Economics

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    WSJ: Real time economics

  • Dodd: Bernanke Confirmation ‘Not Necessarily’ a Foregone Conclusion

    20 Nov 2009 | 2:57 pm
    Sen. Chris Dodd (D., Conn.) today announced that Ben Bernanke’s reappointment hearing will be held on Dec. 3, the same day as President Barack Obama’s jobs summit, and said the Federal Reserve chairman’s confirmation isn’t necessarily a foregone conclusion. Bernanke’s reappointment has been widely expected to move through the Senate fairly smoothly. In August Sen. Dodd issued a statement supportive of the Fed chairman. “Chairman Bernanke was too slow to act during the early stages of the foreclosure crisis, but he ultimately demonstrated effective…

  • TARP’s Capital Purchase Program: In With a Bang, Out With a Whimper

    20 Nov 2009 | 2:07 pm
    Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said this week that he’s working to put TARP “out of its misery” and the government will move one step closer to that goal on Saturday, when the deadline for banks seeking to access government funds expires. After funneling more than $200 billion into 690 financial institutions, the Treasury will stop taking applications for firms that want government funds. Treasury has extended the deadline in the past but officials believe the markets have strengthened enough that banks in need of capital can now raise it from private sources, rather than the…

  • Mass Layoffs Slow, but Remain High

    20 Nov 2009 | 1:28 pm
    The number of workers fired in mass layoffs dropped for the second month in October, the Labor Department said Friday. A total of 217,182 people lost their jobs last month as part of a mass layoff of at least 50 people, 30,824 fewer than the previous month, adjusted for seasonality. The number of laid off workers also fell by 13,148 year over year. Layoffs remain high, though. The number of people let go in mass layoffs since the beginning of the year reached 2.6 million, the highest since the department started recording the data in April 1995. The manufacturing sector counted for 36% of…

  • Geithner Not the First Treasury Secretary to Spar With Lawmakers

    20 Nov 2009 | 11:42 am
    Thursday’s shouting match between Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and lawmakers on the Joint Economic Committee raised eyebrows but Mr. Geithner isn’t the first Treasury Secretary to find himself publicly sparring with a Senator. In 2002, then-Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill got into a tense, emotional exchange with West Virginia Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd over, of all things, which of them grew up in a ditch. The volley began when Mr. Byrd suggested that Mr. O’Neill, who had come to Treasury from aluminum giant Alcoa Inc., was not looking out for the interests of those less…

  • Axel Weber, Unplugged

    20 Nov 2009 | 9:58 am
    European Central Bank watchers have been buzzing in recent months about Bundesbank President Axel Weber as one of the potential successors to Jean-Claude Trichet in 2011. Bundesbank President Axel Weber. (AFP/Getty Images) Weber’s appearance on a banking conference panel Friday offered some clues what ECB meetings might look like under a Weber presidency. He gives as good as he gets. And ECB press conferences would never be the same. Weber repeatedly blamed the financial crisis on lax risk management at banks, and was equally forceful in stressing that monetary policy was not to blame.
 
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    naked capitalism

  • Antidote du Jour

    Yves Smith
    20 Nov 2009 | 10:30 pm
    Apologies for absence of links! Hope to be back to closer to usual programming early next week.

  • Stop the madness now!

    Edward Harrison
    20 Nov 2009 | 1:08 pm
    By Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. A reader at Naked Capitalism asked us to respond to a recent article from the Christian Science Monitor asking Does US need a second stimulus to create jobs? Marshall Auerback has already done some heavy lifting – and taken all of the heat in the comments. He says emphatically yes. Now I want to take a crack at this. My short answer is no. But before I go into this, as an aside, I wanted to mention Marshall’s new smiling, happy picture up at the great blog New Deal 2.0 where he now writes.  Earlier, when Credit Writedowns was hosted at…

  • Dodd: Bernanke Confirmation “Not Necessarily” a Foregone Conclusion

    Yves Smith
    20 Nov 2009 | 10:06 am
    This clip is from an interview with blogger Mike Stark. Apologies for the poor sound quality. While Dodd indicates that he is “inclined to be supportive” of Bernanke, he is surprisingly cautious about making a broader statement, a sign of a shift in sentiment.

  • Ivy Zelman: “Home prices are going back down”

    Edward Harrison
    20 Nov 2009 | 4:59 am
    By Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. Yves is stuffed again today, so I am going to post at least once or twice. Hopefully, we will also see something from Jesse or George as well. This is a post I wrote overnight about rising delinquencies and shadow housing inventory. I am not convinced house prices in the U.S. are headed higher permanently and this post points out why. The Mortgage Bankers Association is reporting that nearly one in ten households with mortgages are at least one payment behind.  That is a record, my friends. And it certainly means we cannot believe house prices…

  • Links 11/20/09

    Yves Smith
    19 Nov 2009 | 11:02 pm
    the price of water Archein Lions kill rare white tiger at Czech Republic zoo BBC (hat tip reader Steve L) Moira man fights off deer attack Press Republican (hat tip reader John L) Cinema popcorn is nutritional horror show: US study Raw Story (hat tip reader John D) The jobless rate-interest rate conundrum Tim Iacono Canada’s sub-prime mortgage time bomb Rabble Goldman Holders Miffed at Bonuses Wall Street Journal White House Rebuke: Angry Dems Shut Down Vote Huffington Post (hat tip DoctoRx) Easy Loans in Expensive Areas New York Times Leading Economic Indicators Losing Strength…
 
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    Economics Latest News, Politics Breaking Stories, Market Top Headlines

  • Mercedes Plans a Small-Car Volley

    13 Nov 2009 | 3:18 am
    Daimler AG is considering launching a series of small Mercedes-Benz cars in the U.S. in a bid to tap Americans' growing interest in downsized models that offer upscale features and finishes, the German car maker's chief executive said. Under its tentative plan, Mercedes would import by 2012 at least one of four next-generation compact models it will start selling in Europe in late 2011, Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. These diminutive Mercedes would go head to head with an expanding field of premium small cars in the U.S., including the A3 from…

  • Wal-Mart Sees Tough Holidays

    13 Nov 2009 | 3:18 am
    Wal-Mart Stores Inc. offered a tepid forecast for its fourth-quarter, reinforcing the notion that holiday sales will be more ho-hum than ho-ho despite raising its profit outlook for the full year. The Bentonville, Ark.-based retailer said it expects fourth-quarter sales at U.S. stores open at least a year to be unchanged, compared with a gain of 2.4% in the year-ago quarter, as shoppers settle into a more frugal pattern. "The shopper has reset how he is spending money and that has affected retail in general," said Wal-Mart Treasurer Charles Holley on Thursday. In addition to the economy,…

  • Disney Profit Rises

    13 Nov 2009 | 3:18 am
    Walt Disney Co. said fiscal fourth-quarter profit rose 18%, driven by strength at its cable networks, and its key theme parks division showed signs of improvement. The results followed news of a management shake-up in which Disney said Chief Financial Officer Tom Staggs would switch positions with the head of its parks division, Jay Rasulo. It's unclear how the move might fit into any succession plans for chief executive Robert Iger, 58 years old. People close to the company said the job swap didn't indicate a succession horserace. Mr. Rasulo, 53, has been with Disney since 1986, and in his…

  • Boeing Dreamliner s New Wrinkle

    13 Nov 2009 | 3:18 am
    Boeing Co. said Thursday it had finished fixing the problem that had forced it to postpone the maiden flight of its long-delayed 787 Dreamliner. But in making the repair, the aerospace giant got a fresh reminder of the complexities involved in working with the high-tech materials used to build the aircraft. Damage to the area where the wings join the plane's body emerged during stress testing earlier this year. That prompted Boeing to delay flight testing of the aircraft and urgently search for a repair. As Boeing raced to find a remedy this summer, it discovered another issue with the ...

  • TeliaSonera, Alfa Seek MegaFon, Turkcell Tie-Up

    13 Nov 2009 | 3:17 am
    MOSCOW – Russian conglomerate Alfa Group and Swedish telecommunications operator TeliaSonera AB Thursday agreed to combine stakes to create a U.S.-listed company with control over two of the largest mobile firms in Russia and Turkey. If approved, the deal will mark a victory for Alfa and TeliaSonera, which will join forces in a battle with Turkey's Turkcell AS co-investor Cukurova Group, and also seek to unlock the value of their multi-billion stakes in privately held Russian operator OAO MegaFon. The agreement comes a month after Alfa ended a five-year legal battle with Norway's…
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    NYT: Paul Krugman

  • Interest rates: the phantom menace

    By PAUL KRUGMAN
    20 Nov 2009 | 8:44 am
    What I think lies behind the surprising deficit squeamishness of the Obama administration, and why it's wrong-headed.

  • Exterminate! Exterminate!

    By PAUL KRUGMAN
    20 Nov 2009 | 1:59 am
    Daleks and EU foreign policy.

  • Invisible bond vigilantes

    By PAUL KRUGMAN
    19 Nov 2009 | 12:39 pm
    It would be a very, very bad thing if the administration is intimidated into passivity -- or, worse, into neo-Hooverism -- by the threat from invisible, probably imaginary enforcers.

  • The AIG report

    By PAUL KRUGMAN
    18 Nov 2009 | 1:21 am
    By itself, the AIG story would be damaging enough. But it's part of a pattern -- and that pattern has ended up undermining the economy's prospects, big time.

  • The madness of the inflation hawks

    By PAUL KRUGMAN
    16 Nov 2009 | 8:59 am
    Monetary tightening shouldn't be on the agenda for a long, long time.
 
 
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    alpha.sources

  • Random Shots

    CV
    13 Nov 2009 | 4:09 am
    As I am preparing for a tournament this weekend in Sweden I only have time for some random shots, but then again; taking random shots seem to be exactly what the markets are all about at the moment. The first such random shot came from today's release of the GDP figures from Europe which showed, with much fanfare, how the Eurzone (and Europe) is now effectively out of recession. (quote Bloomberg) The euro-area economy emerged from its worst recession since World War II in the third quarter as exports from Germany and France helped compensate for households’ reluctance to increase…

  • The IMF on Asia's Recovery and its Sustainability

    CV
    8 Nov 2009 | 9:13 pm
    Update 2: Mr Singh has left a comment below in response to my piece. Go check it out. Update: Mr. Singh posts the third and, as far as I know, last installment in the series on Asia's outlook written on the basis of the Regional Economic Outlook for the Asian and Pacific Region. The topic is perhaps the most interesting of all aspects of Asia's aggregate economy, the high prevalence of savings and its excess over investment which produces a corresponding external surplus which, I'd might add, is structural at this point. See below for more comments. In case you had not noticed, the IMF is…

  • Too Much of a Good Thing in Australia?

    CV
    5 Nov 2009 | 4:51 am
    (click on pictures for better viewing) It is indeed an old adage that while goods things are to be preferred over bad things it is possible to get too much of the former. Looking at recent comments from the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia it is not difficult to imagine how these, albeit old and worn, pearls of wisdom may well have inspired Mr. Stevens in his effort to tiptoe the thigthrope between signalling the intention to raise rates into an expected economic recovery on the one side and trying to prevent the Aussie shoot of on helium into the sun with wings of wax on the other.

  • Japanes Companies, Exports and the Current Account

    CV
    2 Nov 2009 | 8:54 am
    (click on pictures for better viewing) Last week, we learned that industrial production rose yet again in Japan clocking in at 1.4% month-on-month in September after having increased by 1.6% in August. Companies said they planned to increase production in October and November as well, indicating the recovery from a record export collapse in the first quarter is holding up. Growth in China is generating sales for manufacturers including Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., which this week said it has worked off stockpiles that piled up during the recession. “The pace of the recovery is…

  • Are Americans Becoming Less Nomadic?

    CV
    25 Oct 2009 | 10:53 am
    As a puny yet honest attempt to show you that I actually read other things than plain economics I thought that I would share this piece with you on declining nomadism amongst Americans; it is written for Newsweek by author Joel Kotkin. I am not quite sure whether he believes the ageing of the population to be the decisive factor contributing to the rise of localism which he speaks about or just a factor among many. I would presume that sociologists and historians could find an explanation for this development in their distinct theoretical tool kits too without invoking the demographic…
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    re: The Auditors

  • @Going Concern “Lost Your Job? No One Cares!”

    My new post is up @Going Concern. "You may have been cut from one of the audit firms in the past several months. You may still be working but feeling a bit insecure. The cuts have been well documented here and on re: The Auditors. Regardless of how much the firms ...

  • The FEI CFRI Conference…And More

    Charlotte: Let's never come here again because it will never be as much fun. ******************************************************************************************* I've just wrapped up two days of conference attendance here in New York City - The FEI Current Issues in Financial Reporting Conference and the Directorship Boardroom Leaders Forum. How were these conferences the same: Attendees were corporate ...

  • Where The Wild Things Are… FEI’s CFRI Conference Next Week NYC

    I'm off to NYC next week to cover FEI's Annual Current Financial Reporting Issues Conference. In addition to spending some time with my friend and technical guru, Edith Orenstein, I hope to see even more people at some formal and informal gatherings. It's been a while since I last visited New York. ...

  • Privacy Policy and Terms of Use

    Last week was a very busy and very difficult week at re: The Auditors HQ. However, those of you who lost your jobs at PwC and other firms, or those who were left behind with survivor’s guilt, faced much tougher challenges. Yes. Look to your left, look ...

  • Taking Your Pulse

    Taking Your Pulse Sunday morning 11/08/09 How many different ways can you search for news of the PwC Advisory layoffs and find this blog? 7 habits of strong ehical leaders big 4 coached out unemployment big 4 salary big 4 starting salary big four salaries nyc blog november, auditors, pwc advisory bonus of big 4 deloitte resignation procedure graduate enron ...
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    American Prospect: beat the press

  • CNN Money Takes Strong Editorial Stand on the Budget in News Section

    20 Nov 2009 | 11:22 am
    CNN Money decided to highlight the fact that when the debt increases, interest payments will rise. While those familiar with basic arithmetic probably already understood this fact, CNN Money decided that this is big news. To make this fact more newsworthy, CNN Money decided to say some things that were untrue and some that were meaningless. In the untrue category we get the shocking fact in the subhead that: " the interest Americans will have to pay to keep the country running over the next decade will reach unheard of levels." Actually, those of us old enough to remember back to the 90s have…

  • The People Who Missed an $8 Trillion Housing Bubble and Thought Iceland's Economy Was Thriving Oppose Auditing the Fed

    20 Nov 2009 | 3:26 am
    That is what Alan Blinder tells us in a Washington Post column today. Blinder tells us that the vast majority of academic economists and people in the financial industry oppose efforts to make the Fed more accountable to Congress. (He also bizarrely asserts that "very, very few" people support more congressional control of the Fed. This would seem to be inconsistent with the support for the Paul-Grayson bill to audit the Fed.) Blinder tells us why more congressional input into monetary policy would be a bad thing. He notes that the Fed will start to raise interest rates at some point when the…

  • Good NYT Piece on Effort to Bankrupt the FHA

    20 Nov 2009 | 3:12 am
    The NYT has an excellent piece on how the increase in FHA mortgage limits have made it a subsidy program for relatively affluent families, speculators, and frauds. --Dean Baker

  • David Brooks Has Not Noticed the Recession

    20 Nov 2009 | 2:59 am
    David Brooks pronounces the government's bailout of Wall Street a huge success. This is an interesting assessment. It is true that the financial sector profits are at a record high as a share of all corporate profits and the financial sector has reached a new record share of private sector income, and the industry stands to pay record bonuses this year, but these may not be the best measures of success to people other than Mr. Brooks. There is little doubt that if the government gives enough money to the Wall Street banks that they can stay afloat and prosper, as they have shown. However most…

  • TARP Money Cannot Be Used to Pay Down the Debt!

    19 Nov 2009 | 2:49 am
    Arghhhhhhh! TARP is a loan program, not a spending program. Let's explain the difference so that even a Washington Post editor can understand it. A loan is expected to be paid back. When Congress appropriates money for a loan, it does not add to the deficit. The government lends out money, but it owns a loan that it expects to be paid back. The only cost to the government is either any subsidy implicit in the loan or the losses on loans that are not repaid. The Congressional Budget Office expected the bulk of the TARP money to be repaid, therefore it was never scored as spending. Only the…
 
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    Robert Reich's Blog

  • Harry Reid, and What Happened to the Public Option

    Robert Reich
    19 Nov 2009 | 7:58 am
    First there was Medicare for all 300 million of us. But that was a non-starter because private insurers and Big Pharma wouldn't hear of it, and Republicans and "centrists" thought it was too much like what they have up in Canada -- which, by the way, cost Canadians only 10 percent of their GDP and covers every Canadian. (Our current system of private for-profit insurers costs 16 percent of GDP and leaves out 45 million people.)So the compromise was to give all Americans the option of buying into a "Medicare-like plan" that competed with private insurers. Who could be against freedom of…

  • The Great Disconnect Between Stocks and Jobs

    Robert Reich
    18 Nov 2009 | 7:42 am
    How can the stock market hit new highs at the same time unemployment is hitting new highs? Simple. The market is up because corporate earnings are up. Corporate earnings are up because companies are cutting costs. And the biggest single cost they’re cutting is their payrolls. So they let people go and, presto, their balance sheets look better and their stock prices rise.In the old-fashioned kind of recession decades ago, big companies laid off people with the expectation of rehiring them when the economy turned up. Then a few recessions back, companies started laying off people for good,…

  • Obama, China, and Wishful Thinking About American Jobs

    Robert Reich
    17 Nov 2009 | 7:17 am
    President Obama says he wants to "rebalance" the economic relationship between China and the U.S. as part of his plan to restart the American jobs machine. "We cannot go back," he said in September, "to an era where the Chinese . . . just are selling everything to us, we're taking out a bunch of credit-card debt or home equity loans, but we're not selling anything to them." He hopes that hundreds of millions of Chinese consumers will make up for the inability of American consumers to return to debt-binge spending.This is wishful thinking. True, the Chinese market is huge and growing fast. By…

  • An Open Letter to Harry Reid on Controlling Health Care Costs

    Robert Reich
    13 Nov 2009 | 6:16 am
    Dear Senator,I know you're in a tough spot. It would be bad enough if you only had to get Ben Nelson, Evan Bayh, Mary Landrieu, and Blanche Lincoln on board, but anyone who has to kiss Joe Lieberman's derriere deserves a congressional medal of honor. But Harry, you really need to take on future health-care costs. The House bill fails to do this. The public option in the House bill is open only to people without employer-provided health insurance. That will be too small a number to have bargaining clout to get good deals from drug companies and medical providers. And it will mainly attract…

  • How Obama Can Convince Congress to Enact a Larger Stimulus, and Why He Must

    Robert Reich
    3 Nov 2009 | 4:49 pm
    The Administration's biggest economic mistake so far was to badly underestimate last January how bad the employment situation would become by Fall. As a result, it low-balled the stimulus -- settling for a plan that, while avoiding even worse job losses, didn't go nearly far enough. Obama has to return to Congress, seeking a larger stimulus. Yes, I know. We're already in the gravitational pull of the midterm elections (look at the bizarre attention given to gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, and even to a congressional election in the 23rd district of New York, as supposed…
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    Grasping Reality With Both Hands

  • Look at the Laptops...

    Brad DeLong
    20 Nov 2009 | 3:03 pm
    Microsoft runs a Windows Mobile event: Windows Phone Thoughts: Mobius 2009: Fascinating, But Little That Can Be Shared: Not quite you expect to see at Redmond, is it?

  • Naughty, Naughty, Peter Orszag...

    Brad DeLong
    20 Nov 2009 | 2:41 pm
    Peter Orszag writes: STATEMENT OF ADMINISTRATION POLICY: H.R. 3961 — Medicare Physician Payment Reform Act of 2009 (Rep. Dingell, D-Michigan, and 6 cosponsors): The Administration strongly supports House passage of H.R. 3961, the Medicare Physician Payment Reform Act of 2009, and appreciates congressional efforts to ensure that Medicare beneficiaries and TRICARE patients continue to have access to care and their physician of choice. In his FY 2010 Budget, the President recognized the need for comprehensive reform for the Medicare physician payment system. The Administration believes…

  • The Financial Times Has Nine Times the Quality of U.S. Newspapers

    Brad DeLong
    20 Nov 2009 | 2:30 pm
    So says John Judis. He does, however, tell one thing that I think is a lie: that the New York Times and the Washington Post "have their strengths in foreign news." In my opinion, the two of them together don't have "strengths." Rather, they collectively have one strength: Anthony Shadeed. Otherwise--well, what's new to me in them has a less than 50-50 chance of being true, and what's true in them has a less than 50-50 chance of being news to me. But the rest of it is good. John Judis: Obama In Seoul: My Problem With Foreign News: [T]his morning... I tried to read the stories about Barack…

  • The Puzzles of American Political Economy Today

    Brad DeLong
    20 Nov 2009 | 10:17 am
    Three points to serve as background: First of all, from the day after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the policies followed by the U.S. Treasury and the U.S. Federal Reserve and the U.S. administrations have been very helpful. They have been good ones. The alternative--standing back and watching the markets deal with the situation--would have gotten us a much higher unemployment rate than we have now. Credit easing by the Fed and support of the banking system by the Fed and the Treasury have significantly helped the economy: have kept things from getting much worse. Second, the fact that…

  • What the U.S. Long Bond Market Is Telling Us...

    Brad DeLong
    20 Nov 2009 | 10:02 am
    Paul Krugman reads the tea leaves in what looks like the best piece of economic analysis I have read this month. When we do the things we do well, this is the kind of thing we do: Interest rates: the phantom menace: From various bat squeaks I’ve put together a view of what I think lies behind the surprising — and damaging — deficit squeamishness of the Obama administration. So here’s what I think they’re thinking.... On the face of it, there’s no reason to be worried about interest rates on US debt. Despite large deficits, the Federal government is able to…
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    cool global BIZ

  • Carlos Ghosn, global CEO of Renault-Nissan Alliance, and the future of all-electric cars

    Edward Iwata
    16 Nov 2009 | 2:05 pm
    "Nissan Leaf" by exoduz, under a Creative Commons license on flickr.com. LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA, U.S.A. -- The future of the global auto industry may have finally arrived.  Let's hope so, as film shots of melting glaciers keep re-playing in our heads.  Japanese automaker Nissan recently launched the Leaf, its jazzy new all-electric car, at baseball's Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, the first city in a 22-city tour of the U.S.A. and Canada.  The new car is a part of Nissan's herculean goal to make affordable, all-electric vehicles for the global…

  • Disney and Shanghai: A New Global Brand Icon & Business Partnership

    Edward Iwata
    4 Nov 2009 | 2:56 pm
    "Admiring Shanghai from the Bund" by Stuck in Customs, under a Creative Commons license on flickr.com. In the popular mindset of globe-trotting consumers, a new Disneyland-style theme park in Shanghai will be hard to top as a business/vacation destination.  Disney, of course, has been an iconic corporate brand and pop culture symbol for much of the last century, and Shanghai will be one of the great megacities of the new century.  This business fusion of cross-border media and entertainment will be fascinating to watch evolve in the coming years.

  • Michael Jackson: Media Freak Show, or Global & Cultural Revolutionary?

    Edward Iwata
    28 Oct 2009 | 10:42 am
    Note:  This post on Michael Jackson's death, plus another post on the superstar's global brand, ran originally in July.  The Michael Jackson documentary, "This Is It," premiers today.  Interesting Time magazine story below on Sony's global marketing of the film. Sony forked over $60 million for the rights to the movie, according to the Los Angeles Times Los Angeles Times, "Michael Jackson Should Have Been There." MTV Music Television, "Michael Jackson's 'This is It': The Reviews Are In." Bloomberg…

  • Western Union's Global Branding Campaign Says Yes! Si! हाँ! Oo! 唉! to Immigrant Consumers

    Edward Iwata
    28 Oct 2009 | 10:14 am
    Western Union and Publicis Hong Kong's "Yes!" global brand campaign. PHOENIX, ARIZONA, U.S.A. -- During the frontier era of the American West in the 1800s, Western Union helped pioneers send telegrams to their loved ones many miles away by train or horse.  Today, the money-transfer corporation in Colorado sends billions of dollars in "remittances" from immigrants on all continents to their loved ones around the world.  "The multicultural consumer is front and center," says Gail Galuppo, chief marketing officer at Western…

  • Global Rapper, Entrepreneur & Tech Evangelist MC Hammer: "Music is a Global Language"

    Edward Iwata
    12 Oct 2009 | 12:08 pm
    MC Hammer speaks on global and Web 2.0 branding at an ANA Multicultural Marketing & Diversity conference in Phoenix, Arizona, U.S.A., at the Arizona Biltmore (10-5-09).   PHOENIX, ARIZONA, U.S.A. -- HammerTime is in real time, and still legit.  If you don't follow tech news, you might not know that rapper MC Hammer is a serious social-media evangelist and Twitter freak (over 1 million followers at twitter.com/mchammer) who rivals actor Ashton Kutcher for digital savvy.  Hammer hangs with legendary Silicon Valley entrepreneurs and…
 
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    Calculated Risk

  • Jim the Realtor: Trustee Sale

    CalculatedRisk
    20 Nov 2009 | 9:30 pm
    Jim is featuring a few trustee sale opportunities recently ... the total loan on this one is about $650,000 and the opening bid is $331,500 for a 2100 sq ft house on over 4 acres in a remote area of San Diego:

  • Unofficial Problem Bank List Increases to 513

    CalculatedRisk
    20 Nov 2009 | 6:03 pm
    This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Changes and comments from surferdude808: The Unofficial Problem Bank List increased by a net six institutions to 513 while aggregate assets declined to $302.3 billion from $304 billion. There were 12 institutions added to the list with an average asset size of $194 million. The largest among the new faces include Modern Bank, National Association, New York, NY ($601 million); Eagle National Bank, Upper Darby, PA ($284 million), and The First National Bank of Wynne, Wynne, AR ($275 million). The OCC issued a Prompt…

  • Bank Failure #124 in 2009: Commerce Bank of Southwest Florida, Fort Myers, Florida

    CalculatedRisk
    20 Nov 2009 | 2:04 pm
    Turkey on table Carved up by the Central Bank MMMM Commerce Bank, Yum!by Soylent Green is PeopleFrom the FDIC: Central Bank, Stillwater, Minnesota, Assumes All of the Deposits of Commerce Bank of Southwest Florida, Fort Myers, FloridaCommerce Bank of Southwest Florida, Fort Myers, Florida, was closed today by the Florida Office of Financial Regulation, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...As of August 28, 2009, Commerce Bank of Southwest Florida had total assets of $79.7 million and total deposits of approximately $76.7 million. ...The FDIC…

  • Moody's: CRE Prices Off 43% from Peak

    CalculatedRisk
    20 Nov 2009 | 11:47 am
    From Globe St.: Values Off 43% From 2007 Peak Prices nationwide have fallen 42.9% from their October 2007 peak, according to the latest Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index report issued Thursday, while Real Capital Analytics says total transaction volume for 2009 will be the lowest of the decade. The November Moody’s/REAL report ... covers transactions through Sept. 30 ... September’s index represented a 3.9% value decline compared to August...."Further price declines are almost certain over the short term," says Nick Levidy, Moody’s managing director, in a statement.

  • National Survey: Data on Home Buying Financing

    CalculatedRisk
    20 Nov 2009 | 10:43 am
    Here is some national data on home buyer financing in October. This is from a survey by Campbell Communications (excerpted with permission) released today.Source: October Trends in Existing Home Sales, a presentation from Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance Monthly Survey on Real Estate Market Conditions.Thomas Popik, Campbell Surveys Research Director, highlighted several key trends from the survey in October: Investor Purchases of REO Are Declining First-Time Homebuyers Largely Support the Market First-Time Homebuyers Dependent on FHA Financing If FHA Guidelines Get Tougher, Look for Large…
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    Wall St Examiner: Winter (Economic & Market) Watch

  • The Ultimate Silly Season

    Winter Watch
    20 Nov 2009 | 6:34 am
    In the ultimate indicator of a massive US Treasury Bubble yesterday’s short term bill auction went off at a zero interest rate and then traded slightly negative. If you are involved in any bank or institution engaged in this kind of transaction, fire them immediately and question their fiduciary responsibility.   This was silly season enough [...]View the full article

  • Looking for Cracks

    Winter Watch
    19 Nov 2009 | 1:52 am
    Treasury has a cash call of $99 billion on Nov. 30 that might be another factor in cracking the market.  In the short run per Lee Adler there is about a $21 billion paydown this week. The Fed has not been in the Treasury market with OMO since October 29. Indeed total Fed credit has [...]View the full article

  • Timing a Waterfall

    Winter Watch
    17 Nov 2009 | 2:23 am
    The market has been  interrupting each upward move with slight pull backs and averts the kind of seriously overbought readings that I would look for to enter trades. This morning, the MO is in at +105, but early futures indicate another small dip is in store, which will take the pressure off of this reading.  [...]View the full article

  • The Distortion Trade: Part I

    Winter Watch
    14 Nov 2009 | 4:24 am
    The Treasury deficit for October checked in at $176 billion. The number was a function of $312 billion in outlays and just $135 billion in receipts, an 18% decline YoY, and also the weakest reading for the month of October since 2002. The $176 billion deficit represents a new downward inflection point [...]View the full article

  • Market Manipulation!

    russwinter
    12 Nov 2009 | 3:39 am
    Mike Reiss wrote a piece describing how market manipulations work, in this case in the metals market. He uses the example of Sumitomo. The basic idea of this can easily be extended to other markets as well, including I believe stock market indexes and currencies. In fact, if one has the firepower, numerous markets can [...]
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    Crooked Timber

  • Consequentialism, compassion and confidence

    John Quiggin
    20 Nov 2009 | 8:56 pm
    I’m finally collecting my thoughts in response to Chris’ post on Consequentialism and Communism, particularly this remark imputing to consequentialists in general the very same disregard for, or scepticism about, the rights of individuals, the same willingness to sacrifice individual lives for valuable goals that characterized the Bolsheviks and their successors. As regards willingness to sacrifice individual lives for valuable goals, I think this is an unfair criticism of consequentialists. Look at any of the standard anti-consequentialist philosophical examples – trolley…

  • European Politics Update

    Henry
    20 Nov 2009 | 2:25 pm
    So as Ingrid notes, EU member states have chosen Von Rompuy as the new President of the European Council. To use the terms that Euro-politicians have themselves been using (which were nicked, presumably by Brian Cowen, from the title of a political science text on Irish Taoisigh), they have decided to go for a chairman – someone with a low international profile who is good at conciliating warring factions – rather than a chief. I have no doubt that Von Rompuy will do very good work, but he surely will not be a colossus bestriding the world stage, banging the heads of Sarkozy,…

  • Truth and Method

    Scott McLemee
    20 Nov 2009 | 11:57 am
    To judge by an Associated Press report, the field of Oprah Studies will soon become a historical discipline. It’s been a while since I checked out the work in the field—almost four years: I’ve now spent more time reading the literature than I ever have watching the show. Some of it has been very instructive. There was, for example, a journal article from a few years ago complaining that other scholars had not grasped Oprah’s postmodernity because they had failed to draw on Mikhail Bakhtin’s work on dialogism. What important results follow from applying Bakhtin?

  • Whether or not it is good for Europe, it is very bad for Belgium

    Ingrid Robeyns
    19 Nov 2009 | 12:40 pm
    So the news is spreading that the Belgian PM, Herman Van Rompuy, would be the first president of the EU. I am not going to comment on what that means for the EU now. It’s after nine in the evening here, and I’m preparing my teaching for tomorrow morning (and for reasons I need not disclose in this post, I need my time to prepare). But despite time shortage, one thing I am happy to throw in cyberspace is a prediction that this will not be good for Belgium. Not a very hard-to-make prediction indeed. In the last years I’ve blogged here, once in a while, on the political…

  • Bookblogging: What next for macroeconomics ?

    John Quiggin
    19 Nov 2009 | 12:27 pm
    It’s been slow going, but I’ve finally finished the draft chapter of my book-in-progress that looks forward to a new research program for macroeconomics, an absurdly ambitious task, but one that needs to be tackled. Of course, what I’ve written isn’t fundamentally new – it’s a distillation of points that Old Keynesians, post-Keynesians and some behavioral economists have been putting forward for a while. But I hope I’ve got some positive contribution to make. More than ever, comments are much appreciated. Update In response to comments, I’ve…
 
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    Dealbreaker

  • Write-Offs: 11.20.09

    20 Nov 2009 | 2:22 pm
    Morgan Stanley's $9,000,000,000.00 Check. [Andrew Ross Sorkin] The Media Is Wrong About Goldman Sachs, AIG [The Atlantic] Steel Wins Dismissal Of Icahn Bid To Block Restructuring [FINalternatives] Felix Salmon and Henry Blodget Have a Fight, Make Up [Daily Intel] Morgan Stanley - Goldman Sachs - Andrew Ross Sorkin - American International Group - United States

  • Goldman Employees To Take Out The Trash

    20 Nov 2009 | 1:52 pm
    Alright people. This is it. If the sight of Goldman Sachs employees voluntarily handling garbage doesn't stop the hate, they're going to have to go to DEFCON 1: blow job booth, manned by Blankfein. The Salvation Army plans to serve 10,000 free dinners across the city this Thanksgiving -- meals planned by a star chef, cooked by one of New York's ritziest caterers and cleaned up by employees of one of Wall Street's most vilified financial firms. The number of meals is 10 times as many as last year and come at a time when more and more Americans are struggling to put food on the table. Three…

  • Paris Hilton And Traders4Kids

    20 Nov 2009 | 1:45 pm
    Partying it up at the Palm's Hugh Hefner Sky Villa with ex-Tudor Jones trader Mark Fisher didn't take away from Dr. J's ability to make $15,000 in three hours, for a program that teaches disadvantage kids to someday have trading prowess like The King. If you missed the chance to donate some of your gains on drug stocks ($MRK or $PFE) today, no worries, there's still time to help create the next mini-me Fast Money crew here. And if for some reason if you still need more motivation to give (around $26k has been donated so far but we're counting on you to make it more)- we're told Paris Hilton…

  • John Goff Is Pinching Himself

    20 Nov 2009 | 1:31 pm
    To: Morgan Stanley From: John Goff RE: Thanks a billion OK, OK, thanks $951 million. It was really great to have you take this albatross off my hands a couple of years ago. The timing could not have been better for me. And now, after your outstanding stewardship, I'm pleased to retake the helm at Crescent Real Estate Equities Co. now. Two-and-a-half years sitting by the pool, counting your my $6.5 billion is enough. My new partners at Barclays want to thank you as well. They've proven pretty savvy over the last couple of years, but even they couldn't have imagined how well this would turn out…

  • Break Yourself Off A Piece Of Pre-Thanksgiving Shia LaBeouf

    20 Nov 2009 | 1:15 pm
    So I was getting a haircut after lunch today (York Barbershop, 71st and Lex), and Oliver Stone & co. walked in to inspect the place. According to my barber, they're shooting MNS there, presumably all day, on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. However, I overheard murmurs that it might be too cramped, in which case the Waldorf barbershop would be a contender. No word on how this affects Shia's helmet hair. OliverStone - Shia LaBeouf - Wall Street - Michael Douglas - Arts
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    Econbrowser

  • China, the Renminbi, and Global Imbalances: A Quantitative View

    Menzie Chinn
    19 Nov 2009 | 8:45 pm
    President Obama's trip to China has returned to scrutiny the role of China's currency and macroeconomic policies in perpetuating global imbalances. [0] [1] [2] Figure 1: Log real value of RMB (blue, left axis), and Chinese trade balance in billions USD at annual rates (red, right axis) from Chinese statistical sources, and twelve month trailing moving average (maroon). Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics, ADB, NBER and author's calculations. Various observers have continued to ascribe a central role to real RMB appreciation to effect global rebalancing. I think it's useful to…

  • GDP: Revisions and Forecasts

    Menzie Chinn
    19 Nov 2009 | 5:41 pm
    There's been some discussion of how the GDP estimates for 2009Q3 might be revised downward in light of the September trade release [1]. e-Forecasting has presented its latest estimates up to October, and Macroeconomic Advisers through September. Macroeconomic Advisers writes: ...The increase in September was more than accounted for by a large positive contribution from nonfarm inventories (slower inventory paring in September than August). The level of monthly GDP in September was 0.9% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Average monthly increases of 0.3% per month during the…

  • Receiver operating characteristics curve

    James Hamilton
    18 Nov 2009 | 9:36 am
    Travis Berge and Oscar Jorda of the University of California, Davis have an interesting new paper on statistical criteria for distinguishing economic expansions from recessions. Berge and Jorda evaluate rules of the form that would declare the economy to be in a recession when some indicator Yt falls below a specified threshold c, for example, saying that the economy is in a recession whenever GDP growth comes in below -0.6%. For any choice of the threshold c, there is some observed fraction of observations for which the economy wasn't in a recession and yet Yt was less than c (the false…

  • Assessing the Impact of Government Policy on Widget Consumption and Widget Sector Capital Usage

    Menzie Chinn
    16 Nov 2009 | 2:50 pm
    Let supply and demand for widgets (y) be given by the following two equations, respectively: (1) yt = αt + β x t + ε t (2) yt = γ + δ x t + Γ z t + u t Where x is the relative price of widgets, z is a government procurement policy for widgets, and ε and u are serially uncorrelated mean zero errors, E(ε u) = 0. Note that there is a time varying constant in the supply equation, α t. How would one analyze the impact of a public policy, such as an increase in government procurement of widgets to place in public places, on the total number…

  • The Global Surface Temperature Anomaly

    Menzie Chinn
    16 Nov 2009 | 9:37 am
    From NOAA's National Climate Data Center: larger graph From Temperature Anomaly FAQs: The term "temperature anomaly" means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value. The reference value used to create this graph was the average over the 1901-2000 period.
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    Library of Economics & Liberty: Econlog

  • Are Markets Efficient? Krugman vs. Kling

    Arnold Kling
    20 Nov 2009 | 4:38 pm
    (November 20, 2009 04:38 PM, by Arnold Kling) He says they are: Now, you could and should be worried if this thing looked like a great bubble -- if long-term rates looked unreasonably low given the fundamentals. But do they? Long rates fluctuated between 4.5 and 5 percent...

  • Me on Market Wrap

    David Henderson
    20 Nov 2009 | 2:25 pm
    (November 20, 2009 02:25 PM, by David Henderson) I just completed an interview with Moe Ansari of Market Wrap. We talked about the current recession, the health care bill, and various other things. If you want to listen (I think you'll hear an edited version but they might...

  • From Poverty to Prosperity Watch

    Arnold Kling
    20 Nov 2009 | 8:59 am
    (November 20, 2009 08:59 AM, by Arnold Kling) Josh Lerner writes, Upon Singapore's independence in 1965--three years after Jamaica's own establishment as a nation--the two nations were about equal in wealth: the gross domestic product (in 2006 U.S. dollars) was $2,850 per person in Jamaica, slightly higher than...

  • Dominating the Narrative

    Arnold Kling
    20 Nov 2009 | 8:57 am
    (November 20, 2009 08:57 AM, by Arnold Kling) Will Wilkinson writes, Ygesias says, "I believe that absent the [TARP] bailout, we'd be looking at even higher unemployment today." I think this is a plausible claim. But I don't know of a satisfactory way to evaluate it. It's plausible...

  • Haunted By the Hitler Hypothetical

    Bryan Caplan
    20 Nov 2009 | 12:13 am
    (November 20, 2009 12:13 AM, by Bryan Caplan) When you play with fire, you get burned.  And when you philosophize with hypotheticals involving Nazis, you get misrepresented.  In the Caplan-Hanson debate, I began:Let me begin with a disclaimer: Despite his moral views, Robin is an incredibly nice, decent...
 
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    Economist's View

  • Fed Watch: The Fed in a Corner

    Mark Thoma
    21 Nov 2009 | 1:17 am
    Tim Duy: The Fed in a Corner, by Tim Duy: Over the years, I have warned a seemingly countless number of undergraduates that Fed's hold on monetary independence was tenuous at best. Independence is not guaranteed by the Constitution. Congress made the Fed, and Congress can unmake the Fed. The Fed could only maintain the privilege of independence if policymakers pursued policy paths that fostered maximum, sustainable growth. Deviating from such paths would have consequences. The Fed is quickly learning the extent of those consequences, as Congress launches an assault on the Fed's…

  • links for 2009-11-20

    Mark Thoma
    20 Nov 2009 | 11:02 pm
    Interest rates: the phantom menace - Paul Krugman A big Fed mess - Free exchange Relief for States and Families Boosts Employment - CBPP Stabilities and instabilities in the macroeconomy - voxeu.org Do elections in developing countries improve economic policy? - voxeu.org Tough Bank Amendment Passes With Room Nearly Empty - Ryan Grim Housing back in the news - macroblog Push to Add to Stimulus Package Draws Debate - NYTimes.com Prose Hack - Andy Harless What Geithner Got Right - David Brooks - NYTimes.com Reducing Financial Complexity: A Different Take on Trans. Taxes - EconoSpeak How to do a…

  • What Causes Employment to Lag Output in Recoveries?

    Mark Thoma
    20 Nov 2009 | 1:44 pm
    At MoneyWatch, I attempt to explain why employment lags output in recoveries, and why the lag has been increased after 1990:What Causes Employment to Lag Output in Recoveries?I give three reasons, and then use one of them to try to explain the increased lag since 1990.

  • What’s Wrong With the Dodd Proposal to Restructure the Fed

    Mark Thoma
    20 Nov 2009 | 2:34 am
    At MoneyWatch: What’s Wrong With the Dodd Proposal to Restructure the Fed, by Mark Thoma: A proposal from Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd changes the selection process for key positions within the Federal Reserve system. Unfortunately, this proposal makes the selection process worse, not better. If this proposal is passed into law, it would further concentrate power within the Federal reserve system and politicize the selection process, both of which are the opposite of the where reform should take the system. ...[...continue reading...]...

  • Paul Krugman: The Big Squander

    Mark Thoma
    20 Nov 2009 | 2:07 am
    The economy needs more help from the government, but it's unlikely to get it: The Big Squander, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NYTimes: Earlier this week, the inspector general for the Troubled Asset Relief Program ... released his report on the 2008 rescue of the American International Group... The gist of the report is that government officials made no serious attempt to extract concessions from bankers, even though these bankers received huge benefits from the rescue. And more than money was lost. ... Throughout the financial crisis key officials — most notably Timothy Geithner... —…
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    Library of economics & Liberty: Econtalk

  • Posner on the Financial Crisis

    Russell Roberts
    16 Nov 2009 | 3:30 am
    Richard Posner, federal judge and prolific author, discusses the financial crisis with EconTalk host Russ Roberts. Posner (despite the title of his recent book on the crisis, A Failure of Capitalism) places most of the blame for the crisis on the Federal Reserve, inattentive regulators and the subsidization of risk. He also criticizes economists for complacency in the face of impending disaster. A recent convert of sorts to Keynesianism, Posner confesses some disillusion with the implementation of the stimulus plan and the expanding role of the Federal government. Play Time: 1:03:20 How do I…

  • Sumner on Monetary Policy

    Russell Roberts
    9 Nov 2009 | 3:30 am
    Scott Sumner of Bentley University and the blog The Money Illusion talks with host Russ Roberts about monetary policy and the state of the economy. Sumner argues that tight money in late 2008 precipitated the recession. He argues that the standard measures of monetary policy--growth in reserves or the Federal Funds rate--are misleading. Sumner suggests focusing instead on nominal GDP. He argues that the failure of the Fed to counter the drop in nominal GDP in late 2008 intensified the recession and points to the growth in unemployment. Along the way he discusses the Taylor Rule and other…

  • Heller on Gridlock and the Tragedy of the Anticommons

    Russell Roberts
    2 Nov 2009 | 3:30 am
    Michael Heller of Columbia Law School and author of The Gridlock Economy talks to EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the book and the idea that fragmented ownership is a barrier to innovation. Heller makes an analogy between the tragedy of the commons and what he calls the tragedy of the anticommons--the problem of bundling together numerous individual claims to a resource. Examples discussed include drug innovation when the innovator wants to use technologies of multiple patent holders, new music or visual media where the creator wants to use multiple copyrighted works, and allocation of…

  • Calomiris on the Financial Crisis

    Russell Roberts
    26 Oct 2009 | 3:30 am
    Charles Calomiris of Columbia Business School talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the financial crisis. Calomiris argues that it is important to put the crisis in historical perspective in the context of other bank crises. He argues that bank crises differ widely across time and place--some times and some places are placid, others are prone to regular crises. Calomiris argues that frequent episodes of failure are tied to government guarantees such as various forms of deposit insurance or similar incentives for risk-taking. Looking at the current crisis, Calomiris indicts "too big to…

  • Munger on Shortages, Prices, and Competition

    Russell Roberts
    19 Oct 2009 | 3:30 am
    Mike Munger of Duke University talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the limits of prices and markets, especially in the area of health. They talk about vaccines, organ transplants, the ethics of triage and what role price should play in allocating. The discussion concludes with a discussion of how markets respond to price controls, particularly minimum wages. Play Time: 1:08:00 How do I listen to a podcast? Download Size: 31.2 MB Right-click or Option-click, and select "Save Link/Target As MP3. Readings and Links related to this podcast Podcast Readings HIDE READINGS About this week's…
 
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    EconTech

  • Links for 2009.11.20

    computer.economist
    20 Nov 2009 | 3:31 pm
    The Financial Times Has Nine Times the Quality of U.S. Newspapers: Brad DeLong

  • Links for 2009.11.19

    computer.economist
    19 Nov 2009 | 3:31 pm
    Hatred Holidays: noreply@blogger.com (Piraro)

  • Links for 2009.11.17

    computer.economist
    17 Nov 2009 | 3:30 pm
    Bum Shoulder Need Fixing? | Gooznews

  • Links for 2009.11.16

    computer.economist
    16 Nov 2009 | 3:33 pm
    “It would be as if any discussion of intercontinental navigation required a preliminary discussion of why the evidence shows that the earth is not flat”: Andrew Gelman

  • Links for 2009.11.12

    computer.economist
    12 Nov 2009 | 3:32 pm
    Mark Hughes In Baltimore: Just minutes after I arrived, I was at the scene of a shooting … – Americas, World – The IndependentA Brit comes to Baltimore to see if it like “The Wire”; it is. (HT: Alex Tabarrok) Secret Math of Fly Eyes Could Overhaul Robot Vision: Brandon Keim Desire LinesI have an unending since of guilt after cutting the corner on the quad at Ellis and 58th on the southwest side next to Pick. It was a rainy day, but I was in a rush. A week later, the previously healthy grass was dead in the line I took. I tried steering my friends away from the…
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    Environmental Economics

  • Why students protesting tuition hikes in California are well-intentioned, but misguided

    Tim Haab
    20 Nov 2009 | 11:51 am
    From CNN.com: Students were occupying buildings Friday on several campuses of the University of California system in protest of a 32 percent tuition hike. University officials said the $505 million to be raised by the tuition increases is needed to prevent even deeper cuts than those already made because of California's persistent financial crisis. Protesting students said the hike will hurt working and middle-class students who benefit from state-funded education. While well-intentioned, the students are failing to recognize the simple economics of education.  Students demand…

  • Doesn't this just create a different fishery?

    Tim Haab
    20 Nov 2009 | 9:36 am
    From the Columbus Dispatch: Federal officials say the despised Asian carp may have breached an electronic barrier designed to prevent it from invading the Great Lakes and jeopardizing their $7 billion sport fishery. Officials with the Army Corps of Engineer say Friday that DNA of the giant carp have been found north of the barrier in the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal. If correct, that would mean the carp might reach Lake Michigan if they get through a navigational lock. From there, they could spread throughout the Great Lakes and out-compete native species for food. Asian carp escaped from…

  • I'm going to the SEA meetings!

    John Whitehead
    20 Nov 2009 | 8:05 am
    As Tim previously announced, you'll be able to find me in San Antonio this weekend. Here is the link to my conference schedule. I'll also be attending this great looking session. I'll be presenting our (Tim, Rob, Kurt and John) recreation demand models for marine fishing for the last time, hopefully. We have a website to support this project: http://econ.appstate.edu/marfin. Check it out for the full report, data, programs, presentations and (coming soon) a working paper.

  • Picture of the day

    John Whitehead
    20 Nov 2009 | 6:53 am
    Hat tip: Rich Woodward

  • Where I wasn't last night

    Tim Haab
    20 Nov 2009 | 6:14 am
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    Footnoted

  • Did Semitool CEO have to say goodbye to planes for deal to happen?

    Michelle Leder
    20 Nov 2009 | 8:07 am
    Earlier this week, Applied Materials (AMAT) announced that it was acquiring Semitool (SMTL) in a $364 million all-cash deal. As we’ve footnoted before, Semitool had an interesting side-deal with CEO Ray Thompson that had the company leasing several planes and an aircraft hangar from separate companies owned or controlled by Thompson. Given Semitool’s size, the arrangement, which in 2006 had the company paying Thompson $3.2 million, seemed a tad excessive. Fast forward to yesterday, and this SC 14D-9 filed. Here’s the relevant part: Semitool leases two airplanes and an…

  • Lehman’s bankruptcy slideshow…

    Michelle Leder
    19 Nov 2009 | 8:01 am
    Yesterday, there was a hearing in New York over the Lehman bankruptcy where Lehman CEO Bryan Marsal, who we’ve written about several times over the past year (see here and here). The big headline out of yesterday’s hearing was Marsal’s statement that claims against Lehman could top $1 trillion since the number of claims already top 64,000 and are valued at $824 billion. The other big headline is that a reorganization plan would be in place by the end of March 2010. As part of yesterday’s hearing, Alvarez & Marsal presented this slideshow which was filed as an 8K…

  • The Saga Continues at Boston Scientific Corp.

    Sonya Hubbard
    18 Nov 2009 | 8:56 am
    When we posted on Nov. 12 about the flurry of margin calls at Boston Scientific Corp. (BSX), there was no way to know that the pace of involuntary stock sales would continue. As a historical recap:  Michelle noted in her post last week that company co-founders Peter Nicholas and John Abele sold off over 30 million shares of BSX stock last fall; they sold millions more shares of the stock earlier this year. Fast forward to this month….  Between Nov. 5 and the evening of Nov. 12, Nicholas sold 750,000 shares of company stock involuntarily due to margin calls.  (The sales are documented in…

  • Overstock’s odd filing…

    Michelle Leder
    17 Nov 2009 | 7:54 am
    This morning, a certain sub-sector of the financial blogosphere is abuzz over the press release that Overstock.com (OSTK) put out late yesterday announcing that they had fired its outside auditor, who had just been hired earlier this year, and were filing an “unreviewed” 10-Q. Here’s a snip, which starts with a quote from Friedrich Nietzsche: ll things are subject to interpretation; whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power and not truth.” — Friedrich Nietzsche. Although PwC had given us eight years of fine service, after we filed our 2008…

  • Denbury stretches limits of Powerpoint…

    Michelle Leder
    16 Nov 2009 | 8:11 am
    Earlier this month, Denbury Resources announced that itplanned to buy Encore Acquisition (EAC) in a $4.5 billion deal (according to the press release) or $3.25 billion deal (according to the WSJ). We’re not sure which number is more accurate, but we do know that the Powerpoint presentation that Denbury filed as part of an 8K on Friday, stretches the limits — and no doubt, most people’s patience. We don’t think we’re being overly fussy here, but it just seems that when a Powerpoint starts to approach the size of a 10-Q, there’s something very wrong here.
 
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    NYT: Freakonomics

  • Of God and Money

    By FREAKONOMICS
    20 Nov 2009 | 12:29 pm
    A priest, a minister, and a rabbi walk into an economics lab. Which one is most likely to increase contributions to the public good?

  • A Few Questions for Belle de Jour, Call Girl and Scientist

    By RYAN HAGEN
    20 Nov 2009 | 10:30 am
    In 2003, a young American woman in London studying for her PhD. ran into money trouble. To support herself while writing her thesis, she joined an escort service. Under the assumed name Belle de Jour, she started to blog her experiences. That blog led to a series of successful, jaunty memoirs beginning with 2005's The Intimate Adventures of a London Call Girl. The books were adapted for television in the U.K. (where she is portrayed by Billie Piper) and later in the U.S.

  • Why Do We Hate?

    By FREAKONOMICS
    20 Nov 2009 | 9:21 am
    "What makes hate tick? How can we stop it?" These are the questions that Jim Mohr, director of Gonzaga University's Institute for Action Against Hate, asks himself every day as he develops a new field of study around hate. Mohr believes that despite all the devastating examples of hate in the world, no one really understands why one person hates another.

  • Introducing "Applied Freakonomics"

    By STEVEN D. LEVITT
    20 Nov 2009 | 7:50 am
    When blog reader Kyle contacted us with his story of how thinking "freakonomically" first netted - then lost - him significant amounts of incremental income, we had what we'd call an "aha moment," if Oprah hadn't apparently patented that phrase. Here's Kyle's story - and if you have a tale of "applied Freakonomics," we'd love to hear it, too, and possibly feature it on the blog.

  • When Football Violence Turns Real

    By FREAKONOMICS
    20 Nov 2009 | 6:42 am
    It's well-established that domestic violence is bad for the children directly exposed to it (and possibly their classmates as well) but experts still debate the drivers of family violence. Economists have traditionally characterized violence as a signal to outside parties or as part of an incentive contract between family members.
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    Umair Haque

  • What's Your Strategy for the Next Decade?

    Umair Haque
    17 Nov 2009 | 1:43 pm
    Mirror, mirror, on the wall — who's the fairest of them all? That's the question most economists are asking. Many answer China, a few holdouts contend: America. I'd like to tell you a very different story, that clashes with both orthodoxies. Economic might isn't shifting. It's evaporating. Welcome to the Age of Decline. A new decade's breaking, and in it, people, companies, and countries will have to strategize differently. The story the macroeconomic tea leaves foretell isn't one of power shifting from America to China or anywhere else. It is a story of global economic might everywhere…

  • The Digital Economy's Coming Subprime Crisis (And What You Can Learn From It)

    Umair Haque
    11 Nov 2009 | 12:52 pm
    Are crises predictable? That's what most economists are thinking about these days. The great Hyman Minsky spent a lifetime building a model of macroeconomic crisis, striving to do exactly that. I spent an afternoon building, presented for you here, a tiny model of microeconomic crises: how industries crash and collapse. Our subject? Why media just might be the new Wall Street. Today's media players aren't investing in better ads. They're investing in more — and more toxic — ads. Uh oh: it's the economic equivalent of the subprime crisis. The parallels, to me, are too striking to…

  • Can Google Take on Wall St — and Win?

    Umair Haque
    29 Oct 2009 | 10:46 am
    Dear Google, Eric Schmidt recently said, "CIOs are trapped in a 1980's architecture." Actually, the world is trapped in a 1970's architecture: a financial architecture that was designed for a bygone era, without the prosperity of future generations and the natural world in mind. So here's my challenge to you. The global IT market is worth a few hundred billion bucks. But you're (still) the most innovative company in the world — and there are bigger fisheries to rescue. A better global financial architecture is worth 10x more: at least $12 trillion, if the amount spent on the bailout is…

  • Is Your Business Useless?

    Umair Haque
    27 Oct 2009 | 11:45 am
    These days, lots of people ask me: "Phew! So, the crisis is over, right?" Wrong. The real crisis is in the DNA of the industrial economy — and it's just as lethal as ever. Most businesses are socially useless. They're about as useful to society (to paraphrase Gloria Steinem) as bicycles are to fish. Sound controversial? If it does, it only underscores just how out totally of touch with real value we've gotten. (Here, for example, are Paul Krugman, Simon Johnson, and Lord Turner all discussing social uselessness.) What has socially useless business cost just over the last five years? $12…

  • Why Freakonomics Can't Beat Geekonomics

    Umair Haque
    19 Oct 2009 | 1:12 pm
    Weekend drama: Formula 1, NFL, Sunday talk shows? Forget it: this weekend, the drama was in the econoblogsphere — where the new book SuperFreakonomics inspired a mass freak-out. Freakonomists Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner's chapter on climate change met furious charges of irresponsible journalism and deliberate contrarianism from economists, climate scientists, and journalists alike. I think there's a deeper one. The real problem with the Freakonomics school of thought is this: it's economics 1.0 applied to the entire natural, social, and political world. But what today's world…
 
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    HedgeFundBlogger.com by Richard Wilson

  • Future of Offshore Hedge Funds

    20 Nov 2009 | 10:56 am
    Future of Offshore Hedge Funds Future of Offshore Hedge Funds After the Financial Crisis With a wave of new regulations aimed at the hedge fund industry, it's hard to predict what the state of the industry will be in a couple years.  I found an interesting article discussing specifically the future of offshore hedge funds.  It is likely that the regulation will include not only European or American funds but also cover managers or investors operating offshore, so offshore hedge funds are worrying over the new legislation as much as any other firm. “In the future, offshore funds…

  • SKAR Development Formula by Richard Wilson

    19 Nov 2009 | 11:48 am
    SKAR Development Formula There is a formula that I have used over the past 7 years to help me build my resume, career, and now my own small business, that is the SKAR Formula.  This is not a way to shortcut the hard work it takes to be successful, but rather a map as to where invest your energy to increase the results you get in return for your investment. SKAR Development Formula Specialized Knowledge + Authority positioning + tangible Results = huge growth opportunities and faster development within your career or business. Definitions Specialized Knowledge = Specific knowledge that is…

  • Private Equity Hedge Fund Secondaries

    19 Nov 2009 | 11:18 am
    Hedge Fund Secondary Market Private Equity Looks to Buy Illiquid Hedge Fund Stakes Private equity firms are among the potential investors in the hedge fund secondaries market.  Some hedge fund investors are still worried about liquidity after being stuck with illiquid hedge fund investments during the financial crisis.  Now that the hedge fund industry and markets are recovering, buyout firms and other buyers are looking to purchase stakes in hedge funds.  The hedge fund secondaries market has expanded to several billion dollars a year and there are still a lot of investors…

  • More Free Hedge Fund Resources & Reports: 60,000 Downloads of the Free Hedge Fund Blog Book To Date

    18 Nov 2009 | 4:42 pm
    Free Hedge Fund Resources We gave away around 10,000 copies of our e-book before we started tracking the downloads, and since tracking started we have had 60,000 downloads of the Hedge Fund Blog Book. The book has served its first purpose, to land a book deal with Wiley to write a "real" book on hedge funds.  As I complete that project we are gearing up to completely re-do and expand this free e-book resource.  The next version will have decided sections to capital raising, starting a fund, growing a career in the industry, etc. Since we know another 60,000 professionals will…

  • What should very quickly growing hedge funds of $100M+ invest their money in as they grow?

    18 Nov 2009 | 10:47 am
    $100M Hedge Fund Investments Many of the hedge funds who contact us with over $100M in assets are looking to re-invest, protect and continue their growth. Last week I completed an interview with Lance Baraker and William Katts from TradeStation Prime Services on where large funds should be re-investing their money. The full interview will be published within my upcoming book on hedge funds but here in an excerpt now: "This may be over simplified but the what is most important to a hedge fund as they grow is investing in talent. This is extremely important when implementing systems. Goods…
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    the economist: free exchange

  • Wayward on their carry concern?

    Economist.com | WASHINGTON
    20 Nov 2009 | 11:12 am
    MY WORKING theory of the Obama administration's recent deficit tough talk has been that the powers that be believe any new, deficit-funded stimulative measure would be impossible to get through Congress without some nod toward reining in the growing debt. Paul Krugman seems to have been hearing some things from people who know, and he says that's not it. The administration is worried about something else, and the deficit concern is real:[W]hat I hear is that officials don’t trust the demand for long-term government debt, because they see it as driven by a “carry…

  • A big Fed mess

    Economist.com | WASHINGTON
    20 Nov 2009 | 7:49 am
    ALAN BLINDER opens a new Washington Post column with what I believe is the conventional wisdom:The Federal Reserve's performance in this long-running financial and economic crisis deserves separate grades. For the early crisis period, from the summer of 2007 until a few weeks after the Lehman Brothers failure in mid-September 2008, the Fed's response was uneven. I would question several decisions. But the Fed deserves extremely high marks for its work since then. It has hit the bull's-eye regularly under very trying circumstances.In academia and in the financial markets, the…

  • Quote of the day

    Economist.com | WASHINGTON
    20 Nov 2009 | 6:57 am
    WHEN last we checked in on Bill Gross, he was writing about, um, death, before telling us all that assets have way over-performed over the past 50 years. In his latest missive, by contrast, Mr Gross is merely rewriting history:My point is to recognize, and to hope that you recognize, that an effective zero percent interest rate, as a price for hiding in a foxhole, is prohibitive. Like the American doughboys near France’s Maginot line in WWII – slumping day after day in a muddy, rat-infested pit – when the battalion commander finally blew his whistle to charge the enemy…

  • Beyond the peg

    Economist.com | WASHINGTON
    20 Nov 2009 | 6:35 am
    IN JUST about any analysis of the persistent trade imbalance between China and America, China's currency policy is sure to feature as the principle villain. By pegging its currency to the dollar, China prevents dollar depreciation from playing its natural role in facilitating current account adjustments, making Chinese goods more expensive in America (and elsewhere) such that Americans import less and export more.But how much of the yawning trade gap can be attributed to currency manipulation. A new paper (PDF) by Yin-Wong Cheung, Econbrower's Menzie Chinn, and Eiji Fujii argues…

  • Did the president save the auto industry?

    Economist.com | WASHINGTON
    20 Nov 2009 | 5:58 am
    EARLIER this week, I pointed to a surprising increase in vehicle prices in the Consumer Price Index and noted that the rise seemed to be due to Cash for Clunkers, which depleted vehicle inventories. Prices were up because there were fewer cars on lots.The New York Times' Floyd Norris has a different explanation—prices have risen because the auto industry bail-out was a smashing success:Evidence of what is going on came this week in the consumer price figures for October. The index for new autos was up 1.6 percent for the month, and 3.8 percent for the last 12 months. It has been…
 
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    Global Economy Matters

  • Just How Much Of A Eurozone Rebound Really Was There In Q3?

    Edward Hugh
    15 Nov 2009 | 3:59 pm
    by Edward Hugh: BarcelonaSorry, and I apologise in advance: in this post I'm going to be a nit-picker. The question in hand is the Eurozone third quarter growth one, and the story is all about differences (between countries) and these differences in the key cases (France and Germany) are in many ways all about inventories. So maybe I should have titled the post "all about inventories", following Pedro Almodovar's cinematographic lead in cycling and recycling that old "all about Eve" metaphor - necessity is the mother of invention, and movements in inventories are progenitors of both growth,…

  • The Dollar As A Funding Currency

    Edward Hugh
    5 Nov 2009 | 3:13 pm
    by Edward Hugh: BarcelonaNouriel Robini is not a man who is known for mincing his words. “We have the mother of all carry trades,” he tells us, “Everybody’s playing the same game and this game is becoming dangerous.” There is a “wall of liquidity” sweeping the planet, pushing asset prices ever higher in one country after another. I wholeheartedly agree.Investors across the globe are taking advantage of the ultra low interest rates on offer at the US Federal Reserve to borrow in dollars in order to buy assets like government debt, equities and commodities, in the process, as…

  • Too Much of a Good Thing in Australia?

    CV
    4 Nov 2009 | 2:30 pm
    By Claus Vistesen: Copenhagen(click on pictures for better viewing) It is indeed an old adage that while goods things are to be preferred over bad things it is possible to get too much of the former. Looking at recent comments from the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia it is not difficult to imagine how these, albeit old and worn, pearls of wisdom may well have inspired Mr. Stevens in his effort to tiptoe the thigthrope between signalling the intention to raise rates into an expected economic recovery on the one side and trying to prevent the Aussie shoot of on helium into the sun…

  • Norwegian Wood

    Edward Hugh
    3 Nov 2009 | 2:22 pm
    by Edward Hugh: BarcelonaWell, if John Lennon had still been around today he would undoubtedly have entitled his song Norwegian oil, but whatever way you want to put it Norway is back in the news, and this time not because of adolescents who find themselves with no alternative to sleeping overnight in the bath-tub, but rather because its central bank has been put in a position where it has little alternative but to raise interest rates, even if in fact it would be more comfortable for it not to do so. So, not being in the habit of looking for a quiet life, decision makers over at the Norges…

  • Global Manufacturing, France Outperforms, As Spain Continues To Flounder

    Edward Hugh
    3 Nov 2009 | 6:15 am
    by Edward Hugh: BarcelonaWell, it is not as if I relish rubbing salt into old wounds, but this quote from the latest piece by Ben Hall in Paris and Ralph Atkins in today's Financial Times is just too good to resist.French manufacturing output rose at its fastest rate for nine years, according to a survey on Monday, confirming that France has become the economic powerhouse of continental Europe. Purchasing managers’ indices for manufacturing showed France performing significantly better than the continent’s other main economies – thanks to robust domestic demand.Plenty of food for…
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    Greg Mankiw's Blog

  • What makes a nation rich?

    Greg Mankiw
    20 Nov 2009 | 5:10 am
    The answer from MIT economist Daron Acemoglu.

  • Laibson in Ec 10

    Greg Mankiw
    20 Nov 2009 | 2:51 am
    Every year, one of the most popular guest speakers in ec 10 is David Laibson, who gives students a clear and compelling introduction to behavioral economics. David is giving that lecture today at noon in Sanders Theater. If any other Harvard students want to attend, feel free. (If any other local blog readers want to join us, email me; we can accommodate a few others.)

  • Take Out Your Pencils 2

    Greg Mankiw
    19 Nov 2009 | 1:04 am
    Readers seemed to enjoy my recent post of an introductory economics problem. Here is a new one for you. (I won't post the answer, so instructors can assign the problem as homework.) This one is in honor of Professor Pigou.The town of Wiknam has 5 residents whose only activity is producing and consuming fish. They produce fish in two ways. Each person who works on a fish farm raises 2 fish per day. Each person who goes fishing in the town lake catches X fish per day. X depends on N, the number of residents fishing in the lake. In particular,X = 6 – N.Each resident is attracted to the job…

  • Happy Birthday, Professor Pigou

    Greg Mankiw
    18 Nov 2009 | 5:27 pm
    Arthur Cecil Pigou was born 132 years ago today.

  • Flier on Healthcare Reform

    Greg Mankiw
    17 Nov 2009 | 5:42 pm
    Jeffrey Flier, the Dean of Harvard Medical School, opines on pending healthcare reforms.
 
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    Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up

  • Shoot the Messenger! Or at Least Get the SEC to Investigate Him!

    Jeff Matthews
    20 Nov 2009 | 5:17 am
    “When all else fails we can whip the horses’ eyes,And make them sleepAnd cry.”—“The Soft Parade,” The DoorsOkay so we’re not exactly sure what Jim Morrison’s “Soft Parade” lyrics have to do with the central message of today’s virtual column—except that the dead poet’s gloomy words came immediately to mind while reading what we here at NotMakingThisUp believe is the single most important story in today’s Wall Street Journal.The story is titled “A Tough ‘Sell’ for Jefferies Analyst,” and reporter David Armstrong starts it off thusly:Jefferies & Co.

  • REALLY Grumpy Analyst Syndrome

    Jeff Matthews
    17 Nov 2009 | 5:05 am
    In “Grumpy Analyst Syndrome, or, ‘Optimistic, How Dare He!’” from August 31, we noted the uncanny tendency of Wall Street’s Finest—of which we were one, once—to throw in the towel on their favorite stocks at precisely the end of whatever bear market has caused those stocks to collapse.This makes WSF look doubly-dumb: first for stubbornly keeping “Buy” ratings on stocks that collapse, and then for stubbornly keeping “Sell” ratings on those same stocks as they begin to recover.As we pointed out, Grumpy Analysts often take out their ensuing frustrations on earnings…

  • Why Buffett Finished Off Burlington: It’s the Inventories, Stupid

    Jeff Matthews
    10 Nov 2009 | 1:22 pm
    Well, what the heck: why not use a great line, slightly altered, to make a point?The point being that what Pink Floyd once called “what the fighting’s all about” (at least as far as capital markets go) is not, strictly speaking, the economy.Sure, everybody has an opinion on whether we’re going to have a V-shaped, U-shaped, W-shaped or L-shaped recovery (what happens in China: do they have sinographic recoveries?).Even my dog Charles has an opinion: he thinks it’s going to be shaped like his giant plastic red dog bone. But the issue that will determine the near-term course of the…

  • Anatomy of a Murder…on Wall Street

    Jeff Matthews
    6 Nov 2009 | 4:45 am
    There are a lot of ways to describe a stock that goes down a lot in a brief period of time. These include “tanked,” “dived,” “collapsed,” “got crushed,” “got smoked,” “got murdered,” and many others—including some unprintable adjectives we’ll leave to the imagination. Yesterday, shares of CVS Caremark did all of those things and more, after the company disclosed bad news in the form of contract losses in its not-long-ago-acquired Caremark pharmacy benefit management business. What made matters worse was the way in which CVS management announced its problems. In a…

  • What Jim Himes is Thinking Right Now

    Jeff Matthews
    5 Nov 2009 | 5:42 am
    Democrats Confront Coalition StrainsElections this week left Democrats scrambling to renew the coalition that elected President Barack Obama after independent voters, whose power to determine U.S. elections is rising with their numbers, broke heavily toward Republicans.—The Wall Street Journal, November 5, 2009First, who is Jim Himes, and why does he matter?Himes is a freshman Congressman from the 4th Connecticut district, who defeated a moderate Republican incumbent in last year’s Obama sweep.He is also an ex-Goldman banker—hey, who in Washington isn’t an ex-Goldman banker?—and he…
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    Marginal Revolution

  • Badges? We don't need no stinkin badges.

    Alex Tabarrok
    20 Nov 2009 | 2:14 pm
    In pursuit of an Eagle Scout badge, Kevin Anderson, 17, has toiled for more than 200 hours hours over several weeks to clear a walking path in an east Allentown park.Little did the do-gooder know that his altruistic act would put him in the cross hairs of the city's largest municipal union.Nick Balzano, president of the local Service Employees International Union, told Allentown City Council Tuesday that the union is considering filing a grievance against the city for allowing Anderson to clear a 1,000-foot walking and biking path at Kimmets Lock Park."We'll be looking into the…

  • Assorted links, second dose

    Tyler Cowen
    20 Nov 2009 | 10:11 am
    1. Air Genius Gary Leff is hailed by CNN.2. Good post on interest rates (though I am not sure I agree with it).  Brad DeLong comments.  Critically important stuff and two of the best recent economics blog posts, in some time.3. The world's first native Klingon speaker?4. Spider silk tapestry.5. Via Yana, France's hamster hotel, and here.

  • Markets in everything?

    Tyler Cowen
    20 Nov 2009 | 6:49 am
    A gang in the remote Peruvian jungle has been killing people for their fat, the police said Thursday, accusing the gang’s members of draining fat from bodies and selling it on the black market for use in cosmetics...Three suspects have confessed to killing five people for their fat, said Col. Jorge Mejía, chief of Peru’s anti-kidnapping police. He said the suspects, two of whom were arrested carrying bottles of liquid fat, told the police it was worth $60,000 a gallon.Colonel Mejía said the suspects had told the police that the fat had been sold to intermediaries in Lima, the capital.

  • Assorted links

    Tyler Cowen
    20 Nov 2009 | 4:08 am
    1. How much will U.S. taxes ever go up? 2. Useful lateral thinking and how it is described by the lateral thinker.3. The biological bases of business and entrepreneurship.4. One hour show with me in Second Life; they even did up a Tyler Cowen avatar.  Other shows are here, including economist Robert Frank and libertarian Adam Thierer.5. Matt Kahn on "cash for caulkers".6. The new AEA calendar of economists.  To whet your appetite, here is a photo of Francis Ysidro Edgeworth.

  • *The Unincorporated Man* and slavery

    Tyler Cowen
    20 Nov 2009 | 3:59 am
    As long as we are on the topic of slavery, why not consider fiction?  This science fiction novel has an intriguing economic premise: you're born a slave and you're not free until you can buy yourself back from your owner (which may be a corporation).It may sound funny to think that a slave can save money but arguably an optimal slavery contract in a high-productivity society will give the slave some residual claimancy and some property rights, in order to spur work effort.At some point you wonder whether a slave in this futuristic society is better off buying the rights to…
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    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

  • Time Lapse Unemployment Visualization

    20 Nov 2009 | 4:48 pm
    Inquiring minds are watching The Geography Of A Recession, a time lapse unemployment visualization from the start of the recession until now.Click on the link to play. This is undoubtedly my shortest post ever.Mike "Mish" Shedlockhttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.comClick Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post ListMike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit…

  • Disingenuous Credit Card Whining And Questionable Risk Policies At Citigroup

    20 Nov 2009 | 10:37 am
    Citigroup is whining that new regulations eliminate pricing for risk. So what does it do? Jack up rates is the answer. To lower interest rates, Citi customers must spend more.For Citibank credit card holders, there is one way to escape the bank's rate hikes currently under way: Meet a monthly spending requirement.Those who meet the spending minimum -- in some cases $750 a month -- will be able to get a rebate on their total interest charges for that month. The rebate could cover some or all of the interest rate hike. Customers also need to make payments on time to qualify for the…

  • California Students Protest 32% Tuition Hike; State Budget Gridlock II Coming; Massive Deficits In San Francisco

    20 Nov 2009 | 12:35 am
    Massive fiscal problems confront California once again. Let's start with a look at California students hit with 32% hike in tuition.California undergraduates and their parents just got hit with a 32% increase in tuition by next summer.With hundreds of angry students chanting outside their meeting at UCLA, the California Board of Regents approved the $2,500, two-step fee hike, which will raise the basic tuition at the 10-campus University of California system to $10,300 a year. That's three times what it cost a decade ago. Other fees, books, and room and board adds an additional $16,000.With…

  • Ron Paul, Alan Grayson Audit The Fed Bill Approved In House Finance Committee

    19 Nov 2009 | 10:37 pm
    Chalk up a rare victory for the little guy (and the nation itself). The Bill To Audit Federal Reserve Passes Key HurdleIn an unprecedented defeat for the Federal Reserve, an amendment to audit the multi-trillion dollar institution was approved by the House Finance Committee with an overwhelming and bipartisan 43-26 vote on Thursday afternoon despite harried last-minute lobbying from top Fed officials and the surprise opposition of Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.), who had previously been a supporter.The measure, cosponsored by Reps. Ron Paul (R-Texas) and Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), authorizes the…

  • Bank Regulators "Reign of Terror" on Small Business Loans

    19 Nov 2009 | 12:53 pm
    In response to Freefall In Small Business Loans I received an email from "ABO" the CEO and owner of a bank.ABO, who has been in the banking business 30 years, writes:Mish,I was reading the article you wrote concerning the difficulty of securing small business loans and President Obama promising assistance via the Small Business Administration - SBA.Most small banks run from the SBA. Reasons are many. Suggesting that the SBA is a solution is naive or dishonest. The problem starts with the government and they only make things worse!To your list of reasons as to why banks do not lend I would…
 
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    A Dash of Insight

  • A Profitable Pattern

    Jeff Miller
    20 Nov 2009 | 8:13 pm
    I have noticed a profitable pattern.  I am going to cast this from the bearish perspective, but in theory it could work either way.  I have a few other historical examples, but let us focus on the present.BackgroundInvestors have many time frames, and so do those managing money.  When you see someone interviewed on CNBC it could be a mutual fund manager, a hedge fund manager, or a trader.  It is natural for everyone to talk his book, but the time frame is relevant.A mutual fund manager likes to see holding increase, get publicity, and attract new assets.  Having said this, these managers…

  • Specific Expertise: Insisting on the Best Information

    Jeff Miller
    17 Nov 2009 | 7:55 pm
    Here at "A Dash" we have emphasized that we are all consumers.  We are consumers of data, of analysis, and of opinion.  Our principal mission is helping readers understand their role as consumers and figure out what sources and information to follow.BackgroundHere are two widely-accepted findings to consider.  Both have strong support from empirical evidence on market returns. Stock analyst ratings often lag, so the wise contrarian investor fades the consensus opinion. Chasing performance is a major source of losses.  Those who "called the last move" are often the mean-reverting cases. …

  • ETF Update: Rebound in China?

    Jeff Miller
    15 Nov 2009 | 5:05 pm
    President Obama's China visit will be a news focus for the next few days.  Investors will follow developments closely for hints about trade, the dollar, implications for the U.S. economy, as well as several important challenges to international cooperation.  Because China is the biggest lender to the US, the relationship is changing. This occasion is also a good time to consider the prospects for direct Chinese investments.  We identify such opportunities through our sector rotation model. In our disciplined system, we study sectors continually, looking at the charts and…

  • Dollar Weakness and Stock Market Strength -- the Data

    Jeff Miller
    14 Nov 2009 | 6:17 pm
    Anyone who is following the market on a daily basis is paying attention to the strength of the dollar versus other currencies.  It can be confusing.  While a strong dollar might seem like a good thing, there is actually an inverse market relationship with stocks -- at least in recent times.I described the basics of the dollar debate here:  Understanding the Debate on the Dollar.  There are many opinions -- prescriptive, political, and descriptive.  The next step is to consider some data.Dollar Strength and U.S. Equity Market ReturnsIn my last article I highlighted the inverse…

  • Understanding the Debate on the Dollar

    Jeff Miller
    12 Nov 2009 | 8:08 pm
    A strong dollar seems patriotic.  It is also meaningful to long-term purchasing power.  Weaker dollars mean a higher cost for foreign products, and that is inflationary for the US consumer.This natural impulse is at odds with current equity trading.  A friend asked why the market had 200+ rally in the DJIA on Monday.  My answer -- dollar weakness-- was counter-intuitive and unsatisfying, but accurate.  Dollar's Drop Helps Dow Hit New 2009 High, explained Briefing.com.Today the Dow declined 100 points.  Why?  Many cited dollar strength.Investors and traders alike need to pay attention…
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    PSD Blog - The World Bank Group

  • Weekend Reading

    Brian Hoyt
    20 Nov 2009 | 12:52 pm
    Regulatory failure, special interests, and financial sector lobbying: European Union edition. Negative interest rates on T-bills: This time is different. "The fact that oil is trading at $80 a barrel in this climate should tell you that it is trading more as a financial asset than on supply/demand imbalances". California is doing its part in the fight against deflation, one university at a time. The recession is having quite an impact on migration trends in the United States. Plus, our People Move blog looks at new remittance data. Tyler Cowen describes these two posts from Paul…

  • The Curious Indian Entrepreneur

    Brian Hoyt
    20 Nov 2009 | 8:20 am
    I attended a session from yesterday's Entrepreneurship and Growth Conference on "Indian Entrepreneurial Success in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom". RAND corporation's Krishna B Kumar attempted to explain the extraordinary successes of Indian expatriate entrepreneurs in these three countries, arguing that much can be attributed to observable differences such as education, family ties, and choice of sector. In the United States, the typical Indian entrepreneur has an average business income that is…

  • Today in Capital Controls

    Brian Hoyt
    19 Nov 2009 | 9:12 am
    Yesterday I suggested that emerging market economies, rather than the United States, were better poised to criticize China's currency policy. It looks like, rather than criticizing China's policy, many are simply trying replicate it. Brazil and Taiwan are leading the way: Asian currencies came under pressure on Thursday as a move from Brazil to further curb foreign inflows sparked fears that other countries would follow suit. Brazil moved overnight to close a loophole that had allowed investors to avoid a 2 per cent tax on foreign investment in equities and bonds announced…

  • In search of PSD’s “holy grail”

    Alan Johnson
    19 Nov 2009 | 7:44 am
    The “holy grail” for those working in PSD is the scalable and sustainable business model that engages the poor while delivering social and developmental outcomes. Finding the PSD grail will potentially empower large numbers of poor men and women to find their own way out of poverty as well as generating, on a commercial basis, socially desirable goods and services. But there have been many false trails in the quest for the PSD grail. Among them are supply chain development initiatives that remain external to the economic lives of the poor, and heavily subsidized models…

  • Is the US the appropriate renminbi critic?

    Brian Hoyt
    18 Nov 2009 | 1:23 pm
    Free Exchange has observed over the past few days that the blogosphere, financial press, and political punditry have put forth a plethora of opinions about Chinese economic policy. Let's take a look at some of the latest: Bill Owens argues for closer cooperation in just about everything: The US-China relationship is a vital interest for the two countries and the world. Throughout history, great powers have tended to become adversaries. Now, for a few years, we have a chance to break that cycle. It will take strong and enduring commitment on both sides. But a new and…
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    Seeking Alpha

  • 25 Reasons We Will Not Have a Depression

    20 Nov 2009 | 6:49 pm
    One particularly vitriolic reader of my last article on The Distorted Shape of the Recovering Economy seemed to think I was predicting a doomsday scenario. I was not at all. Richard Duncan’s tentatively predicted Fall of Rome scenario is a true doomsday scenario, not mine.My focus of late has been much more on the need for transparency and candor from our government on TARP I and II and the stimulus program results, as well as, more importantly, on getting the stimulus infrastructure program facilitated, expanded and working much better. The Administration needs to confess errors, fix…

  • The Gap: In Line, But Q4 Might Disappoint

    20 Nov 2009 | 6:43 pm
    Brendan Wagner submits:The Gap (GPS) reported earnings of 44 cents for the fiscal third quarter, right in line with the guidance they updated back on November 5th. They also announced a $500 million stock buyback.Gross margin was up almost 4% versus a year ago thanks to better inventory management and less markdowns. The Street seems to expect fourth quarter gross margin improvement to be as impressive as this quarter's was, butmanagement guidance in the press releasesuggests that they may be a bit more promotional in an attempt to grab market share. If that's the case, actual earnings may…

  • Stock Market Optimists Revisited: This Is Not Your Father's Stock Market

    20 Nov 2009 | 6:29 pm
    Joe Eqcome submits:Having the privilege to have met Sir John Templeton, the founder of The Templeton Funds, I was stuck not only by his crushing intellect but also by his sense of optimism regarding investing. Warren Buffett, a fellow optimist, who upon acquiring Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (BNI) for $26.3 billion said, “It was a bet on America”. Optimistic Investing: Being an unblinking optimist has been a helpful personal affliction for successful investing post-WWII. The S&P 500 is up 65 times since 1950. On a weekly basis it has advanced 56% of the time. Prior to…

  • Synovus: A Beat-Up Bank to Bet On

    20 Nov 2009 | 6:05 pm
    Tom Brown submits: If you want to know which beaten-up bank stocks will provide the most ample returns from here, go back and look at what happened last cycle. Back in 1990, after bank stocks bottomed in November, the charge was led by those banks that still had significant credit quality problems and were still reporting quarterly losses. Then, as the cycle rolled on, the companies steadily managed through their credit issues and eventually returned to normalized profitability—and their stock prices zoomed. Two of my biggest winners back then were Barnett Banks, at that time the…

  • The Problem with Geithner: David Brooks Misses the Point

    20 Nov 2009 | 5:44 pm
    Gary Weiss submits: David Brooks' New York Times op-ed column today on Tim Geithner (mentioning in the lead my Portfolio cover story) misses the point, I think.The problem with Geithner's approach is not whether or not the banks are recovering because of the TARP program, but the degree to which the profits of the biggest banks have not been matched by a commensurate ability to lend.Complete Story »
 
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    Statistical Modeling

  • "Science revolves around the discovery of new cause-effect relationships but the entire statistics literature says almost nothing about how to do this."

    Andrew Gelman
    19 Nov 2009 | 8:13 am
    Seth writes: Is this a fair statement, do you think? Science revolves around the discovery of new cause-effect relationships but the entire statistics literature says almost nothing about how to do this. It's part of an abstract for a talk I [Seth] will give at the ASA conference next July. Haven't submitted the abstract yet so can revise it or leave it out. My reply: This seems reasonable to me. You could clarify that the EDA literature is all about discovery of new relationships but with nothing about causality, while the identification literature is all about causality but nothing about…

  • Senators and health care; also a discussion of pretty statistical graphics

    Andrew Gelman
    19 Nov 2009 | 5:16 am
    Nate, Daniel, and I have an op-ed in the Times today, about senators' positions and state-level opinion on health care. We write: Lawmakers' support for or opposition to reform generally has less to do with the views of their constituents and more to do with the issue of presidential popularity. . . . For instance, Senator Blanche Lincoln, a Democrat who has been a less-than-strong supporter of the present health care bill, recently told The Times, "I am responsible to the people of Arkansas, and that is where I will take my direction." But where does she look for her cue? Hers is a poor…

  • Statfight!

    Andrew Gelman
    19 Nov 2009 | 1:38 am
    Fun stuff.

  • They call me Dear Abby, or, This might at first seem like a pointless tautological exercise, but actually I think it can lead you forward

    Andrew Gelman
    18 Nov 2009 | 12:50 pm
    Daniel Corsi writes: I am a PhD student in epidemiology at McMaster University and I am interested in exploring how characteristics of communities are related to child health in developing countries. I have been using multilevel models to relate physical characteristics of communities such as the number of schools, health clinics, sanitation facilities etc to child height for age and weight for age using observational/survey data. I have several questions with regards to the group (community-level) level predictors in these models. 1. My first question is about interpretation of the…

  • Clearing up some misconceptions about Bayesian statistics

    Andrew Gelman
    18 Nov 2009 | 4:03 am
    I was checking out the comments at my bloggingheads conversation with Eliezer Yudkowsky, and I noticed the following, from commenter bbbeard: My sense is that there is a fundamental sickness at the heart of Bayesianism. Bayes' theorem is an uncontroversial proposition in both frequentist and Bayesian camps, since it can be formulated precisely in terms of event ensembles. However, the fundamental belief of the Bayesian interpretation, that all probabilities are subjective, is problematic -- for its lack of rigor. . . . One of the features of frequentist statistics is the ease of testability.
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    Streetsblog New York City

  • PSAs Rock! Watch the Winners of TA’s “Biking Rules” Video Contest

    Elizabeth Press
    20 Nov 2009 | 1:11 pm
    As you may know, Transportation Alternatives put on a red carpet premiere Tuesday night for the "Biking Rules" PSA competition at the Brooklyn Academy of Music. The contest pitted video entries against each other in two main categories: "Why Biking Rules" and "Street Code."   Videos in the "Street Code" category encourage people to use lights, bells, stop at red lights, ride with traffic and generally ride safely and courteously. "Why Biking Rules" is pretty self-explanatory. Out of some 80 total submissions, about 40 PSAs (and a…

  • Sunday and Monday: Bike Rack Roundup and CB Jammy Jam

    Lily Bernheimer
    20 Nov 2009 | 12:42 pm
    Don't miss back-to-back opportunities to get involved in changing your city over the next few days. On Sunday, compete to find bike parking spots in the FixCity Bike Rack Roundup, a contest to push through the FixCity project's pilot campaign for 300 new racks in Williamsburg and Greenpoint. Even if you don't live in north Brooklyn, you can help get this experiment in participatory transportation planning off the ground and win nifty prizes like a B's Bikes gift basket (pictured) or an NY Transit Museum multi-tool. If you're coming from south Brooklyn or Queens, you can travel with TA's…

  • The Weekly Carnage

    Brad Aaron
    20 Nov 2009 | 12:00 pm
    The Weekly Carnage is a Friday round-up of motor vehicle mayhem across the metro region. For more on the origins and purpose of this column, please read About the Weekly Carnage. The teen driver of this Saturn rear-ended another car, which lurched into 17-year-old Janine Brawer of Staten Island, pinning her beneath. She died from her injuries. Brawer was one of seven city pedestrians killed in the past week. Of the 10 motorists involved, four fled. No charges were reported against those who remained at the scene, while one of the hit-and-run drivers escaped criminal charges for killing an…

  • In Progress: A More Walkable, Bikeable, Trottable Park Circle

    Ben Fried
    20 Nov 2009 | 11:04 am
    A protected bike path will soon wrap around the circumference of Park Circle. Some segments are bi-directional.There's a very nice set of livable streets improvements underway at Park Circle, where Brooklynites heading to and from Prospect Park mix it up with traffic heading to and from the Prospect Expressway, Ocean Parkway, and the Fort Hamilton Parkway. Construction was still in progress when I took these pictures a few days ago, but it's already making a big difference for pedestrians and cyclists. (And, I assume, the equestrians coming from Kensington Stables, although I didn't see…

  • It’s Official: Chicago Parking Privatization a Massive Rip-Off

    John Kaehny
    20 Nov 2009 | 8:34 am
    City parking meters are a gold mine, and in Chicago, Morgan Stanley is rolling in parking riches. Secret company documents leaked to reporters show the company will rake in a 70 percent profit margin this year from its $1.15 billion, 75-year lease of Chicago's parking meters. This profit is on top of the millions Morgan paid to buy new, high-tech meters. The good times will keep on rolling for investors: In 2010, after another meter price hike, Morgan expects to make monthly profits of $4.8 million, roughly 55 percent higher than in 2009. Graphic: New York Times/Chicago News Cooperative.Last…
 
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    The Becker-Posner Blog

  • Will We Go the Way of Japan?--Posner

    Richard Posner
    15 Nov 2009 | 3:41 pm
    Japan spent the 1990s unsuccessfully trying to recover from a collapse of the Japanese banking industry caused by the bursting of a housing bubble, despite aggressive monetary and fiscal policies. As a result of those policies, Japanese national debt soared, but was financed mainly internally because of the very high Japanese personal savings rate. With its large surplus of exports over inputs, moreover, Japan accumulated dollars (and other currencies), which also reduced the debt burden. Interest rates remained very low, in part because of chronic deflation. The low interest rates stimulated…

  • Will We Go the Way of Japan? No, Unless US Government Policies Discourage Growth-Becker

    Gary Becker
    15 Nov 2009 | 2:32 pm
    Japan has had a very slow rate of growth in its GDP since 1991, averaging just a little over 1 percent. Given this slow growth, and the government's continued failed efforts to prop up their economy by running large fiscal deficits, the ratio of government debt to its GDP has risen from only about 50% in 1995 to by far the highest ratio in the developed world, at about 170% in 2008. Estimates indicate that it could rise to over 200% by next year as the budget continues to spill red ink, and may grow even much further during the next decade. Such a large debt ratio has been manageable so far…

  • Productivity and Jobs-Becker

    Gary Becker
    8 Nov 2009 | 6:03 pm
    Last week two pieces of news about the American economy were disclosed, with important implications for where the economy is going. On Thursday, the Labor Department reported that during the third quarter of 2009, productivity jumped at the remarkable annual rate of 9½%. On Friday, the Labor Department also reported that the October unemployment rate in the United States increased to over 10% for the first time in more than 25 years. The productivity numbers were not entirely ignored, but were on the inside pages of the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, and most other newspapers. By…

  • Productivity and Unemployment--Posner

    Richard Posner
    8 Nov 2009 | 5:03 pm
    Becker is certainly right that growth in productivity is an important driver of economic growth. But we must consider the source of the growth in productivity in order to understand the conjunction in the last two quarters of rapidly rising productivity with rapidly rising unemployment. If productivity growth is the result of technological innovation (and "technology" in this context need not be limited to engineering--it could include innovations in management, marketing, inventory control, and so forth), then the effect of greater productivity on economic growth will indeed be positive. But…

  • Fiscal Imprudence, Distributive Injustice: the $250 per Social Security Annuitant Plan--Posner

    Richard Posner
    1 Nov 2009 | 3:53 pm
    In October, the President announced that $13 billion (some commentators believe a more accurate estimate is $14 billion) of the $787 billion stimulus package enacted this past February would be used to pay every social security annuitant $250 in 2010, ostensibly to "compensate" for the fact that there will no cost of living (inflation) increase in social security benefits. The social security COLA for year t is based on the increase in the Consumer Price Index between the end of the third quarter of t - 1 and the end of the third quarter of t -2. (t is 2010, t - 1 2009, and t - 2 2008.) There…
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    The Big Picture

  • Friday Night Jazz iPod’s guilty little pleasures

    Barry Ritholtz
    20 Nov 2009 | 2:00 pm
    I will be incommunicado today, winging my way back from Berlin for 8 und eh heff hours. I wrote this back in 2005, but never published it widely. Enjoy: > What sort of crap do you have lurking hidden on your iPod? That’s the question on an older article I stumbled across from my old e&e blog.  The Arizona Republic asked: “Those saccharine pop tunes and schmaltzy ballads cloaked from friends? There’s no excuse anymore. No blaming it on a CD that had just one song you liked. No claiming it belonged to your wife, husband or friend.You selected each and every tune. Like…

  • From Bear to Bull By Sector

    Michael Panzner
    20 Nov 2009 | 11:02 am
    Most investors know that the S&P 500 hit a record high in October 2007 and a (the?) low in March of this year. But when you break it down by sector, things are a bit more complicated. Otherwise, for those who are wondering whether there is more upside ahead, the fact that four groups — telecom services, financials, energy, and utilities — have not seen new highs this month while the S&P 500 has might be a cause for concern.

  • Site of the Day: Innumeracy.com

    Barry Ritholtz
    20 Nov 2009 | 10:30 am
    > Some good learnin’ here: This web site stems from a personal interest in critical thinking and is a collection of links to articles and sites pertaining to numeracy and critical thinking. Links should be good for at least the date posted. After the posting date, link reliability depends on the policy of the linked sites. Some sites may require registration before allowing access.

  • The ‘Greatest Trade’: How to Make $20 Billion

    Barry Ritholtz
    20 Nov 2009 | 7:30 am
    The WSJ’s Greg Zuckerman has a new book out titled, The Greatest Trade Ever: The Behind-the-Scenes Story of How John Paulson Defied Wall Street and Made Financial History. Here is an excerpt from his recent WSJ column on lessons on the subject: 1 Don’t Rely on the Experts Many investors lost big in 2007 and 2008 as housing crumbled and the stock market tumbled. But no one lost more than commercial and investment banks caught with toxic mortgage-related securities. These bankers were the very same ones who created these investments, and Wall Street’s top analysts had vouched…

  • Deflationary Trend (Temporarily) Masked by Free Lunches

    Barry Ritholtz
    20 Nov 2009 | 7:30 am
    The Quote of the Day comes to us via Bloomberg’s Alice Schroeder: “We’re in the midst of a deflationary trend that is temporarily being masked by inventory restocking and free lunches like Cash for Clunkers. Consumers are done with borrowing. They’ll keep refueling the deflation by going through their attics and garages to find stuff they can sell on Ebay to raise cash.” -Gold Tells You U.S. Bubble Hasn’t Popped Yet
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    The Epicurean Dealmaker

  • Compassion Fatigue

    17 Nov 2009 | 9:40 am
    "No matter how many times you save the world, it always manages to get back in jeopardy again. Sometimes I just want it to stay saved, you know? For a little bit? I feel like the maid: 'I just cleaned up this mess! Can we keep it clean for ... for ten minutes?!'"— The IncrediblesI don't know about you, Dear and Long-Suffering Readers, but I am beginning to worry about Yves Smith.The indefatigable blogger and soon-to-be-published author is really showing the strain of commenting from the front lines of the global financial crisis, as she has done, admirably, from the very beginning.

  • Notes from a Presidential Address I Would Like to Hear

    12 Nov 2009 | 10:40 am
    As delivered from the bully pulpit long ago, in another time and place, which looks a lot like this time and place: Probably the greatest harm done by vast wealth is the harm that we of moderate means do ourselves when we let the vices of envy and hatred enter deep into our own natures. But there is another harm; and it is evident that we should try to do away with that. The great corporations which we have grown to speak of rather loosely as trusts are the creatures of the State, and the State not only has the right to control them, but it is duty bound to control them wherever the need of…

  • Veterans' Day

    11 Nov 2009 | 12:20 pm
    November 11, 2009: What passing-bells for these who die as cattle? —Only the monstrous anger of the guns. Only the stuttering rifles' rapid rattle Can patter out their hasty orisons. No mockeries now for them; no prayers nor bells, Nor any voice of mourning save the choirs,— The shrill, demented choirs of wailing shells; And bugles calling for them from sad shires. What candles may be held to speed them all? Not in the hands of boys, but in their eyes Shall shine the holy glimmers of goodbyes. The pallor of girls' brows shall be their pall; Their flowers the tenderness of patient minds,…

  • Character Study

    2 Nov 2009 | 7:41 pm
    Alfred Pennyworth: "A long time ago, I was in Burma. My friends and I were working for the local government. They were trying to buy the loyalty of tribal leaders by bribing them with precious stones. But their caravans were being raided in a forest north of Rangoon by a bandit. So we went looking for the stones. But in six months, we never found anyone who traded with him. One day I saw a child playing with a ruby the size of a tangerine. The bandit had been throwing them away." Bruce Wayne: "Then why steal them?" Alfred Pennyworth: "Because he thought it was good sport. Because some men…

  • Shock and Awe

    29 Oct 2009 | 9:11 pm
    What the hell did I ever do to piss Steve Randy Waldman off? I tell you honestly, Dear Readers, my afternoon conversation with this genial and intelligent gentleman started unremarkably enough, with a little playful banter in the Twitterverse on this and that. (I called myself a squirrel; he revealed himself to be a slime mold.) But then, something went horribly wrong. After trying to out me with an hurtful photograph of me wearing a hat I haven't owned in years (and an extra 20 pounds I have subsequently shed), he upped his attack on Your Peaceable and Equable Correspondent by trying to pick…
 
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    The price of everything

  • Triumph of the realists, Part II

    timprice
    14 Nov 2009 | 1:14 am
    “HBOS’ share price began to drop last summer when the City became nervous about its reliance on UK mortgages. There were denials that the firm was in crisis, which is always a terrible sign. In September 2008, the Big Four bank Lloyds bought HBOS after its boss, Victor Blank – this is the part you couldn’t make up – bumped into Gordon Brown at a drinks party and got him to give an assurance that a takeover would not be referred to the monopolies commission..   Most of us have had a few drinks at a party and done something embarrassing, usually along the lines of…

  • Indestructible

    timprice
    6 Nov 2009 | 10:42 am
    “Alternative 1: on average there is more than one ownership claim on each gold bar conforming to London Good Delivery.. Essentially, the market operates on a fractional reserve basis.. If it is true, the next phase in the gold bull market will be a religious experience for anyone unfortunate enough to be short of gold.”   -       Paul Mylchreest, ‘Thunder Road Report’, 15th October 2009.   “Expect other nations, including those in the Middle East, to follow the lead of Hong Kong in bullion repatriation. This is a slow-release…

  • The merits of a slowdown

    timprice
    29 Oct 2009 | 11:33 am
    “Cheaper toys ‘are Christmas hits’ ”   -       BBC News website, 28 October 2009.   Stop all the clocks, wrote W.H. Auden once, and he had the right idea. One of the irritations of modern western society is an always-on consumption culture that lives not so much in the here-and-now but in the tomorrow-reported-as-yesterday. Or perhaps, in remembrance of George Orwell, we should allude to his definition of advertising: the rattling of a stick inside a swill bucket. Consumer time, in any case, now moves at an accelerated rate, especially…

  • Rage against the machine

    timprice
    23 Oct 2009 | 10:34 am
      “John Meriwether.. is in the process of setting up a new hedge fund – his third.”   -       The Financial Times.   “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”   -       Popular saying, though probably not in Greenwich, Connecticut.     A recent posting on the consistently excellent Naked Capitalism weblog (“Mainstream Media Reporting as Propaganda”) touches on one of the more frustrating aspects of the financial crisis – why have the media been so supine…

  • Show me the (real) money

    timprice
    16 Oct 2009 | 1:44 pm
      “And you thought you had broken even. If investors had bought gold when the Dow first closed above 10,000 in March 1999, they’d be up almost 280%. Put another way, Dow 10,000 a decade ago “cost” 36 ounces of gold, treating each Dow point as $1. When the Dow revisited that level Wednesday, it was worth only 9.276 ounces of gold. In oil terms, the Dow has gone from 609 barrels to 133.”   -       The Wall Street Journal on ‘Dow 10,000’.     There were somewhat half-hearted celebrations last week when an antediluvian…
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    Financial Times: Undercover Economist

  • It’s not just Scrooge who wants Christmas abolished

    Tim Harford
    20 Nov 2009 | 4:47 pm
    Nobody has done more to damage relations between the joyous commercial festival that is Christmas and the economics profession than Joel Waldfogel. Long-term readers of this column will be well aware of Professor Waldfogel’s research paper, “The Deadweight Loss of Christmas”. Ever since it was published in 1993 it has been taken out by economic [...]

  • Dear Economist: I love Walmart: my wife hates it. Help!

    Tim Harford
    20 Nov 2009 | 4:44 pm
    My newlywed wife and I are deeply in love. There is, however, one issue that threatens the blissful fabric of our marriage. I absolutely insist upon shopping at Walmart. My wife, meanwhile, would rather avoid Walmart at all costs. I have recently tried to convince her that not only does Walmart offer the lowest prices known [...]

  • Given the choice, how much choice would you like?

    Tim Harford
    13 Nov 2009 | 3:49 pm
    Is more choice better? Ten years ago the answer seemed obvious: Yes. Now the conventional wisdom is the opposite: lots of choice makes people less likely to choose anything, and less happy when they do choose. The most famous supporting evidence is an experiment conducted by two psychologists, Mark Lepper and Sheena Iyengar. They set up [...]

  • Dear Economist: How can I be fair to my grandchildren?

    Tim Harford
    13 Nov 2009 | 3:46 pm
    My son has two children and my daughter four. I propose to give £5,000 to each grandchild in my will. Would this be equitable, given that £20,000 would go to my daughter’s side of the family and only £10,000 to my son’s? Mr Robinson Dear Mr Robinson, Let me be frank: at first glance I thought your dilemma [...]

  • How a celebrity chef turned into a social scientist

    Tim Harford
    6 Nov 2009 | 4:21 pm
    I do not count myself as one of Jamie Oliver’s army of fans, but after looking at the chirpy chef’s antics through the eyes of an economist, I am starting to acquire a grudging respect for him. Yes, the recipe books are all but unreadable, but his “school dinners” campaign has been surprisingly successful. Oliver’s mission [...]
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    Vox (EU)

  • The global distribution of carbon emissions

    20 Nov 2009 | 4:00 pm
    Jean-Marie Grether, Nicole A. Mathys, 21 November 2009What is the geographical distribution of CO2 emissions? This column identifies the Earth’s “polluting centre of gravity” since 1970. It is heading east faster than GDP, which suggests that Asian production is getting more carbon-intensive.Full Article: The global distribution of carbon emissions

  • How preferential are preferential trade agreements?

    20 Nov 2009 | 4:00 pm
    Céline Carrère, Jaime de Melo, Bolormaa Tumurchudur Klok, 21 November 2009Almost all economies are party to preferential trade schemes. But how much are they “giving away” or “receiving” in preferential access? This column presents a compact representation of effective market access and applies it to the proposed ASEAN-EU trade agreement. Full Article: How preferential are preferential trade agreements?

  • Do elections in developing countries improve economic policy?

    20 Nov 2009 | 4:00 pm
    Lisa Chauvet, Paul Collier, 21 November 2009There is some evidence that democracies enjoy better economic growth. How do elections, a core component of democracy, impact economic policy? This says that free and fair elections in developing countries improve economic policy by disciplining governments. But infrequent or uncompetitive elections may actually make things worse. Full Article: Do elections in developing countries improve economic policy?

  • Stabilities and instabilities in the macroeconomy

    20 Nov 2009 | 4:00 pm
    Axel Leijonhufvud, 21 November 2009Economics lacks an anchored understanding of the nature of the reality that economics is supposed to illuminate. This column, which introduces a new CEPR Policy Insight, says that instability of leverage, connectivity, and the potential instability of the price level have all been neglected in stable-with-frictions macro theory. Technical innovations will not bring real progress as long as “stability-with-frictions” remains the ruling paradigm. Meanwhile, governments are not prepared to face another crisis.Full Article: Stabilities and instabilities in…

  • Forecasting macroeconomic developments

    19 Nov 2009 | 4:00 pm
    Alex Cukierman, 20 November 2009Ideology, institutions, political, and accepted economic wisdom shape economic policy choices. This column explores how political ideologies and academic conclusions shaped US policymakers’ responses to the global financial crisis. It says that forecasting macroeconomic developments necessarily involves forecasting the role of such beliefs.Full Article: Forecasting macroeconomic developments
 
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    Oxford University Press USA

  • Yes Justice Scalia, There Were Patents Relating To Training Horses in the 1890s; But More Importantly, We Need Them Today

    Rebecca
    19 Nov 2009 | 11:00 am
    Charles R. Macedo is a partner at Amster, Rothstein & Ebenstein LLP, and the author of The Corporate Insider’s Guide to US Patent Practice, which provides a basic understanding of patent practice in the United States as it relates to both obtaining and enforcing patents. Macedo’s practice specializes in all facets of intellectual property law including patents, trademarks and copyrights.  In the article below he looks at “patent worthiness.”  Read his other OUPblog posts here. Speed Dating is not the only issue that our nine Justices of the Supreme Court raised on…

  • Gillian Saunders Podcast: Place of the Year 2009

    Michelle
    13 Nov 2009 | 11:19 am
    Michelle Rafferty, Publicity Assistant I recently chatted with Gillian Saunders, director of Grant Thornton Strategic Solutions, the consulting firm that has been working on the 2010 World Cup for over a decade now. In this podcast she explains why South Africa got the bid, how preparation for the tournament has changed the country, the controversy behind the giant stadiums, and the one thing you should see when you visit South Africa.  Be sure to check out more “Place of the Year” contributions here. Rafferty: So Gillian, I was wondering if first you could first discuss, give us an…

  • $250 Checks to Seniors: Just Say No

    Rebecca
    2 Nov 2009 | 7:33 am
    By Edward Zelinsky Because the rate of inflation for 2009 has effectively been zero, the Social Security Administration has announced that Social Security payments will stay flat for 2010. In response, the Obama Administration has asked Congress to send every Social Security recipient an additional $250 in 2010. This is a bad idea. The Administration’s proposal is both unfair and misfocused. Many Americans would be delighted to have the same deal as Social Security recipients, namely, the identical cash income in 2010 that they received in 2009. To millions of newly unemployed Americans,…

  • Divide and Conquer? Splitting the Roles of Chair and CEO

    Kirsty
    21 Oct 2009 | 12:12 am
    Chris Mallin is Professor of Corporate Governance and Finance & Director of the Centre for Corporate Governance Research at the University of Birmingham. She is the author of Corporate Governance and she blogs with fellow OUP author Bob Tricker at Corporate Governance. The below post is an adapted version of one found on that blog, and is about whether companies should split the roles of Chair and CEO. Her previous OUP posts can be found here, here and here. It is widely recognised that corporate scandals and collapses often occur when there is a single powerful individual in control of a…

  • Jennifer Burns’s Goddess of the Market

    Rebecca
    15 Oct 2009 | 12:01 pm
    Jennifer Burns is Assistant Professor of History at the University of Virginia.  Her new biography, Goddess of the Market: Ayn Rand and the American Right, follows Rand through her meteoric rise from struggling Hollywood screenwriter to best-selling novelist.   Burns highlights two facets of Rand’s work that make her a perennial draw for those on the right: her promotion of capitalism, and her defense of limited government.  In honor of Jennifer Burns’s The Daily Show appearance (be sure to tune in 11 tonight!) we have posted an excerpt below. “I am coming back to…
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    Cafe Hayek

  • Stop Those Foreigners from Giving Us Such Great Deals!!!

    Don Boudreaux
    20 Nov 2009 | 9:59 pm
    Here’s a letter that I sent to the Wall Street Journal: Peter Navarro asserts that “China mops up vast sums of export dollars through sterilization efforts that are tantamount to forced saving.  In the process, Chinese consumers lose significant purchasing power because of the undervalued yuan – and Americans lose millions of jobs” (Letters, Nov. 21). Ignore the question of whether or not Beijing’s commitment to peg the yuan to the dollar really is currency manipulation.  Instead, suppose the Chinese people truly did – voluntarily – have a very high…

  • Wisdom from Arnold

    Russ Roberts
    20 Nov 2009 | 8:29 am
    Here. The narrative is more important than the facts. People like the narrative because it pleases them. Not because it’s true. Truth is elusive. But evidence and facts do matter. So when someone says the TARP was central to preventing disaster, don’t disagree. Don’t talk about how evil and anti-democratic it was to give the Secretary of the Treasury a $700 billion blank check with no accountability, a check he said he needed desperately and urgently because he needed to do x and then a week or so later, he did y. No, bring that up later. Instead, say the simple most…

  • Disgusting

    Russ Roberts
    20 Nov 2009 | 8:22 am
    I know. This (HT: Drudge) is how “the system” works. I’m supposed to understand it. But I don’t. It’s a lousy system. On page 432 of the Reid bill, there is a section increasing federal Medicaid subsidies for “certain states recovering from a major disaster.” The section spends two pages defining which “states” would qualify, saying, among other things, that it would be states that “during the preceding 7 fiscal years” have been declared a “major disaster area.” I am told the section applies to exactly one state:  Louisiana, the home of moderate…

  • Taxes, Subsidies, and Distortions

    Don Boudreaux
    20 Nov 2009 | 7:32 am
    In the current New Yorker, James Surowiecki is properly critical of the economic distortions introduced by taxing debt-financed income much more lightly than taxing equity-financed income. But his policy conclusion is a non sequitur: Given the weak state of the economy and of housing prices, a wholesale rewriting of the tax code may be a bridge too far right now, but there are plenty of reforms—capping deductions, phasing them out over time, restricting their use by heavily leveraged companies—that would move in the right direction. The clearest hurdle to these changes may be political,…

  • Yet More Meyerson Myths

    Don Boudreaux
    19 Nov 2009 | 2:05 pm
    Here’s a letter that I sent this morning to the Washington Post: Harold Meyerson is confused about U.S. trade with China (”A marriage made in China,” Nov. 18). As incontrovertible evidence that American exporters and producers are harmed by U.S.-China trade, he points to the fact that, since the 1998 agreement that normalized trade between the two countries, America’s trade deficit with China has grown.  Indeed it has grown, in absolute terms. But U.S. imports from China as a proportion of U.S. exports to that country have fallen during this time – from 6.24 in…
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    Dollars & Sense blog

  • Growing CA Student Protests Over Tuition Hikes

    Dollars and Sense
    20 Nov 2009 | 10:42 am
    Student protests against the decision to hike student fees by 32% have spread from UCLA across the University of California system.The Indybay citizen media site has some of the most up-to-date info on the protests:11/20 7am: At least 40 students have occupied Wheeler Hall on the UC Berkeley campus and are asking supporters to come out to the hall to show support. UC Police have surrounded the building as a "crime scene".On Thursday, November 19th, the University of California regents approved a 32% increase in undergraduate fees, pushing fees to over $10,000 a year for the first time.

  • UCLA Students Protest 32 Percent Tuition Hike

    Dollars and Sense
    19 Nov 2009 | 10:37 am
    Students at UCLA have taken to the streets and occupied buildings in protest of an announced tuition hike of 32 percent. At least 14 protesters have been arrested so far.Several students report being tased by police, according to the Daily Bruin.

  • WTO Says Brazil Can Saction US Over Cotton

    Dollars and Sense
    19 Nov 2009 | 9:52 am
    The World Trade Organization has ruled that Brazil may impose trade sanctions against a variety of U.S. exports in a 9-year old complaint about U.S. government subsidies for cotton farmers.From the wires:The formal move at the WTO's dispute settlement body (DSB) brought Brazil one step closer to retaliating against the United States, the world's biggest cotton exporter, in the highly sensitive 9-year-old row.The reduction of rich countries' cotton subsidies is seen by developing countries as the litmus test of efforts to reform the world trading system in the WTO's Doha round, with African…

  • A Better Way to Regulate Financial Markets

    Dollars and Sense
    17 Nov 2009 | 12:18 pm
    From sometime D&S author Thomas Palley, in the Financial Times's Economists' Forum series:A better way to regulate financial markets: Asset based reserve requirementsBy Thomas Palley | November 10, 2009There is widespread recognition that the financial crisis which triggered the Great Recession was significantly due to financial excess, particularly in real estate lending. Now, policymakers are looking to reform the financial system in hope of avoiding future crises. But like the drunk who looks for his lost keys under the lamppost because that is where the light is, policymakers remain…

  • The Worst Is Yet to Come (Nouriel Roubini)

    Dollars and Sense
    16 Nov 2009 | 11:18 am
    From RGE Monitor and yesterday's NY Daily News, Nouriel Roubini tells the unemployed to "hunker down":The Worst is yet to Come: Unemployed Americans Should Hunker Down for More Job LossesNouriel Roubini | Nov 15, 2009Think the worst is over? Wrong. Conditions in the U.S. labor markets are awful and worsening. While the official unemployment rate is already 10.2% and another 200,000 jobs were lost in October, when you include discouraged workers and partially employed workers the figure is a whopping 17.5%.While losing 200,000 jobs per month is better than the 700,000 jobs lost in January,…
 
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    Japan Economy Watch

  • The IMF on Asia's Recovery and its Sustainability

    CV
    8 Nov 2009 | 12:47 pm
    By Claus Vistesen: CopenhagenIn case you had not noticed, the IMF is blogging and it is not "merely" the garden variety IMF staffers they are rolling out to fill the pages; nope here we are treated to the likes of Blanchard, Atkinson, Lipsky, Cottarelli and a host of other of the Fund's A-listers. Consequently, it would seem that in an already (over)crowded world of econblogging, the

  • A scenario for Japan’s public finances

    Scott
    4 Nov 2009 | 1:16 pm
    A few days back there were rumblings of dissatisfaction from the market about Ministry of Finance projected issuance:Japan’s Bonds Drop a 4th Day After 20-Year Auction Demand Cools – Bloomberg.comIt’s possible that the new government will have to limit its borrowing for “stimulus” spending, as the demand for additional JGB’s is limited.It seems to me the scenario would work like this:Ministry of

  • The Performance of Japanese Companies - A Growing Connection with External Demand

    CV
    1 Nov 2009 | 12:52 pm
    By Claus Vistesen: Copenhagen(click on pictures for better viewing) Last week, we learned that industrial production rose yet again in Japan clocking in at 1.4% month-on-month in September after having increased by 1.6% in August. Companies said they planned to increase production in October and November as well, indicating the recovery from a record export collapse in the first quarter is

  • Japan - In the Eye off the Beholder

    CV
    18 Oct 2009 | 2:36 pm
    By Claus Vistesen: Copenhagen(click on pictures for better viewing) After a nice and entertaining week in Barcelona where I had the privilege not only to hold a seminar at the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, but also to meet a host of interesting people, I thought that it would be about time that I finished my piece on the latest data from Japan which admittedly will be a bit backward

  • Japan's US Treasury holdings through August

    Scott
    16 Oct 2009 | 10:33 am
    Note yet another increase in spite of continued yen strength.Source
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    Roland Manarin's Blog

  • See, We Told You So

    This is a guest post from Tim Bastian.  Tim is a Manarin investment advisor and an economics instructor at Creighton University.  Every now and then, I like to revisit some of the things that we previously said to our clients, or in this case, anyone who would listen.  If you ...

  • Blast from the Past

    Look what we dug up from the high school archives ... it's Manarin Investment Counsel Vice President and Portfolio Manager Aron Huddleston, CFA! Related posts:Getting Past The C DotDr. David Kelly on the State of the EconomyMy 6-Minute Video Response About The Economy (Plus: Aron Huddleston on WOWT)

  • A Substitute God

    Until more people come to a more realistic, fact-based understanding of the government and the economy, little hope exists of tearing away from their quasi-religious attachment to a government they view with misplaced reverence and unrealistic hopes.  Lacking a true religious faith yet craving one, many Americans have turned to ...

  • Thoughts and Impressions from Spain

    Last week I returned from the Von Mises Institute's Birthplace of Economic Theory Summit held in Salamanca, Spain.  Here is a brief overview of what I observed: - The genesis of free market economics wasn't really Adam Smith.  He merely brought to the Anglo-Saxon world that which the Jesuit scholars in the 1500's brought to ...

  • Economic Recovery, Government Stimulus, and the Conservatives’ Mistake

    GDP for the third quarter was released.  Real gross domestic product was up 3.5% at an annualized rate.  Let's compare that to the first quarter when it was falling at a 6.4% annualized rate.  So in other words, from the trough to where we are today, we have a 9.9% ...
 
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    Block's Indicator of Sustainable Growth

  • Algae biofuel commercial in five to 10 years

    by Ray Block Although a commercial outcome of producing algae at comparable prices to oil is five to 10 years away, there is a great volume of research proceeding at a fast clip. For fans of algae as a future transportation fuel, it is highly significant that the longest ranking researcher of algae, the National ...

  • 40 % increase in energy demand by 2030?

    by Ray Block The World Energy Outlook 2009  released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) is quite stark in its projections of energy growth over the years ahead to 2030. In a continuation of a high carbon business as usual scenario, world   electricity demand would rise by 2.5 per cent a year to 2030, of which 80 per cent will ...

  • Think Big (4): new energy R&D in the US

    By Ray Block ARPA-E is the acronym for Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy, the funding vehicle for new energy research and development (R&D) in the US. A concept co-conceived  byNobel laureate in Physics, Steven Chu in 2006, when he was director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,   that there should be a resource, whereby researchers could develop new concepts in advanced energy.  The ...

  • Think Big:Why not nuclear in Australia?

    by Ray Block   Australians have always looked on themselves as the lucky country. First,  it was a case of riding on the sheep's back. Now, it is the same with abundant minerals and natural gas in great demand by Asia. With coal, the largest export earner,  which in turn provides approximately  75 per cent of the ...

  • Think Big (2) solar power from outer space

    by Ray Block Think Big (1) was about the Desertec concept, where concentrating solar thermal power arrays in the Sahara regions of Algeria and Morocco would supply potentially 15 per cent of Europe's energy needs by 2050. The Sahara was the first of the Desertec plans. But equally it could apply to other deserts in the tropical zone between the ...
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    Economy Watch

  • The Big Money

    17 Dec 2018 | 5:38 pm
    Party Poopers Did Wells Fargo save any money by canceling its lavish event? The Way We Beg Depression Diary, Part 5

  • Stat header

    18 Sep 2018 | 9:53 am
    1.0% Q2 GDP   |   4.98% avg. 30-year mortgage  |   10.2%Unemployment

  • Markets flatten: Have they found their top?

    20 Nov 2009 | 11:17 am
    In early afternoon trading, stocks have pared some of their losses, but they are down for the second straight day (and spent most of Wednesday underwater before closing up), so it's worth wondering if this is a blip or the long-advertised "correction" traders have been predicting and awaiting. First, a look at the markets right now. As of about 2:15, the Dow is down three-tenths of 1 percent. The broader S&P 500 is down four-tenths of 1 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq is down six-tenths of 1 percent. Now, let's take a look back and see how the markets have been trending in recent months.

  • Leonsis: I was not planning on selling Revolution Money

    19 Nov 2009 | 11:44 am
    I had a long talk with Ted Leonsis on Wednesday night about American Express's $300 million purchase of Leonsis's Revolution Money, a PayPal-like online alternative-payment site. I wrote a story in today's paper, which you can read by clicking here. But I wasn't able to squeeze some interesting things he said into the newspaper story, so I wanted to share them with you here today. Let's be clear about this: This sale was probably Leonsis's best play for Revolution Money to continue growing. Trying to go up against the four big payment networks -- Visa, Mastercard, Amex and Discover is like…

  • Rep. Brady to Geithner: 'Will you step down?'

    19 Nov 2009 | 8:09 am
    Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Tex.) just gave a severe tongue-lashing to Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner moments ago in the Joint Economic committee, concluding with a surprising call for Geithner to resign. For a change, Geithner didn't just sit there and take it. Geithner is ostensibly before the committee to argue for financial reform, but Brady used the opportunity to launch a partisan attack on Geithner reading a laundry list of what Brady termed as economic failures of the current administration. Geithner responded with a spirited defense -- edgier than usual -- and was clearly angered by the…
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    Credit Slips

  • Son of Pine Gate

    Stephen Lubben
    18 Nov 2009 | 5:55 am
    As Credit Slips readers may know, a group of key Philadelphia newspapers are currently in chapter 11. The debtor that owns the papers owes its secured lenders north of $290 million. It wants to sell itself under a plan to a group of buyers that include some insiders. The deal will net the lenders $36 million. You'll be shocked to learn the lenders are not fond of the proposed plan.But when the debtor sought approval of bidding procedures that denied the lenders a right to credit bid under §363(k) or exercise their right to an "1111(b) election," under the theory that the…

  • Lehman & Barclays

    Stephen Lubben
    17 Nov 2009 | 8:31 am
    Lehman has sued Barclays over the incredibly rushed sale of Lehman's key brokerage assets to Barclays a year ago. No doubt the financial industry crowd will use this to further promote their argument that chapter 11 does not work for large financial firms, thus supporting the need to reinvent the wheel create a new "resolution authority."This, of course, ignores the degree to which the financial community created the Lehman mess, by both undermining chapter 11 through the reckless expansion of the derivative safe harbors in 2005 and by the general refusal to work with the…

  • Repeal the Safe Harbors?

    Stephen Lubben
    16 Nov 2009 | 2:28 am
    Today I'm speaking (along with my co-blogger, Adam) at the ABI's conference on chapter 11 reform at Georgetown. I'll be making the case for the repeal of the derivative safe harbors in the Code -- my paper can be found here. I should point out that I suggest that the repeal should be accompanied by corresponding changes to the Code, like allowing "mark to market" collateral provisions to persist despite the automatic stay, giving the debtor the burden of going to court to stop them if they are inappropriate, so my position is not quite as extreme as it might seem at…

  • Modification Scams

    Katie Porter
    12 Nov 2009 | 4:28 am
    While the loan origination fraud is largely shut down, the foreclosure crisis has spawned a whole new consumer fraud in the form of foreclosure rescue and loan modification scams. These companies offer to help consumers get a loan modification or to fend off a foreclosure in return for high, upfront fees. A great insider view of how these companies profit on the backs of desperate consumers is available in the receiver’s report in U.S. Foreclosure Relief, which was shut down in response to enforcement action by the Federal Trade Commission and the Missouri and California State Attorneys…

  • Senate Hearing on Medical Bankruptcies (Oct. 20, 2009) (Pottow)

    John Pottow
    11 Nov 2009 | 8:10 pm
    Yes, I went back to D.C. for more congressional bankruptcy brouhaha, this on the rising incidence of medical bankruptcies.  C-SPAN decided to broadcast the proceedings in all their glory.  Sen. Franken (D-MN) was armed with statistics on Swiss medical bankruptcies -- very well prepared, I must say.  Here's the video.  Hearing Ms. Burns' story about losing her son to cystic fibrosis -- and then her financial life -- was gut-wrenching.  The good news is that Sen. Whitehouse (D-RI) seems motivated to pursue his bill and is gathering increasing support.  For those wanting more…
 
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    Megan McArdle

  • Oprah Winfrey Ending the Most Successful Television Show Ever

    20 Nov 2009 | 11:04 am
    Oprah Winfrey has announced that she is ending her show after its 25th season.  You can see why she's doing it:  one of the wealthiest people in America, with $2.6 billion to her name, Ms. Winfrey hardly needs to keep showing up for a job that must be getting a little repetitive by now.  Moreover, she still has a massive media empire with properties like O Magazine to keep the money rolling in.  And with the termination of her show, she'll be launching her very own cable network, OWN.Of course, it remains to be seen whether her empire will remain intact after she leaves…

  • AppleCare: No Smokers Need Apply

    20 Nov 2009 | 10:48 am
    Allegedly, Apple is declining to repair Macs owned by smokers on the ground that secondhand smoke is dangerous.  This a gross misunderstanding of the science--theoretically, tobacco tar could be hazardous if applied to your skin, but you'd have to really slather it on, leave it there for an extended period, and reapply fairly frequently.  But it also seems like a gross misunderstanding of who makes up their customer base on the East Coast.

  • Is Fox a Real News Operation?

    20 Nov 2009 | 9:16 am
    Fox News seems to have a real problem with cutting old footage into new stories.  The liberal theory is that this is some sort of concerted conspiracy to imply that 80 million Americans turn out for every Tea Party or Sarah Palin appearance. The conservative line is that they were simply trying to punch up an otherwise dull segment, and/or somehow ran out of footage of the actual event.  The latter story makes marginally more sense to me, but only because I cannot imagine that anyone at Fox News--indeed, anyone with a pulse--is stupid enough to imagine that a few shots of excess…

  • Mental Health Break

    20 Nov 2009 | 8:56 am
    The Real Problem with vampires.

  • The Other CBO Health Care Report

    20 Nov 2009 | 8:19 am
    Shortly after it posted its analysis of the Senate health care bill, the CBO put up a letter to Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI) analyzing the House's other health care bill:  the $200+ billion dollar "fix" (aka repeal) of the Sustainable Growth Rate.  For those of you who haven't been following along at home, the Sustainable Growth Rate was a cost-cutting measure enacted as part of the Balanced Budget Act of 1997.  Not to bore you with unnecessary details, it tied the growth in physician reimbursement payments to GDP growth.  This worked for a few years, because we had…
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    FedEx Citizenship Blog - Economics & Access

  • FedEx Launches SenseAware

    Matt Ceniceros
    18 Nov 2009 | 9:41 am
    FedEx has announced SenseAware (SM) powered by FedEx, a next generation, first-of-its-kind information service that combines a GPS sensor device and a web-based collaboration platform.

  • Rio’s Olympic Reality

    Gene Huang
    6 Oct 2009 | 5:26 am
    When the International Olympic Committee (IOC) awarded the 2016 Summer games to Brazil’s Rio de Janeiro, it left many here in America looking for reasons why.  When viewed through an objective lens, it’s easy to see why Rio would be a wonderful host city, with its beautiful beaches and colorful culture.  In addition, Forbes magazine named Rio the world’s happiest city for 2009.   read more

  • Introducing Saad

    Saad
    22 Sep 2009 | 9:33 am
    Hi there! I’m Saad (pronounced "SAHD"), the newest airborne team member at FedEx Express.In case you can’t tell from the picture - I'm a Boeing 777 Freighter hired by FedEx Express to carry air freight on extremely long trips – as long as 6,675 land miles at a time.  read more

  • No Small Business Needs to Be An Island

    Karen Rogers
    8 Sep 2009 | 8:11 am
    In these trying economic times, small businesses need to leverage all their traditional advantages – innovation, flexibility, and intimate knowledge of their customers. But, most of all, in today’s global marketplace, small businesses should not limit themselves within traditional barriers. They need to think global.read more

  • CEOs and Military Coups and Figs: Ingredients Tied Together with a Dash of Magic to draw a “Blueprint for Success”

    Bill Margaritis
    7 Aug 2009 | 9:42 am
    It happened at the Magic Johnson Leadership Conference in Los Angeles, sponsored in part by FedEx, where I had the honor of speaking to college students from all over the country who have received scholarships through the Magic Johnson Foundation. We at FedEx are proud to support Magic’s efforts to broaden educational opportunities for young people with great potential and limited resources.read more
 
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    InvestorCentric

  • Job Growth Missing In Action

    The Capital Spectator
    20 Nov 2009 | 5:51 am
    Jobless claims staying over 500,000 may cause more worry about economic recovery turning into a double-dip recession. While the crowd has been conditioned to expect extreme outcomes due to recent events, we should be careful not to be overly pessimistic or optimistic says James Picerno. See the following article from The Capital SpectatorThe danger is not the past, but the future.Today’s update on weekly jobless claims may be the warning sign. New filings for jobless benefits were unchanged last week, hovering at 505,000, matching the previous week’s tally. Although this number is down…

  • Mortgage Delinquencies Reach Frightening New Record

    NuWire Investor
    20 Nov 2009 | 5:48 am
    One area of the economy that isn't improving is foreclosures which are not expected to peak until 2011 by some estimates. More bad news is that delinquencies have reached a new record with nearly 10% of home mortgages behind by at least one payment. See the following post from Expected ReturnsAs I've expected for months now, 'green shoots' are wilting before our very eyes. I've never heard of a recovery characterized by rising unemployment, record foreclosures, collapsing consumer credit, and falling consumer confidence, but hey, maybe we're in a new paradigm. From the New York Times, U.S.

  • Obama Changes His Tune On Deficit

    NuWire Investor
    19 Nov 2009 | 5:53 am
    After campaigning for and signing into effect more than $800 billion in federal stimulus, President Obama now is worried that too much debt could create a double-dip recession and recently spoke out against deficit spending. Although the federal stimulus package delivered limited and underwhelming job growth results, Democrats in Congress are already at work on a second package targeted at spurring job growth – one that will likely result in more deficit spending. See the following from The StreetPresident Obama, the champion of stimulus spending, is suddenly worried about an overload of…

  • Obama Wrong About Deficits Causing A Double-Dip Recession

    Economist's View
    19 Nov 2009 | 5:50 am
    Mark Thoma discusses why Obama is wrong about the deficit causing a double-dip recession. While he may be trying to reassure China about their US dollar concerns, a premature attempt to balance the budget before the economy is fully recovered is more likely to lead to a second recession. See the following post from Economist's ViewEdward Harrison catches this quote from Obama: The president is in Beijing as part of his tour through several Asian countries to address economic challenges. He spoke candidly about the precarious balancing act his administration is trying to perform. He wants to…

  • Why Gold Bubble Advocates Could Be Wrong

    NuWire Investor
    18 Nov 2009 | 5:59 am
    Gold has risen to an unprecedented $1140, causing some to conclude the market is a bubble about to burst. Moses Kim makes a case for resisting the urge to short gold as political tensions, particularly class conflict and concerns over taxation, will cause instability, volatility, and an increased demand for the security offered by gold. See the following post from Expected ReturnsThat is, if you want to survive as a trader. Anyone who has been trading actively for a reasonable period of time knows that gold and silver move to their own unique rhythm, and that shorting gold over the past…
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    The Aleph Blog

  • The Forever Fund

    David Merkel
    13 Nov 2009 | 12:08 am
    Imagine for a moment that you were approached by a very wealthy foundation, and they asked you to invest their money.  They offer a low asset-based fee, but the assets are so large that it looks like a dream to you.  Then they tell you the conditions: We want this fund to last forever. It must be able to deliver cash proceeds of 5% of assets each year. We want it to generate a return that exceeds 7%/year over the long haul. It must be able to do this through all environments, regardless of war, including civil war, socialism, famine, plague, etc.  This is the “forever fund.”…

  • Deeds, not Words on the US Dollar

    David Merkel
    11 Nov 2009 | 10:15 pm
    From Bloomberg, I quote our Treasury Secretary: “I believe deeply that it’s very important to the United States, to the economic health of the United States, that we maintain a strong dollar,” Geithner told reporters in Tokyo today. Before I write, I can hear my friend Caroline Baum of Bloomberg gearing up her mental energies to say something like, “Again?  How many times can they say that with a straight face?” If I wanted to create a strong dollar, what would I do? I would have the Fed raise short-term rates. I would reduce the creation of dollar claims by bringing the…

  • How to Regulate the Banks, and other Financials

    David Merkel
    11 Nov 2009 | 12:44 am
    At the Treasury meeting, I commented that the insurers were better regulated for solvency than the banks.  One of the reasons for that is that they do harder stress tests, and they look longer-term. So, if one is trying to regulate banks for solvency, there are two things to do: Set risk-based capital formulas so that few institutions fail. Make it even less likely that larger institutions fail. As a clever old boss of mine once said, “A banks liabilities are its assets, and its assets are its liabilities.”  The idea is this — banks that focus on their deposit franchises…

  • My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 7 (Final)

    David Merkel
    10 Nov 2009 | 12:23 am
    Things have been busy for me, so this final part should be short.  What did I learn that I did not already know?  Not much, except: The Treasury wants to convince  the public that it is doing its best, but that Congress is a slave to the Financial Services industries. When asked about the latest bailout of GMAC, they said that didn’t qualify as a financial — the aid was to help the auto companies.  (If so, send it directly, and let GMAC expire.) They said that they worried about the same things we did, though they had to maintain public confidence, and did not think it was as…

  • My Visit to the US Treasury, Part 6

    David Merkel
    7 Nov 2009 | 8:30 pm
    Now, none of us knew when we came that only bloggers were invited.  Personally, I expected it to be a broader press briefing that some bloggers could come to as well.  “Deep background” is well understood to the press, but new to bloggers.  My blogging friends at the meeting can correct me, but all of us were surprised that it was only bloggers at the meeting. My only clue that they might have treated us nicer than some other gatherings, was that some staffers not at the meeting came in after the meeting to raid some cookies.  Now, maybe that is normal regardless there. …
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    Energy & Society

  • On Discount Rates

    A.V. Elias Suni
    4 Nov 2009 | 1:20 pm
    RFF has published an article by Cameron Hepburn who confuses pure rate of time preference with consumption discount rate. It's troubling that this confusion still keeps popping up among academics. Hepburn says:In contrast to Stern’s prescriptive approach, previous research tended to be “descriptive” in assumptions about discounting, focusing on what we actually do, rather than what we ought to do from an ethical point of view. The focus was on market interest rates, which reflect the sum of many individual choices. Historic market interest rates (ignoring past and present financial…

  • Self-fulfilling Prophecies

    A.V. Elias Suni
    2 Nov 2009 | 4:08 am
    Angela Merkel on Friday:It is realistic to say that in Copenhagen we will not be able to conclude a treatyGuardian, yesterday:"Nobody thinks we will get a full treaty," said a spokesman for the Department of Energy and Climate Change (UK)...Lars Løkke Rasmussen, prime minister of Denmark, said: "We do not think it will be possible to decide all the finer details for a legally binding regime." Hanne Bjurstroem, Norwegian cabinet minister and chief climate negotiator, told Reuters: "I don't believe we will get a full, ratifiable, legally binding agreement from Copenhagen."Our climate…

  • While waiting for the results from the vote on Waxman-Markey

    A.V. Elias Suni
    26 Jun 2009 | 2:07 pm
    Read this posting by the Earth Institute's blog on turning CO2 into a solid carbonate. Having the first large-scale demonstration facility come online in September is a huge thing. Let's hope it works.Who wants some limestone?

  • Message from Detroit to Capitol Hill

    A.V. Elias Suni
    8 Jun 2009 | 12:52 pm
    Jim Oberstar, the chairman of US House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee has proposed a higher fuel tax, making many Democrats nervous about what is "too much" in these difficult times. Obama also opposes the tax hike. I'm inclined to question the logic behind the opposition, whether it's populism or domestic realpolitik.Dave McCurdy, President of the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers was on EETV today talking about Detroit's challenges on the path to lower car emissions. He said one thing the Obama administration should take heed of:But I think there has to be price signals,…

  • People who get us into trouble

    A.V. Elias Suni
    29 Apr 2009 | 3:41 pm
    I found this latest piece by Robert J. Samuelson via Paul Krugman, who nails some of the most disturbing fallacies in the column:I don’t think there’s a single thing there that’s right. What on earth do business cycles have to do with it? The models may assume growth based on past trends, but they DO ask whether emissions policy would greatly slow growth — and the answer is no. Consumers aren’t assumed to “quickly” use less — the time frame in these models is decades long. And new supplies don’t “magically” appear — they respond to price incentives, which is what…
 
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    Quoting the Crisis

  • "More bad news for the housing market, the number of people falling behind on their mortgage payments..."

    20 Nov 2009 | 1:47 pm
    “More bad news for the housing market, the number of people falling behind on their mortgage payments continues to climb. The Mortgage Bankers Association says 9.64 percent of all home loans outstanding last quarter were at least one payment past due. What’s worse? That figure does not include loans that are in the process of foreclosure, 4.47 percent of loans were in foreclosure, up from 4.3 percent last quarter.” - Caitlin Kenney in Mortgage Defaults Hitting Record Highs - Planet Money Blog : NPR

  • "More than a million children regularly go to bed hungry in the US, according to a government report..."

    20 Nov 2009 | 11:46 am
    “More than a million children regularly go to bed hungry in the US, according to a government report that shows a startling increase in the number of families struggling to put food on the table.” - Chris McGreal in Record numbers go hungry in households in the US | World news | guardian.co.uk

  • "Just two days before the New York Fed paid A.I.G.’s partners 100 cents on the dollar to tear up..."

    20 Nov 2009 | 9:46 am
    “Just two days before the New York Fed paid A.I.G.’s partners 100 cents on the dollar to tear up their contracts with the insurance giant, one bank volunteered to take a modest haircut — but it never got the chance. UBS, of Switzerland, alone offered to give a break to the New York Fed in the negotiations last November over how to keep A.I.G. from toppling and taking other banks down with it. It would have accepted 98 cents on the dollar. But UBS’s good-faith gesture was quickly drowned out by Goldman Sachs and the top French bank regulator. They argued, with others, that it would be…

  • "The United States of America … came into this crisis without anything like the basic tools..."

    20 Nov 2009 | 7:46 am
    “The United States of America … came into this crisis without anything like the basic tools countries need to contain financial panics. Coming into AIG, we had basically duct tape and string.” - Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, quoted by Sarah O’Connor and Alan Rappeport in FT.com / US / Economy & Fed - Geithner defends record to Congress

  • "It may be the world’s richest nation, but the US is no stranger to startling poverty. A new..."

    20 Nov 2009 | 5:46 am
    “It may be the world’s richest nation, but the US is no stranger to startling poverty. A new report from the US Department of Agriculture says that food insecurity is the highest in America since the survey began. Food insecurity - defined by the USDA as when “food intake … was reduced and their eating patterns were disrupted at times during the year because the household lacked money and other resources for food” - afflicted 14.6% of Americans in 2008. Ie, some 50 million people were too poor to guarantee being able to put food on the table.” - Simon Rogers in Hungry America:…
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    IMF Survey Magazine

  • Comparing Recessions in Germany, Spain, and United Kingdom

    18 Nov 2009 | 6:49 am
    While the global financial crisis and recession have hit all of Europe’s economies, the impact has varied considerably across countries. Output and employment, for instance, have moved quite differently in Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom, three of the larger European countries, according to IMF research.

  • IMF Backs Continued Chinese Stimulus, Economic Rebalancing

    17 Nov 2009 | 3:00 pm
    The head of the IMF welcomes China’s pledge to continue with its stimulus package in 2010 and says the Chinese would gain from a reorienting of their economy away from exports to domestic consumption

  • Experts Warn Financial System Risks Still High

    10 Nov 2009 | 9:26 am
    Governments need to rethink how the financial sector intersects with the broader economy if future crises are to be avoided, economists agreed at a panel discussion at the International Monetary Fund’s recently held Economic Forum.

  • ‘Too Complex to Fail’ the Real Issue, Says IMF

    10 Nov 2009 | 6:16 am
    Governments should consider the potential of financial institutions to severely damage global financial and economic stability in assessing when firms are "too complex to fail," the IMF said, launching a paper to help determine which firms and markets are systemically important.

  • IMF to Assess G-20 Progress on Recovery, Mulls Financial Levy

    7 Nov 2009 | 4:16 pm
    G-20 finance officials pledge to maintain economic stimulus measures until recovery from the global crisis is assured and ask the IMF to assess whether countries are on track to avoid future problems. IMF looks into levy on financial sector
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    SPG Trend Blog

  • Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other Side

    Morris Segall
    16 Nov 2009 | 4:39 am
    We recently updated our presentation on today’s economic landscape and what’s on the other side with some fresh data.  We hope you continue to find value in our slides: Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other Side View more presentations from SPG Trend Advisors.

  • The Government Stimulates the Third Quarter but Doubts Remain

    Morris Segall
    3 Nov 2009 | 5:02 am
    GDP for the third quarter comes in strong stimulated by the government but the details and other consumer economic data create doubts on sustainability and make the capital markets nervous. Continue reading this premium article at spgtrend.com. Related reading: Economic and Capital Market Update The September Employment Report: More Unsettling News The Economy, Capital Markets, Healthcare and Geopolitical Events

  • Dow 10,000; the Dollar and Commodities

    Morris Segall
    22 Oct 2009 | 5:06 am
    After reaching the 10,000 level last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stalled reflecting an overextended condition. Over the same period the U.S. Dollar and commodity prices, led by oil, moved to new lows and new highs, respectively, for this year. These trends are inconsistent with a rising stock market and something had to correct. Either commodities, driven recently by speculation, reversed course or the stock market would retreat under the downward pressure from a falling dollar and rising commodity prices. We have expected a correction in the stock market as it became overextended…

  • The September Employment Report: More Unsettling News

    Morris Segall
    5 Oct 2009 | 5:52 am
    Friday’s monthly employment report for September was bad. September job losses, per the Business Establishment series, was a -263,000, worse than analysts projected. Job losses were widespread between manufacturing, construction and a huge 147,000 loss in service sector jobs. The stated unemployment rate increased to 9.8%, another record level. The unofficial unemployment rate that includes underemployed and discouraged workers rose to 17%. The average workweek declined to a record low 33 hours and the employment to population ratio declined to a record low of 58.8%. That means less…

  • The Economy, Capital Markets, Healthcare and Geopolitical Events

    Morris Segall
    1 Oct 2009 | 5:23 am
    Today the government released its third and final revision to the second quarter GDP numbers and shaved the 1% contraction to .7%. There were no major shifts in trends from the previous report but the positive direction of business fixed investment and consumer spending was aided by a surge in government spending, as expected. As we have stated previously, it appears the recession ended in the second quarter. Led by rising home and auto sales, positive trends in industrial production and retail sales continued through July. The expectation was for these trends to continue through August and…
 
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    247 Wall Street

  • Hershey Longs For Cadbury?

    247wallst
    20 Nov 2009 | 1:46 pm
    The trust that controls Hershey has asked the company to make a bid for UK sweets company Cadbury (NYSE:CBY). The Wall Street Journal reports that the offer would be approximately $17 billion which would top the current offer from Kraft (NYSE:KFT) Douglas A. McIntyre Posted in Mergers and Buy Outs Tagged: CBY, KFT [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

  • 52-Week High Club (DDS, DBRN, SJM, MRK)

    247wallst
    20 Nov 2009 | 1:11 pm
    Dillard’s Inc. (NYSE: DDS) rose as high as over 10% to a yearly high of $15.79 after the department-store chain was upgraded by Deutsche Bank AG.   Dress Barn Inc. (NASDAQ: DBRN) rose as high as 9.2% to a yearly his of $22.42 after the women’s clothing retailer announced earnings of $0.37, beating analysts estimates. The J.M. [...] [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

  • Unusual Friday Options Activity (AAPL, GOOG, BAC, LEAP, PCS, DRYS, YHOO)

    247wallst
    20 Nov 2009 | 12:24 pm
    We have seen some unusual options trading today.  As you would expect, some is around today’s 4:00 PM close  with today being options expiration date.  But some bets are way out into 2011 and we have some around merger rumors.  All have links with full details on the options trading analysis at VSInvestor: Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: [...] [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

  • Next Week’s Top 10 Earnings on Deck (HPQ, TSN, CPB, LDK, TECD, BKS, BGP, JCG, DLTR, DE)

    247wallst
    20 Nov 2009 | 10:19 am
    Earnings season has mostly wound down, but as always there are at least some major companies reporting earnings.  Some are actually market-movers as well and it is a short week with earnings out only Monday and Tuesday, with a few on Wednesday.  On deck are Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ), Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN), Campbell [...] [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

  • Rig Count Growth Mostly Positive (BHI, OIH, DIG, USO, OIL)

    247wallst
    20 Nov 2009 | 10:11 am
    Baker Hughes, Inc. (NYSE: BHI) has released its data on the weekly rig counts and most are up. We are watching the key ETF products react via the Oil Services HOLDRs (NYSE: OIH), the Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (NYSE: DIG), the United States Oil (NYSE: USO) ETF and the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil [...] [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
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    Wallet Pop: Recession

  • Single women are hit hard by the recession

    Francine Huff
    20 Nov 2009 | 2:00 pm
    Filed under: Career, Wealth, RecessionThere have been a lot of reports about which group of people have been hit hardest by the recession. Men have definitely been hit disproportionately hard by job losses. In fact, men held 71.9% of the jobs lost since the recession began, hurt by mass layoffs in construction and manufacturing, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. I've even written about how more households are relying on female breadwinners after husbands were laid off. But single women -- many of whom are mothers or caregivers -- who get laid off don't have a second income to…

  • Unemployed seek jury duty for pay, but it's not worth it

    Aaron Crowe
    19 Nov 2009 | 8:00 am
    Filed under: Career, RecessionSome unemployed people are so anxious to work that they're volunteering for jury duty and the minimal pay that goes with it, according to a New York Post story. As someone who recently spent four boring and frustrating days sitting on a jury, the $30 that I'll get wasn't worth the hassle and won't make me volunteer for it, no matter how underemployed I am. Other than the civic duty involved, it's a waste of time as far as getting paid. My recent jury duty netted me $1.53 per hour. Besides, if I was a lawyer I wouldn't want a juror who was there for the money and…

  • Between a rock and a hard place for Congress: Jobs or a rough 2010

    Bob Cesca
    18 Nov 2009 | 6:00 am
    Filed under: Career, RecessionFor the last year or so, I've been conducting an experiment. Now, don't hold me to the scientific method because it's been a really informal experiment. But the results have been both scary, enlightening and not very surprising. Cutting to the chase, for almost exactly the last 12 months, I've been applying for various jobs via one of the popular online job search sites. Some background first. I'm self-employed. I write about politics, I produce videos, I make cartoons. But last year when the market tanked and the really serious recession began, I began to…

  • The American Dream: buy your own laundromat

    Sarah Gilbert
    18 Nov 2009 | 5:00 am
    Filed under: Home, Career, RecessionIt turns out that the bad economy is great for coin-op laundromats. Because, though houses with laundry rooms will be foreclosed upon, washing machines and dryers will break and be too expensive to fix, and sometimes, we lose our homes entirely, we still need clean clothes. Long the refuge for college students, the young creative class, jobless, homeless and others not in possession of a few Whirlpools, laundromats are now flourishing. And the middle class is showing up, too, pride and laundry baskets in hand. By all appearances, this would be a great time…

  • 'Too big to fail banks' leaving behind 'too small to help' customers and businesses

    Charles Feldman
    17 Nov 2009 | 12:45 pm
    Filed under: Real Estate, Wealth, Recession, MortgagesAnother week and another round of the national guessing game: when exactly will the Great Recession's alleged end impact me? Or my children? Or my neighbors? The "too big to fail" banking crowd has gotten lots of help from D.C. But the jobless rate, despite a decline of late in layoffs, continues to go skyward, or, in the words of that most famous working-class stiff Ralph Kramer to his wife, Alice, "to the moon!" "This will be a very slow recovery," says Jack Kyser, founder of the Kyser Center for Economic Research at the Los Angeles…
 
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    The Baseline Scenario

  • Government Debt Hysteria

    James Kwak
    20 Nov 2009 | 10:00 am
    I don’t spend a lot of time trying to police the economic news media — Dean Baker and Brad DeLong are much better on that — but I found myself reading a two-week-old Newsweek column by Robert Samuelson that enraged me enough to type this out. (I read it on old-fashioned paper, but here’s the WaPo version.) The title of the WaPo version is “Could America Go Broke?” and here’s the last paragraph: “Deprived of international or domestic credit, defaulting countries in the past have suffered deep economic downturns, hyperinflation, or both. The odds…

  • The AIG-Maiden Lane III Controversy

    James Kwak
    20 Nov 2009 | 7:51 am
    As everyone knows by now, Neil Barofsky, special inspector general for TARP, has a new report out on the decision by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York last Fall to make various AIG counterparties (primarily some very big banks with names you know) whole on the the CDS protection they had bought from AIG to cover their risk on some CDOs. The potentially juicy bit has to do with the Maiden Lane III transaction (New York Fed summary here). There are a couple of details I can’t quite reconcile (for example, the Fed balance sheet shows initial funding of $29.3 billion, but everyone says…

  • CRA Bashing, Nth Generation

    James Kwak
    19 Nov 2009 | 9:00 am
    The Community Reinvestment Act is a law originally passed in 1977 that directed federal regulatory agencies to ensure that the banks they supervised were not discriminating against particular communities in making credit available.The onset of the subprime mortgage crisis triggered a flood of sloppy, lazy attacks on the CRA claiming that since the crisis was created by excess lending to the poor, and the CRA was intended to increase lending to the poor, the CRA must have caused the crisis. These arguments suffered from a mistaken premise (subprime lending had a modest negative correlation…

  • Written Testimony Submitted To The Congressional Oversight Panel

    Simon Johnson
    19 Nov 2009 | 6:30 am
    Testimony submitted to the Congressional Oversight Panel, hearing on “The overall impact of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) on the health of the financial system and the general U.S. economy,” Thursday, November 19, 2009. (pdf version) Submitted by Simon Johnson, Ronald Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship, MIT Sloan School of Management; Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics; and co-founder of http://BaselineScenario.com. Summary 1)      In the immediate policy response to any major financial crisis – involving a generalized loss of confidence in…

  • Auto Race to the Bottom

    James Kwak
    19 Nov 2009 | 6:12 am
    This guest post was contributed by Raj Date, head of the Cambridge Winter Center for Financial Institutions Policy and a former McKinsey consultant, bank senior executive, and Wall Street managing director. For further information on the auto dealer exemption, see the recent study by the Cambridge Winter Center. Over the past several months, Congress has debated ways to strengthen and rationalize consumer protection in financial services.  Central to that debate is the proposed creation of a new agency focused exclusively on this issue, the Consumer Financial Protection Agency (the…
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    Minyanville

  • Quote, Unquote: Biased Credit Rating Agencies?

    20 Nov 2009 | 1:30 pm
    “We believe that the credit rating agencies in exchange for fees departed from their objective neutral role as arbiters. At minimum they were aiding and abetting misconduct by issuers.”-- Richard Cordray Ohio attorney general on filing suit against Moody’s Standard & Poor’s and Fitch (MHP)“Trust dies but mistrust blossoms.”-- Sophocles***“F.H.A. financing was a lost language in San Francisco the real-estate equivalent of Aramaic. Once the limits were raised smart buyers started calling.”-- Michael Ackerman a Bay Area real-estate…

  • Buzz on the Street: Gold Caught In a Bubble?

    20 Nov 2009 | 1:20 pm
    All day and every day some of the stock market's best and brightest traders and money managers share their ideas insights and analysis in real-time on Minyanville's Buzz & Banter. Check out some of the best of the buzz and for those minyans not currently subscribed  click here for a free two-week trial. Note: Some links may require Buzz subscriptions.Monday November 16 2009Battle of the IndexesSmita SadanaAfter dwelling on the NASDAQ for the past many days it is time for a change. Let me share what I believe is the most significant thing on my trading radar.If…

  • Trading Radar: GDP Highlights a Thin Week

    20 Nov 2009 | 12:30 pm
    Next week the volume will dry up as traders head out to stuff themselves for the Thanksgiving holiday. With the market close Thursday and a half day on Friday economic data will be packed into the first three days of the week. Traders will be watching GDP and Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and then Wednesday Michigan Sentiment Durable Orders and New Home Sales will affect trading. Expect Friday to be super slow as traders nurse their Turkey hangovers. Monday November 23Economics 10:00 Existing Home Sales 5.65m cons. Earnings Before: JOBS BJS CPB LDK TSNAfter: ADI ATW CTRN HPQ…

  • Airlines: People Won't Fly, So We'll Raise Fees

    20 Nov 2009 | 11:45 am
    Airlines say it’s the right time to fly touting cheap fares and less crowding but special holiday fees could keep travelers grounded on Turkey Day and well into next year. The Air Transport Association an industry trade group released data Friday that showed that 3% fewer people took to the skies during the month of October despite ticket prices being down 12.5% year-over-year. This pushed passenger revenue down for the 12th straight month.The data which was based on a random sampling of the member airlines showed current prices to be on par to prices during the 1998 traveling season…

  • Goldman, Beaten But Unbowed

    20 Nov 2009 | 10:45 am
    More than most the PR department at Goldman Sachs (GS) must be looking forward to the weekend: It just spent the last few days getting pummeled like Apollo Creed. Today the hits kept right on coming. The Wall Street Journal reports this morning that shareholders in Goldman have asked the bank to slice the size of its bonus pool arguing that the firm should pass along more of its earnings to investors.“The investors hold tens of millions of shares in Goldman Sachs which is on track to make the biggest employee payout in the firm's 140-year history ” the ...
 
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    Howard Lindzon

  • Entrepreneuring

    Howard Lindzon
    20 Nov 2009 | 4:52 am
    I have been ‘entrepreneuring’ the last year with Stocktwits. I can’t fully describe the feeling, but entrepreneuring is an intense way of life. Are we pushing something up a hill? Am we rolling downhill? Should we run like hell? Should we slowly build a ‘moat’? I know how it feels…same as always…out of control! There really is no playbook for entrepreneurs and if there was, I likely would not have read it. My playbook is to talk to other successful entrepreneurs about how it felt along the way, especially at key inflection points of their businesses…

  • Bloomberg Pulling ‘Suggested List’ of Stocktwits

    Howard Lindzon
    16 Nov 2009 | 7:48 am
    It’s a big day for Stocktwits as a farm system of talent in the financial world. From our blog: Professional traders who use the Bloomberg terminal to monitor markets and news can now get access each day to a selection of some of the best tweets from StockTwits. Bloomberg is well known for its News division, but the terminal also aggregates thousands of other sources pulled from RSS feeds of newspapers and Web sites. Investors can filter those by topic categories or companies. The StockTwits Suggested List is a curated list of over 100 of the best traders, analysts and journalists…

  • The NEW NEW Nasdaq

    Howard Lindzon
    15 Nov 2009 | 6:20 am
    I don’t trust Cisco or John Chambers, I think Ballmer is a putz, Ebay is Web 1.0, Dell makes microwave ovens, and Craigslist at it’s best is for midget porn. But in the post ‘Financial Leverage’ era, certain companies exist are thriving and accelerating without capital markets. They will continue to benefit from all the ‘Social Leverage’ they both create and immerse themselves in. I call it the NEW NEW Nasdaq. The leaders of the new era will survive beyond their current CEO’s, have surpassed their Y2K bubble peaks, will bounce the fastest after stock…

  • Social MD…The Business

    Howard Lindzon
    10 Nov 2009 | 11:52 pm
    I rarely get asked what business I would start if I had the time and money at my disposal. I get pitched everything under the sun. I have no problem with it, I just can’t possibly get back to everyone in a reasonable timeframe. So if you had the time and believed as I do in Web 4.4187 or Web 2.0, here’s the freebie that I share with anyone who asks: Social MD Think Geek Squad for setting up people’s Social Web profiles and lives. The Social Web is so early that even I am managing to make a living. If that’s the case, Social MD has massive scalability and franchise…

  • Financial Headlines for 2010…

    Howard Lindzon
    10 Nov 2009 | 8:35 am
    AIG will borrow $1 trillion from US government…to pay off the US Government. Goldman Sachs buys New Orleans…Flips to China Dow 50,000…Get IN! Dow 4,000…Get OUT! (same author) Warren Buffett Secret Video…Kicking poor, old people off the Goldman Sachs property You have a funny headline? A Stocktwits Hoodie for the best headline in my comments or on Stocktwits.
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    Information Arbitrage

  • "Social Leverage" in Venture Capital

    Roger Ehrenberg
    12 Nov 2009 | 8:48 am
    I will soon be participating in a panel at Defrag titled "Is Social Leverage the next big thing for VCs?" with my friends Fred Wilson, Howard Lindzon, Brad Feld and Jim Tybur. This is an interesting question that can be interpreted a few different ways, so I thought I'd put a stake in the ground to spur my panel-mates to challenge my perspective.The venture investing business is, without question, a social business. Working with entrepreneurs. Identifying good co-investors and advisers. Plumbing one's rolodex to help make connections. Cultivating potential business development opportunities.

  • Deal With It, Mr. Einhorn

    Roger Ehrenberg
    7 Nov 2009 | 9:32 am
    David Einhorn is without question an exceptionally bright man and a very astute investor. However, the latest message being delivered from his bully pulpit, proposing a ban on credit default swaps (CDS), is misguided at best and dangerous at worst. Are his motives for putting forth this radical view pure, or perhaps informed by the complexity of being an equity investor in a world where the entire capital structure can be sliced, diced and priced? I have no idea. But banning CDSs is akin to banning Twitter. Are there some negative outcomes associated with using each of these tools? Sure. But…

  • Barking Up the Wrong Tree

    Roger Ehrenberg
    6 Nov 2009 | 3:20 pm
    After reading the news, participating in key industry conferences and doing some thinking, I've come to the following conclusion: the regulators - and Congress - are barking up the wrong tree. They would have you believe that the equity markets are rigged, retail investors are screwed and that the market structure is flawed. They would further argue that the equity markets are in need of dramatic new regulation, flash orders and high frequency trading are the root of all evil and that "dark pools" are something promulgated by Darth Vader. I have only two words to say to Congress, the SEC and…

  • Golden Opportunity - I Need a Technical VC Investment Associate

    Roger Ehrenberg
    30 Sep 2009 | 5:46 pm
    I am currently spending a lot of time evaluating companies targeting "big-data," predictive analytics, anomaly detection, machine learning, high-performance computing, data visualization and related fields, and am seeking an Associate to be involved in all stages of the early-stage venture investment process.The successful candidate will be a key member of a small team of highly successful investors and entrepreneurs. This individual will be a highly analytical, innovative and driven self-starter with deep technical experience combined with business judgment. Responsibilities: Create and…

  • Fixing Wall Street? The Feds Blew It.

    Roger Ehrenberg
    2 Aug 2009 | 8:04 pm
    Today's press is constantly filled with bluster about "new" regulatory regimes, Executive Pay Czars and other gripping topics stemming from 20/20 hindsight and populist zeal. Sadly, they all miss the point. Wall Street's weakest link, it's super-leveraged capital structure and reliance on overnight funding, was laid bare in the depths of the financial crisis last fall. If not for the wide-open purse strings of the US Government, institutions ranging from Citigroup to Goldman Sachs would have gone down. No doubt. This was the moment in history when smart minds could have gotten together and…
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    Franconomics

  • Podcast on Macroeconomy from FRANCONOMICS.COM - 2009 November 17th

    Sam Mishra
    17 Nov 2009 | 2:35 am
    This is an irregular podcast on Nov 17, 2009 from FRANCONOMICS.COM. Is the recession actually over in America? Where is the positive proof that there will not be another quarter over quarter downturn in the GDP? By all projections, unemployment will hit 11% officially... The star-studded journalists keep championing Capitalism. Capitalism has become synonymous with some elites, including these journalists, pocketing millions and millions and millions --- this elite group includes executives from banks to auto companies like GM who run their businesses to bankruptcies --- and who bails these…

  • 6 November, 2009 - Black Friday Podcast from FRANCONOMICS.COM

    Sam Mishra
    6 Nov 2009 | 8:35 pm
    This is an irregular podcast on the eve of Black Friday, when unemployment officially went past 10%. Officially, it is now at 10.2%, even as pundits keep saying that the economy is out of the recession. In this episode, we look at the marketplace with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing back and staying above 10,000. A lot of this podcast is educational, and we throw light on conservative investment strategies like writing covered calls, selling into the stock market rallies, monitoring other investment instruments like gold, etc. We also analyze real-estate prices in two locations: SFO…

  • 11 October, 2009 - Irregular Podcast from FRANCONOMICS.COM

    Sam Mishra
    11 Oct 2009 | 4:45 am
    In this irregular podcast dated October 11th, 2009, we introduce new Congressional hearings and other relevant sound bites (including the barely audible TARP COP report for the month of October by Elizabeth Warren), interspersed with the FRANCONOMICS.COM analysis: 1. US has gone from being the largest Creditor to become the largest Debtor Nation, with National Debt well over of $11 trillion --- part of it is of course in TARP / TALF / pPiP which bailed out a few thousand Wall Street bankers at the cost of 300 million Americans. Do we need SIGNIFICANT CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM? 2. Federal…

  • FRANCONOMICS.COM Irregular Podcast - 23rd September, 2009

    Sam Mishra
    23 Sep 2009 | 2:00 pm
    In this irregular podcast dated September 23rd, 2009, we introduce and analyze the following sound bites / dialogues: 1. Secretary Geithner defending ex-Goldman CEOs / employees working for the US Treasury as deeply honorable men. He also claims that the jobs all these ex-Goldman employees did was complex, for it required complex negotiations with banks etc. However, it is common sense (and also there is great public mistrust) that these folks would not (and did not) take the side of Main Street. Certainly, from our prior podcasts where we have quoted Congressmen ripping Hank Paulson apart on…

  • Podcast - 18th Sep 2009 - FRANCONOMICS.COM

    Sam Mishra
    18 Sep 2009 | 9:00 am
    In this irregular podcast dated September 18th, 2009, we introduce and analyze the following sound bites / dialogues: 1. A lady asking Larry Summers about regulating these banks who have returned the money fast so that they could escape the comp czar, and Summers' response. 2. TARP COP (Congress Oversight Panel) Chairwoman quizzing Secretary Geithner about the conversations between the AIG counterparties (like Goldman Sachs, though the name is not explicitly mentioned in her questioning) and the US Treasury prior to the AIG bailout...Geithner responds that it was more complex than just…
 
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    The investment blog on Post

  • ITC's Fortune has great competition

    18 Nov 2009 | 8:42 am
    The 26/11 hit Taj Hotels have two brands competing with ITC's Fortune and others in the mid-market segments like the Quality Inn. However Only Fortune and Taj's Gateway have plans to be in the Tier II towns dotting the country's landscape like the pilgrim towns and those with significant merchant trade. The Taj Gateway for example wants to add 30 new hotels by 2015 in locations like Jalandhar, Mysore, Raipur and Gondia ( Mint - November 18 )  The answer is not that simple however. The available accommodation would definitely make a profitable niche but will not reduce the shortage…

  • The new Marriott partner

    9 Nov 2009 | 8:18 am
    As told to UTV today (yup the one with Bloo..before it) New Leisure properties for phoenix count to 4, not less Marriotts for a measly INR 340 Crores. It is definitely a great sign for India's challenged 5-star infrastructure with Nitesh and other such mid tier players like Parsvnath seemingly here to stay on the scene. Marriott now adds properties in Agra and Mumbai in sharing with Phoenix. Phoenix Mills was a great turnaround story of India's new Lifestyle Economy with one of the first conversions of old mill compounds to modern mall and office space. The Indian Leisure and Lifestyle…

  • The October rise in AUMs | Advantage zyaada

    9 Nov 2009 | 3:54 am
    The Data is courtesy the amfiindia.com site of AMFIOctober turned out to be buoyant for the entire economy with retail and auto sectors reporting a 30% + uptick in sales and mutual funds also adding a neat INR 20000 Crores or $4.33 billion. However individual fortunes were mixed as some fund houses managed to lose in Assets under management in the cracker season. UTI MF grew further by INR 3260 Crores or $720 million, and even Tata MF growing by INR 2500 Crores or $550 million. A small player like Kotak grew its corpus by INR 1350 Crores or $ 300 million. It is definitely a market whose time…

  • Busy Season Credit Policy | Advantage zyaada

    27 Oct 2009 | 12:10 am
    I hate writing influencing stuff for these 'namakool' government people..a true laissez faire capitalist as bollywood would say today - but much as I like to disappoint wooden leg intelligentia (sorry Saugata, not you) and unfortunate colleagues who cannot see the depth and incisiveness of my decisions ( only some times, as most of my followers and poachers would attest from the last 15-20 years, i have quite some intellectual property when it comes to establishing the kingdom's fine traits and setting up the next wins.  Well, this introduction is probably embedded into my names and…

  • 20 Tweets from Friday - Part Deux | zyakaira

    18 Sep 2009 | 9:49 am
    Rural Distrbn: Current FDI limits / Foreign Investment limits of 20% / 49% in DTH may go up to allow foreign media investors to catch upabout 6 hours ago from HootSuiteUnitech Telenor has revised capital participation terms putting responsibility on Telenor to fund all expansion, ready with 8500 towers..about 6 hours ago from HootSuiteNew Islamic Bank Al Baraka to take off in Kerala based on Shariat principle of Bai al salam, distribution of profit and est of a social fundabout 7 hours ago from HootSuiteChina's bear trend unlikely to be braked but may recover…
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    Economic Principals

  • Sound Familiar?

    admin
    15 Nov 2009 | 1:22 pm
    A prominent American working as adviser to a foreign government successfully bargains for the details of a new constitution – while quietly arranging a lucrative deal for himself with a foreign company operating in his client state under the new laws. He is exposed and suffers profound embarrassment. Sound familiar? Yes, it’s a little like what happened in 1996, when Andrei Shleifer’s wife received the first license to offer mutual funds in Russia, at a time when the Harvard University economist was advising the Russian government on behalf of the US State Department. The entire Harvard…

  • Long Before Berlin

    admin
    8 Nov 2009 | 9:09 am
    Long before the Berlin Wall came down, there was May Day in New York.  In the flow of history these last forty years or so there have been many other signposts. But it is May 1, 1975, that stands out in memory as a moment in which it became clear that things were changing in a certain way. That was when the Securities and Exchange Commission ended the New York Stock Exchange’s 180-year-old monopoly on corporate control, eliminating its authority to fix commissions in securities transactions.Although I barely understood it at the time, this accelerated the demise of the old WASP…

  • What The Woman Lived

    admin
    1 Nov 2009 | 2:00 pm
    Elinor Ostrom’s Nobel Prize raised an interesting question. Who’s the most famous female economist in the profession today? Ostrom’s influence, via her field work on informal governing coalitions, had been greatest among political scientists. She was not among the worthies (Ronald Coase, Douglass North, Oliver Williamson) who founded the International Society for New Institutional Economics. Indeed, most economists had never heard of her before last month. So who is the most widely read woman in the profession? Susan Athey, of Harvard University, the first woman to win the Clark Medal?

  • How Can We Miss It When It Never Went Away?

    admin
    25 Oct 2009 | 4:14 pm
    When the World Trade Organization negotiations broke down in July 2008, the global financial crisis was so quickly upon us – October panic, bailout, US election, stimulus package – that it’s easy to forget that the Doha Round didn’t end after seven years, it simply took a break. It’s still out there, zombie-like, waiting to be recalled to life, to resume generating attention-numbing headlines. Now US-China relations are beginning to dominate the news: China powering out of its slump, China celebrating the sixtieth anniversary of its revolution with military displays, China investing…

  • The Student of Working Together

    admin
    18 Oct 2009 | 1:59 pm
    Who owns the Nobel Prize in economics? A basis for an answer to that question appeared last week, when the Nobel Committee opened the door to a capacious new wing of economic research, citing political scientist Elinor Ostrom, of Indiana University, for her investigations of how ordinary citizens solve problems that arise when sharing common resources (and sometimes fail to solve them). Over a forty-year research career, Ostrom, 76, has studied everything from the harvest of fish in the seaand grazing rights in alpine meadows, to patterns of police law enforcement and the creation of private…
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    Marginal Revolution

  • Badges? We don't need no stinkin badges.

    Alex Tabarrok
    20 Nov 2009 | 2:14 pm
    In pursuit of an Eagle Scout badge, Kevin Anderson, 17, has toiled for more than 200 hours hours over several weeks to clear a walking path in an east Allentown park.Little did the do-gooder know that his altruistic act would put him in the cross hairs of the city's largest municipal union.Nick Balzano, president of the local Service Employees International Union, told Allentown City Council Tuesday that the union is considering filing a grievance against the city for allowing Anderson to clear a 1,000-foot walking and biking path at Kimmets Lock Park."We'll be looking into the…

  • Assorted links, second dose

    Tyler Cowen
    20 Nov 2009 | 10:11 am
    1. Air Genius Gary Leff is hailed by CNN.2. Good post on interest rates (though I am not sure I agree with it).  Brad DeLong comments.  Critically important stuff and two of the best recent economics blog posts, in some time.3. The world's first native Klingon speaker?4. Spider silk tapestry.5. Via Yana, France's hamster hotel, and here.

  • Markets in everything?

    Tyler Cowen
    20 Nov 2009 | 6:49 am
    A gang in the remote Peruvian jungle has been killing people for their fat, the police said Thursday, accusing the gang’s members of draining fat from bodies and selling it on the black market for use in cosmetics...Three suspects have confessed to killing five people for their fat, said Col. Jorge Mejía, chief of Peru’s anti-kidnapping police. He said the suspects, two of whom were arrested carrying bottles of liquid fat, told the police it was worth $60,000 a gallon.Colonel Mejía said the suspects had told the police that the fat had been sold to intermediaries in Lima, the capital.

  • Assorted links

    Tyler Cowen
    20 Nov 2009 | 4:08 am
    1. How much will U.S. taxes ever go up? 2. Useful lateral thinking and how it is described by the lateral thinker.3. The biological bases of business and entrepreneurship.4. One hour show with me in Second Life; they even did up a Tyler Cowen avatar.  Other shows are here, including economist Robert Frank and libertarian Adam Thierer.5. Matt Kahn on "cash for caulkers".6. The new AEA calendar of economists.  To whet your appetite, here is a photo of Francis Ysidro Edgeworth.

  • *The Unincorporated Man* and slavery

    Tyler Cowen
    20 Nov 2009 | 3:59 am
    As long as we are on the topic of slavery, why not consider fiction?  This science fiction novel has an intriguing economic premise: you're born a slave and you're not free until you can buy yourself back from your owner (which may be a corporation).It may sound funny to think that a slave can save money but arguably an optimal slavery contract in a high-productivity society will give the slave some residual claimancy and some property rights, in order to spur work effort.At some point you wonder whether a slave in this futuristic society is better off buying the rights to…
 
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    Grasping Reality with Both Hands

  • Look at the Laptops...

    Brad DeLong
    20 Nov 2009 | 3:03 pm
    Microsoft runs a Windows Mobile event: Windows Phone Thoughts: Mobius 2009: Fascinating, But Little That Can Be Shared: Not quite you expect to see at Redmond, is it?

  • Naughty, Naughty, Peter Orszag...

    Brad DeLong
    20 Nov 2009 | 2:41 pm
    Peter Orszag writes: STATEMENT OF ADMINISTRATION POLICY: H.R. 3961 — Medicare Physician Payment Reform Act of 2009 (Rep. Dingell, D-Michigan, and 6 cosponsors): The Administration strongly supports House passage of H.R. 3961, the Medicare Physician Payment Reform Act of 2009, and appreciates congressional efforts to ensure that Medicare beneficiaries and TRICARE patients continue to have access to care and their physician of choice. In his FY 2010 Budget, the President recognized the need for comprehensive reform for the Medicare physician payment system. The Administration believes…

  • The Financial Times Has Nine Times the Quality of U.S. Newspapers

    Brad DeLong
    20 Nov 2009 | 2:30 pm
    So says John Judis. He does, however, tell one thing that I think is a lie: that the New York Times and the Washington Post "have their strengths in foreign news." In my opinion, the two of them together don't have "strengths." Rather, they collectively have one strength: Anthony Shadeed. Otherwise--well, what's new to me in them has a less than 50-50 chance of being true, and what's true in them has a less than 50-50 chance of being news to me. But the rest of it is good. John Judis: Obama In Seoul: My Problem With Foreign News: [T]his morning... I tried to read the stories about Barack…

  • The Puzzles of American Political Economy Today

    Brad DeLong
    20 Nov 2009 | 10:17 am
    Three points to serve as background: First of all, from the day after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the policies followed by the U.S. Treasury and the U.S. Federal Reserve and the U.S. administrations have been very helpful. They have been good ones. The alternative--standing back and watching the markets deal with the situation--would have gotten us a much higher unemployment rate than we have now. Credit easing by the Fed and support of the banking system by the Fed and the Treasury have significantly helped the economy: have kept things from getting much worse. Second, the fact that…

  • What the U.S. Long Bond Market Is Telling Us...

    Brad DeLong
    20 Nov 2009 | 10:02 am
    Paul Krugman reads the tea leaves in what looks like the best piece of economic analysis I have read this month. When we do the things we do well, this is the kind of thing we do: Interest rates: the phantom menace: From various bat squeaks I’ve put together a view of what I think lies behind the surprising — and damaging — deficit squeamishness of the Obama administration. So here’s what I think they’re thinking.... On the face of it, there’s no reason to be worried about interest rates on US debt. Despite large deficits, the Federal government is able to…
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    EconomyStory

  • Tackling tuition

    Laura Hertzfeld
    20 Nov 2009 | 7:10 am
    Here in California, education has been making headlines this week, as the University of California board of regents voted to increase tuition more than 30%. And California is hardly alone. Across the country, education is being affected by the recession. In New Hampshire, some students are facing a subprime loan crisis much like the housing one – except this time it’s loans to help cover rising tuition costs of higher education. “In many cases private student loans come with variable interest rates that can top twenty percent. In addition, a number of recent graduates contend that the…

  • The costs of climate change

    Laura Hertzfeld
    19 Nov 2009 | 12:33 pm
    In early December, Copenhagen will play host to the UN Conference on Climate Change, where world leaders will gather to work on agreement to reduce emissions and slow the effects of global warming. What are the Copenhagen talks? Cartoon essayist for Twin Cities Public Television David Gillette will be there, and here he explains why: It almost goes with out saying that climate change and the global economy are intimately linked. As Marketplace reports in the series The Climate Race, countries like China are already coming up with ways to profit from climate change technology. “If carbon…

  • Pre-order your derivative today!

    Laura Hertzfeld
    18 Nov 2009 | 11:10 am
    Marketplace Senior Editor Paddy Hirsch describes on his personal blog this week how by pre-ordering your Thanksgiving turkey you’re actually buying a derivative. Here’s his Whiteboard explainer on how derivatives work:

  • Hitting the road

    Laura Hertzfeld
    16 Nov 2009 | 2:30 pm
    We’ve written before about WNYC’s Your Uncommon Economic Indicators (YUEI for lack of a better term!) project, which asks listeners to send in videos, stories, and photos showing how the economic downturn is being seen on a street-by-street level. This is just one of several projects mapping the economy, but now the technology behind YUEI is available for individuals and stations. WNYC’s John Keefe explains in this video: A new photo essay project from Michigan Public Radio takes us through home foreclosures across the state, including interviews with contributors. In one of the…

  • One house, one town, one lecture

    Laura Hertzfeld
    13 Nov 2009 | 12:27 pm
    A new film about the real estate crash, the story of a farm town in Montana, and a lecture about the cultures of the Great Depression all give very different but very clear pictures of the economy and how we got here — then and now. The new feature-length documentary from filmmaker Leslie Cockburn was recently discussed on the Economy Project blog at the University of Missouri. But the film doesn’t focus on casinos like the ones in Las Vegas. Instead, this film looks at the entire economy as one American casino – the idea that the finance industry was gambling with peoples’ homes…
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    Bank-O-meter

  • Bank Failure

    20 Nov 2009 | 5:32 pm
    The over/under on bank failures is 4; if you picked under, you are apparently a winner. Commerce Bank of Southwest Florida falls to Central Bank. What exactly is the connection between a Stillwater Minnesota bank and a Fort Myers Florida bank? Deductible business trips, baby (all winter long). The incredible recovery continues with 9 bank failures so far in the month of November. I’m counting on the after-Christmas Commercial Real Estate Collapse to really spike the bank failure Friday.

  • Lloyd's Prayer

    20 Nov 2009 | 9:47 am
    This one came from Richard Ambrose and it’s worth repeating. THE LLOYD’s Prayer Our Chairman, Who Art At Goldman, Blankfein Be Thy Name. The Rally’s Come. God’s Work Be Done On Earth As There’s No Fear Of Correction. Give Us This Day Our Daily Gains, And Bankrupt Our Competitors As You Taught Lehman and Bear Their Lessons. And Bring Us Not Under Indictment. For Thine Is The Treasury, The House And The Senate Forever and Ever. Goldman.

  • Tax Cheats Get Amnesty

    18 Nov 2009 | 12:00 pm
    The US sued UBS to get the names of tax cheats. UBS fought for a while, then relented and agreed to turn over more than 4,450 names. The US government then offered amnesty to tax cheats who agreed to confess their sins and pay their fines – 14,700 took advantage.The IRS says most of the tax cheats were in Switzerland and Europe, but now they will open offices in Asia and elsewhere to continue their hunt. Meanwhile, the names that UBS is going to turn over have been doing bad things. UBS says 4,200 of those accounts involved “advanced and serious fraud” and 250 involved lesser offenses,…

  • Bernanke is an Idiot

    17 Nov 2009 | 10:15 am
    Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking to the Economic Club of New York, "We are attentive to implications of changes in the value of the dollar and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks to our dual mandate to foster both maximum employment and price stability."

  • Bank Failures

    13 Nov 2009 | 4:25 pm
    The over under for Friday the 13th is 4. We start the festivities in Florida. IBERIABANK gets a two-fer – Century Bank in Sarasota and Orion Bank in Naples – and Spain reclaims a chunk of Florida. Actually, IBERIA (all caps, very aggressive) is based out of Louisiana. The good people of San Clemente, California, won’t have Pacific Coast National to kick around anymore. ** More updates as requires
 
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    About.com: US Economy

  • Where Are Toxic Assets Now?

    19 Nov 2009 | 12:46 pm
    A reader recently asked "What happened to the $1 -2 trillion in "toxic assets" that caused the Great Recession?" Toxic assets are primarily foreclosed mortgages that are sitting on banks' balance sheets, waiting to be written off as losses.This is a great question, as these assets are the debris clogging up the bank lending pipeline. Last year the Federal Reserve started the TALF (Toxic Asset Loan Fund) program to buy back this debt. This year, the Treasury Dept. launched the Stability Initiative Program. This created the PPIP, or Public Private Investment Partnership to encourage banks to…

  • Eat at Home

    18 Nov 2009 | 2:47 am
    In October, grocery bills were down 2.8% from last year, while restaurant prices went up 2.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). September and October were the first times in 40 years that food prices benefited from deflation. Overall, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was down .2% since last year, largely due to a 14% drop in energy prices (Yay!). Inflation continues in health care, which is 3.2% higher than last year. (Source: BLS Consumer Price Index: August 2009) Read more...Eat at Home originally appeared on About.com US Economy on Wednesday, November 18th, 2009 at…

  • Americans' Love Affair With Credit Is Over

    16 Nov 2009 | 2:09 pm
    Credit card use in America continues to drop like at an unprecedented rate. In September, credit card debt, dropped 13% again, after falling 13% in August. The nine-month decline is the most since the Federal Reserve began keeping records. The falloff is a result of continued high unemployment and tightened bank lending standards. In addition, credit card delinquency rates are rising, according to Lowcards.com. Even with the drop-off, consumers still owe $889.4 billion, or $7,537 per household. (Source: Federal Reserve, G.19 Release, November 7, 2009) Read more...Americans' Love Affair With…

  • Recession Over? No Way!

    10 Nov 2009 | 11:29 pm
    For most people, the recession is not over - even though government statistics say they are. As put so well by Jim Wygand, Principal Partner at Critical Corporate Issues, an international risk management consultancy, The recession is over - the suffering is not. "Recession" is nothing more than a technical term that clicks in when two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth are recorded. Meanwhile millions of Americans are going through what Allen is experiencing. (Click here to see Allen's comments.)So in a social sense, for Allen and millions of others neither the recession nor the…

  • Where Will the Jobs Come From?

    9 Nov 2009 | 12:52 pm
    A reader suggested that we buy locally to create local jobs. He calculated that 200 people spending $20 a week would create 1 job at $12 per hour. I don't know if it would work, but it shows the kind of creative, out of the box thinking that is needed to move this economy forward. Read more...Where Will the Jobs Come From? originally appeared on About.com US Economy on Monday, November 9th, 2009 at 20:52:31.Permalink | Comment | Email this
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    Economix

  • EconoQuiz Results

    By R.M. SCHNEIDERMAN
    20 Nov 2009 | 4:25 pm
    Answers to our quiz on economic issues in the news, and the names of the readers who got the highest scores.

  • What We're Reading ...

    By R.M. SCHNEIDERMAN
    20 Nov 2009 | 1:47 pm
    Visualizing the decline of empires and other economics coverage from around the Web.

  • Bernanke's Confirmation Hearing Scheduled

    By EDMUND L. ANDREWS
    20 Nov 2009 | 1:25 pm
    Ben S. Bernanke has finally been scheduled for confirmation hearing for a second four-year term as Federal Reserve chairman.

  • Michigan Again Has Highest Jobless Rate

    By CATHERINE RAMPELL
    20 Nov 2009 | 9:42 am
    Fourteen states and the District of Columbia had a least a tenth of their labor force unemployed in October.

  • EconoQuiz

    By R.M. SCHNEIDERMAN
    20 Nov 2009 | 9:05 am
    A quiz on economic issues in the news.
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    iMFdirect

  • The Health Care Challenge: Not Just a U.S. Problem

    iMFdirect
    20 Nov 2009 | 1:55 pm
    By Carlo Cottarelli Health spending in OECD countries increased from 4½ percent of GDP in 1960 to 12½ percent in 2007 (see Figure 1 below). What accounts for this dramatic increase? Income growth, insurance, demographics, and technological change all contributed,but the latter was the key driver. Public spending for health care also increased sharply (by 5½ percentage points of GDP) during this period (see Figure 2). What about the future? The impact of demographics is reasonably easy to predict, and aging, by itself, will not cause health spending to explode. Other demand-side…

  • Balancing Fiscal Support with Fiscal Solvency

    iMFdirect
    18 Nov 2009 | 12:11 pm
    By Carlo Cottarelli As I noted in my last post, government deficits in many countries—particularly in advanced countries—have jumped dramatically in the wake of the global crisis, and government debt has reached levels that could jeopardize longer term macroeconomic stability and growth. These countries will need to tighten fiscal policy significantly sometime down the road, especially where demographic trends are pushing up health and pension spending. But fiscal deficits cannot be lowered in the immediate future. For the time being, fiscal (and monetary) policies must continue to…

  • Post-Crisis: What Should Be the Goal of a Fiscal Exit Strategy?

    iMFdirect
    16 Nov 2009 | 12:30 pm
    By Carlo Cottarelli One obvious fallout of the global financial crisis is a huge deterioration in fiscal conditions, particularly in advanced countries. The numbers are nothing short of staggering. Gross general government debt in the G-20 advanced economies is projected to approach 120 percent of GDP by 2014, up from about 80 percent in 2007, and this is even assuming no renewal of fiscal stimulus beyond 2010. Some might think that this comes from an “exotic” form of fiscal policy whereby governments opened their coffers to prop up financial institutions. But only a small part of this…

  • Asia and the IMF: Toward a Deeper Engagement

    iMFdirect
    12 Nov 2009 | 6:13 am
    Update: IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn delivered speeches in both Singapore and Beijing In Singapore he spoke of a leadership role for Asia, while in Beijing he addressed how China is leading the world out of recession and the need for further reform of China’s dynamic economy. By Anoop Singh Asia’s standing and influence continues to grow and the IMF is working with the region to help it meet its full economic potential as it recovers from the global crisis.  In mid-November, the  Managing Director of the IMF, Dominique Strauss-Kahn,  begins a six-day trip to Asia.

  • Asia’s Corporate Saving Mystery

    iMFdirect
    8 Nov 2009 | 1:29 pm
    By Anoop Singh As Asia starts down the path to recovery, it is going to have to tackle two issues which are constraining its long-term growth potential: firms that save but do not invest and wealthy households that are reluctant to consume. At first glance, such behavior seems inexplicable and counter-intuitive.  Let’s imagine for a moment you are an investor—you may well be— you put quite a bit of money into a company to back its expansion plans. Initially, these plans prove successful, and the company makes quite a bit of money. But then the firm ran out of investment ideas. What…
 
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    EconomicPolicyJournal.com

  • A Few Points on Elizabeth Warren's Phony War On Bank Credit Card Leagalese

    Robert Wenzel
    20 Nov 2009 | 11:07 am
    Bloomberg has a profile out on Elizabeth Warren that among other things provides the news that in addition to her day job at Harvard, she has been paid $114,733.04 through Sept. 30 for her TARP oversight role from where she stands on her soapbox and promises to make bank regulation even more complicated than it is, so only Harvard lawyers, like herself, hired by the likes of Goldman Sachs will

  • A Hunger Strike at the Fed?

    Robert Wenzel
    20 Nov 2009 | 10:38 am
    In freezing cold January?The chair of a Florida-based minority rights group is threatening to go on a hunger strike at the Fed in January to protest the way the Fed enforces community reinvestment and fair-lending laws, WSJ reports.“Because of your continue lack of willingness to come to Florida and hear our cries, I have no choice but to challenge you until you do so,” Al Pina, chairman of the

  • Peter Schiff Tells Over 1000 Mortgage Brokers They Are About to be Out of Jobs

    Robert Wenzel
    20 Nov 2009 | 10:17 am
    Schiff nails it in 2006. I mean he nails it:(ViaLoanSafe.org)

  • Fitch Warns on 'Record' French Debt

    Robert Wenzel
    20 Nov 2009 | 9:53 am
    France has ditched the "Happiness Index", but this doesn't mean they aren't economically mad."Having entered the global crisis with one of the highest public debt to GDP ratios among 'AAA' sovereigns, France is now expected to record a debt ratio above 85pc at the end 2010, higher than projected for Germany or the UK," reports the credit rating agency, Fitch.France's plan to shovel €35bn at

  • Unemployment Climbs to 10.2%, Washington DC Shows 52 Week Gain in Employment

    Robert Wenzel
    20 Nov 2009 | 9:13 am
    If you need evidence government is ballooning out of control, while the rest of the country sinks, look no further than the Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment numbers put out today. Over the last 52 weeks, nonfarm employment decreased in all 50 states and increased only in Washington D.C. (Note the unemployment percentage is climbing in D.C., but that's because more are moving here to get on
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    CapitalistMarks

  • Weak Dollar? Jeez Louise!

    scott
    16 Nov 2009 | 11:38 am
    A recent Time article was titled “The Dollar in Danger” and of course I read it.  Magazines use all kind of gimicks to get you to read them.  Frothy headlines, tantalizing covers, stories that upset . . . you get the idea.  With all the magazines I read they rarely tempt anymore . . . I normally ‘quick’ read to see if there is anything real in the article and if not skip on to the next. This one I read.  I am not going to rate it but I will say that the headline caught me and the story was one I would not attribute to an economist. Let me set the record straight.

  • Autumn economics: the leaves of confidence fall. HOPE!

    scott
    13 Nov 2009 | 9:54 am
    In my yard all the leaves have fallen.  There are red, yellow and even a few green leaves decorating my lawn.  I will take the time to clean them up, but first I am determined to go shopping (caveat: my wife usually tells me when I am determined to go shopping). Apparently I am one of only a few that feels this way. The preliminary consumer confidence number is out — 66 — lower than 71 expected by the average economist (a frightening prospect since no economist I have ever met is average.)  This 66 is lower than the 70.6 for October.  A decline in consumer confidence is…

  • The real unemployment numbers!

    scott
    9 Nov 2009 | 11:52 am
    Friday unemployment numbers for October were released.  Politicians, media ‘experts’  and economists thought they were acceptable considering existing conditions.  For me they represent circumstances that are far worse than  public figures are willing to admit. Here is the reality: Factories closed.  Warehouses shut down.  Homes in foreclosure.  And more. Unemployment at 10.2%.  That means nearly 16 million Americans are unemployed (the highest in history).  Add to that those who have quit looking or have taken part-time or low paying  jobs and the percentage soars to…

  • The Senate greases their re-election with unemployment!

    scott
    5 Nov 2009 | 5:38 pm
    Of course you have heard that this week the Senate (asleep at the wheel again)  passed a bill providing for extension of unemployment compensation.  No one should be surprised.  Billions of $$ down the drain . . . that is how I feel about it.  And, of course, yet another reason for term limits. The details aren’t all that important to most of us — including the 15,000,000 unemployed — because while the bill shows some elements of ’sensitivity’ to the problem it isn’t for charity’s sake but rather to keep the Senators who are running for office…

  • Stock market volatility is increasing. Huh?

    scott
    2 Nov 2009 | 6:27 pm
    Lately the volatility of  markets is increasing.  This includes the equities markets as well as the primary energy markets (oil and gas).  Sadly we have become so used to hearing about this that is just goes in one ear and out the other. I think we need to make sense of of this most recent trend in volatility and I will try to help you with this. First of all what does volatility mean?  The easiest answer is that it refers to the wild (big) swings, both up and down, of the markets on a daily basis.  As an example, it is clear that in the last few days the DOW has been quite volatile. …
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    Free Market Mojo

  • Union Vs. Boy Scouts

    Ariel Goldring
    20 Nov 2009 | 3:01 pm
    From The Morning Call: In pursuit of an Eagle Scout badge, Kevin Anderson, 17, has toiled for more than 200 hours hours over several weeks to clear a walking path in an east Allentown park. Little did the do-gooder know that his altruistic act would put him in the cross hairs of the city’s largest municipal union. Nick Balzano, president of the local Service Employees International Union, told Allentown City Council Tuesday that the union is considering filing a grievance against the city for allowing Anderson to clear a 1,000-foot walking and biking path at Kimmets Lock Park.

  • Study: Males more generous than females

    Ariel Goldring
    20 Nov 2009 | 10:33 am
    Pablo Brañas-Garza, Juan-Camilo Cardenas, and Maximo Rossi have new paper on gender, education and reciprocal generosity: There is not general consensus about if women are more or less generous than men. Although the number of papers supporting more generous females is a bit larger than the opposed it is not possible to establish any definitive and systematic gender bias. This paper provides new evidence on this topic using a unique experimental dataset. We used data from a field experiment conducted under identical conditions (and monetary payoffs) in 6 Latin American cities, Bogotá,…

  • Chávez Wants a New ‘Socialist-Friendly’ Economic Gauge

    Ariel Goldring
    20 Nov 2009 | 7:33 am
    Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez didn’t appreciate the recently released data that showed the Venezuelan economy has slipped into a recession. So what’s a Socialist leader to do? Create a new economic gauge, one that is “Socialist-friendly.” “We simply can’t permit that they continue calculating GDP with the old capitalist method,” President Chávez said during a televised speech to members of his party Wednesday night. “It’s harmful,” he added. So what caused Mr. Chávez’s deep displeasure? For one, new data showed…

  • No such thing as a bad tax cut… is there?

    Bevan Sabo
    20 Nov 2009 | 7:25 am
    Don Boudreaux of Cafe Hayek points out an interesting paragraph from a 2005 CBO study: The resulting [tax] rate on equity-financed corporate capital income is 36.1 percent and that on debt-financed corporate capital income is -6.4 percent, a difference of 42.5 percentage points. The rate on equity-financed corporate capital income is higher than the statutory corporate tax rate because of the extra tax imposed on dividends and capital gains at the individual level. Obviously, this will steer corporations towards debt financing over equity financing. Some quick definitions: equity financing is…

  • Jamaica vs. Singapore

    Ariel Goldring
    20 Nov 2009 | 5:17 am
    In the Journal of the American Enterprise Institute, Josh Lerner writes: To understand their importance, we can contrast Jamaica and Singapore. Both are relatively tiny states, with under 5 million residents apiece. Upon Singapore’s independence in 1965—three years after Jamaica’s own establishment as a nation—the two nations were about equal in wealth: the gross domestic product (in 2006 U.S. dollars) was $2,850 per person in Jamaica, slightly higher than Singapore’s $2,650. Both nations had a centrally located port, a tradition of British colonial rule, and governments with a…
 
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    Beyond the Cave

  • Risky Real-Time

    19 Nov 2009 | 8:11 pm
    The real-time web refers a broad set of Internet-based services that enable instant digital communication. Some elements of the real time web have existed for a while now - e.g. real-time one-to-one and few-to-few forms of communication such as Instant Messaging and Chat. But over the past couple of years the Internet has experienced the quick proliferation of one-to-many real-time communication - i.e. Facebook, Twitter, etc. Along with digital communication, digital goods have also enabled real-time transactions. iTunes is the prime example of a real-time commerce application where a quick…

  • The Holiday Party

    18 Nov 2009 | 8:08 pm
    Holiday parties are a tradition for North American firms. Every year, all employees and their "+1" enjoy eating bad food and consuming free alcohol. The setting is usually tacky but the mood is always cheerful.These parties are sometimes extravagant but have recently taken a humbling hit during these recessionary times. I believe that it is a mistake to cancel the annual holiday party. These events are more than just a reward for a year of success - the parties serve to humanize all layers of an organization. There is something both empowering and communal about seeing one's boss drink a beer…

  • The Bow of The Future

    17 Nov 2009 | 8:31 pm
    I was struck by the image of our President, Barack Obama, bowing to the Japanese Emperor during a recent visit to Japan. It was strange to see the most powerful man in the world show such an extreme gesture. President Barack Obama bows while being greeted by Japanese Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko, Source: AP via Politico.comAt first, I wasn't happy about this prominent sign of potential weakness. Should our President ever bow to anyone? Does this weaken America's position in the world in some way? But as I kept looking at the exquisitely expressive image I realized that weakness was…

  • Don't Unfriend Me

    16 Nov 2009 | 8:11 pm
    "Unfriend" was declared to be the word of the year by the New Oxford American Dictionary. The word means to disconnect a link to someone within a social networking setting.Most discussion on this matter has focused on the merit of the word - i.e. if it is valuable enough to be added to a serious dictionary and thus near-permanently inserted into the English language. But I take this debate to be moot. The word exists and it is widely used. It's hard to predict the future, but for now it is an important concept.What intrigues me is the underlying reality that unfriend establishes. It depicts a…

  • Car Shopping

    15 Nov 2009 | 8:21 pm
    I had the "pleasure" of shopping for a car this weekend. Although the stereotype of dealing with the (used) car salesman is somewhat overblown, it is still a pretty accurate depiction of what to expect.Car dealership ads are still very much misleading and are meant to purely bring the buyer through the front door. Financial "details" in these ads can be molded to fit most desired realities. When dealing with the salesman, actual lying never takes place. Important facts that could diminish the value of a particular car are not mentioned, skimmed over, or left to be interpreted by the…
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    American Madness

  • The Boat That Rocked

    Jason Ihle
    18 Nov 2009 | 5:41 am
    *This review is based on the European release of this film which runs 2 hours and 5 minutes. The film has reportedly been re-edited for the American release following criticism of its length in the UK. Don’t be fooled by the way Pirate Radio has been advertised in the US. Philip Seymour Hoffman’s character is not [...]

  • The Abortion Debate and the Health Care Bills

    Joel Friedlander
    12 Nov 2009 | 1:53 pm
    I am frankly sick of the pro abortion lobby intentionally distorting the position of most Americans on the issue of abortion. In today NY Times, Kate Michelman and Frances Kissling wrote that, “House Democrats voted to expand the current ban on public financing for abortion and to effectively prohibit women who participate in the [...]

  • Solving New York State’s Fiscal Crisis

    Joel Friedlander
    9 Nov 2009 | 4:40 pm
    The Governor is going to propose once again reducing the expenses of education and cutting medicaid spending. It seems that the engine that ran the State, Wall Street, is no longer paying what it once did. Since we long ago got rid of manufacturing in New York, we now have nothing to replace [...]

  • Movie Review: Whatever Works

    Jason Ihle
    6 Nov 2009 | 2:08 pm
    Woody Allen has worked tirelessly in the last 30 some odd years turning out a new film every year like clockwork. His great period was from the late 70’s into the mid 80’s when he made such classics as Annie Hall, Manhattan, and Radio Days. Through the 90’s he managed to maintain a steady stream [...]

  • Fame!

    Joel Friedlander
    5 Nov 2009 | 3:08 pm
    The Yankees are the Champions of the Baseball World today.  Everyone who follows baseball is excited.  I’m excited for them but they should remember what George C. Scott said at the end of the movie Patton: Patton: [voiceover] For over a thousand years, Roman conquerors returning from the wars enjoyed the honor of a triumph – [...]
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    Charter Cities - Blog

  • Urbanization and the Environment

    Brandon Fuller
    16 Nov 2009 | 12:58 pm
    Our inner-environmentalist tends to romanticize rural settings. Rural areas offer open spaces and direct access to natural amenities. Cities bring to mind concrete, congestion, and pollution. Our inner-preacher counsels penance for our urban sins. People must suffer for wanting a modern lifestyle. Stewart Brand wants us to rethink these pastoral and moralistic instincts. As he explains, one of the best ways to protect the environment is to let the billions of people who live in rural poverty do what they want to do: move to cities.

  • Charter Cities on BBCCaribbean.com

    Brandon Fuller
    5 Nov 2009 | 11:39 am
    “…[P]roposing some new rules [in a charter city] and then asking who would like to opt in—who would like to live under these new rules—could give us a mechanism to reform the rules under which we live, to change them, to improve them much more rapidly.” —Paul Romer (on BBCCaribbean.com) Listen to the BBCCaribbean.com interview and read the related article.

  • Meta-Rules: The Success of Congestion Pricing in Stockholm

    Brandon Fuller
    29 Oct 2009 | 6:09 pm
    Bjorn Harsman and John Quigley describe the success of Stockholm’s congestion pricing referendum in a recent paper. The adoption of congestion pricing there offers an interesting example of a meta-rule: a mechanism for innovation in the space of rules. To change traffic rules there, city officials employed a meta-rule based on the “try before you buy” strategy that firms use to enhance the credibility of their product claims. Instead of committing everyone to a big and permanent change, the officials let residents sample the new traffic rules for themselves during a finite trial period.

  • Housing in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Korea - Richard Green, USC

    Paul Romer
    22 Oct 2009 | 5:08 pm
    Paul Romer: The latest post in our E-seminar series of contributions from economists and other experts comes from Richard Green, Director and Chair of the Lusk Center for Real Estate at USC. Hong Kong, Singapore and Korea experienced great economic success: all have per capita GDP that is at least seven times higher than in 1960 (see Penn World Table for more information). All three economies also came to be relatively well housed. While we cannot draw a uniform lesson from their experiences, it is worthwhile to examine each case for clues about successful housing development.

  • BBC World Service: Global Business

    Brandon Fuller
    22 Oct 2009 | 11:05 am
    “There’s a little corner of economics where there still exists a sense of wonder about what is possible.” —Paul Romer (on BBC World Service’s Global Business) Listen to the Global Business interview. Read program host Peter Day’s comment on the importance of ideas.
 
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    The New Lending System

  • Running Down the Road to Promote Community Development & Better Loan Underwriting

    14 Nov 2009 | 7:37 pm
    I have literally been on the go for the past couple of weeks getting the word out on CCAF in five cities, the last of which was Orlando, where I spent several days attending RMA’s Annual Conference on Risk Management. Loan underwriting was the focus of much of the conversation, together with upcoming regulatory reforms and the economic outlook, at both the national and state levels. Next week finds me headed to South America. So, I wanted to catch-up before too much time passed by to let you know what I am hearing and thinking about! In the community development space, I heard some exciting…

  • CCAF: Driven by Data, Grounded in Reason

    22 Oct 2009 | 3:47 pm
    SAS has been conducting research on analytic frameworks that combine expert judgment with best science. We have observed that effective integration of comprehensive views, especially customer-centric ones, with financial performance and the evolving economic and market realities, offers significant competitive advantages. SAS has actually pioneered a new lending system that, compared with today’s typical loan underwriting systems, is: 1) simpler, yet more accurate, 2) thorough, yet concise, 3) becomes more, not less, predictive over time, and 4) is statistical in nature, yet is transparent…

  • Widening Credit Access Without Taking On Greater Risk: Fact or Fiction?

    19 Oct 2009 | 5:41 pm
    I call fact on that! I am in the process of preparing a keynote address entitled Credit Access And Risk Management: A Gap To Close, for an International Banking Conference sponsored by Asobancaria, Colombia's Banking and Financial Entities Association. The conference will take place in late November in Cartagena, Colombia. During the course of my research on the high cost of being poor in Latin and South America, I learned that it is estimated that perhaps a billion dollars is maintained under mattresses and in cookie jars where it earns no interest and provides no indication of the…

  • Implications of Significant Reduction in Consumer Credit--What to Do?

    12 Oct 2009 | 3:00 am
    In last Thursday's front page article in The Wall Street Journal, Tom Lauricella, Jason Zweig, and Conor Daugherty said that "A year after the U.S. economy was brought to its knees by the bursting of the housing bubble, credit fo consumers is still being ratcheted back." The Federal Reserve reported on Wednesday that total consumer credit outstanding contracted for the seventh straight month (which has not occurred since 1991), falling $12 billion in August. Lauricella, Zweig, and Daugherty go on to point out that some of the decline is due to lenders' exposure on thier real estate loans in…

  • Questions on Lender's Minds

    4 Oct 2009 | 2:10 pm
    As lenders asssess lending opportunities and risks in today's troubled economy, they must consider many factors, and unavoidably all sorts of questions pop into their minds. For example: Item: Congress is poised to enact new laws and regulations in the wake of the financial crisis and the banking industry is experiencing a great deal of FUD anticipating the outcome. Item: Banks are struggling to properly assess credit risk so that they can make profitable loans – the demand is there, but they are hesitant to lend. Item: It’s now the end of another quarter and lenders are looking at one or…
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