Economics

  • Most Topular Stories

  • Textbooks are a bargain

    Greg Mankiw's Blog
    Greg Mankiw
    19 Aug 2015 | 10:09 am
    Compared with Harvard tuition, that is, according to Irwin Collier:Excerpts from the Harvard Catalogue for 1874-75 with principal texts.... Incidentally, one finds that annual fees for a full course load at Harvard ran $120/year and a copy of John Stuart Mill’s Principles cost $2.50. Cf. today’s Amazon.com price for N. Gregory Mankiw’s Economics which is $284.16. If tuition relative to the price of textbooks had remained unchanged (and the quality change of the Mankiw textbook relative to Mill’s textbook(!) were equal to the quality change of the Harvard undergraduate…
  • Michael Pettis: If We Don’t Understand Both Sides of China’s Balance Sheet, We Understand Neither

    naked capitalism
    Lambert Strether
    1 Sep 2015 | 9:55 pm
    China is a dynamic and unbalanced economic system entering into something that we might call a “phase shift”, or the rebalancing process.
  • Legendary Investor Lenny Dykstra Is Somehow Running Low On Cash

    Dealbreaker
    Bess Levin
    1 Sep 2015 | 3:13 pm
    Who has $50,000 they can spare?
  • Bad Ideas Down Under

    Paul Krugman
    By Paul Krugman
    1 Sep 2015 | 11:08 am
    Call me Bruce.
  • The Triumph of Backward-Looking Economics

    Paul Krugman
    By Paul Krugman
    1 Sep 2015 | 11:03 am
    Tobin was right.
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    Real Time Economics

  • 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

    Kate Davidson
    14 Aug 2015 | 1:55 pm
    The minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting highlight the week.
  • Video: The Married Millennial Parents Are Coming

    WSJ Staff
    14 Aug 2015 | 11:02 am
    A wave of millennial marriages and parents is its way, according to wedding and birth forecasting firm Demographic Intelligence. WSJ’s Lee Hawkins has the details. Related reading: Coming Soon: Millennials Married With Children Millennials Become the Biggest Generation in the U.S. Workforce Millennial Parents More Likely Than Gen Xers To Increase Work After Kids, Survey Says How to Tell If a ‘Fact’ About Millennials Isn’t Actually a Fact
  • Lower Electronics-Store Spending May Not Be What You Think

    Eric Morath
    13 Aug 2015 | 10:26 am
    One reason for lower electronics sales is that websites and general-merchandise stores are stealing sales from traditional electronics purveyors such as Best Buy and the struggling Radio Shack. Another reason is that electronics are getting cheaper. JOE RAEDLE/GETTY IMAGES Americans spent more at retailers selling everything from cars to camping gear in July, but they spent less at electronics stores. How can this be when gadget-head consumers are equipped with everything from Fitbits to Beats by Dre headphones?  One answer is that websites and general-merchandise stores are stealing…
  • Renters Spent a Record-High Share of Income on Rent This Spring

    Laura Kusisto
    13 Aug 2015 | 9:17 am
    A home for rent in San Francisco in April. Renters there put 47% of their income into rent in the second quarter. JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES The rental squeeze is getting worse, according to a new report by Zillow, as people are paying the highest-ever percentage of their income on rent. Renters can expect to pay 30.2% of their income on rent, according to a Zillow analysis of rental and mortgage affordability in the second quarter released Thursday. That is the highest percentage ever, said Zillow, which has data going back to 1979. The number is significant in part because it shows…
  • As Home Prices Rise, the Foreclosure Crisis Continues to Recede

    Joe Light
    13 Aug 2015 | 7:42 am
    Rising home prices have led to steady improvement in foreclosure rates. JOHN MOORE/GETTY IMAGES Fast-rising home values are raising alarms among some economists that the home-affordability problem is getting out of hand. But there is one happy side effect: The foreclosure crisis is receding into the background. The Mortgage Bankers Association, which represents mortgage lenders, on Thursday said that the foreclosure starts rate was merely 0.4% in the second quarter, 0.05 percentage point lower than the first quarter and on par with the rate seen during the housing boom. The delinquency…
 
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    naked capitalism

  • ObamaCare’s Narrow Networks, and Who To Blame When “There Is No Alternative”

    Lambert Strether
    2 Sep 2015 | 8:30 am
    A new study shows wide variation in narrow networks between states, and ObamaCare makes it hard to find out if your network is narrow or not.
  • Links 9/2/2015

    Lambert Strether
    2 Sep 2015 | 3:46 am
  • Leveraged Bubbles

    Lambert Strether
    1 Sep 2015 | 11:55 pm
    The risk that asset price bubbles pose for financial stability is still not clear. Drawing on 140 years of data, this column argues that leverage is the critical determinant of crisis damage. When fuelled by credit booms, asset price bubbles are associated with high financial crisis risk; upon collapse, they coincide with weaker growth and slower recoveries. Highly leveraged housing bubbles are the worst case of all.
  • Questus Global Capital Market, Scam Stock: an Update

    Richard Smith
    1 Sep 2015 | 11:54 pm
    Updating the bizarre story of Questus Global Capital Market, a New Brunswick-incorporated, GXG-listed, New-Zealand-FSP-brokered company of monstrously fraudulent aspect that had apparently ensnared a Malaysian billionaire, various US-based small businesses and retail investors, and a couple of princes from the royal families of Kuwait and Abu Dhabi.
  • Michael Pettis: If We Don’t Understand Both Sides of China’s Balance Sheet, We Understand Neither

    Lambert Strether
    1 Sep 2015 | 9:55 pm
    China is a dynamic and unbalanced economic system entering into something that we might call a “phase shift”, or the rebalancing process.
 
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    re: The Auditors

  • New Orleans January 2008: "He leadeth me beside still waters…"

    Francine
    29 Aug 2015 | 5:38 am
    I went to New Orleans in January 2008 for a few weeks to work with Habitat for Humanity building new houses. Here’s a slide show of what I saw three years after Katrina in the 9th Ward New Orleans LA.  Just went down on my own and joined a random group.  There was still a lot of work to do then, and was even more after Hurricane Gustav. For a post from that trip, go here. Click here for the slide show. NOLA January 2008 A Psalm of David The Lord is my shepherd; I shall not want. He maketh me to lie down in green pastures: He leadeth me beside the still waters. He restoreth my soul: He…
  • The NYDFS Case Against Promontory and the Bigger Problem of Big Four Bank Consulting

    Francine
    23 Aug 2015 | 3:45 pm
    The New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) says, in the investigative report on Promontory Financial Group that led to its recent sanctions against the bank consulting firm for work at Standard Chartered, that the agency “was created in 2011 to help ensure the safety and soundness of New York’s banking, insurance and financial services industries, to help ensure prudent conduct by providers of financial products and services, and to promote the reduction and elimination of unethical conduct by and with respect to banking, insurance and other financial services…
  • PCAOB’s Franzel Speaks to AAA; Are Auditors’ ICFR Opinions Just “Busy-Work”?

    Francine
    9 Aug 2015 | 9:56 am
    On Friday at MarketWatch I gave readers a little preview of a speech PCAOB member Jeanette Franzel gave at an all day COSO workshop on Saturday at the AAA Annual Meeting in Chicago. I wanted to reiterate what I read and what some of you heard and add a bit more for emphasis.  This is important analysis by the PCAOB and vitally important information for investors and those in a policy and regulatory role. You should shudder over the sheer nonsense of it all. Franzel’s  speech on Saturday at the American Accounting Association annual meeting, in part, responds to criticisms made by the…
  • SEC News at MarketWatch

    Francine
    19 Jul 2015 | 3:45 pm
    Last week was a busy one.  The Dodd-Frank anniversary party season began and everyone wants to either celebrate or take an opportunity to bash it.  On July 21 Dodd-Frank will be five years old. If I hadn’t been through the same thing with Sarbanes-Oxley now twice, I’d be more excited.  But the partisan rancor on this law is even worse.  At least with Sarbanes-Oxley it was either regulatory or anti-regulatory rhetoric and there was no real party split amongst those who didn’t and still don’t know what internal controls over financial reporting are. From the Harvard…
  • Speaking Engagements/Conferences

    Francine
    12 Jul 2015 | 5:40 am
    I’m on the road visiting universities, attending select conferences and forums and speaking to groups of all kinds. If you would like me to visit your university and your accounting/audit program, please write soon to lock in fall and winter dates. Contact me at fmckenna@mckennapartners.com to schedule a presentation at your university, conference, firm or for a private briefing. Coming Up: July 15, 2015, Speaking with Broc Romanek, editor of the CorporateCounsel.net, to the Shareholder Services Association Annual Meeting on “Leveraging Social Media.” Mayflower Hotel,…
 
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    The American Prospect

  • Carly Fiorina and the GOP Gender Card

    Adele M. Stan
    2 Sep 2015 | 5:52 am
    (Photo: AP/Jim Cole) Carly Fiorina speaks during an education summit in New Hampshire on August 19. However unlikely it is that Carly Fiorina, the fired Hewlett-Packard CEO and loser of a U.S. Senate race, will win the Republican presidential nomination, there’s a very good chance she could be the GOP running mate. The best card in the hand she has to play is that of gender, and she obviously knows it. Call it her anti-Trump card (if you can bear to). In presidential contests, the role of the vice presidential candidate is typically to attack whoever’s at the top of the other party’s…
  • The Labor Prospect: Employing Standards

    Justin Miller
    1 Sep 2015 | 1:50 pm
    AP Photo/M. Spencer Green McDonald's workers and supporters rally outside a McDonald's, Wednesday, April 15, 2015, in Chicago.  Welcome to The Labor Prospect, our weekly round-up highlighting the best reporting and latest developments in the labor movement.  In case you haven’t heard (and we can’t imagine how you couldn’t have), the NLRB announced a blockbuster decision that could turn modern labor relations on its head. In its Browning-Ferris case, the labor board ruled that companies are legally joint-employers with their contractors, staffing agencies, and franchisees. “With…
  • Are We Asking Too Much of the Federal Reserve—or Too Little?

    Robert Kuttner
    1 Sep 2015 | 5:51 am
    AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta, File Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, from left, with Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, and the board of governors of the Federal Reserve System, presides over a meeting in Washington on July 20, 2015.  This is an expanded version of a piece that first ran on Huffington Post. There has been obsessive chatter about whether the Federal Reserve will, or should, raise interest rates this fall. At the Fed’s annual end-of-summer gabfest at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the issue was topic A. Advocates of a rate hike make the following claims: Very low rates were necessary…
  • Why Nothing Can Quell the Media's Addiction to Clinton Scandals

    Paul Waldman
    31 Aug 2015 | 7:39 am
    AP Photo/John Locher Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton speaks at a town hall meeting Tuesday, August 18, 2015, in North Las Vegas, Nevada. If there's any constant in presidential campaigns, it's that at the first sign of difficulty, everyone who wants one particular candidate to win has an iron-clad critique of the candidate's decisions thus far, which goes something like, "If only they'd get their heads out of the sand and listen to what I have to tell them, they wouldn't be having these problems." You only have to get two or three partisans in a room (or an exchange…
  • Obama's Mixed Record on School Integration

    Rachel M. Cohen
    30 Aug 2015 | 3:58 pm
    AP Photo/Evan Vucci President Barack Obama, accompanied by Education Arne Duncan, speaks in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, Wednesday, April 29, 2015, during an event to honor the teachers of the year.  As Congress debates competing revisions of the No Child Left Behind Act over the next several weeks, lawmakers are unlikely to spend much time looking at the growing problem of segregated schools. Despite strong academic and civic benefits associated with integrated schooling, and a unanimous Supreme Court decision which ruled that “separate educational facilities are…
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    Robert Reich

  • Labor Day 2028

    31 Aug 2015 | 3:10 pm
    In 1928, famed British economist John Maynard Keynes predicted that technology would advance so far...
  • The Upsurge in Uncertain Work

    23 Aug 2015 | 3:13 pm
    As Labor Day looms, more Americans than ever don’t know how much they’ll be earning next week or...
  • CORPORATE WELFARE IN CALIFORNIACorporate welfare is often...

    19 Aug 2015 | 4:29 pm
    CORPORATE WELFARE IN CALIFORNIACorporate welfare is often camouflaged in taxes that seem neutral on their face but give windfalls to big entrenched corporations at the expense of average people and small businesses.Take a look at commercial property taxes in California, for example.In 1978 California voters passed Proposition 13 – which began to assess property for tax purposes at its price when it was bought, rather than its current market price.This has protected homeowners and renters. But it’s also given a quiet windfall to entrenched corporate owners of commercial…
  • The Fraud of the New “Family-Friendly” Work

    16 Aug 2015 | 2:22 pm
    Netflix just announced it’s offering paid leave to new mothers and fathers for the first year after...
  • The Outrageous Ascent of CEO Pay

    9 Aug 2015 | 3:47 pm
    The Securities and Exchange Commission approved a rule last week requiring that large publicly held...
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    Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality

  • Links

    J. Bradford DeLong
    6 Sep 2015 | 9:27 pm
    Links: Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Base Versus Base Rob Stavins: A Key Element for the Forthcoming Paris Climate Agreement Martin Wolf: China Risks an Economic Discontinuity Aliyah Dar and Douglas Pyper: Zero-Hours Contracts Peter L. Singer: Federally-Supported Innovations Must-Read: Mark Thoma: Syllabus for Monetary Theory and Policy Josh Lederman and Mark Thiessen: "President Barack Obama says he's changing the name of the tallest mountain in North America from Mount McKinley to Denali..." Must-Read: Michael Burda:…
  • No, the Federal Reserve Is Not a Market Manipulator

    J. Bradford DeLong
    2 Sep 2015 | 6:10 am
    Over at Equitable Growth: Let me pile on to something Paul Krugman published last week, and make fun of William Cohan for writing and the New York Times for publishing hopelessly confused austerity pseudonomics: Paul Krugman: Artificial Unintelligence: "In the early stages of the Lesser Depression... everywhere you looked, people who imagined themselves sophisticated and possessed of deep understanding were resurrecting 75-year-old fallacies and presenting them as deep insights.... [Now] I feel an even deeper sense of despair--because people are still rolling out those same fallacies...
  • Martin Wolf and I See the Odds on the Different Future Chinas Somewhat Differently

    J. Bradford DeLong
    2 Sep 2015 | 5:04 am
    Over at Equitable Growth Martin Wolf calls himself a long-run China optimist--that China is more likely than not following the Korean road, is now where Korea was in the early 1980s, and: South Korea’s real GDP per head has since nearly quadrupled in real terms, to reach almost 70 per cent of US levels. If China became as rich as Korea, its economy would be bigger than those of the US and Europe combined... Last week for the Huffington Post I gave my case for China pessimism: that what Japan, Korea, Spain--even Singapore--demonstrate is that escaping the middle-income trap requires…
  • 2 Sep 2015 | 4:15 am

    J. Bradford DeLong
    2 Sep 2015 | 4:15 am
    Must-Read: As time passes, there seems to be less and less technocrat rationale for the policy of cutting back the social insurance state in order to keep the taxes on the rich low. Yet that does not appear to do anything to weaken pressures putting for politicians to endorse such policies--even at a very cost in terms of being in synch with their electoral base: Paul Krugman: Base Versus Base: "‘This is an impressive crowd... ...the haves and the have-mores. Some people call you the elites; I call you my base." -- George W. Bush Ezra Klein... on [how] The Donald...
  • Economist's View: Syllabus for Monetary Theory and Policy

    J. Bradford DeLong
    2 Sep 2015 | 4:08 am
    Must-Read: Mark Thoma: Syllabus for Monetary Theory and Policy: "Everyone seems to be posting the syllabus... ...for the graduate courses they are teaching this fall. Mine is simple. In my Monetary Theory and Policy course we are going to go through this book by Jordi Gali (don't tell anyone I actually know this stuff): Jordi Gali: Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2015/09/syllabus-for-monetary-theory-and-policy.html
 
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    Calculated Risk

  • FDIC: Fewer Problem banks, Residential REO Declines in Q2

    Bill McBride
    2 Sep 2015 | 8:15 am
    The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q2 today: Commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported aggregate net income of $43.0 billion in the second quarter of 2015, up $2.9 billion (7.3 percent) from a year earlier and the highest quarterly income on record. The increase in earnings was mainly attributable to a $3.6 billion rise in net operating revenue (net interest income plus total noninterest income). Financial results for the second quarter of 2015 are included in the FDIC's latest Quarterly Banking Profile…
  • ADP: Private Employment increased 190,000 in August

    Bill McBride
    2 Sep 2015 | 5:20 am
    From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 190,000 jobs from July to August according to the August ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis....Goods-producing employment rose by 17,000 jobs in August, more than double the 7,000 gained in July. The construction industry added 17,000 jobs in August, up from 15,000 last month. Meanwhile, manufacturing added 7,000 jobs in August, after gaining only 1,000 in July.Service-providing…
  • MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up 25% YoY

    Bill McBride
    2 Sep 2015 | 4:00 am
    From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications increased 11.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 28, 2015. ...The Refinance Index increased 17 percent from the previous week to its highest level since April 2015. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent from one week earlier to its highest level since July 2015. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 25…
  • Wednesday: ADP Employment, Beige Book

    Bill McBride
    1 Sep 2015 | 5:03 pm
    Auto sales and construction spending were solid, although manufacturing was weak. However the weakness in manufacturing is mostly due to lower oil prices and the strong dollar, so overall the US data has been fairly solid.Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:15 AM, the ADP Employment Report for August. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 210,000 payroll jobs added in August, up from 185,000 in July.• At 10:00 AM, Manufacturers' Shipments,…
  • U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increased to 17.7 million annual rate in August

    Bill McBride
    1 Sep 2015 | 11:31 am
    Based on a WardsAuto estimate, light vehicle sales were at a 17.72 million SAAR in August. That is up 2.9% from August 2014, and up 1.3% from the 17.5 million annual sales rate last month.Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for July (red, light vehicle sales of 17.7 million SAAR from WardsAuto).This was above to the consensus forecast of 17.3 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate).The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.Note: dashed line is current…
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    Crooked Timber

  • The great replication crisis

    John Quiggin
    1 Sep 2015 | 10:59 pm
    There’s been a lot of commentary on a recent study by the Replication Project that attempted to replicate 100 published studies in psychology, all of which found statistically significant effects of some kind. The results were pretty dismal. Only about one-third of the replications observed a statistically significant effect, and the average effect size was about half that originally reported. Unfortunately, most of the discussion of this study I’ve seen, notably in the New York Times, has missed the key point, namely the problem of publication bias. The big problem is that, under…
  • Fuck Nuance

    Kieran Healy
    31 Aug 2015 | 11:12 am
    About nine months ago, my colleague Steve Vaisey told me he was interested in organizing a session at the American Sociological Association Meetings about the idea of “nuance” in sociological theory, and in particular about how there seemed to be a lot of demand for the stuff. He asked me if I’d be interested in submitting a paper called something like “Against Nuance”. I replied that if you were going to do something like that, you should just go ahead and call it “Fuck Nuance” and be done with it. “OK then”, said Steve, “I’ll…
  • Conan!

    John Holbo
    31 Aug 2015 | 6:56 am
    The Barbarian, that is. My friend Josh Glenn commissioned a bunch of folks to contribute very short appreciations under the heading, “Crom Your Enthusiasm”. R.E. Howard stuff, then. But also C.L. Moore, Lovecraft, Fritz Leiber, Ashton Clark Smith, others. You get the idea. (Some ringers in there.) So check it out, especially if you like all that old Margaret Brundage art! Who doesn’t? So I tried to enthuse about Crom in 300 words! I wanted to bring out how Howard’s Conan, that thick-thewed template for much ‘sword and sorcery’ that follows, is very much in…
  • Duke, Berkeley, Columbia, Oh My: What our students are trying to tell us

    Corey Robin
    29 Aug 2015 | 4:53 pm
    My Sunday column in Salon uses the latest campus controversy—the Duke student who refuses to read Alison Bechdel’s Fun Home—as an opportunity to take a second look at what these students with their trigger warnings and sensitivities are trying to tell us: No one knows the power of literature better than the censor. That’s why he burns books: to fight fire with fire, to stop them from setting the world aflame. Or becomes an editor: Stalin, we now know, excised words from texts with about as much energy and attention as he excised men and women from the…
  • Impressions from the first IPSP authors meeting

    Ingrid Robeyns
    29 Aug 2015 | 2:54 am
    Over the last three days, the first meeting of authors of the International Panel of Social Progress (IPSP) was held in Istanbul. The IPSP is to some extent modeled after the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but one important difference is that it is not commissioned by governments, but rather fully peer-led and hence ‘autonomous’ (in at least one important sense of that word). There are some partners/funders, but they have no influence on the content of the report. The entire event is quite experimental: a highly interdisciplinary group of scholars, drawn from around…
 
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    Econbrowser

  • Guest Contribution: “Capital Controls in Brazil: Effective”

    Menzie Chinn
    1 Sep 2015 | 4:14 pm
    Today we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Marcos Chamon, Senior Economist in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund, and Márcio Garcia, Associate Professor of Economics at PUC-Rio. The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its management, nor its Executive Board. Emerging markets have experienced a strong recovery in capital inflows in the aftermath of the systemic sudden stop in late 2008-early 2009. Flows reached levels comparable to their pre-crisis peak, driven…
  • U.S. tight oil production decline

    James_Hamilton
    30 Aug 2015 | 11:34 am
    U.S. oil production has begun to drop in response to low oil prices, but not as dramatically as many had anticipated. Oil companies have cut back spending significantly in response to the fall in the price of oil. The number of rigs that are active in the main U.S. tight oil producing regions– the Permian and Eagle Ford in Texas, Bakken in North Dakota and Montana, and Niobrara in Wyoming and Colorado– is down 58% over the last 12 months. Number of active oil rigs in counties associated with the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, and Niobrara plays, monthly Jan 2007 to July 2015. Data…
  • Katrina Plus Ten

    Menzie Chinn
    27 Aug 2015 | 6:07 pm
    Let hope our responses to the next ones are better than “Heckuva job, Brownie”. From Grinsted, Moore, and Jevrejeva, “Projected Atlantic hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2013: Abstract: Detection and attribution of past changes in cyclone activity are hampered by biased cyclone records due to changes in observational capabilities. Here, we relate a homogeneous record of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity based on storm surge statistics from tide gauges to changes in global…
  • To Log or Not to Log, Part V

    Menzie Chinn
    26 Aug 2015 | 7:35 pm
    The Shanghai stock market has undergone some wild gyrations over the last year… and back in 2008. Following up on To Log or Not to Log, Part IV: Here’s the picture, as usually depicted. Figure 1: Shanghai composite stock market index, end of month close. August observation is for 8/26. Source: Quandl. The movements look a bit different (but still scary) in logs. Figure 2: Log Shanghai composite stock market index, end of month close. August observation is for 8/26. Source: Quandl and author’s calculations.
  • To Log or Not to Log, Part IV

    Menzie Chinn
    26 Aug 2015 | 7:18 pm
    Do stock price indices follow a random walk? No, but log stock price indices do…kind of Here’s a graph of the Standard and Poors 500 price index, level (blue) and the log (red). Figure 1: S&P 500 stock price index (blue, left scale) and log (red, right scale). Source: FRED, and author’s calculations. Both processes look nonstationary, but the levels process more so (technically, “explosive”). Which one is the more appropriate to examine? A little theory might be helpful. Consider an asset pricing model for stocks. Ignoring dividends, Pt = (EtPt+1)/(1+i) Where P is the stock…
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    EconLog: Library of Economics and Liberty

  • Markets are self-aware

    Scott Sumner
    2 Sep 2015 | 10:00 am
    (September 2, 2015 10:00 AM, by Scott Sumner) Markets are just amazingly wise. But that shouldn't be surprisingly, because they must be smarter than us in order to make it tough to get rich. And that's because if it were easy to get rich we'd quickly run out... (2 COMMENTS)
  • Scott Alexander on Labor Economics: Point-by-Point Reply

    Bryan Caplan
    2 Sep 2015 | 12:09 am
    (September 2, 2015 12:09 AM, by Bryan Caplan) To recap my last post, Scott Alexander's critique of libertarian labor economics amounts to a critique of mainstream labor economics itself.  If Scott were in my labor economics course, I could spend hours of classtime responding to his thought-provoking critique. ... (20 COMMENTS)
  • Questions for Luigi Zingales

    David Henderson
    1 Sep 2015 | 5:49 pm
    (September 1, 2015 05:49 PM, by David Henderson) Over at Marginal Revolution, Tyler Cowen has asked people to propose questions for him to ask Luigi Zingales next week. I'm a big fan of Zingales's book A Capitalism for the People: Recapturing the Lost Genius of American Prosperity. I... (6 COMMENTS)
  • Pseudo-recessions and actual recessions

    Scott Sumner
    1 Sep 2015 | 1:08 pm
    (September 1, 2015 01:08 PM, by Scott Sumner) Last year I did a number of blog posts criticizing the consensus view that Japan had fallen into a recession. Many people assumed that two consecutive declines in real GDP meant that Japan was in recession. I argued that the... (6 COMMENTS)
  • A Counterexample for Scott Alexander

    David Henderson
    1 Sep 2015 | 12:57 pm
    (September 1, 2015 12:57 PM, by David Henderson) I enjoyed Bryan Caplan's post early this morning. In my view, the best comments so far are by Daniel Fountain and by Thomas B, although Mike Hammock and Hasdrubal make good points also. I look forward to reading Bryan's responses... (4 COMMENTS)
 
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    Economist's View

  • Links for 09-02-15

    Mark Thoma
    2 Sep 2015 | 12:06 am
    Quit rates and wage growth - macroblog The Triumph of Backward-Looking Economics - Paul Krugman Capital Controls in Brazil: Effective - Econbrowser More Economic Prejudice and High-Minded Sloganeering - Uneasy Money The Neverending Fight to Save Social Security - The New York Times A Key Element for the Paris Climate Agreement - Robert Stavins Repugnance as a Constraint on Markets - Liberty Street Multipliers: What We Should Have Known - Paul Krugman On the Chinese fiscal stimulus memory hole - MacroMania A more accurate measure of economic output - CBS News The dynamics of the Roman Empire -…
  • The U.S. Economy Has Become Less Interest Rate Sensitive

    Mark Thoma
    1 Sep 2015 | 11:53 am
    This is from "Has the U.S. Economy Become Less Interest Rate Sensitive?," by Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao of the KC Fed: ... IV. Conclusion Although monetary policy is an important tool for promoting price and economic stability, its efficacy can change over time. This article investigates the interest rate channel of monetary policy and, more specifically, the response of employment to changes in the federal funds rate. Analytical results suggest the interest sensitivity of employment has declined in recent decades for nearly all industries and for the overall economy. The…
  • 'Leveraged Bubbles'

    Mark Thoma
    1 Sep 2015 | 9:25 am
    The conclusion to "Leveraged bubbles," by Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, and Alan Taylor: ... In this column, we turned to economic history for the first comprehensive assessment of the economic risks of asset price bubbles. We provide evidence about which types of bubbles matter and how their economic costs differ. Our historical analysis shows that not all bubbles are created equal. When credit growth fuels asset price bubbles, the dangers for the financial sector and the real economy are much more substantial. The damage done to the economy by the bursting of credit boom…
  • Syllabus for Monetary Theory and Policy

    Mark Thoma
    1 Sep 2015 | 1:17 am
    Everyone seems to be posting the syllabus for the graduate courses they are teaching this fall. Mine is simple. In my Monetary Theory and Policy course we are going to go through this book by Jordi Gali (don't tell anyone I actually know this stuff): Blurb: This revised second edition of Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle provides a rigorous graduate-level introduction to the New Keynesian framework and its applications to monetary policy. The New Keynesian framework is the workhorse for the analysis of monetary policy and its implications for inflation, economic…
  • 'The Clinical-Bench Science Distinction in Macro'

    Mark Thoma
    1 Sep 2015 | 1:11 am
    In response to this from Paul Romer: The Clinical-Bench Science Distinction in Macro: I had hoped to find time to offer a more thoughtful response to Simon Wren Lewis’s most recent comments on the way forward in macroeconomics... For now, I’ll go ahead with what I hope is a suggestion that could encourage some kind of consensus: Perhaps the discussion about macro would benefit from a distinction like the one in biomedicine between bench science and clinical work. In my interpretation, what Lucas and Sargent were trying to do in the 1970s was to develop the bench science side of…
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    EconTalk

  • Paul Robinson on Cooperation, Punishment and the Criminal Justice System

    Russell Roberts
    31 Aug 2015 | 3:30 am
    Are human beings naturally cooperative or selfish? Can people thrive without government law? Paul Robinson of the University of Pennsylvania and author of Pirates, Prisoners and Lepers talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts the ideas in his book. Robinson argues that without government sanctions or legislation, there is an evolutionary drive to cooperate even in life-and-death situations. In such situations private punishment and norms play a crucial role in sustaining cooperative solutions. The last part of the conversation deals with the criminal justice system and how attitudes toward the…
  • Lynxes, and Soybeans, and Bears, Oh My!

    Amy Willis
    24 Aug 2015 | 1:04 pm
    When you think about "high-tech," you tend to think about your electronic devices, silicon chips, the Internet...But what about nature? How much do bears, deer, and whales owe to technology? This week's EconTalkepisode with Jesse Ausubel is a whirlwind of food, transportation, wilderness, and more. There's a lot to think about, and we know you doing just that! So please share your thoughts based on the prompts below in the Comments, and let's continue the conversation. 1. Ausubel claims that if the world shifted to a more plant-centric diet, this would be better for the land. Roberts points…
  • Jesse Ausubel on Agriculture, Technology, and the Return of Nature

    Russell Roberts
    24 Aug 2015 | 3:30 am
    Thousands of bears in New Jersey. Humpback whales near New York City. Acres devoted to farming stable or declining even as food production soars. Jesse Ausubel of the Rockefeller University talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the return of nature. Ausubel shows how technology has reduced many of the dimensions of the human footprint even as population rises and why this trend is likely to continue into the future. The conversation concludes with Ausubel's cautious optimism about the impact of climate change. Play Time: 1:02:52 How do I listen to a podcast? Download Size:28.9 MB…
  • Haute Cuisine pour Vous?

    Amy Willis
    20 Aug 2015 | 10:27 am
    In an age of abundance, how does the way we think about food differ from the past? This week, EconTalk host Russ Roberts welcomed historian Rachel Laudan for a fascinating conversation about the history, culture, and economics of food. We'd like to see their conversation expand here. Please share your thoughts on the prompts below in the Comments. As always, we love to hear from you. 1. What was the most interesting thing you took from this week's episode? Explain. 2. Even today, French cuisine is regarded as the pinnacle of fine dining. How did this come to pass (and why did British cuisine…
  • Rachel Laudan on the History of Food and Cuisine

    Russell Roberts
    17 Aug 2015 | 3:30 am
    Rachel Laudan, visiting scholar at the University of Texas and author of Cuisine and Empire, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the history of food. Topics covered include the importance of grain, the spread of various styles of cooking, why French cooking has elite status, and the reach of McDonald's. The conversation concludes with a discussion of the appeal of local food and other recent food passions. Play Time: 1:06:55 How do I listen to a podcast? Download Size:30.7 MB Right-click or Option-click, and select "Save Link/Target As MP3. Readings and Links related to this podcast…
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    Environmental Economics

  • 'Fuck Nuance'*

    Tim Haab
    2 Sep 2015 | 4:45 am
    I think we need a 'Papers I wish I had written' category: Nuance is revered in higher education. That’s especially true in sociology, where scholars spend their lives digging into the fine grain of human social behavior, often finding even finer grain underneath. Which is why it came as such a surprise — and perhaps a relief — when Kieran Healy, an associate professor of sociology at Duke University, last week brought a blunt message to the American Sociological Association’s annual meeting: "Fuck Nuance." That is the title of a paper he presented at the conference…
  • Touchy-feely nonsense like the environment?

    John Whitehead
    1 Sep 2015 | 12:53 pm
    Usually I'm a big fan of Ironman at Political Calculations. I've been vaguely following the Paul Romer "mathiness" thread so I read this post with interest: Economist Paul Romer recently made waves in his profession after he recognized the increasing use of misleading math by others in his profession, most often in the attempt to pursue a political or ideological agenda, has gotten to the point where it is obstructing progress in the field. Ironman asks: How can we cut through the sleight of hand? ... How might that be done in economics? We would suggest that the three…
  • EDF: Mississippi River Delta and Natural Infrastructure Economist (2-year Post-doctoral Position)

    John Whitehead
    28 Aug 2015 | 12:37 pm
    With world attention focused on both the environment and the economy, Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) is where policymakers and business leaders turn for win-win solutions. This leading green group, with programs from Boston to Beijing, has tripled in size over the past decade by focusing on strong science, uncommon partnerships and market-based approaches. You can be part of a vibrant workplace that welcomes diverse perspectives, talents and contributions, where innovation and a focus on results are a way of life. The need for climate adaptation in coastal environments in the US (and around…
  • This reminds me of reviewing economics grant proposals written by engineers

    John Whitehead
    28 Aug 2015 | 9:31 am
    Source: http://xkcd.com/1570/
  • "Ohio State’s jersey 'coincidence'”

    John Whitehead
    27 Aug 2015 | 5:58 am
    John Clay: In his basketball notebook a couple of weeks back, Jerry Tipton wrote about the issue of schools selling jerseys with numbers that often correlate to the most recognizable players on the team. The players themselves receive no money from the sales. The story included UK AD Mitch Barnhart saying, “I think there are very few iconic players anymore … Our coaches have sort of been our icons, if you will.” Jay Bilas, long-time critic of the practice, tweeted out a link to a story Tuesday from The Lantern in which Ohio State will sell only jerseys with two numbers this season. The…
 
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    Free exchange

  • China is scaring away foreign investors with its efforts to defend shares

    S.R. | SHANGHAI
    2 Sep 2015 | 1:23 am
    THE ups and downs of China’s stockmarket have become plainly, painfully visible to the world. Less transparent, but perhaps more damaging in years to come, has been another kind of rollercoaster. The government has gone from the concerted wooing of international investors to doing just about everything in its power to keep them out. That of course is not China’s intent. Its goal is to stabilise share prices and, to that end, it still welcomes cash from abroad. But the cumulative result of its interventions in recent weeks has been to scare away investors.China’s stockmarket has…
  • Chinese ripples

    Economist.com
    1 Sep 2015 | 12:57 pm
    ANOTHER week of market volatility sees the Fed possibly going ahead with a rate rise, Chinese manufacturing drop and oil prices see-saw
  • When a 26% plunge in GDP feels fine

    B.L. | NEW YORK
    1 Sep 2015 | 3:51 am
    WITH unemployment at 25%, government debt at more than 170% of GDP, and the country’s politics in turmoil, the 26% peak-to-trough decline in output brought about by the euro-zone crisis has been highly traumatic for Greece. Yet the government of Macau, the one-time Portuguese colony now the world’s gambling capital, just released figures showing that the territory’s GDP fell by 26.4% year-on-year in the second quarter. But at first blush Macau’s real economy appears to be doing rather fine. In spite of the steep fall in GDP, unemployment remained at its full employment level of 1.8%,…
  • Was the crash that big?

    D.D. | LONDON
    28 Aug 2015 | 5:41 am
    HOW big was China’s stockmarket crash? Dubbed “Black Monday”, August 24th ended with Chinese equities down 8.5%, wiping out hundreds of billions of dollars in market capitalisation. Like many things about China, this sounds massive. But is a one-day drop of this magnitude that unusual? Answering this question requires an understanding of China’s historical market volatility. In the last 25 years, the Shanghai Composite, China’s benchmark stock index, has closed within one percentage point of the previous day’s close on just 56% of all trading days, with an average movement of…
  • The Bank of England will follow the Federal Reserve

    C.W. | LONDON
    28 Aug 2015 | 5:22 am
    THE UPWARD revision to American GDP on August 27th provided a shot in the arm to global stockmarkets, which have endured their most volatile week of trading in years. The American economy is now thought to have grown by 3.7% at an annual rate in the second quarter, a much higher estimate than the 2.3% that was given in an initial evaluation of the quarter. After so much bad news about the Chinese economy, which has been a factor behind the meltdown of Chinese share indices, the US figure came as a relief to markets. Commodities also rallied: Brent crude soared by 10%, its biggest one-day gain…
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    Greg Mankiw's Blog

  • The Game Theory of Heroism

    Greg Mankiw
    1 Sep 2015 | 1:11 am
    From the NY Times.
  • A Career in Economics

    Greg Mankiw
    28 Aug 2015 | 7:29 am
    A career in Economics...it's much more than you think from American Economic Association on Vimeo.
  • Aargh!!!....Overtaken

    Greg Mankiw
    24 Aug 2015 | 10:48 am
     SourceNow I know how Jeb Bush feels.
  • An Unlikely Sentence

    Greg Mankiw
    21 Aug 2015 | 4:10 am
    "Blanchard, Mankiw, and Romer are all in the Wu-Tang Clan."From Dietz Vollrath, an economics professor at the University of Houston, in his Hip-Hop History of Macro.
  • Textbooks are a bargain

    Greg Mankiw
    19 Aug 2015 | 10:09 am
    Compared with Harvard tuition, that is, according to Irwin Collier:Excerpts from the Harvard Catalogue for 1874-75 with principal texts.... Incidentally, one finds that annual fees for a full course load at Harvard ran $120/year and a copy of John Stuart Mill’s Principles cost $2.50. Cf. today’s Amazon.com price for N. Gregory Mankiw’s Economics which is $284.16. If tuition relative to the price of textbooks had remained unchanged (and the quality change of the Mankiw textbook relative to Mill’s textbook(!) were equal to the quality change of the Harvard undergraduate…
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    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

  • Fed Apologist Ritholtz Interviews Fed Apologist McCulley

    1 Sep 2015 | 10:17 pm
    Bloomberg columnist Barry Ritholtz interviewed Paul McCulley, former chief economist at PIMCO, and often mentioned FOMC candidate on the Fed's performance. The Podcast is over two hours long, so let's just go with Ritholtz's brief summary: McCulley Demands Apology on Behalf of the Fed. McCulley noted those who claimed QE and ZIRP were going to cause inflation and the collapse of the dollar were totally wrong, and he demanded these critics of the Federal Reserve owe former Ben Bernanke an apology. Had the Fed Chief listened to them, we would have found ourselves in a modern day depression.He…
  • Investigating Consumer Confidence: 3-Month Low? 10-Month Low? Near Record High?

    1 Sep 2015 | 11:05 am
    Last week, three different measures of consumer confidence came out:University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Level Gallup: Economic Confidence IndexClaim of ImportanceBloomberg states "Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending."Let's investigate that claim starting with a look at the latest results from each survey.  Consumer Confidence On August 25, the Conference Board's "Consumer Confidence Level" soared well ahead of any Bloomberg Consensus estimate with a reading Bloomberg stated "will have…
  • ISM Weaker Than Expected, Details Weak, Exports Contract Third Month

    1 Sep 2015 | 9:42 am
    Those expecting a boost from the ISM report for August were disappointed today.The Bloomberg Consensus estimate for ISM was 52.8, with a range of 51.5 to 54.0. The report was below any economist's expectation at 51.1.The ISM index, at a lower-than-expected 51.1, is signaling the slowest rate of growth for the factory sector since May 2013. And the key details are uniformly weak. New orders, at 51.7, are at one of the slowest rates of monthly growth of the recovery, since April 2013. Backlog orders, at 46.5, are in a third month of contraction. New export orders, at 46.5, are also in their…
  • China PMI Contracts Fastest Since February-March 2009

    1 Sep 2015 | 2:39 am
    China manufacturing and services are both in contraction at the fastest rate since early 2009.The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI shows operating conditions deteriorate at fastest rate since March 2009. Chinese manufacturers saw the quickest deterioration in operating conditions for over six years in August, according to latest business survey data. Total new orders and new export business both declined at sharper rates than in July, and contributed to the most marked contraction of output since November 2011. Lower production requirements prompted companies to reduce their purchasing…
  • Greece Loses 17,000 Jobs in July, Most Since 2001

    31 Aug 2015 | 9:47 pm
    It's no wonder Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras wanted elections now rather than later. He does not want the grim news of job losses and austerity to hit when he is more vulnerable.Tsipras' problem may well be that he is too late.Via translation from Libre Mercado, The Greek Economy Lost 17,000 Jobs in July, the Worst Result Since 2001. Industrial production recorded a record drop in July, according to estimates by Markit.In addition, capital controls, have resulted in record job losses according to data published on Monday the National Confederation of Commerce and Companies (ESEE…
 
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    Overcoming Bias

  • If Post Filter, We Are Alone

    Robin Hanson
    31 Aug 2015 | 6:15 am
    Me four years ago: Imagine that over the entire past and future history of our galaxy, human-level life would be expected to arise spontaneously on about one hundred planets. At least it would if those planets were not disturbed by outsiders. Imagine also that, once life on a planet reaches a human level, it is likely to quickly (e.g., within a million years) expand to permanently colonize the galaxy. And imagine life rarely crosses between galaxies. In this case we should expect Earth to be one of the first few habitable planets created, since otherwise Earth would likely have already been…
  • Why Have Opinions?

    Robin Hanson
    29 Aug 2015 | 6:42 am
    I just surprised some people here at a conference by saying that I don’t have opinions on abortion or gun control. I have little use for such opinions, and so haven’t bothered to form them. Since that attitude seems to be unusual among my intellectual peers, let me explain myself. I see four main kinds of reasons to have opinions on subjects: Decisions – Sometimes I need to make concrete decisions where the best choice depends on particular key facts or values. In such cases I am forced to have opinions on those subjects, in order to make good decisions. I may well just adopt,…
  • Excess Turbulence?

    Robin Hanson
    24 Aug 2015 | 9:05 am
    To help me imagine how different future cultures might be, I’ve been trying to learn about typical lives of our distant ancestors. One excellent source is Montaillou: The Promised Land of Error by Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie in 1978. Around 1300 Jacquest Fournier, who eventually became pope but was then a bishop, led an Inquisition against heretics in the small town of Montaillou in southern France, population 200. He transcribed several years worth of interviews of them, revealing great detail about ordinary life there. One tidbit: Instability was the hallmark of a shepard’s life, as of the…
  • Life’s Laminar Endgame

    Robin Hanson
    20 Aug 2015 | 7:20 am
    I turn 56 in a week, and I’ve been thinking about how life changes with age. I’ve come up with a view expressed in terms of two key distinctions: Foregame vs. Endgame Actions in games often have both direct local immediate consequences, and also more indirect global delayed consequences, such as those that result from how other players react to your actions, then more others react to those actions, and so on. The longer a game that stretches ahead, and the more other players who interact, the more that these indirect consequences can matter. In contrast, at the end of a game there are…
  • Yay Soda Firms

    Robin Hanson
    16 Aug 2015 | 5:45 am
    It is usually bad for people to die, and so good for them to keep living. Overall in our society, people who weigh more for their age and gender tend to die more, and so many are concerned about an “obesity epidemic”, and seek ways to reduce people’s weight, such as by getting them to consume fewer calories. Such as from drinking sugary soda. TIME magazine says that evil soda firms, like evil tobacco firms before them, are lying about science to distract us from their evil: You may not have noticed it yet, but sodamakers are working hard to get you off your couch. On Aug. 9, a New York…
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Stan attribution

    Andrew
    1 Sep 2015 | 6:08 am
    I worry that I get too much credit for Stan. So let me clarify. I didn’t write Stan. Stan is written in C++, and I’ve never in my life written a line of C, or C+, or C++, or C+++, or C-, or any of these things. Here’s a quick description of what we’ve all done, listed in order of joining the development team. • Andrew Gelman (Columbia University) chief of staff, chief of marketing, chief of fundraising, chief of modeling, chief of training, max marginal likelihood, expectation propagation, posterior analysis, R, founder • Bob Carpenter (Columbia University)…
  • Constructing an informative prior using meta-analysis

    Andrew
    31 Aug 2015 | 9:29 am
    Chris Guure writes: I am trying to construct an informative prior by synthesizing or collecting some information from literature (meta-analysis) and then to apply that to a real data set (it is longitudinal data) for over 20 years follow-up. In constructing the prior using the meta-analysis data, the issue of publication bias came up. I have tried looking to see if there is any literature on this but it seems almost all the articles on Bayesian meta-analysis do not actually account for this issue apart from one (Givens, Smith and Tweedie 1997). My thinking was that I could assume a data…
  • Uri Simonsohn warns us not to be falsely reassured

    Andrew
    31 Aug 2015 | 6:52 am
    I agree with Uri Simonsohn that you don’t learn much by looking at the distribution of all the p-values that have appeared in some literature. Uri explains: Most p-values reported in most papers are irrelevant for the strategic behavior of interest. Covariates, manipulation checks, main effects in studies testing interactions, etc. Including them we underestimate p-hacking and we overestimate the evidential value of data. Analyzing all p-values asks a different question, a less sensible one. Instead of “Do researchers p-hack what they study?” we ask “Do researchers p-hack…
  • On deck this week

    Andrew
    31 Aug 2015 | 6:00 am
    Mon: Constructing an informative prior using meta-analysis Tues: Stan attribution Wed: Cannabis/IQ follow-up: Same old story Thurs: Defining conditional probability Fri: In defense of endless arguments Sat: Emails I never finished reading Sun: BREAKING . . . Sepp Blatter accepted $2M payoff from Dennis Hastert The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • “Another bad chart for you to criticize”

    Andrew
    30 Aug 2015 | 6:25 am
    Stuart Buck sends in this Onion-worthy delight: The post “Another bad chart for you to criticize” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
 
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    Streetsblog New York City

  • NYC: Today’s Headlines

    Stephen Miller
    2 Sep 2015 | 5:53 am
    Daily News Says “Accidents Happen,” Isn’t Satisfied with ROW Settlement That Kept Law In Place Bus Driver and Victim’s Family Tell Daily News They Are Both Pleased With Settlement Gothamist Focuses on Bus Drivers, But the Settlement Actually Affects All Drivers Equally TA Activists Want Your Suggestions for the Most Dangerous Streets in Eastern Queens (DNA) Curb-Jumping Driver Smashes Into Forest Hills Storefront (Q Gazette) As Public Advocate, de Blasio Often Drove Staffers Home After Work (WSJ) Already Over Budget and Behind Schedule, Additional Bklyn Bridge…
  • NYC: Citi Bike Arrives on the Upper East Side and Upper West Side

    Stephen Miller
    1 Sep 2015 | 1:41 pm
    Manhattan Borough President Gale Brewer at the first Citi Bike station on the Upper East Side. Photo: NYC DOT Citi Bike has begun its expansion to the Upper East Side and Upper West Side. Manhattan Borough President Gale Brewer, Council Member Ben Kallos, DOT Manhattan Borough Commissioner Margaret Forgione, DOT Deputy Commissioner for Policy Michael Replogle and Citi Bike General Manager Jules Flynn celebrated the first Citi Bike station on the Upper East Side with a photo-op this morning at 67th Street and Lexington Avenue. As of this afternoon, stations have also been installed on the…
  • NYC: James Oddo Calls for Wider Roads Hours After SI Traffic Violence Claims Life

    Brad Aaron
    1 Sep 2015 | 12:52 pm
    A UPS worker who lost a leg when a Staten Island driver slammed into him in April has died. NYPD and Staten Island prosecutors issued no summonses and filed no criminal charges in the case. Tom Ryan. Photo via SI Advance Tom Ryan, 52, was unloading packages from his truck at 2044 Hylan Boulevard on the morning of April 6 when a driver hit him with a Toyota sedan, according to the Staten Island Advance. NYPD told the Advance the driver was in the left, northbound lane and “tried to avoid hitting a pedestrian who crossed in front of his vehicle.” The driver lost control of his vehicle and…
  • NYC: 32nd Street Finally Has Enough Space for Walking. Will It Last?

    Stephen Miller
    1 Sep 2015 | 12:05 pm
    This pedestrian space, installed for a summer trial period, may give way to parked trucks because building owners on the south side of 32nd Street want more loading zones. Photo: Stephen Miller New pedestrian zones near Penn Station have given people more breathing room on some of the most crowded streets in the city. Will they stay or will they go after a trial period wraps up in October? At a Community Board 5 committee meeting last night, nearby property owners weighed in on the projects. It was smooth sailing for the new plaza on 33rd Street at Seventh Avenue, but a…
  • NYC: DOT: Drivers Injured 1,305 Pedestrians and Cyclists in July, and Killed Six

    Brad Aaron
    1 Sep 2015 | 9:52 am
    Killed by NYC drivers in July: Aron Aranbayev, Kevin Lopez, and Alberta Bagu. Editors’ note: Beginning with July, we are basing our monthly fatality and injury data posts on DOT’s compilation of crash data instead of NYPD’s. DOT data gives a more complete picture of citywide injuries, though accounting of fatalities may be delayed in cases where the victim died days or weeks after the crash. Known discrepancies will be noted. Eighteen people died in New York City traffic in July, and 4,911 were injured, according to DOT’s Vision Zero View crash data map. As of the end…
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    The Big Picture

  • Long Term Market Recoveries

    Barry Ritholtz
    2 Sep 2015 | 6:00 am
    Source: Putnam Investments
  • 10 Wednesday AM Reads

    Barry Ritholtz
    2 Sep 2015 | 4:42 am
    Wakey wakey, time to shake & bakey. Your morning after the rout the day before train reads: • Most Downloaded SSRN Paper Ever Is All About Market Timing – and it suggests investors should currently be in cash (Bloomberg) • How Much Diversification is Necessary? (A Wealth of Common Sense) see also The economics of the stock market is simple really: buy and hold (The Independent) • I Can’t Define Short-Term Silliness but, Like Justice Stewart, I Know It When I See It (AQR) but see 5 Forces Driving the Global Stock Selloff (Moneybeat) • Economics Has Math Problem…
  • Every Fed Member’s Position on Raising Rates

    Barry Ritholtz
    2 Sep 2015 | 3:30 am
    Where every Fed member stands on raising interest rates     click through for complete list  Source: Marketwatch  
  • Fischer: U.S. Inflation Developments

    Guest Author
    2 Sep 2015 | 2:00 am
    U.S. Inflation Developments Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming August 29, 2015   I am delighted to be here in Jackson Hole in the company of such distinguished panelists and such a distinguished group of participants. I will focus my remarks today on forces–domestic and international–that have been holding down inflation in the United States,1 and some of the consequences of recent–primarily international–developments. Although the economy has continued to recover and the labor market is…
  • Star Birth in M83, the Southern Pinwheel Galaxy

    Barry Ritholtz
    1 Sep 2015 | 7:00 pm
    Source: Mashable
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    OUPblog

  • Etymology gleanings for August 2015

    Alice
    2 Sep 2015 | 5:30 am
    Linguists and polyglots I received a question about the greatest etymologists’ active mastery of foreign languages. It is true, as our correspondent indicated, that etymologists have to cast their nets wide and refer to many languages, mainly old (the deader, the better). So would the masters of the age gone by have felt comfortable while traveling abroad, that is, not in the tenth but in the nineteenth century? Probably few of them spoke many languages. Skeat, to give one example, was educated in Classics. I assume that his Latin and Greek were active. There is sufficient evidence that he…
  • Prepping for APSA 2015

    Sinead O’Connor
    2 Sep 2015 | 4:30 am
    This year’s American Political Science Association (APSA) Annual Meeting takes place September 3-6 in San Francisco, where over 6,000 of the world’s foremost academic political scientists will gather for four days of lectures, sessions, networking, and scholarly discussion. This year’s theme, “Diversities Reconsidered”, promises to ignite intellectual discussion among all participants while still staying grounded in the current state of the nation’s political climate. New to APSA 2015 is the 2015 APSA Annual Meeting app, available via the App Store, Google Play, BlackBerry…
  • How much do you know about Great Expectations? [Quiz]

    Amy Jelf
    2 Sep 2015 | 3:30 am
    Do you know your Magwitch from your Miss Havisham? Your Philip Pirrip from your Mr Pumblechook? Perhaps Dickens’s best-loved work, Great Expectations features memorable characters such as the convict Magwitch, the mysterious Miss Havisham and her proud ward Estella, as Pip unravels the mystery of his benefactor and of his own heart. Now that the third season of the Oxford World’s Classics Reading Group is drawing to a close, test your knowledge of Great Expectations with our tricky quiz. Quiz image credit:  Lace Tulle Skirt by MAKY_OREL. CC0 Public Domain via Pixabay. Featured…
  • “The discovery of a dead body”, extract from The Murder of William of Norwich

    Kim Behrens
    2 Sep 2015 | 2:30 am
    The discovery of the mutilated body of William of Norwich in 1144 soon sparked stories of a ritual murder performed by Jews that quickly spread beyond the walls of Norwich. E. M. Rose examines the events surrounding the murder and the ensuing court case, and launches a historical forensic analysis into the death. The following is an extract describing the discovery of William’s body. The story of the first ritual murder accusation begins with the discovery of a dead body. In March 1144, William, a young apprentice, was killed and left under a tree on the outskirts of Norwich. Finding a…
  • Meta-analysis of animal studies: a solution to animal waste

    Caroline Ariail
    2 Sep 2015 | 1:30 am
    Animal research has always attracted a lot of attention because it involves the welfare of animals being compromised. Given this pressure, you would expect that animal studies are performed according to the highest scientific standards; however, there are big methodological problems. Many studies don’t use sound practices like randomization and blinding, which are needed to get unbiased results. Almost everything that gets published is claimed to be significant. Unpublished studies may lead to unnecessary replication. All this results in a waste of animals, time, money, and medical…
 
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    Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

  • Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    2 Sep 2015 | 4:58 am
    (Don Boudreaux) Tweet… is from page 233 of Milton & Rose Friedman’s great 1980 book, Free To Choose (first emphasis original; second emphasis added): Moreover, the ability of unions to raise the wages of some workers does not mean that universal unionism could raise the wages of all workers.  On the contrary, and this is a fundamental source of misunderstanding, the gains that strong unions win for their members are primarily at the expense of other workers. The key to understanding the situation is the most elementary principle of economics: the law of demand – the higher…
  • Another Open Letter to Someone With A Fetish for Force

    Don Boudreaux
    1 Sep 2015 | 4:07 pm
    (Don Boudreaux) TweetMr. Bob Keener Business for a Fair Minimum Wage Dear Mr. Keener: In your latest e-mail proclaiming the alleged merits of a government-enforced rise in the minimum wage, you quote Doug Havron, owner of Gabby’s Burgers and Fries in Nashville, as saying that “Raising the minimum wage is good business.  Paying people good money leads to better service and self-motivated behaviors.  It is smart in the short and long run.” Because absolutely nothing prevents Mr. Havron from raising his workers’ pay now, and without being forced to do so by government, the fact that he…
  • Technology Enables Competition to Bloom and Destroy Monopoly

    Don Boudreaux
    1 Sep 2015 | 11:48 am
    (Don Boudreaux) TweetReason’s Jim Epstein just produced this superb video on how Uber is creatively destroying New York City’s baneful taxicab monopolization system.  A temptation is to feel sorrow or pity for taxicab-medallion owners whose personal wealth, insofar as it has been based on these medallions, is now plummeting.  Do not feel any sorrow or pity for these medallion owners.  The wealth they are now losing to competitive forces was the product of government-imposed unnecessary restrictions on competition – restrictions that, for 78 years now, have artificially…
  • Ed Stringham to Speak At GMU On His New Book

    Don Boudreaux
    1 Sep 2015 | 8:20 am
    (Don Boudreaux) TweetStarting at 2:00pm on Thursday (September 3), Ed Stringham (a GMU Econ alum) will discuss his newly published book, Private Governance.  The location is GMU’s Fairfax campus.  Here’s the summary of the event: Are all of the rules and regulations governing economic activity a product of central planning or legislation? To what extent does privately produced and enforced governance play a role? In his latest book, Edward Stringham argues that much of what is orderly in the economy can actually be attributed to governing mechanisms devised and enforced by…
  • Some Links

    Don Boudreaux
    1 Sep 2015 | 5:37 am
    (Don Boudreaux) TweetGlenn Reynolds, writing in USA Today, draws some lessons from Katrina and her ten-year aftermath. In this new Mercatus Center study, Robert Beekman and Brian Kench explores the economics of export subsidies of the sort doled out by that great geyser of cronyism, the U.S. Export-Import Bank.  A slice: Against that view [that the Ex-Im Bank adds positive value to the American economy by ‘leveling’ the global trading field], we offer a simple, open-economy trade model to demonstrate that there is, in fact, a deadweight loss in the domestic economy when a…
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    The D&S Blog

  • Our Annual Labor Issue is out!

    Chris Sturr
    1 Sep 2015 | 9:55 am
    Our September/October Annual Labor Issue is out!  (In time for Labor Day, for the first time in a long while!) We have emailed the full-color pdf to electronic subscribers and print subscribers should be getting their copies in the mail in the next few days.  See the full table of contents here. We have posted two articles from the new issue to the website: John Miller’s “Up Against the Wall Street Journal” column on German Wage Suppression, and Harry Konstantinidis’s “Making Sense” piece, What’s Next for Greece?. Konstantinidis talks about what…
  • On Its 80th Birthday, Securing Social Security

    Chris Sturr
    14 Aug 2015 | 7:35 am
    Today is the 80th anniversary of Social Security; here’s our book reviewer Steve Pressman’s review of Social Security Works!, from our current issue: Social Security Works! Why Social Security Isn’t Going Broke and How Expanding It Will Help Us All by Nancy J. Altman and Eric R. Kingston, with a Foreword by David Cay Johnston (New Press, 2015). BY STEVEN PRESSMAN President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed the Social Security Act nearly 80 years ago, on August 14, 1935. Since its inception, Social Security has had both strong defenders and harsh critics. Defenders see it as a…
  • Links: SEC and CEOs, Greece, Mexico, Trump, Salaita

    Chris Sturr
    11 Aug 2015 | 1:38 pm
      (1) Greece: In addition to the great video by Alicé Anil embedded above (well worth watching; includes clips with Krugman, Stiglitz, and Rick Wolff!), whose “Know Bullshit!” project looks great, these items were of interest: Adam Davidson, New York Times Magazine, Why Greece’s Lenders Have to Suffer.  I find it bizarre that Adam Davidson, whose work is usually pretty clueless, wrote this insightful piece. Maybe the conversation he had with Doug Henwood back in June 2012 has sunk in somehow? John Weeks, Triple Crisis, Third Bailout and the Third Punic War. From…
  • Links on Cops, Wage Stagnation, Phil Gramm, etc.

    Chris Sturr
    29 Jul 2015 | 1:02 pm
    (1) Cops:  I just posted Kristian Williams’ article in our current issue, Poverty Crime, Privileged Crime: Policing and Economic Inequality.  You might remember an earlier piece he wrote for us: Cops for Labor (D&S, Sept/Oct 2011), which I thought of when I saw a piece by Mario Vasquez at Working In These Times, Univ. of California Academic Workers’ Union Calls on AFL-CIO To Terminate Police Union’s Membership.  Sounds like a great idea. (2) Revisionism Thwarted: Jordan Weissman, Slate, No, This Graph Does Not Prove That Everything Is Fine With American Capitalism.
  • Report from Greece, plus more links on Greece

    Chris Sturr
    16 Jul 2015 | 1:56 pm
    (1) When Greece Bailed Out Germany: Via Portside, the image above was the “poster of the week” recently from the Center for the Study of Political Graphics, which organizes traveling exhibitions, including Art Against Empire: Graphic Responses to US Interventions Since World War II: The U.S. inaugurated The Marshall Plan (officially the European Recovery Program, ERP) to rebuild Western Europe and counter the appeal of communism. Named after Secretary of State George Marshall, the plan ran from 1948-1952 and helped rebuild the economies of Western Europe on a capitalist model.
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    Credit Slips

  • Central Bank Alter-Ego Theory Rejected

    Mark Weidemaier
    31 Aug 2015 | 2:29 pm
    This ruling, handed down today by the Second Circuit, may spell the end of one phase of the NML litigation. For some time, the plaintiffs have been trying to find a way to seize assets held by Argentina's central bank. Their latest effort sought an order declaring that Banco Central is an alter ego of Argentina, at least insofar as U.S. law is concerned. The effect of such an order would be to eliminate the bank's claim to be treated as a separate legal entity, making it liable for the government's debts. I understand that Banco Central has already moved most if not all of its…
  • Yep, 800,000 Bankruptcy Filings This Year

    Bob Lawless
    26 Aug 2015 | 12:16 pm
    My blogging has been light the past few months as we have been working on the eighth edition of what will now be LoPucki, Warren & Lawless, Secured Transactions: A Systems Approach. For you secured transactions teachers out there, we have returned a first set of page proofs and everything looks on track for publication later this year well in advance of the spring semester. To get back into the blogging swing of things, I go to where else . . . bankruptcy filing data. Back in January, I predicted that total 2015 bankruptcy filings for the U.S. would be "somewhere around…
  • Venue (Again)

    Stephen Lubben
    26 Aug 2015 | 11:42 am
    Some thoughts on the latest dustup over venue in big chapter 11 cases, on Dealb%k.
  • Puerto Rico Seeks Help From the Supreme Court

    Melissa Jacoby
    22 Aug 2015 | 7:07 am
    Puerto Rico is asking the U.S. Supreme Court to review the First Circuit decision that Puerto Rico's Recovery Act is preempted and thus unconstitutional. Here's the petition. In addition to parsing the legal issues, the petition is framed around Puerto Rico's financial emergency, the need for the Supreme Court to step in notwithstanding the lack of circuit split (or even a dissent to the First Circuit ruling). It makes sense that Puerto Rico would challenge a ruling making it harder for the Commonwealth, in a nebulous legal zone, to write laws to solve its problems. The…
  • New personal insolvency laws cover (almost) all of Europe

    Jason Kilborn
    19 Aug 2015 | 9:55 am
    This summer saw a flurry of legislative activity in Europe with respect to personal bankruptcy. New laws emerged in Cyprus, Romania, Hungary, and (though it is not an EU Member State) Russia. These laws differ substantially among each other and from earlier models, which will give me a lot to write about in the coming years, but it is notable that the list of non-adopters in Europe is rapidly dwindling. Only Bulgaria, Malta, and the newest EU Member State, Croatia, lack such a law, and at least in Croatia, the subject has been on the legislative docket recently. It will really be interesting…
 
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    The Aleph Blog

  • Plan and Act, Don’t React

    David Merkel
    2 Sep 2015 | 2:57 am
    Photo Credit: Steve JurvetsonAn investor can and should learn from the past.  He should never react to the recent past.  Why?  The past can’t be changed, but it can be known.  Reacting to the recent past leads investors into the valleys of greed and regret — good investments missed, bad investments incurred.We’ve been in a relatively volatile environment for the last two weeks or so.  Markets are down, with a lot of noise over China, and slowing global growth.  Boo!The markets were too complacent for too long, and valuations were/are higher than they should be, given…
  • The Surprise Dividend

    David Merkel
    1 Sep 2015 | 2:35 am
    Photo Credit: Simon CunninghamThis is just a “what if” piece. If one of my readers knows better than me, leave a comment, or email me. Thanks.The Surprise DividendImagine one day in 2019 that your favorite dividend-paying stock made the following announcement:Dear Shareholder,As you may know, we currently pay a dividend of $2/year to holders of our common stock for each share they hold.  In this current climate where there is uncertainty over whether dividends will be cut at some companies, we would like to guarantee the current payout, and give you more.We are replacing the…
  • We Still Have a Buck in the Till; We’re Solvent!

    David Merkel
    29 Aug 2015 | 10:55 pm
    Photo Credit: Luz BratcherImagine that you are in the position of a high cost crude oil producer that has a lot of debt to service.  The price that you can sell your oil for is high enough that you make some cash over your variable cost.  The price is low enough that you are not recouping the cost of what you paid to buy the right to develop the oil, the development cost, and cost of equity capital employed.In this awkward situation you continue to produce oil, because it may keep you from defaulting on your debts, even though you are not earning what is needed to justify the GAAP book…
  • The Importance of Your Time Horizon

    David Merkel
    28 Aug 2015 | 11:25 pm
    Photo Credit: Dr. Wendy Longo || This horizon is distant…I ran across two interesting articles today:Volatility Doesn’t Equal Loss—Unless You Sell from Oppenheimer Funds, andBuying the Dips Doesn’t Work for Everyone by the estimable Jason Zweig.Both articles are exercises in understanding the time horizon over which you invest.  If you are older, you may not have the time to recover from market shortfalls, so advice to buy dips may sound hollow when you are nearer to drawing on your assets.Thus the idea that volatility, presumably negative, doesn’t hurt unless you…
  • When to Deploy Capital

    27 Aug 2015 | 2:23 am
    Photo Credit: edkohler || Buy Now and smile!One of my clients asked me what I think is a hard question: When should I deploy capital?  I’ll try to answer that here.There are three main things to consider in using cash to buy or sell assets:What is your time horizon?  When will you likely need the money for spending purposes?How promising is the asset in question?  What do you think it might return vs alternatives, including holding cash?How safe is the asset in question?  Will it survive to the end of your time horizon under almost all circumstances and at least preserve value while…
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    Quoting the Crisis

  • Greece’s final bailout deal just confirms what an...

    11 Aug 2015 | 3:35 am
    Greece’s final bailout deal just confirms what an agonising waste the last eight months have been Mike Bird, businessinsider.com A month after agreeing on the main points of a bailout deal, the final terms of the country’s third European bailout are now practically agreed.Since 2010 the country’s finances have been in disarray, and with access to international markets…
  • 6 in 10 Americans Will Experience Poverty Jackie Zimmermann,...

    25 Jul 2015 | 6:53 am
    6 in 10 Americans Will Experience Poverty Jackie Zimmermann, time.com It turns out there may be more fluidity between the haves and the have-nots than we previously thought.Over a lifetime, most Americans will experience at least a year of relative poverty, says a new study.Between the ages of 25 and 60, over …
  • Greece Really Should Leave The Euro, The Economics Is Entirely...

    25 Jul 2015 | 6:51 am
    Greece Really Should Leave The Euro, The Economics Is Entirely Clear Here Tim Worstall, forbes.com That Greece should leave the euro is something that is pretty much established as the revealed truth in Anglo-Saxon economic and commentary circles. Sadly it is not so established either in European economic circles nor in any political ones.…
  • Former AIG CEO wins bailout lawsuit, but court awards no...

    15 Jun 2015 | 7:33 pm
    Former AIG CEO wins bailout lawsuit, but court awards no damages By Jim Puzzanghera, latimes.com WASHINGTON — A federal judge ruled that regulators went too far in taking a huge stake in American International Group Inc. as part of its 2008 bailout, but he decided that damages weren’t warranted for the giant insurer’s former chief executive a…
  • Inequality Matters Jared Bernstein and Ben Spielberg,...

    5 Jun 2015 | 11:56 am
    Inequality Matters Jared Bernstein and Ben Spielberg, theatlantic.com Conservative commentators have been arguing that the uneven distribution of wealth and income in America isn’t a problem. They’re wrong.Lately, one argument that’s been making the rounds is that people should worry less about inequality and mor…
 
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    IMF Survey Magazine

  • Blanchard: Looking Forward, Looking Back

    31 Aug 2015 | 8:07 am
    Olivier Blanchard will step down as Economic Counsellor and Director of the IMF's Research Department at the end of September. In an interview, Blanchard talks about global economic issues, the IMF's role in furthering economic and financial stability, and what it was like to be in the hot-seat job of chief economist.
  • F&D Magazine Examines Latin America Beset by Slowing Growth

    27 Aug 2015 | 9:54 am
    Latin American nations, along with emerging market economies around the world, enjoyed stellar growth between 2004 and 2013, stumbling only briefly during the 2008-09 financial crisis that engulfed the United States and Europe.
  • China’s Transition to Slower But Better Growth

    14 Aug 2015 | 6:06 pm
    China is moving to a “new normal,” of slower yet safer and more sustainable growth. This involves giving the market a more decisive role in the economy, says the IMF in its annual assessment of the economy.
  • Spain: Maintaining the Strong Growth Momentum

    14 Aug 2015 | 7:00 am
    Spain enjoys a remarkable rebound in economic activity, but sustaining job-rich growth over the medium term will require continued policy efforts, says the IMF’s annual review of the country.
  • Jordan’s Economy Sees Progress Despite Series of Shocks

    5 Aug 2015 | 10:34 am
    Jordan has made good headway toward stabilizing its economy in the face of a series of severe external shocks.
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    The Baseline Scenario

  • Alphabet: Less Than Meets the Eye

    James Kwak
    11 Aug 2015 | 6:27 am
    By James Kwak The reorganization of Google into Alphabet means … well, not very much, at least for now. Instead of everything being inside one big corporation called Google, now there will be a bunch of corporations (one of them called Google) all owned by a holding company called Alphabet. “Holding company,” in this case, means that Alphabet will have no operations of its own: it will be a corporation that simply owns all the other corporations. This is supposed to have something to do with making the company “cleaner and more accountable,” “empowering great entrepreneurs and…
  • So Tom Hayes Is Guilty. Who Else Is?

    James Kwak
    4 Aug 2015 | 1:30 pm
    By James Kwak Tom Hayes was a trader at UBS and Citigroup who was very, very good … at rigging LIBOR. This week, he was convicted in the United Kingdom of conspiring to manipulate the benchmark interest rate and sentenced to fourteen years in prison. There’s little doubt that Hayes was guilty as charged. In his defense, he argued that he had no idea what he was doing was wrong. But contrary to what some armchair attorneys think, that doesn’t matter. In general, the famous mens rea (guilty mind) requirement isn’t that you know you are breaking the law at the time; it suffices if (a)…
  • More Misinformation about Banking Regulation

    James Kwak
    21 Jul 2015 | 1:22 pm
    By James Kwak “Fed Tells Big Banks to Shrink or Else,” the Wall Street Journal proclaimed in the headline of its lead story today.* If only. What the Federal Reserve actually did is impose new, additional capital requirements for the largest banks. JPMorgan Chase, for example, will have to hold 4.5 percentage points more capital than it would have had to otherwise. This is clearly a good thing, since it means that the banks that could do the most damage to the financial system will be a little bit safer. But it is neither a complete solution, nor is it the draconian constraint that the…
  • Friedrich Hayek Supported a Guaranteed Minimum Income

    James Kwak
    20 Jul 2015 | 12:21 pm
    By James Kwak “We shall again take for granted the availability of a system of public relief which provides a uniform minimum for all instances of proved need, so that no member of the community need be in want of food or shelter.” That’s from The Constitution of Liberty, “definitive edition,” p. 424. Yes, it comes as part of Hayek’s argument against mandatory state unemployment insurance. But it reflects a fundamental understanding that no one should go without food or shelter, and that it is the duty of the government to ensure this minimum level of existence. “The necessity…
  • I Agree with Milton Friedman!

    James Kwak
    15 Jun 2015 | 11:02 am
    By James Kwak In Capitalism and Freedom, Milton Friedman asks what types of inequality are ethically justifiable. In particular (pp. 164–66): “Inequality resulting from differences in personal capacities, or from differences in wealth accumulated by the individual in question, are considered appropriate, or at least not so clearly inappropriate as differences resulting from inherited wealth. “This distinction is untenable. Is there any greater ethical justification for the high returns to the individual who inherits from his parents a peculiar voice for which there is a great demand…
 
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    Trends... Find them, ride them and get off.

  • The ‘Gig’ Bear Market of 2015 …and the Bull Market in Volatility of Volatility

    Howard Lindzon
    1 Sep 2015 | 11:49 am
    It was just a matter of time. With Uber at $50 billion and Airbnb at $30 billion the markets need a big breather. Hopefully, this boom is just on hold while we give the bears a ‘gig’. On Fred’s Blog today he talks about the transition from a resource based economy to a service based economy. Read it. We need resources like always but it’s been an enormous shift in productivity and resource usage and there is NO turning back. The markets seem to marking this period with it’s own panic of sort. We are witnessing an all-time high in the volatility of volatility. On…
  • The Stock Market has it’s own Daily Fantasy Drafts – NO skill needed

    Howard Lindzon
    1 Sep 2015 | 10:29 am
    Daily Fantasy Trading has arrived on Wall Street. Today I am trading The New England Patriots. The team has been red 3 days in a row and down 50 percent so I assume a press conference will be called denying allegations of blowing up balls. Here is the chart: I know…this is not a chart of The New England Patriots post ‘deflategate’. This is DWTI. It is marketed as 3x inverse the price of oil. In english that should mean if oil is up 3 percent, this security (ticker) would be down 9 percent. Obviously there are fees. The fees though are ridiculous. Today oil is down…
  • The Stock Market and Wall Street is Set up to Hack You….

    Howard Lindzon
    31 Aug 2015 | 6:18 pm
    You do not need to hack the stock market to make outsized returns (thanks Eddy). But, the politicians, economists, the FED, the banks and the financial product creators are out to hack you. They will take your money quickly or slowly. The house has patience and lot’s of fees. I can’t believe some of the stuff I have seen in the mainstream financial press these days. The bullishness and the bearishness seem so smug and confident. I trust neither. May I remind everyone..there was no prediction for $30 oil when oil was $100. There was a world wide web full of ‘peak oil’…
  • Markets in ‘Turmoil’ are Opportunities…and Writing Works

    Howard Lindzon
    27 Aug 2015 | 5:13 pm
    Writing works. It keeps me organized. As an investor, I did not really start consistent progress until I started the blog in 2005. I am not as consistent the last year on the blog but it comes in handy when I need to organize my thoughts and focus on a trade or investment. My passion for publishing was the reason I started Stocktwits. It was inspired by Twitter as the lightest way I could think of to journal about stocks and markets. It really helped me last weekend as the panic was setting into US markets. I really did grimace when I saw on the stream that CNBC was doing a special on…
  • Stocktwits a Best New App in Apple’s App Store and Growing Fast

    Howard Lindzon
    26 Aug 2015 | 7:44 am
    Stocktoberfest is right around the corner and we have some huge announcements for Stocktwits product at the event. The link above has the details and if you love investing you should be at the event. So many great sponsors have stepped up to help us take it to a higher level with speakers and content. Amazon Web Services has taken the lead (most fintech startups are relying on AWS) and also brought along Broadridge and OurCrowd. Right now the team at Stocktwits is experiencing the fastest growth in our history. Our Apple iOS app has been featured as a ‘best new’ app in the store…
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    Economic Principals

  • “A small cloud, no bigger than a man’s hand…” 

    dw
    30 Aug 2015 | 1:30 pm
    The prophet Elijah’s most famous forecast (I Kings 18:44) – the sudden storm, deduced from inconspicuous change, that ended a three-year drought – became a cliché in business journalism in the 1970s, as one industry after another was overtaken by rapid change that it hadn’t anticipated. There were no such metaphors in economics – an outgrowth of the conviction summed up by Alfred Marshall’s motto, Natura non facit saltum – Nature makes no leaps. For economists educated in marginalism and the differential calculus, it was an entirely natural way of thinking of the world. Thus…
  • Life Is Not Fair

    dw
    23 Aug 2015 | 1:53 pm
    Terry Vaughn, a distinguished and widely-admired economics editor, died unexpectedly earlier this month in Princeton, N.J., of a stroke.  He was 68. Peter Dougherty, director of Princeton University Press, prepared a summary of his friend’s publishing career: Terry began… in 1971 as a sales representative for the then-college department at Oxford University Press.  He served as Eastern Regional Sales Manager and as Acting National Sales Manager at OUP until 1984, when he left for Boston, and had a one-year stint as an international treasury consultant at Digital Equipment in Acton,…
  • The Machine that Changed the World

    dw
    16 Aug 2015 | 6:05 pm
      The rivalry between Paul Samuelson and Milton Friedman continued to the 1970s, but it shifted to new ground – to developments in the rapidly-expanding field of finance.   Samuelson was an active contributor, both with the research he described as his “Sunday painting,” and as a market participant. Friedman was more reluctant convert, but still managed to have a major impact, as godfather to the Chicago risk markets. The new discipline was even quicker than the economics profession to adopt the Arrow tools and put them to practical use. Developments in finance unfolded apace…
  • The Scotchman Returns To The Model, Acuity Greatly Enhanced

    dw
    9 Aug 2015 | 12:19 pm
    Before continuing, let me take a moment to remind EP readers of why this serial assumed the form it has – a form that may at times have seemed wayward. My aim all along has been to explain what MIT-trained Ben Bernanke meant when he said in 2002, “You were right, Milton, we did it [caused the Great Depression], and, thanks to you, we won’t do it again.” I aim, too, to show how it was that the MIT theorist who inherited Paul Samuelson’s office (and the professorial chair named for him) and a banking historian from Yale who, for a dozen years, spent a day a week in the risk markets at…
  • A New Magnifier

    dw
    2 Aug 2015 | 1:30 pm
    Two volumes of Paul Samuelson’s Collected Scientific Papers appeared in 1966, 129 articles, 1,831 pages, published by the MIT Press. Samuelson was only fifty-one. To some it might have seemed premature, but then some part of the point must have been shock and awe: to demonstrate how far economists had come since Harvard had destroyed the plates of Foundations of Economic Analysis. The economist to whom the Journal of Political Economy, the University of Chicago’s flagship journal, turned to review the volumes was Kenneth Arrow, of Stanford University. He was not an obvious choice.  He…
 
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    Marginal REVOLUTION

  • The paradox of no market response

    Tyler Cowen
    1 Sep 2015 | 10:39 pm
    There seems to be genuine uncertainty about what the Fed will do, or not do, this September. At a superficial glance, the good news scenario is if the Fed’s decision doesn’t matter much for the markets.  Woe unto you if your economy is so fragile that a quarter point or so in the short rate, mixed in with some cheap talk, were to matter so much. So if at first prices were to stay steady, following any Fed decision, then equities should jump in price.  That is the “no news is good news” theory, so to speak.  It’s a better state of the world if it is common…
  • A simple primer for understanding China’s downturn

    Tyler Cowen
    1 Sep 2015 | 9:54 pm
    I’ve covered these ideas before a number of times, but now the Chinese slowdown is common knowledge, so let’s put them in one place: 1. You can’t invest 45-50 percent of your gdp very well forever.  It’s amazing how long China’s run has been, but it is over.  The quality of their marginal investments is now low and that means their growth rate will be much lower too.  The low hanging fruit is gone, at least for the time being.  They might later on resurrect some new low-hanging fruit through institutional reform, we’ll see if they end up stuck in the…
  • Who amongst us knew that Gillian Tett wrote with Ernest Gellner?

    Tyler Cowen
    1 Sep 2015 | 12:40 pm
    Her new The Silo Effect: The Peril of Expertise and the Promise of Breaking Down Barriers is a tour de force of economics, anthropology, Pierre Bourdieu, management theory, and anecdotes about Sony and Facebook and UBS and Cleveland Clinic. It turns out Gillian wrote her doctoral thesis in anthropology on Islamic marriage practices in Tajikistan.
  • How many manufacturing jobs pay less than $15 an hour?

    Tyler Cowen
    1 Sep 2015 | 11:23 am
    In Mississippi, 7.3% of all workers in the state are manufacturing workers who make less than $15 an hour. Losing many of these jobs would have a serious negative impact on the state. Because of its sample size, the CPS is of more limited use for small geographies. However, there is a relatively large number of observations for Los Angeles County, CA. Almost 400,000 manufacturing workers live in the county, and 55% of them make less than $15 an hour. Many of these workers will be affected by $15 minimum wages that have been approved for the City of Los Angeles and the unincorporated parts of…
  • What should I ask Luigi Zingales?

    Tyler Cowen
    1 Sep 2015 | 10:14 am
    I will be doing a Conversations with Tyler with Luigi next Wednesday, eight days from now (do sign up!).  He is a brilliant and multi-faceted economist, and an Italian — what should I ask him?
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    Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality

  • Links

    J. Bradford DeLong
    6 Sep 2015 | 9:27 pm
    Links: Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Base Versus Base Rob Stavins: A Key Element for the Forthcoming Paris Climate Agreement Martin Wolf: China Risks an Economic Discontinuity Aliyah Dar and Douglas Pyper: Zero-Hours Contracts Peter L. Singer: Federally-Supported Innovations Must-Read: Mark Thoma: Syllabus for Monetary Theory and Policy Josh Lederman and Mark Thiessen: "President Barack Obama says he's changing the name of the tallest mountain in North America from Mount McKinley to Denali..." Must-Read: Michael Burda: Dispelling Three…
  • No, the Federal Reserve Is Not a Market Manipulator

    J. Bradford DeLong
    2 Sep 2015 | 6:10 am
    Over at Equitable Growth: Let me pile on to something Paul Krugman published last week, and make fun of William Cohan for writing and the New York Times for publishing hopelessly confused austerity pseudonomics: Paul Krugman: Artificial Unintelligence: "In the early stages of the Lesser Depression... everywhere you looked, people who imagined themselves sophisticated and possessed of deep understanding were resurrecting 75-year-old fallacies and presenting them as deep insights.... [Now] I feel an even deeper sense of despair--because people are still rolling out those same fallacies... So…
  • Martin Wolf and I See the Odds on the Different Future Chinas Somewhat Differently

    J. Bradford DeLong
    2 Sep 2015 | 5:04 am
    Over at Equitable Growth Martin Wolf calls himself a long-run China optimist--that China is more likely than not following the Korean road, is now where Korea was in the early 1980s, and: South Korea’s real GDP per head has since nearly quadrupled in real terms, to reach almost 70 per cent of US levels. If China became as rich as Korea, its economy would be bigger than those of the US and Europe combined... Last week for the Huffington Post I gave my case for China pessimism: that what Japan, Korea, Spain--even Singapore--demonstrate is that escaping the middle-income trap requires…
  • 2 Sep 2015 | 4:15 am

    J. Bradford DeLong
    2 Sep 2015 | 4:15 am
    Must-Read: As time passes, there seems to be less and less technocrat rationale for the policy of cutting back the social insurance state in order to keep the taxes on the rich low. Yet that does not appear to do anything to weaken pressures putting for politicians to endorse such policies--even at a very cost in terms of being in synch with their electoral base: Paul Krugman: Base Versus Base: "‘This is an impressive crowd... ...the haves and the have-mores. Some people call you the elites; I call you my base." -- George W. Bush Ezra Klein... on [how] The Donald... representat['s]... the…
  • Economist's View: Syllabus for Monetary Theory and Policy

    J. Bradford DeLong
    2 Sep 2015 | 4:08 am
    Must-Read: Mark Thoma: Syllabus for Monetary Theory and Policy: "Everyone seems to be posting the syllabus... ...for the graduate courses they are teaching this fall. Mine is simple. In my Monetary Theory and Policy course we are going to go through this book by Jordi Gali (don't tell anyone I actually know this stuff): Jordi Gali: Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2015/09/syllabus-for-monetary-theory-and-policy.html
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    99% Invisible

  • 179- Bathysphere

    Roman Mars
    1 Sep 2015 | 9:00 pm
    In 1860, a chance find at sea forever changed our understanding of marine habitats, sparking an unprecedented push to explore a new world of possibilities far below the surface of our planet’s oceans. Deep sea life, previously thought possible down to a maximum depth of 1,800 feet, was found in the form of creatures attached to a transatlantic telegraph cable. Raised for repair from its resting place some 6,000 feet down on the ocean floor, the line was covered with marine species. This paradigm-shifting revelation sparked the public’s imagination, fueled global scientific…
  • 178- The Great Restoration

    Roman Mars
    25 Aug 2015 | 10:45 pm
    Stirling, Scotland is the home of Stirling Castle, which sits atop a giant crag, or hill, overlooking the whole town of Stirling. There has been a castle on that hill since the 12th century at least, and maybe before, but the current buildings date from the 15th and 16th centuries. When we think of medieval castles we usually picture a grand structure, with subdued, dark stone masonry. But when you gaze upon Stirling Castle today from the town below, you will notice that one of the buildings is different from the others. Since 1999, after a decade long restoration effort that altered the…
  • 177- Lawn Order

    Roman Mars
    18 Aug 2015 | 9:00 pm
    In communities across America, lawns that are brown or overgrown are considered especially heinous. Elite squads of dedicated individuals have been deputized by their local governments or homeowners’ associations to take action against those whose lawns fail to meet community standards. Call them—lawn enforcement agents. There’s a paradox to the lawn. On the one hand, it is the pedestal on which sits the greatest symbol of the American Dream, the home, which people can ostensibly govern however they wish. And yet—homeowner often have almost no control over how they should maintain…
  • 176- Hard to Love a Brute

    Roman Mars
    11 Aug 2015 | 8:46 pm
    No matter which James Bond actor is your favorite, it’s undeniable that the Sean Connery films had the best villains. There’s Blofeld, who turned cat-stroking into a thing that super-villains do, and then there’s Goldfinger—Bond’s flashiest nemesis. Fun fact: the author of the James Bond books, Ian Fleming, named Goldfinger for a real person—an architect by the name of Ernő Goldfinger, who made giant, hulking, austere concrete buildings. Fleming disliked these buildings so intensely that he immortalized their architect as a villain in pop culture. This divide—this…
  • 175- The Sunshine Hotel

    Roman Mars
    4 Aug 2015 | 9:03 pm
    The Bowery, in lower Manhattan, is one of New York’s oldest neighborhoods. It’s been through a lot of iterations. In the 1650s, a handful of freed slaves were the neighborhood’s first residents. At the time, New York was still a Dutch colony called New Amsterdam, and the Lower East Side was farm land. In the early 1800s, The Bowery had become a bustling thoroughfare with elegant theaters, and taverns, and shops. But by the late 1800s it had become a much seedier place, full of saloons, and dance halls, and prostitution. By the 1940s, The Bowery had become New York’s skid row—a…
 
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    Eat the Bankers.com

  • Beverly, Hills That Is

    Sinclair Noe
    1 Sep 2015 | 4:01 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-01-2015 DOW – 469 = 16,058 SPX – 58 = 1913 NAS – 140 = 4636 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.17% OIL – 4.99 = 44.21 GOLD + 5.40 = 1140.80 SILV – .01 = 14.72   Another rough day for stocks across the world after twin surveys showed China’s manufacturing sector in the grip of its worst slump in several years. Asian stocks slumped on the first trading day of September, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 index chalking up a near 4 percent loss into correction territory. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped as much as 3.2 percent. The major US…
  • It Was All Yellow

    Sinclair Noe
    31 Aug 2015 | 4:01 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-31-2015 DOW – 114 = 16,528 SPX – 16 = 1972 NAS – 51 = 4776 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.20% OIL + 2.80 = 48.02 GOLD + .60 = 1135.40 SILV + .04 = 14.73   Both the Dow and S&P had five days of gains or losses of more than 2 percent in August, making it the most volatile month in nearly four years. In August, the S&P lost 6.3 percent, the Dow fell 6.6 percent and the Nasdaq declined 6.9 percent. As far as Augusts go, this has been the worst performance for the Dow in 17 years. Overall it was the sixth worst monthly performance for the Dow and…
  • Do Computers Dream of Algorithmic Capitulation?

    Sinclair Noe
    28 Aug 2015 | 3:14 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-28-2015 DOW – 11 = 16,643 SPX + 1 = 1988 NAS + 15 = 4828 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.19% OIL + 2.71 = 45.27 GOLD + 8.30 = 1134.80 SILV + .08 = 14.70   The week roared in like a lion and left like a lamb. For the week, the Dow gained 1.1 percent, the S&P rose 0.9 percent and the Nasdaq added 2.6 percent. Go figure. Panicked selling on Monday and Tuesday gave way to a rush to buy on Wednesday and Thursday.  And for many investors, it was just too much. Equity funds saw $29.5 billion head for the exits, the largest weekly outflow on record. On…
  • Bobby Monks

    Sinclair Noe
    28 Aug 2015 | 3:11 pm
    Sinclair Noe audio interview with Bobby Monks, author of: “Uninvested: How Wall Street Hijacks Your Money and How to Fight Back” The post Bobby Monks appeared first on Eat the Bankers.com.
  • Better Than We Thought

    Sinclair Noe
    27 Aug 2015 | 4:13 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-27-2015 DOW + 369 = 16,654 SPX + 47 = 1987 NAS + 115 = 4812 10 YR YLD un = 2.17% OIL + 4.03 = 42.63 GOLD + .10 = 1126.50 SILV + .41 = 14.62   Yesterday Wall Street cracked a six-day losing streak with its best rally in nearly four years. Today, traders piled on; the two-day total, 978 points on the Dow industrials and the best two-day percentage gain since the crisis of 2008; which wipes out Monday’s losses, but still leaves the Dow down from one week ago. On the longer-term charts, Monday and Tuesday dropped below the lows of last October at…
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    iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

  • The Road to Lima: Paved with Blogs

    iMFdirect
    2 Sep 2015 | 7:52 am
    By iMFdirect This year’s IMF Annual Meetings are going on the road…to Lima, Peru.  All the big debates will focus on economics, finance, inequality, financial inclusion, emerging markets, commodities and many more. Since you’ve been reading gossip magazines at the beach busy this summer, we thought you might like a handy refresher on some of our blogs in recent months about Latin America. Making Monetary Policy Decisions in the Dark From Windfall to Windmill: Harnessing Asia’s Dynamism for Latin America Financial Stability Committees: Learning from the Experts Raising Long-Run…
  • Olivier Blanchard’s Greatest Hits

    iMFdirect
    31 Aug 2015 | 7:11 am
    By iMFdirect For a man who declared on his arrival at the IMF “I do not blog,” Olivier Blanchard, our soon-to-be former Chief Economist, is one hell of a blogger. Prolific and popular. A demi-god: half economist, half artist.  Blanchard writes the way he thinks: sharp, frank, and intellectual, while pushing against the edges of his métier with the creativity and honesty of a singular economist. To mark his departure, we’ve pulled together some of the most read and talked about of his blogs for iMFdirect over the years. Greece: Past Critiques and the Path Forward Greece: A Credible…
  • Under Pressure

    iMFdirect
    27 Aug 2015 | 11:20 am
    By Jeff Hayden Between 2004 and 2013, Latin America recorded impressive growth and strong progress on a range of social issues. High commodity prices combined with strengthened economic management and progressive social policies to propel the region forward. This strength was all the more striking against the backdrop of the 2008–09 global financial crisis, which mired many advanced economies in recession but saw emerging markets, including many in Latin America, power ahead. This led some observers to dub the period the “Latin American decade.” Now, as the world’s economic leaders…
  • Foreign Help Wanted: Easing Japan’s Labor Shortages

    iMFdirect
    24 Aug 2015 | 8:00 am
    By Giovanni Ganelli and Naoko Miake (Version in 日本語) Take a walk in Tokyo, and you will see the sign スタッフ募集中, or “Staff Wanted”, outside many restaurants and convenience stores. These businesses often find it impossible to recruit the workers they need. According to recent statistics, for each job seeker in Japan applying to work as a waiter, there are more than three available positions. Home helpers and long-term caregivers are equally in demand. If you want to work as a security guard, you can choose from around five openings, and for some positions in the…
  • Banking Union Before Euro Adoption: Flak Jacket or Straitjacket?

    iMFdirect
    19 Aug 2015 | 7:03 am
    By John Bluedorn, Anna Ilyina and Plamen Iossifov All European Union members, except Denmark and the United Kingdom, are expected under EU treaties to eventually adopt the euro. Six Central and Eastern EU members – Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania – are yet to do so. In the meantime, these countries have a decision to make: Should they opt in to the Banking Union before adopting the euro? Such a move may offer greater insurance against shocks, but at a certain cost to policy flexibility.  In a recent study, we explore some of the trade-offs that countries…
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    WordPress.com News

  • A Niche of Their Own: Five Sites to Check Out Today

    Ben Huberman
    2 Sep 2015 | 8:00 am
    The blogging community is huge and diverse, with thousands of smaller clusters of sites built around shared interests, causes, and passions. It might seem daunting at first — like walking into a party where everyone already seems to know each other — but there are a number of ways to ease your entry into the community, from participating in a blogging event (or even starting your own) to taking one of our free blogging courses. As the bloggers we feature here demonstrate, there’s another way to find your place in the big, wide world of blogging: zoom in on one thing…
  • New Themes: Colinear and Franklin

    Ernesto Méndez
    27 Aug 2015 | 9:00 am
    On this Theme Thursday, we have two new free themes for you: Colinear and Franklin. Colinear Colinear — our update to the older Coraline — is a squeaky-clean theme featuring a custom menu, header, background, and layout. Colinear supports featured images and six widget areas — up to three in the sidebar and three in the footer. Primarily designed for magazine-style sites, Colinear is a flexible theme that also suits any personal blog or content-rich site. Check out Colinear on the Theme Showcase, or activate it on your site. Franklin Franklin is a lightweight blogging theme,…
  • Introducing: Our New Action Bar

    Andy Peatling
    26 Aug 2015 | 11:10 am
    We strive to make all aspects of using WordPress.com streamlined and intuitive, from following a great new blog to editing a post on the go. Today, we’re happy to present the new action bar, which allows you to do all this (and more) no matter what device you’re on. Following and more When you visit a site you’re not yet following, look to the bottom-right corner of the screen and you’ll see this: Clicking on Follow will make it so new posts from that site will appear in the WordPress.com Reader. Becoming a new follower has never been easier, whether you or your…
  • Get Up to Speed at learn.wordpress.com

    Krista
    26 Aug 2015 | 9:00 am
    If you just started a spandy new WordPress blog or site and want to work on setup and configuration in your spare time, we’ve recently refreshed a resource that might be just the thing for you: learn.wordpress.com. Have you just created a blog or website to: Showcase a personal project? Maybe you’re working on a photo-a-day project, some short stories, poetry, or a memoir? Highlight your business’ offerings and attract new customers? Promote an organization and want to know how to get connected to potential supporters on social media? No matter the reason you created that…
  • Next Stop for Accelerate.LGBT: Dublin, Ireland

    Anne McCarthy
    21 Aug 2015 | 8:00 am
    Automattic, the company behind WordPress.com, is committed to diversity: providing a platform for everyone to publish on the web and building a diverse, distributed workforce around the world. A collaborative effort between Accelerate with Google and Automattic, the Accelerate.LGBT conference series is designed to help diverse businesses and nonprofits optimize their web presence, empowering professionals through focused workshops and hands-on, one-on-one support from Automattic and Google employees. We held our first event in San Francisco this past April, which was a great success.
 
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    EconomicPolicyJournal.com

  • Solar Industry Admits Green Energy Only Exists Thanks To Government Subsidies

    2 Sep 2015 | 8:20 am
    By Jeffrey Dorfman For at least the last thirty years the alternative energy industry has been claiming they are almost ready to be economically competitive with fossil fuel. Wind, solar, geothermal, and others keep begging for government subsidies to help them stay afloat until they can reach a size at which economies of scale kicks in, price per kilowatt hour drops, and then they can survive
  • Walter Block: Bryan Caplan Beat Me in Debate on Austrian Economics

    2 Sep 2015 | 7:38 am
    Dear Bryan: I’m blogging this. As far as I’m concerned, you won this debate August 24, 2015. Debate: Walter Block versus Bryan Caplan on Austrian  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHIm2NRvcAQ True, I set a bit of a high bar for myself. In my view, I could only win if I converted you to Austrian economics. I did not do that, so at least in my own mind I lost the debate. But, please,
  • EPJ Bestselling Books in the Month of August 2015

    2 Sep 2015 | 6:01 am
    Combined list for EconomicPolicyJournal.com and Target Liberty. HOT 1.  Science, Technology, and Government by Murray Rothbard, Because of this and this. (First week on list) 2. The Pith of Life: Aphorisms in Honor of Liberty by Jakub Bozydar Wisniewski. Because of this. (First month on list) 3. Taking a Stand: Reflections on Life, Liberty, and the Economy by Robert Higgs. Because of this. (
  • The Economics of Bernie Sanders

    1 Sep 2015 | 9:01 pm
    By William L. Anderson As the political campaign of Hillary Clinton continues to run aground, Democrats are flocking to the campaign of Bernie Sanders, the self-described “socialist” US senator from Vermont, who has been a fixture in that state for more than three decades. Not unlike the presidential campaign of Ron Paul, Sanders is drawing large, enthusiastic crowds who are very receptive to
  • How to End a Conversation Gracefully

    1 Sep 2015 | 3:54 pm
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    Carl Futia

  • Guesstimates on September 2, 2015

    2 Sep 2015 | 6:04 am
    September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1919-49. The odds are good that last week’s 1831 low ended the drop from the May-July tops. Support in the 1892-1911 range stopped yesterday’s drop and an extended up swing is now underway.QQQ:  I think that the drop from 114 ended at last Monday’s 84 low. Upside target is now 120.TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%. Euro-US Dollar:  The market hit resistance at 1.17 and is now headed lower. Downside target is 0.96 over the coming months.Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The…
  • Guesstimates on September 1, 2015

    1 Sep 2015 | 5:55 am
    September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1912-42. The odds are good that last week’s 1831 low ended the drop from the My-July tops. Support now is in the 1892-1911 range. From there an extended up swing is likely to begin.QQQ:  I think that the drop from 114 ended at last Monday’s 84 low. Upside target is now 120.TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%. Euro-US Dollar:  The market hit resistance at 1.17 and is now headed lower. Downside target is 0.96 over the coming months.Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market…
  • Guesstimates on August 31, 2015

    31 Aug 2015 | 6:02 am
    September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1958-78. The odds are good that last week’s 1831 low ended the drop from the My-July tops. Support now is in the 1892-1911 range. From there an extended up swing is likely to begin.QQQ:  I think that the drop from 114 ended at last Monday’s 84 low. Upside target is now 120.TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%. Euro-US Dollar:  The market hit resistance at 1.17 and is now headed lower. Downside target is 0.96 over the coming months.Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market…
  • Attention Traders

    28 Aug 2015 | 10:54 am
    As you know I post the S&P E-mini trades I make in my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime  on this blog's Twitter feed (at the top of the right hand column). You can follow me here on Twitter for free but keep in mind that the trade postings are delayed 5-10 minutes. So far this year my seminar day trades have generated a return of 102% trading one contract per 10k in equity (almost 4 times the day trading margin requirement).Of course the real reason for joining your fellow traders at my seminar is to learn my trading techniques which you will find quite unusual. I focus on…
  • lots of pessimism

    28 Aug 2015 | 10:46 am
    I think the drop from the US stock market high points of 2015 ended at the low points made early on August 24, this past Monday. A lot of bearish sentiment appears to have developed and this should be fuel for an extended rally if not for a move to new bull market highs.The bottom three images show the front page of the New York times on August 22, 25 and 26. Seldom does one encounter a sequence of three bearish headline within such a short span of time. Headlines like these as well as the warnings offered by the talking heads on cable TV business shows all encourage "low information"…
 
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    True Economics

  • 2/9/15: House prices, rents and Irish demographics

    2 Sep 2015 | 1:19 am
    Based on latest data from CSO, Dublin has gained disproportionately in population compared to the rest of the country in 12 months through April 2015. At the top level, Dublin population rose 30,700 in 2015 compared to overall state population rise of 25,800, which implies that ex-Dublin, the country lost population at the rate of 4,900. Dublin v rest of the state population changes were even more dramatic when one considers age distribution.Population aged 0-19 years rose in Dublin by 15,700 in 2015. The same group numbers increased state-wide by 19,600. Which means ex-Dublin, younger…
  • 30/8/15: Migration & Changes in Irish Population: Working Age Population

    30 Aug 2015 | 12:18 pm
    In two previous posts, I looked at Irish migration and population changes data from the point of:- Top level analysis of migration and natural changes in population; and- Migration trends by nationality.Continuing with analysis of population data from CSO released earlier this week, let's take a look at the age composition of population.In what follows, I define two key categories within our population:Working age group - population aged 20 years through 64 years. This is an approximate definition, and I prefer it to including 15-20 year olds into it, primarily because it allows for more…
  • 29/8/15: Migration & Natural Changes in Irish Population: Migration by Nationality

    29 Aug 2015 | 12:14 pm
    Having looked in the previous post at top level data for population changes in Ireland reported by CSO, now let's take a look at composition of migrants flows by nationality. This is going to be charts-heavy.Let's start with immigration flows. Chart below shows Immigration into Ireland over the recent years:Several interesting aspects of this jump out:There has been a significant increase of inflows of people from the 'Rest of the World' (ex-EU). Numbers of those coming into Ireland from outside the EU are up at 30,400 in 2015 from 25,500 in 2014. Pre-2015, average annual inflows of…
  • 29/8/15: Migration & Natural Changes in Irish Population: Top Level Analysis of 2015 data

    29 Aug 2015 | 9:16 am
    Irish migration and population data for the 12 months through April 2015 have been published by CSO recently. It is a tough read. Let's take a look at overall picture (2015 here references May 2014-April 2015 period as per CSO data):There were 67,000 births in 2015, down on 67,700 in 2014 - a decline of 700. Compared to peak births year - 2010 - births are down 10,200.There were also 29,600 deaths in 2015, compared to 29,800 in 2014 which is 3,200 lower than peak year (1990), but more significantly - below 2013 and 2014 readings. Which means that natural increase in population was…
  • 28/8/15: Core Retail Sales for July: Less of a Cheer, More of a Smile

    28 Aug 2015 | 11:39 am
    With much of hullabaloo around it, the Retail Sales figures for July were published today. The CSO headline on the matter read: "Retail Sales Volume increased by 11.6% in July 2015". Which is, of course, correct... to a point. The figure references sales inclusive of automotive sales. And it references volumes of sales.So here are the actual retail sales figures, for retail sales excluding motors.First, consider seasonally-adjusted sales allowing m/m comparatives:Value of core (ex-motors) retail sales increased 0.3% m/m in July and this only partially (albeit substantially) corrects for 0.3%…
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    Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

  • Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – August 12 2015

    12 Aug 2015 | 10:28 am
    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications. The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases. The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate…
  • Construction Spending: June 2015

    3 Aug 2015 | 9:49 am
    Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released their latest read of construction spending showing weakening results for June with total private construction spending, single family construction spending and non-residential construction spending all declining over the month. On a month-to-month basis, total residential spending declined 0.5% from May but remained 13.7% above the level seen in June 2014 and remained well below the peak level seen in 2006.Single family construction spending declined 0.3% from May and rose 12.8% since June 2014 but remaining well below it's peak level reached…
  • Hong Kong Residential Property Prices: HKU-REIS March 2015

    17 Jul 2015 | 7:06 am
    The latest release of the University of Hong Kong's Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Series (HKU-REIS) indicating that, in March, the price of residential properties declined 1.06% since February but still remained 16.57% above the level seen in March 2014. The HKU-REIS is a set of property price indices constructed monthly using a “modified” repeat-sale methodology similar to that of the S&P/Case-Shiller indices yet suited to the Hong Kong property market.
  • New Residential Construction Report: June 2015

    17 Jul 2015 | 6:52 am
    Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed generally improving results with total permit activity rising 7.4% since May while total starts surged 9.8% over the same period.Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased 0.9% from May to 687K single family units (SAAR), and rose 6.0% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005.Single family housing starts declined 0.9% from May to 685K single family units (SAAR) but still remained 14.7% above the level seen a year earlier.
  • NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Sentiment: July 2015

    16 Jul 2015 | 8:00 am
    Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing that overall assessments of housing activity generally went flat in July with the composite HMI index remaining at 60 while the "buyer traffic" index declined to a level of 43 from 44 in the prior month.Overall, conditions for new home construction appear to have remained stable recently but still remain below the peak assessments see prior to the Great Recession.
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    The Economic Populist

  • Manufacturing Survey Shows Slowing in August

    Robert Oak
    2 Sep 2015 | 1:48 am
    The August ISM Manufacturing Survey shows more deceleration of the manufacturing sector.  While a PMI of 51.1% is still growth, the decline in new orders is disconcerting.  The composite PMI decreased by -1.6 percentage points and new orders decreased by -4.8 percentage points.  Overall the report really shows a weakening manufacturing sector. Share
  • Consumer Spending Increased 0.3% in July

    Robert Oak
    31 Aug 2015 | 2:20 am
    The July personal income and outlays report shows a 0.3% increase in consumer spending.  When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending rose 0.2%.  Personal income increased 0.4% while real disposable income also increased 0.4% for the month.  This is moderate growth.  Wages also seem to be finally picking up. Share
  • A Ruling Class Hissy Fit

    Dan Phillips
    30 Aug 2015 | 4:08 pm
    The reaction of the ruling elite and their minions in official conservadom to the Donald Trump surge is best characterized as a hissy fit, an extended temper tantrum that the GOP base isn’t doing what they want them to. The elite and their gatekeepers can’t seem to figure out why Trump is surging and why the peons who support him won’t listen to their betters. What is more puzzling is why they didn’t see this coming and why it hasn’t happen sooner. The writing has been on the wall for a while. Share
  • Q2 GDP Soars With 3.7% Growth

    Robert Oak
    27 Aug 2015 | 5:17 pm
    Q2 GDP has been significantly revised upward from 2.3% to 3.7%.  Investment was dramatically revised upward as was spending by state and local governments.  Consumer spending was a healthy 57.2% of real GDP.  Also surprising was a lack of upward revisions in imports.  Regardless, that is a 1.37 percentage point GDP revision, a 59% change from the advance report.  Wall Street welcomes the growth news although gambling the Fed won't raise rates in September due to global market volatility might now be loser bets. Share
  • Durable Goods Up 2.0% for July

    Robert Oak
    27 Aug 2015 | 1:55 am
    The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders shot up by 2.0% in July.  June showed a whopping 4.1% new orders increase.  Core capital goods, showed a 2.2% monthly gain.  Without transportation new orders, which includes aircraft, durable goods new orders would have increased by 0.6%.  Motor vehicles & parts new orders gained 4.0% for the month. Share
 
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    Stock Trading To Go

  • Market Recap Sep 1, 2015

    Mark Hanna
    1 Sep 2015 | 3:04 pm
    Indexes began the fourth quarter not unlike how they ended the third quarter. A lot of volatility and a big swoon. The S&P 500 plunged 2.96% and the NASDAQ 2.98%. Two sets of key Chinese data disappointed investors, leading to another major gap down at the open. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) edged down to 49.7 in August from 50 in July, while the final... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • Market Recap Aug 31, 2015

    Mark Hanna
    31 Aug 2015 | 2:05 pm
    As we exited last week we said the easy bounce that was predictable based on rarely seen oversold conditions was now in the rear view mirror and now it gets complicated. The nature of the action in the next 4-10 days will tell us a lot about the intermediate term. Today was not such a good day to that end. The S&P 500 fell 0.84% and the NASDAQ 1.07%. We had a very atypical month for... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • Market Recap Aug 28, 2015

    Mark Hanna
    28 Aug 2015 | 3:11 pm
    After all the volatility this week it was ironic to finish on a day much more typical of a lazy August. The S&P 500 gained 0.06% and the NASDAQ 0.32%. The "easy trade" (buy the massive gap down Monday on rarely seen oversold conditions, sell after a big bounce) is over and it gets difficult from here as there has been some damage done to both the indexes and many individual charts. ... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • Market Recap Aug 27, 2015

    Mark Hanna
    27 Aug 2015 | 3:03 pm
    After Tuesday's failed rally we've now had a powerful but totally unsurprising 2 day rally. Hopefully you did not panic Monday or Tuesday as we said in the next week we'd see a significant bounce and often the biggest moves up happen during corrections. Now comes the less predictable part. The S&P 500 gained 2.43% and NASDAQ 2.45% as both roared out of the gate in big gap ups, sold off... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • Market Recap Aug 26, 2015

    Mark Hanna
    26 Aug 2015 | 2:09 pm
    Wednesday began as carbon copy of Tuesday's action with a big gap up at the open and looked very similar until up to 3 PM. But instead of falling off a cliff, buyers came in and there was another surge to close out the day in the last 90 minutes. The S&P 500 gained 3.90% and the NASDAQ 4.24%. It is feeling a lot like late 2007 thru early 2009 when 300-500 DOW swings were normal. The... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
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    Political Calculations

  • The Surprise in Being Unsurprised by the S&P 500

    2 Sep 2015 | 12:36 am
    We've previously written that the only time we get really ever get excited about what's going on in the stock market is when it changes by 2% or more from the previous day's closing value. That threshold is based on our statistical study of the volatility of stock prices, where we found that the percentage change of the S&P 500 from one trading day to the next fit pretty neatly inside a normal distribution, where: 78.8% of all day-to-day percentage changes were within 1 standard deviations of the mean, about 10.6% higher than what would typically be expected for a perfect normal distribution.
  • Paying Your Bills With Dividends

    1 Sep 2015 | 1:22 am
    Are you tired of paying your your mobile phone bill every month? What if you could get your carrier to pay it for you? Believe it or not, there's a way that you could actually make that happen. All you need to do is to buy the company! Or rather, you need to buy enough shares of stock in the company to cover the cost of your monthly bills through the dividends you might earn as a partial owner of the business. But how many shares would that take? Our latest tool answers that question! We've plugged in the quarterly dividend and share price data as it might apply to an average monthly bill for…
  • Quantum Random Walks and the S&P 500

    31 Aug 2015 | 12:40 am
    From time to time, we'll conclude our more remarkable posts with the phrase "Welcome back to the cutting edge!" We're going to do that again today. The reason we'll do that today is because of a new paper that was published just 20 days ago that describes cognitive decision making as the collapse of a quantum superstate. Phys.org's Christopher Packham provides the background for the application of "Quantum Random Walks" to decision making. Decision making in an enormous range of tasks involves the accumulation of evidence in support of different hypotheses. One of the enduring models of…
  • Reinventing the Axe

    28 Aug 2015 | 1:13 am
    Three weeks ago, we featured the work of the young Australian behind the Primitive Technology blog, who built a stone adze from scratch in the wild, which he then proceeded to use to build a primitive, yet effective and durable shelter from his surrounding materials. As human invention goes, the adze is a contemporary of the axe, another tool that first saw the light of day in the stone age. Today, we're going to feature the modern reinvention of the axe, in which the millenia-old design is being revisited by Finnish inventor Heikki Kärnä to make it a more effective tool, funding for the…
  • Dividend Cuts: The Second Best Month of 2015

    27 Aug 2015 | 1:17 am
    Believe it or not, August is shaping up to be the second best month for dividends in 2015. But don't take our word for it - the proof is in our near-real time measure of the level of distress in the U.S. economy, the cumulative number of U.S. firms announcing that they are cutting their cash dividend payments to their shareholder owners by day of the quarter. The best month of 2015 was June 2015, which only saw 10 firms cut their dividends according to Seeking Alpha's Market Currents and the Wall Street Journal's daily listing of dividend declarations. At 13 (and counting since the month…
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    Calafia Beach Pundit

  • Chart updates III

    1 Sep 2015 | 1:34 pm
    Unusually high volatility and widespread nervousness continue to plague the markets, but there is still little or no evidence of any significant deterioration in the economic and financial fundamentals. On the contrary, recent releases show that the construction sector is booming and auto sales are at a 10-year high. Moreover, swap spreads—a key current and leading indicator of economic and financial market health—remain quite low, suggesting systemic risk is de minimus.The Vix index (implied equity volatility) jumped to 32 today. Even though that is substantially elevated from the…
  • Credit conscious consumers

    28 Aug 2015 | 2:12 pm
    If anything good came out of the Great Recession, it was the lesson—for consumers, at least—that debt can be a very unpleasant thing to have when the going gets rough. Consumers have taken that message to heart, by managing their credit card debt more carefully.As the chart above shows, credit card debt outstanding fell from a high of $866 billion in 2008 to $703 billion as of last June. Relative to disposable income, credit card debt fell by fully one third over the same period.Reduced credit card debt, combined with rising incomes, has dramatically reduced the percentage of credit loans…
  • GDP stronger than expected

    28 Aug 2015 | 11:36 am
    It's ironic that the stock market suffered a huge "correction" only days before the second revision to Q2 GDP growth came in surprisingly strong. Sometimes the market gets carried away by emotions, and sometimes the economic statistics get revised significantly after the fact, so it pays to keep an eye on the fundamentals as revealed by key market-based prices (e.g., real yields on TIPS, swap spreads, the dollar, gold).I've long argued that real yields on 5-yr TIPS were a good indicator of the market's expectation for the trend of real economic growth. As the chart above shows, the two tend…
  • Chart updates II

    26 Aug 2015 | 7:18 pm
    Only two charts from yesterday merit updating today, one the result of a bounce in stock prices and a drop in fear, the other the result of a further decline in 2-yr swap spreads.When stock prices move inversely to fear (as proxied in the above chart by the ratio of the Vix index to the 10-yr Treasury yield), it's a good bet that emotions are the primary driver. More and more this looks to be the case with the recent volatility in global equity markets.Swap spreads typically lead or track credit spreads, but not recently. 2-yr swap spreads in the U.S. are now a mere 14 bps, while high-yield…
  • Chart updates

    25 Aug 2015 | 4:07 pm
    Given the rather extraordinary volatility and nervousness of the market, I'm going to post updates of key charts as I'm able, with minimal commentary.The following charts show the most recent data as of today, Aug 25th:High-yield credit spreads are rising, but still relatively low compared to periods of real economic distress. Swap spreads are declining, and are at levels which typically coincide with periods of economic tranquility.The energy sector is clearly the one most impacted by current conditions (i.e, collapsing energy prices). Defaults are very likely. The market has already priced…
 
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    Supply and Demand (in that order)

  • Business Experience Is No Cure-All in Government

    7 Aug 2015 | 8:57 am
    Because government and business are fundamentally different in their financing and their evaluation, good business practices can make for poor governing.The election cycle regularly brings forth successful businesspeople who argue that voters should select them for public office over seasoned politicians because of the skills and experience they acquired in the business sector. In 1996, billionaire Ross Perot started his own political party to advance his quest for the presidency of the United States. Financier Mitt Romney was the Republican nominee in 2012. And now Carly Fiorina and Donald…
  • Update on Employment per Capita

    7 Aug 2015 | 7:59 am
    through July. Below uses the same methodology I displayed in the past. The self-employed component is volatile ... it would be nice to have some kind of error bands on this series ... but that is still work in progress.
  • Update on the employment rate

    2 Jul 2015 | 7:22 am
    through June. Below uses the same methodology I displayed in the past. The self-employed component is volatile ... it would be nice to have some kind of error bands on this series ... but that is still work in progress.
  • Is Obamatrade the same as freer trade?

    18 Jun 2015 | 3:16 am
    The legal question du jour is whether Congress should allow special voting procedures (fast track) for international trade agreement agreements negotiated by the executive branch. This brings forth the age-old debate of the merits of free trade, as if free or freer trade is at stake with fast track.But that is jumping to conclusions without reading the text of the trade agreements.Experts jumped to conclusion, based on chapter titles alone, that the ARRA would help the economy recover, when in fact it prolonged the recession.Experts jumped to the conclusion that Obamacare would create…
  • Piketty's Feast

    16 Jun 2015 | 3:36 pm
    Revealed preference speaks volumes. Admittedly, my hardcover version of Capital in the Twenty-First Century was delivered “for free” by the publisher of this periodical, but the opportunity cost of retaining it was extraordinary last spring when its publisher and distributors remarkably ran out of stock and the market for used copies was surging. I did more than retain it: I also purchased the electronic version so that I could search its contents readily and accurately and fit the 685-pager in a coat pocket.More significantly, I read it, in some places carefully enough to dig into the…
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Stan attribution

    Andrew
    1 Sep 2015 | 6:08 am
    I worry that I get too much credit for Stan. So let me clarify. I didn’t write Stan. Stan is written in C++, and I’ve never in my life written a line of C, or C+, or C++, or C+++, or C-, or any of these things. Here’s a quick description of what we’ve all done, listed in order of joining the development team. • Andrew Gelman (Columbia University) chief of staff, chief of marketing, chief of fundraising, chief of modeling, chief of training, max marginal likelihood, expectation propagation, posterior analysis, R, founder • Bob Carpenter (Columbia University)…
  • Constructing an informative prior using meta-analysis

    Andrew
    31 Aug 2015 | 9:29 am
    Chris Guure writes: I am trying to construct an informative prior by synthesizing or collecting some information from literature (meta-analysis) and then to apply that to a real data set (it is longitudinal data) for over 20 years follow-up. In constructing the prior using the meta-analysis data, the issue of publication bias came up. I have tried looking to see if there is any literature on this but it seems almost all the articles on Bayesian meta-analysis do not actually account for this issue apart from one (Givens, Smith and Tweedie 1997). My thinking was that I could assume a data…
  • Uri Simonsohn warns us not to be falsely reassured

    Andrew
    31 Aug 2015 | 6:52 am
    I agree with Uri Simonsohn that you don’t learn much by looking at the distribution of all the p-values that have appeared in some literature. Uri explains: Most p-values reported in most papers are irrelevant for the strategic behavior of interest. Covariates, manipulation checks, main effects in studies testing interactions, etc. Including them we underestimate p-hacking and we overestimate the evidential value of data. Analyzing all p-values asks a different question, a less sensible one. Instead of “Do researchers p-hack what they study?” we ask “Do researchers p-hack…
  • On deck this week

    Andrew
    31 Aug 2015 | 6:00 am
    Mon: Constructing an informative prior using meta-analysis Tues: Stan attribution Wed: Cannabis/IQ follow-up: Same old story Thurs: Defining conditional probability Fri: In defense of endless arguments Sat: Emails I never finished reading Sun: BREAKING . . . Sepp Blatter accepted $2M payoff from Dennis Hastert The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • “Another bad chart for you to criticize”

    Andrew
    30 Aug 2015 | 6:25 am
    Stuart Buck sends in this Onion-worthy delight: The post “Another bad chart for you to criticize” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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    Beyond Economics

  • The Price of Oil and Beyond

    Rob Kaulfuss
    1 Sep 2015 | 7:10 pm
    Sunset on the Age of Oil The American Dream of suburbia and the post-WWII global economy were built on cheap oil. Although the price of oil is down by over 50% from the $100 level of recent years, they are still higher than during the formative post-war period or even that of the 90s ($10-$30). Oil and gas are now in a lose/lose situation. When prices are high for a sustained period, it will spur production (supply) but put a drag on world economic growth (demand), leading to a surplus and then a price collapse. When prices are low for a sustained period, while not helpful for…
  • Still Waiting for the Growth that May Never Come

    Rob Kaulfuss
    31 Aug 2014 | 10:28 am
    The well-off are back to partying and politicians are arguing over the bar tab The U.S. and world economy almost went down the drain in 2008-09, but thanks in part to extraordinary measures by the U.S. Federal Reserve and central bankers around the world, economic collapse was avoided. Although the lights are back on, the rate of economic growth remains below the escape velocity rate needed to move forward. While corporate profits are up and the stock market is at record highs, many on the lower decks are still cleaning up the mess if they are even back on the boat. Perhaps it is time to…
  • The Not So Promised Land of Fracking

    Rob Kaulfuss
    7 Jan 2013 | 5:23 pm
    The movie Promised Land depicts the dilemma faced by rural farms and towns by the fracking boom. While the makers of the film do reveal their biases in terms of the potential environmental and economic exploitation of poor, rural America, they attempt to provide a balance of perspectives that include some surprising twists with the conclusion left up in the air. Although we don’t actually see fracking or the results of it in the film, here is what a fracked landscape looks like. The oil, gas, and financial industries would have us believe that the shale gas and oil boom will…
  • The Future of Economics and Society as We Know It

    Rob Kaulfuss
    8 Aug 2011 | 9:07 am
    Richard Heinberg delivers a clear and powerful message on the urgent need for the world to begin the transition to a sustainable future. He takes a big picture perspective on the interconnectedness of economics, energy, the environment, and society. Don’t Worry There’s Plenty of Oil (NOT) Interview on The Keiser Report 300 Years of Fossil Fuels in 300 Seconds Who Killed Economic Growth The End of Growth (Chapter summaries; excerpts below) We are, and will be, seeing a cavalcade of environmental and economic disasters, not obviously related to one another, that will stymie…
  • The Internet as a Monkey Trap

    Rob Kaulfuss
    13 Jul 2011 | 9:19 am
    Google, Blogs, Facebook, Twitter, email, text messaging, gaming, virtual worlds…what is your banana? What so captures your attention that you can’t let go? I saw a cartoon of a monkey trap (not this one) over 25 years ago in an article entitled Computers as Poison. The idea has stuck with me ever since. Today, I came across this explanation which describes the attention capture phenomenon quite well. SEEKING: How the brain hard-wires us to love Google, Twitter, and texting. And why that’s dangerous. Slate (8/12/09) You can’t stop doing it. Sometimes it feels as if the…
 
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    Businomics Blog

  • Business Economics Posts On My Forbes.com Blog

    Bill Conerly
    28 Aug 2015 | 10:35 am
    Most of my work is going onto my Forbes.com blog. Here are my recent posts that have gotten a lot of attention: What's Next For The Stock Market After A Big Drop? Manufacturing Has Come Back And More Gains To Come Four Strategies Businesses Will Use To Cope With Higher Minimum Wages Misleading Productivity Measures: We Really Are Better Off You might also check out my forthcoming book about business strategy with an uncertain future.
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    TheMoneyIllusion

  • The long run is now

    ssumner
    1 Sep 2015 | 1:02 pm
    I recently criticized the view that the Fed might want to consider raising interest rates because a long period of low rates could lead to financial imbalances, such as “reaching for yield.”  I actually have several problems with this view, but focused mostly on the implicit assumption that tighter money would lead to higher interest rates.  That’s not true over the sort of time frame that people are worried about. Tyler Cowen linked to the post and offered a few comments: Scott Sumner dissents on reach for yield.  I don’t think easier money will boost the American…
  • Skeptical of the China data skeptics

    ssumner
    31 Aug 2015 | 7:18 am
    The problem with answering comments is that one has to swat down one conspiracy theory after.  One recurring theme is that the China GDP data is fake. People breathlessly report obscure data on electricity production or rail shipments. I don’t doubt that the Chinese data is flawed, but there’s no reason to assume it’s not broadly correct.  You need to look at the big picture, and with China I mean really big. 1.  The quarter-to-quarter data is strangely smooth (although that’s partly an artifact of their use of year over year, rather than quarterly data.)  But over…
  • Pop Monetary Economics

    ssumner
    30 Aug 2015 | 6:30 am
    Paul Krugman has an excellent post demolishing the following claim by William Cohan, in the NYT: The case for raising rates is straightforward: Like any commodity, the price of borrowing money — interest rates — should be determined by supply and demand, not by manipulation by a market behemoth. Essentially, the clever Q.E. program caused a widespread mispricing of risk, deluding investors into underestimating the risk of various financial assets they were buying. BTW, Krugman’s post is the one to read (not mine) if you only look at one post on this topic.  He carefully walks…
  • Nationalist–Socialist America

    ssumner
    29 Aug 2015 | 1:03 pm
    The German tight money policy of the early 1930s led to a surge in vote support for two groups, the nationalists and the socialists.  Today in America the nationalists and the socialists have all the momentum.  Consider: 1.  Dick Cheney might have been the worst Vice President in American history (at least Agnew didn’t do anything.)  Now add to the list his choice to be one heartbeat away from the presidency—Sarah Palin.  Palin is now gushing praise over Donald Trump, who campaigns on the same mix of statism and xenophobia that you see among the neo-fascist parties in Europe,…
  • The first step is admitting you have a problem

    ssumner
    29 Aug 2015 | 7:56 am
    That is, the first step toward NGDP targeting.  Marcus Nunes has a new post that quotes a Jon Hilsenrath story in the WSJ: JACKSON HOLE, Wyo.—Central bankers aren’t sure they understand how inflation works anymore. Inflation didn’t fall as much as many expected during the financial crisis, when the economy faltered and unemployment soared. It hasn’t bounced back as they predicted when the economy recovered and unemployment fell. The conundrum challenges much of what central bankers thought they understood about the world, as well as their ability to do their job. How will they know…
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    Jesse's Café Américain

  • The Investment of the Millennium: 'Pet Rocks'

    1 Sep 2015 | 2:41 pm
    "Gold has worked down from Alexander's time. When something holds good for two thousand years I do not believe it can be so because of prejudice or mistaken theory." Bernard M. Baruch Who would have thought it? So why haven't the precious metals been 'working' since they spiked higher in 2011? "We hypothesize that, having learned from the misadventures of the 1960s, the policy elites,
  • Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Non-Farm Payrolls On Friday

    1 Sep 2015 | 1:58 pm
    "The existence of cash — a bearer instrument with a zero interest rate — limits central banks’ ability to 'stimulate a depressed economy.'  The worry is that people will change their deposits for cash if a central bank moves rates into negative territory." Financial Times, The Case For Retiring Another 'Barbarous Relic' Since the Nikkei bought the Financial Times earlier this year one
  • SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Danger Zone

    1 Sep 2015 | 1:28 pm
    "Gentlemen! I too have been a close observer of the doings of the Bank of the United States. I have had men watching you for a long time, and am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the
  • Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Charts Undecided - Goldman Takes A Little More

    31 Aug 2015 | 2:10 pm
    "Don't get involved in partial problems, but always take flight to where there is a free view over the whole single great problem, even if this view is still not a clear one." Ludwig Wittgenstein, Notebooks, Nov 1914 We say goodbye to August, and the active month for gold at The Bucket Shop, and welcome the first stirrings of September, which promises to be much more interesting for silver
  • SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - September Song

    31 Aug 2015 | 1:19 pm
    "The ideological and physical hold of American imperial power, buttressed by the utopian ideology of neoliberalism and global capitalism, is unraveling. Most, including many of those at the heart of the American empire, recognize that every promise made by the proponents of neoliberalism is a lie. Global wealth, rather than being spread equitably, as neoliberal proponents promised, has been
 
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    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • Nothing to fear but...

    chris
    25 Aug 2015 | 5:17 am
    Yesterday's big stock market falls pose the question: do we really have anything to worry about? It's tempting to answer: no. The claim that stock markets have predicted nine of the last five recessions is a cliche because it is true - although why (pdf) this is is a matter of doubt. And we know from the very mild repercussions of the tech crash of the early 00s that exogenous falls in share prices don't have catastrophically negative wealth effects. Nevertheless, I suspect there are four concerns here. First, the fact that the Chinese economy is slowing down (pdf) is a symptom…
  • Techno-optimism & low investment

    chris
    22 Aug 2015 | 2:04 am
    Gillian Tett points out that, despite talk of a technology boom, corporate investment is weak. This isn't as paradoxical as it seems. In fact, techno-optimism might be one reason for low investment. I say so for a simple reason: future technical progress could well render today's investments unprofitable. If you spend £10m installing robots in a factory today you might be able to undercut your non-robotized rivals. But if a new company later installs better robots for £5m, it will undercut you and destroy your profits. As Marx wrote: In addition to the material wear and tear, a…
  • On wishful thinking

    chris
    20 Aug 2015 | 6:07 am
    David Aaronovitch in the Times has a nice piece on how people fall for conspiracy theorists and conmen: What a fraudster, a fantasist or a hoaxer needs to be able to survive, is to fall among people who are anxious to believe. This urge to believe is not confined to extreme cases. It's much more common than that. A while ago, Guy Mayraz did a neat experiment at Oxford. He asked subjects to use charts of the price of wheat to predict future price moves. Before doing so, he randomly divided them into two groups: "farmers" who would profit from a rising price, and…
  • Ballroom dancing, & Sapir-Whorf

    chris
    19 Aug 2015 | 6:25 am
    Last night I went to a ballroom dance lesson, which set me thinking about the Sapir-Whorf hypothesis. When you are a rank beginner, the natural thing to do is to speak as you are moving: "left-forward-back" and so on. But this of course confuses your partner, who must do the opposite. You can use objective locators - "to the bar", "to the window" - but whilst these work OK for the rumba, they cause a car-crash in the waltz. What we need, I thought, are observer-neutral spatial terms - something that means "my left/your right." Although such terms are…
  • Corbynomics - meh

    chris
    18 Aug 2015 | 6:07 am
    There are two common objections to Corbynomics (pdf) which seem to be to be misplaced. The first is that it is out-of-date. "A howl for the past" says John van Reenen. "Old solutions to old problems" says Yvette Cooper. I'm not so sure. People's QE is a response to a problem which is perhaps more severe now than in the past - that the UK invests too little. The share of business investment in GDP has been trending downwards for years: complaints about BT's tardiness in rolling out fast broadband are symptomatic of a wider problem. And if fears of secular…
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    David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

  • The world struggles when the trade winds don't blow

    David Smith
    30 Aug 2015 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It has been a nasty scare, and it is not yet over. Though I think they are overstated, the doubts about China will persist. Though the...
  • QE or not QE? A slippery slope to breaking the Bank

    David Smith
    23 Aug 2015 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It is more than six years since the Bank of England launched quantitative easing (QE) and more than three years since it last actively did any....
  • Productivity lift-off will keep pushing up pay

    David Smith
    16 Aug 2015 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. I did wonder if this was the week when, in the light of Corbynmania, and what appears to be the Labour party’s longest suicide vote in...
  • Another milestone on the road to normality

    David Smith
    2 Aug 2015 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. An economic recovery is all about barriers and milestones. It is a story of getting over the barriers and counting off the milestones as you pass...
  • Cuts: the big bad wolf's howl is worse than his bite

    David Smith
    26 Jul 2015 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Sometimes I think that when George Osborne looks in the mirror each morning, he thinks: “Now how can I put the wind up the Labour party...
 
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    Project Syndicate RSS-Feed

  • Using Antibiotics Wisely

    Jim O'Neill
    2 Sep 2015 | 7:20 am
    Developing new drugs is an important approach in a coordinated response to fight antimicrobial resistance, but it will not be enough. The world also needs to reduce demand for antibiotics and understand that they can sometimes do more harm than good.
  • Puerto Rico in Crisis

    Anne Krueger
    2 Sep 2015 | 6:20 am
    Unlike Greece, Puerto Rico is not a country, which means that it is ineligible for multilateral financing; but nor is it a US state. This arrangement, though advantageous in some respects, also implies serious obstacles to the restoration of growth that the island so desperately needs.
  • Vladimir Putin’s Soviet Dream

    Shlomo Ben-Ami
    2 Sep 2015 | 5:30 am
    From China’s activities in the South China Sea to the Islamic State’s advance in the Middle East, competition and conflict are threatening long-standing regional orders. But perhaps the most critical conflict, with implications for all the rest, is in Ukraine, which has become central to Russia's expansionist ambitions.
  • Getting Bank Culture Right

    Jean-Claude Trichet
    2 Sep 2015 | 3:20 am
    Banks and banking rely on trust. But while trust takes years to establish, it can be squandered abruptly if a bank’s ethics are weak, its values poor, and its behavior simply wrong.
  • Who Will Suffer Most from Climate Change?

    Bill Gates
    1 Sep 2015 | 10:00 am
    For the world’s poorest farmers, life is a high-wire act: Just one stroke of bad fortune – a drought, a flood, or an illness – is enough for them to tumble deeper into poverty and hunger. And now climate change is set to add a fresh layer of risk to their lives, highlighting the need for effective adaptation measures.
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    Benzinga Feeds

  • UBS Sees Mixed U.S. Economic Data Ahead Of FOMC Decision

    Wayne Duggan
    2 Sep 2015 | 8:11 am
    In a new report, UBS economist Maury Harris discusses the outlook for U.S. economic growth. After a bumpy year so far in China and a volatile August for global stock prices, Harris sees mixed signals from the U.S. economy heading into what could be the beginning of a new Federal Reserve tightening cycle.
  • Citi's Economist Reacts To Canada's Q2 GDP

    Jayson Derrick
    2 Sep 2015 | 7:46 am
    Canada's economy experienced two quarters of negative GDP growth this year, technically placing the economy in a recession. The economy contracted by one half percent in the second quarter, while the first quarter was revised down to 0.8 percent annualized from a previous negative 0.6 percent.
  • Chinese Factory Data Flip The Switch On More Deep Stock Selling

    The Ticker Tape
    1 Sep 2015 | 8:12 am
    Strap in. This retreat is no small affair as long as China's economic problems and interest rate uncertainty smother financial markets. The downbeat backdrop cloaks the start of the typically underperforming month of September. And it leaves investors wondering if punishment for the bulls simply came early this year, or if more is in store? Today's Driver?
  • Independent Equity Researchers Expect Higher Payouts In 2015

    Javier Hasse
    31 Aug 2015 | 1:23 pm
  • United States Just Had Its Biggest Weekly Drop In Gas Prices Of 2015

    Wayne Duggan
    31 Aug 2015 | 11:40 am
    While energy and commodity investors have been agonizing over the global oil supply glut and fears of weak demand from China, there is one segment of the population that has been cheering the decline in oil prices every cent of the way: drivers.
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    OilPrice.com Daily News Update

  • Why Did Oil Prices Just Jump By 27 Percent In 3 Days?

    Nick Cunningham
    1 Sep 2015 | 3:01 pm
    Oil prices have posted their strongest rally in years, jumping an astounding 27 percent in the last three trading days of August. While much of the recent price movement defies reason and is enormously magnified by speculative movements by traders to take and cover their bets on oil, still, there were a series of rumors, events, and fresh data that helped contribute to the spike. For example, on August 31, the oil markets woke up to the news that Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet his counterpart from Venezuela to discuss “possible…
  • Egypt Gas Discovery More Bad News For Russia

    Colin Chilcoat
    1 Sep 2015 | 2:50 pm
    While Russia’s shifting global tendencies have been dubbed a pivot eastward, economic and political realities have shown the pivot to be far from discriminatory. Russia cares little if Germany or China, or neither meets its demand needs – just, that they are met. Toward that end, Russia has also been eyeing North Africa, more specifically, Egypt. With its rapidly growing oil and natural gas consumption and stumbling domestic production, the country was supposed to be a promising, long-term market. It still is, but for different reasons…
  • Why Now Is The Time For Investors To Pick Up Positions In NatGas

    Michael McDonald
    1 Sep 2015 | 2:35 pm
    As the price of natural gas continues to hover around its lows for the year, it looks like the economic principles of supply and demand are starting to take effect in the market. The U.S. EIA recently found that production from seven major shale basins in the U.S. should start to drop quickly after reaching an all-time production high in May. The seven basins produced a total of 45.6 billion cubic feet per day of gas in May, but that figure should drop 1.5 percent by September. Of the seven basins, only Utica will post an increase in production.…
  • Are “Palm Trees” The Next Step In Solar Energy’s Evolution?

    Gaurav Agnihotri
    1 Sep 2015 | 2:29 pm
    Solar energy quickly gaining attention as the most attractive form of new electricity generation as there have been some substantial investments in the solar energy sector of late. In fact, more than 50 percent of the total investments in new electricity generation around the world was made in renewable energy. A report made by PWC and the University of Cambridge for the national bank of Abu Dhabi stated that the world invested around $150 billion into solar energy in 2014. “As Government and utilities are driven to bring new generation capacity…
  • Minor Bullish Signals Do Not Back Up Long Term Oil Price Rally

    Euan Mearns
    1 Sep 2015 | 2:12 pm
    The main action this month has been on the oil price that continued to slide. Both WTI and Brent set new post-crisis lows but saw sharp reversals on 27th and 28th August last week. This is a story still unfolding that is discussed in greater detail in the caption to Figure 1 (below). Global oil production data remains in its up trend although there are signs from the regions that this may be slowing and reversing. Monthly data revisions continue to obscure the real picture. 1. World total liquids production down 580,000 bpd to 96.57 Mbpd.2. OPEC…
 
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    Economy Watch

  • India's Slower Q1 Growth Rate in Context

    EW News Desk Team
    2 Sep 2015 | 6:07 am
    Indian growth stood at 7.0 percent year-on-year in the first financial quarter of 2016, a drawback from the 7.5-percent growth seen from the previous cycle, notes AFP. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's rightist cabinet is responsible for numerous reforms, but outside pressure grows for his administration to do more. Modi aims to take India into double-digit growth territory, and officials expect an 8.1-percent surplus for the year, but experts believe such an assessment may be overly optimistic. Indian growth stood at 7.0 percent year-on-year in the first financial quarter of 2016, a…
  • Perhaps Japan's Abe Should Fire Off Another Arrow?

    East Asia Forum
    2 Sep 2015 | 5:55 am
    solar_panels.jpg Home Page News Page On 11 August, the Japanese government went along with its plan to revive nuclear energy after the Fukushima disaster by restarting one of the Sendai nuclear power plants. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe insists that Japan cannot thrive without nuclear energy because oil and gas imports put a costly burden on the Japanese economy. <p>On 11 August, the Japanese government went along with its plan to revive nuclear energy after the Fukushima disaster by restarting one of the Sendai nuclear power plants. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe insists that Japan cannot…
  • World Bank to Provide $500 Million (USD) Loan to Ukraine to Support Economic Reforms

    EW News Desk Team
    2 Sep 2015 | 5:41 am
    The Ukraine has been embattled in both a military sense and economically for the past year. On August 25, 2015, the World Bank's Board of Executive Directors approved a $500 million (USD) loan designed to finance a multi-sector reform and development policy enacted by the Ukraine. The reforms and financing should support a number of important reforms designed to improve the public sector as well as the business environment, energy sector, and social assistance programs. The Ukraine has been embattled in both a military sense and economically for the past year. On August 25, 2015, the…
  • September Stabilization Set Aside for Now

    Marc Chandler
    2 Sep 2015 | 5:29 am
    roller_coaster.jpg Home Page News Page The capital markets are quieter today.  Equities remain heavy, but losses are comparatively mild.  Core bond yields are slightly softer.  The US dollar is firmer against the major and most emerging market currencies.  <p>The capital markets are quieter today.&nbsp; Equities remain heavy, but losses are comparatively mild.&nbsp; Core bond yields are slightly softer.&nbsp; The US dollar is firmer against the major and most emerging market currencies.</p> The capital markets are quieter today.  Equities…
  • Are the Saudis Killing OPEC?

    OilPrice.com
    1 Sep 2015 | 11:21 am
    opec.jpg Home Page News Page "If you are the world's leading energy economy, you produce energy, that's what you do." <p><em>&quot;If you are the world&#39;s leading energy economy, you produce energy, that&#39;s what you do.&quot;</em>&nbsp;<br /> <em>&quot;A government can stay irrational longer than it can stay solvent.&quot;</em>&nbsp;<br /> <em>&quot;Even in the short term, you&#39;re dead, if you commit suicide.&quot;</em>&nbsp;<br /> The first quote modifies…
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    Central Bank News

  • Australia holds rate, fresh data to determine next move

    centralbanknews.info
    31 Aug 2015 | 10:03 pm
        Australia's central bank left its benchmark cash rate steady at 2.00 percent, as widely expected, repeating its recent guidance that fresh economic data will guide its outlook and determine whether the current policy stance "will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target."    The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which has cut its rate by a total of 50 basis points this year, also repeated its comment from its previous board meeting that the "Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices,"…
  • Sri Lanka holds rate, remittances, tourism to support C/A

    centralbanknews.info
    31 Aug 2015 | 8:14 am
        Sri Lanka's central bank left its key interest rates steady, saying regular inflow of remittances and earnings from tourism continue to support the current account despite a widening of the trade deficit in the first half of the year due to higher spending on imports relative to export earnings.    The Central Bank of Sri Lanka, which has maintained its rates since cutting them by 50 basis points in April, added that gross official reserves dropped to US$6.8 billion by end-July from $7.5 billion end-June but reserves should rise during the rest of the year due to…
  • This week in monetary policy: Sri Lanka, Bulgaria, Australia, Poland, Brazil, Albania, ECB and Sweden

    centralbanknews.info
    31 Aug 2015 | 1:00 am
        This week (August 31 through September 5) central banks from eight countries or jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Sri Lanka, Bulgaria, Australia, Poland, Brazil, Albania, the euro area and Sweden.    Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy decision, the current policy rate, the result of the last policy decision, the change in the policy rate year to date, the rate one year ago, and the country’s MSCI classification.     The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced…
  • Central Bank News Link List - Aug 30, 2015: Fed, ECB, BOE officials all say they see inflation rising

    centralbanknews.info
    30 Aug 2015 | 10:51 am
    Here's today's Central Bank News' link list click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.Fed, ECB, BOE officials all say they see inflation rising (Bloomberg)Jackson Hole roundup: No  clear path for Fed in September (MarketWatch)El-Erian says jobs report could be key to Fed’s timing (Bloomberg)Turkish central bank hikes reserve ratio for short-term FX borrowing (Reuters)Australia…
  • Angola raises rate 25 bps on rising inflation and credit

    centralbanknews.info
    28 Aug 2015 | 11:35 am
        Angola's central bank raised its benchmark Basic Interest Rate (BNA) by another 25 basis points to 10.50 percent, its fourth rate hike this year, citing rising inflation, growing credit and a depreciation of the kwanza.    The National Bank of Angola (BNA), which has now raised its key rate by 150 basis points this year, also raised the rate on its standing lending facility lending to 12.0 percent from 11.0 percent while it maintained the rate on its liquidity absorption facility at zero percent.    Angola's inflation rate jumped to 10.41 percent in July from…
 
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    Business Insider

  • MARKETS: FTSE recovers

    Ben Moshinsky
    2 Sep 2015 | 8:37 am
    European markets were buoyed on Wednesday by a last-minute recovery in the Chinese stock markets. It was a quiet day compared to the volatile swings seen in the last few weeks.  The FTSE jumped up 0.41% to 6083.31. It was a rare positive trading session in a rollercoaster few weeks for the UK's stock index. The FTSE is recovering from its Black Monday plunge, but only slowly. Here's how the month looks. Elsewhere in Europe, things were also looking up. Germany's Dax share index was up around half a percent. And the Euro Stoxx 50, an index of Europe's biggest…
  • An elite New York college has agreed to stop charging tuition as soon as it's 'practical'

    Abby Jackson
    2 Sep 2015 | 8:37 am
    New York City's Cooper Union has agreed to return to a tuition-free model "as soon as practical," as part of an agreement to settle litigation against the elite college. The Board of Trustees of Cooper Union entered into the consent agreement with the Committee to Save Cooper Union (CSCU) and the New York State Attorney General on Wednesday. The agreement ended a lawsuit between CSCU and the Board, as well as the investigation by the attorney general into the school, and put into place stipulations for the college going forward.  Cooper Union landed itself in hot water…
  • Study finds Asians are more likely to pay more money for Princeton Review SAT prep courses

    Peter Jacobs
    2 Sep 2015 | 8:31 am
    Asian families living in the US are almost twice as likely to be charged higher prices by college test prep service The Princeton Review, according to a new study from ProPublica. The Princeton Review determines pricing based on a potential customer's ZIP code. As ProPublica notes, there is a nearly $2,000 difference in the highest and lowest prices for the Princeton Review "Premiere" SAT prep course. "When it came to getting the highest prices, living in a ZIP code with a high median income or a large Asian population seemed to make the greatest difference," according to ProPublica reporters…
  • Ukraine ceasefire undermined, EU extends sanctions

    Dmytro Gorshkov
    2 Sep 2015 | 8:30 am
    Kiev (AFP) - Two civilians were killed Wednesday in eastern Ukraine, undermining fresh efforts to end continuing violence as the European Union extended sanctions against individuals deemed responsible for the conflict.A Western-brokered ceasefire agreed in February has been punctuated by frequent deadly incidents.In a fresh bid to restore peace, Ukrainian government and separatist representatives last week agreed to seek to end ceasefire violations from Tuesday as children began school term.But after several days of a relative lull in the war-ravaged industrial east, a group of civilians and…
  • This mash-up of Kanye's VMA speech played over the 'Seinfeld' bassline is incredible

    Caroline Moss
    2 Sep 2015 | 8:29 am
    The internet continues to give, and give, and give. This morning, people on Twitter were sharing an incredible mashup of Kanye's 8-minute long VMA speech with the "Seinfeld" theme (you know, that bassline that always gets stuck in your head) and a laugh track. Here's the video: seinye 🙏 @davidelmaleh pic.twitter.com/EWbQP3UHzL— Seinfeld Current Day (@Seinfeld2000) September 1, 2015 "Funny or Die" writer David Elmaleh was the first person who took a swing — adding the laugh track to the Kanye speech and cutting it to create the ultimate stand up set. "I still don't understand awards…
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    Business + Economy – Articles – The Conversation

  • FactCheck: Has the government introduced 17 new taxes?

    Helen Hodgson, Associate Professor, Curtin Law School. Curtin Business School at Curtin University
    1 Sep 2015 | 8:19 pm
    Not all the measures listed fit the definition of a tax. AAP Image/Mick TsikasWe have got 17 new or increased taxes. – Deputy Opposition Leader and Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs, Tanya Plibersek, interview with David Koch on Sunrise, August 31, 2015. Members of the Opposition have said on several occasions that the government has imposed 17 new taxes. When asked to name the taxes, a spokesman for Ms Plibersek sent the following list: There is no question that people will face increased costs in doing business with the government as a result of these measures. Six tax concessions have…
  • Our super system isn't perfect - but for a failure, look to the US

    Paul Secunda, Senior Fulbright Scholar in Law (Labour and Super) at University of Melbourne
    1 Sep 2015 | 7:32 pm
    The compulsory super scheme in Australia is clearly superior to the voluntary 401(k) scheme utilised by the United States. Image sourced from www.shutterstock.comDebate swirls around the strengths and weaknesses of Australia’s superannuation system. But there is one aspect where change should not be countenanced: its compulsory nature. As an American Fulbright scholar studying workplace retirement schemes, I am undertaking a comparative analysis of super with the American 401(k) workplace retirement system. There are many subtleties and nuances to be discussed concerning which occupational…
  • Inequality: what can be done? Quite a bit, it turns out

    Genevieve Knight, Senior Research Fellow, National Institute of Labour Studies at Flinders University
    1 Sep 2015 | 1:12 pm
    An action plan to target inequality - who's in? Andrew Burton/ReutersWhen French academic and economist Thomas Piketty wrote a 700-page book about social inequality few would have expected it to become a bestseller. Puzzled reviewers attempted to pin what merited the huge popularity it received. The popular Occupy movement? Moral support for improving human welfare? A gifted writer amongst academics? Now, another inequality book, also with a red and black cover, has arrived in bookstores. At a much-shorter 384 pages, it’s written by economist Anthony Atkinson, who has been working on…
  • Ahead of ASEAN Economic Community, Indonesia should consider economic zones at her borders

    Muhammad Faiz Aziz, Researcher at Indonesian Center for Law and Policy Studies (PSHK)
    1 Sep 2015 | 12:08 am
    Indonesia has yet to join other South-East Asian countries in creating economic hubs in border areas. EPA/Agus SupartoAs South-East Asian countries gear up for their ASEAN Economic Community, coming into effect by the end of this year, Indonesia should look into setting up special economic zones together with bordering countries. These special zones are in line with the ASEAN Economic Community’s blueprint to support local businesses and allow people and goods to move freely between states. Having countries jointly set up economic hubs in border areas can minimise territorial disputes,…
  • Superstar CEOs no substitute for diverse leaders

    John Rice, Professor of Management at University of New England
    31 Aug 2015 | 7:56 pm
    Australia Post chief Ahmed Fahour is managing in difficult times. Tracey Nearmy/AAPThis year’s Australian reporting season has seen the return of some triumphant and amply remunerated CEOs. Though not the highest paid in Australia, Qantas chief Alan Joyce reportedly received A$11.8 million for helping the airline turnaround its financial results. Joyce did so by cutting costs and routes, restructuring the international operations and freezing pay – and together these actions have led to significant financial improvements. However two things that Joyce had nothing to do with – cheaper…
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    SurvivalBlog.com

  • Notes for Wednesday – September 02, 2015

    Hugh James Latimer
    1 Sep 2015 | 11:10 pm
    Today, we present another entry for Round 60 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The $10,000 worth of prizes for this round include: First Prize: A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,195 value), A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 Nato QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chromlined…
  • Base Layers and the Differences- Part 1, by A.S.

    Hugh James Latimer
    1 Sep 2015 | 11:10 pm
    Today there is a great deal of knowledge on the Internet and outdoor magazines about “layering”, so most people who are daily or frequent readers of SurvivalBlog would have a good understanding of using different layers to keep the human body neither too cold nor too hot. Either one will have life threatening consequences if not managed correctly away from urban areas. For the purpose of this article my intention is to explain, in layman’s terms, some of the finer points of using different base layer fibers and their properties, as well bring to attention a new space age fiber, namely…
  • Letter Re: A Year’s Supply of Food on a Budget by J. H.

    Hugh James Latimer
    1 Sep 2015 | 11:09 pm
    Dear Sirs, Regarding a recent letter mentioning the use of rapeseed as a cooking oil, care must be taken in finding the right cultivars as natural rapeseed is not suitable for food uses. Wikipedia describes this in depth. In a long-term survival situation over many grow seasons, I’m not sure I would trust the use of rapeseed to remain safe for consumption of the oil. -Mike
  • Economics and Investing:

    Hugh James Latimer
    1 Sep 2015 | 11:09 pm
    China fooled the world, and now comes the Great Unwinding – G.G. (May require an account to read the article.) o o o From 9/1, France bans cash payments over 1000 euros (previous limit was 3000) – G.G. (Google translated version) o o o The rise and fall of the American homeowner: Current homeownership rate is back to where it was 50 years ago. o o o Items from Mr. Econocobas: Central Banks Can’t Save the Markets From a Crash. They Shouldn’t Even Try – The first section of this is pretty good, but after that it starts venturing off topic. Video: Greg Hunter Interview with Jim…
  • Reader’s Recommendations of the Week:

    Hugh James Latimer
    1 Sep 2015 | 11:08 pm
    Movies April 9th In Danish subtitled with English, covering the German Invasion of WW2. One note is that just because strategic surprise has been achieved doesn’t mean you can’t work to get the tactical advantage back. Admiral In Dutch subtitled with English. Absolutely stunning visuals. Covers Dutch republic in its war against Germany, France, England. Books I also read had the chance to read the Knights Templar trilogy by Jack Wythe. I suggest all three–Kights of the Black and White, Standard of Honor, and Order in Chaos. While reading I discovered where Friday the 13th…
 
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    Trading Heroes

  • The 7 Trading Training Steps of Professional Forex Traders

    Hugh Kimura
    1 Sep 2015 | 8:18 am
    I have noticed a pattern over the years. Most successful traders follow certain rules, while struggling traders do not. The post The 7 Trading Training Steps of Professional Forex Traders appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • TTL022 – Andrew Mitchem’s Odd Journey to Becoming a Successful Forex Trader

    Hugh Kimura
    25 Aug 2015 | 8:18 am
    If you knew Andrew Mitchem before he became a successful Forex trader, you would have never guessed that he would become one. This is because he had one of the most unlikely previous professions. All this and why traders have the best vacations...on this episode of The Trading Lifestyle Podcast. The post TTL022 – Andrew Mitchem’s Odd Journey to Becoming a Successful Forex Trader appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • How to Choose the Best Forex EA, Trade Copier or Managed Account

    Hugh Kimura
    12 Aug 2015 | 1:28 am
    EAs, trade copiers and money managers can be a great addition to your investment portfolio...but only if you know what you are doing. In this post, I share my experiences with these services and give you a few tips on how to choose the right one for you. The post How to Choose the Best Forex EA, Trade Copier or Managed Account appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • How to Avoid Major U.S. Stock Market Corrections

    Guest Blogger
    28 Jul 2015 | 10:25 am
    The U.S. stock market can have a huge influence on currencies, so it is vital to pay attention to the health of indices like the S&P500. This guest post will show you why stocks are due for a correction and the historical research behind it. The post How to Avoid Major U.S. Stock Market Corrections appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • Forex Gaps – Trading the Long Lost Trading Gap

    Hugh Kimura
    24 Jul 2015 | 2:24 am
    If you have always thought that gaps on the chart were too unpredictable to trade, this post might convince you otherwise. I will show you two types of chart gaps and ways that you can potentially trade them. The post Forex Gaps – Trading the Long Lost Trading Gap appeared first on Trading Heroes.
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    OpenMarkets

  • Market Update: Anticipating the Week Ahead

    OpenMarkets
    31 Aug 2015 | 1:37 pm
      Last week saw more price action than normal for the late summer months, and Jack expects further waves of volatility to carry over into this week as well. It’s also a big week for data with the release of unemployment on Friday, a number that holds significant weight for a possible Fed rate rise in September.
  • Weekly Outlook: Labor Market and the Fed

    OpenMarkets
    31 Aug 2015 | 5:00 am
      Recent happenings abroad and in stock markets have created even greater uncertainty about when the Fed may raise rates. As we near the September meeting, the FOMC will be watching employment numbers closely. With the release of various labor market indicators, including employment situation data and Gallup’s job creation index, the week ahead will be critical in anticipating a rate hike decision.   Economic Calendar Monday: Chicago PMI 9:45 AM ET Dallas Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 AM ET   Tuesday: Motor Vehicle Sales 8:00 AM ET PMI Manufacturing Index 9:45 AM ET Construction…
  • Market Update: Why so much volatility?

    OpenMarkets
    28 Aug 2015 | 2:53 pm
      While the late summer months are historically quiet, this past week saw high levels of volatility. Jack discusses how the repatriation of sovereign wealth funds in China and oil producing countries likely played a role in the action.
  • Colin Powell Talks Domestic Politics and Global Leadership

    Mackenzie Rech
    28 Aug 2015 | 8:56 am
      These videos are part of a series of interviews we conducted with former Secretary of State Colin Powell regarding America’s role in a highly connected and rapidly changing global society. In the most recent installment, Powell discusses our nation’s strengths and weaknesses on economic and political fronts. Powell characterizes the U.S. economy as the “economy of the world” – one that is inherently influential, yet also imperfect. We must value our economic power while simultaneously recognizing the potential for growth and owning the responsibility we have across borders,…
  • What is an Internet of Value?

    OpenMarkets
    26 Aug 2015 | 2:29 pm
    Just as information moves instantaneously between individuals and across networks, could the same be done with money? Ripple Labs aims to create an “internet of value” – a world where money is exchanged at the speed in which information moves today. Transactions would occur in real-time and across global networks, solving the problem of international payment systems that are not interoperable. Ripple Labs is working to make this idea a reality by offering a distributed ledger service that tracks payments without the use of a central authority. The start-up’s platform is fundamentally…
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    azizonomics

  • Correction or Crisis?

    Aziz
    24 Aug 2015 | 6:26 am
    After almost seven years of relative calm and stability, a stock market crash is finally upon us. This is a very predictable crash stemming from a very widely known cause. Hundreds of analysts including myself — following the trail illuminated by Michael Pettis — have for a long time been banging on about a Chinese slowdown gathering an uncontrollable momentum, sending China into a panic, and infecting global markets. What’s less clear yet is whether this is a correction or a crisis. My view is toward the latter, simply because confidence is fragile.  Once the animal spirits of the…
  • Is Jeremy Corbyn The Answer?

    Aziz
    20 Aug 2015 | 2:28 am
    Labour’s defeat in the 2015 election may have been as much of a function of demographics as anything much else. As I wrote earlier this week: “Britain is greying, and older people tend to be more conservative.” If that’s the case, then the deck will be stacked against Labour in 2020, and even more so after constituency boundary changes that will help the Tories and hurt Labour. Still, the question that Labour members and supporters should be asking themselves is: which one of the candidates can beat the Tories in 2020? As a political movement, only in power can you…
  • On the Dehumanization of Immigrants

    Aziz
    30 Jul 2015 | 10:34 am
    Britain is in the grip of a worrying trend. Our own Prime Minister compared migrants in Calais to insects when he called them a “swarm”. Meanwhile, internet comment sections relating to the refugees are filled with hatred and venom. Asylum seekers are referred to as “invaders”, and the trolls encourage the British authorities to shoot them, to machine gun them, and hang them on meat hooks. This dehumanization of immigrants frightens me. Not simply because dehumanization of large groups of people often foreshadows violence. It frightens me because this is just the tip…
  • Don’t Mention The War

    Aziz
    12 Jul 2015 | 3:14 pm
    It is wrong to suggest that people should be held accountable for the actions of their ancestors. Blaming each other for the deeds of our ancestors is the cause of vast tracts of human suffering and conflict. Tribes and nations have fought each others for centuries — and, in some places, continue to do so — based on the actions of that tribe or nation’s forefathers. This is irrational. We cannot change the actions of our ancestors. That is perhaps one reason why John Cleese’s portrayal of an idiot hotelier beating down his German guests with a spiel of cringe-inducing World…
  • Deflation is Here — And The Government is Poised to Make it Worse

    Aziz
    20 May 2015 | 2:39 am
    Consumer prices may not be deflating as quickly as Labour’s electoral chances did earlier this month, but — even after £300 billion of quantitative easing — price deflation for the first time in more than half a century is finally here. The Bank of England continues to throw everything at keeping prices rising at close to their 2 percent target. Yet it’s not working. And this is not just about cheaper oil. Core inflation has also been dropping like a rock. I argued that “deflation was looming” for Britain last year, and feel a little vindicated that it has come…
 
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    eWallstreeter

  • Uninspiring

    2 Sep 2015 | 8:23 am
    EARLIER this year, a genuine revival in the euro area appeared to be under way. European equity markets were buoyant and consumers had become more confident. The recovery, which had been faltering and feeble since the spring of 2013, looked set to accelerate. That bout of optimism has proved fleeting and there is now increasing doubt about whether the euro area can pull itself out of a rut of low inflation and sluggish growth. The European Central Bank (ECB) is not expected to act on September 3
  • Fed missed rate-hike opportunity: Bill Gross

    2 Sep 2015 | 7:45 am
    Bill Gross said the Fed may have missed its window of opportunity to hike rates and normalizing now could create "self-inflicted instability."
  • 'I see a labor market that is looking hotter and hotter' (DIA, SPX, SPY, QQQ, TLT, IWM)

    2 Sep 2015 | 7:42 am
    Deutsche Bank's Torsten Sløk thinks the labor market is more than strong enough to justify interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve In an email on Wednesday, Sløk writes that he continues to talk to clients who don't believe the US economy is anything other than weak, "not good," or on the verge of recession. But the indicators Sløk is looking at show nothing of the sort. In fact, the opposite. Last week, we highlighted charts from Sløk that showed, to him, an e
  • Location Matters: Effective Tax Rates on Call Centers by State

    2 Sep 2015 | 7:30 am
    New Jersey’s effective tax rate on mature call centers is 35.4 percent, the highest in the nation. New Jersey’s effective tax rate on new call centers is -53.5 percent (yes, negative), far and away the lowest in the nation. And therein lies the story of just how significant (and distortive) tax incentives can be, and how radically tax burdens can differ across both firm types and firm maturity. We look at call centers in Location Matters (a study which calculates the tax bills of seven model
  • What’s important and/or interesting in health care?

    2 Sep 2015 | 7:27 am
    Every so often someone asks me one of the questions I hate: “What is the most important and under-discussed health policy issue right now?” or some variant thereof. I hate it because of how I’m wired, not because it’s a bad question. The truth is, just about every health policy issue of import right now is […]
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    The Last Embassy

  • ACA/Obamacare: Nevada Health Co-Op Closes, Third of Twenty Three Co-Ops to Close

    W.E. Heasley
    1 Sep 2015 | 4:52 am
    ‘A Nevada health insurance provider that received more than $65 million in taxpayer-funded loans from the federal government announced last week that it is discontinuing operations at the end of the year. The Nevada Health Co-Op will close its doors beginning Jan. 1 because of “challenging market conditions.” The co-op will be the third of the 23 consumer-oriented and operated plans created
  • ACA/Obamacare: Keep your Doctor? Not So Much. Narrow Network is the Order of the Day

    W.E. Heasley
    27 Aug 2015 | 10:59 am
    “If you bought Obamacare in Georgia or Florida you most likely don't have a lot of options for choosing doctors or hospitals, according to a new study showing that some enrollees may have less choice than others. A report released Monday found that those two states had the highest amount of Obamacare plans in narrow networks, which limit the number of physicians who are covered. The report
  • ACA/Obamacare: And About the Supposed Reduction in Health-care Price.....

    W.E. Heasley
    25 Aug 2015 | 5:41 am
    “Just in time for the next presidential election, health care spending is starting to take off again. Through 2024, health care spending is projected to grow by 5.8% annually, on average, according to CMS. While this isn’t unexpected—health economists across the political spectrum expected health care costs to start growing again (and growth rates are expected to still be lower than the
  • ACA/Obamacare: Qualifying the Non-qualified

    W.E. Heasley
    12 Aug 2015 | 5:22 am
    ‘Some people who signed up for healthcare through ObamaCare may not have been qualified for the benefits they received, according to a government audit released Monday. For several months after the rollout of HealthCare.gov, the government’s website was unable to verify important parts of a customer’s application, such as household income, citizenship status and family size. The audit,
  • ACA/Obamacare: Health Insurance Is Not Health-care

    W.E. Heasley
    11 Aug 2015 | 9:24 am
    ‘Low- and middle-income consumers who use the marketplaces often are able to qualify for tax subsidies to offset the cost of monthly premiums and help them afford care. But while the Department of Health and Human Services has touted low premiums averaging $100 a month for the majority of Americans who use exchanges, that message only tells part of the story, leaving out details about copays,
 
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    Monetary Realism

  • Real Business Cycle Theory does not match even basic facts

    Michael Sankowski
    19 Aug 2015 | 6:27 am
    Great catch by Noah Smith here on how measured returns to capital destroy real business cycle theory. Look at this chart and notice returns to capital are crazy high, and by some measures, at 30 year highs. This is devastating for RBCT. Investment should be off the charts today according to RBCT. Yet we are suffering through a relative dearth of investment. It should have been off the charts in 2005 too… This second chart is business investment as a percentage of GDP, over roughtly the same time frame as the returns to capital chart above. We are not investing at 30 year highs, even…
  • Brad Delongs desperate plea for 4% inflation target, and Graphene

    Michael Sankowski
    6 Aug 2015 | 7:03 am
    Brad Delong wrote an interesting post a few days back about bad fiscal policy and what this means for inflation targets. It’s hard to overstate the importance of keeping money sloshing around in the system. There is a short, but enourmously impactful list of benefits of higher inflation which are not part of the day to day discussion on inflation, and not really part of the professional discussion either. One incredibly important benefit to higher inflation is the amount of money sloshing around in the economy. It’s usually higher than during times of deflation, or even normal…
  • Not Everybody Does It and Feynman Integrity

    Michael Sankowski
    4 Aug 2015 | 4:48 am
    Paul Romer upended the apple cart with his broad statement Freshwater economists aren’t doing science or even trying to do science. This is an unbelievably strong accusation of professional malfeasance. It basically accuses the Freshwater crowd of not doing their job. Paul Krugman piles on – flat out providing examples of the biggest Saltwater economists acting on a much higher level of ethical integrity. What is the level of integrity required? Richard Feynman said these incredible words: “It’s a kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific thought that…
  • Crazy Talk: Raising rates while Inflation is near 70 year lows

    Michael Sankowski
    24 Jul 2015 | 9:59 am
    I do not get it. I do not understand why there is any talk of raising rates at all. Inflation isn’t just low, it’s freakishly low. Inflation is extremely low – there is no other honest way to think about the inflation level. Look at this chart, which goes back nearly 70 years:   This chart goes back to January of 1947. The chart covers 68 1/2 years of U.S. inflation. Where are we relative to the last 70 years? Inflation as measured by CPI has only been lower 4 times. Once quite recently, after the crisis, and the data says we are diving again. Some people say core…
  • Eternal Greek Problems are Good for German Exports

    Michael Sankowski
    21 Jul 2015 | 6:23 am
    Back when I was writing on currency trading for Agora Publishing in 2009-2010, I wrote dozens of articles about the Euro. Something to keep in mind when sorting through the debt problems is these problems are great for the German economy. Germany gets to export with a Euro valued far lower than it would be if there were no debt problems. This allows them to be competitive in the world market when they should not be competitive. The idea is pretty simple. If Greece has an unsustainable debt problem, there is a risk of default. Default means you do not get back as many Euros as you lent to…
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    FTMDaily.com - Geopolitical Analysis, Economic Insights, and Investing Ideas

  • CHART: This Country’s Stock Market is Flashing a New Sell Signal

    Jerry Robinson
    2 Sep 2015 | 8:00 am
    With the steam running out of this Asian stock market, our system is now flashing a long-term sell signal... and it's not China. The post CHART: This Country’s Stock Market is Flashing a New... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • Global Stocks Make Grim September Debut

    Jerry Robinson
    1 Sep 2015 | 12:56 pm
    The global economy is slowing and it is shocking bullish investors into reality. Be prepared. The post Global Stocks Make Grim September Debut appeared first on FTMDaily.com - Geopolitical... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • CHART: Volatility Rocks the Global Financial Markets

    Jerry Robinson
    31 Aug 2015 | 8:02 am
    Major technical damage has occurred to the charts of U.S. stocks, and the path of least resistance is down. Be advised. The post CHART: Volatility Rocks the Global Financial Markets appeared first... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • VIDEO TUTORIAL: Understanding Option Price Movements

    FTMDaily.com
    28 Aug 2015 | 6:00 am
    In Lesson #2 of our Options Trading University, Jennifer Robinson explains option price movements. In this lesson you will be introduced to two key terms: delta and volatility. The post VIDEO... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • S&P 500 Index Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

    Jerry Robinson
    27 Aug 2015 | 9:43 am
    While the future direction of this market is anyone's guess, our own analysis suggests that this selloff is in its early stages. The post S&P 500 Index Analysis: Key Levels to Watch appeared... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
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    Tao Economics

  • The One Thing You Must Watch to Avoid Disaster in the Market

    Cor Bader
    25 Aug 2015 | 8:32 am
    Yesterday I explained that I do not believe we are going to see a “correction” as bad as something like 08/09.  I stated that after this 6 year bull market people should expect stocks to drop at some point. Today I am going to elaborate a bit more on why I think the current stock market drop won’t turn into a catastrophe (at least in terms of the Dow Jones). First there is major support for the Dow at 12,000 points.  You can see it in the chart below. If the Dow drops to the 12,000 from today we are looking at a further 12% to 15% drop. The last time the Dow was at this…
  • The Correction is Here: Dow Plumets

    Cor Bader
    24 Aug 2015 | 7:26 am
    U.S stocks have been in a bull market now for the last 6 years.  It seems as though a correction should not be coming out of left field for everyone. Hopefully your discipline has led you to keep some powder dry (cash) and you are building a great watch list of companies you would like to own. My suggestion  is to watch companies that you KNOW will be around a couple of decades from now and love to reward their shareholders with dividends.   Now the tough part is to wait. I'd always heard about a secret society that guarded 5 secrets about the system Read more What if you had the…
  • You owe me $5 bucks, here is my phone number.

    Cor Bader
    29 Jul 2015 | 7:06 am
    I just sent some money to a friend to pay for my dues for our softball league.   I sent it using my phone with the Square App.  You may have used this technology before.  I was at a bar with some work friends and instead of splitting the check, one person took care of it on his credit card and the others sent him cash for there beers, while one person sent money via Venmo on his phone. There are now tons of ways to send money via your phone.  There is Apple Pay, Google Wallet, Pay Pal, you can now even send money to a friend via Facebook. We are rapidly becoming a cashless society.  It…
  • How Much Do you Rely on ATM’s?

    Cor Bader
    14 Jul 2015 | 8:48 am
    Greek pensioners attempt to withdraw their money from one of the country’s national banks Louisa Gouliamaki / AFP – Getty Images “How much do you rely on ATM’s?” that was the question I was asked last week by a work colleague during the Greek crisis.  The answer?  Not at all!  It was a strange to realize how little I rely on getting cash out of the ATM machine.  I use cards for most purchases as it is easier to track my spending.  I do like having a little cash on hand though just in case.   What if credit was suddenly cut off and limits were imposed on how…
  • The Market’s Shit Sandwich

    Cor Bader
    7 Jul 2015 | 9:54 am
    There is no obvious move to make in this market in my opinion. For each asset there are decent arguments for being long and being short. Lets start with the stock market.  The short case is that is stocks have been in a bull market for about 7 years and it needs a break.  On the flip side trader stock market sentiment is bearish wish usually means it will keep climbing a wall of worry.  Today the stock markets are down and it looks like the S&P is rolling over while trading below it’s 50 day moving avg.  Be cautious. Lets move to the bond market.  Bonds are rallying big time…
 
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    Exchange Rates UK - Currency News

  • Bullish US Dollar? GBP/EUR and GBP/USD Edge Lower, Canadian Dollar Trending within a Limited Range

    Colin Lawrence
    2 Sep 2015 | 4:00 am
    Pound Sterling to US Dollar exchange Rate Predicted to Soften on UK Construction The Pound Sterling to US Dollar exchange rate edged lower by around -0.2% on Wednesday morning. After British economic data failed to impress, the Pound softened versus many of its currency rivals. August’s UK Construction PMI was predicted to rise from 57.1... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Canadian Dollar - CAD Exchange Rate Slips vs USD, EUR but gains vs Pound Sterling

    Colin Lawrence
    1 Sep 2015 | 8:00 am
    Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar Rate Predicted to Edge Lower on Mixed Canadian Data The volatility of oil prices has seen the Canadian Dollar exchange rate fluctuate considerably over the past few days. During Wednesday’s European session, the CAD edged higher versus many of its major peers despite crude prices edging lower.... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Pound Sterling Forecast 2015: GBP vs Rand, Danish Krone, Norwegian Krone and Swedish Krona

    Colin Lawrence
    1 Sep 2015 | 8:00 am
    British Pound Fluctuates on UK Manufacturing Dip, GBP to Rand, Swedish Krona, Danish Krone, Norwegian Krone News The British Pound is generally trending lower versus the Rand (ZAR), Danish Krone (DKK), Swedish Krona (SEK) and Norwegian Krone (NOK) on Wednesday morning with traders still concerned over the lack of progress seen in British... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Pound Euro Exchange Rate Outlook: GBP/EUR at Weekly-Low after UK Manufacturing Data Falls Short of Predictions

    Colin Lawrence
    1 Sep 2015 | 7:00 am
    UK GDP Data Failed to Boost Sterling (GBP) as Euro (EUR) Trading Remained Cautious Wednesday morning's foreign exchange markets saw the pound to euro exchange rate advanced by around 0.2 per cent. The appreciation in GBP/EUR can be linked to dampened demand for safe-haven assets after Beijing intervened in China’s equity market.... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Euro: BNPP Forecasts EUR/USD & EUR/GBP Short as ECB will Signal it’s Closer to Easing this Week

    Colin Lawrence
    1 Sep 2015 | 6:00 am
    Latest Euro Exchange Rate Predicted to Slide vs Pound and Dollar after UK Manufacturing Missed Estimates The new found safe-haven qualities of the Euro has caused the EUR exchange rate to decline on Wednesday morning after risk appetite improved following China’s equity market recovery. In addition many analysts, including those from... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
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    BusinessClimate.com Blog

  • Venturing Out: Top Startup Cities With Opportunity and Affordability

    Emily McMackin
    7 Aug 2015 | 3:30 am
    For entrepreneurs aspiring to launch successful businesses centered around tech, media, fashion, food and other burgeoning fields, San Francisco, New York City and Portland might seem like the obvious places to go to fulfill their dreams. But plenty of other cities offer established infrastructure and skilled workforces in these areas at a fraction of the business costs and living expenses. Entrepreneur magazine just released its list of the hottest startup cities outside of the usual suspects. These include cities where startup dreams come easier and cheaper, but still have the potential to…
  • Universities and Economic Development: Colleges, Communities, Collaboration

    Bill McMeekin
    5 Aug 2015 | 3:30 am
    The presence of a higher education institution, or better yet more than one of them, has long been viewed as a key component of a community’s business climate. And with the desire of communities to attract talent, develop workforces and promote entrepreneurial growth, the linking of universities and economic development is more true than ever. Colleges and universities, private-sector companies and economic development organizations are partnering in more frequently and in unique ways to create economic opportunity and leverage the synergies that town and gown collaboration can bring.
  • Production Powerhouses: Manufacturing Jobs Shifting to Smaller, More Suburban Cities

    Emily McMackin
    31 Jul 2015 | 3:30 am
    Manufacturing continues its comeback across the country, and the regions leading its revival include many small to medium-sized cities, including those located in surburban areas of larger cities. The industrial centers of the past – New York City, Chicago and Los Angeles – have shed hundreds of thousands of jobs since their heyday, while cities in the Sunbelt, Rustbelt and beyond are picking them up. The reasons for this vary, from strict environmental laws and stronger unions in large cities to cheaper land and richer resources elsewhere. Cities that are building the most momentum in…
  • Panama Canal Expansion Could Lift Smaller-Market Ports

    Bill McMeekin
    30 Jul 2015 | 3:30 am
    When completed sometime early next year, the $5.2 billion Panama Canal expansion project will launch a new era in shipping, allowing larger capacity post-Panamax vessels to navigate through the canal and have direct access to the East Coast. The impending widening has spurred projections of increased port activity on the East Coast, which could benefit port facilities not just in major markets, but in medium-size metros as well. East Coast ports have spent an estimated $9 billion on facility improvements such as increasing channel depths and raising bridge heights to accommodate the…
  • Growth Engines: Manufacturing, Energy Still Biggest Job Creators for Smaller Economies

    Emily McMackin
    17 Jul 2015 | 8:35 am
    Information technology may be driving growth in America’s largest cities, but manufacturing and energy are still the biggest economic engines for its smaller ones. Tourism is also contributing to growth in smaller cities that are becoming vacation meccas for their larger urban neighbors, and college towns are flourishing by building up their knowledge-based economies. Rankings of the best small- and medium-sized cities for jobs show several types of smaller cities thriving: industrial winners, energy hot spots, playground towns and college towns. Cities of this size (less than 150,000…
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    The Conscience Blog

  • Food Banks: A Bailout Too Far?

    Iyobosa
    5 Aug 2015 | 10:51 pm
    Food banks are somewhat provocative. The outcry of emotion usually triggers off related discussions, often about how austerity has pushed some members of society to use them and also how much food supermarkets and food stores throw away. Their individual usage has been increasing dramatically over the last five years and they have become a sensitive subject relating to the government’s austerity measures; you could even suggest their increase in use is one of the staples of the Conservative government. But is their usage beneficial in both the short and long run? Austerity has been covered…
  • Has The Government Improved The Standard Of Living In The UK?

    Iyobosa
    20 Apr 2015 | 2:14 pm
    With General Election campaigns well under way and the speculative dust settled from the 2015 Budget the timing is right for an analytical look at the coalition and their five-year premiership so far. This piece is not aimed at dissecting each manifesto claim made by the Tories, rather a commentary on living standards in the UK today. Have the government’s policies actually improved the living standards of the average UK citizen? Measuring living standards and the statistics and data used is critical to illustrate an accurate portrayal of actual living standards for the average person.
  • Great Read

    Iyobosa
    4 Mar 2015 | 12:40 am
    Hello world. Today’s read touches on a poignant issue and that is the property market in the UK. I’ve previously touched on this issue here where I spoke about the dramatic effect gentrification is having on London. This piece has similarities. The report is from Transparency International UK and they make suggestions that could deter potential criminals laundering their dirty money into the UK property market. Property in London is a secure investment as the price rarely drops due to excess demand and limited supply. Moreover, if precaution is not applied then inflationary…
  • Great Read

    Iyobosa
    17 Nov 2014 | 12:35 am
    Hello world. Today’s read is from long time Daily Telegraph columnist Liam Halligan. Halligan has accurately pointed to flaws in the current economic revival attempt and has pointed the finger at the current recovery effort in its unfortunate failures to lead to genuine economic growth. In the coming weeks I’ll be discussing the economic effort as we approach the next election in 2015. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11233155/Recovery-The-UKs-economic-revival-is-far-from-secure.html
  • Scottish Independence: Be Careful What You Wish For

    Iyobosa
    18 Sep 2014 | 2:48 am
    Scottish not British This is a special piece about the SNP’s attempts for a Currency Union with the rest of the UK. It is flawed and the implications could be drastic. All patriotic rhetoric aside, the Scottish people should be careful of what they wish for. Without question the potential breakup of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is a monumental and truly unique event. The Scottish people have been granted their request for the right as Scots to self-determination. This would result in much greater powers shifting away from Westminster and into the Scottish…
 
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    Latest blog entries

  • The Most Famous Man You've Never Heard Of

    16 Aug 2015 | 11:52 pm
    In the arena of pop music, one songwriter stands above the rest, with 54 songs in the top 10. It isn't Madonna, it isn't Elvis. It isn't even the Beatles, combining the talents of John Lennon and Paul McCartney. It is Max Martin. That's not a stage name for someone you've heard of. Max Martin has the audacity to hail from Sweden, and while you may not know the man, you know his music whether you like it or not. If you've heard the Backstreet Boys, N'Sync, Britney Spears, Katy Perry, Taylor Swift, Kelly Clarkson or even Bon Jovi, you've heard Max Martin's work.  Martin's pop wizardry…
  • Too Big to Win: Does a Large Military Lessen Preparedness?

    11 Jul 2015 | 8:24 pm
    As Donald Rumsfeld famously said to excuse the lack of appropriate armor on soldiers Humvees in Iraq: ...you go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time... During explanations for the United States' multi-hundred billion dollar military budget, you'll hear words like "combat ready" and "preparedness", describing how the United States could be invaded at any time, or (more likely) need to invade someone else at a moment's notice. Unfortunately, during this endless period of preparation for an unknown conflict, tremendous expense and effort is…
  • How the Internet is Ruining Journalism

    11 Jul 2015 | 2:18 pm
    For anyone, almost anywhere on earth, the easiest way to do anything is to do it online. From buying to communicating, reading, researching or entertaining pretty much everything that has ever been conceived of is online, and will be delivered to your eyeballs or your doorstep without you having to even put on underwear. And so, journalists, no more interested in putting on their underwear than the rest of us, appear to have looked to the internet to find the pulse of world culture. Rather than interview face-to-face and reach out into the real world, they have dragged in the cultural…
  • Record Busting Stock Market Still Below 1999 Purchasing Power

    12 Jun 2015 | 6:12 am
    In the search for unvarnished truth, sometimes you have to look to unconventional sources. My personal favorite cutter of financial flim flam is the historical price of a Big Mac in the United States. Two all-beef patties on a sesame seed bun are a much more constant measure of value than the US dollar. Considering the USD has lost 98 percent of its purchasing power in the past 100 years, and the Big Mac is one of the most constant and unchanging products on earth, I'd say we have a winner, certainly between the two. I've analyzed the stock market using cheeseburger prices before, as the…
  • The REAL Top 10 Deadliest Dog Breeds

    10 Jun 2015 | 11:10 am
    Shades of Thomas Paine is about the unbiased search for truth, typically truth regarding the lies spread by the powerful for their own benefit, but occasionally truth regarding dogs or brownies.  Pit bulls have become a flashpoint of debate, with supporters saying pit bulls are as gentle as a beagle and detractors saying any pit bull can and will snap at any time. As the author of SOTP, I wanted to know the truth. Not opinion, but fact. I found a treasure trove of information at dogsbite.org, in an exhaustive study of dog attack fatalities from 1982 to 2014. It separated the dog attack…
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    Macro Brief

  • US Vehicle Sales Should Remain Over 17 Million SAAR in August

    admin
    29 Aug 2015 | 9:16 am
    Automakers will release August vehicle sales next Tuesday (September 1st) and currently, analysts expect sales (Seasonally Adjusted at Annualized Rate) to remain above 17 million.   Here are some forecasts from several specialists:   1/ Edmunds: Stock Market Fluctuations Don’t Slow August Car Sales, Says Edmunds.com   Edmunds.com, the premier destination for car shopping, forecasts that 1,538,958 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in August for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 17.4 million. The projected sales will be a 2.1 percent increase…
  • Deflation Fear Spurs Talk of More ECB QE

    admin
    26 Aug 2015 | 3:13 am
    From Deborah L Hyde at Bloomberg:   Market expectations for euro-area inflation have fallen back toward pre-ECB QE levels, sparking talk among analysts that Europe’s rate-setters may have to ease further.   Barclays (Cagdas Aksu) - 5y5y fwd breakevens have cheapened globally over the past few weeks, and sensitivity to the oil price has increased. - Oil’s fall will likely lead the ECB to lower its inflation projections on Sept. 3 staff projections, especially with EUR/USD struggling to cheapen. - All of which means the bullish bias in EUR rates is unlikely to disappear as the ECB…
  • Popular Party Kept the Lead in July Poll while Podemos Remained in Third Position

    admin
    5 Jul 2015 | 3:14 am
    July’s Metroscopia poll for El País, published on Sunday, shows that Popular Party (PP) kept the lead (two consecutive month) with 23.0% of support but down from 24.5% in June.   In the meantime, the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE)’s estimated support reached 22.5%, down from 23.0% in June, but still above Podemos’ score.   As a matter of fact, the left wing party remained in third position with 21.5% estimated votes for the second consecutive time while in the meantime, Ciudadanos’ support rose from 13.5% to 15.0%.   In the coming months, traditional…
  • In Greece, it’s not a “bank walk” but really a “bank run”

    admin
    27 Jun 2015 | 3:46 am
    After midnight in Athens, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called a referendum on July 5 on whether he should accept the latest demands of its creditors. In the meantime, Greek officials announced that banks will remain open on Monday and they don’t plan Capital Controls.   The only problem is that people know the referendum increases the probability of a Grexit in coming weeks as suggested by the latest quotes on Betfair (see below).   #Betfair #Greece #GreeceCrisis #Greek @SpiegelPeter | More than 30% chance of #GREXIT in 2015 ahead of #Greferendum…
  • Investors Should Revise their Liftoff Expectations as FOMC Remains on Track to Raise Rates this Year

    admin
    21 Jun 2015 | 1:41 pm
    On Friday, San Francisco Fed President Williams (dove, FOMC voter) and Cleveland Fed President Mester (moderate, FOMC non-voter) both said they expect the FOMC to begin liftoff at some point later this year.   According to CNBC, San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams believes the U.S. central bank should raise rates twice this year if economic data meet expectations. In the meantime, according to WSJ, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said raising rates right now wouldn’t be a problem for the economy as a whole.   These two statements…
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    FT Alphaville

  • Fair and repeated warning: Humans, your purpose is at risk

    David Keohane
    2 Sep 2015 | 5:21 am
    To nick an opening from Climateer… at some point the labour-capital pendulum may not swing back. Not sure we’re there yet but an automated restaurant in San Francisco is surely a signpost on the road to some sort of hell, albeit potentially just one made up of shoddy dining experiences. Hell is… soylent served to you by an automaton in a room of people pretending they’re having a good time. Anyway. That aside, we may as well keep an eye on that pendulum.Continue reading: Fair and repeated warning: Humans, your purpose is at risk
  • Synthetic EM

    Izabella Kaminska
    2 Sep 2015 | 4:54 am
    So you bought an EM fund. Maybe it was an ETF, or maybe it was just a regular fund? Either way it gave you exposure to EM. And it was great. You could trade in and out of your EM fund as often as you wanted. There was proper unrestricted liquidity. It was awesome. And then some random EM country decided to suspend its stock market. But hey, it was still great for you, because you could continue to trade in and out of your fund as if nothing ever happened. Continue reading: Synthetic EM
  • The investment drought: Why football clubs aren’t alone in focusing on short-term goals

    Guest writer
    2 Sep 2015 | 4:39 am
    This guest post is from Simon Smiles, chief investment officer for ultra high net worth at UBS Wealth Management, and his strategist colleague Christopher Swann. __________ The latest transfer season in the UK was another record-breaker for the Premier League, with clubs shelling out £862m on players from other teams. That was over 10 times the annual sum that clubs have committed to the youth Elite Player Performance Plan – which aims to develop homegrown talent. This underinvestment may help explain why the Premier League is forced to import 67 per cent of players from abroad while the…
  • Markets Live: Wednesday, 2nd September, 2015

    Paul Murphy
    2 Sep 2015 | 3:00 am
    Live markets commentary from FT.com Continue reading: Markets Live: Wednesday, 2nd September, 2015
  • CLSA degrees of separation

    David Keohane
    2 Sep 2015 | 1:33 am
    And there we were innocently scanning our inboxes over lunch. Well played CLSA comms team, well played.Continue reading: CLSA degrees of separation
 
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    Marginal REVOLUTION

  • The paradox of no market response

    Tyler Cowen
    1 Sep 2015 | 10:39 pm
    There seems to be genuine uncertainty about what the Fed will do, or not do, this September. At a superficial glance, the good news scenario is if the Fed’s decision doesn’t matter much for the markets.  Woe unto you if your economy is so fragile that a quarter point or so in the short rate, mixed in with some cheap talk, were to matter so much. So if at first prices were to stay steady, following any Fed decision, then equities should jump in price.  That is the “no news is good news” theory, so to speak.  It’s a better state of the world if it is common…
  • A simple primer for understanding China’s downturn

    Tyler Cowen
    1 Sep 2015 | 9:54 pm
    I’ve covered these ideas before a number of times, but now the Chinese slowdown is common knowledge, so let’s put them in one place: 1. You can’t invest 45-50 percent of your gdp very well forever.  It’s amazing how long China’s run has been, but it is over.  The quality of their marginal investments is now low and that means their growth rate will be much lower too.  The low hanging fruit is gone, at least for the time being.  They might later on resurrect some new low-hanging fruit through institutional reform, we’ll see if they end up stuck in the…
  • Who amongst us knew that Gillian Tett wrote with Ernest Gellner?

    Tyler Cowen
    1 Sep 2015 | 12:40 pm
    Her new The Silo Effect: The Peril of Expertise and the Promise of Breaking Down Barriers is a tour de force of economics, anthropology, Pierre Bourdieu, management theory, and anecdotes about Sony and Facebook and UBS and Cleveland Clinic. It turns out Gillian wrote her doctoral thesis in anthropology on Islamic marriage practices in Tajikistan.
  • How many manufacturing jobs pay less than $15 an hour?

    Tyler Cowen
    1 Sep 2015 | 11:23 am
    In Mississippi, 7.3% of all workers in the state are manufacturing workers who make less than $15 an hour. Losing many of these jobs would have a serious negative impact on the state. Because of its sample size, the CPS is of more limited use for small geographies. However, there is a relatively large number of observations for Los Angeles County, CA. Almost 400,000 manufacturing workers live in the county, and 55% of them make less than $15 an hour. Many of these workers will be affected by $15 minimum wages that have been approved for the City of Los Angeles and the unincorporated parts of…
  • What should I ask Luigi Zingales?

    Tyler Cowen
    1 Sep 2015 | 10:14 am
    I will be doing a Conversations with Tyler with Luigi next Wednesday, eight days from now (do sign up!).  He is a brilliant and multi-faceted economist, and an Italian — what should I ask him?
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    Zero Hedge

  • The US Economy Is Not Awesome And It's Not Decoupled

    Tyler Durden
    2 Sep 2015 | 8:11 am
    Submitted by David Stockman  via Contra Corner blog, When the bubble vision stock peddlers get desperate, they talk decoupling. So by the end of yesterday’s bloodbath you would have thought China was on another planet, and that “commodities” were some trinket-like collectibles gathered by people who don’t wear long pants, drink coca cola or jabber on their cell phones. On these fine shores, of course, its all awesome from sea to shinning sea. So don’t be troubled. Buy the dip. Never mind that we are in month 74 of this…
  • To Citi, "The Failure Of ECB QE Looks Clear" And The Global Reserve Unwind Will Only Make It Worse

    Tyler Durden
    2 Sep 2015 | 7:50 am
    Mario Draghi and the ECB have a habit of patting themselves on the back when it comes to what they imagine the happy outcomes of their monetary policy decisions have been. In fact, they have a habit of congratulating themselves on positive outcomes even before said outcomes have been observed or have even had time to play out.  On the one hand, that sends a message to the market that the central bank has a lot of confidence in its own omnipotence and indeed, Mario Draghi is famous for executing one of the most successful examples of jawboning in the history of central banking when, after…
  • Oil Triple Whammy: Inventory Build, Iran Nuke Deal Has Votes, & China Gives Venezuela $5 Billion Loan

    Tyler Durden
    2 Sep 2015 | 7:38 am
    Following last night's epic inventory build., according to API, DOE has reported a 4.7mm barrel build but US crude production pluinged 1.4% (lowest since March). However, ths oil complexc has been hit by two other 'issues' this morning as Obama captures the votes he needs to confirm the Iran nuclear deal (guaranteeing more oil supply) and China encumbers more Venezuelan oil ($5bn loan) allowing them to keep pumping at below-cost levels. The reaction for now is notable selling pressure... Inventory Builds most in 5 months...   The Obama administration will be jubilant this…
  • Just When You Thought It Couldn't Get Worse For Brazil...

    Tyler Durden
    2 Sep 2015 | 7:20 am
    Brazil’s economy is incredible. Just when you’re sure - and we mean sure - that it can’t possibly get any worse, or at least not materially worse in the very short-term, something else happens to further underscore the deep, dark economic malaise plaguing one of the world’s most important emerging markets.  So after last Friday’s GDP print which confirmed that the country slid into recession during Q2 - a quarter in which Brazilians suffered through the worst inflation-growth outcome in at least a decade - and after July’s budget data which confirmed that the country’s…
  • US Recession Looms As Factory Orders Plunge 9th Month In A Row

    Tyler Durden
    2 Sep 2015 | 7:09 am
    US Manufacturers saw new orders rise at a modest 0.4% in July (missing expectations of a 0.9%). However, year-over-year Factory Orders crashed 14.7% (thanks in large part to last year's Boeing order dropping out of the cycle). But even ex-Transports, New orders tumbled 0.6% in July and plunged 6.9% YoY. This is the 9th month in a row of YoY drops and is without doubt signalling an imminent US recession. The breakdown as summarized by MNI: "The value of new factory orders rose 0.4% in  July, below the 0.7% increase expected in an MNI survey due to a sharp 1.3% drop in nondurables orders,…
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    nextnewdeal.net

  • The GOP Is Taking the Texas Women's Health Crisis National

    tprice
    1 Sep 2015 | 7:34 am
    As of today, nearly three thousand low-income women in Texas will need to find a new place to get their breast and cervical cancer screenings, thanks to a decision by lawmakers to oust Planned Parenthood from the program that subsidized care for uninsured women. The new rule is just the latest reminder that reproductive health services that were once off-limits are now fair game in the GOP’s long and tireless battle against abortion. Wendy Davis launched Texas into the national spotlight in the summer of 2013 when she filibustered HB2, a law that placed sweeping restrictions on abortion…
  • Why the NYU Community Is Coming Together to Demand Reform

    tprice
    28 Aug 2015 | 8:19 am
    College students across the country are rallying around issues ranging from rising student debt to divestment to sexual assault. These movements become stronger with each new campus group that adds its voice to the national collective, demonstrating that there is power in numbers. Yet while it is important to highlight national problems at the university level, these student groups would also benefit from collaborating to address problems within institutions. What if we took each campus in isolation and asked whether and why that campus’s student groups were dissatisfied with their…
  • Why Mayor de Blasio's Broadband Push Needs to Go Further—and Faster

    tprice
    27 Aug 2015 | 1:01 pm
    On July 16, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced a new initiative to bring free broadband service to 16,000 New Yorkers living in five public housing developments in the boroughs of Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx. In partnership with President Obama’s ConnectHome initiative, the de Blasio administration has committed an investment of up to $10 million dollars for five New York City Housing Authority (NYCHA) developments. Earlier this year they pledged $70 million to provide free and low-cost internet service for low-income communities. They will start with a demonstration project in the…
  • Four Crazy Economic Ideas You Might Hear at Tonight’s GOP Primary Debate

    tprice
    6 Aug 2015 | 11:45 am
    The Republican presidential candidates will have their first televised debate of the 2016 cycle tonight. Here's what they're likely to say about the economy: 1. Cutting taxes on big corporations and top earners is the best way to grow the economy. All the candidates on stage tonight at the GOP primary debate will express some flavor of “trickle-down economics”—the failed idea that low taxes for the most well-off is the best policy for economic growth. Through a series of policies implemented over the past 35 years, we have already tried this tax-cutting strategy—in fact, some would…
  • Bush Didn't Misspeak: The GOP Wants to Dismantle Reproductive Health Programs

    tprice
    5 Aug 2015 | 12:13 pm
    Last night Jeb Bush made a slip of the tongue that let us know just where he stands on reproductive health. “I’m not sure we need half a billion dollars for women’s health issues,” he said at an event in Nashville. In a way, he’s right: We actually need much more than half a billion dollars to fully meet the need for publicly funded reproductive health services. Bush has since backtracked on his comment, which came on the heels of Senate Republicans’ failed attempt to defund Planned Parenthood, but we should not be fooled. His remarks and the recent furor that led to said…
 
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    Jared Bernstein | On the Economy

  • Standard rant on standard errors

    Jared Bernstein
    2 Sep 2015 | 4:00 am
    I keep hearing this strange refrain about this Friday’s jobs numbers and it’s freaking me out a little. Important people pulling important levers seem to have decided that August’s job growth is really decisive in some cosmic way that’s going to resolve any lack of clarity regarding job market slack and the Fed’s plans for rates. I yield to no one on my obsession with the monthly jobs numbers. Once, when I was in China adopting one of my daughters, I stopped the proceedings to check the release (and I named her U-6, in honor of that important indicator of…
  • It’s all in the hat!

    Jared Bernstein
    1 Sep 2015 | 2:31 pm
    This whole time I’m crunching numbers, holding events, publishing papers, trying to elevate full employment to the national goal it deserves to be, when I should have just worn a hat. From an interview with someone at a focus group of Trump supporters: “We know his goal is to make America great again,” another woman said. “It’s on his hat. And we see it every time it’s on TV. Everything that he’s doing, there’s no doubt why he’s doing it: it’s to make America great again.” Anthony M crushed it on the design, I thought: Source: From Anthony Martinez’ House of…
  • Two up-to-date pictures of labor market slack

    Jared Bernstein
    1 Sep 2015 | 10:13 am
    [by JB and Ben Spielberg] Earlier today, Jared wrote: “Look at the employment ratio; look at Andy Levin’s all-in slack measure (I’ll post something on this later)—they’re still signaling a job market that is unquestionably improving but is still far from full employment.” In this post, we briefly explain some of the evidence that there’s far more labor market slack than is apparent from the unemployment rate alone. The unemployment rate doesn’t capture workers who, because of a difficult job market, have stopped looking for work.  The labor force participation rate – the…
  • Pressures on the Fed

    Jared Bernstein
    1 Sep 2015 | 8:09 am
    There are so many interesting threads in this Bin Appelbaum piece about the various pressures on the Fed right now, I’m not sure where to start! Re their interest rate liftoff, there’s a lot of angst around what’s likely to be a tiny move—25 basis points. Whussup with that? Economist Alan Blinder, a former Fed vice-chair his-own-self, put it this way: “There shouldn’t be this intense interest in a quarter-point increase, and there shouldn’t be this intense interest in whether it comes in September or December.” Certainly a fair point, even more so given that everyone believes…
  • Globalization under duress

    Jared Bernstein
    31 Aug 2015 | 5:25 am
    Over at PostEverything. Maybe it’s me, but it seems that mistake of action and inaction, ranging from costly to deadly, are both occurring more frequently and reverberating more widely.
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    Freakonomics

  • Are You Ready for a Glorious Sunset? Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    27 Aug 2015 | 7:10 am
    This is a transcript of the Freakonomics Radio podcast “Are You Ready for a Glorious Sunset?” [MUSIC: Brotherun, “Wishful Thinking” (from Brotherun EP Stephen J. DUBNER: In our previous episode, we talked about a set of TV commercials that use behavioral research to sell financial products like life insurance. Daniel GILBERT: It’s great to think optimistically but let’s plan for whatever the future might bring. DUBNER: And this got us to thinking about how you might sell a different kind of insurance – one that doesn’t even exist yet. And what kind of ad you’d make for…
  • Are You Ready for a Glorious Sunset? A New Freakonomics Radio Episode

    Stephen J. Dubner
    27 Aug 2015 | 7:10 am
    (photo: Josep Ma. Rosell) Our latest Freakonomics Radio episode is called “Are You Ready for a Glorious Sunset?” (You can subscribe to the podcast at iTunes or elsewhere, get the RSS feed, or listen via the media player above. You can also read the transcript, which includes credits for the music you’ll hear in the episode.) The gist: we spend billions on end-of-life healthcare that doesn’t do much good. So what if a patient could forego the standard treatment and get a cash rebate instead? Not long ago, we received an e-mail from a listener named Timothy Price: Why…
  • How to Make a Smart TV Ad: A New Freakonomics Radio Episode

    Stephen J. Dubner
    20 Aug 2015 | 7:30 am
    Harvard psychology professor Dan Gilbert has made a series of TV ads that are tiny behavioralist masterpieces. Our latest Freakonomics Radio episode is called “How to Make a Smart TV Ad.” (You can subscribe to the podcast at iTunes or elsewhere, get the RSS feed, or listen via the media player above. You can also read the transcript, which includes credits for the music you’ll hear in the episode.) I don’t watch too much TV but when I do, I see a lot of terrible commercials. They range from sophomoric to earnest to delusional. Occasionally you’ll see a clever ad but…
  • How to Make a Smart TV Ad Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    20 Aug 2015 | 7:08 am
    This is a transcript of the Freakonomics Radio podcast “How to Make a Smart TV Ad.” [MUSIC: Dan Sistos, “Caravan Jam” (from The Road to Euphoria Stephen J. DUBNER: Hello, my friends. I don’t always watch TV. But when I do, I see a lot of terrible commercials. Sometimes they’re sophomoric. MEDIA CLIP: Hey, Ralph, can I have a Dorito? Sure, when pigs fly. DUBNER: Sometimes they’re earnest. MEDIA CLIP: It’s a golden opportunity to turn every ride into a thrill ride. This is the pursuit of perfection. DUBNER: Sometimes the ads are just delusional. MEDIA CLIP: Look again! The…
  • The Dangers of Safety Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    13 Aug 2015 | 7:00 am
    This is a transcript of the Freakonomics Radio podcast “The Dangers of Safety” [MUSIC: Eric Bolvin, “Nostalgic Love”] Stephen J. Dubner: Hey podcast listeners.  I’ve been reading a book called Petty — it’s a biography of Tom Petty, written by Warren Zanes. Warren used to be in a band called the Del Fuegos; I used to be in a band called The Right Profile, and we played some dates with the Fuegos. I loved them; I loved Tom Petty too. And reading Warren’s book about Tom Petty brought back all these memories about what it means to be in a band. It’s hard — kind of…
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    Credit Writedowns

  • Do markets determine the value of the RMB?

    Michael Pettis
    20 Aug 2015 | 8:18 am
    By Michael Pettis Last Tuesday the PBoC surprised the markets with a partial deregulation of the currency regime, prompting a great deal of discussion and debate about the value of the RMB. Part of the discussion was informed by a consensus developing in one part of the market that the RMB is no longer undervalued but is in fact overvalued. […] The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. Do markets determine the value of the RMB? originally appeared on Credit Writedowns Links: RSS - Daily - Weekly - Twitter - Facebook - Contact Related posts: Albert Edwards on…
  • China’s stock markets and revisiting 2011 predictions

    Michael Pettis
    19 Aug 2015 | 5:55 am
    By Michael Pettis originally written on 31 Jul 2015 I plan to post a new entry very soon but before doing so I wanted to say a few things about the stock markets, which continue to be insane (but not unexpectedly so) and then repost a blog entry that is nearly five years old. By the time I published my […] The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. China’s stock markets and revisiting 2011 predictions originally appeared on Credit Writedowns Links: RSS - Daily - Weekly - Twitter - Facebook - Contact Related posts: Review: How My Ten Surprises for 2012 Fared…
  • The Greece debt bailout negotiations are really about France, not Greece

    Edward Harrison
    27 Jul 2015 | 12:37 pm
    This post was originally written for Credit Writedowns Pro on 12 Jun before Greece defaulted on loans to the IMF. The situation in Greece is not about Greece at all. It is about enforcing an economic framework onto all Eurozone countries. And because the policy goal is primarily about enforcing this economic framework everywhere in the eurozone, there is less policy space available […] The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. The Greece debt bailout negotiations are really about France, not Greece originally appeared on Credit Writedowns Links: RSS - Daily…
  • Did lending by foreign banks really cause the Greek debt crisis?

    Edward Harrison
    23 Jul 2015 | 10:51 am
    There are a lot of competing narratives going around as to why Greece is in such trouble relative to the rest of the eurozone. A lot of this centers on whether Greek fiscal profligacy or poor credit controls by foreign banks was the main cause of the Greek debt crisis. Let me throw my hat into this ring with a few comments. What I say below will generally shade toward the problem being one of fiscal profligacy worsened by an ECB monetary policy that was inappropriate for the eurozone periphery as a whole and Greece in particular. The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns…
  • The coming Greek bank nationalization, bail-in and privatization

    Frances Coppola
    20 Jul 2015 | 4:20 am
    The existence of capital controls eliminates contagion and makes it possible to bail-in deposits that would normally be considered to have systemic consequences. The more I look at it, the less benign this bailout deal appears. Indeed it looks to me as if it was set up to do considerable damage to the Greek economy. Once this becomes apparent, Greeks are surely likely to change their minds about staying in the Euro. The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. The coming Greek bank nationalization, bail-in and privatization originally appeared on Credit Writedowns…
 
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    Liberty Street Economics

  • Searching for Higher Wages

    Blog Author
    2 Sep 2015 | 4:00 am
    Luis Armona, Samuel Kapon, Laura Pilossoph, Ayşegül Şahin, and Giorgio Topa
  • A Distributed Version of Repugnance as a Constraint on Markets

    Blog Author
    1 Sep 2015 | 4:00 am
    Rod Garratt The 2012 Nobel Prize in economics was awarded to Alvin E. Roth and Lloyd S. Shapley for their work on matching problems. Two-sided matching problems, like assigning jobs to workers or dorm rooms to students, can be complicated enough. But sometimes the matching problem can be even more difficult. It may be that an item supplied by Alice is useful to Bob, but Bob has nothing of value to give to Alice. If, however, the item supplied by Bob is valuable to Charlie, then there is the potential for a matching chain. Charlie gives something to Alice, Alice gives something to Bob, and Bob…
  • Discounting the Long Run

    Blog Author
    31 Aug 2015 | 4:00 am
    Tobias Adrian, Richard Crump, Peter Diamond, and Rui Yu Expectations about the path of interest rates matter for many economic decisions. Three sources for obtaining information about such expectations are available. The first is extrapolation from historical data. The second consists of surveys of expectations. The third are expectations drawn from financial market prices, often referred to as market expectations. The last are usually considered to be model-based expectations, because, generally, a model is needed to reliably extract expectations from current prices. In this post, we explain…
  • Historical Echoes: How Members of the Society for Creative Anachronism Make Money

    Blog Author
    28 Aug 2015 | 4:00 am
    Amy Farber Have you seen these people? You might come upon them wearing historic period garb. The Society for Creative Anachronism (SCA), founded in 1966, is, according to its website, “an international organization dedicated to researching and re-creating the arts and skills of pre-17th-century Europe.”  The members like to recreate life in an earlier time, which means using the technology existing at that time and eschewing later technology (not all the time, just when they are in “anachronism mode”). A segment of this organization focuses on medieval times, and a subgroup of…
  • Entry and Exit Leads to Zero Profit for Bitcoin Miners

    Blog Author
    28 Aug 2015 | 4:00 am
    Rod Garratt and Rosa Hayes In a previous post, we discussed bitcoin miners’ incentives to undertake a 51 percent attack given the current condition of the bitcoin market. We also speculated that high profits and free entry would cause more miners to enter the market, driving marginal mining profits to zero in the long run. Since then, the price of a bitcoin has declined over 40 percent and both the hash rate and the difficulty level of the bitcoin mining problem, which adjusts automatically to changes in the hash rate, appear to have leveled off. Our most recent calculations suggest the…
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    The Incidental Economist

  • What’s important and/or interesting in health care?

    Austin Frakt
    2 Sep 2015 | 7:27 am
    Every so often someone asks me one of the questions I hate: “What is the most important and under-discussed health policy issue right now?” or some variant thereof. I hate it because of how I’m wired, not because it’s a bad question. The truth is, just about every health policy issue of import right now is a variant of an issue that has been important for decades and isn’t going away anytime soon either, whether under-discussed or not. My brain just isn’t as tuned to what’s hot and under-discussed as to what’s interesting (to me) or important…
  • On thinking about conflicts of interest in medicine

    Austin Frakt
    2 Sep 2015 | 4:00 am
    The following originally appeared on The Upshot (copyright 2015, The New York Times Company). Most of what we know about prescription drugs and medical devices comes from industry-funded clinical trials. Does the source of funding affect study findings? The question is at the heart of a longstanding debate about financial conflicts of interest in medicine and what to do about them. That debate was recently reinvigorated by a three-part series of articles on the subject in The New England Journal of Medicine. For many years that journal has, as have other medical journals,required study…
  • I guess surgeons aren’t like the rest of us

    Aaron Carroll
    1 Sep 2015 | 6:01 am
    When I was a resident, there were any number of times when I worked for 36 hours straight. I’d get to work around 6 or 7, work all day, then all night, and then stay on until late the next afternoon. I wasn’t just pushing paper, either. Lots of these times I was covering things like the infant intensive care unit, and performing procedures in the middle of the night or after having not slept. I always worried that the quality of my care would suffer. I know the quality of my person, did. That’s why I was so interested in this study in the NEJM. “Outcomes of Daytime…
  • Healthcare Triage: Planning for the End. Advance Directives or Death Panels?

    Aaron Carroll
    31 Aug 2015 | 12:27 pm
    Death Panels! Got your attention, right? Well, although we’re going to discuss death panels a little, they’re not real. What are real are advance directives, and those are the topic of this week’s Healthcare Triage. For those of you who want to read more: H. R. 3200 For ‘Death Panels’ Before She Was Against Them? Palin Endorsed End Of Life Counseling As Governor PolitiFact’s Lie of the Year: ‘Death panels’ Obama Returns to End-of-Life Plan That Caused Stir Medicare Program; Revisions to Payment Policies under the Physician Fee Schedule and Other Revisions to Part…
  • Kids are terrible at understanding their own weight

    Aaron Carroll
    31 Aug 2015 | 8:23 am
    From last month’s Academic Pediatrics, “Accuracy of Weight Perceptions in a Nationally Representative Cohort of US 8th Grade Adolescents“: Objective: To describe the accuracy of weight perceptions in a nationally representative sample of US 8th graders, its relationship with weight control intentions (WCI), and the relationship of weight misperceptions and WCI with diet and activity behaviors. Methods: Data analyzed came from the 8th grade wave (2006–2007) of the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study–Kindergarten Class, a nationally representative sample. Body mass index…
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    LewRockwell

  • About This Bear Market

    Ron Paul
    1 Sep 2015 | 10:01 pm
    Following Monday’s historic stock market downturn, many politicians and so-called economic experts rushed to the microphones to explain why the market crashed and to propose “solutions” to our economic woes. Not surprisingly, most of those commenting not only failed to give the right answers, they failed to ask the right questions. Many blamed the crash on China’s recent currency devaluation. It is true that the crash was caused by a flawed monetary policy. However, the fault lies not with China’s central bank but with the US Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve’s…
  • The Real Reason the Empire Hates Putin

    Russia Today
    1 Sep 2015 | 10:01 pm
    Russian President Vladimir Putin has drafted a bill that aims to eliminate the US dollar and the euro from trade between CIS countries. This means the creation of a single financial market between Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and other countries of the former Soviet Union. “This would help expand the use of national currencies in foreign trade payments and financial services and thus create preconditions for greater liquidity of domestic currency markets”, said a statement from Kremlin. The bill would also help to facilitate trade in the region and help to…
  • 10 Books and Their Influence

    No Author
    1 Sep 2015 | 10:01 pm
    When someone reads the right book at the right time in their life, it can have a profound effect. Such is the case for the people on this list, who come from all walks of life. These people have singled out a book that they read which had a life-changing effect on them. They, in turn, affected the worlds of popular culture, science, technology, and politics. 10 Competing Against Time – Tim Cook
  • Is Trumpism the New Nationalism?

    Patrick J. Buchanan
    1 Sep 2015 | 10:01 pm
    Since China devalued its currency 3 percent, global markets have gone into a tailspin. Why should this be? After all, 3 percent devaluation in China could be countered by a U.S. tariff of 3 percent on all goods made in China, and the tariff revenue used to cut U.S. corporate taxes. The crisis in world markets seems related not only to a sinking Chinese economy, but also to what Beijing is saying to the world; i.e., China will save herself first even if it means throwing others out of the life boat. Disbelievers in New World Order mythology have long recognized that this new China is fiercely…
  • Mummies Know Best

    No Author
    1 Sep 2015 | 10:01 pm
    In 2008, Greg Thomas, a cardiologist from California, was in Cairo for work. While there, he visited the Egyptian Museum of Antiquities with another cardiologist, Adel Allam of Al Azhar University in Cairo. They came across the mummy of King Merneptah, a pharaoh who lived 3,200 years ago. The description on Merneptah’s case said he had suffered from atherosclerosis, the buildup of plaque on artery walls. Both men were sure this must be wrong. How could an ancient Egyptian have had heart disease, when most of the risk factors for the disease – obesity, unhealthy diet, smoking and lack of…
 
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    Angry Bear

  • Global Volatility, Domestic Markets

    Dan Crawford
    1 Sep 2015 | 6:17 pm
    by Joseph Joyce Global Volatility, Domestic Markets Unlike the global financial crisis of 2008-09, the current disruption in the financial markets of emerging market nations was anticipated. The “taper tantrum” of 2013 revealed the precarious position of many of these nations, particularly those dependent on commodity exports. The combination of a slowdown in Chinese growth, […]
  • Open thread Sept. 1, 2015

    Dan Crawford
    1 Sep 2015 | 6:14 pm
  • Marking Beliefs to Market, Stan Fischer edition

    Ken Houghton
    31 Aug 2015 | 6:17 am
    Brad DeLong Friday morning: I cannot help but note strong divergence between the near-consensus views of Fed Chair Janet [Yellen]‘s and Fed Vice-Chair Stan [Fischer]‘s still-academic colleagues and students that tightening now is grossly premature, financial markets’ agreement with the hippies as evidenced by the ten-year breakeven, commercial-banker and wingnut demands for immediate tightening, the […]
  • Open thread August 28, 2015

    Dan Crawford
    28 Aug 2015 | 4:19 am
  • How Many Equations Should There be in Macroeconomic Models ?

    Robert Waldmann
    27 Aug 2015 | 3:08 pm
    Recently a very old debate among macroeconomists has been reopened (this happens from time to time). Paul Romer decided to discuss a key conference held in 1978 (yes really). Some (including me) think that’s about when the profession took a wrong turn largely following Robert Lucas. But in the discussion until about yesterday, it was […]
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    Macro and Other Market Musings

  • How to Create a Chinese Economic Crisis in Three Easy Steps

    27 Aug 2015 | 4:00 am
    First, peg the yuan to another currency that has been rapidly appreciating over the past year......this will choke the tradeable sector... ...and really put a damper on nominal spending growth.Second, respond to the above economic weakening by easing domestic monetary conditions. Over the past year, the People's Bank of China has done so with five cuts to its prime lending rate and several large reductions in the required reserve ratio for banks. Third, allow nervous investors to pull their capital out of China. Investors have come to expect a large yuan devaluation given the above…
  • A Work Around for the Fed's Knowledge Problem

    14 Aug 2015 | 5:18 pm
    Ramesh Ponnuru has a new article titled Fallible Fed Needs a Few Good Rules. Here is an excerpt:Some Republicans think that Congress should supply a framework for the Fed, making it more rule-bound. One much-discussed approach would have the Fed follow the “Taylor rule” -- named after John Taylor, a Stanford economist -- which says that the federal funds rate should be set according to a formula involving inflation, the long-run real interest rate, and the gap between the economy's actual output and its potential output. The Fed’s behavior might then be more predictable. It would raise…
  • Austrians vs Market Monetarists on Canadian Fiscal Austerity

    14 Aug 2015 | 3:34 pm
    One of the more popular tales of 'expansionary austerity' was Canada in the mid-to-late 1990s. During this time Canada slashed government spending and brought down its debt-to-GDP ratio. Despite this fiscal stringency, the economy grew steadily and the unemployment rate fell. How was this possible?Ramesh Ponnuru and I have argued this outcome occurred because the Bank of Canada (BoC) provided a monetary policy offset to the fiscal policy tightening. The evidence we point to in support of this view was the BoC cutting its target interest rate more than 500 basis points between 1995 and 1997.
  • China's Devaluation: Impossible Trinity, Deflationary Shocks, and Optimal Currency Blocks

    11 Aug 2015 | 2:00 am
    So China devalued its currency peg almost 2% against the dollar. It happened just as I was wrapping up a twitter debate on this very possibility, a very surreal experience. Many more twitter discussions erupted after the announcement of this policy change and I got sucked into a few of them. My key takeaways from these discussions on the yuan devaluation are as follows. First, this devaluation was almost inevitable. The figure below superficially shows why: the economic outlook in China had been worsening.The question is why? As I explained in my last post, the proximate cause is…
  • The Monetary Superpower Strikes Again

    7 Aug 2015 | 5:41 pm
    China's economy has been slowing down for the past few years and many observers are worried. The conventional wisdom for why this is happening is that China's demographic problems, its credit binge, and the related malinvestment have all come home to roost. While there is a certain appeal to these arguments, there is another explanation that I was recently reminded of by Michael T. Darda and JP Koning: the Fed's passive tightening of monetary policy is getting exported to China via its quasi-peg to the dollar. Or, as I would put it, the monetary superpower has struck again.The Fed…
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    niesr.ac.uk

  • Real case studies can help us to understand benefit sanctions

    HeatherRolfe
    24 Aug 2015 | 3:08 am
    A Freedom of Information (FoI) request from Welfare Weekly has led the Department for Work and Pensions to withdraw a leaflet featuring fictional case studies from ‘Sarah’ and ‘Zac’. The leaflet gave Sarah’s reflections on being sanctioned: ‘I didn’t think a CV would help me but my work coach told me that all employers need one. I didn’t have a good reason for not doing it and I was told I’d lose some of my payment’.
  • Evaluating impact in the social sector: a practical perspective

    LucyStokes
    21 Aug 2015 | 4:01 am
    Charities are increasingly required to demonstrate that they are achieving impact, based on robust evaluation of their work. While it is important to ensure resources are being used effectively, undertaking evaluation often poses challenges for charities, which may well have limited resources or experience with which to do this.
  • Can we solve the UK’s productivity puzzle?

    AlexBryson
    29 Jul 2015 | 1:11 am
    In the years since the financial crisis in 2008, the UK has seen poor GDP growth combine with sustained employment levels to push down output per worker. In this blog, Alex Bryson and John Forth explain what we know about why labour productivity has so been so dismal and whether we can solve the ‘productivity puzzle’. 
  • The implications of the Trade Union Bill

    JohnForth
    15 Jul 2015 | 10:51 am
    The government has today announced plans to place further restrictions on ballots for industrial action. This blog looks at the prevalence of industrial action in Britain and the likely implications of the Bill for employment relations. How common are strikes in Britain today?
  • George Osborne is committing to the wrong target

    Alasdair Smith
    14 Jul 2015 | 2:21 pm
    This is a guest blog by Professor Alasdair Smith, Professor Emeritus of Economics (and former vice-Chancellor) of the University of Sussex. George Osborne proposes to pass a law enshrining his fiscal target of a balanced budget in ‘normal’ times. This proposal is at first sight paradoxical. Why should a government pass a law requiring it to do what it wants to do? As always with Mr Osborne, there’s the political objective of making life uncomfortable for the opposition.
 
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    Bruegel

  • The globalization of angel investments

    Giuseppe Porcaro
    1 Sep 2015 | 5:09 am
    Highlights The last decade has seen a rapid expansion and deepening of the types of vehicles that fund start-up firms in the U.S. and worldwide. In particular, we have seen a growing role of angel groups and other more “individualistic” funding options for start-ups, such as super angels or crowd sourcing platforms. Authors seek to understand the nature and consequences of angel investments across a variety of geographies with varying levels of venture capital markets and other forms of risk capital. They ask whether angel investors improve the outcomes and performance of the start-ups…
  • Why is China finding it hard to fight the markets?

    Giuseppe Porcaro
    31 Aug 2015 | 2:38 am
    China’s market drama started in June this year with the collapse of the Shanghai stock exchange, followed by frantic interventions by the Chinese authorities. As if the estimated $200 billion already spent on propping up stock prices were not enough, China found itself in another battle with the market, defending the RMB against depreciation pressures after the PBoC devalued the RMB by nearly 2% on August 11. The cost of the foreign exchange intervention to keep the RMB stable is estimated at $200 billion. This adds to existing pressures on China’s international reserves, which though…
  • The global trade slowdown puzzle

    Aine Quinn
    31 Aug 2015 | 1:21 am
    Motivation and stylized facts about trade elasticity Bernard Hoekman writes that we should care about the growth performance of the trade/GDP ratio because trade is a channel for knowledge transfer (technology flows) and for specialization according to comparative advantage, thereby improving resource allocation and supporting higher economic growth and welfare (real incomes) over time. Another reason to care about whether trade grows faster than output is that net exports are a key channel for crisis-hit economies. If global trade is anemic, it becomes more difficult for these countries to…
  • The Rolling Global Crisis Will Come Home

    Aine Quinn
    26 Aug 2015 | 12:00 pm
    This article was also published in the Indian Express Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan have been quick to declare that India is well-protected from the global turmoil. It is their job to soothe investor and public nerves. And the large foreign exchange reserves are a defense against a flight of funds from India. But this is not a conventional financial crisis. We are in the midst of a rolling global growth crisis that began in 2007 and has now entered a dangerous phase. The illusion that India actually benefits from the recent turmoil—because, for…
  • The dragon sneezes, Europe catches a cold

    Giuseppe Porcaro
    26 Aug 2015 | 8:32 am
    Should we be worried about the turmoil in China’s stock market, and the spill-overs to markets in other countries? Two competing hypotheses currently exist: The first is that Chinese stocks had grown at unsustainable rates leading up to the crash, and this is simply a market correction back towards fundamentals, and not a warning of deeper weakness in the Chinese economy. This view would align with that of the ECB’s vice-president Vitor Constâncio: “Indications are that … the (Chinese) economy is not decelerating so much to justify the rout in the stock market. (…) The…
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    TaxVox

  • The Case of the Unreturned Call for Tax Code Simplicity

    Renu Zaretsky
    2 Sep 2015 | 5:00 am
    So far, at least 22 people are running for president. Only three have released detailed tax plans, but nearly all call for more simplicity—perhaps so much that we could file our returns on a postcard. In 2012, National Taxpayer Advocate Nina Olson called for simplicity, too: “A simpler, more transparent tax code will substantially reduce the estimated 6.1 billion hours and $168 billion that taxpayers spend on return preparation.” That’s a lot of time and money. Are taxpayers clamoring for a simpler, faster, and cheaper filing experience? Well, they are, and they are not. A…
  • Could a Carbon Tax Prevent The Catastrophic Consequences of Climate Change That Obama Fears?

    Howard Gleckman
    1 Sep 2015 | 11:07 am
    In recent days, President Obama has painted the risks of climate change in apocalyptic terms.  Speaking in Anchorage, AK on Monday, Obama warned that without quick action to slow or reverse global warming, "entire nations will find themselves under severe, severe problems: More drought. More floods. Rising sea levels. Greater migration. More refugees. More scarcity. More conflict.” Yet for all his tough rhetoric, Obama’s own policy proposals are rather modest. After failing to convince Congress to enact a “cap and trade” system to limit carbon emissions, Obama has increasingly relied…
  • Thirty Days Hath September: Stay tuned for tax plans to remember?

    Renu Zaretsky
    31 Aug 2015 | 5:00 am
    Congress is in recess. The Daily Deduction will publish Mondays until Congress returns in mid-September. September could be a big month for candidate tax plans. GOP contender Donald Trump plans to release his comprehensive plan in September. He vows to raise taxes on hedge fund managers but provide tax relief to the middle class. Meanwhile, Jeb Bush says he’ll release his plan on September 9. Worth remembering: Tax cuts still do not pay for themselves. CBO projections tell a rich story. TPC’s Howard Gleckman explains that CBO’s projected rise in individual income taxes is largely due to…
  • CBO Sees a Big Increase in Individual Income Tax Revenues Over the Next Decade

    Howard Gleckman
    27 Aug 2015 | 1:32 pm
    In its semi-annual fiscal update released this week, the Congressional Budget Office projects that federal revenues will remain flat over the next decade, while spending—mostly for health care and Social Security—will rise. The result: Budget deficits, which have been declining in recent years as the economy has grown, will once again start to rise. But take a closer look inside CBO’s overall revenue estimates. While it expects payroll taxes to fall steadily as a share of the economy and corporate income taxes to end the next 10 years roughly where they are today, CBO figures individual…
  • Should College Endowments Be Taxed?

    Howard Gleckman
    25 Aug 2015 | 1:30 pm
    Last week, the often-provocative Victor Fleischer rocked the higher education world with a New York Times op-ed that accused universities of hoarding their often-enormous endowments instead of spending the funds on student aid. Vic, a tax law professor at the University of San Diego, suggested that colleges be required to spend at least 8 percent of their endowments each year. But he could have asked a more fundamental question: Why are these funds tax-exempt at all. There is no doubt that tax-exempt status is enormously beneficial to universities. They are exempt from local, state, and…
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    Eschaton

  • Jeb "Anchor Babies" Bush

    2 Sep 2015 | 8:20 am
    An actual paragraph appearing in the liberal New York Times.Mr. Bush is at his most animated discussing policy. And the only thing he may be more passionate about than issues is his conviction that the Republicans must become an inclusive, big-hearted party that appeals to people’s hopes rather than their resentments.Ask Michael Schiavo about that inclusive, big-hearted governor.Then there's that big-hearted party and the health care of 50% of the population.I, for one, don’t think Planned Parenthood ought to get a penny, though. And that’s the difference, because they’re not actually…
  • Rich Guys Can't Make Other Rich Guys Look Bad

    2 Sep 2015 | 7:47 am
    It's the 1st Law Of Rich Guys or something.In the end even Sony, which unlike most other major studios in Hollywood has no significant business ties to the N.F.L., found itself softening some points it might have made against the multibillion-dollar sports enterprise that controls the nation’s most-watched game.In dozens of studio emails unearthed by hackers, Sony executives; the director, Peter Landesman; and representatives of Mr. Smith discussed how to avoid antagonizing the N.F.L. by altering the script and marketing the film more as a whistle-blower story, rather than a condemnation of…
  • Mittens!

    2 Sep 2015 | 6:00 am
    Come back!Romney himself has become one of Trump’s most vocal detractors inside the party. “He’s someone to whom civility means a lot. The whole Trump thing really bothers him,” a close Romney adviser told me — and some Romney-ites are only too happy to talk up the prospect of their man jumping into the race if the Establishment fails to stop Trump, whose support in Iowa and New Hampshire is currently greater than Jeb Bush's, Scott Walker's, Marco Rubio's, Chris Christie's, and John Kasich's combined.
  • Morning Thread

    2 Sep 2015 | 2:14 am
    Digby is not too impressed with the Pope's ruling that parish priests will be allowed to absolve women of the sin of abortion, but only if they are truly repentant. Meh.
  • Then People Won't Like Them

    1 Sep 2015 | 4:00 pm
    I'm pretty skeptical about the technology, but given all the road ragers out there, driverless cars that prioritize safety too much won't be very popular. People like the illusion of control, and they like cutting off their fellow humans due to some perceived slight.
 
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Stan attribution

    Andrew
    1 Sep 2015 | 6:08 am
    I worry that I get too much credit for Stan. So let me clarify. I didn’t write Stan. Stan is written in C++, and I’ve never in my life written a line of C, or C+, or C++, or C+++, or C-, or any of these things. Here’s a quick description of what we’ve all done, listed in order of joining the development team. • Andrew Gelman (Columbia University) chief of staff, chief of marketing, chief of fundraising, chief of modeling, chief of training, max marginal likelihood, expectation propagation, posterior analysis, R, founder • Bob Carpenter (Columbia University)…
  • Constructing an informative prior using meta-analysis

    Andrew
    31 Aug 2015 | 9:29 am
    Chris Guure writes: I am trying to construct an informative prior by synthesizing or collecting some information from literature (meta-analysis) and then to apply that to a real data set (it is longitudinal data) for over 20 years follow-up. In constructing the prior using the meta-analysis data, the issue of publication bias came up. I have tried looking to see if there is any literature on this but it seems almost all the articles on Bayesian meta-analysis do not actually account for this issue apart from one (Givens, Smith and Tweedie 1997). My thinking was that I could assume a data…
  • Uri Simonsohn warns us not to be falsely reassured

    Andrew
    31 Aug 2015 | 6:52 am
    I agree with Uri Simonsohn that you don’t learn much by looking at the distribution of all the p-values that have appeared in some literature. Uri explains: Most p-values reported in most papers are irrelevant for the strategic behavior of interest. Covariates, manipulation checks, main effects in studies testing interactions, etc. Including them we underestimate p-hacking and we overestimate the evidential value of data. Analyzing all p-values asks a different question, a less sensible one. Instead of “Do researchers p-hack what they study?” we ask “Do researchers p-hack…
  • On deck this week

    Andrew
    31 Aug 2015 | 6:00 am
    Mon: Constructing an informative prior using meta-analysis Tues: Stan attribution Wed: Cannabis/IQ follow-up: Same old story Thurs: Defining conditional probability Fri: In defense of endless arguments Sat: Emails I never finished reading Sun: BREAKING . . . Sepp Blatter accepted $2M payoff from Dennis Hastert The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • “Another bad chart for you to criticize”

    Andrew
    30 Aug 2015 | 6:25 am
    Stuart Buck sends in this Onion-worthy delight: The post “Another bad chart for you to criticize” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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    macroblog

  • Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?

    macroblog
    1 Sep 2015 | 12:06 pm
    A recent article by Jason Faberman and Alejandro Justiniano at the Chicago Fed shows that there is a strong relationship between quit rates—as a proxy for the pace of job switching—and wage growth. Movements in the quit rate and wage growth are both procyclical. A tighter (weaker) labor market implies workers are more (less) likely to find better employment matches, and employers are more (less) willing to offer higher wages to attract new workers and retain existing workers. To get some idea of the different wage outcomes of job switching versus job staying, we can use microdata…
  • No Wage Change?

    macroblog
    21 Aug 2015 | 11:07 am
    Even when prevailing market wages are lower, businesses can find it difficult to reduce wages for their current employees. This phenomenon, often referred to as "downward nominal wage rigidity," can result in rising average wages for incumbent workers despite high unemployment levels. Some economic models predict that a period of subdued wage growth can follow, even as the labor market recovers—a kind of delayed wage-adjustment effect. In her 2014 Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Janet Yellen suggested this effect may explain sluggish growth in average wages in recent years, despite…
  • Getting to the Core of Goods and Services Prices

    macroblog
    17 Jul 2015 | 8:37 am
    In yesterday's macroblog post, I highlighted an aspect of a recent Wall Street Journal article that concerns how households perceive inflation. Today, I'm going back to the same well to comment on another aspect of that story, which correctly notes that service-sector prices are rising at a faster clip than the price of goods. Of course, this isn't just a recent event. Core services prices have outpaced core goods prices over the past 50 years, save a few short-lived deviations. What's unusual about the current recovery, as the chart below shows, is how low services inflation has been. In the…
  • Different Strokes for Different Folks

    macroblog
    16 Jul 2015 | 8:20 am
    A recent Wall Street Journal article offered an interesting conjecture. The author stated,"[b]ecause consumers pay service bills more often than they buy most goods other than food and gasoline, perceptions of inflation skew on the high side." Research supports the idea that inflation perceptions are unusually influenced by particular prices. For example, some authors have noted that inflation expectations appear to be unusually influenced by movements in gasoline prices. This research by Georganas, Healy, and Li shows that inflation perceptions are affected by how frequently people buy a…
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    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • Nothing to fear but...

    chris
    25 Aug 2015 | 5:17 am
    Yesterday's big stock market falls pose the question: do we really have anything to worry about? It's tempting to answer: no. The claim that stock markets have predicted nine of the last five recessions is a cliche because it is true - although why (pdf) this is is a matter of doubt. And we know from the very mild repercussions of the tech crash of the early 00s that exogenous falls in share prices don't have catastrophically negative wealth effects. Nevertheless, I suspect there are four concerns here. First, the fact that the Chinese economy is slowing down (pdf) is a symptom…
  • Techno-optimism & low investment

    chris
    22 Aug 2015 | 2:04 am
    Gillian Tett points out that, despite talk of a technology boom, corporate investment is weak. This isn't as paradoxical as it seems. In fact, techno-optimism might be one reason for low investment. I say so for a simple reason: future technical progress could well render today's investments unprofitable. If you spend £10m installing robots in a factory today you might be able to undercut your non-robotized rivals. But if a new company later installs better robots for £5m, it will undercut you and destroy your profits. As Marx wrote: In addition to the material wear and tear, a…
  • On wishful thinking

    chris
    20 Aug 2015 | 6:07 am
    David Aaronovitch in the Times has a nice piece on how people fall for conspiracy theorists and conmen: What a fraudster, a fantasist or a hoaxer needs to be able to survive, is to fall among people who are anxious to believe. This urge to believe is not confined to extreme cases. It's much more common than that. A while ago, Guy Mayraz did a neat experiment at Oxford. He asked subjects to use charts of the price of wheat to predict future price moves. Before doing so, he randomly divided them into two groups: "farmers" who would profit from a rising price, and…
  • Ballroom dancing, & Sapir-Whorf

    chris
    19 Aug 2015 | 6:25 am
    Last night I went to a ballroom dance lesson, which set me thinking about the Sapir-Whorf hypothesis. When you are a rank beginner, the natural thing to do is to speak as you are moving: "left-forward-back" and so on. But this of course confuses your partner, who must do the opposite. You can use objective locators - "to the bar", "to the window" - but whilst these work OK for the rumba, they cause a car-crash in the waltz. What we need, I thought, are observer-neutral spatial terms - something that means "my left/your right." Although such terms are…
  • Corbynomics - meh

    chris
    18 Aug 2015 | 6:07 am
    There are two common objections to Corbynomics (pdf) which seem to be to be misplaced. The first is that it is out-of-date. "A howl for the past" says John van Reenen. "Old solutions to old problems" says Yvette Cooper. I'm not so sure. People's QE is a response to a problem which is perhaps more severe now than in the past - that the UK invests too little. The share of business investment in GDP has been trending downwards for years: complaints about BT's tardiness in rolling out fast broadband are symptomatic of a wider problem. And if fears of secular…
 
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    Moneybox

  • A Federal Judge Just Shredded Uber’s Arguments Against a Major Class-Action Lawsuit

    Alison Griswold
    1 Sep 2015 | 4:17 pm
    Uber said there was “no typical ‘Uber driver.’ ” A federal judge disagreed. In a ruling on Tuesday, U.S. District Court Judge Edward Chen granted Uber drivers class-action status on the question of whether they are independent contractors or employees. The decision could allow the plaintiffs in the suit to bring their claims in front of a jury on behalf of thousands of others in California. It’s a scenario that Uber has fought bitterly to avoid. In early July, the ride-hailing company filed a 52-page motion opposing class certification in the case, accompanied by a 102-page…
  • Your Lifelong Dream of an Egg McMuffin for Dinner Is Now Reality

    Alison Griswold
    1 Sep 2015 | 2:04 pm
    Here at the Slate Moneybox we are unabashedly fond of the Egg McMuffin, which is why we are so excited to bring you this update: Starting Oct. 6, McDonald’s will debut all-day breakfast across America. That’s from the Wall Street Journal, which reports that the Golden Arches will offer “core” breakfast items such as hot cakes, sausage burritos, and—depending on the region—Egg McMuffins or biscuit sandwiches around the clock at its more than 14,300 U.S. locations. In addition to fulfilling my, and maybe your, lifelong dream of being able to procure an Egg McMuffin for dinner, the…
  • Chipotle Is Being Sued Over Its Anti-GMO Advertising. Serves Them Right.

    Alison Griswold
    1 Sep 2015 | 12:01 pm
    Chipotle is facing a new lawsuit over its recent GMO-free campaign. The California plaintiff, Colleen Gallagher, has accused Chipotle of false advertising for describing itself as the first national restaurant chain to be GMO-free when, “in fact, Chipotle’s menu has never been at any time free of GMOs.” Gallagher alleges that Chipotle has violated the Federal Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act through this misleading marketing and has tricked customers into paying extra for food that they falsely perceive to be more natural or organic or what have you. Per Reuters, her lawsuit “seeks class…
  • Gawker’s Plan to Keep Social Media From Ruling Its Business

    Lily Hay Newman
    1 Sep 2015 | 7:27 am
    The minimum requirements for blogging are a couch and a laptop; pajamas optional. The Gawker Media empire grew directly from these humble origins, but that was more than a decade ago, and now the company has a 15-year lease for three floors of a swanky Union Square office in Manhattan. When you visit, it's strange to see "blogging" manifested in physical design. Every architectural choice caters to the spirit of sitting on your couch in your underwear with your laptop. So when Gawker's new chief technology officer, Ian Fette, tried to find a room for us to talk in last week, he…
  • China Manipulated Its Stock Market Last Week Because of a Parade

    Jordan Weissmann
    31 Aug 2015 | 11:19 am
    After China's stock market started crashing earlier this summer, its government responded, in part, by having a giant state-backed financial institution buy shares and support prices. (It also handed loads of money to large brokerages so that they could buy buy buy when everyone else wanted to sell sell sell.) But after a while, Beijing pulled back. Authorities announced that they would ease up once "volatility" declined. Then the purchases seemed to stop altogether. And prices promptly tanked again. Eventually, things took another twist. As the Financial Times reports: After…
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    Economic Development Blog » Economic Development Blog -

  • Brevard County, Florida Getting Ready For Blue Origin Rocket Factory Announcement

    Economic Development HQ.com
    2 Sep 2015 | 6:57 am
    Space Florida, Brevard County and State of Florida officials are close to a big announcement about a new aerospace manufacturing facility by space transportation company Blue Origin. Blue Origin’s Shepard spacecraft test flight (photo – genphyslab/flickr) Supported by a package of incentives from the State of Florida and the North Brevard Economic Development Zone (NBEDZ), the company plans to make a capital investment of more than $200 million. Blue Origin plans to create 330 new jobs with an average salary of $89,000, which will generate new annual payroll of approximately $29…
  • Site Selection Top Utilities For Economic Development

    Economic Development HQ.com
    1 Sep 2015 | 8:45 pm
    Site Selection magazine has published its annual listing of the Top Utilities in Economic Development. Site SelectionTop Utility (photo – entergynewsroom.com) The magazine compiles this list every year based on a wide range of factors including an analysis of corporate end-user project activity in the previous year in each company’s territory, based on the Conway Project Database and submitted materials from utilities. The criteria also include the Utility’s own job-creating infrastructure and facility investment trends, and factors such as website tools and data, and…
  • Facebook’s $200M Prineville Data Center Expansion Supports Central Oregon Economic Development

    Economic Development HQ.com
    1 Sep 2015 | 8:04 pm
    Facebook has announced a more than $200 million capital investment to expand its data center operations in Prineville, OR. Facebook Prineville Datacenter in Oregon (photo – IntelFreePress/flickr) The company’s investment will go towards the addition of a third data center building that will add 487,700 square feet of space. Ken Patchett, director of Data Center Operations, West Region, Facebook, posted on the Prineville Data Center’s Facebook page that their “goals in both construction and the operation of Facebook’s data center in Prineville have always been to make…
  • Wisconsin Rapids Get Economic Development Grant For Tribune Building Redevelopment

    Economic Development HQ.com
    1 Sep 2015 | 6:07 am
    The Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation has awarded the City of Wisconsin Rapids a $472,000 grant to support the renovation of the Tribune building site. Video – RCCA Media The Wisconsin Rapids Daily Tribune vacated the building in Jan 2013, after it was purchased by the Incourage Community Foundation and dedicated for community uses to be decided by residents. The 19,868-square-foot Ellis Stone construction was built by former Tribune owner and publisher William F. Huffman, and first opened in May 1960. It has also housed WFHR AM 1320 and WWRW 103.3 FM radio stations, in…
  • Nike Supplier Gets Ohio Economic Development Incentives For Greater Cincinnati Facility

    Economic Development HQ.com
    31 Aug 2015 | 9:22 pm
    At its latest meeting, the Board of the Ohio Tax Credit Authority (TCA) approved state assistance for projects that will bring a total of $31 million in investments across the state. Legend Sportswear (photo – legendsports-au.com) This includes four Greater Cincinnati economic development projects that will generate over $1.6 million in capital investments and create or retain a total of 270 jobs. One of these four projects is a proposal by Legend Athletic Wear LLC to establish a new facility in the Greater Cincinnati region. The exact location of this facility is yet to be finalized,…
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    Washington Center for Equitable Growth

  • No, the Federal Reserve Is Not a Market Manipulator

    Brad DeLong
    2 Sep 2015 | 6:09 am
    Let me pile on to something Paul Krugman published last week, and make fun of William Cohan for writing and the New York Times for publishing hopelessly confused austerity pseudonomics: **Paul Krugman**: [Artificial Unintelligence](http://mobile.nytimes.com/blogs/krugman/2015/08/29/artificial-unintelligence/?referrer=): “In the early stages of the Lesser Depression… >everywhere you looked, people who imagined themselves sophisticated and possessed of deep understanding were resurrecting 75-year-old fallacies and presenting them as deep insights…. [Now] I feel an even deeper…
  • The cruel game of musical chairs in the U.S. labor market

    Austin Clemens, Marshall Steinbaum
    2 Sep 2015 | 5:15 am
    Last year, our colleague Elisabeth Jacobs referred to the fate of young people in today’s slack labor market as “a cruel game of musical chairs” because there aren’t enough jobs to employ everyone at their full earning potential. Workers with college degrees tend to win out in the competition for the few jobs that are available, but many must settle for lower-paying jobs than similarly credentialed workers entering the workforce in previous decades. Those without college degrees, in turn, are driven into even lower paying work or pushed out of the labor market entirely. Economists…
  • Martin Wolf and I See the Odds on the Different Future Chinas Somewhat Differently

    Brad DeLong
    2 Sep 2015 | 5:04 am
    Martin Wolf calls himself a long-run China optimist–that China is more likely than not following the Korean road, is now where Korea was in the early 1980s, and: South Korea’s real GDP per head has since nearly quadrupled in real terms, to reach almost 70 per cent of US levels. If China became as rich as Korea, its economy would be bigger than those of the US and Europe combined… Last week for the Huffington Post I gave my case for China pessimism: that what Japan, Korea, Spain–even Singapore–demonstrate is that escaping the middle-income trap requires institutional…
  • Schedules that work for families and the U.S. economy

    Heather Boushey
    2 Sep 2015 | 4:45 am
    Anyone who has a job knows that the key feature of work is giving someone else control of your time. For some of us, this is a straightforward process. The boss says our hours are nine-to-five, five days a week—end of story. But for millions of workers, selling their time to employers isn’t so simple. Many people have unpredictable schedules, both in terms of when they work and for how long. About four in ten young workers ages 26 to 32 know their schedule a week or less in advance, according to data from the University of Chicago’s psychology professor Susan J. Lambert, sociologist…
  • Must-Read: Mark Thoma: Syllabus for Monetary Theory and Policy

    2 Sep 2015 | 4:06 am
    Mark Thoma: Syllabus for Monetary Theory and Policy): “Everyone seems to be posting the syllabus… …for the graduate courses they are teaching this fall. Mine is simple. In my Monetary Theory and Policy course we are going to go through this book by Jordi Gali (don’t tell anyone I actually know this stuff): Jordi Gali: Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework
 
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    The Indian Economist

  • Intellectual Property for Start-Ups and Entrepreneurs, Part III: Patents

    Publishing
    2 Sep 2015 | 8:00 am
    By Dr. Kalyan C. Kankanala For a technology-driven start-up or entrepreneur, patents form the most important intellectual assets. They provide the necessary exclusivity and competitive advantage to start, build, and grow the business. Venture capitalists and investors also consider patents before making investment decisions. Thus, every technology-driven start-up must ensure that its technologies and inventions are properly protected under the patent regime. Once a decision on patent protection is made, the start-up company must file a patent application as soon as possible. Depending on the…
  • Intellectual Property for Start-Ups and Entrepreneurs, Part II: Trademarks for Business

    Publishing
    1 Sep 2015 | 8:00 am
    By Dr. Kalyan C. Kankanala Choosing the right name, logo, device or other business representation is usually the first asset created by an entrepreneur. Often, such representations are finalised based on a sense of emotional attachment rather than proper research. While it is important to be passionate about the business and its representation, every entrepreneur must take the following steps before finalising on a business representation: Ensure that the representation shortlisted is capable of achieving strong trade mark protection. Under the trademark law, a fanciful mark (newly coined…
  • Intellectual Property for Start-Ups and Entrepreneurs, Part I: The Importance and Risks of IP

    Publishing
    31 Aug 2015 | 8:08 am
    By Dr. Kalyan C. Kankanala Intellectual Property (IP) protection can provide both business and competitive advantage to a company by Providing much needed market exclusivity; Providing the tools to sustain and grow the business; Laying a foundation of assets to raise investment and funds; Enhancing financial valuation and minimising dilution from investments; Preventing misuse and misappropriation of assets; and Offering the business tools to face competition from large entities. Avoiding or mitigating risks is some times more important than protecting a start-up’s intellectual assets…
  • Devaluation of Chinese Currency: A desperate measure or a master stroke?

    Publishing
    30 Aug 2015 | 8:03 am
    By Amit Singh Introduction Last week, an unexpected devaluation of the Yuan by China saw it plunge the most in about 20 years, sending shockwaves across the currency markets globally. China’s central bank is allowing its tightly controlled currency, the Yuan, also known as the Renminbi, to fall in value. (The Renminbi is the official name of the Chinese currency, meaning “the people’s currency.” Yuan is the name of a unit of the Renminbi.) The move signals a shift in the bank’s monetary policy which may indicate that the country is moving towards a more…
  • An interview with Martin Reeves – Author, ‘Your Strategy Needs a Strategy’

    TIE
    29 Aug 2015 | 8:48 am
    Martin Reeves is Senior Partner at the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) & Director of the Bruce Henderson Institute at the firm. The Indian Economist had a chance to meet and speak with Mr. Reeves who is currently touring India to launch and promote his new book Your Strategy Needs a Strategy…
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    FiveThirtyEight » Economics | FiveThirtyEight

  • Public Transit Should Be Uber’s New Best Friend

    Nate Silver
    28 Aug 2015 | 3:30 am
    If Uber is worth its $50 billion valuation, it will have to do more than win over the market historically occupied by the taxi and limo industry —it will have to identify new types of customers.The biggest potential market is among people who own their own cars: The average American household spends around $8,500 on personal vehicles per year; multiply that by 125 million households, and you have a market worth in excess of $1 trillion per year. Persuading even a small fraction of households to give up their cars for Uber could be very lucrative for the company.But if Uber is to achieve…
  • Why The Plan To Shrink New Orleans Failed

    Gary Rivlin
    27 Aug 2015 | 3:30 am
    Moldy New Orleans still lay in ruins in January of 2006 as Joe Canizaro drove me to a favorite Italian restaurant of his in the city’s suburbs. It was a balmy Sunday, just four months after the catastrophic collapse of the city’s flood protection system, and Canizaro asked me a question I’ve never been able to answer.“Gary, what would you do?”Canizaro — a big-name real estate developer in town — was due to deliver an official plan for redeveloping New Orleans the next day. But he confessed that he was still struggling with it. The question he asked was simple but…
  • The Best Jobs Now Require You To Be A People Person

    Andrew Flowers
    25 Aug 2015 | 11:24 am
    Are you good at math? A computer whiz? Well, great! Presumably your “hard skills” are a surefire ticket to a high-paying job.Well, maybe that used to be the case. But it’s not necessarily so anymore. To land a lucrative job today, hard skills in math and engineering, for instance, may not be enough. As technology allows us to automate more technical jobs, new research shows that people skills — communicating clearly, being a team player — matter more than ever. And women appear to be the ones capitalizing on this shift in the workplace.“The days of only plugging away…
  • Has The ADA Broken Its Economic Promises To People With Disabilities?

    Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
    24 Aug 2015 | 9:45 am
    In 1984, Donna Walton was working as a news assistant at a newspaper in Washington, D.C., when she decided she wanted to learn more about the production of the paper. She requested a transfer and got one, arranging the artwork and graphics on the newspaper pages every day. There was just one problem: The job required her to stand for long periods of time, which was difficult because of her prosthetic leg. She asked if she could take breaks to sit, but her employers refused. Soon after, she lost her job.Walton said she’ll never know for sure if — as she suspects — she was fired…
  • Katrina Washed Away New Orleans’s Black Middle Class

    Ben Casselman
    24 Aug 2015 | 3:30 am
    Ten years ago, shortly after the floodwaters subsided, James Gray stood in the ruins of his New Orleans home and tried to salvage what remained of his belongings. They fit inside a handbag.“I don’t know if my wife will ever get over that,” Gray said recently.But Gray and his wife have since restored the New Orleans East home where they have lived for more than 20 years. Most of their neighbors have returned, too. And Gray, who now represents the neighborhood on the City Council, points to other evidence of rebirth in a district that has long been home to much of the city’s black…
 
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    Economics and everyday life at EconLife.com

  • Rockets, Feathers and Gasoline Prices

    Elaine Schwartz
    2 Sep 2015 | 4:45 am
    Gasoline prices rise faster than they fall because monopolistic competition provides retailers with some price control although their product is identical
  • What Our Food Says About Us

    Elaine Schwartz
    1 Sep 2015 | 5:00 am
    Because middling food like hamburgers is consumed by most people in the affluent West, what we eat does not necessarily reflect inequality or social status
  • The Maple Syrup Heist

    Elaine Schwartz
    31 Aug 2015 | 5:00 am
    Because the prices in Canada's maple syrup market are controlled by its strategic reserve, the market resembles a cartel that distorts supply and demand
  • Why a Life Needs a Price Tag

    Elaine Schwartz
    30 Aug 2015 | 5:00 am
    Although it seems callous, for safety regulation like speed limits and for victims' compensation like 9/11 we need to quantify the value of a life
  • Weekly Roundup: From Data Spies to Ivory Trackers

    Elaine Schwartz
    29 Aug 2015 | 5:00 am
    Our economic news summary ranges from elasticity and a Berkeley soda tax to the minimum wage and the cost of living, to the power of the market and ivory
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    Vox - All

  • USA's Mr. Robot became an obsession thanks to this one weird visual trick

    Todd VanDerWerff
    2 Sep 2015 | 10:49 am
    This has been the summer of Mr. Robot. USA's hacker drama went from that show with the goofy title to a minor TV obsession for many who got wrapped up in its coolly paranoid charms. And when a friend asked me why Mr. Robot feels like such a breath of fresh air, my answer came surprisingly easily: the show's visual aesthetic. How Mr. Robot bucks the usual TV trend TV is getting better about creating shows that feel directed, where it seems as if somebody is behind the camera, telling you the story in a way that would work even without dialogue. But on far too many shows, still, the aesthetic…
  • Fox News says Black Lives Matter incites violence. Critics said the same of MLK.

    German Lopez
    2 Sep 2015 | 9:00 am
    On Tuesday, conservative pundit Katie Pavlich told Fox News's Megyn Kelly that Black Lives Matter is now "a movement that promotes the execution of police officers." The day before, Bill O'Reilly and a Fox & Friends segment suggested Black Lives Matter is "a hate group." And last weekend, a Texas sheriff linked a deputy's death to "out of control" rhetoric from Black Lives Matter. This criticism of Black Lives Matter, which aims to squash racial disparities in the criminal justice system, and its protests is becoming increasingly standard, with pundits on Fox News and elsewhere blaming Black…
  • Hillary Clinton's declining favorability numbers, in context

    Jonathan Allen
    2 Sep 2015 | 8:40 am
    Buried beneath Wednesday's eye-popping headlines about Hillary Clinton's sinking favorability ratings, you'll find the reason that she's still on course to win the Democratic primary. First, the headline number: A new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows that 53 percent of Americans have an unfavorable view of Clinton, an 8 percentage point increase since July. Her favorable rating has declined by 7 percentage points to 45 percent over the same period of time, and the split among registered voters is even worse for her, at 56 percent unfavorable to 43 percent favorable. A majority of women (51…
  • Is GPS ruining our ability to navigate for ourselves?

    Joseph Stromberg
    2 Sep 2015 | 8:31 am
    I absolutely love GPS. I think the ability to get from one place to another, anywhere in the country, is one of the most remarkable gifts of modern technology. I've often reflected that I wouldn't terribly mind getting rid of my smartphone if I could somehow keep one app: Google Maps. But over the many hours I've used it, I've occasionally wondered about a troubling idea. Could our dependence on automated directions be eroding our ability to navigate for ourselves? We don't yet have a clear answer, and scientists haven't yet conducted experiments directlyobserving how GPS affects the brain.
  • The painful, divisive American Jewish debate over the Iran deal, explained

    Zack Beauchamp
    2 Sep 2015 | 8:20 am
    On Friday, President Obama gave a live address to the members of some of America's largest Jewish groups. The subject was, of course, the Iran nuclear deal. I say "of course" because at the moment it is the political issue for American Jewry. "Nowhere has the nuclear accord been more divisive than among American Jews," the New York Times's Jonathan Weisman writes. That debate "has taken on the appearance of the war of the Jews, as if only our community has a stake in the debate’s outcome," three prominent American Jewish leaders write in Ha'aretz. "When the U.S. ambassador to Israel, Dan…
 
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    Commentary - Money, Banking and Financial Markets

  • Is China's devaluation a game changer?

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    30 Aug 2015 | 7:04 am
    Since 1978, China has engaged in an unprecedented and wildly successful experiment, moving gradually from a command economy to one based on markets; in small steps transforming a system where administrators controlled the goods that were produced to one where prices allocate resources. There were surely miscalculations along the way. But, even big blunders could largely be concealed. Until now!What has changed in recent months? The day has come for China to become more closely integrated into the global financial system, and this has a number of implications. The most important is that as…
  • Open Letter to Senator Rand Paul

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    23 Aug 2015 | 6:43 am
    We read with interest your August 21 Bloomberg View that calls for “a thoughtful congressional discussion of the pros and cons of a more thorough audit” of the Federal Reserve. While we share your desire for effective congressional oversight of the Federal Reserve, we strongly disagree on the best way to do it.In our democracy, Congress must hold the Fed accountable for achieving its economic and financial stability mandate. Congress has wisely delegated circumscribed authority over monetary policy and the lender of last resort function to the Federal Reserve. Doing so is consistent with…
  • Bond market liquidity: should we be worried?

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    17 Aug 2015 | 5:20 am
    Equities are the stars, they are the financial instruments in the headlines. But it is bonds that are the cast and crew. They do the day-to-day work behind the scenes. And, as with any tradable asset, the confidence that prices are fair and that you can sell what you buy is essential.So, when knowledgeable people express concerns that regulatory changes are causing bond markets to malfunction (see, for example, here), it leads us to ask some tough questions. Are these markets somehow impaired? Is enhanced financial regulation to blame? Is this creating risks to the financial system as a…
  • How the Fed will tighten

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    10 Aug 2015 | 4:53 am
    Before the financial crisis, tightening monetary policy was straightforward. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would announce a rise in the target for the federal funds rate in the overnight interbank lending market, and the open market desk would implement it with a small reduction in the quantity of reserves in the banking system.Matters are no longer so simple. The unconventional policies designed first to avert a financial and economic collapse, and then to spur growth and employment, have left the banking system with reserves that are so abundant that it would be impossible to…
  • What should Greece do?

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    3 Aug 2015 | 5:34 am
    Greece faces a stark choice: stay in the euro and implement the policies demanded by its creditors or exit and re-introduce its own national currency. The dimensions of this decision go far beyond economics, affecting Greece’s political and cultural identity for generations. Yet, even in a narrow sense – determining which option will lead to the best economic outcome for Greeks – the decision is complex and fraught with uncertainty.In this post, we aim to clarify how the stay-or-go choice will influence Greek income and growth prospects. Our objective is to examine the principal factors…
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    Republic 3.0

  • America’s most small business friendly states

    Anne Kim
    18 Aug 2015 | 4:41 am
    Rhode Island and Illinois are among the worst states for small business owners, says a new survey, while Texas and New Hampshire are at the top. The post America’s most small business friendly states appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • The not-so-simple politics of inequality and the middle class

    Stephen Rose
    13 Aug 2015 | 4:43 am
    Soaring inequality should be leading to policy and political change. So why hasn’t it? The post The not-so-simple politics of inequality and the middle class appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • Social Security’s budget crisis begins next year

    Phil LaRue
    12 Aug 2015 | 4:37 am
    11 million Americans receiving Social Security disability benefits could face painful cuts as early as 2016. The post Social Security’s budget crisis begins next year appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • Garbage to gas

    Anne Kim
    11 Aug 2015 | 4:50 am
    Landfills and sewage treatment plants are an overlooked source of clean energy - but a boom in biomethane might be coming. The post Garbage to gas appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • Getting child care off the “mommy track”

    Anne Kim
    7 Aug 2015 | 1:00 pm
    We may finally see progress on child care – if it can break from its pigeonhole as a “women’s issue.” The post Getting child care off the “mommy track” appeared first on Republic 3.0.
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    Principles of Economics and Business

  • Canada's Economy At a Glance [Infographic]

    29 Aug 2015 | 6:15 am
    We live in a globalized world with an increasingly complex economic system. Hence, it has become more and more important for people to know what is going on around them. However, finding and processing the relevant information to do just that has become more difficult as well, due to the increased complexity and information overload. In an attempt to tackle this issue, we have been working on a series of infographics that illustrate the most important facts and figures about the economies of various countries all over the world. The next infographic shows Canada's…
  • UK Economy At a Glance [Infographic]

    7 Aug 2015 | 4:04 am
    As you may know, we have recently started working on a series of infographics that illustrate the most important facts and figures about the economies of various countries all over the world (see also: US Economy At a Glance). The idea behind this is to provide easy access to relevant information in an increasingly complex global economic system. The second infographic shows the UK economy at a glance. The United Kingdom is the third largest economy in Europe (after Germany and France). It is considered a leading trading power and financial center. Services, in particular…
  • US Economy at a Glance [Infographic]

    12 Jul 2015 | 8:29 am
    We live in a globalized world where virtually all countries interact with each other. As a result the economy has become increasingly complex. Despite this (or perhaps just because of it), it is important to know what is going on in the world around you. After all, well-informed citizens make better decisions. However, being an informed citizen is easier said than done these days. We are confronted with so much information through the media and the internet that finding and processing relevant information has become quite a challenge. In other words, we face an information overload.In…
  • What Type of Entrepreneur Are You?

    30 Jun 2015 | 6:17 am
    There is no such thing as the stereotypical entrepreneur. Even though there are some traits that most entrepreneurs may have in common (e.g. persistence, dedication), we can find a wide variety of different personality types among them. To provide a simple overview we will try to classify these types into several groups. This will also allow you to find out what kind of entrepreneur you are.Now, to make this distinction we will need two dimensions. The first one is whether or not entrepreneurs are trying to predict the future. This is important because it significantly affects their…
  • How to Become a Successful Entrepreneur [Infographic]

    16 Jun 2015 | 12:40 am
    Starting your own business is a tough job. There are thousands of new companies founded every year all around the world, but most of them fail within the first five years of operation. However, for the few ventures that actually make it, the upside potential is virtually unlimited. The latest research on entrepreneurship (see also: Entrepreneurial Method) shows that the success of a venture depends on much more than just its business case. Hence, if you want to start your own business, you have to know what it takes to be successful and how you can increase your chances.With this in mind…
 
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    Innovative Advisory Group

  • The Stock Market Crash 2015 – 9 Stock Market Tips to Help You Sleep at Night

    Kirk Chisholm
    27 Aug 2015 | 10:20 am
    The Stock Market Crash 2015 – 9 Stock Market Tips to Help You Sleep at Night   “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful” -Warren Buffett Stock Market Crash 2015 - Should you be scared? 2015 has been an interesting year for stock investors. 2015 started out with the S&P 500 opening at 2058.9. From there the index has fluctuated between +3.8% and -4.1%. When investors are accustomed to getting 6 years in a row of positive gains, it is hard to imagine what a down year looks like. In the past week the S&P 500…
  • Inflation Monitor – August 2015

    Kirk Chisholm
    19 Aug 2015 | 7:45 am
    Inflation Monitor – August 2015 Inflation Monitor Summary - Composite Ranking   * The Inflation Equilibrium is a quick summary for the whole data series of the inflation monitor. If you don't like statistics, this is the chart for you.   Inflation Monitor - August 2015 - Introduction The lazy days of summer are almost over. As the summer ends, the Wall Street traders and money mangers will also be going back to work. If you looked at a chart of the S&P 500 without the dates, you would not be able to tell which days were summer days and which were not. It looks like…
  • 10 Top Alternative Investments You Probably Have Never Heard of

    Kirk Chisholm
    10 Aug 2015 | 7:17 am
    10 Top Alternative Investments You Probably Have Never Heard of     “Curiosity about life in all of its aspects, I think, is still the secret of great creative people” – Leo Burnett Most people are familiar with the stock market. There are TV stations which have the stock market and stock market related information on 24 hours every day. It is hard to escape it. When the stock market crashes, it makes the headlines in every newspaper, news station, and media outlet. When it reaches all time highs, it is on every magazine cover, even the shoeshine boys are talking about it. But…
  • 10 self directed IRA tips to help real estate investors maximize profits

    Kirk Chisholm
    30 Jul 2015 | 7:20 am
    10 self directed IRA tips to help real estate investors maximize profits     “Self Directed IRAs are one of the best laws the US government has ever passed” Can I invest in real estate with my Self-Directed IRA? “Self Directed IRAs are one of the best laws the US government has ever passed”, an investor once told me. It is hard to argue that point. In 1974, congress passed the Employee Retirement Income Security Act, often referred to as ERISA, enabling US taxpayers to save money for their retirement in a tax deferred manner. The best part of this program (outside of the…
  • Inflation Monitor – July 2015

    Kirk Chisholm
    23 Jul 2015 | 7:05 am
    Inflation Monitor – July 2015 Inflation Monitor Summary - Composite Ranking * The Inflation Equilibrium is a quick summary for the whole data series of the inflation monitor. If you don't like statistics, this is the chart for you.   Inflation Monitor - July 2015 - Introduction I hope you enjoyed your Independence Day. While Greece may not have the same appreciation of our holiday, they had one of their own... A Bank holiday. While the Greek Crisis in Europe seems to be solved??? The greater problem persists. The Greek people voted a resounding "NO" on the terms and the Greek…
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    Hoosier Econ

  • How Many School Districts Are in America?

    Hoosier Econ
    1 Sep 2015 | 11:57 am
    America has a lot of people. With that comes the obligation of educating millions of children. School districts exist but do you know how many? The 2012 United States “Census of Governments” answered the question: 12,884 H/T Sunlight Foundation
  • Men Still Working Longer Daily Then Women

    Hoosier Econ
    31 Aug 2015 | 12:41 pm
    StatisticBrain.com posted a breakdown titled “Daily Activity Statistics“. Good read on various activities done by men and women. I suggest a look at it by clicking the title above. Here’s one pertaining to work:
  • Where the Federal Government Gets Tax Revenue From

    Hoosier Econ
    30 Aug 2015 | 7:12 am
    Via Peter G. Peterson Foundation The federal government collects revenue from a variety of sources. The largest source is taxes on individuals’ income and payroll taxes, which together make up four-fifths of federal revenue. Individual income taxes are assessed against wage income and are progressive: that is, the tax rate someone pays increases as their […]
  • Illinois Is An Example of What is Coming For Many States

    Hoosier Econ
    29 Aug 2015 | 6:45 am
    For the last few years, many in the economic world have been cynical of states like Illinois, California and others for how bad their government books are when it comes to finances. That time is over and now they must be looked at for examples of what is about to happen. This post is not to […]
  • POLL: How Much Do You or Your Family Spend Monthly on Groceries?

    Hoosier Econ
    27 Aug 2015 | 10:18 am
    I am conducting a very broad snapshot of what consumers are spending for groceries on a monthly basis. I appreciate your answer in helping me collect data and compare it to past data. I will write on the results in a future post. Thanks in advance for your help on this.
 
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    EKOINGGAS

  • Still plenty of room to grow in animal feed industry

    8 Aug 2015 | 6:52 am
        The Indonesian Feed Millers Association (GPMT) expect sales of animal feed in 2015 to increase by 12 percent year-on-year (yoy) to 16.8 million tons from 15 million ton last year. The reason behind this is an ongoing positive trend in Indonesian's meat consumption. According to GPMT, meat consumption per capita of meat is still relatively low at only 8 kilograms per capita per year. This is less than the meat consumption in other Asean countries, such as Philippines at 9 kg per capita per year, Thailand at 14 per capita per year especially Malaysia at 34 kg per capita per…
  • Future bright for RI poultry firms

    21 Jul 2015 | 9:45 pm
        Indonesia's poultry companies will enjoy a more favorable business environment this year with lower commodity prices and the lifting of Japan's ban on processed-chicken import from Indonesia, according to analysts as reported by the Jakarta Post.    Bahana Securities analyst Michael . Setjoadi said that lower corn and soybean price would help offset the adverse impact of rupiah depreciation for the sector, in which 80 percent of costs of goods sold (COGS) are imported. US soybeans have lost 7.3 percent in two weeks, the biggest decline since July, while corn…
  • Indonesia sets sights on more Asian buyers

    15 Jul 2015 | 3:40 am
         Indonesia poultry suppliers are week s away from making their exports of processed chicken to Japan in a decade, an endorsement of quality that will boost the country's push into a regional market dominated by Thailand.     That is good news for global commodities giant Cargill Inc and Indonesian food group, PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk, which have announced plans to invest several hundred million dollars in Indonessian's poultry sector, aiming to tap a chunk of Asia's export potential, as well as strong domectic growth.    …
  • Jakarta to invest in cattle breeding in NTT

    13 Jul 2015 | 8:12 pm
        The Jakarta administration has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) admistration to invest in cattle breeding in NTT to meet the city's demand of 150 tons of beef per day.    The MoU was signed by Jakarta Governor Basuki "Ahok" Tjahaja Purnama and NTT Governor Frans Lebu Raya in Kupang and witnessed by President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo lately.    According to Maritime Affairs and Agriculture Agency head Darjamuni, the city will provide prime cattle for cattle breeders in NTT and develop quarantine facilities…
  • Cargill Sees $1 bln Investment in Indonesia; Eyes Poultry Sector

    12 Jul 2015 | 11:01 pm
         Cargill Inc. may invest $1 billion in Indonesia over the next three to four years, with a focus on entering the poultry sector and expanding it's palm business in the Southeast Asian country, the CEO of the top global commodities trader said on Tuesday.    Earlier this year, Indonesia entered talks to resume poultry shipments to Japan after a 10-year stoppage, with any agreement likely to be worth an estimated initial $200 million per year. These government discussions followed soon after a food safety scandal involving Chinese meat…
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    Let's Talk Development - A blog hosted by the World Bank's Chief Economist

  • Would you lose weight if we paid you?

    Arndt Reichert
    31 Aug 2015 | 8:24 am
    If you were given a small reward every time you worked out, would you be more inclined to stick to a permanent exercise regimen? How much would that incentive have to be? Would regular exercise be beneficial for your health and ultimately to the greater society? Monetary incentives are being increasingly introduced by policymakers into all kinds of interventions across a wide range of sectors including health, education, and the environment. The rationale for this trend is that we often make choices without accounting for how these choices may affect other people (and sometimes even…
  • The impact of low oil prices in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Gerard Kambou
    28 Aug 2015 | 6:15 am
    Growth picked up in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2014, after moderating in 2013, but remained weaker than during the pre-crisis years. It softened around the turn of the year owing to headwinds from the plunge in the price of oil. Sub-Saharan Africa’s oil exporters, which account for nearly half of the region’s aggregate output, have been hit hard by the sharp decline in the price of oil. From June 2014 to January 2015, oil prices fell by nearly 50 percent, and have remained low despite the recent uptick.          
  • Can a picture from space help to measure poverty in a Guatemalan village?

    Andrea Coppola
    25 Aug 2015 | 1:40 pm
    Also available in: Español John Grunsfeld, former NASA Chief Scientist and veteran of five Space Shuttle flights, had several chances to look down at Earth, and noticed how poverty can be recognized from far away. Unlike richer countries, typically lined in green, poorer countries with less access to water are a shocking brown color. During the night, wealthier countries light up the sky whereas nations with less widespread electricity look dim.   Dr. Grunsfeld’s observation might have important implications. Pictures from satellites could become a tool to help identifying where…
  • The shadow over commodity exporting low-income countries (LICs)

    Tehmina S. Khan
    21 Aug 2015 | 8:09 am
    Low-income countries facing a hangover as the commodity cycle turns Until recently, confidence and expectations for low income countries (LICs) were soaring – with good reason. After all, for most of the 2000s, many LICs managed to consistently post growth rates that were much higher than in the previous three decades (Figure 1). For metal and mineral exporting LICs – these account for almost two-thirds of LICs[1] – robust global demand for copper, iron ore, oil and high commodity prices filled government coffers and lifted investment and exports. This resulted in a broad based…
  • Despite low commodity prices, growth prospects in low-income countries remain robust

    Gerard Kambou
    17 Aug 2015 | 11:15 am
    Large agricultural sectors, remittances, and public investment have cushioned the impact of sharply weaker terms of trade in commodity-exporting low-income countries (LICs). Growth in LICs was flat in 2014, but is expected to pick up in 2015 and remain robust during 2016–17.  Declining commodity prices, however, are likely to increasingly put pressure on fiscal and current account balances of LICs that rely heavily on exports of energy and metals. Many commodity-exporting LICs have limited buffers to absorb this deterioration.
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    Economics and Development

  • Software as an Institution

    Anton Tarasenko
    2 Sep 2015 | 6:54 am
    The rules of the game, known to economists as institutions and to managers as corporate culture, usually entail inoperable ideas. That is, any country or business has some rules, but these rules coincide neither with optimal rules nor with leadership vision. Maybe with an exception of the top decile of performers or something like this. This inoperability isn’t surprising since the rules have obscure formulations. Douglass North and his devotees did best at narrowing what “good institutions” are, but with North’s bird-eye view, you also need an ant-eye view on how…
  • Russia Growth Diagnostics: Conclusions

    Anton Tarasenko
    24 Aug 2015 | 9:52 am
    All posts of the Russian growth diagnostics series: Contents Getting Started Introduction to Russia Finance Infrastructure and Human Capital Uncertainty Taxes and Laws Market Structure and Competition The Hausmann–Rodrik–Velasco framework that I use throughout the series is explained in the first post. The replication files are available on GitHub. Conclusions Four constraints require attention. The table below ranks each of them on a scale from 1 to 5 according to: Impact How large is the possible impact of changes in this constraint on economic growth? How far is the current situation…
  • Russia Growth Diagnostics (7): Market Structure and Competition

    Anton Tarasenko
    22 Aug 2015 | 8:05 am
    < Part 6: Taxation and Laws Thirty years ago the entire Russian economy was managed by the state. Some estimates of the current state presence reach 50% of GDP, and this makes the current market structure a likely source of inefficiencies. Let’s see if it is. Industrial Organization Over the last 15 years, Russia transformed several state-owned industries according to a simple rule: take an industry and separate it into a natural monopoly and firms that will compete with each other. After the separation, the state retains control over the natural monopoly and privatizes the…
  • Russia Growth Diagnostics (6): Taxation and Laws

    Anton Tarasenko
    21 Aug 2015 | 9:18 am
    < Part 5: Uncertainty Taxation and law enforcement are a bunch of different factors, whose impact on growth could be described best as “it depends”. So my goal here will be modest. For each issue, I briefly outline the references on topic, discuss the magnitude of a possible impact on growth, and check if this issue is a candidate for a growth constraint. Inflation Despite inflation being an important topic in macro, economic growth theory barely touches inflation at all. For rare examples, see Barro (1995), Bruno and Easterly (1998), IMF (2014). Scarce evidences suggest…
  • Russia Growth Diagnostics (5): Uncertainty

    Anton Tarasenko
    20 Aug 2015 | 6:39 am
    < Part 4: Infrastructure and Human Capital While checking for government failures, I closely follow HRV (2008), who break the failures into three groups: ex ante risks, taxation, and law enforcement. Let’s start from the first group. Uncertainty and Investments Ex ante risks refer to the volatility of expected returns to economic activity. Low expectations reduce investments and growth slows down. Here I discuss only the risks associated with government actions (or inactions). We should distinguish these risks from the risks arising in particular economic activities. Acemoglu and…
 
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