Economics

  • Most Topular Stories

  • Paul Krugman: The Big Meh

    Economist's View
    Mark Thoma
    25 May 2015 | 9:21 am
    Why hasn't the digital technological revolution had a bigger impact on productivity?: The Big Meh, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: ...Everyone knows that we live in an era of incredibly rapid technological change, which is changing everything. But what if what everyone knows is wrong? .... A growing number of economists ... are wondering if the technological revolution has been greatly overhyped... New technologies have yielded great headlines, but modest economic results. Why? One possibility is that the numbers are missing the reality, especially the benefits of new products and…
  • The Corporate Archipelago

    Paul Krugman
    By Paul Krugman
    25 May 2015 | 6:03 am
    Not Ayn Rand but Dilbert.
  • Claudia Goldin

    Greg Mankiw's Blog
    Greg Mankiw
    24 May 2015 | 4:15 am
    An interview with my Harvard colleague.
  • The EITC is better than the minimum wage

    Greg Mankiw's Blog
    Greg Mankiw
    23 May 2015 | 3:33 am
    Warren Buffett has a great article in the Wall Street Journal.
  • Grexit and the Morning After

    Paul Krugman
    By Paul Krugman
    25 May 2015 | 6:24 am
    What if Greece succeeds?
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Real Time Economics

  • Fed’s Fischer Sees Short-Term Rate at 3.25%-4% in Three to Four Years

    Joshua Mitnick
    25 May 2015 | 2:52 pm
    HERZLIYA, Israel—Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Monday the central bank expects to follow a “gradual and relatively slow” trajectory of short-term interest-rate increases over the next three to four years to bring borrowing costs back to “normal” levels. Mr. Fischer said observers focus too much on when The Fed will start raising its benchmark short-term rate from near zero, and instead should think more about where interest rates are headed over time. He said Fed economists expect the rate will reach from 3.25% to 4% in three to four years. “There is so much…
  • Fed’s Mester: Monetary Policy Is Second-Line Defense Against Bubbles

    Michael S. Derby
    25 May 2015 | 6:05 am
    Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Bloomberg News In a speech that didn’t comment on monetary policy outlook, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said Monday U.S. officials need to be aware what impact ultra-low rates are having on the banking sector. Ms. Mester, whose comments came from a speech at a conference in Reykjavik, Iceland, also didn’t comment on the economic outlook. Instead, her speech was largely an overview of research on banking-related issues. Ms. Mester said in her speech that it is better for authorities to use…
  • Greece Could Bundle Its Next IMF Payments to Buy Even More Time. But at What Cost?

    Ian Talley
    25 May 2015 | 2:01 am
    Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis speaks at a conference in Athens. His government faces some tough decisions over the next month.  Agence France-Presse/Getty Images As Greece roots around for cash to cover upcoming bills amid stalled bailout talks, one option it could consider is bundling next month’s payments to the International Monetary Fund. The Greek leadership, at this point, doesn’t appear to be considering the option and doesn’t see it as advantageous given concerns about the signals it could send, according to people familiar with the government’s thinking. Obscure…
  • Bank of England Fesses Up to EU Exit Study

    Jason Douglas
    22 May 2015 | 2:02 pm
    A BOE taskforce will look into the economic and financial implications for the U.K. if it votes to leave the EU. The Bank of England is drawing up plans to examine the effect on Britain’s financial sector of a possible U.K. exit from the European Union, the Guardian newspaper reported Friday–citing an email accidentally sent to one of its editors by a BOE official. The newspaper said a taskforce led by BOE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe will look into the economic and financial implications for the U.K. if the nation votes to leave the EU in a referendum due to take place before 2017. A…
  • Currency Sanctions in the Trade Bill: A Risk or a Ruse?

    Ian Talley
    22 May 2015 | 1:07 pm
    President Barack Obama speaks as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at a press conference in Tokyo last year. The U.S. and Japan are the two largest economies in the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership trade talks.   AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES Would sanctioning currency manipulators really put U.S. monetary policy at risk? Maybe. Maybe not. The risk that tough anti-manipulation measures could impede Federal Reserve policies is one of the main arguments the Obama administration is using to warn lawmakers against including binding penalties against countries that devalue their exchange…
 
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    26th Largest Economy

  • Benefits of Steel Garages

    admin
    28 Apr 2015 | 12:58 pm
    A steel garage is a permanent structure for housing your cars, vehicles, equipment, or storage. Many steel garages are attached to the home with either rolling doors or automatic ones. There are however, many freestanding garages. These stand alone Steel Garages are a lot more common than you think. Due to their fully enclosed ability, their lock ability, and their durability – they are often envied! If you care about security and don’t want a carport for that exact reason – look in to getting a steel garage. While you may want the steel garage in order to protect your cars,…
  • The Many Benefits of Boca Raton Horseback Riding Lessons

    admin
    28 Apr 2015 | 12:21 pm
    A lot of children (and adults) are very interested in taking up Boca Raton Horseback Riding Lessons. Horseback Riding can seem like an odd sport to someone new to the world, however, horseback riding is actually a very competitive sport. Horseback riding instills discipline, responsibility, and life skills that become irreplaceable. If you or your child is intersted in horseback riding – contact a reputable horseback riding instructor! Firstly, there is much more to horseback riding than just riding the horse. You have to learn to take care of the horse, groom the horse, and communicate…
  • Consolidate your Payday Loans today and Help the economy!

    admin
    23 Apr 2014 | 6:07 am
    Stock trading is one of the possible careers that you can venture into when looking for a high return of investment on a regular basis. However, you need to consider a tried and tested trading system if you want to succeed in stock market. Trading systems consists of certain rules and parameters that determine entry and exit points for a given equity. Among these parameters include oscillators, moving averages, relative strength, Bollinger bands, and stochastic. In some instances, a combination of more than two parameters determines the rules. In other cases, a single indicator is enough to…
  • Can people afford hot tubs these days?

    admin
    23 Nov 2013 | 10:19 am
    South East Spas is delivering customers Master Spa’s complete line of hot tubs west palm beach and Michael Phelps Signature Series Swim Spas direct to your backyard for blowout prices.  We have models in current overstock at massive discounts as well as all inclusive access to our Scratch/Dent spas and Michael Phelps Signature Swim Spas.  These spas are ready to be delivered to your backyard!  If you are looking for the best price, just give me a call and find out, you won’t be disappointed, we guarantee it. South East Spas will beat or match any south florida spas price out…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    re: The Auditors

  • Peter Thiel’s Pursuit Of Technological Progress; It’s Not About Democracy and It’s Definitely Not About Capitalism – Part 3

    Francine
    13 May 2015 | 4:32 am
    As a journalist, a reporter, I sometimes have to read things I would not otherwise. My luxury as a freelance journalist has been to write what I want, for whom I wish, when I want, and charge what the market will bear. But even I, in the interest of good reporting, have to sometimes go to a source document I know I will disagree with, know I will regret having to pay money for only to put on a shelf or in an archive afterward never to look at again except perhaps to seethe. Ben Horowitz, of venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, wrote a book, The Hard Thing About Hard Things and it’s…
  • Peter Thiel’s Pursuit Of Technological Progress; It’s Not About Democracy and It’s Definitely Not About Capitalism – Part 2

    Francine
    6 May 2015 | 3:48 pm
    In feedback to my paper, Professor Andreas Glaeser said, “I find your most interesting idea to lie in Thiel-fellowship workers as representatives of an entrepreneurial proletariat of sorts. Or, to put it in another metaphor, Thiel as the orchestrator of entrepreneurial hunger games in a world that is the iron cage to the square.” Professor Glaeser is referring to Max Weber’s “iron cage”. From “Mad Max: Escape From The Iron Cage” on the blog Philosophy for Life by Jules Evans. Max Weber once suggested our society was haunted by the ghosts of dead…
  • Peter Thiel’s Pursuit Of Technological Progress; It’s Not About Democracy and It’s Definitely Not About Capitalism – Part 1

    Francine
    4 May 2015 | 4:51 am
    Last quarter I took two classes towards a Masters in Liberal Arts degree at University of Chicago. One was a study of Hindu texts taught by Professor Wendy Doniger.  She is the famous and controversial professor currently prohibited from entering her beloved India as a result of legal and physical threats based on her books about the Hindu religion. You can become familiar with her work via her frequent contributions to the New York Review of Books. The second class was taught by Andreas Glaeser, a Professor in Sociology in the College at the University of Chicago, and is called…
  • Speaking Engagements/Conferences

    Francine
    6 Apr 2015 | 5:40 am
    I’m on the road visiting universities, attending select conferences and forums and speaking to groups of all kinds. If you would like me to visit your university and your accounting/audit program, please write soon to lock in fall and winter dates. Contact me at fmckenna@mckennapartners.com to schedule a presentation at your university, conference, firm or for a private briefing. Coming Up: May 2, 2015, Guest lecturer. Baruch College/CUNY, Zicklin School of Business, New York, NY, for an advanced auditing class at the invitation of Professor Doug Carmichael. May 4, 2015, Guest lecturer.
  • Deloitte US First Female CEO; There’s More We Don’t Know

    Francine
    2 Mar 2015 | 4:29 pm
    Wouldn’t it be nice if investors and other interested parties could look up Cathy Engelbert in a public and easily accessible registry and find out about all the audit clients where she has been a lead partner or a Quality Control partner? Has she ever been named in a lawsuit or been sanctioned? Let’s hope not. Here’s what I think really matters about Engelbert’s appointment. From my piece at Medium.com. More important than being a woman is the fact that Engelbert is an audit leader rather than a consulting or tax leader. EY’s chose its new US CEO from its tax lobbying…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The American Prospect

  • Honor Our War Dead On Memorial Day -- They Won't Be the Last

    Paul Waldman
    24 May 2015 | 6:35 pm
    AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana Visitors look at the names on the Vietnam Veterans Memorial wall, ahead of Memorial Day in Washington, Sunday, May 24, 2015.  This Memorial Day, the day set aside to honor those who died in America's many wars, we find ourselves still debating the last war we fought, arguing over what the nation consented to in 2003 and what its leaders delivered. Just imagine if George W. Bush had come before the American people then and said, "I want to invade Iraq, and here's what's going to happen. The war will last over eight years, during which time just short of 4,500…
  • The Evolutionary Roots of Altruism

    Melvin Konner
    22 May 2015 | 12:12 pm
    Ciju Cherian / Solent News / Rex Features With a little teamwork, these ants turn themselves into a bridge for their friends to walk over in Kerala, India.  Does Altruism Exist? Culture, Genes, and the Welfare of Others By David Sloan Wilson 192 pp. Yale University/Templeton Press $27.50 David Sloan Wilson opens his new book, Does Altruism Exist?, with an old conundrum that has animated many late-night dormitory debates: If helping someone gives you pleasure, gains you points for an afterlife, and enhances your reputation, is it really altruism? Wilson wisely decides to put acts before…
  • How Solar Is Lighting the Way for Recovery in Nepal

    Tara Lohan
    22 May 2015 | 5:20 am
    (Photo: Milap Dwa) Milap Dwa and Chij Kumar​, technicians from Gham Power​, installing a 120-watt solar PV system kit on top of one of the few houses in Barpak, Gorkha, that are still standing. In the days following Nepal’s 7.8-magnitude earthquake on April 25, as massive power outages complicated relief efforts, Sandeep Giri and his coworkers were shaken but determined to help. Giri, who was born and raised in Nepal, is the CEO of Gham Power, a solar company that’s been operating in Nepal for the last five years. After the earthquake, Gham Power’s employees sprung into action to…
  • It's All About the Money

    David L. Kirp
    21 May 2015 | 11:17 am
    AP Photo/Orlin Wagner A student in line for his diploma wears a cap decorated with the cost of his education during graduation ceremonies at the University of Idaho in Moscow, Idaho, May 16, 2015. This is a pivotal moment in American higher education—a crisis, you might say, if the term hadn’t been debased by overuse. The criticisms come from every corner and the bill of particulars is lengthy. The financial cost gets most of the attention. Since 1980, tuition has more than doubled at private universities and tripled at public institutions. Students have accumulated more than $1.2…
  • Elizabeth Warren on The American Prospect and the Prospects for America

    The American Prospect
    21 May 2015 | 8:54 am
    Joe Gallant On May 13, Senator Elizabeth Warren keynoted our 25th anniversary celebration here in Washington, D.C., where she laid out her vision of American economic policy that that works for all Americans. Introducing herself as a longtime reader and one time writer for the Prospect, Warren praised the magazine for its foresight and boldness. She declared: "When the top 10 percent gets 100 percent of the income growth over the course of a generation, then the America of opportunity is vanishing." Warren reminded her audience that in the postwar era we had both growth and equity, and we…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Robert Reich

  • Whatever Happened to Antitrust?

    24 May 2015 | 8:15 am
    Last week’s settlement between the Justice Department and five giant banks reveals the appalling...
  • Ten Ideas to Save the Economy #5: How to Reinvent...

    21 May 2015 | 9:30 am
    Ten Ideas to Save the Economy #5: How to Reinvent EducationSenator Bernie Sanders is making waves with a big idea to reinvent education: Making public colleges and universities tuition-free.I couldn’t agree more. Higher education isn’t just a personal investment. It’s a public good that pays off in a more competitive workforce and better-informed and engaged citizens. Every year, we spend nearly $100 billion on corporate welfare, and more than $500 billion on defense spending. Surely ensuring the next generation can compete in the global economy is at least as important as subsidies…
  • Ten Ideas to Save the Economy #4: Bust Up Wall Street When...

    18 May 2015 | 3:53 pm
    Ten Ideas to Save the Economy #4: Bust Up Wall Street When Americans think of how the economic rules are stacked against them, they naturally think of Wall Street.  When the Wall Street bubble burst in 2008 because of excessive risk-taking, millions of working Americans lost their jobs, health insurance, savings, and homes. But The Street is back to many of its old tricks. And its lobbyists are busily rolling back the Dodd-Frank Act, intended to prevent another crash. The biggest Wall Street banks are also much larger. In 1990, the five biggest banks had 10 percent of all of the nation’s…
  • The Revolt of Small Business Republicans

    18 May 2015 | 12:24 pm
    Can it be that America’s small businesses are finally waking up to the fact they’re being...
  • Ten Ideas to Save the Economy #3: Expand Social SecurityAmerica...

    14 May 2015 | 10:41 am
    Ten Ideas to Save the Economy #3: Expand Social SecurityAmerica is on the cusp of a retirement crisis. Millions of Americans are already in danger of not being able to maintain their standard of living in retirement, and the problem is getting worse.You hear a lot about how corporations are struggling to make good on their pension promises, and how Social Security won’t be there for you in retirement.Baloney on both counts. Corporations are awash in money, and they could afford to provide their hourly workers with pensions when they retire. Years ago, they routinely provided “defined…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

  • Links and Tweets...

    J. Bradford DeLong
    26 May 2015 | 9:37 pm
    Links: Matt Grossmann and David A. Hopkins: "The Republican Party is primarily the agent of an ideological movement whose supporters prize doctrinal purity, while the Democratic Party is better understood as a coalition of social groups seeking concrete government action. This asymmetry is reinforced by American public opinion, which favors left-of-center positions on most specific policy issues yet simultaneously shares the general conservative preference for smaller and less active government..." Bernie Sanders: 'Our Democracy is Being Owned by a Handful of Billionaires' Nancy LeTourneau:…
  • Walrus Cam Video

    J. Bradford DeLong
    25 May 2015 | 12:46 pm
    Walrus Cam - Round Island - Oceans - explore:
  • Monday Smackdown Watch: Robert Waldmann Defends Janet Yellen from Brad DeLong

    J. Bradford DeLong
    25 May 2015 | 8:30 am
    Over at Equitable Growth: Robert Waldmann: In Which I try to Defend Janet Yellen from Brad DeLong: "Fed Chair Janet Yellen said, among other things: For this reason, if the economy continues to improve as I expect, I think it will be appropriate at some point this year to take the initial step to raise the federal funds rate target and begin the process of normalizing monetary policy. To support taking this step, however, I will need to see continued improvement in labor market conditions, and I will need to be reasonably confident that inflation will move back to 2 percent over the…
  • Noted for Your Morning Procrastination for May 25, 2015

    J. Bradford DeLong
    25 May 2015 | 8:02 am
    Must- and Should-Reads: Richard Thaler: Unless You Are Spock, Irrelevant Things Matter in Economic Behavior Social Credit! Mark Blyth, Eric Lonergan and Simon Wren-Lewis: Now the Bank of England needs to deliver QE for the people. We propose that the government legislates to empower the Bank with the ability to make payments directly to the household sector... Must-Read: Christopher L. Foote and Christopher F. Goetz (2005): The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime: Comment Must-Read: Nicholas Bagley: Wreck the RUC Must-Read: William Lazonick: Stock buybacks: From retain-and reinvest to…
  • 25 May 2015 | 6:54 am

    J. Bradford DeLong
    25 May 2015 | 6:54 am
    Comment of the Day: Kip W on G.K. Chesterton: " I have enjoyed Chesterton's Father Brown series a good deal... ...but I get a whiff from it now and then that makes the simple man of faith and his universe seem like a bit of a stacked deck, and this makes me sad. Of course, all freethinkers are idiots or knaves in his world (though he does have barbs for those who take too much on authority, it seems). Then there's N. Ned, the black boxer who figures highly in 'The God of the Gongs.' Ned is his first name, N. stands for his descriptor, the n- word. Chesterton goes full…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Calculated Risk

  • Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, Durable Goods and More

    Bill McBride
    25 May 2015 | 5:13 pm
    From Bloomberg: What Would Happen If Greece Doesn’t Pay the IMF: Q&AQ: What will the IMF do?A: A missed payment date starts the clock ticking. Two weeks after the initial due date and a cable from Washington urging immediate payment, the fund sends another cable stressing the “seriousness of the failure to meet obligations” and again urges prompt settlement. Two weeks after that, the managing director informs the Executive Board that an obligation is overdue. For Greece, that’s when the serious consequences kick in. These are known as cross-default and cross-acceleration.From…
  • Gasoline Prices: Down a Dollar from last year on Memorial Day

    Bill McBride
    25 May 2015 | 7:11 am
    According to Gasbuddy.com (see graph at bottom), gasoline prices are down to a national average of $2.75 per gallon. One year ago for the week of Memorial Day, prices were at $3.75 per gallon, and for the same week two years ago prices were $3.70 per gallon.Ten years ago, price were at $2.17 per gallon, and fifteen years ago at $1.57.Memorial DayWeekly AverageGasoline…
  • Hotels: RevPAR up almost 50% since 2009

    Bill McBride
    24 May 2015 | 7:01 pm
    Revenue per available room (RevPAR) is now at $85.50. In May 2009, RevPAR had fallen to $58.39. So, RevPAR is up 46.9% over the last 6 years - and the occupancy rate will probably be at a new record high this year.  A great year for hotels!From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 16 MayThe U.S. hotel industry recorded positive results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 10-16 May 2015, according to data from STR, Inc.In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy increased 0.5 percent to 70.3 percent. Average daily rate increased…
  • Report: Greece will not make June IMF Payment

    Bill McBride
    24 May 2015 | 8:30 am
    From the WSJ: Greece Won’t Meet IMF Repayments in June, Interior Minister SaysGreece said Sunday that it won’t have the money it is due to repay to the International Monetary Fund next month unless it strikes a deal with international creditors over further rescue funding.Interior Minister Nikos Voutsis told privately owned television station Mega that Greece is scheduled to repay €1.6 billion ($1.76 billion) to the IMF between June 5-19, but the payments cannot be met.“This money will not be given,” he said. “It does not exist.”
  • Schedule for Week of May 24, 2015

    Bill McBride
    23 May 2015 | 5:31 am
    The key reports this week are April New Home sales on Tuesday, the 2nd estimate of Q1 GDP on Friday, and March Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday.For manufacturing, the May Richmond and Dallas Fed surveys will be released this week.----- Monday, May 25th -----All US markets will be closed in observance of Memorial Day. ----- Tuesday, May 26th -----8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.6% decrease in durable goods orders.9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for March 2015. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Crooked Timber

  • Opportunity cost: a Fabian idea?

    John Quiggin
    25 May 2015 | 10:11 pm
    As part of the research for Economics in Two Lessons, I’m looking in to the history of some of the ideas I’m talking about, including Pareto optimality, externalities and of course opportunity cost. I’m undecided as to whether I’ll include this material, perhaps as starred (skip if you feel like it) sections, or in an Appendix. Suggestions on this point are welcome. My research on the intellectual history of opportunity cost has so far gone no further than Wikipedia, which attributes the term to Friedrich von Wieser, an Austrian economist in both the national (he was…
  • A Paris memoir from 1978

    Chris Bertram
    25 May 2015 | 12:32 pm
    One thing about the interwebs is that you sometimes get to find out about someone you’ve been disconnected from for years. It happened to me yesterday, when I discovered that the guy who had been my “handler” in Lutte Ouvière had died in 2011 aged 62, following a stroke. I’d noticed that some prominent French administrator had the same name and googled to see if it was the same guy. It wasn’t, but up came the obituary of Denis Robin, comrade Cerdon, and with it a whole bunch of memories of the nineteen-year-old me from 1978. Back then I had finished school,…
  • Fight Racism. Confirm Clarence Thomas. (Updated)

    Corey Robin
    25 May 2015 | 10:41 am
    I’ve been reading Jill Abramson’s and Jane Mayer’s Strange Justice: The Selling of Clarence Thomas, the definitive account of Thomas’s confirmation battle, which came out in 1994. Here are eight things I’ve learned from it. Among the many surprises of the book is how men and women who were connected to the confirmation battle, or to Thomas and/or Anita Hill, and who were little known at the time, would go on to become fixtures of and issues in our contemporary politics and culture. 1. Edward P. Jones, author of The Known World, which won…
  • Cotten-Picking, Rootin’ Tootin’, Sassafrassing…Guitar Hero

    Belle Waring
    24 May 2015 | 7:39 am
    Elizabeth Cotten had an unlikely musical career. As a left-handed young girl she taught herself to play her brother’s banjo. Then she bought a guitar from Sears Roebuck at 11 and proceeded to play it Jimi Hendrix-style, upside-down. After getting married at 17 she basically gave up playing guitar for 25 years, except for occasional church performances. Quite at random, she was hired as a maid by part of the Seeger family—working for Pete Seeger’s dad and the children of his second wife. She picked up the guitar again, and blew everybody’s mind. Mike Seeger…
  • Sunday photoblogging: Florence scooters

    Chris Bertram
    24 May 2015 | 5:59 am
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Econbrowser

  • Gasoline prices and consumer sentiment

    James_Hamilton
    24 May 2015 | 7:09 am
    U.S. retail gasoline prices last week averaged over $2.80 a gallon, thirty cents higher than a month ago. The preliminary University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment for May was 88.6, down 7 points from the month before. Are these two developments related? The consumer sentiment index is plotted in black in the graph below with units on the left scale. The negative of the gasoline price in real terms (deflated using the CPI) is shown in blue, with units on the right scale. I have plotted the negative of gasoline prices to help highlight the negative relation between the two…
  • Interest Rate Parity and Exogeneity

    Menzie Chinn
    22 May 2015 | 9:07 am
    One of the enduring puzzles of international finance is the fact that the joint hypothesis of uncovered interest parity and rational expectations is consistently rejected, as evidenced by the coefficient estimates in the Fama regression. The typical approach is to estimate a regression of the ex post change (in logs) of the exchange rate on the interest differential (this is an approximation). (1)     Δst+1 = β0 + β1 (it – it) + εt+1 A commonplace finding is that estimates of β1 are negative and statistically significantly different from unity,…
  • Exchange Rate Regimes and the Global Financial Cycle

    Menzie Chinn
    19 May 2015 | 9:34 am
    Relevant or Irrelevant? The highly integrated nature of the global financial system was amply demonstrated, if we needed any reminder, by the turmoil in emerging market currency and bond markets in the wake of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s statements regarding the normalization of U.S. monetary policy, i.e., the “taper tantrum”. Following close on the heels of complaints about unconventional monetary policy implementation in the preceding years, it is clear that – at a minimum – policymakers in emerging market economies perceive a high and increasing vulnerability to the whims of the…
  • UCSD Chancellor’s Associates Award

    James_Hamilton
    17 May 2015 | 1:04 pm
    I was recently honored to receive the UCSD Chancellor’s Associates Award for Excellence in Research and Social Sciences. Here’s a video they made for the event.
  • Keine Roten Kartoffeln für Sie!

    Menzie Chinn
    16 May 2015 | 2:42 pm
    Auch keine Garnelen, in Wisconsin.* (Seriously! See page 3, line 9, and lines 14-15, in the bill) From the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Under [the] bill, food stamp recipients could not use the program to buy crab, lobster, shrimp or other shellfish. Additionally, they would have to use two-thirds of their benefits on beef, pork, chicken, produce or foods that qualify for the federal Women, Infants and Children nutrition program. The remainder could be used on foods already allowed under the food stamps program, other than shellfish. The bill passed the Assembly, and is now on the way to the…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    EconLog: Library of Economics and Liberty

  • Get Over Yourself

    Bryan Caplan
    26 May 2015 | 12:03 am
    (May 26, 2015 12:03 AM, by Bryan Caplan) I don't worry much about what other people think about me.  My detractors attribute this to a severe case of Asperger's, but I've got a competing two-part story.  Part 1: We live in an evolutionarily novel anonymous society, so most... (0 COMMENTS)
  • Henderson's Law of Heroic Movies

    David Henderson
    25 May 2015 | 1:22 pm
    (May 25, 2015 01:22 PM, by David Henderson) Dan Klein, with whom I've been arguing about designer babies lately, recently suggested that I post about an article I wrote for Reason 26 years ago: Henderson's Law of Heroic Movies. The Introduction "David, I rented a movie for tonight... (4 COMMENTS)
  • Questions that don't get asked very often

    Scott Sumner
    25 May 2015 | 11:20 am
    (May 25, 2015 11:20 AM, by Scott Sumner) I don't recall many articles written by neoconservatives discussing how certain aspects of modern global instability might have been caused by US intervention. Perhaps that's because they favor intervention. I don't recall reading many articles written by progressives discussing how... (10 COMMENTS)
  • John Nash, RIP

    David Henderson
    24 May 2015 | 1:06 pm
    (May 24, 2015 01:06 PM, by David Henderson) The famous game theorist John Nash and his wife Alicia were killed in a traffic accident yesterday in New Jersey. He was 86. I met him and had lunch with him when he came to speak at the Naval Postgraduate... (15 COMMENTS)
  • Should We Fear Progress?

    David Henderson
    23 May 2015 | 9:57 pm
    (May 23, 2015 09:57 PM, by David Henderson) As I mentioned in a comment on Bryan Caplan's response to Dan Klein, the further I get away from Dan Klein's piece on "designer babies," the less persuaded I am. That glide path has continued. Virtually all of Dan Klein's... (8 COMMENTS)
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Economist's View

  • Links for 05-26-15

    Mark Thoma
    26 May 2015 | 12:06 am
    Grexit and the Morning After - Paul Krugman Tim Smeeding on how to reduce income inequality - Lane Kenworthy The Limited Political Implications of Behavioral Economics - Carola Blinder What the non-lunatic right believes about macro policy - Nick Rowe Technology, inflation and the Federal Reserve - Gavyn Davies Actor-centered research frameworks - Understanding Society Rethinking macro policy: Ten takeaways - Vox EU More and better private investments - OECD John Nash and Ideal Money - EconoSpeak A parallel currency for Greece - Vox EU The Corporate Archipelago - Paul Krugman The Earned…
  • Paul Krugman: The Big Meh

    Mark Thoma
    25 May 2015 | 9:21 am
    Why hasn't the digital technological revolution had a bigger impact on productivity?: The Big Meh, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: ...Everyone knows that we live in an era of incredibly rapid technological change, which is changing everything. But what if what everyone knows is wrong? .... A growing number of economists ... are wondering if the technological revolution has been greatly overhyped... New technologies have yielded great headlines, but modest economic results. Why? One possibility is that the numbers are missing the reality, especially the benefits of new products and…
  • Links for 05-25-15

    Mark Thoma
    25 May 2015 | 12:06 am
    Whatever Happened to Antitrust? - Robert Reich A Reawakening of Monetary Policy Research - John Taylor Gasoline prices and consumer sentiment - Econbrowser An Odd Couple - Economic Principals Beating dead horses - Updated Priors The Economics of John Nash - A Fine Theorem Economics in One Lesson: Nash - Digitopoly
  • Links for 05-24-15

    Mark Thoma
    24 May 2015 | 12:06 am
    A Conversation About Inequality and Atkinson - Paul Krugman A Brief But Affectionate Review - Roger Farmer Did the iPhone kill BlackBerry? - Digitopoly The Vicious Cycle of High Inequality - NYTimes.com Draft Preface: Economics in Two Lessons - Crooked Timber Regimes and Regressions (Wonkish) - Paul Krugman Do politicians need to pander to myths? - mainly macro Consensus in macroeconomics - mainly macro My thoughts on reducing income inequality - Lane Kenworthy Maximum Likelihood Estimation & Inequality Constraints - Dave Giles Homo economicus or homo paleas? - The Grumpy Economist In…
  • Surprise!

    Mark Thoma
    23 May 2015 | 9:41 am
    How the world has surprised Brad DeLong: Four Ways in Which the World Has Surprised Me Over the Past Decade with Its Economics: A good day yesterday at the University of California center in Sacramento... I started out saying: I find my peers, as they age, become increasingly unwilling to mark their beliefs to market. .... So let me ... spend my time this lunchtime detailing four points in economics at which the world has surprised me over the past decade, and in which as a result reality has led me to shift my beliefs. In brief: The world has turned out to be more Keynesian than I would have…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    EconTalk

  • Bent Flyvbjerg on Megaprojects

    Russell Roberts
    25 May 2015 | 3:30 am
    Bent Flyvbjerg of Oxford University speaks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the political economy of megaprojects--massive investments of a billion dollars or more in infrastructure or technology. Flyvbjerg argues that such projects consistently end up costing more with smaller benefits than projected and almost always end up with costs that exceed the benefits. Flyvbjerg explores the reasons for the poor predictions and poor performance of giant investment projects and what might be done to improve their effectiveness. Play Time: 1:04:17 How do I listen to a podcast? Download Size:29.5…
  • Continuing Education... Nicholas Vincent on the Magna Carta

    Amy Willis
    20 May 2015 | 10:29 am
    Did an 800 year old piece of parchment really change the world? That was the central question of this week's episode with Nicholas Vincent. Now we want to turn the conversation over to you. Use the thought prompts below to carry on the conversation in the Comments. (And we hope you spark some off-line conversation of your own, too!) You never know...your Comment could be featured in an upcoming EconTalk post! 1. What are your top three takeaways from this week's episode? 2. Vincent argues that the Magna Carta takes the "precise opposite" position as compared to the U.S. Constitution with…
  • Nicholas Vincent on the Magna Carta

    Russell Roberts
    18 May 2015 | 3:30 am
    Did an 800-year old piece of parchment really change the world? Nicholas Vincent of the University of East Anglia talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the Magna Carta, the founding document of English law and liberty. The Magna Carta was repudiated just ten weeks after King John issued it. Yet, its impact is still with us today. In this conversation, Vincent explains what led to the Magna Carta and how its influence remains with us today in England and elsewhere. Play Time: 1:10:15 How do I listen to a podcast? Download Size:32.2 MB Right-click or Option-click, and select "Save…
  • Continuing Education... Eric Topol on the Power of Patients in a Digital World

    Amy Willis
    13 May 2015 | 11:21 am
    There's a healthcare revolution underway, and while your smartphone may be center-stage in this drama, there's more to the story than apps. Eric Topol of the Scripps Translational Science Institute joins EconTalk host Russ Roberts for this week's conversation. Now we'd like to hear from you. Please respond to any of the following in the Comments. Reach out to your friends, too, and let's all continue the conversation. 1. What are your top three takeaways from this week's episode? 2. How can the sharing economy enhance patient-driven health care? How do the barriers to entry for medical…
  • Eric Topol on the Power of Patients in a Digital World

    Russell Roberts
    11 May 2015 | 3:30 am
    We're in the middle of a healthcare revolution but it's about more than marvelous life-saving and life-enhancing apps on our smartphone. Eric Topol of the Scripps Translational Science Institute and author of The Patient Will See You Now argues that the digital revolution will give us more control of our health information and data. More powerful patients will transform the doctor-patient interaction. Topol talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his new book giving us a glimpse of the changes coming to medicine from the digital revolution. Play Time: 1:07:05 How do I listen to a podcast?
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Environmental Economics

  • Mileage Taxes Coming to a State Near You?

    Tim Haab
    22 May 2015 | 11:02 am
    Oregon is about to embark on a first-in-the-nation program that aims to charge car owners not for the fuel they use, but for the miles they drive. The program is meant to help the state raise more revenue to pay for road and bridge projects at a time when money generated from gasoline taxes are declining across the country, in part, because of greater fuel efficiency and the increasing popularity of fuel-efficient, hybrid and electric cars. Starting July 1, up to 5,000 volunteers in Oregon can sign up to drive with devices that collect data on how much they have driven and where. The…
  • "Do demand curves slope upwards, or…downwards?"

    John Whitehead
    20 May 2015 | 3:19 am
    Tyler Cowen:I say downwards: With bargain gasoline prices putting more money in the pockets of Americans, owners of hybrids and electric vehicles are defecting to sport utility vehicles and other conventional models powered only by gasoline, according to Edmunds.com, an auto research firm. There are limits, it appears, to how far consumers will go to own a car that became a rolling statement of environmental concern. In 2012, with gas prices soaring, an owner could expect a hybrid to pay back its higher upfront costs in as little as five years. Now, that oft-calculated payback period can…
  • The Institute for Environmental and Resource Economics in the Southern Appalachians

    John Whitehead
    20 May 2015 | 3:17 am
    Source: http://www.phdcomics.com/comics.php?f=1801
  • At the risk of being called Professor know it all

    John Whitehead
    18 May 2015 | 9:19 am
    I've spent most of the time since grades were submitted catching up on reviews. I'm getting old and tired of writing the same things over and over. For example, I tend to referee a few revealed and stated preference data combination papers each year. The data are typically collected from a survey eliciting recreational behavior. Data points should include: ex-post revealed preference (RP) trips ex-ante stated preference (SP) trips under most recent conditions (i.e., status quo) SP trips under different conditions Sometimes #2 is left out. Other times #1 and #2 are assumed…
  • "An Adjunct’s Farewell"

    John Whitehead
    18 May 2015 | 7:16 am
    David J. McCowin:Administrations, not department chairs, are responsible for making decisions about the pay of adjunct instructors. And for most, it’s not a priority. Surely, though, the marketing brochures you received from colleges and universities did not highlight their cost-cutting methods in staffing classrooms. They’re strangely quiet on this growing issue, which suggests a lack of pride in their own policies. via chronicle.com
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    footnoted*

  • Herbalife v. Ackman: Who’s manipulating whom?

    Michelle Leder
    6 May 2015 | 9:00 am
    It’s been nearly 2 1/2 years since Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman made a 300-page presentation outlining his short position in Herbalife. Since then, countless pixels (not to mention video footage and actual ink) has been devoted to the seemingly never-ending battle, complete with dueling websites (see this company site and this anti-Herbalife site). Here at footnoted, we haven’t really spent too much time on the back-and-forth volleying. Still, a disclosure in the 10-Q that Herbalife filed yesterday afternoon — the same day it reported better-than-expected results that…
  • Warning signals in Yelp’s 10-K

    Michelle Leder
    1 May 2015 | 10:12 am
    Back on March 2, we published a report on Yelp that looked at some of the tough new language that we found in their 10-K. Given Yelp’s earnings release on Wednesday and the sharp decline in the stock price yesterday, we wanted to make the report available to all of our footnoted readers. You can read the report here for free. Just a reminder that there are no accidents in SEC filings. Everything is there for a reason.
  • Pier 1’s Not-So Confidential Agreement

    Michelle Leder
    29 Apr 2015 | 8:03 am
    Hardly a day goes by when we don’t notice a “Confidential Agreement” attached as an Exhibit to an SEC filing. The irony, of course, is that once it hits the EDGAR database, it’s not exactly confidential any longer. Take this “Confidential Retirement Agreement” that was attached to the 10-K that Pier One filed on Tuesday. The agreement was with former CFO Charles “Cary H.” Turner, who suddenly “retired” on Feb. 10, the very same day that the company “revised” its financial guidance for fiscal 2014. Just to be clear, by…
  • Golden parachutes for government service?

    Michelle Leder
    17 Apr 2015 | 11:37 am
    We’re deep into proxy season, with the deadline for companies that are on a calendar year only 13 days away (9 if you only count business days). And we’ve noticed an interesting shareholder proposal this year that’s on the ballot at four different financial services powerhouses: Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley. The proposal by the AFL-CIO Reserve Fund uses a phrase we haven’t seen before in SEC filings: government service golden parachutes, which the union describes as rewards for employees who leave their jobs to become government…
  • An inverse relationship at J.C. Penney

    Michelle Leder
    27 Mar 2015 | 8:05 am
    Earlier this week, beleaguered retailer JC Penney Co, filed its proxy statement. Given some of the high-profile comings and goings at the company over the past few years, we’ve paid pretty close attention to their proxy and this year’s version didn’t disappoint. For the past few years, the company has at least one — and sometimes two — executives who have received hefty severance packages for relatively short stints when whatever magic potion they were pedaling failed to turn the company around. This year’s proxy didn’t disappoint: the company…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Free exchange

  • Nash's Nobel prize

    THE ECONOMIST | LONDON
    24 May 2015 | 11:37 am
    Our coverage on the award of the Nobel prize for economics to John Nash in 1994The games economists play | Oct 15th 1994  Game theory is now part of almost every economist's tool-kit, as this week's Nobel economics prize recognisesIT SOUNDS like a sports fan's dream. In Stockholm on October 11th, three men shared a $1m prize for their skill at analysing games. They are not television pundits, or armchair critics of Manchester United or the Miami Dolphins, but economists. Two Americans, John Harsanyi and John Nash, and a German, Reinhard Selten, have won this year's Nobel prize…
  • Financial crime, Ukraine's economic mess and "basic income" policies

    C.R. | LONDON
    22 May 2015 | 7:00 am
    THIS week's print edition has an array of economics articles that may be of interest. The following have particularly caught our eye:Why America's approach to punishing financial crime is muddled, lenient and self-defeating (Leaders)Why the West should do much more to help Ukraine's economy (Leaders)And don't forget to take a glance at this week's Free Exchange column, which looks at why introducing a "basic income" for all is unaffordable.
  • Slipping away from the West

    C.W. and J.W | LONDON
    21 May 2015 | 12:09 pm
    IN A LEADER this week we argue that the West should treat Ukraine like it treated Poland in the early 1990s. Poland has had bucketloads of aid and economic assistance thrown at it since the 1990s, its economy booming as a result. Ukraine, on the other hand, has recieved hardly any at all. Now both its politics and its economy are in a mess.Here are a few charts that show how the West has got it wrong with Ukraine. Firstly, as we argued in this week's leader:In the early 1990s Poland wanted a European, not a Russian, future. The West saw its chance. From 1990 to 2000 Poland received a…
  • What goes down, must come up

    Y.Y. | LONDON
    19 May 2015 | 7:18 am
    FOR the first time since 1960, the price of British goods and services has fallen over the course of a year—but only just. Prices fell by 0.1% in the year to April 2015, having been unchanged in the year to March. The change is tiny and its cause is not a concern. But a threshold has been breached: Britain is now in deflation.Price rises have been smothered by falling oil prices.  A year ago, a barrel of the black stuff cost $103; today, $65. That has made it 12% cheaper for Britons to fill their cars with fuel. Food is also 3% cheaper than in April 2014, in part due to an ongoing…
  • Hurrying up

    The Economist
    19 May 2015 | 3:50 am
    GREECE'S looming debt payments, America's deadline for prosecuting white collar financial crimes and Europe's improving economy
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Greg Mankiw's Blog

  • Claudia Goldin

    Greg Mankiw
    24 May 2015 | 4:15 am
    An interview with my Harvard colleague.
  • The EITC is better than the minimum wage

    Greg Mankiw
    23 May 2015 | 3:33 am
    Warren Buffett has a great article in the Wall Street Journal.
  • Alternatives to the Price System

    Greg Mankiw
    17 May 2015 | 11:08 am
    This article makes the case for social, rather than financial, incentives. I am not convinced, but it should generate an interesting class discussion.
  • Bill Clinton in Haiti

    Greg Mankiw
    17 May 2015 | 8:03 am
    A few years ago, I had the pleasure of meeting Patrick Moynihan, a Catholic deacon who is the president of The Haitian Project and head of its Louverture Cleary School, in Haiti, for gifted but poor children. Our paths crossed because Patrick was helping to launch a course in introductory economics at the school, and my publisher generously donated copies of my favorite textbook.Patrick recently sent me a link to his article about the role Bill Clinton has played in Haiti. It is not a pretty picture.
  • Hear Me Squawk

    Greg Mankiw
    12 May 2015 | 7:15 am
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Hedge fund

  • Low risk or low cost

    Hedge Fund
    18 May 2015 | 6:00 am
    Passive funds are just low quality trading models with abysmal risk-adjusted returns, brilliantly sold to the ignorant, claiming low fees but with high costs. Using market capitalization in a single factor ranking selection renders such products unsuitable for anyone. No skill, no analysis, no knowledge of securities in the fund? Do you prefer low fee or low risk?Wall Street darling Jack Bogle claims the high risk funds he sells are "low cost". Low fee is not low cost. Passive funds are outrageously expensive considering the severity of losses and years spent in drawdown…
  • Hedge fund test

    Hedge Fund
    9 May 2015 | 8:14 am
    Skilled investors get top scores on the Hedge Fund Test. How will you do? Only the most dedicated and talented can find true alpha. Good managers need inherent ability and a minimum 50,000 hours full time investing to BECOME skilled and must work 100 hour weeks to stay competent. Such people don't run strategies dependent on an asset class benchmark.1) Risk management: Today if global thermonuclear war, a Richter scale 11 earthquake, a new ice age, an alien invasion and a Texas-sized asteroid strikes, how much money will you make and how much will passive funds lose?i) I pick stocks…
  • World's best investor

    Hedge Fund
    8 May 2015 | 11:08 am
    Best investor? I define "best" by highest risk adjusted returns over several decades. AUM and fame are usually negatively correlated with future performance. Steep losses and high volatility are what long only funds reliably deliver every few years. The time in drawdowns is NEVER recovered.For asset classes, history is not forward looking. Your money is too important to be risked on "averages". I prefer talent that delivers independently of market direction. Though rare, skill can be detected with competent analysis. Bet on horses and lose years of gains in bear markets. I bet on jockeys, not…
  • Active or passive

    Hedge Fund
    3 May 2015 | 4:58 pm
    Active v passive debate is better known as smart active v dumb active. Index funds are just unskilled low frequency trading strategies with horrific volatility, unacceptable losses and abysmal risk adjusted returns. Why invest in "cheap" dumb active products that lost trillions in 2008 and endured 50% drawdowns twice last decade?True buy and hold? The original components of the S&P in 1957 have outperformed the actively managed S&P. That's because the unskilled S&P committee keeps on buying highs and selling lows. Dumb trading. A portfolio of good hedge funds has outperformed…
  • High frequency cash

    Hedge Fund
    3 May 2015 | 4:08 pm
    High frequency investor? We live in a short term world so adapt. We MUST all invest appropriately to survive in this era of constant change and disruptive innovation. There is no long term. Only a sequence of very short terms and regime shifts to which portfolios must conform. There is no stock or bond I will invest in on a long horizon and no fund I will agree to illiquid lockups or gates regardless of track record.KEEP LIQUID. How often do you review your portfolio? If you don't have the time, technology or inclination to thoroughly analyze, monitor and manage risks a minimum of…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up

  • Sgt. Pepper! Joe Cocker! Jimmy Page! Oh, and Warren and Charlie...

    Jeff Matthews
    2 May 2015 | 3:50 pm
                      The best part of this year’s Berkshire meeting—except seeing Charlie Munger in good form, which we’ll get to in a bit—was the movie.            Not the movie itself, but the end of the movie, when the sing-along tribute to Berkshire’s managers, which always used to be set to the tune of “My Favorite Things,” turned out to use “Sgt. Pepper” instead.            That’s some good taste there. …
  • Messi Announces Retirement, Reporter Asks About Half-Time Score

    Jeff Matthews
    27 Mar 2015 | 4:33 am
     Tom Prescott announced his retirement last night.   You may not have heard of him, but as CEO of Align Technologies (the inventors of Invisalign “invisible braces”) Prescott helped turn a $70 million revenue company with 35% gross margins, negative operating margins and a $127 million market value into a near-$800 million revenue company with near-80% gross margins and 25% operating margins. Oh, yeah, and a $4.5 billion market value, last we checked. More than that, Tom Prescott helped Invisalign develop from a niche product not much liked by the orthodontists…
  • Charlie Named Name

    Jeff Matthews
    28 Feb 2015 | 10:04 am
    Ned Isakoff: “You got me blacklisted from Hop Sing’s?”Delivery Man:  “She named name!”—Seinfeld, “The Race”  Like Elaine Benes in that Seinfeld episode, Charlie Munger named name. Two names, in fact: Greg Abel and Ajit Jain. Unlike Elaine Benes’s name-naming, however, the two named by Munger have nothing to do with Communist agitation and the destruction of capitalism as we know it—far from it.   Rather, they have everything to do with Capitalist orthodoxy in its purest, most meritocratic form: who might succeed Warren Buffett as CEO of…
  • From Cleaning Harbors to Feeding Roughnecks: “Next Year in Jerusalem!”

    Jeff Matthews
    11 Jan 2015 | 8:42 am
     The Canadian tar sands have been very good to Clean Harbors, a perennial Wall Street favorite that evolved from a disaster cleanup business (for which the company’s web pages still carry a plug at the bottom: “For 24-Hour Emergency Response, call 800.OIL.TANK”) into a diversified industrial service company through 35-plus acquisitions costing about $2 billion over 25 years. The tar sands business came with the 2009 acquisition of Eveready, and so swiftly did CLH expand deeper into so-called unconventional energy (everything from feeding and housing roughnecks in lodges to…
  • The NotMakingThisUp Book Review: The Best Least Looked-Forward-To Book I Have Ever Received, John Cleese's "So, Anyway..."

    Jeff Matthews
    27 Dec 2014 | 8:27 am
     I received for Christmas the least looked-forward-to book I have ever received: John Cleese’s “So, Anyway…”.   Cleese, of course, is a founder of Monty Python, the wildly successful British comedy group that took male teenagers by storm in the early 1970s and was considered inheritor to The Beatles’ mantle as conquerors of America by none other than George Harrison (according to his friend Eric Idle, another Python).  Cleese is also co-creator, co-writer, producer and star of what has been called the best TV sitcom ever created, Fawlty Towers. …
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

  • Polish Voters Elect Eurosceptic President; Disenchantment with Brussels Spreads

    25 May 2015 | 10:58 am
    Andrzej Duda outed president Bronisław Komorowski, the pro-Brussels incumbent centrist Civic Platform party president, in an election over the weekend. Komorowski was expected to win. The Duda Victory Sent Shockwaves Through Polish Politics, and no doubt Brussels as well. The win for the socially conservative, nationalist, eurosceptic party, which saw Mr Duda oust Bronisław Komorowski, the government-backed incumbent from the presidential palace, represents a significant lurch to the right in Polish politics. It has sent shockwaves through the country’s political establishment that could…
  • Angry Voters Hand Spain’s Ruling Party Heavy Regional Losses; Podemos Scores Upset Victories in Barcelona, Madrid

    24 May 2015 | 4:44 pm
    The Spanish economy will supposedly grow at three percent. The bad news is Spanish employment is well over 20 percent and is also expected to stay that way.Angry voters unhappy with that setup took it out big time on PP, the party of prime minister Mariano Rajoy.Please consider PP Suffers Heavy Regional Losses. Spain’s ruling Popular party suffered heavy losses in Sunday’s string of regional and local elections, as two upstart movements made dramatic gains at the expense of the country’s established parties.The PP still emerged as the biggest party in nine of the 13 regional contests,…
  • Greece Will Default on June IMF Repayment Says Interior Minister; Greek Choice Same As It's Always Been

    24 May 2015 | 10:11 am
    One way or another the crisis in Greece is highly likely to come to a head in June.Greek finances are in such sorry shape it needs a third bailout or it will be unable to meet payment obligations in August. And unless an agreement in June is reached to unleash more funds, Greece will not make it to August. Today we learn, Interior minister warns Greece will default on June IMF repayment. Greece has again threatened to default on loan repayments due to the International Monetary Fund, saying it will be unable to meet pension and wage bills in June and also reimburse €1.6bn owed to the IMF…
  • Project Bookend: BoE Emails Guardian Top Secret Documents on Brexit, Including PR Notes on How to Deny the Project

    23 May 2015 | 9:49 am
    Incompetence at Its FinestHere's a major laugh for a long holiday weekend in the US: Secret Bank of England taskforce investigates financial fallout of BrexitBank of England officials are secretly researching the financial shocks that could hit Britain if there is a vote to leave the European Union in the forthcoming referendum.The Bank blew its cover on Friday when it accidentally emailed details of the project – including how the bank intended to fend off any inquiries about its work – direct to the Guardian.According to the confidential email, the press and most staff in Threadneedle…
  • Rand Paul: Unleashing the American Dream

    23 May 2015 | 9:23 am
    Those living in or near Chicago have the opportunity to hear Senator Rand Paul in a discussion about how to transform Chicago, the state of Illinois and the U.S. with liberty-based public policy solutions.Date:  Wednesday, May 27, 2015 from 12:30 PM to 2:00 PM (CDT)Location: The 1871 Center at the Merchandise Mart, 222 West Merchandise Mart Plaza Chicago, IL 60654.Cost of the event is $10.The topic is "Unequal economic opportunity, failing schools and a broken criminal-justice system," as opposed to the Chicago pension crisis that I have been talking about lately.Senator Paul is reaching…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Overcoming Bias

  • Elite Evaluator Rents

    Robin Hanson
    23 May 2015 | 9:25 am
    The elite evaluator story discussed in my last post is this: evaluators vary in the perceived average quality of the applicants they endorse. So applicants seek the highest ranked evaluator willing to endorse them. To keep their reputation, evaluators can’t consistently lie about the quality of those they evaluate. But evaluators can charge a price for their evaluations, and higher ranked evaluators can charge more. So evaluators who, for whatever reason, end up with a better pool of applicants can sustain that advantage and extract continued rents from it. This is a concrete plausible…
  • What Does Harvard Do Right?

    Robin Hanson
    17 May 2015 | 4:50 pm
    Is Harvard the top rated college because it is the most clever in deciding who to admit? Not obviously. Instead, in the short run Harvard can gain plenty from a positive feedback loop: the best people apply and prefer to go there, which adds a glow to those who graduate from there, which makes the best want to apply, and so on. While this seems an obvious and simple story, I must admit I haven’t been thinking enough in such terms, probably in part because I haven’t seen formal economic models that capture this story well. I thank venture capital (VC) titan Marc Andreessen…
  • Take Origins Seriously

    Robin Hanson
    13 May 2015 | 5:25 am
    We have a strong tendency to believe what we were taught to believe. This is a serious problem when we were taught different things. How can we rationally have much confidence in the beliefs we were taught, if we know that others were taught to believe other things? In order to overcome this bias, we either need to find a way to later question our initial teachings so well that we eliminate this correlation between our beliefs and our early teachings, or we need to find strong arguments for why one should expect more accurate beliefs to come from the source of our personal teaching,…
  • Why Happiness?

    Robin Hanson
    8 May 2015 | 12:30 pm
    You can’t be happier than the person you’re with. I’ve tried. It doesn’t go over well. Scott Adams Why did evolution makes us (sometimes) happy? One standard story, and in fact the only story I’ve found so far in a quick search, is that happiness is just our mind’s way of telling us what we want. We consciously want to be happy, and so to direct our behavior our subconscious tells us that we are happy doing what it wants us to do. But this can’t be the whole story. Not only are we well aware of wanting as a different feeling from happiness, we know of many…
  • What Is Signaling?

    Robin Hanson
    7 May 2015 | 1:50 pm
    Noah Smith complains about people like me: There’s a fad in the economics world that annoys me. The fad is to describe every human action as “signaling.” This has to stop, people. … It’s become fashionable in the economics world to label any and every human social interaction as a form of signaling. The most enthusiastic promoter of this way of thinking is GMU economist Robin Hanson. Fashion isn’t self-expression — it’s signaling. Leisure isn’t about fun — it’s about signaling. And so on. The problem is, this notion of “signaling” isn’t really what…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • An inundation of significance tests

    Andrew
    25 May 2015 | 7:18 am
    Jan Vanhove writes: The last three research papers I’ve read contained 51, 49 and 70 significance tests (counting conservatively), and to the extent that I’m able to see the forest for the trees, mostly poorly motivated ones. I wonder what the motivation behind this deluge of tests is. Is it wanton obfuscation (seems unlikely), a legalistic conception of what research papers are (i.e. ‘don’t blame us, we’ve run that test, too!’) or something else? Perhaps you know of some interesting paper that discusses this phenomenon? Or whether it has an established…
  • On deck this week

    Andrew
    25 May 2015 | 6:00 am
    Mon: An inundation of significance tests Tues: Stock, flow, and two smoking regressions Wed: What’s the worst joke you’ve ever heard? Thurs: Cracked.com > Huffington Post, Wall Street Journal, New York Times Fri: Measurement is part of design Sat: “17 Baby Names You Didn’t Know Were Totally Made Up” Sun: What to do to train to apply statistical models to political science and public policy issues The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • Chess + statistics + plagiarism, again!

    Andrew
    24 May 2015 | 6:23 am
    In response to this post (in which I noted that the Elo chess rating system is a static model which, paradoxically, is used to for the purposes of studying changes), Keith Knight writes: It’s notable that Glickman’s work is related to some research by Harry Joe at UBC, which in turn was inspired by data provided by Nathan Divinsky who was (wait for it) a co-author of one of your favourite plagiarists, Raymond Keene. In the 1980s, Keene and Divinsky wrote a book, Warriors of the Mind, which included an all-time ranking of the greatest chess players – it was actually Harry Joe…
  • Kaiser’s beef

    Andrew
    23 May 2015 | 7:35 am
    The Numbersense guy writes in: Have you seen this? It has one of your pet peeves… let’s draw some data-driven line in the categorical variable and show significance. To make it worse, he adds a final paragraph saying essentially this is just a silly exercise that I hastily put together and don’t take it seriously! Kaiser was pointing me to a news article by economist Justin Wolfers, entitled “Fewer Women Run Big Companies Than Men Named John.” Here’s what I wrote back to Kaiser: I took a look and it doesn’t seem so bad. Basically the sex difference is…
  • John Lott as possible template for future career of “Bruno” Lacour

    Andrew
    22 May 2015 | 11:33 am
    The recent story about the retracted paper on political persuasion reminded me of the last time that a politically loaded survey was discredited because the researcher couldn’t come up with the data. I’m referring to John Lott, the “economist, political commentator, and gun rights advocate” (in the words of Wikipedia) who is perhaps more well known on the internet by the name of Mary Rosh, an alter ego he created to respond to negative comments (among other things, Lott used the Rosh handle to refer to himself as “the best professor I ever had”). Again from…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Streetsblog New York City

  • NYC: Car-Free Parks: The Anticipation Builds

    Brad Aaron
    22 May 2015 | 12:41 pm
    When City Council members Mark Levine and Helen Rosenthal withdrew a bill that would have made the entire Central Park loop car-free for three summer months, the assumption was that City Hall was preparing to lead on the issue. “The council members have been working with the administration on this, and things are moving forward outside of the legislative process,” Rosenthal spokesperson Stephanie Buhle told Streetsblog in April. Last year, DOT repeated the Central Park plan from 2013, which cleared the loop north of 72nd Street from late June until Labor Day while allowing drivers…
  • NYC: If DOT Can Accelerate Street Repaving, It Can Accelerate Safety Projects

    Stephen Miller
    22 May 2015 | 10:41 am
    Mayor Bill de Blasio made a visit yesterday to one of the city’s more car-dependent areas, on Staten Island’s south shore, to tout an additional $242 million in his budget for street repaving. The additional money will bring the city’s repaving plan to a total 1,200 lane-miles through June 2016, a 20 percent boost over previous projections. That street might be smoother, but will it be any safer? Photo: NYC Mayor’s Office/Flickr Well-maintained streets are good news for bus riders, cyclists, and pedestrians in addition to motorists — but will the city take…
  • NYC: Friday Job Market

    Streetsblog
    22 May 2015 | 9:24 am
    Looking to hire a smart, qualified person for a position in transportation planning, engineering, IT, or advocacy? Post a listing on the Streetsblog Jobs Board and reach our national audience of dedicated readers. Looking for a job? Here are the current listings: Business Development Director, Via Transportation, NYC Via is on-demand transit on a mass scale. The Business Development Director — Platform will shape the development and drive the growth of Via’s platform business, which licenses Via’s technology to transit agencies. Business Development Principal, Via…
  • NYC: DOT Waffles on Bed-Stuy Ped Safety Project After Resistance From CB 3

    Stephen Miller
    22 May 2015 | 8:47 am
    A plan to improve safety at a busy Bedford-Stuyvesant intersection [PDF] may not move forward after members of Brooklyn Community Board 3 opposed it, according to two CB 3 transportation committee members. DOT buckled after Bed-Stuy community board members said pedestrian safety changes at this intersection would lead to traffic congestion. Image: DOT [PDF]DOT’s Claudette Workman revealed the news at the CB 3 transportation committee meeting on May 13, said Shawn Onsgard, a public member of the committee. “She just said [it] off the cuff,” he told Streetsblog. “She…
  • NYC: Today’s Headlines

    Stephen Miller
    22 May 2015 | 5:59 am
    Bath Beach SUV Driver Going in Reverse Kills Galina Shibayeva, 76 (News) De Blasio Visits Staten Island to Promote Increase in Street Repaving Budget (DNA, WCBS) …And Gets an Earful From a Man Who Likes Speeding (NYT, WSJ, News, Capital, Advance, AP) WCBS Spends Time With NYPD to Learn About Laser Speed Enforcement Second Avenue Subway Is More Than 80 Percent Complete; to Open December 2016 (WSJ, Post) ATU’s Larry Hanley Wants Improvements to Bus Design, Not Right of Way Charges (Post) Driver Injures Man in Woodhaven, Likely Suffering Broken Leg; No Charges (Forum) Vacca Backs…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The Big Picture

  • Are Polls Always “Skewed” Against Republicans?

    Bruce Bartlett
    25 May 2015 | 4:00 pm
    In my widely-discussed recent paper on Fox News, I suggested that its Republican bias was hurting the GOP in many ways. One specific example I raised on CNN’s “Reliable Sources” was that Republicans deluded themselves that Mitt Romney was doing better than he really was in 2012 due to cheerleading coverage on Fox, the only news source for many Republicans. Another reason is that many Republicans simply refused to believe the polls that consistently showed Romney well behind Barack Obama, believing instead a site called  “Unskewed Polls,” which adjusted national polls to show Romney…
  • 9,000 Years of Selective Breeding Makes Things Delicious

    Barry Ritholtz
    25 May 2015 | 1:30 pm
    Source: Vox
  • S&P 500: 25 Largest Company by Cash Holdings

    Barry Ritholtz
    25 May 2015 | 9:00 am
    Click for ginormous graphic
  • 10 Memorial Day Reads

    Barry Ritholtz
    25 May 2015 | 4:00 am
    Hope you are enjoying your long holiday weekend. Round it off with some early morning reads: • How Iraq has left us with the biggest financial bubble in history (Telegraph) • Fed chair affirms plans for rate hike this year (Wonkblog) • Piles of Overseas Profits Investors Can See but Not Touch (NYT) • Ignore the annual first quarter recession (TRB) • A Home Buyer’s Guide to a Seller’s Market (WSJ) • Terry Gross to Marc Maron: ‘Life Is Harder Than Radio (KQED) • How to Read A Book (Farnam Street) • Economists Offer These 10 Career Tips for Today’s Graduates…
  • The Hubble Telescope at 25

    Barry Ritholtz
    25 May 2015 | 3:00 am
    Photographing the furthest galaxy, some 13.3 billion lights years away is no problem for the Hubble Telescope. Its been orbiting the earth for 25 years, making some of the biggest discoveries known to man.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    OUPblog

  • A behind-the-scenes look at OUP’s recording sessions of new choral music for 2015

    Alice
    26 May 2015 | 1:30 am
    Bob Chilcott, as conductor, and John Rutter, as producer and engineer, join forces with some talented freelance professional singers in a church in Highgate, London every February. For three days these singers become The Oxford Choir, formed to record Oxford University Press’s latest choral publications so that choral directors worldwide can discover new repertoire. Clothed in thick jumpers and scarves, the choir sings through a few carols to get everyone warmed up. The expertise of the singers means we can record from the very first sing-through, with a few extra takes to find the style…
  • The biggest IPOs from across the globe

    Miranda Dobson
    26 May 2015 | 12:30 am
    In 2014, the Chinese corporation Alibaba Group famously released the world’s biggest US-listed IPO. IPO stands for ‘initial public offering‘ and represents the first sale of stock by a company to the public. There have been many instances of record-breaking IPOs from around the world – and as far back in history as 1602 – that also deserve our attention. Click on our interactive map below to discover more about the biggest IPOs from across the globe. Featured image: ‘Time Square’, by Riel Roussopoulos. CC-BY-NC-SA-2.0 via Flickr. The post The biggest…
  • Is Christian feminism an oxymoron?

    Carolyn Napolitano
    25 May 2015 | 5:30 am
    Is Christian feminism an oxymoron? For the past century or so, it’s often seemed that way. But it wasn’t all that long ago that many women not only considered Christianity and feminism compatible, but in fact believed each was essential to the other. Perhaps no figure makes this case more powerfully than Katharine Bushnell. An internationally-known anti-trafficking activist in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, Bushnell repeatedly encountered Christian men who had perpetrated acts of appalling cruelty against women, often without remorse or consequence. Ultimately, she concluded that…
  • Parsing schizophrenia

    Chloe Miller
    25 May 2015 | 3:30 am
    The effective treatment of schizophrenia has long presented a challenge to clinicians and scientists. Common misunderstandings around symptoms and behaviors, and inadequate approaches to diagnosis and physiology, have hindered significant progress for patients and professionals. However, with recent advances in both methodology and research, it might be possible to design specific treatment regimens to address the various forms of the illness. Personalized medicine for the individual with schizophrenia is on the horizon. The concept of schizophrenia began over a hundred years ago when Emil…
  • Did dark matter kill the dinosaurs?

    Yasmin Coonjah
    25 May 2015 | 2:30 am
    In 1980, Walter Alvarez and his group at the University of California, Berkeley, discovered a thin layer of clay in the geologic record, which contained an anomalous amount of the rare element iridium. They proposed that the iridium-rich layer was evidence of a massive comet hitting the Earth 66 million years ago, at the time of the extinction of the dinosaurs. The Alvarez group suggested that the global iridium-rich layer formed as fallout from an intense dust cloud raised by the impact event. The cloud of dust covered the Earth, producing darkness and cold, and lead to the extinction of 75%…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Cafe Hayek - Article Feed

  • Good Economists Ask Questions Such As These

    Don Boudreaux
    25 May 2015 | 6:35 am
    (Don Boudreaux) TweetThe University of Virginia School of Law’s great economist Charlie Goetz repeatedly said (at least when I was a student at UVA Law many years ago) that good economists are distinguished from poor economists (and from non-economists) by always asking “As compared to what?”  It’s a simple question, yet a profoundly important one. As I argued in this earlier post, to do good economics is chiefly to ask the right questions.  The good economist is an incessant questioner; the good economist is neither blinded nor numbed by the popularity of familiar…
  • Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    25 May 2015 | 4:44 am
    (Don Boudreaux) Tweet… is from page 110 of Daniel Griswold’s superb 2009 book, Mad About Trade (footnote excluded): What allowed the United States to pull ahead of Great Britain in total output was the huge increase in the stock of both capital and labor.  The capital came from domestic savings but also from abroad in the form of foreign investment, much of it from Britain itself.  The steady inflow of capital from abroad was the main reason why the United States ran almost continuous trade deficits through the second half of the 19th century.  Much of the expansion of labor…
  • More On the Economically Flawed Argument for Tolerance of Minimum Wages Set Locally

    Don Boudreaux
    24 May 2015 | 12:26 pm
    (Don Boudreaux) TweetLet’s continue to explore the argument that counsels humility when criticizing locally set (as opposed to nationally set) minimum-wage rates.  This argument (if I understand it correctly) is premised on the notion that, while national-government officials might well be too unlikely to know enough about the details of all the markets throughout the nation in order to be trusted to wisely set minimum wage rates nationally, local-government officials can plausibly know enough about the details of each of their jurisdictions in order to be trusted to set minimum-wage…
  • Swimming in Dangerous Policy Waters

    Don Boudreaux
    24 May 2015 | 6:40 am
    (Don Boudreaux) TweetTo advocate, or even to tolerate, minimum wages set locally rather than nationally is to misunderstand not only the economic argument against minimum wages, but, more generally, the economic argument counseling humility by government officials whose instincts are to intrude into the private economic affairs of ordinary people. Such advocacy of local minimum-wage regulation is much like pointing out, correctly, that an inexperienced swimmer is less likely to drown if he dives into 20 feet of rough water 100 yards from shore than if he dives into 50 feet of rough water a…
  • Quotation of the Day…

    Don Boudreaux
    24 May 2015 | 5:10 am
    (Don Boudreaux) Tweet… is from pages 56 of Angus Deaton’s 2013 book, The Great Escape: There is not a single country in the world where infant or child mortality today is not lower than it was in 1950.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Dollars & Sense Blog

  • New Issue!

    Chris Sturr
    17 May 2015 | 2:49 pm
      New issue!  Our May/June 2015 issue is out (for electronic subscribers; print subscribers will get their copies in about ten days).  We have posted one article from the issue, Marie Duggan’s timely piece A Way Out for Greece and Europe: Keynes’ Advice from the 1940s. Our page-two editorial note (written this time by my co-editor, Alejandro Reuss) is an unusually good guide to the issue this time, stitching together most of the articles in the issue under the (unplanned) theme of “Reform and Revolution”: Reform and Revolution For mainstream liberalism, it is an…
  • Monday Links: Rihanna, Baltimore, Jean Tirole, Private Equity

    Chris Sturr
    5 May 2015 | 10:56 am
    (1) Rihanna, American Oxygen. The video for this song from mega-pop-star Rihanna’s new album R8 is pretty interesting–with lyrics that seem to be about the so-called “American Dream,” and which could *almost* be a patriotic anthem, but with at least one line in some tension with that: “We sweat for a nickel and a dime, turn it into an empire.” This could be interpreted as the rags-to-riches hope for an “empire” of personal wealth (much like Rihanna’s, who is an immigrant from Barbados), but in the video, the word “empire” is…
  • Thursday Links: Buffett, Chicago/Illinois, Atlanta Teachers

    Chris Sturr
    9 Apr 2015 | 12:26 pm
    Here are today’s topics, in no particular order: (1) Warren Buffett, the Greedy Grandfather of Omaha:  Joe Nocera had a puff piece in the New York Times last March invitingly called  How Warren Buffett Does It, discussing the magic of Buffett’s “value investing.” Thankfully, lots of the online comments called b.s. on Nocera, pointing out the unseemly sources of some of Buffett’s wealth. Several comments mentioned the great work of David Cay Johnston, in whose 2012 book The Fine Print: How Big Companies Use “Plain English” and Other Tricks to Rob…
  • Siding with Wall Street’s “Winners”

    Chris Sturr
    27 Mar 2015 | 12:35 pm
    A piece by William D. Cohan in the current issue of Vanity Fair, Wall Street Executives from the Financial Crisis of 2008: Where Are They Now?, is pretty harsh on the bankers who lost their top positions in the 2008 meltdown (Jimmy Cayne of Bear Stearns, Stan O’Neil and John Thain of Merrill Lynch, Ken Lewis of BoA, Angelo Mozilo of Countrywide, Dick Fuld of Lehman), chronicling their downfalls, their enormous severance packages, much smaller amounts in fines and penalties they had to pay, the ginormous mansions or penthouses they now live in, and their refusal to speak with Cohan…
  • Macroeconomics in the Age of Climate Change

    Chris Sturr
    23 Mar 2015 | 2:00 pm
      The lectures and award ceremony for the 2015 Leontief Prize are happening tonight at 5:30pm. Here is information about this year’s prize winners.  Click here or on the image above for streaming video.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Credit Slips

  • Nortel: More Universalist Than Not

    Jay Lawrence Westbrook
    23 May 2015 | 10:26 am
    The Canadian and US courts have now ruled in the Nortel case. (Disclosure: I served as an expert for the UK pension interests in the case.) The case was already incredibly important because of an agreement among the parties to sell the worldwide assets of the corporate group without regard to territory or corporate ownership, creating a global pool of proceeds (about $7B) for distribution in such manner as agreed by the parties or as mandated by the two courts. (The UK court was not involved at this stage, which is an interesting point for another day.) A unified worldwide sale is a central…
  • Postpetition Wages Held by Chapter 13 Trustee Belong to Debtor Upon Conversion

    Pamela Foohey
    18 May 2015 | 12:08 pm
    In case you haven't seen it, the SCOTUS issued its unanimous opinion in Harris today, holding that postpetition wages held by the Chapter 13 trustee at the time a case is converted to Chapter 7 must be returned to the debtor. When the Fifth Circuit issued its decision that created the split with the Third Circuit, I blogged some thoughts, primarily focusing on statutory analysis. Now that the SCOTUS has weighed in, the practical question is: how can creditors protect themselves from the risk that the trustee will accumulate a large sum of postpetition wages? Today's opinion ends…
  • Shareholders in Chapter 11 Cases

    Stephen Lubben
    18 May 2015 | 6:43 am
    Now up on Dealb%k.
  • No Evading Illinois Pension Woes

    Jason Kilborn
    12 May 2015 | 1:53 pm
    The Illinois Supreme Court issued its unanimous opinion this past Friday putting a stake through the heart of the legislature's latest attempt to evade its responsibility for woefully underfunding four of the state's five public pensions. Adam (among others) has discussed the pension issue in the Detroit bankruptcy case and the Michigan constitutional provision protecting pension benefits from impairment. The Illinois Constitution of 1970 has an identical provision (art. XIII, s. 5), which will have much more bite in the case of the state of Illinois--an entity that, unlike Detroit,…
  • Bankruptcy and Student Loan Debt

    Adam Levitin
    11 May 2015 | 11:06 am
    My thoughts on whether the Bankruptcy Code should be amended to allow easier discharge of student loan debt are upon The Examiners at the Wall St. Journal. Short of it is yes for private student loans, no for public student loans. I'm sure to catch hell for this from some of the more aggressive student loan forgiveness advocates, given that most of the market is public student loans, but there are other restructuring and foregiveness options available for public loans and serious fairness problems with allowing discharge of existing student loans.  New borrowers shouldn't have to…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The Aleph Blog

  • Decline Free Food

    David Merkel
    25 May 2015 | 9:47 pm
    Photo Credit: Nic TaylorThere is no getting something for nothing.  There is always a cost involved, even if it is feeling vaguely obligated to listen to the person giving you a gift.  We are social creatures, and we want to favor people who are kind to us.I get a lot a pitches in the mail because I profile well to wealth managers and those like them.  The age, assets, income add up to a likely client, except that I am in a related business, and am not interested in making my assets less flexible, at least right now.My advice to you is that you do not respond to free gifts, whether it…
  • Possible Investment Contest

    David Merkel
    13 May 2015 | 1:20 am
    Photo Credit: Maryland GovPicsToday I saw an article about a high school investing contest, and like most contests of that type, it does not teach investing, but speculation.I’ve wanted to try this for about ten years or so.  I’d like to try running a stock picking contest, but only if I can offer decent prizes, and get enough participants.  I’ve written about this before, these would be the rules:No leverage and no shortingNo trading — buy & holdNo Exchange Traded Products, and only common stocksMinimum market capitalization of $100 millionOnly stocks traded on…
  • On Risk-Based Liquidity and Systemic Risk

    David Merkel
    8 May 2015 | 2:54 am
    image credit: trialsanderrorsI can’t help but think after the financial crisis that we have drawn some wrong conclusions about systemic risk. Systemic risk is when the financial system as a whole threatens to fail, such that short-term obligations can’t be paid out in full.  It is not a situation where only big entities fail — the critical factor is whether it creates a run on liquidity across the system as a whole.Why does a bank fail?  It can’t pay in full when there was a demand for liquidity in the short run.  Typically, there is an asset-liability mismatch,…
  • On Partnership Investing

    David Merkel
    7 May 2015 | 12:32 am
    Image Credit: Aidan JonesTonight’s topic comes from a note sent to me by a friend. Here it is:David, I have heard you say that you have entered into partnerships in the past.  What are your rules for partnerships, who will you enter with?  I have a neighbor who is interested in starting a business, the start up cash is small $5000.  I think there might be good opportunity, but I am concerned for good reason about my time availability, as well as Not being “unequally yoked”.  What business relations do Paul’s words govern.  do you have different rules for minority,…
  • The SEC Pursues a Fool’s Errand

    David Merkel
    6 May 2015 | 2:34 am
    Photo Credit: arsheffieldI imagine the SEC (or the Fed, IRS, or the FSOC) saying: “If we only have enough data, we can answer the policy questions that we are interested in, create better policy, prosecute bad guys, and regulate markets well.”If they deigned to listen to an obscure quantitative analyst like me, I would tell them that it is much harder than that.  Data is useless without context and interpretation.  First, you have to have the right models of behavior, and understand the linkages between disparate markets.  Neoclassical economics will not be helpful here,…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Quoting the Crisis

  • To save free trade, kill TPP Cory Doctorow, boingboing.net The...

    25 May 2015 | 9:03 am
    To save free trade, kill TPP Cory Doctorow, boingboing.net The enemies of the Trans Pacific Partnership don’t necessarily oppose free trade, but they’re foursquare against the kind of corrupt, secretive negotiations that line the pockets of favored industries at the public’s expense.Trade deals like NA…
  • Amazon will finally start paying tax in the UK Cory Doctorow,...

    24 May 2015 | 10:13 am
    Amazon will finally start paying tax in the UK Cory Doctorow, boingboing.net The company will abandon the pretense that its UK sales are consummated in Luxembourg and that the money floats in a state of taxless grace in the middle of the Irish Sea.The move isn’t entirely voluntary, of course. As of this April, companies…
  • What Does ‘Middle Class’ Even Mean? Gillian B....

    6 May 2015 | 9:29 am
    What Does ‘Middle Class’ Even Mean? Gillian B. White, theatlantic.com The gap between the richest and poorest in the U.S. is so wide that more Americans have started to assign themselves to lower socioeconomic groups.If you had to place yourself in a socioeconomic class, where would you land? That’s a tricky and…
  • China makes big cut in bank reserve requirement to fight...

    19 Apr 2015 | 2:59 pm
    China makes big cut in bank reserve requirement to fight slowdowntheglobeandmail.com China’s central bank on Sunday cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, the second industry-wide cut in two months, adding more liquidity to the world’s second-biggest economy to help spur bank lending and combat slowing growth.
  • Greek banks are stuck on life support — and time is running...

    12 Apr 2015 | 10:29 pm
    Greek banks are stuck on life support — and time is running out Tomas Hirst, businessinsider.com With the situation in Greece looking increasingly grim, the European Central Bank has been repeatedly raising its emergency lending to the country’s shattered banks.But the one thing it wanted to avoid was allowing emergency liquidity…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    24/7 Wall St.

  • Oil Refiners Turning Crude Oil Glut into Profits

    Paul Ausick
    25 May 2015 | 6:26 am
    Refinery demand for crude oil is at a record high for this time of year, just in time for the beginning of the summer driving season. U.S. production has dropped to a three-month low and the draw on...
  • 5 Turnaround Companies That Came Back From the Brink of Disaster

    247chrislange
    25 May 2015 | 5:54 am
    With the bull market now over six years old, investors have to have considered on multiple occasions which stocks are still offering great value and which ones may need to be reconsidered. That often...
  • What to Do, or Not Do, If You Win the $154 Million Powerball Jackpot

    Paul Ausick
    25 May 2015 | 5:25 am
    Many Americans imagine winning millions of dollars overnight in the various lotteries that have spread to virtually every corner of the country. Better yet, imagine winning over $150 million! On...
  • 5 Key Earnings Previews For the Week Ahead

    247chrislange
    25 May 2015 | 4:45 am
    24/7 Wall St. has put together a preview of some of the larger companies reporting their quarterly results in the last week of May. We have reviewed the consensus earnings estimates from Thomson...
  • Graduate Gifts Cost $4.77 Billion

    Paul Ausick
    25 May 2015 | 4:43 am
    Nearly a third of U.S. adults bought a gift for at least one graduate this year, spending an estimated $4.77 billion in the process, an all-time high. The most popular gift? Cash, something every...
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The Baseline Scenario

  • Over at Medium: Organized Crime on Wall Street

    James Kwak
    22 May 2015 | 8:23 am
    By James Kwak One of the central dramas of the early seasons of The Wire is the cat-and-mouse game between Avon Barksdale’s drug operation and the detectives of the Major Crimes Unit. The drug dealers started off using pagers and pay phones. When the police tapped the pagers and the phones, Barksdale’s people switched to “burner” cell phones that they threw away before the police could tap them. By Season 4, Proposition Joe advised Marlo Stanfield not to use phones at all. Well, apparently, Wall Street currency traders don’t watch The Wire. I don’t think anyone was surprised to…
  • Why Is The White House Threatening To Veto An Imaginary Trade Promotion Authority (TPA)?

    Simon Johnson
    21 May 2015 | 3:33 pm
    By Simon Johnson At today’s daily briefing, White House spokesman Josh Earnest communicated the president’s threat to veto any trade promotion authority (TPA) that “could undermine the independence or ability of the Federal Reserve to make monetary policy decisions”.  (The question was posed at minute 42:50, Mr. Earnest’s answer starts at 43:31, and the lead up to this quote starts around 45:20.) Mr. Earnest’s statement seems clear enough, but what potential TPA is he talking about?  Either the White House is confused or some other communications strategy is at work here. …
  • Over at Medium: “Payout Baby!!!”

    James Kwak
    21 May 2015 | 1:00 pm
    By James Kwak “In my many years of experience working in compliance, do you know how many fixed and variable annuities I’ve seen being invested in IRAs??? Countless. “Investing a tax deferred investment within a tax deferred account simply does not make sense, except for very very few exceptions. … And when brokers answered me honestly as to why they picked annuities over mutual funds or even plain vanilla stocks??? Payout baby!!!” That’s a compliance officer at Wells Fargo talking about the kinds of abuses that brokers — who advise clients about where to put their money,…
  • The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): This Is Not About Ricardo

    Simon Johnson
    21 May 2015 | 3:06 am
    By Simon Johnson and Andrei Levchenko The Obama administration is lobbying hard for Congress to pass a trade promotion authority (TPA) and to quickly approve the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a free trade agreement that is on the verge of being finalized. The administration and its supporters on this issue, including leading Republicans, argue that the case for TPP rests on basic economic principles and is only strengthened by the findings of modern research.  On both counts their claims are greatly exaggerated – particularly with regard to the notion that more trade, on these terms, is…
  • Preventing Currency Manipulation

    Simon Johnson
    19 May 2015 | 6:31 pm
    By Simon Johnson As Congress debates the trade promotion authority, TPA, the issue of currency manipulation remains firmly on the table.  The administration and Republican leadership insist that language discouraging currency manipulation should not be included in the TPA (and also not in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP, a trade agreement currently under negotiation).  Many Democrats and Republicans continue to argue in favor of prohibiting currency manipulation. On Tuesday, the Treasury Department and White House claimed that the amendment proposed by Senators Rob Portman (R., Ohio) and…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Trends... Find them, ride them and get off.

  • The Stocktwits Transportation Index…Uber is worth MORE Than Federal Express and Should be Included

    Howard Lindzon
    25 May 2015 | 11:42 am
    I have one market theory…the tape is good or bad. Technology has been factored into almost all industries and because the world is socially and mobile connected. The one that lags behind the most is Wall Street. Yes, Wall Street has given us derivatives, 4x leverage ETF’s, HFT’s and a crowd around the one pipe at The Fed, but they will never catch up to the world in mobile and social. Wall Street, in the era of social leverage, is left to hoarding, scheming and chasing and the individual has an unprecedented edge. Here is one recent example of noise… Most investors…
  • My Week in Beijing…

    Howard Lindzon
    23 May 2015 | 4:47 pm
    Sunny skies, good food, great hotels, great internet entrepreneurs, Starbucks, Dairy Queen…pretty much the same as Silicon Valley. I lived the good life in Beijing while attending the RenRen (RENN) fintech CEO summit. I stayed at the Hotel Eclat which is one of the most modern and luxurious hotels I have ever stayed. Most people spoke great english. I had the great fortune of sunny and mostly clear skies. I visited the Great Wall of China (fantastic) and the Forbidden City (meh). I was treated to a deep dive in the culture of Chinese internet startups. It was fascinating to hear and…
  • Off to China…and Will The Nasdaq Beat Bitcoin to 6,000?

    Howard Lindzon
    18 May 2015 | 1:00 pm
    I am headed off the grid in Beijing for my first time. I was invited by Renn Renn (RENN) to a Fintech CEO Palooza. Renn Renn has been investing heavily in the global Fintech space and I am excited to meet all the CEO’s, learn a few things about life and business in China and network. I imagine when I come home a ‘Millennial’ will be president. Amazingly I can write and post this live from an airplane…more impressive it’s United Airlines. Not much in the markets makes sense to me these days. I am long and have no idea why prices just keep going up. I honestly…
  • Sell in May and Go Away?

    Howard Lindzon
    8 May 2015 | 8:48 am
    Looks that way to me. Take a look at this $10,000 portfolio since 1957: Sell in May and go away??? …It's worked since 1957: source: @LanceRoberts — Shane Obata-Marusic (@sobata416) May. 7 at 03:14 PM Of course, let’s not forget taxes, but I imagine even with those backed in the differential is very meaningful and for tax free retirement accounts it may just make sense to have a simple timing plan like this. The post Sell in May and Go Away? appeared first on Trends... Find them, ride them and get off..
  • Robinhood – I Love When a Plan Comes Together

    Howard Lindzon
    7 May 2015 | 8:13 am
    Robinhood announced their Series B today of $50 million. We (SocialLeverage) are very excited to be able to participate in the round as we did as Angels and the Series A. I have written at length about why we love Robinhood. Here and here for starters. TechCrunch has some more details on this particular round, the product and use of proceeds. I have had such a great time watching the Robinhood team grow and execute. I have regular conversations with Baiju and Vlad the founders, I have been able to help them with strategy, recruit, introduce to capital and as a bonus, they spend time with the…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Economic Principals

  • An Odd Couple

    dw
    24 May 2015 | 2:00 pm
    All that summer of 2008, decision-makers in Washington, D.C., were hoping for a soft landing – or so they said at the time. That was, after all, what happened in 1998, after the Russian debt crisis; or in March 2000, when the dot-com bubble collapsed. That speculative frenzy in tech-stock prices was punctured in the usual fashion, by upward pressure on interest rates applied by the Federal Reserve Board. NASDAQ prices crashed but nothing else did – an eight-month recession was barely noticeable, before the economy was growing again. Now there was a housing bubble. So the authorities hoped…
  • The Tardy Product

    dw
    17 May 2015 | 1:56 pm
    You could say, here at the beginning, that this is a story about three Great Depressions – the one that happened in the twentieth century; another that didn’t, in the twenty-first; and a third, presumptive one that threatens indistinctly sometime in the years ahead.  Most people recognize that Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues somehow saved the day in 2008.*  Journalists speculate whether he might eventually deserve a Nobel Prize. Indeed, Bernanke and his European colleagues may well deserve the Nobel Prize — for Peace.  The misery that would have…
  • New Departures

    dw
    10 May 2015 | 5:59 pm
    This week Economic Principals appears on its website in a new guise. The redesign reflects some changes in the underlying WordPress software designed to make EP easier to read on tablets and smart phones. The Comment function that permitted a malware infestation in the winter is gone.  I was never very comfortable with it anyway. Although EP appears online, it is a weekly column, not a blog. I have added a Letters page. If you have something substantive to say, send it along and I’ll put it up. The new look reflects a change in stance as well.  Let me explain EP started out in 1983 in The…
  • Grateful in Baltimore

    pishposhdesign
    9 May 2015 | 1:41 pm
    The news out of Baltimore suggests some interesting lessons about the possibilities for meliorism. That’s what Boston intellectuals called their belief in progress, in the days before the relevant part of metaphysics became known, first as liberalism, and, recently, as progressivism. Ralph Waldo Emerson, William James, John Dewey and Martin Luther King Jr. were meliorists. The news from Baltimore had seemed pretty bleak until Friday, when a 35-year-old city prosecutor brought charges against six police officers involved in the death of Freddie Gray last month. An attorney for the Fraternal…
  • Sauce for the Gander

    dw
    26 Apr 2015 | 12:59 pm
    The early stages of the presidential campaign are unfolding as expected.  Jeb Bush is irritating his party’s right wing by periodically praising President Obama. Otherwise he remains as elusive as possible, in view of the gantlet of Red State primaries he must run in order to receive the Republican nomination. Then he can run to the center in the general election. To make this point last week, Washington Post campaign correspondent Ed O’Keefe reached back to an interview that Bush gave Charlie Rose in 2012: “I don’t have to play the game of being 100,000 percent against President…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Marginal REVOLUTION

  • *Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future*

    Tyler Cowen
    25 May 2015 | 11:10 pm
    That is the new book by Ashlee Vance, and so far it is the book I have enjoyed most this year.  Highly recommended. Here is a short piece on how Elon Musk created a separate school just for his kids.
  • The Great Stagnation spreads

    Tyler Cowen
    25 May 2015 | 10:16 pm
    Chris Giles and Sam Fleming at the FT report: Output per worker grew last year at its slowest rate since the millennium, with a slowdown evident in almost all regions, underscoring how the problem of lower productivity growth is now taking on global proportions. The Conference Board, a think-tank, said that based on official data on output and employment from most countries, only India and sub-Saharan Africa enjoyed faster labour productivity growth last year. Globally, the rate of growth decelerated to 2.1 per cent in 2014, compared with an annual average of 2.6 per cent between 1999 and…
  • Paul Krugman on productivity stagnation

    Tyler Cowen
    25 May 2015 | 10:49 am
    That is the topic of his column today, I had not seen this very good point before: One possibility is that the numbers are missing the reality, especially the benefits of new products and services. I get a lot of pleasure from technology that lets me watch streamed performances by my favorite musicians, but that doesn’t get counted in G.D.P. Still, new technology is supposed to serve businesses as well as consumers, and should be boosting the production of traditional as well as new goods. The big productivity gains of the period from 1995 to 2005 came largely in things like inventory…
  • Monday assorted links

    Tyler Cowen
    25 May 2015 | 8:53 am
    1. Japanese planned markets in everything uh-oh. 2. I still prefer MapQuest. 3. And I thought rice was an inferior good. 4. How far can a Montrealer go on a hoverboard?  (guess before clicking) 5. Short video of John Nash’s recent meeting with Magnus Carlsen. 6. “…economists starting or graduating from their PhD in a recession are significantly more productive in academia over the long term than economists starting or graduating in a boom.” (speculative) 7. Is China launching the world’s biggest fiscal stimulus (again)? 8. Indians.
  • China fact of the day

    Tyler Cowen
    25 May 2015 | 12:14 am
    Given that non-financial total corporate debt is estimated by McKinsey to amount to $12.5tn, Chinese companies are paying on a nominal basis some $812bn in interest payments each year. In real terms, this amounts to $1.35tn. This is not only significantly more than China’s projected total industrial profits this year; it is slightly bigger than the size of a large emerging economy such as Mexico. The entire FT discussion is here.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality...

  • Links and Tweets...

    J. Bradford DeLong
    26 May 2015 | 9:37 pm
    Links: Matt Grossmann and David A. Hopkins: "The Republican Party is primarily the agent of an ideological movement whose supporters prize doctrinal purity, while the Democratic Party is better understood as a coalition of social groups seeking concrete government action. This asymmetry is reinforced by American public opinion, which favors left-of-center positions on most specific policy issues yet simultaneously shares the general conservative preference for smaller and less active government..." Bernie Sanders: 'Our Democracy is Being Owned by a Handful of Billionaires' Nancy LeTourneau:…
  • Walrus Cam Video

    J. Bradford DeLong
    25 May 2015 | 12:46 pm
    Walrus Cam - Round Island - Oceans - explore:
  • Monday Smackdown Watch: Robert Waldmann Defends Janet Yellen from Brad DeLong

    J. Bradford DeLong
    25 May 2015 | 8:30 am
    Over at Equitable Growth: Robert Waldmann: In Which I try to Defend Janet Yellen from Brad DeLong: "Fed Chair Janet Yellen said, among other things: For this reason, if the economy continues to improve as I expect, I think it will be appropriate at some point this year to take the initial step to raise the federal funds rate target and begin the process of normalizing monetary policy. To support taking this step, however, I will need to see continued improvement in labor market conditions, and I will need to be reasonably confident that inflation will move back to 2 percent over the medium…
  • Noted for Your Morning Procrastination for May 25, 2015

    J. Bradford DeLong
    25 May 2015 | 8:02 am
    Must- and Should-Reads: Richard Thaler: Unless You Are Spock, Irrelevant Things Matter in Economic Behavior Social Credit! Mark Blyth, Eric Lonergan and Simon Wren-Lewis: Now the Bank of England needs to deliver QE for the people. We propose that the government legislates to empower the Bank with the ability to make payments directly to the household sector... Must-Read: Christopher L. Foote and Christopher F. Goetz (2005): The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime: Comment Must-Read: Nicholas Bagley: Wreck the RUC Must-Read: William Lazonick: Stock buybacks: From retain-and reinvest to…
  • 25 May 2015 | 6:54 am

    J. Bradford DeLong
    25 May 2015 | 6:54 am
    Comment of the Day: Kip W on G.K. Chesterton: " I have enjoyed Chesterton's Father Brown series a good deal... ...but I get a whiff from it now and then that makes the simple man of faith and his universe seem like a bit of a stacked deck, and this makes me sad. Of course, all freethinkers are idiots or knaves in his world (though he does have barbs for those who take too much on authority, it seems). Then there's N. Ned, the black boxer who figures highly in 'The God of the Gongs.' Ned is his first name, N. stands for his descriptor, the n- word. Chesterton goes full jacket racist on Ned (I…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Dani Rodrik's weblog

  • The War of Trade Models

    Dani Rodrik
    4 May 2015 | 12:02 pm
    There is an interesting debate going on in Europe about the likely consequences of the TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership). Much of the real debate is (or should be) about the proposed Investor-State dispute resolution (ISDS) and the desirability of regulatory harmonization when nations have different preferences about how these regulations should be designed. But there is also a fascinating numbers game going on, with alternative quantitative estimates deployed by pro- and anti-TTIP groups. The studies used by the pro group tend to show positive, if small, GDP effects.
  • Turkish economic myths

    Dani Rodrik
    16 Apr 2015 | 7:16 am
    Preparing for a panel discussion on Turkey gave me the opportunity of putting together some notes and slides on the country’s economy. That Turkey is not doing well at the moment, economically or politically, is well known. But the roots of the problem remain misunderstood. Many analysts blame the weakening of “structural reforms” (on economics) and the turn towards authoritarianism after the Gezi protests in 2013 (on the politics). See for example here. In truth, Turkey’s problems on both fronts predate the recent slowdown in growth and have been long ingrained in the governing…
  • Premature deindustrialization in the developing world

    Dani Rodrik
    12 Feb 2015 | 5:56 am
    Mention “deindustrialization,” and the image that comes to mind is that of advanced economies making their way into the post-industrial phase of development. In a new paper,[1] I show that the more dramatic trend is one of deindustrialization in the developing countries. This is a trend that is appropriately called premature deindustrialization, since it means that many (if not most) developing nations are becoming service economies without having had a proper experience of industrialization. Latin America appears to be the worst hit region. But worryingly similar trends are very much in…
  • Greek elections, democracy, political trilemma, and all that

    Dani Rodrik
    7 Jan 2015 | 6:37 am
    Two-and-a-half years ago I wrote a short piece titled "The End of the World as We Know It" which began like this: Consider the following scenario. After a victory by the left-wing Syriza party, Greece’s new government announces that it wants to renegotiate the terms of its agreement with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union. German Chancellor Angela Merkel sticks to her guns and says that Greece must abide by the existing conditions. Fearing that a financial collapse is imminent, Greek depositors rush for the exit. This time, the European Central Bank refuses to…
  • Levels of intellectual responsibility

    Dani Rodrik
    3 Jan 2015 | 7:18 am
    This piece on “Erdogan’s Willing Enablers” prompts me to put down a few thoughts on the role that various members of the Turkish media and intelligentsia have played in enabling the steady deterioration of the political climate in Turkey over the last decade. What stands out with these intellectuals is that, even if they were not in all cases liberal in outlook, they all claimed to espouse values consistent with Western democracy: respect for human rights, civil liberties, and the rule of law.    I don’t want to go over the entire saga of how leading Turkish intellectuals…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    99% Invisible

  • 165- The Nutshell Studies

    Roman Mars
    19 May 2015 | 9:47 pm
    The Office of the Chief Medical Examiner in Baltimore, Maryland is a busy place. Anyone who dies unexpectedly in the state of Maryland will end up there for an autopsy. On an average day, they might perform twelve autopsies; on more hectic day, they might do more than twenty. But there’s one room on the fourth floor that sits apart from the buzz of normal activity. It feels a bit like an art gallery. This room houses the “Nutshell Studies of Unexplained Death.”
  • 164- The Post-Billiards Age

    Roman Mars
    12 May 2015 | 9:33 pm
    We live in a post-billiards age. There was an age of billiards, and it has been over for so long, most of us have no idea how huge billiards once was. For many decades, starting in the mid-19th Century, billiards was the one of the most popular amusements. A hundred years ago, there were 830 pool halls in the city of Chicago. Today, there are ten. Billiards is not what it used to be—but we continue to live in a world affected by its former prominence. The growth of billiards led to the development of a material that would come to define the modern world. Without billiards, we might…
  • 163- The Gruen Effect

    Roman Mars
    5 May 2015 | 8:06 pm
    Retail spaces are designed for impulse shopping. When you go to a store looking for socks and come out with a new shirt, it’s only partly your fault.  Shops are trying to look so beautiful, so welcoming, the items so enticingly displayed and in such vast quantity, that the consumer will start buying compulsively. This is the Gruen Effect. Producer Avery Trufelman spoke with Jeff Hardwick, author of Mall Maker: Victor Gruen, Architect of an American Dream, and Ellen Dunham Jones author of Retrofitting Suburbia.
  • 162- Mystery House

    Roman Mars
    28 Apr 2015 | 11:59 am
    According to legend, Sarah Winchester’s friends advised the grieving widow to seek the services of a Boston spiritual medium named Adam Koombs. The story goes, Koombs put Mrs. Winchester in touch with her deceased husband—but William had bad news. He told Sarah Winchester that she would always be haunted by the spirits who had been killed by Winchester rifles. Speaking through Koombs, William Winchester instructed Sarah to placate the spirits by building a structure that would perpetually grow to shelter the ever-increasing number of Winchester rifle victims. And if she did this,…
  • 161- Show of Force

    Roman Mars
    21 Apr 2015 | 9:28 pm
    During World War II, a massive recruitment effort targeted students from the top art schools across the country. These young designers, artists, and makers were being asked to help execute a wild idea that came out of one the nation’s most conservative organizations: the United States Army. The crazy idea was this: The United States Army would design a “deception unit”: a unit that would appear to the enemy as a large armored division with tanks, trucks, artillery, and thousands of soldiers. But this unit would actually be equipped only with fake tanks, fake trucks, fake…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Eat the Bankers.com

  • Proactive in the Face of Volatility

    Sinclair Noe
    22 May 2015 | 2:47 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 53 = 18,232 SPX – 4 = 2126 NAS – 1 = 5089 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.21% OIL – .78 = 59.94 GOLD SILV   Central bankers are speaking out. Earlier today, Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank reiterated his call for euro zone countries to reform their economies, warning that future growth would remain modest. Draghi said: “It should…be clear that the argument that accommodative monetary policy constitutes an excuse for governments and parliaments to postpone their reform efforts is incorrect. Recently, economic…
  • A Tight Range

    Sinclair Noe
    21 May 2015 | 3:09 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 0.34 = 18,285 SPX + 4 = 2130.82 NAS + 19 = 5090 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.18% OIL + 1.71 = 60.69 GOLD – 3.00 = 1207.80 SILV + .05 = 17.23   The S&P 500 closed at a record high today.   We had a slew of economic data this morning. The leading economic index rose 0.7% in April, indicating the US economy is still expanding.   Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 274,000 for the week ended May 16. Despite last week’s increase, claims remained below 300,000, a threshold associated…
  • Ongoing Criminal Enterprises

    Sinclair Noe
    20 May 2015 | 3:41 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair noe DOW – 26 = 18,285 SPX – 1 = 2125 NAS + 1 = 5071 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.25% OIL + .77 = 58.76 GOLD + 1.80 = 1210.80 SILV un = 17.18   April 29 and 30 the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee met to determine monetary policy; today, they published the minutes of that meeting. There were no surprises. Policymakers have no plans to increase interest rate targets in June. We all knew that. Officials in April “had increased uncertainty regarding the economic outlook,” the minutes showed. They had no good reason to explain why consumer…
  • Another Record

    Sinclair Noe
    19 May 2015 | 3:37 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 13 = 18,312.39 (record) SPX – 1 = 2127 NAS – 8 = 5070 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.26% OIL – 2.17 = 57.26 GOLD – 17.80 = 1209.00 SILV – .61 = 17.17   Record high for the Dow Industrials.   Construction starts on new U.S. homes was up 20% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.14 million. That’s the biggest monthly percentage gain in over 24 years and the highest level since November 2007.  Total housing starts remain far below an average pace of about 1.5 million over the 20 years leading up to the housing bubble’s 2006 peak.
  • Milk and Cookies

    Sinclair Noe
    18 May 2015 | 3:59 pm
    Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 26 = 18,298.99 (record) SPX + 6 = 2129.20 (record) NAS + 30 =  5078 10 YR YLD + .09 = 2.23% OIL – .14 = 59.55 GOLD + 2.30 = 1226.80 SILV + .19 = 17.78   Record high close for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Whenever the S&P 500 hits a record high close we mention it. Whenever the Dow hits a record high close we have a celebration with milk and cookies. Our reasoning is that we never know if or when we will see another record high close. Sure, the Dow could hit another record high tomorrow, or it might falter and it…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    iMFdirect - The IMF Blog

  • Flash Crashes and Swiss Francs: Market Liquidity Takes a Holiday

    iMFdirect
    20 May 2015 | 1:00 am
    By José Viñals Financial market liquidity can be fleeting. The ability to trade in assets of any size, at any time and to find a ready buyer is not a given.  As discussed in some detail last fall in this blog, a number of factors, including the evolving structure of financial markets and some regulations appear to have pushed liquidity into a new realm: markets look susceptible to episodes of high price volatility where liquidity suddenly vanishes. In our April 2015 Global Financial Stability Report we identify a new aspect to the problem:  asset price correlations have risen sharply in…
  • Act Local, Solve Global: The $5.3 Trillion Energy Subsidy Problem

    iMFdirect
    18 May 2015 | 6:32 am
    By Benedict Clements and Vitor Gaspar (Versions in 中文, Français, 日本語, Русский and Español) US$5.3 trillion; 6½ percent of global GDP—that is our latest reckoning of the cost of energy subsidies in 2015. These estimates are shocking. The figure likely exceeds government health spending across the world, estimated by the World Health Organization at 6 percent of global GDP, but for the different year of 2013. They correspond to one of the largest negative externality ever estimated. They have global relevance. And that’s not all: earlier work by the IMF also shows…
  • Global Energy Subsidies Are Big—About US$5 Trillion Big

    iMFdirect
    18 May 2015 | 6:31 am
    By Sanjeev Gupta and Michael Keen (Versions in 中文, Français, 日本語, Русский and Español) In their blog, Ben Clements and Vitor Gaspar make the points that global energy subsidies are still very substantial, that there is a strong need for reform in many countries, and that now is a great time to do it. This blog sets out what we mean by “energy subsidies,” provides details on their estimation, and explains how they continue to be high despite the recent drop in international energy prices (Chart 1). Our latest update of global energy subsidies shows that “pre-tax”…
  • Commodity Blues: Corporate Investment in Latin America

    iMFdirect
    12 May 2015 | 8:43 am
    By Nicolás Magud (Versions in Español and Português) Private investment has been decelerating throughout emerging markets since mid-2011, and Latin America has been no exception (see Chart 1). This trend has raised concerns not only because weaker investment has played an important role in the broader regional slowdown, but also because Latin America’s investment rates were lower than in most other regions even before the slowdown began. This blog looks at the drivers of corporate investment and highlights the extent to which falling commodity export prices have contributed to lower…
  • Securitization: Restore Credit Flow to Revive Europe’s Small Businesses

    iMFdirect
    7 May 2015 | 6:58 am
    By Shekhar Aiyar, Bergljot Barkbu, and Andreas (Andy) Jobst If financing is the lifeblood of European small businesses, then the effect of the financial crisis was similar to a cardiac arrest. The flow of affordable credit from banks was choked off and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) were hit hardest. Today, with bank lending still recovering from that shock, smart policy actions could open up securitization as a source of financing to help small businesses start up, flourish and grow. SMEs are vital to the European economy. They account for 99 out of every 100 businesses, two in…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    WordPress.com News

  • Street Photography: Seven Photos

    Krista
    22 May 2015 | 9:00 am
    It’s no secret that I love to pore through the street photography tag in the WordPress.com Reader and share images that catch my attention. Join me on another trip around the world as seen through the eyes (and lenses!) of these seven skilled photographers. This arresting image of a bird in a car — juxtaposed against the unknowing elderly man passing by — mesmerizes me. Taken by Beirut photographer Ghaleb Cabbabé, there’s an element of the macabre about this photograph that I find intriguing. The odd bird and the filthy windscreen create a certain palpable sinister…
  • Eventbrite Now Available for All of WordPress.com

    Kirk Wight
    12 May 2015 | 11:00 am
    We’re excited to announce big updates to our Eventbrite integration: your events can now be displayed right on your WordPress.com site, no matter what theme you use! Enjoy Eventbrite, regardless of theme In 2013, we launched two Eventbrite themes to help you promote your events. Since then, we’ve gotten requests from users to extend that functionality more broadly on WordPress.com. Today, we’ve rolled out our Eventbrite integration to all users, which means you are no longer limited to only using the Eventbrite themes to promote your events. You can now connect to…
  • New Theme: Gazette

    Thomas Guillot
    7 May 2015 | 10:00 am
    It’s Theme Thursday, and we’re happy to launch a brand new free theme. Gazette Gazette, designed by yours truly, is a clean and flexible theme perfectly suited for minimalist magazine-style sites, personal blogs, or any content-rich site. It allows you to highlight specific articles on the homepage, and to balance readability with a powerful use of photography — all in a layout that works on any device. Gazette also supports the following popular features: Custom Colors, Custom Header, Custom Menu, Social Links, Site Logo, Featured Images, and Widgets. Read more about Gazette on the…
  • New Themes: Nucleare and Afterlight

    Caroline Moore
    30 Apr 2015 | 11:00 am
    Nucleare Nucleare, by Cresta Project, is a classic blog theme with a crisp, elegant design and plenty of handy features. A built-in search box, links to your favorite social networks, four widget areas, and beautifully styled post formats make this an ideal theme for your personal blog. Check out Nucleare on the Theme Showcase, or activate it on your site from Appearance → Themes. Afterlight Afterlight, designed by Takashi Irie, is a different take on his Cyanotype, featuring an option for a full-screen background image. Add your favorite background image or color to lend your personal…
  • All WordPress.com Sites Protected Against Zero Day Vulnerability

    Krista
    27 Apr 2015 | 12:35 pm
    You may have seen news of a new zero-day vulnerability regarding comments in self-hosted versions of WordPress 4.2. All WordPress.com sites — including WordPress.com VIP sites — are not vulnerable: your WordPress.com sites are protected by the Akismet anti-spam service, which is already blocking those comments.Filed under: Security
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Carl Futia

  • Guesstimates on May 22, 2015

    22 May 2015 | 6:01 am
    June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2115-2127. I still think the ES is headed for 2146. However a drop below 2113 would mean that the market is headed into the 2180-2100 range first.QQQ:  Upside target is 113. TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market is headed up to 3.00%. Euro-US Dollar:  The Euro is now headed for 1.18-19.  Support is at 1.10.Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone. July Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and…
  • Guesstimates on May 21, 2015

    21 May 2015 | 6:11 am
    June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2113-2126. I still think the ES is headed for 2146. However a drop below 2113 would mean that the market is headed into the 2180-2100 range first.QQQ:  Upside target is 113. TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market is headed up to 3.00%. Euro-US Dollar:  The Euro is now headed for 1.18-19.  Support is at 1.10.Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone. July Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and…
  • Attention Traders

    20 May 2015 | 9:02 am
    As you know I post the S&P E-mini trades I make in my trading seminar CarlFutiaRealTime  on this blog's Twitter feed (at the top of the right hand column). You can follow me here on Twitter for free but keep in mind that the trade postings are delayed 5-10 minutes. Since I started posting these trades in October 2013 they have generated  a 112% return trading a single contract per $10,000 of account equity (a very conservative approach since day trade margin on a single contract is only about $2,700). Since the start of the seminar 42 months ago the trades made in the seminar…
  • Lindsay update

    20 May 2015 | 9:01 am
    During the past few days the Dow has made new bull market highs. I have been tracking the progress of the Dow through what I think may well be an example of George Lindsay's three peaks and a domed house formation. The bottom chart is a schematic of a typical 3PDH.In my last post on this subject  I identified the February low as point 20 whereas now I am inclined to see it as point 14 as it is now labeled on the Dow chart above. I think the recent sideways action represents the "five reversals" portion of the domed house with point 20 the early May low. This reinterpretation puts point…
  • Guessstimates on May 20, 2015

    20 May 2015 | 5:42 am
    June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2118-2134. I think the ES is headed for 2146. Support beneath the market is at 2118. QQQ:  Upside target is 113. TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market is headed up to 3.00%. Euro-US Dollar:  Resistance above the market at 1.12 has been broken. The Euro is now headed for 1.18-19.  Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone. July Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    CARPE DIEM

  • Historic Chart of the Day

    13 May 2015 | 11:28 am
    Based on today's Census Bureau report on April retail sales, consumer spending at "Food Services and Drinking Places" (restaurants and bars, see red line) was greater than grocery store sales (blue line) in April for the third straight month, reversing a longstanding pattern of food spending and establishing a new US consumer milestone. As the chart above shows, the spending habits of Americans over the last three months represent the first time in US history that spending on food away from home by Americans has exceeded spending on food at home. In April consumers spent $51.25 billion on…
  • New Carpe Diem Site

    5 Oct 2012 | 9:18 am
    For new posts please visit Carpe Diem's new home at The American Enterprise Institute
  • Major CD Announcement

    20 Sep 2012 | 2:23 pm
    Dear Carpe Diem Regulars: Over the next several days, there will be some major changes taking place for the Carpe Diem blog. After six years, almost 10,000 posts, and more than 8 million visits and almost 12 million page views using the Blogger platform, Carpe Diem will become a WordPress blog at a new website. Starting within the next few days, Carpe Diem will be exclusively hosted by The American Enterprise Institutes's new AEIdeas website, which also features Jimmy Pethokoukis's blog as well as other AEI blog "channels" by topic (Economics, Foreign and Defense Policy, Politics…
  • National Home Sales Snapshot from DQ News

    20 Sep 2012 | 9:48 am
    Click to enlarge. Today's "National Home Sales Snapshot" from DQ News is displayed above, which has been updated with U.S. home sales during the last 30 days in 98 of the top 100 MSAs (excludes Louisville and Wichita), and covers about two-thirds of all U.S. home sales.  Compared to the same period last year, home sales over the last 30 days have increased by 9.8%, following previous increases in September of 11.3% (last week) and 10.3% (first week of the month).  The median home sales price increased nationally by 7.8% above a year ago in the most recent 30-days sales period, which…
  • Quotation of the Day: The Fallacy of Redistribution

    20 Sep 2012 | 6:34 am
    From Thomas Sowell's column today (emphasis mine): The history of the 20th century is full of examples of countries that set out to redistribute wealth and ended up redistributing poverty. The communist nations were a classic example, but by no means the only example.In theory, confiscating the wealth of the more successful people ought to make the rest of the society more prosperous. But when the Soviet Union confiscated the wealth of successful farmers, food became scarce. As many people died of starvation under Stalin in the 1930s as died in Hitler's Holocaust in the 1940s.How can that be?
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    True Economics

  • 25/5/15: Immigration and Entrepreneurship: Major Unknowns

    25 May 2015 | 9:50 am
    A recent CESIfo study looked at the role of immigrants in driving entrepreneurship.Per authors: "Immigrants are widely perceived as being highly entrepreneurial and important for economic growth and innovation. This is reflected in immigration policies and many developed countries have created special visas and entry requirements in an attempt to attract immigrant entrepreneurs. Not surprisingly, a large body of research on immigrant entrepreneurship has developed over the years."Couple of interesting statistical summaries: Striking feature of the above data is low level of…
  • 24/5/15: Markets, Patterns and Catalysts: Irish Growth Story

    24 May 2015 | 10:39 am
    Some of my slides from last week's presentation at the All-Ireland Business Summit, covering three key themes:The Current State of the Irish Economy "The Market Section"The New Normal of rising global risk "The Pattern"A Policy Path to Growth "The Catalysts"
  • 24/5/2015: Russian Economy: Weaker April Signals Renewed Risks

    24 May 2015 | 4:20 am
    When I remarked recently on some less negative than expected developments in Russian economy over Q1 2015, I noted that these were fragile signs of potential stabilisation and that the risks remain to the downside. April industrial production appears to signal the same. April industrial production numbers are down 4.5% y/y and manufacturing is down 7% - the rates of decline that are significantly sharper than recovered over 1Q.Remember that Russian GDP fell 1.9% in 1Q 2015 y/y, based on preliminary estimates - a decline that is shallower than what was expected by the analysts. Overall output…
  • 22/5/15: Expresso: E agora, Cameron?

    22 May 2015 | 2:57 am
    Portuguese Expresso on UK elections impact on the economy, quoting myself on the subject:Click on the image to enlarge
  • 22/5/15: You are What (and Where) You Eat

    22 May 2015 | 12:22 am
    For a half-decent Italian, food is a part of defining both the value and the meaning of existence. For other cultures, food is at the very least definitive of our connection to culture, family, history, land and so on.Gabriela Farfan, Maria Eugenia Genoni and Renos Vakis of the World Bank looked the the consumption of food away from home across the developing world. And instead of positing aesthetic or value questions relating to food, they look at the impact that ready-to-eat food purchases have on poverty statistics in one developing country for which such data is available: Peru.Per…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

  • Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – May 20 2015

    20 May 2015 | 8:29 am
    The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications. The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases. The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate…
  • New Residential Construction Report: April 2015

    20 May 2015 | 3:58 am
    Yesterday’s New Residential Construction Report showed notably improving results with total permit activity increasing 10.1% since March while total starts increased a whopping 20.2% over the same period.Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased 3.7% from March to 666K single family units (SAAR), and rose 7.1% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005.
  • NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Sentiment: May 2015

    20 May 2015 | 3:48 am
    Recently, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing that overall assessments of housing activity declined in May with the composite HMI index falling to 54 while the "buyer traffic" index declined to a level of 39 from 40 in the prior month.Overall, conditions for new home construction appear to have softened some recently and still remain below the peak assessments see prior to the Great Recession.
  • S&P/Case-Shiller: February 2015

    28 Apr 2015 | 9:17 am
    Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for February reported that the non-seasonally adjusted National index increased from January with prices rising 0.14% while the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 city index increased 0.53% and the Composite-20 city index increased 0.50% over the same period.On an annual basis, the National index increased 4.22% above the level seen in February 2014 while the Composite-10 city index increased 4.81% and the Composite-20 city index increased 5.03% over the same period.On a peak basis, all three indices still show significant…
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: March 2015

    20 Apr 2015 | 1:56 pm
    The latest release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that the national economic activity weakened in March with the index falling to a level of -0.42 from a level of -0.18 in February while the three month moving average also declined to a level of -0.27. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”. The Chicago Fed regards a value…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The Economic Populist

  • Industrial Production Takes Another -0.3% Tumble

    Robert Oak
    17 May 2015 | 12:49 pm
    The Federal Reserve Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization report shows industrial production decreased -0.3% as gas and oil well drilling continues to collapse.  Overall mining contracted a very large -0.8%.  Manufacturing was unchanged.  March also showed a -0.3% industrial production change.  This if the fifth month in a row for a loss.  The G.17 industrial production statistical release is also known as output for factories and mines. Share
  • Warnings on Trade Deals Ignored by Congress in 1999

    Bud Meyers
    15 May 2015 | 9:25 am
    Déjà Vu. And they're still being ignored. Now the Senate just passed fast track for the TPP trade agreement. It seems the early warnings of yesterday weren't heeded — and again, history repeats itself.  Share
  • No Q2 Hope From Retail Sales

    Robert Oak
    13 May 2015 | 7:32 pm
    April Retail Sales has assuredly disappointed Wall Street and is just one report in a series indicating the U.S. economy has gone into standby mode.  Retail sales had no growth and even excluding gasoline sales only grew 0.1%.  Autos & parts dropped -0.4% for the month.  Without autos & parts sales, April retail sales increased 0.1%.  Gasoline sales declined by -0.7%.  Sporting goods & hobby stores showed a 0.8% increase but department stories sales declined by -2.2%. Share
  • JOLTS Shows Good News for Labor a Long Time Comin'

    Robert Oak
    12 May 2015 | 5:26 pm
    Lately labor statistics are looking more and more like a return to normal.  The depth of the recession has been so prolonged, to see any real positives for the U.S. workforce seems like a fantasy dream.  Yet, the dream is becoming real, or so says the BLS JOLTS report.  Jobs are finally coming back.  The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey shows there are 1.72 official unemployed per job opening for March 2015.  Job openings were around five million. Share
  • Elizabeth Warren at the Roosevelt Institute (TPP and More)

    Bud Meyers
    12 May 2015 | 12:51 pm
    Elizabeth Warren and Rosa DeLauro recently co-authored an article posted at the Boston Globe (titled Who is writing the TPP?) which says, "Hillary Clinton has said that the United States should be advocating a level and fair playing field, not special favors for big business, in our trade deals. We agree with this blunt assessment." Share
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Stock Trading To Go

  • STTG Market Recap May 22, 2015

    Mark Hanna
    22 May 2015 | 1:31 pm
    It was a quiet Friday to end a quiet week as it seems most of Wall Street left for the Hamptons last weekend. The S&P 500 fell 0.22% and the NASDAQ 0.03%. Stocks moved little following an afternoon speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen that said a rate hike would be appropriate this year if the economy improves. She noted that first quarter weakness was largely transitory and that... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap May 21, 2015

    Mark Hanna
    21 May 2015 | 4:44 pm
    Another quiet session in a week full of them. The S&P 500 gained 0.23% and the NASDAQ 0.38% as morning weakness was bought. This is a good sign again, but these gains are of a grinding nature. Existing home sales for April fell 3.3%, missing an expected 1% gain to 5.24 million units. Earlier in the week, reports showed home builder sentiment fell in May, but housing starts for April came... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap May 20 2015

    Mark Hanna
    20 May 2015 | 5:01 pm
    It was another quiet session as there was very little reaction to the Federal Reserve minutes which basically reinforced what everyone expected - there will be no rate hike coming in June. There was a momentary spike when this news was released but almost all of that was sold within an hour. The S&P 500 dropped 0.09% while the NASDAQ added 0.03%.Federal Reserve officials believed it... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap May 19, 2015

    Mark Hanna
    19 May 2015 | 3:58 pm
    It was a very quiet session at the index level for the markets as the S&P 500 fell 0.06% and the NASDAQ 0.17%. Indexes stayed around the flat line all session. There are Federal Reserve minutes to be released tomorrow but there is a slow down of macro news right now. April's housing starts totaled 1.135 million in April, nearly a seven-and-a-half year high and above the 1.020 million... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • STTG Market Recap May 18, 2015

    Mark Hanna
    18 May 2015 | 5:04 pm
    Indexes posted moderate gains Monday as a mixed morning led to afternoon buying; that is the pattern one wants to see. The S&P 500 gained 0.30% and the NASDAQ 0.60% as news flow was very light. For the year the S&P 500 is 3.4% higher and the NASDAQ is up 7.2% - but it has not been easy sledding in 2015. Fed Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans repeated his call to hold interest... Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    WILLisms.com

  • Texans Just Voluntarily Added $4 Billion In Debt.

    Will Franklin
    18 May 2015 | 10:58 am
    Texas has one of the lowest state debt levels in the nation, with the highest possible bond rating from the major rating organizations. But local debt in Texas is among the highest in the nation. And in May of 2015, Texans across the state, in (intentionally?) small numbers, voted to take on nearly four billion additional bond dollars. "Intentionally" is set apart there, because turnout in elections in May of odd-numbered years is minuscule and tends to favor special interests who can mobilize tiny but strongly-vested and self-interested cohorts of voters to the polls. That's the sinister…
  • America Envies Texas' High School Graduation Rates

    Will Franklin
    19 Mar 2015 | 2:32 pm
    Trivia Tidbit of the Day: Part 980 -- Texas Graduation Rates- Over the past several years, it has become what feels like a tautological exercise to note that Texas leads the nation in economic growth, job growth, population growth, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. Everyone knows those things now. One thing that hasn't really sunk in really at all, though, is Texas' relative dominance on educational measures. National test scores and high school graduation/dropout rates, both. The left-wing rebuttal to Texas' economic dominance usually has something to do with poor people being left out of the…
  • Wendy Davis Burned Through Her Out-Of-State Money, Can't Compete Down The Stretch

    Will Franklin
    6 Oct 2014 | 7:56 pm
    Texas Democrat Wendy Davis reported a miserable $3.2 million cash on hand today in her gubernatorial campaign's coffers, along with $2.5 million more combined from three other committees. Republican Greg Abbott, meanwhile, reported more than thirty million bucks cash on hand, without aid from any other committees (click image for a larger version): Political Science professor Mark P. Jones of Rice University noted over the summer that for Wendy Davis to be even remotely competitive, she would need to spend at bare minimum $10 million in the final month. Here's the quote from the article:…
  • On Socialism. And Wendy Davis.

    Will Franklin
    8 Sep 2014 | 1:55 pm
    Socialism, as defined (above) by Google. Note the synonyms. It's a loaded word in political discourse, evoking emotional reactions in many, but socialism seems to have lately (and quite suddenly) lost all meaning to post-Cold War kids. Indeed, in a recent CBS/New York Times poll, only 16% of millennials could even say what socialism is, while only a still-embarrassing 30% of those aged 30 and up could define it (57% of Tea Partiers knew about socialism, by contrast). Meanwhile, socialism itself has been mainstreamed as perfectly acceptable within the Democratic Party, while those who warn…
  • Texas Political Enthusiasm Gap Continues.

    Will Franklin
    30 May 2014 | 11:04 am
    After the March primary elections in Texas, it was clear that Democrats, particularly Wendy Davis, had a serious problem. An enthusiasm gap. Well, the runoff election this week exposed further weakness in the Democrats' plan to turn Texas blue-- or even a bit purplish-- in 2014. Here's why: (click for larger version) Approximately 200,000 more people voted in the Republican runoff (~750K) in May than voted in the Democrat primary (~550K) in March. Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton each received more votes in the Republican runoff than Wendy Davis earned in the Democrat primary. More people voted for…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Political Calculations

  • Spring 2015 Snapshot of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings

    26 May 2015 | 12:51 am
    Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter. Today, we'll confirm that the expected earnings per share for the S&P 500 throughout 2015 has continued to fall from the levels that Standard and Poor had projected they would be back in February 2015. The table below quantifies the carnage for what can now be described as a deepening earnings recession, which Standard & Poor continues to forecast will run through the third quarter of 2015: Expected Future Earnings per Share for the S&P 500 Future…
  • The Ultimate Swiss Army Knife You Can Buy Today

    22 May 2015 | 1:50 am
    Did you ever wonder what gift you could possibly get for the guy who has everything? The Victorinox Swiss Army SwissChamp XAVT is available on Amazon, where as of this writing on 22 May 2015, may be obtained at a discount of $100.01 off its regular price of $480. And though it features 80 tools, including a ball point pen, barometer, altimeter, pharmaceutical spatula and corkscrew in addition to both a large and small blade, it's not quite as impressive as the Wenger 16999 Swiss Army Knife Giant, which features 7 more, but alas, is not available as of this writing. And that's why this is the…
  • A Major Setback for the Apollo Group

    21 May 2015 | 1:15 am
    We're breaking news today as it appears that the Apollo Group (NASDAQ: APOL), the parent company of the for-profit University of Phoenix, the largest private educational institution in the United States, has had a major setback in its technology-based strategy to retain students and improve graduation rates in its Associate's degree programs, which have seen a dramatic decline in enrollment since peaking in 2010. The setback is tied to the Apollo Education Group's August 2011 $75 million acquisition of Carnegie Learning, a developer of computer-based math instruction. The New York Times…
  • The Slow Rise and Rapid Fall of Social Security's Disability Trust Fund

    20 May 2015 | 12:51 am
    In April 2008, the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds projected that Social Security's Disability Insurance (SSDI) trust fund would likely peak in 2008 and then would be slowly drawn down until it ran out of money in 2025. They were half right. Our chart below shows both how history really played out and how it would apparently appear to be on track to play out. Going by the apparently steady burn rate for the depletion of Social Security's Disability Insurance Trust Fund established since June 2011, the SSDI trust…
  • Spring 2015: To Whom Does the U.S. Government Owe Money?

    19 May 2015 | 1:13 am
    On Friday, 15 May 2015, the U.S. Treasury identified the national origins of the major foreign holders of debt issued by the U.S. government through the end of March 2015, the halfway point of the federal government's fiscal year. With that information, we can now update our chart showing just who has loaned the U.S. government money in the Spring of 2015: The big news is that debt held by "Mainland China" has once again edged out the total U.S. government-issued debt holdings of Japan to reclaim its undisputed spot as the biggest foreign owner of the U.S. national debt. That China is the…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Calafia Beach Pundit

  • Treasury yields are very low relative to inflation

    22 May 2015 | 11:41 am
    Volatile oil prices have distorted the Consumer Price Index; removing them reveals that inflation has been running at a relatively stable 2% rate for the past 12 years. No one—especially the Fed—needs to worry that inflation is too low. If anything is too low, it is Treasury yields.As the chart above shows, the year over year change in the headline CPI has been unusually volatile in the past decade. Core inflation (ex-foor and energy) has been much more stable. The main difference between these two measures of inflation is oil prices.The chart above plots the CPI index ex-energy on a…
  • Claims keep falling, but risk aversion is still the problem

    21 May 2015 | 11:30 am
    This continues to be the weakest recovery in modern times, but it has set a record for the lowest rate of layoffs.Using a 4-week moving average, initial claims for unemployment last week fell to their lowest level in 15 years. Relative to the number of people working, claims are now at their lowest point in recorded history. The average worker has never been so little at risk of losing his or her job.Meanwhile, after-tax corporate profits have never been so strong.Nevertheless, despite record-setting profits, business investment has been quite weak. In real terms, capital goods orders, a…
  • Housing market still improving

    19 May 2015 | 7:53 am
    April housing starts rose almost 12% more than expected (1135K vs. 1015K), reaching a new post-recession high. This shouldn't have been too surprising, given the relatively strong readings of builder sentiment, as the chart above suggests. Housing starts are still only half what they were at the height of the boom, so it's reasonable to think that the housing recovery is still a long way from exhausting itself. We're likely to see slow but steady growth for years to come.The housing recovery is also reflected in home prices, which are still comfortably below their 2005-2006 highs, both in…
  • Oil prices rise, consumer confidence drops

    15 May 2015 | 3:42 pm
    As the chart above shows, the price of regular gasoline at the pump has rebounded about 30% in the past 3 ½ months, after dropping by almost half since last summer.As the chart above shows, this has dampened consumers' enthusiasm a bit. Nevertheless, consumer confidence is still fairly close to its post-recession highs.As the chart above shows, active oil and gas drilling rigs in the U.S. have plunged in response to the collapse in oil prices. But the decline in the rig count is slowing down, and this means that supply and demand are coming back into balance. The bounce in oil and gas prices…
  • No deflation in the PPI

    14 May 2015 | 8:40 am
    The April Producer Price Indices saw a lot of negative numbers (e.g., final demand -0.4% for the month, -1.3% for the year), but it's all due to falling energy prices. When there are huge swings in oil prices such as we've seen in the past year or so, it's entirely appropriate to focus on core measures (ex food and energy) of inflation. Doing so shows us that at the producer level, inflation has been running at about 2% a year for the past several years.The chart above focuses on the total and core measures of the traditional version of the PPI (in recent years the BLS has begun releasing a…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • An inundation of significance tests

    Andrew
    25 May 2015 | 7:18 am
    Jan Vanhove writes: The last three research papers I’ve read contained 51, 49 and 70 significance tests (counting conservatively), and to the extent that I’m able to see the forest for the trees, mostly poorly motivated ones. I wonder what the motivation behind this deluge of tests is. Is it wanton obfuscation (seems unlikely), a legalistic conception of what research papers are (i.e. ‘don’t blame us, we’ve run that test, too!’) or something else? Perhaps you know of some interesting paper that discusses this phenomenon? Or whether it has an established…
  • On deck this week

    Andrew
    25 May 2015 | 6:00 am
    Mon: An inundation of significance tests Tues: Stock, flow, and two smoking regressions Wed: What’s the worst joke you’ve ever heard? Thurs: Cracked.com > Huffington Post, Wall Street Journal, New York Times Fri: Measurement is part of design Sat: “17 Baby Names You Didn’t Know Were Totally Made Up” Sun: What to do to train to apply statistical models to political science and public policy issues The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • Chess + statistics + plagiarism, again!

    Andrew
    24 May 2015 | 6:23 am
    In response to this post (in which I noted that the Elo chess rating system is a static model which, paradoxically, is used to for the purposes of studying changes), Keith Knight writes: It’s notable that Glickman’s work is related to some research by Harry Joe at UBC, which in turn was inspired by data provided by Nathan Divinsky who was (wait for it) a co-author of one of your favourite plagiarists, Raymond Keene. In the 1980s, Keene and Divinsky wrote a book, Warriors of the Mind, which included an all-time ranking of the greatest chess players – it was actually Harry Joe…
  • Kaiser’s beef

    Andrew
    23 May 2015 | 7:35 am
    The Numbersense guy writes in: Have you seen this? It has one of your pet peeves… let’s draw some data-driven line in the categorical variable and show significance. To make it worse, he adds a final paragraph saying essentially this is just a silly exercise that I hastily put together and don’t take it seriously! Kaiser was pointing me to a news article by economist Justin Wolfers, entitled “Fewer Women Run Big Companies Than Men Named John.” Here’s what I wrote back to Kaiser: I took a look and it doesn’t seem so bad. Basically the sex difference is…
  • John Lott as possible template for future career of “Bruno” Lacour

    Andrew
    22 May 2015 | 11:33 am
    The recent story about the retracted paper on political persuasion reminded me of the last time that a politically loaded survey was discredited because the researcher couldn’t come up with the data. I’m referring to John Lott, the “economist, political commentator, and gun rights advocate” (in the words of Wikipedia) who is perhaps more well known on the internet by the name of Mary Rosh, an alter ego he created to respond to negative comments (among other things, Lott used the Rosh handle to refer to himself as “the best professor I ever had”). Again from…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    TheMoneyIllusion

  • Seeing Lu Mountain

    ssumner
    23 May 2015 | 9:03 am
    Brad DeLong has a post discussing a debate between Paul Krugman and Roger Farmer: I find myself genuinely split here. When I look at the size of the housing bubble that triggered the Lesser Depression from which we are still suffering, it looks at least an order of magnitude too small to be a key cause. Spending on housing construction rose by 1%-age point of GDP for about three years–that is $500 billion. In 2008-9 real GDP fell relative to trend by 8%–that is $1.2 trillion–and has stayed down by what will by the end of this year be seven years–that is $8.5 trillion.
  • Recommended reading

    ssumner
    21 May 2015 | 6:25 am
    1.  For a guy who has been right about everything, Paul Krugman sure is wrong about an awful lot of things.  Bob Murphy has an excellent new post which digs up lots of Krugman claims that turned out to be somewhat less then correct. Krugman, armed with his Keynesian model, came into the Great Recession thinking that (a) nominal interest rates can’t go below 0 percent, (b) total government spending reductions in the United States amid a weak recovery would lead to a double dip, and (c) persistently high unemployment would go hand in hand with accelerating price deflation. Because of these…
  • What happened to the QE skeptics?

    ssumner
    20 May 2015 | 7:15 am
    I don’t hear much anymore from people denying that printing money boosts NGDP. Perhaps this story from yesterday morning explains why: The comments from Benoit Coeure, initially made in private on Monday at a conference attended by one of Britain’s richest hedge fund managers Alan Howard, some of his peers and academics, sent markets into a flurry when they were published on Tuesday. Anticipating a flood of yet more euros onto the market, the single currency tumbled when the ECB released its Executive Board member’s remarks, sending European shares rising to near multi-year…
  • Neo-Fisherism, missing markets, and the identification problem

    ssumner
    19 May 2015 | 7:18 am
    I’ve done recent posts on Neo-Fisherism, and the problem of identifying the stance of monetary policy.  I’ve also pointed out that if we can’t identify the stance of monetary policy, we can’t identify monetary shocks. This is going to be a highly ambitious post that tries to bring together several of my ideas, in a Grand Theory of Monetary Policy.  Yes, that’s means I’m almost certainly wrong.  But I hope that the ideas in this post might trigger useful insights from people who are much smarter than me and/or better able to handle macro modeling.
  • The most underpaid profession on Earth

    ssumner
    18 May 2015 | 9:21 am
    Britmouse is back blogging with lots of interesting new posts.  A short one that caught my attention discussed this story from 2010: I saw the governor of the Bank of England [Mervyn King] last week when I was in London and he told me whoever wins this election will be out of power for a whole generation because of how tough the fiscal austerity will have to be,” Hale said in an interview on Australian TV reported by Reuters. Of course the Conservatives were recently re-elected, and indeed slightly improved their standing because they no longer rely on support from the Liberal Democrats.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Jesse's Café Américain

  • Why We Fought: On the Four Freedoms Speech, 6 January 1941

    25 May 2015 | 10:49 am
    There should be not doubt that the work for the four freedoms was not nearly finished after the end of the Second World War. The rights of minorities, and women, and the working classes took a long time to come, and are still in the process of being fulfilled and protected as the forces of progress and repression, of money and power versus moral principles, ebbs and flows. But in judging
  • Hillary as President: Robert Reich vs. Nomi Prins

    25 May 2015 | 9:18 am
    I am so very glad that Pam and Russ Martens have written this article below.   I had intended to write something on this topic, and I probably would not have done it nearly so succinctly and so well. The excerpt below is just a taste of a longer and more interesting piece, and I suggest that you read it. While the Republicans are temporarily fragmenting along lines of personal ambition and
  • Memorial Day 2015

    24 May 2015 | 8:35 am
    "Liberty must at all hazards be supported. We have a right to it, derived from our Maker. But if we had not, our fathers have earned and bought it for us, at the expense of their ease, their estates, their pleasure, and their blood." John Adams, 1765 "They tell us Sir, that we are weak -- unable to cope with so formidable an adversary. But when shall we be stronger? Will it be the next week,
  • Shanghai Gold Exchange Sees 45.48 Tonnes in Withdrawals In Latest Week

    22 May 2015 | 5:10 pm
    Withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange in the latest week were 45.48 tonnes. That is 1,462,216 troy ounces taken out of their exchange in one week They use real physical bullion that moves between suppliers and customers, and actually leaves the exchange?  How barbaric! There are a total of 372,631 deliverable (registered) ounces of gold at these prices in all the Comex warehouses.
  • Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Caps on the Bottles

    22 May 2015 | 1:43 pm
    "You know, I think many people have the mistaken impression that Congress regulates Wall Street. In truth that's not the case. The real truth is that Wall Street regulates the Congress." Bernie Sanders "It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us -- that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • Blair vs the Blairites

    chris
    22 May 2015 | 5:38 am
    One effect of growing old is that you get to see history being rewritten. So, I fear, it is with the description of Liz Kendall as being a Blairite because she rejects the idea that England has moved leftwards and supports Toryish policies such as free schools and spending 2% of GDP on defence. This is to do Blair a disservice. Blair's latter-day sucking up to billionaires and tyrants has caused some people to forget that he did not win elections merely because he copied Tory policies and moved to some nebulous "centre ground." His talent was greater than that. He succeeded in…
  • Pro-growth, anti-business

    chris
    21 May 2015 | 6:46 am
    David Clark writes: To abandon the search for a more equitable, productive and democratic economy out of a desire to appear “pro-business” would be a serious error. This hints at an under-appreciated possibility - that some pro-growth policies are not pro-business. What might these be? One obvious candidate would be some combination of less austerity, a serious jobs guarantee, a citizens basic income and stronger trades union rights all of which would strengthen workers' bargaining power. These would be "anti-business" in the sense Kalecki noted: they would undermine…
  • "Consistent with"

    chris
    20 May 2015 | 5:36 am
    In discussing Paul Romer's wonderful concept of mathiness*, Peter Dorman criticizes economists' habit of declaring a theory successful merely because it is "consistent with" the evidence. His point deserves emphasis. If a man has no money, this is "consistent with" the theory that he has given it away. But if in fact he has been robbed, that theory is grievously wrong. Mere consistency with the facts is not sufficient. This is a point which some defenders of inequality miss. Of course, you can devise theories which are "consistent with" inequality arising…
  • Voting against one's interests

    chris
    19 May 2015 | 6:30 am
    Many lefties have long believed that false consciousness causes some workers to vote against their own interests: I have some sympathy for this view. However, reading Dan Davies makes me suspect that it's not just workers who do this. He points out that the benefit cap could clobber the buy-to-let market and says: If anyone could be seen as a core Tory/UKIP voter, I would have thought that a small landlord in a southern coastal town would be. It’s not often that you see a government attacking its core supporters in this way. But it's not just BTL landlords who voted Tory even though…
  • Labour's managerialist election

    chris
    16 May 2015 | 1:41 am
    Many of us believe that if Labour is to have a future, it must embrace decentralization and attack  managerialism. The very way in which the leadership election is beling conducted, however, suggests that managerialism remains entrenched. What I mean is that the election is bundling together two questions: what narrative/vision/message should the party have? And: who is best at winning the party votes? But these are separate questions. It's perfectly possible that the leader most capable of "connecting" with voters is not the one best able to formulate policy and vision.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    David Smith's EconomicsUK.com

  • A little bit of deflation does you good

    David Smith
    24 May 2015 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Britain’s drop into deflation has produced a mix of curiosity, celebration and, in some quarters, alarm. The fact that the consumer prices index (CPI) last month...
  • Austerity myths revisited

    David Smith
    18 May 2015 | 6:00 am
    My piece on Friday, The Myth of Abandoned Austerity, has attracted quite a lot of interest. It had a simple aim - to demonstrate that fiscal consolidation, deficit reduction, continued throughout the parliament, alongside recovery. Simon Wren-Lewis, a professor of...
  • Crunch looms as pay picks up but productivity struggles

    David Smith
    17 May 2015 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The dust has settled, though the politicians – on the winning side at least – have not yet paused for breath. George Osborne, when he has...
  • The myth of abandoned austerity

    David Smith
    14 May 2015 | 8:00 am
    One of the most enduring claims about the British economy in recent years is that the then coalition government abandoned austerity in 2012. It is a claim that gives comfort to those who see everything that has happened to the...
  • A victory for common sense - and the Bank

    David Smith
    10 May 2015 | 2:00 am
    My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. This time last week, when you could still get very good odds on a Tory majority, I missed out on yet another good investment opportunity. In...
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Top Gun Financial Planning

  • Some Things To Worry About

    Greg Feirman
    7 May 2015 | 9:43 pm
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. I find myself quite nervous about the stock market lately for a few reasons. First, the S&P can’t seem to make any progress.  We are essentially flat for the last 5 months. While some stocks such as DIS, SBUX and NKE continue to make new highs, other important leading stocks seem stuck in the mud such…
  • Keeping It Simple In 2015

    Greg Feirman
    5 Jan 2015 | 7:07 pm
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. As we start off 2015 on a down note a number of concerns are weighing on markets. First is the collapse in oil prices.  This is obviously bad for oil companies.  It is also bad for employment in oil related sectors which have created many solid middle class jobs in recent years.  For example, Hercules…
  • Pressure Point

    Greg Feirman
    13 Oct 2014 | 4:59 pm
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. Last Thursday and Friday were the worst two days for the markets since February.  The S&P is testing its 200 day moving average (DMA) for the first time in 2 years. Real fear has entered the market for the first time in quite a while.  5 1/2 years into the bull market investors are worried: Is this just a…
  • Riding The Bull

    Greg Feirman
    3 Sep 2014 | 7:47 am
    NOTE: Every week or two I wrote a Client Note for my clients. I post most but not all of the notes to my blog but with a time delay usually between 1 day and 1 week. To receive the Client Notes at the same time as my clients, sign up in the box in the right hand corner of the website. Those of you who have followed me over the years know that I was slow to warm to this bull market.  However, in the last year I have evolved and come to embrace it.  I stopped trying to short it (see “The Loser’s Strategy”, August 4, 2013) and decided to invest more in line with what is…
  • Interview With Mint.com

    Greg Feirman
    5 Aug 2014 | 7:10 am
    Check out this short interview I did with Mint.com.  
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Project Syndicate RSS-Feed

  • Lessons for the AIIB

    Samura Kamara
    25 May 2015 | 10:50 am
    Discussion about China’s establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has focused on questions about the AIIB's governance and standards. This risks eclipsing a far more important discussion about the role that multilateral investment institutions play in supporting economic growth in emerging markets.
  • Paradise in Peril

    Charles Tannock
    25 May 2015 | 9:20 am
    The plight of Mohamed Nasheed – the former president of the Maldives who has now been sentenced to 13 years imprisonment by the military government that overthrew him in 2012 – seems to have fallen off the world’s radar. This is bad news for the Maldives, where a fledgling democracy’s fate is inextricably tied to that of Nasheed.
  • Austerity Is the Only Deal-Breaker

    Yanis Varoufakis
    25 May 2015 | 4:00 am
    Greece's government is eager to implement an agenda that includes all of the economic reforms that its creditors expect, and is uniquely able to maintain the public’s support for a sound economic program. What it will not do is embrace a cure – deeper austerity – that kills the patient.
  • Capital Markets for Development

    Ethiopis Tafara
    22 May 2015 | 8:20 am
    Ending extreme poverty and building shared prosperity in the developing world are noble goals; but they are also expensive ones, requiring financing on a scale far greater than what governments in developing countries can provide. But if the proper conditions are created, capital markets will be well positioned to meet those needs.
  • New-Model Development Finance

    Anne-Marie Slaughter
    22 May 2015 | 7:30 am
    China’s establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is the latest sign of a broader move away from the view that aid to developing countries is best provided in the form of massive government-to-government transfers. Ironically, it may be the US, which opposed the AIIB’s creation, that is leading the shift.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Benzinga Feeds

  • Wells Fargo On Macau: 'Don't Expect A V-Shaped Recovery'

    Santhosh Naikar
    25 May 2015 | 4:48 am
    In a recent report, Wells Fargo analysts said that there would be more clarity on a Macau recovery only after the Galaxy Phase 2 opening. Latest Ratings for MPEL DateFirmActionFromTo Apr 2015Goldman SachsDowngradesBuyNeutral Apr 2015Morgan StanleyDowngradesEqual-weightUnderperform Apr 2015NomuraDowngradesNeutral View More Analyst Ratings for MPEL View the Latest Analyst Ratings
  • International Paper CEO: 'Box Demand Isn't A Direct Co-Relation To GDP Anymore In The U.S.'

    Ritesh Anan
    21 May 2015 | 12:10 pm
  • Save The Bees: They Could Save The Economy

    Laura Brodbeck
    21 May 2015 | 5:19 am
    The Obama administration earlier this week announced plans to help save the declining population of honey bees in the United States after studies showed that bee colonies have been struggling under a number of environmental factors.
  • FOMC Minutes Text

    Eddie Staley
    20 May 2015 | 11:02 am
    A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, April 28, 2015, at 1:00 p.m. and continued on Wednesday, April 29, 2015, at 9:00 a.m. PRESENT: Janet L. Yellen, Chair William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman Lael Brainard Charles L. Evans Stanley Fischer Jeffrey M. Lacker
  • 208 Fund Managers With $607B Were Just Surveyed On The Economy

    Wayne Duggan
    19 May 2015 | 11:30 am
    Bank of America released a report this week on the results of its most recent monthly Fund Manager Survey. The survey’s 208 participants control a combined $607 billion in assets.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    OilPrice.com Daily News Update

  • Top 4 Oil Companies For Dividend Investors

    Michael McDonald
    25 May 2015 | 2:51 pm
    Investing in the energy industry right now can be scary. On the one hand, oil prices have been extremely volatile and look likely to stay that way. On the other hand, while clean energy, especially wind power, is growing rapidly, valuations are astronomical and, for income-focused investors there are few good options.With that in mind, investors looking for income in energy have little choice but to turn to the safest conventional energy play available; oil majors. Companies like ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell have been around for decades, so…
  • E.U. Could Provide Push U.S. Needs To Lift Energy Export Limits

    Alexis Arthur
    25 May 2015 | 2:40 pm
     On May 21, the United States Senate approved fast-track legislation that has the potential to expedite several international trade negotiations, not least the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), a proposed free-trade deal with Europe. For European nations, hoping that a new accord will also pave the way for greater access to US energy exports, the news should be well received. The TTIP covers a whole host of trade issues, from regulatory cooperation to labor rights. In terms of energy, the deal could bind the US and the…
  • Oil Industry Can No Longer Ignore Climate Action

    Nick Cunningham
    25 May 2015 | 2:23 pm
    Global momentum towards action on climate change is building in the lead up to international negotiations, set to take place later this year in Paris. With the writing on the wall, some of the largest oil companies are banding together in order not to be left out in the cold.The agreement emerging from Copenhagen in 2009 was widely seen as a failure. While the likelihood of a stringent international agreement with binding emissions targets resulting from the Paris talks is extremely low, the world appears to be mustering up the motivation to do…
  • Iran Wants To Overcome Differences With Saudi-Arabia

    Andy Tully
    25 May 2015 | 2:09 pm
    Iran’s oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, says that despite their general differences over Islam and specific quarrel over Yemen, his country and Saudi Arabia have more in common than may be immediately evident.Zanganeh said he hopes to meet with Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi on the sidelines of OPEC’s June 5 meeting at the cartel’s headquarters to discuss how to overcome their discord, according to a report on May 24 by Iran’s Mehr news service.Iran, a predominantly Shi’a Muslim state, has long been at odds with the…
  • This African Country Sees A Nuclear Future

    Andy Tully
    25 May 2015 | 1:05 pm
    The 2011 meltdown at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power plant has had a chilling effect on the global nuclear power industry, and has forced a rethink of nuclear power even in nations that have relied heavily on it for decades.Germany, for example, having long been a major user of emission-free nuclear power, recently has reverted to a greater reliance on one of the oldest power-generating fuels: coal. And France, which has relied on nuclear energy for 75 percent of its electricity is hoping to reduce this reliance as many of its reactors age.South…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    zentrader.ca

  • Big Move Coming In Equities Soon

    jeff pierce
    24 May 2015 | 7:12 pm
    By Poly This is an excerpt from this weekend’s premium update from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly. Now offering monthly & quarterly subscriptions with 30 day refund. Promo code ZEN saves 10%. It is a difficult to update my viewpoint when the equity markets had one of the smallest (top 10) price variances in history this week. The action brought little clarity to long term direction, with traders remaining of two minds as to whether the new…
  • #1 Stock Market Concern This Memorial Day

    chris
    24 May 2015 | 5:08 am
    By Chris Ebert For those who trade by the chart, known as technical analysts, it is never a good idea to ignore the chart, even when the chart appears to be giving mixed signals. To ignore the chart is like ignoring an airplane’s altimeter. There is an old saying in aviation: “Always trust your gauges!” and it holds true for traders who use technical tools as gauges of stock market behavior. Nevertheless, it doesn’t hurt to tap on the gauge a few times to make sure it is working properly. That’s the situation this Memorial Day holiday in the U.S. – the gauges appear to be…
  • Thursday Evening Options Brief 2015-05-21

    chris
    21 May 2015 | 3:00 pm
    By Chris Ebert With the S&P 500 closing near its all-time record once again, now is a great time to evaluate whether the stock market has reached a top, or whether it is about to rocket much, much higher. It would be terrific if there was an easy answer, but there is not. There never is. That is what makes tops so dangerous – dangerous to buy because the bottom could fall out – dangerous to short because the top could blow off. Perhaps the most important question a trader can ask right now is: ” Whether the S&P rallies explosively, or whether it crashes in coming…
  • Surviving Stock Market Purgatory

    chris
    17 May 2015 | 5:00 am
    By Chris Ebert The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high of 2123 this past week. The Dow closed within a few points of its all-time high, as did the Nasdaq. Each of those events taken out of context can seem to paint a rosy picture of the stock market; it’s difficult to argue with the market when stock prices are climbing higher than they have ever been before. However, put into the proper context the picture becomes one of gloom, and perhaps of impending doom. There is and always has been an abundance of doom and gloom when stocks reach new highs. It’s simply the nature of the…
  • Dow Continues To Be Rangebound

    jeff pierce
    13 May 2015 | 2:10 pm
    By Jeff Pierce This continues to be the most boring market I’ve ever seen. Boring in the sense that it’s untradeable as there really is no true trend. The markets seem to go up and down like a yo yo and while the markets are at highs something just doesn’t feel like it matches up between what is being reported in the headlines and what I’m seeing in market internals and scan results. Below you can see the Dow’s range is tightening and sooner or later this is going to breakout or breakdown and when it does the move is going to be large. Unless of course it’s…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Economy Watch

  • The Student Loan Generation

    The Conversation
    25 May 2015 | 8:59 am
    student_loan.jpg Home Page News Page As this year’s crop of college graduates don their caps and gowns and listen to inspiring commencement addresses before embarking on uncertain futures, they’ll also hear a lot about the consequences of the large debts most of them amassed attaining a degree. <p>As this year&rsquo;s crop of college graduates don their caps and gowns and listen to inspiring commencement addresses before embarking on uncertain futures, they&rsquo;ll also hear a lot about the consequences of the large debts most of them amassed attaining a…
  • Non-neutral Net Neutrality

    The Conversation
    25 May 2015 | 8:48 am
    toll_road.jpg Home Page News Page Telecommunication companies were up in arms in February after the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) made net neutrality the law of the land by classifying broadband internet as a utility, seeming to ensure there would be no pay-to-play fast lanes. <p>Telecommunication companies were up in arms in February after the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) made net neutrality the law of the land by classifying broadband internet as a utility, seeming to ensure there would be no pay-to-play fast lanes.</p> Telecommunication companies were up in…
  • The TPP One Hurdle at a Time

    The Conversation
    25 May 2015 | 8:36 am
    containership.jpg Home Page News Page After the Senate’s refusal to pass trade promotion authority (TPA) on May 12, some trade advocates feared that President Obama’s ongoing commercial negotiations with Asia and Europe would die a slow death. <p>After the Senate&rsquo;s refusal to pass trade promotion authority (TPA) on May 12, some trade advocates feared that President Obama&rsquo;s ongoing commercial negotiations with Asia and Europe would die a slow death.</p> After the Senate’s refusal to pass trade promotion authority (TPA) on May 12, some trade…
  • Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew's Life and Passing Resonates in the West

    East Asia Forum
    25 May 2015 | 8:27 am
    singapore2.jpg Home Page News Page Seldom has the death of a great Asian leader commanded as much appreciation in the West as the passing of Lee Kuan Yew. The mind numbs at the number of well-earned tributes to the man who led Singapore to become a successful and influential nation-state. <p>Seldom has the death of a great Asian leader commanded as much appreciation in the West as the passing of Lee Kuan Yew. The mind numbs at the number of well-earned tributes to the man who led Singapore to become a successful and influential nation-state.</p> Seldom has the death of a great…
  • A Preview of the Emerging Markets

    Marc Chandler
    25 May 2015 | 8:15 am
    emerging_markets.jpg Home Page News Page Emerging markets currencies are somewhat directionless at the moment, caught between an unclear trend for the dollar and oil prices in a broad yet volatile range since the start of the month. Moreover, the uncertainty about the timing of the first Fed hike and festering risks in Europe (Greece and rise of the anti-establishment parties in Spain) will continue to detract from risk appetite. We see EM trading with a mildly negative tone in the week ahead, though we don’t seen many idiosyncratic risk events in the near them. <p>Emerging…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Central Bank News

  • Central Bank News Link List - May 26, 2015: G7 finance ministers to discuss recent forex moves – Canada

    centralbanknews.info
    25 May 2015 | 8:35 pm
    Here's today's Central Bank News' link list click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.G7 finance ministers to discuss recent forex moves – Canada (Reuters)Fed’s Mester says ‘time is near’ for U.S. interest-rate increase (Bloomberg)Fed’s Fischer: Too much weight placed on Fed’s first rate hike (Reuters)China interbank rates dive after PBOC eases monetary policy (Business…
  • Israel holds rate, warns further shekel rise to hit exports

    centralbanknews.info
    25 May 2015 | 6:45 am
        Israel's central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.10 percent, but said continued appreciation of the shekel's exchange rate "is liable to weigh on growth of exports and of the tradable sector."    The Bank of Israel (BOI), which cut its rate by 15 basis points in February to counter the negative impact of exports and inflation from the rise in the shekel, noted that the shekel had strengthened by about 1.3 percent against the U.S. dollar since late April though May 22 and year-to-date this amounted to an effective appreciation of 3.7 percent. …
  • This week in monetary policy: Israel, Angola, Kyrgyzstan, Hungary, Canada, Ukraine, Fiji and Trinidad & Tobago

    centralbanknews.info
    25 May 2015 | 3:00 am
        This week (May 25 through May 30) central banks from eight countries or jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Israel, Angola, the Kyrgyz Republic, Hungary, Canada, Ukraine, Fiji and Trinidad & Tobago.    Following table includes the name of the country, its MSCI classification, the direction of the latest decision, the date the new policy decision will be announced, the current policy rate, and the rate one year ago.    The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always accessed by clicking…
  • Pakistan cuts rates 100 bps as inflation continues to fall

    centralbanknews.info
    23 May 2015 | 8:12 am
        Pakistan's central bank effectively cut its policy interest rates by 100 basis points and narrowed its rate corridor by 50 points to 200 basis points as inflation continues its downward trajectory and economic conditions improve, including a smaller current account deficit.    The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), which earlier this year revised its rate corridor and introduced a SBP target rate for the money market overnight repo rate, said economic growth was expected to accelerate due to the gradual realization of investments in energy and infrastructure projects. …
  • Central Bank News Link List - May 22, 2015: Yellen sees rate rise in 2015, gradual pace of tightening

    centralbanknews.info
    22 May 2015 | 10:18 am
    Here's today's Central Bank News' link list click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.Yellen sees rate rise in 2015, gradual pace of tightening (Bloomberg)It’s time for RBI to cut rate, says Finance Minister Arun Jaitley (PTI)Brazil central bank President Tombing repeats intent to fight inflation (Dow Jones)BOE Shafik: monetary policy can offset risks permanent damage (MNI)Draghi:…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Business Insider

  • For some inexplicable reason Twitter has reportedly held talks to acquire Flipboard (TWTR)

    Lara O'Reilly
    26 May 2015 | 1:50 am
    Twitter is trying to buy magazine-style article curation app Flipboard in an all-stock deal that would value the latter company at $1 billion, according to Re/code's Kara Swisher. Re/code's sources say the deal was pushed by Twitter's chief financial officer Anthony Noto, but that the discussions "seem to be currently stalled." Business Insider has contacted both Twitter and Flipboard and we will update this article once we hear back. It doesn't seem immediately obvious why Twitter would want to buy Flipboard. Twitter is suffering an existential problem at the moment: Its monthly active user…
  • European stocks are sinking after the long weekend

    Mike Bird
    26 May 2015 | 1:27 am
    After a three day weekend in Germany and the UK, European markets started the week on a bad foot. Here's the scorecard: Germany's DAX: -0.75% The UK's FTSE 100: -0.61% France's CAC 40: -0.60% Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.08% Spain's Ibex: -1.02% Asian markets closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index ended up 2.02%, followed by the Hang Seng, which rose by 0.96%. In Japan, the Nikkei rose 0.12%. US futures are down too. Ahead of the open, the S&P 500 is down 8 points, while the Dow is 67 points lower.  It's an extremely quit day for European data, with nothing of note coming.
  • Dale Vince could lose £1.9 million in a 20-year-old divorce case because of this technicality

    Lianna Brinded
    26 May 2015 | 12:55 am
    Dale Vince, the CEO of Britain's biggest green energy supplier Ecotricity, divorced his first wife in 1992 when they were both new age hippie travellers, penniless and largely living off state benefits. But his ex-wife Kathleen Wyatt is now fighting to get millions of pounds in back-dated cash from him. One of Britain's top divorce lawyers told Business Insider that it's all down to a small paperwork technicality — they forgot to "seal off" the financial arrangements section of their divorce papers. "If you don't close off the financial matters in a divorce case, you…
  • Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi just sent a Twitter DM about his first year in office to 12.5 million people

    Mike Bird
    26 May 2015 | 12:47 am
    Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi just wrapped up his first year in office — the Hindu nationalist won a landslide and came into government on May 26 last year. Despite the fact that he's running a country where only about a fifth of the people are internet users, he's one of the most forward-thinking world leaders on the use of social media for political campaigning. To keep people up to date with what he's doing, Modi used a method that's not familiar to pretty much any other President or Prime Minister around the world — a direct message on Twitter.  To all of his 12.5 million…
  • Ryanair is predicting an 'irrational' airline price war that could be great for customers

    Oscar Williams-Grut
    26 May 2015 | 12:14 am
    Budget airline tickets aren't exactly expensive right now thanks to low oil prices, but Ryanair thinks the cost of flying could fall even further. Irish no-frills airline Ryanair reported its full-year results this morning, which revealed a 12% jump in revenue to €5.65 billion (£4 billion, $6.16 billion) and a 66% rise in profit after tax to €867 million (£613 million, $946 million). But it warned investors not to expect a similar rise next year, due to competition from rivals on ticket prices. Here's Ryanair (emphasis ours):  While our traffic growth this year will be strong, (up…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Business + Economy – Articles – The Conversation

  • John Nash and his contribution to Game Theory and Economics

    John Wooders, Distinguished Research Professor of Economics at University of Technology, Sydney
    26 May 2015 | 12:13 am
    The Nash bargaining solution was a seminal contribution to Game Theory. AAP/Filippo VeneziaA two-page paper published by John Nash in 1950 is a seminal contribution to the field of Game Theory and of our general understanding of strategic decision-making. That paper, “Equilibrium points in N-person games”, introduced a cornerstone concept which came to be known as Nash equilibrium. Game theory is concerned with situations where decisions interact – where the “payoff” or reward for a decision maker depends not only on his or her own decision but also on the decisions of others. Such…
  • Fintech might be hot right now, but banks are still winning

    Amy Auster, Deputy Director at Australian Centre for Financial Studies
    25 May 2015 | 8:02 pm
    PayPal is far more dominant in online payments in the US than Australia where traditional players have defended the market. Geoff Livingston/Flickr, CC BY-SAThe term “fintech” – the marriage of financial services with technology companies – has only recently come into vogue in Australia, with venture capital starting to flow into the sector. It was only around October 2014 that the term fintech started to appear in Australia’s mainstream media – rather late given it was just two months later peer-to-peer lending platform LendingClub listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
  • FactCheck: is tax up every year under the Abbott government?

    Fabrizio Carmignani, Professor, Griffith Business School at Griffith University
    25 May 2015 | 1:07 pm
    Shadow Treasurer, Chris Bowen. AAP Image/Lukas CochTax is up every year under this government and tax as a percentage of the economy is higher under Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey than it ever was under the previous Labor government despite all of their huffing and puffing about tax. – Chris Bowen, Shadow Treasurer, interview with Hugh Rimington on Channel 10 Eyewitness News, May 12, 2015. The $A5 billion worth of tax breaks for small business were a centrepiece of the federal budget this year and something the Opposition was keen to frame as a return to Labor policy. In a post-budget…
  • Superannuation tinkering could kill the goose that lays the golden egg

    Dale Pinto, Professor of Taxation Law at Curtin University
    25 May 2015 | 1:06 pm
    Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen has promised to cut super tax concessions for the rich. Mick Tsikas/AAPGiven the A$2 trillion tied up in superannuation, it is perhaps no surprise that Australian governments could be tempted to use it as a cash cow to address growing budget shortfalls. Rumours of further changes to superannuation are gathering momentum ahead of the next federal election. While the Coalition government has ruled out making direct changes to superannuation taxation, it has reportedly left open the option of addressing what it calls “super integrity issues” and “loopholes”…
  • Is Aldi's move to woo cashed-up shoppers a risk?

    Gary Mortimer, Senior Lecturer, QUT Business School at Queensland University of Technology
    24 May 2015 | 1:13 pm
    Aldi's "no frills" approach and private labels have been very successful. Julian Smith/AAPWhile Aldi’s launch of their new “trial” stores may seem to be an attempt to capture middle income shoppers, it may end in disaster. Aldi’s four new trial stores located in Queensland, NSW, ACT and Victoria, will offer improved lighting, larger layouts and an expanded offering of fresh food including extending produce ranges, in-house bakeries and premium brands. Employing Nielsen’s 2014 Homescan Report, Aldi have determined that only 30% of their customers were now considered…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    SurvivalBlog.com

  • Notes for Tuesday – May 26, 2015

    Hugh James Latimer
    25 May 2015 | 9:32 pm
    May 26th is the birthday of Randall Hank Williams (Hank Williams, Jr.). He was born in 1949. When not touring, he lives somewhere in Montana, so he qualifies as a Redoubter. He reportedly has a large gun collection, which is heavy on Sharps rifles and rifles that have factory letters showing that they were originally shipped to Montana. His song A Country Boy Can Survive is of course practically a survivalist anthem. His father was just 29 when he died, and despite a couple of close calls, Hank Jr. is now 64, so he may yet live to a ripe old age.
  • Mike Williamson’s Review: Benjamin Blatt, Firearm Attorney in Indiana

    Hugh James Latimer
    25 May 2015 | 9:31 pm
    Benjamin Blatt is licensed in Indiana only at this point, so this review will unfortunately have a limited market. https://www.facebook.com/hoosierattorney My own knowledge of firearms law is extensive, for a layman and activist who has been at this since 1986. So, coming across a professional with detailed knowledge of the fine points is a great find. Ben recently set me up with two firearms trusts– one trust for NFA items specifically and one for my valuable antiques and collectibles. The price for each was exceptionally reasonable. The process for both was simple and straightforward.
  • Ruger P-series Bargain Handguns, by R.S.

    Hugh James Latimer
    25 May 2015 | 9:29 pm
    Several weeks ago during a visit to my favorite gun shop I noticed a used Ruger semi-automatic handgun on the bottom shelf of the display. It had a lengthy model number that was unfamiliar, but then it has only been the last several years (coincidental with my newfound interest in prepping) that I have taken a serious interest in firearms. I could see that it had a stainless steel upper assembly with a gray (presumably metal rather than polymer) frame. I could also see that it had an exposed hammer, so I assumed it was an older design rather than a modern, striker-fired type. It came with…
  • Letter Re: Stoping an Antibiotic Course of Treatment

    Hugh James Latimer
    25 May 2015 | 9:28 pm
    Jim and Hugh, The adverse effect of tithing or stopping an antibiotic course of treatment early can be dangerous. The subjective symptoms of decreases in fever, inflammation, or discomfort, or other negative consequence “feelings” of infection is only an indication that the bacteria is in a die off, but the strain of bacteria may not have been completely eradicated. Discontinuing the antibiotic prematurely can cause a supergrowth once stopped in some cases and a bacterial resistance to that antibiotic is developed, so that any subsequent usage of that antibiotic may not work any…
  • News From The American Redoubt:

    Hugh James Latimer
    25 May 2015 | 9:27 pm
    Idaho man finds rare giant earthworm species. – RBS o o o Dead whistle pig tests positive for the plague. – RBS o o o I’m kind of scratching my head over this job posting: Sales Associate – Full Time – RadioShack. o o o It’s Memorial Day And More Oregon Gun Bills are on the Horizon… o o o A well-known member of the gun community has passed away. Mike Buckner, formerly of Vale, Oregon and most recently French Glen, Oregon, passed away at a hospital in Bend, Oregon following a surgical procedure associated with his descending aorta and some cardiac…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Trading Heroes

  • Study Of Engulfing Candles On The EURUSD Weekly Chart

    Hugh Kimura
    14 May 2015 | 3:47 am
    Alright, I’ve been talking about this for a couple of weeks and here it is! This is the first in a series of studies that I’m going to be doing on building trading systems. It is a little different than what you are used to on other sites. Keep in mind that regardless of what we […] The post Study Of Engulfing Candles On The EURUSD Weekly Chart appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • Trading System Development – Intro To Historical Analysis

    Hugh Kimura
    14 Apr 2015 | 2:52 am
    This is an introduction to a new series that I am starting on Historical Analysis. In each study, I will provide the chart pattern or trading setup and show you every single time this setup happened in the past. But before we begin, there are a few things that we have to get straight. The post Trading System Development – Intro To Historical Analysis appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • Why Wolf Of Wall Street Is The Worst Movie For Traders To Watch

    Hugh Kimura
    7 Apr 2015 | 7:21 pm
    Almost everyone I have talked to loved Wolf of Wall Street, starring Leonardo DiCaprio. But if you are a trader, you cannot enjoy this movie in the same way that the average person would. This post will tell you why and what you can do about it. The post Why Wolf Of Wall Street Is The Worst Movie For Traders To Watch appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • Traders Gym Free Backtesting Software – Does It Beat Forex Tester 2?

    Hugh Kimura
    24 Mar 2015 | 9:26 pm
    I was really excited when I found out that Trade Interceptor's free backtesting software was finally available. Find out what I think of it and if it can really replace Forex Tester 2. The post Traders Gym Free Backtesting Software – Does It Beat Forex Tester 2? appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • How To Download Historical Forex Data For The Timeframe You Need

    Hugh Kimura
    3 Mar 2015 | 7:13 pm
    Sometimes you are looking for data for a particular timeframe and you cannot find it. For example, maybe you want 4 hour data, but all you can find is 1 minute data. This post will show you how to convert that data easily and quickly. The post How To Download Historical Forex Data For The Timeframe You Need appeared first on Trading Heroes.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    OpenMarkets

  • MARKET UPDATE: SUBDUED SESSION

    OpenMarkets
    22 May 2015 | 1:06 pm
    After a week of a lot of volatility, today we saw a bit of a subdued session.  Jack talks about Janet Yellen’s speech and what the possible hints are for the Fed’s next move.
  • Cocoa: Food of the Gods Faces 21st Century Challenges

    Russell Blinch
    22 May 2015 | 9:10 am
    Call it the thin, sweet line. And it’s all that stands between us and our growing need for a chocolate fix. The line is manned by the world’s besieged cocoa farmers, who toil along the Earth’s equatorial middle, battling the elements and unpredictable markets to ensure the flow of a crop needed to create one of the world’s most popular guilty pleasures. But with the prediction cocoa demand will outstrip supply within five years, the industry is in dire need of better management and more sophisticated trading tools to help farmers and consumers cope. Not everyone is optimistic.
  • It’s Showtime for Real-Time Payments

    Rumi Morales
    20 May 2015 | 3:29 pm
    Among the technologies that will transform the financial services sector in the future, real-time payments is entering stage-right.   A number of developments in faster network infrastructure, enhanced security features, and distributed ledger systems are converging to enable faster payments around the world. The United States notably lags behind countries such as the United Kingdom, Australia, and even Nigeria, which are enabling near real-time transfers of funds.  While the U.S. Federal Reserve is currently developing a modernization plan for the payment system, new technologies are not…
  • MARKET UPDATE: ALL ABOUT INTEREST RATES

    OpenMarkets
    20 May 2015 | 2:40 pm
    Interest rates have seen some serious spikes in both the 10 year and 30 year and Jack delves into what is behind that pressure.
  • MONDAY OUTLOOK: WILL THE FED RAISE RATES?

    OpenMarkets
    18 May 2015 | 8:16 am
      According to CME Group’s Fed Watch tool, views of market participants are split on when the Fed will raise interest rates, with many predicting a small increase at its June meeting. FOMC minutes are released Wednesday, which could provide some insight.   Economic Calendar Monday: Housing Market Index 10:00 AM ET   Tuesday: Milk Production 8:30 AM ET   Wednesday: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans speech 3:00 AM ET FOMC Minutes 2:00 PM ET   Thursday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index 8:30 AM ET Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET Federal Reserve…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    azizonomics

  • Deflation is Here — And The Government is Poised to Make it Worse

    Aziz
    20 May 2015 | 2:39 am
    Consumer prices may not be deflating as quickly as Labour’s electoral chances did earlier this month, but — even after £300 billion of quantitative easing — price deflation for the first time in more than half a century is finally here. The Bank of England continues to throw everything at keeping prices rising at close to their 2 percent target. Yet it’s not working. And this is not just about cheaper oil. Core inflation has also been dropping like a rock. I argued that “deflation was looming” for Britain last year, and feel a little vindicated that it has come…
  • Confessions of a 21st Century Lionel Robbins

    Aziz
    13 May 2015 | 4:15 am
    Marx said that history does not repeat itself. But sometimes, history does. This may be particularly true in the domain of economics and economic knowledge. Economics is a complex subject. It is the study of a series of abstractions (markets, firms, governments) built upon abstractions (money) built upon abstractions (value), a great metaphysical muddle stacked up to the sky like a wobbly Jenga tower. At a simpler level, economics is the study of human behaviour, or as von Mises put it, human action. Business cycles from the boom to the bust are a great cavalcade of individual human action…
  • Tesla & The New Economics Of The Coming Renewable Energy Boom

    Aziz
    5 May 2015 | 12:38 pm
    I don’t need to tell anyone of the importance of Tesla’s expansion into home battery technology. A home battery lets you store solar energy to use when the sun isn’t shining, which is a really, really major thing in terms of power distribution. As I’ve been pointing out for years, this is the crucial missing link between photovoltaic cells being a rapidly, rapidly cheapening technology with a lot of rollout potential, and photovoltaic cells being the major source for the world’s power. As I predicted in The Week in 2013: The promising trends in technology and…
  • I Don’t Understand the Apple Watch

    Aziz
    24 Apr 2015 | 5:31 am
    In 2006, I was telling anyone who would listen — which, given that I was a nerdy 19-year old, wasn’t many people — to buy Apple stock. Back then Apple seemed to be on the verge of something amazing. I had had an iPod since 2003, and had just bought a Macbook Pro, and was blown away by OS X. The operating system and interface had a crispness and an attention to detail that made Windows PCs seem like a muddled mess. Turns out I was right about Apple. The past decade has seen Apple blow up bigger than I dreamed they might. The iPhone and iPad have been stunning successes that have…
  • On Trade Unions & Inequality

    Aziz
    22 Apr 2015 | 10:38 am
    This chart is pretty wow: Florence Jaumotte and Carolina Osorio Buitron of the International Monetary Fund have some ideas about how the correlation may have been caused: The main channels through which labor market institutions affect income inequality are the following: Wage dispersion: Unionization and minimum wages are usually thought to reduce inequality by helping equalize the distribution of wages, and economic research confirms this. Unemployment: Some economists argue that while stronger unions and a higher minimum wage reduce wage inequality, they may also increase unemployment by…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    What is Economics?

  • TWO WAYS TO REDUCE THE QUANTITY OF SMOKING DEMANDED

    cguevara
    25 May 2015 | 6:36 pm
    TWO WAYS TO REDUCE THE QUANTITY OF SMOKING DEMANDED   By now it is an established and accepted fact that smoking is harmful to people´s health. As a result, public policy is oriented to decreasing the consumption of cigarettes. To decrease the consumption of cigarettes demand for cigarettes must be lowered. How to accomplish that? There are two ways to decrease the demand for cigarettes. The first is to decrease the demand for cigarettes at every price. The second is to decrease demand by increasing price. Let´s take the first method first. Since it has been ascertained that smoking is…
  • SHIFTS IN THE DEMAND CURVE

    cguevara
    25 May 2015 | 6:30 pm
    SHIFTS IN THE DEMAND CURVE   The demand curve is plotted in a graph where the vertical axis refers to the price of the good and the horizontal axis is the quantity of the good. If you go up the vertical axis you increase the price of the good, while if you go down the price drops. If you go right in the horizontal axis you increase the quantity of the good, while if you go left you decrease the quantity. Logically, the demand curve will have a downward slope as it goes from left to right. Why? Because you would expect that less of the good would be demanded when the price is high and…
  • Positive economics

    nyaga
    10 Aug 2014 | 12:22 am
    This is an economic analysis that involves deducing the way the population is reacting from their facts. This is also termed as value free economics. This branch of economics deals with the exact thing that is happening in the real life situation that is, it takes the exact character portrayed by the population at hand and trying to figure out why this is happening. In other terms positive economics, is a branch of economics which bears in mind the causes and the effects of a behavior that a population portrays in a particular condition that is held at per. The summary of this branch can be…
  • Normative economics

    nyaga
    10 Aug 2014 | 12:19 am
    This is a branch of economics, which is involved in analytical review that deals with the opinion of economics. This is also termed as judgmental economics. The reason that makes it normative economics is, it takes the from the word norms, norms means basically the view with which people and their culture revolves in a particular way. Normative economics is always based on deducing from the way a person behaves and tends to be so much into it in such a way it states that the whole population with which he comes he from behaves the same way of which it is not always true. Normative economics…
  • Monetary theory and practice:

    nyaga
    10 Aug 2014 | 12:17 am
    This is an economics discipline which is involved in analyzing the way money came into place, how it is being used by the economies in the world and more so discusses on how the same money has facilitated economic transactions in the economy under consideration and the whole world at large. The discipline has various grounds which make it up which in crude they are: Barter trade, monetary trade, financial institutions handling, controlling and distributing the same in an economy. To have a deep understanding of this economics discipline one needs to understand some of the monetary economics…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    eWallstreeter

  • Pennsylvania Senate Considers Hiking Income and Sales Taxes

    25 May 2015 | 7:15 pm
    The Republican controlled Pennsylvania House of Representatives, with strong Democratic support, recently passed a bill to increase the state’s personal income and sales and use taxes. If passed by the Republican controlled Senate and signed by Governor Wolf (D.), the bill would increase the statewide sales tax rate from 6 percent to 7 percent, and make Pennsylvania’s overall sales tax burden the second highest in the Northeast region (New York is first). Pennsylvania’s statewide income ta
  • Climate Change: It’s An Expensive National Security Threat

    25 May 2015 | 5:40 pm
    Funding America's military will only get more difficult and expensive with environmental changes to come.
  • Tim Smeeding on how to reduce income inequality

    25 May 2015 | 12:59 pm
    Tim Smeeding knows more than virtually anyone else about inequality and poverty in the United States and other rich nations. I asked him what he recommends to reduce income inequality. His response: Tax appreciated assets when inherited or transferred inter-vivos. … Continue reading →
  • Polish Voters Elect Eurosceptic President; Disenchantment with Brussels Spreads

    25 May 2015 | 10:58 am
    Andrzej Duda outed president Bronisław Komorowski, the the pro-Brussels incumbent centrist Civic Platform party president, in an election over the weekend. Komorowski was expected to win. The Duda Victory Sent Shockwaves Through Polish Politics, and no doubt Brussels as well. The win for the socially conservative, nationalist, eurosceptic party, which saw Mr Duda oust Bronisław Komorowski, the government-backed incumbent from the presidential palace, represents a significant lurch to the right
  • Can’t Find a Job? Here Are 10 Jobs That Are Hiring Like Crazy

    25 May 2015 | 10:57 am
    If you're in need of a job, these 10 career paths are wide open -- and businesses can't seem to find enough bodies to keep their ranks filled.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    richardblundell.net

  • The three megatrends driving change in retail

    Richard
    15 May 2015 | 9:32 pm
    It’s a really exciting time if you work in retail and consumer industry in Australia right now. It might also seem like a very daunting time, with many of the traditional rules of business being rewritten. The disruption that started in the sector about ten years ago with the high growth of e-commerce has fed […]
  • How the digital tide is turning in favour of Books and Music retailers

    Richard
    26 Jan 2015 | 2:34 am
    Specialist music and book retailers are recovering from 10 years of digital change - vinyl LPs, hardbacks and live events are their savours
  • Appetite for Disruption – has Apple lost theirs?

    Richard
    20 Dec 2014 | 6:40 pm
    In 2011 Apple disrupted the SMS text message by launching iMessage. Because it was set as the default means of sending message iPhone to iPhone, a large chunk of the global SMS messaging traffic disappeared overnight. Why then has it not done the same for FaceTime Audio, its equivalent voice-over-internet phone call system?
  • Employee engagement: where even the strongest brands like Virgin get it wrong

    Richard
    18 Oct 2014 | 9:20 pm
    In today's world of commoditised products, the human service element that provides the customer's emotional connection to a brand, has to be part of the whole package. Not ignored by the marketing team who just focus on brand assets and messaging, and not subject to additional payment.
  • Will the market price of data insight fall? The supply-demand economics of personal data

    Richard
    9 Jun 2014 | 4:09 am
    The commercial successes of the information era are those companies like Google and Facebook who have managed to monetise consumer’s personal information. These companies have not only benefited from the amount of personal data that is now available, they’ve also encouraged consumers to share more of it. Will there come a time however when the […]
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Columbia Business School: Ideas At Work RSS

  • Some customers are best left alone

    12 May 2015 | 11:41 am
    Companies are investing heavily in proactive customer-retention campaigns, but for certain customers these campaigns can be the wake-up call that sends them packing
  • Networking for a job? Try this instead.

    6 May 2015 | 3:05 pm
    Networking inspires feelings of dread for many, but changing your approach could make the whole process easier and help others to a strategic flash of insight into the solution to their problems — you.
  • Reappropriating Fast, Fatty, and Delicious

    30 Apr 2015 | 12:59 pm
    For many companies facing public backlash, a name change provides a simple way out, but for some of the world’s biggest brands, changing names is out of the question. For groups like these, Adam Galinsky argues rather than run away from their public perception, they should embrace it.
  • Chris Borland Makes the Hard Choice to Go Long

    21 Apr 2015 | 9:02 am
    Chris Borland’s dramatic decision to retire at age 24 can teach us all something about the way we value the present and make hard decisions about the future.
  • Clinton's 2016 Logo "Fail" Not Likely to Lose Voters

    14 Apr 2015 | 2:06 pm
    Criticism of the campaign logo dominated social media conversations around Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential bid. But logos are just a small part of a brand, and by the time election day rolls around, #logogate is likely to be long forgotten.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    FTMDaily.com - Geopolitical Analysis, Economic Insights, and Investing Ideas

  • Special Report: The Hidden History of the Federal Reserve

    FTMDaily.com
    22 May 2015 | 1:05 pm
    Download this eye-opening special report by Jerry Robinson absolutely FREE! The post Special Report: The Hidden History of the Federal Reserve appeared first on FTMDaily.com - Geopolitical Analysis,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • Federal Reserve Admits No Rate Hike Likely Until Fall 2015

    Jerry Robinson
    22 May 2015 | 7:20 am
    Despite boasting of America’s robust economic “recovery”, the Federal Reserve still has no clue as to when the economy will be strong enough to sustain an interest rate hike. The post Federal... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • End the “Unpatriotic” Patriot Act Now

    Jerry Robinson
    21 May 2015 | 2:25 pm
    Rand Paul is right. The Patriot Act is a disgrace and should be allowed to expire this month. The post End the “Unpatriotic” Patriot Act Now appeared first on FTMDaily.com -... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • CHART: The Psychology of a Market Cycle

    Jerry Robinson
    21 May 2015 | 7:20 am
    Always remember: 1) Its never "different this time" and 2) every boom is followed by a bust... you can count on it. The post CHART: The Psychology of a Market Cycle appeared first on FTMDaily.com -... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
  • Weekly Market Barometer Charts – Now Online

    Jerry Robinson
    20 May 2015 | 2:14 pm
    View our latest Market Barometer trend analysis and commentary on U.S. stocks and precious metals. The post Weekly Market Barometer Charts – Now Online appeared first on FTMDaily.com -... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Exchange Rates UK - Currency News

  • Pound to Dollar Outlook: GBP/USD Reliant on US Data for Movement in Quiet Start to Week

    Colin Lawrence
    26 May 2015 | 1:30 am
    Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) Exchange Rate Reliant on US Data for Movement in Quiet Start to Week With a lack of significant UK data out in the start of next week, the Pound to Dollar exchange rate is likely to fluctuate on global developments and central bank speculation until Friday arrives with ecostats that are more... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Weekly Exchange Rate Forecasts for UK Pound, Euro and the US Dollar

    Colin Lawrence
    26 May 2015 | 1:30 am
    Pound Sterling Forecasts vs the Euro and the US Dollar for 2015 - 2016 The British Pound Sterling to Euro and US Dollar exchange rates are predicted to experience some interesting movement next week with central bank speculation, Greek negotiations and influential data all pouring into the mix. Firstly, the situation in Greece could... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Exchange Rates Today: GBP/EUR Trades Through 1.41 Following Political Concerns In Spain

    Adam Solomon
    26 May 2015 | 1:30 am
    Pound Sterling Advances vs the Euro and US Dollar The Pound took advantage of broad Euro weakness over the Bank Holiday and made further gains in excess of the 1.41 level. The single currency also came under renewed selling pressure versus the U.S Dollar, drifting below 1.10 following Sunday’s regional vote in Spain. A quick... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Australian Dollar Forecasts -AUD vs NZD, GBP and EUR Await Relatively Quiet Data Week for Movement

    Colin Lawrence
    25 May 2015 | 7:00 am
    Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Outlook Sees GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD, NZD/AUD Awaiting Relatively Quiet Data Week for Movement A quick Australian Dollar foreign exchange market summary before we bring you the rest of the report: Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) Exchange Rate Forecast The start of the week will be relatively quiet... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • Rand FX Forecasts: ZAR/GBP, ZAR/EUR, ZAR/USD Exchange Rates Expected to Experience Fluctuations on SA Labour Data

    Colin Lawrence
    25 May 2015 | 7:00 am
    ZAR/GBP, ZAR/EUR, ZAR/USD Exchange Rates Predicted to Experience Fluctuations on SA Labour Data An interesting week could be seen for the Rand exchange rate with a couple of key South African data releases due to emerge. This week saw the South African Reserve Bank keep rates unchanged, as they have been since July 2014. However,... Exchange Rates UK - Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    BusinessClimate.com Blog

  • Reshoring Manufacturing: States Attracting Jobs

    Bill McMeekin
    20 May 2015 | 8:45 am
    The welcome back movement continued in 2014 as more companies joined the reshoring wave, bringing investment and jobs to the U.S. from overseas markets. A newly released report by the Reshoring Initiative found reshoring and related trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) were up 20 percent in 2014 from the record levels in 2013. Like reshoring, FDI is a key contributor to the U.S. manufacturing revival. Foreign-owned companies invested $236 billion in the U.S. in 2013, up 35 percent from the previous year. Manufacturing remains a major category of FDI, totaling more than $95 billion in…
  • Three Secrets for Planning Project Approval

    Bill McMeekin
    15 May 2015 | 3:30 am
    My colleague Matt Carmichael, editor of Livability.com and a contributor to this blog, is in line for at least a set of steak knives if not a brand, new Cadillac for his insights this week on sure-fire tactics to get project approval for a development plan. “A good idea is never good enough,” Matt writes. “You have to sell that idea. I’m not talking sell like Alec Baldwin in Glengarry Glenn Ross’ famous ‘ABC: A: Always, B: Be, C: CLOSING’ speech. Most development projects, public and private, need public buy-in at some stage of the process. If…
  • Southern Sweep: Five Southern States Top Best States for Business

    Emily McMackin
    8 May 2015 | 3:30 am
    The results are in – and the South wins. Five Southern states recently swept the top five rankings of the annual Best States for Business list compiled by Chief Executive magazine and based on surveys of CEOs across the country. This year’s results showed a clear preference among CEOs for states known for fostering growth through progressive business development programs, low business taxes and quality of life initiatives. Texas topped the list as the No. 1 state for business, with high marks for its low taxation and regulation barriers, its workforce quality and living environment. …
  • Venture Funding: States Where Money Is Flowing

    Bill McMeekin
    6 May 2015 | 3:30 am
    When it comes to venture funding, there is California, and there is everyone else. According to the PricewaterhouseCoopers and National Venture Capital Association MoneyTree report, based on data from Thomson Reuters, California alone accounted for more than 1,800 venture funding deals in 2014, worth a staggering $28.5 billion. Even more staggering is this: more than 85 percent of those deals took place in Silicon Valley. Led by Silicon Valley’s technology engines, California continuing its venture funding momentum into the first quarter of this year, with another 420 deals totaling $8…
  • Sea Change: Small- and Medium-Sized Firms Expanding Exporting Reach

    Emily McMackin
    1 May 2015 | 3:30 am
    Exporting is on the rise for companies across the United States, especially smaller ones. Newly released statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau and the International Trade Association show that more than 304,000 U.S. companies exported goods in 2013 – a 10 percent increase from 2009. Of those exporters, 98 percent were small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with fewer than 500 employers. Together SMEs generated $471 billion – or 34 percent – in total goods exports value. The majority (76 percent) are non-manufacturing firms or wholesale trade companies. The majority of SME exporters…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    FT Alphaville

  • FT Opening Quote – Ryanair profits propelled 66% higher

    Chris Nuttall
    26 May 2015 | 12:13 am
    Ryanair playing nice with passengers has boosted profits 66 per cent, Cineworld is looking forward to some summer blockbusters and we’re close to a $55bn Charter-Time Warner Cable deal. FT Opening Quote with commentary by City Editor Jonathan Guthrie is your early City briefing. You can sign up for the email here.Continue reading: FT Opening Quote – Ryanair profits propelled 66% higher
  • Further reading

    David Keohane
    25 May 2015 | 10:39 pm
    Elsewhere on Tuesday, - Dear buy side? Worried about liquidity? How about you pay for it? - Technology, inflation and the Fed. - The big Meh. - Grexit: the real risk to the euro is not that Greece will fail but that it will succeed. - Yanis, redux: Austerity is the only deal-breaker. - Who owns Witanhurst, London’s most expensive mansion?Continue reading: Further reading
  • FirstFT (the new 6am Cut)

    Amie Tsang
    25 May 2015 | 10:00 pm
    You can sign up to receive the email here. Feeling unproductive today? You won’t be the only one – it’s a problem all over the world. Worker output grew last year at itsslowest rate since the millennium. The slowdown across almost all regions is ringing alarm bells for central bankers from Janet Yellen to Mark Carney. Average labour productivity growth in mature economies slowed to 0.6 per cent last year from 0.8 per cent in 2013, causing angst for economists who see low productivity as one of the greatest threatsto improved living standards.Continue reading: FirstFT (the…
  • FirstFT (the new 6am Cut)

    Amie Tsang
    24 May 2015 | 10:10 pm
    You can sign up to receive the email here. The cash crunch continues for Greece, which has again threatened to default on International Monetary Fund repayments. Nikos Voutsis, interior minister, says the country cannot meet June pension and wage bills while reimbursing the EUR1.6bn it owes the IMF without a bailout deal. Although eurozone officials have been braced for default since March, the repeated warnings of imminent bankruptcy mean some have begun to disregard such threats, believing Athens is using them as a negotiating tactic. Wolfgang Munchau thinks that if Greece’s creditors…
  • The line-up for Camp Alphaville 2015

    FT Alphaville
    22 May 2015 | 9:01 am
    Yes, 80 speakers and panelists will be presenting at our annual finance festival in London on July 1. Click the image for full details. Continue reading: The line-up for Camp Alphaville 2015
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Marginal REVOLUTION

  • *Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future*

    Tyler Cowen
    25 May 2015 | 11:10 pm
    That is the new book by Ashlee Vance, and so far it is the book I have enjoyed most this year.  Highly recommended. Here is a short piece on how Elon Musk created a separate school just for his kids.
  • The Great Stagnation spreads

    Tyler Cowen
    25 May 2015 | 10:16 pm
    Chris Giles and Sam Fleming at the FT report: Output per worker grew last year at its slowest rate since the millennium, with a slowdown evident in almost all regions, underscoring how the problem of lower productivity growth is now taking on global proportions. The Conference Board, a think-tank, said that based on official data on output and employment from most countries, only India and sub-Saharan Africa enjoyed faster labour productivity growth last year. Globally, the rate of growth decelerated to 2.1 per cent in 2014, compared with an annual average of 2.6 per cent between 1999 and…
  • Paul Krugman on productivity stagnation

    Tyler Cowen
    25 May 2015 | 10:49 am
    That is the topic of his column today, I had not seen this very good point before: One possibility is that the numbers are missing the reality, especially the benefits of new products and services. I get a lot of pleasure from technology that lets me watch streamed performances by my favorite musicians, but that doesn’t get counted in G.D.P. Still, new technology is supposed to serve businesses as well as consumers, and should be boosting the production of traditional as well as new goods. The big productivity gains of the period from 1995 to 2005 came largely in things like inventory…
  • Monday assorted links

    Tyler Cowen
    25 May 2015 | 8:53 am
    1. Japanese planned markets in everything uh-oh. 2. I still prefer MapQuest. 3. And I thought rice was an inferior good. 4. How far can a Montrealer go on a hoverboard?  (guess before clicking) 5. Short video of John Nash’s recent meeting with Magnus Carlsen. 6. “…economists starting or graduating from their PhD in a recession are significantly more productive in academia over the long term than economists starting or graduating in a boom.” (speculative) 7. Is China launching the world’s biggest fiscal stimulus (again)? 8. Indians.
  • China fact of the day

    Tyler Cowen
    25 May 2015 | 12:14 am
    Given that non-financial total corporate debt is estimated by McKinsey to amount to $12.5tn, Chinese companies are paying on a nominal basis some $812bn in interest payments each year. In real terms, this amounts to $1.35tn. This is not only significantly more than China’s projected total industrial profits this year; it is slightly bigger than the size of a large emerging economy such as Mexico. The entire FT discussion is here.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Zero Hedge

  • Chinese Stocks Are Now Up Over 100% Year-To-Date

    Tyler Durden
    25 May 2015 | 8:36 pm
    Another day, another dip to be bought aggressively in China. The only catalyst for moar - aside from "well it was up yesterday" - is the news that the Shanghai-HK Stock Exchange aggregate quota will be abolished, leaving room for more speculative excess to flood into 500%-gainers.  CSI-300 is now up almost 6% since Friday's close and Shenzhen and CHINEXT are soaring back from underperformance yesterday. To round things out on a superlative note, the Shenzhen Composite - which contains all the ponzi-based self-collateralized idiot-makers, is now up over 100% year-to-date. Simply put, you…
  • Global Trade Dives Most since the Financial Crisis

    testosteronepit
    25 May 2015 | 7:49 pm
    Wolf Richter   www.wolfstreet.com   www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter How great was the global economy in the first quarter? We know the US economy was crummy. The revised GDP estimate will likely sink into red mire. Hence the heated proposals these days, including at the Fed, to apply “a second round of seasonal adjustment” that would “correct” the first-quarter GDP estimate, no matter how bad, into positive territory. An elegant way of covering up an unsightly sore. So was it just a crummy quarter in the US, or was it a global thing, in which case we might have…
  • How The Saudis Wag The Washington Dog

    Tyler Durden
    25 May 2015 | 7:05 pm
    Submitted by Andrew Levine via Counterpunch.org, American diplomacy favors (majority) white, English-speaking countries (the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) and non-Hispanic European settler states (Canada, Australia and New Zealand again, but also Apartheid South Africa and, of course, Israel). South Africa eventually fell out of favor, thanks in part to boycott, divestment and sanctions efforts in Western countries. Similar efforts now underway directed towards Israel are beginning to change public opinion too; though elite opinion, in the United States and the other settler states…
  • Now Hiring In China: Porn Identification Officers

    Tyler Durden
    25 May 2015 | 6:30 pm
      Source: Global Times
  • ISIS Planning US Nuclear Attack In Next 12 Months: Report

    Tyler Durden
    25 May 2015 | 6:20 pm
    Three weeks after the first supposed attack by Islamic State supporters in the US, in which two ISIS "soldiers" wounded a security guard before they were killed in Garland, Texas, the time has come to raise the fear stakes. In an article posted in the terrorist group's English-language online magazine Dabiq (which as can be see below seems to have gotten its design cues straight from Madison Avenue and is just missing glossy pages filled with 'scratch and sniff' perfume ads ) ISIS claimed that it has enough money to buy a nuclear weapon from Pakistan and "carry out an attack inside the United…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    nextnewdeal.net

  • Natalie Foster: Reimagine the Safety Net for the New Economy

    tprice
    21 May 2015 | 6:57 am
    In the final installment of our "Good Economy of 2040" video series, we hear from Natalie Foster, co-founder of Peers.org and Rebuild the Dream. In order to ensure a good economy in 25 years, Foster would reimagine the safety net for the 21st century. “It’s important that we stop thinking about jobs and start talking about livelihoods as people will derive their income from a variety of different sources,” says Foster. She adds that we need a safety net that is designed not for the “old industrial economy where everyone had 9-to-5 jobs," but "for people who live much more fluid and…
  • After Divestment, What Comes Next for College Campuses?

    tprice
    20 May 2015 | 10:37 am
    From championing civil rights through Freedom Summer to fighting sexual assault, college students have long made a name for themselves as leaders of ideas, activism, and innovation. It should therefore come as no surprise that the fossil-fuel divestment movement—the campaign to get institutions to pull their financial investments from fossil fuels and redirect that money to clean, renewable energy as a way of tackling climate change—has its roots in U.S. college campuses. With a total of $50 billion from 837 institutions and individuals divested so far, the campaign has succeeded at an…
  • Better Community Investment Will Pay Dividends for Colleges

    tprice
    19 May 2015 | 5:05 am
    We need to start holding colleges accountable as anchor institutions that provide economic growth and stability to their communities. In recent weeks, the debate about holding colleges accountable has focused on schools’ responsibilities toward failing students, continuously rising tuition, and increasing student debt. What’s been overlooked is the role of colleges as a potential force for good within their more immediate communities. Indeed, one of the most profound ways a university can improve the holistic experience of its students is to invest more in the surrounding community.
  • Beyond Divestment: How NYU Can Still Invest in the Public Good

    tprice
    12 May 2015 | 9:43 am
    The fossil fuel divestment movement on college campuses highlights two distinct aspects of the problem of climate change. The first and most obvious is that climate change and environmental issues are drastically changing our planet and require immediate action. The second is the responsibility of our colleges and universities to be stewards of responsible social change. While climate change appears to have caught the public eye in recent weeks, this question of responsibility continues to be overlooked. Both of these issues are now coming to a head at New York University (NYU). On March 26,…
  • Marina Gorbis: Get Money Out of Politics to Make Room for Rational Decision-Making

    tprice
    7 May 2015 | 2:12 pm
    This week, Marina Gorbis from the Institute for the Future presents her idea on the best way to ensure a good economy in 25 years: Let’s get money out of politics. “We need to get money out of politics. Unless we do that, it will be hard to work on any other issue. It’s a fundamental issue that needs to be fixed,” and we must “limit election season to make space for rational decision-making to improve lives of everyday people and not big monied groups and lobbyists." To learn more about money in politics, check out the following articles: "The Top 10 Things Every Voter Should Know…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Jared Bernstein | On the Economy

  • Data Note: There’s a reason we here at OTE often focus on year-over-year changes

    Jared Bernstein
    25 May 2015 | 6:21 am
    There’s been a significant disturbance in the force for those of us who pay attention to government economic data releases, specifically regarding GDP. A number of commentators, including CNBC’s Steve Liesman, have noted a negative pattern regarding first quarter GDP data. That is, as this San Francisco Fed note shows (see Figure 2), in the last few decades, first quarter growth has been consistently lower than the growth occurring April through December. No less than Fed Chair Janet Yellen alluded to this problem in a speech last Friday. You might think, “what’s wrong with that?”…
  • This is how we do it!

    Jared Bernstein
    22 May 2015 | 6:38 am
    I’m comin’ up…so you better get the party started! You ready to roll wid us? Then you’d better have a big, progressive idea! From the Center for American Progress party last night:
  • LA goes big on the min wg

    Jared Bernstein
    22 May 2015 | 4:51 am
    Over at the WaPo…as per the minimum wage literature, it’s an “out-of-sample” increase, which means we’ll need to monitor its outcomes. It’s also a pretty inspiring development, if you ask me.
  • Super Models

    Jared Bernstein
    21 May 2015 | 3:20 pm
    Sorry, nothing prurient. Just a quick observation and reading/listening assignments for serious OTE’ers on some material that I will return to shortly with the necessary time and attention. Over the past few days, in three separate (though intimately connected) debates in which I take part, I’ve come across writers emphasizing the critical importance of getting the economic models right. I too cannot over-emphasize the importance of this. I know: “all models are wrong.” They’re distillations of reality that we cast in order simplify complex phenomena. But…
  • What we’re arguing about when we’re arguing about trade deals.

    Jared Bernstein
    18 May 2015 | 7:20 am
    One problem in this whole debate over the Trans-Pacific Partnership is that we lose the forest for the trees. We end up arguing about trade deals—and worse, a deal almost no one has read (because it’s negotiated in secret)—as opposed to the broader underlying issues of the economic impact of trade from the perspective of what matters most: growth, jobs, wages, incomes, and inequality. I draw that distinction because what follows is not about politics. Many players in this debate form their views based on perceived labor or corporate interests, or the fact that their constituents are…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Freakonomics

  • Failure Is Your Friend: A Freakonomics Radio Rebroadcast

    Freakonomics
    20 May 2015 | 8:00 pm
    (Photo: Jake Davis) This week’s Freakonomics Radio episode is a rebroadcast of the episode “Failure Is Your Friend” (You can subscribe to the podcast at iTunes or elsewhere, get the RSS feed, or listen via the media player above. You can also read the transcript, which includes credits for the music you’ll hear in the episode.) This is a natural followup to last week’s episode, “The Upside of Quitting.” Why are so many people so reluctant to quit projects or jobs or relationships that have soured? One reason, Stephen Dubner argues, is that we tend to…
  • Failure Is Your Friend Rebroadcast Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    20 May 2015 | 8:00 pm
    [MUSIC: Ken Morrison, “Hummingbird Highway SJD NARR: Hey podcast listeners. This is Stephen Dubner, your host. This episode is about  failure. We originally put it out last year but in case you failed to listen then — see what I did there? — we’re giving you another chance. And if you did hear it before: I hope you’ll find something new this time around. You’ll hear about “go fever” and how the Challenger space tragedy could have been avoided … you’ll learn how to use a pre-mortem … and you might even come to think of failure as your friend. Hope you enjoy.
  • Ten Years of Freakonomics: A New Freakonomics Radio Podcast

    Stephen J. Dubner
    14 May 2015 | 8:41 am
    Our latest Freakonomics Radio episode is called “Ten Years of Freakonomics.” (You can subscribe to the podcast at iTunes or elsewhere, get the RSS feed, or listen via the media player above. You can also read the transcript, which includes credits for the music you’ll hear in the episode.) Steve Levitt and I just put out a new book, When to Rob a Bank, which is a collection of the best writing from our blog — 10 years’ worth. As part of the book tour, we were invited to speak at the 92nd Street Y in New York, one of my favorite cultural institutions in the world —…
  • Ten Years of Freakonomics Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    14 May 2015 | 8:40 am
    [MUSIC: Matthew Tishler, “Two of a Kind” (from Radio Hits Stephen J. DUBNER: You rolling? Suzie Lechtenberg: Yeah. DUBNER: Hey, Levitt. Steven LEVITT: Dubner. DUBNER: You nervous? LEVITT: No, I’m not nervous. We’ve done this before. DUBNER: What have we – what have we done before? LEVITT: We’ve gone on stage together with a moderator who has the fate of this show in her hands. DUBNER: Um, tell the people where we are, what we are doing and why. LEVITT: We are at the 92nd Street Y in New York City. And we are bringing our new book When to Rob a Bank into the public spectacle.
  • Think Like a Child Rebroadcast Full Transcript

    Freakonomics
    13 May 2015 | 8:37 am
    [MUSIC: Kero One, “I Never Thought That We” (from Early Believers Hello podcast listeners … this is Stephen Dubner … on May 5, Steve Levitt and I are publishing a new book, called When to Rob a Bank … and 131 Other Warped Suggestions and Well-Intended Rants. It is, how shall I say this … the best book in the history of the printed word. I can’t promise there wasn’t something better before Gutenberg but … well, my point is that you should probably read it. So find the pause button on this podcast, and go order When to Rob a Bank. Go ahead, I’ll wait … waiting, waiting,…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    interfluidity

  • There is a name for this

    Steve Randy Waldman
    30 Apr 2015 | 9:17 am
    I’m reading a lot of crap about riots in my hometown. Fuck you all and your firehose of useless, self-serving, careerist punditry, your giant spotlight that cares not a whit about all the things it pretends to illuminate but will blather with equal earnestness and concern about the next thing tomorrow just like it did about the last thing yesterday and hope to get paid or praised for it all. Fuck me for adding to the noise, I barely have the stomach for it anymore. I don’t live in Baltimore now. I’m writing this from Silicon Valley. Does that even count as being alive? I…
  • Tangles of pathology

    Steve Randy Waldman
    8 Apr 2015 | 12:09 am
    Trilemmas are always fun. Let’s do one. You may pick two, but no more than two, of the following: Liberalism Inequality Nonpathology By “liberalism”, I mean a social order in which people are free to do as they please and live as they wish, in which everyone is formally enfranchised by a political process justified in terms of consent of the governed and equality of opportunity. By “inequality”, I mean high dispersion of economic outcomes between individuals over full lifetimes. [1] By “nonpathology”, I mean the absence of a sizable underclass within…
  • Surge!

    Steve Randy Waldman
    30 Dec 2014 | 2:23 pm
    So-called “surge pricing” is not the main thing to worry about with Uber. Investors who value the ethically challenged firm at an astonishing $40B have made a cynical (also ethically challenged) bet that “network effects” will permit the firm to basically own the 21st century successor to the taxi industry. Our main concern should be to ensure investors do not win that bet. In particular, public policy should focus on encouraging “multihoming”, where drivers advertise availability over several competing platforms (Uber, Lyft, Sidecar, etc.) simultaneously.
  • Some thoughts on QE

    Steve Randy Waldman
    2 Nov 2014 | 1:28 am
    “Quantitative Easing” — economics jargon for central banks issuing a fixed quantity of base money to buy some stuff — has been much in the news this week. On Wednesday, US Federal Reserve completed a gradual “taper” of its program to exchange new base money for US government and agency debt. Two days later, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly expanded its QE program, to the dramatic approval of equity markets. I have long been of two minds regarding QE. On the one hand, I think most of the developed world has fallen into a “hard money” trap, in which…
  • Rational regret

    Steve Randy Waldman
    28 Oct 2014 | 6:05 am
    Suppose that you have a career choice to make: There is a “safe bet” available to you, which will yield a discounted lifetime income of $1,000,000. Alternatively, there is a risky bet, which will yield a discounted lifetime income of $100,000,000 with 10% probability, or a $200,000 lifetime income with 90% probability. The expected value of Option 1 is $1,000,000. The expected value of Option 2 is (0.1 × $100,000,000) + (0.9 × $200,000) = $10,180,000. For a rational, risk-neutral agent, Option 2 is the right choice by a long-shot. A sufficiently risk-averse agent, of…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Credit Writedowns

  • Are The IMF and the EU at Loggerheads Over Greece?

    Edward Hugh
    20 May 2015 | 5:02 am
    It is now clear that Greece’s economy has been going backwards over the last 6 months, and that it has once more fallen back into recession. Greek GDP fell by 0.4% in the last three month of 2014, and by a further 0.2% in the Jan – March 2015 period. As a result at the end of March Greek GDP was only 0.3% above the year-earlier level. This is a lot lower than expected in IMF forecasts, and – perhaps more importantly – well out of line with what is needed to maintain the 2022 debt sustainability targets on which continuing Fund support for Greek programmes depends. The most in-depth…
  • What multiple should we give China’s GDP growth?

    Michael Pettis
    18 May 2015 | 10:34 am
    By Michael Pettis Last week Derek Scissors, a think tank analysts at the American Enterprise Institute, published an articlein which he referred to an October, 2014, study by Credit Suisse that attempts to measure total household wealth by region and by country. Scissors argues that in the interminable debate about whether or not China will overtake the US as the […] The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. What multiple should we give China’s GDP growth? originally appeared on Credit Writedowns Links: RSS - Daily - Weekly - Twitter - Facebook - Contact…
  • How to dress for a rainy day (of low nominal investing returns)

    Niels Jensen
    13 May 2015 | 5:07 am
    A typical portfolio will almost certainly not deliver the required returns over the next decade. If ‘typical’ means a 60/40 approach, as already mentioned, then 2-4% annualised returns are what can realistically be expected. If ‘typical’ means an entry into alternative investment strategies but only mainstream alternatives such as equity long/short and nothing else, you will almost certainly also end up short of your own expectations. The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. How to dress for a rainy day (of low nominal investing returns) originally appeared…
  • The coming defaults of Greece

    Guest Author
    27 Apr 2015 | 4:47 am
    It seems that there will be no agreement between Greece and its Eurozone partners. Short of cash, the Greek government will have no choice but to suspend payment of its maturing debts. This column looks at what happens next. In brief, it will be very much up to the ECB to decide. The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. The coming defaults of Greece originally appeared on Credit Writedowns Links: RSS - Daily - Weekly - Twitter - Facebook - Contact Related posts: Some thoughts on Europe, most of them positive Predicting Europe’s endgame policy response…
  • Moral Hazard Taken Too Far

    Marc Chandler
    21 Apr 2015 | 7:02 am
    By Marc Chandler There is an element that links the terrible human tragedy in the Mediterranean and the ongoing Greek crisis.  It is Europe’s over-emphasis on moral hazard. Moral hazard is the idea that people will act irresponsibly if they do not have to bear the consequences.   No doubt, the concept offers valuable insight, up to a point.  The problem […] The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. Moral Hazard Taken Too Far originally appeared on Credit Writedowns Links: RSS - Daily - Weekly - Twitter - Facebook - Contact Related posts: Why the…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Liberty Street Economics

  • Why Are Interest Rates So Low?

    Blog Author
    20 May 2015 | 4:00 am
    Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, Matthew Cocci, Sara Shahanaghi, and Micah Smith Second post in the series In a recent series of blog posts, the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve System, Ben Bernanke, has asked the question: “Why are interest rates so low?” (See part 1, part 2, and part 3.) He refers, of course, to the fact that the U.S. government is able to borrow at an annualized rate of around 2 percent for ten years, or around 3 percent for thirty years. If you expect that inflation is going to be on average 2 percent over the next ten or thirty years, this implies that the U.S.
  • The FRBNY DSGE Model Forecast--April 2015

    Blog Author
    18 May 2015 | 4:00 am
    Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, Matthew Cocci, Sara Shahanaghi, and Micah Smith First in a two-part series There are various types of economic forecasts, such as judgmental forecasts or model-based forecasts. In this post, we provide an update of the economic forecasts implied by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s (FRBNY) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, which we introduced in a series of five blog posts in September 2014 here. It continues to predict a gradual recovery in economic activity with a progressive but slow return of inflation toward the Federal Open…
  • Just Released: The New York Fed Staff Forecast, May 2015

    Blog Author
    15 May 2015 | 7:30 am
    Jonathan McCarthy, Richard Peach, and Robert Rich Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) is hosting the spring meeting of its Economic Advisory Panel (EAP). As has become custom at this meeting, FRBNY staff are presenting their forecast for U.S. growth, inflation, and unemployment through the end of 2016. Following the presentation, members of the EAP, which consists of leading economists in academia and the private sector, are asked to discuss the staff forecast. Such feedback helps the staff evaluate the assumptions and reasoning underlying the forecast and the key risks to it.
  • The Class of 2015 Might Have a Little Better Luck Finding a Good Job

    Blog Author
    15 May 2015 | 4:00 am
    Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz With the college graduation season well under way, a new crop of freshly minted graduates is entering the job market and many bright young minds are hoping to land a good first job. It’s no wonder if they are approaching the job hunt with some trepidation. For a number of years now, recent college graduates have been struggling to find good jobs. However, the labor market for college graduates is improving. After declining for nearly two years, openings for jobs requiring a college degree have picked up since last summer. Not only has this increase in the…
  • Financial Innovation: Evolution of the Tri-Party Repo Arrangement

    Blog Author
    13 May 2015 | 4:00 am
    Antoine Martin and Susan McLaughlin Second in a two-part series In our earlier post, we described how the tri-party repo arrangement was a clever way to reduce the costs and risks that individual firms faced when settling bilateral repos. In this post, we explain how the efficiencies created by this new arrangement facilitated the growth of the repo market by expanding the class of securities to be used as collateral. This expansion had benefits as well as costs. On the positive side, it led to lower interest costs for a wide variety of borrowers in the real economy. But on the negative side,…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    The Incidental Economist

  • Stay calm and update priors as warranted

    Austin Frakt
    25 May 2015 | 8:41 am
    I want to flag something meta about my Upshot post today, in which I describe a study that suggests hospital productivity has increased in recent years (through 2011). The study findings surprised me. Based on prior work and history, I am highly skeptical hospitals can maintain the high productivity growth it suggests. Put another way, writing about the study by John Romley, Dana Goldman and Neeraj Sood the way I did was counter to confirmation bias. I’ve posted about the hospital—or health care—productivity problem many times on TIE, as I linked to in the piece. It would have…
  • Question of the day

    Austin Frakt
    23 May 2015 | 7:00 am
    Via StuffJournalistsLike: @afrakt
  • Healthcare Triage News: David Sackett

    Aaron Carroll
    22 May 2015 | 2:04 pm
    David Sackett passed away recently. We don’t usually do obituaries here, but this one seems appropriate. This is Healthcare Triage News. This was adapted from a piece I wrote for the AcademyHealth blog. All the references and links are there. @aaronecarroll
  • Christopher Ingraham is making my life easier

    Aaron Carroll
    22 May 2015 | 6:31 am
    I’m giving him full credit right up there in the title. Twice in the last two weeks I was all riled up and feeling the need to blast out posts on how everyone needed to stop freaking out and pay attention to real risks and not the scream du jour. But  before I could even get to it, there was Christopher Ingraham in the Washington Post, doing it for me. First up was the horrific train accident on the East Coast. Let’s acknowledge that it’s a horrible tragedy, ok? It’s also totally reasonable that it captured our attention. I can’t even fault people for being…
  • Wreck the RUC

    Nicholas Bagley
    22 May 2015 | 4:00 am
    Yesterday, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) released a withering report on how Medicare sets the fee schedule for paying physicians. The American Medical Association/Specialty Society Relative Value Scale Update Committee (RUC) has a process in place to regularly review Medicare physicians’ services’ work relative values (which reflect the time and intensity needed to perform a service). Its recommendations to [CMS], though, may not be accurate due to process and data-related weaknesses. First, the RUC’s process for developing relative value recommendations relies on the input…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    LewRockwell

  • Grilling Red Meat

    No Author
    24 May 2015 | 10:01 pm
    There’s no better way to cook meat, in my opinion, than outdoors over a charcoal grill. (Is there a better way to cook anything? Soup, I suppose, is better handled differently.) Lots of people act weird at a barbecue, though – lots of men, I should say, as the behavior I’m about to describe is particularly male. Something about red meat on a grill brings out the worst, most domineering, blow-hard, control-freak qualities in certain men. You know the stereotype: a Flintstonesque fellow, standing front-and-center at the Weber with a spatula in one hand and a massive set of tongs in the…
  • The US Created ISIS

    Tyler Durden
    24 May 2015 | 10:01 pm
    From the first sudden, and quite dramatic, appearance of the fanatical Islamic group known as ISIS which was largely unheard of until a year ago, on the world’s stage and which promptly replaced the worn out and tired al Qaeda as the world’s terrorist bogeyman, we suggested that the “straight to beheading YouTube clip” purpose behind the Saudi Arabia-funded Islamic State was a simple one: use the Jihadists as the vehicle of choice to achieve a political goal: depose of Syria’s president Assad, who for years has stood in the way of a critical Qatari natural gas…
  • Government Debt Lunacy

    No Author
    24 May 2015 | 10:01 pm
    Over the past few years, many experts have been warning of a crisis heading our way. More specifically, the concerns have centered on the inevitable collapse of the U.S. dollar. One of these individuals is former Congressman Ron Paul, who has stated that he believes the U.S. financial system is on the road to disaster. In this article, I’ll share some of his views and discuss what could happen if such a crisis materialized. Currency Crisis According to Congressman Paul, a U.S. currency crisis is inevitable. At one point in the 1980s, while riding on Marine One with President Reagan, the…
  • Putin is Telling the Truth

    No Author
    24 May 2015 | 10:01 pm
    On April 26 Russia’s main national TV station, Rossiya 1, featured President Vladimir Putin in a documentary to the Russian people on the events of the recent period including the annexation of Crimea, the US coup d’etat in Ukraine, and the general state of relations with the United States and the EU. His words were frank. And in the middle of his remarks the Russian former KGB chief dropped a political bombshell that was known by Russian intelligence two decades ago. Putin stated bluntly that in his view the West would only be content in having a Russia weak, suffering and begging from…
  • Criminal Disaster in the Middle East

    Patrick J. Buchanan
    24 May 2015 | 10:01 pm
    The fall of Ramadi, capital of Anbar, largest province in Iraq, after a rout of the Iraqi army by a few hundred ISIS fighters using bomb-laden trucks, represents a stunning setback for U.S. policy. When President Obama declared that we shall “degrade and defeat” the Islamic State, he willed the ends, but not the means. The retreat from Ramadi makes clear that the Iraqi army, even backed by 3,000 U.S. troops, cannot drive ISIS out of Anbar and Mosul and back into Syria. Baghdad cannot alone reunite Iraq. Republicans are almost gleeful in charging that Obama’s withdrawal of…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Macro and Other Market Musings

  • Why the Fed Will Raise Interest Rates This Year

    30 Apr 2015 | 4:45 pm
    Despite the apparent slow down of economic activity during the first quarter of this year, it is likely the Fed will still have to raise interest rates in the near future. This reason why is that households are increasingly expecting their nominal incomes to rise and this typically leads actual wage and salary growth. This can be seen in the figures below.The first figure shows households' expected nominal income growth over the next year. It comes from the University of Michigan/Thompson Reuters Survey of Consumers where households are asked each month how much their dollar (i.e.
  • About that Dual Mandate...

    28 Apr 2015 | 8:59 pm
    George Selgin says we should do away with it:The Federal Open Market Committee is in a pickle. After its last meeting, it suggested that it would soon start raising interest rates as a way to head off inflation. Recent inflation numbers, showing an uptick in the core inflation rate, make that step seem as necessary as ever.But disappointing growth projections, along with the dollar's international appreciation, are giving committee members cold feet.The FOMC's dilemma is rooted in the Fed's so-called "dual mandate," calling for it to achieve both "maximum employment" and "stable prices."…
  • A Partial Solution to Income Inequality

    27 Apr 2015 | 4:17 pm
    I want to come back to one of the points from my last post. There I noted the global economy was hit by a series of large positive supply shocks beginning in the mid-1990s: the rapid advances in technology and the opening up of Asia. The former raised productivity while the latter increased the world's labor supply. Both pushed up the return to capital and put downward pressure on global inflation. This run of positive supply shocks continued into the 2000s--productivity growth peaked between 2002 and 2004--but was interrupted by the Great Recession. It now appears to be returning to…
  • Was Monetary Policy Loose During the Housing Boom?

    22 Apr 2015 | 2:09 am
    Did the Fed's set its policy interest rate rate below the market-clearing or 'natural' interest rate level in the early-to-mid 2000s? Or did it simply lower its policy interest rate down to a depressed natural interest rate level during this time? The answers to these questions determine whether U.S. monetary policy was loose during the housing boom. John Taylor believes the Fed pushed interest rates below their natural interest rate level. He views this departure from a neutral stance as a key contributor to the housing boom. Ben Bernanke and Larry Summers believe otherwise. They see…
  • It Takes A Regime Shift to Raise an Economy

    17 Apr 2015 | 1:24 pm
    This week we learned that Ben Bernanke does not view NGDP level targeting, price level targeting, or a higher inflation target as the best way to deal with the zero lower bound (ZLB) problem. Now I believe the "what to do at the ZLB" debate is becoming moot as the U.S. economy improves, but it is interesting to consider Bernanke's thoughts on these alternative approaches to monetary policy. Here he is questioning their usefulness at the ZLB relative to his preferred approach: The second possible direction of change for the monetary policy framework would be to keep the targets-based approach…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    niesr.ac.uk

  • UK Finance and the EU

    HeatherRolfe
    26 May 2015 | 12:53 am
    It is often said that a camel is a horse designed by committee. Their humps and famous bad tempers are supposed to reflect the inconsistent compromises often made on committees. With financial services the compromises may be less obvious than camels’ humps, but the consequences can be much more serious.
  • Welfare savings and incapacity benefits

    JonathanPortes
    16 Apr 2015 | 12:07 am
    It has been clear for some time that the Conservatives’ plans to achieve a budget surplus in the next  Parliament – regarded with considerable scepticism by most informed observers, from the IMF to the vast majority of leading UK macroeconomists – was dependent on large cuts to spending on working age social security benefits, only a small fraction of which the Conservatives were willing to specify in advance of the election.
  • Migration, growth and jobs: a positive agenda

    JonathanPortes
    30 Mar 2015 | 6:22 am
    This article was originally written for the Recruitment and Employment Confederation's e-book "Building the Best Jobs Market in the World: the Expert View", and is reproduced with permission.
  • A troubling attitude to statistics

    JonathanPortes
    15 Mar 2015 | 2:34 am
    Last week, a government press release  trumpeting the success of the “Troubled Families Programme” (TFP) claimed: More than 105,000 troubled families turned around saving taxpayers an estimated £1.2 billion
  • Welfare reform: a plea for better journalism

    JonathanPortes
    9 Mar 2015 | 3:23 am
    I was at an excellent event last week organised by the Alliance for Useful Evidence entitled "Stats, Facts and Evidence: what role for evidence in the General Election and beyond."    In discussion, I made the point that it was inevitable, whether we like it or not, that politicians would seek to present the evidence in the best possible light, occasionally to the point of misrepresenting it; but that journalists didn't have to go along with thi
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Bruegel - Latest Updates

  • The residual seasonality puzzle

    26 May 2015 | 12:50 am
    What’s at stake: While seasonal adjustment is generally considered uninteresting, the repetition of low first quarter GDP releases since 2010 has led many to wonder if a predictable seasonal pattern remains in the published data. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis is investigating the issue and will report on its findings in July. Jeffrey Miron and Joseph Beaulieu write that traditionally macroeconomists regarded seasonal fluctuations as inherently uninteresting. Economists at S.F. Fed write that the raison d’être of seasonal adjustment is to remove fluctuations in economic data that…
  • Corruptionomics in Italy

    22 May 2015 | 1:29 am
    In line with its National Reform Programme for the period 2015-16, Matteo Renzi’s government obtained parliament’s approval on a new anti-corruption law on May 21. We document the sheer size of corruption in Italy and argue that tackling it is not only a matter of fairness, but also crucial to boost the country’s potential output after three years of recession and almost two decades of stagnation. Experience from past success cases suggests that only forceful and comprehensive actions will succeed in bringing corruption under control. The problem of corruption[1] in Italy is real and…
  • “Dura Lex, sed Lex”(?)

    22 May 2015 | 1:07 am
    On the 30th of April, the Italian Constitutional Court issued a decision on the pension reform introduced by the Monti government in 2011. The decision has potentially important implications for public finances, and sends also longer-reaching philosophical messages. The Italian Constitutional Court said that one article in the pension reform law approved by the Monti government at the height of the crisis, is illegitimate. This article introduced a temporary block for 2012 and 2013 to pension indexation, for all entitlements above three times the minimum (i.e. all pensions about 1450 euro and…
  • European leaders want the UK to stay, but are best friends forever?

    21 May 2015 | 9:09 am
    The Conservative Party’s election victory leaves little doubt as to the holding of a referendum on continued British EU membership in 2016 or 2017. While the official content of British demands remains vague at the moment, the reaction of Britain’s partners to the prospect of negotiations is made public every day. German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble has just declared that he is ready to open talks with the UK about demands to rewrite the rules of Britain’s EU membership. Although more cautious in other public appearances, German chancellor Angela Merkel had made similar comments…
  • How can development banks best support growth in Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe?

    21 May 2015 | 6:01 am
    Bruegel is pleased to welcome the vice-presidents of the European Investment Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank, together with guests from the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies for a discussion of the three development banks' recent Joint IFIs Action Plan (JIAP) in Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe (CESEE). As the financial crisis became a longer recession, it was soon clear that CESEE was especially vulnerable. More than a decade of convergence with the richer economies to the west was at risk, as sluggish export markets…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    TaxVox

  • Robbing Peter to Pay Paul

    Renu Zaretsky
    22 May 2015 | 5:00 am
    Congress will be in recess next week. The Daily Deduction will post on Tuesday, May 26, 2015, after Memorial Day, and will return to its regular schedule on Monday, June 1. Wisconsin’s GOP: Tax bikes to pay for bike paths, use tax dollars to expand private schools. Presidential hopeful Governor Scott Walker’s colleagues proposed this week to repeal the state’s Complete Streets program, which includes bike and pedestrian lanes in transportation projects. Wisconsin’s Legislative Fiscal Bureau says repeal would save $190,500 a year, and that the GOP’s replacement, a proposed $25 bike…
  • Rewarding Work, Paying by the Mile, a Windfall, and… Tax Magic 


    Renu Zaretsky
    21 May 2015 | 5:00 am
    Redesign the EITC to help more low-income workers. TPC’s Elaine Maag thinks that’s the way to go. She explains in her new paper: “A worker credit based on individual earnings, and not contingent on having children at home, could provide substantial benefits to all low-income workers, ease administration for the IRS, and encourage work for childless individuals and secondary earners. A broadly available $1,500 credit would cost around $870 billion over 10 years.” Bay State Senate D’s would freeze the state’s income tax rate and increase its EITC. The Massachusetts Senate began…
  • A Redesigned Earned Income Tax Credit Could Encourage Work by Childless Adults

    Elaine Maag
    20 May 2015 | 1:17 pm
    The earned income tax credit (EITC) lifts millions of working families out of poverty, but provides little support to workers without children and some low-wage workers married to other low-wage workers. Congress could fix this flaw by scaling back the EITC and creating a new worker credit that is based on individual earnings and not contingent on having children at home. A worker credit could provide substantial benefits to all low-income workers, could encourage childless individuals and secondary earners to work, and avoid large marriage penalties. And it would be easier for the IRS to…
  • A Down Payment, A Giveaway, A New Tax, and A Delay

    Renu Zaretsky
    20 May 2015 | 5:00 am
    Better something than nothing? House Ways & Means Chairman Paul Ryan has thrown in the towel on broad-based tax reform—at least for the next two years. He says the best possible deal the GOP can manage while President Obama is in office would be a “down payment” that would address international taxation and a permanent solution for certain expired tax breaks. Off the table: Lowering corporate rates or tying reform to the highway funding bill. Ryan also rules out raising the tax on carried interest, private equity’s favorite tax break, until 2017. Senator Bernie Sanders has a plan…
  • Are GOP Presidential Candidates Downplaying Tax Cuts Or Hiding The Ball?

    Howard Gleckman
    19 May 2015 | 11:51 am
    Last week, I blogged on the many GOP presidential candidates who are talking about tax reform rather than tax cuts. This week, tax historian Joe Thorndike published a rebuttal on the Tax Analysts blog and on Forbes.com. Joe, who is very much in the watch-what-they-do-not what-they-say (WWTDNWTS) camp, noted that while few GOP presidential hopefuls are talking about tax cuts, many of their proposals are, in fact tax cuts. Big ones, in fact. Joe is absolutely right. Indeed, I noted in my post that, based on what the candidates have told us so far, some of these reforms would add trillions of…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Eschaton

  • Holiday Over

    25 May 2015 | 6:49 pm
    Neighbors had a not typical (for them) very noisy party. Not complaining, people are allowed to do such things. And they brought it inside early, so yay good neighbors.
  • Evening Thread

    25 May 2015 | 3:24 pm
    I guess tomorrow is a real work day. :(
  • Afternoon Thread

    25 May 2015 | 11:16 am
    enjoy
  • Peons

    25 May 2015 | 8:38 am
    I've never used Uber, but I do call normal cabs sometimes. Usually I just go to the corner and hail them when I need one, but I'll call them for a guest or if luggage is involved. And when I do, I make sure to be on the lookout for when they come because I know it's really inconsiderate to make them wait.
  • Every Clown Car Member Gets The Love From The NYT

    25 May 2015 | 6:44 am
    Paragraph 8:While supporters in Iowa noted that she had doubled her standing in state polls, it was a statistically insignificant change from 1 percent to 2 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released May 6. (That may seem piddling, but the same poll had Mr. Santorum, who won the Iowa caucuses in 2012, also at 2 percent, while 5 percent supported Mr. Bush.)
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • An inundation of significance tests

    Andrew
    25 May 2015 | 7:18 am
    Jan Vanhove writes: The last three research papers I’ve read contained 51, 49 and 70 significance tests (counting conservatively), and to the extent that I’m able to see the forest for the trees, mostly poorly motivated ones. I wonder what the motivation behind this deluge of tests is. Is it wanton obfuscation (seems unlikely), a legalistic conception of what research papers are (i.e. ‘don’t blame us, we’ve run that test, too!’) or something else? Perhaps you know of some interesting paper that discusses this phenomenon? Or whether it has an established…
  • On deck this week

    Andrew
    25 May 2015 | 6:00 am
    Mon: An inundation of significance tests Tues: Stock, flow, and two smoking regressions Wed: What’s the worst joke you’ve ever heard? Thurs: Cracked.com > Huffington Post, Wall Street Journal, New York Times Fri: Measurement is part of design Sat: “17 Baby Names You Didn’t Know Were Totally Made Up” Sun: What to do to train to apply statistical models to political science and public policy issues The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
  • Chess + statistics + plagiarism, again!

    Andrew
    24 May 2015 | 6:23 am
    In response to this post (in which I noted that the Elo chess rating system is a static model which, paradoxically, is used to for the purposes of studying changes), Keith Knight writes: It’s notable that Glickman’s work is related to some research by Harry Joe at UBC, which in turn was inspired by data provided by Nathan Divinsky who was (wait for it) a co-author of one of your favourite plagiarists, Raymond Keene. In the 1980s, Keene and Divinsky wrote a book, Warriors of the Mind, which included an all-time ranking of the greatest chess players – it was actually Harry Joe…
  • Kaiser’s beef

    Andrew
    23 May 2015 | 7:35 am
    The Numbersense guy writes in: Have you seen this? It has one of your pet peeves… let’s draw some data-driven line in the categorical variable and show significance. To make it worse, he adds a final paragraph saying essentially this is just a silly exercise that I hastily put together and don’t take it seriously! Kaiser was pointing me to a news article by economist Justin Wolfers, entitled “Fewer Women Run Big Companies Than Men Named John.” Here’s what I wrote back to Kaiser: I took a look and it doesn’t seem so bad. Basically the sex difference is…
  • John Lott as possible template for future career of “Bruno” Lacour

    Andrew
    22 May 2015 | 11:33 am
    The recent story about the retracted paper on political persuasion reminded me of the last time that a politically loaded survey was discredited because the researcher couldn’t come up with the data. I’m referring to John Lott, the “economist, political commentator, and gun rights advocate” (in the words of Wikipedia) who is perhaps more well known on the internet by the name of Mary Rosh, an alter ego he created to respond to negative comments (among other things, Lott used the Rosh handle to refer to himself as “the best professor I ever had”). Again from…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    macroblog

  • Sales Flexing Muscle at More Firms

    macroblog
    18 May 2015 | 12:44 pm
    The news in this month's Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) report is that, in the aggregate, firms' unit sales levels continue to strengthen: Specifically, the survey question measures firms' perceptions of current unit sales levels relative to "normal times." This month, 70 percent of firms indicated their sales levels are at or above what they consider normal. Last November, that share was 61 percent, and one year ago, it was only 54 percent. We typically report the aggregate results in a diffusion index (see the chart), which also shows the overall progression toward "normal times" (a…
  • All Eyes on the Consumer

    macroblog
    7 May 2015 | 11:08 am
    It appears that the first quarter may have been even worse than we thought. The CNBC rapid update—consensus estimates from a panel of forecasters—registered a decline of 0.3 percent as of yesterday. Clearly, the year didn't start out so well, but here at the Atlanta Fed we have not yet lost faith. We are sticking to the narrative that 2015 will be another solid year of recovery. That said, our faith is not blind and, befitting data-dependent policymakers, we need to make some call about what it will take to shake our confidence. In a speech delivered yesterday (May 6) in Baton…
  • Signs of Strengthening Wage Growth?

    macroblog
    1 May 2015 | 8:05 am
    The average hourly earnings measure for the private sector, reported in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics's Establishment Survey, increased by a meager 2.1 percent in the first quarter (year over year). This increase was barely above the 2.0 percent pace observed in the fourth quarter of last year. However, Thursday's Employment Cost Index report showed a more sizable uptick in the wage and salary growth picture. Year-over-year growth in the first quarter was 2.5 percent, up from 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014. Another wage measure that we discussed in a February macroblog post…
  • What the Weather Wrought

    macroblog
    20 Apr 2015 | 2:27 pm
    At Seeking Alpha, Joseph Calhoun responds to Friday's macroblog post, which noted that, over the course of the recovery, first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth has on average been slower than the quarterly performance over the balance of the year: ... the "between-the-lines" meaning of the Atlanta post is to ignore all of this since this weakness is being portrayed as "just like last year" a statistical problem in the one measure that economists think most represents the economy. Rest assured, we try pretty hard to not place any messages "between the lines," and the penultimate…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Stumbling and Mumbling

  • Blair vs the Blairites

    chris
    22 May 2015 | 5:38 am
    One effect of growing old is that you get to see history being rewritten. So, I fear, it is with the description of Liz Kendall as being a Blairite because she rejects the idea that England has moved leftwards and supports Toryish policies such as free schools and spending 2% of GDP on defence. This is to do Blair a disservice. Blair's latter-day sucking up to billionaires and tyrants has caused some people to forget that he did not win elections merely because he copied Tory policies and moved to some nebulous "centre ground." His talent was greater than that. He succeeded in…
  • Pro-growth, anti-business

    chris
    21 May 2015 | 6:46 am
    David Clark writes: To abandon the search for a more equitable, productive and democratic economy out of a desire to appear “pro-business” would be a serious error. This hints at an under-appreciated possibility - that some pro-growth policies are not pro-business. What might these be? One obvious candidate would be some combination of less austerity, a serious jobs guarantee, a citizens basic income and stronger trades union rights all of which would strengthen workers' bargaining power. These would be "anti-business" in the sense Kalecki noted: they would undermine…
  • "Consistent with"

    chris
    20 May 2015 | 5:36 am
    In discussing Paul Romer's wonderful concept of mathiness*, Peter Dorman criticizes economists' habit of declaring a theory successful merely because it is "consistent with" the evidence. His point deserves emphasis. If a man has no money, this is "consistent with" the theory that he has given it away. But if in fact he has been robbed, that theory is grievously wrong. Mere consistency with the facts is not sufficient. This is a point which some defenders of inequality miss. Of course, you can devise theories which are "consistent with" inequality…
  • Voting against one's interests

    chris
    19 May 2015 | 6:30 am
    Many lefties have long believed that false consciousness causes some workers to vote against their own interests: I have some sympathy for this view. However, reading Dan Davies makes me suspect that it's not just workers who do this. He points out that the benefit cap could clobber the buy-to-let market and says: If anyone could be seen as a core Tory/UKIP voter, I would have thought that a small landlord in a southern coastal town would be. It’s not often that you see a government attacking its core supporters in this way. But it's not just BTL landlords who voted Tory even…
  • Labour's managerialist election

    chris
    16 May 2015 | 1:41 am
    Many of us believe that if Labour is to have a future, it must embrace decentralization and attack  managerialism. The very way in which the leadership election is beling conducted, however, suggests that managerialism remains entrenched. What I mean is that the election is bundling together two questions: what narrative/vision/message should the party have? And: who is best at winning the party votes? But these are separate questions. It's perfectly possible that the leader most capable of "connecting" with voters is not the one best able to formulate policy and vision. In…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Moneybox

  • Young Twentysomethings May Have a Leg Up in the 1099 Economy

    Alison Griswold
    22 May 2015 | 3:49 pm
    The more Uber and Uber-but-for services proliferate, the more people wonder: What do all these independent-contractor jobs mean for the economy? With an estimated 34 percent of the American workforce currently in freelance or independent contractor jobs and as many as 40 percent forecast to be in those jobs by 2020 according to Intuit, it’s an increasingly pressing question. And while there’ve been a few stabs at answering it—including one earlier this year by Uber, which unsurprisingly concluded that people like working for Uber—the truth is no one knows. A report released this week…
  • Almost Half of America's Biggest Cities Are Basically Built Like Giant Suburbs

    Jordan Weissmann
    22 May 2015 | 1:15 pm
    The word city may conjure up the image of a dense urban space full of street life and people willing to pack themselves like tinned fish into subway cars for their morning commute. But in the real world, a city is just a set of political boundaries. And often, what's inside those lines looks all but indistinguishable from a suburb, from cul de sacs to roomy houses to lots and lots of highways. If you've ever driven around a place like Phoenix or Austin—or lived basically anywhere outside the East Coast—you're well aware of this. Recently, Jed Kolko, chief economist at the real…
  • eBay Joins the Turf War for Amazon Prime Subscribers With Its Own Loyalty Program

    Alison Griswold
    22 May 2015 | 11:24 am
    Last week it was Walmart getting into subscription delivery to ostensibly take on Amazon Prime; this week it’s eBay. The company is piloting a loyalty program in Germany that gives members benefits on shipping and returns, one which it plans to introduce there more widely in the second half of the year. A Web page advertising the program, to be called eBay+, doesn’t offer specifics on cost, but it’s been reported that the annual fee could be around €15 to €20, or about $17 to $22. That would make eBay’s loyalty offering among the cheapest out there. Amazon Prime—which comes…
  • Austin, Texas, Is Blowing Away Every Other Big City in Population Growth

    Jordan Weissmann
    21 May 2015 | 12:10 pm
    Austin, Texas, keeps tearing along as the fastest growing big city in the country. According to census figures released today, its population shot up 2.9 percent during the 12 months that end in July of 2014. Among the 50 largest American cities (and to be clear, these figures are for cities proper, not their wider metro areas), the next closest on the list was Denver, which managed 2.4 percent growth. Which is to say, no other major city even came close to Austin's pace of expansion, much as has been the case ever since the recession ended. Three quick takeaways after the graph: Americans…
  • How a Danish Company Is Helping People With Autism Get Jobs in IT and Tech

    Zoe Henry
    21 May 2015 | 11:42 am
    This post originally appeared in Inc. William Hughes is a marketing intern at Towers Watson. Hughes holds a master’s degree in political science from Stony Brook, which he received in 2013, as well as a bachelor's degree from Hunter College. He also has autism.   "We're highly talented individuals. We may not see things the same way as a neurotypical person, but we will get to where we're going," the 48-year-old Hughes said The fact that Hughes is employed—let alone by the largest human resources consulting firm in the world—makes him an…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Economics for Breakfast

  • Grapefruit Universe: A Series on Exploded Systems and Dynamic Change

    benefieldhope
    14 May 2015 | 10:10 pm
    Physicists have postulated that the universe was once the size of a grapefruit. During the inflationary epoch (10^-36 to 10^-32 seconds) of the Big Bang, the separation of the strong nuclear force triggered a rapid cosmic inflation (yeah, not the economic kind). During a tiny fraction of a second the universe expanded (by a factor of 10^26) to the size of a grapefruit–a traditional breakfast meal. Why am I discussing physics and the origins of the universe? Many economists have drawn useful parallels between their field and the physical sciences. The comparison is illustrative,…
  • Breakfast with Jimmy the Robot

    benefieldhope
    24 Jun 2014 | 11:45 pm
    Intel is looking to break down barriers-to-entry that often keep a fair amount of innovators out of the robo-market. Jimmy is the first bot to come out of the 21st Century Robot Project. He’s about knee-high and walks like a champ. The Boiling Pot—Positive Spillover from Ideas Where does economics come in? Innovation is a driver of long-term, sustainable growth. Paul Romer gives this equation for aggregate production: Y = AK^α+ß L^1-α Y is total output A is ideas or total factor productivity K is capital L is labor Basically, you can increase machines and factories and workers, but…
  • Diminishing Marginal Utility–Economics Breakfast Buffet

    benefieldhope
    11 Jun 2014 | 12:09 am
    Bacon, Bacon Sandwich, Bacon-Egg-and-Cheese Sandwich, Bagel, Bananas, Bear Claw, Biscuits and Gravy All You Can Eat? Buffet restaurant owners would not make the promise of unlimited food if they weren’t going to make a profit. The simple truth is, they know a secret. A secret that’s hardly a secret at all, but it’s often overlooked when we see mountains of food laid out before us. What’s the secret? We Can’t Eat It All Buffets entice customers with the “All You Can Eat” slogan, knowing all too well that each additional plate of food provides less utility than the plate before.
  • The Best Part of Waking Up…Coffee Shortages?

    benefieldhope
    3 Jun 2014 | 11:38 pm
    Starbucks Reserve® Brazil Bourbon Rio Verde coffee comes from a paradise of mountains, waterfalls, native forests and ocean breezes. With more than 1,000 inches of rain per year, this area has a phenomenal micro-climate for specialty coffee. “Brazilian coffees are loved by roasters around the world for their natural nutty sweetness and chocolate body, providing exceptional flavors for espresso beverages.” —Leslie Wolford, coffee specialist The Best Part of Waking Up For some, specialty coffee is a must—it’s the best part of waking up in the morning. For others, specialty coffee is…
  • Food Critic: Refine Your Tastebuds with Econ in the Morning

    benefieldhope
    28 May 2014 | 12:45 am
    Isn’t One of the Great Joys of Life… waking up to a breakfast prepared for champions—Economics? To enjoy such splendor, it’s necessary to refine your taste for the finer things. One does not become an economic foodie in one sitting, but I have a five star establishment—the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis—that will help you learn the fundamentals of economics and personal finance with enjoyable online courses, podcasts, and videos. And That’s Not All Teachers, check out the lesson plans—for all learners: elementary, middle school, high school, college, and adults. All of the…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Economic Development Blog » Economic Development Blog -

  • Trust Belt Economic Development Conference Draws Midwest Leaders to Columbus, Ohio

    Economic Development HQ.com
    25 May 2015 | 11:42 pm
    The inaugural Trust Belt Conference is scheduled to kick off in Columbus, OH from May 31 to June 3, 2015. Columbus, OH (photo – Sam Howzit/flickr) The Trust Belt Conference is sponsored by Columbus region economic development organization Columbus 2020, and is organized by Conway Data, publisher of Site Selection magazine. Trust Belt will bring together hundreds of CEOs, governors, mayors, university presidents, economic development leaders, site selection consultants and community leaders from across the Midwest to discuss best practices and share their growth strategies. Kenny…
  • Michigan House Committee Hearing on Bills to Divert Economic Development Funding for Roads

    Economic Development HQ.com
    25 May 2015 | 10:37 pm
    A new Michigan House Committee on Roads and Economic Development is scheduled to hold a hearing and hear testimony on some high-profile bills that are opposed by economic development and business groups in the state. Pure Michigan (photo – PunkToad/flickr) The bills (HB 4607 and HB 4608) seek to divert $135 million in funding that is currently allocated to the 21st Century Jobs Fund and the Michigan Economic Development Corporation. The MI House Committee on Roads and Economic Development was created earlier this month as part of an effort to assist a 12-bill road funding plan introduced by…
  • Memorial Day Economic Development Initiatives for Veterans

    Economic Development HQ.com
    25 May 2015 | 8:19 am
    Every year, a whole bunch of new economic development programs that aim to assist veterans are announced on or just before Memorial Day. Here’s a summary of the major programs announced or launched this year. Vet Center (photo – elizaIO/flickr) The biggest announcement was from Walmart, if only for the stunning scope of their hiring spree. Walmart upped its projections for hiring veterans from 100,000 by 2018 to 250,000 by the end of 2020. Walmart furthermore expanded the scope of its Veterans Welcome Home Commitment to guarantee a job offer for any eligible U.S. veteran honorably…
  • Minnesota Economic Development Workers Face Layoff Over Jobs Bill

    Economic Development HQ.com
    25 May 2015 | 2:42 am
    Governor Mark Dayton’s veto of a jobs and energy bill has raised the possibility that Minnesota’s non-essential economic development workers could be asked to stay home if an agreement is not reached soon. Minnesota State Capitol (photo – Jonathunder/wikimedia) Over the weekend, the Governor vetoed Chapter 80, HF 1437. This is an omnibus jobs and energy bill that appropriates money for state agencies involved with Minnesota economic development, workforce development, labor and industry, commerce, housing, and energy. The bill was sent to the Governor for his signature after…
  • Rutgers Gets $500K Economic Development Planning Grant for New Brunswick, NJ Innovation Park

    Economic Development HQ.com
    24 May 2015 | 11:13 pm
    U.S. Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Economic Development Jay Williams announced $5 million in Science and Research Park Development Grants for 12 recipients under the Regional Innovation Strategies program. Rutgers (photo – slgckgc/flickr) The RIS program grants are run by the U.S. Economic Development Administration’s Office of Innovation and Entrepreneurship. Asst. Sec. Williams announced the grant awards at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey. Rutgers is getting a $500,000 grant for developing an implementation strategy and business plan for the Innovation…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Washington Center for Equitable Growth

  • Monday Smackdown Watch: Robert Waldmann Defends Janet Yellen from Brad DeLong

    Brad DeLong
    25 May 2015 | 8:29 am
    Robert Waldmann: In Which I try to Defend Janet Yellen from Brad DeLong: “Fed Chair Janet Yellen said, among other things: For this reason, if the economy continues to improve as I expect, I think it will be appropriate at some point this year to take the initial step to raise the federal funds rate target and begin the process of normalizing monetary policy. To support taking this step, however, I will need to see continued improvement in labor market conditions, and I will need to be reasonably confident that inflation will move back to 2 percent over the medium term. After we begin…
  • Things to Read on the Morning of May 25, 2015

    Brad DeLong
    25 May 2015 | 7:53 am
    Must- and Should-Reads: Richard Thaler: Unless You Are Spock, Irrelevant Things Matter in Economic Behavior Social Credit! Mark Blyth, Eric Lonergan and Simon Wren-Lewis: Now the Bank of England needs to deliver QE for the people. We propose that the government legislates to empower the Bank with the ability to make payments directly to the household sector… Must-Read: Christopher L. Foote and Christopher F. Goetz (2005): The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime: Comment Must-Read: Nicholas Bagley: Wreck the RUC Must-Read: William Lazonick: Stock buybacks: From retain-and reinvest to…
  • Federal Reserve ??????????

    Brad DeLong
    22 May 2015 | 1:34 pm
    It seems to me that this is likely to be analytically wrong–or, at least, far from the optimal policy under any expections scenario: Janet Yellen: The Outlook for the Economy–May 22, 2015: “Given this economic outlook and the attendant uncertainty… …how is monetary policy likely to evolve over the next few years? Because of the substantial lags in the effects of monetary policy on the economy, we must make policy in a forward-looking manner. Delaying action to tighten monetary policy until employment and inflation are already back to our objectives would risk…
  • Four Ways in Which the World Has Surprised Me Over the Past Decade with Its Economics

    Brad DeLong
    22 May 2015 | 1:24 pm
    A good day yesterday at the University of California center in Sacramento, which is in the basement on K St. a couple of blocks away from the California state capital. 20 students, and then 100 for the lecture. (And I do not yet have the URL for the videotape.) I started out saying: I find my peers, as they age, become increasingly unwilling to mark their beliefs to market. They increasingly turn their smarts and their cleverness to rationalizing why they can still believe what they believed in their 20s. This is not wise. This is, in fact, very dumb. And this is boring. I said: I do not want…
  • Weekend reading

    Casey Schoeneberger
    22 May 2015 | 11:05 am
    This is a weekly post we publish on Fridays with links to articles we think anyone interested in equitable growth should be reading. We won’t be the first to share these articles, but we hope by taking a look back at the whole week we can put them in context. Links Emily Badger examines misconceptions about economic inequality and why what individuals don’t know may change how governments respond. [Washington Post] John Cassidy looks at how minimum wage increases may, once and for all, settle long-simmering debates within the economics profession and alter U.S. politics as we know it.
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Bankrate.com » Economics

  • The bipolar economy

    Mark Hamrick
    25 May 2015 | 3:05 am
    Economic reports have been up and down. Will this week bring any clarity?
  • Podcast: Pump prices and gym taxes

    Mark Hamrick
    25 May 2015 | 3:05 am
    In this podcast, hear about the outlook for gas prices and about taxes at the health club.
  • What’s in the Fed’s tea leaves?

    Mark Hamrick
    18 May 2015 | 3:05 am
    This week: key updates from the housing market and a fuller look at the Fed's thinking.
  • Podcast: Gas savings, house flipping

    Mark Hamrick
    18 May 2015 | 3:05 am
    What are you doing with all the money you're saving at the pump? And have you ever thought about flipping houses? Explore those topics in this week's podcast.
  • Retail’s repression

    Mark Hamrick
    13 May 2015 | 9:30 am
    The government's latest report shows U.S. retailers are still wondering where the shoppers have gone.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    FiveThirtyEight » Economics | FiveThirtyEight

  • How Suburban Are Big American Cities?

    Jed Kolko
    21 May 2015 | 3:39 am
    What, exactly, is a city? Technically, cities are legal designations that, under state laws, have specific public powers and functions. But many of the largest American cities — especially in the South and West — don’t feel like cities, at least not in the high-rise-and-subways, “Sesame Street” sense. Large swaths of many big cities are residential neighborhoods of single-family homes, as car-dependent as any suburb.Cities like Austin and Fort Worth in Texas and Charlotte, North Carolina, are big and growing quickly, but largely suburban. According to Census Bureau…
  • IUDs Are More Affordable Than Ever, So Will More Women Get Them?

    Madeleine Schwartz
    11 May 2015 | 3:29 am
    Six years ago, Karen Clayton, a manager at a hospital in Chicago, thought about getting an IUD. She had had bad reactions to hormonal birth control in the past and had decided to stop using it, but she had recently entered a new relationship and was under the impression that her insurance would cover ParaGard, a copper IUD that does not release hormones. When she went to the doctor’s office, however, she was told that the device would actually cost $300 or $400, she recalls — more than she could afford at the time.One month later, Clayton found out she was pregnant. She returned to…
  • Where’s The Beef?

    Eric Benson
    7 May 2015 | 4:13 am
    Every December, the ranching staff at a Texas Panhandle dairy farm owned by the Braum’s burgers-and-ice-cream chain conducts an audit of its cattle herd. Most years, the audit is nothing more than a bland bookkeeping exercise, the i-dotting and t-crossing of maintaining a 38-square-mile ranch on the Texas-Oklahoma border. But last year, as Braum’s auditors began to count their herd, they quickly realized something was amiss. Over the next two months, the Braum’s staff checked and re-checked their ledgers. They talked with neighbors at nearby ranches to ask if they’d seen anything…
  • But First, A Word From 100 Podcasts’ Sponsors

    Stan Alcorn
    1 May 2015 | 7:37 am
    This story was produced in collaboration with MarketplaceIf you spent the beginning of February listening to the latest episode of each of the top 100 shows on the iTunes “top podcasts” chart, you’d have heard “Stone Cold” Steve Austin talk about the best way to deliver flowers. You’d have heard the Freakonomics crew spend 10 seconds telling you it was brought to you by Goldman Sachs. And you’d have heard 18 different voices give 30 different spiels for a website that helps people build websites.We know because we did it. FiveThirtyEight data-reporter intern Hayley Munguia spent…
  • The Most Diverse Cities Are Often The Most Segregated

    Nate Silver
    1 May 2015 | 5:28 am
    When I was a freshman at the University of Chicago in 1996, I heard the same thing again and again: Do not leave the boundaries of Hyde Park. Do not go north of 47th Street. Do not go south of 61st Street. Do not go west of Cottage Grove Avenue. 7These boundaries were fairly explicit, almost to the point of being an official university policy. The campus police department was not committed to protecting students beyond the area,8 and the campus safety brochure advised students not to use the “El” train stops just a couple of blocks beyond them unless “traveling in groups and…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Vox - All

  • It's time we have a holiday to honor those who try to stop wars too

    Dylan Matthews
    25 May 2015 | 1:00 pm
    Memorial Day and Veteran's Day often get equated, but there is an essential distinction between the two. Veteran's Day honors all who have served the American military in wars. Memorial Day honors those who've perished. It's an annual reminder that wars have grave human costs, which must be both recognized and minimized. Those costs are not inevitable. We ought to also set aside time to remember those throughout American history who have tried hardest to reduce them, to prevent unnecessary loss of life both American and foreign: war resisters. War resistors can be heroes Eugene V. Debs, who…
  • These vintage ads touted gluten as an amazing superfood

    Phil Edwards
    25 May 2015 | 8:40 am
    These days, most foods don't go out of their way to advertise their high gluten content. But in many old ads, it was a selling point. This ad from 1905 for Pillsbury flour is typical — beneath a bizarre reference to Chinese customs, you'll find the boast that "the gluten and phosphates of the best wheat are retained by the Pillsbury Process." New York Tribune/Library of Congress Don't worry — plenty of gluten here! During World War I, Pillsbury bragged about all the "nourishing" gluten in its flour — part of a serious wartime effort to keep kids healthy. Richmond Times-Dispatch/Library…
  • 6 maps and charts that explain sex around the world

    Zack Beauchamp
    25 May 2015 | 8:16 am
    People around the world are having sex. Right now. These maps and charts tell you how they're doing it. The data comes from two surveys done by Durex, the condom folks. Their Sexual Wellbeing Survey (from 2007/2008) and Face of Global Sex (2012) are methodologically rigorous. A polling firm, Harris Interactive, set up large sample size online polls designed to capture a representative sample of heterosexual sex-havers from a number of countries around the world. For reports designed principally with Durex's corporate interests in mind, they're pretty well done. The data also reveals…
  • The White House has released enough Benghazi documents to cover half a football field

    Christophe Haubursin
    25 May 2015 | 8:06 am
    The State Department turned over 900 pages of Hillary Clinton's private emails Friday to a House special committee investigating the Benghazi attacks of 2011. The documents join 40,000 pages the White House has handed over to Congress already. The volume is enormous. Benghazi documents would cover half of a football field. The volume of information produced by this case ends up giving comfort to both sides of the fight: Republicans believe a smoking gun must be hidden in reams of documents, while Democrats point to the continued demand for documents, given how much has been made…
  • Game of Thrones' version of justice involves heaping punishment on those who deserve it

    Todd VanDerWerff
    25 May 2015 | 8:00 am
    Every week, a handful of Vox's writers will discuss the latest episode of Game of Thrones. Check out the recap for this episode here, and follow the whole discussion here. This week, we'll be hearing from culture editor Todd VanDerWerff, executive editor Matthew Yglesias, and foreign policy writer Zack Beauchamp. Come back throughout the week for entries. Todd VanDerWerff: After last week's whiff of an episode, "The Gift" makes up for lost time, layering in lots and lots of scenes viewers have been waiting for. Cersei is arrested! Tyrion and Daenerys meet for the first time! Sam and Gilly…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Commentary - Money, Banking and Financial Markets

  • Regulatory quakes and tremors

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    18 May 2015 | 5:34 am
    If there were a regulatory Richter scale that measured the shaking of the financial system, the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act would register about 8, while the 2011 Basel III framework might be a bit above 7.  (For reference, the 1906 San Francisco earthquake was a 7.8). Fortunately, this shaking is mostly for the better – helping to make the financial system more resilient in the long run.The new “Bailout Prevention Act” of Senators Vitter and Warren also might be an 8 on the shaking scale, but it would be a true disaster, because it undermines the Fed’s role as crisis lender of last…
  • An Open Letter to Bill McNabb, CEO of Vanguard Group

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    11 May 2015 | 5:26 am
    Dear Mr. McNabb,We find your WSJ op-ed (Wednesday, May 6) misleading, short-sighted, self-serving, and very disappointing.Vanguard has been in the forefront of providing low-cost, reliable access to U.S. and global capital markets to millions of customers, including ourselves. Following the financial crisis of 2007-2009, the firm naturally should be a leader in promoting a more resilient financial system. Your op-ed sadly goes in the opposite direction.Let’s start with the most stunning example: your defense of money market mutual funds. MMMFs are simply banks masquerading as professionally…
  • Interview with Sheila Bair

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    7 May 2015 | 5:14 am
    Senior Advisor, Pew Charitable Trusts and Chairman, Systemic Risk Council; former Chairman, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Financial Institutions; former Commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Corporation; and former Counsel, Senate Majority Leader Robert Dole.Has the experience of the crisis changed your view of the central bank policy tool kit?Chairman Bair: It has made me more – not less – worried about the considerable power of the Fed. I am more concerned about how extensively their power has been used and could be used in…
  • Interview with Choong-soo Kim

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    6 May 2015 | 5:41 am
    Choong-soo Kim, James Joo-Jin Kim Visiting Professor of Korean Studies, University of Pennsylvania; former Governor, Bank of Korea.Has the experience of the crisis changed your view of the central bank policy tool kit?Governor Kim: The answer is yes, indeed. I say this from the perspective of a former Governor of the Bank of Korea. Until late 2011, the Bank had a single mandate: to maintain price stability. Following the global financial crisis, the National Assembly of the Republic of Korea revised the Bank of Korea Act by stipulating that, as the central bank works to secure the objective…
  • Not so fast

    Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz
    4 May 2015 | 6:39 am
    GE’s planned sale of its financial division – GE Capital – looks like a home run for systemic regulators. It adds to a string of recent announcements that big intermediaries are responding to improved financial oversight. Deutsche Bank’s decision to shrink its investment banking business and sell Postbank is another example, as is the more general pruning of oversized balance sheets elsewhere: UBS assets are now less than half the pre-crisis level.If the regulatory reforms in the United States and elsewhere really work to reduce systemic risk, the list of Systemically Important…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Republic 3.0

  • How to end gerrymandering

    Anne Kim
    22 May 2015 | 1:00 am
    Every state should have an independent redistricting commission, says Tennessee Congressman Jim Cooper. The post How to end gerrymandering appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • Education reform’s final chapter

    Pamela Konde
    20 May 2015 | 6:59 am
    The right approach means evidence-based strategies involving schools, students, parents, and communities working together. The post Education reform’s final chapter appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • The death of “reinventing government”?

    Anne Kim
    18 May 2015 | 10:08 am
    New research says "dismantlers" now have the upper hand. The post The death of “reinventing government”? appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • The worsening gap in higher education equality

    Louis Barbash
    12 May 2015 | 1:00 am
    Wealthy students are now eight times more likely than poorer students to earn a bachelor’s degree. K-12 reform could help even the odds. The post The worsening gap in higher education equality appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • French fries and free trade agreements

    Anne Kim
    11 May 2015 | 11:01 am
    Booming U.S. potato exports are an example of how free trade agreements can open markets for U.S. products - and fuel cultural trends abroad. The post French fries and free trade agreements appeared first on Republic 3.0.
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Principles of Economics and Business

  • Why Do Firms Need Growth?

    14 May 2015 | 10:32 am
    Growth is one of the most prominent business objectives of many firms. In recent years it has become almost self-evident that a company has to grow in order to be successful. No matter what firm or business, there always seems to be a need for further expansion. In other words, growth has become an imperative.Admittedly, this may not come as a surprise, considering we live in an economic system that builds on constant growth (see also Do We Really Need Economic Growth?). In that sense, companies would need to grow simply because they are a part of the system and all the others are doing…
  • Connecting Business and Economics

    30 Apr 2015 | 1:32 pm
    Business and economics are highly interrelated. At the end of the day one would not exist without the other. The success of any business depends on a variety of economic aspects and at the same time businesses essentially make up the economy.However despite this unquestionable connection, we often only hear about business or economics. In particular, many people fail to notice that in order to be successful in business it is  essential to have at least a basic level of economic understanding. Therefore we will look at how business and economics can be connected.Business…
  • The Price Elasticity of Supply

    13 Apr 2015 | 12:24 pm
    According to the law of supply and demand the quantity supplied of a good or service will generally decrease as its price falls. To see how strong this effect actually is, we can once again draw on the concept of elasticity. In particular, we use the price elasticity of supply.The most relevant supply side elasticity is the price elasticity of supply. It describes to what extent the quantity supplied of a good is affected by a change in its price. Not surprisingly, there are various factors that influence the elasticity so it seems reasonable to look at the most relevant determinants…
  • The Price Elasticity of Demand

    27 Mar 2015 | 9:55 am
    According to the law of supply and demand the quantity demanded of a good or service will generally increase if its price falls. To see how strong this effect actually is we use the concept of elasticity. More specifically, the price elasticity of demand.Depending on what we are analyzing there are different demand elasticities that can be considered (e.g. price elasticity, cross-prize elasticity, income elasticity). The most relevant of them is the price elasticity of demand which describes to what extent the quantity demanded of a good is affected by a change in its price. There are many…
  • Comparative Advantage and Trade

    12 Mar 2015 | 2:53 pm
    We live in a globalized world where virtually all countries interact and engage in trade. Most of them have various trade connections with a multitude of different countries. As a consequence, there is a significant amount of competition. This raises the question how smaller countries with relatively weak economies can still participate and benefit from global trade.To explain this we will look at the principle of comparative advantage, one of the most basic microeconomic concepts. Even though it is a rather simple concept, it will allow us to analyze some of the most fundamental processes…
 
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Innovative Advisory Group

  • The Real Estate Investor’s Guide: Using a Self-Directed IRA to Buy Real Estate

    Kirk Chisholm
    18 May 2015 | 8:27 am
    The Real Estate Investor’s Guide: Using a Self-Directed IRA to Buy Real Estate   “Every nickel I make gets put back into real estate.” This is what an investor told me my first week of working on Wall Street. At the time I didn't understand it, but this quote epitomizes the mind of the typical real estate investor. All they know is real estate, all they trust is real estate, and they are not remotely interested in any other type of investment. I get it. Real estate is a very attractive asset class. I discussed some of the reasons for this here, These Top 7 Powerful Tools Can…
  • Deflation – How a Mortgage Can Destroy Your Real Estate Wealth

    Kirk Chisholm
    11 May 2015 | 8:35 am
    Deflation – How a Mortgage Can Destroy Your Real Estate Wealth "Thus inflation is unjust and deflation is inexpedient. Of the two perhaps deflation is, if we rule out exaggerated inflations such as that of Germany, the worse; because it is worse, in an impoverished world, to provoke unemployment than to disappoint the rentier. But it is necessary that we should weigh one evil against the other. It is easier to agree that both are evils to be shunned."   - John Maynard Keynes This is the 3rd in a series of 4 posts about investing in real estate. The last post, Inflation - The Secret To…
  • Inflation Monitor – April 2015

    Kirk Chisholm
    1 May 2015 | 5:17 am
    Inflation Monitor – April 2015 Inflation Monitor Summary - Composite Ranking   * The Inflation Equilibrium is a quick summary for the whole data series of the inflation monitor. If you don't like statistics, this is the chart for you.   Inflation Monitor - April 2015 - Introduction Spring is finally here and with it comes the warm weather. Unfortunately the warm weather has not been able to thaw out deflation or the wintery economic chill that has gripped certain parts of the US economy and many European nations. The CPI continues to hit negative territory on an annual…
  • Inflation – The Secret to Building Wealth in Real Estate

    Kirk Chisholm
    20 Apr 2015 | 7:52 am
    Inflation – The Secret to Building Wealth in Real Estate   “The major fortunes in America have been made in land.”- John D. Rockefeller After more than 75 years John D. Rockefeller is still considered the richest man in history when you adjust for inflation. According to the New York Times as of 2007, his net worth reached $192 Billion. Compare this with Bill Gates whose fortune is only $82 Billion. This shows how enormous the fortune of John D Rockefeller actually was. Only Commodore Vanderbilt and John Astor have even come close with $143 Billion and $116 Billion. Rockefeller…
  • These Top 7 Powerful Tools Can Create Legacy Wealth from Real Estate

    Kirk Chisholm
    10 Apr 2015 | 8:00 am
    These Top 7 Powerful Tools Can Create Legacy Wealth from Real Estate “Buying real estate is not only the best way, the quickest way, the safest way, but the only way to become wealthy.”  - Marshall Field Marshall Field was an American Entrepreneur who lived in the 1800's. His quote was obviously made in an era before tech stocks, hedge funds and excess money printing by the Federal Reserve. However the principal of owning real estate to become wealthy still holds true. Real Estate is arguably the best asset class if you want to build enormous wealth. While you may have heard of real…
  • add this feed to my.Alltop

    Hoosier Econ

  • Full 2015 Indianapolis 500 Payout

    Hoosier Econ
    25 May 2015 | 7:30 pm
    Via Indycar.com – Full results 1. (15) Juan Pablo Montoya, Chevrolet, 200, Running, $2,449,055 2. (2) Will Power, Chevrolet, 200, Running, $792,555 3. (14) Charlie Kimball, Chevrolet, 200, Running, $564,055 4. (1) Scott Dixon, Chevrolet, 200, Running, $615,805 5. (17) Graham Rahal, Honda, 200, Running, $439.555 6. (8) Marco Andretti, Honda, 200, Running, $412,055 7. […]
  • Hoosier Econ Gives Thanks to Those Who Sacrificed

    Hoosier Econ
    25 May 2015 | 5:48 am
  • UPDATED 2015 Indianapolis 500 Winner Payout

    Hoosier Econ
    23 May 2015 | 9:00 am
    UPDATE 5/25/15 10:19 p.m. – Juan Pablo Montoya earned $2,449,055 from an overall purse of $13,397,315 for his victory May 24 in the 99th Running of the Indianapolis 500 Mile Race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. [5/23/2015] This Sunday will be the 99th race of the Indianapolis 500. The winner of the race will see a nice […]
  • 2015 Memorial Day Weekend Spending Graph

    Hoosier Econ
    21 May 2015 | 11:58 am
    Info graph via Goodshop.com
  • Industrial Food Stamp Complex

    Hoosier Econ
    21 May 2015 | 6:00 am
    Milton Friedman once said, “There’s no such thing as a free lunch” and the Government Accountability Office is proving this to be true. The GAO is reporting the federal government last year spent $100 Billion in food assistance programs. Giving people money to get food is now a big business for the food industry in America. […]
Log in