Economics

  • Most Topular Stories

  • Zero Rates Through Late 2014? PUHLEASE!

    The Big Picture
    Bill King
    27 Jan 2012 | 1:10 pm
    It is irresponsible for the Fed to state that it will keep rates exceptionally low through at least late 2014. No one, least of all the misguided seers at the Fed, knows what inflation, the economy, the dollar, etc. will be in coming quarters, let alone two years. Please recall that we mockingly said that the Fed would in the future announce that it would keep rates exceptionally low through 2014, then through 2015, then through infinity. The reason for the ‘late 2014’ verbiage is the Fed wanted to throw a bone to The Street because it did not announce the much-desired QE 3.0. Stocks and…

  • The Role of Austerity

    Economix
    By DAVID LEONHARDT
    27 Jan 2012 | 3:10 pm
    Government spending helped mitigate the recession, but its decline has been a significant drag on growth for more than a year now.

  • Why Iran Won't Back Down and When Might War Between the U.S. and Iran Occur?

    EconomicPolicyJournal.com
    27 Jan 2012 | 3:01 pm
    by Michael S. Rozeff Which state, the U.S. or Iran, more likely wants a war with the other? It's the side that thinks it benefits from such a war. That side is the U.S. If this war begins, it will be entirely because the U.S. wants it and has decided that the time is right to instigate it or elicit actions from Iran that provide excuses for instigating it. Any U.S.-Iran war will be entirely the

  • 8 Amazing Artisan Videos Everyone Should Watch

    CARPE DIEM
    27 Jan 2012 | 5:11 pm
    From the MakeUseOf.com website:"Have you ever watched a masterful expert perform their work with such skill and passion that you had no choice but to watch and admire in awe? As I scour the Internet from day to day, I run into videos of these masters every once in a while. And every time, I can’t help but stare in wonder and respect.An artisan is a craftsman who is a master of their field. Here is a collection of some of the most interesting and mesmerizing videos of artisans who take immense pride in their work and strive to be the best at what they do (watch the master tea server…

  • HOT: Pentagon to Send Floating Base to Mideast for Use by Commandos

    EconomicPolicyJournal.com
    27 Jan 2012 | 6:51 pm
    The U.S. government is definitely looking for trouble. WaPo reports that the Pentagon is rushing to send a large floating base for commando teams to the Middle East. In response to requests from the U.S. Central Command, which oversees military operations in the Middle East, the Navy is converting an aging warship it had planned to decommission into a makeshift staging base for the commandos.
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    Real Time Economics

  • Number of the Week: Dismal New Home Sales in 2011

    Phil Izzo
    28 Jan 2012 | 4:00 am
    2.5: The number of new single-family homes sold per 1,000 households. New home sales in 2011 hit their lowest level on record, but it’s difficult to express just how bad that is. Just 302,000 new single-family homes were sold last year, according to Commerce Department data released on Thursday. That was the smallest number of new houses sold going back to 1963 when data were first collected. Adjusting for population the figure looks even worse. There were about two and a half new homes sold for every 1,000 households in the U.S. last year. Prior to 2008 that number had fallen below…

  • Fed Inflation Hawks Have More Influence Outside Than In

    Eric Morath
    27 Jan 2012 | 2:11 pm
    The Federal Reserve’s hawks appear to have more influence outside the central bank’s policy meetings than they do inside. Public comments by three of the Fed’s so-called inflation hawks—the officials who tend to worry more that easy money policies may fuel price increases—triggered bigger market reactions last year than those of their more dovish chairman, Ben Bernanke, according to the latest annual analysis by Macroeconomic Advisers LLC. Indeed, hawks took seven of the top 10 slots in Macroeconomic Advisers’ ranking of “Who Moved Markets” among Fed officials. The firm…

  • Richmond Fed’s Lacker Explains His Dissent

    Jeffrey Sparshott
    27 Jan 2012 | 11:59 am
    Richmond Fed President Lacker, explaining an earlier dissent, said he doesn't believe economic conditions are likely to warrant an exceptionally low federal funds rate through late 2014.

  • Outsized Impact of Inventories on GDP Growth

    Kathleen Madigan
    27 Jan 2012 | 11:30 am
    For U.S. gross domestic product growth, the disappointment devil is in the details. Real GDP grew at a solid 2.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter, slightly missing 3.0% expectations, but still the best gain since second quarter of 2010. The report, however, was a big disappointment for investors and the outlook because of what hid underneath. The mix of growth suggests weakness this quarter and perhaps beyond. That’s because the bulk of GDP growth came from the inventory sector, which accounted for almost two percentage points of the top-line expansion. The amount of inventory added…

  • Fed’s Dudley: Policy Actions Essential for Recovery

    Anusha Shrivastava
    27 Jan 2012 | 9:40 am
    Policy actions in housing, fiscal policy and structural adjustment of the U.S. economy are essential to achieve economic recovery, which remains sluggish by historical standards, said a top Federal Reserve official Friday.
 
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    naked capitalism

  • Links 01/28/12

    Lambert Strether
    28 Jan 2012 | 4:25 am
    Dutch Zoo Fits Elephant With Contact Lens (furzy mouse) Der Spiegel. Government censorship makes pandemic research harder, won’t hinder bad actors Nature. What could go wrong? Pentagon to position floating base in Persian Gulf Pravda. What could go wrong? Fifteen minutes out of Damascus in the burbs, tension everywhere RT photo essay. Flush With Oil From Alberta, Canada Prepares For Inevitable U.S. Invasion (Valissa) Smew. Tim Hortons imposes sharia law! Also, too, their water. Irishman makes “billion-euro home” of shredded notes Reuters. “I wanted to create something…

  • Lanny Breuer, Task Force Leader, Doesn’t Bother Showing Up For Mortgage Fraud Press Conference

    Matt Stoller
    27 Jan 2012 | 5:06 pm
    By Matt Stoller, the former Senior Policy Advisor to Rep. Alan Grayson and a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute. You can reach him at stoller (at) gmail.com or follow him on Twitter at @matthewstoller. Eric Holder has come out with details on the task force.  But first, let’s look at a smoke signal.  At this press conference announcing the task force, Holder had to apologize for Lanny Breuer, Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division, one of the key leaders of the investigative unit. Breuer, you see, couldn’t make it to the press conference because he was…

  • Can the Schneiderman-Infused Financial Fraud Unit Prosecute Vikram Pandit?

    Matt Stoller
    27 Jan 2012 | 3:37 pm
    By Matt Stoller, the former Senior Policy Advisor to Rep. Alan Grayson and a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute. You can reach him at stoller (at) gmail.com or follow him on Twitter at@matthewstoller. There are two underlying structural problems with the new(ish) Federal task force on financial fraud.  One, it is the policy of the administration to protect the banking system’s basic architecture, which means the compensation structure and the existing personnel who run these large institutions.  Any real investigation into the financial collapse will inevitably lead to the collapse of…

  • Michael Hudson: Banks Weren’t Meant to Be Like This

    Yves Smith
    27 Jan 2012 | 5:36 am
    By Michael Hudson, a research professor of Economics at University of Missouri, Kansas City and a research associate at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College A shorter version of this article in German will run in the Frankfurter Algemeine Zeitung on January 28. 2012 The inherently symbiotic relationship between banks and governments recently has been reversed. In medieval times, wealthy bankers lent to kings and princes as their major customers. But now it is the banks that are needy, relying on governments for funding – capped by the post-2008 bailouts to save them from going…

  • “Mortgage Fraud is a Top Priority for This Administration”

    Matt Stoller
    27 Jan 2012 | 5:01 am
    By Matt Stoller, the former Senior Policy Advisor to Rep. Alan Grayson and a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute. You can reach him at stoller (at) gmail.com or follow him on Twitter at @matthewstoller. Since the President is now establishing yet another committee to look into the mortgage fraud crisis, I figured it would be useful to look into the history of the Obama and Bush administrations’ approaches to the problem of vast financial fraud.  As with most Obama government activities, it’s largely a story of policy continuity with the last administration, though the boom-bust…
 
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    Alpha.Sources

  • First Act of Greek Default Proceedings Drawing to a Close

    CV
    23 Jan 2012 | 3:00 am
    Global stock markets are up about 10% since the beginning of the year, volatility has collapsed, US economic data continue to defy even the mild slowdown proponents and the ECB seems to have backstopped the European banking system.  Yes, my dear reader. This is how quickly you move away from the apocalyptic abyss and back to normal. My base case is that we are close to excess complacency in equity markets and a sell off is overdue, but it is exactly also under these circumstances (where smart money start to hedge) that the market may deliver one final run up to get everyone and the…

  • Banking follies in the eurozone

    CV
    18 Jan 2012 | 2:00 am
    Edward Hugh has a brilliant analysis of recent events in the eurozone and especially how banks are leveraging the liquidity provided by the ECB to "cleanse" their balance sheet of bad assets and essentially exchanging these for freshly minted euro deposits at the ECB. I think we should be very clear what is going on here; this is essentially a covert recapitalisation of the European banking system and the ECB is in every sense of the word acting as a lender of last resort.  Here is the relevant part;   Another area where the transfer of liquidity doesn’t show up as a change in…

  • ECB/Fed Support for the European Banking System - 750 billion USD, and counting ...

    CV
    5 Jan 2012 | 1:00 am
    One point that I have been shouting from the proverbial roof tops in my research, to partners and colleagues is that 2012 may well be the year when all major central banks will be conducting both conventional and unconventional monetary easing at the same time. I think this is a very strong testament not only to the severity of the ongoing debt crisis in the developed world, but also to the propensity of central banks to choose inflation as the  desired route to recovery. We need not initially discuss whether they are deploying the proper set of policies or even whether such policies…

  • Merry Christmas to all Alpha Sources' Readers

    CV
    24 Dec 2011 | 3:12 am
      Hello everyone. Here is to a Merry Christmas and a great new year. As you might have noticed, posting has been a little less frequent this year, but such is life when work comes in the way. We are working on some very interesting initiatives at Variant Perception regarding blogs and online presence which will allow me to post more content here.  For now though, have a great Christmas weekend.     best   Claus

  • New Macroeconomic Resource - Variant Perception's Trusted Sources

    CV
    13 Dec 2011 | 10:55 am
    I normally do not mix business and pleasure but in this case they are such a close match that I think an exception is warranted. The small independent macro research firm I work for is consequently in the process of restructuring its website and is opening up its Trusted Sources which was previously restricted to clients. VP Trusted Sources is a collection of content providers and their content that we deem to offer high quality and value adding financial and macroeconomic analysis worthy our own, investors' and other researchers' time.  Obviously, skilled and…
 
 
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    The American Prospect

  • Why Gingrich Lost His Groove

    27 Jan 2012 | 4:53 pm
    Has Newt Gingrich floundered in Florida because he doesn’t understand his own appeal to GOP voters? In South Carolina, the former house speaker hit upon an anti-elite message that goes straight to the heart of the Tea Party—and the political moment. It was nothing new: the kind of silent-majority red meat that white conservatives have eagerly consumed since the days of Wallace and Nixon (not to mention Bush and Palin). But it was a message tuned to a time when Americans are increasingly cognizant of wealth disparities, and aware that elites have cornered the market on economic…

  • Couture's Chinese Culture Shock

    27 Jan 2012 | 3:48 pm
    We’re witnessing a remarkable shift in China’s relationship to global fashion: once “the world’s factory,” in Asian American fashion scholar Thuy Linh N. Tu’s words, China is now poised to be the world’s mall. While China remains a poor country with an average annual per capita consumption of $2,500 (in contrast, the U.S. per capita average is $30,000), China’s rising number of millionaires and the Internet-enabled diffusion of Western fashion consumer culture are quickly transforming the communist nation into what The New York Times has called “The Shoppers’ Republic of…

  • Missing the Arab Awakening

    27 Jan 2012 | 2:29 pm
    On January 25, Egyptians marked the one-year anniversary of their revolution with another massive demonstration in Tahrir Square, the epicenter of what has become known variously as the Arab Spring, the Arab Awakening, or the Arab Uprising. Whatever term one chooses for the events that began with the self-immolation of a Tunisian fruit vendor in December 2010 and soon swept through Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and Syria—the last year has marked a decisive shift in the modern history of the Arab world. Though the situations in different countries have and will continue to take different paths, the…

  • State of Disunion

    27 Jan 2012 | 2:23 pm
    Questions, comments, suggestions? Send us an e-mail at voxandfriends@prospect.org!

  • Gay Marriage Moving Forward Around the Country

    27 Jan 2012 | 12:22 pm
    It's been a good week for gay-rights advocates. Washington state gained the crucial 25th vote needed to pass same-sex marriage. The news prompted headlines around the country, but it was hardly the only place where such legislation moved forward.  In Maryland, Governor Martin O'Malley is once again pushing a gay marriage bill. Last year's bill stalled, but this time around, lawmakers are making broader exemptions for religious institutions. O'Malley and other advocates are also trying to drum up public support for the bill, which if passed will likely be put to a public vote this fall.
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    Robert Reich

  • Why No Responsible Democrat Should Want Newt Gingrich to Get the GOP Nomination

    26 Jan 2012 | 12:18 pm
    Republicans are worried sick about Newt Gingrich’s ascendance, while Democrats are tickled pink. Yet no responsible Democrat should be pleased at the prospect that Gingrich could get the GOP nomination. The future of America is too important to accept even a small risk of a Gingrich presidency. The Republican worry is understandable. “The possibility of Newt Gingrich being our nominee against Barack Obama I think is essentially handling the election over to Obama,” says former Minnesota Governor Tom Pawlenty, a leading GOP conservative. “I think that’s shared by a lot of folks in…

  • Best wishes from Saul Alinsky, radical left-wingers, and people...

    24 Jan 2012 | 10:05 am
    Best wishes from Saul Alinsky, radical left-wingers, and people who don’t like the classical America.

  • Who is Sheldon Adelson and What Has Newt Promised Him?

    24 Jan 2012 | 9:58 am
    Sheldon Adelson, the billionaire casino owner, is now the poster boy for what’s terribly wrong with our campaign-finance system. Adelson, you may recall, had, before the South Carolina Republican primary, donated $5 million to the pro-Gingrich Super Pac “Winning Our Future” – giving Newt a pile of money for negative advertising against Mitt Romney in South Carolina. Adelson has done it again. He and his wife Marian have cut another $5 million check for Gingrich to go negative on Romney in Florida. The money won’t go as far as it did in South Carolina – TV ads cost a lot more in…

  • The State of Our Disunion: A Globalizing Private Sector, A Government Overwhelmed by Corporate Money

    23 Jan 2012 | 1:59 pm
    Who should have the primary strategic responsibility for making American workers globally competitive – the private sector or government? This will be a defining issue in the 2012 campaign. In his State of the Union address, President Obama will make the case that government has a vital role. His Republican rivals disagree. Mitt Romney charges the President is putting “free enterprise on trial,” while Newt Gingrich merely fulminates about “liberal elites.” American business won’t and can’t lead the way to more and better jobs in the United States. First, the private sector is…

  • Amend2012

    19 Jan 2012 | 12:31 pm
    Amend2012
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    Brad DeLong

  • Liveblogging World War II: January 28, 1942

    J. Bradford DeLong
    28 Jan 2012 | 4:08 am
    MY DAY by Eleanor Roosevelt: In spite of rather gray looking skies, I left Washington yesterday afternoon, hoping to land in New York about 6:45. But we came down at an unfamiliar airport, and I found we were in Philadelphia and the flight was cancelled. I drove to the station and caught a train almost immediately and reached my house at 9:15, so I might just as well have taken a 5:00 o'clock train out of Washington. I talked to some Army boys on the way over, who had just had their orders. One youngster in a sailor's uniform sat just a few seats ahead of me. When he turned around, I felt…

  • Twitterstorm delong: January 27, 2012

    J. Bradford DeLong
    27 Jan 2012 | 9:42 pm
    delong J. Bradford DeLong Carried Interest Tax Break Exposes Mitt Romney Electability Myth blogs.investors.com/capitalhill/in… 7 minutes ago paullewismoney Paul Lewis Always thought it strange that you motivate rich by throwing money at them, but you motivate poor by taking money away. #hester 19 hours ago Retweeted by delong davidfrum davidfrum Associates confirm to WashPo what was already obvious: Ron Paul has lied & lied about his racist newsletters http://tinyurl.com/8xc7fqg 11 hours ago Retweeted by delong delong J. Bradford DeLong The Debate on Private Equity in 1989, Peter Róna…

  • Econ 1: Spring 2012: U.C. Berkeley: Problem Set 2

    J. Bradford DeLong
    27 Jan 2012 | 8:05 pm
    Due at the start of section following the Monday, February 6 lecture: Problem Set 2 Problem Set 2: Demand and Supply; Market Equilibrium J. Bradford DeLong/Lanwei Yang/etc. Econ 1: Spring 2012: U.C. Berkeley Due at first section after Monday, February 6 lecture Suppose that there are four people in the economy who demand yoga lessons: Kautilya (a government economist) with an income of $1000/week, Thasuka Witko (a herder and politician) with an income of $500/week, Buffy Summers (a student at U.C. Sunnydale) with an income of $300/week, and Sappho (a poet) with an income of $600/week.

  • Econ 1: U.C. Berkeley: Spring 2012: I Am Sick of Typing in the Long URL for the bspace Website...

    J. Bradford DeLong
    27 Jan 2012 | 3:16 pm
    …so here is a shorter one: http://tinyurl.com/delong-Econ1Sp12

  • What Is the Most Popular TV Show Among 18 Year Old Californians Today?

    J. Bradford DeLong
    27 Jan 2012 | 2:14 pm
    I need examples for my Econ 1 class. Dharma and Greg, Buffy, and Star Trek will no longer cut it...
 
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    cool global BIZ

  • Football's San Francisco 49ers Reflect Winning Workplace Culture and Management

    Edward Iwata
    23 Jan 2012 | 2:01 pm
    "Drills" by jpeepz (Jay Peeples), under a Creative Commons license on flickr. Peeples is a photographer and writer in Silicon Valley, U.S.A. HOW DO YOU handle a soul-crushing defeat if normally-reliable colleagues fall short? Strengthen the fortress and build up your teammates, don't divide and conquer. After the National Football League's San Francisco 49ers fell short of reaching the Super Bowl, losing to the New York Giants on Sunday, they did not blame the young player whose turnovers played a role in the loss. They rallied around him, and rightfully pointed out that the whole team missed…

  • McKinsey Calls for Resource Revolution As Global Demand Soars for Food, Water, Energy

    Edward Iwata
    17 Jan 2012 | 2:01 pm
    "Sustainable energy from the source" by Frits Ahlefeldt-Laurvig, under a Creative Commons license on flickr. Ahlefeldt-Laurvig is an illustrator in Copenhagen, Denmark, at HikingArtist.com. NEXT TO GLOBAL warming, perhaps the most critical and urgent issue of the day? The supply and demand for basic resources as the world population -- a billion here, a billion there -- continues to explode. In a recent study, the McKinsey Global Institute urges companies and governments to launch a "resource revolution" to improve resource productivity, and to meet the vast global need for energy, materials,…

  • Are You a Manager on a Mission, Like Denver Broncos Quarterback Tim Tebow?

    Edward Iwata
    9 Jan 2012 | 2:01 pm
    HIS IN-YOUR-FACE spirituality may turn off some folks. His football passes can be wild and erratic. And his power scrambling surely will shorten his promising career. But Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow boasts those magical qualities and intangibles that every executive and manager wishes he had: Fire and spirit. Courage and credibility. Leadership mojo. You can measure the visible traits of people all day. You can write performance reviews late into the night. But those assessments exist only on paper, only by the numbers -- and only in your biased and fallible judgment. As critics are…

  • Global Economy in 2012: Ho, Ho, Ho, Nobody Knows. Meanwhile, Happy Holidays

    Edward Iwata
    22 Dec 2011 | 2:01 pm
    "The Christmas Carolers" by deltaMike (Mike Renlund), under a Creative Commons license on flickr. HO, HO, HO, nobody knows, not even jolly ol' Saint Nick! Holiday shopping up. Unemployment down. Euro debt rising. World economy stalling. You pick: 2% or 3% growth? Recession or depression? Read the latest economic reports, and haul out the Ouiji board. Or sing some holiday tunes, like the colorful Christmas carolers here. Meanwhile, happy holidays. Associated Press via Google News, "Holiday shopping season is strong" by Anne D'Innocenzio. CNET, "Online holiday spending hit all-time high last…

  • Still Happy Holidays for AT&T After T-Mobile Mega-Deal Falls Through?

    Edward Iwata
    20 Dec 2011 | 2:01 pm
    SANTA HOPES THAT AT&T still has the holiday spirit, after its $39 billion bid for Deutsch Telekom's T-Mobile just collapsed amid opposition from the U.S. Justice Department, the Federal Communications Commission and others. Will AT&T bandage its wounds and circle back to T-Mobile or other telecom firms with a more bite-sized acquisition attempt, maybe after the 2012 presidential election? I still wouldn't count them out, after predicting earlier that they would push through the T-Mobile mega-deal. Corporations on the prowl never rest. Meanwhile, a host of critics -- telecom rivals such as…
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    Calculated Risk

  • Government to triple HAMP payments for principal reductions

    CalculatedRisk
    27 Jan 2012 | 8:03 pm
    From Jon Prior at HousingWire: Treasury to pay investors triple for HAMP principal reductionsThe Treasury Department will triple payments to mortgage investors for reducing borrower principal through an expanded Home Affordable Modification Program announced Friday [CR note: Treasury will pay incentives ranging from .18 to .63 cents on the dollar - depending on the change in LTV] Officials announced several critical changes to HAMP, including an enrollment extension to Dec. 31, 2013, from its original expiration date at the end of this year. The Treasury will also require servicers to factor…

  • Bank Failure #6 & 7: Tennessee and Minnesota

    CalculatedRisk
    27 Jan 2012 | 5:10 pm
    Knoxville Bank K.O. Forest Lake Friday failure A quickening pace. by Soylent Green is People From the FDIC: First Resource Bank, Savage, Minnesota, Assumes All of the Deposits of Patriot Bank Minnesota, Forest Lake, Minnesota As of September 30, 2011, Patriot Bank Minnesota had approximately $111.3 million in total assets and $108.3 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $32.6 million. ... Patriot Bank Minnesota is the sixth FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Minnesota. The last…

  • Bank Failures #4 and 5 in 2012: Florida and Tennessee

    CalculatedRisk
    27 Jan 2012 | 4:13 pm
    Federal Giants Sack Panther and Titan banks A Patriots chore by Soylent Green is People From the FDIC: CenterState Bank of Florida, National Association, Winter Haven, Florida, Assumes All of the Deposits of First Guaranty Bank and Trust Company of Jacksonville, Jacksonville, FloridaAs of September 30, 2011, First Guaranty Bank and Trust Company of Jacksonville had approximately $377.9 million in total assets and $349.5 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $82.0 million. ... First Guaranty Bank and Trust Company of…

  • LPS: 2010, 2011 Mortgage Originations have record low default rates

    CalculatedRisk
    27 Jan 2012 | 1:46 pm
    From LPS Applied Analytics: LPS' Mortgage Monitor Shows 2010, 2011 Originations Among Best Quality on Record The December Mortgage Monitor report released by Lender Processing Services shows mortgage originations continued their decline from 2011’s September peak, down 10.1 percent from the month before. At the same time, those loans originated over the last two years have proven to be some of the best quality originations on record. ... Looking at judicial vs. non-judicial foreclosure states, LPS found that half of all loans in foreclosure in judicial states have not made a payment in more…

  • Q4 GDP: Residential Investment now making a positive contribution

    CalculatedRisk
    27 Jan 2012 | 10:19 am
    The following graph shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter centered average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy. For the following graph, red is residential, green is equipment and software, and blue is investment in non-residential structures. So the usual pattern - both into and out of recessions is - red, green, blue. The dashed gray line is the…
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    Winter (Economic and Market) Watch

  • Largest Central Banks Now Hold Over 15 Trillion in Fictitious Capital

    Russ Winter
    27 Jan 2012 | 9:52 am
    China’s imports from Japan fell 16.2pc in December. Imports from Taiwan fell 6.2pc.  The strong yen strikes again: Honda decides to build a high-performance hybrid Acura in Ohio – instead of its home nation of Japan. The firm’s continued shift in production to North American capacity signals a wider trend of Japan’s automakers to battle currency-related losses by moving operations. Japan is on life support.  The largest buyers of their debt are now sellers.  Japan Post Holdings holds almost 3 trillion dollars of JGB’s and GPIF, the retirement fund, holds over $1…

  • Pushing Non-Official Holders of Local-Issued European Debt into Subordination

    Russ Winter
    26 Jan 2012 | 9:15 am
    I spotted some interesting commentary on the maturing March 2012 Greek bonds. After buying at 40-45 cents, it seems the hedge funds are trying to unload in a bidless 35-cent market. The ECB has the largest stake, bought at 70 cents. This official holder’s dominance of this market, and refusal so far to  participate in haircuts, is making the whole exercise futile and severely subordinates any potential non-official holder or future buyer of  European sovereign debt. Reuters reports that the ECB is split and confused on this issue. The IMF’s LaGarde says, “If the…

  • Stick it to the Local Issued Bond Holders

    Russ Winter
    23 Jan 2012 | 11:09 pm
    ZeroHedge (ZH) has a long winded but remarkable post on the issue of subordination and the motivation of hedge fund holders of non-local bonds to stick up (called blocking) the process and, in fact, go the legal route on debt defaults. ZH cites historical examples of how successful this approach has been. ZH believes these actors will never agree to a haircut, which helps explain the difficulty of doing a deal. I’ll save you from having to read the whole post. Non-local means issued under UK law. UK law requires certain high participation levels in voluntary restructurings and…

  • The Coming Privatization Scam

    Russ Winter
    9 Jan 2012 | 8:02 am
    All the discourse about deregulation or regulation is a diversion from the real fact that the vehicles to steal keep being put into place. The criminal oligarchs are going to set the stage through the back door while everybody is talking about Dodd-Frank, consumer regulatory side shows, etc. Since the big banks were not busted up, these side shows are nothing more than smoke screens and diversions! How does one “regulate” a trillion dollar bankster?  And is it really necessary to put more regulations on a $100 million banker? Meanwhile, the LTRO exchange debt for assets…

  • Free Access to Actionable Until January 10

    Russ Winter
    3 Jan 2012 | 10:00 am
    I am going to make my Actionable service plus all archives available until January 10th for those interested in seeing what I’ve been working on.  There is an access user name and password that I can provide if you if e mail me (Russ Winter) directly. Simply put “actionable access” in the subject line for the user name and password, to get access the service. Then just click this link for access, or any link to Actionable on the Winter Watch blog.   Then if you like what you see, the subscription information is here to give you permanent access.
 
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    Crooked Timber

  • An atheist temple?

    Chris Bertram
    27 Jan 2012 | 4:53 am
    Any spat between Alain de Botton and Richard Dawkins is one where I’m kind of rooting for both of them to lose. On the other hand, Dawkins has some genuine achievements to his name and has written some pretty decent books, so there’s some compensation when he acts like an arse, whereas in de Botton’s case …. De Botton’s latest plans (h/t Alex): to build a £1m “temple for atheists” among the international banks and medieval church spires of the City of London have sparked a clash between two of Britain’s most prominent non-believers. The…

  • Libya: was it worth it?

    Chris Bertram
    26 Jan 2012 | 6:47 am
    I’m asking the question, because I don’t know, but the signs are extremely worrying. When NATO intervention was first mooted, I wrote a piece here expressing concern that, if the successor government came about thanks to NATO intervention it would lack legitimacy in the eyes of the Libyan people. I’m not sure that I was right about the reasons for that, but the conclusion about the lack of legitimacy itself (much mocked in some quarters) looks to be increasingly vindicated by events. One reason to intervene was to prevent severe human rights violations, including the…

  • Friends Really Don’t Let Friends Publish in Elsevier Journals

    Henry
    25 Jan 2012 | 8:21 pm
    A few years ago, I wrote a post explaining that I was no longer going to referee for, or publish in journals published by Elsevier (and that I was likely only to cite Elsevier published articles with an explicit health warning). This was relatively cheap for me, as I work in a field where Elsevier has little presence (I’ve only had one occasion to turn down refereeing in the intervening period), but I did suggest that other readers might do the same. Now, Tim Gowers has independently had the same idea. Unsurprisingly, famous mathematicians are rather better able to rally support than…

  • How (not) to defend entrenched inequality

    John Quiggin
    24 Jan 2012 | 8:37 pm
    The endless EU vs US debate rolls on, but now with an odd twist. Although the objective facts about economic inequality, immobility and so on are far worse in the US than the EU, the political situation seems more promising. (I’m not talking primarily about electoral politics but about the nature of public debate.)In the EU, the right has succeeded in taking a crisis caused primarily by banks (including the central bank, and bank regulators) and blaming it on government profligacy, which is then being used to push through yet more of the neoliberal policies that caused the crisis. And,…

  • A Modest Proposal for Roe Day

    Tedra Osell
    22 Jan 2012 | 3:37 pm
    I challenge everyone who has commented in the “Do You Trust Women” post and considers themselves pro-choice to donate $2 to Planned Parenthood (or your abortion rights organization of choice) per comment to celebrate Roe Day. That’s $126 for me, and I’ll round up to $130. If you do it, leave a comment saying how much you donated. No checking people’s math, and obviously no one can check to see if you actually did donate; we’re on the honor system here.
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    Dealbreaker

  • Write-Offs: 01.27.12

    Dealbreaker
    27 Jan 2012 | 5:54 pm
    Citi to Cut Bonuses in Investment Bank About 30% [Bloomberg] Fitch Cuts Italian, Spanish Ratings [Bloomberg] Goldman’s Blankfein gets stock from prior award [MarketWatch] EU avoided ‘major, major credit crunch’ [FT] Proposed Mortgage Deal Said to Be Limited to Foreclosures [Bloomberg] Every self-important anonymous jerk who can’t handle rejection is supposedly a “hedge fund manager” [Gawker] Except this guy: Jilted City banker ‘bought crossbows and gun and disguised himself as a doctor to launch deadly attack on lover who spurned him’ [Daily Mail via BI]…

  • How Will Morgan Stanley Be Able To Pay Tech Bankers With A Measly $100mm Facebook IPO Fee?

    Matt Levine
    27 Jan 2012 | 5:45 pm
    I really hope that Facebook is just faking us all out with this whole “we’re IPO’ing on Wednesday” thing that they haven’t said, in part because I have yet to park $100k of the Dealbreaker slush fund/Bloomberg budget in Facebook shares on SharesPost. But just in case they actually do something next week let’s analyze the hell out of everything so we can be proven wrong by the filings. Okay? Okay. One thing to over-analyze is that presumptive lead-left bookrunner Morgan Stanley’s shares did or did not go up on the news that Facebook will or will not…

  • More People Will Soon Have The Opportunity To Share David Einhorn’s Insider-Trading Confusion

    Matt Levine
    27 Jan 2012 | 3:02 pm
    Finally someone’s listening to us, I guess: While prominent hedge-fund manager David Einhorn was the focus of the latest alleged insider-trading case this week, a supporting actor in the drama belongs to a fraternity of London bankers that also is under increased scrutiny. Andrew Osborne, until last month a so-called corporate broker in the sprawling London outpost of Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch investment-banking unit, is alleged to have passed sensitive information to Mr. Einhorn, according to people familiar with the matter. The U.K.’s Financial Services…

  • Brian Moynihan Has Already Spent A Year Apologizing To Shareholders, Please Don’t Make Him Handle Another Confrontation

    Bess Levin
    27 Jan 2012 | 2:28 pm
    Earlier this week, in an interview with Bloomberg TV, Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman was asked how he would respond to employees expressing disappointment with this year’s bonuses. Perhaps at his wits end with compensation complaining, perhaps to indicate there is a new James Gorman in town and he is not to be fucked with, perhaps to get it through his staff’s thick skulls that they ought to WAKE UP, perhaps because he thinks the building is getting overcrowded, Gorman said he’d tell them three things: “You’re naive, read the newspaper, No. 1. No. 2, if you put your…

  • And Now An Argument That More Capital Makes Banks Less Safe

    Matt Levine
    27 Jan 2012 | 12:43 pm
    One reason that you’re in for seven lean years in the investment banking business is that bank capital requirements are going up due to Basel III, and “capital is expensive” in some loose sense, so banks will have less money to use to make loans and/or pay you. Some people think that this is mostly bull, because capital is not actually any more “expensive” than any other form of funding, though those people often actually don’t care that much about paying you so it may not be worth listening to them. In any case here is the abstract to an amusing new paper…
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    Econbrowser

  • U.S. GDP: not a recession, but still not very encouraging

    James Hamilton
    27 Jan 2012 | 12:22 pm
    The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.8% during the fourth quarter of 2011. That's better than any of the previous 5 quarters, which tells you more about how disappointing the previous year and a half has been than it does about how great the fourth quarter was. The average historical growth rate for the U.S. economy over the last 60 years has been about 3.2%. Real GDP growth at an annual rate, 1947:Q2-2011:Q4, with dates of U.S. recessions as determined by NBER indicated as shaded regions. Blue line represents historical average growth…

  • UK: Into Recession

    Menzie Chinn
    25 Jan 2012 | 8:51 pm
    So much for expansionary fiscal contraction in the UK. Not that that’s a surprise. The UK Office of National Statistics has just released preliminary estimates for real GDP growth in 2011Q4. The 0.8% contraction (q/q SAAR) was large than consensus [1], and in fact larger than the 0.6% decline forecasted by Deutsche Bank on 1/18. Figure 1 illustrates the fact that a year and a half after the election of a coalition government bent on a path of austerity, the UK economy is likely to be entering a new recession (not that growth was so great even before the dip). Figure 1: Annualized q/q growth…

  • In Search Of: Fiscal Responsibility

    Menzie Chinn
    23 Jan 2012 | 8:45 pm
    Given all the talk about taxes, I wondered how the Republican candidates plans stack up on the fiscal responsibility dimension, which Jeffry Frieden and I define thus: [T]rue fiscal responsibility involves a willingness to raise sufficient tax revenue, over the longer term, to pay for the programs the government implements. Fiscal responsibility should not be equated with a small government, but rather with a commitment to pay for the government services provided. ... ... If the nation affirms that enhancing national defense and improving health care for the poor are legitimate goals, fiscal…

  • Wealth creation

    James Hamilton
    22 Jan 2012 | 8:36 am
    Here's my suggestion for how to become rich: buy low and sell high. It's a strategy that works for individuals, and can work for the entire nation as well. If you can figure out a way to find resources whose value in their current use is not very great-- in other words, if you buy low-- and redeploy them somewhere else where their value is much greater-- in other words, sell high-- then you will not only add to your personal wealth, you will be creating new wealth for society as a whole. The process of allocating resources to their most efficient use is the heart of what drives economic…

  • Dispatches (XIX): Wisconsin Employment Hemorrhaging Continues

    Menzie Chinn
    20 Jan 2012 | 1:35 pm
    Wisconsin's Department of Workforce Development yesterday released preliminary employment figures for December, and revised figures for November. Both nonfarm payroll employment and private nonfarm payroll employment continue to decline (Figures 1 and 2). Total nonfarm payroll employment is now below levels recorded in January 2011, when Governor Walker took office. The divergence between the national employment trend and Wisconsin's over the past six months is highlighted in Figure 3. Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment from BLS (blue), from DWD (green bold), and projections from…
 
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    EconLog: Library of Economics and Liberty

  • Life in the Bubble

    David Henderson
    27 Jan 2012 | 5:20 pm
    (January 27, 2012 05:20 PM, by David Henderson) I've been busy all week teaching an intense course. Thus the hiatus in my blogging. I took the Charles Murray quiz that Arnold suggested and I scored, depending on the definition of a close friend, either 12 or 13 points... (5 COMMENTS)

  • The Bubble Quiz

    Arnold Kling
    27 Jan 2012 | 1:44 pm
    (January 27, 2012 01:44 PM, by Arnold Kling) We've been discussing Charles Murray's Coming Apart, and now there is a quiz you can take to find out if you are living in an elitist bubble. My score was reported as "between 5 and 8," which is weird, since... (19 COMMENTS)

  • The Prospects for a U.S. Default, Continued

    Arnold Kling
    27 Jan 2012 | 1:29 pm
    (January 27, 2012 01:29 PM, by Arnold Kling) Nick and I discuss this with Joseph Minarik (former OMB economist under President Clinton) and Peter Wallison. The full half-hour video is here. Below is a 3-minute preview.... (3 COMMENTS)

  • Why Should We Restrict Immigration?

    Bryan Caplan
    27 Jan 2012 | 9:57 am
    (January 27, 2012 09:57 AM, by Bryan Caplan) The Cato Journal's special immigration issue is now out.  I have the lead article, entitled "Why Should We Restrict Immigration?"  My piece sums up everything I've been saying about immigration since I joined the blog: (a) Common-sense morality implies a... (20 COMMENTS)

  • An Empirical Disagreement

    Arnold Kling
    27 Jan 2012 | 8:23 am
    (January 27, 2012 08:23 AM, by Arnold Kling) Bryan focuses our disagreement: when 10% of the workers in an occupation lose their jobs, or 5% of firms in an industry go out of business, continuity isn't merely a convenient assumption. It's a hard fact. So now it boils... (11 COMMENTS)
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    Economist's View

  • Links for 2012-01-28

    Mark Thoma
    28 Jan 2012 | 2:06 am
    Postmodern Business Cycles - Paul Krugman The Return of Schools of Thought Macro - mainly macro What does "Keynesian" mean? - Not the Treasury view More On Principal Reduction - Jared Bernstein Expanding our efforts to help more homeowners - Treasury Notes The Innovation Nation vs. the Warfare-Welfare State - Alex Tabarrok Alex Tabarrok: Public Goods Public Goods...!!! - Noahpinion The ECB is Plugging Holes - Rebecca Wilder Is opacity an excuse? - interfluidity What Is Private Equity? - James Kwak The politics of NGDPLP targeting, redux - Nick Rowe The Brain-Drain Panic Returns -…

  • "Elite Wall Street Donations Jumped 700% in the Last 20 Years"

    Mark Thoma
    27 Jan 2012 | 6:46 pm
    Via Derek Thompson: Elite Wall Street Donations Jumped 700% in the Last 20 Years, by Derek Thompson: Banks "frankly own the place," Sen. Dick Durbin famously said of Washington during the debate over financial regulation in 2010. And when it comes to total contributions for big donors, you can see what he's talking about (FIRE = the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate sector): Most of that growth is coming from the securities and investment sector, followed by real estate, Lee Drutman writes at the Sunlight Foundation, elaborating: In 1990, 412 of the 1,091 elite donors from the…

  • Greenspan's Faith in Markets

    Mark Thoma
    27 Jan 2012 | 1:06 pm
    Antonio Fatás: A matter of faith (in markets), by Antonio Fatás: Alan Greenspan contributed yesterday to the Financial Times debate about Capitalism in Crisis. The title of his article was "Meddle with the market at your peril". Not surprisignly Greenspan presents a strong defense of capitalism and market economies by comparing its success to the failures of other systems (such as planned economies). I do not think that many disagree with that conclusion. But where the article surprised me is when he talks about the potential failure of markets: Anti-capitalist virulence…

  • GDP Report: Austerity is Holding Back the Recovery

    Mark Thoma
    27 Jan 2012 | 11:24 am
    A few comments on the GDP report: GDP Report: Austerity is Holding Back the Recovery The government should be supporting the recovery, but it's not.

  • Paul Krugman: Jobs, Jobs, and Cars

    Mark Thoma
    27 Jan 2012 | 2:34 am
    Industrial clusters are more important than "heroic entrepreneurs": Jobs, Jobs and Cars, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: Mitch Daniels,... Indiana’s governor, made the Republicans’ reply to President Obama’s State of the Union address. ... Mr. Daniels first berated the president for his “constant disparagement of people in business,” which happens to be a complete fabrication. ... He went on: “The late Steve Jobs — what a fitting name he had — created more of them than all those stimulus dollars the president borrowed and blew.” ... But ... Apple employs…
 
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    EconTalk

  • David Rose on the Moral Foundations of Economic Behavior

    Russell Roberts
    23 Jan 2012 | 5:30 am
    David Rose of the University of Missouri, St. Louis and the author of The Moral Foundation of Economic Behavior talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the book and the role morality plays in prosperity. Rose argues that morality plays a crucial role in prosperity and economic development. Knowing that the people you trade with have a principled aversion to exploiting opportunities for cheating in dealing with others allows economic actors to trust one another. That in turn allows for the widespread specialization and interaction through markets with strangers that creates prosperity. In…

  • Taleb on Antifragility

    Russell Roberts
    16 Jan 2012 | 5:30 am
    Nassim Taleb, author of Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about antifragility, the concept behind Taleb's next book, a work in progress. Taleb talks about how we can cope with our ignorance and uncertainty in a complex world. Topics covered include health, finance, political systems, the Fed, your career, Seneca, shame, heroism, and a few more. Play Time: 1:13:56 How do I listen to a podcast? Download Size: 34.0 MB Right-click or Option-click, and select "Save Link/Target As MP3. Readings and Links related to this podcast Podcast Readings HIDE…

  • Dean Baker on the Crisis

    Russell Roberts
    9 Jan 2012 | 5:30 am
    Dean Baker of the Center for Economic Policy and Research talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the financial crisis. Baker sees the crisis as part of a broader set of phenomena--rising inequality and declining unionization. Baker is highly critical on both economic and political grounds of the policy attempts to stimulate the economy as well as the governance structure of the Federal Reserve. The conversation closes with a discussion of potential innovations to lower the budgetary cost of health care. Play Time: 01:03:49 How do I listen to a podcast? Download Size: 29.3 MB Right-click…

  • Sumner on Money and the Fed

    Russell Roberts
    2 Jan 2012 | 5:30 am
    Scott Sumner of Bentley University and the blog The Money Illusion talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the state of monetary policy, the actions of the Federal Reserve over the past two years and the state of the economy. Sumner argues that monetary policy has been too tight and helped create the crisis. He disputes the relevance of the so-called liquidity trap and argues that aggressive monetary policy is both possible and desirable. The conversation closes with a discussion of what we have learned and failed to learn during the crisis. Play Time: 01:06:48 How do I listen to a…

  • Tabarrok on Innovation

    Russell Roberts
    26 Dec 2011 | 5:30 am
    Alex Tabarrok of George Mason University talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his new book, Launching the Innovation Renaissance. Tabarrok argues that innovation in the United States is being held back by patent law, the legal system, and immigration policies. He then suggests how these might be improved to create a better climate for innovation that would lead to higher productivity and a higher standard of living. Play Time: 01:08:44 How do I listen to a podcast? Download Size: 31.6 MB Right-click or Option-click, and select "Save Link/Target As MP3. Readings and Links related to…
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    Environmental Economics

  • Been there, done that

    Tim Haab
    27 Jan 2012 | 11:49 am

  • Ironic quote of the day

    Tim Haab
    27 Jan 2012 | 10:14 am
    “Most farmers appreciate the president’s comments that unnecessary regulations aren’t helpful,” [said Joe Cornely, a spokesman for the Ohio Farm Bureau]. via www.dispatch.com Biting my tongue.

  • Can anyone verify this really happened?

    Tim Haab
    27 Jan 2012 | 9:54 am
    Please don't read this post as any indication of my beliefs regarding the President or politics, but rather as a question about an experiment in economics: An economics professor at a local college made a statement that he had never failed a single student before, but had recently failed an entire class. That class had insisted that Obama's socialism worked and that no one would be poor and no one would be rich, a great equalizer. I'm skeptical already.  1) An anonymous economics professor, and 2) Obama's socialism?  I can't imagine a class of college students…

  • Good news? Bad News? You be the judge

    Tim Haab
    27 Jan 2012 | 9:38 am
    In a headline news world, sometimes it's tough to figure out what is going on: CNN: Economy picks up speed Drudge: REAL GDP COLLAPSE: 1.7% FOR YEAR Washington Post: U.S. economy grew at fastest pace in 18 months LA Times: GDP grows 2.8% at year's end but rate falls short of expectations NY Times: U.S. Recovery Slowly Gained Speed in Late ’11, Data Show Fox News: US 4Q GDP expands more slowly than anticipated Yahoo! News: U.S. growth quickens in Q4, but speed-bumps ahead TMZ.com: Demi Moore -- Red Bull Addiction for Years And therein lies the tragedy.

  • Recreation Use Values Database for North America

    John Whitehead
    25 Jan 2012 | 10:35 am
    From Randy Rosenberger on the RESECON listserv: I am announcing the public availability of the Recreation Use Values Database for North America.  The database and supporting information is available at: http://recvaluation.forestry.oregonstate.edu/.  This is a work-in-progress that I hope to be able to add value to over time, in particular with your help.  There is a lot of work yet to be done on updating the database, improving access and search functions, and guidance on conducting benefit transfers.  Thus, I offer this database as a foundation upon which we can build information on…
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    footnoted.com

  • Dialing for dollars carries some risks…

    Sonya Hubbard
    27 Jan 2012 | 9:46 am
    While digging through Discover Financial Services’ (DFS) 10-K yesterday, we noticed an interesting disclosure about a class action lawsuit filed against the company last November in federal court  in California’s Northern District. It seems that one of Discover’s card holders had a beef against the company because it allegedly “…contacted him, and members of the class he seeks to represent, on their cellular telephones without their express consent in violation of the Telephone Consumer Protection Act (‘TCPA’).” However effective they might be,…

  • Nice (part-time) work if you can get it…

    Theo Francis
    26 Jan 2012 | 9:14 am
    Unemployment is still high, at 8.5%, and underemployment is rife: Plenty of people are working part-time when they’d rather have full-time jobs. Then there are the part-time jobs pretty much anyone would love to have: corporate directorships. Earlier this month, Michelle footnoted how Google (GOOG) seems to have decided to double the value of the one-time stock grant for new directors, to $1 million, from $500,000. But in recent weeks, some other director pay arrangements have also caught our eye. Like a lot of companies, WGL Holdings, a Washington, D.C.-area natural gas supplier, lets…

  • Clear Channel fires up its checkbook…

    Sonya Hubbard
    25 Jan 2012 | 9:54 am
    Last week we wrote about an American executive who got a sweet deal after his employer decided to move its headquarters from Chicago to London. But you needn’t worry that there will be some kind of executive vacuum here in the States:  Yesterday we found an equally impressive agreement that will soon transplant a London-based executive to New York. The executive in question is C. William Eccleshare, who has been working as the Chief Executive Officer—International of Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings, Inc. (CCO). The company just promoted Eccleshare to the position of CEO of the…

  • And discount American Eagle clothing, too…

    Theo Francis
    24 Jan 2012 | 9:31 am
    Correction: The headline on an early version of this post incorrectly said O’Donnell would get “free” clothing instead of discounted clothing. My apologies for the error. American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) describes itself as offering “high-quality, on-trend clothing, accessories and personal care products at affordable prices.” But while it pours effort into making the case that its clothes are a good deal, it put far less into making clear just how good a deal its retiring chief executive got on his way out the door. As retirement (or severance) packages go, James…

  • A farewell package from Kimco Realty…

    Sonya Hubbard
    23 Jan 2012 | 9:45 am
    Executives leave companies for all kinds of reasons, but we always arch a collective eyebrow when the departure is announced suddenly, without much (or any) explanation, and it involves millions of dollars. Such is the case of Barbara M. Pooley, Chief Administrative Officer with Kimco Realty Corporation (KIM), the real-estate investment trust that leases 138 million square feet in 940 shopping centers located in 44 states and a handful of other countries. Pooley has worked for Kimco for a little less than 5 years, having started in 2007 as a vice president of finance and investor relations.
 
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    Free exchange

  • Who has the most wiggle room?

    P.D.W. | LONDON
    27 Jan 2012 | 4:36 am
    BOTH the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have recently warned that if the euro-area crisis worsens it could drag the world into another deep recession. If so, emerging economies would once again be hurt by falling exports and a drying up of capital inflows. This week’s Free exchange column examines which countries have the most fiscal and monetary firepower to boost their domestic demand.The good news is that whereas most rich countries have little or no room to cut interest rates or to increase public borrowing, emerging markets as a group still have lots of monetary and…

  • The Fed acts without acting

    R.A. | LONDON
    26 Jan 2012 | 8:43 am
    ONE truth that emerges clearly from the recent history of Federal Reserve monetary-policy action is that changing central bank policy goals is like steering the Titanic. You can see where the ship ought to go, and the captain himself might do his best to pilot it there, but the nature of the beast is that it simply won't turn on a dime. There are too many extremely cautious people influencing policy decisions and too much political and market scrutiny for that.All the same, the ship has turned and is likely to continue altering its heading. Early in the crisis, the Fed reached for the…

  • Hot times in Silicon Valley

    R.A. | LONDON
    25 Jan 2012 | 11:26 am
    THE San Francisco Bay area is undergoing one of its periodic tech booms on the back of the flourishing of social networking firms. That boom, the Wall Street Journal tells us, is very good for local tech workers:Tech-jobs website operator Dice Holdings Inc. said salaries for software and other engineering professionals in California's Silicon Valley rose 5.2% to an average $104,195 last year, outstripping the average 2% increase, to $81,327, in tech-workers' salaries nationwide. It was the first time since Dice began the salary survey in 2001 that the wage barometer broke the $100,000…

  • The weekly papers

    R.A. | LONDON
    25 Jan 2012 | 10:11 am
    THIS week's interesting economics research:• Time as a trade barrier (David Hummels and Georg Schaur)• Oil prices, exhaustible resources, and economic growth (James Hamilton)• Getting up to speed on the financial crisis: a one-weekend-reader's guide (Gary Gorton and Andrew Metrick)• What explains trends in labor supply among U.S. undergraduates? (Judith Scott-Clayton)• The Nixon Shock after forty years (Douglas Irwin)• International capital flows and house prices (Jack Favilukis, David Kohn, Sydney C. Ludvigson, and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh)

  • Angela Merkel would consider a euro-zone fiscal stimulus

    C.O. | LONDON
    25 Jan 2012 | 8:56 am
    A RECENT survey by the French research institute IFOP found that in the eyes of the French, Angela Merkel represents those values that are commonly associated with Germans (serious, disciplined, hard-working, sincere and so on). The study, which was commissioned by the German embassy in Paris, also reported that 62% of respondents thought that France should learn from German economic and social policies—although I am not sure about the framing of that question in French.Ms Merkel herself disagrees with such stereotyping, as she reveals in a forthcoming interview with several European…
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    Greg Mankiw's Blog

  • Support from Anonymous

    Greg Mankiw
    27 Jan 2012 | 7:58 am
    I don't know who this blogger is, but his or her first post is called "Mankiw is right. Buffett is wrong."  And he or she puts the argument well (although I may not be objective here).

  • For High School Teachers and Students

    Greg Mankiw
    25 Jan 2012 | 8:51 pm
    The Harvard Pre-Collegiate Economics Challenge is a competition for high school students studying AP economics.   It is run by Harvard undergraduates and features one of my favorite economists as a guest speaker.  This year it will be held on Saturday, March 31, 2012 from 9 am to 5 pm.If you are interested in more information about this event, click here.

  • Two Reactions to the SOTU

    Greg Mankiw
    25 Jan 2012 | 7:11 am
    1. Last night President Obama continued his misleading claims about Warren Buffett's tax rate.  David Leonhardt recalls that I rebutted those claims several years ago.  David usefully asks for a response to my rebuttal from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal-leaning research group in Washington. Chuck Marr, the center’s director of federal tax policy, emailed David back.  Click through the link above, and read carefully what Mr Marr has to say.  Does it respond to my arguments?  No, not at all.  Mr Marr just changes the…

  • At least I am consistent

    Greg Mankiw
    24 Jan 2012 | 9:57 am
    Here is the memo that Larry Summers sent to President Obama when the 2009 stimulus package was being debated. It was originally confidential, but somehow it has recently been made public and is now going viral.I make a brief cameo appearance on page 11: "Greg Mankiw is the only economist we have consulted with who refused to name a number and was generally skeptical about stimulus." I explained my skepticism here. Of course, the fact that I was "the only economist" expressing skepticism reflects the range of economists that Team Obama chose to consult.

  • How to Reform the Tax System

    Greg Mankiw
    21 Jan 2012 | 5:53 pm
    Click here to read my column in Sunday's NY Times.
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    interfluidity

  • Is opacity an excuse?

    Steve Randy Waldman
    27 Jan 2012 | 4:43 am
    I’ve been getting a lot of concerned feedback from people I respect on my claim that status quo finance requires opacity and some degree of trickery in order to function. (See previous posts.) If prosperity is connected to “opaque, faintly fraudulent, financial systems”, is that an excuse for looting and predation by financial intermediaries? Won’t it be used as one?

  • Opaque and stinky logorrhea

    Steve Randy Waldman
    22 Jan 2012 | 6:02 am
    My previous post on opacity in finance attracted a lot of discussion, both in an excellent comment thread and throughout the blogosphere. Thanks. As usual, your comments put my drivel to shame. I thought I’d follow up (very belatedly, i’m sorry!) with some remarks on opacity in finance. This will be long and very poorly organized, a brain dump of responses I feel I owe people so I can move onto other things. If you actually read it, I am grateful. (I am always grateful that you read my words at all!) Anyway here goes: I, personally, detest opaque finance. I would prefer we…

  • Why is finance so complex?

    Steve Randy Waldman
    25 Dec 2011 | 11:32 pm
    Lisa Pollack at FT Alphaville mulls a question: “Why are we so good at creating complexity in finance?” The answer she comes up with is the “Flynn Effect“, basically the idea that there is an uptrend in human intelligence. Finance, in this view, gets more complex over time because financiers get smart enough to make it so. That’s an interesting conjecture. But I don’t think it’s right at all. Finance has always been complex. More precisely it has always been opaque, and complexity is a means of rationalizing opacity in societies that pretend to…

  • The Eurozone’s policy breakthrough?

    Steve Randy Waldman
    16 Dec 2011 | 8:21 pm
    Today’s money quote, obviously, is this, from Fitch: a ‘comprehensive solution’ to the eurozone crisis is technically and politically beyond reach. Fitch’s view reflects the clear consensus of Anglo-American commentators. But Anglo-American commentators aren’t always right. Ezra Klein writes that the German policy establishment “remain[s] serenely confident that they will save [the Eurozone].” Note that Klein attributes this to no one in particular. He characterizes it as a view drawn from “members of Angela Merkel’s government, members of…

  • Yes, Virginia. The banks really were bailed out.

    Steve Randy Waldman
    29 Nov 2011 | 7:08 am
    I find it really depressing that I have to write this. But it seems I have to write it. Substantially all of the TARP funds advanced to banks have been paid back, with interest and sometimes even with a profit from sales of warrants. Most of the (much larger) extraordinary liquidity facilities advanced by the Fed have also been wound down without credit losses. So there really was no bailout, right? The banks took loans and paid them back. Bullshit. Suppose you buy fire insurance from Inflammable Insurance. You pay $1000 for a year of insurance. There is no fire, so you make no claim. Next…
 
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    Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up

  • The Sears Collapse: Conspiracy or Cluelessness…or Worse?

    Jeff Matthews
    17 Jan 2012 | 7:56 am
    Since “Hellhound on His Trail” came out in the spring of 2010, I’ve had occasion to think anew about the many conspiracy theories that swirl around the story of the King assassination…a lot of perfectly sane people believe that Martin Luther King was killed as a result of a vast, shadowy conspiracy.—Hampton Sides, author, “Hellhound on His Trail.” This being the weekend America honored MLK, we’re recalling that lament of the above-quoted author Hampton Sides—whose excellent, compelling account of the largest manhunt in FBI history is worth buying, right now, on your…

  • Why Eddie Never Hired “The Guy”

    Jeff Matthews
    28 Dec 2011 | 7:31 am
    We’ve been poking fun at Sears—the Sears of Eddie Lampert, at least—since the inception of this virtual column in 2005. But now things are getting more serious, what with yesterday’s dreadful holiday sales report and store closing announcement from that once proud, powerful retailer of all things an American household could need. Today’s Wall Street Journal mulls the situation over on its front page, including Lampert’s preference for investing in the shares of Sears as opposed to the stores themselves, and Eddie’s revolving-door CEO selection process that has left the…

  • Shazam! From the Boss to the King to John & Paul (But Not George or Ringo, or Keef or Mick), Not to Mention Jessica & Nick, and Bob Dylan of All People...2011 Edition

    Jeff Matthews
    8 Dec 2011 | 11:56 am
     2011 Editor’s Note: Back by popular demand, we’ll again try to keep this year’s update brief…but past performance would tell you not to hold your breath.  Here goes. Our annual holiday music survey—highly biased, rankly unscientific and in no way comprehensive—covers new ground this year, to wit: the SiriusXM all-holiday-music channel. Actually, there are two such channels courtesy of the satellite radio monopolists at SiriusXM.  There’s one for “traditional” music of the Bing Crosby kind, in which human beings sing traditional Christmas songs while…

  • What ELSE S&P Threatened to Downgrade Today...

    Jeff Matthews
    5 Dec 2011 | 4:51 pm
     Research-in-Motion Motorola Victrola Talking Machines eToys Longtop Financial Greece Detroit Solar panel industry Herman Cain ‘N Sync Amy WinehouseAnything else we missed?Jeff Matthews
Author “Secrets in Plain Sight: Business and Investing Secrets of Warren Buffett”(eBooks on Investing, 2011)    Available now at Amazon.com© 2011 NotMakingThisUp, LLC

The content contained in this blog represents only the opinions of Mr. Matthews.
Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may…

  • His Magical Thinking: "Steve Jobs" by Walter Isaacson

    Jeff Matthews
    11 Nov 2011 | 7:26 am
    The NotMakingThisUp Book Review So how did a guy who was described by one of his closest friends as “reflexively cruel and harmful to some people” and by the mother of his first child as “an enlightened being who was cruel”; Who honed a “trick of using stares and silences to master other people”; Who took a bonus meant to be split with his best friend and future co-founder of Apple, Steve Wozniak—which “Woz” had earned for the duo by designing a video game with fewer chips than a preset maximum—and still denied it after he had become a multi-billionaire (Wozniak…
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    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

  • Capital Account: Snow stories from Davos and "muddle-through" economics with Mish

    28 Jan 2012 | 2:35 am
    I was on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster once again on Friday. She was covering the economic forum in Davos so the interview was with Demetri Kofinas. I come in about the 17 minute mark. Link if video does not play: Snow stories from Davos and "muddle-through" economics with Mish I believe the "RT" channel is picked up on Comcast but I could not find it on ATT U-verse. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post ListMike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka…

  • Prepare for Greece to Leave Eurozone; German Government Calls for Greece to Cede Sovereignty Over Tax and Spending Decisions to Eurozone "Budget Commissioner"; Text of the German Demands

    27 Jan 2012 | 6:10 pm
    Prepare for Greece to exit the Eurozone. Germany has made a request that in my opinion practically guarantees that outcome. The Financial Times has a pair of articles on the matter but the conclusion above is mine. German Government Calls for Greece to Cede Sovereignty to Eurozone "Budget Commissioner" Please consider Call for EU to Control Greek Budget The German government wants Greece to cede sovereignty over tax and spending decisions to a eurozone “budget commissioner” to secure a second €130bn bail-out, according to a copy of the proposal obtained by the Financial Times. In what…

  • 2010-2011 Originations Best Default History on Record; Delinquencies Down 25% from Highs, Foreclosure Inventory Near Peak Level

    27 Jan 2012 | 3:10 pm
    Here are a couple of interesting charts from the LPS Mortgage Monitor, January 2012 Mortgage Performance Observations report. Data as of December, 2011 Month-end. click on any chart for sharper image Originations Decline Government Responsible for Most Refinance Activity Quality of Loans Improves Foreclosure Inventory Near Peak Level Horrendous Performance of Loans in Foreclosure in Judicial States The quality of recent loans has gone up and delinquencies are lower, but the rest of the data shows numerous problems. Foreclosure inventory is near record levels and more foreclosures wait in the…

  • GDP on Recession Track; Real GDP +2.8%, Misses Estimates; Inventory Replenishment Accounts for 1.9 Percentage Points; Five-Year Treasury Yield Hits Record Low

    27 Jan 2012 | 11:45 am
    The headline real GDP number of 2.8% does not sound too bad until you dig beneath the surface. A full 1.9 percentages points of that 2.8% was inventory replenishment. Real GDP vs. a year ago is +1.6% and that is on a recession track as well. Five-Year Treasury Yield Hits Record Low Bloomberg reports Treasury Five-Year Yield Declines to Record Low as GDP Misses Forecast Treasury five-year note yields fell to a third consecutive record low after slower-than-forecast U.S. growth added to speculation the Federal Reserve will expand asset purchases to spur economic growth. Ten-year note yields…

  • Portugal 10-Year Government Bond Yield at Record High

    27 Jan 2012 | 11:39 am
    With an involuntary Greek debt restructuring in the works (see Greek Debt Solution Likely to Trigger Credit Default Swaps) it's time to focus on the next involuntary debt restructuring. Portugal 10-Year Government Bond Yield Expect a currency crisis to erupt in Portugal at any time. Round-after-round of emergency meetings (and all of them will fail), are just around the corner. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post ListMike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management.
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    A Dash of Insight

  • The Fed Role in the Economy: Now Bigger. Now Better?

    oldprof
    25 Jan 2012 | 8:58 pm
    The Fed made history today, achieving a new level of policy-making transparency. In my early days in the business, the results of an FOMC meeting were never announced.  Everyone waited until the day after the Fed meeting to see what open-market operations were conducted by the NY Fed.  First you needed to know what was needed to maintain the current policy rate.  Then you had to gauge whether the action was sufficient to maintain that rate.  System-wide repo's were aggressive easing and matched sales were tightening, but there was still a matter of interpretation.  Various Fed experts…

  • Weighing the Week Ahead: The State of the Union, Bernanke, Earnings

    oldprof
    21 Jan 2012 | 10:42 pm
    Normally the State of the Union Address would be the focal point for the week's events.  In a general sense this is still true, but our focus in this weekly series is much narrower:  What will influence markets? This SOTU speech is unlikely to have a big market effect.  The political lines have been drawn. We can all hope for initiatives that will generate some compromise, but I am not hopeful.  I expect themes related to the major national problems - -housing and jobs. My forecast last week was that by Thursday we would all be talking about earnings.  I expect earnings to dominate the…

  • Why the average investor is bamboozled by recession forecasts

    oldprof
    18 Jan 2012 | 9:34 pm
    I have a problem.  I cannot teach my research methods course in one short article - -not even the undergraduate version. Since the topic is so important I want to do it right by conveying the most important features.  While readers of this article may not be able to write a critique of various research findings, you might develop a strong instinct for what is right. Background I have served as a referee for scholarly journals, as a methods prof at top schools, and most significantly, as a gatekeeper judging investment research.  You might be surprised to learn that much of the work at…

  • Positioning for 2012: Don't forget about stocks

    oldprof
    16 Jan 2012 | 12:11 pm
    For the last three years I have participated in a special interview series at Seeking Alpha.  Jonathan Liss comes up with questions that suit both the times and reader interest.  I think that readers of "A Dash" may find the discussion to be interesting, and may wish to add some comments or questions of their own. The interview was originally published here a few days ago, and the link to the series, with many fine contributions, is here. Jeff Miller Positions For 2012: Biggest Mistake Investors Can Make Right Now Is Underweighting Stocks Seeking Alpha (SA): Jeff, how would you generally…

  • Weighing the Week Ahead: Have big companies lost their earnings mojo?

    oldprof
    15 Jan 2012 | 12:56 am
    Earnings season starts in earnest this week.  There are a number of key questions: Have slowing economies in Europe introduced a big drag on profits? What about the dollar strength?  Bad for profits? Profit margins have been at historic highs.  Is the long-awaited mean reversion taking place? What about the outlook?  Can there be any confidence about future profits in the face of so much uncertainty? As I write this on Saturday, with a three-day weekend ahead, I know that the news from Greece will dominate on Tuesday. Whatever I write tonight could look silly, but I have been there…
 
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    SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page

  • GDP Report Offers Investors Clear Warning

    27 Jan 2012 | 8:52 pm
    By Markos Kaminis (Wall St. Greek): Fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was reported higher, but the growth rate fell short of economists' views. Stocks started lower on the news Friday and kept that way as a closer look at the data shows it has gaping holes in it. Thus, American economic activity may not be as supportive of stocks as valuations had accounted for up to today. Our analysis of the GDP report and our global economic outlook certainly advise for investor restraint.The government reported Friday that fourth quarter GDP grew 2.8%, which was well above the third…

  • The Silver Singularity Is Near

    27 Jan 2012 | 8:37 pm
    By Mike Scully: Price, as they say, is determined on the margins. This is especially true for inelastic goods. If 100 Tickle Me Elmo dolls exist in Walmart on Christmas eve, and 100 people absolutely need to have them, you don't have a problem. The price will be some reasonable markup on the cost of production. However, if one more person walks in fearing the wrath of his child if there's no Elmo under the tree, Walmart (WMT) can quickly turn into a war zone. In Walmart, this supply shortage might be settled by shoving and hair pulling. In a civilized market, this supply, demand inequity is…

  • IBM And Cisco - Good Value, Above-Average Growth And A Dividend Kicker

    27 Jan 2012 | 8:24 pm
    By Chuck Carnevale:Although it seems odd to discuss technology stocks as dividend growth stocks, the truth is this once fast-growing and sometimes high-flying sector has matured. Consequently, some of the biggest and best names that had been historically looked at as pure growth stocks are beginning to look attractive from the point of view of a decent current dividend yield with the possibility of it increasing over time. Moreover, the above-average growth phase of many of these companies has not ended just yet.This is the fifth in a series of articles this week that is looking at…

  • A Tale Of 2 Networking Equipment Earnings

    27 Jan 2012 | 8:00 pm
    By Stone Fox Capital:After the close on Thursday, networking equipment stocks Juniper Networks (JNPR) and Riverbed Technology (RVBD) reported earnings that sent both stocks lower on Friday. One company missed estimates and focused on issues with carrier spending and the European debt crisis. The other exceeded estimates and talked about a product transition in Q1 leading to a major new product cycle.So which stock was down 18% and which one was down 3% at the close on Friday? That might surprise most investors who read the earnings reports and listened to the conference calls.Juniper…

  • Book Review: Fusion Analysis, By V. John Palicka

    27 Jan 2012 | 7:40 pm
    By Brenda Jubin: Fusion Analysis: Merging Fundamental, Technical, Behavioral, and Quantitative Analysis for Risk-Adjusted Excess Returns (McGraw-Hill, 2012) is based on a course V. John Palicka offered at the New York Institute for Finance. As the subtitle indicates, the book advocates a multi-pronged or, perhaps better put, a blended approach to investing.Palicka’s general approach is not new. Many stock screeners and investment services score stocks using a variety of inputs. For the investor who wants to do it himself, however, it’s not always obvious what kinds of inputs make the most…
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Educational monoculture

    Andrew
    27 Jan 2012 | 8:29 am
    John Cook writes that he’d like to hear more people talk about “educational monoculture.” I don’t actually know John Cook but I enjoy reading his blog, so I feel like the least I can do is to honor his request. I have to admit that I have a bit of a monocultural temperament myself. I have strong feelings about the right and wrong way to do things, and I don’t have much patience for what seems to me to be the wrong way. As a result, I’ve often disparaged or ignored important statistical developments because some small aspect of the new idea didn’t fit…

  • Suggested resolution of the Bem paradox

    Andrew
    26 Jan 2012 | 8:11 am
    There has been an increasing discussion about the proliferation of flawed research in psychology and medicine, with some landmark events being John Ioannides’s article, “Why most published research findings are false” (according to Google Scholar, cited 973 times since its appearance in 2005), the scandals of Marc Hauser and Diederik Stapel, two leading psychology professors who resigned after disclosures of scientific misconduct, and Daryl Bem’s dubious recent paper on ESP, published to much fanfare in Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, one of the top…

  • Chris Schmid on Evidence Based Medicine

    Andrew
    25 Jan 2012 | 8:15 am
    Chris Schmid is a statistician at New England Medical Center who is an expert on evidence-based medicine. I invited him to present an introductory overview lecture on the topic at last year’s Joint Statistical Meetings, and here are his slides. All 123 of them. I don’t know how he expected to go though all of these in an hour. You could teach a semester-long course based on this material. Good stuff, I recommend you all read it.

  • Difficulties in publishing non-replications of implausible findings

    Andrew
    24 Jan 2012 | 8:57 am
    Eric Tassone points me to this news article by Christopher Shea on the challenges of debunking ESP. Shea writes: Earlier this year, a major psychology journal published a paper suggesting that there was some evidence for “pre-cognition,” a form of ESP. Stuart Ritchie, a doctoral student at the University of Edinburgh, is part of a team that tried, but failed, to replicate those results. Here, he tells the Chronicle of Higher Education’s Tom Bartlett about the difficulties he’s had getting the results published. Several journals told the team they wouldn’t publish a study that…

  • Fight! (also a bit of reminiscence at the end)

    Andrew
    23 Jan 2012 | 8:02 am
    Martin Lindquist and Michael Sobel published a fun little article in Neuroimage on models and assumptions for causal inference with intermediate outcomes. As their subtitle indicates (“A response to the comments on our comment”), this is a topic of some controversy. Lindquist and Sobel write: Our original comment (Lindquist and Sobel, 2011) made explicit the types of assumptions neuroimaging researchers are making when directed graphical models (DGMs), which include certain types of structural equation models (SEMs), are used to estimate causal effects. When these assumptions,…
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    Streetsblog New York City

  • NYC: Caption Contest: Tappan Zee Outreach Gone Fishin’

    Noah Kazis
    27 Jan 2012 | 2:45 pm
    Until last fall, the state’s planning for a new Tappan Zee Bridge was a model of public outreach. It included over 280 public meetings and one outreach center open full-time on each side of the bridge. Under Governor Andrew Cuomo, however, the project has been “fast-tracked.” Transit was axed from the bridge and the project is hurtling forward without basic information being provided to the public. Tellingly, the outreach centers have been shuttered; shown above is the Nyack site as of yesterday. The sign in the window says “Space For Rent.” Let us know in the…

  • NYC: The Weekly Carnage

    Summer Greenstein
    27 Jan 2012 | 12:24 pm
    The Weekly Carnage is a Friday round-up of motor vehicle violence across the five boroughs and beyond. For more on the origins and purpose of this column, please read About the Weekly Carnage. A crash at Broadway and 97th Street injured a pedestrian and sent a cab into scaffolding. Photo:DNA Fatal Crashes (2 killed this week, 11 this year, 3 drivers charged*) Midwood: 58-Year-Old Pedestrian Hit by One Driver, Fatally Struck by a Second in Hit-and-Run (ABC 7, NY1) Staten Island: Nelson Coelho, 23, Struck Trying to Cross SI Expressway (Post) Injuries, Arrests and Property Damage Greenwich…

  • NYC: Cuomo Admin Denies Requests for Information on Tappan Zee Financing

    Noah Kazis
    27 Jan 2012 | 11:22 am
    How does Andrew Cuomo plan to pay for the new Tappan Zee Bridge? The state isn’t saying — and it isn’t letting the public weigh in, either. Why won't the Cuomo administration say how it plans to pay for a new Tappan Zee Bridge? Photo: Angel Franco/Newsday The Cuomo administration won’t release its financial plan for the bridge until April or May, according to a report in the Journal News. That’s just months before construction is scheduled to start, and months after the state starts soliciting proposals from contractors. It’s far too late for New…

  • NYC: Today’s Headlines

    Noah Kazis
    27 Jan 2012 | 7:59 am
    “Most Gerrymandered Lines” in Memory Shortchange Dems, NYC (NY World) Pedestrian Struck Once, Killed By Second Driver While Waiting For Ambulance (ABC 7) Hoboken, Jersey City Hope to Have Joint Bike-Share Running This Summer (Jersey Journal) Transit Use on the Rise in Even the Most Distant Parts of Brooklyn (Bk Bureau) Lhota Wants to Expand Williamsburg’s Booming L Stations (News) Queens Electeds Rally For Free Driving on Cross Bay Bridge (Times-Ledger) Chris Christie Proposes Statewide Smart Growth Plan (WSJ) Legislators Chafe at Cuomo’s Tight-Lipped Transportation…

  • NYC: City Planning Commission OKs Excess St. Vincent’s Parking

    Noah Kazis
    26 Jan 2012 | 4:05 pm
    A rendering of the Rudin family plans for new condos at the site of St. Vincent's Hospital. Rudin wants to include 152 parking spaces, while the community board wants zero. Image: Rudin via WSJ. The City Planning Commission approved a Rudin family request to build 50 percent more parking than allowed at the site of the former St. Vincent’s Hospital in Greenwich Village. The commission’s unanimous approval came last Monday despite opposition to the parking garage from the local community board and evidence that Rudin hadn’t met the city’s own requirements for…
 
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    The Big Picture

  • How to Restore an Old Car

    Barry Ritholtz
    28 Jan 2012 | 5:30 am
    Source:How to Restore an Old Car on a Budget

  • China’s Factory Cities

    Barry Ritholtz
    28 Jan 2012 | 5:00 am
    Catherine Rampell, a business reporter, interviews David Barboza, a foreign correspondent, about working conditions in Chinese electronics factories and the role of U.S. companies.

  • How Often Does the Film Industry Cry Wolf Over Piracy?

    Barry Ritholtz
    27 Jan 2012 | 5:39 pm
    Via TechDirt, we learn the frequency with which Hollywood insists every new technology will destroy the movie business: > click for full infographic giant infographic after the jump

  • Succinct Summation Of Week’s Events (01/27/12)

    Peter Boockvar
    27 Jan 2012 | 2:30 pm
    Succinct summation of week’s events: Positives: 1) Italian and Spanish bond yields continue lower, 10 yr in Italy below 6%, Spain’s below 5% 2) German IFO business confidence rises to 8 month high 3) German consumer confidence at best since April 4) Euro zone mfr’g and services composite index unexpectedly moves back above 50, led by Germany 5) US Durable Goods orders in Dec surprise to upside but how much was pulled forward from 2012 due to 12/31 expiration of full depreciation expensing? 6) Jan UoM confidence rises to best since Feb ’11 7) Richmond and KC mfr’g…

  • Zero Rates Through Late 2014? PUHLEASE!

    Bill King
    27 Jan 2012 | 1:10 pm
    It is irresponsible for the Fed to state that it will keep rates exceptionally low through at least late 2014. No one, least of all the misguided seers at the Fed, knows what inflation, the economy, the dollar, etc. will be in coming quarters, let alone two years. Please recall that we mockingly said that the Fed would in the future announce that it would keep rates exceptionally low through 2014, then through 2015, then through infinity. The reason for the ‘late 2014’ verbiage is the Fed wanted to throw a bone to The Street because it did not announce the much-desired QE 3.0. Stocks and…
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    The Epicurean Dealmaker

  • All Together Now

    22 Jan 2012 | 4:33 pm
    “Do you mean, sir, that these birds are cannibals?” “That’s an odd question, young Master,” the banker said. “I merely said the birds drink blood. It doen’t have to be the blood of their own kind, does it?” “It was not an odd question,” Paul said, and Jessica noted the brittle riposte quality of her training exposed in his voice. “Most educated people know that the worst potential competition for any young organism can come from its own kind.” He deliberately forked a bite of food from his companion’s plate, ate it.

  • A Certain Moral Flexibility

    21 Jan 2012 | 4:56 pm
    Marty: “When I left, I joined the Army, and when I took the service exam, my psych profile fit a certain... ‘moral flexibility’ would be the only way to describe it. I was loaned out to a CIA-sponsored program, and we sort of found each other. That’s the way it works.” Debi: “So you... you’re a government spook?” Marty: “Yes. I mean no. I was before, but I’m not now. Uh, but that’s all irrelevant, really. The idea of governments, nations is public relations theory at this point.” Debi: “I don’t want to hear…

  • All’s Fair...

    15 Jan 2012 | 2:45 pm
    “Musashi!” No answer. “Musashi!” The sea rumbled ominously in the distance; the tide lapped and murmured at the two men’s feet. “You’re late again, aren’t you? Is that your strategy? As far as I’m concerned, it’s a cowardly ploy. It’s two hours past the appointed time. I was here at eight, just as I promised. I’ve been waiting.” Musashi did not reply. “You did this at Ichijōji, and before that at the Rengeōin. Your method seems to be to throw your opponent off by deliberately making him wait. That…

  • The Root of Some Evil

    8 Jan 2012 | 8:37 pm
    “It has always seemed strange to me,” said Doc. “The things we admire in men, kindness and generosity, openness, honesty, understanding and feeling are the concomitants of failure in our system. And those traits we detest, sharpness, greed, acquisitiveness, meanness, egotism and self-interest are the traits of success.” — John Steinbeck, Cannery Row To greed, all nature is insufficient. — Lucius Annaeus Seneca Professor Ian Tonks—great name, by the way—put up an interesting column at vox today, in which he discusses recent research he and his…

  • Turn the Page

    31 Dec 2011 | 1:46 pm
    “Everybody’s coming back to take stock of their lives. You know what I say? Leave your livestock alone.” — Grosse Pointe Blank One more rotation of a small blue planet on its circuit around a minor yellow star at the edge of an unremarkable galaxy in an accidental universe is flimsy justification for the importance which so many of us put on the turning of the year. But we have agreed to take this day and night as a sign of something larger, something more important than our quotidian lives. It is simple convention, yes, but it is our convention. And who is to say we…
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    The price of everything

  • R.I.P. Maestro

    timprice
    27 Jan 2012 | 10:45 am
    “Crony capitalism abounds when government leaders, usually in exchange for political support, routinely bestow favours on private sector individuals or businesses. That is not capitalism. It is called corruption.” -       Alan Greenspan, writing for some reason in last week’s Financial Times, in an article amusingly entitled ‘Meddle with the market at your peril’. Alan Greenspan, who may have died aged 326, was a failed lingerie salesman and serial fantasist who was accidentally appointed chairman of the US Federal Reserve. Alan Stanford Ayn Rand…

  • Living off immoral earnings

    timprice
    25 Jan 2012 | 3:21 am
    “The reality.. is that banks.. support a thick layer of second tier executives, as well as legions of pen-pushing, meeting-loving, middle- and back-office workers who are paid multiples of their worth and contribution, especially compared with other industries.” -       Financial Times’ Lex column, January 19th, 2012. “Stephen [Hester, CEO of RBS] is being urged by a number of people to accept the bonus and I think he will”.. This person [an unnamed senior banker] added that if [Hester] turned down his bonus, it would “demoralise” staff…

  • The final countdown

    timprice
    16 Jan 2012 | 4:07 am
    “Under the circumstances, discussions with Greece and the official sector are paused for reflection on the benefits of a voluntary approach.” Debt talks “have not produced a constructive response.” -       The Institute of International Finance, January 13 2012.   “The war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan’s advantage..” -       Japanese Emperor Hirohito after the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, announcing Japan’s surrender to the Allies. There is a terrible hubris at the…

  • A revolutionary road

    timprice
    9 Jan 2012 | 3:38 am
    “Some investors aren’t confident with what gold is backed by, as compared to something like the US dollar. Investors are comfortable that the US dollar is backed by the US government.” -       CTV national news field reporter Bridget Brown. This channel should perhaps be called WTF ? Sam Mendes’ 2008 film ‘Revolutionary Road’ is edited to maximise heartbreak among viewers. Its opening scene shows bright young things Frank (Leonardo DiCaprio) and April (Kate Winslet) falling for each other at a New York party. Without missing a beat it then cuts…

  • A beef quiz, and revisited Koo

    timprice
    3 Jan 2012 | 3:10 am
    “Like a Hitchcock film. You did not need to see the blood and gore and violence – the hint of it and the menace that pervaded the office was worse.”   -       Theo Zemek cheerily describes the atmosphere at New Star Asset Management.   Just as there are said to be no atheists in foxholes, try finding a long-term investor during a Crash, or even amid fears of one. We extend this thesis and welcome in the New Year by means of two Buffett-related behavioural anecdotes; one from the great man himself, the other courtesy of Sanlam’s Kokkie…
 
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    VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

  • Foreign banks: New data on trends and effects

    27 Jan 2012 | 6:00 pm
    Stijn Claessens, Neeltje van Horen, 28 January 2012Foreign banks on domestic soil have always been controversial. This column presents a newly collected, comprehensive database on bank ownership for 137 countries over the period 1995–2009. It shows that current market shares of foreign banks average 20% in OECD countries and 50% elsewhere. In developing countries, however, foreign bank presence is correlated with less private credit.Full Article: Foreign banks: New data on trends and effects

  • Rogue aid: Should we fear China’s aid programme?

    26 Jan 2012 | 6:00 pm
    Axel Dreher, Andreas Fuchs, 27 January 2012China is often accused of providing ‘rogue aid’. China is said to be more interested in securing natural resources, export markets, and political alliances than concerned about the development of needy countries This column looks at the data on China’s aid allocations between 1996 and 2005. It finds that China is in fact no more self-serving than most Western donors.Full Article: Rogue aid: Should we fear China’s aid programme?

  • The coming resolution of the Eurozone crisis

    25 Jan 2012 | 6:00 pm
    Fred Bergsten, Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, 26 January 2012Policy reactions to the Eurozone crisis are seen by many as short-sighted, incoherent, and driven by political expediency. This column disagrees. What we are seeing is a game of chicken among the key political and economic powers in Europe. As the crash looms ever closer, the right deals will be struck and Europe will emerge stronger and with its currency intact. Full Article: The coming resolution of the Eurozone crisis

  • Surges in capital flows to emerging markets: Causes and policy implications

    25 Jan 2012 | 6:00 pm
    Atish R Ghosh, Mahvash Saeed Qureshi, 26 January 2012In the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis, there was a rapid surge in net capital flows to emerging market economies. The subsequent decline in recent months has been even more rapid. Looking at data on 56 capital surges between 1980 and 2009, this column examines the causes of the mercurial movement of capital flows across countries and outlines the implications for policy. Full Article: Surges in capital flows to emerging markets: Causes and policy implications

  • The back of Berlusconi: Is this the end of populism in Europe?

    24 Jan 2012 | 6:00 pm
    Luigi Guiso, Helios Herrera, Massimo Morelli, 25 January 2012What good might come from Europe’s crisis? Profligate governments in Italy and Greece, while pandering to the masses, have left their countries with crippling debt. This column draws parallels with Latin America and argues that the current hardship may sound a death knell for populism in southern Europe, as it has elsewhere.Full Article: The back of Berlusconi: Is this the end of populism in Europe?
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    Cafe Hayek

  • Change incentives instead of regulating outcomes

    Russ Roberts
    27 Jan 2012 | 12:01 pm
    Deep insight from Eugene White in this paper (HT: Scott Sumner) The fantastically costly failures of banks and other financial intermediaries are a consequence of appallingly bad choices made by managers. To gain unseemly executive compensation, managers had incentives to exploit conflicts of interests, increase leverage, and choose risky trades, instruments and portfolios. Reacting to these disastrous choices, policy makers have recommended splitting up the banks to make them smaller or limiting the scope of their activities. Elaborate efforts are being expended to ensure that leverage is…

  • Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    27 Jan 2012 | 7:22 am
    … is from pages 8-9 of Mark Pennington’s 2011 book Robust Political Economy: Moreover, insofar as market failure theorists are right to focus on ‘incentive compatibility’, they fail to appy this analysis to their favoured institutional alternatives.  A consistent analysis of collective action and asymmetric information problems reveals that these are often more pronounced in a public sector environment than they are in a regime of ‘imperfect markets’.

  • Dicey Economics

    Don Boudreaux
    26 Jan 2012 | 9:07 pm
    Here’s a letter to the Wall Street Journal: Lobbyist Scott Paul details the bounty that American tire producers now reap from the Obama administration’s tariff on Americans who buy Chinese tires (Letters, Jan. 26).  He then asserts that these gains prove the tariff’s merit. Bull. The argument against tariffs is not that they fail to yield benefits to protected industries; rather, it’s that these benefits come at the greater expense of the public at large.  Mr. Paul’s letter is evidence of the truth of Albert Venn Dicey’s observation that “Every man…

  • Dan Klein’s new book

    Russ Roberts
    26 Jan 2012 | 7:06 am
    Here is Dan Klein talking about his new book, Knowledge and Coordination: His EconTalk episode on the book is here.  

  • Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    26 Jan 2012 | 6:24 am
    … is from page 63 of John Mueller’s outstanding 1999 book Capitalism, Democracy, and Ralph’s Pretty Good Grocery: From the perspective of the intellectual, then, people in business may appear small-minded, crass, menial, and even stupid – though typically they will understand their business in greater depth and finer nuance than the average intellectual will ever understand anything. Yep – although it’s wise to add that to understand one’s business is not (contrary to much popular misconception) simultaneously to understand adequately the workings or…
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    Dollars & Sense Blog

  • New Issue, plus Various Occupy Links

    Chris Sturr
    19 Jan 2012 | 3:31 pm
    Occupy the Stairs--by a kid in Lansing, W.Va. (Hat-tip to Jenny B. for today’s potentially irrelevant image.) (1) New Issue! Our Jan/Feb 2012 issue is finally at the printers.  Print subscribers should get their magazines in a week to ten days; e-subscribers should get their full-color pdfs in about twenty minutes. Not a subscriber? Please subscribe right now, here. I have posted two articles from the new issue to the website:  Jeannette Wicks-Lim’s The Great Recession in Black Wealth, and John Miller and Katherine Sciacchitano’s Why the United States Is Not Greece. (2) …

  • ASSA/AEA Protests; Repubs on Bain; Davidson

    Chris Sturr
    13 Jan 2012 | 5:14 pm
    "I Was Wrong" (1) ASSA/AEA Protests: I apologize for the delay posting–I was in Chicago for the annual meetings of the Allied Social Sciences Association, a/k/a the American Economic Association and its marginalized poor cousins.  My last post mentioned the protests that were planned. Here is an article I whipped out for the Boston Occupier (the print newspaper of Occupy Boston) on the protests, which were a blast: Occupy the AEA! The movement takes on free-market economists at their annual meetings in Chicago. By Chris Sturr In January 2009, as economists gathered in San…

  • #D17; OB eviction; Gar everywhere; Eurozone; odds and ends

    Chris Sturr
    16 Dec 2011 | 3:30 pm
    (1) D17: Big protests in NYC and elsewhere to commemorate the third month of #OWS.  Click on the image above for info about NYC events; visit your local Occupy’s website for info about protests near you.  I know some places are having rallies in support of Bradley Manning whose birthday is tomorrow and who is finally getting a pre-trial hearing, after more than 500 days incarcerated. (2) #OccupyBoston evicted: Since my last post was about the imminent eviction of #OccupyBoston from Dewey Square in the Rose Kennedy Greenway, you may have figured out that that happened.  I think it…

  • #OB Restraining Order Lifted; Alperovitz Videos, etc.

    Chris Sturr
    7 Dec 2011 | 5:17 pm
    (Find more great Occupy art here.) (1) Restraining Order Protecting #OccupyBoston Lifted: The judge who had imposed a restraining order against the city of Boston and the Boston Police Department against evicting #OccupyBoston from Dewey Square has lifted that order.  An emergency General Assembly has been called for 7pm tonight.  Here’s a statement from the Mass ACLU: Statement of the ACLU of Massachusetts on decision re Occupy BostonDecember 7, 2011The following statement may be attributed to Carol Rose, executive director of the ACLU of Massachusetts: We are disappointed with…

  • The “Miami Model” and Bahrain; Europe; Walker

    Chris Sturr
    4 Dec 2011 | 1:54 pm
    Disorder Control Unit memo (1) Timoney and Bahrain: (Note today’s possibly irrelevant image–can’t remember where I downloaded it, but it was apparently found in a police van in lower Manhattan recently.) The other day I linked to an article from the Atlantic that gave a useful account of the recent history of police tactics with respect to large protests.  We are now in the era of the “Miami model,” which involves “strategic incapacitation.” From that article: 9/11 put the final nail in the coffin of the previous protest-control regime. By the time…
 
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    Economic Policy Institute - Feed

  • GDP growth disappointing in last quarter of 2011

    Josh Bivens
    27 Jan 2012 | 10:28 am
    According to today’s data release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, gross domestic product—the broadest measure of the nation’s economic activity—grew at an annualized rate of 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, an increase from the previous quarter’s 1.8 percent growth rate and the highest quarterly rate of growth since the second quarter of 2010.* While 2.8 percent growth would likely put very mild downward pressure on the unemployment rate if sustained over a year, it is unclear if the growth trend of GDP is even as high as this quarter’s release suggests; for all of…

  • Economy’s current growth rate will not reliably lower unemployment

    Josh Bivens
    27 Jan 2012 | 8:09 am
    Gross domestic product grew in the fourth quarter of 2011 at the fastest rate since the first half of 2010 – but any celebration should be muted. The 2.8% growth rate for the quarter was well below expectations and the year-round growth rate for 2011 was only 1.7%, a rate that would not generate reliable declines in unemployment should it continue. It seems clear that the sharp withdrawal of fiscal support currently embedded in law for 2012 would result in growth wholly insufficient to reliably lower the unemployment rate. At the very least, a year-long extension of extended unemployment…

  • President Obama, help low-income families by creating jobs

    Elise Gould
    25 Jan 2012 | 2:12 pm
    This commentary first appeared in Spotlight on Poverty and Opportunity Last night, President Obama addressed Congress and the nation, highlighting his plans for the upcoming year. The future economic well-being of families was a major theme in his speech. While he did not spend much time on the specific issues facing low income families, he did focus on the crisis of joblessness more broadly. President Obama gave a clear message that jobs are important to working families. The number one priority to assist low-income families is to add jobs more broadly. There are 13 million officially…

  • State unemployment trends: Every silver lining has a cloud

    Doug Hall
    24 Jan 2012 | 2:38 pm
    State level data released today by the BLS appears at first glance to confirm that most states are on a path to economic recovery.  Over the past three months (since September 2011), 44 states have experienced reduced unemployment rates, and only four states (Hawaii, Indiana, Oklahoma and Rhode Island) have experienced an increase in their unemployment rates (three states have unchanged unemployment rates over this timeframe).  Seven states – Alabama, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee and Utah – all stand out as states with an unemployment rate reduction of one…

  • Labor market still needs more than 10 million jobs

    Heidi Shierholz
    24 Jan 2012 | 10:30 am
    The backdrop to President Obama’s State of the Union address tonight is the dire state of the labor market. The jobs deficit left from losses in 2008 and 2009 remains well over 10 million jobs; this takes into account both the 6.1 million fewer jobs we have now than we did before the recession started, and the fact that we should have added over four million jobs over that period just to keep up with normal growth in the working age population. In December, the addition of 200,000 jobs was heralded as strong growth, but, as the figure shows, even at that rate the United States will not…
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    Japan Economy Watch

  • Japanese annual trade deficit reflects industrial strategy reversal

    Scott
    25 Jan 2012 | 10:38 am
    Japan's energy and industrial policy that has been in place since the oil crisis of the early 1970's has been overturned.Reuters reports today that Japan's first trade deficit since 1980 raises debt doubts:"Japan runs trade deficit of $32 bln in 2011Dec exports -8.0 pct yr/yr, imports +8.1 pct"A key is the problem of increased reliance on fuel imports due to the loss of nuclear power. Only four

  • Japan decided to enter the military arms market

    Scott
    28 Dec 2011 | 1:37 pm
    The FT reports that "Japan relaxes weapons export ban", stating that "Tokyo has relaxed a decades-old ban on arms exports, opening the way for Japanese companies to participate in the international development and manufacture of advanced weapon systems."This is clearly a move to bolster the country's manufacturing sector and avoid current account deficits, as China's economy has slowed down.It

  • Elderly Japanese control most of that country’s savings

    Scott
    28 Oct 2011 | 12:26 am
    According to a BusinessWeek article from 2000 Japan, a Nation of Risk-Takers? (int’l edition)“Seniors aged 60 years and over own about 70% of Japan’s $11 trillion in household financial assets. Only 9% of that is directly invested in stocks and a mere 2% in mutual funds.” Eleven years later should mean that Japanese 71 and over hold 70% of $11 trillion or $7.7 trillion in household financial

  • Is Japan In Danger Of A Deflation Relapse?

    Edward Hugh
    31 Jul 2011 | 6:08 am
    "Japan’s V-shaped recovery has now become a statistical fact rather than our forecast. According to retail sales statistics, the level of retail sales in June has already exceeded the level prior to the disaster. Sales of general merchandise and apparel have recovered and replacement demand for vehicles and reconstruction demand for household equipment have lifted sales of these items to above

  • Japan riddled with toxic waste sites

    Scott
    6 Jul 2011 | 2:20 am
    Alex Kerr, in the book Dogs and Demons, documents how Japan has “only the most primitive regulation of toxic waste” (p. 57), and for comparison describes how “There are more than a thousand controlled hazardous substances in the United States” where as in Japan “only a few dozen substances were subject to government controls” (p. 58). Further, “Japanese laws do not call for
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    Business News, Financial News, Business Headlines & Analysis - The Washington Post

  • Aneesh Chopra, White House technology chief, expected to run for Va. lieutenant governor

    Anita Kumarand Ed O’Keefe
    27 Jan 2012 | 8:12 pm
    RICHMOND —Aneesh Chopra, the first White House chief technology officer, will step down and return to Virginia, where he is expected to run for lieutenant governor next year, according to Democrats familiar with his plans. Read full article >>

  • Iceland sharply divided on joining E.U. amid debt crisis

    Brady Dennis
    27 Jan 2012 | 7:22 pm
    In a handful of countries applying to join the European Union, the European debt crisis has raised an urgent question: Why would we want to be part of that mess? The answer offered in places such as Iceland could have profound effects on the health and shape of the E.U. Read full article >>

  • Report: Facebook to file IPO next Wednesday

    Hayley Tsukayama
    27 Jan 2012 | 1:06 pm
    Facebook is planning to file its initial public offering next Wednesday, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal. The exact timing is reportedly still being discussed. The newspaper reported that Morgan Stanley is close to being picked as the underwriter for the company’s IPO, which is expected to have a valuation between $75 and $100 billion dollars. Read full article >>

  • How a search for the cheapest price on drugs led to a business idea

    Olga Khazan
    27 Jan 2012 | 12:55 pm
    They say there are markets for everything, but health care has historically been a tough one to navigate. Prices for services and drugs vary widely among providers, and it’s often impossible to know the final cost of a medication until the prescription has already been filled. Read full article >>

  • Washington auto dealers see sales pick up

    Danielle Douglas
    27 Jan 2012 | 12:31 pm
    V ince Sheehy can recall his disappointment in having to close his Chrysler-Jeep-Dodge   dealership in Upper Marlboro in 2009. At the time, it had been more than 30 years since  Fairfax-based Sheehy Auto Stores shuttered a location because of slumping sales. ¶ But closing  the store was just the half of it. ¶ Sluggish demand left Sheehy saddled with excess inventory of trucks that took six months to clear off the lots, which meant high carrying costs. The company also laid off more than 50 employees across its network of 14 dealerships in the Washington area. And the remaining staff…
 
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    Credit Slips

  • The Crisis of Fake Constraints: Greek Denouement Eupdate

    Anna Gelpern
    27 Jan 2012 | 5:22 pm
    Unless Greece and its creditors reach a deal in the next few days, Greece has no money to pay €15 Billion or so due to its bondholders in March. From the start, this has been a crisis of fake legal and economic constraints masking very real political constraints. In 2010, Greece could have restructured its debt quicker than most sovereigns in modern memory -- or it might have been bailed out, had Europe chosen to go the route of fiscal transfers. Neither of these paths was taken because the European Central Bank was unwilling to countenance the sin of debt restructuring, but member states…

  • Break up Bank of America?

    Melissa Jacoby
    25 Jan 2012 | 5:31 pm
    Steve's title was subtle, so in case anyone missed it, here are the materials on Public Citizen's website. The petition calls on the Federal Reserve and the Financial Stability Oversight Commission to use their authority under Dodd-Frank to break up Bank of America. (But still check out Steve's analysis on Dealbook!).

  • And Now Featuring Melissa Jacoby

    Bob Lawless
    25 Jan 2012 | 2:46 pm
    On behalf of all the Credit Slips bloggers, it is my pleasure to announce the permanent return of Professor Melissa Jacoby as one of our "Occasionals." For the past several weeks, she had doing some guest posts, but we are very happy that she has agreed to stick around. Melissa is a professor at the University of North Carolina School of Law and a leading expert on bankruptcy law with a number of prominent studies on medical debt as well as housing issues. As one of the founding members of Credit Slips, Melissa is one of the reasons we're here at all. Welcome back.

  • Caught up on this line again

    Stephen Lubben
    25 Jan 2012 | 1:28 pm
    Bank of America, OLA, and the problems of oversized financial institutions, up now on Dealbook.

  • Should the Government or the Market Set Mortgage Down Payments? A New Study

    Melissa Jacoby
    24 Jan 2012 | 11:47 am
    UNC's Center for Community Capital has posted a new analysis of 19.5 million mortgage loans originated between 2000 and 2008 finding that mandatory down payments of 10% would lock out nearly 40% of all creditworthy borrowers while a 20% down payment would exclude 60%.  The study finds a significantly higher exclusion rate for African American and Latino borrowers.  The authors (Roberto Quercia of UNC, Lei Ding of Wayne State University, & Carolina Reid from the Center for Responsible Lending) do find valuable default-reduction benefits of other forms of strong…
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    Megan McArdle : The Atlantic

  • When Will Housing Hit Bottom?

    Megan McArdle
    27 Jan 2012 | 2:54 pm
    The National Association of Realtors is (quelle surprise!) quite bullish on the future of the housing market.  Not so fast, says Lance Roberts of StreetTalk Advisors:He sees 2012 as another year of lagging sales, considering the average household debt for Americans over the age of 16 comes to $96,229 per person. In addition, the average income before taxes is roughly $54,110 and many Americans have a debt-to-income ratio of 177.8%, making it difficult for them to qualify for a home loan. Roberts says the average median income for a family is $55,000, and the average median home sales price…

  • What Did Ron Paul Know, and When Did He Know It?

    Megan McArdle
    27 Jan 2012 | 1:43 pm
    The Washington Post is reporting that Ron Paul actively signed off on the not-so-veiled racism in the newsletters published under his name in the 1980s.  I'm sure that in the next few days, there will be some hot denials, and some Paulistas and paleolibertarians complaining about the Koch-funded conspiracy to destroy him.  (See, liberals?  You're not the only ones who think that Charles Koch is spending his massive fortune to destroy America).  I think the arguments and counter-arguments about what he knew and when he knew it will be rather beside the point.  It is simply not credible…

  • How Rich Is Warren Buffett's Secretary?

    Megan McArdle
    26 Jan 2012 | 9:20 am
    Thanks to ABC, we now have a number on the difference between Warren Buffett's tax rate, and his secretary's.  According to the network, "Bosanek pays a tax rate of 35.8 percent of income, while Buffett pays a rate at 17.4 percent."Conservatives have swooped on this.  What sort of income is implied by a 35.8% tax rate?  A very, very high one.  Various commentators have suggested that she must be making north of $200,000.Well, it's clear that we're not just talking about federal income taxes, because her claimed taxes are higher than the top marginal tax rate.  They're also higher than…

  • The President's Nostalgianomics

    Megan McArdle
    25 Jan 2012 | 2:34 pm
    I was on Stossel's State of the Union special last night, so I watched the speech in the company of David Boaz, Matt Welch, and Governor Gary Johnson.  I had a lot to say about it on television, which you can watch here.  I thought the speech was better-written and better-delivered than many of the critics I read this morning; it had a lot of good applause lines (along with, yes, the groaner about spilled milk), and the president is stylistically a very good speaker.But I also thought that, three years in, I'd like to see a little more from his speeches than base-pleasing applause lines and…

  • Can the Rise of the Internet Explain D.C. Zoning Fights?

    Megan McArdle
    24 Jan 2012 | 2:32 pm
    Yesterday's post about the internet challenge to brick-and-mortar retail has triggered a number of really interesting discussions in the comments about things like big box supply chains, the sustainability of Amazon's Prime strategy, and the future of teenaged jobs in a world without physical retail.  I highly recommend reading them.One of the sub-discussions caused my thoughts to turn--as they so often do--to neighborhood politics in DC.  Yes, those of you who are sick of my DC-centric posts can tune out now.  The rest of you, read on . . . Many of the urban planning debates that take…
 
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    InvestorCentric

  • Fed Economists Laugh It Off

    Eric Ames
    23 Jan 2012 | 11:29 am
    A new graph is making its way around the Internet that charts the amount of laughter recorded by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) stenographers during meetings between 2001 and 2006 – during the ramp-up to the recession. The graph shows that committee members had increasingly more fun as the years passed, and suggests they could have been doing more to keep an eye on the growing housing bubble that would soon burst. The FOMC is expected to announce a new initiative regarding interest-rate projections and future impact, and many are wondering how many will be laughing. For more on this…

  • Stiglitz Forecasts Financial Doom, Gloom

    Eric Ames
    13 Jan 2012 | 12:20 pm
    Columbia University professor and Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz is not optimistic about the prospect of the American Dream as the country moves into 2012. Stiglitz waxes philosophical about the country’s growing wage gap, terminal unemployment and financial crises that have erupted in multiple areas of the world. He opines that working on long-term problems like fiscal debt could actually solve short-term problems like unemployment if the world’s power players were not rooted in politics as usual. The fear, Stiglitz says, is that the system will cataclysmically right itself before cooler…

  • Fed Backs Conversion of Foreclosures into Rentals

    Eric Ames
    6 Jan 2012 | 11:31 am
    The Federal Reserve’s latest report on the U.S. housing market indicates its advocacy for the bundling and selling of government-owned foreclosed homes to investors who can then convert the homes into rental properties. The report notes that the market is not expected to improve and that interest in rentals will continue to increase, thereby opening the door to a government investment opportunity. Some critics believe, however, that the ulterior motive here is to neutralize an area (rental costs) that accounts the for the Fed’s “core” inflation rate by placing more rentals on the…

  • Farmland Values Soar in Heartland

    Eric Ames
    4 Jan 2012 | 12:22 pm
    Tim Iacono comments on a Brian Williams news segment detailing the rising prices of farmland across America’s heartland, particularly in Iowa, where Republican presidential candidates so recently debated. Prices in the area have risen more than 30% in Iowa and 25% on average throughout the Midwest. One land auction featured in the report resulted in a sale for more than $13,000 per acre – more than double the value from five years ago. Experts say the increases are driven by the rarity with which farmland comes on the market and the growing demand for agricultural products, particularly…

  • China Showing Signs of Economic Weakness

    Eric Ames
    20 Dec 2011 | 10:13 am
    Economist Paul Krugman takes an unflinching look at China’s current economic position, and believes what he sees is a mirror image of Japan in the 80s or the U.S. in 2007: a country that has relied on shady banking practices to sustain a boom in growth that now cannot be supported by domestic consumption or financing. Now, as the bubble is set to burst, the country seems ready to dig in its heels, particularly by issuing punitive tariffs on foreign trade partners. Krugman rightly notes that the last thing the global economy needs is another crisis point, but he also believes that is the…
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    The Aleph Blog

  • Recent Tweets

    David Merkel
    27 Jan 2012 | 4:04 am
    Stinks RT @s_m_i: RT @hedgefundinvest: RT @financialpost: Twitter to censor content in some countries http://t.co/zhnzV1Qo Jan 27, 2012 When the Reps win, wants 2b FedChair RT @pdacosta: Fed activism harms US growth, former Fed board governor Warsh says http://t.co/Tht5YyHi Jan 27, 2012 I’m different. I gained my net worth little by little through investing, and have kept it. My wife is glad she married me, and not my friend Jan 27, 2012 that I made to him in March 2009, with stock conversion rights. Many entrepreneurs r this way; they are not geared to preserving wealth. $$ Jan 27,…

  • On Junk Bonds

    David Merkel
    27 Jan 2012 | 4:01 am
    If someone were to ask me my opinion on Junk Bonds at present, fool that he would be to ask me because I know real experts elsewhere, I would say this: They are good for a speculative trade, but dumb money has arrived.  Be ready to sell when the momentum fails.High yield ETFs sell at decent premiums which leads to the creation of more units.  High yield closed-end funds — 73% trade at a premium.  You could issue a new high yield CEF, and come out at a lower premium than the current average.  I think I smell smoke.Hmm….  If I owned junk bonds I would hold, and wait for…

  • On Opaque Transparency

    David Merkel
    26 Jan 2012 | 12:45 am
    There are two things that I want to comment on Fed policy this evening: Transparency is overrated, and Bernanke does not understand savings.Transparency is OverratedEver heard of the phrase “data overload?”  Greenspan would do that verbally in his testimony to Congress, providing them with more data than they needed, and occasionally contradictory so that each side could quote what they wanted.Well, the present transparency policy of the Fed is another version of data overload.  Give lots of data — some similar, some different.  Opinions, forecasts, policies —…

  • Recent Tweets

    David Merkel
    25 Jan 2012 | 11:50 pm
    @The_Analyst does Hempton do Twitter? Bright guy. Jan 26, 2012 RE: @SoberLook It’s not a pledge, indeed, but it is an estimate.  The bond market has reacted quite strongly to the e… http://t.co/crpU3QpH Jan 26, 2012 RE: @SoberLook Does this post from Alea change your opinion at all? http://t.co/2hs1LTyN… http://t.co/p3Plmjnb Jan 26, 2012 MF Customers Face Long, and Possibly Fruitless, Slog http://t.co/MoMIalrc Law s/b modified: customer accts s/b top priority in broker BK Jan 26, 2012 Solar Cheaper Than Diesel Making India’s Mittal Believer http://t.co/ZW2ta2aB This is the right…

  • Redacted Version of the January 2012 FOMC Statement

    David Merkel
    25 Jan 2012 | 12:57 pm
    December 2011January 2012CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global growth.Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some slowing in global growth.No change.While indicators point to some improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated.While indicators point to some further improvement in overall labor…
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    Quoting the Crisis

  • "Although Euro area member states “will explore the options” to keep the [European Financial..."

    26 Jan 2012 | 10:48 am
    “Although Euro area member states “will explore the options” to keep the [European Financial Stability Facility]’s triple-A, we expect S&P will ultimately align the EFSF’s rating with that of France and Austria at AA . Indeed, in order to maintain the AAA rating of the EFSF, euro area policy makers would have to accept a reduction in the lending capacity of the EFSF by Eur169bn. Alternatively they would need to increase their guarantees significantly, something we believe unlikely at a time that the focus is shifting on the ESM [European Stability Mechanism].” - Jacques Caillou,…

  • "There are additional technical arguments that would favour more cautious IMF involvement. Mario..."

    26 Jan 2012 | 8:36 am
    “There are additional technical arguments that would favour more cautious IMF involvement. Mario Blejer, the former governor of the central bank of Argentina, argued recently that the IMF’s preferred creditor status could become a problem, as an IMF loan would automatically subordinate every other bondholder. The probability of a default on those defaultable bonds is thus significantly higher. Furthermore, the situation could become so acute that the IMF’s seniority might fail, which in turn would endanger its capacity to lend at low interest rates.” - Wolfgang Münchau in IMF should…

  • "The International Monetary Fund insists any deal must ensure Greece’s debt burden will be cut..."

    26 Jan 2012 | 6:24 am
    “The International Monetary Fund insists any deal must ensure Greece’s debt burden will be cut to 120 percent of gross domestic product by 2020 from 160 percent now, as agreed at an EU summit in October, and has warned that this is made more difficult by a worsening of Athens’ economic prospects.” - Greece needs sustainable debt by 2020: German finance minister - Yahoo! Finance

  • "Specifically, the Oliver Wyman study assumes that every dollar disallowed in pure proprietary..."

    26 Jan 2012 | 4:12 am
    “Specifically, the Oliver Wyman study assumes that every dollar disallowed in pure proprietary trading by banks will necessarily disappear from the market. But if money can still be made (without subsidies), the same trading should continue in another form. For example, the bank could spin off the trading activity and associated capital at a fair market price. Alternatively, the relevant trader – with valuable skills and experience – can raise outside capital and continue doing an equivalent version of his or her job. Now, however, these traders will bear more of their own downside…

  • "Implementation of the Basel III capital rules with regard to banks with insurance companies is a..."

    25 Jan 2012 | 10:48 am
    “Implementation of the Basel III capital rules with regard to banks with insurance companies is a particular point of friction, as tweaks backed by France and Brussels will boost the capital of Société Générale and Crédit Agricole by billions of euros – both owners of insurance companies. In December global regulators rebuffed France and overwhelmingly sided with the UK’s stricter interpretation. Yet the Franco-German statement will restate support to amend the rule, which prevents capital being double-counted towards the requirements of both the insurer and parent bank.” - Alex…
 
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    IMF Survey Magazine

  • Hungary Struggles as Growth Slows, Investors Retreat

    25 Jan 2012 | 8:05 am
    Hungary’s government needs to improve its economic governance and fiscal policy mix as the euro zone crisis creates uncertainty for one of Europe's key emerging markets, the IMF says in its latest annual assessment of the country's economy.

  • IMF Renews Support for Burundi's Economic Reforms

    24 Jan 2012 | 2:07 pm
    The IMF Executive Board approved a final $7.6 million payout to Burundi under its existing IMF loan, and also supported a new three-year loan to the central African country. Burundi’s new IMF-supported program aims to alleviate key bottlenecks to growth and foster macroeconomic stability.

  • IMF Marks Down Global Growth Forecast, Sees Risk on Rise

    24 Jan 2012 | 9:00 am
    With intensifying strains in the euro area weighing on the global outlook, the IMF sharply cuts its forecast for world growth to 3.3 percent this year, saying prospects have dimmed and risks to financial stability have increased.

  • Lagarde Calls For Urgent Action So 2012 Can Be ‘Year of Healing’

    23 Jan 2012 | 5:34 am
    IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde called on the international community to take urgent collective action to save the world economy from a downward spiral. Europe, which is at the center of global concerns, needs stronger growth, larger firewalls, and deeper integration, she said.

  • Sustained Growth for Africa, But Europe a Key Risk

    13 Jan 2012 | 1:31 pm
    The IMF’s outlook for Africa for 2012 remains for sustained economic growth. But IMF African Department’s Roger Nord says at the same time the risks have also increased because of uncertainty and turmoil in other parts of the world, notably in Europe.
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    SPG Trend Blog

  • The 15% Tax Rate is Now a Campaign Issue

    Morris Segall
    25 Jan 2012 | 8:43 pm
    We have repeatedly commented on the growing frustrations of the American public regarding increasing income disparity and inequality.  In our website article of March 23, 2009, ” I am Mad as Hell…, our blog video of October 11, 2011 addressing the “Occupy” movement and our website article of October 21, 2011 titled “The Angst and the Fury,” in which we wrote,” The American model of market-driven capitalism is not working for millions of people here and abroad and no one can understand why and what they can do to solve their predicaments.”  Further, “Compounding…

  • New Interview Available: SPG In The News!

    rduvall
    20 Jan 2012 | 1:59 pm
    If you happened to miss the interview, you may now listen online! Mr. Segall provides significant insight on economic and capital markets. Be sure to check out his interview with Ashford Radio.

  • Tune In

    rduvall
    10 Jan 2012 | 3:41 pm
    As we announced last month, Morris Segall will be interviewed on Ashford Talk Radio on January 18, 2012 at 2 P.M. EST. Mr. Segall will cover and answer questions on current events and outlooks spanning national and international economics, geopolitics, U.S. politics and international capital markets. You may listen to the interview and ask questions by signing on to www.ashfordradio.com, select Studio A and look for the interview with Morris Segall. The interview is also accessible by telephone, at 760-542-4100. This is an opportunity to hear our current thoughts on events impacting the…

  • Geopolitics: Why its so important

    Morris Segall
    13 Dec 2011 | 10:07 pm
    Since the spring of 2010 events outside the U.S. have been dominating our financial news and influencing our economy and capital markets. That spring the European debt difficulties moved to crisis stage with the imminent debt default of Greece. The financial crisis that began that spring has continued virtually unabated with a series of financial “band aids” that have staved off world financial disaster but done nothing to provide a permanent solution to Europe’s financial distress. In the meantime, the ratings agencies have downgraded both sovereign and bank credit through…

  • The November Employment Report: Not So Fast

    Morris Segall
    4 Dec 2011 | 10:25 pm
    The November employment report showed an increase of 120,000 new jobs, 140,000 in the private sector and a loss of 20,000 in the government sector. The latter continues the negative trend begun in the second half of 2008. Of import was the sharp drop in the unemployment rate from 9.0% (which has been the level over the past 12 months) to 8.6%, the lowest level since March, 2009. Additionally, prior months job gains in September and October were revised upward by a total of 72,000, moving the average monthly gain in job creation over the past three months up to 143,000 versus an average of…
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    24/7 Wall St.

  • FTC Sues To Block Omnicare/PharMerica Merger; Express/Medco Next? (OCR, PMC, MHS, ESRX, T)

    Administrator
    27 Jan 2012 | 4:31 pm
    The Federal Trade Commission is suing to block the merger between Omnicare, Inc. (NYSE: OCR) and Pharmerica Corporation (NYSE: PMC), where Omnicare is seeking to acquire the rival pharmacy provider PharMerica…. It makes you wonder how far behind a potential blockage of the Medco Health Solutions Inc. (NYSE: MHS) and Express Scripts Inc. (NASDAQ: ESRX) merger is.  [...] [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

  • 24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (BBY, SD, ALL, JCP, KIM, AEP, CVX, D, F, HON, PG, SOA, CPHD, INFI, NRGY, RVBD)

    Paul Ausick
    27 Jan 2012 | 3:07 pm
    All three major US indexes opened lower this morning following the report that US GDP grew by 2.8% in the fourth quarter. A rise of 3% was expected. Combined with the lack of a solution the Greek debt swap and lackluster earnings from several major US companies, the DJIA has remained down all day though [...] [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

  • Facebook IPO Rumors Growing Louder & Louder (GSVC, MSFT, MS, GS, DSI)

    Administrator
    27 Jan 2012 | 12:42 pm
    Facebook is now rumored to be filing its IPO paperwork as soon as next week.  The ‘rumor’ is coming out of a report from the Wall Street Journal that Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and/or Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) might get the lead role in the underwriting and that the value is being implied at [...] [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

  • Fitch Joins E.U. Downgrade Waves (EWK, IRE, EIRL, IRL, EWI, TI, EWP, STD)

    Administrator
    27 Jan 2012 | 12:30 pm
    Fitch has joined in on the European sovereign credit rating downgrades.  First it was S&P, but we might argue that this should have mostly been factored in already.  Is it a secret that the economies in Europe have been slowing and have more exposure these days?  Fitch is cutting six Eurozone sovereign ratings (on Rating Watch [...] [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

  • Dividend & Replacement Cycle, Discounting Ford’s Poor Earnings (F, GM)

    Administrator
    27 Jan 2012 | 11:53 am
    Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) is getting clocked today after earnings.  Some of the news should have been anticipated that Thai floods affected its supply chain in Asia because the company already telegraphed that. After taking a look at the start of the dividend and the trends in America and Asia, today may be a [...] [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
 
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    The Baseline Scenario

  • What Is Private Equity?

    James Kwak
    27 Jan 2012 | 11:57 am
    By James Kwak Recently, a lot of the political debate has been about whether private equity—and by extension Mitt Romney—is good or bad. The argument on one side is that private equity firms are vultures who destroy firms to make money; on the other, that private equity is just capitalism at work, creates value, and creates jobs. A private equity firm is an asset management company. It creates investment funds that raise most of their money from outside investors (pension funds, insurance companies, rich people, etc.), and then manages those funds. As opposed to a mutual fund, however,…

  • Breakthrough: Eric Schneiderman To Chair Mortgage Crisis Unit

    Simon Johnson
    24 Jan 2012 | 8:21 pm
    By Simon Johnson As reported first in the Huffington Post, President Obama is creating “a special unit to investigate misconduct and illegalities that contributed to both the financial collapse and the mortgage crisis”.  This will be chaired by Eric Schneiderman, the New York attorney general. For more background on why this makes sense and could represent a major policy breakthrough, please see this column: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71788.html.  

  • Should We Trust Paid Experts On The Volcker Rule?

    Simon Johnson
    22 Jan 2012 | 6:09 am
    By Simon Johnson On Wednesday morning, two subcommittees of the House Financial Services Committee held a joint hearing on the Volcker Rule.  The Rule, named for former Fed chair Paul Volcker, is aimed at restricting certain kinds of “proprietary trading” activities by big banks – with the goal of making it harder for these institutions to blow themselves up and inflict another deep recession on the rest of us. The Volcker Rule was passed as part of the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation (it is Section 619) and regulators are currently in the process of requesting comments on…

  • What Do Companies Do with Their Political Spending?

    James Kwak
    20 Jan 2012 | 10:00 am
    By James Kwak Whatever they’re doing, it doesn’t seem to be good for shareholders. That’s one conclusion of a new paper by John Coates, a Harvard law professor, which I discuss in today’s Atlantic column (which originally misdated the Citizens United decision, thanks to some faulty proof-reading by me). Coates compares firm valuations with levels of lobbying and contributions by corporate PACs and finds that, outside of heavily regulated industries where everyone lobbies heavily, political activity is associated with lower firm value—implying that it’s more…

  • Department of “Duh”

    James Kwak
    19 Jan 2012 | 10:19 am
    By James Kwak The Times has a story out today: Surprise, all the Republican candidates’ tax plans increase the national deficit! The numbers (reduction in 2015 tax revenues, from the Tax Policy Center): Romney: $600 billion Gingrich: $1.3 trillion (Late lamented) Perry: $1.0 trillion Santorum: $1.3 trillion I guess that makes Romney the “fiscally responsible” choice, at least among the Republicans. But President Obama’s tax proposals would only reduce 2015 tax revenues by $222 billion. (That’s $385 billion in Table S-4 less $163 billion in Table S-3.) Second…
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    Minyanville.com - All Articles

  • Minyanville's T3 Weekly Recap: Markets Rest, but Stock Specific Action Keeps Traders Busy

    27 Jan 2012 | 2:55 pm
    Stocks rallied in the afternoon trade to go narrowly positive for the week and only slightly down for the day after opening lower. The Nasdaq was the only index to finish in the green today closing 0.4% higher to finish off a strong week. Wednesday's breakout and Thursday's up open in the S&P looked set to spark a bigger rally than the methodical rise we've seen so far in 2012 but yesterday's intraday sell-off put the index back into the upper level consolidation. Today's action in the indices was quiet overall but we did see some good action in…

  • Book Excerpt: Gurus Are Right Until They're Wrong

    27 Jan 2012 | 2:35 pm
    The release of earnings reports in recent weeks has financial analysts and gurus pitching their ideas about which stocks investors should buy or sell. Goldman Sachs for example encouraged its clients to load up on shares of Apple (AAPL) despite the stock's price spike following a strong report and many financial news outlets (including this one) continually post stock picks from "celebrity" investors and traders. But how would Carl Richards author of The Behavior Gap: Simple Ways to Stop Doing Dumb Things With Money say you should respond to advice from financial…

  • Trading Radar: Can the Rally Stay on Track?

    27 Jan 2012 | 2:30 pm
    Equity markets have rallied this year and the major question plaguing the markets next week is whether or not they can continue the pace. News is expected out of Europe with Greece on the verge of a deal with private creditors to reduce its public debt holdings by half. Conflicting reports have indicated that a deal may be reached this weekend. Globally China reports its manufacturing data amidst debate as to whether or not the country is in for a hard or soft landing. Recent easing actions by the Chinese Central Bank have muted the growth slowdown in the Chinese

  • Daily Commodity Spot: Are Currencies Coming to a Near-Term Extreme?

    27 Jan 2012 | 2:25 pm
    The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each. Today's Highlight: Currencies extended their recent trending probing above recent highs while stocks fell to their range's lower-end. Have currencies gotten ahead of the game and are they coming into near-term extremes? Dollar Basket Mar Contract DX; (UUP) (UDN) Wednesday's tepid probe of fresh lows for the week was extended…

  • Buzz on the Street: Apple Back on Top

    27 Jan 2012 | 2:15 pm
    All day and every day some of the stock market's best and brightest traders and money managers share their ideas insights and analysis in real-time on Minyanville's Buzz & Banter. Below are some excerpts from this week's Buzz. Click here for a 14 day free trial. Note: Some links may require Buzz subscriptions. Monday January 23 2012 Starbooze Steve Smith News that Starbucks (SBUX) is planning on expanding its roll out of serving wine and beer at U.S. locations is the wrong recipe and strikes me as evidence that the company is once again straying from its core…
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    Howard Lindzon

  • The Facebook IPO…#HowMuchMoneyHaveYOULeftOnTheTable.DotCom

    Howard
    27 Jan 2012 | 2:58 pm
    So it’s really happening. Actually seeing the market react to the FBOOK IPO is really just a reminder to me of how I have underperformed. You too :) . I have bled social and mobile web and spent thousands of hours reading, writing, investing and entrepreneuring in the space. Right now though, all I can think about is …so much money left on the table. But, who has not left money on the table. It’s just part of the game…the business…life. Screw that…it hurts. In today’s version of the game of ‘I can’t believe how much money I left on the…

  • StockTwits Party in Soho – Woohoo!

    Howard
    27 Jan 2012 | 8:38 am
    Monday night at 7, StockTwits will gather for cold beers and eats at Antarctica in Soho. Please join us. Where:  287 Hudson Street (below Spring) When: Jan 30 @ 7PM

  • Google is Great….Apple is Magnificent…The ELEVEN Year Highs in The Nasdaq… and Momentum Monday!

    Howard
    26 Jan 2012 | 8:40 am
    Google is a great Company. Somehow I have still managed to lose money owning the stock the last few years. There are other great Companies…Intuit, Federal Express, Nike, Starbucks, Whole Foods, IBM to name a few. You should own great Companies. They are generally great stocks. You must prune and prune your portfolio until you own the great ones. Apple is a ‘Magnificent’ Company. Scott O’Neill of Investors Business Daily shared this chart that helps quantify the difference between great and magnificent: A couple of fun facts: 1. Apple earned more money in the last…

  • S&P Capital IQ Utilizing StockTwits Pro Beta

    Howard
    25 Jan 2012 | 8:49 am
    StockTwits is excited to announce that S&P Capital IQ has begun utlizing StockTwits Pro during our beta period. At Stocktwits, we have been working with analysts from all sectors of Wall Street to help build a financial publishing platform that is fast, compliant, fits within a professional’s workflow and offers the widest distribution. StockTwits Pro is a new service from StockTwits which provides market professionals with critical tools for communicating and interacting with a growing global audience of market participants and observers in a compliant, reliable and easy to use…

  • The ‘Swoosh’ of Nike – Marketing, Sales, Fashion, Technology, Data, and even Biotech!

    Howard
    20 Jan 2012 | 9:05 am
    The great Nike NKE is once again at all-time highs and you don’t really hear much about it with SOPA, The Golden Globes, Greece, Google and Apple in the headlines. I don’t own the stock, but it is about time and I want to. If you asked 100 random people in the street to describe Nike in the streets with one word/phrase…they would likely use ‘swoosh’ Just Do It’or shoes. Just loving the company for those basic things has earned investors from 1977 a 27,000 % return. The Company trades at just 2 times sales with $3 billion in cash. Sometimes the ‘big…
 
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    Information Arbitrage

  • Loyalty

    23 Jan 2012 | 10:29 pm
    One of the hardest dynamics I’ve had to manage throughout my career is loyalty. I, like most of my friends and people whom I respect, have feelings of faithfulness and devotion to those with whom we interact - partners, employees, investors, vendors, etc. However, there is a point beyond which loyalty can become costly - too costly, in fact - for historical relationships to remain as they are because of the negative impact on business. And when the problems spread into areas which can effect either individual or firm reputation, loyalty necessarily needs to take a back seat to pragmatism…

  • What's the big deal about Big Data?

    19 Jan 2012 | 11:43 am
    Every so often a term becomes so beloved by media that it moves from “instructive” to “hackneyed” to “worthless,” and Big Data is one of those terms. When I started IA Ventures in 2009, I used “Big Data” as a quick and easy way to describe the thematic focus of my fund. And it worked. People got that it implied tools for managing large amounts of data and applications for extracting value from that data. It also implied a high level of technical and product expertise with specific relevance for assessing, investing in and supporting these kinds of companies. And perhaps most…

  • The perils of "free riders"

    18 Jan 2012 | 8:46 pm
    Starting a company is, by its nature, an “all in” affair. You’ve either got the passion to run through walls, suffer painful failures and do unnatural things to achieve success or you don’t. And given the challenges of building a company and the tremendous amount of hard work and stress borne by the founders, they are generally focused on finding people who share a similar passion for the mission as they do. Building a successful company is the outgrowth of a team effort, not a series of individual efforts, as important connective tissue needs to be established across members of the…

  • Evolving the technical organization

    17 Jan 2012 | 6:56 pm
    You and a pal have what you think is a great idea. You hack some code together and build a simple prototype. You get some feedback, like what you’re hearing and decide to go all-in on a start-up. You build some more, maybe convince another jiujitsu developer to join your little cadre on the come, and build enough product to demonstrate a vision that is ready for some angel capital. You take in $500k that will enable you to hire a few more engineers to get a beta product shipped. With the angel money you hope to build early customer traction and achieve a series of key operating milestones…

  • Pacing

    9 Jan 2012 | 2:01 pm
    One of the most difficult issues I’ve grappled with during my transition from angel investor to venture capitalist is that of pacing. By pacing I mean the rate at which capital is deployed, particularly with respect to initial investments in companies. Every fund has the notion of an “investment period,” the span of time over which the portfolio is built. It is commonly between 2-5 years in duration, but varies substantially by fund size and investment approach, e.g., larger funds with more concentrated portfolios tend to have longer investment periods. It is important to note that this…
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    Economic Principals

  • Snow Day

    admin
    22 Jan 2012 | 2:24 pm
    There was a good little snow in Boston this weekend. As a result (that is, taking advantage of it), there is no Economic Principals this week .                              dw Share/Bookmark

  • Continuing Education

    admin
    15 Jan 2012 | 5:19 pm
    Modeling the passage of time is notoriously difficult in economics.  Living the passage of time is much easier.   Each year’s Nobel Prize turns up as a subject of discussion fifteen months later on the program of the meetings of the American Economic Association. Since one of the main functions of the meeting is the continuing education of the professoriate, it’s a highly desirable progression. So to celebrate the 2010 award to Peter Diamond, Dale Mortensen and Christopher Pissarides, for what is known as the DMP model of labor markets and unemployment levels, there were many sessions…

  • Let the Sun Shine In

    admin
    8 Jan 2012 | 12:39 pm
    Economic Principals is in Chicago at the four-day meetings of the American Economic Association. The single most interesting development was the adoption by the AEA’s Executive Committee of stringent new disclosure requirements for authors seeking to publish in the association’s seven journals, including the flagship American Economic Review. Three stages are involved. First, to journal editors, authors must identify interested parties from whom they have received sums totaling $10,000 or more over the previous three years, including consulting fees, retainers, grants, as well as in-kind…

  • Winter in New England

    admin
    1 Jan 2012 | 4:40 pm
    …In Silicon Valley, all the Sturm und Drang of 2011 seemed as relevant as the Cricket World Cup. High unemployment? Crippling debt? Not in Silicon Valley, where the fog burns off by noon and it’s an article of faith that talented, hard-working techies can change the world and reap unimaginable wealth in the process. “We live in a bubble, and I don’t mean a tech bubble or a valuation bubble. I mean a bubble as in our own little world,” says Google Chairman Eric Schmidt. “And what a world it is: Companies can’t hire people fast enough. Young people can work hard and make a…

  • A Traveling Companion

    admin
    25 Dec 2011 | 4:00 pm
    In “The Deadweight Loss of Christmas,” economist Joel Waldfogel years ago declared war on wasteful gift giving.  The best you can hope to do with a $10 gift, he argued, is to duplicate a $10 purchase the recipient would have made for him or herself.  Chances are you’ll overspend. He asked some undergraduates how they valued the gifts they had been given and concluded that between a tenth and a third of holiday spending is deadweight loss – that is, loss not offset by someone else’s gain. Better to give cash, or donate to charity, he concluded, especially if you don’t know the…
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    Marginal Revolution

  • *The Age of Austerity*

    Tyler Cowen
    28 Jan 2012 | 5:35 am
    That is the new book by Thomas Byrne Edsall, here is my WaPo review.  Overall I thought his treatment was not deep enough, and that too frequently he substituted caricature for insight.  Here is one excerpt from my piece: I wished for more discussion of the elderly. The two biggest government programs — Medicare and Social Security — are almost exclusively for them, with a significant chunk of Medicaid going to the elderly as well. By about 2030, America as a whole will have the age structure currently found in Florida. That means the elderly, who vote at above-average rates, are very…

  • The economics of role-playing games

    Tyler Cowen
    28 Jan 2012 | 2:57 am
    Here is an excellent and varied article on that topic, by Ryan Dancey.  Excerpt: The more segmented those brains became, the weaker the overall social network was. Every new game system, and every new variant to those systems, subdivided that network further, making it weaker. Between 1993 and 1999, the social network of the TRPG players had become seriously frayed. Even if you just looked at the network of Dungeons & Dragons players you could see this effect: People self-segmented into groups playing Basic D&D, 1st Edition, 2nd Edition, and within 2nd Edition into various Campaign…

  • *Little Serow*

    Tyler Cowen
    27 Jan 2012 | 7:16 pm
    Imagine northeastern Thai street food, Issan style, combined with the quality ingredients and overall standards of fine dining.  Right now it’s the best place in DC by a long ways and the best place this area has had in a long time.  The tastes are sharp, hot, sour, pungent, musty, and occasionally sweet.  The level of heat can be high.  You cannot choose your food.  Every course was a knockout, only $45 for a seven-course menu, no substitutions.  There’s nowhere else like it.  It is right next to Komi, and brought to you by the same people.  Remarkably, the cook is…

  • Update from the eurozone, the very very latest hottest news you can find

    Tyler Cowen
    27 Jan 2012 | 12:55 pm
    You will find the report here, and I thank John B. Bryant for the pointer.

  • “How deserving are the poor?”

    Tyler Cowen
    27 Jan 2012 | 10:46 am
    Next Wednesday night, Bryan Caplan will debate Karl Smith on that topic at GMU.  For background, here is a relevant short essay by Karl. From the perspective of “common sense morality,” the poor, in wealthy countries at least, are responsible for quite a bit of their difficulties.  I believe Bryan stresses this factor, although I am less sure how he treats common sense morality when he disagrees with it. Yet other perspectives must be brought to bear.  There is determinism, at differing levels, ranging from “it’s tough to come from a broken home” to…
 
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    Brad DeLong

  • Liveblogging World War II: January 28, 1942

    J. Bradford DeLong
    28 Jan 2012 | 4:08 am
    MY DAY by Eleanor Roosevelt: In spite of rather gray looking skies, I left Washington yesterday afternoon, hoping to land in New York about 6:45. But we came down at an unfamiliar airport, and I found we were in Philadelphia and the flight was cancelled. I drove to the station and caught a train almost immediately and reached my house at 9:15, so I might just as well have taken a 5:00 o'clock train out of Washington. I talked to some Army boys on the way over, who had just had their orders. One youngster in a sailor's uniform sat just a few seats ahead of me. When he turned around, I felt…

  • Twitterstorm delong: January 27, 2012

    J. Bradford DeLong
    27 Jan 2012 | 9:42 pm
    delong J. Bradford DeLong Carried Interest Tax Break Exposes Mitt Romney Electability Myth blogs.investors.com/capitalhill/in… 7 minutes ago paullewismoney Paul Lewis Always thought it strange that you motivate rich by throwing money at them, but you motivate poor by taking money away. #hester 19 hours ago Retweeted by delong davidfrum davidfrum Associates confirm to WashPo what was already obvious: Ron Paul has lied & lied about his racist newsletters http://tinyurl.com/8xc7fqg 11 hours ago Retweeted by delong delong J. Bradford DeLong The Debate on Private Equity in 1989, Peter Róna…

  • Econ 1: Spring 2012: U.C. Berkeley: Problem Set 2

    J. Bradford DeLong
    27 Jan 2012 | 8:05 pm
    Due at the start of section following the Monday, February 6 lecture: Problem Set 2 Problem Set 2: Demand and Supply; Market Equilibrium J. Bradford DeLong/Lanwei Yang/etc. Econ 1: Spring 2012: U.C. Berkeley Due at first section after Monday, February 6 lecture Suppose that there are four people in the economy who demand yoga lessons: Kautilya (a government economist) with an income of $1000/week, Thasuka Witko (a herder and politician) with an income of $500/week, Buffy Summers (a student at U.C. Sunnydale) with an income of $300/week, and Sappho (a poet) with an income of $600/week.

  • Econ 1: U.C. Berkeley: Spring 2012: I Am Sick of Typing in the Long URL for the bspace Website...

    J. Bradford DeLong
    27 Jan 2012 | 3:16 pm
    …so here is a shorter one: http://tinyurl.com/delong-Econ1Sp12

  • What Is the Most Popular TV Show Among 18 Year Old Californians Today?

    J. Bradford DeLong
    27 Jan 2012 | 2:14 pm
    I need examples for my Econ 1 class. Dharma and Greg, Buffy, and Star Trek will no longer cut it...
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    Dani Rodrik's weblog

  • "Beggar-thy-neighbor" versus "beggar-thyself" policies

    Dani Rodrik
    18 Jan 2012 | 9:22 am
    There is an important difference between domestic economic policies that create benefits by imposing costs on other nations ("beggar-thy-neighbor policies") and those whose economic costs are borne primarily at home though they might affect others as well ("beggar-thyself policies"). Beggar-thy-neighbor policies need to be regulated at the international level because a nation, left to its own devices, has the incentive to pursue zero-sum policies at the expense of others. This is the strongest argument for subjecting China’s currency policies or large macroeconomic…

  • Gülenists will get you, one way or another

    Dani Rodrik
    22 Dec 2011 | 9:47 pm
    This time the Gülenists were caught red-handed.  In March 2009, a non-commissioned officer (NCO) serving on an air force base in the central Turkish town of Kayseri confessed to planting forged documents on a military computer, on instructions from his Gülenist mentor.  His detailed account provides a rare glimpse of how Gülenists use their network to infiltrate the military and frame targeted officers with fabricated material.  Equally important, the aftermath of the episode shows how Gülenists are able to manipulate the judiciary to cover up their tracks and turn the…

  • An article in Dutch

    Dani Rodrik
    25 Nov 2011 | 2:58 pm
    This is an article in Dutch about the Globalization Paradox and my views on the eurozone crisis. The picture is horrible, but I am told the writeup is pretty good.

  • Oh, where have all the competent forgers gone?

    Dani Rodrik
    23 Nov 2011 | 11:20 am
    Pity the mafia that is staging what is probably the most significant political trial in modern Turkey’s history – a show trial in which more than three hundred Turkish military officers stand accused of plotting a military coup back in 2003.  Since early 2010, the mafia has produced three different batches of evidence to put the defendants behind bars.  Alas, each batch contains such obvious signs of forgery that they seem rather the handiwork of a bunch of crooked Keystone Kops.  Naturally the only thing that keeps the trial going is the heavy support of the AKP…

  • Europe's next nightmare

    Dani Rodrik
    9 Nov 2011 | 9:22 am
    As if the economic ramifications of a full-blown Greek default were not terrifying enough, the political consequences could be far worse. A chaotic eurozone breakup would cause irreparable damage to the European integration project, the central pillar of Europe’s political stability since World War II. It would destabilize not only the highly-indebted European periphery, but also core countries like France and Germany, which have been the architects of that project. Read the rest here.
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    bank-o-meter.com

  • January, Thursday 26, 2012

    Sinclair Noe
    26 Jan 2012 | 6:29 pm
    DOW – 22 = 12,734SPX – 7 =1318NAS – 13 = 280510 YR YLD -.08 = 1.93OIL +.48 = 99.88GOLD + 9.70 = 1721.50SILV +.20 = 33.57PLAT + 24.00 = 1614.00Remember back before the holidays I told you the European Central Bank was following the Federal Reserve's playbook?  The ECB was going to loan the Euro-banks plenty of capital, which would allow the big Euro-banks to report adequate capital ratios when they file their annual reports – which is a way of saying the banks get a big bailout, and then the banks could buy sovereign bonds. And the bottom line is they were not going to allow a…

  • January, Thursday 25, 2012

    Sinclair Noe
    26 Jan 2012 | 1:04 am
    DOW +81 = 12,756SPX + 11 =1326NAS + 31 = 281810 YR YLD -.06 = 2.01OIL +.79 = 99.74GOLD  + 44.40 = 1711.80SILV + 1.22 = 33.37PLAT + 35.00 = 1585.00The Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged. That is the biggest non-news event of the day, but wait, there's more! The Fed wrapped up their FOMC meeting with a new twist, they issued an official inflation target of 2 percent and they published individual policymakers' forecasts for the Fed funds rate. A 2 percent target for inflation isn't really new, and it wasn't really on target because the rate for 2011 was 3 percent. The…

  • January, Tuesday 24, 2012

    Sinclair Noe
    25 Jan 2012 | 1:18 am
    DOW – 33 = 12,675SPX – 1 = 1314NAS + 2 = 278610 YR YLD unch = 2.06%OIL -.37 = 99.21GOLD -9.90 =1666.40SILV -.30 = 32.15PLAT -11.00 = 1554.00Greece's private creditors are negotiating how much of a discount they will take on Greek bonds. Under the agreement drawn up in October, bondholders would take a 50 percent write-down on the notional value of their Greek holdings; in other words, they would swap their bonds for new bonds worth 50 cents on the dollar. Last week the two sides were converging on an agreement that would see private creditors accepting a real loss of 65 to 70 percent and…

  • January, Monday 23, 2012

    Sinclair Noe
    24 Jan 2012 | 1:21 am
    DOW – 11 = 12,708SPX + 0.6 = 1316  NAS – 2 = 278410 YR YLD +.04 = 2.07%OIL + 1.61 = 99.94GOLD + 9.30 = 1677.30SILV + .15 = 32.45PLAT +25.00 = 1567.00The stock market is off to its best start in a good 15 years. Stock market sectors leading the rally include:materials, homebuilders, semiconductors, and financials. The 50 worst performing stocks in 2011 are up over 10% so far this year; the 50 best are up a mere 2%. Bonds are off to their worst start since 2003 with the 10-year note yield back up to 2%. The S&P 500 is now up 20% from the early October low and just 3.5% away from…

  • January, Friday 20, 2012

    Sinclair Noe
    20 Jan 2012 | 8:20 pm
    DOW +96 = 12,720SPX +1 = 1315NAS -1 = 278610 YR YLD +.06 = 2.03%OIL -2.19 = 98.19GOLD + 10.30 = 1668.00SILV +1.56 = 32.30PLAT +11.00 = 1541.00Today, Wall Street was just muddling along. GE and Google posted weak earnings. The Dow advanced and the broader market were flat. Still, stocks have posted three weeks of gains to start the New Year on weak volume. Nobody wants to believe the rally; maybe they've decided it's safer to sit it out. Stocks may muddle higher but it is difficult to sustain gains on light volume and it leaves the market vulnerable to selling pressure.Nihil sub sole novum.
 
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    About.com US Economy

  • Economy Grew at Fastest Rate in 1.5 Years

    27 Jan 2012 | 2:08 pm
    Last year ended on an optimistic note, as GDP growth inched up to 2.8% in the fourth quarter (October-December). This was the best quarter in a year and a half, and is in the healthy range of 2-3%.   However, growth for the year was only 1.7%, according to the BEA report. Neither growth rate is enough to put much of a dent in the nation's 8.5% unemployment rate....Read Full Post

  • Foreclosures Drop in 2011, Will Rebound in 2012

    24 Jan 2012 | 7:10 am
    In 2011, foreclosures fell to the lowest level since the recession. "Only" 1.9 million homes received foreclosure filings last year, compared to more than 2.7 million each in 2010 and 2009. According to foreclosures may rise 25% in 2012, as banks work through the shadow inventory they accumulated during the "robo-signing" investigation. (Source: Bloomberg, "Home Seizures May Jump 25% This Year as U.S. Foreclosures Resume," January 17, 2012)...Read Full Post

  • No Inflation Is Good Inflation

    19 Jan 2012 | 9:49 am
    The Consumer Price Index report for December was exactly zero -- just like it was in November. This means that price decreases in  gas, oil and automobiles offset slight prices increases in everything else during the month....Read Full Post

  • December Retail Sales Reports Mixed

    16 Jan 2012 | 11:12 am
    Holiday shopping sales didn't come in as merry as stores would have liked. The Commerce Department reported that December's retail sales report was $400.6 billion, up barely .1% from November. Heavy discounting probably ate into revenues at electronics and appliance stores, where sales dropped 3.9%. (Source: U.S. Commerce Dept, "U.S. Retail Sales," January 15, 2012...Read Full Post

  • The Economy in 2012

    12 Jan 2012 | 11:23 am
    What's the outlook for the economy in 2012? First, the world will not end in 2012, despite reports to the contrary. Second, most economic reports are encouraging. Third, there are some structural problems in the global economy that need to be addressed. Until they are, they could cause the fourth economic trend in 2012, which is volatility. However, the year will probably end on a higher note than it began -- just like every year has since the financial crisis of 2008. Here's why:...Read Full Post
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    Economix

  • The Role of Austerity

    By DAVID LEONHARDT
    27 Jan 2012 | 3:10 pm
    Government spending helped mitigate the recession, but its decline has been a significant drag on growth for more than a year now.

  • The Quiet Driver of Economic Growth: Exports

    By BINYAMIN APPELBAUM
    27 Jan 2012 | 10:53 am
    Exports accounted for almost 14 percent of gross domestic product in 2011, the largest share since at least 1929.

  • How Readers Cut the Pentagon Budget

    By DAVID LEONHARDT
    27 Jan 2012 | 10:30 am
    Among the more than 12,000 who used an interactive calculator, reducing troop levels in Europe and Asia was the most popular choice, and many saw potential administrative savings.

  • Do Big-Time Sports Mean Big-Time Support for Universities?

    By JUDITH SCOTT-CLAYTON
    27 Jan 2012 | 5:00 am
    Even if most major athletic programs make little if any net revenue, their benefit to universities' bottom lines can be quantified in many ways, an economist writes.

  • Latinos on the Economy: Hard Hit but Hopeful

    By JULIA PRESTON
    26 Jan 2012 | 3:27 pm
    Latinos are keenly aware that they have fared worse than other groups in the economic downturn, a Pew survey found, but they remain surprisingly optimistic that things will improve for them.
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    iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

  • Lagarde in Davos: How to Avoid an Economic Deep Freeze

    iMFdirect
    27 Jan 2012 | 12:47 pm
    By iMFdirect Amid the heaviest snowfall in Davos for decades, IMF chief Christine Lagarde has been making her case for urgent action to resolve the eurozone crisis, which is at the center of current global economic concerns. The Fund recently sharply revised downward its forecast for global economic growth and in a speech in Berlin Lagarde mapped a way forward. Policy priorities Lagarde has taken her messages to the Alpine resort in Switzerland, where global leaders are gathered for the 42nd Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum. At the top of the agenda is the need to find and…

  • How to Exit the Danger Zone: IMF Update on Global Financial Stability

    iMFdirect
    24 Jan 2012 | 4:07 pm
    By José Viñals (Versions in  عربي, 中文, Español, Français, Русский, 日本語) Since September of last year, risks to global financial stability have deepened, notably in the euro area. However, over the past few weeks, markets have been encouraged by measures to provide liquidity to banks and sovereigns in the euro area. This recent improvement should not be taken for granted, as some sovereign debt markets remain under stress, and as bank funding markets are on life support from the European Central Bank (ECB). Main sources of risk Many of the root causes of the…

  • Driving the Global Economy with the Brakes On

    iMFdirect
    24 Jan 2012 | 11:58 am
    By Olivier Blanchard (Versions in  عربي, 中文, Español, Français, Русский, 日本語) After the speech by the IMF’s Managing Director in Berlin yesterday, my main messages on the global outlook will not surprise you. Starting with the bad news–the world recovery, which was weak in the first place, is in danger of stalling. The epicenter of the danger is Europe, but the rest of the world is increasingly affected. There is an even greater danger, namely that the European crisis intensifies. In this case, the world could be plunged into another recession. Turning to…

  • Meeting the Employment Challenge in the GCC

    iMFdirect
    19 Jan 2012 | 10:51 am
    By Masood Ahmed (Version in عربي) The issue of how to create more jobs is high on the minds of policymakers everywhere. The economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—are no exception. By many measures, these economies are doing very well. Abundant oil and gas reserves are producing large budget and external surpluses, growth is up, and considerable strides have been made on social indicators. Yet, economic activity is dominated by the oil/gas sector and—given that many GCC countries have…

  • Remembering Michael Mussa

    iMFdirect
    17 Jan 2012 | 5:31 am
    Sad to hear about the death of Michael Mussa, the IMF’s witty and trenchant former chief economist for nearly a decade, who resigned in 2001. He was 67. Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF,  made the following statement. The Wall Street Journal says the former Chicago University professor did not shy away from controversy. The Washington Post said he helped shape the IMF’s responses to financial crises in the 1990s. Later, as a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, Mussa was well known for his semiannual forecasts of global economic growth, conveyed with tough…
 
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    Charter Cities - Blog

  • Paul's Talk at ZURICH.MINDS

    Brandon Fuller
    26 Jan 2012 | 9:24 am
    At the December 2011 gathering of ZURICH.MINDS, Paul presented a framework for thinking about human progress. He began by pointing out that an idea has a value that is proportional to the number of people who use it, and that our ability to share ideas is therefore the driving force behind economic growth, globalization, and urbanization. But in thinking about the discovery of new ideas, Paul encouraged the audience to think about not just new technologies but also new rules — the laws and norms that govern human interaction. He stressed that it is the coevolution of technologies and rules,…

  • The Court System in the RED

    Brandon Fuller
    23 Dec 2011 | 10:48 am
    The government of Honduras recently passed a constitutional statute that defines the governance structure for a new special reform zone, known locally as la Región Especial de Desarrollo (RED). The statute stipulates that the courts in the RED are independent from the existing courts in Honduras. Judicial nominees in the RED will be subject to the approval of the Honduran National Congress, but the RED government is free to draw on judicial nominees from all over the world, giving it access to a relatively deep pool of judicial talent. This is the approach that China used when it resumed…

  • The Economist on Honduran Efforts to Establish a Reform Zone

    Brandon Fuller
    19 Dec 2011 | 5:58 pm
    The Economist magazine recently ran a piece on the Honduran government’s efforts to establish a city-scale reform zone, or la Región Especial de Desarrollo (RED). The article provides an excellent overview of the progress that the Honduran government has made to date. Below, you’ll find responses to a few of the questions we’ve received in response to the article. Q: Will the RED rely exclusively on private security? A: Though the RED has the option to make use of private security, policing services will not come exclusively or even primarily from private entities. The RED government…

  • President Lobo Announces Transparency Commission

    Brandon Fuller
    13 Dec 2011 | 7:44 pm
    The Honduran government, led by President Porfirio Lobo and Congressional President Juan Orlando Hernandez, is working to establish a reform zone based in part on the charter cities concept. In July, the Honduran National Congress passed a constitutional statute that defines the governance structure for la Región Especial de Desarrollo (RED), or the Special Development Region. The Honduran Congress identified as a key feature of this governance structure a new entity known as the Transparency Commission. As its name suggests, the Commission plays an important role in ensuring that governance…

  • Charter Cities Update: Honduras

    Brandon Fuller
    8 Dec 2011 | 9:17 pm
    For the past few months, Charter Cities has been quietly advising the government of Honduras as it works to establish a new city-scale reform zone, known locally as la Región Especial de Desarrollo (RED). Over the next couple of weeks, we hope to post some updates on the progress in Honduras. In the meantime, please have a look at www.red.hn, a website started by a Presidential committee known as CORED. The site has links to relevant legislation as well as updates on the project.
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    The Principled Achiever

  • Global perspectives on risk from some good minds

    Clark Abrahams
    18 Jan 2012 | 4:01 pm
    There were many different perspectives and ideas shared at the recent Ri$kMinds event. There were numerous notable quotes from regulatory and banking executives, such as:  Concerning financial innovation: "We need a more formal process to distinguish healthy innovation versus arbitrage" -- Jose Maria Roldan, Banco De Espana Concerning safety & [...]

  • Quality information for the Board

    Clark Abrahams
    14 Oct 2011 | 4:15 pm
    Boards of Directors certainly do care about the quality of the information they receive from the business.  They must have confidence that comes from knowing that the information managers provide to them has been sourced and delivered through a reliable, validated, and easily traceable process.  Accuracy of the information is [...]

  • Risk of investment products in the news -- new risk framework can help!

    Clark Abrahams
    4 Sep 2011 | 10:34 pm
    In my July 12 post, I explained how consistent and superior business decision making stems from sourcing and assembling all relevant information, coupled with the best analytics available. This certainly applies to everything from deciding which parts of your business to grow, how much to charge for your products, how [...]

  • Reputation is key to sustainable financial success

    Clark Abrahams
    13 Aug 2011 | 1:21 pm
    In my July 12 post, I noted that this blog is all about making better decisions.  Consistent and superior business decision making stems from sourcing and assembling all relevant information, coupled with the best analytics available.  I noted five areas of relevance in making decisions, namely: 1.  Your Corporate Brand 2.  Your Financial [...]

  • GRC, Business Strategy, and the Board

    Clark Abrahams
    7 Aug 2011 | 9:50 pm
    In my last post, I made reference to the NACD Key Agreed Principles, and focused on the first of those principles, namely Board responsibility for governance.  I  emphasized appropriate structure and practices, which necessarily vary from one company to another.  In this post we examine strategy, which is covered in [...]
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    Bluematter.

  • Schools test often to teach inequality and hierarchy

    datacharmer
    23 Jan 2012 | 2:00 am
    At school, our kids are rated and ranked far more often than most adults will tolerate, even though this actually slows their learning! It seems that modern schools function in part to help humans overcome their (genetically and culturally) inherited aversions to hierarchy and dominance. Modern workplaces require workers who are far more accepting than are foragers of being told what to do when, and of being explicitly ranked, and our schools prepare kids to accept this more primate-like environment. The evidence strongly suggests that students learn better when they are not graded and…

  • Gelman galore

    datacharmer
    22 Jan 2012 | 11:13 am
    Clearing Out My Closet season continues, this time with a number of interesting posts from Andrew Gelman: Uh.. Um.. I [Mark Liberman] took a quick look at demographic variation in the frequency of the filled pauses conventionally written as “uh” and “um”. Marginal vs marginal To me, the most interesting bit of terminological confusion is that the word “marginal” has opposite meanings in statistics and economics. In statistics, the margin (as in “marginal distribution”) is the average or, in mathematical terms, the integral. In economics, the margin (as in “marginal cost”)…

  • If you can prioritise well you are probably not very creative

    datacharmer
    21 Jan 2012 | 5:17 pm
    In a 2003 study at Harvard, Dr. Carson and other researchers tested students’ ability to tune out irrelevant information when exposed to a barrage of stimuli. The more creative the students were thought to be, determined by a questionnaire on past achievements, the more trouble they had ignoring the unwanted data. A reduced ability to filter and set priorities, the scientists concluded, could contribute to original thinking. The NY Times has more. I'm clearing out my inbox of its 400+ emails, and many of these relate to stuff I wanted to post here - so expect a regular stream of content.

  • ASCII 3D

    datacharmer
    17 Jan 2012 | 1:51 pm
    OK, this is geeky - but love it. Source.

  • A Mosque (1986)

    datacharmer
    29 Dec 2011 | 6:16 am
    A mosque is where Muslim people learn, read and pray.Where I go with my little brothers we have to pay 2 pounds each week for learning everyday.We learn the Koran and how to pray.We have to go to everyday,if we don't we are punished.We must take an excuse note to say why we didn't come.I go in a van to the mosque Then I go to a big room to learn how to pray.We stay for one hour.Each week there is a test if you pass you go to another group for lessons.After the test you go to your own class where the register is taken.Then you must read to your teacher for one hour,if you make one mistake you…
 
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    EconomicPolicyJournal.com

  • HOT: Pentagon to Send Floating Base to Mideast for Use by Commandos

    27 Jan 2012 | 6:51 pm
    The U.S. government is definitely looking for trouble. WaPo reports that the Pentagon is rushing to send a large floating base for commando teams to the Middle East. In response to requests from the U.S. Central Command, which oversees military operations in the Middle East, the Navy is converting an aging warship it had planned to decommission into a makeshift staging base for the commandos.

  • "Capitalism is Making Humanity Obsolete"

    27 Jan 2012 | 4:11 pm
    I continue to be absolutely amazed at how far the World Economic Forum discussion about "capitalism" advances. The BBC has aired an interview with Marxist historian Eric Hobsbawm, who in the tradition of the other discussants, fails to make a clear distinction between capitalism and government intervention on behalf of insider operators. Adbusters features the interview with the subtitle, "

  • Why Iran Won't Back Down and When Might War Between the U.S. and Iran Occur?

    27 Jan 2012 | 3:01 pm
    by Michael S. Rozeff Which state, the U.S. or Iran, more likely wants a war with the other? It's the side that thinks it benefits from such a war. That side is the U.S. If this war begins, it will be entirely because the U.S. wants it and has decided that the time is right to instigate it or elicit actions from Iran that provide excuses for instigating it. Any U.S.-Iran war will be entirely the

  • March Madness: Bernanke versus Rothbard, Salerno and Thornton

    27 Jan 2012 | 2:09 pm
    The Federal Reserve Board has just announced that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver a series of lectures aimed at college students. Beginning on March 20, he will lead four classes on "The Federal Reserve and its Role in Today's Economy" as part of a course offered to undergraduates at the George Washington University School of Business. The class will feature a variety of speakers who

  • HOT: Facebook to File IPO Papers Next Week

    27 Jan 2012 | 1:17 pm
    Developing... They wouldn't be doing this now if Bennie wasn't printing a lot of money.  According to WSJ, Facebook Inc. could file papers for an initial public offering as early as next week and is close to picking Morgan Stanley as the lead underwriter for its IPO, said people familiar with the matter.
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    Visualizing Economics

  • Comparing Income, Corporate, Capital Gains Tax Rates: 1916-2011

    Catherine Mulbrandon
    23 Jan 2012 | 6:48 pm
    Due to popular demand, I have updated my 2010 graph on top marginal tax rates. In addition, during this year’s tax season, I will be selling copies of my Top Marginal Tax Rates graph as a tabloid size 11″x17″ poster. If you would like to be notified when this poster is available please enter your email below!   FYI, your marginal tax rate is the rate you pay on the “last dollar” you earn; but when you view the taxes you paid as a percentage of your income, your effective tax rate is less than your marginal rate, especially after you take into account the…

  • The Great Divergence In Pictures: A visual guide to income inequality. [Slate]

    Catherine Mulbrandon
    12 Jan 2012 | 3:26 pm
    First published in Slate to accompany an article written by Tim Noah, I created these graphs about income inequality covering the changes in income inequality as well as looking at changes in race, gender, education, taxes and political party in the White House. Get notified when "An Illustrated Guide to Income" is ready! Learn more... Feed enhanced by Better Feed from Ozh

  • Job Growth: Which states are more competitive?

    Catherine Mulbrandon
    9 Dec 2011 | 12:29 pm
    I worked with Economic Modeling Specialists on a data graphic that looks to distinguish between growth from large national forces vs. local competitive advantages within a state. Learn more about the data and analysis at the EMSI Blog.       Get notified when "An Illustrated Guide to Income" is ready! Learn more... Feed enhanced by Better Feed from Ozh

  • The Top 0.01% and Top 1%’s Income Share: 2008

    Catherine Mulbrandon
    24 Oct 2011 | 10:00 pm
    This one of the graphics that I presented recently at The Big Picture conference here in New York City. It is from a project I am currently working on called An Illustrated Guide to Income in the United States: a collection of infographics, maps and charts looking at the different incomes and occupations in the United States. Recently the conversation in the news has been about the top 1%, however, in this graphic I show the breakdown of personal income by different percentiles, including the top 0.01% (i.e. income above $9 million). I have used 10,000 “people” to…

  • Pay off your credit card debt

    Catherine Mulbrandon
    14 Aug 2011 | 5:00 pm
    A simple example showing what happens when you only pay the minimun monthly payment on your credit card debt. I submitted this to Longshot magazine’s issue on Debt but my graphic didn’t make it in but you can take a look at the other submissions on their site. Get notified when "An Illustrated Guide to Income" is ready! Learn more... Feed enhanced by Better Feed from Ozh
 
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    Broad Oak Blog

  • Steve Keen: Dow to drop 35%, housing 40%?

    3 Jan 2012 | 5:32 am
    Australian economist Steve Keen has previously argued that it is far more beneficial to bail out consumers than the banks, and now has made it part of a manifesto for avoiding a worse-than-the-1930s economic depression.As part of his analysis, he looks at the Dow:... and the US housing market:If his exponential trend lines are correct, stocks will have to fall by a further 35% and houses 40%, ignoring overshoot.If that seems overly pessimistic, consider James Howard Kunstler, who revisits his "Dow 4,000" mantra and modifies it to 1,000 by 2014. Unbelievable? Only if you think tomorrow will be…

  • Foreign demand to support the price of gold?

    1 Jan 2012 | 10:30 am
    I start with an entertaining and informative investor newsletter: David Collum's annual personal investment report, which is worth reading in full. The prose is very sparky and the scorn and indignation laid on good and thick.For the impatient, I can report that he begins by describing his own asset allocation:With rebalancing achieved only by directing my savings, I changed nothing in my portfolio year over year. The total portfolio as of 12/31/11 is as follows:Precious Metals et al.: 53% Energy: 14% Cash Equiv (short duration): 30% Other: 3%... which tells you where he stands in the…

  • China is in the same debt boat as the rest of us

    20 Dec 2011 | 2:15 am
    Robert Wenzel reports a Roubini tweet that the real government debt-to-GDP ratio in China is 80%.INVESTMENT DISCLOSURE: None. Still in cash (and index-linked National Savings Certificates), and missing all those day-trading opportunities.DISCLAIMER: Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content.

  • Trust is breaking down wholesale, hoarding has begun - UPDATED 02 Jan 2012

    18 Dec 2011 | 12:24 pm
    The following started off on my grumble outlet Bearwatch, but looks like it's getting more serious:“You can’t trust anybody and the entire system is collapsing. What’s the takeaway from this? It’s to make sure you have every penny in your pocket.”Gerald Celente, Trends Research Institute founder, following the disappearance of his six-figure holdings at MF Global shortly before he was due to take delivery of physical gold. More here.Update: and the chorus swells..."It is up to you to decide how much you're willing to risk losing to a crook. If the answer is "none" or you cannot…

  • The bank runs are starting

    13 Dec 2011 | 12:24 am
    "Latvia's largest bank scrambled Monday to head off a run among depositors who were gripped by rumours of the bank's imminent ruin.Weekend rumours that Swedbank was facing legal and liquidity problems in Estonia and Sweden sent thousands of Latvians to bank machines on Sunday, with some lines reaching as many as 50 people.""... the outflow of funds from Greek bank accounts has been accelerating rapidly. At the start of 2010, savings and time deposits held by private households in Greece totalled €237.7 billion -- by the end of 2011, they had fallen by €49 billion. Since then, the decline…
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    Carl Futia

  • Guesstimates on January 27, 2012

    27 Jan 2012 | 8:05 am
    March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 12990-1314. A drop of 40-50 points is underway. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370. QQQ: Headed for 63. TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%. Euro-US Dollar: The rally from 1.2623 should continue to 1.3540 before the market turns down once more. Meantime support is at 1.2940. The Fed announcement has made the market reassess its estimate of likely interest rate differentials…

  • Guesstimates on January 26, 2012

    26 Jan 2012 | 8:00 am
    March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1320-1333. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370. QQQ: Now headed for 63. TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%. Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.2620 has produced a big rally. It should continue to 1.3540 before the market turns down once more. A move to 1.2400 will then be in the cards. The Fed announcement yesterday has made the market reassess its estimate of likely interest rate…

  • Attention Traders

    25 Jan 2012 | 2:30 pm
    Are you a day trader or a swing trader or both? Since my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime started in September of 2010 the blog's day trading account is up 88.0% based on one contract trades in the e-mini S&P futures in a $10,000 account.Want to find out how I calculate my range estimates every day? Would you like to learn the rules I use to identify the market's trend and estimate support and resistance levels? How about the chance to read my ongoing series of posts on the technique of swing trading? You can do all this plus watch my real time trades for less than $25 per month! Check…

  • Fed Failure

    25 Jan 2012 | 1:40 pm
    Today at 12:30 pm the Fed announced that it expected short term interest rates to stay near zero for the next two years.Very low short term interest rates are always associated with weak economic activity. So the Fed is telling us that it expects to fail. It has announced that it believes all of its efforts during the past two years to stimulate the economy will come to naught.Of course the Fed may be wrong about this. Indeed, its economic forecasting record is no better than anyone else's despite the enormous resources it devotes to such activity. But the sad thing is that the US central…

  • Headed higher

    25 Jan 2012 | 10:25 am
    Here is a daily bar chart showing trading in the March '12 e-minis going back to the October 4, 2011 low. I still think the market is headed higher. A rally from the November 25 low which matches the size of the initial 221 point rally off of the October low would carry the ES to 1370 or so, just about the level of the May 2011 top (blue dash rectangles).The 5, 10, and 20 day advancing issues oscillators on my chart page are overbought and showing bearish divergences. At the same time the 5 day moving average of the CBOE equity put-call ratio (also on my chart page) is at its lowest level in…
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    CARPE DIEM

  • 8 Amazing Artisan Videos Everyone Should Watch

    27 Jan 2012 | 5:11 pm
    From the MakeUseOf.com website:"Have you ever watched a masterful expert perform their work with such skill and passion that you had no choice but to watch and admire in awe? As I scour the Internet from day to day, I run into videos of these masters every once in a while. And every time, I can’t help but stare in wonder and respect.An artisan is a craftsman who is a master of their field. Here is a collection of some of the most interesting and mesmerizing videos of artisans who take immense pride in their work and strive to be the best at what they do (watch the master tea server…

  • Modern Automotive Manufacturing

    27 Jan 2012 | 1:57 pm
    Impressive video of a state-of-the-art VW car factory in Germany, and this February 2009 video is now almost three years old!

  • What Obama Won't Mention Today in Michigan: Campus Has 53% More Administrators Than Faculty

    27 Jan 2012 | 8:54 am
    From an open letter to President Obama on December 16, 2011 from University of Michigan President Mary Sue Coleman:"Higher education is a public good currently lacking public support. There is no stronger trigger for rising costs at public universities and colleges than declining state support." According to the Washington Post, "President Barack Obama will announce a plan to shift some federal dollars away from colleges and universities that don’t control tuition costs and new competitions in higher education to encourage efficiency as part of an effort to contain soaring college costs.

  • Interesting Fact of the Day

    26 Jan 2012 | 7:40 pm
    The jobless rate for the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy was below the national jobless rate for each of the last seven months of 2011 from June through December.  That reversed a period from October 2008 to May 2011 when the manufacturing jobless rate was equal to or higher than the national average rate for 32 consecutive months.  The gap during that period was at its highest in April 2009 when the manufacturing jobless rate was almost 4 points higher at 12.4% than the national average rate of 8.6%.  There has never been any comparable 7-month period going back to…

  • U.S. Manufacturing Already Has Record Profits and Is Doing Quite Well Without Any Government Help

    26 Jan 2012 | 2:52 pm
    Obama at the SOTU: "If you’re an American manufacturer, you should get a bigger tax cut. If you’re a high-tech manufacturer, we should double the tax deduction you get for making products here. And if you want to relocate in a community that was hit hard when a factory left town, you should get help financing a new plant, equipment, or training for new workers." In December, I posted about the financial results for the U.S. manufacturing sector through Q3 of 2011, with the following highlights:1. After-tax profits for U.S. manufacturing corporations were just short of $150 billion during…
 
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    Economic Edge

  • Has It Comes Down To this - Is Greece About To Become The Eurozone's First Vassal State ?

    27 Jan 2012 | 7:25 pm
    (Reuters) - Germany is pushing for Greece to relinquish control over its budget policy to European institutions as part of discussions over a second rescue package, a European source told Reuters on Friday."There are internal discussions within the Euro group and proposals, one of which comes from Germany, on how to constructively treat country aid programs that are continuously off track, whether this can simply be ignored or whether we say that's enough," the source said.The source added that under the proposals European institutions already operating in Greece should be…

  • Things that make you go Hmm....... And a a Break From Greece !

    27 Jan 2012 | 6:39 am
       Well , good morning All ! Just another day , waiting like Godot to see what Plan 12 from Outer Space gets put forth for Greece's neverending PSI debt swap and eternal bailout .  A few hours to kill before US GDP - have to love a good piece of fiction , right ? Anyway , just as a open post , here are a few things that made me go hmm today ! First up , anyone buying the notion that 35 pounds of cocaine ( street value about $ 450,000 )  allegedly sent by a mexican drug cartel went to a dummy address .... did the wrong dummies screw up the intended transaction ? Nice bribe…

  • Dear Mr. Secretary - You Have Been Invited To A Care To Explain Yourself Soiree !

    26 Jan 2012 | 8:56 pm

  • You Have Been Invited To A Soiree ! Happy Thursday !

    26 Jan 2012 | 6:23 am
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9040103/Debt-crisis-live.html      It's hard to separate all of the EuroGroup Fin min meetings from the other hastily scheduled  EuroGroup meetings , which meetings are Super Summits  versus Informal Summits . is today a Merkozy special meeting or teleconference or are we waiting for the while smoke to arise after a Merkel - Sarkozy - Monti meet and greet tomorrow ? Do any of these sessions produce anything other than the assurances more meetings will follow ? So let's just have a Soiree - after all , the host of all…

  • The Edifice is Crumbling ! Greece version on Side A , European antics on Side B !

    25 Jan 2012 | 7:40 pm
    Things fall apart - generally at the wrong times , perhaps they  just fall apart when the supporting pillars no longer can withstand the load placed upon them ! Note the following news from Greece !  Employers and labor unions found some common ground during the first day of wage talks on Wednesday but it appears that neither side is willing to agree to Prime Minister Lucas Papademos’s suggestion that private sector workers’ salaries should be reduced. Papademos had indicated that lower wages would help Greece become more competitive but union and employer representatives agreed…
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    True Economics

  • 28/1/2012: Eurocoin for January 2012

    28 Jan 2012 | 4:43 am
    The latest leading indicator for euro area growth -Eurocoin - for January continues to signal recessionary dynamics, albeit at moderating rates of decline.January Eurocoin rose to -0.14 from -0.20 in December 2011. Here are some charts:Eurocoin is now in the negative territory for four consecutive months. 3mo MA is at -0.18, 6mo MA at -0.07, crossing into negative for the first time since the last recession. In January 2011 the indicator stood at +0.48. Quarterly rate of growth is now at -0.17 implying annualized contraction of -0.56%.There is now, due to persistent negative reading, more…

  • 26/1/2012: Rip-off Ireland - Sunday Times, 22 January 2012

    26 Jan 2012 | 9:56 am
    This is an edited version of my Sunday Times column from January 22, 2012.Back in 2004, with much fanfare, Fine Gael launched itsripoff.ie campaign that highlighted a large number of cases wherepolicy-related or regulated price structures and practices have resulted in ourcost of living falling well out of line with other Euro area economies. In2009, Fine Gael launched a policy paper that was supposed to end Rip-offculture, including in state controlled sectors, once and for all. Fast-forward to today. Since elections, having abandoned itspro-consumer agenda, Fine Gael has done marvellously…

  • 26/1/2012: IMF's latest statement on Greece

    25 Jan 2012 | 6:55 pm
    Here's an interesting statement:Given widespread press speculation and rumors regarding IMF views, the following can be attributed to an IMF spokesman, William Murray:"To ensure debt sustainability for Greece, it is essential that a new program be supported by a combination of private sector involvement and official sector support that will bring debt to 120 percent of GDP by 2020. The Fund has no view on the relative contribution of private sector involvement and official sector support in achieving this target. In line with this view, the IMF has not asked the ECB to play any specific…

  • 25/1/2012: Return to the Bond Markets

    25 Jan 2012 | 11:16 am
    According to the report in FT Alphaville (link here) Ireland has 'returned' to the bond markets by carrying out a swap of a 4% coupon 2014-maturing bond for a 4.5% coupon 2015-maturing bond. This reduces 2014 outgoings on redemption of maturing bonds and forces more maturity into 2015, which has more benign profile. But the switch comes at a price - the coupon is up 12.5% on previous.In effect, if this is less of an Ireland's 'return to the bond markets', more of Eddie 'The Eagle' Return to the Olympics type of an event. Much pomp (official announcements and Government statements to…

  • 24/1/2012: Residential property prices - 2011 highlights

    24 Jan 2012 | 9:35 am
    Latest Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) from CSO posts another monthly decline in the price series and marks deep drops in the property prices in 2011. Here are top of the line figures - end of year readings:And updated Nama valuations referencing:So to summarize (note - there will be more detailed analysis of this data coming up in later posts):All properties index is now 31.1% below January 2005 levelsHouses are now down 28.3% below January 2005 levelsApartments are now down 46.5% below January 2005 levelsDublin all properties are now down 39.3% below January 2005 levelsRates of…
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    Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

  • University of Michigan Survey of Consumers January 2012 (Final)

    27 Jan 2012 | 3:09 pm
    Today's final release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for January indicated improvement in consumer sentiment with a reading of 75.0 and climbing just 1.08% above the level seen last year while one year inflation expectations rose slightly to 3.3%.The Index of Consumer Expectations (a component of the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators) rose to 69.1, and the Current Economic Conditions Index climbed to 84.2.It's important to recognize that consumer sentiment has seriously eroded over the past few months with the current results remaining near…

  • New Home Sales: December 2011

    26 Jan 2012 | 11:11 am
    Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for December showing a notable monthly decline with sales dropping 2.2% since November and 7.3% below the level seen in December 2010 and remaining at an epically low level of 307K SAAR units.It's important to recognize that the inventory of new homes has now fallen to a new series low at 157K units, lowest level seen in in at least 47 years while the median number of months for sale declined to 6.7.The monthly supply remained declined to 6.1 months while the median selling price declined 12.81% and the…

  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: December 2011

    26 Jan 2012 | 11:02 am
    Today’s release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) improved though continued to indicate weakness in national economic trends with the index climbing to a tepid 0.17 while the three month moving average improved to -0.08.The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating…

  • Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims January 26 2012

    26 Jan 2012 | 10:55 am
    Today’s jobless claims report showed notable increases to both initial and continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted remained below the closely watched 400K level.Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment increased 21,000 to 377,000 claims from last week’s revised 356,000 claims while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims increased by 88,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.8%.Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent…

  • FHFA Monthly Home Prices: November 2011

    25 Jan 2012 | 9:17 am
    Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest results of their monthly house price index (HPI) showing that, nationally, home prices increased 0.98% since October and declined 2.48% below the level seen in November 2010.The FHFA monthly HPI are formulated from home purchase information collected from mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
 
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    The Economic Populist

  • Saturday Reads Around the Internets - OMG Mitt Made Sense

    Robert Oak
    28 Jan 2012 | 3:22 am
    Welcome to the weekly roundup of great articles, facts and figures. These are the weekly finds that made our eyes pop.   Mitt Romney Speaks Some Truth on Mortgages There has been more than one sane thing coming from Mitt Romney's mouth (surprise, surprise) and this one was so good even Eliot Spitzer and Dylan Ratigan took note: Finally, a presidential candidate came out and honestly addressed the biggest problem in our economy, the enormous debt overhang in our mortgage market. A few days ago, Mitt Romney was at a forum in Florida talking about foreclosures, and his comments were…

  • Q4 2011 GDP Advance Estimate - 2.8%

    Robert Oak
    27 Jan 2012 | 1:55 pm
    Q4 GDP 2011 came in at 2.8%.. Here is the original BEA GDP report. Q3 2011 GDP remained the same at 1.8%. Real GDP for 2011 is 1.7% for the year. 2010 saw a 3.0% real increase in GDP. Quarterly GDP is reported annualized.     read more

  • Here Come Commodities on Fire - Thank You Federal Reserve

    Robert Oak
    27 Jan 2012 | 5:06 am
    Quantitative Easing rumors are now spreading like wildfire. Speculators have already grabbed one commodity, tin. Tin climbed the most in almost four months in London as prospects of low U.S. interest rates at least until 2014 boosted speculation of increased demand for the metal used in mobile phones, plasma screens and cars. Gold bugs are also going nuts and most commodities have jumped in prices, almost overnight. There was a one two three punch by the Federal Reserve. First the FOMC announced uber-low interest rates until 2014. The Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative…

  • Durable Goods Increased 3.0% in December 2011

    Robert Oak
    26 Jan 2012 | 4:48 pm
    New Orders in Durable Goods, advance report, increased +3.0% for December 2011. November durable goods new orders jumped by 4.3% and October was a 0.1% increase. This means for all of Q4, we have an increase in durable goods new orders.     Manufacturing new orders surged 3.9% for December. November manufacturing new orders increased 6.2% but October declined -1.1%. Core capital goods new orders increased 2.9%, after declining -1.2% in November and -0.9% in October. Core capital goods is an investment gauge for the bet the private sector is placing on America's future economic…

  • New Residential Home Sales Decline -2.2% in December 2011

    Robert Oak
    26 Jan 2012 | 2:40 pm
    In December, New Residential Single Family Home Sales decreased -2.2%, or 307,0000 annualized sales. This report has a ±13.2% monthly margin of error and November single family home sales were significantly revised, from +1.6% to +2.3%. So much for that recovery, new single family home sales are -7.3% below December 2010 levels, which was 331,000 homes. New Home Sales are at a record low, going all the way back to 1963.     New Home Sales for the entire year, on aggregate, are also at a record low of 302,000 units, going all the way back to 1963.   read more
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    Stock Trading To Go

  • January 26th, 2012 Market Recap with SBUX Analysis

    Blain
    26 Jan 2012 | 5:40 pm
    A higher volume reversal after opening the day higher is a point of concern heading into tomorrow. Like anything though until support is broken the trend remains intact. Right now we are focusing on the very tight rising channel that has formed over the last month alongside the 10 MA. Both are shown below. On the earnings front, the highlight today after the close is Starbucks (SBUX) which, "reported quarterly earnings and revenue that beat Wall Street's forecasts on Thursday and raised its full-year guidance although its outlook remains below analysts' expectations." The stock is down just…

  • Join me for the 2012 ChartPattern.com Seminar on April 28th, 2012

    Blain
    25 Jan 2012 | 5:46 pm
    Join me for the once a year, ultra limited seating Dan Zanger seminar. The seminar will be held at the Renaissance Airport Hotel in Los Angeles, California on Saturday April 28th, 2012. Dan Zanger holds the World Record for the largest portfolio return in a single year (29,233%). His claim to fame is turning roughly $11,000 portfolio into $45 million over two years. Not bad at all I'd say . Through his website, chartpattern.com, Dan has a nightly newsletter where he posts his latest research, analysis, and stock picks (read my full Dan Zanger review). His newsletter is one of my favorites and…

  • January 24th, 2012 Market Recap with Apple Earnings Results

    Blain
    24 Jan 2012 | 4:11 pm
    Earnings season is in full force as we all know and today had Apple (AAPL) reporting after the bell. All I can say is wow... Apple Earnings summary: Q1 revenue of $46.33 Billion vs analyst expectations of $38.9 bln EPS was $13.87, vs. expectations of $10.10 per share 37.04 million iPhones sold, 128% growth yoy (year over year) 15.43 million iPads sold, 111% growth yoy 15.4 million iPods sold, -21% decrease yoy 5.2 million Macs sold, 26% growth yoy Shares resumed trading at 4:50 PM and as of 4:53 PM they are up over 8% trading around $455 per share. This gives Apple an effective market cap of…

  • January 23rd, 2012 Market Recap... Complacency at Fresh Highs

    Blain
    23 Jan 2012 | 5:47 pm
    Nothing major from the market today as the indices closed flat on lower volume. The word floating around is that there is extreme complacency with the market currently, suggesting a pull back is looming in the very near future. For further analysis read these quality posts from today's StockCharts.com and ZeroHedge. Some key points from ZeroHedge: "Most measures of market sentiment are back to where they were last May just when the S&P 500 was peaking. Short interest has dried up to three year lows. The VIX closed the week below 20 for the first time since last July. As Mike Santoli…

  • Tools of the ‘Trade’ - How I Invest (2012 Edition)

    Blain
    19 Jan 2012 | 8:11 pm
    With a brand new year among us it's time for another epic edition of Tools of the Trade. 2011 was a year to remember (or to be blocked from memory) as somehow amongst $1 trillion+ in new US Debt and a whole heck of a lot of drama in Europe the S&P 500 managed to squeeze out a $.04 gain. What's up with that? I am not sure about you readers, but for me the market atmosphere was anything but ideal in 2011. I invest entirely as a hobby and only when free time permits (StockBrokers.com receives most of my undivided attention now a days). As a result, I spent most of 2011 sitting in cash…
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    Peter Gallagher

  • Davos dribbles

    pwg
    26 Jan 2012 | 3:51 pm
    What a world of blather, the Davos meeting must be. The corporate chattering classes titilating themselves with scary, fuzzy, big-picture boogaloo. Clever talk and a few good dinners musing about issues they guess are complex, looming, and someone else’s problem (tomorrow) must console them for the rest of the year when they have to deal [...]

  • A bearish view of global governance

    pwg
    21 Jan 2012 | 5:21 pm
    If there were a ratings agency for the credibility of “global governance” institutions, the WTO’s would have been downgraded to a “B” at best[1] after the collapse of the Doha Round negotiations. The triple crown of benign global governance — a prosperous, well-regulated global “commons,” the sovereignty of nation-states and the assent of the governed [...]

  • A miracle on Lake Léman?

    pwg
    19 Dec 2011 | 3:55 am
    Geoff Kitney in today’s AFR wants you to believe Mark Emerson has “rescued the Doha round of trade negotiations from collapse” by convincing all other Members to adopt his/Julia’s plan to “keep the talks alive”. Contrast that breathless dispatch with this from Reuters: “WTO Meeting Ends with No Move Forward on Doha”. Or how about [...]

  • WTO Whimpers

    pwg
    18 Dec 2011 | 5:21 pm
    This weekend’s WTO Ministerial meeting in Geneva was unable to agree on how to keep goods and services markets open to trade and competition. That’s no surprise, after ten years of repeated failure to agree. Nor is it a catastrophe given that formal barriers are being held in check (more or less), for now, despite [...]

  • The mildness of global warming

    pwg
    14 Dec 2011 | 4:27 pm
    I don’t doubt any more than you do that the average atmospheric temperature has jumped around a lot but overall has risen a few tenths of a degree in the past century or so. But when you see the change in context there’s just no basis for alarm, or for Australia to endorse the IPCC’s [...]
 
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    Political Calculations

  • How Good Are Earnings Forecasts?

    27 Jan 2012 | 5:40 am
    How good are stock market earnings forecasts? Well, if you go by our chart below, which we constructed by sampling data we obtained from S&P roughly one-year apart (at the dates indicated) and mostly looking one-year-ahead in time, the answer is: not good at all! The moral of the story: future earnings projections are not necessarily very good indications of actual future earnings!

  • New Jobless Claims: Still on Track, But Increasingly Volatile

    26 Jan 2012 | 8:29 am
    Two weeks ago, we observed that the number of seasonally-adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims being filed each week was still following the same trend it has since 9 April 2011, but that it was becoming increasingly volatile, suggesting that the trend is beginning to break down: Today's number also underscores the increasing level of volatility in the data - when the current trend was establishing itself, it was characterized by relatively small changes in the number of new jobless claims being filed from week to week. Today new data marks the fourth time in the last six weeks in…

  • The President's Failing Focus on Jobs

    25 Jan 2012 | 5:21 am
    In his 2012 State of the Union Address, President Obama sought to "embrace manufacturing". Since the President has been in office for three years now, we thought we would take a look at how well he's done so far in embracing manufacturing, by his own terms. Our first chart shows the seasonally-adjusted number of individuals employed in the Manufacturing and the closely-related Transportation and Warehousing industries (aka "the supply chain"), which is based upon data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its Current Employer Survey, as of 22 January 2012, from November 2007 through…

  • The Poison Pill

    24 Jan 2012 | 5:09 am
    On 23 December 2011, the Republican party majority in the U.S. House of Representatives caved in on its opposition to President Obama and the Democratic party majority in the Senate's proposal to provide a two-month long extension for the President's payroll tax cut. Here, the percentage that individuals must pay in their taxes that support Social Security was maintained at 4.2% through the end of February 2012, after which, the rate is set to rise back up to the 6.2% level it had been for the two decades from 1990 through 2010. With President Obama's State of the Union address scheduled for…

  • Using the F-Score to Detect Accounting Fraud

    23 Jan 2012 | 5:17 am
    If you're just an average investor, how can you pick up on whether or not a company is cooking its books? Craig Newmark recently pointed to one of the neater ways in which someone might be able to determine if the numbers they're examining are following a natural pattern as opposed to an artificially-contrived one using Benford's Law, but unless you have access to reams and reams of internal company data, it's pretty unlikely that you as an individual without that kind of access could find out if something shady might be going on. But for publicly-traded companies, you can get access to a…
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    Calafia Beach Pundit

  • The 13% GDP gap

    27 Jan 2012 | 3:39 pm
    This chart nicely illustrates just how weak the current recovery has been—it's actually unprecedented. According to my calculations, there is a 13% "gap" between the current size of the economy and where it would be if it were following its long-term trend growth rate (3.07% compound annual growth, which breaks down on average into 1% annual growth in the workforce and 2% annual increases in productivity). The current output gap is equivalent to lost income of $1.75 trillion, and that's inextricably bound up with the fact that there ought to be at least 10 million more jobs today if the…

  • The Eurozone crisis is slowly fading away

    26 Jan 2012 | 11:08 am
    Eurozone swap spreads are still elevated, but they have come off their highs and as such are no longer signaling an imminent disaster. U.S. swap spreads have moderated substantially, having returned to the low 30s, well within the range that is considered "normal." The Eurozone banking system has avoided a meltdown, and banks' access to dollar liquidity (blue line in second chart above) continues to improve, suggesting further declines in euro swap spreads are likely. Meanwhile, from the perspective of U.S. markets, contagion risk has declined considerably.If anything sums things up,…

  • Three PIIGS are looking much better

    26 Jan 2012 | 10:43 am
    Here's an updated chart of the short-term yields on sovereign debt in the questionable countries of the Eurozone. I haven't included Greece, since Greek 2-yr yields are off the chart (over 180%), and Greece is a lost cause anyway: most Greek notes and bonds are priced at 21 cents on the dollar.Spain has made excellent progress. 2-yr Spanish yields haven't been this low since Nov. '10, and Italian yields are not far behind. Ireland gets credit for the most dramatic improvement of any of the PIIGS, with 2-yr yields having plunged from a high of 23% to just 5.2% today. The big decline in yields…

  • More fiscal and monetary stimulus means more slo-flation

    25 Jan 2012 | 1:53 pm
    The Law of Unintended Consequences, coupled with a contrarian mindset, is often the best way to understand the impact of government policies on the economy: whatever the government is trying hardest to do, expect the opposite. At the very least, remain very skeptical.Today the FOMC reminded us that they are trying really, really hard to stimulate the economy by keeping short-term interest rates very, very low, "at least through late 2014." Notably missing in today's FOMC statement was boilerplate which promises that the FOMC will keep its eye on the evolution of inflation and inflation…

  • Apple is simply amazing

    24 Jan 2012 | 5:08 pm
    Apple today announced earnings and revenues that far exceeded expectations—once again. As the above chart from MacRumors shows (HT: John Gruber), the biggest source of revenue gains was iPhone sales, which totaled over 37 million units in the latest quarter. And as Matt Richman notes (HT also to John Gruber):In 2009, Apple sold more iPhones than it did in 2007 and 2008 combined. In 2010, Apple sold more iPhones than it did in 2007, 2008, and 2009 combined. Last year, Apple sold 93.1 million iPhones, slightly more than it did in in 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 combined. The pattern…
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    Donald Marron

  • How Much Does the United States Really Owe?

    Donald Marron
    26 Jan 2012 | 11:01 pm
    My latest column at the Christian Science Monitor takes a crack at this perennial question. Short version: You ought to add about $4.6 trillion to whatever debt figure you are using. Why? Because the United States has about $7.3 trillion in non-debt liabilities (mostly pension and health benefits), offset by about 2.7 trillion in assets. These numbers aren’t perfect–for example, they dramatically understate the value of the gold the U.S. owns and put no value on the government’s ability to tax–but they illustrate that what the U.S. owes is more than its Treasury…

  • Can One Professor Teach 500,000 Students At Once?

    Donald Marron
    26 Jan 2012 | 8:02 am
    That’s what former Stanford professor Sebastian Thrun aims to do. Sound impossible? Well, he’s already taught a class of 160,000 students. As Felix Salmon recounts: Thrun told the story of his Introduction to Artificial Intelligence class, which ran from October to December last year. It started as a way of putting his Stanford course online — he was going to teach the whole thing, for free, to anybody in the world who wanted it. With quizzes and grades and a final certificate, in parallel with the in-person course he was giving his Stanford undergrad students. He sent out one…

  • Capital Gains Taxes Are Going Up

    Donald Marron
    24 Jan 2012 | 12:00 pm
    The top tax rate on long-term capital gains is currently 15%. That’s why Mitt Romney is spending so much time talking about his tax returns. That revelation has set off a familiar debate about whether that low rate is appropriate. Often overlooked in these discussions, however, is the fact that the days of the 15% tax rate are numbered. As of this posting, it has only 342 left. On January 1, 2013, capital gains taxes are scheduled to go up sharply: First, the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts are scheduled to expire. If that happens, the regular top rate on capital gains will rise to 20%. In addition,…

  • The Natural Gas Glut is Reshaping Electricity Markets

    Donald Marron
    18 Jan 2012 | 8:26 pm
    Over at Bloomberg, Julie Johnsson and Mark Chediak document how low natural gas prices are reshaping electricity markets. Wind, nuclear, and coal all look expensive compared to natural gas generation:  With abundant new supplies of gas making it the cheapest option for new power generation, the largest U.S. wind-energy producer, NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE), has shelved plans for new U.S. wind projects next year and Exelon Corp. (EXC) called off plans to expand two nuclear plants. Michigan utility CMS Energy Corp. (CMS) canceled a $2 billion coal plant after deciding it wasn’t financially…

  • Oil and Natural Gas Prices Move Even Further Apart

    Donald Marron
    9 Jan 2012 | 7:40 pm
    In 2010, I wrote a series of posts documenting how oil and natural prices had decoupled from each other (see here and here). For many years, oil prices (as measured in $ per barrel) were typically 6 to 12 times natural gas prices (as measured in $ per MMBtu). That ratio blew out to around 20 in 2009 and again in 2010, a severe break with historical trends. At the time, that seemed like an enormous disparity between the two prices. In retrospect, we hadn’t seem anything yet. As of yesterday, the ratio stood at more than 33: A barrel of oil has roughly 6 times the energy content of a…
 
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    Wehr in the World

  • Won’t you share my experiences?

    Justin Wehr
    26 Jan 2012 | 2:26 am
    I find that one of the most frustrating things about being human is that I have a strong desire to have people share in my experiences while at the same time an inability, a lack of capacity, to have them do so. Take music, for example. Music dominates me. No other medium has even close to the same level of emotional effect on me. Some songs are, for me, as close as it gets to sacred. And I treat them as such, i.e., I refuse to listen to them over computer speakers, I scoff at the idea at covers, and I listen with lights off or eyes closed. These are intensely emotional experiences, meaning…

  • I just want to be acknowledged, dammit

    Justin Wehr
    26 Jan 2012 | 1:23 am
    Per a commenter’s recommendation (and probably per a quest to justify my lack of a lady), I am reading Anthony Storr’s book Solitude: A Return to the Self. I liked his point that maybe the capacity for attachment is no more important than the capacity for being alone: Attachment is not the same as dependence. If we call an adult dependent, we imply that he is immature. But if he has no intimate attachments, we conclude that there is something wrong with him. Extreme detachment from ties with others is usually equated with mental illness. Chronic schizophrenics sometimes lead lives in…

  • Grammar snobbery

    Justin Wehr
    26 Jan 2012 | 12:20 am
    In The Mother Tongue, Bill Bryson points out the absurdities of English grammar using the case of the split infinitive. (A split infinitive is when an adverb comes between to and a verb, as in to quickly look.) I can think of two very good reasons for not splitting an infinitive. 1. Because you feel that the rules of English ought to conform to the grammatical precepts of a language (Latin) that died a thousand years ago. 2. Because you wish to cling to a pointless affectation of usage that is without the support of any recognized authority of the last 200 years, even at the cost of composing…

  • Saving face

    Justin Wehr
    24 Jan 2012 | 1:34 am
    My company’s parking lot is gated, meaning that I have to stop and roll down my window to get in. Meaning that I have to turn my music down to save face. It’s not a conscious decision. When you listen to the kind of music I do, it becomes an unconscious habit to preserve dignity. Sometimes I even catch myself switching to NPR just for effect. This morning was different. A Destiny’s Child song was playing that I am only moderately embarrassed to admit that I love (“Lose My Breath”). I reached for the volume button as usual, but then stopped myself. What’s the point, Dawg? (Yes, I…

  • The pain of independence

    Justin Wehr
    23 Jan 2012 | 10:47 pm
    There’s something about rejection. We humans are unique in our ability to be dumb enough to jump naked into frozen lakes and to squeeze massive baby heads out of our vaginas – we can do pain – but we’re also unique in our ability to dwell over hints that someone doesn’t like us.1 WHY DON’T YOU LIKE ME? Can’t you see I’m special and friendly and just generally a pretty cool cat? If you reflected on all the things you really wanted to want to do (second-order desire) but didn’t do, and then tried to figure out why you didn’t end up doing those things, I’d bet you’d find…
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    Mandel on Innovation and Growth

  • Innovation and job creation: The role of 4G

    Mike Mandel
    20 Jan 2012 | 1:49 pm
    Over the years, I’ve written repeatedly about the role of innovation in creating jobs. Industries with stagnant innovation lose jobs to more dynamic competitors, while innovative industries lead the jobs parade.  For example, in July 2010 I wrote a paper entitled “The Coming Communications Boom? Jobs, Innovation and Countercyclical Regulatory Policy”, where I argued that the communications sector is going to be the jobs leader in the current expansion: Today, the broad communications sector is an innovation success story in an otherwise sluggish economy. And that success…

  • Yglesias responds to PPI scale and innovation paper

    Mike Mandel
    18 Jan 2012 | 11:29 am
    Matt Yglesias has responded to my paper on scale and innovation with his piece “Small Is Still Beautiful: The trendy—and wrong—new argument that because big businesses innovate better, we should let them become monopolies.” Well, I’ve been accused of many things over the years (how about “Nostradamus of the New Economy“?). But no one has ever called me trendy before. Let me break down my argument into three statements. –Innovation is the most important force driving long-term growth. –Current economic trends suggest that big companies can in some…

  • Obama Administration makes crucial pivot on trade and jobs.

    Mike Mandel
    12 Jan 2012 | 5:37 am
    Moving into the 2012 election season, the Obama Administration is making a critical  pivot in its political and economic narrative on trade and jobs. During his Midwest trip this summer,  Obama extolled American workers as the most productive in the world,  and talked about free trade treaties as the solution to the job problem. The implication was that nothing was wrong, and the return of jobs was only a matter of time. But the White House has just issued a new report entitled “Investing in America: Building an Economy That Lasts”  that tells a very different story. The new…

  • Matt Yglesias: Wrong Crisis?

    Mike Mandel
    10 Jan 2012 | 3:55 pm
    Matt Yglesias thinks that my Washington Monthly piece is talking about the crisis that “we should have had,” not the crisis we actually had. I think sections of Tyler Cowen’s The Great Stagnation are about the crisis we should have had, that Michael Spence’s The Next Convergence is largely about the crisis we should have had, Joe Stiglitz’ recent Vanity Fair article is basically about the crisis we should have had, Michael Mandel’s piece on the myth of American productivity is about the crisis we should have had. I can name others. There’s no…

  • The Myth of American Productivity

    Mike Mandel
    10 Jan 2012 | 10:09 am
    I have a new article in the Washington Monthly entitled The Myth of American Productivity. Take a look.    
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    Supply and Demand (in that order)

  • President and Senator Obama not Straight on Food Stamp Eligibility

    27 Jan 2012 | 10:10 am
    President Obama recently said,First of all, I don't put people on food stamps. People become eligible for food stamps. Second of all, the initial expansion of food-stamp eligibility happened under my Republican predecessor, not under me. Number three, when you have a disastrous economic crash that results in 8 million people losing their jobs, more people are going to need more support from government.One major change in food stamp rules -- in the direction of more generosity -- occurred with the 2009 "stimulus" law, which has President Obama's signature, not Bush's.Another major change in…

  • Who Receives Government Assistance?

    25 Jan 2012 | 11:29 am
    Copyright, The New York Times CompanyThanks to the recession, and changes in program rules, a large fraction of households receive government assistance, especially those headed by people without a four-year college degree.The three largest government safety net programs serving nonelderly households are Medicaid, unemployment insurance and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Together they paid out more than $600 billion in benefits during 2010 on behalf of program participants. A large number of households received these benefits. Using the results of the Census Bureau’s…

  • How the States Use a Brochure to Siphon the U.S. Treasury

    18 Jan 2012 | 8:41 am
    My blog entry today explains how the number of SNAP households -- Washingtonspeak for number of families receiving food stamps from the federal government -- has exploded in recent years because states have helped rewrite the eligibility rules.Specifically, most states have eliminated asset tests. You can own a yacht and now receive food stamps (a yacht is better than stocks or bonds, because the latter will spin off income that could make you ineligible for food stamps).Aside from low income, even if it is just temporarily low, all you need is one of the states' brochures. For example, if…

  • Testing for Need

    18 Jan 2012 | 8:35 am
    Copyright, The New York Times CompanyOne myth about the surge in federal government spending over the last four years is that it was an automatic response to the recession. But the “tests” that beneficiaries of various government safety-net programs are required to pass before they can participate have gotten easier since 2007.The government safety net is intended to help people in need. Because a lot of people don’t need the government’s help, a variety of tests have been designed to distinguish the needy from everybody else. These include employment tests, asset tests,…

  • In Europe, a Longer Perspective on Unemployment Benefits

    11 Jan 2012 | 9:17 pm
    Copyright, The New York Times CompanyWhile Americans discuss the duration of unemployment benefits in terms of weeks, Europeans discuss them in terms of months and, sometimes, years. A few countries even pay unemployment benefits indefinitely, in some circumstances.Unemployment insurance offers funds, for a limited eligibility period (in the United States, now up to 99 weeks) to “covered” people who lost their jobs and have not yet been unable to find and start a new job. In last week’s post, I showed that the United States, for at least 50 years, has never offered unemployment benefits…
 
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    The Monkey Cage

  • Potpourri

    John Sides
    27 Jan 2012 | 4:08 pm
    Why does the Senate sometimes adjourn and sometimes recess?  Matt Glassman answers. Polarization in Obama’s approval ratings.  See also Joshua Huder’s commentary. Can the right electoral system bring peace and democracy?  Jay Ulfelder says the evidence is ambiguous.  My own contribution to this literature agrees. At least Newt has the support of Duke Cunningham. Texas polling nuggets from PPP: Mark Cuban more popular than Jerry Jones, and Tim Tebow is just popular.  Rick Perry?  Not so much. The world’s longest lab experiment.  

  • Does the Length of the Campaign Help or Hurt Incumbents?

    John Sides
    27 Jan 2012 | 1:32 pm
    A question from a Monkey Cage reader: Is there any research that looks at how the length of an electoral campaign (particularly presidential campaigns) is correlated with whether the incumbent wins or loses?  I’m curious mostly because it seems that Obama has had a lot of time to reposition himself for the upcoming election in response to his prospective opponents ideas/views/etc., more time probably than incumbent candidates did mid-20th century or even in the last few decades, though the benefits of incumbency in all elections going back I don’t know how far is more than…

  • The Defense Lobby and Aid to Egypt

    Erik Voeten
    27 Jan 2012 | 9:03 am
    A forthcoming article (non-gated version here) by Lars Berger shows that contributions from defense interests correlate strongly and significantly with the willingness of Congressmen to defeat attempts to reduce military aid to Egypt during the Mubarak era. Here is the abstract: In February 2011, the dramatic ouster of Hosni Mubarak threw into the spotlight the U.S. policy of granting generous and unconditional aid to the Egyptian regime at a time when the strategic rationale for such aid had become less obvious and calls for inserting human rights considerations into foreign aid allocations…

  • Mitt Romney’s Tax Problem

    John Sides
    27 Jan 2012 | 8:57 am
    Over at Model Politics, Lynn Vavreck, Josh, and I have a new post on Mitt Romney’s tax problem.  The problem for Romney, we argue, is that many Americans think he doesn’t pay his fair share.  And when we actually told respondents Romney’s tax rate, those who thought he doesn’t pay his fair share became more likely to say that he doesn’t care about “people like me.”  See the post for more explanation and several other findings.

  • Electoral Fraud in Russia: Report from the Russian Blogosphere

    Joshua Tucker
    26 Jan 2012 | 11:01 pm
    The following is a guest post from Scott Gehlbach, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison: In a recent post on the Monkey Cage, Andrew Gelman writes that he was “not convinced” by a recent attempt to debunk evidence of fraud in Russia’s recent parliamentary elections, though he asserts that he knows “nothing about Russian elections” and suggests that “others can feel free to clarify.” There is, in fact, quite a bit of information floating around the blogosphere on December’s Duma elections, though most of it is in Russian…
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Educational monoculture

    Andrew
    27 Jan 2012 | 8:29 am
    John Cook writes that he’d like to hear more people talk about “educational monoculture.” I don’t actually know John Cook but I enjoy reading his blog, so I feel like the least I can do is to honor his request. I have to admit that I have a bit of a monocultural temperament myself. I have strong feelings about the right and wrong way to do things, and I don’t have much patience for what seems to me to be the wrong way. As a result, I’ve often disparaged or ignored important statistical developments because some small aspect of the new idea didn’t fit…

  • Suggested resolution of the Bem paradox

    Andrew
    26 Jan 2012 | 8:11 am
    There has been an increasing discussion about the proliferation of flawed research in psychology and medicine, with some landmark events being John Ioannides’s article, “Why most published research findings are false” (according to Google Scholar, cited 973 times since its appearance in 2005), the scandals of Marc Hauser and Diederik Stapel, two leading psychology professors who resigned after disclosures of scientific misconduct, and Daryl Bem’s dubious recent paper on ESP, published to much fanfare in Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, one of the top…

  • Chris Schmid on Evidence Based Medicine

    Andrew
    25 Jan 2012 | 8:15 am
    Chris Schmid is a statistician at New England Medical Center who is an expert on evidence-based medicine. I invited him to present an introductory overview lecture on the topic at last year’s Joint Statistical Meetings, and here are his slides. All 123 of them. I don’t know how he expected to go though all of these in an hour. You could teach a semester-long course based on this material. Good stuff, I recommend you all read it.

  • Difficulties in publishing non-replications of implausible findings

    Andrew
    24 Jan 2012 | 8:57 am
    Eric Tassone points me to this news article by Christopher Shea on the challenges of debunking ESP. Shea writes: Earlier this year, a major psychology journal published a paper suggesting that there was some evidence for “pre-cognition,” a form of ESP. Stuart Ritchie, a doctoral student at the University of Edinburgh, is part of a team that tried, but failed, to replicate those results. Here, he tells the Chronicle of Higher Education’s Tom Bartlett about the difficulties he’s had getting the results published. Several journals told the team they wouldn’t publish a study that…

  • Fight! (also a bit of reminiscence at the end)

    Andrew
    23 Jan 2012 | 8:02 am
    Martin Lindquist and Michael Sobel published a fun little article in Neuroimage on models and assumptions for causal inference with intermediate outcomes. As their subtitle indicates (“A response to the comments on our comment”), this is a topic of some controversy. Lindquist and Sobel write: Our original comment (Lindquist and Sobel, 2011) made explicit the types of assumptions neuroimaging researchers are making when directed graphical models (DGMs), which include certain types of structural equation models (SEMs), are used to estimate causal effects. When these assumptions,…
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    Alea

  • Moved

    admin
    22 Jan 2012 | 7:42 am
    Here and there   http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B002BA4UTE
 
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    Capital Chronicle

  • Still time to change those francs to euros!

    18 Jan 2012 | 3:05 am
    Limited time offer, ends 17 February!Not only have the New Year sales just kicked off in France (the dates of which are governed by legislation, an interesting curio) but you can still get a bargain for those old francs under the mattress!You read right. Take your Pierre and Marie Curies, your Eiffels, your Cézannes and your Debussys - coins no longer accepted, navré - down to your local Banque de France and get...euros (while stocks last)! Affaire!Who says the EFSF is illusory and circular?

  • LulzSec forgive us our debts (and other 2012 predictions)

    26 Dec 2011 | 11:53 am
    Debts forgiven!  In a scene reminiscent of the "adult toy" revenge scene from the Girl with the Dragon Tattoo the LulzSec hacker group declare their frustration with the rigidity ofpersonal debt obligations that, they claim, hinder corporate investment inhigher speed internet gaming infrastructure (“no one will be able to afford it if they build it”).  They launch a massive and coordinated hack ofretail bank computer networks across the globe erasing household mortgagerecords (taking the time to digitally tattoo the word "Occupied" in all data fields) and thereby…

  • Olympus: the camera never lies...

    9 Nov 2011 | 11:08 am
    Both cloudyMaybe the move from analogue to digital has not been so smooth after all.One might think there could be no doubt someone, somewhere in Olympus will serve a stretch for this. However, with the former President Toshiro Shimoyama (1984 to 1993) reportedly claiming that:"he had no memory of any loss-hiding scheme and was not closely involved in finance at the time"there seem to be few signs of imminent seppuku. On the other hand, recent executives - younger, sharper and fully digitised on the memory front - probably do recall paying an advisory fee of $687m. It was a little over the…

  • "Investor relations", a novel. By MF Global

    31 Oct 2011 | 11:10 am
    But will it sell? 24 October: "NEW YORK, Oct 24, 2011 -- MF Global Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: MF), a broker-dealer providing trading and hedging solutions, has rescheduled the release of its fiscal second quarter 2012 financial results from Thursday, October 27, 2011 to Tuesday, October 25, 2011.(link)25 October: "Strengthened capital and liquidity position. As of September 30, 2011, the company has over $3.7 billion in available liquidity, including $1.3 billion in available committed revolving credit facilities and $2.5 billion in total capital." (link) "Over the course of the past year, we have…

  • Dexia: assume a can opener…

    10 Oct 2011 | 7:40 am
    …or at least no sovereign defaults and - presto - no problems.Reality maybe as overrated as stress test results but it tends to be expensive to ignore. 10.4 billion of expense in this case – and that’s just the price of theinsurance.Theinvolvement of the Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations has serious ramification forFrench residents like me: it may put an end to my wondering about curious yearend spending in the commune (eg digging up the mayoral lawn and replacing afunctioning sprinkler system with a new, functioning sprinkler system). But soit is the world over when local…
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    Businomics Blog

  • American Manufacturing and Distribution: Surviving a European Economic Meltdown?

    Bill Conerly
    24 Jan 2012 | 1:23 pm
    American manufacturers are enjoying a moderate recovery, but Europe’s financial crisis poses a great risk to both factories and the wholesalers who are both up-stream and down-stream from them. That recovery is shown by an increase of manufacturing output, up 16 percent from the bottom of the cycle in mid-2009. Total wholesale sales have grown much more, but a good portion of that reflects a more than doubling of oil and gasoline prices. However, the bad news is that industry has not grown nearly enough. The level of production remains over seven percent lower than at the previous cycle…

  • Exports: Risk of Recession Rising

    Bill Conerly
    14 Jan 2012 | 6:00 am
    Maybe I’m a little jumpy, having just created a series of videos about business planning with a risk of recession. Today’s foreign trade data worry me. If the United States economy is going to turn down, then foreign trade is the most likely source of the slump. Consumers are fairly stable now, spending in pace with their income gains. Housing and non-residential construction are weak, but don’t have much room to worsen. Government spending is not going to suddenly crash. The two major risk areas are exports and business capital spending. The latest decline in exports may just be a…

  • Business Planning With a Risk of Recession: Strategic Initiatives

    Bill Conerly
    13 Jan 2012 | 12:53 pm
    I posted a video about how to do economic contingency planning for the risk of recession with respect to your business's strategic initiatives on my Forbes.com page. Here's the introduction: The economic forecast has a major weirdness. Most of my colleagues and I think that this year will bring light-to-moderate growth, but we’re also warning of the possibility of a recession triggered by the European financial crisis. How do you, as a business leader, prepare your company for growth if it occurs, but also protect it from recession? So you had a planning session, maybe an offsite.

  • Business Planning With a Risk of Recession

    Bill Conerly
    11 Jan 2012 | 5:59 pm
    I've posted a new video on my Forbes.com page on the subject Business Planning With A Risk of Recession. Here's the introduction: We economists are predicting light to moderate growth this year, but we’re also saying there is a significant chance of recession. That sounds weird, but the important question is, “What are you going to do with that information?” In this series of videos, you will learn how to deal with the weirdness that comes from planning your business operations when the consensus economic forecast calls for moderate growth, but there is also a strong risk of…

  • An Economic Forecast for the Timber Industry, 2012-2013

    Bill Conerly
    2 Jan 2012 | 3:35 pm
    Wood products demand is far more sensitive to the economy than demand for almost any other product. The outlook for the next two years is moderately positive, at least compared to the weak domestic markets we’ve seen since the downturn began. Log export markets look favorable, but with substantial risk deriving from Europe’s financial crisis. The bottom line is that timber industry executives must plan for moderate growth while protecting themselves from a possible recession. This outlook focuses on macro-economic forces impacting timber, but not the micro-economic forces. We’ll ignore…
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    TheMoneyIllusion

  • About the GDP numbers

    ssumner
    27 Jan 2012 | 10:04 am
    Our GDP numbers are notoriously unreliable, so keep that in mind as you read the following.  There are two ways of estimating GDP; income and expenditure.  The income numbers are considered more reliable, so naturally the press ignores them and reports the expenditure numbers.  The estimated expenditure growth rate fell from 4.4% in the 3rd quarter to 3.2% in the 4th quarter.  The income numbers aren’t in yet, but from preliminary data it looks like GDP growth increased from 2.6% in the 3rd quarter to about 4% in the 4th quarter. BTW, you notice I don’t specify…

  • Eugene White on banking: regulation or incentives?

    ssumner
    27 Jan 2012 | 8:42 am
    At a recent economics conference I came across a fascinating paper by Eugene White, which discussed how incentives built into banking during the National Banking Era helped reduce risk taking.  The paper changed my views more than anything else I’ve read in recent years.  Here’s a few excerpts: The Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 exemplifies this confusion. Few observers believe that the bill will provide a lasting reform of the American financial system, and many suspect that it will sow the seeds of the next financial crisis. By focusing on the regulation of choices made by borrowers,…

  • Enrich thy neighbor

    ssumner
    26 Jan 2012 | 7:47 pm
    I could write an entire book on economic myths.  One of the most famous is the idea that devaluing your currency steals business away from neighboring countries.  This idea, sometimes dubbed “beggar-thy-neighbor,” had a grain of truth during the 1930s.  When countries left the gold standard, it led to fears that the remaining countries would devalue.  This caused gold hoarding, which was deflationary for the countries with currencies still pegged to gold. But this theory has no place in the modern world.  Every time the Fed eases significantly, the dollar drops.  And stock…

  • More evidence that Bernanke is a dove

    ssumner
    26 Jan 2012 | 5:14 pm
    More on the endlessly interesting Bernanke press conference: Robin Harding: Robin Harding from the Financial Times. Mr. Chairman, while I look at these forecasts for 2014, the median of the forecast is I think 0.75 and the mean is 1.12 percent. If I were to draw a line for these–these dots, how should I draw it so I best understand what the FOMC is most likely to do? I expected Bernanke to dodge the question.  He’d emphasized elsewhere that these were just forecasts, and when the time came the Fed would have to look at current data.  (After someone pointed out that 11 of 17…

  • “I’m a little confused”

    ssumner
    25 Jan 2012 | 9:52 pm
    It really sucks not having a transcript of the press conference, which I think contained some rather stunning remarks.  I tried to write down notes, but these won’t be exact quotations. Early on someone asked a very apt and pointed question (almost Svenssonian), which went something like this: I’m a little confused.  The reports seems to show at the end of 2014 the unemployment rate at or above 7% and inflation at or below 2%.  And yet 11 out of 17 members of the committee wanted to raise rates by that time.  If unemployment and inflation are in fact symmetrical objectives,…
 
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    Scott Lincicome

  • Classic: Poster Child for President's SOTU "Trade Enforcement Team" Is an Abject Failure

    26 Jan 2012 | 7:41 pm
    I've already spent too much time writing about the stale trade ideas in President Obama's 2012 State of the Union, but one of the President's many comments on trade - reminded to me by Cato's indomitable Sallie James - deserves more pointed criticism (emphasis mine): I will go anywhere in the world to open new markets for American products. And I will not stand by when our competitors don’t play by the rules. We’ve brought trade cases against China at nearly twice the rate as the last administration –- and it’s made a difference. Over a thousand Americans are working today…

  • GPX Update (Bi-partisan Punting Edition) [UPDATED]

    25 Jan 2012 | 6:30 pm
    The office of House Ways & Means Chair Dave Camp (R-MI) provides us today with a little update to my novel-length post on the current mess that is the United States now-illegal (according to US courts and the WTO) application of countervailing duties (CVDs) to imports from non-market economies: Ways and Means Chairman Dave Camp (R-MI) issued the following statement in response to the decision by the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit to grant an extension for filing a rehearing request in the ongoing litigation about the application of the countervailing duty…

  • SOTU Preview

    24 Jan 2012 | 6:24 pm
    The Obama administration has already leaked much of what the President will say in tonight's State of the Union Address - a really nice gesture towards those of us who'd prefer to watch sports or a movie or something (anything!) rather than sit through the speech.  So since we already know much of what the President will say tonight (hooray "fairness"!), and since he appears ready to recycle a lot of his old material, I figure I'll recycle some of my stuff for a little SOTU pre-buttal.  Enjoy: On the President's Big Plan for Combining US Trade…

  • On China Trade, the Obama Administration Just Can't Stop Digging

    22 Jan 2012 | 8:47 pm
    When I first reported on the "bombshell" ruling of the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit (CAFC) in GPX Int'l Tire Corp. v. United States that the US countervailing duty law did not apply to China and other "non-market economies," I noted that the court decision would likely cause a lot of legal and political scrambling by the Obama administration as it rushed to clean up the big mess that its CVD/NME policies (admittedly begun by the Bush administration) had caused.  I also noted at the time that the administration could easily extricate itself from the deep CVD/NME hole…

  • Cool Infographic: Explaining the Big Mac Index

    19 Jan 2012 | 7:27 pm
    The folks over at OnlineMBA have created a cool new infographic that explains The Economist's "Bic Mac Index" - a fun, back-of-the-envelope measure of national currencies' relative values and something that I've discussed here before.  There's lots in here, so take your time and enjoy (and note again that, according to the new, "adjusted" Index, China's currency isn't undervalued): This feed originates at the personal blog of Scott Lincicome (http://lincicome.blogspot.com).
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    David Roodman's Microfinance Open Book Blog

  • Weekly Tweets for 2012-01-27

    David Roodman
    27 Jan 2012 | 11:00 am
    By David Roodman - Role Reversal Revisited: Important new report arguing that public #microfinance investment is crowding out private http://t.co/yocwtKHR # Tom Heinemann's point of view on the making of his muckraking #microfinance documentary http://t.co/pMp04a0B # India finance ministry OK's #microfinance bill that would allow deposit-taking. Goes to parliament now. http://t.co/IzmOmpyB # Getting set for debate with Milford Bateman Monday about whether #microfinance is the worst thing ever. Watch online:http://t.co/OlhiTgk8 # RT @hiiDunia: "What makes a microloan work?"…

  • Weekly Tweets for 2012-01-20

    David Roodman
    20 Jan 2012 | 11:00 am
    By David Roodman - USAID moves to untie aid–less obliged to buy American if that wastes $ http://t.co/ZLj4GJM7 (HT Julia Clark) # .@mrajshekhar in @EconomicTImes on how India's #microfinance institutions are responding to duress by moving upscale http://t.co/oxSzzcpc # My book Due Diligence is now available as a Google Ebook http://t.co/RqDn56Qz and Kindle http://t.co/ssxjoL53 #microfinance # RT @dashakuts: 167 people voted for final question for debate @Microlinks betw. Bateman & @davidroodman polling results http://t.co/QTLD9cQa #

  • Due Diligence on Kindle and Google Books

    David Roodman
    18 Jan 2012 | 8:41 pm
    By David Roodman - Yay. You can now buy my book in electronic form: for the Kindle ($10) and Google Books ($8—except right now it is only page images, so it is not searchable or reflow-able). You don’t need a Kindle to read the Kindle edition. I have the Kindle app on my Droid and the Kindle reader on my Windows laptop.

  • Book Launch Video

    David Roodman
    17 Jan 2012 | 9:06 am
    By David Roodman - Here’s the video of the “launch” of my book on January 5 (sorry, no countdown). I presented the book last week at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle and the Silicon Valley Microfinance Network in San Francisco. Despite all these years of reading, conversing, blogging, and book-writing about my analysis, it was yet refreshing to hear reactions from audience members at these events, which have prodded me to refine how I say what I think, and even what I think. I hope to share that with you soon, but first must attend to a few requests…

  • Weekly Tweets for 2012-01-13

    David Roodman
    13 Jan 2012 | 11:00 am
    By David Roodman - A voice of reason amid the sound and fury of the #microfinance debate http://t.co/W96P0LbK via @guardian # Does #Microfinance Really Work? A New Book Says No http://t.co/4xJS2a2W via @TIME # My book does not say that RT @TIMEWorld: A new book says microfinance is bunk | http://t.co/tovL2BxP # A new tweet says that @TimeWorld is bunk But article OK RT @TIMEWorld: A new book says microfinance is bunk | http://t.co/tovL2BxP # Initial, heartfelt reactions to my #microfinance book from FINCA president & CEO @RupertScofield: The Great Divide http://t.co/dfjak9Ep # Or is key…
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    Robert Salomon's Blog

  • Media Appearance: Kodak Bankruptcy

    Robert Salomon
    23 Jan 2012 | 1:14 pm
    Last week I appeared on Xinhua’s CNC World Report discussing the Kodak bankruptcy. The discussion centered on Kodak’s history and its response to industry change. As I mentioned in the interview, Kodak was unable to change its internal culture so as to benefit from the shift to digital photography – technological change that, paradoxically, it helped usher in. Kodak did not realize the potential of digital photography early enough and it reacted late, by which time it was far too late to play catch up. A little snippet: As film began its path to obsolescence, Kodak missed…

  • FDI subsidies: Good for the taxpayer?

    Robert Salomon
    19 Jan 2012 | 2:29 pm
    A recent issue of Columbia Perspectives on FDI asks whether foreign direct investment subsidies are good or bad for the countries that offer them (see Investment incentives and the global competition for capital). Investment incentives (subsidies designed to affect the location of investment) are a pervasive feature of global competition for foreign direct investment (FDI). They are used by the vast majority of countries, at multiple levels of government, in a broad range of industries. They take a variety of forms, including tax holidays, grants and free land. In general, I am opposed to…

  • Coca-Cola Acquires Aujan Stake

    Robert Salomon
    7 Jan 2012 | 8:27 pm
    Coca-Cola announced in October that it was looking to further expand into the Middle East. Towards that end, Coca-Cola and Aujan Industries signed an agreement that marks one of the largest multinational investments in the consumer-goods industry in the region (see Aujan Industries and The Coca-Cola Company Announce Signing of $980 Million Agreement). Under the terms of the agreement, The Coca-Cola Company will acquire 50 percent of the Aujan entity that holds the rights to Aujan-owned brands, and 49 percent of Aujan’s bottling and distribution company… As many of you know, I am…

  • China’s Murky Ownership Laws

    Robert Salomon
    22 Dec 2011 | 1:30 pm
    I’ve always found the notion of private enterprise in China somewhat confusing. This is not because private enterprises do not exist in China, but because it’s incredibly difficult to determine whether, or to what extent, “private” companies are really State-owned enterprises (SOEs) in disguise. This is especially true for large corporations. With that in mind, I found a recent Economist article on the subject especially timely (see Capitalism Confined). The article details how Chinese companies fall into 4 general categories: large state-controlled enterprises (SOEs), joint ventures…

  • Indian Retail Laws Changing??

    Robert Salomon
    6 Dec 2011 | 11:59 am
    Early last week, India’s government looked set to change its retail laws, freeing up restrictions on foreign direct investment (see Let Walmart In, Wholesale Reform, Fury erupts as India opens door to Wal-Marts, IKEA set to announce retail plans for India). Foreign retailers that sell multiple brands (Walmart, Tesco, Carrefour, etc.) will now be allowed to own 51% of retail operations in India; single brand retailers (Ikea, Nike, Apple, etc.) will be allowed to own 100% of retail operations. India’s hope? The hope is that foreign entry can help modernize infrastructure, distribution,…
 
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    Jesse's Café Américain

  • Year-To-Date Performance: Silver, Gold, SP 500, and the Dollar - Fitch Downgrades Europe

    27 Jan 2012 | 5:21 pm
    There are still two trading days left in the month so it is obviously too early to book the results. And it may not be quiet next week, or the rest of the year, as Fitch issued a new downgrade on five European nations. Fitch downgraded the sovereign credit ratings of Belgium, Cyprus, Italy, Slovenia and Spain on Friday, indicating there was a 1-in-2 chance of further cuts in the next two

  • Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

    27 Jan 2012 | 3:04 pm
    There was a really nice push up into resistance today. Next week could be dicey unless there is some settlement in the European debt situation.

  • SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts

    27 Jan 2012 | 3:02 pm
    There were additional rumours of the Facebook IPO coming out next week. If that happens the Street will probably prop the major markets in order to get it priced and out the door. The market was wobbly today, with a late push in the financials failing to turn the markets green.

  • Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Consolidation (With a Slight Return)

    26 Jan 2012 | 3:10 pm
    We had the expected consolidation in the metals today after a spectacular rally run off the artificial hammering they took in December. Flat now in the trading books at least, and waiting to see what happens next. I would like to see another day or two of gains consolidation with a little retrace, and then a gap and a leg higher. But let's see what happens first. The market will always be

  • SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Said the Joker to the Thief

    26 Jan 2012 | 3:07 pm
    4Q 2011 Advance GDP is out tomorrow morning. The selling today had little volume behind it, and it looked more like a consolidation than a top, at least so far. I'm flat the market now, and waiting to see what happens next.
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    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • On Hester's bonus

    chris dillow
    27 Jan 2012 | 8:11 am
    RBS’s award of a £963,000 bonus to Stephen Hester has provoked anger. My chart shows one reason why. In the last 12 months, RBS’s share price has underperformed the market; it has also underperformed two of its three main peers - HSBC and Barclays but not Lloyds. Insofar as Hester’s job is to raise the value of RBS for the tax-payer, he has failed in the last 12 months. But is the share price the relevant measure of performance? In one powerful sense, yes. A share price assesses the overall value of the firm. It is (almost) always possible to point to something good that a CEO does; it…

  • Adjustment costs vs steady states

    chris dillow
    26 Jan 2012 | 7:57 am
    Consider four issues: 1. John McDonnell objects thusly to the EU-India Free Trade Agreement: If multi-brand retailing is suddenly and without safeguard opened up to EU retailers such as Carrefour, Metro and Tesco, 1.8 million jobs may be created, but at the cost of up to 5.7 million people working as street vendors. But there are reasons to agree with Peter Mandelson that those 5.7 million are only “short-term losers”. Those 1.8 million new jobs will be (relatively) high productivity an high wage ones. As those workers spend their higher incomes, they’ll create new demand which will…

  • Is there an austerity curve?

    chris dillow
    25 Jan 2012 | 7:58 am
    I’m intrigued by Duncan’s idea of an austerity curve. - the idea that: cutting government spending up to a certain point leads to lower deficits but beyond a certain point, the impact of lower growth and higher unemployment means that deficits get worse as the government cuts more. If you support the Labour party’s position of supporting small cuts but not large ones, you have to believe something like this*. It seems to me that this is only possible if the multiplier varies with the size of cuts. For small cuts, the (negative) multiplier must be sufficiently small that GDP doesn’t…

  • Should we cap bosses' pay?

    chris dillow
    24 Jan 2012 | 8:21 am
    As it seems unlikely that Vince Cable’s plan to empower shareholders will greatly rein in bosses’ pay, George Monbiot is proposing a simpler alternative - a maximum wage law. I’m not sure that either proposal is good enough. Granted, they might be. There’s an element of the arms race about bosses’ pay. It’s possible, therefore, that anything that can achieve co-ordinated control of pay will reverse this. If company A knows that company B is not paying silly money (either because of a law or shareholder activism), then it won’t do so either. The bubble thus bursts. And this…

  • The ideology of incentives

    chris dillow
    23 Jan 2012 | 8:56 am
    Nick Clegg says we need a cap on benefits “not least to increase the incentives to work.” This runs into an obvious objection - that the big problem right now is not so much a lack of incentives to work but a lack of opportunities to do so. There are 2.69 million unemployed chasing 459,000 vacancies - that’s 5.85 unemployed per opening. Prating about incentives when the big issue is the lack of demand for workers requires the sort of stupidity that doesn’t emerge unaided. It requires the help of ideology. There are several cognitive biases which lead people to over-rate the importance…
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    David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

  • GDP slips. but no big deal

    David Smith
    25 Jan 2012 | 5:15 am
    The 0.2% drop in gross domestic product inn the fourth quarter of 2011 was disappointing, but probably no more than that. It did not change estimates for growth in 2011 of 0.9% (1.4% excluding North Sea oil and gas) and...

  • Eurozone takes its toll on global growth

    David Smith
    24 Jan 2012 | 9:45 am
    The International Monetary Fund has revised down its growth forecast for 2012 to 3.3%, from 4% in September, and its 2013 forecast from 4.5% to 3.9%. To be fair, its earlier forecasts looked a little rosy, though the global economy...

  • Public borrowing continues to fall

    David Smith
    24 Jan 2012 | 7:00 am
    Public sector net borrowing was £13.7 billion last month, down from £15.9 billion a year earlier. The current budget deficit was £10.8 billion, down from £13.3 billion in December 2010. Upward revisions to earlier data mean that cumulative borrowing for...

  • Britain, Japan and low gilt yields, part II

    David Smith
    23 Jan 2012 | 7:45 am
    Jonathan Portes, director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr), has published a lively rejoinder to my piece yesterday on his blog, here, in which he suggests I tie myself "up in all sorts of knots". Jonathan's...

  • Britain is not following the Japanese script

    David Smith
    22 Jan 2012 | 3:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Britain has a budget deficit that compares unfavourably with most of the economies downgraded by the ratings agency Standard & Poor’s a few days ago. Britain’s...
 
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    Thinking on the Margin

  • "Life is 10% What Happens to Me and 90% How I React to It"

    Brian Hollar
    17 Jan 2012 | 5:53 am
    One of my all time favorite quotes, by Chuck Swindol: The longer I live, the more I realize the impact of attitude on life. Attitude, to me, is more important than facts. It is more important than the past, the education, the money, than circumstances, than failure, than successes, than what other people think or say or do. It is more important than appearance, giftedness or skill. It will make or break a company...a church...a home. The remarkable thing is we have a choice everyday regarding the attitude we will embrace for that day. We cannot change our past...we cannot change the fact that…

  • Why You Should Study Statistics

    Brian Hollar
    16 Jan 2012 | 9:45 pm
    (via Dilbert.com)

  • Tenure Track at Marymount University!

    Brian Hollar
    15 Jan 2012 | 2:32 pm
    I just accepted a full-time tenure-track position as an Assistant Professor of Economics at Marymount University here in Arlington, VA.  Got my office this past week and classes start on Tuesday.  As part of my responsibilities, I will be director of Marymount's Economics in Society undergraduate program.  It seems a perfect match on many levels. The position is heavily oriented toward teaching.  To make this position even sweeter, the university is a 10-minute walk from home.  The Economics in Society program also seems a perfect match to my academic training and…

  • Merry Christmas!

    Brian Hollar
    25 Dec 2011 | 7:10 pm
    Wishing all my readers a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

  • Rest In Peace, Steve Jobs

    Brian Hollar
    5 Oct 2011 | 9:37 pm
    “No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don’t want to die to get there. And yet death is the destination we all share. No one has ever escaped it. And that is as it should be, because Death is very likely the single best invention of Life. It is Life’s change agent. It clears out the old to make way for the new. Right now the new is you, but someday not too long from now, you will gradually become the old and be cleared away. Sorry to be so dramatic, but it is quite true.  Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life. Don’t be trapped…
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    Top Gun Financial Planning

  • Top Gun FP Client Note: New Year Buzz About To Turn Into A Hangover

    Greg Feirman
    17 Jan 2012 | 1:51 pm
    NOTE: Every week or two I write a Client Note for my clients.  For a limited time, I am allowing non-clients to sign up and receive it at the same time as my clients.  You can sign up at the top right hand corner of the website.  I will also be posting the notes on my blog with a time delay from time to time. Originally sent to clients Tuesday, January 10. There is something psychological about starting the year afresh, but the truth is corporate profits and macroeconomics trends don’t turn with the calendar.   - Adam Parker, Chief US Equity Strategist, Morgan Stanley, quoted in…

  • Top Gun FP Client Note: Seasonality Versus Technicals

    Greg Feirman
    6 Dec 2011 | 9:08 pm
    NOTE: Every week or two I write a Client Note for my clients.  For a limited time, I am allowing non-clients to sign up and receive it at the same time as my clients.  You can sign up at the top right hand corner of the website.  I will also be posting the notes on my blog with a time delay from time to time. Originally sent to clients Tuesday, December 6. The wild swings continued the last two weeks with the S&P dropping 4.7% Thanksgiving week on concerns about Europe but reversing course last week (+7.4%) on hopes for a European solution.   December is historically one of the…

  • Top Gun FP Client Note: The Bear Market Of 2012

    Greg Feirman
    21 Nov 2011 | 11:49 pm
    NOTE: Every week or two I write a Client Note for my clients.  For a limited time, I am allowing non-clients to sign up and receive it at the same time as my clients.  You can sign up at the top right hand corner of the website.  I will also be posting the notes on my blog with a time delay from time to time. Originally sent to clients Monday, November 21. If Italy goes down, the European dream is over.   - “Ignore Egan-Jones at Your Peril”, The Absolute Return Letter, November 2011   “Deficit Effort Nears Collapse”   - Front Page Headline, The Wall Street…

  • Top Gun FP Client Note: The Road Map Into Year End

    Greg Feirman
    8 Nov 2011 | 3:05 pm
    NOTE: Every week or two I write a Client Note for my clients.  For a limited time, I am allowing non-clients to sign up and receive it at the same time as my clients.  You can sign up at the top right hand corner of the website.  I will also be posting the notes on my blog with a time delay from time to time. Originally sent to clients Monday, November 7. The take-away for both liberals and conservatives is repugnant: They need to identify the most justifiable spending cuts - lots of them - and the least damaging tax increases, which will still be sizable. They need to come clean with…

  • Top Gun FP Client Note: After Euro-Phoria

    Greg Feirman
    1 Nov 2011 | 1:23 am
    NOTE: Every week or two I write a Client Note for my clients.  For a limited time, I am allowing non-clients to sign up and receive it at the same time as my clients.  You can sign up at the top right hand corner of the website.  I will also be posting the notes on my blog with a time delay from time to time. Originally sent to clients Monday, October 31. As we close out a spectacular October, it’s a good time to take stock and consider the trading environment heading into year end.   In “The Case For A 4th Quarter Rally”, I listed three reasons to be bullish.  The…
 
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    Project Syndicate

  • BHAGWATI: The Brain-Drain Panic Returns

    Jagdish Bhagwati
    26 Jan 2012 | 5:00 pm
    BHAGWATI: The Brain-Drain Panic Returns While developed countries are angst-ridden over mostly illegal immigration by unskilled workers from developing countries, a different set of concerns has surfaced in Africa, in particular, over the legal outflow of skilled people to developed countries. But these concerns are misplaced.

  • EVANS: Responsibility While Protecting

    Gareth Evans
    26 Jan 2012 | 5:00 pm
    EVANS: Responsibility While Protecting Ten months ago, the UN Security Council, with no dissent, authorized the use of “all necessary measures” to protect civilians at imminent risk of massacre in Colonel Muammar el-Qaddafi’s Libya. Now, however, the "responsibility to protect," applied for the first time in the subsequent NATO-led campaign, must be revised if it is to be used again.

  • RAJAN: A Crisis in Two Narratives

    Raghuram Rajan
    26 Jan 2012 | 5:00 pm
    RAJAN: A Crisis in Two Narratives With the world’s industrial democracies in crisis, two competing narratives of its sources – and appropriate remedies – are emerging. For better or worse, the narrative that persuades these countries’ governments and publics will determine their future – and that of the global economy.

  • VELASCO: Latin America’s Stymied Innovators

    Andrés Velasco
    26 Jan 2012 | 5:00 pm
    VELASCO: Latin America’s Stymied Innovators The main challenge facing Latin America is to transform its huge natural-resource wealth into the kind of wealth that does not run out, because it is constantly enlarged by human creativity. Indeed, if a diversified economy is the best predictor of future growth, Asia will grow much faster than Latin America for decades to come.

  • DYSON: Peeling, Meeting, and Shopping

    Esther Dyson
    25 Jan 2012 | 5:00 pm
    DYSON: Peeling, Meeting, and Shopping NEW YORK – In mid-December, while trying to understand what was happening in Russia, I checked Twitter and found a tweet that somehow signified everything. It was from a young woman, and it said, in Russian: “Gotta sleep! Tomorrow I go to [face] peeling, then to meeting, and then to shopping.” All three words – peeling, meeting, and shopping – were in fact the English words, rendered in Cyrillic.What this reveals is that the Russian protests – called “mitings” – are no longer just for old people, radical extremists, or jobless,…
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    Reed Construction Data:Notes from Alex Carrick

  • Canada’s leading indicator series continued to charge ahead in December

    rcdwebmaster@reedconstructiondata.com
    23 Jan 2012 | 11:00 am
    Canada’s leading indicator series continued to set a torrid pace in December, according to Statistics Canada. The month-to-month change was +0.8%. That’s a relatively high number historically, although it was slightly less than November’s +0.9%. Important developments in the commodities sphere are also determining the pace at which Canada's economy will expand.

  • 2012 holds promise but there’s no denying the uncertainty (part 2)

    rcdwebmaster@reedconstructiondata.com
    11 Jan 2012 | 11:00 pm
    I’m an advocate of emerging nation commodity demand as a key determinant of how Canada’s economy will fare. On that basis, 2012 is not shaping up as favorably as I might have hoped. However, with the U.S. economy coming on stronger, I think the “broader state of affairs” will continue to be okay. It’s just that we’re about to see a further prolongation of uncertain times.

  • 2012 holds promise but there’s no denying the uncertainty (part 1)

    rcdwebmaster@reedconstructiondata.com
    11 Jan 2012 | 11:00 am
    The following is an assessment of where the world economy presently stands, with additional observations on specific problem areas and how things might turn out differently than expected. Pertinent comments on the implications for Canadian construction markets are interspersed throughout.

  • How stock prices have performed depends on the timing of the data points

    rcdwebmaster@reedconstructiondata.com
    4 Jan 2012 | 11:00 am
    This is a time of year when many analysts choose to examine how well equities have performed. Year-end closing prices versus previous similar milestones are most telling. What becomes most clear is that such an assessment is all about the timing. Whether or not one is a proponent of buying company shares for their potential gains is likely to depend on the dates chosen as the reference points.

  • Canada stands firmly in the middle of the road as it enters 2012

    rcdwebmaster@reedconstructiondata.com
    22 Dec 2011 | 12:00 pm
    I’m not sure what T. S. Eliot would have thought about the matter, but 2011 is closing out with neither a bang nor a whimper. In Canada, most of the recent data series are yielding results that are in the mid-range of historical patterns.
 
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    OilPrice.com Daily News Update

  • The Global Hunt For Oil: Canadian Firm Drills First Exploration Well in Somalia

    27 Jan 2012 | 6:01 pm
    Energy companies are renowned for taking risks as they scour the globe for new opportunities.That said however, Canada’s Vancouver, BC-based Horn Petroleum Corporation, a unit of Africa Oil Inc., is in a class by itself, having begun drilling operations in Somalia’s semi-autonomous northern Puntland state.Somalia?Which has not had an effective government since 1991?Land of “Black Hawk Down,” pirates, battling militias, al Shabaab militants and U.S. drone strikes against…Read more...

  • Iran to take Action Against the West by Banning Oil Exports to the EU?

    27 Jan 2012 | 5:51 pm
    Following the recent agreement by the EU to impose trade sanctions against Iran the Iranian parliament will debate a law that could halt all oil exports to the continent. "On Sunday, parliament will have to approve a 'double emergency' bill calling for a halt in the export of Iranian oil to Europe starting next week," Hossein Ibrahimi, vice-chairman of parliament's national security and foreign policy committee, was quoted as saying. The EU accounted for 18 per cent of Iranian crude oil sales in the first half of 2011,…Read more...

  • Transmission Line Under the Mediterranean to Supply Italy with Clean Power

    27 Jan 2012 | 5:48 pm
    It seems that more and more large, renewable energy projects are being announced each day. The most recent is a giant solar power plant that will be built by Top Oilfield Services, a Tunisian oil and gas engineering company, and Nur Energie, a British solar firm. The project, called TuNur, will consist of a two gigawatt concentrated solar power (CSP) park. CSP works by thousands of heliostatic mirrors focussing the sun’s rays onto a central tower filled with fluid that then heats up and drives the turbines.  The plant will…Read more...

  • Greece - Between Iran and a Hard Place

    27 Jan 2012 | 12:58 pm
    Well, its official – on 23 January European Union foreign ministers agreed to ban the import of Iranian oil as part of sanctions designed to pressure Iran to end its alleged covert pursuit of nuclear weapons under the guise of its civilian nuclear uranium enrichment program. Measures approved by Brussels Eurocrats include an immediate ban on the signing of new supply contracts for Iranian crude oil and petroleum products for EU refineries, with existing contracts being scheduled for phasing out by 1 July. The EU currently buys around…Read more...

  • Fed Says Market Rally is BS

    27 Jan 2012 | 9:12 am
    Well, they didn’t really say that, but they could have, and perhaps should have, and the bond market wholeheartedly agrees with them. That is my takeaway from the Fed minutes released yesterday indicating that the Federal Reserve intends to extend its hyper accommodative policies for at least another 6-9 months to “late 2012.” It also lowered its long term economic growth forecast from 2.5%-2.9% down to 2.2%-2.7%, a major downshift from the 3% plus it was predicting a year ago. That also brings them nicely to my own estimate…Read more...
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    zentrader.ca | trend analysis

  • Markets Feeling Inflationary

    jeff pierce
    27 Jan 2012 | 6:48 pm
    From a mechanical perspective the markets look solid and poised for further upside. My gut says otherwise and that is what makes trading so challenging at times. As long as the markets continue their ascent with small intraday pullbacks, it removes any overbought challenges. While it feels like we’re really overbought, technically we’re not. Find out which 4 gold and silver stocks Mercenary Traders bought this week and grab a 10% discount.

  • Currency Watch

    jeff pierce
    27 Jan 2012 | 2:07 am
    With the recent breakout of $CAD’s wedge pattern it looks like it’s headed to $1.01 and maybe beyond. I like to take one resistance area at a time so we’ll see how it behaves there, but when you look at the USD below there does seem to be a lot of room to fall as I don’t see a clear level of support until we get to the $77 level. I’m not saying we’re going to go that far, but that it’s a possibility.

  • Chart of the Day

    jeff pierce
    26 Jan 2012 | 12:47 pm
    The following is a guest post from All About Trends, who teach traders how to achieve consistent gains through stock selection and daily trading education. When you become a premium member for $15/month (50% the regular price) you can expect to receive daily trade ideas and market analysis, along with a concise trading plan for each trade.   Big picture NASDAQ Composite chart At the very least you can’t say this move off the December lows doesn’t have that chasing a bus look to it now can you. Notice the zone this issue stopped at? Right back into the congestion zone of…

  • Plato: Communism and “True Love”

    jeff pierce
    26 Jan 2012 | 6:08 am
    The following is by Karen Starich who uses astrology to forecast the financial markets.  Her premium service blends astrology with technical analysis to locate points of confluence and then highlights specific trades for subscribers. Plato’s original concept of  Utopia and a purely communist state can be found in his writings on “The Republic” 360 BCE.  His work lays out the foundation for an idealized slave society where all property belongs to the state, and the people are assigned to their station in life by the ruling class. Plato no doubt had his short comings,…

  • Decisive Move For Gold

    jeff pierce
    25 Jan 2012 | 9:37 pm
    Today was significant for Gold because it broke above key resistance in a big way.  Pullbacks to the $163 level in GLD should be bought and if you’re looking at the futures $GC_F, I would say near the $1700 level. I don’t think this is going to give people the opportunity to get on board.  
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    MartinKronicle

  • Street Freak Jared Dillian Podcast Interview

    Michael Martin
    27 Jan 2012 | 12:39 am
    Jared Dillian’s brain worked very differently from most of his colleagues. He had what I’d call these emotional tectonic plates inside his head that would shift in an instant. When they shifted, they’d tremor so hard, they’d make the fault lines along the San Andreas Fault sit up straight…and that’s not counting what happened as a result from his trading. Dillian describes his personal journey in one of the most revealing memoirs I’ve read in the past decade. He is a very genuine person and his recent book Street Freak: Money & Madness at Lehman…

  • Take A Yoga Class This Weekend

    Michael Martin
    20 Jan 2012 | 5:39 pm
    The Dog Days of Yoga “…inhale and bring your head back with a long neck, shoulders wide and stretching down your back, roll up into an upward facing you, and with a deep exhale, roll your paws under lifting your hips towards the back of the yard into a downward facing you. Try not to look at me or the neighbor’s cat pose…focus only on your bad breath.” I took an afternoon class with an AMAZING teacher…set myself up for a great weekend. I’ll be writing this up shortly…Similar Posts: Reader Question: Will My Contracts Roll Automatically? US gas…

  • Registration Open For CME Group 2012 Commodities Trading Challenge

    Michael Martin
    20 Jan 2012 | 3:06 am
    The CME Group is holding its annual Commodities Trading Challenge and it looks pretty awesome. These didn’t exist when I was cutting my teeth. Teams can register now and the Practice Round starts on February 13. Here is more from their site: “The Challenge is where colleges and universities from across the country compete in a fast-paced electronic and open outcry trading competition. This competition was originally created by The New York Mercantile Exchange and the University of Houston over ten years ago with just a small number of schools on the roster. As the markets have…

  • Wisdom of Wayne Gretzky: How He Learned To Skate Where the Puck Was Going

    Michael Martin
    15 Jan 2012 | 9:37 pm
    A lot has been written about Wayne Gretzky and his ability and his athletic genius. When Gretzky married his intellectual capacity with technical ability, he dominated opponents like no other athlete in any other sport. From an early age, Gretzky developed his inner game as much as his physical skills. How Did Gretzky Attain His Inner Game? Like many successful athletes, Gretzky had some great role models, mentors, and coaches, and a phenomenal set of parents. He holds 61 NHL records and he’s said that his unofficial record of the Fastest 50 Goals will be the hardest for anyone to…

  • Sperandeo: Gold Heading Higher

    Michael Martin
    14 Jan 2012 | 9:41 pm
    Watch the latest video at video.foxbusiness.comSimilar Posts: Amazing A-HA Moment – Never Give Up And Always Believe In Yourself How Gold Is Being Traded Now My Clyde McCoy Wah-Wah Pedal Bill Dunn Managed Futures Presentation Nassim Taleb: Buffett Is Lucky – Soros Is Good
 
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    Also sprach Analyst

  • Bubbles Watching…

    Zarathustra
    27 Jan 2012 | 7:42 am
    We went to China to watch bubbles.This article originally appeared here: Bubbles Watching… Also sprach Analyst - World & China Economy, Global Finance, Real EstateRelated PostsS&P Raises More Concerns On Chinese Real Estate DevelopersMeanwhile, Trapped Wenzhou Bosses Are Liquidating PropertiesIt’s Official: Shanghai Bans Property Price Discount Of 20% Or MoreChina Real Estate: Banks Increase Mortgage RatesChina Real Estate: Some Anecdotes As Told By Deutsche Bank

  • China’s foreign exchange fell, capital outflow continued

    Zarathustra
    12 Jan 2012 | 11:46 pm
    Latest figures from the PBOC shows that FX reserve of China fell for two consecutive months, and sizeable capital outflow continued for three consecutive months.This article originally appeared here: China’s foreign exchange fell, capital outflow continued Also sprach Analyst - World & China Economy, Global Finance, Real EstateRelated PostsChina’s Foreign Exchange Reserve Actually Fell In SeptemberSome Guesses On China’s Monetary PolicyChinese Bond Buying And Exchange Rate PolicyJim Chanos: Not Impressed By The Europeans, And Still Shorting ChinaAn Economist At A Government…

  • The most ridiculous interview for the new year

    Zarathustra
    5 Jan 2012 | 9:55 pm
    Watch an underperforming fund manager losing her cool on television, saying that Hong Kong is hopeless and invisible hand is controlling the market.This article originally appeared here: The most ridiculous interview for the new year Also sprach Analyst - World & China Economy, Global Finance, Real EstateRelated PostsAlbert Edwards: BRIC = Bloody Ridiculous Investment ConceptMust Read: Market Crash Survival GuideFrom The Top To The Bottom: Are We There Yet?

  • Some Guesses On China’s Monetary Policy

    Zarathustra
    9 Dec 2011 | 2:15 am
    Further monetary easing will be possible, but that's probably more as a measure to offset the tightening bias of capital outflow and/or shrinking trade surplus.This article originally appeared here: Some Guesses On China’s Monetary Policy Also sprach Analyst - World & China Economy, Global Finance, Real EstateRelated PostsChina’s Foreign Exchange Reserve Actually Fell In SeptemberAn Economist At A Government Think-Tank Thinks Yuan Should Be DevaluedJim Chanos: Not Impressed By The Europeans, And Still Shorting ChinaOn The Disproportionately Large Attention On Chinese YuanIs…

  • China Inflation falls further to 4.2% in November

    Zarathustra
    9 Dec 2011 | 12:36 am
    Inflation in China continues to moderate in November, as the headline CPI inflation falls by 42.% yoy.This article originally appeared here: China Inflation falls further to 4.2% in November Also sprach Analyst - World & China Economy, Global Finance, Real EstateRelated PostsChina: Inflation Eased To 6.1% in SeptemberChina: Inflation Further Accelerated To 6.5% In JulyChina Inflation Eased Further To 5.5% In OctoberChina: Inflation Eased To 6.2% In AugustChina’s Inflation In October Is Set To Fall
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    The India Investment Post

  • REC / infra Projects Slowdown

    27 Jan 2012 | 12:40 am
    Is it just a coincidence that Sanctions continue to score at Rs 440 bln and disbursements at less than INR 180 bln for REC LTD for instance? I think the gap is ever widening andf th e orderbook for infracos has lost relevance, again the peculiar India context making it a matter of corporate governance Transmission assets count to 45% of the Sanctions a very high number and only one or two activated yet, that pace shld pick up soon though as it is unaffected by the current infra slowdowwn in generation thru land acquisition and coal supply delays? Permalink | Leave a comment  »

  • India Earnings Season: REC does better than the rupee.

    26 Jan 2012 | 10:00 pm
    REC's revenues grew to INR 27 bln or $520mln in the current Q3 again building a 25% topline growth in rupee terms as a rupee lender, it will not face much losses from ECb/FCCB having finely priced QIPs as it reported a INR7.7 bln for the quarter or $ 154 mln REC grew advances to INR 813 bln or $16.3 bln with Tier I&II Capital of INR 148 bln or $2.8 bln approx 3 month PAT is just $400 mln Its NIMs are low but consistent at 3% and it has not been plagued by its SEB portfolio's NPAs. REC would have been hedging its loans with SEBs as lease backs or to first lien but the rest is for a full…

  • Happy Thursdays! The weekly inflation data is gone..

    26 Jan 2012 | 2:51 am
    A lot more of the pizzazz has come back into Indian expert speak as commentators build on the value multiples in the Capital Marrkets. Now that the indices have journeyed into skyscraper Monday - Wednesday, one would wonder why investors bother with an India portfolio at all, as very few got in at 4700 and very few will now get out at 5100 , that the indices if ever will come down for further buying below 4700. India's premium also means it identifies the data series for inflation as too much scattered data on primary inflation and fuel inflation thus we now have to work with CCEA's monthly…

  • Re'soul'utions for India 63

    25 Jan 2012 | 11:01 pm
    Post Modern India or whatever else you might want to name it, India has new institutions that you cannot forego now forever, whatever be the origin of the food/ car/ industry/ and non profit effort. 1. Big cars with or without CSE's new 160k duty to penalise their driving on India's new roads, will eventually catch up in value sales with the small cars, esp in rural india with no tenacity in the urban mouse based alto and santro(i10) or Beat. Also, the SUV has to succeed before the hybrid 2. Half a dozen efforts on the UIDAI will not do. And I mean the six different agencies that are…

  • INDIA 63: Republic Day Celebrations

    25 Jan 2012 | 10:10 pm
    India's 63rd Republic Day with a mega parade in New Delhi is on. Here's wishing another year of a Great Indian Republic in all its majesty   Permalink | Leave a comment  »
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    New Economy Articles and Blogs from YES! Magazine

  • A Tale of Two Cities: Beijing and Detroit

    Helena Norberg-Hodge
    26 Jan 2012 | 8:15 pm
    Which symbolizes success, and which disintegration? It may not be what you think.<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/yes/new-economy/~4/4SGMAFDvCNo" height="1" width="1"/>

  • Beyond “Free” or “Fair” Trade: Mexican Farmers Go Local

    Mike Wold
    25 Jan 2012 | 6:41 pm
    We usually think of the demand for local, organic foods as coming from the North. But in southern Mexico, the growing localist movement is a strategy for survival.<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/yes/new-economy/~4/Ecc_bGcoZvc" height="1" width="1"/>

  • A Jump Start for the Clean Economy

    Maria Gallucci
    25 Jan 2012 | 6:40 pm
    A little-known source of clean energy funding could prove a crucial job-creation engine in the states.<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/yes/new-economy/~4/JZx1Ns5x0c8" height="1" width="1"/>

  • The State of the 99 Percent

    Sarah Anderson
    25 Jan 2012 | 6:39 pm
    The Occupy movement is clearly affecting political rhetoric ... but what about real action?<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/yes/new-economy/~4/wdvOEkDrNXg" height="1" width="1"/>

  • Occupy the Dream: MLK’s Legacy in the Age of Occupy

    aharbin
    19 Jan 2012 | 6:03 pm
    What would Martin Luther King, Jr. have made of the worldwide social movements of 2011?<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/yes/new-economy/~4/UmGiSSI5waA" height="1" width="1"/>
 
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    Central Bank News

  • Monetary Policy Week in Review - 28 January 2012

    centralbanknews.info
    27 Jan 2012 | 2:57 pm
    The past week in monetary policy saw 2 central banks cutting interest rates (Israel -25bps to 2.50%, and Thailand -25bps to 3.00%), and 1 bank cutting its reserve ratio (India cut CRR 50bps to 5.50%).  Meanwhile 7 central banks held rates unchanged (Japan 0.10%, India 8.50%, Hungary 7.00%, Turkey 5.75%, New Zealand 2.50%, USA 0-0.25%, and Hong Kong 0.50%).  The week also featured the US Federal Reserve announcing an inflation target of 2 percent and releasing its inaugural economic forecasts as part of its efforts to improve transparency.Following are some of the key quotes and…

  • HKMA Follows FOMC in Keeping Rate on Hold at 0.50%

    centralbanknews.info
    27 Jan 2012 | 12:51 pm
    The Hong Kong Monetary Authority kept its base rate steady at 0.50% following the decision of the US Federal Reserve to leave the fed funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% until late 2014.  The HKMA said (according to WSJ) the Fed forecasts "reflect the still-soft outlook of the U.S economy, which is weighed by a weak job market, a depressed housing market, the need for long-term fiscal consolidation as well as the lingering sovereign debt crisis in Europe." Adding: "In such an uncertain environment... we would like to remind the public to be careful and avoid…

  • FOMC Holds Rate at 0-0.25%, Announces Inflation Target, Releases Inaugural Fed Forecasts

    centralbanknews.info
    26 Jan 2012 | 3:03 am
    The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the fed funds rate steady at 0 to 0.25 percent. The Fed said: "To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy.  In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation…

  • RBNZ Holds OCR at 2.50%, Signals No Change

    centralbanknews.info
    26 Jan 2012 | 2:43 am
    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the Official Cash Rate (OCR) on hold at 2.50%, noting the impact of global developments.  The Bank Said: "In the domestic economy we continue to see modest growth. Over recent months there have been signs of a limited recovery in household spending and the housing market. Further ahead, repairs and reconstruction in Canterbury will also provide a significant boost for an extended period, though there may be further delays resulting from the aftershocks. Given ongoing uncertainty around global conditions and the moderate pace of domestic…

  • Bank of Thailand Cuts Interest Rate 25bps to 3.00%

    centralbanknews.info
    25 Jan 2012 | 1:52 am
    The Bank of Thailand cut its benchmark 1-day bond repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 3.00% from 3.25%.  Bank of Thailand Assistant Governor, Mr. Paiboon Kittisrikangwan, said: "The MPC assessed that inflationary pressure remains contained, while headwinds from the global economy continue to pose  risks to Thailand's economic growth. The MPC therefore voted unanimously to reduce the policy rate by 0.25 percent, from 3.25 percent to 3.00 percent per annum, effective immediately. With  private sector confidence improving but still fragile, this policy…
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    StockResearchPortal.com Blog

  • The Baltic Dry Index!

    Ian R. Campbell
    27 Jan 2012 | 8:49 am
    The Baltic Dry Index! The Baltic Dry Index tracks the cost of shipping major raw materials, and arguably is an important early measure of Global Trade. A recent article shows a chart of that index for the year 2011, and says that the index is down by approximately 40% in December from November and is down approximately 54% in Q4 2011. The author blames the European sovereign debt issues as the underlying consideration. I am not sure the reason for the recent Index decline is just an escalation of the sovereign debt issues in Europe – in fact such a conclusion intuitively seems itself to be…

  • Ray Dalio – October 20, 2011 Interview!

    Ian R. Campbell
    26 Jan 2012 | 7:08 am
    Ray Dalio – October 20, 2011 Interview! July 21, 2011 I wrote a commentary titled ‘Neat Article – Interesting Man’ – reading time for minutes. That commentary discussed referenced a lengthy article and video interview of Ray Dalio.  Dalio is the U.S. billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the largest hedge funds in the world. At the time I wrote that commentary I said Dalio was someone I thought well worth listening to, and that it would behoove any investor, trader, or human being to listen to, and think hard about his philosophy and views.  Ray Dalio is a calm,…

  • The State of The Union!

    Ian R. Campbell
    25 Jan 2012 | 9:25 am
    The State of The Union! At a personal level, I feel rather sorry for President Obama.  That said, as someone who participates in the equity markets I found last night’s State of the Union address to be little more than a political speech made by a U.S. President who for reasons best known to him wants to be re-elected in November.  His consistent message as I heard it repeated over and over was “Here are the right things to do.  If the Congress, controlled by Republicans as it currently is, sends me the legislation to sign that will enact these ‘right things to happen’ I will sign…

  • Consequence of Iranian Oil Embargo?

    Ian R. Campbell
    24 Jan 2012 | 7:34 am
    Consequence of Iranian Oil Embargo? A January 15 article written by James Hamilton, Professor of Economics at the University of California, summarizes what he thinks the consequences might be of an Iranian oil embargo.  He compares results of prior what he calls ‘episodes in which geopolitical events led to production shortfalls from key producing areas”.  The article includes charts and statistics related to these ‘episodes’, which he says occurred in 1973-74, 1978-79, 1980-81, and 1990-91. I you were born before 1950 I suggest it does not take a great memory to recall that each of…

  • Follow-up On Greece!

    Ian R. Campbell
    23 Jan 2012 | 8:09 am
    Follow-up On Greece! Following from my commentary in last Wednesday’s e-mail titled ‘More on Possible Greece Default!’, an article last Thursday sets out in considerably more detail much of what I said, and reports on the Wednesday meeting that I referenced in my article between Greek officials and private bondholders.   I found the detail commentary in this article useful, and recommend you take the time to read it carefully. The article concludes that “it will take stocks the usual 6 to 8 weeks to grasp what is patently obvious to anyone who is put in even 10 min. of work in…
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    Business Insider

  • Union Membership Climbed In 2011, But Membership Rates Declined

    Rob Wile
    28 Jan 2012 | 5:49 am
    In 2011, union membership increased 49,000 last year to 14.76 million. However, the Union membership rate declined by just 10 basis points in 2011 to 11.8% according to BLS data. In 1983, the first year for which comparable data is available, union membership stood at 20.1%. Among the survey's other findings: Public sector workers had a union membership rate five times higher than the private sector — 37 % versus 6.9 %. Teachers and librarians had the highest unionization rate at 36.8 %, while sales workers had the lowest at 3 %. Demographically, Black men showed the highest rate at…

  • 18 Unique Insights That Challenged Conventional Wisdom On The Markets And The Economy

    Eric Platt
    28 Jan 2012 | 5:23 am
    We thought we had it all figured out before this week started. We were wrong. The top minds in the investment business offered some novel analysis, broke conventional wisdom, and even opened our eyes to some misperceptions. This particular week, we learned there may be a simple explanation why the Baltic Dry Index is getting crushed, 2013 may be the real year to be worried about, and that one fact refutes the idea of a Chinese real estate bubble. What follows are excerpts from such stories this week.  All of the important stuff you might have missed this week, right here.Fast food may be…

  • CARTOONS OF THE WEEK: Newt The Outsider And Newt The Insider

    Eric Goldschein
    28 Jan 2012 | 4:00 am
    We have a ton of new cartoons this week, and the star of the show has to be Newt Gingrich, he of the open-marriage and the status of both a Washington insider and outsider. Other hot topics from the past few days include the arguments over online piracy and continued trouble in the Eurozone — particularly in Italy.  Our favorites from this batch include an actual pirate ship, a graph made of urine and the role of Islamic mathematics in WMD's. See the rest of the story at Business Insider Please follow Business Insider on Twitter and Facebook.See Also:50 Million Americans Still…

  • Experts Are Terrified By Greece And Its Debt Problems

    AP
    28 Jan 2012 | 1:48 am
    NEW YORK (AP) — Remember Greece? It's been two years since a financial crisis erupted in the birthplace of drama, and the final act is still unfinished. A second week of talks in Athens ended Friday with no deal between the country, the European Union and private holders of Greek bonds. Remarkably, even after the crisis became such an international worry last year that the leaders of France and Germany were actually referred to as "Merkozy," the European debt bomb could still explode, with Greece as the fuse. Economists and investors see a Greek default as the biggest test of the world…

  • Google: Users Are 'Delighted' With Our Search Changes (GOOG)

    Matt Rosoff
    28 Jan 2012 | 12:36 am
    A couple weeks ago, Google started blending social information from Google+ into search results. The blogosphere's reaction to this change, which Google called Search Plus Your World, was swift, loud, and mostly negative. Twitter complained that Google was unfairly favoring its own social network over competitors, then a programmer at Facebook seemed to prove it. Worse yet, the results seemed to be less relevant in a lot of cases, leading a number of people to declare Bing the better search engine. But in all the noise, what do users think? According to Google search fellow Amit Singhal, who…
 
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    The Conversation - Business + Economy

  • Minister for Small Business? More like the Minister for Nothing

    Evan Jones, Honorary associate, Department of Political Economy at University of Sydney
    26 Jan 2012 | 8:49 pm
    In December 2011, Prime Minister Julia Gillard reshuffled her ministry. Naturally, senior Cabinet posts and significant demotions attracted attention. Unnoticed was that small business received a new minister: Senator Mark Arbib. What do small business ministers do? Typically, nothing. The ministry appears now as a token sop to small business. It doesn’t help that such ministers also have other responsibilities. Senator Arbib is also Assistant Treasurer, Manager of Government Business in the Senate and Minister for Sport. Small business will struggle for attention with this schedule. The…

  • Housing bubble trouble: separating facts from fiction

    Philip Soos, Researcher, School of International & Political Studies at Deakin University
    26 Jan 2012 | 1:35 pm
    In a previous article, I analysed four of the common arguments used by those who deny there is a bubble in Australia’s residential property market. The bubble deniers have employed other explanations for the largest run-up in prices in Australia’s 131 years of land sales records. Restrictive government regulations One argument is that restrictive government regulations (RGR) limit the supply of land and timely dwelling construction through zoning controls, development, planning and building laws, driving up housing prices. This idea gained popularity in the US during the property boom,…

  • Protectionism: a matter of national pride

    Vincent O'Donnell, Independent media analysis associated with the School of Media and Communication at RMIT University
    24 Jan 2012 | 9:26 pm
    In Australia’s political history, elements of both Coalition and Labor governments have used arguments of cultural identity and national pride to justify policies of economic protectionism. The practice continues today. Take, for instance, this utterance: “The pragmatic zealot view would mean that there was no arts industry, no public transport, no environmental programs because none of those things pay for themselves.” The speaker might have added “no Australian film production industry”. The “pragmatic zealots” are one large faction of the Liberal Party committed to resisting…

  • Australian car industry needs lower emissions, not handouts

    Anna Mortimore, Lecturer, Griffith Business School at Griffith University
    24 Jan 2012 | 9:15 pm
    The Australian Government has been bailing out automotive manufacturers since 1985. Both that year’s Button Plan and the 2008 Bracks Report recommended restructure and additional funding. But unless the Australian industry accepts the reality of today’s automotive market, bailouts will make little difference and we’ll continue to see closures and job losses. The global market shift to low-emitting, fuel-efficient vehicles is going to make it difficult for the local car industry – which produces predominantly large, high-emitting vehicles – to compete internationally. Not…

  • What's data got to do with it? Reassessing the NT intervention

    Eva Cox, Research Fellow Jumbunna IHL UTS at University of Technology, Sydney
    24 Jan 2012 | 1:36 pm
    Since its introduction in 2007, there has been much debate over the effectiveness of the Northern Territory Emergency Response (NTER) in improving the quality of life in remote indigenous communities. Public discussion on using good evidence for policymaking has so far not encouraged Indigenous Affairs Minister Jenny Macklin to improve the quality of Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs (FaHCSIA) data. Given the failure rate of policymaking in this area, these data deficits are problematic. Questions on the value of many of the measures in the NTER have been raised in…
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    Mindful Money » Shaun Richards

  • More evidence emerges that Spain and Portugal may bypass recession and go straight to depression

    Shaun Richards
    27 Jan 2012 | 5:25 am
    One of the themes of this blog has been concern over the economic situation in the Iberian peninsula where both Spain and Portugal have serious problems to address. This is not as clear-cut as you might think as whilst the situation is opaque and apparently not recorded well they seem to trade together less than you might assume. However there has been an increase in trade in the Euro era, which I record as it is rare these days to read of a benefit from the Euro. Portugal I expressed my fears for Portugal back on the 17th of January when I described the decline of her economy thus. Indeed…

  • The United States Federal Reserve has QE3 (more monetary easing) ready on the slipway

    Shaun Richards
    26 Jan 2012 | 5:10 am
    Last Friday I offered the opinion that I expected the US central bank to ease policy further in 2012. At the end of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) Meeting and these days also after the press conference you might after looking at some financial markets be forgiven for believing it had already announced significant new policy initiatives. Precious Metals surge and the US Stock Market rallies The price of gold rose strongly yesterday and the front month futures price rose by over 2% from US $1672 to US $1706. The price of the front month silver contract rose even more strongly…

  • UK GDP is performing poorly as a consequence of the wrong economic policy being pursued

    Shaun Richards
    25 Jan 2012 | 5:07 am
    Today I wish to look at the UK and its current economic policy and in doing so I think I can slay or at least address some of the dragons of the mainstream media. Let me address one via pointing out that the International Monetary Fund has just reduced its forecast for economic growth in 2012 in the UK from 1.6% in September 2011 to 0.6% now. The reverence with this was treated forgets that they are saying they were wrong only 4 months ago but that we should trust a forecast for the next 11 months or 2.75 times as long! Actually there was an example of a complete volte face tucked away in…

  • Why Greece has a one-year bond yield some 425% above that of Germany.Currency Union anyone?

    Shaun Richards
    24 Jan 2012 | 5:13 am
    Today has opened with news which hits on a very familiar theme and it is one of the main consequences of the falwer nature of the Euro project. One may call it lack of competitiveness in Southern Europe or you can call it two-speed Europe although actually it has been showing signs of splitting even further. This, of course, is a long way from the economic convergence dreams (which frankly always had an element of fantasy about them) of the original Euro architects. Today’s data Let us first have some relatively good news. The Markit Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index Composite Output…

  • Switzerland may be about to face the currency demons of her past and much of Europe will face them with her

    Shaun Richards
    23 Jan 2012 | 5:08 am
    Later this week many of the world’s leaders and economists will decamp to Davos in Switzerland for the World Economics Forum. It strikes me as rather odd that a group which spend much of their time warning about global warming are ready to supply so much hot air to an Alpine resort, but there you go! I too wish to consider Switzerland but for another reason and that is my long-running theme about the strength of the Swiss Franc and the problems that it has created around Europe with Eastern Europe being particularly affected. Why now? The Swiss Franc has been edging towards the 1.20…
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    SUDO EXEC

  • Ten Comic Books I’m Excited About Continuing

    Kyle Ruiz
    11 Jan 2012 | 12:00 am
    Another year has passed! In 2011, Marvel continued to dominate in terms of sales (at least until September came). Probably due to their excessive events and overpriced books, but they also deliver some of the best superhero stories this year.But DC had the biggest change as it underwent a major overhaul last September.  They rebooted their entire Universe in order to fix the books that needed fixing.  Some, like Green Lantern and a lot of the Batman books, made it through with their previous comic history intact.  Others, like the Super books, saw their character’s backstories…

  • Not Ticklish: The Lester Story

    Kyle Russell
    9 Jan 2012 | 2:06 pm
    Probably the best student-made short film I’ve ever seen.

  • Half-Life posters inspired by The Dark Knight

    Kyle Russell
    2 Jan 2012 | 8:12 pm
    Via Geek Piñata:These are fantastic. If only I had time to play through the series again.Also, 100th post!

  • 2011 11-inch MacBook Air RAM usage

    Kyle Russell
    2 Jan 2012 | 4:10 pm
    I’ve been wondering about this for a while now: Is the 4GB of RAM  that the mid-2011 MacBook Air maxes out at really enough for the average user nowadays?Apple’s 11-inch beauty has been my go-to machine since some time in September, but I’ve been wary of pushing it too much out of my hatred of dealing with sluggishness. Out of curiosity (and a bit of boredom), I decided to open everything I use on a regular basis at once. The result is pictured above; still more than a gigabyte of RAM available for use.What I had open:Safari with 4 tabs openSpotifySkypeAcornActivtiy…

  • Getting pumped for 2012

    Kyle Russell
    1 Jan 2012 | 5:05 pm
    There goes another year.2011 went pretty well, all things considered. I graduated from high school without a hitch, got into Berkeley, met some great people. Started this site and took it through various incarnations. I became familiar with Weebly (sucks for blogging), tumblr (much better, but I wanted more control), and WordPress (fantastic, and always getting better). I got an amazing internship at Bitmob. After taking two months off of blogging for school, I returned to post more than ever before and picked up two new writers along the way.Now we’ve more than tripled monthly page…
 
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    The Best Rates Today's Banks Mortgage Loans Interest

  • Mortgage rates bloom despite Fed's gloom

    The Best Rates
    27 Jan 2012 | 7:18 am
    "A Greek default is not scaring people as much as it used to," he says. "It's like, if you talk about something enough, you get used to it, even if it's bad. They keep kicking the can down the road, but nothing is actually happening yet."Sinnott says this week's rate increase already affected the volume of refinance applications.The volume of mortgage applications declined 5 percent last week, compared to the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.Higher fees add pressure to ratesAnother factor adding pressure to rates is a recent increase in fees Fannie Mae and Freddie…

  • Mortgage rates 'to be volatile'

    The Best Rates
    27 Jan 2012 | 7:18 am
    27 January 2012 Last updated at 06:58 ET Brokers are revelation new borrowers to expect mortgage rates to fluctuate in the coming months, owing to economic uncertainty. A number of vital lenders have increased the cost of a mortgage for new borrowers in recent days. Brokers suggest that the increased activity is likely to be followed by an "ebb and flow" in the mortgage market in the first half of 2012. Lenders are concerned about the cost of funds to lend in the current climate. Uncertainty…

  • Mortgage deal draws detractors from all sides

    The Best Rates
    27 Jan 2012 | 7:14 am
    In this Sept. 14, 2010 file photo, a house in Homestead, Fla. sits empty, for sale as a foreclosure home in a neighborhood where half of the houses were empty and up for foreclosure. A draft settlement between states and mortgage companies that would let the nation's biggest banks pay out billions to compensate for a raft of foreclosures has public interest groups across the political spectrum hopping mad over a deal they say was forged behind closed doors and is being strong-armed by the Obama administration. The draft proposal, which was sent to state officials Monday for approval,…

  • Mortgage rates 'to be volatile'

    The Best Rates
    27 Jan 2012 | 7:14 am
    27 January 2012 Last updated at 06:58 ET Brokers are telling new borrowers to expect mortgage rates to fluctuate in a coming months, owing to economic uncertainty. A number of major lenders have increased a cost of a mortgage for new borrowers in recent days. Brokers suggest that a increased activity is likely to be followed by an "ebb and flow" in a mortgage market in a first half of 2012. Lenders are concerned about a cost of funds to lend in a current climate. Uncertainty in a eurozone…

  • Fed: Rates likely to remain near zero through 2014; inflation target set at 2%

    The Best Rates
    26 Jan 2012 | 5:32 am
    Were certainly prepared to look for different ways to provide support to the economy if, in fact, we have this unsatisfactory situation, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke pronounced after the policymaking session.At its first policymaking session of the year, the Fed signaled which it was not planning to rest despite the recent bright spots in the economy. The unemployment rate, for instance, has recently fallen to its lowest level in nearly two years.But Fed policymakers project which the unemployment rate will remain at 8.5percent for much of this year and only fall to between 6.7and 7.6percent…
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    SurvivalBlog.com

  • Note From JWR:

    James Wesley, Rawles
    28 Jan 2012 | 7:59 pm
    Today we present another two entries for Round 39 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include: First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner's choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) A 9-Tray…

  • Learning From Our Elders in Prepping for TEOTWAWKI, by the Measure Man

    James Wesley, Rawles
    28 Jan 2012 | 7:56 pm
    Let me begin with a brief history and a few insights into my journey towards being prepared for The End of the World as We Know It (TEOTWAWKI.) I was born and raised, until the age of 7, in one of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States (the greater Los Angeles area). At which point my parents came to the realization that city life was no way to raise a family. So, they moved my sister and I to the Central San Joaquin Valley and began my education in rural life. At age 18 I joined the military and was able to witness rural life in Texas, Illinois and finally South Dakota (where I…

  • Survival Insights of an American Genius, by Wayne M. Thomas

    James Wesley, Rawles
    28 Jan 2012 | 7:55 pm
    Many people remember the book Walden as the story of a hermit living in a hut who survived on twigs and berries in the Concord, Massachusetts woods. Its author, Henry David Thoreau, was no hermit, but a survivalist and philosopher who personified the best of American values of self-reliance, simplicity, love of the land, individualism and defense of personal liberty against governmental overreaching. He lived simply on Walden Pond from 1845-1847 without a GPS, iPod, iPhone, laptop or wi-fi.. Long before we developed a dependence on electronic devices, Thoreau defined some first principles for…

  • Economics and Investing:

    James Wesley, Rawles
    28 Jan 2012 | 7:49 pm
    AmEx (American Expat) suggested an essay from Forbes in which the author makes some good points about going back to the gold standard: Gingrich, The Gold Standard, And The Florida Primary The great deleveraging event – household debt has fallen 4 percent since recession hit. Household debt has fallen dramatically from the peak when household debt aligned itself with annual GDP. G.G. flagged this: Tax Evaders Renounce U.S. Citizenship Baltic Dry Plunges 42% More Than Seasonal Norm To Start The Year. Items from The Economatrix: Greek Bond Talks Break Down, But Markets Shrug It Off Why…

  • Odds 'n Sods:

    James Wesley, Rawles
    28 Jan 2012 | 7:49 pm
    I heard that there is another Self Reliance Expo scheduled for February 10-11 in Dallas, Texas. The keynote speaker Mike Adams of Natural News.    o o o Bob G. flagged this video by Wayne Allyn Root: Home Schooling To Harvard.    o o o Reader Alan W. mentioned an improvement to the classic USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map. "For the first time, the map is available as an interactive GIS-based map, for which a broadband Internet connection is recommended, and as static images for those with slower Internet access."    o o os Cheryl (aka The Economatrix) sent…
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    Trading Heroes

  • The “Freeway Panda” Trade

    Hugh
    27 Jan 2012 | 10:18 pm
    Why is it called that?  Because consistent profits through good trading is just like Freeway Panda.  This is a giant stuffed panda that I always see when I am driving on the freeway.  I was just driving along one day and I saw it out of the corner of my eye.  Of course, my [...]Read More >>

  • How To Calculate Risk In Forex

    Hugh
    23 Jan 2012 | 10:18 pm
    I occasionally drop in on a couple of the Forex forums out there to find out where beginning Forex traders need help and I try to answer questions when I can give a good response.  One of the questions that comes up often has to do with calculating risk.There is a lot of [...]Read More >>

  • The “Man On Wire” Trade

    Hugh
    20 Jan 2012 | 3:09 am
    Trading Forex can seem like a tightrope walk sometimes.  You are always balancing between taking the profit you’ve got and hanging on for more.  One false move and you could die!  OK, I got a little carried away…it’s dangerous, but it’s not “falling hundreds of feet to your death” dangerous.If you have never [...]Read More >>

  • How To Penis Prank A Trader On CNBC…And A Trade

    Hugh
    16 Jan 2012 | 10:18 pm
    This post is a little experiment in making my trade reviews more interesting.  I found myself falling asleep yesterday doing my own trade review.  Yeah, doing my own review!   If I can’t even sit through my own trade reviews, how can I expect you to?But I don’t feel too bad.  I have seen [...]Read More >>

  • How To Put Together Your Very Own Half-Assed Forex Scam

    Hugh
    9 Jan 2012 | 10:18 pm
    My biggest pet peeve by far, when it comes to the Forex market, is all of the scams that people try to pull.  Forex is one of the best markets to trade and these slimeballs take people’s money before they ever have a chance at becoming successful.The reason that there are so many [...]Read More >>
 
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    Open Markets

  • Video: 2011 Interest Rate Product Highlights

    CME Group
    26 Jan 2012 | 8:00 am
    Over the next few weeks, Open Markets will be featuring video interviews with CME Group product heads as they recall the events that shaped 2011, and look ahead to 2012.  This week, Sean Tully, managing director of interest rate products, highlights CME Group’s interest rates business. 2011 was a big year for our interest rate contracts [...]

  • For Risk Managers, A Look at Gold Consumption in 2011 and an Outlook for 2012

    Harriet Hunnable
    20 Jan 2012 | 10:00 am
    I was delighted to speak in Hong Kong earlier this week at the Asian launch of the Thomson Reuters GFMS Gold Survey – a long-established and highly-regarded source of analysis on the gold markets.  CME Group is a sponsor of this year’s edition, but the value for us goes far deeper than this. The report – [...]

  • China’s Premier Steel Data Provider Promises New Opportunities

    Harriet Hunnable
    20 Jan 2012 | 6:00 am
    Today we announced CME Group’s first-ever licensing deal with a mainland China-based price and index vendor.  Mysteel is China’s leading service provider in the steel e-commerce sector.  Based in Shanghai, it has established strategic partnerships with more than 20 metallurgic bodies in China and more than 600,000 registered members and information-collecting systems covering over sixty [...]

  • Coking Coal Volumes Signal an Industry’s Response to Change

    Harriet Hunnable
    13 Jan 2012 | 9:28 am
    The news this week that CME Group had passed the milestone of 100,000 metric tons of coking coal swaps cleared since we launched the service in August 2011 was a welcome endorsement of the rationale behind the development of this new product – and a tribute to the industry which has embraced the change with [...]

  • Fed Rate Forecasts: What Impact Will They Have?

    Sean Tully
    12 Jan 2012 | 9:53 am
    The Federal Reserve announced recently that beginning later this month, it will begin publishing end-of-year forecasts for short-term interest rates. Following its Jan. 24-25 meeting, the Fed will make public the projections of each of its 17 policymakers – five governors in Washington, and the 12 regional bank presidents – for rates in the fourth [...]
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    azizonomics

  • The Shape of Eurasia

    azizonomics
    27 Jan 2012 | 3:18 pm
    Western journalists might denounce it as stump rhetoric. But I don’t think Vladimir Putin is beating a drum or rattling a sabre. I think he is deadly serious: what’s more I think he is in a position of strength, not weakness. From Bloomberg: Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is stepping up rhetoric against the U.S. as his campaign for the March 4 presidential election intensifies after the biggest protests against his rule. The U.S. “wants to control everything” and takes decisions unilaterally on key questions, Putin said on a campaign stop yesterday in the Siberian…

  • When Will it be Time to Bomb Iran?

    azizonomics
    25 Jan 2012 | 11:34 am
    Jeffrey Goldberg — having already shrilly called for war with Iran — doubles back on himself: The nuclear experts I respect most, including Bruce Blair, of Global Zero, and David Albright, of the Institute for Science and International Security, both call a Middle East in which Iran possesses a small number of nuclear weapons a dangerously unstable place. Here is what Albright told me Monday about Iran’s particular challenges in an escalating confrontation — the no second-strike conundrum: “In a crisis, you don’t want to go first, but you don’t want to go second,…

  • America’s Wilting Ambition

    azizonomics
    24 Jan 2012 | 5:10 pm
    Regular readers will be aware that while I generally believe more in private industry and the free market than government largesse — mainly because central planning tends to lead to capital misallocation — there are some projects that need to be undertaken that are simply too big for anyone other than government. Space exploration is one example. Here’s NASA’s budget as a percentage of GDP: America went to the moon. Then it stopped caring about space, and started caring about spreading itself about the world in military adventurism. Instead, other nations began racing ahead:…

  • The Changing World

    azizonomics
    22 Jan 2012 | 6:51 pm
    The world is changing, and politicians can’t keep up. From the New York Times: When Barack Obama joined Silicon Valley’s top luminaries for dinner in California last February, each guest was asked to come with a question for the president. But as Steven P. Jobs of Apple spoke, President Obama interrupted with an inquiry of his own: what would it take to make iPhones in the United States? Not long ago, Apple boasted that its products were made in America. Today, few are. Almost all of the 70 million iPhones, 30 million iPads and 59 million other products Apple sold last year…

  • Deleveraging?

    azizonomics
    21 Jan 2012 | 11:26 am
    Paul Krugman says that America — with its lukewarm stimulus — is doing better at deleveraging than more austerity-prone nations. That is broadly correct. Austerity post-bubble is a cure for nothing. But America is still doing very badly. In the deleveraging horse race, America is “doing better” than horses that ditched their riders into the mud. From the Economist: And — given that I know that the UK’s total-debt-to-GDP is more like 1000% — these figures might understate the problem. Of course, progress in deleveraging is a slow process, as the example of the…
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    What is Economics?

  • Risk Tolerance Linked to Age and State of Economy [Study]

    chase
    27 Jan 2012 | 1:47 pm
    In the current troubled United States economy, many investors have become more cautious about investing in the stock market. Often, this caution leads to unwise investment strategies, according to a new study from the University of Missouri that was published in the Journal of Socio-Economics. Researchers have determined that age and the state of the economy have a direct impact on investors’ willingness to take financial risks. According to investigator Rui Yao, an investor’s risk tolerance tends to get lower with increasing age. This is partially because people who are retired or…

  • Hedge Fund Managers Using Insider Information for Personal Gain [Study]

    chase
    17 Jan 2012 | 9:50 pm
    When it comes to high finance, most people approve of stock brokers and investment fund managers having a personal stake in the funds they invest as an incentive to act in the best interests of investors. However, a new study by researchers from Boston College and EDHEC Business School in France reveals how such a setup can backfire. Share-restricted hedge fund managers who invest in their own funds often use insider knowledge to protect their own holdings first, leading to lower returns for other investors. The purpose of hedge funds is to generate high returns for shareholders, even in the…

  • Americans Propose Funding Research as Economic Solution

    chase
    12 Jan 2012 | 2:32 pm
    These days, it seems nearly everyone has a plan to improve the U.S. economy. Yet what average Americans deem important to solving the nation’s problems–especially when it comes to health care–appears vastly different from what the field of presidential candidates is currently proposing. While Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich advocate cutting taxes, spending and regulation as a way to create jobs, a majority of citizens believe economic growth hinges on more public money funding health and science research. According to a compilation of public opinion polls by…

  • Economic, Gender Inequality Among College Graduates

    chase
    6 Jan 2012 | 1:13 pm
    Studies released in December 2011 showed that the difference in college completion rates between students from high-income and from low-income families grew dramatically in the past fifty years. This is an important marker for the business world, as it indicates decreased levels of economic mobility through enrollment in college. When it comes to acquiring business insurance, this is an important new factor in the job market for college-educated employees. More information on this trend can be seen at BusinessInsurance.org. Martha Bailey and Susan Dynarski, the researchers who undertook the…

  • Self-Regulated Markets as Safe as State-Regulated Markets, Study Says

    chase
    3 Jan 2012 | 10:44 pm
    Any time stock market shifts lead to widespread losses, public demand for regulatory measures grows. Tighter regulatory control is probably not the financial panacea the public imagines, however, according to a study conducted at the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods. “Economic history shows us that strictly regulated stock markets do not necessarily function better than those that are given a free hand,” said economist Carsten Burhop, who coauthored the study, along with David Chambers and Brian Cheffins. The researchers studied stock market patterns from…
 
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    eWallstreeter

  • Number of the Week: Dismal New Home Sales in 2011

    28 Jan 2012 | 4:00 am
    New home sales in 2011 hit their lowest level on record, but it's difficult to express just how bad that is. - Selected by eWallstreeter.com -

  • Capital Account: Snow stories from Davos and "muddle-through" economics with Mish

    28 Jan 2012 | 2:35 am
    I was on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster once again on Friday. She was covering the economic forum in Davos so the interview was with Demetri Kofinas. I come in about the 17 minute mark. Link if video does not play: Snow stories from Davos and "muddle-through" economics with Mish I believe the "RT" channel is picked up on Comcast but I could not find it on ATT U-verse. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post ListMike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka…

  • Experts Are Terrified By Greece And Its Debt Problems

    28 Jan 2012 | 1:48 am
    NEW YORK (AP) — Remember Greece? It's been two years since a financial crisis erupted in the birthplace of drama, and the final act is still unfinished. A second week of talks in Athens ended Friday with no deal between the country, the European Union and private holders of Greek bonds. Remarkably, even after the crisis became such an international worry last year that the leaders of France and Germany were actually referred to as "Merkozy," the European debt bomb could still explode, with Greece as the fuse. Economists and investors see a Greek default as the biggest test of the world…

  • Has It Comes Down To this - Is Greece About To Become The Eurozone's First Vassal State ?

    27 Jan 2012 | 7:25 pm
    (Reuters) - Germany is pushing for Greece to relinquish control over its budget policy to European institutions as part of discussions over a second rescue package, a European source told Reuters on Friday."There are internal discussions within the Euro group and proposals, one of which comes from Germany, on how to constructively treat country aid programs that are continuously off track, whether this can simply be ignored or whether we say that's enough," the source said.The source added that under the proposals European institutions already operating in Greece should be…

  • "Elite Wall Street Donations Jumped 700% in the Last 20 Years"

    27 Jan 2012 | 6:46 pm
    Via Derek Thompson: Elite Wall Street Donations Jumped 700% in the Last 20 Years, by Derek Thompson: Banks "frankly own the place," Sen. Dick Durbin famously said of Washington during the debate over financial regulation in 2010. And when it... - Selected by eWallstreeter.com -
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    The Monetary Future

  • paysafecard Could Be Huge

    27 Jan 2012 | 4:56 am
    By Jon Matonis Yes, that is my professional opinion for the potential of paysafecard. How do they become huge? All they have to do is adjust their 'Webshop' Terms and Conditions allowing online merchants to accept paysafecard for the sale of the bitcoin product. The global demand is certainly there. Sadly, paysafecard does not permit their product to be used for the purchase of bitcoin today because they do not view bitcoin as a valid consumer end-product -- but as a monetary intermediary. However, bitcoin is not defined in any jurisdiction as a monetary instrument, currency, or prepaid item…

  • Bitcoin: A Universal Complementary Currency?

    22 Jan 2012 | 9:43 am
    By Pierre Noizat ParisTech Review Friday, January 20, 2012 http://www.paristechreview.com/2012/01/20/bitcoin-universal-complementary-currency/  Bitcoin is a new payment application available on the internet since January 2009. In a way, by virtue of its open source publication, it is similar to the World Wide Web, the hugely successful internet application of the internet that now enables so many others. Much like the WWW has redefined the way mankind produces and shares knowledge, bitcoin transforms the social code underlying money supply to bring about a new degree of economic freedom.

  • A Virtual Fortune: Property Rights in Virtual Economies

    20 Jan 2012 | 9:53 am
    Press Release The Public Interest Advocacy Centre Wednesday, January 11, 2012 http://www.piac.ca/consumers/consumers_should_be_wary_of_risks_in_virtual_worlds/ The Public Interest Advocacy Centre (PIAC) today released a report entitled “A Virtual Fortune: Consumer Protection for Banking and Consumer Fraud in Virtual Worlds”. The report studies virtual worlds, which are sometimes described as “massively multiplayer online role-playing games” (MMORPGs) that provide an immersive virtual experience for many players that many players consider to be “real”. Many virtual worlds have…

  • The Final Days of e-gold: Interview with Doug Jackson

    18 Jan 2012 | 2:30 am
    Douglas Jackson Interview 2012 e-Gold

  • Could Bitcoin be the Future of Internet Betting?

    16 Jan 2012 | 7:36 am
    Hartley Henderson has published a prospicient article at Off Shore Gaming Association, "Could Virtual Currency be the Future of Internet Betting?". The author has identified a man known as R.C. who emphatically endorses bitcoin as a means of payment for online gambling and casinos across almost all jurisdictions. This supports our thesis that bitcoin is the digital equivalent of a physical casino chip. Henderson summarizes his discussion: 'If I had any say, all transactions at our book would be done in bitcoins,' the man said. 'They are untraceable and totally out of the control of any…
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    richardblundell.net

  • Australian retailers vs Online imports: why the landlord not the taxman is to blame

    Richard
    19 Jan 2012 | 6:06 pm
    Australian specialty retailers pay over twice the rent of the US Staffing costs in Australia are much higher than the UK High costs spill over into higher prices in store for Australian consumers any retailers the world over have had a bad Christmas: consumer spending is subdued and customers are buying from cheaper online stores [...]

  • Not all manufacturing was worth the West holding on to

    Richard
    10 Jan 2012 | 12:07 am
    There has been a lot of talk from politicians in the UK and US about ‘rebalancing the economy’ back to manufacturing. David Cameron was at it again this week: “What we need to happen in Britain is a rebalancing of the economy, away from excessive borrowing, financial services and consumption and towards business investment and [...]

  • Why there may be no major book and music stores by 2015

    Richard
    30 Dec 2011 | 5:06 am
    Cast your mind back to 2005. It wasn’t that long ago. If someone said to you then that by 2015 there would be no major retail chains selling books, music and video, would you have believed them? What about now? The last three years has seen the demise of several book music and video chains, [...]

  • 2011: the year we ditched the landline, lost interest in SMS and adopted the smartphone

    Richard
    18 Dec 2011 | 1:52 am
    We have become so used to rapid changes in technology that we can lose perspective on shifts and trends. Nearly every day we see a new app, every month a major new device is launched, and every few months many of us make another fundamental change in how we use technology. Telecoms businesses bear the [...]

  • A pub applies ‘Pay What You Want’ economics to beer

    Richard
    11 Dec 2011 | 2:24 am
    Today’s Melbourne Sunday Age carried a feature on a pub that was allowing punters to pay what they liked for a beer. This is another great experiment in ‘pay what you want‘ or ‘pay what you think its worth‘ economics which mixes the ultimate pricing discrimination approach with human psychology and great marketing. And of course [...]
 
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