Economics

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  • Jamie Dimon: U.S. Must Create a “Safe Harbor” Where JPM’s Corruption Is Not “Punished”

    naked capitalism
    Yves Smith
    25 Oct 2014 | 12:12 am
    Yves here. The irony is delicious. Chief bank apologist Andrew Ross Sorkin accidentally elicited a damning admission from JP Morgan chieftan Jamie Dimon. But that also reveals Dimon's confidence that he is a member of a protected class, which sadly happens to be true.
  • Merrill Lynch: FOMC Preview

    Calculated Risk
    Bill McBride
    24 Oct 2014 | 5:50 pm
    From Merrill Lynch: The October FOMC meeting is likely to see the end of QE3 buying, as the Fed tapers the final $15bn in asset purchases. ... Tapering has been largely contingent on an improving labor market, and that has generally continued. The FOMC also has indicated multiple times that they are likely to end QE3 in October. Thus, it would take a significant adverse shock to change that plan, in our view.As for the statement language, we expect the “significant underutilization” language to once again remain in place — although we see a modest chance that is downgraded, say to…
  • Eurozone starts QE-lite as currency bloc faces fresh crisis

    Credence Independent Advisors
    Thomas Crowe
    21 Oct 2014 | 1:15 am
    The European Central Bank has begun snapping up covered bonds, one part of a three-pronged trident of measures aimed at reviving the flagging eurozone economy. The European Central Bank (ECB) has begun purchases of some French assets, in an attempt to revive a flagging eurozone. Monday’s purchases marked the start of the covered bond purchase programme (CBPP3), and is one of three new tools intended to stimulate the euro area economy. By buying covered bonds – bonds backed by underlying loans – the ECB intends to expand its balance sheet, and boost demand in the region. The ECB…
  • Why The ECB Probably Won't Utilize Quantitative Easing

    Benzinga Feeds
    Brianna Valleskey
    24 Oct 2014 | 8:55 am
    Alpari Market analyst Craig Erlam says that even though it seems like most people want to see quantitative easing from the European Central Bank, it probably won’t happen.
  • Economist Sees Slow, Solid Gains for Stocks

    eWallstreeter
    24 Oct 2014 | 8:05 pm
    Applied Global Macro Research’s Carsten Valgreen, who tracks the market with data that track the broad economy, sees stocks rising 5\% to 8\% annually over next three years.
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    Real Time Economics

  • 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

    Kathleen Madigan
    24 Oct 2014 | 12:46 pm
    The main event next week will be the Federal Reserve policy meeting, when it is widely expected that the Fed will announce the end of bond-buying.
  • The U.S. Housing Market in 10 Charts

    Nick Timiraos
    24 Oct 2014 | 11:48 am
    How’s the housing market doing? The answer is that it depends on your time frame. Looking back against 2011, when prices and sales hit bottom, the market is clearly improved. Compared with last year, the pace of sales gains have slowed, but they’re not getting dramatically worse, either. Prices are up around 5%, slower than the year before but enough to quiet fears of a new bubble. Sales are flat to down. Ten charts help provide some context to the housing figures for home sales, construction, inventory and prices that are reported every month. Think of it as a report card, one that’ll…
  • 5 Ways Falling Oil Prices Are Helping the Economic Numbers

    Kathleen Madigan
    24 Oct 2014 | 11:16 am
    Dropping energy prices—a big positive for the economy—are filtering through recent economic data. Here are five ways gasoline prices have been a factor in recent reports.
  • Will a Cheap Wedding Help Your Marriage? A Lesson in Causation

    Sarah Portlock
    24 Oct 2014 | 10:22 am
    New research studied whether the cost of a wedding and the marriage’s duration were related. Many interpreted the data as “cheap weddings make for long-lasting marriages.” Not necessarily. Getty Images Recent popular headlines seemed to suggest spending less on your wedding may help your marriage. Well, maybe. Two economists at Emory University — Hugo Mialon and Andrew Francis – looked into whether the cost of an engagement ring and wedding have anything to do with how long a marriage might last. The message proffered to lovebirds from the multibillion-dollar wedding industry is…
  • New-Home Sales Rose Last Month. Or Maybe They Fell. We Don’t Really Know.

    Ben Leubsdorf
    24 Oct 2014 | 8:39 am
    If you saw a public-opinion poll that had a 15.7% margin of error, you probably wouldn’t take it too seriously. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, for example, had a respectable 3.1% margin of error for registered voters. The Commerce Department’s measure of new home sales tends to be volatile, often are revised significantly and come with enormous margins of error. Sales rose 0.2% in September. Getty Images By that standard, Friday’s report on U.S. new-home sales isn’t worth much – at least on a month-to-month basis. The Commerce Department’s monthly estimates tend to…
 
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    naked capitalism

  • Adair Turner: The Consequences of Money-Manager Capitalism

    Yves Smith
    25 Oct 2014 | 12:48 am
    Yves here. This is a terrific interview with Lord Adair Turner, former head of the FSA. Most of it focuses on the things missed in contemporary economics, particularly macroeconomics, and how some disciplinary "back to the future" would be desirable. A major topic of discussion is how wealth is becoming as concentrated as it was in the 18th century, and the driver then and now was the disproportionately large role real estate has come to play. Then, it was income-producing agricultural land. Now it is urban property, bid up by domestic and international elites who want to live in particularly…
  • Jamie Dimon: U.S. Must Create a “Safe Harbor” Where JPM’s Corruption Is Not “Punished”

    Yves Smith
    25 Oct 2014 | 12:12 am
    Yves here. The irony is delicious. Chief bank apologist Andrew Ross Sorkin accidentally elicited a damning admission from JP Morgan chieftan Jamie Dimon. But that also reveals Dimon's confidence that he is a member of a protected class, which sadly happens to be true.
  • 2:00PM Water Cooler 10/24/14

    Lambert Strether
    24 Oct 2014 | 10:58 am
    Today's Water Cooler: Ebola, Hong Kong inside game, Hillary takes shot at banks, Google does good deed, pilot sky-writes "I heart Dana." With 767.
  • Class Traitors: How Ideological Brainwashing Gets Rich and Ordinary Americans to Undermine Their Economic Interest

    Yves Smith
    24 Oct 2014 | 6:55 am
    Linda Beale, of ataxingmatter, has written forcefully and persuasively about some of the propagandizing-accepted-as-gospel that the well-heeled use to advocate policies that advance their economic interests. For instance, as most Naked Capitalism readers appreciate, but a remarkably large swathe of the US population does not, tax cuts for big corporations are simply a transfer to the rich. From a post last year: I've argued frequently in the past that there is no there there--i.e., that lowering corporate tax rates will do nothing to create jobs. Instead, I've said, it will simply deliver an…
  • Links 10/24/14

    Yves Smith
    24 Oct 2014 | 3:55 am
 
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    Alpha.Sources

  • Another Eurozone Crisis Ahead?

    CV
    19 Oct 2014 | 5:52 am
    Calamities happen in financial markets, and usually when investors least expect and are least prepared for it. In the euro area, weak growth in the past six months and the inability of the ECB's measures to turn asset markets arounds have led investors to, once again, revisit their sovereign debt crisis playbooks.  This is understandable, but also now raises a fundamental question. If we are about to tumble into round 2 (or 3?) of the sovereign debt crisis, Eurozone bears may still prevail holding on to the recent trend in equities. But if we are not, the only trade that currently makes…
  • Where Are My Foreign Assets When I Need Them?

    CV
    17 Sep 2014 | 8:15 am
    How do you show the challenge of the eurozone periphery in one chart? Well, it is difficult but the representation below is a good pick in my view. A structurally negative net foreign asset position is a very tough hurdle to overcome when in a currency union, saddled with poor demographics and need net external demand to boost national income. Think of the periphery as Japan and Germany without(!) the strong net foreign asset position.  These countries seem to have grown old before getting rich and without the ability to devalue in nominal terms, the outlook is not good.   …
  • The Italian Economy Remains Stuck ...

    CV
    15 Sep 2014 | 10:38 am
    Italy has the dubious honor of the being the first eurozone economy to re-enter recession after the decidedly tepid recovery since 2012. This is bad news for an economy struggling with steadily increasing government debt and no real solution on how to pay off its mounting liabilities. What is even worse is that it looks as if the economy is not about to exit its malaise anytime soon. Picture is courtesey of Pantheon Macroeconomics and has also been posted on Twitter.   
  • Weak economic data would test bonds in the periphery

    CV
    7 Aug 2014 | 1:50 am
    Volatility has engulfed the eurozone in the past few weeks, but bond markets remain a relative sea of calm. This could change quickly however, if the economic data in the periphery takes a serious turn for the worse. Given the absence of active balance sheet expansion at the ECB, Q3 PMIs have suddenly taken in critical importance   Picture is courtesey of Pantheon Macroeconomics and has also been posted on Twitter. 
  • Is the Euro Overvalued?

    CV
    16 Jul 2014 | 7:43 am
    Well, yes if you ask Mr. Draghi it is, but not if you look at fundamental long run charts. Looking at both the REER and the trade weighted index, the euro is currently bang on average. Obviously, the ECB would like a weaker currency, but the best way to reach that objective will probably be to do nothing. It is difficult to expect a weaker currency amid a cyclical recovery with strong portfolio inflows and a current account surplus.    ---  Pictures are courtesey of Pantheon Macroeconomics and have also been posted at Twitter. 
 
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    re: The Auditors

  • McKenna At Medium: Two New Columns For the Bull Market Collection

    Francine
    18 Oct 2014 | 4:50 pm
    You may have seen via my LinkedIn page that I’m back at Medium.com. (I posted for three months last year under the “By The Numbers” collection to help kick off the site.) This time I’m part of a group effort, edited by Evan Hanson called “Bull Market”. The team includes former Reuters finance blogger now Fusion editor Felix Salmon, MSNBC commentator Alexis Goldstein, and University of Connecticut law professor and blogger at The Baseline Scenario James Kwak. My first two posts are about taxes—offshore tax avoidance and Amazon’s allergic reaction to…
  • Speaking Engagements/Conferences

    Francine
    18 Oct 2014 | 4:40 am
    I’m on the road visiting universities, attending select conferences and forums and speaking to groups of all kinds. If you would like me to visit your university and your accounting/audit program, please write soon to lock in fall and winter dates. Contact me at fmckenna@mckennapartners.com to schedule a presentation at your university, conference, firm or for a private briefing. Coming Up: November 20-21, 2014, PCAOB Standing Advisory Group open meeting. Attending as media. Washington DC. December 3-4, 2014, Illinois CPA Society’s 2014 Accounting & Auditing Conference, Wednesday,…
  • 18-Year Old Anthony Canalungo Questions Herbalife, And PwC, On Exchange Rates

    Francine
    23 Sep 2014 | 4:55 pm
    Anthony Canalungo ( @Canalungo on Twitter) is an 18 year old college student and young investor that has been following the Herbalife story since 2012. He says he’s been a follower of Benjamin Graham since the age of 15 and describes himself predominantly as a value investor. He’s a member of Leaders Investment Club and is a founding member of a non-profit in his community. Anthony recently wrote a really interesting article about Herbalife’s financials in Venezuela that was posted on a blog called Quoth The Raven. In the post, Anthony raises an interesting issue that I have…
  • More On My Reuters Breakingviews Column: The Andersen Tax Name Grab

    Francine
    8 Sep 2014 | 10:56 am
    News broke on September 2 that a firm, made up of ex-Arthur Andersen tax partners and called Wealth and Tax Advisory Services LLC, bought the Andersen portion of the Arthur Andersen name from what’s left of that firm and will now call itself Andersen Tax. The news, as you would expect, garnered much media attention. It says something—but maybe not what the firm’s partners think— that so many years after the destruction of Arthur Andersen by criminal indictment—twelve years—so many people care. Every major media and trade publication as well as several blogs wrote about it.
  • Auditor Independence: Another Case of Misplaced Loyalty

    Francine
    2 Sep 2014 | 5:33 am
    I wrote a couple of weeks ago about the PwC Director, now partner, who is mixed up in PwC’s fine and sanctions for its lack of independence and objectivity at consulting client Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. PwC consulted with the bank about money laundering allegations, at the request of regulators who were looking for reassurances from PwC that the bank was now complying with the law. The New York Times article about New York Department of Financial Services Superintendent Benjamin Lawsky’s enforcement action against PwC says that “when it was time for Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi to file…
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    The American Prospect

  • Will Elizabeth Warren Run? Her New Challenge to Hillary Clinton

    Robert Kuttner
    24 Oct 2014 | 12:43 pm
    This article is an updated version of "What Clinton Could Learn From Warren," in the Fall 2014 issue of The American Prospect magazine. Senator Elizabeth Warren stunned the political world this week with her comment in an interview with People magazine, which seemed to leave the door open for a presidential run in 2016. Asked whether she would run, Warren said, ambiguously, “I don’t think so,” but added, “If there’s any lesson I’ve learned in the last five years, it’s don’t be so sure about what lies ahead. There are amazing doors that could open.” Well! That certainly set…
  • We know College Feminists Care About Sexual Assault. But What About Abortion?

    Rachel M. Cohen
    24 Oct 2014 | 8:03 am
    In the past three years, more abortion restrictions have been enacted in the United States than in the entire previous decade. At the same time, 85 colleges and universities are now under federal investigation for their handling of sexual violence. While these two issues are not divergent, campus feminists have devoted much of their energy to challenging their universities’ failure to adequately handle sexual assault cases—often at the expense of abortion rights advocacy. But the growing threats to reproductive justice—like the Texas law that could shut down most of the state’s…
  • Gaga and Bennett: Making a Great American Art Form Hip Again

    Harold Meyerson
    24 Oct 2014 | 7:28 am
    Tony Bennett has long been as much a jazz singer as a pop singer, though I readily acknowledge that the distinction between the two has always been fuzzy. This has been particularly true throughout the second coming of his career—his rise again to popular and critical acclaim over the past two decades. The onetime crooner and belter of “I Left My Heart in San Francisco” can’t quite hold those long notes like he used to or glissando up and down the scale without an occasional unintended bump. The marvel is, he’s still a great singer at age 88, in no small part by jazzing his singing…
  • Rand Paul Continues Record of Brilliant Media Manipulation

    Paul Waldman
    23 Oct 2014 | 10:44 am
    As I've probably made clear by now, I am 1) abundantly skeptical of Rand Paul's ability to be president of the United States, and only somewhat less skeptical of his ability to win the presidency; and 2) in tremendous admiration of Paul's skill at working the media. There will be abundant time to explore #1 in the months ahead, but today offers us yet another example of #2. Paul, you see, is convening a super-secret meeting of his brain trust to discuss his upcoming presidential campaign, and somehow, news of the meeting found its way to the National Journal and reporter Shane Goldmacher:…
  • France and Italy Tell Germany: Take Your Austerity and Stuff It

    Robert Kuttner
    23 Oct 2014 | 6:42 am
    (Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire - Press Association via AP Images) At the Nato Summit in Newport, South Wales, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francoise Hollande gather to watch a flypast of military aircraft from Nato member countries on the final day of the summit at the Celtic Manor on Friday, September 5, 2014. There was a bit of good news from Europe last week. Two of the nations that desperately need some respite from austerity essentially told German Chancellor Merkel to stuff it. France, under pressure from Germany and the European…
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    Robert Reich

  • Berkeley vs. Big Soda I got a call the other day from a stooge...

    22 Oct 2014 | 7:03 pm
    Berkeley vs. Big Soda I got a call the other day from a stooge of Big Soda who was doing a “push poll” — trying to get me and all my neighbors to vote against Berkeley’s proposed one-cent-per-ounce tax on sugary soft drinks. Big Soda is pulling out all the stops — and the money — to prevent the tax, because Big Soda knows that if it fails in Berkeley it can’t pass anywhere. Yet, just like tobacco, we know a small tax reduces consumption. And just like tobacco, consumption of sugary soft drinks is a huge health problem. One out of three American kids is obese and at risk of…
  • Getting a Grip on Ebola

    20 Oct 2014 | 5:06 pm
    We have to get a grip. Ebola is not a crisis in the United States. One person has died and two...
  • Why Government Spends More Per Pupil at Elite Private Universities than at Public Universities

    13 Oct 2014 | 11:26 am
    Imagine a system of college education supported by high and growing government spending on elite...
  • Why We Allow Big Pharma to Rip Us Off

    5 Oct 2014 | 6:43 pm
    According to a new federal database put online last week, pharmaceutical companies and device makers...
  • Why the Economy is Still Failing Most Americans

    28 Sep 2014 | 2:15 pm
    I was in Seattle, Washington, recently, to congratulate union and community organizers who helped...
 
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    Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

  • Liveblogging World War II: October 25, 1944: WHERE OH WHERE IS TASK FORCE 34?

    J. Bradford DeLong
    24 Oct 2014 | 10:15 pm
    James D. Hornfischer: The Last Stand of the Tin Can Sailors: At 6:35 A.M., as sunrise revealed a grayed-out and hazy dawn, the most powerful concentration of naval gun power the Japanese empire had ever assembled reordered its geometry in preparation for daylight operations. Twenty-five miles to Taffy 3’s north, lookouts on the heavy cruiser Chokai and light cruiser Noshiro reported aircraft approaching. So Halsey’s planes were coming after all, Takeo Kurita must have thought. Almost simultaneously, cat-eyed lookouts on the battleship Nagato spied masts on the horizon visible here and…
  • Jeff Madrick, Josh Bivens, Brad DeLong, Ylan Mui: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America

    J. Bradford DeLong
    24 Oct 2014 | 2:49 pm
    EPI: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America: "
  • Ted Cruz’s Deputy Chief Nick Muzin Blamed Ebola on Obamacare. Really

    J. Bradford DeLong
    24 Oct 2014 | 2:17 pm
    Chris Caesar: Ted Cruz’s Deputy Chief Blamed Ebola on Obamacare. Really
  • For the Weekend: The Drop...

    J. Bradford DeLong
    24 Oct 2014 | 2:16 pm
    Tom Hardy is amazing...
  • Noted for Your Afternoon Procrastination for October 24, 2014

    J. Bradford DeLong
    24 Oct 2014 | 12:50 pm
    Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog On Jeff Madrick et al.: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Morning Must-Read: Jeff Weintraub: China's Man in Hong Kong Explains the Problem with Democracy-It's a Threat to Capitalism - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Lunchtime Must-Read: Gavyn Davies: China’s Slowdown Is Secular, Not Cyclical - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Morning Must-Read: Alan Zibel: Low Down Payments Are Coming Back - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Morning Must-Read: Michela Giorcelli and Petra…
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    Calculated Risk

  • Merrill Lynch: FOMC Preview

    Bill McBride
    24 Oct 2014 | 5:50 pm
    From Merrill Lynch: The October FOMC meeting is likely to see the end of QE3 buying, as the Fed tapers the final $15bn in asset purchases. ... Tapering has been largely contingent on an improving labor market, and that has generally continued. The FOMC also has indicated multiple times that they are likely to end QE3 in October. Thus, it would take a significant adverse shock to change that plan, in our view.As for the statement language, we expect the “significant underutilization” language to once again remain in place — although we see a modest chance that is downgraded, say to…
  • Bank Failure #16 in 2014: National Republic Bank of Chicago

    Bill McBride
    24 Oct 2014 | 3:41 pm
    From the FDIC: State Bank of Texas, Dallas, Texas, Assumes All of the Deposits of the National Republic Bank of Chicago, Chicago, IllinoisAs of June 30, 2014, The National Republic Bank of Chicago had approximately $954.4 million in total assets and $915.3 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $111.6 million. ... The National Republic Bank of Chicago is the 16th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the fifth in Illinois. Bank failure friday two weeks in a row!
  • Lawler on New Home Sales: Silly-Looking August Guess Revised Down Sharply in the West – As Expected

    Bill McBride
    24 Oct 2014 | 12:30 pm
    From housing economist Tom Lawler:Census “guesstimated” that new SF home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 467,000 in September, up 0.2% from August’s downwardly-revised (by 7.5% to 466,000) pace. Sales estimates for June and July were also revised downward (by 2.4% and 5.4%, respectively). Not surprisingly (see LEHC, 9/24/2014), the biggest downward revision in sales for August was in the West region, where sales were revised downward by almost 20%.Census also estimated that the inventory of new SF homes for sale at the end of September was 207,000 on a seasonally…
  • Comments on September New Home Sales

    Bill McBride
    24 Oct 2014 | 9:31 am
    The new home sales report for September was slightly above expectations at 467 thousand on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR).  With the downward revision to August sales, sales for September were at the the highest sales rate since July 2008.Sales for the previous three months (June, July and August) were revised down. Earlier: New Home Sales increased slightly to 467,000 Annual Rate in SeptemberThe Census Bureau reported that new home sales this year, through September, were 338,000, Not seasonally adjusted (NSA). That is up 2.4% from 330,000 during the same period of 2013…
  • New Home Sales increased slightly to 467,000 Annual Rate in September

    Bill McBride
    24 Oct 2014 | 7:00 am
    The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 467 thousand. August sales were revised down from 504 thousand to 466 thousand, and July sales were revised down from 427 thousand to 404 thousand."Sales of new single-family houses in September 2014 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 467,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.2 percent above the revised August rate of 466,000 and is 17.0 percent above the September…
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    Crooked Timber

  • The Tomb of the Unknown Deserter

    Henry
    24 Oct 2014 | 12:55 pm
    Last year, I wrote a post building on James Scott’s argument that we should memorialize deserters. Today, I see a piece at Deutsche Welle saying that Austria is doing just that. A monument to deserters from the German army during World War II has been unveiled in central Vienna. This follows decades of controversy over recognition and compensation in Austria. The monument on Ballhausplatz in central Vienna, right by the Chancellery, was unveiled on Friday in the presence of Austrian President Heinz Fischer and representatives of the government and victims’ rights groups. ……
  • Ride a Painted Pony, Bounce, Skate, Rock, Roll

    Belle Waring
    24 Oct 2014 | 5:48 am
    It’s important that you listen to these important songs now, because of their great import. I like the Shirley Bassey song because, when John and I were first married, it was the signature tune of one of our favorite DJs. He had a club night where he played goofy twinkly commercially popular 60s and 70s music, and this was the “get everybody out on the floor” song. The Vaughan Mason & Crew tune (Disco Remix) is a roller disco song thankyouverymuch. Not merely normal-disco. It is so good. SO GOOD. It sounds like some Derrick Carter-ness but it’s from 1979. See?
  • David Brooks, Edmund Burke, and Me

    Corey Robin
    23 Oct 2014 | 5:42 am
    David Brooks: Burke is famous for his belief in gradual change….I’m sticking to my Burkean roots. Change should be steady, constant and slow. Society has structural problems, but they have to be reformed by working with existing materials, not sweeping them away in a vain hope for instant transformation. Edmund Burke on the East India Company: It is fixed beyond all power of reformation…this body, being totally perverted from the purposes of its institution, is utterly incorrigible; and because they are incorrigible, both in conduct and constitution, power ought to be taken…
  • Gough Whitlam has died

    John Quiggin
    23 Oct 2014 | 3:23 am
    Gough Whitlam, Prime Minister of Australia from 1972 to 1975, died on Tuesday. More than any other Australian political leader, and as much as any political figure anywhere, Gough Whitlam embodied social democracy in its ascendancy after World War II, its high water mark around 1970 and its defeat by what became known as neoliberalism in the wake of the crises of the 1970s. Whitlam entered Parliament in 1952, having served in the Royal Australian Air Force during the War, and following a brief but distinguished legal career. Although Labor had already chosen a distinguished lawyer (HV Evatt)…
  • Adolph Eichmann, Funny Man

    Corey Robin
    21 Oct 2014 | 9:35 pm
    One of the criticisms often made of Hannah Arendt’s account of the Eichmann trial was that she found Eichmann funny. Throughout Eichmann in Jerusalem, Arendt can barely contain her laughter at the inadvertent comedy of the man, which was connected to her claim of his banality and to the ironic tone she adopted throughout the text. Many at the time found her tone flippant and her irony distasteful; since then, her appreciation of Eichmann’s buffoonery has been seen as a sign, to her critics, of her haughty indifference to the suffering he inflicted. Yet, in reading about the…
 
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    Dealbreaker

  • Write-Offs: 10.24.14

    Dealbreaker
    24 Oct 2014 | 2:00 pm
    $$$ About 25 Eurozone Banks to Fail ECB Stress Tests [WSJ] $$$ Fed’s $4 Trillion Holdings to Boost Growth Beyond End of QE [Bloomberg] $$$ Two bullet-proof doors and one small sign are the only clues that this is the control center of a financier who’s helped turn some of Vladimir Putin’s closest allies into… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.
  • JPMorgan Tried To Find A Legal Way To Hire Chinese Powerbrokers’ Children

    Jon Shazar
    24 Oct 2014 | 12:30 pm
    Eight years ago, there was much handwringing over the plan. Such as, won’t this violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and lead to an extremely embarrassing criminal investigation one day? And, how we will make sure that the brain-dead progeny of the people we need don’t lose us too much money? When legal and compliance… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, JPMorgan Chase, old college try
  • Lucrative Sinecure Just Can’t Compete With Screwing With Bill Ackman

    Jon Shazar
    24 Oct 2014 | 12:00 pm
    For more than a year, Herbalife’s biggest booster got his kicks kicking Bill Ackman while he was down, gleefully touting how he had been proven right about the world’s favorite diet shakes time and time again, while the Pershing Square founder had been proven the opposite, also over and over again. But at the beginning… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: Bill Ackman, can't quit fucking with you, Herbalife, Pivotal Research Group, Tim Ramey
  • Hedge Fund Manager Not Impressed By Marissa Mayer’s Victory Speech

    Jon Shazar
    24 Oct 2014 | 11:00 am
    The embattled Yahoo! chief, in the wake of the first good news she’s gotten in the past two years, told activist hedge funds where to stick it this week. Well, one such hedge fund manager is returning the favor. The market has “seen through” Mayer and Yahoo’s board of directors, Burbank said. Within the next… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: John Burbank, Marissa Mayer, NOT GOOD ENOUGH, Passport Capital, transparent horseshit, Yahoo
  • Ray Dalio Will Not Have Some 2-Bit Ex-Employees Trading On His Name, Not Even If They’ve Got The Moves Of Fred Astaire

    Bess Levin
    24 Oct 2014 | 9:30 am
    Bridgewater Associates sued Howard Wang and Wenquan “Robert” Wu in federal court in Manhattan on Tuesday, saying they tried to publicize their newly-formed hedge fund, Convoy Investments, by lying about their former roles at Bridgewater. Bridgewater claims that Wang and Wu tried to pass themselves off as “former key figures responsible for core aspects of… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: ballroom dancing, Bridgewater, Bridgewater Associates, hedge fund mangers, Lawsuits, Ray Dalio
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    Econbrowser

  • Guest Contribution: Is the US Current Account Deficit Problem Over?

    Menzie Chinn
    24 Oct 2014 | 7:30 am
    Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99. The latest World Economic Outlook, released this month by the International Monetary Fund, warns that even though global “flow imbalances” are lower than a few years ago, they are still substantial and so US liabilities to foreigners continue to rise each year. “Stock imbalances” remain a problem. Figure 4.1 from Chapter 4, World Economic Outlook, October…
  • Philadelphia Fed Coincident Indices: Kansas and Wisconsin Continue to Lag Nation

    Menzie Chinn
    23 Oct 2014 | 7:25 am
    Low ranked by ALEC-Laffer, California and Minnesota continue to power along, as shown in data released today by the Philadelphia Fed. Figure 1: Log coincident indices for Minnesota (blue), Wisconsin (bold red), Kansas (green), California (teal), United States (black), seasonally adjusted, all normalized to 2011M01=0. Source: Philadelphia Fed and author’s calculations. Another way of visualizing the data is to show the cumulative growth relative to that of the United States. This is shown in Figure 2. Figure 2: Log coincident indices for Minnesota (blue), Wisconsin (bold red), Kansas…
  • Has Wisconsin Employment Growth Really Been Normal over the Last Four Years?

    Menzie Chinn
    22 Oct 2014 | 4:37 pm
    Integration, cointegration and the evaluation of time series data for public policy analysis. As my first economics teacher said, “ya gotta be careful”. Bruce Thompson at Urban Milwaukee’s Data Wonk writes: …the data shows Gov. Walker has had little impact, positive or negative, on how the state grows jobs. Dr. Thompson appeals to data (which is good and a vast improvement over a lot of commentary), and focuses on the ratio of Wisconsin to national nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment (the documentation is unclear, but my graph using NFP looks the same as his, so…
  • Competitiveness, Exchange Rates, Spillovers, the End of Original Sin, and More

    Menzie Chinn
    20 Oct 2014 | 8:59 pm
    Those are the topics covered in the West Coast Workshop on International Finance and Open Economy Macroeconomics, held October 17, 2014, and co-organized by Helen Popper (University of Santa Clara) and Michael Hutchison (UC Santa Cruz). The agenda is here (co-sponsored by SCU, UCSC, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco). The workshop includes papers on that look at stability and international linkages from many angles. The morning sessions include work — such Aizenman, Chinn, and Ito, and Miyamoto and Nguyen — that examine the impact conditions in the major economies have on…
  • Wisconsin Employment: 108.6K below Trend Required to Hit Walker’s 250K Target

    Menzie Chinn
    20 Oct 2014 | 1:26 pm
    The Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development released without fanfare (well, there is no press release I see on the DWD media website as of 3pm CDT today) the last figures to be available before the election. They indicate September private nonfarm employment 108.6 thousands below the trend consistent with the Governor’s target (recommitted to a mere year ago) of 250 thousands net new jobs. Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment seasonally adjusted (red), trend consistent with Walker’s promise (gray), and Wisconsin Economic Outlook forecast, interpolated (green).
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    EconLog: Library of Economics and Liberty

  • I'm 90 Percent American and 10 Percent Canadian

    David Henderson
    24 Oct 2014 | 11:54 am
    (October 24, 2014 11:54 AM, by David Henderson) You can take the boy out of Canada, but you can't (completely) take Canada out of the boy As a U.S. federal employee, I'm going through a security clearance for the first time in years. The guy who came to... (7 COMMENTS)
  • An Anarcho-Capitalist Disney Movie I'd Like to See: Who Paid for The Palace?

    Art Carden
    24 Oct 2014 | 9:28 am
    (October 24, 2014 09:28 AM, by Art Carden) WARNING: CONTAINS FROZEN SPOILERS. My daughter is four years old, which means we consume a lot of Disney Princess merchandise: movies, toys, etc. As one might expect, everyone in our house basically knows every word to every song from Frozen.... (12 COMMENTS)
  • Compulsory Attendance IVs Reconsidered

    Bryan Caplan
    24 Oct 2014 | 12:02 am
    (October 24, 2014 12:02 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Using compulsory attendance laws to estimate the causal effect of education on outcomes has been hot in economics for over a decade.  But I was always a skeptic.  The idea that minimum schooling leaving laws are exogenous is bizarre, yet... (1 COMMENTS)
  • IMF's Loungani: Demand for Labor is Downward-Sloping

    David Henderson
    23 Oct 2014 | 4:45 pm
    (October 23, 2014 04:45 PM, by David Henderson) I was on the road from Sunday a.m. to late last night and thus my sparser than usual blogging. I taught classes in Patuxent River, MD on Monday, Norfolk, VA on Tuesday, and Arlington, VA on Wednesday, with lots of... (15 COMMENTS)
  • The great sin, the even greater sin, and the enlightened path

    Scott Sumner
    23 Oct 2014 | 2:49 pm
    (October 23, 2014 02:49 PM, by Scott Sumner) The title is my pathetic attempt to imitate Miles Kimball and Noah Smith, who sometimes post on religion. This won't be about religion; it's about monetary policy. Oh wait . . . In the 1970s, US policymakers knew that inflation... (17 COMMENTS)
 
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    Economist's View

  • Links for 10-25-14

    Mark Thoma
    25 Oct 2014 | 12:06 am
    Monetary policy and inequality in the US - Vox Redistribution between generations - mainly macro China Will Keep Growing. Just Ask the Soviets. - NYTimes.com The Profits-Investment Disconnect - Paul Krugman Yellen´s Inequality Speech Revealed a "Closet Conservative" - Brookings Interview: Prof. David Vines, Oxford University - AceMaxx-Analytics Is the US Current Account Deficit Problem Over? - Econbrowser Which David Brooks Should We Listen To? - CityEconomist David Brooks' Great Adventures in Fantasy Land - Beat the Press Keeping Up with the Joneses on Energy Conservation -…
  • 'What Path for Development in Africa -- and Elsewhere?'

    Mark Thoma
    24 Oct 2014 | 11:11 am
    Tim Taylor: What Path for Development in Africa -- and Elsewhere?: As I've pointed out from time to time, the countries of  sub-Saharan Africa have been experiencing genuine conomic growth for the last decade or so, and not just in oil- and mineral-exporting countries, creating what is by the standards of developing economies an expanding middle class. But here comes Dani Rodrik to ask some realistic tough questions in his essay, "Why an African Growth Miracle Is Unlikely," written for the Fourth Quarter 2014 issue of the Milken Institute Review. Rodrik also argues this…
  • Market Power, 'the Profits-Investment Disconnect,' and the Mal-Distribution of Income

    Mark Thoma
    24 Oct 2014 | 10:02 am
    Maybe we'll finally start discussing something I've been writing about for years with little traction, how market power affects the distribution of income (the disconnect between income and the contribution to final product that occurs when market power exists): The Profits-Investment Disconnect, by Paul Krugman: I caught a bit of CNBC in the locker room this morning, and they were talking about stock buybacks. Oddly — or maybe not that oddly, given my own experiences with the show — nobody brought up what I would have thought was the obvious question. Profits are very high, so…
  • 'Redistribution Between Generations'

    Mark Thoma
    24 Oct 2014 | 9:41 am
    Simon Wren-Lewis: Redistribution between generations: I ought to start a series on common macroeconomic misunderstandings. (I do not watch zombie films.) ... Here is one that crops up fairly regularly - that government debt does not involve redistribution between generations. The misunderstanding here is obvious once you see that generations overlap. ...
  • Paul Krugman: Plutocrats Against Democracy

    Mark Thoma
    24 Oct 2014 | 12:24 am
    "What's a plutocrat to do?": Plutocrats Against Democracy, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: ...The ... political right has always been uncomfortable with democracy..., there is always an undercurrent of fear that the great unwashed will vote in left-wingers who will tax the rich, hand out largess to the poor, and destroy the economy. ... This is a fantasy. ... All advanced nations have had substantial welfare states since the 1940s... But you don’t, in fact, see countries descending into tax-and-spend death spirals — and no, that’s not what ails Europe. Still, while…
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    EconTalk

  • Continuing Conversation... Luigi Zingales on Incentives and the Potential Capture of Economists by Special Interests

    Amy Willis
    21 Oct 2014 | 10:09 am
    This week, Russ Roberts welcomed back University of Chicago's Luigi Zingales to talk about a recent essay in which Zingales argues that economists are subject to many of the same sorts of biases as regulators because of the incentives they face. And now we want to hear from you. Use the following questions to reflect on this episode, assign them to students in your class, use them to strike up conversation at your next social gathering. No matter how, we love to hear from you. Check Your Knowledge: 1. What is "regulatory capture," and how can academic economists be similarly "captured," even…
  • Luigi Zingales on Incentives and the Potential Capture of Economists by Special Interests

    Russell Roberts
    20 Oct 2014 | 3:30 am
    Luigi Zingales of the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about Zingales's essay, "Preventing Economists' Capture." Zingales argues that just as regulators become swayed by the implicit incentives of dealing with industry executives, so too with economists who study business: supporting business interests can be financially and professionally rewarding. Zingales outlines the different ways that economists benefit from supporting business interests and ways that economists might work to prevent that influence or at lease be aware of it. Play…
  • Continuing Conversation... Russ Roberts and Mike Munger on How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life

    Amy Willis
    14 Oct 2014 | 6:06 pm
    This week, there was a new sheriff in town! Russ Roberts was the guest in this week's episode, while EconTalk fave Mike Munger stood in as interviewer. The subject was Roberts's new book, How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life. Whether your life changes have already happened or are still pending, we want to hear from you. Use the prompts below to share your thoughts in the comments, use them as a classroom assignment, or use them to spark conversation at a cocktail party. But do let us know your thoughts; we love to hear from you. Check Your Knowledge: 1. How does Roberts distinguish between…
  • Russ Roberts and Mike Munger on How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life

    Russell Roberts
    13 Oct 2014 | 3:30 am
    EconTalk host Russ Roberts is interviewed by long-time EconTalk guest Michael Munger about Russ's new book, How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life: An Unexpected Guide to Human Nature and Happiness. Topics discussed include how economists view human motivation and consumer behavior, the role of conscience and self-interest in acts of kindness, and the costs and benefits of judging others. The conversation closes with a discussion of how Smith can help us understand villains in movies. Play Time: 1:04:23 How do I listen to a podcast? Download Size:29.5 MB Right-click or Option-click, and select…
  • Continuing Conversation... David Autor on the Future of Work and Polanyi's Paradox

    Amy Willis
    8 Oct 2014 | 7:02 am
    Are you concerned that robots will take your job? Could you write out complete instructions for riding a bike? This week, EconTalk host Russ Roberts explored these questions and more with MIT's David Autor. Now we'd like to hear from you. Please use the questions below as prompts for the comments section. Or use them in your offline interactions. Either way, we're anxious to broaden the conversation. We love to hear from you. Check Your Knowledge: 1. What's the difference between Polanyi's paradox and Moravec's paradox, and how does each relate to computerization and automation? 2. What does…
 
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    Environmental Economics

  • CO2 emissions increased in 2013

    John Whitehead
    24 Oct 2014 | 6:45 am
    Some time series data: U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increased in 2013 by 129 million metric tons (2.5%), the largest increase since 2010 and the fourth-largest increase since 1990. Emissions trends reflect a combination of economic factors (population multiplied by per capita output [GDP/population]), energy intensity (energy use per dollar of GDP), and carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit of energy consumed). In the decade prior to 2013, energy intensity decreased on average by 2.0% per year; given that it increased by 0.5% in 2013, this meant there was a 2.5%…
  • Daily demand and supply

    John Whitehead
    24 Oct 2014 | 5:09 am
    From the WSJ Micro Review: Natural-Gas Prices Fall Even With Chill Nearingby: Timothy PukoOct 20, 2014 TOPICS: Supply and Demand SUMMARY: When cold weather looms across the U.S., natural-gas prices usually rise. This year they are falling, after a record production boom nearly replenished stockpiles left at their lowest since 2003 by last winter's freeze. CLASSROOM APPLICATION: Students can use supply and demand to examine the effects of shifts in both demand and supply on the equilibrium price of natural gas. Also, they can compare factors, such as weather, that have differing…
  • While written about popular book publishing, the same can be said for academic book publishing

    Tim Haab
    24 Oct 2014 | 4:15 am
    At the risk of biting a hand that fed me a tiny morsel, here's an interesting take on the Amazon/Hachette book fight.  To me, the interesting piece here is the question of value-added.  What value does the publisher add to the publishing process?   In the traditional book purchasing paradigm, when a reader bought a book at the store there were two separate layers of middlemen taking a cut of the cash before money reached the author: a retailer and a publisher. The publisher, in this paradigm, was doing very real work as part of the value-chain. A typed and printed book manuscript…
  • I really like when non-economists sound like economists--it means economic thinking is permeating everyday discussions

    Tim Haab
    23 Oct 2014 | 3:56 am
    I've been a fan of Mike Rowe since his early days on the Discovery Channel's 'Dirty Jobs.'  I don't always agree with his political views, but he's entertaining.  He has a new show on CNN called 'Somebody's Gotta Do it,' where he highlights what seem to many like odd jobs.  Apparently in a recent show, he spotlighted efforts to save the Whooping Crane.  A viewer took exception.  In his response, Mr. Rowe sounds a bit like an environmental economist...at least he's asking economic-like questions: "You did a disservice to Operation…
  • As my brain continues to atrophy I seek new publication outlets

    John Whitehead
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:03 am
    Retraction Watch: There’s a new journal in town. Inference’s first issue includes a lengthy review of a laboratory by a tennis instructor, a set of caricatures, and an exchange of emails from 1996 that is “perhaps, less remarkable for what it says than for the fact that it took place at all.” In short, its editors — who “would prefer to remain anonymous” — seem to share a sense of humor with the editors of the Journal of Universal Rejection or the Proceedings of the Natural Institute of Science: Although the editors appeal to experts for advice, Inference is not peer-reviewed.
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    footnoted*

  • What’s $8m to Google?

    Michelle Leder
    24 Oct 2014 | 6:10 am
    For most of us, $8 million is a lot of money. But for a company the size of Google, it’s probably safe to say that it’s the equivalent of sofa change. Still, even we were surprised by this exhibit attached to the 10-Q that Google filed yesterday. In the letter, which was dated July 18, 2014, Google agreed to forgive an $8m cash award that former Chief Business Officer Nikesh Arora was supposed to pay back within 30 days if he left the company prior to April 25, 2015. The condition was spelled out pretty clearly in this letter dated April 27, 2012. In that letter, the company said…
  • GT Technologies warned in August

    Michelle Leder
    10 Oct 2014 | 11:54 am
    There’s been a lot of hand-wringing over the past few days about GT Technologies, which as most people know, filed for bankruptcy earlier this week. In the press release, CEO Tom Guttierez said that “today’s filing does not mean we are going out of business; rather, it provides us with the opportunity to continue to execute our business plan on a stronger footing, maintain operations of our diversified business, and improve our balance sheet.” Investors didn’t quite see things that way. The stock declined over 90% on Monday and has spent the past few days…
  • Comment letter ahead of BofA’s $8M Fine

    Murti Bhattiprolu
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:00 am
    Yesterday, the SEC announced a $7.65m fine for Bank of America Corp. related to internal controls deficiencies and regulatory capital misstatements related to complex securities it bought as part of its acquisition of Merrill Lynch in 2009. What’s surprising is that a comment letter that was made public earlier this month previewed this. In that letter, the SEC said it was concerned with the company’s disclosure about revisions to regulatory capital amounts and ratios in its first-quarter report, which we flagged for footnotedPro subscribers on May 1. We thought it was…
  • An unusually special award at Sigma-Aldrich

    Michelle Leder
    26 Sep 2014 | 6:02 am
    Earlier this week, there was big news in big-pharma when the German pharmaceutical giant Merck KGaA announced plans to buy Sigma-Aldrich Corp. for $17 billion. The $140 a share price represented a 37% premium to Sigma-Aldrich’s closing price. Since that announcement on Monday, Sigma-Aldrich has filed 16 separate documents with the SEC, or somewhere north of 400 pages — from the transcript of the post-announcement call to the Powerpoint presentation to something called employee talking points, which was presumably designed by HR-types to reassure employees that they still have a…
  • Evertec execs line up to enjoy Puerto Rican tax holiday

    Michelle Leder
    18 Sep 2014 | 5:59 am
    You’ve probably heard (or at least read) about the new law in Puerto Rico. Just two weeks ago, the New York Times noted that former “hedge fund honcho” — their words, not ours — Alex Lemond had decamped there to take advantage of a change in the tax code that benefits wealthy newcomers to the island. A more recent development — known by its formal name of Act 77, which was signed into law at the beginning of July — provides additional benefits to income generated from options. (This memo from Deloitte provides a good overview of what’s otherwise…
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    HBR Blog Network - Harvard Business Review » Umair Haque

  • 3 Terrible Strategies for Companies Seeking Growth

    Umair Haque
    6 Oct 2014 | 6:00 am
    Some call it a depression. Some call it a never-ending recession. Some call it a disconnect or a decoupling. Some call it a not-quite recovery. Here’s the truth. Econ doesn’t have a word for whatever we’re in…because whatever we’re in flouts the so-called laws of economics. Quarterly results look great; job growth is “up;” and financial markets are ebullient. So why are so many still worse off than they were before? Why hasn’t all this “growth” actually translated into a real feeling of prosperity? And – as so many CEOs would like to know – is there any way to make…
  • Apple Is More Like a Band than a Company

    Umair Haque
    25 Sep 2014 | 5:00 am
    You’d think by now more companies would have learned. The tech industry still churns out beige boxes. The fashion industry, misshaped sack-shaped objects it calls “clothing” that make adult humans look suspiciously like overgrown toddlers. The food industry…who knows what’s really in the preservative-flavored genetically mutated stuff that’s labeled “food”? All the endless stuff the developed world is drowning in — that we’re melting down the planet to produce — is, for the most part, as unexciting as it is unoriginal as it is uninspired as it is…
  • Our Economic Malaise Is Fueling Political Extremism

    Umair Haque
    5 Jun 2014 | 12:00 pm
    The head of the fourth biggest and fastest rising political party in the world’s second most powerful economy is a racist. An aide to the Prime Minister of one of the world’s most promising societies is caught on camera kicking a protestor to the ground. The world’s largest democracy proudly elects a man who rode a wave of religious extremism. The head of yet another is a man whose calls for ethnic purity are becoming more strident. And that’s leaving out the rise of extremist parties in Greece, the U.S., France, and elsewhere. What’s going on here? Here’s my…
  • Can You Be Too Rich?

    Umair Haque
    12 May 2014 | 6:00 am
    Is there such a thing as too rich? Like most reasonable people, I agree whole-heartedly that people who accomplish greater, worthier, nobler things should be rewarded more than those who don’t. I’m not the World’s Last Communist, shaking his fist atop Karl Marx’s grave at the very idea of riches. So. Perhaps I’ve asked an absurd question. Perhaps there’s no such thing as too rich — anywhere, ever. But try this thought experiment: Imagine that there’s a single person in the economy who is so rich he’s worth what everyone else is, combined. If there were such a person, he’d…
  • 5 Dirty Secrets About the U.S. Economy

    Umair Haque
    2 May 2014 | 9:00 am
    If there’s one thing I hate these days, it’s discussing the U.S. economy. Will raising wages by seventeen cents destroy humanity? Will edible deodorant add 0.000007 percent to GDP? If we resurrected giant man-eating dinosaurs, could we use them to keep our warehouse pickers in line? Isn’t it awesome when the Dow hits a record high (but everything else flatlines or shrinks)? I feel like I’m listening to a debate on the noble merits of true love between the Real Housewives and a bunch of broseph PUAs. By my count, there are five dirty secrets about the economy we’re not supposed to…
 
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    Free exchange

  • The human-driven driverless car

    R.A. | LONDON
    23 Oct 2014 | 3:02 am
    TECHNOLOGY companies from Google to Audi have made remarkable strides in autonomous vehicle technology over the past few years. This progress is the more impressive given the fact that a decade ago technologists considered driving to be a near un-automatable task. Despite the extraordinary pace of improvement, however, driverless cars still attract plenty of sceptics.Some reckon that regulators and lawyers will keep the cars from reaching their full potential. They might do, though many local governments have been surprisingly open to crafting rules to accommodate the new driverless vehicles.
  • A market unto itself

    S.R., C.C.W. | SHANGHAI, HONG KONG
    21 Oct 2014 | 4:58 am
    AMID the sell-off in global equities over the past month, one market has made for an unlikely safe haven. While American, European and Japanese stock indices have fallen by roughly 5-9% since late September, Chinese stocks have been flat. For a market that often resembles a casino, looking to Chinese stocks for stability might seem a bizarre strategy. But there is one big factor to recommend China as a hedge against other markets: low correlations. That is, stockmarkets elsewhere in the world have little influence on China, and China’s stockmarket, in turn, has little influence on the rest…
  • Breaking the rules

    R.A. | LONDON
    21 Oct 2014 | 3:48 am
    AS UNPLEASANT as global economic conditions look just now we can at least be thankful that things aren't anywhere near as bad as they were in 2009, to say nothing of 1931. Neither are those sorts of nasty scenarios a risk. Right?There are lots of reasons to think the world will keep trucking along in coming years as it has over the last two. Yet the risk of a new and painful downturn, though still small, is growing. That growing risk is due to the surprising and disconcerting re-emergence of monetary phenomena that haven't really been seen since the gold standard of the 1930s.It is easy…
  • Big, bad Amazon

    R.A. | LONDON
    20 Oct 2014 | 1:19 pm
    LAST week, the Nobel prize in economics was awarded to Jean Tirole (see this week's Free exchange column) for his work examining the difficulties in regulating firms with substantial market power. Mr Tirole's research is as relevant as ever, thanks to growing concern over the weight tech titans are throwing around in their corners of the economy. Paul Krugman does not mince words in summing up a widespread view of one particular internet behemoth:Amazon.com, the giant online retailer, has too much power, and it uses that power in ways that hurt America.The context is an ongoing dispute…
  • The great unbundling

    Economist.com
    20 Oct 2014 | 11:02 am
    THIS week our correspondents discuss deflation, the TV business and the politics of wages
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    Hedge fund

  • Best hedge fund

    Veryan Allen
    12 Oct 2014 | 11:08 am
    I just visited the world's best hedge fund. Client performance needs mean I must do due diligence at all top SKILL BASED managers. I define "top" by risk adjusted returns not AUM and avoid asset class dependent funds. Too risky and unsuitable for institutions and individuals. Steep losses and high volatility are what market "averages" deliver every few years.YOUR money is too important to be risked on any asset class. I prefer talent that delivers INDEPENDENTLY of market direction. Though rare, skill can be detected with thorough analysis. For asset classes, history isn't forward looking.
  • Active or passive

    Veryan Allen
    9 Oct 2014 | 4:58 pm
    Active or passive? Index funds are just unskilled low frequency trading strategies with horrific drawdowns and abysmal risk adjusted returns. Active is the only option in the REAL world because "passive" funds track active decisions of index construction firms. Should you risk your life savings on lists of stocks or hard working talent that actually earns its fees? Name ANY business where passive worked in the long term.Choosing WHICH index is an active decision requiring skill. Prudent men invest in skill. If you think the best stock pickers work at Standard and Poor's, invest…
  • Low cost or low risk?

    Veryan Allen
    8 Oct 2014 | 6:47 am
    The market is efficient, apparently so security analysis is pointless? According to Jack Bogle, hedge fund managers like Warren Buffett and Jim Simons are just lucky monkeys. Bogle claims to be able to predict the long term future and urges you to gamble on his clairvoyance. Embrace the average as there is no skill! Expense ratios must be judged against net risk-adjusted returns and index funds have poor performance compared to skill strategies. Name any industry where the "average" succeeds.Jack Bogle steals investors' precious time waiting years for unanalyzed lists of stocks to rise.
  • Arbitrage hedge fund

    Veryan Allen
    7 Oct 2014 | 7:22 am
    Arbitrage? There's more DUMB MONEY invested in the markets than ever before. So there are MORE opportunities for alpha. Economics professors claim there is no such thing as arbitrage as it supposedly would be copied and eliminated! They are wrong. If you have the work ethic, intelligence and resources there are many arbitrages on Wall Street. A common metaphor is that if a $100 bill is dropped in the street it would immediately be picked up therefore no arbitrage can persist. But what if YOU are the person that finds it? Someone will. What if you specialize in walking the streets 24/7/365…
  • Hedge fund replication

    Veryan Allen
    1 Oct 2014 | 7:29 am
    Hedge fund replication is the dumbest idea since "portable alpha" or "130/30". You can buy a Rolex "clone" anywhere here in Beijing but there's a huge difference between them and the PERFORMANCE of a genuine Rolex. Same with clones attempting to mimic hedge funds. In any industry there are always cheap inferior knock-offs. There's no threat to good hedge funds who will massively outperform "copies". Shame on any investor that breaches fiduciary duty by allocating to garbage that's GUARANTEED to do poorly. Perhaps AVERAGE hedge funds can be cloned but who wants to invest in "average" managers?
 
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    Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up

  • Don't Blame IBM. Blame Wall Street

    Jeff Matthews
    20 Oct 2014 | 5:31 am
     Well the biggest stock-market levitation act since HP under Mark Hurd is going the way of all levitation acts: IBM is throwing in the towel on its $20 EPS "roadmap" (reportedly mocked as "roadkill" in some internal IBM quarters) and admitting what anybody with a calculator and the IBM 10Ks before them has understood for some time--it is exceedingly difficult to grow earnings regularly, not to mention with to-the-penny precision, when your sales are falling, hard, nearly everywhere, quarter after quarter...no matter how many people you lay off, how many "one-time" charges you take,…
  • Berkshire Hathaway: Wholesaler of Death?

    Jeff Matthews
    5 Sep 2014 | 1:41 pm
     Now that we have your attention with that admittedly provocative title, we are going to kill two birds with one stone here. Bird One is the fact that we haven’t posted anything in two months, mainly because whatever odd silliness visible in the darker corners of Wall Street seems irrelevant in a world where Vladimir Putin can invade his neighbors, take territory and shoot passenger planes from the sky while the civilized world sputters about such things not being fit for 21stCentury-type behavior before moving onto actual 21st Century-type behavior like Tweeting about…
  • Okay FINRA, Who Had The Call From The FHFA?

    Jeff Matthews
    11 Jul 2014 | 6:38 am
     Last night at 4:05 PM E.S.T. the news hit Bloomberg that the Federal Housing Financing Agency was proposing an astoundingly, stupidly strict set of standards for private mortgage insurers who do business with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the net effect of which would be to reduce the availability of credit for home buyers at the very time that credit is needed to keep our economic recovery going. We are not here to explain the issue, only to point out to FINRA, the self-policing body in charge of sniffing out strange behavior in the public markets, the enormous--nay,…
  • Life in Wartime, or, One More Reason Why Companies Leave America

    Jeff Matthews
    17 Jun 2014 | 11:47 am
     These are the headlines on my Bloomberg for Annie's, the organic mac and cheese maker whose shares have fallen from unsustainable heights as the difficulties of running a public company while trying to meet the impatient quarterly targets of impatient quarterly-minded investors finally overcame the euphoria of a company that seemed to be in the right place at the right time. And this is one more reason why companies are leaving America. For the record, I like the new CFO (who helped flag the filing deficiencies) and would not bet against the company mending its ways. Nor…
  • Berkshire Hathaway: Beyond Buffett

    Jeff Matthews
    24 May 2014 | 11:00 am
    If this is failure, I want more of it.”—Charlie Munger “The only succession for Ajit Jain is reincarnation.”—Warren BuffettOmaha, Nebraska, May 3, 2014.It’s one year later, and I’m driving in pre-dawn darkness through downtown Omaha to the 2014 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, which, up until about a week ago, was looking like another cakewalk for Warren Buffett. After all, Berkshire’s net worth increased 18% in 2013, representing a staggering $34 billion jump in value.  And while, as some wet-blanket observers have pointed out, Berkshire’s 18% gain paled in…
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    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

  • Hyperventilation Charade: EU Demands Another €2.1 Billion from UK, "We Won't Pay," Says Furious Cameron

    24 Oct 2014 | 12:54 pm
    Things are about to get more interesting in the EU as a review of budget procedures shows the UK, Greece, and Italy owe more money, but Germany and France will get money back.Curiously, this came about following a review of non-profit organizations from churches and universities to trade unions, charities and sports clubs. The time period is 2002-2009.Cameron's Obvious BluffUK prime minister David Cameron is already battling French President Francois Hollande abroad, and UKIP at home.Thus, Cameron's limited choice is to bluff as usual: "We Won't Pay," Says Furious Cameron. In a vivid display…
  • Japanese Style Deflation Coming? Where? Fed Falling Behind the Curve? Which Way?

    24 Oct 2014 | 10:05 am
    There's some interesting discussion points in the UK-based Absolute Return Partners October 2014 Letter, by Niels C. Jensen, most of which I agree with, others not. Japan-Style Deflation in Our Backyard?It is no secret that we have been long-standing believers in deflation being a more probable outcome of the 2008-09 crisis than high inflation. What has changed over the past six months is that the world has begun to move in different directions. Whereas rising unit labour costs in the U.S. make outright deflation in that country quite unlikely, the same cannot be said of the…
  • European Service Prices Plunge at Steepest Rate Since January 2010; Reflections on Keynesian Stupidity

    23 Oct 2014 | 5:52 pm
    The Markit Flash Eurozone PMI shows the steepest fall in output prices since the global crisis began. The PMI also shows renewed job losses in spite of an otherwise stable PMI. The Eurozone saw a marginal upturn in growth of business activity in October, according to the flash PMI results. The headline Markit PMI ™ rose from September’s ten-month low of 52.0 to 52.2, signalling the first upturn in the pace of expansion for three months. However, the index remained below the average seen in the third quarter, and was the second-weakest reading seen so far this year. Backlogs of work fell…
  • French Private Sector Output Falls at Sharpest Rate in Eight Months; Tale of Two Europes

    23 Oct 2014 | 12:17 pm
    France Looking for growth in Europe? You won't find it in France, but you can still find it in Germany (for now).The Markit Flash France PMI shows French private sector output falls at sharpest rate in eight months. Key PointsFlash France Composite Output Index falls to 48.0 (48.4 in September), 8-month low Flash France Services Activity Index falls to 48.1 (48.4 in September ), 8-month low Flash France Manufacturing Output Index falls to 47.6 (48.4 in September ), 2-month low Flash France Manufacturing PMI falls to 47.3 (48.8 in September), 2-month lowSummaryThe latest flash PMI data…
  • Late Payments by Ibex Companies Hits €47 Billion, 169 Days (3 Times Legal Time Limit); Ibex vs. DOW

    23 Oct 2014 | 9:45 am
    Lack of significant improvement in payments by IBEX companies to suppliers is yet another sign there isn't much of a recovery in Spain.La Vanguardia reports Late Payments by Ibex Companies Hits €47 Billion, 169 days (nearly 3 times the legal time limit). Ibex is the name of the Spanish stock market exchange.Via translation from La Vanguardia. Delinquency of the Ibex 35 exceeds 47 billion euros and the average payment is 169 days late, almost three times the limits set by law, according to the latest report of the Platform Multisectoral against delinquency (PMcM), made from the data…
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    Overcoming Bias

  • Thrown’s Kit’s Self-Deception

    Robin Hanson
    20 Oct 2014 | 5:15 pm
    Back in July 2010 Kerry Howley published a nice New York Times Magazine article on the tensions between my wife and I resulting from my choice to do cryonics. The very next month, August 2010, is the date when, in Howley’s new and already-celebrated book Thrown, her alter-ego Kit first falls in love with MMA fighting: Not until my ride home, as I began to settle back into my bones and feel the limiting contours of perception close back in like the nursery curtains that stifled the views of my youth, did it occur to me that I had, for the first time in my life, found a way out of this, my…
  • Em Software Results

    Robin Hanson
    17 Oct 2014 | 10:25 am
    After requesting your help, I should tell you what it added up to. The following is an excerpt from my book draft, illustrated by this diagram: In our world, the cost of computing hardware has been falling rapidly for decades. This fall has forced most computer projects to be short term, so that products can be used before they are made obsolete. The increasing quantity of software purchased has also led to larger software projects, which involve more engineers. This has shifted the emphasis toward more communication and negotiation, and also more modularity and standardization in software…
  • History Vs. Future

    Robin Hanson
    14 Oct 2014 | 12:25 pm
    I’ve long puzzled over differing interest in history and the future, in both fiction and non-fiction. And I’ve finally collected some numbers. Amazon.com says it has 37 million books on offer. Here are the fraction of those books it says are in these named categories: Note that Amazon has no “future studies” category, so I listed the two future-themed categories I found. Here are the fraction of books associated with related keyword phrases: Why the far larger interest in real history, relative to all the other combinations of future/history and real/fictional?
  • Why Not Egg Futures?

    Robin Hanson
    11 Oct 2014 | 11:00 am
    Older women often find themselves too old to have kids, and regretting it. Such women would have gained by freezing some eggs when they were younger. But when younger, they didn’t think they’d ever want kids, or thought the issue could wait. Such women might be helped by an egg futures business, paid to take on this risk for them. Such a business could buy eggs from women when young, freeze them, and sell them back to these same women when old. Of course, to compensate for the wait and risk that the women wouldn’t want eggs later, this business would have to sell…
  • Em Software Engineering Bleg

    Robin Hanson
    8 Oct 2014 | 1:20 pm
    Many software engineers read this blog, and I’d love to include a section on software engineering in my book on ems. But as my software engineering expertise is limited, I ask you, dear software engineer readers, for help. “Ems” are future brain emulations. I’m writing a book on em social implications. Ems would substitute for human workers, and once ems were common ems would do almost all work, including software engineering. What I seek are reasonable guesses on the tools and patterns of work of em software engineers – how their tools and work patterns would differ from those…
 
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Solution to the helicopter design problem

    Andrew
    24 Oct 2014 | 6:14 am
    See yesterday’s post for background. Here’s the question: In the helicopter activity, pairs of students design paper ”helicopters” and compete to create the copter that takes longest to reach the ground when dropped from a fixed height. The two parameters of the helicopter, a and b, correspond to the length of certain cuts in the paper, parameterized so that each of a and b must be more than 0 and less than 1. In the activity, students are allowed to make 20 test helicopters at design points (a,b) of their choosing. The students measure how long each copter takes to reach the…
  • No, Michael Jordan didn’t say that!

    Bob Carpenter
    23 Oct 2014 | 2:08 pm
    The names are changed, but the song remains the same. First verse. There’s an article by a journalist, The odds, continually updated, by F.D. Flam in the NY Times to which Andrew responded in blog form, No, I didn’t say that, by Andrew Gelman, on this blog. Second verse. There’s an article by a journalist, Machine-Learning Maestro Michael Jordan on the Delusions of Big Data and Other Huge Engineering Efforts, by Lee Gomes, published in IEEE Spectrum (the “light” magazine you get when you join IEEE). to which Michael Jordan responded in blog form, Big Data, Hype,…
  • Some questions from our Ph.D. statistics qualifying exam

    Andrew
    23 Oct 2014 | 6:07 am
    In the in-class applied statistics qualifying exam, students had 4 hours to do 6 problems. Here were the 3 problems I submitted: In the helicopter activity, pairs of students design paper ”helicopters” and compete to create the copter that takes longest to reach the ground when dropped from a fixed height. The two parameters of the helicopter, a and b, correspond to the length of certain cuts in the paper, parameterized so that each of a and b must be more than 0 and less than 1. In the activity, students are allowed to make 20 test helicopters at design points (a,b) of their choosing.
  • Stan 2.5, now with MATLAB, Julia, and ODEs

    Bob Carpenter
    22 Oct 2014 | 12:59 pm
    As usual, you can find everything on the Stan Home Page. Drop us a line on the stan-users group if you have problems with installs or questions about Stan or coding particular models. New Interfaces We’d like to welcome two new interfaces: MatlabStan by Brian Lau, and  Stan.jl (for Julia) by Rob Goedman. The new interface home pages are linked from the Stan home page. New Features The biggest new feature is a differential equation solver (Runge-Kutta from Boost’s odeint with coupled sensitivities). We also added new cbind and rbind functions, is_nan and is_inf functions, a…
  • Sailing between the Scylla of hyping of sexy research and the Charybdis of reflexive skepticism

    Andrew
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:56 am
    Recently I had a disagreement with Larry Bartels which I think is worth sharing with you. Larry and I took opposite positions on the hot topic of science criticism. To put things in a positive way, Larry was writing about some interesting recent research which I then constructively criticized. To be more negative, Larry was hyping some sexy research and I was engaging in mindless criticism. The balance between promotion and criticism is always worth discussing, but particularly so in this case because of two factors: 1. The research in question is on the borderline. The conclusions in…
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    Streetsblog New York City

  • NYC: Quorum or No, Astoria’s CB 1 Votes Against Three Livable Streets Projects

    Stephen Miller
    24 Oct 2014 | 2:01 pm
    Astoria’s Community Board 1 rejected three livable streets projects Tuesday night, despite questions about whether the board even had enough members in attendance to take votes on the proposals. Queens CB 1 would rather have one parking space for cars than eight spots for bikes. Image: DOT [PDF]The three projects — a short bus lane on Astoria Boulevard, concrete barriers to protect cyclists on Vernon Boulevard, and a bike corral in front of a restaurant — fell victim to what appears to be leadership biased against projects that improve conditions for bus riders and cyclists.
  • NYC: The Weekly Carnage

    Summer Greenstein
    24 Oct 2014 | 11:55 am
    The Weekly Carnage is a Friday round-up of motor vehicle violence across the five boroughs. For more on the origins and purpose of this column, please read About the Weekly Carnage. A dump truck driver fatally struck Winnifred Matthias, 77, at the intersection of Flatbush and Atlantic Avenues. NYPD said Matthias was walking “outside the crosswalk.” No charges were filed. Photo: Ian Dutton Fatal Crashes (4 Killed This Week; 164 This Year*) Glendale: Martin Srodin, 46, Killed by Semi Truck Driver in Crosswalk; No Charges (Streetsblog) Prospect Heights: Winnifred Matthias, 77,…
  • NYC: Citizens Budget Commission: MTA Capital Program Must Change Course

    Stephen Miller
    24 Oct 2014 | 10:34 am
    The fight over how to fund the MTA’s next capital plan is just starting to heat up, with worries over disappearing federal dollars, ever-expanding debt, and proposals for new revenue sources. Before the funding discussion gets going in earnest, a new report from the Citizens Budget Commission [PDF] begs the region’s transportation policymakers to take a step back and consider a more fundamental question: Does this plan prioritize the right things? A new report raises concerns about the MTA’s commitment to state of good repair projects. Photo: Gerhard Bos/Flickr CBC offers…
  • NYC: Today’s Headlines

    Brad Aaron
    24 Oct 2014 | 5:56 am
    Citizens Budget Commission: MTA Should Prioritize Upkeep Over Expansion (NYTSAS City Council Committee Passes Ambitious Plan to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions (CapNY) Amtrak Chair Says Sunnyside Yards Development May Be on the Table Next Year (CapNY) Council Members Give Thumbs Down to Auto-Dependent Astoria Cove Plan (Times Ledger) It’s a Start, But It Will Take More Than Stickers to Make Private Trash Haulers Safe (Crain’s) Community Board 2 and Public School Parents Urge DOT to Fix Seventh Avenue (Villager Chuck Schumer and James Oddo Lobby Port Authority to Sponsor West…
  • NYC: New Data Reveal Which City Agency Is Running Over the Most Pedestrians

    Stephen Miller
    23 Oct 2014 | 2:08 pm
    Over the past eight years, there have been more than 1,200 personal injury claims against the city involving pedestrians injured or killed by drivers of city vehicles, including 22 pedestrian deaths, according to a new report and interactive map from Comptroller Scott M. Stringer [PDF]. Over the same period, the city paid $88 million for pedestrian injury settlements and judgments. Claims have held steady in recent years, with NYPD consistently holding the top spot among city agencies. The document is an update to Stringer’s “ClaimStat” report from July, which offered…
 
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    The Big Picture

  • Kiron Sarkar’s Weekly Report

    Kiron Sarkar
    25 Oct 2014 | 3:30 am
    Reuters reports that the ECB is considering buying corporate bonds as early as Q1 (January) next year, with the decision to be taken in December. Mr Draghi has admitted that the only real option left for the ECB is to increase the size of its balance sheet and such a move makes sense. No doubt, the Bundesbank and German politicians will oppose such a policy, though without this and/or similar actions, the economic climate in the Eurozone (EZ) is set to worsen materially. Mr Weidmann of the Bundesbank states that the risk of deflation in the EZ remains low, which I have to say is optimistic.
  • Succinct Summations of Weeks Events 10.24.14

    Barry Ritholtz
    24 Oct 2014 | 12:30 pm
    Succinct Summations week ending October 24th Positives: 1. S&P 500 rose ~ 4% for the week — amazingly is now down less than 1% for the month. 2. Initial jobless claims came in slightly higher than expected but the 4-week moving average fell to the lowest levels since 2000. 3. Mortgage refinance applications rose 23.3% w/o/w as 30-year mortgage rates fell to their lowest levels since May 2013. 4. Consumer prices, bot headline and core rose 0.1% vs flat estimates. 5. Existing home sales came in at 5.17mm, the highest since September 2013. 6. New home sales rose to 467k, the most since…
  • How Many Ebola Patients Have Been Treated Outside Africa?

    Barry Ritholtz
    24 Oct 2014 | 10:30 am
    Source: NY Times Source: NY Times
  • Bankers Learned All the Wrong Lessons From the Financial Crisis

    Barry Ritholtz
    24 Oct 2014 | 6:45 am
    Under normal circumstances, approving my mortgage application should be a no-brainer: High income, no debt, high credit score. The missus also makes a good income, has an almost-perfect credit score and has been working for the same business for 28 years. But these are not normal circumstances. Let me jump to the end: Yes, we got our mortgage. We put 20 percent down, bought a house that appraised for more than the purchase price and got a 3.25 percent rate on a mortgage that resets after seven years. We moved in last month. But the process was surreal. Indeed, it was such a bizarre experience…
  • 10 Friday AM Reads

    Barry Ritholtz
    24 Oct 2014 | 5:00 am
    Is this insane week nearly over already? Get set for your weekend, with our expertly curated morning train reads: • Revenge of the mom and pop investors (Fortune) see also You’re Not Listening To Robert Shiller If His CAPE Ratio Has You Scared Of Stocks (Business Insider) • Helicopter money (Mainly Macro) • Nobody Knows Nothing (Irrelevant Investor) see also Lies Investors Tell Themselves (A Wealth of Common Sense) • Investors Growing Skeptical of Hedge Fund Benefits (CIO) What are you reading? Continues here  
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    The Epicurean Dealmaker

  • Sunday Reading from the Archives

    19 Oct 2014 | 10:20 am
    Edward Hopper, Early Sunday Morning, 1930“Then I need say no more,” said Celeborn. “But do not despise the lore that has come down from distant years; for oft it may chance that old wives keep in memory word of things that once were needful for the wise to know.”— J.R.R. Tolkein, The Fellowship of the RingPeriodically, O Dearly Beloved, I take a leisurely stroll through the carefully stacked and organized pixels of my back catalogue, clicking from link to link in a solipsistic journey of rediscovery. Occasionally such wanderings illuminate a consistent intellectual preoccupation of…
  • The Privy Counselor

    11 Oct 2014 | 1:19 pm
    Diego Velasquez, Portrait of Pedro de Barberana, 1631No! I am not Prince Hamlet, nor was meant to be; Am an attendant lord, one that will do To swell a progress, start a scene or two, Advise the prince; no doubt, an easy tool, Deferential, glad to be of use,Politic, cautious, and meticulous; Full of high sentence, but a bit obtuse; At times, indeed, almost ridiculous— Almost, at times, the Fool.— T.S. Eliot, “The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock”So The Blackstone Group decided yesterday to spin off its advisory business and merge it with Paul Taubman’s advisory “kiosk.” This is…
  • Farewell, Ghafla Distraction

    3 Oct 2014 | 4:54 pm
    “Aha! Now we see the violence inherent in the system!”— Monty Python and the Holy GrailYes, it’s true: I’ve left Twitter.No special reason. All of a part with my reasons for terminating this blog,1 which boil down to being tired of it. I no longer get enough out of the service to merit the near constant immersion and distraction which it seems to elicit from me. I have better uses for my time. And the more substantive readings and links of interest which used to attract me I have sourced otherwise through RSS feeds, so I no longer need to wade through reams of banal tweets on…
  • TED’s All Time Greatest Hits

    29 Sep 2014 | 7:44 pm
    The person who experiences greatness must have a feeling for the myth he is in. He must reflect what is projected upon him. And he must have a strong sense of the sardonic. This is what uncouples him from belief in his own pretensions. The sardonic is all that permits him to move within himself. Without this quality, even occasional greatness will destroy a man.— Frank Herbert, DuneI have used the preceding epigraph before, as some of you Delightful Readers may recall. It is a versatile and thought-provoking sentiment. Like many quotes and excerpts from Dune, which I contend is one of the…
  • Oop. Time, She’s Up

    20 Sep 2014 | 3:52 pm
    “I am old, Gandalf. I don’t look it, but I am beginning to feel it in my heart of hearts. Well-preserved indeed! Why, I feel all thin, sort of stretched, if you know what I mean: like butter that has been scraped over too much bread. That can’t be right. I need a change, or something.”― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Lord of the RingsWhen I launched this blog seven and three-quarters years ago, O Dearly Beloved, my first post incorporated the following mission statement:I have started this blog to comment on what I consider to be a fascinating part of the global economy: the global market for…
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    OUPblog

  • Short stories from the Danish capital

    Hannah Paget
    25 Oct 2014 | 1:30 am
    From the narrow twisting streets of the old town centre to the shady docklands, Copenhagen Tales captures the essence of Copenhagen and its many faces. Through seventeen tales by some of the very best of Denmark’s writers past and present, we travel the length and breadth of the Danish capital examining famous sights from unique perspectives. A guide book usefully informs a new visitor to Copenhagen but these stories allow the reader to experience the city and its history from the inside. Translator Lotte Shankland is a Copenhagener by birth who has lived many years in England. In the…
  • Once upon a time, part 2

    ChloeF
    25 Oct 2014 | 12:30 am
    There is a quarrel inside me about fairies, and the form of literature their presence helps to define. I have never tried to see a fairy, or at least not since I was five years old. The interest of Casimiro Piccolo reveals how attitudes to folklore belong to their time: he was affected by the scientific inquiry into the paranormal which flourished – in highly intellectual circles – from the late nineteenth century and into the twentieth. But he also presents a test case, I feel, for the questions that hang around fairies and fairy tales in the twenty-first century. What is the point…
  • Preparing for the 2014 FDI International Arbitration Moot

    Julia Callaway
    24 Oct 2014 | 7:30 am
    The annual Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) International Arbitration Moot gathers academics and practitioners from around the world to discuss developments and gain a greater understanding of growing international investment, the creation of international investment treaties, domestic legislation, and international investment contracts. The FDI Moot occurs over the course of six months, and includes regional rounds, which took place in August in New Delhi, Seoul, and Buenos Aires, and concludes with the global finals. Global finals venues rotate each year between Frankfurt, Malibu, Boston,…
  • A Halloween horror story : What was it? Part 4

    PennyF
    24 Oct 2014 | 4:30 am
    We’re getting ready for Halloween this month by reading the classic horror stories that set the stage for the creepy movies and books we love today. Every Friday this October we’ve unveiled a part of Fitz-James O’Brien’s tale of an unusual entity in What Was It?, a story from the spine-tingling collection of works in Horror Stories: Classic Tales from Hoffmann to Hodgson, edited by Darryl Jones. Last we left off the narrator, Harry, tried to fight off a mysterious creature fighting him in his bed. His friend Hammond had just come to his rescue. Hammond stood holding the ends of…
  • Coded letters reveal an illicit affair and a woman of substance

    Alice
    24 Oct 2014 | 3:30 am
    When an old friend told me he had saved the former Edward Everett Hale house in Matunuck, Rhode Island from demolition and gifted it to a local historical society with an endowment fund for its restoration, I remembered there was a significant collection of E. E. Hale letters at the Library of Congress that might throw light on the house. How could I have guessed this would lead me to uncovering the revered minister’s decades-long love affair with a forgotten, much younger and truly remarkable woman named Harriet E. Freeman? First I had to unlock the code the writers used in passages…
 
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    Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

  • Some Links

    Don Boudreaux
    25 Oct 2014 | 3:16 am
    (Don Boudreaux) The Free To Choose Network’s new program, Suffer No Fools – a wonderful documentary of life (so far!) of my great colleague Walter Williams – airs on Tuesday, October 28th, at 6:00pm (and again at 12:00am on Oct. 29th) on two Tucson public-television stations: KUAT, channel 6, and KUAS, channel 27. David Friedman argues that, despite some claims to the contrary, his father, Milton Friedman, likely would not today support a carbon tax. Here’s a great interview at Spiked with Reason’s Nick Gillespie.  (HT Walter Grinder) Over at EconLog, Art…
  • More Than One Perspective

    Don Boudreaux
    24 Oct 2014 | 12:22 pm
    (Don Boudreaux) Here’s another letter to my new correspondent from New Jersey: Dear Mr. Sloan: I appreciate your correspondence.  Thank you for it. You ask if I agree that, because successful entrepreneurs “such as [Jeff] Bezos … benefit disproportionately” from government-supplied infrastructure, these entrepreneurs should be taxed at rates higher than those levied on “regular people.” I don’t agree.  My reasons are many, not the least of which is that I doubt that successful entrepreneurs benefit disproportionately from government-supplied infrastructure.  Looking…
  • Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    24 Oct 2014 | 4:23 am
    (Don Boudreaux) … is from the final paragraph of F.A. Hayek’s brilliant and profoundly important December 11, 1974 Nobel Prize lecture, “The Pretense of Knowledge“: There is danger in the exuberant feeling of ever growing power which the advance of the physical sciences has engendered and which tempts man to try, ‘dizzy with success’, to use a characteristic phrase of early communism, to subject not only our natural but also our human environment to the control of a human will.  The recognition of the insuperable limits to his knowledge ought indeed to…
  • A Lesson from 1871 and 1874

    Don Boudreaux
    23 Oct 2014 | 10:58 am
    (Don Boudreaux) Here’s a letter to a student in New Jersey: Dear Mr. Sloan: Thanks for your latest note.  You remember correctly that I agree that Pres. Obama’s “You didn’t build that!” quip referred to infrastructure and other inputs – admittedly produced by others – that each entrepreneur relies on.  You’re mistaken, however, to insist that “because government makes businesses’ profits possible, even the most innovative” entrepreneurs and investors “earn only a portion of their profits.” You confuse possibilities with actualities.  Infrastructure and other…
  • Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    23 Oct 2014 | 4:24 am
    (Don Boudreaux) … is from page 284 of the eminent Harvard historian Richard Pipes’s wonderful 1999 volume, Property and Freedom (footnote excluded): The trend of modern times appears to indicate that citizens of democracies are willing heedlessly to surrender their freedoms to purchase social equality (along with economic security), apparently oblivious of the consequences.  And the consequences are that their ability to hold on to and use what they earn and own, to hire and fire at will, to enter freely into contracts, and even to speak their mind is steadily being eroded by…
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    Dollars & Sense Blog

  • Tuesday Links: London Whale, S.A.C. Capital, Jeff Madrick

    Chris Sturr
    21 Oct 2014 | 1:23 pm
    Apologies about the break from posts for the past week plus.  I just moved apartments, and that kept me from blogging. (Though around the same time I was moving we had some troubles with our sister blog, Triple Crisis, which also took up a lot of time. I have found some temporary fixes for our troubles, but if there are any WordPress developers out there who could give us some pro bono help with our two blogs (which both run on WordPress) and our website (which we intend to shift over to WordPress), please drop us a line.) Here are my latest links: (1) Jeff Madrick’s Seven Bad Ideas:…
  • Friday Links: Market Basket, War and Climate Change, etc.

    Chris Sturr
    3 Oct 2014 | 8:43 am
    (1) Alejandro Reuss on Market Basket:  I noticed that a Twitter account related to the low-wage worker organizing that is going on now, @LowPayIsNotOk, tweeted about a ridiculous article from Forbes arguing that the take-away from the return of Arthur T. Demoulas as CEO to the Market Basket supermarket chain is that good leaders know how to engage their employees’ volunteerism (Market Basket: The Power of Volunteerism And Employee Engagement).  That inspired me to post the piece on Market Basket by my co-editor, Alejandro Reuss, in our current issue (our Annual Labor Issue): The…
  • Annual Labor Issue

    Chris Sturr
    25 Sep 2014 | 3:23 pm
      We have finally sent our September/October 2014 Annual Labor Issue out to e-subscribers (print subscribers should get it within a week to ten days).  And I just posted our cover story to the website, The Future of Work, Leisure, and Consumption in an Age of Economic and Ecological Crisis, which is an interview with economist and Boston College sociology professor Juliet Schor. Here is the editors’ note from p. 2 of the issue: Unconventional Wisdom Here are some bits of “conventional wisdom” about labor relations and work in the United States today: It’s part of the…
  • Climate March Links: Industrial Policy!

    Chris Sturr
    19 Sep 2014 | 3:49 pm
    A few items in advance of this weekend’s Climate March in NYC: (1) Ron Baiman of the Chicago Political Economy Group sent us this: I’m sometimes asked: What is industrial policy? This article (“Sun and Wind Alter Global Landscape, Leaving Utilities Behind”) by Justin Gillis of the New York Times shows what industrial policy is. If Germany, a country with little sun, and little wind-swept land mass can do it, we all can! In fact as the article notes, German (and Chinese) industrial policies are bringing prices down and making these planetary saving technologies…
  • Tuesday Links: CEO Pay, Crisis Costs, Climate March, etc.

    Chris Sturr
    16 Sep 2014 | 10:47 am
    (1) Dr. Dollar on the Ex-Im Bank.  Our latest piece from the (still in production) Sept/Oct issue: Arthur “Dr. Dollar” MacEwan answers this question from D&S reader Arne Alpert: “Congressional Republicans and the Heritage Foundation are making a big deal about the Export-Import Bank, calling it “crony capitalism.” Are they right? Does the Ex-Im Bank serve a useful purpose, or is it just propping up the profits of trans-national corporations?” (2) Susan Holmberg and Mark Schmitt, The Overpaid CEO. Interesting piece that focuses on the costs of high CEO pay.
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    Japan Economy Watch

  • Is Japan Back In Recession?

    Edward Hugh
    8 Oct 2014 | 8:39 am
    “People should seriously consider that Japan’s economy may have fallen into recession despite the weaker yen and a stock rally from the BOJ’s easing and the flexible fiscal policy by Abe’s administration,” said Maiko Noguchi, senior economist at Daiwa Securities. “Initial expectations that the economy could withstand the negative effects of a sales tax hike through a virtuous circle seem to be
  • Does Abenomics Work? - The Doubts Grow

    Edward Hugh
    18 Sep 2014 | 12:35 pm
    Is something in the air? Do I detect a change in consensus on the way things are going in Japan? Certainly a slew of articles have been published in the financial press over the last month questioning where the Abenomics experiment is headed for. The general conclusion seems to be that wherever it is it is certainly not the originally designated endpoint. Thus the Economist. "It is crisis mode
  • Abenomics - What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

    Edward Hugh
    14 Aug 2014 | 8:05 am
    If this week's economics news is positive then that is good.  But if it's bad then that's even better, since there is more potential for it to improve next week, and if it doesn't, well that's doubly better since there will be  even more reason for central banks to step in and push up asset prices. Maybe all this sounds peculiar, even perverse, but it would seem to be how many people working in
  • Japan Inflation At A 32 Year High?

    Edward Hugh
    29 Jun 2014 | 12:23 pm
    Just in case anyone was in any doubt last weeks newspaper  headlines blared it out for us loud and clear - Japanese inflation is back, and has even hit levels last seen in 1982. (Click on image below for better viewing). In fact consumer prices in Japan rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in May according to the Bank of Japan's preferred measure, driven higher from one month to another by the
  • Will Japan Re-enter Deflation in April 2015?

    Edward Hugh
    20 Jun 2014 | 3:20 am
    Reading the most recent statements from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda or Finance Minister Taro Aso you would get the impression that the days of deflation are now well and truly numbered in Japan. Martin Schulz, economist at Fujitsu Research Institute in Tokyo, goes even further. “Deflation is over in Japan,” he told Bloomberg Television First Up’s Angie Lau . Even Japan’s industrial
 
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    Credit Slips

  • QRM's Missed Opportunities for Financial Stability and Servicing Reform

    Adam Levitin
    24 Oct 2014 | 8:24 am
    There are three major new regulations shaping the housing finance market:  QM (qualified mortgage), QRM (qualified residential mortgage) and Reg X.  QM is a safe harbor from the statutory ability-to-repay requirement that applies to all mortgages.  QRM is a safe harbor from the statutory risk retention requirement that applies to mortgage securitization.  And Reg X are the new mortgage servicing regulations.  It's important to understand how these three regulations interact and how they're going to affect the housing finance market.  (There's also new TILA/RESPA…
  • Credit Risk Retention Rules and QRM

    Adam Levitin
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:43 pm
    The long awaited credit risk retention rules for securitization are out. The big question--whether the qualified residential mortgage or QRM exemption would be narrower than the CFPB's qualified mortgage or QM safe harbor to the Ability to Repay requirement for mortgages is no. QRM=QM. The short version is that the rule doesn't require meaningful credit risk retention where it counts, and imposes significant market-shaping safe-harbor requirements where skin in the game isn't so important. The basic rule is that 5% credit risk must be retained, unhedged, by the securitization…
  • Are You Sure That's Your Testimony?

    Adam Levitin
    22 Oct 2014 | 1:25 pm
    Yves Smith has had some great coverage of the AIG bailout trail over on Naked Capitalism.  While the litigation, as Yves has characterized it, is a bit like a brawl between the ugly stepsisters, it's telling us all kinds of stuff we didn't know (or at least couldn't document) about the 2008-09 bailouts.    Today's coverage is a must-read piece by Matt Stoller about the civil service regulatory capture at the Fed, as personified by its general counsel.  The AIG trial has highlighted some of the worldview problems at the Fed. It has also included some jaw-dropping…
  • Is a 36% Cap Radical?

    Nathalie Martin
    19 Oct 2014 | 2:03 pm
    I was pleased to see today’s New York Times editorial entitled “A Rate Cap for All Consumer Loans.”  It created a very public description of an industry indiscretion involving loaning money to the military at over 36%. Those loans are illegal because a federal law makes it so, a law that passed with broad and deep bipartisan support because trapping military personnel in high-cost loans interferes with military readiness and thus threatens national security. This editorial, not in some fringe publication, but rather the New York Times, argues that we all deserve the same protections…
  • Unseal the Doomsday Book!

    Adam Levitin
    14 Oct 2014 | 6:40 pm
    When I first heard about the NY Fed's Doomsday book, my initial thought was, "Wow, they've got a comprehensive survey of land titles, so MERS really isn't an issue!" Then I realized it was a Doomsday book, not a Domesday book. Apparently the Doomsday book is some sort of "in case of emergency" do-it-yourself bailouts manual that outlines the steps the NY Fed believes it can legally take to stave off economic Armageddon.  I'm rather puzzled by the NY Fed's claim that it should be kept under seal.  I guess we'll find out more of the Fed's…
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    The Aleph Blog » The Aleph Blog

  • The Butterfly Machine

    David Merkel
    23 Oct 2014 | 5:38 am
    Photo Credit: whologwhy || Danger: Butterfly at work!There’s a phenomenon called the Butterfly Effect.  One common quotation is “It has been said that something as small as the flutter of a butterfly’s wing can ultimately cause a typhoon halfway around the world.”Today I am here to tell you that for that to be true, the entire world would have to be engineered to allow the butterfly to do that.  The original insight regarding how small changes to complex systems occurred as a result of changing a parameter by a little less than one ten-thousandth.  Well, the force…
  • Meeting the “Bond King”

    David Merkel
    17 Oct 2014 | 4:03 am
    Photo Credit: ~Sage~ || King of the Beasts, eh?It was winter in early 1995, and I was wondering if I still had a business selling Guaranteed Investment Contracts [GICs].  Confederation Life had gone insolvent the August prior, and I noticed that fewer and fewer stable value funds wanted to purchase my GICs, because our firm was small, and as such, did not get a good credit rating, despite excellent credit metrics.  The lack of a good rating kept buyers away.Still, I felt I needed to try my best for one more year or so, despite my feelings that the business was dying soon.  With that…
  • Mantra: Interest Rates Have to Rise, Interest Rates Have to…

    David Merkel
    16 Oct 2014 | 2:30 am
    Photo Credit: Beto Vilaboim || No, you are not crazy — it *is* hopelessI thought of structuring this post like a fictional story, but I couldn’t figure out how to make it good enough for publication.  Well, truth is often stranger than fiction, so have a look at this Bloomberg article pointing at a 37% loss in the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT).A few points to start with: shorting is hard.  Leveraged shorting is harder.  I think I have reasonable expertise in much though not all of investing, and I put most shorts in the “too hard pile.”That said, I…
  • Even with Good Managers, Volatility Matters

    David Merkel
    16 Oct 2014 | 12:42 am
    Photo Credit: sea turtleThis is another episode in my continuing saga on dollar-weighted returns. We eat dollar-weighted returns.  Dollar-weighted returns are the returns investors actually receive in a open-end mutual fund or an ETF, which includes their timing decisions, as opposed to the way that performance statistics are ordinarily stated, which assumes that investors buy-and-hold.In order for active managers to have a reasonable chance of beating the market, they have to have portfolios that are significantly different than the market.  As a result, their portfolios will not behave…
  • Factor Glut

    David Merkel
    14 Oct 2014 | 1:22 am
    Photo Credit: Dan CenturyI use factors in my investing. What *are* factors, you ask?  Factors are quantitative variables that have been associated with potential outperformance.  What are some of these factors?Valuation (including yield)Price Momentum (and its opposite in some cases)Insider TradingIndustry factorsNeglectLow VolatilityQuality (gross margins as a fraction of assets)Asset shrinkageShare count shrinkageMeasures of accounting qualityand more…This is a large portion of what I use for screening in my eighth portfolio rule.  I’m not throwing this idea out of the…
 
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    Quoting the Crisis

  • Why Monopolistic Pension Funds Undermine Capitalism

    6 Oct 2014 | 12:53 pm
    Why Monopolistic Pension Funds Undermine Capitalism: Roger Martin, hbr.org Peter Drucker was right, as he repeatedly was, when he foresaw in 1976 the emergence of pension funds as the most powerful wielder of capital in the modern economy. In his unique way he gave the story a neat twist by arguing that pension funds wou…
  • CEOs Get Paid Too Much, According to Pretty Much Everyone in the...

    23 Sep 2014 | 9:17 pm
    CEOs Get Paid Too Much, According to Pretty Much Everyone in the World Gretchen Gavett, hbr.org Rumblings of discontent about executive wages, the 1%, and wealth gaps know no borders. And neither does fierce debate about income inequality in general. But until now, it’s been relatively unclear how much people think CEOs should really make…
  • Microsoft’s $29.6 billion scam: Tech giant leads the way in...

    29 Aug 2014 | 11:07 am
    Microsoft’s $29.6 billion scam: Tech giant leads the way in tax-avoiding innovation David Sirota, salon.com More and more companies who enjoy huge benefits operating in the U.S. are trying to weasel their way out of taxesReading companies’ annual reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission is a reliable cure for insomnia. Every so often, though…
  • Beware the enormous bubble in bonds Chris Martenson,...

    29 Aug 2014 | 11:05 am
    Beware the enormous bubble in bonds Chris Martenson, marketwatch.com There’s an enormous bubble building in global bond markets, warns Chris Martenson.The only question now is: Who will take the losses?There’s a saying on Wall Street: Stocks are for show, but bonds are for dough.The flash, sizzle and focus…
  • A European Lost Decade?

    22 Aug 2014 | 4:03 am
    A European Lost Decade?: Michael Heise, project-syndicate.org Europe’s current economic predicament sounds a lot like Japan’s in the 1990s, which culminated in a “lost decade” of stagnant growth and deflation from which the country is still working to recover. How can Europe avoid a similar fate?
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    IMF Survey Magazine

  • New Revenues Can Offset Africa’s Rising Income Inequality

    21 Oct 2014 | 9:14 am
    Combating rising income inequality in sub-Saharan Africa will require a pragmatic, multipronged approach to uncover new sources of revenue while also enabling critical investments in human capital, participants agree at a seminar in Washington, D.C.
  • Strong Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, but Pockets of Difficulty

    20 Oct 2014 | 6:22 am
    Strong growth in most of sub-Saharan Africa’s economies should support robust regional expansion in 2014 and 2015, the IMF’s regional outlook says. In most countries, growth benefits from a blend of infrastructure investment, expanding services, and agricultural output.
  • Panel Debates Moves to Spur Growth, Create Jobs

    15 Oct 2014 | 2:06 pm
    Public infrastructure investment can boost both short-term and long-term growth in countries across the development spectrum, provided that the investment raises the economy’s productive capacity, participants agreed at a conference.
  • Europe Needs to Act On All Fronts, Says Panel

    15 Oct 2014 | 10:36 am
    Amid testing economic times for Europe, well managed investment in infrastructure, along with other structural reforms, stood out as a way to help kick-start the economy, according to prominent speakers at an IMF seminar on the EU’s reform agenda.
  • Tharman: We Know What Needs to be Done and We Need to Do It

    12 Oct 2014 | 4:20 pm
    In an interview, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, chair of the IMF’s policy steering body, calls for countries to move quickly to adopt structural reforms to boost growth and avert a prolonged period of weak growth.
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    24/7 Wall St.

  • The 52-Week Low Club for Friday

    Paul Ausick
    24 Oct 2014 | 1:05 pm
    October 24, 2014: Here are four stocks among the 49 equities making new 52-week lows today. Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) dropped about 9.3% today to post a new 52-week low of $284.00. The stock’s...
  • The 4 DJIA Stocks That Boosted the Market

    Paul Ausick
    24 Oct 2014 | 1:01 pm
    October 24, 2014: Markets opened slightly higher on Friday, and following a short trip below the break-even line, marched higher and appear headed to close up for the second consecutive day. With one...
  • Publisher of Coming Book on Cybercrime Hacked

    Paul Ausick
    24 Oct 2014 | 11:18 am
    In what may be an ironic twist to recent reports of hacker attacks, one of the businesses that reported a hack last week was Sourcebooks Inc., the publisher of a soon-to-be released book on organized...
  • The Real Reason Pandora Shares Are Getting Clobbered

    Paul Ausick
    24 Oct 2014 | 9:40 am
    Pandora's problem is not that its quarterly numbers aren't okay, it is that it faces a lot of competition.
  • SodaStream’s Limited Test With Pepsi

    247chrislange
    24 Oct 2014 | 9:20 am
    SodaStream stock screamed higher on reports that the company will be partnering with PepsiCo.
 
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    The Baseline Scenario

  • No, You Can’t Get a Drink at 5 AM

    James Kwak
    16 Oct 2014 | 5:28 am
    By James Kwak I’m in the United Club at SFO waiting for a flight, and the bar is closed until 8. So much for business travel. I just published a post over at Medium that is really about two things: how both airline marketers and on-campus recruiters perpetuate the idea that air travel is glamorous, even when all of us know that it isn’t. It’s sort of a sequel to one of my favorite posts of those I’ve written, “Why Do Harvard Kids Head to Wall Street?” which I think is the one Paul Tough mentioned in his book about grit. Now that it’s recruiting…
  • Cultural Capture and the Financial Crisis

    James Kwak
    9 Oct 2014 | 6:27 am
    By James Kwak A few years ago, while still in law school, I was invited to write a chapter for a Tobin Project book on regulatory capture. It was a bit intimidating, being part of a project that included luminaries like David Moss, Dan Carpenter, Luigi Zingales, Richard Posner, Tino Cuellar, and the deans of two of the best law schools in the country. I was asked to write something about an idea that I had slipped into 13 Bankers, almost in passing, about the cultural prestige of the financial industry and the political and regulatory benefits the industry derived from that prestige. My…
  • Game of Thrones, The Wire, and the New York Fed

    James Kwak
    30 Sep 2014 | 8:07 am
    By James Kwak I wrote a column that went up this morning at The Atlantic about the ProPublica/This American Life story about the New York Fed. The gist of the argument is that we all knew the New York Fed was captured; for people like Tim Geithner, that’s a feature, not a bug. There was a paragraph in my original draft that I really liked, but I can completely understand why the editors didn’t want it: “When Tyrion Lannister wants his son killed, he sentences him to death in public. When Avon Barksdale wants potential incriminating witnesses killed, he obliquely lets his…
  • New Collection on Medium

    James Kwak
    25 Sep 2014 | 6:49 am
    By James Kwak I’ve joined a new collection on Medium devoted to business and finance writing. It’s called “Bull Market,” after an intense lobbying campaign (including alleged vote-buying, although I haven’t tried to collect) by Felix Salmon, and includes Felix, Mark Buchanan, Dan Davies, Alexis Goldstein, Francine McKenna, Evan Soltas, and Mark Stein. The goal is to write thoughtful articles that don’t just respond to the latest story on the wire (although there will be some of that, too). My contribution for today is a post about the no-poaching lawsuit…
  • Changes

    James Kwak
    19 Sep 2014 | 1:40 pm
    By James Kwak You may have noticed that my blogging has tailed way off over the past few months—to, well, just about nothing. You probably noticed that it was pretty spotty for a long time before that. The main reason is that I’ve been busy with a new teaching job, which requires some effort on academic publications, and raising two small children. The other major factor is that I often just find I don’t have much that’s original to say. Financial regulation is a pretty heavily covered field, and I don’t have the time to be a real expert on, say, derivatives…
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    Trends... Find them, ride them and get off.

  • The Biotech Boom …Too Late to Buy?…and Why Everyone Should Allocate to Trend Followers…

    Howard Lindzon
    23 Oct 2014 | 8:28 am
    If being right and not making money is a sin…I am going to hell. A very hot part of it. Every year I underperform in the markets. Not the averages, just my abilities based on the opportunities. I buy too late, I sell to soon. I am at mostly at peace with it because of the opportunities. They just keep coming. Staying in the business has been the way I have operated since 1998 when I started my hedge fund and thought it would be my life work. Sixteen years later I still have most of my original limited partners. They know I have distractions and flaws and I could probably be better at…
  • Today is a BETTER day to Panic

    Howard Lindzon
    21 Oct 2014 | 8:02 am
    Last week, the markets were going to zero thanks to Ebola and Netflix. Nike was the new Fila and Apple was the next Blackberry. The VIX spiked to 28 and the ‘Fear and Greed Index’ on CNN was 1. I was a buyer and outlined some of them in this blog post. As of this morning I am out of 3/4 of the stock I rented. I was willing to own for longer, but I will take the large quick gains. Biotech has continued to lead this market and barely budged in the big panic of 2014. It has quickly reasserted itself. For now, panic has subsided, but if you were scared and hoped your pain would end,…
  • Stocktoberfest – How to Invest for Profit and Joy as the Boom Continues

    Howard Lindzon
    20 Oct 2014 | 10:14 pm
    The glass is half full in my world…despite the mainstream media, net neutrality, Ebola and negative interest rates, I pop out of bed every morning to invest. The internet is industrial, energy is ‘tilting to the power grid‘, the ‘personal cloud‘ is coming, the enterprise is getting ready to spend and hire, ‘fashology‘ is now more fashion than technology, crowdfunding is not a fad, driverless cars and the ‘pivot to passive‘ are a reality and the super rich want to live forever and sleep on demand (biotech is booming because nature is a…
  • The Inconceivable Rally is Dead…Ebola and Netflix Killed It!

    Howard Lindzon
    15 Oct 2014 | 7:32 pm
    I love Netflix, I just don’t own it. Tonight, I feel a little less stupid. The stock has had more panic attacks than Tony Soprano. Tomorrow it is set to open down $120 points. Let’s put it all in a perspective: The stock has broken all laws of physics for technicians. Moving on… Since September….short indexes, long Ebola stocks has been a career maker. Maybe three people on the planet got this trade dead right and they won’t be on Twitter or CNBC. I watched the trade develop on Stocktwits ticker streams but did not participate. So many people in my stream have…
  • Ebola Won…But I am Buying

    Howard Lindzon
    15 Oct 2014 | 11:29 am
    The US markets are now all down on the year…which I sum up below in a cashtag: Goldman Sachs stock now negative on the year which means as usual…record bonuses… GS — Howard Lindzon (@howardlindzon) Oct. 15 at 09:07 AM Go watch Jon Stewart from last night if you want a hint of any truth on #EBOLA. I still don’t care how and why the markets are plunging, but they are. The signals were there starting in February when we discussed the small caps breaking down. When fear grips Wall Street, the ‘sell’ button becomes easy to hit. Your cool ‘robo’…
 
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    Economic Principals

  • Imperfect Competition, Legitimate at Last

    dw
    19 Oct 2014 | 1:00 pm
    The Nobel award  last week to Jean Tirole, of Toulouse School of Economics, capped a twentieth-century drama whose story has barely begun to be told. I can describe it here only in the broadest way; thanks to the Swedes, the details will now gradually emerge, as did those of similar developments in the past. But some idea about the episodes’ broader place in the scheme of things, as it pertains to you, can be had by viewing it in historical perspective. The story begins in the 1920s, in the years before John Maynard Keynes took center stage.  Edward Chamberlin (1899-1967) was a bright…
  • The Badger

    dw
    12 Oct 2014 | 1:37 pm
    American International Group minority shareholder Maurice (Hank) Greenberg, 89, sued the US government in 2011, charging the bargain it drove when it rescued the enormous insurance company he had built from humble beginnings was not only extortionate (the Federal Reserve Board took 80 percent of A.I.G.’s stock) but illicit, to boot. US Court of Claims Judge Thomas Wheeler, a referee in matters where the government is involved, agreed to hear the case. Last summer the jurist set out  his ambitions this way: I think by the time we get finished with this case and we have our trial, we’re…
  • Busted!

    dw
    5 Oct 2014 | 4:08 pm
    Not for the first time, EP chose a topic too difficult for the time allotted. Back next week. dw Share/Bookmark
  • Early Warnings

    dw
    29 Sep 2014 | 3:44 am
    The course in introductory computer science at Harvard College this year surpassed elementary economics in popularity. It has 818 enrollments, or nearly 12 percent of the undergraduate population, compared to 711 students in Economics 10. For most of the last thirty years, the economics course has been the catalog’s top offering. The swing probably reflects the expert showmanship of computer scientist David Malan more than any underlying change in the relative importance of the fields. (See this eye-opening account of Malan’s entrepreneurial flair by Cordelia Mendez, and/or read this…
  • Meanwhile, in the Annals of Citizenship

    dw
    21 Sep 2014 | 1:34 pm
    US capitalism seems to be taking another turn.  The Old Normal (Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different) was the expectation that, even after a serious banking crisis, growth would resume its long-term annual trend of 2.0 percent in five years or so. The New Normal says, “Forget the trend.” Robert Gordon, of Northwestern University, and Lawrence Summers, of Harvard University, expect slow growth for decades, thanks to various “headwinds,” or constraints on potential output  (Gordon); or insufficient demand, stemming from a savings glut (Summers). A lively…
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    Marginal REVOLUTION

  • China fact of the day

    Tyler Cowen
    24 Oct 2014 | 11:39 pm
    This year China is set to pay an interest bill of about $1.7tn, an amount not far short of India’s entire GDP last year ($1.87tn) but larger than the economies of South Korea, Mexico and Indonesia. That is from James Kynge at the FT, there is more here.
  • Always gamble on an empty stomach?

    Tyler Cowen
    24 Oct 2014 | 10:38 pm
    So says one new paper on PubMed, by de Ridder D, Kroese F, Adriaanse M, Evers C.: Three experimental studies examined the counterintuitive hypothesis that hunger improves strategic decision making, arguing that people in a hot state are better able to make favorable decisions involving uncertain outcomes. Studies 1 and 2 demonstrated that participants with more hunger or greater appetite made more advantageous choices in the Iowa Gambling Task compared to sated participants or participants with a smaller appetite. Study 3 revealed that hungry participants were better able to appreciate future…
  • Ebola markets in everything

    Tyler Cowen
    24 Oct 2014 | 10:31 am
    Ebola plush toys have been selling so fast in response to this year’s outbreak that a Connecticut manufacturer, Giantmicrobes Inc., can’t keep them in stock. The company, which was founded a decade ago, makes stuffed toys based on the appearance of microbes like Ebola, Chicken pox, bed bugs, and even non-harmful microscopic organisms things like brain and red blood cells. The items are meant to be educational tools for young children, Laura Sullivan, vice president of operations, told CBS News. There is more here, and for the pointer I thank James Lynch.  Via Tim Harford, here is…
  • Assorted links

    Tyler Cowen
    24 Oct 2014 | 8:49 am
    1. Where is the missing right of center media? 2. There is no great stagnation (juvenile, skip it). 3. Unemployment and the minimum wage in China. 4. Do hedge funds get there first? 5. Did Thor Heyerdahl have a point after all? 6. Why not make your car a cathedral? 7. Ferns.
  • Digital Non-Cash

    Alex Tabarrok
    24 Oct 2014 | 4:29 am
    In the United States we are using advanced technology like fingerprint scans to pay for goods. In Venezuela they are using advanced technology like fingerprint scans to ration goods. Here is the WSJ: Amid worsening shortages, Venezuela recently reached a milestone of dubious distinction: It has joined the ranks of North Korea and Cuba in rationing food for its citizens. …Under the system in place here, basic price-controlled items—including milk, rice, coffee, toothpaste, chicken and detergent—are rationed, with the fingerprinting machine used to ensure that a shopper doesn’t…
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    Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

  • Liveblogging World War II: October 25, 1944: WHERE OH WHERE IS TASK FORCE 34?

    J. Bradford DeLong
    24 Oct 2014 | 10:15 pm
    James D. Hornfischer: The Last Stand of the Tin Can Sailors: At 6:35 A.M., as sunrise revealed a grayed-out and hazy dawn, the most powerful concentration of naval gun power the Japanese empire had ever assembled reordered its geometry in preparation for daylight operations. Twenty-five miles to Taffy 3’s north, lookouts on the heavy cruiser Chokai and light cruiser Noshiro reported aircraft approaching. So Halsey’s planes were coming after all, Takeo Kurita must have thought. Almost simultaneously, cat-eyed lookouts on the battleship Nagato spied masts on the horizon visible here and…
  • Jeff Madrick, Josh Bivens, Brad DeLong, Ylan Mui: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America

    J. Bradford DeLong
    24 Oct 2014 | 2:49 pm
    EPI: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America: "
  • Ted Cruz’s Deputy Chief Nick Muzin Blamed Ebola on Obamacare. Really

    J. Bradford DeLong
    24 Oct 2014 | 2:17 pm
    Chris Caesar: Ted Cruz’s Deputy Chief Blamed Ebola on Obamacare. Really
  • For the Weekend: The Drop...

    J. Bradford DeLong
    24 Oct 2014 | 2:16 pm
    Tom Hardy is amazing...
  • Noted for Your Afternoon Procrastination for October 24, 2014

    J. Bradford DeLong
    24 Oct 2014 | 12:50 pm
    Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog On Jeff Madrick et al.: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Morning Must-Read: Jeff Weintraub: China's Man in Hong Kong Explains the Problem with Democracy-It's a Threat to Capitalism - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Lunchtime Must-Read: Gavyn Davies: China’s Slowdown Is Secular, Not Cyclical - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Morning Must-Read: Alan Zibel: Low Down Payments Are Coming Back - Washington Center for Equitable Growth Morning Must-Read: Michela Giorcelli and Petra…
 
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    Dani Rodrik's weblog

  • Services, manufacturing, and new growth strategies

    Dani Rodrik
    15 Oct 2014 | 7:15 am
    I gave a talk yesterday on New Growth Strategies at the World Bank, which was more or less an elaboration of this short piece. I argued that industrialization had pretty much run out of steam as a growth strategy, that services would need to be the focus going forward, and that this required in turn a different policy mindset about how to increase productivity. In particular, I argued that policies focusing on generating a sequence of sectoral “winners,” which worked so  well in manufacturing (garments to car seats to cars to electronics), would have much smaller payoff in services,…
  • Back to sanity on economic convergence

    Dani Rodrik
    11 Sep 2014 | 1:50 pm
    It’s been interesting to watch how the conventional wisdom on rapid convergence – developing countries closing the gap with the advanced economies – has been changing over the last few years. It wasn’t so long ago that the world was in the grips of emerging-markets mania, projecting wildly optimistic growth numbers decades into the future. For the last 4-5 years, I have been writing that the pace of convergence we have experienced over the last two decades is unsustainable. There were temporary factors (cheap capital, low interest rates, high commodity prices, rapid Chinese expansion)…
  • My moonlighting career of the last 4 years

    Dani Rodrik
    25 Jun 2014 | 10:20 am
    At long last, Turkey's consitutional court has reversed the conviction of the more than 200 officers previously found guilty in the bogus Sledgehammer coup plot, leading to the release on June 19th of all those in jail (including my father in law). Even though a retrial is to take place, the ruling is a coda to the last four-and-a-half years during which my wife and I moonlighted as criminal investigator, forensic analyst, and political activist. It has been a truly surreal and bizarre experience, given how so many intelligent people bought into -- and refused let go of -- a coup plot…
  • Joining Global Policy as general editor

    Dani Rodrik
    31 May 2014 | 3:37 pm
    David Held is one of the most thoughtful researchers and commentators on global issues, so I am thrilled and honored to be joining forces with him as joint general editor of Global Policy. The journal publishes a range of exciting academic and policy oriented pieces. Check it out here.
  • Erdogan’s Coup

    Dani Rodrik
    27 May 2014 | 5:57 am
    Daron Acemoglu wrote what seemed like a surprising upbeat piece on Turkish democracy a few days ago. His argument seems to be that democracy required power to be wrested away from the secularists who had erected authoritarian structures, and Erdogan had achieved that. Even though, Erdogan’s recent turn to authoritarianism is “lamentable,” it was, Acemoglu claims, a predictable stage in Turkey’s democratic transition. Once Erdogan is gone, the article implies, democracy would be on a stronger footing than ever. There were in fact many other paths that could have proved less costly. The…
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    99% Invisible

  • 137- Good Bread

    Roman Mars
    22 Oct 2014 | 12:30 am
    The first print advertisement for Wonder Bread came out before the bread itself. It stated only that “a wonder” was coming. In a lot of ways, the statement was true. Wonder Bread was the perfect loaf.  “Slow food” advocates have pronounced industrial white bread of any brand a symbol of a modern grocery problem:  we consumers don’t know where our food comes from. The funny thing is that industrial white bread—that evenly sliced, squishy, moist, perfectly white and wondrous loaf—was once a highly designed solution to that very same problem. ***SUPPORT THE 2014 RADIOTOPIA…
  • Kickstart Radiotopia- A Storytelling Revolution

    Roman Mars
    19 Oct 2014 | 4:14 pm
    When you support Radiotopia, you are making sure 99% Invisible can keep coming to you weekly and you’ll be supporting our entire collective of award-winning, independent radiomakers. Please go to our Kickstarter page and back us in our effort to remake radio for the most innovative creators and curious listeners. Thanks! https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1748303376/radiotopia-a-storytelling-revolution  
  • 136- Lights Out

    Roman Mars
    14 Oct 2014 | 11:26 am
    On July 13th, 1977, lightning struck an electricity transmission line in New York City, causing the line’s automatic circuit breaker to kick in. The electricity from the affected line was diverted to another line. This was fairly normal and everything was fine—until a second bolt of lightening struck. Electric lines started shutting themselves off. As more and more lines were shut off, the system started to shut itself down. Eventually, the largest power generator in the area, known as Big Allis, turned itself off. And then all of New York City went dark. On that evening, DJ…
  • 135- For Amusement Only

    Roman Mars
    7 Oct 2014 | 4:17 pm
    Everyone has tried it at some point. The authorities started turning a blind eye years ago, but it wasn’t officially legalized until the summer of 2014. Finally, after more than 80 years of illegitimacy, the City of Oakland has legalized…pinball machines. Pinball’s design history can help explain why it was illegal for so long.
  • 134- The Straight Line Is A Godless Line

    Roman Mars
    30 Sep 2014 | 4:08 pm
    Straight lines form the core of our built environment. Building in straight lines makes predicting costs and calculating structural loads easier, since building materials come in linear units. Straight lines might be logical, predictable, and efficient, but they are also completely “godless”—at least according to Austrian artist and designer Tausendsassa Friedensreich Regentag Dunkelbunt Hundertwasser (which translates to “Multi-Talented Peace-Filled Rainy Day Dark-Colored Hundred Waters” in German). Hundertwasser made a name for himself, so to speak, with his…
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    Eat the Bankers.com

  • A Solid Week in a Rocky Month

    Sinclair Noe
    24 Oct 2014 | 4:02 pm
    Financial Review DOW + 127 = 16,805 SPX + 13 = 1964 NAS + 30 = 4483 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.27% OIL – .80 = 81.29 GOLD – .90 = 1232.00 SILV + .01 = 17.31 Last Friday we covered some technical analysis of the equity markets, looking at support and resistance, as well as a short-term bullish pattern, a morning star that had formed. Sure enough, this week provided the follow through on that bullish pattern. Major indices snapped a 4-week string of losses. For the week, the Dow gained 425 points, or 2.5%. The S&P gained 78 points, or 4.1%. And the weekly gain for the Nasdaq was…
  • A Boatload of Economic News and Earnings Reports

    Sinclair Noe
    23 Oct 2014 | 4:14 pm
    Financial Review DOW + 216 = 16,677 SPX + 23 = 1950 NAS + 69 = 4452 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.28% OIL + 1.33 = 81.85 GOLD – 9.10 = 1232.90 SILV + .02 = 17.30 The S&P 500 has risen five times in the past six days, pushing the gauge up 4.9 percent since Oct. 15 and recouping about half the losses from a selloff that began in mid-September; the S&P is still down about 3 percent from a record. The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which tracks deals involving mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said home prices in August were up 4.8% from the year-earlier period; and up a…
  • Inflation or the Lack Thereof

    Sinclair Noe
    22 Oct 2014 | 4:14 pm
    Financial Review DOW – 153 = 16,461 SPX – 14 = 1927 NAS – 36 = 4382 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.23% OIL – 2.06 = 80.43 GOLD – 8.40 = 1242.00 SILV – .34 = 17.27 The major stock indices were higher this morning, then they dropped about the time were heard reports of a shooting in Ottawa Canada, near the parliament building. The shooting in the Canadian capital left a soldier dead and the city on lockdown. The Labor Department said the Consumer Price Index edged up 0.1% last month. In the 12 months through September, the CPI rose 1.7%. The core CPI, which strips out food and energy…
  • Financial Engineers at the Gate

    Sinclair Noe
    21 Oct 2014 | 4:14 pm
    Financial Review DOW + 215 = 16,614 SPX + 37 = 1941 NAS + 103 = 4419 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.21% OIL + .64 = 82.55 GOLD + 2.50 = 1250.40 SILV + .09 = 17.62 In economic news, the National Association of Realtors reports sales of existing homes rose 2.4% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.17 million, hitting the fastest pace in one year and rebounding from an unexpected drop in August. However, September’s pace of sales was down 1.7% from a year earlier. So, the housing market isn’t roaring, but lower interest rates managed to pull some buyers off the sidelines last…
  • A Tale of Three Stocks

    Sinclair Noe
    20 Oct 2014 | 4:40 pm
    Financial Review DOW + 19 = 16,339 SPX + 17 = 1904 NAS + 57 = 4316 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.18% OIL – .21 = 81.85 GOLD + 8.70 = 1247.90 SILV + .16 = 17.53 A nice bounce in the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite. For most of the session, the Dow was in negative territory, clawing its way to positive, barely. There are 3 stocks that had a compelling story today. We start with IBM, which reported its third-quarter results; a 10th consecutive period of falling sales, marked by weaker performance in growth markets. IBM said its long-standing forecast of earnings per share of $20…
 
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    iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

  • Does Raising the Minimum Wage Hurt Employment? Evidence from China

    iMFdirect
    23 Oct 2014 | 6:46 am
    By Prakash Loungani (version in 中文) Raising the minimum wage is a polarizing issue. One side worries that raising it will lower employment. The other side downplays the impact on employment and plays up the positive impact on the living standards of the poor. Both sides are able to cling to their beliefs as the evidence, much of which comes from high-income (“advanced”) economies, is mixed. The majority of the global labor force, however, is in the emerging markets. Moreover, for a number of these countries, instituting a minimum wage or raising it is squarely on the policy agenda.
  • Natural Gas: The New Gold

    iMFdirect
    22 Oct 2014 | 8:16 am
    By Rabah Arezki Natural gas is creating a new reality for economies around the world.  Three major developments of the past few years have thrust natural gas into the spotlight: the shale gas revolution in the United States, the reduction in nuclear power supply following the Fukushima disaster in Japan, and geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. What’s cooking Over the last decade, the discovery of massive quantities of unconventional gas resources around the world has transformed global energy markets, and reshaped the geography of global energy trade (see map). Consumption of…
  • Banks Should Help, Not Hinder the Economy

    iMFdirect
    20 Oct 2014 | 8:11 am
    By Will Kerry and Andrea Maechler  Banks are struggling to overhaul the way they do business given new realities and new regulations adopted in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. While banks are generally stronger—they have more capital—they are less profitable, as measured by the return on equity. There are a number of reasons behind this, including: anemic net income at banks, particularly in the euro area; higher levels of equity; and banks taking fewer risks. If they cannot change their business models, there is a risk that banks will not be able to provide enough credit…
  • Good Governance Curbs Excessive Bank Risks

    iMFdirect
    16 Oct 2014 | 8:44 am
    By Luis Brandão-Marques, Gaston Gelos, and Erik Oppers  The global financial crisis reminded us that banks often take risks that are excessive from society’s point of view and can damage the economy. In part, this is the result of the incentives embedded in compensation practices and of inadequate monitoring by stakeholders.  Our analysis found the right policies could reduce banks risky behavior. Our findings In our latest Global Financial Stability Report we take stock of recent developments in executive pay, corporate governance, and bank risk taking, and conduct a novel empirical…
  • A Mirage, Not An Oasis: Easy Money and Financial Markets

    iMFdirect
    15 Oct 2014 | 8:09 am
    By Fabio Cortes, David Jones and Evan Papageorgiou Low interest rates and other central bank policies in the United States have sent investors looking for higher returns on their investments. Money is pouring into mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, which is fueling a mispricing of credit and a build-up of risks to liquidity in the markets—the ability to trade in assets of any size, at any time, and to find a ready buyer. Mutual funds and exchange-trade funds are the largest owners of U.S. corporate and foreign bonds (Chart 1). This means they provide a lot of credit to grease the…
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    WordPress.com News

  • The NaMos are Coming! The NaMos are Coming!

    Michelle W.
    24 Oct 2014 | 8:00 am
    November is one week away, and that means NaNoWriMo and NaBloPoMo are, too! If you’ve been thinking about reinvigorating your blogging or are finally ready to stop procrastinating on that book you’ve always wanted to write, these two great events (and communities) can give you the jolt of motivation you need. NaMo what now? NaNoWriMo and NaBloPoMo are short for “National Novel Writing Month” and “National Blog Posting Month,” respectively. In the first, writers commit to writing a 50,000-word novel between November 1 and November 30; in the second, to…
  • New Themes: Minnow and Cols

    Tammie Lister
    23 Oct 2014 | 8:00 am
    We’re happy to introduce two brand new free themes today! Minnow Designed by Mel Choyce, Minnow is a light, simple theme that puts your social presence front and center. A social links menu is displayed prominently below the site title and logo, so readers can easily find you on your favorite social networks. When activated, the optional Custom Menu or Widget area appear in a slide-out sidebar, making secondary content accessible while keeping the focus on your content. Learn more about the free Minnow theme at the Theme Showcase, or preview it by going to Appearance → Themes. Cols…
  • Longreads’ Best of WordPress, Vol. 7

    Mark Armstrong
    22 Oct 2014 | 10:08 am
    Here it is! A new collection of our favorite stories from across all of WordPress. As always, you can find our past collections here. You can follow Longreads on WordPress.com for more daily reading recommendations, or subscribe to our free weekly email. Publishers, writers, you can share links to your favorite essays and interviews (over 1,500 words) on Twitter (#longreads) and on WordPress.com by tagging your posts longreads. 1. What Happens When a Veteran High School Teacher Becomes a Student for the Day Grant Wiggins “I waited fourteen years to do something that I should have done my…
  • A New My Sites Section

    Andy Peatling
    20 Oct 2014 | 10:10 pm
    My Sites just got a new look, but more importantly, it got a technical overhaul, making the page dramatically faster and more powerful. From one central location, scan and select any of your WordPress sites or create new ones with the support of a more visual interface. Head directly to the posts or pages of a particular WordPress or launch stats to glimpse trends and get inspiration for blog or website content.  Access themes, user settings, and sharing options with a click to make WordPress your own. The new My Sites page is a small piece of a larger effort to make WordPress.com faster,…
  • New Theme: Penscratch

    Caroline Moore
    16 Oct 2014 | 10:00 am
    Today we have a brand new free theme especially for writers and bloggers! Penscratch Penscratch is a clean, sophisticated theme for sharing your writing. Whether you’re working on an analytical essay, an anthology of poems, or a piece of long-form fiction, Penscratch makes for a pleasant reading and writing experience all around. Choose between a one- or two-column layout by adding widgets, add links to your favorite social networks, customize your home on the web with a site logo or header image, or add fancy pull quotes throughout your content. Penscratch is also responsive, ensuring…
 
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    Carl Futia

  • Guesstimates on October 24, 2014

    24 Oct 2014 | 6:17 am
    December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1938-1956. I think last week’s low ended a reaction in a bull market and that the averages are headed above their September highs. QQQ: Upside target is 102. TNX (ten year note yield): So far the low yield was 1.86% and I now think that low yield marked the start of a move to and above the 3.00% level.  Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 120. Dollar-Yen: Next stop is 112.  December Crude:   I think the longer…
  • Attention Traders

    23 Oct 2014 | 10:23 am
    As you know I have started to post the S&P E-mini trades I make in my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime  on this blog's Twitter feed (at the top of the right hand column). You can follow me here on Twitter for free but keep in mind that the trade postings are delayed 5-10 minutes. Since I started posting these trades in October 2013 they have generated  a 43% return trading a single contract per $10,000 of account equity (a very conservative approach since day trade margin on a single contract is only about $2,700). Since the start of the seminar 42 months ago the trades made in…
  • all clear?

    23 Oct 2014 | 10:22 am
    As you know I have been thinking that a bear market has begun ever since all three of my main trend indicators at the top of this post dropped below their respective 50 day moving averages (green line). Subsequently the Dow and the S&P 500 also dropped below their 200 day averages (red lines). I thought this event had very bearish implications because the drop below the 200 day moving averages was accompanied by very high trading volume.You can see on the charts above that both the Dow and the S&P have snapped back quickly and have retraced all of the drop below the 200 day moving…
  • Guesstimates on October 23, 2014

    23 Oct 2014 | 5:52 am
    December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1922-1945. A close in the cash S&P 500 above 1944 would be a close above the .618 retracement level and this would cast serious doubt on my bear market hypothesis. Unless and until this I am sticking with my bearish view. QQQ: Resistance at 96 has been broken. A close above 98 would put the Q’s back above the 50 day moving average and cast serious doubt on my bear market hypothesis. TNX (ten year note yield): So far the low yield was 1.86%. Further stock market weakness would drop the 10 year yield to 1.60%. But if no such…
  • Guesstimates on October 22, 2014

    22 Oct 2014 | 6:19 am
    December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1922-1943. A close in the S&P 500 above 1944 would be a close above the .618 retracement level and this would cast serious doubt on my bear market hypothesis, especially because the 4 day rally we have just seen has the characteristics of a “kick-off” for a much bigger trend. But for the time being I am sticking with my bearish view. QQQ: Resistance at 96 has been broken. A close above 98 would put the Q’s back above the 50 day moving average and cast serious doubt on my bear market hypothesis. TNX (ten year note yield):…
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    True Economics

  • 24/10/2014: Weekly Russian Economy Update

    24 Oct 2014 | 10:57 am
    Bofit released some latest data on Russian economy, so here is the summary, with some of additional points by myself.September economic activity acceleration came as a bit of a surprise.Manufacturing output was up 4% y/y, driven in part by devaluation of the ruble and in part by increased oil refining activity.Defense spending is up 33% y/y in January-September, which also is helping manufacturing orders.Agricultural output is sharply up as harvest hits near-record levels.Consumption is up as retail sales rose 1.7% y/y with non-food sales up 3.5%. Some observers suggest that households are…
  • 24/10/2014: One Ugly with some Ugly Spice... EURO STOXX EPS

    24 Oct 2014 | 9:52 am
    It's Friday... ECB is coming up with the banks tests on Sunday... And before then, if you want 'ugly', here's 'ugly':The above chart plots Earnings per Share, in euro, for S&P500 and for EURO STOXX. It comes via @johnauthersNow, despite this, you wouldn't believe it, but roughly 68% of European companies reporting earnings this quarterly cycle to-date have been outperforming analysts expectations.And for some real 'ugly' spice on top of this pizza, the sub-trend decline in the EPS for European stocks has set on roughly H2 2011... something we shall remember when we re-read all the…
  • 24/10/2014: Behavioural Political Economy

    24 Oct 2014 | 5:38 am
    A very interesting survey paper on the topic of behavioural drivers of political economy by Schnellenbach, Jan and Schubert, Christian, titled "Behavioral Political Economy: A Survey" (September 30, 2014. CESifo Working Paper Series No. 4988. http://ssrn.com/abstract=2507739).From the abstract:"Explaining individual behavior in politics should rely on the same motivational assumptions as explaining behavior in the market: That’s what Political Economy, understood as the application of economics to the study of political processes, is all about." So far - fine.However, there is a…
  • 23/10/2014: Irish Residential Property Prices: Q3 2014 data

    23 Oct 2014 | 5:28 am
    Latest data for residential properties price index for Ireland is out, covering September. Instead of repeating all the analysis provided elsewhere, here is a look at quarterly data series and longer-term comparatives.Firstly, on quarterly basis, Q3 2014 ended with index averaging at:79.1 in Dublin, up strongly on Q2 2014 reading of 72.0. This brings property prices to the levels of Q2 2010 or on pre-crisis comparative basis close to Q4 2002 (80.8).  Year on year prices in Q3 2014 stood 23.9% above Q3 2013 reading, which is a modest increase on Q2 2014 y/y increase of 21.2%.Outside…
  • 23/10/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, October 2014

    23 Oct 2014 | 2:23 am
    BlackRock Investment Institute released the latest Economic Cycle Survey results for EMEA:"The consensus of respondents describe Russia, Croatia, Egypt and the Ukraine in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Hungary and Turkey to be in a recessionary or contraction phase. Over the next two quarters, the consensus shifts toward expansion for Egypt and Turkey"Red dot represents Czech Republic, Kazakhstan, Israel, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia"At the 12 month horizon, the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same with the exception of…
 
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    Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

  • New Residential Construction Report: September 2014

    17 Oct 2014 | 1:01 pm
    Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed mixed results with total permit activity and total start activity improving while single family permit activity declined since August.Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, declined 0.5% from August to 624K single family units (SAAR), but increased 1.1% above the level seen in September 2013 and still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005.
  • Retail Sales: September 2014

    15 Oct 2014 | 7:25 am
    Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales showing mixed results in September with sales dropping 0.3% from August but rising 4.3% on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services. Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales declined slightly, falling 0.14% from August but rising 2.16% above the level seen in September 2013 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales…
  • Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – October 15 2014

    15 Oct 2014 | 6:57 am
    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications. The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases. The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate…
  • Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls and Civilian Unemployment September 2014

    3 Oct 2014 | 9:27 am
    Today's Employment Situation Report indicated that in September, net non-farm payrolls increased by 248,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 236,000 jobs while the civilian unemployment rate declined declined to 5.9% over the same period.Net private sector jobs increased 0.20% since last month climbing 2.25% above the level seen a year ago and climbing 1.61% above the peak level of employment seen in December 2007 prior to the Great Recession.
  • Employment Situation: Unemployment Duration September 2014

    3 Oct 2014 | 9:23 am
    Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed mostly improved in September while still remaining distressed by historic standards.Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more declined to 2.954 million or 31.9% of all unemployed workers while the median term of unemployment increased to 13.3 weeks and the average stay on unemployment went declined to 31.5 weeks.
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    The Economic Populist

  • Inflation Deceptive, CPI 0.1% Yet Some Items Off the Charts

    Robert Oak
    22 Oct 2014 | 3:24 pm
    The monthly Consumer Price Index increased 0.1% for September.   CPI measures inflation, or price increases.  September shows relief at the pump while steak lovers are hurting.  Core inflation is below the Fed's target point.  Yet while the monthly inflation number seems low, the situation is actually much more of a mixed bag, in part due to the way CPI is tabulated. Share
  • Existing Home Sales Feed Wall Street's Surge

    Robert Oak
    21 Oct 2014 | 2:29 pm
    The existing home sales headlines blare this is the highest increase for 2014.  That is true, yet the increase isn't much of a soar, more of a bounce back from last month's -1.75% decline. The NAR reported existing home sales increased 2.4% from last month and are down -1.7% from last year.  This represents 5.17 million homes at annualized rates. Share
  • Wikileaks Exposes Trans-Pacific Partnership as Bad Trade Deal Again

    Robert Oak
    21 Oct 2014 | 12:29 am
    Enslaved through trade,  That seems to be the agenda with trade agreements these days.  Over and over again national law, the common good is overwritten through bad trade deals.  Wikileaks has exposed yet another horror from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement being negotiated.  It seems freedom loving, Democratic United States is leading the charge to ensure life saving drugs are not affordable for most people. Share
  • Our dizzyingly aromatic world, made so by manipulative corporate chemistry, deserves the angry retort: "Non-Scents!"

    sylvia kronstadt
    19 Oct 2014 | 12:28 pm
      Share
  • It's Economic Theory, Stupid

    Econ_unmasked
    19 Oct 2014 | 12:00 pm
    As often as Carville's catch phrase has been recycled in its more popular form of "It's the economy, stupid" it doesn't quite hit the mark. While Carville's insight might lead to a political victory for a candidate, it does not necessarily lead to an economic solution. It is only an observation of the disease, not its cause. The cause, as we argued in "The Unraveling of Economics", is economic theory itself. In other words, our woes can be traced to the fact that there has never been a sound theory of economics. Share
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    Stock Trading To Go

  • STTG Market Recap October 24, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    24 Oct 2014 | 4:50 pm
    Indexes finished off their best week of 2014 with another solid gain despite quite overbought conditions. The S&P 500 lurched forward 0.71% and the NASDAQ 0.69%. We are now up 5% since St Louis Fed President James Bullard said the Fed should consider delaying the end of quantitative easing on October 16th. Earnings continue to be the focus of the market, but we did have a new... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap October 23, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    23 Oct 2014 | 5:17 pm
    ndexes gapped up at the open and stayed strong all day as corporate earnings reports generally pleased investors; some more Ebola news late in the day took indexes a bit off their highs. The S&P 500 jumped 1.23% and the NASDAQ 1.60%. There was decent economic news out of Europe which also helped the mood. Original post: STTG Market Recap October 23, 2014 Read the full article at... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap October 22, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    22 Oct 2014 | 4:45 pm
    Indexes opened up Wednesday but sold off in the afternoon. Some cited a shooting in Canada as a reason but the reality is when you enter a day so extremely overbought a "reason" will be found to slow momentum. Weakness in oil also hurt the energy sector. The S&P 500 fell 0.73% and the NASDAQ 0.83%. The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index edged up 0.1 percent in September after... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap October 21, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    21 Oct 2014 | 4:19 pm
    Indexes gapped up sharply at the open and ran all day as the market put together its 3rd strong day in a row. The S&P 500 surged 1.96% and the NASDAQ 2.40%. This three day move is very similar to most rallies we have seen since 2009 in that we call it a "V shaped" move. As usual central bank activism has been a key reason to rally as Reuters reported the European Central Bank is looking... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap October 20, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    20 Oct 2014 | 4:13 pm
    Monday's action in the indexes is more typical of how a bull market rally behaves; early selling is met with a rush of buyers. After a quick open to the downside buyers jerked the indexes up immediately and a steady stream of buying came in all day. The S&P 500 gained 0.91% and the NASDAQ 1.35%. A dearth of news was probably a good thing today. After the bell all eyes were on Apple... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
 
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    Peter Gallagher

  • Is a plurilateral the ‘way out’ for WTO on agriculture?

    pwg
    1 Oct 2014 | 2:42 pm
    Q: under what circumstances would a critical-mass (CM) plurilateral agreement on agriculture be a way “out of the mess” in the WTO agriculture negotiations? A: any CM plurilateral works as a “way out” of the WTO stalemate where it offers a degree of benefits to the members of the plurilateral agreement such that they were […]
  • Evaluation of a “Critical Mass” agreement on agriculture

    pwg
    1 Oct 2014 | 4:55 am
    The stalemate in Geneva on the December 2013 Bali Agreement concerning both Trade Faciliation and agriculture subsidies has revived some interest in the potential for a plurilateral agreement on Agriculture among WTO members. I attach to this brief post a pre-print of the summary that Andy Stoler and I wrote for the journal Global Governance […]
  • Editing Scrivener ‘Sync’ files

    pwg
    28 May 2014 | 4:57 am
    Do you use Scrivener? If so, and you’d like to edit your Scrivener files on another platform such as your iPad, I may have something that will help. I’ve made some ‘bundles’ and themes for the TextMate editor and the Textastic editor on the iPad that display inline annotations, comments and block-quotes in the text. […]
  • The longevity of plain TeX

    pwg
    29 Apr 2014 | 2:52 pm
    Microsoft Word was first released for MS DOS in October, 1983. Some five months earlier, Donald Knuth, a professor of computing at Stanford University, published “The TeX Book.” This was a jokey manual for, and a deft demonstration of, his TeX publishing program whose stable version first appeared in 1982. Each of these contemporary works […]
  • The physical science of climate change

    pwg
    18 Apr 2014 | 7:23 pm
    I’m late finding this Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) report. I include the summary of their findings on the physical science here because they accord with my present assessment. I would have added only one thing to the recitation below. I do not know why the NIPCC omitted it. That is: the IPCC’s […]
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    WILLisms.com

  • Wendy Davis Burned Through Her Out-Of-State Money, Can't Compete Down The Stretch

    Will Franklin
    6 Oct 2014 | 7:56 pm
    Texas Democrat Wendy Davis reported a miserable $3.2 million cash on hand today in her gubernatorial campaign's coffers, along with $2.5 million more combined from three other committees. Republican Greg Abbott, meanwhile, reported more than thirty million bucks cash on hand, without aid from any other committees (click image for a larger version): Political Science professor Mark P. Jones of Rice University noted over the summer that for Wendy Davis to be even remotely competitive, she would need to spend at bare minimum $10 million in the final month. Here's the quote from the article:…
  • On Socialism. And Wendy Davis.

    Will Franklin
    8 Sep 2014 | 1:55 pm
    Socialism, as defined (above) by Google. Note the synonyms. It's a loaded word in political discourse, evoking emotional reactions in many, but socialism seems to have lately (and quite suddenly) lost all meaning to post-Cold War kids. Indeed, in a recent CBS/New York Times poll, only 16% of millennials could even say what socialism is, while only a still-embarrassing 30% of those aged 30 and up could define it (57% of Tea Partiers knew about socialism, by contrast). Meanwhile, socialism itself has been mainstreamed as perfectly acceptable within the Democratic Party, while those who warn…
  • Texas Political Enthusiasm Gap Continues.

    Will Franklin
    30 May 2014 | 11:04 am
    After the March primary elections in Texas, it was clear that Democrats, particularly Wendy Davis, had a serious problem. An enthusiasm gap. Well, the runoff election this week exposed further weakness in the Democrats' plan to turn Texas blue-- or even a bit purplish-- in 2014. Here's why: (click for larger version) Approximately 200,000 more people voted in the Republican runoff (~750K) in May than voted in the Democrat primary (~550K) in March. Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton each received more votes in the Republican runoff than Wendy Davis earned in the Democrat primary. More people voted for…
  • Not All Bonds Pass: An Analysis Of Eanes I.S.D.'s Failed Bond Proposal.

    Will Franklin
    12 May 2014 | 5:57 pm
    Total new debt for fast growth Texas school districts passed over the weekend: $3,880,386,500 #TxLege— Scott Braddock (@scottbraddock) May 12, 2014 Actually, statewide, the total was more than $6 billion. And, as the Texas Public Policy Foundation noted, prior to this weekend’s bond elections, Texas’ local governments had already amassed almost $325 billion in total debt, enough red ink to soak every man, woman, and child in the Lone Star State with more than $12,000 of local debt obligation. Across Texas over the weekend, small numbers of voters approved billions of dollars in new…
  • Forgotten Time Capsule From 1966 Discovered During Home Renovation. What Happened Next Will Make You Cry.

    Will Franklin
    3 Apr 2014 | 4:50 pm
    First off, apologies for the obnoxious Upworthy/Buzzfeed type of headline. But this really is a bit of a tear-jerker, in many ways. A woman in Arizona created a time capsule in 1966 and buried it in the walls of her home. Nearly fifty years later, it was discovered during a home remodel. A few things about this jumped out at me. First, it is a sad story, obviously, because the woman died tragically in the 1970s, and the husband (who had moved out of the home long ago) had no idea the time capsule even existed until just now. Now, maybe the political contents of the letter might have made the…
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    Political Calculations

  • Drawing the Perfect Circle

    24 Oct 2014 | 12:55 am
    We need you to watch the following video, in which Dave Hax describes how to freehand draw a perfect circle. Once you've seen how, we need you to duplicate his "target" pattern of the three concentric circles on a sheet of paper, making the innermost one as small as you can draw: After you've drawn your target pattern, fill in the innermost circle to represent the eye of the target. Then note that when it came to anticipating where stock prices were going this past volatile week, we hit all of our marks within that innermost circle. Again. But then, it's been an easy week. As easy as drawing…
  • The Impact of a Foreign Terror Incident on the U.S. Stock Market

    23 Oct 2014 | 12:39 am
    The unfortunate news of yesterday's Parliament Hill terrorist incident in Ottawa provides the background for a quick study of the impact that such events can have on the U.S. stock market. We classify these kinds of events as noise events, since they have no effect upon the fundamental drivers of stock prices, nor do they have any lasting impact upon stock prices. But they can have a short term effect, which we'll attempt to quantify. To do that, we'll do an event analysis using the basic timeline that we've been able to put together from reports by The Globe and Mail, International Business…
  • Why the Future Matters More than the Now for Stock Prices

    22 Oct 2014 | 12:19 am
    Since we're now outside of the anniversary period of 2013's U.S. debt ceiling crisis, the third and smallest of the major noise events of 2013, we're making the transition back to using our standard baseline model for use in forecasting and explaining changes in current day stock prices. Something that people like Catherine Rampell would not appear to believe is even possible. Even though the period from 1 October through 17 October is somewhat affected by the echo effect's impact on our mathematical model of how stock prices work, it's pretty small in size. That's certainly true after we…
  • FY 2014: To Whom Does the U.S. Government Owe Money?

    21 Oct 2014 | 12:48 am
    Who were the major holders of debt issued by the U.S. federal government as of the end of its 2014 fiscal year? The preliminary answer of who owns the $17.860 trillion in debt issued by the U.S. federal government as of 30 September 2014 is presented graphically below: The data for foreign holdings will be revised over the next six months. We anticipate that the holdings indicated for Belgium will be shifted to other foreign entities, given that nation's role as an international banking center. Since FY2013Since the end of the U.S. government's 2013 fiscal year on 30 September 2013, the total…
  • The Evolving Future of the S&P 500: 2014-Q3

    20 Oct 2014 | 1:34 am
    Since the S&P 500 is behaving so predictably, and because we just visited the topic on Thursday, 16 October 2014, we thought we'd take this opportunity to revisit how the stock prices of the S&P 500 behaved in the third quarter of 2014. Our first animated chart shows how stock prices behaved with respect to our standard baseline model, in which we incorporate the historic stock prices of one year earlier as the base reference points from which we project stock prices in the near term future: Since we knew coming into the quarter that our standard baseline model's projections would be skewed…
 
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    Calafia Beach Pundit

  • Claims collapse

    23 Oct 2014 | 2:03 pm
    On a four-week moving average basis, weekly initial claims for unemployment in April 2000 were a few thousand lower than they were last week (top chart), but compared to the size of the workforce, they have never been lower than they were last week (second chart). The only potentially disturbing thing about this is that recessions tend to follow lows in unemployment claims. Maybe, if things can't get much better, they are likely to get worse? I think that's a premature concern, if not an meaningless concern. Low levels of firings don't cause recessions. Low levels of firings usually…
  • Robust construction and CRE conditions

    22 Oct 2014 | 11:52 am
    Surely this news is not widely appreciated:According to the American Institute of Architects (AIA), their September billings index "shows robust conditions ahead for [the] construction industry." The billings index, shown in the chart above, is registering new highs for the current business cycle. Furthermore, "the recently resurgent Institutional sector is leading to broader growth for the entire construction industry.” According to the CoStar Group, "demand [for commercial property] continues to outstrip supply across major property types, resulting in tighter vacancy rates and…
  • How China could explain the decline in gold

    21 Oct 2014 | 1:58 pm
    In January, 2013, I wrote a post titled "Developments in China explain the end of gold's rise." I speculated that China's spectacular growth over the previous two decades, which included a monster accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and a significant appreciation of the yuan, could have been the driver for the the incredible rise in gold prices. I then noted the slowing in China's accumulation of forex reserves, the slowing in Chinese economic growth, and the beginnings of stabilization of its currency, and asserted that "the boom in gold is over." Shortly thereafter gold suffered a…
  • Reading the bond market tea leaves

    20 Oct 2014 | 3:27 pm
    Nominal 10-yr Treasury yields have fallen from 2.6% in mid-September to as low as 1.9% last week, followed by a rise to today's 2.2%. The decline mainly reflects a moderation of inflation expectations which in turn are being driven by a 20+% decline in oil prices since June. Real yields on 5-yr TIPS—which I believe closely track the market's real GDP expectations—have gyrated in the past month or so because the bond market has been worried about the "contagion" risk that the U.S. economy faces because of slower growth in the Eurozone and Asian economies, and a "Black Swan" outbreak of…
  • Still no signs of deflation

    16 Oct 2014 | 9:47 am
    Fears of deflation are all the rage these days. Phrases like this can be found everywhere: Europe is "perilously close" to deflation, major economies face the "specter" of deflation, Eurozone "deflation threat" looms, the clear and present "danger" of deflation, the risk of deflation fuels global fears, etc.It's completely overblown. Deflation is not like a black hole that sucks economies in once they cross the zero price change event horizon. Just because Europe's CPI increase is approaching zero doesn't mean the Eurozone economy is going to collapse or that something urgent needs to be…
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    Donald Marron

  • A “Normal” Budget Isn’t Really Normal

    Donald
    20 Oct 2014 | 7:15 am
    Treasury closed the financial books on fiscal 2014 last week. As my colleague Howard Gleckman noted, the top line figures all came in close to their 40-year averages. The $483 billion deficit was about 2.8 percent of gross domestic product, for example, slightly below the 3.2 percent average of the past four decades. Tax revenues clocked in at 17.5 percent of GDP, a smidgen above their 17.3 percent 40-year average. And spending was 20.3 percent, a bit below its 20.5 percent average. Taxes, spending, and deficits thus appear to be back to “normal.” If anything, fiscal policy in 2014 was…
  • The $300 Billion Question: How Should Congress Budget for Federal Lending Programs?

    Donald
    29 Sep 2014 | 9:48 am
    Lending programs create special challenges for federal budgeting. So special, in fact, that the Congressional Budget Office estimates their budget effects two different ways. According to official budget rules, taxpayers will earn more than $200 billion over the next decade from new student loans, mortgage guarantees, and the Export-Import Bank. According to an alternative that CBO favors, taxpayers will lose more than $100 billion. Those competing estimates pose a $300 billion question: Which budgeting approach is best? As I document in a new report and policy brief, the answer is neither…
  • Four Myths about Entrepreneurship

    Donald
    17 Sep 2014 | 1:40 pm
    Dane Stangler at the Kauffman Foundation debunks four myths about entrepreneurship: Spoiler: 20-somethings make headlines, but founders in their 30s and 40s are more important. (Disclosure: The Kauffman Foundation funds some of my research at the Urban Institute.)
  • Does the Export-Import Bank Make or Lose Money?

    Donald
    10 Sep 2014 | 9:00 am
    Suppose your aunt decides to start a business making pizza ovens. She will design and build the ovens, and her daughter will manage operations. A bank is ready to lend her $100,000 to get started, but it wants someone to co-sign and be on the hook if she misses any payments. She offers to pay you $6,000 to do so. A business-savvy friend tells you that missed payments on such a loan average $2,000, usually less, occasionally much more. He also reports that $7,000 is the going rate for co-signing. Those insights spark lively family debate. Your aunt believes her proposal is a no-brainer. She…
  • How Economic Insights Shaped the Web Economy

    Donald
    30 Aug 2014 | 2:22 am
    In this TEDx talk, Bob Litan shows how economic insights shaped the web economy, from dating to search to travel to logistics.
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    Supply and Demand (in that order)

  • Radio interview with Kudlow and Batchelor

    15 Oct 2014 | 7:30 am
    Jumps to 19:46Download
  • How Obamacare Begets Gender Inequality

    7 Oct 2014 | 9:48 am
    How Obamacare Begets Gender InequalityBy Casey MulliganIn the past four decades, millions of American women have entered the workforce, sought out new occupations, and embarked on professional careers. In fact, by 2013, just 18 percent of working women worked only part time. This marks a sharp reversal of conditions in 1975, when men did the vast majority of full-time work, while women were less likely to be employed at all and nearly a quarter worked 20-hours per week or less.These gains in gender equality are threatened by two provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) ironically…
  • Labor Market Jumps in September

    3 Oct 2014 | 8:33 am
    The labor market really jumped in September. Part of this is rounding error on weekly hours, which went to 34.6 after six consecutive months at 34.5 (the jump from 34.4 to 34.5 can be seen by comparing January and March of this year. In Jan of this year average weekly hours jumped from 34.3 to 34.4). But it is still surprising because the jump is more than twice the amount created by rounding error.
  • Real PCE in August

    29 Sep 2014 | 6:07 am
    Real personal consumption expenditures per capita grew a lot from July to August (0.5 percent in one month; annualized that's 5.7 percent). The year-over-year growth is 1.9 percent; about a quarter of that growth occurred in one month. Over the prior three years, real PCE per capita had been growing 1.3 percent per year.
  • The Myth of Obamacare's Affordability

    8 Sep 2014 | 9:38 am
    Copyright, Dow Jones & CompanyWhether the Affordable Care Act lives up to its name depends on how, or whether, you consider its consequences for the wider economy.Millions of people pay a significant portion of their income for health insurance so they and their families can get good health care when they need it. The magnitude of their sacrifices demonstrates the importance that people ascribe to health care.The Affordable Care Act attempts to help low- and middle-income families avoid some of the tough sacrifices that would be necessary to purchase health insurance without assistance. But…
 
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Solution to the helicopter design problem

    Andrew
    24 Oct 2014 | 6:14 am
    See yesterday’s post for background. Here’s the question: In the helicopter activity, pairs of students design paper ”helicopters” and compete to create the copter that takes longest to reach the ground when dropped from a fixed height. The two parameters of the helicopter, a and b, correspond to the length of certain cuts in the paper, parameterized so that each of a and b must be more than 0 and less than 1. In the activity, students are allowed to make 20 test helicopters at design points (a,b) of their choosing. The students measure how long each copter takes to reach the…
  • No, Michael Jordan didn’t say that!

    Bob Carpenter
    23 Oct 2014 | 2:08 pm
    The names are changed, but the song remains the same. First verse. There’s an article by a journalist, The odds, continually updated, by F.D. Flam in the NY Times to which Andrew responded in blog form, No, I didn’t say that, by Andrew Gelman, on this blog. Second verse. There’s an article by a journalist, Machine-Learning Maestro Michael Jordan on the Delusions of Big Data and Other Huge Engineering Efforts, by Lee Gomes, published in IEEE Spectrum (the “light” magazine you get when you join IEEE). to which Michael Jordan responded in blog form, Big Data, Hype,…
  • Some questions from our Ph.D. statistics qualifying exam

    Andrew
    23 Oct 2014 | 6:07 am
    In the in-class applied statistics qualifying exam, students had 4 hours to do 6 problems. Here were the 3 problems I submitted: In the helicopter activity, pairs of students design paper ”helicopters” and compete to create the copter that takes longest to reach the ground when dropped from a fixed height. The two parameters of the helicopter, a and b, correspond to the length of certain cuts in the paper, parameterized so that each of a and b must be more than 0 and less than 1. In the activity, students are allowed to make 20 test helicopters at design points (a,b) of their choosing.
  • Stan 2.5, now with MATLAB, Julia, and ODEs

    Bob Carpenter
    22 Oct 2014 | 12:59 pm
    As usual, you can find everything on the Stan Home Page. Drop us a line on the stan-users group if you have problems with installs or questions about Stan or coding particular models. New Interfaces We’d like to welcome two new interfaces: MatlabStan by Brian Lau, and  Stan.jl (for Julia) by Rob Goedman. The new interface home pages are linked from the Stan home page. New Features The biggest new feature is a differential equation solver (Runge-Kutta from Boost’s odeint with coupled sensitivities). We also added new cbind and rbind functions, is_nan and is_inf functions, a…
  • Sailing between the Scylla of hyping of sexy research and the Charybdis of reflexive skepticism

    Andrew
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:56 am
    Recently I had a disagreement with Larry Bartels which I think is worth sharing with you. Larry and I took opposite positions on the hot topic of science criticism. To put things in a positive way, Larry was writing about some interesting recent research which I then constructively criticized. To be more negative, Larry was hyping some sexy research and I was engaging in mindless criticism. The balance between promotion and criticism is always worth discussing, but particularly so in this case because of two factors: 1. The research in question is on the borderline. The conclusions in…
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    Capital Chronicle

  • World Economic Outlook, 2014: forecasting made easy

    9 Oct 2014 | 5:57 am
    Three econometricians are out hunting. They spot a stag. Given this is a story about economists let us assume it is a deaf stag.The first econometrician aims, fires but misses to the left by a metre. The second econometrician takes aim, fires and also misses - but by a metre to the right. The third econometrician does not take aim or fire. Exultant, he cries out "Nailed it!"Visually this joke appears thus: Source: Page 26, World Economic Outlook, Oct 2014 (IMF)  
  • Uncertainty vs risk: S&P500 volatility since 1929

    7 Jul 2014 | 1:49 pm
    This from Goldman Sachs' Top of Mind Global Macro Research report of 25 Jun, 2014:Although the detail within the GS report is balanced this shorter and sharper piece from the FT's Underground Economist distills the debate with no great loss of message.(And that Professor Bloom paper the FT cites is here)
  • Curse of Reinhart & Rogoff strikes Piketty

    23 May 2014 | 11:28 pm
    If only Mr. Rogoff had waited a couple of weeks before reviewing Mr. Piketty's opus here the result might have been far more entertaining (as well as thought-provoking).Why? Mr. Piketty got the R&R treatment from the FT this week (right here, you may have to register to see). Some of the criticism is about data sources; some is about data adjustments; and some concerns data selection. But the underlying question is about the combination of these and their subsequent interpretation.The New York Times captures that last point when commenting on this graphic from the FT piece written by…
  • What do you have to do to lose your US banking license?

    1 May 2014 | 5:04 am
    More anti-bank developments reported here by Dealbook featuring, amongst others, Preet Bharara the US attorney in Manhattan. It was Bharara who took down Galleon and saw that Rajaratnam got jail time. After that conviction Bharara said:“The message today is clear — there are rules and there are laws, and they apply to everyone, no matter who you are or how much money you have.” Now he (and others) are seeking to walk the talk by bringing criminal charges against two foreign banks operating in the US.Tough ask? Law breaking and deception by banks have only been met to date with…
  • When PIIGS and BRICS aren't enough

    2 Apr 2014 | 6:11 am
    Yes, the metaphoric jargon jungle has expanded to include EAGLES and Nests according to BBVA research. Nice graphics tho:The full Emerging And Growth Leading Economies report with its fearless 10 year forecasts can be enjoyed here.
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    TheMoneyIllusion

  • The problem with procyclical inflation

    ssumner
    24 Oct 2014 | 6:41 pm
    Here’s Charles Evans in the WSJ: “We’ve averaged well under that 2% mark for the past six-and-a-half years,” Mr. Evans said. “With a symmetric inflation target, one could imagine moderately above-target inflation for a limited time as simply the flip side of our recent inflation experience–and hardly an event that would impose great costs on the economy.” There’s no doubt in my mind that a policy of letting inflation run a bit above target during the next boom will not cause great hardship during the next boom But a policy of running inflation below target when…
  • Layoffs reach the lowest level EVER

    ssumner
    23 Oct 2014 | 8:30 am
    A few weeks ago I pointed out that new claims for unemployment (4 week average) as a share of total employment had reached the lowest level since April 2000.  I predicted it would soon beat that record.  Now it has; they are at the lowest level ever.  Here’s what we know (or at least I suspect) about the new economy: 1.  Low interest rates are the new normal. 2.  Low layoffs are the new normal. 3.  High stock prices are the new normal. 4.  Greater income inequality is the new normal. 5.  Fewer people moving between states is the new normal. 6.  Slow RGDP growth is the new…
  • Did QE worsen inequality? That’s not even a question

    ssumner
    23 Oct 2014 | 8:11 am
    When people ask whether QE worsened inequality they think they are asking a coherent question. But that merely shows how poorly most people understand monetary economics. Let’s ask a different question:  Did Obama’s appointment of Ben Bernanke increase inequality? Any sensible listener would ask: “Compared to what?”  After all, most models are roughly linear, at least for very small changes (I’m rusty at math, so tell me if that is wrong.)  In other words, whatever impact monetary policy has on inequality, the impact of picking Bernanke over a more dovish…
  • Ben Southwood finds lots of evidence for (market) monetarism

    ssumner
    22 Oct 2014 | 3:15 am
    Ben Southwood of the Adam Smith Institute has several recent blog posts that are well worth reading. When the Bank moves its key policy rate, commentators talk about it hiking or cutting interest rates; on top of this, we’ve seen extremely low effective interest rates in the marketplace; together this makes it reasonable to believe that the central bank is the cause of these low effective rates. There are lots of reasons to doubt this claim. In a previous post I pointed out that the spreads between Bank Rate and market rates seem to be narrow and fairly consistent—until they’re not.
  • Quick update on NGDP futures

    ssumner
    21 Oct 2014 | 7:08 am
    No one told me it was going to be hard to give away money!  Seriously, there are a few more complications than I anticipated, and I am now waiting for specific instructions from iPredict and Hypermind about how to proceed.  But it will get worked out. Meanwhile the early Hypermind Q3 futures contract, with 100 euros in prize money, has now been upgraded to a combined Q3 and Q4 with 1000 euros in prize money. So it just became much more attractive.  Recall that at Hypermind, traders do not have to put up their own money–it’s not “gambling.”  But you do need to…
 
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    Jesse's Café Américain

  • Yellen's Big Trickle Down Dilemma

    25 Oct 2014 | 12:43 am
    Why is the economy so sluggish? Even if real wages are stagnant, and consumers are tapped, the Banks have been saved and stand ready to loan from an abundance of freshly created money (that they can obtain for almost nothing).  
  • The Reason There Has Been No Sustainable Recovery

    24 Oct 2014 | 8:48 pm
    “When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done” John Maynard Keynes   How can an economy based on printing money and financial repression for a broken financial system achieve self-sustaining organic growth?
  • Shanghai Delivers 51.5 Tonnes of Gold For the Week: How Long Can the Gold Pool Be Sustained

    24 Oct 2014 | 5:54 pm
    "For 'tis the sport to have the engineer Hoist with his own petard: and it shall go hard But I will delve one yard below their mines, And blow them at the moon." William Shakespeare, Hamlet
  • Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Plus C'est la Même Chose - Mandatory Quarantines

    24 Oct 2014 | 1:32 pm
    Gold and silver were stopped in their tracks, as the price dominant Comex continues to exert its inordinate influence over the real world economies. There was apparently little activity in the Comex delivery and so they did not bother to issue a report yet today. In silver there was a rather large deposit of silver bullion of about 2,258,516 ounces into the HSBC warehouse as you can see
  • SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - V Bottom Back To 50 DMA

    24 Oct 2014 | 1:22 pm
    “America is the wealthiest nation on Earth, but its people are mainly poor, and poor Americans are urged to hate themselves... Americans, like human beings everywhere, believe many things that are obviously untrue. Their most destructive untruth is that it is very easy for any American to make money. They will not acknowledge how in fact hard money is to come by, and, therefore, those who have
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    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • Immigration & capitalism

    chris dillow
    23 Oct 2014 | 6:31 am
    John Harris writes: Perhaps those who reduce people’s worries and fears [about immigration] to mere bigotry should go back to first principles, and consider whether, in such laissez-faire conditions, free movement has been of most benefit to capital or labour. Let's do this. Here are some first principles:  - Factor price equalization. Foreign workers can bid down British wages through trade. Whether they come here or not, their effect on wages is much the same.  - Complementarities. Some foreign workers are complements for native ones, and so raise wages of the latter. For…
  • Immigration & capitalism

    chris dillow
    23 Oct 2014 | 6:24 am
    John Harris writes: Perhaps those who reduce people’s worries and fears [about immigration] to mere bigotry should go back to first principles, and consider whether, in such laissez-faire conditions, free movement has been of most benefit to capital or labour. Let's do this. Here are some first principles:  - Factor price equalization. Foreign workers can bid down British wages through trade. Whether they come here or not, their effect on wages is much the same.  - Complementarities. Some foreign workers are complements for native ones, and so raise wages of the latter. For…
  • Persuasion with statistics

    chris dillow
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:39 am
    Mark Thoma's point that apparently strong econometric results are often the product of specification mining prompts Lars Syll to remind us that eminent economists have long been wary of what econometrics can achieve. I doubt if many people have ever thought "Crikey, the t stats are high here. That means I must abandon my long-held beliefs about an important matter." More likely, the reaction is to recall Dave Giles' commandments nine and 10. (Apparently?) impressive econometric findings might be good enough to get you published. But there's a big difference between being…
  • Facts, & the Establishment

    chris dillow
    21 Oct 2014 | 6:35 am
    Jeremy Duns accuses Owen Jones of some factual errors. Insofar as he's right, this actually strengthen the substance of Owen's big contention - that the Establishment is a self-regarding clique. Owen's errors are not decisive ones; the claims he has got wrong are not load-bearing ones. Nobody is going to think "So, the DESO doesn't exist any more. This shows that there's no such thing as crony capitalism." In pointing out his errors, Jeremy is not so much defending the Establishment as attacking Owen. Let's grant, for the sake of argument, that he's right…
  • Social mobility in a dystopia

    chris dillow
    20 Oct 2014 | 6:43 am
    I have long been sceptical of the feasibility and desireability of social mobility. Today's report by the Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission, though, makes me wonder: is social mobility an out-dated idea? To see my point, imagine two different societies. One is a bourgeois society, comprising a mass affluent middle class alongside some poverty. The other is a winner-take-all society in which the 1% enjoy huge incomes whilst the 99% just get by. Now, the Milburn Commission's recommendations make sense for a bourgeois society. Improving the educational opportunities of the…
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    David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

  • Bank may eventually rue leaving rates low for too long

    David Smith
    19 Oct 2014 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Even before the stock market had an attack of the vapours, other factors — a sharp fall in Britain’s inflation rate, renewed weakness in the eurozone,...
  • Time to join the dots on infrastructure spending

    David Smith
    12 Oct 2014 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. How do we build the infrastructure the economy is crying out for and the new housing a growing population sorely needs? Through the haze of the...
  • Don't forget the budget deficit's ugly sister

    David Smith
    5 Oct 2014 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. We have had the two main party conferences and the big revisions to Britain’s economic numbers. We now know the economy’s pre-crisis peak was exceeded in...
  • IEA's shadow MPC votes 6-3 for half-point rate hike

    David Smith
    5 Oct 2014 | 1:59 am
    In its email poll closing Friday 3rd October, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) recommended by six votes to three that Bank Rate should be raised on October 9th, including five votes for a rise...
  • Osborne's deficit plan gets lost in the statistical fog

    David Smith
    28 Sep 2014 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Maybe Ed Miliband should have talked about the budget deficit, and not just for the obvious reasons. Had the Labour leader done so he could have...
 
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    Top Gun Financial Planning

  • Pressure Point

    Greg Feirman
    13 Oct 2014 | 4:59 pm
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. Last Thursday and Friday were the worst two days for the markets since February.  The S&P is testing its 200 day moving average (DMA) for the first time in 2 years. Real fear has entered the market for the first time in quite a while.  5 1/2 years into the bull market investors are worried: Is this just a…
  • Riding The Bull

    Greg Feirman
    3 Sep 2014 | 7:47 am
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. Those of you who have followed me over the years know that I was slow to warm to this bull market.  However, in the last year I have evolved and come to embrace it.  I stopped trying to short it (see “The Loser’s Strategy”, August 4, 2013) and decided to invest more in line with what is…
  • Interview With Mint.com

    Greg Feirman
    5 Aug 2014 | 7:10 am
    Check out this short interview I did with Mint.com.  
  • It’s A Bull Market

    Greg Feirman
    16 Jul 2014 | 4:12 am
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. The S&P is up another 1% since I last checked in in early June (“That 2013 Feeling”, June 9) and what I said then still applies.  The path of least resistance continues to be higher. The stock market sold off yesterday on the following comments by Fed Chair Janet Yellen: Valuation metrics in…
  • That 2013 Feeling

    Greg Feirman
    8 Jun 2014 | 7:41 pm
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. Only a few weeks ago the S&P seemed stuck below 1900 and market sentiment had turned bearish.  Star hedge fund manager David Tepper punctuated the bearishness when he told an audience full of investors at the SALT Conference in Las Vegas “Don’t be too frickin’ long”. A few weeks…
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    Project Syndicate RSS-Feed

  • American-Made Financial Repression

    Andrew Sheng, et al.
    24 Oct 2014 | 5:50 am
    The late economist Ronald McKinnon argued that China and the US, by working together, could alleviate financial repression and enhance global monetary stability. Unfortunately, this advice is not popular among US economists and policymakers, who prefer the short-term political advantages afforded to them by free-market rhetoric.
  • The Cold War and the Cold Shoulder

    Ghia Nodia
    24 Oct 2014 | 4:20 am
    The Ukraine crisis has shattered key Western assumptions about Russia, and many analysts and policymakers have fallen back on the belief that Russian President Vladimir Putin must be acting irrationally. But it is Western assumptions that need to be questioned.
  • Ebola’s Next Frontier

    Hrishabh Sandilya, et al.
    23 Oct 2014 | 10:20 am
    The Ebola outbreak that has wreaked havoc in West Africa is stoking fears of an uncontrollable pandemic, though developed countries – and most developing countries – have little to fear. India, however, could be in serious danger.
  • Europe’s Fiscal Wormhole

    Guntram B. Wolff
    23 Oct 2014 | 9:30 am
    The fulfillment of policy rules in the eurozone appears to be impossible without growth, but growth appears to be impossible without breaking the rules. With all of the rules pointing toward recession, how can Europe boost recovery?
  • A New Macroeconomic Strategy

    Jeffrey D. Sachs
    23 Oct 2014 | 9:00 am
    Both neo-Keynesians and supply-siders have tried and failed to overcome the high-income economies’ persistently weak performance in recent years. It is time for a new approach, one based on sustainable, investment-led growth.
 
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    OilPrice.com Daily News Update

  • These Gold Numbers Are About To Hit A 15-Year High

    24 Oct 2014 | 7:40 am
    Things have changed a lot in the gold market--in a very short period of time.And news this week suggests that further structural changes are coming to the market. The kind we haven't seen in over 15 years.Specifically when it comes to gold hedging. The practice of forward-selling bullion in order to lock in a fixed price.With gold rising over a good part of the last decade, investors wanted as much exposure as possible to prices. With buyers betting that prices would continue to rise--generating increasing profits for companies that produce bullion.Related:…Read more...
  • Falling Coal Prices Wreaking Havoc With Corporate Balance Sheets

    23 Oct 2014 | 4:23 pm
    The slide in oil prices has raised speculation that oil companies in the U.S. could be forced to cut back on production, but a market slump in another commodity is also putting pressure on producers. Coal markets are currently experiencing a supply glut that is showing no signs of recovery. Mining companies drew up plans for billion-dollar projects in the mid-2000s, when commodity prices were on the upswing. With many of those projects now coming online, coal production is rising.BHP Billiton, an Australian mining giant, just opened a $3.4 billion…Read more...
  • Russian Credit Rating Slashed, Economic Future Remains Dim

    23 Oct 2014 | 4:05 pm
    The struggling Russian economy was short on good news last week as Moody’s Investors Service slashed the country’s credit rating to its second lowest level, Baa2, citing the crisis in Ukraine and Western sanctions. The move follows similar ratings downgrades by Fitch Ratings Ltd and Standard & Poor’s and reaffirms Russia’s meager medium-term growth prospects. In the more immediate future, Russian equity markets remain a risky play. Long term, the picture is less clear and Russia’s vitally important energy industry…Read more...
  • 8 Reasons For Our Oil Price Predicament

    23 Oct 2014 | 3:59 pm
    A person might think that oil prices would be fairly stable. Prices would set themselves at a level that would be high enough for the majority of producers, so that in total producers would provide enough–but not too much–oil for the world economy. The prices would be fairly affordable for consumers. And economies around the world would grow robustly with these oil supplies, plus other energy supplies. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem to work that way recently. Let me explain at least a few of the issues involved.1. Oil prices are…Read more...
  • Is The UK The Most Energy Secure Country In The EU?

    23 Oct 2014 | 3:25 pm
    Two related articles appeared in Blowout Week last Sunday. In the first the Daily Express fulminated about how the UK government’s energy policies will send electricity bills skyrocketing and maybe snuff the lights out at the same time:The green crusade of successive governments is set to double electricity bills for households and cost homes £26 billion a year by 2030, it was claimed yesterday. The cost of renewable energy and carbon taxes will put an extra £983 a year on household bills by then, compared to relying on a mix…Read more...
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    zentrader.ca

  • Wednesday Chartfest

    jeff pierce
    22 Oct 2014 | 11:20 pm
  • Markets Have Worked Off Bearish Momentum

    jeff pierce
    21 Oct 2014 | 10:16 pm
    By Jeff Pierce Now that the markets appear to have stabilized it’s OK to jump back in long trades…right? I believe the correct answer to be NO, based on that clear lack of leadership, declining volume on rallies, and the fact my timing signals and long term trend remain firmly down. Add on the fact that many weekly charts are starting to roll over on past leaders and it looks less and less likely that the Fed can print their way out of this one. I’m no permabear but I also don’t like how momentum stocks reacted over the last 3-4 weeks and without any new leadership…
  • Crude Has Likely Hit Rock Bottom

    Jeff Pierce
    20 Oct 2014 | 9:07 pm
    By Poly This is an excerpt from this week’s premium update from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly. Now offering monthly & quarterly subscriptions with 30 day refund. Promo code ZEN saves 10%. In the past, we’ve discussed at length the structural problems facing Crude. So the pressure the energy markets are under, both from the demand and supply sides, should come as no surprise. This double whammy to the Crude market is not likely to be resolved…
  • Hitchhiker’s Guide To Bear Markets

    chris
    19 Oct 2014 | 5:00 am
    By Chris Ebert As the Bull market sent stock prices higher and higher over the past several years, readers here were provided with a unique perspective – a perspective that ignores the news of the day, ignores corporate fundamentals, and even ignores most common forms of technical analysis. This perspective has managed to guide traders through the twists and turns of the Bull market, helping them to make rational trading decisions, avoiding unnecessary fear yet anticipating fear when fear is healthy, thus in better positions to reap profits in the stock market. Now that the Bull market…
  • Stock Market Bull Run Isn’t Done Until…

    chris
    13 Oct 2014 | 5:00 am
    By Chris Ebert This is either the beginning of the end for the recent 3-year uninterrupted run for the Bull Market and stock prices are headed much much lower;  or it’s the end of a healthy Bull-market correction and stock prices are in a position to surpass their recent all-time highs within a few short weeks. The two scenarios are polar opposites. Now may be a good time for a trader to consider using option performance as an indicator of which path the stock market is on at the moment. Everyone can use options, even folks that don’t trade options, if for nothing other than a…
 
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    NEW ECONOMY

  • Own the Change: Building Economic Democracy One Worker Co-op at a Time

    Kayla Schultz
    24 Oct 2014 | 12:10 pm
    "We moved from land ownership to home ownership, and it's time we move to workplace ownership." While many companies were cutting jobs during the recession, worker owned co-ops were growing and hiring employees. Not only do workers own a part of the business, but they are involved in decisions, and share responsibilities. This video, a trailer from a collaboration between GRITtv and the Toolbox for Education and Social Action, highlights the difficulties in developing a worker owned co-op, but those difficulties do not outweigh the benefits. A community develops in the workplace where co-op…
  • LA School District Uses Its Spending Power to Support Local Farms, Workers’ Rights, and Kids’ Nutrition

    J. Mijin Cha
    17 Oct 2014 | 4:05 pm
    This article is presented as part of New Economy Week, five days of conversation around building an economy that works for everyone. Today’s theme isThe New Economy Is Close to Home Photo by Brittany Randolph / Flickr. We face two equally urgent and significant crises: rising inequality and climate change. Rising inequality is not only morally unacceptable; it also hinders economic growth. Climate change is already impacting every part of the country, with low-income communities and communities of color getting hit first and worst. Fighting these two battles will require a fundamental…
  • Beating Climate Change by Retooling the Economy—The Story Begins in Navajo Country

    Mary Hansen
    17 Oct 2014 | 3:15 pm
    Photo by Scott* / Flickr. “I grew up without running water,” Nichole Alex, a young woman from Dilkon, Ariz., says in a video released by the activist group Black Mesa Water Coalition. Alex grew up on the Navajo reservation in the rural Black Mesa region of Arizona, where for decades a controversial coal mine emptied the region’s aquifer, leaving local wells dry. Many climate justice activists are refusing to be limited by the “jobs or the environment” dichotomy. “I grew up traveling 20 miles to gather water,” Alex continues. “That’s not fair, that my community is being…
  • Day 5 of New Economy Week: The New Economy Is Close to Home

    Kayla Schultz
    17 Oct 2014 | 12:10 pm
    This article was produced in partnership with the New Economy Coalition as part of the 2014 New Economy Week. Each day this week, YES! will publish articles responding to different topic prompts. Click here for more info. Boxes of jade beans are ready to be auctioned off at the Chesterhill Produce Auction in Chesterhill, Ohio, on Thursday, October 24, 2013. Photo by Brooke Herbert Hayes. Prompt 5: The New Economy is close to home. Our current economy is undermining our aspirations for a democratic society and it seems unlikely that national governments are going to turn it around any time…
  • After Years Without a Grocery Store, Greensboro Neighbors Are Building One Themselves—And They’ll Own It

    Dave Reed
    17 Oct 2014 | 12:10 pm
    This article is presented as part of New Economy Week, five days of conversation around building an economy that works for everyone. Today’s theme isThe New Economy Is Close to Home A still from a video in which residents of northeast Greensboro speak about their support for the Renaissance Food Co-op. In the late 1990s, the local Winn Dixie that had served the neighborhoods around Philips Avenue for many years closed down. Winn Dixie and other large grocery chains had divided up market territory, resulting in the closing of some stores despite their profitability. The loss of this Winn…
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    Central Bank News

  • Central Bank News Link List - Oct 24, 2014 - ECB set to fail 25 banks in review, draft document shows

    centralbanknews.info
    24 Oct 2014 | 9:13 am
    Here's today's Central Bank News' link list click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.ECB set to fail 25 banks in review, draft document shows (Bloomberg)Specter of no-inflation world looms over Fed’s return to normal (Reuters)Philippines’ Tetangco sees room to hold rates this year (Bloomberg)Japan’s economy floundering, BOJ to widely miss inflation goal (poll/Reuters)China…
  • Central Bank News Link List - Oct 23, 2014 - ECB bond purchases seen by traders exceeding $1 billion

    centralbanknews.info
    23 Oct 2014 | 10:20 am
    Here's today's Central Bank News' link list click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.ECB bond purchases seen by traders exceeding $1 billion (Bloomberg)BOJ Shirai: Diverging monetary policies may prompt Japan outflows (Reuters)Mario Draghi’s German problem (Reuters)ECB’s Mersch says European economy not out of danger zone (Reuters)LVR policy worth 50 bps of OCR rate tightening –…
  • Turkey holds rates, tight stance until inflation improves

    centralbanknews.info
    23 Oct 2014 | 6:15 am
        Turkey's central bank maintained its short term interests rates, including the benchmark one-week repo rate at 8.25 percent, repeating its recent guidance that a "tight monetary policy stance will be maintained, by keeping a flat yield curve, until there is a significant improvement in the inflation outlook."    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), which raised its repo rate by 550 basis points  to 10.0 percent in January and then began cutting it from May through July, said its macro prudential measures and its tight policy…
  • Philippines holds rate, sees lower inflation 2014-2016

    centralbanknews.info
    23 Oct 2014 | 3:03 am
        The central bank of the Philippines maintained its key policy rates at 4.0 percent and said inflation is expected to be lower than expected in the 2014-2016 period due to easing pressures on commodity prices while domestic demand remains resilient.    Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), which raised its rate last month to rein in inflationary expectations, also said the risks to inflation were broadly balanced and it was maintaining its policy stance to allow the tighter policy since March to work its way through the economy.    Last month BSP…
  • Norway holds rate, no guidance for same rate by end-'15

    centralbanknews.info
    23 Oct 2014 | 2:45 am
        Norway's central bank retained its policy rate at 1.5 percent, as expected, saying inflation and economic growth are largely as expected but the decline in oil prices and uncertainty surrounding the euro area had increased the uncertainty surrounding the outlook.    Norges Bank, which last cut its rate in March 2012, added that the Norwegian krone currency had also depreciated since its last meeting in September, reflecting the drop in oil prices.    In September the central bank said it expected the policy rate to remain at the current level until the end of…
 
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    Business Insider

  • Paris's Picasso museum finally reopens after renovation

    Helen Rowe
    25 Oct 2014 | 2:49 am
    Paris (AFP) - A top-level sacking, harsh words from the artist's son, delays and a huge budget overrun -- Picasso museum reopens its doors in Paris on Saturday amid the fallout from a fraught $71-million renovation.Just over five years after it closed for what was intended to be a two-year refurbishment, the museum -- housed in a 17th-century baroque mansion in Paris's historic Marais quarter -- has been extensively modernised and is more than twice its previous size.Costs, however, stand at 22 million euros ($27 million) over budget due to an increase in the scope of the works, a rift has…
  • Google exec makes record skydive from edge of space

    Rob Lever
    25 Oct 2014 | 2:48 am
    Washington (AFP) - A Google executive set a new record Friday by jumping successfully from near the top of the stratosphere -- some 135,000 feet, or 41,000 meters high, his project website said.The record dive by 57-year-old Alan Eustace, who is a "senior vice president of knowledge" at Google, was conducted as part of the Stratospheric Explorer project to allow manned exploration of the stratosphere above 100,000 feet.According to a statement from the Paragon Space Development Corporation, Eustace completed the four-hour mission over Roswell, New Mexico, using a specially designed space suit…
  • Williams beats Wozniacki to reach WTA Finals title match

    25 Oct 2014 | 2:27 am
    Singapore (AFP) - Two-time defending champion Serena Williams beat Caroline Wozniacki of Denmark 2-6, 6-3, 7-6 (8/6) to reach the WTA Finals title match in Singapore on Saturday.The world number one posted her fourth win of the year against Wozniacki and will face either Simona Halep or Agnieszka Radwanska in Sunday's final.Join the conversation about this story »
  • Lebanon army attacks gunmen in historic Tripoli market

    25 Oct 2014 | 1:43 am
    Tripoli (Lebanon) (AFP) - Lebanese troops attacked Islamist gunmen holed up in the historic market of the northern city of Tripoli Saturday, after deadly clashes rocked the longtime tourist attraction, an AFP correspondent reported.A gunman was killed, and nine soldiers and eight civilian bystanders wounded, in the fighting that erupted in the city's souks late on Friday, a security official told AFP on condition of anonymity.It was the first time since the civil war in neighbouring Syria erupted in 2011 that violence in Tripoli had spread to the market, which is listed by UNESCO as a world…
  • Botswana ruling party leads in early election results

    25 Oct 2014 | 1:28 am
    Gaborone (Botswana) (AFP) - Botswana's ruling party was leading in most local council constituencies as general election results trickled in Saturday, but opposition parties made a strong showing in the capital, the electoral commission said.There had been delays in the counting of parliamentary ballots and no results had been received so far, the Independent Electoral Commission spokesman Osupile Maroba told AFP."We are hoping to start receiving parliamentary results from 57 poling districts by mid-morning," he said.Parliamentary results will also determine who will be president for the next…
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    Business + Economy – Articles – The Conversation

  • Telstra gets serious about health, but will the public trust it?

    David Glance, Director of UWA Centre for Software Practice at University of Western Australia
    23 Oct 2014 | 5:29 pm
    Telstra is seeking a new type of connection with its customers. Joel Carrett/AAPAustralian telecommunications company Telstra has this week announced its intentions to significantly develop its health business. The latest addition to its portfolio of health services will come through a collaboration with Swiss company Medgate. Medgate currently offers Swiss patients the ability to consult with a doctor via telephone or computer and to order prescriptions online for home delivery. The arrangement with Medgate will launch in Australia as Telstra ReadyCare, some time in 2015. It is unclear what…
  • Abbott's court is full of flatterers, and it's a recipe for groupthink

    Ian McAuley, Lecturer, Public Sector Finance at University of Canberra
    23 Oct 2014 | 12:16 pm
    Some of the government's agencies didn't get the memo. Lukas Coch/AAPIn a democracy governments cop criticism: that’s a rule of politics. Opposition parties and politically-aligned organisations will always exploit opportunities to have a go at the government. But it is particularly irritating for a government when criticism comes from institutions noted for their political independence, and when some of its own agencies don’t seem to be fully on message. It is tough for a treasurer, intent on talking up the economy, when the Reserve Bank issues a subtle warning that Australia’s…
  • Self-driving cars will not help the drinking driver

    Ian J. Faulks, NRMA-ACT Road Safety Trust Research Scholar, Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety (CARRS-Q) at Queensland University of Technology
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:12 pm
    Is our car culture soon to come to an end? Jes/Flickr, CC BY-SAThere is an unexpected revolution underway in road safety. True, the highly visible community-wide programs continue, but behind the scenes there are major changes underway in how safety will be managed within road transport systems. The self-driving car (or “autonomous vehicle”) has emerged with a practical suite of technologies for more efficient, safer, and eco-friendly road travel. This emergence has been rapid: for example, the Australian National Road Safety Strategy 2011-2020 did not canvas the possibility of such…
  • To G or Not to G(20): that’s the question for Indonesia's new president

    Colin Brown, Adjunct Professor, Griffith Asia Institute at Griffith University
    22 Oct 2014 | 3:42 pm
    New Indonesian president Joko Widodo's still unsure about attending the G20 Summit in Brisbane. AAP Image/Eka NickmatulhudaAustralian prime minister Tony Abbott met with newly sworn Indonesian president Joko Widodo after his inauguration in Jakarta, inviting him to attend the G20 Summit in Brisbane. But Jokowi, as the new president is popularly called, said he could not confirm his attendance yet. In the space of a week after his 20 October inauguration, Jokowi has invitations to no fewer than five summit meetings: three linked meetings in Naypidaw, Burma on 9-11 November, involving ASEAN…
  • Australia's trade negotiating strategy fundamentally flawed

    Ann Capling, Provost at Murdoch University
    22 Oct 2014 | 12:20 pm
    The Abbott governments rush to sign bilateral trade deals with countries including Japan has meant quality has been sacrificed. Alan Porritt/AAPTen years on from the Australia-US Free Trade Agreement, Australia is entering another round of negotiations towards the new and controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership. In this Free Trade Scorecard series, we review Australian trade policy over the years and where we stand today on the brink of a number of significant new trade deals. Students of international relations are often introduced to the problems involved in sustaining international…
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    Mindful Money » Shaun Richards

  • How the economic debate for the upcoming UK General Election is already something of a fraud

    Shaun Richards
    3 Oct 2014 | 3:22 am
    Today sees my last blog for Mindful Money and as I am in a reflective mood  I would like to take you  back to the last UK General Election and the economic debate which took place then. If we go back to April 15th 2010 I pointed out this about the standard of the economic debate. However this is an area where all three main political parties have similar flaws in their plans. If you look at the three published manifestoes there is a hole in each of them of a similar size, £30 billion. So in truth none of them are being transparent and honest in their spending pledges. So the answer to the…
  • How has the recent strength of the UK Pound affected the UK economy?

    Shaun Richards
    2 Oct 2014 | 3:10 am
    One of the themes of this blog has been the impact of the rise in the value of the UK Pound sinces its nadir in March 2013. For example it has been a major factor in the decline in the annual rate of consumer inflation in the UK which at 1.5% is below its official target. Although the picture with our past target (RPIX) is not quite so favourable as it is only on target at 2.5% but it too has declined. Indeed if we look back we see that the push above 5% on both consumer inflation measures in the autumn of 2011 was influenced and exacerbated by the around 25% fall in the value of the pound…
  • How long can France afford its economy to continue stagnating for?

    Shaun Richards
    1 Oct 2014 | 3:24 am
    One of the themes of this blog over the past couple of years has been that the economy of France is struggling and stagnating. After an initial bounce-back from the effects of the credit crunch it has in essence flat-lined since then if we take the broader picture. Indeed the last four quarterly GDP prints have gone -0.1%,0.2%,0% and 0% in the second quarter of this year. The French statistics institute is trying to put its best face on matters by calling 0% “held steady”. Also the latest report had some ominous potential news for the future if we investigate the detail. while…
  • The UK economy gets quite a boost from the official statisticians

    Shaun Richards
    30 Sep 2014 | 3:22 am
    Today is the day that we discover how much the latest changes to how we measure the output of the UK economy have boosted the level of recorded Gross Domestic Product (GDP). So I do hope that UK based readers are feeling better off already! This is because some methodological changes are being applied at the same time as the final version of the GDP numbers for the secons quarter of 2014 are released. These changes have two major categories. The first is the normal revisions to reflect the fact that products and times change over time, otherwise we would not be counting tablets and…
  • Falling UK real wages cannot be covered up with housing market subsidies forever

    Shaun Richards
    29 Sep 2014 | 3:12 am
    Tomoorow we will discover exactly how much the new “improvements” (adding drugs and prostitution) and revisions will boost the size of the UK economy. In terms of economic output we only a partial result so far where economic output in current spending terms was revised up by 6.2% for the year of 2012. However these changes cut  directly across one of the fault lines of the credit cruch era which is that the aggregate numbers in the UK have diverged substantially from the individual ones. This is why official proclamations of success and triumph echo in people’s ears in…
 
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    SurvivalBlog.com

  • Notes for Saturday – October 25, 2014

    Hugh James Latimer
    24 Oct 2014 | 9:47 pm
    Today, we present another entry for Round 55 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The $12,000+ worth of prizes for this round include: First Prize: A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course (a $1,195 value), A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 Nato QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chromlined…
  • Relocating To A Safer Place, While The Opportunity Still Exists, by MWA

    Hugh James Latimer
    24 Oct 2014 | 9:46 pm
    For many reasons, my wife and I, along with our four children, left behind the city life in Florida two years ago. Crime, ranging from home invasions and break-ins to vehicle vandalism and car-jackings, which had spilled outward from the inner city into the suburbs where we owned a home, was increasingly being caught in the crosshairs of criminals. Mobs of rioting teenagers were occurring on the weekends at the local malls. If you were a female, alone, it was not safe to go grocery shopping at night. Locally, the public high schools, where our children were planning to attend the following…
  • Letter: .40S&W conversion for 9mm

    Hugh James Latimer
    24 Oct 2014 | 9:46 pm
    Hello, “Beretta 9mm Model 92/Centurion Owners – .40 S&W Kits Now on the Market” How long ago was this posted? Do you know if they still have the kits available? If so, can you direct me to it on the website? Thanks – HKL Hugh Replies: I would be careful about any conversion to bring a 9mm to .40S&W. I know the intent was to have the .40S&W available on 9mm frames, but the cartridge has considerably more energy than the 9mm. I had a .41AE conversion for a Browning HP that destroyed the HP. The locking lugs were rolled back to the point that accuracy was…
  • Economics and Investing:

    Hugh James Latimer
    24 Oct 2014 | 9:43 pm
    Regulators Close Small Illinois Bank. – G.G. o o o Items from Mr. Econocobas: 50 Percent Of American Workers Make Less Than 28,031 Dollars A Year Amazon’s Loss Makes Holidays A Question Mark Low Inflation? The Price Of Ground Beef Has Risen 17 Percent Over The Past Year Saudi Arabia Surprises with Less Supply, Oil Price Jumps
  • Odds ‘n Sods:

    Hugh James Latimer
    24 Oct 2014 | 9:43 pm
    Apparently, self-isolation only means isolation when it applies to everyone else. Everywhere the NYC Ebola Patient Went During His ‘Self-Isolation’ – P.M. o o o We are now several months into this “Ebola” issue, and I find it difficult that anyone could claim ignorance in dealing with disposal issues regarding this disease, given all of the hype it has received. Perhaps it’s time for a HAZMAT refresher course. NY Police Caught Throwing Waste From Ebola Scene Into Public Trash Can – P.M. o o o Courtesy of Backwoods Home Magazine: The state of freedom…
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    Trading Heroes

  • CAD JPY Oil Correlation Explained

    Hugh Kimura
    14 Oct 2014 | 2:46 pm
    Watching crude oil prices can help you fine tune your trading in the CADJPY currency pair. This post will show you why these currencies are so highly correlated to oil and how you use this to your advantage. It is not an exact science, but if you know what to look for, there are clues. The post CAD JPY Oil Correlation Explained appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • How To Do A Metatrader Sync Between Multiple Computers

    Hugh Kimura
    7 Oct 2014 | 11:21 am
    If you use multiple computers and want your Metatrader setup to remain the same across all of them, this is the easiest method that I have discovered for doing this. This post will show you how to set it up in just a few minutes and also give you the limitations of this method. The post How To Do A Metatrader Sync Between Multiple Computers appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • How To Find Out If You Are Paying Forex Chart Tax

    Hugh Kimura
    30 Sep 2014 | 10:37 am
    There is a hidden trading tax that some traders may not notice. Many times it is small, but sometimes it can make a huge difference. Find out how to avoid paying this tax in this post. The post How To Find Out If You Are Paying Forex Chart Tax appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • The Anatomy of Going on Tilt

    Hugh Kimura
    23 Sep 2014 | 8:22 am
    I went on tilt late last year and it has taken me awhile to come back from it. This post will analyze what I did, what I should have done and how you can prevent yourself from doing the same thing. You will also be able to see my current trading results and I would love to hear about your experiences. The post The Anatomy of Going on Tilt appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • Trade Interceptor For Mac Review (September 2014 Update)

    Hugh Kimura
    16 Sep 2014 | 3:05 am
    Trade Interceptor just became a brokerage and launched new versions of their mobile app. They also launched a new version of their desktop software for the Mac. I'm particularly excited because this is the first legit charting platform for Macs. And the new TI also checks your grammar...kinda. The post Trade Interceptor For Mac Review (September 2014 Update) appeared first on Trading Heroes.
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    OpenMarkets

  • MARKET UPDATE: GOOD START TO EARNINGS SEASON

    OpenMarkets
    24 Oct 2014 | 12:41 pm
    Next week we finish out the month and on the earnings front, 40% of the S&P 500 are already reporting – 70% beating expectations and 10% meet expectations.
  • Why Is Crude Oil Options Volume Growing?

    Alan Bannister
    23 Oct 2014 | 10:02 pm
      As recently as five years ago, if you wanted to trade Energy options you had little choice but to go to a voice or futures broker who would then execute on the NYMEX trading floor, or pit, in New York. But during 2014, a revolution in options trading has led to more than 70 percent of the WTI options market trading electronically on CME Group’s Globex matching engine. The growth of electronic options trading enables more transactions to take place as buyers and sellers find it easier to execute. Electronic options trading also appears to be supplementing, rather than replacing,…
  • MARKET UPDATE: AFTERSHOCK

    OpenMarkets
    22 Oct 2014 | 2:02 pm
    A lot of the action we’ve seen in bonds and stock with price and volatility have been aftershocks from the large market move we saw last week.  Jack urges investors to keep a close eye on earnings forecasts and deflation in the commodities sector.
  • Lifting the Veil on China’s State Capitalism: Q&A with Joe Zhang

    OpenMarkets
    20 Oct 2014 | 7:30 pm
    When China built the world’s second-largest economy, it was not just an economic miracle but a political one. It did so by re-writing the rulebook on capitalism and placing the ruling Communist Party at the center of this remarkable transformation. A unique model of state-capitalism was born with the Party at the head of an elaborate apparatus of political control over vast tracts of the economy.  While flagship state-owned enterprises (SOEs) were listed in New York or London, its top executives were still appointed by and answerable to the Party in Beijing. But now as growth slows, this…
  • MONDAY OUTLOOK: ENERGY MARKETS SEE VOLATILITY

    OpenMarkets
    20 Oct 2014 | 3:28 pm
    In the midst of last week’s high volatility in equity index markets, it might have been easy to miss that energy markets, particularly crude oil, have seen a lot of volatility of their own lately.  Last Tuesday marked the highest single electronic volume day for Crude Oil options as implied volatility spiked to 35 percent.  Libyan exports increasing, a sluggish European economy, stock markets declining and no sign of OPEC cutting production have contributed to the recent activity.   But as Alan Bannister will write later this week, the increased use of electronic options in crude…
 
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    eWallstreeter

  • Economist Sees Slow, Solid Gains for Stocks

    24 Oct 2014 | 8:05 pm
    Applied Global Macro Research’s Carsten Valgreen, who tracks the market with data that track the broad economy, sees stocks rising 5\% to 8\% annually over next three years.
  • The problem with procyclical inflation

    24 Oct 2014 | 6:41 pm
    Here’s Charles Evans in the WSJ: “We’ve averaged well under that 2\% mark for the past six-and-a-half years,” Mr. Evans said. “With a symmetric inflation target, one could imagine moderately above-target inflation for a limited time as simply the flip side of our recent inflation experience–and hardly an event that would impose great costs on […]
  • Hyperventilation Charade: EU Demands Another €2.1 Billion from UK, "We Won't Pay," Says Furious Cameron

    24 Oct 2014 | 12:54 pm
    Things are about to get more interesting in the EU as a review of budget procedures shows the UK, Greece, and Italy owe more money, but Germany and France will get money back.Curiously, this came about following a review of non-profit organizations from churches and universities to trade unions, charities and sports clubs. The time period is 2002-2009.Cameron's Obvious BluffUK prime minister David Cameron is already battling French President Francois Hollande abroad, and UKIP at home.Thus, Camer
  • New Wealth Inequality Paper Confirms: Saving in Decline for the 90\%

    24 Oct 2014 | 12:30 pm
    A new paper on wealth inequality from economists Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman – who have written frequently on the subject – was released earlier this month. This paper is far better than previous attempts to measure inequality. It includes pensions and other sources of wealth not taxed by the IRS – a shortcoming for which I have previously criticized measurements of inequality. One of the most interesting findings in the paper was the finding that the saving rate had fallen extremely
  • More Than One Perspective

    24 Oct 2014 | 12:22 pm
    (Don Boudreaux) Here’s another letter to my new correspondent from New Jersey: Dear Mr. Sloan: I appreciate your correspondence.  Thank you for it. You ask if I agree that, because successful entrepreneurs “such as [Jeff] Bezos … benefit disproportionately” from government-supplied infrastructure, these entrepreneurs should be taxed at rates higher than those levied on “regular people.” I [...]
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    richardblundell.net

  • Employee engagement: where even the strongest brands like Virgin get it wrong

    Richard
    18 Oct 2014 | 9:20 pm
    In today's world of commoditised products, the human service element that provides the customer's emotional connection to a brand, has to be part of the whole package. Not ignored by the marketing team who just focus on brand assets and messaging, and not subject to additional payment.
  • Will the market price of data insight fall? The supply-demand economics of personal data

    Richard
    9 Jun 2014 | 4:09 am
    The commercial successes of the information era are those companies like Google and Facebook who have managed to monetise consumer’s personal information. These companies have not only benefited from the amount of personal data that is now available, they’ve also encouraged consumers to share more of it. Will there come a time however when the […]
  • Apple – the luxury goods company

    Richard
    31 May 2014 | 12:29 am
    Apple’s $3.2bn purchase of Dr Dre’s Beats Music could signal the start of a new strategy for Apple – the shift from a consumer electronics company, to a house of luxury brands Why buy Beats? Most of the noise in the media this week suggested that Apple had bought Beats for its music streaming service. […]
  • Retail metrics for a multi-channel world

    Richard
    12 May 2014 | 2:10 am
    We used to know what to look for when assessing the performance of a retail business: Like for like sales growth (i.e. excluding effect of opening extra selling space) Sales per square metre (or foot) of selling space Stock turns (annual value of stock sold (COGS) divided by value of stock held at a point […]
  • AO World shows a tech and retail stock bubble is forming

    Richard
    1 Mar 2014 | 11:29 pm
    AO World (Appliances Online) may be an online only retailer, but there isn't enough growth to justify a 163x price earnings multiple.
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    The Last Embassy

  • ACA/Obamacare: Same Zebra with the Same Stripes?

    W.E. Heasley
    24 Oct 2014 | 4:42 am
    ‘If there is one thing Republicans and Democrats agree on it’s this: Obamacare represents a radical change in the US health care system. Soon after its passage, some on the left declared that we had created a right to health care for the first time in our history. Some on the right predicted death panels and a march toward socialized medicine. But what if they are all wrong? Is it
  • ACA/Obamacare: Cancellations and Confusion in Colorado

    W.E. Heasley
    22 Oct 2014 | 2:02 am
    “DENVER—The Colorado Division of Insurance announced Friday a surge in health-care policy cancellations in the wake of Obamacare, just what Democratic candidates in high-profile races didn’t need less than three weeks before Election Day. In a letter to state Senate Republicans, Colorado insurance commissioner Marguerite Salazar said that more than 22,000 Coloradans received cancellation
  • ACA/Obamacare: The Affordable Care Act and the New Economics of Part-Time Work by Casey Mulligan

    W.E. Heasley
    14 Oct 2014 | 8:24 am
    “Starting this year, the United States’ working population will face three major employment disincentives resulting from the very benefits the Affordable Care Act (ACA) provides: (1) an explicit tax on full-time work, (2) an implicit tax on full-time work for those who are ineligible for the ACA’s health insurance subsidies, and (3) an implicit tax that links the amount of available subsidies
  • ACA/Obamacare: Covered California’s No-Bid Contracts

    W.E. Heasley
    14 Oct 2014 | 2:11 am
    “California's health insurance exchange has awarded $184 million in contracts without the competitive bidding and oversight that is standard practice across state government, including deals that sent millions of dollars to a firm whose employees have long-standing ties to the agency's executive director. Covered California's no-bid contracts were for a variety of services, ranging from
  • ACA/Obamacare: Schemes Tend to be Complicated and to Become More Complicate as Time Passes

    W.E. Heasley
    11 Oct 2014 | 2:42 am
    Assume for a moment you are one of the many millions that have already procured an on-exchange health insurance policy through Healthcare.gov. Yes, assume for a moment you were one of the persistent people that had the patience to pass through seventy six web-based pages of data collection on a highly glitch prone web site and acquired a health insurance policy. One would assume you weathered
 
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    Columbia Business School: Ideas At Work RSS

  • Low Rates, Big Spending?

    15 Oct 2014 | 10:37 am
    Six years after the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve and other central banks are still looking for answers to whether the unconventional monetary policies adopted following the crisis — including lowered interest rates — have been effective in helping American households and the larger economy. The persistence of so many debt-burdened households, widespread unemployment, and relatively low economic growth has only increased the debate among economists and policymakers.
  • Do Rate Cuts Matter?

    9 Oct 2014 | 10:15 am
    New research takes on the question of how much monetary policy affects the economy.
  • Converging on Startup Success

    7 Oct 2014 | 7:07 am
    In conversation, Damon Phillips and Evan Rawley discuss why entrepreneurship resists easy study and how their research is tackling some of the biggest questions in the field.
  • In Mobile Marketing, the Value Is in the Journey, Not the Destination

    24 Sep 2014 | 11:37 am
    New research in location-based mobile marketing shows it’s not who you know or where you’re going that matters, but how you get there.
  • How Do Credit Default Swaps Affect Bond Prices?

    24 Sep 2014 | 11:33 am
    Credit default swaps may lower a firm’s borrowing costs under certain conditions, new research shows.
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    FTMDaily.com

  • Market Barometer Alert – 10/24/14

    Jerry Robinson
    24 Oct 2014 | 2:13 pm
    Our Market Barometer is flashing an important alert. Investors, here’s what to do now… [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • Precious Metals Market Update – 10/23/14

    Tom Cloud
    23 Oct 2014 | 11:28 am
    Student pro-democracy uprising in Hong Kong is positive for gold prices. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • Money, Marriage, and Financial Security

    Jerry Robinson
    21 Oct 2014 | 11:15 am
    On this episode, Jerry and Jennifer Robinson discuss how you can have financial peace in your marriage. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • Making Sense of the Recent Market Turbulence

    Jay Peroni
    18 Oct 2014 | 6:00 am
    Jay Peroni, CFP, discusses how to deal with wild stock market swings and explains his unique strategy to invest in the nation of Israel. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • Precious Metals Market Update – 10/15/14

    Tom Cloud
    15 Oct 2014 | 11:53 am
    Precious metals have topped the stock market so far this year. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
 
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    Exchange Rates UK - Currency News

  • Pound to Euro Forecast Today: GBP/EUR Conversion Rejects Resistance

    Tom Trevorrow
    24 Oct 2014 | 9:00 am
    The Pound to Euro exchange rate climbed today as Sterling suffered yet another day of losses. We take a look at the likely direction the GBP EUR is forecast to take. The Pound Sterling (GBP) fell against the majority of the major currencies including the Euro (EUR) on Thursday as another set of negative figures further weighed on price... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Will GBP/USD Fall Further? Latest Forecast for Pound vs Dollar & 3 Reasons Why

    Tony Redondo
    24 Oct 2014 | 8:30 am
    The Pound to dollar pairing looks to remain under pressure. We analyse the latest GBP USD exchange rate near-term and long-term forecasts and provide conversions for today. What's in store for the British Pound to Dollar exchange rate GBP/USD) in the short-term and why is it falling from the best rates seen back in July 2014? First,... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Euro vs GBP, Rupee & USD Rates Today: EUR Pressured on ECB Stress Test

    Colin Lawrence
    24 Oct 2014 | 8:30 am
    The Euro (EUR) exchange rate experienced downward pressure vs the Pound (GBP), Indian Rupee (INR) and US Dollar (USD) today ahead of the publication of the ECB's stress test results. Friday saw the Euro to Pound exchange rate (EUR/GBP) trend lower, and the single currency also traded within a very tight range against the US Dollar. The... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Pound FX Rate: Today's GBP/USD & GBP/EUR Conversion Levels Gain on UK GDP

    Adam Solomon
    24 Oct 2014 | 4:30 am
    The Pound (GBP) exchange rate declined vs US Dollar on Thursday to test support in the 1.60 USD region. The British currency also slipped against the Euro (EUR). The Pound Sterling exchange rate also came under additional selling versus the majority of 16 most actively traded currencies following another damaging report on the UK economy.... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Foreign Exchange Rates Today - Pound Sterling to Swedish Krona, Rand, Norwegian Krone & Danish Krone Rates & Predictions

    Colin Lawrence
    23 Oct 2014 | 8:30 am
    Today's foreign exchange rate forecasts for Pound Sterling (GBP) to Rand (ZAR), Swedish Krona (SEK), Norwegian Krone (NOK) and the Danish Krone (DKK) conversions today. Before we discuss these currencies, here are the latest conversion rates: The Pound to Yen exchange rate today is converting +0.84 per cent higher at 173.36424... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
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    BusinessClimate.com Blog

  • Placemaking: Investing to Draw and Keep Talent

    Bill McMeekin
    22 Oct 2014 | 12:51 pm
    Livability and talent recruitment have become the conjoined twins of economic development. If you want to have a puncher’s chance of drawing talent to your community, you need to encourage creation of the environment that appeals to them. This  conscious effort at placemaking  is both a talent recruitment and business recruitment strategy. Quality of place attributes are integral to attracting and keeping talent, and a deep pool of talent will be a key selling point for bringing new investment to a community. And it is not the sole province of large cities with developed urban cores…
  • Back to the Burbs: More Millennials Settling Outside Cities

    Emily McMackin
    17 Oct 2014 | 6:00 am
    Cities like San Francisco, Boston, New York, Chicago and D.C., may be known for attracting Millennials, but it’s the smaller towns outside of the largest cities that are seeing the fastest growth among young professionals, according to a study published on NewGeography by economist Joel Kotkin. Between 2010 and 2013, the number of 20- to 29-year-olds in the U.S. rose by 4 percent, but the percentage of residents in this demographic living in core cities grew by only 3.2 percent, the study noted. Why are cities losing 20-somethings, while suburbs and smaller towns are gaining them?
  • Price of Productivity: Manufacturing Wages Spike in Industrial States

    Emily McMackin
    10 Oct 2014 | 6:36 am
    Manufacturing is becoming more lucrative than ever before, especially for workers in industrial states. As unemployment rates fall and shortages for niche technical skills rise, companies are increasingly shelling out more to money attract and retain workers, a new Wall Street Journal report notes. In Texas, for example, wages for all types of production workers in factories grew an average of 6.3 percent from the year before, spurred in part by the energy boom there. Other states where manufacturing wage growth has spiked include Washington, Oregon, Indiana and Michigan – all states driven…
  • Gown Helps Town: Universities and Economic Development

    Bill McMeekin
    8 Oct 2014 | 3:30 am
    A winning formula for a desirable place to live includes a major university. That’s no secret. Take a look at the upper echelon’s of Livability.com’s Top 100 Best Places to Live for proof. An overwhelming majority of communities at the top of the ranking have a major university in their backyard, including No. 1 Madison, home of the flagship campus of the University of Wisconsin. If universities and livability make good companions, so to do universities and economic development. It must be true because there’s even an association to promote such working relationships…
  • Rising Star: Secrets Behind the Red-Hot Nashville Economy

    Emily McMackin
    2 Oct 2014 | 6:00 am
    Nashville has been making plenty of national and international news over few past years for having one of the nation’s strongest economies, fastest growing job markets and most coveted atmospheres for culture and quality of life. The city continues to capture these headlines because it has a remarkable story to tell — one that is still being written, according to Pulitzer Prize-winning historian and former Newsweek editor Jon Meacham who delivered the keynote address at the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce’s annual Partnership 2020 meeting on Oct. 1. “This is a golden…
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    Latest blog entries

  • Don't Fear the Robots: Automation is a Good Thing

    19 Oct 2014 | 2:57 pm
    Uncreative minds are at it again, riding that ancient saw telling us innovation will put us all permanently out of a job. Admittedly, automation and innovation will eliminate certain jobs, and at times it can appear hopeless, but the computer revolution is but the fart of a gnat when compared to the industrial revolution. We've weathered far more drastic revolutions of labor and capital in the past, for the better, and this time isn't different. In the 1700's, a group of people called Luddites, decided that the power loom was the very end of their livelihood, and that the best course of…
  • Ebola Coming to Europe Next

    23 Sep 2014 | 7:00 pm
    Even as I write, a ship is steaming directly to Amsterdam from the hot zone of the worst Ebola epidemic of all time. It's an ordinary cargo ship, and in a week or two, its crew will be downing beers and visiting the local talent of one of Europe's biggest port cities. The worst part is, it's not the only one. A flotilla of cargo ships leave from Europe each month to visit a variety of West African ports. The last of these ports, terrifyingly, are in each of the Ebola-stricken countries. As if it were perfectly intentional, these ships return straight away to Hamburg or Amsterdam for more…
  • Vladmir Putin: King of the Trashtalkers

    20 Sep 2014 | 2:35 pm
    I'm pretty down on government officials, elected or otherwise, I make no secret of it. But, I do love to watch a good game, and I can appreciate a master when I see one. While Vladimir Putin is a despot extraordinaire, he is awfully good at what he does. Truth be told, Michael Jordan wasn't paid millions in sponsorships and salary because he could put a ball through a net. He was paid his megamillions because he was fun to watch. If he put people to sleep while playing, no one would know his name. It was his miraculous dunks, his whirling fakeouts and electrifying play that made him a star.
  • Just Wars are Easy to Explain

    7 Sep 2014 | 6:58 pm
    A just war, or a morally justifiable war, should look like a morally (and legally) justifiable killing. The reasoning behind a just war should be quick to explain, with an obvious motive like self defense. It should be nearly impossible to find fault with a just war. By comparison, the longwinded articles that I'm reading on the Wall Street Journal reference Neville Chamberlain, Henry Kissinger, soft power, appeasement and isolationism while trying, and trying hard, to get people to sign the dotted line for another war. It got me to wondering: because the pro-war articles are long, is that…
  • The Ebola Outbreak is Airborne

    4 Sep 2014 | 5:02 pm
    The official party line, offered by the World Health Organization, is that the Ebola virus spreading across Africa (and likely other parts of the world), is that it is spread by "direct contact" with infected body fluids. "Infection occurs from direct contact through broken skin or mucous membranes with the blood, or other bodily fluids or secretions (stool, urine, saliva, semen) of infected people. Infection can also occur if broken skin or mucous membranes of a healthy person come into contact with environments that have become contaminated with an Ebola patient’s infectious fluids such…
 
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    FT Alphaville

  • When will the SNB end FX intervention and start raising rates?

    Matthew C Klein
    24 Oct 2014 | 11:36 am
    According to Goldman, the answer is sooner than the market thinks. A new note argues that the Swiss franc is already overvalued against the euro, which should give the Swiss National Bank cover to raise rates in response to a vibrant domestic economy and an overheating housing market. Thanks to a history of low inflation, institutional stability, and (until recently) a long tradition of banking secrecy, money tends to flow into Switzerland when people are worried, and it flows out when investors are looking to take more risk. Between the 2007 low and the peak in the summer of 2011, the…
  • Now showing: last ever episode of Barroso TV

    Paul Murphy
    24 Oct 2014 | 8:36 am
    Catch it now: Continue reading: Now showing: last ever episode of Barroso TV
  • The case for quotas in the British judiciary

    Guest writer
    24 Oct 2014 | 8:25 am
    This guest post is from Jessica Learmond-Criqui, a founder and partner in specialist employment law boutique Learmond Criqui Sokel. There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. While the origination of this phrase is unclear and ranges from Benjamin Disraeli to Arthur James Balfour, 1st Earl of Balfour, there is nothing false about the Council of Europe’s recent figures which demonstrate that the UK courts have fewer female judges than almost anywhere in Europe.Continue reading: The case for quotas in the British judiciary
  • For some European banks, Monday can’t come soon enough

    FT Alphaville
    24 Oct 2014 | 5:16 am
    Some perspective amidst the angst: Think main takeaway from this weekend's AQR / stress test data dump-fest is that it's gonna be over and people can get on with their lives.— Five Minute Macro (@5_min_macro) October 24, 2014 And proving perspective and angst aren’t mutually exclusive, some words from Alberto Gallo of RBS (our emphasis):Continue reading: For some European banks, Monday can’t come soon enough
  • Markets Live: Friday, 24th October, 2014

    Paul Murphy
    24 Oct 2014 | 3:01 am
    Live markets commentary from FT.com Continue reading: Markets Live: Friday, 24th October, 2014
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    Marginal REVOLUTION

  • China fact of the day

    Tyler Cowen
    24 Oct 2014 | 11:39 pm
    This year China is set to pay an interest bill of about $1.7tn, an amount not far short of India’s entire GDP last year ($1.87tn) but larger than the economies of South Korea, Mexico and Indonesia. That is from James Kynge at the FT, there is more here.
  • Always gamble on an empty stomach?

    Tyler Cowen
    24 Oct 2014 | 10:38 pm
    So says one new paper on PubMed, by de Ridder D, Kroese F, Adriaanse M, Evers C.: Three experimental studies examined the counterintuitive hypothesis that hunger improves strategic decision making, arguing that people in a hot state are better able to make favorable decisions involving uncertain outcomes. Studies 1 and 2 demonstrated that participants with more hunger or greater appetite made more advantageous choices in the Iowa Gambling Task compared to sated participants or participants with a smaller appetite. Study 3 revealed that hungry participants were better able to appreciate future…
  • Ebola markets in everything

    Tyler Cowen
    24 Oct 2014 | 10:31 am
    Ebola plush toys have been selling so fast in response to this year’s outbreak that a Connecticut manufacturer, Giantmicrobes Inc., can’t keep them in stock. The company, which was founded a decade ago, makes stuffed toys based on the appearance of microbes like Ebola, Chicken pox, bed bugs, and even non-harmful microscopic organisms things like brain and red blood cells. The items are meant to be educational tools for young children, Laura Sullivan, vice president of operations, told CBS News. There is more here, and for the pointer I thank James Lynch.  Via Tim Harford, here is…
  • Assorted links

    Tyler Cowen
    24 Oct 2014 | 8:49 am
    1. Where is the missing right of center media? 2. There is no great stagnation (juvenile, skip it). 3. Unemployment and the minimum wage in China. 4. Do hedge funds get there first? 5. Did Thor Heyerdahl have a point after all? 6. Why not make your car a cathedral? 7. Ferns.
  • Digital Non-Cash

    Alex Tabarrok
    24 Oct 2014 | 4:29 am
    In the United States we are using advanced technology like fingerprint scans to pay for goods. In Venezuela they are using advanced technology like fingerprint scans to ration goods. Here is the WSJ: Amid worsening shortages, Venezuela recently reached a milestone of dubious distinction: It has joined the ranks of North Korea and Cuba in rationing food for its citizens. …Under the system in place here, basic price-controlled items—including milk, rice, coffee, toothpaste, chicken and detergent—are rationed, with the fingerprinting machine used to ensure that a shopper doesn’t…
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    Zero Hedge

  • Top Ebola Scientists: Ebola More Likely to be Spread by Aerosol In Cold, Dry Conditions than In Hot, Humid Africa

    George Washington
    24 Oct 2014 | 11:58 pm
    We've repeatedly warned that this strain of Ebola might be spread by aerosols. But there is a fascinating and terrifying wrinkle to this ... You might assume that hot, steamy places would be more likely to spread deadly germs than developed countries. But the opposite might be true. In 1995, scientists from the US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID) reported in the International Journal of Experimental Pathology: We also demonstrated aerosol transmission of Ebola virus at lower temperature and humidity than that normally present in sub-Saharan Africa. Ebola…
  • The Pope: “Corruption Is a Greater Evil than Sin”

    George Washington
    24 Oct 2014 | 7:48 pm
    Modern interpretation of Christ driving the money changers from the temple by Anthony Freda/Daniel Zollinger   Preface: If you are an atheist (or adherent of another faith) and believe that the Catholic faith is crazy, you are obviously entitled to your belief.  But please remember that very few Americans are atheists … and the majority don’t trust atheists.  More importantly, it's wise to work with allies on core issues, such as fighting corruption ... even if you would normally disagree with them.  In this case, the Pope just may speak for a lot of…
  • The American Dream Is Still Possible, Just Not In The US

    Tyler Durden
    24 Oct 2014 | 7:08 pm
    Submitted by Ron Holland via The Daily Bell, Although there are no firm statistics on the number of Americans living outside the US, the US State Department estimates that somewhere between 3 and 6 million Americans now live offshore. I think this is a low estimate and the number is clearly growing. I now live in Canada but often travel back to the United States. Driving through Customs near Buffalo is usually not a big ordeal but it does involve a time-wasting delay much like visiting the post office or any other US government bureaucracy. But governments should police their borders, as this…
  • Putin Warns Of Risk Of Major Conflict, Says Dollar Losing Reserve Currency Status

    Tyler Durden
    24 Oct 2014 | 6:36 pm
    Having been relatively quiet for a while, Russia's leader Vladimir, speaking in Sochi (following meetings with Middle East crown princes who confirmed Russia as a key partner - "isolated"?), has unleashed his most aggressive statements with regard the failing world order: *PUTIN SAYS U.S. DOLLAR LOSING TRUST AS RESERVE CURRENCY *PUTIN: WORLD WITHOUT RULES IS POSSIBILITY; ANARCHY GROWING Adding that the risk of major conflicts involving major countries is growing, as well as the risk of arms control treaties being violated, Putin exclaimed that the US-led unipolar world is like a dictatorship…
  • The Farce Of European Stocks (In 1 Simple Chart)

    Tyler Durden
    24 Oct 2014 | 6:12 pm
    If, as the smart chaps on financial media continuously remind hungry investors, "earnings are the mothers milk of stock market rallies" then WTF is going on in the chart below... (Hint: "perenially too optimistic")     As ValueWalk's Michael Ide notes, European equities had their 42nd straight month of earnings downgrades in September, with an average of 100 downgrades per working day since March 2011, says a recent report from UBS. That’s not quite as bad as Japan’s 51-month downgrade streak in the early nineties, and fortunately there are signs that estimates could finally…
 
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    nextnewdeal.net

  • Threat of Ebola Highlights Problems in the U.S. Public Health System

    rgoldfarb
    15 Oct 2014 | 12:57 pm
    It is likely that Ebola will be contained in the United States, but errors in Texas show we have room for improvement in responding to public health emergencies. On October 15, the second case of Ebola transmitted in the United States was confirmed in Texas between patient Thomas Eric Duncan and a health worker. Even more frightening, perhaps, is the sequence of events leading up to the transmission, and the many questions it generates about the preparedness of the U.S. in responding to public health emergencies. Six days after Duncan arrived in the United States  – having passed a…
  • Obama Administration Defends Amazon’s Low Pay – Again

    rgoldfarb
    9 Oct 2014 | 4:49 am
    It's hard for workers to trust the President's support for policies that help them when the administration sides with Amazon at the Supreme Court. Amazon’s business model is based on quick easy buying and low prices. One way it does that is to force its warehouse workers to wait a long time to leave work, without getting paid. And that’s just fine with the Obama administration, which continues to have a blind spot when it comes to decent pay and working conditions at Amazon. Yesterday the Supreme Court heard a case (Integrity Staffing Solutions v. Busk) in which workers are suing the temp…
  • The Federal Reserve Won't Save the Economy for All

    rgoldfarb
    9 Oct 2014 | 4:42 am
    Deepening political participation in and beyond voting is key to achieving policies that raise outcomes for the working class. Inflation hawks have been the talk of the town in elite economic circles in recent weeks. More liberal-leaning minds critique their (frankly) unsubstantiated concerns that the Federal Reserve is driving the U.S. economy toward high levels of inflation. Hawks are concerned that high levels of inflation due to expansionary monetary policy will lead to negative economic outcomes for major firms and, in turn, the rest of the American public. Instead of worrying about…
  • At NextGen IL Conference, Young People Set the Agenda for Their State

    rgoldfarb
    7 Oct 2014 | 4:05 am
    At the NextGen Illinois conference, Campus Network leaders found a policy space shaped entirely by young people. Last Saturday, the Midwest Regional Team of the Roosevelt Institute | Campus Network met in Chicago to attend the NextGen Illinois conference, the culmination of months of discussion, caucuses, and ideas from around Illinois. NextGen IL, an initiative led by the Campus Network and Young Invicibles, is working to bring young adults in Illinois together to shape a youth policy agenda for Illinois. What set NextGen apart from so many other conferences was that its content, agenda, and…
  • The Big Mistake in President Obama’s Economic Pivot: Overlooking the Grassroots

    tprice
    3 Oct 2014 | 11:40 am
    The president spoke about federal legislation to promote economic opportunity, but real progress is happening at the local level. Yesterday, President Obama traveled to Northwestern University to give a speech on the new American economy. The speech was touted as a major pivot, both rhetorical and political, from a heavily international focus to a domestic one. Obama’s speech highlighted some of the successes of his administration, pointing to a lowered unemployment rate, a higher rate of insured individuals through Obamacare, and an increase in manufacturing jobs since the 2008 financial…
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    Jared Bernstein | On the Economy

  • Slides from this AM’s talk to social work educators

    Jared Bernstein
    24 Oct 2014 | 9:00 am
    I told the (totally awesome) audience at the Tampa, FL meeting of the Council on Social Work Education that I’d post my presentation ASAP. Here it is. A few clarifications. YOYO=you’re on your own WITT=we’re in this together In case the video doesn’t work, go here and start at 1:40. And h/t to Chuck Sheketoff for pointing me towards this. The part where I mention Gov. Brownback in passing is about this issue (though this presentation is much more fun (albeit a bit racy in places)–“Now why would we need a tractor dancer on this farm?”).
  • It takes more than growth to reach the middle class.

    Jared Bernstein
    23 Oct 2014 | 9:46 am
    In today’s episode, we explore the concept of growth as necessary but not sufficient: over at PostEverything.
  • Global growth, the $, (under-priced) oil and their impact on US growth rates.

    Jared Bernstein
    22 Oct 2014 | 4:55 am
    Those stalwart number crunching research economists at Goldman Sachs (i.e., not the traders) have a really interesting graph out this AM that packs in a ton of info on current growth pluses and negatives. The figure uses the Federal Reserve’s macro model (which is actually publically available now…and, yes, I will fire it up myself once I have the time to figure out its bells/whistles) to decompose a set of factors nudging real GDP growth this way and that, including slower global growth, the stronger dollar—they’re the larger negatives—and lower oil prices and interest rates…
  • Larry Mishel and the wage message: “Don’t give up the hole!”

    Jared Bernstein
    21 Oct 2014 | 6:25 am
    Larry Mishel puts not too fine a point on it as you see in this WSJ review of his talk at the Boston Fed inequality conference. Some of those same points show up in this American Prospect piece I did on the topic a few weeks ago. Larry’s comments are much in the spirit of the “don’t give up the hole” theme I’ve been trying to develop in recent weeks, where the hole is wage growth (it’s a golfing expression: don’t be so finessed on the green that you forget that the goal is to sink the putt). The first thing to know is that hourly wages, long a focus at EPI, are the building…
  • More on the Fed, QE, and the full employment unemployment rate.

    Jared Bernstein
    20 Oct 2014 | 2:46 pm
    Just a quick follow up on this morning’s meanderings about the Fed, QE (quantitative easing, or the Fed’s asset purchasing program, currently winding down), inequality, and that sort of stuff. I mentioned the President of Boston Fed, Eric Rosengren, and here he is again saying very cool things in my hometown paper. For example, this is much the same point I made this AM about how you’d want to think about the net impact of QE: There’s no disputing the fact that asset prices have gone up as a result of what we’re doing,” Rosengren acknowledged, and…
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    Freakonomics

  • Do Not Read This Unless You Have Already Listened to “Tell Me Something I Don’t Know”

    Stephen J. Dubner
    24 Oct 2014 | 1:42 pm
    Malcolm Gladwell at the debut of “Tell Me Something I Don’t Know.” (Photo: Janice Yi) Our latest podcast is called “Tell Me Something I Don’t Know.” It’s the debut of a live game show with audience contestants and celebrity judges, including Malcolm Gladwell. In the final round, the judges team up with contestants to play for the grand prize. If you’ve already listened, you’ll know that Malcolm and his partner were asked to tell us all something we don’t know about bread, and Malcolm came up with an intriguing fact that, upon a quick…
  • Tell Me Something I Don’t Know: A New Freakonomics Radio Podcast

    Stephen J. Dubner
    23 Oct 2014 | 7:00 am
    A few years ago, I developed a habit. If the person sitting next to me on an airplane seemed like they wanted to have a conversation, I’d ask them a bit about themselves — let’s say they worked in civil engineering — and I’d say “Tell me something I don’t know about civil engineering.” The habit became an addiction. I loved learning stuff I didn’t know, and most people loved to talk about their passions, work-related or otherwise. Soon this addiction fueled a dream: I imagined turning it into some kind of a live game show/talk show. It…
  • Tell Me Something I Don’t Know Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    23 Oct 2014 | 7:00 am
    This is a transcript of the Freakonomics Radio podcast “Tell Me Something I Don’t Know” Stephen J. DUBNER:Hey, podcast listeners. The new episode you’re about to hear is called “Tell Me Something I Don’t Know.” It’s a live recording of a new game show that we just invented. As you’ll hear, it was a lot of fun in person. The hope, of course, as that you’ll have fun listening to it as a podcast. Whatever the case, do me a favor and let us know what you think. You can tweet us @Freakonomics, leave a comment on our Facebook page or at Freakonomics.com, or shoot us an…
  • How Can Tiny Norway Afford to Buy So Many Teslas? Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    16 Oct 2014 | 7:00 am
    This is a transcript of the Freakonomics Radio podcast “How Can Tiny Norway Afford to Buy So Many Teslas?” [MUSIC: “Ja, vi elsker dette landet” (Norwegian National Anthem)] Stephen J. DUBNER: As you likely know, the American automobile company Tesla makes some of the most desirable–and expensive–electric cars in the world. The company is currently valued at roughly $31 billion. Compare that to the $55 billion market cap of the Ford Motor Company.Tesla, however, last year sold fewer than 25,000 cars while Ford sells more than 6 million vehicles a year, or roughly 240…
  • How Can Tiny Norway Afford to Buy So Many Teslas? A New Freakonomics Radio Podcast

    Greg Rosalsky
    16 Oct 2014 | 7:00 am
    (Photo: Tesla Motors) Until recently, tiny Norway (population 5 million) has been the second largest market for Teslas (after the U.S.). Earlier this year, Tesla’s Model S became the best-selling car in the country ever for a one-month period. Not bad for a luxury electric vehicle whose base price in Norway is over $100,000. What’s behind this Tesla boom? That’s the question we try to answer in this episode of Freakonomics Radio. It’s called “How Can Tiny Norway Afford to Buy So Many Teslas?” (You can download/subscribe at iTunes, get the RSS feed, or listen…
 
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    interfluidity

  • Econometrics, open science, and cryptocurrency

    Steve Randy Waldman
    17 Oct 2014 | 7:29 am
    Mark Thoma wrote the wisest two paragraphs you will read about econometrics and empirical statistical research in general: You are testing a theory you came up with, but the data are uncooperative and say you are wrong. But instead of accepting that, you tell yourself "My theory is right, I just haven't found the right econometric specification yet. I need to add variables, remove variables, take a log, add an interaction, square a term, do a different correction for misspecification, try a different sample period, etc., etc., etc." Then, after finally digging out that one…
  • Scale, progressivity, and socioeconomic cohesion

    Steve Randy Waldman
    11 Oct 2014 | 6:33 am
    Today seems to be the day to talk about whether those of us concerned with poverty and inequality should focus on progressive taxation. Edward D. Kleinbard in the New York Times and Cathie Jo Martin and Alexander Hertel-Fernandez at Vox argue that focusing on progressivity can be counterproductive. Jared Bernstein, Matt Bruenig, and Mike Konczal offer responses offer responses that examine what “progressivity” really means and offer support for taxing the rich more heavily than the poor. This is an intramural fight. All of these writers presume a shared goal of reducing inequality…
  • Links: UBI and hard money

    Steve Randy Waldman
    26 Sep 2014 | 6:33 am
    Max Sawicky offers a response to the post he inspired on the political economy of a universal basic income. See also a related post by Josh Mason, and a typically thoughtful thread by interfluidity‘s commenters. I’m going to use this post to make space for some links worth remembering, both on UBI and hard money (see two posts back). The selection will be arbitrary and eclectic with unforgivable omissions, things I happen to have encountered recently. Please feel encouraged to scold me for what I’ve missed in the comments. With UBI, I’m not including links to…
  • The political economy of a universal basic income.

    Steve Randy Waldman
    19 Sep 2014 | 6:35 am
    So you should read these two posts by Max Sawicky on proposals for a universal basic income, because you should read everything Max Sawicky writes. (Oh wait. Two more!) Sawicky is a guy I often agree with, but he is my mirror Spock on this issue. I think he is 180° wrong on almost every point. To Sawicky, the push for a universal basic income is a “utopian” diversion that both deflects and undermines political support for more achievable, tried and true, forms of social insurance. My argument against UBI is pragmatic and technical. In the context of genuine threats to the…
  • Hard money is not a mistake

    Steve Randy Waldman
    1 Sep 2014 | 5:23 pm
    Paul Krugman is wondering hard about why fear of inflation so haunts the wealthy and well-off. Like many people on the Keynes-o-monetarist side of the economic punditry, he is puzzled. After all, aren’t “rentiers” — wealthy debt holders — often also equity holders? Why doesn’t their interest in the equity appreciation that might come with a booming economy override the losses they might experience from their debt positions? Surely a genuinely rising tide would lift all boats? As Krugman points out, there is nothing very new in fear of inflation by the rich.
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    Credit Writedowns

  • Are we in a global financial crisis?

    Edward Harrison
    24 Oct 2014 | 3:13 am
    This is an abbreviated version of a post from 17 Oct’s Credit Writedowns Pro With financial markets tanking across the board, there is a whiff of panic and some people might be thinking that the next global financial crisis is already upon us. I don’t think this is the case. Certainly, the European sovereign debt crisis has entered round two but this can easily be overcome. Turbulence and a simmering crisis in Europe, yes. An acute crisis, no. More importantly, despite the recent global growth slowdown, the US and UK economies in particular are still beyond stall speed such that exogenous…
  • The German view of the Euro crisis

    Edward Harrison
    23 Oct 2014 | 9:33 am
    This is an abbreviated version of a post first published at Credit Writedowns Pro on 15 Oct. The Germans got into the eurozone out of a desire to increase European integration and to strengthen Europe as an economic area that rivalled the United States. Yet, now we are in a period where the Germans are being blamed for everything that’s going wrong with the Euro. I think the Germans do deserve some of this blame but not all of it and I want to briefly post why. Consider this an addendum to the other Edward’s piece that was posted just before this one, but from my own somewhat pro-German…
  • The roots of the Italian stagnation

    Guest Author
    22 Oct 2014 | 7:08 am
    This post first appeared at Vox in June By Paolo Manasse It’s currently very trendy in Italy to blame Angela Merkel, Mario Monti, and austerity measures for the current recession. This column argues that while the severity of the downturn is clearly a cyclical phenomenon, the inability of the country to grow out of it is the legacy of more than a decade of a lack of reforms in credit, product and labour markets. This lack of reform has suffocated innovation and productivity growth, resulting in wage dynamics that are completely decoupled from labour productivity and demand conditions. Italy…
  • Does The Secular Stagnation Theory Have Any Sort of Validity?

    Edward Hugh
    22 Oct 2014 | 4:58 am
    By Edward Hugh In a number of blog-posts (Paul Krugman’s Bicycling Problem, On Bubble Business Bound, The Expectations Fairy) I have examined some of the implications of the theory of secular stagnation. But I haven’t up to now argued why I think the hypothesis that Japan and some parts of Europe are suffering from some kind of secular stagnation could well be a valid one. Strangely, while I would suggest the most obviously affected countries are those mentioned above, most of the debate has centered around the US economy. Since it is not at all clear that the US economy is actually…
  • The rise in periphery bond yields is sovereign debt crisis, round 2

    Edward Harrison
    16 Oct 2014 | 2:55 am
    I have long warned that the euro crisis was going to return. But recently the concern I voiced in posts here was more concrete i.e. that the renewed recession fears in Europe would force a decoupling between the periphery and the core in the Eurozone. This seems to be occurring. Today the FT wrote that: Greece’s long-term borrowing costs breached 8 per cent on Thursday – the highest since early February – as investors fretted over the possibility that upcoming elections could derail the country’s chances of a clean exit from its bailout. The Greek 10-year bond yield rose 81 basis…
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    Liberty Street Economics

  • At the N.Y. Fed: Macroeconomic Policy Mix in the Transatlantic Economy

    Blog Author
    24 Oct 2014 | 4:00 am
    Moreno Bertoldi, Philip R. Lane, Paolo Pesenti, and Valérie Rouxel-Laxton The reason why the macroeconomic policy mix has been different on the two sides of the Atlantic in recent years remains a hotly debated issue. Was it due to a different reading of the root causes of the global financial crisis and therefore of the type of policy response considered most appropriate? Or was it instead the result of incomplete economic and financial integration in the euro area and the absence of a solid backstop for sovereign and banking sector problems, factors that led the euro area—as put by…
  • Don’t Be Late! The Importance of Timely Settlement of Tri-Party Repo Contracts

    Blog Author
    20 Oct 2014 | 4:00 am
    Adam Copeland and Ira SeligTri-party repo is popular among securities dealers as a way to raise short-term funding. The tri-party repo settlement process has been improved, and continues to be improved, with the implementation of a set of recent reforms. Two main goals of these reforms are to sharply reduce the amount of liquidity needed to facilitate the settlement of tri-party repo contracts, and to increase the use of more resilient sources of liquidity (for example, term financing and committed credit) to ensure that settlement can occur in good and bad times. In this post, we detail how…
  • New York City’s Not-So-Outer Boroughs

    Blog Author
    17 Oct 2014 | 4:00 am
    Jason Bram Ever since the first census of the U.S. population was taken, back in 1790, New York City has been the nation’s largest city, and for most of this time by a factor of more than two. But how has the city—in particular, the city’s boundaries—evolved over time?     In the latter part of the 1800s, New York City comprised the island of Manhattan and a small but expanding portion of what is now the Bronx. It was only after the 1898 consolidation that the city became the five boroughs that delineate it today. Yet today, as then, Manhattan is widely considered…
  • How Do Liquidity Conditions Affect U.S. Bank Lending?

    Blog Author
    15 Oct 2014 | 4:00 am
    Ricardo Correa, Linda Goldberg, and Tara Rice The recent financial crisis underscored the importance of understanding how liquidity conditions for banks (or other financial institutions) influence the banks’ lending to domestic and foreign customers. Our recent research examines the domestic and international lending responses to liquidity risks across different types of large U.S. banks before, during, and after the global financial crisis. The analysis compares large global U.S. banks—that is, those that have offices in foreign countries and are able to move liquidity from affiliates…
  • Historical Echoes: “Burns Money” on What’s My Line?

    Blog Author
    10 Oct 2014 | 4:00 am
    Amy Farber In a May 2014 Historical Echoes post, Marja Vitti describes what happened to money too old to be left in circulation: it was incinerated by the Federal Reserve Banks until passage of the Clean Air Act of 1970, after which the money was shredded. Paper money incineration by a Federal Reserve Bank employee was the subject of a hilarious broadcast of the famous TV quiz show What’s My Line In this broadcast, which aired on June 12,  1960, Thomas Hull, in charge of burning the money for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, steps onto the set, writes his name on the…
 
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    The Incidental Economist

  • Healthcare Triage News: Green Coffee Extract Doesn’t Reduce Weight, and Travel Bans Won’t Stop Ebola

    Aaron Carroll
    24 Oct 2014 | 9:24 am
    Research fails to show that green coffee extract works. It also fails to show travel bans are a good idea for Ebola. This is Healthcare Triage News.   For those of you who came here for references of more information: Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, linear dose, crossover study to evaluate the efficacy and safety of a green coffee bean extract in overweight subjects (Retracted) Authors retract green coffee bean diet paper touted by Dr. Oz Green Coffee Bean Manufacturer Settles FTC Charges of Pushing its Product Based on Results of “Seriously Flawed” Weight-Loss Study…
  • Should the Arkansas Medicaid program cover a $239,000/year treatment?

    Austin Frakt
    24 Oct 2014 | 3:10 am
    Chris Conover says it should have the freedom not to do so: Last week, an advisory board recommended that Arkansas’s Medicaid program cover Kalydeco, a cystic fibrosis drug [which would cost the program] $239,000 per patient year.  [... B]ecause “ Arkansas appears to be the only state preventing patients who meet the eligibility criteria established by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration” the state is being sued on grounds that its policy violates a federal statute requiring state Medicaid programs to pay for all medically necessary treatments. [...] [P]art of the reason the…
  • AcademyHealth: International comparisons of access to care

    Aaron Carroll
    23 Oct 2014 | 6:19 am
    Whenever international comparisons are made on quality metrics, inevitably someone complains that the results are invalid because it’s impossible to standardize quality across different systems. Those people are not entirely wrong. It is hard to make sure that you are measuring the exact same thing in different countries. That’s why it’s important to use a variety of metrics, and to acknowledge the limitations in any study and any comparison. That said, it’s sometimes easier to standardize metrics of access. I talk about this over at the AcademyHealth blog in my latest post. Go read!
  • Hospital-Owned vs. Physician-Owned Physician Organizations

    Aaron Carroll
    23 Oct 2014 | 6:13 am
    JAMA is chock full of great papers this week. “Total Expenditures per Patient in Hospital-Owned and Physician-Owned Physician Organizations in California“: Importance  Hospitals are rapidly acquiring medical groups and physician practices. This consolidation may foster cooperation and thereby reduce expenditures, but also may lead to higher expenditures through greater use of hospital-based ambulatory services and through greater hospital pricing leverage against health insurers. Objective  To determine whether total expenditures per patient were higher in physician…
  • A pessimistic prediction about wellness programs

    Austin Frakt
    23 Oct 2014 | 3:00 am
    This analysis suggests a future for ‘‘wellness’’ initiatives: a great deal of negative wellness [basically, underwriting, cost shifting, or back-door risk-rating] in the form of crude insurance rate or hiring discrimination, diverse and visible but largely cosmetic wellness programs used as cheap recruitment and retention, or corporate public relations. There will be some scope for positive wellness [investment in health promotion] in the same high-skill or low-turnover firms that have incentive to train employees. Just as American employers routinely demand skills from employees…
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    LewRockwell

  • Canadian Terror Wave

    No Author
    24 Oct 2014 | 10:01 pm
     As warned, after multiple staged incidents used to ratchet up fear and paranoia in the build-up to US and its allies’ military intervention in Syria and Iraq, at least two live attacks have now been carried out in Canada – precisely as they were predicted.  The first attack involved a deadly hit-and-run that left one Canadian soldier dead. AP would report in its article, “Terrorist ideology blamed in Canada car attack,” that: A young convert to Islam who killed a Canadian soldier in a hit-and-run had been on the radar of federal investigators, who feared he had jihadist ambitions…
  • Did the US Produce Airborne Ebola

    Robert Wenzel
    24 Oct 2014 | 10:01 pm
    It has been my contention that the recent Ebola outbreak is likely the result of US military testing of Ebola gone awry.  SEE: THE PAPER TRAIL: The US Government Involvement in Developing Ebola as a BioWeapon Now more evidence has been brought to my attention of the alarming  nature of the Ebola testing going on by the US military. Apparently, the military has created an airborne version of Ebola and tested it on monkeys.\ A paper written by E. Johnson, N. Jaax, J. White, and P. Jahrling of US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Frederick, Maryland was published in…
  • What Are you Breathing?

    Edward Group
    24 Oct 2014 | 10:01 pm
    Air pollution is a term that likely conjures images of industrial smokestacks and billowing plumes rising into the atmosphere. Those are certainly examples of air pollution but the oft forgotten truth is that the worst air quality you experience every day is most likely to be located right in your living room. Trapped, stagnant air and poor ventilation combine to create a toxic cloud inside the home. Here’s 10 facts everyone should know about indoor air pollutants and how to protect themselves and their family from the potential health dangers. 1. IAQ is a Top 5 Health Risk The United…
  • The Great Father’s Toxic Relationships

    Jack Perry
    24 Oct 2014 | 10:01 pm
    Toxic relationships…we’ve all been there. But most of us have learned from them and start looking for the “red flags” before we commit. Not so with the Great Father. As everyone knows, the Great Father wrecked the car again over in Syria. He got drunk at the Arab Spring block party, met someone he got romantically interested in real fast, and plowed right into Bashir al-Assad’s house. The Great Father never learns—friends don’t let friends drive drunk. That’s why he was warned about trying to drive Syria after shotgunning a twelve pack of…
  • The Right To Discriminate

    Nicholas Freiling
    24 Oct 2014 | 10:01 pm
    Last weekend, city officials in Coeur d’Alene, Idaho ordered the owners of a local wedding chapel to conduct same-sex marriages or face jail time. One-hundred-and-eighty days of jail time, to be exact, plus a $1,000 fine for each day they continue to decline. The chapel’s owners, ordained ministers, are suing on the grounds of religious freedom, saying the mandate forces them to contradict their religious beliefs. But while the religious freedom perspective on this dispute is probably better for the chapel’s public relations, this issue is just as much economic as religious. Without…
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    Angry Bear

  • Chris Christie Says We Should Not Treat Ebola Patients, Because No One Wants Their Kids to Get Ebola, and Anyway We’re Trying to Develop an Ebola Vaccine.

    Beverly Mann
    24 Oct 2014 | 10:49 am
    Okay, here’s what Christie actually said: I’m tired of hearing about the minimum wage. I really am. I don’t think there’s a mother or father sitting around the kitchen table tonight in America saying, ‘You know, honey, if our son or daughter could just make a higher minimum wage, my God all of our dreams would be […]
  • Productivity, Recessions & New Levels of Productive Capacity

    Edward Lambert
    24 Oct 2014 | 9:38 am
    Noah Smith provoked a conversation here at Angry Bear by wondering what causes recessions. Recessions are not such a mystery when you see the interaction between effective demand and such things as productivity. The conversation took place in the comments section of a previous post on Productivity’s role as a cause of recession. The issue […]
  • Martin Wolf’s Warning

    Dan Crawford
    24 Oct 2014 | 1:33 am
    by Joseph Joyce Martin Wolf’s Warning It is time for the 2014 Globie—a (somewhat fictitious) prize I award once a year to a book that deserves recognition for its treatment of the consequences of globalization. (Previous winners can be found here.) The financial turmoil of the last week makes this year’s award-winner particularly appropriate: Martin […]
  • Both the rich and ordinary Americans misunderstand their economic interests

    Dan Crawford
    24 Oct 2014 | 1:28 am
    by Linda Beale Both the rich and ordinary Americans misunderstand their economic interests There is class warfare going on, right now, all across this country.  It’s highlighted by the election gimmicks and gambits of those on the right who claim to be supporting ordinary Americans but whose real intentions show in the results. And it […]
  • Open thread Oct. 24, 2014

    Dan Crawford
    24 Oct 2014 | 1:15 am
 
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    niesr.ac.uk

  • The real policy challenge - under-utilisation of migrants' skills

    HeatherRolfe
    30 Sep 2014 | 2:46 am
    Much has been made of Ed Miliband’s failure to deliver sections of his conference speech on the economy and on immigration. But he didn’t forget to repeat the policy first announced just before the party’s 2013 conference to require employers to recruit an apprentice for every non-EU migrant they employ:  ‘If you want to bring in a worker from outside the European Union, that’s OK, but you must provide apprenticeships to the next generation’
  • Real Devolution: The Power to Borrow - Reply

    MoniqueEbell
    23 Sep 2014 | 7:30 am
    In our recent paper on devolution we argue that real power requires granting UK regions the ability to borrow in addition to tax and spending powers. In a blog post, Tony Yates suggested that this would in fact create the same mess as the Euro zone.
  • Stubborn facts?

    JonathanPortes
    9 Sep 2014 | 1:57 pm
    Toby Young (Fulbright Lecture, 2014, reported by Laura McInery): Kids can't analyse or think critically without first learning facts
  • The crisis at Calais: no, the UK is not "El Dorado":

    JonathanPortes
    5 Sep 2014 | 2:32 am
    The scenes at Calais over the past few days raise the question of why Britain is the "favoured destination" for illegal/irregular entrants to the European Union.
  • The public sees international students as an asset and source of talent

    HeatherRolfe
    27 Aug 2014 | 1:44 am
    What do the public think about international students? Do they see them simply as generating revenue for universities or as longer term migrants who can bring new talent to the UK? New research by British Future shows that there is support for international students among the general public who both recognise the benefits they bring and believe we should make us of their skills and talent.
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    Bruegel - Latest Updates

  • Europe's fiscal wormhole

    23 Oct 2014 | 11:18 pm
    The International Monetary Fund now estimates a 30% risk of deflation in the eurozone, and growth figures within the monetary union continue to disappoint. But policymakers seem trapped in a cat’s cradle of economic, political, and legal constraints that is preventing effective action. The fulfillment of policy rules appears to be impossible without growth, but growth appears to be impossible without breaking the rules.The fulfillment of policy rules appears to be impossible without growth, but growth appears to be impossible without breaking the rules.German Finance…
  • Uber Economics: There is no such thing as bad publicity

    21 Oct 2014 | 1:22 am
    Last month we published a blog post examining the economics behind, and the challenges for, the Uber ridesharing company. We now want to consider how Uber might have been affected by opposition from vested interests – in Uber's case, taxi drivers – and by regulation to restrict Uber. We take into account major events involving the company, and use Germany as a case study. Uber arrived in Germany in February 2013. In April 2014 the first regulation imposing restrictions on its activity was passed, prohibiting the company from offering its services in Berlin. In June 2014 there was a…
  • The return of market volatility

    19 Oct 2014 | 11:18 pm
    What’s at stake: The size of the market gyrations this week took everybody by surprise. Several stories have been put forward to rationalize these movements, but the abruptness of the adjustment is puzzling and underlines that the degree of liquidity in these markets may have been overestimated. Last week wrap-upWe are definitely back in the “risk-on-risk-off” regime againSober Look writes that we are definitely back in the “risk-on-risk-off” regime again. In its Global Market overview, the FT notes this morning that high volatility will likely remain the story for now especially as…
  • Jean Tirole's legacy

    16 Oct 2014 | 12:09 am
    On October 13 the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for 2014 to the French economist Jean Tirole for his analysis of market power and regulation.  1 The numerous references to Laffont in the scientific background for the prize suggest that, were he still alive, he might have shared the prize with Tirole.Jean Tirole, along with his mentor and coauthor Jean-Jacques Laffont,1 was one of the main scholars who contributed to the systematic use of game theory and mechanism design in Industrial…
  • China seeking to cash in on Europe’s crises

    15 Oct 2014 | 11:15 pm
    Last Tuesday, I posted about the increasing investment of China in Russia, wondering whether and to what extent it could help Russia smooth the economic impact of European sanctions. But as shown by a recent  analysis of the Financial Times, China has been increasingly investing in Europe as well, focusing recently on crisis-hit countries.Chinese FDI to Europe has been very small until 2010. But since then it has been significantly increasing, reaching 27bn euro in 2012China has traditionally been a receiver of European FDI, which according to Deutsche Bank, accounted for 18% of total…
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    TaxVox

  • Why Tax Lawyers and Tax Economists Can’t Communicate

    Howard Gleckman
    23 Oct 2014 | 10:33 am
    Any close observer of the making of tax policy can see it: Lawyers and economists looking at the same issue through entirely different prisms. I’ve been fascinated by how their respective brains work, and why they have so much trouble communicating with one another. It turns out I am not alone. In a newly published paper in the William & Mary Policy Review, University of Oregon professor Roberta Mann explores why tax lawyers and economists often talk past one another, how their misunderstandings can profoundly affect policymaking, and what they can do to improve matters. Her title says…
  • Bertha and the French Professor: Lessons for Public Private Partnerships

    Tracy Gordon
    21 Oct 2014 | 9:34 am
    Jean Tirole is an influential, respected, and by all accounts gracious man who won this year’s Nobel Prize in economics. Bertha is a 7,000-ton tunnel boring machine that’s been stuck under Seattle for nine months—but is still tweeting—as state officials and a private contractor battle over who should pay to get her out. What do Prof. Tirole and Bertha have in common? They show the strengths and weaknesses of public private partnerships. P3s refer to all kinds of contractual arrangements, but the key feature is a transfer of risk from the public to the private sector. The idea is that…
  • A “Normal” Budget Isn’t Really Normal

    Donald Marron
    20 Oct 2014 | 7:39 am
    Treasury closed the financial books on fiscal 2014 last week. As my colleague Howard Gleckman noted, the top line figures all came in close to their 40-year averages. The $483 billion deficit was about 2.8 percent of gross domestic product, for example, slightly below the 3.2 percent average of the past four decades. Tax revenues clocked in at 17.5 percent of GDP, a smidgen above their 17.3 percent 40-year average. And spending was 20.3 percent, a bit below its 20.5 percent average. Taxes, spending, and deficits thus appear to be back to “normal.” If anything, fiscal policy in 2014 was…
  • On Residence, Retirement, and Economic Records

    Renu Zaretsky
    20 Oct 2014 | 5:00 am
    Congress is in recess through the mid-term elections. The Daily Deduction will post each Monday until then.  What’s a multinational to do? Where is it to go?  Senator Dick Durbin and Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden seem pleased that Chicago-based AbbVie’s  decided to drop its deal with Dublin-based Shire. But other inversion deals continue to advance regardless of the Treasury’s rules to curb them, including Mylan, Chiquita, Applied Materials, and C&J Energy Services. But heading abroad might be slightly less attractive. Ireland has closed a tax loophole at the behest of…
  • Ahead of the Midterms, State Economic Trends Present Mixed Signals

    Richard C. Auxier
    17 Oct 2014 | 9:49 am
    Voters say the economy is the most important issue in the upcoming election. But as the most recent State Economic Monitor reports, the economy looks very different depending on what (and what state) you’re analyzing. And polls suggest that voters faced with these mixed messages may focus on other issues when they choose governors in November. The good news for incumbents is on employment. Every state but Alaska added jobs between August 2013 and August 2014, and the unemployment rate dropped in 45 states and the District of Columbia during that period. Jobless rates fell at least 1…
 
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    Off the Charts Blog | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

  • In Case You Missed It…

    CBPP
    24 Oct 2014 | 11:31 am
    This week on Off the Charts, we focused on housing, health care, state budgets and taxes, and a constitutional convention. On housing, Barbara Sard explained how the Housing Choice Voucher program helps poor minority families raise children in low-poverty neighborhoods and avoid living in extreme-poverty neighborhoods.  She listed four ways that federal, state, and local agencies can help more families with vouchers live in better locations and described two programs that could advance this goal if sufficiently funded.  She also laid out two policy changes that could improve the lives of…
  • Two Policy Changes Could Help Public Housing Families

    Barbara Sard
    24 Oct 2014 | 9:21 am
    Tens of thousands of children whose families can afford decent housing by living in public housing live in extremely poor neighborhoods, as I explained yesterday.  But policymakers can take steps to improve these kids’ access to safer neighborhoods with better schools. Congress has underfunded maintenance and repair of public housing for decades, causing a substantial loss in the number of units available as projects deteriorate.  The Department of Housing and Urban Development’s (HUD) Rental Assistance Demonstration (RAD) aims to preserve — and, if necessary, rebuild — distressed…
  • Two Programs Could Boost Opportunity for Families With Project-Based Rental Assistance

    Barbara Sard
    23 Oct 2014 | 11:36 am
    More than 700,000 low-income families with children can afford decent housing by living in public housing or privately owned properties that the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) subsidizes.  As we explain in our recent paper, for about 200,000 of these families, having an affordable place to live entails living in an extremely poor neighborhood — where at least 40 percent of the residents have incomes below the poverty line, and crime rates tend to be higher and schools lower performing.  Almost all of these families are racial or ethnic minorities (see chart). HUD has…
  • Medicare and Medicaid Should Be Protected in Trade Agreements

    Paul N. Van de Water
    22 Oct 2014 | 12:39 pm
    CBPP, AARP, the AFL-CIO, Consumers Union, and ten other national organizations have written to the U.S. Trade Representative asking that Medicare, Medicaid, and other health programs be excluded from the investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) provisions of pending trade agreements. ISDS would give companies a new legal avenue to challenge U.S. pricing and patent policies for drugs and medical devices: the ability to sue the U.S. government before an international arbitration panel that wouldn’t be subject to normal democratic checks and balances.  In our letter, we say: ISDS . . . would…
  • 4 Ways to Help More Families Use Vouchers to Live in Low-Poverty Neighborhoods

    Barbara Sard
    22 Oct 2014 | 11:58 am
    The Housing Choice Voucher (HCV) program has reduced families’ housing cost burdens and homelessness and boosted their housing stability, but its performance in helping families live in low-poverty, high-opportunity neighborhoods has been disappointing, as we explain in our recent paper. Overall, just about 20 percent of the families with children who use housing vouchers live in high-opportunity neighborhoods with access to good schools, safe streets, and high rates of employment.  Almost 10 percent — including a quarter of a million children — of families in the program live in…
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    Eschaton

  • Morning Thread

    25 Oct 2014 | 2:58 am
    Here's Echidne, speed blogging on:The Hobby Lobby case applied to a prisoner being held in Guantanamo.Sports figures and misogyny.Killing for love.
  • Friday Evening Thread

    24 Oct 2014 | 7:59 pm
  • Sometimes It's Hard

    24 Oct 2014 | 3:04 pm
    Good luck and best wishes to Kevin.
  • Happy Hour Thread

    24 Oct 2014 | 2:00 pm
    Friday edition!
  • The James O'Keefe Era

    24 Oct 2014 | 11:28 am
    There was a moment...not a very long moment, but a moment... when "ZOMG JAMES O'KEEFE IS GOING TO RELEASE A VIDEO AND DEMOCRATS WILL ALL SUICIDE" was like a thing. Even after all his bullshit was revealed, it was still like that, because conservatives must always be attended to because bias. Or something.The latest is pretty funny. At least no one pays much attention to it anymore, except to make fun of it.
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Solution to the helicopter design problem

    Andrew
    24 Oct 2014 | 6:14 am
    See yesterday’s post for background. Here’s the question: In the helicopter activity, pairs of students design paper ”helicopters” and compete to create the copter that takes longest to reach the ground when dropped from a fixed height. The two parameters of the helicopter, a and b, correspond to the length of certain cuts in the paper, parameterized so that each of a and b must be more than 0 and less than 1. In the activity, students are allowed to make 20 test helicopters at design points (a,b) of their choosing. The students measure how long each copter takes to reach the…
  • No, Michael Jordan didn’t say that!

    Bob Carpenter
    23 Oct 2014 | 2:08 pm
    The names are changed, but the song remains the same. First verse. There’s an article by a journalist, The odds, continually updated, by F.D. Flam in the NY Times to which Andrew responded in blog form, No, I didn’t say that, by Andrew Gelman, on this blog. Second verse. There’s an article by a journalist, Machine-Learning Maestro Michael Jordan on the Delusions of Big Data and Other Huge Engineering Efforts, by Lee Gomes, published in IEEE Spectrum (the “light” magazine you get when you join IEEE). to which Michael Jordan responded in blog form, Big Data, Hype,…
  • Some questions from our Ph.D. statistics qualifying exam

    Andrew
    23 Oct 2014 | 6:07 am
    In the in-class applied statistics qualifying exam, students had 4 hours to do 6 problems. Here were the 3 problems I submitted: In the helicopter activity, pairs of students design paper ”helicopters” and compete to create the copter that takes longest to reach the ground when dropped from a fixed height. The two parameters of the helicopter, a and b, correspond to the length of certain cuts in the paper, parameterized so that each of a and b must be more than 0 and less than 1. In the activity, students are allowed to make 20 test helicopters at design points (a,b) of their choosing.
  • Stan 2.5, now with MATLAB, Julia, and ODEs

    Bob Carpenter
    22 Oct 2014 | 12:59 pm
    As usual, you can find everything on the Stan Home Page. Drop us a line on the stan-users group if you have problems with installs or questions about Stan or coding particular models. New Interfaces We’d like to welcome two new interfaces: MatlabStan by Brian Lau, and  Stan.jl (for Julia) by Rob Goedman. The new interface home pages are linked from the Stan home page. New Features The biggest new feature is a differential equation solver (Runge-Kutta from Boost’s odeint with coupled sensitivities). We also added new cbind and rbind functions, is_nan and is_inf functions, a…
  • Sailing between the Scylla of hyping of sexy research and the Charybdis of reflexive skepticism

    Andrew
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:56 am
    Recently I had a disagreement with Larry Bartels which I think is worth sharing with you. Larry and I took opposite positions on the hot topic of science criticism. To put things in a positive way, Larry was writing about some interesting recent research which I then constructively criticized. To be more negative, Larry was hyping some sexy research and I was engaging in mindless criticism. The balance between promotion and criticism is always worth discussing, but particularly so in this case because of two factors: 1. The research in question is on the borderline. The conclusions in…
 
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    macroblog

  • What's behind Declining Labor Force Participation? Test Your Hypothesis with Our New Data Tool

    macroblog
    15 Oct 2014 | 9:03 am
    The share of people (age 16 and over) participating in the labor market—that is, either working or looking for work—declined significantly during the recession. As many researchers have noted (see our list of supplemental reading under "More Information"), there is clearly a cyclical component to the decline. When labor market opportunities dry up, it influences decisions to pursue activities other than work, such as schooling, taking care of family, or retiring. However, much of the decrease in the overall labor force participation rate (LFPR) could be the result of the…
  • On Bogs and Dots

    macroblog
    29 Sep 2014 | 12:25 pm
    Consider this scenario. You travel out of town to meet up with an old friend. Your hotel is walking distance to the appointed meeting place, across a large grassy field with which you are unfamiliar. With good conditions, the walk is about 30 minutes but, to you, the quality of the terrain is not so certain. Though nobody seems to be able to tell you for sure, you believe that there is a 50-50 chance that the field is a bog, intermittently dotted with somewhat treacherous swampy traps. Though you believe you can reach your destination in about 30 minutes, the better part of wisdom is to go it…
  • The Changing State of States' Economies

    macroblog
    15 Sep 2014 | 2:05 pm
    Timely data on the economic health of individual states recently came from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The new quarterly state-level gross domestic product (GDP) series begins in 2005 and runs through the fourth quarter of 2013. The map below offers a look at how states have fared since 2005 relative to the economic performance of the nation as a whole. Learn About Tableau It’s interesting to see the map depict an uneven expansion between the second quarter of 2005 and the peak of the cycle in the fourth quarter of 2007. By the fourth quarter of 2008, most parts of the…
  • What Kind of Job for Part-Time Pat?

    macroblog
    25 Aug 2014 | 12:35 pm
    As anyone who follows macroblog knows, we have been devoting a lot of attention recently to the issue of people working part-time for economic reasons (PTER), which means people who want full-time work but have not yet been able to find it. As of July 2014, the number of people working PTER stood at around 7.5 million. This level is down from a peak of almost 9 million in 2011 but is still more than 3 million higher than before the Great Recession. That doesn’t mean they won’t ever find full-time work in the future, but their chances are a lot lower than in the past. Consider Pat,…
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    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • Immigration & capitalism

    chris dillow
    23 Oct 2014 | 6:31 am
    John Harris writes: Perhaps those who reduce people’s worries and fears [about immigration] to mere bigotry should go back to first principles, and consider whether, in such laissez-faire conditions, free movement has been of most benefit to capital or labour. Let's do this. Here are some first principles:  - Factor price equalization. Foreign workers can bid down British wages through trade. Whether they come here or not, their effect on wages is much the same.  - Complementarities. Some foreign workers are complements for native ones, and so raise wages of the latter. For example,…
  • Immigration & capitalism

    chris dillow
    23 Oct 2014 | 6:24 am
    John Harris writes: Perhaps those who reduce people’s worries and fears [about immigration] to mere bigotry should go back to first principles, and consider whether, in such laissez-faire conditions, free movement has been of most benefit to capital or labour. Let's do this. Here are some first principles:  - Factor price equalization. Foreign workers can bid down British wages through trade. Whether they come here or not, their effect on wages is much the same.  - Complementarities. Some foreign workers are complements for native ones, and so raise wages of the latter. For example,…
  • Persuasion with statistics

    chris dillow
    22 Oct 2014 | 6:39 am
    Mark Thoma's point that apparently strong econometric results are often the product of specification mining prompts Lars Syll to remind us that eminent economists have long been wary of what econometrics can achieve. I doubt if many people have ever thought "Crikey, the t stats are high here. That means I must abandon my long-held beliefs about an important matter." More likely, the reaction is to recall Dave Giles' commandments nine and 10. (Apparently?) impressive econometric findings might be good enough to get you published. But there's a big difference between…
  • Facts, & the Establishment

    chris dillow
    21 Oct 2014 | 6:35 am
    Jeremy Duns accuses Owen Jones of some factual errors. Insofar as he's right, this actually strengthen the substance of Owen's big contention - that the Establishment is a self-regarding clique. Owen's errors are not decisive ones; the claims he has got wrong are not load-bearing ones. Nobody is going to think "So, the DESO doesn't exist any more. This shows that there's no such thing as crony capitalism." In pointing out his errors, Jeremy is not so much defending the Establishment as attacking Owen. Let's grant, for the sake of argument, that…
  • Social mobility in a dystopia

    chris dillow
    20 Oct 2014 | 6:43 am
    I have long been sceptical of the feasibility and desireability of social mobility. Today's report by the Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission, though, makes me wonder: is social mobility an out-dated idea? To see my point, imagine two different societies. One is a bourgeois society, comprising a mass affluent middle class alongside some poverty. The other is a winner-take-all society in which the 1% enjoy huge incomes whilst the 99% just get by. Now, the Milburn Commission's recommendations make sense for a bourgeois society. Improving the educational opportunities of the…
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    Moneybox

  • Surprising Findings About Introverts in the Workplace

    Oscar Raymundo
    24 Oct 2014 | 1:45 pm
    This article originally appeared in Inc. Do you have the extroverted personality of a natural-born leader? If not, you can still be a successful entrepreneur. In fact, introverts make better listeners and can switch back and forth between introversion and extroversion to outperform their chattier counterparts. "Being a high self-monitor, a standup chameleon as I like to call them, that can shift positions to suit the situation is most effective in the early stages of entrepreneurship," says Brian Little, author of Me, Myself, and Us: The Science of Personality and the Art…
  • Go to This Site Right Now and Check If Someone Owes You Money

    Jordan Weissmann
    24 Oct 2014 | 9:39 am
    Go get your money, people. For much of yesterday afternoon, Slate staffers were sending giddy emails to one another about this website from New York State’s Office of Unclaimed Funds. Just type in your name, and you can check whether the state is holding onto money that you were owed but that never reached your bank account. Maybe you overpaid Comcast one month and the refund got lost in the mail. Maybe one of your employers sent a paycheck to the wrong address, and you forgot to follow up. If so, the money is probably listed on New York's site, which you can use to collect it. Even if you…
  • Amazon Investors Suddenly Bearish on Losing Money

    Alison Griswold
    23 Oct 2014 | 2:53 pm
    Amazon just reported its third-quarter earnings, and the numbers weren’t pretty. It missed Wall Street’s targets for revenue and gave disappointing sales projections for the holidays. It posted a quarterly loss of $437 million. Investors aren’t happy. The stock is tanking. It’s a little weird. Amazon is a Wall Street darling. The “prophet of no profit,” as Matt Yglesias once wrote in Slate, has long been given a bye from investors—the right to operate without close regard to its quarterly reports and margins. Investors accepted that Jeff Bezos was playing the long game and…
  • It Seems No One Is Rich or Happy: I Looked

    Jeff Haden
    23 Oct 2014 | 8:51 am
    This article originally appeared in Inc. One day I'd like to meet someone who is, in fact, rich. Sometimes I think I've found one, but I'm always wrong. No matter how rich I imagined the person to be, within a few minutes I find out just how poor that person really is. Take the guy who sold his company for more than $40 million. (Well, actually $100 million in total; $40 million is his share.) I was sure he was rich. Then he told me how, for tax and estate planning purposes, he had structured the disbursement of funds over 10 years. So sure, he may be "worth" $40 million, but he…
  • Is McDonald’s Planning to Replace Its Cashiers With Computer Screens?

    Jordan Weissmann
    22 Oct 2014 | 10:36 am
    After McDonald’s announced yet another round of disappointing earnings yesterday—its quarterly profits fell 30 percent—the Wall Street Journal editorial page took a moment to gloat. “So even one of the world’s most ubiquitous consumer brands cannot print money at its pleasure,” it wrote. “This may be news to liberal pressure groups that have lately been demanding that government order the chain known for cheap food to somehow pay higher wages.” In other words, if you think McDonald’s is doing poorly now, just imagine how it would fare with a $10 or $15 minimum wage.
 
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    Economic Development Blog » Economic Development Blog -

  • Seguin, Texas Economic Development Deploys Customer Analytics Tool for Retail Attraction

    Economic Development HQ.com
    17 Oct 2014 | 8:20 am
    The City of Seguin, Texas is going to start using a customer analytics tool to boost their retail attraction efforts. Seguin, TX (photo – seguintexas.gov) The City and the Seguin Economic Development Corporation will be using SCOUT, a customer analytics tool from Fort Worth-based Buxton. This tool will help the City identify retailers that match the dining and shopping habits of consumers in the Seguin trade area, allowing the Seguin EDC to use and provide data-backed verification of retail potential. Lisa McCay, vice president in Buxton’s public sector division, said in a release…
  • Rockford Economic Development’s Aviation Cluster Gets a Boost With AAR MRO Groundbreaking

    Economic Development HQ.com
    16 Oct 2014 | 11:05 pm
    AAR Corporation broke ground on a new maintenance, repair and overhaul facility (MRO) hangar at Rockford International Airport in Rockford, IL. AAR MRO groundbreaking at Rockford International Airport in Rockford, IL (photo – rockfordil.com) AAR Chairman and CEO David P. Storch was joined at the groundbreaking by Governor Pat Quinn and Senator Dick Durbin. The $40 million AAR MRO facility covers 200,000 square feet on a 13-acre site, and includes a nine and a half-story jet hangar. The project is expected to create 500 new jobs over five years, and was made possible with a $15 million…
  • Energy Efficient Insulation Producer Expanding Alabama Manufacturing Facility

    Economic Development HQ.com
    16 Oct 2014 | 10:03 pm
    Knauf Insulation, which recycles glass bottles into insulation used in construction to make buildings more energy-efficient, is expanding a manufacturing facility in Lanett, AL. Knauf Insulation plant in Lanett, AL (photo – Knauf Insulation/madeinalabama.com) The Shelbyville, IN-based insulation producer selected the Lanett plant for this expansion after considering several other production facilities in its network. Knauf insulation is an international company and a part of the Knauf family of companies, with 40 manufacturing facilities around the world and $2 billion in annual…
  • Walmart Expanding E-Commerce Distribution Network in Georgia, Pennsylvania

    Economic Development HQ.com
    16 Oct 2014 | 7:49 am
    Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) unveiled their capital expenditure plans for the next fiscal year, and the focus is now squarely on investing heavily on e-commerce initiatives while moderating the physical growth of larger stores. Walmart fulfillment center (photo – walmart.com) The initial beneficiaries of Walmart’s plan to invest heavily in expanding their e-commerce business are Union City, GA and Bethlehem, PA. In Georgia, Governor Nathan Deal announced that Walmart is investing $108 million to establish a 1.2 million-square-foot distribution facility in Fulton County to support its…
  • Hot Springs, Arkansas Economic Development Teams Help Window Source Expand

    Economic Development HQ.com
    15 Oct 2014 | 11:04 pm
    Window Source of Arkansas, a part of one of the largest window retailers in the U.S., is expanding its local operations in Hot Springs, AR. The Window Source (photo – thewindowsource.net) The company has moved into a new building in Hot Springs and doubled its staff, and is expanding the business from Arkansas to other states including Texas, Mississippi, Louisiana and possibly Tennessee. They’re also looking to be named as the national training center for all stores under The Window Source brand. Owners Shaun Keefe and Morgan Wiles started the business in Nov 2011 with no other…
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    Washington Center for Equitable Growth

  • Jeff Madrick, Josh Bivens, Brad DeLong, Ylan Mui: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America

    Brad DeLong
    24 Oct 2014 | 2:49 pm
    EPI: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America: “
  • Afternoon Must-Read: Larry Mishel: The Wage Message

    Brad DeLong
    24 Oct 2014 | 2:39 pm
    Larry Mishel: The Wage Message: “The intellectual basis for [skill-biased technological change, SBTC]… …in my view has collapsed. It has very little to contribute to the understanding over inequality over the last 20 years, and is not the basis for thinking about the future so much. That still leaves 1970-1994, no? And even though shifting numbers of non-college and college-educated workers relative to requirements don’t have much any purchase on rising inequality since the mid-1990s, any labor-force strategy that spends money and gets people to complete college is…
  • Afternoon Must-Read: David Drake: Newsletter #82

    Brad DeLong
    24 Oct 2014 | 2:34 pm
    David Drake: Newsletter #82: “I was a conservative kid… …Dad worked with his hands–he was an electrician–but he was anti-union and identified with the middle class rather than radical labor. Our family had middle-class values, read slick magazines rather than pulps, and voted Republican…. A lot of people raised the way I was think that Something Should Be Done about this or that world problem… Boko Haram’s kidnapping… the Lord’s Resistance Army… the Islamic State…. All of these organizations do horrific things by the standards of any…
  • Afternoon Must-Read: Fabian Kindermann and Dirk Krueger: High Marginal Tax Rates on the Top 1%? Lessons from a Life Cycle Model with Idiosyncratic Income Risk

    Brad DeLong
    24 Oct 2014 | 2:17 pm
    Fabian Kindermann and Dirk Krueger: High Marginal Tax Rates on the Top 1%? Lessons from a Life Cycle Model with Idiosyncratic Income Risk: “Very high marginal labor income tax rates are an effective tool for social insurance… …even when households have preferences with high labor supply elasticity, make dynamic savings decisions, and policies have general equilibrium effects. To make this point we construct a large scale Overlapping Generations Model with uninsurable labor productivity risk, show that it has a wealth distribution that matches the data well, and then use it…
  • Noted for Your Lunchtime Procrastination for October 24, 2014

    Brad DeLong
    24 Oct 2014 | 8:28 am
    Must- and Shall-Reads: Matt O’Brien: The bottom 90 percent are poorer today than they were in 1987 – The Washington Post Mark Thoma: Will the big banks ever clean up their act? Richard Mayhew: Calling the consolidation efficiency bluff   Michela Giorcelli and Petra Moser: Copyright and Creativity: Evidence from Italian Operas: “This paper exploits variation in the adoption of copyright laws within Italy – as a result of Napoleon’s military campaign – to examine the effects of copyrights on creativity. To measure variation in the quantity and quality of creative…
 
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    Bankrate.com » Economics

  • Podcast: Keep calm and invest on

    Doug Whiteman
    20 Oct 2014 | 3:05 am
    The recent ups and downs -- mostly downs -- on Wall Street have not been for the faint of heart. Anxiety levels have been raised even further by some behind-the-scenes turbulence. It can be tough enough for an investor to white-knuckle it and hold on tight while markets are behaving like a bucking bronco, but
  • Financial scourges: The E-words

    Mark Hamrick
    20 Oct 2014 | 3:05 am
    Ebola and Europe have been rocking U.S. markets. What's expected for this week?
  • Podcast: Must-dos for job seekers

    Doug Whiteman
    13 Oct 2014 | 3:05 am
    In this week's Bankrate podcast: How to get the most from job fairs and LinkedIn.
  • Podcast: Dealing with bullies at work

    Doug Whiteman
    6 Oct 2014 | 3:05 am
    Bankrate's podcast examines workplace bullying and offers an update on the housing market.
  • A peek through the Fed’s keyhole

    Mark Hamrick
    6 Oct 2014 | 3:05 am
    This week's highlights will include a look behind the curtain at the Federal Reserve.
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    FiveThirtyEight » Economics | FiveThirtyEight

  • U.S. High School Dropout Rates Fall, Especially Among Latinos

    Ben Casselman
    20 Oct 2014 | 3:36 am
    Five years ago, educators at Elkhart Community Schools realized they had a problem. Their dropout rate was too high. More than one third of the northern Indiana school district’s students weren’t graduating from high school on schedule. Among Hispanics, who make up about a third of the student body, the figures were even worse.“It was a significant moment where we said we have to change the culture,” said Gail Draper, who heads the guidance department at Elkhart Central High School. “We had to do something to turn the tide.”It seems to be working. In 2013, 85 percent of…
  • You See Sneakers, These Guys See Hundreds Of Millions In Resale Profit

    Lisa Chow
    17 Oct 2014 | 3:06 am
    Shirod Ince sat at the front of a line of more than 100 people, mostly guys in their early 20s, on a Friday evening last month. For two days, he and his friends had been taking turns waiting outside a Foot Locker in Harlem to buy the new LeBron sneaker. Through the long, restless hours, they had sustained themselves on Popeye’s, McDonald’s and a belief that it would all pay off in the end.Ince had no plans to wear the new Nikes. No, for the past two years, the 22-year-old basketball coach has been reselling the sneakers he waits for. And he thought he could double, triple, possibly even…
  • Senate Control Could Come Down To Whole Foods vs. Cracker Barrel

    David Wasserman
    8 Oct 2014 | 6:58 am
    A few weeks ago, the new moderator of “Meet the Press,” Chuck Todd, took to his “Nerd Screen” to outline an unconventional way to think about the midterm political landscape. His theory: 2014’s hottest races are boiling down to big Democratic urban areas and inner suburbs with lots of Starbucks coffee shops versus heavily Republican exurban hinterlands and rural areas with lots of Chick-fil-A restaurants.11But after immersing myself in numbers, maps and, admittedly, a spicy chicken sandwich, I discovered a slight problem: Neither chain’s political geography fits…
  • Marriage Isn’t Dead — Yet

    Ben Casselman
    29 Sep 2014 | 10:09 am
    Fewer Americans of all stripes are getting married. But beneath that overarching trend lies an important distinction: Some groups are merely delaying marriage, while others are skipping it entirely.The Pew Research Center last week released a big report on the decline in marriage in the United States. In 1960, nearly 90 percent of 25- to 34-year olds had been married; today, that figure is barely 50 percent.12 The trend is remarkably broad, cutting across race, education, income and other characteristics.13But dig deeper into the numbers and they reveal a hidden divide: Affluent,…
  • The American Middle Class Hasn’t Gotten A Raise In 15 Years

    Ben Casselman
    22 Sep 2014 | 3:01 am
    In 1988, the typical American adult was 40 years old, white and married, with a high school diploma. If he was a man, he probably worked full time. If she was a woman, she probably didn’t.Twenty-five years later, Americans are older, more diverse and more educated. We are less likely to be married and more likely to live alone. Work is divided more evenly between the sexes. One thing that hasn’t changed? The income of the median U.S. household is still just under $52,000.The government’s release last week of income and poverty data for 2013 brought renewed attention to the apparent…
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    Economics and everyday life at EconLife.com

  • Up Like a Rocket, Down Like a Feather

    Elaine Schwartz
    24 Oct 2014 | 5:00 am
    At your local gas station, you might be seeing some sticky prices. Although barrels of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude have steadily gotten cheaper, the price at the pump has had a less steep downward trajectory. One economic study observed that it took four weeks to reflect a crude price increase but eight weeks …
  • Dynamic Toll Prices

    Econlife Editor
    23 Oct 2014 | 7:29 am
    By Astha Puri with Elaine Schwartz View the story "Dynamic Toll Prices" on Storify
  • You’ll Need a License for That

    Elaine Schwartz
    23 Oct 2014 | 7:00 am
    With the Supreme Court deciding if North Carolina's dentists can exclusively whiten teeth, the pros and cons of occupational licenses are being debated.
  • There Is No Such Thing as a Free Charge

    Elaine Schwartz
    22 Oct 2014 | 5:00 am
    Electric vehicle subsidies change a slew of incentives that range from car purchases to commuting and parking decisions.
  • Why There is Less Marriage

    Elaine Schwartz
    21 Oct 2014 | 6:00 am
    New attitudes that value marriage less and new economics through which women have more pay and education and men work less have changed marriage markets.
 
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    Vox - All

  • Vox Sentences: The ridiculous New York City Ebola freakout

    Dylan Matthews
    24 Oct 2014 | 5:20 pm
    1. Ebola in Mali (and New York) Mayor Bill de Blasio at a press conference about the Ebola outbreak. (Kena Betancur/Getty Image) The first Ebola patient in Mali died. She was a two year old girl. [Time / Naina Bajekal] 43 people were exposed to her, and are being monitored. [BBC] Dr. Craig Spencer — a New York doctor who had been working on the Ebola outbreak in Guinea for Doctors Without Borders — has tested positive for the disease upon his return home. [Vox / Amanda Taub] The Mali situation is almost certainly more dangerous — Ebola is much more lethal in countries with poorly…
  • Marysville school shooter Jaylen Fryberg: what we know

    Amanda Taub
    24 Oct 2014 | 4:08 pm
    There was a shooting at Marysville-Pilchuck High School, just north of Seattle, Friday morning. The gunman, 14-year-old Jaylen Fryberg, is dead of a self-inflicted gunshot wound. A female student is dead and several more are wounded. Not much is known about Fryberg or his motives, and few clues are available on his social media accounts. In recent weeks, tweets from an unverified Twitter account that appears to have belonged to Fryberg became increasingly angry and melancholy. The last tweet from the account, posted on October 23, read, "It won't last.… It will never last…" Here's a…
  • Taylor Swift's new album 1989 has leaked

    Kelsey McKinney
    24 Oct 2014 | 2:52 pm
    After months of perfect secrecy and rumors that Taylor Swift was only allowing people to listen to her new album 1989 on her personal iPhone,the entire album has leaked just days before it is scheduled Monday release date. "Loose lips sink ships all the damn time," as Taylor sings on "I Know Places." Of course, downloading the leaked album is probably illegal and we would never suggest you do that. This leak won't matter, though, for Swift's success. 2012'sRed sold 1.23 million copiesin the first week, and it also leaked in full. For some context, only 18albumseverhave joined the…
  • The marijuana midterms: 3 states and DC will vote on legalization in November

    German Lopez
    24 Oct 2014 | 1:20 pm
    On November 4, voters in several states could break down restrictions on a drug once known for Reefer Madness. In Alaska, Oregon, and Washington, DC, voters will decide if they want to usher in marijuana legalization. In Florida, voters will decide whether to amend their state constitution to allow medical marijuana. Here's a breakdown of each state's initiative, the latest polls, and how the opposing campaigns are pushing their messages to the voters. Continue reading…
  • We still judge Monica Lewinsky more harshly than Bill Clinton, and it’s not okay

    Jenée Desmond-Harris
    24 Oct 2014 | 11:50 am
    Let's imagine a hypothetical workplace where the male CEO has an affair with a young, female intern. The CEO is married, of course, and a serial philanderer. He's powerful and charismatic, and he invites his new paramour to listen in on meetings she would never otherwise hear, and suggests that he can help her career in big ways. Obviously, it takes two people to have an affair. But if you had to apportion blame, where would you put it: the older, married CEO, or the young, unmarried intern? America is mad at the intern. An Economics/YouGov poll earlier this year, presented under the…
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    Commentary - Money, Banking and Financial Markets

  • Rolling the dice, again

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    21 Oct 2014 | 5:57 am
    The headline on Reuters at Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:05pm EDT read “U.S. regulator targeting lower down payments on mortgages.” At first, we thought perhaps the headline was from 2004, not 2014. After the financial crisis of 2007-2009, it seemed inconceivable that U.S. authorities would again put some of the largest U.S. intermediaries – or the taxpayers who provide for them – at risk of failure. Sadly, we were wrong.In a speech to the Mortgage Bankers Association, Melvin L. Watt, the Director of the agency that regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, made the following statement:“To…
  • How big should central bank balance sheets be?

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    20 Oct 2014 | 5:41 am
    In 2007, the Fed’s balance sheet was less than $1 trillion. Today, it is nearly $4.5 trillion. The U.S. experience is far from unique. Since 2007, global central bank balance sheets have nearly tripled to more than $22 trillion as of mid-2014. And, the increase is split evenly between advanced and emerging market economies (EMEs) (see chart).Central Bank Assets (Trillions of U.S. Dollars) Source: National central banks. So what’s the right size? The answer depends on the policy goals and the nature of the financial system. In the case of the Fed, we expect that it will be able to achieve…
  • Living Wills or Phoenix Plans: Making sure banks can rise from their ashes

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    13 Oct 2014 | 5:28 am
    Wills are for when you die. Living wills guide your affairs when you lose the capacity to act.We’re all mortal and fragile – not just people, but firms and banks, too. The Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 requires systemic intermediaries (and many others) to create “living wills” to guide their orderly resolution in bad times.In August, these Dodd-Frank living wills made front-page business news when the FDIC and the Fed rejected those submitted by the biggest banks as inadequate. That should come as no surprise. In their current form, we doubt that living wills would do much to secure…
  • Making Finance Safe

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    6 Oct 2014 | 5:30 am
    Walter Wriston, Citicorp’s chief for nearly two decades until 1984, used to argue that banks’ didn’t need much, if any, capital. The global financial crisis put that view to rest. Today, we know that if banks are going to be able to absorb large unforeseen losses that would otherwise threaten financial stability, they need to finance themselves with equity, not just debt.But how much capital do banks need to have to ensure the financial system is safe? Even after the financial crisis, answers to this question range widely, making it the single most contentious source of debate among…
  • The dollar is now everyone's problem

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    29 Sep 2014 | 6:13 am
    The global financial crisis started in 2007 when European banks came under increasing strain. If forced to specify the crisis kickoff, we would pick Thursday, August 9, the day that BNP Paribas halted redemptions from three investment funds because it couldn’t value their holdings of U.S. mortgages. Responding to the ensuing market scramble for liquidity, the ECB injected €95 billion that day into the European banking system and the Federal Reserve put $24 billion in theirs. Today, with the benefit of hindsight, these numbers appear quaint, but then they seemed enormous. (You can find a…
 
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    Credence Independent Advisors

  • UK on track to be fastest growing G7 economy despite slowdown

    Kareem Sattar
    25 Oct 2014 | 1:46 am
    Markets breathe sigh of relief as 0.7% GDP rise proves lower than previous quarter but still meets forecasts. The UK remains on track to be the fastest growing G7 economy this year despite new figures showing that GDP growth slowed in the third quarter. A rise of 0.7% – a slowdown from 0.9% in the second quarter – was in line with most forecasts. But after recent economic indicators showing a weaker housing market, and slower manufacturing and consumer spending, some had feared growth could be weaker. Relief in financial markets at the figures, which confirmed seven consecutive quarters…
  • Markets rally on ECB stimulus hopes

    Chris Ferguson
    21 Oct 2014 | 11:44 pm
    London’s FTSE 100 jumped 1.7pc following a report the European Central Bank is considering buying corporate bonds to bolster the eurozone economy. Talk of a central bank taking action to bolster the economy once again spurred a rally in global stock markets. Less than a week after equities were buoyed by suggestions the US Federal Reserve could delay the end of its quantitative easing programme, investors were cheered by a report the European Central Bank might extend its own stimulus measures. The FTSE 100 jumped 105.26 points, or 1.7pc, to 6,372.33 – recovering all of Monday’s…
  • Eurozone starts QE-lite as currency bloc faces fresh crisis

    Thomas Crowe
    21 Oct 2014 | 1:15 am
    The European Central Bank has begun snapping up covered bonds, one part of a three-pronged trident of measures aimed at reviving the flagging eurozone economy. The European Central Bank (ECB) has begun purchases of some French assets, in an attempt to revive a flagging eurozone. Monday’s purchases marked the start of the covered bond purchase programme (CBPP3), and is one of three new tools intended to stimulate the euro area economy. By buying covered bonds – bonds backed by underlying loans – the ECB intends to expand its balance sheet, and boost demand in the region. The ECB…
  • Pensions rule change could see millions of savers ditch gold-plated pensions

    Glenn Scott-Ellis
    20 Oct 2014 | 4:36 am
    New rights to access pension cash early will tempt more people away from defined benefit schemes, according to a study. Millions of savers will give up their gold-plated pensions to gain earlier access to their retirement savings, according to a report to be published this week, in a sweeping change that will help plug pension deficits at the country’s biggest companies. New rights to take money out of pension pots only apply to people saving through defined contribution schemes, leaving out those with defined benefit pensions, also known as final salary schemes. A study by actuaries at…
  • Markets may have over-reacted to slowdown: BoE’s Haldane

    Dermot Crawford
    19 Oct 2014 | 5:07 am
    (Reuters) – Investors may have over-reacted to signs of economic slowdown, although they have been right to price in weaker global growth prospects, the Bank of England’s chief economist said in a Sunday newspaper interview. “What we have seen over the past week is financial markets catching up with the data,” Andrew Haldane told Britain’s Observer newspaper. “Possibly over-reacting to the data but certainly catching up, because I think there has been a drip, drip, drip – globally I mean – of slightly below-par news for several months.” In a wild…
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    iTestCash.com - News

  • $500,000 in Fake Merchandise Confiscated at East Indianapolis Store

    Alexander Reichmann
    13 Oct 2014 | 12:36 pm
    This past Sunday there was a big hit on a store in Indianapolis.  The store was selling hundreds of thousands dollars in fake merchandise posing as brands such as Nike, Gucci, Oakley, UGG, Polo, Otterbox, Coach, NBA, NFL, NHL, and MLB. The items confiscated included clothing such as shoes, hats and shirts, along with other items like cell phone cases and unlicensed copies of DVD movies. According to the reports, the Indiana Excise officers searched the store from about 11 a.m. until about 5:30 p.m. totaling more than 6 hours spent searching and retrieving items from the store. A trailer and…
  • $1000 Cheeseburger at Sonic: Why Businesses Need to Worry About Counterfeit Bills

    Alexander Reichmann
    16 Sep 2014 | 10:48 am
    Counterfeit money can turn up when you least expect it. This week, for example, a 22-year-old man named Christopher R. Cascio was arrested for attempting to pass off counterfeit money at Sonic, a popular fast-food restaurant chain. He was arraigned on Wednesday and is currently being held on $1,000 bail- a very expensive cheeseburger. That raises the question though, why do people do it? Passing off large bills for big ticket items might have some logic, but why bother to go through the trouble of obtaining counterfeit money only to exchange it for a $3 cheeseburger? Cascio isn’t alone. The…
  • 4 Reasons Why You Should Be Concerned About Counterfeit Currency

    Alexander Reichmann
    13 Aug 2014 | 1:29 pm
    With the modern explosion of technology and growth of electronic payments, most small businesses and individuals are no longer worried about counterfeit currency, as online and electronic fraud has become a bigger, scarier problem. Although it may seem like online fraud is more common and favored amongst fraudsters in 2014, small business owners mustn’t forget about the very real threat that is counterfeit currency. Even with all the clever, difficult-to-imitate features that the Federal Reserve has put on notes over the years, criminals still manage to counterfeit notes with the use of…
  • Counterfeit Money Being Passed at Garage Sales

    Alexander Reichmann
    3 Aug 2014 | 4:16 pm
    A news report from Kake gives notice that counterfeit money is said to be being used at garage sales in Wichita, Kansas. This likely isn't a surprise to people following news on the topic. We reported on our website a few years ago when a report came out that fake money was used at a lemonade stand which is similar to this story in how it could effect a small sale operation. This article from Kansas says that the Wichita police have seen several casess like this in the past few months of fake money being used at garage sales. They also mention that you can buy a special pen to detect if the…
  • Police Officer Arrested for Counterfeit Money and Speeding

    Alexander Reichmann
    24 Jul 2014 | 11:34 am
    By Alex Reichmann A Police Officer from North Charleston was arrested on 1am Wednesday morning after being pulled over for speeding over 100 mph and being found in possession of a counterfeit 100 dollar bill. A flask that smelled like alcohol was also found in the drivers seat of Officer Huggins car. According to the report he did not seem to drunk despite his speeding.   At the time of this report, the flask and fake bill are being held as evidence in this case. This is a twist on the usual counterfeit money story. Often it is people part of a gang using large amounts of fake money around…
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    Republic 3.0

  • Social science and bipartisan lunch dates

    Anne Kim
    23 Oct 2014 | 10:08 am
    Two senators propose bipartisan lunch dates as a way to break Congressional gridlock. Don't scoff - social science backs it up. The post Social science and bipartisan lunch dates appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • Not in school, not working – and not voting

    Anne Kim
    21 Oct 2014 | 11:55 am
    5.6 million young Americans are neither working nor in school. And only 1 in 4 young Americans plans to vote this fall. Shouldn't the alarm bells be ringing? The post Not in school, not working – and not voting appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • Millennials: Speak out on November 4

    Rep. Patrick Murphy
    19 Oct 2014 | 9:00 pm
    Millennials have a major stake in the outcome of the 2014 midterms and can't afford to sit on the sidelines. The post Millennials: Speak out on November 4 appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • The JOBS Act two years later: More jobs and more IPOs

    Anne Kim
    17 Oct 2014 | 9:09 am
    Companies that have gone public under the auspices of the JOBS Act have also grown their payrolls by 18 percent. The post The JOBS Act two years later: More jobs and more IPOs appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • Trade policy Manichaeism – Why the trade debate is stuck and how to move it forward

    Robert D. Atkinson
    12 Oct 2014 | 9:00 pm
    Both sides of the trade debate are headed toward dead ends. It's time to acknowledge some fundamental truths about trade and globalization. The post Trade policy Manichaeism – Why the trade debate is stuck and how to move it forward appeared first on Republic 3.0.
 
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