Economics

  • Most Topular Stories

  • The Truth About JP Morgan’s $2 Billion Loss

    The Big Picture
    Washingtons Blog
    16 May 2012 | 12:30 am
    Posted on May 15, 2012 by WashingtonsBlog Must-Read Background Before we can understand what’s really going on with JP Morgan’s loss (which will probably end up being a lot more than $2 billion), we need a little background. JP Morgan: Is the world’s largest publicly-traded company Is the largest bank in the U.S. … the biggest of the too big to fail banks which are killing the American economy Is the largest derivatives dealer in the world (and see this), and derivatives are inherently destabilizing for the economy Essentially wrote the faux “reform” legislation for derivatives,…

  • Stagnant Wages Limit Consumer Spending

    Real Time Economics
    Kathleen Madigan
    15 May 2012 | 3:13 pm
    Hourly pay and hours worked flat-lined, meaning real weekly pay was unchanged in April. Since peaking in October 2010, real pay has declined by 1.2%.

  • Evan Soltas provides the best argument for NGDP targeting

    TheMoneyIllusion
    ssumner
    15 May 2012 | 11:15 am
    When Evan Soltas first asked me to add his blog to my blogroll, I politely declined.  I thought it was cute that a high school senior was attempting blogging, but come on, let’s be serious. Big mistake.  Unfortunately, his blog is so consistently good that it can no longer be ignored.  A few days ago Evan provided six arguments in favor of NGDP targeting.  Nick Rowe pointed out that the sixth (which Evan thought up himself) was a sort of refutation of Schumpeterian economics.  Evan follows up with a post that quotes from an appalling piece in the Boston Globe: Today, few mainstream…

  • How Older Workers Weather Layoffs

    Economix
    By MOTOKO RICH
    15 May 2012 | 5:20 pm
    A Government Accountability Office report looks at the difficulties they face finding new jobs, and how their financial security in retirement may be compromised.

  • Tuesday, May 15, 2012 - JPMorgan is Scary, the California Budget is Easy - by Sinclair Noe

    bank-o-meter.com
    Sinclair Noe
    15 May 2012 | 6:32 pm
    05152012 ScriptDOW – 63 = 12,632SPX – 7 = 1330NAS – 8 = 289310 YR YLD =.01 = 1.78%OIL - .57 = 93.41GOLD – 12.20 = 1545.30SILV -.46 = 27.82PLAT – 5.00 = 1437.00So, JPMorgan shareholders held their annual meeting. They decided to pay Jamie Dimon $23 million. They can still afford it; despite a $2 billion dollar loss, JPMorgan is still the largest publicly traded company, the largest bank in the US, and the largest derivatives dealer in the world. JPMorgan invented credit default swaps, they wrote the legislation to reform the derivatives markets, and when JPMorgan went insolvent in…
 
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    naked capitalism

  • Links 5/16/12

    Yves Smith
    16 May 2012 | 3:14 am
    Fawns use ‘escape plan’ to evade predators BBC Mysterious illness strikes hundreds of flight attendants, causes rashes and hair loss – are ‘toxic uniforms’ really to blame or is it Fukushima? Natural News (furzy mouse). The piece is a bit histrionic, but that does not mean this is not a possibility. Ahead of I.P.O., G.M. to Quit Advertising on Facebook New York Times. What do you want to bet GM used the IPO (as well as the extant doubts about the ad model) to negotiate for better ad rates and Facebook refused to budge? “France’s Hollande’s plane…

  • Why is Paul Krugman Misrepresenting the Demise of a Wall Street Funded, Right Wing, Entitlement-Bashing Front Group?

    Yves Smith
    16 May 2012 | 3:01 am
    Paul Krugman’s partisanship has become so shameless that we are giving him the inaugural Eric Schneiderman Decoy Award for his post “Things Fall Apart“. The Schneiderman Decoy Award goes for exceptional achievement in turning one’s good name over to particularly rancid Obama Administration initiatives. Krugman’s post didn’t merely contain some cringe-making fawning over Obama; it was egregiously incorrect on the development that prompted the post, that of the death of Americans Elect, a shadowy group that had was out to sponsor a Presidential candidate.

  • Mark Ames: Failing Up With Citigroup’s Dick Parsons

    Yves Smith
    16 May 2012 | 1:59 am
    Yves here. Even though I pointed to this article yesterday, it is such a prototypical story of a type of success peculiar to Corporate America that I thought it warranted being featured. By Mark Ames, the author of Going Postal: Rage, Murder and Rebellion from Reagan’s Workplaces to Clinton’s Columbine. Cross posted from eXiled. This article was first published in The Daily Banter Last month, shareholders finally rebelled against Citigroup, the worst of the Too Big To Fail bailout disasters, by filing a lawsuit against outgoing chairman Dick Parsons and handful of executives for stuffing…

  • UNCTAD as the Battleground for Role of the State, Trade Policy

    Yves Smith
    15 May 2012 | 11:29 pm
    We’ve featured past Real News Network segments on the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. UNCTAD has increasingly become a forum for struggles between advanced economies and developing economies over what the rules of the road should be in trade. UNCTAD was early to call the benefits of financialization into question, and has also been taking issue with the comparatively small take countries in the “south” get from extended supply chain production. This, needless to say, is a vision that is a direct challenge to how multinational like to conduct their…

  • “What Scares Me Isn’t $2 Billion Loss JP Morgan Made, What Scares Me is the Record $19 Billion in Profits”

    Yves Smith
    15 May 2012 | 5:18 pm
    Even with all the focus on JP Morgan’s loss bomb in the past few days, some critical elements of the story have not gotten the scrutiny they deserve. By way of background, Amar Bhide, who is currently a professor at Tufts, has run a prop trading operation (admittedly some time ago) and has written extensively both on the financial services industry and entrepreneurship. Bhide takes issue with Dimon’s description of the funds that the Chief Investment Office (part of the bank’s treasury function) as “deposits” but rather as market funds. He also contends that no…
 
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    Alpha.Sources

  • The Denial on Housing in Spain

    CV
    4 May 2012 | 1:24 am
    I am sure many of my readers will have caught this Bloomberg piece earlier this week, but if you haven't it is a brillian piece of journalism by Bloomberg reporters Sharon Smyth, Neil Callanan and Dara Doyle. The story takes us to Spain and Ireland and the former's denial with regards its housing market.  Quote Bloomberg In the stages of death of a real estate boom, Spain is still in denial. In Ireland, they’re moving toward acceptance. The first auction of one of 2,000 unfinished housing estates takes place tomorrow at the Shelbourne Hotel in central Dublin, with sales…

  • The Curious Case of Liquidity Traps and Missing Collateral - Part 1

    CV
    16 Apr 2012 | 2:15 am
    The debate is on! Are we in a liquidity trap and if so what should we do? Why is the financial system depleted of collateral and what does this mean? Should policy makers and central banks be even more "irresponsible" [1] and conduct more monitised deficit spending? What does a lack of triple A rated/safe haven securities mean and is it real?  All these questions and more have recently gotten a fascinating treatment in the economics debate courtesy, mainly, of this piece by Credit Suisse.  FT Alphaville has been given the question extensive and brilliant coverage and now even the…

  • Time Unlikely to be a Healer for Portugal's Economy

    CV
    1 Apr 2012 | 10:34 pm
    Despite comparisons with Greece, Portugal is not in entirely the same situation, at least not yet it isn't. Crucially, Portugal is currently under no obligation to deal with international or national creditors to increasing government debt issuance courtesy of joint aid programme administered by the EU and the IMF.  The aid programme which aims to allow Portugal to return to normal market funding in mid 2013 stands at 78 billion euros of which 56 billion euros is provided by the EU and the remaining 26 billion euros by the IMF under the Extended Fund Facility. The recent mission…

  • China Moves Towards More Easing ...

    CV
    21 Mar 2012 | 5:01 pm
    Update: Here comes the confirmation with a poor flash PMI for March. From Markit;  “Weakening domestic demand continued to weigh ongrowth, as indicated by a slowdown in new orders whichcame in at a four-month low. External demand remainedin contraction territory, but the decline was at a slowerpace, implying that there are no improvements in thedemand outlook. More worryingly, employment recordeda new low since March 2009, suggesting slowingmanufacturing production was hindering enterprises'hiring desire. The soft-patch in manufacturing was in linewith the recent downside surprise…

  • Other Alpha Sources

    CV
    12 Mar 2012 | 9:32 am
    1. Variant Perception's blog is up and running and while I realise there has been little or no macroeconomic analysis here for a while, there is plenty of top notch analysis over at VP's blog. The three latest entries take a look at inflation in the UK, the divergence between Spain and Italy in sticking to the path of austerity and how money keeps trickling out of the eurozone periphery. If you think I have been running lean on analysis and commentary here, the VP blog is a good way to get a take on what me and my colleagues are looking at.  2. The debate on macroeconomics and…
 
 
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    The American Prospect

  • Marriage, Already Redefined

    Paul Waldman
    15 May 2012 | 3:50 pm
    As the debate over same-sex marriage has proceeded, one of the arguments you hear most often from those opposed to marriage equality is that there is this thing called "traditional marriage" that has been exactly the same for thousands of years, and if we "change the definition of marriage" to include gay people, well then things are really going to get crazy. There'll be no more rationale for keeping siblings from marrying, or keeping a guy from marrying his dog, or keeping a fish from marrying a toaster. What I don't often hear liberals say in response is: Yes, we are changing the…

  • A Mayor for the Occupy Set

    Nancy Scola
    15 May 2012 | 2:26 pm
    In the early 2000s, Jefferson Smith grew a reputation in progressive grassroots political circles as the hulking 6’ 3” strawberry-blond force of nature behind Oregon’s The Bus Project, a non-profit merry band of allies named for a 1978 touring coach bought on eBay, which busied itself , training scores of young people in the mechanics of democracy, signing up tens of thousands of new voters, and selling t-shirts emblazoned with the slogan “Vote, F*cker.” In 2008, Smith won election to the Oregon House of Representatives, where he memorably convinced colleagues on both sides of the…

  • George Clooney Cares About It

    Jaclyn Friedman
    15 May 2012 | 2:10 pm
    Yesterday I wrote about the new global campaign to end rape in conflict, and why it's a winnable goal. Today, it's time to bring home the reasons why we need to put in the required effort. We’ve all got our lives to live and our own pet issues to look after, and it’s easy for those of us in the U.S. to think of “rape in conflict” as a conceptual "Terrible Thing" that happens to those Other (Poor, Brown) People Far Away. But when we tie it in a tidy little “Over There Issue” bow, we totally erase the ways it’s a "Right Here Issue," both in that we’re complicit in it, and,…

  • Bush Endorses Romney

    Patrick Caldwell
    15 May 2012 | 1:44 pm
    Mitt Romney clearly coveted the endorsement of George H.W. Bush. He first met with Bush the Elder in December at the former president's Texas home in an appearance everyone assumed equaled a full endorsement. However Romney staged a second event in March for the official endorsement as another photo-op with Bush 41. Meanwhile the other Bush who once occupied the oval office was nowhere to be seen, never rolled out as a public endorser even though Romney clearly wrapped up the nomination weeks ago. George W. Bush finally entered the fray Tuesday to let the country know whom he plans to vote…

  • Hate It or Love It, the Stimulus Worked

    Jamelle Bouie
    15 May 2012 | 12:59 pm
    Mitt Romney is scheduled to give a speech this afternoon in Des Moines, Iowa, where he’ll focus “on the unprecedented growth of government, spending and debt under President Obama.” The American Spectator has excerpts from the address, and they are–for anyone who cares about truthfulness–rage inducing: President Obama started his days in office with the trillion-dollar stimulus package – the biggest, most careless one-time expenditure by the federal government in history. And remember this: the stimulus wasn’t just wasted – it was borrowed and wasted. We still owe the money,…
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    Brad DeLong

  • Mann-Ornstein: "It's Even Worse than It Looks"

    J. Bradford DeLong
    18 May 2012 | 2:00 pm
    Jack Citrin writes: UC Berkeley | Institute of Governmental Studies: Special Session of the Research Workshop on American Politics: Please join us Friday, May 18 at noon in the IGS library (109 Moses Hall), for a special session of the Research Workshop on American Politics with authors Thomas Mann and Norm Ornstein. As always lunch will be served. Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institution, have observed Washington politics for more than 40 years — and they're acclaimed for their carefully nonpartisan…

  • Our Corrupt New Old Regime Aristocracy

    J. Bradford DeLong
    15 May 2012 | 12:22 pm
    Gary Younge: A web of privilege supports this so-called meritocracy: Shortly after Mitt Romney's failed 2008 campaign for the Republican nomination his son Tagg set up a private equity fund with the campaign's top fundraiser. One of the first donors was his mum, Anne. Next came several of his dad's financial backers. Tagg had no experience in the world of finance, but after two years in the middle of a deep recession the company had netted $244m from just 64 investors. Tagg insists that neither his name nor the fact that his father had made it clear he would run for the…

  • Supply-Side Effects Are Small...

    J. Bradford DeLong
    15 May 2012 | 12:00 pm
    Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer: The Incentive Effects of Marginal Tax Rates: Evidence from the Interwar Era: This paper uses the interwar period in the United States as a laboratory for investigating the incentive effects of changes in marginal income tax rates. Marginal rates changed frequently and drastically in the 1920s and 1930s, and the changes varied greatly across income groups at the top of the income distribution. We examine the effect of these changes on taxable income using time-series/cross-section analysis of data on income and taxes by small slices of the income…

  • The Argument for Repealing Dodd-Frank Was...

    J. Bradford DeLong
    15 May 2012 | 11:36 am
    ... that Wall Street had learned its lesson that it had to have tight control over its derivatives books, and that it was possible for an investment bank to have tight control over its derivatives book: look at JPMC. Yes, let's look at JPMC.

  • The Real Problem with Electing a Former Head of Bain Capital as President Is...

    J. Bradford DeLong
    15 May 2012 | 11:31 am
    ....that his entire private-sector experience leads him to want to double down on the idea that getting more money to financiers and executives is job number one. For 30 years the ruling economic policies have been attempting to move more money to financiers and executives, and have done so with considerable success. Yet the faster economic growth that was supposed to follow these increases in income inequality are nowhere to be seen. Redoubling down on failed bets that we have already doubled down on would be a really not-smart thing to do.
 
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    cool global BIZ

  • Need More Media & Business Role Models Like "The Voice" Winner Jermaine Paul

    Edward Iwata
    9 May 2012 | 2:01 am
    Singer Jermaine Paul wins "The Voice" reality show competition. Winner announced at 6:00 minutes. Video courtesy of NBC. HEY, SOMETIMES THE good guys win. Jermaine Paul, a former backup singer for Alicia Keys, was chosen by America as winner of NBC's "The Voice "on Tuesday night. The man goes for broke, taking his last shot as a solo artist in the big time. He played the grace card, looking to the heavens after each song, but he did it humbly. It didn't hurt that Paul's pretty wife looked like a preacher's wife, and his cute kids looked like preacher's kids. I'm sure many of the show's 15…

  • Bellissimo! Christina Aguilera and Chris Mann Belt Out "The Prayer" on NBC's "The Voice"

    Edward Iwata
    8 May 2012 | 5:00 pm
    Christina Aguilera and Chris Mann perform "The Prayer" on NBC's "The Voice." Video courtesy of NBC, on YouTube. AMAZING PERFORMANCE OF "The Prayer" by Christina Aguilera and Chris Mann on NBC's "The Voice" Monday night. One striking note rarely heard on non-PBS, primetime TV: half of the moving lyrics (by Carole Bayer Sager and David Foster) were in Italian. I feared that the song might be sung all in English, given the way that networks water down everything for the masses. More, please. More genre-bending, culture-clashing, Gaga-busting, Glee-defying, Yo-Yo Ma-ing, cross-pollination. Even…

  • Chinese Visual Artist Bo Wang Looks at Cultural Clash of Tradition, Modernity

    Edward Iwata
    8 May 2012 | 2:01 pm
    INTERESTING PIECE IN the Asia Society blog on Bo Wang, a Chinese visual artist with a photography project ("Heteroscapes") on his hometown of Chongqing, China. The megacity illustrates the clash of traditional culture and Western-style modernity, writes Dan Washburn of the Asia Society. Wang has called the 2,000-year-old city of 31 million "a battlefield of transition," and the same clash likely is surfacing in every transcultural city in the world's emerging economies. The question of the 21st century will be the question of the culture line. (If you Google Bo Wang and Heteroscapes under an…

  • Go Grandma, Go Grandma: 56-Year-Old Tries Out for Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders

    Edward Iwata
    8 May 2012 | 11:00 am
    "Texas Granny a Dallas Cowboys Cheerleader?" Fitness instructor Sharon Simmons auditions for the world-famous cheerleading squad. News video courtesy of ABC News. OY, THE BIGGEST trending news on Yahoo! is not on world politics or global business, but on a 56-year-old grandma auditioning to be a Dallas Cowboys football cheerleader. Sharon Simmons, a fitness instructor in better shape than 99% of 20-year-olds, has auditioned for the world-famous cheerleading squad, and I'll bet she makes it. The global publicity and positive message for the Cowboys and the beleaguered National Football League…

  • Is Fox's Global TV Drama "Touch" A Transcultural Turning Point for U.S. Media?

    Edward Iwata
    15 Apr 2012 | 2:01 am
    WHY YES, THE U.S.-based global media may be at the cusp of a cultural turning point. Check out Fox's TV drama, "Touch," the first post-modern, cross-border, cross-cultural, cross-over-to-the-global-mainstream show on a major network. Launched last month in 100 markets worldwide, the visionary show is a new emerging model, a transnational and transmedia venture that could be the norm a decade from now. Short-term ratings trump all, so "Touch" -- years ahead of its time --may not last long. But the model will thrive in various incarnations. So much TV content is shallow and brain-dead. But…
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    Calculated Risk

  • Look Ahead: Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Mortgage Delinquencies, FOMC Minutes

    CalculatedRisk
    15 May 2012 | 8:16 pm
    Wednesday will be another busy day: • Housing starts for April will be released at 8:30 AM. Total housing starts were at 654,000 in March, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and single-family starts were at 462,000. This was a decline from the February rate, but most of the decline was related to the volatile multi-family sector. Based on housing permits, starts probably rebounded in April. The consensus is for total housing starts to increase to 690,000 (SAAR) in April. • At 9:15 AM, the Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for April. The…

  • Misc: NY Fed Manufacturing Survey, Remodeling Index

    CalculatedRisk
    15 May 2012 | 4:49 pm
    A couple of releases earlier this morning ... • From the NY Fed: May Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates manufacturing activity expanded at a moderate pace The May Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity expanded in New York State at a moderate pace. The general business conditions index rose eleven points to 17.1. The new orders index inched up to 8.3, and the shipments index shot up eighteen points to 24.1. ... Employment index readings remained relatively healthy, suggesting that employment levels and hours worked continued to expand. ... The index…

  • Lawler: Update Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities

    CalculatedRisk
    15 May 2012 | 2:12 pm
    CR Note: Last week I posted some distressed sales data for Sacramento. I'm following the Sacramento market to see the change in mix over time (short sales, foreclosure, conventional). Economist Tom Lawler sent me the updated table below for several other distressed areas. For all of these areas, the share of distressed sales is down from April 2011 - and for the areas that break out short sales, the share of short sales has increased and the share of foreclosure sales are down - and down significantly in some areas. In five of the seven cities that break out short sales, there are now more…

  • Key Measures of Inflation in April

    CalculatedRisk
    15 May 2012 | 10:52 am
    Earlier today the BLS reported: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in April on a seasonally adjusted basis ... The gasoline index fell 2.6 percent in April and accounted for most of the decline in energy, though the indexes for natural gas and fuel oil decreased as well. ... The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in April, the same increase as in March.The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.3%…

  • NAHB Builder Confidence increases in May, Highest since May 2007

    CalculatedRisk
    15 May 2012 | 9:05 am
    The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports the housing market index (HMI) increased 5 points in May to 29. Any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Rises Five Points in May Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes gained five points in May from a downwardly revised reading in the previous month to reach a level of 29 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. This is the index’s strongest reading since May of…
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    Winter (Economic and Market) Watch

  • California and “Solving Problems”

    Russ Winter
    15 May 2012 | 11:53 pm
    American masters of the universe and their toadies give self serving lip service to covering some events in Europe. They are forced to really. But when it comes to the last Ponzi standing,  the US, we see little of the kind.  For example recent estimates of California’s budget deficit soared to $16 billion, compared to $9.2 billion estimated in January. Tax revenues are falling far short.  Now the state proposes more tax increases and spending cuts. Even though California is a non-recourse state, bankruptcies are running hot.  The other state to pay close attention to…

  • Pan American Silver

    Russ Winter
    14 May 2012 | 8:41 am
    This post is an example of the actionables available on my subscription site. It is distinct from the Daily Rant pieces seen on Winter Watch. I was an active and successful mining shares investor in the early days of the precious metals bull market. I learned a lot about mining during that period.   I also learned that mining is very tough business subjected to extra risks and cost pressures.  To win in this sector output has to be increasing faster than costs (energy, labor, etc).  Additionally mining stocks have been ETFed to death, and trade too much as baskets not individual stocks.

  • The Mother of All Hooks

    Russ Winter
    9 May 2012 | 7:03 am
    Over the course of my thirty five year investing life I have noticed that markets often trade on hooks. A hook is when most participants develop a preconceived notion about “how things work”.  Then trading follows a pattern, drawing more in.  In the past, hooks were relatively harmless and when they came undone, they had little lasting overall economic impact. However, in today’s brave new world,  undone hooks will severely and I think critically damage the system.   At present the hook is a doozy. It is that central banks have given speculators a put that will somehow not only…

  • Chorus Against the Fed Bubble and Ministry of Truth Propaganda Gaining Momentum

    Russ Winter
    4 May 2012 | 9:46 am
    The chorus against the Fed Bubble continues apace as David Einhorn rips Fed’s jelly donuts policies.  Rick Santelli and Fed apologist Steve Leisman discuss the Einhorn’s statement. These exchanges have gone on for a few years,  except now Leisman really seems to be on the defensive in a crackpot blathering rancid stale bread kind of way.  Next up is Ron Paul  with a classic  essay, calling central bankers, “intellectually bankrupt”.  James Grant takes the opportunity to take another shot with strong langauge, ”The Federal Reserve is the giant squid of…

  • Fed Bubble is Now Common Knowledge: A John Galt Moment?

    Russ Winter
    3 May 2012 | 2:06 am
    Feldstein smiles at one of his star pupils   One of the “elite,” conomist Martin Feldstein was once considered one of the finalists for Greenspan’s spot, before a true sycophant, the Bernank, was appointed.  The rest is history but seems Feldstein is having an Atlas Shrugged, John Galt moment about what has transpired. “The stock market is, I think, responding to the Fed. I think the real danger is that this is a bubble in the stock market created by low long-term interest rates that the Fed has engineered….The danger is, like all bubbles, they burst at some…
 
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    Crooked Timber

  • The death of Flickr?

    Chris Bertram
    16 May 2012 | 2:35 am
    Gizmodo has a piece proclaiming the death of Flickr at the hands of the hateful and incompetent Yahoo. In many ways, Flickr has been the most important site on the internet to me (after CT of course) for the past five years. There isn’t another site that allows people who are serious about photography (including film) to display and talk about their work with others who feel the same way, that also includes a social media component. True, there are other sites that are good display vehicles (zenfolio or smugmug) but that’s like opening your shop down a dusty side-street: random…

  • Pretender – Too real is this feeling of make believe

    John Holbo
    16 May 2012 | 1:26 am
    Pretender, in the non-pejorative sense (and à propos of nothing in particular). Wikpedia’s definition will do: “A pretender is one who claims entitlement to an unavailable position of honour or rank. Most often it refers to a former monarch, or descendant thereof, whose throne is occupied or claimed by a rival, or has been abolished.” So, for example, Plato was pretender to the Philosopher King’s throne in a perfectly respectable sense. He wasn’t an imposter. It was his proper title. This seems to me a concept deserving of wider application and all-around…

  • Upgrade To Lion? Wait For Mountain Lion?

    John Holbo
    13 May 2012 | 9:32 pm
    A tech question for the CT commentariat. I’m a mac user, still using Snow Leopard but being pressured by Apple to upgrade to Lion – because I use MobileMe, which has become iCloud, which is no longer compatible with Snow Leopard after next month. (Except, apparently, they are relenting a bit about that. See below.) The question: should I upgrade to Lion? Normally I would just do it. In my case I’ve been slow because I had one legacy PPC app – Expression – which I’ve used for drawing for years. It will die when Rosetta dies, leaving me locked out of all that…

  • Hayek and the Welfare State

    Henry
    13 May 2012 | 8:22 am
    Two references worth reading in light of the last post. First, via Barkley Rosser, this firewalled article by Andrew Farrant and Edward McPhail on Caldwell’s recent edition of The Road to Serfdom. Caldwell seemingly considers Hayek to be arguing little more in The Road to Serfdom than that Soviet-style command planning is wholly incompatible with a democratic polity. Indeed, taking Caldwell’s statements at face value, he would—at least when wearing his editor of Hayek’s Collected Works hat— seemingly consider Hayek’s book to have scant relevance whatsoever…

  • Judt and Hayek

    Henry
    11 May 2012 | 9:06 am
    A few months ago, Tyler Cowen argued that Tony Judt had been unfair to Hayek in his final book. it doesn’t show Judt in such an overwhelmingly favorable light. He is cranky, unfair to his intellectual opponents, and he repeatedly misrepresents thinkers such as Hayek on some fairly simple points. … One does not have to agree with Hayek’s Road to Serfdom to find this an unfair characterization: Hayek is quite explicit on this count: if you begin with welfare policies of any sort — directing individuals, taxing for social ends, engineering the outcomes of market…
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    Dealbreaker

  • Write-Offs: 05.15.12

    Dealbreaker
    15 May 2012 | 6:50 pm
    $$$ Greece fails to form unity government [FT] $$$ Greek Depositors Withdrew $898 Million From Banks Monday [WSJ] $$$ “The plane carrying newly sworn-in French President François Hollande was hit by lightning Tuesday afternoon, forcing him to delay a trip to Berlin, where he is due to meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel.” [WSJ] $$$ Happy…Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.

  • Layoffs Watch ’12: Credit Suisse

    Bess Levin
    15 May 2012 | 6:18 pm
    The Swiss bank is not done with its firings.Credit Suisse, the second- biggest Swiss bank, told New York state regulators it will eliminate 126 jobs in Manhattan over the coming months. The dismissals affect offices at 1 Madison Ave. and 11 Madison Ave. and will extend through Aug. 6, the bank wrote in a Department of Labor filing. The firm decided last year to scale down its investment bank and said it would cut 3,500 jobs.[Bloomberg]Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: bummers, Credit Suisse, Layoffs

  • Facebook Attracting Children, Retirees, Not Advertisers

    Matt Levine
    15 May 2012 | 4:26 pm
    A wonderful thing about the Facebook IPO is that there is a proliferation of imaginary markets in which to … well, not trade it exactly, but say what you would be doing if you could trade it, which is almost as good. Here is the Wall Street Journal’s imaginary market, with a “Current Price Prediction”…Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: FaceBook, IPOs, Mark Zuckerberg

  • Jamie Dimon: JPMorgan’s Balance Sheet Still Fortress-Esque

    Bess Levin
    15 May 2012 | 3:23 pm
    “We maintain a fortress balance sheet to manage surprises and setbacks like this,” Dimon said today. “I’m confident when we’re done here we’ll be a stronger company.” [Bloomberg, earlier]Continue reading »Follow Dealbreaker on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook.Tags: Fortress balance sheets, FYIs, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan, surprises

  • Lloyd Blankfein Finally Gets To Be The Prettiest Girl At The Ball

    Bess Levin
    15 May 2012 | 3:16 pm
    Time was, Jamie Dimon was the most popular CEO on Wall Street and America’s “Least Hated Banker,” for reasons that included the fact that the man has soulful blue eyes, charisma out the ass, and was in charge of one of the banks that a) didn’t go out of business during the financial crisis, like Lehman and Bear and b) supposedly didn’t actually need the bailout money the government made it take (as JD has said previously), like Bank of America and Citigroup. The man, in the hearts of many and especially the adoring press, could do no wrong. Which is why it…
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    Econbrowser

  • The housing market and the case for higher inflation targets

    Menzie Chinn
    15 May 2012 | 3:00 pm
    From a VoxEU column today, by me and Joshua Aizenman: Might more inflation be good for the US and Europe? This column looks at the housing market in the US and argues that, with houses dropping in price, buyers are playing a waiting game. And as buyers keep delaying, the price drops further. Given the importance of property in many economies, the knock-on effects are severe. Yet one way to break this vicious cycle is with inflation. The eloquent advocacy for moderate inflation at times of peril goes back to Irving Fisher’s seminal paper on the debt deflation: “In summary, we find that:…

  • Gasoline Prices Implied by Futures

    Menzie Chinn
    15 May 2012 | 12:21 am
    Downward, and downwardly revised. Following up on this post several weeks ago, it seems that futures prices are confirming downward movements in gasoline prices. A simple bivariate regression using the lagged log futures price and log gasoline prices (all formulations) yields the following estimates: (1) pgast = 0.514 + 0.719 × fgast-1 + ut Adj-R2 = 0.97; SER = 0.034; DW = 1.90; smpl = 2005M11-2012M03; n = 77 Using this relationship, and the futures prices as of April 19, one can infer the path of future gasoline prices, and for May 13. I show the result in Figure 1: Figure 1: Actual…

  • JP Morgan and systemic risk

    James Hamilton
    13 May 2012 | 11:54 am
    For some time, financial observers have been discussing the large positions in bond-index derivatives amassed by a trader known as the London Whale, now revealed to be Bruno Iksil working for JP Morgan Chase. On Thursday we learned that JP Morgan has lost over $2 billion in the space of two weeks as a result of the trades. On Friday the stock price fell by 9.3%, wiping out $14.4 billion of the company's value. How do you lose so much money so quickly? The short answer is, leverage. Although details are not known, one likely scenario ([1], [2]) involves derivatives constructed from the riskier…

  • Dispatches (XXI): Governor Walker only 244,100 Short of 250,000 New Private Sector Jobs by 2015!

    Menzie Chinn
    12 May 2012 | 4:19 pm
    From Milwaukee Journal Sentinel All Politics Blog: Gov. Scott Walker recommitted Saturday to his pledge to create 250,000 private-sector jobs by 2015, a promise all the more difficult to achieve since he first made it because of anemic job growth during his tenure. In my April 30th post, which addressed Governor Walker's fears that Wisconsin net job creation would go negative if he lost the recall (despite the fact that reported net job creation was already negative), I included this graph: Figure 1: Wisconsin private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS March 2012 release (blue), from BLS…

  • Dispatches (XX): "Divide and Conquer"

    Menzie Chinn
    11 May 2012 | 5:00 pm
    From Milwaukee Sentinel Journal: A filmmaker released a video Thursday that shows Gov. Scott Walker saying he would use "divide and conquer" as a strategy against unions. In the video shot on Jan. 18, 2011 - shortly before Walker's controversial budget-repair bill was introduced and spawned mass protests - Hendricks asked the governor whether he could make Wisconsin a "completely red state, and work on these unions, and become a right-to-work" state. The Republican donor was referring to right-to-work laws, which prohibit private-sector unions from compelling workers to pay union dues if the…
 
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    EconLog: Library of Economics and Liberty

  • Durability vs. Stability: The Kim Dynasty and the Stationary Bandit Model

    Bryan Caplan
    16 May 2012 | 1:19 am
    (May 16, 2012 01:19 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Thanks for many good answers on the Kim dynasty vs. the stationary bandit model.  But as far as I can tell, no one drew the distinction I was looking for: durability versus stability.The Kim dynasty is clearly durable: it's ruled... (5 COMMENTS)

  • Are Unpaid Internships Immoral?

    David Henderson
    15 May 2012 | 10:40 pm
    (May 15, 2012 10:40 PM, by David Henderson) Derek Thompson at the Atlantic blog argues that unpaid internships are immoral. His case? The essence of it is that because the employer gets valuable services, the employer should pay for them. Of course, the employer does pay for them,... (8 COMMENTS)

  • Criticizing Your Own Side

    Arnold Kling
    15 May 2012 | 5:19 pm
    (May 15, 2012 05:19 PM, by Arnold Kling) Mark Thoma thinks that pundits on the left are more willing to criticize their own team than pundits on the right. My guess is that people on the right think it's the other way around. If so, then let me... (7 COMMENTS)

  • I Do Not Like Big Banks and Government

    Arnold Kling
    15 May 2012 | 7:29 am
    (May 15, 2012 07:29 AM, by Arnold Kling) In NRO, I write, When large banks have resources, politicians will be tempted to treat them as piñatas, taking whacks at them in order to extract money to distribute to constituents (see the recent "foreclosure settlement," or the pressure being... (20 COMMENTS)

  • The Kim Dynasty vs. the Stationary Bandit Model

    Bryan Caplan
    15 May 2012 | 12:10 am
    (May 15, 2012 12:10 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Question from the final exam for my graduate Public Choice class:The Kim family has ruled North Korea for three generations.  Doesn't the stationary bandit model imply that the country should be prospering?  If so, what's wrong with the stationary bandit... (40 COMMENTS)
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    Economist's View

  • Fed Watch: FOMC Minutes

    Mark Thoma
    16 May 2012 | 3:08 am
    Tim Duy: FOMC Minutes, by Tim Duy: The FOMC minutes are released tomorrow. Calculated Risk gives us the Goldman Sachs preview: We expect that the April FOMC minutes ... will include a discussion of possible easing options. ... The first set of options center around the Fed's balance sheet, and we think that the discussion might include the benefits of mortgage purchases, the potential for more “twisting,” and the pros and cons of sterilized asset purchases. I understand where this comes from - Operation Twist is coming to an end next month, and the two-day meeting in April seems like…

  • Economic Behavior: The Effects of Individual Genetic Variants are Tiny

    Mark Thoma
    16 May 2012 | 2:42 am
    There was recently some discussion of "genoeconomics": ...the idea that genes had an important role to play in decision-making was largely abandoned in the world of economics. But with the completion of the Human Genome Project in 2000, the first full sequence of a human being’s genetic code, people started wondering if perhaps it would be possible to push past broad heritability estimates ... and figure out what part of a person’s genome influenced what aspect of his behavior. However, Cornell economist Daniel Benjamin argues that the ability of genetic factors to explain…

  • Fed Watch: Greece is Running Out of Time

    Mark Thoma
    16 May 2012 | 2:33 am
    Tim Duy: Greece is Running Out of Time, by Tim Duy: I have repeatedly described myself as a Euroskeptic. The current combination of politics and economics looks likely to at worst doom the Euro to failure, at best to commit the Continent to a deep and long-lasting recession. Moreover, the pace of deterioration in Greece, combined with an economic structure that seems completely at odds with much of the rest of Europe, seems to make a Grexit all but impossible. That said, I am horrified at the ongoing willingness of European policymakers to still be playing chicken at this point. I assumed…

  • James Galbraith on the Euro Crisis

    Mark Thoma
    16 May 2012 | 2:24 am
    Here's the third part (German version) of an interview of Jamie Galbraith conducted a few weeks ago by Roger Strassburg and Jens Berger of the German blog NachDenkSeiten (first part, second part). This is on the Euro crisis: NDS: You've pretty much followed what's been happening in Europe in the past years, haven't you? Galbraith: I have been. NDS: You've seen what's been going on in Germany? I've sent you some stuff that may or may not have enhanced what you know. Galbraith: Thanks to you I have some familiarity. NDS: I think if you look at the euro crisis, the…

  • Links for 2012-05-16

    Mark Thoma
    16 May 2012 | 2:06 am
    End This Depression, But How? - Fred Block How Older Workers Weather Layoffs - NYTimes.com Thing Falls Apart - Paul Krugman The dogma of ‘credibility’ endangers stability - John Kay How Keynes would solve the eurozone crisis - FT.com Cleveland Fed: Inflation Expectations Fell in April - Uneasy Money Leaving the Euro May Be Better Than the Alternative - NYTimes.com Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales Are Flat - NYTimes.com Religion and Hierarchy at Göbekli Tepe - Acemoglu and Robinson Ignorance as Asset and Strategic Outcome - Tim Taylor Dooming the Euro - Paul Krugman
 
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    EconTalk

  • Owen on Parenting, Money, and the First National Bank of Dad

    Russell Roberts
    14 May 2012 | 5:30 am
    David Owen, author of The First National Bank of Dad, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about how to educate our children about money and finance. Owen explains how he created his own savings accounts for his kids that gave them an incentive to save and other ways to teach them about postponing gratification, investing, keeping money in perspective and other life lessons. The conversation closes with a discussion of the value of reading to your kids. Play Time: 01:03:46 How do I listen to a podcast? Download Size: 29.3 MB Right-click or Option-click, and select "Save Link/Target As MP3.

  • Schmidtz on Rawls, Nozick, and Justice

    Russell Roberts
    7 May 2012 | 5:30 am
    David Schmidtz of the University of Arizona talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the work of John Rawls and Robert Nozick. The conversation covers the basic ideas of Rawls and Nozick on inequality and justice and the appropriate role of the state in taxation and property rights. Play Time: 01:15:18 How do I listen to a podcast? Download Size: 34.6 MB Right-click or Option-click, and select "Save Link/Target As MP3. Readings and Links related to this podcast Podcast Readings HIDE READINGS About this week's guest: David Schmidtz's Home page "The Meanings of Life," by David Schmidtz.

  • Taylor on Rules, Discretion, and First Principles

    Russell Roberts
    30 Apr 2012 | 5:30 am
    John Taylor of Stanford University's Hoover Institution talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his new book, First Principles: Five Keys to Restoring America's Prosperity. Taylor argues that when economic policy adhere to the right basic principles such as keeping rules rather than using discretion, then the economy thrives. Ignoring these principles, Taylor argues, leads to bad economic outcomes such as recessions, inflation, or high unemployment. Taylor illustrates these ideas with a whirlwind tour of the last half century of American economic policy and history. The focus is on…

  • Cowen on Food

    Russell Roberts
    23 Apr 2012 | 5:30 am
    Tyler Cowen of George Mason U. and author of An Economist Gets Lunch, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about food, the economics of food, and his new book. In this wide-ranging conversation, Cowen explains why American food was once a wasteland, the environmental impacts of plastic and buying local, why to stay away from fancy restaurants in the central city, and why he spent a month shopping only at an Asian supermarket while living in Northern Virginia. Play Time: 01:01:48 How do I listen to a podcast? Download Size: 28.4 MB Right-click or Option-click, and select "Save Link/Target As…

  • Autor on Disability

    Russell Roberts
    16 Apr 2012 | 5:30 am
    David Autor of MIT talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program. SSDI has grown dramatically in recent years and now costs about $200 billion a year. Autor explains how the program works, why the growth has been so dramatic, and the consequences for the stability of the program in the future. This is an illuminated look at the interaction between politics and economics and reveals an activity of government that is relatively ignored today but will not be able to be ignored in the future. Play Time: 01:01:45 How do I listen to a podcast?
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    Environmental Economics

  • If they are more than willing and able, why don't they?

    Tim Haab
    15 May 2012 | 8:40 am
    The toxic blue-green algae that will spread across the western basin of Lake Erie this summer likely won’t be as dense as last year’s record bloom, experts say. However, the researchers who track Erie’s water woes say the algae could appear a month early this year, tainting water by June instead of July. ... Blue-green algae, or cyanobacteria, are common in most lakes but grow thick in sun-warmed water by feeding on phosphorus from manure, fertilizers and sewage that storms wash into streams and ultimately lakes. The algae can produce as many as four toxins that can sicken people and…

  • Picture of the day

    John Whitehead
    15 May 2012 | 7:40 am
    You can take the fisherman out of Iowa, but you can't take the Iowan out of the fisherman.

  • CC12 Outcome

    John Whitehead
    14 May 2012 | 10:12 am
    [See background posts, ones that I wish I had written on April 26 and May 7.*] From the inbox (today): Dear Copenhagen Consensus 2012 authors, Thank you very much for your participation in Copenhagen Consensus 2012. We greatly enjoyed working with all of the authors. It was a pleasure to meet many of you in Copenhagen last week. I am writing to provide you with the Copenhagen Consensus 2012 panel’s ‘outcome document’, which reflects the panel's consensus conclusions. You will note that they chose to not rank (but still highly recommend) some investments, so the list should be…

  • CC12 Biodiversity

    John Whitehead
    14 May 2012 | 9:47 am
    [I wish I had posted this on May 7* (see background post, one that I wish I had written on April 26).] As part of Copenhagen Consensus 2012, I wrote a "perspective" paper [pdf] on the biodiversity challenge paper* along with my graduate school office mate and biodiversity expert Paul Chambers (the paper would have been technical drivel without Paul).  Perspective papers: ... balance the challenge paper and indicate important issues that were not sufficiently dealt with in the challenge paper. The perspective papers are short papers, where published research that might have been…

  • Copenhagen Consensus 2012

    John Whitehead
    14 May 2012 | 9:35 am
    [I wish I had posted this on April 26*.] Bjorn Lomborg in Slate: The Copenhagen Consensus project, which I direct, provides a link between academic research and concrete economic analysis that can be used by decision-makers in the real world. Every four years, researchers and Nobel laureates work to identify the smartest responses to the biggest problems facing humanity. ... This May, more than 30 Nobel laureates and researchers will work together once again to identify the smartest ways to respond to global challenges, based on the latest information about the toughest problems facing our…
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    footnoted.com

  • Doughnut line keeps chugging at Krispy Kreme…

    Theo Francis
    15 May 2012 | 10:04 am
    There’s plenty of news on the pay, performance and corporate governance front out there today, what with JPMorgan Chase’s (JPM) annual meeting, the recent departure of Yahoo’s (YHOO) embattled chief executive, and more. Those are getting plenty of attention — and, honestly, we didn’t see a lot in recent JPMorgan and Yahoo filings that hasn’t been covered pretty thoroughly already. But big news days can let other interesting but less momentous details slip through the cracks, so we thought we’d check in with a footnoted frequent flier. Krispy Kreme…

  • Does Abercrombie’s emperor have any clothes?

    Sonya Hubbard
    14 May 2012 | 9:59 am
    It’s probably best not to think too hard about how things work at Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) without plenty of coffee. Even then, good luck making sense of it all. The most obvious question, of course, is why a company that sells clothing features models who wear little (if any) of its fashions. We wrote about that last year, footnoting on the company’s 67-slide PowerPoint presentation, in which 20% of the slides featured shirtless guys flexing bare muscles. The company seems committed to this strategy: Even now, the investor page on the company’s website features…

  • Putting lipstick on the pig at Chesapeake…

    Michelle Leder
    11 May 2012 | 9:51 am
    We were going to write about something else this morning, but then Chesapeake Energy (CHK), which as footnoted regulars know is something of a frequent flyer here, decided to file its proxy statement, so we quickly changed plans. While the company did file a preliminary proxy on April 20, there’s a lot that’s happened since then, including a series of blistering articles led by Reuters reporters Brian Grow and Anna Driver on a whole host of problems at the company that eventually led to the board deciding to separate the Chairman and CEO position as well as a public apology by CEO…

  • Island living at $34 an hour, from Axis Capital…

    Theo Francis
    10 May 2012 | 9:56 am
    There are all kinds of tax, regulatory and other reasons that insurance companies like to operate off the coast of the U.S. But it’s also no coincidence that some of the most popular spots for their headquarters are island get-aways like the Caymans and Bermuda. What’s more striking is the way these companies treat the headquarters-away-from-home like a hardship posting, showering extra perks and compensation on executives for their trouble. We were reminded of this with an amended 8-K that Axis Capital Holdings (AXS) filed yesterday, which also marked an about-face from the last…

  • Wendy’s pays big dough for move to Ohio…

    Sonya Hubbard
    9 May 2012 | 9:54 am
    In the ring of cities that orbits Columbus, Ohio, Dublin occupies the northwest corner, a short 25-minute drive from the state’s capital. Among its other claims to fame, it’s where The Wendy’s Co. (WEN) has its corporate headquarters. And there are close to a million reasons why it may soon become “Home Sweet Home” for another Wendy’s executive – which doesn’t seem like it ought to be a big deal – but apparently it is. As part of its plan to jettison the struggling Arby’s brand, Wendy’s decided to designate Dublin, Ohio as its…
 
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    Umair Haque

  • The Next Big Thing

    Umair Haque
    2 May 2012 | 2:36 pm
    What's the next big thing? Is it 3D printing, personal genomics, cleantech, hydrotech, self-driving cars, augmented reality, wearable computing, microcurrencies, big(ger) data, faster drones? And now for something completely different. What makes us human? In one word, preferably. It's a question, that the other day, out of sheer orneriness, I decided to ask my Twitter followers. The most common answers were: empathy, consciousness, compassion, love. So here's another question, given the results of my thoroughly unscientific anti-experiment. Will any of stuff in the first list necessarily,…

  • You Don't Need This "Recovery"

    Umair Haque
    24 Apr 2012 | 10:01 am
    What happens when one reaches the limits of a vocabulary? Consider, for a moment, the curious case of the "recovery." 93% of gains so far have flowed to the top 1%. Median incomes in recovery are lower than they were before recovery. The bulk of jobs are concentrated in low-wage industries. If this is a recovery, then, it's a little like zombifying a patient and pronouncing him "healed" might be said to be — a "recovery" not composed of what a reasonable person might call "health," but more like a creepy reanimation. What, then, does it mean for an economy to be "healthy"? Consider, for…

  • The Great Collision

    Umair Haque
    9 Apr 2012 | 9:57 am
    Here's a tiny question. What do you think most people really want? What do you think the average Jane — or even the less-than-average Joe — is capable of? One view is: most people don't want much, and are capable of even less. People — usually (pardon me for saying so) old, rich, white, privileged males — have been advancing this notion for centuries. The funny thing is, the world has made explosive jumps forward to increased prosperity. History has revealed that the less-than-average Joes and Janes of the world weren't just capable of working all day long hammering…

  • Overthrow Yourself

    Umair Haque
    29 Mar 2012 | 8:55 am
    Here's a tiny question. When you boil it down, what's the human purpose of enterprise? Of industry and ingenuity, effort and toil? When it comes to life, what's the point of work — and when it comes to work, what's the point of life? What's the point of "business", anyways? Is there one? You might answer, having spent years in combat on the war-torn front lines of commerce, countless hours ensnared in soul-sucking conference calls, endless days enticed by corner offices and promotions, something like: "Making megabucks, by the most efficient route possible. Hey, dude — got an…

  • The Economic Roots of Your Life Crisis

    Umair Haque
    16 Mar 2012 | 11:52 am
    I know: it's not manly, dignified, or barely mentionable in polite conversation. But here's the thing. Lately, I've been in the middle of a full-blown omg what-the-hell-where-is-it-all-going-and-what's-the-point-anyways life crisis. Dragged kicking and screaming to a party where I couldn't handle the small talk, after a while I finally just blurted out: "I'M HAVING A LIFE CRISIS AND I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT!!!!111" After staring at me pitifully for a moment or two, my friends admitted one by one: "So am I." Which left me a little puzzled — because, of course, I thought I was the…
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    Free exchange

  • Zap

    R.A. | WASHINGTON
    15 May 2012 | 11:12 am
    POSTED without comment:[inline|iid=16903]

  • The no-growth zone

    R.A. | WASHINGTON
    15 May 2012 | 11:06 am
    IT IS another grim day for European markets. Break-up worries continue to grow. You can read Charlemagne on yesterday's disappointing euro-group meeting. The news has gotten worse today, as Greece's political parties seem to have failed to form a government, meaning that new elections will be held in June. Meanwhile, the tragedy of the performance of the real euro-zone economy was made clear in new GDP figures released today. The euro area managed no growth in the first quarter of 2012. That actually represented a slight improvement from a tumultuous fourth quarter in which the economy…

  • Boom ahead?

    R.A. | WASHINGTON
    15 May 2012 | 10:04 am
    IT'S been a long time coming, but America's housing market finally seems to be normalising. Construction has been so low since the beginning of the bust that many markets are experiencing increasingly tight conditions. That's supporting rent increases, and that, in turn, is putting a floor under home values and leading to an uptick in construction. The question is: how large an uptick?Builder confidence has risen sharply in recent months and, as Calculated Risk points out, that typically presages a surge in construction:[inline|iid=16899]A construction-oriented phase of recovery would be most…

  • Link exchange

    R.A. | WASHINGTON
    14 May 2012 | 2:35 pm
    TODAY'S recommended economics writing:• The great moderation, forecast uncertainty, and the great recession (Liberty Street)• Some thoughts on institutional capacity in South-Eastern Europe (Fistful of Euros)• Global value chains, trade, jobs, and environment (Vox)• Labor force nonparticipants: So what are they doing? (macroblog)

  • Tightening (try overshooting for once, cont.)

    R.A. | WASHINGTON
    14 May 2012 | 10:08 am
    SELFISHLY, my main worry about the ongoing euro-zone crisis is that it might derail America's kinda-sorta strengthening recovery. Trade, once again, is not the main concern. Previously, financial contagion seemed a big problem, but the European Central Bank has helped insulate America against that, for now at least.Instead, the problem appears to be that euro crisis is generating a passive tightening of monetary policy. This shows up most clearly in the form of falling inflation expectations and a rising dollar. We can also read something about growth expectations in the yields on long-term…
 
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    interfluidity

  • Great Britain as a case study: which sticky price?

    Steve Randy Waldman
    28 Apr 2012 | 4:33 am
    Richard Williamson offers a report from the UK. Combining bits via Tyler Cowen and Williamson’s own excellent blog: I think there has been a lot missing from the discussion of the UK in the blogosphere. We are a bit of a puzzle on a purely AD-based explanation of the recession. We didn’t have deflation (on annual basis at least), and even stripping out the effect of the VAT rise in 2011 should still show persistent inflation over 3% since 2010 http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/inflation-cpi UK inflation expectations seem to be significantly higher here (if falling away a…

  • Two quick responses on choosing depression

    Steve Randy Waldman
    22 Apr 2012 | 12:16 am
    Scott Sumner and Marcus Nunes suggest that our policy failures are in some sense just an “oops!”, that they result from a mix of mistaken theory, institutional frictions, personal quirks, and political forces rather than being, as I argue, a choice. I’d be more sympathetic if these “mistakes” were unique to the United States. Broadly similar choices have been made in Europe, and Japan. You can tell idiosyncratic stories of political and institutional failure for each of these countries individually. But ex ante, you’d not have expected similar policy…

  • Depression is a choice

    Steve Randy Waldman
    17 Apr 2012 | 1:57 am
    I enjoyed Matt Yglesias’ suggestion that depressions are merely a technical problem that will go away once the obsolescence of cash eliminates the zero lower bound on interest rates, and Ryan Avent’s rejoinder. Although I’ve toyed with Yglesias’ view myself, I think that Avent has the better of the argument when he characterizes our current policy impotence as reflecting behavioral rather than technical constraints. We don’t lack for technical means to counter people’s self-defeating impulse to hoard cash and safe financial assets. On the contrary, we have…

  • A note on model risk, policy design, and political alliances

    Steve Randy Waldman
    12 Apr 2012 | 1:23 am
    My previous post advocating a collaborative detente between post-Keynesians, market monetarists, and mainstream saltwater economists, has drawn smart and often skeptical comments. Some critics suggest I understate the dissimilarities between the three schools, and argue that any sort of fusion would amount to a muddled middle, centrism only for its own sake. (I like this: “The centrist position on building a bridge would end up with a bridge halfway across the river.”) If I were advocating some kind of Grand Unified Theory, I might concede the point. But I’m not advocating a…

  • Because the stakes are so small?

    Steve Randy Waldman
    8 Apr 2012 | 6:13 pm
    People I admire were calling each other nasty names last week, so I cowered in the corner, put my hands to my ears, and hummed very loudly. I’m talking about the debate over money and banking that involved Steve Keen (1, 2, 3, 4, 5), Paul Krugman (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7), Nick Rowe (1, 2, 3), Scott Fullwiler, and Randy Wray among others. Here are some summaries by Edward Harrison, John Carney, and Unlearning Economics. Anyway, although there were some good moments, this debate just made me unhappy. The mechanics of banking are straightforward and uncontroversial, although they are widely…
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    Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up

  • So Inflating Your C.V. Is Worse Than Inflating Your Earnings…

    Jeff Matthews
    14 May 2012 | 1:53 pm
     Poor Scott Thompson.  The world’s (currently) most famous accused-resume-inflator is gone from the C-Suite at Yahoo.  Oh, and he has thyroid cancer to boot. Meanwhile, Wall Street’s Finest are gearing up for next week’s earnings from Hewlett-Packard, and based on our perusals of various so-called research reports—not to mention a puff-piece on the company in this week’s Barron’s—all signs point to an “in-line” quarter from HP, although one analyst is suggesting “yet another restructuring plan/charge of about $1billion.” [Editor's Note: This…

  • Berkshire 2012: The Times They Are A-Changing and Other Observations

    Jeff Matthews
    10 May 2012 | 10:42 am
    Editor’s Note— This year we’re utilizing a shorter, snappier way to summarize the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting as a way to spare readers the redundancies in Buffett and Munger’s question-and-answer session. After all, the commentary overlap with past meetings is probably 75% nowadays—we’ve even developed a sort of Berkshire shorthand for our note-taking, writing simply “Graham story” when Buffett launches into his dissertation on the importance of certain chapters in Ben Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor,” for example; “MBA joke” whenever Buffett or…

  • Doing the Right Thing: Upside? Zero. Downside? Financial Ruin…

    Jeff Matthews
    16 Apr 2012 | 6:42 am
      In a typically breezy, highly readable and highly informative blog post (Bronte Capital: Daddy you are more evil than I thought), hedge fund manager (and friend, for the record) John Hempton writes an at once amusing and illuminating description of what he does and why he does it, to the admiration/horror of his son. (John leaves out the ‘how’ he does it, but I can tell you it is the ‘how’ that makes John so good). However, by summing up his work in the manner he does such that it generates his son’s amusingly alarmed reaction (quoted in the title of the piece),…

  • David Schwartz: One of The Good Guys

    Jeff Matthews
    3 Apr 2012 | 4:19 pm
     David Schwartz, who passed away last weekend, was one of the good guys. The company he and his wife, Alice, founded in their garage many years ago is a clinical diagnostics and life science products maker called Bio-Rad Labs, which readers may recall from a few years back when its “mad cow” disease test was suddenly in demand after a limited but frightening outbreak of that brain-wasting disease in North America. Mad cow test aside, Bio-Rad happens to be one of those off-the-radar public companies that does nothing the way Wall Street’s Finest like to see things done…

  • Augusta National Golf Club: What Would Warren Do?

    Jeff Matthews
    2 Apr 2012 | 7:40 am
    Golf’s Masters Facing Male-Only Dilemma With IBM CEO RomettyBy Beth Jinks and Michael Buteau    March 28 (Bloomberg) -- Will International Business Machines Corp.’s Ginni Rometty be able to wear a green jacket at the Masters Tournament?    As Augusta National Golf Club prepares to host the competition next week, it faces a quandary: The club hasn’t admitted a woman as a member since its founding eight decades ago, yet it has historically invited the chief executive officer of IBM, one of three Masters sponsors. Since the company named Rometty to the post this year,…
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    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

  • Note to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at The Telegraph: You Have Excellent Insight as to What is Happening and Why, But Please Get a Grip on Reality as to Solutions

    16 May 2012 | 2:37 am
    Once again, I sadly report that Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at The Telegraph hits the nail on the head as to what is happening, yet cannot hit the broadside of a barn with a shotgun from 15 feet in regards to the solution. It really pains me to see excellent analysis go straight into the toilet with hopeless proposals to problems at hand. Please consider Appetiser cost of Greek exit is €155bn for Germany, France: trillions for meat course by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. Eric Dor's team at the IESEG School of Management in Lille has put together a table on the direct costs to Germany and France if…

  • Spain Potpourri: Official Denials From Finance Minister; More Nationalizations Coming Up; Banks Use ECB Money to Refinance Large Enterprises in Dire Shape, New Credit To Households Down 80%

    15 May 2012 | 7:04 pm
    Official Denials From Finance Minister Finance Minister Says "Nothing to Hide" Asks for ECB Audit of Banks, Denies Need for Rescue Fund The Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, said Tuesday it has asked the European Central Bank (ECB) to assist in the independent audit of the Spanish banks' balance sheets and is committed to full throttle work as has asked the Eurogroup, in order to have results within two months. In addition Guindos assured that no minister of economy of the eurozone has said that Spain should come to the rescue fund EU to recapitalize their banks. "There is nothing to hide,…

  • Screeching Halt in China; Weak Trade Data; Imports and Exports Fall Way Short of Expectations; Credit Crunch Underway; Feeble Forecasts From Pimco, Others

    15 May 2012 | 5:48 pm
    China bulls are in for a multi-year shock because rebalancing from an economy overly dependent on exports is going to be far more painful, and last much longer than most think. Data is coming in much weaker than expected, but I propose this is only the very beginning. The New York Times reports Data Signal Economic Trouble in China China announced Thursday that growth in imports had unexpectedly come to a screeching halt in April — rising just 0.3 percent from the same period a year earlier, compared with expectations for an 11 percent increase. Businesses across the country appeared to…

  • Mish Interview on the "Daily Bell": Rise of Money Metals, Why Credit Matters

    15 May 2012 | 11:16 am
    On Sunday, May 06, 2012 I gave an Exclusive Interview to the "Daily Bell" with Anthony Wile that I would like to share with my readers. The Daily Bell is pleased to present this exclusive interview with Mish Shedlock. Introduction: Mike "Mish" Shedlock blogs at Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis, for which he has won awards from the New York Times, Time Magazine, Bloomberg, CNBC and Strategist News. Mish is a contributing "professor" blogger at the economic and financial education site Minyanville and offers podcasts every Thursday on HoweStreet. He's a registered investment…

  • ALS Update; I Still Need Your Help; Money Contributions From 22 Countries!

    15 May 2012 | 12:28 am
    In case you missed it, back on April 2, 2012 I reported My Wife Joanne Has ALS, Lou Gehrig's Disease. In that post, I announced I was running a raffle for the benefit of the Les Turner ALS Foundation. Please read the post if you have not yet seen it. Many people have asked for an update, so here goes. Raffle ticket purchases and contributions have come in from 22 countries around the world. Countries Making Donations Australia Belgium  Canada  Chile China Estonia  France  Germany  Ireland  Japan  Luxembourg  Mexico Netherlands  New Zealand …
 
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    Oddhead Blog

  • Oddhead Blog hacked… for the third time

    David Pennock
    6 May 2012 | 9:27 am
    My blog has been hacked yet again. For those keeping track, that’s infection number three. This latest exploit is very similar to the previous one. To humans arriving via browser (e.g., me), the site appears perfectly normal and healthy. Even upon clicking ‘view source’, nothing untoward is revealed. The <title> of my blog is, as always, Oddhead Blog. However, when Google’s or Bing’s crawlers arrive to index my corner of the web, they see a different <title> altogether — Buy Cheap Cialis Online  — and immediately roll their eyes.

  • Microsoft Research New York City, First Days

    David Pennock
    5 May 2012 | 5:19 pm
    Now that I’ve said my goodbyes, I’m thrilled to announce that I’ve joined Microsoft Research, an organization with going-on twenty-one years of commitment to basic and applied research, employing 850 Ph.D. scientists around the globe including Turing Award winners, Fields Medalists, and many long-time colleagues that I hugely respect. If that were all, I would be over-the-top happy right now. But that’s not all. Together with fourteen other founding members (seven of whom I can name: Duncan Watts, John Langford, David Rothschild, Sharad Goel, Dan Goldstein, Jake…

  • Turning in my Yahoo! badge

    David Pennock
    5 May 2012 | 5:06 pm
    On Thursday April 26, 2012, I resigned from Yahoo! after nearly 10 without actively changing jobs. Here is the full text of the goodbye letter(s) I sent. It’s the kind of long-winded last salvo that few people actually read, and now I’m foisting it upon you, dear reader, but I can’t help myself. Writing it brought back many wonderful memories and a tinge of sadness at the end of a truly amazing work environment for me, but I found the exercise rewarding. I really appreciate the many kind words and well wishes: some were poignant and immensely gratifying. The feeling is…

  • Congratulations Pete Wurman and Kiva Systems, a bellwether of the automated economy

    David Pennock
    22 Mar 2012 | 1:55 pm
    Congratulations to my academic sibling, friend, and Detroit Red Wings fan Pete Wurman, whose company Kiva Systems just became Amazon’s second largest acquisition ever. In short, Kiva Systems designs, builds, and operates intelligent autonomous robots to pick and stow products in giant distribution centers for companies like Toys R Us, Walgreens, and Zappos. (The latter is an Amazon subsidiary.) The best way to understand Kiva Systems is to watch their robots in action: an amazing sight to see. Here is a clip from IEEE Spectrum: In 2003, I remember sitting in the back seat of a car…

  • Prediction Market PowWow at Yahoo! Research New York, August 2011

    David Pennock
    9 Mar 2012 | 2:26 pm
    I am incredibly lucky. Last August, I spent three days straight thinking almost exclusively about one topic: prediction markets, mostly algorithms. Even better, I was in great company: eleven incredible visitors from across the country took time out of their busy schedules to join me at Yahoo! Research NYC in an impromptu “prediction market powwow”: Yiling Chen, Sanmay Das, Lance Fortnow, Nicolas Lambert, Abe Othman, Mike Ruberry, Rahul Sami, Florian Teschner, Jenn Wortman Vaughn, Christof Weinhardt, and Lirong Xia. (Plus fellow Yahoos Miro Dudik, Sebastien Lahaie, and David…
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    A Dash of Insight

  • The Investor Edge from Europe

    oldprof
    15 May 2012 | 9:55 pm
    Here is a surprise for you.  European leaders did better than your favorite pundit! They will also do better in the future. For the last two weeks the dollar has moved higher versus the Euro and stocks have moved lower -- almost an unbroken string. The European story fit nicely with trader pre-conceptions about selling in May, following the pattern of the last two (count 'em!) years, and the lack of more QE. Setting this up  was a revival of the disaster scenario -- a 2008-style Lehman like event where banks would topple and the financial system would crumble.  Everyone's favorite…

  • Weighing the Week Ahead: Any Help from Housing?

    oldprof
    12 May 2012 | 10:40 pm
    Economic growth continues at weak, below trend levels just at the time the stimulus programs are wearing off.  For some this implies that the next recession is just around the corner. From another perspective the current economic growth has occurred in spite of a major drag from reductions in government programs (see Gene Epstein in this week's Barron's) and contraction in housing.  If these two factors just got back to neutral, it would reduce the drag by two percent or so, revealing the true underlying strength of the private economy Is there any hope from the housing sector?  Even some…

  • When Something Goes Wrong: The Case of JP Morgan Chase

    oldprof
    10 May 2012 | 8:34 pm
    Managing your investments would be easy if you just bought stocks and watched them move higher. In your dreams! In the real world, even the best managers must deal with adversity.  Our choices, no matter how carefully chosen, do not perform as expected.  Something goes wrong. Dealing with adversity is crucial to investment success.  Tonight we have an informative case study in JP Morgan Chase (JPM), a company that I have cited favorably several times and include in my flagship investment program.  My most recent favorable mention was just this week in my discussion of Europe. While it is…

  • Why Not to Panic about Europe

    oldprof
    8 May 2012 | 10:47 pm
    I feel no panic about Europe. This is a typical test.  Every long-term investor considers the question of risk tolerance and understands that markets will fluctuate for mysterious reasons.  So far, so good. Then, when the event actually happens, it is accompanied by a cacophony of fear mongers -- all claiming that this is "the big one." How can the average person tell the difference? Knowing What to Ask The first step in critical thinking about a problem is asking the right questions.  How about these? Is there systemic risk?  By this I am asking whether we have another "Lehman event"…

  • Weighing the Week Ahead: Here Come the Candidates!

    oldprof
    5 May 2012 | 11:24 pm
    In a light week for economic data, we can expect more attention to elections both in Europe and the US. Political activity provides both an opportunity and a trap for most investors.  It is so easy to use our own electoral preferences in forming conclusions about economic and investment prospects. Just as Democrats did when President Bush was in office, Republicans now want to make the economy seem as bad as possible -- and hopeless unless Obama is defeated.  This means super-spinning of every story.  This week's employment report is a good example.  Read Derek Thompson's fine article,…
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    SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page

  • Greece Is Running Out Of Time

    16 May 2012 | 5:40 am
    By Tim Duy: I have repeatedly described myself as a Euroskeptic. The current combination of politics and economics looks likely to, at worst, doom the euro to failure, at best to commit the Continent to a deep and long-lasting recession. Moreover, the pace of deterioration in Greece, combined with an economic structure that seems completely at odds with much of the rest of Europe, seems to make a 'Grexit' all but impossible.That said, I am horrified at the ongoing willingness of European policymakers to still be playing chicken at this point. I assumed that my skepticism would ultimately be…

  • Cramer's Mad Money - The Facebook No Buy Zone (5/15/12)

    16 May 2012 | 5:35 am
    By SA Editor Miriam Metzinger: Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Tuesday May 15. No Buy Zone For Facebook (FB), Zillow (Z), Jive (JIVE), Linkedin (LNKD) It has been announced that the Facebook IPO will be priced 14% higher than anticipated, to over $38. A huge pop on Friday is a foregone conclusion, since recent social media IPOs jumped an average of 42% the first day. While Cramer urges investors to get in on the FB deal and buy as many shares as possible, he calls Friday a "No Buy Zone" for Facebook. Even if the stock falls dramatically from its…

  • BP: Beyond Petroleum Or Bargain Price?

    16 May 2012 | 5:25 am
    By Rookie IRA Investor: COmpany)Complete Story »

  • More On CPI (Not To Be Confused With Moron CPI)

    16 May 2012 | 5:08 am
    By The Inflation Trader: I posted Tuesday some thoughts that I tweeted right after the CPI figures were released Tuesday morning, and added a few ancillary thoughts as well. I figured that may be all that I would write, since CPI is clearly the most important release of the day and because I am hard at work on our Quarterly Inflation Outlook piece.But then I saw a number of headlines such as this: "Retail Sales Edge Up, Inflation Flat as Energy Prices Fall" "Tame Inflation, Strong Factory Data Lift Futures" …and I realized I had to write Tuesday.It isn't true that core CPI was "as-expected"…

  • 7 Undervalued, Highly Shorted Stocks With Strong Profitability

    16 May 2012 | 4:55 am
    By Kapitall:Do you consider yourself a contrarian investor, always searching for underestimated stocks? For ideas on how to start your own contrarian search, we ran a screen. We began by screening for stocks with bearish sentiment, with float shorts above 10%. We also screened for stocks that appear undervalued relative to earnings growth, with PEG below 1. Then we screened for those with strong profitability compared to industry peers, with higher gross, operating, and pretax margins than their industry averages by at least 5% on each margin. This indicates that these companies are taking a…
 
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Question 5 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys

    Andrew
    15 May 2012 | 3:00 pm
    5. Which of the following better describes changes in public opinion on most issues? (Choose only one.) (a) Dynamic stability: On any given issue, average opinion remains stable but liberals and conservatives move back and forth in opposite directions (the “accordion model”) (b) Uniform swing: Average opinion on an issue can move but the liberals and conservatives don’t move much relative to each other (the disribution of opinions is a “solid block of wood”) (c) Compensating tradeoffs: When considering multiple survey questions on the same general topic, average opinion can move…

  • A statistical research project: Weeding out the fraudulent citations

    Andrew
    15 May 2012 | 8:26 am
    John Mashey points me to a blog post by Phil Davis on “the emergence of a citation cartel.” Davis tells the story: Cell Transplantation is a medical journal published by the Cognizant Communication Corporation of Putnam Valley, New York. In recent years, its impact factor has been growing rapidly. In 2006, it was 3.482 [I think he means "3.5"---ed.]. In 2010, it had almost doubled to 6.204. When you look at which journals cite Cell Transplantation, two journals stand out noticeably: the Medical Science Monitor, and The Scientific World Journal. According to the JCR, neither of…

  • Question 4 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys

    Andrew
    14 May 2012 | 4:00 pm
    4. Researchers have found that survey respondents overreport church attendance. Thus, naive estimates from surveys overstate the percentage of Americans who attend church regularly. Does this have a large impact on estimates of time trends in religious attendance? Solution to question 3 From yesterday: 3. We discussed in class the best currently available method for estimating the proportion of military servicemembers who are gay. What is that method? (Recall the problems with the direct approach: there is no simple way to survey servicemembers at random, nor is it likely that they would…

  • I hate to get all Gerd Gigerenzer on you here, but . . .

    Andrew
    14 May 2012 | 8:22 am
    Jonathan Cantor points me to an opinion piece by psychologist Reid Hastie, “Our Gift for Good Stories Blinds Us to the Truth.” I have mixed feelings about Hastie’s article. On one hand I do think his point is important. It’s not new to me, but presumably it’s new to many readers of bloomberg.com. I like Hastie’s book (with Robyn Dawes), Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, and I’m predisposed to like anything new that he writes. On the other hand, there’s something about Hastie’s article that bothered me. It seemed a bit smug, as if he…

  • Question 3 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys

    Andrew
    13 May 2012 | 3:00 pm
    3. We discussed in class the best currently available method for estimating the proportion of military servicemembers who are gay. What is that method? (Recall the problems with the direct approach: there is no simple way to survey servicemembers at random, nor is it likely that they would answer such a question honestly.) Solution to question 2 From yesterday: 2. Which of the following are useful goals in a pilot study? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) You can search for statistical significance, then from that decide what to look for in a confirmatory analysis of your full dataset. (b) You…
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    Streetsblog New York City

  • NYC: EDC Wants 500 Parking Spots at Long-Awaited Lower East Side Development

    Noah Kazis
    15 May 2012 | 2:34 pm
    A rendering of the kind of development possible under the Economic Development Corporation's plans for the Seward Park Urban Renewal Area. EDC calls for 500 parking spaces at the site: more than the zoning code allows. The Seward Park Urban Renewal Area, or SPURA, is the largest undeveloped, city-owned area south of 96th Street. Located along the south side of Delancey Street at the foot of the Williamsburg Bridge, SPURA currently consists of five empty lots, the leftovers of a 1967 slum clearance project. Though mid-century towers-in-a-park style housing was built elsewhere on the site,…

  • NYC: Tonight: Weigh in on Bike-Share Stations for Downtown Brooklyn

    Brad Aaron
    15 May 2012 | 1:26 pm
    There’s an important meeting of the Brooklyn Community Board 2 transportation committee coming up tonight, where the DOT bike-share team will present proposed locations for Citi Bike stations. The bike-share siting process has been praised by several community boards, and like all the other CBs within the bike-share service area, Brooklyn CB 2 hosted a public workshop where participants expressed their preferences for station locations. But the Brooklyn Daily Eagle makes it seem as if the entire program was sprung on the unwitting district overnight. Under the headline “Heights…

  • NYC: City Council Can’t Force NYPD to Adhere to State Law on Crash Investigations

    Brad Aaron
    15 May 2012 | 11:50 am
    The City Council has concluded it cannot require NYPD to fully investigate traffic crashes, despite indications that current department protocols may violate state law. Investigations into the deaths of Stefanos Tsigrimanis and Clara Heyworth were compromised by the NYPD "likely to die" policy. In March, Council Member Steve Levin sent a letter to NYPD Commissioner Ray Kelly questioning the practice of assigning the Accident Investigation Squad only in instances where someone is killed or is believed likely to die. Currently, crashes that result in injuries that are not considered…

  • NYC: Mapping How NYC Bike-Share Meshes With Jobs and Transit

    Noah Kazis
    15 May 2012 | 9:04 am
    A map of the coming bike-share system with circles scaled to represent the size of stations. Image: Steven Romalewski Hungry for more bike-share maps? Yeah, us too. Thanks to Steven Romalewski, the director of the CUNY Graduate Center’s Mapping Service, we’ve got our fix. In a post on his Spatiality blog, Romalewski uses GIS to analyze the 413 bike-share stations posted on DOT’s website so far. One map, shown above, shows each station with the size of the station displayed graphically. At a glance, you can see the number of docks per station decrease as you move away from…

  • NYC: Today’s Headlines

    Brad Aaron
    15 May 2012 | 7:56 am
    ESDC Seeks to Appeal Ruling That It Illegally Skipped Atlantic Yards Environmental Review (Crain’s) Pedro Espada Found Guilty of Stealing Hundreds of Thousands From Health Non-Profit (NYT) Cuomo Man Pat Foye Preaches Mega-Project Accountability, Presumably Keeps Straight Face (Capital) Sunnyside Pedestrian Slain by Alleged DWI Livery Driver Identified as Gabriel Hernandez (Post) NJ Transpo Commissioner Suggests Routing NJ Transit Buses to the East Side (Capital) New Jersey Researchers Find the Poor More Likely to Be Hit by Drivers (WNYC) Dispatchers Added to Improve Coordination Between…
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    The Becker-Posner Blog

  • Homosexual Marriage—Posner

    Richard Posner
    13 May 2012 | 4:33 pm
    President Obama’s declaration of support for homosexual marriage has focused public attention on the question whether such marriage should be permitted, although so far the response has been rather tepid. It no longer seems a hot issue, though it may heat up in the furnace of a presidential election campaign.  In 1967 the Supreme Court, in a case called Loving v. Virginia, held that the prohibition found in the laws of a number of southern states against interracial marriage was unconstitutional. The decision was the culmination of a long series of judicial, legislative, regulatory, and…

  • On Homosexual Marriage-Becker

    Gary Becker
    13 May 2012 | 4:13 pm
    Posner shows how attitudes toward homosexuals have changed dramatically during the past half century. This change did not take place in a vacuum because most sexual and family attitudes underwent revolutionary changes during the same time period. Divorced women were outcasts at that earlier time, whereas now divorced women as well as men are considered part of the normal marital landscape. To be an unmarried mother was then considered shameful, whereas although unmarried motherhood is not yet accepted as normal, unmarried mothers are not ostracized. The pill and other improved contraceptives…

  • Why has the Recovery in Employment in the US been so Slow? Becker

    Gary Becker
    6 May 2012 | 8:25 pm
    The jobs report from The Bureau of Labor Statistics this past Friday is not good reading. The economy added about 115,000 workers, the slowest increase in 6 months. To make matters worse, over 40% of the unemployed have remained out of work for at least six months. The unemployment rate did drop a notch, but this was because many discouraged workers left the labor force. In fact, the recovery is the slowest in the post World War II period. No single factor explains this slowness, but a combination of several explains most of the slow recovery. Recoveries after major financial crises are…

  • Why Unemployment Remains So High—Posner

    Richard Posner
    6 May 2012 | 5:20 pm
    In 2007 and 2008, the U.S. unemployment rate was only 4.6 percent, though it started to rise after the financial crisis hit in September 2008, reaching 10.1 percent in October 2009. Since then it has fallen to 8.1 percent. The unemployment figure is not terribly illuminating, as it defines the unemployed as persons who are looking for a job, thus excluding those who have stopped looking because they don’t think they’ll find one; in the latest quarter, the unemployment rate fell (from 8.2 percent in the previous quarter) only because of the large number of persons who dropped out of the…

  • Are the Incentives of College Administrators Well Aligned with Social Welfare? Posner

    Richard Posner
    29 Apr 2012 | 2:42 pm
    A promising field of economics called organization economics studies the organization of activity within complex entities such as for-profit corporations, government agencies, and not-for-profit private corporations. Colleges and universities (which I’ll discuss interchangeably, calling both types of institution of higher education “university” because universities are generally larger and more influential) straddle these divides—there are public universities, private not-for-profit universities, and private for-profit universities. I’ll focus on the second—private not-for-profit…
 
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    The Big Picture

  • Paul Volcker on Jamie Dimon

    Barry Ritholtz
    16 May 2012 | 5:00 am
    Bill Moyers: Dimon has been one of the most outspoken critics of the Volcker Rule, a section of the Dodd-Frank Act that aims to keep the banks in which you deposit your money from gambling it on their own sometimes-risky investments. Now Dimon has announced that risky trades have cost his company $2 billion in losses. In this April 22, 2012 Moyers Moment from Moyers & Company, Paul Volcker himself responds to Jamie Dimon’s direct complaints about the rule and its effects.

  • The Truth About JP Morgan’s $2 Billion Loss

    Washingtons Blog
    16 May 2012 | 12:30 am
    Posted on May 15, 2012 by WashingtonsBlog Must-Read Background Before we can understand what’s really going on with JP Morgan’s loss (which will probably end up being a lot more than $2 billion), we need a little background. JP Morgan: Is the world’s largest publicly-traded company Is the largest bank in the U.S. … the biggest of the too big to fail banks which are killing the American economy Is the largest derivatives dealer in the world (and see this), and derivatives are inherently destabilizing for the economy Essentially wrote the faux “reform” legislation for derivatives,…

  • If Information Is Power, What Is Lack Of Information?

    Invictus
    15 May 2012 | 6:30 pm
    I’m going to take the charitable (though probably mistaken) view and say that Representative Daniel Webster was not deliberately trying to turn out the lights on Americans’ access to critical data when he proposed an amendment to defund the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS). I tried (unsuccessfully) last year (here, here) to salvage the Statistical Abstract of the United States, a vital source of data since 1878. In fact, the book Fundamentals of Government Information – Mining, Finding, Evaluating and Using Government Resources says (emphasis mine): The…

  • BNN: Facebook Raises IPO Price Range

    Barry Ritholtz
    15 May 2012 | 4:30 pm
    Click to watch video: Source: Business News Network

  • 10 Tuesday PM Reads

    Barry Ritholtz
    15 May 2012 | 3:30 pm
    My afternoon reading: • Post-Financial Crisis – How do the Major Economic Players Stack Up? (Northern Funds) • Three reasons beating the market is so difficult (Dallas News) • The Economic Case for Same-Sex Marriage  (Bloomberg) • How Moore’s Law Affects Wall St. Trading (DealBook) • Media Analysis: Murdoch has been humiliated but much worse is yet to come (London Evening Standard) see also Scandal and Scrutiny Hem In Murdoch’s Empire (NYT) • 13 Disturbing Facts About McDonald’s (The Fiscal Times) • Jon Favreau Talks ‘Iron Man 3,’ Praises Joss Whedon for…
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    The Epicurean Dealmaker

  • Occupy Galt’s Gulch

    8 May 2012 | 9:25 pm
    “Each of us in this room has warmed ourself at fires we did not build, and each of us has drunk from wells we did not dig.” — Mark Shields, as heard, October 1997 I am not ashamed to confide, O Dearest and Most Equable of All Readers, that I have had a version of this particular post marinating in my brain for more than five years, from almost the first time I began laying finger to keyboard at this modest opinion emporium. Lord knows I have had numerous opportunities to release it over the intervening period, what with, in sequence, 20-something investment bankers,…

  • Prolegomena to Any Future Life

    6 May 2012 | 3:35 pm
    I.His vision, from the constantly passing bars, has grown so weary that it cannot hold anything else. It seems to him there are a thousand bars; and behind the bars, no world. As he paces in cramped circles, over and over, the movement of his powerful soft strides is like a ritual dance around a center in which a mighty will stands paralyzed. Only at times, the curtain of the pupils lifts, quietly—. An image enters in, rushes down through the tensed, arrested muscles, plunges into the heart and is gone. — Rainer Maria Rilke, “The Panther” 1 II.Here’s another…

  • Can’t Buy Me Love

    29 Apr 2012 | 9:43 am
    Say you don’t need no diamond ring And I’ll be satisfied Tell me that you want the kind of things That money just can’t buy I don’t care too much for money Money can’t buy me love — The Beatles, Can’t Buy Me Love (1964) The best things in life are free But you can keep ’em for the birds and bees Now give me money (that’s what I want) That’s what I want (that’s what I want) That’s what I want (that’s what I want) That’s what I want Your lovin’ gives me a thrill But your lovin’ don’t pay my…

  • A Good Offense

    22 Apr 2012 | 10:50 pm
    Kind-hearted people might of course think there was some ingenious way to disarm or defeat the enemy without too much bloodshed, and might imagine this is the true goal of the art of war. Pleasant as it sounds, it is a fallacy that must be exposed: war is such a dangerous business that the mistakes which come from kindness are the very worst. If defense is the stronger form of war, yet has a negative object, it follows that it should be used only so long as weakness compels, and be abandoned as soon as we are strong enough to pursue a positive object. — Carl von Clausewitz, Vom Kriege…

  • Odalisque

    14 Apr 2012 | 7:13 pm
    Dogs are our link to paradise. They don’t know evil or jealousy or discontent. To sit with a dog on a hillside on a glorious afternoon is to be back in Eden, where doing nothing was not boring—it was peace. — Milan Kundera A happy and peaceful weekend to you all, dogs included. © 2012 The Epicurean Dealmaker. All rights reserved.
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    The price of everything

  • Dimon geezers

    timprice
    12 May 2012 | 4:06 am
    “JP Morgan Chase last night announced a surprise $2 billion trading loss on credit derivatives trading, which chief executive Jamie Dimon blamed on “errors, sloppiness and bad judgment”, warning it “could get worse”. -     From The Financial Times, Friday 11th May 2012.   “The best way to build shareholder value is to build a great company, with exemplary products and  services,  excellent  systems,  quality  accounting  and  reporting,  effective  controls  and outstanding people.”…

  • Hand to hand combat with Martin Wolf

    timprice
    4 May 2012 | 2:47 am
    “James and I both have Range Rovers for running around, but he’s also got a black Lamborghini and a black Rolls-Royce, and I’ve a white Ferrari and a white Rolls-Royce.. I’m bored with designers like Dolce & Gabanna. I hate it when you know what label a person’s wearing – it doesn’t say luxury, it feels a bit Russian and cheap.. I don’t live in a bubble though.. I clear out my clothes every few weeks and send them to Croatia.. Our bedroom’s actually more like an apartment, with its own kitchen, bathrooms, lounge, dressing rooms..”  …

  • The politics of fear

    timprice
    30 Apr 2012 | 3:56 am
    “I’m getting increasingly worried about the free movement of people across Europe. It’s a very competitive world out there and my constituents resent that.”   -       Huddersfield Labour MP Barry Sheerman, defending comments he made on Twitter about Eastern European workers.   It was quite fitting that in a week that saw Britain slide into its first double-dip recession since 1975 we also saw evidence – notably from the political left – of the sort of insular bigotry and protectionist narrow-mindedness that one associates with that…

  • Party on ! (Or not.)

    timprice
    23 Apr 2012 | 5:05 am
    “The sea’s freezing. A man won’t last long in that. We’ve drawn a bad hand this time.”   “I’ve never been a good loser. I intend to get into a boat.”   -       Conversation between two card-players on The Titanic, from Eric Ambler’s screenplay, ‘A Night To Remember’.   The Titanic centenary was always going to be the trigger for a plethora of tasteless attempts to cash in on the tragedy. The “best” we’ve seen so far was the Hotel Russell’s promotion of its ‘Titanic breakfast’ – which presumably goes down…

  • What are economists for ?

    timprice
    16 Apr 2012 | 4:19 am
    “Most economists, it seems, believe strongly in their own superior intelligence and take themselves far too seriously. In his open letter of 22 July 2001 to Joseph Stiglitz, Kenneth Rogoff identified this problem. “One of my favourite stories from that era is a lunch with you and our former colleague, Carl Shapiro, at which the two of you started discussing whether Paul Volcker merited your vote for a tenured appointment at Princeton. At one point, you turned to me and said, “Ken, you used to work for Volcker at the Fed. Tell me, is he really smart ?” I responded something to the…
 
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    VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

  • Greece’s predicament: Lessons from Argentina

    15 May 2012 | 7:00 pm
    Peter Kretzmer, Mickey Levy, 16 May 2012Greece’s economic and financial crisis is quickly deteriorating and there is no strategy – or even a coalition government – to figure out what to do next. This column looks at the lessons from Argentina’s default in 2001 and argues that Greece’s road to necessary economic reforms, fiscal sustainability and recovery may be even more daunting.Full Article: Greece’s predicament: Lessons from Argentina

  • The Eurozone crisis: Fiscal fragility, external imbalances, or both?

    15 May 2012 | 7:00 pm
    Pietro Alessandrini, Michele Fratianni, Andrew Hughes Hallett, Andrea F Presbitero, 16 May 2012Unsustainable debt along Europe’s periphery is bringing the euro to breaking point. But this column argues that this is not simply the result of fiscal ill-discipline. After 2010, the Eurozone crisis went from a fiscal crisis to a balance-of-payments crisis – with different prescriptions for policy. Full Article: The Eurozone crisis: Fiscal fragility, external imbalances, or both?

  • Greasing the wheel: Oil’s role in the global crisis

    15 May 2012 | 7:00 pm
    Lucas Chancel, Thomas Spencer, 16 May 2012Between January 2002 and August 2008, the nominal oil price rose from $19.7 to $133.4 a barrel. This column gathers evidence on the role of this rise in prices in the global crisis. It suggests that oil prices had a direct impact on household expenditure on gasoline and increased mortgage delinquency rates. It adds that it also had many indirect impacts, notably though interest rate increases due to monetary policy. Full Article: Greasing the wheel: Oil’s role in the global crisis

  • School-to-work pathways in Europe and in the US

    14 May 2012 | 7:00 pm
    Glenda Quintini, 15 May 2012Recent sizeable increases in youth unemployment are compromising the school-to-work transition of recent school graduates. This column uses optimal matching, a method borrowed from molecular biology, to study the transitions from school to work in Europe and the US. It argues the share of youth facing serious difficulties on the labour market is 18 percentage points smaller in the US than in Europe. In Europe, 30% of youth face difficulties settling into the labour market and another 15% are trapped in long-term unemployment or inactivity. Full Article:…

  • Regional integration and natural resources: Who benefits?

    14 May 2012 | 7:00 pm
    Céline Carrère, Julien Gourdon, Marcelo Olarreaga, 15 May 2012Regional integration schemes that include natural-resource-abundant countries have by and large been unsuccessful. Part of the reason is the uneven distribution of gains when resource-poor and resource-rich countries integrate. This column presents new evidence suggesting that the slow progress of regional integration efforts in the Middle East and North Africa can be explained by the reluctance of resource-rich countries to enter into trade agreements that will hurt them.Full Article: Regional integration and natural resources:…
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    Cafe Hayek

  • Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    15 May 2012 | 8:19 am
    … is from Jonathan Macey’s fine essay in today’s Wall Street Journal – an essay whose title, “Losing Money Isn’t a Crime,” is spot-on correct and germane: The real lesson of what J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon has called the bank’s “egregious failure” in risk management is that hedging is far more difficult to do in real life than it appears to be in theory—because the real world is a complicated place. The trades that J.P. Morgan made were extremely complex, and it certainly appears that they did not work the way that they were…

  • Read to your kids (and teach them about money)

    Russ Roberts
    14 May 2012 | 9:39 am
    The latest EconTalk episode is David Owen talking about how to teach your kids about money. It’s based on his book, The First National Bank of Dad. The last part of the book and the podcast talk about reading to your kids and how wonderful it is for you and your kids. So I thought I’d list some of the books I’ve enjoyed reading to my kids. Feel free to buy them by clicking through and supporting the Cafe (or its owners, anyway.) I’m sure I’ve forgotten a bunch of others I loved. Add your own favorites in the comments. Harold and the Purple Crayon by Crockett…

  • Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    14 May 2012 | 7:41 am
    … is from John Tamny’s May 13th article “For De-Friending the U.S., Eduardo Saverin Is an American Hero“; Tamny here discussion’s Eduardo Saverin’s sensible move to keep more of what he’s earned – to justly protect his now-substantial property from U.S. tax collectors – by renouncing his U.S. citizenship: Oddly here, and this speaks to how silly the economic discussion has become, [Facebook] founder Mark Zuckerberg is being lionized for the presumed $1 billion in capital gains taxes he’ll pay the feds.  [Eduardo] Saverin’s…

  • Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    13 May 2012 | 6:31 am
    … is from page 27 of the 1997 collection of some of Leland Yeager’s finest essays, The Fluttering Veil (George Selgin, ed.); specifically, it’s from Leland’s 1971 essay “Monetarism”: Recognizing that the world is complicated is not the same as knowing how to succeed with complicated manipulations. (I had the great good fortune as a student to have had more than my share of outstanding professors – Israel Kirzner, Saul Levmore, and Fritz Machlup, to name only three in addition to Leland.  None surpassed, and few matched, Leland’s skill in the…

  • Some Links

    Don Boudreaux
    12 May 2012 | 12:32 pm
    David Henderson properly applauds Bob Murphy’s analysis of William Nordhaus on the science of global warming. Juan Carlos Hidalgo looks at French “austerity.” Marian Tupy looks at the Mayans Club of Rome’s latest end-of-the-world prediction.  (And I – here, and here – discuss different aspects of capitalism, politics, and the environment.) Here’s a short video of the great Johan Norberg on Europe’s woes. Bob Higgs explains why “In politics and government, however, the institutional makeup fosters hatred at every turn.” Raghuram…
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    Dollars & Sense Blog

  • Don’t Take Away My Oxycodone!

    Polly Cleveland
    6 May 2012 | 7:35 pm
    It feels like a large splinter jammed under my left thumbnail. From my thumb and forefinger, the skin burns in a strip up to my elbow. Recent shoulder surgery has left nerve damage, not uncommon. During the day, it’s a distraction; at night, much worse. Before bedtime, I swallow two 5 mg oxycodone. At 3 or 4 AM I jolt awake—my arm has turned into an alien serpent, its fangs sunk in my shoulder. I gulp two more oxycodone, chase them down with a Heineken, slap an ice pack on my arm, and browse the Financial Times until the pain fades. Hail to the god Morpheus, who gave poppies to our…

  • Social Security, Tuna Fish Economics, Philly Schools

    Chris Sturr
    29 Apr 2012 | 4:57 pm
      2001 Monolith (1) Misreporting Social Security: You may have noticed dire headlines about a recent report from the Obama administration about the (ill) financial health of Social Security and Medicare, e.g. the New York Times‘s Social Security’s Financial Health Worsens. There’s a great piece at the Campaign for America’s Future by RJ Eskow about how the media routinely misreport Social Security and Medicare’s financial situation, the causes, and the potential remedies: Here are some headlines you won’t see after the government releases new figures…

  • Pearidge, Trauma; 99 to 1; and The Self-Made Myth

    Polly Cleveland
    19 Apr 2012 | 6:29 pm
    The evening before Easter, well wined and dined at a fine Italian restaurant, we have returned to my mother’s house in DC. My brother and I are extracting our 92-year-old mother from his giant Chevy Tahoe. We turn, and there is my husband Tom, crumpled in the gutter, a pool of blood spreading under his head. Call 911! In five minutes, there are – count them – three police cars, two fire engines, and a passing Good Samaritan doctor. In another five minutes, a battered ambulance. In a flash, the medics have put a collar on Tom, strapped him to a board and scooted him into the…

  • Krugman/Keen Kerfuffle

    Chris Sturr
    10 Apr 2012 | 3:44 pm
    Debunking Economics Quite the online kerfuffle happened last week between New York Times columnist and economics Nobel laureate Paul Krugman and Australian left economist Steve Keen, author of Debunking Economics (see over above), of the blog Steve Keen’s Debt Watch, and of one of the articles in our book The Economic Crisis Reader, “The ‘Credit Tsunami’” (the title comes from Alan Greenspan’s famous October 2008 Congressional testimony in which he expressed his “shocked disbelief” about the financial meltdown). It seems to have started with a…

  • Trayvon Martin, Fear of Crime, and Mass Incarceration

    Chris Sturr
    4 Apr 2012 | 11:56 am
    This is the first of a series of guest posts we’ll be running by Peter Wagner, executive director of the Prison Policy Initiative; this post originally appeared at PPI’s website last week. The recent killing of unarmed African-American 17-year-old Trayvon Martin in Florida by a leader of a Community Watch program is sparking an overdue discussion about race, crime and Florida’s “stand your ground” law that makes it easier to shoot someone and claim self-defense. The vigilante ethos behind “Stand Your Ground” has very little to do with legitimate fears…
 
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    Economic Policy Institute - Feed

  • Prepared commencement address at the Loyola University Chicago School of Education

    Richard Rothstein
    10 May 2012 | 1:55 pm
    Thank you, Dr. Fine, President Garanzini, Dean Prasse, faculty, parents, and guests. Congratulations to the graduates. Good luck as you embark on new responsibilities in one of the most important enterprises with which our society can entrust you – the preparation of the next generation. Yet you leave here in a national climate of mistrust for all government, including public education. You are entering a highly politicized field where facts are too easily ignored. In medicine, and in all fields, we know you can’t design proper treatment if your diagnosis is factually flawed. Yet in…

  • Taxes have fallen furthest for those at the very top

    Josh Bivens
    10 May 2012 | 10:28 am
    With the Bush tax cuts scheduled to expire on Jan. 1, 2013, tax fairness is likely to be a prominent topic throughout the presidential campaign. The figure below provides some context for the debate over tax fairness, charting declines in effective tax rates for households at different points in the income distribution since 1995. The clear finding is that average effective tax rates have fallen more for high-income households over this time period; more than 9 percentage points for the top 0.01 percent of households and more than 6 percentage points for other households in the top 1 percent.

  • The odds of finding a job are improving, but are still stacked against job seekers

    Heidi Shierholz
    8 May 2012 | 11:21 am
    Today’s release of the March Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was mixed. Job openings increased by 172,000 in March. In combination with the drop in unemployment of 133,000 in March, this means that the “job seekers ratio”—the ratio of unemployed workers to job openings—declined moderately to 3.4-to-1. However, as the figure shows, it is still well above the highest point it reached during the early 2000s downturn, which was 2.9-to-1. Though there has been steady improvement in the last two-and-a-half years in the odds of finding a…

  • April job growth of 115,000 likely understates growth trend

    Heidi Shierholz
    4 May 2012 | 11:40 am
    The April 2012 employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 115,000 jobs were added in April.  This is a drop from earlier in the year, but much of the slowdown is likely due to seasonal factors, namely unseasonably warm weather in the winter (e.g., the unseasonably warm January and February boosted economic activity and meant some employers hired then, instead of waiting until the spring).  Given that, the average job growth of the last three months—176,000 jobs—is probably the best measure of the current underlying trend.  This trend is above the roughly 100,000 jobs…

  • Average job growth of last 3 months better measure of labor market than 115,000 jobs added in April

    Heidi Shierholz
    4 May 2012 | 8:02 am
    This morning’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 115,000 jobs were added in April.  This is a drop from recent months, but given seasonal factors, the average job growth of the last three months – 176,000 jobs – is probably the best measure of the current underlying trend.  This trend is well above the roughly 100,000 jobs per month we need to keep the unemployment rate stable, so the labor market continues to very slowly improve, but it is a far cry from the 300,000 or 400,000 jobs we would need per month to get back to full employment in a reasonable…
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    Business News, Financial News, Business Headlines & Analysis - The Washington Post

  • Ahead of IPO, Facebook loses GM ads

    Hayley Tsukayama
    15 May 2012 | 7:26 pm
    General Motors threw cold water on the buildup to Facebook’s red-hot initial public offering Tuesday, saying it will stop paid advertising on the social network, just days before Facebook’s market debut. Read full article >>

  • Boehner threatens another debt-ceiling fight

    Lori Montgomery
    15 May 2012 | 6:17 pm
    Washington braced Tuesday for a replay of last summer’s tense battle over the burgeoning national debt as House Speaker John A. Boehner threatened again to block an increase in the federal debt ceiling without significant new cuts in spending. Read full article >>

  • Reconciliation

    Brad Plumer
    15 May 2012 | 6:00 pm
    — Four scenarios for an end game in Greece. — A five-year investigation concludes that a man was wrongfully executed in Texas. — Study: 29 percent of Americans will sleepwalk in their lifetime. (Seriously?) Read full article >>

  • Rebekah Brooks, former Murdoch editor, charged in phone-hacking scandal

    Michael Holden, Kate Holton, Reuters
    15 May 2012 | 5:57 pm
    LONDON — Rebekah Brooks, a confidante of Rupert Murdoch, was charged Tuesday with interfering with a police investigation into a phone-hacking scandal that has rocked the media tycoon’s empire and sent shock waves through the British political establishment. Read full article >>

  • READ: Mitt Romney’s remarks on the debt

    Ezra Klein
    15 May 2012 | 5:14 pm
    Today, in Des Moines, Iowa, Mitt Romney delivered a speech his campaign billed as a significant address on the national debt. His prepared remarks — minus some introductory material about the greatness of Iowa — follow: Read full article >>
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    Credit Slips

  • Storage Wars and the Credit Practices Rule

    Bob Lawless
    15 May 2012 | 10:59 am
    A few times I have caught Storage Wars, a television show on A&E. When storage units customers do not pay their fees, the contents are auctioned off by the storage unit company. The show follows professional treasure hunters who bid at these auctions. The catch is that the treasure hunters are purchasing the unit without full knowledge of the unit's contents. With all the drama of finding out what was behind door number three on Let's Make a Deal, viewers get to watch these treasure hunters paw through the storage unit's contents and try to profit by finding items of real…

  • Doggie DNA Tests: Waste of Money or Legitimate Tool?

    Nathalie Martin
    8 May 2012 | 3:37 pm
    Do mutt-lovers (with admittedly too much time and money on their hands) get anything in exchange for the $75-100 they pay to find out what kind of dog they have? It depends. My advice: before ordering a doggie DNA test over the net, do lots of research. Perhaps just have the vet do it.  If you do order a test over the internet, make sure you pick one that tests for the maximum number of breeds and that gets very high marks from consumers, and carefully read the fine print. Now they tell me, the more mixed your mutt is, the less likely you are to get any info at all from the test. I’ll let…

  • Consumer Scam Review: Lower Your Interest Rate, Lower Your Credit Card Balances, and Work at Home

    Nathalie Martin
    8 May 2012 | 3:16 pm
    I have been meaning to write on several consumer scams so here are a few to avoid. “We Can Lower Your Home Loan Interest Rate” Scams.  We’ve all gotten the calls at home. “We can lower your interest rate.” “The banks got their bail-out, now get yours.” But imagine what it feels like if you really need that kind of help. The false hope these scams create is criminal. One of my coworkers has been going through a Chapter 13 in which her mortgage payments are really high. She got this card in the mail asking her to call 800-936-4400 and saying that they could lower her…

  • Affidavits Are Not a Substitute for Evidence of Debt Ownership

    Bob Lawless
    7 May 2012 | 11:57 am
    The Tennessee Court of Appeals has issued a decision that highlights the problems facing credit card debt collectors in a post-robosigning world (see here and here). The decision reaffirms what should be a simple principle in a debt-collection lawsuit. The burden is on the debt collector to show it owns the debt and to show the consumer is liable for the amount the debt collector asserts. The debt collector's say-so is not enough. In LVNV Funding, the consumer had opened a Sears Gold Mastercard account in 1985 and was being sued for a balance that was a little more than $15,000. He had…

  • What say?

    Stephen Lubben
    7 May 2012 | 5:21 am
    Gretchen Morgenson, in Mortgage Unit Troubles Ally Financial explains that: Although repurchase claimants would be considered general unsecured creditors in a ResCap bankruptcy, the put-back demands would very likely be somewhat senior to those of other unsecured creditors because of their contractual nature.
 
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    Megan McArdle : The Atlantic

  • The Wacky World of Prices: Rental Cars, Hollywood, and HBO

    Megan McArdle
    15 May 2012 | 1:35 pm
    Guest post by Gabriel Rossman -- Sociologist at UCLA. His work applies economic sociology to media industries. He blogs at Code and Culture and is the author of Climbing the Charts. I study media markets and one of the interesting things about the entertainment industry is there's a lot of complex pricing. This includes both simple bundling (eg, basic cable) and two-part tariffs (eg, HBO). These pricing practices are forms of price discrimination, which is to say they are ways to customize the price point so the seller doesn't leave much money on the table relative to each particular…

  • What Is Causality?

    Megan McArdle
    15 May 2012 | 9:31 am
    Guest post by Jim Manzi, founder and Chairman of Applied Predictive Technologies, and the author of Uncontrolled: The Surprising Payoff of Trial-and-Error for Business, Politics and Society.Gabriel, your very deep post that, in passing, requested my comment was fascinating.My family thanks you for the weekend I just spent staring off into space. You open with this: Sampling error? Omitted variable bias? Bah, that's for first-year grad students. What I find really interesting is there are some fairly basic principles for how analysis can get really screwy but which can't be fixed by adding…

  • What Really Happened to Income Inequality in the 20th Century?

    Megan McArdle
    14 May 2012 | 3:45 pm
    Guest post by Scott Winship, Brookings Institution. Follow him on Twitter: @swinshi I promised that this was the last post I would write this week dwelling on rising inequality at the top, and I do want to shift to the comparatively under-appreciated lack of rising inequality in the bottom half of incomes.  But bear with me, as this turned into two separate posts.  To review, in my first post on high-end inequality, I showed how outsized gains at the top are mostly concentrated in the top half of the top one percent and noted that these gains came even as the poor and middle class became…

  • The Wacky World of Prices: Rental Cars, Hollywood, and HBO

    Megan McArdle
    14 May 2012 | 1:35 pm
    Guest post by Gabriel Rossman -- Sociologist at UCLA. His work applies economic sociology to media industries. He blogs at Code and Culture and is the author of Climbing the Charts. I study media markets and one of the interesting things about the entertainment industry is there's a lot of complex pricing. This includes both simple bundling (eg, basic cable) and two-part tariffs (eg, HBO). These pricing practices are forms of price discrimination, which is to say they are ways to customize the price point so the seller doesn't leave much money on the table relative to each particular…

  • The 1% Conundrum: How Much Income Inequality Is There, Really?

    Megan McArdle
    14 May 2012 | 7:50 am
    Guest post by Scott Winship, Brookings Institution. Follow him on Twitter: @swinshi My last post provided an initial look at the inequality figures focusing on "the top one percent," which show sharply rising income concentration over the past 30 years.  But those figures rely entirely or heavily on tax return data from the IRS.  This creates some issues that warrant skepticism about the magnitude of the increase I described. Piketty and Saez rank order and compare tax returns to isolate "the top one percent."  But that is not the same thing as rank-ordering and comparing households. …
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    InvestorCentric

  • Inflation May Help Economy, Expert Says

    Eric Ames
    9 May 2012 | 9:49 am
    At least one economist argues that allowing inflation to occur “naturally” could actually help the struggling U.S. economy. Mark Thoma notes the Federal Reserve is expected to implement controls if inflation approaches 2% and unemployment remains high by raising interest rates in an effort to retain “inflation credibility,” rather than keeping them low through 2014 as it had previously announced it would do. Thoma argues, however, that exerting control to hit a particular inflation target absent consideration of the other factors is unwise, and that inflation during a recession can…

  • Krugman Criticizes Ron Paul

    Eric Ames
    2 May 2012 | 9:17 am
    Economist Paul Krugman, no lightweight when it comes to fiscal knowledge, recently debated sometime Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul on the issue of his Paul’s prediction of runaway inflation, and criticized the politician’s vague references to ancient history by way of response. Krugman contends that it is no accident that politician’s cite murky historical anecdotes as a way to establish credibility for positions on current affairs, despite having a century’s worth of well-documented knowledge from which to draw – if only it supported the desired conclusion. For more on…

  • Are Higher Tax Rates Really That Bad?

    Eric Ames
    25 Apr 2012 | 10:00 am
    The Laffer Curve is an economic theory that pinpoints a revenue-maximizing percentage for taxation; in other words, it prescribes a certain tax percentage beyond which tax revenues actually start to decrease due to tax avoidance, evasion and nonpayment. Economists Peter Diamond and Emmanuel Saez believe the percentage for those in the top 1% of U.S. earners hovers somewhere between 50%-70%, meaning the government could raise their tax rate up to at least 50% before seeing a drop in revenue. The wealthy heartily disagree, but there is no way to tell other than to look at historical data, which…

  • Election Year Spurs Small Business Giveaways

    Eric Ames
    19 Apr 2012 | 9:57 am
    The struggling U.S. economy during an election year means many politicians are crafting policy aimed at small businesses in the hopes of scoring points with voters; however, statistics from the Joint Committee on Taxation and the Tax Policy Center reveal these measures really don’t help. The estimated cost to government for the Small Business Tax Cut proposal is $46 billion, and experts say most benefits will go to those earning $1 million or more and will not help create any jobs. Economist Bruce Bartlett argues that money would be better spent on infrastructure, and politicians can spin…

  • Examining Employment Recovery Cycles

    Eric Ames
    6 Apr 2012 | 9:45 am
    Economist Tim Duy examines compares recent job growth and losses with historical data to explain what is happening in the U.S. economy now and what can be expected in the future. He demonstrates a parallel between post-1990 employment recovery failures and manufacturing job recovery, which prompts him to consider whether job losses are structural or cyclical based on losses in supply jobs vs. demand jobs. Duy then ties capital and currency manipulation to job growth, and wonders how much Chinese financial policy and a global demand shortfall impacted U.S. employment in the ‘90s, and whether…
 
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    The Aleph Blog

  • Skewed Incentives

    David Merkel
    16 May 2012 | 1:17 am
    May is a tough month for me, because I have to submit reports for the nonprofits that I work with, and this year is worse, because I have a moderate injury that I need  to see a doctor about, but can’t until next week, because of the schedule.But I do want to say a few things about the JP Morgan news.  First, JP Morgan should be broken up, whether state by state, or by Federal reserve district, with an investment bank spun off as well.Second, after we have been through 2008, why do we care about a piddling $2Billion+ loss?  JP Morgan’s balance sheet can handle far more than…

  • Crossroads

    David Merkel
    14 May 2012 | 11:43 pm
    This is a confusing time:Lousy fiscal policy — way too much borrowing by the governmentLousy monetary policy — way too much expansion of the monetary base, and for little good reason, and funding the deficits of the government as a result…Negative real interest rates on Treasuries 15 years out; that is financial repression, and that can’t happen without the Treasury and Fed conspiring to do so.Low equity market valuations, but only because profit margins are abnormally high.  There are reasons to think that profit margins will not mean-revert this time, because the…

  • Simple Stock Valuation

    David Merkel
    12 May 2012 | 11:08 pm
    I appreciate Eddy Elfenbein.  He comes up with ideas that make me say, “Huh. Interesting.  Let’s test that.”  His recent article, World’s Simplest Stock Valuation Measure, put forth the idea that:Growth Rate/2 + 8 = PE RatioCool, reminds me of my 1993 formula for value investing:Price per share < Tangible Book per share + 5 * EPSEddy’s idea is that you can buy a company that isn’t growing or shrinking earnings at a PE of 8, or alternatively, a E/P (earnings yield) of 12.5%.  In a weird environment like this, it means an earnings yield that is more than…

  • Sorted Weekly Tweets

    David Merkel
    12 May 2012 | 12:06 am
    Eurozone Danske Bank’s Patience With Moody’s Evaporates http://t.co/eGbf3kV5 Questions over willingness of Denmark to provide support in a crisis. May 11, 2012CIC Stops Buying Europe Government Debt on Crisis Concern http://t.co/dljk9Tau Overblown; China will return to funding the Eurozone $$ May 10, 2012Greeks May Hold $510 Billion Trump Card in Renegotiation http://t.co/P7U4LSpG Depends on how well Core EZone banks have divested Greece $$ May 10, 2012Spanish Banks Erode Creditors With ECB Loans http://t.co/HaEx3bgT Better collateral highly encumbered; Unsec debts implicitly subord…

  • Book Review: The Little Book of Emerging Markets

    David Merkel
    11 May 2012 | 11:24 pm
    This book is written by one of the foremost stock investors in emerging markets, Mark Mobius.  This is a short book that has little to no math in it, and few graphs.  It can be read in 2-3 hours.The edge that this book will give you is understanding the limitations of emerging market investing.  What are those limitations?1) Emerging markets are volatile, and dependent on the overall health of the developed economies.  Companies in emerging markets often export to the developed nations.  Emerging market governments often gear their monetary policy to aid their exporters, which forces…
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    Quoting the Crisis

  • "How many billions in damages JP Morgan will have to pay out is not yet determined but inside their..."

    15 May 2012 | 9:19 am
    “How many billions in damages JP Morgan will have to pay out is not yet determined but inside their Mortgage-Backed Securities and Repurchase Litigation note on the 10-Q the bank tells us “There are currently pending and tolled investor and monoline claims involving approximately $120 billion of such securities.”” - SEC Tells JP Morgan Enforcement Action Coming over Bear’s Mortgage Backed Securities Violations « TERI BUHL

  • "Well, Jamie, I know, is a phenomenal banker. So I would acknowledge that if we had to choose…most..."

    15 May 2012 | 5:41 am
    “Well, Jamie, I know, is a phenomenal banker. So I would acknowledge that if we had to choose…most people would choose him and not me. But, I think fundamentally what he’s saying is ‘the way we did business before, we’re not going to be able to do under the capital and liquidity rules that we have.’ And that’s exactly what the regulator’s trying to get you to do, is change your business model. And no one likes to change their business model. I believe in capitalism and I believe in an economy, what happens when you increase the cost of a good. So do I think 10 years from now…

  • "I think a big part of the answer requires rethinking in a direction quite different from the one..."

    12 May 2012 | 5:16 am
    “I think a big part of the answer requires rethinking in a direction quite different from the one that the right is pushing: to considerably narrow the tax-free provisions for mergers, acquisitions and spin-offs; to modify the transfer pricing formula to reject treatment of intellectual property developed in this country as “sold” to a controlled subsidiary; to recognize the need to protect domestic industry from globalization that leaves us too dependent on imports; and to re-invigorate anti-trust and consumer protection laws so that industries can no longer sell products and leave…

  • "At the board meeting in January, Lehman management explained that while other Wall Street firms were..."

    11 May 2012 | 9:13 am
    “At the board meeting in January, Lehman management explained that while other Wall Street firms were raising “significant capital” in the “past three months,” for Lehman “aggressive capital raising is not necessary” because the firm “remains strongly capitalized” thanks to capital “generated by earnings.” Knowing that Lehman would be belly up by the end of September 2008, reading these e-mails and documents is cringe- inducing. Unfortunately, given the lack of leadership we still see on much of Wall Street, they will hardly be the last of their kind.” - William D.

  • "One of the major problems facing this country today, and its economy, is the huge gap between the..."

    11 May 2012 | 5:42 am
    “One of the major problems facing this country today, and its economy, is the huge gap between the income of a few ultra rich and the rest of us, and the near-poverty level of income for many Americans. Countries with such inequalities generally have poor quality of life indicators on a lot of fronts, and the US is no exception. Teenage birth rates, illiteracy, health care, low-birth weight babies, unemployment—a litany of societal ills accompanies high inequality within a society, and the US suffers from almost all of them.” - Linda Beale in Summers says taxes must increase | Angry…
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    IMF Survey Magazine

  • Costly Mideast Subsidies Need Better Targeting

    14 May 2012 | 12:03 pm
    Well-intended energy and food price subsidies are increasingly weighing on government budgets and debt levels across the Middle East and North Africa and are not necessarily the most efficient way to channel aid to the most vulnerable, participants at a recent IMF seminar said.

  • Africa Sustains Growth Despite Global Uncertainty

    14 May 2012 | 8:08 am
    Despite the weaker global economic environment, sub-Saharan Africa is expected to continue growing strongly in 2012. GDP growth is forecast to increase slightly from the 2011 average of 5 percent, according to the IMF in its latest assessment of the region's economy.

  • Reforms to Strengthen Economic Stability Will Help Turkey's Growth and Jobs

    11 May 2012 | 10:55 am
    Turkey, at the crossroads of Europe and the Middle East, is a key player in the global economy that has seen ten years of high growth. Going forward, it will be important that the country continues to implement economic reforms to sustain stability, growth and to increase employment, said Christine Lagarde on her first trip to the country since her selection as head of the International Monetary Fund.

  • Asia Faces Stronger Growth, but Further Rebalancing Critical

    10 May 2012 | 9:39 am
    Growth in Asia is expected to pick up this year, after slowing in the last quarter of 2011, but Asian leaders now face the difficult task of adjusting policies to support stable, non-inflationary growth, say IMF economists.

  • Myanmar Set for Economic Takeoff With Right Policies

    7 May 2012 | 10:14 pm
    Myanmar’s new government faces an historic opportunity to jump start economic development, and lift living standards, says the IMF in its annual assessment of the Southeast Asian economy, which the government agreed to make public for the first time.
 
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    SPG Trend Blog

  • Austerity Programs Fail

    rduvall
    27 Apr 2012 | 3:09 pm
    Earlier this month the IMF updated its world economic outlook, with a very modest increase in growth projections for this year. However, it warned of continued economic risks in Europe and emerging industrialized economies in Asia and Latin America. The IMF forecast is consistent with our own forecasts of the last six months and we remain less optimistic about world growth because of our continued expectations of recession in Europe which are being confirmed by the economic contractions in an increasing number of EU economies in the fourth quarter of 2011 and the first calendar quarter of…

  • If you missed it the first time around…

    rduvall
    8 Mar 2012 | 3:41 pm
    If you were unable to tune in on Tuesday at 2pm, Ashford has made Mr. Segall’s interview available on the web! This most recent discussion covers everything from the current state of the US economy, to the turmoil in the Middle East. Follow the link below to hear the latest!

  • New Interviews Available

    rduvall
    24 Feb 2012 | 4:18 pm
    Reminder: Tune in Tuesday, March 6 at 2pm to listen to Mr. Segall’s broadcast on Ashford Radio! You may listen to the broadcasts and ask questions by signing onto www.ashfordradio.com, select Studio A and look for the interview with Morris Segall. The interviews will also be accessible by telephone at 760-542-4100. These broadcasts will enable us to deliver to our clients and subscribers our current analyses and thoughts on contemporary events, national and international economies, U.S. politics, geopolitics and international capital markets in a recurring and timely manner. We hope…

  • Tune in!!

    rduvall
    17 Feb 2012 | 3:17 pm
    Reminder: Tune in Tuesday, February 21 at 2pm to listen to Mr. Segall’s broadcast on Ashford Radio! As in the January 18th interview, you may listen to the broadcasts and ask questions by signing onto www.ashfordradio.com, select Studio A and look for the interview with Morris Segall. The interviews will also be accessible by telephone at 760-542-4100. These broadcasts will enable us to deliver to our clients and subscribers our current analyses and thoughts on contemporary events, national and international economies, U.S. politics, geopolitics and international capital markets in a…

  • New Interview Available: SPG In The News!

    rduvall
    15 Feb 2012 | 10:00 am
    If you happened to miss last week’s interview, you may now listen online! Be sure to check out his interview with Ashford Radio.  
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    24/7 Wall St.

  • What’s Important in the Financial World (5/16/2012) New Greek Elections, Oil Prices Fall

    247wallst
    16 May 2012 | 5:43 am
    It appears increasingly likely that concerns about the future of Greece will depress equity markets worldwide. Politicians in the country have failed to set a coalition government, despite several...

  • Nine Major Ways Criminals Use Facebook

    Mike Sauter
    16 May 2012 | 5:33 am
    This Friday, Facebook will go public in one of the most anticipated IPOs in history. With more than 900 million users, Mark Zuckerberg’s expanding social media empire has become a seemingly...

  • JCPenney and Nokia — When a New CEO Fails

    247wallst
    16 May 2012 | 5:30 am
    It is rare, but some new chief executives fail early — just after they begin their new jobs. That leaves boards with impossible decisions. How will the stock market react to the admission of a...

  • As European Car Sales Slide, the Industry Gets Desperate

    247wallst
    16 May 2012 | 5:29 am
    The European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) announced that April sales of cars and light trucks in the region were “6.9% less than in the same month of 2011.” That means only 1,017,912...

  • T-Mobile, Like Sprint, Loses Battle for Market Share

    247wallst
    16 May 2012 | 5:29 am
    T-Mobile, the wireless operation of Deutsche Telekom, probably will never recover from a failed takeover bid by AT&T (NYSE: T). The FCC and the U.S. Department of Justice killed the deal, and all...
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    The Baseline Scenario

  • Regression to the Mean, JPMorgan Edition

    James Kwak
    14 May 2012 | 9:58 am
    By James Kwak I haven’t been writing about the JPMorgan debacle because, well, everyone else is writing about it. One theme that has stuck out for me, however, has been everyone’s reflexive surprise that this could happen at JPMorgan, supposedly the best and most competent of the big banks. For example, Lisa Pollock of Alphaville, who has provided some of the most detailed analyses of what happened, asked, “could this really happen under CEO Jamie Dimon’s watch?” Dawn Kopecki and Max Adelson at Bloomberg referred to “JPMorgan’s cultivated reputation for…

  • Making Banks Small Enough And Simple Enough To Fail

    Simon Johnson
    12 May 2012 | 4:57 am
    By Simon Johnson Almost exactly two years ago, at the height of the Senate debate on financial reform, a serious attempt was made to impose a binding size constraint on our largest banks. That effort – sometimes referred to as the Brown-Kaufman amendment – received the support of 33 senators and failed on the floor of the Senate. (Here is some of my Economix coverage from the time.) On Wednesday, Senator Sherrod Brown, Democrat of Ohio, introduced the Safe, Accountable, Fair and Efficient Banking Act, or SAFE, which would force the largest four banks in the country to shrink. (Details of…

  • JP Morgan Debacle Reveals Fatal Flaw In Federal Reserve Thinking

    Simon Johnson
    11 May 2012 | 6:38 am
    By Simon Johnson Experienced Wall Street executives and traders concede, in private, that Bank of America is not well run and that Citigroup has long been a recipe for disaster.  But they always insist that attempts to re-regulate Wall Street are misguided because risk-management has become more sophisticated – everyone, in this view, has become more like Jamie Dimon, head of JP Morgan Chase, with his legendary attention to detail and concern about quantifying the downside. In the light of JP Morgan’s stunning losses on derivatives, announced yesterday but with the full scope of total…

  • Bad Dividend Math

    James Kwak
    9 May 2012 | 8:07 pm
    By James Kwak While working on a new Atlantic column, I came across this article by Donald Luskin (hat tip Felix Salmon/Ben Walsh) arguing that “Taxmageddon” (the expiration of the Bush tax cuts at the end of the year) will cause the stock market to fall by 30 percent.* His argument is basically this: if the marginal tax rate on dividends increases from 15 percent to 43.4 percent, the after-tax yield falls by 33.4 percent, so stock prices should fall by about the same amount. Ordinarily I don’t bother with faulty claims like this—there are only so many hours in the…

  • Who Pays for Facts?

    James Kwak
    8 May 2012 | 7:53 pm
    By James Kwak The Internet has made possible a golden age of commentary. Anyone with a computer and an Internet connection can create a blog and comment to her heart’s content. Yet as one of those commenters with a free blog, I am painfully aware that this hypertrophy of analysis has not been matched by corresponding growth in the stuff that we analyze: facts. There is no way we could have written White House Burning, with its one hundred pages of endnotes, without someone else to do the primary research: either the journalistic kind, calling around to sources in Washington to figure…
 
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    Minyanville.com - All Articles

  • Double Diagonal: An Option Strategy for a Range-Bound Market

    15 May 2012 | 4:35 pm
    MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL While the market has definitely pulled back over the past two weeks the bears can't seem to gain any real control as the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) has basically settled along the 1350 fulcrum level over the past few days. At the moment investors seem paralyzed by opposing forces. On one side we have attractive fundamentals in which corporations are delivering healthy profits and valuations are attractive especially relative to near-zero interest rates. On the other hand the triumvirate of the euro mess a sluggish employment picture and evidence of a slowdown in the…

  • Minyanville's T3 Daily Recap: Apple Weighs on Market, Breaks Major Support

    15 May 2012 | 4:35 pm
    Less than an hour before the open Tuesday the market finally looked set for an oversold bounce. German GDP data was better than expected and the oversold S&P was set to open almost 10 handles higher. However a lack of consensus in Greece sent the government back for new elections pushing the futures lower into a down open. Stocks twice tried to bounce in the morning but were still unable to pick up any momentum. The action remains heavy and it is not attractive to buy this dip yet. That doesn&#39;t meant a bounce is impossible but from a risk

  • What We Can Learn From the Cost of Hedging

    15 May 2012 | 4:05 pm
    One of the things we track at my firm Buy and Hedge very closely is the cost of hedging. As a proxy we look at what it costs to purchase puts 10% below the S&P for short and long-term interval. This level isn't necessarily anything special except it seems to be the midpoint of what most investors are willing to endure at any given time. We track the cost of these puts as the daily cost for the protection they provide. Using the same calculations for portfolio put hedges from our book we are able to determine the daily cost

  • Gold and Euro Stretched to Their Breaking (Back) Points

    15 May 2012 | 3:55 pm
    The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract&#39;s current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each. Today's Highlight: The timing for either an up-crash or down-crash in gold and the euro is coming in right on schedule with each probing aggressively lower. Their markets are uniquely vulnerable to reacting up sharply or else to plunging significantly further. Dollar Basket Jun Contract DX; (UUP) (UDN) Only a shallow dip would…

  • Why Citigroup Is No JPMorgan

    15 May 2012 | 3:50 pm
    I&#39;ve been bullish on banks all year and in particular I have become somewhat enamored with the turnaround story that has become Bank of America (BAC). However I have no shame in admitting that the $2 billion derivatives loss announced last week by JPMorgan (JPM) has become a significant test on my resolve to the extent that I have started to look within the entire sector more closely. What I have found is that not only are each of the banks different but the complex nature of how they make money while it may pose a risk to one is
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    Howard Lindzon

  • Momentum Monday…The Facebook IPO…What a Market Top Looks Like Part 3

    Howard
    15 May 2012 | 12:42 am
    My first worries about this current market run and potential ‘Top’ began in February. I followed up in April when I sold the last of my AAPL. Today when I check the quotes of the stocks I own, I expect them to be down 20 percent because of Greece. It’s all part of the business of investing. What really changes when Facebook goes public this Thursday? For one, with the Facebook FB IPO, there will be less secrets in social. There will be more hype about ‘data’ as a business model. There will be way more pressure on companies to explain their mobile monetization…

  • Yahoo and $2.1 Billion of Cash….Party Time Ross!

    Howard
    13 May 2012 | 12:59 pm
    It would be a BLAST to be in control of $2.1 billion. First off, I could call my buddies at JP Morgan, or as I like to cal them ‘Jip Me’ Morgan and turn that into $3 trillion in derivatives and plunk it down in a greek recovery led by the lovely ‘Golden Dawn’ party. I kid. There is no one way that Ross can fix things. The Board is a shitshow of ego’s and self dealers. I would focus on the strengths like Sports and Finance where the demographics of the user are best and wrap a communication product around them to start. I would continue to slash and burn on the…

  • Momentum Tuesday…Cracks!

    Howard
    8 May 2012 | 4:11 pm
    The Momentum stocks are cracking. Today it was FOSL which is a store I have never shopped in but a teen favorite. Rackspace RAX, a longtime holding, also got whacked today. As I say in the show, this stuff just happens to you when you invest in big trends and momentum stocks. The cracks at the edge of momentum land have started to bleed into the general market, but institutions should step into the market here. Institutions have to follow one another and are generally lazy thinkers so markets just work this way. It’s an uptrend. That said, I am watching my stocks like I always do and…

  • Momentum Monday…The Law of Large Numbers and Why Apple is Stalling

    Howard
    1 May 2012 | 2:41 am
    Sorry about the sound for the first 10 minutes of the show. I have so much fun making Momentum Monday with Jon and Ivan. It helps me think about the bigger picture and catch up on what I am doing right and wrong over time. I promise to be more careful about the production value going forward. I am just trying to be consistent producing the show. The valuations of todays tech leaders is getting hard for most to digest. It is upsetting the non participators. Facebook is less than 10 years old and can pay $1 billion for 3 year old Instagram which is more than ANYONE will pay for The New York…

  • Is it a Tech Bubble?…NO…Just too many Wantrepreneurs

    Howard
    29 Apr 2012 | 8:30 pm
    We are NOT in a technology bubble. We are in the ‘Great Network Chase of 2012′. The bubble discussion is on in full force today again. Chris Dixon starts off the latest meme. Nick Bilton, from The New York Times…now at a valuation less than Instagram (so not sure it is worth the read versus sharing another photo), chimes in here. Personally, I don’t like when journalists focus in on massive outliers to prove a point. I would argue from my experience starting and investing in companies that we have too many Wantrepreneurs. It is very difficult to define an entrepreneur…
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    Information Arbitrage

  • Building the perfect machine

    14 May 2012 | 9:46 am
    If the goal is to do something exceptional, nothing is more important than building a great team. It is very rare that success is a truly individual discipline. Whether one is talking about world-class researchers, top-tier tennis players or sought-after start-up founders, stellar results are the outgrowth of carefully coordinated and chemically-balanced team efforts. I had the benefit of witnessing this first-hand during my Wall Street career and subsequently in my time as an angel and venture investor. The best leaders consistently attract and retain the best teams. But doing this requires…

  • Play your game

    11 May 2012 | 1:42 pm
    I’ve written a lot about the importance of focus among start-up teams. This is a very closely held belief. Develop a hypothesis. Test the hypothesis. If proven, move forward and add gas. If disproven stop, take stock, and determine whether or not to gin up a new hypothesis or go home. The same is true for investors. All the noise around crowdfunding, party deals and all-angel rounds changing the face of the venture industry doesn’t resonate with me. What it does say is that there is more seed stage capital available from a broader array of sources that will give more chances to…

  • Some thoughts on JPM

    11 May 2012 | 9:09 am
    With the web afire with criticism over JP Morgan’s recently announced (and unexpected) $2 billion trading loss, a few “life lessons” came to mind as to how Jamie Dimon - and his PR department - bungled this badly: Know the facts before taking a stand. When news of a “London Whale” came to light a month ago, and this trader was linked to JP Morgan, Dimon issued a strenuous denial that his was a big deal. According to the Wall Street Journal, and I’d tend to agree with them, Dimon didn’t understand the true extent of his trader’s activities or the…

  • Board member vs. mentor dynamics

    8 May 2012 | 3:47 pm
    As a venture investor, I spend a ton of time trying to as helpful as I can be to my portfolio companies. Most of my regular contact is with the CEO and founder. I actively try to understand what they most need from me and to give it to them. Sometimes it is functional help: thinking through their financial model, hiring plans, financing strategy, etc. Other times it is help “closing the deal” with key accounts or recruits. But there are moments when what they really need is a confidant, someone whom they trust and who can give them truthful, unvarnished feedback and perspective in…

  • Entrepreneurship and optionality don't mix

    1 May 2012 | 9:44 pm
    Laser focus vs. keeping options open. This is an eternal struggle faced by start-up founders and corporate CEOs alike. While focus brings both purpose and increased odds of meeting a particular goal, leaders are plagued by the fear of “What if the goal I’ve achieved is the wrong goal?  I’ll have hurt the company, my reputation, my ego and my career in one fell swoop.” This dynamic was outlined in a recent Harvard Business Review article discussing Apple’s success in the wake of Steve Jobs’ return: But then my Apple lunch companion wondered aloud:…
 
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    Economic Principals

  • History Matters

    admin
    13 May 2012 | 4:29 pm
    When Harvard president Drew Faust, a historian, overruled her economics department in the spring of 2008 and passed up the chance to hire the husband-and-wife team of Christina and David Romer, certain compensations were set in train. Christina Romer became chairman of President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers. The University of California at Berkeley got to keep the Romers. (David Romer is author of a leading graduate macroeconomics text.) The Harvard economics department was permitted to hire as part-time visiting professor, Stanley Engerman, of the University of…

  • On Financial Peace of Mind

    admin
    6 May 2012 | 4:03 pm
    The death of the middle class has been greatly exaggerated.  It’s not that future generations of this great estate won’t find themselves tested in a changing world. But an enormous quantity of wealth has been built up in the sixty-seven  years since the end of World War II. The retirement of the generation of the baby boom will dominate the investment business for the next twenty years.  Its experience will shape the industry for the rest of the twenty-first century and beyond.  The shape of the industry, in turn, will help determine if there is to continue to be a “middle class.”…

  • Regulating Banking, Regulating Healthcare

    admin
    29 Apr 2012 | 4:16 pm
    The Federal Reserve System seems to be regaining a measure of its former prestige, despite (or perhaps thanks to) continued sniping, left and right. Next year will be the hundredth anniversary of its creation. There is a growing recognition that, while the Fed failed in its supervision of bank lending, spectacularly and instructively,  it has performed admirably its other two tasks: panic control and, in the years since 1979,  price stability and full employment. Therefore I want to return to a point made here before. The regulation of health care in the United States is following, by fits…

  • In Which the Bloomberg Kids Put on a Show

    admin
    22 Apr 2012 | 4:01 pm
    In a better world, the Pulitzer Prize for editorial writing this year might have gone to the organization that wrote a judicious series of articles examining the tension between desirable everyday transparency in banking and the protective secrecy that on occasion is suddenly required to stem a financial panic; a series which, in the process, explained why, after not experiencing a banking panic for 75 years, the US confronted a desperate one in September 2008. Alas, there was no such series.  The closest anyone came to writing anything like it was a low-key 3,000-word article by former…

  • Odds and Ends

    admin
    15 Apr 2012 | 6:01 pm
    Now that it’s agreed that Mitt Romney will be the Republican Party nominee in the fall election, the former governor of Massachusetts will come in for a closer look. It’s hard to imagine that much new biographical material about President Barack Obama will surface at this point. There is his own autobiographical Dreams From My Father: A Story of Race and Inheritance; biographies by two of the best political journalists in the business, The Bridge: The Life and Rise of Barack Obama, by David Remnick, of The New Yorker; and  Barack Obama: The Story, by David Maraniss, of  The Washington…
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    Marginal Revolution

  • I know, I know, M2 isn’t exactly the right indicator

    Tyler Cowen
    16 May 2012 | 12:48 am
    Still, I find this interesting: M2 money supply growth rates are plunging in Greece (down -16.8% y/y through February), Spain (down -4.7%), and Portugal (-3.8% through January). It is up only 1.3% through February in Italy. Germany’s M2 is up 7.5% y/y through February. Some of that growth is coming from Greece, Portugal, and Spain, where money supplies are falling as depositors move their funds to banks they deem to be safer in Germany. The article is here.  Most notable is how the various rates of money supply growth start to diverge around 2010.  For the pointer I thank Alexander…

  • Assorted links

    Tyler Cowen
    15 May 2012 | 1:09 pm
    1. Heath Gordon reviews An Economist Gets Lunch. 2. The daily Tate Watkins Haiti round-up, and will there be a gold boom in Haiti? 3. Narrative Science. 4. The economics of same sex marriage. 5. A radical idea: limit gadgets to one photograph per day.  And dogs yawn when people yawn.

  • The Rent is Too Damn High

    Tyler Cowen
    15 May 2012 | 10:46 am
    From London: On 30 April, the housing minister, Grant Shapps, announced that the government was creating a nationwide “beds in sheds” taskforce, to identify the thousands of sheds and outbuildings being illegally rented out, often to illegal migrants. He said it was “a scandal that these back-garden slums exist to exploit people, many of whom … find themselves trapped into paying extortionate rents to live in these cramped conditions”. The story closes with this: There are only two toilets, which she says, “is not at all enough”. She is looking…

  • The Myth of Chinese Meritocracy

    Alex Tabarrok
    15 May 2012 | 10:27 am
    No doubt you have heard how the leadership of China is meritocratic and composed of technocrats with PhDs. Minxin Pei suggests that there is less than meets the eye. …Contrary to the prevailing perception in the West (especially among business leaders), the current Chinese government is riddled with clever apparatchiks like Bo who have acquired their positions through cheating, corruption, patronage, and manipulation. One of the most obvious signs of systemic cheating is that many Chinese officials use fake or dubiously acquired academic credentials to burnish their resumes. Because…

  • How much structural unemployment was there during the Great Depression?

    Tyler Cowen
    14 May 2012 | 11:58 pm
    A few times recently Paul Krugman has raised the issue of structural unemployment in the Great Depression, so I thought I would offer a look at what has been written on the topic.  Here is Richard J. Jensen, from a survey article: Economists agree that Keynesian stimuli would not have helped structural or hard-core unemployment, only cyclical unemployment. As Table 1 suggests, about half of the unemployment was cyclical from 1931 through 1933; it was then that stimulus was needed and might have worked. By 1933, the appearance of a large, new, structural/hard-core element raised the natural…
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    Brad DeLong

  • Mann-Ornstein: "It's Even Worse than It Looks"

    J. Bradford DeLong
    18 May 2012 | 2:00 pm
    Jack Citrin writes: UC Berkeley | Institute of Governmental Studies: Special Session of the Research Workshop on American Politics: Please join us Friday, May 18 at noon in the IGS library (109 Moses Hall), for a special session of the Research Workshop on American Politics with authors Thomas Mann and Norm Ornstein. As always lunch will be served. Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institution, have observed Washington politics for more than 40 years — and they're acclaimed for their carefully nonpartisan…

  • Our Corrupt New Old Regime Aristocracy

    J. Bradford DeLong
    15 May 2012 | 12:22 pm
    Gary Younge: A web of privilege supports this so-called meritocracy: Shortly after Mitt Romney's failed 2008 campaign for the Republican nomination his son Tagg set up a private equity fund with the campaign's top fundraiser. One of the first donors was his mum, Anne. Next came several of his dad's financial backers. Tagg had no experience in the world of finance, but after two years in the middle of a deep recession the company had netted $244m from just 64 investors. Tagg insists that neither his name nor the fact that his father had made it clear he would run for the presidency again had…

  • Supply-Side Effects Are Small...

    J. Bradford DeLong
    15 May 2012 | 12:00 pm
    Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer: The Incentive Effects of Marginal Tax Rates: Evidence from the Interwar Era: This paper uses the interwar period in the United States as a laboratory for investigating the incentive effects of changes in marginal income tax rates. Marginal rates changed frequently and drastically in the 1920s and 1930s, and the changes varied greatly across income groups at the top of the income distribution. We examine the effect of these changes on taxable income using time-series/cross-section analysis of data on income and taxes by small slices of the income…

  • The Argument for Repealing Dodd-Frank Was...

    J. Bradford DeLong
    15 May 2012 | 11:36 am
    ... that Wall Street had learned its lesson that it had to have tight control over its derivatives books, and that it was possible for an investment bank to have tight control over its derivatives book: look at JPMC. Yes, let's look at JPMC.

  • The Real Problem with Electing a Former Head of Bain Capital as President Is...

    J. Bradford DeLong
    15 May 2012 | 11:31 am
    ....that his entire private-sector experience leads him to want to double down on the idea that getting more money to financiers and executives is job number one. For 30 years the ruling economic policies have been attempting to move more money to financiers and executives, and have done so with considerable success. Yet the faster economic growth that was supposed to follow these increases in income inequality are nowhere to be seen. Redoubling down on failed bets that we have already doubled down on would be a really not-smart thing to do.
 
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    Dani Rodrik's weblog

  • Ideas, interests, and a video

    Dani Rodrik
    26 Apr 2012 | 3:10 pm
    This has been a long-standing concern of mine: what are the respective roles of ideas iand interests in shaping policy outcomes? The most widely held theory of politics is also the simplest: the powerful get what they want. Financial regulation is driven by the interests of banks, health policy by the interests of insurance companies, and tax policy by the interests of the rich. Those who can influence government the most – through their control of resources, information, access, or sheer threat of violence – eventually get their way. It’s the same globally. Foreign policy is…

  • What Turkey’s political-military trials reveal about the country’s democracy

    Dani Rodrik
    24 Apr 2012 | 7:31 am
    To understand what is happening in Turkey’s murky world of judicial politics these days, it helps to imagine you are watching the closing scenes of a Hollywood courtroom drama. The movie’s protagonist stands accused of attempted murder. The prosecutor has produced a set of elaborate plans that the defendant allegedly drew up to poison an opponent. The plan was aborted, the prosecutor says, when a friend of the defendant got wind of the plot and alerted the intended target. The defendant proclaims his innocence and denies vehemently that he had made such plans. He says the materials on…

  • Erdoğan’s Dilemma

    Dani Rodrik
    25 Mar 2012 | 10:15 am
    Imagine you are the leader of a regional power, basking in the glow of global attention to your political and economic success.  You have managed to consolidate your power by outmaneuvering your opponents, most critically the military with its habit of pushing out governments not of its liking.  You are celebrated the world over as a flawed, but transformative and visionary leader of an emerging democracy.   Now imagine you are faced with the revelation that key parts of the judiciary on which you have relied to accomplish your political transformation are controlled by a…

  • A video of a talk on structural change and convergence

    Dani Rodrik
    16 Mar 2012 | 5:59 am
    Here is a video of my keynote address at Mt. Holyoke College: 2012 Global Conference Keynote Speaker Dani Rodrik from MHC MCGI on Vimeo.  

  • A Moscow show trial on the Bosphorus

    Dani Rodrik
    12 Mar 2012 | 5:15 pm
    [Note: This piece first appeared in Paul Krugman's blog.] In what is probably the country’s most important court case in at least five decades, hundreds of Turkish military officers are in jail and on trial for allegedly having plotted to overthrow the then newly-elected Justice and Development Party back in 2003.  The case also happens to be one of the most absurd ever prosecuted in an apparent democracy. The evidence against the defendants is such an obvious forgery that even a child would recognize it as such.  Imagine, if you can, something that is a cross between the…
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    bank-o-meter.com

  • Tuesday, May 15, 2012 - JPMorgan is Scary, the California Budget is Easy - by Sinclair Noe

    Sinclair Noe
    15 May 2012 | 6:32 pm
    05152012 ScriptDOW – 63 = 12,632SPX – 7 = 1330NAS – 8 = 289310 YR YLD =.01 = 1.78%OIL - .57 = 93.41GOLD – 12.20 = 1545.30SILV -.46 = 27.82PLAT – 5.00 = 1437.00So, JPMorgan shareholders held their annual meeting. They decided to pay Jamie Dimon $23 million. They can still afford it; despite a $2 billion dollar loss, JPMorgan is still the largest publicly traded company, the largest bank in the US, and the largest derivatives dealer in the world. JPMorgan invented credit default swaps, they wrote the legislation to reform the derivatives markets, and when JPMorgan went insolvent in…

  • Monday, May 14, 2012 - Problems in Greece, Euro, California, and JPMorgan - No Surprise

    Sinclair Noe
    14 May 2012 | 6:36 pm
    DOW – 125 = 12,695SPX – 15 = 1338NAS – 31 = 290210 YR YLD -.05 = 1.79%OIL - .70 = 94.08GOLD – 23.80 = 1557.50SILV - .71 = 28.28PLAT – 29.00 = 1442.00Back in early April I started telling you to heed the old market maxim: “Sell in May and Stay Away”. You are welcome. The Dow Industrial Average has now dropped 8 out of the last 9 sessions; no surprise. Of course, we had the weekend to think about the shenanigans of JPMorgan Chase; a too big to fail bank acting irresponsibly while simultaneously demanding less regulation; no surprise. Today's declines started in Europe; no…

  • Friday, May 11, 2012 - JPMorgan Moving On

    Sinclair Noe
    11 May 2012 | 7:04 pm
    DOW – 34 = 12,820SPX – 4 = 1353NAS +0.18 = 293310 YR YLD -.04 = 1.84%OIL – 1.51 = 95.57GOLD – 13.00 = 1581.40SILV - .15 = 28.99PLAT – 21.00 = 1471.00So, let's break down the problems at JP Morgan Chase. The bank lost net $800 million, on a $2 billion dollar trading loss in synthetic credit derivatives. They won't go broke today. JPM made $5.4 billion in profit in the first quarter. Still, a couple of billion dollars is significant, and it raises questions about the regulation of banks, the valuation and suitability of derivatives, the size of the world's largest firms and the…

  • Thursday, May 10, 2012 - JP Morgan Chase Goes Boom

    Sinclair Noe
    10 May 2012 | 6:59 pm
    DOW +19 = 12,855SPX + 3 = 1357 NAS – 1 = 293310 YR YLD + .05 = 1.88%OIL - .26 = 96.55GOLD + 4.00 = 1594.40SILV -.23 = 29.14PLAT – 13.00 = 1492.00So, it was a quiet day in the markets, not much going on; the Dow and the S&P managed to eke out modest gains, and this was welcome following 6 days of losses. Back in early April I told you to start getting out of the market, based in part, on the the idea of “Sell in May and stay away”. Sure, enough, May has been ugly, but not every day is ugly. There will be ups and downs. The past six days have been down; today the markets stopped…

  • Wednesday, May 9, 2012 - Greek Government, Spanish Banks, Gold Prices - It's All Messy

    Sinclair Noe
    9 May 2012 | 6:32 pm
    DOW – 97 = 12,835SPX – 9 = 1354NAS – 11 = 293410 YR YLD unch = 1.84%OIL - .56 = 96.45GOLD – 15.40 = 1590.40SILV - .20 = 29.37PLAT – 12.00 = 1505.00 The Greek tragedy continues;no success so far in negotiations to form a coalition government after weekend elections resulted in a deadlock.It looks like there might be another election in June. The Greeks accepted another $5 billion dollar bailout payment today, so they keep the government afloat for a few more weeks. Now, the chatter is shifting to the very real idea that Greece will exit the Euro, and trying to figure out the…
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    About.com US Economy

  • No Inflation Is Good Inflation

    15 May 2012 | 8:19 am
    On average, prices didn't rise at all in April. Of course, that statistic hides a 1.5% increase in the price of used cars and trucks, and modest (.2-.4%) price increase in food, health care and clothing. That's because these were offset by a welcome 2.6% drop in  gas prices, which had skyrocketed in February and March.   Despite this short-term drop, the economy is still experiencing a mild (and even healthy)  2.3% increase in inflation over the last year....Read Full Post

  • Why March Retail Sales Were Weaker Than Expected

    15 May 2012 | 7:44 am
    In April,  retail sales barely budged, rising just .1% over March's sales, to $408 billion. This was a 6.4% increase year-over-year, according to the most recent report from the Commerce Department. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was unfazed, even rising a bit. Why?...Read Full Post

  • U.S. Imports, Exports Hit New Records

    11 May 2012 | 12:31 pm
    First, the good news. U.S. exports hit an all-time high in March, with $186.8 billion in American-made goods and services sold overseas. Despite the eurozone debt crisis, exports to that area also reached a record-high. Now, the not-so-good news. U.S. imports also set a record, reaching $238.6 billion last month, driven in part by high oil and gas prices. These imports created a $67.6 billion U.S. trade deficit, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)'s most recent report. America's dependence on foreign oil creates trade deficits with many oil-exporting countries. To find out the…

  • Sorry, Mr. Romney -- 500,000 Jobs a Month Isn't Normal

    9 May 2012 | 7:47 am
    Last week's employment report prompted Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney to state that "We should be seeing numbers in the 500,000 jobs created per month. This is way, way, way off from what should happen in a normal recovery." There's no doubt that 500,000 jobs a month would be great, but is this really true? How many jobs are created in a normal recovery? What do the facts say?...Read Full Post

  • Credit Card, School Debt Up, Signaling Consumer Confidence

    7 May 2012 | 12:56 pm
    Americans use of debt jumped 10.2% in March, according to the Federal Reserve's G-19 Consumer Credit report. This was primarily driven by a record $460.2 billion in school loans, and a 7.8% increase in credit card debt. Both indicate confidence is returning, which is the basis for further economic growth. High education spending means that people are investing in the future. Credit card debt boosts personal consumption, which is responsible for 70% of economic output, or GDP....Read Full Post
 
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    Economix

  • When a Spending Cut Can Be Like a Tax Increase

    By CASEY B. MULLIGAN
    16 May 2012 | 5:00 am
    Spending cuts in programs that are means-tested can have a very similar effect to raising taxes, an economist writes, using Medicare proposals as an example.

  • How Older Workers Weather Layoffs

    By MOTOKO RICH
    15 May 2012 | 5:20 pm
    A Government Accountability Office report looks at the difficulties they face finding new jobs, and how their financial security in retirement may be compromised.

  • What Rule Should the Fed Follow?

    By BRUCE BARTLETT
    15 May 2012 | 5:00 am
    Conservatives seem determined to try to bar the Federal Reserve from exercising judgment on monetary policy, asserting that it should focus solely on preventing inflation, an economist writes.

  • Regrets About College

    By CATHERINE RAMPELL
    14 May 2012 | 5:11 pm
    While recent graduates regret many things, having gone to college generally isn't one of them, according to survey data from the Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers.

  • Define 'Welfare State,' Please

    By NANCY FOLBRE
    14 May 2012 | 5:00 am
    Data simply does not support the abstract notion that the "welfare state" is out of control in the United States, an economist writes.
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    iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

  • Africa and the Great Recession: Changing Times

    iMFdirect
    14 May 2012 | 5:13 am
    By Antoinette Sayeh In previous global downturns, sub-Saharan Africa has usually been badly affected—but not this time around. The world economy has experienced much dislocation since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. Output levels in many advanced economies still remain below pre-crisis levels, while unemployment levels have surged; growth in emerging market economies has slowed, but remains quite high. But in sub-Saharan Africa, growth for the region as a whole has remained reasonably strong (around 5 percent), except for 2009 – where the decline in world output and…

  • Making Sure Middle East Growth Is Inclusive

    iMFdirect
    10 May 2012 | 2:55 pm
    By Nemat Shafik (Version in عربي) The uprisings that spread across the Middle East and North Africa in 2011 taught us that even rapid economic growth cannot be maintained unless it is inclusive, creates enough jobs for the growing labor force, and is accompanied by policies that protect the most vulnerable. And the absence of transparent and fair rules of the game will inevitably undermine the development process. Hopes after the revolutions are high and so are people’s expectations. Hence, there is a need to pay more attention to socioeconomic issues in making policy decisions. In my…

  • Latin America: Vulnerabilities Under Construction?

    iMFdirect
    10 May 2012 | 8:32 am
    By Luis Cubeddu, Camilo E. Tovar, and Evridiki Tsounta (Version in Español) Housing construction projects are sprouting up across much of Latin America and mortgage credit is also growing very fast. Does this sound familiar? It should! Easy external financing conditions and high commodity prices have led to important improvements in living standards and credit deepening in many countries of the region over the past decade. The credit expansion has been particularly impressive in the mortgage sector, where legal reforms and government subsidies have also played a role. Although mortgage…

  • Fiscal Consolidation: Striking the Right Balance

    iMFdirect
    8 May 2012 | 7:20 am
    By David Lipton The debate on austerity vs. growth has gained in intensity, as countries in Europe and elsewhere struggle with low growth, high debt, and rising unemployment. In essence, policymakers are being asked to tackle a continuation of the worst crisis since the Great Depression. This would be no easy task under any circumstances. But it is made considerably harder by the fact that a number of countries need to engage in fiscal consolidation simultaneously. Complicating the picture further is the fact that monetary policy in most advanced economies is approaching the limits of what it…

  • How to Get the Balance Right: Fiscal Policy At a Time of Crisis

    iMFdirect
    6 May 2012 | 3:43 pm
    By Anders Borg and Christine Lagarde Last autumn was a turbulent time for Europe. The debt crisis deepened and financial markets became embroiled in turmoil, driven by fears of widespread restructuring of public debt. The crisis has harmed growth, increased unemployment, and left a large number of people less protected. We are now seeing some signs of stabilization. Most countries are reducing their deficits and even if debt ratios are still rising, the return back to fiscal health has begun. The International Monetary Fund and the Swedish Ministry of Finance are hosting an international…
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    Charter Cities - Blog

  • Adam Davidson on the Special Zone in Honduras

    Brandon Fuller
    9 May 2012 | 4:51 pm
    How could Honduras, the original banana republic, reform a political and economic system that kept nearly two-thirds of its people in grim poverty? NPR’s global economics correspondent, Adam Davidson, writes about charter cities and the Honduran Special Development Region in this week’s New York Times Magazine. As always, Adam’s column is well-worth reading in its entirety. The piece does raise a couple of questions about the special zone project in Honduras, which we address below. Q: Is the Honduran government putting land in the Special Development Region up for sale to foreigners?

  • Crowley: New Directions for Canadian Development Assistance

    Brandon Fuller
    6 May 2012 | 9:58 pm
    Canadian development assistance should reflect the central role that cities will play in the growth and development of less developed regions – places where Canada can not only help to improve governance in existing cities but also start new ones. That is the case that Brian Lee Crowley makes in a recent oped in the Ottawa Citizen. Simply moving a worker from a developing country to a developed one like Canada or the U.S. increases their earning power several times over. Moving from chaotic disorganized societies to ones with strong institutions such as functioning infrastructure,…

  • Jeremy Torobin on Charter Cities in The Globe and Mail

    Brandon Fuller
    26 Apr 2012 | 6:26 pm
    Jeremy Torobin, economics correspondent for The Globe and Mail, has a column on the charter cities concept and the effort in Honduras to build a new city in an independent reform zone. Here’s an excerpt: And there is a strong argument in the ‘enlightened self-interest’ category, aside from Prof. Romer’s projections about the impact on global output, or the potential windfall for the Canadian companies that might build some of the infrastructure for the new cities or, eventually, have billions more overseas customers who can afford to buy their products. Namely, Canada and all advanced…

  • Charter Cities, Honduran REDs, and Canada

    Brandon Fuller
    25 Apr 2012 | 2:13 pm
    Paul Romer and Octavio Sanchez, chief of staff to the President of Honduras, have an oped in this morning’s Globe & Mail. They describe Honduran efforts to establish a new reform zone and the ways in which Canada can participate. With the near unanimous support of its Congress, Honduras recently defined a new legal entity: la Región Especial de Desarrollo. A RED is an independent reform zone intended to offer jobs and safety to families who lack a good alternative; officials in the RED will be able to partner with foreign governments in critical areas such as policing, jurisprudence…

  • Coverage from China Daily: Charter cities in the works

    Brandon Fuller
    12 Mar 2012 | 10:11 am
    Emma An interviewed Paul about charter cities during his recent visit to the Fung Global Institute in Hong Kong. Romer suggests that a developing country should set aside a plot of land large enough to accommodate a city of millions, give the new entity flexibility to govern itself as China has done in Hong Kong, including allowing it to pass its own constitutional-like charter like the Basic Law of Hong Kong. The new city would be administered by a third-party “guarantor” country to ensure that the new rules are respected by all parties, reminiscent of what Britain did in Hong Kong…
 
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    The Principled Achiever

  • Making GRC Personal

    Clark Abrahams
    9 May 2012 | 4:33 pm
    Users of software vary in job responsibilities and also in focus.  In the parlance of software developers, users are commonly categorized as representing a particular persona, based on their business role in an organization.  In the case of enterprise GRC solutions, some examples of common persona include risk managers, compliance [...]

  • GRC solution can speed the achievement of objectives through collaboration

    Clark Abrahams
    8 May 2012 | 4:42 pm
            Today marks the announcement of the latest release of the SAS® Enterprise GRC solution at the SAS-sponsored Premier Business Leadership Series.  The main focus of GRC, short for governance, risk and compliance, is best articulated by the Open Compliance and Ethics Group as:  The reliable achievement of [...]

  • High-performance analytics is opening new frontiers

    Clark Abrahams
    2 Apr 2012 | 5:13 pm
    Last week I traveled to Orlando to attend the 20th High-Performance Computing Symposia (HPC), part of the SCS Spring Simulation Multi-conference (SpringSim'12) in cooperation with ACM/SIGSIM.  This HPC track was organized by General Chair Dr. Gary Howell, NC State University and Program Chair Dr. Steven Seidel, Michigan Technological University.  It [...]

  • Global perspectives on risk from some good minds

    Clark Abrahams
    18 Jan 2012 | 4:01 pm
    There were many different perspectives and ideas shared at the recent Ri$kMinds event. There were numerous notable quotes from regulatory and banking executives, such as:  Concerning financial innovation: "We need a more formal process to distinguish healthy innovation versus arbitrage" -- Jose Maria Roldan, Banco De Espana Concerning safety & [...]

  • Quality information for the Board

    Clark Abrahams
    14 Oct 2011 | 4:15 pm
    Boards of Directors certainly do care about the quality of the information they receive from the business.  They must have confidence that comes from knowing that the information managers provide to them has been sourced and delivered through a reliable, validated, and easily traceable process.  Accuracy of the information is [...]
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    EconomicPolicyJournal.com

  • The Squeeze on JPMorgan's Whale Trade Begins

    15 May 2012 | 10:16 pm
    The squeeze on JPMorgan is in play.  The CDX IG 9 short that JPMorgan's London whale, Bruno Iksil, has to unwind is climbing in price. NYT reports that as of Monday, 10-year protection sold on a certain amount of the index through 2017 cost about $147,000, up from roughly $119,000 two weeks ago, according to the data provider Markit, an increase of 24%. Ouch! That's how you beach a whale.

  • Secret Left Wing Summit in Miami

    15 May 2012 | 3:01 pm
    A secretive network of left-wing billionaires and their political operatives descended on the luxurious Biltmore Hotel in Miami over the weekend to discuss strategy for the coming elections, reports the Washington Free Beacon. Reports the Beacon: The conference was attended by the biggest names in liberal politics, including billionaire financier George Soros... Andy Stern, the former

  • Hot: GM Stopping Ads on Facebook...

    15 May 2012 | 2:23 pm
    ... because they are not effective. Say what? GM makes this announcement just a couple of days before Facebook goes public. Writes a friend:  This has to be planned.  Are the Winklevoss twins major shareholders in GM?

  • Greek Civil Disobedience Against Tax Collection Method Succeeds

    15 May 2012 | 2:09 pm
    A scheme to get Greeks to pay property taxes by bundling them with electricity bills didn’t last long, reports FT. People stopped paying their electricity bills and now it looks like the power company – which had to be bailed out last month – has stopped even trying to collect the levy. According to FT, the government had hoped to raise €1.7bn-€2bn from the levy in the fourth quarter of last

  • Hints of a Greek Run on Banks

    15 May 2012 | 1:13 pm
    Greek depositors withdrew EUR700 million from local banks on Monday, the country's president said, and warned that the situation facing Greece's lenders was very difficult, reports WSJ. Citing a conversation he had with Greek Central Bank Governor George Provopoulos, Greek President Karolos Papoulias said "that the strength of banks is very weak right now."
 
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    Visualizing Economics

  • Comparing Income & 10-year Job Growth for All Occupations

    Catherine Mulbrandon
    10 May 2012 | 3:39 pm
    Here is a sneak peek at my An Illustrated Guide to Income in the United States. These are a set of data graphics looking at the average income and change in number of jobs over the last ten years for 800+ occupation by industry and by education. Be sure to sign up to be notified when the Income Guide is done. Data from EMSI Get notified when "An Illustrated Guide to Income" is ready! Learn more... Feed enhanced by Better Feed from Ozh

  • Comparing Income, Corporate, Capital Gains Tax Rates: 1916-2011

    Catherine Mulbrandon
    23 Jan 2012 | 6:48 pm
    Due to popular demand, I have updated my 2010 graph on top marginal tax rates. In addition, during this year’s tax season, I will be selling copies of my Top Marginal Tax Rates graph as a tabloid size 11″x17″ poster.   FYI, your marginal tax rate is the rate you pay on the “last dollar” you earn; but when you view the taxes you paid as a percentage of your income, your effective tax rate is less than your marginal rate, especially after you take into account the deductions and exemptions, i.e. income that is not subject to any tax. Tax Data: Married…

  • The Great Divergence In Pictures: A visual guide to income inequality. [Slate]

    Catherine Mulbrandon
    12 Jan 2012 | 3:26 pm
    First published in Slate to accompany an article written by Tim Noah, I created these graphs about income inequality covering the changes in income inequality as well as looking at changes in race, gender, education, taxes and political party in the White House. Get notified when "An Illustrated Guide to Income" is ready! Learn more... Feed enhanced by Better Feed from Ozh

  • Job Growth: Which states are more competitive?

    Catherine Mulbrandon
    9 Dec 2011 | 12:29 pm
    I worked with Economic Modeling Specialists on a data graphic that looks to distinguish between growth from large national forces vs. local competitive advantages within a state. Learn more about the data and analysis at the EMSI Blog.       Get notified when "An Illustrated Guide to Income" is ready! Learn more... Feed enhanced by Better Feed from Ozh

  • The Top 0.01% and Top 1%’s Income Share: 2008

    Catherine Mulbrandon
    24 Oct 2011 | 10:00 pm
    This one of the graphics that I presented recently at The Big Picture conference here in New York City. It is from a project I am currently working on called An Illustrated Guide to Income in the United States: a collection of infographics, maps and charts looking at the different incomes and occupations in the United States. Recently the conversation in the news has been about the top 1%, however, in this graphic I show the breakdown of personal income by different percentiles, including the top 0.01% (i.e. income above $9 million). I have used 10,000 “people” to…
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    Broad Oak Blog

  • UK money supply growth hits historic low

    7 May 2012 | 3:10 pm
    Issued 2 May, the latest Bank of England quarterly M4 figures plumb new depths - remember, M4 had NEVER been negative from 1963 on, until the credit crunch in 2009. INVESTMENT DISCLOSURE: None. Still in cash (and index-linked National Savings Certificates), and missing all those day-trading opportunities. DISCLAIMER: Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content.

  • Silver as a protection against the powerful

    7 May 2012 | 12:37 pm
    Some days ago, the King World News blog posted an interview with the octogenarian Mexican billionaire, Hugo Salinas Price. He says "full-blown socialism" is on its way. Some might read the results of the recent French and Greek elections in that context.There comes a time in a successful old man's life when he starts to ride a hobby-horse, whether it be philanthropy or politics. Sir James Goldsmith, dying of cancer, spent his last energies urging a British referendum on membership of the EU, having previously and presciently warned (in 1994) of the social instability inherent in the GATT…

  • How will we stay rich?

    22 Apr 2012 | 11:19 am
    Not many of us feel rich, but that's partly to do with who we have around us. Compared to most of the world, we are hugely well-off.Let's make the comparison a little fairer. What matters is not only how much money we have, but what we can buy with it locally: this is known as "purchasing power parity" (PPP). So, here is a graph of the GDP per person (in PPP terms) of the most populous nations on Earth; I also include bars for the European Union and the world average (click to enlarge):The vertical axis is in multiples of world average GDP: 11,800 US dollars. You see that the USA is…

  • Spanish credit now 10th worst globally; UK and USA recovering?

    17 Apr 2012 | 1:04 pm
    According to CMA Datavision's Q1 report on the sovereign credit insurance market, out today, Spain has just entered the top 10 most risky countries, with a 32% chance of default within five years. Far worse is Portugal, with a 60% 5-year default risk (beaten only by Cyprus, which is a new inclusion in CMA's tables).More surprising is the market's favourable assessment of the USA, which has recovered its insurance-implied AAA rating, and the UK, now listed as the 6th least risky country. It would seem that the credit insurance traders have bought the good news stories, in the face of…

  • Urgent need for UK consumers to review pensions and investments

    16 Apr 2012 | 10:43 am
    Changes on their way mean that it's high time to review your insurance - and pensions.Gender-neutrality law to increase costs for both men and womenBy 21st December this year, the UK insurance industry will have to comply with the EU Gender Directive, which insists that men and women must be treated the same when setting rates. Up to now, by and large:women tend to pay less for car insurance (typically, safer driver behaviour than men's) and life insurance (on average, women live longer than men)men tend to get better annuity rates when taking benefits from their pensions, and pay less for…
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    Carl Futia

  • Guesstimates on May 15, 2012

    15 May 2012 | 8:04 am
    June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1332-1347. I think the ES is headed for 1320-30 where I expect the drop from 1419.75 to end. QQQ:  Downside target is 62.50.          TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield is back to the low of its recent multi-month trading range. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to  3.00%.  Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600. Dollar-Yen: The yen has decisively broken below support at 81.00. This…

  • Guesstimates on May 14, 2012

    14 May 2012 | 8:05 am
    June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1327-1342. I think the ES is headed for 1320-30 where I expect the drop from 1419.75 to end. QQQ:  Downside target is 62.50.          TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield is back to the low of its recent multi-month trading range. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to  3.00%.  Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed for 1.2600. Dollar-Yen: The yen has decisively broken below support at 81.00. This…

  • Guesstimates on May 11, 2012

    11 May 2012 | 8:06 am
    June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1335-1350. The J.P.Morgan news after yesterday's close has produced a trading range lower than yesterday's day session. I think this means that the ES is headed for 1320-30. QQQ:  Downside target is 62.50.          TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent multi-month trading range. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to  3.00%.  Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has rejected the 1.3300 resistance level. The market is headed…

  • Guesstimates on May 10, 2012

    10 May 2012 | 8:05 am
    June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1357-1370. It now looks like yesterday morning's drop below the Sunday night low at 1342.50 was a shakeout. I think the ES is headed for 1370 today and I also think the odds favor a breakout above that level tomorrow and next week. If that happens I will abandon my 1320-1330 target range and conclude that yesterday's low at 1339.25 ended the drop from 1419.75. QQQ:  Downside target is 62.50.          TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield has drifted back into its recent…

  • Attention Traders

    9 May 2012 | 11:04 am
    Are you a day trader or a swing trader or both? Since my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime started in September of 2010 the blog's day trading account is up 83.0% based on one contract trades in the e-mini S&P futures in a $10,000 account.Want to find out how I calculate my range estimates every day? Would you like to learn the rules I use to identify the market's trend and estimate support and resistance levels? How about the chance to read my ongoing series of posts on the technique of swing trading? You can do all this plus watch my real time trades for less than $25 per month! Check…
 
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    CARPE DIEM

  • April Real Estate Blowout: Recovery Is Underway

    15 May 2012 | 9:50 pm
    Houston is now the 31st metro or state real estate market reporting double-digit gains in April (see full list here):"April marked the eleventh straight month of growth in Houston home sales. Total sales and sales of single-family units registered increases of nearly 10% each over April of 2011. The average price of a single-family home rose by 11% year-over-year to $223,000. Rising demand pushed down the inventory of single-family homes by 27% compared to a year earlier. The Houston Association of Realtors expects tighter inventory will continue to push prices upward and spur new home…

  • Map of the Day: 87% of U.S. Federal Offshore Acreage is Off Limits to Oil and Gas Development

    15 May 2012 | 8:39 pm
    The map above is from the American Petroleum Institute's "2012 Energy in Charts: Energy Industry Statistics," with the following commentary: "Additional access to offshore areas currently off limits remains a key missing component of U.S. energy policy, and would provide substantial additional gains to the nation in terms of energy security, employment and government revenue."

  • The Housing Market Recovery Has Officially Begun

    15 May 2012 | 2:40 pm
    That's how Time Magazine is describing the conclusions from a new report issued today by the Conference Board and Nielsen through their jointly-owned Demand Institute. Here are some excerpts form the report titled "The Shifting Nature of U.S. Housing Demand":"The worst is over for the U.S. housing market. After six years of declining sales and falling prices that wiped $7 trillion from the value of housing assets, a turning point has been reached. The Demand Institute sees average prices rising by up to 1 percent in the second half of 2012 (in seasonally adjusted terms), marking the start of…

  • More Positive Real Estate News

    15 May 2012 | 1:54 pm
    Here's some more positive news coming out today about the recovering U.S. real estate market, which might have reached a major turning point in the month of April.  1. California Spring Home Buying Season Off to Strong Start, Home Sales and Price Post Impressive April Results  --  "California home sales and median price both jumped in April, with sales shooting up to their highest level in more than two years, and the median price rising above $300,000 for the first time in 16 months.  "A brighter economic picture, coupled with record-high housing affordability, pushed the…

  • Markets in Everything, Prohibition Era: Cow Shoes

    15 May 2012 | 10:22 am
    From a newspaper article in 1922 titled "[Moon]Shiners Wear 'Cow Shoes'": "A new method of evading prohibition agents was revealed here today by A.L. Allen, state prohibition enforcement director, who displayed what he called a "cow shoe" as the latest thing front the haunts of moonshiners.The cow shoe is a strip of metal to which is tacked a wooden block carved to resemble the hoof of a cow, which may be strapped to the human foot. A man shod with a pair of them would leave a trail resembling that of a cow.The shoe found was picked up near Port Tampa where a still was located some time ago.
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    True Economics

  • 14/5/2012: Irish Construction Sector PMIs for April 2012

    14 May 2012 | 4:57 am
    The Irish Construction PMI published by the Ulster Bank posted another massive fall, declining to 45.4 in April, from 46.7 in March. This is the sharpest rate of decline in the sector since October 2011. Breakdown by sub-sector:Which means thatHousing sector activity is now sharper than overall activity, for the first time in seven months and is sharpest since September 2011Commercial sector activity is on shallower decrease path in April than in March, but nonetheless, there is no improvement, despite the claims by our development agencies and reports by some real estate houses that…

  • 14/5/2012: Russian Banks Credit Supply to SMEs

    14 May 2012 | 3:59 am
    Moody's latest note on Russian banks, titled SME Lending in Russia: Growth Supports Profitability, but Cyclical Credit Risks Remain is available in Russian.The note argues that since 2010-2011, Russian banks' origination of credit to SMEs has grown on the back of banks' strategic expansion within the SME sector that sees growth in lending to SMEs exceeding that for larger corporates."Overall, we believe that the banks' expansion of their SME portfolios and their plans to further this expansion are credit positive. The SME sector supports the banks' net interest margins, provides…

  • 14/5/2012: De List of Mr Enda

    14 May 2012 | 1:56 am
    In the world of totally planted and utterly absurd stories, this one takes at least an honorable mention prize. Now, just think - a secret meeting in the back of the pub. A 'source' - a 'Government source' - confiding to the author about the 'list' of 'special projects' to milk the EU subsidies into the sunset. You have to laugh... or cry... 

  • 14/5/2012: Euro area austerity - a chart

    14 May 2012 | 1:20 am
    Austerity in Europe? Ok, table below shows General Government expenditure as % of nominal GDP in 2011-2012 compared to 2000-2007 average.Chart below shows nominal values of General Government expenditure, in billions of euros.Chart above clearly shows that during the entire crisis, euro area General Government Expenditure dipped  only once - in 2011 compared to 2010. The 'savage' cut was €13.02bn for EA12 combined, or 0.14% of 2011 GDP. Continuing with 'savage austerity', 2012 is forecast by the IMF to post General Government Expenditure increase of €43 billion for EA12 and €43.9…

  • 15/5/2012: Austerity, Stimulus & Euro Area Crisis

    14 May 2012 | 12:24 am
    An excellent article for Bloomberg by Peter Boone and Simon Johnson, titled As European Austerity Ends, So Could the Euro.Note the referencing of 90% debt/GDP ratio for the euro area. In 2012, per IMF more detailed WEO database, General Government Gross Debt in EA17 will rise to 89.95% of GDP from 88.08% in 2011. For EA12 (old euro area member states), the GGD will rise from 88.75% of GDP in 2011 to 90.61% of GDP in 2012, while removing Luxembourg out of EA12 (the country is a massive outlier for virtually all GDP-related parameters due to its huge 'brass plate' sector), implies…
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    Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

  • Index of Stress: May 2012

    14 May 2012 | 9:17 am
    The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis recently began publishing a new weekly index that seeks to track the general level of financial stress.As periods of financial stress come and go a whole host of fundamental economic indicators immediately adjust to meet the near and long term expectations of market participantsInterest rates, yields spreads, popular market volatility indices all move in real time giving observers unequivocal evidence of changes general sentiment.The St. Louis Fed has devised a method of crunching eighteen of these sensitive indices down into one convenient index it calls…

  • On The Stamp: Food Stamp Participation February 2012

    9 May 2012 | 8:46 am
    As a logical consequence of the prolonged economic downturn it appears that participation in the federal food stamp program is continuing to rise.In fact, household participation has been climbing so steadily that it has far surpassed the last peak (which looks like a minor blip by comparison) set as a result of the immediate fallout following hurricane Katrina.The latest data released by the Department of Agriculture shows that in February, 123,385 recipients were removed from the food stamps program with the current total still increasing 4.81% on a year-over-year basis while household…

  • Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – May 09 2012

    9 May 2012 | 8:33 am
    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications. The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases. The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate…

  • Radar Watching: March 2012

    8 May 2012 | 9:48 am
    As I have noted in the past, since the home price index data provided by Radar Logic is more timely, unadjusted and un-smoothed it is particularly useful for gaining deeper visibility over our housing markets. As for the latest trends, it’s important to note that the 25-MSA Composite is showing significant year-over-year declines while prices continue to bounce from the lows set in late-January.The latest data shows that as of early-March, prices have declined 2.71% below the level seen in March 2011 continuing the pattern of past years with prices now heading higher as the data moves into…

  • Hong Kong Bubble?: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices February 2012

    7 May 2012 | 11:05 am
    Today, the University of Hong Kong released their Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Series (HKU-REIS) indicating that, in February, the price of residential properties increased a notable 2.05% since January and climbed 5.96% above the level seen in February 2011. It appears that after a notable pullback in late-2011 prices are beginning to show some improvement with all measures rising on the month.The HKU-REIS is a set of property price indices constructed monthly using a “modified” repeat-sale methodology similar to that of the S&P/Case-Shiller indices yet suited to the Hong Kong…
 
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    The Economic Populist

  • CPI 0% for April 2012 on Dropping Gas Prices

    Robert Oak
    15 May 2012 | 7:20 pm
    The April Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation, had no increase or decrease from March. The reason was gasoline prices, which declined -2.6% from last month Below is the graph for CPI's monthly percentage change.     Energy overall decreased -1.7%. The energy index separates out all energy costs and puts them together. Energy is also mixed in with other indexes, such as heating oil for the housing index and gas for the transportation index. The energy index is up 0.9% for the last 12 months. Gas alone decreased -2.6% for April, but is up 3.2% from this time last year. Fuel…

  • Retail Sales Increase 0.1% for April 2012

    Robert Oak
    15 May 2012 | 2:07 pm
    April 2012 Retail Sales increased 0.1%. Minus autos & parts, retail sales also increased 0.1%. March retail sales were revised down from 0.8% to 0.7%. Retail sales are up 6.4% from the same time last year. Retail sales are reported by dollars, not by volume, so dropping prices often reports as a decline in sales.     For the quarter, January to March, retail sales increased 6.6% from the February to April time period one year ago. Nonstore retail sales, which includes online shopping are up 11% from a year ago. Total retail sales are $408 billion for April. Below is the monthly…

  • Your Feet's Too Big!

    Numerian
    15 May 2012 | 11:14 am
    Your pedal extremities are colossal  To me you look just like a fossil. – Fats Waller   Business executives like to talk about their “footprint”. When JP Morgan Chase and Bank of America were racing all around the United States to see which could be the first to have a full national presence in every important market, they would talk about how their footprint was expanding state by state. Then it was on to establish a full global footprint, including in all key emerging markets, which supposedly are going to provide double-digit earnings growth for these banks during the…

  • The Trade Agreement You Never Heard About - TPP

    Robert Oak
    14 May 2012 | 5:24 am
    Did you know, beyond closed doors, there is a massive trade agreement being crafted? It's called TPP or Trans Pacific Partnership and this one makes NAFTA look like the stepping stone that it is. This is one bad mother. This is a trade agreement between Chile, Australia, Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam and the United States. Japan as well as China may also join. The countries involved isn't the problem. What's being negotiated is. For those who think they won the SOPA/PIPA battle, think again. The below video clip does a good job explaining how SOPA/PIPA are…

  • Saturday Reads Around the Internets - Romney is Bush Redux

    Robert Oak
    12 May 2012 | 9:58 pm
    Welcome to the weekly roundup of great articles, facts and figures. These are the weekly finds that made our eyes pop.   Romney's Economic Policies Would Be Bush Redux Bloomberg did an in depth report on Romney's economic advisers and policy positions. Surprise, he's back....like poltergeist, it's Gregory Mankiw, Bush's economic adviser. Among the financial and business experts advising Romney’s campaign are Columbia University’s R. Glenn Hubbard and Harvard University’s N. Gregory Mankiw, both economists who headed the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush.
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    Stock Trading To Go

  • Market Recap - Fresh Looks and Strength in Amazon (AMZN)

    Blain
    15 May 2012 | 4:12 pm
    Europe was once again in focus today, Greece specifically, dragging down the market late afternoon. The theme here at STTG the last month has been all about raising cash and maintaining a cautious outlook. This mindset will remain until Europe can either band-aid itself for another 6+ months or the US gets more stimulus. As far as looking forward, maintaining a list of stocks holding up despite the market weakness is very important as these could easily be leaders should the market turn around. Tonight I have included a chart of Amazon (AMZN) from my MarketSmith account which is one stock on…

  • Market Recap - Market Slips to Key Support, Gold Update

    Blain
    14 May 2012 | 10:36 pm
    The rest of the world is once again in focus and causing a ripple effect here in the US markets. From today's Reuters market recap, "Stocks fell on Monday as investors dealt with the one-two punch of worsening political upheaval in the euro zone and the possibility that China's economy may be softening more than previously thought." Cash remains king. Original post: Market Recap - Market Slips to Key Support, Gold Update

  • Market Recap - Boring Session

    Blain
    10 May 2012 | 4:17 pm
    A fairly uneventful session today. Volume was way above average again but price action was all over the place and there was not much interesting news besides Cisco (CSCO) missing earnings and slumping -10.5%. The market can't decide what to do next so the, "wait for the next headline then react" type game continues on. With that said, there isn't anything else to share. I know, boring right? Good news is however that tomorrow is Friday. As usual there will be no recap tomorrow so have a great Friday and a fantastic weekend! Original post: Market Recap - Boring Session

  • Market Recap & 19,000 Subscriber Mark Reached

    Blain
    9 May 2012 | 4:34 pm
    Today the blog passed the 19,000 RSS Subscriber mark, only 988 more to go before 20k. For those not yet subscribed for free updates, go here for a list of options. Thanks for reading and supporting the site! Mark from Market Montage explains the current environment best (emphasis mine), We did indeed see the morning gap down get filled, so much like yesterday it's been an impressive turnaround. That said, yesterday's turnaround led to nothing but a gap down. So the market remains in the "vicious" category and that won't change even with a 2-3% rally from here. It is a headline driven macro…

  • Market Recap, Europe Bullying Stocks and Disney Preps for Record Highs

    Blain
    8 May 2012 | 5:57 pm
    After shaking off Europe's weekend drama yesterday, one couldn't help but think "no big deal". However, today Europe was once again a big deal and fresh fears (alongside Europe's major indices selling off) caused the US market to gap down at the opening bell and run heavily to the downside. Almost like clockwork though, once the European markets closed, the US markets put in a bottom and started moving higher. Really it was beautifully clean intraday action as we can see below with this almost picture perfect cup & handle setup + breakout (chart from my thinkorswim platform), With the…
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    WILLisms.com

  • Texas Job Domination: 2002-2012.

    Will Franklin
    4 May 2012 | 11:37 am
    Trivia Tidbit of the Day: Part 956 -- Jobs- Today's disappointing BLS job figures continued to mask the real employment situation in the country. While the official numbers showed 115,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate at 8.1%, Jim Pethokoukis notes that the unemployment rate would be 11.1% if United States labor force had remained the same size as when Obama took office. But not all states are created equal. Texas, over the past decade, has outpaced the nation in both total jobs and private sector jobs. All jobs, including government jobs: click image for larger version Texas added 1.32…

  • Governor Rick Perry's Game-Changing Texas Budget Compact.

    Will Franklin
    19 Apr 2012 | 9:24 am
    Across the nation, state governments are facing tough choices. Barack Obama's unnecessarily prolonged economic downturn has caused anticipated state budget revenues-- projected in good times-- to vanish. Adding to the misery: most states spent one-time stimulus dollars on recurring expenses in 2009, creating new baselines of spending far above where they would have been without such fleeting federal, ahem, benevolence. Meanwhile, old and new federal mandates have piled on expenses that states must now cover on their own. See Medicaid for a great example of a vast federal program gone haywire…

  • The Sorry State of Education in America

    Will Franklin
    19 Mar 2012 | 2:43 pm
    Trivia Tidbit of the Day: Part 955 -- Education- A fascinatingly scary and depressing set of stats on American education: Via: OnlineEducation.net We need more Bobby Jindals in this country, meaningfully shaking things up. Previous Trivia Tidbit: Texas driving America's exports. Tweet

  • Texas: Driving America's Export Train.

    Will Franklin
    5 Mar 2012 | 4:52 pm
    Trivia Tidbit of the Day: Part 954 -- Texas Boosting America's Exports- In January of 2010, during his State of the Union address, Barack Obama famously committed America to doubling exports by 2015. It's an ambitious goal at first blush, but when you consider that he made the promise at the $143.6 billion per month level (not long after the trough of the most recent recession) doubling from that depressed point was not such a long shot. Just returning to pre-recession export levels ($165.9 billion per month) got us 15% of the way there. At present, we're about 25% of the way toward doubling…

  • GUEST POST: "For the Health of Consumers and our Legal System It’s Time to Take Smart Action Against Double Dipping"

    Will Franklin
    2 Mar 2012 | 2:25 pm
    From time to time, I post original submissions from guest bloggers on a variety of topics I care about. Even with sweeping tort reform in Texas in recent years, many of our small businesses remain at the mercy of liberal trial lawyer jackpot justice schemes. The following is an original guest post from fellow Texan Chip Hough, a board member of Citizens Against Lawsuit of Abuse of Central Texas: Not so long ago, the Texas court system was drowning in asbestos personal injury lawsuits, seriously threatening access to our courts, harming our business climate and posing a real obstacle for those…
 
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    Political Calculations

  • Enabling Disability Fraud

    16 May 2012 | 5:39 am
    We were inspired by Climateer Investing's summary of the econoblogosphere's ongoing analysis of the increasing level of disability fraud in the U.S., where hundreds of thousands of people would appear to be ending up after their extended unemployment insurance benefits expire, to ask two new questions: which Americans are benefiting from the fraud and how are they getting away with it? To answer the first question, we started with the annual age distribution data that the Social Security Administration publishes on the number and age of that agency's disability benefit recipients. Starting…

  • The Ultimate Sell Signal

    15 May 2012 | 6:03 am
    Just for fun, we've adapted one of our analytical methods for forecasting stock prices and applied it to the stock market of the Roaring Twenties, which really ran from October 1925 up through September 1929: Keeping with our yesteryear analysis by taking only what someone in the 1920s might have known about our statistical control chart-inspired analytical methods into account (statistical control charts were invented by Walter Shewhart in the 1920s, it would still be years before Western Electric's rules for detecting breaks in trends would be well developed), the value of the S&P 500, or…

  • Kremlinology, Political Calculations and the S&P 500

    14 May 2012 | 6:11 am
    Back in the days of the Soviet Union, there was a whole field within political science known as "Kremlinology", where people outside the ruling circle within the Kremlin would attempt to divine what was really going on in that nation from what little information the country's bosses made public in the media they controlled. It occurs to us that since we've stopped publicly forecasting where the S&P 500 will go next that many of our readers may be in the same boat. Especially since our last post on the topic, where we posted the following chart and offered this cryptic observation: An…

  • An Invention for the True Wine Connoisseur

    11 May 2012 | 6:38 am
    Haven't you ever wished, while you were drinking wine, that there was some way you might be able to improve its aroma and taste right out of the bottle? Without having to use those aerator attachments that are designed to serve that purpose? If so, then perhaps the just recently patented Drink Swinging Apparatus might be right up your alley! Here is inventor Min Zhuang's own description of the problem he seeks to solve with his U.S. patent 8,132,960, which was issued on 13 March 2012: Some people like drinking, especially in a festival. Drinking will enhance festive atmosphere. In addition,…

  • Are Baby Boomers Stealing Jobs from the Young? (Part 3)

    10 May 2012 | 6:26 am
    What's the real story with the changing age distribution of working Americans over the previous five years? We've previously shown that large declines in the working population of the U.S. has taken place across all age groups, but how much of that might be considered to be normal, such as in the case of retirement, and how much might due to other factors? Which age groups have been hurt the most during the Great Recession, and are there any that have made out the best? To find out, we need to go back to the Employment to Population ratio that Jed Graham used to make his original point, only…
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    Calafia Beach Pundit

  • Some additional perspective on Europe

    15 May 2012 | 10:18 pm
    These charts provide some interesting perspective on the Eurozone economies. The top chart compares industrial production in the U.S. to industrial production in the Eurozone economies in aggregate. Note how there has been a significant gap that has opened up since last August, and note also how closely production in the two major economic areas had tracked up until that time. But as the second chart makes clear, the sluggish performance of Eurozone industrial production since August is mainly driven by the same countries that are facing rising default risk. Germany is doing quite well, and…

  • Retail sales continue to be strong

    15 May 2012 | 12:27 pm
    For the third time in the past two years, the world is obsessed with the idea that a breakup of the Euro is going to bring down the global economy. The chart above uses the ratio of the Vix index (which rises as fear increases) to the 10-yr Treasury yield (which falls as the world despairs over the prospects of economic growth) to gauge the amount of destruction that the market is worried about. It was worse in the prior two episodes, but it's pretty bad right now, as market chatter essentially assumes the imminent exit of Greece from the Eurozone, followed by a significant devaluation of the…

  • Federal budget outlook continues to improve

    10 May 2012 | 2:19 pm
    Thanks to April's stronger-than-expected gains in federal tax revenues and weaker-than-expected growth in federal spending, the 12-month federal deficit has shrunk to $1.15 trillion, down significantly from its high of $1.48 trillion in early 2010. By my estimates, the federal budget deficit now has dropped from a high of 10.4% of GDP to 7.4%. This is very good news that I imagine most people are completely unaware of, and it's come about in the best possible way: government is slowly shrinking relative to the economy, and this is allowing the private sector to grow, with the result that tax…

  • Trade update: continued growth a positive

    10 May 2012 | 11:43 am
    Imports rose more than exports in March, causing the trade deficit to increase, but that is not necessarily a sign of weakness. The more important thing is that both imports and exports continue to increase at a healthy rate, since that means the U.S. economy is growing and dynamic, and the rest of the world is also growing and dynamic.This chart focuses on goods exports over a shorter time frame, and here we see how export growth has picked up in recent months after a period of sluggish growth in the latter half of last year. This is especially encouraging, since it suggests that the…

  • Claims back on track

    10 May 2012 | 10:05 am
    Weekly claims for unemployment came in as expected, and as this chart shows, the seasonally adjusted level of claims and the 52-week moving average both still appear to be trending down. On an unadjusted basis, claims last week were almost 15% below the level of a year ago, which is actually quite impressive. Taken together, these numbers confirm that the downtrend in this series is still intact, and the upward surprise of a few weeks ago was the result of faulty seasonal adjustment factors.It is also impressive that the total number of people receiving unemployment insurance has…
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    Donald Marron

  • Energy Security, the Infographic

    Donald Marron
    10 May 2012 | 11:59 pm
    The Congressional Budget Office is out with another fine infographic, this time on energy security. The entire infographic is too big to post here, but here’s how Andrew Stocking and Maureen Costantino portray America’s energy sources and uses: One of the most notable features is the absence of any link from natural gas to transportation (some natural gas is used in transportation, of course, but not enough to make the cut for this image). Given the ever-growing divergence between oil and natural gas prices, I wonder whether that will still be true a decade from now? Or will…

  • The Fight over Medicare Double Counting

    Donald Marron
    9 May 2012 | 4:45 am
    The recent double-counting dispute isn’t just about politics; it also reveals a flaw in budgeting for Medicare Part A. Budget experts are waging a spirited battle over the Medicare changes that helped pay for 2010’s health reform. In April, Chuck Blahous, one of two public trustees of the program, released a study arguing that the Affordable Care Act (ACA) would increase the deficit by at least $340 billion by 2021, a sharp contrast from the $210 billion in deficit reduction estimated by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Chuck bases his estimates on several factors, but the item that…

  • Why Free is a Bad Price, American Airlines Edition

    Donald Marron
    7 May 2012 | 5:48 pm
    Companies often run into trouble when they offer a service at a zero price. Not always, of course. Many all-you-can-eat buffets continue to thrive even though the marginal cost of the next chicken nugget is zero. And many content providers manage to stay in business by selling radio, TV, or display ads against the free content users enjoy. But all too often, a zero price attracts bad customers and encourages excessive consumption. Marco Arment of Instapaper, for example, discovered that a zero price attracted “undesirable customers” for his app. And AT&T famously discovered…

  • Jobs Report – The Soft Side of Mediocre

    Donald Marron
    4 May 2012 | 8:06 am
    As expected, today’s jobs data showed a slowing labor market. Payrolls expanded by 115,000 in April, less than hoped or expected. Upward revisions to February and March added another 53,000 jobs, however, so the overall payroll picture is better than the headline. The unemployment rate ticked down to 8.1%, the labor force participation rate slipped to 63.6%, weekly hours were unchanged at 34.5, and hourly earnings increased a measly penny from $23.37 to $23.38. Put it all together, and this report is on the soft side of mediocre. Unemployment and underemployment both remain very high, but…

  • Investing in Memories, Ocelot Edition

    Donald Marron
    30 Apr 2012 | 9:22 pm
    A recurring theme of recent happiness research is that when it comes to seeking pleasure, people should “buy experiences rather than things.” People are happier when they skip the shiny baubles (or new high heels) and do something memorable. Over at the Atlantic, Garett Jones gives one economic explanation for this finding: memories are a durable good. [M]emory, wholly intangible, is quite durable. People often shrink from driving to a distant, promising restaurant, flying to a new country, trying a new sport–it’s a hassle, and the experience won’t last that…
 
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    Wehr in the World

  • Herzog

    Justin Wehr
    25 Apr 2012 | 3:39 am
    Werner Herzog is one of my favorite people in existence and yet for some reason I have said scarcely little about him on this blog—probably because I love his stuff so much that it’s hard to write about it without doing it a giant sentimental disservice. Well, here are three reviews I just posted to Amazon. Hopefully I did them only a minor sentimental disservice. Cave of Forgotten Dreams (5 stars) I live in North Carolina and I took a trip to NYC to see this film. Why? Aside from the obvious (3D is better in theaters, and it wasn't playing in my hometown, and I'm a dork), I went because:…

  • 30+ hours of TV later...

    Justin Wehr
    22 Apr 2012 | 1:58 am
    I just finished watching 30+ hours of television. I have some observations. I watched the first two seasons of Community plus the most recent 7 episodes in Season 3. Fifty-five episodes in all. Plus I did lots of pausing and rewinding, I watched all the outtakes and deleted scenes, I watched some episodes more than once, and I watched some episodes with commentary. I also did Wikipedia- and IMDB-browsing. And Googling and YouTubing. I invested 30+ hours of direct attention in the series, plus hours of indirect attention when it was on my mind at random times throughout the day, like now. I…

  • Ranking usefulness

    Justin Wehr
    20 Apr 2012 | 1:17 am
    Right now, there are hundreds (thousands?) of people fervently, cut-throatily competing for a single honor. They are kept up at night culling weaknesses, spying on competition, strategizing, scheming. They take courses in writing and social psychology and consumer theory, they urge their friends and acquaintances to support them in the fight, they obsess over the details of their craft, and they do it in hopes of achieving the ultimate goal: being crowned an Amazon.com Top Reviewer. It looks like the top reviewers have already ceded Hall of Fame victory to Miss Harriet Klausner, who is…

  • The post-post-modern TV show

    Justin Wehr
    10 Apr 2012 | 9:39 pm
    In the last post I wrote about how I want a new brand of writing called person criticism. Well, I think I’ve got it. I just didn’t expect it from a basic cable sitcom. NBC’s Community criticizes everyone. It doesn’t just make fun of celebrities so that we feel better about ourselves; it makes fun of average people for getting their self-worth from mocking celebrities. It doesn’t just make fun of goofy fat people; it makes fun of average people for perpetuating that cliché. Community has been called the post-post-modern TV show. I’m still waiting for a clear explanation of what…

  • (Don’t) Judge Me

    Justin Wehr
    6 Apr 2012 | 12:36 am
    I propose a new kind of writing: Just as there is book criticism and film criticism, I want there to be person criticism. I am careful to use the word “criticism” rather than “review” because there’s an important difference. Reviews are what you see in newspapers or popular magazines, and their purpose is mainly to help you decide whether you ought to consume a book/movie/TV show/etc. A review, in other words, is basically a Consumer Reports for the arts, a dry evaluation to help you, the consumer, make good use of your resources. Criticism, on the other hand, … Any really…
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    Mandel on Innovation and Growth

  • Dropbox, Google Drive, and the Consumer Price Index

    Michael Mandel
    15 May 2012 | 3:41 pm
    I was looking at the April CPI this morning, and I got to thinking about Dropbox. I use Dropbox literally 25-50 times a day.  I’m working on a file on my Apple laptop, save it to the Dropbox folder,  and I can be sure that the same file will show up on my PC when I get home. Dropbox costs me nothing for 2.5 GB worth of storage. More important, I’m getting a valuable service for nothing. Now comes along Google Drive, which supposedly functions much the same way, and offers 5 GB of storage.  Now, I’m not going to switch any time soon because Dropbox is working fine for me.

  • The labor market continues to heal

    Michael Mandel
    9 May 2012 | 5:19 am
    Is the labor market stagnating or improving? Pessimists, including Mitt Romney, interpreted the weak April jobs numbers as a bad sign for the labor market. This negative view was seemingly confirmed by the May 8th BLS release on job openings, which started by saying: “There were 3.7 million job openings on the last business day of March, little changed from February.” However, focusing on the private-sector tells a much different story. In fact,private-secto job openings actually jumped by 6% in March. Since December, private sector job openings have been rising at a 24% annual…

  • Does Romney Face an ‘App Surprise’?

    Michael Mandel
    8 May 2012 | 3:38 pm
    My new piece on Atlantic.com  Zuckmentum!: Why the Silicon Valley App Boom Could Sink Romney  

  • The Government Investment Drought Continues…..

    Michael Mandel
    29 Apr 2012 | 4:52 am
    Sometimes things are not what we think they are. The conventional notion is that government has become more important under President Obama, while the private sector has stagnated. Yet in some ways the data tell a different story. Take a look at this chart. The top (blue) line shows that private nonresidential investment has rebounded smartly since early 2009, when President Obama took office. Residential investment first dropped, and then mostly came back. The real problem is government investment, which is down 8.3% since the first quarter of 2009, and still falling. In other words,…

  • Why Bash Innovative Google?

    Michael Mandel
    27 Apr 2012 | 5:20 am
    Let me get this straight.  The communications boom is finally reviving the U.S. economy. There’s an incredible wave of startup activity and excitement around smartphones, mobile apps, broadband wireless. Jobs are being created, and the economy feels alive again.  Sounds like a great time to be celebrating our success, doesn’t it? Yet the Federal Trade Commission has apparently decided that it’s a good time to go after Google, one of the key leaders of the communications revolution. And, oh yes, incidentally one of the most  innovative companies in the world.  Are these…
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    Supply and Demand (in that order)

  • Food Stamps and Unemployment Insurance

    9 May 2012 | 6:24 am
    Copyright, The New York Times CompanyThe Department of Agriculture’s food-stamp program, now known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, was originally intended as a program for the poor. But it has transformed itself into an important source of support for the unemployed.Traditionally, food-stamp program participants were subject to an asset test – households with a total of more than a few thousand dollars of assets in their bank accounts, automobiles and other assets were not eligible even if income was zero. In this way, food stamps had a lot in common with…

  • The Safety Net and Layoffs

    2 May 2012 | 6:22 am
    Copyright, The New York Times CompanyEmployment remains remarkably low five years after the housing market began its decline and four years after the financial crisis. During that time, the social safety net – government programs that help people without jobs and otherwise with low incomes – adopted new rules that made programs more inclusive and more generous.I do not think this is all a coincidence. By increasing its support for people without jobs and those with low incomes, our government has helped expand the population of people without jobs and with low incomes.The more generous…

  • HBC Testimony

    28 Apr 2012 | 10:21 am
    Last week I testified about marginal tax rates at the U.S. House Budget Committee. The video is here. This video may not be visible on mobile devices. For my testimony, jump ahead to 13:45 and jump again to 51:20. The written testimony is here.

  • Flavors of Austerity and Stimulus

    26 Apr 2012 | 10:11 am
    Copyright, The New York Times Company Fiscal austerity and fiscal stimulus can have a variety of effects on the economy, depending on the degree to which they redistribute income to high earners from low earners.As national and state government debt levels have risen, governments are facing the fact that they must soon either default on their obligations, cut their spending, increase their revenue or some combination thereof.Default is an intriguing option, but it rarely occurs on government debt, even when the alternatives are painful. That is because default sharply increases the cost of…

  • The Largest Marginal Tax Rate Ever?

    19 Apr 2012 | 10:08 am
    Copyright, The New York Times Company In 2012, the Treasury Department began a new phase of its Home Affordable Modification Program, or HAMP. In doing so, it may have the distinction of putting into place the largest marginal income tax rate ever in a non-Communist country.For home mortgage borrowers who appear to be headed for foreclosure, mortgage programs typically recommend a revised mortgage payment amount that is lower than the payment specified in the original mortgage contract. The new payment is set in proportion to the borrower’s income at the time of the modification.The…
 
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    The Monkey Cage

  • More NSF-Related Links

    John Sides
    15 May 2012 | 7:38 pm
    Steven Mazie argues for defending social science generally. On-line petition to Congress. Brendan Nyhan weighs in. APSA’s talking points.

  • Do we have a civic duty to pick up those dinnertime robocalls?

    Andrew Gelman
    15 May 2012 | 6:49 pm
    About an hour ago, we received the following email from the communications director of University of California Television: Thought you might be interested in this short video commentary featuring UC Berkeley Goldman School of Public Policy Dean Henry E. Brady on why it’s so important for average citizens to participate in political polls. The video premiered today on UCTV Prime, the YouTube original channel from University of California. Hope you’ll share the timely piece with your readers. I’ve known Henry forever and have a great respect for him and his work. Also I agree…

  • Polarization is Real (and Asymmetric)

    Nolan McCarty
    15 May 2012 | 4:53 pm
    This post is co-authored with Keith Poole, Howard Rosenthal, and Chris Hare.  It is cross-posted at voteview blog. The recent outburst of scholarly and popular interest in political polarization has attracted attention to the methods we use to measure this phenomenon. One frequently voiced concern (see a recent column by Sean Trende) is that Congress may not have polarized as we have claimed in publications and blogs stretching as far back as 1984. The concern is that the meaning of ideological (NOMINATE) scores are tied to the legislative and historical context of the roll call…

  • Thoughts on the Lawsuit Against Filibustering in the Senate

    Gregory Koger
    15 May 2012 | 1:58 pm
    I have to confess I am very excited that Common Cause has filed a lawsuit against the Senate filibuster. Excited in a John Stuart Mill, isn’t-it-great-when-bad-arguments-get-aired-and-demolished kind of way. For decades, opponents of the filibuster have claimed that it is “unconstitutional.” Now they will get their day in court and if, as I expect, they lose, then we can return the question of if and how senators will address the systemic problems of their chamber. I have already discussed the constitutionality in a previous post. After reading the plaintiffs’…

  • What Has the NSF Wrought?

    John Sides
    15 May 2012 | 1:44 pm
    This is a guest post by Rick Wilson, Herbert S. Autrey Chair of Political Science at Rice University and current editor of the American Journal of Political Science. ***** Years ago I was a Political Science program officer at NSF and I can attest to Chris Zorn’s comments about the review process posted in this blog.  NSF’s peer review process is thorough and complete.  Since that time I have served on numerous NSF panels and I continue to be impressed by the time and energy devoted to ensuring that the best in basic research is funded.  My usual lament for NSF was…
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    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Question 5 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys

    Andrew
    15 May 2012 | 3:00 pm
    5. Which of the following better describes changes in public opinion on most issues? (Choose only one.) (a) Dynamic stability: On any given issue, average opinion remains stable but liberals and conservatives move back and forth in opposite directions (the “accordion model”) (b) Uniform swing: Average opinion on an issue can move but the liberals and conservatives don’t move much relative to each other (the disribution of opinions is a “solid block of wood”) (c) Compensating tradeoffs: When considering multiple survey questions on the same general topic, average opinion can move…

  • A statistical research project: Weeding out the fraudulent citations

    Andrew
    15 May 2012 | 8:26 am
    John Mashey points me to a blog post by Phil Davis on “the emergence of a citation cartel.” Davis tells the story: Cell Transplantation is a medical journal published by the Cognizant Communication Corporation of Putnam Valley, New York. In recent years, its impact factor has been growing rapidly. In 2006, it was 3.482 [I think he means "3.5"---ed.]. In 2010, it had almost doubled to 6.204. When you look at which journals cite Cell Transplantation, two journals stand out noticeably: the Medical Science Monitor, and The Scientific World Journal. According to the JCR, neither of…

  • Question 4 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys

    Andrew
    14 May 2012 | 4:00 pm
    4. Researchers have found that survey respondents overreport church attendance. Thus, naive estimates from surveys overstate the percentage of Americans who attend church regularly. Does this have a large impact on estimates of time trends in religious attendance? Solution to question 3 From yesterday: 3. We discussed in class the best currently available method for estimating the proportion of military servicemembers who are gay. What is that method? (Recall the problems with the direct approach: there is no simple way to survey servicemembers at random, nor is it likely that they would…

  • I hate to get all Gerd Gigerenzer on you here, but . . .

    Andrew
    14 May 2012 | 8:22 am
    Jonathan Cantor points me to an opinion piece by psychologist Reid Hastie, “Our Gift for Good Stories Blinds Us to the Truth.” I have mixed feelings about Hastie’s article. On one hand I do think his point is important. It’s not new to me, but presumably it’s new to many readers of bloomberg.com. I like Hastie’s book (with Robyn Dawes), Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, and I’m predisposed to like anything new that he writes. On the other hand, there’s something about Hastie’s article that bothered me. It seemed a bit smug, as if he…

  • Question 3 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys

    Andrew
    13 May 2012 | 3:00 pm
    3. We discussed in class the best currently available method for estimating the proportion of military servicemembers who are gay. What is that method? (Recall the problems with the direct approach: there is no simple way to survey servicemembers at random, nor is it likely that they would answer such a question honestly.) Solution to question 2 From yesterday: 2. Which of the following are useful goals in a pilot study? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) You can search for statistical significance, then from that decide what to look for in a confirmatory analysis of your full dataset. (b) You…
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    Capital Chronicle

  • Casino Capitalism: hedge it!

    19 Apr 2012 | 1:02 pm
    “It is usually agreed that casinos should, in the public interest, be inaccessible and expensive. And perhaps the same is true of Stock Exchanges. That the sins of the London Stock Exchange are less than those of Wall Street may be due, not so much to differences in national character, as to the fact that to the average Englishman Throgmorton Street is, compared with Wall Street to the average American, inaccessible and very expensive”When JM Keynes wrote that in The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Moneyit is certain he was not on the lookout for a gap in the market in order to…

  • Still time to change those francs to euros!

    18 Jan 2012 | 3:05 am
    Limited time offer, ends 17 February!Not only have the New Year sales just kicked off in France (the dates of which are governed by legislation, an interesting curio) but you can still get a bargain for those old francs under the mattress!You read right. Take your Pierre and Marie Curies, your Eiffels, your Cézannes and your Debussys - coins no longer accepted, navré - down to your local Banque de France and get...euros (while stocks last)! Affaire!Who says the EFSF is illusory and circular?

  • LulzSec forgive us our debts (and other 2012 predictions)

    26 Dec 2011 | 11:53 am
    Debts forgiven!  In a scene reminiscent of the "adult toy" revenge scene from the Girl with the Dragon Tattoo the LulzSec hacker group declare their frustration with the rigidity of personal debt obligations that, they claim, hinder corporate investment in higher speed internet gaming infrastructure (“no one will be able to afford it if they build it”).   They launch a massive and coordinated hack of retail bank computer networks across the globe erasing household mortgage records (taking the time to digitally tattoo the word "Occupied" in all data fields) and thereby…

  • Olympus: the camera never lies...

    9 Nov 2011 | 11:08 am
    Both cloudyMaybe the move from analogue to digital has not been so smooth after all.One might think there could be no doubt someone, somewhere in Olympus will serve a stretch for this. However, with the former President Toshiro Shimoyama (1984 to 1993) reportedly claiming that:"he had no memory of any loss-hiding scheme and was not closely involved in finance at the time"there seem to be few signs of imminent seppuku. On the other hand, recent executives - younger, sharper and fully digitised on the memory front - probably do recall paying an advisory fee of $687m. It was a little over the…

  • "Investor relations", a novel. By MF Global

    31 Oct 2011 | 11:10 am
    But will it sell? 24 October: "NEW YORK, Oct 24, 2011 -- MF Global Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: MF), a broker-dealer providing trading and hedging solutions, has rescheduled the release of its fiscal second quarter 2012 financial results from Thursday, October 27, 2011 to Tuesday, October 25, 2011.(link)25 October: "Strengthened capital and liquidity position. As of September 30, 2011, the company has over $3.7 billion in available liquidity, including $1.3 billion in available committed revolving credit facilities and $2.5 billion in total capital." (link) "Over the course of the past year, we have…
 
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    Businomics Blog

  • International Economic Forecast 2012-2013

    Bill Conerly
    24 Apr 2012 | 12:52 pm
    I've described my international economic forecast over on my Forbes site, comparing my views to the recent International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, April 2012.  For a quick preview, consider the risks to the global economic outlook: The height of the line shows the probability. "Muddle through" is the most likely scenario. Moving left, there's the risk of a war with Iran, and then an even greater risk that Europe flames out in a financial crisis. More details at Forbes.com.

  • The Future of Telecom: An Economic Perspective

    Bill Conerly
    20 Apr 2012 | 3:37 pm
    If Adam Smith had observed the modern telecom industry, he might have added some interesting insights. The father of modern economics noted that division of labor had led to great improvements in mankind’s material wealth, but the system was never designed by anyone. It developed spontaneously as various people started specializing and trading. No one in prehistoric times had a guiding vision of what the process would look like by 1776, when Smith’s The Wealth of Nations was published.What would Adam Smith have added had he been able to watch the telecom industry? That the process of…

  • Strategic Planning Is a Waste of Time--At Most Companies

    Bill Conerly
    4 Apr 2012 | 12:50 pm
    Strategic planning should not be a waste of time, but it often is. Confirmation of this common notion comes from a recent McKinsey Study, "How to put your money where your strategy is." They found that most corporations do not reallocate capital among their business units, or at least not in a significant amount. The study further found that those corporations that do reallocate capital significantly outperform the others. The value of those corporations is 40 percent higher after 15 years, on average. There are a number of important reasons why this occurs, including maintaining a…
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    TheMoneyIllusion

  • Evan Soltas provides the best argument for NGDP targeting

    ssumner
    15 May 2012 | 11:15 am
    When Evan Soltas first asked me to add his blog to my blogroll, I politely declined.  I thought it was cute that a high school senior was attempting blogging, but come on, let’s be serious. Big mistake.  Unfortunately, his blog is so consistently good that it can no longer be ignored.  A few days ago Evan provided six arguments in favor of NGDP targeting.  Nick Rowe pointed out that the sixth (which Evan thought up himself) was a sort of refutation of Schumpeterian economics.  Evan follows up with a post that quotes from an appalling piece in the Boston Globe: Today, few mainstream…

  • Did the government cause the Great Depression?

    ssumner
    15 May 2012 | 9:42 am
    A while back some commenters asked me to respond to this claim by Brad DeLong: Back then, the Friedmans made three powerful factual claims about how the world works – claims that seemed true or maybe true or at least arguably true at the time, but that now seem to be pretty clearly false. Their case for small-government libertarianism rested largely on those claims, and has now largely crumbled, because the world, it turned out, disagreed with them about how it works. The first claim was that macroeconomic distress is caused by the government, not by the unstable private market, or, rather,…

  • “There is no debt crisis in Europe–it’s a monetary crisis”

    ssumner
    14 May 2012 | 7:18 pm
    I stole the title of this post from a PowerPoint slide that Lars Christensen sent me.  Perhaps there’s a bit of hyperbole there, but it reminded me of my research on the Great Depression.  During 1931 all the Very Serious People were obsessed with the debt crisis.  In some mysterious way they believed this was a major cause of the Depression itself.  I’m not sure why, I think it had something to do with “confidence.”  Interestingly, the debt crisis never really got resolved.  Instead it just gradually faded away as an issue, as by late 1932 it was becoming…

  • This is the bullish scenario!

    ssumner
    14 May 2012 | 8:34 am
    The Telegraph has a couple great pieces today.  Here’s Roger Bootle: The big danger for the rest of the eurozone is not that Greece makes a complete horlicks of monetary independence but rather that it makes a comparative success of it. For this to happen, life in the proximity of Syntagma Square does not have to become a cakewalk; it just needs to be better than the current situation of economic collapse without prospect of relief. Suppose that within a year or so of exit, it looks as though the Greek economy is starting to recover. How then would the governments of Portugal, Spain,…

  • How do you spell ‘market monetarism’ in German?

    ssumner
    12 May 2012 | 8:27 pm
    The relentless march of market monetarism toward world domination continues: The Bundesbank and political leaders in Berlin, amid mounting anti-German sentiment in the eurozone, conceded what was once unthinkable, allowing Europe’s biggest economy to risk inflation in order to pull the rest of the contracting continent back from the brink. I guess when all the other alternatives (fiscal union, eurozone breakup, etc) are completely unthinkable, then the “highly undesirable” starts to look pretty good.  Trichet bragged upon leaving office that the ECB’s “stellar…
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    Scott Lincicome

  • Game On: New CVD/NME Law Faces Early Constitutional Challenge

    13 May 2012 | 5:17 pm
    When we last checked in on the fate of the new US law applying countervailing duties to imports from "non-market economies" like China and Vietnam, the plaintiffs in the court case that started the whole legislative scramble (GPX Int'l Tire Corp v. United States) had filed a brief constitutional challenge to the new law before the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.  The CAFC had requested a response from the parties to the case as to the effects that the new law would have on the proceedings, and the plaintiffs - GPX and Tianjin United Tire & Rubber International Co. -…

  • Perfect: US TPP Negotiating Positions Getting Bogged Down by a Product We Don't Even Make Anymore

    9 May 2012 | 8:12 pm
    I've expressed more than a little skepticism about the Obama administration's ambitious plan to complete the Trans-Pacific Partnership by the end of the year.  My concerns relate more to systemic issues (e.g., the lack of a consensus view on the framework for market access schedules), rather than product-specific ones.  But maybe I should start sweating the latter as much as, or more than, the former. It seems that a minor war has broken out over - no joke - US tariffs on footwear.  Here's Businessweek with some details: The Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America,…

  • Is Commerce Delaying DS379 Implementation Because of Struggles with CVD/NME and "Double Counting"?

    8 May 2012 | 8:59 pm
    Quick answer: it sure looks like it. With absolutely no fanfare, the United States missed the April 25 deadline for implementing the WTO Appellate Body's decision in US-Anti-Dumping and Countervailing Duties (China) (aka DS379) which held, among other things, that the Department of Commerce's concurrent application of anti-dumping (AD) duties and countervailing duties (CVDs) on imports from China and other "non-market economies" violated WTO rules. (Lots more on the WTO's DS379 decision here if you're interested.)  According to several reports[$] (and the US…

  • New McKinsey Study Pokes Fatal Holes in Common Trade Myths

    6 May 2012 | 6:19 pm
    Readers of this blog know that one of the themes here has been dismantling pervasive "protectionist myths" that mislead the public into supporting - and thereby empower politicians to implement - anti-trade policies.  Now, a new study from McKinsey, "Trading myths: Addressing misconceptions about trade, jobs, and competitiveness," contributes to this line of attack scholarship.  There are a few things here that I don't totally support (e.g., erroneously labeling an expanding trade deficit a per se "deterioration"), but the whole thing is definitely worth a read.  Some of the…

  • Best Case Scenario: Tire Tariffs Cost $900k Per US Tire "Job" Saved

    3 May 2012 | 8:02 pm
    I've been traveling over the last few days, and am thus a little late to this story, but it's just too good to pass up. As readers of this blog know, I've been a vocal critic of President Obama's 2009 decision to impose  - at the request of the United Steelworkers Union - tariffs on Chinese tires pursuant to Section 421 of US trade law.  The last two-plus years have repeatedly revealed just how warranted that criticism is.  Now, a new study by the Peterson Institute's Gary Hufbauer and Sean Lowry puts a very precise price tag on those tariffs and finds that - at best…
 
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    David Roodman's Microfinance Open Book Blog

  • Welcome Coverage, but Not Quite Scrutiny, of KGFS

    David Roodman
    14 May 2012 | 5:58 pm
    By David Roodman - Back in 2009, my colleague Liliana Rojas-Suarez convened a meeting at CGD of a task force that would draft Policy Principles for Expanding Financial Access. Attendees included Jonathan Morduch of NYU; and Nachiket Mor of the IFMR Trust, who brought along Bindu Ananth. During a break, Bindu started to tell me about the IFMR Trust’s radical new approach to bringing financial services to poor Indians, called Kshetriya Gramin Financial Services (KGFS), which means “Regional Rural Financial Services.” I was just finding my way as a blogger, so when Jonathan…

  • Yunus-Bashing Escalates

    David Roodman
    11 May 2012 | 1:15 pm
    By David Roodman - Hillary Clinton passed through Bangladesh last weekend and publicly expressed her strong support for Muhammad Yunus and the Grameen Bank. “I don’t want anything that would in any way undermine what has been a tremendous model.” She also visited Yunus, whom she has known since 1986. The powers in Bangladesh did not appreciate Hillary’s contribution. Two top officials has gone after Clinton and Yunus, equally publicly. The rather less-famous finance minister who helped Yunus found the Grameen Bank, opined: “I think this comment is very…

  • Weekly Tweets for 2012-05-11

    David Roodman
    11 May 2012 | 12:00 pm
    By David Roodman - New @CGAP video and report on @IFMRTrust's KGFS business, which is thriving despite being impossible http://t.co/I8HdUtVT #microfinance # Africa’s Child Health Miracle: The Biggest, Best Story in Development by @m_clem http://t.co/kbr5yFN2 via @CGDev # An account of the U of Chicago conference I spoke at on Friday http://t.co/4iTwWJ8t #microfinance # SKS will move its headquarters out of the state whose government clobbered it http://t.co/A1or4XGU #microfinance #

  • Ripost to Rupert

    David Roodman
    8 May 2012 | 3:56 pm
    By David Roodman - Rupert Scofield has replied to my retort to his review, etc. Clearly neither of us has swayed the other much, but I appreciate the friendliness and honesty, not to mention vividness, of his latest post. He has conceded to me the argument over what the economic studies say. So his main thesis now is: I think David, in his faith in the power of numbers, has strayed too far from the path of Common Sense. Example: If, as David concludes, there is value to be found in the creation of an industry that has corrected—for many millions of people—the “market failure”…

  • Weekly Tweets for 2012-05-04

    David Roodman
    4 May 2012 | 12:00 pm
    By David Roodman - RT @JeanetteThomas1: Morduch interprets findings on formality and informality from Findex Survey http://t.co/Y2XjjGok #savings #microfinance # Seminar on microsavings with some stars in the study of its impacts http://t.co/rKJN4Jvo May 16. Join in person or online. #microfinance # RT @rupertscofield The Debate Continues More on the Book of David (Roodman) http://t.co/z9cljhgC via @rupertscofield #
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    Jesse's Café Américain

  • Eliot Spitzer on JPM and Bank Reform

    16 May 2012 | 12:18 am
    “For all sad words of tongue and pen, The saddest are these, 'It might have been'.” John Greenleaf Whittier Flawed indeed. Slate Flawed Dimon By Eliot Spitzer May 14, 2012 What to do with Jamie Dimon? The CEO and Chair of JPMorgan Chase has tried so hard in the past several years to seem the “good banker.” He is so charming and gracious, yet all the while lobbying, cajoling, pushing, and

  • Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - More Liquidation on Greece and Facebook

    15 May 2012 | 3:15 pm
    More concern on Greece and what will happen if it leaves the Euro had traders fleeing risk and commodities including gold and silver. There is also quite a bit of secondary liquidation being done as traders raise cash for 'the Big Flip' when Facebook comes out after the bell on Thursday. Expectations are for the stock to price in the 30's, and then run up in the secondary market into the 60's

  • SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - RNN Interviews Bill Black on JPM

    15 May 2012 | 3:12 pm
    Fears about what will happen with Greece and the Euro weighed on stocks. There is also secondary liquidation as funds raise cash to play the big pop in the Facebook IPO which prices after the bell on Thursday. Expectations are that the stock will come out in the 30's and pop higher to 50's at which point the momentum traders will start to flip it and hand it off to mom and pop and the pension

  • Max Keiser Interviews Nomi Prins on JPM and Derivatives Bets

    15 May 2012 | 11:13 am

  • Nomi Prins: On JPM, the Whale Man, and Glass-Steagall

    14 May 2012 | 9:30 pm
    This is one of the better commentaries on JPM and the history and imperatives of banking regulation that I have seen recently. I do not wish to beat this to death, but I have read too many glib economist and stock tout comments sloughing this off as 'no big deal.' Not surprisingly, these were many of the same people who said similar things during the build up of the credit bubble and the
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    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • Private schools' advantage

    chris dillow
    14 May 2012 | 9:39 am
    Michael Gove's speech decrying the domination of the privately-educated has reignited an old debate. But there are two important distinctions to be made here. One is: does private schooling confer advantages merely through the quality of its education, or does it confer them even beyond this? If private schools merely offer better education, you'd expect their pupils to get more A levels and places at Oxbridge, but you wouldn't expect them to go on to succeed more than state school pupils with the same qualifications. However, two pieces of evidence suggest they do better than…

  • Ordering effects, luck & rationality

    chris dillow
    13 May 2012 | 4:46 am
    I point out here that people's choices can be sensitive to arbitary differences in the order in which options appear. In the Eurovision song contest, for example, the first or later performers have more chance of winning than those appearing in the middle of the show. I omitted to add that this ordering effect also matters in politics. A new paper concludes: Alphabetic ordering effects exist in the 1977 2011 Irish general elections. The effect is significant, in both a statistical and substantive sense. The estimated effect of being listed first on an alphabetical ballot paper in an Irish…

  • Economic freedom & social tolerance

    chris dillow
    11 May 2012 | 9:02 am
    Tim professes amazement that the Guardian's new human rights site ignores economic freedoms. This raises the question: what's the link between economic liberty and social liberties? Highfalutin talk about freedom being indivisible isn't much help here, if only because so many folk think otherwise. For every Guardianista who favours gay rights but dislikes economic liberty, there's a Conservative with the opposite preference. Nor is UK history much guide. If we compare now to the 1970s, we probably have more economic liberty, by Tim's lights, than we did then and…

  • Danny O'Donoghue, meet game theory

    chris dillow
    10 May 2012 | 8:23 am
    For me, one of the most interesting economic issues of recent weeks is not Greece, or the failure of Osborne's fiscal austerity, or NGDP targeting, or any of that bigthink guff. It is Danny O'Donoghue's claim that The Voice will attract more talent next year than other talent shows. I'm not sure. Let's grant Danny's premise that The Voice is more musically credible than the X Factor. Does it follow that the best singers will go into The Voice? No. We can think of the problem facing singers as being much like the hawk-dove game, where good singers are hawks and poor…

  • Openness in policy-making

    chris dillow
    9 May 2012 | 6:49 am
    The government has refused to publish the risk assessment of its NHS reforms, claiming that doing so "could harm the quality of future advice from civil servants." Andrew Lansley says: There...needs to be safe space where officials are able to give ministers full and frank advice in developing policies and programmes. This makes little sense to me. Think of this in terms of incentives: how would openness reduce civil servants' incentives to give full and frank advice? Surely, the knowledge that your thinking will be publicized increases your incentives to do better, simply…
 
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    David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

  • Meanwhile, in the real world

    David Smith
    15 May 2012 | 3:00 pm
    The argument that very low gilt yields mean the government should be borrowing a lot more to fund capital or other spending has been around for a while, though nobody knows how much more borrowing it would take to trigger...

  • French and German GDP - a welcome puzzle

    David Smith
    15 May 2012 | 3:45 am
    There is some small eurozone relief in the fact that German gross domestic product rose by 0.5% in the first quarter, while French GDP was flat. Both countries have avoided the commonly-used definition of recession: two consecutive quarters of declining...

  • Safe-haven pound need not kill off exports

    David Smith
    12 May 2012 | 4:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The European Union is turning into a very dysfunctional family. Greece, now combining deep economic pain with political instability, is the troubled teenager threatening to leave...

  • Construction down further

    David Smith
    11 May 2012 | 7:00 am
    Because of the quality and volatility of the data, the Office for National Statistics had to make heroic assumptions even to limit the fall in construction output in the Q1 gross domestic product figures to 3%. Now it has more...

  • Mixed industrial news

    David Smith
    10 May 2012 | 5:00 am
    There was a welcome 0.9% rise in manufacturing output in March, according to the Office for National Statistics, following a disappointing 1% drop in February. Manufacturing output was flat in the first quarter compared with the final quarter of 2011,...
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    Top Gun Financial Planning

  • Top Gun FP Client Note: The Quality Of Earnings

    Greg Feirman
    7 May 2012 | 9:14 am
    NOTE: Every week or two I write a Client Note for my clients. For a limited time, I am allowing non-clients to sign up and receive it at the same time as my clients. You can sign up at the top right hand corner of the website. I will also be posting the notes on my blog with a time delay from time to time. Originally sent to clients May 1. Everybody is talking about how good 1st quarter earnings have been. About 70% of companies have beaten analyst estimates - above the historical average. Earnings are up 6% compared to analyst estimates at the beginning of the season for up 1%. However,…

  • Top Gun FP Client Note: The Long Awaited Correction

    Greg Feirman
    7 May 2012 | 8:58 am
    NOTE: Every week or two I write a Client Note for my clients. For a limited time, I am allowing non-clients to sign up and receive it at the same time as my clients. You can sign up at the top right hand corner of the website. I will also be posting the notes on my blog with a time delay from time to time. Originally sent to clients April 17. Stocks finally had the long awaited correction after the first quarter melt up. From Tuesday April 2nd through Tuesday April 10th, the S&P dropped 60 points (4%). That might not seem like a lot but it represents a 37% giveback of the year-to-date…

  • Top Gun FP Client Note: A Preview Of 1st Quarter Earnings

    Greg Feirman
    3 May 2012 | 4:22 pm
    NOTE: Every week or two I write a Client Note for my clients. For a limited time, I am allowing non-clients to sign up and receive it at the same time as my clients. You can sign up at the top right hand corner of the website. I will also be posting the notes on my blog with a time delay from time to time. Originally sent to clients April 3. ***** With the 1st quarter having ended last week, the next big item on the Wall Street calendar is earnings season.  Early indications suggest it will not be a good one. Helping us get a gauge are two important companies whose fiscal quarters end a…

  • Top Gun FP Client Note: Keynes Critique Of Wall Street

    Greg Feirman
    28 Mar 2012 | 9:40 am
    NOTE: Every week or two I write a Client Note for my clients.  For a limited time, I am allowing non-clients to sign up and receive it at the same time as my clients.  You can sign up at the top right hand corner of the website.  I will also be posting the notes on my blog with a time delay from time to time. Originally sent to clients March 20. When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done.   - John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Chapter 12 In Chapter 12 section 5…

  • Top Gun FP Client Note: The Day After Tomorrow

    Greg Feirman
    12 Mar 2012 | 8:01 am
    NOTE: Every week or two I write a Client Note for my clients.  For a limited time, I am allowing non-clients to sign up and receive it at the same time as my clients.  You can sign up at the top right hand corner of the website.  I will also be posting the notes on my blog with a time delay from time to time. Originally sent to clients March 5. Complacency often sets in when the market is making small and persistent gains like it is now.  Environments like this can persist, but when a selloff occurs it can be shocking and the drops are often relatively large.   - Rob Hanna, March…
 
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    Project Syndicate RSS-Feed

  • Hillary Clinton’s Asian Adventure

    Jaswant Singh
    16 May 2012 | 5:20 am
    On her recent trip to China, Bangladesh, and India, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was eager to trumpet America’s “New Silk Road” strategy, which she unveiled last September. But the Silk Road was a trade route, whereas knife-edge diplomacy dominated Clinton’s Asian tour.

  • Hollande or Insurrection?

    Zaki Laidi
    16 May 2012 | 5:10 am
    For better or worse, Europe is now engaged in an revolt against the fiscal pact condemning EU member countries to austerity without growth. Will the election of François Hollande as French President shift Germany’s uncompromising stance?

  • The Diplomacy Option

    Christopher R. Hill
    16 May 2012 | 4:40 am
    Those who call for a military solution to the problem of Iran’s nuclear aspirations, without first supporting diplomacy and economic sanctions, miss a key point: many countries will not support a military solution until other means of persuasion (and coercion) fail.

  • The Death of Inflation Targeting

    Jeffrey Frankel
    16 May 2012 | 3:37 am
    Inflation targeting by central banks, a hugely popular monetary-policy anchor around the world, died in September 2008, when it became clear that those who had been relying on it had not paid enough attention to asset-price bubbles. But its death was never announced, owing to uncertainty over what should succeed it.

  • Oil and Isolation

    Juliet Torome
    15 May 2012 | 9:50 am
    Kenya’s government recently announced that oil had been discovered in the Lake Turkana basin, an isolated region whose people have long been the butt of other Kenyans' jokes. But the potential for conflict over oil exploration and extraction in the region is no laughing matter.
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    Reed Construction Data:Notes from Alex Carrick

  • Economic Nuggets - May 15, 2012

    rcdwebmaster@reedconstructiondata.com
    14 May 2012 | 12:00 pm
    Here are my mid-month economic nuggets, “ripped” from the latest data releases and media headlines. I've chosen the nice round number of 10.

  • Canada Rode a Second Consecutive Month of Strong Job Gains in April

    rcdwebmaster@reedconstructiondata.com
    11 May 2012 | 12:00 pm
    In the past two months, Canada has been riding an employment wave. 58,000 net new jobs were created in April, according to Statistics Canada. That’s on top of the 83,000 net increase that was recorded in March. There are now 141,000 more positions in the work force than there were at the end of April. To put this in perspective, an annual gain of 200,000 is a quite decent figure.

  • U.S. Employment Rose by a Mediocre 115,000 in April

    rcdwebmaster@reedconstructiondata.com
    4 May 2012 | 12:00 pm
    The U.S. economy created 115,000 net new jobs in April, according to the latest labor market report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The reaction to this number will be similar to what occurred last month, a collective sigh of regret and expressions of “that’s too bad”. A month ago, the net new jobs figure was given as 120,000, not far off what is being reported for the latest period. While there’s some sense of “déjà vu” in this, there’s also irony.

  • U.S. GDP +2.2% in Q1 2012 and Alberta led Canadian Provinces in 2011

    rcdwebmaster@reedconstructiondata.com
    27 Apr 2012 | 12:00 pm
    Late April has been a time of gross domestic product (GDP) releases, both for the U.S. (first quarter 2012) and for the provinces in Canada (full year 2011). Generally speaking, growth has proceeded at a healthy but moderate pace. This article takes a look at some of the key underlying trends.

  • U.S. Inflation Low in March; Canada’s Central Bank Looking to Raise Rates

    rcdwebmaster@reedconstructiondata.com
    18 Apr 2012 | 12:00 pm
    Despite exceptionally low interest rates both north and south of the border and large increases to the money supply in the U.S., inflation remains relatively tame at this time. Longer-term inflationary prospects are another matter. Not so surprisingly, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, has indicated a willingness to raise interest rates earlier than in the United States.
 
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    OilPrice.com Daily News Update

  • Why US Energy Policy cannot Rely on Natural Gas alone

    15 May 2012 | 11:31 am
    With natural gas prices at such low levels many people are attracted to focussing on natural gas to supply the majority of US energy, believing that the domestically produced product will protect them from global oil price fluctuations, and ensure energy security in the future. However focussing on one source of energy unbalances the US energy sector and puts the economy at risk in the long term.Energy policies must take a long term view and promote fuel diversity rather than choose a favourite energy technology to support. An energy strategy that…Read more...

  • The IMF are Warned that Oil Prices Could Double by 2022

    15 May 2012 | 10:43 am
    Despite crude oil already trading on the world markets at a historically high level of $113 a barrel, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been warned by its internal research team that in the next decade oil prices could climb to a permanent level double that which we are experiencing at the moment.The increase could have a dramatic effect on global trade of all kinds, as the report, entitled The Future of Oil: Geology v Technology, warns that the prices will be “uncharted territory for the world economy, which has never experienced…Read more...

  • Using Viruses to Create Electricity

    15 May 2012 | 10:40 am
    Objects with piezoelectric properties can convert mechanical energy into electrical energy, meaning that electricity can be cleanly produced just by thought movement. Scientists have been trying to find a way to use this phenomenon to create large amounts of electricity for decades, but most materials that can be used to create piezoelectric devices are highly toxic, somewhat limiting their widespread use.Scientists at the US Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory have developed a method to create electricity via a piezoelectric…Read more...

  • Mexico has the Fastest Growing Wind Power Sector

    15 May 2012 | 10:39 am
    Mexico produces a large volume of greenhouse gases, and suffers from severe air pollution in its large cities, some of which, such as Mexico City,  have the worst air particle pollution in North America.In an effort to reduce the countries carbon emissions Mexico is looking to invest more to develop its renewable energy sector. At the beginning of 2012 President Calderón signed the Mexican Global Climate Change Program. The progam pledged $70 million over five years as part of an agreement to cooperate with the US on stimulating the…Read more...

  • As Saudi Oil Giant Expands, Can it Meet Mounting Security Concerns?

    14 May 2012 | 10:49 pm
    Already the largest oil exporter in the world, state-owned Saudi Aramco plans to significantly expand refining capacity and for the first time ever to venture into oil trading, which could render it the world’s largest integrated energy company; but mounting security threats pose a serious challenge to these ambitious goals. Aramco Trading, which opened in January, plans to move 1.5 million barrels per day in physical oil and gas, paper, futures and derivatives trading. The move coincides with Aramco’s goal of doubling its refining…Read more...
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    zentrader.ca | trend following

  • Market Astrology: The Facebook IPO Risk Trade

    jeff pierce
    15 May 2012 | 5:14 pm
    By Karen Starich Facebook is set to launch it’s initial public offering on May 18th. The social media giant has an initial target valuation as high as $100 billion. Looking at the astrology for May 18th we can get some clues as to how the stock will do, and the potential risks involved with the trade. Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder and Chief Executive at Facebook, recently celebrated his 28th birthday making the Sun’s placement in the IPO chart conjoin to his birth Sun. This is a powerful placement for the founder and the company to share in a new creative venture that will carry far…

  • The Death Of The Bull Is Near

    jeff pierce
    15 May 2012 | 11:05 am
    By Chris Ebert As with all technical indicators, the Option Indices are intended to be tools to help traders plan future trading in a manner that increases the probability of a profit. Last week, it was reported here that the Long Call/Married Put Index (LCMPI) was in danger of reaching a level that would indicate that the current bull market had ended. As of May 10, the Index had not reached that level, although it was very close. It is even closer this week. The LCMPI measures the strength of a bull market. When long calls or married puts with terms of 112 days, 28 days, and 7 days all…

  • Where SLW Would Be Attractive

    jeff pierce
    14 May 2012 | 9:18 pm
    SLW closed today at 24.40 and the area of support where I would get interested in this stock is the $17.75-19.25. That would represent enough of a “fear factor” that metals need to represent a good buying opportunity and it takes us down to significant support going back to 2008-2010. We are currently in a down trending channel and if it breaks I think it can realistically reach these support level.

  • Update on Bonds, Dollar, & Euro

    jeff pierce
    14 May 2012 | 11:33 am
    Dollar looks ready to break out above significant resistance which would be very bad for the general markets. Euro is confirming strength in Dollar by the weakness in it’s own chart. Bond strength is confirming weakness in general markets. I’ve been bullish long term on Bonds for quite some time and while there may be a bubble in bonds the weekly chart doesn’t show an overbought state so this could persist for some time. Get a new SPX options strategy delivered each week to your inbox.

  • Market Timing Signal: Down

    jeff pierce
    13 May 2012 | 2:18 pm
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    MartinKronicle

  • Boone Pickens on Picken’s Plan, Natural Gas, and Crude Oil

    Michael Martin
    2 May 2012 | 7:57 am
    Similar Posts: Crude Oil / Natural Gas Ratio Heading Higher Investment Boone in Natural Gas Brent Crude, WTI Crude, and Natural Gas Energy Study March / April Natural Gas Spread – Widowmaker Set For A Move Richard Branson: Oil Crunch by 2015. Crude Oil Spreads: Not As Far As We Can See

  • Barnes & Noble: How To Hedge A Short Sale (NYSE: BKS)

    Michael Martin
    30 Apr 2012 | 7:56 am
    News hit the tape that MSFT will invest $300 MM into BKS to support the NOOK. While we are 1 hour from the 9:30 am ET open, BKS is up 92% on the news, which has obviously caught everyone off guard. The short sellers are getting murdered as they are buying frantically along with the new longs and existing longs who want to add to their positions. Short selling involves borrowing BKS shares, selling them, and purchasing them back at a lower price. In that instance the trader keeps the difference and returns the shares to the lender. That’s when things work out. When stocks rise against…

  • Best Buy A Better Sell (NYSE: BBY)

    Michael Martin
    22 Apr 2012 | 12:12 pm
    Best Buy is shuttering stores to help the beleaguered retailer shore up expenses. Normally, layoffs and store closings will save money and are a step towards bringing the firm to higher earning per share (as well as cause a great deal of financial hardship for those laid off). However, I see this as a terrible leading indicator for what lies ahead for not only Best Buy, but other brick and mortar retailers. One of the stores being closed in SoCal is literally right across the street from the UCLA campus in the Westwood section of Los Angeles. That would make you believe that they’d have…

  • Abnormal Returns Book Interview With Tadas Viskanta

    Michael Martin
    17 Apr 2012 | 2:51 am
    Tadas Viskanta is the author of all things Abnormal so to speak: Read Abnormal Returns – the book Read Abnormal Returns – his blog Follow Abnormal Returns – his Twitter handle His blog is a must read and I’ve been reading it forever. He asked me for a quote for the back cover and it was my honor to oblige him. Needless to say, his is a great book. Read the book, Read his blog, and Follow him on Twitter. Oh, and Listen to the podcast. Similar Posts: Steve Sears, The Indomitable Investor Podcast Inner Voice of Trading Amazon Investment Book Top Seller Books I Loved in…

  • Video: Gotye Interview

    Michael Martin
    13 Apr 2012 | 3:21 pm
    It’s hard to turn on the radio these days and not hear Gotye’s Somebody That I Used To Know within 15 minutes. Here’s an interview I did with him in Los Angeles recently. He’s very talented and completely unassuming. He’ll be the musical guest on SNL tomorrow night and then at Coachella on Sunday. You can read my entire Gotye interview at Huffington Post.Similar Posts: Dalai Lama: Nurtue Each (Whole) Child Gotye in Los Angeles The Inconvenient Truth of Vermont’s Oil Speculation Video Interview with Bill Dunn Jamie Dimon’s World
 
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    The India Investment Post

  • India vs China : ( A likes comparison) Chinese inflation ticks down to 3.4%

    10 May 2012 | 9:35 pm
    While Indian inflation is likely to step out of the sub 7% mark on the wholesale levels to more than 8% following the retail index, Chinese inflation ticked up to 3.4% leading to a reaction in the morning's Asian opening. Chinese imports were up only 3% like for India at $37.9 bln with not just Oil but in India's case two thirds of the Diamonds and Gems trade shutdown and Gold and Silver imports are down by a third from a government increase in import duties. The tradedeficit thus comes to below $160 bln at the cost of over $100 bln in Exports according to the trends explained by the Govt…

  • India FDI Report (March 2012)

    10 May 2012 | 11:02 am
    India'a FDI process received a tremendous boost in March after $2 bln flows in January and February, itself a fair score were boosted to $8 bln for March even as international media slips into a morass susing ignorance of India to blindfold and play with Economic Darts which India is well provided with starting with the 4% Current Account Deficit and the double digit depreciation of the rupee to the curbs on FX trade imposed by RBI since October and added to today with punitively enforced conversion of Export dollars to a local currency. That boost was also needed for the Rupee as it faces…

  • Happy Thursdays! A touchy feely doozer on the Bank Nifty

    10 May 2012 | 3:25 am
    Is it the May series with a special corner for Shorts on the Indian index or is there another carry home from this battering of the index this week? The battering of the Rupee is incomplete and mainly destroyed by the political risk people carry when they see India. but another reason obviously is that there are about 300 scrips to choose from as one chases quality and the half of them that are the best have already reachedd FII investment limits. But that's just me. I think the markets are tremendously undervalued right now but everyone is too worried about entering into the Buy mode with so…

  • India Currency Report / Fixed Income Report - Indian Trade Data - April 2012

    10 May 2012 | 2:49 am
    India gets to consolidate the new $300 bln a year target with just under $25 bln in Exports in April and thankfully Imports started off at a low rate keeping to $37 bln for a $12 bln deficit even as EEFC restrictions / conversion of $2.5 bln into rupees shored up the dollar earlier in the morning Yields are already below 8.5% for a target and will likely range to a 8.75% mark at the most liquidity unchanged from last week. June is likely the bbig Oil import month though that is pure speculation. India is doing fine in Cotton exports to China for a few days yet,  Dollar should have…

  • Glenmark survives ECB scare

    8 May 2012 | 10:43 pm
    Pharma mid caps have survived well, Glenmark having grown OPM from 11% to 20%. Revenues have comfortably crossed the $200 mln threshold for the Quarter at INR 10 bln up more than 25% and more than INR 2 B in EBITDA  Permalink | Leave a comment  »
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    Keegan Larson

  • Facebook IPO

    Keegan Larson
    14 May 2012 | 1:02 pm
    Just in case you haven’t heard, Facebook’s IPO date is coming up. It is scheduled for May 18th and many investors are anxiously awaiting the issuance of the offering. Here are the quick pro’s and con’s of buying into Facebook. Pro’s Analysts expect Facebook revenues of $20 billion in 3-5 years (over $2+ per share which is phenomenal) Many companies report they only plan on increasing their online advertising budget Facebook’s revenue has grown over 400% the last two years Facebook is everywhere. You can’t do much in a day without seeing some company…

  • Google Share Split is a Joke

    Keegan Larson
    14 Apr 2012 | 6:42 pm
    If I am a shareholder of Google, I’m upset. Splitting shares should benefit existing shareholders and this is not doing that at all. It is empowering the already rich and powerful executives, Sergey Brin and Larry Page. Google stock currently sits at about $650 and the new stocks will not be mirror images of their old ones. All the voting rights are removed and given to Brin and Page. Now, as a Google shareholder, I have double the amount of shares but half the power. This may be in the best interest of Google (as Brin and Page put it) but it is certainly not in the best interest of the…

  • Be Smarter Than Chain Mail – April 15 Gas Out

    Keegan Larson
    28 Mar 2012 | 10:15 pm
    Once again, Facebook comes to the rescue to feed me with content for a blog post. Last time, it was the Gas Station Post It and this time it is the “Don’t Pump Gas On April 15th” post. The motto here is: you should be smarter than chain mail. The message being circulated is this: “Don’t pump gas on April, 15 2012 KEEP SENDING THIS – Let’s all try this, wonderful if it helps. Il do it! If running low, just get your gas the day before on April 14 or the day after on April 16. Every little bit helps. In April 1997, there was a “gas out”…

  • Mr. Larson Goes to Washington, Part 2

    Keegan Larson
    27 Mar 2012 | 10:35 pm
    In case you missed Part 1 of this post, I spent a few days in Washington and was able to check out the sites. Here are some more photos of all the amazing sites I had the opportunity to see.                  

  • Mr. Larson Goes to Washington

    Keegan Larson
    24 Mar 2012 | 3:35 pm
    I got an opportunity to go to Washington DC a couple weeks ago with my friend, AJ, and managed to do a little sight-seeing. I love the history on every corner. Some buildings we would walk right by and not even know it was of importance until later. It was a very cool experience and I managed to see a lot in the short time I was there. Here are just some of the awesome sites I was able to see. If you’ve never been, I highly recommend it!                
 
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    Eidolonspeak.com

  • Do Androids Dream of Human Companionship?

    Susanne Lomatch
    25 Apr 2012 | 5:52 pm
    Here’s a prediction: The next major development shift in technology, particularly consumer technology, will be artificial intelligence (AI). More specifically, AI seamlessly integrated into most consumer electronics gadgets, such as personal computers, mobile devices, game consoles, and even household appliances. The key to such technology is to capitalize on human learning and a collective memory that form human thought and “personality.” “The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.” –Arthur C. Clarke, Hazards…

  • Federal Reserve Capital Management

    Susanne Lomatch
    20 Oct 2011 | 2:11 pm
    Do central banks stabilize or destabilize financial systems? The answer is: “both.” Perhaps one popular notion is that a central bank, such as the Federal Reserve (the Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the European Central Bank (ECB), etc., is the ‘Big Bank’ that can step in and provide funding in a monetary or liquidity crisis, seeking to relieve selling pressure in markets and to get credit-money to flow again, in essence, to act as a lender of last resort. Another popular notion (and one that is more common historically) is that a central bank exists to…

  • Modern Monetary Madness and King George III

    Susanne Lomatch
    9 May 2011 | 12:01 am
    Early American colonists fought a war of independence against the British economic tyranny espoused by King George III, his Parliament, and the Bank of England (BoE). The BoE, a “private” institution established in 1694, was set up to supply money to rebuild the British Navy after the battle of Beachy Head, as the Crown and its Parliament had run dry of public funds. Incorporated into the BoE Royal Charter from the start, the bank assumed special privileges for converting a portion of the sovereign debt into shares of “The Governor and Company of the BoE,” including the issuance of…

  • Commodity Malthusians and Inflation

    Susanne Lomatch
    7 Feb 2011 | 7:32 pm
    Commodity prices have risen dramatically over the last year, especially in basic agricultural commodities (grains, soy, cotton), certain industrial metals (copper, palladium, rare earth) and lumber. Concise evidence of this rise is seen in the CRB Index, a price index of 19 commodities, including many of those cited; this index has risen 26.3% over the last year, and 31.2% just since late August. Not coincidentally, on August 27, 2010, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave a speech announcing that a new round of targeted monetary quantitative easing measures were needed and to be…

  • We Should All Be Misesians Now

    Susanne Lomatch
    17 Oct 2009 | 8:50 pm
    Free market capitalism is under assault. Framed as the culprit for the global financial crisis by the popular media, politicians and ideological opportunists alike, who expediently blame the United States for igniting the crisis. The irony is that we haven’t had true free market capitalism in the U.S. for a very long time. Plagued with recurring financial panics, recessions and downright depressions, the real culprit is the federal government management of money and credit that is quite antithetical to free markets. Article I, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution clearly gives Congress the…
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    New Economy Articles and Blogs from YES! Magazine

  • Spanish Indignados Return to City Squares

    Ter Garcia
    15 May 2012 | 7:16 pm
    Tens of thousands celebrated the 15M movement's birthday in cities across Spain.<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/yes/new-economy/~4/nbJu0OSUQis" height="1" width="1"/>

  • The Bank Vs. America Showdown

    Mark Engler
    12 May 2012 | 12:51 am
    In shareholders’ meetings and in the streets, how 99% Power is taking on Bank of America.<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/yes/new-economy/~4/BKU4Ui56zes" height="1" width="1"/>

  • A Vision of America the Possible

    Gus Speth
    11 May 2012 | 12:38 pm
    Gus Speth imagines a compelling vision of a better, happier country—and how to make it possible.<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/yes/new-economy/~4/m2Ve_S-zYOo" height="1" width="1"/>

  • Move Our Money Month

    aharbin
    11 May 2012 | 12:34 pm
    Still haven’t moved your money out of Wall Street?<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/yes/new-economy/~4/sEAxI_2ehTI" height="1" width="1"/>

  • How I Found Happiness (in 130 Square Feet)

    Ella Jenkins
    11 May 2012 | 12:30 pm
    Photo Essay: Don’t think you know how to build your own house? Neither did 23-year-old Ella Jenkins before she picked up the tools and started.<img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/yes/new-economy/~4/CeCZmIzHrMQ" height="1" width="1"/>
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    Central Bank News

  • Central Bank News Link List - 16 May 2012

    centralbanknews.info
    16 May 2012 | 12:43 am
    Here's today's Central Bank News link list, click through if you missed the previous central bank news link list.  Remember, if you want to submit links for inclusion in the daily link list, just email them through to us or post them in the comments section below. Weak data, bank hikes led to cut: RBA (Business Spectator) Hungary c.bank to expand range of currencies to buy (Wall Street Journal) Indian Rupee rises on c.bank intervention (Loan Safe) New Fed rate forecasts can create conflict (NASDAQ) What China's rate cut rally means (Forbes) Europe does have a safety net: the…

  • Central Bank News Link List - 13 May 2012

    centralbanknews.info
    12 May 2012 | 11:55 pm
    Here's today's Central Bank News link list, click through if you missed the previous central bank news link list.  Remember, if you want to submit links for inclusion in the daily link list, just email them through to us or post them in the comments section below. Monetary Policy Week in Review (Central Bank News) The week ahead in central banking (Financial Times) PBOC Drops RRR by 50bps (Central Bank News) Bundesbank's Weidmann tells Hollande not to touch fiscal pact (AFP) ECB's Honohan says Greek exit manageable (Bloomberg) BOJ's Shirakawa warns against reckless…

  • People's Bank of China Cuts RRR 50 basis points

    centralbanknews.info
    12 May 2012 | 4:22 pm
    The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 50 basis point cut in the required reserve ratios (RRR) for deposit taking financial institutions, effective 18 May 2012.  The new required reserve ratios will average 20.00% for large banks, and 18.00% for small banks.  The move is expected to add as much as 400 billion yuan of liquidity to the financial system.  The move marks a continued shift in the policy bias to loosening, with the PBOC previously being content to use open market operations to adjust liquidity, in contrast to the higher profile RRR.The last…

  • Monetary Policy Week in Review - 12 May 2012

    centralbanknews.info
    11 May 2012 | 5:33 pm
    The past week in monetary policy saw three central banks announcing interest rate changes: Poland increased 25 basis points to 4.75%, Malawi hiked rates 300bps to 16.00%, while Belarus cut rates -200bps to 34.00%.  Those that held interest rates unchanged were: UK 0.50%, Russia 8.00%, Indonesia 5.75%, Korea 3.25%, Norway 1.50%, Malaysia 3.00%, Serbia 9.50%, Peru 4.25%, and Sri Lanka 7.75%. Elsewhere the People's Bank of China released its quarterly monetary policy report.Looking at the central bank calendar, the week ahead in monetary policy will be relatively quiet on the meeting…

  • April 2012 Headlines at Central Bank News

    centralbanknews.info
    11 May 2012 | 4:49 pm
    Following is a list of all the headlines on Central Bank News during the month of April. The month in central banking in April was relatively quiet, but with a couple of notable interest rate changes in emerging markets (Brazil -75bps to 9.00% and India -50bps to 8.00%, also Vietnam cut rates). In the quantitative easing space the UK, ECB, and US monetary authorities kept their asset purchase programs unchanged, while the Bank of Japan added another 5 trillion yen to its quantitative easing program.March 2012 Headlines at Central Bank News Central Bank News Link List - 1 April 2012Central…
 
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    StockResearchPortal.com Blog

  • Spain and Spanish Bank Dilemma!

    Ian R. Campbell
    14 May 2012 | 10:47 am
    Spain and Spanish Bank Dilemma! Why Read:  Because what is happening in Spain is happening quickly, may not be understood in a property valuation context, and may be a harbinger of things to come in other countries. Featured Articles:  Two May 11 articles raise further issues with Spain’s announcement last week that some of its banks are undercapitalized and have not made sufficient property loan provisions: the first article reported Friday that rather than inject equity into the banks it believes requires more capital, Spain plans to lend those banks money at high interest rates; and,…

  • Mining Cost Escalation – Impact?

    Ian R. Campbell
    11 May 2012 | 10:31 am
    Mining Cost Escalation – Impact? Why Read:  Because it is a good overview of some of the issues facing not just gold miners, but miners generally – all of which going forward will impact the share prices of those companies from what they otherwise might be. Featured Article:  A May 9 article speaks to the following issues that are affecting the cost structure of gold (and other) miners: the article reports on PriceWaterhouseCoopers study that suggests that in 2011 cost inflation experienced by miners generally fell in a range of 10% – 15%, and for gold miners viewed in isolation…

  • China Banking Camel In U.S. Tent?

    Ian R. Campbell
    10 May 2012 | 10:36 am
    China Banking Camel In U.S. Tent? Why Read:  Because you should know about this if you don’t, as China banks entry into U.S. banking could prove to be important. Featured Article:  A May 9 article reported that the U.S. Federal Reserve has agreed to let three Chinese Government controlled banks set up U.S. branches and invest in U.S. banks, referencing U.S. Federal Reserve statements that: the 71% Chinese Government owned Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (China’s biggest bank with assets estimated at U.S.$2.5 trillion) will become a bank holding company; China Investment…

  • No Alternative To Austerity

    Ian R. Campbell
    9 May 2012 | 10:35 am
    No Alternative To Austerity Why Read:  Because this is something you need to consider carefully as you listen to and read news reports from major media and internet pundits – and monitor world economic developments both in the near and longer term. Featured Article:  A May 9 article discusses demands, widely reported in the past 24 hours, by some German Government leaders that either Greece stay the course with negotiated austerity measures or be denied future international financial aid. Commentary:  This, along with other negative economic news and the aftermath of the May 6 French…

  • Marc Faber On Biased Views!

    Ian R. Campbell
    8 May 2012 | 10:42 am
    Marc Faber On Biased Views! Why read:  Because of the importance of continually focusing on possible and likely biases in mainstream and internet media. Featured Article:  Recently well known investor and regular blogger Marc Faber wrote a short article on the importance, when investing, trading, and generally thinking about world affairs, of understanding: different country specific perspectives; and, recognizing both reader and writer biases when reading and thinking about things found on the Internet in social media websites and blogs. Mr. Faber said:  “if I were convinced of my views…
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    Business Insider

  • These Cute Dogs Could Soon Sniff Out Oil For The Largest Energy Companies In The World

    Rob Wile
    16 May 2012 | 5:51 am
    Oil companies are contemplating deploying a low-tech but high-cute technology as they prepare for the looming arctic black gold rush:  Dogs. The Guardian reports that large oil companies like Shell plan to use canines, including dachsunds and border collies, to detect oil in remote areas and beneath snow and ice that would otherwise be undetectable.  In 2009, the Norwegian research group completed a study SINTEF completed a study proving the ' efficacy. They were able to locate spills up to 5 km away and (separately) as small as 400 mL. Shell has no immediate plans to…

  • A Day In The Life Of An Afghan General

    Geoffrey Ingersoll
    16 May 2012 | 5:47 am
    This is Part Two of a 4-part series built around The General, a legendary Afghan officer we previously introduced in a run-down of the cast of characters that Geoffrey Ingersoll is following while embedded at FOB Delaram. Geoffrey told us, " It was probably one of the hardest pieces of work I had to write. I felt like the military development went hand in hand with the economic ... and the simple fact is that one is moderately successful while the other is, well, not so much. It was a lot of information to process, but I wanted to give the reader at least a brief…

  • SMARTPHONE SALES: It's Now Apple And Samsung's Game To Lose--Everyone Else Is An Also-Ran

    Henry Blodget
    16 May 2012 | 5:45 am
    Gartner has released its Q1 mobile sales stats. Here are the key points: Mobile handset sales actually fell 2% globally in Q1 (year over year), from 428 million units to 419 million units. This was the result of weakness in Asia. Smartphone sales continue to surge, growing 45% year over year from 99 million units to 144 million. Smartphone sales now account for 34% of the global handset market. Android's market share of smartphone operating systems also continued to surge, hitting 56%. Apple, meanwhile, is the next-closest, with 33%. Android is so fragmented, however--with each smartphone…

  • AP FACT CHECK: Romney Is Massively Oversimplifying The Debt Crisis

    AP
    16 May 2012 | 5:40 am
    WASHINGTON (AP) — When Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney decried the "prairie fire" of U.S. debt Tuesday, he ignored some of the sparks that set it ablaze. One was the Great Recession that took hold before Barack Obama became president. That landmark event went unmentioned in Romney's speech. Another was a series of Bush-era tax cuts that Romney wants to follow with even lower rates. Instead he laid the blame on Obama, a president who has certainly increased the nation's eye-popping debt — but not, as Romney claimed, by nearly as much as all other presidents combined. A…

  • Facebook Will Add 85 Million Shares To IPO [REPORT]

    Seth Fiegerman
    16 May 2012 | 5:33 am
    The Facebook IPO keeps getting bigger by the day. CNBC reports hearing from a source that Facebook is now planning to add 85 million more shares to its public offering, bringing the total number to 422 million shares up from 337 million previously. That's about a 25% increase in the number of shares. Based on the expected price of IPO of between $34 to $38 a share, the extra shares would help the company raise a total of as much as $16 billion, though CNBC puts the grand total closer to $20 billion factoring in extra shares that may be sold by bankers after the IPO. An earlier report this…
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    The Conversation - Business + Economy

  • When it comes to solving the euro's woes, it's the same gold story

    Wesley Widmaier, Australian Research Council Future Fellow at Griffith University
    15 May 2012 | 11:08 pm
    Are the tragedies of the 1920s repeating themselves in the twenty-first century? In the 1920s, an irrational attachment to the gold standard helped cause the Great Depression, as European fears of inflation acted as a deadweight on growth. By the 1930s, economic collapse facilitated the rise of fascism, Nazism and World War II. While the Great Depression eventually broke the gold standard, enabling economic recovery, this would come too late for central Europe. In the current day, a similar attachment to the euro – again as a bulwark against inflation – risks a similar tragedy. Once…

  • Greeks to go back to the polls - and back on the edge

    Remy Davison, Senior Lecturer in International Relations, Deputy Director of the Monash European and EU Centre at Monash University
    15 May 2012 | 10:13 pm
    “I don’t envisage, not even for one second, Greece leaving the euro area. This is nonsense; this is propaganda.” That’s Jean-Claude Juncker, Prime Minister of Luxembourg, chairman of the Eurogroup, speaking after Monday’s EU finance ministers' meeting. Not given to half-measures, Juncker added: “The exit of Greece out of the euro was not the subject of our debate today. Absolutely no one, absolutely no one, argued in that sense.” The global media is agog with speculation about what appears to be Greece’s Eurozone death throes. Like a car crash about to happen, one can’t…

  • Hollande and Merkel: breaking up is hard to do

    Binoy Kampmark, Lecturer in Global Studies, Social Science &Planning at RMIT University
    15 May 2012 | 8:30 pm
    Europe is in economic dire straits and the two most powerful economies on the continent are, at least on paper, led by individuals with considerable differences. The previous French President Nicolas Sarkozy was not merely regarded as a man of austerity, but a man who Chancellor Angela Merkel could do business with. The Sarkozy-Merkel imprint marks the entire bailout strategy that is now being employed against the Greeks. It is a model that has ushered in technocratic governments whose loyalties lie less to the citizen than the budget. Balancing accounts and paying creditors is considered the…

  • Wicked problems and business strategy: is design thinking an answer?

    Danielle Logue, Lecturer in Strategy & Innovation at University of Technology, Sydney
    15 May 2012 | 3:02 pm
    Obesity. Climate change. Brain drain. Tax havens. War in Afghanistan. All have been described as “wicked problems”. UC Berkeley scholars, Rittel and Webber, coined the term in 1973 when they were reacting to urban planning challenges, a frustrating process that was attempting to find scientific bases to social problems. Wicked problems were described by systems scientist and philosopher C. West Churchman as “a class of social system problems, which are ill-formulated; where the information is confusing; where there are many clients and decision makers with conflicting values; and where…

  • Scientific research spending lags behind smaller countries

    Justin Norrie, Editor
    15 May 2012 | 10:20 am
    Nations half the size of Australia spend more on scientific research, have higher employment levels for scientists, and greater appeal to foreign investors, according to a report on Australia’s global standing in science. Although Australia’s rate of spending on research and development is greater than in France, Canada and Britain, it remains well below the rate in smaller Scandinavian nations, according to the report, commissioned by Australia’s chief scientist, Ian Chubb, and released today. The author, Alan Pettigrew, an Adjunct Professor at the College of Medicine, Biology and…
 
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    Mindful Money » Shaun Richards

  • Spain’s latest economic data shows us that her leaders were “Too Blind To See It”

    Shaun Richards
    16 May 2012 | 5:21 am
    One of the ironies of the crisis which has engulfed the Euro is that summits which are presented as solutions to the crisis in fact have become triggers for it getting worse! Unfortunately Europe’s leaders have not figured out this basic fact yet and have given us another example of inflation by increasing the number of summits. The latest which has already been christened Homer was between the new President of France Monsieur Hollande and the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and yes it has had the same effect. Government bond yields in the peripheral Euro nations are falling and we may…

  • Jonathan Portes (NIESR) and I agree the UK can borrow cheaply but we need to account for all of the costs

    Shaun Richards
    15 May 2012 | 5:07 am
    One of the features of the credit crunch era has been the rise in price of what are considered to be “safe haven” assets. We have seen this in currency markets for example with the rise of the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen which has overrun the efforts of their respective central banks to stop it. More recently we have seen in in the surge in prices in some  government bond markets which allow those governments which benefit from this to borrow at what I consider to be extraordinarily low levels. What are the levels? If we consider ten-year government bond yields we see that…

  • Greece’s latest public finance figures show that the current medicine is not working

    Shaun Richards
    14 May 2012 | 5:16 am
    As we open this week we find that yet again Greece is the word,with apologies to Frankie Valli. Markets are increasingly worried about a Greek exit from the Euro and the consequences of it. This is true throughout Europe and we have seen the Eurofirst 300 equity index drop some 1.45% to 1007 so far today,so it may potentially flirt with the 1000 level. In Greece itself the Athens General Stock Exchange Index has dropped some 3% to below the 600 level as it is now at 592. If we look back to when Greece joined the Euro it was over 6000 and no I haven’t put in an extra zero by mistake.

  • JP Morgan’s difficulties remind us that there is still something rotten in the state of world banking

    Shaun Richards
    11 May 2012 | 5:07 am
    Last night we received yet more confirmation that there is something rotten in the world’s banking industry and added to it was the reminder that problems spread beyond the Euro zone. The American bank JP Morgan hastily arranged a conference call and such matters send a chill down the spine as good news is not spread hastily. Even before the call began my thoughts turned to the Chief Investment Office of the bank which places very large trades and under the leadership of Bruno Iskil has become known as the London Whale. Rumous have been swirling about problems at the London Whale for…

  • The merry go round from the ECB to the EFSF and back barely touches Greece and her borders

    Shaun Richards
    10 May 2012 | 5:06 am
    Yesterday there was an example of a political and media furore over the matter of a 5.2 billion Euro payment from Europe to Greece due today. In essence some Euro officials were attempting to threaten Greece and much of the mainstream media followed them like lap dogs. But this payment and the paper tiger threat surrounding it illustrate nicely some of the themes of this blog and also allow me to address a subject I often get asked about which is the monetary merry-go round of the Euro zone “rescue” system. So in best Play School fashion if you are sitting comfortably I shall…
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    The Best Rates Today's Banks Mortgage Loans Interest

  • Sleepwalking rates in US much higher than expected

    The Best Rates
    15 May 2012 | 12:22 pm
    Nearly one in three Americans may experience an episode of sleepwalking in their lives, according to a new study. The study also found that 3.6 percent of people sleepwalk regularly much higher than the .04 percent of people in the population who suffer from narcolepsy.Put into perspective, 8.5 million people are concerned [who frequently sleepwalk], said study author Dr. Maurice Ohayon with Stanford University in Palo Alto, Calif. The problem is not so much with the rare cases. There are a huge number of people who have had regular, frequent sleepwalking during the past year.The researchers…

  • Distinguished Minneapolis Attorney Goes Solo And Reduces Rates

    The Best Rates
    14 May 2012 | 11:20 am
    MINNEAPOLIS, May 14, 2012 /PRNewswire-iReach/ -- After 23 years of working "for the man", Attorney Rich Hechter opens his own firm with the mission statement of allowing Minnesotans to have top-notch and board certified attorney representation, withoutthe "rack" rates many can't afford. "There are so many people out there who need quality representation and simply can't afford it", Hechter comments. "Attorneys fees have gotten out-of-hand...I don't think many attorneys could afford to hire themselves..."For years, Hechter tried to get his old firm to be flexible on fees. His requests always…

  • George Mason Mortgage Opens Office in Baltimore

    The Best Rates
    14 May 2012 | 11:17 am
    BALTIMORE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- GEORGE MASON MORTGAGE, a subsidiary of Cardinal Bank (NASDAQ: CFNL - News), is pleased to announce the opening of a new mortgage office in Baltimore, Maryland. George Mason Mortgages first Baltimore area location will be managed by lifelong Baltimore resident Brad Gibbons. An alumnus of Loyola High School and Towson University, Gibbons brings over 29 years of mortgage lending experience and regional expertise to this new office. We are excited to expand our lending area into Baltimore County, said Jim Foley, Executive Vice President of Sales (MD). We are confident…

  • Why it's time for higher interest rates

    The Best Rates
    11 May 2012 | 10:25 am
    Progressives, led by Paul Krugman, believe that you can fix the economic woes with more consumer debt and higher inflation. The reality is that near zero interest rates encourage speculation, discourage savings, weaken grant funds, and put millions of baby boomers at risk.By Sheila BairFORTUNE -- In the late 1800's, coal mine barons found no shortage of ways to maximize profits at the expense of their workers. Miners were paid subsistence wages then required to shop at the notorious "company stores" where they were sold over-priced goods on abusive credit terms. As time passed, coal-mining…

  • Mortgage giant Halifax raises rates despite base rate freeze

    The Best Rates
    11 May 2012 | 10:22 am
    By Lauren Thompson and Simon LambertPUBLISHED:02:11 EST, 11 May 2012 | UPDATED:05:46 EST, 11 May 2012Halifax, Britains biggest mortgage lender, yesterday increased its rates, despite the Bank of England keeping the base rate at 0.5 per cent for the 38th month in a row.It is the latest in a round of rate hikes that has seen the cost of the best new mortgages rise substantially in just a few months, with around 0.5 per cent added to top deals.The bank increased mortgage rates by up to 0.3 percentage points, adding 27 a month to a typical 150,000 loan. On the rise: Britain's biggest mortgage…
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    SurvivalBlog.com

  • Note From JWR:

    Jim Rawles
    15 May 2012 | 11:17 pm
    Today we present two more entries for Round 40 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include: First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner's choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift…

  • An Introductory How To Guide to Wild Herbal Medicine, by P. Farms Mike

    Jim Rawles
    15 May 2012 | 11:16 pm
    DISCLAIMER:  I am not a medical professional.  All advice given in this article should be discussed with your doctor before attempting to use them.  Please be cautious that all plants that you use have been properly identified before using them medically. After a societal collapse, no matter the cause, store bought medicine will disappear.  If you are like my wife and I you have stored up medicines along with your food, water, and all the rest.  However, if the collapse will be long term then sooner or later you are going to run out of medicine.  About a year…

  • Cycling Into TEOTWAWKI, by MineT

    Jim Rawles
    15 May 2012 | 11:15 pm
    Cycling has many facets that could attract people preparing for the time when the comforts we have been so accustom to are no longer available. Pick your scenario for the drastic change in our future and a bicycle might be able to handle some of the chores that a computer controlled fossil fuel vehicle may no longer be capable of. If the family car is incapacitated, how will you get from point A to point B? But one can't expect to just shell out some money on a human powered urban assault vehicle, and one day just pick it up and head out towards the burning horizon as if it’s a normal…

  • Three Letters Re: Commercial Storage Space Thievery

    Jim Rawles
    15 May 2012 | 11:14 pm
    Hi Jim, To follow up on the recent letter on Commercial Storage Space Thievery, I had a very similar experience with my storage locker.  I have a locker from Public Storage in Saratoga, California and had the very same thing happen.  I checked out my unit one night and another lock was on the unit.  I had the Sheriff come by and they did the usual.  The problem I am having presently is the insurance company hasn't really done much and its been three months [since I discovered the theft.]  I had all the receipts from Amazon.com and Costco.com so that isn't the…

  • Letter Re: Deep Concealment Holsters

    Jim Rawles
    15 May 2012 | 11:13 pm
    Dear Field Gear Editor: I respectfully disagree with the use of the  Deep Concealed Carry Holster for most people who carry concealed firearms.  Gun fights happen in seconds and taking the time to rip open a shirt and cross draw may not be fast enough to survive.  However, anyone carrying a concealed  firearm should be well versed  in the concept of situational awareness and be prepared well in advanced that the use of a weapon may be needed.  Another problem with a cross draw in a highly stressful situation is the heightened possibility of muzzle flashing …
 
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    Trading Heroes

  • How To Build A Forex Trading Strategy From The Ground Up – Part 2 of 3

    Hugh
    14 May 2012 | 4:18 pm
    In the last post, I went over how to find Forex trading strategies to test.  Most of the time, inexperienced traders just jump in and start trading a strategy they just learned with real money.  Big mistake!Here is what you should to next:Test it until it is obvious…Become the Mad Scientist of ForexNow that you have learned a strategy (or invented one), it is now time to test it.  This is where people usually get tripped out.  Remember that little thing called work that I was talking about before?Whoomp, here it is.But this is what separates the tadpoles from the frogs.  A lot of…

  • How To Build A Forex Trading Strategy From The Ground Up – Part 1 of 3

    Hugh
    11 May 2012 | 4:18 pm
    I have sort of alluded to or whispered about this process here and there in a variety of posts over the years, but I want to finally put all this information in one place because I feel that this process really is the cornerstone of profitable trading.This series will outline what I believe is the best way to go from learning a trading strategy (or having a strategy idea), to thoroughly testing it, to finally being have the confidence to take it live.  Just to clarify, we are going to be testing discretionary (manual) strategies, not automated ones (EAs, robots, trading programs).Will this…

  • What is One of Your Big Whys? (+Two of Mine)

    Hugh
    9 May 2012 | 11:18 pm
    Trading isn’t just about making a ton of money.  Like I mentioned in this post, it is about the experiences you are able to have as a result of the money you make through your trading skills.  So in today’s post, we are going to go through a quick exercise that will get you excited to reach your life goals so they keep you disciplined and focused on trading the very best you can.I hope you find this energizing and puts you on the right track.  Every so often, I have to take a step back and do this exercise because I find myself getting caught up in things that don’t…

  • April 2012 Month End Review

    Hugh
    2 May 2012 | 8:04 am
    Hello Traders…where did April go?  It was a pretty busy month and I’m just catching up.  There is just one more trade that I have to update for my log.  Before I get into that, I’ll do a quick recap of the highlights of this month.I didn’t do a whole lot of blogging because I’ve been working on a community (launching this month), but here are the top three:Interviewed Pro Trader Adam Jowett and found out how he became a professional trader WITHOUT a mentor.Posted (what I consider) the Ultimate Free Education Resource if you are looking to learn a lot about…

  • A Mobile Phone App That Might Finally Allow You To Leave Your Laptop At Home

    Hugh
    1 May 2012 | 3:01 am
    As long as we can remember, we have hoped for the ability to truly trade Forex completely on our phones (or maybe it is just me).  That means spending weeks at a time away from your desktop or not needing to carry around a bulky laptop with internet access.Who would have thought that there would be a day when we actually started calling laptops “bulky.”But alas, every new offering from brokers and third parties alike, have been pretty much the same ol’ same ol’.  Trade execution has never really been the issue (in my experience). That has usually been pretty…
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    OpenMarkets

  • Why We Need Speculators

    Gary Morsches
    15 May 2012 | 10:50 am
      We’ve frequently seen the role of commodity speculators questioned this spring while gasoline and crude oil prices rose. But now that crude prices have dropped  9 percent in May, where does the argument against speculation stand? Mark Perry makes this point on his Carpe Diem blog:  Since oil speculators got the blame for rising prices in February, do they now get the credit for falling oil prices in May?  How exactly does the “speculators cause high oil prices” crowd now explain the falling oil prices?  Do speculators somehow contribute to only rising prices, but not…

  • Is a Bailout Ahead for Spain? Just Look to Ireland

    Megan Greene
    14 May 2012 | 11:43 pm
    Watching developments in Spain since the beginning of April has been a source of non-stop déjà vu for anyone who watched events unfold in Ireland in 2010. There are a number of striking similarities between the position in which the Spanish government now finds itself and the Irish government’s situation just before it was forced into an EU/IMF bailout program in November 2010. Based on Ireland’s experience, a bailout for Spain seems inevitable. The trifecta of problems In the pre-crisis years, both Ireland and Spain allowed their public finances to become reliant on property bubbles…

  • The OpenMarkets Weekly Roundup

    Anita Liskey
    11 May 2012 | 5:32 pm
    It’s been a week focused on a governing coalition in Greece and JP Morgan. Those stories will continue, but there are several other pieces of news  and analysis that are also worth watching and reading as we head into the weekend:   “China is a well-oiled machine when it comes to projecting its interests globally” OPEC pushes up oil production to the highest level since 2008 Why has the recovery in employment in the US been so slow? Why some entrepreneurs are planning to leave France following last weekend’s elections. “The economy is on track for 3 percent growth.”…

  • Impact of the Seaway Pipeline Reversal

    Gary Morsches
    11 May 2012 | 2:53 pm
      Next week, the Seaway pipeline between Cushing, Oklahoma and the Gulf of Mexico will reverse, directing 150,000 barrels of oil per day (400,000 by 2013) from the bottleneck at Cushing to the Gulf.  As my colleague Dan Brusstar wrote last November after the initial announcement, this is major change to the North American oil complex that will enhance the value and global availability of West Texas Intermediate crude. Jim Teague, COO of Enterprise Product Partners who owns the pipeline, was on the floor of the NYMEX yesterday talking with traders about the reversal and the affect it…

  • Experts Discuss USDA Supply and Demand Estimates

    OpenMarkets
    10 May 2012 | 2:13 pm
    Following the release of  the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) this morning, CME Group hosted a panel of experts on the Chicago trading floor who discussed the findings in the report and its implications for the grains and oilseeds markets. Jerry Gidel of Rice Dairy, Jack Scoville of the Price Futures Group, and Jerrod Kitt of the Linn Group shared their perspective on the corn, soybean, and wheat markets. Some of their thoughts from the panel discussion: CORN The report today projected higher yields for corn, raising the projection to 166 bushels per acre, up…
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    azizonomics

  • Drone Warfare in America

    Aziz
    15 May 2012 | 9:05 am
    What would Obama supporters think if they learned that their beloved President was running far-to-the-authoritarian-right of arch-hawk Charles Krauthammer on one particular civil liberties issue? Sadly, the answer is that most Obama supporters probably wouldn’t feel very much at all, because support for Obama has always been predominantly emotion-driven (he promised change “you can believe in”, not “change that I can logically convince you will be beneficial“). But I digress. Charles Krauthammer weighed in on FOX yesterday to telegraph his opposition to bringing…

  • The New European Serfdom

    Aziz
    14 May 2012 | 11:16 am
    So let’s assume Greece is going to leave the Eurozone and suffer the consequences of default, exit, capital controls, a deposit freeze, the drachmatization of euro claims, and depreciation. It’s going to be a painful time for the Greek people. But what about for Greece’s highly-leveraged creditors, who must now bite the bullet of a disorderly default? Surely the ramifications of a Greek exit will be worse for the international financial system? J.P. Morgan — fresh from putting an LTCM alumnus in charge of a $70 trillion derivatives book (good luck with that) — is upping…

  • Can Banking Regulation Prevent Stupidity?

    Aziz
    13 May 2012 | 1:00 pm
    In the wake of J.P. Morgan’s epic speculatory fail a whole lot of commentators are talking about regulation. And yes — this was speculation — if Dimon gets to call these activities “hedging portfolio risk“, then I have the right to go to Vegas, play the Martingale roulette system, and happily call it “hedging portfolio risk” too, because hey — the Martingale system always wins in theory. From Bloomberg: The Volcker rule, part of the Dodd-Frank financial reform law, was inspired by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker. It’s supposed to stop…

  • Double or Nothing: How Wall Street is Destroying Itself

    Aziz
    12 May 2012 | 11:24 am
    There’s nothing controversial about the claim— reported on by Slate, Bloomberg and Harvard Magazine — that in the last 20 years Wall Street has moved away from an investment-led model, to a gambling-led model. This was exemplified by the failure of LTCM which blew up unsuccessfully making huge interest rate bets for tiny profits, or “picking up nickels in front of a streamroller”, and by Jon Corzine’s MF Global doing practically the same thing with European debt (while at the same time stealing from clients). As Nassim Taleb described in The Black Swanthis…

  • Does Jamie Dimon Even Know What Hedging Risk Is?

    Aziz
    11 May 2012 | 4:25 am
    From Bloomberg: J.P Morgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said the firm suffered a $2 billion trading loss after an “egregious” failure in a unit managing risks, jeopardizing Wall Street banks’ efforts to loosen a federal ban on bets with their own money. The firm’s chief investment office, run by Ina Drew, 55, took flawed positions on synthetic credit securities that remain volatile and may cost an additional $1 billion this quarter or next, Dimon told analysts yesterday. Losses mounted as JPMorgan tried to mitigate transactions designed to hedge credit exposure. Having…
 
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    What is Economics?

  • Clinton declares energy management to be “good economics”

    chase
    15 May 2012 | 11:19 pm
    Energy management refers to the process of scrutinizing, managing, and saving energy in a building or institution. This typically involves measuring your energy consumption and looking for options to save that energy. Much of the significance of energy saving plans originates from the global requirement to save energy. This universal need affects power costs and emission targets, both of which lead to a number of gripping reasons why you need to save energy. According to Bill Clinton, the former President of America, the most effectual way to look after the environment is to show that it…

  • The Global Stock Market’s Susceptibility To Change [Study]

    chase
    9 Apr 2012 | 5:33 pm
    A new study, written by Dave Berger of Oregon State University and Kuntara Pukthuanthong of San Diego State University, may give fiscal policymakers a valuable tool for assessing the likelihood of major global economic losses. The study looks at common risk exposures for numerous international equity markets to determine the likelihood of losses in global stock market. These risks were compiled with information about stock market changes, which allowed researchers to see correlations between various international markets during loss periods. The study’s resulting “fragility…

  • Market Exchange Rules Responsible for Wealth Concentration and How Physics Can Fix Them [Study]

    chase
    11 Mar 2012 | 6:25 pm
    Amid continuing concerns about the concentration of wealth in a tiny minority of investors, Brazilian physicists have borrowed principles from their own discipline to explain the phenomenon and suggest ways to prevent it. According to J. Roberto Iglesias and Rita de Almeida, both of the Brazilian National Institute of Science and Technology of Complex Systems, what many have long suspected is true: The cards are stacked against poorer investors. However, Iglesias and de Almeida suggest that it is possible to change market exchange rules to ensure a more even playing field. According to the…

  • Risk Tolerance Linked to Age and State of Economy [Study]

    chase
    27 Jan 2012 | 1:47 pm
    In the current troubled United States economy, many investors have become more cautious about investing in the stock market. Often, this caution leads to unwise investment strategies, according to a new study from the University of Missouri that was published in the Journal of Socio-Economics. Researchers have determined that age and the state of the economy have a direct impact on investors’ willingness to take financial risks. According to investigator Rui Yao, an investor’s risk tolerance tends to get lower with increasing age. This is partially because people who are retired or…

  • Hedge Fund Managers Using Insider Information for Personal Gain [Study]

    chase
    17 Jan 2012 | 9:50 pm
    When it comes to high finance, most people approve of stock brokers and investment fund managers having a personal stake in the funds they invest as an incentive to act in the best interests of investors. However, a new study by researchers from Boston College and EDHEC Business School in France reveals how such a setup can backfire. Share-restricted hedge fund managers who invest in their own funds often use insider knowledge to protect their own holdings first, leading to lower returns for other investors. The purpose of hedge funds is to generate high returns for shareholders, even in the…
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    eWallstreeter

  • Fed Watch: FOMC Minutes

    16 May 2012 | 3:08 am
    Tim Duy: FOMC Minutes, by Tim Duy: The FOMC minutes are released tomorrow. Calculated Risk gives us the Goldman Sachs preview: We expect that the April FOMC minutes ... will include a discussion of possible easing options. ... The first... - Selected by eWallstreeter.com -

  • Portugal Looks Back On 1 Year Since Its Bailout

    16 May 2012 | 3:00 am
    Uncertainty in Greece is rattling nerves in other European economies worried about a domino effect, if Athens were to leave the euro. Among those is Portugal. Wednesday marks one year since that country received a 103 billion dollar bailout. Reporter Lauren Frayer has more on how Portugal is faring. - Selected by eWallstreeter.com -

  • The Latest On Greece's Financial Crisis

    16 May 2012 | 3:00 am
    Government talks in Greece ended badly after the president invited the leaders of five parties to try to form a coalition. Meanwhile, analysts, economists and several European politicians are talking about a Grexit — a Greek exit from the eurozone — as being inevitable. - Selected by eWallstreeter.com -

  • Economic Behavior: The Effects of Individual Genetic Variants are Tiny

    16 May 2012 | 2:42 am
    There was recently some discussion of "genoeconomics": ...the idea that genes had an important role to play in decision-making was largely abandoned in the world of economics. But with the completion of the Human Genome Project in 2000, the first... - Selected by eWallstreeter.com -

  • Note to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at The Telegraph: You Have Excellent Insight as to What is Happening and Why, But Please Get a Grip on Reality as to Solutions

    16 May 2012 | 2:37 am
    Once again, I sadly report that Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at The Telegraph hits the nail on the head as to what is happening, yet cannot hit the broadside of a barn with a shotgun from 15 feet in regards to the solution. It really pains me to see excellent analysis go straight into the toilet with hopeless proposals to problems at hand. Please consider Appetiser cost of Greek exit is €155bn for Germany, France: trillions for meat course by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. Eric Dor's team at the IESEG School of Management in Lille has put together a table on the direct costs to Germany and France if…
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    The Monetary Future

  • Bitcoin Funded Debit Cards

    12 May 2012 | 11:09 am
    By Jon Matonis Forbes Monday, May 7, 2012 http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/05/07/bitcoin-funded-debit-cards/ Yes, it's entirely possible to fund your existing debit card, or credit card, with your accumulated bitcoin. And I don't mean that you are shipped a generic, low-limit prepaid VISA or Mastercard from some anonymous reseller. I mean that you convert bitcoin online to dollars or euros and the funds are available to spend with a card that you are most likely already holding in your wallet. Why is this so significant? It's important because it leverages a little-known type of…

  • Robert Wenzel to Federal Reserve: “Leave the Building to the Four-Legged Rats”

    5 May 2012 | 4:28 am
    By Jon Matonis Forbes Monday, April 30, 2012 http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/04/30/robert-wenzel-to-federal-reserve-leave-the-building-to-the-four-legged-rats/ Somebody finally turned on the lights at the Fed. As a regular subscriber to Wenzel's Economic Policy Journal, I enjoyed reading the full text of  Bob's landmark speech to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York last Wednesday. Kudos to Bob on garnering the invitation in the first place. Scott Horton joked on his radio program that it must have been like showing a card trick to a dog (in the words of Bill…

  • Be Your Own Bank: Bitcoin Wallet for Apple

    30 Apr 2012 | 11:00 pm
    By Jon Matonis Forbes Thursday, April 26, 2012 http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/04/26/be-your-own-bank-bitcoin-wallet-for-apple/ Have you ever wanted to be your own bank? There's an app for that. With the new Blockchain bitcoin wallet for Apple’s iPhone, iPad, and iPod touch, anyone can emulate the functionality of a bank. Simply download the free app from the App Store and you have a fully-functioning send and receive online wallet that allows value transfer without the need for a bank or other financial intermediary. This is the proper path to a cashless society!

  • CoinLab Attracts $500,000 in Venture Capital for Bitcoin Projects

    28 Apr 2012 | 11:00 pm
    By Jon Matonis Forbes Tuesday, April 24, 2012 http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/04/24/coinlab-attracts-500000-in-venture-capital-for-bitcoin-projects/ In the first official venture capital raise for a direct investment in bitcoin, CoinLab secured $500,000 today from seed stage Silicon Valley firm Draper Associates and others, including Seattle angel investor Geoff Entress, former assistant treasurer at Microsoft Jack Jolley, and familiar bitcoin investor Roger Ver. Jolley will also join the company as its Chief Financial Officer. Based in Seattle, CoinLab is an…

  • The Death of All Banking Freedom?

    28 Apr 2012 | 9:53 am
    By Wendy McElroy Future of Freedom Foundation Tuesday, April 24, 2012 http://www.fff.org/comment/com1204p.asp Last week, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) extended its reach and tightened its grip on every cent Americans earn or try to preserve anywhere in the world. The final regulations of the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) were announced. Enacted in March 2010 as part of the Hiring Incentives to Restore Employment (HIRE) Act, FATCA seeks to have foreign financial institutions report on accounts held by any American living in the United States or abroad. You can take your money…
 
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    richardblundell.net

  • Why we love being locked-in to the Apple ecosystem

    Richard
    6 May 2012 | 4:17 am
    Apple's genius has been to create an eco-system where customers lock themselves in. Devices that work together, content that can only be used on supported devices, and free file sharing through the cloud binds people happily to Apple.

  • Binging on TV, snacking on music – how technology is changing our media consumption

    Richard
    6 May 2012 | 2:55 am
    This weekend I listened to a CD for the first time in six months and found going through a whole album from start to end oddly refreshing. Our media consumption habits have changed - we pick music tracks out like tapas, while gorging on an entire season of a TV show

  • How TV content rights are surviving the technology threat

    Richard
    28 Apr 2012 | 9:50 pm
    Copyright law has stopped or at least paused the convergence of TV and mobile with the Australian high court ruling that Optus cannot broadcast near live sport over its mobile network. The firming of the boundaries between media channels is a great opportunity for content owners.

  • Why market leaders fall, why challengers rise

    Richard
    25 Apr 2012 | 7:27 am
    What topples successful companies off their perch? How does momentum shift from the leader to the challenger? Recently we have seen this being played out in supermarket retail with Tesco and Woolworths showing signs that dominance of their respective markets is beginning to crumble

  • Internet allows British newspapers to become genuinely global

    Richard
    21 Mar 2012 | 7:03 am
    We all know that technology is killing the traditional newspaper, but more surprising is news that the internet versions of several newspapers have found a much wider market.
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    The Last Embassy

  • Upon Further Review: a residential housing market with shadow market of foreclosures -or- a total eclipse of foreclosures?

    W.E. Heasley
    15 May 2012 | 4:04 am
    John B. Taylor in his book Getting Off Track : How Government Actions and Interventions Caused, Prolonged, and Worsened the Financial Crisis makes the grand observation that the financial crisis was a government lead failure. That government policy, or more succinctly politico policy, set the stage for shenanigans that occurred in the private sector leading to the financial crisis. (1)

  • Providing a Public Good or a Public Bad?

    W.E. Heasley
    14 May 2012 | 4:01 am
    Robert Higgs of the Independent Institute published a very insightful essay recently regarding “hatred” in politics and hatred among politicos entitled The Systematic Organization of Hatreds: “In view of the foregoing, we are well advised to consider that whenever we seek to move a type of decision-making from private life to the realm of politics and government, we are very likely moving

  • April 2012 Jobs Report: a jobs situation which is an abysmal failure of monumental proportions.

    W.E. Heasley
    9 May 2012 | 6:22 am
    ‘Mr. Obama argues that the economy is recovering slowly from a deep recession, and Congress should do more to spur growth. On Friday, he noted that the report continued more than two years' worth of job growth, while acknowledging the lingering weakness. "After the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, our businesses have now created more than 4.2 million new jobs over the last

  • Upon Further Review: The ObamaCare Argument of Private Health Insurance Monopolies Rebuked

    W.E. Heasley
    7 May 2012 | 7:17 am
    Please recall for a moment an argument used during the ObamaCare debate: There is a serious lack of competition among health insurers within the differing and several states. That is, the debate point implicitly and explicitly alluded to many [if not all] states having one insurer dominating the market. Examples such as Hawaii, Maine, Vermont, Alabama and Arkansas were mention where one

  • “Social Darwinism”: The Political Spectrum’s Fungible Taking Point

    W.E. Heasley
    2 May 2012 | 3:30 am
    “In remarks later Tuesday, President Barack Obama will slam the Republican budget plan put forward by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) as "nothing but thinly veiled Social Darwinism." "It's a Trojan Horse," Obama will say during remarks at an Associated Press Luncheon, according to excerpts released by the White House. "Disguised as [a] deficit reduction plan, it's really an attempt to impose a
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    Columbia Business School: Ideas At Work RSS

  • Accounting and Systemic Risk

    30 Apr 2012 | 4:07 pm
    The onset of the financial crisis in 2008 brought greater attention to the need to understand systemic risk — the risk that weaknesses in one firm or sector of the economy will set off domino-style, successive failures in connected sectors, sending the broader economy reeling. While measures such as value at risk, or VAR, a technique used to assess the risk of loss on any given set of assets, are available to monitor risk at individual firms, such measures are limited. especially for assessing system-wide risk. And regulators and investors use their own means of interpreting firm…

  • Holding On to Options

    30 Apr 2012 | 1:49 pm
    Firms often offer equity shares to their senior managers, a form of compensation traditionally viewed as incentive pay that spurs managers not only to work hard to maximize the value of their firm but also to take the entrepreneurial risks that shareholders prefer. A common form of equity compensation is to provide options — that is, the opportunity to buy shares at a set price, or strike price , which can be exercised at any time — rather than to provide shares themselves. For example, a manager with the option to buy a security at $100 per share need only wait for the option to…

  • The Shifting C-Suite

    30 Apr 2012 | 1:44 pm
    The C-suite is getting crowded, with top management teams doubling in size since the mid-1980s. And it’s not just the size that’s changed, says Professor Maria Guadalupe — the composition of top management has changed as well, with some important considerations for organizations to heed. Working with Hongyi Li of MIT and Julie Wulf of Harvard, Guadalupe has shown that the growth of the C-suite is largely the result of a disproportionate move away from general managers and toward specialized functional managers. “Most positions reporting to the CEO used to play a…

  • Design of Effective Obesity Communications: Insights from Consumer Research

    27 Apr 2012 | 10:26 am
    As Americans’ serving portions, appetites, and waist lines grow ever larger, marketing’s role in spurring the obesity problem is increasingly questioned because marketing activities have a direct impact on eating habits. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, more than one-third of US adults are considered obese, and research shows that overexposure to advertisements featuring high-calorie foods encourages overeating and obesity. For many, the problem starts early: the Federal Communications Commission states that the average American child views more than…

  • Making More Room in ICUs

    30 Mar 2012 | 9:18 am
    When a patient needs the highest level of medical care, a hospital’s intensive care unit (ICU) offers crucial life saving resources. But ICUs are among the most in-demand units at hospitals, with a constrained number of beds available. Adding ICU capacity is neither quick nor cheap, and hospitals must prioritize treatment with the ICU beds and nurse staffing they have on hand. To make room for new ICU patients, existing ICU patients are sometimes transferred to other units that are not designed for intensive care before it is medically optimal. So-called demand-driven discharges…
 
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    The Traders Crucible

  • Morning Caffeine 5-12-2012

    TC
    12 May 2012 | 7:41 am
    Chesapeake’s Weird Bonds: Borrow $$$, Pay Natural Gas Interest Chris Cook believes the Saudis are doing the same thing with oil Does Modern Finance Require “Hulk Smash” Regulation? Scumbag Facebook Co-Founder Saverin Flips the Bird to the People who made him $2.3 Billion Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

  • Morning Caffeine 5-11-2012

    TC
    11 May 2012 | 8:25 am
    The Long Decline of The London Economist | Ron Unz – Writings and Perspectives Ron Unz is…worth reading.  tags: interesting Unz economics Pravda "When Half a Million Americans Died and Nobody Noticed" | Ron Unz – Writings and Perspectives This is astounding. I don’t even know what to say about it. Bond-CDS Negative Basis or How to Lose a Billion Dollars on a Trade « A Credit Trader Quote of the Day: The Rich Should Favor Stimulus | Mother Jones I’m getting quoted all over! Dramatic Appreciation Of Gold Is Limiting It’s Upside –…

  • Morning Caffeine 5-10-2012

    TC
    10 May 2012 | 5:02 am
    The Modern Monetary Theory Trader: Fed lending to the Treasury? Must read article: "Congress should consider providing the Federal Reserve the explicit authority to lend directly to Treasury as a last resort when other options are not viable during a wide-scale disruption. Developing a direct draw authority would require careful consideration and determination of design features and any other requirements to support Treasury’s need for an effective funding source, the Federal Reserve’s independence, and congressional oversight and accountability concerns. An approach that…

  • Morning Caffeine 5-8-2012

    TC
    8 May 2012 | 5:58 am
    The Agony Of American Infrastructure Deployment Cleveland Fed Estimates of Inflation Expectations :: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Inflation expectations at an all time low.  The Oil Drum | After The Gold Rush: A Perspective on Future U.S. Natural Gas Supply and Price Don’t you just see a buy, buy, buy on drillers? Econbrowser: The War on Data Collection ] have always had to fight for more funding. Now they may have to fight just to keep their budgets intact. As part of $19 billion in nondefense discretionary cuts in Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) budget—recently passed by…

  • Morning Caffeine 4-30-2012

    TC
    1 May 2012 | 6:18 am
    ETH – Entrepreneurial Risks – The Financial Crisis: How Much Longer and Deeper? tags: financial crisis 26 Sexy Halloween Costumes That Shouldn’t Exist | Cracked.com Nothing says sexy like Big Bird’s shrunken, disembodied head casually eating the skull of a delusional 80s pop star who’s checking her shoe for dog turds. tags: halloween costumes 6 Disturbing Unanswered Questions from Children’s Movies | Cracked.com See what I mean? 5 Ways to Spot a B.S. Political Story in Under 10 Seconds | Cracked.com The best headlines in the biz. MMP Blog 48: IS THE JOB…
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    Modern Monetary Realism

  • John Boehner to Play Chicken with the US Economy….

    Cullen Roche
    15 May 2012 | 2:13 pm
    It’s unfortunate to see this continued level of misunderstanding at the highest level of leadership.  John Boehner still thinks we’re becoming the next Greece.  A Huffington Post article says: House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) sees the debt ceiling as an “action-forcing event” where he will insist on cuts greater than the increase, setting up a legislative fight similar to the one that paralyzed Congress last summer. Boehner calls the statutory debt limit as the “only avenue” to solve “our structural fiscal imbalance,” according to prepared…

  • Monetarism Unplugged

    JKH
    14 May 2012 | 11:51 am
    There’s a considerable backlog of interesting material related to the April, 2012 Krugman/Keen blogosphere debate on banking. Market monetarist Bill Woolsey wrote an intriguing piece on banks and monetary policy, somewhat under the radar to the main discussion. I don’t know if it was prodded by the K/K debate, but it may well have been: http://monetaryfreedom-billwoolsey.blogspot.ca/2012/04/money-multiplier.html The subject of Woolsey’s post is his explanation of the money multiplier. What caught my eye was not that specific topic, but some of the related description of banking…

  • Bond King Bill Gross: Wrong Again

    Michael Sankowski
    14 May 2012 | 8:33 am
    Bill Gross seems to like being wrong: “I’m not a big Krugman advocate. But I agree that you don’t cut everything and hope the private markets reward you for it. It has to be a balance. What Europe really needs is to get the private market back in there. They’re trying to convince the Pimcos of the world to return (by having the European Central Bank lend to banks), but all the efforts so far use public money. The global marketplace is privately funded. And if the private markets can’t be convinced, this crisis is going to be with us for a very long time.” It’s not…

  • Republicans Force #Austerity, Push Debt Ceiling as Campaign Issue

    Michael Sankowski
    12 May 2012 | 7:43 am
    The Debt Ceiling will be an election issue, and jammed more #austerity down our throats.First, they participated in negotiating an informal deal where they compelled $1 in spending cuts for every new dollar of borrowing. This plan reduces the overall size of the deficit. Then, having secured the #austerity framework, they backed out – insisting on cutting spending on poor people instead of cutting spending on the military. This forces the Debt Ceiling to be a campaign issue for 2012, because the Debt Ceiling will be breached in the lame duck period between the November Elections and the…

  • Morning Caffeine 5-12-2012

    Michael Sankowski
    12 May 2012 | 7:42 am
    Chesapeake’s Weird Bonds: Borrow $$$, Pay Natural Gas Interest Chris Cook believes the Saudis are doing the same thing with oil Does Modern Finance Require “Hulk Smash” Regulation? Scumbag Facebook Co-Founder Saverin Flips the Bird to the People who made him $2.3 Billion Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.
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