictable stage in Turkey’s democratic transition. Once Erdogan is gone, the article implies, democracy would be on a stronger footing than ever. There were in fact many other paths that could have proved less costly. The…
  • Today’s structural transformation is a more mixed story than in the past

    Dani Rodrik
    6 May 2014 | 7:00 am
    Guest post by Uma Lele[1] How quickly and how well are developing countries transforming their economies and with what effects on inter-sectorial growth and distribution? A group of us studied structural transformation looking at evidence from 109 countries over 30 years covering a 1980 to 2009 period with a particular focus on China, India, Indonesia and Brazil. We later followed up on the five members of the East African community. Economists following Kuznets, Chennery and Syrquin, Johnston, Mellor and Timmer have described structural transformation (ST) as consisting of: (1) declining…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    99% Invisible

  • 134- The Straight Line Is A Godless Line

    Roman Mars
    30 Sep 2014 | 4:08 pm
    Straight lines form the core of our built environment. Building in straight lines makes predicting costs and calculating structural loads easier, since building materials come in linear units. Straight lines might be logical, predictable, and efficient, but they are also completely “godless”—at least according to Austrian artist and designer Tausendsassa Friedensreich Regentag Dunkelbunt Hundertwasser (which translates to “Multi-Talented Peace-Filled Rainy Day Dark-Colored Hundred Waters” in German). Hundertwasser made a name for himself, so to speak, with his…
  • 133- Port of Dallas

    Roman Mars
    23 Sep 2014 | 9:31 pm
    There’s a photograph we have tacked to our studio at 99% Invisible HQ. The photo, taken 1899, shows three men, all looking very fashionable, suspended mid-air on the lifted arm of a giant dredging machine. There are plenty of images like this from this era— scenes of people standing around proudly as they shaped the earth. And in these old photos there seems to be a real sense of awe and reverence for the marvels of civil engineering. The above photo is a scene from the reversal of the Chicago River (see episode episode #86, true believers!). The reason that photo is famous—or at least…
  • 132- Castle on the Park

    Roman Mars
    16 Sep 2014 | 6:54 am
    On the southwest corner of Central Park West and 106th Street in New York City, there’s an enormous castle. It takes up the whole east end of the block, with its red brick cylindrical turrets topped with gleaming silver cones. All the stained glass windows and intricate stonework make the building looks like something out of a fairytale. This building’s past, however, is not very fairytale-like at all. When it was built in 1887, this castle was the country’s first hospital devoted solely to the treatment of cancer. In the late 1800s, cancer was known to start as a tumor, but they…
  • 131- Genesis Object

    Roman Mars
    10 Sep 2014 | 11:13 am
    In the beginning, there was design. Before any other human discipline, even before the dawn of mankind its self, design was a practice passed down from generation to generation of early humans. Today, everything that has been designed–space ships, buildings, pyramids, weapons, clothing , artwork, everything–can be traced back to a single designed object. The first designed object: the Acheulean hand axe. This episode features designer William Lidwell and UC-Berkeley anthropologist Terrence Deacon.
  • 130- Holdout

    Roman Mars
    2 Sep 2014 | 3:24 am
    Around 2005, a Seattle neighborhood called Ballard started to see unprecedented growth. Condominiums and apartment buildings were sprouting up all over the community which had once been mostly single family homes and small businesses. Around this time, developers offered a woman named Edith Macefield $750,000 dollars for her small house, which was appraised at around $120,000. They wanted to build a shopping mall on the block where Macefield had lived for the last 50 years. Macefield turned down the money. Developers went forward with the shopping mall anyway. The mall enveloped her house on…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Eat the Bankers.com

  • Itamar Simonson – Absolute Value

    Sinclair Noe
    30 Sep 2014 | 5:07 pm
    Listen to the Author Click the banner to buy the boook. Absolute Value: What Really Influences Customers in the Age of (Nearly) Perfect Information by Itamar Simonson & Emanuel Rosen Going against conventional marketing wisdom, Absolute Value reveals what really influences customers today and offers a new framework—the Influence Mix, a totally new way of thinking about consumer decision making and marketing, and about developing more effective business strategies. How people buy things has changed profoundly—yet the fundamental thinking about consumer decision-making and marketing…
  • Third Quarter Wrap

    Sinclair Noe
    30 Sep 2014 | 4:31 pm
    Financial Review DOW – 28 = 17,042 SPX – 5 = 1972 NAS – 12 = 4493 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.51% OIL – 3.14 = 91.43 GOLD – 6.30 = 1209.70 SILV – .49 = 17.07 We wrap up the third quarter of 2014. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 3.4% year to date; and it is up about 11% from the lows of February. Ten of the 30 Dow stocks are up more than 10% year to date. Eight of the Dow stocks are in negative territory for the year, even after adding in divdends. The best performing Dow stocks are Intel (up 37% ytd) and Microsoft (up 28% ytd). The worst performing Dow stocks are Boeing (down…
  • Bring Your Umbrellas

    Sinclair Noe
    29 Sep 2014 | 4:16 pm
    Financial Review DOW – 41 = 17,071 SPX – 5 = 1977 NAS – 6 = 4505 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.49% OIL + .59 = 92.61 GOLD – 4.40 = 1216.00 SILV – .20 = 17.56 Starting with economic data: Consumer spending accelerated in August. Consumer spending rose 0.5% last month after being unchanged in July. Growth in personal income ticked up 0.3%, in line with forecasts. Some of the strength in spending came from a decrease in the saving rate, which eased back from a 1-1/2-year high in July. One area where spending dipped – housing. The National Association of Realtors issued its index of…
  • Thomas Davenport – Keeping Up With the Quants

    Sinclair Noe
    28 Sep 2014 | 9:08 am
    Listen to the Author Click the banner to buy the book. Thomas Davenport and Jinho Kim – Keeping Up with the Quants: Your Guide to Understanding and Using Analytics Why Everyone Needs Analytical Skills Welcome to the age of data. No matter your interests (sports, movies, politics), your industry (finance, marketing, technology, manufacturing), or the type of organization you work for (big company, nonprofit, small start-up)—your world is awash with data. As a successful manager today, you must be able to make sense of all this information. You need to be conversant with analytical…
  • David S. Rose – Angel Investing

    Sinclair Noe
    28 Sep 2014 | 8:57 am
    Listen to the Author Click the banner to buy the book. David S. Rose – Angel Investing: The Gust Guide to Making Money and Having Fun Investing in Startups Every year in America, over 600,000 new businesses start up and hire their first employees. Many will fail, but some of them will become the legendary businesses of the future, transforming industries and making millions for the angel investors who helped fund them in their early days. Angel investing, once the exclusive province of multi-millionaire high-rollers, has now entered the mainstream, with more than $20 billion being…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

  • Now Is a Good Time to Invest in Infrastructure

    iMFdirect
    30 Sep 2014 | 1:01 pm
    By Abdul Abiad, Davide Furceri, and Petia Topalova Infrastructure is the backbone of well-functioning economies. Unfortunately, that backbone is becoming increasingly brittle in a number of advanced economies. For example, there has been a decline in the overall quality of infrastructure in the United States and Germany (Figure 1; see the FT 2014 and ASCE 2013 for more in infrastructure in the U.S., and Der Speigel 2014 and Kunert and Link 2013 for Germany). In many emerging market and developing economies, the expansion of the backbone has not kept pace with the broader economy, and this is…
  • A Tale of Two States—Bringing Back U.S. Productivity Growth

    iMFdirect
    25 Sep 2014 | 8:43 am
    By Roberto Cardarelli and Lusine Lusinyan (Versión en español) Today’s Pop Quiz: What do Oregon and New Mexico have in common? What could possibly link the spectacular vistas of Crater Lake to the glistening White Sands? Answer: One link is these two states have the highest share of computer and electronic production in the entire United States. Think Intel in the Silicon Forest or Los Alamos. They also rank similarly in information technology usage by their businesses. Despite this advantage in cutting edge science, in recent work we show these two states at polar ends in terms of…
  • Where Danger Lurks

    iMFdirect
    22 Sep 2014 | 8:33 am
    By iMFDirect Lurking conjures up images of spies, flashers and other dodgy types.  The IMF’s chief economist Olivier Blanchard takes readers into the dark corners of the financial crisis in his latest article ‘Where Danger Lurks’  in our recent issue of Finance & Development Magazine, and looks at small shocks, sudden stops and liquidity. “We all knew that there were ‘dark corners’ — situations in which the economy could badly malfunction,” Blanchard said. “The main lesson of the crisis is that we were much closer to those dark corners than we thought — and the…
  • Three Key Questions About the Slowdown in Emerging Markets

    iMFdirect
    18 Sep 2014 | 7:40 am
    By Sweta Saxena 1. Are emerging markets slowing down? Yes. They have been slowing down for some time now. GDP growth has declined from 7 percent during the pre-crisis period (2003-8) to 6 percent over the post-crisis period (2010-13) to 5 percent, in our projections, over the next 5 years (2014-18).  This path is illustrated below in Chart 1. This last point stands out. Despite an uneven recovery, growth in advanced economies is projected to eventually recover. Not so for emerging markets. Chart 1 More worrisome is the medium—term outlook, where projections have been revised down serially…
  • Carbon Pricing: Good for You, Good for the Planet

    iMFdirect
    17 Sep 2014 | 8:50 am
    By Ian Parry The time has come to end hand wringing on climate strategy, particularly controlling carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.  We need an approach that builds on national self-interest and spurs a race to the top in low-carbon energy solutions. Our findings here at the IMF—that carbon pricing is practical, raises revenue that permits tax reductions in other areas, and is often in countries’ own interests—should strike a chord at the United Nations Climate Summit in New York next week. Let me explain how. Ever since the 1992 Earth Summit, policymakers have struggled to agree on an…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    WordPress.com News

  • Engaged, Inspired, and Ready to Build a Better Web

    Michelle W.
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:00 am
    Automattic is a distributed company — we all work from wherever we are. Right now, “where we are” is 197 cities around the world: New Orleans, USA. Montevideo, Uruguay. Tokyo, Japan. Vilnius, Lithuania. Once a year, we get together somewhere in the world to meet, work alongside, learn from, and laugh with one another in an exhilarating, exhausting week called the Grand Meetup. This year, 277 Automatticians descended on Park City, Utah, for seven days in mid-September. I flew across the country to spend time in a mountain lodge with a bunch of strangers I met on the…
  • Early Theme Adopters: Eighties

    Ben Huberman
    26 Sep 2014 | 8:00 am
    A theme named after the decade that gave us daring teen comedies and cutting-edge synth pop was bound to be a crowd-pleaser. And indeed, in the few weeks since Eighties was released, it’s garnered tens of thousands of fans who are using it on their sites. Eighties may have been created with personal bloggers in mind, but its balance of striking visuals and flexible design makes it a good choice for anyone looking for a memorable, easy-to-customize website. Here are some of the theme’s most noteworthy features, already expertly used by our favorite Eighties early adopters. A…
  • Longreads’ Best of WordPress, Vol. 5

    Mark Armstrong
    24 Sep 2014 | 10:53 am
    We’re back with another collection of our favorite stories from across all of WordPress! You can find our past collections here — and you can follow Longreads on WordPress.com for more daily reading recommendations. Publishers, writers, keep those stories coming: share links to essays and interviews (over 1,500 words) on Twitter (#longreads) and WordPress.com by tagging your posts longreads. 1. What We Talk About When We Talk About What We Talk About When We Talk About Making (Tim Maly, Quiet Babylon) After a successful “creators’ conference” in Portland, Maly asks some tough…
  • Around the World in Eight Photos

    Krista
    23 Sep 2014 | 8:00 am
    Join us as we explore the world through the street photography tag on WordPress.com. Here you’ll find no airport lineups, no grumpy customs agents, and you never get the middle seat. On belgianstreets, photographer Andy Townend recently shot “stripfeest,” an annual comics festival held in Brussels, Belgium. We loved how Andy captures this young reader fully ensconced in his comic book. An avid photographer, Andy is also a regular contributor to The Daily Post‘s Weekly Photo Challenge. Photo by Andy Townend We were intrigued by the untold stories in Michael…
  • WordPressers Making a Splash

    Ben Huberman
    16 Sep 2014 | 8:00 am
    We might think of the end of summer as a slow news season. Not so for the authors and bloggers we feature today, who’ve been hard at work on some exciting projects recently. Rebecca Hains Writer, professor, and media scholar Rebecca Hains often shares thoughtful posts on her blog, especially on topics revolving around gender and discrimination. Earlier this month, she celebrated the release of The Princess Problem: Guiding Our Girls through the Princess-Obsessed Years (Sourcebooks), her most recent book. A critique of popular culture and the messages it sends to young girls, the…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    EconomicPolicyJournal.com

  • The Time Patrick Buchanan Punched Out a Cop

    1 Oct 2014 | 4:42 am
    By William Norman Grigg The officer who wrote the traffic citation probably didn’t expect the recipient – a tall, athletic college-age male – to respond by punching him in the face. The same was probably true of the second officer who arrived to assist. They managed to subdue the suspect and take him to jail without drawing their guns. Although the pugnacious young man – who had been raised by
  • The Best and Worst States to Earn a Living In

    30 Sep 2014 | 9:12 pm
    Lifehacker writes: Besides being near family and friends, probably the biggest consideration for where to live —at least for those of us who are still working—is whether the area pays enough for you to survive there. We've highlighted a Money Rates analysis of the 10 hardest and 10 best states to make a living here (based on average salary, cost of living, employment rate, and workplace
  • In My Youth, I Probably Would Have Bought a Used Car from Bill Clinton.

    30 Sep 2014 | 6:03 pm
    By Robert J. Ringer It’s amazing how often we automatically assume that someone’s words represent set-in-stone fact. Nothing amazes me more than when someone says, “I know that for a fact,” then, when pressed for his source of information, says that Freddie Fibber told him so. Of course, just because someone tells you something that turns out to be false, it does not necessarily mean that he
  • Gov. Jerry Brown Can't Stop Giving Orders That Expand State Power and Interventions in People's Affairs

    30 Sep 2014 | 4:57 pm
    Gov. Jerry Brown has signed legislation today imposing the nation's first statewide ban on single-use plastic bags. On Sunday, his office announced that the governor signed the wacko “affirmative consent” standard for sexual assault (SEE: NUTSO California Adopts 'Yes Means Yes' Sex-Assault Rule). Brown also, on Sunday, vetoed a bill that would have required police to obtain warrants for
  • Stunning Drone Footage Reveals Just How Massive Hong Kong's Protests Really Are

    30 Sep 2014 | 4:04 pm
    (ht Bionic Mosquito)
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Carl Futia

  • Guesstimates on September 30, 2014

    30 Sep 2014 | 5:59 am
    December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1970-1990. If the ES can show strength above 1980 as I expect then both the Dow and the S&P will be back above their 50 day averages. This would reestablish the bull market up trend and mean that new bull market highs lie ahead. QQQ: Downside target is 94 but a strong market today would be bullish going forward.  TNX (ten year note yield): It looks like an extended up trend in yields has begun. The initial target is 3.00% but I think the 10 year yield will go significantly higher than that over the coming months. Euro-US…
  • Guesstimates on September 29, 2014

    29 Sep 2014 | 5:59 am
    December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1948-1968. Right now it appears that the intermediate term trend in the averages has turned downward. The prognosis now is for a drop to the 200 day moving averages. In the S&P 500 this currently is the 1897 level. QQQ: Downside target is 94.  TNX (ten year note yield): It looks like an extended up trend in yields has begun. The initial target is 3.00% but I think the 10 year yield will go significantly higher than that over the coming months. Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s…
  • Attention Traders

    26 Sep 2014 | 9:50 am
    As you know I have started to post the S&P E-mini trades I make in my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime  on this blog's Twitter feed (at the top of the right hand column). You can follow me here on Twitter for free but keep in mind that the trade postings are delayed 5-10 minutes. Since I started posting these trades in October 2013 they have generated  a 43% return trading a single contract per $10,000 of account equity (a very conservative approach since day trade margin on a single contract is only about $2,700). Since the start of the seminar 42 months ago the trades made in…
  • stocks and interest rates

    26 Sep 2014 | 9:42 am
    I want to make a few comments on interest rates today but before I do I think the situation in the US stock market indices merits close attention.Yesterday the S&P 500 closed below its 50 day moving average. The NYSE advance-decline line had been below its 50 day average for several days previously. The Dow closed just a tad above its 50 day average yesterday. This puts two of my three main trend indicators below their 50 day averages. As a rule this sort of bearish configuration is followed by a return to the level of the 200 day moving averages. The S&P's 200 day average is…
  • Guesstimates on September 26, 2014

    26 Sep 2014 | 6:03 am
    December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1953-1968. Right now it appears that the intermediate term trend in the averages has turned downward. The NYSE advance-decline line and the S&P 500 are both below their 50 day moving averages while the Dow closed yesterday right on its own 50 day average. Moreover the ES spent most of yesterday’s afternoon trading below the lower edge of what I thought was a 1964-68 support zone. The prognosis now is for a drop to the 200 day moving averages. In the S&P 500 this currently is the 1897 level. QQQ: Downside target is 94.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    True Economics

  • 1/10/2014: Russian Manufacturing PMI: September

    30 Sep 2014 | 10:46 pm
    Markit and HSBC released Manufacturing PMI for September for Russia. Here are the headline numbers:Manufacturing PMI declined from 51.0 (signaling already weak expansion) in August to 50.4 in September. This marks 8th consecutive month of index falling within the range that is statistically indifferent from 50.0. Over the last 3 months, the index was trending just above 50.0 line (not statistically significant difference to 50.0). 3mo MA for the index is at 50.8. 3mo MA through June 2014 is at 48.8. 3mo MA through September 2013 was at 49.3. This really does illustrate structural…
  • 1/10/2014: Irish Manufacturing PMI: September

    30 Sep 2014 | 10:32 pm
    Irish Manufacturing PMI released by Investec/Markit today signalled de-acceleration of growth in September.Headline Manufacturing PMI declined from 57.3 in August to 55.7 in September. The reading is still ahead of July 55.4 and remains statistically significant above 50.September correction does not represent a shift in the trend, which remains solidly up:12mo MA is at 54.7 and September reading is ahead of that. Current 3mo MA is at 56.1 and well ahed of previous 3mo MA of 55.5. 3mo MA through September is solidly ahead of the same period readings in 2010-2013.Investec release provides some…
  • 30/9/2014: Have Irish Retail Sales 'regained growth momentum' in August?

    30 Sep 2014 | 2:16 am
    Yesterday, CSO released latest data on Retail Sales in Ireland for August 2014, prompting some media reports that the data is showing the "retail recovery gaining momentum".Here is the actual data for core retail sales (ex-motors):Value of retail sales rose 0.1% m/m in August, down from 0.2% growth in July. This implies loss of the momentum in value of sales, not a gain.Volume of retail sales rose 0.29% m/m in August, up on -0.1 loss in July, implying regaining of the momentum m/m in volume of sales.Value of retail sales rose 2.22% y/y in August after posting 1.22% gain in July, implying some…
  • 29/9/2014: Russian Economy Briefing for IRBA

    29 Sep 2014 | 8:53 am
    Earlier today I gave a brief presentation on the topic of the Recent Developments in Russian Economy. Here are my speaking notes:Economic growth in Russia was running at +0.8% y/y in Q2 2014 versus 0.9% y/y in Q1 2014.At the same time, GDP shrank 0.2% y/y in July 2014 and 0% y/y in August 2014.Taken against the consensus forecast for growth at 0.5% for the full year 2014, this suggests geo-political risks-induced slowdown in the economy of some 0.3-0.4% to-date.Russia's economic outlook for 2014 and 2015-2015 continues to trend down, driven by two core factors:Geopolitical risks of the…
  • 28/9/2014: Political Risks and MENA Equities Valuations

    28 Sep 2014 | 5:47 am
    A quick and accessible writeup on our (still work-in-progress) paper on "Political Risks and Financial Markets: MENA perspective" that uses data from Euromoney Country Risk surveys: http://blog.learnsignal.com/2014/09/26/political-risk-financial-markets/
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

  • Weekly Unemployment Claims: Initial and Continued September 25 2014

    25 Sep 2014 | 2:31 pm
    Today’s jobless claims report showed an increase to both initial and continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims remained below the closely watched 300K level. Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased 12,000 to 293,000 claims from 281,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims increased by 7,000 to 2.439 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.8%.
  • Industrial Production: August 2014

    16 Sep 2014 | 6:31 am
    Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing a decrease in August with total industrial production falling 0.10% since July but still rising 4.12% above the level seen in August 2013. Capacity utilization also declined falling 0.37% from July but rising 1.23% above the level seen in August 2013 to stand at 78.81%
  • Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls and Civilian Unemployment August 2014

    5 Sep 2014 | 11:07 am
    Today's Employment Situation Report indicated that in August, net non-farm payrolls increased by 142,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 134,000 jobs while the civilian unemployment rate declined to 6.1% over the same period.Net private sector jobs increased 0.11% since last month climbing 2.12% above the level seen a year ago and climbing 1.34% above the peak level of employment seen in December 2007 prior to the Great Recession.
  • Employment Situation: Total Unemployment August 2014

    5 Sep 2014 | 10:56 am
    Today's Employment Situation report showed that in August “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers declined to 12.0% while the traditionally reported unemployment rate also fell to 6.1%.The traditional unemployment rate is calculated from the monthly household survey results using a fairly explicit definition of “unemployed” (essentially unemployed and currently looking for full time employment) leaving many workers to be considered effectively “on the margin” either employed in part time work when full time is preferred or simply unemployed and no…
  • Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – August 20 2014

    20 Aug 2014 | 2:48 pm
    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications. The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases. The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The Economic Populist

  • Q2 2014 GDP a Strong 4.6%

    Robert Oak
    29 Sep 2014 | 11:50 pm
    Q2 2014 real GDP was revised to 4.6%, a strong showing not seen since Q4 2011.  Q2 Gross Domestic Product also cancels out the dismal Q1 -2.1% real GDP contraction for the year.  Growth was across the board.  Investment showed large growth.  Personal consumption expenditures increased and were a large component of GDP. Changes in private inventories was a large GDP contribution, but so were exports.  Overall Q2 GDP was a big bounce back from Q1. Share
  • Study Confirms: Offshoring Sucks

    Bud Meyers
    29 Sep 2014 | 2:12 am
    According to a new report, ever since Bill Clinton granted permanent normal trade relations to China, the U.S has lost over 64,000 manufacturing firms and at least 5.8 million manufacturing jobs. Share
  • The Ugly Face of Shareholder Value Exposed By Inversions

    Ralph Gomory
    28 Sep 2014 | 9:42 pm
    Something strange is happening to familiar American companies:  Burger King has become Canadian, Pfizer seems to be trying to be British, and Walgreens has backed away from becoming Swiss only because of the outcry over their plan for a new nationality.  Seeing what our companies are willing to do to escape paying income tax, people are beginning to wonder about how American our American companies are. Share
  • This Is No Economy For Americans

    Paul Craig Roberts
    28 Sep 2014 | 7:56 pm
    This article was originally published on the Paul Craig Roberts website The Dow Jones stock average closed early September Friday at 17,137, despite the fact that the payroll jobs report was a measly 125,000 new jobs for August, an insufficient amount to keep up with the growth in the working age population. Share
  • Rebooting The Economic Populist

    Robert Oak
    28 Sep 2014 | 7:07 pm
    Hello Folks, It's been a while since we've published and we're just now trying to reboot the site and write original material again.  We had two major events which caused the long downtime. Share
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Stock Trading To Go

  • STTG Market Recap September 30, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    30 Sep 2014 | 4:23 pm
    Tuesday was a bit of a sleepy session as indexes ping ponged between small losses and gains. In the end both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ dropped 0.28%. In economic news, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 86 in September from 93.4 the month before and below an expected 92.5. The Chicago PMI for September came in at 60.5, less than the expected 61.9 estimate Original... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Version 2.0 is Here with New $9.99 Unlimited Plan

    Blain Reinkensmeyer
    30 Sep 2014 | 9:14 am
    Today I am extremely pleased to announce that version 2.0 of our trade tools software is now officially live. Log your trades in the cloud, track your mistakes, test new strategies, and improve your trading.I've been on a quest to conduct more meaningful post trade analysis since the beginning of last year. Version 1.0 - 1.6 was a good start, but it had some major drawbacks including being... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap September 29, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    29 Sep 2014 | 4:43 pm
    Indexes gapped down sharply at the open but traders came into the market as the day went on and limited losses. The S&P 500 fell 0.25% and the NASDAQ 0.14%. There was some unrest in Hong Kong which had markets nervous today. The Hang Seng closed 1.9% lower onafter pro-democracy protest in Hong Kong intensified over the weekend. Riot police fired rounds of tear gas and... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap September 26, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    26 Sep 2014 | 5:03 pm
    Indexes rebounded some from extreme oversold conditions Friday as stocks opened slightly up then built on that in the afternoon. The S&P 500 gained 0.86% and NASDAQ 1.02%. There should be a good 3 or so day rally somewhere here in this mess. In economic news, second quarter GDP was revised to a 4.6 percent annualized rate, up from the prior estimate of 4.2 percent, and in line... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap September 25, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    25 Sep 2014 | 5:02 pm
    Thursday was a quite rotten day in the market as we saw broad selling and the market's big cap leader in Apple (AAPL) get taken to the woodshed. Indexes opened negative and they sold off through the entire morning and then flat lined the rest of the session. The S&P 500 fell 1.62% and the NASDAQ 1.94%. Helping to unnerve investors was a report that Russian lawmakers drafted... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Peter Gallagher

  • Evaluation of a “Critical Mass” agreement on agriculture

    pwg
    1 Oct 2014 | 4:55 am
    The stalemate in Geneva on the December 2013 Bali Agreement concerning both Trade Faciliation and agriculture subsidies has revived some interest in the potential for a plurilateral agreement on Agriculture among WTO members. I attach to this brief post a pre-print of the summary that Andy Stoler and I wrote for the journal Global Governance […]
  • Editing Scrivener ‘Sync’ files

    pwg
    28 May 2014 | 4:57 am
    Do you use Scrivener? If so, and you’d like to edit your Scrivener files on another platform such as your iPad, I may have something that will help. I’ve made some ‘bundles’ and themes for the TextMate editor and the Textastic editor on the iPad that display inline annotations, comments and block-quotes in the text. […]
  • The longevity of plain TeX

    pwg
    29 Apr 2014 | 2:52 pm
    Microsoft Word was first released for MS DOS in October, 1983. Some five months earlier, Donald Knuth, a professor of computing at Stanford University, published “The TeX Book.” This was a jokey manual for, and a deft demonstration of, his TeX publishing program whose stable version first appeared in 1982. Each of these contemporary works […]
  • The physical science of climate change

    pwg
    18 Apr 2014 | 7:23 pm
    I’m late finding this Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) report. I include the summary of their findings on the physical science here because they accord with my present assessment. I would have added only one thing to the recitation below. I do not know why the NIPCC omitted it. That is: the IPCC’s […]
  • If you need a word …

    pwg
    11 Nov 2013 | 10:54 pm
    A combined Keyboard Maestro and OSX Automator action to access Princeton’s “WordNet” database. WordNet is a remarkable semantic network of words: not exactly a thesaurus but nonetheless great for hunting down the word you need. Select a word in any Mac application, hit the keyboard trigger you select and the macros pop-up a window with […]
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    WILLisms.com

  • On Socialism. And Wendy Davis.

    Will Franklin
    8 Sep 2014 | 1:55 pm
    Socialism, as defined (above) by Google. Note the synonyms. It's a loaded word in political discourse, evoking emotional reactions in many, but socialism seems to have lately (and quite suddenly) lost all meaning to post-Cold War kids. Indeed, in a recent CBS/New York Times poll, only 16% of millennials could even say what socialism is, while only a still-embarrassing 30% of those aged 30 and up could define it (57% of Tea Partiers knew about socialism, by contrast). Meanwhile, socialism itself has been mainstreamed as perfectly acceptable within the Democratic Party, while those who warn…
  • Texas Political Enthusiasm Gap Continues.

    Will Franklin
    30 May 2014 | 11:04 am
    After the March primary elections in Texas, it was clear that Democrats, particularly Wendy Davis, had a serious problem. An enthusiasm gap. Well, the runoff election this week exposed further weakness in the Democrats' plan to turn Texas blue-- or even a bit purplish-- in 2014. Here's why: (click for larger version) Approximately 200,000 more people voted in the Republican runoff (~750K) in May than voted in the Democrat primary (~550K) in March. Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton each received more votes in the Republican runoff than Wendy Davis earned in the Democrat primary. More people voted for…
  • Not All Bonds Pass: An Analysis Of Eanes I.S.D.'s Failed Bond Proposal.

    Will Franklin
    12 May 2014 | 5:57 pm
    Total new debt for fast growth Texas school districts passed over the weekend: $3,880,386,500 #TxLege— Scott Braddock (@scottbraddock) May 12, 2014 Actually, statewide, the total was more than $6 billion. And, as the Texas Public Policy Foundation noted, prior to this weekend’s bond elections, Texas’ local governments had already amassed almost $325 billion in total debt, enough red ink to soak every man, woman, and child in the Lone Star State with more than $12,000 of local debt obligation. Across Texas over the weekend, small numbers of voters approved billions of dollars in new…
  • Forgotten Time Capsule From 1966 Discovered During Home Renovation. What Happened Next Will Make You Cry.

    Will Franklin
    3 Apr 2014 | 4:50 pm
    First off, apologies for the obnoxious Upworthy/Buzzfeed type of headline. But this really is a bit of a tear-jerker, in many ways. A woman in Arizona created a time capsule in 1966 and buried it in the walls of her home. Nearly fifty years later, it was discovered during a home remodel. A few things about this jumped out at me. First, it is a sad story, obviously, because the woman died tragically in the 1970s, and the husband (who had moved out of the home long ago) had no idea the time capsule even existed until just now. Now, maybe the political contents of the letter might have made the…
  • Paul Krugman Versus Milton Friedman.

    Will Franklin
    3 Apr 2014 | 3:27 pm
    Paul Krugman, from 1998, on the internet: The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants--becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's. Meanwhile, in this National Taxpayers Union video from 1999, Milton Friedman describes what would become Bitcoin more than a decade before it ever existed:…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Political Calculations

  • Does It Pay to Defer Social Security?

    1 Oct 2014 | 1:57 am
    Did you know that if you're willing to defer collecting retirement benefits from Social Security, you can actually boost the amount of your monthly benefit when you actually do start to collect them? The percentage by which you might boost your Social Security check can be pretty substantial, which is what our latest tool can help you determine. Just select the age at which you are currently considering to begin taking Social Security benefits and the age to which you might consider putting off collecting them, and we'll tell you how much bigger your monthly benefits check might be as a…
  • Should Your Team Sign a Superstar?

    30 Sep 2014 | 1:04 pm
    Earlier this year, the hapless Cleveland Cavaliers signed a two-year deal for its former player, NBA superstar LeBron James, for $42.2 million. Was that a smart business decision for the Cavs? To find out, we'll do some of the same math that economist LeRoy Brooks did to estimate that Cleveland's signing of LeBron James could add nearly $500 million to the economy of northeast Ohio. Only instead of considering James' potential impact on the region, we'll just look at the only real revenue that the team itself can fully count upon: its regular season ticket sales. Why just regular season…
  • Split Expectations for the S&P 500

    29 Sep 2014 | 12:48 am
    How many of you recall what we wrote at the beginning of September 2014 about the dynamics of a stock market where investors are shifting their focus from one point in time in the future to another? What we observe is that at present, investors would appear to be focused on 2014-Q4 in setting today's stock prices, which is a relatively recent development - one that has come about largely as a result of better than expected earnings reported by many companies in the S&P 500 in recent months. Prior to that development, investors had been largely focused on 2015-Q2, which is the period during…
  • Wrapping Your Bike Around a Tree... On Purpose

    26 Sep 2014 | 1:18 am
    When you were a kid, did you ever wrap your bike around a tree? You know what we mean. You were out riding around and having fun with a bunch of your friends, and then did something meant to impress them that, in retrospect, turned out to not be very bright thing to have attempted, with the result of that unfortunate life lesson involving extensive road rash treatment for yourself and the need to untangle the frame of your hopelessly damaged bike from the tree trunk where it impacted. Now, what if the frame of your next bike was designed to be wrapped around a tree, post or other object? And…
  • A Snapshot of the Expected Future for Dividends

    25 Sep 2014 | 1:43 am
    Earlier this week, we indicated that we were about to get our first glimpse of the expected future for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share for the third quarter of 2015. We now have it! Here's the snapshot of the amount of cash dividends expected to be paid in each quarter between the present and the 2015-Q3, according to the Chicago Board of Exchange's implied future dividends per share indicators: This chart mixes the historic data for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share recorded by Standard & Poor [Excel spreadsheet] from 2013-Q1 through 2014-Q2 with the expected future…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Calafia Beach Pundit

  • A pause for home prices

    30 Sep 2014 | 2:26 pm
    According to Case-Shiller, housing prices in 20 large metropolitan areas fell, on average, in the months of May, June, and July, following over two years of steady and impressive gains (the index is calculated monthly using a three-month moving average and published with a two month lag). I doubt this is the beginning of another major downturn in prices—it's much more likely to be just a "pause that refreshes." That's because mortgage rates remain very affordable, the economy is still growing, personal incomes are still growing, and the Fed hasn't tightened monetary policy. (see charts…
  • Argentina: a slow-motion train wreck

    25 Sep 2014 | 6:22 pm
    The Argentine economy is in recession, the central bank's forex reserves are dangerously low, having fallen by almost half in the past few years, and inflation is raging. Worst of all, the government is doing everything wrong. Its peronist/populist president is completely out of touch with how economies work, and its economy minister is a young, starry-eyed socialist and former economics professor who wouldn't be able to get a teaching job in the U.S. to save his life. Under Argentina's pegged exchange rate system, a loss of reserves is an unambiguous sign of capital flight: more money…
  • The bond market is not worried about the economy

    25 Sep 2014 | 11:30 am
    A week ago I argued that there was "no need to fear Fed tightening," because both bond yields and the Fed were reacting to declining risk aversion and an improving economic outlook. My point: higher yields are not a threat to growth, they are a by-product of an improved growth outlook.This week I change the focus slightly, and look at the behavior of Treasury yields during business cycles. What has happened this year is very typical of what happens as the business cycle matures. The yield curve has flattened somewhat, but it is nowhere near the flatness that typically presages a recession.The…
  • Business investment makes a comeback

    25 Sep 2014 | 9:53 am
    After being relatively flat for most of 2013, capital goods orders—a good proxy for business investment—have rebounded strongly this year. Today we learned that August orders exceeded expectations (+0.6% vs. +0.4%), and the decline in July orders was revised down from -0.5% to just -0.2%. On a year over year basis, orders rose 7.5% through August.This series suffers from a mysteriously deficient seasonal adjustment which can be largely corrected by looking at the 3-mo. moving average, which I've shown in the chart above. Using the smoothed series, we find that the 6-mo. annualized gain in…
  • Real signs of real growth

    23 Sep 2014 | 12:00 pm
    Here is a collection of charts that feature real, physical measures of the growth of the economy. They are all consistent with an economy that continues to expand.Truck Tonnage. This data is collected by the American Trucking Association. It measures total for-hire truck tonnage, and is seasonally adjusted. Truck tonnage in August reached a new all-time high, and is up 4.5% over the past year. The top chart shows the index from 2007 on, while the bottom chart shows the index from 1973 on, and compares it to the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index. The point of this latter chart is to…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Donald Marron

  • The $300 Billion Question: How Should Congress Budget for Federal Lending Programs?

    Donald
    29 Sep 2014 | 9:48 am
    Lending programs create special challenges for federal budgeting. So special, in fact, that the Congressional Budget Office estimates their budget effects two different ways. According to official budget rules, taxpayers will earn more than $200 billion over the next decade from new student loans, mortgage guarantees, and the Export-Import Bank. According to an alternative that CBO favors, taxpayers will lose more than $100 billion. Those competing estimates pose a $300 billion question: Which budgeting approach is best? As I document in a new report and policy brief, the answer is neither…
  • Four Myths about Entrepreneurship

    Donald
    17 Sep 2014 | 1:40 pm
    Dane Stangler at the Kauffman Foundation debunks four myths about entrepreneurship: Spoiler: 20-somethings make headlines, but founders in their 30s and 40s are more important. (Disclosure: The Kauffman Foundation funds some of my research at the Urban Institute.)
  • Does the Export-Import Bank Make or Lose Money?

    Donald
    10 Sep 2014 | 9:00 am
    Suppose your aunt decides to start a business making pizza ovens. She will design and build the ovens, and her daughter will manage operations. A bank is ready to lend her $100,000 to get started, but it wants someone to co-sign and be on the hook if she misses any payments. She offers to pay you $6,000 to do so. A business-savvy friend tells you that missed payments on such a loan average $2,000, usually less, occasionally much more. He also reports that $7,000 is the going rate for co-signing. Those insights spark lively family debate. Your aunt believes her proposal is a no-brainer. She…
  • How Economic Insights Shaped the Web Economy

    Donald
    30 Aug 2014 | 2:22 am
    In this TEDx talk, Bob Litan shows how economic insights shaped the web economy, from dating to search to travel to logistics.
  • Who Owns the Right to Recline? Property Rights in the Sky

    Donald
    26 Aug 2014 | 7:57 am
    “On Sunday, a United Airlines flight was forced to divert after two passengers got into an argument over the Knee Defender, a $22 gadget that stops the person in front of the user from reclining,” report Alex Davies and Julie Zeveloff at Business Insider. By packing people in tight spaces, air travel naturally sparks conflict over property rights. Who gets the overhead space? Or, in this case, who owns the right to recline? Users of the Knee Defender believe they do. Deploying the gadget is thus no different from a homeowner putting up a fence to keep out unwanted intrusions.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Supply and Demand (in that order)

  • Real PCE in August

    29 Sep 2014 | 6:07 am
    Real personal consumption expenditures per capita grew a lot from July to August (0.5 percent in one month; annualized that's 5.7 percent). The year-over-year growth is 1.9 percent; about a quarter of that growth occurred in one month. Over the prior three years, real PCE per capita had been growing 1.3 percent per year.
  • Some fallacies never die

    5 Sep 2014 | 6:08 pm
    Posted over a year ago as Modern Wage Economics: Too Subtle for the Blogosphere?, but some fallacies never die:Our economy uses a lot less labor than it did 10 years ago, and for good reason people are interested in the relative importance of supply and demand factors for explaining what happened to the quantity of labor.Naturally, a supply-demand decomposition exercise is enhanced by looking at both the quantity and price of labor, also known as the wage rate. That's why my book on the recession starts off with various indicators of wage rates and their dynamics (see chapter 2 beginning on…
  • Don't forget agricultural employment

    5 Sep 2014 | 6:45 am
    The payroll report shows +142k (change from July to Aug), which seems low, but note that it excludes self-employed and agricultural workers. If you add those, it's +299k primarily because (seasonally adjusted) agricultural employment increased so much.
  • Real consumption

    4 Sep 2014 | 7:20 pm
    per person, it was less in July than each of the prior 4 months.
  • My one cent

    3 Sep 2014 | 7:19 pm
    Apple refused to list my book for $3.00 -- they listed it at $2.99.Amazon went with the $3.00 price for about a week, and then cut it to $2.99.BN is still charging $3.00.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • “An exact fishy test”

    Andrew
    27 Sep 2014 | 6:13 am
    Macartan Humphreys supplied this amusing demo. Just click on the link and try it—it’s fun! Here’s an example: I came up with 10 random numbers: > round(.5+runif(10)*100) [1] 56 23 70 83 29 74 23 91 25 89 and entered them into Macartan’s app, which promptly responded: Unbelievable! You chose the numbers 56 23 70 83 29 74 23 91 25 89 But these are clearly not random numbers. We can tell because random numbers do not contain patterns but the numbers you entered show a fairly obvious pattern. Take another look at the sequence you put in. You will see that the number of…
  • MA206 Program Director’s Memorandum

    Andrew
    26 Sep 2014 | 6:22 am
    A couple years ago I gave a talk at West Point. It was fun. The students are all undergraduates, and most of the instructors were just doing the job for two years or so between other assignments. The permanent faculty were focused on teaching and organizing the curriculum. As part of my visit I sat in on an intro statistics class and did a demo for them (probably it was the candy weighing but I don’t remember). At that time I picked up an information sheet for the course: “Memorandum for Academic Year (AY) 13-02 MA206 Students, United States Military Academy.” Lots of…
  • Free Stan T-shirt to the first “little twerp” who does a (good) Bayesian analysis of Jon Lee Anderson’s height

    Andrew
    25 Sep 2014 | 1:55 pm
    I’d like to see a Stan implementation of the analysis presented in this comment by Gary from a year and a half ago. The post Free Stan T-shirt to the first “little twerp” who does a (good) Bayesian analysis of Jon Lee Anderson’s height appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • “Derek Jeter was OK”

    Andrew
    25 Sep 2014 | 12:56 pm
    Tom Scocca files a bizarrely sane column summarizing the famous shortstop’s accomplishments: Derek Jeter was an OK ballplayer. He was pretty good at playing baseball, overall, and he did it for a pretty long time. . . . You have to be good at baseball to last 20 seasons in the major leagues. . . . He was a successful batter in productive lineups for many years. . . . He was not Ted Williams or Rickey Henderson. Spectators did not come away from seeing Derek Jeter marveling at the stupendous, unimaginable feats of hitting they had seen. But he did lots and lots of damage. He got many big…
  • Waic for time series

    Andrew
    25 Sep 2014 | 6:24 am
    Helen Steingroever writes: I’m currently working on a model comparison paper using WAIC, and would like to ask you the following question about the WAIC computation: I have data of one participant that consist of 100 sequential choices (you can think of these data as being a time series). I want to compute the WAIC for these data. Now I’m wondering how I should compute the predictive density. I think there are two possibilities: (1) I compute the predictive density of the whole sequence (i.e., I consider the whole sequence as one data point, which means that n=1 in Equations (11) –…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Businomics Blog

  • Correlation and Causation: A Great Reminder

    Bill Conerly
    21 Sep 2014 | 10:32 pm
    We've heard it (and I've said it) thousands of times: correlation does not mean causation. Yet we still make the mistake (and I do mean "we"). Tyler Vigen has developed a correlation machine. He has scraped lots and lots of data series, then gone searching for correlation. Take a look at the Spurious Correlations website, and watch Tyler's video down at the bottom. (Hat tip: Greg Mankiw)
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    TheMoneyIllusion

  • Last reply to Matt Bruenig

    ssumner
    30 Sep 2014 | 7:16 pm
    Matt seems to have forgotten to take his meds, as his newest post is one of the silliest I’ve ever read.  Here’s an example: War On Poverty Backtrack You’ll recall Grandpa Sumner’s initial argument for why transfers don’t net reduce poverty went like this: Since the War On Poverty started, poverty hasn’t fallen at all. I know this because aint that what them dat gum progressive bloggers say? Because poverty hasn’t declined, then that means anti-poverty transfer incomes only crowd out market incomes. Else, you would have seen poverty decline. Therefore transfers don’t…
  • Matt Bruenig trashes his fellow progressives

    ssumner
    30 Sep 2014 | 11:41 am
    Sometimes it’s best to just cut your losses after making a silly mistake.  Matt Bruenig has decided to double down on some deeply flawed arguments, which I criticized in an earlier post.  He begins by showing that he knows nothing about my blog, and ends by demonstrating that he knows nothing about my views on libertarianism. But let’s focus on the middle part: The primary thrust of Sumner’s post is to say that, because I do not have a libertarian-wired brain (read: smart brain), it doesn’t occur to me that poverty-reducing transfer programs can have dynamic effects that…
  • Krugman reviews Madrick

    ssumner
    30 Sep 2014 | 9:08 am
    Here are the first two paragraphs of Paul Krugman’s review of a new book by NYT writer Jeff Madrick: The economics profession has not, to say the least, covered itself in glory these past six years. Hardly any economists predicted the 2008 crisis — and the handful who did tended to be people who also predicted crises that didn’t happen. More significant, many and arguably most economists were claiming, right up to the moment of collapse, that nothing like this could even happen. Furthermore, once crisis struck economists seemed unable to agree on a response. They’d had 75 years…
  • Are Americans Maoists?

    ssumner
    28 Sep 2014 | 1:46 pm
    I’ve done many posts explaining why public opinion polls of Americans on numerical questions are utterly meaningless.  The public is horrible at math, and their answers tell us almost nothing about what they actually believe.  One bogus poll that keeps getting touted by liberals claims to show that the American public has views on income distribution that are far to the left of those of Mao, perhaps even to the left of Pol Pot.  I don’t really know why liberals want to tout these poll results, as if this sort of policy regime were actually implemented we would all starve to…
  • Sorcerer

    ssumner
    28 Sep 2014 | 1:41 pm
    Even though I’m a huge movie buff, I rarely make film recommendations.  That’s mostly because everyone has different taste, and I like lots of boring artsy films that many of my readers would hate.  But Sorcerer is an exception.  Friday night I joined a sellout crowd at Harvard, and then afterwards we were entertained for an hour by the director (William Friedkin), who had lots of great stories.  The film has been beautifully restored, and Friedkin insists the visuals and sound are much better than even the original 1977 release (which I saw twice in 1977, something I rarely…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Jesse's Café Américain

  • Why China Is the Golden Dragon In the Room That So Few Will Even Discuss

    30 Sep 2014 | 4:20 pm
    This analysis originally appeared at the USAGold website. Why China thinks gold is the buy of the century   by Michael J. Kosares                    Let's start with some big, but digestible numbers: $3,950,000,000,000 = China’s total foreign exchange reserves
  • Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - End of September, Hello Non-Farm Payrolls

    30 Sep 2014 | 1:14 pm
    I have included the warehouse action from yesterday in both gold and silver so we can see how things stand at the end of the month, heading into October. Gold is flowing from West to East.  The trading action in bullion is already there. The Comex is a quaint artifact of the era of market manipulation.  It is little more than a shell game. Have a pleasant evening.
  • SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Skittish

    30 Sep 2014 | 1:08 pm
    There is no recovery. The policy errors that are driving these markets are going to take a toll. Have a pleasant evening.  
  • Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Non Farm Payrolls On Friday, End of Month Tomorrow

    29 Sep 2014 | 1:37 pm
    "Heroes. Victims. Gods and human beings. All throwing shapes, every one of them Convinced he's in the right, all of them glad To repeat themselves and their every last mistake, No matter what." Seamus Heaney, The Cure At Troy Today was the first position day for the October metals contracts.  First delivery will begin on Wednesday, 1 October. China will go on a one week national holiday for
  • SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Late Day Buying in Weak Markets

    29 Sep 2014 | 1:24 pm
    "Suddenly, abused and battered wives or children, the unemployed, the depressed and mentally ill, the illiterate, the lonely, those grieving for lost loved ones, those crushed by poverty, the terminally ill, those fighting with addictions, those suffering from trauma, those trapped in menial and poorly paid jobs, those whose homes are in foreclosure or who are filing for bankruptcy because
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • The deficit: blame foreigners

    chris dillow
    30 Sep 2014 | 5:57 am
    For a long time, I've argued that government borrowing is due is large part to the corporate sector's financial surplus - its excess of retained profits over capital spending. However, today's GDP figures show that something else is also happening. These show that the corporate sector's surplus has disappeared; in fact, in Q2, companies in aggregate ran a small deficit. However, although the declining corporate surplus has been accompanied by falling government borrowing, the latter is still large. Why? Statistically speaking, the main counterpart to government borrowing is no…
  • When failure is success

    chris dillow
    29 Sep 2014 | 5:35 am
    Here's a glorious example of the media's bubblethink: the Guardian's political reporters describe Osborne's stewardship of the economy as the Tories "strongest card." Let's just remind ourselves of the facts. Back in June 2010 the OBR forecast (pdf) that real GDP would grow by a cumulative 8.2% in between 2010 and 2013. In fact, it grew by only 3.1%. Partly because of this, the deficit is much larger now than expected. In 2010, the OBR forecast that PSNB in 2014-15 would be £37bn, or 2.1% of GDP. It now expects it to be £83.9bn, or 5.5% of GDP. This poses the…
  • On correlation neglect

    chris dillow
    27 Sep 2014 | 2:11 am
    In the Times, Danny Finkelstein expresses disquiet about Operation Yewtree: "My word against some bloke after more than 20 years is good enough for you?" [Liz Kershaw] asked. The police wouldn't need other evidence to charge?"Well" replied the officer. "If it was just one girl obviously the Crown Prosecution Serivce would probably throw it out. But if more than one girl came forward, well..."The clearest statement I have ever seen of the dubious policy of using legally weak individual allegations to support each other. He's touching upon a widespread…
  • Bubblethink

    chris dillow
    26 Sep 2014 | 6:13 am
    In the Times, Phillip Collins says: Mr Miliband...would rather forget about the deficit and talk about something else. Alas, this is not a viable choice because reality keeps forcing its way in. Whoa there. Who's reality? It not the reality of the markets, where real gilt yields are negative and there's a shortage of safe assets. It's not the reality of an economy where the deficit is largely due to still-high unemployment and weak incomes growth. It's not the reality of an economy that's "crying out for public stimulus". And it's not the reality where our…
  • Mansion Tax: bugs & features

    chris dillow
    25 Sep 2014 | 6:47 am
    Some of the opposition to Labour's proposed mansion tax seems to me to be confusing bugs with features. For example, in the Times (£) Janice Turner claims the tax will hit "shabby family houses" which have soared in price because of the property explosion. But this is precisely the virtue of land taxes. London's house prices have soared for several reasons, but none of them because of the efforts of their owners. It's fair to tax people if they reap a benefit with no effort. And as for £2m being "shabby", Hugo Rifkind's tweet was right: Anybody who says…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

  • Osborne's deficit plan gets lost in the statistical fog

    David Smith
    28 Sep 2014 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Maybe Ed Miliband should have talked about the budget deficit, and not just for the obvious reasons. Had the Labour leader done so he could have...
  • Weak pay and low inflation mean no rate hikes just yet

    David Smith
    21 Sep 2014 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. After all the excitement - and for me the right result - time to return to some normal but rather interesting fare. While we have been...
  • A different kind of politics - and not in a good way

    David Smith
    16 Sep 2014 | 8:45 am
    The Scottish referendum campaign has engaged people in politics as never before, it is said, and this is a welcome and different kind of politics. It is, of course, welcome that voters in Scotland are engaged and mainly intend to...
  • Don't go, but Scotland needs the UK a lot more than the UK needs Scotland

    David Smith
    14 Sep 2014 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. With days to go, it it is still not clear whether Scotland will avoid the economic car-crash that would follow independence. It could still, as Deutsche...
  • An independent Scotland would be poorer, more unstable and fiscally weak

    David Smith
    7 Sep 2014 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. In 11 days, voters in Scotland will decide on whether their country should go it alone. The latest Sunday-Times YouGov poll shows a two-point lead for...
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Top Gun Financial Planning

  • Riding The Bull

    Greg Feirman
    3 Sep 2014 | 7:47 am
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. Those of you who have followed me over the years know that I was slow to warm to this bull market.  However, in the last year I have evolved and come to embrace it.  I stopped trying to short it (see “The Loser’s Strategy”, August 4, 2013) and decided to invest more in line with what is…
  • Interview With Mint.com

    Greg Feirman
    5 Aug 2014 | 7:10 am
    Check out this short interview I did with Mint.com.  
  • It’s A Bull Market

    Greg Feirman
    16 Jul 2014 | 4:12 am
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. The S&P is up another 1% since I last checked in in early June (“That 2013 Feeling”, June 9) and what I said then still applies.  The path of least resistance continues to be higher. The stock market sold off yesterday on the following comments by Fed Chair Janet Yellen: Valuation metrics in…
  • That 2013 Feeling

    Greg Feirman
    8 Jun 2014 | 7:41 pm
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. Only a few weeks ago the S&P seemed stuck below 1900 and market sentiment had turned bearish.  Star hedge fund manager David Tepper punctuated the bearishness when he told an audience full of investors at the SALT Conference in Las Vegas “Don’t be too frickin’ long”. A few weeks…
  • The Carnage Beneath The Surface

    Greg Feirman
    10 May 2014 | 2:14 pm
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. Despite the relatively muted action in the major market indexes something big is happening beneath the surface.  While the Dow and S&P are within striking distance of their all time highs, many of the leading stocks from last year have suffered a beating in the last couple of months.  A chart from BeSpoke…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Project Syndicate RSS-Feed

  • Debeaking the Vultures

    Joseph E. Stiglitz, et al.
    1 Oct 2014 | 5:30 am
    In the midst of the ongoing dispute between Argentina and the “vulture funds” that hold its bonds, a broad consensus has emerged concerning the need for sovereign-debt restructuring mechanisms. Otherwise, US court rulings in the vultures' favor will give free rein to those who would sabotage future restructurings.
  • Brazil’s Cautious Voters

    Jorge G. Castañeda
    1 Oct 2014 | 4:30 am
    Brazil's presidential election has come alive as the mixed-race Marina Silva mounts a serious challenge to President Dilma Rousseff. But, despite Brazil's economic troubles, corruption scandals, and recent World Cup humiliation, Rousseff's incumbency advantage is likely to be decisive.
  • Solving Europe’s Credibility Problem

    Jean Pisani-Ferry
    30 Sep 2014 | 1:50 pm
    As the eurozone debates how to escape the stagnation trap in which it finds itself, one question has become increasingly important: Can governments credibly commit to trim public spending in the future while avoiding immediate cuts? Fortunately, the answer is yes: Fiscal accommodation now does not rule out consolidation later.
  • Markets’ Rational Complacency

    Nouriel Roubini
    30 Sep 2014 | 1:00 pm
    A century ago, financial markets priced in a very low probability that a major conflict would occur, blissfully ignoring the risks that led to World War I until late in the summer of 1914. Back then, markets were poor at correctly pricing low-probability, high-impact tail risks; they still are.
  • China’s Internet Revolution

    Jiang Qiping, et al.
    30 Sep 2014 | 7:37 am
    As Internet adoption reaches critical mass in China, it will help to unleash the economy’s productivity-growth potential. Indeed, the Internet can help China attain its goal of developing a sustainable economic model that can lift the country to high-income status.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    OilPrice.com Daily News Update

  • Who Is Buying The Islamic State’s Illegal Oil?

    30 Sep 2014 | 3:31 pm
    In June 2014, computer files captured from a courier for the Islamic State shortly after the fall of Mosul revealed that the group had assets of $875 million, largely gained in the sacking and looting of Mosul and its central bank. The size of the group’s bank account has now risen to an estimated $2 billion dollars, thanks in part to revenues from ransom paid for kidnapped foreigners and more pillaging. However, oil remains the group’s primary source of income.The 11 oil fields that IS controls in Iraq and Syria have made it a largely…Read more...
  • New York State’s Solar-Friendly Policies Could Become a Model

    30 Sep 2014 | 3:22 pm
    New York State is transforming itself into a model of solar power.In April, Governor Andrew Cuomo committed $1 billion to NY-Sun Initiative, a relatively new incentive program for solar deployment. The program provides funding incentives that decrease over time as the industry scales up. As a result, about 316 megawatts of solar have already been installed or are under contract. Cuomo also signed a bill that cuts property taxes for buildings that add solar panels.Perhaps more importantly, New York State is constructing a cutting edge electricity…Read more...
  • Three Things To Know About The India-Australia Uranium Deal

    30 Sep 2014 | 3:03 pm
    On Friday August 5, India and Australia concluded an important energy deal that will seek to address looming issues facing both countries. The formalization of the agreement marks the conclusion of bilateral talks dating back two years and will offer enormous benefits to both India and Australia.1. India is actively seeking to address energy shortfallsIndia has a stated goal of raising its nuclear energy capacity to 63,000 MW by 2032 by adding $85 billion worth of reactors. Nuclear power, while controversial in some areas, is critical to India’s…Read more...
  • The Black Sea: A New Frontier for Energy Geopolitics?

    30 Sep 2014 | 2:42 pm
    Halliburton may be interested in Romania’s offshore oil fields, but it could face a challenge from a bolstered Russian presence in the Black Sea.Russia’s claim to the Crimean Peninsula, and collocated military assets, pose a notable security threat to the longstanding maritime division of the Black Sea. The Exclusive Economic Zones, as well as territorial and contiguous zones with oil and gas resources, are possibly vulnerable to Russian interference. Even the threat of military presence may increase investment risks in the Romanian…Read more...
  • Solar Could Be The Largest Source Of Energy By 2050

    30 Sep 2014 | 2:30 pm
    Solar energy could be the world’s largest source of power by 2050, providing more than a quarter of the Earth’s energy, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).A report from the Paris-based agency forecasts that photovoltaic (PV) plants could generate up to 16 percent of the Earth’s electricity,  while another report says solar thermal electricity (STE), which concentrates sunlight with mirrors to produce steam energy, could provide 11 percent.The total would push solar energy beyond all other sources of electricity,…Read more...
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    zentrader.ca

  • Astrology Update: October’s Lunar Eclipse

    karen starich
    30 Sep 2014 | 11:12 pm
    The Markets The volatility has picked up in the markets.  Last week the Nasdaq timing signal turned bearish for the long term.  The Dow however remains bullish for the long term.  We would need to see 2-3 weeks of continued selling pressure for the Dow to also signal a bearish trend.  In light of my projections for the first week of November I believe we will see the Dow also turn bearish the week of October 20th. Bill Gross’s departure from Pimco and move to Janus is a big deal.  The markets rebounded on Friday with the announcement but in my view there is more trouble to…
  • Know When To Fix A Broken Stock

    chris
    28 Sep 2014 | 5:00 am
    By Chris Ebert A recurring theme has been presented here over the past several years: the performance of certain simple option strategies quite often gives an accurate picture of the mood of the stock market. The mood of traders – the emotion – does not determine the future of stock prices, but it surely determines how traders are likely to react to future news. As with any indicator, be it a Simple Moving Average (SMA), a Relative Strength Index (RSI), an Elliott Wave or a Fibonacci Retracement, the use of options as an indicator is not useful at predicting the future. But, one does not…
  • VIX’s Rise Could Mean Buying Opportunity

    jeff pierce
    26 Sep 2014 | 10:46 am
    By Jeff Pierce Both the daily and weekly chart of the VIX are are levels which in the past have been buying opportunities. While there are some bearish divergences setting up on the indexes it’s too early to tell if this is the end of the bull and for now the best the trend is up.  I continue to believe that before this bull is over we’ll see a fury of buying to the upside in a blow off top. Having said that I’ve slowed my new buys on the momentum stocks and I’m not using margin at all because the risk of a further sell off remains. Vix Daily   Vix Wkly
  • Minimum Requirement For A Bear Market

    chris
    21 Sep 2014 | 5:00 am
    By Chris Ebert The best time to prepare for a Bear market, as with any foreseeable disaster, is long before it strikes. If one waits for word of a Bear market to be broadcast on the evening news, chances are good that it is already too late to prepare. It’s too late to build a storm cellar when the tornado sirens are blaring, too late to get off the volcano when the pyroclastic flows have begun, and too late to buy bread and milk when the blizzard winds are howling. The best one can normally hope for, when a disaster is already underway, is to mitigate the damage; and that includes stock…
  • Financial Astrology – Market Manipulation

    Jeff Pierce
    17 Sep 2014 | 7:42 pm
    By Astrology Traders My prediction In the July 27th update for trouble at the CME September 1st has come to fruition as reported in an article posted from Zerohedge on September 1st.   To sum up the article, Nanex’s Eric Hunsader confirmed the participation of central banks involvement in market manipulation of the S&P futures, known as the E-mini, in both the futures and option form, in addition to the well-known central bank trading in Interest Rates, TSY and FX products.  In order to incentivize the banks the CME is paying them tiny rebates on every trade. The exposure seems…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    MartinKronicle - Michael Martin

  • Managing the Disney Call option Position – Part 2

    Michael Martin
    25 Sep 2014 | 12:36 am
    This lesson discusses a few of the choices you could make if you are still Long the DIS JAN15 70 Calls. If you missed that video, you can see it below or click here to see the original post from October 2013. Similar Posts: How Gold Is Being Traded Now One Way To Make More $$$ in 2010: Follow-Up Better The Touch, The Feel of Trading Cotton Spreads How To Short Sell Gold $GC_F UK Election Aftermath GBP FXB
  • The Most Powerful Trader in the World

    Michael Martin
    30 Jan 2014 | 11:28 am
    Once you’ve mastered putting in protective stops, you’ll feel empowered. Why? Because at that point you are emotionally balanced and are WILLING to transfer the risk to someone else and exit with a small loss. You have emotional and financial understanding that trading is a process and that any one trade is meaningless over 1,000s of trades. At that point you have personal power in that trading is just one part of your day and your life is abundant. And you don’t need to tell anyone about your trading. You’re in love with your process – be it mechanical or…
  • Anatomy of a Trader’s Mindset

    Michael Martin
    22 Jan 2014 | 8:54 am
    I had a great chat with one of my students last week and something hit me from our conversation. Like me (and probably you) he’s an avid reader. It was such a great conversation, I came away with something… We were talking about the most recent assignment that he was working on and he got WAAAAY off the subject by telling me all the fundamentals of the company etc “In 2002, they listed on the FTSE and their main product was…” and I was like “Whoa, what the heck does 2002 have to do with today and trading in the ever-evolving moment of NOW in January…
  • Keep Calm and Enter Your Stops

    Michael Martin
    14 Jan 2014 | 1:14 am
    The Sugar trade I mentioned a few weeks ago that almost tripled one of my accounts had a lot of things going on inside it. But making the money was a symptom of several factors, some of which might surprise you. Of course, it goes without saying that I was powerless over the move in Sugar itself, so the best thing I could have done is what I did do: add some risk to my account and enter a protective stop to knock me out if I was wrong. I should also add that I had no clue the trade would develop even remotely the way it did when it started out. Technology-wise, I used EOD data from my broker…
  • Pro Traders Have a Daily Trading Plan

    Michael Martin
    4 Jan 2014 | 12:19 am
    Emotional Systems RuleSimilar Posts: SEC Short Selling Rule More Conflict Within SEC On Short Selling Rule The Better Part of Valor — and Your Trading System — is Discretion This Emotional Life tonight on PBS One Man’s Trash Is Another Man’s Treasure Embed This Image On Your Site (copy code below): Courtesy of: MartinKronicle
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    NEW ECONOMY

  • Workers in Maine Buy Out Their Jobs, Set an Example for the Nation

    Rob Brown, Noemi Giszpenc, Brian Van Slyke
    30 Sep 2014 | 4:55 pm
    This article originally appeared at Truthout. The Board of Island Employee Cooperative. Photo by Island Employee Cooperative / Facebook. On remote Deer Isle, Maine, the movement for a more just and democratic economy won a major victory this summer. More than 60 employees of three retail businesses­—Burnt Cove Market, V&S Variety and Pharmacy, and The Galley—banded together to buy the stores and create the largest worker cooperative in Maine and the second largest in New England. [The] jobs are democratically owned by the people who work and live there. Now the workers own and run…
  • Nurses’ Unions Send Thousands to Climate March, Call Global Warming a “Health Care Emergency”

    Yessenia Funes
    24 Sep 2014 | 11:50 am
    Photo by Yessenia Funes. This story is part of the Climate in Our Hands collaboration between Truthout and YES! Magazine. When Hurricane Sandy hit New York’s Bellevue Hospital and cut off its power, Anne Boyé, a registered nurse and president of the union’s Health and Hospitals Corporation Executive Council, helped evacuate more than 740 patients. Meanwhile, Judy Sheridan-Gonzalez and her team of nurses were walking door to door through the floods with flashlights on their heads, determined to find and save victims of the storm. Climate change is a public health care emergency. “The…
  • Stanford's Coal Divestment: Meet 2 Students—And 1 President—Who Made It Happen

    Dana Drugmand
    18 Sep 2014 | 12:20 pm
    Erica Knox: Leveraging privilege Stanford University student Erica Knox went to see Bill McKibben’s “Do the Math” tour in November 2012. That’s when McKibben and 350.org launched a divestment movement to address climate change and challenge the power of the fossil fuel industry. Knox has been involved with divestment group Fossil Free Stanford ever since. “It’s definitely the group on campus where I feel like I’m actually creating change,” she said. Modeled after the anti-apartheid movement of the 1970s and ’80s, the divestment campaign pressures universities and other…
  • Occupy Offshoot Cancels $4 Million in Predatory Student Loans—and Starts a Debtors Union

    Liz Pleasant
    17 Sep 2014 | 7:20 am
    Photo by Shutterstock. Nathan Hornes was sitting on the couch watching Maury when he saw the ad for Everest College. Owned by the for-profit education company Corinthian Colleges, Inc., Everest commercials are known to target low-income people, promising a flexible education and, through it, jobs that earn more than minimum wage. They're often aggressive, the actors calling viewers out for being lazy and then daring them to live up to their full potential. Hornes was an easy target. “The first commercial I saw was the girl and she’s like ‘Oh, you’ve got to get off the couch,’” he…
  • NY Unions Will Bring Fresh Ideas about Jobs, Energy to Historic Climate March

    Abby Scher
    14 Sep 2014 | 12:00 am
    A member of New York's transit workers union attends Occupy Wall Street in September 2011. Photo by Timothy Krause / Flickr. This story is part of the Climate in Our Hands collaboration between Truthout and YES! Magazine. New York's unions are digging deep to support the march that calls on world leaders to take action to avert catastrophic climate change. There is a grinding nature to labor solidarity. Having never been active in a union before, I never experienced it until becoming the National Writers Union rep to organizing meetings for the Sept 21 Climate March happening in New York City…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Central Bank News

  • Central Bank News Link List - Sep 30, 2014 - Dollar gains bolster Fed’s patience on interest rates

    centralbanknews.info
    30 Sep 2014 | 12:18 pm
    Here's today's Central Bank News' link list click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.Dollar gains bolster Fed’s patience on interest rates (Bloomberg)S. African central bank should keep policy focus on inflation–Kganyago(Reuters)China eases property restrictions amid growth concern (Bloomberg)IMF sees diminished risk from global economic imbalances (Reuters)Fed’s Powell rejects…
  • Romania cuts rate 25 bps, reserve requirement 200 bps

    centralbanknews.info
    30 Sep 2014 | 9:39 am
       Romania's central bank cut its policy rate by a further 25 basis points to 3.0 percent, as expected, to help boost inflation and stimulate domestic demand that has slowed down further.    The National Bank of Romania (NBR), which has cut its rate by 225 basis points since August 2013,  also cut the minimum reserve requirements on leu-denominated liabilities to 10 percent from 12 percent while it maintained the reserve requirement on foreign currency deposits at 16 percent, both to boost lending and to continue the harmonization with European Union practices. …
  • India holds rate, upside risks to inflation ease slightly

    centralbanknews.info
    30 Sep 2014 | 6:11 am
        India's central bank maintained its benchmark repo rate at 8.0 percent, as widely expected, but struck a slightly dovish tone by saying the balance of risks to inflation meeting the bank's target were somewhat lower than in early August though they still remain to the upside.    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which raised its repo rate by 75 basis points from September 2013 to January 2014, said the continuing risks around inflation "warrant policy preparedness to contain pressure if the risks materialize" so the "future policy stance will be influenced by the…
  • Central Bank News Link List - Sep 29, 2014 - India’s Reserve Bank unlikely to cut policy rate

    centralbanknews.info
    29 Sep 2014 | 2:24 pm
    Here's today's Central Bank News' link list click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news. India’s Reserve Bank unlikely to cut policy rate (The Hindu)ECB will buy 200 bln euros of ABS, covered bonds in a year: Reuters pollBrazil central bank cuts 2014 GDP view, signals rate stability (Reuters)Deleveraging, what deleveraging? 16th Geneva report on world economy (VOX)New Fed study…
  • Angola maintains rate, kwanza eases, inflation steady

    centralbanknews.info
    29 Sep 2014 | 8:09 am
        Angola's central bank maintained its Basic Interest Rate (BNA) at 8.75 percent, noting a slight rise in August inflation, a depreciation in the kwanza's exchange rate, a strong rise in currency sales and a continued increase in credit to the economy.    The National Bank of Angola (BNA) cut its BNA rate by 50 basis points on July 28 to boost credit to the economy as it expects the recent downtrend in inflation to continue. The BNA also reduced the rate on its standing lending facility by 25 basis points to 9.75 percent while it maintained the rate for absorbing…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Business Insider

  • 29 Brilliant Quotes About Life And Investing By Charlie Munger

    Elena Holodny
    1 Oct 2014 | 5:51 am
    Charlie Munger dropped out of college, served as a meteorologist in the US Army Air Corps, and attended Harvard Law. And then at age 31, he met Warren Buffett, who convinced him to go into investing. Today, Munger is Warren Buffett's right-hand man at Berkshire Hathaway and has an estimated net worth of $1.3 billion We've compiled a list of his most insightful quotes about business, investing, and life in general. So step inside the mind of one of the most brilliant investors alive today.Don't drift into self-pity because it doesn't solve any problems. "Generally speaking, envy,…
  • Chrysler September Sales Rise 19%, Topping Expectations (HMC, TM, F, GM, FIATY)

    Myles Udland
    1 Oct 2014 | 5:33 am
    September US auto sales are expected to roll in all day on Wednesday. Chrysler was the first automaker to report sales, reporting an increase of 19%, topping expectations for a 16% rise.  Nissan followed and also reported sales that were better than expected. Nissan's US sales in September rose 18.5%, better than the 17% that was expected by economists, according to Bloomberg. Here's the updated scoreboard: Chrysler: +19% (+16% expected) Nissan: +18.5% (+17% expected) Ford: General Motors: Honda: Toyota: In August, auto sales beat expectations, coming at an annualized pace of 17.45…
  • Yes, A Gold iPad Air Is Coming Soon (AAPL)

    Lisa Eadicicco
    1 Oct 2014 | 5:30 am
    Apple's successor to the iPad Air will come in a gold color option just like its line of iPhones, according to Bloomberg, which says it spoke with people familiar with the company's plans. The company will offer this new gold color option in addition to the existing silver and grey options available for the iPad Air. This isn't the first time we've heard that Apple will add a gold variant to the iPad lineup. In early September, KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who has a pretty solid track record when it comes to predict Apple product launches, also reported the company would release a…
  • ADP Private Payrolls Beat Expectations (DIA, SPY, QQQ, TLT)

    Myles Udland
    1 Oct 2014 | 5:15 am
    Private payrolls grew by 213,000 in September, according to the latest report from ADP. Expectations were for the report to show payrolls grew 205,000 in September, roughly unchanged from last month's 204,000. August's report was also revised down to a gain of 202,000 jobs from 204,000. "September’s jobs added number marks the sixth straight month of employment gains above 200,000," said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. "It’s a positive sign for the economy to see the 200,000-plus trend continue." Following the report, Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro said,…
  • The Most Terrifying Sinkhole Pictures You've Ever Seen

    Michael B Kelley and Pamela Engel
    1 Oct 2014 | 5:10 am
    Sinkholes are scarily common, and although some are small and harmless, others open gaping holes in the ground that could swallow entire buildings — or passing cars. Recently, a sinkhole that formed in the middle of a highway in Crimea killed six people traveling in a car that fell into the hole. Sinkholes occur when bedrock made of limestone or other carbonate rock is eaten away by acidic groundwater or a surge of pressure caused by heavy rain or burst pipes. Sinkholes happen, sometimes suddenly, all over the US and across the world where the bedrock is susceptible —…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Business + Economy – Articles – The Conversation

  • What behavioural economics tells us about financial adviser greed

    Uwe Dulleck, Professor of Applied Economics at Queensland University of Technology
    30 Sep 2014 | 9:33 pm
    Some financial advisers are greedy, but others simply have a bias problem. ShutterstockThere’s no doubt incentives matter for financial advisers. If an employer pays a higher commission to an adviser for selling one product instead of another, it’s likely the commission-linked product will be sold more often. This basic reasoning was behind the previous government’s future of financial advice (FoFA) reforms. The question is, why is this so – out of pure greed, or do financial advisers just not know better? I studied the question of pure greed in experiments in 2011, in a study where…
  • It's too simple to argue lack of supply pushes up house prices

    Danika Wright, Lecturer in Finance at University of Sydney
    30 Sep 2014 | 12:50 pm
    Animal spirits: the Reserve Bank will be asked to explain itself on what is means by macroprudential tools. AAP/Dan PeledIs there a national housing supply problem? No, but there is a problem of access to affordable housing in certain regions. Last month, Reserve Bank Governor, Glenn Stevens commented on the need for “animal spirits” to respond to the exceptionally accommodative monetary policy setting and boost the supply of housing. More than 12 months have passed since the RBA last adjusted the cash rate to the current record low of 2.5%. This has stimulated investor demand,…
  • Fairfax case shows dangers of Facebook journalism: social media users beware

    Nigel Phair, Director, Centre for Internet Safety at University of Canberra
    29 Sep 2014 | 10:13 pm
    Social media should not be used by journalists to verify online identity. Daniel Avauz/Flickr, CC BY-NC-NDAustralians' love of social media, which includes 11.3 million Facebook users, has been a haven for social networking companies, advertisers, and increasingly journalists. But Fairfax’s recent publication of a photo of a young man misidentified as Numan Haider shows how important it is to protect the way your data is used. The shooting of Haider, who allegedly stabbed two police officers in Endeavour Hills in Victoria, was widely reported by all media outlets. In the 24/7 world of print…
  • 'Houston... when will we have liftoff?' Interpreting the US Federal Reserve's guidance

    James Morley, Professor of Economics and Associate Dean (Research) at UNSW Australia Business School
    29 Sep 2014 | 12:16 pm
    All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve to see when it will lift interest rates www.shutterstock.comSix years after the dramatic collapse of Lehman Brothers, the United States economy is finally showing signs of a stronger recovery from the global financial crisis. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is winding down its quantitative easing (QE) programs and all eyes are on it to see when there will be “liftoff” of the federal funds rate from the zero lower bound. In its last policy statement, the Fed used the phrase “considerable time” in describing how long it will continue its zero interest…
  • Sanctions are taking Russia back to the worst days of the USSR

    Gennadi Kazakevitch, Deputy Head, Department of Economics at Monash University
    28 Sep 2014 | 6:45 pm
    Thanks to sanctions, prices for fish in Russia have spiked by up to 50%. Anatoly Maltsev/AAPWhen Russia announced counter-sanctions against the European Union, USA, Canada and Australia banning imports of food items from those countries, it was clear there would be imminent consequences. But just how those are playing out isn’t as some had expected. According to President Putin’s economic adviser Sergey Glazyev, the imported component of food accounted for in Russia is 39%. This is almost twice the 20% maximum that should be allowed for food security reasons according to Glazyev himself.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Mindful Money » Shaun Richards

  • How long can France afford its economy to continue stagnating for?

    Shaun Richards
    1 Oct 2014 | 3:24 am
    One of the themes of this blog over the past couple of years has been that the economy of France is struggling and stagnating. After an initial bounce-back from the effects of the credit crunch it has in essence flat-lined since then if we take the broader picture. Indeed the last four quarterly GDP prints have gone -0.1%,0.2%,0% and 0% in the second quarter of this year. The French statistics institute is trying to put its best face on matters by calling 0% “held steady”. Also the latest report had some ominous potential news for the future if we investigate the detail. while…
  • The UK economy gets quite a boost from the official statisticians

    Shaun Richards
    30 Sep 2014 | 3:22 am
    Today is the day that we discover how much the latest changes to how we measure the output of the UK economy have boosted the level of recorded Gross Domestic Product (GDP). So I do hope that UK based readers are feeling better off already! This is because some methodological changes are being applied at the same time as the final version of the GDP numbers for the secons quarter of 2014 are released. These changes have two major categories. The first is the normal revisions to reflect the fact that products and times change over time, otherwise we would not be counting tablets and…
  • Falling UK real wages cannot be covered up with housing market subsidies forever

    Shaun Richards
    29 Sep 2014 | 3:12 am
    Tomoorow we will discover exactly how much the new “improvements” (adding drugs and prostitution) and revisions will boost the size of the UK economy. In terms of economic output we only a partial result so far where economic output in current spending terms was revised up by 6.2% for the year of 2012. However these changes cut  directly across one of the fault lines of the credit cruch era which is that the aggregate numbers in the UK have diverged substantially from the individual ones. This is why official proclamations of success and triumph echo in people’s ears in…
  • Is the Bank of England right about the dangers of Bitcoin and digital currencies?

    Shaun Richards
    26 Sep 2014 | 3:13 am
    It was only yesterday that I was reviewing the march of the central banks as they gather more powers and intervene in more areas. This was added to later by the Sydney Morning Herald reporting that the Bank of Japan was getting near to being the biggest investor in the Japanese stock market. From time to time economists appear and suggest that central banks should spend the profits or seignorage from issuing currency. If you think about it there is quite a profit margin in turning some ink and paper into something of high value and electronic money creation which is the modern form has even…
  • What are the limits of monetary policy in the credit crunch era?

    Shaun Richards
    25 Sep 2014 | 3:05 am
    This morning Mario Draghi the President of the European Central Bank is giving a speech in Vilnius Lithuania. There is much for him to ponder and discuss but today I wish to widen the issue beyond simply the situation of the ECB to look at what the credit crunch has told us about the limits of monetary policy. Perhaps the issues have unsettled Mario Draghi as believe it or not this is what he told Lithuanians (who are about to join the Euro).  Furthermore, belonging to the common currency area may provide stability for the country in the current geopolitical environment. Greece,…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    SurvivalBlog.com

  • Notes for Wednesday – October 01, 2014

    Hugh James Latimer
    30 Sep 2014 | 10:45 pm
    Several days ago, I asked for our readers’ experience with “Square” and PayPal “Here” card services. SurvivalBlog reader SJG has informed us that after reading about “Square” in SurvivalBlog, he sent a letter stating his dissatisfaction with them. SJG runs a side business dealing in Pelican cases, Hardigg boxes, ammo cans, and MREs at gun shows. He subsequently received this letter from Square: “Hello xxxxx, “We’re sorry to inform you that we are deactivating your account. We reviewed your account and found that your business is…
  • Round 54 Non-Fiction Writing Contest Winners Announced!

    Hugh James Latimer
    30 Sep 2014 | 10:44 pm
    First Prize goes to Leo Medic for “Musings of a Law Enforcement Paramedic, Part 1”, “Part 2”, “Part 3”, “Part 4”, and “Part 5”, which was posted on September 2-6, 2014. He will receive the following prizes: A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course (a $1,195 value), A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses…
  • September In Precious Metals, by Steven Cochran of Gainesville Coins.

    Hugh James Latimer
    30 Sep 2014 | 10:43 pm
    Welcome to SurvivalBlog’s Precious Metals Month in Review, where we take a look at “the month that was” in precious metals. Each month, we cover the price action of gold and silver and examine the “what” and “why” behind those numbers. The marketplace in September was dominated by two big factors– paranoia over when exactly the Federal Reserve would start raising rates and the absolute dominance of the U.S. dollar in the currency markets. These two factors not only affected precious metals, but they caused large gyrations in the stock market, especially towards the end…
  • Letter: Survival Anxiety

    Hugh James Latimer
    30 Sep 2014 | 10:43 pm
    Mr. Hugh, I have a response for those who are having an anxiety attack over what R.W. said about his method of taking down a compound. The answer is that I have been planning for people like this. About a year ago I bought material and built a new compound fence. This fence is made of cattle panels that are supported by 8 foot long 4×6″ posts and 4×4″ posts set 24″ deep in clay on 8′ centers. The 4×6 posts are where the cattle panels join each other. The panels are nailed to the posts on the outside with 2-1/2″ long staples. Along the top of the…
  • Economics and Investing:

    Hugh James Latimer
    30 Sep 2014 | 10:41 pm
    The U.S. Government Is Borrowing About 8 Trillion Dollars A Year o o o Items from Mr. Econocobas: Economists Slash Q3 GDP Forecast, But See Steady Growth Ahead “Yo” – This Market is Set For a Major Correction Video: Peter Schiff- Bubble Economy Can’t Survive Without Fed’s Cheap Money U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls In September
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Trading Heroes

  • The Anatomy of Going on Tilt

    Hugh Kimura
    23 Sep 2014 | 8:22 am
    I went on tilt late last year and it has taken me awhile to come back from it. This post will analyze what I did, what I should have done and how you can prevent yourself from doing the same thing. You will also be able to see my current trading results and I would love to hear about your experiences. The post The Anatomy of Going on Tilt appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • Trade Interceptor For Mac Review (September 2014 Update)

    Hugh Kimura
    16 Sep 2014 | 3:05 am
    Trade Interceptor just became a brokerage and launched new versions of their mobile app. They also launched a new version of their desktop software for the Mac. I'm particularly excited because this is the first legit charting platform for Macs. And the new TI also checks your grammar...kinda. The post Trade Interceptor For Mac Review (September 2014 Update) appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • The Globe-Trotting Forex Trader’s Gear Guide

    Hugh Kimura
    9 Sep 2014 | 12:48 am
    Most aspiring traders dream of traveling the world while trading. But you don't have to be a professional trader to travel. But if you want to take your trading on the road and practice trading while you are away from home, you will need the right equipment. Find out what I recommend in this post. The post The Globe-Trotting Forex Trader’s Gear Guide appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • How To Individually Track Multiple Trading Systems In The Same Account

    Hugh Kimura
    26 Aug 2014 | 10:51 pm
    If you only have one trading account, it can be tough to track the performance of multiple trading methods since all the trades are mixed together. How do you know what the starting balance is for each trade? How can you mark each trade with the trading method used? This post will show you exactly how to do it. The post How To Individually Track Multiple Trading Systems In The Same Account appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • Forex Programming Services Directory

    Hugh Kimura
    21 Aug 2014 | 5:56 pm
    Forex programming services are a weird thing. Even the most thorough Google search doesn't turn up very many results. So we compiled a list of services that can help you turn your next trading idea into reality. There are dozens of programmers on this list and we add new ones as we find them. The post Forex Programming Services Directory appeared first on Trading Heroes.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    OpenMarkets

  • Saracens Rugby Club Has A New Approach for Life After Sports

    OpenMarkets
    30 Sep 2014 | 4:16 pm
    The world of professional sports is often referred to as a cutthroat business with a next-in-line mentality. Careers can come to a crashing halt in the blink of an eye, leaving players lost in the wilderness with their entire lives still ahead of them. Saracens Rugby Club has taken a unique approach to this serious issue, and it’s paying dividends on the pitch and off. Alex Sanderson was making his mark among professional rugby’s elite. He started as a back row player for the Sale Sharks, worked his way onto the England World Cup and Six Nations clubs, and then signed on with Saracens…
  • MARKET UPDATE: GLOBAL MARGIN CALL

    OpenMarkets
    29 Sep 2014 | 1:44 pm
    Tomorrow is the end of the month and quarter and  Jack touches on that and what’s creating a Global Margin Call.
  • MONDAY OUTLOOK: Grain Stocks & End of the Quarter

    OpenMarkets
    29 Sep 2014 | 8:28 am
      The start of a new quarter might be reason enough to watch markets closely this week, but it’s also another big few days ahead for data releases. Tuesday, the USDA releases its quarterly grain stocks report, the final look at the level of grain farms are keeping in storage as they begin harvesting what is sure to be a large crop.  Then on Friday is the latest non-farm payrolls report, a possible signal as to how soon the Fed might adjust rates. Economic Calendar: Monday:  Pending Home Sales 10:00 AM ETD   Tuesday: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell speech 9:30 AM ET…
  • Market Update: A Rough Week for Equities

    OpenMarkets
    26 Sep 2014 | 1:52 pm
      This week saw a perfect storm of major events with lots of participants settling end of quarter accounts, the Rosh Hashanah holiday, and a large position being liquidated. However, the market is still fundamentally sound. Jack explores what all of it means heading into the next quarter.
  • What Alibaba’s IPO Can Tell Us About Corporate Venturing

    Mark Fields
    24 Sep 2014 | 4:17 pm
    The financial press was abuzz Sept. 19 with news and speculation about the highly anticipated IPO of Alibaba (NYSE: BABA), the China-based e-commerce company.  BABA’s IPO was expected to rise above the offering price of $68 during the first day of trading.  It did, and closed Friday at $93/share, giving it a market cap of roughly $230Bn. Founded 15 years ago, it is now one of the most valuable companies on the planet. Yahoo!, a major partner and investor in BABA, closed the same day with a market cap of about $41 billion.  Yahoo!’s 16 percent stake in BABA is now worth roughly $38…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    eWallstreeter

  • Methods: Falsification tests

    1 Oct 2014 | 3:00 am
    From “Prespecified Falsification End Points: Can They Validate True Observational Associations?” by Vinay Prasad and Anupam Jena: [A]nalyses in large data sets are not necessarily correct simply because they are larger. Control groups might not eliminate potential confounders, or many varying definitions of exposure to the agent may be tested (alternative thresholds for dose or duration of […]
  • Links for 10-01-14

    1 Oct 2014 | 12:03 am
    Now Is a Good Time to Invest in Infrastructure - iMFdirect Helicopter money: Today’s best policy option - vox Lawrence Summers Says Treasury Undermined Fed - NYTimes.com Explaining the Hegemony of New Classical Economics - Uneasy Money The Pimco Perplex...
  • The Vioxx Ban: Ten Years On

    30 Sep 2014 | 8:22 pm
    (Don Boudreaux) Intrigued by G. Pyle pointing me to a Cafe Hayek post of exactly three years ago, I went – just out of curiosity – to see what was posted at the Cafe exactly ten years ago today.  Here’s the last of three Cafe posts from September 30, 2004.  (Wow!  It doesn’t seem to have been that [...]
  • Competition Takes Many Forms

    30 Sep 2014 | 8:04 pm
    (Don Boudreaux) “G. Pyle” – who describes himself or herself as “a darn reg’lar” Cafe patron – points out to me by e-mail that the Quotation of the Day from exactly three years ago, one from the great Harold Demsetz, is relevant to today’s earlier letter to Paul Krugman.
  • Last reply to Matt Bruenig

    30 Sep 2014 | 7:16 pm
    Matt seems to have forgotten to take his meds, as his newest post is one of the silliest I’ve ever read.  Here’s an example: War On Poverty Backtrack You’ll recall Grandpa Sumner’s initial argument for why transfers don’t net reduce poverty went like this: Since the War On Poverty started, poverty hasn’t fallen at all. […]
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The Last Embassy

  • ACA/Obamacare: Employer Work-Around and Other Avoidance Techniques

    W.E. Heasley
    30 Sep 2014 | 2:20 am
    “Take Advantage of Imperfections in the Minimum Value Calculator. In addition to being affordable, health insurance must meet a “minimum actuarial value” test. For self-insured companies, this means that the benefits can differ from the essential health benefits included in a standard plan, but the employer plan has to cover at least 60 percent of expected costs under a standard plan. One
  • ACA/Obamacare: More About The Health-Care Cost Curve

    W.E. Heasley
    28 Sep 2014 | 3:48 am
    "But the growing centrality of education and health care is not only a function of public preferences and demand. Another important factor, especially to the two sectors' growth within the labor market, is the fact that it is more difficult to squeeze labor costs out of those industries than it is in, say, manufacturing or agriculture. After all, most factory work does not require deep
  • ACA/Obamacare: A Chief Architect of ACA, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, And His Very Dark Philosophy.

    W.E. Heasley
    26 Sep 2014 | 2:07 am
    ‘Normally, no one would care that in a recent Atlantic essay — “Why I Hope to Die at 75” — 57-year-old Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued that living to be 75 years old was long enough for anyone. After 75, Emanuel suggests, “We are no longer remembered as vibrant and engaged but as feeble, ineffectual, even pathetic.” But Emanuel is no garden-variety crackpot. Nor is he a wannabe science-fiction
  • ACA/Obamacare: GAO Reports that CMS Hasn’t Paid Proper Attention to Healthcare.gov Security Risks

    W.E. Heasley
    17 Sep 2014 | 3:03 am
    ‘HealthCare.gov has continuing security frailties that put users' sensitive personal information at risk, a government watchdog is set to tell Congress this week. Despite the federal government's efforts to protect the website from breaches, "weaknesses remained in the security and privacy protections applied to HealthCare.gov and its supporting systems," said the Government Accountability
  • ACA/Obamacare: Weeks Go By Before HealthCare.gov Detects Hacker Breaching Security and Uploading Malware

    W.E. Heasley
    7 Sep 2014 | 3:45 am
    ‘A hacker broke into part of the HealthCare.gov insurance enrollment website in July and uploaded malicious software, according to federal officials. Investigators found no evidence that consumers' personal data were taken or viewed during the breach, federal officials said. The hacker appears only to have gained access to a server used to test code for HealthCare.gov, the officials said.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Monetary Realism

  • The Full Monty on Naked Short Selling

    JKH
    21 Sep 2014 | 3:17 pm
    JP Koning has written an interesting post that depicts banks as engaging in “naked short selling” when they simultaneously create new loan assets and new deposit liabilities. For example, he compares the idea of systemic deposit creation with the case of selling Microsoft stock without owning the stock (shorting the stock) and also without borrowing the stock (naked shorting the stock). http://jpkoning.blogspot.ca/2014/09/getting-naked-in-praise-of-naked-short.html “Just as an equity short seller will borrow and then sell Microsoft with the intention of repurchasing it at a better…
  • Inflation Fears and a Coin Flip

    Michael Sankowski
    3 Sep 2014 | 6:25 am
    Steve Waldman has a new post up on why rich people, and not so rich people, might prefer hard money over greater wealth. This post was a response to Paul Krugman, and Cullen adds some good thoughts too. Here’s Steve: ““Full employment” means ungrateful job receivers have the capacity to make demands that could blunt equity returns. And even if that doesn’t happen, even if the rich do get richer in aggregate, there will be winners and losers among them, each wealthy individual will face risks they otherwise need not have faced. Regression to the mean is a bitch. You have…
  • Why Did the Natural Rate of Interest Plummet? Take 2

    Michael Sankowski
    2 Sep 2014 | 4:40 pm
    One of the more remarkable claims since the financial crisis of 2008 is that the natural rate of interest is now below zero, and it has been below zero since the financial crisis. If you look at the very best estimates of the natural rate of interest over the last 50 years, one broad fact is pretty clear–it’s been around 2 1/2% for nearly the entire time leading up to the financial crisis of 2008.  Here is a good estimate we have for the natural rate of interest, which is shown in the graph below, shows a slow moving, consistent natural rate of interest of around 2 1/2%. Here is…
  • Cullen’s New Book

    Michael Sankowski
    19 Jun 2014 | 7:06 am
    He’s been a bit modest about it, but Cullen has written a book which looks dang interesting: Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Money and Finance I don’t have my copy yet, so I can’t do a full review. Cullen has run an investment advisory for the last several years, and this book is about investing. Here is part of the blurb: “In Pragmatic Capitalism, Cullen Roche explores how our global economy works and why it is more important now than ever for investors to understand macroeconomics.” I fully agree with this – investing today…
  • China Asks: How much will it cost us to make Solar Cheaper than Coal?

    Michael Sankowski
    5 Jun 2014 | 8:21 am
    Do you remember when Dr. Evil was going to hold the world ransom for $1,000,000? This is what we are facing today in Solar – the Dr. Evil ultimatum. The cost to get Solar to coal parity is going to be laughably tiny. The cost sounds like a lot of money to old people, or to people who haven’t thought it through, or to people who do not know how large world GDP is today and how much we spend on energy already. But the cost is tiny, and China laughed when they found out the cost. I’ve been in a twitter argument with Michael Shellenberger. Michael Shellenberger is a sharp guy,so please read…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    FTMDaily.com

  • Exposing the Creature from Jekyll Island

    Jerry Robinson
    30 Sep 2014 | 7:00 am
    In this week's podcast, we reach back into the archives to bring you an hour-long interview with G. Edward Griffin, the author of the eye-opening book that exposed the true origins of the Federal... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • Three Traits to Look For in a Financial Advisor

    Jay Peroni
    27 Sep 2014 | 6:00 am
    Jay Peroni, CFP, shares how to find a great financial advisor using three important traits. Plus, discover seven tech stocks on the cutting edge of their industry.Author informationJay PeroniJay... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • FEDGATE: Whistleblower’s Secret Tapes Threaten to Expose Federal Reserve

    Jerry Robinson
    26 Sep 2014 | 3:15 pm
    46 hours of secret recordings from inside the Federal Reserve will soon rock Wall Street. Author informationJerry RobinsonPublisher at FTMDaily.comJerry Robinson is the author of Bankruptcy of Our... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • CHARTS: Volatility Rocks Stocks on Growing Global Concerns

    Jerry Robinson
    26 Sep 2014 | 2:08 pm
    As U.S. stocks continue their historic Fed-fueled rally, concerns are mounting over whether a pullback is imminent. Jerry Robinson shares his analysis.Author informationJerry RobinsonPublisher at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • Precious Metals Market Update – 9/24/14

    Tom Cloud
    24 Sep 2014 | 12:33 pm
    In this week's Precious Metals Market Update, Tom Cloud says gold is nearing a triple bottom. Get the entire update here.Author informationTom CloudTom Cloud is the Chairman of the Board of Turamali,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    BusinessClimate.com Blog

  • Manufacturing: Building Gains in Personal Income

    Bill McMeekin
    1 Oct 2014 | 3:25 am
    Another signpost that the U.S. manufacturing sector is maintaining its momentum: Just released data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on state personal income in the second quarter shows an overall gain of 2 percent in net earnings in the U.S. for durable goods manufacturing, increases in net earnings for durable goods manufacturing in all but two states and the highest gains overall from nonfarm income in 15 states compared to the first quarter. Manufacturing sector earnings growth – both durable and nondurable – were up in the traditional Great Lakes manufacturing…
  • Growth Gusher: Record Growth Expected Across the Energy Supply Chain

    Emily McMackin
    25 Sep 2014 | 9:51 am
    The domestic energy boom is about to get even bigger. More growth is on the way for manufacturers, suppliers and service providers that are supporting the rush of oil and natural gas production taking place in shale plays across the U.S. A new study by IHS Global, commissioned by the Energy Equipment & Infrastructure Alliance, is calculating record increases in employment, GDP, government revenue and wages for firms across the energy supply chain that produce equipment and provide services for oil and gas producers. A few standout statistics from the study include: •Employment growth in…
  • Livability: College Towns, Talent and Innovation

    Bill McMeekin
    24 Sep 2014 | 3:30 am
    Within a short span in late summer, Madison, WI, picked up accolades in two national rankings of livability. In August, Madison turned up at the top of NerdWallet’s Best Cities for Quality of Life, in which it was praised for offering “a great work-life balance, high affordability and health insurance coverage rates, and a low unemployment.” Just a couple weeks later, Livability.com named Madison No. 1 on its Top 100 Best Places to Live. As Livability.com editor Matt Carmichael notes, Madison has some built-in attributes that contribute both to its diverse economy and its…
  • In Demand: Aerospace, Energy Firms Working to Fill Engineering Talent Gap

    Emily McMackin
    18 Sep 2014 | 6:00 am
    Calling all engineers. Industry leaders in two of the nation’s fastest growing sectors – aviation and aerospace and oil and gas production – have recently expressed concern over the lack of qualified workers to fill the growing number of engineering jobs in these industries. “We do not have a robust pipeline of young people with the right skills and training coming into the workforce,” said Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) president Marion Blakey during the Reuters Aerospace and Defense Summit Sept. 11. With a slew of older employees approaching retirement, the…
  • Affordability, Local Support Attract Aspiring Entrepreneurs

    Emily McMackin
    12 Sep 2014 | 6:00 am
    Forget Silicon Valley and New York City. The fastest growing tech hubs are rising up in mid-sized cities between these typical hotbeds of entrepreneurship. Cities like Kansas City, Austin and Nashville are making a name for themselves as magnets for young, ambitious and tech-savvy entrepreneurs. What is drawing more startups to these cities? Affordability is one of the biggest selling points. As a post on The Atlantic’s CityLab site illustrates, cities are touting their lower cost of living and lower cost of doing business as key competitive advantages for entrepreneurs, especially…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The Conscience Blog

  • Scottish Independence: Be Careful What You Wish For

    Iyobosa
    18 Sep 2014 | 2:48 am
    Scottish not British This is a special piece about the SNP’s attempts for a Currency Union with the rest of the UK. It is flawed and the implications could be drastic. All patriotic rhetoric aside, the Scottish people should be careful of what they wish for. Without question the potential breakup of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is a monumental and truly unique event. The Scottish people have been granted their request for the right as Scots to self-determination. This would result in much greater powers shifting away from Westminster and into the Scottish…
  • Tricky Situation

    Iyobosa
    17 May 2014 | 2:41 am
    Government’s current stance with regards to the potential Pfizer takeover of AstraZeneca sends mixed messages about UK recovery.  Chairman & CEO Ian Read David Cameron’s stance with regards to Pfizer’s potential takeover of AstraZeneca is somewhat peculiar. Research & Development especially in the Science industry signals innovation, persistence and longevity. Therefore the employment associated to the Science industry appears to be the kind that the UK economy desperately requires in order to aid the fragile recovery. The anomaly comes as a surprise because both the Prime…
  • Great Read

    Iyobosa
    11 May 2014 | 6:00 am
    Hello World. Liam Halligan has a reputation as a straight-talking, logical and insightful journalist and this piece is no different. In his piece in The Telegraph Halligan discusses the present banking system in place in the UK and more specifically highlights the link between Investment and retail divisions. He goes on to explain and clarify that only complete separation will ensure catastrophic government bail-outs will not occur in the future, which could potentially save taxpayers billions. I’ve touched on this issue here.  …
  • Great Read

    Iyobosa
    27 Jan 2014 | 10:59 am
    Hello world. This is a post from the fantastic Systemic Disorder blog. It relates to my previous feature, where I detail the changing London landscape. The piece featured highlights some of the synonymous traits parts of New York City have undergone as a result of gentrification. http://systemicdisorder.wordpress.com/2012/08/08/the-corporate-steamroller-of-gentrification-is-a-deliberate-process/
  • HAPPY NEW YEAR

    Iyobosa
    1 Jan 2014 | 4:58 am
    A HUGE thank you to all readers, followers and browsers. There is plenty more planned for 2014. Stay connected. Thank you.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Latest blog entries

  • Ebola Coming to Europe Next

    23 Sep 2014 | 7:00 pm
    Even as I write, a ship is steaming directly to Amsterdam from the hot zone of the worst Ebola epidemic of all time. It's an ordinary cargo ship, and in a week or two, its crew will be downing beers and visiting the local talent of one of Europe's biggest port cities. The worst part is, it's not the only one. A flotilla of cargo ships leave from Europe each month to visit a variety of West African ports. The last of these ports, terrifyingly, are in each of the Ebola-stricken countries. As if it were perfectly intentional, these ships return straight away to Hamburg or Amsterdam for more…
  • Vladmir Putin: King of the Trashtalkers

    20 Sep 2014 | 2:35 pm
    I'm pretty down on government officials, elected or otherwise, I make no secret of it. But, I do love to watch a good game, and I can appreciate a master when I see one. While Vladimir Putin is a despot extraordinaire, he is awfully good at what he does. Truth be told, Michael Jordan wasn't paid millions in sponsorships and salary because he could put a ball through a net. He was paid his megamillions because he was fun to watch. If he put people to sleep while playing, no one would know his name. It was his miraculous dunks, his whirling fakeouts and electrifying play that made him a star.
  • Just Wars are Easy to Explain

    7 Sep 2014 | 6:58 pm
    A just war, or a morally justifiable war, should look like a morally (and legally) justifiable killing. The reasoning behind a just war should be quick to explain, with an obvious motive like self defense. It should be nearly impossible to find fault with a just war. By comparison, the longwinded articles that I'm reading on the Wall Street Journal reference Neville Chamberlain, Henry Kissinger, soft power, appeasement and isolationism while trying, and trying hard, to get people to sign the dotted line for another war. It got me to wondering: because the pro-war articles are long, is that…
  • The Ebola Outbreak is Airborne

    4 Sep 2014 | 5:02 pm
    The official party line, offered by the World Health Organization, is that the Ebola virus spreading across Africa (and likely other parts of the world), is that it is spread by "direct contact" with infected body fluids. "Infection occurs from direct contact through broken skin or mucous membranes with the blood, or other bodily fluids or secretions (stool, urine, saliva, semen) of infected people. Infection can also occur if broken skin or mucous membranes of a healthy person come into contact with environments that have become contaminated with an Ebola patient’s infectious fluids such…
  • Ready for (Another) War with Russia?

    31 Aug 2014 | 6:35 pm
    Just when you thought the Cold War was dead and buried, the war contractors and their lobbyists decided to dust off a tried and true model to line their pockets. The same foolish old men that brought us a war with Afghanistan and Iraq are eager once again to stuff other people and their money into a Ukrainian meat grinder. War is the word. War with Russia, of all nations, as if the US hadn't tried it before. Other pseudo-tangles with the Russians brought us North Korea, the Vietnam War, the Taliban, the Bay of Pigs and other bright spots in world history. In spite of poor historical outcomes,…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    FT Alphaville

  • Markets Live: Wednesday, 1st October, 2014

    Paul Murphy
    1 Oct 2014 | 3:00 am
    Live markets commentary from FT.com Continue reading: Markets Live: Wednesday, 1st October, 2014
  • The (early) Lunch Wrap

    Izabella Kaminska
    1 Oct 2014 | 2:45 am
    Deutsche Bank withholds bonuses from co-chiefs and top executives || Financial regulator begins full investigation of Tesco || Mario Draghi pushes for ECB to accept Greek and Cypriot ‘junk’ loan bundles || UK manufacturing activity falls to 17-month low || Sainsbury suffers fall in second-quarter sales || France insists delay on deficit target justified || Markets Continue reading: The (early) Lunch Wrap
  • Russia defence spending facts of the day

    Cardiff Garcia
    1 Oct 2014 | 1:30 am
    From a summary of Russia’s proposed new budget, by Free Exchange: The budget shows how much trouble the Russian economy is in—and how unwilling the government is to face up to reality.Continue reading: Russia defence spending facts of the day
  • Further Reading

    Dan McCrum
    1 Oct 2014 | 12:29 am
    Elsewhere on Wednesday, - Schroedinger’s executive order: data is not “collected” until it is examined - Arctic ice loss enough to shift planet’s gravity - Fighting authority with kindnessContinue reading: Further Reading
  • The 6am London Cut

    Paul Murphy
    30 Sep 2014 | 9:19 pm
    Ebay is to spin off PayPal which accounts for as much as half of its $65bn stock market value, in a further unravelling of one of the few remaining successes from the dotcom era of internet companies. The move marks a dramatic climbdown coming just months after the company rejected calls by the activist investor Carl Icahn to sell the online payments system. (Financial Times) Just when good news was starting to flow again out of Ireland, along comes the European Commission to spoil the celebrations. The Irish economy is growing strongly after its three-year, €67bn bailout. But its cherished…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Marginal REVOLUTION

  • What is the relevant bias when Westerners try to predict what Chinese leaders will do?

    Tyler Cowen
    30 Sep 2014 | 9:53 pm
    I see a whole bunch of candidates here, each backed by a broadly plausible psychological story: 1. They are more ruthless than we realize. 2. They are more like us than we realize. 2b. #1 and #2. 3. They have longer time horizons than we imagine. 4. Due to extreme political constraints, they have far shorter time horizons than we think. 5. They are more inured to the risk of economic depression and hardship than we grasp. 6. They are more obsessed with parallels to earlier Chinese history than a typical Westerner would find natural. 7. They are less rational than social science rational…
  • The CIA Starbucks (intelligence markets in everything)

    Tyler Cowen
    30 Sep 2014 | 9:03 pm
    Emily Wax-Thibodeaux reports: The new supervisor thought his idea was innocent enough. He wanted the baristas to write the names of customers on their cups to speed up lines and ease confusion, just like other Starbucks do around the world. But these aren’t just any customers. They are regulars at the CIA Starbucks. “They could use the alias ‘Polly-O string cheese’ for all I care,” said a food services supervisor at the Central Intelligence Agency, asking that his identity remain unpublished for security reasons. “But giving any name at all was making people — you know, the…
  • The return to education in France?

    Tyler Cowen
    30 Sep 2014 | 12:34 pm
    Pierre Mouganie has a new paper: In 1997, the French government put into effect a law that permanently exempted young French male citizens born after Jan 1, 1979 from mandatory military service while still requiring those born before that cutoff date to serve. This paper uses a regression discontinuity design to identify the effect of peacetime conscription on education and labor market outcomes. Results indicate that conscription eligibility induces a significant increase in years of education, which is consistent with conscription avoidance behavior. However, this increased education does…
  • Assorted links

    Tyler Cowen
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:30 am
    1. Mining Bitcoin by hand. 2. John Cochrane on inequality. 3. Will your grandmother ever find Borat funny? 4. Interview with a Chinese Misesian. 5. Recessions seem to have a permanent effect on lowering fertility. 6. Teledentistry.  And Jacob Weisberg reviews Rick Perlstein.
  • Caffeine-infused underwear fails (there is a great stagnation)

    Tyler Cowen
    30 Sep 2014 | 5:08 am
    Bras, girdles and leggings infused with caffeine and sold as weight loss aids were more decaf than espresso, and the companies that sold them have agreed to refund money to customers and pull their ads, U.S. regulators said on Monday. The Federal Trade Commission said Wacoal America and Norm Thompson Outfitters, which owns Sahalie and others, were accused of deceptive advertising that claimed their caffeine-impregnated clothing would cause the wearer to lose weight and have less cellulite. There is more here, and for the pointer I thank Glenn Mercer.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Zero Hedge

  • ADP Private Payrolls Rise Modestly To 4-Year Average

    Tyler Durden
    1 Oct 2014 | 5:22 am
    Despite Mark Zandi's promises that all is well in the US economy, ADP had dropped (and missed) two months in a row prior to today's print but a very small rise and beat this month (213k vs 205k expected and 205k previous) shows some stability. Of note is that this print is no better than the average ADP job change over the last four years. On the bright side small businesses add the most jobs while medium-sized businesses added the least. Of potential note to this somewhat 'meh' jobs data, yesterday's Consumer Confidence data showed a disappointing plunge in Jobs-Plentiful…
  • Frontrunning: October 1

    Tyler Durden
    1 Oct 2014 | 4:57 am
    European Bond Yields Go Negative (WSJ) Traveler from Liberia is first Ebola patient diagnosed in U.S. (Reuters) Hong Kong Protesters Step up Pressure on Leung to Quit (BBG) JPMorgan to face U.S. class action in $10 billion MBS case (Reuters) Turkey mulls military action against Islamic State (Reuters) Singapore Home Prices Fall for Fourth Straight Quarter on Curbs (BBG) Italy's Economic Woes Highlight Dilemma for European Central Bank (WSJ) Advanced iOS virus targeting Hong Kong protestors (Reuters) Fed Scrutiny of Leveraged Loans Grows Along With Bubble Concern (BBG)  Mosquito Virus…
  • Japan Stunned After Biggest Ever, $617 Billion "Fat Finger" Trading Error Slams Stocks

    Tyler Durden
    1 Oct 2014 | 4:25 am
    A few days ago, Bloomberg had a fascinating profile of the person, pardon degenerate Pachinko gambler, who goes under the name CIS, and who is the "mystery man who moves the Japanese market." In a nutshell, CIS, a momentum day trader and living proof of survivorship bias in finance (because for every CIS who has, allegedly, made it some 999,999 have failed) has amassed a fortune that he says now exceeds 16 billion yen after having traded 1.7 trillion yen in his career, generating an after tax profit of 6 billion yen in 2013 alone. Of course, the numbers are likely wildly fabricated for…
  • Germany Throws Up Over Draghi Plan To Buy Greek Junk

    Tyler Durden
    1 Oct 2014 | 4:02 am
    In a striking admission that Mario Draghi's "strategy" about the ECB's Private QE future, aka ABS monetization plan, is nothing short of converting Europe's central bank into a "bad bank"  repository for trillions in bad and non-performing debt, the FT yesterday reported that "Mario Draghi is to push the European Central Bank to buy bundles of Greek and Cypriot bank loans with “junk” ratings, in a move that is set to exacerbate tensions between Germany and the bank." It is expected that the former Goldmanite will unveil details of a plan to buy hundreds of billions of euros’ worth…
  • Equity Futures Fail To Surge Despite Ongoing Bad News Onslaught

    Tyler Durden
    1 Oct 2014 | 3:33 am
    A quick anecdote that should quickly confirm just how broken everything is: earlier today MarkIt reported European manufacturing data that was atrocious, with both German and European PMIs tumbling to levels not seen since mid-2013, and with Europe's growth dynamo now in a contraction phase clearly signalling what has been long overdue: a European triple dip recession. So what happens? Moments later Germany sells €4.1 billion in 10 Year paper at a record low yield below 1%.... even as the Bundesbank had to retain a whopping 17.84% of the auction, the highest since June, with only €4.663…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    nextnewdeal.net

  • Democracy, Economic Crisis, and “Rethinking Communities”

    rgoldfarb
    29 Sep 2014 | 6:00 am
    The Roosevelt Institute | Campus Network's Rethinking Communities initiative is emblematic of the model for democratic and economic reform needed in this New Gilded Age. As the latest Census report highlights, economic inequality continues to worsen. With a sluggish economic recovery, continued economic insecurity for many Americans, and ongoing political gridlock, it is increasingly clear that we live in a New Gilded Age. To successfully challenge this status quo, we must look to the lessons of past democratic reform movements as well as the innovative work that is being done on the ground…
  • What Ken Burns's Documentary on the Roosevelts Can Teach Us About Our Past and Ourselves

    tprice
    25 Sep 2014 | 5:06 am
    A historical adviser to the film looks back at how the Roosevelts saved the American free enterprise system. Ken Burns's superb documentary, The Roosevelts: An Intimate History, is in many ways a celebration of leadership, of the triumph of personal will over adversity, and of the belief in the age-old American story that each of us – no matter how burdened by life’s tragedies – has the capacity to accomplish great things. The film also has much to say about the transformative nature of government: the idea, which all three Roosevelts shared, that it was the responsibility of government…
  • Georgia Political Candidates: Where Are Carbon Emissions in Your Election Platform?

    tprice
    25 Sep 2014 | 3:52 am
    None of the candidates for major statewide office in Georgia are talking about carbon emissions or climate change, despite major new policy from the EPA that will make these issues central to their terms in office. The Environmental Protection Agency’s groundbreaking new carbon emissions proposal hedges some pretty hefty bets: the new rules require the equivalent of taking two-thirds of all cars and trucks in the U.S. off the road. The proposal will cost the economy more than $7 billion annually, but will lead to public health benefits accruing to more than $55 billion. The heated…
  • Ken Burns’s New Documentary Reveals the Human Side of the Roosevelts – And Our Deep Connection To Their Legacy

    tprice
    19 Sep 2014 | 9:06 am
    The success of The Roosevelts: An Intimate History highlights the people behind the policies that reshaped America. As the CEO of the Roosevelt Institute, I am reminded almost daily about the very personal connection people feel to Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt. The extraordinary critical acclaim for the new Ken Burns documentary The Roosevelts: An Intimate History makes it clear just how widespread that feeling is. But it also prompts me to consider why, in an age when politicians are vilified and Congress’s approval rating hovers around 14 percent, political figures from almost a century…
  • Wall Street Swindled Local Governments, Too. Here’s How They Can Get Their Money Back.

    tprice
    17 Sep 2014 | 6:00 am
    Predatory lenders drove municipal governments and taxpayers into debt with risky interest rate swap deals that may have violated federal regulations. The story of how Wall Street banks steered unsuspecting homebuyers towards complex mortgages with hidden risks and hidden costs has been well-documented. In fact, the typical sales pitch for adjustable-rate mortgages was premised on the false notion that home values never fall and that borrowers could refinance their loans before interest rates jumped. Less widely understood is the fact that a very similar story played out with cities, states,…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Jared Bernstein | On the Economy

  • So, you wanna raise the minimum wage…

    Jared Bernstein
    1 Oct 2014 | 5:00 am
    Over at PostEverything. Coincidentally, the always insightful Gavin Kelly of the UK think tank Resolution Foundation has a similar piece cogitating on the UK’s minimum wage.
  • Hey, What’d I Miss? OTE 9/17 — 9/29

    Jared Bernstein
    29 Sep 2014 | 6:58 am
    Sharing some advance thoughts re Martin Wolf’s new book. Pushing back on a misleading critique of a paper I wrote on inequality and growth. Analyzing Chair Yellen’s decision to keep the words “considerable time” in her statement before the FOMC. Explaining the biased against full employment in when-to-lift-rates debate. Looking at evidence of labor market slack through the relationship between the labor force participation rate and weak wage growth. Pondering our benighted US corporate code, despite the Administration’s fine start on curbing inversions. Describing the…
  • Wherein I do the DC thing of talking about a book I’ve yet to read.

    Jared Bernstein
    29 Sep 2014 | 6:31 am
    I need to read Martin Wolf’s new book, “The Shifts and the Shocks,” his diagnosis of the factors that brought on the financial crisis and his prescriptions for getting out of this terribly damaging bubble, bust, repeat cycle. But in the meantime, it’s worth giving a read to Felix Salmon’s review in yesterday’s NYT. Salmon comes to both praise and critique Wolf, the latter in no small part for the author’s turgid writing. While many of us in this biz try to make the complex if not simple, then accessible to non-experts (Salmon himself being a great example), Wolf chooses not to…
  • A misleading critique of my inequality and growth analysis

    Jared Bernstein
    29 Sep 2014 | 5:51 am
    Sorry, but Steve Roth’s critique of my Inequality and Growth paper for CAP is misleading and inaccurate. Moreover, he had to work pretty hard to miss my points linking inequality to macro-instability and thus persistent periods of weak growth. Not only does Roth somehow miss my emphasis on what I think are critically important linkages between inequality and growth, ones I repeat below. What’s particularly unfortunate about his critique is that while he purports to solve the hard problem that I laid out in the piece–correlations over the long-term between inequality and…
  • Musical Interlude: One After 909

    Jared Bernstein
    26 Sep 2014 | 1:11 pm
    The Beatles were, of course, many different things over the course of their life as a band. But at their core, they were always mates who just loved to rock out. That’s why I’ve always loved this version of One After 909. There was a lot of water under the bridge already and much more to come, but they clearly had no trouble at all getting back to their rockin’ roots.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Freakonomics

  • Fitness Apartheid: A New Freakonomics Radio Podcast

    Suzie Lechtenberg
    25 Sep 2014 | 7:00 am
    (Photo: Red Lion Hotel Denver) A New York City apartment building has a gym that only certain tenants can use. Which tenants? The newer ones who are paying market-rate rents — and not the ones who’ve lived there long enough to qualify for much cheaper, government-subsidized rent. Some tenants call this “fitness apartheid.” What do economists call it? That’s what this week’s show is about. The episode is called “Fitness Apartheid.” (You can subscribe to the podcast at iTunes, get the RSS feed, or listen via the media player above. You can also read the transcript,…
  • Fitness Apartheid Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    25 Sep 2014 | 6:59 am
    This is a transcript of the Freakonomics Radio podcast “Fitness Apartheid” [MUSIC: Rob Bridgett, “ava”] Theda Palmer SAXTON: I’m Dr. Theda Palmer Saxton. I’m a resident of 160 W. 97th Street, here in New York City, Upper West Side. Is that enough that you need to know about the situation? Stephen J. DUBNER: I for one wouldn’t mind knowing a bit more. Why, for instance, Dr. Saxton has chosen to speak out about this issue. SAXTON: I cannot possibly be quiet while I hear something that we fought… you know, Mandela had to fight about… I’m not doing that here. I did…
  • Outsiders by Design: A New Freakonomics Radio Podcast

    Gretta Cohn
    18 Sep 2014 | 8:00 am
    (Photo: Nishanth Jois) What does it mean to pursue something that everyone else think is nuts? And what does it take to succeed? That’s what this week’s episode is about. It’s called “Outsiders By Design.”  (You can subscribe to the podcast at iTunes, get the RSS feed, or listen via the media player above. You can also read the transcript, which includes credits for the music you’ll hear in the episode.) You’ll hear about three radical thinkers whose lives didn’t proceed in a perfectly straight line. In each case, their work was ridiculed or ignored — but…
  • Outsiders by Design Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    18 Sep 2014 | 7:00 am
    This is a transcript of the Freakonomics Radio podcast “Outsiders by Design” [MUSIC: The Civil Tones, “One Day, Again and Again” (from City Stoopin’ Stephen J. DUBNER: Hey podcast listeners. Our mission at Freakonomics has always been to tell you things you always thought you knew but didn’t … and things you never thought you wanted to know, but do. Now it is your turn to tell us something that we don’t know. On Monday, October 6, in New York City, we’re launching a live radio game show called “Tell Me Something I Don’t Know” — and the audience, that’s…
  • One Reason to Not Use Generic Medicines

    Stephen J. Dubner
    12 Sep 2014 | 10:59 am
    Our latest podcast episode — “How to Save $1 Billion Without Even Trying” — discusses research which finds that health-care experts generally buy generic medicines for their own use rather than the more expensive name brands. The episode discusses the various reasons that brand names might be more appealing despite the higher cost. A listener named Mike Dimore has written in with an interesting, and serious, reason that didn’t come up: This won’t apply to many people but for the few that it does apply to (myself included), it can end up costing them…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    interfluidity

  • Links: UBI and hard money

    Steve Randy Waldman
    26 Sep 2014 | 6:33 am
    Max Sawicky offers a response to the post he inspired on the political economy of a universal basic income. See also a related post by Josh Mason, and a typically thoughtful thread by interfluidity‘s commenters. I’m going to use this post to make space for some links worth remembering, both on UBI and hard money (see two posts back). The selection will be arbitrary and eclectic with unforgivable omissions, things I happen to have encountered recently. Please feel encouraged to scold me for what I’ve missed in the comments. With UBI, I’m not including links to…
  • The political economy of a universal basic income.

    Steve Randy Waldman
    19 Sep 2014 | 6:35 am
    So you should read these two posts by Max Sawicky on proposals for a universal basic income, because you should read everything Max Sawicky writes. (Oh wait. Two more!) Sawicky is a guy I often agree with, but he is my mirror Spock on this issue. I think he is 180° wrong on almost every point. To Sawicky, the push for a universal basic income is a “utopian” diversion that both deflects and undermines political support for more achievable, tried and true, forms of social insurance. My argument against UBI is pragmatic and technical. In the context of genuine threats to the…
  • Hard money is not a mistake

    Steve Randy Waldman
    1 Sep 2014 | 5:23 pm
    Paul Krugman is wondering hard about why fear of inflation so haunts the wealthy and well-off. Like many people on the Keynes-o-monetarist side of the economic punditry, he is puzzled. After all, aren’t “rentiers” — wealthy debt holders — often also equity holders? Why doesn’t their interest in the equity appreciation that might come with a booming economy override the losses they might experience from their debt positions? Surely a genuinely rising tide would lift all boats? As Krugman points out, there is nothing very new in fear of inflation by the rich.
  • Welfare economics: housekeeping and links

    Steve Randy Waldman
    11 Jul 2014 | 11:55 am
    A correspondent asks that I give the welfare series a table of contents. So here’s that… Welfare economics: Introduction The perils of Potential Pareto Inequality, production, and technology Welfare theorems, distribution priority, and market clearing Normative is performative, not positive I think I should also note the “prequel” of the series, the post whose comments inspired the exercise: Should markets clear? Much more interesting than any of that, I’ll add a box below with links to related commentary that has come my way. And of course, there have been two…
  • Welfare economics: normative is performative, not positive (part 5 and conclusion of a series)

    Steve Randy Waldman
    7 Jul 2014 | 1:20 pm
    This is the fifth (and final) part of a series. See parts 1, 2, 3, and 4. For those who have read along thus, far, I am grateful. We’ve traveled a long road, but in the end we haven’t traveled very far. We have understood, first, the conceit of traditional welfare economics: that with just a sprinkle of one, widely popular bit of ethical philosophy — liberalism! — we could let positive economics (an empirical science, at least in aspiration) serve as the basis for normative views about how society should be arranged. But we ran into a problem.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Why Nations Fail

  • Taxation vs. Expropriation

    Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson
    23 Sep 2014 | 8:36 am
    What’s the difference between a 50% marginal tax rate on income vs. 50% expropriation by a kleptocratic ruler or corrupt officials? Some models might suggest that they are the same, though their “legitimacy” seems to be very different. Despite some grumbling, most citizens of Western democracies (with the notable exception of Tea Party supporters in the United States) are happy with marginal tax rates around 50% or sometimes above, but few businessmen in sub-Saharan Africa or South Asia can be found to sing the praises of similar rates of expropriation or corruption. Why?
  • A Model of the Alternative Perspective

    Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson
    18 Sep 2014 | 3:56 pm
    In the last two posts, here and here, we have argued that neither the classic Hobbesian line of the benefits of a Leviathan nor James Scott’s perspective of disadvantaged groups always fleeing the authority of the state are fully satisfactory. Instead, it appears that though the state is often an instrument of repression and extraction in the hands of economic or political elites, there are at times important benefits from state centralization (as we have also argued in Why Nations Fail), and the state can even be a useful instrument for the disadvantaged in their struggles against the…
  • The Nature of Stateless Societies

    Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson
    16 Sep 2014 | 11:21 am
    We would also disagree on Scott’s other argument. Though it is true that one can find harmonious stateless societies, the comparative ethnographic evidence also suggests two robust facts. First, historical human societies, including stateless ones and those which lacked a modern state, were far more, not less, violent than modern societies. Hobbes was actually right when he said that the state of nature was nasty, brutish and short. This is evident from contemporary nations, such as those in Somalia or South Sudan, which were built on-top of historically stateless societies. The modern…
  • Towards an Alternative Perspective: Against Hobbes

    Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson
    10 Sep 2014 | 9:13 am
    In our last few blog posts on the state, we have argued that Scott’s whole vision of state centralization is deficient. Scott is right that in some cases the state is a great threat to welfare and he has been a vigorous and effective critic of the Hobbesian perspective on the state, so central to much thinking in social science. Hobbes, the great 17th-century English philosopher, argued that without a state one would have in society a “war of all against all”. The only solution was to create an institution for which Hobbes used the metaphor of a “Leviathan”…
  • The Benefits of Collective Titles

    Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson
    4 Sep 2014 | 7:17 am
    Hoy estos campesinos están reclamando que las vendieron muy baratas, sí, pero las vendieron, y los empresarios, compraron, barato, sí, pero las compraron — El Alemán This is a quote from Colombian paramilitary leader “The German,” remarking that “today the peasants are reclaiming the lands which they sold very cheaply, yes, but they sold them, and the businessmen, bought them, cheap, yes, but they bought them” often of course at gun point. In our last post, we discussed how Afro-Colombian communities managed to get collective title to…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Credit Writedowns

  • Everything you always wanted to know about gold

    Edward Harrison
    30 Sep 2014 | 5:16 am
    Last Thursday, we ran a unique half-hour segment on gold, gold investing and the gold standard over at Boom Bust. The panel was made up of four investors: Marshall Auerback, Rick Rule, Cullen Roche and Peter Schiff. I moderated the panel with regular Boom Bust host Erin Ade. I really enjoyed this format and think we could or should have run the segment for a full hour because there was a lot more ground to cover. We are thinking of doing the next show in this format on oil. So stay tuned. Take a look. More About: fiat currency, gold, gold standard, history, Markets, Weekly The most in-depth…
  • Deleveraging, What Deleveraging? The 16th Geneva Report on the World Economy

    Guest Author
    30 Sep 2014 | 3:57 am
    Originally posted on Vox By Luigi Buttiglione, Philip Lane, Lucrezia Reichlin, Vincent Reinhart The world has not yet begun to deleverage its crisis-linked borrowing. Global debt-to-GDP is breaking new highs in ways that hinder recovery in mature economies and threaten new crisis in emerging nations – especially China. This column introduces the latest Geneva Report on the World Economy. It argues that the policy path to less volatile debt dynamics is a narrow one, and it is already clear that developed economies must expect prolonged low growth or another crisis along the way.  The Lehman…
  • Interview: On The Global Economy and Economics

    Michael Pettis
    24 Sep 2014 | 10:48 am
    By Michael Pettis Doug, Pancoast, an American entrepreneur living in Shanghai, asked to interview me for his blog, and I agreed to do so. I think it was meant to be a brief interview, but I began to respond on a Saturday evening, while waiting for the performance at my club to begin (my office is at my CD label, just upstairs from my music club), and as the performance started late and the questions were interesting and covered a lot of ground, I ended up writing quite a lot. I thought I might reproduce the interview on my blog, not so much for the interview itself, which you can anyway find…
  • Country by country macro update, part 2, September 2014

    Edward Harrison
    16 Sep 2014 | 12:47 pm
    Yesterday, I did a broad overview of four markets of interest to global investors. And I wanted to continue my thoughts on this here with a few more markets and with a deeper dive into some of my thinking about the UK. Britain, Part 2: I want to take the UK on first, because I am doing a headline story on the UK today on Boom Bust, where I am filling in as host. Here’s what I said/will say on TV: In the United Kingdom, all eyes are on the Scottish referendum to secede from the UK. But today, a significant piece of news snuck under the radar. Britain’s Office for National Statistics…
  • Country by country macro update, September 2014

    Edward Harrison
    15 Sep 2014 | 5:52 pm
    This is the first time I am doing this, so let’s see how much value it adds. I thought I would quickly run through a number of countries in the news and give my perspective on the macro picture in each. I am just going to give a summary here of the key points of interest and will do a deep dive on some at a later date. Let’s start with the US. United States. The numbers coming out of the US have been good. US retail sales, driven by cars, was up 0.6% in August. Jobless claims are still hovering around 300,000 though the last week was 315,000. The jobs number for August was disappointing…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Liberty Street Economics

  • Cross-Country Evidence on Transmission of Liquidity Risk through Global Banks

    Blog Author
    1 Oct 2014 | 4:00 am
    Claudia M. Buch, James Chapman, and Linda GoldbergOver the past thirty years, the typical large bank has become a global entity with subsidiaries in many countries. In parallel, financial liberalization has increased the interconnectedness of banking systems, with domestic banking systems becoming more exposed to shocks transmitted through foreign banks. This globalization of banking propagated liquidity risk during the global financial crisis and subsequent euro area crisis. Unfortunately, little is known about how cross-border operations of global banks transmit liquidity shocks between…
  • Do Unemployment Benefits Expirations Help Explain the Surge in Job Openings?

    Blog Author
    30 Sep 2014 | 4:00 am
    Fatih Karahan, Samuel Kapon, and Kaivan K. Sattar Job openings are arguably one of the most important indicators of recovery in the labor market, as they reflect employers’ willingness to hire. The number of job openings has recovered steadily since the recession, yet through the end of 2013, the openings rate was still substantially below its pre-recession peak (see chart below). Starting in January 2014, however, the number of job openings increased dramatically, up by 20 percent through June 2014, and job openings relative to employment jumped back to the peak of the previous expansion.
  • Direct Purchases of U.S. Treasury Securities by Federal Reserve Banks

    Blog Author
    29 Sep 2014 | 4:00 am
    Kenneth D. Garbade From time to time, and most recently in the April 2014 meeting of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, U.S. Treasury officials have questioned whether the Treasury should have a safety net that would allow it to continue to meet its obligations even in the event of an unforeseen depletion of its cash balances. (Cash balances can be depleted by an unanticipated shortfall in revenues or a spike in disbursements, an inability to access credit markets on a timely basis, or an auction failure.) The original version of the Federal Reserve Act provided a robust safety…
  • The FRBNY DSGE Model Forecast

    Blog Author
    26 Sep 2014 | 7:00 am
    Matthew Cocci, Marco Del Negro, Stefano Eusepi, Marc Giannoni, and Sara Shahanaghi Fifth in a five-part series This series examines the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (FRBNY DSGE) model—a structural model used by Bank researchers to understand the workings of the U.S. economy and provide economic forecasts. The U.S. economy has been in a gradual but slow recovery. Will the future be more of the same? This post presents the current forecasts from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s (FRBNY) DSGE model, described in our earlier “Bird’s…
  • Connecting “the Dots”: Disagreement in the Federal Open Market Committee

    Blog Author
    25 Sep 2014 | 4:05 am
    Richard Crump, Troy Davig, Stefano Eusepi, and Emanuel MoenchPeople disagree, and so do the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). How much do they disagree? Why do they disagree? We look at the FOMC’s projections of the federal funds rate (FFR) and other variables and compare them with those in the New York Fed’s Survey of Primary Dealers (SPD). We show that the members of the FOMC tend to disagree more than the primary dealers and offer some potential explanations. The DotsIn January 2012, the FOMC began reporting participants’ FFR projections in the Summary of Economic…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The Incidental Economist

  • Methods: Falsification tests

    Austin Frakt
    1 Oct 2014 | 3:00 am
    From “Prespecified Falsification End Points: Can They Validate True Observational Associations?” by Vinay Prasad and Anupam Jena: [A]nalyses in large data sets are not necessarily correct simply because they are larger. Control groups might not eliminate potential confounders, or many varying definitions of exposure to the agent may be tested (alternative thresholds for dose or duration of a drug)—a form of multiple- hypothesis testing. Just as small, true signals can be identified by these analyses, so too can small, erroneous associations. For instance, several observational…
  • Best in the world, my a$$! – Emergency Departments and Networks – ctd.

    Aaron Carroll
    30 Sep 2014 | 12:03 pm
    A number of people, especially ER docs, have taken exception to this: How common is this, you might ask? When emergency medicine emerged as a specialty in the 1980s, almost all E.R. doctors were hospital employees who typically did not bill separately for their services. Today, 65 percent of hospitals contract out that function. And some emergency medicine staffing groups — many serve a large number of hospitals, either nationally or locally — opt out of all insurance plans. That’s right, two-thirds of hospitals have out-of-network doctors working in their in-network emergency rooms.
  • Reproducible science and randomized clinical trials

    Bill Gardner
    30 Sep 2014 | 11:40 am
    Empirical studies provide facts to help guide policy and clinical medicine, or at least they do when the study is done well. Good studies are reproducible, that is, any competent scientist should be able to carry out the same procedures and reproduce my results. But there is a crisis across science in the reproducibility of results. There are concerns about the replicability of studies in psychology, in economics, and in biology: Scientists [at] Amgen… tried to confirm… fifty-three papers [that] were deemed ‘landmark’ studies. It was acknowledged……
  • AcademyHealth: Decompositions of health spending growth

    Austin Frakt
    30 Sep 2014 | 9:40 am
    What’s the “right” way to decompose health spending growth? That’s a trick question. To find out why, read my new post on the AcademyHealth blog. @afrakt  
  • How the rise of generic drugs affects pharmaceutical innovation

    Austin Frakt
    30 Sep 2014 | 9:00 am
    For many years, researchers and industry observers have conjectured that rising generic penetration might have an impact on the rate and direction of pharmaceutical innovation. Using a new combination of data sets, we are able to estimate the effects of rising generic penetration on early-stage pharmaceutical innovation. While the overall level of early-stage drug development has continued to increase, generics have had a statistically and economically significant impact on where that development activity is concentrated and how it is done. In the full sample, we find that, as our baseline…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    LewRockwell

  • So Many Liberals, So Few Lifeboats

    Gary North
    30 Sep 2014 | 10:01 pm
    The liberal WaPo got bought last year by Jeff Bezos, who runs Amazon. It has just announced a freeze on pension benefits. The sinking ship of print media is doomed. It is a delight to see. All those liberals; so few lifeboats! They had hoped. They had dreamed. They had trusted management. Now they are getting a taste of economic reality. Oh, woe! They had no major competition for decades. Now there is Craigslist. Free. Now there is Drudge for all the wire service news. Free. Free for all. That’s what it is out there: a free for all. WaPo cannot compete.The strategy of buying up major city…
  • When the Beatles Met Elvis

    No Author
    30 Sep 2014 | 10:01 pm
    In just a few short years, The Beatles created the most iconic albums of all time, changing music and pop culture forever. And while they recorded their greatest hits, the four lads from Liverpool were living out some of rock and roll’s craziest stories. From their first American tour to their troubled last days, The Beatles were constantly cooking up the strangest plans, meeting the most interesting people, and winding up in the weirdest places. 10. The Jelly Bean Incident When The Beatles arrived in America in 1964, they sparked a wild tide of mass hysteria that we all know as…
  • Say Yes to Butter and Cream

    Joseph Mercola
    30 Sep 2014 | 10:01 pm
    Most mainstream dietary advice recommends low-fat or non-fat dairy. But a growing number of experts argue that it’s far healthier to eat and drink whole dairy products, with all the fat left in. Dairy foods contain roughly 50 to 60 percent saturated fat, and conventional thinking is that saturated fat is bad for your heart. This idea has been thoroughly refuted as false. It’s a mistaken interpretation of the science. In a 2010 analysis,1 scientists said: “…There is no significant evidence for concluding that dietary saturated fat is associated with an increased risk of [coronary…
  • The Cradle of Kleptocracy

    Taki Theodoracopulos
    30 Sep 2014 | 10:01 pm
    Athens—This grimy, semi-Levantine, ancient city has its beauty spots, with childhood memories indelibly attached. A turn of the century apartment building, across the street from my house, where in 1942 or ’43 I watched a daughter and wife scream in horror from their balcony as three nondescript assassins executed a man while he bent over to get into his chauffeur-driven car. His name was Kalyvas and he was a minister in the Vichy-like Greek government of the time. He was bald and from my vantage point I saw the three red spots as the bullets entered his skull. His wife and daughter wore…
  • ISIS Is No More Islamic

    George Washington
    30 Sep 2014 | 10:01 pm
    ABC News’ Laura Ingraham, Fox News’ Sean Hannity, Fox & Friends and other U.S. media commentators say that Muslims are silent and complicit in the barbarian crimes of ISIS. Fox News host Andrea Tantaros said that all Muslims are the same as ISIS, and implied that all Muslims should be met “with a bullet to the head”. Why don’t we hear Muslims condemning the barbarian ISIS terrorists? Turns out they are loudly condemning ISIS … but our press isn’t covering it. Father Elias Mallon of the Catholic Near East Welfare Association explains: “Why aren’t Muslims speaking out…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Angry Bear

  • Sadly, Ed Yardeni is the Wanker of the Day – wage stagnation edition

    Dan Crawford
    1 Oct 2014 | 5:00 am
    by New Deal democrat         (re-posted with permission from Bondadd blog) Sadly, Ed Yardeni is the Wanker of the Day – wage stagnation edition Dr. Ed Yardeni has some clickbait up at his blog titled, The Wage Stagnation Myth. Yardeni is a highly-regarded financial markets analyst, but this is just sad. He writes […]
  • VERY SHORT POST ON SOCIAL SECURITY DISABILITY INSURANCE

    Dan Crawford
    1 Oct 2014 | 4:58 am
    by Dale Coberly VERY SHORT POST ON SOCIAL SECURITY DISABILITY INSURANCE The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has issued a “call for papers” with suggestions for “fixing” SSDI. I expect that by “fixing” they mean cutting people off and getting them back to work. After all, even people on IV’s could work as telephone […]
  • Raise the Fed rate or not, Labor is still falling behind

    Edward Lambert
    30 Sep 2014 | 2:04 pm
    Mark Thoma wrote today that the Fed should not raise rates too soon, because… “If the Fed raises rates too soon, it is working class households who will be hurt the most by the slower recovery of employment.” His thinking is not deep enough. He just sees that a rise in the Fed rate will […]
  • Me v. William Cannon, Part II: The Jonathan Gruber Canard

    Beverly Mann
    30 Sep 2014 | 11:51 am
    Okay, well, as all you AB regular readers know, yesterday I posted a post deconstructing—and, yes, that’s what I did—a blog post on the Forbes website by William F. Cannon.  He blogs there on “health, freedom, and other uncertainties,” but his day job is Director of Health Policy Studies at the Cato Institute. The studies apparently entail […]
  • Open thread Sept. 30, 2014

    Dan Crawford
    30 Sep 2014 | 5:46 am
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Macro and Other Market Musings

  • The Love Affair Conservatives Should Be Having

    22 Sep 2014 | 9:26 am
    Paul Krugman and Josh Barro are going after conservatives for their "new love affair with Canada". They claim conservatives are incorrect to view Canada's successful fiscal consolidation in the 1990s as evidence of  "expansionary austerity." Here is Krugman:Canadian austerity in the 1990s was offset by a huge positive movement in the trade balance, due to a falling Canadian dollar and raw material exports...Since we can’t all devalue and move into trade surplus, this meant that the Canadian story in the 1990s had no relevance at all to the austerity debate of 2010.Actually, the…
  • Another Bond Market Conundrum?

    1 Sep 2014 | 8:05 am
    Is the U.S. economy in the midst of another bond  market "conundrum"? The last time we had one was in 2005 when former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan became perplexed over long-term interest rates failing to rise with the tightening of monetary policy. Some observers see something similar happening today. They note that the Fed has been tightening monetary policy with its tapering of QE3 and yet the benchmark 10-year treasury interest rate has been falling since the beginning of 2014. This conundrum gets even more interesting when one looks at the five-year treasury interest rate. It has…
  • About the Fed Not Trying Hard Enough To Hit Its Inflation Target

    24 Aug 2014 | 1:16 pm
    It is hard not to be cynical when you see charts like this one. It shows what appears to be a systematic relationship over the past 6 years between changes in the Fed share of marketable treasuries and PCE core inflation: The figure indicates the Fed allows its share of marketable treasuries to change--by either engaging in LSAPs or refraining from doing so as the total share grows--so that core PCE inflation stays in the 1% to 2% corridor. Here is the scatterplot of this data:Now this is just a reduced-form relationship, but it is highly suggestive and consistent with my claim from an…
  • Talking About the Past Five Years

    22 Aug 2014 | 11:33 am
    I recently gave a talk to the Financial Planning Association of Kentucky. The slides from the presentation are below and readers of this blog with be familiar with many of them. In case you are not familiar, below is the slide outline and where to go for more information. The audience asked many questions that led the discussion beyond what was presented on the slides, including the Triffin Dilemma for US treasuries, why the Fed likes core PCE, and what is holding back the recovery. It was a lively and fun discussion. Slide Outline(1)  Monetary Policy Tightened During the Recession. See…
  • The Secular Stagnation Bug is Spreading at the Fed

    15 Aug 2014 | 3:01 pm
    Speaking of secular stagnation, it appears to be catching on at the Fed. Here is CNBC's Alex Rosenberg:Is there something seriously wrong with the economy? It's a scary prospect, and a concern that's gotten louder and louder over the past year. In economic circles, it goes by the alliterative name of "secular stagnation." And it's a phrase that Fed watchers are likely to hear more and more in the months ahead. Recent comments by the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, Stanley Fischer, indicate questions within the central bank about whether the slow growth that has followed the recent…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    niesr.ac.uk

  • The real policy challenge - under-utilisation of migrants' skills

    HeatherRolfe
    30 Sep 2014 | 2:46 am
    Much has been made of Ed Miliband’s failure to deliver sections of his conference speech on the economy and on immigration. But he didn’t forget to repeat the policy first announced just before the party’s 2013 conference to require employers to recruit an apprentice for every non-EU migrant they employ:  ‘If you want to bring in a worker from outside the European Union, that’s OK, but you must provide apprenticeships to the next generation’
  • Real Devolution: The Power to Borrow - Reply

    MoniqueEbell
    23 Sep 2014 | 7:30 am
    In our recent paper on devolution we argue that real power requires granting UK regions the ability to borrow in addition to tax and spending powers. In a blog post, Tony Yates suggested that this would in fact create the same mess as the Euro zone.
  • Stubborn facts?

    JonathanPortes
    9 Sep 2014 | 1:57 pm
    Toby Young (Fulbright Lecture, 2014, reported by Laura McInery): Kids can't analyse or think critically without first learning facts
  • The crisis at Calais: no, the UK is not "El Dorado":

    JonathanPortes
    5 Sep 2014 | 2:32 am
    The scenes at Calais over the past few days raise the question of why Britain is the "favoured destination" for illegal/irregular entrants to the European Union.
  • The public sees international students as an asset and source of talent

    HeatherRolfe
    27 Aug 2014 | 1:44 am
    What do the public think about international students? Do they see them simply as generating revenue for universities or as longer term migrants who can bring new talent to the UK? New research by British Future shows that there is support for international students among the general public who both recognise the benefits they bring and believe we should make us of their skills and talent.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Bruegel - Latest Updates

  • The 'dos and don'ts' of a growth-friendly policy mix for the Euro area

    1 Oct 2014 | 12:30 am
    1 Speech by Mario Draghi, Annual central bank symposium in Jackson Hole, 22 August 2014When looking at possible ways out of the euro area crisis, there is a growing consensus that it will require “a policy mix that combines monetary, fiscal and structural measures at the union level and at the national level”, as Mr. Draghi recently put it.1 However, stipulating the details of this policy mix is far more controversial. On the monetary side, there is a debate on the extent to which the TLTRO operations of the ECB would achieve the desired goal…
  • The economics of Uber

    30 Sep 2014 | 5:55 am
    Effectively Uber works as a matching platform for passengers and drivers and makes money by taking a 10-20% cut from each rideUber, a San Francisco company founded in 2009, is currently one of the fastest growing startups worldwide. In 2014 its estimated valuation reached 17 billion USD, up from 3.5 billion USD a year earlier. The idea behind Uber is simple. Potential passengers can download a smartphone app that allows them to request the nearest available Uber car. But unlike a traditional taxi company, Uber does not operate its own cars. Instead it signs up private drivers willing to…
  • Interactive: Do it yourself European Unemployment Insurance

    30 Sep 2014 | 1:55 am
    Following on from our previous blog post on this topic, we invite you to try out our improved European Unemployment Insurance (EUI) scheme simulator which now includes a line graph to chart the evolution of the net flows from the scheme and its situation, as well as a heat map of all European countries. Ctrl + shift +L will generate a permanent url to share the selected combination of inputs.
  • Russian Roulette, reloaded

    29 Sep 2014 | 11:33 pm
    European attention will be back to Russia and Ukraine this week, as sanctions are reviewed.  In the meantime, important changes have taken place. European FDIs and loans to Russian borrowers have started to dry up, while lending from China has reached new highs, raising important questions about the effectiveness of measures supposed to restrict Moscow’s room of maneuver in seeking access to capital. Geopolitical conflicts have one common characteristic: they catalyse attention according to cycles. The Ukraine-Russia affaire is not an exception, in this respect. On Tuesday, EU…
  • The new normal of monetary policy

    28 Sep 2014 | 11:27 pm
    What’s at stake: Since 2008, the asset purchases made under QE have increased drastically the aggregate level of bank reserves, thereby weakening the control of the Fed's federal funds rate. On Wednesday 17 September 2014, the Federal Reserve announced a revised plan for the mechanics of how it will raise interest rates from near zero despite large excess reserves.The primary tool for moving the fed funds rate will be the interest rate the Fed pays on the money, called excess reservesReal Time Economics writes that as part of the so-called exit strategy, the Fed will continue to rely on its…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    TaxVox

  • The Public Wants Clear Rules About Campaign Giving Through Tax-Exempts. Is It Possible?

    Howard Gleckman
    30 Sep 2014 | 11:53 am
    A poll released today by the conservative Hudson Institute and the liberal group Public Citizen finds that nearly 9 in 10 voters surveyed favor clear rules that define political activities by non-profit tax-exempt organizations. The public’s desire for clarity is not surprising, given the amount of undisclosed campaign money that is flooding through tax-exempt 501(c)(4) social welfare organizations and the seeming inability of the IRS to regulate political tax-exempts. But what would those rules look like? There is no consensus but a few intriguing ideas are surfacing, ranging from full…
  • The $300 billion question: How should we budget for federal lending?

    Donald Marron
    29 Sep 2014 | 11:16 am
    Lending programs create special challenges for federal budgeting. So special, in fact, that the Congressional Budget Office estimatestheir budget effects two different ways. According to official budget rules, taxpayers will earn more than $200 billion over the next decade from new student loans, mortgage guarantees, and the Export-Import Bank. According to an alternative that CBO favors, taxpayers will lose more than $100 billion. Those competing estimates pose a $300 billion question: Which budgeting approach is best? As I document in anew reportandpolicy brief, the answer is neither one.
  • Pressure, Power, and a New View on Cuts

    Renu Zaretsky
    29 Sep 2014 | 5:00 am
    Congress is in recess through the mid-term elections. Read the Daily Deduction each Monday until then.  Apple’s new products might not bend, but its tax deals are under some pressure. Later today, the European Union’s European Commission is expected to release its opening decision on Apple’s 1991 and 2007 deals with the Irish government: They amounted to illegal state aid. Apple will have 30 days to respond. Apple itself isn’t under investigation, but the company might be required to return any unpaid taxes. Corporate inversions: Knowledge is power. Back at home,Treasury’s new…
  • Treasury’s New Rules May Slow, But Won’t Stop Corporate Tax Inversions

    Howard Gleckman
    23 Sep 2014 | 3:38 pm
    Will Treasury’s new rules stop the wave of corporate tax inversions? No they won’t. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew acknowledged as much when the agency proposed the curbs yesterday. Will they slow the practice? Perhaps, but even that is not certain. In a perverse way, Treasury’s most effective weapon may have been ambiguity. Once the Administration announced in August that it would take undefined regulatory action against these deals, almost all pending transactions stopped (with the exception of the Burger King-Tim Horton’s union). Privately, tax lawyers told me they would have to wait…
  • Does Treasury Have the Legal Authority To Curb Tax Inversions?

    Howard Gleckman
    22 Sep 2014 | 9:24 am
    While we wait to see how and when the Obama Administration will use its executive authority to curb the use of corporate tax inversions, the debate continues over whether Treasury even has the power to limit the practice. In a new article in Tax Notes, Tax Policy Center senior fellow Steve Rosenthal minces no words:  “Treasury has the legal authority to curb inversions.” Its main tool:  A provision of a 1969 law that allows the agency to define debt and equity. Citing decades of case law, Steve argues that Section 385 of that statute lets Treasury limit the ability of an inverted firm…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Off the Charts Blog | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

  • Do Medicaid and SNAP Reach Those Who Most Need Them?

    Stacy Dean
    30 Sep 2014 | 9:30 am
    Millions of low-income people qualify for both Medicaid and SNAP (formerly food stamps), but the federal government doesn’t regularly assess how many of them actually receive both.  That’s a significant omission: Medicaid and SNAP address the most basic needs of our poorest citizens, and health care and nutrition assistance likely produce more powerful results when provided together.  A new Urban Institute paper examining joint participation among eligible children and non-elderly adults in five states — something the federal government could do for all states every year — suggests…
  • Tax Incentives for Retirement Savings Need Reform

    Brandon DeBot
    29 Sep 2014 | 11:18 am
    “We need to hear facts and serious policy proposals, not political slogans” like “upside-down tax incentives,” the Senate Finance Committee’s top Republican, Orrin Hatch, said at a recent committee hearing on retirement savings.  But tax incentives for retirement plans like 401(k)s and individual retirement accounts (IRAs)are indeed “upside down,” providing the largest subsidies to high-income taxpayers while benefiting low-income households the least (see chart).  As we’ve written, tax incentives for retirement savings are expensive, inefficient, and inequitable, making…
  • VA Governor Lauds Community Eligibility

    Becca Segal
    29 Sep 2014 | 9:01 am
    Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe has good things to say about the Community Eligibility Provision (CEP), which allows high-poverty schools to provide breakfast and lunch to all students at no charge.  Speaking recently about how to improve education, he said in part: It will surprise no one here to learn that studies show poverty is the number one predictor that a student will face educational challenges. . . .  Nor will it surprise anyone that the number of students here in Petersburg impacted by the local economy is high. . . .  This doesn’t excuse failure – in fact it makes it all…
  • In Case You Missed It…

    CBPP
    26 Sep 2014 | 12:22 pm
    This week on Off the Charts, we focused on the new Census data on poverty, inequality, and health coverage; the federal budget and taxes; state budgets and taxes; and housing. On the new Census data, we listed five key takeaways from the data.  Arloc Sherman explained why the data strengthen the case for doing more to help low-income childless workers and pointed out that the decline in the official poverty rate follows a decade and a half of mostly rising or stagnant poverty rates.  Matt Broaddus highlighted our analysis of the health coverage data, which show a slight improvement. On the…
  • Reassessing a View on Federal Accounting

    Paul N. Van de Water
    26 Sep 2014 | 10:55 am
    So-called “fair-value accounting” is misguided because it would make federal loan and loan guarantee programs look more expensive than they really are, as my colleague Richard Kogan and I have explained.  Jason Delisle and Jason Richwine, writing in the latest issue of National Affairs, correctly note that the logic of our argument is inconsistent with a 2005 CBPP analysis of proposals to invest part of the Social Security trust funds in stocks instead of Treasury bonds.  We concur.  We have re-analyzed our assessment of investing a portion of the Social Security trust fund in equities…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Eschaton

  • Morning

    1 Oct 2014 | 2:28 am
    Here's some good news from Spocko. When Corporate Sponsors Leave ALEC and Rush, What We Learn.
  • Tuesday Night

    30 Sep 2014 | 5:21 pm
    Rock on.
  • Evening Thread

    30 Sep 2014 | 2:47 pm
    enjoy
  • You Fucked Up, You Trusted Us!

    30 Sep 2014 | 1:00 pm
    I am shocked.Former Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown has called for 100,000 Scots to sign a petition urging Westminster to keep promises on devolution....The outgoing SNP leader and first minister said Mr Brown was "calling for guarantees on the delivery of something which he himself said during the referendum campaign was already a done deal".
  • Free Labor Concussion Game

    30 Sep 2014 | 11:55 am
    I don't know if there's anything that can be done to reduce the number of life altering injuries in football, but at least even the lowest paid players in the NFL are compensated pretty well. College football is really just a criminal enterprise, with people getting rich off of gladiator games by unpaid participants who are often completely abused.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • “An exact fishy test”

    Andrew
    27 Sep 2014 | 6:13 am
    Macartan Humphreys supplied this amusing demo. Just click on the link and try it—it’s fun! Here’s an example: I came up with 10 random numbers: > round(.5+runif(10)*100) [1] 56 23 70 83 29 74 23 91 25 89 and entered them into Macartan’s app, which promptly responded: Unbelievable! You chose the numbers 56 23 70 83 29 74 23 91 25 89 But these are clearly not random numbers. We can tell because random numbers do not contain patterns but the numbers you entered show a fairly obvious pattern. Take another look at the sequence you put in. You will see that the number of…
  • MA206 Program Director’s Memorandum

    Andrew
    26 Sep 2014 | 6:22 am
    A couple years ago I gave a talk at West Point. It was fun. The students are all undergraduates, and most of the instructors were just doing the job for two years or so between other assignments. The permanent faculty were focused on teaching and organizing the curriculum. As part of my visit I sat in on an intro statistics class and did a demo for them (probably it was the candy weighing but I don’t remember). At that time I picked up an information sheet for the course: “Memorandum for Academic Year (AY) 13-02 MA206 Students, United States Military Academy.” Lots of…
  • Free Stan T-shirt to the first “little twerp” who does a (good) Bayesian analysis of Jon Lee Anderson’s height

    Andrew
    25 Sep 2014 | 1:55 pm
    I’d like to see a Stan implementation of the analysis presented in this comment by Gary from a year and a half ago. The post Free Stan T-shirt to the first “little twerp” who does a (good) Bayesian analysis of Jon Lee Anderson’s height appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • “Derek Jeter was OK”

    Andrew
    25 Sep 2014 | 12:56 pm
    Tom Scocca files a bizarrely sane column summarizing the famous shortstop’s accomplishments: Derek Jeter was an OK ballplayer. He was pretty good at playing baseball, overall, and he did it for a pretty long time. . . . You have to be good at baseball to last 20 seasons in the major leagues. . . . He was a successful batter in productive lineups for many years. . . . He was not Ted Williams or Rickey Henderson. Spectators did not come away from seeing Derek Jeter marveling at the stupendous, unimaginable feats of hitting they had seen. But he did lots and lots of damage. He got many big…
  • Waic for time series

    Andrew
    25 Sep 2014 | 6:24 am
    Helen Steingroever writes: I’m currently working on a model comparison paper using WAIC, and would like to ask you the following question about the WAIC computation: I have data of one participant that consist of 100 sequential choices (you can think of these data as being a time series). I want to compute the WAIC for these data. Now I’m wondering how I should compute the predictive density. I think there are two possibilities: (1) I compute the predictive density of the whole sequence (i.e., I consider the whole sequence as one data point, which means that n=1 in Equations (11) –…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    macroblog

  • On Bogs and Dots

    macroblog
    29 Sep 2014 | 12:25 pm
    Consider this scenario. You travel out of town to meet up with an old friend. Your hotel is walking distance to the appointed meeting place, across a large grassy field with which you are unfamiliar. With good conditions, the walk is about 30 minutes but, to you, the quality of the terrain is not so certain. Though nobody seems to be able to tell you for sure, you believe that there is a 50-50 chance that the field is a bog, intermittently dotted with somewhat treacherous swampy traps. Though you believe you can reach your destination in about 30 minutes, the better part of wisdom is to go it…
  • The Changing State of States' Economies

    macroblog
    15 Sep 2014 | 2:05 pm
    Timely data on the economic health of individual states recently came from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The new quarterly state-level gross domestic product (GDP) series begins in 2005 and runs through the fourth quarter of 2013. The map below offers a look at how states have fared since 2005 relative to the economic performance of the nation as a whole. Learn About Tableau It’s interesting to see the map depict an uneven expansion between the second quarter of 2005 and the peak of the cycle in the fourth quarter of 2007. By the fourth quarter of 2008, most parts of the…
  • What Kind of Job for Part-Time Pat?

    macroblog
    25 Aug 2014 | 12:35 pm
    As anyone who follows macroblog knows, we have been devoting a lot of attention recently to the issue of people working part-time for economic reasons (PTER), which means people who want full-time work but have not yet been able to find it. As of July 2014, the number of people working PTER stood at around 7.5 million. This level is down from a peak of almost 9 million in 2011 but is still more than 3 million higher than before the Great Recession. That doesn’t mean they won’t ever find full-time work in the future, but their chances are a lot lower than in the past. Consider Pat,…
  • Seeking the Source

    macroblog
    21 Aug 2014 | 1:32 pm
    As the early data on the third quarter begin to roll in, the (very tentative) conclusion is that nothing we know yet contradicts the consensus gross domestic product (GDP) forecast (from the Blue Chip panel, for example) of seasonally adjusted annualized Q3 growth in the neighborhood of 3 percent. The latest from our GDPNow model: The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2014 was 3.0 percent on August 19, up from 2.8 percent on August 13. The nowcast for inventory investment ticked up following the Federal Reserve's industrial…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • The deficit: blame foreigners

    chris dillow
    30 Sep 2014 | 5:57 am
    For a long time, I've argued that government borrowing is due is large part to the corporate sector's financial surplus - its excess of retained profits over capital spending. However, today's GDP figures show that something else is also happening. These show that the corporate sector's surplus has disappeared; in fact, in Q2, companies in aggregate ran a small deficit. However, although the declining corporate surplus has been accompanied by falling government borrowing, the latter is still large. Why? Statistically speaking, the main counterpart to government borrowing…
  • When failure is success

    chris dillow
    29 Sep 2014 | 5:35 am
    Here's a glorious example of the media's bubblethink: the Guardian's political reporters describe Osborne's stewardship of the economy as the Tories "strongest card." Let's just remind ourselves of the facts. Back in June 2010 the OBR forecast (pdf) that real GDP would grow by a cumulative 8.2% in between 2010 and 2013. In fact, it grew by only 3.1%. Partly because of this, the deficit is much larger now than expected. In 2010, the OBR forecast that PSNB in 2014-15 would be £37bn, or 2.1% of GDP. It now expects it to be £83.9bn, or 5.5% of GDP. This poses…
  • On correlation neglect

    chris dillow
    27 Sep 2014 | 2:11 am
    In the Times, Danny Finkelstein expresses disquiet about Operation Yewtree: "My word against some bloke after more than 20 years is good enough for you?" [Liz Kershaw] asked. The police wouldn't need other evidence to charge?"Well" replied the officer. "If it was just one girl obviously the Crown Prosecution Serivce would probably throw it out. But if more than one girl came forward, well..."The clearest statement I have ever seen of the dubious policy of using legally weak individual allegations to support each other. He's touching upon a widespread…
  • Bubblethink

    chris dillow
    26 Sep 2014 | 6:13 am
    In the Times, Phillip Collins says: Mr Miliband...would rather forget about the deficit and talk about something else. Alas, this is not a viable choice because reality keeps forcing its way in. Whoa there. Who's reality? It not the reality of the markets, where real gilt yields are negative and there's a shortage of safe assets. It's not the reality of an economy where the deficit is largely due to still-high unemployment and weak incomes growth. It's not the reality of an economy that's "crying out for public stimulus". And it's not the reality where…
  • Mansion Tax: bugs & features

    chris dillow
    25 Sep 2014 | 6:47 am
    Some of the opposition to Labour's proposed mansion tax seems to me to be confusing bugs with features. For example, in the Times (£) Janice Turner claims the tax will hit "shabby family houses" which have soared in price because of the property explosion. But this is precisely the virtue of land taxes. London's house prices have soared for several reasons, but none of them because of the efforts of their owners. It's fair to tax people if they reap a benefit with no effort. And as for £2m being "shabby", Hugo Rifkind's tweet was right: Anybody who…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Moneybox

  • At Long Last, eBay Sets PayPal Free

    Alison Griswold
    30 Sep 2014 | 4:02 pm
    Today eBay announced that it will spin PayPal off into a separate publicly traded company in 2015. Aside from being a major breakup, the move is a dramatic about-face for a company that, until very recently, had insisted its retail and payments operations were better off together. John Donahoe, eBay's chief executive, told Reuters that the decision was based on the feeling that “the pace of change in this competitive environment ... is accelerating and will continue to over the next three to five years.” That seems like a reasonable statement on Donahoe's part—Apple Pay, anyone?—but…
  • We May Never Know Whether Larry Ellison Flew a Fighter Jet Under the Golden Gate Bridge

    Alison Griswold
    29 Sep 2014 | 4:01 pm
    Larry Ellison, the billionaire and until very recently CEO of Oracle, is famous for his outlandish pursuits. He delights in shooting hoops aboard his yacht The Rising Sun (reportedly the world's 10th largest) and owns 97 percent of the Hawaiian island Lanai. In a recent profile otherwise devoted to that significant geographic purchase, the New York Times notes another oddity: "There's a rumor—the truth of which remains murky—that Ellison once flew a fighter jet under the Golden Gate Bridge." Could such a thing be true? The closest Ellison has ever come to addressing the epic…
  • Want to Be Stinking Rich? Major in Economics.

    Jordan Weissmann
    29 Sep 2014 | 12:06 pm
    Want to guarantee yourself a steady, well-paid career? Major in engineering. Want to take a shot at striking it rich? Then major in economics. At least, that's how I'd sum up the findings of a new report and interactive tool from the Hamilton Project, which looks at how the value of a college degree changes depending on your major. This is already a pretty well-explored subject. But the Hamilton study is especially nifty, because instead of calculating what the "typical" college graduate can expect to make over the course of a career, like many researchers do, it shows a whole range…
  • The Whimsical Adventures of a Tube of Burt’s Bees Lip Balm

    Alison Griswold
    26 Sep 2014 | 1:49 pm
    Burt's Bees, or everyone's favorite natural skin care company that's actually owned by a multibillion dollar corporation, is rolling out its first television campaign to remind America just how natural it is. The first commercial (above) is scheduled to air Monday, and is on YouTube with the title "Burt's Bees: Uncap Flavor." The 30-second episode begins with two cartoon bees dropping a tube of beeswax lip balm from the clouds and then follows it as other (surely natural) flavors like pink grapefruit, honey, and cherry get mixed in. Burt's Bees reportedly did not disclose its budget…
  • Bond King and Wall Street Eccentric Bill Gross Abandons His Throne

    Alison Griswold
    26 Sep 2014 | 9:46 am
    Bill Gross, the famed investor and "bond king" of Wall Street, said Friday that he was leaving Pacific Investment Management Co. for a position at Janus Capital Group, effective immediately. Janus, an investment firm based in Denver, that manages around $200 billion, is tiny compared with the $2 trillion bond empire that Gross built and co-founded in Pimco. But Pimco has also performed shakily in the past year with investors pulling more than $65 billion, and the firm was reportedly preparing to fire Gross on account of his controversial management style and erratic behavior. Gross'…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Economic Development BlogEconomic Development Blog -

  • Louisiana Economic Development Secures Biomedical Company Expansion With 425 Jobs

    Economic Development HQ.com
    30 Sep 2014 | 11:07 pm
    Biomedical company Renaissance RX is relocating and expanding its headquarters operations in New Orleans. Renaissance RX in New Orleans (photo – renrx.com) Renaissance RX, founded in 2012 at the New Orleans BioInnovation Center, is investing $8 million for moving to a larger 30,000-square-foot headquarters in the Central Business District in New Orleans itself. As part of the expansion, the company will create 425 new jobs with an average annual wage of $54,100, plus benefits. As per estimates from Louisiana Economic Development, the project will support the creation of another 407…
  • Businesses at Large NYC Economic Development Projects to be Covered Under Living Wage Provisions

    Economic Development HQ.com
    30 Sep 2014 | 10:20 pm
    NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio signed an executive order that raises the Living Wage to $13.13 per hour and expands its scope to include commercial tenants at NYC economic development projects receiving over $1 million in City subsidies. Mayor de Blasio signs NYC living wage executive order (photo – nyc.gov) The executive order, made through New York City’s Fair Wages for New Yorkers Act, will expand living wage provisions to an estimated 70 percent of all jobs at firms receiving support from City agencies. With the executive order in effect, the new living wage of $13.13 will be applicable…
  • Texas Small Business Awards for Three Austin Businesses

    Economic Development HQ.com
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:00 am
    Three small businesses in Austin were presented with Texas Small Business Awards at the 2014 Getting Connected event at the Palmer Events Center, which included a Governor’s Small Business Forum. Texas Small Business Award winner (photo – austintexas.gov) The event was hosted jointly by the City of Austin Economic Development Department’s Small Business Program, the Texas Workforce Commission, and Texas Wide Open for Business. The three winners – The Entermedia Group, Austin Sailboat Rentals, LLC, and D. Martin Homes, LLC, were picked by managers of various city departments…
  • Uber Expansion in Chicago to Create 420 New Jobs

    Economic Development HQ.com
    29 Sep 2014 | 10:48 pm
    Ridesharing giant Uber is expanding its regional headquarters in Chicago and will be adding 420 new jobs by the end of 2016. Uber Live in Chicago (photo – uber.com) Uber’s expansion announcement was made by Gov. Pat Quinn, who last month vetoed legislation (HB 4075) that would have imposed restrictions on Uber and prevented any further growth by the company in Illinois. Uber’s Chicago office serves as their headquarters for the company’s Central Region that includes the Midwest along with Canada and Texas. They already have 80 full-time employees in Chicago who oversee the…
  • California Governor Signs Economic Development Legislation

    Economic Development HQ.com
    29 Sep 2014 | 10:01 pm
    Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. signed a raft of bills intended to boost California economic development and strengthen the state’s business climate through everything from enhanced infrastructure project financing powers for local governments to a redefinition of distressed areas. CA Governor Jerry Brown (photo – ca.gov) One key piece of legislation that became law is AB 229, introduced by Assemblymember John A. Pérez. It authorizes local governments in California to form an infrastructure financing district for financing projects on a former military base. The law also allows funds…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Washington Center for Equitable Growth

  • Ebola Virus Talking Points: Wednesday Focus for October 1, 2014

    Brad DeLong
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:25 pm
    Lives lost from Ebola to date are tiny, even in west Africa, compared to HIV, TB, and malaria. Ebola still not (yet) the biggest public health problem in West Africa. Yes, the epidemic will spread to more countries. Ebola will not become the biggest public health problem in West Africa unless deaths reach the high seven figures–which they may: it is highly likely that deaths in the six figures are now baked in the cake. Unless the virus changes dramatically, we are almost surely safe. If you want to worry, worry that influenza or something already airborne will become more deadly, not…
  • Talking Points: Robots, Wages, Technology, Peter Thiel

    Brad DeLong
    30 Sep 2014 | 2:38 pm
    I was supposed to go on Bloomberg News this afternoon to talk about robots, wages, and is very smart but differently-thinking Peter Thiel. But 10 minutes before I was supposed to go on the air the CDC announced that a case of Ebola had been diagnosed in Dallas. So I had to play public health economist for five minutes… Very smart but differently-thinking Peter Thiel is a techno-optimist–he sees the extraordinary increases in human productivity that robots and computers make possible, and seems that is driving an enormous increase in typical wages in the future. I think he has…
  • Afternoon Must-Read: Paul Krugman: The Pimco Perplex

    Brad DeLong
    30 Sep 2014 | 12:41 pm
    Paul Krugman: The Pimco Perplex: “Why was Gross betting so heavily against Treasuries?… …Brad DeLong tries to rationalize Gross’s behavior in terms of a coherent story about an impending U.S. recovery…. But Gross wasn’t saying anything like that. Instead, he… warned that the impending spike in rates when QE2 ended would derail recovery. So why did he believe all that?… Since 2008 the basic logic of the economic situation has been that the private sector is trying to run a huge surplus, and the public sector isn’t willing to run a corresponding…
  • Things to Read on the Afternoon of September 30, 2014

    Brad DeLong
    30 Sep 2014 | 12:17 pm
    Must- and Shall-Reads: Charles Goodhart: It is time to shake up housing finance Helene Jorgensen and Dean Baker: The Affordable Care Act: A Family-Friendly Policy Martin Wolf: Even Beijing balks at price to pay for renminbi to become a reserve currency Joe Nocera: The Hole in Holder’s Legacy Michael Bauer: Options-Based Expectations of Future Policy Rates Erica Schoenberger: Los Angeles: Planning to Sprawl Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Joshua S. Rudolph and Lawrence H. Summers: Government Debt Management at the Zero Lower Bound Siri Srinivas: Why it takes 13.75 hours of minimum-wage…
  • Afternoon Must-Read: Dan Davies What’s Really Wrong With Bank Supervision

    Brad DeLong
    30 Sep 2014 | 12:15 pm
    Dan Davies: What’s really wrong with bank supervision: “The banks treat supervisors like punks, and the supervisors let them…. …The supervisor was, originally in the privacy of his office and talking to his own team, outraged. But then when he went to meet with the bank, all the vim and vinegar went out of him…. The problem, as everyone who is familiar with bank supervision knows, is that there is a cultural disinclination to challenge banks on their behaviour…. The biggest problem is that senior management of bank supervisors don’t have the supervisors’…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The Indian Economist

  • South Asia SFL Essay Contest

    TIE
    30 Sep 2014 | 7:30 pm
    In the quest to encourage deeper inquiry into our ‘obvi […] The post South Asia SFL Essay Contest appeared first on The Indian Economist.
  • Iraq in Tatters while India Falters: Isn’t it time for a revamped Iraqi policy?

    TIE
    29 Sep 2014 | 10:53 am
    By Mruganka Kashyap Edited by Madhavi Roy, Senior Edito […] The post Iraq in Tatters while India Falters: Isn’t it time for a revamped Iraqi policy? appeared first on The Indian Economist.
  • Indian Television

    TIE
    28 Sep 2014 | 7:30 am
    By Ishita Gopal Edited by Namrata Caleb, Senior Editor, […] The post Indian Television appeared first on The Indian Economist.
  • The Legion of Plaster Saints: A Case against Remix Religion

    TIE
    28 Sep 2014 | 7:30 am
    By Vatsal Khandelwal Edited by Shambhavi Singh,Senior e […] The post The Legion of Plaster Saints: A Case against Remix Religion appeared first on The Indian Economist.
  • Time for Digital India

    TIE
    28 Sep 2014 | 7:30 am
    By Kashyap Arora Edited by Madhavi Roy, Senior Editor, […] The post Time for Digital India appeared first on The Indian Economist.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Bankrate.com » Economics

  • Podcast: Avoid rising checking fees

    Doug Whiteman
    29 Sep 2014 | 3:05 am
    Bankrate finds checking charges are hitting new highs. Hear how to bypass those fees.
  • Jobs data: Can we see something else?

    Mark Hamrick
    29 Sep 2014 | 3:05 am
    the last jobs report left something to be desired. Will this week's be more appetizing?
  • Home sales: Fog lights needed

    Mark Hamrick
    24 Sep 2014 | 11:09 am
    Sales numbers for new and existing homes tell vastly different stories.
  • Podcast: Job market’s looking up?

    Doug Whiteman
    22 Sep 2014 | 3:05 am
    The U.S. unemployment rate has fallen back to pre-recession levels, but hiring hasn't been great. The number of new jobs in August was the lowest for any month this year and was far below analysts' expectations. So, if you need a job, it is going to be tough? Maybe not. In this week's podcast, Mark
  • Housing’s fits and ‘starts’

    Mark Hamrick
    22 Sep 2014 | 3:05 am
    This week brings more news about housing and an anniversary for Honda.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    FiveThirtyEight » Economics | FiveThirtyEight

  • Marriage Isn’t Dead — Yet

    Ben Casselman
    29 Sep 2014 | 10:09 am
    Fewer Americans of all stripes are getting married. But beneath that overarching trend lies an important distinction: Some groups are merely delaying marriage, while others are skipping it entirely.The Pew Research Center last week released a big report on the decline in marriage in the United States. In 1960, nearly 90 percent of 25- to 34-year olds had been married; today, that figure is barely 50 percent.1 The trend is remarkably broad, cutting across race, education, income and other characteristics.2But dig deeper into the numbers and they reveal a hidden divide: Affluent,…
  • The American Middle Class Hasn’t Gotten A Raise In 15 Years

    Ben Casselman
    22 Sep 2014 | 3:01 am
    In 1988, the typical American adult was 40 years old, white and married, with a high school diploma. If he was a man, he probably worked full time. If she was a woman, she probably didn’t.Twenty-five years later, Americans are older, more diverse and more educated. We are less likely to be married and more likely to live alone. Work is divided more evenly between the sexes. One thing that hasn’t changed? The income of the median U.S. household is still just under $52,000.The government’s release last week of income and poverty data for 2013 brought renewed attention to the apparent…
  • We Still Don’t Know What $1.6 Trillion Bought Us

    Andrew Flowers
    17 Sep 2014 | 9:47 am
    One of the biggest efforts the Federal Reserve has ever embarked on — a $1.6 trillion bond-buying program to stimulate the U.S. economy known as the third round of quantitative easing — is coming to an end next month. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen will likely discuss it Wednesday, when she presents the Fed’s latest economic forecast. Economists will be discussing it for decades.That’s because the program, dubbed QE3, was unprecedented. It wasn’t about spending money to get the U.S. out of a financial crisis or to prevent a double-dip recession. (Those were the…
  • The Economic Guide To Picking A College Major

    Ben Casselman
    12 Sep 2014 | 4:37 am
    The millions of American college students heading back to campus this month face a grim reality: A college degree is no guarantee of economic success. But through their choice of major, they can take at least some steps toward boosting their odds.The link between education and earnings is notoriously fraught, with cause and effect often difficult to disentangle. But a look at detailed data on college graduates by major reveals some clear messages: Don’t be pre-med if you aren’t planning to go to medical school; don’t assume that all “STEM” — science, technology, engineering…
  • The Poorest Corner Of Town

    Ben Casselman
    26 Aug 2014 | 5:50 am
    FERGUSON, Mo. — “I am!” “Mike Brown!” “I am!” “Mike Brown!”By midnight on Wednesday, this call-and-response, and others like it — “Hands up, don’t shoot,” “What’s his name? Mike Brown,” and the old standby, “No justice, no peace!” — had been going on for hours. An early-evening thunderstorm and the calm but firm interventions of local clergy helped make this perhaps the most peaceful night since Ferguson police officer Darren Wilson shot and killed 18-year-old Michael Brown 11 days earlier. Still, there were several moments when it felt like a…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Economics and everyday life at EconLife.com

  • Dude, Where’s My Tax Revenue?

    Elaine Schwartz
    1 Oct 2014 | 5:00 am
    Unpredictable human behavior for Colorado marijuana sales is but one example of why economic forecasting for tax revenue and GDP is inaccurate.
  • A Solution for Too Few Doctors: More Patience

    Elaine Schwartz
    30 Sep 2014 | 6:00 am
    Decreases in supply, increases in demand and legislative price ceilings are resulting in "network adequacy" problems for U.S. healthcare systems.
  • Internship Inquiry

    Econlife Editor
    29 Sep 2014 | 3:28 pm
    My son was just offered an internship.  However, he is wary about accepting it because the pay is minimal.  Should I encourage him to take the position? -Concerned Parent Dear Concerned Parent, Let’s examine the concept of internships through the lens of human capital. Today, an individual’s human capital is often used to measure their …
  • What Makes a City a Good Place to Live?

    Elaine Schwartz
    29 Sep 2014 | 5:05 am
    Good for the environment and innovation and a concentrated labor pool, top cities like Austin, Portland and Honolulu create positive externalities.
  • When You Can Expect to Be Most Creative

    Elaine Schwartz
    28 Sep 2014 | 4:00 am
    Knowing about how and when creative people achieve optimal productivity is important because of the connection between human capital and economic growth.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Vox - All

  • An interactive guide to finding your best student loan repayment option

    Libby Nelson
    1 Oct 2014 | 5:30 am
    It's that time of year: students who graduated this spring are about to start paying back their student loan bills. To pick the best repayment plan, you have to think about a lot of things — including the field you're working in and how you expect your salary to change in the next 10 years. A great place to start is the Education Department's repayment estimator. This pulls in information on your student loans to tell you what your payment will be under different plans. But it doesn't tell you how the career you pursue might affect those payments in the long run. Here are a few of the…
  • 24 maps and charts that explain marijuana

    German Lopez
    1 Oct 2014 | 5:00 am
    People have been growing and using marijuana for thousands of years. Ancient texts praised the plant for its versatility — it was used for its psychoactive and medical effects and to make clothes and paper. But in 1934, the US effectively banned the plant with strict taxes and regulations — a prohibition that, despite some major changes to the regulatory model, remains to this day. Now, that may be changing: public support for marijuana legalization in the US is at an all-time high. With two... Continue reading…
  • We have Ebola in the US but Africa remains most at risk

    Julia Belluz
    1 Oct 2014 | 4:42 am
    Last spring, most people would have guessed that this Ebola outbreak in West Africa would be over by the end of summer. Yet, nine months on, we're in the midst of the deadliest outbreak in history, and one that has defied the odds: it has lasted longer, killed more, and spread further than any previous outbreak. For the first time ever, an Ebola case has been diagnosed outside of Africa in the US. Right now, many are worried about where Ebola will turn up next. Where the outbreak is occurring now To understand where Ebola will spread, we need to look at where Ebola is occurring now. In…
  • A map of the Midwest, as estimated by 100 other maps

    Danielle Kurtzleben
    1 Oct 2014 | 4:30 am
    We've already given you pretty much everything you want to know about the Midwest in map and/or chart form. And it bears repeating: the question of exactly which states constitute the Midwest remains a contentious issue. At Radical Cartography, Yale history professor and cartographer Bill Rankin has put together a map of how others have defined the Midwest. And this isn't just a survey of random Americans; he looked at how 100 other maps from businesses, nonprofits, and government agencies define the Midwest, overlaid them, and checked out where they overlap. As it turns out, there's a lot…
  • Another court strikes down Obamacare subsidies in 36 states

    Adrianna McIntyre
    1 Oct 2014 | 4:00 am
    The Eastern District Court of Oklahoma ruled to strike down Obamacare's subsides on federal exchanges, consistent with a ruling in a related lawsuit earlier in the summer. The question at the center of these lawsuits is whether the text of the Affordable Care Act authorized subsidies — financial assistance offered to some people to help purchase health insurance — on all insurance exchanges, or only in those states that set up their own. In Obamacare's first year, 14 states and DC set up exchanges; the others defaulted to the federally-run Healthcare.gov. Without subsidies, private…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Commentary - Money, Banking and Financial Markets

  • The dollar is now everyone's problem

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    29 Sep 2014 | 6:13 am
    The global financial crisis started in 2007 when European banks came under increasing strain. If forced to specify the crisis kickoff, we would pick Thursday, August 9, the day that BNP Paribas halted redemptions from three investment funds because it couldn’t value their holdings of U.S. mortgages. Responding to the ensuing market scramble for liquidity, the ECB injected €95 billion that day into the European banking system and the Federal Reserve put $24 billion in theirs. Today, with the benefit of hindsight, these numbers appear quaint, but then they seemed enormous. (You can find a…
  • Investing in College

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    25 Sep 2014 | 5:31 am
    Most Americans want a college education, but it is expensive. On average, a four-year school costs about $25,000 per year, or $100,000 for a degree. That’s roughly half the median house price – a substantial investment. If you have to borrow to finance a college education – just like you borrow to own a house – is it really worth it?The answer is yes for most people. But the outcome is not free of risk, especially for those students who borrow heavily relative to their future income prospects.How should we do the analysis? The house price analogy is a useful place to start. You need a…
  • ECB and Fed: Separated at Birth?

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    22 Sep 2014 | 5:24 am
    Nearly 30 years ago, the satirical Spy magazine began posing the now-familiar question – “separated at birth?” – above lookalike images of two unconnected public figures. Donald Trump was paired with Elvis Presley, Marie Osmond with Monica Lewinsky, and the list goes on (and on). Had Spy found humor in juxtaposing institutions rather than personalities, it still wouldn’t have landed on the Fed and the ECB (which didn’t yet exist): their buildings look nothing alike.Yet, in terms of governance and communications, the Fed and the ECB have evolved over the past 15 years into virtual…
  • In Search of Better Credit Assessments

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    18 Sep 2014 | 5:28 am
    July 21, 2014 was the fourth birthday of the Dodd–Frank Act (DFA). It is maturing faster than a human, but slower than a dog. Of the nearly 400 rules that DFA requires regulators to write, just over half have been completed. At the end of August, the SEC finished another one – regarding credit rating agencies (CRAs). The result makes us wonder what took so long. (A scoreboard tracking DFA rule-making progress is here.)The Commission issued two specific rules, one on conflicts of interest and the other on transparency. The text itself runs more than 700 pages We read the 4,000-plus word…
  • Liquidity Regulation

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    15 Sep 2014 | 5:22 am
    Ever since Bagehot, central banks acting as lenders of last resort have tried to distinguish banks that are illiquid, who should be eligible for a loan, from banks that are insolvent, who should not. The challenge persists. As one analyst put it recently: “Liquidity and solvency are the heavenly twins of banking, frequently indistinguishable. An illiquid bank can rapidly become insolvent, and an insolvent bank illiquid.” The lesson is that the appropriate level of a bank’s capital and the liquidity of its assets are necessarily related.Forged in the crucible of the financial crisis,…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Credence Independent Advisors

  • Pound spikes as Mark Carney says first interest rate rise ‘getting closer’

    Jamil Al Maani
    26 Sep 2014 | 1:12 am
    Bank of England Governor warns households to prepare for higher borrowing costs. Households should prepare for higher borrowing costs in the coming months because the point at which interest rates will start to rise is “getting closer”, according to the Governor of the Bank of England. Mark Carney said strong growth and rapid job creation meant the judgment about when to start raising rates from a record low of 0.5pc had become “more balanced”. “Relative to the recent past, the economic outlook is much improved,” he said at a conference in Wales on Thursday. “While there is…
  • ECB’s Draghi expects euro zone to grow modestly in second half – paper

    Mark Boyes
    25 Sep 2014 | 12:21 am
    (Reuters) – European Central Bank President Mario Draghi expects the euro zone to grow modestly in the second half of the year, helped by the ECB’s recent stimulus steps, and has pledged to do more should it become necessary. In an interview published on Thursday by the Lithuanian business daily Verslo Zinios, Draghi warned that heightened geopolitical tensions could dampen business and consumer confidence. But he said sanctions imposed on and by Russia as a result of the Ukraine conflict had so far been limited in their impact on the euro zone economy. Draghi also said there was…
  • RBS cuts the price of shares in Citizens Financial sale

    Kareem Sattar
    24 Sep 2014 | 12:36 am
    Royal Bank of Scotland has cut the price of shares in the sale of a stake in US bank Citizens Financial Group. RBS will raise $3bn (£1.8bn) from selling the 25% stake, after pricing the shares at $21.50 each. Earlier this month it priced the shares in the range of $23 to $25 per share, potentially raising $3.5bn. The Financial Times reported that some investors were concerned about the outlook for Citizens and were unwilling to pay the higher price. In a statement RBS chief executive, Ross McEwan said: “The sale of Citizens is an integral part of the RBS capital plan. “Selling…
  • Asia relieved as China flash PMI beats low expectations

    Chris Ferguson
    22 Sep 2014 | 10:37 pm
    (Reuters) – Asian shares recouped early losses on Tuesday while commodities won a break from recent selling pressure after a reading on China’s massive factory sector outpaced the market’s bleak expectations. The HSBC flash reading on manufacturing (PMI) for September rose to 50.5, from 50.2 in August and confounding forecasts for a dip to 50.0. The market had been braced for something even worse and the relief helped Chinese stocks move into the black and the Australian dollar blip higher. The Asian giant is Australia’s single biggest export market and investors often…
  • He’s Dubai’s leading hotelier, and he has his eye on Britain’s North

    Thomas Crowe
    21 Sep 2014 | 10:50 pm
    Jumeirah Group’s chief executive says ties between Dubai and the UK are strong, but we still lack enough world class infrastructure. One of the Middle East’s most successful hoteliers, Gerald Lawless, group chief executive of Jumeirah Group, has witnessed first hand how the philosophy of “build and they will come” has transformed Dubai into a global tourism powerhouse. An example of this theory in practice is the Burj al Arab hotel in Dubai, which is currently celebrating its 15th year since first opening in the emirates. Initially critics complained that the towering structure,…
Log in