Economics

  • Most Topular Stories

  • The End of the Cringe

    Paul Krugman
    By PAUL KRUGMAN
    25 Jul 2014 | 12:23 pm
    The Democrats, they are a-changing.
  • Links 7/25/14

    naked capitalism
    Yves Smith
    25 Jul 2014 | 3:55 am
  • What does the Gruber video tell us about Halbig?

    eWallstreeter
    25 Jul 2014 | 12:30 pm
    When it comes to the exchange litigation, what should we make of the Jonathan Gruber video that just came to light? In 2012, Gruber, who was heavily involved in debates over the ACA, responded to a question from the audience after a speaking engagement: [T]hese health-insurance Exchanges … will be these new shopping places and […]
  • What does the Gruber video tell us about Halbig?

    The Incidental Economist
    Nicholas Bagley
    25 Jul 2014 | 12:30 pm
    When it comes to the exchange litigation, what should we make of the Jonathan Gruber video that just came to light? In 2012, Gruber, who was heavily involved in debates over the ACA, responded to a question from the audience after a speaking engagement: [T]hese health-insurance Exchanges … will be these new shopping places and they’ll be the place that people go to get their subsidies for health insurance. In the law, it says if the states don’t provide them, the federal backstop will. The federal government has been sort of slow in putting out its backstop, I think partly because they…
  • The $1 trillion tax on cash

    Calafia Beach Pundit
    25 Jul 2014 | 1:36 pm
    One under-appreciated side-effect of the Fed's quantitative easing and zero-bound interest rate policies is the sizable "inflation tax" borne by all those who have been holding cash, cash equivalents, and short-term securities since the end of 2008. By my estimates, this tax could total $1 trillion or more. As the public becomes increasingly aware of this under-the-radar tax, the demand for cash and short-term securities (cash equivalents) is likely to decline, and that will complicate the Fed's QE exit strategy.The Fed's target for the fed funds rate (the rate banks charge each other to…
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    Real Time Economics

  • Some Home Builders Say First-Time Buyers Returning, Others Not Sure

    Kris Hudson
    25 Jul 2014 | 3:42 pm
    The anticipated return of first-time buyers to the housing market remains, like many economic indicators, prone to fits and starts. This week, two more leading home builders differed on whether first-timers are on their way back. PulteGroup Inc. stirred optimism when it disclosed during its quarterly call with investors on Thursday that sales contracts for its Centex entry-level brand leapt by 26% in the second quarter from the year-ago period. That followed a 29% gain for Centex in the first quarter. The gain remains significant even when factoring out the surging economy of Texas, where…
  • Fed Forward Guidance Works, Sometimes Better Than Others: IMF

    Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
    25 Jul 2014 | 2:45 pm
    The Federal Reserve’s various efforts at honing its low-rates message have been successful at keeping borrowing costs down by giving investors greater clarity about the likely path of policy, according to the International Monetary Fund. However, the policy’s effectiveness has varied depending on the type of guidance used, the IMF study on the U.S. economy said, published this week as part of its global economic forecasts. The Fed’s guidance has shifted quite a few times in recent years. “Forward guidance has generally been effective in moving policy expectations in the intended…
  • 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

    Kathleen Madigan
    25 Jul 2014 | 12:48 pm
    Usually a Federal Reserve meeting tops the “what might happen” list, but since the Fed has already indicated its tapering program will end in October, Friday’s July employment report is the event with the most potential to surprise next week. Besides the jobs report, the data calendar is quite full, but here are five items not to miss.
  • The Federal Government Emerges as Lone Star of the Dreary First Quarter

    Eric Morath
    25 Jul 2014 | 12:13 pm
    The economy had an unusual bright spot in the dreary first quarter: the federal government. After two years of dragging on growth, the federal government’s economic output gave an annualized 3.2% lift to the overall economy in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said Friday. A series of spending cuts and last fall’s shutdown turned the federal government into a net drag on the economy in recent years, before last quarter’s reversal. State and local government output, measured as real value added to the economy, shrank at a 1.4% pace.  And the private sector (87% of the total…
  • IMF Lays Out Own Fed Exit Strategy

    Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
    25 Jul 2014 | 11:47 am
    The International Monetary Fund has plenty of advice for the Federal Reserve ahead of its policy meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday. Fed officials are expected to continue discussions about what combination of interest-rate tools to use when they decide it’s time to raise borrowing costs across the economy, and the IMF this week offered a few suggestions. To start, the IMF suggests the Fed should think twice before relegating its traditional policy tool, the federal funds rate, to a supporting role. Minutes of the Fed’s June meeting showed central bank officials agreed they will use a…
 
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    naked capitalism

  • Links 7/26/14

    Yves Smith
    26 Jul 2014 | 3:55 am
  • Cigna: Crapification or Insurance Fraud?

    Yves Smith
    26 Jul 2014 | 1:23 am
    We've been slowly working toward a theory of crapification and if we manage to sort it out, we might even develop a school of craopnomics. But in reality, Corporate America presumably already has that well codified but has yet to release the playbook to the great unwashed masses. As much as I am of two minds about sharing personal anecdotes with readers, my recent experiences with the health insurer Cigna amount to several case studies in crapification in one nasty package. Moreover, since the American health care policy is to force even more Americans into the health insurance regime and…
  • Will the WTO Fast-Track Trade at the Expense of Food Security?

    Yves Smith
    25 Jul 2014 | 11:51 pm
    This article highlights another ugly feature of the current trade regime under the WTO, and how it operates to the disadvantage of the poorest in poor countries on a bedrock issue: food security.
  • Links 7/25/14

    Yves Smith
    25 Jul 2014 | 3:55 am
  • Banks Scapegoat Regulations for More Costly Loans Post Crisis

    Yves Smith
    25 Jul 2014 | 2:25 am
    Banks and their allies have been using every opportunity possible to blame regulations for changes in their business models after the crisis, particular if they can make it sound like the broader public, as opposed to their bottom lines, is what is suffering. Normally this messaging effort stays at the background noise level, but sometimes the lobbyists succeed in getting their message treated as a story in its own right. A recent example is a Financial Times story early this week...
 
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    Alpha.Sources

  • Is the Euro Overvalued?

    CV
    16 Jul 2014 | 7:43 am
    Well, yes if you ask Mr. Draghi it is, but not if you look at fundamental long run charts. Looking at both the REER and the trade weighted index, the euro is currently bang on average. Obviously, the ECB would like a weaker currency, but the best way to reach that objective will probably be to do nothing. It is difficult to expect a weaker currency amid a cyclical recovery with strong portfolio inflows and a current account surplus.    ---  Pictures are courtesey of Pantheon Macroeconomics and have also been posted at Twitter. 
  • Confirming or Rejecting the idea of a eurozone recovery

    CV
    14 Jul 2014 | 4:42 am
    The following chart is an interesting one, depicting the sub-index from the EC consumer survey for major purchase intentions in the eurozone over the next year. Still moribund, this indicator suggests that the consumer is still very cautious in the euro area, but what if it breaks higher?  I will be watching this closely for a move higher—or a move back down into its post-crisis range—in coming months.    Picture is courtesey of Pantheon Macroeconomics, and has also been posted at Twitter.
  • The Big Short on Volatility

    CV
    21 Apr 2014 | 11:00 pm
    Two investment themes in particular, since 2008, have been predominant in my view and the continuation or unravelling of both hold the key to successful asset allocation in the next 3-5 years. The first is the suppression of volatility on the back of aggressive and ongoing central bank intervention. The second is the hunt for yield characterised by two key currents. Firstly, investors have been pushed far out the risk spectrum (often reluctantly). Secondly, we have seen bonds and stocks appreciate and depreciate together which has put into question core tenets of traditional portfolio…
  • Changing correlations

    CV
    14 Apr 2014 | 2:18 am
    I am currently moving my life 300 miles north which entails more headbanging over missing internet, tv and other amenities in my new flat, IKEA flatpacks rather than looking at the market. One of the tidbits that did register last week however was Draghi's comments at the IMF that the euro is now starting to become a problem.  It is clear that the ECB is priming the market here for something. Although I am quite sure that this "something" will be underwhelming. One thing though that needs to be watched is the catalyst, in my view, for this recent jawboning by the ECB. Basically, the fact…
  • The lower bound of central bank effectiveness

    CV
    7 Apr 2014 | 6:51 am
    I have a bit of time on my hands at the moment to read stuff that I otherwise wouldn't have time to read. For example I am currently reading Michael Lewis' new book Flash Boys about the ins and outs of high frequency trading. I will probably have more to say about that one in a few weeks, but for now I want to point to this recent BIS speech by former BOJ governor Masaaki Shirakawa.  I recommend you to read it in its entirety, it is worth the effort. Two points in particular are worth highlighting. Firstly, Shirakawa provides a non-consensus yet apt narrative on the interaction between…
 
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    The American Prospect

  • Today's Conservative Obamacare Baloney Debunked

    Paul Waldman
    25 Jul 2014 | 8:53 am
    AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais, File In this May 12, 2009, file photo Jonathan Gruber, professor of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, participates in a Capitol Hill hearing on the overhaul of the heath care system in Washington. A supporter of the Affordable Care Act, Gruber says, "It’s so crazy to think that a society that has Social Security and Medicare would not find this (law) constitutional.” If you were perusing the conservative twitter-sphere this morning, you would have witnessed a kind of collective orgasm, as it was discovered that back in 2012, MIT…
  • A Bright Spot In Obama's Foreign Policy: Iran. Yes, Iran

    Matthew Duss
    25 Jul 2014 | 7:04 am
    U.S. State Department Photo U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry disembarks from his plane after traveling from Kabul, Afghanistan, to Vienna, Austria, on July 13, 2014 for allied talks with Iran about its nuclear program. Who would’ve ever thought that the Iranian nuclear program—that’s theIranian nuclear program—would be the bright spot in President Barack Obama’s foreign policy, the place where things were looking up? But that’s the situation we find ourselves in, with talks between Iran and the U.S. and it partners in the p5+1 (the permanent five members of the U.N. Security…
  • How Did the GOP Turn Into Such a Bunch of Clowns?

    Paul Waldman
    24 Jul 2014 | 7:31 pm
    AP Photo/Joe Marquette An American flag is held over the head of House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Ga., during a Capitol Hill performance of the Ringling Brothers and Barnum and Bailey circus, Wednesday, April 5, 1995, in Washington, D.C. The circus played Capitol Hill to mark its 125th anniversary.  For a lot of reasons, the current era will probably be seen as unusually consequential in the history of the two parties, particularly the GOP. For Republicans, it has been a time of ideological hardening and bitter infighting. But one aspect of the Republican dilemma hasn't gotten as much…
  • The Worst Excuse for Plagiarism You'll Ever Hear

    Paul Waldman
    24 Jul 2014 | 9:57 am
    Yesterday, the New York Times published an article with compelling evidence that Sen. John Walsh, the Montana Democrat who was appointed to fill the seat of Max Baucus when Baucus became ambassador to China, plagiarized most of the master's thesis he wrote at the Army War College. I confess I had no opinion about Walsh before this (he was likely to lose in November anyway, and hasn't done anything of note in his brief time in the Senate), but there are two things I want to point out. You can read Walsh's entire thesis at the Times, and it won't take you that long, because not including…
  • Hobby Lobby Decision Could Give License to Anti-Labor 'Biblical Economics' Practices

    Peter Montgomery
    24 Jul 2014 | 6:26 am
    AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais A demonstrator dressed as the 'Bible' stands outside the Supreme Court building awaiting the court's decision on the Hobby Lobby case in Washington, Monday, June 30, 2014. The Supreme Court says corporations can hold religious objections that allow them to opt out of the new health law requirement that they cover contraceptives for women. This article originally appeared on Right Wing Watch, the website published by People For the American Way. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg wrote in her dissent in the Hobby Lobby case that the Court’s…
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    Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

  • For the Weekend: What Does the Existence of a Watchmaker Imply?

    J. Bradford DeLong
    25 Jul 2014 | 5:17 pm
  • Karl Polanyi, Classical Liberalism, and the Varieties of "Neoliberalism": Virtual Office Hours from Espresso Roma CCXXVI: July 25, 2014

    J. Bradford DeLong
    25 Jul 2014 | 11:35 am
    Karl Polanyi's The Great Transformation is certainly the right place to start in thinking about "neoliberalism" and its global spread. But you are right to notice and do need to keep thinking that Polanyi is talking about pre-World War II classical liberalism, and that modern post-1980 neoliberalism is somewhat different. First, as I, at least, see it, there are three strands of thought that together make up the current of ideas and policies that people call "neoliberalism": The revived and restored classical liberals, via the Mont Pelerin society and so forth—-and…
  • Liveblogging World War I: July 25, 1914: The Serbian Response to the Austro-Hungarian Ultimatum

    J. Bradford DeLong
    25 Jul 2014 | 12:47 am
    The Serbian Response to the Austro-Hungarian Ultimatum: The Royal Government has received the communication of the Imperial and Royal Government of the 23rd inst. and is convinced that its reply will dissipate any misunderstanding which threatens to destroy the friendly and neighbourly relations between the Austrian monarchy and the kingdom of Serbia. The Royal Government is conscious that nowhere there have been renewed protests against the great neighbourly monarchy like those which at one time were expressed in the Skuptschina, as well as in the declaration and actions of the responsible…
  • Noted for Your Evening Procrastination for July 24, 2014

    J. Bradford DeLong
    24 Jul 2014 | 6:19 pm
    Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog Nick Bunker: The very real success of the Earned Income Tax Credit | Washington Center for Equitable Growth Casey Schoeneberger: Washington Center for Equitable Growth Announces Inaugural Class of Grantees | Washington Center for Equitable Growth Lunchtime Must-Read: Ezra Klein: Paul Ryan's Poverty Plan | Washington Center for Equitable Growth Morning Must-Read: Brian Buetler: The Adler-Cannon Halbig v. Burwell Argument Is a Fraud—Just Ask Scott Brown | Washington Center for Equitable Growth Morning Must-Read: Guido Matias Cortes et al.: The Micro…
  • What Should fivethirtyeight.com Do?: Thursday Dutch Uncle Weblogging Advice

    J. Bradford DeLong
    24 Jul 2014 | 6:24 am
    A correspondent writes, apropos of http://fivethirtyeight.com: Nate Silver's extraordinary and unique excellence is to take a look at a complicated but relatively unsophisticated spreadsheet model of a situation and then, every day, telling an excellent narrative story about a piece of the model. That is the way that http://fivethirtyeight.com could be a huge success. But he seems to be following a different strategy. The stories are more: Here is some data, here is how we built it, here is the chart, here is an interesting fact about the chart... That is unlikely to get Nate to where he…
 
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    Calculated Risk

  • Bank Failure Friday: Greenchoice Bank, Chicago, Illinois,14th Failure of 2014

    Bill McBride
    25 Jul 2014 | 4:39 pm
    From the FDIC: Providence Bank, LLC, South Holland, Illinois, Assumes All of the Deposits of Greenchoice Bank, fsb, Chicago, IllinoisAs of March 31, 2014, GreenChoice Bank, fsb had approximately $72.9 million in total assets and $71.0 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $14.2 million. ... GreenChoice Bank, fsb is the 14th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the fourth in Illinois.There were 24 failures in 2013, and it appears there will be about the same this year. F
  • Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Over 16 Million SAAR again in July

    Bill McBride
    25 Jul 2014 | 10:59 am
    The automakers will report July vehicle sales next Friday, August 1st.  Sales in June were at 16.92 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in July will be above 16 million SAAR again.  The analyst consensus is for July sales of 16.8 million SAAR.Note:  There were 26 selling days in July this year compared to 25 last year.   Here are a few forecasts:From J.D. Power: U.S. auto sales seen rising 9 percent in July: JD Power-LMC U.S. auto sales in July will be the strongest for the month since 2006, and rise 9 percent from last…
  • Hotels: Record High Occupancy Rate for Week Ending July 19th

    Bill McBride
    25 Jul 2014 | 8:10 am
    From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 19 JulyIn year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy rate rose 2.9 percent to 77.1 percent. Average daily rate increased 4.1 percent to finish the week at US$117.57. Revenue per available room for the week was up 7.1 percent to finish at US$90.68. emphasis addedNote: ADR: Average Daily Rate, RevPAR: Revenue per Available Room.This is the highest occupancy rate for any week since at least January 2000.  The previous high was 77.0% in late July 2000.And from HotelNewNow.com: June US hotel occupancy best of this…
  • Chemical Activity Barometer "retains strong year-over-year growth; shows short-term tightening"

    Bill McBride
    25 Jul 2014 | 6:38 am
    Here is a new indicator that I'm following that appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.From the American Chemistry Council: U.S. Economic Expansion Being Tempered By Uncertainty in Energy Markets, Shows Leading Economic Indicator The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC) posted a 0.4 percent increase over June, as measured on a three-month moving average (3MMA). The pace of growth was consistent with earlier growth logged in the second quarter. Year over year growth now stands at a 4.4 percent…
  • Lawler: Various Builder Results: Horton Home Orders, Market Share Jumps on Increased Sales Incentives; Orders “Lackluster” at Other Builders

    Bill McBride
    24 Jul 2014 | 6:25 pm
    CR Note: The comments on D.R. Horton are very interesting (more incentives, no price increases).  Also see table at bottom for summary stats.From housing economist Tom Lawler:D.R. Horton reported that net home orders in the quarter ended June 30, 2014 totaled 8,551, up 25.3% from the comparable quarter of 2013. Sales per community were up almost 13% YOY. Horton’s acquisition of Crown Communities added 290 to last quarter’s orders. DHI’s average net order price last quarter was $281,336, up 5.0% from a year ago. Home deliveries last quarter totaled 7,676, up 18.8% from the…
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    Crooked Timber

  • Hazlitt, Keynes and the glazier’s fallacy

    John Quiggin
    24 Jul 2014 | 4:03 pm
    I’ve been working for quite a while now on a book which will respond to Henry Hazlitt’s Economics in One Lesson a book that was issued just after 1945 and has remained in print ever since. It’s an adaptation of the work of the 19th century French free-market advocate Frederic Bastiat for a US audience, specifically aimed at refuting the then-novel ideas of Keynes. My planned title is Economics in Two Lessons. In my interpretation, Hazlitt’s One Lesson is that prices are opportunity costs[1]. My Second Lesson is that, in the absence of appropriate government policy,…
  • Severian of Nessus, Amateur Bayesian

    Henry
    22 Jul 2014 | 12:15 pm
    Noah Smith today Consider Proposition H: “God is watching out for me, and has a special purpose for me and me alone. Therefore, God will not let me die. No matter how dangerous a threat seems, it cannot possibly kill me, because God is looking out for me – and only me – at all times.” Suppose that you believe that there is a nonzero probability that H is true. And suppose you are a Bayesian – you update your beliefs according to Bayes’ Rule. As you survive longer and longer – as more and more threats fail to kill you – your belief about the…
  • Richard Thompson: Acoustic Classics

    Harry
    22 Jul 2014 | 8:15 am
    Earlier this year CB sent me an email alerting me to the fact that Richard Thompson was going to perform, soon, in Madison, and recommending him to me. In fact I already had tickets—I am a huge Richard Thompson fan, and have seen him live about as often as I have seen Belle’s relative Loudon Wainwright, over the past 35 years. I went with my wife (who doesn’t like him much), and two friends, one of whom is a fan but had never seen him before, and the other of whom had no idea who he was. I hadn’t really thought about the dangers of taking someone who doesn’t know…
  • Incongruous songs

    Harry
    21 Jul 2014 | 5:59 am
    I guess that few of our readers have seen The Lego Movie. Luckily, I have, so was very surprised to hear my boy’s cohort singing “Everything is Awesome” at the camp’s late night show. The Lego Movie is about the evils of corporate power—a kind of kid’s version of They Live—and “Everything if Awesome” is the song which all the people are supposed to sing to keep them mindless and satisfied. Not something I’d have chosen for a 7-year-olds’ camp song. Everyone knows that “Born in the USA” was used by the Reagan…
  • Sunday photoblogging: meerkats

    Chris Bertram
    19 Jul 2014 | 11:36 pm
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    Dealbreaker

  • Write-Offs: 07.25.14

    Dealbreaker
    25 Jul 2014 | 3:17 pm
    $$$ Cynk Plunges 85% as Trading Resumes After SEC Suspension [Bloomberg] $$$ Facebook Gain Makes Zuckerberg Wealthier Than Google Guys [Bloomberg] $$$ SEC Drops Probe Into Facebook for Pre-IPO Disclosures [WSJ] $$$ Greenlight takes Lam Research stake, gains on Micron, Apple [CNBC] $$$ Adam West thinks Ben Affleck will make a fine Batman [NYP] $$$… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.
  • Ace Greenberg Once Made Paper Clips Disappear

    Bess Levin
    25 Jul 2014 | 1:28 pm
    “I was just shown the results for our first quarter. They were excellent. When mortals go through a prosperous period, it seems to be human nature for expenses to balloon. We are going to be the exception. I have just informed the purchasing department that they should no longer purchase paper clips. All of us… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: 1985, Ace Greenberg, Bear Stearns, Bear Stearns alums, little critters, memos, paper clips
  • Hedge Fund Manager Thinks World’s Just About Over This Whole Apple Fad

    Jon Shazar
    25 Jul 2014 | 12:41 pm
    It certainly isn’t Carl Icahn. But Noster Capital’s Pedro de Noronha thinks Uncle Carl is in danger of losing a great deal of money some time before his 82nd birthday. “It’s a very competitive landscape. They might become obsolete in two-to-three years, as we’ve seen with dozens of technology companies.” Apple could be ‘obsolete’ in… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: Apple, Noster Capital, Pedro de Noronha, people not interested in getting an iWatch this Christmas
  • Argentina Ready To Solve This Thing If You’ll Just Give It Everything It Wants

    Jon Shazar
    25 Jul 2014 | 12:16 pm
    We’re about five-and-a-half days from Argentina’s second default in 13 years, and two days into the “continuous” “negotiations” ordered by a federal judge. So how are things going? Towards that default, obviously. “We will continue to seek ways to engage Argentina in negotiations, but there is currently a total lack of willingness on Argentina’s part… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: Argentina, Jorge Capitanich, OK but can we talk about this stay again?, Thomas Griesa
  • Bear Stearns Exec Who Straddled World Of Wall Street And Magicianry Is No Longer

    Bess Levin
    25 Jul 2014 | 11:58 am
    As you’ve probably heard by now, Alan “Ace” Greenberg, former Chairman and CEO of Bear Stearns, who was later named “vice chairman emeritus” of JP Morgan, died today at the age of 86. While he paid the bills with his finance gig, his true passion was magic. On this day, let us remember some favorite… Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: Ace Greenberg, Bear Stearns alums, goodnight sweet prince, JPMorgan alums, magic
 
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    Econbrowser

  • Russia Raises the Policy Rate

    Menzie Chinn
    25 Jul 2014 | 11:38 am
    From BBC: Russia’s central bank has unexpectedly raised its key bank interest rate over concerns about inflation and “geopolitical tension”. The bank’s board decided to raise the interest rate by 50 basis points, or half a percent, to 8% per year. … The Central Bank of Russia said on Friday that it will raise the interest rate on Monday to ease inflationary pressure. “Inflation risks have increased due to a combination of factors, including, inter alia, the aggravation of geopolitical tension and its potential impact on the rouble exchange rate dynamics, as…
  • Forward Premia and the Carry Trade

    Menzie Chinn
    24 Jul 2014 | 9:28 pm
    I was at the NBER Summer Institute’s meeting of the International Finance and Macro group where (in addition to finally meeting Jim Hamilton) I had the opportunity to hear two papers on a topic near and dear to me — namely the relationship between the forward premium (the gap between the forward and spot rate, or equivalently in the absence of political risk, the interest differential) and the carry trade. (For discussion of related papers at last year’s IFM, see this post). Recall, the basic issue is the negative correlation between interest differentials and the ex post…
  • On Perusing the Comments Sections

    Menzie Chinn
    24 Jul 2014 | 2:31 pm
    “Trolls Just Want to Have Fun” I have been thinking about this paper, particularly over the past day: …Across two studies and two measures of trolling,…[trolls] displayed high levels of the Dark Tetrad [narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and sadistic personality] traits and a BFI [Big Five Inventory] profile consistent with those traits. It was sadism, however, that had the most robust associations with trolling of any of the personality measures, including those of the Big Five. In fact, the associations between sadism and GAIT scores were so strong that it…
  • The Changing Face of World Oil Markets

    James_Hamilton
    23 Jul 2014 | 8:43 am
    Here’s the introduction to a new paper I just finished: This year the oil industry celebrated its 155th birthday, continuing a rich history of booms, busts and dramatic technological changes. Many old hands in the oil patch may view recent developments as a continuation of the same old story, wondering if the high prices of the last decade will prove to be another transient cycle with which technological advances will again eventually catch up. But there have been some dramatic changes over the last decade that could mark a major turning point in the history of the world’s use of this…
  • Unanchored

    Menzie Chinn
    21 Jul 2014 | 6:04 pm
    In a recent article, Amity Shlaes asserts official statistics mismeasure how we experience inflation. I’m going to agree, but not for the reasons you might think. It’s not because John Williams’ Shadowstats, which she appeals to, is right (Jim has comprehensively documented why each and every person who cites that source should be drummed out of the society of economists or aspiring economic commentators). Rather it’s because I think people do have biases — i.e., the steady-state rational expectations hypothesis might not be applicable. Ms. Shlaes writes in…
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    EconLog: Library of Economics and Liberty

  • Does Predictability Imply Bad Faith?

    David Henderson
    26 Jul 2014 | 8:56 am
    (July 26, 2014 08:56 AM, by David Henderson) Co-blogger Scott Sumner, on his own blog, has written a stinging critique of intellectuals. You can read it for yourself, but here's the part I want to highlight and respond to: It's an embarrassment that the two sides of the... (1 COMMENTS)
  • The Economist on Overparenting

    Bryan Caplan
    25 Jul 2014 | 9:49 am
    (July 25, 2014 09:49 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Though I'm no fan of The Economist's editorials, their science coverage remains outstanding.  Check out their latest piece on overparenting.  You could say I'm biased because the piece draws so heavily on my work, but as a pedantic professor, you'd... (3 COMMENTS)
  • Nick Rowe on fiscal policy (and reply to Caplan)

    Scott Sumner
    24 Jul 2014 | 10:32 pm
    (July 24, 2014 10:32 PM, by Scott Sumner) Keynesians often say that it's "obvious" that more government spending will boost GDP. I love this reply by Nick Rowe: The average reader of the New York Times probably thinks he knows about fiscal policy. "We know that Y=C+I+G+NX, so... (15 COMMENTS)
  • The Rhetoric of Rights and Permission

    Art Carden
    24 Jul 2014 | 3:00 pm
    (July 24, 2014 03:00 PM, by Art Carden) Earlier today, I blogged about Adam Thierer's Permissionless Innovation. Over the last few months, I've been struck by how frequently I hear public policy questions expressed in terms of granting permission: should we allow people to earn such high incomes,... (8 COMMENTS)
  • Recent Reading: Adam Thierer, Permissionless Innovation

    Art Carden
    24 Jul 2014 | 11:45 am
    (July 24, 2014 11:45 AM, by Art Carden) This morning, I read Adam Thierer's Permissionless Innovation, which you can get as a $0 PDF. From a few discussions in which I've been involved regarding Uber's attempt to enter the Birmingham market, it's clear that the idea of a... (3 COMMENTS)
 
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    Economist's View

  • Links for 7-26-14

    Mark Thoma
    26 Jul 2014 | 12:06 am
    The End of the Cringe - Paul Krugman Five myths about the gender pay gap - The Washington Post The Evidence Is In: Patent Trolls Do Hurt Innovation - James Bessen Polanyi, Classical Liberalism, and Varieties of "Neoliberalism" - Brad DeLong CEO Pay and Stock Performance correlation Pretty Random - Businessweek A Quick Check-in on the Wage Front - Jared Bernstein Are the Rich Coldhearted? - NYTimes.com How not to introduce official e-money? - FT Alphaville The Will to Make Legible - Acemoglu and Robinson Ezra Klein Asks the Wrong Question - Paul Krugman Forward Premia and the Carry…
  • 'Devolution Number Nine'

    Mark Thoma
    25 Jul 2014 | 10:10 am
    In case you missed this in today's links, it's worth noting explicitly: Devolution Number Nine, by MaxSpeak: Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Crazy) has a new plan to fight poverty..., the common theme throughout the report is to convert Federal programs into block grants. A block grant is a fixed pot of money provided to a state or local government for broadly-defined purposes. Ryan’s report is at pains to assert that the conversion would not entail spending cuts. This could not be further from the truth. The story goes back to the days of Richard Nixon. I told it here. ... The short version is…
  • 'Ignoring Climate Change Could Sink the U.S. Economy'

    Mark Thoma
    25 Jul 2014 | 8:28 am
    Robert Rubin: How ignoring climate change could sink the U.S. economy, by Robert E. Rubin: ...When it comes to the economy, much of the debate about climate change ... is framed as a trade-off between environmental protection and economic prosperity. Many people argue that moving away from fossil fuels and reducing carbon emissions will impede economic growth, hurt business and hamper job creation. But from an economic perspective, that’s precisely the wrong way to look at it. The real question should be: What is the cost of inaction? In my view — and in the view of a growing group of…
  • Paul Krugman: Left Coast Rising

    Mark Thoma
    25 Jul 2014 | 12:24 am
    Beware of "anti-government propaganda": Left Coast Rising, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: The states, Justice Brandeis famously pointed out, are the laboratories of democracy. And it’s still true. For example, one reason we knew or should have known that Obamacare was workable was the post-2006 success of Romneycare in Massachusetts. More recently, Kansas went all-in on supply-side economics, slashing taxes on the affluent in the belief that this would spark a huge boom; the boom didn’t happen, but the budget deficit exploded, offering an object lesson to those willing…
  • Links for 7-25-14

    Mark Thoma
    25 Jul 2014 | 12:06 am
    Devolution Number Nine - MaxSpeaks Obama’s uphill struggle against economic inequality - Larry Bartels Hazlitt, Keynes and the glazier’s fallacy - Crooked Timber Corporatism not capitalism is to blame for inequality - Edmund Phelps Why Voters Aren’t Angrier About Economic Inequality - NYTimes.com Vox’s Poor Measure of Food Affordability - Blog of the Century Employee satisfaction and firm value - vox The Slow Recovery Continues - Olivier Blanchard A Chinese Gold Standard? - NYTimes.com Three growth stages of the New Keynesian model - Nick Rowe ResearchGate - The Leisure of the Theory…
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    EconTalk

  • Continuing Conversation... Chris Blattman on Cash, Poverty, and Development

    Amy Willis
    23 Jul 2014 | 6:52 am
    Roberts returns to the topic of development this week in his conversation with Columbia's Chris Blattman, advocate of a radical approach to fighting poverty. Share YOUR thoughts on this week's episode...Join the conversation in the comments, or start your own offline. We love to hear from you! Check Your Knowledge: 1. Blattman emphasizes the importance of regular cash transfers, as opposed to one-time grants. What particular obstacle does he believe this will overcome, and to what extent do you agree with him? 2. Blattman asserts that despite their promise, cash transfers are still only a…
  • Chris Blattman on Cash, Poverty, and Development

    Russell Roberts
    21 Jul 2014 | 3:30 am
    Chris Blattman of Columbia University talks to EconTalk host Russ Roberts about a radical approach to fighting poverty in desperately poor countries: giving cash to aid recipients and allowing them to spend it as they please. Blattman shares his research and cautious optimism about giving cash and discusses how infusions of cash affect growth, educational outcomes, and political behavior (including violence). The conversation concludes with a discussion of the limits of aid and the some of the moral issues facing aid activists and researchers. Play Time: 1:11:04 How do I listen to a podcast?
  • D. G. Myers on Cancer, Dying, and Living

    Russell Roberts
    14 Jul 2014 | 3:30 am
    D.G. Myers, literary critic and cancer patient, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the lessons he has learned from receiving a cancer diagnosis six years ago. Myers emphasizes the importance of dealing with cancer honestly and using it as a way to focus attention on what matters in life. The conversation illuminates the essence of opportunity cost and the importance of allocating our time, perhaps our scarcest resource, wisely. The last part of the conversation discusses a number of literary issues including the role of English literature and creative writing in American…
  • Continuing Conversation... Michael Munger on the Sharing Economy

    Amy Willis
    8 Jul 2014 | 11:48 am
    This week, Russ welcomed back Mike Munger for his 26th appearance on EconTalk! Their topic of conversation- the rise of the sharing economy. We're interested in your experiences in the sharing economy, as well as your reaction to our Extra prompts this week. Respond to them here at EconTalk, start a conversation over dinner...it's up to you. As always, we love to hear from you. Check Your Knowledge: 1. Munger suggests there are (at least) three reasons why the sharing economy is, in fact, a big deal. What are these reasons? Which is the most (or least) persuasive, and why? 2. Roberts is very…
  • Michael Munger on the Sharing Economy

    Russell Roberts
    7 Jul 2014 | 3:30 am
    Mike Munger of Duke University talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the sharing economy--companies like Uber, AirBnB, FlightApp, and DogVacay that let people share their houses, cars, or other assets with strangers in exchange for money. These companies dramatically increase the use of resources that would otherwise be idle and disrupt existing services such as hotels and taxis. Topics discussed include the regulatory response to these companies, the politics of that response, and the significance of these new products. The conversation closes with the potential impact of Uber…
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    Environmental Economics

  • All environmentalists are idiots too*

    Tim Haab
    24 Jul 2014 | 7:45 am
    When I heard the phrase "Margarita Declaration" I had much higher (and drunker) hopes than 131 environmental groups banding together to call for an end to capitalism. A UN-backed conference on climate change ended with a call to end capitalism. The conference, organised by the Venezuelan government, saw 130 green activist groups meet to discuss their demands. Green website Respond to Climate Change says that at the end of the conference, the groups issued what is being called the 'Margarita Declaration', which says: "The structural causes of climate change are linked…
  • Is it ironic?

    John Whitehead
    24 Jul 2014 | 6:12 am
    I think so: Gov. Rick Perry of Texas and Senator James M. Inhofe of Oklahoma are among the most vocal Republican skeptics of the science that burning fossil fuels contributes to global warming, but a new study to be released Thursday found that their states would be among the biggest economic winners under a regulation proposed by President Obama to fight climate change. The study, conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Rhodium Group, both research organizations, concluded that the regulation would cut demand for electricity from coal — the nation’s…
  • In other words, all you climate change deniers should STFU

    Tim Haab
    22 Jul 2014 | 12:19 pm
    A new article in Nature: Climate Change says that the recent 15 year non-warming period is fully explained by climate models that account for El Nino and La Nina. The question of how climate model projections have tracked the actual evolution of global mean surface air temperature is important in establishing the credibility of their projections. Some studies and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report suggest that the recent 15-year period (1998–2012) provides evidence that models are overestimating current temperature evolution. Such comparisons are not evidence against model trends because they…
  • "Washington College Students Rally to Protect Cows From Global Warming"

    John Whitehead
    22 Jul 2014 | 5:49 am
    My favorite is 1% milk* with chocolate malt Ovaltine: A newly released report showing that higher temperatures cause cows to give less milk is uniting climate and animal rights activists to take immediate action to counteract the negative effects of bovine heat stress. “Cows are happy in parts of Northern California and not in Florida. That’s a good way to sum up the findings of my new research,” said University of Washington economist Rainbow Moonglow Rabinowitz. “A hot cow is a cranky cow, and a cranky cow gives less milk. So, in addition to fighting climate change, we must all…
  • 24 Update

    Tim Haab
    21 Jul 2014 | 10:02 am
    I know I've fallen behind on my 24 viewing for the season, but after this, I'm ready for the season to take some odd turns soon: The Tour de France can be unforgiving and crushingly heartbreaking. On Sunday's stage 15, Jack Bauer experienced this firsthand. Does Jack infiltrate the U.S. Postal team to stop a redeveloping EPO ring?  Does Lance Armstrong make a guest appearance as the evil ringleader? So many questions.
 
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    footnoted*

  • Irony alert: A One-Time Benefit That’s Actually Three Times

    Murti Bhattiprolu
    17 Jul 2014 | 8:03 am
    The irony that we often see in SEC filings may go largely unnoticed by most. But here at footnoted, we try to keep a close eye on that. Much of this we point out via our twitter feed (see here and here and here for a few recent examples). But this  8-K filed by Scansource a few days ago with news of renewed employment agreement for its top executives, set our irony-alert a-flutter. Take a close look at the disclosure related to CEO Michael Baur’s new employment agreement, especially the last sentence: “Mr. Baur’s Amended and Restated Employment Agreement provides for, among…
  • A downgrade to first class for ex-Ford CEO

    Michelle Leder
    16 Jul 2014 | 5:27 am
    Yesterday, Google announced that former Ford Motor Co. CEO Alan Mulally was joining its board and was appointed to the company’s audit committee. That news was widely covered, with much of the coverage focusing on Google’s quest for a driver-less car. Not included in much of the coverage, but part of the 8-K that Google filed yesterday was the additional disclosure that director K. Ram Shriram would be stepping down from the audit committee to make room for Mulally. But the thing that really caught our eye was the letter agreement attached to the 8-K spelling out the terms upon…
  • Actavis’ pre-holiday dump

    Murti Bhattiprolu
    7 Jul 2014 | 10:57 am
    It’s pretty rare for a holiday to fall on a Friday. But when it does, it makes the usually juicy “Friday Night Dump” seem like an over-cooked hot-dog. Once the markets closed on Thursday at 1 p.m., the filing floodgates opened wide: we counted 174 8-Ks filed after the markets closed on Thursday.  We’ve flagged a dozen of those for our footnotedPro subscribers. Still, one of the most surprising filings on Thursday was filed before the markets closed. This 8-K, which was filed by Actavis late Wednesday, became available first-thing Thursday morning and it nearly took…
  • Ralph Lauren serves up some beef

    Michelle Leder
    27 Jun 2014 | 11:27 am
    It’s no secret that Ralph Lauren (the man) has a fabulous ranch near Telluride, CO. The Double RL ranch has been mentioned in Ralph Lauren (the company’s) 10-Ks since 2010 and has been celebrated by the likes of Oprah, who in this 4+ minute video of her visit to the ranch, is positively bubbly. We mention this because in the proxy that Ralph Lauren Corp. filed yesterday, there was a new and interesting disclosure about that ranch near the bottom of pg. 88, that we doubt most people caught. Here’s the disclosure: In connection with our adoption of the “RRL” trademarks,…
  • Expeditors: just don’t call it a golden parachute!

    Murti Bhattiprolu
    17 Jun 2014 | 10:25 am
    When it comes to reading SEC filings, we have to admit that there’s few companies where we can honestly say that we enjoy — perhaps even look forward — to reading what they file with the SEC. Expeditors International is one of those companies. The first time we wrote about Expeditors, they were citing Sigmund Freud in an 8-K. Over the years, they’ve also mentioned dead frogs, John Denver’s Rocky Mountain High,  and the uselessness of the laws of the European Commission. Trust us, few companies are this entertaining when it comes to the filings. The 8-K that they…
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    Free exchange

  • Springtime for lenders

    Z.G. | LONDON
    25 Jul 2014 | 5:45 am
    AS ANY fruit enthusiast knows keeping track of the seasons is important. Looking for strawberries in winter or apples come the summer is bound to result in high prices, poor quality or both. Curiously, new research by Justin Murfin of Yale University and Mitchell Petersen from the Kellogg School of Management, suggests that the same is true of finance.They examined 30 years of corporate loans and found that the spread (or excess interest rate) that firms pay varied depending on when the debt was issued, with borrowing costs peaking in February and August. Credit is cheapest to…
  • Im-patent to innovate

    Z.G. | LONDON
    25 Jul 2014 | 4:26 am
    “IF I have seen further”, Isaac Newton once demurred, “it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants”. The process of invention has long been a cumulative one, in which incremental advances are made on previous innovations. However, a new NBER working paper* by Alberto Galasso of the Rotman School of Management and Mark Schankerman from the London School of Economics has found that the patent system is curtailing this tradition of progressive innovation.The authors quantify the impact of the patent system by measuring what happens when a patent is invalidated by the US…
  • Bigger, not better

    S.H. | LONDON
    25 Jul 2014 | 2:45 am
    WHO would have thought a couple of years ago that the British economy would be among the fastest-growing in the developed world? The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has just released its latest GDP estimates, which confirm its surprising revival: the UK has expanded for the sixth consecutive quarter. Overall, GDP is up by 0.8% compared to the first quarter of the year, or 3.2% on an annualised basis. Britain has now surpassed its previous peak in output, reached in the first quarter of 2008. But even though the economy is back to pre-crisis levels, many Britons still feel as if it…
  • Alibaba's maturity mismatch

    S.R. | HONG KONG
    24 Jul 2014 | 4:11 am
    WHEN Alibaba launched Yu’E Bao, an online investment fund, there was a flood of optimism that the e-commerce company would shake up the sclerotic Chinese banking sector. For a while it did just that. But its performance over the last quarter paints a more worrying picture: Yu’E Bao has ventured into far riskier territory. And despite courting more danger with its investments, its returns have suffered and its appeal has waned.Yu’E Bao, or “leftover treasure”, is barely a year old. Its growth has been stunning. Alibaba, which is set for a huge IPO in New York later this year, opened…
  • Signs of things to come

    R.A. | LONDON
    23 Jul 2014 | 5:28 am
    LOOKING backward, it is clear that American productivity growth has been pretty disappointing over the past 40 years, with the exception of an IT boomlet lasting from about 1996 to 2004. But past performance need not imply continued disappointment in future. The impressive gathering of innovative momentum in recent years is extraordinarily promising. And we are beginning to get a glimpse of the productivity potential of machine intelligence. A recent, fascinating Wired piece begins:It was one of the most tedious jobs on the internet. A team of Googlers would spend day after day…
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    Greg Mankiw's Blog

  • What makes a good economist?

    Greg Mankiw
    21 Jul 2014 | 10:35 am
  • Commodity Money

    Greg Mankiw
    14 Jul 2014 | 6:59 am
  • Some ACA Readings

    Greg Mankiw
    6 Jul 2014 | 5:49 am
    Kate Ho and Ariel PakesChuck BlahousJames Capretta 
  • NFF

    Greg Mankiw
    30 Jun 2014 | 3:37 am
    Sorry that I have been out of touch with regular blog readers.  I have moved to Nantucket for the summer, and the weather here has been too great to spend much time in front of a keyboard.  (The three best reasons to be a professor: June, July, and August.)The past few days I have been attending the Nantucket Film Festival.  I have had a chance to see some great movies before they are in general release.  Two are worth mentioning: Arlo and Julie, a small quirky comedy/mystery that is a bit Woody Allen-esque. Also, Happiness, a documentary about a boy and his family in…
  • The Saddest Chart I've Seen Today

    Greg Mankiw
    23 Jun 2014 | 1:11 pm
 
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    Hedge fund

  • Asset allocation

    Veryan Allen
    18 Jul 2014 | 4:08 pm
    Asset allocation does NOT drive portfolio returns. Static percentages also fail to consider changing opportunities and factors. Stock markets are usually either too cheap or euphorically overvalued. Valuation decides whether to be overweight equity or not. Does putting x% in "fixed income" make sense regardless of inflation or whether a bonds real yield is -2% or +5%. Asset class silos have no place in this dynamic, volatile, high frequency world. SKILL is what you need.Optimal asset allocation? It's easy to rigorously prove that for all forward looking scenarios, investors should…
  • High net worth

    Veryan Allen
    12 Jul 2014 | 5:05 am
    Mainly I work with institutional clients and very wealthy families. However good hedge funds are ideal for ALL investors. Proper hedge funds are LOWER risk than long only. Sadly the financial viruses of myopic herding, yield hunting and bull market amnesia are alive and well. Some people never learn. Get HEDGED before it's too late. Invest with the best. Why risk capital in passive funds that do NO analysis or due diligence? Skills are reliable, asset classes are not.1. Most hedge funds now focus on institutions. It is less total work to get one big client to give you $100 million than…
  • Low cost or low risk

    Veryan Allen
    11 Jul 2014 | 6:47 am
    Do you prefer low cost or low risk? Which matters - fees OR net returns and severity of losses? Which is cheaper - paying a few basis points for 50% drawdowns, vicious volatility and years below high water marks or 2 and 20 for consistent long term performance? I wouldn't invest in passive funds if Bogle PAID investors 3% a year. Too risky.Should we invest with dedicated, hard working managers that reduce volatility OR in a no work, unskilled speculative list of 500 stocks S&P likes, with no attention to valuation or risk? Which would a prudent man REALLY chose? 2 and 20 for smart…
  • Sports hedge fund

    Veryan Allen
    9 Jul 2014 | 4:39 am
    Skill doesn't exist? No such thing as talent and dedication? There are no above average people just lucky ones? Maybe Pelé, Jack Nicklaus, Michael Jordan, Wayne Gretzky, Babe Ruth and Donald Bradman were just lucky flukes like hedge fund managers Jim Simons, George Soros, Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham and Munehisa Honma?Sports hedge fund? Unlike stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities, sports results don't depend on the economy. Sports bets offer reliable arbitrages and mispricings like "efficient" financial markets. Most people bet on stocks or sports…
  • Long term investor

    Veryan Allen
    8 Jul 2014 | 4:08 pm
    Invest for the long haul? Short term volatility can't be ignored regardless of time horizon. The endowment model was seen as a "solution" but it was deeply flawed and overexposed to downturns. The risks David Swensen took were not justified by the returns generated. He should have achieved +30% CAGR for the high risks he took speculating with alumni donations.Swensen urges Mom and Pop into high risk "low cost" index funds while he gambles on illiquid leveraged beta. Most didn't see his obvious lack of strategy diversification and his mistaking of leveraged beta for alpha. Long term…
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    Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up

  • Okay FINRA, Who Had The Call From The FHFA?

    Jeff Matthews
    11 Jul 2014 | 6:38 am
     Last night at 4:05 PM E.S.T. the news hit Bloomberg that the Federal Housing Financing Agency was proposing an astoundingly, stupidly strict set of standards for private mortgage insurers who do business with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the net effect of which would be to reduce the availability of credit for home buyers at the very time that credit is needed to keep our economic recovery going. We are not here to explain the issue, only to point out to FINRA, the self-policing body in charge of sniffing out strange behavior in the public markets, the enormous--nay,…
  • Life in Wartime, or, One More Reason Why Companies Leave America

    Jeff Matthews
    17 Jun 2014 | 11:47 am
     These are the headlines on my Bloomberg for Annie's, the organic mac and cheese maker whose shares have fallen from unsustainable heights as the difficulties of running a public company while trying to meet the impatient quarterly targets of impatient quarterly-minded investors finally overcame the euphoria of a company that seemed to be in the right place at the right time. And this is one more reason why companies are leaving America. For the record, I like the new CFO (who helped flag the filing deficiencies) and would not bet against the company mending its ways. Nor…
  • Berkshire Hathaway: Beyond Buffett

    Jeff Matthews
    24 May 2014 | 11:00 am
    If this is failure, I want more of it.”—Charlie Munger “The only succession for Ajit Jain is reincarnation.”—Warren BuffettOmaha, Nebraska, May 3, 2014.It’s one year later, and I’m driving in pre-dawn darkness through downtown Omaha to the 2014 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, which, up until about a week ago, was looking like another cakewalk for Warren Buffett. After all, Berkshire’s net worth increased 18% in 2013, representing a staggering $34 billion jump in value.  And while, as some wet-blanket observers have pointed out, Berkshire’s 18% gain paled in…
  • The Score This Quarter: Citigroup 64, JP Morgan 56...IBM 19.

    Jeff Matthews
    27 Apr 2014 | 11:55 am
     Well IBM’s first quarter results are in, and they’re—well, they’re about what we’ve come to expect from a high-cost, brand name, big-iron tech company in a world moving to a low-cost, generic, small-iron model: revenues down, margins down, earnings down, cash flow down, service bookings way down, share buybacks up and layoffs soaring. Remarkably, though, one number—IBM’s earnings-per-share—came in exactly in line with what the company had predicted some 90 days ago, and that’s what Wall Street’s Finest really cared about, because it meant their spreadsheets were…
  • The Easy Thing About “The Hard Thing About Hard Things”

    Jeff Matthews
    12 Apr 2014 | 8:18 am
     The easy thing about “The Hard Thing About Hard Things,” Andreessen Horowitz co-founder Ben Horowitz’s book about “Building a business when there are no easy answers,” is reading it.  That’s because it’s funny, to-the-point, and way more well-informed by real-world experience than most books that give advice ever are.    Like the secret to being a successful CEO: “Sadly, there is no secret, but if there is one skill that stands out, it’s the ability to focus and make the best move when there are no good moves.” And, “Managers must lay…
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    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

  • Who's Winning the War in Ukraine? Answer May Shock You!

    26 Jul 2014 | 12:58 am
    Here's the question, not of the day, but of the month: Who's Winning the War in Ukraine?That may sound like a simple question, but it isn't. That question leads to a second question "In whose eyes?" It also depends on the definition of "war". And it also depends on the definition of "win". And finally it depends on which media source you believe.Military AspectFrom a military aspect, I have seen reports from both sides. The Western media portrays Ukraine on the march with the rebels surrounded, and losing ground. Is that accurate reporting?I will let you be the judge. Please consider this…
  • SBU Cleans Website of Bogus "Proof"; Mystery of 312 Grows

    25 Jul 2014 | 5:59 pm
    An image from the Security Service of Ukraine ("SBU") that purportedly showed a Buk heading back to Russia at nighttime, has now been removed from the site.I made a screenshot of the image and posted it in Ukraine Caught in Third Major Lie? Magic Number 312. The image once was at the bottom of this SBU page: Russia is trying to hide the evidence of his involvement in a terrorist attack in the skies over Ukraine.Here is the image I posted, now removed.CNN Complicit as Well?Shortly after the crash, CNN's Kyung Lah conducted an interview with Vitaly Nayda, Ukraine's Director of Informational…
  • France Unemployment New High, Output Down 15th Month; Prices Drop 27th Month; Activity Up in Peripheral Europe; Outlook for Germany

    25 Jul 2014 | 12:19 pm
    The grim economic news from France keeps piling up. Today, Europe Online reports Number of Unemployed in France Hits New High. The number of unemployed people in France has hit a new high as the country grapples with the fallout of the financial crisis and a sluggish eurozone recovery, the Labour Department reported Friday.At the end of June, there were 3.398 million people who were registered as being without a job in the eurozone‘s second-largest economy - 0.3 per cent more than in the previous month.Compared to June of last year, the number of jobless was up 4 per cent.In a glimmer of…
  • Obama Shenanigans on 'Factoryless' Exports, Taxes, Employment, Jobs

    24 Jul 2014 | 11:09 pm
    Corporate Deserters President Obama was beating the drums on Thursday in Los Angeles regarding corporate tax deserters, companies that move headquarters or tax shields to another country in order to escape high US tax rates.The LA Times provides the details in President Obama Hits 'Corporate Deserters' in Populist L.A. Speech. Tearing into companies he dubbed “corporate deserters,” President Obama on Thursday launched an election-year push to make it harder for U.S. companies to avoid paying taxes.Under a bright sun at a trade and technical college in Los Angeles, Obama issued a damning…
  • The Piece Fits; Debunking Revisited

    24 Jul 2014 | 5:31 pm
    It Fits  Reader Eric comments "It is amazing what internet, twitter, etc. has done for the pursuit of truth.  Here is an individual who shows where the piece fits on the plane."From @ErzaBraamThe PieceFor a report on the piece, please see Photo of MH17 Wreckage Proves Missile AttackContrary to popular belief this does not prove MH17 was brought down by a Buk. Rather, the image is consistent with a missile explosion from outside the plane, not a crash, and not a bomb exploding inside.The damage could be from a Buk, and is likely a Buk, but my understanding is that it could also be an…
 
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    Oddhead Blog

  • Microsoft Researchers co-authored 21% of papers at the ACM Conference on Economics and Computation

    David Pennock
    6 Jul 2014 | 12:00 pm
    Twenty-six researchers from Microsoft Research labs in Boston, China, India, Israel, New York City, Redmond, Silicon Valley, and the United Kingdom co-authored a remarkable seventeen of the eighty papers published in the 2014 ACM Conference on Economics and Computation (EC’14). Moshe Babaioff served as General Chair for the conference and many other Microsoft Researchers served roles including (senior) PC members, workshop organizers, and tutorial speakers. For research at the intersection of economics and computation, IMHO there’s no stronger “department” in the world…
  • Bernie’s Credo

    David Pennock
    22 Apr 2014 | 7:38 pm
    My dad died this morning, smiling up until the end. He was an amazing man and an incredible dad — a modern, sensitive, involved dad who was way ahead of his time — a model for me. I wrote about my Dad in 2010. At the end of his beautiful memoir (composed using Blurb) — a document I cherish — my dad wrote his “personal credo”. It not only is eloquent and profound (and references calculus), it really does reflect the way he lived his life every single day. Here it is: Be honest (always be truthful) Be kind (care about others) Be fair (judge others with care)…
  • Last call: Postdoc positions at Microsoft Research NYC

    David Pennock
    11 Jan 2013 | 8:57 am
    Microsoft Research New York City seeks outstanding applicants for 2-year postdoctoral researcher positions. We welcome applicants with a strong academic record in one of the following areas: Computational social science Online experimental social science Algorithmic economics and market design Machine learning We will also consider applicants in other focus areas of the lab, including information retrieval, and behavioral & empirical economics. Additional information about these areas is included below. Please submit all application materials by January 11, 2013 for full consideration.
  • A toast to the number 303: A redemptive election night for science, and The Signal

    David Pennock
    10 Nov 2012 | 1:19 pm
    The night of February 15, 2012, was an uncomfortable one for me. Not a natural talker, I was out of my element at a press dinner organized by Yahoo! with journalists from the New York Times, Fast Company, MIT Tech Review, Forbes, SF Chronicle, WIRED, Reuters, and several more [1]. Even worse, the reporters kept leading with, “wow, this must a big night for you, huh? You just called the election.” We were there to promote The Signal, a partnership between Yahoo! Research and Yahoo! News to put a quantitative lens on the election and beyond. The Signal was our data-driven antidote…
  • Raise your WiseQ to the 57th power

    David Pennock
    6 Oct 2012 | 5:46 am
    One of the few aspects of my job I enjoy more than designing a new market is actually building it. Turning some wild concept that sprung from the minds of a bunch of scientists into a working artifact is a huge rush, and I can only smile as people from around the world commence tinkering with the thing, often in ways I never expected. The “build it” phase of a research project, besides being a ton of fun, inevitably sheds important light back on the original design in a virtuous cycle. In that vein, I am thrilled to announce the beta launch of PredictWiseQ, a fully operational example of…
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    Overcoming Bias

  • Conflicting Abstractions

    Robin Hanson
    25 Jul 2014 | 3:45 am
    My last post seems an example of an interesting general situation: when abstractions from different fields conflict on certain topics. In the case of my last post, the topic was the relative growth rate feasible for a small project hoping to create superintelligence, and the abstractions that seem to conflict are the ones I use, mostly from economics, and abstractions drawn from computer practice and elsewhere used by Bostrom, Yudkowsky, and many other futurists. What typically happens when it seems that abstractions from field A suggests X, while abstraction from field B suggests not X?
  • I Still Don’t Get Foom

    Robin Hanson
    24 Jul 2014 | 1:45 pm
    Back in 2008 my ex-co-blogger Eliezer Yudkowsky and I discussed his “AI foom” concept, a discussion that we recently spun off into a book. I’ve heard for a while that Nick Bostrom was working on a book elaborating related ideas, and this week his Superintelligence was finally available to me to read, via Kindle. I’ve read it now, along with a few dozen reviews I’ve found online. Alas, only the two reviews on GoodReads even mention the big problem I have with one of his main premises, the same problem I’ve had with Yudkowsky’s views. Bostrom hardly mentions the issue in his 300…
  • Tegmark’s Vast Math

    Robin Hanson
    21 Jul 2014 | 7:15 am
    I recently had a surprise chance to meet Max Tegmark, and so I first quickly read his enjoyable new book The Mathematical Universe. It covers many foundations of physics topics that he correctly says are unfairly neglected. Since I’ve collected many opinions on foundation of physics over decades, I can’t resist mentioning the many ways I agree and disagree with him. Let me start with what Tegmark presents as his main point, which is that the total universe is BIG, almost as big as it could possibly be. There’s a vast universe out there that we can’t see, and will never see.
  • SciCast Pays Big Again

    Robin Hanson
    20 Jul 2014 | 7:00 am
    Back in May I said that while SciCast hadn’t previously been allowed to pay participants, we were finally running a four week experiment to reward random activities. That experiment paid big and showed big effects; we saw far more activity on days when we paid cash. In the next four weeks we’ll run another experiment that pays even more: SciCast is running a new special! For four weeks, you can win prizes on some days of the week: On Tuesdays, win a $25 Amazon gift card with activity. On Wednesdays, win an activity badge for your profile. On Thursdays, win a $25 Amazon gift card with…
  • Bets As Loyalty Signals

    Robin Hanson
    19 Jul 2014 | 12:30 pm
    Why do men give women engagement rings? A standard story is that a ring shows commitment; by paying a cost that one would lose if the marriage fails, one shows that one places a high value on the marriage. However, as a signal the ring has two problems. On the one hand, if the ring is easy to sell for its purchase price, then it detracts from the woman’s signal of the value she places on the marriage. Accepting a ring makes her look mercenary. On the other hand, if the ring can’t be sold for near its purchase price, and if the woman values the ring itself at less than its price, then the…
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    SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page

  • Orca Gold: A Well-Funded Gold Explorer With Huge Upside Potential

    26 Jul 2014 | 4:43 am
    By Hard Asset Investments: (Editor's Note: Investors should be mindful of the risks of transacting in illiquid securities such as CANWF. Orca Gold's Canadian listing, ORG.V, offers stronger liquidity.) Orca Gold (OTCPK:CANWF) is a company that I feel has flown under the radar for far too long. The company explores for gold in northern Sudan, near the border with Egpyt that forms part of the Arabian-Nubian Shield.Orca went public in April 9, 2013 after Canaco Resources Inc. completed the acquisition of Shark Minerals Inc. Following the acquisition, Canaca changed its name to Orca Gold and…
  • Carpenter Technology Ready For Demand And Free Cash Flow Growth

    26 Jul 2014 | 4:15 am
    By Stephen Simpson, CFA:Carpenter Technology (NYSE:CRS) has done alright since my December 13 write-up, climbing more than 22% but trailing Precision Castparts (NYSE:PCP) and Allegheny Technologies (NYSE:ATI) (while outperforming specialty alloy companies Universal Stainless (NASDAQ:USAP) and Haynes International (NASDAQ:HAYN)). There have been some challenges for the company as its major aerospace end market worked down inventories of engine parts and fasteners, but lead times are expanding, nickel prices are rising, and Carpenter is nearly finished with the addition (and customer…
  • Chipotle: One Overstuffed Burrito

    26 Jul 2014 | 4:00 am
    By Alpha Gen Capital:Chipotle's (NYSE:CMG) stock and business had a fantastic run over the last several years. This has occurred during a fairly lackluster recovery in the macroeconomic space. The stock is up 65% over the last year and 124% over the last two years. Over the last five years, the stock is up a whopping 600%! Chipotle trades at an astronomical 62x trailing-twelve-months earnings, with a PEG over 2.1x. However, we feel investors have not accurately assessed the long-run opportunity for the company while ignoring looming threats to the underlying business that are likely to slow…
  • How Has Herbalife Kept The Game Going For So Long?

    26 Jul 2014 | 3:47 am
    I had the pleasure of meeting the guy who writes under the handle Quoth the Raven last week when he came to New York City to see Ackman's presentation in person (I had no idea who he was prior to that - I just liked reading his stuff). He's a very smart investor with a good nose for fraud and deception (not just with Herbalife (NYSE:HLF) - see the other stuff he's written on this site) and he's really done his work on Herbalife - more than anyone I've seen outside of Pershing Sq. He published his magnum opus today entitled '24 Ways Herbalife Is Mocking The Regulators', which does an excellent…
  • Why Seagate Is A Buying Opportunity

    26 Jul 2014 | 2:53 am
    By Arie Goren:Although Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX) reported on July 17 results that were in line with expectations, its stock dropped 2.97% in the next trading day. The decline in the stock price came out even though on a conference call following the report Seagate management projected revenue for this quarter of $3.55 billion, above the consensus of $3.53 billion. However, since late 2011, STX's stock has been in a continuous strong uptrend. Since the start of 2012, STX's stock has gained an astounding 262.8% while the S&P 500 index has increased 57.3% and the Nasdaq Composite Index…
 
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • “An Experience with a Registered Replication Project”

    Andrew
    25 Jul 2014 | 6:52 am
    Anne Pier Salverda writes: I came across this blog entry, “An Experience with a Registered Replication Project,” and thought that you would find this interesting. It’s written by Simone Schnall, a social psychologist who is the first author of an oft-cited Psych Science(!) paper (“Cleanliness reduces the severity of moral judgments”) that a group of researchers from Michigan State failed to replicate as part of a big replication project. Schnall writes about her experience as the subject of a “failed recplication”. I like the tone of her blog entry.
  • If it was good enough for Martin Luther King and Laurence Tribe . . .

    Andrew
    24 Jul 2014 | 7:24 am
    People keep pointing me to this. P.S. I miss the old days when people would point me to bad graphs. The post If it was good enough for Martin Luther King and Laurence Tribe . . . appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • NFL players keep getting bigger and bigger

    Andrew
    24 Jul 2014 | 6:42 am
    Aleks points us to this beautiful dynamic graph by Noah Veltman showing the heights and weights of NFL players over time. The color is pretty but I think I’d prefer something simpler, just one dot per player (with some jittering to handle the discrete reporting of heights and weights). In any case, it’s a great graph. Click on the link to see it in action. P.S. Even better, once we move to a dynamic scatterplot, would be to use different colors for different positions, and to allow the reader of the graph to highlight different positions. On the linked page, Veltman writes,…
  • A world without statistics

    Andrew
    23 Jul 2014 | 6:49 am
    A reporter asked me for a quote regarding the importance of statistics. But, after thinking about it for a moment, I decided that statistics isn’t so important at all. A world without statistics wouldn’t be much different from the world we have now. What would be missing, in a world without statistics? Science would be pretty much ok. Newton didn’t need statistics for his theories of gravity, motion, and light, nor did Einstein need statistics for the theory of relativity. Thermodynamics and quantum mechanics are fundamentally statistical, but lots of progress could’ve…
  • Battle of the cozy comedians: What’s Alan Bennett’s problem with Stewart Lee?

    Andrew
    22 Jul 2014 | 6:41 am
    When in London awhile ago I picked up the book, “How I Escaped My Certain Fate: The Life and Deaths of a Stand-Up Comedian,” by Stewart Lee. I’d never heard of the guy but the book was sitting there, it had good blurbs, and from a quick flip-through it looked interesting. Now that I’ve read the whole thing, I can confirm that it really is interesting. I recommend it. Along with transcripts of some of his comedy routines—which aren’t particularly funny most of the time, at least not on the page—he has lots of discussion of what works and what…
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    Streetsblog New York City

  • NYC: The Citi Bike Deal Is Great News for Other Cities Too

    Ben Fried
    25 Jul 2014 | 2:03 pm
    Bay Area Bike Share, shown here in San Jose, is one of several systems that should be able to fulfill expansion plans quicker after REQX Ventures acquires a controlling stake in Alta Bicycle Share. Photo: Richard Masoner/Flickr Andrew Tangel at the Wall Street Journal had an encouraging update this week on the Citi Bike buyout plan first reported by Dana Rubinstein in Capital New York. It looks like the city is days away from announcing a deal in which REQX Ventures, an affiliate of the Related Companies and its Equinox unit, will buy out Alta Bicycle Share, the company that operates Citi…
  • NYC: One Mindblowing Fact Missing From BuzzFeed’s Port Authority Listicle

    Stephen Miller
    25 Jul 2014 | 10:46 am
    Earlier this week, BuzzFeed gleaned some fun facts about the Hudson River bridges and tunnels from a Port Authority data dump on the number of eastbound automobiles, buses, and trucks. If you took the numbers at face value, you might be left with the impression that cars are the most important thing moving around New York. But when you measure people instead of vehicles, the numbers look quite different. BuzzFeed’s John Templon started off the nine-point listicle with a breakdown of vehicle traffic on the Port’s crossings: 1. It’s almost all cars. Automobile traffic…
  • NYC: No Homicide Charge for Unlicensed Curb-Jumping Driver Who Killed SI Woman

    Brad Aaron
    25 Jul 2014 | 8:39 am
    A motorist who crashed on a Staten Island sidewalk was charged by District Attorney Dan Donovan with driving without a license and drug possession, but not for killing one pedestrian and hospitalizing another. Christal Aliotta. Photo via SI Advance On the afternoon of June 9, a motorist jumped the curb and hit 31-year-old Christal Aliotta and her 20-year-old cousin Stephanie Canecchio as they walked along Hylan Boulevard at Cleveland Avenue in Great Kills. Aliotta, the mother of two young daughters, died at the scene. She was struck after reportedly pushing her cousin out of the…
  • NYC: Today’s Headlines

    Stephen Miller
    25 Jul 2014 | 5:57 am
    There’s a $12 Billion Shortfall in the Next MTA Capital Plan (Crain’s, CapTon, CapNY) The Times Looks at Traffic Safety in the Wake of Vigil for Jean Chambers Bicyclist Critically Injured by MTA Bus Driver at 62nd and Madison (DNA, Post, Gothamist) Cap’n Transit: Turn a Car Lane on the Brooklyn Bridge Into a Two-Way Bike Lane Bill From Kallos and Brewer Would Codify CB Notification of Yet More DOT Work (News) Five-Week G Train Shutdown Begins Tonight as G’Point Ferry Awaits Repairs (NYT, Bklyn Paper) Greenfield Fights for More Parking in Midwood Office and Retail…
  • NYC: Affordable Bus and Subway Fares Are Still Worth Fighting For

    John Petro
    24 Jul 2014 | 11:14 am
    Photo: Infinite Jeff via Flickr creative commons When the MTA introduced the 30-day unlimited-ride MetroCard in 1998, it cost $63. Today the cost of the 30-day pass is up to $112, a 77 percent increase. Over that time the base subway and bus fare doubled, from $1.25 to $2.50. Meanwhile, wage growth has lagged. The average wage in the five boroughs increased only 54 percent from 1998 to 2012 (the latest year we have data). We know that most of these wage gains went to the city’s wealthiest earners, whereas wages for the middle class have stagnated or declined. For the vast majority of New…
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    The Big Picture

  • 10 Weekend Reads

    Barry Ritholtz
    26 Jul 2014 | 4:00 am
    Welcome to the weekend. Pour a cup of coffee, settle into your favorite chair, and enjoy our longer form reads: • Billion-Dollar Billy Beane (FiveThirtyEight) • Don’t tell anybody this story on HFT power jump trading (Bloomberg) • Soaring student debt sparks response from Catholic colleges (Catholic News Agency) • If you can’t choose wisely, pick at random (Aeon) • We Work: A Secret History of the Workplace (The Minnesota Review) see also Post-its, push pins, pencils: In the stationary cupboard (LRB) • What the Hobby Lobby Ruling Means for America (NY Times) • The…
  • Reputation and Liquidity Traps

    Guest Author
    26 Jul 2014 | 2:00 am
  • Succinct Summations of Week Events 7.25.14

    Barry Ritholtz
    25 Jul 2014 | 1:00 pm
    Succinct Summations week ending July 25th 2014 Positives: 1. S&P 500 made a new all-time highs. 2. US Initial jobless claims came in at 284k well below the 307k expected and the lowest reading since February ‘06. 3. Existing home sales came in at 5.04M annualized, better than expected. May numbers were also revised higher. 4. European July manufacturing rose to 54, a 3-month high and above expectations. 5. AAII showed the fewest bulls since early May, healthy to shake out the weak hands. 6. June CPI rose .3% core rose .1%, in line with expectations. 7. German consumer confidence rose to…
  • Marijuana Laws by State in USA

    Barry Ritholtz
    25 Jul 2014 | 10:30 am
    Source: Vox
  • 10 Friday AM Reads

    Barry Ritholtz
    25 Jul 2014 | 7:30 am
    My morning train reads (continues here): • Charts that leave you no choice but to feel optimistic about the US economy (Quartz) • Corn farmers face a cash crunch (WSJ) but see Why is chocolate getting so expensive? (Slate) • Why Do Americans Stink at Math? (NY Times) see also Deficit scolds are the most crazed ideologues in America (The Week) • Corporatism not capitalism is to blame for inequality (FT) Continues here      
 
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    The Epicurean Dealmaker

  • Shine On, You Crazy Diamond

    13 Jul 2014 | 9:21 am
    Claudio: “Benedick, didst thou note the daughter of Signior Leonato?”Benedick: “I noted her not; but I looked on her.”Claudio: “Is she not a modest young lady?”Benedick: “Do you question me, as an honest man should do, for my simple true judgment; or would you have me speak after my custom, as being a professed tyrant to their sex?”Claudio: “No; I pray thee speak in sober judgment.”Benedick: “Why, i’ faith, methinks she’s too low for a high praise, too brown for a fair praise, and too little for a great praise; only this commendation I can afford her, that were she…
  • You Go First

    7 Jul 2014 | 7:48 am
    Don’t shit where you eat.— AnonymousWay back in the Dark Ages of Investment Banking, O Dearly Beloved—say in the 1970s or 1980s, before Your Humble Correspondent embedded himself in the front lines of global financial conflict—somebody or other decided in their infinite wisdom that new recruits to my industry out of college should, as a matter of policy, be hired for two-year stints only. After this period expired, they were thanked for their troubles, given a celebratory fruit basket or somesuch, and politely shown the door. A tiny minority of very strong promise were sometimes…
  • Touring Test

    29 Jun 2014 | 2:24 pm
    BBC Interviewer: “HAL, you have an enormous responsibility on this mission, in many ways perhaps the greatest responsibility of any single mission element. You’re the brain and central nervous system of the ship, and your responsibilities include watching over the men in hibernation. Does this ever cause you any lack of confidence?”HAL: “Let me put it this way, Mr. Amor. The 9000 series is the most reliable computer ever made. No 9000 computer has ever made a mistake or distorted information. We are all, by any practical definition of the words, foolproof and incapable of error.”BBC…
  • In Memoriam: June 6, 1944

    7 Jun 2014 | 5:39 pm
    Claude Monet, Haystacks at Chailly at Sunrise, 1865What passing-bells for these who die as cattle?— Only the monstrous anger of the guns.Only the stuttering rifles’ rapid rattleCan patter out their hasty orisons.No mockeries now for them; no prayers nor bells; Nor any voice of mourning save the choirs,—The shrill, demented choirs of wailing shells;And bugles calling for them from sad shires.What candles may be held to speed them all?Not in the hands of boys, but in their eyesShall shine the holy glimmers of goodbyes.The pallor of girls’ brows shall be their pall;Their flowers the…
  • Short Cuts

    18 May 2014 | 8:20 am
    The narrative arc of the universe is long, and it bends toward expropriation.— Yours TrulyI.Scene: Two weeks ago, Your Faithful Bloggist took exception to two paragraphs buried deep within a review of Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century by prolific economist Tyler Cowen. Said economist objected to my exception, dismissing it, in large part, as indicative of faulty framing of the underlying issue. Said YFB replied shortly thereafter, dismissing Cowen’s dismissal in turn as a bull-headed, tone deaf, and lazily written mischaracterization of my remarks. To date, Herr…
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    VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

  • New thinking on reserve-currency status

    25 Jul 2014 | 5:00 pm
    Linda Goldberg, Signe Krogstrup, John Lipsky, Hélène Rey, 26 July 2014The dollar’s dominant role in international trade and finance has proved remarkably resilient. This column argues that financial stability – and the policy and institutional frameworks that underpin it – are important new determinants of currencies’ international roles. While old drivers still matter, progress achieved on financial-stability reforms in major currency areas will greatly influence the future roles of their currencies.Full Article: New thinking on reserve-currency status
  • SMEs lending: ‘Relationship lending’ vs arm’s length

    24 Jul 2014 | 5:00 pm
    Thorsten Beck, Ralph De Haas, Hans Degryse, Neeltje van Horen, 25 July 2014The small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) were among the most severely affected in the Global Crisis. This column discusses new evidence on how different lending techniques affect lending in bad and good times. Data from 21 countries in central and eastern Europe show that ‘relationship lending’ alleviates credit constraints during a cyclical downturn but not during a boom period. The positive impact of relationship lending in an economic downturn is strongest for smaller and more opaque firms and in regions…
  • Employee satisfaction and firm value

    24 Jul 2014 | 5:00 pm
    Alex Edmans, 25 July 2014Happy workers might well be more productive than unhappy ones, but high worker satisfaction could also be a sign that workers are overpaid or underworked. This column examines the link between worker satisfaction and future stock returns in 14 countries. In most but not all countries, employee satisfaction is associated with higher future stock returns. Abnormal returns to companies with high worker satisfaction are significantly increasing in the flexibility of their countries’ labour markets.Full Article: Employee satisfaction and firm value
  • Inequality in big cities

    23 Jul 2014 | 5:00 pm
    Kristian Behrens, Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 24 July 2014Large cities are more unequal than the nations that host them. This column argues that this is because large cities disproportionately reward talented superstars and disproportionately ‘fail’ the least talented. Cities should thus be the primary focus of policies to reduce inequality and its adverse consequences for society.Full Article: Inequality in big cities
  • Sticky prices and behavioural indifference curves

    23 Jul 2014 | 5:00 pm
    John Komlos, 24 July 2014Many quantities fail to respond smoothly to price changes. This column stresses that the ‘endowment effect’ – a well-known behavioural economics concept – implies kinks in indifference curves at the current consumption bundle price. Such kinks may account for the stickiness of prices, wages, and interest rates.Full Article: Sticky prices and behavioural indifference curves
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    OUPblog

  • How I created the languages of Dothraki and Valyrian for Game of Thrones

    Julia Callaway
    26 Jul 2014 | 3:30 am
    By David J. Peterson My name is David Peterson, and I’m a conlanger. “What’s a conlanger,” you may ask? Thanks to the recent addition of the word “conlang” to the Oxford English Dictionary (OED), I can now say, “Look it up!” But to save you the trouble, a conlanger is a constructed language (or conlang) maker — i.e. one who creates languages. Language creation has been around since at least the 12th century, when the German abbess Hildegard von Bingen created her Lingua Ignota — Latin for “hidden language” — an invented vocabulary she used for writing…
  • The month that changed the world: Sunday, 26 July 1914

    Kirsty
    26 Jul 2014 | 12:30 am
    July 1914 was the month that changed the world. On 28 June 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated, and just five weeks later the Great Powers of Europe were at war. But how did it all happen? Historian Gordon Martel, author of The Month That Changed The World: July 1914, is blogging regularly for us over the next few weeks, giving us a week-by-week and day-by-day account of the events that led up to the First World War. By Gordon Martel When day dawned on Sunday, 26 July, the sky did not fall. Shells did not rain down on Belgrade. There was no Austrian declaration of war. The morning…
  • The month that changed the world: Saturday, 25 July 1914

    Kirsty
    25 Jul 2014 | 5:30 am
    July 1914 was the month that changed the world. On 28 June 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated, and just five weeks later the Great Powers of Europe were at war. But how did it all happen? Historian Gordon Martel, author of The Month That Changed The World: July 1914, is blogging regularly for us over the next few weeks, giving us a week-by-week and day-by-day account of the events that led up to the First World War. By Gordon Martel Would there be war by the end of the day? It certainly seemed possible: the Serbs had only until 6 p.m. to accept the Austrian demands. Berchtold had…
  • Re-thinking the role of the regional oral history organization

    Alice
    25 Jul 2014 | 4:30 am
    By Jason Steinhauer Jason Steinhauer. Photo by Amanda ReynoldsWhat is the role of a regional oral history organization? The Board of Officers of Oral History in the Mid-Atlantic Region (OHMAR) recently wrestled with this question over the course of a year-long strategic planning process. Our organization had reached an inflection point. New technologies, shifting member expectations and changing demographics compelled us to re-think our direction. What could we offer new and existing members that local or national organizations did not —and how would we offer it? Our strategic planning…
  • Microbes matter

    Hannah Paget
    25 Jul 2014 | 3:30 am
    By John Archibald We humans have a love-hate relationship with bugs. I’m not talking about insects — although many of us cringe at the thought of them too — but rather the bugs we can’t see, the ones that make us sick. Sure, microorganisms give us beer, wine, cheese, and yoghurt; hardly a day goes by without most people consuming food or drink produced by microbial fermentation. And we put microbes to good use in the laboratory, as vehicles for the production of insulin and other life-saving drugs, for example. But microbes are also responsible for much of what ails us, from annoying…
 
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    Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

  • Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    26 Jul 2014 | 3:34 am
    (Don Boudreaux) …from page 61 of David Mamet’s 2011 book, The Secret Knowledge (original emphasis): Hayek calls this utopian vision The Road to Serfdom.  And we see it in operation here, as we are in the process of choosing, as a society, between Liberty – the freedom from the State to pursue happiness, and a supposed but impossible Equality, which, as it could only be brought about by a State capable and empowered to function in all facets of life, means totalitarianism and eventual dictatorship.
  • Some Links

    Don Boudreaux
    25 Jul 2014 | 6:57 am
    (Don Boudreaux) Cato’s David Boaz takes E.J. Dionne to task for carelessly and myopically – and ideologically blindly – criticizing the Halbig decision.  A slice: Third, I wonder if E. J. Dionne Jr. really wants a judiciary that rolls over for the political branches, whether legislative or executive. Does he believe that the Warren Court should not have struck down school segregation, which was clearly the will of the people’s elected representatives–and no doubt the people–in Kansas, as well as in South Carolina and Virginia, whose similar cases were combined…
  • Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    25 Jul 2014 | 4:45 am
    (Don Boudreaux) … is from page 52 of the 1987 Liberty Fund edition of Helmut Schoeck’s excellent 1966 volume, Envy; it occurs in a section of the book where Schoeck discusses the practice of many primitive peoples to use black magic against those whose positions and possessions they envied: The false premise that one man’s gain necessarily involves the others’ loss is still indulged in by some modern economic theorists; while these do not make use of black magic, they often have recourse to methods no less absurd, such as, for instance, a special kind of tax which ends up by…
  • Diktats are Not Rules

    Don Boudreaux
    24 Jul 2014 | 6:13 am
    (Don Boudreaux) Here’s a letter to the Wall Street Journal: Pleading for punitive taxes on Americans who buy imported steel, Thomas Gibson of the American Iron and Steel Institute insists that we all should follow the rules of trade (Letters, July 24).  Mr. Gibson is right about following rules, but his interpretation of those rules is fundamentally flawed. The most foundational rule of trade is that consumers get to spend their money as they see fit and, hence, that only those producers who best satisfy consumers (as judged exclusively by consumers) get to stay in business. …
  • Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    24 Jul 2014 | 4:32 am
    (Don Boudreaux) … is from page 118 of H.L. Mencken’s, A Second Mencken Chrestomathy (1995); specifically, it’s reprinted from a piece that Mencken wrote for the June 1920 Smart Set: It is not materialism that is the chief curse of the world, but idealism.  Men get into trouble by taking all their gaudy visions and hallucinations seriously. I would amend the above nugget of indispensable wisdom only by pointing out that there is good idealism, one that projects no gaudy visions or hallucinations because it is grounded in realism about human nature and, hence, recognizes the limits…
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    Dollars & Sense Blog

  • Piketty’s Model of Inequality and Growth in Historical Context, Pt 2

    Polly Cleveland
    23 Jul 2014 | 11:15 am
    Part II: The Neoclassical Response to the Classical Theories of Inequality and Growth Mason Gaffney has shown how many individuals helped construct neoclassical economics, often with financial support from the robber barons and their successors. I will focus on two: in the United States, John Bates Clark (1847-1938), and in Europe, Vilfredo Pareto (1848 to 1923). Recall from Part I that the classical economists divided society into three classes: Owners of land and other natural resources received unearned income or “rent” from their holdings—often derived from conquest or inheritance.
  • The Supreme Court’s Supremely Inconsistent Same-Day Decisions

    Ron Baiman
    17 Jul 2014 | 1:02 pm
    Originally posted at the website of the Chicago Political Economy Group (CPEG). Let me get this right. An association of people with an elected leadership with no direct authority over its members whose primary purpose (which its members get to vote on) is to benefit its members, is so potentially oppressive to its members that they have the right to not pay the association for any its benefits (like more than doubling their wages in the last 12 years even as the association is required by law to provide these benefits to them. However, an association of people with unelected…
  • Piketty’s Model of Inequality and Growth in Historical Context, Pt 1

    Polly Cleveland
    15 Jul 2014 | 12:27 pm
    The first economic model: François Quesnay’s Tableau Économique In Thomas Piketty’s doomsday model, slowing of growth in the twenty-first century will cause an inexorable increase in inequality. Piketty is not the first to propose a grand model of inequality and growth. To get some perspective on his model, let’s see what the “classical” economists had to say (Part I), and how the “neoclassical” economists responded (Part II). Part 1. The Classical Economists on Inequality and Growth The first generation of “classical” economists, notably Francois Quesnay (1694-1774)…
  • Monday Links

    Chris Sturr
    14 Jul 2014 | 2:01 pm
    (1) Esther Kaplan, Losing Sparta: the Bitter Truth Behind the Gospel of Productivity.  This is a must-read piece that came out last week in the Virginia Quarterly Review.  Yves Smith wrote about it at Naked Capitalism last week, and Doug Henwood did an (as-usual) terrific interview with the author on his radio show, Behind the News. It is the story of a state-of-the-art manufacturing plant in Sparta, Tenn., and how the Dutch multinational corporation Philips shut the plant down and moved production to Monterrey, Mexico, even though (as Kaplan documents) the company probably lost market…
  • The Euro “Recovery” in Real Time (in Case You Missed It)

    John F. Weeks
    11 Jul 2014 | 11:35 am
    If you read the Financial Times on 2 May, you learned that at long last recovery gathered pace among the countries of the eurozone, “the eurozone’s recovery is spreading from the bloc’s core to its periphery”.  This merely confirmed the intrepid prediction a month earlier of a certain Patrick Chovanec of a financial outfit named Silvercrest Asset Management, “The recovery in Europe is real, and will likely continue and strengthen.” It may be wise to avoid this source for your asset management, because two months later in the same newspaper you discovered that the spread of euro…
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    Japan Economy Watch

  • Japan Inflation At A 32 Year High?

    Edward Hugh
    29 Jun 2014 | 12:23 pm
    Just in case anyone was in any doubt last weeks newspaper  headlines blared it out for us loud and clear - Japanese inflation is back, and has even hit levels last seen in 1982. (Click on image below for better viewing). In fact consumer prices in Japan rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in May according to the Bank of Japan's preferred measure, driven higher from one month to another by the
  • Will Japan Re-enter Deflation in April 2015?

    Edward Hugh
    20 Jun 2014 | 3:20 am
    Reading the most recent statements from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda or Finance Minister Taro Aso you would get the impression that the days of deflation are now well and truly numbered in Japan. Martin Schulz, economist at Fujitsu Research Institute in Tokyo, goes even further. “Deflation is over in Japan,” he told Bloomberg Television First Up’s Angie Lau . Even Japan’s industrial
  • The Growing Mess Which Will Be Left Behind By The Abenomics Experiment

    Edward Hugh
    2 Mar 2014 | 3:30 am
    According to wikipedia, "overdetermination is a phenomenon whereby a single observed effect is determined by multiple causes at once, any one of which alone might be enough to account for ("determine") the effect.That is, there are more causes present than are necessary to generate the effect".  In this strictly technical sense Japan's deflation problem is overdetermined - there are multiple
  • The Real Experiment That Is Being Carried Out In Japan

    Edward Hugh
    13 May 2013 | 9:06 am
    The future never resembles the past - as we well know. But, generally speaking, our imagination and our knowledge are too weak to tell us what particular changes to expect. We do not know what the future holds. Nevertheless, as living and moving beings, we are forced to act. - John Maynard Keynes Discussions of the population problem have always had the capacity to stir up public sentiment much
  • The A-b-e Of Economics

    Edward Hugh
    1 May 2013 | 11:02 am
    And the world said "Let Shinzo Abe be", and all was light. A new craze is sweeping the planet. Known by the title "Abenomics" over the last couple of years it has been steadily gathering adepts in financial markets across the globe. Despite the fact Abe's move fits comfortably within the austerity vs growth policy axis, at the heart of the new approach lies not a strategy to directly create
 
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    Blockindicator of Solar Green Energy Growth

  • The Audience And The Search Engine Indexing

    block
    3 Jul 2014 | 7:13 am
    At present, social media sites is considered a part of everyone’s lives. In fact, two-thirds of people make use of social websites to obtain in touch with loved ones while the rest say they get in touch with pals they haven’t seen for several years. Social network sites such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube are utilized as methods by big companies. According to study, 95 percent of respondents select Facebook as top social media platform. Using social media as part of the advertising method of companies, Search Engine Optimization or SEO is likewise a fantastic platform to achieve…
  • Analyze Web Methods And Techniques

    block
    3 Jul 2014 | 5:11 am
    The bottom line about “free web site marketing offers” is that ‘nothing is really ever complimentary’. Any individual or entity or company that does not imagine spending income to promote their website will have to remember that substantial time will certainly have to be invested, if cash is to be conserved. Find the very best and standard Search Engine Optimization policies and methods that can drive online interest and queries to your web site and increase page rankings on the Web. The easy suggestion to keep in mind right here is that text consisted of in the ALT…
  • What To Do When Charged With A Criminal Offense?

    block
    9 Jun 2014 | 4:14 am
    Being charged with a major crime is a frightening and demanding situation. It can threaten your liberty and every aspect of your life. If you have actually been charged with a crime you will need an excellent criminal attorney to safeguard you and guarantee your rights are shielded under the law. Looking for counsel from a good lawyer who specialises in criminal matters is the very first step you should take as quickly as you have been charged. There are a variety of means you can discover the ideal lawyer for you. This article gives you suggestions on what to do. When you are charged,…
  • Locked Out From Home Prevention Tips

    block
    5 Jun 2014 | 4:26 am
    Getting locked out is never fun. We have all been there a minimum of once in our lives. The locksmiths I’m talking for this post are for houses, and even particular types of companies. It’s easy to run out of your house or company rapidly, and close a locked door. All of us survive a schedule and get behind from time to time. We cut corners occasionally to save time one way or another. Getting locked out occurs. Lots of people park in their garages so the entryway to our home is normally limited to the door into our home from the garage. Being a locksmith, I’ve even seen…
  • The Right Electrician For Your Specific Household Needs

    block
    14 May 2014 | 7:45 am
    An electrician’s service is constantly being extremely sought after on a daily basis. Everyone needs the services of a certified electrician whether it is in a home environment or a more complicated electrical scenario within bigger locations like a company properties. It is not constantly possible to discover the finest person for the job, however taking some time to make a collective effort to do so, is always willing to be the very best method to start. Finding the right electricians in a domestic city is not a very tough task to carry out. Ideally, keeping an eye out for certain…
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    Credit Slips

  • You Say Poignant, I Say Depressing

    Mark Weidemaier
    25 Jul 2014 | 11:37 am
    As Anna points out, there are indeed moments of poignancy in the pari passu litigation, largely having to do with the fact that, days from a major sovereign default induced in no small part by their rulings, the US courts only now seem to be discovering basic facts about the case. The transcript of the most recent hearing before the district court contains passages that might have been appropriate two years ago, but are depressing to encounter now. For example, the court was initially willing to let Citibank Argentina pass along payments it received on USD-denominated, Argentine-law bonds,…
  • Pari Passu Poignancy

    Anna Gelpern
    24 Jul 2014 | 9:53 pm
    It is too easy to miss poignant moments in the news avalanche of Argentina debt litigation. Here is one from Judge Griesa's monologue at the July 22 hearing: I can't remember whether it was 2010 or 2011, but thereabouts, the attorneys for the plaintiffs requested the Court to recognize a provision which had been in the contractual documents all along but had not been relied on, and that is the pari passu provisions, essentially meaning if the republic paid certain kinds of debts, there had to be a recognition -- and I'm not trying to get into the arithmetic -- there had to…
  • Once More, With ... Something

    Stephen Lubben
    24 Jul 2014 | 5:57 pm
    So we are again treated to what has become an annual tradition:  the analysis of Dodd-Frank on its anniversary.  The Republicans trot out a report critical of the Act, and the Democrats defend it.  Yawn. Actually, this year the Republican report is not half bad.  Sure it contains the usual rubbish about the Community Reinvestment Act, which really had nothing to do with the crisis. But in many respects, it raises good points and real concerns about whether Dodd-Frank actually solved the "too big to fail" problem, and whether regulators got off too easy by saying they needed new…
  • Argentina: The RUFO Crazy

    Anna Gelpern
    22 Jul 2014 | 11:26 pm
    Kudos to Joseph Cotterill at FTAlphaville for an excellent post on the obsession with the Rights-Upon-Future-Offers (RUFO) clause in Argentina's restructured bonds, which seems to be driving Argentina to a payment default on those very bonds. Judge Griesa is not buying it, though --  at a hearing on July 22, he again denied the Republic's request for a stay of his orders blocking restructured bond payments, unless Argentina pays the holdouts pro rata. He also deferred the hugely consequential decisions on paying creditors under English and Argentine-law bonds; that mess is for…
  • In Tribute to Dan Markel

    Bob Lawless
    20 Jul 2014 | 3:50 pm
    On behalf of everyone at Credit Slips, I want to express our profound sadness at hearing of the tragic and untimely passing of Professor Dan Markel. a professor of law at Florida State University and a prominent criminal law theorist. Dan was the founder of PrawfsBlawg and a leader in the legal blogosphere. May his family and friends take some small comfort in knowing how Dan was considered a leader in his discipline. His colleagues at PrawfsBlawg have a tribute with comments from many persons who knew, worked with and learned from Dan.
 
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    The Aleph Blog

  • Balancing Quality Against Valuation

    David Merkel
    25 Jul 2014 | 9:55 pm
    A letter from a reader:Hi David,I am XXX, from India. I started reading your blog since few months. Few of the things i learnt, and much more are really complex for me to understand, the learning is ON.Somehow i decided that ” being good value investor and control the behaviour” is a gift of long practice and learning. So it takes time and for me the learning is still in lower phase. I am in middle of understanding Financial statements.But before that i want to invest and enjoy the power of compounding. Till now i used Mutual Fund, Fixed Deposit (bank) for my wealth creation. As…
  • Book Review: Panic, Prosperity, and Progress

    David Merkel
    24 Jul 2014 | 10:03 pm
    I love economic history books, and I believe that most investors should read economic history.  History offers a broader paradigm for analyzing investment situations than mathematical models do.Mark Twain is overquoted on this, but only because he deserves to be quoted: “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.”You can get a lot of insights into the present by reading this book.  So many disasters occurred because people presumed that the future would be much like the past, and they ended up being the ones that took the large losses.Further, this book will point out that…
  • Book Review: Reducing the Risk of Black Swans

    David Merkel
    23 Jul 2014 | 10:46 pm
    This is a very short book. I read the whole thing in 40 minutes.  It has one main idea: what if you could create a less variable portfolio that returns as much as the traditional 60% S&P 500, 40% Barclays Aggregate blend?  Wouldn’t you want that?Most of us would want that.  I would want earning more at the same level of volatility as the market, but that is another matter.The authors take us through a variety of backtests, showing us portfolios that did well in the past, if you had invested in them.They show how investors could have done better by tilting their portfolios…
  • Understanding Insurance Float

    David Merkel
    22 Jul 2014 | 10:26 pm
    Warren Buffett has made such an impression on value investors and insurance investors, that they think that float is magic.  Write insurance, gain float, invest cleverly against the float, and make tons of money.Now, the insurance industry in general has been a great place to invest, but we need to think about float differently.  Float is composed of two things: claim reserves and premium reserves.Claim reserves are the assets set aside to satisfy all claims that likely will be made as of the current date.Premium reserves are the assets set aside representing prepaid premiums that have…
  • On Berkshire Hathaway and Asbestos

    David Merkel
    21 Jul 2014 | 10:43 pm
    Recently, a friend of mine from Canada came to stay with me.  We talked about a wide number of things, but when we talked about investing, I described insurance investing to him, giving my usual explanation on reserving.Classical life insurance reserves are a science.  Death happens with regularity, it is only a question of when.  Short-tail P&C, health, etc, are almost a science — the claims come quickly, and the reserves get adjusted rapidly.  Long-tail Casualty and Liability is a dark art at best.  Mortgage, financial, and title insurance reserving is not even an art;…
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    Quoting the Crisis

  • The Founding Fathers backed Thomas Piketty – and feared a...

    6 Jul 2014 | 12:42 am
    The Founding Fathers backed Thomas Piketty – and feared a powerful 1 percent Joseph Blasi, salon.com This 4th of July, remember the truth about founding fathers, and their prescient warnings about income inequalityMany of Amer­i­ca’s Founders believed that exces­sive wealth inequal­i­ty would be incom­pat­i­ble with hav­ing a rep­re­sen­ta­tiv…
  • More U.S. Parents Tell College-Age Children: You’re on Your Own

    6 Jul 2014 | 12:32 am
    More U.S. Parents Tell College-Age Children: You’re on Your Own: Andrew O’Connell, hbr.org American parents are more likely now than in recent years to say that their children should pay for college: The proportion of adults saying their offspring should pay for most college costs rose from 27% to 32% over the past two yea…
  • The next great financial crash: How our corporate overlords are...

    6 Jul 2014 | 12:20 am
    The next great financial crash: How our corporate overlords are setting us up to fail (again) Thom Hartmann, AlterNet, salon.com While profits soar, wages continue to stagnate and anti-tax zealots gut the safety net — a recipe for disasterThe denial of fun­da­men­tal eco­nom­ic prin­ci­ples is set­ting the world up for anoth­er Great Crash.Although wages have been fla…
  • Ronald Reagan stuck it to millennials: A college debt history...

    6 Jul 2014 | 12:02 am
    Ronald Reagan stuck it to millennials: A college debt history lesson no one tells Peter Lunenfeld, salon.com Dramatic, awful changes occurred on my generation’s watch — and it amounts to a fiendishly successful conspiracyThat nos­tal­gic time of year for newly mint­ed col­lege grads and their pro­fes­sors has now con­clud­ed. I admit to being affect­…
  • Best-paid CEOs perform the worst Cory Doctorow,...

    19 Jun 2014 | 1:32 pm
    Best-paid CEOs perform the worst Cory Doctorow, boingboing.net In Per­for­mance for Pay? The Rela­tion Between CEO Incen­tive Com­pen­sa­tion and Future Stock Price Per­for­mance , a paper from U of Utah business-school pro­fes­sors, the rela­tion­ship between exec­u­tive per­for­mance and exec­u­tive pay is…
 
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    24/7 Wall St.

  • The 4 Stocks That Tanked the Market

    Paul Ausick
    25 Jul 2014 | 1:01 pm
    July 25, 2014: Markets opened lower on Friday as the markets come to grips with some weak earnings forecast for the current quarter. Only the basic materials sector managed to avoid a downturn. The...
  • Fire Phone Launch Fails to Stop Amazon Stock Price Bleeding

    Paul Ausick
    25 Jul 2014 | 10:40 am
    When Amazon.com reported second-quarter earnings after the markets closed Thursday, the first highlight it listed for its just-ended quarter was its introduction of the Fire phone.
  • Chrysler Sales Surge in July

    Paul Ausick
    25 Jul 2014 | 8:35 am
    Automakers are expected to release July sales numbers next Friday, but sales estimates have already begun to hit the tape. Sales of new vehicles are expected to post a seasonally adjusted annual rate...
  • Barclays Sees Huge Discounted Value in Petrobras Ahead of Elections

    Jon C. Ogg
    25 Jul 2014 | 8:25 am
    Barclays upgrades Petrobras based on it looking much better after the Brazilian elections in October. Shareholders have a lot riding on the coming elections.
  • El Pollo IPO Going Loco

    Paul Ausick
    25 Jul 2014 | 8:00 am
    El Pollo Loco sold 7.14 million shares in an initial public offering Friday morning. The opening price was more than 25% above the top of the expected price range.
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    The Baseline Scenario

  • How to Get Thrown Out of a Luxury Hotel

    James Kwak
    7 Jul 2014 | 12:41 pm
    By James Kwak That’s one of the subplots of Big Money, by Politico reporter Kenneth Vogel, a book that I reviewed for yesterday’s issue of the New York Times Book Review. You can read that review, so I won’t re-review it here, except to say that if you were wondering how political operatives get rich people to part with their money, you’ll find out here.
  • Corporate Political Contributions and Bad Faith, Whatever That Is

    James Kwak
    23 Jun 2014 | 9:08 pm
    By James Kwak In an earlier paper (blog post here), I argued that corporate political contributions can in many cases be challenged by shareholders as conflicted transactions that further insiders’ personal interests (e.g., lower individual income taxes) rather than the best interests of the corporation. The argument (to simplify) was that if a political contribution is in the CEO’s individual interests, the resulting conflict of interest should make the business judgment rule inapplicable, placing on the CEO the burden of proving that the contribution was actually in the best interests…
  • Larry Summers and Finance

    James Kwak
    10 Jun 2014 | 2:38 pm
    By James Kwak I think some people didn’t understand the point I was making about the question of whether the government made money on TARP in my earlier post. Summers said, “The government got back substantially more money than it invested.” This is true, at least if you give him some slack on the word “substantially.” The money repaid, including interest on preferred stock and sales of common stock, exceeded the money invested. My point begins with the observation that, as of late last year, the government had earned an annual return of less than 0.5%. My point…
  • Larry Summers Should Keep His Mouth Shut

    James Kwak
    9 Jun 2014 | 9:04 am
    By James Kwak Larry Summers is well on his way to rehabilitating his public image as a brilliant intellectual, moving on from his checkered record as president of Harvard University and as President Obama’s chief economic adviser during the first years of the administration. Unfortunately, he can’t resist taking on his critics—and he can’t do it without letting his debating instincts take over. I was reading his review of House of Debt by Mian and Sufi. Everything seemed reasonable until I got to this passage justifying the steps taken to bail out the financial system:…
  • Worse Than We Even Imagined

    James Kwak
    6 Jun 2014 | 12:03 pm
    By James Kwak I’m giving a talk at the UConn Law School reunions tomorrow, and one of my closing points is about the plethora of banking crimes/scandals/whoopsies that we’ve seen in the past few years—even those having nothing to do with the financial crisis. This is the slide I created to illustrate the point:   I know I’m forgetting a few, but I figured that was enough. It does really take your breath away.
 
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    Trends... Find them, ride them and get off.

  • Podcast: “Yellen from the Rooftops”

    Howard Lindzon
    17 Jul 2014 | 8:59 am
    Image courtesy of The Fly An extreme sugar high and a delayed fight means you get an extra, high-energy podcast from me this week. Grandma Yellen, who probably couldn’t even define social media, really got me going on Tuesday with her silly statements about social media and biotech companies having “substantially stretched” valuations. Specifically, in her latest Monetary Policy Report she wrote this: Valuation metrics in some sectors do appear substantially stretched—particularly those for smaller firms in the social media and biotechnology industries, despite a notable…
  • Momentum Monday: Chips and Dip

    Howard Lindzon
    15 Jul 2014 | 10:43 am
    So I’m podcasting. Officially and, hopefully, regularly. Specifically, I’m reviving “Momentum Monday,” the show where I talk about making money. You can expect stock talk, tech talk, and, let’s be honest, any other talk I want. In this episode, I’m joined by JC Parets, Mr. All Star Charts, and tech reporter Jennifer Van Grove. We get into long volatility, “chips and dip” stocks, the Yahoo and AOL merger rumors, and LinkedIn’s purchase of Newsle. I’m not a big LinkedIn guy but I love Newsle. I’ve been using it for years. Love…
  • StockTwits and DraftKings team for British Open challenge

    Howard Lindzon
    14 Jul 2014 | 3:10 pm
    DraftKings and StockTwits are teaming up. You thought stock picking was hard, but picking winners in golf has been even more difficult lately. Martin Kaymer? He’s the CYNK of the golf world. Well StockTwits is never one to back down from a challenge so join the crowd in picking a British Open winner. You can join right now. The contest is open to 50 people and it officially starts on Thursday. We are hoping to fill it with StockTwits members, traders, and investors. It costs $20 to join and there are prizes to win. Here is the official breakdown: 1st place wins $500 2nd place wins $250…
  • Disney or CYNK…

    Howard Lindzon
    10 Jul 2014 | 11:40 pm
    Disney is up 86x in the last 30 years. Slow pokes. For you english majors let me translate….if you had invested $1 in Disney 30 years ago, it would be worth $86 today. I would dig up a quick CNBC clip for you if they had one in the last year. If you had taken that one dollar in June of 2014 and had invested it in CYNK Technologies…you could buy The Los Angeles Clippers (one of their hats for sure). The financial media has latched on to this story like my baby puppy latches on to my sweaty sock. CNN Money has the money (no CNN pun intended) headline…’Tech stock soars…
  • The Wall Street ‘WTF Zone’… The SEC Should Ban Price Targets

    Howard Lindzon
    10 Jul 2014 | 2:52 pm
    I harp on this a lot on my blog, but once again I want to point out the silliness and awful nature of price targets by Wall Street banks. In December, Goldman Sachs upgraded the price target on Lumber Liquidators LL to $112. A few shekels were made by traders in the know, but alas it looks like the next few weeks were the last good time to sell the stock. I have a friend Jack with a paid service who was short this stock for the last few months and hopefully will allow me to share his newsletter that detailed the reasons. In the meantime, yesterday, the stock imploded and the reasons are not…
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    Economic Principals

  • Look Both Ways!

    admin
    20 Jul 2014 | 2:01 pm
    We wouldn’t be talking this summer about a body of work known as “disruption theory” if its principal author, Clayton Christensen, of Harvard Business School, hadn’t turned up as the featured expert on coping with change at The New York Times and Harvard University, two  institutions much concerned with maintaining the continuity in American life – and if Christensen hadn’t been attacked, in The New Yorker, by Jill Lepore, a Harvard historian and public intellectual, as a purveyor of flawed and panicky views. The Times’ infatuation with Christensen’s ideas is easy enough to…
  • EP Is Not Writing This Week

    admin
    13 Jul 2014 | 12:06 pm
    Economic Principals spent the week reporting and is not writing this week. Share/Bookmark
  • The Contest between Macro and Growth

    admin
    6 Jul 2014 | 11:53 am
    It was about a year ago that Paul Krugman asked, “[W]hatever happened to New Growth Theory?”  The headline of the item on the blog with which the Nobel laureate supplements his twice-weekly columns for The New York Times telegraphed his answer: The New Growth Fizzle.  He wrote: For a while, in the late 1980s and early 1990s, theories of growth with endogenous technological change were widely heralded as the Next Big Thing in economics. Textbooks were restructured to put long-run growth up front, with business cycles (who cared about those anymore?) crammed into a chapter or two at the…
  • The Evening Papers?

    admin
    29 Jun 2014 | 1:30 pm
    It was business page news last week that George Stephanopoulos is to become the “chief anchor” at ABC News, meaning he will lead the network’s coverage whenever there is breaking news. Stephanopoulos isn’t replacing Diane Sawyer as anchor of ABC’s evening news broadcast when she steps down in August.  Her replacement is David Muir. Instead, Stephanopoulos will continue to co-host ABC’s morning show, where the bigger audience and  far greater advertising profits are to be found, as well as This Week, its Sunday morning talk show. In other words, the evening television network…
  • The Guru’s Job

    admin
    22 Jun 2014 | 1:05 pm
    Chances are, unless you are an MBA, you’ve never read anything by business guru Clayton Christensen, the author of a series of self-help business books beginning with The Innovator’s Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail, in1997. Now, however, an interesting brouhaha has erupted surrounding Harvard historian Jill Lepore’s systematic evisceration of Christensen last week in The New Yorker. Lepore describes the Harvard Business School professor’s “disruption theory” as the product of a particular mood and moment in time – “the manufacture of an upsetting…
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    Marginal REVOLUTION

  • Insurance markets in everything

    Tyler Cowen
    25 Jul 2014 | 10:31 pm
    But there is one type of insurance that people buy to protect them from the consequences of unusually good luck: In Japan, the U.K., and, to a lesser extent, around the world, golfers buy insurance to protect themselves from the potentially bankrupting consequences of sinking a hole in one. The concept of hole in one insurance may baffle the uninitiated, but to many it is a wise precaution as golf tradition holds that anyone who scores a hole in one should buy drinks back at the clubhouse for his playing group — if not everyone present. In Japan, many give extravagant gifts to friends…
  • Sheila Bair is worried about reverse repo

    Tyler Cowen
    25 Jul 2014 | 10:06 am
    Like much of her commentary, I find this considerably overstated.  Still, it suggests a few points of interest and also concern: The mere existence of this facility could exacerbate liquidity runs during times of market stress. Borrowers in the short-term debt markets will have to compete with it for investment dollars and all, to varying degrees, will be viewed as higher risk than lending to the Fed. Even a relatively minor market event could encourage a massive flow of funds to the Fed while contributing to a flow away from other short-term borrowers. Nonfinancial companies could find…
  • Assorted links

    Tyler Cowen
    25 Jul 2014 | 8:44 am
    1. The London pheromone party. 2. Get paid (a little) for Facebook posts. 3. “Both studies revealed similar patterns of relations between trolling and the Dark Tetrad of personality: trolling correlated positively with sadism, psychopathy, and Machiavellianism, using both enjoyment ratings and identity scores. Of all personality measures, sadism showed the most robust associations with trolling and, importantly, the relationship was specific to trolling behavior.”  Link here. 4. Do you value more what you choose yourself? 5. Claims about the pricing of cocktails.  And do you…
  • The Idea of Congressional Intent is Incoherent

    Alex Tabarrok
    25 Jul 2014 | 4:23 am
    Now seems like an apposite time to remember, Congress intends no more than Congress smiles. As Ken Shepsle put it in his classic paper Congress is a “They,” not an “It”: Legislative intent is an internally inconsistent, self-contradictory expression. Therefore, it has no meaning. To claim otherwise is to entertain a myth (the existence of a Rousseauian great law giver) or commit a fallacy (the false personification of a collectivity). In either instance, it provides a very insecure foundation for statutory interpretation. Shepsle’s point is…
  • The Paul Ryan anti-poverty plan

    Tyler Cowen
    25 Jul 2014 | 12:51 am
    The Ryan plan is here (pdf), an NYT summary is here. Overall it’s pretty good.  It attacks excess incarceration and occupational licensing and regressive regulations, three issues where a serious dialogue is badly needed.  It makes a good attempt to limit the incentives for lower-income people not to work.  It’s better than what the Left is turning out for the first time in…how long? I’m not crazy about the complicated plan to monitor the lives of the poor in more detail (“…work with families to design a customized life plan to provide a structured…
 
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    Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

  • For the Weekend: What Does the Existence of a Watchmaker Imply?

    J. Bradford DeLong
    25 Jul 2014 | 5:17 pm
  • Karl Polanyi, Classical Liberalism, and the Varieties of "Neoliberalism": Virtual Office Hours from Espresso Roma CCXXVI: July 25, 2014

    J. Bradford DeLong
    25 Jul 2014 | 11:35 am
    Karl Polanyi's The Great Transformation is certainly the right place to start in thinking about "neoliberalism" and its global spread. But you are right to notice and do need to keep thinking that Polanyi is talking about pre-World War II classical liberalism, and that modern post-1980 neoliberalism is somewhat different. First, as I, at least, see it, there are three strands of thought that together make up the current of ideas and policies that people call "neoliberalism": The revived and restored classical liberals, via the Mont Pelerin society and so forth—-and they do indeed have an…
  • Liveblogging World War I: July 25, 1914: The Serbian Response to the Austro-Hungarian Ultimatum

    J. Bradford DeLong
    25 Jul 2014 | 12:47 am
    The Serbian Response to the Austro-Hungarian Ultimatum: The Royal Government has received the communication of the Imperial and Royal Government of the 23rd inst. and is convinced that its reply will dissipate any misunderstanding which threatens to destroy the friendly and neighbourly relations between the Austrian monarchy and the kingdom of Serbia. The Royal Government is conscious that nowhere there have been renewed protests against the great neighbourly monarchy like those which at one time were expressed in the Skuptschina, as well as in the declaration and actions of the responsible…
  • Noted for Your Evening Procrastination for July 24, 2014

    J. Bradford DeLong
    24 Jul 2014 | 6:19 pm
    Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog Nick Bunker: The very real success of the Earned Income Tax Credit | Washington Center for Equitable Growth Casey Schoeneberger: Washington Center for Equitable Growth Announces Inaugural Class of Grantees | Washington Center for Equitable Growth Lunchtime Must-Read: Ezra Klein: Paul Ryan's Poverty Plan | Washington Center for Equitable Growth Morning Must-Read: Brian Buetler: The Adler-Cannon Halbig v. Burwell Argument Is a Fraud—Just Ask Scott Brown | Washington Center for Equitable Growth Morning Must-Read: Guido Matias Cortes et al.: The Micro…
  • What Should fivethirtyeight.com Do?: Thursday Dutch Uncle Weblogging Advice

    J. Bradford DeLong
    24 Jul 2014 | 6:24 am
    A correspondent writes, apropos of http://fivethirtyeight.com: Nate Silver's extraordinary and unique excellence is to take a look at a complicated but relatively unsophisticated spreadsheet model of a situation and then, every day, telling an excellent narrative story about a piece of the model. That is the way that http://fivethirtyeight.com could be a huge success. But he seems to be following a different strategy. The stories are more: Here is some data, here is how we built it, here is the chart, here is an interesting fact about the chart... That is unlikely to get Nate to where he…
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    99% Invisible

  • 124- Longbox

    Roman Mars
    22 Jul 2014 | 6:26 am
    Reporter Whitney Jones argues that R.E.M.’s Out of Time is the most politically significant album in the history of the United States. Because of its packaging.
  • 123- Snowflake

    Roman Mars
    15 Jul 2014 | 11:47 am
    Well before the early 1500s, when Sir Thomas Moore first coined the term “Utopia,” people have been thinking about how to design their ideal community. Maybe it’s one that doesn’t use money, or one that drops traditional family structures and raises children collectively. For a community of people on the outskirts of the small Arizona town of Snowflake, “utopia” is just a place where they won’t be physically sick. That’s because everyone in this community is suffering from Multiple Chemical Sensitivity or MCS.
  • 122- Good Egress

    Roman Mars
    8 Jul 2014 | 1:52 pm
    When designing a commercial structure, there is one safety component that must be designed right into the building from the start: egress. “Egress” refers to an entire exit system from a building: stairs, corridors, and evacuation routes outside the building. Each state’s building code specifies a certain number of means of egress, depending on the size and purpose of the structure. Simply put, there have to be enough doors, corridors, and stairs for every occupant to exit in an orderly manner in the event of an emergency.
  • 121- Cold War Kids

    Roman Mars
    1 Jul 2014 | 11:30 am
    During the 1961 Berlin Crisis—one of the various moments in the cold war in which we came frighteningly close to engaging in actual war with the Soviets—President John F. Kennedy vowed to identify spaces in “existing structures both public and private that could be used for fallout shelters in case of attack.” After JFK’s speech, a fallout shelter economy sprung up overnight in the U.S. There were door to door bomb-shelter salesmen, shelter displays at malls and county fairs, and pamphlets for sale on every magazine rack. But by the time Kennedy made that speech, one…
  • 120- Skyjacking

    Roman Mars
    23 Jun 2014 | 9:51 pm
    The term “hijacking” goes back to prohibition days, when gangsters would rob moonshine trucks saying, “Hold your hands high, Jack!” However, in the early days of commercial air travel, the idea that someone would hijack a plane was scarcely even considered. When the government started to oversee aviation in 1958, the congressional law did not even make hijacking a crime and the early design of airport terminals reflected this mentality. Airports were once more like train stations, where you walk through the terminal and onto the tarmac, and sometimes straight onto the…
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    bank-o-meter.com

  • Friday, July 25, 2014 - Hot and Dry

    Sinclair Noe
    25 Jul 2014 | 2:36 pm
    Hot and Dryby Sinclair NoeDOW – 123 = 16,960SPX – 9 = 1978NAS – 22 = 444910 YR YLD - .04 = 2.47OIL - .13 = 101.94GOLD + 13.30 = 1308.20SILV + .35 = 20.82For the week, the Dow is down 0.8%, the S&P is flat and the Nasdaq is up 0.4% in its second straight weekly rise.In economic news, durable goods orders were up 1.4% in June, but May’s numbers were revised lower to show a 1.2% decline. Shipments of core capital goods fell 1%. Core capital goods shipments are used to calculate equipment spending in the government's gross domestic product measurement. The government will release its…
  • Thursday, July 24, 2014 - Bankster Logic

    Sinclair Noe
    24 Jul 2014 | 4:07 pm
    Bankster Logicby Sinclair NoeDOW – 2 = 17,083SPX + 0.97 = 1987NAS – 1 = 447210 YR YLD + .05 = 2.51%OIL - .03 = 102.04GOLD – 10.10 = 1294.90SILV - .54 = 20.47An extremely flat day on Wall Street but good enough for another S&P 500 record high close.In economic news: Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 284,000 for the week ended July 19, the lowest level since February 2006. In the past six months, unemployment has fallen much faster than expected, from 6.7 to 6.1%. The labor market is still struggling with long term unemployment and…
  • Wednesday, July 23, 2014 - Another Day Another Dollar

    Sinclair Noe
    23 Jul 2014 | 4:18 pm
    Another Day Another Dollarby Sinclair NoeDOW – 26 = 17,086SPX + 3 = 1987NAS + 17 = 447310 YR YLD un = 2.46%OIL = 103.12GOLD – 3.50 = 1305.00SILV - .06 = 21.01The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose to an all-time high, as Apple boosted technology companies and health-care shares rallied through another busy day of earnings reports. The Dow was lower, mainly due to Boeing – we’ll get to that in a moment. Apple hit its highest level since 2012, based on earnings reported after the close yesterday. Profits at S&P 500 members probably rose 6.2 percent in the second quarter, while…
  • Tuesday, July 22, 2014 - Curb Your Enthusiasm

    Sinclair Noe
    22 Jul 2014 | 3:55 pm
    Curb Your Enthusiasmby Sinclair NoeDOW + 61 = 17,113SPX + 9 = 1983NAS + 31 = 445610 YR YLD - .01 = 2.46%OIL - .17 = 104.42GOLD – 4.70 = 1308.50SILV + .04 = 21.07We start with a couple of economic reports. The National Association of Realtors reports existing home sales were up 2.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.04 million, compared to 4.91 million in May. Sales in June were 2.6% higher than last month, but were 2.3% below the June 2013 rate. Total inventory rose 2.2% in June to 2.3 million existing homes for sale; unsold inventory is up 6.5% from a year ago. At June’s pace of…
  • Monday, July 21, 2014 - A Three Legged Stool

    Sinclair Noe
    21 Jul 2014 | 4:08 pm
    A Three Legged Stoolby Sinclair NoeDOW – 48 = 17,051SPX – 4 = 1973NAS – 7 = 442410 YR YLD - .01 = 2.47%OIL + 1.46 = 104.59GOLD + 1.30 = 1313.20SILV + .04 = 21.03First leg:Let’s start with earnings reporting season, which kicks into full gear this week with 140 of the S&P 500 companies posting results. Netflix reported a profit of $71 million, or $1.15 a share, on revenue of $1.34 billion. This was in line with expectations, but for Netflix, an important component is how fast they are adding subscribers; turns out – pretty fast; 1.69 million new net streamers in the second…
 
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    iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

  • The Slow Recovery Continues

    iMFdirect
    24 Jul 2014 | 8:30 am
    By Olivier Blanchard (Versions in Español, 中文,  日本語, Русский ) The recovery continues, but it remains weak, indeed a bit weaker than we forecast in April. We have revised our forecast for world growth in 2014 from 3.7 percent in April to 3.4 percent today. This headline number makes things look worse than they really are. To a large extent, it reflects something that has already happened, namely the large negative US growth rate in the first quarter. But it is not all due to that. It also reflects a number of small downward revisions, both in advanced and in emerging…
  • Euro Area: An Unbalanced Rebalancing?

    iMFdirect
    22 Jul 2014 | 8:05 am
    By John Bluedorn and Shengzu Wang Since the financial crisis, the euro area current account, made up mostly of the trade balances of the individual countries, has moved from rough balance into a clear surplus. But the underlying rebalancing across economies within the euro area has been highly asymmetric, with some debtors, like Greece, Ireland, and Spain, seeing large current account improvements (sometimes into surplus), while creditors, like Germany and the Netherlands, have basically maintained their surpluses (Chart 1). A set of new staff papers look at the drivers of the improvements in…
  • Asia’s Seismic Shift: How Can the Financial Sector Serve Better?

    iMFdirect
    21 Jul 2014 | 11:00 am
    By Min Zhu (Versions in  中文) Asia is set to be the powerhouse for growth in the next decade, just as it was in the last one. The size of its economy is expected to expand more rapidly than the other regions of the world, and its share in the world output is expected to rise from 30 percent to more than 40 percent in the coming decade. The structure of the economy is expected to continue to transform from a narrower manufacturing hub to a group of vibrant, diverse and large markets with a rising middle-class population. The role of the financial sector is critical in the success of this…
  • Fiscal Policy’s Evolving Role

    iMFdirect
    17 Jul 2014 | 7:30 am
    Fiscal policy makers have faced an extraordinarily challenging environment over the last few years. At the outset of the global financial crisis, the IMF for the first time advocated a fiscal expansion across all countries able to afford it, a seeming departure from the long-held consensus among economists that monetary policy rather than fiscal policy was the appropriate response to fluctuations in economic activity. Since then, the IMF has emphasized that the speed of fiscal adjustment should be determined by the specific circumstances in each country. Its recommendation that in general…
  • Euro Area – Q&A on QE

    iMFdirect
    14 Jul 2014 | 7:05 am
    By Reza Moghadam and Ranjit Teja  As inflation has sunk in the euro area, talk of quantitative easing (QE)—and misgivings about it—have soared. Some think QE is not needed; others that it would not work; and yet others that it only creates asset bubbles and may even be “illegal.” In its latest report on the euro area, the IMF assesses recent policy action positively but adds that “… if inflation remains too low, the ECB should consider a substantial balance sheet expansion, including through asset purchases.” Given all the reservations, would the juice be worth the squeeze?
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    EconomicPolicyJournal.com

  • EPJ Week In Review - Week Ending 7/25/14

    26 Jul 2014 | 4:00 am
    Below you'll find everything that has been published on EPJ for the week ended Friday July 25, 2014. The hottest posts for each day are highlighted in red. Friday 7/25/14 FBI Tried to Snare SF Mayor and a Former SF 49ers Quarterback in a Sting The Federal Reserve's Risky Reverse Repurchase Scheme That Could Crash the Economy Political Correctness Has Evolved into Comedy LOL:
  • Goofy Drama: NYPD Terror Chief Scales Brooklyn Bridge to Inspect White Flag Site

    25 Jul 2014 | 5:03 pm
    File under: Super absurd The drama continues over the anarchist calisthenic-type raising of white flags over the Brooklyn Bridge (SEE: Nearly 3 Dozen Detectives Assigned to White Flag Mystery) Now John Miller, Deputy Commissioner of Intelligence of the NYPD and a former news reporter at ABC and CBS, has gotten into the act, as though the raising of why flags was some type of terrorist event.
  • Is the Ukraine "Crisis" a US Crony Oil Play?; Further Discussion of S.2277 (“to prevent further Russian aggression, etc.”)

    25 Jul 2014 | 4:04 pm
    By Michael S. Rozeff The Russians are well aware of this bill. There is an article on The Voice of Russia, dated June 5, that discusses this bill in detail. Further detailed discussion appears in a May 26 article by Global Research. Each of the many alarming sections of this monstrous bill are examined in this article. This web site is very good at ferreting out imperialist connections. In
  • How Bitcoin Will Be Smothered by New York State Regulators

    25 Jul 2014 | 3:05 pm
    TBI's Daily Bit is out with a discussion of the recent regulations proposed by the New York State Department of Financial Services. The general tone of TBI's commentary is focused on how Bitcoin fanboys should attempt to influence and change the proposed regulations. But, with that focus, much of the essay provides a very good perspective on how much the regulations are going to clamp down on
  • Ron Paul-Backed Candidate Vows to Defund Government

    25 Jul 2014 | 2:01 pm
    Jay Stephenson emails: I like this candidate for county commissioner in Nevada. From Raw Story:  A Ron Paul-endorsed candidate for county commissioner in Nevada outlined her conspiracy theory-informed vision for local governance in recently posted video. Cindy Lake, a Republican candidate for Clark County commissioner, said she became active in politics because Paul – the former Texas
 
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    Visualizing Economics

  • Average Household Income by US Counties

    Catherine Mulbrandon
    4 Jul 2014 | 9:42 am
    We've Moved! Update your RSS reader. This feed has moved to: http://feeds.visualizingeconomics.com/visualizingeconomicsUpdate your RSS reader with this new subscription address to get your latest updates from Visualizing Economics. Or switch to an email subscription
  • Jersey City 2014 Budget in 4 Easy Graphs

    Catherine Mulbrandon
    2 Jun 2014 | 3:11 pm
    We've Moved! Update your RSS reader. This feed has moved to: http://feeds.visualizingeconomics.com/visualizingeconomicsUpdate your RSS reader with this new subscription address to get your latest updates from Visualizing Economics. Or switch to an email subscription
  • US Housing Boom, Bust and Recovery Maps

    Catherine Mulbrandon
    18 May 2014 | 3:18 pm
    We've Moved! Update your RSS reader. This feed has moved to: http://feeds.visualizingeconomics.com/visualizingeconomicsUpdate your RSS reader with this new subscription address to get your latest updates from Visualizing Economics. Or switch to an email subscription
  • Real Rolling Gold Returns Compared to Stocks 1928-2013

    Catherine Mulbrandon
    16 May 2014 | 12:14 pm
    We've Moved! Update your RSS reader. This feed has moved to: http://feeds.visualizingeconomics.com/visualizingeconomicsUpdate your RSS reader with this new subscription address to get your latest updates from Visualizing Economics. Or switch to an email subscription
  • How much do federal taxes redistribute income?

    Catherine Mulbrandon
    17 Apr 2014 | 3:33 pm
    We've Moved! Update your RSS reader. This feed has moved to: http://feeds.visualizingeconomics.com/visualizingeconomicsUpdate your RSS reader with this new subscription address to get your latest updates from Visualizing Economics. Or switch to an email subscription
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    Carl Futia

  • Guesstimates on July 25, 2014

    25 Jul 2014 | 5:58 am
    September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1971-80. I think that the ES is in the early stages of a move to 2000 and higher.  QQQ: Support is now at 94.00 and I think the Q’s have a good shot at 99.00. TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.Euro-US Dollar: The euro has definitely broken the low of the 1.35-1.37 trading range and is now headed for 1.33 or lower. Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00. September Crude:  Crude has dropped decisively below 102 support and is now headed for 90.August Gold:…
  • Attention Traders

    24 Jul 2014 | 9:41 am
    As you know I have started to post the S&P E-mini trades I make in my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime  on this blog's Twitter feed (at the top of the right hand column). You can follow me here on Twitter for free but keep in mind that the trade postings are delayed 5-10 minutes. Since I started posting these trades on October 14 they have generated  72 points profit on a one contract basis. This is a return of 36% on a 10k trading account to margin a single contract (a very conservative approach since day trade margin on a single contract is only about $2,500). Since the start…
  • update

    24 Jul 2014 | 9:39 am
    I'd like to update my views on the US stock market averages although not much has changed since my last post on the subject.It now looks like the Lindsay projections for a July top are off the mark. As with most forecasting methods Lindsay's allows one to stretch projections out a bit and even distort them to fit your own preconceptions. But this is generally a fruitless effort so for the moment I'd say that Lindsay does not have much to say about the prospects of a bull market top in this general vicinity.The same remarks apply to my various interpretations of the three peaks and a domed…
  • Guesstimates on July 24, 29014

    24 Jul 2014 | 5:52 am
    September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1978-88. I think that the ES is in the early stages of a move to 2000 and higher.  QQQ: Support is now at 94.00 and I think the Q’s have a good shot at 99.00. TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.Euro-US Dollar: The euro has spent a day below the 1.35 low of its recent trading range but so far this breakout has not led to any further downside pressure. However, a drop below 1.3435 would mean that the market iw headed down to 1.33 or lower. Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is…
  • Guesstimates on July 23, 2014

    23 Jul 2014 | 5:56 am
    September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1975-88. I think that the ES is in the early stages of a move to 2000 and higher.  QQQ: Support is now at 94.00 and I think the Q’s have a good shot at 99.00. TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.Euro-US Dollar: The euro has again dropped below the 1.35 low of its recent trading range. If the market spends a day trading below 1.35 I will start looking for a swing down to 1.33. Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00. September Crude:  Crude has dropped…
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    True Economics

  • 26/7/2014: This Week in Corporate 'Not Tax Haven' News

    26 Jul 2014 | 3:08 am
    Earlier today I wrote about the round of 'assert-deny' salvos fired across Ireland's deck by German economic policy adviser and the Department of Finance (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/07/2672014-of-germans-bearing-ugly-truth.html). This was hardly the only defensive that Ireland Inc had to run this week. A much larger one came on foot of the US President Barak Obama singling Ireland out as the key global player in the dirty game of corporate tax inversions.Newsflow was not too generous to Ireland on this front (corporate tax evasion and optimisation) this week.It started with a…
  • 26/7/2014: Of Germans Bearing the Ugly Truth?..

    26 Jul 2014 | 1:50 am
    German experts and analysts have an un-Irish capability of speaking their own mind... and when they do (and they do it anywhere, including when visiting this country of ours), they don't mince words. Behold the latest 'visitor' from the land of 'Nein!': Dr. Joachim Pfeiffer, the economic policy spokesman for the parliamentary group of the ruling Christian Democrats. Dr. Pfeiffer was in Dublin this week. Somewhere between a nice dinners and customary ritual of witnessing the Irish 'craic' in a pub, the learned Doktor sneaked a few minutes to tell us that "Ireland has “no chance” of…
  • 26/7/2014: An Ethno-Linguistic Map of Ukraine

    26 Jul 2014 | 1:35 am
    A neat summary of ethno-linguistic mess that is Ukraine:Source: Vox.comThe problem is not multiplicity of languages and their concentrations in specific, defined and often contiguous areas. The problem is not even the fact that many such areas are defined by different and distinct historical and cultural identities that variably place the dominant groups within each region either with Russia, or Ukraine, or Poland, or Romania, or Moldova...The problem is that the only way to address such divisions is via a federal structure of governance - something that Kiev and Western Ukraine fear and…
  • 25/7/2014: WLASze: Weekend Links on Arts, Sciences and zero economics

    25 Jul 2014 | 1:26 pm
    The is WLASze: Weekend Links on Arts, Sciences and zero economicsAdmittedly, the WLASze has become a rather irregular feature on this blog. Still, occasionally, I come across some interesting reading on a variety of arts and sciences subjects worth sharing… lighter and heavier alike.On a heavy side of thing, Rupert Read and Nassim Nicholas Taleb essay "Religion, Heuristics, and Intergenerational Risk Management" (ECON JOURNAL WATCH 11(2) May 2014: 219-226: http://econjwatch.org/articles/religion-heuristics-and-intergenerational-risk-management).As anything Taleb puts his mind to, this…
  • 24/7/2014: DB's Worst Case Scenario for Ukrainian Crisis

    24 Jul 2014 | 5:44 am
    Earlier this week, Deutsche Bank Research published its 'worst case' scenario for acceleration in the Ukrainian conflict. Here's the slide:Some of the points are in overlap with concerns I expressed here. Investment interlinks between Europe and Russia covered here. My roadmap for solutions is here. And you can read my note on changes in Russian geopolitical strategy here.
 
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    Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

  • New Home Sales: June 2014

    24 Jul 2014 | 7:56 am
    Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for June showing a notable decline with sales declining 8.1% from May falling 11.5% below the level seen in June 2013 remaining near an historically low level with 406K SAAR units. The monthly supply increased to 5.8 months while the median selling price increased 5.27% and the average selling price increased 8.27% from the year ago level. The following chart show the extent of sales decline to date (click for full-larger version).
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: June 2014

    21 Jul 2014 | 8:27 am
    The latest release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that the national economic activity weakened in June with the index falling to a very weak level of 0.12 from a level of 0.16 in May while the three month moving average worsened to a weak level of 0.13. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”. The Chicago Fed regards a…
  • Retail Sales: June 2014

    15 Jul 2014 | 9:26 pm
    Yesterday, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales  showing increasing activity in June with sales rising 0.2% from May and 4.3% on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services. Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales declined slightly, falling 0.31% from May but rising 1.73% above the level seen in June 2013 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales declined 0.48% on…
  • Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – July 09 2014

    9 Jul 2014 | 11:33 am
    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications. The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases. The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate…
  • Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls and Civilian Unemployment June 2014

    7 Jul 2014 | 10:06 am
    The latest Employment Situation Report indicated that in June, net non-farm payrolls increased by 288,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 262,000 jobs while the civilian unemployment rate declined to 6.1% over the same period.Net private sector jobs increased 0.22% since last month climbing 2.13% above the level seen a year ago and climbing 1.04% above the peak level of employment seen in December 2007 prior to the Great Recession.
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    Stock Trading To Go

  • STTG Market Recap July 25, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    25 Jul 2014 | 4:26 pm
    Indexes gapped down and stayed down all session as weakness in Amazon.com and Visa hurt morale a bit. The S&P 500 fell 0.48% and the NASDAQ 0.50%. Late in the day Goldman Sachs released a note saying they are "neutral" on equities over three months as it sees a slide in bonds leading to a temporary selloff in stocks. Original post: STTG Market Recap July 25, 2014 Read the full article... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap July 24, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    24 Jul 2014 | 5:02 pm
    Thursday was a quiet session with indexes flipping around the unchanged line. The S&P 500 gained 0.05% while the NASDAQ dropped 0.04%. It was another day of very high profile companies reporting. Economic news in the housing market was not very good - new home sales declined 8.1 percent in June, the biggest drop in almost a year. Original post: STTG Market Recap July 24, 2014 Read the... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap July 23, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    23 Jul 2014 | 3:29 pm
    Indexes were up most of the session as a surge by Apple (AAPL) helped lift things; this is a massive component of the NASDAQ. The S&P 500 gained 0.18% and the NASDAQ 0.40%. It was a very busy day with a lot of blockbuster companies reporting so we'll focus on that today. Original post: STTG Market Recap July 23, 2014 Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap July 22, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    22 Jul 2014 | 4:07 pm
    It has been choppy action of late after the surge we had early in July during the holiday week. Stocks exited that week very overbought short term and since then we had a needed minor pullback followed by some geopolitical issues. All in all things are doing well in the large cap area while small caps have been a bit more troubled. So for the indexes we focus on each day things look ok.... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap July 21, 2014

    Mark Hanna
    21 Jul 2014 | 4:25 pm
    Indexes opened quite significantly down on a number of geopolitical items (Russia, Gaza) but a steady line of buyers came in throughout the session and by the end of the day losses were minimal. The S&P 500 fell 0.23% and the NASDAQ 0.17%. There was not much going on in the economic sphere; most were discussing the issues overseas and if there will be any contagion. Original post:... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
 
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    Political Calculations

  • 13-Year Old Fails to Make a Solar Breakthrough, Accidentally Discovers Fountain of Youth Instead

    25 Jul 2014 | 1:00 am
    It was a triumphant story that was first published by the Northport Patch back on 5 August 2011. Then, the tiny community web site of the tiny town located on the northwest corner of Long Island, New York announced that then 13-year old Northport Middle School student Aidan Dwyer had applied a mathematical principle found in trees that could improve the performance of solar panels and had been granted a provisional U.S. patent for an invention stemming from his insight: Aidan Dwyer has accomplished more in his life than most people three times his age. He sails, he golfs-- and he is a…
  • The Worst State for Teen Jobs Is Getting Worse

    24 Jul 2014 | 1:47 am
    Previously, we found that the worst state for jobs for teens in the U.S. is California. But we have bad news for the teens in that state. In 2014, the worst state for job-seeking teens, California, is getting worse: Here is how that compares with the job market for adults in California (Age 20 and over) since the total employment level in the U.S. peaked in November 2007, just ahead of the U.S. economy's peak of expansion in December 2007, marking the official beginning of the so-called "Great Recession": To make it to the bottom in this category takes a unique combination of poor government…
  • The Best and Worst States for Teen Jobs in the U.S.

    23 Jul 2014 | 1:37 am
    What are the best and worst states for U.S. teens between the ages of 16 and 19 for finding jobs? To find out, we turned to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, whose Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment provides the data by detailed age group on an annual basis for the years from 1999 through preliminary figures for 2013. We used that data to calculate the ratio of the number of employed U.S. teens from Age 16 through 19 with respect to their numbers in the U.S. population to create the following chart. In the chart, we see that North Dakota is currently the leader among all…
  • The Odds of an IRS Cover Up

    22 Jul 2014 | 1:32 am
    What are the odds that IRS employees deliberately targeted President Barack Obama's political opposition and have attempted to cover it up? On 31 May 2013, the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) told Congressional investigators that they had identified at least 88 IRS employees and supervisors who were involved in targeting groups opposed to various aspects of President Barack Obama's political agenda. At that time, the IRS ordered these employees to preserve all the "responsive documents" related to the scandal on their personal computers, which would apply to documents going back as far as…
  • Shooting Down the Stock Market

    21 Jul 2014 | 1:01 am
    A new noise event rattled the markets on Thursday, 17 July 2014, when news broke that a Malaysian Airlines commercial jet had been shot down over eastern Ukraine, potentially by Russian-backed separatists. That act caused stock prices to drop below the level they would otherwise be, assuming that investors are now focused on 2015-Q2 (the quarter the Fed will likely hike interest rates from their current near-zero levels) in setting today's stock prices. Our expectations/accelerations chart shows the negative impact upon stock prices with respect to the change in the growth rate of dividends…
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    Calafia Beach Pundit

  • The $1 trillion tax on cash

    25 Jul 2014 | 1:36 pm
    One under-appreciated side-effect of the Fed's quantitative easing and zero-bound interest rate policies is the sizable "inflation tax" borne by all those who have been holding cash, cash equivalents, and short-term securities since the end of 2008. By my estimates, this tax could total $1 trillion or more. As the public becomes increasingly aware of this under-the-radar tax, the demand for cash and short-term securities (cash equivalents) is likely to decline, and that will complicate the Fed's QE exit strategy.The Fed's target for the fed funds rate (the rate banks charge each other to…
  • Buffet's "Bubble Red" Indicator

    24 Jul 2014 | 2:13 pm
    You may have noticed a recent post on Zero Hedge ("Forget Shiller's CAPE, Warren Buffet's 'Best Indicator' Is Flashing Bubble Red"). It includes a chart that shows the market value of U.S. companies as a % of nominal GDP, and it does look scary: by this measure equity valuation is almost as extreme as it was in early 2000.I can't vouch for the data behind the ZH graph, but I can vouch for the data used to create the above graph. In my experience, the S&P 500 index has been the best measure of the performance of the U.S. stock market, and it has also been the best proxy for the value of…
  • Job security doesn't get much better than it is today

    24 Jul 2014 | 8:33 am
    First-time claims for unemployment last week came in much lower than expected. This is more good news for the jobs market and the economy, since it means that businesses are facing very low levels of stress.Relative to total jobs, the current level of claims is now about as low as it has ever been. The average worker has never had such a high level of job security—think of the above graph as a measure of the probability that a worker is laid off in any given week.
  • Recovery rests on solid, not liquid ground

    23 Jul 2014 | 10:08 am
    It's not hard to find analysts who argue that this recovery owes everything to the Fed's massive injections of liquidity. By pumping money and keeping short-term interest rates near zero, the Fed has forced liquidity into risky assets, thus propping up equity prices excessively and artificially.As long-time readers of this blog know, I think that argument is weak at best. The Fed has not been printing money with its Quantitative Easing programs. The Fed has simply been swapping bank reserves (which are functionally equivalent to T-bills) for notes and bonds, and they have been doing this in…
  • Commercial real estate enjoys double-digit growth

    21 Jul 2014 | 8:58 am
    Commercial real estate prices have yet to exceed their pre-recession highs, but they are getting close, according to the repeat-sales indices of the Co-Star Group. As the chart above shows, Co-Star's value-weighted index of commercial property prices has been rising at about a 10% annualized rate for the past four years. That's a pretty impressive recovery in my book, even though prices in inflation-adjusted terms are still 12% lower than their 2007 highs. (The Value-Weighted Index is a more liquid, and thus more reliable and more responsive index, than the Equal-Weighted Index.)The first…
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    Donald Marron

  • The Federal Reserve is Not Ending Its Stimulus

    Donald
    10 Jul 2014 | 10:51 am
    Yesterday, the Federal Reserve confirmed that it would end new purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS)—what’s known as quantitative easing—in October. In response, the media are heralding the end of the Fed’s stimulus: “Fed Stimulus is Really Going to End and Nobody Cares,” says the Wall Street Journal. “Federal Reserve Plans to End Stimulus in October,” reports the BBC. This is utterly wrong. What the Fed is about to do is stop increasing the amount of stimulus it provides. For the mathematically inclined, it’s the first derivative of stimulus that…
  • Happy Tau Day

    Donald
    28 Jun 2014 | 1:47 pm
    Blogging’s been very light of late, but I couldn’t let June 28th slip by without commemorating Tau Day. Math aficionados often celebrate March 14 as Pi day, since Pi starts 3.14. All good fun. But as Michael Hartl argues over at the Tau Manifesto, Pi was likely a mistake. If we could rewrite math history, we’d do better to venerate tau, which equals 2 times pi, or about 6.28. So Happy Tau Day! Hartl marshals multiple arguments in his manifesto. But the best reason is likely the simplest. The two most interesting things about a circle are its radius and its perimeter (aka…
  • Seven Tax Issues Facing Small Business

    Donald
    9 Apr 2014 | 12:47 pm
    Today I had the chance to testify before the House Small Business Committee on the many tax issues facing small business. Here are my opening remarks. You can find my full testimony here. America’s tax system is needlessly complex, economically harmful, and often unfair. Despite recent revenue gains, it likely will not raise enough money to pay the government’s future bills. The time is thus ripe for wholesale tax reform. Such reform could have far-reaching effects, including on small business. To help you evaluate those effects, I’d like to make seven points about the tax issues…
  • How Big is America’s Underground Sex Economy?

    Donald
    12 Mar 2014 | 9:58 am
    How big is the underground sex economy in the United States and how does it work? The Urban Institute is out with a big study today that offers some answers. Here’s a brief summary of the full study (see also the accompanying feature). Our study focused on eight US cities— Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, Kansas City, Miami, Seattle, San Diego, and Washington, DC. Across cities, the 2007 underground sex economy’s worth was estimated between $39.9 and $290 million. While almost all types of commercial sex venues—massage parlors, brothels, escort services, and street- and internet-based…
  • Spaghetti, Pies, and Clutterplots: Visualizing Data

    Donald
    5 Feb 2014 | 11:06 am
    Jonathan Schwabish has just published a wonderful guide to visualizing economic data. If you produce charts, you really ought to study it. Here’s one example, transforming a default Excel “spaghetti” chart into something more tasty:
 
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • “An Experience with a Registered Replication Project”

    Andrew
    25 Jul 2014 | 6:52 am
    Anne Pier Salverda writes: I came across this blog entry, “An Experience with a Registered Replication Project,” and thought that you would find this interesting. It’s written by Simone Schnall, a social psychologist who is the first author of an oft-cited Psych Science(!) paper (“Cleanliness reduces the severity of moral judgments”) that a group of researchers from Michigan State failed to replicate as part of a big replication project. Schnall writes about her experience as the subject of a “failed recplication”. I like the tone of her blog entry.
  • If it was good enough for Martin Luther King and Laurence Tribe . . .

    Andrew
    24 Jul 2014 | 7:24 am
    People keep pointing me to this. P.S. I miss the old days when people would point me to bad graphs. The post If it was good enough for Martin Luther King and Laurence Tribe . . . appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • NFL players keep getting bigger and bigger

    Andrew
    24 Jul 2014 | 6:42 am
    Aleks points us to this beautiful dynamic graph by Noah Veltman showing the heights and weights of NFL players over time. The color is pretty but I think I’d prefer something simpler, just one dot per player (with some jittering to handle the discrete reporting of heights and weights). In any case, it’s a great graph. Click on the link to see it in action. P.S. Even better, once we move to a dynamic scatterplot, would be to use different colors for different positions, and to allow the reader of the graph to highlight different positions. On the linked page, Veltman writes,…
  • A world without statistics

    Andrew
    23 Jul 2014 | 6:49 am
    A reporter asked me for a quote regarding the importance of statistics. But, after thinking about it for a moment, I decided that statistics isn’t so important at all. A world without statistics wouldn’t be much different from the world we have now. What would be missing, in a world without statistics? Science would be pretty much ok. Newton didn’t need statistics for his theories of gravity, motion, and light, nor did Einstein need statistics for the theory of relativity. Thermodynamics and quantum mechanics are fundamentally statistical, but lots of progress could’ve…
  • Battle of the cozy comedians: What’s Alan Bennett’s problem with Stewart Lee?

    Andrew
    22 Jul 2014 | 6:41 am
    When in London awhile ago I picked up the book, “How I Escaped My Certain Fate: The Life and Deaths of a Stand-Up Comedian,” by Stewart Lee. I’d never heard of the guy but the book was sitting there, it had good blurbs, and from a quick flip-through it looked interesting. Now that I’ve read the whole thing, I can confirm that it really is interesting. I recommend it. Along with transcripts of some of his comedy routines—which aren’t particularly funny most of the time, at least not on the page—he has lots of discussion of what works and what…
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    Capital Chronicle

  • Uncertainty vs risk: S&P500 volatility since 1929

    7 Jul 2014 | 1:49 pm
    This from Goldman Sachs' Top of Mind Global Macro Research report of 25 Jun, 2014:Although the detail within the GS report is balanced this shorter and sharper piece from the FT's Underground Economist distills the debate with no great loss of message.(And that Professor Bloom paper the FT cites is here)
  • Curse of Reinhart & Rogoff strikes Piketty

    23 May 2014 | 11:28 pm
    If only Mr. Rogoff had waited a couple of weeks before reviewing Mr. Piketty's opus here the result might have been far more entertaining (as well as thought-provoking).Why? Mr. Piketty got the R&R treatment from the FT this week (right here, you may have to register to see). Some of the criticism is about data sources; some is about data adjustments; and some concerns data selection. But the underlying question is about the combination of these and their subsequent interpretation.The New York Times captures that last point when commenting on this graphic from the FT piece written by…
  • What do you have to do to lose your US banking license?

    1 May 2014 | 5:04 am
    More anti-bank developments reported here by Dealbook featuring, amongst others, Preet Bharara the US attorney in Manhattan. It was Bharara who took down Galleon and saw that Rajaratnam got jail time. After that conviction Bharara said:“The message today is clear — there are rules and there are laws, and they apply to everyone, no matter who you are or how much money you have.” Now he (and others) are seeking to walk the talk by bringing criminal charges against two foreign banks operating in the US.Tough ask? Law breaking and deception by banks have only been met to date with…
  • When PIIGS and BRICS aren't enough

    2 Apr 2014 | 6:11 am
    Yes, the metaphoric jargon jungle has expanded to include EAGLES and Nests according to BBVA research. Nice graphics tho:The full Emerging And Growth Leading Economies report with its fearless 10 year forecasts can be enjoyed here.
  • Here's to 5 years of solid literary gloom starting soon...

    9 Jan 2014 | 3:45 am
    Great new leading indicator for literary mood.Abstract:For the 20th century since the Depression, we find a strong correlation between a ‘literary misery index’ derived from English language books and a moving average of the previous decade of the annual U.S. economic misery index, which is the sum of inflation and unemployment rates. We find a peak in the goodness of fit at 11 years for the moving average. The fit between the two misery indices holds when using different techniques to measure the literary misery index, and this fit is significantly better than other possible correlations…
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    TheMoneyIllusion

  • David Glasner on me on IS-LM

    ssumner
    25 Jul 2014 | 5:59 pm
    Here is David Glasner: Scott is totally right, of course, to point out that the fall in interest rates and the increase in the real quantity of money do not contradict the “money hypothesis.” However, he is also being selective and unfair in making that criticism, because, in two slides following almost immediately after the one to which Scott takes such offense, Foote actually explains that the simple IS-LM analysis presented in the previous slide requires modification to take into account expected deflation, because the demand for money depends on the nominal rate of interest while the…
  • Gun control and Haldig

    ssumner
    25 Jul 2014 | 2:13 pm
    There are two views on gun control.  Those who study original intent believe that the Second Amendment applies to individuals. That’s clearly what the founders intended.  (Read Joyce Malcolm for the historical background of the 2nd Amendment.)  Those who focus on the precise wording of the amendment are split, but some believe it only applies to citizens who are members of the National Guard.  (I don’t buy that interpretation, but my views are not relevant here.) So we can assume that when and if Haldig is appealed to the Supreme Court, all the liberal justices who tend to…
  • Jonathan Gruber on federal exchanges and subsidies

    ssumner
    25 Jul 2014 | 7:52 am
    Several commenters pointed to a statement made by Jonathan Gruber in 2012.  (Gruber is a well know academic who helped advise Congress on the ACA, and who supports it.) What’s important to remember politically about this is if you’re a state and you don’t set up an exchange, that means your citizens don’t get their tax credits — but your citizens still pay the taxes that support this bill. So you’re essentially saying [to] your citizens you’re going to pay all the taxes to help all the other states in the country. I hope that that’s a blatant enough political reality that…
  • The NYT and WaPo have liberal bias, which is why conservatives need to read them

    ssumner
    24 Jul 2014 | 11:51 am
    Matt Yglesias has a very disturbing post.  I’d guess that most intellectuals who read the post will yawn, which makes it even more disturbing: The deep nature of the division is illustrated by the suspicious way in which legal opinions and policy preferences are lining up on this issue. Essentially everyone who believes the Affordable Care Act was an important step toward securing social justice also agrees that it would be absurd to construe the statute in a manner that’s plainly inconsistent with congress’ goals. And essentially everyone who believes it’s crucially…
  • Let’s consider the big picture

    ssumner
    24 Jul 2014 | 9:40 am
    The Obama administration favors extending unemployment benefits from the normal 26 weeks to an “emergency” level of 73 weeks maximum.  You might wonder if that makes sense right now. After all, some bloggers are claiming that we no longer have a demand shortfall.  Ah, but you aren’t looking at the “big picture.”  Let Joe Biden explain why we need emergency level extended unemployment benefits right now: Let’s step back and consider the big picture. When we took office, our country was in the throes of the worst recession since the Great Depression. Millions…
 
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    Scott Lincicome

  • Announcements

    21 Jul 2014 | 5:56 pm
    Although this blog has gone pretty quiet over the last few months (an understatement, I know), I've been keeping busy with plenty of (non-toddler-related) stuff, including--This Thursday, July 24, I'll be speaking at the Heritage Foundation at an event on "Energy Exports and Free Trade."  The lineup for the event is (if I do say so myself) pretty stellar, and the subject matter couldn't be more timely.  Here's the description:Expanding domestic energy production over the past few years has provided a welcome boost to the American economy. The federal government, however, has…
  • Archaic US Trade Policies Inflate Gas Prices, Enrich Cronies

    22 Apr 2014 | 7:05 pm
    Cross-posted on Cato's blog:The summer driving season is still weeks away, but rising U.S. gas prices are already back in the news.  Last week, the average price for regular gasoline at U.S. gas stations hit $3.6918 a gallon – the highest since March 22, 2013 and up 43 cents this year.  Much of this price depends on global supply and demand, but certainly not all of it.  In fact, two archaic, little-known U.S. policies – vigorously defended by the well-connected interest groups who benefit from them – restrict free trade in petroleum products and, as a result,…
  • Oil & Gas Exports Event: Video and Materials (and Two Important Updates)

    12 Feb 2014 | 4:00 pm
    If you weren't lucky enough to hear me, Mark Perry and Jim Bacchus opine on the "shale revolution" and the myriad problems with current US policy on oil and gas exports, you're in luck: Cato just posted the video, which is also imbedded below.If you'd like a closer look at Mark's or my presentation, you can download them here and here, respectively.  They remain up to date, except for two big developments that warrant mention:First, a few minutes after the Cato event ended, Senator Ted Cruz announced a comprehensive energy plan, one of the core planks of which is the…
  • Upcoming Cato Event on Oil & Gas Exports

    23 Jan 2014 | 11:44 am
    The Cato Institute will be hosting a great event on February 10, 2014 on oil and gas exports.  Details are below, and registration information is available at Cato's website. Hope you can make it.Boom to Bust? How Export Restrictions Imperil America’s Oil and Gas BonanzaFebruary 10, 2014 11:30AM Hayek Auditorium Featuring James Bacchus, Former WTO Appellate Body Jurist and Former U.S. Congressman; Scott Lincicome, Cato Institute Adjunct Scholar and International Trade Attorney; and Mark Perry, Professor of Economics, University of Michigan–Flint, and American Enterprise…
  • Are Liberalized US Crude Oil Exports Finally on the Horizon?

    7 Jan 2014 | 4:19 pm
    As I mentioned a few weeks ago, a large segment of the energy policy world has suddenly realized that America's archaic crude oil export restrictions are really, really bad policy.  But things have just been kicked into an even higher gear with two new developments:In a much-publicized speech today, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), ranking member of the Senate Energy Committee, advocated modernizing US policies for energy exports, particularly natural gas and crude oil.  Accompanying her speech was a new white paper on the same topic, which (among other…
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    Jesse's Café Américain

  • Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Metals Bounce, Huge Week for Events and News Coming

    25 Jul 2014 | 1:24 pm
    Gold and silver bounced back quite a bit from the bear raid earlier this week. Things are so boring on the Comex I think they didn't bother to update the clearing reports or the warehouse data. Next week is going to be a huge week for news. First off we have a Comex option expiration on Monday the 28th. Next, we will be seeing a trifecta of metals sensitive news events including 2nd
  • SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Ho Hum

    25 Jul 2014 | 1:15 pm
    Earnings and geopolitical events continued to drive the US markets this week. As for geopolitical events, since nothing blew up within the last 24 hours, the markets pretty much forgot about them, including plague, wars, and rumours of war. As for earnings, they are mediocre, and stocks gave back some of their gains today on that disappointment. Next week ought to be action packed. I will
  • Beloved CEO Fired By Board For Being Insufficiently Ruthless: Employees Leave Jobs In Protest

    24 Jul 2014 | 10:20 pm
    "Just remember this, Mr. Potter, that this rabble you're talking about,  they do most of the working and paying and living and dying in this community. Well, is it too much to have them work and pay and live and die in a couple of decent rooms and a bath? Anyway, my father didn't think so. People were human beings to him. But to you, a warped,
  • Joy

    24 Jul 2014 | 12:27 pm
    If I have learned anything in the past few years, it is that work and money and the markets are only things.   Important things perhaps, but only as means to the ends.  The ends are where the real stores of value in our lives reside. And so I will enjoy the rest of the day, and be back tomorrow.  And the markets will still be there, as I hope that you and I will also
  • The Sirens Sweetly Singing

    24 Jul 2014 | 10:58 am
    'Free' as in free storage is perhaps a red flag for potential risk, according to Ted Butler as he muses in his latest article, Still Waters Run Deep. I think there is an obvious and substantial difference between the unallocated metals accounts at Kitco and Perth in terms of 'backing' given that Perth has ties to the government, and Kitco is working through an insolvency.
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    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • Repressive diversity

    chris dillow
    25 Jul 2014 | 6:19 am
    Nick Cohen describes how "diversity" can be used to justify illiberal inequality. I suspect this might be true in another way. What I mean is that there might be less diversity of opinion and character now than there was in the past. Naturally, I can't quantify this, but consider some of the types of character and belief which I think are not as common as they should be:  - small state Keynesians. It's possible to favour both fiscal activism and a small state - as Keynes himself did. But almost nobody now falls into this camp; pro- and anti-fiscalists map quite closely…
  • See no evil

    chris dillow
    24 Jul 2014 | 6:48 am
    Simon Wren Lewis says that the commentariat's tendency to excuse the coalition's reckless fiscal policy is due in part to groupthink:   Very Serious People’ talk to each other more often than they talk to people acquainted with the data. His point is broader and more powerful than generally realized. The fact that the ruling class talks amongst itself produces a systematic class bias. A new paper by Agne Kajackaite explains how. She got students to solve some puzzles, being paid per puzzle solved. But she also arranged that, for some people, successful solutions would not just…
  • On crowding out

    chris dillow
    23 Jul 2014 | 5:20 am
    This morning, I got into a Twitter row with Jackart. He says: "State spending CAUSES lack of private investment." I agree with him that this can happen sometimes. But I disagree with him that it happened with Gordon Brown's fiscal loosening in the mid-00s. My chart provides some background. It shows that in the mid-00s - well before the financial crisis - the government did start to run a deficit. And companies ran a surplus, with retained profits exceeding capital spending. It's also clear that, over time, these two financial balances have been mirrors of each other; the…
  • Blair's legacy

    chris dillow
    22 Jul 2014 | 6:34 am
    Most of the retrospectives on Tony Blair, prompted by the 20th anniversary of his becoming Labour leader strike me as missing something. Whilst I agree with Stephen, James and John that Britain was better place when Blair left office than when he arrived, I also largely agree with Janan: He governed with the grain of history, nudging it along from time to time, but never upending a country that was functioning well enough.By the 1990s, Britons wanted their market economy to come with better public services, and Mr Blair gave them some approximation of that settlement. They had grown liberal…
  • Internalizing constraints

    chris dillow
    21 Jul 2014 | 6:10 am
    Fans of that great 1970s TV series Colditz will remember an episode in which an inmate tries to feign madness in order to get repatriated to Britain, only to actually go mad. I was reminded of this by Ed Miliband's speech at the weekend. It contains sins of comission and omission. The sin of commission is the economically illiterate statement "You and I know we won’t have the money" and the very dubious "commitment to balancing the books in the next government". I say this is dubious because it poses so many questions: why should it be fiscal policy more than…
 
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    David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

  • Back to the peak

    David Smith
    25 Jul 2014 | 4:30 am
    For all the caveats about per capita GDP - not something that usually gets much emphasis in the policy debate - this was another good GDP number, following on from the symbolic uprating of UK growth forecasts by the International...
  • An independent Scotland risks a Greek tragedy

    David Smith
    20 Jul 2014 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. This will not be my last look at Scottish independence between now and the September 18 referendum but it will keep us going for now. I...
  • Don't blame Superpound for Britain's export woes

    David Smith
    13 Jul 2014 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Official figures a few days ago for industrial production in Britain produced a surprise. And, for once, it was not a pleasant one. Overall industrial output...
  • Inequality: always with us but less than it was

    David Smith
    6 Jul 2014 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Inequality is always with us and it never loses its power to provoke debate. This year, of course, we have had a bestselling book on it,...
  • IEA's shadow MPC votes 8-1 to hike rates

    David Smith
    6 Jul 2014 | 1:59 am
    In its email poll closing Wednesday 2nd July, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) recommended by eight votes to one that Bank Rate should be raised on July 10th, including five votes for a rise...
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    Top Gun Financial Planning

  • It’s A Bull Market

    Greg Feirman
    16 Jul 2014 | 4:12 am
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. The S&P is up another 1% since I last checked in in early June (“That 2013 Feeling”, June 9) and what I said then still applies.  The path of least resistance continues to be higher. The stock market sold off yesterday on the following comments by Fed Chair Janet Yellen: Valuation metrics in…
  • That 2013 Feeling

    Greg Feirman
    8 Jun 2014 | 7:41 pm
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. Only a few weeks ago the S&P seemed stuck below 1900 and market sentiment had turned bearish.  Star hedge fund manager David Tepper punctuated the bearishness when he told an audience full of investors at the SALT Conference in Las Vegas “Don’t be too frickin’ long”. A few weeks…
  • The Carnage Beneath The Surface

    Greg Feirman
    10 May 2014 | 2:14 pm
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. Despite the relatively muted action in the major market indexes something big is happening beneath the surface.  While the Dow and S&P are within striking distance of their all time highs, many of the leading stocks from last year have suffered a beating in the last couple of months.  A chart from BeSpoke…
  • Why Stocks Could Keep Going Higher In 2014

    Greg Feirman
    28 Dec 2013 | 1:27 pm
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. ***** I have finally come around to the view that the path of least resistance for stocks is higher. The first and most important reason is that the Fed and global central banks remain highly accommodative.  The much feared Fed taper finally occurred two weeks ago – and stocks rocketed higher!  One reason could be that…
  • Bull Markets Don’t Last Forever

    Greg Feirman
    9 Nov 2013 | 6:25 am
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. A number of factors have coalesced in recent weeks that merit attention. First, consider the overall context.  We are now almost 5 years into one of the greatest bull markets in history.  Bull markets don’t last forever.  According to Jim Stack of Investech, the average bull market since 1932 lasts 3.8 years.  Odds are…
 
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    Project Syndicate RSS-Feed

  • The Facebook Furor

    Esther Dyson
    25 Jul 2014 | 2:00 am
    A pyschological experiment conducted by Facebook on nearly 700,000 unwitting users has sparked widespread outrage, with users accusing the company of manipulating them to advance its own interests. But such complaints miss the point.
  • After the Dollar

    José Antonio Ocampo
    25 Jul 2014 | 2:00 am
    China’s rise has made the world increasingly disinclined to tolerate the instability caused by a US dollar-denominated system. The solution, however, lies not in replacing the dollar with the renminbi, but in strengthening the role of the world’s only truly global currency: the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights.
  • Bonds of the Diaspora

    Mahmoud Mohieldin, et al.
    25 Jul 2014 | 2:00 am
    With official development assistance insufficient to finance development needs in many poor countries, one resource that merits attention are the remittances and savings sent home by nationals working abroad. The challenge is to channel this income effectively.
  • The Global Security Deficit

    Michael Spence
    25 Jul 2014 | 2:00 am
    Summer is normally a time to take a break from the risks and worries of everyday life, and perhaps to take stock of where we are and where we are heading. But this is increasingly difficult, because our everyday lives are becoming so much riskier and more worrying.
  • One Hundred Days of Servitude

    Gordon Brown
    25 Jul 2014 | 2:00 am
    Education campaigners and activists for girls’ rights held vigils around the world this week to mark the 100th day since more than 200 Nigerian girls were abducted from their school in Chibok. The “Bring Back Our Girls” campaign has spurred a global movement for recognition of girls’ rights – a movement led by girls themselves.
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    Benzinga Feeds

  • 2 Signs The Market Is Stuck In Neutral

    Dave Moenning
    25 Jul 2014 | 11:16 am
    In the early going, the word of the day appears to be "improvement." China's Flash PMI reading improved to an 18-month high with a reading of 52.0. This suggests that growth is accelerating in the manufacturing sector of the world's second largest economy, which, of course, is a good thing.
  • 3 Benefits Of The Detroit Red Wings' $650 Million Arena District

    Jason Shubnell
    25 Jul 2014 | 6:59 am
    The Detroit Red Wings and Olympia Entertainment announced the development of a $650 million sports and entertainment district this week.
  • Orders For Durable Goods Rebound In June

    Dave Moenning
    25 Jul 2014 | 6:12 am
    The Commerce Department reported that orders for Durable Goods (items expected to last longer than a year) rose +0.7% during the month of June which was above the consensus expectations for an increase of +0.5%. The advance was attributed mainly to a sharp increase in the Pentagon's demand for military aircraft. The June reading was well above May's revised reading of -1.0% (from -0.9%).
  • #PreMarket Primer: Friday, July 25: Russia Accused Of Actively Engaging Ukraine

    Laura Brodbeck
    25 Jul 2014 | 4:04 am
    On Thursday, the US accused Russia of firing across its border in an attempt to take out Ukrainian military posts in what are the most serious allegations that Moscow is fueling the conflict in Ukraine.
  • Markets Steady Despite Mixed Economic Data

    Jayson Derrick
    24 Jul 2014 | 1:42 pm
    U.S. stocks were little changed as economic data came in mixed. The Commerce Department reported that new home sales fell in the month June, while initial jobless claims came in better than expected.
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    OilPrice.com Daily News Update

  • This Week in Energy: A Busy, Grisly Week

    25 Jul 2014 | 10:57 am
    With the words “World War Three” being bandied about, it’s tough to decide which story to start with, but with the killing of at least 16 people (some reports say 15) by an apparent rocket strike of a U.N.-run school sheltering Palestinians in Northern Gaza, the Israeli/Palestinian conflict seemed to come into the sharpest focus as this week came to a close. Just one day after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry left his Cairo diplomacy headquarters to make a surprise visit to press Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into…Read more...
  • Another Export Route for Oil Sands Blocked

    24 Jul 2014 | 3:06 pm
    A city council in Maine took action on June 21 that all but blocks off another export route for Canada’s oil sands. The South Portland City Council voted 6-1 to block the export of oil from its waterfront, citing concerns about local air and water pollution. The vote potentially kills off a larger plan by the oil industry to connect Alberta’s oil sands to the Atlantic Coast. South Portland, Maine is a key piece of the puzzle because it is home to the end of a pipeline that runs between the coast and Montreal. The pipeline currently…Read more...
  • California’s Progressive, Divisive Cap and Trade Plan

    24 Jul 2014 | 2:58 pm
    California is claiming the environmental high ground by preparing to take the next step in its carbon reduction plan, but the result may leave drivers fuming. Starting on January 1, 2015, a cap and trade system will go into effect for all transportation fuels in California, including, of course, gasoline. Oil companies are predicting it will mean an immediate increase of at least 12 cents a gallon at the pump.Utilities and heavy manufacturers in the Golden State already have to pay to emit carbon through the Global Warming Solutions Act, passed…Read more...
  • Whose Oil Will Quench China’s Thirst?

    24 Jul 2014 | 2:53 pm
    As the heir-in-waiting to the title of world’s largest economy, China finds itself in a strange position in terms of its oil consumption. In September 2013, China became the biggest net importer of crude, beating out the U.S. for the first time. This came as no surprise, given how rapidly China’s thirst for oil has grown, although landing in top place happened a little ahead of U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) predictions that it would take place in 2014. However, where the U.S. has been shoring up its own internal production, China…Read more...
  • World Oil Production at 3/31/2014–Where are We Headed?

    24 Jul 2014 | 2:09 pm
    The standard way to make forecasts of almost anything is to look at recent trends and assume that this trend will continue, at least for the next several years. With world oil production, the trend in oil production looks fairly benign, with the trend slightly upward (Figure 1).Figure 1. Quarterly crude and condensate oil production, based on EIA data.If we look at the situation more closely, however, we see that we are dealing with an unstable situation. The top ten crude oil producing countries have a variety of problems (Figure 2). Middle Eastern…Read more...
 
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    zentrader.ca

  • Strength In Aluminum Stocks Good For Markets

    jeff pierce
    22 Jul 2014 | 11:20 pm
    By Jeff Pierce AA and CENX showed up on my momentum scans today not because they had big moves, but because the overall strength of their trend is so strong. It’s generally a good thing for the general markets when this sector is doing well and we can often expect the markets to continue to rise. Trends don’t turn on a dime and while in the short term they may be a little overbought these trends can go on for far longer then we can imagine. AA – with a weekly RSI of 88 this is definitely overheated. A pullback in the $13-14 range should be the perfect area to add to this if…
  • Look At This Stock – CBSO

    jeff pierce
    21 Jul 2014 | 7:23 pm
    By Jeff Pierce I really meant to post this update over the weekend so obviously it’s not going to have the impact as this stock spiked over 4% today, but I think there’s more upside in this one to be had. Technically it has a very clear channel forming and it should have no problem getting back to the upper trendline. Low float of 22 million will surely add to the volatility but I think there’s a much better chance of this going over $37 then revisiting $32. The RSI has been behaving bullishly as it oscillates between 80-40.  20% of the float is short so as this moves…
  • International Financial Show-Down Looming?

    karen starich
    18 Jul 2014 | 1:50 pm
    By Astrology Traders I want to thank one of our subscribers, for bringing to my attention the latest alert from conspiracy writer Benjamin Fulford-July 7, 2014 Read the full article here The video presentation of Christine Lagarde in the article is presented as an occult message to the power elite using numerological theories.  In the video she presents the number 7 in multiple date sequences.  In my view the entire presentation is comical and has nothing to do with anything, except to confuse people who follow Fullford.  The purpose was a distraction from the real number sequences that…
  • Don’t Panic Until Call Options Fail

    chris
    17 Jul 2014 | 2:06 pm
    By Chris Ebert Note to readers: I’ll be away for a few days. The normal detailed options analysis of the S&P 500, and its implications for the stock market, will return Sunday July 27. As of July 17, the S&P had not breached the 1930 level – an important level because of its effect on Long Call* and Married Put* option trading, and the historical implications those option trades have on the emotions that drive future stock prices. Long Calls and Married Puts won’t suffer losses unless the S&P falls below 1930 over the next several weeks. Historically, as long as at-the-money…
  • Tracking Existing & Current Investments With A Mobile App

    Jeff Pierce
    16 Jul 2014 | 7:27 am
    This article is contributed by Eddie Steiner As individuals and companies rely more and more on mobile communications devices such as smartphones and tablets, so the number of apps that are available has increased, carrying out everything from banking transactions to finding the nearest coffee shop. Today’s consumers are demanding apps that are well-designed, user-friendly and perform well. Maximising mobile user experience or ‘ux’ is essential if the app is to achieve its key objectives, which are to generate new business, enable easy access to stored information, and to…
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    NEW ECONOMY

  • Why Target Stopped Asking Job Applicants If They've Been Convicted of a Crime

    Nur Lalji
    18 Jul 2014 | 11:30 am
    Kissy Mason and her son call on Target to change its hiring practices at the company's corporate headquarters in May 2012. Photo courtesy of TakeAction Minnesota. Kissy Mason understands the importance of second chances. As she grew up in Minneapolis in the '80s and '90s, she watched her family members move in and out of prison and saw the discrimination they faced as a result. “People in my family were being locked up, and then they were locked out of a right to live, a right to employment,” she said. Unemployment is a huge barrier to the success of ex-offenders outside prison walls.
  • These Young People Are Pioneering Appalachia's Post-Coal Economy

    Joe Solomon
    17 Jul 2014 | 11:45 am
    Joe Solomon is a campaigner with Energy Action Coalition. Highlander Center staff and Appalachian Transition Fellows don helmets in preparation for a trip into a mine at the Coal Mine Museum in Benham, Ky. Photo by Catherine Moore. In the Hunger Games novels, heroine Katniss Everdeen comes from a coal mining region known as District 12. Her people are poor and looked down upon, but they’re also resourceful and know how to work together. In the end, it’s those skills that allow Katniss and her friend Peeta to win the games against better-trained rivals from the wealthy capital. You could…
  • Welcome to the Spanish Town Where People Come Before Profit

    Liam Barrington-Bush
    16 Jul 2014 | 5:14 pm
    This article originally appeared at Contributoria.com. A modified photograph of a mural in Marinaleda by Rocío Garcia Montes / Flickr. In the south of Spain, the street is the collective living room. Vibrant sidewalk cafes are interspersed between configurations of two to five lawn chairs where neighbors come together to chat over the day’s events late into the night. In mid-June the weather peaks well over 100 degrees Fahrenheit and the smells of fresh seafood waft from kitchens and restaurants as the seasonably late dining hour approaches. Marinaleda boasts a modest but steady local…
  • Gar Alperovitz on Why the New Economy Movement Needs to Think Big

    Scott Gast
    2 Jul 2014 | 3:40 pm
    Photo by Walter Corno / Flickr. It’s possible that the future of the American economy arrived 37 years ago, on a drizzly, gray day in Youngstown, Ohio. That morning, in 1977, residents woke to the news that Youngstown Sheet and Tube, a large steel mill and major provider of good, well-paying jobs in the area, was to shut its doors, putting five thousand people out of work. It was the first among a series of blows to the city, which would eventually lose half its population and sink into Rust Belt decrepitude. Click here to subscribe to YES! But something else happened in the wake of the day…
  • Worker-Owned Co-ops Get $1 Million in NYC Spending

    Liz Pleasant
    27 Jun 2014 | 3:55 pm
    Photo by Premshree Pillai / Flickr. New York City’s budget for the 2015 fiscal year includes a new item that supporters of a fairer economy will want to celebrate: $1.2 million set aside for the development of worker-owned cooperative businesses. "Support shows that they understand cooperatives can be a viable tool for economic development that creates real opportunity." The spending is a small fraction of the $75 billion budget, which the City Council approved on June 26. But, according to a statement by U.S. Federation of Worker Cooperatives, it's the largest investment in the sector ever…
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    Central Bank News

  • Trinidad holds rate, to manage inflation expectations

    centralbanknews.info
    25 Jul 2014 | 2:36 pm
        Trinidad and Tobago's central bank maintained its benchmark repo rate at 2.75 percent to support the economy, but said it was "giving greater considerations to managing inflationary expectations in calibrating its monetary policy instruments" as the pace of economic activity strengthens.    The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, which has kept its rate steady since September 2012, said core inflation was relatively stable in the first half of the year, but "rising consumer demand, higher government spending and second round effects from the recent increase in cement…
  • Central Bank News Link List - July 25, 2014 - Brazil central bank reduces bank reserve requirements

    centralbanknews.info
    25 Jul 2014 | 8:38 am
    Here's today's Central Bank News' link list click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.Brazil central bank reduces bank reserve requirements (MNI)Too early to debate monetary policy exit, Japan economy minister (Reuters)Mexico central bank says rate hold decision unanimous-minutes (Reuters)Interest rate hikes will be mindful of weak economic growth: Marcus (BDlive)Mr. Carney’s…
  • Russia raises rate 50 bps and will raise more if needed

    centralbanknews.info
    25 Jul 2014 | 3:50 am
        Russia's central bank raised its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 8.0 percent to reduce inflation and pledged it would raise rates further if inflation expectations remain heightened and inflation threatens to exceed its target in coming years.    The Bank of Russia, which adopted an inflation-targeting regime on Feb. 1, has now raised its rate three times this year by a total of 250 basis points following rate rises in March and April.    Russia's headline inflation rate accelerated further in June to 7.8 percent, the fifth month in a row of rising…
  • Central Bank News Link List - July 24, 2014 - IMF cuts global growth outlook, warns of stagnation risk

    centralbanknews.info
    24 Jul 2014 | 11:20 am
    Here's today's Central Bank News' link list click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.IMF cuts global growth outlook, warns of stagnation risk in rich nations (Reuters)Brazil signals rate unlikely to fall as prices persist (Bloomberg)Turkish central bank leaves inflation forecasts unchanged (Reuters)Russia seen holding rates as sanctions constrain policy (Bloomberg)Greenspan says…
  • New Zealand raises rate for 4th time but will now pause

    centralbanknews.info
    23 Jul 2014 | 2:05 pm
        New Zealand's central bank raised its policy rate for the fourth time in a row but signaled that it would keep rates on hold for a while, saying it was "prudent that there now be a period of assessment before interest rates adjust further towards a more-neutral level."    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by another 25 basis points to 3.50 percent, as widely expected, and has now raised it by a total of 100 basis points since March when it became the first central bank among the advanced economies to raise its rate since July…
 
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    Business Insider

  • What Is Fracking? This Simple Animation Is The Best Explanation We've Ever Seen

    Rob Wile
    26 Jul 2014 | 3:54 am
    U.S. oil production remains at its highest level since the mid-80s, and it's all thanks to incredible developments in hydraulic fracturing. Marathon Oil has a great animation on the basics of hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking."  We found it thanks to Mark Perry's blog. Intended for novices, it explains how horizontal drilling works and explains the roles of water and sand. Not surprisingly, the video doesn't spend much time on the controversies surrounding the environmental risks.  That discussion is for another time. For now, check out these key points from the animation that will…
  • Marc Andreessen Calls Out Everyone Who Has Doubted Facebook Over The Years

    Gus Lubin
    26 Jul 2014 | 3:27 am
    Facebook stock blasted to new highs this week after blow-out earnings with astounding user growth and vast revenue opportunities ahead. Venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, who was an early Facebook investor and currently sits on the company board, is taking the opportunity to call out people who have doubted the company over the years. Tweet storms by @pmarca are always fun and have included commentary on how to kill a startup and more. This one is ongoing: [<a href="//storify.com/twitofgus/marc-andreessen-calls-out-everyone-who-doubted-sil" target="_blank">View the…
  • The Rise Of The Chinese Box Office Is Staggering, And It's Transforming Hollywood

    Allan Smith
    25 Jul 2014 | 10:10 pm
    The Chinese box office grew by an astounding 27% to $3.6 billion in 2013, according to the Motion Picture Association of America. To put that number in comparison, China's $900 million dollars box office growth was more than the total size of all but eight international box offices. China brought in $1.2 billion more than second place Japan and $1.9 billion more than the third place United Kingdom. The U.S./Canada market remained the largest at $10.9 billion, up 1% from 2012. Globally, box office revenue increased 4%. Although China's box office won't soon overtake the U.S.,…
  • Y Combinator President Says Diversity Is A Huge Issue For Tech And His Companies Are Trying To Fix It

    Joey Cosco
    25 Jul 2014 | 5:19 pm
    In the wake of a string of tech companies releasing their diversity statistics, the subject has become a hot debate around the internet. Y Combinator President Sam Altman thinks that's a dumb thing to debate. To Altman and his startup accelerator, diversity is an important issue that needs to be addressed industry-wide, he wrote in a Friday blog post. "One of the most insidious things happening in the debate is people claiming versions of 'other industries may have problems with sexism, but our industry doesn’t,'" he wrote. "Both men and women claim this, even though it keeps…
  • 13 Mindblowing Facts About Texas

    Elena Holodny
    25 Jul 2014 | 5:04 pm
    We've all heard the saying "Everything's bigger in Texas" — and we're here to show you that it's true. The Lone Star State is home to nearly 26.5 million people, or 8.4% of the total U.S. population. Most of this population is concentrated around cities including Houston, Dallas, and Austin. Texas contains a major portion of the U.S. economy. Its total gross domestic product is $1.43 trillion, which is approximately 8.5% of the entire U.S. GDP. Although Texas is primarily known for its oil, it is also the leader in wind power development, and has a large aerospace and aviation industry.
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    Business + Economy – Articles – The Conversation

  • Superannuation: make income the outcome

    Robert C. Merton, Nobel Laureate, Professor of Finance, School of Management at Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    24 Jul 2014 | 1:29 pm
    The emphasis on the lump sum in superannuation unfairly moves risk to individuals.Image sourced from www.shutterstock.comHaving led the world in the 1990s in embracing defined contribution retirement plans, Australia now is rightly reviewing whether the design of its retirement income system is meeting the needs of Australians living in retirement. David Murray’s interim report into Australia’s financial systems noted the particular strengths of this three-pillar system, which comprises the age pension, compulsory superannuation guarantee and voluntary private savings. With more than…
  • Malaysia Airlines now faces stark choices in a battle to survive

    Ian Douglas, Senior Lecturer, UNSW Aviation at UNSW Australia
    23 Jul 2014 | 10:18 pm
    Malaysia Airlines faces restructuring if it wants to survive.EPA/Olaf KraakThe airline industry has a history of poor financial returns. On a global basis the cost of capital hasn’t been recovered any time in the past 25 years, and in 2014 the industry-wide profit forecast by the International Air Transport Association equates to little more than $4 per passenger. Some carriers do worse than others. Malaysia Airlines (MAS) was struggling even before the loss of MH370 in March 2014, and the loss of MH17 in July 2014 can only compound the problems of the airline. Largely state-owned, and…
  • Asylum seekers and the dignity of work

    Peter Mares, Adjunct fellow Swinburne Institute for Social Research, Contributing Editor, Inside Story at Swinburne University of Technology
    23 Jul 2014 | 1:18 pm
    Less than welcoming... policies that prevent asylum seekers working are dehumanising.AAP Image/Newzulu/Zebedee ParkesMy interview with Mr Syed did not get off to a great start. We’d arranged to meet at the Dandenong library – part of the city council building, a huge, bright orange edifice in the redeveloped heart of Dandenong in Melbourne’s southeast. I was early and kept a close watch on the library’s sliding doors as rain showers blew across the civic plaza outside. Various men who might conceivably have been asylum seekers from the subcontinent came and went but none of them…
  • Little hard data in the hard area of foreign investment

    Margaret McKenzie, Lecturer, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance at Deakin University
    23 Jul 2014 | 1:18 pm
    We must address patchy data collection to get an accurate picture of foreign property investment.ABSA large portion of commentary on foreign investment in Australia is based on scant data, as recent submissions to the inquiry into foreign investment in residential property show. At the moment it seems the only body collecting any data on this sensitive issue is the Foreign Investment Review Board, and that appears limited. Even the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Reserve Bank admitted to the O'Dwyer inquiry its staff rely on trade magazines and newspapers to identify foreign real estate…
  • Evidence-based medicine is broken: why we need data and technology to fix it

    David Glance, Director of Innovation, Faculty of Arts, Director of Centre for Software Practice at University of Western Australia
    23 Jul 2014 | 6:50 am
    Evidence based medicine A recent paper in the British Medical Journal suggests that evidence-based medicine is in crisis. Evidence-based medicine is based on the practice of employing treatments that have scientific research that backs up their effectiveness. It is usually set against medical practice that is based on anecdotal experience or simply doing things because that is the way they always have been done. Ways evidence-based medicine is broken The authors of the paper point out however that there are a number of problems with evidence-based medicine that together, significantly…
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    Mindful Money » Shaun Richards

  • The UK economy breaks new ground or rather the service sector does

    Shaun Richards
    25 Jul 2014 | 3:16 am
    Today is a day which is in tune with the hot sunny weather that most of the UK has been receiving recently. This is because the UK economy has now officially broken new ground compared to its past pre credit crunch peak. From the Office for National Statistics. In Q2 2014 GDP was estimated to be 0.2% above the peak in Q1 2008. From peak to trough in 2009, the economy shrank by 7.2%. So we have clambered some 7.4% higher since the credit crunch hit us. However there is a nuance to this which is that it is an aggregate number that has been achieved by more people than before, so in terms of per…
  • Spain continues a more than welcome economic recovery

    Shaun Richards
    24 Jul 2014 | 4:01 am
    The economy of Spain has been through quite a boom and then bust in the last decade. This was driven at first by the credit crunch but was then followed by another dip caused by the banking and housing markets. This meant that the Spanish economy contracted by 1.6% in 2012 and by 1.2% in 2013. However 2014 has started more positively and the Bank of spain added to the postivity yesterday with its latest forecasts.  On the information available, GDP is estimated to have increased at a quarter-on-quarter rate of 0.5% (compared with 0.4% in Q1). Following four consecutive quarters of quarterly…
  • The Bank of England blows its own trumpet but what purpose is it now serving?

    Shaun Richards
    23 Jul 2014 | 3:33 am
    Today has seen the Bank of England reveal more details about its past and present economic policies. If we look backwards apparently its performance was much better than we thought! Let us investigate the thoughts of Paul Fisher who has given a type of valedictory statement to the Independent newspaper this morning as he reviews the end of his term on the Monetary Policy Committee which started in March 2009. The headline sets the tone. ‘The Bank delivered the recovery’ Not much sign of modesty and we observe plenty of self-awarded praise as the article goes on. “A number of our…
  • How do we defuse the UK student debt time bomb?

    Shaun Richards
    22 Jul 2014 | 3:54 am
    One of the features of the credit crunch era is that the engaging of reverse gear for the UK economy followed by a period of flatlining made our debt problems look worse. During that period we crossed our fingers and both hoped and prayed for some persistent economic growth. However we have found that so far our growth spurt has not brought all the benefits  we wished for as for example the public-sector fiscal deficit has disappointed more and more as the months have passed. Accordingly the situation looks another example of an assymetric relationship where a shrinking economy boosts the…
  • What will happen next to the UK economy?

    Shaun Richards
    21 Jul 2014 | 3:21 am
    Later this week on July 25th we will receive the figures for economic growth (Gross Domestic Product) for the UK in the second quarter of 2014. Finally we will be able to observe a set of numbers which surpass those of the pre credit crunch era although it will only be by a small amount. So for those like the NIESR (National Institute for Economic and Social Research) who argue that periods below past economic output peaks are an economic depression then we have just exited a depression which lasted for 6 years. That seems particularly grim when put like that and in fact that is rather…
 
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    SurvivalBlog.com

  • Notes for Saturday – July 26, 2014

    Hugh James Latimer
    25 Jul 2014 | 6:15 pm
    Today we present another entry for Round 53 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The $11,000+ worth of prizes for this round include: First Prize: A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course (a $1,195 value), A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready…
  • Why Trying To Start A Garden Now May Be A Little Too Late For TEOTWAWKI, by BPW

    Hugh James Latimer
    25 Jul 2014 | 6:15 pm
    Here’s a little about myself. I work in law enforcement. I grew up in suburbia, was a Marine and outdoorsy person, yet I have never really, truly gardened. I can’t. I work full time and own a home (in a development). I have two children, who run me all over the place, and I have never had a green thumb. I do hunt, and I do that well. So, I figured how hard is planting some seeds in the ground and growing some vegetables. Well, my experience woke me up and am I glad that it did, because had I not started my garden last year, I would have had a rude awakening come the fall of…
  • Letter Re: Books For Home Schoolers

    Hugh James Latimer
    25 Jul 2014 | 6:14 pm
    I saw your list of recommended reading for young people, especially those being educated at home by their parents. I would like to add my own list. Anything by Stephen W. Meader (1892-1977). Meader published 44 novels in his lifetime. The subjects range from entrepreneurial to adventure to American history. The grammar, vocabulary, and storytelling qualities are first rate. His books are set during difficult times, including the American Revolution, the westward expansion, the War Between the States, and the Great Depression. Characters are mostly young men trying to make a living through…
  • Economics and Investing:

    Hugh James Latimer
    25 Jul 2014 | 6:13 pm
    8,000 businesses flee Maryland. – H.L. o o o Items from Mr. Econocobas: America The Divided IMF Fears Ultra-Low Rates Are Fuelling Asset Bubbles- Oh Geez, Really?? Mars, Maker of M&M’s, to Raise Chocolate Prices 7 Percent
  • Odds ‘n Sods:

    Hugh James Latimer
    25 Jul 2014 | 6:13 pm
    Some excellent video of solar storms that could have wreaked havoc on earth. People wonder why we prep? How a solar storm two years ago nearly caused a catastrophe on Earth. – G.G. o o o Notice that the only way to ensure your phone is “off” is to remove the battery. Sorry, iPhone users.Can the NSA spy on your phone when it’s turned off? – Plain Jane Prepper o o o Al Qaeda Targeting U.S. Infrastructure for Digital 9/11. – G.P. o o o It seems similar to the IRS scandal in the U.S. Hopefully, Revenue Canada backs up their email and hard drives. Tax audits…
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    OpenMarkets

  • BlackRock Strategist: Correction Not Far Away

    Genna Pirrong
    25 Jul 2014 | 2:44 pm
      Russ Koesterich, the chief investment strategist at BlackRock, predicted that the equities market could get nasty and a correction is not far away. Koesterich told CNBC’s Futures Now that he thinks there are two factors in the near term that could potentially lead to this correction: (1) a spike in the price of oil caused by the worsening of the geopolitical situation in the Ukraine or the Middle East and (2) investor fears that the Fed will exit quantitative elasing and raise interest rates. Because of the current complacency in the market, he advises investors to take out some…
  • MARKET UPDATE: EARNINGS DON’T DISAPPOINT

    OpenMarkets
    24 Jul 2014 | 2:35 pm
      It’s been a big week for Earnings with most of the companies we’ve seen so far beating estimates.  Earnings along with jobless claims and other economic data has made for a week that hasn’t disappointed.
  • Market Update: Where is Inflation Headed?

    OpenMarkets
    22 Jul 2014 | 4:18 pm
      Earnings continue to drive the market — but its not just today’s Apple and Microsoft announcements. Inflation expectations are still developing. Jack says keep watching the month to month and year to year inflation growth and how the Fed and equity markets will react.
  • Market Update: The Ukraine Impact

    OpenMarkets
    21 Jul 2014 | 4:10 pm
      As the world focuses on the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Jack reminds us that a lot of the wealth in Russia is concentrated in a few individuals. If strict sanctions are imposed, as expected, look for some of those dollars to be repatriated back towards Russia. Also, earnings continue and volatility will follow with a lot of Dow stocks reporting this week.
  • MONDAY OUTLOOK: A LOOK AT FOOD INFLATION

    OpenMarkets
    21 Jul 2014 | 3:23 pm
      As the Fed looks to inflation as a major indicator on when to raise the target federal funds rate, they may include recent food inflation in their consideration. Blu Putnam describes why here.  By the measure of the Producer Price Index (PPI), food prices dropped slightly in June but are still up more than 2 percent over last year.  Recent research on the topic by the St. Louis Federal Reserve, however, suggests that food as a share of disposable income is at near all-time lows.  These are two different measures, but both are impacted by the prices of various commodity futures,…
 
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    eWallstreeter

  • A Quick Check-in on the Wage Front

    25 Jul 2014 | 2:22 pm
    We don’t yet have all the data I need to update my full-monty-wage-mash-up, but a few series to which I pay attention are now available for the first half of the year: median weekly earnings (MWE) of full-time workers and two flavors of average hourly earnings.  What do they show? Not much, in terms of... Read more
  • Gun control and Haldig

    25 Jul 2014 | 2:13 pm
    There are two views on gun control.  Those who study original intent believe that the Second Amendment applies to individuals. That’s clearly what the founders intended.  (Read Joyce Malcolm for the historical background of the 2nd Amendment.)  Those who focus on the precise wording of the amendment are split, but some believe it only applies to […]
  • What does the Gruber video tell us about Halbig?

    25 Jul 2014 | 12:30 pm
    When it comes to the exchange litigation, what should we make of the Jonathan Gruber video that just came to light? In 2012, Gruber, who was heavily involved in debates over the ACA, responded to a question from the audience after a speaking engagement: [T]hese health-insurance Exchanges … will be these new shopping places and […]
  • France Unemployment New High, Output Down 15th Month; Prices Drop 27th Month; Activity Up in Peripheral Europe; Outlook for Germany

    25 Jul 2014 | 12:19 pm
    The grim economic news from France keeps piling up. Today, Europe Online reports Number of Unemployed in France Hits New High. The number of unemployed people in France has hit a new high as the country grapples with the fallout of the financial crisis and a sluggish eurozone recovery, the Labour Department reported Friday.At the end of June, there were 3.398 million people who were registered as being without a job in the eurozone‘s second-largest economy - 0.3 per cent more than in the previ
  • Stand Up! – July 25, 2014

    25 Jul 2014 | 11:55 am
    I was a guest this morning on Stand Up! with Pete Dominick, which airs on Sirius/XM radio, channel 104 from 6-9AM Eastern. The show immediately replays on the channel, so those on the West Coast can listen at the same times. We talked about—you guessed it—Halbig and the exchange litigation. It was a hoot. It […]
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    The Last Embassy

  • Health-Care Supply: About Those Certificate-of-Need [CON] Statutes

    W.E. Heasley
    20 Jul 2014 | 6:27 am
    DO CERTIFICATE-OF-NEED LAWS INCREASE INDIGENT CARE? by Thomas Stratmann and Jacob W. Russ Abstract Many states have certificate-of-need regulations, which prohibit hospitals, nursing homes, and ambulatory surgical centers from entering new markets or making changes to the existing capacity of medical facilities without first gaining approval from certificate-of-need regulators. These
  • ACA/Obamacare: Fuzzy Funding -or- Here Comes The Funding Cliffs!

    W.E. Heasley
    14 Jul 2014 | 7:09 pm
    “Fasten your seat belts. Turbulence lies ahead for ObamaCare as funding streams for three programs are set to nose-dive. Millions of children could lose coverage, and millions more insured via Medicaid or ObamaCare plans could have an even tougher time finding a doctor. These funding cliffs weren't driven by policy but by politics: Provide short-term funding to get ObamaCare off the
  • ACA/Obamacare: Where Web Security is Job 57

    W.E. Heasley
    13 Jul 2014 | 7:21 pm
    ‘A Romanian attacker hacked the Vermont health exchange’s development server last December, gaining access at least 15 times and going undetected for a month, according to records obtained by National Review Online. CGI Group, the tech firm hired to build Vermont Health Connect, described the risk as “high” in a report about the attack. It also found possible evidence of sophisticated “
  • ACA/Obamacare: Subsidies Challenged in Multiple Law Suits

    W.E. Heasley
    7 Jul 2014 | 6:15 pm
    'Now, a bigger and more fundamental problem may lie ahead for Obamacare. As early as this week, a D.C. appellate court could rule against the administration on the most basic question: Are the massive premium subsidies flowing to low-income people through the federal insurance exchanges legal, or should that money be cut off? A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals is expected to
  • ACA/Obamacare: “Inconsistencies”, Reverse Tax Cliffs and 04/15/2015 Tax Day Disaster This Way Comes

    W.E. Heasley
    4 Jul 2014 | 4:30 am
    “The Obama administration is struggling to resolve data discrepancies that could jeopardize coverage for millions who sought health insurance on the federal exchange HealthCare.gov, according to a watchdog report on the still-rocky implementation of ObamaCare. Though the system's troubles have faded from the headlines since the problem-plagued launch last October, a report from the health
 
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    ftmdaily.com

  • Friday Q&A With Jerry Robinson – 7/25/14

    Jerry Robinson
    25 Jul 2014 | 9:23 am
    On today’s podcast, Jerry Robinson answers several listener questions, including: “Is the Iraqi dinar a good investment”, and “Which online stock broker is the best for trading?”Author... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • Special Guest Podcast: Investing with Jay Peroni

    Jerry Robinson
    24 Jul 2014 | 8:47 am
    Here is a sneak peak at our new 15 minute weekly podcast dedicated to providing investors with timely and actionable investing advice. Hosted by Jay Peroni, CFP, it will air every Saturday.Author... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • Mainstream Media: The Illusion of Choice

    Jerry Robinson
    23 Jul 2014 | 7:29 am
    On today's podcast, Jerry Robinson names the handful of multinational corporations that control over 90% of all media consumed within the U.S.Author informationJerry RobinsonPublisher at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • The Rise of the Chinese Yuan

    Jerry Robinson
    22 Jul 2014 | 8:04 am
    On today's podcast, Jerry Robinson comments on the rapid rise of the Chinese Yuan as a global currency and the challenge it poses to the U.S. Dollar.Author informationJerry RobinsonPublisher at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • Market Observations – 7/21/14

    Jerry Robinson
    21 Jul 2014 | 7:07 pm
    In this brief 15 minute "subscribers-only" video, Jerry Robinson shares his latest thoughts on the S&P 500, gold, silver, plus a brand new trading idea.Author informationJerry RobinsonPublisher... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
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    Exchange Rates UK - Currency News

  • Euro Exchange Rate Today - EUR to Dollar (USD) Lower on US Goods Figures

    Admin
    26 Jul 2014 | 4:00 am
    Euro rate today - The latest Euro to Dollar exchange rate lowers - Thursday saw the EUR strengthen against the Pound Sterling (GBP) and US Dollar (USD) as impressive data came in for the Markit Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMI for both the Eurozone and Germany. There was even some slightly brighter news for France as the... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Exchange Rates Forecast: Pound to Euro Rate Recovers, Pound to Dollar Slips From Best 2014 Levels

    Adam Solomon
    25 Jul 2014 | 5:00 am
    The Pound Sterling (GBP) again came under selling pressure against the majors on Thursday, with the pound to euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate finding near-term support just above 1.26 and the pound to dollar (US) falling below the significant support level at 1.70 GBP/USD and fell towards a low of 1.6960. The British currency also slumped... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Pound to Canadian Exchange Rate Today - GBP/CAD Dollar Softer, BOC Rate Cuts Debated

    Samuel Allen
    25 Jul 2014 | 5:00 am
    Pound to Canadian Dollar trends lower - After a week of setbacks for the UK and limited economic news for Canada, the Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate was trending in a weaker position. On Friday the GBP/CAD exchange rate was trading in the region of 1.8261. On Wednesday the Canadian Dollar was able to post a significant advance... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) Exchange Rate Falls Away from 2014 Best Exchange Levels on Strong US Data

    Adam Solomon
    24 Jul 2014 | 12:00 pm
    The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate shed almost 0.4% on Thursday, falling away from the best exchange rate levels seen in 2014 and below key 1.70 as US fundamentals outstripped UK reports amid further signs that the pace of the UK’s economic recovery might be slowing. Yesterday the Bank of England published unexpectedly... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Dollar to Pound Exchange Rate (USD GBP) Touches One Month High

    Tom Trevorrow
    24 Jul 2014 | 11:00 am
    The US Dollar to Pound has gained to one of the best exchange rate levels for over a month on Thursday with the GBP/USD now trading at 1.6975 down from a high of 1.7130. The Pound, which has been down for the last three days extended its decline against the US Dollar following the latest release of the US Jobless claims figures, which... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
 
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    BusinessClimate.com Blog

  • A Measure of Spirit: Cities With the Most Creative Connectivity

    Emily McMackin
    25 Jul 2014 | 6:00 am
    What do San Francisco, Boston and Nashville have in common? Not much it might seem, but these three cities were recently singled out as the most creative cities in America by Forbes. Unlike traditional rankings that measure creative vitality in cities by the presence of art galleries or patents, this list used new metrics to get a glimpse of the true creative spirit of a place. Taking the 50 largest MSAs, researchers at Sperling’s Best Places used crowdfunding websites like Kickstarter and Indiegogo as well as music sites like Bandcamp and ReverbNation to determine which cities had the…
  • Exports and FDI: New Avenues for Manufacturing

    Bill McMeekin
    23 Jul 2014 | 3:30 am
    It’s not a small world after all. In fact, it’s a big world with a big appetite for all types of products and commodities, providing a key source of opportunity, investment and jobs. And in the U.S., the impact on jobs of inbound foreign investment and outbound exports is significant and growing. New data from the U.S. International Trade Administration puts the number of U.S. jobs tied to exports at 11.3 million. Goods exports to Canada support nearly 1.3 million jobs, but the NAFTA region (which includes Canada) trails the Asia and Pacific region, to which exports account for…
  • Pro-Business States: One Recipe, Many Ingredients

    Bill McMeekin
    17 Jul 2014 | 3:30 am
    Pollina Corporate Real Estate has released its annual Pro-Business States ranking, based on 32 factors that, as the authors say, state governments can control, including taxes, human resources, education, regulatory environment, right-to-work legislation, energy costs, infrastructure spending, economic incentive programs and state economic development efforts. The Pro-Business States ranking is a joint venture between Pollina and the American Economic Development Institute. Here’s Pollina’s top 10 Pro-Business States: 1. Utah 2. Wyoming 3. Nebraska 4. Virginia 5. Kansas 6. North…
  • Mexico Revs Up Competition for Southeast Auto Industry

    Bill McMeekin
    11 Jul 2014 | 3:30 am
    The heart of the Southeast auto industry beats strongly in Tennessee, where massive assembly plants for General Motors, Nissan and Volkswagen and a growing roster of Tier I and Tier II suppliers have generated hundreds of millions of dollars in investment and created thousands of jobs. Business Facilities magazine named Tennessee the top state in its Automotive Manufacturing Strength ranking for 2013,  the fourth consecutive year for the recognition. Several other states are also contributing to the success of the Southeast auto industry. South Carolina, where German automaker BMW…
  • Why FDI Firms Are Making the U.S. More Globally Competitive

    Emily McMackin
    8 Jul 2014 | 6:30 am
    Foreign-owned companies are increasingly pumping jobs and capital into the U.S., employing a total of 5.6 million workers and accounting for 15 percent of annual investment, but that is not all they are bringing to the nation’s economy, according to a new study on FDI investment from the Brookings Institution. More importantly, these companies are making the U.S. more globally competitive, the study emphasizes, boosting wages, productivity, technology, trade and innovation for cities and regions lucky enough to attract them. FDI firms are already transforming the dynamics of the U.S.
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    Penury Street

  • World in Conflict

    Dennis Dotem
    13 Jul 2014 | 4:37 am
     The world is changing.Ukraine is facing an escalating civil war, Iraq is in a civil war, Libya is disintegrating, Thailand is under military rule, Egypt is under military rule, CAR is in a religious war, Venezuela faces a revolution, US is spying on everyone and doesn’t give a damn, Russia is becoming ultra-nationalist, China faces a an enormous property bubble, in a few years time bees, corals and hundreds of species of flora and fauna are going to be extinct as a result of global warming, drug-resistant bacteria are becoming a catastrophe and technology is going to replace…
  • Russia’s Appetite: What’s Next for Eastern Europe?

    Dennis Dotem
    26 Mar 2014 | 1:56 am
    With the recent acquisition of Crimea, Russia has set a precedent that hasn’t been set since the early days of the Cold War: What are you going to do about it? What are the consequences of such action and what the future might hold for international diplomacy and relation, let’s find out.Let’s get history and context out of the way: Both the Crimea and Ukraine were a part of the Soviet Union, and before that, a part of the Russian Empire, and before that a part of the Kievan Rus’ and other bigger, more advanced countries bordering it. Actual independence was achieved…
  • Our Economic System Has Stopped Working

    Dennis Dotem
    27 Jan 2014 | 7:28 am
    What is the purpose of humanity? Some might say the purpose is divine, some argue its ideological. But no one really knows, do they? And if they think they do, they acknowledge their own ignorance. Without much speculation, the human condition has left a few imprints on the never ending history, and by these imprints I and anyone willing, can judge what a true purpose, or rather, a narrative drives the average human.Throughout the years, thousands of years, humans have done nothing but advance in technology and societal order. The primitive hunter gathers became farmers or maybe patricians,…
  • Inflation is Inevitable

    Dennis Dotem
    1 Dec 2013 | 5:48 am
    When the US increases its debt it is to pay government expenses that is not covered by tax collection. Right now more debt is issued than the regular debt market can absorb. The debt that cannot be sold to the free market is basically monetized by the Federal Reserve. The FED create new dollars that they use to purchase the unsold/unsellable debt. At present time the FED is creating around 80-90 Billion USD every month in this manner, about 30% of the monthly government budget. Obviously all of this new money will go to pay wages and for goods and services the government needs. It is quite…
  • Rise of NSA Surveillance: Guilty Until Proven Innocent

    Dennis Dotem
    7 Nov 2013 | 4:40 am
    It has become common knowledge to anyone residing in Europe, UK or US that their private communications, whether internet or cellular are being stored and most likely read through by a ginormous conglomerate of surveillance agencies. Most likely as meta-data: snippets of useful information organized by date, time and location. For example, on such a list, your phone call to your husband or wife would be registered as:11.04.2013 3:14 PM – 006 88356453 90 to 006 8867772 90 — 97 seconds — San Diego, CANo nude pictures or family history of heart disease as you can see? So how…
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    Latest blog entries

  • Bitcoin Fading Away

    25 Jul 2014 | 3:32 pm
    Ask yourself, how is TacoCoin better than AppleByte? The market says one AppleByte is nearly ten times as valuable as a TacoCoin. Why? What makes it better? How are they different? An AppleCoin is one hundred times as valuable as an AppleByte, on the other hand. How about NewYorkCoin, which has increased in value 2500% in the past 24 hours, or FlappyCoin, down 93%? Then there is ByteCoin (BCN) and, yes, ByteCoin (BTE). One is the #16 cryptocurrency by market cap. The other's value isn't calculable since no one knows how many there are. How can you know the difference? With 103 currencies with…
  • 3 Terms Liberty Lovers Need to Stop Using

    14 Apr 2014 | 5:49 am
     George Orwell had a fine concept of political speech and it's purpose. He's no less right today than he was 60 years ago when he said it, and today's phrases carefully crafted for maximum political effect are no different. Here are three such phrases used to advance the interests of the state at the expense of the people.   1. National Security National security can occasionally refer to classified military information that could actually threaten the citizenry of the United States. For instance, the codes that activate the US nuclear arsenal should be kept secret for national…
  • America's New Currency: Clownbux

    6 Apr 2014 | 4:22 pm
    The US Dollar, as defined in the Coinage Act of 1792, is defined as about three-fourths of an ounce of silver. These things that we are paid with today, and use to pay bills are not dollars per se, but rather a piece of scrip printed by the official sounding "Federal Reserve", which is actually a bunch of commercial banks that bribed Congress to let them counterfeit money and loan it to themselves. No, really. Look it up. It isn't good business to change the name of a gourmet ice-cream when you sell out to Unilever, so likewise the banks  printing the new money didn't use a different…
  • 3 Secrets of Engineering Being Used to Keep You Poor

    1 Apr 2014 | 5:00 pm
    Tired of replacing crappy new stuff constantly? Does it seem like they just can't build anything right anymore? It turns out that it isn't ignorance or incompetence making your stuff break, but a deliberate effort by intelligent people who know exactly what they're doing. It really doesn't have to be this way, and manufacturers can make equipment that lasts ten or a hundred times as long without breaking a sweat. Here are three well-known secrets that manufacturers would prefer you didn't know.   1. Most Stuff Can Actually Last Forever Your ladle broke. It's time to get a new one. The…
  • How The Cryptocurrencies Will End

    23 Mar 2014 | 7:51 am
    Bitcoin was started in 2009 as open-source software for the secure, anonymous trading of purely digital "currency" called Bitcoins. By late 2013, the price of a Bitcoin in US dollars had gone from basically zero to around 1200 dollars. Many assumed that Bitcoin would become the world currency and replace all existing currencies, given the rate of growth. Unfortunately for the hopefuls, Bitcoins have somewhat stabilized at around $600. However, since the software was open-source, everyone and his brother copied, pasted, changed and renamed their own "cryptocurrencies" that were functionally…
 
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    zazora

  • What is it like to be a start-up founder?

    reevu123
    13 Jul 2014 | 2:04 pm
    Answer by Jason M. Lemkin: Let me add a few specific thoughts, about how you'll feel, and what you'll take with you:  You may only be in the office 30, 40, 50 hours a week, whatever.  But every moment of every day, of every evening, of every shower, of every run, of every moment stolen with your kids and family — you will be thinking about your start-up.  For years and years and years and years. You won't be able to really appreciate your successes because you will be so obsessed with the next hill and doing what it takes to get to the next level. You will…
  • What are the most important points in a co-founder agreement for a startup?

    reevu123
    13 Jul 2014 | 2:03 pm
    Answer by Jason M. Lemkin: Vesting. The most important thing is vesting. You’ll be tempted to give yourself lots of credit, lots of upfront vesting, no cliff, to protect against the future.  Against the VCs.  Against the acquirers.  Against the unknown that will try to Steal Your Stock later.  Against the whatever. But it will turn out, lots of times, co-founders don’t work out.  (Far more often that your stock is “stolen”).  Your commitments, for whatever or no reason, don’t end up being equal.  At least not 1, 2, 3, 4 years down the road.  And as a…
  • What are the greatest achievements of India and the Indian government in the past two decades?

    reevu123
    13 Jul 2014 | 2:02 pm
    Answer by Balaji Viswanathan: Ending Polio among 1.3 billion people – Ending polio in India is world's greatest health achievement, says Bill Gates Mission to Mars – India’s mission to Mars has smaller budget than hit film Gravity, says PM Mission to Moon that gave further evidence of water in the Moon – Chandrayaan helps NASA detect water on Moon   Right to Information – An achievement that has turned thorn govtin  flesh – The Times of India Golden quadrilateral and other new highways – Over 40,000 km of highways/expressways added in the…
  • Why did Brazil lose to Germany in the 2014 World Cup semifinal?

    reevu123
    13 Jul 2014 | 1:53 pm
    Answer by Christopher VanLang: This game was definitely one of the more traumatic breakdowns in football history. Going into the game, I anticipated Germany being the stronger side and Brazil struggling with the lack of Thiago Silva and Neymar but nothing like this. There are all sorts of psychological and emotional reason why this game was lost (or won depending on your perspective). But from a tactical standpoint, this was like a video game where Germany knew the secret winning combination and continued to use it and Brazil never figured out how to stop the bleeding. As Landon Donovan would…
  • Reviews of: Freakonomics (2005 book)

    reevu123
    13 Jul 2014 | 1:47 pm
    Answer by Reevu Adhikary: ★★★★☆ Freakonomics is a joyously entertaining book . It's an intellectual romp. But there are problems. Let's leave those for a moment and concentrate on the good parts. We're told early on that economist Steven Levitt is very good at asking questions. Indeed, he is. He’s also good at using the tools that he’s mastered as an economist to answer some of those questions in novel and interesting ways. That’s why this book is a charmer. Consider some of the questions as used in the chapter titles: 1.INTRODUCTION: The…
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    FT Alphaville

  • How not to introduce official e-money?

    Izabella Kaminska
    25 Jul 2014 | 10:42 am
    We’ve argued enthusiastically for the introduction of state e-money before. But we overlooked the likelihood that it might first be adopted by countries like Ecuador as a means of getting out of their dollar bind (via Bloomberg): Ecuador’s congress approved a new law today that allows the government to create its own parallel currency for use in local transactions as the government struggles to meet spending commitments. Congress voted 91-22 to approve President Rafael Correa’s proposal to change the South American nation’s monetary and financial laws, allowing payments in…
  • RBS — the bank that outperformed

    Paul Murphy
    25 Jul 2014 | 4:15 am
    From Lex Live at noon on Friday… Continue reading: RBS — the bank that outperformed
  • Dealmaking from an Indian jail apparently not so easy

    David Keohane
    25 Jul 2014 | 4:05 am
    Sahara’s incarcerated “managing worker” Subrata Roy — who is in a scrap with regulators over $4bn worth of convertible bonds sold, oft to impoverished farmers, in 2008 — is after a dealroom at Delhi’s Tihar jail. Can you blame him? If you were sitting in jail waiting for a (roughly) $1.6bn bail to be posted while being given some 6hrs leave a day to negotiate the sale of of three trophy hotels, including the Grosvenor in London, the proceeds of which would go towards meeting that bail… wouldn’t you try to hunt down a little extra calm and…
  • Geopolitical central banking

    Joseph Cotterill
    25 Jul 2014 | 3:09 am
    What happens when you raise rates by 2.5 percentage points, within a period of six months, for an economy that might only grow 0.2 per cent this year? We’re not sure.Continue reading: Geopolitical central banking
  • The British economic recovery in 13 charts

    Chris Giles
    25 Jul 2014 | 3:03 am
    So the UK economy grew 0.8 per cent in the second quarter of 2014, leaving output on this preliminary estimate at just about the previous peak set in Q1 2008, over six years ago. For an economy that produces almost £400bn a quarter in gross domestic product, exceeding the previous peak by £752m is really small beer, as our first chart below the break shows. This has been the slowest recovery from recession since the 1920s, although be warned, the ONS has form on revising up its estimates. Joe Grice, its chief economist is already hinting at such a move, commenting today that the ONS…
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    Marginal REVOLUTION

  • Insurance markets in everything

    Tyler Cowen
    25 Jul 2014 | 10:31 pm
    But there is one type of insurance that people buy to protect them from the consequences of unusually good luck: In Japan, the U.K., and, to a lesser extent, around the world, golfers buy insurance to protect themselves from the potentially bankrupting consequences of sinking a hole in one. The concept of hole in one insurance may baffle the uninitiated, but to many it is a wise precaution as golf tradition holds that anyone who scores a hole in one should buy drinks back at the clubhouse for his playing group — if not everyone present. In Japan, many give extravagant gifts to friends…
  • Sheila Bair is worried about reverse repo

    Tyler Cowen
    25 Jul 2014 | 10:06 am
    Like much of her commentary, I find this considerably overstated.  Still, it suggests a few points of interest and also concern: The mere existence of this facility could exacerbate liquidity runs during times of market stress. Borrowers in the short-term debt markets will have to compete with it for investment dollars and all, to varying degrees, will be viewed as higher risk than lending to the Fed. Even a relatively minor market event could encourage a massive flow of funds to the Fed while contributing to a flow away from other short-term borrowers. Nonfinancial companies could find…
  • Assorted links

    Tyler Cowen
    25 Jul 2014 | 8:44 am
    1. The London pheromone party. 2. Get paid (a little) for Facebook posts. 3. “Both studies revealed similar patterns of relations between trolling and the Dark Tetrad of personality: trolling correlated positively with sadism, psychopathy, and Machiavellianism, using both enjoyment ratings and identity scores. Of all personality measures, sadism showed the most robust associations with trolling and, importantly, the relationship was specific to trolling behavior.”  Link here. 4. Do you value more what you choose yourself? 5. Claims about the pricing of cocktails.  And do you…
  • The Idea of Congressional Intent is Incoherent

    Alex Tabarrok
    25 Jul 2014 | 4:23 am
    Now seems like an apposite time to remember, Congress intends no more than Congress smiles. As Ken Shepsle put it in his classic paper Congress is a “They,” not an “It”: Legislative intent is an internally inconsistent, self-contradictory expression. Therefore, it has no meaning. To claim otherwise is to entertain a myth (the existence of a Rousseauian great law giver) or commit a fallacy (the false personification of a collectivity). In either instance, it provides a very insecure foundation for statutory interpretation. Shepsle’s point is…
  • The Paul Ryan anti-poverty plan

    Tyler Cowen
    25 Jul 2014 | 12:51 am
    The Ryan plan is here (pdf), an NYT summary is here. Overall it’s pretty good.  It attacks excess incarceration and occupational licensing and regressive regulations, three issues where a serious dialogue is badly needed.  It makes a good attempt to limit the incentives for lower-income people not to work.  It’s better than what the Left is turning out for the first time in…how long? I’m not crazy about the complicated plan to monitor the lives of the poor in more detail (“…work with families to design a customized life plan to provide a structured…
 
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    Zero Hedge

  • If Americans Knew What Was Happening In Israel …

    George Washington
    25 Jul 2014 | 9:33 pm
    If my fellow Americans understood the history of Israel and Palestine, their views would change overnight … and they would demand that Israel no longer be given unconditional support and blank checks to do whatever they want: America is the Only Country with a Favorable View of Israel Israel Losing Support from Its Biggest Ally: American Evangelical Christians All 6 Former Israeli Security Chiefs Slam Occupation of Palestine Israeli Soldiers’ Testimonies from the Occupied Territories 2000-2010 Amnesty International: Israel Remains the Occupying Power in Gaza and is Thus Bound By…
  • ObamaFraud: GAO Study Finds Almost All Fake Applicants Are Approved For Subsidized ObamaCare

    Tyler Durden
    25 Jul 2014 | 7:39 pm
    Submitted by Michael Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg ObamaFraud: GAO Study Finds Almost All Fake Applicants are Approved for Subsidized ObamaCare Although it hasn’t been a focus for a while, the incompetent disaster that has been the ObamaCare rollout has been well documented on this site. Here are just a few posts on the subject: The Obama Administration is Forcing Insurance Companies to Keep Quiet About ObamaCare Problems Woman Touted as Obamacare Success Story is Now Kicked Off Obamacare Humana Warns of “‘Adverse ObamaCare Enrollment Mix” Computer Security Expert Claims he…
  • Economic Laws Are Not Optional

    Tyler Durden
    25 Jul 2014 | 6:08 pm
    Submitted by Monty Pelerin of Economic Noise blog, Economic laws are not optional. They are like the laws of physics - inexorable!   Economic laws are less precise in terms of their timing and effects, only because they deal with human behavior rather than physical particles. Human beings alter their behavior to cope with changing conditions. Particles do not. Free will and the survival instinct make prediction, especially regarding timing, very different and difficult in the human realm. Nevertheless, the laws are immutable! Long-time readers of this website know that no…
  • SouTH OF THe BoRDeR...

    williambanzai7
    25 Jul 2014 | 5:37 pm
  • But Wait, There Are A Few Differences Between Amazon and the US Postal Service

    testosteronepit
    25 Jul 2014 | 5:02 pm
    Wolf Richter   www.wolfstreet.com   www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter When Amazon reported second quarter earnings, or rather losses, it surprised no one, though some people were surprised that it lost that much ($126 million). To make us feel better about those losses, and to be able to beat analysts’ expectations later, it preannounced losses between $410 and $810 million for the current quarter. Analysts fell all over each other dodging the question how a company with over $19 billion in revenues could lose that much, and so consistently. Amazon has been…
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    nextnewdeal.net

  • Mike Mathieu: Big Data is Watching You

    tprice
    25 Jul 2014 | 4:56 am
    The Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Their assignment: be bold, and leave the conventional wisdom -- and their own opinions -- behind. In today's video, tech entrepreneur Mike Mathieu imagines what happens when data-mining is done directly to the human brain. Mike Mathieu, entrepreneur and founder of high-tech business incubator Front Seat, speculates on the future of technology, imagining a 100-million-fold increase in computer power that leads to a…
  • White House Summit Speakers: Look Beyond Congress for Action on Working Families

    rgoldfarb
    24 Jul 2014 | 1:10 pm
    The White House Summit on Working Families showed paths to creating change that work around a gridlocked Congress. On Monday, June 23, Roosevelt Institute Fellows and Campus Network members attended the White House Summit on Working Families in Washington, DC. The Summit, which was the culmination of months of town halls across the United States, presented the audience with the stark reality that in order to truly help working families, there must be a dramatic culture shift. The day was filled with speakers like the President, the Vice President, and both their wives, and the CEOs of…
  • Andy Stern: The Future Economy Will Pit Man vs. Machine

    tprice
    24 Jul 2014 | 3:51 am
    The Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Their assignment: be bold, and leave the conventional wisdom -- and their own opinions -- behind. In today's video, SEIU's Andy Stern offers a darker take on a future in which continued technological innovation has had a devastating impact on the job market. Andy Stern, president emeritus of SEIU, speculates that by 2040 technological advancement will have unleashed a tsunami of job loss. "The intellectuals who long…
  • Carl Camden: Full-Time Employment May Give Way to a Free Agent Economy

    tprice
    23 Jul 2014 | 6:00 am
    The Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Their assignment: be bold, and leave the conventional wisdom -- and their own opinions -- behind. In today's video, Kelly Services CEO Carl Camden speculates about a future workforce dominated by temporary employees. The CEO of employment firm Kelly Services speculates that in 20 years, less than a third of the American workforce will be directly employed by corporations or governments. Rather, the majority of the…
  • Althea Erickson: What if the Etsy Economy Prevails?

    tprice
    22 Jul 2014 | 6:05 am
    The Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Their assignment: be bold, and leave the conventional wisdom -- and their own opinions -- behind. Their goal: not to provide a researched analysis, but to stimulate debate on critical questions. In today's video, Etsy Public Policy Director Althea Erickson imagines a future economy based on digital entrepreneurship. Althea Erickson, Public Policy Director for Etsy, describes a possible future in which the "Etsy…
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    Jared Bernstein | On the Economy

  • A Quick Check-in on the Wage Front

    Jared Bernstein
    25 Jul 2014 | 2:22 pm
    We don’t yet have all the data I need to update my full-monty-wage-mash-up, but a few series to which I pay attention are now available for the first half of the year: median weekly earnings (MWE) of full-time workers and two flavors of average hourly earnings.  What do they show? Not much, in terms of wage pressures.  MWE is a very noisy series–medians are a more volatile statistic then means–so in order to show underlying pace in nominal weekly earnings, I’ve smoothed the series (using an HP filter; both figures show year-over-year changes).  Amidst the jumpiness,…
  • Revenue Neutrality Creates Winners and Losers: Paul Ryan Poverty-Plan Version

    Jared Bernstein
    24 Jul 2014 | 7:37 pm
    My CBPP colleague Donna Pavetti makes an interesting point re Rep. Paul Ryan’s new poverty plan.  Ryan tells the story of a single mom, Andrea, who needs a multitude of different services and supports that would, he claims, be more readily provided by his consolidated, block-granted system than by the current safety net (see my critiques of his plan here and here) . But Donna argues that: …nothing in Chairman Ryan’s proposal would make it more likely that families in Andrea’s situation would receive that full package of supports unless other needy individuals and families…
  • Rep. Paul Ryan’s Poverty Plan: Wrong Target, Wrong Solution

    Jared Bernstein
    24 Jul 2014 | 9:12 am
    Over at PostEverything. BTW, a friend who visits here regularly was mildly complaining about jumping around from site to site to read my posts.  I sympathize, but we’re just talking a mouse click.  And while OTE’ers bring very high quality eyeballs to this site, changing the world requires eyeball quantity as well as quality.
  • What Does the Minimum Wage Do? An Interview with author/economist Paul Wolfson

    Jared Bernstein
    24 Jul 2014 | 4:39 am
    To celebrate the fifth anniversary of the last increase in the federal minimum wage and to call attention to the fact that the federal wage floor has not risen in five years, the US Department of Labor has declared July 24th to be a “Day of Action.” Coincidentally, a new book surveying the scholarly literature on the effects of the minimum wage, What Does the Minimum Wage Do? came out earlier this month, written by Dale Belman and Paul Wolfson.  Below, I interview Mr. Wolfson (who’s an old friend, btw). Jared Bernstein: What does your work suggest about the Fair Minimum Wage Act…
  • Mid-week Music (because we need it…)

    Jared Bernstein
    23 Jul 2014 | 2:28 pm
    Q: What can one do when the actions of humans just seem to be screwing everything up so damn badly? A: Listen to Ray Charles sing about it.  
 
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    Freakonomics

  • A Podcast User’s Guide for People Who Don’t Use iTunes or iPhones

    Freakonomics
    24 Jul 2014 | 11:02 am
    We routinely hear from people who’ve heard about our Freakonomics Radio podcast, but feel somewhat shut out from the podcasting world because they don’t use an iPhone or iTunes. So here are some alternative options: 1) For Android Users We’ve heard great things about Pocket Casts, which, for $3.99, syncs your favorite podcasts and keeps them backed up. You can also stream it to your Chromecast. Pocket Casts also works for Apple devices. 2) Windows Users You actually don’t need a third-party app to stream, download, or subscribe to podcasts. It’s super simple: here are…
  • Does Religion Make You Happy? A New Freakonomics Radio Podcast

    Gretta Cohn
    24 Jul 2014 | 8:40 am
    (Photo: www.CGPGrey.com) This week’s episode is called “Does Religion Make You Happy?” (You can subscribe to the podcast at iTunes, get the RSS feed, or listen via the media player above. You can also read the transcript, which includes credits for the music you’ll hear in the episode.) We undertook this episode in response to a listener question from Joel Rogers, a tax accountant in Birmingham, Ala. Here’s what he wrote: Being devout Southern Baptists my parents have steadfastly been giving 10% of their income to the church their whole lives. I recently voiced my opinion that I…
  • Does Religion Make You Happy? Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    24 Jul 2014 | 6:43 am
    [AMBI: Birds chirping] JOEL: Jesus can’t keep the heat out in there! WAYNE: Woo man, nice and warm! JOEL: I’m dumping sweat… WAYNE: I’ll tell you what! Stephen J. DUBNER: That’s Joel Rogers and his father Wayne. JOEL: Yeah! So we’re just about to walk into Grace Life Baptist Churchand worship with my parents, and my brother, also, my sister is about to be here, running a little late as usual. [AMBI: Roosters crow, gravel crunch] [MUSIC: Cantinero, “Happy When I’m Down” (from Championship Boxing DUBNER: We’re in McCalla, Alabama, about 20 minutes outside of Birmingham, on a…
  • Why You Should Bribe Your Kids: A New Freakonomics Radio Podcast

    Suzie Lechtenberg
    17 Jul 2014 | 4:52 am
    (Photo: Nana B Agyei) This week’s episode is called “Why You Should Bribe Your Kids.” (You can subscribe to the podcast at iTunes, get the RSS feed, or listen via the media player above. You can also read the transcript, which includes credits for the music you’ll hear in the episode.) Let’s say you’re trying to get a bunch of kids to eat more nutritious food. What’s the best way to do this — education, moral urging, or plain old bribery? That’s one of the questions that a pair of economists set out to answer in a recent field experiment in Chicago.
  • Why You Should Bribe Your Kids: Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    17 Jul 2014 | 4:23 am
    [MUSIC: Pearl Django, “La Rive Gauche” (from Under Paris Skies Stephen J. DUBNER: Hello, John List? John LIST: Stephen Dubner, how are you doing, man? DUBNER: I’m great! How are you doing? LIST: Great! Great! DUBNER: John List is an economist at the University of Chicago. And he’s a family man – five kids. DUBNER: Now… do you… do you ever have to bribe any of your kids? I’m just curious, John. LIST: Every now and then I have to incentivize them. I don’t call it bribing. I call it incentivizing them. My kids refuse to eat seafood. So this comes directly from my wife who…
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    interfluidity

  • Welfare economics: housekeeping and links

    Steve Randy Waldman
    11 Jul 2014 | 11:55 am
    A correspondent asks that I give the welfare series a table of contents. So here’s that… Welfare economics: Introduction The perils of Potential Pareto Inequality, production, and technology Welfare theorems, distribution priority, and market clearing Normative is performative, not positive I think I should also note the “prequel” of the series, the post whose comments inspired the exercise: Should markets clear? Much more interesting than any of that, I’ll add a box below with links to related commentary that has come my way. And of course, there have been two…
  • Welfare economics: normative is performative, not positive (part 5 and conclusion of a series)

    Steve Randy Waldman
    7 Jul 2014 | 1:20 pm
    This is the fifth (and final) part of a series. See parts 1, 2, 3, and 4. For those who have read along thus, far, I am grateful. We’ve traveled a long road, but in the end we haven’t traveled very far. We have understood, first, the conceit of traditional welfare economics: that with just a sprinkle of one, widely popular bit of ethical philosophy — liberalism! — we could let positive economics (an empirical science, at least in aspiration) serve as the basis for normative views about how society should be arranged. But we ran into a problem.
  • Welfare economics: welfare theorems, distribution priority, and market clearing (part 4 of a series)

    Steve Randy Waldman
    22 Jun 2014 | 2:56 pm
    This is the fourth part of a series. See parts 1, 2, 3, and 5. Comments are open on this post. What good are markets anyway? Why should we rely upon them to make economic decisions about what gets produced and who gets what, rather than, say, voting or having an expert committee study the matter and decide? Is there a value-neutral, “scientific” (really “scientifico-liberal“) case for using markets rather than other mechanisms? Informally, we can have lots of arguments. One can argue that most successful economies rely upon market allocation, albeit to greater and…
  • Welfare economics: inequality, production, and technology (part 3 of a series)

    Steve Randy Waldman
    11 Jun 2014 | 10:19 pm
    This is the third part of a series. See parts 1, 2, 4, and 5. Last time, we concluded that output cannot be measured independently of distribution, “the size of the proverbial pie in fact depends upon how you slice it.” That’s a clear enough idea, but the example that we used to get there may have seemed forced. We invented people with divergent circumstances and preferences, and had a policy decision rather than “the free market” slice up the pie. Now we’ll consider a more natural case, although still unnaturally oversimplified. Imagine an economy in which…
  • Welfare economics: the perils of Potential Pareto (part 2 of a series)

    Steve Randy Waldman
    5 Jun 2014 | 7:32 am
    This is the second part of a series. See parts 1, 3, 4, and 5. When economics tried to put itself on a scientific basis by recasting utility in strictly ordinal terms, it threatened to perfect itself to uselessness. Summations of utility or surplus were rendered incoherent. The discipline’s new pretension to science did not lead to reconsideration of its (unscientific) conflation of voluntary choice with welfare improvement. So it remained possible for economists to recommend policies that would allow some people to be made better off (in the sense that they would choose their new…
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    Why Nations Fail

  • The Will to Make Legible

    Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson
    25 Jul 2014 | 11:44 am
    The University of the Andes in Bogotá where James Robinson teaches every summer wants to expand at the moment. In particular just to the north of the campus in downtown Bogotá, about 10 minutes walk for the Casa de Nariño, the presidential palace, is a neighborhood called Triángulo de Fenicia. The deal that the university proposed is that they would buy up all the properties and then re-house the people living there in new apartment buildings they would construct as part of the campus extension (you can read about the project here.) Looks like a great deal; nearly…
  • Hard Times for Geographical Determinism

    Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson
    22 Jul 2014 | 8:47 pm
    When we began our research with Simon Johnson in 1998 that provided a lot of the insights around which we built Why Nations Fail, we were partly reacting against the ascendancy of what we saw as a highly misleading explanation form, comparative economic development based on geography — both in academia and in policy discussions. In Chapter 2 of our book “Theories that Don’t Work” we explain in detail some of the evidence that is inconsistent with such geographical views. Thankfully, one rarely hears nowadays at an economics conference that Africa is poor because it is…
  • An Application of the Art of Not Being Governed

    Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson
    17 Jul 2014 | 12:16 pm
    Scott’s theory can actually help to understand some facts about economic development. In their paper Geography and Economic Development, John Gallup, Jeffrey Sachs, and Andrew Mellinger elaborate several versions of what we called the geography hypothesis in Why Nations Fail. They point out that there is a correlation between the distribution of population in a country and poverty, with countries in Asia and Africa often having populations far from the coast and navigable rivers — a fact which they interpret as a geographical source of underdevelopment. But they do not explain why…
  • The Art of Not Being Governed

    Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson
    15 Jul 2014 | 11:25 am
    Scott followed up Seeing Like a State with another important book on the state, The Art of Not Being Governed. The thesis of this book is simple but provocative. Focusing on South East Asia, Scott points out that historically (roughly up until the middle of the 20th century) many countries like Burma, Thailand and Vietnam were divided into core areas controlled by the state, and peripheries that are largely outside the state’s control. These peripheries are typically more ethnically diverse, culturally distinct, poorer and often in conflict with the state in the core. On way of viewing…
  • Seeing Like a State

    Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson
    10 Jul 2014 | 1:06 pm
    Scott’s book Seeing Like a State proposes a theory of the state and its consequences for society, picking it up where The Moral Economy of the Peasant left off. The state expansion, by threatening the moral economy of peasants, could trigger rebellion and a fight against the expansion of the state. In Seeing Like a State, Scott makes several main arguments. Perhaps the most general is that states by their nature want to make everything “legible” — in order to control society. To establish such control, states have to have an understanding of it and information about…
 
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    Credit Writedowns

  • QE is fiscal policy

    Frances Coppola
    24 Jul 2014 | 12:36 pm
    By Frances Coppola A new paper by Johnston and Pugh of the legal department of the University of Sheffield discusses the legality and the effectiveness of QE and its relatives, including the ECB’s OMT “whatever it takes” promise. The background to this is the German Constitutional Court’s ruling that OMT amounts to monetary financing of government deficits and is therefore unlawful. Although the European Court of Justice is still to give its judgment in this matter – and is widely expected to dissent – the ECB is evidently doing its best to avoid outright…
  • Apple’s shift into China shows the company’s masterful execution

    Edward Harrison
    23 Jul 2014 | 6:06 am
    Apple’s Q3 2014 earnings report yesterday was a mixed bag in terms of actual results. But from my perspective the results show a company that continues to execute its strategy well given the onslaught from cheaper handsets using the Android operating system. Apple posted a smaller-than-expected 6% gain in quarterly revenue due to sluggish growth in saturated markets in Europe and North America. But revenue in China surged 28% despite Apple’s premium pricing. Apple’s growth days are over in developed markets. But I have been upbeat about Apple’s results because of the China strategy…
  • Links: 2014-07-23

    Edward Harrison
    23 Jul 2014 | 4:42 am
    Split Obamacare Court Rulings Revive Health-Care Debate – Bloomberg EUobserver / Leaked paper: EU options on ‘stage three’ Russia sanctions Europe Toughens Sanctions on Russia – WSJ Condo Builders Fuel Land Rush in Miami – WSJ Draghi Faces German Hard Line on Avoiding Deflation – Bloomberg UK arms export licences for Russia still in place despite claims of embargo – report | World news | theguardian.com Deutsche Bank Suffers From Litany of Reporting Problems, Regulators Said – WSJ Meat Supplier in China to Yum, McDonald’s…
  • Links: 2014-07-22

    Edward Harrison
    22 Jul 2014 | 6:14 am
    The unravelling of the global financial system — Crooked Timber Putin says other countries must not meddle in Russia’s internal affairs | ForexLive Flurry – AVC Russia challenges accusations that Ukraine rebels shot down airliner | Reuters What’s So Beautiful About Deleveraging? – Bloomberg View The Benefits of Failing at French – NYTimes.com Chinese Hackers Pursue Key Data on U.S. Workers – NYTimes.com BRICS’ new financial institutions could undermine US-EU global dominance | Al Jazeera America Yahoo Makes One of Its Biggest Acquisitions Under Marissa…
  • Bad debt cannot simply be ‘socialized’

    Michael Pettis
    16 Jul 2014 | 5:21 am
    By Michael Pettis Once again I am going to discuss debt, and my discussion will be mainly conceptual. I suspect that many of my regular readers might wonder why I keep returning to this subject – and, often enough, keep saying the same things. The reason is because while debt plays a key role in understanding the recent evolution of the Chinese economy and the timing and process of its upcoming adjustment (as it also does for all if not most major economies), there seems to be a remarkable amount of confusion as to why debt matters. In much classical economics debt, or more generally the…
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    Liberty Street Economics

  • Becoming More Alike? Comparing Bank and Federal Reserve Stress Test Results

    Blog Author
    21 Jul 2014 | 4:00 am
    Beverly Hirtle, Anna Kovner, and Eric McKay Stress tests have become an important method of assessing whether financial institutions have enough capital to operate in bad economic conditions. Under the provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act, both the Federal Reserve and large U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs) are required to do annual stress tests and to disclose these results to the public. While the BHCs’ and the Federal Reserve’s projections are made under the same macroeconomic scenario, the results differ, primarily because of differences in the models used to make the…
  • Historical Echoes: The Worst Bank Robbers in Mendham, New Jersey

    Blog Author
    18 Jul 2014 | 4:00 am
    Megan Cohen There are many methods by which financial institutions can ready themselves for worst-case scenarios: they participate in the federal deposit insurance system, they follow a variety of banking regulations, and they prepare for natural disasters, for starters. But what about bank robberies, which typically strike their targets with little or no warning?      Not every bank is lucky enough to get advance notice of a plot in the works. Even fewer banks are located in a small town with local police intent on catching would-be thieves in the middle of the act and…
  • Risk Aversion and the Natural Interest Rate

    Blog Author
    16 Jul 2014 | 4:00 am
    Bianca De Paoli and Pawel Zabczyk One way to assess the stance of monetary policy is to assert that there is a natural interest rate (NIR), defined as the rate consistent with output being at its potential. Broadly speaking, monetary policy can be seen as expansionary if the policy rate is below the NIR with the gap between the rates measuring the extent of the policy stimulus. Of course, there are many challenges in defining and measuring the NIR, with various factors driving its value over time. A key factor that needs to be considered is the effect of uncertainty and risk aversion on…
  • Just Released: July Empire State Manufacturing Survey Shows Strength

    Blog Author
    15 Jul 2014 | 5:45 am
    Jason Bram and Richard Deitz The July 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey, released today, points to some notable strengthening in New York’s manufacturing sector. The survey’s headline general business conditions index and the new orders and shipments indexes all climbed to their highest levels in more than four years. The employment measure also moved up in July and is close to the three-year high set in April. Because the survey’s diffusion indexes measure the breadth of change for their respective indicators, greater values tend to indicate not just higher levels…
  • High Unemployment and Disinflation in the Euro Area Periphery Countries

    Blog Author
    14 Jul 2014 | 4:00 am
    Thomas Klitgaard and Richard Peck Economists often model inflation as dependent on inflation expectations and the level of economic slack, with changes in expectations or slack leading to changes in the inflation rate. The global slowdown and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis caused the greatest divergence in unemployment rates among euro area member countries since the monetary union was founded in 1999. The pronounced differences in economic performances of euro area countries since 2008 should have led to significant differences in price behavior. That turned out to be the case, with a…
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    The Incidental Economist

  • What does the Gruber video tell us about Halbig?

    Nicholas Bagley
    25 Jul 2014 | 12:30 pm
    When it comes to the exchange litigation, what should we make of the Jonathan Gruber video that just came to light? In 2012, Gruber, who was heavily involved in debates over the ACA, responded to a question from the audience after a speaking engagement: [T]hese health-insurance Exchanges … will be these new shopping places and they’ll be the place that people go to get their subsidies for health insurance. In the law, it says if the states don’t provide them, the federal backstop will. The federal government has been sort of slow in putting out its backstop, I think partly because they…
  • Stand Up! – July 25, 2014

    Nicholas Bagley
    25 Jul 2014 | 11:55 am
    I was a guest this morning on Stand Up! with Pete Dominick, which airs on Sirius/XM radio, channel 104 from 6-9AM Eastern. The show immediately replays on the channel, so those on the West Coast can listen at the same times. We talked about—you guessed it—Halbig and the exchange litigation. It was a hoot. It wouldn’t have happened without Aaron’s much-too-kind introduction, so I owe him thanks for that. You can play the audio right here, after the jump… 7/25/14
  • What did Congress mean by “established by the State”?

    Nicholas Bagley
    25 Jul 2014 | 7:20 am
    Over at the Volokh Conspiracy, Jonathan Adler, one of the architects of the exchange litigation, has posted a thoughtful response to a post I wrote defending the extension of tax credits to those purchasing health plans on federally established exchanges. You should read it; he’s really sharp. But he’s still wrong. Adler argues that I haven’t offered a satisfactory explanation for why Congress used the phrase “an Exchange established by the State” in the tax-credit calculation. He rejects my suggestion that the best way to understand the phrase is that it was a shorthand for…
  • Too few kids get the HPV vaccine. Did you all not watch my video?

    Aaron Carroll
    25 Jul 2014 | 6:45 am
    From the CDC: To assess progress with HPV vaccination coverage among adolescents aged 13–17 years,* characterize adherence with recommendations for HPV vaccination by the 13th birthday, and describe HPV vaccine adverse reports received postlicensure, CDC analyzed data from the 2007–2013 National Immunization Survey-Teen (NIS-Teen) and national postlicensure vaccine safety data among females and males. Vaccination coverage with ≥1 dose of any HPV vaccine increased significantly from 53.8% (2012) to 57.3% (2013) among adolescent girls and from 20.8% (2012) to 34.6% (2013) among adolescent…
  • My one comment on Gruber and Halbig

    Aaron Carroll
    25 Jul 2014 | 6:00 am
    I said it on Twitter, but I’ll expand here. Is there a single CBO analysis which documents what would happen if states refused to set up exchanges and would therefore “lose” their subsidies? Were any of Gruber’s models set up in this manner? If not, then I don’t understand how anyone in Congress or who set up the law thought it was going to work that way. I accept that the law was written poorly. I accept that there may be individuals who thought it would work in the way the DC Circuit majority said. But there are tons of analyses, reports, interviews, and more…
 
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    LewRockwell

  • Sales Tax-Free Weekend?

    No Author
    25 Jul 2014 | 10:01 pm
    Seventeen years ago, New York state began a tradition that has been adopted by many states: a sales-tax holiday weekend during the back-to-school rush. “It was developed as a way to give parents a break on the back-to-school shopping season,” says Anna Christakos of Offers.com, which gives consumers information on sales, coupon codes and discounts online and in stores. “There’s a lot of expenses you have to get during that time — textbooks, school supplies, clothing.” This year, 17 states are holding one, all of them occurring from the end of July to the first half of August.
  • Making the World Pay for US Banksterism

    Peter Schiff
    25 Jul 2014 | 10:01 pm
    Although Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said nothing new in her carefully manicured semi-annual testimony to Congress last week, her performance there, taken within the context of a lengthy profile in the New Yorker (that came to press at around the same time), should confirm that she is very different from any of her predecessors in the job. Put simply, she is likely the most dovish and politically leftist Fed Chair in the Central Bank’s history. While her tenure thus far may feel like a seamless extension of the Greenspan/Bernanke era, investors should understand how much further…
  • Tyrannosaurus Rex Just Got Scarier

    No Author
    25 Jul 2014 | 10:01 pm
    As if a lone Tyrannosaurus was not terrifying enough — average height of 40 feet with a four-foot-long jaw and bone-crushing teeth — new evidence suggests that these carnivorous dinosaurs, of the Cretaceous period, hunted in packs. The hunting patterns of Tyrannosaurs has been long debated by researchers, according to the Guardian. However, there has not been enough strong evidence to support this speculation, until now. A group of researchers from Canada published a study in the journal Plos One, detailing evidence that Tyrannosaurs may have in fact traveled in groups. The Guardian…
  • The Massacre

    Murray N. Rothbard
    25 Jul 2014 | 10:01 pm
    Originally published in The Libertarian Forum, October 1982. All other news, all other concerns, fade into insignificance beside the enormous horror of the massacre in Beirut. All humanity is outraged at the wanton slaughter of hundreds of men (mainly elderly), women, and children in the Palestinian refugee camps of Sabra and Shatila. The days of the massacre— September 16 to 18—shall truly live in infamy. There is one ray of hope in this bloodbath: the world-wide outrage demonstrates that mankind’s sensibilities have not, as some have feared, been blunted by the butcheries of the…
  • He Who Makes the Laws

    No Author
    25 Jul 2014 | 10:01 pm
    Working for the government was always pitched as somehow being better guaranteed than risky corporations. However, he who makes the laws never goes to jail for breaking them - a plain fact of life. The problem with government pensions has been they promised whatever sounded nice, with zero accountability. The presumption that tax revenue was an endless pit is one of those fallacies that nobody ever investigates. It was the city of Mainz where the Gutenberg printing press was invented. This created an economic boom and everyone wanted to be in Mainz. The politicians saw the boom and presumed…
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    Angry Bear

  • Labor Market Flows and Extended Unemployment Insurance II

    Robert Waldmann
    26 Jul 2014 | 12:56 am
    This is my FRED graph of the day post. Recently I was almost semi convinced by the Conservative argument that recent unusually rapid growth of employment fit what they said would happen if the extended unemployment insurance program ended. Then I glanced at the data on flows from unemployment to employment and noted that there was no anomaly January 2014 when the program suddenly ended. This is just a follow up which I meant to post days ago. Here I post seasonally adjusted flows from the Current Population Survey The figure shows almost no sign of effects of cutting off unemployment…
  • The Palpable Ugliness of the Predominant Culture of the American South

    Beverly Mann
    25 Jul 2014 | 1:11 pm
    You may have seen this photo before. It was taken last August at the scene of a dog fighting raid, and it has been used in ASPCA advertisements all around the Internet and on TV. It can be hard to look at—a small, vulnerable puppy tied to a heavy chain, alone and cowering in fear. With just the quick snap of a camera, this single moment captured so much about the fatal sport of dog fighting, and this puppy became the face of abused animals everywhere. That puppy’s name is Timmy, and he was one of 367 dogs rescued from a multi-state dog fighting ring that spanned Alabama, Mississippi,…
  • IMF suggests improving skills of youth & lower pay?… Keynes rolls over

    Edward Lambert
    25 Jul 2014 | 11:56 am
    Here is a video from the IMF… At the 4 minute point, the representative talks about youth unemployment in Europe and recommends two things… training to appropriate skills which would make someone more valuable. bringing down costs of employment. Oh, how wonderful!… Make your skills more valuable only to meet wage suppression. They just do not understand that people need to be paid more. Keynes wrote… “The insufficiency of effective demand will inhibit the process of production in spite of the fact that the marginal product of labour still exceeds in value the…
  • Fun and games with transfer pricing

    Kenneth Thomas
    25 Jul 2014 | 9:01 am
    ProGrowthLiberal in his comments on my last post and in his own post at EconoSpeak highlights the fact that drug-maker AbbVie already makes most of its profits outside the United States, about 87% in fact over 2011-2013 by his calculation. For PGL, then, AbbVie is not the best example of an inversion because the horse is already out of the barn in terms of escaped profits. I see things a little differently on this, but the case is also highly illustrative of a principle we have discussed before, transfer pricing. Let’s take a look at AbbVie’s Form 10-K Annual Report, downloadable…
  • More On Consumers’ Inflation Forecasts

    Robert Waldmann
    24 Jul 2014 | 5:59 am
    My http://angrybearblog.com/2014/07/anchored-perceived-inflation-or-how-fox-news-helped-obama.html has received more attention than I would have guessed. This should be a semi-serious post on the topic. The puzzling fact is the persistently too high forecasts of next years consumer price index inflation reported in the University of Michigan Thomson Reuters Survey of Consumer Sentiment. The median forecast has consistently been over 2.9% in the most recent three years available to non-paying customers so through December 2013. Actual CPI inflation for the periods being forecast has been quite…
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    Macro and Other Market Musings

  • A Surprising Look Back at the Fed's QE Programs

    24 Jul 2014 | 10:52 am
    The Fed's QE3 program is scheduled to end later this year. This will bring to a close the Fed's five year experiment with QE programs. They have been incredibly controversial, especially among those who believe these programs enabled the federal government to run large budget deficits. Those holding this view typically make one of two claims. First, the large scale asset purchases (LSAPs) done under QE meant the federal government had a guaranteed purchaser of its securities. Second, the QE programs kept the federal government's financing charges inordinately low. So are these claims correct?
  • Insure Against Central Bank Incompetence: My Reply to the New Keynesian Strikeforce

    23 Jul 2014 | 1:05 pm
    Apparently, it is open season on market monetarists. The red dots you see on our chest are from the laser scopes on the new keynesian guns of Tony Yates, Simon Wren-Lewis, and Paul Krugman. These individuals have been firing away with their critiques of market monetarism. Scott Sumner and Nick Rowe have already responded to many of them. Here I want to focus on what I view as one of their better criticisms: even if we are correct that monetary policy alone can end the slump, central banks have not shown themselves willing to do so. So why argue for them to do more? Here is Simon Wren-Lewis…
  • Follow up to My Washington Post Piece on Secular Stagnation

    15 Jul 2014 | 11:13 am
    I have an new article in the Washington Post where I make the case against secular stagnation. My argument is based on three observations. The details of these arguments and evidence for them are spelled out in the piece, but here is a quick summary.First, the prima-facie evidence most secular stagnation advocates point to is misleading. They see the long-decline of real interest rates since the early 1980s as supporting their view. Their real interest rate measures, however, do not account for a trend decline in the risk premium. Once that is done there is no downward trend in real interest…
  • The Data Problem with the Natural Interest Rate Debate and How to Fix It.

    14 Jul 2014 | 2:02 pm
    Many observers claim the Fed has been keeping interest rates artificially low over the past five years. They contend this low-interest rate policy is creating financial instability via an unnatural reach for yield and harming folks who depend on fixed income. They want to see the Fed raise interest rates now.Paul Krugman has recently taken it on himself to contest this view. His reply is that interest rates can only be artificially low if they are below the natural interest rate level, but he sees most evidence pointing to the opposite case. Interest rates appear to have been higher than the…
  • It's Time for the Fed to Move Beyond Inflation Targeting (and Officialy Do what Israel and Australia are Unofficially Doing)

    11 Jul 2014 | 7:05 am
    I have a new policy paper that argues inflation targeting has passed its expiration date. Here is the title and abstract:Inflation Targeting: A Monetary Policy Regime Whose Time Has Come and GoneInflation targeting emerged in the early 1990s and soon became the dominant monetary-policy regime. It provided a much-needed nominal anchor that had been missing since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. Its arrival coincided with a rise in macroeconomic stability for numerous countries, and this led many observers to conclude that it is the best way to do monetary policy. Some studies show,…
 
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    niesr.ac.uk

  • Welfare reform and the "jobs miracle"

    JonathanPortes
    22 Jul 2014 | 3:22 am
    The recent performance of the UK labour market since the financial crisis has astonished almost everyone. Employment did not fall nearly as much as might have been expected, given the size of the contraction, and the subsequent period of stagnation.  And when it started growing again it grew much faster than expected.  The overall employment rate is now back more or less at its previous peak (in early 2005) and may well rise even further.
  • Setting the record straight: factchecking the UK press

    JonathanPortes
    23 Jun 2014 | 1:16 am
    On the subjects I write about most – immigration, labour markets, welfare – the British press frequently gets things wrong, sometimes very wrong.  Since I think my position as Director of NIESR gives me both an opportunity and a responsibility to try to improve the quality of public debate on these issues, I do my best to redress the balance. Mostly that’s by blogging, twitter or media commentary. But sometimes, when it’s simply a question of fact, what is really required is not a counterargument, but a correction.
  • All in this together? The impact of tax and spending decisions by gender, disability, ethnicity and age

    JonathanPortes
    18 Jun 2014 | 6:06 am
    [Note: the views set out in this post are that of the author, not those of the Equality and Human Rights Commission]
  • Independence Bonus or UK Dividend?

    AngusArmstrong
    4 Jun 2014 | 7:18 am
    The publication of two official reports last week making apparently contradictory claims might appear to reflect badly on the 'dismal science' (economics). On the one hand, the Treasury report claims that Scots would be £1,400 better off each year by staying in the union. On the other hand, the Scottish Government claims that Scots would receive a £1,000 bonus per year if Scotland becomes independent. If the officials cannot decide, then is there any hope that the rest of us can make sense of their claims?
  • Immigration: recent trends and Thursday's figures

    JonathanPortes
    18 May 2014 | 8:35 am
    In advance of the latest batch of migration statistics on Thursday from the Office for National Statistics, I thought it was worth trying to summarise what the vast range of data on immigration tells about recent trends. This is not a particularly analytical piece: for excellent summaries about the economics of immigration to the UK, go to this from Jonathan Wadsworth (CEP) or this from CREAM (UCL).
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    Bruegel - Latest Updates

  • Is the BRICS rise over?

    26 Jul 2014 | 12:55 am
    On one level, this seems like a rather odd time to be asking such a question, especially when the BRICS political leaders have just agreed to set up a joint development bank to be headquartered in Shanghai. So the BRICS name is certainly here to stay, and in terms of global governance, their influence is likely to rise as a group because of this development.   Previously, the BRICS political leaders meetings had failed to agree anything specific and even once the creation of such a bank was first mooted, for the past two years, they appeared to have difficulties in agreeing where it…
  • Fact of the week: Lithuania changes the ECB’s voting system

    24 Jul 2014 | 10:32 pm
    Lithuania will become the 19th member of the Euro area on the 1st of January, following Wednesday’s Council endorsement. The most important part of the story - however - is not that someone is still brave enough to join the Euro area, but that Lithuania's accession will trigger a change in the voting system of the ECB. Lithuania’s accession to the euro area will be effective on the 1st of January 2015. This will bring the number of eurozone members to 19 and the Governing Council’s members to 25 (6 members of the executive board and 19 National Central Bank governors). Enough to trigger…
  • Asset-backed securities: The key to unlocking Europe's credit markets?

    24 Jul 2014 | 5:15 am
    The European market for asset-backed securities (ABS) has all but closed for business since the start of the economic and financial crisis. ABS (see Box 1) were in fact the first financial assets hit at the onset of the crisis in 2008. The subprime mortgage meltdown caused a deterioration in the quality of collateral in the ABS market in the United States, which in turn dried up overall liquidity because ABS AAA notes were popular collateral for inter-bank lending. The lack of demand for these products, together with the Great Recession in 2009, had a considerable negative impact on the…
  • China gingerly taking the capital account liberalisation path

    24 Jul 2014 | 2:25 am
    Since China is the number one trading nation, the second largest economy and a large net creditor, the world has a huge stake in how China manages its tricky transition from a state of binding capital controls to one of closer integration with the global financial market and system. A natural starting point is, of course, where China currently stands in its financial integration with the rest of the world. How open financially is China when we compare it to its own recent past or its major emerging market peers like India? To answer this question, Robert N. McCauley and…
  • The world is ready for a global economic governance reform, are world leaders?

    24 Jul 2014 | 1:02 am
    Bottom line: A survey of G20 practitioners reveals how, notwithstanding the post-crisis loss of momentum, the G20 is still considered a useful forum of discussions. While changes to its composition and workings would be accepted (to varying degree), major revisions in global economic governance are ruled out, bar in case of another major crisis. Our claim is that, at a time of major rebalancing in world economic weight, intransigence by the detainers of power in (what now looks like) an old global governance framework will imply a fade in relevance of the Bretton Woods institutions and…
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    TaxVox

  • There’s No Joy in Inversion-Ville

    Renu Zaretsky
    25 Jul 2014 | 5:00 am
    Corporate inversions: Not exactly a home-run campaign issue. But some Democrats are swinging for the fences anyway, including President Obama: “You shouldn’t get to call yourself an American company only when you want a handout from American taxpayers.” He reiterated a call for “economic patriotism” among corporations and a retroactive, speedy end to corporate inversions. Some key Senate Democrats doubt anything can pass before the August recess or even the mid-term elections in November—including the Democratic bill to “Bring Jobs Home.” Speaking of the “Bring Jobs Home”…
  • The Bring Jobs Home Act Won’t

    Howard Gleckman
    24 Jul 2014 | 4:11 pm
    The Bring Jobs Home Act is a classic message bill. Its Democratic sponsors have no interest in making it law, they merely see it as a way to boost the party’s Senate candidates in part by forcing Republicans to vote against something that sounds like a good idea. After all, who could be against bringing jobs home? Trouble is, this bill would do almost nothing to “bring jobs home.” It combines two ineffectual ideas into a single bill, and the whole is no more than the sum of its exceedingly modest parts. The measure aims to do two things: Reward U.S. firms with a 20 percent…
  • Reducing Income Inequality, Taxing Businesses to “Hire American”

    Renu Zaretsky
    24 Jul 2014 | 5:00 am
    Have Obama’s tax policies reduced income inequality? TPC has some new data, but the answer depends on who you compare him to. Relative to George W. Bush, who pushed major tax cuts for high-income households, Obama has reduced inequality. But compared to Bill Clinton, his policy is pretty standard Democratic fare. The Washington Post has one take. TPC’s Len Burman puts it in perspective. Senate Democrats want tax legislation to help “bring jobs home.” They’ve advanced a bill that would give companies a 20 percent tax credit on expenses related to bringing jobs into the United States…
  • How Progressive is Obama’s Tax Policy?

    Len Burman
    23 Jul 2014 | 1:49 pm
    Has President Obama’s tax policy reduced income inequality? It depends on what you are comparing it to. White House Council of Economic Advisors chief Jason Furman claims that President Obama’s tax policies have sharply reduced inequality. Today’s Washington Post Wonkblog featured some new tables from the Tax Policy Center that show Obama tax policy is significantly more progressive that President George W. Bush’s, not exactly a surprise. That’s true, of course, but we also compared Obama’s tax policies to those of his Democratic predecessor, Bill Clinton. In other words, suppose…
  • ACA Tax Subsidies Face Risk; IRS Enforcement Is Overtaxed

    Renu Zaretsky
    23 Jul 2014 | 5:00 am
    Two appeals courts deliver opposing rulings on Affordable Care Act tax subsidies. The DC Circuit Court ruled yesterday that the tax credits can only go to residents in states that run their own  health exchanges. In Richmond, VA, the 4th Circuit Court said the ACA language isn’t clear, so the tax credits are also available in the 36 states with federal exchanges. The case is likely to end up before the Supreme Court. Stakes are high: More than 90 percent of people in federal exchanges got insurance with tax credit support. The average credit was $276 this year, lowering  the average…
 
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    Off the Charts Blog | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

  • In Case You Missed It…

    CBPP
    25 Jul 2014 | 2:03 pm
    This week on Off the Charts, we focused on the safety net, federal taxes, Social Security, food assistance, and health policy. On the safety net, we excerpted Robert Greenstein’s commentary on House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s “Opportunity Grant” proposal and highlighted his discussion of the Ryan poverty plan on MSNBC’s “The Last Word with Lawrence O’Donnell.”  Stacy Dean excerpted a post by Olivia Golden of the Center for Law and Social Policy debunking myths about safety net programs.  Arloc Sherman explained that there are fewer poor children in America but…
  • Ryan Roundup: What You Need to Know About Chairman Ryan’s Poverty Proposal

    CBPP
    25 Jul 2014 | 1:42 pm
    We’ve compiled CBPP’s analyses and blog posts on House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s new poverty proposal.  We’ll update this roundup as we issue additional analyses. Blog Post:  Why Ryan’s Proposed Work Requirements Are Cause for Concern July 25, 2014 House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s new poverty plan predictably showcases the 1996 welfare law, which replaced Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) with Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), as a model for reforming other safety net programs.  For example, states would have to impose work…
  • Why Ryan’s Proposed Work Requirements Are Cause for Concern

    LaDonna Pavetti
    25 Jul 2014 | 12:30 pm
    House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s new poverty plan predictably showcases the 1996 welfare law, which replaced Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) with Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), as a model for reforming other safety net programs.  For example, states would have to impose work requirements on all recipients of assistance funded through the “Opportunity Grant” — the block grant that would replace 11 safety net and related programs — who are not classified as unable to work.  There are four key concerns about this proposal: It would divert…
  • Awaiting the 2014 Social Security Trustees’ Report

    Kathy Ruffing
    25 Jul 2014 | 10:25 am
    Social Security’s trustees will release their annual review of the program’s finances on Monday, and while we’re not sure what the report will say, the trustees last year estimated that Social Security’s combined trust funds will be exhausted in 2033.  That was well within the range that the program’s trustees have projected in their reports for the past two decades (see table). Even after the combined trust funds — the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund and the Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund — are exhausted, Social Security could still pay about…
  • House GOP Follows Ryan Anti-Poverty Plan With Pro-Poverty Legislation

    Chuck Marr
    25 Jul 2014 | 8:12 am
    House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) extolled the anti-poverty effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and, in his new poverty proposal, wisely proposed expanding it for childless adults (including non-custodial parents).  The praise that Chairman Ryan correctly gave the EITC also applies to the refundable portion of the Child Tax Credit (CTC).  Both of these essential tax credits encourage work, expand opportunity, and reduce poverty. Today, however, House Republicans are considering on the House floor permanent CTC legislation — a bill for which Rep. Ryan voted as a…
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    Eschaton

  • Morning Thread

    26 Jul 2014 | 1:56 am
    thereisnospoon @ Hullabaloo thinks there is hope for the midterms, that would be nice.
  • Friday Night

    25 Jul 2014 | 5:48 pm
    Stand and deliver.
  • Happy Hour Thread

    25 Jul 2014 | 2:13 pm
    Get your happy on.
  • Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

    25 Jul 2014 | 12:13 pm
    Obviously.WASHINGTON — The CIA obtained a confidential email to Congress about alleged whistleblower retaliation related to the Senate’s classified report on the agency’s harsh interrogation program, triggering fears that the CIA has been intercepting the communications of officials who handle whistleblower cases.
  • I Hope She Didn't Annoy You Too Much

    25 Jul 2014 | 11:07 am
    Ok then....the man with the nuclear powered shovel.
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • “An Experience with a Registered Replication Project”

    Andrew
    25 Jul 2014 | 6:52 am
    Anne Pier Salverda writes: I came across this blog entry, “An Experience with a Registered Replication Project,” and thought that you would find this interesting. It’s written by Simone Schnall, a social psychologist who is the first author of an oft-cited Psych Science(!) paper (“Cleanliness reduces the severity of moral judgments”) that a group of researchers from Michigan State failed to replicate as part of a big replication project. Schnall writes about her experience as the subject of a “failed recplication”. I like the tone of her blog entry.
  • If it was good enough for Martin Luther King and Laurence Tribe . . .

    Andrew
    24 Jul 2014 | 7:24 am
    People keep pointing me to this. P.S. I miss the old days when people would point me to bad graphs. The post If it was good enough for Martin Luther King and Laurence Tribe . . . appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • NFL players keep getting bigger and bigger

    Andrew
    24 Jul 2014 | 6:42 am
    Aleks points us to this beautiful dynamic graph by Noah Veltman showing the heights and weights of NFL players over time. The color is pretty but I think I’d prefer something simpler, just one dot per player (with some jittering to handle the discrete reporting of heights and weights). In any case, it’s a great graph. Click on the link to see it in action. P.S. Even better, once we move to a dynamic scatterplot, would be to use different colors for different positions, and to allow the reader of the graph to highlight different positions. On the linked page, Veltman writes,…
  • A world without statistics

    Andrew
    23 Jul 2014 | 6:49 am
    A reporter asked me for a quote regarding the importance of statistics. But, after thinking about it for a moment, I decided that statistics isn’t so important at all. A world without statistics wouldn’t be much different from the world we have now. What would be missing, in a world without statistics? Science would be pretty much ok. Newton didn’t need statistics for his theories of gravity, motion, and light, nor did Einstein need statistics for the theory of relativity. Thermodynamics and quantum mechanics are fundamentally statistical, but lots of progress could’ve…
  • Battle of the cozy comedians: What’s Alan Bennett’s problem with Stewart Lee?

    Andrew
    22 Jul 2014 | 6:41 am
    When in London awhile ago I picked up the book, “How I Escaped My Certain Fate: The Life and Deaths of a Stand-Up Comedian,” by Stewart Lee. I’d never heard of the guy but the book was sitting there, it had good blurbs, and from a quick flip-through it looked interesting. Now that I’ve read the whole thing, I can confirm that it really is interesting. I recommend it. Along with transcripts of some of his comedy routines—which aren’t particularly funny most of the time, at least not on the page—he has lots of discussion of what works and what…
 
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    macroblog

  • GDP Growth: Will We Find a Higher Gear?

    macroblog
    21 Jul 2014 | 12:37 pm
    We are still more than a week away from receiving the advance report for U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) from April through June. Based on what we know to date, second-quarter growth will be a large improvement over the dismal performance seen during the first three months of this year. As of today, our GDPNow model is reading an annualized second-quarter growth rate at 2.7 percent. Given that the economy declined by 2.9 percent in the first quarter, the prospects for the anticipated near-3 percent growth for 2014 as a whole look pretty dim. The first-quarter performance was dominated, of…
  • Part-Time for Economic Reasons: A Cross-Industry Comparison

    macroblog
    18 Jul 2014 | 1:38 pm
    With employment trends having turned solidly positive in recent months, attention has focused on the quality of the jobs created. See, for example, the different perspectives of Mortimer Zuckerman in the Wall Street Journal and Derek Thompson in the Atlantic. Zuckerman highlights the persistently elevated level of part-time employment—a legacy of the cutbacks firms made during the recession—whereas Thompson points out that most employment growth on net since the end of the recession has come in the form of full-time jobs. In measuring labor market slack, the part-time issue boils…
  • Introducing the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Forecasting Model

    macroblog
    10 Jul 2014 | 12:26 pm
    The June 18 statement from the Federal Open Market Committee opened with this (emphasis mine): Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that growth in economic activity has rebounded in recent months.... Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment resumed its advance, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. I highlighted the business fixed investment (BFI) part of that passage because it contracted at an…
  • The Implications of Flat or Declining Real Wages for Inequality

    macroblog
    30 Jun 2014 | 10:56 am
    A recent Policy Note published by the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College shows that what we thought had been a decade of essentially flat real wages (since 2002) has actually been a decade of declining real wages. Replicating the second figure in that Policy Note, Chart 1 shows that holding experience (i.e., age) and education fixed at their levels in 1994, real wages per hour are at levels not seen since 1997. In other words, growth in experience and education within the workforce during the past decade has propped up wages. The implication for inequality of this growth in education…
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    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • Repressive diversity

    chris dillow
    25 Jul 2014 | 6:19 am
    Nick Cohen describes how "diversity" can be used to justify illiberal inequality. I suspect this might be true in another way. What I mean is that there might be less diversity of opinion and character now than there was in the past. Naturally, I can't quantify this, but consider some of the types of character and belief which I think are not as common as they should be:  - small state Keynesians. It's possible to favour both fiscal activism and a small state - as Keynes himself did. But almost nobody now falls into this camp; pro- and anti-fiscalists map quite closely…
  • See no evil

    chris dillow
    24 Jul 2014 | 6:48 am
    Simon Wren Lewis says that the commentariat's tendency to excuse the coalition's reckless fiscal policy is due in part to groupthink:   Very Serious People’ talk to each other more often than they talk to people acquainted with the data. His point is broader and more powerful than generally realized. The fact that the ruling class talks amongst itself produces a systematic class bias. A new paper by Agne Kajackaite explains how. She got students to solve some puzzles, being paid per puzzle solved. But she also arranged that, for some people, successful solutions would not just…
  • On crowding out

    chris dillow
    23 Jul 2014 | 5:20 am
    This morning, I got into a Twitter row with Jackart. He says: "State spending CAUSES lack of private investment." I agree with him that this can happen sometimes. But I disagree with him that it happened with Gordon Brown's fiscal loosening in the mid-00s. My chart provides some background. It shows that in the mid-00s - well before the financial crisis - the government did start to run a deficit. And companies ran a surplus, with retained profits exceeding capital spending. It's also clear that, over time, these two financial balances have been mirrors of each other; the…
  • Blair's legacy

    chris dillow
    22 Jul 2014 | 6:34 am
    Most of the retrospectives on Tony Blair, prompted by the 20th anniversary of his becoming Labour leader strike me as missing something. Whilst I agree with Stephen, James and John that Britain was better place when Blair left office than when he arrived, I also largely agree with Janan: He governed with the grain of history, nudging it along from time to time, but never upending a country that was functioning well enough.By the 1990s, Britons wanted their market economy to come with better public services, and Mr Blair gave them some approximation of that settlement. They had grown liberal…
  • Internalizing constraints

    chris dillow
    21 Jul 2014 | 6:10 am
    Fans of that great 1970s TV series Colditz will remember an episode in which an inmate tries to feign madness in order to get repatriated to Britain, only to actually go mad. I was reminded of this by Ed Miliband's speech at the weekend. It contains sins of comission and omission. The sin of commission is the economically illiterate statement "You and I know we won’t have the money" and the very dubious "commitment to balancing the books in the next government". I say this is dubious because it poses so many questions: why should it be fiscal policy more than…
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    Moneybox

  • Lyft Is Launching in New York City Tonight

    Alison Griswold
    25 Jul 2014 | 9:48 am
    Two weeks after regulators brought a screeching halt to Lyft's New York City launch, the ride-sharing service has reached an agreement with the attorney general's office to begin serving customers in all five of the city's boroughs. Starting at 7 p.m. this evening, you can expect to see Lyft's pink-mustachioed cars roaming the streets alongside New York's famous yellow cabs. On its blog, Lyft is heralding the agreement as a victory for ride-sharing services and affordable transit. "This agreement is the first big step in finding a home for Lyft's peer-to-peer model in New York," the…
  • The Most Important Thing to Remember About Poverty: It’s Rarely Permanent

    Jordan Weissmann
    25 Jul 2014 | 9:23 am
    Paul Ryan, Republican action hero, finally unveiled his long-awaited anti-poverty plan yesterday. Ryan’s centerpiece proposal, which he calls “opportunity grants,” would require low-income Americans that wanted benefits to meet with case workers and craft “a customized life plan” to help them move from welfare to work. Jeff Spross of ThinkProgress referred to the idea as “church basement paternalism,” which is appropriate given that it would all but require impoverished individuals to wear a promise ring reminding them of their vow to get a job. Other liberal-leaning writers…
  • Rising Coffee Prices Spook Starbucks Investors

    Alison Griswold
    25 Jul 2014 | 8:56 am
    Some 16 months ago, Starbucks purchased its first farm, a 600-acre plot in a lush region of Costa Rica. The acquisition was a defensive one. With the help of local farmers and a team of researchers, Starbucks planned to develop new varieties of coffee beans that could better withstand Hemileia vastatrix, a parasitic fungus that is blighting coffee crops around the world. In its third-quarter earnings call on Thursday, chief executive Howard Schultz said that consumers will get a first taste of those agricultural efforts when the fall rolls around. "In September, we'll be offering an…
  • Six Reasons LinkedIn Is the Place to Find Love

    Larry Kim
    25 Jul 2014 | 4:00 am
    This story originally appeared in Inc.  Most of us are familiar with LinkedIn as the No. 1 social site for career networking. LinkedIn can help you get a job and show off your credentials and, unexpectedly, even help you find love. Here are six reasons LinkedIn is love's secret weapon. 1. It has a huge network. With more than 300 million users across 200 countries and territories, LinkedIn boasts a significant number of targets for Cupid's arrows. And better yet, these are prime potential dates. LinkedIn is a network of driven, working professionals, not sketchy men taking shirtless…
  • Chocolate Is the Latest Foodstuff to Become Super-Expensive

    Alison Griswold
    24 Jul 2014 | 2:37 pm
    Sure, most food is expensive these days, but chocolate is on a tear. On Thursday, Mars, the company behind the likes of M&M's and 3 Musketeers, said it was raising prices for chocolate products in the U.S. by about 7 percent to make up for higher ingredient costs. The decision followed a similar move from Hershey a week ago, which announced an increase of roughly 8 percent in wholesale prices to offset increased commodity, transportation, and manufacturing costs. The hike in chocolate prices is being driven by the soaring cost of cocoa beans, which has risen 18 percent this year alone. On…
 
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    Economic Development BlogEconomic Development Blog -

  • New York Awards $55M For Projects Connecting Economic Development to Academic Programs

    Economic Development HQ.com
    25 Jul 2014 | 8:07 am
    Governor Andrew M. Cuomo announced $55 million in funding for eight innovative projects that connect academic programs at 20 participating CUNY campuses with local economic development. NY CUNY 2020 (photo – cuny.edu) The eight projects in NYC being funded are expected to create more than 3,800 jobs over six years. “The CUNY 2020 program is designed to connect the innovative, academic programs offered by New York City’s public universities to local economic development,” said Governor Cuomo. The CUNY 2020 program offers grants for colleges in the City University of New York system…
  • Florida Announces GE Energy Management Expansion in Clearwater

    Economic Development HQ.com
    25 Jul 2014 | 1:39 am
    The $50 million GE Energy Management expansion in Clearwater, FL was finally publicly announced by Governor Rick Scott. GE Energy Management expansion announcement (Enterprise Floridas) Instrument Transformers, Inc., a GE subsidiary, already has a facility in Clearwater with 436 employees. GE Energy Management is now establishing a 190,000 square feet manufacturing Center of Excellence that includes the existing ITI facility and a new capacitor manufacturing facility. The expansion will bring 250 new jobs to Clearwater and Pinellas County. “General Electric Energy Management’s investment…
  • Urban Outfitters Gets $3M Pennsylvania Economic Development Grant for Solar Array Installation

    Economic Development HQ.com
    24 Jul 2014 | 10:22 pm
    Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett announced a $3 million grant to help Urban Outfitters, Inc. install a 3MW rooftop solar array at their new Gap fulfillment center in Lancaster County, PA. Urban Outfitters (photo – Minnaert/Wikipedia) The array atop the fulfillment center in Gap will be the largest roof-mounted solar energy system in Pennsylvania, and the seventh largest overall among the existing solar energy installations in Pennsylvania. The solar array will produce enough renewable energy to cover 50 percent of the energy needs of the 970,000-square-foot fulfillment center. The $3…
  • City of Cleveland Launching Rethink Cleveland Economic Development Website and Brand

    Economic Development HQ.com
    24 Jul 2014 | 8:03 am
    The Cleveland Economic Development Department is getting a new website as part of a “Rethink Cleveland” branding campaign that aims to alter perceptions about the City and serve as a resource for site selectors and businesses looking to relocate or expand in Cleveland. Rethink Cleveland launch The website at www.rethinkcleveland.org will be unveiled at an event at the Ariel International Center by Mayor Frank G. Jackson, City of Cleveland Economic Development Director Tracey Nichols, and the Board of the Cleveland Citywide Development Corp. The Rethink Cleveland branding campaign has a…
  • Vermont Approves $17.8M in Economic Development Financing for Projects

    Economic Development HQ.com
    24 Jul 2014 | 1:31 am
    The Vermont Economic Development Authority announced approval of $17.8 million in financing to support multiple projects and initiatives that are generating a total investment of nearly $35 million in the state. Rice Memorial High School renovation (photo – rmhsvt.org) Five of the projects are getting direct loans and bond financing worth nearly $12.6 million. One of these projects is a school renovation by the Roman Catholic Diocese of Burlington. They’re getting $8.5 million in tax-exempt bonds for a substantial renovation of Rice Memorial High School in South Burlington, VT. The…
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    Washington Center for Equitable Growth

  • Reflections on Our First Round of Grants: Thursday Focus for July 24, 2014

    Brad DeLong
    24 Jul 2014 | 7:36 pm
    Washington Center for Equitable Growth Announces Inaugural Class of Grantees: “Equitable Growth will award $481,000 to 15 grantees… …with additional funding for two of those grantees provided by the Russell Sage Foundation…. “Motivating academic economists to investigate whether and how structural changes in the U.S. economy, particularly those related to the distribution of wealth and the provision of opportunity, affect economic growth is exceedingly important,” says Heather Boushey, executive director and chief economist at Equitable Growth…. Philip…
  • Things to Read at Night on July 24, 2014

    Brad DeLong
    24 Jul 2014 | 6:11 pm
    Should-Reads: Aida Caldera Sánchez et al.: Improving Well-Being in the United States: “Life is quite good in the United States compared to other OECD countries, thanks to strong economic growth and technological progress having lifted average income to high levels. Nonetheless, there is evidence that the benefits from growth have not been sufficiently broad based. Self-reported happiness increases with income, an issue particularly resonant in a country with among the highest levels of income inequality in the OECD and a pattern of inequality that appears to be moving toward even more…
  • Lunchtime Must-Read: Ezra Klein: Paul Ryan’s Poverty Plan

    Brad DeLong
    24 Jul 2014 | 10:03 am
    Ezra Klein: Paul Ryan’s Poverty Plan: “P The most important idea in Paul Ryan’s poverty plan… …reverses the most important idea in Paul Ryan’s budgets. Those budgets… [made] deep cuts to spending on programs for the poor the cornerstone of Republican fiscal policy… cut spending on the programs that fight poverty. Ryan’s poverty plan is… a sharp break with his budgets… an attempt to change the Republican Party’s view–a view driven, in large part, by Paul Ryan and his budgets–of what to do with programs for the…
  • Morning Must-Read: Brian Buetler: The Adler-Cannon Halbig v. Burwell Argument Is a Fraud—Just Ask Scott Brown

    Brad DeLong
    24 Jul 2014 | 5:54 am
    Brian Buetler: The Adler-Cannon Halbig v. Burwell Argument Is a Fraud–Just Ask Scott Brown: “It is now an article of faith on the right that Congress meant to condition the subsidies… …as an inducement to states, but overestimated the power of that inducement. I suspect many of the people advancing this claim realize that it is false, and are engaged in an elaborate gaslighting campaign. Others have probably convinced themselves that they are correct…. They need both an elaborate theory of legislative intent, and judges who are happy to treat the theory as…
  • Morning Must-Read: Guido Matias Cortes et al.: The Micro and Macro of Disappearing Routine Jobs: A Flows Approach

    Brad DeLong
    24 Jul 2014 | 5:35 am
    Guido Matias Cortes et al.: The Micro and Macro of Disappearing Routine Jobs: A Flows Approach: “The U.S. labor market has become… …increasingly polarized since the 1980s, with the share of employment in middle-wage occupations shrinking over time. This job polarization process has been associated with the disappearance of per capita employment in occupations focused on routine tasks. We use matched individual-level data from the CPS to study labor market flows into and out of routine occupations and determine how this disappearance has played out at the ‘micro’…
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    The Indian Economist

  • The Escalation of Conflict in Israel

    TIE
    25 Jul 2014 | 7:30 pm
    By Christian Stellakis  Edited by Sanchita Malhotra, As […]The post The Escalation of Conflict in Israel appeared first on The Indian Economist.
  • Ignorance about sex is NOT bliss

    TIE
    25 Jul 2014 | 7:30 pm
    By Sidhant Srivastava Edited by Sanchita Malhotra, Asso […]The post Ignorance about sex is NOT bliss appeared first on The Indian Economist.
  • The end of the Syrian crisis

    TIE
    25 Jul 2014 | 7:30 pm
    By Ashwath Komath Edited by Michelle Cherian, Associate […]The post The end of the Syrian crisis appeared first on The Indian Economist.
  • Who will have the last laugh?

    TIE
    25 Jul 2014 | 7:30 pm
    By Anubha Gautam Edited by Sanchita Malhotra, Associate […]The post Who will have the last laugh? appeared first on The Indian Economist.
  • Dissecting Comedy in the News

    TIE
    25 Jul 2014 | 7:30 pm
    By Christian Stellakis  Edited by Sanchita Malhotra, As […]The post Dissecting Comedy in the News appeared first on The Indian Economist.
 
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    FiveThirtyEight » Economics | FiveThirtyEight

  • North Dakota’s Oil Bonanza Is Unsustainable

    Ben Casselman
    21 Jul 2014 | 3:00 am
    A decade ago, North Dakota was a wind-swept also-ran in the oil industry. Wildcatters struck oil there in the 1950s, but the rock was too dense to get most of it out, and the fields never amounted to much. The state produced about 30 million barrels of oil in 2004, enough to satisfy U.S. demand for about a day and a half.Then everything changed. In the mid-2000s, companies in Texas had figured out how to extract natural gas from dense shale rock near Fort Worth. A few enterprising oil men figured the same approach might work in North Dakota’s oil fields, and after a few false starts, they…
  • Corporate America Is Enriching Shareholders at the Expense of the Economy

    Douglas Skinner
    15 Jul 2014 | 4:00 am
    Economics 101 tells us there are basically two things you can do with your money: Spend it and enjoy the benefits of your new purchases today, or invest it — with the hope that you’ll make more money in the future. This basic trade-off between consumption and investment applies to companies as well. Over the past decade, the balance in corporate America has swung toward consumption, raising concerns about the U.S.’s future economic growth.Let me explain what “consumption” means in a company’s case. Rather than saving its money to grow the business, the company gives back…
  • Immigration Is Changing Much More Than the Immigration Debate

    Ben Casselman
    9 Jul 2014 | 3:08 am
    In 1994, California Governor Pete Wilson aired television ads showing people scrambling across the Mexican border near San Diego. “The rules are being broken,” a narrator intoned. “Pete Wilson has had the courage to say enough is enough.” Wilson, who at one point trailed in the polls, ended up cruising to an easy re-election.Two decades later, the rhetoric around immigration hasn’t changed much — just look at Virginia, where long-shot challenger Dave Brat upset Eric Cantor in part by promising to “secure the border” and “reject any proposal that grants amnesty” to…
  • Lessons From Brazil’s War on Poverty

    Berk Özler
    2 Jul 2014 | 3:00 am
    Brazil is a giant when it comes to soccer. In the late 1990s, it was a giant in another area, this one much less desirable: Brazil had one of the highest levels of income inequality in the world, as home to some of the world’s poorest people, while its richest competed with the wealthiest in the United States and elsewhere.20In 2001, Brazil’s Gini coefficient — the most common (but not necessarily most attractive) measure of inequality21 — hovered around 0.60, a very high figure by any standard. (A Gini coefficient of 0 represents perfect equality where everyone earns…
  • Why Budget Airlines Could Soon Charge You to Use the Bathroom

    Luke Jensen
    30 Jun 2014 | 3:00 am
    An urban legend in the airline industry claims that the former CEO of American Airlines, Bob Crandall, once saved his company $100,000 a year by calling for the removal of a single olive from every in-flight salad.30 As the story goes, some of these savings came from lower fuel burn thanks to fewer olives, and thus a lighter load on each flight in the American network.This story is particularly relevant today, as fuel prices are near historic highs and airline executives are searching for every possible way to cut costs. Take Southwest Airlines. Have you ever noticed that the airline…
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    Economics and everyday life at EconLife.com

  • Our Weekly Roundup: From the Invisible Hand to Invisible People

    Elaine Schwartz
    26 Jul 2014 | 5:00 am
    Today's weekly roundup includes the everyday economics of invisibles like the cost of tariffs, the market, certain jobs, measures and the impact of a canal.
  • The Inflated Cost of Car Tires

    Elaine Schwartz
    25 Jul 2014 | 5:15 am
    Because the benefits of the tire tariff are concentrated while its cost is diffuse and invisible, government tend to create this type of regulation.
  • Amazon Prime Air

    Econlife Editor
    24 Jul 2014 | 7:00 am
    Amazon’s newest idea is to deliver packages to customers in 30 minutes or less using unmanned drones.  Vote and comment!
  • How the New Panama Canal Affects Us

    Elaine Schwartz
    24 Jul 2014 | 5:00 am
    When larger vessels use a wider, deeper Panama Canal, they will create economies of scale and shift the invisible lines that show worldwide supply chains.
  • The Invisible People in Your Life

    Elaine Schwartz
    23 Jul 2014 | 5:00 am
    The highly skilled human capital that we ignore is invisible because their behind-the scenes jobs make things work.
 
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    Vox - All

  • Quiz: Are you blaming the victim?

    Lauren Williams
    25 Jul 2014 | 3:30 pm
    Stephen A. Smith, one of ESPN's marquee sports commentators, felt the wrath of Twitter Friday afternoon after an on-air conversation about domestic violence took a controversial but familiar turn. Smith was discussing NFL player Ray Rice, who recently received a two-game suspension from the Baltimore Ravens as punishment for a February arrest for assaulting his now-wife. Smith noted that violence against women is wrong, but he also cautioned women to "make sure [they] don't do anything to provoke wrong actions" and to do their part "in making sure [an assault] doesn't happen." This sparked…
  • Legislation on cell phone unlocking is a huge missed opportunity

    Timothy B. Lee
    25 Jul 2014 | 3:22 pm
    On Friday, the House of Representatives passed legislation toallow people to unlock their cell phones in order to take them to a different wireless carrier. The Senate approved the same legislation earlier this month, which means the bill is headed to President Obama for his signature. The legislation became necessary after a controversial 2012 decision from the Librarian of Congress that raised the possibility that taking your cell phone to a new wireless carrier could violate copyright law. Unfortunately, Congress has chosen the narrowest possible approach to addressing the issue. Lawmakers…
  • Trailer: The Walking Dead Season 5 looks brutal

    Alex Abad-Santos
    25 Jul 2014 | 3:20 pm
    Warning: There are some spoilers regarding the past season and upcoming of The Walking Dead in this post. On Friday, AMC released a trailer for the fifth season of The Walking Dead. The last time we saw Rick and his crew of misfit zombie killers, they had all been rounded up at Terminus and seemingly destined to die (and possibly turned into lunch) at the hands of some floppy-haired hipsters (who might be cannibals).  Well, things don't look like they're going to get any better anytime soon: Each season of TWD has been a guessing game of "Who's gonna bite it?" Last season was Hershel,…
  • Mad Men meets nuclear war on WGN America's new series Manhattan

    Todd VanDerWerff
    25 Jul 2014 | 2:10 pm
    WGN America's new series Manhattan is the result of an unlikely attempt to cross-pollinate Lost with Mad Men, only the audience knows the answer to almost every mystery on the show is "the atomic bomb." On the Lost side of things, Manhattan is basically a mystery show, like that one. Episodes are constructed so that characters are keeping secrets from each other (and occasionally the audience), and the show's larger plot is built around the deeper mystery of what this strange base in the middle of the desert is up to. But because everybody watching will have some rough idea of what the…
  • Meet the worst transit project in America

    Matthew Yglesias
    25 Jul 2014 | 1:50 pm
    With Detroit suffering from massive population loss and an inability to keep up its basic infrastructure (see the water crisis, or the city's many non-functioning traffic lights) it certainly seems odd to be spending tens of millions of dollars on a short new streetcar line. But while Jim Epstein's Reason article asking "Is Detroit's New Light Rail Line America's Greatest Boondoggle?" raises many good points about the project, the sad reality is that it's not even close to being the most egregious boondoggle going. The current fad for streetcar construction is actually bequeathing quite a…
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    Commentary - Money, Banking and Financial Markets

  • How big can the U.S. current account stay?

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    24 Jul 2014 | 5:12 am
    In the past few years, the U.S. current account deficit has shrunk from over 6% of GDP in mid-2006 to less than 3% today. Since these current account deficits reflect capital account surpluses, many people view them as a symptom of the problems that led to the crisis. That is, funds from abroad were fueling the credit boom in the United States, which in turn fed the boom in housing prices, etc.As you can see in the chart below, over the past three decades the U.S current account has been in surplus only briefly in the first half of 1990. Since then, it has been continuously in deficit. How is…
  • Truth or consequences: Ponzi schemes and other frauds

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    21 Jul 2014 | 8:15 am
    In the financial world, the real scandal is often what’s legal, but you still have to watch out for fraudsters. If you don’t pay the costs of screening and monitoring your financial counterparties, you may lose your house (no metaphor intended).The never-ending need for financial vigilance came to mind recently when we noticed that the 1920 home of Charles Ponzi was for sale in Lexington Massachusetts. It’s a very large house – 7 bedrooms, 6 bathrooms, 7000 square feet of space (650 square meters) on nearly an acre of land (0.4 hectares).  (You can see a picture here.)Ponzi was a…
  • Debt, Great Recession and the Awful Recovery

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    17 Jul 2014 | 5:18 am
    Debt has been reviled at least since biblical times, frequently for reasons of class (“The rich rule over the poor, and the borrower is slave to the lender.” Proverbs 22:7). In their new book, House of Debt, Atif Mian and Amir Sufi portray the income and wealth differences between borrowers and lenders as the key to the Great Recession and the Awful Recovery (our term). If, as they argue, the “debt overhang” story trumps the now-conventional narrative of a financial crisis-driven economic collapse, policymakers will also need to revise the tools they use to combat such deep…
  • The VIX: The only thing to fear is the lack of fear itself

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    14 Jul 2014 | 5:36 am
    The VIX has been called the fear index.  That is, it is a measure of the uncertainty and risk that investors see over the near future (specifically, the next 30 days).  Constructed from options on S&P500 index futures, the VIX is technically a gauge of what is called implied volatility. (For a definition, see the brief note at the end of this post.)The technicalities are not all that important, as the VIX and similar options-based measures of implied volatility (like the DJIA Volatility Index shown with the VIX in the chart below) track financial conditions pretty well. When…
  • Is the Fed Behind the Curve?

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    10 Jul 2014 | 5:23 am
    Imagine Fed Governor Rip van Winkle started his nap at the beginning of 2007 and just woke up to find that inflation is close to the Fed’s objective and the unemployment rate is at its 30-year average. You could forgive him for expecting the federal funds rate to be close to its long-run norm of about 4%, and for his surprise upon learning that the funds rate is at 0.1% and Fed assets are five times where they were when his snooze began.Is the Fed already behind the curve? Why do policymakers emphasize their expectation that rates will stay low “for a considerable time” beyond October…
 
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    Credence Independent Advisors

  • Britain’s economy set, finally, to recover ground lost to crisis

    Chris Ferguson
    25 Jul 2014 | 1:26 am
    Gross domestic product is expected to have kept up the same strong pace as in the first three months of the year, expanding by 0.8 percent in the April-June period, according to a Reuters poll of economists. In annual terms, growth is forecast to have been 3.1 percent, the fastest pace since late 2007. That will mean that gross domestic product is finally back above levels seen in the first quarter of 2008, when problems in the world’s banking sector were rapidly building into a storm that hammered the global economy. Britain’s economy largely flat-lined after a 2008-09 recession.
  • Mark Carney: rates must rise to avoid housing bubble

    Thomas Crowe
    24 Jul 2014 | 3:08 am
    The Governor of the Bank of England, the so-called “unreliable boyfriend” of monetary policy, has issued another hint at an imminent rate rise A dangerous housing bubble could develop if interest rates are kept at their historic lows for too long, Mark Carney has warned in his latest hint about an impending change to monetary policy. The Governor of the Bank of England said that interest rates will be “materially lower” in the medium term than they have been historically, but warned that a rise will have to happen soon to avoid “other risks” developing. Speaking at a…
  • Saudi Arabia gives green light to ease foreign ownership restrictions

    Dermot Crawford
    23 Jul 2014 | 4:03 am
    Foreign investors are poised to enter Saudi Arabia’s US$531 billion stock market after the government gave the go-ahead for foreign ownership restrictions to be eased. The kingdom’s cabinet had allowed foreign financial institutions to buy and sell stocks directly on the Tadawul All Share Index, the official news agency, SPA, said yesterday. The institutions would be able to invest in shares during the first half of next year, the Capital Market Authority said in a separate statement. The kingdom’s benchmark index rallied in response to close up 2.8 per cent. “These announcements have…
  • Asian stocks show improvement, upbeat US corporate earnings

    Jamil Al Maani
    21 Jul 2014 | 12:11 am
    Monday saw Asian stocks showing some improvement and becoming a fraction firmer. The change came after investors started focusing on the upbeat flow of US corporate earnings, just before a host of results, which are due for this week. The investors have set aside geopolitical concerns for the moment. The volumes kept low, however with the Japanese markets on holiday. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan increased by 0.24%, showing small gains for most markets across Asia. The results which are due for this week include the reporting of a number of US companies;…
  • Ukraine unrest, Gaza keep pressure on shares; bonds steady

    Mark Boyes
    18 Jul 2014 | 8:07 am
    (Reuters) – World markets remained under pressure on Friday after a Malaysian airliner was downed near the Ukraine-Russia border and Israel stepped up a ground assault against Gaza militants. As investors scurried into defensive assets, European shares .FTEU3 saw more selling after falling heavily on Thursday. Demand for safe-haven German government bonds kept their yields DE10YT=TWEB near record lows. World leaders demanded an international investigation into the downing of the Malaysian plane with 298 people on board over eastern Ukraine. Kiev and Moscow blamed each other for a…
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